English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 19/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
‘For who has known the mind of the Lord? Or who has been
his counsellor?’ ‘Or who has given a gift to him, to receive a gift in
return?’For from him and through him and to him are all things.
Letter to the Romans 11/25-36: “So that you may not claim to be wiser
than you are, brothers and sisters, I want you to understand this mystery: a
hardening has come upon part of Israel, until the full number of the Gentiles
has come in. And so all Israel will be saved; as it is written, ‘Out of Zion
will come the Deliverer; he will banish ungodliness from Jacob.’‘And this is my
covenant with them, when I take away their sins.’As regards the gospel they are
enemies of God for your sake; but as regards election they are beloved, for the
sake of their ancestors; for the gifts and the calling of God are irrevocable.
Just as you were once disobedient to God but have now received mercy because of
their disobedience, so they have now been disobedient in order that, by the
mercy shown to you, they too may now receive mercy. For God has imprisoned all
in disobedience so that he may be merciful to all. O the depth of the riches and
wisdom and knowledge of God! How unsearchable are his judgements and how
inscrutable his ways! ‘For who has known the mind of the Lord? Or who has been
his counsellor?’ ‘Or who has given a gift to him, to receive a gift in
return?’For from him and through him and to him are all things. To him be the
glory for ever. Amen.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on December
18-19/2024
Elias Bejjani/Text and Video: Why the Disgraceful Silence on Hezbollah’s
Prisons /December 17, 2024
Israeli settlers set up tents in Lebanese border town
Israel army says settlers crossed into Lebanon's Maroun al-Ras in early Dec.
An international counter terrorism force should be dispatched to #Lebanon with
four goals/Dr Walid Phares
Former Minister Yusuf Salamah: It is in America's interest to protect diversity
and minorities, but the establishment of a Kurdish state could serve as a
stabilizing factor and counterbalance to Israel among the peoples of the region/Akbrouna
Akbarouk Site/December 18/2024/
The Border Zone with Lebanon: A Refuge for Syrians Fearing ‘Change’/Beirut:
Thaer Abbas/December 18/2024
Ceasefire monitoring committee meets in Naqoura
Democratic Gathering Bloc Supports Gen. Joseph Aoun for Presidency
Third Day of Israeli Demolitions in Naqoura and Strikes on Lebanese Localities
As Syria’s crisis shifts, Lebanon revisits prisoner amnesty amid growing
pressure, political divides
Jumblat to meet Jolani as nations reach out to new Syria
Democratic Gathering Bloc Supports Gen. Joseph Aoun for Presidency
Jumblat tries to convince Berri of Army chief, and other presidential
developments
Mikati meets Erdogan in Turkey
Opposition MPs Keen on Electing a President on Jan. 9
UN special coordinator for Lebanon meets religious and community Leaders in
Tripoli
Frangieh reaffirms presidential bid, urges unity in upcoming election session
Can the Treaty of Brotherhood, Cooperation and Coordination Be
Cancelled?/Maurice Matta/This is Beirut/December 18/2024
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on December
18-19/2024
UN Council calls for 'inclusive and Syrian-led' political process
'We will stay', Netanyahu says from atop strategic Syrian peak
Syria rescuers say bodies found in warehouse
'Post' unveils Syrian army logs documenting final days of Assad regime –
exclusive
Meeting with Syrian Interim Govt was 'Good Opportunity' for Diplomacy, Berlin
Says
Syria not a threat to world, rebel leader Ahmed al-Sharaa tells BBC
UN's Syria Envoy Calls for 'Free And Fair Elections' after Transition
UN calls for ‘free and fair’ elections in Syria
How America's ally in Syria may have downed a $30 million Reaper drone/Paul
Iddon/Business Insider/December 18, 2024
As part of hostage deal, Hamas demands release of Israel’s most notorious
prisoners/Einav Halab/Ynetnews/December 18/2024
Gaza mediators intensify ceasefire efforts, Israeli strikes kill 20 people
Saudi-Israeli peace will only happen if Gaza war ends, sources tell 'Post
Hamas: Prisoner deportations to Turkey, Qatar could be included in 'imminent'
deal - report
German Minister Says Occupation of Golan Heights Breaches International Law
Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on December
18-19/2024
Iran’s
self-delusion: Tehran scrambles to fix Syria ties after Assad's fall/Seth J.
Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/December 18/2024
South Africa: Next Rich Failed State?/Nils A. Haug/Gatestone Institute./December
18, 2024
10 dilemmas of a Palestinian state, 10 questions Middle East policymakers forget
to ask /David Bedein/Jerusalem Post/December 18/2024
The West is Making a Mistake in Syria, Again/Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat
newspaper/December 18/2024
Israel’s Bashan Arrow operation in Syria continues/David Daoud/FDD's Long War
Journal/December 18/ 2024
1900 Quantum Theory for the Future of the 21st Century/Lawrence Kadish/Gatestone
Institute/December 18, 2024
Outside interference in post-Assad Syria is inevitable/Christopher Phillips/Arab
News/December 18, 2024
on December
18-19/2024
Elias Bejjani/Text and Video: Why the Disgraceful Silence on Hezbollah’s Prisons
After the Horrors of Assad’s Human Slaughterhouses and Human Presses?
From the
Archives: Dozens of Reports Exposing Hezbollah’s Prisons
December 17, 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/12/138103/
Despite all the disgraceful, inhumane, and
unprecedented crimes in modern history that were revealed regarding prisons and
detention centers in Syria after the fall of the tyrant Assad regime, and
despite exposing the bloody practices suffered by both the Lebanese and Syrian
people for 61 years under Baathist rule, 54 of which were under the reign of
Assad’s father and son... Despite these resounding scandals that shook the world
and shocked the consciences of decent human beings, silence still dominates
regarding Hezbollah’s Persian, Jihadist, terrorist, and criminal prisons in
Lebanon.
These are terrifying and illegal detention centers and prisons that many
journalists and politicians have written about, covered by local, Arab, and
international media, with some of their secrets revealed by detainees who
managed to escape after enduring the most horrific types of torture (many such
reports are attached below).
Among those who bravely exposed the reality of Hezbollah’s prisons are Arab,
international, and local television stations, as well as many Lebanese sovereign
journalists and activists, most notably researcher Lokman Slim, whom Hezbollah
assassinated and continues to prevent investigations into his murder.
In previous articles, most dating back to 2015 (attached below), we focused on
the file of Hezbollah’s prisons and the testimonies of those lucky enough to
have escaped without being killed. It is worth noting that most of these
individuals were from the Shiite community, rejecting Hezbollah’s terrorism,
Persian influence, and the fundamentalist lifestyle it imposed on their areas
and families.
Hezbollah, the terrorist group that has assassinated hundreds of Lebanese
opposed to its occupation, continues to fraudulently market what it falsely
calls the "suffering of the detainees of Khiam Prison," which, before 2000,
operated in the Southern border strip area under the supervision of the South
Lebanon Army (SLA) and Israeli security forces. This prison adhered to all
international prison standards; the International Red Cross regularly inspected
it, and detainees’ families visited them. Compared to Assad’s prisons, most
Lebanese prisons, and Hezbollah’s detention centers, it was practically a
paradise—a hotel with hundreds of stars. Nevertheless, Hezbollah attacked,
assassinated, and fabricated charges against many Lebanese, creating false
judicial files to persecute those who worked in that prison among them the
USA/Lebanese victim, Amer Fakhoury.
Today, after the fall of Assad’s regime and the exposure of the atrocities in
its prisons, and after Hezbollah’s terrorist group was defeated and caused its
reckless and senseless war on Israel, resulting in the deaths of more than 5,000
Lebanese, injuries and disabilities to over 30,000 others, and the destruction
of most towns and villages in the South, the Bekaa, and the southern suburbs of
Beirut—what is required, without fear or hesitation and in accordance with local
and international law, is to uncover Hezbollah’s prisons, do justice to those
imprisoned, and reveal the identities of those who killed and tortured them.
Furthermore, the international community and human rights organizations,
particularly the International Red Cross, Human Rights Watch, and Amnesty
International, must act immediately to conduct transparent investigations,
uncover the locations of Hezbollah’s prisons, and document the crimes committed
within them. The Lebanese government also bears responsibility for launching a
serious investigation to reveal the full facts about these illegal and secret
detention centers and to hold those responsible accountable before justice.
Hezbollah, which has forcibly imposed itself as an Iranian occupying authority
in Lebanon since 2005 through its weapons, bears full responsibility for all the
criminal practices inside and outside its prisons in Lebanon, as well as in
Syria, where it fought alongside the Assad regime against the Syrian people.
In fairness and in accordance with the rule of law, the current media blackout
and prevailing fear surrounding the exposure of Hezbollah’s prisons and
detention centers must come to an end. Accordingly, anyone who overlooks or
justifies Hezbollah’s prisons, detention centers, or crimes under the pretexts
of "resistance" or "liberation" is complicit in cementing Iran’s occupation of
Lebanon and displacing its people.
History will not forgive the collaborators and cowards, and the time has come to
raise the voice of truth, expose the atrocities of this terrorist group,
prosecute its leaders, dissolve it, and prevent it from playing any role in
Lebanon under any name or justification.
Israeli settlers set up
tents in Lebanese border town
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/December 18, 2024
BEIRUT: Israeli settlers crossed into Lebanese territory on Wednesday, entering
the border town of Maroun Al-Ras in a significant incident. The group erected
tents and took pictures of themselves in the area. The Israeli army, which has
been present in Lebanese territory since Oct. 1 and remains in the border area,
said that the “serious matter” is being investigated. Photos taken by the
settlers showed two tents and a group of men accompanied by two children. The
group raised banners featuring the Star of David, with the Lebanese cedar —
symbolic of the Lebanese flag — prominently displayed in the center. It was
later discovered that one of the settlers had recently shared a video on social
media in which he told his child, who accompanied him, that Lebanon belongs to
Israel. The video had previously ignited widespread outrage in Lebanon. The
Israeli violations extended to areas near sites belonging to UNIFIL forces
operating south of the Litani River. A UNIFIL statement reported “activities by
the Israeli army near one of our sites in Maroun Al-Ras,” describing the
incident as “both dangerous and unacceptable, as it jeopardizes the safety of
our personnel.”
The two incidents coincided with a meeting of the committee responsible for
overseeing the implementation of the ceasefire agreement. Held at the
headquarters of the Italian unit in Ras Al-Naqoura, the talks brought together
military representatives from the US, France, Lebanon, Israel and UNIFIL.
For the third consecutive day, Israeli forces have continued demolishing and
bulldozing homes, particularly in the town of Naqoura. According to the town’s
mayor, Ali Awada, “the extent of systematic destruction in the town has reached
70 percent since the ceasefire agreement took effect on Nov. 27.” Awada added:
“The Israeli forces are systematically demolishing the town, located just 3 km
from the border. We have been unable to assess the full extent of the damage or
losses firsthand, as the Israeli military has prohibited citizens from entering
the town to inspect their properties. However, images and videos from the area
clearly reveal Israeli machinery bulldozing homes, shops and civilian facilities
in what seems to be a calculated act of retaliation against the town and its
people.”
He expressed his surprise at “the failure of UNIFIL forces and those responsible
for monitoring the ceasefire to prevent Israeli forces from demolishing
infrastructure and civilian facilities in several towns, particularly in Naqoura,
where the UNIFIL headquarters is located.”The destruction extended to areas of
Tyre Harfa, Al-Jabeen and Sheheen in the Tyre District, with residents of Tyre
reporting the sound of explosions. Israeli military reconnaissance aircraft were
operating at low altitudes around the clock over the southern airspace as well
as Beirut and its southern suburbs.
The Lebanese army, in coordination with UNIFIL forces, recovered several bodies
of Hezbollah members who were killed in confrontations with the Israeli army
during the extensive war launched by the Israeli military. In the town of
Adaisseh, located in the Marjeyoun district, the estimated number of bodies was
about 30, all of which were retrieved by the Lebanese Red Cross. The process of
retrieving the bodies from the town of Taybeh is still awaiting approval from
Israel, as requested by UNIFIL forces.
Civil defense teams continued their search for casualties in the northern
neighborhood of Khiam following the withdrawal of the Israeli army from the area
and the advance of the Lebanese army. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati
received a report from Tamara El-Zain, secretary-general of the National Council
for Scientific Research in Lebanon, titled “Israeli Aggressions Against Lebanon
and Sectoral Damages.”It was prepared by the council in collaboration with the
UN Development Program in Lebanon. The headquarters of the Lebanese Press
Syndicate in Beirut witnessed a rally by dozens of activists from the Shiite
Muslim community opposing Hezbollah, hailing from the south and the Bekaa. Their
objective was to launch a rescue plan under the slogan “The State Protects
Us.”Media activist Mohammed Barakat said: “It is necessary to take the Shiite
sect into the state project, after it was proved that sects and weapons do not
protect a group of Lebanese, and after the fall of sectarian dominance projects
in all regions. “We tried (using) weapons. It turned out that they do not
protect us. True security can only be achieved through the state and
international resolutions.”Barakat added that Shiites in Lebanon want “a Lebanon
with one army, without militias that want to liberate Palestine or loose groups
with weapons in all the alleys and sects.”He said that Lebanon should,
ultimately, be a “democratic parliamentary system, based on electoral processes
rather than dominated by weapons, assassinations and black shirts.”The activists
highlighted the “legitimacy of the state, its constitution, the Taif Agreement,
Arab legitimacy and Resolution 1701.”Abiding by these would safeguard the
Lebanese population, “particularly those residing in the South, the Bekaa Valley
and the southern suburbs of Beirut,” they said.
“Lebanon should serve as the ultimate homeland for all its citizens, embracing
an Arab identity and affiliation, characterized by shared interests, prosperity,
development and investment.”
Israel army says settlers crossed into Lebanon's Maroun al-Ras
in early Dec.
Naharnet/December 18, 2024
A group of Israeli settlers have briefly crossed the border into Lebanon before
they were removed by troops, the military acknowledged Wednesday. The settlers
who crossed the border came from the Uri Tzafon movement, a group calling for
Israeli settlement of southern Lebanon. Photos posted by the group online
Saturday showed a small group of settlers holding signs and erecting tents
inside Lebanon while Israeli soldiers were present. After first denying the
reports to Israeli media, the military said Wednesday that civilians had crossed
the border "by a few meters" and were removed by troops.
The military called the border breach a "serious incident" and said it was
investigating. "Any attempt to approach or cross the border into Lebanese
territory without coordination poses a life-threatening risk and interferes with
the IDF’s ability to operate in the area and carry out its mission," the
military said, using the acronym for the Israel Defense Forces. The settler
group Uri Tzafon, which means "Awaken the North" in Hebrew, crossed the border
in the area of the Lebanese village of Maroun al-Ras. In the past, the movement
has said the area is home to an old Hebrew settlement. The group wrote on their
website that 6 families from the movement crossed into Lebanon in early
December, set up tents, planted trees, and set up a memorial corner for Israeli
soldier Yehudah Dror Yahalom who was killed in October in south Lebanon. Groups
of settlers also have breached the Gaza border more than once since the Israel-Hamas
war erupted on Oct. 7, 2023, at one point erecting small wooden tents before
they were evacuated by troops. Daniela Weiss, the leader of the movement to
resettle Gaza, claims she has entered Gaza twice since the start of the war.
Israel’s settler movement has been emboldened by its current government -- the
furthest-right in Israeli history -- and is now seeking to expand to parts of
southern Lebanon and the north of the Gaza.
A group of Israeli settlers have briefly crossed the border into Lebanon
before they were removed by troops, the military acknowledged Wednesday. The
settlers who crossed the border came from the Uri Tzafon movement, a group
calling for Israeli settlement of southern Lebanon. Photos posted by the group
online Saturday showed a small group of settlers holding signs and erecting
tents inside Lebanon while Israeli soldiers were present. After first denying
the reports to Israeli media, the military said Wednesday that civilians had
crossed the border "by a few meters" and were removed by troops.
The military called the border breach a "serious incident" and said it was
investigating. "Any attempt to approach or cross the border into Lebanese
territory without coordination poses a life-threatening risk and interferes with
the IDF’s ability to operate in the area and carry out its mission," the
military said, using the acronym for the Israel Defense Forces. The settler
group Uri Tzafon, which means "Awaken the North" in Hebrew, crossed the border
in the area of the Lebanese village of Maroun al-Ras. In the past, the movement
has said the area is home to an old Hebrew settlement. The group wrote on their
website that 6 families from the movement crossed into Lebanon in early
December, set up tents, planted trees, and set up a memorial corner for Israeli
soldier Yehudah Dror Yahalom who was killed in October in south Lebanon. Groups
of settlers also have breached the Gaza border more than once since the Israel-Hamas
war erupted on Oct. 7, 2023, at one point erecting small wooden tents before
they were evacuated by troops. Daniela Weiss, the leader of the movement to
resettle Gaza, claims she has entered Gaza twice since the start of the war.
Israel’s settler movement has been emboldened by its current government -- the
furthest-right in Israeli history -- and is now seeking to expand to parts of
southern Lebanon and the north of the Gaza.
An international counter
terrorism force should be dispatched to #Lebanon with four goals
Dr Walid Phares/X site/December 18, 2024
An international counter terrorism force should be dispatched to #Lebanon with
four goals:
1. Oversee the implementation of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and the
militias controlled Lebanese government.
2. Start implementing UNSCR 1559 to disarm @Hebollah gradually.
3. Set up a free area from all militias as an interim staging ground for the UN
Resolution. The area should include Mount Lebanon, Administrative #Beirut, North
Lebanon and parts of the #Bekaa
4. Training, equipping, and vetting the Lebanese Army.
The multinational force should operate under chapter 7 of the UN and establish
bases on the coast and the summits of Mount Lebanonm as the Middle East is
facing massive instabilities, such a #force1559 will help stabilize the region.
Former Minister Yusuf
Salamah: It is in America's interest to protect diversity and minorities, but
the establishment of a Kurdish state could serve as a stabilizing factor and
counterbalance to Israel among the peoples of the region.
Akbrouna Akbarouk Site/December 18/2024/Interviewed by Nadia Shrim
(Free translation from Arabic by Elias Bejjani)
Questions abound after the fall of Assad… The fundamental question remains:
What is next?
What about Syria?
What about Lebanon?
What about Iraq?
What is the future of religious and ethnic minorities in the region?
Are we on the verge of a period of genuine peace, or are we preparing for a new
era of protracted wars extending across multiple countries?
Confronted by these questions, anxiety reigns supreme, anticipation prevails,
and close observation remains the only way to discern the contours of the coming
phase, especially with "a strong international will for change and an American
maestro overseeing every detail
This is emphasized by former Minister and international affairs strategist Yusuf
Salamah in an interview with our website.
He stresses that "the picture of the Syrian scene has not yet crystallized, as
Syria is still in the early stages of the 'post-Assad' journey." It is premature
to predict its political future, particularly given that the decision to
overthrow "Bashar" has multiple dimensions and ramifications, foremost among
them the Turkish, Israeli, and American dimensions, in addition to internal
civil will from a domestic environment that aspires to build a civil and
democratic state.
Regarding the repercussions of what has happened on Lebanon, he indicates that
the only direct impact is the closure of the Syrian border to Iran's primary arm
in the region, namely Hezbollah, and consequently, it will contribute to
facilitating military pressure upon it and besieging it in implementation of the
full application of international resolutions in Lebanon.
He adds, "The uprooting of Iran's arms began in Gaza, Palestine, then moved to
Hezbollah in Lebanon, then to Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and very soon it will
inevitably be Iraq's turn." In this context, we should not forget that with the
beginning of the second millennium, the image of Iran's rising role in the
region crystallized clearly.
Israel withdrew from Lebanon, and the victory was exploited by Hezbollah, which
fought a war of resistance against Israel and triumphed over it in 2006, raising
the image of its Secretary-General in the Arab world. With the outbreak of the
war in Yemen and the control of the Houthis, and the fall of Saddam and the
occupation of Iraq, Iran imposed its control over four Arab capitals. One of the
results of Iranian imposition was to accelerate the recognition of the State of
Israel by the Arab people in the Gulf for fear of Iranian expansion towards
them. After this recognition, Iran's function in the Levant became obsolete, and
therefore the new Syrian situation will have a direct impact on Iraq.
Regarding the future of minorities and the talk of fear for them, Salamah says,
"I am not afraid for the minorities in the region because what is happening is
being done with a strong international will, if not to say under direct American
supervision. A leading nation like the United States of America is interested in
preserving the protection of diversity and protecting minorities in the region
so that it remains an essential need for managing influence and the existing
differentiation, thus protecting its interests. It only works according to its
strategic interests.
As for the establishment of states on the ruins of Sykes-Picot, I previously
said that the picture has not yet crystallized, but I can confirm that with the
establishment of the State of Israel in 1948 and with the aim of justifying its
permanence, the establishment of an ethno-racial state for the Kurdish people
becomes a necessity and a central objective. Therefore, I believe that the
establishment of a Kurdish state that will be established on Syrian, Iraqi, and
perhaps Turkish and Iranian lands is natural."
And what is the reason for the establishment of a Kurdish state?
Minister Salamah replies: "The establishment of a Kurdish state may constitute a
factor of stability and balance with the State of Israel among the peoples of
the region and the neighboring region, meaning the Ottoman, Persian, Armenian,
and Arab peoples. As for the other sects, I do not think we are on the verge of
sectarian and denominational states in the Levant, but it may preserve what
remains of the states with federal systems that protect diversity and balance
among the components. Finally, I remind those who encroached upon the permanence
of the Lebanese entity and described it as a child of Western colonialism that
it has been proven to everyone that Lebanon is the only stable entity in the
Levant and that Israel has occupied parts of it several times and withdrawn
under pressure from the international climate that understands the importance of
Lebanon's role and its unique message among nations."
The Border Zone with Lebanon: A Refuge for Syrians Fearing
‘Change’
Beirut: Thaer Abbas/December 18/2024
The road from Beirut to Damascus is now lined with unfamiliar scenes. In just a
few days, everything has changed for those traveling to the Syrian capital by
land from Lebanon. Once an economic lifeline for Damascus, the route bustled
with visitors—Syrians and Lebanese alike—and large trucks carried goods from
Beirut’s port to Syria, a necessity brought on by international sanctions that
have forced the country to rely on this corridor.
The journey to Damascus via Lebanon begins at the Masnaa border crossing, which,
during the early days of Syria’s upheaval, saw unprecedented traffic heading
into Syria. While outbound traffic has returned to normal—or even
declined—inbound activity has surged again. Hundreds of Syrian families line up
at the border, hoping for “humanitarian exceptions” to enter Lebanon. However,
the influx has clogged the route for everyone, even those eligible for entry.
For days, the road was virtually impassable until Lebanese authorities
intervened to reopen it. Still, complaints from Syrians about alleged abuses at
the border prompted General Security chief Major General Elias al-Baysari to
launch an investigation into these violations, followed by measures to reduce
the number of entries to just a few hundred.
Some Syrians leave after being denied entry, only for others to arrive, clinging
to the hope that Lebanon might eventually open its doors. Entry is now
restricted to those with valid residency, travelers transiting through Beirut’s
airport, or individuals with official documentation.
Families wait in cars, with children and women inside while men gather around
fires outside. Ayman, a man in his fifties from rural Damascus, anxiously waits
for permission to cross after being denied entry by the checkpoint. He mentions
receiving a promise that his case will be reviewed. “We are in danger. I won’t
take my children back to die,” he says, refusing to elaborate on the exact
threat. Determined, he vows to remain in the deserted zone indefinitely if
necessary.
Despite no reports of targeted violence against former regime supporters or
religious minorities—especially Shiites—fear remains pervasive. Bilal, a Syrian
from the predominantly Shiite town of Zahraa near Aleppo, recounts how a
relative was killed and claims that his name is on a wanted list. “I’ll never go
back,” he says firmly. The scene repeats itself just
past the first opposition-held checkpoint, opposite the abandoned Syrian
passport office. Crossing is straightforward and no longer requires ID for
Lebanese citizens, unlike in the past. A friendly greeting and a wave from the
armed guards suffice, often accompanied by a smile and “Welcome!” This is a
stark contrast to the past, when multiple military checkpoints, infamous for
soliciting bribes in the form of bread, cigarettes, or cash, made travel
cumbersome.
Now, entering and exiting Syria via land is remarkably easy—no paperwork, no
questions, and no inspections.
Near a victory arch along the road, adorned with images of deposed Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad and his late father Hafez, stands a young man. His old
car is parked nearby, with his wife and three children—all under ten years
old—waiting inside. Hesitantly, he approaches a Lebanese traveler, asking
whether he can enter Lebanon without the “yellow card” once issued by Syrian
authorities for outgoing vehicles. Syrian border guards had turned him away,
warning that Lebanese authorities might confiscate his car.
The man, from the Shiite-majority village of Foua near Idlib, is determined to
reach Lebanon. “I’ve arranged for work with someone there, and I need to leave
as soon as possible,” he explains nervously. Though he insists no one has harmed
him, his unease is evident as he prepares to leave. The Assads’ towering
portraits remain intact, likely due to their height, while those at ground
level have been torn down or trampled. Military checkpoints have been vandalized
or destroyed.
Abandoned vehicles litter the roadside, some still smoldering, while others have
been stripped of all valuables—tires, parts, and accessories. Military vehicles,
tanks, and armored carriers, some still loaded with ammunition, lie deserted
along the route from the border to Damascus. These remnants tell the story of a
collapsed regime and an uncertain future. Scattered among the wreckage are
vehicles destroyed by Israeli missile strikes targeting Syrian air defense
systems, including anti-aircraft launchers mounted on military trucks. The
stretch of abandoned military hardware extends from the Syrian border to the
outskirts of Damascus. These vehicles were once meant to defend the capital but
now lie powerless, deserted by soldiers who left their uniforms discarded along
the roadside as they fled. The old Syrian flag lies tattered and forgotten in
multiple locations, untouched—neither reclaimed nor mourned.
Ceasefire monitoring
committee meets in Naqoura
Naharnet/December 18/2024
Representatives of the United States, France, UNIFIL and the Lebanese and
Israeli armies met Wednesday in Naqoura. The U.S.-led committee that also
includes France, UNIFIL, Lebanon, and Israel, was formed to monitor the
ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel that took effect in late November. This was
the committee's second meeting. "UNIFIL hosted the meeting, with the United
States serving as chair, assisted by France, and joined by the LAF and IDF," the
U.S. and French embassies and UNIFIL said in a joint statement Wednesday, adding
that "the Mechanism will continue to meet in this format regularly and
coordinate closely to support implementation of the ceasefire agreement and
UNSCR 1701." The committee had met earlier this month in Naqoura to "coordinate
their support for the cessation of hostilities that went into effect on November
27." Israel has launched near-daily strikes, mostly in southern Lebanon, that
have killed at least 29 people and wounded 27 others since the ceasefire took
effect. Still, the shaky truce appeared to be holding. Caretaker Prime Minister
Najib Mikati vowed that Israel's ceasefire violations would soon be stopped, as
Israel targeted a car in the southern town of Majdalzoun Tuesday. Israel says
the truce deal with Lebanon gives it the right to use military force against
perceived ceasefire violations.
Democratic Gathering Bloc Supports Gen. Joseph Aoun for Presidency
This is Beirut/December 18/2024
The Democratic Gathering bloc led by the Progressive Party (PSP) announced on
Wednesday the endorsement of Army Commander General Joseph Aoun for the
presidency of the republic. In a meeting attended by former PSP leader Walid
Joumblatt, the bloc emphasized the need of electing a president on January 9,
the date fixed by parliament Speaker Nabih Berri for the electoral session. The
bloc also stressed the necessity of implementing UN resolution 1701 and other
international agreements, as well as the ceasefire agreement between Israel and
Hezbollah that went into effect on November 27. Given the significance of
reinforcing the Lebanese army and security forces, the Democratic Gathering
recalled the Paris summit held by President Emmanuel Macron, which authorized
one billion euros in aid for Lebanon and the Lebanese army.
Third Day of Israeli Demolitions in Naqoura and Strikes on Lebanese Localities
This is Beirut/December 18/2024
For the third consecutive day, Israeli bulldozers demolished several
neighborhoods and homes in Naqoura, southern Lebanon, as well as in the vicinity
of the headquarters of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in
the same area. While bombardments continued in Tyre, the Israeli Army carried
out strikes in the localities of Tayr Harfa, Jebbayn, and Chihine, destroying
several houses. The Israeli Army also reported that a group of Israeli citizens
had crossed the border into Lebanon and set up tents in the Maroun al-Ras area.
An investigation has been opened to determine the ins and outs of this case.
As Syria’s crisis shifts, Lebanon revisits prisoner amnesty amid growing
pressure, political divides
LBCI/December 18/2024
Over the years, several proposals for a general amnesty law for prisoners have
been presented, but each time, they have reached a dead end in discussions
between parliamentary blocs for various reasons. Every time the issue of
Islamist detainees affiliated with the Sunni sect was raised, it was met with a
counterargument involving detainees arrested for various crimes, mainly drug
trafficking, the majority of whom are from the Bekaa region. In between these
two demands, the Christian blocs would bring up the issue of deportees in
Israel, resulting in the proposals being shelved in the Parliament.
Today, with the collapse of the Syrian regime, a delegation from the Muslim
Scholars Association met with Ahmad al-Sharaa, the leader of Hayat Tahrir
al-Sham (HTS), who revealed that he would demand the release of Syrian detainees
in Lebanon connected to the Syrian revolution, once the internal situation in
Syria is resolved. As a result, religious figures in Lebanon have started to
revive the issue of Islamist detainees, pushing for the release of those
detained on charges linked to Syrian detainees, fearing that Syrians will be
released while Lebanese prisoners remain in custody. The first step will be a
move organized by the Muslim Scholars Association next Sunday in downtown
Beirut. At the same time, a new general amnesty law proposal is being worked on
by the National Moderation Bloc, which is withholding details before finalizing
the draft. According to sources from the bloc, the proposal generally stipulates
the pardon of sentenced and detained individuals, except for those convicted of
military murder, bombing crimes and those facing personal lawsuits. For those
convicted in these cases, typically facing the death penalty or life
imprisonment, the proposal includes the possibility of sentence reductions,
which has become a point of contention. A segment of religious leaders opposes
the length of the proposed reduction, calling for it to be shortened. Regarding
drug-related cases, the proposal differentiates between serious drug traffickers
and ordinary individuals accused or suspected of involvement. In security
matters, the proposal also eliminates all communication documents, or "303
memos," that were previously issued by military intelligence for checkpoints to
arrest individuals based on security suspicions.mThe National Moderation Bloc’s
proposal has not yet been presented to the parliamentary blocs for review and
feedback. However, some of the lawmakers acknowledged that there are individuals
wrongfully imprisoned, especially given that more than 6,000 detainees are still
awaiting trial. These lawmakers also note that anyone involved in the killing of
a military official will not be released. Public opinion, however, differs.
Sources in the Detainees' Families Committee in Baalbek-Hermel say they are not
looking to serve the demands of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. The question remains: will
this issue create a new rift in society, or will it be resolved due to the new
political equations in the region?
Jumblat to meet Jolani as nations reach out to new Syria
Agence France Presse/December 18/2024
Former Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat will travel Saturday
with a delegation to Syria to meet with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leader Abu Mohammed
al-Jolani who now prefers to be called Ahmad al-Sharaa, a local media outlet
said. Al-Jadeed TV channel said Jubmlat, along with MPs from the Democratic
Gathering bloc and Druze religious figures, will congratulate al-Sharaa for
ousting Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. Jumblat had called al-Jolani over the
weekend following al-Assad's ouster. Assad fled Syria just over a week ago, as
his forces abandoned tanks and other equipment in the face of a lightning
offensive spearheaded by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. The collapse of
Assad's rule on December 8 stunned the world and sparked celebrations around
Syria and beyond, after his crackdown on democracy protests in 2011 led to one
of the deadliest wars of the century. Across Lebanon, the Middle East, and
beyond, the fall of Syria’s authoritarian government set off waves of
jubilation, trepidation and alarm. Many Lebanese exulted at the overthrow of the
Syrian leader while others worried about more instability rocking a region in
turmoil. Jumblat, for his part, celebrated Assad's ouster "after a lengthy
wait." He told former PM Saad Hariri that by Assad's fall "justice was achieved"
for his slain father Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and other March 14 figures.
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati called for a strict control of the border
with Syria and for distancing Lebanon from the developments there. He urged the
Lebanese "of all affiliations" to be "wise" and "avoid emotional
reactions."Mikati met Wednesday with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in
Ankara. The two leaders will reportedly discuss "the future of the
Syrian-Lebanese relations" after Assad's fall and the fate of Lebanese thought
to be detained in Syrian prisons since Lebanon's civil war.
Syria rebels' past in Lebanon -
Rooted in Syria's branch of Al-Qaeda, HTS is proscribed by several Western
governments as a terrorist organization, though it has sought to moderate its
rhetoric and pledged to protect the country's religious minorities. IS militants
and Al-Nusra, which later became HTS when al-Jolani broke ranks with al-Qaeda,
attacked and executed in 2014, during Syria's civil war, Lebanese security
forces in the Lebanese border town of Arsal. Lebanon got involved in Syria's
civil war, as Hezbollah fought alongside Assad's troops in Syria against the
rebels who carried out in return bomb attacks inside Lebanon in Tripoli and in
Hezbollah's southern Beirut stronghold. Jumblat declares support for Syrians
Jumblat declared Tuesday his support for Syrians. "We cannot but deal positively
with the new Syrian regime," he said, adding that he is not worried about an
Islamic rule in Syria. "Give the Syrian people a chance to breathe. They've just
been freed after 61 years in prison."Jumblat went on to say that some mistakes
made in the past must be fixed and that a "diverse and democratic Syria" is now
needed. "Let's support Syrians as much as we can," he said.
Lebanon 'shouldn't fear' new Syria -
The Lebanese "should not have fears," Syria's new government spokesman Obaida
Arnaout, told Lebanon’s LBCI television last week. He said "the goal of the
Syrian revolution was the ouster of Bashar al-Assad" and that "Syria will be a
civil state" and will "respect Lebanon's sovereignty."
HTS steps up world engagement -
Syria's new rulers have stepped up engagement with countries that deemed al-Assad
a pariah, with the French flag raised Tuesday at the embassy for the first time
in over a decade. The EU will reopen its mission in Syria following
"constructive" talks with its new leadership, the bloc's foreign policy chief
Kaja Kallas said, describing it as a "very important step". Turkey and Qatar,
which backed the anti-Assad opposition, have reopened embassies in Damascus,
while U.S. and British officials have launched communications with Syria's new
leaders. France, an early backer of the uprising, sent a delegation to Damascus
on Tuesday, with special envoy Jean-Francois Guillaume saying his country was
preparing to stand with Syrians during the transitional period. An AFP
journalist saw the French flag raised in the embassy's entrance hall for the
first time since the mission was shuttered in 2012. After meeting Syria's new
leaders, the United Nations humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher said on Tuesday he
was "encouraged", and that there was a "basis for ambitious scaling-up of vital
humanitarian support". German diplomats were also in Damascus on Tuesday, while
Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni said her country was ready to engage with
the new leadership. Syria came under international sanctions over Assad's
crackdown on protests, which sparked a war that killed more than 500,000 people
and forced half of the population to flee their homes. Assad left behind a
country scarred by decades of torture, disappearances and summary executions, as
well as economic mismanagement that has left 70 percent of the population in
need of aid. The EU's Kallas said the lifting of sanctions and removing HTS from
its blacklist would depend on "when we see positive steps, not the words, but
actual steps and deeds from the new leadership". The United Nations expects one
million people to return to Syria in the first half of 2025, after the war
pushed six million people to seek refuge abroad.
Democratic Gathering Bloc Supports Gen. Joseph Aoun for Presidency
This is Beirut/December 18/2024
The Democratic Gathering bloc led by the Progressive Party (PSP) announced on
Wednesday the endorsement of Army Commander General Joseph Aoun for the
presidency of the republic. In a meeting attended by former PSP leader Walid
Joumblatt, the bloc emphasized the need of electing a president on January 9,
the date fixed by parliament Speaker Nabih Berri for the electoral session. The
bloc also stressed the necessity of implementing UN resolution 1701 and other
international agreements, as well as the ceasefire agreement between Israel and
Hezbollah that went into effect on November 27. Given the significance of
reinforcing the Lebanese army and security forces, the Democratic Gathering
recalled the Paris summit held by President Emmanuel Macron, which authorized
one billion euros in aid for Lebanon and the Lebanese army.
Jumblat tries to convince Berri of Army chief, and other presidential
developments
Naharnet/December 18/2024
Former Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat has tried to convince
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri of electing Army chief Gen. Joseph Aoun as
president, several local media reports said. Jumblat had met Berri on Monday and
both said they were optimistic that a president would be elected in a session
scheduled for January 9. Pro-Hezbollah al-Akhbar newspaper said Wednesday that
Jumblat told Berri after having met with French President Emmanuel Macron in
France that the west is leaning towards the election of Aoun, and that Paris
prefers banker Samir Assaf or ex-minister Ziad Baroud but would not oppose
Aoun's election if a consensus is reached on his name. Nidaa al-Watan newspaper
reported for its part that Berri's condition was that Aoun must support and
protect the "resistance", referring to Hezbollah. MTV later said that Berri said
he is "not totally against electing Aoun" but wants to discuss the matter with
Hezbollah. On another note, MP Farid Haykal al-Khazen, who is reportedly a
current presidential candidate, met Wednesday with Maronite Patriarch Beshara
al-Rahi, and discussed the presidential file with him. Al-Khazen had initiated
talks with different blocs in an attempt to bridge the gap between them in order
to reach a consensus on a president's name. "The blocs are aware of the
importance of the (January 9) session and that the vacuum cannot go on," al-Khazen
said.
Al-Rahi also met Wednesday with Free Patriotic movement MP George Atallah as the
FPM seeks to reach a consensus through consultations with different parties.
- Who are Lebanon's current presidential candidates? -
According to several local media reports, in addition to Aoun, Lebanon's current
candidates are ex-ambassador to the Vatican and former army intelligence chief
Brig. Gen. George Khoury, MP Farid Haykal al-Khazen, General Security chief Maj.
Gen. Elias Bayssari, ex-minister Ziad Baroud, ex-minister Jean-Louis Cardahi,
ex-minister Jihad Azour, ex-MP Salah Honein, MP Neemat Frem, ex-minister Nassif
Hitti, and banker Samir Assaf. FPM chief Jebran Bassil reportedly supports
Khoury, Bayssari and Baroud while Berri supports Khoury, Bayssari, and al-Khazen.
The opposition, on the other hand, supports Aoun, Azour, Honein, Frem and Hitti.
According to al-Akhbar, the U.S., France, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar also have
different preferences. The daily claimed that the U.S. and Saudi Arabia support
Aoun, while France supports Assaf, Baroud, and Hitti and Qatar supports Bayssari.
The four countries, along with Egypt, have been working for months to facilitate
the election of a president, as crisis-hit Lebanon has been without a head of
state for more than two years amid deadlock between pro- and anti-Hezbollah
blocs in parliament.
Is Geagea a candidate? -
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea has said that he was ready to run for
president if he could secure enough political support. Geagea said, in an
interview last week with the Hala London TV, that although the country has
entered a new phase, some blocs are dealing with things the same way they did in
the past, suggesting early parliamentary elections to start the new phase with a
new mentality and a new parliament. Kataeb leader Sami Gemayel who supports Aoun,
said he wouldn't mind voting for Geagea if he runs for the presidency. Gemayel
said he might himself run for president. "My candidacy is not currently on the
table, but everything is possible," he said. "The priority now is to save
Lebanon."
Mikati meets Erdogan in Turkey
Naharnet/December 18/2024
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati met Wednesday with Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara and reportedly discussed with him the latest
developments in Syria and south Lebanon. Mikati was accompanied by a ministerial
delegation, the Lebanese Army representative, and Lebanon's ambassador to
Turkey. "He will discuss in Turkey the land demarcation between Lebanon and
Syria after al-Assad's ouster," al-Jadeed had reported, while al-Joumhouria
newspaper learned from a ministerial source that Mikati will discuss with
Erdogan "the future of the Syrian-Lebanese relations" and the fate of the
Lebanese missing in Syria's prions.,Since a Lebanese an, who was missing for 40
years, was freed by Syrian rebels from a prison in Hama last week, many Lebanese
families are demanding to know the fate of their loved ones who are thought to
be detained in Syrian prisons since Lebanon's civil war when Syrian troops were
in Lebanon.mMikati will also discuss with Turkish leaders the developments in
south Lebanon after a ceasefire agreement was reached in late November, al-Joumhouria
said.
Opposition MPs Keen on Electing a President on Jan. 9
This is Beirut/December 18/2024
Opposition MPs reiterated on Wednesday that they will approach the January 9
presidential election session with “utmost seriousness,” stressing that “dealing
with this issue with the necessary (strong) will should lead to the election of
a president who will be a prelude to saving Lebanon.”As part of their regular
meetings, the participants underlined that the future president will have to
uphold and carry out international resolutions, the National Accord and the
Lebanese Constitution. The necessity of “limiting weapons to the hands of the
legitimate forces on all Lebanese territories, north and south of the Litani”
was reaffirmed, as well as the importance of completely implementing the
ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah. They also considered that the
next phase should be focused on establishing Lebanon “on solid constitutional
foundations as soon as a president is elected.”
The participating MPs included Sami Gemayel, head of the Kataeb party, Ashraf
Rifi, Fouad Makhzoumi, Mark Daou, Elias Hankach, Nadim Gemayel, Ghassan Hasbani,
Waddah Sadek, Bilal Houchaymi, Michel Moawad and Michel Douaihy.
UN special coordinator for Lebanon meets religious and community Leaders in
Tripoli
Naharnet/December 18/2024
United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert
visited Tuesday Tripoli in north Lebanon. At the Maronite Archdiocese in
Tripoli, the Special Coordinator met with the Archbishop of the Maronite
Archdiocese of Tripoli Bishop Youssef Soueif, the Mufti of Tripoli and the North
Sheikh Mohammad Imam, the Greek Orthodox Metropolitan of Tripoli Archbishop
Aphram Kyriacos, the President the Islamic Alawite Council in Lebanon Sheikh Ali
Mahmoud Qaddour, MP Ashraf Rifi, MP Elias Khoury, MP Jamil Aboud and security
officials. Given recent developments in Lebanon, alongside seismic changes
taking place in Syria, they discussed the importance of preserving Lebanon’s
tradition of peaceful coexistence, which is key to the country’s stability. "The
role of a functioning, effective and empowered State that embraces and unites
all its citizens was highlighted," the Office of the United Nations Special
Coordinator for Lebanon (UNSCOL) said in a statement. While acknowledging the
impact of accumulating political, socioeconomic and security crises seen across
the country, including Tripoli, the participants agreed that the time had come
for Lebanon to turn towards a more sustainable future in which tolerance,
openness and equal opportunities allow all people and communities to flourish.
An inclusive recovery process would also help to rebuild people’s trust, they
noted.
The Special Coordinator reiterated the readiness and commitment of the United
Nations to continue supporting all efforts aimed at consolidating Lebanon’s
security and stability and advancing its long-term recovery.
Frangieh reaffirms presidential bid, urges unity in
upcoming election session
LBCI/December 18/2024
Sleiman Frangieh, the leader of the Marada Movement, reaffirmed his candidacy
for Lebanon's presidency. During a dinner event, Frangieh stated, "If we agree
on a name during the January 9 session, I am open to it, but we need a candidate
who matches the significance of the moment." He emphasized, "We want a president
worthy of the position, someone who can lead Lebanon into a new phase for the
country's benefit."Frangieh added, "We won’t conflict with our allies, nor
should we fear this process. We want a name suitable for the current phase, and
if we’re not part of selecting a proposed candidate, it’s more honorable to
remain outside the equation." He continued, "Our priority is solving the
country's problems. While our chances were high but have declined, we have
presented a vision based on clear criteria. We cannot attend the session without
a candidate." Frangieh urged Samir Geagea and the Lebanese Forces to participate
in the election session, stressing that responsibility cannot be avoided. He
also clarified that agreeing on a candidate does not mean choosing a president
acceptable to all parties without any reservations.
Finally, Frangieh expressed his hopes for Syria's prosperity and unity, wishing
for it to remain an Arab country and Lebanon's gateway to the East.
Can the Treaty of Brotherhood, Cooperation and Coordination Be Cancelled?
Maurice Matta/This is Beirut/December 18/2024
On May 22, 1991, the late Lebanese President Elias Hrawi and former Syrian
President Hafez al-Assad signed the “Treaty of Brotherhood, Cooperation and
Coordination,” which came into effect with the implementation of the Taif
Agreement. The treaty, which governed Lebanon’s politics for more than 15 years
and presumably safeguarded its national sovereignty, led to several agreements
and protocols, including the establishment of the Syrian-Lebanese Higher
Council.
After formal diplomatic relations were established between Lebanon and Syria in
2008, and ambassadors exchanged, numerous questions arose about the feasibility
of maintaining the Syrian-Lebanese Higher Council, which symbolizes a dark era
and represents a gateway to wastefulness. Nonetheless, the Higher Council
continued to manage tasks that fall under the prerogatives of the ambassadors.
With the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, voices within Lebanon have
increasingly called for dismantling all that the fallen regime represented,
including the Higher Council. They underlined the need to find appropriate
mechanisms to review all protocols and agreements signed between Lebanon and
Syria during Assad’s rule, notably the “Treaty of Brotherhood, Cooperation and
Coordination,” with the aim of eventually canceling it.
Many voices in Lebanon have also demanded that the Lebanese government move
quickly to change the names of public facilities, roads and squares bearing
names associated with the Assad regime era, such as the Hafez al-Assad Highway,
the Hafez al-Assad Intersection (also known as the Kuwaiti Embassy Intersection
in Lebanon) and the Basil al-Assad Cultural Center, among others.
The Higher Council was headquartered in Damascus, with Nasri Khoury serving as
its Secretary-General since 1993. It groups the Presidents of the Republic,
Speakers of Parliament, Prime Ministers and Deputy Prime Ministers in both
contracting states. The council is tasked with formulating the general policy
for coordination and cooperation in various fields and supervising its
implementation. The decisions of the Higher Council are binding and effective in
accordance with the two countries’ constitutional frameworks. The council also
determines the subjects over which specialized committees are authorized to make
decisions that become immediately enforceable, in line with constitutional norms
and procedures in both countries or insofar as they do not conflict with these
norms and procedures.
The Higher Council has been tasked with formulating coordination and cooperation
on all levels—economic, social, trade, political and more. It is granted
procedural powers that conflict with the constitution. It is also notable that
the Lebanese members of the Syrian-Lebanese Higher Council hold no
decision-making authority. Furthermore, the council has been granted the
authority to make binding and enforceable decisions as a general rule, whereas
referring matters to the government or Parliament was made the exception.
Fundamental Violations in the “Treaty of Brotherhood, Cooperation and
Coordination” Between Lebanon and Syria:
The treaty made the Higher Council a decision-making body on numerous
significant matters, which contradicts the Lebanese Constitution.
The treaty rendered the council's decisions binding and enforceable, despite the
council lacking any constitutional authority.
The treaty granted the council's Secretary-General powers that constitute
constitutional violations.
The treaty’s content is inconsistent with the Lebanese Constitution, whereas
international treaties must not contradict the constitution of the states that
sign them.
The treaty granted Syrian members of the Higher Council decision-making
authority, in blatant violation of the Lebanese Constitution.
The task of canceling the “Treaty of Brotherhood, Cooperation and Coordination”
does not fall within the jurisdiction of the Lebanese Parliament, as it cannot
annul an international treaty. Instead, finding the appropriate mechanism to
renegotiate the treaty is a constitutional responsibility of the Lebanese
President and government.
Legally, can the Lebanese state withdraw from the agreements signed between the
two countries and abolish the Syrian-Lebanese Higher Council? In November 2020,
the council's Secretary-General, Nasri Khoury, stated that the council cannot be
unilaterally dissolved, as it was not established by a Lebanese decision but
rather by an internationally recognized and officially registered treaty.
Cancellation, in general, requires the mutual consent of both parties. According
to the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties of 1969, there are specific
conditions that must be met for any state to unilaterally withdraw from a
bilateral agreement. Lebanon is a member of the 1969 Vienna Convention, and
Syria signed it in 1970.
The convention outlines reasons and conditions allowing a state to unilaterally
withdraw from agreements, including impossibility of execution, force majeure,
changes in circumstances, one party's domination over the other and violation of
the treaty by one of the signatories.
There are currently 42 trade and economic agreements between Lebanon and Syria.
Following the fall of Assad's regime, Lebanese economic bodies sent two letters
to Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati,
urging them to review the treaty and reassess all bilateral agreements,
including protocols, memoranda, programs and contracts, to ensure Lebanon’s
interests are served equitably and soundly across all sectors, especially the
economic and trade sectors.
The late MP Albert Moukheiber had highlighted the key violations in the “Treaty
of Brotherhood, Cooperation and Coordination,” emphasizing the need for the
government to work on amending it, especially by abolishing the permanent bodies
established under the treaty, foremost among them the Higher Council and the
General Secretariat, for their constitutional violations and incompatibility
with diplomatic representation.
Amid these developments, the Lebanese government must shoulder its
responsibilities by renegotiating the treaty with the new Syrian leadership. The
ratification of these agreements requires a law passed by the Lebanese
Parliament. Thus, a new law must be issued to introduce amendments or
cancellations. This is where the role of Parliament comes into play.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on December
18-19/2024
UN
Council calls for 'inclusive and Syrian-led' political process
Associated Press/December 18, 2024
The UN Security Council has called for an "inclusive and Syrian-led" political
process to be implemented after Bashar al-Assad's ouster. The Council issued its
first statement on new Syria, calling for a Syrian-led political process leading
to elections and urging all nations to respect the country’s sovereignty,
independence, unity and territorial integrity. The council said Syrians should
“peacefully, independently and democratically determine their own futures” based
on key principles in a 2015 council resolution that sets out a roadmap to peace
calling for a new constitution and U.N.-monitored elections. It said the process
should be facilitated by the United Nations and backed efforts being taken by
U.N. envoy Geir Pedersen. The statement released Tuesday night makes no mention
of the Dec. 8 ouster of Assad, who fled to close ally Russia, that was led by
the militant opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. The Security Council
reiterated support for the U.N. peacekeeping force known as UNDOF monitoring the
Israel-Syria border following the 1973 Mideast war. It stressed the obligation
of all parties to the 1974 Disengagement Agreement that established a
demilitarized buffer zone between the countries to abide by its terms and reduce
tensions. The council statement, approved by all 15 members, underscored the
importance of combatting terrorism in Syria and preventing the Islamic State
extremist group from re-establishing its stronghold in the country. IS militants
seized large parts of Iraq and Syria in 2014, declaring a caliphate that ended
in 2019 though IS pockets remain. The Security Council also reiterated Syria’s
obligation to respect human rights and international humanitarian law. This
includes the right to seek justice and allow and facilitate humanitarian access
to millions in need, the statement said.
'We will stay', Netanyahu says from atop strategic Syrian peak
Associated Press/December 18, 2024
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Israeli forces will stay in a
buffer zone on the Syrian border, seized after the ouster of Syria's President
Bashar Assad, until another arrangement is in place "that ensures Israel's
security."
Netanyahu made the comments Tuesday from the summit of Mount Hermon — the
highest peak in the area — inside Syria, about 10 kilometers from the border
with the Israel-held Golan Heights. It appeared to be the first time a sitting
Israeli leader had set foot that far into Syria. Netanyahu said he had been on
the same mountaintop 53 years ago as a soldier, but the summit's importance to
Israel's security has only increased given recent events. Israel seized a swath
of southern Syria along the border with the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights days
after Assad was ousted by rebels last week. Israel's capture of the buffer zone,
a roughly 400-square-kilometer demilitarized area in Syrian territory, has
sparked condemnation, with critics accusing Israel of violating a 1974 ceasefire
and possibly exploiting the chaos in Syria in the wake of Assad's ouster to make
a land grab. "We will stay ... until another arrangement is found that ensures
Israel's security," said Netanyahu who had traveled to the buffer zone on
Tuesday with Defense Minister Israel Katz.
Katz said he instructed the Israeli military to quickly establish a presence,
including fortifications, in anticipation of what could be an extended stay in
the area. "The summit of the Hermon is the eyes of the state of Israel to
identify our enemies who are nearby and far away," he said. An Israeli military
official, who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with military regulations,
said there is no plan to evacuate the Syrians living in villages within the
buffer zone. The buffer zone between Syria and the Israeli-controlled Golan
Heights was created by the U.N. after the 1973 Mideast war. A U.N. force of
about 1,100 troops had patrolled the area since then.
A U.N. spokesman said Tuesday that the advance of Israeli troops, however long
it lasts, violates the deal that set up the buffer zone. That agreement "needs
to be respected, and occupation is occupation, whether it lasts a week, a month
or a year, it remains occupation," spokesman Stephane Dujarric said. There was
no immediate comment from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the insurgent group that led the
ouster of Assad, or from Arab states. Israel still controls the Golan Heights,
which it captured from Syria during the 1967 Mideast war and later annexed — a
move not recognized by most of the international community. Mount Hermon's
summit is divided between the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, Lebanon, and Syria.
Only the United States recognizes Israel's control of the Golan Heights. With
Assad gone, a top U.N. official said Tuesday that militant leaders who have
taken over Syria have committed to "an ambitious scaling-up of vital
humanitarian support" for millions in desperate need of food and other aid. The
leader of the insurgent HTS — Ahmad al-Sharaa, formerly known as Mohammed al-Golani
— and the country's caretaker prime minister, Mohammed al-Bashir, pledged to
support the movement of aid from Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and other neighboring
countries "for as long as humanitarian operations are required," said Tom
Fletcher. Fletcher, who heads the the U.N. Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs, known as OCHA, spoke to the U.N. Security Council members
from Damascus via a video link. Germany said Tuesday that its diplomats had also
met with insurgent leaders to discuss Syria's political transition and "our
expectations regarding the protection of minorities and women's rights."German
officials, who have noted the rebel group's history of links to al-Qaida, said
they will measure the group and the new government based on its actions. The
United States has previously said that its officials have been in direct contact
with HTS insurgents who ousted Assad.
Also Tuesday, U.S.-backed and Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces proposed that
the Kurdish-majority town of Kobani in northern Syria become a demilitarized
zone, and that there be a "redistribution of security forces under American
supervision and presence."
Turkey, which backs the Syrian insurgents who toppled Assad, is also battling
the Syrian Kurdish militia, considering it a terror group allied with the
Kurdish insurgency within its own borders. Syrian Kurdish forces were a key U.S.
ally in the fight against the extremist Islamic State group. In other
developments, bodies of more than 30 Syrians who vanished under Assad's rule
were uncovered in a mass grave on Monday. Forensic teams and rebels worked
together to unearth the remains in the village of Izraa, north of the city of
Daraa, as families of the missing stood by. The relatives said they had
initially hoped to find their loved ones in prison. "But we didn't find anyone
and it broke our hearts. They were burned alive here after being doused in
fuel," said Mohammad Ghazaleh, who was waiting at the mass grave site. Some of
the bodies recovered showed evidence that they had been shot in the head or
burned, said Moussa Al-Zouebi, head of Izraa's health directorate. Syria's new
authorities have set up a hotline for reporting missing persons and secret
detention sites. In the Syrian capital of Damascus, Qatar officially reopened
its embassy on Tuesday — nearly 13 years after it severed diplomatic relations
with Assad's government. Qatar had reaffirmed its "categorical rejection of the
regime's repressive policies against the Syrian people" in a statement earlier.
Most foreign embassies in Syria have been shut down since after the country's
civil war erupted in 2011. The French Embassy in Damascus raised its flag
Tuesday in a "symbolic gesture" to show support for the Syrian people during the
transition. It's reopening is pending ongoing evaluation of political and
security conditions, French Foreign Minister French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël
Barrot said. The Turkish Embassy in Damascus also recently reopened.
Syria rescuers say bodies found in warehouse
AFP/December 18, 2024
DAMASCUS: A Syrian civil defense official said Wednesday that White Helmets
rescuers discovered unidentified bodies and remains in a medicine warehouse in a
Damascus suburb, 10 days after Bashar Assad’s ouster. An AFP video journalist at
the scene said the warehouse strewn with medicine boxes was located just around
50 meters (yards) from the Sayyida Zeinab shrine, a revered site for Shiite
Muslims. “We received a report about the presence of bodies, bones and a foul
smell at the site,” White Helmets official Ammar Al-Salmo told AFP. South
Damascus’s Sayyida Zeinab suburb was a stronghold of pro-Iran fighters including
Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group before militants took the capital on December
8 in a lightning offensive. “In the warehouse, we found a refrigerated room
containing decomposing corpses,” Salmo said, adding that some appeared to have
died more than a year and a half earlier. He said human bones were also
scattered on the ground, estimating there were around 20 “victims.”AFP saw men
in white suits removing bodies and remains in black bags and placing them onto a
truck. Salmo said the words Aleppo-Hraytan — Syria’s second city in the north,
and a nearby location — and numbers were written on bags where the unidentified
bodies were found. “We are going to establish the age of the victims” then take
samples for DNA tests “and try to locate their families,” Salmo added. AFP was
unable to independently ascertain the reason for the presence of the remains or
the identities of the bodies. Since Assad’s ouster, a number of mass graves have
been uncovered in the country. The fate of tens of thousands of prisoners and
missing people remains one of the most harrowing parts of the Syrian conflict,
which has claimed more than 500,000 lives. In 2022, the Syrian Observatory for
Human Rights monitor estimated that more than 100,000 people had died in prison,
mostly due to torture, since the war began.
'Post' unveils Syrian army
logs documenting final days of Assad regime – exclusive
Jerusalem Post/December 18/2024
Documents detail the moment Syrian soldiers started to flee, their watching of
IDF maneuvers, and their feelings on "the beloved leader", Bashar Assad.
From 1974 until December 7-8 of this year, the Syrian border was an extremely
dangerous one where neither Israeli soldiers nor journalists would dare set
foot, other than rare covert operations where generally covered in a fog of
mystery. Syrian society and the Syrian military themselves were also an opaque
mystery to most Israelis and much of the outside world. And yet with the fall of
the Assad regime only a few days before, on December 11, The Jerusalem Post
participated in a dramatic visit to an abandoned Syrian base at Tel Kudne in
southern Syria, embedded with the IDF, as part of the first Israeli media visit
to that country since the 1973-4 Yom Kippur War and armistice. From the top of
Tel Kudne, which was the site of an intense battle during the 1973 War, the
nearby village of Kudne was visible below as well as the village of Jaba, and
other Syrian villages and hills were visible deeper in the distance. On the
Israeli side of the border, the closest villages in sight were Alonei Habashan
and Keshet, which are slightly east of the Gamla National Park and Katzrin in
the Golan.'Post' visits Syrian base. The Post arrived at the Syrian base at Tel
Kudne in less than 20 minutes after leaving Israeli territory on an extremely
bumpy road in a Sandcat Tigris, a small armored vehicle, very slowly winding
through the Kudne village for a couple of kilometers, which was almost entirely
deserted. During the Post’s trip to the Syrian military base at Tel Kudne in
southern Syria, it was noticed that various Syrian army materials had been
openly discarded lying in public areas. Suddenly, the veil of secrecy was lifted
on a hostile armed force which had been unbreachable until only a few weeks
before. Below are a few vignettes from a few different books after aspects of
those books, written in Arabic, were translated to English. One of the books is
a logbook of military activity observed by Syrian soldiers on guard duty, while
another book is a Syrian army manual for understanding how to operate weapons
and other machinery, as well as how to conduct oneself in different formal
military situations.
The logbook
The logbook is signed by the brigadier general of the Syrian army’s 87th
regiment.
Probably the most noteworthy section which the Post has uncovered so far – each
book contains hundreds of pages – is a period of several days at the end of
November describing the beginnings of Syrian army units fleeing as well as their
observation of Israeli military moves. On November 27, 2024, the log book said
that “gunfire was heard deep in hostile territory.”Subsequently, the book notes
that, “they folded the tent and all of them got into their cars, leaving the
area of operations from the east gate…the gate was shut, with some machinery
still left at the area of operations.”It is noteworthy that the regime of Bashar
Assad in Damascus only fell completely over December 7-8 and that the Tel Kudne
Syrian soldiers seem to be describing some other Syrian army unit fleeing, not
themselves. In fact, IDF sources told the Post during the recent visit to the
base, that the final Syrian soldiers only abandoned the base around December 7.
That said, the Syrian rebel attack on Aleppo started slightly before November
27, such that the impact of that attack could have already started to
reverberate throughout the Syrian army.
On November 28, the log book said that “fighter jets were heard deep in hostile
territory”
Although other possibilities are theoretically possible, including Russian
aircraft, based on the southern Syria location, it is overwhelmingly likely that
this is the sighting of an Israeli aircraft. Though it is possible that an
Israeli aircraft was in Syria, it is more likely that the Syrian observer is
tracking Israeli aircraft in Israel or possibly in Lebanon, though that area is
farther off and on a different part of Israel’s border. There is also an outside
shot that what was heard or seen was fighting between Assad and rebel forces all
within Syria, but this is unlikely based on the southern Syrian location of the
base.
Then on November 29, the log book said, “an intelligence one [a drone] was heard
deep in hostile territory. Artillery fire was heard deep in hostile territory.”
Once again, it is likely that these are Israeli military moves from within
Israeli territory or with reference to Israeli moves in Lebanon. Although the
word “drone” was not used, the description and context dictate that the movement
which was heard was likely from a drone.
Finally, on November 30, the log book said that, “artillery fire was heard deep
in hostile territory.”
This is the last entry in the logbook which the Post found. It is unknown if
there was another logbook or if the Syrian soldiers taking the logs abandoned
their tasks or their posts at this point, even if some Syrian soldiers remained
at their posts until December 7-8.
The logbook goes back a significant amount in time and the Post is still
reviewing other entries.
But one example of another series of entries is from April 7-19
From April 7-11, the logbook said that “fog covers the entire sector.”
On April 12 at 12:00 noon, “a fighter was spotted,” again likely indicating an
Israeli aircraft.
On April 14 the logbook said that no sighting was recorded
On April 19, the logbook said that an “Israeli jet sighted (flying) to Tell
Hudhayfa in the area of Quneitra.” Later, on April 19, there is a second entry
which said, “A fighter jet was heard.”
In between the April dates sighted, the Arabic writing was harder to decipher.
Notably, on April 19 the entry specifically references an “Israeli” fighter jet,
as opposed to other entries which do not specify who the aircraft were
associated with.
Although nothing is certain, presumably the Syrian soldier got a clearer and
closer look at this Israeli aircraft than he did on the other dates in question.
Also, it is unclear whether the fighter jet on April 19 is the same aircraft
cited twice at different times or two different Israeli aircraft.
At least some of these entries were “reported by first lieutenant Ja’afar Zaher
to his commander first lieutenant Ja’afar Makhlouf.”
One of the Syrian army books provides an incredibly ironic quote, saying, “A
tiny piece from a shoe of a soldier of the Syrian Arab Army is worth more than
the heads of all the traitors – the beloved leader Bashar al-Assad.”
This quote is profoundly ironic given that the entire Syrian army, including the
presidential guard, brisky abandoned their posts and became “traitors” against
Assad from November 30-December 8. It is also ironic given that the “beloved
leader” is now permanently exiled to Moscow, escaping with his life only due to
foreign intervention.
The manual
Another Syrian army manual discusses weapons and field signals.
Regarding using a machine gun, the manual said, “The Degtyaryov light machine
gun is considered an automatic weapon and one of the most powerful weapons for
shooting in the group of weapons. It is intended to destroy the enemy forces and
to impact the enemy’s own ability to attack with gunfire.”
Regarding field signals, the manual said that for coming to attention, soldiers
must “raise the right hand up, extended, and the palm open until you receive a
response.”
For meeting subordinate leaders, the manual said, “raise the right hand up and
rotate it above the head, then lower the hand in a glorified motion.”
Next, for showing that a soldier is in a state of readiness, the manual said to
“raise the right hand at a right angle and clasp it.” For moving forward, the
manual said that soldiers should “raise the right hand up, palm open, then lower
it down.”
One book is signed by many persons, including one who says he was born in 1951.
Given that if this was a soldier it would make the soldier 73 years old, it is
unclear what the context was of the person who signed the book.
The Post may publish additional materials from the Syrian army books in the
future.
Meeting with Syrian Interim
Govt was 'Good Opportunity' for Diplomacy, Berlin Says
Asharq Al Awsat/December 18/ 2024
German diplomats' meeting with members of the Syrian interim government was a
good opportunity to make contact with the country's new rulers, a German foreign
ministry spokesperson said. "This was the first good opportunity to get in touch
with HTS and the de facto guardians in Damascus," the spokesperson said,
referring to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist group left in charge
following the ouster of president Bashar al-Assad, Reuters reported. Tuesday's
talks in Damascus focused on stabilizing Syria and looked at ways to resume
Germany's diplomatic presence there, according to the spokesperson.
Syria not a
threat to world, rebel leader Ahmed al-Sharaa tells BBC
Jeremy Bowen/International Editor, BBC News
In an interview with the BBC in Damascus, he called for sanctions on Syria to be
lifted.
Sharaa led the lightning offensive that toppled Bashar al-Assad's regime less
than two weeks ago. He is the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the
dominant group in the rebel alliance, and was previously known by his wartime
pseudonym of Abu Mohammed al-Jolani.
He said HTS should be de-listed as a terrorist organisation. It is designated as
one by the UN, US, EU and UK, among many others, as it started as a splinter
group of al-Qaeda, which it broke away from in 2016.
Sharaa said HTS was not a terrorist group. They did not target civilians or
civilian areas, he said. In fact, they considered themselves to be victim of the
crimes of the Assad regime. The victims, he said, should not be treated the same
way as the oppressors.
He denied that he wanted to turn Syria into a version of Afghanistan. Sharaa
said the countries were very different, with different traditions. Afghanistan
was a tribal society. In Syria, he said, there was a different mindset. He said
he believed in education for women. Sharaa was relaxed throughout the interview,
wearing civilian clothes, and tried to offer reassurance to all those who
believe his group has not broken with its extremist past. Many Syrians do not
believe him. The actions of Syria's new rulers in the next few months will
indicate the kind of country they want Syria to be - and the way they want to
rule it.
UN's Syria Envoy Calls for 'Free And Fair Elections' after Transition
Asharq Al Awsat/December 18/2024
United Nations special envoy Geir Pedersen called Wednesday for "free and fair
elections" in Syria and urged humanitarian assistance to the war-torn country
after Bashar al-Assad's ouster this month. Addressing reporters in Damascus,
Pedersen said "there is a lot of hope that we can now see the beginning of a new
Syria", which he expressed hope would also include a "political solution" in the
Kurdish-held northeast. The UN envoy called for "a new Syria that, in line with
Security Council Resolution 2254, will adopt a new constitution... and that we
will have free and fair elections when that time comes, after a transitional
period."Resolution 2254, adopted in 2015 at the height of the civil war, set out
a roadmap for a political settlement in Syria, according to AFP. After
opposition factions captured Damascus on December 8 and toppled Assad's rule,
Pedersen expressed his hope the Syrians can rebuild their country and that "the
process to end sanctions" imposed under the former government could begin. "We
need immediate humanitarian assistance, but we also need to make sure that Syria
can be rebuilt, that we can see economic recovery," he said. Pedersen noted that
"one of the biggest challenges is the situation in the northeast", amid fears of
a major escalation between the US-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
and Türkiye-backed armed groups. Türkiye accuses the main component of the SDF,
the People's Protection Units (YPG), of being affiliated with Kurdistan Workers'
Party (PKK) militants at home, whom both Washington and Ankara consider a
"terrorist" group. The United States said on Tuesday it had brokered an
extension to a fragile ceasefire in the flashpoint town of Manbij and was
seeking a broader understanding with Türkiye. "I'm very pleased that the truce
has been renewed and that it seems to be holding, but hopefully we will see a
political solution to that issue," Pedersen said.
UN calls for
‘free and fair’ elections in Syria
AFP/December 18, 2024
DAMASCUS: The UN envoy to Syria called on Wednesday for “free and fair”
elections after the ouster of president Bashar Assad, as he voiced hope for a
political solution for Kurdish-held areas. Assad fled Syria following a
lightning offensive spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), more than 13
years after his crackdown on democracy protests precipitated one of the
deadliest wars of the century. He left behind a country scarred by decades of
torture, disappearances and summary executions, and the collapse of his rule on
December 8 stunned the world and sparked celebrations around Syria and beyond.
Years of civil war have also left the country heavily dependent on aid, deeply
fragmented, and desperate for justice and peace. Addressing reporters in
Damascus, UN special envoy Geir Pedersen said “there is a lot of hope that we
can now see the beginning of a new Syria.”
“A new Syria that... will adopt a new constitution... and that we will have free
and fair elections when that time comes, after a transitional period,” he said.
Calling for immediate humanitarian assistance, he also said he hoped to see an
end to international sanctions levied against Syria over Assad’s abuses.
Pedersen said a key challenge was the situation in Kurdish-held areas in Syria’s
northeast, amid fears of a major escalation between the US-backed, Kurdish-led
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkiye-backed groups. Turkiye accuses the
main component of the SDF, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), of being
affiliated with Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militants at home, whom both
Washington and Ankara consider a “terrorist” group. The United States said
Tuesday it had brokered an extension to a fragile ceasefire in the flashpoint
town of Manbij and was seeking a broader understanding with Turkiye. “I’m very
pleased that the truce has been renewed and that it seems to be holding, but
hopefully we will see a political solution to that issue,” Pedersen said. Rooted
in Syria’s branch of Al-Qaeda and proscribed as a terrorist organization by
several Western governments, HTS has sought to moderate its rhetoric by assuring
protection for the country’s many religious and ethnic minorities. It has
appointed a transitional leadership that will run the country until March 1.HTS
military chief Murhaf Abu Qasra said Kurdish-held areas would be integrated
under the country’s new leadership, adding that the group rejects
federalism.“Syria will not be divided,” he told AFP, adding that “the Kurdish
people are one of the components of the Syrian people.”He said HTS would be
“among the first” factions to dissolve its armed wing and integrate into the
armed forces, after the leader of the group ordered the disbanding of militant
organizations. “All military units must be integrated into this institution,”
Abu Qasra said. HTS has also vowed justice for the crimes committed under
Assad’s rule, including the disappearance of tens of thousands of people into
the complex web of detention centers and prisons that was used for decades to
silence dissent.“We want to know where our children are, our brothers,” said
55-year-old Ziad Alaywi, standing by a ditch near the town of Najha, southeast
of Damascus. It is one of the locations where Syrians believe the bodies of
prisoners tortured to death were buried — acts that international organizations
say could constitute crimes against humanity. “Were they killed? Are they buried
here?” he asked. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war
monitor, more than 100,000 people died or were killed in custody from 2011.
How America's ally in
Syria may have downed a $30 million Reaper drone
Paul Iddon/Business Insider/December 18, 2024
How the Iranian-backed Houthi militia compares to the US-led task force in the
Red SeaScroll back up to restore default view.
The Syrian Democratic Forces, a US partner in Syria, downed an MQ-9 Reaper
drone. The incident shows the SDF has acquired air defenses of some sort.
It's very possible that the SDF downed a low-flying Reaper with a shoulder-fired
missile. America's ally in Syria accidentally shot down an advanced US drone,
suggesting these Kurdish-led forces have acquired some kind of air defenses.
A $30 million MQ-9 Reaper drone wasn't the only victim. A day later, the Syrian
Democratic Forces — who partnered with the US to fight the Islamic State in
Syria a decade ago — purposely shot down a Turkish drone.
A US official confirmed to Defense News that the SDF misidentified the MQ-9 as a
threat on December 9 and shot it down, without specifying what kind of weapon
was used; the SDF hasn't publicly acknowledged the incident. However, the SDF
did release footage purportedly showing its forces shooting down Turkey's
Aksungur drone.
"The SDF would need more capable air defense systems than older MANPADs
(man-portable air defense system) like the Strela-2 to shoot down an MQ-9 Reaper
unless the drone was flying far below its typical operating ceiling, possibly
due to mission requirements or technical issues," Freddy Khoueiry, a global
security analyst for the Middle East and North Africa at the risk intelligence
company RANE, told Business Insider.
A Reaper drone has a 66-foot wingspan and can fly up to 50,000 feet in altitude,
beyond the range of shoulder-fired Strela-2 missiles. The remotely piloted
aircraft frequently carry Hellfire ground-attack missiles.
"A SHORAD (short-range air defense) or medium-range radar-guided SAM
(surface-to-air missile) system would be required to effectively engage a Reaper
drone operating at its standard altitude," Khoueiry said.
It is more likely that the SDF has shoulder-fired missiles due to their
proliferation, which also have the benefit of being harder to spot than
truck-mounted missile launchers. If the MQ-9 was downed by a MANPAD, it suggests
it was flying very low, Khoueiry said.
The Aksungur is a much larger and more advanced drone than Turkey's widely
exported Bayraktar TB2, but it is not in the same league as the American MQ-9.
"Aksungur drones are capable, 'middle-class drones' that are typically used for
intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, although increasingly modified
to carry weapons," Nicholas Heras, senior director of strategy and innovation at
the New Lines Institute, told BI. Syrian soldiers abandoned their bases and
weapons stockpiles during the dramatic fall of President Bashar al-Assad's
regime in early December. Israel has already moved in and bombed large
quantities of them. Turkey has also moved to prevent the SDF from capturing
weapons. Turkish intelligence destroyed 12 trucks with missiles and other heavy
weapons in the northeastern Kurdish city of Qamishli, and Turkish drones
targeted abandoned tanks, armored vehicles, and rocket launchers strewn across
northeast Syria. "It is unlikely that the SDF captured and were able to quickly
operationalize Syrian regime air defenses within the past week," RANE's Khoueiry
said. "Furthermore, Israeli strikes have significantly degraded such systems
across Syrian territory, making it even more difficult for a US-backed militia
to acquire and effectively operate them."
Turkish media reported earlier this year that US troops in northeast Syria were
training the SDF how to use the AN/TWQ-1 Avenger short-range air defense system,
which fires Stinger missiles. However, sources in Syria cited by the UK-based
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said only US troops operate the
Avengers, which protect their bases against Iran-backed militia drone attacks.
"The challenge for the SDF to use systems such as the SA-2s (Soviet-made S-75s)
or Avengers is that these anti-air systems require a logistical network to
operate that is cumbersome for a non-state actor, especially if that non-state
actor doesn't have accompanying anti-air capabilities to protect those systems,"
Heras said.
Ceng Sagnic, chief of analysis of the geopolitical consultancy firm TAM-C
Solutions, believes it is possible the SDF is "independently operating" some air
defenses in Syria.
"However, it should be noted that Kurdish groups have long had access to
short-range air defense missiles, particularly those acquired from the black
market and not NATO standard," Sagnic told BI. "There is also a possibility that
an operator of one of these systems got lucky that day."
"In any case, the incident demonstrates the readiness of Kurdish groups in Syria
to respond to drone operations, especially those conducted by Turkey," Sagnic
said.
The Kurdistan Workers Party, commonly known by its PKK acronym, had Strela-2
missiles as far back as the 1990s and shot down two Turkish helicopters over
northern Iraq in 1997.
The Middle East Eye news outlet reported earlier this year that Iran had
transferred air-breathing anti-drone loitering missiles to the PKK. One such
munition purportedly brought down an Aksungur over Iraqi Kurdistan in May.
Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen have used the
Iranian-made 358 missile to shoot down Israeli and American drones, including a
number of MQ-9s.
It's unclear if the SDF — whose main Kurdish component Turkey charges with
inextricable PKK links — acquired such a system.
"The claim that Iran supplies the PKK (and, by extension, the SDF) with a
significant number of anti-drone missiles is highly questionable," Sagnic said.
"Only a consistent pattern of successful anti-drone strikes by the SDF in the
near future could indicate enhanced capabilities by the Kurdish group, and a
single drone interception is not sufficient proof.""However, there have been at
least two reported interceptions of Turkish drones over northern Iraq in recent
months, suggesting that Kurdish groups are adapting to the so-called drone wars,
though their continued success remains uncertain."Paul Iddon is a freelance
journalist and columnist who writes about Middle East developments, military
affairs, politics, and history. His articles have appeared in a variety of
publications focused on the region.
As part of
hostage deal, Hamas demands release of Israel’s most notorious prisoners
Einav Halab/Ynetnews/December 18/2024
As hostage negotiations gain momentum, reports suggest terror group will demand
exile of convicted mass murderers from Israeli prisons to third countries; here
are the high-profile prisoners likely to be on the list
As negotiations between Israel and Hamas over a potential hostage-prisoner
exchange gain momentum, the Palestinian newspaper Al-Quds reported Wednesday
that discussions are focusing on which Palestinian prisoners will be released in
exchange for Israeli hostages held in Gaza. According to the report,
high-profile prisoners serving life sentences may be deported to Turkey or Iran
under the terms of the deal A few months into the war, Hamas made it clear that
the next hostage-prisoner exchange deal must include three renowned Palestinian
prisoners, only one of whom is affiliated with the terror organization. Hamas’
insistence on adding two prominent non-Hamas figures to the list reflects its
strategic thinking about the post-war period and its relations with Fatah and
other Palestinian factions. Among the names Hamas is expected to present are
prominent figures in Palestinian society who could reshape the Palestinian
Authority, foremost being senior Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti. In a recent West
Bank poll, Barghouti was the leading candidate to succeed Mahmoud Abbas as
chairman of the Palestinian Authority.
Barghouti is serving five consecutive life sentences and an additional 40 years
for his involvement in attacks that killed five Israelis and injured many others
during the Second Intifada. Formerly the secretary-general of Fatah in the West
Bank, he was arrested on April 15, 2002.
Like other Palestinians serving long sentences for terror offenses, Barghouti
remains highly popular among Palestinians. Unlike most prisoners, however, his
status as a political figure makes him even more revered.
The second name Hamas insists on including in the deal is Ahmed Saadat,
secretary-general of the Marxist-Leninist Popular Front for the Liberation of
Palestine (PFLP) and the mastermind behind the 2001 assassination of Israeli
minister Rehavam “Gandhi” Ze’evi.
Israel refused to release Saadat as part of the 2011 prisoner exchange deal that
saw the release of captive IDF soldier Gilad Shalit. Like Marwan Barghouti,
Saadat is considered a significant and popular figure in Palestinian society.
After Ze’evi’s assassination, Saadat fled to the Muqata’a compound in Ramallah.
Then-Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat refused to hand him over, prompting an
Israeli siege on the compound.
Following negotiations involving the United States and the United Kingdom, the
sides reached the "Ramallah Agreement," under which Saadat was imprisoned in
Jericho under the supervision of British and American guards. After Hamas won
the Palestinian legislative elections, Saadat was captured by Israeli forces and
sentenced to 30 years in prison in December 2008. The third high-profile
prisoner is Abdullah Barghouti, a senior Hamas operative and former commander of
the group’s military wing in the West Bank. Barghouti is currently serving an
unprecedented 67 life sentences in Israel for his involvement in multiple deadly
attacks. Hamas was unable to secure his release in the Shalit deal, but the
organization is now adamant that Barghouti must be freed in the next exchange,
along with the other two senior prisoners.
Throughout the war, additional names have emerged that Hamas is expected to
demand in exchange for hostages. Among them is Hassan Salameh, a close associate
of the slain Hamas bombmaker Yahya Ayyash and a senior figure in Hamas’ military
wing.
Salameh has been serving 46 life sentences in Israel since 1997 after being
convicted of orchestrating attacks that killed approximately 100 Israelis. He
was born and raised in Gaza’s Khan Younis refugee camp, a stronghold of senior
Hamas operatives. Another figure on the list is Abbas al-Sayyid, the chief
planner of the 2002 Park Hotel bombing in Netanya. He is serving 35 life
sentences for his role in the attack, which killed 30 Israeli civilians and
injured more than 160 others. Hamas is also expected to push for the release of
Ibrahim Hamed, formerly the second-most important figure in the group’s West
Bank operations after Saleh al-Arouri, who was assassinated in Lebanon earlier
this year. Hamed, a commander of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades during the
Second Intifada, was responsible for planning and organizing dozens of attacks
against Israelis, including high-profile suicide bombings. He was arrested by
Israel in 2006 and is serving multiple life sentences for terrorism and murder.
Meanwhile, reports in Egypt indicate “intense Egyptian-Qatari efforts” to
negotiate a cease-fire in Gaza. However, Hamas has yet to give its approval for
any deal, and no agreement has been finalized. Despite this, progress has been
made, and Israeli officials note a willingness on both sides to move forward.
Gaza mediators
intensify ceasefire efforts, Israeli strikes kill 20 people
Reuters/December 18, 2024
CAIRO: The United States, joined by Arab mediators, sought on Wednesday to
conclude an agreement between Israel and Hamas to halt the 14-month-old war in
the Gaza Strip where medics said Israeli strikes killed at least 20 Palestinians
overnight. A Palestinian official close to the negotiations said on Wednesday
that mediators had narrowed gaps on most of the agreement’s clauses. He said
Israel had introduced conditions which Hamas rejected but would not elaborate.
On Tuesday, sources close to the talks in Cairo, the Egyptian capital, said an
agreement could be signed in coming days on a ceasefire and a release of
hostages held in Gaza in return for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Medics
said an Israeli airstrike killed at least 10 people in a house in the northern
town of Beit Lahiya while six were killed in separate airstrikes in Gaza City,
Nuseirat camp in central areas, and Rafah near the border with Egypt.
In Beit Hanoun in the northern Gaza Strip, medics said four people were killed
in an airstrike on a house. There was no immediate comment from the Israeli
military spokesman. Israeli forces have operated in the towns of Beit Hanoun and
Beit Lahiya as well as the nearby Jabalia camp since October, in a campaign the
military said aimed to prevent Hamas militants from regrouping. ةPalestinians
accuse Israel of carrying out acts of “ethnic cleansing” to depopulate the
northern edge of the enclave to create a buffer zone. Israel denies it. Hamas
does not disclose its casualties, and the Palestinian health ministry does not
distinguish in its daily death toll between combatants and non-combatants. On
Wednesday, the Israeli military said it struck a number of Hamas militants
planning an imminent attack against Israeli forces operating in Jabalia. Later
on Wednesday, Muhammad Saleh, director of Al-Awda Hospital in Jabalia, said
Israeli shelling in the vicinity damaged the facility, wounding seven medics and
one patient inside the hospital. The Israeli military had no immediate comment.
In the Central Gaza camp of Bureij, Palestinian families began leaving some
districts after the army posted new evacuation orders on X and in written and
audio messages to mobile phones of some of the population there, citing new
firing of rockets by Palestinian militants from the area.
CEASEFIRE GAINS MOMENTUM
The US administration, joined by mediators from Egypt and Qatar, has made
intensive efforts in recent days to advance the talks before President Joe Biden
leaves office next month. In Jerusalem, Israeli President Isaac Herzog met Adam
Boehler, US President-elect Donald Trump’s designated envoy for hostage affairs.
Trump has threatened that “all hell is going to break out” if Hamas does not
release its hostages by Jan. 20, the day Trump returns to the White House. CIA
Director William Burns was due in Doha on Wednesday for talks with Qatari Prime
Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani on bridging remaining gaps
between Israel and Hamas, other knowledgeable sources said. The CIA declined to
comment. Israeli negotiators were in Doha on Monday looking to bridge gaps
between Israel and Hamas on a deal Biden outlined in May. There have been
repeated rounds of talks over the past year, all of which have failed, with
Israel insisting on retaining a military presence in Gaza and Hamas refusing to
release hostages until the troops pulled out. The war in Gaza, triggered by a
Hamas-led attack on communities in southern Israel that killed some 1,200 people
and saw more than 250 abducted as hostages, has sent shockwaves across the
Middle East and left Israel isolated internationally. Israel’s campaign has
killed more than 45,000 Palestinians, displaced most of the 2.3 million
population and reduced much of the coastal enclave to ruins.
Saudi-Israeli peace
will only happen if Gaza war ends, sources tell 'Post'
Jerusalem Post/December 18/2024
Normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia can only materialize when the war
in Gaza ends, Saudi officials told Trump's Middle East envoy. Saudi Arabia will
not normalize ties with Israel “unless it ends the war in Gaza,” Saudi officials
have informed associates of US President-elect Donald Trump, a person with
knowledge about the matter told The Jerusalem Post on Tuesday evening. In recent
weeks, Saudi officials, headed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, met people
close to Trump, including Steve Witkoff, Trump’s incoming special envoy to the
Middle East. Normalization between the countries could materialize only after
the war in Gaza ends, the Saudi officials told Witkoff, according to the
informed source.
A pathway toward a Palestinian state
The Saudis are also demanding "some kind" of statement regarding a Palestinian
state, the sources said. The statement does not have to include recognition of a
Palestinian state; it can also be about an Israeli “pathway toward a Palestinian
state,” the source said. A normalization agreement has been reached between
Israel and Saudi Arabia, Haaretz reported earlier on Tuesday.
Hamas: Prisoner deportations to Turkey, Qatar could be included in 'imminent'
deal - report
Jerusalem Post/December 18/2024
Asharq Al-Awsat cited a Hamas official as stating that a deal was "imminent,"
with the main points having already been agreed upon. A hostage deal could be
signed by the end of this week and could include the deportation of senior
Palestinian security prisoners to Qatar and Turkey, various Arab media sites
reported on Wednesday. A report by Saudi news outlet Asharq Al-Awsat cited a
Hamas official as stating that a deal was "imminent," with the main points
having already been agreed upon. According to Asharq Al-Awsat, in the first
stage of the agreement, which is supposed to last some 45-60 days, Hamas would
release some 30 hostages, both alive and deceased, in exchange for Palestinian
prisoners. Saudi outlet Al-Hadath quoted sources saying that Hamas agreed to
release sick, elderly, and female soldiers held hostage by the terror
organization. In addition, IDF troops would withdraw from cities within the Gaza
Strip. However, they would remain in the Philadelphi and Netazrim corridors.
These corridors run parallel to the border with Egypt and cut across central
Gaza, respectively. Palestinian women and children would be allowed to return to
northern Gaza. On Tuesday, officials with knowledge of the negotiations told The
Jerusalem Post that a hostage deal could be achieved within a month, with
significant advances being made.
Hostage deal reportedly 'closer than ever'
This follows a Tuesday Washington Post report, citing a Hamas official, which
claimed the terror group had ceded its demands that the war ends and that
Israeli troops withdraw from the Gaza Strip in the framework of a hostage deal.
"There is a noticeable shift in public opinion,” a Hamas member was quoted as
saying by the publication, adding, “There is now a strong desire to end the war
at any cost.”On Monday, Defense Minister Israel Katz said a hostage deal was
closer than ever. Such a remark was reiterated by a senior Hamas official,
cited in the Saudi news outlet Asharq Al-Awsat. “We are closer than ever to
reaching a prisoner exchange deal and a ceasefire, provided that Netanyahu does
not obstruct the agreement,” he reportedly said. Amichai Stein, Sam Halpern and
Raquel Guertzenstein Frohlich contributed to this report.
German Minister
Says Occupation of Golan Heights Breaches International Law
Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/December 18/2024
The occupation of the Golan Heights is a violation of international law,
Germany's foreign minister said during a speech in the parliament on Wednesday,
after the Israeli government decided at the weekend to double its population on
the occupied strategic plateau. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock also said she
would make clear to Türkiye on a visit on Friday that the rights of Kurds in
northern Syria must be protected. Israel will remain on the strategic Mount
Hermon site on the Syrian border until another arrangement is found, Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday. Israeli troops occupied Mount
Hermon when they moved into a demilitarized zone between Syria and the
Israeli-occupied Golan Heights following the collapse of Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad's government this month. Officials have described the move as a limited
and temporary measure to ensure the security of Israel's borders but have given
no indication of when the troops might be withdrawn and Defense Minister Israel
Katz last week ordered troops to prepare to remain on Mount Hermon over the
winter. Israel's move into the buffer zone created following the 1973
Arab-Israeli war has been criticized as a violation of international agreements
by a number of countries and the United Nations, which have called for the
troops to be withdrawn.
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on December
18-19/2024
Iran’s self-delusion:
Tehran scrambles to fix Syria ties after Assad's fall - analysis
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem
Post/December 18/2024
After majorly interfering in Syria, Iran is now portraying Israel as the
intruder.
Iran is still grappling with the fallout from Bashar al-Assad’s regime collapse
in Syria. It invested heavily in Assad’s rule in Damascus and likely expected it
to continue for many years. However, Assad fell from power in early December.
Now, Iran is scrambling to find a way to initiate ties with the new leadership
in Damascus.
Iran knows that it used Syria for years as a base for attacks on Israel and also
to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah. Tehran has currently shifted its narrative.
“Syria’s future should be determined without foreign interference or
imposition,” it says. The Islamic Republic was one of the major foreign
countries interfering in Syria. However, Iran is shifting its rhetoric to try
and portray Israel as the major interfering country. Iranian state media run
daily articles on how Israel was sending forces to areas along the border.
Tehran is accusing Israel of “occupying” new areas there.
What are the key points Iran is making about Syria?
What are the key points Iran is making about Syria? Iran’s ambassador to the UN,
Amir Saied Iravani, made a statement this week trying to show Iran’s new policy
on Syria. “The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms its unwavering support for
Syria’s unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity,” he said.
Iravani claimed Iran’s future should only be decided by Syrians, “free from
external interference or imposition.” He called for an inclusive Syrian
government and a new constitution for Syria. Iran is also calling for Damascus
to maintain its governing institutions. Tehran expressed concern that the
country could collapse and fragment.
“Lessons from past conflicts underline the importance of institutional
continuity for basic services, the rule of law, and trust-building. The
international community must support Syria’s institutional resilience,
respecting its sovereignty and the will of its people,” it said. This is ironic
since it was Iran’s involvement in Syria that hollowed the country out and
weakened its institutions. The Islamic Republic also said it “condemns Israel’s
continued violations of Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
According to it, “The Israeli-occupying regime has exploited the current
situation in Syria to pursue its political agendas and further destroy Syria’s
infrastructure.”
Notably, Iran did not condemn Turkey for occupying northern Syria. It often
seeks to be a closer partner to Turkey.
In addition, Tehran said that “immediate aid must be prioritized, and unilateral
sanctions on Syria must be lifted. The continuation of these inhumane and
illegal measures is unjustifiable, as they disproportionately harm the most
vulnerable, worsen economic hardships, and violate the fundamental rights of the
Syrian people.”
Lastly, Iran sees Syria as a “pivotal” country in the region. It knows this
because it tried to use Syria as a crossroads for smuggling weapons to Hezbollah
and propping up Iran’s “axis of resistance.”
After creating conflict for Syrians, Iran now says that “the Syrian people
deserve peace, dignity, and the chance to rebuild their nation free from
external interference.”
The Islamic Republic claims it has “consistently played a pivotal and
constructive role in promoting regional peace and security, paying a heavy price
both in material and human costs in the fight against terrorism in Syria and the
wider region.”So, Iran congratulates itself for helping Syria fight ISIS as
well. “These efforts also played a critical role in bringing an end to Daesh’s
[ISIS] control in both Iraq and Syria,” it said.
Now, Iran hopes that Damascus will continue to be a friend of Tehran. Iran is
attempting to highlight their “deep historical and friendly relations.”
It’s not clear if Syria feels the same way.
South Africa: Next Rich Failed State?
Nils A. Haug/Gatestone Institute./December 18, 2024
South Africa... has an active and influential Muslim sector supportive of Hamas
and Palestinian land claims. Coupled to its pathetic intelligence services, and
its lamentable military and police forces, South Africa is ill-equipped to
counter Islamist infiltration from neighboring regions or its growing internal
extremist movements.
Apart from succeeding in overcoming Apartheid, all that the ANC and allies have
put their minds to since, ends in dismal failure. Every state-owned enterprise
is broke and/or dysfunctional.... The same applies to government departments....
As a mineral-rich country... South Africa is a prime target for a hostile
takeover by opportunistic authoritarian state players. Russia, China and Iran
are strongly positioned already...
Of the three, China, with its vast financial and political investments in
Africa, carries the most influence, and this will no doubt increase beyond the
West's capacity to match it as time passes. At this moment, with its primary
focus on the Middle East and Ukraine, the West is unable or unwilling to match
China's multi-faceted influence in the region and thus offers China unbounded
freedom to accelerate pursuit of its interests there.
[T]he West's loss of influence in the region might be greatly regretted for
decades to come.
South Africa is a prime target for a hostile takeover by opportunistic
authoritarian state players. South Africa conducts joint military exercises with
both Russia and China, and is accused of supplying Russia with munitions for its
crusade against Ukraine. Iran and its proxy Hamas are both a cause célèbre among
ANC politicians, with Hamas having permanent representatives in Cape Town.
Pictured: South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Chinese President Xi Jinping
and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia on
October 23, 2024. (Photo by Alexander Zemlianichenko/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)
Although the African National Congress (ANC) remains the dominant political
party in South Africa after the 2024 national elections, its power is
significantly diminished in addition to its reduced parliamentary
representation. After failing to command a majority, the ANC is the largest
faction of South Africa's so-called Government of National Unity – although
there is little unity among its large number of members. To describe the
government as a fragile coalition would be more accurate.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, an ardent critic of Israel, is the
authority behind South Africa's actions condemning Israel's actions in Gaza at
the International Court of Justice in The Hague. Ramaphosa is also a leading
figure in BRICS – a group of nations seeking to bypass America's dominance of
world trade, and global financial and monetary control. As part of South
Africa's realignment from the West towards BRICS, the ANC has adopted Russia and
Iran as replacement benefactors, and has strengthened ties with China.
A November 2024 report by the Institute for the Study of Global Anti-Semitism
and Policy warns South Africans of the "ANC government's dangerous alliances
with Iran, Qatar and Hamas." A press release announcing the report states:
"The report raises concerns about the timing and financing of South Africa's
case against Israel at the ICJ. It highlights how, in early 2024, shortly after
the South African government announced its case against Israel, the ANC
mysteriously managed to stabilize its finances with an influx of money, despite
being on the verge of bankruptcy... this occurred after high-level meetings
between Hamas, Iranian, and Qatari leaders with ANC ministers, both of which
have vested interests in challenging Israel on the global stage...
"South African government plays a critical role in facilitating Iran's entry
into the BRICS group of nations, thereby granting the country enhanced political
legitimacy and access to an influential economic bloc."
South Africa not only geographically abuts the Islamist-threatened country of
Mozambique, but has an active and influential Muslim sector supportive of Hamas
and Palestinian land claims. Coupled to its pathetic intelligence services, and
its lamentable military and police forces, South Africa is ill-equipped to
counter Islamist infiltration from neighboring regions or its growing internal
extremist movements.
Despite its onerous race-based laws, and although a politically and socially
unstable country, South Africa is the wealthiest country in Africa and therefore
its most desirable nation for investment. It remains a highly attractive target
for Russian, Chinese, Iranian and Islamist influence, whether financial,
military, commercial, political or ideological. It has porous borders with six
other African countries, all of which also remain susceptible to both state and
non-state actors staking their interests in southern Africa.
ANC-led South Africa is on the verge of becoming a failed state. This contention
is evident from a litany of factors which makes it vulnerable to social and
political chaos. The escalating breakdown in essential services can be seen from
a few recent press headlines:
"Rupert [South Africa's richest person] sends a warning to South Africa –
especially farmers and automakers" (Nov 29, 2024)
"Critical workers are quitting in South Africa" (Nov 28, 2024)
"VW joins the chorus of warnings for South Africa" (Nov 28, 2024)
"South Africa's water quality crisis" (Nov 28, 2024)
"Government flushes another R14 billion down the drain" (Nov 27, 2024)
"South Africa heading for a cliff, warns Ramokgopa" (Nov 28, 2024)
"84 people murdered every day in South Africa" (Feb 16, 2024)
"Inside the spooky South African shopping mall where most shops are empty" (Dec
2, 2024)
"South Africa is in the world's 'top five most dangerous countries'" (Nov 20,
2023)
"South African municipalities in crisis – one in three councillors don't have a
matric [high school diploma]" (Sep 12, 2024)
"South Africa's rivers of sewage: More than half of SA's treatment works are
failing" (Apr 26, 2021)
"Two Durban beaches closed due to high E. coli levels ahead of festive season"
(Dec 4, 2024)
"South Africa making enemies with the wrong countries" (Dec 6, 2024)
These headlines indicate crises common to a failed state, but the situation is
actually worse. The ANC, with allies from the Communist Party and the powerful
labor unions, are determined to enforce their tightening neo-Marxist strategy on
the populace.
This latest attempt consists of nationalizing private health care by forming a
so-called National Health Insurance. The public health care system has all but
collapsed, while the private health care system is top-class. The ANC's approach
amounts to this: 'Well, we cannot fix the public health service, so we will
appropriate the private sector's health system which works well. We will offer
the poor the same level of health care as hitherto available only to a
privileged few able to afford it.'
The outcome is predicable: the private system will refuse to become incorporated
into this nefarious scheme but, if forced to do so, will simply close down and
create an alternate structure. Highly-trained medical practitioners will
probably leave the country or retire. Private hospitals will become insolvent,
as is the case in public service facilities.
The ANC's proposed Basic Education Laws Amendment Act (BELA) is a highly
controversial attempt by the ANC to authorize the regime's severe intrusion into
private school education. Like everything else there, the public school system
is disastrous. The ANC wishes to control the private school sector, in the mode
of Soviet-style, authoritarian regimes. The official opposition, the Democratic
Alliance party comments that BELA is a "power grab by the government,
effectively centralising control over schools and reducing the autonomy of local
communities and parents."
Apart from succeeding in overcoming Apartheid, all that the ANC and allies have
put their minds to since, ends in dismal failure. Every state-owned enterprise
is broke and/or dysfunctional, including the national airline South African
Airways, the South African Broadcasting Corporation, the arms manufacturer Denel
and the South African Post Office. The same applies to government departments
such as Transnet (which manages ports, rail freight transport and pipelines),
the South African National Defence Force, the South African Police Service,
PetroSA (oil and gas), the Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa, and so
endlessly on.
As a mineral-rich country with a strategic geographical location and easy access
to hinterland African states, South Africa is a prime target for a hostile
takeover by opportunistic authoritarian state players. Russia is strongly
positioned already; it has a long history of supporting African national
liberation movements, especially the ANC, and has frequent interpersonal visits
with ANC politicians. South Africa conducts joint military exercises with both
Russia and China, and is accused of supplying Russia with munitions for its
crusade against Ukraine. Iran and its proxy Hamas are both a cause célèbre among
ANC politicians, with Hamas having permanent representatives in Cape Town.
President Ramaphosa has remained silent about an attempted terrorist bombing of
the Cape Town Jewish community center on December 5 -- despite the condemnation
by many world leaders of the incident. The South African Jewish Board of
Deputies wrote:
"This was an act of antisemitism aimed at the Jewish community, whether intended
to intimidate or to cause physical harm. It was an illegal act that constitutes
a hate crime."
Should Ramaphosa eventually decide to condemn the action, his May statement to
the effect that "Palestine will be free from the River to the Sea," would surely
mitigate the credibility of his belated comments.
The West is "asleep at the wheel" when it comes to Africa generally, and South
Africa in particular. South Africa enjoys the benefits of trade concessions from
the United States under its African Growth and Opportunity Act, but politically,
ideologically, economically and militarily, South Africa stays close to China,
Russia and Iran.
Of the three, China, with its vast financial and political investments in
Africa, carries the most influence, and this will no doubt increase beyond the
West's capacity to match it as time passes. At this moment, with its primary
focus on the Middle East and Ukraine, the West is unable or unwilling to match
China's multi-faceted influence in the region and thus offers China unbounded
freedom to accelerate pursuit of its interests there.
The future for liberal democracy in Africa therefore does not appear favorable,
and the West's loss of influence in the region might be greatly regretted for
decades to come.
Nils A. Haug is an author and columnist. A Lawyer by profession, he is member of
the International Bar Association, the National Association of Scholars, a
faculty member at Intercollegiate Studies Institute, the Academy of Philosophy
and Letters. Retired from law, his particular field of interest is political
theory and ethics interconnected with current events. He holds a Ph.D. in
Apologetical Theology. Dr. Haug is author of 'Politics, Law, and Disorder in the
Garden of Eden – the Quest for Identity'; and 'Enemies of the Innocent – Life,
Truth, and Meaning in a Dark Age.' His work has been published by First Things
Journal, The American Mind, Quadrant, Minding the Campus, Gatestone Institute,
National Association of Scholars, Israel Hayom, The James Wilson Institute
(Anchoring Truths), Document Danmark, Jewish Journal, and others.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
10 dilemmas of a Palestinian state, 10 questions Middle
East policymakers forget to ask - opinion
David Bedein/Jerusalem Post/December 18/2024
David Bedein lists the 10 dilemmas posed by a Palestinian state followed by 10
questions that Middle East policymakers should ask.
The idea of a two-state solution will no doubt be high on the agenda of the new
US administration, following Saudi demands for a Palestinian state as a
condition for an upgrade in Saudi relations with Israel.
Here are 10 dilemmas posed by a Palestinian state which are too often swept
under the rug, followed by 10 questions which Middle East policymakers too often
forget to ask. Encirclement: Would a proposed state of Palestine not swallow up
Jordan, most of whose population is Palestinian, leaving Israel with a hostile
state from the Iraqi border to the Mediterranean Sea, with a corridor across the
Negev between Gaza to Hebron?
Israeli Arabs: Would the Arabs of the Galilee and the Negev not sue to join the
Palestinian Arab state and then demand the fulfillment of UN Resolution 181 – an
Israeli withdrawal to the 1947 borders (evacuation of Nahariya, Acre, Nazareth,
Jaffa, Ashdod, Ashkelon, Kiryat Gat, and Beersheba)?
Terror: Would a new Palestinian Arab entity disband terrorist organizations? We
asked this question before the Oslo process imported the PLO in 1993, which has
never renounced terrorism or violence as a means to liberate all of Palestine
Armament: Why would there be any expectation that a sovereign Palestine be
demilitarized, since all nation states maintain an armed force as an integral
aspect of their new nation?
Refugees: How would Israel deal with expectations of the Arab countries and
UNRWA residents who continue to demand that Israel must absorb descendants of
Arab refugees and thereby displace thousands of Israelis from places like Haifa,
Safed, and Jaffa, and 80 kibbutzim which rest on the property of Arab villages
where Arabs left in 1948?
Air space: Would the Israeli Air Force be forbidden to fly over a new
Palestinian Arab state?
Alliances: What would prevent a Palestinian state from making military deals
with countries still at war with Israel?
Water: Would a sovereign Palestine not carry out pirate drilling, and threaten
the mountain aquifer of Judea and Samaria?
Jewish sovereignty: Would the momentum for a Palestinian Arab state not erase
the momentum of the right of the Jews to the Land of Israel in international
consciousness?
Loss of independence: Would Israel not become a subject to the sponsors of a
Palestinian Arab state – today, known as the Quartet – the US, EU, UN, and
Russia?
The IDF guards the Israel-Gaza border. Not only would a Palestinian state fail
to inhibit or halt Palestinian terrorism, it would render such grievous
wrongdoings increasingly likely and still more injurious, the writer argues.
(credit: TOMER NEUBERG/FLASH90)Enlrage image
The IDF guards the Israel-Gaza border. Not only would a Palestinian state fail
to inhibit or halt Palestinian terrorism, it would render such grievous
wrongdoings increasingly likely and still more injurious, the writer argues.
(credit: TOMER NEUBERG/FLASH90)
All this leads to questions that Middle East policymakers should ask about a
Palestinian state:
Will you ask the Palestinians to clearly recognize the Jewish state of Israel?
Will you demand that the Palestinians finally ratify the Declaration of
Principles for Peace signed at the White House in 1993?
Will you demand that the Palestinians cancel the PLO charter from 1964 that
calls for the extermination of the Jewish state?
Will you demand that the Palestinians cancel their unprecedented law from 2015
which assures a salary for life for anyone who murders a Jew?
Will you demand cancellation of the new PA and UNRWA school curriculum, based on
jihad, martyrdom, and “right of return by force of arms”?
Will you demand the removal of weapons from PA and UNRWA schools?
Will you insist that UNRWA dismiss employees affiliated with Hamas, Islamic
Jihad, or Fatah terror organizations?
Will you introduce UNHCR standards to advance resettlement of fourth- and
fifth-generation refugees from the 1948 war who have spent seven decades
relegated to refugee status? Current UNRWA policy is that any Arab refugee
resettlement would interfere with a purported “right of return” to pre-1948 Arab
localities.
Will you demand an audit of donor funds that emanate from 68 nations for the PA
and UNRWA, with little transparency?
Given the active participation of the Palestine Security Services (PSS) in the
current war, will you demand that the US cease its support of the PSS?■
David Bedein has conducted independent news investigations of the PLO and UNRWA
since 1987. He is the author of UNRWA: Roadblock to Peace and Genesis of the
Palestinian Authority. His research, investigations and films are supported
through US and Canadian tax-deductible private donations.
https://israelbehindthenews.com/donations/
The West is Making a Mistake in Syria, Again
Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper/December 18/2024
The collective West, led by the United States, is mistaken about Syria, again.
The first mistake was their failure to help the Syrians overthrow Bashar al-Assad,
who had been on the brink of falling before Iran and Russia intervened 13 years
ago.
The mistakes of the West, specifically those of the United States, began during
former President Barack Obama's term. He did not enforce the red line he had
himself set, namely the use of chemical weapons against unarmed Syrians.
Assad did use these weapons, and he was not punished for it. At the time,
everyone thought that the superpower would act, but Obama turned a blind eye and
saw the Syrian crisis as one of many that every American president faces.
According to "The New York Times," he said that the Syrian forces were just
farmers, doctors, and teachers who could never become effective fighters at the
time, rebuffing General Petraeus' advice on US support for the rebels. Obama
even framed Assad's crimes following the Syrian revolution as a "civil war."
The United States and the West were wrong to ignore the suffering of the Syrian
people. Besides the Caesar Act, which hindered Assad's rehabilitation without
ensuring prison inspections or the release of detainees, the US did nothing.
Today, the entire world can see the magnitude of the disaster that unfolded as a
result in Syria.
Washington was more concerned with Israel's security than alleviating the
suffering of Syrians after the 2011 revolution. I heard this from several Arab
and foreign officials, and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan affirmed this
notion in his interview broadcast on Al-Hadath last Wednesday.
Minister Fidan says that seven years ago, during a visit to Türkiye to meet
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Joe Biden (vice president at the time) told
Erdogan: "We do not want Assad to go.We know this was Israel's preference and
not his own; Israel did not want Assad gone," Fidan added.
"Yes, Israel may not have been pleased with Assad allowing the Iranian presence
on Syrian territory, but Israel was fine with Assad himself,” he went on.
“Eventually, the US informed us that Israel did not want him to fall.”
Washington's fixation on Israel's security, at the expense of concern for the
mass atrocities in Syria or the geopolitical threats they created, came at a
time when Washington was seeking to finalize its nuclear deal with Tehran, even
at the region's expense.
Today, Washington and the West are repeating the same mistake, again. It is once
again prioritizing Israel's security despite the latter’s ongoing and
unjustified attacks on this new Syria. It is true that the West has set
conditions for the new administration in Syria, justified conditions, but Israel
remains the focus.
Every Western media outlet that interviewed Ahmed Al-Sharaa has emphasized
Israel's security and Syria's position on Israel. The same is true for Western
officials' statements, whose disregard of the Syrian people's desire to heal
their wounds is outrageous. The West demands that Syria accomplish in one week
what Assad had failed to do in 24 years, prioritizing Israel's security,
overlooking Syria’s urgent need for aid, and doing nothing to compel Israel to
end its assault on Syria or force Assad to face justice for his crimes.
Accordingly, I believe that the West is making a mistake in Syria, again.
Israel’s Bashan Arrow operation in Syria continues
David Daoud/FDD's Long War Journal/December 18/ 2024
As the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad was collapsing on December 8,
Israel set in motion a contingency plan that anticipated the situation. In
recent weeks, the military intelligence arm (AMAN) of the Israel Defense Forces
(IDF) conducted a sweeping situational assessment of the domestic situation in
Syria—and the IDF reacted accordingly, though it had not expected Assad’s regime
to fall so quickly.
The operation, Bashan Arrow, saw Israel swiftly move ground troops to occupy the
peaks of Mount Hermon and the demilitarized zone (DMZ) separating the Israeli
and Syrian sides of the Golan Heights. Simultaneously, Israel launched a massive
aerial and naval campaign to strike the former regime’s abandoned assets deeper
in Syria.
In its first comment on Bashan Arrow, the IDF said on Tuesday that it had
completed the “core” of the operation’s mission and destroyed 70–80% of the
military assets belonging to the regime of deposed Syrian dictator Bashar al
Assad. On Wednesday, the IDF said it had destroyed over 90% of Syria’s
surface-to-air missiles (SAM) whose locations had been identified. By Thursday,
the IDF had also destroyed 80% of Syria’s SA-17 SAM systems, 40% of Syria’s
fighter jets, and all of its loitering munitions. Reports also indicate the IDF
destroyed 30 MiG-29 fourth-generation fighter jets (the Soviet counterpart to
the F-15) and 60 MiG-23 third-generation fighters.
The IDF also clarified that it struck several Syrian Arab Air Force (SAAF)
bases, including the T-4 Airbase located in the city of Tiyas in Homs Province.
The Israelis targeted and destroyed two SAAF squadrons: one consisting of SU-22
fighter-bombers, and another comprised of 10 SU-24 tactical bombers.
Israel also hit Ble military airport (also known as Al Dumayr Airbase), located
40 kilometers northeast of Damascus, which the IDF says was used extensively by
both the SAAF and the Iranian Air Force during Syria’s civil war. The IDF said
the base housed three unspecified squadrons that were destroyed, as was a SAM
and rocket-storage site located 1.5 kilometers away.
The IDF also reportedly struck a central weapons production and storage facility
in Homs, which its statement claimed was the “central Syrian Scud facility, and
one of the most important parts of Syria’s military production infrastructure.”
The latest ground prong of Bashan Arrow
The ground aspect of the Israeli incursion continued, with troops seizing the
entire 235 square-kilometer DMZ. Israeli troops occupied border positions
hastily abandoned by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA). For example, IDF 35th Brigade
Paratroopers from the 101st Battalion were reportedly holding Tel Kudna, a
strategic stronghold of the SAA, which was manned by a large number of Syrian
soldiers only days before.
The IDF also deployed forces from Division 210, the 188th Armored Brigade’s 74th
Division, the 474th Golan Regional Brigade, and Egoz special forces units. The
IDF moved combat engineers and heavy equipment into the area and built at least
15 kilometers of obstacles where the separating fence used to be, digging a
ditch and placing boulders “whose purpose is to delay the enemy for at least 40
minutes in case they want to invade Israel,” said Brigadier Gen Yair Peli. Peli,
the commander of Division 210 responsible for the Golan, said the obstacles will
also prevent vehicles from entering.
Peli noted the presence of unidentified militants in the area. While he stated
that “no one […] is threatening our forces” and “there is no threat to our
forces from forces inside Syria,” he also stressed that “this could turn on a
dime, and we’re prepared for such an eventuality.” Peli also couldn’t say how
long the IDF would remi in the DMZ. “Anything between four days and four years
would be correct,” he said, because “we still don’t know where all this is
going.”
Colonel Benny Katah, commander of the 474th Brigade, told reporters in Tel
Kudnah that the IDF was “not here to occupy territory nor to impose military
rule over the civilians—but to ensure the defense of the [Israeli] residents of
the Golan Heights. We learned the lessons of October 7.” He stressed that his
forces were positioned only a “short distance from our communities in the Golan
Heights,” and, therefore, “we deployed to conduct defense with minimal friction,
defend the buffer zone, and prevent [hostile forces] from establishing a
presence there.”
Hezbollah’s pan-Arab Al-Mayadeen outlet continued to report additional, but
unspecified, Israeli ground incursions “toward Damascus” on December 13.
However, these reports seem increasingly dubious. To the extent they may have
been true, it seems that the Israeli incursions beyond the DMZ were limited and
temporary.
More credible reports indicate that Israeli forces moved into the village of Al
Muaalaqah, located on the administrative borders between Quneitra and Daraa, and
cut the road linking the village to the town of Sayda near the Golan Heights. On
December 11, the Syrian Observatory For Human Rights (SOHR) claimed Israeli
forces were operating in the town of Beit Jann in the Damascus countryside and
near the DMZ, where they killed an unidentified armed Syrian individual.
SOHR and Israeli media sources also claimed that Israeli forces from the 7th
Armored Brigade’s 77th “Oz” Battalion had moved into the towns of Hader and
Humaydiyeh and the western portions of the village of Umm Batneh on December
12—where they reportedly destroyed a nearby former SAA position and conducted
clearing operations in the village. Israeli forces also entered the village of
Kouwya in western Daraa Province and met with local leaders. The Israelis
requested an end to an armed presence in the area and the surrender of arms,
just as they did in other locales in areas near the DMZ, the Yarmouk Basin, and
Quneitra Province. Al-Mayadeen claimed the IDF informed the residents of the
town of Maarieh in the Yarmouk Basin, west of Daraa, of its intention to enter
the locale and seize weapons.
On Friday, December 13, reports suggested Israeli tanks temporarily entered and
then withdrew from an abandoned SAA military position in Khan Arnaba,
administratively part of Quneitra Province and located in the Syrian portion of
the Golan Heights. Other reports indicate Israeli troops advanced towards
Samadaniyeh in this area. Days earlier, the IDF notified Samadaniyeh’s residents
to remain in their homes in light of its intent to operate in the area.
On December 16, Israeli forces reportedly destroyed former SAA weapons and
ammunition depots on the outskirts of Baath City, Quneitra Province’s
administrative center, on the Damascus-Quneitra road.
Bashan Arrow’s latest aerial prong
After a brief hiatus on December 11—perhaps to conduct a battle damage
assessment—Israeli airstrikes reportedly continued, with Israel seemingly
determined to destroy the remainder of Assad’s abandoned arsenal. The IDF has
yet to comment on these continued attacks or their targets. However, other
sources, such as SOHRand various media outlets, have cataloged the Israeli
strikes and their alleged targets. A compiled list of these reports follows:
December 8-12, 2024
Reported Israeli airstrikes between December 10-12 and December 8-12 (the latter
strikes not documented in Long War Journal’s previous entry on Bashan Arrow)
include:
Damascus Province:
An airstrike on an unspecified site in Tel Al Shiar.
An airstrike on Mt Qasioun, possibly targeting positions belonging to the SAA’s
Republican Guard.
Latakia Province:
An airstrike on an unspecified target in Latakia Port.
An airstrike on an unspecified target in Dahr al Zawba in Baniyas.
An airstrike on an unspecified target in Dahr Safra in the Tartous countryside
detonated several missiles.
A strike on a radar Site in the village of Bileh, an electronic warfare and
early warning site 7 kilometers north of Tartous.
A strike on an aerial defense site housing a radar and missiles in al Balatah, 4
kilometers north of Tartous.
An airstrike on a radar site in the area of al Radar, 5 kilometers south of
Tartous.
An airstrike on an unspecified site in Burj al Islam.
A strike on a radar in the Latakia countryside.
Quneitra Province:
An airstrike on the 90th Brigade in the Quneitra countryside, in which past
reports indicate Hezbollah and Iranian forces had embedded. The Brigade was
previously reported to possess heavy and light caliber weapons, an R-330Zh
Zhitel electronic warfare jamming communication station, four ZSU-23-4 “Shilka”
lightly armored self-propelled, radar-guided anti-aircraft weapons system (SPAAG),
Shahab missiles, an unspecified number of T-72 main battle tanks, SA-18 Grouse
man-portable infrared homing SAMs, and North Korean missile trucks.
Deir Ezzor Province:
A strike on the Al Talaeh Barracks in the al Joura neighborhood of Deir Ezzor
city.
December 13, 2024
Damascus Province:
An Israeli airstrike on Mezzeh Military Airport in Damascus.
Airstrikes destroyed missile launch pads on the summit of Mount Qasioun,
possibly targeting former positions of the SAA Republican Guard.
Airstrikes on unspecified military sites.
Airstrikes on the 295th Department HQ, south of Damascus along Highway 110
leading to Suwayda. The 295th Department, reportedly comprised of 2,322
personnel, was Syrian State Security’s “counterterrorism” branch. It was headed
by Brigadier General Izzam Istanbouli. Previous strikes on the 295th Department
had targeted arms caches belonging to embedded Iranian forces and destined for
Hezbollah.
Strikes on the Electronic Warfare Administration’s 1st Regiment.
Strikes on the Fuel Administration near Najha in the Damascus countryside.
An airstrike on SAA warehouses in the Qalamoun Mountains.
Airstrikes on SAA military sites and warehouses in the areas of Nasiriyah and
Jeyrud.
Homs Province:
An airstrike on Syrian air defenses in Wadi Hanna on the Syria-Lebanon border.
Latakia Province:
Airstrikes on SAA sites in Tartous and Latakia countryside.
Airstrikes targeted SAA warehouses in the Latakia environs.
Hama Province:
An airstrike on defense laboratories, research centers, and production
facilities in Masyaf in the Hama countryside.
Deir Ezzor Province:
An airstrike in Deir Ezzor city.
Suwayda Province:
A strike on Khalkhaleh Airport in the Suwayda countryside.
Airstrikes on unspecified military sites.
An airstrike on unspecified military sites in Tel Qulayb.
An airstrike on several unspecified military barracks in the vicinity of al Kafr,
along route 109 northwest to Swayda city.
An airstrike on Hursh al Sahwah barracks in the Suwayda countryside.
December 14, 2024
Damascus Province:
SOHR claimed Israel conducted 24 airstrikes on former SAA sites in Damascus
Province.
Airstrikes on SAA bases containing several tunnels dug into the mountainside
housing storage units for, according to SOHR, “large missiles, ammunition,
mortars, projectiles, and other military equipment.” The strikes also hit a
military barracks in the area of Ain Minin, administratively part of Tel in
Damascus’s northwest countryside, 3 kilometers away from Saydnaya. SOHR tallied
a total of 10 sorties that hit the area 35 times.
Airstrikes destroyed a scientific research center and metal casting plant at the
CERS facility in Barzeh in the Damascus countryside.
Strikes on Al Nasriyah Military Airport, 17 kilometers east of al Nabak city in
Damascus’s northern countryside.
Airstrikes reportedly destroyed warehouses containing Scud and ballistic
missiles and modern launchers near Qastal in Al Qalamoun in the Damascus
countryside.
Two airstrikes on the Radar Battalion in al Rheiba in the Damascus countryside.
Quneitra Province:
An airstrike on an unspecified location near the Golan Heights.
Aleppo Province:
A second airstrike on a CERS facility and a defense production facility in Al
Sferah in Aleppo’s southern countryside.
Hama Province:
Airstrike on a CERS facility in Masyaf.
December 15, 2024
SOHR claims Israel carried out 33 airstrikes on Saturday night, hitting 75
different targets:
Homs Province:
Israel reportedly hit warehouses belonging to the SAA 3rd Corps’ 18th Armored
Division in Homs’s eastern countryside.
Damascus Province:
Seven new airstrikes on the 55th Brigade near the village of Hala in the area of
Qalamoun aimed to destroy missile warehouses built into the mountain.
Hama Province:
Strikes on aerial defenses located on the southwestern side of Hama Airport.
Strikes on the 47th Brigade south of Hama.
Daraa Province:
Strikes on arms caches in Mahajeh in Daraa’s northern countryside.
Suwayda:
Two airstrikes on the Fifth Warehouse near the town of al Kafr in Suwayda’s
countryside.
Deir Ezzor Province:
An airstrike on Deir Ezzor Military airport.
December 16, 2024
Latakia Province: Strikes reportedly targeted:
The 23rd Aerial Defense Brigade and its HQ near Harisoun.
The Isqabla Battalion in Isqabla.
An unspecified position in Dahr al Balloutiyah.
An unspecified position in Al Kharab.
An unspecified position in Marsahin.
Two positions near Dreikish.
Surface-to-surface missile warehouses and aerial defense positions near Malka.
Positions north of the Akkar Valley.
Missile bases in the 107th Barracks in Zama in the Tartous countryside.
Weapons warehouses in the Tartous countryside, which reportedly led to a massive
explosion that measured as a 3.0 magnitude earthquake on nearby seismic sensors.
Airstrikes on surface-to-surface missile warehouses in Tartous.
Hama Province:
An airstrike on unidentified targets in Misyaf.
Deir Ezzor Province:
Airstrikes on radars in Deir Ezzor Military Airport.
Damascus Province:
An airstrike on SAA weapons depots in the mountains of Dumayr.
A second round of overnight airstrikes, lasting about eight hours, hit SAA bases
containing several tunnels housing storage units for, according to SOHR, “large
missiles, ammunition, mortars, projectiles, and other military equipment” in the
area of Ain Minin.
Israel’s posture
During a December 14 visit to the Golan Heights, IDF Chief of the General Staff
Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi insisted that Israel’s recent moves were
motivated purely by security concerns:
We’ve been here for almost a week, and the central purpose is the security of
the State. We’re here to engage in defense along the entire border on the Golan
Heights—the northern Golan Heights, [Mount] Hermon. We had a country [on the
other side] that was an enemy state, its army collapsed. There’s a threat that
terrorist actors will come here. And we went out preemptively so that terrorist
actors will not entrench themselves—extremist terrorist actors—will not entrench
themselves on the border with us. We’re not getting involved in what is
happening in Syria. We have no intention to administer Syria. We’re getting
involved exclusively with what impacts the security of the citizens of Israel
here in the communities behind us in the Golan Heights.
Meanwhile, Syria’s new de facto leader, Ahmad al Sharaa, better known by his nom
de guerre Abu Mohammad al Jolani, has been sending pacifying signals to the
Israelis. In a recent interview with The Times, Jolani insisted that he and his
Hayat Tahrir al Shammilitia are “committed to the 1974 [Israel-Syria] separation
of forces agreement, and we are prepared to return to the UN,” also stating, “We
do not want any conflict whether with Israel or anyone else.”
Stressing that Israel’s prior justification for striking in Syria—the presence
of Hezbollah and Iranian militias—was now “gone,” Jolani also insisted that “we
will not let Syria be used as a launchpad for attacks. The Syrian people need a
break, and the strikes must end, and Israel has to pull back to its previous
positions.” These sentiments echoed paraphrased comments he made to the
pro-opposition outlet SyriaTV.
Despite these assertions, HTS remains a designated Foreign Terrorist
Organization, and Jolani is a Specially Designated Global Terrorist. Further,
HTS maintains an extended network of allied or collaborative terrorist groups.
**David Daoud is Senior Fellow at at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies
where he focuses on Israel, Hezbollah, and Lebanon affairs.
1900 Quantum Theory for the Future of the 21st Century
Lawrence Kadish/Gatestone Institute/December 18, 2024
This is the month that, in 1900, quantum theory was presented by German
physicist Max Planck in a paper to his scientific peers. Planck may play a role
in directing the future of the 21st Century. A number of respected scientists
believe quantum mechanics can play an important role in determining how best to
create and sustained a controlled fusion reaction.
This is the month that, in 1900, quantum theory was presented by German
physicist Max Planck in a paper to his scientific peers.
Defining it for us lay people remains a challenge but, essentially, his theory
suggests that energy is not continuous and can display itself as if it is
physical matter.
For those who mastered physics, a doctoral thesis could likely be written about
quantum theory and Planck's brilliance in offering his insight on this subject.
For the rest of us, it is a matter of asking: what did the quantum theory spawn,
how does it have a hand in today's technology race among nations, and what does
the future hold when brilliant minds in other countries explore physics for the
purpose of advancing their government's global ambitions?
To further reflect on Planck's work, other scientists who followed him,
including Albert Einstein and Niels Bohr, not only embraced Planck's theory but
created quantum mechanics, which physicists explain is the mathematical
application of the theory. Academics would suggest that this advance led to
Einstein's theory of relativity, which in turn led to the Atomic Age.
And this is where Planck may play a role in directing the future of the 21st
Century.
A number of respected scientists believe quantum mechanics can play an important
role in determining how best to create and sustained a controlled fusion
reaction. If so, there is literally unlimited power available from such
technology, making every other energy source obsolete. And the nation that tames
this source of power will assume a level of global leadership the likes of which
has not been seen since the United States ended World War II with the use of two
atomic bombs.
Central to controlled fusion is a massive installation called a tokamak. It is
essentially a huge thermos with magnetic confinement devices inside to keep the
fusion concentrated in one place under enormous pressure.
It is so promising that the Chinese government has invested what some experts
believe is up to $1.5 billion annually to win the race for unlimited energy. In
the interim, the same experts say the lead the United States once had in this
arena has disappeared.
One telling remark from an observer said that it was not the size of the
investment that startled him, but the speed by which the Chinese are advancing
in this field, building new tokamaks while America's similar research facilities
are aging.
Admittedly, the U.S. is pursuing alternatives, including a focus on how, or
whether, lasers can be used to contain a sustained fusion reaction, but it is
unclear whether it may become a researcher's dead end.
This much is clear. Great nations rise or fall depending on how they create,
leverage and dominate with their advance of technology. It has been true since
the Egyptians first used horse-drawn chariots to defeat their enemies. This
century's dependence on ever larger amounts of electricity – whether it is for
AI and supercomputers, or for powering a city – will strategically position for
global dominance the nation that can extract an unlimited amount of energy "from
a bottle."
*Lawrence Kadish serves on the Board of Governors of Gatestone Institute.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Outside interference in post-Assad Syria is
inevitable
Christopher Phillips/Arab News/December 18, 2024
After the sudden collapse of Bashar Assad’s dictatorship, many people have
understandably urged foreign powers not to meddle in Syria’s affairs. “Syria’s
future must be determined by Syrians, not outside powers,” wrote the Hagop
Kevorkian Center’s Mohamad Bazzi for The Guardian, while International Crisis
Group declared that outside powers “need to avoid destabilizing interference.”
These sentiments are laudable.
Ever since protests erupted against Assad in 2011, outsiders have sought to bend
the ensuing civil war in a favorable direction. And Syria would almost certainly
benefit from the same forces leaving the country alone as it transitions away
from Baathist rule. However, while Syrians should be the ones who determine the
shape of their country, it is unrealistic to expect outside powers to suddenly
cease their interference. Foreign involvement is a reality Syria’s new
government must deal with and manage as best it can.
Syria’s strategic location has long meant it attracted outside meddling. In the
1950s, rivals Egypt and Iraq backed different factions, as did Britain, the US
and USSR. This pattern resurfaced after 2011, when Russia and Iran supported
Assad in the civil war while Turkiye, Qatar and others backed the rebels. The US
sponsored a selection of rebel groups but mostly the Kurdish-dominated Syrian
Democratic Forces to fight Daesh. Meanwhile, Israel, though not backing a
faction, took advantage of the chaos to launch airstrikes on Iran-linked
targets. Nor was it only state governments involved, nonstate actors like Daesh
and the PKK weighed in to further their interests.
As a result, Syrians hoping to rebuild after Assad face a devastated, war-torn
state. But they also face a country that has been deeply penetrated by outside
interests. Some foreign actors are willing to act with little or no regard for
Damascus. Already in the week since Assad’s fall, Turkiye, Israel and the US
have launched military operations on Syrian territory. Turkiye has continued its
attacks on the SDF, which it regards as a terrorist entity, Israel has occupied
more land surrounding the occupied Golan Heights and destroyed Syrian military
assets fearing they will fall into hostile hands, while the US has hit Daesh in
the east.Foreign involvement is a reality Syria’s new government must deal with
and manage as best it can. But alongside a willingness to use their own forces
unilaterally, the years of civil war have seen multiple outsiders develop new
networks across Syrian society. Some are overt, such as the Syrian National
Army, which is sponsored by Turkiye, and the SDF, with its links to the US.
Others are more covert or not currently active. Iran and Russia, for example,
will still have ties with some former Assad loyalists, after years of
collaboration. The Gulf states likewise built relationships with various
oppositionists early in the war that might be reactivated in the future. Daesh,
similarly, retains cells across Syria. As well as having the military tools to
directly infringe on Syrian sovereignty, these networks and relationships give
outsiders further opportunities to interfere. It seems unlikely that the outside
actors that have meddled for years will suddenly discover a benevolent side,
check their involvement and put Syrians’ long-term interests over their
short-term needs. Instead, it will more likely fall on Syria’s new rulers to
carefully navigate a perilous geopolitical situation to ensure that foreign
interference remains peripheral and does not undermine transition efforts. While
there are numerous things Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham and the new government can do to
mitigate the risks, two stand out.
The first is to rapidly develop diplomatic skill and capacity. HTS, when it
ruled Idlib, showed a surprising talent for managing external actors, whether
the UN, Turkiye or aid providers. It has also made positive efforts to reach out
to Turkiye, Arab and European governments since taking Damascus. It will hope to
swiftly upscale this, perhaps drawing in other talents from the diaspora and
former officials to give Syria a stronger voice internationally. Whether Syria’s
new rulers have sufficient skill and foresight to minimize the damage remains to
be seen. Damascus already faces a chorus of outsiders making demands of the new
government, including renouncing terrorism and chemical weapons, protecting
minority and women’s rights and calling elections. It will take considerable
diplomatic skill from Ahmad Al-Sharaa, or whomever ultimately leads the
government, to appease enough of these to win sufficient foreign acceptance, all
the while maximizing Syria’s independence. The second is to minimize the chances
that Syrians become disaffected with the post-Assad government, making them
susceptible to outsiders wanting to use their networks to pursue their
interests. For now, it seems that most Syrians have welcomed the fall of Assad
and are willing to give the transitional government a chance, especially after
HTS made positive noises about tolerance. However, this support could dissipate,
especially if HTS does not go ahead with religious freedom, imposes excessive
personal restrictions on society, refuses to share power and/or fails to deliver
economic recovery. In such circumstances, it is plausible that disaffected
elements become more open to either outside forces nudging them toward a more
disruptive path or seeking out foreign support themselves.It is far from clear
whether Al-Sharaa, HTS and the new transitional government will be able to
manage this. They have achieved a huge amount in a very short time, but
navigating the harsh geopolitical environment post-Assad Syria finds itself in
is a wholly new challenge. In an ideal world, meddling outside actors would
leave Syrians alone to work through their new domestic reality unimpeded. But we
do not live in such a world and Damascus should not be blinded to the realities
it faces. Whether Syria’s new rulers have sufficient skill and foresight to
minimize the damage of inevitable foreign interference remains to be seen.
**Christopher Phillips is professor of international relations at Queen Mary
University of London and author of “Battleground: Ten Conflicts that Explain the
New Middle East.” X: @cjophillips