English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For August 14/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
All who exalt themselves will be humbled, but all who humble themselves will be exalted.’
Luke 18/09-14:” Jesus also told this parable to some who trusted in themselves that they were righteous and regarded others with contempt: ‘Two men went up to the temple to pray, one a Pharisee and the other a tax-collector. The Pharisee, standing by himself, was praying thus, “God, I thank you that I am not like other people: thieves, rogues, adulterers, or even like this tax-collector. I fast twice a week; I give a tenth of all my income.” But the tax-collector, standing far off, would not even look up to heaven, but was beating his breast and saying, “God, be merciful to me, a sinner!” I tell you, this man went down to his home justified rather than the other; for all who exalt themselves will be humbled, but all who humble themselves will be exalted.’”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on August 13-14/2024
Lebanon Prepares Safe Shelters Ahead of Possible Conflict
British foreign secretary to Lebanon: Calm the situation immediately
Hochstein to Be Back in Lebanon This Week
US Diplomatic Efforts to Avoid Escalation: Hochstein's Mission and the Ceasefire Negotiations
Hochstein due in Beirut to resume de-escalation efforts
Israeli drone targets car on Beit Yahoun - Baraachit road
Israel, Hezbollah on edge: US pushes for regional stability before Hamas negotiations
MP says Hezbollah response certain, delay deliberate
Lebanon's PM stresses need for peace in Middle East during call with Britain's Foreign Secretary
Canadian PM urges citizens to leave Lebanon over risk of conflict
Health care system in tatters but still preparing for wider war with Israel
MEA: Flights from Aug. 14 to 18, 2024, to remain on schedule except for some
Lebanon's authorities uncover five bodies in Kfarshima house: Here are the details
Hamiye Launches New Public Transport Line for Buses
FPM’s Autumnal Fall
ISF Arrest One of Lebanon’s Most Notorious Drug Traffickers
Southern Front: Cross Border Clashes on Tuesday Morning
5.5 Magnitude Earthquake Near Homs

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August 13-14/2024
US approves $20 billion in weapons sales to Israel amid threat of wider Middle East war
Blinken postpones Middle East trip amid ‘uncertainty,’ Axios reports
Iran could make 'significant' attack on Israel this week, White House says
Iran rejects Western calls to stand down Israel threat
US, Israel View an Attack by Iran as ‘Increasingly Likely’
Israel Issues Warning Over Iran, Hamas Destabilization of Jordan and West Bank
Public spat highlights cracks in Netanyahu's coalition as Israel braces for feared Iran attack
Netanyahu's office slams Ben-Gvir for breaking Temple Mount status quo
Iranian officials: Only Gaza ceasefire can delay Iran's attack on Israel
Israeli forces kill Palestinian in West Bank raids, Palestinian medics say
Rocket fired from Gaza falls in sea off Tel Aviv: Israeli army
Israeli strikes on Gaza leave children without parents and parents without children
Netanyahu denies claims he changed conditions of hostage deal negotiations
Iran president adviser says anti-Israel response to be 'intelligence-based'
Iran Dismisses European Calls for Restraint
White House: Iran Could Make 'Significant' Attack on Israel this Week
Suspected Attacks by Yemen's Houthis Target Shipping in Red Sea
Yemen’s Houthis seized UN rights office in Sanaa, UN official says
Russia says it thwarted a Ukrainian charge to expand its incursion. Kyiv says it won't occupy land
Projectiles did not impact US base in Syria, US officials say

Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on August 13-14/2024
Time for US Jews to embrace the Republican Party/Michael Freund/Jerusalem Post/August 13/2024
Off grid: How does Yahya Sinwar lead Hamas from underground?/Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/August 13/2024
Pope Francis Finally Condemns Olympics’ Anti-Christian Mockery (to Please Muslims)/Raymond Ibrahim/The Stream/August 13/2024
Hamas 'Politicians' and Terrorists: No Difference Between Them/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/August 13, 2024
Iran: The Next Nuclear Weapons State?/Andrea Stricker/ National Security Journal/August 13, 2024
Tactical Calculations Shape Middle East Security/Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al Awsat/August 13/2024
Why Iran may be looking to ultimate deterrent: a nuclear weapon/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/August 13, 2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on August 13-14/2024
Lebanon Prepares Safe Shelters Ahead of Possible Conflict
Beirut: Youssef Diab/Asharq Al Awsat/August 13/2024
Lebanon's government has completed its emergency plan to handle a possible conflict with Israel and has fully prepared its administrative, health, and logistical agencies.
The plan primarily involves converting public schools into shelters for displaced people and equipping them with necessary supplies. Israel's military and Lebanon’s Hezbollah have traded strikes since the current war in Gaza began, but tensions have escalated since an Israeli strike in a Beirut suburb killed Fouad Shukr, a top Hezbollah commander, last month. Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate.In a recent ministerial meeting, Lebanese caretaker Environment Minister Nasser Yassin, who heads the Emergency and Disaster Response Committee, said the goal was to “ensure the readiness of crisis cells across all provinces and strengthen them if needed.”Yassin explained that discussions with governors focused on the shelters. A list of these has been created in collaboration with the Ministry of Education, which is working with a taskforce to prepare the schools. He added that the committee and the Ministry of Education are preparing more schools for emergencies, verifying their readiness and ensuring they have essential supplies. These shelters will be equipped with bedding, hygiene products, and food. Funding will come from the treasury and support from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and other international organizations. Yassin noted that if displacement reaches levels seen in 2006, with about one million displaced, the committee will need $100 million per month. This funding will be secured through emergency credits and support from international organizations. The Committee is compiling a list of shelters and evaluating their capacities. A committee source told Asharq Al-Awsat that shelters are selected based on several criteria: they must be located away from high-risk areas, have enough space and basic facilities, and be easily accessible from regions affected by Israeli airstrikes. The shelters also need to allow easy entry and exit for relief teams. The source confirmed that all selected shelters meet these requirements.

British foreign secretary to Lebanon: Calm the situation immediately
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/August 13, 2024
BEIRUT: British Foreign Secretary David Lammy spoke to Najib Mikati, Lebanese caretaker prime minister, by phone on Tuesday and stressed “the necessity for all parties to calm the situation urgently and immediately.”According to Mikati’s media office, Lammy said: “This is a critical moment for stability in the Middle East, and there can be no further delay. The fighting must stop now.”Lebanese citizens have been left holding their breath while awaiting Iran-backed Hezbollah’s promised retaliation for Israel’s assassination of the group’s prominent military commander Fuad Shukr late last month in the heart of Beirut’s southern suburbs. There is fear that the response — along with Iran’s promised retaliation for the assassination of Hamas’ political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran — could spark a broader conflict in the ongoing war that has lasted for more than 10 months between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and between Israel and Hezbollah on Lebanon’s southern front. Multiple political and diplomatic sources in Beirut have reported that US envoy Amos Hochstein will arrive in the city on Wednesday after first stopping in Tel Aviv to conduct a new round of talks aimed at de-escalation and preventing the war from spreading. Hochstein is scheduled to meet Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri, and Mikati. According to these reports, Hochstein “carries a stern message to Israeli and Lebanese officials that there is no room for maneuvering. The war will harm both sides and if they do not go to negotiations today, it will cost them a lot of blood and destruction. Ultimately, every war ends with negotiations, so they should go to the negotiations today instead of bringing further destruction to their countries.”Iran’s Tasnim News Agency quoted Lebanese sources as saying that “Hochstein is returning to Beirut in an attempt to prevent Hezbollah from retaliating against Israel, offering no solution to the crisis.” Hostilities between the Israeli army and Hezbollah persisted on the ground at a relatively subdued level on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the General Directorate of General Security issued a warning to both “military personnel and civilians, regarding WhatsApp or SMS messages that invite recipients to click on links to apply for work-from-home opportunities in return for payment.”The statement added: “Recipients are advised not to engage with the sender, to block the sending number, and to remain vigilant to prevent becoming victims of phone hacking and possible exploitation as agents for Israel.”Lebanon has lodged a formal complaint to the UN Security Council concerning interference with its communications through cyber jamming. In addition, Hezbollah has cautioned its supporters against utilizing an internet network compromised by Israeli forces. Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary-general of Hezbollah, has urged residents in the southern areas to deactivate internet-connected cameras installed outside homes to prevent potential hacking by Israel, which could then be used to track Hezbollah’s operatives.

Hochstein to Be Back in Lebanon This Week
Michael Al Andary/This Is Beirut/August 13/2024
US special presidential envoy Amos Hochstein is expected to arrive in the region in the next hours amidst high tensions and growing risks of escalation, as Iran and its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, are set to retaliate to Israel’s assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and a top Hezbollah military commander in southern Beirut. Hochstein, is expected to visit Beirut on Wednesday, after holding talks with Israeli officials in Tel Aviv. According to An Nahar newspaper, he will arrive in Beirut from Israel on Wednesday and meet with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Thursday. “In his visits to Ain El-Tineh (parliament Speaker’s seat), Hochstein always presents ideas with a threatening content,” says a security source requesting anonymity. In an interview with This is Beirut, the source affirms that “Hochstein will set an equation which conveys the Israeli perspective, saying that Hezbollah is responsible for opening this supportive front for Gaza, therefore the party should either halt fire or bear the consequences.”MTV Television indicates that Hochstein will carry a stern message to Lebanese and Israeli officials, that there is no room for maneuvering, and that the war will be detrimental to both sides. According to the security source, “if both sides do not resort to negotiations, it will cost them a lot of blood and destruction, and negotiations would be halted.”Hochstein will propose that Hezbollah hands over the region south of the Litani to the Lebanese government, in the event that a ceasefire in Gaza is reached.According to Iran’s Tasnim news agency, Hochstein is visiting Beirut to “try to prevent Hezbollah from responding to Israel, without conveying any solution to the crisis.”However, Hochstein’s visit to Beirut will be directly linked to the answers he will get in Tel Aviv. Meanwhile, all eyes will be turned to Cairo, where crucial ceasefire negotiations are to be held later this week.

US Diplomatic Efforts to Avoid Escalation: Hochstein's Mission and the Ceasefire Negotiations

LBCI/August 13/2024
The priorities of the United States in the region have not changed, particularly concerning the southern Lebanese front and northern occupied Palestine. The primary goal remains to avoid a larger war on Lebanon's borders. Will Amos Hochstein's efforts succeed this time as expected in favoring diplomatic solutions over war? Based on available information, Hochstein's visit does not bring new or decisive proposals for a solution, or at least proposals convincing Hezbollah to retract its response to the assassination of Fouad Shokor and halt its support for Gaza. What the US is trying to achieve through this visit is to warn of the potential damage on the battlefield, economy, and politics if the situation escalates into a large-scale war. Thus, the aim is to encourage de-escalation on the southern front. It is reported that Hochstein will deliver a stern message to the parties involved in escalating the war, emphasizing that "there is no room for maneuvering, and the conflict will cause damage to both sides. If they do not agree to negotiate, it will result in significant bloodshed and destruction for everyone involved."Despite attempts to preempt Hochstein's arrival in Beirut by leaking information and exaggerating the threat to Lebanon, Hezbollah's position remains unchanged. Sources familiar with the group's position stated: "For Hezbollah, the 'natural' way to avoid the escalation is to stop the war on Gaza. Therefore, any proposal that excludes this process is not considered a solution."While no significant outcomes are expected in Lebanon, various US efforts in the region are ongoing: Hochstein in Beirut, while Axios reports a tour by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, which includes Israel, Qatar, and Egypt. Blinken stated that the aim of the visit is to join the efforts to establish a ceasefire in Gaza and avoid escalation, joining CIA Director William Burns and White House Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Brett McGurk, who began a mission in Cairo focused specifically on the fate of the Rafah crossing. From there, he will head to Doha, where negotiations concerning Gaza will take place on Thursday. This move seeks to finalize a hostage deal and a ceasefire in Gaza in the upcoming negotiations on Thursday, aiming to prevent Iranian and Hezbollah retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh and Fouad Shokor. Meanwhile, a joint statement from the US, UK, France, Germany, and Italy emerged, emphasizing the importance of Thursday's talks and the need to finalize the deal; it also warned of the dangers of going to war in the region and affirmed support for Israel in facing any Iranian threats.

Hochstein due in Beirut to resume de-escalation efforts

Naharnet/August 13/2024
U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein will visit Lebanon this week in an attempt to contain escalating tensions between Hezbollah and Israel, media reports said. Lebanon has been on a knife's edge since a strike on Beirut's southern suburbs last week killed Hezbollah's top military commander, just hours before the assassination, blamed on Israel, of Hamas' political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Iran and Hezbollah have vowed revenge, amid fears that retaliatory attacks could spiral into all-out war, with airlines suspending flights to Lebanon and countries imploring foreign nationals to leave. Hochstein is expected to arrive Wednesday in Beirut to resume negotiations with Lebanese leaders, after a visit to Israel. "Hochstein will not offer a solution," pro-Hezbollah al-Akhbar newspaper said, adding that the American diplomat would rather deliver "intimidating messages" and "threats" to Lebanon. Hochstein last visited Beirut and Israel in June in an attempt to avoid a further escalation and to negotiate a ceasefire on Lebanon's border.

Israeli drone targets car on Beit Yahoun - Baraachit road
Naharnet/August 13/2024
An Israeli drone targeted Tuesday a car on the Beit Yahoun - Baraachit road as Hezbollah attacked surveillance equipment in Misgav Am and groups of soldiers in the occupied Kfarshouba Hills and in the Mattat barracks in northern Israel.
Israeli tanks meanwhile shelled a house in the southern border town of Abbasiyyeh while artillery bombed the outskirts of al-Naqoura, Tayrharfa and Zebqine. Israeli warplanes had raided overnight the southern border towns of Mays al-Jabal and Marwahin. Hezbollah has traded near-daily fire with Israel in support of its ally Hamas since the Palestinian militant group's October 7 attack on Israel triggered war in Gaza. The cross-border violence since early October has killed at least 565 people in Lebanon, most of them fighters but also including at least 116 civilians, according to an AFP tally. On the Israeli side, including in the annexed Golan Heights, 22 soldiers and 26 civilians have been killed, according to military figures. Thousands have been displaced from both sides of the border due to the fighting.

Israel, Hezbollah on edge: US pushes for regional stability before Hamas negotiations
LBCI/August 13/2024
Less than 48 hours before resuming the anticipated negotiations between Hamas and Israel, and amid fears of a broader regional war, the United States is working to prevent an escalation between Israel and Lebanon.  The goal is to facilitate an agreement between Israel and Hamas regarding a prisoner exchange deal, which could serve as the first step toward ending the war in Gaza and across various fronts. The US efforts face challenges, with Israeli, American, and international stakeholders expressing concern over the potential failure of these negotiations. This is due to the internal disputes over the prisoner deal and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's insistence on continuing the fight until the war objectives are met. Security and political experts warn that a lack of significant progress in Thursday's negotiations could lead to further security deterioration, which all parties are working to avoid. While the US has increased its military readiness in the Middle East to support Israel, its diplomatic efforts are focused on Tel Aviv, Beirut, Doha, and Cairo. In Tel Aviv, US envoy Amos Hochstein continues his efforts to prevent the war from escalating. However, Israel has downplayed the significance of his meetings and keeps his activities out of the media spotlight. Meanwhile, the Israeli military has heightened its surveillance of Hezbollah's movements. A military report indicates that the Israeli army has been given the green light to strike Lebanon if it becomes apparent that Hezbollah is preparing a large-scale attack. Additionally, military evaluations suggest that Hezbollah may attempt a ground invasion of Israeli territory. Scenarios include Hezbollah forces breaching the border, raising their flag at an Israeli settlement, or attacking military bases and facilities.In parallel, Israel is maintaining its highest level of readiness for a potential Iranian attack. As US Secretary of State Antony Blinken prepares for discussions with Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, internal efforts are underway to prevent a new front from igniting in the West Bank. This follows the recent incursion by settlers led by extremist Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir into Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, which some view as an attempt to derail the prisoner exchange deal.The far-right's stance against engaging in negotiations challenges American efforts, posing a broader threat not only to the prisoner deal but to the stability of the Middle East as a whole.

MP says Hezbollah response certain, delay deliberate
Naharnet/August 13/2024
A Hezbollah lawmaker on Tuesday said that his group’s objective from the Lebanon front against Israel is to “press the enemy to halt the aggression against Gaza.”“This is a course that the resistance is pressing with according to its known calculations and equations,” MP Ali Fayyad said. “As for the course of the response to the assassination of the great jihadi leader Fouad Shukur and the great Palestinian leader Ismail Haniyeh, it is a different course, and the response will inevitably come,” Fayyad added. “As for the delay in the response, this is a calculated part of the resistance’s performance and its management of the battle,” the legislator went on to say.

Lebanon's PM stresses need for peace in Middle East during call with Britain's Foreign Secretary
LBCI/August 13/2024
Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati received a call from Britain's Foreign Secretary David Lammy, during which they discussed the relations between the two countries and the situation in Lebanon and the region. During the call, the British Foreign Secretary stated: "This is a critical moment for stability in the Middle East. There can be no more delays; the fighting must stop now."He reiterated the urgent need for all parties to de-escalate the situation immediately, underlining the gravity of the current situation. The Prime Minister thanked the British minister for the UK government's ongoing interest in Lebanon and its commitment to maintaining stability.

Canadian PM urges citizens to leave Lebanon over risk of conflict
Agence France Presse/August 13/2024
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has urged Canadians to leave Lebanon, warning of the risk of escalating regional conflict between Israel and others, including Hezbollah. "We see that the risk of escalation is real," he said Monday at a press conference. "We're encouraging and asking all Canadians to please leave Lebanon while there are commercial routes available."Tens of thousands of Canadians are believed to be living in the country, which has already seen Hezbollah trade near-daily fire with Israel in support of its ally Hamas. An Israeli strike on the Lebanese capital Beirut's southern suburbs late last month killed Hezbollah's top military commander, Fouad Shukur, just hours before the assassination, blamed on Israel, of Hamas's political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. On Monday, the U.S. government warned that Iran could launch a "significant attack" on Israel this week, in retaliation against the assassination in Tehran.
Canada issued an advisory in late June against travel to Lebanon, citing a "volatile and unpredictable" situation with the possibility of violence between Hezbollah and Israel flaring up without warning. Its military is setting up emergency resources in Cyprus to evacuate its nationals from the region if commercial flights from Lebanon are halted.

Health care system in tatters but still preparing for wider war with Israel
Associated Press/August 13/2024
Lebanon's crisis-battered health care system is now preparing for the possibility of a devastating wider conflict with Israel, the country's health minister told The Associated Press in an interview. Israel's military and Lebanon's powerful Hezbollah have traded strikes since the current war in Gaza began, but tensions have escalated since an Israeli strike in a Beirut suburb killed a top Hezbollah commander last month. Hezbollah has vowed to retaliate. Lebanon's caretaker government, amid diplomatic maneuvering for de-escalation, is trying to prepare for the worst with a tattered budget, a deeply divided parliament and no president. "The Lebanese health system had to adjust to multiple crises," caretaker Health Minister Firas Abiad said. Health care facilities cut costs by keeping inventory at a minimum, leaving little backup for emergencies, he said. Now inventory has been built up to four months' worth of critical supplies. "We hope that all the efforts we are doing for preparing for this emergency go to waste" and a wider war is averted, Abiad said. "The best thing that we want is for all of this to turn out to be unnecessary." Inside Gaza, the health system has been decimated. Abiad said Lebanese health authorities take the possibility of hospitals being targeted in a wider conflict "very seriously." Already, he said, almost two dozen paramedics and health care workers in southern Lebanon have been killed in Israeli strikes. They include paramedics from medical groups affiliated with Hezbollah and allied groups that have filled the gaps in areas with limited state services. Israeli strikes have hit deeper into Lebanon in recent weeks, and sonic booms from military jets rattle Beirut. Much of the border region is in rubble. The Mediterranean country's health sector was once renowned as one of the best in the region. But Lebanon has faced compounding crises since 2019, including a fiscal one that followed decades of corruption and mismanagement. Other challenges include the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 Beirut Port explosion that damaged or destroyed key healthcare infrastructure and dwindling international aid to help Lebanon host more than 1 million Syrian refugees. Lebanese hospitals in 2021 were at breaking point, barely able to keep the lights on and short on medicine. Abiad said the health sector has shown resilience before, and he hopes it will again. "During the (port) blast, the system was able to absorb an excess of 6,000 casualties in a matter of 12 hours," he said. "There is, I would say, a determination within our health care system to provide the needed care to all the people who require it." But resilience might not be enough for the troubled country and its 6 million people. The financial crisis has left government agencies beholden to humanitarian organizations for cash injections and supplies. Last week, the health ministry received 32 tons of emergency medical aid from the World Health Organization. But U.N. agencies and other humanitarian groups have had to reallocate funds from existing work to provide aid to about 100,000 people who have fled southern Lebanon since the current war in Gaza began. Abiad said some issues are out of the ministry's control, including securing fuel for electricity and petrol for ambulances, as well as supporting the almost 800,000 U.N.-registered Syrian refugees in the country. Health care resources are not sufficient for refugees in particular, Abiad said: "The international community really has to pull its weight and chip in with this particular issue."

MEA: Flights from Aug. 14 to 18, 2024, to remain on schedule except for some

LBCI/August 13/2024
Middle East Airlines (MEA) announced that its flights from Aug. 14 to Aug. 18, 2024, will remain on schedule, except for some flights adjusted for technical reasons related to the distribution of insurance risk on aircraft between Lebanon and abroad.
To check the schedule, press here.

Lebanon's authorities uncover five bodies in Kfarshima house: Here are the details
LBCI/August 13/2024
In a shocking discovery, Lebanese army intelligence found five bodies inside a house in the town of Kfarshima, specifically in the Haret ed Dayr area. The investigation began after local residents filed complaints about the strange and aggressive behavior of two brothers who live in the house with their elderly mother.Neighbors had reported assaults and disturbing actions by the siblings. Acting on a judicial warrant, army intelligence entered the house and made the discovery. The two brothers are currently missing, while their mother, who is in her 90s, remains at the residence. Locals described the brothers' behavior as odd, with some speculating that they might have been burying bodies, including their father's, in the house. The Lebanese army has handed over the case to the Internal Security Forces (ISF), who will continue the investigation under judicial supervision to identify the deceased and uncover the full details of this case. Watch the LBCI news bulletin report in Arabic in the video above.

Hamiye Launches New Public Transport Line for Buses

This Is Beirut/August 13/2024
Caretaker Minister of Public Works and Transport Ali Hamiye inaugurated a new public transport line on Tuesday, connecting Nahr al-Mot to Baabda.
This move is part of a larger plan initiated on July 10, which aims to deploy 96 public transport buses across Lebanon. Minister Hamiye emphasized the significance of this new line for citizens, stating, “This line is crucial for our citizens to efficiently reach Baabda and complete their necessary transactions. It marks the beginning of a broader initiative to enhance shared transportation across Lebanon.”He also announced plans to expand the network, revealing, “The timetable for the opening of additional shared transport lines is set. Soon, we will be launching lines to Chtaura, Baalbek, Sidon, Tyre, and Tripoli.”Governor of Mount Lebanon Mohammad Makkawi underscored the broader impact of this initiative, noting, “Expanding the shared transport network is a necessity, which will enable citizens from various regions to benefit. In these delicate economic times, such initiatives are not just beneficial but essential.”Ziad Nasr, Director General of Shared Transportation, detailed plans for distributing the new lines and expanding services to meet the growing demand for affordable and reliable public transport in the country.

FPM’s Autumnal Fall
Johnny Kortbawi /This Is Beirut/August 13/2024
The Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) is unraveling. Despite this breakdown, a complete collapse seems unlikely due to the steadfast loyalty of its popular base. Unfortunately, this fracturing is happening under the watch of former President Michel Aoun. Many expected that the party would lose significant support after Aoun’s presidency, especially as some MPs are uncomfortable with his continued influence but are unwilling to distance themselves as long as he remains active in politics. Elias Bou Saab, however, could no longer tolerate the internal practices of FPM leader Gebran Bassil, leading to his frustrated departure. Alain Aoun followed suit, and Simon Abi Ramia also left in protest against the ongoing turmoil within the party. Several other MPs have expressed a desire to leave but are holding back for various reasons, waiting for the right moment.
The issue lies with the party’s justifications. FPM supporters launched an online campaign, directing various accusations at the outgoing MPs, labeling them as “Berri’s MPs” or “Shaghouri’s MPs.” However, what has been overlooked is that Simon Abi Ramia and Alain Aoun have been serving as MPs since 2009, enduring numerous crises and accusations during the 2019 revolution while remaining steadfast. Their departure reflects dissatisfaction with the party’s unilateral decision-making. Meanwhile, the parliamentary bloc currently consists of MPs who remain loyal to Gebran Bassil, come what may.
On the other hand, the public struggled to reconcile the contradictory reactions. They lambasted the Lebanese Forces (LF) for seeming to revel in the departure of the FPM MPs, conveniently forgetting how they reacted when two LF MPs previously did the same. The situation has come full circle.
In a nutshell, the FPM held over 70% of the popular representation when General Aoun returned to Lebanon in 2005. This percentage dropped to 50% after he signed the Mar Mikhail agreement with Hezbollah in 2006 and further decreased in the 2009 elections. The percentage further dropped to 35% in the 2018 elections, following the first two years of Aoun’s presidency, which were marked by issues such as the naturalization decree and controversial deals with the ruling authority involving power ships, dams, and appointments. By 2022, the FPM’s popular support had plummeted to less than 20% of the Christian vote. Nevertheless, the party secured six seats with the help of its allies, particularly Hezbollah, in Beirut II, Western Bekaa, Zahleh, and Baalbek-Hermel, even though other candidates received more preferential votes than the FPM’s own candidates. With the resignation of three MPs, the FPM’s effective representation has dropped from 19 to 16 MPs, and without relying on external votes, it stands at 10 MPs. This situation does not spell the end of the party, as it will still be able to win over MPs. However, it marks the end of the myth of its dominant influence. Gebran Bassil is no longer as politically influential as Sleiman Frangieh.

ISF Arrest One of Lebanon’s Most Notorious Drug Traffickers
This Is Beirut/August 13/2024
A raid by the Lebanese Internal Security Forces (ISF) led to the arrest of “one of the most dangerous drug traffickers, M.J. (born 1984, Lebanese) wanted for the manufacturing, promotion, and smuggling of Captagon pills. His smuggling operations included countries such as Kuwait, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Libya, and Turkey. According to an ISF press release issued on Tuesday, the suspect was arrested on July 5 in Halat. He was accompanied by two other people, including a Syrian. During interrogation, the suspect confessed to collaborating with his brother-in-law in the manufacturing and smuggling of narcotics. According to the ISF statement, the suspect added that his wife (N.C.) owns two money transfer offices linked to smuggling operations. He also confessed to assigning the transport of drugs to A.A., holding Syrian and Turkish nationalities, through Beirut airport (BEY). This person was arrested at the airport on his return from Brazil with 8 kg of cocaine in his luggage. Around 12,000 USD, 3 cars, and 2 military pistols were seized along with the detainees, and legal action was taken against them. “The two money transfer offices belonging to N.C. have been closed, and investigations are underway to arrest all those involved, in coordination with the competent judicial authorities,” concluded the statement.

Southern Front: Cross Border Clashes on Tuesday Morning

This Is Beirut/August 13/2024
Tension continued on the southern front between Hezbollah and Israel on Tuesday morning. Israeli artillery fire targeted the outskirts of Marjayoun, Aita al-Shaab, and Kfar Kila. Israeli reconnaissance aircraft flew intensively on Monday evening and Tuesday morning over villages in the Tyre and Bint Jbeil districts. According to Israeli media, a salvo of rockets from Lebanon targeted the Upper Galilee without causing any casualties. A drone also entered the airspace of Kiryat Shmona and its surroundings in northern Israel, where alarm sirens were heard. According to the Israeli Army spokesman, the drone from Lebanon was intercepted by the Israeli Army’s air defense after the alarm sirens went off, according to the same media. For its part, Hezbollah claimed to have targeted spy equipment at the Israeli Misgav site, as well as the Mitat post. During the night, the Israeli Army fired flares over the border villages adjacent to the Blue Line.

5.5 Magnitude Earthquake Near Homs
This Is Beirut/August 13/2024
A 5.5 earthquake hit central Syria late Monday, with the shock felt in neighboring Lebanon, official media in both countries said. AFP journalists in Beirut and Damascus also said they felt the tremor. “An earthquake of 5.5 on the Richter scale struck east of Hama city at 11:56 pm,” Syria’s state-run SANA news agency said, quoting Raed Ahmed, who heads the National Earthquake Centre. The United States Geological Survey said the quake that struck Syria had a magnitude of 5.0. Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency said “some residents of Beirut” and other areas “felt a light earthquake at 11:56 pm”.On February 6, 2023, a pre-dawn 7.8-magnitude tremor killed nearly 60,000 people in Turkey and Syria. According to Damascus, the earthquake killed more than 1,400 people in government-controlled areas of Syria, while more than 4,500 died in areas held by opposition factions in the country’s northwest. On Monday in Syria’s Turkish-controlled north, many residents rushed out of their houses in a panic, an AFP correspondent reported. They were still traumatised from last year’s deadly quake that flattened buildings throughout the country’s north. Damascus resident Roba, who did not give her last name, said the latest quake revived painful memories of last year’s devastating tremor. “We panicked and rushed out of the building,” said the 35-year-old accountant. “I was afraid that what happened during the last earthquake would happen again,” with entire buildings collapsing on sleeping people, she said. “We do not have the courage to go back to the 11th floor where we live.”With AFP

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August 13-14/2024
US approves $20 billion in weapons sales to Israel amid threat of wider Middle East war
Tara Copp/WASHINGTON (AP)/ August 13, 2024
The U.S. has approved $20 billion in arms sales to Israel, including scores of fighter jets and advanced air-to-air missiles, the State Department announced Tuesday. Congress was notified of the impending sale, which includes more than 50 F-15 fighter jets, Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles, or AMRAAMs, 120 mm tank ammunition and high explosive mortars and tactical vehicles and comes at a time of intense concern that Israel may become involved in a wider Middle East war. However, the weapons are not expected to get to Israel anytime soon, they are contracts that will take years to fulfill. Much of what is being sold is to help Israel increase its military capability in the long term. “The United States is committed to the security of Israel, and it is vital to U.S. national interests to assist Israel to develop and maintain a strong and ready self-defense capability. This proposed sale is consistent with those objectives,” the State Department said in a release on the sale. The Biden administration has had to balance its continued support for Israel with a growing number of calls from lawmakers and the U.S. public to curb military support there due to the high number of civilian deaths in Gaza. It has curbed one delivery of 2,000-pound weapons amid continued airstrikes by Israel in densely populated civilian areas in Gaza. The contracts will cover not only the sale of new 50 aircraft to be produced by Boeing. It will also include upgrade kits for Israel to modify its existing fleet of two dozen F-15 fighter jets with new engines and radars, among other upgrades. The jets comprise the biggest portion of the $20 billion in sales with the first deliveries expected in 2029.

Blinken postpones Middle East trip amid ‘uncertainty,’ Axios reports
Reuters/August 13, 2024
WASHINGTON: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has postponed his trip to the Middle East, delaying his planned Tuesday departure, Axios reported ahead of planned Gaza ceasefire talks this week. The top US diplomat’s travel was delayed over “uncertainty about the situation,” Axios said, citing two unnamed sources. On Tuesday, Hamas fired two rockets aimed at Tel Aviv for the first time in months while Israel launched separate deadly airstrikes in Gaza. On Monday, US officials had said they expected Thursday’s talks to continue as planned.

Iran could make 'significant' attack on Israel this week, White House says
Agence France Presse/August 13, 2024
The White House has said that it shares the Israeli intelligence assessment that Iran could launch a strike on Israel as soon as this week. National security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters Monday that “it is difficult to ascertain at this particular time if there’s an attack by Iran or its proxies what it could look like,” but that the U.S. and its allies were preparing for “a significant set of attacks.”This comes after the Pentagon beefed up the U.S. military posture in the Middle East, and after Biden held a call Monday morning with the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom to coordinate their response to tensions in the region. “The president is confident that we have the capability available to us to help defend Israel should it come to that,” Kirby said. “Nobody wants to see it come to that.”The possibility of such an attack coming this week, “is a U.S. assessment as well as an Israeli assessment,” Kirby said.

Iran rejects Western calls to stand down Israel threat
Agence France Presse/August 13, 2024
Iran on Tuesday rejected Western calls to stand down its threat to retaliate against Israel for the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran late last month. "The declaration by France, Germany and Britain, which raised no objection to the international crimes of the Zionist regime, brazenly asks Iran to take no deterrent action against a regime which has violated its sovereignty and territorial integrity," foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani said in a statement. "Such a request lacks political logic, flies in the face of the principles and rules of international law, and constitutes public and practical support" for Israel.

US, Israel View an Attack by Iran as ‘Increasingly Likely’
Courtney McBride/Bloomberg/August 13, 2024
The US believes an Iranian attack against Israel has grown even more likely and may come as soon as this week, officials said, as allied leaders sought to head off all-out war and the Pentagon deployed more forces to the region.
Briefing reporters Monday, White House spokesman John Kirby said the US and its allies “have to be prepared for what could be a significant set of attacks.” Israel believes it’s “increasingly likely that there’ll be an attack” by Iran and its proxies, Kirby said. “We share those concerns.” Listen to the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere you listen. The implications were underscored by Fitch Ratings decision to downgrade Israel’s sovereign debt by one notch, to A from A+, while keeping a negative outlook and citing “continued war” and geopolitical risks. The White House comments were the strongest indications yet that officials expect that an attack may come at any time. Some have been puzzled that it has yet to happen, given Iran has threatened for days to retaliate after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran — a killing that Israel has yet to take responsibility for.
In the meantime, allies are doing everything they can to head off an Iranian strike, which they fear could spark a wider regional war. That effort has focused on trying to inject new life into cease-fire talks involving the war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is scheduled to travel to the Middle East on Tuesday night, Axios reporter Barak Ravid said in a X post, citing an unidentified source. He will travel to Qatar, Egypt and Israel, according to the post.
The last time Iran attacked Israel, in April, it fired hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones, almost all of which were intercepted. Casualties were limited, and Israel responded at the time with a limited drone operation but elected not to escalate further. Officials worry this time could be different, especially if an Iranian attack results in many dead or wounded. In a joint statement Monday, President Joe Biden and the leaders of France, Germany, Italy and the UK backed efforts to complete a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas and secure the release of hostages held by Hamas. They called for “unfettered delivery and distribution of aid” and endorsed “the defense of Israel against Iranian aggression and against attacks by Iran-backed terrorist groups.” UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke to Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, asking that Iran refrain from attacking Israel and “adding that war was not in anyone’s interest,” according to a Downing Street spokesperson.
“We don’t know when it will happen and if it will happen,” Colonel Gilead Shenhar of the Israel Defense Forces’ Homefront Command, which is in charge of civilian emergency preparedness, told Tel Aviv radio station 103 FM on Tuesday. “It’s possible that we will quickly transition from tense routine to the attack phase, which we refer to as ‘zero to sixty’.” In a disclosure that may add new complications to the hostage release negotiations, Hamas, which is designated a terrorist group by the US and European Union, said Monday that two of its militants killed a male hostage and severely wounded two female hostages in separate incidents. It said in the statement that Israel’s airstrikes in Gaza stir reactions that threaten the lives of hostages. The US, Qatar and Egypt have called for a new round of talks on Aug. 15. But Hamas has pushed back against the proposal, saying discussions should center on implementing previous plans. Israel has agreed to attend the talks. One Israeli official said they would take place in Doha with a focus on whether Hamas might relent on truce terms. Another Israeli official said Arab mediators would confer with Hamas afterward if the group boycotts the session. Israel hasn’t yielded on its main terms, said the officials, who spoke to Bloomberg News on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the issue. On Sunday, the Pentagon announced it was sending even more forces to the region, including the USS Georgia, a submarine equipped with more than 150 Tomahawk missiles. That in itself is an unusual show of force given that the US rarely discloses the movements of its nuclear-powered submarine fleet, and Tomahawks have been used to strike ground targets in the region in the past. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier and its strike group to speed up their arrival in the region. The vessel carries F-35 fighter jets, which could help strike targets and intercept any Iranian attacks. Acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani described an attack on Israel as “inevitable,” Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani told Italian news broadcast TG4. Tajani said any escalation would be a mistake and Iran should first evaluate the cease-fire negotiations. “But it seems to me that the Iranians are in a very difficult position,” he said.

Israel Issues Warning Over Iran, Hamas Destabilization of Jordan and West Bank
FDD/August 13/2024
Latest Developments
Israel’s foreign minister warned that Iran and its Palestinian terrorist proxy Hamas are attempting to destabilize both Jordan and the Palestinian Authority (PA)-controlled West Bank by smuggling weapons and funds through the Hashemite Kingdom. In a post on X on August 12, Israel Katz asserted that “a serious and dangerous situation is unfolding” as units of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) “are collaborating with Hamas operatives in Lebanon to smuggle weapons and funds into Jordan with the aim of destabilizing the regime.”
Following decades of discreet bilateral cooperation, Israel has generally avoided public comment on Jordanian security matters, even in the face of often ferocious policy criticism from Amman. However, Katz’s post emphasized that Iran is “work(ing) to establish a new eastern terror front against Israel’s major population centers.” This, he said, entails collaborating with Hamas terrorists in neighboring Lebanon to deliver weapons and money into Jordan “with the aim of destabilizing the regime.” The weapons are then smuggled into the West Bank, giving Iran de facto control of Palestinian areas that are nominally under PA governance and creating springboards for attacks on Israelis.
Separately, Israel’s Army Radio reported that the IDF may soon set up a new division for securing the porous Jordanian border. The IDF confirmed that such a proposal was under consideration.
Expert Analysis
“Since the 1970s, the Hashemite Kingdom has looked to Israel to guarantee its survival in the face of regional threats. But all the while it has indulged in anti-Israel lip service in the hope of mollifying its Palestinian majority. The censure has only surged during the Gaza war. It’s time for the double game to end.” — Mark Dubowitz, FDD CEO
“Iran’s role in the uptick of violence in the West Bank has been a persistent challenge for Israel since June 2021. The regime identified and exploited the Palestinian Authority’s weak governance in the West Bank by flooding the territory with weapons and bolstering its clients. For its part, the Palestinian Authority understands Iran’s meddling is eroding its influence, yet it has done little to alter this troubling dynamic.” — Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst at FDD’s Long War Journal
Iran Deploying Criminal Network to Smuggle Weapons Into Jordan
Iran is employing a network of militants, criminals, and intelligence operatives to smuggle weapons into the West Bank, The New York Times reported on April 9, citing a group of unnamed Iranian, American, and Israeli officials. Iranian operatives hand off the weapons to Bedouin smugglers in Jordan who deliver the caches to criminal gangs at the Israeli border. On August 4, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi arrived in Tehran as regional tensions escalated following the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Safadi said on X that he delivered a message from Jordan’s King Abdullah to Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian “about the regional situation” and “held talks with the [Iranian] Foreign Minister about the dangerous escalation taking place in the region.”

Public spat highlights cracks in Netanyahu's coalition as Israel braces for feared Iran attack
JERUSALEM (AP)/August 13, 2024
Cracks are widening in a public tiff between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his moderate defense minister, the latest spat showing growing discontent with Netanyahu’s handling of the war at a sensitive time. Israel is bracing for potential Iranian retaliation after a blast in Tehran killed Hamas’ leader  an attack blamed on Israel. And a new round of cease-fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas is set to begin later this week. On Monday, the Israeli media reported that Defense Minister Yoav Gallant condemned Netanyahu’s “nonsense about ‘total victory’” a phrase the prime minister has frequently repeated during the 10-month-old war in Gaza. The war, which began with a Hamas-led Oct. 7 attack on Israel that killed 1,200 people and left about 250 hostage in Gaza, has killed more than 39,000 Palestinians. Netanyahu has frequently been criticized, including by members of his own government, for lacking clear strategic aims, a post-war plan for Gaza, or even a specific definition of what “total victory” would look like. Gallant's comments were apparently made during a closed-door hearing before an Israeli parliamentary committee and leaked to the media. Netanyahu struck back, saying Gallant should have criticized Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar instead. “When Gallant adopts the anti-Israel narrative, he harms the chances of reaching a hostage release deal,” the Prime Minister’s Office said in a statement. Gallant attempted to ease tensions by responding that his priority was to "protect the citizens of Israel and to harm our enemies.” Gallant, who is a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party, raised the prime minister's ire last year by publicly opposing his controversial push for changes to Israel's judiciary. When Netanyahu attempted to fire Gallant, mass protests erupted, with hundreds of thousands of Israelis taking to the streets in the middle of the night. An Israeli official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak with the media said that Netanyahu is not considering firing Gallant at the current time. Gallant is one of the few moderate voices left in Netanyahu’s government following the departure of centrist Benny Gantz, who left the unity coalition earlier this year.

Netanyahu's office slams Ben-Gvir for breaking Temple Mount status quo
TOVAH LAZAROFF, MATHILDA HELLER/Jerusalem Post/August 13/2024
Ben-Gvir attempted to assert that the status quo, under which Jews can visit but not pray on the Temple Mount, no longer exists. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clashed with his far-right coalition partner, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, over who had the right to set policy on Jerusalem’s Temple Mount, known to Muslims as Haram al-Sharif. Ben-Gvir attempted to assert that the status quo, which has governed the site since 1967, under which Jews can visit but not pray there, no longer exists. “Our policy is to allow prayer” on the Temple Mount, Ben-Gvir said as he made a visit to the Al-Aqsa Mouse compound at that religious site, which is the holiest in Judaism and the third holiest in Islam. Ben-Gvir was joined by the Minister for the Negev and the Galilee Yitzhak Wasserlauf [Otzma Yehudit). He linked his declaration of a policy change to the ongoing negotiations for a hostage agreement, which he has opposed and views as dangerous, preferring instead to solve the issue through a complete IDF victory over the terror group in Gaza. “We have to win in this war. We have to win; We shouldn’t be going to a summit in Doha or Cairo. But to win and to bring [Hamas] to its knees,” he stated in a video filmed as he walked across the compound. To underscore his point, both he and Wasserlauf prayed there for the return of the hostages, the well-being of the soldiers, and victory in the war. He made his visit on Tisha B’Av, the day in which Jews annually fast and mourn for the description of the Temple that once stood on that site over 2,000 years ago. The visit took place 48 hours before the US was set to hold critical negotiations for a deal in Doha, along with the representatives of the main mediator countries for the deal Qatar and Egypt.
Ben-Gvir: I am the political echelon
Ben-Gvir had last month, similarly, announced that he had the ability as the Minister in charge of domestic security, including for that site, to set the policy held there. His visit to the Temple Mount on Tuesday has the potential to damage the talks as well as spark a political crisis and create an additional international diplomatic crisis for Israel. The Prime Minister’s office sent out a harsh message asserting that the status quo on the Temple Mount had not changed and that the morning’s event at the site “was an exemption to the status quo.”
Disagreements over praying on the site
It also clarified that policy decisions regarding the site were under the sole purview of the government and the Prime Minister. “Policymaking on the Temple Mount is directly subordinated to the government and its leader,” the Prime Minister’s Office said. “There is no private policy of any minister – not the National Security Minister or any other minister – on the Temple Mount. Thus it has been under all governments of Israel,” it stated. “Israel's policy on the Temple Mount has not changed; this is how it has been and this is how it will be," the PMO stressed. Ben Gvir’s office told Netanyahu he was wrong and that as National Security Minister he could set policy on the Temple Mount and had determined that Jews could pray there. "The policy of the National Security Minister is to allow freedom of worship for Jews everywhere, including the Temple Mount, and Jews will continue to do so in the future as well,” Ben Gvir stated. “The Temple Mount is a sovereign area in the capital of the State of Israel. There is no law that allows racial discrimination against Jews on the Temple Mount, or anywhere else in Israel,” he stressed. Last month Ben-Gvir had said, "I am the political echelon and the political echelon allows Jewish prayer on the Temple Mount." Opposition leader MK Yair Lapid [Yesh Atid] expressed disapproval, saying on X "Ben-Gvir's campaign on the Temple Mount, in complete opposition to the position of the security forces, during a war, endangers the lives of Israeli citizens and the lives of our soldiers and policemen. "The group of irresponsible extremists in the government is trying hard to drag Israel into an all-out regional war. These people cannot run the country." Religious Affairs Minister Michael Malchieli [Shas] said "For generations, the leaders and chief rabbis of Israel have stressed the importance of the ban on going to the Temple Mount. In addition to having broken the ban, these actions serve as an unnecessary provocation in the eyes of the world." MK Moshe Gafni [United Torah Judsiam] added that "the damage [Ben-Gvir] is causing to the Jewish people is too great to bear. He is causing gratuitous hatred on the day of the destruction of the Temple." The Hostage Families Forum released a statement saying that Ben-Gvir has "repeatedly thwarted a deal to return the hostages, and endangers them with his actions and words.”Nabil Abu Rudeineh, who is the spokesperson for Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, called on the United States to “intervene” and “stop these provocations,” according to a statement on the WAFA, the Palestine News & Information Agency.
Eve Young and Eliav Breuer contributed to this report.

Iranian officials: Only Gaza ceasefire can delay Iran's attack on Israel
Reuters/August 13/2024
Iran, along with allies such as Hezbollah, said it would launch a direct attack if the Gaza talks fail or it perceives Israel is dragging out negotiations.
Only a ceasefire deal in Gaza stemming from hoped-for talks this week would hold Iran back from direct retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its soil, three senior Iranian officials said.
Iran has vowed a severe response to Haniyeh's killing, which took place as he visited Tehran late last month and which it blamed on Israel. Israel has neither confirmed or denied its involvement. The US Navy has deployed warships and a submarine to the Middle East to bolster Israeli defenses.
One of the sources, a senior Iranian security official, said Iran, along with allies such as Hezbollah, would launch a direct attack if the Gaza talks fail or it perceives Israel is dragging out negotiations. The sources did not say how long Iran would allow for talks to progress before responding. With an increased risk of a broader Middle East war after the killings of Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, Iran has been involved in intense dialog with Western countries and the United States in recent days on ways to calibrate retaliation, said the sources, who all spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter. In comments published on Tuesday, the US ambassador to Turkey confirmed Washington was asking allies to help convince Iran to de-escalate tensions. Three regional government sources described conversations with Tehran to avoid escalation ahead of the Gaza ceasefire talks, which will begin on Thursday in either Egypt or Qatar. "We hope our response will be timed and executed in a way that does not harm a potential ceasefire," Iran's mission to the UN said on Friday in a statement. Iran's foreign ministry on Tuesday said calls to exercise restraint "contradict principles of international law."Iran's foreign ministry and its Revolutionary Guards Corps did not immediately respond to questions for this story. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office and the US State Department did not respond to questions. "Something could happen as soon as this week by Iran and its proxies... That is a US assessment as well as an Israel assessment," White House spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Monday. "If something does happen this week, the timing of it could certainly well have an impact on these talks we want to do on Thursday," he added. At the weekend, Hamas cast doubt on whether talks would go ahead. Israel and Hamas have held several rounds of talks in recent months without agreeing a final ceasefire.
Israel awaiting Iranian response
In Israel, many observers believe a response is imminent after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran would "harshly punish" Israel for the strike in Tehran. Iran's regional policy is set by the elite Revolutionary Guards, who answer only to Khamenei, the country's top authority. Iran's relatively moderate new president Masoud Pezeshkian has repeatedly reaffirmed Iran's anti-Israel stance and its support for resistance movements across the region since taking office last month. Meir Litvak, a senior researcher at Tel Aviv University's Alliance Center for Iranian Studies, said he thought Iran would put its needs before helping its ally Hamas but that Iran also wanted to avoid a full-scale war. "The Iranians never subordinated their strategy and policies to the needs of their proxies or protégées,” Litva said. “An attack is likely and almost inevitable but I don't know the scale and the timing.” Iran-based analyst Saeed Laylaz said the Islamic Republic's leaders were now keen to work towards a ceasefire in Gaza, "to obtain incentives, avoid an all-out war and strengthen its position in the region."Laylaz said Iran had not previously been involved in the Gaza peace process but was now ready to play "a key role."
Iran, two of the sources said, was considering sending a representative to the ceasefire talks, in what would be a first since the war started in Gaza. The representative would not directly attend the meetings but would engage in behind-the-scenes discussions "to maintain a line of diplomatic communication" with the United States while negotiations proceed. Officials in Washington, Qatar and Egypt did not immediately respond to questions about whether Iran would play an indirect role in talks. Two senior sources close to Lebanon's Hezbollah said Tehran would give the negotiations a chance but would not give up its intentions to retaliate. A ceasefire in Gaza would give Iran cover for a smaller "symbolic" response, one of the sources said. Israel launched its assault on Gaza after Hamas fighters stormed into southern Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and capturing more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. Since then, nearly 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in the Israeli offensive in Gaza, according to the health ministry.
April missiles
Iran has not publicly indicated what would be the target of an eventual response to the Haniyeh assassination. On April 13, two weeks after two Iranian generals were killed in a strike on Tehran's embassy in Syria, Iran unleashed a barrage of hundreds of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles towards Israel, damaging two airbases. Almost all of the weapons were shot down before they reached their targets. "Iran wants its response to be much more effective than the April 13 attack," said Farzin Nadimi, senior fellow with the Washington Institute for Near East policy."Nadimi said such a response would require "a lot of preparation and coordination," especially if it involved Iran's network of allied armed groups opposing Israel and the United States across the Middle East, with Hezbollah the senior member of the so-called "Axis of Resistance," that along with Iraqi militias and Yemen's Houthis have harried Israel since Oct. 7. Two of the Iranian sources said Iran would support Hezbollah and other allies if they launched their own responses to the killing of Haniyeh and Hezbollah's top military commander, Fuad Shukr, who died in a strike in Beirut the day before Haniyeh was killed in Tehran.
The sources did not specify what form such support could take.

Israeli forces kill Palestinian in West Bank raids, Palestinian medics say
JERUSALE/Reuters/, August 13, 2024
Israeli forces killed an 18-year-old Palestinian man in dawn raids on Tuesday in the West Bank cities of Ramallah and Al-Bireh, Palestinian hospital sources said, as violence in the Israeli occupied territory simmers. The Israeli military said it responded with live fire to suspects who threw rocks at soldiers in Ramallah who were demolishing houses of militants responsible for a deadly shooting attack in January. Violence in the West Bank and East Jerusalem was already on the rise before the war in Gaza erupted, but it has since escalated, with stepped-up Israeli military raids, settler violence and Palestinian street attacks. Israeli forces have killed at least 620 Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem since the start of the Gaza war, according to Palestinian Health Ministry figures. Many have been armed fighters belonging to militant groups but others have been stone-throwing youths or uninvolved civilians. At least 30 Israelis, civilians and soldiers, have been killed by Palestinians in Jerusalem and the West Bank since the Gaza war started, Israeli figures show.

Rocket fired from Gaza falls in sea off Tel Aviv: Israeli army
AFP/August 13, 2024
TEL AVIV: A rocket fired from the war-torn Gaza Strip fell in the sea off Israel’s Tel Aviv on Tuesday, Israel’s army said, as Hamas militants announced their first attack on the city in months. “A short while ago, a projectile that was identified crossing from the Gaza Strip fell in the maritime space in central Israel,” an army statement said, as an AFP journalist reported hearing a boom in the city at the same time. The army added that “simultaneously, an additional projectile that did not cross into Israeli territory was identified.” Hamas armed wing, the Ezzedine Al-Qassam Brigades, said it fired two M90 rockets at Tel Aviv, their first attack on the Israeli commercial hub since May. “Al-Qassam Brigades bombarded the city of Tel Aviv and its suburbs with two M90 missiles in response to the Zionist massacres against civilians and the deliberate displacement of our people,” a statement by the group said. The attack came with Israel on high alert for an attack by Iran and its proxies following the killings of senior figures from Hamas and Hezbollah, the Lebanese armed group.

Israeli strikes on Gaza leave children without parents and parents without children
Wafaa Shurafa And Samy Magdy/DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip (AP)/August 13, 2024
Reem Abu Hayyah, just three months old, was the only member of her family to survive an Israeli airstrike in the Gaza Strip late Monday. A few miles (kilometers) to the north, Mohamed Abuel-Qomasan lost his wife and their twin babies — just four days old — in another strike. More than 10 months into its war with Hamas, Israel's relentless bombardment of the isolated territory has wiped out extended families. It has left parents without children and children without parents, brothers or sisters. And some of the sole survivors are so young they will have no memory of those they lost. The Israeli strike late Monday destroyed a home near the southern city of Khan Younis, killing 10 people. The dead included Abu Hayyah's parents and five siblings, ranging in age from 5 to 12, as well as the parents of three other children. All four children were wounded in the strike. There is no one left except this baby,” said her aunt, Soad Abu Hayyah. “Since this morning, we have been trying to feed her formula, but she does not accept it, because she is used to her mother’s milk.” The strike that killed Abuel-Qomasan's wife and newborns — a boy, Asser, and a girl, Ayssel — also killed the twins' maternal grandmother. As he sat in a hospital, stunned into near-silence by the loss, he held up the twins' birth certificates.
His wife, Joumana Arafa, a pharmacist, had given birth by Cesarean section four days ago and announced the twins' arrival on Facebook. On Tuesday, he had gone to register the births at a local government office. While he was there, neighbors called to say the home where he was sheltering, near the central city of Deir al-Balah, had been bombed. “I don’t know what happened,” he said. "I am told it was a shell that hit the house.”The Israeli military did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the strikes. The Health Ministry in Gaza said 115 newborns have been killed in the territory since the war began. The military says it tries to avoid harming Palestinian civilians and blames their deaths on Hamas because the militants operate in dense residential areas, sometimes sheltering in and launching attacks from homes, schools, mosques and other civilian buildings. But the army rarely comments on individual strikes, which often kill women and children. Gaza's Health Ministry says nearly 40,000 Palestinians have been killed since the start of the war, without saying how many were fighters. Hamas-led militants killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducted around 250 in the Oct. 7 attack into southern Israel that ignited the war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has often said that “they killed parents in front of their children and children in front of their parents" to illustrate the brutality of the attack, most recently in his address to the U.S. Congress last month. Israel's offensive has left thousands of orphans — so many that local doctors employ an acronym when registering them: WCNSF, or “wounded child, no surviving family.” The United Nations estimated in February that some 17,000 children in Gaza are now unaccompanied, and the number is likely to have grown since.
The Abu Hayyah family was sheltering in an area that Israel had ordered people to evacuate from in recent days. It was one of several such orders that have led hundreds of thousands to seek shelter in an Israeli-declared humanitarian zone consisting of squalid, crowded tent camps along the coast. The vast majority of Gaza's population has fled their homes, often multiple times. The coastal strip, which is just 25 miles (40 kilometers) long by about 7 miles (11 kilometers) wide, has been completely sealed off by Israeli forces since May. Around 84% of Gaza's territory has been placed under evacuation orders by the Israeli military, according to the United Nations. Many families have ignored the evacuation orders because they say nowhere feels safe, or because they are unable to make the arduous journey on foot, or because they fear they will never be able to return to their homes, even after the war. Abuel-Qomasan and his wife had heeded orders to evacuate Gaza City in the opening weeks of the war. They sought shelter in central Gaza, as the army had instructed.

Netanyahu denies claims he changed conditions of hostage deal negotiations
Tovah Lazaroff/Jerusalem Post/August 13/2024
Some of Netanyahu's critics feel that he is prioritizing the stability of his coalition government above the release of the hostages. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not add any new conditions to the hostage deal, his office said as the United States, Qatar, and Egypt were set to hold a new round of hostage talks on Thursday. The claim that Netanyahu “added new demands to the May 27 outline is false,” the Prime Minister’s Office stated, as he referenced the three-phase proposal US President Joe Biden unveiled on May 31. It contrasted the initial Israeli proposal of May 27, which was the basis of that document, with the clarifications Israel had set forward on July 27. “The July 27 draft does not include new conditions and does not contradict the May 27 outline. Hamas is the one who demanded 29 changes - something that the prime minister opposed,” the Prime Minister’s Office stated.It focused on three issues raised by Netanyahu himself and heavily debated in the media, including the New York Times piece. The first was Israel’s refusal to allow armed terrorists to return to northern Gaza, which Netanyahu has set as one of his red lines for the deal. Initially, the language around the issue stated that armed terrorists should not be allowed to return, but in July it said that there would need to be a screening process, according to the NYT. The PMO said, “The July 27th draft document refers to the need to establish an agreed verification mechanism in order to ensure that only unarmed civilians return to the northern Gaza Strip (a proposal put forward by the United States) - in accordance with the proposal in the May 27th outline.” PMO counters claims about hostage negotiations The Prime Minister’s Office secondly rejected the claim that it was adding in new conditions regarding the release of hostages in the first phase of the deal. Israeli officials have been blunt about their desire to see the maximal number of live hostages returned during that phase, in which humanitarian captives are set to be released. These are all women, elderly, and ill hostages.
“In the July 27 draft, it was stated that all living hostages in the relevant category should be released, in accordance with the May 27 outline, which stated that a certain number of abductees - alive or dead - would be released,” the Prime Minister’s Office stated. It also focused on the demand that Palestinian terrorists freed from Israeli jails as part of the deal would be exiled from the West Bank and Gaza and that Israel would have veto power over some of the names on the list. “In the July 27 draft, no new conditions were specified. On the contrary - in the May 27 outline it was stated that Israel would have the right of veto over a certain number of released terrorists and that Israel would be able to deport at least a certain number of terrorists,” the Prime Minister’s Office stated.  “The July 27 draft includes essential clarifications for the purpose of implementing what is written in the May 27 outline,” it stated.

Iran president adviser says anti-Israel response to be 'intelligence-based'
Naharnet/August 13/2024
An adviser to Iran’s president has told The Washington Post that Iran’s anticipated response against Israel will be “intelligence-based” and not through missiles and drones. Aliasghar Shafieian, campaign media adviser to newly elected Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, suggested to The Washington Post that Tehran’s retaliation was unlikely to be a repeat of April’s hours-long volley. The killing of Haniyeh “was an intelligence-based mission,” he said, and “Iran’s response will be of a similar nature and at a similar level.” Iran will respond after it takes time for “contemplation and patience,” Shafieian said. He acknowledged that the fallout from Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran is “a significant challenge” for Pezeshkian but said the government was capable of “managing the situation.”“Maybe 40 years ago, some of Iran’s actions were out of excitement and emotional,” he said. Now, he added, the country will respond in a “mature” way. A response from Iranian intelligence could take the form of attacks on soft Israeli targets overseas, such as embassies, said Marc Polymeropoulos, a former CIA senior operations officer who served in counterterrorism roles in the Middle East.
“I don’t believe the Iranians have the reach to hit Israeli security officials, for example, on Israeli soil,” he said. “The Iranians and their allies are treading cautiously,” said a Lebanese individual with close ties to Lebanon’s Hezbollah who has been briefed on communications with Tehran. A similar account was provided by a member of parliament in Iraq who is closely linked with Iranian-backed militias in the country: "We were told [by Iran] that it’s going to be a limited response," he said, because Tehran "doesn’t want to expand the war." In recent meetings, according to the Lebanese individual with ties to Hezbollah, Iran has expressed concern that Israel and the United States could strike its nuclear program, using a full-scale conflict as a pretext for “essentially neutralizing Iran’s nuclear deterrence.”

Iran Dismisses European Calls for Restraint
London: Asharq Al Awsat/August 13/2024
Iran's foreign ministry said on Tuesday that calls for restraint regarding Israel from France, Germany and Britain "lack political logic and contradict principles of international law.”The three European countries issued a statement on Monday calling on Iran and its allies to refrain from attacks against Israel following the killing of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last month. The statement was signed by French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Tehran and its allies Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah have accused Israel of carrying out the assassination. The Israeli government has made no claim of responsibility. "Without any objection to the crimes of the Zionist regime (Israel), the E3 statement impudently requires Iran not to respond to a violation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity," Kanaani said. Kanaani said Tehran is determined to deter Israel and called on Paris, Berlin and London to "once and for all stand up against the war in Gaza and the warmongering of Israel.”Starmer held a call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Monday, asking him to refrain from attacking Israel and saying that war was not in anyone's interest, his office said. Starmer told Pezeshkian he was deeply concerned by the situation in the Middle East and called on all parties to de-escalate to avoid further regional confrontation. Scholz also spoke by phone Monday with Pezeshkian and “expressed his great concern about the danger of a regional conflagration in the Middle East.”The German government said Scholz made clear that “the spiral of violence in the Middle East must now be broken.”

White House: Iran Could Make 'Significant' Attack on Israel this Week
Asharq Al Awsat/August 13/2024
Iran could launch a "significant" attack on Israel as soon as this week, the White House said Monday, as US President Joe Biden discussed the crisis with European leaders. "We have to be prepared for what could be a significant set of attacks," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters. "We share the same concerns and expectations that our Israeli counterparts have with respect to potential timing here -- could be this week," added Kirby, AFP reported. Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah group have vowed to avenge last month's killings of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr. Biden called the leaders of France, Germany, Italy and Britain on Monday to discuss the growing tensions, the White House added. The call was "largely for all the leaders to repeat what they have said before in terms of reaffirming Israel's defense" and to "send a strong message that we don't want to see any rise in violence, any attacks by Iran or its proxies." The leaders also called for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, with difficult talks set for Thursday on halting the conflict that started when the Palestinian group attacked Israel on October 7. The call came shortly after Biden returned to the Oval Office after a long weekend at his beach house in Delaware.

Suspected Attacks by Yemen's Houthis Target Shipping in Red Sea

Asharq Al Awsat/August 13/2024
Suspected attacks by Yemen's Houthi militias targeted shipping in the Red Sea on Tuesday, officials said, the latest in their campaign of assaults over the Israel-Hamas war. The first attack happened around 115 kilometers south of the port of Hodeidah, the British military's United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said. That attack saw an explosive detonate near the ship, then a small vessel “acting suspiciously” and flashing a light near the ship came close, followed by a second blast, the UKMTO said. "The vessel and crew are reported safe,” the UKMTO said. The private security firm Ambrey similarly reported the attack, saying the ship saw “two ‘close-proximity’ explosions.”The second attack happened hours later Tuesday some 180 kilometers northwest of Hodeidah, with an explosion similarly sighted off from a ship, the UKMTO said. It wasn't immediately clear if it was the same ship being targeted. The Houthis have targeted more than 70 vessels with missiles and drones in a campaign that has killed four sailors since the start of the war in Gaza in October. They have seized one vessel and sunk two in the time since. Other missiles and drones have been either intercepted by a US-led coalition in the Red Sea or splashed down before reaching their targets.

Yemen’s Houthis seized UN rights office in Sanaa, UN official says
Samy Magdy/The Associated Press/August 13, 2024
Yemen’s Houthi rebels stormed the headquarters of the United Nations’ Human Rights Office in the capital, Sanaa, seizing documents, furniture and vehicles, a senior U.N. official said Tuesday. The seizure was the latest move in a crackdown by the Houthis on people working with the U.N., aid agencies and foreign embassies. The crackdown comes as the Iranian-backed rebels have been targeting shipping throughout the Red Sea corridor over the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip. The rebels took over the U.N. Human Rights Office’s premises in Sanaa on Aug. 3, after forcing U.N. Yemeni workers to hand over belongings, including documents, furniture and vehicles, U.N. Human Rights Chief Volker Türk said in a statement. “Ansar Allah forces must leave the premises and return all assets and belongings immediately,” Türk said, using the official name of the Houthis. A spokesman for the Houthis didn’t return phone calls and messages requesting comment. The U.N.’s Human Rights Office said it had suspended the office’s operations in Sanaa and other Yemeni areas controlled by the Houthis following the June crackdown campaign. But it still operates in the parts of Yemen controlled by the internationally recognized government. In June, the Houthis detained more than 60 people working with the U.N. and other NGOs, according to the U.N. Human Rights Office. Among the detainees were six workers with the Human Rights Office, who joined two of their colleagues detained by the Houthis in November 2021 and August 2023, it said. Days after the arrest campaign, the rebels said they had arrested members of what they called an “American-Israeli spy network.”The Houthis issued what they purported to be videotaped confessions by 10 Yemenis, several of whom said they were recruited by the U.S. Embassy in Yemen. The U.N. Human Rights Office said one of its staffers who was detained earlier appeared in a video in which he was forced to confess to allegations, including of espionage, the office said. The Houthis’ claims could not be independently verified. The Houthis have been engaged in a civil war with Yemen’s internationally recognized government, backed by a Saudi-led coalition, since 2014, when they took control of Sanaa and most of the north. The war in Yemen has killed more than 150,000 people, including fighters and civilians, and created one of the world’s worst humanitarian disasters, killing tens of thousands more. The rebels have imprisoned thousands of people during the war. And in recent months they intensified their crackdown on dissent at home, including recently sentencing 44 people to death.

Russia says it thwarted a Ukrainian charge to expand its incursion. Kyiv says it won't occupy land
Illia Novikov And Barry Hatton/KYIV, Ukraine (AP)/August 13, 2024
Russia said Tuesday that its forces checked an effort by Ukrainian troops to expand a stunning weeklong incursion into the Kursk region, as a Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman said Kyiv has no intention of occupying Russian territory. Russian army units, including fresh reserves, aircraft, drone teams and artillery forces, stopped Ukrainian armored mobile groups from moving deeper into Russia near the Kursk settlements of Obshchy Kolodez, Snagost, Kauchuk and Alexeyevsky, a Russian Defense Ministry statement said. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi said the cross-border operation was aimed at protecting Ukrainian land from long-range strikes launched from Kursk. “Ukraine is not interested in taking the territory of the Kursk region, but we want to protect the lives of our people,” Tykhyi was quoted as saying by local media. He said Russia had launched more than 2,000 strikes from the Kursk region in recent months using anti-aircraft missiles, artillery, mortars, drones, 255 glide bombs and more than 100 missiles.
"The purpose of this operation is to preserve the lives of our children, to protect the territory of Ukraine from Russian strikes,” he said. The commander of the Ukrainian military, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said in a video posted Tuesday to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Telegram channel that Ukraine now controls 74 settlements in the Kursk region. Ukrainian troops have continued to advance, gaining control over 40 square kilometers (15 square miles) of territory in the past 24 hours, Syrskyi said. “Fights are ongoing along the entire front line. The situation, despite the high intensity of combat, is under control,” he added.
Ukraine’s Western partners have said the country has the right to defend itself, including by attacking across the border. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Tuesday that he backed the Ukrainian operation, though he said Kyiv officials did not consult him about it beforehand. Russian military actions in Ukraine bear "the hallmarks of genocide, inhumane crimes, and Ukraine has every right to wage war in such a way as to paralyze Russia in its aggressive intentions as effectively as possible,” Tusk said. Kremlin forces intensified their attacks in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine’s General Staff said Tuesday that over the previous 24 hours, Russian troops launched 52 assaults in the area of Pokrovsk, a town in Ukraine’s Donetsk region that is close to the front line. That's roughly double the number of daily attacks there a week ago.
Ukraine's undermanned army has struggled to hold back the bigger, better-equipped Russian forces in Donetsk. The Ukrainian military claims that its charge onto Russian soil that began Aug. 6 has already encompassed about 1,000 square kilometers (386 square miles) of Russian territory. The goals of the swift advance into the Kursk region have been a closely guarded military secret. Analysts say a catalyst may also have been Ukraine’s desire to ease pressure on its front line by attempting to draw the Kremlin’s forces into defending Kursk and other border areas. If so, the increased pressure around Pokrovsk suggests Moscow did not take the bait.
Ukraine’s ambitious operation — the largest attack on Russia since World War II — has rattled the Kremlin. It compelled Russian President Vladimir Putin to convene a meeting Monday with his top defense officials. Apparently, Ukraine assembled thousands of troops — some Western analysts estimate up to 12,000 — on the border in recent weeks without Russia noticing or acting. About 121,000 people have been evacuated from Kursk or have fled the areas affected by fighting on their own, Russian officials say. The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, said it has seen geolocated footage indicating that Ukrainian forces advanced as much as 24 kilometers (15 miles) from the border. The Russian Defense Ministry appeared to support that claim when it said Tuesday it had also blocked an attack by the units of Ukraine's 82nd Air Assault Brigade toward Maryinka, which is about that distance from Ukraine. Russian state television on Tuesday showed residents from evacuated areas lining up in buildings and on the street to receive food and water. Volunteers were pictured distributing bags of aid, while officials from the country’s Ministry of Emergency Situations helped people, including children and older people, off buses. “There is no light, no connection, no water. There is nothing. It’s as if everyone has flown to another planet, and you are left alone. And the birds stopped singing,” an older man called Mikhail told Russian state television. "Helicopters and planes fly over the yard and shells were flying. What could we do? We left everything behind.”A motive behind Ukraine’s bold dive into Russia was to stir up unrest, according to Putin, but he said that effort would fail. The successful border breach also was surprising because Ukraine has been short of manpower at the front as it waits for new brigades to complete training. Dara Massicot, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment, said the Ukrainian breakthrough was a smart move because it exploited gaps between various Russian commands in Kursk: border guards, Ministry of Defense forces and Chechen units that have been fighting on Russia's side in the war.
Russian command and control is fractured in Kursk, Massicot said on X late Monday. The Ukrainian Army's General Staff announced Tuesday that it was establishing a 20-kilometer (12-mile) restricted-access zone along Russian-Ukrainian border in the northeastern Sumy region, which borders Kursk. The measures were introduced because of the increasing intensity of combat in the area and the rising presence of Russian reconnaissance and sabotage units there, a statement said.

Projectiles did not impact US base in Syria, US officials say
Reuters/August 13, 2024
Projectiles launched in the direction of a U.S. airbase in a gas field in Syria's Deir al-Zor province did not hit the facility, two U.S. officials said on Tuesday. Earlier, a security source told Reuters that Iran-backed militia targeted the base with six shells, all of which fell in the vicinity of the U.S. base, adding that the U.S.-led coalition responded to the attack with artillery. The U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the projectiles did not hit the base and there were no injuries. The official cited initial reports that can change. Lebanese pro-Iranian television channel Al Mayadeen said U.S. warplanes were flying intensely in the skies of Deir al-Zor countryside following the attack. ConocoPhillips said it was aware of reports of damage to a U.S. and coalition base in eastern Syria bearing the name Conoco, but its assets in Syria were divested in the early 2000s. On Tuesday, the Pentagon said eight U.S. service members were injured in a drone attack on a base in Syria last week.

The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on August 13-14/2024
Time for US Jews to embrace the Republican Party - opinion
Michael Freund/Jerusalem Post/August 13/2024
The time for change is long overdue.
For American Jews still faithful to the Democratic Party, the writing is on the wall, and it has increasingly begun to look like antisemitic graffiti. For decades, a majority of US Jews have loyally cast their ballots for the Democrats, irrespective of how much the party has been waffling on issues close to their hearts.
The time for change is long overdue.
For their own sake and for the sake of America and for Israel, American Jews need to embrace the Republican Party and make it their new political home.
The transformation that the Democratic Party has undergone was on full display a week ago when Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who, as of this writing, is considered a possible running mate for Kamala Harris, had to apologize for a 1993 college essay he penned that some deemed to be “too pro-Israel,” whatever that means. And just what was it that Shapiro wrote that raised the ire of so many far-Left Democrats? In his paper, Shapiro insisted that “peace is not possible” in the Middle East due to the Palestinian leadership and that the Palestinians were “too battle-minded to be able to establish a peaceful homeland of their own. In other words, he told the truth, and it is as true today as it was decades ago. Incredibly, after the Philadelphia Inquirer reported on Shapiro’s essay, he quickly became the target of a torrent of harsh vitriol from many of his fellow Democrats who were incensed by the support he expressed for the Jewish state. The response was so brutal that even some Democrats were shocked by the treatment meted out to Shapiro and did not hesitate to label it antisemitic.
On Monday, in a CNN interview, Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.) denounced “the overly online Left who are attacking Josh Shapiro’s pro-Israel positions in a different way than they are attacking non-Jewish veep contenders’ positions,” adding that “there’s a strong undercurrent of antisemitism.”“Holding him to a different standard because of his religion,” Auchincloss said, “simply isn’t who we are as a Democratic Party.” Apparently, that is precisely who they are.
On July 26, in a post on X, Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) noted that while “every potential nominee is pro-Israel,” there is “only one, Josh Shapiro, who has been singled out by a far-Left smear campaign calling him ‘Genocide Josh.’ The reason he is treated differently from the rest? Antisemitism.”
The state of the Democratic Party and the fact that it has been taken over by radical forces were summed up best by the satirical site Babylon Bee, which posted a headline on August 6 declaring, “Democrats worried choosing Jewish vice president may cost them the all-important ‘Death to America’ vote.”
Democrats becoming anti-Israel
THE DEMOCRATIC slide toward anti-Israel hostility has not gone unnoticed by many American Jews, and a growing number are already making the switch.
As the Algemeiner Journal reported on August 1, a survey conducted by pollster Richard Baris found that 45.9% of American Jews now back former president Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris. That is the highest percentage of Jewish support for a Republican presidential candidate since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956. It marks a jump of 15% in Jewish backing for Trump since 2020, when he pulled in 30% in the presidential election.
For anyone who has been paying attention, this should not come as much of a surprise in light of how Harris has treated Israel. Just last month, when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was invited to address both houses of Congress, Harris demonstrably refused to preside over the session, citing the need to attend a sorority convention. In an interview with The Nation, a far-Left paper, Harris expressed empathy for student protesters who took over college campuses, harassed Jewish students, and disrupted classes.
“They are showing exactly what the human emotion should be, as a response to Gaza,” she said. Earlier this year, on March 3, Harris became the first Biden administration official to publicly call for an “immediate ceasefire” in Gaza. She chose to make the demand during her speech commemorating the anniversary of “Bloody Sunday” in Selma, Alabama, when police beat civil rights activists in 1965, and then she went on to peddle the lie that Gaza was on the verge of famine.
This pattern of behavior by Harris stretches back years. In September 2021, when she was accosted by a student at George Mason University who accused Israel of committing “ethnic genocide” against Palestinians, the vice president nodded along and then offered the student encouragement, telling her, “And again, this is about the fact that your voice, your perspective, your experience, your truth cannot be suppressed, and it must be heard.” Does anyone who supports Israel honestly think that Harris’s track record is comforting or encouraging?
For all his faults, and they were numerous, President Joe Biden at least identified as a Zionist. But Kamala Harris? To borrow a phrase she has used far too often, Harris is “unburdened by what has been.” And that includes support for Israel.
The sad fact is that the Democratic Party of 2024 is no longer the same party it once was. It has drifted further and further into the hands of its increasingly vocal and radical progressive wing. It no longer stands for law and order, a secure southern border, or fiscal responsibility. And it has most assuredly become a party that can no longer be counted on to stand by Israel, America’s closest ally in the Middle East.
Hence, for those American Jews who cherish the Jewish state and want to see a stronger bond between Washington and Jerusalem, the choice at the ballot box in November is clear. Only by voting Republican and keeping Kamala Harris out of the White House can the US-Israel relationship continue to deepen and blossom.
*The writer served as deputy communications director under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Off grid: How does Yahya Sinwar lead Hamas from underground? - analysis
Seth J. nFrantzman/Jerusalem Post/August 13/2024
“Sinwar is said to no longer trust electronic communications, fearing that the Israeli army will discover his location and kill him,” the report said.
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is isolated in Gaza but still communicating with Hamas fighters and Hamas leadership in other parts of the Middle East. This must be true in order for Sinwar to have been elected as the new “political” leader of Hamas, replacing Ismail Haniyeh. New Arabic media articles have focused on this question. An article at Asharq al-Awsat and also at Al-Ain media have focused on the issue of Sinwar’s communications. “Many are wondering how Yahya Sinwar communicates with his comrades underground,” Al-Ain media noted. “Sinwar is said to no longer trust electronic communications, fearing that the Israeli army will discover his location and kill him,” the report said.
The fact that Sinwar is wary of his communications being intercepted would not make him the first terrorist leader or cartel leader to be wary of this threat to his existence. Mafia leaders in the United States in the 1970s and 1980s were wary of using phones, for instance. Sinwar is merely using the kind of security and tradecraft that would be expected of a man in his position. On the one hand, Sinwar needs to be wary of being found and eliminated. On the other, he doesn’t want Hamas to fall into a leadership vacuum and chaos in Gaza. Sinwar may be on the run, but he also knows Gaza very well. He grew up in Khan Yunis and knows the city and its underground tunnels. He has managed to evade Israel for years. In addition, he has also grown privileged in his role because he was released by Israel in 2011, and he was able to plan the October 7 attack largely in the open.
Under Sinwar, Hamas received huge sums of cash from abroad, including support from Qatar. Therefore, Sinwar is not only used to extreme security to guarantee his continued freedom, but he also likely senses that he has some privileges because of his position. Recent reports have painted a picture of Sinwar on the run, leaving rooms in tunnels with the coffee still hot, as he has been pursued. This may be accurate, but it also shows that he continues to find a way to work behind the scenes to control Hamas. Reports indicate that he uses couriers to pass messages. The fact that Hamas has elevated him now to its “political” leader shows that there is no difference between the “military” and “political” wings of Hamas and that the mastermind of the October 7 massacre is firmly in control.
Sinwar's involvement in ceasefire negotiations
Another piece of evidence for him being in complete control is the fact that the hostage talks have dragged on. Hamas must be able to communicate with Sinwar or it couldn’t continue the talks for 10 months. The talks are largely just used by Doha to keep Hamas in power so that it can remain after the Gaza war is over. In order for that to happen, there has to be at least a semblance that Sinwar is communicating a “yes” or “no” to the talks.
Hamas under Sinwar has more international support than it did in the past. It has backing from Russia, Turkey, China, Iran, and other countries. Clearly, an organization without a leader could not achieve that. Sinwar therefore not only communicates with his remaining brigade commanders, but somehow also communicates with Hamas abroad. Hamas “relies on special communication protocols that they use primarily to communicate with parties abroad,” Asharq Al-Awsat said.
“This is due, according to the report, to the almost permanent interruption of telephone and internet lines in Gaza, and is also done in an attempt to avoid being tracked by Israeli intelligence,” Al-Ain noted. “According to the source, Hamas leaders relied at the beginning of the war on the movement's communications lines, which Hamas military engineers had developed as early as 2009, and began to develop intermittently, using mainly foreign technology.” Furthermore the article notes that “unnamed sources [are] saying that Hamas's military wing had installed underground telephone centers connected to old communication lines at certain points above ground, noting that these sites were periodically inspected in an attempt to prevent infiltration."
In the past, Israel has found that Hamas even had a computer and technology site underneath an UNRWA headquarters. It is worth considering the fact that many international NGOs and other international organizations have in the past been able to bring various types of technology, data centers and communications equipment into Gaza. It’s plausible to conclude that Sinwar and Hamas may have benefited from this by diverting some of this technology for their own use or exploiting various sites in Gaza used by international organizations. Hamas has often hidden in schools, shelters, and even hospitals, for instance. “Hamas appears to have maintained this method of communication even at the start of the ongoing war, despite the Israeli military's focus on destroying part of these communications systems, along with underground tunnels that it says contain important communications infrastructure,” Al-Ain noted. Ceasefire talks are being held inside the Gaza Strip, "using internal communications systems, and their outputs are being transmitted abroad by various means, including via the Internet linked to electronic chips, and through the use of encrypted software purchased from abroad,” the report added. Since the beginning of the war on October 7, Israel has been trying to track down Sinwar, but has not succeeded, the report concluded. “The prevailing belief in Israel is that Sinwar does not use mobile phones at all because they are easily monitored by Israeli intelligence and even Western intelligence that monitors the Gaza Strip.” Al-Ain’s article goes on to note that “According to Israeli estimates, Sinwar communicates with a limited number of confidants through an intermittent chain, such that if one of the members of the chain is reached, it will not be possible to reach the Hamas leader himself.”
Sinwar is doing what other terror leaders in the past did. Osama Bin Laden, for instance, lived in a villa near a Pakistani military academy in Abbotabad for many years. He used one courier during that time. The US found Bin Laden by tracing the courier after many years of failed efforts to find him.

Pope Francis Finally Condemns Olympics’ Anti-Christian Mockery (to Please Muslims)
Raymond Ibrahim/The Stream/August 13/2024
Finally, after more than a week, Pope Francis — who is notorious for urging “caution” against any free speech or expression that mocks Islam — on Aug. 3 issued a brief, perfunctory, and rather lukewarm condemnation of the pagan, pedophilic mockery of Christ that regaled the opening ceremony of the summer Olympics.
And lest you think this half-hearted condemnation was motivated by a sincere desire to protect Christianity, it appears that even this comes in response to pleasing Muslim sensibilities.
Background: On July 26, during the opening ceremony of the Olympics in Paris, several men in drag struck poses behind a long table, at the center of which was an overweight woman in a low-cut dress wearing a large silver headdress — reminiscent of the halo behind Jesus’s head in many artistic depictions of the Last Supper.
A Miracle
While many are already aware of these central facts, apparently the mockery was even more depraved than first thought, with apparent elements of pedophilia: “At one point, a testicle of a man wearing short black hotpants was exposed while a little girl stood in front of him, in front of what was supposed to be the table.”
Many Christian groups vocally condemned what was a very obvious act of mockery against Christianity. As part of its damage control, Olympic spokespeople claimed the scene was meant to be a pagan depiction of Dionysus, not the Last Supper, even as “some performers themselves stated in social media posts and in comments to French media that they had, in fact, intended to imitate the Last Supper.”
But as Christians the world over condemned the incident — including many Catholic leaders, such as Bishop Robert Barron, the French Bishops Conference, two Vatican officials, the archbishop of Malta, and many others — Pope Francis was conspicuously silent. For eight days, and while many Catholics, including Vatican officials, were urging him to say something — anything — Francis refused to condemn or even address the blasphemy committed against his (nominal) Lord.
Then a miracle happened. Last Thursday, Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the self-styled neo-Ottoman sultan, picked up the phone, called Francis, and told him to condemn the “ridicule” of moral and religious values at the Olympic opening ceremony.
No Other Way to Read This
As with many biblical figures, Islam has also appropriated Jesus as one of its “prophets,” though this “Islamic Jesus” — “Isa” —has little in common with the biblical Christ: while sinless, born of a virgin, and a miracle-worker, “Isa” is not the Son of God, nor was he crucified, buried, or resurrected.
At any rate, two days after Erdoğan’s call, Francis issued the following tepid statement:
The Holy See is saddened by some scenes of the opening ceremony of the Paris Olympic Games and cannot but join the voices that have been raised in recent days to deplore the offence done to many Christians and believers of other religions [emphasis added].
As no other religion claims Jesus but Islam, Francis’s “offence done to … believers of other religions” is an obvious reference to Muslims. That is, it is further evidence of Erdoğan’s role in getting Francis to move.
Coptic Believers Respond
Perhaps that is why the brief statement is also so weak? As a good dhimmi, Francis did what he needed to do to please his Muslim overlord, but the sappy wording—“the Holy See is saddened”— leaves much to be desired, as does the rest of the statement:
In a prestigious event where the whole world comes together around common values, there should be no allusions that ridicule the religious convictions of many people. Freedom of expression, which is obviously not called into question, finds its limit in respect for others.
At no point in the statement does Francis even manage to clearly define the problem — that the Olympic ceremony mocked the Last Supper — and the only time he mentions the victims of the mockery, he conflates them with “believers of other religions.”
Compare and contrast this with, say, the unequivocal condemnation issued by the Coptic Orthodox Church,
We express our profound dismay and condemnation over the recent portrayal of the Last Supper during the opening ceremony of the 2024 Paris Olympics. This depiction, which featured a parody led by drag performers, has deeply offended Christians worldwide.
The Last Supper was a sacred moment in the life of our Lord Jesus Christ exemplifying His ultimate sacrifice and love for humanity. To see it mocked in such a public and disrespectful manner is not only disheartening but also undermines the spirit of unity, inclusion, solidarity, and respect that the Olympics aim to promote.
We call upon the organizers of the Olympics and all involved parties to offer a sincere apology to the Christian community and to take steps to ensure that such disrespectful actions are not repeated in the future.
We Did Expect a Punch, Actually
Indeed, compare and contrast Francis’s effete statement in “defense” of Christianity with his words when Muslim sensibilities are offended. Nearly a decade ago, when Muslims murdered a dozen people at the Paris-based Charlie Hebdo office because the satirical magazine had mocked the prophet of Islam, Francis, rather than being silent, came out strongly in defense of the Muslims:
“If my good friend Dr. Gasparri says a curse word against my mother, he can expect a punch,” Francis said during a 2015 interview, while pretending to throw a punch at Gasparri, who was standing beside him. “It’s normal,” he added. “You cannot provoke. You cannot insult the faith of others. You cannot make fun of the faith of others.”
Do you think he would offer this rationalization if Christians stormed the Olympic organizers’ offices and killed those involved in the mockery of the Last Supper?
Neither do I.

Hamas 'Politicians' and Terrorists: No Difference Between Them

Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/August 13, 2024
The fact that Sinwar was elected shows that Hamas's political and military branches are the same. It also demonstrates that when it comes to Islamist terrorist organizations, there is no difference between a political and military leader. By electing Sinwar as its "political" leader, Hamas itself is stating that it does not distinguish between a politician and terrorist.
Has anyone ever considered referring to Osama bin Laden and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the heads of Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (ISIS), as the "political leaders" of their respective organizations?
In addition to Haniyeh, Hamas's "political bureau" consists of several figures such as Khalil al-Hayya, Khaled Mashaal, Musa Abu Marzouk, Ghazi Hamad, and Taher a-Nunu who have long been advocating the armed struggle against Israel and glorifying acts of terrorism against Israelis.
"For the BBC, Ismail Haniyeh was 'moderate and pragmatic;' for the rest of us he was a monster," commented British author and journalist Stephen Pollard. He pointed out that Haniyeh had recorded the following message to the Palestinians from his luxurious home in Qatar: "We need the blood of women, children, and the elderly of Gaza...so as to awaken our revolution spirit."
"Haniyeh was indeed 'moderate'. The total number of Jews murdered by Hamas does not come close to six million." — Stephen Pollard, British author, thejc.com, July 31, 2024.
Now that Sinwar has joined Hamas's inner circle of "political" figures, it is reasonable to presume that he too will be dubbed by the Western media as a "moderate" and "pragmatic" Palestinian leader.
What comes next? Will the Biden-Harris administration and other Western governments rush to discuss with the newly elected Palestinian leader and mass murderer the creation of an independent Palestinian state that will be used by the Iranian regime and its terror proxies, including Hamas, to destroy Israel?
The Iran-backed Palestinian terrorist group Hamas has chosen arch-terrorist Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the October 7, 2023, atrocities against thousands of Israelis, as the chairman of its "political bureau." Now that Sinwar has joined Hamas's inner circle of "political" figures, it is reasonable to presume that now he too will be dubbed by Western media "moderate" and "pragmatic." Pictured: Sinwar shakes hands with a masked member of Hamas' Al-Qassam Brigades in Gaza City on December 14, 2022. (Photo by Mohammed Abed/AFP via Getty Images)
The Iran-backed Palestinian terrorist group Hamas has chosen arch-terrorist Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the October 7, 2023, atrocities against thousands of Israelis, as the chairman of its "political bureau." Sinwar, who has been hiding in the Gaza Strip since the Hamas-led attack, will take over from Ismail Haniyeh, the former chairman of the group's "political bureau," who was killed in the Iranian capital of Tehran on July 31.
The fact that Sinwar was elected shows that Hamas's political and military branches are the same. It also demonstrates that when it comes to Islamist terrorist organizations, there is no difference between a political and military leader. By electing Sinwar as its "political" leader, Hamas itself is stating that it does not distinguish between a politician and terrorist.
Has anyone ever considered referring to Osama bin Laden and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the heads of Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (ISIS), as the "political leaders" of their respective organizations?
In addition to Haniyeh, Hamas's "political bureau" consists of several figures such as Khalil al-Hayya, Khaled Mashaal, Musa Abu Marzouk, Ghazi Hamad, and Taher a-Nunu who have long been advocating the armed struggle against Israel and glorifying acts of terrorism against Israelis.
On the day of the Hamas-led attack on Israeli communities, these leaders held a special prayer in the office of Haniyeh in Doha, Qatar, to thank God for the crimes perpetrated by their terrorists and thousands of "ordinary Palestinians." These crimes resulted in the murders of 1,200 Israelis and the abduction of more than 240 others to the Gaza Strip. During the attack, Israelis and others were beheaded, raped, sexually abused, burned alive, and abducted.
Moreover, the "political" leaders of Hamas have threatened, from their safe villas and offices in Qatar, to carry out more atrocities against Israelis, and added that their ultimate goal is to destroy Israel. One of them, Ghazi Hamad, said in an interview with Lebanon's LBC TV that Hamas is prepared to repeat the October 7 massacres time and again until Israel is annihilated:
"Israel is a country that has no place on our land. We must remove that country... The Al-Aqsa Flood [the name Hamas gave to the attack] is just the first time, and there will be a second, a third, a fourth... Will we have to pay a price? Yes, and we are ready to pay it. ... everything we do is justified..."
Weeks before he was assassinated, Haniyeh called on Palestinians in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and elsewhere to mobilize and escalate the confrontation with Israel:
"We must rise in the face of the [Israeli] enemy. The free Palestinian people should mobilize on all the fronts – in Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon... They need to escalate the confrontation... to accomplish our plan of liberation and the return of the refugees.... We must be together in this and stand as one to defeat the enemy. We must close ranks together with Gaza, and in all our cities and villages in the West Bank, and in the occupied land inside [Israel]."
When Hamas talks about the "liberation," it is referring to its declared goal of eliminating Israel and replacing it with an Islamist state, as affirmed in its own charter:
"Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it."
The charter also reminds Muslims of the renowned Islamic Hadith:
"The Day of Judgement will not come about until Muslims fight the Jews, when the Jew will hide behind stones and trees. The stones and trees will say O Muslims, O Abdullah, there is a Jew behind me, come and kill him."
Note the word Jews, not Israelis. At the moment, other non-Muslims are also being slaughtered, such as Christians in Nigeria and other parts of Africa, and the Massalit in Sudan.
The "return of refugees" refers to the Palestinian demand to flood Israel with millions of Palestinians in the hopes of turning it into another Arab state where some Jews could be allowed to live as a "tolerated" minority.
Another Hamas "political" leader, Khaled Mashaal, said earlier this year that his group's attack on Israel has revived the dream of destroying Israel and "proved that liberating Palestine from the [Jordan] river to the [Mediterranean] sea is a realistic idea." He noted that there is "nearly a consensus" among the Palestinians that they will not give up their rights to the land stretching "from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea."
The fiery rhetoric and threats to eliminate Israel by Hamas "political" leaders did not stop some Western media outlets from describing Haniyeh as "a very moderate leader." Reuters described Haniyeh as "tough-talking" but "the more moderate face of Hamas," while Sky News called him "the pragmatic face of Hamas."
In response, Elon Levy, a former spokesman for the Israeli government and former international media advisor to the President of Israel, asked:
"What is a 'very moderate leader' of an Islamist jihadist death cult that perpetrated the deadliest terror attacker since 9/11 on October 7?"
"For the BBC, Ismail Haniyeh was 'moderate and pragmatic;' for the rest of us he was a monster," commented British author and journalist Stephen Pollard. He pointed out that Haniyeh had recorded the following message to the Palestinians from his luxurious home in Qatar: "We need the blood of women, children, and the elderly of Gaza... so as to awaken our revolution spirit."
Pollard added:
"Haniyeh was indeed 'moderate'. The total number of Jews murdered by Hamas does not come close to six million. Not that Haniyeh would have regarded that as anything other than disappointing, given he led an organisation committed to wiping out every Jew from the face of the earth.
"As for 'pragmatic': well, he was prepared to let others join Hamas in murdering Jews. October 7 saw at least four other Islamist terror groups take part. Kudos to Haniyeh for not keeping the glory all to Hamas. That's proper pragmatism for the good of the cause."
Now that Sinwar has joined Hamas's inner circle of "political" figures, it is reasonable to presume that he too will be dubbed by the Western media as a "moderate" and "pragmatic" Palestinian leader.
What comes next? Will the Biden-Harris administration and other Western governments rush to discuss with the newly elected Palestinian leader and mass murderer the creation of an independent Palestinian state that will be used by the Iranian regime and its terror proxies, including Hamas, to destroy Israel?
Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East. The work of Bassam Tawil is made possible through the generous donation of a couple of donors who wished to remain anonymous. Gatestone is most grateful.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20853/hamas-politicians-terrorists

Iran: The Next Nuclear Weapons State?
Andrea Stricker/ National Security Journal/August 13, 2024
U.S. Intelligence Community Drops a Bombshell Regarding Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Work: An astonishing U.S. intelligence report just revealed a grim truth: The Islamic Republic of Iran may be conducting nuclear weapons activities — yet Washington is doing nothing about it.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) recently provided an overdue report to Congress, omitting from the unclassified version a key phrase ODNI has used in annual threat assessments since 2019: “Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.” In other words: The U.S. intelligence community can no longer assert Tehran is not working on nuclear weapons. Iran has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so,” the intelligence report concluded.
As Iran inches across the nuclear threshold, America is wasting precious time. The United States, along with its European partners, must urgently mobilize the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), to conduct inspections to detect and end the regime’s illicit activities. Washington must also restore a maximum economic pressure campaign against the Islamic Republic and signal a credible military threat to deter and penalize further advances.
The unclassified ODNI report does not explain the basis for its recent, glaring omission, but media reporting provides clues. According to Axios, the United States and Israel collected intelligence last spring indicating that eager Iranian scientists were carrying out nuclear weaponization work: computer modeling and metallurgy experiments that could hasten Iran’s production of atomic weapons, should the regime order it. “U.S. intelligence agencies are re-examining their criteria for assessing Iran’s nuclear activities in light of what it is learning about the program,” explained a Wall Street Journal story on the ODNI report.
After significant delays, a U.S.-Israel Strategic Consultative Group met in Washington in July to consider the new Iran intelligence and strategize what to do. While the two countries reportedly enlisted the IAEA for consultations, Washington’s main solution was to demand private clarifications from Tehran via diplomatic back channels and ask the regime to halt the activities. Iranian officials reportedly explained and denied the nuclear weapons-work, and the United States was satisfied and dropped the matter.
What could go wrong in trusting partners like these?
With world powers focused on multiple, competing regional crises, Tehran may be not only continuing weaponization work, but progressing far faster than the West realizes.
Iran, Nuclear Threshold State
Today, Tehran is a stone’s throw from being nuclear weapons-capable, having accomplished the largest feat in nuclear weapons development — producing the fuel.
The regime’s breakout time — the time required to make enough weapons-grade uranium for a single nuclear device — currently stands at seven days. Iran could produce enough material for up to 13 nuclear weapons in four months. Tehran has thousands of advanced uranium-enrichment centrifuge machines spinning across at least three sites and may be stockpiling untold quantities at secret facilities, including at a new nuclear facility buried deep under a mountain.
The remaining step for Iran, “weaponization,” involves complicated engineering and physics to create the nuclear weapon itself, marrying specialized triggering mechanisms, explosives, and components with fuel to trigger an atomic blast. According to nuclear expert David Albright, the regime can reliably test a nuclear weapon’s components without conducting a full-scale test, also accomplishing some weaponization work at the same time that it enriches fuel to weapons-grade.
Due to the Tehran’s past, known work on nuclear weapons, the United States and Israel estimate Iran’s weaponization timeline to be about a year, if not longer. Yet independent non-governmental experts such as Albright believe the timeline may be less than six months. The obvious problem: no one knows for sure.
Once Tehran makes weapons-grade uranium —potentially at a covert underground site — there could be little warning, time, and ability for foreign powers to act before Tehran could emerge with a crude, yet perfectly functional, nuclear weapon. Iran needs only to conduct a demonstration test to establish nuclear deterrence, creating a protective shield around its atomic sites and military assets across the Middle East.
Past Weaponization Work
ODNI’s recent report to Congress expressed another key concern: “There has been a notable increase this year in Iranian public statements about nuclear weapons, suggesting the topic is becoming less taboo,” the agency wrote.
The former head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, Ali Akbar Salehi, publicly boasted in February that Iran had crossed “all thresholds of nuclear science and technology” and possesses all it needs to make nuclear weapons in a disassembled fashion. The alarmed head of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi, urged Iran, “Let me know what you have.”
In 2003, after non-governmental groups and the media first exposed Tehran’s covert nuclear activities and facilities, the Iran regime opted to downsize and split a robust weaponization program into covert and overt parts: Covert activities with no plausible civilian justification would continue at military sites, while less obvious nuclear weapons-work would continue at research institutions.
Holdups remained in several weaponization processes for Iran to create functional nuclear weapons. Tehran also needed more time to integrate a nuclear device on a ballistic missile delivery system.
The IAEA confirmed there were indications of ongoing Iranian weaponization work until 2009. Today, all weaponization activities are likely overseen by the Organization of Defense Innovation and Research, or SPND, its Persian acronym. The United States sanctioned SPND in 2014, calling it a “Tehran-based entity that is primarily responsible for research in the field of nuclear weapons development.”
Since 2019, however, ODNI’s reports assessed every year that Tehran “is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.” The basis for that categorical assessment has been unclear, since Iran is undertaking a variety of activities relevant to nuclear weaponization — from the IAEA catching the regime producing near 90-percent weapons-grade fuel and making uranium metal — a material used in the core of a nuclear weapon — to laying groundwork for a rapid breakout, removing IAEA surveillance cameras, ejecting inspectors, and limiting the inspectors’ reach.
Iran also refuses to fully cooperate with a more than five-year IAEA investigation into the regime’s nuclear weapons-work at former nuclear weapon sites. Despite this, the IAEA was able to conclude that Iran carried out undeclared nuclear weapons-related work at two sites. The regime is likely concerned that the IAEA would uncover remaining nuclear weapons activities if Tehran obliges.
Do Not Trust, Verify
U.S. and Israeli intelligence observed the recent weaponization work at Iranian research institutions, raising concern about what they cannot ascertain at military sites. Absent truly remarkable human and other key intelligence, it is unlikely the West can find out more without IAEA inspections. World powers must empower the IAEA to inspect for weaponization activities before the Islamic Republic exploits world powers’ distraction and crosses the nuclear threshold.
The IAEA should start inspections with entities involved in the alleged weaponization activities. While Iran would no doubt initially deny an IAEA request to inspect for weaponization work — Tehran’s safeguards agreement with the agency specifically covers inspections at facilities that are suspected to produce or house nuclear material — unified Western pressure and the threat of sanctions have succeeded in changing Iran’s calculus before. Moreover, in 2018, while Iran was allowing more comprehensive IAEA inspections, the IAEA visited two Iranian universities previously suspected of carrying out weaponization work, providing modern precedent for such access.
If needed, the IAEA can also trigger so-called “special inspections” in Iran. According to the standard IAEA safeguards agreement, the IAEA can ask to visit any site “if the Agency considers that information made available by the State and information obtained from routine inspections is not adequate for the Agency to fulfil its responsibilities under the Agreement.” The agency has asked for a special inspection twice before, in Romania in 1992 and when North Korea withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1993. The IAEA was successful in only the former case.
To be sure, Iran may move or hide evidence of nefarious activities, as it has numerous times in the past. However, the IAEA can follow a trail of evidence and continue requesting access, interviews, and documentation until satisfied. It has successfully done so in previous proliferation cases in Libya, Iraq, and South Africa to ensure those weapons programs ended.
IAEA inspections may have an effect of chilling further Iranian weaponization work, allowing time for world powers to revive a campaign of pressure and restore a credible military threat against Iran’s nuclear program. Inspections may also pave the way for IAEA member states to authorize an in-depth IAEA investigation of Tehran’s past and possibly ongoing weaponization work and verifiably ensure those activities have ended.
Surely, IAEA requests for access and investigations are likely to succeed only if Tehran faces major economic and financial penalties for its lack of transparency and threatening nuclear advances — meaning the United States must enforce key oil sanctions that previously curtailed Iran’s revenue and brought its economy to the brink. The regime is currently exporting record quantities of oil to China and other countries because of a U.S. failure to enforce existing penalties.
To stop the regime from breaking out of its nonproliferation commitments at an opportune moment, the United States, alongside Israel, must also continue to prepare and showcase military options and signal a credible willingness to use force to destroy or substantially set back Tehran’s program.
The Islamic Republic’s nuclear cat-and-mouse game has finally caught the attention of a cautious U.S. intelligence community. Now is the time for Washington and its partners to force Tehran to provide a full accounting of its atomic activities, past and present.
Andrea Stricker is deputy director of the Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program and a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). Follow her on Twitter @StrickerNonpro. FDD is a nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/iran-the-next-nuclear-weapons-state/

Tactical Calculations Shape Middle East Security
Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al Awsat/August 13/2024
Years of experience have taught me to be cautious of two events that always dominate the news: the US presidential election year and major global sports events like the World Cup and the Olympics, which capture public attention for about a month. This year, we’re in the middle of both a US presidential election and the Paris Olympics. Since Oct. 7, we’ve seen a series of major events unfold rapidly, with significant consequences but no real efforts or strategic plans to resolve them. In the Middle East, it seems the region’s players and their regional backers are moving without clear direction. Their actions are mostly tactical, lacking any clear vision for lasting solutions. What appears to be a mutual effort to maintain “rules of engagement” barely hides the reality that some stronger players, benefiting from global ties, are escalating tensions. Israel’s leadership currently feels unbound by any commitment to a peace process that the ruling far-right has never genuinely supported.
The potential assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, even while Hamas holds Israeli hostages, highlights that the hostages’ fate is not a top priority for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his supporters, who are focused on dismantling the Palestinian people, their identity, and their cause. Meanwhile, there’s been much talk about the “unity of the fronts” in support of Hamas, reflected in recent military actions. However, none of these actions compare to what Israel has done in Palestinian territories, including Gaza, or to its strikes in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, or the increasingly sophisticated assassinations in the capitals of what Tehran’s allies call the “Axis of Resistance.”This situation requires a rethinking of the terms “Axis of Resistance” and “unity of the fronts,” especially as the gap between the intense rhetoric and the actual substance grows wider.
Once upon a time, we heard Iranian leaders claim that “eliminating Israel would take just seven minutes.” Now, Tehran’s allies are making strange statements like “our goal is to prevent Israel from winning.”Moreover, the trust and coordination within the “Axis of Resistance” seem to be weakening, particularly in their responses to Israeli assassinations. It’s clear from the reactions of Iran and Hezbollah that, despite suffering significant losses, they are avoiding the confrontation that Benjamin Netanyahu, supported by Washington, seems to be pushing for.
The reason is simple: Iran’s leadership is more focused on “coexisting” with Israel under US-guaranteed terms rather than engaging in a suicidal war.
Even Washington doesn’t want to dismantle Tehran’s regime, seeing long-term strategic benefits in its survival. US policymakers have often said that the goal isn’t to change Iran’s regime, but to change its behavior. This means Tehran must understand its limits and avoid threatening Israel’s existence or vital interests. In practice, this is exactly what Iran and its allies in Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria have done.
Now, let's look at Syria...
Many are watching Syria closely after recent events. These include multiple Israeli operations, such as assassinations of Iranian leaders, and the mysterious disappearance of key political figures close to the Syrian regime. There’s also the unusual silence from Syria’s leadership regarding the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation and the escalating war in Gaza, including the lack of condolences for the assassinations of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Fuad Shukr in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Sources familiar with the Assad regime (both under the father and the son) believe it remains committed to the 1974 security agreement with Israel, which prevents any group from using Syrian territory to threaten Israel. I believe that Iran and its allies, especially in Lebanon, seem to understand this “reality” from a regime they know well—one that prioritizes “coexistence” with Israel to ensure its survival.
In a time where “tactical moves” overshadow ideals and grand strategies, most players, except the naïve, recognize that words and actions often don’t match. Iran isn’t tied to Moscow for life, the “resistance” narrative isn’t built to last, and the borders of entities born out of convenience will only survive if their creators stick to the realities that shaped them.

Why Iran may be looking to ultimate deterrent: a nuclear weapon
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/August 13, 2024
Iranian officials have consistently asserted that the country’s nuclear program is intended for peaceful purposes, and denied any plans to develop a nuclear weapon — emphasizing that such a weapon has no place in Iranian military doctrine, and citing a fatwa from the Supreme Leader on the matter. However, a significant shift in Iranian rhetoric has emerged since Oct. 7 and the war in Gaza. In addition, following the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iranian media has featured interviews with officials openly discussing the potential for manufacturing a nuclear bomb.
On Feb. 12, 2024, Ali Akbar Salehi, the former foreign minister, and previous head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said in a television interview that Iran possesses everything necessary to produce an atomic bomb. Then, on April 18, shortly after Israel targeted the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Ahmad Haghtalab, commander of the Nuclear Protection Corps, a unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp, remarked that “it is possible that the Islamic Republic’s nuclear doctrine and policies will be reviewed and move away from the previously announced considerations.” In an extensive interview with the “reformist” Shargh newspaper a few days after Haniyeh’s assassination, Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a member of the Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said: “I believe that we have only one way to achieve strategic and final deterrence against the Zionist regime and the rest of the enemies, and that is ... manufacturing a nuclear bomb.” Ardestani argues that unless Iran acquires a nuclear weapon, Israel’s policy of sabotage and assassinations will continue. “Manufacturing nuclear weapons is the only way out for Iran from the challenges, and the political, diplomatic, and security impasse,” he said.
A significant shift in Iranian rhetoric has emerged since the war in Gaza
In terms of the likely international response to Iran developing a nuclear weapon, Ardestani holds a controversial view, believing it will not precipitate a war against Iran, but rather mark a historical milestone. He points to warnings previously directed at Iran regarding an attack on Israel, observing that nothing transpired following the launch of 300 Iranian missiles and drones in April. He also argues that reaching the nuclear threshold will not result in an international consensus for military action or sanctions, saying that neither “the US nor Israel itself has the desire or ability to wage war against Iran.” According to Ardestani, the US might engage in sabre-rattling by deploying battleships and aircraft carriers, but would never actually order these to strike Tehran. He also dismisses the possibility of global sanctions being reinstated against Iran, contending that “the international community cannot bear another crisis.” He posits that reaching the nuclear threshold would provide the Iranian government with a powerful bargaining chip in negotiations with the West. Ardestani has previously made the provocative claim that Iran has already developed a nuclear weapon, but has chosen not to disclose this fact publicly. “Our policy is to obtain a nuclear bomb, but the announced policy is to act within the framework of the nuclear agreement,” he said. He suggested that there might be a clandestine site somewhere within Iran’s vast territory dedicated to the manufacture of nuclear weapons, emphasizing that these sites certainly would not be accessible to inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Tehran has reminded the world that it may possess a more potent option
It is true that these statements might be intended to coerce the international community into making concessions, while also pressuring Israel to cease crossing what Iran considers its red lines. However, it should not be entirely ruled out that these statements could also serve as a precursor to announcing the development of a nuclear bomb. The assassination of Haniyeh on Iranian territory could serve as a justification in this context. The Tehran regime had assumed that its missile and drone attacks, even if merely symbolic, would compel Israel to limit its targeting of Iran. However, Haniyeh’s assassination has left the regime believing that missiles and drones alone are insufficient to achieve the desired level of deterrence. Iran has also begun to fear that as Israel continues to target leaders and operatives of militias aligned with Iran, their effectiveness as deterrents will wane. Consequently, Iran has reminded the world that it may possess a more potent and enduring option that could be employed at a critical moment: the nuclear bomb. In this context, some observers blame Israel for pushing Iran toward acquiring nuclear weapons. There is a growing belief among some Iranian decision-makers that despite the US administration’s vow that it will prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon, and regardless of its warnings that “all options are on the table,” military conflict with Iran is unlikely. Many within the regime argue that the most the US might do is impose further sanctions for a limited time, and that, eventually, the world will be forced to accept Iran’s new status. While the accuracy of this viewpoint remains uncertain, it highlights the precarious balance of power and the potential for a significant geopolitical shift.
**Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is the founder and president of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). X: @mohalsulami