English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For August 16/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the
lccc Site
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2024/english.august16.24.htm
News Bulletin Achieves
Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006
Click On
The Below Link To Join Eliasbejjaninews whatsapp group
https://chat.whatsapp.com/FPF0N7lE5S484LNaSm0MjW
اضغط
على الرابط في
أعلى للإنضمام
لكروب
Eliasbejjaninews whatsapp group
Elias Bejjani/Click
on the below link to subscribe to my youtube channel
الياس
بجاني/اضغط
على الرابط في
أسفل للإشتراك في
موقعي ع اليوتيوب
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCAOOSioLh1GE3C1hp63Camw
Bible Quotations For today
See what love the Father has given us, that
we should be called children of God; and that is what we are
First Letter of John 03/01-10: “See what love the Father has given us, that we
should be called children of God; and that is what we are. The reason the world
does not know us is that it did not know him.Beloved, we are God’s children now;
what we will be has not yet been revealed. What we do know is this: when he is
revealed, we will be like him, for we will see him as he is.And all who have
this hope in him purify themselves, just as he is pure. Everyone who commits sin
is guilty of lawlessness; sin is lawlessness. You know that he was revealed to
take away sins, and in him there is no sin. No one who abides in him sins; no
one who sins has either seen him or known him. Little children, let no one
deceive you. Everyone who does what is right is righteous, just as he is
righteous. Everyone who commits sin is a child of the devil; for the devil has
been sinning from the beginning. The Son of God was revealed for this purpose,
to destroy the works of the devil. Those who have been born of God do not sin,
because God’s seed abides in them; they cannot sin, because they have been born
of God. The children of God and the children of the devil are revealed in this
way: all who do not do what is right are not from God, nor are those who do not
love their brothers and sisters.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on August 15-16/2024
Hochstein in Beirut: No Time to Waste to Reach Diplomatic Solution
Hochstein Surprises Lebanese Opposition by Proposing Holding Presidential
Elections as Soon as Possible
France Applauds Lebanon’s Self-Restraint
US Imposes Sanctions Targeting Houthi, Hezbollah Trade, Treasury Dept Says
Naim Qassem: ‘The Strike Against Israel Will Take Place’
Hezbollah Expands Its Range of Attacks in Israel
Hamiyeh Launches Rehabilitation Plan for Lebanon’s Highways
Al-Rai: ‘Lebanon Needs to Elect a President’
Southern Lebanon: Intense Israeli Raids
Political Obstacles to Building a New Airport: A Closer Look
Alain Aoun, Abi-Ramia, and soon Kanaan: Ex-FPM Political Refugees
Moronic Disintegration of the FPM: Bassil's Free unPatriotic Bowel Movement/Hanibaal
Atheos/Lebanon Iznogood/August 15/2024
Is Lebanon Done with Hezbollah or Is Hezbollah Done?/Salam Zaatari/This Is
Beirut/August 15/2024
Israel Proposes a 6-Month Renewal of UNIFIL’s Mandate/Bassam Abou Zeid/This Is
Beirut/August 15/2024
Assumption Day: When Culture and Nature Unite/Marie-Christine Tayah/This Is
Beirut/August 15/2024
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on August 15-16/2024
More than 40,000 Palestinians Have Been
Killed in Gaza, Territory’s Health Ministry Says
Mediators to Hold New Gaza Cease-Fire Talks, Hoping to Head Off an Even Wider
War
With Gaza's death toll over 40,000, here's the conflict by numbers
Hamas says guard who killed Israeli hostage acted 'in revenge' against group's
instructions
Report: Trump, Netanyahu Speak about Gaza Hostage-Ceasefire Deal
Canada demands investigation into water well destroyed by Israeli troops in Gaza
Turkey, Iraq sign accord on military, security, counter-terrorism cooperation
Iranian military adviser dies following injuries in Syria
Iran police shot a woman while trying to seize her car over hijab law violation,
activists say
Houthi militant secures the vicinity of United Nations offices where people
Ukraine's top general disobeyed Zelenskyy and blew up the Nord Stream pipeline
without permission, report says
Türkiye, Iraq Sign Accord on Military, Security, Counter-Terrorism Cooperation
Iraq Says Announcement on Date for End to US-Led Coalition Mission Postponed
Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on August 15-16/2024
Iran is weaker than we think. It’s time to take advantage./Saeed Ghasseminejad
and Richard Goldberg/The Hill/August 15/2024
Iran is Creeping into the International Arms Market/Behnam Ben Taleblu/The
National Interest/August 14/2024
France: Political Chaos/Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute./August 15, 2024
Deterrence does not work when dealing with terrorists - editorial/Jerusalem Post
editorial/August 15/2024
Israel forgot about Iran's nuclear threat - will it pay the price? Sources are
mixed on if Jerusalem is ready to stop the bomb/Yonah Jeremy Bob/Jerusalem
Post/August 15/2024
Iran Could Retaliate, But a War Is Unlikely/Huda al-Husseini/Asharq Al-Awsat/August
15/2024
Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on August 15-16/2024
Hochstein in Beirut: No Time to Waste
to Reach Diplomatic Solution
Asharq Al-Awsat/August 15/2024
US special envoy Amos Hochstein stressed from Beirut on Wednesday that there was
no longer time to waste to reach a ceasefire in Gaza that would in turn lead to
a diplomatic solution that would end the escalation between Hezbollah and
Lebanon. Hochstein, tasked with shuttle diplomacy between Lebanon and Israel,
spoke to journalists after meeting Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, as
the region anxiously anticipates retaliatory attacks from Iran and the allied
Lebanese Hezbollah group on Israel. Hochstein did not arrive to Lebanon from Tel
Aviv, as was expected. Rather, he flew in on a Lebanese Middle East Airlines
flight from a European country. He met with Berri, caretaker Prime Minister
Najib Mikati, army commander Joseph Aoun and a number of opposition MPs. Berri,
a key Hezbollah ally, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the meeting was Hochstein was
“reassuring”, saying: “The situation today is better than yesterday.”
Hochstein’s visit is a message from US President Joe Biden that “he hasn’t
forgotten about Lebanon.” Berri did not divulge the details of the more than an
hour-long meeting with Hochstein, but his comments align with information that
said the envoy had requested during his meetings in Lebanon that escalation be
avoided before the upcoming Gaza ceasefire talks.Berri said: “Strong efforts are
being exerted to reach a ceasefire.” He spoke of “very intense pressure to reach
an agreement that should reflect positively on Lebanon.”
Speaking to reporters after his talks with Berri, Hochstein stated that they
discussed the framework of the ceasefire and “we agreed that “there is no more
time to waste and there's no more valid excuses from any party for any further
delay.”“The deal would also help enable a diplomatic resolution here in
Lebanon,” the envoy added. It is critical to take advantage of “this window for
diplomatic action” to end the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, he stressed, adding that
now was the right time. “The more time goes by of escalated tensions, the more
time goes by of daily conflict, the more the odds and the chances go up for
accidents, for mistakes, for inadvertent targets to be hit that could easily
cause escalation that goes out of control,” Hochstein warned.Moreover, he
revealed he believed that a solution to the conflict could be reached “today”,
adding that he realizes that some parties want to tie it to other conflicts.
“This is not our position,” he noted. "We continue to believe that a diplomatic
resolution is achievable because we continue to believe that no one truly wants
a full-scale war between Lebanon and Israel," Hochstein stressed. For his part,
Berri urged the need to end the Israeli war on Gaza and Lebanon, expressing his
“great alarm” with Israel’s political and military escalation, citing the
assassinations of Hamas politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and top
Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut last month. He also cited its
ongoing massacres against the Palestinian people, the latest of which took place
at a school over the weekend and left scores dead. “This policy demonstrates
Israel’s determination to go ahead with the military escalation and scuttling
any effort to stop the war,” remarked the speaker.He added that Lebanon is
committed to extending the term of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL)
in line with resolution 1701. Lebanon has been demanding the full implementation
of the resolution since its adoption in 2006, he declared.
Hochstein Surprises Lebanese Opposition by Proposing Holding Presidential
Elections as Soon as Possible
Asharq Al-Awsat/August 15/2024
US special envoy Amos Hochstein surprised on Wednesday the Lebanese opposition
by proposing holding presidential elections as soon as possible. The envoy met a
delegation from the opposition on the sidelines of his visit to Beirut where he
met with Speaker Nabih Berri and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati for talks
on de-escalating the soaring tensions between Hezbollah and Israel. One of the
lawmakers who met with Hochstein said he focused with Berri and Mikati on the
urgent need to elect a president. Lebanon has been without a president since
October 2022 when the term of Michel Aoun ended without the election of a
successor because of political squabbling between various parties. The MP said
that efforts had been made before to hold the elections, and now, they are being
tied to the situation in the South. It is necessary to elect a president and
appoint a new government so that they can both oversee the implementation of
United Nations Security Council resolution 1701 and the reconstruction of the
South, he added. Sources following Hochstein’s talks in Beirut said he hoped
that enough opportunity would be given to the Doha ceasefire talks on Gaza.
Reaching a ceasefire will impact the southern front in Lebanon, he added, while
stressing the need for intense contacts to reach permanent stability and the
gradual implementation of resolution 1701.
France Applauds Lebanon’s Self-Restraint
Asharq Al-Awsat/August 15/2024
France's Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne said on Thursday he hopes for
continued non-escalation from Lebanon after Israel killed a senior Hezbollah
commander in Beirut last month. In a meeting with Lebanese caretaker Prime
Minister Najib Mikati, Sejourne expressed appreciation for "self-restraint in
this difficult period" in the region, according to Lebanese state news agency
NNA. "We can only be silent, patient and praying in this difficult period," NNA
also cited Mikati as saying following the meeting.
US Imposes Sanctions Targeting Houthi, Hezbollah Trade,
Treasury Dept Says
Asharq Al-Awsat/August 15/2024
The United States on Thursday issued more sanctions targeting Houthi and
Hezbollah trade networks, the US Treasury Department said, as Washington
increases pressure on Tehran and the Iranian-backed groups. The Treasury
Department in a statement said it targeted companies, individuals and vessels
accused of being involved in the shipment of Iranian commodities, including oil
and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to Yemen and the United Arab Emirates on
behalf of a Houthi financial official's network. It said the revenue from Sa’id
al-Jamal's network helps finance the Houthis' targeting of shipping in the Red
Sea and civilian infrastructure. Attacks on vessels in the Red Sea by the
Iran-aligned Houthi militias have disrupted a shipping route vital to east-west
trade, with prolonged rerouting of shipments pushing freight rates higher and
causing congestion in Asian and European ports. Also targeted on Thursday were
Hezbollah shipments of LPG, including through the designation of a Hong
Kong-based ship manager and operator as well as several tankers. The Treasury
said the Hezbollah-controlled Talaqi Group used two of the tankers to ship LPG
worth tens of millions of dollars from Iran to China. “Today’s action
underscores our continued commitment to disrupting Iran’s primary source of
funding to its regional terrorist proxies like Lebanese Hizballah and the
Houthis,” said Treasury's Acting Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial
Intelligence, Bradley Smith. “Our message is clear: those who seek to finance
these groups’ destabilizing activities will be held to account.”Thursday's
action freezes any US assets of those targeted and generally bars Americans from
dealing with them. Financial institutions and others that engage in certain
transactions with them also risk being hit with sanctions.
Naim Qassem: ‘The Strike Against Israel Will Take Place’
This Is Beirut/August 15/2024
Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, stressed on Thursday that
“the decision to respond to Israel has been made and will be implemented.”This
statement by Hezbollah’s number two comes at a time when a meeting sponsored by
the United States, Qatar and Egypt is being held in Doha to relaunch talks for a
ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the release of hostages held by Hamas since
October 7, 2023. Naim Qassem also described the visit of the US President’s
envoy Amos Hochstein to Beirut as a “show,” adding that “the United States wants
to show that it is acting, while it is talking in a vacuum and has no specific
proposals to put forward.”Israel’s Channel 13 reported that “Israel now believes
that Hezbollah is determined to respond to the assassination of one of its
leaders, Fouad Shokr.”It added that “Hezbollah (…) has not yet determined its
targets.”As a reminder, these reprisals, threatened by Hezbollah and its Iranian
sponsor, follow the assassination of Hamas bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh – blamed
on Israel – which took place in Tehran on July 31, and that of Hezbollah’s
senior military officer and close advisor to its Secretary-General, Fouad Shokr,
the next day. Shokr killed by the Israeli army in Haret Hreik, in the heart of
Beirut’s southern suburbs, Hezbollah’s stronghold.
Hezbollah Expands Its Range of Attacks in Israel
This Is Beirut/August 15/2024
Early Thursday evening, an Israeli drone struck the area between the localities
of Deir Siryan and Taybeh in southern Lebanon, setting off fires. Thursday
morning’s phosphorus bombardment of a house in Khiam caused a fire and left “two
injured Islamic Message Scouts rescue workers, one in Khiam and a second in
Qabrikha,” according to an update relayed by Lebanon’s national news agency (NNA).
In connection with the incident, the Ministry of Health’s Emergency Operations
Center reported that the phosphorus shells had caused “severe suffocation to the
two wounded, necessitating their admission to the government hospital in
Marjayoun, where they were treated by the emergency services.”Other Israeli
bombardments targeted residential areas in Qabrikha, leaving “a ten-year-old
child wounded.” The child was admitted to Tibnine government hospital for
treatment. Artillery fire also hit the localities of Taybeh and Tallet al-Awaida.
The Israeli settlement of Shamir targeted for the first time. For its part,
Hezbollah announced in a statement on Thursday afternoon that it had struck “for
the first time at the settlement of Shamir”, in retaliation for Wednesday
evening’s Israeli raid on Marjayoun, which left eight dead and eight wounded,
including a three-year-old child. The pro-Iranian group also claimed to have
targeted Israeli positions in Ma’ayan Baruch and a gathering of soldiers in
Malkiya. It also launched “an air attack with a squadron of drones” on the
Khirbet Ma’ar site, “precisely” targeting soldiers’ positions in response to
Wednesday’s strike against Abbasiya in the Tyre caza, which resulted in more
than seventeen injuries. In turn, the Israeli army announced that “a drone had
crashed in an open area near Arab al-Aramsha, on the border with Lebanon,
without causing any injuries.”
Additionally, early Thursday evening, alarm sirens sounded in Maskaf Am in the
Upper Galilee, warning of the risk of rocket fire.
Hamiyeh Launches Rehabilitation Plan for Lebanon’s Highways
This Is Beirut/August 15/2024
With southern Lebanon under Israeli bombardment, caretaker Minister of Transport
and Public Works, Ali Hamiyeh, chose to announce, from Nabatiyeh on Thursday,
the launch of a project to rehabilitate and maintain Lebanon’s highways. This
includes general maintenance, such as road signage and traffic lights, and the
funding of a system to ensure citizen safety at night. In his speech, Hamiyeh
indicated that normally maintenance projects for international highways start
from Beirut, but this time the decision was made to launch them from Nabatiyeh.
Regarding the funding for these large-scale works, the minister affirmed that
his ministry has funds approved by Parliament in the 2024 budget, and expressed
hoped that additional amounts would be allocated in the 2025 budget. Responding
to critics, he stated that he would not hesitate to allocate funds to meet the
needs of southern Lebanon’s residents for infrastructure and bridge maintenance,
asserting that “the constitution has given him the power to spend public money
as he sees fit.”
Al-Rai: ‘Lebanon Needs to Elect a President’
This Is Beirut/August 15/2024
Maronite Patriarch Mar Bechara Boutros al-Rai asserted on Thursday that “Lebanon
needs to elect a president because he is the only guarantor of unity in
diversity.”In this context, al-Rai cited Article 49 of the Constitution during
the Mass of the Feast of Annunciation of Virgin Mary in Diman, which stipulates
that the president of the Republic is “the sole head of state and the symbol of
national unity.”Al-Rai also focused on the aspects that unite Christianity and
Islam, stressing the need to “return to them and invest them in our national
life, which is the basis for the system of cultural and religious pluralism in
Lebanon.”“A Lebanon of one opinion imposed by one person or group is not
Lebanon; a Lebanon of one religion is not Lebanon,” he hammered home. Al-Rai
concluded that “by pluralism, we mean diversity,” affirming that “this is a
fundamental feature of Lebanon’s political system.”The patriarch also pointed
out that “Mary is honored in both the Christian and Muslim religions,” recalling
that the feast of the Annunciation (March 25) is a national holiday in Lebanon.
Southern Lebanon: Intense Israeli Raids
This Is Beirut/August 15/2024
Tensions continued to rise on the southern front on Thursday as heavy Israeli
artillery was reported on the towns of Khiam, Deir Mimas, and Naqoura. As a
result, a house in Khiam caught fire, with no injuries reported until the
moment. According to Israeli media, sirens sounded in the Western Galilee “after
a suspected drone breached Israeli airspace.” In this context, the Israeli
Channel 12 announced that “air defenses intercepted a suspicious object in
Western Galilee.”Sirens also sounded in the northern Israeli towns of Ghajar,
Kfar Yuval, and Maayan Baruch. On the other hand, the number of injuries in
Wednesday night’s strike on Marjayoun increased to eight, including a
three-year-old child, according to an update from the Ministry of Health’s
Emergency Operations Center. Hezbollah later mourned two of its fighters,
Mohammed Ali Badr el-Din and Hussein Yassine Chaaito. The pro-Iranian group also
claimed responsibility for an attack on the command of the Al-Sahel battalion in
the Beit Hillel barracks on Wednesday evening and another on the Meeyan position
on Thursday morning. On Wednesday night, a fire broke out in Deir Mimas and on
the outskirts of Qlayaa, following Israeli artillery bombardment. The Israeli
Army also dropped flares on Markaba.
Political Obstacles to Building a New Airport: A Closer
Look
Joanne Naoum/This Is Beirut/August 15/2024
With Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport as Lebanon’s only operational
airport, the urgent need for a second airport is critical. Lebanon teeters on
the brink of an all-out war, fueled by the Gaza conflict and the ongoing
cross-border skirmishes between Hezbollah and the Israeli army. Should
tomorrow’s Doha negotiations fail to prevent a broader Middle East conflict,
establishing another airport – strategically distant from Hezbollah’s stronghold
– becomes even more imperative. What prevents the opening of another airport in
Lebanon?
“The primary obstacle”
Lebanese lawyer and political activist Majd Harb considers the primary obstacle
to the creation of a new airport in Lebanon to be a political one. In an
interview with This is Beirut, Harb explained that while members of parliament
and cabinet ministers have publicly expressed support for the project,
significant hurdles remain in the execution phase. “The major hiccup is the
approval of ‘the state within the state,’” he said.
He stated, “What we are proposing is a law that will technically force MPs to
put their money where their mouth is.” Harb’s approach aims to address this
challenge by offering a legal framework designed to transform military airports
into civilian ones at minimal cost.
He criticized the anticipated excuses that might be used to obstruct the
initiative, such as issues with legislation, the absence of a president, a lack
of funds, or timing. “The real test is here and now,” Harb asserted. “All these
excuses can be debunked by the legal and constitutional validity of the draft
law we presented at the press conference.”Harb addressed the current challenges
in financing the airport development project, highlighting that the
Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Act, which facilitates the
Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) model, is not feasible at present. The obstacles
include unfulfilled government commitments and undecided policy measures. He
emphasized that if the government acts effectively, the BOT model could allow
for the construction and operation of airports at no cost. Successful BOT
projects in countries such as Turkey, Jordan, Japan and Malaysia illustrate the
potential of this approach. However, due to the government’s inaction in
enacting the PPP law, the project remains stalled. As a solution, Harb proposed
seeking a credit line from the central bank to finance the project. Currently,
discussions are underway with members of Parliament to draft and propose the
necessary legislation, pending their recommendations and approval.
“Centralized control”
For his part, Kataeb MP Elias Hankach asserted that Hezbollah is the primary
obstacle to the opening of another airport in Lebanon. “All the control they
exert is centralized at one airport (Rafic Hariri International Airport), where
they manage all the benefits, arrangements and control over data and passenger
manifests, giving them complete control,” he stated in an interview with This is
Beirut. Given this level of control, Hankach wondered why Hezbollah would ever
agree to the opening of another airport. He emphasized the urgent need for a
second airport, especially during these challenging times, pointing out that
“there is already a ready airport: the Hamat Airport in the heights of Batroun,
currently used by the Lebanese Army, the US Embassy and others.” He noted that
the airport is well-equipped and requires only minimal maintenance to
accommodate civilian flights. To underscore his point, Hankach cited the example
of the newly constructed airport in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, which cost $6 billion
and can handle 100 million passengers. “Meanwhile, in Lebanon, $70 to $80
billion of Lebanese deposits are being squandered,” he said. Hankach also
highlighted that the cost of making Hamat Airport fully operational would be
relatively low, “especially since it’s already halfway equipped, the runway is
functional, and its location is both strategic and secure.”
“Tajaddod agrees”
On Wednesday, the Tajaddod Bloc signed a draft law proposed by Majd Harb for the
operation of Qlayaat Airport. MP Michel Moawad emphasized the urgent need for
another airport in Lebanon to enhance aviation safety, boost the economy and
promote balanced development. He criticized the government for not fulfilling
its duties and called for allocating funds to study and open additional
airports. Several other MPs will convene on Monday to discuss this issue, which
is believed to be a necessity at this critical time.
آلان عون وأبي رميا وقريبا كنعان لاجئون سياسيون سابقون من
التيار الوطني الحر/تفكك تيار عون-باسيل اللاوطني والغبي
Alain Aoun, Abi-Ramia, and soon Kanaan: Ex-FPM Political Refugees
Moronic Disintegration of the FPM: Bassil's Free unPatriotic Bowel Movement
Hanibaal Atheos/Lebanon Iznogood/August 15/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/08/133306/
One more is about to slam the door on his way out, and that is FPM's Ibrahim
Kanaan, a well-respected and hard-working MP. Pretty soon, only the lousy scum
servants of Dear Leader Bassil will be left in the Flatulent Prostitute
Movement. The string of dismissals and resignations continues unabated from the
ranks of a party, once a promising candidate for a modern democratic party, that
has become a typical feudal, dictatorial, tribal, familial Christian Lebanese
party. It is so pathetic and so disappointing that Michel Aoun's legacy ends in
such a putrid disarray, thanks to his bazaar haggler son-in-law Gebran Bassil.
Instead of the promises made to his followers during his time in exile, Michel
Aoun has failed to deliver on establishing a party along a modern model of
political parties: No inheritance, no cronyism, based on democratic practices,
reliance on merit and a secular foundation.... What happened? Aoun was seduced
by his son-in-law whose ambition was to seize power and never relinquish it,
just like with the other Lebanese Christian political parties. Aoun was also
seduced by the siren song of becoming a president, if only he betrayed his
principles and switched his political discourse upside down: Bassil made the old
man sign a toilet paper "memorandum of 'disgraceful' understanding" with the
foreign-made radical Shiite fundamentalist terrorist organization of Hezbollah
that has been destroying Lebanon ever since it erupted on the scene in 1981
right after the Islamic Theocracy took power in Iran in 1979 and proceeded to
implant itself in the Bekaa Valley where it created Hezbollah.
No one suspected that a man like Aoun whose career prior to 2006 was one of a
rebel hero who opposed all the enemies, domestic or foreign, of the Lebanese
state, an army general who battled the Syrians and their criminal allies to
protect the presidential palace in 1984, who fought against all the puppet
leaders that Syria imposed on Lebanon during its occupation... No one suspected
that he would become a slave, a traitor, a puppet to his former enemies, just so
he becomes president.
And president he became thanks to the scuttling of the constitutional process by
his ally Hezbollah during two and a half years. And the irony is that Hezbollah
is doing the exact same thing now by scuttling the constitutional process again
to force the election of its new puppet Sleiman Frangiyeh.
Bassil is like Iznogoud l'Infame. He is a lowly vizir who wants to become Caliph
in lieu of the Caliph (i.e. president of Lebanon), just like his father-in-law
did, by violating the rules. And he has so far dragged Aoun's followers along
with him. But the dissonance between what these followers stood for since 1988
and where Bassil has taken them is now too unbearable that many are abandoning
the sinking FPM ship.
Not only does Bassil demand blind allegiance of his imbecile acerebral followers
- as if he was Amin Gemayel or Samir Geagea or Sleiman Frangiyeh, all
well-steeped feudal tribal leaders - but he cracks the whip when they dare
dissent. BAsed on how he runs his desintegrating party, I dare not imagine what
he'll do if he becomes president of this miserablre country.
Let's see, ever since Bassil hijacked Michel Aoun's party by signing his
sanitary pad with Hezbollah, they have been dumping the party. From the early
ones to the latest ones, with Kanaan soon to become the very latest.
The early ones did not have sufficient political ambition to sacrifice their
principles and betray their conscience. Then there were the weak greedy ones
whose political ambition overrode their principles, so they sold the latter and
followed like miserable pawns their new leader, the DEAR LEADER, SON-IN-LAW OF
THE SUPREME LEADER, Gebran Bassil. He, of course, made them ambassadors, MPs and
ministers. But the hemorroids in the conscience of the hold-outs kept itching,
and now they have to scratch. They can't take it anymore.
Alain Aoun, who ought to be the Crown Prince (he's a nephew, with 1/4 of the
Supreme Leader's genome, though he did not travel down the vas deferens from the
left testicle of the Dear Leader) was dismissed from the party by Gebran Bassil
last week. Bassil is a son-in-law of the Supreme Leader; his claims to political
power rest entirely on his regularly consummating his marriage with the Supreme
Leader's daughter. How dare a non-spermatic intruder into the Supreme Leader's
divine circle evict a 25% spermatic heir? Unheard of in the political inbred
family farms of Christian Lebanon.
This booting of Alain Aoun prompted another politically ambitious numskull
traitor to his own conscience to resign. What an act of courage after 18 years
of kissing the ring of Bassil to become MP and minister. But I'm being generous
calling Simon Abi-Ramia's resignation an act of courage. What it is in fact is
that Abi-Ramia sees Hezbollah's end coming soon, what with the war drums beating
all over the place. By resigning NOW from the party that provided Hezbollah with
a Christian fig leaf to continue its undermining and destruction of Lebanon on
behalf of Iran, a party that has enabled Hezbollah to become the existential
threat it represents today to Lebanon, now that the end is near, Abi-Ramia has
in fact acted in pure cowardice.
But MP Ibrahim Kanaan might be given the benefit of the doubt, even though he
too betrayed his conscience for 18 years. At least, he's a hard-working,
well-informed MP. So he retains respect with many of his enemies. But he has now
announced that we will seek to revive dialogue between the insiders of the party
and those who have either left or been excluded from it. Kanaan's initiative,
presented during a press conference at his office in Jdeideh (Metn district) and
streamed live on his Facebook page, included five main demands:
1- Reverse the recent exclusions and resignations.
2- End the ongoing media conflict between those he described as members of the
"same house"
3- Set a one-week deadline to resolve disputes.
4- Enact reforms to the party's decision-making process to enhance member
participation, and
5- Reprioritize the objectives of the parliamentary bloc of the FPM.
Bassil is a stubborn donkey. He is unlikely to agree to these demands.
Therefore, expect Kanaan to resign early next week as I had predicted a couple
of weeks ago
https://lebanoniznogood.blogspot.com/2024/08/alain-aoun-useful-idiocy-with-stench-of.html
Is Lebanon Done with Hezbollah or Is Hezbollah Done?
Salam Zaatari/This Is Beirut/August 15/2024
When you browse X, it feels as though a civil war is unfolding between Hezbollah
supporters and the rest of the Lebanese population. The sentiment among ordinary
Lebanese citizens echoes the days when the PLO attempted to dominate the
country, acting as an entitled bully under the guise of their cause. There is
growing frustration with Hezbollah’s policies and the behavior of their
supporters on social media. This has provoked a response from far-right
radicals, trapping the nation in a relentless cycle of hate. Hezbollah and Iran
have effectively used propaganda and religious ideology to solidify their
influence and control over their supporters. By framing their political and
military actions within a narrative of religious duty and resistance, they tap
into deep-seated religious beliefs and cultural identity.
This religious framing allows them to justify their actions as part of a divine
struggle, or “jihad,” against perceived enemies.
Through media channels, religious sermons, and symbolic events like Ashura, they
disseminate messages that blend religious fervor with political ideology,
ensuring loyalty among their base and creating a powerful sense of identity and
purpose among their followers. This combination of propaganda and religion not
only mobilizes support but also suppresses dissent, as opposing their narrative
can be seen as opposing their religious and cultural values. Anyone who
disagrees with them or prefers to be loyal to the Lebanese cause rather than any
other cause is labeled as a “Zionist.”
Echoes of History: Lessons from the Rise and Fall of Militant Groups
The allure of power has long been a driving force for militant groups,
propelling them from the fringes of society to positions of influence and
control. However, this ascent often breeds a dangerous sense of invincibility,
both among the groups themselves and their fervent supporters. Fueled by
ideological zeal and military successes, these groups frequently embark on a
power trip, believing themselves immune to the forces that have historically led
to the downfall of other similar movements.
Yet, history shows that this very ego and overconfidence can be their undoing.
From the Taliban in Afghanistan to the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka, many militant
groups have fallen not solely due to external pressures but because their
inflated sense of power blinds them to the realities of their vulnerabilities.
Let’s explore how the intoxicating mix of power, ideology, and ego drives
militant groups towards their demise.
Throughout history, many ideological militant groups have risen to prominence,
only to eventually fall due to a combination of internal and external pressures.
These groups, driven by political, religious, or social ideologies, often
sustain themselves through a mix of popular support, external funding, and a
clear, often militant, agenda. However, their eventual decline is usually marked
by several key signs, which may also apply to Hezbollah.
One prominent example is the Irish Republican Army (IRA), which sought to end
British rule in Northern Ireland and unify Ireland. The IRA maintained a
prolonged campaign of violence for much of the 20th century, deeply rooted in
nationalist and anti-colonial ideology. However, over time, the group faced
internal divisions, loss of public support, and pressure from both the British
and Irish governments. The eventual signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998
marked the beginning of the end for the IRA as a militant force, as many of its
objectives were addressed through political channels, leading to its
demilitarization and the cessation of its violent activities.
Similarly, the Tamil Tigers (LTTE) in Sri Lanka, an ethnic separatist group,
waged a violent campaign for an independent Tamil state. The group was notorious
for its use of suicide bombings and other forms of terrorism. However, the LTTE
faced increasing military pressure from the Sri Lankan government, coupled with
dwindling international support due to its extremist tactics. By 2009, the LTTE
was militarily defeated, leading to its disbandment and the end of its militant
activities.
Several symptoms typically signal the impending decline of militant groups:
Loss of External Support: Many militant groups rely heavily on foreign funding
and weapons. The loss of such support, often due to shifts in international
alliances or sanctions, can cripple their operational capacity.
Internal Divisions: Ideological groups often splinter over disagreements about
strategy, leadership, or ideological purity. Such divisions weaken the group
from within, making it less effective in pursuing its goals.
Diminished Popular Support: A militant group’s survival often depends on its
ability to maintain popular support among the local population. When its actions
lead to widespread suffering or if it is perceived as prioritizing external
interests over local needs, support can erode rapidly.
Counterinsurgency efforts can severely disrupt Hezbollah’s operations, but they
are unlikely to eliminate them entirely. The group’s power has proven to be
exceedingly difficult to fully dismantle.
Hezbollah’s Path Ahead: Navigating Uncertain Terrain
Hezbollah, which emerged in the 1980s as a resistance movement against Israeli
occupation in Lebanon, has evolved into a powerful political and military force
in the region. They are the Iranian ‘Wagner’ version.
However, it shares several characteristics with other ideological militant
groups that have fallen in the past. Dependency on Iran: Hezbollah’s military
and financial strength are closely tied to Iranian support. Iran’s economic
struggles and international isolation, exacerbated by sanctions and internal
unrest, could reduce its ability to sustain Hezbollah’s operations indefinitely.
Internal and External Pressures: Lebanon’s ongoing economic crisis, coupled with
growing dissatisfaction among the Lebanese population, has put Hezbollah under
significant pressure. Widespread protests in 2019 and the aftermath of the 2020
Beirut explosion highlighted growing discontent with Hezbollah’s political
influence. Furthermore, international sanctions targeting Hezbollah’s financial
networks have further strained its capabilities.
Predicting Hezbollah’s future is complex. While the signs of decline seen in
other militant groups are present, Hezbollah has shown remarkable resilience.
Its deep integration into Lebanese society, both politically and socially, gives
it a stronger foundation than many other militant groups.
However, if Iran’s influence in the region wanes or if internal divisions within
Hezbollah grow, the group could face significant challenges. A combination of
sustained internal and external pressures might eventually lead to Hezbollah’s
decline or force it to transition into a purely political entity, much like the
IRA.
Hezbollah currently remains a powerful force, yet the historical patterns of
decline seen in other ideological militant groups suggest that its long-term
survival is not guaranteed. The group’s future will likely depend on its ability
to adapt to changing regional dynamics and maintain its base of support in an
increasingly volatile environment. In this current war, all parties will lose.
Even if they claim victory, it’s obvious that Israel and Iran’s proxies are
fighting for their existence, and in 18 months or so, either Israel or Iran will
have the upper hand, but it’s unlikely that the US will let Israel fail.
Eventually, a big settlement will be necessary for their survival, and
dismantling proxy militias will be a key element to future peace talks. The
world, including western governments, is tired of the Middle East. The Obama
doctrine of supporting Iran and its proxies died after the 7th of October, and
even Israel is becoming a burden. Therefore, the future of the region cannot be
drawn with the same players anymore.
Israel Proposes a 6-Month Renewal of UNIFIL’s Mandate
Bassam Abou Zeid/This Is Beirut/August 15/2024
There has been a proposal to renew the mandate for the United Nations Interim
Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL) south of the Litani river for six months instead of
one year. This is the first time — since Resolution 425 was adopted on March 19,
1978, establishing the UNIFIL forces and since Resolution 1701 was passed on
August 12, 2006, strengthening the number and duties of UNIFIL — that such an
issue is raised. Reports indicate that this proposal, initially communicated by
Israel to the United States and subsequently shared with the members of the
Security Council, was met with resistance from Lebanese officials who advocated
for the continuation of UNIFIL’s mandate for a full year. This Israeli proposal
came in the context of the ongoing war in the south and discussions about the
comprehensive implementation of Resolution 1701 on the day after the war ends.
According to the reports, Israel sought the shorter timeframe to assess UNIFIL’s
handling of Hezbollah’s military presence south of the Litani River, including
its ability to move freely and access private properties. A reassessment of
UNIFIL’s performance would follow at the end of these six months to determine
whether the mandate should be extended again as part of the effective
implementation of Resolution 1701. Lebanon’s UN mission was informed of this
proposal, leading Caretaker Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib to discuss the
matter with US representative to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, during his
recent visit to New York, according to the same information. Bou Habib
successfully argued for the year-long renewal of UNIFIL’s mandate. He also
briefed Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, and Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib
Mikati, asking them to raise the issue with any visiting American or French
officials. In this context, the surprise came from US envoy Amos Hochstein, who,
during his recent visit to Beirut, reintroduced the proposal to renew UNIFIL’s
mandate for six months. Subsequent discussions between Hochstein, Berri, Mikati,
and Bou Habib emphasized the importance of a full-year extension. Lebanese
official sources stated that the Lebanese side succeeded in convincing Hochstein
of the soundness of this proposal, but the ultimate challenge, according to
these sources, lies in ensuring that the issue does not resurface during the
Security Council session that will decide on the renewal in question. Lebanon is
counting on France’s role in this regard, especially since the French Foreign
Minister’s visit to Beirut took place before the Security Council meeting and
because France is directly involved in the mission and importance of UNIFIL,
holding the largest contingent within the force.
Assumption Day: When Culture and Nature Unite
Marie-Christine Tayah/This Is Beirut/August 15/2024
In the high mountains of Lebanon, Bruno Tabbal, an artist with a deep love for
nature, organizes rural and cultural initiatives that cater to all tastes. On
August 17, 2024, in celebration of the Assumption, an event organized by Snounou
will blend culture with village traditions in Chatine. Bruno Tabbal, a versatile
artist and nature enthusiast, founded Snounou, through which he organizes
seasonal rural tourism events that showcase the culinary flavors of Lebanese
villages. For this Assumption Day, he has decided to bring together lovers of
culture and nature under this same banner in the enchanting setting of Chatine.
This typical Lebanese village will come alive with carefully selected music,
accompanied by a hearty meal. Bruno Tabbal shares with This is Beirut his rural
initiatives and sheds light on this cultural event set in the heart of the
mountains. A true ode to freedom.
How did the idea for this project come about?
Having had the privilege of growing up in our mountains, I was determined to
share the joy of simple things, our rural heritage, with city-dwelling Lebanese,
expatriates, and foreign tourists alike. That’s how the Snounou initiative was
born, with the goal of promoting tourism and exploring the rich rural culture,
which is deeply rooted in culinary, cultural, and natural traditions. It’s been
eight years already since this project started. I can hardly believe it! This
dream keeps growing…
What is the added value of this event?
What Snounou offers above all is authenticity. We strive to organize days that
are rich not only in visits and discoveries but also in solid and meaningful
content. We take visitors on a journey through time, with well-researched
experiences designed to transport them to our rich past. We do our best to vary
the themes of each event to satisfy all tastes.
Why did you choose Chatine as the location for this event?
It’s the village of my childhood, even though I’m originally from Achrafieh… but
that’s a different story. This village shaped my personality and the artist I am
today. This is where it all began.
What keeps you motivated?
My belief in humanity. I believe in the warmth, conviviality, and generosity of
the Lebanese people and in their incredible potential. It’s essential to believe
in all of this. Otherwise, how could we go on? How could we preserve our
heritage? And without it, what would there be left?
Tell us about your upcoming event and its cultural dimension.
The Assumption of the Virgin Mary is deeply rooted in our rural traditions. It
is one of the most important celebrations in almost every village in Mount
Lebanon. This provides Snounou with the perfect occasion to organize a
traditional village festival in Chatine. Our visitors will be able to stroll
through the village square, discovering stalls offering local products and
handcrafted items made by the village residents. The young ones will also enjoy
activities at the fair organized especially by Les Bouffons. The evening will
continue with a musical program, where our guests can enjoy food and drinks from
the kiosks in the food court. All of this will take place in an authentically
rural atmosphere that reflects who we are.
As for the cultural dimension, the musical program, the highlight of the
evening, will feature covers of classics from our repertoire: Feyrouz, Nasri
Chamseddine, as well as Sabah, Wadih el Safi, and a selection of folk songs that
are unfortunately fading away. It’s an opportunity to revive the nostalgic
memory of our ancestors and a different way to preserve our rural cultural
heritage.
Do you believe in the power of culture in our country?
Absolutely. I recall a quote from Churchill, who, in response to those
suggesting cuts to cultural funding during World War II, said, “Then what are we
fighting for?” From this perspective, I assert that encouraging culture,
particularly our rural cultural heritage, is vital.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on August 15-16/2024
More than 40,000 Palestinians Have Been Killed in Gaza, Territory’s Health
Ministry Says
Asharq Al-Awsat/August 15/2024
More than 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza,
the territory’s Health Ministry said Thursday. Israel’s offensive has also
wounded 92,401 people and displaced over 85% of the population from their homes,
the ministry in Hamas-run Gaza said. It does not distinguish between civilians
and militants in its toll. The announcement came during yet another push from
international mediators to broker a ceasefire in the war, now in its 11th month.
The conflict began Oct. 7 after Hamas-led fighters attacked southern Israel,
killing some 1,200 people — most of them civilians — and dragging roughly 250
hostages to Gaza.Israel says 111 of the captives have not been released,
including the bodies of 39. The hostages include 15 women and two children under
the age of 5. In Gaza, health officials have struggled to fully identify the
dead as bodies stream into overwhelmed hospitals and morgues where they say the
count is compiled amid the chaos of war and displacement. In its most recent
detailed report on the dead, issued Thursday, the ministry said 40,005 people
have been killed. Health officials and civil defense workers say the true toll
is likely thousands higher, since many bodies remain buried under the rubble of
buildings destroyed in airstrikes. Israel’s air and ground offensive in Gaza has
been one of the most devastating military campaigns in recent history.
The bombardment and shelling have killed entire Palestinian families. With
cemeteries often unreachable, families fleeing Israeli airstrikes bury their
dead wherever possible — in backyards, along roadsides and under the staircases
of their homes. Israel says it aims to eliminate Hamas. It blames Hamas for
civilian deaths because fighters operate in civilian areas and have built
extensive tunnel networks underneath them. Israeli forces have regularly
targeted mosques, schools, hospitals and cemeteries where it claims fighters or
tunnels are located, often causing civilian casualties. The fighting has also
killed 329 Israeli soldiers. The Israeli military claims around 15,000 Hamas
fighters are among those killed in Gaza but has not provided evidence. Nearly
85% of Gaza’s 2.3 million people have been driven from their homes, fleeing
multiple times across the territory to escape ground offensives. During the war,
thousands within Israel and in southern Lebanon have also been displaced. The
assault has created a massive humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The entire territory
is at high risk of famine and over 495,000 people — more than a fifth of the
population — are expected to experience the most severe level of hunger in the
next months, according to the latest report by the leading authority on
measuring hunger. Sanitation systems have been destroyed, leaving pools of
sewage and towers of garbage in tent camps packed with displaced families. The
offensive likely either damaged or destroyed 59% of all structures in Gaza by
July 3, including 70% of buildings in north Gaza, according to an analysis of
satellite data by Corey Scher and Jamon Van Den Hoek, experts in mapping damage
during war. The conflict has sparked fears of a wider regional war, with
Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the Israeli military trading fire almost daily over
their countries’ border. More than 500 people have been killed on the Lebanese
side, including some 350 Hezbollah members and 50 fighters from other armed
groups, with the rest civilians. In Israel, 22 soldiers and 24 civilians have
been killed.
Mediators to Hold New Gaza Cease-Fire Talks, Hoping to Head Off an Even Wider
War
Asharq Al-Awsat/August 15/2024
International mediators were set to hold a new round of talks Thursday aimed at
halting the Israel-Hamas war and securing the release of scores of hostages,
with a potential deal seen as the best hope of heading off an even larger
regional conflict. The United States, Qatar and Egypt were to meet with an
Israeli delegation in Qatar as the Palestinian death toll from the 10-month-old
war nears 40,000. Hamas has not said whether it will participate, accusing
Israel of adding new demands to an evolving proposal that had US and
international support, The Associated Press said. A cease-fire in Gaza would
likely calm tensions across the region and may persuade Iran and Lebanon's
Hezbollah to refrain from retaliatory strikes on Israel after the killing of a
top Hezbollah commander in an Israeli airstrike and of Hamas' top political
leader in an explosion in Iran's capital. The mediators have spent months trying
to hammer out a three-phase plan in which Hamas would release scores of hostages
captured in the Oct. 7 attack that triggered the war in exchange for a lasting
cease-fire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the release of
Palestinians imprisoned by Israel. Both sides have agreed in principle to the
plan, which President Joe Biden announced on May 31. But Hamas has proposed
“amendments” and Israel has suggested “clarifications,” leading each side to
accuse the other of making new demands it cannot accept.Hamas has rejected
Israel's latest demands, which include a lasting military presence along the
border with Egypt and a line bisecting Gaza where it would search Palestinians
returning to their homes to root out militants. Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan
told The Associated Press the group is only interested in discussing the
implementation of Biden's vision and not in further negotiations over its
content. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denies Israel has made new demands,
but he has also repeatedly raised questions over whether the cease-fire would
last, saying Israel remains committed to “total victory” against Hamas and the
release of all the hostages.
The two sides are also divided over the details of the hostage-prisoner
exchange, including who among the Palestinian prisoners would be eligible for
release and whether they would be sent into exile. Hamas is demanding the
release of high-profile militants convicted of orchestrating attacks that killed
Israelis. The war began when Hamas-led militants stormed across the heavily
guarded border on Oct. 7 in an attack that shocked Israel's vaunted security and
intelligence services. The fighters rampaged through farming communities and
army bases, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians. They abducted another
250 people. Over 100 were released during a weeklong cease-fire in November, and
around 110 are believed to still be inside Gaza, though Israeli authorities
believe around a third of them died on Oct. 7 or in captivity. Seven were
rescued in military operations. Israel's retaliatory offensive has killed nearly
40,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza's Health Ministry, which does not say how
many were militants. The offensive has left a swath of destruction across the
territory and driven the vast majority of Gaza's 2.3 million people from their
homes, often multiple times. Successive evacuation orders and military
operations have driven hundreds of thousands of people into a so-called
humanitarian zone along the coast where they live in crowded tent camps with few
services. Aid groups have struggled to deliver food and supplies, prompting
warnings of famine.
Hamas has suffered major losses, but its fighters have repeatedly managed to
regroup, even in heavily destroyed areas where Israeli forces had previously
operated. Its top leader and one of the architects of the Oct. 7 attack, Yahya
Sinwar, is still believed to be alive and hiding inside Gaza, likely sheltering
in Hamas' vast tunnel network. Hezbollah has meanwhile traded fire with Israel
along the border in what the Lebanese militant group says is a support front for
its ally, Hamas. Other Iran-backed groups across the region have attacked
Israeli, American and international targets, drawing retaliation. Iran and
Israel traded fire directly for the first time in April, after Iran retaliated
for an apparent Israeli strike on its embassy compound in Syria that killed two
Iranian generals. Many fear a repeat after the killing of Hamas leader Ismail
Haniyeh, who was visiting Iran for the inauguration of its new president. The
explosion was widely blamed on Israel. Israel has not said whether it was
involved. Hezbollah has meanwhile vowed to avenge the killing of its commander,
Fuad Shukr, raising fears of an even more devastating sequel to the 2006 war
between Israel and the militant group. Still, Iran and Hezbollah say they do not
want a full-blown war, and a cease-fire in Gaza could provide an off-ramp after
days of escalating threats and a massive military build-up across the region.
With Gaza's death toll over 40,000, here's
the conflict by numbers
Julia Frankel/JERUSALEM (AP)/August 15, 2024
The death toll in Gaza has surpassed 40,000, health officials in the territory
say, underscoring the magnitude of Israel's offensive in the tiny coastal
enclave.
As the Israel-Hamas war enters its 11th month, it is firmly entrenched as one of
the most destructive conflicts in recent memory.
Here's a quick breakdown of the conflict, by the numbers.
Figures are sourced from the most recent updates from the Israeli military and
prime minister’s office, the Health Ministry in Hamas-run Gaza, the U.N.’s
Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, and Associated Press
reporting.
Total deaths
Palestinians killed in Gaza: at least 40,005
People killed in Israel: about 1,200
Palestinians killed in the West Bank: 623
People killed in Lebanon: around 530
Civilians
Civilians killed in Gaza: Gaza’s health ministry doesn’t distinguish between
civilians and combatants in its count, but says at least 5,956 women and at
least 10,627 children have been killed.
Civilians and foreigners killed in Israel: 860
Children killed in Israel: 53
Civilians killed since Oct. 7 in Israel along its northern border: 24
Civilians killed in Lebanon: 97
Aid workers killed in Gaza: 284
Health workers killed in Gaza: over 500
Journalists and media workers killed: At least 113
Soldiers/Militants
Militants killed by Israel in Gaza: more than 17,000, according to the Israeli
military
Israeli soldiers killed in the Gaza ground offensive: 329
Israeli soldiers killed on Oct. 7: 314
Israeli soldiers killed along Israel’s northern front since Oct. 7: 22
Militants killed in Lebanon: 377 from Hezbollah and 54 from allied groups
Destruction/Humanitarian situation in Gaza
Percentage of buildings likely damaged/destroyed: 59.3%
Percentage of homes likely damaged: more than 60%
Percentage of school buildings damaged: 85%
Hospitals that are partially functioning: 16 of 36
Palestinian civilians facing “catastrophic” food insecurity, according to the
U.N.: 495,000
Percentage of students out of school: 100%
Percentage of road network damaged: 65%
Cemeteries damaged: At least 21
Injuries
Palestinians injured in Gaza since Oct. 7: 92,401
Palestinians injured in the West Bank since Oct. 7: more than 5,400
Israeli soldiers injured since Oct. 7: 2,206
Israeli civilians injured on Oct. 7: around 4,800
Displacement
Palestinians currently displaced in Gaza: 1.9 million (86% of the prewar
population)
Israelis internally displaced from border communities: 62,224 (under 1% of the
population)
Hostages/Prisoners
Hostages taken by Hamas-led militants on Oct. 7: 251
Hostages retrieved, released, or rescued: 140
Hostages who are alive or haven’t been confirmed dead: 74, including two who
were taken before Oct. 7
Hostages confirmed to have died in Hamas captivity: 41, including two taken
before Oct. 7
Palestinian prisoners freed during weeklong pause in fighting: 240
Julia Frankel, The Associated Press
Hamas says guard who killed Israeli hostage acted 'in
revenge' against group's instructions
Reuters/ August 15, 2024
A Hamas guard who killed an Israeli hostage acted "in revenge" and against
instructions after he heard news that his two children had been killed in an
Israeli strike, a spokesperson for the group's armed wing said on Thursday. "The
(Hamas) soldier assigned as a guard acted in a retaliatory manner, against
instructions, after he received information that his two children were martyred
in one of the massacres conducted by the enemy," Abu Ubaida said on Telegram.
"The incident doesn't represent our ethics and the instructions of our religion
in dealing with captives. We will reinforce the instructions," he added. In a
later message on its official Telegram channel, the Al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas'
armed wing, posted: "Your brutality is an imminent danger to your prisoners." On
Monday, when Hamas first released information about the incident, the Israeli
military said it could not corroborate or refute Hamas' account. But on
Thursday, the military said that the man whose body is shown in the photo
released by Hamas was a hostage who had been murdered and whose body had already
been recovered by the Israeli military in November. Abu Ubaida didn't say when
the incident happened. The timing of Hamas' revelation could be an attempt to
increase pressure on Israel ahead of ceasefire talks in Doha. Envoys from the
United States, Israel, Qatar, and Egypt were meeting in Doha on Thursday in an
effort to reach a ceasefire deal that could see the release of Israeli and
foreign hostages held in Gaza in return for the freedom of many Palestinians
jailed by Israel.
Report: Trump, Netanyahu Speak about Gaza Hostage-Ceasefire Deal
Asharq Al-Awsat/August 15/2024
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump spoke on the phone with Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday and discussed the Gaza ceasefire
and hostage release deal, Axios reported, citing two US sources. One source told
Axios Trump's call was intended to encourage Netanyahu to take the deal, but
stressed he did not know if this is indeed what the former president told
Netanyahu. The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for
comment. Late last month, Netanyahu visited the US and met President Joe Biden,
Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and
Republican former President Trump. Egypt, the United States and Qatar have
scheduled a new round of Gaza ceasefire negotiations for Thursday. Biden laid
out a three-phase ceasefire proposal in an address on May 31. Washington and
regional mediators have since tried arranging the Gaza ceasefire-for-hostages
deal but have run into repeated obstacles. Hamas said on Wednesday it would not
take part in a new round of Gaza ceasefire talks slated for Thursday in Qatar,
but an official briefed on the talks said mediators expected to consult with the
Palestinian group afterwards. Washington, Israel's most important ally, has said
that a ceasefire in Gaza will reduce the rising threat of a wider war in the
Middle East. There has been an increased risk of a broader war after the recent
killings of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran and Hezbollah military commander
Fuad Shukr in Beirut. Both drew threats of retaliation against Israel. The
latest bloodshed in the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict was triggered
on Oct. 7 when Hamas attacked Israel, killing 1,200 and taking about 250
hostages, according to Israeli tallies. Israel's subsequent assault on the Hamas-governed
enclave has since killed nearly 40,000 Palestinians, according to the local
health ministry, while also displacing nearly the entire population of 2.3
million, causing a hunger crisis and leading to genocide allegations at the
World Court that Israel denies.
Canada demands investigation into water well destroyed
by Israeli troops in Gaza
Dylan Robertson/The Canadian Press/ August 15, 2024
The Canadian government is still calling for an investigation into Israel's
destruction nearly a month ago of a large water facility in an area of the Gaza
Strip where Ottawa is known for supporting Palestinians. The office of the
International Development Minister Ahmed Hussen says the incident adds to a
"catastrophic" humanitarian situation. "Canada has contacted the Israeli
government for more information on this incident and we call for an
investigation," said spokeswoman Olivia Batten. The Israeli military says it's
looking into what happened last month when its soldiers were filmed planting
explosives and destroying a water-processing facility in the city of Rafah,
where hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are sheltering. The facility is in
the Tel al-Sultan district, in a neighbourhood the Palestinian delegation in
Ottawa says is popularly known as Canada because of the country's support for
various projects in that area over decades. The facility is often called the
Canada Well, though in recent years it has operated on funding from the United
Nations and Japan. Global Affairs Canada says it has not been able to confirm
claims that the well was created with federal funding. "The well is situated in
Tel al-Sultan, where Canada has played an important role in improving the
quality of life for the community," Batten wrote. The Palestinian delegation
says the facility provided clean water for roughly 100,000 people at a time when
polio is spreading in Gaza. The International Development Research Centre, a
Crown corporation with decades of work abroad, did not immediately find proof of
having funded such a project. Batten reiterated Canada's call for a ceasefire in
the Israel-Hamas war that would allow more aid to reach Palestinians. "This
incident further strains the already dire water infrastructure and exacerbates
the hardships civilians face in accessing clean water," she wrote. "The looming
risk of widespread famine and disease continues to grow and is exacerbated by
the destruction of medical, humanitarian, and civilian infrastructure, such as
this well.”The Israeli military did not explain how destroying a water facility
helps its goal of routing Hamas from the Gaza Strip. "IDF (Israeli) forces have
been operating for several weeks in the Tel al-Sultan area, to destroy terrorist
infrastructures and eliminate terrorists, while mitigating damage to civilian
infrastructures," a spokesperson wrote in response to questions. "The
circumstances of the case in question are under review."The Canadian Press has
reached out the Israeli embassy in Ottawa for comment. The United Nations says
nowhere in the Gaza Strip is safe ever since Israel started bombarding the
Palestinian territory last fall after the Oct. 7 attack in Israel by Hamas,
which Canada classifies as a terrorist organization. Last month, a municipal
official in Khan Younis told Reuters that Israeli troops had destroyed 30 water
wells in that city and Rafah during the last two weeks of July.
Turkey, Iraq sign accord on military, security,
counter-terrorism cooperation
Reuters/ August 15, 2024
Turkey and Iraq have signed a memorandum of understanding on military, security
and counter-terrorism cooperation, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on
Thursday, after two days of high-level security talks in Ankara. The
neighbouring countries have in recent years been at loggerheads over Ankara's
cross-border military operations against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK)
militants based in northern Iraq's mountainous region. Iraq has said the
operations violate its sovereignty, but Ankara says they are needed to protect
itself. Ties have improved since last year, when they agreed to hold high-level
talks on security matters, and after a visit in April by Turkish President
Tayyip Erdogan to Baghdad, where he said relations had entered a new phase.
Ankara and Baghdad held a fourth round of meetings this week as part of the
dialogue mechanism. In March, Iraq labelled the PKK a "banned organisation in
Iraq" - a move welcomed by Turkey. Fidan, speaking alongside his Iraqi
counterpart Fuad Hussein following their talks in Ankara, said the accord signed
by the defence ministers of either side carried "historic importance", while
Hussein said it was "the first in the history of Iraq and Turkey" in this field.
"Through the joint coordination and training centres planned in this agreement,
we believe we can take our cooperation to the next level," Fidan said. "We want
to advance the understanding we are developing with Iraq on counter-terrorism
through concrete steps on the ground," he added. A Turkish diplomatic source
said that, with the agreement, a Joint Security Coordination Centre would be
established in Baghdad along with a Joint Training and Cooperation Centre in
Bashiqa. Hussein, speaking about the Bashiqa training camp, said "the onus will
lie on the Iraqi armed forces", without elaborating. On Monday, Turkish Defence
Minister Yasar Guler told Reuters that recent steps taken by Turkey and Iraq on
counter-terrorism marked a turning point in ties, adding Ankara wanted Baghdad
to go a step further and label the PKK a terrorist organisation as soon as
possible. The PKK, which has been waging an insurgency against the Turkish state
since 1984, is designated a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the United States
and the European Union. More than 40,000 people have been killed in the
conflict.
Iranian military adviser dies following injuries in
Syria
Reuters/August 15, 2024
A military adviser from Iran's Revolutionary Guard's Aerospace Force has died
following injuries sustained in Syria over recent weeks, the semi-official Fars
news agency reported on Thursday. "Colonel Ahmadreza Afshari was martyred due to
injuries sustained from aerial bombardment from the coalition violating Syria,"
top Revolutionary Guard Commander Hossein Salami said.Iranian media did not give
a precise date for the strike but said Afshari sustained his injuries between
late July and early August. The U.S. and Israel have both carried out strikes in
Syria against Iran-aligned factions, where Tehran's influence has grown since it
began supporting President Bashar al-Assad in a civil war that started in 2011.
In April, Iran launched explosive drones and fired missiles in its first direct
attack on Israeli territory, a retaliatory strike for what it called an Israeli
strike on its Damascus diplomatic compound on April 1 that killed seven officers
of the Revolutionary Guard.
Iran police shot a woman while trying to seize her car
over hijab law violation, activists say
Jon Gambrell/DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) / August 15, 2024
On a darkened road beside the Caspian Sea, Iranian police officers opened fire
last month on a 31-year-old woman who had tried to speed away likely knowing
they wanted to seize her vehicle. Police had been ordered to impound her car,
activists say, because of an earlier violation of Iran's headscarf law for
showing her hair in public while driving. Now unable to walk and confined to a
bed at a police hospital, Arezou Badri — a mother of two — is the latest
casualty of Iran's renewed crackdown over headscarves, or hijabs. Her shooting
occurred nearly two years after 22-year-old Mahsa Amini died while in police
custody over an alleged headscarf violation, sparking nationwide protests over
women's rights and against the country's theocracy. As the Sept. 16 anniversary
of Amini's death approaches, Iran's new reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian
has promised to ease enforcement of the headscarf law. But the murky details of
Badri's shooting and a recent video of a girl being manhandled in the streets of
Tehran show the dangers still lurking for those willing to disobey it. “They
have elevated it to the most serious crime, where the police is allowed
basically to shoot to kill,” said Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of the New
York-based Center for Human Rights in Iran. “That's really a war on women.”
Badri's shooting occurred around 11 p.m. on July 22 along a coastal road in
Iran's northern Mazandaran province as she drove home from a friend's house with
her sister, activists say. A brief account published by Iran's state-run IRNA
news agency quoted police Col. Ahmad Amini as saying patrol officers had ordered
a vehicle with tinted windows to stop, but that it didn't. It made no mention of
the hijab violation or impound notice. Officers appear to have first fired at
Badri's car's tires, according to the group Human Rights Activists in Iran,
which spoke to people with knowledge of the shooting. As Badri continued
driving, officers fired into the vehicle, the group said; the gunfire pierced
her lung and damaged her spine. Under Iranian law, police must fire a warning
shot, then aim to wound below the waist before taking a potentially fatal shot
at a suspect’s head or chest. If the suspect is driving, officers typically aim
first for the tires. Why police initially stopped Badri's car remains unclear,
though activists blame it on the impound alert over the hijab violation. It's
also unknown whether any police vehicle at the scene had a camera that recorded
the shooting or if any officer there wore a body camera. There are no public
statistics of fatal police shootings in Iran. Police firearms training and
tactics vary widely, as some officers face more paramilitary duties in areas
like Iran's restive Sistan and Baluchestan provinces. Iran's Interior Ministry,
which oversees the country's police, did not respond to questions about the
shooting from The Associated Press. Authorities are holding Badri at a police
hospital in Tehran under tight security, restricting her family's visits and
stopping them from taking photographs of her, activists say. Despite that, an
image of Badri was published by the BBC this week, highlighting her case. “She
has no sensation from the waist down and doctors have said that it will be clear
in the coming months whether she is completely paralyzed," said one activist in
Iran, who requested anonymity for fear of reprisal. The hijab became a focal
point of demonstrations after the death of Amini in 2022. She died after being
arrested for not wearing her headscarf to the liking of police. A United Nations
panel has found that Amini died as a result of “physical violence” used against
her by the state. Amini's death sparked months of protests and a security
crackdown that killed more than 500 people and led to the detention of more than
22,000. After the mass demonstrations, police dialed down enforcement of hijab
laws, but it ramped up again in April under what authorities called the Noor —
or “Light” — Plan. The hijab crackdown remains widely discussed in Iran, even as
police and state media rarely report on it. Many women continue to wear their
hijabs loosely or leave them draped around their shoulders while walking in
Tehran. Women driving without wearing hijabs are believed to have been tracked
via surveillance camera technology provided by Chinese firms, matching their
faces against a government-maintained photo database, Ghaemi said. If they are
stopped, that can lead to physical altercations between women and the police.
Surveillance footage published last week by the Iranian reformist news website
Ensaf showed a 14-year-old girl manhandled by the morality police in Tehran. Her
mother described her daughter's head as being rammed into an electrical box, a
female officer pulling her hair and another putting their foot on her neck.
Police described the officers' behavior as unprofessional, but also accused the
girl of using bad language. “I saw my daughter with a wounded face, swollen
lips, a bruised neck, torn clothes and she couldn’t even speak," her mother,
Maryam Abbasi, told the website. "Her eyes were so swollen from crying that they
wouldn’t open.”
Houthi militant secures the vicinity of United Nations offices
where people
WASHINGTON (Reuters)/August 15, 2024
The United States on Thursday issued more sanctions targeting Houthi and
Hezbollah trade networks, the U.S. Treasury Department said, as Washington
increases pressure on Tehran and the Iranian-backed groups. The U.S. Treasury
Department in a statement said it targeted companies, individuals and vessels
accused of being involved in the shipment of Iranian commodities, including oil
and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to Yemen and the United Arab Emirates on
behalf of a Houthi financial official's network. It said the revenue from Sa’id
al-Jamal's network helps finance the Houthis' targeting of shipping in the Red
Sea and civilian infrastructure. Attacks on vessels in the Red Sea by
Iran-aligned Houthi militants have disrupted a shipping route vital to east-west
trade, with prolonged rerouting of shipments pushing freight rates higher and
causing congestion in Asian and European ports. Also targeted on Thursday were
Hezbollah shipments of LPG, including through the designation of a Hong
Kong-based ship manager and operator as well as several tankers. The Treasury
said the Hezbollah-controlled Talaqi Group used two of the tankers to ship LPG
worth tens of millions of dollars from Iran to China. “Today’s action
underscores our continued commitment to disrupting Iran’s primary source of
funding to its regional terrorist proxies like Lebanese Hizballah and the
Houthis,” said Treasury's Acting Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial
Intelligence, Bradley Smith. “Our message is clear: those who seek to finance
these groups’ destabilizing activities will be held to account.”Thursday's
action freezes any U.S. assets of those targeted and generally bars Americans
from dealing with them. Financial institutions and others that engage in certain
transactions with them also risk being hit with sanctions.
Ukraine's top general disobeyed Zelenskyy and blew up
the Nord Stream pipeline without permission, report says
Mia Jankowicz/Business Insider/August 15, 2024
Ukraine was behind the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline, The Wall Street
Journal reported. The September 2022 explosion disrupted Russia's natural gas
exports, hitting global energy markets. The WSJ said Volodymyr Zelenskyy tried
to halt the plan, but that his top general did it anyway. President Volodymyr
Zelenskyy attempted to put the brakes on an audacious Ukrainian plot to blow up
the Nord Stream pipeline, but his general pushed ahead anyway, according to a
new report. That explosion in the Baltic Sea back in September 2022 resulted in
the destruction of a major Russian export route for natural gas, sending
shockwaves through energy markets. Who exactly blew up the pipeline was an
enduring mystery. Danish and Swedish investigations closed inconclusively in
February this year, and a couple of months later the UN admitted it had "no
additional details" on who was behind the attack. But The Wall Street Journal
published the fullest story yet on Wednesday purporting to finally describe what
happened. It said a crew of six Ukrainian-backed divers chartered a 50-foot
pleasure boat from Germany, sailed it to the Baltic Sea, and planted explosive
charges on the pipeline. The Journal cited four Ukrainian defense officials who
either participated in the plot or were familiar with it, as well as linking
many details to a German police investigation. It didn't say why the officials
were not named. Business Insider has not independently verified the report. The
idea to blow up the pipeline was the brainchild of a boozy night back a few
months prior, when a group of Ukrainian businessmen and senior military officers
were toasting their country's recent successes, the Journal reported. The
project was financed by the businessmen, on a shoestring budget of around
$300,000, and received backing by then-army chief Valeriy Zaluzhniy, the report
said. The project initially got the go-ahead from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
— but in June, the CIA received a tip-off about it, and sought to stop to it,
the report said. Zelenskyy called a halt, the report said — only for Zaluzhniy
to press ahead with a modified version of the plan anyway. Business Insider did
not receive responses to its requests for comment sent to Defense Intelligence
of Ukraine or Zelenskyy's office.
The Ukrainian Embassy in London, where Zaluzhniy is now Ukraine's ambassador to
the UK, was not contactable for comment by email. Ukraine has repeatedly denied
being behind the attack. In a message to the Journal, Zaluzhniy denied any
knowledge and said any accusation would be a "mere provocation." He also said
that Ukraine's armed forces would not have had authorization for overseas
missions. Senior Ukrainian special operations officer Roman Chervinsky led the
attack, The Journal reported. Chervinsky declined to comment to the paper.
Ukraine has a solid rationale for wanting to disrupt the pipeline. A joint
project between Russia and Germany, the pipeline was seen by Ukraine and the US
as something that would increase European dependence on Russia for energy —
giving Russia immense leverage and vital income. After Nord Stream's
destruction, Russia's only other main export route for natural gas is via
Ukraine itself. Following the explosions almost two years ago, there was a
flurry of finger-pointing. Western officials quickly suggested Russia could be
behind the attack, which the Kremlin denied. Meanwhile, Tucker Carlson and the
investigative journalist Seymour Hersh each made thinly-sourced claims that
President Joe Biden masterminded the attack. Investigative reports pointing to
Ukrainian responsibility have been emerging for several months, with many
details matching the Journal report. A joint investigation between The
Washington Post and Der Spiegel also connected Chervinsky, and Ukraine, to the
attack. New York Times reporting last year also said a Ukrainian group was
behind the attack. The Journal's latest report is the first to suggest Zelenskyy
had knowledge of the attack. The matter is likely to cause diplomatic friction
between Ukraine and Germany, which was a joint stakeholder with Russia in the
pipeline.
The cost to Germany of seeking alternative energy sources is reckoned to be $1
million per day. Germany is also the second-biggest single country supporting
Ukraine's war effort. One senior German official familiar with the country's
police investigation into the matter told The Journal: "Our critical
infrastructure was blown up by a country that we support with massive weapons
shipments and billions in cash."
Türkiye, Iraq Sign Accord on Military, Security,
Counter-Terrorism Cooperation
Asharq Al-Awsat/August 15/2024
Türkiye and Iraq have signed a memorandum of understanding on military, security
and counter-terrorism cooperation, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on
Thursday, after two days of high-level security talks in Ankara. The neighboring
countries have in recent years been at loggerheads over Ankara's cross-border
military operations against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)
militants based in northern Iraq's mountainous region. Iraq has said the
operations violate its sovereignty, but Ankara says they are needed to protect
itself. Ties have improved since last year, when they agreed to hold high-level
talks on security matters, and after a visit in April by Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan to Baghdad, where he said relations had entered a new phase.
Ankara and Baghdad held a fourth round of meetings this week as part of the
dialogue mechanism. In March, Iraq labelled the PKK a "banned organization in
Iraq" - a move welcomed by Türkiye. Fidan, speaking alongside his Iraqi
counterpart Fuad Hussein following their talks in Ankara, said the accord signed
by the defense ministers of either side carried "historic importance", while
Hussein said it was "the first in the history of Iraq and Türkiye" in this
field. "Through the joint coordination and training centers planned in this
agreement, we believe we can take our cooperation to the next level," Fidan
said. "We want to advance the understanding we are developing with Iraq on
counter-terrorism through concrete steps on the ground," he added. A Turkish
diplomatic source said that, with the agreement, a Joint Security Coordination
Centre would be established in Baghdad along with a Joint Training and
Cooperation Centre in Bashiqa. Hussein, speaking about the Bashiqa training
camp, said "the onus will lie on the Iraqi armed forces", without elaborating.
On Monday, Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler told Reuters that recent steps
taken by Türkiye and Iraq on counter-terrorism marked a turning point in ties,
adding Ankara wanted Baghdad to go a step further and label the PKK a terrorist
organization as soon as possible. The PKK, which has been waging an insurgency
against the Turkish state since 1984, is designated a terrorist organization by
Türkiye, the United States and the European Union. More than 40,000 people have
been killed in the conflict.
Iraq Says Announcement on Date for End to US-Led Coalition Mission Postponed
Asharq Al-Awsat/August 15/2024
Iraq's foreign ministry said on Thursday that an announcement on an end date for
the US-led coalition's mission has been postponed due to the "latest
developments." It did not identify the developments. The US-Iraq Higher Military
Commission, comprising officials from both countries, discussed details of
withdrawing advisers from military sites, the foreign ministry said in a
statement said. It said the only remaining issues before reaching a deal on
ending the coalition's presence in Iraq were agreement on an announcement date,
logical aspects and other details. A rare ally of both the US and Iran, Iraq
hosts 2,500 US troops and has Iran-backed militias linked to its security
forces. It has witnessed escalating tit-for-tat attacks since the Israel-Hamas
war in Gaza erupted in October. On Aug. 5, at least five US personnel were
injured in an attack against a military base in Iraq. Iraq wants troops from the
US-led military coalition to begin withdrawing in September and to formally end
the coalition's work by September 2025, Iraqi sources have said, with some US
forces likely to remain in a newly negotiated advisory capacity.
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources
on August 15-16/2024
Iran is weaker than we think. It’s time to take advantage.
Saeed Ghasseminejad and Richard Goldberg/The Hill/August 15/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/08/133311/
The Islamic Republic of Iran is weak and vulnerable, far more than the regime
would have us believe. That’s the biggest takeaway from last week’s
suspected Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran — and
it delivers important messages to the ayatollah, his terror proxies, the Iranian
people and Washington policymakers. Haniyeh’s killing while under maximum
protection by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps tells Ali Khamenei, the
supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, that Israel has deeply infiltrated the
ayatollah’s intelligence and security establishment. Furthermore, unlike in
previous years, Israel is now prepared to use its power to strike the Islamic
Republic at the highest levels within Iran. In recent years, Israel has
conducted several covert operations in Iran, the most significant being the 2020
elimination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the godfather of the Islamic Republic’s
nuclear weapons program. But the elimination of Haniyeh, both in terms of
his political position and the operation’s complexity, which required planning
in a very short time, indicates the extraordinary level of Israel’s infiltration
inside the regime and its increased resolve to target its enemies — even if such
strikes come with the risk of strong retaliation. Israel’s capability and will
to target Iran’s highest officials, along with its ability to target military
and economic infrastructure through military, cyber and other covert means, lets
the Islamic Republic know that its actions could increasingly lead to the
killing of high-ranking officials inside Iran. It also shows that there is a
strong Israeli advantage in any future wide-scale war.
Haniyeh’s assassination sent an even louder message, however, to the leaders of
Tehran’s terror proxies — not only Hamas commander Yahya Sinwar in Gaza but
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and other Iran-directed groups. Israel has the
ability to strike anyone, anywhere at any time — whether it’s Hezbollah’s chief
of staff in southern Beirut or Hamas’s commander-in-chief in Tehran.
Entanglement with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp ultimately proves fatal,
whether a terrorist on the regime’s dime operates in Iraq, Yemen, Syria,
Lebanon, the West Bank, Gaza — or even Iran.
If Israel stays on offense like this, it can effectively disrupt the operational
coordination between the head and tentacles of the terror octopus.
But adversaries are not the only stakeholders taking note of Israel’s bold
actions. The Iranian people — those who oppose the Islamic Republic — are also
emboldened by a regime that increasingly appears ineffective and incompetent.
While the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp’s Basij forces can succeed in
murdering Iranians in the street, the most elite levels of the guard’s security
apparatus are no match for covert actions. Iranians, including Khamenei himself,
are left to wonder just how many high-level officials in Tehran are willing to
sell out an ideologically bankrupt regime for the right price.
The people of Iran and the state of Israel share a common interest in seeing the
Islamic Republic collapse, and each side has capabilities and potential that can
support the other in this effort. Israel may find more partners on the streets
of Iran to further weaken the regime from within and ultimately bring it down.
The lesson learned that the ayatollah has no clothes — that the Islamic Republic
is not 10 feet tall and bulletproof — should be a wake-up call in Washington
too. Israel’s determination to defend itself and willingness to strike blows in
the heart of Iran stands in sharp contrast to the United States — despite a
larger economy and military — which runs away from confrontation with Tehran due
to an irrational fear of escalation.
Tehran’s proxies in the region have consistently targeted American troops and
interests. The regime is racing forward with its nuclear program, too. Not only
has Washington failed to hold Tehran accountable, but its non-stop calls for
de-escalation in the face of escalation provoke the regime to act more
aggressively and with greater impunity. Between Israel’s demonstrated ability to
send a missile through Iranian air defense in April and its more recent capacity
to take out a high-level asset in Tehran under the regime’s protection,
Washington defense and intelligence planners should understand the Islamic
Republic is far more fragile than its information operations would suggest. The
Haniyeh assassination is a window for the U.S. to seize. This is not a time for
restraint or de-escalation. This is a moment to maximize pressure on Khamenei,
increase support for the Iranian people and improve the odds that the Islamic
Republic crumbles into the ash heap of history.
**Saeed Ghasseminejad and Richard Goldberg are senior advisors at the Foundation
for Defense of Democracies.
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4825990-iran-vulnerability-hamas-assassination/
Iran is Creeping into the International Arms Market
Behnam Ben Taleblu/The National Interest/August 14/2024
Almost overnight, Iran has positioned itself as a weapons exporter to rogue
regimes around the world.
As the Biden administration desperately tries to prevent or limit a missile and
drone attack by Iran and its proxies against Israel, it would be wise to
remember that the Middle East is already awash in Iranian projectiles. Recently,
an Iranian artillery rocket fired by Lebanese Hezbollah killed twelve children
in northern Israel, leading to an escalation spiral where the Israelis killed
Hezbollah’s number two man, with the terror group now seeking revenge.
That initial strike followed a historic first long-range Unmanned Aerial Vehicle
(UAV) strike by Yemen’s Houthi rebels against Tel Aviv, killing one person. The
UAV was made in Iran and completed a 2,600 km flight path.
While forward-deployed long-range strike systems are an essential component of
Tehran’s “ring of fire” strategy against Israel, that is not the only arms
proliferation problem the administration must tackle. The Islamic Republic is
capitalizing on a more permissive international environment to build on its
track record of arms proliferation to non-state actors to become an arms
salesman to states.
One way Iran can elicit state interest is by highlighting the role its low-cost
systems, like drones, have played on the battlefield. The infamous Shahed-136
UAV—also called the Geran-2—has been instrumental in Russia’s ongoing war
against Ukraine, with Moscow firing a reported 4,600 drones in the first two
years of the conflict. The same drone also featured in Iran’s April 13 attack
against Israel.
Far beyond Ukraine and Israel, Iranian drones have been seen in at least two
other continents, demonstrating the radius of Iranian arms shaping international
conflicts. In Venezuela, reporting from 2012 reveals Tehran aiding Caracas with
local drone production. Fast forward to today, Venezuela’s armed forces utilize
the Iranian Mohajer-2, dubbed the ANSU-100, as well as the newer ANSU-200, which
closely resembles Iran’s Shahed-171. In Ethiopia, Iranian drones played a
significant role in the war in the northern Tigray region, with the Ethiopian
military deploying Mohajer-6 UAVs. Similarly, in Sudan’s civil war, Iran’s
Mohajer-6 UAVs have aided the Sudanese Armed Forces in blocking the advance of
the rival Rapid Support Force and regaining territory. Tehran may even be the
source behind Pyongyang’s sudden embrace of airpower.
It should be no surprise then that drones were included in a recently reported
$500 million arms pact between Iran and Armenia. While Yerevan and Tehran
officially denied the deal, Iran’s rejection is likely driven by local
considerations, namely, attempts to diplomatically rope-a-dope Baku.
This July, an Iranian parliamentarian touted a drastic increase in military
exports over the last three years, noting that production grew two-and-a-half
times while exports surged in the same period. The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News
highlighted that Tehran aims to take Turkey’s place in the global UAV market by
2028, striving to capture at least one-quarter of this market share, equivalent
to around $6.5 billion.
Beyond supplying drones, Tehran has also facilitated capacity building for
states interested in producing Iranian-designed UAVs. Iran inaugurated a drone
production factory in Tajikistan in 2022 for the Ababil-2 UAV. While the status
of this facility remains unclear, Russia has rushed ahead at the Alabuga Special
Economic Zone to bring the Geran-2 online.
Another way Iran may seek to generate interest in its arms is through a
ramped-up presence at defense exhibitions. In 2024, the Islamic Republic
flaunted its military systems at booths in defense expos in Malaysia, Qatar, and
Iraq and sent a delegation to participate in an expo hosted by Saudi Arabia.
Moscow and Belgrade also had booths featuring Iranian defense manufacturers at
shows the year prior.
With the exception of American and European sanctions, the Islamic Republic
today faces no international restrictions for engaging in the global arms trade.
This resulted from arms embargoes and missile testing and transfer prohibitions
that lapsed in October 2020 and October 2023, respectively, as stipulated by UN
Security Council Resolution 2231, which codified the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
While the existence of these prohibitions did not prevent Iran from attending
regional arms expos, such as in Iraq in the past, nor did it prevent missile
testing or arms transfers, it created an international predicate for
multilateral action against Tehran and broadened the coalition for sanctions
enforcement. When faced with the termination of these penalties, Iran scaled up
these activities, believing them to be cost-free.
The growing global reach of Iranian arms necessitates the restoration of an
international baseline to deter and punish prospective sales. But a new
resolution at the UNSC against Iran’s arms exports is unlikely when a permanent
member of the UNSC is benefitting from Iranian drones and may soon receive
Iranian ballistic missiles as well. Prior to a mechanism in 2231 that
reverse-engineers the UNSC veto expires in October 2025, Washington should work
with its trans-Atlantic partners to restore permanent arms transfer and missile
testing prohibitions, popularly called “snapback.”
From this baseline, Washington can move to aggressively sanction Iranian
procurement rings and illicit networks that move money and parts for the Islamic
Republic. Washington should also devote more resources to making sure Tehran is
denied the benefits, particularly if they are monetary, of its increasingly
global arms trade.
Creativity must also be embraced. This means more multilateral efforts to
interdict or intercept arms transfers where possible, as well as more raising of
the issue of Iranian arms transfers in bilateral relationships with countries
hosting arms expos featuring Iranian weapons or with those who seek to purchase
them.
Additionally, the United States and others should consider stemming the supply
side of the equation through acts of sabotage against Iranian drones or other
weapons production and storage facilities, as Israel was reported to have done
in 2022.
If pursued in isolation, none of these ideas are likely to put the Iranian arms
proliferation problem back in the box. However, taken together, they can
handicap the Islamic Republic’s efforts to rise to the status of international
arms salesman.
*Behnam Ben Taleblu is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD) in Washington, DC. Janatan Sayeh is a research analyst at FDD.
Follow him on X: @JanatanSayeh.
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/iran-creeping-international-arms-market-21231
France: Political Chaos
Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute./August 15, 2024
Rebellious France is not only a far-left party, it is also a party tinged with
anti-Semitism and counts supporters of Islamism and terrorist groups such as
Hamas in its ranks.
The left-wing coalition has clearly been gaining ground. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the
leader of Rebellious France, to emphasize that he accepts anti-Semitism and
supports Hamas and Islamism, gave a speech about his party's results while
standing on stage next to an Islamist pro-Hamas activist, newly-elected Member
of European Parliament Rima Hassan. Hassan wore a keffiyeh and displayed on her
clothes a small Palestinian flag.
An unprecedented situation in France took shape: all the candidates from other
parties were asked to withdraw from the election and support the candidate of
another party better placed to defeat the National Rally candidate, even if the
better-placed candidate belonged to a party that they totally rejected.
The French mainstream media contributed to the operation and fueled fear of
"fascism". They accepted the propaganda. Rappers, who are widely listened to in
Islamic no-go zones, released a song that calls for the murder of Jordan
Bardella, the president of the National Rally, the rape of party leader Marine
Le Pen, and the elimination of "Zionist Jews". The song was described by some
journalists as a courageous "song of resistance" and was broadcast over the
radio. One of the lines from the song goes: "From the Jordan to the Seine,
Palestine will be free" – a call not just for the destruction of Israel, but for
the submission of France to Sharia law and Islam. The "left", with 184 seats,
became the largest group in the National Assembly; Rebellious France, its most
powerful component. The party's leaders present themselves as the spearhead of
the "anti-fascist struggle"; claim that they must govern the country, and that
to remove them would be to make "concessions to fascism". They do not bother to
hide their anti-Semitism and their support for Hamas and Islam. France has
become almost ungovernable. No political party has a majority. No party can form
a government coalition without having to renounce the most essential part of its
program.
The power acquired by Rebellious France means that a government which does not
have its approval cannot claim to govern. In addition, no new parliamentary
elections can be organized for a year.
Polls have shown for months that a majority of French people would like a firm
fight against crime, a stop to illegal immigration, and an end to the
Islamization of the country. All these points were on the program of the
National Rally.
Every year, on average, 500,000 new immigrants, mainly from the Muslim world,
settle in France. Hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants reside in the
country. Few are expelled. Islamic no-go zones are growing.
On the evening of July 7, Rebellious France organized a large rally in Paris's
Place de la République. Palestinian flags were everywhere; French flags almost
nowhere. Speakers presented hateful slogans against the National Rally, Israel,
Jewish journalists, and the police. Demonstrators burned cars and trash cans,
and destroyed stores. Rebellious France is not only a far-left party, it is also
a party tinged with anti-Semitism and counts supporters of Islamism and
terrorist groups such as Hamas in its ranks. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of
Rebellious France, to emphasize that he accepts anti-Semitism and supports Hamas
and Islamism, gave a speech on June 30 (pictured) about his party's results in
the first round, while standing on stage next to an Islamist pro-Hamas activist,
newly-elected Member of European Parliament Rima Hassan. Hassan wore a keffiyeh
and displayed on her clothes a small Palestinian flag.
Paris. June 9. 8pm. The results of the European Parliament elections were made
public. in In France, the party of President Emmanuel Macron garnered 14.6% of
the vote, 8 points less than in 2019; the French population had turned away from
Macron. The Socialist Party came out with 13.8% of the vote and Rebellious
France, a far-left party, 9.89% of the vote. The moderate right party, The
Republicans, received only 7.25% of the vote and continued to slide towards
insignificance. The right wing National Rally received 31.3% of the vote, 10
points more than in 2019, an extremely high result for a long-marginalized
party. Macron's policies were clearly rejected by the French electorate. A
recent poll showed that only 31% of French people said they were satisfied with
his management of the country. He could have decided to wait. He was re-elected
in 2022 and can remain president until 2027. His party did not have an absolute
majority in the National Assembly (France's parliament) but was the leading
party, which could also remain in place until 2027.
Macron could not ignore that the result obtained by the Rebellious France party
was worrying: Rebellious France is not only a far-left party, it is also a party
tinged with anti-Semitism and counts supporters of Islamism and terrorist groups
such as Hamas in its ranks. Macron also did not ignore that the National Rally's
growing support has come from all those who rejected his management of the
country and were apparently extremely worried about what France is becoming.
Macron could see, according to polls, that if legislative elections were
organized immediately, his Together party would lose; Rebellious France would
gain even more political weight, and the National Rally could win an absolute
majority.
He was also aware that the Olympic Games were about take place in Paris, and
that since 2017, when he came to power, demonstrations and riots in France have
been frequent; any decision on his part could create massive disorder at an
extremely bad time. He nevertheless decided to dissolve the National Assembly
and hold legislative elections on very short notice.
He did not warn anyone. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, whom he appointed just six
months earlier, learned of the decision while speaking on television. He was not
shy about showing his anger. Other members of the government learned of the
decision at the same time as Attal.
On June 30, the first round of elections led to the expected results. Together
(Macron's party) received a slightly larger share of votes than in the European
Parliament elections, but a far smaller than in France's 2022 parliamentary
elections, and was heading towards a scathing defeat. Rebellious France managed
quickly to form a left-wing coalition (the New Popular Front), which it
dominated and on which it imposed an extremely radical program. It promised
large tax increases, disarming the police and immediate regularization of all
illegal immigrants in the country.
The left-wing coalition has clearly been gaining ground. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the
leader of Rebellious France, to emphasize that he accepts anti-Semitism and
supports Hamas and Islamism, gave a speech on June 30 about his party's results
in the first round, while standing on stage next to an Islamist pro-Hamas
activist, newly-elected Member of European Parliament Rima Hassan. Hassan wore a
keffiyeh and displayed on her clothes a small Palestinian flag.
The National Rally won an even better result than it had in the European
elections: a third of voters gave it their support. The National Rally was well
ahead in all electoral districts in the country, except in big cities. It
clearly looked able to win a majority in the second round.
Macron then decided to wage total war against the National Rally. He described
it in extreme terms and used vocabulary as radical as that used by the leaders
of Rebellious France. He could see that the National Rally has a conservative
program that is perfectly respectful of institutions, but nevertheless falsely
described it as a party belonging to a "fascist" extreme right and a "threat to
democracy". He warned that if the National Rally came to power, the survival of
the French republic would be at stake, and added that all parties, including
Rebellious France, must unite against the National Rally to defeat it.
An unprecedented situation in France took shape: all the candidates from other
parties were asked to withdraw from the election and support the candidate of
another party better placed to defeat the National Rally candidate, even if the
better-placed candidate belonged to a party that they totally rejected. Some
candidates from Together asked people to vote for Rebellious France candidates,
and some Rebellious France candidates asked people to vote for Together
candidates. The Republicans also participated in the mayhem. Former President
François Hollande, running for a seat in the National Assembly, supported
Rebellious France.
The French mainstream media contributed to the operation and fueled fear of
"fascism". They accepted the propaganda. Rappers, who are widely listened to in
Islamic no-go zones, released a song that calls for the murder of Jordan
Bardella, the president of the National Rally, the rape of party leader Marine
Le Pen, and the elimination of "Zionist Jews". The song was described by some
journalists as a courageous "song of resistance" and was broadcast over the
radio. One of the lines from the song goes: "From the Jordan to the Seine,
Palestine will be free" – a call not just for the destruction of Israel, but for
the submission of France to Sharia law and Islam. On the evening of the second,
run-off, round, which was held July 7, it became clear that scaring the public
had worked. The National Rally won only 142 seats out of 577. Macron's party,
Together, lost a third of its seats and sank from 245 to 166 seats. Prime
Minister Gabriel Attal's anger is apparently still intact. The other members of
the government are also less than euphoric. They knew that Attal could resign
soon (he resigned on July 16 and remains in caretaker role), and that it will be
the end of the government of which they are part. Any support that Macron still
had on June 9 has almost completely evaporated. Macron is alone, discredited.
The "left", with 184 seats, became the largest group in the National Assembly;
Rebellious France, its most powerful component. The party's leaders present
themselves as the spearhead of the "anti-fascist struggle"; claim that they must
govern the country, and that to remove them would be to make "concessions to
fascism". They do not bother to hide their anti-Semitism and their support for
Hamas and Islam. One of them, Raphael Arnault, a leader of the Antifa movement
in France, is on the list established by the French police of people dangerous
for the security of the country. This is the first time that a leader of a
movement that is officially dangerous for the security of the country has become
a member of the National Assembly.
France has become almost ungovernable. No political party has a majority. No
party can form a government coalition without having to renounce the most
essential part of its program.
The power acquired by Rebellious France means that a government which does not
have its approval cannot claim to govern. In addition, no new parliamentary
elections can be organized for a year. France seems to be condemned to political
instability and disorder. National Rally leaders emphasize that their party
received the largest number of votes and that Macron's maneuverings stole the
election from them.
Polls have shown for months that a majority of French people would like a firm
fight against crime, a stop to illegal immigration, and an end to the
Islamization of the country. All these points were on the program of the
National Rally.
By having strengthened Rebellious France, Macron created a situation where there
will undoubtedly be less fight against crime, more illegal immigration, an
increase of Islamization.
Economic data shows that France is currently in a recession. The country's debt
is growing. The debt has increased by 30% in seven years. Year after year, the
government budget is in a deficit that is increasing. By the endo of 2024,
France's budget deficit will be 5.1%. Every year, on average, 500,000 new
immigrants, mainly from the Muslim world, settle in France. Hundreds of
thousands of illegal immigrants reside in the country. Few are expelled. Islamic
no-go zones are growing.
On the evening of July 7, Rebellious France organized a large rally in Paris's
Place de la République. Palestinian flags were everywhere; French flags almost
nowhere. Speakers presented hateful slogans against the National Rally, Israel,
Jewish journalists, and the police. Demonstrators burned cars and trash cans,
and destroyed stores. Many French Jews are aghast. Before the elections, Nazi
hunter Serge Klarsfeld and the former president Representative Council of French
Jewish Institutions, Dr. Richard Prasquier, said that, faced with the rise of
Islamic left-wing anti-Semitism, they had decided to vote for the National
Rally. In fact, the National Rally throughout this period was the only party to
explicitly denounce Islamic left-wing anti-Semitism.
Commenting on the results of the election, the Rabbi Moshe Sebbag, of the Grand
Synagogue of Paris, said, "there is no future for Jews in France". He
recommended that Jews who could, should leave France.
The Olympic Games, which ended on August, featured in the opening ceremony a
decapitated Queen Marie Antoinette, carrying her severed head in her arms, and a
blasphemous reenactment of the Last Supper by drag queens, with a nearly-naked
man, painted blue, served on a platter. The author Éric Zemmour responded on X
"The great architects of this spectacle (Macron, Boucheron, Hidalgo, etc.) have
taken the beauty of Paris, the most beautiful setting in the world, hostage. But
these people are not us. They don't represent us. They are foreign to what we
are. Enemies of what we were. They want to impose on us a vision of Man that is
not ours."
At the end of the ceremony, Macron, to loud boos from the crowd, declared the
Paris Olympic Games open.
The columnist Ivan Rioufol, in a book published seven years ago, analyzing the
first decisions taken by Macron at the start of his presidency, noted that
Macron had acted impulsively; had sought to destroy the political parties that
had governed France for decades; seemed to have no defined guideline, and seemed
to despise the French population. Rioufol added: "His reign will end in a
nightmare".
Are we about to find that out?
*Dr. Guy Millière, a professor at the University of Paris, is the author of 27
books on France and Europe.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Deterrence does not work when dealing with terrorists -
editorial
Jerusalem Post editorial/August 15/2024
Due to the collapse of the three key security assumptions – deterrence, a small,
smart army, and the ability to stand alone – changes have begun to occur. The
October 7 catastrophe shattered several deeply rooted security assumptions.
The first was that Israel’s enemies were deterred, knowing they would be
pummeled by Israel’s superior might if they attacked. The second was that the
country could rely on a small, technologically smart army instead of the larger
forces of the past, since hi-tech solutions could address many of the challenges
previously handled by soldiers. For instance, billion-dollar walls and
state-of-the-art sensors could effectively secure the border without the need
for as many troops. The third assumption was that Israel was positioned, thanks
to generous US military aid, to “deter and defend itself, by itself, against any
threat or possible combination of threats.” That phrase – an Ariel Sharon mantra
– was incorporated into a letter then-US president George Bush wrote to Sharon
in 2004, paving the way for Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza.
Israelis awoke on October 8, however, to the devastating realization that the
enemy was not deterred, that a small, hi-tech army cannot do the job of
defending the country, and that Israel is not able to protect itself, by itself,
against any threat or combination thereof. What was perhaps most eye-opening
about this realization was the last element: that Israel cannot alone deter all
enemies or defend the homeland, and that it needs help – especially American
help. Even more startling is that the type of US help required was not only the
dispatch of aircraft carriers to the Eastern Mediterranean to deter an all-out
Iranian and Hezbollah offensive but also the reliance on the US for the basics
needed to wage a war: bombs, shells, and even bullets.
It is understandable that a country the size of Israel lacks the industrial
capacity to be completely self-sufficient and produce the next-generation war
platforms it needs, and that those will have to be bought from the US. In this
regard, the US approval on Tuesday of a $20 billion arms sale, including 50 F-15
fighter jets, is very welcome and greatly appreciated. However, long-term
contracts for significant weapons platforms will not be filled for years.
October 7 revealed that Israel was reliant on the US not only for the major
platforms but also for bread-and-butter ordnance such as mortar and tank shells,
500- and 1,000-pound bombs, and even rifles – arms that Israel does have the
capacity to produce, but because of a variety of reasons, opted to parcel out to
others.
Changes that must occur
Due to the collapse of the three key security assumptions – deterrence, a small,
smart army, and the ability to stand alone – changes have begun to occur. First,
there is now a much greater realization that deterrence does not work when
dealing with a terrorist organization, and that dismantling their capabilities
is necessary to prevent their attacks. The second significant change is that the
army needs more soldiers – a realization that is leading to the move now to get
more haredim into uniform. The third change involves increasing munitions
independence by locally producing and manufacturing certain armaments and
ordnance the army needs, thereby reducing reliance on the US. In December, the
Defense Ministry’s procurement division launched a local tender to purchase tens
of thousands of assault rifles to replace the US-made M4. It also explored
establishing the first-ever local production line of one-ton bombs, a type of
bomb whose delivery from the US was recently delayed. Israel Hayom reported on
Tuesday that Israel had given the go-ahead to establish this production line and
is also broadening domestic production of other arms, such as tank ammunition
and 155-mm. artillery shells. Defense Ministry Director-General Eyal Zamir was
quoted as describing this as a “large-scale strategic move,” saying: “We are
investing and will continue to invest tens of billions in building
infrastructure and capabilities... to solidify production independence.”
That is a welcome development. Although Israel cannot build all its own
significant weapons platforms, it can significantly increase local production of
some arms, thereby lessening its reliance on the US and reducing pressure some
elements in the US might want to exert on Jerusalem by withholding those arms
during wartime.
Israel forgot about Iran's nuclear threat - will it pay the price? Sources are
mixed on if Jerusalem is ready to stop the bomb
Yonah Jeremy Bob/Jerusalem Post/August 15/2024
Israel is very ready to defend against a massive Iranian conventional missile
and drone strike, against a massive rocket and drone strike from Hezbollah, it
has for now mostly neutered Hamas in Gaza, has terrorists on the run in the West
Bank, and is ready for attacks from Syria, Yemen, or Iraq.
But sources have given the Jerusalem Post mixed signals about how ready Israel
is to stop an Iranian nuclear weapons breakout. In several high level briefings
the Post has been part of where discussion of Iran’s nuclear weapons threat used
to take up a significant amount of the time, the issue is often not mentioned at
all or only discussed briefly as a response if the issue is pushed. The last
significant briefing on the IDF’s capabilities in this area was given before the
war. For several months, the Post has sought to consult on the issue with a
special Iran desk within military intelligence which was revealed to the public
in mid-2023, but has been denied access. Is it because the division is so busy
(almost every part of the IDF’s normally classified units have been repeatedly
shown off to reporters during the current war), because the IDF does not think
its work is important enough to be covered, or to avoid drawing attention to the
unit being distracted by other threats? The fact is that when your attention is
diverted to seven fronts, there is no way you can focus as much on the eighth
front – the nuclear front. Also, all of those seven fronts are actually
threatening right now. The nuclear weapons threat from Iran has hovered over
Israel on different levels for around 25-30 years, but there has never been a
point where the Jewish state felt that the sword might come down on it within a
period of months, let alone weeks or days. Usually, Israel’s lead in combating
Iran’s nuclear threat is the Mossad. Israeli military intelligence and the air
force also play important roles, but it is a given that their attention is
always divided elsewhere even during peacetime, which is why the Mossad has been
the “point-person” on Iran for so long. But Iran has not been Mossad Director’s
main job now for 10 months.
He has been distracted by being the lead Israeli negotiator to recover the
Israeli hostages from Hamas.
This is not a guess or a brilliant scoop.
There have been literally dozens of Barnea’s trips abroad, once hidden in veils
of secrecy, which have been publicly announced.No matter how hooked in we can be
to foreign areas using modern communications, there is no way Barnea can focus
as much on some hidden nuclear move in Iran when he is off globe trotting to
Doha, Cairo, Paris, and elsewhere. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – who used
to be “the” harbinger of doom on Iran – almost never talks about the nuclear
threat, other than with a generic line drop. No one in Israel has publicly
campaigned globally about Iran’s recent progress in installing huge numbers of
advanced centrifuges at its underground Fordow facility. This change is the
first time that Iran could enrich enough uranium for a nuclear weapon entirely
underground without even using other nuclear sites like Natanz.
If before, Iran’s nuclear breakout would be easier to watch because many
components would need to be moved around more from site to site above ground,
now that is less true.
Further, the Post reported from Institute for Science and International Security
President David Albright on Wednesday along with an Iran International report,
that Iran is making real progress in the nuclear detention arena.
If at one point, worries about an Iranian breakout could be assuaged by saying
that all of their uranium enrichment progress still left them two years away
from addressing “weapons group” issues – that time may now have shrunken to less
than six months and may be shrinking even more.
The IAEA is the most blind it has been in around a decade, freely publicly
admitting that it may not even be able to restore what it has missed over the
last few years since the Islamic Republic shut off or removed various
surveillance cameras and kicked out some key inspectors.
Israel’s domestic political arena is mostly focused on being pro or anti a
hostage deal and ceasefire with Hamas, with some temporary headspace for Iran’s
and Hezbollah’s conventional threats, but none of the government’s critics
attacking the government for its silence on the nuclear issue.
The Post has heard from some sources that Israel is always acting on this issue
behind the scenes, but when so much progress has been made by Tehran, one
worries if these activities are enough especially compared to the 2020-2022
period when numerous Iranian nuclear facilities publicly went up in smoke.
The US has not had any policy on Iran’s nuclear program since fall 2023 when its
unofficial deal with Tehran of a partial nuclear progress freeze for partial
sanctions relief fell apart. There has been zero new public US campaigning to
put the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program “back in a box” even as the US
intelligence community in July made strong implied warnings of Iran’s progress
with its nuclear weapons group. And why would America spend time or energy on a
nuclear Iran when it is so distracted by Russia’s war on Ukraine, competition
with China, and the multi-front Middle East war.
The current presidential candidates are not talking about it at all. If they
did, what would they say? Neither the Trump nor the Biden-Harris administrations
succeeded in blocking Iranian nuclear progress. The Trump administration
certainly tried harder using coercive means and the Biden administration using
diplomatic means, but at best each of them sometimes temporarily slowed the
nuclear progress, and some of their actions may have led to that progress
speeding up. All of this means that Iran may be closer for real to a nuclear
bomb than at any prior time at the exact moment that Israel is most distracted –
about as dangerous a recipe as there could be.
https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/article-814958
Iran Could Retaliate, But a War Is Unlikely
Huda al-Husseini/Asharq Al-Awsat/August 15/2024
Traditional wisdom holds that the current war between Israel and Hamas over
Gaza, which began ten months ago, will now escalate significantly after Israel
confirmed that it had been behind the assassination of Fuad Shukr, a senior
military commander of Hezbollah, near Beirut.
The day after Shukr's death, an explosion in an Iranian government guest house
in Tehran instantly killed Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh. While Israel publicly
refused to comment on Haniyeh's death, Mossad officials informed their American
counterparts that Israel had been responsible shortly afterward.
Surprised by Israel's ability to assassinate high-ranking figures, Iran and
Hezbollah have vowed to retaliate. However, they have options for revenge and
many vulnerabilities.
Iran's options for offensive attacks on Israel are limited. It can use ballistic
missiles and locally-manufactured drones, as we saw in April. However, the April
attack was not effective thanks to Israel's highly effective air defenses, which
include the Iron Dome and David's Sling missile defense systems, as well as its
highly trained fighter pilots. If Iran strikes again, Israel can once again also
rely on support from American and British air and naval forces.
Israel’s ability to refuel its fighter jets in Azerbaijan, on Iran's
northwestern border, grants it another fundamental strategic advantage, as this
extends their range and allows the Israeli air force to easily reach military
and economic targets in Iran.
If Iran decides to launch a major attack, Israel can also retaliate using
submarines equipped with conventional and nuclear missiles that are stationed in
the Arabian Sea, right off the Iranian coast.
To sum up, Israel has a strong edge over Iran militarily, meaning that Tehran
will probably proceed cautiously in the event that it decides to clash with
Israel directly. This caution was evident in last April’s attack following an
Israeli airstrike in Damascus that killed a senior Iranian IRGC general.
Given that diplomatic missions are considered national sovereign territory, Iran
felt compelled to respond with a missile attack. However, it softened the blow
by notifying its adversaries of when the attack would be launched.
In addition to ballistic and cruise missiles, we saw the use of hundreds of
slow-moving drones that became easy targets for Israel’s air defenses, as well
as those of the US and British forces that came to Israel’s aid.
In the end, only one projectile was not intercepted, and Iran swiftly made clear
that it considered the matter closed. Earlier this year, Israeli warplanes,
accompanied by refueling tankers, struck oil facilities at the Houthi-controlled
port of Hodeidah in Yemen (a round trip of about 1,900 miles) after a Houthi
missile that hit Tel Aviv, killing one person. Since then, the Houthis have used
a new route for their missiles, approaching Israel from the Mediterranean Sea.
Israel's war with Hezbollah began in 1982. After countless attacks, Hezbollah
eventually expelled the Israelis from Lebanon in 2000. The Israeli Prime
Minister, Ehud Barak, ordered his army to withdraw from the country, allowing
Hezbollah to control the entirety of southern Lebanon.
In 2006, Israel went to war with Hezbollah again. After 34 days of fighting, it
ended in a stalemate. However, Israel inflicted immense damage on Lebanon.
Israeli warplanes deliberately targeted Lebanon's civilian infrastructure,
destroying roads, bridges, dams, and water and power stations. With many
Lebanese civilians blaming Hezbollah for their hardships, the party's
Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah made his famous remark: "If I had known..."
It is said that Moscow also warned Iran against launching a full-scale attack on
Israel, fearing for the lives of Russian citizens there. The US administration,
through Middle Eastern intermediaries and diplomatic backchannels, informed
Tehran that Haniyeh was not killed by an Israeli airstrike but by a
remote-controlled bomb that the Israelis had planted in the room where the Hamas
leader was sleeping. Tehran was urged to reconsider its plan for a military
attack on Israel on the grounds that the explosion killed only Haniyeh and his
bodyguard, without harming any Iranians.
In their efforts to convince Iran not to attack Israel, US officials also warned
Tehran that such an attack would be met with a devastating Israeli response that
could destabilize Iran's newly elected government and further strain the
country's already struggling economy.
This threat suggests that Israel informed the United States that it would target
the infrastructure of Iran's oil industry, including oil fields, refineries,
pipelines, ports, and tankers, as well as Iranian arms manufacturers, in
response to a major Iranian attack.