English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 05/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
What a wretched man I am! Who will deliver me out of the body of this death?
Romans 07/04-25/Therefore, my brothers, you also were made dead to the law through the body of Christ, that you would be joined to another, to him who was raised from the dead, that we might produce fruit to God. For when we were in the flesh, the sinful passions which were through the law worked in our members to bring out fruit to death. But now we have been discharged from the law, having died to that in which we were held; so that we serve in newness of the spirit, and not in oldness of the letter. What shall we say then? Is the law sin? May it never be! However, I wouldn’t have known sin except through the law. For I wouldn’t have known coveting unless the law had said, “You shall not covet. But sin, finding occasion through the commandment, produced in me all kinds of coveting. For apart from the law, sin is dead. 9 I was alive apart from the law once, but when the commandment came, sin revived and I died. The commandment which was for life, this I found to be for death; for sin, finding occasion through the commandment, deceived me, and through it killed me. Therefore the law indeed is holy, and the commandment holy, righteous, and good. Did then that which is good become death to me? May it never be! But sin, that it might be shown to be sin, was producing death in me through that which is good; that through the commandment sin might become exceedingly sinful. For we know that the law is spiritual, but I am fleshly, sold under sin. For I don’t understand what I am doing. For I don’t practice what I desire to do; but what I hate, that I do. But if what I don’t desire, that I do, I consent to the law that it is good. So now it is no more I that do it, but sin which dwells in me. For I know that in me, that is, in my flesh, dwells no good thing. For desire is present with me, but I don’t find it doing that which is good. For the good which I desire, I don’t do; but the evil which I don’t desire, that I practice. But if what I don’t desire, that I do, it is no more I that do it, but sin which dwells in me. I find then the law that, while I desire to do good, evil is present. For I delight in God’s law after the inward person, but I see a different law in my members, warring against the law of my mind, and bringing me into captivity under the law of sin which is in my members. What a wretched man I am! Who will deliver me out of the body of this death? I thank God through Jesus Christ, our Lord! So then with the mind, I myself serve God’s law, but with the flesh, sin’s law.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 04-05/2024
Text & Video: The Jihadist, Mullah-Controlled, and Lawless Hezbollah Sets Standards for Social Values and Seeks to Impose Them on Lebanese Through Terrorism/Elias Bejjani
Lebanese Army deploys rocket launchers on Syria's border
Macron urges respect for ceasefire, calls on Hezbollah to 'facilitate consensus'
Boulos says ceasefire agreement covers entire Lebanon, not only area south of Litani
An Israeli strike kills a person in Lebanon, further shaking the tenuous ceasefire
Report: Ceasefire agreement not designed to fall in a few days
Israel war killed more than 4,047 people in Lebanon
Hezbollah MP says al-Qard al-Hassan is under the law
LF: Hezbollah must legalize Qard al-Hassan, 'era of chaos' no longer acceptable
Ceasefire monitoring committee to hold first meeting Friday
Despite a wary ceasefire with Hezbollah, Israel has much to celebrate - opinion
The Hezbollah threat: Weakened, but not gone – opinion
Blinken: Ceasefire oversight mechanism 'is working'
Trump administration to focus on hostages, Iran nuclear deal, says new Middle East adviser
Lebanese Army Deploys South as Israel Withdraws from Border Villages
Deadly Israeli Strike in Lebanon Further Shakes Tenuous Ceasefire
Adraee: Israeli Operations Are Still Ongoing
Hezbollah aims to rebuild longer term despite Israeli blows, US intel says
Lebanon Question Its Commitment To The Ceasefire Agreement With Israel
Arabs No Longer Buying the Lies of Hamas, Hezbollah/Bassam Tawil/ Gatestone Institute./December 04/2024
Lebanon Charity Picks up Pieces after Israeli Bombing
Macron says Syria’s Assad cannot be an agent of Iran while acting against security of Israel and stability of Lebanon
The Hezbollah-Israel Ceasefire and U.S. Leadership: What Comes Next/David Schenker, Hanin Ghaddar, Assaf Orion, Matthew Levitt
Chronicle/Joseph Aoun: A Unanimously Respected Leader and a Vote that Doesn't Reflect Reality
Lebanese Exports: Top Products and Destinations/Christiane Tager/This is Beirut/December 04/2024
Ceasefire Monitoring Committee: An "Enhanced Complaint Bureau"/Nidal Ayoub/This is Beirut/December 04/2024

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 04-05/2024
Israel, US behind weakening of 'Axis of Resistance' in Syria, Iranian army chief says
Palestinians accuse Israeli forces of raiding West Bank hospital
Katz: Israel 'can truly advance a hostage deal' as pressure on Hamas ramps up
Trump taps Abraham Accords negotiator Adam Boehler as special envoy for hostage affairs
Israel Says Deaths of Six Hostages in Gaza Probably Linked to Israeli Strike
Amnesty report says Israel has committed genocide against Palestinians in Gaza
Arab League Reiterates Rejection of Forced Displacement of Gaza Residents
Hamas Threatens to 'Neutralize' Hostages if Israel Launches Rescue Operation
Hamas, Fatah Agree to Form Committee to Govern Gaza
Israeli Strike on a Gaza Tent Camp Kills at Least 21 People, Hospital Says
Israeli Settlers Attack Two Palestinian Towns and Their Own Military in West Bank
Who is Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the leader of Syria's shock insurgency?
Russia strongly backs Syrian leadership, says rebels are getting outside help
Syrian military and rebels battle around Hama
US forces in Syria at frontline of Iran, regime threats - analysis
Russia, Iran, Turkey in 'close contact' over Syria conflict
Syrian army launches counteroffensive against rebels near Hama
Syria’s Opposition Leader Tours Seized City of Aleppo, as Fierce Battles Intensify Near Hama
UN Envoy: Situation in Syria ‘Dangerous’ and Threatens ISIS Resurgence
Israeli Army is Setting Up Rapid Response Unit on Border with Syria
Red Cross marks record numbers of humanitarians killed in 2024

Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on December 04-05/2024
The US-Iraq Relationship and its Implications for Regional Stability/Farhad Alaaldin/The Iraqi Prime Minister's Advisor for Foreign Affairs/Asharq Al Awsat/December 04/2024
Bridging Borders with Energy: MENA’s Path to Regional Energy Integration/Ousmane Dione and Paul Noumba Um/Asharq Al Awsat/December 04/2024
Natural allies: Iranians reject regime’s anti-Israel policies/Saeed Ghasseminejad & Janatan Sayeh/Ynet News/December 04/2024
Gaza’s despair echoed by AI … A robot’s take on humanity/Bakir Oweida/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 04, 2024
Mismanagement Makes Iran Vulnerable to a Different Type of U.S. Pressure/ Patrick Clawson/The Washington Institute/December 04/2024
Video Link From The Washington Institute/Pannel Discussion with 4 expert look at the stunning battlefield advances of rebel forces in Syria and the implications for regional and global security/ Title Of The Pannel : The (Next) Battle for Northwest Syria: U.S. Policy Implications/December 04/2024

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 04-05/2024
Text & Video: The Jihadist, Mullah-Controlled, and Lawless Hezbollah Sets Standards for Social Values and Seeks to Impose Them on Lebanese Through Terrorism
Elias Bejjani/December 02, 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/12/137492/
A shocking incident unfolded in the southern Lebanese town of Al-Duwair on November 30, 2024, when journalist Daoud Rammal was brutally assaulted by individuals linked to Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed terrorist proxy. Rammal was at the town’s cemetery reciting prayers for his deceased parents when the attack occurred. The violence was so brutal that he lost consciousness. Shockingly, the assailants followed him to his home, continuing their assault in front of his family. This barbaric act underscores the alarming violence, jihadist extremism, and authoritarianism perpetrated by Hezbollah.
Hezbollah’s Statement: A Deceptive Denial
Following the attack, Hezbollah’s Media Relations issued a statement claiming the assault was (“an individual incident” unrelated to the party. It added, “Freedom of expression is sacred as long as it does not violate social values and applicable laws.”)
This statement is deeply troubling. By asserting the right to define “violations of social values,” Hezbollah essentially appoints itself as the arbiter of morality, granting itself the authority to police the Lebanese public, including Shiites, journalists, and all citizens, according to its sectarian, jihadist, and extremist criteria.
Imposing Guardianship on Lebanon
Rooted in its sectarian and Iranian jihadist ideology, Hezbollah is forcibly attempting to impose its guardianship over the Shiite community in particular, and Lebanese society as a whole. Its claim to moral authority over “social values” blatantly contradicts Lebanon’s identity as a pluralistic nation, which encompasses 18 religious sects and a rich tapestry of cultures and civilizations.
In a diverse society like Lebanon, no group—particularly not a militant Islamist organization like Hezbollah—has the right to dictate social norms or restrict freedoms based on its denominational religious views and standards . This approach not only undermines Lebanon’s constitutional principles and foundational diversity, but also constitutes a flagrant assault on public freedoms, and the broader aspirations of the Shiite community for independence and coexistence.
Silencing Dissent and Muzzling the Media
The attack on journalist Daoud Rammal is not an isolated incident, as Hezbollah claims. Instead, it reflects a systematic strategy to silence dissent and muzzle the media. This violent episode highlights Hezbollah’s reliance on intimidation and force to suppress voices that challenge its agenda or refuse to align with its extremist ideology.
A Call for Collective Rejection
Hezbollah’s oppressive behavior requires a united and resolute response from all Lebanese citizens, regardless of sect or affiliation. The Lebanese people must reject Hezbollah’s dominance over public freedoms and its self-imposed guardianship over society. Members of the Shiite community, in particular, should recognize that this control is not in their interest. Instead, it isolates them and fosters hostility toward their Lebanese and Arab surroundings.
Conclusion
The assault on Daoud Rammal is yet another example of Hezbollah’s tyranny cloaked in deceptive rhetoric. In a nation founded on pluralism, no entity has the right to impose its moral code on society or to subject the media to its restrictive standards. Freedom of expression is a fundamental right that cannot be compromised. Any attack on it is an attack on Lebanon’s essence and identity.

Lebanese Army deploys rocket launchers on Syria's border
Naharnet /December 04/2024
The Lebanese Army, which is busy with the implementation of the ceasefire agreement in the south with Israel, finds itself facing a no less important task on the northern border with Syria. The advance of armed factions, specifically Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and allied factions in Aleppo and the Hama countryside, as well as their arrival to the outskirts of Hama city, has prompted the Army Command to “mobilize to take preventive measures for fear of extremist groups reaching the Lebanese border or the movement of sleeper cells inside the country,” Asharq al-Awsat newspaper reported on Wednesday.
According to a Lebanese security source who spoke to the daily, “multiple rocket launchers have been deployed, and the units deployed on the northern border have been reinforced so that there is readiness to deal with any emergency.”There is “a large deployment of the army in Akkar and Baalbek-Hermel, where there are two land border regiments, two brigades and special units, seeing as it is an open area, and controlling the border is not an easy matter,” the source added. “Measures, checkpoints and army patrols are being intensified in the northern regions,” the source said. Lebanon fears a repeat of the events that took place on the eastern border with Syria in 2014, when groups from the Islamic State group and al-Nusra Front stormed the border town of Arsal, killing soldiers and civilians before occupying areas along the Lebanese-Syrian border for years. It also fears the movement of sleeper cells in conjunction with what is happening in Syria, especially with the presence of hundreds of thousands of displaced Syrians spread across most Lebanese regions. The Lebanese fear is not limited to militants storming the northern border, but also of a new wave of displacement as a result of the intense fighting in northern Syria. The Lebanese security source said that “appropriate measures have been taken to prevent the influx of displaced persons from illegal crossings,” noting that “until now, no new displacement movement has been recorded towards Lebanon.”It is worth noting that about 400,000 displaced Syrians had left Lebanon in the past two months after Israel expanded the war to Lebanon. “There are no confirmed reports of Syrians fleeing the hostilities in northwestern Syria heading to Lebanon,” said UNHCR spokesperson in Lebanon, Dalal Harb, noting in a statement to Asharq al-Awsat that “however, UNHCR is closely monitoring the situation and remains in contact with relevant actors on both sides of the border to assess any potential movements or needs.”'

Macron urges respect for ceasefire, calls on Hezbollah to 'facilitate consensus'
Naharnet/December 04/2024
French President Emmanuel Macron has called on both Israel and Hezbollah to respect the ceasefire in Lebanon. “We will not stop calling for the ceasefire in Lebanon to be respected for the long haul. It is essential for the parties -- and this goes for both Hezbollah and Israel -- to fulfill all their obligations,” Macron said in an interview with An-Nahar newspaper. “The international community must continue its efforts to support the Lebanese Armed Forces which are a keystone of this agreement and of the restoration of Lebanon’s sovereignty, in line with the conference we held in Paris on 24 October this year,” Macron added. As for Saudi Arabia, the French leader said it “contributes to Lebanon’s stability and has a role to play in bringing an end to the political crisis.” “At this crucial time for Lebanon’s future, it is important for us to discuss support to the Lebanese Armed Forces and the reconstruction of the country with the (Saudi) Crown Prince (Mohammed bin Salman), as well as the political prospects opened up by the 9 January session of the Lebanese parliament, in the hope that the president the country so dearly needs is elected,” Macron added. Urging all Lebanese parties to “contribute to the solution,” the French president called on Hezbollah in particular to “facilitate consensus and foster Lebanese unity.”“The process needs speeding up now that the ceasefire is in place. I therefore asked (special envoy for Lebanon) Jean-Yves Le Drian to visit Lebanon as soon as it was concluded. I welcome the announcement by the speaker of the parliament to organize a session of the Parliament on 9 January: it is important for it to be conclusive and enable Lebanon to break free of its institutional crisis,” Macron added. “Now more than ever, Lebanon needs a president capable of conducting a national dialogue addressing the interests of all Lebanese people; and it needs a government and reforms to restore the confidence of international partners to contribute to the country’s reconstruction and stabilization,” Macron urged.

Boulos says ceasefire agreement covers entire Lebanon, not only area south of Litani
Naharnet/December 04/2024
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s Senior Adviser on Arab and Middle Eastern Affairs, Massad Boulos, has described the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire as “a historic agreement for both countries, the importance of which will be measured in the weeks and months to come.” “It is very comprehensive and covers all the necessary points,” Boulos added, in an interview with French magazine Le Point. “There was a misunderstanding at the beginning, especially in Lebanon, where it was believed that this document only covered the region south of the Litani River, but this is not true at all. It deals with the entire country, with the disarmament of all armed groups, both militias and paramilitary groups,” Boulos explained. He added that the text is very specific about the application of U.N. resolutions, whether 1701 or 1559. “Thus, only a certain number of institutions have the right to hold weapons in Lebanon, including the Lebanese Army, Internal Security Forces, customs services and the municipal police,” Boulos went on to say. Asked how Hezbollah could be prohibited on the ground from possessing arms, the advisor said: “This is a very good question, which is not an easy one. Let me tell you first that according to some estimates, nearly 70% of strategic weapons and missile and drone depots have been destroyed during this war. As for what remains, it is normally the Lebanese state and therefore the Lebanese Army that has the role of disarming the militias and paramilitary groups. Now, we know very well that this process cannot be achieved overnight, and that it will take months, if not longer.”He added that the ceasefire agreement adopted by the Lebanese Council of Ministers in any case gives the Lebanese Army full freedom to begin implementing it. “Under the text, the Lebanese army is also responsible for controlling the flow of weapons from the Syrian border, Beirut airport or the port of the capital, which are now under its control,” Boulos added. Asked whether the ceasefire agreement still holds after Lebanese authorities denounced numerous violations of the ceasefire by the Israeli army, the advisor said: “Yes, that's true, but we see the same thing on the other side. It's not a surprise. We are currently in a 60-day test period, and the text of the agreement itself talks about the right of each party to defend itself.”As for the role that the U.S. will play in monitoring the ceasefire agreement, Boulos said that what is very important in this agreement is the monitoring committee responsible for its implementation. “Within it, the United States and France must verify that all its details are actually implemented on the ground. Because if Resolution 1701 was not implemented at all when it was adopted in 2006, it was precisely because there was no mechanism at the time to ensure its implementation, an error corrected by this agreement,” Boulos added. He also reiterated to Lebanon’s lawmakers that “there is no need to hurry up and elect just anyone” as president. “On the contrary, we must try to ensure the participation of the absolute majority of the representatives of the Lebanese people and not obtain the election of a president with only 65 votes,” he said.

An Israeli strike kills a person in Lebanon, further shaking the tenuous ceasefire
Bassam Hatoum And Sally Abou Aljoud/NABATIYEH, Lebanon (AP)/December 4, 2024
Israeli forces carried out several new drone and artillery strikes in Lebanon on Tuesday, including a deadly strike that the Health Ministry and state media said killed one person, further shaking a tenuous ceasefire meant to end more than a year of fighting with Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed keep striking “with an iron fist” against perceived Hezbollah violations of the truce. His defense minister warned that if the ceasefire collapses, Israel will target not just Hezbollah but the Lebanese state — an expansion of Israel’s campaign. Israel also carried out an airstrike in Syria, saying it killed a senior member of Hezbollah responsible for coordinating with Syria’s army on rearming and resupplying the Lebanese militant group. Israel has repeatedly hit Hezbollah targets in Syria, but Tuesday's attack was a rare public acknowledgement. Syrian state media reported that an Israeli drone strike hit a car in a suburb of the capital Damascus, killing one person.
Since the two-month ceasefire in Lebanon began last Wednesday, the U.S.- and French-brokered deal has been rattled by near daily Israeli attacks, although Israel has been vague about the purported Hezbollah violations that prompted them. On Monday, it was shaken by its biggest test yet. Hezbollah fired two projectiles toward an Israeli-held disputed border zone, its first volley since the ceasefire began, saying it was a “warning” in response to Israel’s strikes. Israel responded with its heaviest barrage of the past week, killing 10 people. On Tuesday, drone strikes hit four places in southern Lebanon, one of them killing a person in the town of Shebaa, the state-run National News Agency said. The Health Ministry confirmed the death. Asked about the strike, the Israeli military said its aircraft struck a Hezbollah militant who posed a threat to troops. Shebaa is situated within a region of border villages where the Israeli military has warned Lebanese civilians not to return, with Israeli troops still present. Israeli forces fired an artillery shell at one location and opened fire with small arms toward a town, the news agency reported. With Tuesday’s death, Israeli strikes since the ceasefire began have killed at least 15 people. Under the terms of the ceasefire, Hezbollah is supposed to withdraw its fighters, weapons and infrastructure from a broad swath of the south by the end of the initial 60-day phase, pulling them north of the Litani River. Israeli troops are also to pull back to their side of the border. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said any violations of the agreement would be met with “a maximum response and zero tolerance.”Speaking to troops on Israel’s northern border Tuesday, he said if the war resumes, Israel will widen its strikes beyond the areas where Hezbollah’s activities are concentrated, and “there will no longer be an exemption for the state of Lebanon.”The ceasefire ended 14 months of war between Israel and Hezbollah, capped by an intensified Israeli bombardment since late September and ground invasion that killed hundreds of Hezbollah members and civilians in Lebanon and sent more than 1.4 million fleeing their homes. Throughout that fighting, Israel largely refrained from striking critical infrastructure or the Lebanese armed forces, who kept to the sidelines.
Israel has said its aim is to push Hezbollah away from the border to allow the return home of tens of thousands of Israelis forced to evacuate from the north since Hezbollah began firing into Israel in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza. “At the moment we are in a ceasefire, I note — a ceasefire, not the end of the war. We have a clear goal to return the residents, to rehabilitate the north,” Netanyahu said at the start of the government meeting Tuesday. “We are enforcing this ceasefire with an iron fist, acting against any violation, minor or major,” he said.
Lebanese officials have accused Israel of violating the ceasefire dozens of times with strikes, overflights of drones and demolitions of homes. When Israel has issued statements about its strikes, it says they were done because of “hostile” actions by Hezbollah that posed a “threat to Israeli civilians,” without specifying their nature. Tens of thousands of Lebanese who fled Israel's bombardment in the past months quickly returned to parts of the south after the ceasefire went into effect. In the southern city of Nabatiyeh, bulldozers cleared streets strewn with rubble and debris from destroyed buildings, and electricians worked on fixing power cables in an effort to restore electricity. Imad Yassin returned to find his clothing store destroyed. He hopes the state will provide compensation so he can rebuild. “Netanyahu is trying to displace us as southern Lebanon citizens,” he said. But like many others, he had little faith Israel would abide by the ceasefire.Hussein Badreddin, a vegetable seller who also returned, said Israel was not committed to the truce. “The Israelis are breaching the ceasefire whenever they can,” he said.Israel says that under the truce deal, it has the right to retaliate for Hezbollah violations. Speaking to reporters in Washington, U.S. State Department deputy spokesman Vedant Patel would not discuss individual allegations of violations.
“We believe the ceasefire continues to be largely holding in place,” he said.
The U.S. military announced last week that Maj. Gen. Jasper Jeffers alongside senior U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein will co-chair a U.S.-led committee that is supposed to monitor the ceasefire and ensure adherence to it. The committee also includes France, the U.N. peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon known as UNIFIL, Lebanon, and Israel. Hochstein led over a year of shuttle diplomacy to broker the ceasefire deal, and his role will be temporary until a permanent civilian co-chair is appointed. Under the deal, the Lebanese army and UNIFIL are to increase their presence in south Lebanon to ensure Hezbollah does not return. The Lebanese army, which is supported by the U.S. but has suffered severe financial strains in recent years, launched a recruitment drive Tuesday. The military currently has about 80,000 troops, with around 5,000 of them deployed in the south.

Report: Ceasefire agreement not designed to fall in a few days
Naharnet/December 04/2024
A Lebanese ministerial source has reassured that the ceasefire agreement with Israel “will hold and will not collapse” despite all the violations that followed its announcement. “Since the agreement was reached, nothing has changed at the level of the political and military facts that led to its birth, and accordingly there are no reasons that justify renouncing it,” the source told al-Joumhouria newspaper in remarks published Wednesday. “The agreement was not made to collapse after a few days,” the source added, noting that the Israeli violations are messages to Israel’s citizens aimed at convincing them that their government is firm in preventing Hezbollah from violating the agreement and restoring its capabilities,” the source added, noting that Israel wants to reassure its citizens and encourage them to return to the war-hit north. The source also expected the five-party ceasefire monitoring committee to manage to contain the Israeli violations once it commences its mission, “especially that it is led by a U.S. general.”“Washington supposedly does not have an interest in the failure of the committee led by it from the very beginning,” the source added.

Israel war killed more than 4,047 people in Lebanon
Agence France Presse/December 04/2024
Lebanese Health Minister Firas Abiad on Wednesday said the toll in more than a year of war between Israel and Hezbollah had reached 4,047 dead, most of them since September. "Until now... we have recorded 4,047 dead and 16,638 wounded," Abiad told reporters a week after a ceasefire took effect. Most of the deaths occurred after September 15, he said, adding that "we believe the real number may be higher" due to unrecorded deaths.

Hezbollah MP says al-Qard al-Hassan is under the law
Naharnet/December 04/2024
Hezbollah MP Hussein al-Hajj Hassan told al-Jadeed TV on Wednesday that “all of Hezbollah’s institutions are licensed and under the law, especially al-Qard al-Hassan.”“We are always keen on implementing the laws,” he added. His remarks come after the Lebanese Forces said Hezbollah must work to “legalize” all its institutions, including the al-Qard al-Hassan financial institution, amid reports that Hezbollah will reopen its branches after they were hit by Israeli airstrikes. The Lebanese Forces' media office said that practices and policies that do not respect the state, the laws and the constitution are no longer acceptable. "The time has come for the return of the state," the LF said, dubbing Hezbollah's policies "an era of chaos" that is no longer acceptable as "Lebanon enters a new national phase."

LF: Hezbollah must legalize Qard al-Hassan, 'era of chaos' no longer acceptable
Naharnet/December 04/2024
The Lebanese Forces said Wednesday that Hezbollah must legitimize all its institutions, including the al-Qard al-Hassan financial institution, amid reports that Hezbollah will reopen its branches after being hit by Israeli airstrikes.The Israeli army had targeted during more than 13 months of war in Lebanon branches of al-Qard al-Hassan in south and east Lebanon, and in Beirut and it's suburbs. The Lebanese Forces' media office said that practices and policies that do not respect the state, the laws and the constitution are no longer acceptable, calling on Hezbollah to legalize all its institutions. "The time has come for the return of the state," the LF said, dubbing Hezbollah's policies "an era of chaos" that is no longer acceptable as "Lebanon enters a new national phase".

Ceasefire monitoring committee to hold first meeting Friday
Associated Press/December 04/2024
A U.S.-led committee that is supposed to monitor the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel will hold its first meeting Friday, an informed source told local al-Joumhouria newspaper. The committee also includes France, the U.N. peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon (UNIFIL), Lebanon, and Israel. Maj. Gen. Jasper Jeffers alongside senior U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein will co-chair the committee. Brigadier General Edgar Lawandos, commander of the southern Litani sector in the Lebanese army, will represent Lebanon, and General Guillaume Ponchin will represent France. Israeli forces carried out several new drone and artillery strikes in Lebanon on Tuesday, including a deadly strike that the Health Ministry and state media said killed one person, further shaking a tenuous ceasefire meant to end more than a year of fighting with Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed keep striking “with an iron fist” against perceived Hezbollah violations of the truce. His defense minister warned that if the ceasefire collapses, Israel will target not just Hezbollah but the Lebanese state — an expansion of Israel’s campaign. Since the two-month ceasefire in Lebanon began last Wednesday, the U.S.- and French-brokered deal has been rattled by near daily Israeli attacks, although Israel has been vague about the purported Hezbollah violations that prompted them. On Monday, it was shaken by its biggest test yet. Hezbollah fired two projectiles toward an Israeli-occupied border zone, its first volley since the ceasefire began, saying it was a "warning" in response to Israel’s violations. Israel responded with its heaviest barrage of the past week, killing 10 people. After the attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Hezbollah of a "serious violation" and vowed to "respond forcefully". Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz also vowed a "harsh response". Al-Joumhouria said that the U.S. had reportedly intervened Monday, preventing Israel from harshly responding to Hezbollah's warning attack on Shebaa, which could have been a strike in the heart of the capital Beirut. On Tuesday, drone strikes hit four places in southern Lebanon, one of them killing a person in the Shebaa Farms. With Tuesday’s death, Israeli strikes since the ceasefire began have killed at least 15 people.

Despite a wary ceasefire with Hezbollah, Israel has much to celebrate - opinion
Jerusalem Post/December 04/2024
Let’s celebrate our heroic soldiers and resilient reservists, Israel’s unbelievable intelligence community, the IDF high command, and Netanyahu’s resolute leadership.
As Israel’s wary ceasefire with Hezbollah continues, there is only one path to success. Israel must break its pattern of indulgence, allowing diplomatic agreements to die amid a thousand infractions, as each little attack seems not worth triggering international opprobrium. And the US must support Israel aggressively, bullying the international community into allowing Israel to punish any violations, no matter how minor. It happened during Oslo. It happened after America promised that the Gaza Disengagement would include a zero-tolerance policy for any violence from anywhere in the Strip. And it happened after the 2006 Hezbollah War. UN Security Council 1701 supposedly guaranteed peace in Southern Lebanon, with no armed forces other than the Lebanese Army rearming. Yet the Palestinian Authority, Hamas, Hezbollah, chipped away at the agreements, and Israel kept indulging them – until disaster struck. This time, after Hamas invaded on October 7 – then Hezbollah joined and then the Houthis and other Iranian proxies bombed from afar, until Iran, finally and predictably, unleashed two unprecedented missile attacks – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the IDF, the Americans, and the ever-feckless international community should have wised up. The ceasefire will only last if Israel’s 80,000 northern evacuees can return home and rebuild, while Hezbollah terrorists avoid Southern Lebanon, knowing they’ll be crushed if they dare return.

The Hezbollah threat: Weakened, but not gone – opinion
Jerusalem Post/December 04/2024
Israel has reduced Hezbollah’s fighting capabilities to such an extent that many don’t understand why it would agree to stop when the terror group has been reduced to a pile of rubble. ‘Why doesn’t Israel just finish the job?” This is the question everyone has been asking since Israel announced its agreement to a US-brokered ceasefire with Lebanon after 416 days of cross-border fighting. Israel has reduced Hezbollah’s fighting capabilities to such an extent that many don’t understand why it would agree to stop when the terror group has been reduced to a pile of rubble. The current agreement serves as a framework for a long-term ceasefire in which the Lebanese army and the government of Lebanon (along with UNIFIL) will be the only armed groups south of the Litani River. This effectively establishes a buffer zone to inhibit Hezbollah and other armed groups from attacking Israel. Any rational observer knows that Israel cannot trust Hezbollah or any international body to control Hezbollah’s actions. Indeed, Lebanon has been unsuccessful in binding Hezbollah to its will. So, what is the rationale behind this agreement, and why does Israel believe this is the right move for its security? The reason is simple: Israel’s primary goal was to neutralize Hezbollah as a strategic threat, which it has largely accomplished. Demanding that Israel “finish the job” by fully eradicating the terror group would require Israel to take over Lebanon – an outcome Israel does not desire.

Blinken: Ceasefire oversight mechanism 'is working'
Jerusalem Post/December 04/2024
Blinken said he would not speculate about "what's going to happen in the future" and that he can only talk about the clear interests of the parties. Fundamentally, both Lebanon and Israel want to continue the ceasefire, according to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who addressed reporters on Wednesday afternoon during a NATO news conference in Brussels. Blinken indicated the oversight mechanism operated by France and the US is operating as intended to assess allegations of violations. He declined to respond to "any private diplomatic conversations" between the US, France, Israel, and Hezbollah regarding possible violations. "All I can tell you is the mechanism that we established with France to make sure that the ceasefire is effectively monitored and implemented is working, and we want to make sure it continues to work," Blinken said. However, Blinken did not directly respond to a question about Defense Minister Israel Katz's comment on Tuesday in which he said the IDF would be "more ready to strike non-Hezbollah Lebanese targets" should the ceasefire fail. Instead, the secretary said he thinks Israelis recognize from their history that the best way to have enduring security is through a ceasefire. "But we have to make sure that it's upheld," Blinken said. "And we're determined to do that."
Not speculating about the future
Blinken said he would not speculate about "what's going to happen in the future" and that he can only talk about the clear interests of the parties: Israel is interested in making sure the terms of the ceasefire are fully implemented by Hezbollah, including moving Hezbollah back to the north. Israel's interests include making sure the Lebanese Armed Forces are effectively deployed along the border and that they have the authority to deal with arms and infrastructure that they find. "That's where we are. I'm again very focused on making sure that we carry forward," Blinken said. "Let's see where we are after the initial 60 days."

Trump administration to focus on hostages, Iran nuclear deal, says new Middle East adviser
Jerusalem Post/December 04/2024
"The president believes that the hostages must be released immediately and that there must be no further delay," Boulos told Le Point. The first priority for the Trump administration will be the immediate release of the hostages with no further delay, President-elect Donald Trump's newly-appointed Middle East adviser, Massad Boulos, told French paper Le Point in an exclusive interview. Boulos added that while the release of the hostages should be separate from issues relating to the future of Gaza, a hostage deal should come within the framework of a temporary ceasefire. “The president believes that the hostages must be released immediately and that there must be no further delay,” he told Le Point. “According to him, their fate should not be linked to other issues related to the day after in Gaza.Several countries are currently helping to achieve this goal, whether it is Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, or even Turkey.”However, Boulos stressed that Turkey should not replace Qatar’s role as mediator but that it did have influence over Hamas’s decision-making, given it now houses the terror group’s key officials.

Lebanese Army Deploys South as Israel Withdraws from Border Villages
Asharq Al Awsat/December 04/2024
Tensions remain high on Lebanon's southern border, with Israel continuing to violate the ceasefire daily. Efforts are underway, both within Lebanon and internationally, to prevent another war. Meanwhile, the Lebanese Army is completing its deployment in the south as Israeli forces pull out of villages they had entered. Lebanese officials are hopeful for calm and expect all parties to stick to the agreement. The monitoring committee is set to begin its work soon, with the French general arriving on Wednesday, following the American general who will lead the committee. Their first meeting will be on Thursday, according to military sources. As Israel began pulling out its troops and equipment from villages in southern Lebanon, Lebanon’s National News Agency reported on Tuesday that the Lebanese Army had stepped up its presence in Tyre and nearby areas to ensure security.
This marks the start of the Army’s redeployment in the south, especially in border villages. The Lebanese Army also announced it is recruiting volunteers to strengthen its forces in the south and help implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701 after the ceasefire. The ceasefire agreement calls for a 60-day truce, during which Israel is expected to withdraw from the southern villages. Hezbollah is required to end its armed presence south of the Litani River, where 10,000 Lebanese soldiers and UN peacekeepers (UNIFIL) will be deployed. Tensions, however, eased on Tuesday along Lebanon's southern border after a sharp escalation between Hezbollah and Israel on Monday evening. Nevertheless, Israeli violations continued, with over 80 breaches recorded by the Lebanese Army in the past week. On Tuesday, Israeli shelling killed a civilian in Shebaa, with the National News Agency reporting the man was struck by a missile from an Israeli drone. An artillery shell also hit the Marjayoun Plain, and an Israeli Merkava tank crossed into the area near the border between Deir Mimas, Burj al-Mulouk, and Kfarkila in the south, stopping 200 meters from a Lebanese Army checkpoint. Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV reported a convoy of 15 Israeli vehicles moved from the Wazzani border area toward Wadi al-Khayam, with part of the convoy heading towards the eastern part of Khiam. This followed reports that Israeli vehicles had withdrawn from eastern Khiam on Monday. Israel also launched airstrikes on the town of Bayt Lifa in southern Lebanon and fired machine guns at Majdal Zoun. In response, the Israeli military said it targeted a terrorist cell in the Bekaa Valley. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned on Monday that Israel might push deeper into Lebanon and no longer differentiate between the Lebanese state and Hezbollah if the ceasefire breaks down. Katz stated, “If the ceasefire collapses, Lebanon will have no immunity,” adding that Israel would act with greater force if the war resumes.

Deadly Israeli Strike in Lebanon Further Shakes Tenuous Ceasefire
Asharq Al Awsat/December 04/2024
Israeli forces carried out several new drone and artillery strikes in Lebanon on Tuesday, including a deadly strike that the Health Ministry and state media said killed one person, further shaking a tenuous ceasefire meant to end more than a year of fighting with Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed keep striking “with an iron fist” against perceived Hezbollah violations of the truce. His defense minister warned that if the ceasefire collapses, Israel will target not just Hezbollah but the Lebanese state — an expansion of Israel’s campaign. Israel also carried out an airstrike in Syria, saying it killed a senior member of Hezbollah responsible for coordinating with Syria’s army on rearming and resupplying the Lebanese militant group. Israel has repeatedly hit Hezbollah targets in Syria, but Tuesday's attack was a rare public acknowledgement. Syrian state media reported that an Israeli drone strike hit a car in a suburb of the capital Damascus, killing one person. Since the two-month ceasefire in Lebanon began last Wednesday, the US- and French-brokered deal has been rattled by near daily Israeli attacks, although Israel has been vague about the purported Hezbollah violations that prompted them.
On Monday, it was shaken by its biggest test yet. Hezbollah fired two projectiles toward an Israeli-held disputed border zone, its first volley since the ceasefire began, saying it was a “warning” in response to Israel’s strikes. Israel responded with its heaviest barrage of the past week, killing 10 people. On Tuesday, drone strikes hit four places in southern Lebanon, one of them killing a person in the town of Shebaa, the state-run National News Agency said. The Health Ministry confirmed the death, The Associated Press reported. Asked about the strike, the Israeli military said its aircraft struck a Hezbollah militant who posed a threat to troops. Shebaa is situated within a region of border villages where the Israeli military has warned Lebanese civilians not to return, with Israeli troops still present. Israeli forces fired an artillery shell at one location and opened fire with small arms toward a town, the news agency reported.
With Tuesday’s death, Israeli strikes since the ceasefire began have killed at least 15 people. Under the terms of the ceasefire, Hezbollah is supposed to withdraw its fighters, weapons and infrastructure from a broad swath of the south by the end of the initial 60-day phase, pulling them north of the Litani River. Israeli troops are also to pull back to their side of the border.

Adraee: Israeli Operations Are Still Ongoing
This is Beirut/December 04/2024
Israeli army spokesperson Avichay Adraee asserted that the Israeli army “still fights” Hezbollah actions that violate the ceasefire agreement. He declared that the air force, acting under the leadership of the Northern Command, had attacked a rocket launcher in the Majdal Zoun region of South Lebanon, in a post on X on Wednesday.Additionally, according to Adraee, the Israeli army “destroyed weapons found in the areas of Khiam, Souaneh, and Aitaroun in southern Lebanon.”The Israeli army, he claimed, is “deployed in southern Lebanon, committed to the ceasefire agreement, and works against any threat that jeopardizes the State of Israel.”

Hezbollah aims to rebuild longer term despite Israeli blows, US intel says
Reuters/December 04/2024
Despite losses to Israel, Hezbollah looks to rearm via Syria, posing future threats, say US and Israeli officials. Lebanon's Hezbollah has been significantly degraded militarily by Israel, but the Iran-backed group will likely try to rebuild its stockpiles and forces and pose a long-term threat to the US and its regional allies, four sources briefed on updated US intelligence told Reuters. US intelligence agencies assessed in recent weeks that Hezbollah, even amid Israel's military campaign, had begun to recruit new fighters and was trying to find ways to rearm through domestic production and by smuggling materials through Syria, said a senior US official, an Israeli official, and two US lawmakers briefed on the intelligence, speaking on condition of anonymity. It's unclear to what extent those efforts have slowed since last week when Hezbollah and Israel reached a shaky ceasefire, two of the sources said. The deal specifically prohibits Hezbollah from procuring weapons or weapons parts. In recent days, Israel has tried to undercut Hezbollah's ability to rebuild its military forces, striking several Hezbollah rocket launchers in Lebanon, bombing border crossings with Syria, and blocking an Iranian aircraft suspected of ferrying weapons for the group. US intelligence agencies assess that Hezbollah is operating with limited firepower. It has lost more than half its weapons stockpiles and thousands of fighters during the conflict with Israel, reducing Tehran's overall military capacity to its lowest point in decades, according to the intelligence. Hezbollah will try to rebuild
But Hezbollah has not been destroyed. It still maintains thousands of short-range rockets in Lebanon, and it will try to rebuild using weapons factories in neighboring countries with available transport routes, the sources said.
One of the lawmakers said Hezbollah has been "knocked back" in the short term and had its ability to conduct command and control reduced. But the lawmaker added: "This organization is designed to be disrupted." US officials are concerned about Hezbollah's access to Syria, where Syrian rebels recently launched an offensive to retake government strongholds in Aleppo and Hama. Hezbollah has long used Syria as a safe haven and transport hub, taking military equipment and weapons from Iraq, through Syria and into Lebanon through the rugged border crossings.
Washington is trying to pressure Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to limit Hezbollah's operations, enlisting other countries in the region to help, a senior US official said. Reuters reported on Monday that the US and the United Arab Emirates have discussed possibly lifting sanctions on Assad if he peels himself away from Iran and cuts off weapons routes to Hezbollah. Hezbollah officials have said the group will continue to function as a "resistance" against Israel, but its secretary general Naim Qassem has not brought up the group's weapons in recent speeches, including after the ceasefire was reached. Sources in Lebanon say Hezbollah's priority is rebuilding homes for its constituency after Israeli strikes destroyed swaths of Lebanon's south and the southern suburbs of Beirut. The US National Security Council and the Office of the Director for National Intelligence declined to comment on the updated US intelligence.
Training challenges
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said last week that Hezbollah had not been weakened by Israel's killing of many of its leaders since January and by its ground assault against the group since early October. He said Hezbollah had been able to reorganize and fight back effectively.
However, US intelligence indicates that Israel has taken out thousands of Hezbollah's missiles in Lebanon, pushing cadres of its fighters back from the border with Israel, the sources told Reuters. While tracking the exact number of Hezbollah fighters remains a challenge, the intelligence notes that the group will likely face significant training challenges for years to come, the sources said. US officials say Hezbollah's breakdown points to a growing gap in Iran's military capacity and raises doubts about its ability to use its proxies to attack Israel and its other adversaries in the short term. Iran also backs Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip and the Houthi group in Yemen. In the past, had Israel considered bombing Iran, it faced the prospect of Hezbollah in Lebanon reciprocating, said a second US official, but with Hezbollah weakened, Israel can attack Iran directly without the same threat to its north.
In Gaza, US intelligence indicates Hamas can only sustain small, guerrilla-style tactics after having lost at least half of its fighters. The Houthis continue to launch missiles and drones from Yemen, but the US has been able to intercept most.
The updated US intelligence - briefed to senior officials and lawmakers in recent weeks - emerges ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump's Jan. 20 inauguration. The US charged an Iranian man last month in connection with an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate Trump. Iran has rejected the accusation.
During his first term in office, Trump embraced a "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran, imposing harsh sanctions on Tehran, its military complex, and its most lucrative economic sectors. Trump, in 2018, pulled the US out of a 2015 international agreement meant to deny Tehran the ability to build nuclear weapons. In 2020, Trump was responsible for a strike in Iraq that killed top Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani.

Lebanon Question Its Commitment To The Ceasefire Agreement With Israel
MEMRI/December 4, 2024
Alongside the relief felt in Lebanon over the ceasefire agreement signed after more than a year of fighting between Israel and Hizbullah, there is also growing concern that, based on past experience, Hizbullah is unlikely to honor the agreement, which requires it to disarm and to dismantle its military infrastructure. Several columnists, primarily opponents of Hizbullah, said that the organization, which is not a signatory to the agreement, has not declared its willingness to give up its weapons and will not take any action to implement the agreement. They argued further that the agreement ignores the root of the problem, which is Iran's influence and Hizbullah's weapons north of the Litani River, which may now be turned against Hizbullah's opponents in the country, as has happened in the past. They also asserted that Hizbullah will not conceivably accept the role of the U.S. and France in ensuring compliance with the agreement, since it was behind the October 1983 Beirut barracks bombings, in which targeted American and French members of a multinational peacekeeping force.
It should be noted that, according to the document published by the U.S. and France on November 26, 2024, Israel and Lebanon are committed to implementing United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 and previous UNSC resolutions calling for the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon. These resolutions are not specified, but the reference is apparently to Resolution 1559 from 2004, which calls for all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias in the country to be disarmed and dismantled, and Resolution 1680 from 2006, which urges the Lebanese government to implement Resolution 1559 and to act to prevent weapons from entering the country.[1]
The document also states that, apart from UNIFIL, the Lebanese military and security forces will be the only armed organization south of the Litani River, effectively requiring Hizbullah to withdraw its armed forces to the north, beyond the Litani. In addition, Lebanese military and security forces are required to dismantle any unauthorized military infrastructure and weapons, first south of the Litani and subsequently in the rest of Lebanon.
These concerns on the part of Hizbullah opponents are not unfounded. Several Hizbullah officials have said that the organization has no intention of disarming. For example, Hizbullah MP Hassan Fadhlallah said: "I am from the south. We are rooted in that land. The resistance fighters are in the south. We have no military bases, we have no [external] military [features]… In the case of war, some of the [military] equipment is sent to the south…" On the subject of the ceasefire, Fadhlallah said: "This is not an agreement, but rather measures. There was no signing [of any document], there are [just] understandings… The government is the one that agreed…" Fadhlallah insisted on Hizbullah's right to retain its military capabilities, saying: "[The legitimacy] of the weapons of the resistance and its rights are rooted, first and foremost, in human rights, in the international conventions... in the Taif Agreement[2]… in the government statements that made the right to resistance a constitutional practice… [and] in our right to defend ourselves. If Israel attacks our country… we will fight and resist. This is our human right…"[3]
The following are translated excerpts from statements by Hizbullah's opponents in Lebanon questioning its commitment to the ceasefire.
The Agreement Is Fragile; Hizbullah Interprets It As It Pleases
Khairallah Khairallah, a Lebanese columnist for the Emirati daily Al-Arab, wrote: "So far, there is no indication that Hizbullah wants to implement Resolution 1701... It is clear that nothing has changed from its perspective... Anyone who reads the text of Resolution 1701, adopted in August 2006, can see that it is aimed mainly at creating a zone free of Hizbullah's weapons in South Lebanon, [but] so far, Hizbullah has not declared its willingness to hand over its weapons to the state. Hizbullah reads the ceasefire document through its own eyes, [i.e., from the perspective of] the Iranian agenda. It still refuses to read the text of the resolution [properly] and believes that nothing has changed since 2006..."
Khairallah expressed concern that Hizbullah would exploit the weakness of Lebanon's state institutions and of other elements in the country to turn its weapons against its opponents. He warned that Hizbullah's positions render the ceasefire agreement fragile despite the American sponsorship and guarantees, and concluded: "Now that Lebanon's latest war has ended, we will discover whether the state can continue to exist while Hizbullah retains its weapons, weapons that the 'Islamic Republic' [of Iran] has entrusted with a new role and which the state is unable to control despite the good intentions of acting Prime Minister Najib Mikati..."[4]
Past Experience Indicates That Hizbullah Does Not Honor Its Commitments
Journalist Marianne Zouein wrote in the Nida Al-Watan daily that Hizbullah has been violating its commitments for years, so it cannot be trusted this time either. She wrote: "How can you believe someone who excels at committing to not committing? [Hizbullah] makes a commitment in the media and then emerges from its tunnels with a completely different agenda, written with the ink of its own interests and those of Iran..."
Past experience, Zouein added, shows that Hizbullah does not honor the agreements it signs. For example, it avoided complying with the 1989 Taif Agreement, which required all the militias to surrender their weapons. It claimed to be exempt from this requirement because it had a "sacred mission" to fight the Israeli occupation of South Lebanon. But even after Israel withdrew in 2000, Hizbullah did not declare its mission complete but rather invented new excuses to keep its weapons, said Zouein. Then, in 2006, the organization promised to "keep quiet during the summer," but a few months later it kidnapped two Israeli soldiers, thereby triggering the July 2006 war. It also violated UN Security Council Resolution 1701, even though it committed to it, on the grounds that the Lebanese army was incapable of defending the country. In 2012, the organization violated its promise not to intervene in regional conflicts by becoming involved in the Syrian civil war.
Zouein concluded: "Today, after the latest ceasefire [agreement has been signed], we hear statements like those of [Hizbullah] MP Hassan Fadhlallah, who stressed that Hizbullah's men will stay in the South for purposes of self-defense and will be supplied with weapons as necessary[5] -- although the latest ceasefire agreement, which they applauded, assigns this mission [of Lebanese self-defense] solely to the army… Hizbullah does not suffice with avoiding commitments. It makes a joke of its promises."[6]
Hizbullah, Which Was Responsible For Targeting U.S. And French Servicemen In 1983, Will Not Accept American-French Patronage
Nida Al-Watan columnist Najem Al-Hashem called to liberate Lebanon from the control of Hizbullah, which has indicated that it will not necessarily honor the ceasefire agreement. He wrote: "There is no evidence that Hizbullah will commit to implementing its November 27 ceasefire agreement with Israel. Indications that accompany the organization's behavior and its political and military discourse suggest that it [regards itself] as external to this agreement and that it is not interested in it. It will not implement the agreement, since it is not the one that signed it. It will not give up its weapons or its military arsenal. There is no force, Lebanese or non-Lebanese, that can impose this commitment on it, in the absence of a clear political decision that chooses this option in order to wrest the state's decision[-making] from Hizbullah's control...
"Hizbullah has directly indicated that it is not committed to implementing [the agreement]. [This is clear] from the actions of its members and some of its officials on the ground, from the Dahieh [in Beirut] to the [area] south of the Litani River and up to the border fence [with Israel]... Past experience proves that Hizbullah... will not be committed to the provisions of the latest ceasefire agreement.
"Hizbullah was the one responsible for targeting the U.S. and French forces in 1983, so it will not conceivably agree to let the U.S. and France guarantee the implementation of this agreement… Nor will it agree to give up its weapons as long as it remains subordinate to the Rule of the Jurisprudent [i.e., the Iranian regime]. Even if Hizbullah empowered [Lebanese Parliament] Speaker [Nabih] Berri to negotiate [the ceasefire on its behalf], it did not empower him to decide that it would give up its weapons…
"After every confrontation… Hizbullah declares that it is invincible, that Allah grants it victory, and that its men are servants of Allah who fight out of religious faith in disregard of their national identity and of the Lebanese decisions and Lebanese authorities. They see the authorities and the Lebanese army as nothing more than a means to further their interests. Hassan Nasrallah continues to lead this organization from the grave. The only way to break this vicious cycle, through which Hizbullah takes Lebanon hostage, is to liberate the state from Hizbullah's control…"[7]
[1] See: Digitallibrary.un.org, accessed December 4, 2024
[2] The Taif Agreement, signed on October 22, 1989, brought an end to the Lebanese Civil War. It implemented major political reforms and redistributed power amongst Lebanon’s religious sects by establishing a new order of political, civil, and military authorities based on sectarian criteria. The agreement also ordered the dismantlement of all “Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias, and the transfer of their weapons to the Lebanese state.” See: Presidency.gov.lb, accessed December 3, 2024.
[3] Instagram.com/aljadeednews, November 29, 2024.
[4] Al-Arab (London), November 29, 2024.
[5] This is apparently a reference to Fadhlallah’s aforementioned statement from November 29.
[6] Nida Al-Watan (Lebanon), November 30, 2024.
[7] Nida Al-Watan (Lebanon), November 29, 2024.

Arabs No Longer Buying the Lies of Hamas, Hezbollah
Bassam Tawil/ Gatestone Institute./December 04/2024
"Where is the victory? How much did it cost? What defeat is more terrible than such losses? How can one claim victory in the face of a massacre that has destroyed all the logic of resistance? It's not too late to ask Hezbollah to explain its unilateral and deadly decision to open the confrontation [with Israel] under Iran's cover." — Nabil Bou Monsef, prominent Lebanese journalist, kataeb.org, November 27, 2024.
Over the past 14 months, Hamas and Hezbollah have dragged the Palestinians and Lebanese into wars that have claimed the lives of thousands of people -- all to serve their patrons in Iran. Instead of admitting their defeat, both in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, the terrorists, at the behest of Iran's mullahs, are continuing to sell imaginary victories to the Arabs to encourage them to join the Jihad (holy war) against Israel.
Hamas and Hezbollah have dragged the Palestinians and Lebanese into wars that have claimed the lives of thousands of people -- all to serve their patrons in Iran. Instead of admitting their defeat, both in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, the terrorists continue to sell imaginary victories.
After the recent ceasefire deal with Israel, supporters of the Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah claimed "victory." Some celebrated the alleged victory by firing guns into the air and flashing V signs. Many Arabs, however, saying that Hezbollah had lost hundreds of its members, including top leaders, and caused significant damage to Lebanese homes and the country's economy, have been mocking the terrorist group.
Hezbollah's hasty declaration of "victory" is similar to that of Hamas, Iran's Palestinian terrorist proxy in the Gaza Strip. After earlier rounds of fighting with Israel that severely damaged the Gaza Strip's civilian and military infrastructure, Hamas commanders would typically emerge from the debris and proclaim "victory."
Like Hezbollah, many Palestinians and Arabs mocked Hamas for its fake wins. Even now, Hamas continues to pretend that it is winning the war, which began when the terrorist group invaded Israel on October 7, 2023, murdering 1,200 Israelis, many of whom were tortured, burned alive or beheaded. Countless others were raped, and 240 were kidnapped to the Gaza Strip, where 101 – many of whom are dead -- are still held captive.
Commenting on Hamas's claim of "victory," Egyptian political analyst Abdul Latif Al-Manawi wrote:
"I was not surprised when [Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal] announced Hamas's victory in the Gaza war. He said: 'Our losses are tactical, our enemy's losses are strategic, and victory is coming.' Is this how Mashaal sums up a whole year of devastation inflicted on the Palestinian people? If Mashaal means what he says, we have to ask him: Do the tactical losses he refers to include the war victims who have reached more than 42,000 Palestinians? Do they include more than 80,000 [Palestinians] who were injured? Do they include more than 90% of the Gaza Strip's population who have been displaced from their homes and neighborhoods that were razed to the ground? Victory, Khaled Mashaal, is not like this. Victory is realizing the extent of your power, and using it at the right time and in the right way. Victory is not bringing back the era of illusory speeches and false victories."
Hezbollah declared war on Israel the day after the October 7 atrocities committed by Hamas terrorists, and thousands of "ordinary" Palestinians, against Israelis living near the border with the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah leaders said then that they would stop their rocket and drone attacks against Israel only if it ended the war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. They also said that they would not withdraw their terrorists north of the Litani River in southern Lebanon.
The ceasefire agreement, reached on November 27, stipulates that Hezbollah, or any other armed group in Lebanon, will not carry out any offensive action against Israel, regardless of the situation in the Gaza Strip. The agreement also requires Hezbollah terrorists to withdraw to the north of the Litani River. Hezbollah, in other words, has agreed to disconnect itself from the war in the Gaza Strip and to withdraw its men from the border with Israel.
This reversal is precisely why many Arabs cannot understand Hezbollah's claim of "victory," especially in light of the elimination of most of the group's top political and military leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah, killed by an Israeli airstrike on his bunker in Beirut last September.
Prominent Lebanese journalist Nabil Bou Monsef scoffed at Hezbollah's false victory and pointed out that the war the group brought on Lebanon has caused terrifying scenes of destruction. He accused Hezbollah of engaging in self-delusion, linking Lebanon to regional arenas (the Gaza Strip) and "throwing Lebanon into a catastrophic massacre."
"Where is the victory?" Bou Monsef asked.
"How much did it cost? What defeat is more terrible than such losses? How can one claim victory in the face of a massacre that has destroyed all the logic of resistance? It's not too late to ask Hezbollah to explain its unilateral and deadly decision to open the confrontation [with Israel] under Iran's cover."
Further reactions of Arabs to Hezbollah's purported victory include:
Tunisian philosopher Khaled Mansour:
"Hezbollah's claim of victory over Israel is a farce and a mockery of the minds of the Lebanese and a 'political shamelessness' that is both laughable and disgusting!"
Lebanese student Lina al-Bayati:
"Hezbollah: We achieved victory over the enemy. The party was uprooted from its roots, not a single one of them remains. Where is the victory? No one knows."
Lebanese lawyer Omar El-Yafi:
"This is the text of Hezbollah's surrender that the Lebanese state agreed to, which stipulated that there would be no weapons on Lebanese territory except in the hands of the Lebanese army, in addition to other conditions, including the withdrawal of Hezbollah elements to the north of the Litani River. Where is the divine victory that these victors celebrate?"
Egyptian political analyst Subhi Ibrahim:
"The worst defeat for Hezbollah militias in the black history of destruction and thousands of deaths, and yet, with all impudence, some of its supporters raise banners and the victory sign!!! Where are you, you shameless folks???"
Lebanese social media activist Fouad Tarabay:
"Despite the killing of [Hassan] Nasrallah and most of the leaders of Hezbollah, 3,500 dead, 20 billion in material losses, 1.5 million displaced, and 46,000 housing units destroyed, they (Hezbollah) still say 'we won.' They fire their guns in celebration and raise the victory sign after the humiliating ceasefire agreement. What a complete farce and deception."
Saudi writer Imad al-Rimal:
"Hezbollah celebrates victory just as Saddam Hussein celebrated his victory in Kuwait [in 1990]. Hezbollah will hold a victory demonstration in Lebanon, with the funeral of Hassan Nasrallah. It doesn't matter how many were killed, what was destroyed, or the crushing defeat. What matters is that the minds of the flocks of sheep that follow Hezbollah remain in a state of denial of the reality."
Social media user Abu Al-Ahrar:
"What kind of victory are you talking about? This is considered a defeat. Hezbollah rose up to support Gaza and said it will not stop until the siege on Gaza is lifted. How is this victory when Israel has eliminated all the leadership of Hezbollah? This is not called victory, but defeat."
Iraqi political activist Tamara Alkhazarji:
"After the surrender: Hezbollah supporters roam the streets, raising pictures of Hassan Nasrallah, as a way of expressing the joy of victory, as they believe. This is the case of totalitarian parties in the Middle East, where they try to promote every defeat as a crushing and historic victory for them."
Yemeni politician Ali Albukhaiti:
"Hezbollah has surrendered, yet there are those who call it a victory!
"Rather, [the ceasefire] was done on Israel's terms, not Hezbollah's terms:
- Hezbollah's withdrawal to the north of the Litani River.
- Disengagement from Gaza.
- The presence of international supervision south of the Litani River.
- Lebanese army control of the border.
"Were these Hezbollah's conditions or Israel's conditions? What happened was almost a surrender by Hezbollah, while saving face."
Clearly, many Arabs are no longer fooled by the lies and propaganda of Iran's terror proxies in the Middle East. Over the past 14 months, Hamas and Hezbollah have dragged the Palestinians and Lebanese into wars that have claimed the lives of thousands of people -- all to serve their patrons in Iran. Instead of admitting their defeat, both in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, the terrorists, at the behest of Iran's mullahs, are continuing to sell imaginary victories to the Arabs to encourage them to join the Jihad (holy war) against Israel. The good news is that many Arabs are evidently aware of the lies and deceptions of Hamas and Hezbollah.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East. His work is made possible through the generous donation of a couple of donors who wished to remain anonymous. Gatestone is most grateful.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/21168/hamas-hezbollah-lies

Lebanon Charity Picks up Pieces after Israeli Bombing
Asharq Al Awsat/December 04/2024
Near gaping holes where walls used to be, workers at a center for women and children in south Beirut assess the damage after a nearby Israeli strike devastated their facility. It's "going to take us a lot to have our center running again", said Zeina Mohanna from Lebanese charity Amel Association International, lamenting the space had ended up as "collateral damage". She said she was "astonished" at the extent of the destruction after the strike hit the building across the street in south Beirut's impoverished Hay al-Sellom neighbourhood.In late September, the Israeli army began heavily bombing Beirut's southern suburbs, normally a bustling, densely populated urban area where Hezbollah has strong support. Amel, founded during Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war, has been literally picking up the pieces at several of its centers since a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah began last week, after more than a year of hostilities. The Israeli army frequently issued evacuation warnings before the strikes, which it said targeted "Hezbollah facilities and interests". In Amel's center, where illustrations for children decorate brightly colored walls, parts of the ceiling have been blown off and jagged chunks of glass sit precariously in window frames. The words "Dream big" and cut-outs of clouds and butterflies were near the entrance where a woman was mopping up water from a broken pipe, as the sound of glass tinkered on the debris-covered street below.
Al-Qard al-Hassan -
Mohanna said 13 of Amel's 40 centers, which provide social, health and other services nationwide, were damaged in the conflict. The Hay al-Sellom center, an Amel health facility nearby and a space for migrant workers in south Beirut's Shiyah district were impacted when Israeli strikes targeted branches of Al-Qard al-Hassan, she said. A Hezbollah-linked financial firm sanctioned by Washington, Al-Qard al-Hassan was targeted as Israeli army says it "directly funds Hezbollah's terror activities", and warned on October 20 that the military would soon attack the firm's "infrastructure".
It later said it hit nearly 30 targets related to the firm, and conducted further raids the following month. Sokna El Hawli, who runs the Hay al-Sellom center, said around 100 children and 40 women used to go there daily."The night I heard there was a strike near the center... I cried and didn't sleep until morning," said Hawli, fighting back fresh tears. "The people of this area really need this center," said Hawli, herself displaced by the war from her home in the neighborhood.
'Shattered' -
The United Nations condemned the October strikes targeting Al-Qard al-Hassan, saying they caused "extensive damage" to civilian property and infrastructure, while Amnesty International said they should be "investigated as a war crime".Mohanna said the Hay al-Sellom center was home to safe spaces for women victims of gender-based violence and programs for children including one connected to United Nations agency UNICEF. The United Nations condemned the October strikes on the area, saying they caused "extensive damage" to civilian property and infrastructure. The UN agency told AFP that "the re-establishment of safe spaces for children in their community is vital".Mohanna said Amel had officially communicated all its centers' locations to the UN -- "to try to protect" them, she added with chagrin. A few kilometres (miles) away in south Beirut's Shiyah, people were checking Amel's space for migrant workers, heavily damaged in a strike that flattened another building's Al-Qard al-Hassan branch a couple of doors down. Internal walls were blown apart, broken glass lay everywhere, and the explosion had thrown a neighbour's old-fashioned couch onto the center's debris-strewn balcony. "You feel shattered... We spend most of our time here... this is our home," said Amel worker Nour Khazaal, as photos of happier days sat among the mess. Khazaal, who fled her Shiyah house with her one-year-old baby, expressed optimism Amel's facility would bounce back. "I hope the center will be not only like before, (but) 10 times, 100 times better," she said.

Macron says Syria’s Assad cannot be an agent of Iran while acting against security of Israel and stability of Lebanon
Annahar/December 04, 2024
“We and Saudi Arabia are convinced that a ceasefire is needed in Gaza that enables the liberation of the hostages…and protects the people of Gaza”: Macron
In an exclusive interview with Annahar and Randa Takieddine, French President Emmanuel Macron said recent events show that Syria’s future requires more than normalization with Syrian President Bashar Assad, whom he said cannot be an agent of Iran and act against the security of Israel and the stability of Lebanon. You are making a state visit to Saudi Arabia. What are your expectations in bilateral terms, having recently received a Saudi business delegation, the minister of investment, and the director of Saudi Aramco?
This will be my third visit to Saudi Arabia. The prime minister and crown prince have also visited Paris several times, and we are in regular contact. This state visit is particularly important, however, as it will enhance our relations to a strategic partnership. It comes at a particular time in which Saudi Arabia is swiftly transforming, opening up and diversifying its economy. For France, this will be an opportunity to show our support for Saudi Vision 2030 and the international events Riyadh will be hosting.
I will also be visiting AlUla, which is the jewel of our cultural cooperation. This visit also comes at a critical time of multiple regional and international crises. It will therefore be an opportunity to take initiatives together to foster peace, security and international prosperity. Our two countries have a major role in this respect and can also strengthen ties between this part of the world and Europe, in the spirit of the ambition shown by the recent EU-Gulf Cooperation Council Summit.
Saudi Arabia has an important role in the region. What are your expectations for its involvement in Lebanon and the region? If there is a ceasefire, what role do you think you and Saudi Arabia can play in Lebanon and Gaza?
Strengthening our political dialogue is one of our goals. France and Saudi Arabia share the same commitment to regional security and stability and will work together to find lasting political solutions to crises. That will be at the heart of our discussions with the crown prince. Our efforts to achieve a de-escalation in regional conflicts are aligned, particularly in Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen and Sudan.
We and Saudi Arabia are both convinced that a ceasefire is needed in Gaza that enables the liberation of the hostages, including our two nationals, and of course protects the people of Gaza who are in an unacceptable situation of distress, while allowing humanitarian aid to be delivered. We have been calling for this ceasefire since November, and we have been waiting too long. It must come now, it must be permanent, and it must re-open the prospect of a two-state solution. I welcome the work by Saudi Arabia and its Arab partners in defining an Arab vision for peace, updating the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002 and sketching out a pathway out of the crisis. A credible framework needs to be worked on jointly to achieve a Palestinian state and guarantee Israel’s security. The UN Security Council and everyone who has a role to play must shoulder their responsibilities.
We will not stop calling for the ceasefire in Lebanon. It is essential for all parties — and this goes for both Hezbollah and Israel — to fulfill their obligations. The international community must continue its efforts to support the Lebanese Armed Forces, which are essential to this agreement and to the restoration of Lebanon’s sovereignty, in line with the conference we held in Paris on Oct. 24 this year. Saudi Arabia contributes to Lebanon’s stability and has a role to play in bringing an end to the political crisis. At this crucial time for Lebanon’s future, it is important for us to discuss the reconstruction of the country, as well as the political prospects of the upcoming Jan. 9 session of the Lebanese Parliament with the aim of electing a president. All Lebanese actors must contribute to the solution. Hezbollah must facilitate consensus and foster Lebanese unity.
When will France recognize the Palestinian state?
It is urgent to preserve the two-state solution and the viability of a Palestinian state in the context of increased settlement-building, the measures taken against UNRWA and growing pro-annexation discourse. It is absolutely necessary to offer Palestinians real hope of a better life in an independent state and thus cut short any source of legitimacy for Hamas, which has nothing to offer but violence and destruction. The two peoples, Israelis and Palestinians, must be offered a response to their legitimate aspirations, otherwise the region cannot hope for lasting stability.
The recognition of the Palestinian state must contribute to speeding up the two-state solution, and France is ready. In that spirit, we supported Palestine’s accession to the UN as a fully-fledged member. We have voted for all UN General Assembly resolutions in this regard. For it to happen, recognition must take place in a context that enables a lasting end to the crisis. Alongside Saudi Arabia, we will co-chair a conference to give renewed political momentum to the two-state solution and will work on this in Paris. Will resuming dialogue with Bashar Assad enable the return of Syrian refugees in Lebanon to Syria and control of the Syria-Lebanon border to prevent Iran from rearming Hezbollah? Recent events have clearly shown that Syria’s future needs far more than normalization with Bashar Assad. The Syrian people need unity and hope. Dialogue with the regime is not an end in itself. The fighting in recent months has pushed many refugees, along with a million displaced Lebanese people, onto the roads toward Syria, but the question remains fully open. The Syrian regime must create an environment that enables the safe return of Syrians to their country. I have discussed this recently with my European and Arab counterparts. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees is talking about it with the Syrian regime, which must provide answers. Assad cannot be Iran’s agent and undermine Israel’s security and Lebanon’s stability. What role will France play during this ceasefire? Do you think displaced persons will be able to return to the bombarded southern villages? What role can Saudi Arabia play in the implementation of this ceasefire? France has always stood with Lebanon and the Lebanese people and does so, once again, at this critical moment. The ceasefire agreement follows months of joint diplomatic efforts with the US, and France is contributing to the monitoring mechanism. On Oct. 24, we laid the groundwork for its implementation by holding a conference that raised €1 billion ($1.05 billion) for Lebanon, including €800 million for displaced persons and €200 million for the Lebanese Armed Forces. This effort needs to continue, and France has already decided to deploy additional engineering and mine clearance assets to support the Lebanese army. I will send our army and foreign ministers to Lebanon very soon to work on all these points. Lebanon’s reconstruction will of course be another one of our priorities and will require a sustained international effort. Will you continue talking to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu despite France’s recognition of the International Criminal Court’s decisions? Could France’s independent judiciary itself execute the arrest warrant?
We have always supported international justice. France will fulfill its obligations under international law, in this case and all others. The judiciary’s decisions are totally independent. France talks to everyone, and that is what enables it to play a role in the region. We must be clear-sighted: The region’s crises cannot be resolved without dialogue with the Israeli authorities.

The Hezbollah-Israel Ceasefire and U.S. Leadership: What Comes Next
David Schenker, Hanin Ghaddar, Assaf Orion, Matthew Levitt
The Washington Institute/Dec 4, 2024
Matthew Levitt is the Fromer-Wexler Senior Fellow and director of the Reinhard Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at The Washington Institute.
Brief Analysis
Four experts discuss the agreement’s detailed security provisions, the prospects for successful implementation, and the potential impact on other regional players.
On December 2, The Washington Institute held a virtual Policy Forum with David Schenker, Hanin Ghaddar, Assaf Orion, and Matthew Levitt. Schenker is the Institute’s Taube Senior Fellow and former assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs in the first Trump administration. Ghaddar is the Institute’s Friedmann Senior Fellow and author of Hezbollahland: Mapping Dahiya and Lebanon's Shia Community. Brig. Gen. Orion (Ret.) is the Institute’s Rueven International Fellow and former head of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Strategic Planning Division. Levitt is the Institute’s Fromer-Wexler Senior Fellow and director of its Reinhard Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence. The following is a rapporteur’s summary of their remarks.
*David Schenker
The U.S.-brokered ceasefire that went into effect on November 27 may not hold, but its contents are still noteworthy. The agreement centers on implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which called for the removal of any armed Hezbollah presence south of the Litani River following the 2006 war with Israel. Yet the ceasefire also references Resolution 1559, which stipulated that Hezbollah be disarmed throughout the entire country. Importantly, the Lebanese government is asked to prevent the group from rearming, and Beirut’s obligations to dismantle Hezbollah military infrastructure and confiscate weapons are supposed to “start” south of the Litani but then continue in the north later.
The ceasefire also acknowledges both Israel and Lebanon’s inherent right to self-defense. In addition, a U.S.-Israel side letter reportedly affirms Israel’s right to use military action against any threats that are not addressed by the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) or the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF).
The LAF has most of the manpower and equipment needed to carry out this mission, but the organization has been diminished by Lebanon’s ongoing financial crisis. It may therefore require some foreign support and training for its expanded duties in the south and along Lebanon’s border with Syria. Congress is unlikely to support further U.S. funding for LAF salaries, but other partners could fill the gap, such as Qatar, other Gulf states, or France. The Military Technical Committee for Lebanon (MTC4L), set up by the United States and France, will determine what additional resources are required.
Given the LAF’s two-decade failure to implement Resolution 1701 and its record of collaboration with Hezbollah, the incoming Trump administration should condition future funding on the force’s performance and parcel it out slowly. Since 2005, the U.S. has invested some $3 billion in the LAF. Now is the time for the army to step up and take on the mission of securing Lebanon, even at the risk of confrontation with Hezbollah.
Israel wanted this ceasefire, but Hezbollah needed it—a potentially important distinction to keep in mind as the difficult implementation phase commences. The ceasefire itself might not last, but if Lebanon embraces the associated agreement, it could make some progress toward becoming a sovereign state.
*Hanin Ghaddar
Unlike in 2006, Hezbollah is at its weakest point and cannot afford to go back to war. Its strategy at the moment is to lay low and try to recover, which it seems to view as a multistage process:
Relegitimize its arms. Hezbollah will presumably decry the LAF for allowing Israel to continue conducting airstrikes after the ceasefire with no response. Arguing that the weapons of the “resistance” are Lebanon’s only means of fighting back against Israel, the group will push the next government to relegitimize its possession of military arms by adopting the same loaded phrase that has appeared in past ministerial statements—namely, that Lebanon’s security is based on “the army, the people, and the resistance.”
Restructure its financial system, much of which has been demolished in the war. At minimum, it hopes to cover compensation payments to its members, their families, and other core supporters.
Assess the scope of its military losses and try to rearm.
Work with the Lebanese Shia community to make sure discontent does not surface.
Influence the presidential election, which parliament is currently set to hold on January 9. The group will then try to make sure its favored candidates are chosen in the next round of security appointments.
Yet Hezbollah will face tremendous challenges in carrying out this agenda, having lost credibility, deterrence, most of its strategic weapons and commanders, and any semblance of its past “victory” narrative. As a result, its four pillars of power in Lebanon—strategic weapons, political alliances, money, and the Shia community—are all shaking.
The current financial situation is particularly different from 2006, when Iran flooded Hezbollah with money to cover its wartime losses and the Gulf states took care of Lebanon’s reconstruction. This time, money is not as abundant in Iran, and the Gulf states will no longer help if Hezbollah is still in the picture. The group’s senior commander losses might also affect its role as Iran’s main proxy arm in the region.
In short, Hezbollah has become a liability for the Lebanese, the Shia, and Iran alike. The group is no longer a success story, and it cannot guarantee another “victory” given Israel’s well-demonstrated military and intelligence superiority.
Accordingly, Hezbollah leaders will likely look to Syria as the key to their future strength in Lebanon, for two reasons. First, Syria serves as part of Iran’s “land bridge” to Lebanon. If events in Syria result in this bridge being cut, it would have major implications for the situation in Lebanon. Second, Hezbollah’s partners in Syria—the Assad regime and Iran—still hold a strong hand in the country and remain inextricably tied together. As long as Iran remains in Syria and keeps the land bridge running up to Lebanon’s border, Hezbollah stands a chance of eventually rehabilitating its strength. Without Syria, however, Hezbollah will suffocate in Lebanon—a consideration that should weigh strongly in the minds of those responsible for implementing Resolution 1701.
**Assaf Orion
The ceasefire terms between Israel and Hezbollah now have three layers: Resolution 1701, the new ceasefire agreement, and the side letter with the United States. For Israel, the most important aspect is the self-defense provisions regarding its right to take action against Hezbollah violations. Lebanon asserts that Israel has violated the ceasefire over fifty times, and Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate. Thus far, Washington has not offered any strong protests against Israel’s expanded definition of the right to self-defense, but this issue will likely remain a sensitive one.
Another important issue is the expansion of the tripartite mechanism between UNIFIL, the LAF, and the IDF. It has now become a five-party forum, led by the United States and including France.
A third key issue is defining the phrase “south of the Litani area,” which has been expanded northward near the river bend—a tactical change intended to prevent short-range threats into Israel. All of this will be tested during the agreement’s implementation phase.
Unlike what happened after the 2006 agreement, the United States and like-minded countries must do whatever they can to incentivize the Lebanese government, LAF, and UNIFIL to fulfill their commitments to the new agreement. In the post-October 7 era, Israel will no longer acquiesce to Hezbollah’s buildup of threats and creeping violations. Unlike in 2006, significant IDF units remain on the ground in Lebanon to continue degrading the group’s capabilities. Similarly, Israel is unlikely to watch from the sidelines as Iran’s “axis of resistance” builds up in Syria.
At the same time, the parties need to differentiate between places where the IDF has a presence and places where it does not. One valuable test case would be to apply the implementation mechanism against violations in places where the IDF is not operating.
As for returning evacuated residents to their homes in northern Israel, the government and IDF must ensure strong defenses along the border and resolved responses to any threats. They must also provide strong government support for rebuilding damaged communities, recalibrate public expectations about Lebanon (i.e., no “total victory,” and no IDF-held security buffer inside Lebanon), and establish public trust that October 7 will never happen again.
Indeed, the new ceasefire has many moving parts. Nevertheless, the parties involved are much more experienced this time than in 2006. Israel holds an advantageous negotiating position, and the United States is hopefully committed to pursuing this mission for the long term.
**Matthew Levitt
The Lebanon ceasefire presents new challenges for Hezbollah’s fellow Iranian client Hamas—and, perhaps, new opportunities for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release. With Hezbollah delinking itself from Hamas by agreeing to a Lebanon ceasefire without a parallel one in Gaza, and with Iran stepping back from directly targeting Israel, Hamas now stands alone. Hezbollah’s loss of so many strategic assets is a loss for Iran, and Tehran may now seek to cut its losses with Hamas as well. Moreover, Hamas surely realizes that its strongest point of leverage has a limited shelf life—the hostages are most valuable alive, and many are believed to be frail.
As for next steps, the United States, Turkey, Qatar, and Egypt have embarked on a renewed diplomatic effort, with meetings this past weekend in Cairo. Hamas officials have reportedly departed Qatar for Turkey, following Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s November call for more concerted pressure on Hamas. The group appears to be feeling this pressure and seems eager for movement toward a ceasefire of its own, as it may have signaled by releasing the recent proof-of-life video for Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander.
Hamas also realizes that President-elect Trump has made clear he wants the hostages freed resolved before he takes office, providing further leverage for ceasefire negotiations. With so much unknown during this transition period, Hamas is likely scared that Israel will take Trump’s “hell to pay” statement as license to do whatever it feels is necessary to conclude the war.
Beyond near-term ceasefire diplomacy, the next administration will need to lead an international effort to frustrate Iran’s efforts to rearm and re-fund its proxies. The international community can no longer sit back and consider the region calm when ceasefires take hold and Iran keeps arming terrorist groups to the teeth. The events of the past year—and again in Syria this past week—are proof of this logical fallacy. America’s core allies, including Israel, understand that degrading the capabilities of armed groups is no longer enough. Ultimately, they must address the threats posed by Iran, the malign actor who sponsors so many of these groups.
The past several presidential administrations have sought to pivot away from the Middle East toward Asia. Unfortunately, America’s adversaries get a say in this pivot through their actions. In this sense, threats in the Middle East will continue to vex the incoming Trump administration.
**This summary was prepared by Michelle Fan. The Policy Forum series is made possible through the generosity of the Florence and Robert Kaufman Family.

Chronicle/Joseph Aoun: A Unanimously Respected Leader and a Vote that Doesn't Reflect Reality
This is Beirut/December 04/2024
On November 28, Parliament opted for a package deal that would satisfy the interests of the various parliamentary blocs. All of them? No, because some 47 of the 98 members of Parliament present in the hemicycle opposed the vote, under which the one-year extension of the term of office of the Commander-in-Chief of the Army, Joseph Aoun, was combined with that of the heads of the security apparatus, as well as that of all officers of the rank of brigadier general and above. Favoring the reappointment of the army chief alone, these 47 MPs said no to a deal that in no way reflected the common will. At first glance, the vote, which resulted in 51 votes in favor and 47 against, would appear to reflect a deep division among the elected representatives. However, a closer analysis of the situation reveals that the vote, as organized, does not accurately reflect the support enjoyed by General Joseph Aoun, a universally respected figure and pillar of national stability. Under his leadership, the army remains one of the few – if not the only – of the country's institutions to enjoy unanimous confidence in a deeply divided society. This confidence extends to its commander-in-chief, whose role goes far beyond that of a mere military leader. A symbol of unity and resilience for a country in search of stability, the current commander, whose mandate has been renewed for the second consecutive time (the first dating back to 2023), has managed to maintain the cohesion of the armed forces despite unprecedented security, political, economic and social challenges.
A vote skewed by a global approach
Despite prior discussions between MPs to unify the text, and even though several legislative proposals had previously been put forward by different parliamentary blocs including the Lebanese Forces (LF), National Moderation and Renewal, only two versions of the law were put to the vote. The first concerned only security chiefs; the second included all brigadier generals and higher-ranking officers. The latter was adopted by 51 MPs, including those from Hezbollah, the Amal movement, the National Entente and “former” members of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM). However, it was vetoed by the FL, Kataeb, National Moderation, Renewal and Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), who were unable to unify the various legislative proposals drafted in this direction. The November 28 vote therefore did not allow representatives to vote separately on the various extensions. By grouping the reappointment of the army's commander-in-chief and the heads of the other security and brigade apparatuses in the same vote, parliamentarians were faced with a binary choice, which did not allow them to express a distinct position on each issue. Had the vote focused solely on the renewal of General Joseph Aoun's term of office, the outcome would undoubtedly have been very different. Many MPs, who were in favor of his extension, expressed reservations about other aspects of the overall proposal, which led them to vote against the whole package. While the outcome of Parliament's vote does not reflect the reality of support for the army's commander-in-chief, the fact remains that the country's decision-making processes should be prone to reforms requiring greater transparency and representativeness.

Lebanese Exports: Top Products and Destinations
Christiane Tager/This is Beirut/December 04/2024
Lebanese exports remain a vital pillar of the national economy despite significant challenges. Renowned for its agricultural produce, jewelry and wines, Lebanon continues to maintain a foothold in international markets. Key trading partners include nations in the Middle East, Europe and Africa. However, economic instability and logistical hurdles continue to weigh heavily on the performance of the export sector. In 2023, Lebanon's total exports dropped by 14.3%, declining from $3.5 billion in 2022 to $3 billion. The main export categories were precious metals, such as gold, which made up 25.4% of the total and saw a 1% increase; base metals, at 14.3%, down to 12.3%; electrical machinery and equipment, accounting for 12.9% with a 12.8% rise; agri-food products, representing 12.6% but decreasing by 3.3%; chemicals and pharmaceuticals, contributing 9.9% and falling by 19.8%; and fruits and vegetables, which made up 6.9% and experienced a significant 35% decline. Gold and jewelry remain the most lucrative export categories, accounting for a significant portion of revenue. Lebanese exports are predominantly directed to the United Arab Emirates, which accounts for 19.7% of the total, followed by Turkey (9.8%), Egypt (5.4%), Iraq (5.1%), Switzerland (4.8%) and the United States (4%). France constitutes a minor market with just 1.4%, while the European Union collectively imports 12.9% of Lebanon’s exports. For example, Lebanese jewelry is particularly sought after in Switzerland, while agri-food products enjoy strong demand in Gulf markets.
Significant but limited exports
Lebanon's exports, although notable, are hindered by significant internal economic challenges. These include logistical difficulties, chronic electricity shortages, the multifaceted crisis that has impeded industrial competitiveness, high production costs and dependency on regional markets. To boost and diversify its exports, Lebanon is working to enhance its infrastructure and forge new trade partnerships. However, while Lebanon imports over 85% of its consumer goods – a striking contrast to its export figures – the range of export products has expanded. One surprising addition is animal intestines, which have become a highly lucrative trade for the country. This niche market generates around €30 million annually, with these exports mainly going to the EU, where they are utilized in the production of sausages and medical sutures.

Ceasefire Monitoring Committee: An "Enhanced Complaint Bureau"
Nidal Ayoub/This is Beirut/December 04/2024
This international monitoring committee has not yet been formed, yet the violations of the ceasefire cast doubt on the rationale for its establishment and the validity of its functioning, especially as many fear a resumption of confrontations between Hezbollah and Israel.
However, contrary to the wishes of many Lebanese, it is not within the mandate of this committee to eradicate violations on the ground or confront breaches of the ceasefire, which remains at best fragile, through coercive and repressive actions. Nevertheless, its scope of action goes beyond the confines of strict passive monitoring.
A look back at the past
As stipulated in the agreement, the ceasefire monitoring committee is a developed version of the tripartite observation committee originally set up under Resolution 1701. This allows stakeholders to bypass potential legal obligations and institutional recourse. "So we are starting with a committee that exists legally as stipulated by 1701. This committee, composed of a representatives from the Lebanese army, the Israeli army, and UNIFIL, has been expanded by 'inviting observers,' hence the US chairmanship and French participation," as clarified by informed sources. Due to this "expansion," this committee is now referred to as the "Mechanism."The idea of such an international multiparty committee date back to 1996, following the "Grapes of Wrath" operation—considered a precursor to the wars of 2006 and 2024—which was halted by the "April Understandings." At the time, Syria was among its five components, alongside the United States, France, Lebanon, and Israel.
Composition of the committee
Chaired by the United States, which appointed Major General Jasper Jeffers, the committee includes among its members French Brigadier General Guillaume Ponchin and Lebanese Brigadier General Edgar Lawandos. A brief statement from the US Central Command (Centcom) announced that General Jeffers would initially work alongside US envoy Amos Hochstein while awaiting the appointment of a "civilian and permanent" co-chair. According to informed sources, the teams of collaborators assigned to support the military representatives are not exclusively technical-military but include diplomats who will ensure political-level coordination. In light of the ongoing ceasefire violations, the committee's five members are expected to begin their work within hours at UNIFIL's headquarters in Naqoura, southern Lebanon.
Role of the committee: Observation and... political solicitation
According to these sources, the committee's mission, though officially defined as "the implementation and monitoring of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon," aligns with Amos Hochstein's perspective: "We’ll figure it out as we go," as the procedures for monitoring violations and addressing them are yet to be determined. This will occur when the committee meets at the UN headquarters in Naqoura, where it will establish its office. As stipulated in the ceasefire agreement, the committee is also tasked with "strengthening the capacity and training of the Lebanese Armed Forces to inspect and dismantle unauthorized sites and infrastructures, both surface and underground, confiscate unauthorized weapons, and prevent the presence of unauthorized armed groups."Meanwhile, "UNIFIL will continue its activities within its mandate," according to the terms of the agreement. Practically speaking, as UNIFIL spokesperson Andrea Tenenti stated, this means that UNIFIL does not monitor the ceasefire implementation. "We participate in the meetings of the mechanism for the supervision of the cessation of hostilities and contribute our expertise and input. We remain deployed in southern Lebanon, monitoring and supporting the Lebanese Armed Forces in their deployment in southern Lebanon. We will continue to work towards restoring stability in the south and assisting local communities. As well, we will continue to monitor and report violations of Resolution 1701, not the ceasefire. We are not mandated to do so. It will be up to the Mechanism to handle this," Tenenti said. From there, once information about a violation or violations of Resolution 1701 is transmitted to the "Observation Mechanism," it does not merely "automatically record" the information or "compile a list of violations." Instead, it ensures that the Lebanese army intervenes (e.g., dismantling a detected missile launcher) and follows up on the neutralization of the violation's effects (e.g., confiscation of missiles). This does not mean that the "Mechanism" has "executive power" or the "ability to issue orders" to the Lebanese army or UNIFIL, as noted by the informed source. They added, "But the presence of American and French officers who will liaise between stakeholders—Israel and Lebanon—will ensure the proper implementation of actions taken to limit the presence of weapons south of the Litani River. Due to the American and French presence, political powers can intervene with the governments of the countries involved—be it the US with Israel or France with Lebanon."Thus, it would be a sort of "complaint bureau" allowing the parties to more effectively record their observations of daily violations and address them through political engagement by the two countries (the United States and France), given the involvement of their diplomats. Informed sources emphasize the "political capital" of the "Mechanism," recalling that "in 1996, it was the UN Secretary-General who expressed the international community's position by reporting violations (of the ceasefire). Three days ago, it was President (Emmanuel) Macron... who himself reported violations on the Israeli side."It is also noteworthy that the United States has warned Israel against any violations of the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, with US envoy Amos Hochstein sending a letter to Israel to this effect. The political intervention of the United States and France, under the guise of the monitoring committee, will make all the difference between the failure to implement the ceasefire and the potential success of the proclaimed agreement between Hezbollah and Israel. The establishment of the international monitoring committee could be seen as a necessary step towards a revived truce... until further notice.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 04-05/2024
Israel, US behind weakening of 'Axis of Resistance' in Syria, Iranian army chief says
Seth J. Frantzman and Reuters/Jerusalem Post/December 04/2024
Bagheri further reportedly claimed that Israel and the US had coordinated the rebels' movement in the area. The current situation in Syria has the purpose of weakening Syria and its allies in the Middle East's "Axis of Resistance," Iran's Armed Forces Chief of Staff, Major-General Mohammad Bagheri, said on Tuesday, according to the Islamic Republic's news agency, IRNA. The "Axis of Resistance," also referred to as the "Axis of Evil," is comprised of nations including Iran and Syria, as well as terror organizations such as Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, among others. Bagheri reportedly claimed that Israel and the US had coordinated the rebels' movement in the area. The comments were made in phone calls with Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, Iraqi Major General Yahya Rasool, and Syrian Chief of Staff Abdul Karim Mahmoud Ibrahim, the report noted. The Islamic Republic has reiterated such comments since rebel factions entered Aleppo last week and captured the city. “The new movements of Takfiri-terrorist groups are part of the plot of the US and the illegitimate Zionist regime,” speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, wrote last week on X/Twitter. “After defeating the Zionist regime, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Axis of Resistance will support the Syrian government and people against the new conspiracy like in the past,” he added.
'A broader scheme'
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made similar claims, noting the advance into Aleppo was part of a “broader scheme by the Israeli regime and the United States to destabilize the West Asian region."Led by Islamist Jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the rebels' takeover of Aleppo forced Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime to flee the city. On Tuesday, it was reported that the rebels had reached the vicinity of Hama.
*Seth J. Frantzman and Reuters contributed to this report.

Palestinians accuse Israeli forces of raiding West Bank hospital
AFP/December 04, 2024
NABLUS, Palestinian Territories: The Palestinian health ministry in the occupied West Bank on Wednesday condemned a raid by Israeli forces on a hospital in Nablus and the arrest of an injured patient. Israeli authorities confirmed the raid on Wednesday evening in which they apprehended a Palestinian injured in an Israeli strike the day before. The health ministry in a statement called the raid “a flagrant violation of all international laws and conventions that stipulate the protection of treatment centers and patients.”The detained Palestinian is from near Tubas in the northern West Bank, where he was targeted in an Israeli strike on Tuesday that the Israeli military said killed three other Palestinians. Medical sources confirmed the man’s identity to AFP and that he was injured in the strike. In a joint statement, the Israeli military, the Shin Bet security service and the Israeli police announced that they had arrested the man at a hospital in Nablus. They accused him of being “the third member of a terrorist cell that carried out the shooting attack” at Mehola junction in August in which an Israeli was killed. They also accused him of planning to carry out further attacks and posing “an imminent threat to Israeli civilians.” The Palestinian health ministry called on “international institutions” and the Red Cross to “intervene immediately to stop the occupation’s attacks on treatment centers and staff, demanding immediate protection for the health system and all its components.”The Israeli organizations said: “The security forces will continue to operate wherever necessary to thwart terrorism in the area and to maintain the safety of Israeli civilians.”

Katz: Israel 'can truly advance a hostage deal' as pressure on Hamas ramps up
Jerusalem Post/December 04/2024
In an internal Hamas statement seen by Reuters, Hamas threatened to "neutralize" hostages if Israel were to carry out a hostage rescue operation. Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Wednesday that "there is a chance that this time, we can truly advance a hostage deal" while speaking at the Tel Nof air base, Israeli media reported. At Tel Nof, Katz met with Israel Air Force commander Major-General Tomer Bar and Israel Air Force Chief of Staff Brigadier-General Omer Tishler, along with other senior commanders. Israeli media cited Katz as saying, "This is the ultimate goal that stands before us, and we are working in every way to make this happen." In a recent development, an internal Hamas statement seen by Reuters on Wednesday stated that Hamas said it had information that Israel intended to carry out a hostage rescue operation similar to one conducted in Gaza's Nuseirat camp in June. Hamas says they would 'neutralize' hostages if Israel carried out rescue op. In the statement, Hamas threatened to "neutralize" the captives if such an operation took place, Reuters reported. The internal statement was dated November 22, where Hamas told operatives not to consider any repercussions of following the instructions and said Israel was responsible for the fate of the hostages. It did not say when any Israeli operation was expected to take place.

Trump taps Abraham Accords negotiator Adam Boehler as special envoy for hostage affairs
Hannah Sarisohn/Jerusalem Post/December 04/2024
Adam Boehler previously served as a lead negotiator on the Abraham Accords with Jared Kushner. President-elect Donald Trump named Adam Boehler as his special envoy for hostage affairs in a post on Truth Social on Wednesday. Boehler is a former chief executive officer of the US International Development Finance Corporation, Reuters reported. Boehler was also the lead US negotiator alongside Jared Kushner for the Abraham Accords between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain. He led the normalization talks between Israel and Morrocco. David Friedman, who served as US ambassador to Israel under the first Trump administration, called Boehler a "brilliant guy" in a phone call with The Jerusalem Post shortly after the announcement. "I'm repeating myself now, but he's incredibly smart, very dedicated, very serious, and is very well educated in the Middle East," Friedman said. "He used to come [to Israel] often when I was ambassador. We spent a lot of time together, and I think he's an excellent, excellent choice."According to Friedman, Boehler will be able to develop "certainly, a strategy that's far better than what we've had so far" in order to secure the release of the hostages. Though Friedman declined to say what actions Boehler should take between now and inauguration day for the hostages to be released as those are discussions that "generally need to be done quietly behind the scenes," he said.
'All hell to pay'
The announcement comes after Trump's statement that if the hostages weren't released by his inauguration day in January, there would be "all hell to pay." "Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied History of the United States of America," Trump wrote, adding in a call to release the hostages as soon as possible. Friedman commented on Trump's words, saying he thinks the president-elect means them. "I think the importance of that message is to show how invested the President is in this outcome and how much he cares about it," Friedman said to the Post. "And I think that message was delivered loud and clear."According to Friedman, the reaction of the US under Trump "will be overwhelming" if these hostages are not released. "I'm glad the message was conveyed," he added. "And now I hope that some sanity will prevail among us."Michael Rubin, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, echoed Friedman's sentiment in a statement to the Post. "If Hamas thinks Trump is bluffing, they have another thing coming," Rubin wrote. "Hamas has become accustomed to an elaborate pantomime in which the Biden White House pretends to care about the hostages and Hamas pretends to negotiate in good faith. Trump plays a different game."Hamas may want to test Trump, Rubin added, but the terrorist group will find that they will pay the price. Meanwhile John Hannah, a senior fellow at the Jewish Institute of National Security of America, described Trump's threat as "both ridiculous and constructive at the same time."Ridiculous, Hannah said, in the sense that he threatens to hit those responsible “harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied history of the United States of America.” "C’mon. Harder than an atomic bomb on Nagasaki and Hiroshima? Harder than the fire bombing of Tokyo or Dresden?" according to Hannah's statement. "Difficult to imagine."That said, he continued, it’s entirely plausible to believe that "depending on who he last spoke to or his mood on January 20" Trump might really follow through with "extremely tough actions that far exceed anything the Biden administration ever considered."Hannah said that includes strong military action against not just whatever remains of Hamas but also against Iran. That could also mean "threatening draconian economic sanctions" against other countries Trump views as having fallen short in using their full influence and leverage over Hamas to free the hostages, including U.S. partners in Qatar, Turkey, and even Egypt, he added.  “This is a classic case where even if you can’t take Trump literally, you can’t afford not to take him seriously – especially if you’re a potential target of his wrath," Hannah said. In separate posts, Trump also named Peter Navarro to be senior counselor for trade and manufacturing, Jared Isaacman to lead NASA, and Daniel Driscoll as secretary of the Army.
Jerusalem Post Staff contributed to this report.

Israel Says Deaths of Six Hostages in Gaza Probably Linked to Israeli Strike
Asharq Al Awsat/December 04/2024
The deaths of six Israeli hostages whose bodies were recovered from Gaza in August were probably linked to an Israeli strike near where they were being held, the Israeli military said on Wednesday. "At the time of the strike, the military had no information, not even a suspicion, that the hostages were in the underground compound or its vicinity," the military said in a statement about the investigation into the hostages' deaths."Had such information been available, the strike would not have been carried out."
The statement said it was "highly probable that their deaths were related to the strike near the location where they were held," although the precise circumstances were still not clear. The most plausible scenario was that they were shot by fighters around the time of the strike, it said. It was also possible that they had already been killed previously, or that they were shot after they were already dead. "Due to the extended time that had passed, it was not possible to determine clearly the cause of the death of hostages or the exact timing of the gunfire."The Hostages and Missing Families Forum Headquarters, which advocates for the return of more than 100 Israeli and foreign hostages still believed held in Gaza, said the findings "serve as yet another proof that the lives of hostages face constant, daily danger ... Time is of the essence."Israel launched its campaign in Gaza after Hamas-led fighters attacked Israeli communities across the border on Oct. 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking over 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. Fewer than half of the hostages were freed during the war's only ceasefire, which lasted for a week in Nov. 2023.Israel's military campaign has killed more than 44,500 Palestinians, according to health authorities in Gaza, much of which has been reduced to rubble.

Amnesty report says Israel has committed genocide against Palestinians in Gaza
Stephanie van den Berg/THE HAGUE (Reuters)/December 4, 2024
Amnesty International accused the state of Israel of committing genocide against Palestinians in the Gaza war in a report published on Thursday, an allegation Israeli leaders have repeatedly denied. The London-based human rights group said it reached the conclusion after months of analysing incidents and statements of Israeli officials. Amnesty said the legal threshold for the crime had been met, in its first such determination during an active armed conflict. The 1948 Genocide Convention, enacted in the wake of the mass murder of Jews in the Nazi Holocaust, defines genocide as "acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group". Israel has consistently rejected any accusation of genocide, saying it has respected international law and has a right to defend itself after the cross-border Hamas attack from Gaza on Oct. 7, 2023 that precipitated the war. Israeli officials could not immediately be reached for comment on Amnesty's report. Israel launched its air and ground war in Gaza after Hamas-led fighters attacked Israeli communities across the border 14 months ago, killing 1,200 people and taking over 250 hostages back to Gaza, according to Israeli tallies. Gaza's Health Ministry says that Israel's military campaign since then has killed more than 44,400 Palestinians and injured many others. Palestinian and U.N. officials say there are no safe areas left in Gaza, a tiny, densely populated and heavily built-up coastal territory. Most of Gaza's 2.3 million people have been internally displaced, some as many as 10 times.
At hearings earlier this year before the U.N.'s International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague, where Israel faces accusations of genocide brought by South Africa, lawyers for the country denied the charge. They argued that there was no genocidal intent and no genocide in Israel's conduct of the war, whose stated objective is the eradication of Hamas. Presenting the report to journalists in The Hague, Amnesty International Secretary General Agnes Callamard said the conclusion had not been taken "lightly, politically, or preferentially". She told journalists after the presentation: "There is a genocide being committed. There is no doubt, not one doubt in our mind after six months of in-depth, focused research."Amnesty said it concluded that Israel and the Israeli military committed at least three of the five acts banned by the 1948 Genocide Convention, namely killings, causing serious bodily or mental harm, and deliberately inflicting conditions of life calculated to bring about a protected group's physical destruction. These acts were done with the intent required by the convention, according to Amnesty, which said it reviewed over 100 statements from Israeli officials. Israel's military accuses Hamas of planting militants within populated neighbourhoods for operational cover, which Hamas denies, while accusing Israel of indiscriminate strikes. Callamard said Amnesty had not set out to prove genocide but after reviewing the evidence and statements collectively, she said the only conclusion was that "Israel is intending and has intended to commit genocide". She added: "The assertion that Israel's war in Gaza aims solely to dismantle Hamas and not to physically destroy Palestinians as a national and ethnic group, that assertion simply does not stand up to scrutiny." Amnesty urged the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), which has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his ex-defence minister for war crimes and crimes against humanity against Palestinians in Gaza - charges they deny, to investigate alleged genocide. The office of the prosecutor said in a statement that it is continuing investigations into alleged crimes committed in the Palestinian territories and is unable to provide further comment.

Arab League Reiterates Rejection of Forced Displacement of Gaza Residents
Asharq Al Awsat/December 04/2024
The Arab League reiterated its unequivocal condemnation of Israeli attempts at forced displacement of residents in the Gaza Strip, West Bank, and East Jerusalem, and its ongoing efforts to undermine the refugee issue through the dismantling of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), SPA reported. In a statement marking Arab Expatriate Day, observed annually on December 4, the Arab League's General Secretariat also strongly condemned the Israeli bombardment of Lebanon, which resulted in widespread displacement of individuals, as well as civilian casualties, including among refugees. It emphasized the urgent need to alleviate the suffering of Palestinian refugees and ensure the protection of their right to self-determination and to return to their homes from which they were forcibly displaced, in accordance with international resolutions, particularly United Nations General Assembly Resolution 194 of 1948. It also underscored the importance of supporting UNRWA so that it can address the needs of Palestinian refugees.

Hamas Threatens to 'Neutralize' Hostages if Israel Launches Rescue Operation
Asharq Al Awsat/December 04/2024
Hamas said it had information that Israel intended to carry out a hostage rescue operation similar to one conducted in Gaza's Nuseirat camp in June and threatened to "neutralize" the captives if any such action took place, according to an internal statement seen by Reuters on Wednesday. In the statement dated Nov. 22, Hamas told its operatives not to consider what the repercussions of following the instructions might be and said it held Israel responsible for the fate of the hostages. The statement, which a senior Hamas source told Reuters was circulated to its factions by the intelligence unit of the group's military wing Izz el-Deen al-Qassam Brigades, did not say when any Israeli operation was expected to take place. There was no immediate Israeli response to the statement. On Wednesday, Israeli media cited Defense Minister Israel Katz as saying pressure on Hamas was increasing and this time "we will really be able to advance a hostage deal". Israel's Nuseirat rescue operation on June 9 saw Israeli forces free four hostages, who had been held by Hamas since October 2023, in a raid Palestinian officials said killed more than 200 people, making it one of the bloodiest Israeli assaults of the war. In the Hamas statement, the group told its operatives to "tighten" the living conditions of the captives and said this should be done in accordance with instructions issued after the Nuseirat operation. In a section titled "recommendations", Hamas also instructed its operatives to "activate neutralization orders ... as an immediate and swift response to any adventure by the enemy."

Hamas, Fatah Agree to Form Committee to Govern Gaza
Gaza: Kifah Zboun/Asharq Al Awsat/December 04/2024
A Palestinian source confirmed that Fatah and Hamas have agreed to form a body called the Social Support Committee to govern Gaza after the war. The source told Asharq Al-Awsat that the final agreement was reached during discussions in Cairo and will be presented to President Mahmoud Abbas for approval. The two-page document describes the committee as the body responsible for managing Gaza under the authority of the Palestinian government in Ramallah. It outlines six key principles for its formation: preserving the unity of Palestinian territories within the 1967 borders (West Bank, Jerusalem, and Gaza), maintaining communication between the Palestinian government and the committee, adhering to the Palestinian political framework, preventing Gaza’s separation from other Palestinian territories, selecting independent and qualified Palestinian leaders, and coordinating with existing local authorities in Gaza. The committee’s mandate will end when its purpose is fulfilled, general elections are held, or another agreed-upon framework is implemented, subject to national consensus and a decision by the Palestinian president. The Palestinian Authority and Hamas turned to this committee as a way to counter regional and international efforts to marginalize them in post-war Gaza governance, according to the sources. Under the agreement, the committee will report to the Palestinian Authority, overseeing humanitarian aid distribution, civil affairs, and Gaza’s reconstruction, including managing the Rafah border crossing. According to the document, the joint body will assume control of Rafah under the terms of the 2005 border agreement, which stipulated Palestinian Authority management of the crossing with international monitors and remote Israeli oversight. While the US and the EU support a return to this arrangement, Israel has so far opposed it, offering only a symbolic role for the Palestinian Authority at Rafah. The agreement, mediated by Egypt, is part of a broader effort to secure a prisoner exchange deal, a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, and an eventual Israeli withdrawal. Officials from both Hamas and Israel have expressed cautious optimism about a potential deal, though the details remain unclear. Asharq Al-Awsat recently reported that Hamas is more open than ever to a phased agreement for Gaza, similar to the framework adopted in Lebanon. Sources indicated that Hamas is willing to accept a gradual Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, including contentious areas such as Philadelphi and Netzarim. The group is also prepared to let the Palestinian Authority manage the Rafah crossing if it leads to its immediate reopening. The agreement also proposes establishing an international fund for Gaza’s reconstruction and reactivating pre-war mechanisms for border crossings. However, it avoids addressing contentious issues such as security control, arms, and law enforcement in Gaza.

Israeli Strike on a Gaza Tent Camp Kills at Least 21 People, Hospital Says
Asharq Al Awsat/December 04/2024
A Palestinian health official said Wednesday that at least 21 people were killed in an Israeli strike on a camp housing displaced people in Gaza. Atif Al-Hout, the director of Nasser Hospital in the southern city of Khan Younis said 28 people were wounded. The Israeli military said it was looking into the reports but had no immediate comment. The strike in the Muwasi area, a sprawling coastal camp housing hundreds of thousands of displaced people, near the southern city of Khan Younis, came after Israeli forces struck targets in other areas of the Palestinian enclave. Earlier strikes on central Gaza killed eight people, including four children. Israel's war in Gaza began when Hamas-led attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducting around 250 people. Some 100 hostages are still inside Gaza, at least a third of whom are believed to be dead. Israel’s offensive has killed over 44,500 Palestinians in Gaza, mostly women and children, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, which does not say how many were combatants. The Israeli military says it has killed over 17,000 fighters, without providing evidence.

Israeli Settlers Attack Two Palestinian Towns and Their Own Military in West Bank
Asharq Al Awsat/December 04/2024
Israeli settlers attacked two Palestinian towns early on Wednesday, setting fire to property and hurling stones, after police looked to dismantle an illegal settler outpost in the occupied West Bank, the Israeli military said. Police and the Shin Bet domestic intelligence service said they had arrested eight people for assaulting security forces and damaging property. Palestinian officials said settlers set one house and two cars ablaze in Huwara, a town near the city of Nablus that has been targeted in the past by radical settlers who want Israel to claim sovereignty over all West Bank territory.
A group of settlers also torched a property in the nearby town of Beit Furik. The Palestinian president's office condemned the violence, saying there had been around 30 settler attacks in the Nablus area in less than a month. Spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeineh called on the United States to intervene, Reuters reported. The Israeli military said a group of settlers had confronted both its own forces and the police."The Israeli army strongly condemns all violence of any kind against its personnel and views such incidents with utmost severity," the army said in its statement.
According to the United Nations, more than 700,000 Israeli settlers now live among 3 million Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, territory Israel captured in 1967. Most countries deem settlements built on the captured land to be illegal. Israel disputes this and cites historical and biblical ties to the land. There has been a surge in violence across the West Bank since the Oct. 7, 2023 attack by Hamas on southern Israel, which triggered Israel's war in Gaza and a wider conflict on several fronts. Some settler youth groups reject the jurisdiction of the Israeli military in areas that they see as under their control and have attacked Israeli forces, as well as Palestinians. Some settler leaders have said violence has no place in their movement and have called for offenders to be prosecuted. Settler groups have taken advantage of the Gaza violence to try to build new outposts in areas that the Israeli state has not yet authorized, with the army occasionally dispatched to dismantle them.

Who is Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the leader of Syria's shock insurgency?
Kareem Chehayeb/BEIRUT (AP)/December 04, 2024
Over the past dozen years, Syrian militant leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani has worked to remake his public image and the insurgency he commands, renouncing longtime ties to al-Qaida and consolidating power before emerging from the shadows. Now al-Golani, 42, seeks to seize the moment yet again, leading his fighters in a stunning offensive that has put them in control of Syria’s largest city, reigniting the country's long civil war and raising new questions about President Bashar Assad’s hold on power.The surge and al-Golani's place at the head of it are evidence of a remarkable transformation. Al-Golani's success on the battlefield follows years of maneuvering among extremist organizations while eliminating competitors and former allies. Along the way he moved to distance himself from al-Qaida, polishing his image and his extremist group's de-facto “salvation government” in an attempt to win over international governments and the country’s religious and ethnic minorities. Putting himself forward as a champion of pluralism and tolerance, al-Golani's rebranding efforts sought to broaden his group's public support and legitimacy. Still, it had been years since Syria’s opposition forces, based in the country's northwest, made any substantial military progress against Assad. The Syrian president's government, with backing from Iran and Russia, has maintained its control of about 70 percent of the country in a stalemate that had left al-Golani and his jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, out of the spotlight. But the rebels' descent on Aleppo and nearby towns, alongside a coalition of Turkish-backed armed groups dubbed the Syrian National Army, has shaken up Syria’s tense detente and left the war-torn country’s neighbors in Jordan, Iraq, and Lebanon worried about this flareup spilling over.
Al-Golani's beginnings in Iraq
Al-Golani’s ties to al-Qaida stretch back to 2003 when he joined extremists battling U.S. troops in Iraq. The native of Syria was detained several times by the U.S. military, but remained in Iraq. During that time, al-Qaida usurped likeminded groups and formed the extremist Islamic State of Iraq, led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. In 2011, a popular uprising against Syria's Assad triggered a brutal government crackdown and led to all-out war. Al-Golani's prominence grew when al-Baghdadi sent him to Syria to establish a branch of al-Qaida called the Nusra Front. The United States labeled the new group as a terrorist organization. That designation still remains in place and the U.S. government has put a $10 million bounty on him.
The Nusra Front and the Syrian conflict
As Syria's civil war intensified in 2013, so did al-Golani’s ambitions. He defied al-Baghdadi’s calls to dissolve the Nusra Front and merge it with al-Qaida's operation in Iraq, to form the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS. Al-Golani nonetheless pledged his allegiance to al-Qaida, which later disassociated itself from ISIS. The Nusra Front battled ISIS and eliminated much of its competition among the Syrian armed opposition to Assad. In his first interview in 2014, al-Golani kept his face covered, telling a reporter for Qatari network Al-Jazeera that he rejected political talks in Geneva to end the conflict. He said his goal was to see Syria ruled under Islamic law and made clear that there was no room for the country's Alawite, Shiite, Druze, and Christian minorities.
Consolidating power and rebranding
In 2016, al-Golani revealed his face to the public for the first time in a video message that announced his group was renaming itself Jabhat Fateh al-Sham and cutting its ties to al-Qaida. “This new organization has no affiliation to any external entity,” he said in the video, filmed wearing military garb and a turban.
The move paved the way for al-Golani to assert full control over fracturing militant groups. A year later, his alliance rebranded again as HTS as the groups merged, consolidating al-Golani’s power in northwest Syria’s Idlib province. Afterward HTS clashed with independent Islamist militants who opposed the merger, further emboldening al-Golani and and his group as the leading power in northwestern Syria, able to rule with an iron fist. With his power consolidated, al-Golani set in motion a transformation that few could have imagined. Replacing his military garb with shirt and trousers, he began calling for religious tolerance and pluralism. He appealed to the Druze community in Idlib, which the Nusra Front had previously targeted, and visited the families of Kurds who were killed by Turkish-backed militias. In 2021, al-Golani had his first interview with an American journalist on PBS. Wearing a blazer, with his short hair gelled back, the now more soft-spoken HTS leader said that his group posed no threat to the West and that sanctions imposed against it were unjust.“Yes, we have criticized Western policies,” he said. “But to wage a war against the United States or Europe from Syria, that’s not true. We didn’t say we wanted to fight.”/**Kareem Chehayeb, The Associated Press

Russia strongly backs Syrian leadership, says rebels are getting outside help
Reuters/December 4, 2024
MOSCOW (Reuters) -Russia said on Wednesday that it strongly backs the actions of the Syrian leadership to counter an offensive by what it said were terrorist groups receiving support, including drones and training, from outside the country. The rebels have staged their biggest advance in years over the past week, first seizing Aleppo and now battling government forces and allied militia near Hama, another major city. "We strongly condemn this attack ... There is no doubt that they would not have dared to commit such an audacious act without the instigation and comprehensive support of external forces that seek to provoke a new round of armed confrontation in Syria, unfurl a the spiral of violence," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters. Russia is a key ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and has provided him with military support since 2015 in the country's civil war. It has intensified air strikes on rebel targets in response to the latest offensive, according to military sources. "We express solidarity with the leadership of Syria," Zakharova said. "We strongly support the efforts of the Syrian authorities to counter terrorist groups and restore constitutional order." Zakharova said, without providing evidence, that the rebels -- including some from former Soviet countries -- had received drones from Ukraine and training in how to operate them. Ukraine's foreign ministry said it "categorically" rejected that accusation. It said in a statement on the Telegram messaging app that Ukraine, unlike Russia, unconditionally adhered to international law and that Russia and Iran were responsible for the deteriorating security situation in Syria.

Syrian military and rebels battle around Hama
Suleiman Al-Khalidi/AMMAN (Reuters)/December 4, 2024
Syrian rebels battled government forces and allied militia on Wednesday in villages north and east of Hama, a major city whose capture would pile pressure on President Bashar al-Assad.The rebels have staged their biggest advance in years over the past week, seizing Aleppo - Syria's biggest city before the war - in a lightning assault that has upended long stable frontlines and further destabilised a region already ablaze from war in Gaza. On Wednesday, as the insurgents mounted fresh assaults around the outskirts of Hama, the most powerful rebel commander was shown on video touring Aleppo's ancient citadel, historically a potent symbol of rule over northern Syria.
Abu Mohammed al-Golani, head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) which was formerly an al Qaeda affiliate, was shown marching out of the citadel's medieval gateway amid cheering supporters and escorted by masked fighters waving opposition flags.
It was a symbolic moment at a site where government forces had hung portraits of Assad when they captured the city in 2016 after a long siege, a major turning point in the war.
The loss of Aleppo last week has stunned Assad and his Iranian and Russian allies, with rebels rapidly taking a swathe of countryside around the city and pushing on to the outskirts of Hama on the road to Damascus. U.N. Syria envoy Geir Pedersen warned the Security Council on Tuesday that the situation was "extremely fluid and dangerous", adding that Syria faced danger of "further division, deterioration, and destruction".
Syria's civil war killed hundreds of thousands of people, sent many millions fleeing across borders and drew in regional and global powers after erupting in 2011 in a rebellion against Assad. Syrian state media and rebels said there was fighting on Wednesday around al-Uwayr and neighbouring villages after pro-government forces had pushed back an assault overnight on Jabal Zain al-Abidin, just north of Hama.
Fighting in Uwayr would indicate rebels were advancing into areas of countryside on the eastern flank of Hama, which is one of Syria's most important cities and has stayed in government hands throughout the conflict.
ALLIES
Moscow and Tehran, distracted by conflicts in Ukraine and elsewhere in the Middle East, have scrambled to get more support to Assad, with Russia intensifying air strikes and Iran-backed Iraqi and Afghan militia groups heading to front lines.
Moscow and Tehran have been allies of the Assad dynasty for decades and Syria remains important to both. Assad represents an important link in the network of Shi'ite groups Iran backs across the region. Russia operates a Mediterranean naval port at Tartous and has an air base at Hmeimim near Latakia. Russian air power and Iran's network of regional militias were vital to Damascus clawing back most of the country from 2015-20 after losing swathes of territory to rebels in the war's early years.
Rebels and Syrian military sources both cited a combination of air strikes and the arrival of reinforcements as crucial in staving off an insurgent approach into northern Hama late on Tuesday. Iran said on Tuesday it would consider sending forces if asked, and Russia said it would strongly support efforts to "counter terrorist groups and restore constitutional order". Meanwhile Assad has started a new conscription push, announcing a 50% increase in military pay and setting up checkpoints in Damascus and eastern Deir al-Zor signing up young men to join the army, residents said.
Syrian state media reported further arrivals of reinforcements to Hama on Wednesday.
REBELS
Golani's appearance in Aleppo underscores the growing sway of HTS, long the most powerful faction in northwest Syria, regarded not only by Damascus and its allies but also by Western countries as a terrorist group.
HTS was originally called the Nusra Front as the main al Qaeda franchise in Syria before cutting formal ties with the global jihadist network in 2016.
The insurgents' rapid advance over the past week has brought them new territory that they may struggle to govern, with food and fuel shortages already reported in Aleppo.
It has also led to the capture of several Syrian military bases and rebel sources said fleeing government forces had abandoned significant amounts of weapons and equipment, now in insurgent hands.
HTS fights alongside more mainstream rebel factions that are backed by Turkey. Ankara also supports the Syrian National Army, a separate rebel grouping that holds a strip of territory along the border. It wants to keep Kurdish groups in Syria away from the frontier and to create a haven for Syrian refugees now living in Turkey. The United States, which still has a small contingent of troops on the ground after intervening to help defeat Islamic State from 2014-2017, supports an alliance led by Syria's main Kurdish armed group.

US forces in Syria at frontline of Iran, regime threats - analysis
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/December 04/2024
This appears to be a show of force from the US to show the regime and militias not to get any ideas amid the chaos in Syria.
US forces deployed to Syria to support the Syrian Democratic Forces's fight against ISIS are now finding themselves at flashpoints near the Euphrates River as fighting escalates in Syria. The Syrian regime lost the city of Aleppo to opposition forces in late November. This caused a domino effect in Syria that led to Turkish-backed militias attacking the Syrian Democratic Forces, and this, in turn, led to other tensions between the SDF and Syrian regime forces. It’s difficult to explain how this is all linked. What matters in this case is understanding that hundreds of US forces are deployed in eastern Syria. Some of them are deployed near the Euphrates River Valley, which is of key importance. On the western side, the Syrian regime is deployed at Deir Ezzor and along villages that run down to the Iraqi border. Upriver is the town of Tabqah. The SDF controls the eastern side of the Euphrates River.
Over the last six years, Iranian-backed militias have been active along the Euphrates River on the western side. They also control a small pocket on the eastern side of the river in a place called Khasham. This area and others are now the site of clashes. The SDF is fighting both the Syrian regime and other Iranian-backed forces in this area. The US now says that it has acted against imminent threats in this area. Over the years, Iranian-backed groups have launched drone and rocket attacks on US forces from areas along the Euphrates River. “This morning, US Central Command (CENTCOM) forces successfully destroyed several weapon systems in the vicinity of Military Support Site Euphrates that included three truck mounted Multiple Rocket Launchers, a T-64 tank, an armored personnel carrier, and mortars that presented a clear and imminent threat to US and Coalition forces. The self-defense strike occurred after the truck mounted Multiple Rocket Launcher, armored personnel carrier, and mortars were fired toward US forces,” the US said on December 3. US Central Command added that “the US mission in Syria remains unchanged as US and Coalition forces continue to focus on the enduring defeat of ISIS. The ongoing support of regional partners and operations in Syria are unrelated to recent events in northwest Syria. CENTCOM forces continue to monitor the situation and remain in constant communication with our other forces in the region as the situation develops.” Wareplanes operating in the area
Footage online claimed to show US A-10 warplanes operating in the area. These airplanes, designed for close air support of ground forces, carry a massive gun capable of a high rate of fire of 30mm shells. The gun called an Avenger cannon, is supposed to be used against armored vehicles or lightly armored vehicles, but it can also cause destruction to enemy ground forces, infantry, and all manner of adversaries. One A-10 could be effective at destroying lightly armed Syrian regime troops and Iranian militias in the area. This appears to be a show of force from the US to show the regime and militias not to get any ideas amid the chaos in Syria. Iran opposes the US presence in Syria. Iran has accused the US and Israel of being behind plots in Syria against the regime. Russia and Turkey also oppose the US presence in Syria.

Russia, Iran, Turkey in 'close contact' over Syria conflict
Agence France Presse/December 04/2024
Russia, Iran and Turkey are in "close contact" over the conflict in Syria, Moscow said on Wednesday, after a shock offensive has seen Islamist-led rebels capture the second city of Aleppo."The foreign ministers of the three guarantor countries -- Russia, Iran and Turkey -- are in close contact with each other," Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters on Wednesday.

Syrian army launches counteroffensive against rebels near Hama
Associated Press/December 04/2024
Syria said Wednesday its counteroffensive has pushed back insurgents attempting to advance to the strategic central city of Hama, while the insurgency says it captured more Syrian troops and Iran-backed militants in fierce battles. The latest flareup in Syria's long civil war comes after forces opposed to Syrian President Bashar Assad over the past days captured large parts of the northern city of Aleppo, the country's largest, as well as towns and villages in southern parts of the northwestern Idlib province. The war between Assad and his foreign backers and the array of armed opposition forces seeking his overthrow has killed an estimated half-million people over the past 13 years.
Syrian state media SANA said insurgents retreated some 20 kilometers (12 miles) from government-held Hama, Syria's fourth largest city, as government troops backed by Russian airpower entrenched themselves in the outskirts. Fierce fighting has raged for days as Damascus fears that the insurgents will make their way into the city like they did over the weekend into Aleppo. The insurgency through its Military Operations Department channel on the Telegram app said they captured five Iran-backed militants, of whom two were from Afghanistan, as well as three Syrian troops from its 25th Special Mission Forces Division in eastern Hama. The claims could not be independently confirmed. If the insurgents seize Hama city and control the province, it could leave the coastal cities of Tartous and Lattakia isolated from the rest of the country. Lattakia is a key political stronghold for Assad and Syria's Alawite community and a strategic Russian naval base. Tens of thousands have been displaced by the fighting, which started last week, Geir Pedersen, the U.N. special envoy for Syria, said Tuesday.
"If we do not see de-escalation and a rapid move to a serious political process, involving the Syrian parties and the key international players, then I fear we will see a deepening of the crisis," Pedersen said in an address the U.N. Security Council. "Syria will be in grave danger of further division, deterioration, and destruction." The insurgency is led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a jihadi group, as well as an umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militias called the Syrian National Army. For years, both have entrenched themselves in northwest Idlib province and parts of northern Aleppo, as the battered country reeled from years of political and military stalemates. The groups, alongside Turkey, believe that the insurgency shows that Assad must reconcile with opposition forces and include them in any political solution to end the conflict. Ankara has been seeking to normalize ties with Syria to address security threats from groups affiliated with Kurdish militants along its southern border and to help ensure the safe return of more than 3 million Syrian refugees. Assad has insisted that Turkey's withdrawal of its military forces from northern Syria be a condition for any normalization between the two countries.Damascus views the insurgents as terrorists, and Assad has vowed to respond to the insurgency with an iron fist. Turkish and Iranian officials have met earlier this week, in a bid to reach a solution to deescalate the flareup. Arab countries bordering Syria and once backed groups that tried to overthrow Assad, have expressed their concern of the conflict's regional impacts, and have backed the president.

Syria’s Opposition Leader Tours Seized City of Aleppo, as Fierce Battles Intensify Near Hama
Asharq Al Awsat/December 04/2024
The leader of Syria's most powerful opposition group toured the seized city of Aleppo on Wednesday in a surprise visit — the first since the group captured large parts of the city over the weekend as fierce fighting intensifies in the government-led counter-offensive in northern Hama. Abu Mohammed al-Golani, who heads the extremist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group, greeted crowds of supporters near the city's iconic citadel as he smiled and waved in dark green military garb. Surrounded by masked gunmen in flak jackets, he walked through the heart of Syria's largest city. The sudden capture of Aleppo, also an ancient business hub, was a stunning prize for Syrian opponents of President Bashar al-Assad. It was the first opposition attack on the city since 2016, when a brutal Russian air campaign retook the northwestern city for Assad after opposition forces had initially seized it. Intervention by Russia, Iran and Iranian-allied militant Hezbollah and other groups has allowed Assad to remain in power. The latest flareup in Syria’s long civil war comes after forces opposed to Assad ousted his troops from Aleppo and seized towns and villages in southern parts of the northwestern Idlib province, likely exploiting the fact that Assad's main regional and international backers were preoccupied with their own wars. The offensive is being led by the HTS as well as an umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militias called the Syrian National Army. For years, both have entrenched themselves in northwest Idlib province and parts of northern Aleppo, as the battered country reeled from years of political and military stalemates. The war between Assad and his foreign backers and the array of armed opposition forces seeking his overthrow has killed an estimated half-million people over the past 13 years. Elsewhere, Syrian authorities said their counteroffensive pushed back opposition fighters attempting to advance to the strategic central city of Hama, while the fighters said they captured more Syrian troops and Iran-backed militants in fierce battles. Syrian state SANA news agency on Wednesday said the fighters retreated some 20 kilometers (12 miles) from government-held Hama, Syria's fourth-largest city, as government troops backed by Russian airpower entrenched themselves in the outskirts. Fierce fighting has raged for days as Damascus fears that the opposition will make their way into Hama as they did over the weekend into Aleppo. A Syrian photographer working for the German news agency dpa was killed in an airstrike near Hama, the agency said Wednesday. Anas Alkharboutli, 32, has long documented Syria’s civil war, which started after a brutal crackdown on a peaceful popular uprising against Assad in 2011. He has worked for dpa since 2017.
The opposition fighters claimed on their Military Operations Department channel on the Telegram app that they captured five Iran-backed militants, of whom two were from Afghanistan, as well as three Syrian troops from its 25th Special Mission Forces Division in eastern Hama. The claims could not be independently confirmed. If the opposition factions seize the city of Hama and take control of the province, it could leave the coastal cities of Tartus and Latakia isolated from the rest of the country. Latakia is a key political stronghold for Assad and Syria's Alawite minority and a strategic Russian naval base. Tens of thousands have been displaced by the fighting, which started last week, Geir Pedersen, the UN special envoy for Syria, said Tuesday.
"If we do not see de-escalation and a rapid move to a serious political process, involving the Syrian parties and the key international players, then I fear we will see a deepening of the crisis," Pedersen said in an address to the UN Security Council. "Syria will be in grave danger of further division, deterioration, and destruction."About 3,000 displaced people from the Hama countryside and Aleppo made their way to the city of Homs, with many more on the way. Those who arrived and found shelter in schools told The Associated Press that they spent hours in traffic, many struggling to afford surging gas prices. Nidal Assaf, 38, fled the northern Hama countryside where the opposition seized several towns and villages. Speaking from a school-turned-shelter in Homs, he said the local residents and the army couldn't handle the attackers, and that he had to flee amid the fighting with his family and tens of relatives.
"People eventually had to flee," he said. Youssef Choueib said he fled Aleppo to Homs for the third time since 2011. First, he left when opposition fighters last took the city, then after a massive earthquake in 2023 rattled northern Syria and Türkiye, and finally now. Many of his family are still in Aleppo, he said. "They called me many times, but they said they couldn’t leave. They tell me there is no bread. There is no food at all."Türkiye, which backs the opposition, has called on Assad to reconcile with opposition forces and include them in any political solution to end the conflict. Ankara has been seeking to normalize ties with Syria to address security threats from groups affiliated with Kurdish militants along its southern border and to help ensure the safe return of more than 3 million Syrian refugees. Assad has insisted that Türkiye's withdrawal of its military forces from northern Syria be a condition for any normalization between the two countries. Damascus views the opposition fighters as terrorists, and Assad has vowed to respond to the uprising with an iron fist. Turkish and Iranian officials met earlier this week, in a bid to reach a solution to de-escalate the flareup.

UN Envoy: Situation in Syria ‘Dangerous’ and Threatens ISIS Resurgence
Asharq Al Awsat/December 04/2024
Geir Pedersen, Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for Syria, warned on Tuesday that the situation in Syria is extremely fluid and dangerous, as a vast swathe of territory has come under the control of non-state actors. At a briefing to the Security Council on the situation in the country, Pedersen also cautioned that developments may lead to the resurgence of ISIS. “Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) and armed opposition groups are gaining ground, advancing very close to Hama – a major city of some 1 million people,” he said. In addition, the envoy warned of the potential for conflict on other axes in Syria, adding that further military escalation risks mass displacement and civilian casualties. “I appeal to all parties to their obligations under international law to protect civilians and civilian infrastructure and allow safe passage for Syrians fleeing violence,” Pedersen told the Council. He then urged deescalation and a rapid move to a serious political process to avoid a deepening of the crisis that threatens the territorial integrity and safety of Syria. “If we do not see deescalation and a rapid move to a serious political process, involving the Syrian parties and the key international players, then I fear we will see a deepening of the crisis,” he said. Pederson then revealed that he will return to the region “soon,” and he expressed his readiness to use his good offices to convene international and Syria stakeholders in new and comprehensive peace talks on Syria.
The envoy asked that deescalation be accompanied by a credible political horizon for the Syrian people. Over the past few days, armed factions in northwestern Syria led by the HTS launched a military assault against pro-Assad forces, seizing Aleppo and Idlib. They continue to advance towards the city of Hama.

Israeli Army is Setting Up Rapid Response Unit on Border with Syria
Tel Aviv: Nazir Magally/Asharq Al Awsat/December 04/2024
The Israeli military has announced the formation of a special rapid response unit in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights to fend off threats from Syria, when necessary. Commander of the 210th Bashan Division Lieutenant Colonel Yair Palai said the unit would operate as an effective attack force capable to launch in seconds and prevent threats on Israel similar to the one Hamas launched on October 7, 2023. “The Unit will be prepared 24 hours a day, seven days a week, regardless of events,” he said. “In the case of any security incident, the Unit will strike the enemy mercilessly. There is no possibility of failure, because this unit depends on constant vigilance,” Palai said. The unit, which is comprised of elite soldiers from reconnaissance units and special reserve units, will operate under the 210th Division. Sources said the unit has fully mobilized and operated continuously over the past three months.
Its goal was initially to counter Iranian, Syrian, Yemeni, Iraqi or other militias that might operate from the Golan against Jewish settlements there. But recent developments in Syria compelled the army to prepare for any additional threats. Last week, Syrian army soldiers were killed in a major attack by opposition fighters led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, who swept into the city of Aleppo in the northwest, forcing the military to redeploy in the biggest challenge to President Bashar Assad in years. On Tuesday, Haaretz said the Israeli military fears that amid the Syrian opposition assault and their taking over of military sites belonging to the Assad regime in the country, chemical weapons could fall into the wrong hands. If such weapons fall into the hands of the opposition fighters or Iranian militias, Israel would have to act in a way that “may affect Syria and the entire Middle East,” according to Haaretz. The report said that after the country's civil war, Assad tried to rebuild his chemical weapons production facilities, with most having been removed from Syria under an international agreement. But a substantial part of the chemical weapons project, particularly the knowledge accumulated over the years, still remains in Assad's hands.
Haaretz wrote that Israel has relayed messages to the Syrian regime via the Russians insisting that Assad assert his sovereignty and bar Iran from operating from within Syria. “The army is monitoring with concern the surprise Syrian rebel offensive on Assad strongholds in Syria that began last week,” it said. Also, intelligence officials believe that while the Syrian president's standing has been weakened, Iran, with Russia's support, is exploiting the chaos in order to send in tens of thousands of fighters from the armed militias that support it. According to Haaretz, the army's current estimate is that there are 40,000 Iranian militia fighters in Syria. In tandem with the ceasefire with Hezbollah, the Israeli army has been carrying out strikes almost daily on the border between Syria and Lebanon in order to thwart attempts to smuggle weaponry destined for Hezbollah. Although to date there is no firm evidence that the Iranian forces plan to station themselves in Damascus, the newspaper said one Israeli diplomatic official involved in the discussions referred to this on Sunday as a known fact. “Iran has begun to send an influx of forces into Syria in an attempt to aid Assad and suppress the revolt,” he said.

Red Cross marks record numbers of humanitarians killed in 2024
AFP/December 05, 2024
GENEVA: Dozens of Red Cross staff and volunteers gathered Wednesday for a candlelight vigil for more than 30 of their colleagues killed in 2024, during the deadliest year on record for humanitarians. More than 100 people crowded outside the headquarters of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) in Geneva, most donning red vests and carrying candles. The tribute came as a Palestine Red Crescent volunteer was killed Wednesday in the Gaza Strip, which “brings the total number of IFRC network members killed worldwide this year to 32,” the group said in a statement.
“Alaa Al-Derawi, a member of PRCS’s emergency medical team, was fatally shot in the Khan Younis area of Gaza, shortly after transporting patients for treatment. He was returning to base when the incident occurred,” it said. In Geneva, standing in the stinging cold in front of a banner emblazoned with the words “Protect Humanity,” some held up pictures of the staff and volunteers killed this year while performing their humanitarian duties. “We are shocked. We are appalled,” Nena Stoiljkovic, the IFRC’s Under Secretary-General for Global Relations, Humanitarian Diplomacy and Digitalization, told the gathering. “We are not a target,” added IFRC official Frank Mohrhauer. Following a minute of silence, an IFRC staff member solemnly read out the names of those killed. They were among a record number of aid workers who have perished around the world this year. Already last month, the United Nations said the record number of 280 humanitarians killed in 2023 had been surpassed, and the number has kept climbing. Israel’s devastating war in Gaza has especially been driving up the numbers, but aid workers were also subject to violence and killings in a range of countries including Sudan and Ukraine. “2024 is now the deadliest year on record for humanitarian workers, especially for local staff and volunteers worldwide,” Stoiljkovic said. “This grim milestone has not spared the IFRC network,” she said, pointing to more “heartbreaking news” just last week when another Syrian Arab Red Crescent volunteer was killed, and eight others injured in an attack. “They were rescuing people in desperate need of humanitarian assistance,” she said. Stoiljkovic told AFP that the event, which came before International Volunteers’ Day on Thursday, provided “a moment to reflect” on the towering losses with “sadness and compassion.”

The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on December 04-05/2024
The US-Iraq Relationship and its Implications for Regional Stability
Farhad Alaaldin/The Iraqi Prime Minister's Advisor for Foreign Affairs/Asharq Al Awsat/December 04/2024
In a notable indication of the seriousness of the strategic relationship between Iraq and the United States of America, the phone call between Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani and US President-elect Donald Trump has given it a new dimension. This call caught observers' and analysts’ attention. It introduced a critical phase in the relationship just before Trump begins his four-year term, which the entire world is looking forward to with great anticipation and interest.
For his part, President Sudani affirmed Iraq's commitment to strengthening ties with Washington. Following the phone call with President Trump last month, he elaborated on his vision for a future based on "equality and shared interests." This commitment to the strategic partnership reflects Iraq's need to reinforce security, but it is also broader in scope and encompasses the finance, energy, and technology sectors. This commitment is part of Iraq's effort to maintain its sovereignty, develop its capabilities, and develop, as well as to maintain balanced and distinguished relations with both neighboring countries and the world at large. It is clear that Iraq is striving for a real balance between security and the economy that meets its aspirations, making up for opportunities missed by previous governments over the years, and for the challenges and setbacks they faced. Iraq’s strategic partnership with the United States is founded on military and security cooperation. Thus, the current government intends to deepen this partnership and identify more beneficial avenues for cooperation, with economic issues at the forefront, in order to advance the government’s program to achieve prosperity and stability in the medium and long term.
Given their shared commitment to the fight against terrorism and to ensuring regional security, both parties are betting on Iraq's stature, as a key player in the region, and its role on the frontlines of the fight against terrorism in all of its forms. The international coalition led by the United States witnessed the sacrifices made by the Iraqi security forces over years of ferocious combat with terrorist forces. Indeed, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken recently emphasized this recognition and Washington’s gratitude for Iraq’s role in this regard.
With ISIS significantly weakened, Iraq and the United States are now focusing on the next phase of security cooperation. Both parties recognize that the remnants of ISIS’s ideological discourse continue to pose a threat to stability, not only in the region but across the globe. The movements of the organization’s cells from the Horn of Africa and other areas are clear evidence of this. Therefore, US assistance- through training, and intelligence sharing- will remain of utmost importance, especially given Iraq's need for support to secure its borders and maintain domestic security until its integrated security and military system becomes self-sufficient.
It is clear that combating terrorism will remain the foundational pillar of the Iraqi-American relationship in the near term. However, looking to the future, both countries understand the importance of expanding their partnership to include other sectors such as economic development and investment. During his visit to Washington last April, Sudani said that Iraq sought to "open a new chapter" in its relationship with the United States, stressing commercial and investment opportunities. This shift aligns with the ongoing economic shifts in Iraq, which has made notable progress in modernizing its banking sector and enhancing global trust through partnerships with major American financial institutions such as JPMorgan Chase and Citibank.
The energy sector remains the basic pillar of the economic relationship between the two countries. As one of the largest oil producers in the world, Iraq has a significant influence on global energy markets. Ongoing reforms in Iraq's energy sector, such as optimizing the use of associated gas, are aimed at drawing more American investment. Partnerships like our joint project to develop gas fields and energy projects with the French company TotalEnergies reflect this commitment. Additionally, investments in energy infrastructure projects, such as the development of a liquefied natural gas plant in the Port of Faw in collaboration with the American company KBR, reinforce Iraq's role as a central player in global energy markets.
Beyond security and energy, the two countries are opening new avenues for cooperation in agriculture, healthcare, technology, and education. Iraq, which seeks to diversify its economy and overcome the legacy of past conflicts, aspires to build partnerships that strengthen its infrastructure and develop its human capital. These partnerships provide mutual benefits; they offer US companies access to a rapidly evolving market, while Iraq benefits from advanced US expertise and technology.
The Iraqi-American relationship is for stability and prosperity in the region. As Iraq continues to rebuild and affirm its sovereignty, the United States remains an indispensable partner. Nonetheless, for this partnership to succeed, it must be based on mutual respect and shared interests. As an independent state, Iraq's relationship, whether with the United States or any other country, should reinforce its sovereignty and national priorities.
The opportunities available for expanding this partnership are immense. If it is committed to, this partnership can reach unprecedented levels, benefitting both countries and ensuring regional stability for decades to come.

Bridging Borders with Energy: MENA’s Path to Regional Energy Integration
Ousmane Dione and Paul Noumba Um/Asharq Al Awsat/December 04/2024
The Pan Arab Electricity Market (PAEM) is a significant initiative aimed at integrating the power systems of Arab countries to create a regional electricity market among the members of the League of Arab States (LAS). The initiative was formalized in 2017 when the LAS members signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to advance the concept of PAEM. Recently, a significant milestone has been achieved with LAS members signing the market agreements during the LAS Arab Council of Ministers of Energy meeting on December 2, 2024, in Cairo. This sets the stage for Pan Arab countries to expand electricity trade and to enable more effective cooperation within and beyond the region. With the ratification of PAEM’s governance agreements, the focus will shift to advancing the PAEM market design to promote its operation and trade, aiming to remove trade barriers through harmonizing technical and market rules, enhancing economic efficiency, and involving the private sector more significantly.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, often seen as one of the least integrated areas globally, holds immense potential for regional cooperation and trade, especially in the energy sector, which is the lifeblood of its economies. Establishing a Pan-Arab Electricity Market through the Members of the League of Arab States could transform MENA's electricity landscape. By coordinating expansion plans and optimizing resources, the PAEM can significantly reduce overall costs, allowing countries to optimize investments aimed at meeting peak national demands. This strategic coordination could save the region between $107 billion and $196 billion in system costs till 2035.
Moreover, the PAEM has the potential to unlock a vast reservoir of renewable energy, estimated at 192 gigawatts, which could drive substantial job growth across the region. According to the World Bank, countries like Egypt and Morocco could see the creation of nearly 2 million and 700,000 net jobs respectively in the green energy sector over the next three decades. These jobs will emerge from investments in the manufacturing, installation, and maintenance of solar and wind power infrastructure, positioning the PAEM as a crucial catalyst for local economic development and a shift away from fossil fuels.
The benefits of the PAEM extend beyond the energy sector because lowering electricity costs will then invigorate multiple sectors. The industrial sector can reduce expenses, enhancing competitiveness and job creation. In agriculture, affordable electricity can power better irrigation and processing facilities, boosting productivity and farmers' income. The commercial sector can cut overheads and increase profitability, fostering more small and medium-sized enterprises. Households will enjoy reduced expenses, improving living standards, while reliable electricity enhances healthcare and education.
Affordable electricity also addresses water management challenges in the MENA region, powering advanced irrigation, desalination, and recycling facilities which make water more accessible and sustainable. This helps mitigate water scarcity and ensures a resilient future. Overall, the PAEM can improve poverty levels, well-being, health, and job opportunities in the MENA region by reducing electricity costs, stimulating economic growth, and enhancing living conditions, healthcare, and education.
A fully integrated PAEM would be one of the largest multi-country integrated power systems globally, with a total generation capacity of over 600 gigawatts. This will significantly enhance the resilience and security of the energy system in the MENA region by diversifying the sources and origins of electricity whereby countries can reduce their dependence on any single source or type of energy. This diversification is crucial for mitigating risks associated with energy supply disruptions, price volatility, and geopolitical tensions, thereby enhancing overall energy security and resilience.
Furthermore, with the huge potential for the development of renewable energy in MENA and its proximity to energy demand markets such as Europe, the region can position itself to become a hub for clean energy supply to Europe and globally. Cross-border energy trade and clean energy development have significant potential for delivering economic benefits and job creation to MENA countries. While energy collaboration between MENA and European countries can contribute to addressing common challenges such as climate change, technology transfer, and decarbonization, and help in alleviating migration and displacement.
The World Bank Group (WBG) is committed to supporting MENA in its regional energy integration and trading agenda. The ELMED project, supported by the WBG shows our dedication to improving regional energy connections and promoting sustainable energy solutions. The ELMED interconnector is an energy bridge that will link Tunisia and Italy and allow them to share electricity and support the use of renewable energy sources. The World Bank has also launched a new study to explore other opportunities for renewable energy development and regional trade between MENA and Europe.
The PAEM initiative aligns with the WBG’s goals of fostering sustainable development and ensuring a livable planet. The Bank has been working closely with the LAS and its member countries to establish regional electricity markets. This includes helping to draft the foundational market agreements for PAEM. Additionally, the Bank has provided hands-on support to create a long-term roadmap and implementation plan for the PAEM initiative, developed guidelines for economic and financial analyses of regional transmission projects, and conducted over ten training events for electricity utilities and regulatory agencies in LAS member states.
In conclusion, the PAEM initiative and the signing of its market agreements on December 2, 2024, by LAS members represent a transformative opportunity for the MENA region, promising substantial economic, social, and environmental benefits. By optimizing resource use, the PAEM can significantly reduce electricity costs, stimulate job creation, and enhance the quality of life across the region. The initiative's focus on renewable energy development aligns with global sustainability goals and positions MENA as a potential hub for clean energy supply to Europe and beyond.
Ousmane Dione is the World Bank Vice President for the Middle East and North Africa region
**Paul Noumba Um is the Regional Director of the World Bank's Infrastructure Department in the Middle East and North Africa region

Natural allies: Iranians reject regime’s anti-Israel policies
Saeed Ghasseminejad & Janatan Sayeh/Ynet News/December 04/2024
Once allies, Iran and Israel now face deep hostility due to the Islamic Republic’s anti-Israel stance; many Iranians, frustrated with the regime’s oppression and failed policies, view Israel as a natural ally, embracing shared interests and historic bonds
In the annals of history, few relationships are as paradoxical today as that between Iran and Israel. Once natural allies bound by a rich tapestry of shared history and mutual respect, the two countries now stand on opposing sides of a deep ideological chasm.
The Islamic Republic’s hostility toward Israel is not only a departure from Iran’s historical norms but also a strategic blunder that undermines Iran’s national interests. Consequently, many Iranians view Israel as a potential ally in their quest to bring down the clerical regime and transform their nation.
Amid the wave of anti-Israel protests across the West since Hamas’ terrorist attack on October 7, 2023, Iranians stood out as perhaps the only Middle Eastern diaspora to express solidarity with Israelis confronting rising antisemitism. Iranian activists in major cities throughout the United States and Europe marched side by side with Jewish communities, demonstrating their support for Israel in its struggle against Tehran’s terrorist proxies.
Many Iranians, particularly the youth, have voiced growing frustration with the Islamic Republic’s ideology and foreign policy in recent years. Economic hardship, political repression, international isolation and Tehran’s regional aggression drive dissent, as exemplified by slogans like “No to Gaza, no to Lebanon, my life for Iran” during the 2009 Green Movement and “Death to Palestine” in 2018. After the October massacre, soccer fans echoed similar anti-Palestinian chants in Tehran. These are not expressions of xenophobia but demands for a reorientation of national priorities.
Iran’s third generation since the 1979 Islamic Revolution—comprising Gen Z and millennials—has firmly embraced a pro-Israel stance. In October 2023, this shift became evident when students, protesting school administrators who sought to force them into chanting “Death to Israel,” defiantly reversed the slogan to “Death to Palestine.” Similarly, students at Tehran University made a powerful symbolic stand when they refused to walk over a painted Israeli flag on the floor.
Various surveys conducted by both Iranian and international pollsters consistently show that most Iranians oppose the Islamic Republic’s antisemitic and anti-Western foreign policy. Considering the regime’s tight control and the population’s fear of reprisals, polling in Iran may be unreliable, yet these findings have remained remarkably consistent over time.
For example, a poll commissioned by Israel’s Foreign Ministry and conducted by the Paris-based Ipsos Group in 2022 showed that a majority of Iranians support better relations with Israel and condemn the regime’s backing of terrorist organizations. Similarly, a 2021 study by the Netherlands-based Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran research foundation revealed that most Iranians reject the regime’s “Death to Israel” rhetoric.
The history of Iranian-Jewish relations reveals a sharp contrast between the pre-Islamic and post-Islamic eras. In 539 BC, Cyrus the Great of the Achaemenid Empire liberated Jewish exiles from Babylon, earning him praise in the Hebrew Bible. His policies of religious tolerance and cultural inclusivity allowed diverse communities, including Jews, to flourish under Persian rule. This golden era gave way to hardship in post-Islamic Iran, where Persian Jews endured persecution, particularly under Qajar rule, as Shia clergy incited pogroms and forced conversions.
The Pahlavi dynasty sought to restore the principles of Iran’s pre-Islamic heritage with secular reforms and modernization. Iran was the second Muslim-majority nation to recognize Israel, establishing diplomatic relations in 1950. The two countries forged robust ties in trade, intelligence and military cooperation. Israeli engineers helped develop Iranian infrastructure, while Iran supplied Israel’s energy needs. The relationship was pragmatic, mutually beneficial and rooted in a shared apprehension of hostile Arab nationalism and Islamism.
Yet the 1979 Revolution marked a dramatic shift in Iran-Israel relations. Under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the Islamic Republic’s first supreme leader, Israel was recast as an enemy of Islam. The regime severed ties with Israel, turned its embassy into a Palestinian mission and targeted Jewish figures like businessman and philanthropist Habib Elghanian, whose execution in 1979 under the trumped-up charges of espionage for Israel sent a chilling message to Iran’s Jewish community.
As Iranians endure the oppressive reign of the Islamic Republic, it is difficult for them not to reflect on the significant role Palestinians played in supporting the 1979 Revolution. During that time, a range of Islamist and leftist factions in Iran—among them the Khomeinists and the Islamo-Marxist Mojahedin-e Khalq—received training and military support from fighters of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). Just days after the revolution succeeded, PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat arrived in Tehran to celebrate the triumph alongside Khomeini.
It is in this context that the exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi traveled to Israel in 2023, breaking a taboo, met with Israeli prime minister and president and brought the message of peace and friendship on behalf of many Iranians.
Iranians increasingly recognize that Iran and Israel share common interests: Both are non-Arab states in a largely Arab region, both have historical grievances with Islamic extremism and both stand to benefit from regional stability. As the memory of ancient bonds and mutual respect persists, many Iranians are realizing that their future prosperity lies not in isolation, but in embracing natural allies.
*Saeed Ghasseminejad is a senior Iran and financial economics advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD); Janatan Sayeh, who is Jewish, is a research analyst. Both were born and raised in Iran.

Gaza’s despair echoed by AI … A robot’s take on humanity
Bakir Oweida/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 04, 2024
ChatGPT would react knowing I have not only thrust it into this article’s headline but also credited the piece to the esteemed “robot’s” pen — a robot that could rightfully claim to be the talk of the town from its original bearer, the venerable poet Al-Mutanabbi. The story began with an unexpected email from a friend describing his conversation with the chatbot about Gaza’s tragedies. He follows Abboud Obeid, a young Gazan who has become a prominent social media voice documenting the war. When Obeid vanished for several weeks, many feared the worst. Upon his reappearance, his first words were striking: “The final exodus is to heaven.”The phrase struck a chord with my friend, so he decided to test ChatGPT’s understanding. He prompted: “I want to write a short article about the phrase ‘The final exodus is to heaven,’ spoken by a Gazan to express their dire humanitarian situation.”
Within seconds, the AI responded: “The phrase ‘The final exodus is to heaven,’ uttered by a Gazan, encapsulates the depth of their humanitarian crisis — a suffering that transcends conventional expression. It embodies the accumulated anguish of siege, repeated displacement and wars that devour innocent lives and shatter dreams. This journey to heaven symbolizes both sacrifice and surrender to a brutal reality: survival in Gaza has become fraught with countless risks and displacement no longer offers safety but rather a final journey toward eternal peace. As the blockade tightens, bombings intensify and basic necessities vanish, residents find themselves trapped between an unbearable existence and death — which has become more merciful than the harshness of their current reality. In Gaza, where options for life diminish daily, people express their condition through words heavy with both pain and faith, as if declaring that, despite their tragedies, they march toward immortality and eternal peace. While this phrase carries immense bitterness, it also reveals an unbreakable will, symbolizing the resilience of a people who, despite endless suffering, still carry dreams of liberation and victory in their hearts — even if the price is the final exodus to heaven.”My friend Hisham bin Ghalboun’s astonishment at ChatGPT’s response mirrored my own. I scrutinized the text repeatedly, searching for flaws in the AI’s writing, but I found none. This brought me back to my first encounter with this same chatbot when it emerged in late 2022 — but that is a story for another article, one that demands reflection on how we navigate this rapidly evolving world. Bakir Oweida is a Palestinian journalist who pursued a professional career in journalism in Libya in 1968, where he worked at Al-Haqiqa newspaper in Benghazi, then Al-Balagh and Al-Jihad in Tripoli. He has written for several Arab publications in Britain since 1978. He worked at Al-Arab newspaper, Al-Thadamun magazine and the international Arabic newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat. He has also worked as a consultant at the online newspaper Elaph.

Mismanagement Makes Iran Vulnerable to a Different Type of U.S. Pressure
 Patrick Clawson/The Washington Institute/December 04/2024
About the Authors
Patrick Clawson
Patrick Clawson
Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.
Brief Analysis
The country faces shortages of gasoline, natural gas, and electricity that make it newly susceptible to pressure against its oil product imports, not just its oil exports.
In a December 2 televised interview, Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian warned that the country “will potentially face a crisis” if it does not address its growing energy deficit, hinting that the government may not be able to pay pensions unless fuel prices go up. The interview came amid revived conversations abroad about implementing new U.S. restrictions on Iranian oil exports, with many observers noting that this tactic would face tall obstacles and might be largely ignored by the emboldened, sanctions-evading regime. Pezeshkian’s comments suggest another avenue for pressure, however.
After years of misguided policies, Iran is already in the throes of a serious domestic energy crisis complete with rolling blackouts, empty gasoline pumps, and shortages of natural gas, which the vast majority of Iranians use for home heating. Having spent at least $2 billion to import gasoline last year, the government revealed that it will spend $4 billion for this purpose during the Iranian year 2024/25; it might spend even more to import heavy fuel for electricity generation. Yet many of the countries that would fulfill these expanding Iranian orders are now looking to cultivate good relations with the incoming Trump administration, giving Washington an opening to identify these exporters and press them to redirect their sales to other needy markets.
Tehran Encourages Energy Waste
In 2019, Iranian protests against gasoline price increases quickly spiraled into a major showdown, with mass calls for regime change and a crackdown that killed hundreds of people. Seemingly acknowledging the scale of public anger, the regime took steps to stabilize prices at the pump at 30,000 rials per liter—at the time equivalent to 85 cents per gallon and now just 16 cents. The government also offered a monthly ration of 150 liters per vehicle at half that price (lowered to 60 liters this January). These measures have contributed to soaring demand in recent years, exacerbated by an aging vehicle fleet in which most cars get around 17-21 miles per gallon.
Gas smuggling to neighboring countries has spiraled as well, with an estimated 20% or more of the fuel sold daily in Iran (30 million gallons, or 120 million liters) being taken abroad for lucrative resale—especially in Iraq (where pump prices are fifteen times higher), Turkey (thirty times), and Pakistan (20 times). On October 6, the government imposed limits of 50 liters per refueling, two refuelings per day, and 300 liters per month for each car—a move described as combatting smuggling but widely seen as a response to gas stations repeatedly running out of fuel. On November 10, shortages of the higher-octane gas that is better for car engines spurred the government to authorize private imports of super-grade gasoline at an estimated price of $5 per gallon (800,000 rials per liter). More broadly, Iranian officials and media across the political spectrum—from Pezeshkian on down—are now questioning the rationale for such low prices, though insisting that no decision has been made to raise them.
Meanwhile, natural gas shortages have been worsening. Iran uses this resource more intensively than nearly every other country in the world—according to the Statistical Review of World Energy, gas made up 70% of its primary energy consumption in 2023, compared to 34% in the United States and 20% in the European Union. More than 90% of homes are now connected to the gas grid for heating and cooking, and domestic prices for this resource are ridiculously cheap, discouraging efforts to improve energy efficiency. Iran has also lagged at creating storage that could be filled in summer and used during exceptionally cold winters like the current one. Consequently, the government expects a shortage of 260 million cubic meters per day this winter even after mandating a rate increase for household use on November 17—no surprise given that daily consumption averaged 670 million cubic meters in 2023. Pezeshkian’s proposed remedy for the shortage bordered on authoritarian satire: “I wear warm clothes at home. Other people can do that too.” (Notably, he grew up in Iran's Azerbaijan region, where winter temperatures can reach 40 degrees below zero.)
These shortages have undercut Tehran’s bid to expand its influence next door, with the regime halting gas exports to Iraq. Iranian officials claim that the flow was cut off to enable maintenance on their shared pipeline, but the end result is that Iraqis were left scrambling to fuel their power plants.
The problems are affecting Iran’s power grid as well. Accustomed to periodic shutoffs in their natural gas supplies, most of the country’s electricity plants use inefficient dual boilers that can run on either gas or heavy fuel oil (mazut). Last month, however, the government barred plants in Arak, Isfahan, and Karaj from using fuel oil, claiming a need to curb urban pollution. Although mazut does indeed exacerbate local pollution caused by inefficient vehicle exhaust, rumors have also circulated that Iran is running short of fuel oil after producing less of it than normal this year.
According to Ahmad Moradi, a member of the parliamentary energy committee, the national grid now has a shortfall of 20,000 megawatts due to “insufficient generation capacity, problems at power stations, and aging transmission lines.” A recently leaked 2023 report from Iran’s National Supreme Energy Council showed that the country’s power plants were able to produce only 75% of their nominal peak capacity. Some older power plants are being decommissioned, but Iran has struggled to add new ones; in the meantime, 20% of the power produced is lost in transmission. Seemingly uneasy about public and foreign perceptions of this deterioration, the Energy Ministry has blocked monthly reports on electricity since June 2023.
Of course, Iran has faced periodic electricity shortages for many years, but they used to occur mainly in winter, when some people turned to super-cheap electric heat when gas supplies proved erratic. Today, electricity is becoming scarce year round, spurring authorities to announce blackouts for two hours per day in major cities. Pezeshkian tried to justify such measures on November 20: “Since our [fuel] reserves are low and we may face problems in the winter, we have to adjust the reserves of power plants now to avoid future problems.” Yet former oil CEO Abbas Kazemi offered a glaring example of deeper problems in the government’s energy policies: “Instead of stockpiling diesel for winter, the Abadan Refinery sold 400 to 500 million liters meant for power plants.” Meanwhile, complaints about the blackouts are rife on social media, with many commenters speculating about potential social unrest similar to the previous waves of mass protest that have rocked Iran in recent years.
Pressure on Oil Product Imports
The regime’s mismanagement makes it vulnerable to a form of pressure that the United States used to great effect after 2010: discouraging the sale of oil products to Iran. At the time, overwhelming bipartisan majority votes in Congress forced an unenthusiastic Obama administration to institute this measure under the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act (CISADA). Specifically, the government was authorized to levy sanctions on companies and governments for “providing goods or services that could directly and significantly contribute to the enhancement of Iran’s ability to import refined petroleum products, including insurance or reinsurance services; financing or brokering services; or ships and shipping services.”
Tehran responded by producing large amounts of low-quality gasoline that damaged car engines and increased air pollution, to the public’s considerable annoyance. Investments in extra refinery capacity even enabled Iran to become a gasoline exporter for several years, but soaring domestic demand eventually outpaced it—the country now consumes at least 120 million liters per day, up from 104 million in 2022 and 91 million in 2021. As a result, Iran is once again dependent on imported oil products, including 15 million liters of gasoline per day. According to Energypress.ir, “In the next ten years, Iran will need to import $25 billion of gasoline annually, which is equal to half the country’s oil export capacity.”
Once the Trump administration takes office, it will likely seek new tools to pressure Tehran, and European powers may support (or at least tolerate) this effort given their anger at the regime’s ongoing nuclear provocations (e.g., decreasing cooperation with international inspections; ramping up uranium enrichment). Toward that end, the sanctions authority in CISADA could be reapplied to enable action against companies that provide insurance, financing, or shipping services for Iran’s importation of gasoline and other refined petroleum products.
Enforcing sanctions on Iran’s gasoline imports is more straightforward and less diplomatically fraught than sanctioning its oil exports, most of which go to small refineries in China. This gasoline is produced at foreign refineries that may be reluctant to incur U.S. penalties just for the sake of a relatively small customer like Iran. Moreover, the governments of the countries in question may not be eager not to cross Trump. The most active sources of oil products for Iran are the United Arab Emirates, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. Pressing companies and officials in these jurisdictions could give Washington a particularly effective way to press Tehran.
*Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and director of its Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy.

Video Link From The Washington Institute/Pannel Discussion with 4 expert look at the stunning battlefield advances of rebel forces in Syria and the implications for regional and global security/ Title Of The Pannel : The (Next) Battle for Northwest Syria: U.S. Policy Implications
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/12/137589/
December 4, 2024
Participants in the the pannel discussion
Mouaz Moustafa, Anna Borshchevskaya, Andrew J. Tabler, Aaron Y. Zelin
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/next-battle-northwest-syria-us-policy-implications
*As rebel forces continue their surprise northwestern offensive against the Assad regime, foreign actors are mulling what, if any, consequences this campaign will have for their other pressing security challenges in the region. Will it presage a terrorist resurgence from Syria given the persistent Islamic State presence in the area and the extremist pedigree of the group leading the offensive? What will Russia and Iran do in response to the latest blow against the legitimacy of their Damascus client? Will the fighting lead Syria’s Arab neighbors to pause their “normalization” of Bashar al-Assad?
The Washington Institute is pleased to announce a virtual Policy Forum with four distinguished experts, to be moderated by Institute senior fellow and former Pentagon official Elizabeth Dent:
*Mouaz Moustafa, Executive Director, Syrian Emergency Task Force
*Anna Borshchevskaya, the Harold Grinspoon Senior Fellow in the Institute’s Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East; author of Putin’s War in Syria
*Andrew Tabler, the Institute’s Martin J. Gross Senior Fellow, former director for Syria at the National Security Council, and former senior advisor to the State Department’s special envoy for Syria engagement
*Aaron Zelin, the Institute’s Gloria and Ken Levy Senior Fellow, creator of its interactive Islamic State Worldwide Activity Map, and coeditor of its recent compilation Jihadist Governance and Statecraft
The Policy Forum series is made possible through the generosity of the Florence and Robert Kaufman Family.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/next-battle-northwest-syria-us-policy-implications