English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 21/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Do not lag in zeal, be ardent in spirit, serve the Lord. Rejoice in hope, be patient in suffering, persevere in prayer. Contribute to the needs of the saints; extend hospitality to strangers

Letter to the Romans 12/09-21/:"Let love be genuine; hate what is evil, hold fast to what is good; love one another with mutual affection; outdo one another in showing honour. Do not lag in zeal, be ardent in spirit, serve the Lord. Rejoice in hope, be patient in suffering, persevere in prayer. Contribute to the needs of the saints; extend hospitality to strangers. Bless those who persecute you; bless and do not curse them. Rejoice with those who rejoice, weep with those who weep. Live in harmony with one another; do not be haughty, but associate with the lowly; do not claim to be wiser than you are. Do not repay anyone evil for evil, but take thought for what is noble in the sight of all. If it is possible, so far as it depends on you, live peaceably with all. Beloved, never avenge yourselves, but leave room for the wrath of God; for it is written, ‘Vengeance is mine, I will repay, says the Lord.’ No, ‘if your enemies are hungry, feed them; if they are thirsty, give them something to drink; for by doing this you will heap burning coals on their heads.’Do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good."

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 20-21/2024
A Complete Disconnect Between the Conscience of the Majority of Druze and Their three political Leaders/Elias Bejjani/December 20/2024
Israeli army withdraws from Bani Hayyan, Lebanese Army deploys along Litani
Israeli army destroys homes and infrastructure in South Lebanon's Maroun El Ras and Yaroun
Three bodies recovered from Haret Hreik in Beirut's southern suburbs
Al-Jolani says new Syria to 'stand at equal distance' from all Lebanese
UN's Lebanon coordinator says 2025 offers reason for hope
Gunfire-hit car found after Israel nabs 3 men in south Lebanon
Syrians recover human remains from site used by Hezbollah and other Assad allies
New Warning From Adraee and Continued Israeli Operations in Naqoura
The untold toll of war: Search for missing Hezbollah fighters hindered by Israel's destruction
Berri Asserts Continuous Efforts to Elect President on Jan. 9
General J. Aoun to New Army Cadets: 'Your Mission Is Sacred'
MP Bilal Abdallah: We have yet to see the minimal efforts needed to prepare for January 9
PM Mikati discusses coordination with international partners on Lebanon's reconstruction
Beirut's Humiliating Street Names/Johnny Kortbawi/©This is Beirut/December 20, 2024
Sami Gemayel says won't take revenge or exclude Shiites as Lebanon 'rises again
Army chief Joseph Aoun: Jumblat's candidate and Gemayel's friend
Naim Qassem on Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon and about-face on Syria/David Daoud/FDD's Long War Journal/December 20/2024

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 20-21/2024
At least two dead, 68 injured after car drives into German Christmas market
German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said late last month that there were no concrete indications of a danger to Christmas markets this year, but that it was wise to be vigilant.
US scraps $10m bounty for arrest of Syria's new leader Sharaa
US diplomats meet representatives of Syria’s Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham in Damascus
US delegation meets with al-Jolani in Damascus
US airstrike kills ISIS leader in Syria: Officials
Unseen ‘Since the Nazis’: Syrians Uncover Mass Graves and Evidence of Assad Regime’s Atrocities
Turkey, Iran leaders meet at Muslim summit in Cairo
Erdogan says Turkey expects allies to pull support from Kurds in post-Assad Syria
What will Syria's future look like? The answer could lie in other Arab countries' recent pasts
Turkey and Russia engage in delicate maneuvers over Syria after Assad’s downfall
Israel media report accuses troops of indiscriminate killing of Gaza civilians
Israel's Netanyahu eyes Iran after triumphs over Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria/Samia Nakhoul/Reuters/December 20, 2024
Israeli airstrikes kill at least 25 Palestinians in Gaza, medics say
For thousands of Jews, Israel still doesn't feel safe after the Oct. 7 attacks. So they're leaving
Israel and Hamas appear close to a ceasefire deal. These are the sticking points/Samy Magdy And Tia Goldenberg/CAIRO (AP)/December 20, 2024
US says new Syria rulers helping in hunt for reporter Tice
Palestinians accuse Israeli settlers of West Bank mosque fire
UN extends peacekeeping mission between Syria, Israeli-occupied Golan Heights
Palestinian officials accuse Israeli settlers of mosque arson in West Bank
US charges Iran Guards captain in 2022 killing of American in Iraq
Trump Orders Europe to Buy More U.S. Oil and Gas—or Face Tariffs/Will Neal/The Daily Beast/December 20, 2024

Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on December 20-21/2024
The Crusades: ‘White Supremacist’ Ventures Defined by ‘Injustices and Unspeakable Tragedies’?/Raymond Ibrahim/The Stream/December 20/2024
Iranian Regime Mouthpiece 'Kayhan' Comes Out Against Turkish President Erdoğan 'Who Is Working To Revive The Ottoman Caliphate'/MEMRI/December 20, 2024
Unmasking The Religious Dimensions Of Hizbullah’s Decades Of Planning For An October 7-Style Invasion And Massacre Of Jews/By Steven Stalinsky, Ph.D/MEMRI/December 20, 2024
Somehow, Gaza’s suffering increased in 2024/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/December 20/2024
Taliban infighting adds to Afghanistan’s woes/Luke Coffey/Arab News/December 20/2024
Regional support crucial for Turkiye’s new Syria policy/Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/December 20/2024
Addressing AI’s bias from a humanistic perspective/Patrizia A. Ecker/Arab News/December 20/2024
How the International Community Can Best Help the Palestinians/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute./December 20, 2024

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 20-21/2024
A Complete Disconnect Between the Conscience of the Majority of Druze and Their three political Leaders
Elias Bejjani/December 20/2024
It is evident that the sovereign, patriotic, and brave Druze are on one path, while Jumblatt, Arslan, and Wahhab are on a completely different one, entirely disconnected from the conscience of their community.

Israeli army withdraws from Bani Hayyan, Lebanese Army deploys along Litani
Naharnet/December 20, 2024
Israeli army forces withdrew Friday from the southern town of Bani Hayyan two days after invading it, media reports said. The Israeli army withdrew from the town towards Markaba, after its forces carried out bulldozing and detonations of houses and roads.
The Bani Hayyan Municipality had said in a statement issued Thursday that contact was lost with an elderly woman who was inside the town during the Israeli forces' incursion. Her fate remains unknown. In addition, Israeli army forces carried out detonations in Naqoura, southern Lebanon. UNIFIL forces and the Lebanese Army meanwhile deployed Friday in the valleys located along the Litani River between Deir Siryan, Alman, al-Qusayr, Yohmor al-Shaqif and Zawtar al-Sharqiyeh, based on recommendations from the ceasefire supervision committee. According to reports, checkpoints and fixed points will be established for the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL at the entrances to the southern Litani sector and the banks of the Litani River from Marjayoun to al-Qasmiyeh.

Israeli army destroys homes and infrastructure in South Lebanon's Maroun El Ras and Yaroun
LBCI/December 20, 2024
On Friday afternoon, the Israeli army carried out demolitions in several villages in South Lebanon. Homes were destroyed in the towns of Maroun El Ras and Yaroun, located in the Bint Jbeil district, as well as parts of the border town of Naqoura.
The operation targeted residential buildings and key infrastructure in the affected areas, further escalating tensions along the border.

Three bodies recovered from Haret Hreik in Beirut's southern suburbs
LBCI/December 20, 2024
The National News Agency (NNA) reported Friday that three bodies have been recovered from under the rubble in Haret Hreik in Beirut's southern suburbs following Israel's war on Lebanon.

Al-Jolani says new Syria to 'stand at equal distance' from all Lebanese
Naharnet/December 20, 2024
The military leader of the Islamist-led rebels who ousted Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, who now prefers to use his real name Ahmad al-Sharaa, has reassured the Lebanese about the future of relations between the two countries. "Indeed the Lebanese brothers had a lot of concerns over our takeover of Damascus, thinking that that would strengthen one side against another in Lebanon. In fact we are not seeking any hegemony relation with the Lebanese neighbors, seeing as we have enough work to do in our country," al-Jolani said in an interview with Asharq al-Awsat newspaper. "We want a relation of respect and reciprocity and we don't want to interfere in Lebanese domestic affairs," he added. "We will stand at an equal distance from all Lebanese and what satisfies them will satisfy us," al-Jolani stated.

UN's Lebanon coordinator says 2025 offers reason for hope

Naharnet/December 20, 2024
United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert on Friday issued an end of year message for the Lebanese. “2024 was, to put it mildly, an exceptionally difficult year for Lebanon. Far too many lives were lost, devastated, and disrupted. The conflict (between Israel and Hezbollah), which inflicted untold suffering and trauma, also left great destruction. And certainly, the arduous process of healing, picking up the pieces, and rebuilding has only just begun,” Hennis-Plasschaert said. “While considerable work lies ahead to ensure that the ceasefire arrangement endures and yields the dividends of security and stability that the Lebanese people deserve, 2025 offers the promise of opportunity and reason for hope,” she added.“The United Nations has stood by Lebanon and its people through challenging times before and continues to do so now. On behalf of the entire U.N. family, I wish all Lebanese peace, good health, and greater prosperity in the New Year,” Hennis-Plasschaert went on to say.

Gunfire-hit car found after Israel nabs 3 men in south Lebanon
Naharnet/December 20, 2024
The car of 20-year-old man Mahdi Shammout was found Friday in the Wadi al-Hujeir area in south Lebanon after contact was lost with him on Thursday, al-Jadeed TV said. Five gunshot marks were found on the front of the car, a black BMW, al-Jadeed added. The abductees Ali Younes and Fouad Qataya were meanwhile in a white Toyota pickup that was found on the same road, the TV network said. A security source confirmed to al-Jadeed that the three men were abducted by the Israeli army.

Syrians recover human remains from site used by Hezbollah and other Assad allies
Associated Press/December 20, 2024
The Syrian Civil Defense group, known as the White Helmets, uncovered at least 21 corpses as well as incomplete human remains on Wednesday in the Sayyida Zeinab suburb of the capital Damascus. The discovery was made at a site previously used by Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iran-backed Iraqi militias, both allies of deposed President Bashar Assad during the country’s civil war. The site included a field kitchen, a drugstore and a morgue, according to Ammar al-Salmo, an official with the White Helmets, a volunteer organization that operated in areas that were controlled by the opposition. Rescue teams in white hazmat suits searched the site, located not far from the revered shrine of Sayyida Zeinab, the granddaughter of Prophet Mohammad. The remains were placed into black bags and loaded onto a truck as bystanders from the neighborhood looked on. “Some (of the remains) are skeletons, others are incomplete, and there are bags of small bones. We cannot yet determine the number of victims,” al-Salmo said. “Damascus has become a mass grave,” he said, pointing out the growing reports of war-related graves and burial sites in the capital and other places in Syria. Iran and Hezbollah provided Assad’s government with military, financial and logistical support during the civil war.

New Warning From Adraee and Continued Israeli Operations in Naqoura
This is Beirut/December 20, 2024
Three Lebanese citizens were kidnapped on Thursday evening by the Israeli army in Wadi Houjeir (Marjeyoun) in south Lebanon. They have been identified as Mahdi Chammout, Fouad Qataya and Ali Younes, according to several media reports. In yet another warning from the Israeli army's Arabic-speaking spokesman, Avichay Adraee, residents of southern Lebanon were warned on Monday against returning to their villages (62 according to the message posted on the X platform). In Naqoura, where Israeli forces have been continuing their operations since the ceasefire was announced on November 27, several streets and homes were destroyed in the morning. In addition, Israeli soldiers withdrew from the village of Bani Hayyan (Marjayoun), moving towards Markaba, in the same district. Last Wednesday, they demolished roads and houses in Bani Hayyan, after infiltrating the village. Meanwhile, the Civil Defense continues in its efforts to clear the rubble in the Haret Hreik area, in search of the remains of seven people presumed to have perished as a result of Israeli strikes on the area, and more specifically the Hezbollah headquarters where the group's former Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah was killed.
Lebanese Army Statement
The Lebanese army announced that it will detonate unexploded ordnance in Qalaa (Marjayoun) and Yabseh (Rachaya) between 10 AM and 6 PM on Friday. The army will also be detonating an aerial bomb and unexploded munitions left over from Israeli strikes in Jurd al-Taybeh-Baalbeck between 12:00 and 17:00.

The untold toll of war: Search for missing Hezbollah fighters hindered by Israel's destruction
LBCI/December 20, 2024
Nearly three weeks after the ceasefire in Israel's war on Lebanon, the scars remain deep, particularly for the families of fighters who have not been accounted for. For some families, the confirmation of a loved one's martyrdom came through reports from surviving comrades who were with them at the exact location or from the recovery of the fighter's weapon without their body. However, there is no final count yet of the fallen fighters. Hezbollah has refrained from releasing official statistics on the total number of martyrs since the start of the 'support front' for various reasons. The situation is further complicated by the Israeli army's continued occupation of nearly all border villages, except Khiam, which is now under the control of the Lebanese Army. In Khiam, only a small number of martyrs have been found, while estimates suggest that around 200 individuals from the village are still missing.
The search efforts have been hampered, as Israeli forces have bulldozed lands and destroyed buildings where the missing are believed to have been buried. Additionally, Israel used incendiary munitions containing gases in strikes on underground tunnels and facilities, which are suspected to have caused suffocation among fighters sheltering there. The devastation extends beyond Khiam. Israeli forces have repeatedly targeted rescue workers and Lebanese Army personnel during recovery efforts, further hindering the search for missing individuals. Consequently, the number of missing is known only to Hezbollah, which has not disclosed details yet until the identities of recovered bodies and remains can be verified. Since the war began in October 2023 and through September 27, Hezbollah has officially announced the martyrdom of 470 fighters. Notably, at least 400 of them were mourned since the start of the battle on September 23. Many others have been buried as provisional "deposits," awaiting proper funerals in their still-occupied hometowns.

Berri Asserts Continuous Efforts to Elect President on Jan. 9
This is Beirut/December 20, 2024
Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri affirmed on Friday that “efforts are ongoing so that on the parliamentary session of January 9, a president is elected.”He reaffirmed that he has no plans to postpone the session and has not been asked to do so by political forces in remarks to the Saudi daily Asharq al-Awsat. He emphasized that “presidency comes first” and refuted reports that he was attempting to secure earlier agreements on the future government, the prime minister’s name, the government’s composition and its ministerial statement. Berri further stated that “everything will become clear during the session” in reference to his ally, former Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader Walid Joumblatt, backing Army commander General Joseph Aoun in the presidential race.

General J. Aoun to New Army Cadets: 'Your Mission Is Sacred'
This is Beirut/December 20, 2024
Army Commander-in-Chief General Joseph Aoun on Friday congratulated cadets admitted in the Military Academy for joining the “institution of honor, sacrifice and loyalty.”“Armies are built for times of adversity, sacrifice is our destiny, even martyrdom if duty calls,” Aoun told the new cadets. “Let your party be Lebanon and your sect be the uniform. It is Lebanon that protects the sects, and not the other way around,” he added, stressing that the would-be officers should ignore rumors aimed at undermining the Army as it is one of the few institutions which are “still standing.”
“In three years, you will take an oath of duty to preserve the country’s flag,” he said, pointing out that there are three oath-takers in the Lebanese state, the president, the judge and the military, “because their mission is sacred.”“The institution will remain by your side to support you with all its capabilities,” he concluded.

MP Bilal Abdallah: We have yet to see the minimal efforts needed to prepare for January 9
LBCI/December 20, 2024
MP Bilal Abdallah highlighted the importance of electing a president who can reassure the Lebanese people and reopen the country to international relations in light of regional changes. Speaking on LBCI, Abdallah remarked that some now view the idea of a "consensus president" as provocative, urging a focus on finding a leader capable of addressing internal concerns and fostering external connections. He reiterated his bloc's previous support for Army Commander Joseph Aoun as a presidential candidate, criticizing certain factions for lacking the courage to endorse their preferred candidates publicly. "Aoun was one of the three candidates we proposed earlier, and the country cannot endure more political vacuum," he said. Abdallah stressed the urgency of breaking the political deadlock before the next presidential session scheduled for January 9. "We have yet to see the minimal efforts needed to prepare for this pivotal session," he added. Despite political differences, Abdullah reaffirmed the strong relationship between his bloc and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, stating, "No one can come between us, even if we end up voting for different candidates."

PM Mikati discusses coordination with international partners on Lebanon's reconstruction
LBCI/December 20, 2024
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati held a meeting on Friday with the United Nations Resident Coordinator in Lebanon, Imran Riza, the World Bank's Regional Director for the Middle East, Jean-Christophe Carret, and the European Union Ambassador, Sandra De Waele. Also attending the meeting were Prime Minister Mikati's advisors, former Minister Nicolas Nahas and Ziad Mikati. The discussions focused on coordination between the Lebanese government and international institutions, including the U.N., the EU, and the World Bank, to provide assistance and support to Lebanon, particularly in the area of reconstruction. Prime Minister Mikati also briefed the attendees on the current security situation in the country, discussing the matter with the Director General of the Internal Security Forces, Major General Imad Othman.

Beirut's Humiliating Street Names
Johnny Kortbawi/©This is Beirut/December 20, 2024
In Beirut, there is a specific mechanism for naming streets, involving the municipality and the Ministry of Interior, as well as third parties proposing names, provided they are approved by the concerned official authorities. Beirut’s streets carry various names, ranging from those of intellectuals and artists to individuals celebrated for their achievements, particularly among Beirut’s residents. Some streets bear the names of Lebanese or foreign political figures, reflecting different periods in Lebanon’s history. For example, Foch Street in downtown Beirut, the first commercial street on the northern side, is named after French General Ferdinand Foch. Many are unaware of the origins of Beirut’s Street names, a subject that requires extensive, documented study. In any case, the naming of Beirut’s streets was never a source of contention until a few years ago, when a major controversy arose over naming a street at the entrance of Ghobeiry after Mustafa Badreddine, the primary accused—and indeed convicted—figure in the assassination of the martyred Prime Minister Rafic Hariri. No one was able to overturn this decision, which was unfortunately endorsed by the Minister of Interior, despite the fact that he was aligned with Hezbollah’s opponents. As a result, we ended up with a street named after a man convicted of killing a Prime Minister. The issue arose again with the naming of the avenue welcoming travelers leaving the airport as Imam Khomeini Avenue, after the leader of the Islamic Republic accused by a significant portion of Lebanese people of funding an armed party against them. To put it bluntly, it is a sponsor of terrorism in Lebanon, with all the consequences that entails. Today, Hezbollah has been weakened, and its influence spans only those of weak spirit. Bashar al-Assad has fallen disgracefully in Syria, and his hegemony in the Middle East is no more. Demanding the removal of names like Hafez al-Assad, Mustafa Badreddine and others who committed heinous acts against the Lebanese people has become a national duty. We cannot accept streets named after figures whose names humiliate the people. As one MP aptly put it, “Have you ever seen a street in France named after Hitler?”On the other hand, some question the names of other streets bearing the names of French, British or other foreign figures on Lebanese soil. Take Foch, for example, or Allenby, or Weygand. There are many such names in Lebanon’s history, but it is necessary to evaluate their impact over time. Does the name Foch provoke the Lebanese, as the name Jamal Pasha does, for example? This is precisely why there is no street named after Jamal Pasha the “Butcher.”So why, then, do we accept having streets named after those who killed, terrorized and abducted Lebanese people over the years without mercy, and whose shadows still haunt relatives of people who went missing in Syria years ago? A national celebration should be held the day these names are removed from Beirut. Cleansing the capital of them is as significant as toppling the regimes that embody the oppression of the Lebanese people.

Sami Gemayel says won't take revenge or exclude Shiites as Lebanon 'rises again'
Naharnet/December 20, 2024
Kataeb leader Sami Gemayel said Friday that Hezbollah should know that the Lebanese will not accept to stay "under its guardianship" or to be "second-degree citizens" anymore. "We are neither willing to take revenge nor to isolate or exclude anyone," he said, talking about Hezbollah, Amal, and their supporters.
"We accept everyone but under the law and the constitution," he added. "The time of chaos is over. From now on we will not accept any group, other than the Lebanese army, to be armed."Gemayel had said, ahead of a presidential vote session scheduled for Jan. 9, that the upcoming president must be committed to the ceasefire agreement, although Gemayel's party and other opposition blocs have not yet agreed on a candidate. Under the terms of a ceasefire reached in November, the Lebanese army and U.N. peacekeepers are to become the only armed presence in south Lebanon, where Hezbollah has long held sway. "Lebanon is rising again," Gemayel said. "The things that prevented building a state in the past and isolated Lebanon from its Arab neighbors and the international community have fallen."

Army chief Joseph Aoun: Jumblat's candidate and Gemayel's friend
Naharnet/December 20, 2024
Former Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat has announced along with the Democratic Gathering bloc that they would endorse Army chief Gen. Joseph Aoun in a presidential vote scheduled for January 9. The bloc and Jumblat were the first to announce their official candidate. But why did Jumblat decide to support Aoun? "Aoun represents an important institution and has done an excellent work for the stability of Lebanon," Jubmlat said. "He is very important at this stage for the stability and security of Lebanon." The Lebanese army, widely respected and a rare source of unity in a country riven by sectarian and political divides, has recently deployed troops and tanks across the country's south after a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon went into effect in late November. Under the terms of the ceasefire, the Lebanese army and U.N. peacekeepers are to become the only armed presence in south Lebanon, where Hezbollah has long held sway. Hezbollah said it was cooperating with the army.While Hezbollah and ally Amal want a president who would protect Hezbollah's presence and its right to defend Lebanon, the opposition forces want the total opposite, they want Hezbollah disarmed and only the army to defend Lebanon and be present across the country including in the south, bordering Israel. "We want a president committed to the ceasefire agreement and we want only the Lebanese army to have weapons," Kataeb leader Sami Gemayel said, although his party and other opposition blocs have not yet agreed on a candidate. During the 60-day first phase of the U.S.-French brokered ceasefire deal, Hezbollah and Israeli forces are to withdraw from south Lebanon, and the Lebanese military is to step in. Thus, the ceasefire calls for the implementation of Resolution 1701.
In 2006, the United Nations Security Council unanimously voted for a resolution to end a bruising monthlong war between Israel and Hezbollah and pave the way for lasting security along the border. Israeli forces would fully withdraw from Lebanese territories while the Lebanese army and UNIFIL — Hezbollah excluded — would be the exclusive armed presence south of Lebanon's Litani River. The Lebanese state would have full sovereignty over its south. Resolution 1701's terms were never fully enforced. The ceasefire reached in November calls for its implementation.
"There are still ongoing consultations between the opposition forces," Gemayel said, adding that Aoun is a "friend" with common national values. "But we will not announce any candidate before the end of consultations."

Naim Qassem on Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon and about-face on Syria
David Daoud/FDD's Long War Journal/December 20/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/12/138184/
On Saturday, Hezbollah’s recently minted Secretary-General Naim Qassem offered his group’s first comment on the downfall of the regime of Bashar al Assad in Syria. The Assad regime was one of Hezbollah’s closest partners and the critical link in its overland lifeline to Iran.
Qassem’s speech broke down into two basic themes: the conflict with Israel and the situation in Syria. The latter, the most critical development impacting Hezbollah, was buried at the bottom, perhaps because it constituted such a major setback for the group. The portion of Qassem’s address focusing on Syria was also the most bizarre because the Hezbollah secretary-general extended an olive branch to groups that, the week prior, he described as unrepentant takfiri terrorists operating on behalf of Israel.
Qassem began by recounting the events leading up to and surrounding the recent war with Israel. Here, despite devoting almost 24 minutes of his 30-minute speech to the matter, Qassem had little new to offer. He restated his claims from previous speeches and insisted, again, that Hezbollah had emerged victorious. Demonstrating this victory, claimed Qassem, was Israel’s eagerness to sign a ceasefire agreement despite Hezbollah altering its terms.
“[US envoy Amos] Hochstein brought a ceasefire agreement agreed upon between Israel and America and presented it to us through presenting it to the Lebanese state and Mr. Nabih Berri. Parliament Speaker Berri had his comments, and we also had comments, and we amended what we could in this agreement. This, then, was the deal. We agreed [to it] based on the details we inserted into the deal,” Qassem said.
Qassem insisted that the ceasefire and its terms were meant to “end the aggression, not the resistance” to explain Hezbollah’s acceptance of the deal. Echoing his previous comments, he again said that “this is an executive deal stemming from [UN Security Council] Resolution 1701,” which ended the 2006 Hezbollah-Israel war and requires Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah (but which Lebanon interprets in bad faith to exclude the group from the disarmament requirement). As a mere extension of Resolution 1701, as understood by Lebanon and Hezbollah, this ceasefire deal “only relates to south of the Litani River, whereby Israel will withdraw to the Lebanese border, and the Lebanese Army would deploy as the only armed authority,” Qassem said.
Unlike in his last speech, Qassem did not explicitly say this time that the ceasefire agreement required Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River, only that “there will be no gunmen or weapons in this area [south of the Litani].” He again insisted that this deal “had no impact on the Lebanese interior and Lebanese domestic issues, or the resistance’s relationship with the state and the army, or its possession [literally, the presence] of weapons and all other matters that require discussion and debate.”
Qassem then implied Hezbollah would not abandon its arms or change its orientation. “The resistance” belief system, he said, would remain “equipped with weapons and capabilities to protect this belief against enemies, because the enemies will not stop, they will [also] prepare.” He continued, “Words alone would [therefore] not suffice. Complaints will not suffice. One must inevitably confront them by preparing the necessary strength.” Israel, “this cancerous tumor,” he said, was using Palestine as a base for regional expansionism and, therefore, must be confronted by a united region to “prevent its expansion and annul its occupation”—in this case, meaning Israel’s very existence.
Qassem said resistance organizations like Hezbollah win “in increments,” recalling a statement made by his predecessor, Hassan Nasrallah. Therefore, “it can last for an indefinite period of time—10 years or 50 years.” Uncharacteristically, he said resistance organizations can “occasionally win and occasionally lose,” the closest a Hezbollah leader has come to admitting defeat at Israel’s hands during the recent conflict.
In any case, Qassem insisted that “what’s important for a resistance is its continuity, that it remains on the battlefield irrespective of how limited its resources may be.” Hezbollah’s resistance, said Qassem, “will continue, in both belief and preparation,” arguing Israel was an implacable, expansionist foe that “can only be curbed through resistance, and [our] land can only be liberated through resistance.” Though Hezbollah may alter its confrontation methods to suit the time, “because every period has its own methods,” Qassem argued the important part is that “the resistance remains, and the methods and paths chosen will be determined based on each period, which we will work on.”
“Everyone according to their means and current circumstances, so long as we do not watch idly while Israel devours us one after the next,” Qassem said. In the next phase, like the ones before it, he stated Hezbollah would continue to cooperate with the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the people—a reference to the group’s “Army-People-Resistance” equation requiring the symbiotic cooperation of all three components. No option exists to exclude Hezbollah from Lebanon’s political function, he said, insisting Hezbollah remained a powerful force in Lebanese politics—and those who treat it as such “will be welcomed by us and met with our cooperation for the sake of a strong, socially, economically and politically stable Lebanon’s renaissance.”
Hezbollah, Qassem stated, intended to be fully part of that renaissance, first by implementing the ceasefire decision “south of the Litani”—again, without specifying how Hezbollah intended to do so—and by “reconstruction with the assistance of the state, which is responsible for reconstruction and cooperating with all countries, organizations, brothers, and friends who want to help Lebanon rebuild.”
Hezbollah, he also said, was serious about electing a president on January 9, 2025—the date set for the next parliamentary session to elect a president—“to allow the wheels of state to start turning.” Hezbollah would then work from within the state to combat corruption. Finally, Hezbollah would engage in “positive dialogue regarding fundamental issues,” hinting at the question of Hezbollah’s arms.
Of course, we have several such matters: What is Lebanon’s stance regarding the Israeli occupation of its lands? We want to dialogue to unify our perspectives; how will we confront the occupation and liberate our land and not accept the occupation’s continuation? How do we strengthen the army to be a bulwark in defending Lebanon? What is Lebanon’s national defense strategy to benefit from the resistance and the people as a support for liberation?
The framing of these questions took for granted that Hezbollah’s position in Lebanon would remain unchanged. Qassem’s proposed method of resolving these questions—“these questions and more require dialogue between the Lebanese”—would guarantee Lebanon’s continued inaction against the group and its arsenal.
Threaded through Qassem’s speech, naturally, was Hezbollah’s consistent insistence that Israel is intrinsically evil, a greedy and murderous expansionist entity threatening all its surroundings with America’s support and complicity. “Were it not for the resistance’s endurance, Israel would have reached Beirut,” he alleged without proof, before turning more conspiratorial and claiming, “it would then have proceeded with […] settlement in south Lebanon, weakening Lebanon, and controlling its politics and future.”
Qassem continued:
We are not speaking of an unknown enemy. We are not speaking of unrealistic ideas. Look at this enemy’s unparalleled murderousness, look at what they are doing in Gaza. One hundred and fifty thousand martyrs and wounded, near-total destruction of Gaza; they issue statements saying, ‘We don’t want to leave Gaza,’ they say, ‘We want northern Gaza demilitarized, stripped of civilian presence, depopulated, with no homes, with no life.’ They are thinking of settling Gaza, and say they want to annex the West Bank— and are working towards that with total cover by the big murderer, America, which supports [Israel] with all its means. Therefore, America’s entire $850 billion defense budget is in service of Israel if the two parties [Republican and Democratic] are in Israel’s service. More than approximately 500 [cargo] planes reached the Israeli entity laden with weapons and ammunition, in addition to 100 similar ships—meaning that the murder we see is America’s creation and it was America’s decision to grant it cover.
Proof, he claimed, of Israel’s intentions is “what happened in Syria. They destroyed all the capabilities of the Syrian army, claiming preemptive self-defense and fear of the future. […] This is proof of their expansionist desires; they want to neutralize the entire region and would do this to one Arab country after the next if they could. They have their eyes set on neighboring Arab countries first, and further ones next.” Israel’s expansionist intentions require the continuation of the resistance, he said.
Naim Qassem’s concern for a post-Assad Syria was the most peculiar part of his speech. In his previous address three days before Assad’s downfall, Qassem warned that the onslaught of the opposition factions was:
[A]n aggression in Syria sponsored by America and Israel. These takfiri groups were always their tools from 2011 when the problems began in Syria. These [the US and Israel], after they failed in Gaza and the deal to end the aggression on Lebanon, and the failed attempts to neutralize Syria, are now trying to score gains by ruining Syria anew, and through these terrorist groups want to bring about the downfall of the regime in Syria and create chaos in that country, and to move Syria from the line of resistance to an enemy position that serves the Israeli enemy. However, God willing, they will fail to accomplish their goals despite what they did in the past days. We, as Hezbollah, will remain beside Syria to foil the goals of this aggression with all our available means, God willing.
Qassem ended that previous speech by calling on “Arabs and Muslims” to also act to prevent Assad’s downfall because the regime’s demise would be a victory for Israel and its “very dangerous Middle Eastern expansionist” project, “which is a loss for you as well, not just Palestine, Syria, and Lebanon—and will have a negative impact on your countries and future of your children.” He, therefore, beseeched his audience to “prevent the takfiris from [succeeding in] their aggression that serves the Israeli enemy.”
In his latest speech, by contrast, Qassem said, “We cannot prejudge the new authorities in Syria until they settle, take clear positions, and the position of the new regime in Syria stabilizes.” He hoped the new authorities would ensure cooperation between the “two peoples and governments in Lebanon and Syria on the basis of equality and exchange of capabilities,” and would ensure broad representation domestically. Qassem also said, “We hope that the new rulers consider Israel an enemy and do not normalize with it. These decisions will affect the nature of our relationship with Syria.”
Qassem ended his speech by insisting that “the Syrian people have a right to decide their leadership, rulers, constitution, and future—and we hope they make choices that will prevent any of the countries with designs on Syria from controlling it, and which seek to serve the Israeli enemy.” Also contradicting his prior speech, he said, “We do not think what is happening in Syria will affect Lebanon—to the contrary, they’re too busy in Syria dealing with their own particular issues. God willing, Syria will emerge stable and comfortable, fulfilling the desires of its people.”
These were odd statements from the leader of a group that spent significant blood and treasure over nearly a decade murdering Syrians to prop up the regime of Bashar al Assad in service of an Iranian agenda. But Hezbollah is a pragmatic organization and has, per Qassem’s admission, “lost, in this stage, its military supply route through Syria” through Assad’s downfall.
Hezbollah would prefer this supply line’s restoration, and Qassem’s address dovetailed with the overall conciliatory posture the group has adopted towards Syria’s new rulers. For, as Qassem said, Hezbollah’s “loss is a footnote in resistance activity—the new regime could restore this path to its natural course.” That outcome would be ideal for Hezbollah, and it appears to be something both the group and its Iranian patrons are seeking. Otherwise, Qassem said, “We will find other routes. […] The resistance must adapt to circumstances to strengthen its capabilities.”
*David Daoud is Senior Fellow at at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies where he focuses on Israel, Hezbollah, and Lebanon affairs.
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2024/12/analysis-naim-qassem-on-hezbollahs-influence-in-lebanon-and-about-face-on-syria.php

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 20-21/2024
At least two dead, 68 injured after car drives into German Christmas market
AP/December 20, 2024
BERLIN: A car plowed into a busy outdoor Christmas market in the eastern German city of Magdeburg on Friday, leaving at least two people dead and injuring at least 68 others in what authorities suspect was an attack. The driver of the car was arrested, German news agency dpa reported, citing unidentified government officials in the state of Saxony-Anhalt. The suspect was not known to German authorities as an Islamic extremist, dpa reported, citing unidentified security officials.  Regional government spokesperson Matthias Schuppe and city spokesperson Michael Reif said they suspected it was a deliberate act. “The pictures are terrible,” Reif said. “My information is that a car drove into the Christmas market visitors, but I can’t yet say from what direction and how far.”Magdeburg’s University Hospital said it was taking care of 10 to 20 patients but was preparing for more, dpa reported. The sounds of sirens from first responders clashed with the market’s holiday decorations, including ornaments, stars and leafy garland festooning the vendors’ booths. Debris could be seen on the ground in footage of a cordoned-off part of the market. The car drove into the market at around 7 p.m., when it was busy with holiday shoppers looking forward to the weekend. “This is a terrible event, particularly now in the days before Christmas,” Saxony-Anhalt governor Reiner Haseloff said. Haseloff told dpa that he was on his way to Magdeburg but couldn’t immediately give any information on victims or what was behind the incident. Chancellor OIaf Scholz posted on X: “My thoughts are with the victims and their relatives. We stand beside them and beside the people of Magdeburg.” Magdeburg, which is west of Berlin, is the state capital of Saxony-Anhalt and has about 240,000 residents. The suspected attack came eight years after an attack on a Christmas market in Berlin. On Dec. 19, 2016, an Islamic extremist plowed through a crowded Christmas with a truck, killing 13 people and injuring dozens more. The attacker was killed days later in a shootout in Italy. Christmas markets are a huge part of German culture as an annual holiday tradition cherished since the Middle Ages and successfully exported to much of the Western world. In Berlin alone, more than 100 markets opened late last month and brought the smells of mulled wine, roasted almonds and bratwurst to the capital. Other markets abound across the country.

German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said late last month that there were no concrete indications of a danger to Christmas markets this year, but that it was wise to be vigilant.
US scraps $10m bounty for arrest of Syria's new leader Sharaa
Tom Bateman - BBC State Department correspondent/December 20, 2024
The US has scrapped a $10m (£7.9m) reward for the arrest of Syria's de facto leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, following meetings between senior diplomats and representatives from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Leaf said the discussion with Sharaa was "very productive", and he came across as "pragmatic". The US delegation arrived in the capital, Damascus, after HTS overthrew the Bashar al-Assad regime less than a fortnight ago. Washington still designates it as a terrorist group. A State Department spokesperson confirmed that the diplomats discussed "transition principles" supported by the US, regional events and the need to fight against IS. The spokesperson also said the officials were seeking further information on American citizens who disappeared under Assad's regime, including journalist Austin Tice, who was abducted in Damascus in 2012, and psychotherapist Majd Kamalmaz, who disappeared in 2017. A US embassy spokesperson earlier said a news conference involving Ms Leaf had been cancelled due to "security concerns". However during a later briefing, Leaf denied that, insisting "street celebrations" were the cause of the delay. The visit is the first formal American diplomatic appearance in Damascus in more than a decade. It is a further sign of the dramatic shifts under way in Syria since the ousting of Assad, and the speed of efforts by the US and Europe, also leaning on Arab countries, to try to influence its emerging governance. The visit follows those of delegations in recent days from the UN and other countries including the UK, France and Germany. The delegation of senior officials includes Barbara Leaf, Roger Carstens, who is US President Joe Biden's hostage envoy, and Daniel Rubinstein, a senior adviser in the Bureau of Near East Affairs. A car belonging to the US delegation parked outside a hotel in Damascus. On the dashboard a US flag and government sign is displayed. The visit is the first formal US diplomatic appearance in Damascus in more than a decade [Getty Images]. The spokesperson also said the delegation engaged with civil society groups and members of different communities in Syria "about their vision for the future of their country and how the United States can help support them". The meeting was a show of readiness to deal with HTS, which the US still designates as a terrorist organisation but is building pressure for it to transition to inclusive, non-sectarian government. Washington is effectively laying down a set of conditions before it would consider delisting the group - a critical step which could help ease the path towards sanctions relief that Damascus desperately needs. Meanwhile, US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that IS leader Abu Yusif and two of his operatives had been killed in an air strike in the Deir al-Zour province of north-eastern Syria. It said in a statement on Friday that the airstrike was launched on Thursday and carried out in an area that was formerly controlled by the Assad regime and Russian forces supporting his government. CENTCOM commander Gen Michael Erik Kurilla said the US would not allow IS "to take advantage of the current situation in Syria and reconstitute", adding the group intended to free more than 8,000 detained IS militants being held in Syria. 'Danger of IS resurgence has doubled' - Syria's Kurds warn of group's comeback. Jeremy Bowen: Syria's new ruler is politically astute - but can he keep his promises? Life in Idlib hints at what Syria can expect from rebel rule. Thin, dark blue banner promoting the US Election Unspun newsletter with text that says it is: "The newsletter that cuts through the noise". There is also a striped red and blue graphic with white stars and a headshot of Anthony Zurcher. North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher makes sense of US politics in his twice weekly US Election Unspun newsletter. Readers in the UK can sign up here. Those outside the UK can sign up here.

US diplomats meet representatives of Syria’s Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham in Damascus
Reuters/December 20, 2024
WASHINGTON/DAMASCUS: US diplomats visiting Damascus held Washington’s first in-person official meetings with Syria’s new de facto rulers led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham on Friday and discussed with the former Al-Qaeda affiliate the future of Syria’s political transition. The United States, other Western powers and many Syrians were glad to see militias led by HTS topple President Bashar Assad, but it is not clear whether the group will impose strict Islamic rule or show flexibility and move toward democracy. Western governments are gradually opening channels to HTS and its leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa, a former commander of an Al-Qaeda franchise in Syria, and starting to debate whether to remove the group’s terrorist designation. The US delegation’s trip follows contacts with France and Britain in recent days. The State Department’s top Middle East diplomat Barbara Leaf, Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs Roger Carstens and Senior Adviser Daniel Rubinstein, who now is tasked with leading the Department’s Syria engagement, are the first US diplomats to travel to Damascus since Assad’s rule collapsed. “They met with representatives of HTS to discuss transition principles endorsed by the United States,” a State Department spokesperson said. “They also discussed regional events and the imperative of the fight against Daesh,” the spokesperson added. The delegation engaged with civil society groups and members of different communities in Syria “about their vision for the future of their country and how the United States can help support them,” the spokesperson said. Days after Assad’s ouster, the United States has outlined a set of principles, such as inclusivity and respect for the rights of minorities, that Washington wants included in Syria’s political transition. The delegation also worked to uncover new information about US journalist Austin Tice, who was taken captive during a reporting trip to Syria in 2012, and other American citizens who went missing under Assad. A press conference had been scheduled with the US officials but a statement issued on behalf of Leaf said it was canceled for security concerns, without providing details. The US cut diplomatic ties with Syria and shut its embassy in Damascus in 2012.
Syrian rebels seized control of Damascus on Dec. 8, forcing Assad to flee after more than 13 years of civil war and ending his family’s decades-long rule. The rebel sweep ended a war that killed hundreds of thousands, caused one of the biggest refugee crises of modern times and left cities bombed to rubble, countryside depopulated and the economy hollowed out by global sanctions. The lightning offensive raised questions over whether the rebels will be able to ensure an orderly transition. Forces under the command of Al-Sharaa — better known as Abu Mohammed Al-Golani — installed a three-month caretaker government that had been ruling a rebel enclave in Syria’s northwestern province of Idlib. Washington designated Al-Sharaa a terrorist in 2013, saying Al-Qaeda in Iraq had tasked him with overthrowing Assad’s rule and establishing sharia in Syria. It said the Nusra Front, the predecessor of HTS, carried out suicide attacks that killed civilians and espoused a violent sectarian vision. Golani said the terrorist designation was unfair and that he opposed the killing of innocent people. Washington remains concerned that Islamic State could seize the moment to resurrect and also wants to avoid any clashes in the country’s northeast between Turkiye-backed rebel factions and US-allied Kurdish militia. On Friday, thousands of Syrians held a celebration at Ummayad Square in central Damascus, in an event called for by HTS. Speakers blared revolutionary songs, while people waved the newly adopted Syrian flag and chanted slogans in support of the transnational government and against Assad. The crowd was a mix of people from different walks of life and backgrounds: armed men in military fatigues, women – both with and without headscarves – and children. Maram, 62, said that her four children had fled Syria 11 years ago and settled in Germany and Hungary after two of her sons were detained and tortured. She has not seen them since, but they plan to return to their country to help rebuild it, she said. “The country has been completely destroyed in every aspect,” she said, adding she hoped HTS could improve things, but was watchful. “We were not accustomed to freedom or governing our own country, so we will continue to monitor until we reach our goal.” There is widespread apprehension among Syrians that the new administration will gravitate toward hard-line religious rule, marginalizing minority communities and excluding women from public life. Obaida Arnout, a spokesperson for the Syrian transitional government, said this week that women’s “biological and physiological nature” rendered them unfit for certain governmental jobs.

US delegation meets with al-Jolani in Damascus
Agence France Presse/December 20, 2024
U.S. diplomats met with Syria's new ruler on Friday, an official told AFP, as outside powers seek assurances the country's Islamist-led authorities will be moderate and inclusive. The ouster of former president Bashar al-Assad ended decades of abuses and years of civil war, but raised concerns over minorities and women's rights, as well as the future of the semi-autonomous Kurdish region. The lightning offensive that toppled Assad was led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), rooted in al-Qaia's Syria branch but recently adopting a moderate stance. Its sudden arrival in the capital has left foreign governments, especially the United States, scrambling for new policies, as HTS is designated a terrorist group by some countries. A Syrian official, speaking on condition of anonymity, later confirmed the U.S. delegation had met with Syria's new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, head of HTS. "And the results will be positive, God willing," the official added. A planned press conference by the U.S. delegation was "cancelled due to security concerns". U.S. diplomats have not been to Damascus on a formal mission since the early days of the civil war that erupted after Assad cracked down on anti-government protests in 2011. The delegation would also meet with activists, minority groups and civil society representatives, the State Department said. The group includes Barbara Leaf, the top State Department official for the Middle East, as well as the U.S. point man on hostages, who has been seeking clues on missing Americans including Austin Tice, a journalist who was kidnapped in Syria in August 2012. Their visit follows a statement by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, revealing direct contact with HTS.
Kurdish fears
At talks in Aqaba, Jordan, Western, Arab and Turkish powers jointly called for an "inclusive, non-sectarian and representative government" that respects the rights of all of Syria's diverse communities. This was echoed in Cairo by Turkey and Iran, which supported different sides in the war. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who backed Assad's opponents, stressed reconciliation and restoration of Syria's territorial integrity and unity. Turkey has been putting pressure on Kurdish-led forces in Syria, and Erdogan said Friday it was time to destroy "terrorist" groups operating in the country, namely Islamic State group jihadists and Kurdish fighters. "Daesh, the PKK and their affiliates -- which threaten the survival of Syria -- must be eradicated," he told journalists following the Cairo summit, referring to IS and the Kurdistan Workers Party, respectively. The semiautonomous northeastern region of Syria is protected by the Syrian Democratic Forces, a group led by People's Protection Units (YPG). Turkey accuses the YPG of being a branch of the PKK, which both Washington and Ankara consider a terrorist group. Kurdish leaders in Syria have welcomed Assad's ouster and raised the three-star independence-era rebel flag, but many in the region fear continued attacks by Turkey and allied fighters.Several thousand people chanted "The Syrian people are one", and "No to war in our region, no to Turkey's attack" at Thursday's demonstration in Qamishli.
'No to religious rule' -
In Damascus, demonstrators chanted "No to religious rule", and "We want a democracy, not a religious state."This came after a spokesman for the interim government said "female representation in ministries or parliament... is premature", citing "biological" and other considerations. Majida Mudarres, a retired civil servant, expressed anger at the comments. "Women have a big role in political life," the 50-year-old. "We will be observing any position against women and will not accept it. The time in which we were silent is over." Amy Pope, the head of the UN's migration agency, on Friday urged "the caretaker government to continue to empower and enable women, because they are going to be absolutely critical to the rebuilding of the country". Pope also called for the raft of international sanctions on Syria to be reassessed to help the country regain its footing. Syria's civil war killed more than 500,000 people and sparked an exodus of millions of refugees. Since Assad's departure, which sparked celebrations at home and abroad, rebels have thrown open prisons where tens of thousands of people were arbitrarily detained and tortured.
They have also located mass graves believed to hold some of the estimated 100,000 people who died or were killed in custody since 2011.

US airstrike kills ISIS leader in Syria: Officials
LUIS MARTINEZ/ABC News/December 20, 2024
The U.S. military killed a top Islamic State leader and another member in an airstrike conducted in Syria on Thursday, U.S. Central Command said. The strike targeted Abu Yusif, also known as Mahmud, in the Dayr az Zawr Province, an area formerly controlled by the Syrian regime and Russians, CENTCOM said. He and an unidentified ISIS member were killed in the strike, according to CENTCOM. "ISIS has the intent to break out of detention the over 8,000 ISIS operatives currently being held in facilities in Syria. We will aggressively target these leaders and operatives, including those trying to conduct operations external to Syria," Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, CENTCOM commander, said in a statement. The airstrike follows the Pentagon revealing Thursday that the U.S. troop presence in Syria is 2,000, up from the 900 previously publicly known to be in Syria. Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon press secretary, said the troops had been in Syria for a while, since before the fall of Bashar Assad's regime earlier this month. Ryder explained there are 900 "core" troops who are on longer-term deployments in Syria that last between nine and 12 months, but he disclosed that there are an additional 1,100 troops who are considered to be "temporary rotational forces" and are often deployed for between 30 and 90 days to meet additional requirements in that region. US airstrike kills ISIS leader in Syria: Officials originally appeared on abcnews.go.com
President-elect Donald Trump took a brief hiatus from the U.S. government’s shutdown crisis Friday morning to re-up his threats of a trade war with the nation’s closest allies. “I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas,” Trump posted to Truth Social on Friday morning. “Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!” he added. Who exactly Trump “told” within the 27-member, multi-institutional bloc remains at this stage something of a mystery.
But it’s not the first time he’s made these threats, having campaigned earlier this year on a platform for imposing tariffs of up to 20 percent on all goods imported into the U.S. The threats also carry echoes of the earlier trade war he waged against the EU during the first half of his earlier stint in the White House, lambasting European countries for treating the U.S. like “a piggy bank that everybody’s robbing.”In the meantime, however, Trump arguably has more pressing things to worry about, after a number of Republican congressional representatives defied him on Thursday night to vote down a spending bill he and tech billionaire buddy Elon Musk were backing. As of Friday morning, the House remains locked in a desperate scrabble to approve some sort of spending bill to avert a government shutdown at midnight and the holiday travel chaos it would inevitably precede.

Unseen ‘Since the Nazis’: Syrians Uncover Mass Graves and Evidence of Assad Regime’s Atrocities
FDD/December 20/2024
Latest Developments
Hundreds of Thousands of Regime Victims Buried in Mass Graves: Human rights organizations are uncovering evidence of mass executions that occurred during the rule of ousted Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. On December 16, former U.S. ambassador-at-large for war crimes Stephen Rapp, who led the prosecution of war crimes in Rwanda and Sierra Leone, said, “We really haven’t seen anything quite like this since the Nazis.” Hundreds of Thousands of Victims: The Syrian Emergency Task Force — a U.S.-based Syrian advocacy organization — reported that one mass grave in Qutayfah, located 25 miles north of Damascus, contained at least 100,000 bodies of people murdered by Assad’s regime. The International Commission on Missing Persons in The Hague reported on December 10 that they had received reports of at least 66 mass graves in Syria. The group estimated that 150,000 people were missing due to the regime’s crackdowns during the Syrian civil war from 2011 to 2024. Regime’s Notorious Prisons: The Syrian regime ran a network of prisons that were notorious for torture, mass execution, and brutal conditions that caused deaths from disease and starvation. Assad also used chemical and conventional weapons against civilians. Syrian human rights groups estimate that up to 620,000 people, both civilians and combatants on all sides, have been killed throughout the civil war.
FDD Expert Response
“More than 100,000 people were tortured, murdered, and buried in mass graves by Bashar al-Assad and his thugs, who were supported by Tehran and Moscow. Why aren’t the ‘social justice warriors’ at American and European universities protesting? Do they not know about the graves because nothing has popped up about them on these scholars’ iPhones? Or do they know quite well and just don’t give a damn because they can’t blame Israelis, Zionists, or Jews?” — Clifford D. May, Founder & President
“The world cannot say it didn’t know about the mass graves, nor the crematoria. Gravediggers and others who were required to participate in this horror testified before Congress about this, as did ‘Caesar,’ the military defector who was forced to place markings on the bodies of those who were tortured to death. And yet, the world switched the channel, shamefully looked the other way, and ignored what it knew to be true. Assad and his Islamic Republic of Iran enablers must be publicly held to account, or humanity risks it happening again. Regrettably, while Assad has left the country, Syria won’t be safe until those who adhere to his brand of butchery are imprisoned and brought to justice.” — Toby Dershowitz, Managing Director of FDD Action
“The international community must hold the Assad regime to account for its mass murder of the Syrian people, including dozens, if not hundreds, of chemical weapons attacks on innocent men, women, and children in Ghouta, Khan Shaykhun, Douma, and elsewhere. To that end, the United States and its partners must demand that Syria’s new government admit the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) into the country to ensure the chemical weapons program’s full dismantlement and adequately fund the OPCW’s ongoing mission to assign attribution for past attacks. This will have the added benefit of supporting a badly eroded, international anti-chemical weapons norm.” — Andrea Stricker, Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program Deputy Director and Research Fellow
FDD Background and Analysis

Turkey, Iran leaders meet at Muslim summit in Cairo
Agence France Presse/December 20, 2024
The leaders of Turkey and Iran met in Cairo at a summit of eight Muslim-majority countries, in their first sit-down since the fall of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. The two countries were on opposite sides of Syria's long-running civil war, with Turkey historically backing Assad's opponents and Iran supporting his rule. During their meeting, Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that his country "wants to see a Syria where stability and security prevail" and "terrorism is eradicated", according to a statement by the Turkish presidency issued Thursday night. He also stressed the importance of protecting "Syria's territorial integrity and unity". A statement from the office of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also said that the "slightest damage to the territorial integrity of Syria is in no way acceptable". It added that Muslim countries "must act responsibly" against Israel's "crimes" in the region. The gathering in Cairo of the D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation, also known as the Developing-8, was being held against a backdrop of regional turmoil, including the war in Gaza, a fragile ceasefire in Lebanon and unrest in Syria. In his speech at the summit, Pezeshkian said that "it is our religious, legal and human duty to prevent further harm" to those suffering in these conflict zones. Pezeshkian is the first Iranian president to visit Egypt since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2013. Relations between Egypt and Iran have been strained for decades, but diplomatic contacts have intensified since Cairo became a mediator in the war in Gaza.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Egypt in October, while his Egyptian counterpart Badr Abdelatty travelled to Tehran in July to attend Pezeshkian's inauguration. Erdogan is visiting Egypt for the second time this year. His February trip marked his first visit to Egypt as president after last visiting in 2012, when he served as Turkey's prime minister.

Erdogan says Turkey expects allies to pull support from Kurds in post-Assad Syria
Reuters/December 20, 2024
ANKARA (Reuters) -Turkey expects foreign countries will withdraw support for Kurdish fighters in Syria following the toppling of Bashar al-Assad, President Tayyip Erdogan said, as Ankara seeks to isolate Kurds who have long fought alongside U.S. troops. Germany's foreign minister later said Kurdish forces should disarm and integrate into Syria's national security structure and Washington's top diplomat for the Middle East said the U.S. was working on a "managed transition" for the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northern Syria. Speaking to reporters on the flight home from a summit in Egypt on Thursday, Erdogan said there was no longer any reason for outsiders to back Kurdish YPG fighters. His comments were released by his office on Friday. The Kurdish YPG has been the main force in the alliance but Turkey considers the group an extension of the PKK, which has long fought the Turkish state and is banned as terrorists by Ankara, Washington and the EU. In his remarks, Erdogan compared the U.S.-backed YPG to Islamic State, and said neither group had any future in Syria. "In the upcoming period, we do not believe that any power will continue to collaborate with terrorist organisations. The heads of terrorist organisations such as Islamic State and PKK-YPG will be crushed in the shortest possible time."German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said after talks with her Turkish counterpart in Ankara that the security of Kurds was essential for a free Syria, but that Turkey's security concerns must also be addressed to ensure stability. "The Kurdish groups must be disarmed and integrated into the national security structure," she said. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf told reporters after visiting Damascus on Friday that Washington was working with Ankara and the SDF to find "a managed transition in terms of SDF's role in that part of the country." "The conditions which led Kurds in northeast Syria to organise themselves and to defend themselves as they did, were one set of conditions and things have really changed in a very dramatic fashion," Leaf said.
The United States said this week it has 2,000 troops on the ground in Syria working alongside the YPG-led alliance known as the Syrian Democratic Forces. The SDF played a major role on the ground defeating Islamic State militants in 2014-2017 with U.S. air support, and still guards Islamist fighters in prison camps. Ankara, alongside Syrian allies, has mounted several cross-border offensives against the YPG-led SDF in northern Syria, while repeatedly demanding that its NATO ally Washington halt support for the fighters. Hostilities have escalated since Assad was toppled less than two weeks ago, with Turkey and Syrian groups it backs seizing the city of Manbij from the SDF on Dec. 9, prompting the United States to broker a fragile ceasefire. Erdogan told reporters that Turkey wanted to see a new Syria in which all ethnic and religious groups can live in harmony. To achieve this, "Islamic State, the PKK and its versions which threaten the survival of Syria need to be eradicated", he said. "The PKK terrorist organisation and its extensions in particular have reached the end of their lifespan," Erdogan added. On Thursday, SDF commander Mazloum Abdi told Reuters that Kurdish fighters from outside Syria who had joined the group's ranks would leave if a truce were agreed with Turkey, long one of Ankara's major demands. In his remarks, Abdi acknowledged for the first time that Kurdish fighters from other countries - including PKK members - had been assisting the SDF, but said they would no longer be needed under a truce. A Turkish Defence Ministry official said there was no talk of a ceasefire between Turkey and the SDF, adding that Ankara would continue taking counter-terrorism measures until "the PKK/YPG lays down its arms and its foreign fighters leave Syria".

What will Syria's future look like? The answer could lie in other Arab countries' recent pasts
CAIRO (AP)/December 20, 2024
Even with hopes running high, so much can go wrong when a country ousts a longtime dictator and tries to start anew. The Middle Eastern and North African nations that attempted to transition to democracy in recent years can attest to that. Now it's Syria's turn to try to get it right. It’s hard to draw lessons from the experiences of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Sudan since the wave of Arab Spring uprisings that began in 2011, as each country’s dynamics are different, But there are common themes. In some cases, “the Revolution” was lost when armed factions battled it out for power or an ambitious would-be strongman emerged. In others, the miliary refused to cede control to civilians or foreign countries fueled conflicts by backing one side or another with money and weapons. Questions must be asked before major decisions are made that can spark a destabilizing backlash: How do you deal with the old police state — purge or compromise? What do you do first, hold elections or write a constitution? And how do you fix a crippled economy riddled with corruption?So far, Syria’s transition has been surprisingly smooth. But it's only been two weeks since President Bashar Assad was toppled, and many of those same dangers lurk in the background. The insurgents who ousted Assad are rooted in extremist Islamist ideology, and though they have vowed to create a pluralist system, it isn't clear how or whether they plan to share power. Other armed factions — or even remnants of Assad's feared security forces — could lash out. And it remains to be seen whether the Kurds, who hold autonomous rule in the east, will be brought back into the fold, especially when Turkey fiercely opposes the main Kurdish faction. Groups such as the Alawites, to whom Assad's family belongs, fear being squeezed out of any role, or worse, being targeted for revenge. Here's a look at the power dynamics in some of these other countries:
Yemen
Protests forced Yemen’s Ali Abdullah Saleh to resign in November 2011, ending his 33-year rule. Under a deal brokered by Gulf countries, Saleh received immunity and handed his powers to his vice president, Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi. Hadi was to serve as caretaker president for two years, during which a new constitution would be written, leading eventually to elections. But Saleh, who remained in the capital, Sanaa, allied himself with Houthi rebels based in the north — his longtime enemy -- in a bid to regain power. Backed by Saleh’s loyalists, the Houthis seized Sanaa and much of the populated center of the country. Hadi and his government fled south, where they are based in the city of Aden and control southern and much of eastern Yemen. A Saudi-led coalition of Arab countries launched a bombardment campaign aimed at restoring Hadi’s government. Since then, Yemen has been torn by civil war that has killed more than 150,000 people and caused one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. The war became a proxy conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Yemen has remained split between the Houthis, who later broke with Saleh’s camp and killed Saleh, and Hadi’s government. Various militias nominally back Hadi but also have their own interests and are funded by the United Arab Emirates.
Libya
Libya’s Moammar Gadhafi met the most violent end of any of the region’s strongmen. An uprising turned into a civil war, and then with NATO backing, the rebels seized the capital, Tripoli, and killed a fleeing Gadhafi in October 2011. The oil-rich nation quickly splintered into regions controlled by a dizzying array of militias, including local and tribal groups, nationalists and mainstream Islamist factions, and diehard jihadis such as al-Qaida and the Islamic State group. Attempts to stitch it back together with elections or agreements have failed. A disputed parliamentary election in 2014 led to two rival administrations: one in the east backed by powerful military commander Khalifa Hifter, and the other in the west based in Tripoli that is backed by militias and recognized by the United Nations. Hifter tried to seize the west in 2019, triggering a 14-month war. Then, an attempt at a unity government and new elections fell apart, and once again Libya was left split between east-west governments.Foreign powers, including Russia, Turkey and the UAE, backed various sides. European countries have funneled money to the Tripoli government trying to stem the flow of migrants from Africa through Libya toward Europe, but the money has largely helped fund militias. Efforts to end the conflict remain deadlocked.
Sudan
In Sudan, the powerful military has thwarted attempts to transition to an elected civilian government. Pro-democracy protests prompted the military to remove strongman Omar al-Bashir in April 2019, and the generals took power for themselves. The protesters stayed in the streets, demanding a handover of power to civilians, despite a crackdown that killed hundreds. Finally, the generals agreed to a power-sharing deal with the pro-democracy alliance that led the protests. A civilian prime minister led a Cabinet backed by a council headed by two powerful generals, including one notorious for atrocities committed in Darfur and during the 2019 crackdown on protesters. But just before the military was supposed to hand over the council's leadership to civilians, the generals orchestrated a coup. A few months later, in April 2023, the generals turned on each other, triggering a war in which their forces have battled throughout the country, including in the capital, Khartoum. The war has been marked by atrocities, caused widespread hunger and driven millions from their homes, becoming the world’s worst displacement crisis.
Tunisia
The Arab Spring started in Tunisia more than 13 years ago. Until recently, the country was hailed as a role model in the transition to democracy. It held free elections and drafted a constitution lauded by Western rights groups. But since being elected in 2019, President Kais Saied has increased his powers in what activists call a backslide from democracy. Saied temporarily suspended the parliament, redrafted the constitution and launched a crackdown on his opponents, imprisoning hundreds allegedly for undermining state security — a claim autocrats have long used to stamp out dissent.
Egypt
The military has been the main power player in Egypt. It seized direct control after 18 days of protests forced longtime autocrat Hosni Mubarak to resign on Feb. 11, 2011.
Within 15 months, parliamentary and presidential elections were held. The Muslim Brotherhood, the most powerful opposition force during Mubarak’s era, swept both votes. Despite repeatedly insisting it wouldn't seek to dominate politics, it formed a majority in parliament and created a Brotherhood-led government. Over the next year, turmoil increased over accusations by opponents that the Brotherhood was unfairly imposing its will on the country, including writing an Islamist-leaning constitution. Many, including the large Coptic Christian minority, feared Islamist rule.
Amid anti-Brotherhood protests, the military stepped in and removed President Mohammed Morsi in July 2013, a move supported by many secular parties and activists. It launched a ferocious crackdown on the Brotherhood, killing hundreds. Militant violence swelled with attacks on security forces and Christians.
Military chief Abdel Fattah el-Sissi was elected president in 2014 and has since increased the influence of the army on the government and economy. The government has gone further than Mubarak did in stifling dissent, arresting Islamists and secular activists, and silencing media criticism.

Turkey and Russia engage in delicate maneuvers over Syria after Assad’s downfall
The Associated Press/December 20, 2024
The rapid downfall of Syrian leader Bashar Assad has touched off a new round of delicate geopolitical maneuvering between Russia's Vladimir Putin and Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan. With the dust still settling from the stunning events in Damascus, the outcome for now seems to be favoring Ankara, which backed the victorious rebels, while Moscow suffered a bruising blow to its international clout. “In the game of Czars vs. Sultans, this is Sultans 1 and Czars 0,” said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute. “Far from being allies, Turkey and Russia are competitors. And in this case, Turkey has outsmarted Russia.”The Assad regime’s demise opens another chapter in the complex relationship between Putin and Erdogan, with wide-ranging implications not just for Syria but also for Ukraine and the two leaders' ties with Washington.
Russia and Turkey share economic and security interests — along with an intense rivalry. The personal relationship between Putin and Erdogan often sees them both praising each other, even as they jockey for political and economic gains.
“There are currently only two leaders left in the world -- there is me and there is Vladimir Putin,” Erdogan said recently, reflecting the respect for the Kremlin leader. Putin, in turn, has often praises Erdogan’s political prowess.
Conflicts and deals
Russia and Turkey backed opposing sides in Syria’s civil war that started in 2011, putting them on a collision course. Tensions spiraled when a Turkish fighter jet shot down a Russian warplane near the Turkey-Syria border in November 2015, soon after Moscow launched its air campaign to support Assad. The Kremlin responded with sweeping economic sanctions that halted Turkish imports, drove Turkish companies from the lucrative Russian market and cut the flow of Russian tourists to Turkey’s resorts. Faced with massive economic damage, Erdogan apologized months later. Soon after, Putin staunchly supported him when he faced an attempted military coup in July 2016, helping to warm ties quickly. In 2018, Moscow and Ankara negotiated a ceasefire and de-escalation deal for the rebel-held Idlib province in northwestern Syria on the border with Turkey and sought to anchor the often-violated agreement with follow-up deals in the next few years. But even as they cooperated on Syria, Moscow and Ankara also vied for influence in Libya, where Russia supported forces loyal to military commander Khalifa Hifter while Turkey backed his Tripoli-based foes. Turkey also aggressively sought to increase its leverage in the former Soviet Central Asian nations competing with Russia and China.
In 2020, Moscow backed off when Turkey’s ally Azerbaijan routed ethnic Armenian forces in the fighting over the breakaway region of Karabakh. Even though Armenia hosted a Russian military base, the Kremlin has engaged in a delicate balancing act, seeking to maintain warm ties with both Azerbaijan and Turkey. While their political interests often clashed, economic ties boomed, with Russia boosting natural gas exports to Turkey via a Black Sea pipeline; by building Turkey’s first nuclear plant; and by providing the NATO member with advanced air defense systems — to Washington’s dismay.
Relations amid the war in Ukraine
Ties with Turkey grew even more important for Putin after he invaded Ukraine in 2022, Europe’s largest conflict since World War II. The West responded with economic sanctions that barred Russia from most Western markets, restricted its access to international financial system, shut transport routes and halted exports of key technologies. Turkey, which didn’t join the sanctions, has emerged as Russia’s key gateway to global markets, strengthening Erdogan’s hand in negotiations with Putin.
While Turkey backed Ukraine’s territorial integrity and supplied Kyiv with weapons, Erdogan echoed Putin in accusing the U.S. and NATO of fomenting the conflict. Putin has praised Erdogan for offering to mediate a settlement. In March 2022, Turkey hosted Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul that soon collapsed, with both Putin and Erdogan blaming the West for their failure. Later that year, Ankara pooled efforts with the United Nations to broker a deal that opened the door for Ukrainian grain exports from its Black Sea ports, an agreement that helped drive down global food prices before falling apart the following year. Turkey’s balancing act in Ukraine is driven by its dependence on the vast Russian market, supplies of natural gas and a flow of tourists. Russia’s focus on Ukraine has eroded its clout in regions where Turkey and other players have tried to take advantage of Moscow's withering influence.
In September 2023, Azerbaijan reclaimed control over all of Karabakh in an one-day blitz while Russian regional peacekeepers stood back. That hurt Russia’s ties with Armenia, which has shifted increasingly toward the West.
Moscow's new look at Syria
Focused on Ukraine, Russia had few resources left for Syria at a time when Hezbollah similarly pulled back its fighters amid the war with Israel and Iranian support for Assad also weakened. Russia tried to sponsor talks on normalizing relations between Turkey and Syria, but Assad stonewalled them, refusing any compromise. Assad’s intransigence helped trigger the Turkey-backed opposition’s offensive in November. The underfunded and demoralized Syrian army quickly crumbled, allowing the rebels to sweep across the country and capture Damascus. Even as it has offered asylum to Assad and his family, Russia has reached out to Syria's new leaders, seeking to ensure security for its troops still there and extend leases on its naval and air bases. At his annual news conference Thursday, Putin said Russia offered Syria's new leaders to use the bases for humanitarian aid deliveries and suggested Moscow could offer other incentives. While Assad's demise dealt a heavy blow to Russia, some believe Moscow could navigate the rapidly changing environment to retain at least some clout. “Syria’s opposition forces well understand that the country’s future is uncertain,” said Nikolay Kozhanov, a consulting fellow with Chathan House’s Russia and Eurasia program, in a commentary. “They want Russia, if not as a friend, then a neutral party.”He noted that “Moscow’s main goal will be to maintain at least a minimal level of influence through a military presence, for example, at its existing bases, or through contacts with other regional players, such as Turkey.”Cagaptay observed that while Turkey would like to see an end to Russia’s military presence in Syria, Ankara’s position will depend on how relations evolve with Washington. “If we see a reset in U.S.-Turkish ties where Turkey thinks it can comfortably lean on the U.S. against Russia, I can see Erdogan adopting a kind of more boisterous tone vis a vis Putin,” he said. But if the U.S. maintains its alliance with the Kurds and stands against Turkey’s effort to push back on Kurdish fighters in northeastern Syria, “Ankara may decide that it needs to continue to play all sides as it has been doing for about a decade now,” Cagaptay said. Putin noted Russia understands Turkey's motives in securing its borders, but he also warned that the Kurds could offer strong resistance if attacked. Emre Ersen, a Russia expert at Istanbul’s Marmara University, also noted that while Assad’s fall will diminish Moscow’s influence, “the relationship between Turkey and Russia will not be devastated by the events in Syria.”“Obviously, they still need to reach out to each other regarding the crisis in Ukraine, but also because they have very significant economic relations,” Ersen said, adding that Erdogan could be expected to seek more concessions from Russia on energy and trade issues.

Israel media report accuses troops of indiscriminate killing of Gaza civilians
AFP/December 20, 2024
JERUSALEM: A leading Israeli newspaper, citing unnamed soldiers serving in Gaza, described indiscriminate killings of Palestinian civilians in the territory’s Netzarim Corridor, prompting a firm rejection Friday from the military. Haaretz, a left-leaning Israeli daily that has faced severe criticism from the country’s right-wing government, quoted soldiers, career officers and reservists who said commanders were given unprecedented authority to operate in the Gaza Strip. They alleged commanders had ordered or allowed the killing of unarmed women, children and men in the Netzarim Corridor, a seven-kilometer-wide (4.3-mile-wide) strip of land that cuts across Gaza from Israel to the Mediterranean, and which has been turned into a military zone. The report quoted an officer who recalled an incident in which a commander had announced that 200 militants were killed, when actually “only 10 were confirmed as known Hamas operatives.”Soldiers meanwhile told Haaretz they received questionable orders to open fire on “anyone who enters” Netzarim. “Anyone crossing the line is a terrorist — no exceptions, no civilians. Everyone’s a terrorist,” a soldier quoted a battalion commander as saying. The soldiers also described how division commanders received “expanded powers” allowing them to bomb buildings or launch air strikes that previously required approval from the army’s top echelons. The allegations contained in the Haaretz report could not be independently verified. In a statement to AFP, the military rejected the accusations. “All activities and operations conducted by (Israeli army) forces in the Gaza Strip, including in the Netzarim Corridor, are carried out in accordance with structured combat procedures, plans and operational orders approved by the highest ranks in the (army),” it said. The military added that “all strikes in the area (of Netzarim) are conducted in accordance with the mandatory procedures and protocols, including targets that are struck in an urgent time frame due to essential operational circumstances where ground forces face immediate threats.” “Incidents that give rise to concerns of deviations from IDF’s orders or ethical standards are thoroughly examined and addressed.” Many soldiers who spoke to Haaretz pointed to a specific commander, Brig. Gen. Yehuda Vach, who last summer took charge of Division 252, which has been based in Netzarim. One of the soldiers said of Vach — who was born in the settlement of Kiryat Arba in the occupied West Bank — that “his worldview and political positions were clearly driving his operational decisions.”Another soldier said Vach had declared “there are no innocents in Gaza.”The military said that the “statements attributed to him... were not made by him.”
“Any claim asserting otherwise is entirely baseless.”The Haaretz report said Israeli soldiers spoke to the newspaper so that the Israeli “people need to know how this war really looks like, and what serious acts some commanders and fighters are committing inside Gaza.”
“They need to know the inhuman scenes we’re witnessing.”Palestinian militant group Hamas, whose unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack on Israel sparked the current war, also reacted to the Haaretz report. It said the testimonies offered “new evidence of unprecedented war crimes and full-fledged ethnic cleansing operations, carried out in an organized manner.”Hamas, which has also been accused of indiscriminate killings of Israelis and other civilians on October 7 last year, demanded that the United Nations and the International Court of Justice “document these testimonies and take the necessary steps to stop the ongoing genocide in the Gaza Strip.”

Israel's Netanyahu eyes Iran after triumphs over Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria
Samia Nakhoul/Reuters/December 20, 2024
DUBAI (Reuters) - 2025 will be a year of reckoning for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his country's arch foe Iran.
The veteran Israeli leader is set to cement his strategic goals: tightening his military control over Gaza, thwarting Iran's nuclear ambitions and capitalising on the dismantling of Tehran's allies -- Palestinian Hamas, Lebanon's Hezbollah and the removal of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.
Assad's collapse, the elimination of the top leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah and the destruction of their military structure mark a succession of monumental wins for Netanyahu. Without Syria, the alliances Tehran has nurtured for decades have unraveled. As Iran's influence weakens, Israel is emerging as the dominant power in the region. Netanyahu is poised to zero in on Iran's nuclear ambitions and missile program, applying an unyielding focus to dismantling and neutralising these strategic threats to Israel. Iran, Middle East observers say, faces a stark choice: Either continue its nuclear enrichment program or scale back its atomic activities and agree to negotiations. "Iran is very vulnerable to an Israeli attack, particularly against its nuclear program," said Joost R. Hiltermann, Middle East and North Africa Program Director of the International Crisis Group. "I wouldn't be surprised if Israel did it, but that doesn't get rid of Iran." "If they (Iranians) do not back down, Trump and Netanyahu might strike, as nothing now prevents them," said Palestinian analyst Ghassan al-Khatib, referring to President-elect Donald Trump. Khatib argued that the Iranian leadership, having demonstrated pragmatism in the past, may be willing to compromise to avert a military confrontation. Trump, who withdrew from a 2015 agreement between Iran and six world powers aimed at curbing Tehran's nuclear goals, is likely to step up sanctions on Iran's oil industry, despite calls to return to negotiations from critics who see diplomacy as a more effective long-term policy.
DEFINING LEGACY
Amid the turmoil of Iran and Gaza, Netanyahu's long-running corruption trial, which resumed in December, will also play a defining role in shaping his legacy. For the first time since the outbreak of the Gaza war in 2023, Netanyahu took the stand in proceedings that have bitterly divided Israelis. With 2024 coming to an end, the Israeli prime minister will likely agree to sign a ceasefire accord with Hamas to halt the 14-month-old Gaza war and free Israeli hostages held in the enclave, according to sources close to the negotiations. But Gaza would stay under Israeli military control in the absence of a post-war U.S. plan for Israel to cede power to the Palestinian Authority (PA), which Netanyahu rejects. Arab states have shown little inclination to press Israel to compromise or push the decaying PA to overhaul its leadership to take over."Israel will remain in Gaza militarily in the foreseeable future because any withdrawal carries the risk of Hamas reorganising. Israel believes that the only way to maintain the military gains is to stay in Gaza," Khatib told Reuters. For Netanyahu, such a result would mark a strategic victory, consolidating a status quo that aligns with his vision: Preventing Palestinian statehood while ensuring Israel's long-term control over Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem -- territories internationally recognised as integral to a future Palestinian state. The Gaza war erupted when Hamas militants stormed into Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. Israel responded with an air and land offensive that has killed 45,000 people, health authorities there say, displaced 1.2 million and left much of the enclave in ruins. While the ceasefire pact would bring an immediate end to the Gaza hostilities, it would not address the deeper, decades-old Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Arab and Western officials say. On the ground, prospects for a Palestinian state, an option repeatedly ruled out by Netanyahu's government, have become increasingly unattainable, with Israeli settler leaders optimistic that Trump will align closely with their views. A surge in settler violence and the increasing confidence of the settler movement - highway billboards in some West Bank areas bear the message in Arabic "No Future in Palestine" - reflect a growing squeeze on Palestinians. Even if the Trump administration were to push for an end to the conflict, "any resolution would be on Israel’s terms," said Hiltermann of the Crisis Group.
"It's over when it comes to a Palestinian state, but the Palestinians are still there," he said. In Trump's previous term, Netanyahu secured several diplomatic wins, including the “Deal of the Century,” a U.S.-backed peace plan which Trump floated in 2020 to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The plan, if implemented, marks a dramatic shift in U.S. policy and international agreements by overtly aligning with Israel and deviating sharply from a long-standing land-for-peace framework that has historically guided negotiations. It would allow Israel to annex vast stretches of land in the occupied West Bank, including Israeli settlements and the Jordan Valley. It would also recognise Jerusalem as the "undivided capital of Israel" - effectively denying Palestinian claims to East Jerusalem as their capital, a central aspiration in their statehood goals and in accordance with U.N. resolutions.
SYRIA AT CRITICAL CROSSROADS
Across the border from Israel, Syria stands at a critical juncture following the overthrow of Assad by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel forces, led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, better known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani. Golani now faces the monumental task of consolidating control over a fractured Syria, where the military and police force have collapsed. HTS has to rebuild from scratch, securing borders and maintaining internal stability against threats from jihadists, remnants of the Assad regime, and other adversaries. The greatest fear among Syrians and observers alike is whether HTS, once linked to al-Qaeda but now presenting itself as a Syrian nationalist force to gain legitimacy, reverts to a rigid Islamist ideology. The group’s ability - or failure - to navigate this balance will shape the future of Syria, home to diverse communities of Sunnis, Shi'ites, Alawites, Kurds, Druze and Christians. "If they succeed in that (Syrian nationalism) there's hope for Syria, but if they revert to their comfort zone of quite strongly ideologically-tainted Islamism, then it's going to be divisive in Syria," said Hiltermann. "You could have chaos and a weak Syria for a long time, just like we saw in Libya and Iraq."

Israeli airstrikes kill at least 25 Palestinians in Gaza, medics say
Reuters/December 20, 2024
CAIRO (Reuters) - Israeli airstrikes killed at least 25 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip on Friday, medics said, including at least eight in an apartment in the Nuseirat refugee camp and at least 10, including seven children, in the town of Jabalia.
Mediators have yet to secure a ceasefire between Israel and the Islamist group Hamas after more than a year of conflict. Sources close to the discussions told Reuters on Thursday that Qatar and Egypt had been able to resolve some differences between the warring parties but sticking points remained. Israel began its assault on Gaza after Hamas-led fighters attacked Israeli communities on Oct. 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking over 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. Israel says about 100 hostages are still being held, but it is unclear how many are alive. Authorities in Gaza say Israel's campaign has killed more than 45,000 Palestinians and displaced most of the population of 2.3 million. Much of the coastal enclave is in ruins.

For thousands of Jews, Israel still doesn't feel safe after the Oct. 7 attacks. So they're leaving

Laurie Kellman/The Associated Press/December 20, 2024
LONDON (AP) — Leaving Israel is easier, Shira Z. Carmel thinks, by saying it's just for now. But she knows better. For the Israeli-born singer and an increasing number of relatively well-off Israelis, the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack shattered any sense of safety and along with it, Israel's founding promise: to be the world's safe haven for Jews. That day, thousands of Hamas militants blew past the country's border defenses, killed 1,200 people and dragged 250 more into Gaza in a siege that caught the Israeli army by surprise and stunned a nation that prides itself on military prowess. This time, during what became known as Israel's 9/11, the army didn't come for hours.
Ten days later, a pregnant Carmel, her husband and their toddler boarded a flight to Australia, which was looking for people in her husband's profession. And they spun the explanation to friends and family as something other than permanent — “relocation" is the easier-to-swallow term — acutely aware of the familial strain and the shame that have shadowed Israelis who leave for good.
“We told them we're going to get out of the line of fire for awhile,” Carmel said more than a year later from her family's new home in Melbourne. “It wasn't a hard decision. But it was very hard to talk to them about it. It was even hard to admit it to ourselves."
Thousands of Israelis have left the country since Oct. 7, 2023, according to government statistics and immigration tallies released by destination countries such as Canada and Germany. There's concern about whether it will drive a “brain drain” in sectors like medicine and tech. Migration experts say it's possible people leaving Israel will surpass the number of immigrants to Israel in 2024, according to Sergio DellaPergola, a statistician and professor emeritus of Hebrew University in Jerusalem.
“In my view, this year people entering will be smaller than the total of the exit," he said. “And this is quite unique in the existence of the State of Israel.”
Early information points to a surge of Israelis leaving
The Oct. 7 effect on Israeli emigration is enough for prominent Israelis to acknowledge the phenomenon publicly — and warn of rising antisemitism elsewhere.
“There is one thing that worries me in particular: talks about leaving the country. This must not happen,” former premier Naftali Bennett, a staunch critic of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, tweeted in June after a conversation with friends who were leaving. Israel, he wrote, needs to retain the talent. “Who wants to return to the days of the wandering Jew, without real freedom, without a state, subject to every anti-Semitic whim?”Thousands of Israelis have opted to pay the financial, emotional and social costs of moving out since the Oct. 7 attack, according to government statistics and families who spoke to The Associated Press in recent months after emigrating to Canada, Spain and Australia. Israel's overall population continues to grow toward 10 million people. But it's possible that 2024 ends with more Israelis leaving the country than coming in. That's even as Israel and Hezbollah reached a fragile ceasefire along the border with Lebanon and Israel and Hamas inch toward a pause in Gaza. Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics estimated in September that 40,600 Israelis departed long-term over the first seven months of 2024, a 59% increase over the same period a year earlier, when 25,500 people left. Monthly, 2,200 more people departed this year than in 2023, CBS reported. The Israeli Ministry of Immigration and Absorption, which does not deal with people leaving, said more than 33,000 people have moved to Israel since the start of the war, about on par with previous years. The interior minister refused to comment for this story. The numbers are equally dramatic in destination countries. More than 18,000 Israelis applied for German citizenship in 2024, more than double the same period in 2023 and three times that of the year before, the Interior Ministry reported in September. Canada, which has a three-year work visa program for Israelis and Palestinians fleeing the war, received 5,759 applications for work permits from Israeli citizens between January and October this year, the government told The Associated Press. In 2023, that number was 1,616 applications, and a year earlier the tally was 1,176 applications, according to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.
‘They want to wake up in the morning and enjoy life’
Other clues, too, point to a notable departure of Israelis since the Oct. 7 attacks. Gil Fire, deputy director of Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, said that some of its star specialists with fellowship postings of a few years in other countries began to waver about returning. “Before the war, they always came back and it was not really considered an option to stay. And during the war we started to see a change,” he said. “They said to us, ‘We will stay another year, maybe two years, maybe more.’”Fire says it’s “an issue of concern” enough for him to plan in-person visits with these doctors in the coming months to try to draw them back to Israel. Michal Harel, who moved with her husband to Toronto in 2019, said that almost immediately after the attacks the phone began ringing — with other Israelis seeking advice about moving to Canada. On Nov. 23, 2023, the couple set up a website to help Israelis navigate moving, which can cost at least 100,000 Israeli shekels, or about $28,000, Harel and other Israeli relocation experts said. Not everyone in Israel can just pack up and move overseas. Many of those who have made the move have foreign passports, jobs at multinational corporations or can work remotely. People in Gaza have even less choice. The vast majority of Gaza's 2.3 million people have been displaced by relentless Israeli bombing since Oct. 7, 2023, yet no one has been able to leave the enclave since May. Before then, at least 100,000 Palestinians are believed to have left Gaza.
Health officials in Gaza say Israeli bombing has killed more than 45,000 people. Speaking by phone last month, Harel reported that the site has received views from 100,000 unique visitors and 5,000 direct contacts in 2024 alone. “It's people who want to move quickly with families, to wake up in the morning and enjoy life,” she said. “Right now (in Israel), it's trauma, trauma, trauma.”
“Some of them,” Harel added, "they want to keep everything a secret.”
Leaving Zion, a threat to Israel and a shame?
Aliya — the Hebrew term for immigration, literally the “ascent” of Jews into Israel — has always been part of the country's plan. But “yerida” — the term used for leaving the country, literally the “descent” of Jews from Israel to the diaspora, emphatically has not. For Israel's first decades of independence, the government strongly discouraged departing Israelis, who were seen in some cases as cowardly and even treasonous. A sacred trust and a social contract took root in Israeli society. The terms go — or went — like this: Israeli citizens would serve in the military and pay high taxes. In exchange, the army would keep them safe. Meanwhile, it’s every Jew’s obligation to stay, work and fight for Israel’s survival. “Emigration was a threat, especially in the early years (when) there were problems of nation-building. In later decades, Israel became more established and more self-confident,” said Ori Yehudai, a professor of Israel studies at Ohio State University and the author of “Leaving Zion,” a history of Israeli emigration. The sense of shame is more of a social dynamic now, he said, but “people still feel they have to justify their decision to move.”Shira Carmel says she has no doubt about her decision. She'd long objected to Netanyahu's government's efforts to overhaul the legal system, and was one of the first women to don the blood-red "Handmaid's Tale" robes that became a fixture of the anti-government protests of 2023. She was terrified as a new mom, and a pregnant one, during the Hamas attack, and appalled at having to tell her toddler that they were gathering in the bomb shelter for “hugging parties" with the neighbors. This was not the life she wanted. Meanwhile, Australia beckoned. Carmel's brother had lived there for two decades. The couple had the equivalent of a green card due to Carmel's husband's profession. In the days after the attack, Carmel's brother alerted her to the possibility of a flight out of Israel for free, if on very short notice, which she confirmed with the Australian embassy in Israel. Basic logic, she says, pointed toward moving.
And yet. Carmel recalls the frenzied hours before the flight out in which she said to her husband in the privacy of their bedroom: “My God, are we really doing this?” They decided not to decide, opting instead for: “We're just getting on a plane for now, being grateful.” They packed lightly. On the ground half a world away, weeks became months. And they decided: “I’m not going to go back to try to give birth in the war.” In December, they told their families back in Israel that they were staying “for now.”“We don't define it as ‘forever,’" Carmel said Tuesday. “But we are for sure staying for the foreseeable future.”

Israel and Hamas appear close to a ceasefire deal. These are the sticking points
Samy Magdy And Tia Goldenberg/CAIRO (AP)/December 20, 2024
CAIRO (AP) — Israel and Hamas appear closer than they have been in months to agreeing to a ceasefire that could wind down the 14-month war in Gaza and bring home dozens of people held hostage there. But the sides have come close before, only to have talks collapse over various disagreements. This round of negotiations also faces hurdles. The agreement would take place in phases and include a halt in fighting, an exchange of captive Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, and a surge in aid to the besieged Gaza Strip, according to Egyptian, Hamas and American officials. The last phase would include the release of any remaining hostages, an end to the war and talks on reconstruction. Although Israel and Hamas have expressed optimism that a deal is close, key sticking points remain over the exchange of hostages for prisoners and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, people involved in the talks say.
“They are working through the names of hostages who would come out in the first phase — the names of the prisoners that would be released as part of the exchange. And then some specific details about the disposition of Israeli forces during the ceasefire,” White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Wednesday on MSNBC's “Morning Joe." Here’s a closer look at the key issues holding up a deal:
Hostage release
During its Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel, Hamas and other groups took about 250 people hostages and brought them to Gaza. A previous truce in November 2023 freed more than 100 hostages, while others have been rescued or their remains have been recovered over the past year.
Israel says about 100 hostages remain in Gaza — at least a third of whom it believes were killed during the Oct. 7 attack or died in captivity. The warring sides are haggling over which hostages would be included in an initial release, according to the Egyptian and Hamas officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were discussing ongoing negotiations. There have also been disputes about how many hostages will be included, Israeli media reported.. The first batch is expected to be made up mostly of women, older people and people with medical conditions. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also is facing growing pressure from the families of hostages to secure a deal that would release all of them at once. They fear the deal could break down or that loved ones who aren't immediately released could die in captivity.
Palestinian prisoners
As part of the deal, Israel is expected to free hundreds of imprisoned Palestinians, including dozens who were convicted in bloody attacks. Israel has a history of lopsided prisoner releases, and hundreds were freed in the November 2023 deal. But the officials who spoke to the AP say the sides still disagree over the exact number and names of the prisoners to be freed. Hamas wants high-profile prisoners included. Netanyahu's governing coalition includes hardliners who oppose such releases, with some even pledging to quit the government if too many concessions are made. They point to a 2011 prisoner release that included the former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, a mastermind of the Oct. 7 attacks who was killed by Israel in October. Israeli media have also reported that there are differences over whether the more serious prisoners who are released will be exiled to third countries.
Palestinians returning home
The war has displaced an estimated 90% of Gaza’s 2.3 million people, according to U.N. estimates, with the hard-hit northern sector of the territory largely emptied of its prewar population. During the first phase of the developing deal, Israel is expected to withdraw troops from Palestinian population centers and allow some of the displaced to return home. But the extent of the pullback and the number of people allowed to return must still be worked out, the officials say. According to the Egyptian and Hamas officials, Israel is prepared to allow people to return north to Gaza City, the territory's largest city. But it does not want people to return farther north to areas close to the Israeli border. Israeli troops remain active in these areas, battling what Israel says are pockets of insurgency. Israel appears concerned that militants could renew attacks from there if the displaced are allowed to return. But critics say Israel has other intentions. Netanyahu has considered a controversial proposal by former generals to empty the north and cut it off from humanitarian aid as part of a plan to starve out any militants who remain there. Moshe Yaalon, a former Israeli defense minister, said Israel was carrying out ethnic cleansing in those areas of northern Gaza. Netanyahu has also said Israel must maintain long-term control over a strategic strip of land along Gaza's border with Egypt, as well as the freedom for Israeli troops to operate against militants in the future. Hamas is demanding a full withdrawal as part of any ceasefire. In an interview Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. remains hopeful that a deal can be finalized before President Joe Biden leaves office on Jan. 20. “Everyone is pushing on this,” Blinken told MSNBC. “We want to get it over the finish line. We want to get the hostages home. We want to get a ceasefire so that people can finally have relief in Gaza.”

US says new Syria rulers helping in hunt for reporter Tice
AFP/December 21, 2024
WASHINGTON: US officials said Friday that Syria’s new leaders had assisted in the hunt for missing journalist Austin Tice, with searches underway at sites of interest. US diplomats, paying the first visit to Damascus since Islamist-led rebels toppled strongman Bashar Assad earlier this month, said they told the new Islamist-led authorities of their priority of finding Tice and other missing Americans. “We feel it’s our duty as the US government to press on until we know with certainty what happened to him, where he is and to bring him home,” said Roger Carstens, the US pointman on hostages. He said that he worked Friday with the new Syrian leadership to search a location where Tice could have been held. “There are other locations that need to be searched in the coming days, weeks and months, and we’ll be working with the interim authorities,” Carstens told reporters after the trip. Tice was working for Agence France-Presse, McClatchy News, The Washington Post, CBS and other media outlets when he was detained at a checkpoint in August 2012. Carstens said that US teams were not yet authorized to operate in Syria but that he has reached out to non-governmental groups as well as journalists for assistance. “The bottom line is that over 12 years, we’ve been able to pinpoint about six facilities that we believe have a high possibility of having had Austin Tice at one point or another,” he said. Carstens said up to three more sites of interests have been added recently and that he hoped for thorough searches of all of them. Tice’s mother Debra said earlier this month that she had information that her son was alive. Carstens said that the United States was also seeking information about other Americans including Majd Kamalmaz, a Syrian-American psychotherapist believed to have died after being detained under the Assad government in 2017.

Palestinians accuse Israeli settlers of West Bank mosque fire
Reuters/Fri, December 20, 2024
Israeli settlers set fire to a mosque in the occupied West Bank, Palestinian residents said on Friday, and video showed "Revenge", "Death to Arabs" and other slogans had been spray-painted in Hebrew on the building's facade. Black burn marks were visible at the entrance to the Muslim holy site in the northern West Bank village of Marda. The fire was put out before it could spread much further. Israeli police said they were collecting testimonies and evidence at the scene. Nasfat al-Khufash, head of the Marda village council, said: "On Friday, Marda awoke to a systematic terror attack by a group of settlers who set fire to Bir al-Walideen mosque.""These attacks by settler groups are continuous and systematic," he said. The Israeli police and Shin Bet security services said in a joint statement: "We see this incident as extremely serious and will act resolutely to bring the perpetrators to justice for rigorous trial." The Palestinian Authority foreign ministry assailed the attack as the latest in a series of violations and crimes by Israeli settlers and appealed to the United Nations Security Council for help protecting Palestinians. The U.N. says more than 700,000 Israelis live among 3 million Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, lands Israel captured in 1967. Most countries deem Israeli settlements built on the captured land to be illegal. Israel disputes this and cites historical and biblical ties to the land. Violence has surged across the West Bank since the Oct. 7, 2023, attack led by Hamas militants on southern Israel, which triggered Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza and a wider conflict on several fronts.

UN extends peacekeeping mission between Syria, Israeli-occupied Golan Heights
Reuters/December 21, 2024
UNITED NATIONS: The United Nations Security Council on Friday extended a long-running peacekeeping mission between Syria and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights for six months and expressed concern that military activities in the area could escalate tensions. Since a lightning rebel offensive ousted Syrian President Bashar Assad earlier this month, Israeli troops have moved into the demilitarised zone — created after the 1973 Arab-Israeli war — that is patrolled by the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). Israeli officials have described the move as a limited and temporary measure to ensure the security of Israel’s borders but have given no indication of when the troops might be withdrawn. In the resolution adopted on Friday, the Security Council stressed “that both parties must abide by the terms of the 1974 Disengagement of Forces Agreement between Israel and the Syrian Arab Republic and scrupulously observe the ceasefire.” It expressed concern that “the ongoing military activities conducted by any actor in the area of separation continue to have the potential to escalate tensions between Israel and the Syrian Arab Republic, jeopardize the ceasefire between the two countries, and pose a risk to the local civilian population and United Nations personnel on the ground.” Armed forces from Israel and Syria are not allowed in the demilitarized zone — a 400-square-km (155-square-mile) “Area of Separation” — under the ceasefire arrangement. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Thursday: “Let me be clear: There should be no military forces in the area of separation other than UN peacekeepers – period.” He also said Israeli airstrikes on Syria were violations of the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and “must stop.”

Palestinian officials accuse Israeli settlers of mosque arson in West Bank
AFP/December 20, 2024
NABLUS: Palestinian officials reported on Friday that Israeli settlers had set fire to a mosque in the occupied West Bank, an act Israeli police said was under investigation. According to Abdallah Kamil, the governor of Salfit, the attack targeted the Bir Al-Walidain mosque in the village of Marda. “A group of settlers carried out an attack early this morning by setting fire to the mosque,” Kamil said in a statement. In addition to the arson, the settlers vandalized the mosque’s walls with “racist graffiti” in Hebrew, he said.Photographs shared on social media showed slogans spray-painted in black including “Death to Arabs.”Villagers of Marda confirmed the details, with one resident telling AFP: “They set fire to the entrance of the mosque and wrote Hebrew slogans on its walls.”Another resident said the fire was extinguished before it could engulf the entire structure. An AFP photographer at the scene saw villagers gathering at the mosque to assess the extent of the damage. Governor Kamil alleged that settlers had previously entered the village “under the protection of the Israeli army,” and that similar acts of vandalism and graffiti had been reported in nearby areas. The Palestinian foreign ministry in Ramallah condemned the incident, calling it a “blatant act of racism” and a reflection of the ” widespread incitement campaigns against our people carried out by elements of the extremist right-wing ruling government” of Israel. Israeli police and the domestic Shin Bet security agency described the incident as a matter of “great severity.”They said they would “act decisively to ensure accountability for those responsible,” adding an investigation was underway, with authorities gathering testimony and evidence from the scene. Violence in the Israeli-occupied West Bank has intensified since the war in Gaza began on October 7 last year following Hamas’s attack on Israel. Since the start of the war, at least 803 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank by Israeli forces or settlers, according to the Palestinian health ministry. In the same period, Palestinian attacks have claimed the lives of at least 24 Israelis in the West Bank, based on Israeli official data.
Israel has occupied the West Bank since the 1967 Arab-Israeli war.

US charges Iran Guards captain in 2022 killing of American in Iraq
Reuters/December 20, 2024
Mohammad Reza Nouri, 36, helped plan an attack on Troell, 45, who was working at an English language institute in central Baghdad, according to a complaint unsealed in U.S. Federal Court in Manhattan. The attack was carried out in retaliation for the U.S. killing of the Revolutionary Guards' top commander Qassem Soleimani in a 2020 drone strike, according to the complaint. "The Department of Justice will not tolerate terrorists and authoritarian regimes targeting and murdering Americans anywhere in the world," Attorney General Merrick Garland said in a statement. Nouri is already in custody in Iraq after being convicted, along with four Iraqis, in that country for Troell's murder. All five were sentenced to life in prison in Iraq last year. Nouri is facing eight charges in U.S. court, including murder of a U.S. national and providing material support to terrorism resulting in death. The United States considers the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization. It was not yet clear if Nouri had an attorney. Iran's mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The complaint accuses Nouri of collecting personal information on Troell, whom he appears to have believed was an American or Israeli intelligence officer, and recruiting operatives to target him. Troell was shot and killed on Nov. 7, 2022, after a heavily armed gunman forced him to stop while he was driving home with his wife, according to U.S. authorities.

Trump Orders Europe to Buy More U.S. Oil and Gas—or Face Tariffs
Will Neal/The Daily Beast/December 20, 2024
President-elect Donald Trump took a brief hiatus from the U.S. government’s shutdown crisis Friday morning to re-up his threats of a trade war with the nation’s closest allies. “I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas,” Trump posted to Truth Social on Friday morning.“Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!” he added. Who exactly Trump “told” within the 27-member, multi-institutional bloc remains at this stage something of a mystery. But it’s not the first time he’s made these threats, having campaigned earlier this year on a platform for imposing tariffs of up to 20 percent on all goods imported into the U.S.The threats also carry echoes of the earlier trade war he waged against the EU during the first half of his earlier stint in the White House, lambasting European countries for treating the U.S. like “a piggy bank that everybody’s robbing.”In the meantime, however, Trump arguably has more pressing things to worry about, after a number of Republican congressional representatives defied him on Thursday night to vote down a spending bill he and tech billionaire buddy Elon Musk were backing. As of Friday morning, the House remains locked in a desperate scrabble to approve some sort of spending bill to avert a government shutdown at midnight and the holiday travel chaos it would inevitably precede.

The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on December 20-21/2024
The Crusades: ‘White Supremacist’ Ventures Defined by ‘Injustices and Unspeakable Tragedies’?
Raymond Ibrahim/The Stream/December 20/2024
In recent articles discussing Pete Hegseth’s pro-Crusader views and tattoos, we saw how the “Left” and its media mouthpiece rely on the Fake History version of the Crusades. We also exposed the true source of their fears, namely, Christians finally realizing that the highest virtue of their religion is not being a doormat but rather standing up against evil.
There are, however, two other noteworthy aspects to the Left’s attack on Hegseth.
White on Brown Violence?
The first is this notion that anyone who holds a favorable view of the Crusades is automatically a “white supremacist.” This bizarre claim was made in virtually every article and report written about Hegseth’s pro-Crusader views, including a New York Times piece titled, “Pete Hegseth and His ‘Battle Cry’ for a New Christian Crusade.” It says that the Jerusalem (or Crusader) Cross and the Latin phrase Deus vult (“God wills it”) — both of which are tattooed on Hegseth’s frame — are “used by white supremacists.”
This connection is apparently based on the fact that the overwhelming majority of history’s Crusaders were Europeans, and the overwhelming majority of their enemies were Muslims. But this dichotomy is based on something else: the Muslim conquest of non-European lands.
Once Islam exploded out of Arabia in the seventh century, it conquered all of North Africa and the Middle East, which was almost entirely Christian. Those Christians, who were not European, were quickly subdued — killed, converted to Islam, or living as dhimmis, cowed subjects of the Islamic state.
All that was left of Christendom was Europe (though portions of it were also conquered, such as Spain and later Eastern Europe). In other words, all that were left to fight on behalf of or defend Christendom were white people.
Yet this fact has now become imbued with “racism.” Those who are obsessed with identity politics could care less why it just so happened to be white people who finally responded to nonstop Muslim aggression and expansion — the reason being that they were all that was left of free Christendom. Rather, all they see is white vs. nonwhite, a formula which always makes the former the aggressor, the latter the victim.
So now, to like or appreciate the Crusades is no longer to like or appreciate just causes in defense of the weak, but to harbor “white supremacist” tendencies. (Such thinking oddly makes me, your friendly neighborhood Mr. Ibrahim, a “white supremacist.”) It is just name-calling to dissuade people from holding a favorable view of the Crusades, which now becomes tantamount to being racist.
All Wars Are Tragic
The other noteworthy aspect that came out in the plethora of hit pieces on Hegseth concerns the knee-jerk apologies offered by those who do hold favorable views of the Crusades. The NYT and other media quoted several scholars who hold a more objective view of the Crusades but still offered the caveat that many horrible things occurred during them. This apparently includes Hegseth himself:
Mr. Hegseth has written that while the Crusades were filled with injustice and unspeakable tragedy, the alternative would have been “horrific,” because it is Western civilization that has nurtured the values of “freedom” and “equal justice.”
Of course there were “injustices and unspeakable tragedy” during the Crusades. But the impulse of pointing this out whenever the Crusades are discussed raises an important question: Has there ever been a war — especially one spread over two centuries — that did not contain “injustices and unspeakable tragedy”? No, there has not. Even the most romanticized wars of patriotic lore contained atrocities, rape, and injustices. That, after all, is the nature of war — all wars.
So why is it always and only for the Crusades that we must forever offer caveats and clear our throats when discussing? Why don’t we do that when discussing, say, the Revolutionary War, World War I, etc. — all of which had atrocities, and from the “good guys”? Who now flatly condemns America’s role in World War II because American GIs raped 14,000 civilian women in Germany, France, and England? Who begins every conversation about America’s role in WWII by referencing these mass rapes as proof that the war on Hitler was illegitimate?
In short “bad things” happen in all wars. Though that is a given, it rarely besmirches the validity of any war — except, of course, the Crusades (even though, in reality, the “injustices and unspeakable tragedies” that occurred at the hands of the Crusaders were often mild compared to those committed in modern wars, not to mention those committed by their Muslim enemies, though all of these get a pass).
To be fair, we either must start hemming and hawing and wringing our hands in regret every time we mention any war, or stop singling out the Crusades for such treatment, always holding them to an impossibly high standard that has never been achieved.
**Raymond Ibrahim, author of Defenders of the West and Sword and Scimitar, is the Distinguished Senior Shillman Fellow at the Gatestone Institute and the Judith Rosen Friedman Fellow at the Middle East Forum.

Iranian Regime Mouthpiece 'Kayhan' Comes Out Against Turkish President Erdoğan 'Who Is Working To Revive The Ottoman Caliphate'
MEMRI/December 20, 2024
Iran, Turkey | Special Dispatch No. 11740
In a December 16, 2024 article titled "This Neighbor Is No Longer Trustworthy, the Iranian regime mouthpiece Kayhan labelled Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as "opportunistic" and accused him of assisting the Syrian rebels, particularly Hay'at Tahrir Al-Sham, and of working to revive the Ottoman caliphate.
The Ottoman Empire. Source: Commons.wikimedia.org, accessed December 19, 2024.
The territorial distributions of the Sykes-Picot Agreement. Source: Rferl.org, May 13, 2016.
The Middle East, after being divided into separate states. Source: Mapsofworld.com, accessed December 19, 2024.
In the article, Kayhan complained that while Erdogan presented himself as concerned for the Syrian people and committed to the Palestinian cause, he was actually using armed terrorist organizations to work against the interests of the neighboring peoples. It pointed out recent statements by Erdogan, whom it called a self-appointed caliph,[1]at the conference of the Justice and Development Party that he heads. At the conference, Erdogan explained Turkey's involvement in Syria and said that had the region not been divided up, "the cities of Aleppo, Sham [Damascus], Hama, and Homs would have remained Turkish like Gaziantep, Antep, and Istanbul, and we would still be a single state."
Erdogan was referring to how, after the 600-year-old Ottoman Empire collapsed following World War I, the British and French established their areas of influence in the region, and it was these powers that carved up the modern Middle East. Thus, the states of Syria, Lebanon, Mandatory Palestine, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf emirates had been created.
Kayhan went on to warn Erdogan of the danger of his activity to strengthen the terrorist organizations that have taken control of Syria, saying that they could eventually turn against his regime.
The following are the main points of the Kayhan article:
Kayhan: The Turkish Government Of Today – And Erdogan Himself – Will Have No Place Among The Arabs
"In the early 2000s, Turkey unveiled the new Turkey, marked by relations with its neighbors based on a policy of 'minimizing issues with neighbors down to zero', which is the foreign policy doctrine of the 'Justice and Development' party. Erdogan, who was experienced as Mayor of Istanbul, instituted – this time as Prime Minister – this policy, which could have made the conditions in the region different from what they are in that country today. The public believed in Erdogan's policy as Prime Minister and President, and until the terror attacks against Syria in 2012, when he said: 'We are acting based on this doctrine. That is why we don't want a problem on our border with Syria.'
"Later, with the Syrian war and Erdogan's support of terrorists causing the problem of the lack of security in Syria, it was proven that he is in fact orchestrating the crisis in Syria, and that not only is he not acting in line with the policy of no problems with the neighbors, but that every day he was adding to the problems of both countries, Syria and Turkey, which until 2012 had maintained good relations.
"However, Erdogan's actions in the region are intended to revive the Ottoman Caliphate, and he sees himself as the Caliph who separated areas of Syria from the Ottoman government at the end of Ottoman rule. Erdogan forgets that if the basis for the present day's geographical division of the region were based on the sovereignty of governments from the previous century, many existing areas would be changed, and that, as many argue, the Turkish government as it stands today, and indeed Erdogan himself, would have no place among the Arabs.
"In recent days, we witnessed 'Erdogan's delusion' during his speech at the eighth regional conference of the 'Justice and Development' party, where he commented on developments in Syria, saying: 'The leaders of the Turkish opposition always ask what Turkey is doing in Syria. I say to them, do you know why Turkey is in Syria and why it holds these stances? Had the region not been divided after the Second World War, the cities of Aleppo, Sham [Damascus], Hama, and Homs would have still been Turkish cities, like Gaziantep, Antep, and Istanbul, and we would still be a single state.'
"A few points should be noted about the Turkish President's actions and his overt and hidden aims in Syria:
"Turkey's intervention in the Syrian civil war began diplomatically only to escalate militarily. The involvement of the Turkish government grew gradually over 13 years, during which diplomatic interventions turned into providing military support to terrorists in July 2011, border disputes in 2012, direct military interventions between 2016-2022, and most recently, showing overt support for Hay'at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) and affiliated groups and arming them – which brought about the fall of the legal government of Bashar Al-Assad and the conquest of cities and Syria's capital. Terrorists from the Caucasus, Chechnya, etc. traveled through Turkey to Syria, along with their families. Therefore, the question is: if Turkey's primary problem and concern is terrorism, why did its borders serve as passage for terrorists for the past 13 years?"
"Erdoğan Should Be Seen As An Opportunist"
"After the fall of Assad's government and the establishment of Hay'at Tahrir Al-Sham in Damascus, the Turkish President [Erdogan] made a statement that surprised everyone who has been following events in the region and Turkey's behavior over the past decade. He said: 'Turkey's second century has begun; we are about to enter a new era, and will continue on our path of fighting to destroy terrorism.' This rhetoric is frequently used by American officials in the region. The Americans created ISIS, armed it heavily, and sicced it [to kill] the oppressed people of Iraq and Syria. Later they pretended to oppose it, even though everyone knew where that bloodthirsty group came from.
"The pathetic policy of the Americans is now being used by Erdogan regarding current terror groups, as public opinion has apparently fallen asleep, celebrating the fall of Assad and Damascus, failing to see who recently rolled out the red carpet before the terrorists in Syria while [falsely] saying that he shares the sorrow of those who, under the hateful fire of terrorists and the killing of the children of Gaza by the child-slaughtering Zionists, [hold] international summits to fight terrorism, and loudly speak out to condemn the phenomenon of terrorism!
"Erdogan should be seen as an opportunist who was aware of the Syrians' difficult economic conditions as they struggled against both starvation and a lack of security. Facing such a situation, instead of helping this nation as promised at the Astana summit[2] – a promise it never kept – Turkey inflicted political instability on them for a long time, by establishing several armed groups which [impacted] the fate of the Syrian nation.
"Erdogan, the orchestrator and policy director in this arena, seized on Russia's preoccupation with the war against Ukraine and the Resistance Axis' conflict in Lebanon and Gaza as an opportunity to achieve his goals behind the scenes. In the case of Syria, Ankara uses double standards, and describes itself as a supporter of the Palestinian people and the resistance, accusing the Zionist regime. On the other hand, it made a secret agreement with the Zionist regime to carry out a joint operation, one day after the ceasefire in Lebanon, to facilitate the movement of the terrorists toward central Syria, and [bring about] Assad's fall, cutting off the corridor of support for the Resistance Axis, which extended to the Mediterranean Sea. In order to clarify Turkey's goals in the current situation, one must note motives of religion, security, economic opportunities, solving Turkey's refugee problem, and so forth.
"Turkey Is Playing With Fire – But Its Leaders Think They Can Control This Game"
"What is certain is that despite Erdogan's bogus triumphant pride at the fall of the Assad government and the chaos in Syria, he has no clear outlook for his government. The arrival of Hay'at Tahrir Al-Sham and its six satellite groups – which sometimes have different and contradictory aims – heralds a new war. Despite Turkey's awareness of [this war's] advantages and denial of being involved, [this war] is not without its risks for Erdogan's government.
"The fact is, the armed groups know they are not subject to any official or diplomatic regulations, and therefore, there is concern that in the not-too-distant future, the armed groups that are supported by Turkey today may tomorrow point their guns at those who armed them [i.e. Turkey].
"Erdogan should remember the fact that he is entering into a dangerous gamble. Today, Turkey is playing with fire, even if its leaders think they can control the game. Turkey should know that these are still the early days, and by betting on the spark it lit, which has now spread to Syria, will have long term consequences, and may in the near future lay the groundwork for the fall of its own regime, like it did to Bashar Al-Assad's regime."[3]
[1] "Caliph" refers to the Islamic leader of the Muslim nation; in Arabic, it means "replacement" or "successor" – i.e. for the Prophet Muhammad. As will be recalled, Erdogan heads the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated Justice and Development Party.
[2] The Astana summit was a process of talks overseeing the ceasefire in Syria. It took place beginning in 2017 with a series of regular meetings between Russia, Turkey, and Iran as a guarantor, following the Syrian Civil War that had begun in 2011.
[3] Kayhan (Iran), December 16, 2024.

Unmasking The Religious Dimensions Of Hizbullah’s Decades Of Planning For An October 7-Style Invasion And Massacre Of Jews
ستيفن ستالينسكي من موقع ميمري: دراسة مطولة تكشف الأبعاد الدينية لتخطيط حزب الله على مدى عقود لغزو ومجزرة على غرار هجوم 7 أكتوبر ضد اليهود
MEMRI/December 20, 2024
By Steven Stalinsky, Ph.D.*
Lebanon | Inquiry & Analysis Series No. 1798
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/12/138187/

Introduction
Since the 2006 Israel-Hizbullah war, Hizbullah has been speaking openly, in Arabic and in explicit detail, of its plan to carry out a future massacre in Israel. Hizbullah’s plan, two decades in the making, was to begin by invading the Galilee using missiles, rockets, and drones, along with advanced technology, intelligence, and surveillance, and with a tunnel network far more extensive than Hamas’s. Yet Hamas’s October 7 attack turned out to have preempted what Hizbullah had been planning – plans that were confirmed by documentation found by Israeli forces in their counteroffensive in southern Lebanon.
Hizbullah, once recognized as the most heavily armed nonstate actor in the world, released, on October 8, 2024, a detailed infographic with statistics of the 3,194 operations it claims to have carried out against Israel since October 8, 2023, breaking them down into attacks on border outposts, communities, military positions, planes and drones, military camps and bases, military airports, and concentrations of forces. For these, it said, it had used guided and ballistic missiles, surface-to-surface missiles, artillery, and sniper rifles, along with aerial defense systems, an “air force,” and other weapons. It claimed that with all this, it had killed and wounded over 2,000 Israelis and caused the evacuation of over 100 communities, displacing 300,000 people.
Reiterating its intentions to attack Israel, Hizbullah’s open plans included by firing missiles at and storming the Galilee, Golan, the Hula Valley, Tel Aviv, and all of “pre-1948 Palestine.” It has particularly emphasized Israeli army outposts and bases, and air force bases from Kiryat Shmona to Palmachim Airbase in Israel’s west central region, Ben Gurion Airport, and the Ilan and Asaf Ramon International Airports in the south. Other targets it has named include petrochemical plants, biological research institutes, the Dimona and other “nuclear facilities,” nuclear waste disposal sites, and storage facilities for nuclear warheads “located either within cities or in their vicinity.” It even singled out ammonia storage facilities in Haifa – which when struck, it said, would incur as many casualties as a nuclear bomb – or five. This is an echo of the August 4, 2020 explosion of ammonium nitrate in Beirut port, a blast that killed and wounded more than 7,000 Lebanese and caused $15 billion in damage. Many Lebanese still blame Hizbullah for the explosion.
Even after Israel’s blows against it over the past months – the detonation of Hizbullah pagers and other communication devices, the killing of its leadership, including Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, and the targeting of weapons stockpiles and banks, Hizbullah continues to warn of its upcoming invasion, using unknown and advanced weapons and other surprises. On October 14-16, in a series of articles on its affiliated news website Al-Khanadiq, Hizbullah said its chain of command had been “rehabilitated,” and went on to claim that it has retained 80 percent of its military capabilities; that it continues to receive supplies from Iran; that it has tens of thousands of missiles, including precision, hypersonic, and anti-ship missiles; that it can strike any target in Israel; and that it is preparing for a long war of attrition against Israel.
This report includes extensive translations from MEMRI’s vast archives – the largest in the world of translations of Hizbullah.
Hizbullah’s Plans To Annihilate The Jews Have Religious Overtones
Hizbullah’s statements about its planned massacre have religious overtones. Annihilating Israel and the Jews is a “religious obligation” for the group, citing Jewish scripture and referencing sites of Jewish historical and spiritual significance. The Galilee, first on Hizbullah’s checklist of targets and closest to its strongholds, holds locations of religious significance to both Christians and Jews. The group has fired numerous barrages of dozens, if not hundreds, of rockets into the ancient city of Safed and into Tiberias.
On October 13, 2024, Hizbullah released a short video clip depicting its fighters entering Israel through a large steel gate – symbolizing the gate to the fortress of Al-Qamus that was uprooted by Ali ibn Abi Talib in the 628 CE Battle of Khaybar – and firing weapons and traveling by motorcycle, jeep, and ATV, just as Hamas did on October 7, 2023, to slaughter Jews.
In its communications, Hizbullah often refers to the seventh-century slaughter of the Jews in the Arabian Peninsula by the army of Islam’s Prophet Muhammad, during the seventh-century Battle of Khaybar. In fact, Hizbullah considers all its current strikes against Israel to be part of its “Operation Khaybar” in revenge for the killing of Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. An October 1 post by the Hizbullah Al-Electroni account featured a 25-second video warning, in Hebrew and English: “The Khyber [i.e. Khaybar] Gate will be uprooted twice, and the field will testify that we are the people of decisiveness.”
A video released in February 2023, further highlighting Hizbullah’s framing of its current battle against Israel in religious terms, showed the elite Radwan Force simulating an invasion of northern Israel. The narrator quoted the Old Testament in Hebrew: “If there is a serious injury, you are to take life for life, eye for eye, tooth for tooth, hand for hand, foot for foot, burn for burn, wound for wound, bruise for bruise. Exodus, 21:24-25.” The video concluded with a verse from the Book of Jeremiah: “From the north, disaster will be poured out on all who live in the land [Israel]. Jeremiah 1:14.”
This theme, and this verse from Jeremiah, also appeared in an October 2020 video on Hizbullah’s media outlet Al-Manar. In it, a Hizbullah official stressed that the next phase of the “resistance” would include two “blades” – Hizbullah missiles and legions of fighters who will storm the enemy’s barracks and settlements – in an operation named “The Gates Of Khaybar Will Be Smashed Again.”
It is notable that Hizbullah supporters in the West – in the U.S., U.K., Australia, and elsewhere – have revived the historic Muslim call to kill Jews in chants threatening local Jewish communities: “Khaybar, Khaybar, oh Jews, the army of Muhammad will return.” This occurred at a September 29 vigil for Nasrallah in Dearborn, Michigan, where it was heard; the crowd chanted “Death to Israel” for good measure.
Following the Israel-Hizbullah ceasefire agreement, and Hizbullah’s claim of victory over Israel, the terror organization and its allies led by Iran have openly stated that the current hiatus in the fighting is just an opportunity to regroup for the next round. Their words should not be ignored – in fact, they are justification for Israel, with the help of the U.S. and other allies, to squeeze Hizbullah and Iran further yet, so as to finally destroy the groups’ capabilities and any future desire to carry out their promised attacks on Israel.
Hizbullah’s Plan, Two Decades In The Making: To Invade The Galilee And Destroy Israel
Days after the September 17-18 detonation of Hizbullah operatives’ pagers and other communication devices across Lebanon, came Israel’s elimination of the top tier of Hizbullah’s leadership, including, on September 27, Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. He was killed deep in his bunker, as he and senior Hizbullah officials were reportedly finalizing their plans that would likely have gone into action for the Jewish New Year on October 2 or for the anniversary of October 7. In its Lebanon ground offensive, which began September 30, Israel has found in the tunnels – that North Korean experts are known to have helped construct – anti-helicopter missiles, anti-tank missiles, mortar shells, ammunition, weapons, and explosives, as well as motorcycles, for Hizbullah’s “Conquer the Galilee” operation.
Hizbullah believed that its invasion would bring about Israel’s destruction. In interviews, and in Arab media and social media posts, Hizbullah officials, including Nasrallah, his deputies, and senior commanders, detailed the organization’s goals and aims.
According to these statements, as noted, Hizbullah’s plan would begin with the Galilee. In 2019, Nasrallah explained: “Part of our plan, both theoretically and in practice… It is a plan for which we train, and prepare… We have prepared this plan. It is complete. Yes, part of our plan for the next war is to enter the Galilee.”
In August 2023, two months before October 7, Hizbullah operations officer “Hajj Jihad” underlined that the plan for the Galilee operation had been in the works for over 15 years. Calling it “one of the most important plans prepared by the Islamic resistance,” he added that when the war starts, “we will see Israeli soldiers deserting their posts, and fleeing.” He underlined that “the Islamic resistance that will wage this war” will not conduct it “like we have done it in the past” because “in the 17 years since 2006, we have been diligently preparing for this war.”
A Member of the Lebanese Parliament from Hizbullah, Elwalid Succariyeh, said in August 2019 that Hizbullah would, in a future conflict with Israel, invade the Galilee, the Hula valley, and all of pre-1948 Palestine: “After the July [2006] war, the concepts changed. The strategy of the resistance is no longer to exhaust the Zionist enemy and to delay its advancement into Lebanon’s territory. We are going to war. [Israel] will not invade – we will be the ones to invade. We need to go into the Galilee.”
In February 2023, marking the 15th anniversary of the assassination of Hizbullah military commander Imad Mughniyeh, Hizbullah commanders who were the focus of a report by the organization’s Al-Manar TV said that “Hajj ‘Imad [Mughniyeh] had and has a positive influence, and will continue to have such influence, inshallah, until the liberation of the Galilee and, indeed, all of Palestine.” They added that Hizbullah would “liberate” the Galilee “the next day” if Nasrallah gives the word, and warned Israeli “settlers” to “start leaving this area” because “soon enough they will encounter the resistance at their doorsteps.”
Less than 24 hours after Hamas launched its attack on October 7, 2023, on Israel’s south, Hizbullah Executive Council Head Hashem Safieddine – who was killed in early October 2024 shortly after being named as Nasrallah’s replacement – announced in a speech that what Israel had seen on that day would be seen again, but on a much larger scale, and from Lebanon and Israel’s other borders. The Hamas attack, he added, had proved Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assertion that “this plundering entity” – Israel – would be ended. As the crowd chanted “Death to America,” he added: “You will witness a deluge of the [Islamic] nation that will sink the entire [Zionist] entity.”
In speeches after October 7, 2023, Hizbullah officials set out the organization’s goal of mass slaughter. Explaining on December 28, 2023 on Iran’s Arabic-language Al-Alam TV, Safieddine stressed that Israel’s annihilation was the goal not only of the late IRGC Qods Force commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani, but also of all the resistance fighters in the region. Eliminating “this artificial and fabricated entity” is, he concluded, the “natural and logical goal of anybody who believes in history.” Hizbullah executive council deputy chairman Sheikh Ali Damoush, on August 12, touted Hizbullah’s plans for the “coming” attack. The “decision” to wreak vengeance, he said, “has been taken and there is no going back on it, regardless of the repercussions. Its implementation, details and timing are subject to the circumstances on the ground and the availability of opportunities.”
A Hizbullah-affiliated Lebanese academic, Sadek Al-Naboulsi, also detailed an upcoming plan on August 1, that Hizbullah’s elite Radwan Force would enter “occupied Palestine” and that “the Hizbullah flag will be raised on the mountains of the Galilee and on the dome of the Al-Aqsa Mosque.” He added: “Israel should start the countdown for its annihilation… Like secretary-general [Nasrallah] said, when this war breaks out, there will no longer be any ceilings or rules.” Earlier, on April 21, 2024, he hinted that Hizbullah had waited too long for a pre-October 7 element of surprise, but that it was still preparing to cross into the Galilee and awaited only the order from Nasrallah when the “time is right.” Liberating Palestine and annihilating Israel, he added, are fundamental components of Hizbullah’s culture.
Hizbullah artillery officer Hajj Muhammad Ali told Al-Manar TV on July 4, 2024 about the upcoming Galilee operation’s use of Burkan and Falaq rockets for its invasion. The Burkan rockets, he said, were designed to destroy Israeli forward outposts in the Galilee and would provide active fire support to forces in urban surroundings, while the Falaq rockets were for operations like the “fire belt” maneuvers carried out by the Israel Air Force. The resistance, he said, has been preparing for war with Israel for 17 years, and that only a small part of its weapons and capabilities have been revealed because of the Hizbullah leadership’s restrictions on escalation.
Hizbullah’s Extensive Tunnel Network, For Use In Its Planned Massacre – Developed Over A Decade
Like Hamas, Hizbullah has long been known to have an extensive network of massive tunnels, and like Hamas, it aims to use them in an attack on and invasion of Israel. It is no secret that Hizbullah shared its tunnel knowhow with Hamas, and trained Hamas in tunnel construction. Destroying these Hizbullah tunnels, many of them built under Lebanese towns, in southern Lebanon is now one of Israel’s major strategic goals.
Over a decade ago, in January 2014, Ibrahim Al-Amine, chairman of the board of the Hizbullah-affiliated Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar, reported on Hizbullah’s expansion of its tunnel efforts. He wrote that Hamas members fighting in Syria had dug tunnels there, similar to the ones excavated by Hamas in Gaza, and that Hamas had previously been trained in tunnel construction by Hizbullah. At that time, he noted, the two terror organizations were cooperating in smuggling arms into Gaza and preparing military operations against Israel.
A May 2016 report by the Hizbullah-affiliated Lebanese daily Al-Safir stated that Hizbullah could become a “regional power” that “formulates new equations in the region.” “Resistance fighters are operating day and night along the Israeli border,” it said, “conducting observations, preparing, and digging tunnels that cause the settlers and enemy soldiers to lose sleep.”
According to reports in the Lebanese press in January and February 2017 on Hizbullah activity in southern Lebanon, “Hizbullah has concealed forward positions on the international [Lebanon-Israel] border, including tunnels it dug over 10 years ago.”
In the run-up to October 7, in July 2023, Hizbullah released a video showing its fighters in a tunnel reviewing an attack plan and then emerging from them to simulate an infiltration of Israel and the capture of an Israeli military outpost. The fighters are armed with Russian-made 9k111 Fagot anti-tank missiles and a Russian ORSIS T-5000 sniper rifle.
Despite Hizbullah’s extensive use of tunnel networks against Israel going back to the 1980s, terror tunnels are not just a problem for Israel. Like other innovations by Palestinian jihadi groups – making jihadism cool with airplane hijackings in the 1970s and suicide bombings in the 1990s and onward – Hizbullah’s and Hamas’s use of tunnels, especially Hamas’s for its October 7, 2023 attacks and massacres, will inspire terrorist groups and criminal elements for generations to come.
Hizbullah Discloses Its Military Planning, Including What It Is Targeting And Why – For An October 7-Style Massacre
For years, Hizbullah’s leadership and media have been provided glimpses of its military goals beyond invading Israel via the Galilee, including using tunnels. Nasrallah spoke in March 2016 of “all-out war that will know no boundaries or red lines.” He said: “We have a whole list of targets… plants, installations, storage facilities, and centers, along with their locations and their precise coordinates,” including “many petrochemical plants, biological research institutes, centers, and plants, nuclear plants – not just one – installations for the disposal of nuclear waste, and storage facilities for nuclear warheads.” These, he stressed, are “located either within [Israeli] cities or in their vicinity… for example, an installation 10-15 kilometers from Ashdod, or one 20-25 kilometers from Tel Aviv. In some cases, they are right next to cities, only one or two kilometers away.”
Nasrallah had already threatened strikes on ammonia storage facilities in Haifa. A month previously, in February 2016, he had said that such a missile strike would have the impact of a nuclear bomb, which if successful could cause tens of thousands of deaths. A year later, in February 2017, he claimed that Israel had decided to move the storage facilities away from Haifa – but that Hizbullah would still be able to reach the ammonia facility, as well as the Dimona nuclear plant. While a strike on the ammonia storage tanks would equal a nuclear attack, he said, an attack on a ship supplying ammonia to Israel would be like five nuclear bombs.
Several pro-Hizbullah Telegram channels shared video footage of a May 2023 Hizbullah military drill in southern Lebanon that simulated an attack on Israeli military bases and vehicles. In it, Hizbullah fighters used infantry tactics, explosives, motorcycles, ATVs, and small drones, and also demonstrated their martial arts skills.
Nasrallah warned that Hizbullah’s rockets and UAVs could reach anywhere in Israel in a June 19, 2024 interview adding, “They should expect us in land, air, and sea… They know that no place in the [Israeli] entity will be safe from our rockets and UAVs.” He explained: “Our Hudhud [reconnaissance] drone proves this… It’s not just a question of quantity, of how many buildings will collapse. A thousand buildings can collapse, and the [Israeli] entity will remain standing, but a smaller number of buildings could be brought down, and the [Israeli] entity will collapse, because it has certain foundations. In any case, they know what I am talking about.” He added that the Israelis “also know that what awaits them in the Mediterranean Sea is very significant.”
An even more disturbing aspect of Hizbullah’s plans was published July 25, 2024, in the Kuwaiti Al-Jarida daily. Citing a “high-ranking source” in Iran’s IRGC Qods Force, the daily reported that the IRGC had given Hizbullah bombs and rockets with electromagnetic warheads, some of which could be sent via drone to “any position deep inside Israel.” These would disable Israel’s communications and power infrastructure, impacting its radar, air force, and ground forces, said the source. Another weapon in Hizbullah’s hands, provided by Iran, he said, were “smart fragmentation missiles” that detonate automatically when targeted by Israeli air defense systems, turning into dozens of rockets, along with radar-evading “ghost drones” also provided to the Houthis in Yemen and the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) in Iraq. Adding that the “resistance front” plans include not just stopping an Israeli invasion of Lebanon but “liberating” the Golan and Galilee, he said that these new weapons would eradicate Israel’s air superiority, leaving its troops to fight resistance operatives who have spent years preparing for battle.
Hizbullah: We Have Specific Targets – From The Knesset To Dimona’s Nuclear Facilities
Hizbullah has laid out its Israeli targets in detail and its successive drone attacks on Israeli military bases and attempted attack on the house of the Israeli prime minister show that it has serious capabilities. Ibrahim Al-Amine, of Al-Akhbar, reported in August 2022 on a Hizbullah “senior jihad commander” and member of its founding generation who had worked with all Hizbullah leaders since its establishment and is now a key figure in carrying out assessments and preparing for the next war with Israel. Quoting the senior official, Al-Amine wrote that that Israel’s infrastructure would be destroyed and Israelis “will be pulling bodies out from under the ruins” and that they would be unable to defend their territorial waters, their land border, their vital facilities or even their home front. Hizbullah, said the official, has all the weapons that Iran itself has, and some that it does not.
Al-Amine included in his report a map of potential targets in Israel, along with a list of Hizbullah’s missiles and their ranges. Again, quoting the official, he wrote that since 2006, Hizbullah had “reached the point where the resistance [Hizbullah] knows much more about the enemy than the enemy knows about the resistance,” and that”one day, we will tell them in advance what we will find on Golda’s Balcony [the observation platform at the Dimona nuclear facility].”
Furthermore, on July 27, 2024 Al-Amine wrote that Israel had miscalculated Hizbullah’s air force capabilities, and that Israel’s surprise would be even greater once it realized the scope of Hizbullah’s technology. Israel must prepare, he said, for the “special moment” when Hizbullah drones “occupy the airspace over the triangle of death” – i.e. from airbases near Kiryat Shmona in Israel’s northeast to the Palmachim Airbase in Israel’s west central region to the Ilan and Asaf Ramon International Airports in the south.
Nabil Qaouq, at the time deputy head of Hizbullah’s executive council who was killed by Israel in September, had spoken in January 2021 about IRGC Qods Force commander Soleimani’s realization of his “dream” that the “resistance movements” – led by Hizbullah – “would be capable of striking the Israeli Knesset with their missiles, striking the Israeli Ministry of War with their missiles, striking the military and strategic installations throughout the Israeli entity.” Hizbullah was now, he added, “capable of surrounding the [Israeli] entity with its long-range precision missiles,” which he called “the greatest element of deterrence against the Israeli enemy, as well as an existential threat for the Israeli entity.”
Nasrallah had warned in February 2010 that Hizbullah’s plans included bringing down buildings in Tel Aviv and striking Ben Gurion Airport, saying on Al-Manar TV: “I’d like to say to the Israelis today: Not only if you attack Al-Dahiya [the Beirut suburb where Hizbullah was based], we will attack Tel Aviv, but if you attack Beirut’s Rafiq Al-Hariri Airport, we will attack Ben-Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv. If you attack our ports, we will shell your ports. If you attack our oil refineries, we will shell your oil refineries. If you attack our factories, we will shell your factories. If you shell our electricity plants, we will shell your electricity plants.” In May 2012, he underlined that Hizbullah would target Israel’s transportation hubs, including its seaports and airports: “We are capable – if Allah wills it – of striking very specific targets in Tel Aviv and anywhere else in occupied Palestine. I say to you: The time has come when we will survive, and they will be annihilated.”
Israel’s October 2024 Invasion Of Southern Lebanon Confirms Hizbullah’s Vast Tunnel Network, Stockpiles Of Weapons, And Military Plans
The IDF recently disclosed some of what it has found in tunnels in southern Lebanon in October 2024 and into early November, since crossing into the country. Journalist Benjamin Weinthal toured the Hizbullah tunnels in late October and reported on what was found there, describing, under the Shi’ite village of Rab El Thalathine, which is less than 2.5 kilometers from the Israeli city of Kiryat Shmona, ten shafts reaching from civilian homes in the village down into a kilometer of tunnels between 12 and 40 meters deep and two meters tall in places and that could store ammunition, rocket-propelled grenades, and AK-47 assault rifles and house more than 500 gunmen with enough food for weeks. The tunnels reportedly had many emergency exits and were built over the past 15 years.
An interview about the Hizbullah tunnels with one Israeli soldier according to Weinthal described them as more “stable and sophisticated” than the “Gaza metro.” Some reports also describe them as generally larger and more structurally sound than those of Hamas.
Under Kafr Kila, a Shia Muslim village in southern Lebanon that had served as a central hub for Hizbullah, the thousands of weapons, launchers, and tactical equipment belonging Hizbullah’s elite Radwan elite force were found, as well as an underground shaft that ran several hundred yards, nearly to the Lebanon-Israel border. Israeli officials have said that Hizbullah had planned to invade Israel from the village.
A November 2 report described how the IDF detonated 400 tons of explosives to destroy a Hizbullah tunnel system in a Lebanese village about a half-mile from the Israel-Lebanon border, opposite Kibbutz Misgav Am. At the peak of the fighting over the village, the tunnel system reportedly housed around 1,000 Hizbullah fighters, most from the Radwan Force, awaiting orders for a raid into Israel.
After Israel’s Invasion, Hizbullah Continues Threatening Future Attack, Uses Propaganda To Showcase Its Tunnels And Weapons Systems
Even after Israel’s invasion and the subsequent ceasefire arrangement, Hizbullah has continued daily to release propaganda about its military capabilities including its tunnels. For example, on November 3, 2024, it released a one-minute, 27-second video titled “We Will Not Abandon the Arena, Nor Lay Down Our Weapons,” a quote from a speech by slain Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The video showcases an underground Hizbullah facility known as Imad 5 – named after slain Hizbullah military commander Imad Mughniyeh, killed by Israel in 2008 – used for firing artillery. The video begins with armed Hizbullah operatives in full military gear entering the facility through an underground tunnel, passing by a sign displaying the name “Imad 5 facility.” Inside the spacious facility, the operatives gather in front of a large poster of Nasrallah, which features the caption “We swear to [avenge] your blood.”
The video is similar to another one from August 16, 2024, Telegram channels affiliated with Hizbullah published a clip titled “Imad 4,” which shows in detail an underground facility where trucks carry weapons and men ride motorcycles inside large illuminated tunnels.
Israel’s recent successes in Southern Lebanon notwithstanding, Hizbullah asserts that it remains strong and continues to threaten more attacks on Israel. On October 22, 2024, Lebanese Hizbullah’s Al-Ahed News website published an article summarizing a speech by the group’s propaganda chief, Muhammad ‘Afif, who was killed November 17, 2024, during a press conference in southern Beirut. ‘Afif stated that the group’s command and control system was working effectively and that the group has restored its military and logistic support lines, with enough “competent fighters, exceeding the needs of the front.” He alleged that Hizbullah has increased its “offensive and defensive operations” to an average of 25 per day, explaining that separate attacks on the same location are counted as one operation. ‘Afif claimed that Israel responds to Hizbullah attacks on Israeli military targets by killing civilians, vowing that the group would continue to strike the “Zionist north and interior” with heightened “qualitative and quantitative power.” He confirmed that Hizbullah was responsible for the October 19 drone attack targeting Netanyahu’s house in Caesarea, and pledged that the group would achieve “victory.”
A media outlet that supports Hizbullah published an infographic tallying statistics on the group’s recent attacks against Israe as of the end of October 2024. The outlet, Al-Khanadeq, released the infographic on its Telegram channel titled “Numbers that Recount the Achievements.” The infographic reported that Lebanese Hizbullah had conducted 48 operations targeting Israel on October 25, 2024 – what it called a “record which has been recorded for the first time since the start of the Al-Aqsa Flood Battle.” It also noted that on October 24, five Israeli soldiers were killed and dozens more wounded during an ambush “at point blank range” with Israeli forces in Ayta Al-Sha’ab, a village near the Israeli-Lebanese border.
Infographic stats of operations against Israel claimed by Hizbullah, including 48 on October 25, 2024 (Source: Al-Khanadeq media outlet)
Similarly on November 12, 2024, the Hizbullah Military Media Telegram channel provided a summary of what it described as recent developments in the “Battle of the Formidable Might” (Hizbullah’s name for its current war against Israel). In this report, Hizbullah claimed that to have struck dozens of strategic targets deep in Israeli territory, including by means of precision missiles that it used for the first time. Hizbullah stressed that it is prepared for a long war and possesses the necessary weapons to wage it. As part of the series of “Khaybar Operations”” it claimed as of that date, 70 operations had been carried out on 33 “strategic targets” deep in Israeli territory. Of these, 22 were said to have been perpetrated in collaboration with the Hizbullah “aerial forces,” during which 60 “high-quality drones” were launched with some reaching a distance of 145 kilometers inside Israeli territory. It also claimed that regarding its defensive planning, Hizbullah has taken all the steps necessary to wage a long-term campaign, and its forces possess all the necessary weapons and equipment.
Additionally, the following day, November 13, the Telegram channel of Hizbullah’s Warfare Media released a 30-second video titled “This Gathering Will Be Dispersed By Allah and The Men Of Allah,” allegedly tallying Israel’s losses in the war in southern Lebanon. It claimed that the IDF human losses amounted to over 100 dead, and over 1,000 wounded. It also claimed that 43 Merkava tanks, eight military bulldozers, two armored vehicles, two troop carriers, and one Humvee vehicle were disabled, and over six Hermes drones 450 and 900 reportedly downed.
Hizbullah still sees itself as it is described in a June 2022 report on Al-Manar TV, that focused on its military buildup, showcased its rocket arsenal, and stressed that in the 40 years since its founding, it had made Lebanon a “model of powerful resistance” and deterrence.” The narrator stated that “Every new day is an opportunity to increase [Hizbullah’s] power,” adding, “For 40 years, which equals 14,600 days, the resistance has strengthened its side of the equation, to the point that it has become stronger than ever before.”
On November 13, 2024, Hizbullah released an audio recording of a cryptic letter reportedly authored by organization’s new leader Naim Qassem to the group’s fighters: “You are the strength of confrontation with the arrogant and tyrants… You are the pride that shakes the foundations of Zionism… You are our hopeful future, Oh rocks of resilience and steadfast earth [..] All eyes turn toward your resistance, Oh men of Allah in the field [of battle], Oh men of Hizbullah, Oh elixir of noble life.”
Hizbullah Openly Boasts That It Is Now Regrouping For The Next Round, When It Will Finally Annihilate Israel
Although Hizbullah has been significantly degraded militarily by Israel, it is very likely to attempt to rebuild its weapons stockpiles, posing a long-term threat not only to Israel but to the U.S. and its other allies in the region. U.S. intelligence agencies say, according to sources briefed on the intelligence, that Hizbullah has been recruiting new fighters and attempting to rearm via both domestic production and via Syria – though Israel warned the Assad regime in Syria in late November that it will pay a “direct price” if it helps Hizbullah rearm.
Currently, according to the agencies, the organization has limited firepower; however, it still has thousands of short-range rockets in Lebanon, and will try to rebuild using weapons factories in neighboring countries that have transportation routes with Lebanon. According to one of the sources, although Hizbullah is set back, it is “designed to be disrupted.”
Once the ceasefire came into effect, Hizbullah and Iran both claimed victory, and continue to stress that it is an opportunity to regroup. On November 20, 2024, Ibrahim Al-Amine, of the Hizbullah-affiliated Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar, published an article stating that Hizbullah regards the current conflict as just another round in the war with Israel, which must ultimately be eliminated, and will rebuild its military capabilities in order to continue pursuing this goal.”
He continued: “But it is [also] our right and our duty to clearly say that Israel will remain an enemy that must be eliminated… True, we are divided on the basic issue, and therefore honesty compels us to say very calmly that the end of this round of fighting with the enemy does not mean the end of the resistance, and that rebuilding the might of the resistance, in terms of manpower, capabilities and resources, is the task today, and it will gain momentum in the future, and at any point in time.”
On November 27, 2024, after the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hizbullah in Lebanon went into effect, Hizbullah posted a statement on its social media accounts from ”the Islamic Resistance Operations Room.” In its statement, Hizbullah declared that it had vanquished the enemy, defeated its army, and was unwavering in two campaigns. Adding that during these two campaigns it had carried out thousands of operations against Israeli military and civilian targets, including those it described as ”strategic and sensitive,” it asserted that Israel’s ground maneuver in South Lebanon had failed, and that Hizbullah remains on high alert with ”finger on the trigger.”
Hizbullah published a propaganda video on its “Islamic Resistance Warfare Media” channel on Telegram on November 25, 2024 that depicted Hizbullah operatives wounded in the September 17 pager attacks as returning to fight in the war and participating in combat on the ground. The video, titled “Despite The Wounds, We Are On The Ground,” shows wounded Hizbullah fighters in hospital beds vowing to return to the frontline and “continue on the path” as soon as they recover. The background soundtrack features a segment from a speech by Nasrallah following the pager attacks, about a week before he himself was killed. He warned Israel that it would be confronted by hundreds of those wounded by the exploding devices “ready to resist and fight you” and “even more determined” to continue the war. The video then shows fighters with eye and hand injuries operating rocket launch systems; one says: “Despite the wounds inflicted on us, this resistance will remain the spearhead of the war against global arrogance and the defense of the oppressed worldwide.”
On November 29, 2024, Hizbullah’s new secretary general Naim Qassem declared in a televised speech that Hizbullah had achieved ”a great victory that surpassed even that which was attained in July 2006 [in the Second Lebanon War].” Acknowledging that the blows dealt by Israel had hurt Hizbullah and caused significant confusion in its ranks, he said that that had lasted about 10 days, but that the organization had reinstated its command-and-control system and retaken the initiative in the campaign. Hizbullah’s steadfastness, he argued, had clarified to Israel that it can gain nothing in this battle but more killing and destruction. Thus, he said, Hizbullah had proven that it is fully prepared and that the plans consolidated by its late leader Nasrallah were effective.
Qassem went on to say that the outcome of the “Battle of Formidable Might” – Hizbullah’s name for its campaign against Israel launched on September 17, 2024 – was ”a great victory that surpasses even that which was achieved in July 2006,” concluding: “We won, because we prevented the enemy from destroying Hizbullah. We won, because we prevented it from eliminating the resistance or weakening it… This is a victory of the resistance, because it persisted and it will continue to persist.” He added that Hizbullah would operate ”in coordination with the Lebanese Armed Forces and at a senior level.”
On December 11, 2024, the IRGC-affiliated Iran Military Capabilities Telegram channel wrote that “no system in the world can defeat Hizbullah… The men of Allah in Lebanon still have options that the enemy might call ‘crazy.’ It added: “Hizbullah is winning. The resistance will include the entire region, and the decisive [victory] is yet to come. The nation is now being tested.” A subsequent post stated that according to a “high-ranking military source,” “if the armed groups in Syria express goodwill and willingness to cooperate against the oppressive Jews, Iran will leave the past behind and will launch a new phase in the battle against the [Islamic] nation’s number one enemy… This call will remain in effect, particularly because they have a religious obligation to liberate Syria’s lands that have been plundered in the past and recently.”
Underlining its insistence that Hizbullah had won the war, the Hizbullah-affiliated Al-Ghaliboon Telegram channel shared, on December 12, a video about damage in the north of Israel created from segments of an Israeli news story about residents returning to their homes and discussing rebuilding there. The Arabic narration stated: “The [Israeli] north and its shattering – the condition of the north after the ceasefire, the destruction that struck the heart of the settlements.”
Additionally, on December 19, Lebanese MP Ibrahim Mousawi of the Hizbullah-affiliated Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc said, at a commemoration of a “martyred” fighter, that the organization would continue its approach “as long as there are generations raised on resistance, loyalty, and allegiance.” He added: “We are in a position of power and strength. We have been and will remain so.”
Hizbullah Claims Victory – Despite Being Decimated
Israel has eliminated nearly the entire Hizbullah leadership:
Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.
Fuad Shukr, Hizbullah’s top military official, jihad council member, and Nasrallah’s right-hand man. The U.S. was offering $5 million for information about him and his whereabouts.
Ibrahim Aqil, founder and commander of Hizbullah’s elite Radwan Force, assassinated along with 16 other commanders. The U.S. was offering up to $7 million for information about him and his whereabouts.
Ahmad Wehbe, Radwan senior commander, killed along with Aqil.
Mohammad Surour, Hizbullah drone unit head in charge of the organization’s drone and cruise missile attacks on Israel.
Nabil Qaouk, Hizbullah Preventive Security Unit commander and a member of Hizbullah’s central council, and a U.S.-designated global terrorist.
Hashem Safieddine, head of Hizbullah’s executive council, and Nasrallah’s likely heir before he was killed.
Additionally:
Nine were killed and 2,800 wounded across Lebanon in the explosions of hundreds of pagers used by Hizbullah members, in the attack attributed to Israel.
As of October 7, 2024, Israel had killed over 800 terror operatives, most of them Hizbullah. This includes 90 Hizbullah commanders.
As of October 7, 2024, Israel had struck 11,000 Hizbullah positions.
As of October 1, Israel had destroyed half of Hizbullah’s entire arsenal.
Israel continues to strike Hizbullah forces that were violating the ceasefire.
Radwan force members killed in September 20, 2024 strike in Beirut. Source: IDF
Conclusion: What’s Next?
Now, three weeks into the three-month Israel-Hizbullah ceasefire, Hizbullah continues to say it has won the war with Israel, on the war, and it is reported that it is attempting to regroup. Yet Hizbullah secretary-general Naim Qassem acknowledged, in mid-December, that Israel had destroyed the organization’s supply route via Syria. The key to keeping Hizbullah in a weakened state goes through the bank account of Iran. After the last Israel-Hizbullah war, in 2006, Iran provided significant funding to help Hizbullah rebuild and maintain its support among Lebanon’s Shi’ite community. According to an individual close to Hezbollah and familiar with the group’s thinking, “Iran is prepared to allocate funds” to do this again – and Hizbullah expects Iran to send advisors to oversee funding and retrain its military ranks. But after decades of U.S. and international sanctions, and its own problems at home, Iran has fewer resources to rehabilitate Lebanon. It would behoove the U.S. to take advantage of the current situation, and to keep bleeding Iran financially so that it cannot rebuild and rearm Hezbollah. Without funds, it will have no weapons, either for itself or for its proxies – the “resistance axis” – in the region. As the new Trump administration is set to take office, there is new momentum and there are new options for Israel and the U.S. to destroy or severely damage the axis of resistance.
*Steven Stalinsky is Executive Director of the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI).
https://www.memri.org/reports/unmasking-religious-dimensions-hizbullahs-decades-planning-october-7-style-invasion-and

Unmasking The Religious Dimensions Of Hizbullah’s Decades Of Planning For An October 7-Style Invasion And Massacre Of Jews
ستيفن ستالينسكي من موقع ميمري: دراسة مطولة تكشف الأبعاد الدينية لتخطيط حزب الله على مدى عقود لغزو ومجزرة على غرار هجوم 7 أكتوبر ضد اليهود
MEMRI/December 20, 2024
By Steven Stalinsky, Ph.D.*
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/12/138187/
Lebanon | Inquiry & Analysis Series No. 1798


Somehow, Gaza’s suffering increased in 2024

Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/December 20/2024
It is inconceivable that, as this year comes to an end and planet Earth completes another full circle around the sun, the war in Gaza is still raging with devastating impact after descending into a multifront war for Israel.
When 2023 drew to a close, few would have imagined that, on the cusp of 2025, a ceasefire in Gaza would still not have been reached, many innocent people would still be being killed every single day, Gaza would be in ruins, many of its people would be displaced several times over and suffering from starvation and a lack of medical care, while the hostages would still be languishing in Hamas’ hands. It is equally mind-boggling that, despite playing a crucial role in this disastrous state of affairs, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still managing to hold on to the most powerful office in the country.
Israel could not have had a worse leadership to guide it through what has become its most harrowing period since 1948, nor could it be caught in worse political-social circumstances to face the challenges that have emerged from Hamas’ horrendous attack. At the end of the day, the fear that such life-and-death decisions might be handed to a prime minister who was also a defendant in a most disturbing corruption trial proved to be justified by the nightmarish circumstances and consequences that have come to pass.
There were very few who questioned Israel’s right to militarily respond to Hamas’ attack of Oct. 7, 2023, and go after its leaders and military capabilities, but that outrageous spree was no license to go after the civilian population and collectively punish them for deeds they had not committed, nor to treat them as mere collateral damage in the war with Hamas.
The Israeli government and its security forces have taken the view that almost everything in this war is permissible.
Much of the way this war has been conducted was dictated by the initial failure to avert the Hamas attack. Since then, between the trauma and the will to avenge the victims of that attack, the Israeli government and its security forces have taken the view that almost everything in this war is permissible. None more so than Netanyahu, who is motivated by revenge and the prospect of redemption that would help him remain in power; and thus far he has managed to achieve what seemed impossible only a short time ago.
After all, it was he who masterminded the idea that funneling hundreds of millions of dollars to Hamas would both pacify this extremist movement and preserve the rift between it and Fatah — and, by such a divide-and-rule tactic, prevent a Palestinian state from ever materializing. He could not have been more mistaken. Netanyahu misread Hamas’ intentions, weakened Israeli society and its resilience through his assault on the democratic foundations of the country and, whatever the faults of others in Israel’s security forces, it was on his watch that the defense of the communities along the border with Gaza collapsed within hours, leading to the biggest loss of Jewish lives in one day since 1945. This, on its own, should have led any leader with even just a minimal sense of integrity or decency to accept full responsibility and leave politics for good.
But this is not in Netanyahu’s DNA and his many and various denials of responsibility have become even more emphatic since he was investigated and subsequently indicted on three counts of corruption. His trial has been deliberated by the court for more than four and a half years, yet only this month did Netanyahu begin giving his evidence, which, by all accounts, has brought the entire country into disrepute.
Throughout 2024, it became increasingly evident that the aims set by Netanyahu at the beginning of the war — of eliminating Hamas and ensuring the return of the hostages — were not and could not be compatible. Moreover, to see Hamas only through a military prism and to ignore it as a political and ideological movement has been another conceptual failure. Additionally, his claim that only military pressure would bring the hostages home proved to be another of Netanyahu’s empty promises, aimed mainly at appeasing his base and his right-wing coalition partners.
The vast majority of the hostages released so far owe their freedom to a negotiated deal, while those killed outnumber by far those released through military operations. Meanwhile, about 100 still languish in captivity. From all the evidence available to us, including, and perhaps especially, the repulsive incitements by Netanyahu’s toxic machinery against the hostages’ families, it is clear that the government has given up on those in captivity in Gaza and would prefer to see them die rather than release more Palestinian prisoners or agree to a ceasefire.
What motivates Netanyahu is his desperate quest to stay in power and, consequently, he almost totally relies on the support of the far-right parties of Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism. If, in his earlier years in politics, his populism, divisiveness and fear-mongering propelled him to power, today the more he becomes entangled in his legal affairs, the more he and those around him are becoming increasingly venomous in their attacks on the judiciary, the various gatekeepers of democracy and anyone else who opposes them, while their behavior knows no boundaries.
Leaders of the settler movement are already circling over potential locations in Gaza to build settlements.
Netanyahu knows that, in the Israeli and Jewish ethos, releasing hostages should be the highest priority, as most of the nation demands. Nevertheless, because of his dependence on a small group of right-wing religious-messianic zealots, whose dream is to annex the West Bank and now even the Gaza Strip, while making life a living hell for Palestinians in the Occupied Territories in an attempt to force them to either submit to the settlers’ wishes will or leave, the prime minister will not allow a ceasefire deal to be concluded. To this end, he was even prepared to sacrifice his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, in the middle of a war. Gallant was almost the only Cabinet member with substantial military experience and, despite his extremely hawkish views, he had the common sense and honesty to question the aims of the war, to call for a ceasefire deal that would also see the return of the hostages and to establish a state inquest into the disastrous failures of Oct. 7. In addition, he demanded that ultra-Orthodox youth be drafted into the army to ease the burden on those reservists who serve for months on end. These were all very sensible demands, but not in Bibi’s world, where they threaten his government’s stability.
Instead, it is becoming increasingly evident that the Israeli military is planning to stay in Gaza for at least the next few years, which is a strategic folly likely to be deadly for both sides. Leaders of the settler movement are already circling over potential locations in Gaza to build settlements and the even more lunatic among them were promoting the idea of settling areas of south Lebanon before last month’s ceasefire deal, which called for the army’s withdrawal to the Israeli side of the border. In its war on Hezbollah, Israel’s security forces have scored considerable military successes, from the mass explosions of pagers to eliminating most of the militia’s leadership. However, despite these tactical achievements, there is a lack of any strategy to reach a lasting political settlement. From Day 1 of the war, Netanyahu’s calculus has lacked a long-term strategic rationale. This is not by accident, but because the end of the war would likely terminate his political career and, in doing so, scupper his attempts to further derail his corruption trial. Matters have reached a point where one doubts whether he is capable of distinguishing between what serves him personally and what is in the national interest. Furthermore, following his recent indictment by the International Criminal Court for war crimes, there is a genuine danger that he will dig his heels in even further, which makes the situation even more dangerous.
*Yossi Mekelberg is a professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. X: @YMekelberg

Taliban infighting adds to Afghanistan’s woes
Luke Coffey/Arab News/December 20/2024
The Taliban’s de facto minister of refugees and repatriation, Khalil Ur-Rahman Haqqani, was killed along with five others in a bomb explosion in Kabul last week. This marked the first time since the Taliban retook Afghanistan in 2021 that a senior member of the group had been assassinated.
Haqqani’s assassination is significant not only because of his role in the Taliban, but also due to his family connections. He was the uncle of Sirajuddin Haqqani, the current de facto interior minister and senior leader of the Haqqani Network. During the early days after the Taliban recaptured Kabul in August 2021, Khalil Haqqani was responsible for the city’s security, making him a difficult target. His nephew oversees Afghanistan’s internal security, adding another layer of complexity to targeting the Haqqani family in Kabul.
While Daesh immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, the situation may not be so straightforward. In the past, Daesh has been known to claim responsibility for attacks it had no part in to boost its image. A more plausible explanation is that this was an inside job, reflecting the fractured nature of the Taliban. From the outside, the Taliban might appear monolithic, but today’s group is not the same one that first took power during Afghanistan's civil war in the 1990s. After being ousted by international forces in 2001, the Taliban splintered over the next 20 years into competing factions. Now, there is a patchwork of groups vying for influence. The two prominent wings are the Haqqani faction, led by Sirajuddin Haqqani, and the Kandahari faction, led by Hibatullah Akhundzada. However, other factions also play significant roles, including the Baradar and Yaqoob wings of the Kandahari faction and non-Pashtun Taliban groups operating in northern Afghanistan.
The most likely faction behind Khalil Haqqani’s assassination is the Kandahari faction. Tensions between Sirajuddin Haqqani and Akhundzada have been mounting, with both vying for greater influence. Sirajuddin Haqqani recently criticized Akhundzada during a madrasa graduation ceremony in Paghman, near Kabul. This public slight is thought to have triggered the assassination of Sirajuddin’s uncle. Such acts underscore the fragile and increasingly volatile dynamics within the Taliban’s leadership structure.
Tensions between Sirajuddin Haqqani and Akhundzada have been mounting, with both vying for greater influence.
These internal divisions make forming an effective Taliban government almost impossible. The assassination of a senior leader by another faction exacerbates an already precarious situation in Afghanistan. Each faction seeks to consolidate power, further destabilizing the country.
Beyond Taliban infighting, millions of Afghans struggle daily to survive. According to a report by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, “more than half of Afghanistan’s population will require humanitarian assistance” this year. The report describes a dire situation, with widespread displacement, landmine contamination, restricted movement, gender-based violence, child labor, early marriage and increasing mental health needs. Minority ethnic groups such as Uzbeks, Tajiks and Hazaras face severe persecution and women’s rights have eroded to near nonexistence. Aside from limited roles in education and healthcare, women are effectively barred from the workforce and girls are denied education beyond the sixth grade. Under such conditions, the future of millions of Afghans is bleak.
While girls are being deprived of education, young boys are being radicalized in Taliban-run schools. Recently, a Taliban official from the Ministry of Education announced a new exam titled “Ideological War Against the West,” to be administered in schools and madrasas. This reflects the Taliban’s broader effort to indoctrinate a new generation of extremists, particularly against Western countries. Such actions not only rob Afghan children of a future, but they also lay the groundwork for continued cycles of violence and extremism.
Meanwhile, the Taliban have done little to stem the growth of terrorist organizations in Afghanistan since their return to power in 2021. Groups such as Al-Qaeda and Daesh have only grown stronger amid the chaos. Daesh, in particular, has expanded its recruitment and conducted high-profile attacks, often targeting the Hazara community. A UN report this summer estimated that Daesh had between 4,000 and 6,000 fighters, despite leadership losses. The group has exploited the Taliban’s internal divisions and lack of governance, positioning itself as an alternative power center in Afghanistan.
The Taliban have done little to stem the growth of terrorist organizations in Afghanistan since their return to power. Al-Qaeda has similarly benefited from the Taliban’s return. The group maintains a close relationship with the Taliban, with cells operating across multiple provinces, primarily in the southeast. Al-Qaeda has also established new training camps, attracting fighters from across the region. In 2022, a US drone strike in Kabul killed Al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri, underscoring the group’s reemergence in Afghanistan. The Taliban’s inability or unwillingness to rein in such groups raises significant concerns for regional and global security.
Despite these alarming developments, the international community remains largely indifferent. Millions of Afghans continue to suffer through a humanitarian crisis and terrorist organizations flourish unchecked. The lack of international engagement leaves Afghanistan’s future in the hands of factions more focused on power struggles than governance.
Khalil Haqqani’s assassination could further escalate tensions between the Haqqani and Kandahari factions, potentially leading to open conflict or even an internal civil war if retaliation occurs. Such a scenario would provide groups like Al-Qaeda and Daesh with an opportunity to exploit the ensuing chaos and strengthen their foothold in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, ordinary Afghans will continue to bear the brunt of violence, poverty and international neglect.
As 2024 comes to a close, the outlook for Afghanistan remains grim. Unless the international community takes meaningful action, the country’s downward spiral will only accelerate, with devastating consequences for its people and global security.
**Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. X: @LukeDCoffey

Regional support crucial for Turkiye’s new Syria policy

Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/December 20/2024
Syria remains highly fragile, facing several challenges and risks. This makes it essential for Turkiye to secure broad regional support for its evolving strategy in the country, which has gone through various phases of instability and seen many power struggles involving several actors. Syria has served as a critical litmus test for relations among regional states, as it has significantly impacted their security perceptions. Throughout the crisis, regional states have pursued divergent policies in Syria, leading to tensions and, at times, clashing with Turkiye’s approach. This fragmentation among regional states added further complexity in Syria and played into the hands of the Assad regime and its allies. However, the shifting dynamics in Syria are beginning to alter the regional balance, opening the door for greater collaboration among regional actors to shape a new Syria. A new regional order is emerging with the collapse of the Assad regime. The region is undergoing its own version of the fall of the Iron Curtain. Just as the overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003 reshaped power dynamics in Iraq and the broader Middle East, the fall of Bashar Assad will lead to new configurations both within Damascus and across the region. Syria is passing through a challenging phase, which is essential for the emergence of a new state. While a new Syria is to be born, it is crucial for its regional allies to actively support the rebuilding of the state and the establishment of a stable, unified future.
Why is it important for Turkiye to have regional support? Since the onset of the Syrian crisis, while Ankara sought to exert influence, the situation in the country has, in turn, shaped Turkish foreign policy through different phases. Thus, it resulted in a two-way impact — Turkiye’s policies influencing the region, while developments in Syria have, at various points, recalibrated Turkish priorities and impacted Ankara’s relations with regional states. The fall of Bashar Assad will lead to new configurations both within Damascus and across the region. Turkiye shares the longest land border with Syria, stretching more than 900 km. Despite the considerable security, political and economic challenges that this proximity brings, Turkiye remained committed to supporting the opposition and maintaining an open-door policy for Syrian refugees. For Turkiye, Syria is not solely a foreign policy issue as it might be for other countries in the region; it has significant domestic implications as well.
Turkiye, with its significant political and security influence in Syria, aims to strengthen its position by securing broader regional support — especially crucial in a region where cultivating alliances is more beneficial than having adversaries. The Syria of today is different from the one of 13 years ago. The situation in Syria has become increasingly complex and the country remains vulnerable to further instability. At this critical moment, Turkiye needs the support of its regional allies to assist Syrians in building a stable, unified nation within the region.
In Syria, the new leadership will need to rely on Turkiye and other regional allies to establish public order, build institutions and secure the necessary resources. Building a stable Syria would not only be a huge win for its people, but also for Turkiye and the wider region.
Given this, Turkiye has engaged in intense diplomatic efforts since the fall of Assad. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan this week met with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani and Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati to discuss Syria. He also traveled to Cairo to attend Thursday’s D-8 Summit, where he held direct talks on Syria with his Egyptian counterpart.
The situation in Syria has become increasingly complex and the country remains vulnerable to further instability.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also attended the meeting in Cairo. Before his fall, Assad’s continued hold on power had, in some ways, brought Turkiye and Iran closer together. However, the change of leadership in Syria is likely to shift the balance of relations. Ankara now has the upper hand vis-a-vis Tehran. Moreover, it now has interests aligning more closely with Arab states in the broader region. Iran must carefully assess this shifting dynamic and adapt its policy toward both Turkiye and Syria accordingly. It can either become part of the broader regional support for Syria’s reconstruction or risk being excluded from this emerging order.
A political transition in Syria will require a new set of actors at the table, primarily Syria’s neighbors and the Gulf states. In this context, Turkiye’s role is crucial in aligning closely with regional states and strengthening its ties with the Syrian opposition.
This approach is important, given the lessons of the past. History has shown that efforts to dominate the region have often led to tensions. Rather than making Syria a point of contention, it could become a strong point of collaboration. If Turkiye, along with its regional allies, can contribute to building a stable Syria — though within certain limits — they will all not only enhance their influence in the region but also achieve significant gains.
*Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz

Addressing AI’s bias from a humanistic perspective
Patrizia A. Ecker/Arab News/December 20/2024
Artificial intelligence has transformed how we live, work and interact, promising efficiency, precision, and even objectivity. Yet, beneath the shiny veneer of algorithms lies a pressing issue that remains insufficiently addressed — bias.
Far from being impartial, AI often reflects the same prejudices and inequalities embedded in the societies that create it. Bias in AI is not just a technical glitch; it is a social and ethical challenge that demands our attention. AI systems are only as unbiased as the data they are trained on and the people who design them. Training data often mirrors historical inequalities, stereotypes, or underrepresented groups, leading to biased outcomes. For example, a widely cited 2018 MIT study found that facial recognition algorithms had an error rate of 34.7 percent for darker-skinned women compared to just 0.8 percent for lighter-skinned men.
This disparity is not just an abstract technical issue — it manifests as a real-world disadvantage for those who are already marginalized.
Bias in AI also stems from the lack of diversity in its creators. With technology sectors still largely homogenous, the perspectives shaping algorithms often miss critical nuances. As someone with experience in digital transformation projects, I have observed these biases firsthand. For instance, in one project involving AI-powered customer care agents, the system struggled to interpret diverse accents and cultural nuances, leading to a subpar experience for non-native speakers.
The impact of AI bias extends beyond theoretical concerns, influencing decisions in critical areas such as hiring, healthcare, law enforcement, and digital marketing.
In hiring, Amazon’s algorithm famously demonstrated bias against women because it was trained on male-dominated data. This perpetuated existing inequalities in a field that already struggles with gender diversity. Similarly, in healthcare during the COVID-19 pandemic, pulse oximeters were found to be less accurate on individuals with darker skin tones, highlighting how biased technology can exacerbate health disparities. In digital campaigns, in a discussion about targeted marketing, such as those used by fashion brands including Mango, concerns arose about AI reinforcing stereotypes. For example, the reinforcement of narrow definitions of beauty.
These examples underscore the human consequences of biased AI systems.
Bias in AI is not just about better coding; it is about understanding the broader societal context in which technology operates.
Some argue that AI bias is inevitable because it mirrors the flaws of human data. While refining datasets and improving algorithms are essential, this perspective oversimplifies the issue. Bias in AI is not just about better coding; it is about understanding the broader societal context in which technology operates.
Others propose that AI can also serve as a tool to highlight and address biases. For example, AI can analyze hiring trends and suggest equitable practices or identify disparities in healthcare outcomes. This dual role of AI — as both a challenge and a solution — offers a nuanced perspective.
Tackling bias in AI requires a comprehensive approach.
An essential requirement is diverse development teams to ensure that AI systems are built by groups with varied perspectives and experiences. This is vital to uncovering blind spots in algorithm design.
In addition, there should be transparency and accountability so algorithms are interpretable and subject to scrutiny, and allow users to understand and challenge decisions.There should also be ethical considerations integrated into every stage of AI development. This includes frameworks for bias detection, ethical audits, and public-private collaborations to establish guidelines.
A further requirement is for education and media literacy, to equip individuals and organizations with the tools to recognize AI’s limitations and question its outputs. Critical thinking and media literacy are crucial for fostering a society that demands fairness from technology.
AI is neither a villain nor a savior — it is a reflection of humanity. Bias in AI challenges us to confront uncomfortable truths about inequality and injustice in our societies. While the journey toward unbiased AI may be complex, it is one we cannot afford to ignore. As someone deeply involved in driving digital transformation and fostering human-centered skills, I have seen firsthand the potential of AI to either entrench inequality or unlock unprecedented opportunities. The choice lies in how we build, deploy, and use these systems.By addressing the roots of bias and fostering an inclusive approach to AI development, we can ensure that technology serves all of humanity — not just a privileged few.
• Patrizia A. Ecker is a digital transformation adviser, author, and researcher with a doctorate in psychology.

How the International Community Can Best Help the Palestinians

Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute./December 20, 2024
Had the international community held the Palestinian Authority (PA) accountable for financial and administrative corruption after the signing of the Oslo Accords 30 years ago, the Iran-backed Hamas terrorist group would not have gained popularity among Palestinians.
Although many Palestinians support Hamas's policy of rejecting Israel's right to exist, the Islamist group's victory greatly reflected the desire of the Palestinian public to end corruption in the PA government and institutions.
The most common forms of corruption seem to be the offenses of favoritism, nepotism, embezzlement of public funds, breach of trust, abuse of power, bribery and money laundering.
The best way to undermine Hamas and help the Palestinians is by offering the people a better alternative to the Islamist movement. The current Palestinian Authority leadership is just not seen by many Palestinians as a better alternative to Hamas. That is because the United States, European Union and other donors are not banging on the table and demanding an end to the PA's authoritarian and corrupt conduct.
Had the international community held the Palestinian Authority (PA) accountable for financial and administrative corruption after the signing of the Oslo Accords 30 years ago, the Iran-backed Hamas terrorist group would not have gained popularity among Palestinians. The current PA leadership is just not seen by many Palestinians as a better alternative to Hamas. That is because the US, EU and other donors are not banging on the table and demanding an end to the PA's authoritarian and corrupt conduct. Pictured: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with PA President Mahmoud Abbas in Amman, Jordan on October 13, 2023.
Had the international community held the Palestinian Authority (PA) accountable for financial and administrative corruption after the signing of the Oslo Accords 30 years ago, the Iran-backed Hamas terrorist group would not have gained popularity among Palestinians. Hamas became so popular that its representatives won the last elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC), in 2006. The Hamas-affiliated Change and Reform list received 44.45% of the vote and won 74 of the 132 seats in the PLC.
Although many Palestinians support Hamas's policy of rejecting Israel's right to exist, the Islamist group's victory greatly reflected the desire of the Palestinian public to end corruption in the PA government and institutions.
Justin Curtis wrote in Harvard University's Exposé Magazine in 2016:
"On the campaign trail, Hamas effectively framed the election as a choice between itself and a corrupt, inefficient, and outdated regime [headed by Yasser Arafat]. The Islamist group made a concerted effort to come across as a progressive alternative to Fatah [the ruling faction headed by Arafat], even changing its name to the 'Change and Reform' party in advance of the election. Although Hamas's electoral platform referenced Islamic dogma, the party downplayed its more extremist, Islamist rhetoric. A significant portion of Hamas's 2006 platform was spent discussing 'public freedoms' and common-sense 'administrative reform,' hardly the talk of revolutionary radicals. Pledging a variety of anti-corruption initiatives, Hamas subtly rebuked Fatah's double-dealing and profiteering. In a similar vein, Hamas promised to 'stress transparency and accountability in dealing with public funds,' emphasizing that taxpayer money would go to economic development projects, not to fraudulent bureaucrats. Moreover, Hamas denounced the excessive authority of the federal government, advocating for 'political pluralism and the rotation of power.' Outlining reforms to the judiciary and legislative branches, Hamas sounded less like a terrorist cabal and more like reform-minded technocrats.....
"Exasperated by Fatah's corruption, Palestinians welcomed Hamas's clarion calls for accountability and good governance."
Hamas's rising popularity and its subsequent victory in the parliamentary elections did not surprise many Palestinians. Public opinion polls conducted before the elections showed that 87% of Palestinians believed that corruption exists in PA institutions. The polls, in addition, showed that a majority of Palestinians believed that Hamas was more able to fight corruption (46% for Hamas vs. 37% for Fatah).
The international community chose to turn a blind eye to the corruption of the Palestinian Authority under the leadership of Arafat. Many Western journalists covering Palestinian affairs also failed to report on the runaway corruption in PA institutions. Had the journalists reported on the issue, it is possible that taxpayers in the donor countries would have put pressure on their governments to hold the PA leadership accountable for depriving their people of the international aid. It would have been a move that might well have prevented Hamas from rising to power.
According to British-Palestinian journalist Diana Alghoul:
"The Oslo Accords meant Arafat sat on $4 billion in donations from the US, the European Union and Japan, as well as Israeli sales tax that was passed onto the Palestinian leader.
"While there are estimates that Arafat was worth an average of $3 billion, the real figure of his overall worth remains disputed. Following revelations surrounding the PA's largest corruption scandal, an internal PA audit showed a quarter of the governing's body for 1997 was 'lost' as a result of corruption and mismanagement.
"The bureaucratic nature of the PA meant that little oversight gave way for sharks to ultimately steal from Palestinian public money. After the 1997 audit was released, Arafat had demanded all future PA audits to be kept secret."
Arafat did not want the world to know about the corruption and mismanagement in PA institutions. Yet, it is hard to believe that the Western donors were not aware of the situation.
Some of the donor countries later woke up and realized they had made a mistake by failing to demand an end to corruption in the Palestinian Authority's institutions -- but it was too late. Hamas had already won the parliamentary election. A year later, in 2007, Hamas staged a violent and bloody coup in the Gaza Strip, toppling and expelling the PA, by then headed by Arafat's successor, Mahmoud Abbas. Many Palestinians did not shed a tear over the removal of Abbas's regime from Gaza: they were frustrated with the ongoing corruption of the PA leadership and institutions.
Instead of learning from their past mistakes, the donor countries continued to support the Palestinian Authority under Abbas, despite its failure to comply with demands for major political and economic reforms. True, there is not quite as much corruption in the PA today, but as far as many Palestinians are concerned, the measures Abbas's governments have taken are insufficient. Meanwhile, Hamas leaders have also shown that they are no less corrupt than Abbas and other PA officials. Many Hamas leaders moved to Qatar, where they have lived comfortable lives and reportedly became millionaires and billionaires.
A poll published in 2022 found that a majority of Palestinians believe that the sectors most susceptible to corruption are the Palestinian Authority government institutions, especially the executive and public sector institutions (ministries, security services, local authorities). The most common forms of corruption seem to be the offenses of favoritism, nepotism, embezzlement of public funds, breach of trust, abuse of power, bribery and money laundering. Twenty four percent of Palestinians considered favoritism and nepotism as the most common offense, followed by embezzlement of public funds (23%), breach of trust (13%), abuse of power (12%), bribery for delivering a public service (10%) and money laundering (8%).
The destruction of Hamas's military capabilities by Israel should be viewed as a positive development, but it is unlikely to decrease Hamas's popularity among the Palestinians.
The best way to undermine Hamas and help the Palestinians is by offering the people a better alternative to the Islamist movement. The current Palestinian Authority leadership is just not seen by many Palestinians as a better alternative to Hamas. That is because the United States, European Union and other donors are not banging on the table and demanding an end to the PA's authoritarian and corrupt conduct.
**Khaled Abu Toameh is an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem.
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