English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 15/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
Joseph, son of David, do not be afraid to take Mary as your wife, for the
child conceived in her is from the Holy Spirit
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 01/18-25: “Now
the birth of Jesus the Messiah took place in this way. When his mother Mary had
been engaged to Joseph, but before they lived together, she was found to be with
child from the Holy Spirit. Her husband Joseph, being a righteous man and
unwilling to expose her to public disgrace, planned to dismiss her quietly. But
just when he had resolved to do this, an angel of the Lord appeared to him in a
dream and said, ‘Joseph, son of David, do not be afraid to take Mary as your
wife, for the child conceived in her is from the Holy Spirit. She will bear a
son, and you are to name him Jesus, for he will save his people from their
sins.’ All this took place to fulfil what had been spoken by the Lord through
the prophet: ‘Look, the virgin shall conceive and bear a son, and they shall
name him Emmanuel’, which means, ‘God is with us.’ When Joseph awoke from sleep,
he did as the angel of the Lord commanded him; he took her as his wife, but
had no marital relations with her until she had borne a son; and he named him
Jesus.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on December
14-15/2024
Statues of the late tyrant Hafez al-Assad
are destroyed and this is the natural end of every terrorist and satanic
ruler/Elias Bejjani/December 14, 2024
Elias Bejjani/Text & Audio: Naeem Qassem’s Speech – An Insult to Lebanese
Intelligence and Denial of Catastrophic Realities/December 14, 2024
Lebanon's FM emphasizes importance of preserving Syria's territorial integrity
and sovereignty
Low-altitude drone activity reported over Beirut and southern suburbs
Walid Joumblatt congratulates Syrian commander Ahmed Al Sharaa on victory over
Assad regime
Fire at MTV Building Caused by Generator Dysfunction
Hezbollah Weapons Found Stored in Lebanese University Warehouse, LU Reacts
One person killed in Israeli strike on al-Khardali
Hezbollah's Qassem warns new Syria rulers against Israel ties
Hezbollah made even weaker by Assad toppling in Syria
Text of Sheikh Naeem Qassem's Speech: Hezbollah Defeated Israeli Expansionist
Agenda, Syrians’ Right to Choose Their Gov’t Affirmed
Lebanon’s Mikati calls on Syrians to return home
How Can We Really Protect Lebanon?/Rami al-Rayes/Asgarq Al Awsat/December15/2024
US Steps Up Support for the Lebanese Armed Forces Amid Regional/Amal Chmouny/This
is Beirut/December 15/2024
The Caesar Act: Implications for Syria and Lebanon’s Economy After Assad/Antoine
Saadé/This is Beirut/December 15/2024
Statement on the Fall of the Assad Regime in Syria/UMAM D&R/December 14, 2024
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on December
14-15/2024
Palestinian security forces clash with
militants in West Bank
At least 18 killed in Israeli Gaza strikes, Palestinian medics say
Thousands of Israelis protest in Tel Aviv for Gaza hostage deal
Families mourn their loved ones after Israeli strike kills seven in Gaza school
Iran will not impede IAEA access, head of its atomic organization says
Syria’s de facto leader not interested in new conflicts despite Israeli attacks
Rebel leader says Syria too exhausted for conflict with Israel
HTS leader Ahmed Al Sharaa criticizes Israeli actions, emphasizes stability in
Syria
Turkey reopens Damascus embassy after al-Assad’s fall
Top diplomats from US, Arab League and Turkey agree need for 'inclusive' Syria
govt
Here's what to know from Blinken's push for stability in Syria
Saudi FM joins Arab, US diplomats in calling for new, inclusive Syrian state
Syria's silent export: The rise of Captagon as a financial powerhouse
Jordan’s King Abdullah meets with Saudi FM, Arab ministers at Syria meeting
Intel and strategy: Inside Israel's regional plan against Iran
Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on December
14-15/2024
Why Israel captured Syria’s tallest
mountain just hours after Assad fell/Mick Krever, CNN/Sat, December 14, 2024
First Order of Business: Permanently Neutralize Iran's Nuclear Threat, but for
Long-Term Stability Do Not Stop with That/Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone
Institute/December 14, 2024
What Assad’s overthrow revealed about Syrian regime’s Captagon empire/Jonathan
Gornall/Arab News/December 14, 2024
Defeating Hamas has become secondary to annexation of Gaza/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab
News/December 14, 2024
EU broadens its horizons with South America deal/Andrew Hammond/Arab
News/December 14, 2024
Georgia’s shaky path to EU creates options for Middle East/Dr. Diana Galeeva/Arab
News/December 14, 2024
on December
14-15/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/12/138012/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzNFAlJfvPk&t=218s
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on December
14-15/2024
Palestinian security forces clash with
militants in West Bank
Reuters/ December 14, 2024
JENIN, West Bank (Reuters) - At least one person was killed as Palestinian
security forces clashed with Palestinian militants and set up checkpoints on
Saturday in the occupied West Bank city of Jenin, residents and medics said.
Gunshots and explosions could be heard in the city, where friction has risen in
recent days between militant factions and the Western-backed Palestinian
Authority (PA) of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas following raids by the
PA.Residents identified the man who was killed as a militant though none of the
factions immediately confirmed his affiliation. The PA's security branch said in
a statement that its forces were undertaking a security operation to restore law
and order to Jenin's historic refugee camp suburb, a stronghold of Palestinian
militants alienated from the Palestinian leadership.
The Palestinian militant group Hamas, which has been fighting Israeli forces in
Gaza for more than a year, condemned the PA for the Jenin operation and its
allied group Islamic Jihad called for a day of protests. Jenin has also been a
hotbed of conflict between the Palestinian militant groups and the Israeli
military in recent years. Since March 2022, Jenin and outlying areas in the
north of the West Bank have drawn intensified Israeli raids after a spate of
Palestinian street attacks.(Reporting by Ali Swafta; Writing by Maayan Lubell;
Editing by Helen Popper)
At least 18 killed in Israeli Gaza strikes, Palestinian medics
say
Reuters/AFP/December 14, 2024
CAIRO: At least 18 Palestinians were killed in Israeli airstrikes in Gaza on
Saturday, medics said, while the Israeli military said it targeted gunmen
operating from shelters and aid storages. At least 10 people were killed in an
airstrike near the municipality building in Deir Al-Balah in the central Gaza
Strip where people gathered to receive aid, medics said. Casualties were being
carried by foot, on rickshaws and private cars from the site of the attack to
the hospital, medics said. The strike killed the head of the Hamas-run
administrative committee in central Gaza, a Hamas source said.
The Israeli military was looking into the report, a spokesperson said. Earlier,
Israeli aircraft struck militants and weapon caches near an aid warehouse, the
military said, after gunmen had fired rockets into Israel from there. Meanwhile,
the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza said at least 44,930 people have been
killed in more than 14 months of war. The toll includes 55 deaths in the
previous 24 hours, according to the ministry, which said 106,624 people have
been wounded in the Gaza Strip since the war began.A separate strike in Gaza
City on a former shelter housing displaced people targeted Hamas fighters, the
military said. At least seven people were killed in that attack, Palestinian
medics said, including a woman and her baby.It was unclear whether any of the
other people killed were fighters. The military said it had taken precautions to
reduce risk of harm to civilians. A separate strike in Gaza City killed a local
journalist, medics said. The military was looking into the report, a
spokesperson said. The war in Gaza began when the Palestinian militant group
Hamas stormed into Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing 1,200, mostly civilians,
people and taking more than 250 hostages back to Gaza, according to Israeli
authorities.
Israel then launched an air, sea and land offensive that has killed at least
44,000 people, mostly civilians, according to authorities in the Hamas-run Gaza
Strip, displaced nearly the entire population and left much of the enclave in
ruins. A fresh bid by Egypt, Qatar and the United States to reach a truce has
gained momentum in recent weeks. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi on
Saturday discussed with visiting US officials efforts to reach a ceasefire in
Gaza and a hostages-for prisoners deal in the Palestinian enclave, El-Sisi’s
office said.
Thousands of Israelis protest in Tel Aviv for Gaza hostage deal
AFP/December 14, 2024
Thousands of Israelis staged a protest on Saturday to demand that the remaining
hostages still being held in Gaza be released. There has been guarded optimism
in recent days that a ceasefire and hostage release deal for Gaza might finally
be within reach after more than 14 months of war between Israel and Hamas in the
Palestinian enclave. Thousands of Israelis demonstrated Saturday for a deal to
release the remaining hostages still held in Gaza after more than 14 months of
war against Hamas in the Palestinian territory. "We all can agree that we have
failed until now and that we can reach an agreement now," Lior Ashkenazi, a
prominent Israeli actor, told a crowd gathered in the commercial hub of Tel
Aviv. Itzik Horn, whose sons Eitan and Iair are still being held captive in
Gaza, said: "End the war, the time has arrived for action and the time has
arrived to bring everyone home." There has been guarded optimism in recent days
that a ceasefire and hostage release deal for Gaza might finally be within reach
after months of abortive mediation efforts. Palestinian militants abducted 251
hostages during Hamas's October 2023 attack, 96 of whom remain in Gaza,
including 34 the Israeli military says are dead.Qatar, a key mediator in the
negotiations, said last week there was new "momentum" for talks.
Families mourn their loved ones after Israeli strike kills
seven in Gaza school
Reuters/December 14, 2024
STORY: Families in Gaza city mourned their loved ones on Saturday (December 14).
According to the civil emergency service in Gaza, at least seven Palestinians
were killed and 30 wounded after an Israeli strike on a former school. They say
it was sheltering displaced people in Gaza City. A spokesperson for the Israeli
military said it was looking into the report. Earlier on Saturday the Israeli
military said it had targeted Hamas militants who were operating within a school
compound in Gaza City and that it had taken measures to reduce harm to
civilians. According to medics, the dead include a woman and her baby. It was
unclear whether the other fatalities were Hamas fighters. The Palestinian
Islamist group denies embedding its fighters among civilians in Gaza.The war
began when Hamas stormed into Israel on Oct. 7, 2023... Killing 1,200 people and
taking more than 250 hostages back to Gaza, according to Israeli authorities.
Israel then launched an air, sea and land offensive that has killed at least
44,000 people, according to authorities in the Hamas-run Gaza Strip. It has
displaced nearly the entire population and left much of the enclave in ruins.
Iran will not impede IAEA access, head of its atomic organization
says
Reuters/December 14, 2024
TEHRAN: Iran will not impede UN nuclear watchdog’s access and inspection of its
sites, the head of the country’s Atomic Energy Organization said on
Saturday.According to a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
earlier this week, Iran has agreed to tougher monitoring by the agency at its
Fordow site after it greatly accelerated uranium enrichment to close to weapons
grade there. Last week, the IAEA reported that Iran had multiplied the pace of
its enrichment to up to 60 percent purity, close to the 90 percent of
weapons-grade, at Fordow.
“We have not created and will not create any obstacles for the agency’s
inspections and access,” Atomic Energy Organization head Mohammad Eslami was
quoted as saying by Iranian media. “We operate within the framework of
safeguards, and the agency also acts according to regulations— no more, no
less,” he added.
Syria’s de facto leader not interested in new conflicts despite
Israeli attacks
Reuters/December 15, 2024
DAMASCUS: Syria’s de facto leader, Ahmad Al-Sharaa said on Saturday Israel is
using false pretexts to justify its attacks on Syria, but that he is not
interested in engaging in new conflicts as the country focuses on rebuilding
following the end of Bashar Assad’s reign. Sharaa — better known as Abu Mohammed
Al-Golani — leads the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) group that swept Assad from
power last week, ending the family’s five-decade iron-fisted rule. Israel has
since moved into a demilitarised zone inside Syria created after the 1973
Arab-Israeli war, including the Syrian side of the strategic Mount Hermon that
overlooks Damascus, where it took over an abandoned Syrian military post.
Israel, which has said that it does not intend to stay there and calls the
incursion into Syrian territory a limited and temporary measure to ensure border
security, has also carried out hundreds of strikes on Syria’s strategic weapons
stockpiles. Several Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Jordan,
condemned what they called Israel’s seizure of a buffer zone in the Golan
Heights. “Israeli arguments have become weak and no longer justify their recent
violations. The Israelis have clearly crossed the lines of engagement in Syria,
which poses a threat of unwarranted escalation in the region,” Sharaa said in an
interview published on the website of Syria TV, a pro-opposition channel.
“Syria’s war-weary condition, after years of conflict and war, does not allow
for new confrontations. The priority at this stage is reconstruction and
stability, not being drawn into disputes that could lead to further
destruction.” He also said diplomatic solutions were the only way to ensure
security and stability and that “uncalculated military adventures” were not
wanted. On Russia, whose military intervention almost a decade ago helped tip
the balance in Assad’s favor and which gave asylum to the ousted leader earlier
this week, Sharaa said that its relations with Syria should serve common
interests.
“The current stage requires careful management of international relations,” he
added.
Rebel leader says Syria too exhausted for conflict with
Israel
Associated Press/December 14, 2024
The leader of the Islamist-led rebels who seized power in Damascus criticized
Israel on Saturday for its incursion into southern Syria this week but said his
country is too exhausted for a conflict with Israel. Ahmad al-Sharaa in his
first public comments on Israel in the week since Assad's fall said “the
pretexts that Israel uses have ended" for its airstrikes inside Syria in recent
days. Al-Sharaa said “the Israelis have crossed the rules of engagement” in his
interview with Syrian TV on Saturday. About 400 Israeli airstrikes in the past
days have destroyed much of the Syrian army's assets. Al-Sharaa leads Hayat
Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS. The excerpts released from his interview did not address
contact with the United States, which on Saturday said had been in direct
communication with HTS, which it designated a foreign terrorist organization
years ago.
The HTS leader did say the new authorities in Damascus are in contact with
Western embassies, and that authorities have a plan to start reconstruction and
development in Syria. He did not give details. He added that the authorities
have given Russia — a key backer of Assad — an opportunity to reconsider
relations with the Syrian people, and that authorities are not hostile to the
people of Iran, another Assad backer.
HTS leader Ahmed Al Sharaa criticizes Israeli actions, emphasizes
stability in Syria
LBCI/December 14, 2024
The leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Ahmed Al Sharaa, denounced recent
Israeli actions in Syria, describing their justifications as "weak and
unacceptable." According to Sky News Arabia, Al Sharaa stated that Israeli
forces have blatantly crossed engagement lines in Syria, risking unnecessary
escalation in the region. In an interview with Syria TV, Al Sharaa highlighted
the fragile state of Syria after years of war and conflict, emphasizing that
"the current state of exhaustion does not allow for new confrontations." He
called for prioritizing reconstruction and stability over actions that could
lead to further destruction.
Al Sharaa urged the international community to "intervene urgently and assume
its responsibilities regarding the escalation" while stressing the need for
"regional stability and respect for Syrian sovereignty." He maintained that
"diplomatic solutions remain the only viable path to ensuring security and
stability, steering clear of ill-considered military ventures." Addressing
Syria's internal challenges, Al Sharaa declared that "the Syrian revolution has
succeeded, but Syria cannot be governed with a revolutionary mindset." He called
for a transition to governance based on law and institutions, describing the
next phase as one of rebuilding and fostering stability. "We are focused on
addressing Syrians' primary needs. There is now an abundance of food supplies,
which the Assad regime had deliberately deprived Syrians of. We are drafting
plans to resolve pressing issues while finalizing data collection," Al Sharaa
explained. He further accused the Assad regime of orchestrating widespread
destruction in Syria's agricultural, industrial, and banking sectors. "The
regime didn't build a state but a fiefdom, riddled with systemic theft.
Documents proving this will be disclosed soon," he added. Reflecting on the
trajectory of the Syrian conflict, Al Sharaa described the struggle as marked by
factionalism and international intervention. "It was an exceptional situation
with no realistic political solution, leaving us no choice but military action,
despite its complexity," he noted. He accused Russian airstrikes of targeting
civilian infrastructure and expressed concerns about a potential "Gaza-like
scenario" in northern Syria. "We avoided provoking Russia and gave them
opportunities to reassess their relationship with us," he added. Touching on
Iran's involvement, Al Sharaa claimed, "We successfully ended Iranian presence
in Syria. However, we hold no hostility toward the Iranian people."
Turkey reopens Damascus embassy after al-Assad’s fall
LBCI/AFP/December 14, 2024
Turkey on Saturday reopened its embassy in Damascus after a 12-year closure, a
week after opposition forces toppled longtime leader Bashar al-Assad, an AFP
journalist said. The Turkish flag was raised over the diplomatic mission in the
presence of the new chargé d’affaires Burhan Koroglu, the journalist said.
Representatives of the opposition’s transitional government were present at the
ceremony at the embassy in the capital’s Rawda district, which also hosts other
diplomatic missions.
Top diplomats from US, Arab League and Turkey agree need
for 'inclusive' Syria govt
Associated Press/December 14, 2024
Arab, Western and Turkish diplomats agreed in talks in Jordan Saturday on the
need for an "inclusive" government in Syria following the overthrow of Bashar
al-Assad, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said. Blinken told reporters
that the talks would issue a joint statement in which "we agreed that the
transition process should be Syrian-led and Syrian-owned and produce an
inclusive and representative government".The collapse of the Assad family’s more
than half-century of rule has sparked new fears of instability in a region
already shaken by the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and hostilities between Israel
and the Lebanon-based Hezbollah despite a tenuous ceasefire. U.S. Secretary of
State Antony Blinken said American officials have been in direct contact with
the Syrian insurgent group that led the overthrow of Assad’s government, but the
group continues to be designated a foreign terrorist organization by the United
States and others. The insurgent leader in an interview with Syrian TV didn't
mention contact with the U.S. but warned Israel about the hundreds of airstrikes
it has carried out in Syria in the past week.The U.S. is also making a renewed
push for a ceasefire in Gaza, where the war has plunged more than 2 million
Palestinians into a severe humanitarian crisis.
Here's what to know from Blinken's push for stability in Syria
Associated Press/December 14, 2024
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has wrapped up perhaps his last Middle
East as America's top diplomat, with the aim of preventing Syria from spiraling
out of control after the sudden ouster of President Bashar Assad.
Blinken was one of several senior U.S. officials traveling across the region in
the Biden administration's final weeks amid deep uncertainty in Washington and
abroad over how Donald Trump will approach the Mideast when he takes office on
Jan. 20, 2025.
Blinken held meetings Jordan, Turkey and Iraq with the aim of trying to shape
the future of post-Assad Syria by forging consensus among regional partners and
allies whose interests often diverge. "We know that what happens inside of Syria
can have powerful consequences well beyond its borders, from mass displacement
to terrorism," he told reporters Saturday in Aqaba, Jordan. "And we know that we
can't underestimate the challenges of this moment." The primary goal of his 11
previous trips to the region since the Israel-Hamas war began in October 2023
was securing a ceasefire in Gaza that resulted in the release of remaining
hostages.Now, suddenly, that wasn't his priority and was being handled by
President Joe Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, who traveled to
Israel, Egypt and Qatar this week. Blinken said he used his own meetings to
press forward on a ceasefire deal. Biden's team is running out of time to cement
a legacy in the Middle East after drawing widespread criticism that it turned a
blind eye to Israel's military conduct and its treatment of civilians in Gaza.
They did succeed in helping lead a push for a ceasefire between Israel and
Hezbollah in Lebanon that, while tenuous, is holding.
Here are some takeaways from Blinken's trip:
Charting a new course for Syria
While hopes remain for concluding a Gaza ceasefire by the time Biden leaves the
White House, helping shape a new Syria may prove to be lower-hanging fruit.
Blinken left Washington just three days after Assad fled for Russia, a longtime
ally. Blinken said his goal was to convince countries in the Mideast and
elsewhere that they should commit to backing the U.S. view of how Syria should
be run after decades of Assad family rule. To that end, he said he had secured
the backing of the 12 foreign ministers from the Arab League, Turkey and top
officials from the European Union and United Nations who held an emergency
meeting Saturday on Syria in the Jordanian port city of Aqaba. They agreed that
the new Syrian government should respect the rights of minorities and women,
prevent terror groups from taking hold, ensure humanitarian aid reaches people
in need, and secure and destroy any remaining Assad-era chemical weapons.
Blinken has promised that the United States would recognize and support a new
government that met those principles. Seeking stability to deter the Islamic
State group
Syria is riven by partisan and sectarian infighting that led in part to rise of
the Islamic State militant group in the first place. Turkey, Syria's neighbor to
the north, is deeply suspicious of Syrian and Iraqi Kurds. Turkey deems them
terrorists, although some of those Kurds have proved to be key American partners
in the fight to destroy IS. The U.S. helped broker an agreement between the
Turks and one of those Kurdish groups, the Syrian Defense Forces, after Assad's
departure, although it's unclear how long that can last. "We have the urgency of
now," Blinken said Saturday. "The urgency of now is to ensure that the success
that we've had in ending the territorial caliphate of ISIS ... remains a
critical mission," he said, using a different acronym for the group. The SDF
runs detention facilities holding some 10,000 fighters, and Blinken said its
role is key because "this is a moment of instability in which ISIS will seek to
regroup and take advantage of." Just after Assad's downfall, the U.S. struck
about 75 IS targets in the Syrian desert in an effort to prevent the group from
gaining a foothold. The U.S. also has about 900 troops in Syria to battle the
group.
Facing Trump's return to power
There are concerns in the region about how the incoming Trump administration
will handle the Middle East, apart from deepening ties with Israel. Trump has
demanded the immediate release of hostages in Gaza, threatening on social media
that otherwise there would be "HELL TO PAY," and has urged the U.S. not to get
involved in Syria. Nonetheless, current U.S. officials believe the Republican is
unlikely to abandon American military positions in Syria, as he had wanted to do
during his first term. Their belief stems from the fact that Trump frequently
takes credit for vanquishing IS by finishing the liberation of their territory
that began during the Obama administration. The threat of the possible return of
IS would be too great for Trump risk, according to these officials. They say
Iraq, which signed an agreement with the U.S. in September under which the
U.S.-led anti-IS coalition will withdraw next year, is already hinting that
conditions could force a change in that timetable.
On a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal, Sullivan expressed cautious
optimism that conditions were ripe for halting the long-running conflict before
the end of the Biden administration's end. "I wouldn't be here now if I didn't
think this thing was just waiting until after Jan. 20," he said this week.
Sullivan also said there has been good cooperation with the incoming Trump
administration, with widespread agreement between them. Searching for missing
Americans
The Biden administration has made it a priority to find Austin Tice, an American
journalist believed held in Syria for more than a decade. Since Assad's ouster,
the U.S. has redoubled efforts to find Tice and return him home.
Blinken said Saturday that the U.S. has been in direct contact with the rebels
that ousted Assad, including about "the importance of helping find Austin Tice
and bringing him home." Washington's top hostage negotiator, Roger Carstens,
traveled to Lebanon this week in hopes of getting information on Tice.
Meanwhile, U.S. officials said Friday that another American, Travis Timmerman,
was transported by the U.S. military out of Syria, where he had disappeared
seven months ago into Assad's prison system. Timmerman was among the thousands
released this week.
Officials say Timmerman, 29, was flown to Jordan on a U.S. military helicopter
Friday, and it's unclear where he may go next. He was detained after he crossed
into Syria from Lebanon while on a Christian pilgrimage in June.
Saudi FM joins Arab, US diplomats in calling for new,
inclusive Syrian state
Arab News/December 14, 2024
AQABA, Jordan: Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan joined
top diplomats from the US, Turkiye, the European Union and Arab nations in
Jordan on Saturday for talks on Syria following the ousting of President Bashar
Assad earlier this week. Prince Faisal led the Kingdom’s delegation at the
meeting, held under the auspices of the Arab League, which focused on supporting
a Syrian-led transitional political process to address the challenges faced by
the Syrian people. Discussions emphasized restoring Syria's national
institutions, ensuring the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and
supporting the aspirations of its citizens for a secure and dignified life. The
meeting also included prominent officials, such as Prince Musab bin Mohammed Al-Farhan
and Saudi Ambassador to Jordan Nayef Al-Sudairy. A final communique issued on
Saturday after the meeting expressed firm support for the Syrian people and
emphasized the need for a peaceful, inclusive, and Syrian-led political
transition, guided by UN Resolution 2254. This would include forming a
transitional governing body, drafting a new constitution, and conducting
UN-supervised elections, the statement said.The ministers called for a cessation
of military operations, protection of Syrian state institutions, and efforts to
combat terrorism. They stressed the importance of the delivery of humanitarian
aid, enabling the voluntary return of refugees, national reconciliation, and
transitional justice.
The meeting condemned Israeli violations in Syrian territories and reaffirmed
the Golan Heights as occupied Syrian land. The diplomats also pledged to support
Syria’s unity, sovereignty, and reconstruction, while coordinating with Arab and
international partners to secure the Syrian people’s aspirations for a stable
and secure future, the Saudi Press Agency reported. Outgoing US President Joe
Biden’s administration has begun engaging with the victorious militant groups
including Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), which led a lightning assault that ended
in the capture of Damascus on Sunday.
Biden sent Secretary of State Antony Blinken to the region this week to seek
support for principles that Washington hopes will guide Syria’s political
transition, such as respect for minorities. Meanwhile Syria’s northern neighbor
Turkiye has for years supported Syrian opposition forces looking to oust Assad
and is poised to play an influential role in Damascus. Turkish Foreign Minister
Hakan Fidan said on Friday that his country’s embassy in the Syrian capital
would resume work on Saturday, after Turkiye’s intelligence chief visited this
week. Syria’s neighbor Jordan was hosting Saturday’s gathering in Aqaba. Russia
and Iran, who were Assad’s key supporters, were not invited.
Blinken, UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pederson and EU foreign policy chief
Kaja Kallas, Fidan and foreign ministers from Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, Egypt, the
UAE, Bahrain and Qatar met around a circular table at a Jordanian government
guesthouse. There was no Syrian representative at the table. Blinken, meeting
Pederson at his hotel earlier on Saturday, said it was a time of “both
opportunity but also real challenge” for Syria. Turkiye and the United States,
both NATO members, have conflicting interests when it comes to some of the
militants. Turkiye-backed militants in northern Syria have clashed with the
Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The SDF, which controls some of
Syria’s largest oil fields, is the main ally in a US coalition against Daesh
militants. It is spearheaded by YPG militia, a group that Ankara sees as an
extension of Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militants who have fought the Turkish
state for 40 years and who it outlaws. Blinken told Turkish officials during a
visit to Ankara on Thursday and Friday that Daesh must not be able to regroup,
and the SDF must not be distracted from its role of securing camps holding Daesh
fighters, according to a US official with the US delegation. Turkish leaders
agreed, the official said. Fidan told Turkish TV later on Friday that the
elimination of the YPG was Turkiye’s “strategic target” and urged the group’s
commanders to leave Syria.
* With Reuters
Syria's silent export: The rise of Captagon as a financial
powerhouse
LBCI/December 14, 2024
In 1961, the first Captagon pill was manufactured in Germany, initially intended
for medical use to treat conditions like excessive drowsiness and lack of
concentration. However, by the 1980s, Captagon had become popular among drug
users in Germany, particularly when other drugs like cocaine were either scarce
or prohibitively expensive. The first recorded case of Captagon smuggling
occurred in Germany in 1984. Since then, the drug has transitioned from a
legitimate pharmaceutical to an illicit narcotic with a global trade value
estimated at around $10 billion annually. Syria entered the Captagon trade
following the chaos and instability brought on by the civil war in 2011.
According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, the Syrian regime and its
allies, including Hezbollah, have profited immensely from this trade, generating
approximately $2.5 billion annually, making it a primary source of revenue. The
production of a single Captagon pill costs about $1, while the drug is sold for
$14 to $20 on the market. This lucrative margin has cemented Captagon as one of
the most critical financial assets for the Syrian regime. Therefore, the country
has become one of the largest producers and exporters of Captagon worldwide.
According to a report by AFP in 2022, the illicit trade in Captagon has
surpassed Syria's combined legal exports.
Jordan’s King Abdullah meets with Saudi FM, Arab ministers at
Syria meeting
Arab News/December 14, 2024
AQABA: Jordan’s King Abdullah II emphasized the strategic importance of Syria’s
stability for the Arab world and the broader region during a meeting with Saudi
Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan in Aqaba on Saturday, the Saudi Press
Agency reported. The gathering also included members of the Arab Ministerial
Contact Committee on Syria, foreign ministers from several countries, and
representatives from international organizations. King Abdullah underlined the
critical need for a unified and effective international stance to safeguard
Syria’s security, protect its citizens, and uphold its sovereignty. He
highlighted the importance of preserving Syria’s territorial integrity against
any external interference or aggression while reinforcing its national
institutions. The meeting was held on the sidelines of the main Aqaba meetings
on Syria, which also included top diplomats from the US and Turkiye Antony
Blinken and Hakan Fidan.
Intel and strategy: Inside Israel's regional plan against Iran
LBCI/December 14, 2024
After declaring the near-total destruction of Syria's air defense systems and
military capabilities, Israel has shifted its attention to confronting Iran's
nuclear ambitions. In a high-level security assessment following talks with U.S.
National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Israeli officials emphasized that all
options remain on the table to prevent Tehran from advancing its uranium
enrichment program and acquiring nuclear weapons. The issue has been a
cornerstone of U.S.-Israeli strategic coordination. Israel's confidence in
targeting Iran stems from what it describes as the weakening of Tehran's
regional allies. Strikes on Hamas, Hezbollah, and Syria have left Iran isolated,
according to Israeli military reports. Intelligence images and data cited in
these reports claim that Russia has vacated its military bases in Syria, further
undermining Iran's foothold in the region. However, some have warned that a
strike on Iran could jeopardize the potential for a broader agreement on its
nuclear program, which might serve the interests of all parties involved.
Israeli analysts suggest that Iran's current military weakness may lead it to
pursue a temporary de-escalation while attempting to rebuild its regional
alliances and resume clandestine nuclear activities. While preparing for a
potential strike on Iran, Israel is also addressing emerging security concerns
on its eastern front with Jordan. An Israeli intelligence report claims that
Iran is working to expand its presence near the Jordanian border, with evidence
of drone activity and the establishment of residential sites allegedly tied to
weapons smuggling operations. Israeli intelligence agencies are particularly
concerned about Iran's efforts to bolster its influence in the West Bank and
Jerusalem, raising fears of a potential escalation in those areas.
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on December
14-15/2024
Why Israel captured Syria’s
tallest mountain just hours after Assad fell
Mick Krever, CNN/Sat, December 14, 2024
Israel wasted no time after Bashar al-Assad’s fall to bomb all the Syrian
military assets it wanted to keep out of the rebels’ hands – striking nearly 500
targets, destroying the navy, and taking out, it claims, 90% of Syria’s known
surface-to-air missiles.
But it is Israel’s capture of Syria’s highest peak, the Mount Hermon summit,
that may prove among the most lasting prizes – though officials have insisted
that its occupation is temporary. “This is the highest
place in the region, looking upon Lebanon, upon Syria, Israel,” said Efraim
Inbar, director of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS).
“It’s strategically extremely important. There is no substitute for mountains.”
The summit of Mount Hermon lies in Syria, in a buffer zone that separated
Israeli and Syrian forces for fifty years until last weekend, when Israeli
troops took control of it. Until Sunday, the summit was demilitarized and
patrolled by UN peacekeepers – their highest permanent position in the world.
Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, on Friday ordered the military to
prepare for the harsh conditions of winter deployment. “Due to developments in
Syria, it is of immense security importance to maintain our control over the
summit of Mount Hermon,” he said in a statement.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has advanced beyond the summit, as far as
Beqaasem, about 25 kilometers (15.5 miles) from the Syrian capital, according to
Voice of the Capital, a Syrian activist group. CNN could not independently
confirm that claim. An Israeli military spokesperson this week denied that
forces were “advancing toward” Damascus. Israel
captured the Golan Heights, a strategic plateau in southwestern Syria that abuts
Mount Hermon, in the 1967 war and has occupied it since. Syria attempted to
retake the territory in a surprise attack in 1973, but failed, and Israel
annexed it in 1981. The occupation is illegal under international law, but the
United States recognized Israel’s claim on the Golan during the Trump
administration. Israel has for decades held some lower
slopes of Mount Hermon, and even operates a ski resort there, but the peak
remained in Syria proper. “We have no intention to
intervene in Syria’s internal affairs,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said
in a video days after Israel bombed hundreds of Syrian targets and seized the
demilitarized buffer zone. “But we certainly intend to do everything necessary
to take care of our security.”Mount Hermon’s summit is a tremendous asset under
Israel’s control. At 9,232 feet (2,814 meters), it is higher than any point in
Syria or Israel, and second to only one peak in Lebanon.
“People sometimes say in the age of missiles, land is not important –
it’s simply untrue,” Inbar said. In an academic paper
published in 2011, he wrote of the many advantages presented by Mount Hermon.
“It enables the use of electronic surveillance deep into Syrian
territory, giving Israel early-warning capacity in case of an impending attack,”
he wrote. Advanced technological alternatives like airborne surveillance, he
argued, was simply not comparable. “In contrast to an installation on a
mountain, these cannot carry heavy equipment such as big antennas, and they can
be shot down by anti-air missiles.”
The peak is just over 35 kilometers (about 22 miles) from Damascus, which means
that control of its Syrian foothills – also now in IDF hands – put the Syrian
capital within range for artillery cannons. The
Israeli prime minister has said his “hand is extended” to the new government in
Syria. But in the post-October 7 world, he and other national security
heavyweights have made clear they are not going to take any chances.
“Mostly, it’s a comfort for us,” retired Brigadier General Israel Ziv
said of Israel’s operations in Syria. “We have learned what happened in other
countries when you have a terror organization that captures military
equipment.”Netanyahu has also insisted that the occupation is temporary. “Israel
will not permit jihadi groups to fill that vacuum and threaten Israeli
communities on the Golan Heights with October 7 style attacks,” he said. His
criteria for withdrawing, he said, was a Syrian force “that is committed to the
1974 agreement can be established and security on our border can be
guaranteed.”It is unclear when that may be achieved.Whether the military
withdraws “is a political decision,” Inbar said. “The military would love to
stay there.”
**Mike Schwartz and Tim Lister contributed to this report.
First Order of Business: Permanently Neutralize Iran's
Nuclear Threat, but for Long-Term Stability Do Not Stop with That
Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/December 14, 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/12/137987/
The regime's primary goal is, first, to stay in power; second, to acquire
nuclear weapons. No amount of diplomatic engagement will deter it from pursuing
these objectives. Any agreement would merely buy more time for Iran to refine
its nuclear technologies while easing international pressure. The regime's
strategy is to outlast all sanctions and inspections, while continuing its
covert nuclear activities, repressing it citizens, and planning its future
expansion.The international community would do the world a favor by stopping
Iran from reaching both goals. If not, there will be no chance of durable
stability in the Middle East. It is as simple as that.
The idea of negotiating a "deal" to limit, control or "verify" Iran's nuclear
activities has proven to be both ineffective and dangerous.... Iran has
repeatedly violated international agreements and deceived global watchdogs. It
seems clear that any new deal would likely meet the same fate. Trusting such a
regime to honor its commitments is like trusting the cat to guard the cream.
Only by neutralizing the entire Iranian threat will the world be able to work
toward a future of stability, prosperity and peace.
Iran is reportedly close to being a nuclear-armed state. Such a development
would have catastrophic consequences for the region as well as for global
stability. Acquiring nuclear weapons would embolden Iran's regime, re-strengthen
its proxies, and enable it to resume escalating its terror campaigns across the
region. Once Iran crosses the nuclear threshold, it
will become virtually impossible to contain or neutralize its aggression –
presumably the reason the regime is so eager to have nuclear weapons in the
first place. The risk of retaliation by nuclear strikes would deter even the
most powerful nations from military intervention. An Iran with nuclear weapons
would fundamentally alter the balance of power in the Middle East and beyond.
This scenario underscores the urgent need to dismantle Iran's nuclear
program as soon as possible, but it would be a shame to stop there. Tehran's
leadership has been transparent in its ambition to use an "Islam bomb" to
"export the revolution;" even its own officials have openly acknowledged this
goal. Allowing Iran to succeed also encourage other rogue states to develop
nuclear weapons.
The idea of negotiating a "deal" to limit, control or "verify" Iran's nuclear
activities has proven to be both ineffective and dangerous. History has shown
that the Iranian regime is not a trustworthy partner in diplomacy. Past
agreements, including the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), were
riddled with loopholes that Tehran exploited to continue advancing its nuclear
weapons ambitions under the guise of compliance. Iran has repeatedly violated
international agreements and deceived global watchdogs. It seems clear that any
new deal would likely meet the same fate. Trusting such a regime to honor its
commitments is like trusting the cat to guard the cream.
The regime's primary goal is, first, to stay in power; second, to acquire
nuclear weapons. No amount of diplomatic engagement will deter it from pursuing
these objectives. Any agreement would merely buy more time for Iran to refine
its nuclear technologies while easing international pressure. The regime's
strategy is to outlast all sanctions and inspections, while continuing its
covert nuclear activities, repressing it citizens, and planning its future
expansion. The international community would do the
world a favor by stopping Iran from reaching both goals. If not, there will be
no chance of durable stability in the Middle East. It is as simple as that.
A decisive and uncompromising approach is therefore necessary to
dismantle both Iran's nuclear program entirely and its Islamist regime.
Sanctioning Iran's financial resources once again can significantly hinder
Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons and fund its proxies and militias.
Curbing Iran could include cutting off its access to global financial systems,
authorizing secondary sanctions on countries that decide doing business with
Iran is worth the downside, freezing assets, and imposing penalties on entities
that facilitate Iran's nuclear activities. But those requirements alone will not
be enough to ensure a durable peace in the region. For that important goal, the
US and the West will need to compel Iran's rulers to understand that their lives
will be more enjoyable elsewhere.
Failing to act decisively against Iran's nuclear program can have only
catastrophic consequences. The world, unfortunately, cannot allow the Iranian
regime to achieve either its nuclear or theocratic aims. It is not just a matter
of regional security, it is a global imperative. Only by neutralizing the entire
Iranian threat will the world be able to work toward a future of stability,
prosperity and peace.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh, is a scholar, strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated
analyst, political scientist, and board member of Harvard International Review.
He has authored several books on the US Foreign Policy and Islam. He can be
reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
Follow Majid Rafizadeh on X (formerly Twitter)
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21207/neutralize-iran-nuclear-threat
What Assad’s overthrow revealed about Syrian
regime’s Captagon empire
Jonathan Gornall/Arab News/December 14, 2024
LONDON: For more than a decade, the illegal drug Captagon has been mass produced
in Syria, in laboratories either run by or with the blessing of a regime hard
hit by Western sanctions and desperate to generate revenue.
The scale of the trade, targeted mainly at young people in the Gulf states,
particularly Saudi Arabia, was revealed last year in an Arab News expose
produced in collaboration with the New Lines Institute. A cheaply made form of
amphetamine, Captagon has been flooding into countries of the Middle East for
more than a decade, causing social harm on an unprecedented scale. Embossed with
its distinctive twin half moons logo, which gives the drug its Arabic street
name, “Abu Hilalain,” or Father of the Two Crescents, the pills are easy to
make, readily available, and relatively cheap to buy. On Dec. 4, the New Lines
Institute in Washington launched a unique interactive online tool designed to
help researchers and global law enforcement agencies research, track, and
understand the scale and complexities of the trade.
Just days after the launch of the project, the Syrian regime, which had been
locked in a grinding civil war with armed opposition groups for almost 14 years,
suddenly collapsed. In the early hours of Sunday, Dec. 8, President Bashar Assad
and his family fled to Moscow, where their Russian allies granted them asylum.
Since then, multiple Captagon laboratories have been overrun in areas
formerly controlled by the Syrian government, with raw materials, machinery,
packaging and countless thousands of pills found abandoned in haste.
But no one should think for one moment that the collapse of the Assad regime
means the end of the curse of Captagon, according to Caroline Rose, director of
the Strategic Blind Spots Portfolio at the New Lines Institute. “We are going to
see a shift in the trade now that Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham and a lot of communities
in Syria have started to disassemble Captagon production sites and incinerate
Captagon pills,” she told Arab News. In his victory speech at the Umayyad Mosque
in Damascus on Monday, HTS leader Abu Mohammed Al-Golani made a specific point
of condemning the drug and Assad’s part in its production.
The ousted president, he said, had caused the country to become “a major
Captagon factory in the world, and today Syria is being cleansed of it.”
It is “very clear that if you are a Captagon manufacturer who did not flee with
the regime, you are now in trouble, Rose said.
“But I think what we’re going to see now is overspill, what people often call
the ‘balloon effect.’ Production is being squeezed inside Syria, but we are
going to see the emergence of larger-scale Captagon production facilities in a
few countries where alarm bells have already been ringing.”Authorities across
the region have frequently reported seizures of the pills, intercepted at ports,
airports, and border crossings, in an ongoing battle of wits with smugglers
resorting to increasingly ingenious methods.
The New Lines Institute’s Captagon Trade Project, the product of years of
research, is the first time that information about all reported global seizures
of the drug, showing the sheer scale of the trade, can be accessed in one place.
And clues to the changing profile of the Captagon trade in the months leading up
the regime’s collapse can be found in the project’s data, which reveal that
production facilities have been popping up in countries including Iraq, Lebanon
and Turkiye.
In Lebanon, the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, under intense pressure from
Israel, “has an incentive to build up its own financial reserves, and Captagon
is an easy way to do that,” Rose said. A couple of Captagon labs were found
earlier this year in Turkiye, a country where “we had not seen labs in a very
long time.” Production facilities have even been found as far away as Europe, in
Germany and the Netherlands. In all these cases, it was certain that governments
were not involved in the trade, according to Rose. “Syria was a very interesting
and rare case where we did see the involvement of so many high-level officials
in the regime, implicated in Captagon production and trafficking,” she said.
While Assad himself carefully distanced himself from the trade, his brother
Maher was heavily implicated with production and smuggling efforts in his role
as commander of the Fourth Armored Division, a military unit whose primary
mission was to protect the Syrian regime from internal and external threats.
Quite where he is now remains uncertain.
“I have heard that Maher and his Fourth Division commanders made their way
through Iraq to Iran and are now in Tehran,” Rose said. “However, other reports
say HTS has found and detained him. That’s not confirmed yet. But if Maher is
still there, it’s likely that a lot of members of the regime’s Captagon
organization are also still in Syria.”
Either way, there is now “an assumption that this is the end of Captagon, but
it’s not. We need to keep in mind that over the past two years Captagon
production had already started to trickle outside of Syria.
“For the longest time, regime-held Syria was the hub of Captagon production.
Then we started to see labs being seized in southern and northern Iraq and even
in Kuwait, which is interesting and makes sense. They were starting to build
this bridge through Iraq to get closer to destination markets in the Gulf.” At
the same time, there were signs that the regime was cracking down on the
Captagon trade — or, rather, pretending to — as revealed by the comprehensive
seizure data in New Lines Institute’s online mapping tool. “We saw the regime’s
incentive to normalize relations with the Gulf states, and recognition that it
needed to be seen to be cracking down on this trade, while quietly still reaping
the economic benefits,” Rose said.
“For that reason, we think, in the past year we have seen the supply of Captagon
— or, at least, what was seized — decrease dramatically, especially in Gulf
states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which were the two targets for
normalization discussions for the regime. “We have cause to believe that the
flow of Captagon was actually halted by the regime. They were stepping on the
hose to create the appearance that they had stopped Captagon production, in the
hope that it would bring the Gulf states to the table. “In fact, as we’ve seen
with the finds in Syria over the past few days, they seem to have been
stockpiling the drug. Most likely later on they would have flooded the market.”
Sandwiched between Syria and Saudi Arabia, Jordan has long borne the brunt of
smuggling attempts orchestrated by the Syrian military and Iran-backed militias
operating in the south of Syria. It has, for many years, been a key battleground
in the fight to stem the tide of the drug. Over the past few months, however,
there have been telltale signs of changes in the nature of attempts to smuggle
Captagon through Jordan to Saudi Arabia and beyond. “Unusually, we’ve not seen
any seizures in Jordan since early November,” Rose said. “Typically, around this
time of the year we would see an uptick in Captagon there, not only in smuggling
incidents, but also in clashes along the border, because that’s when the wintry
conditions start to set in, creating conditions that make it perfect for a
smuggler to bypass surveillance systems.”
In Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, the most recent recorded seizure was on Dec. 7 at
the Al-Wadiah border crossing with Yemen. The two before that were both on Nov.
30, at the checkpoint on the King Fahd Causeway to Bahrain and on the other side
of the country at the Port of Duba on the Red Sea.
“One was about 200,000 pills, the other one 280,000, so nothing major,” Rose
said. “What we’ve noticed is that the number of seizures is increasing, but the
sizes of the consignments are dwindling.”In other words, smugglers are making
more frequent runs, but with smaller batches of pills, which implies smaller
players smuggling overland, rather than major, connected players shipping in
bulk via sea.
Whatever HTS chief Al-Golani might say, or even intend, Syria is not yet free of
Captagon, according to Rose. “I am positive that there are actors who are
picking up a few thousand pills and peddling them on the street,” she said.
“This is still a very lucrative trade. Syria is not out of the woods
economically, and there will be many people who will want to try to make a
profit.”
Made for about $1 and typically sold for 15 times as much, Captagon is an
exceptionally profitable product, which is estimated to have earned the Syrian
regime more than $2 billion per year.“And at the end of the day, old habits die
hard,” Rose said. “For a lot of these individuals, not necessarily high-level
regime officials, this has been their way of life for years, and so it’s going
to be very difficult for any new government in Syria to convince these criminal
actors to give up this source of revenue.”
Defeating Hamas has become secondary to annexation of Gaza
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/December 14, 2024
To say that there is no dull moment in Middle Eastern politics would be a gross
understatement, and the past 14 months have mainly revolved around a constant
and never-ending litany of deaths, destruction, and extreme suffering. The fall
of the brutal Bashar Assad regime and, before that, an agreement to end the war
between Israel and Hezbollah have been the only flickers of hope and optimism.
Yet, as other events occupy the headlines, we must not forget Gaza. At the
beginning of the war, the objectives set by the Israeli government were of
defeating Hamas to ensure that an Oct. 7-style massacre would never be repeated,
and of bringing the hostages back home, but now the fate of the captives seems
no longer to be a priority for the Netanyahu government. Since there is a
consensus that Hamas has by now been deprived of its capability to pose a threat
to Israel and is mainly engaged in guerrilla warfare in Gaza, there has been a
shift in Israel’s objectives, and it is an extremely unpleasant one. What is
emerging are allegations of atrocious acts of ethnic cleansing, at least in
parts of the Gaza Strip, and of Israeli plans to build Israeli settlements there
— two developments that should not be allowed to materialize.
Due to the circumstances, including the total surprise and magnitude of the
losses inflicted by Hamas which ignited this war, a dangerous Israeli pattern of
response emerged that has strong elements of revenge, and a mindset that feels
justified in using excessive force and holding the entire population of Gaza
guilty of the Oct. 7 attack. Israel has sought the total elimination of Hamas,
while marginalizing the objective of releasing the hostages in favor of a
long-term and perhaps even a permanent Israeli presence in Gaza at the expense
of the Palestinians.
In the early days of the war there was an understandable and justified broad
international support for Israel to go after Hamas, but there was insufficient
commitment shown by the international community to prevent Israel from treating
the entire population of Gaza as something between collateral damage or —
supposedly because it lived under a Hamas government — as collaborators in the
crime committed by that Islamist movement.
When the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, it led to
bipartisan outrage in the Knesset despite growing evidence of war crimes
committed by Israeli troops, and their government’s shift from intentions of
ethnic cleansing to operationalizing it, at least in northern Gaza. Most
significantly, by now these claims of war crimes are not originating exclusively
from Palestinian or international sources, but from those Israelis of conscience
who are appalled by the immorality and strategic futility of the path along
which Netanyahu and his ultra right-wing government are leading the country.
Moshe Ya’alon, who previously served first as Israeli military chief of staff
and later as a defense minister in Netanyahu’s Cabinet until falling out with
the prime minister for his recklessness and his corrupting of the entire
political system, is not known for his dovish outlook toward Israel’s foreign
affairs and most definitely not with regard to the conflict with the
Palestinians. However, Ya’alon has still felt obliged to speak up in public
against what Israel is perpetrating in Gaza. In an interview with Israel’s
Channel 12 TV, this decorated former military commander argued that the hawks in
Netanyahu’s far-right Cabinet are looking to chase out the Palestinians from
northern Gaza to enable them to establish settlements there. And to the surprise
of his interviewer, he then declared that “the path they’re dragging us down is
to occupy, annex, and ethnically cleanse — look at the northern strip,” and
insisted that this was the true situation, despite being challenged on his view
both on and off air.
There has been as shift in Israel’s objectives, and it is an extremely
unpleasant one.
But we might well ask why he should retract his claim, when Finance Minister
Bezalel Smotrich suggested last month that Israel should occupy Gaza and
“encourage” half of the enclave’s 2.2 million Palestinians to emigrate within
two years, and claimed with qualms neither ethical nor political that “it is
possible to create a situation where Gaza’s population will be reduced to half
its current size in two years,” and that Israel can afford this.
This is the chilling testimony to the state of mind within the settler movement,
which has disproportionate power within the Cabinet. They believe that Israel’s
military power, which degraded the military capabilities of Hamas and Hezbollah,
and re-established deterrence with Tehran, has instilled enough fear among the
people of Gaza that they could be bribed en masse to give up their national and
political rights. One dreads to think what Plan B would be for Smotrich should
more than a million people refuse to accept his dirty money and leave.
In the meantime, there is mounting evidence of war crimes being committed in
Gaza. An Israeli historian, Lee Mordechai, has compiled a database of thousands
of videos, photos, testimonies, and shocking evidence based on eyewitness
accounts, reports, and investigations that documents the horrors committed by
Israel in Gaza which was exposed in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz. In his
report, Mordechai, who is also a former officer in the Israeli army’s Combat
Engineering Corps, is said to present evidence linking soldiers to “shooting
civilians waving white flags, abuse of individuals, captives and corpses,
gleefully damaging or destroying houses, various structures and institutions,
religious sites and looting personal belongings,” among other alleged abuses of
power in clear and obvious violation of international humanitarian law.
Most of the Israeli media fails its viewers miserably by neglecting to show the
horrors their army is committing in Gaza on their behalf, while most of the
population, in an act of willful ignorance, is not asking questions or looking
for this “inconvenient truth” elsewhere. Neither the trauma of Oct. 7, nor
Israelis who claim not to know about the humanitarian disaster inflicted on
Gaza’s population, nor any alleged crimes committed by a family member, friend
or neighbor could ever serve as valid excuses for not demanding that their
government bring this despicable behavior to an immediate halt.
At some point, hopefully soon, the guns will fall silent, and those who were
behind them or gave orders to misuse them will have first and foremost to live
with their conscience regarding how they treated innocent and defenseless
people, but this might not be enough. Fighting an enemy, as cruel as it might
be, is one thing; demonizing and dehumanizing other human beings, and hurting
and humiliating them, is completely different. It is, therefore, no surprise
that Israel’s reputation in the world is at an all-time low. Even worse,
however, is that Israel’s appalling conduct damages Israeli society and its
ability to live, one day, in peace with its Palestinian neighbors.
• Yossi Mekelberg is a professor of international relations and an associate
fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House.
X: @YMekelberg
EU broadens its horizons with South America deal
Andrew Hammond/Arab News/December 14, 2024
A common perception of the EU is that it is a lumbering, sclerotic bloc that is
punching well below its weight on the world stage. However, the new European
Commission of President Ursula von der Leyen is moving fast, at home and abroad,
in its first 100 days, including last week’s big new trade deal with South
America.The concept of the first 100 days of a new political leadership dates
back to at least the first US presidency of Franklin Roosevelt in 1933. In just
over three months, the Roosevelt White House worked with Congress to pass dozens
of laws, many directed toward reviving the US economy in the midst of the Great
Depression.The first 100 days has, therefore, typically been defined in terms of
domestic policy. However, for the new European Commission, which took office on
Dec. 1, foreign policy will be just as much at the fore. Perhaps the key reason
for this is that of the incoming second US presidency of Donald Trump. Trump’s
first term saw the EU shaken by his hostility toward the bloc, and Brussels had
hoped that there would be no repeat experience.
Yet, following the Nov. 5 US election, top EU officials know that the period
from Jan. 20 may be the most difficult four years in the bloc’s decades-long
history, including a potential trade war with Washington. Trump comes into
office with a different agenda from other presidents in the post-war era who, to
a lesser or greater degree, saw European integration as a positive dynamic for
the US. In his first term, he favored the dismemberment of the bloc.
It is in this context that von der Leyen now urgently needs to pursue a robust
foreign policy that preserves and protects EU interests, at home and abroad. On
the security front, perhaps the biggest challenge may come with the Ukraine war
if Trump reduces or stops support for Kyiv.
Beyond this crucial issue, however, are a much wider series of foreign policy
questions, as the EU seeks to broaden its range of foreign policy and economic
partners following Russia’s 2022 invasion. An early key test of this approach
came at last week’s Mercosur summit when the EU struck a big trade deal with
partners in South America, sometimes described as the political “backyard” of
the US.
To be sure, the EU is currently negotiating trade deals with multiple key world
powers, including India. However, the most imminent possibility of a deal is
with Mercosur, which includes Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay, to
create a “new” combined market of the best part of 800 million people.
While von der Leyen and a critical mass of European national leaders, including
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, pushed the Mercosur deal hard, and got it over
the line, there has been rearguard opposition. This includes most notably from
French President Emmanuel Macron, who has channeled concerns about the deal from
the powerful farming lobby, not just in his own nation, but also across the EU.
While Ursula von der Leyen and a critical mass of European national leaders
pushed the Mercosur deal hard, and got it over the line, there has been
rearguard opposition.
In part, this is because of the deal’s import quotas of key agricultural
products from the Mercosur bloc, either duty free or at reduced levy. These
goods include beef, poultry, ethanol, sugar, maize, and soybean products.
To be sure, the new agreement is not all one-way traffic. For instance, EU
producers secure increased access to Mercosur markets that could boost exports
of products such as wine, cheese, milk powder, and olive oil.
However, the net agricultural benefit is forecast to strongly favor Mercosur.
For instance, the EU sugar trade deficit with the South American bloc would rise
to about €330 million ($346 million) by 2032 from €223 million in
2023, according to the European Commission’s Joint Research Center.
Amid these economic machinations, and with a darkening foreign policy context
for Europe, von der Leyen pushed the Mercosur deal so hard because she perceived
if it was not concluded now, any later deal might take years, if indeed it ever
materialized.
Business support is also strong for the deal. Only last month, around 80
business associations in the EU and Mercosur urged their respective governments
to fast-track finalization of the trade agreement.
The corporate groups highlight that, in 2022, EU-Mercosur trade reached more
than €159 billion in goods and services, with mutual investments at about
€380 billion. This massive economic web of investment underpins millions of
jobs. The business lobbies estimate that the agreement will significantly reduce
tariffs on EU exports to Mercosur, enhancing competitiveness for EU companies by
saving about €4 billion annually in duties.
This underlines that one of the pressing reasons the Mercosur trade agreement
has become more important for von der Leyen is that South America is potentially
key to the EU’s economic diversification agenda since Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine. Mercosur is, potentially, a vast new source of raw materials as Europe
broadens its global supply chains, a growing imperative.
Former EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has even said that the South
America region has the economic potential of becoming the “new Arabian Gulf”
given its critical mineral assets such as lithium. He and many key European
decision-makers perceive the Mercosur deal will pull the two regions closer
geopolitically amid a broader, international competition for influence,
including China and Russia seeking to strengthen diplomatic ties with
resource-rich South America.
• Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
Georgia’s shaky path to EU creates options for Middle East
Dr. Diana Galeeva/Arab News/December 14, 2024
Almost a year ago, Georgia reached a milestone in its foreign policy when the
European Commission announced the country was a candidate for EU membership.
Despite that historic decision, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said
last week that arrangements to join the bloc would be delayed, and membership
talks would not be held until 2028 — a statement that led to rioting in Tbilisi.
What is Georgia’s path to the EU now, and the potential implications of this
decision for the country; and what might these developments mean for the Middle
East?
Given its “small state” status, Georgia is torn between Russia and the West,
especially since the outbreak of the Ukraine war. Georgia, as well as Moldova,
which borders Ukraine, has been feeling the effects of the polarized political
field on its ability to calibrate foreign policy. In August 2008, Russia and
Georgia had a brief war, after which Moscow declared the independence of South
Ossetia and another breakaway province, Abkhazia, and established an armed base
there.
Initially, the Georgian government expressed solidarity with Ukraine in the UN,
the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and the Council of
Europe. In March 2022, Georgia took an essential symbolic step toward EU
membership, a few days after Ukraine’s application. However, the country did not
impose economic sanctions on Russia. Coincidentally, after the recent decisions,
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed his view to European partners
and the US in support of Georgia’s pro-EU movement, following up on Ukraine’s
sanctions against the Georgian government amid its crackdowns on EU protests.
Ukraine’s Western backers supported this path. In an official statement on
Georgia’s suspension of EU accession, the US said that this “process goes
against the promise to the Georgian people enshrined in their constitution to
pursue full integration into the EU and NATO.” Earlier, in October, the European
Commission told Georgia that it would not be able to recommend opening EU
membership talks with the state unless it changed political course, considering
that the Georgian Dream policy is increasingly Moscow friendly.
According to the bloc’s expansion policy, the commission repeated that
“Georgia’s accession process has de facto been halted” because of reasons such
as legislation and need for electoral reform, and a new policy that requires
organizations in Georgia to obtain more than 20 percent of their financial
support from abroad to register as agents of foreign impact — which is regarded
as “strong anti-EU narratives.” After the decision of the Georgian Dream
governing party to suspend its path to the EU, Dutch officials said that they
would ask the EU to suspend its visa-free arrangement with Georgia, in addition
to requesting an examination into the actions of the Georgian Dream government.
Despite Georgia being sandwiched by the geopolitical rivalry between Russia and
the West, it seems the crisis within Europe, nonetheless, may play out
positively in terms of Georgia’s relations with Middle Eastern partners.
Relations are already being boosted through the memorandum of understanding that
has linked Georgia and the GCC since 2017, in addition to the joint action plan
that was approved in 2022. This includes cooperation in the fields of politics,
economy, and communications.
Georgia is now an attractive investment destination for Saudi Arabia.
Individual bilateral relations with member countries have been growing, while
official visits have been particularly frequent, helping to facilitate mutual
benefits. In 2022, bilateral non-oil trade between Georgia and UAE reached $468
million, an increase of 110 percent over 2021, and constituting 63 percent of
Georgia’s trade with the entire Arab world. In 2023, the UAE signed a
comprehensive economic partnership agreement with Georgia, particularly
motivated by the strategic importance of Georgia, which acts as an East-West
corridor to boost connectivity and trade. Its position makes Georgia an
important transit hub between Asia and Europe, and this has become more
important, especially for Europe in recent times. As security concerns grow
around energy supplies, in particular, reliable alternative routes and markets
are key.
After the official visit of Irakli Garibashvili to Saudi Arabia at the end of
2022, where the then-prime minister met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman,
Georgia became an area of special interest. While Georgia is now an attractive
investment destination for the Kingdom, transformations in Saudi Arabia, such as
the implementation of Vision 2030, and the NEOM project — a city expected to be
run totally on renewable energy — have been key drivers, too. As 85 percent of
Georgia’s electricity comes from renewable sources, renewable energy, its
technology and expertise, is a strategic priority for Georgia, and an important
tool for cooperation with the energy-rich GCC states in their efforts to
diversify.
In addition to renewables, relations with Saudi Arabia are strategic in the
economic field, especially in agriculture, manufacturing, and tourism. In
October this year, Levan Davitashvili, Georgian minister of economy and
sustainable development, held a meeting with a Saudi business delegation within
the framework of the Georgia-Saudi Business Forum. The highlight of the event
was that Polymer Solution, Gulf Pharma, and Medical Bridge signed an agreement
to bring over $52.5 million of investment to Georgia. Similarly, during recent
meetings between Qatar and Georgia’s leaderships, economic diplomacy —
intensified economic and business relations — was discussed, which relies on
Georgia’s attractive investment environment and strategic location.
Georgia’s EU route has become challenging over recent years, and depends on many
internal and international factors, including the outcome of the Ukraine war,
the policies of a new Trump administration toward NATO, and other geopolitical
events. Nonetheless, the subsequent uncertainty opens a unique opportunity to
further boost relations with alternative players, including from the Middle
East, which have recently been increasing their importance. The Georgian Dream
party will need to respond to further internal pressure, as pro-Western
sentiment among citizens is high. But at the same time, the government will be
further pressured over the consequences of greater integration, and geopolitical
as well as security concerns, according to the state’s evolving needs.
In such uncertain times, it will be pragmatic also to pay attention to the
opportunities offered by other countries, including the Gulf states, where much
progress has already been made.
• Dr. Diana Galeeva is an academic visitor to Oxford University.
X: @Dr_GaleevaDiana