English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For August 13/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
Jesus is the atoning sacrifice for our sins,
and not for ours only but also for the sins of the whole world.
First Letter of John 02/01-11: “My little children, I am writing these things to
you so that you may not sin. But if anyone does sin, we have an advocate with
the Father, Jesus Christ the righteous; and he is the atoning sacrifice for our
sins, and not for ours only but also for the sins of the whole world. Now by
this we may be sure that we know him, if we obey his commandments. Whoever says,
‘I have come to know him’, but does not obey his commandments, is a liar, and in
such a person the truth does not exist; but whoever obeys his word, truly in
this person the love of God has reached perfection. By this we may be sure that
we are in him: whoever says, ‘I abide in him’, ought to walk just as he walked.
Beloved, I am writing you no new commandment, but an old commandment that you
have had from the beginning; the old commandment is the word that you have
heard. Yet I am writing you a new commandment that is true in him and in you,
because the darkness is passing away and the true light is already shining.
Whoever says, ‘I am in the light’, while hating a brother or sister, is still in
the darkness. Whoever loves a brother or sister lives in the light, and in such
a person there is no cause for stumbling. But whoever hates another believer is
in the darkness, walks in the darkness, and does not know the way to go, because
the darkness has brought on blindness.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on August
12-13/2024
What all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel could mean for
crisis-wracked Lebanon
Mikati: Lebanon committed to UNIFIL mission, de-escalation
Hezbollah's Radwan Force capable of infiltrating Israeli border - IDF officials
Israel Shekel Slips vs Dollar on Iran, Hezbollah Attack Concerns
Gallant hopes Iran, Hezbollah won't force Israel to cause 'significant damage'
Gallant says wanted to attack Lebanon on Oct. 11 but advises against it now
Report: Hezbollah to respond but keen on sparing Israeli civilians
Is Hezbollah Concerned With Lebanon’s Dire Situation?
Southern Front: Continuous Bombardment
Hezbollah attacks north Israel in response to Maaroub strike
Foreign Press: Predictions of Iranian and Hezbollah Retaliation Against Israel
Mikati speaks of efforts to halt Israeli threats against Lebanon, reach Gaza
truce
Berri accuses LF of playing for time by refusing dialogue
Air France, Transavia extend suspension of Beirut flights through Wednesday
Saydet el-Jabal Calls for Beirut International Airport to be Placed Under
International Protection
Airlines Extend Flight Suspensions to Beirut
In Times of War, Lebanese Youth Battle for Their Mental Health
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on August
12-13/2024
5.5 Magnitude Earthquake Near Homs
Hamas armed wing says one Israeli hostage killed, two women captives 'seriously
wounded'
Report: Iran tells US willing not to retaliate if Gaza war stops
US beefs up posture in Middle East, warns an Iran-backed attack on Israel could
come this week
Israel 'very close to regional war,' former IDF general says amid Iran threat
Hamas wants plans for deal instead of more talks
Israel monitoring developments in Iran, but no change to Home Front guidelines
IDF names 12 more terrorists killed in Gaza school strike, no answer on
civilians
Israel Keeps up Strikes in Gaza as Fears of Wider War Grow
US Publicly Announces Submarine Move to Middle East amid Israel-Iran Tensions
Leaders of France, Germany and Britain Endorse Calls for Ceasefire in Gaza
EU’s Top Diplomat Criticizes Israeli Minister’s Call to Cut off Aid to Gaza
Russia complained that its 'peaceful' people don't deserve to be invaded
Israel monitoring developments in Iran, but no change to Home Front guidelines
Putin to hold talks with Palestinian president Abbas on Tuesday: TASS
Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources on August
12-13/2024
The General and the Politician: Sinwar and Abu Ammar/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al
Awsat/August 12/2024
Starmer's Two Urgent Challenges After a Week of Unrest/Martin Ivens/Bloomberg/Asharq
Al Awsat/August 12/2024
Dhimmi Britain Sinks into Authoritarianism, Death to Free Speech/Robert
Williams/Gatestone Institute/August 12, 2024
Mohammed Dahlan, Gaza's leader in waiting?/NEVILLE TELLER/Jerusalem Post/August
12/2024
Cutting the Gordian Knots/Charles Chartouni/This is Beirut/August 12/2024
Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on August
12-13/2024
What all-out war between Hezbollah
and Israel could mean for crisis-wracked Lebanon/ماذا قد تعني الحرب الشاملة بين
حزب الله وإسرائيل بالنسبة للبنان المثقل بالأزمات؟
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/August 12, 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/08/133216/
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/August 12, 2024
BEIRUT: As Lebanon faces the increasing possibility of an all-out war between
Hezbollah and Israel, it also confronts a perfect storm of crises, ranging from
the economic to the diplomatic. The Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite group has traded
near-daily fire with the Israeli military in support of its ally Hamas since the
Oct. 7 attack last year led by the Palestinian militant group on Israel
triggered a military assault on the Gaza Strip. In recent days, calls by Arab
and Western governments and embassies for their nationals to leave Lebanon
immediately has greatly heightened concerns. The German Foreign Ministry has
expressed its alarm at the “false sense of security” among citizens, and warned
of severe consequences if the confrontation escalates into a full-scale war.
The US Embassy in Beirut said on Friday that it “encourages those who
wish to depart Lebanon to book any ticket available to them” while urging US
citizens who choose not to depart Lebanon “to prepare contingency plans for
emergencies and be prepared to shelter in place for an extended period.”
The risk of the conflict expanding in the Middle East has also led to more
airlines, including Air Algerie and Air India, suspending flights to Lebanon.
Britain has advised its airlines “not to enter Lebanese airspace from Aug. 8
until Nov. 4,” citing “a potential risk to aviation from military activity.”Fear
of escalation in the wake of two killings at the end of last month attributed to
Israel — Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah’s senior military commander,
Fuad Shukr, in Beirut — has driven thousands of Lebanese expatriates to flee the
country.
Many had arrived just weeks earlier to spend the summer with family, but now,
urged by foreign embassies, they have hastily packed their bags, leaving behind
a country on the brink. “This is Lebanon. Nothing has changed. We are used to
it,” said one of the departing expatriates, reflecting the resigned attitude of
someone who knew the risks of both staying back in the country and catching a
flight out of Beirut. The exodus of expatriates has
struck a devastating blow to Lebanon’s economy. As the primary lifeline that
sustains the nation, their departure spells disaster for small and medium
enterprises, especially in the tourism sector. Jean Bayruti, secretary-general
of the Federation of Tourism Unions in Lebanon, said: “If we sacrifice the
tourism sector this year, we will have sacrificed Lebanon.”
Lebanon’s economy, already fragile and weakened by years of political
instability, is now at greater risk. The World Bank had cautiously predicted a
slight economic growth of 0.2 percent for 2023, supported by remittances and
tourism. However, the situation has drastically changed. The national currency
has lost 95 percent of its value since the economy’s collapse in 2019, with more
than 80 percent of the population now living below the poverty line. Jassem
Ajaka, a Lebanese economist, warned that the low-intensity war in southern
Lebanon is eroding the economy. “If the strikes expand, the situation will be
more costly, as insurance rates and general prices will rise, and black-market
traders will benefit,” he said, referring to operators in the underground
economy. He believes that losses in the Lebanese
tourism industry could exceed $2 billion, compounded by disruptions in imports
and banking transactions. In the event of an all-out war involving Israeli
attacks on Lebanon’s creaky infrastructure, the damage could be catastrophic,
Ajaka said. “Gross domestic product losses could reach 24-25 percent, businesses
and hospitals would be affected, and there could be shortages of basic
commodities such as wheat and fuel.”The cross-border violence since last October
has killed at least 565 people in Lebanon, mostly combatants, but also at least
116 civilians, according to an AFP tally.
INNUMBERS
95% Loss in Lebanese currency value since 2019 economic collapse.
80%+ Population of Lebanon now living below the poverty line.
565 People, including fighters, killed in Lebanon since October 2023.
On the Israeli side, including in the annexed Golan Heights, 22 soldiers and 26
civilians have been killed, according to army figures. Tens of thousands of
residents have been displaced by fighting from both sides of the Blue Line — the
demarcation line dividing Lebanon from Israel and the Golan Heights.
Lebanon is deeply divided in its response to the escalating tensions. While some
believe that the country can avoid the worst of the conflict, others are already
experiencing its harsh realities.
Entire towns in southern Lebanon have been wiped out by retaliatory Israeli
military strikes, resulting in the displacement of tens of thousands of
families.
On Friday, separate Israeli attacks killed two Hezbollah fighters in Naqoura and
two Hamas members in Sidon, including the Palestinian group’s security official
in the Ain Al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp. It was the first time that the
town, 44 km from Beirut, had been targeted.
Israeli drones were seen flying over Lebanese villages along the border, using
loudspeakers to broadcast messages in Arabic against Hezbollah and its leader,
Hassan Nasrallah. In a televised address at Shukr’s funeral on Aug. 1, Nasrallah
said that Hezbollah was “paying the price for its support for Gaza and the
Palestinian people,” but also declared an “open battle on all fronts.”
The general consensus in Beirut is that Lebanese government officials have
limited options for avoiding a catastrophe. “The most Lebanese officials can do
is resort to lobbying diplomacy to prevent Israel from destroying Lebanon,” one
analyst, speaking anonymously, told Arab News. “They are unable to influence the
course of developments when it comes to Hezbollah and Israel.”
The situation is vastly different from the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, with fewer
safe routes for those seeking to flee. Many Lebanese people now consider areas
with Christian, Druze, or Sunni majorities as relatively safe, unlike the
Shiite-majority regions that are closely associated with Hezbollah.
For many, the threat of war is an all-too-familiar reality. Mohammed Sabra, who
lives in Beirut’s southern suburbs, did not try to hide his frustration.
“We are controlled, not chosen. Israel doesn’t need a pretext to attack Lebanon.
All I can do is hope for things to stay under control, because I can’t run
anywhere. I have five children and displacement will extract a high cost.”
Voicing his concerns, Bilal Ghandour, a jewelry shop owner in Beirut, said: “We
are dealing with an enemy that has no red lines, and we saw what happened in the
Gaza Strip. The impact of any future war will be severe in light of the economic
crisis we are suffering from.”
In recent weeks, Israeli jets have flown low over Beirut, often visible to the
naked eye, and have frequently broken the sound barrier, causing the loudest
sonic booms heard in years. The sense of fear in the Lebanese capital is
palpable, especially among residents of areas viewed as Hezbollah strongholds,
notably Dahiyeh, a predominantly Shiite suburb in the south of Beirut.
Haret Hreik, in Dahiyeh, was where Shukr was killed in an airstrike by the
Israeli military on July 30, in apparent retaliation for the deaths of 12
children in the predominantly Druze town of Majdal Shams, in the Golan Heights,
in a missile strike blamed on Hezbollah.
During the 2006 war, Dahiyeh served as the headquarters of Hezbollah and was
heavily targeted and damaged by the Israeli military. Dahiyeh doctrine, the
Israeli military strategy involving the destruction of civilian infrastructure
in order to pressure hostile regimes, is named after the neighborhood.
“Manal,” a university professor who lives in Dahiyeh, shared her
apprehensions with Arab News on condition of anonymity. “There is a sense of
fear for the family, and I have no plans A or B for displacement. All the bags
of displacement are ready in front of the doors of the homes of Dahiyeh
residents, even those who believe in the resistance,” she said.
A Lebanese couple run through the streets in front of a bombed bridge following
an Israeli air strikes on the Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh on 14 July 2006. (AFP)
Lebanon now faces a future filled with uncertainty. The economic crisis,
combined with the potential for war, has left many feeling helpless. “Everyone
is worried, everything is possible,” said Fatima Muhaimish, a resident of
Beirut’s southern suburbs. “There is no psychological or physical ability to
endure war and the horror it leaves behind.”
As the Lebanese people brace for what may come, they are left with more
questions than answers. “Is there really a safe place in Lebanon if Israel
launches a war on the country?” they ask. “What happens after this war, and will
there be other wars?”Social political analyst Maher Abi Nader attributes the
widespread sense of denial to the psychological trauma endured by the Lebanese
people in recent decades, most recently after the August 2020 Beirut port
explosion.
“The West is ignorant of our reading of the war. The Lebanese citizen knows how
to deal with acute crises. He prefers to live one day at a time to avoid fatal
stress,” Abi Nader told Arab News.
In his speech at Shukr’s funeral, Nasrallah said that unnamed countries had
asked Hezbollah to retaliate in an “acceptable” way — or not at all. But he said
it would be “impossible” for his fighters not to respond. “There is no
discussion on this point,” he said. “The only things lying between us and you
are the days, the nights and the battlefield.” With no clear path forward,
Lebanon is once again on edge, waiting for what seems like a delayed but
inevitable full-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel.
Mikati: Lebanon committed to UNIFIL mission,
de-escalation
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/August 12, 2024
BEIRUT: Lebanon is committed to UNIFIL’s mission in the south, the country’s
caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, reiterated on Monday. He said
cooperation between the Lebanese military and UNIFIL forces is crucial, and
rejected claims of differences and discrepancies, adding that “any issues
arising during task implementation are promptly resolved.”Mikati’s remarks
follow a dispute between the military and a UNIFIL patrol during a joint
operation within UNIFIL’s area of operation. According to security reports, “a
patrol carrying members of the French unit insisted on entering an area outside
UNIFIL’s jurisdiction in the town of Kfarhamam” — a village in the border
district of Hasbaya in the Nabatiye Governorate. Residents were displaced during
the escalation of hostilities between Hezbollah and the Israeli military over
the past few months. The reports said the Lebanese troops refused to follow the
patrol after the French unit insisted on entering an area considered private
property. Communications intensified after the Lebanese military threatened to
suspend joint patrols, with efforts focusing on mending relations. The
developments prompted Lebanese Army Command to confirm in a statement that
“military units continue to carry out joint tasks with UNIFIL, maintaining close
cooperation and coordination within the framework of UN Resolution 1701, in
light of the exceptional circumstances and developments in the country,
particularly the ongoing Israeli assaults.” The incident in Kfarhamam occurred
shortly before the extension of UNIFIL’s mandate, which is scheduled for the end
of this month, and amidst increasing hostilities between Hezbollah and the
Israeli military.
Mikati said on Monday that Lebanon was in discussions with the relevant
countries regarding the extension of UNIFIL forces’ presence. Last week, Foreign
Minister Abdullah Bou Habib noted “slight changes to the text concerning the
extension of UNIFIL forces (remaining in place).”A security source said that
Lebanon “demanded a comprehensive and ongoing coordination between UNIFIL and
the Lebanese Army and that any Israeli attack on the Lebanese Army be
condemned.” Last week, the Lebanese government distributed a document to the
heads of diplomatic missions outlining the principles to achieve long-term
stability in southern Lebanon in connection with Resolution 1701. Mikati said on
Monday that the document “establishes clear foundations for a solution, the most
significant of which is to reduce escalation to avoid a destructive cycle of
violence.” It also calls for the international community to play a decisive and
immediate role in calming tensions and restraining the ongoing Israeli
aggression against Lebanon, he said. Mikati emphasized that “the main message
that Lebanon underscores in all its diplomatic communications is the
implementation of Resolution 1701, which serves as the cornerstone for ensuring
stability and security in southern Lebanon.” Retired Lebanese Army Maj. Gen.
Abdul Rahman Chehaitli told Arab News on Monday: “The Army Command Operations
Rooms determine the routes of the joint patrols, and therefore, an army route
that is not agreed upon cannot be altered during the patrol.”He continued:
“There are stop points that no one can change, and this is not a matter of
entering private property.”A source close to UNIFIL said: “There is a constant
issue of entering private property, which could be an orchard, a house, or an
establishment.
“UNIFIL submits its schedule of operations in advance to the Army Command
Operations Rooms, and the army only participates in eight percent of joint
patrols due to its shortage of personnel and military capabilities.”The source
added: “Under Lebanese laws, the army cannot enter private property without
permission from the Public Prosecution’s Office, and Hezbollah may have
exploited this legal loophole in UNIFIL’s tasks and relied upon it to refuse
UNIFIL’s access to private property on the pretext that the Lebanese Army is not
entitled to do so.”Hezbollah’s supporters have previously accused UNIFIL of
“monitoring and tracking some of Hezbollah’s military sites, centers or
movements.” The suspicions have intensified during the recent months of
confrontation on the southern border. This is not the first such incident —
UNIFIL patrols have faced confrontation with residents of towns over access to
their internal streets before. The bloodiest took place at the end of 2022 in
the town of Al-Aqabiya, outside UNIFIL’s area of operation, resulting in the
killing of an Irish soldier and the wounding of three others. On Monday,
artillery bombardment persisted on the periphery of Naqoura, Aita Al-Shaab
Square, and Burj Al-Muluk. Israeli aircraft conducted airstrikes over the town
of Chihine in the west of the country. Additionally, the forest surrounding
Kounin was subjected to incendiary phosphorus bombs. Meanwhile, in Israel,
sirens sounded at dawn in the settlement of Nahariya and its surroundings,
reaching the Krayot area. Israeli media reported that air defenses intercepted
20 missiles fired by Hezbollah at Nahariya and surrounding towns, causing fires
to break out in various areas of Western Galilee. Over the past 48 hours,
Hezbollah has conducted more than 10 attacks on military sites and gatherings of
Israeli soldiers. Israeli raids resulted in the death of a Hezbollah member and
left five civilians injured in the areas of Taybeh, Kfar Kila, and Wazzani.
During a party event, MP Hassan Fadlallah, a member of Hezbollah’s parliamentary
bloc, said that Hezbollah initiated actions on the southern front because “we
had no other choice.”Fadlallah said: “No person with a free conscience can
observe the events unfolding in Gaza and choose to remain an onlooker.”Regarding
Hezbollah’s response to the assassination of prominent military leader Fouad
Shukr, Fadlallah said: “We are currently in a phase of anticipation concerning
the strategy and tactics that the resistance will employ in response. “However,
we must not allow the enemy to dictate our actions, as we remain on a supportive
front, and the primary conflict continues to unfold in Gaza.”
Hezbollah's Radwan Force capable of infiltrating Israeli
border - IDF officials
AMIR BOHBOT/Jerusalem Post/August 12/2024
"Anyone who thinks that Hezbollah isn't training to infiltrate a squad of
fighters into Israeli territory is mistaken," officers said.
While the Israeli home front awaits a response from the Iranian-led axis,
potentially involving an extreme barrage of rockets, various types of missiles,
and drones, officers in the Northern Command warn that the threat of a ground
infiltration into communities along the northern border remains. According to
the officers, contrary to popular belief, Hezbollah's Radwan Force is still
capable of launching an organized attack on the border, including efforts to
penetrate a community or military post. "Why hasn't Hezbollah done this yet?
Because they have chosen not to. But anyone who thinks that Hezbollah isn't
training to infiltrate a squad of fighters into Israeli territory is mistaken,"
officers said. "The working assumption for everyone should be that Hezbollah is
capable of infiltrating, planting a flag in a community or an IDF post on the
border, and burning several buildings. For them, this could be seen as a
victory. We must not forget that this is a terrorist organization. Such an
action could impact the entire region and terrorize the residents of the
region," they added. According to these officers, the
last month has proven that Hezbollah continues to operate observers and a
forward force of the Radwan unit in the border area, aiming to prepare for
continued fighting with the IDF. This activity has caused the terrorist
organization significant losses, as the IDF has managed to eliminate more than
400 Hezbollah operatives over ten months of fighting. Radwan Force
infrastructure damaged Security officials estimated in a conversation with Walla
that while the IDF has indeed significantly damaged the infrastructure of the
Radwan Force near the border, thereby reducing its ability to conduct a
large-scale surprise infiltration into Israeli territory, Hezbollah has not
abandoned its intention to respond to the assassination of Hezbollah commander
Fuad Shukr. Instead, officials are analyzing the Israeli side, seeking a
military response that is severe on one hand but won't escalate the region into
war on the other.
Israel Shekel Slips vs Dollar on Iran, Hezbollah Attack
Concerns
Asharq Al Awsat/August 12/2024
Israel's shekel slipped as much as 1.5% against the dollar and Tel Aviv stocks
shed more than 1% on Monday, with investors becoming increasingly worried over a
possible attack on Israel from Iran and Hezbollah. The shekel stood at 3.77 per
dollar by 1255 GMT, versus a rate of 3.72 on Friday but off an earlier intraday
low of 3.78. Israel shekel implied volatility gauges have risen sharply in
recent days, with the three month measure hitting nearly 11%, its highest level
since November, data from Fenics showed. "We mostly remain elevated on Iran,
with that also generating some of the volatility," said Mizrahi Tefahot Bank
chief strategist Yonie Fanning, Reuters reported. Since the beginning of August,
the shekel has firmed 0.1% against the dollar but the currency has weakened 5%
over the past 12 months. Emerging market currencies have struggled more widely
this year against a broadly stronger dollar.
"The shekel is struggling to hold on to last week's gains amid rising market
concerns that an attack by Iran on Israel could be imminent, based on comments
from various officials from both sides," said Piotr Matys, senior FX analyst at
InTouch Capital Markets. Israel's currency has been on a roller coaster ride
since the start of the month. It had weakened to 3.85 per dollar on Aug. 6
following concerns that Iran and its proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon would retaliate
for Israel killing senior Hezbollah and Hamas officials, but the shekel moved
back to 3.72 last week on efforts by the United States, UK, France and Germany
to prevent attacks. On Friday, an Iranian Revolutionary Guards deputy commander
was quoted as saying by local news agencies that Iran was set to carry out an
order by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to "harshly punish" Israel over the
assassination on July 31 of the leader of Palestinian group Hamas in Tehran.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on
Sunday that Iran was making preparations for a large-scale military attack on
Israel, according to a report. "Expectations of a ceasefire are low and
declining and the spectre of an Iranian retaliation remains," said Hasnain Malik,
head of equity research at Tellimer. Tel Aviv share indices were down between
1.25% and 1.5%.
Gallant hopes Iran, Hezbollah won't force Israel to
cause 'significant damage'
Naharnet/This is Beirut/August 12/2024
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has warned to retaliate "in a way that
hasn't been done before" if Iran and Hezbollah attack Israel.
Gallant said Sunday, as he visited a military base, that Israel is fighting for
its existence and that Iran and Hezbollah are threatening to harm Israel "in
ways they have not done before.""We must be prepared," Gallant said, adding that
he hopes Iran and Hezbollah "will think this through and won’t get to a point
where they will force us to cause significant damage and increase the chances of
war breaking out on additional fronts."Fears of a major escalation between
Israel and Hezbollah have left many in Lebanon and Israel on edge, especially
after a strike on Beirut's southern suburbs late last month killed Hezbollah's
top military commander, Fouad Shukur. The leaders of France, Germany and Britain
called Monday on Iran and its allies to refrain from any retaliatory attacks
that would further escalate regional tensions, as they endorsed calls for a
cease-fire in Gaza. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke to Gallant on
Sunday, reiterating America’s commitment to defend Israel and noting the
strengthening of the U.S. military force posture and capabilities in the region,
according to the Defense Department. It noted Austin has ordered a guided
missile submarine to the Middle East and is telling the USS Abraham Lincoln
aircraft carrier strike group to sail more quickly to the area. The Lincoln was
expected in the region by month's end.Hezbollah launched overnight into Monday
salvos of rockets in response to Israeli attacks on south Lebanon, targeting
troops stationed in northern Israel. Hezbollah has traded near-daily fire with
Israel in support of its ally Hamas since the Palestinian militant group's
October 7 attack on Israel triggered war in Gaza. The cross-border violence
since early October has killed at least 565 people in Lebanon, most of them
fighters but also including at least 116 civilians, according to an AFP tally.
On the Israeli side, including in the annexed Golan Heights, 22 soldiers and 26
civilians have been killed, according to military figures. Thousands have been
displaced from both sides of the border due to the fighting.
Gallant says wanted to attack Lebanon on Oct. 11 but
advises against it now
Naharnet/August 12/2024
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Monday that he had wanted to attack
Lebanon as early as October 11, 2023. "The cabinet did not approve that and I do
not recommend it now. War is an adventure," Gallant reportedly added, during
closed-door discussions with parliament’s foreign affairs and security
committee. "We do not want to attack Iran, but if it attacks, it will pay a
price," he added. "The threats from Tehran and Beirut may materialize and it is
important to urge everyone that preparedness, readiness, and alertness are not
synonyms for fear and panic," he said, according to a public statement released
by his office. "We are alert. In recent days, we have been devoting our time to
both strengthening defense and creating offensive options in response," he
added. Gallant also said that he supports a possible truce deal with Hamas to
secure the release of the Israeli captives, even if it will be in stages.
"It is our duty as decision-makers to strive to bring about the operational
achievement and … to create the conditions in order to return the abductees,”
Gallant added, noting that “the creation of the conditions comes through the
creation of military pressure.”
During the closed discussion, he added: "Even if we leave the Philadelphi
Corridor for six weeks, nothing will happen. The reason that a deal is delayed
is, among other things, because of Israel. There is the option of a deal that
will bring order in the north and south and there is the option of escalating to
a war. The security establishment and I support the first option and we will
know how to live with the price."
Report: Hezbollah to respond but keen on sparing Israeli
civilians
Naharnet/August 12/2024
Hezbollah is “calculating its steps very well” as to its anticipated response to
the Israeli airstrike on Dahieh that killed its military chief Fouad Shukur and
six other people, an influential figure close to Hezbollah said. “Hezbollah is
wary of falling into the trap of giving the Israelis an alibi to attack Lebanese
civilian areas, and it fears that its precision missiles -- which it has yet to
use on the battlefield -- might get deviated from the specified targets due to
jamming and deflection by Israel,” the source told Kuwait’s al-Anbaa newspaper.
“The Israelis are strongly trying to expand the war, but they are being faced
with the Americans’ deterrence,” the source added, noting that “Hezbollah is
being patient to avoid plunging the entire country into an all-out war, for
several considerations.”The influential figure, however, asserted that Hezbollah
will retaliate through striking “an Israeli military target, without hitting
civilians.” “Hezbollah has readiness for a lengthy fight against Israel and
there is no problem in it protracting for 10 years,” the source added.
Is Hezbollah Concerned With Lebanon’s Dire Situation?
This Is Beirut/August 12/2024
Hezbollah’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah’s remarks that “Syria is not
required” to enter the battle in support of Gaza “because of its difficult
internal conditions,” drew questions by an opposition leader who asked, “Is
Lebanon in a better shape than Syria?”
“Why is Nasrallah concerned about the situation in Syria and the need to exempt
it from the (so-called) struggle, limiting its presumed support to Gaza to a
political and ethical support, while ignoring Lebanon’s dire situation,
especially the financial and economic crisis in which it is floundering?” the
leader asked. “Wouldn’t it be better to neutralize Lebanon from the military
conflict and rely, instead, on its political support, as is the case with Iran
and Syria?” The leader wondered why should Lebanon and the people of the South
bear the repercussions of Hezbollah’s so-called military support front and put
up with the destruction and devastation that befell on them, especially the
inhabitants of the border areas with Israel? Scores of Shiite families have fled
the South and Hezbollah’s stronghold in the southern suburb of Beirut, to Mount
Lebanon’s villages and cities, to escape the horrors of war and Israeli raids.
These families will not return to their homes unless the war in Gaza and the
South stops.
Southern Front: Continuous Bombardment
This Is Beirut/August 12/2024
The exchange of fire between Hezbollah and Israel continued on Monday afternoon
at Lebanon’s southern border. In the early evening, the public garden of Maroun
al-Ras was targeted by a guided missile. Israeli bombardments also targeted
Bourj el-Moulouk, Aita al-Shaab, Kfarchouba, Chebaa, Naqoura, and Chihine.
Phosphorus shells fired at a forested area in Kounine caused a fire. In
addition, the Israeli army announced that it had detected shells fired from
Lebanon towards the Shebaa, Metoula, and Ramim farms in the Upper Galilee
without causing any injuries. It also claimed responsibility for an attack on a
launch pad used by Hezbollah in the Wardiyeh region. On Monday morning, an
Israeli drone fired a missile against the locality of Burj al-Malouk, causing
fires in the olive groves. A Merkava tank fired four shells at Aita al-Shaab and
the periphery of Kfarchouba with five direct hits. A raid was also carried out
on the town of Chihine in the western sector. At dawn, Hezbollah and Israel
exchanged fire, with more than 30 rockets fired from Lebanon hitting the colony
of Nahariya, “of which some were intercepted” according to Israeli media. “This
caused fires in different areas of western Galilee without, however, any
casualties,” they added. According to Israeli channel 14, “dozens of explosions
were heard from Nahariya to the region of Krayot.”Furthermore, the Israeli army
fired heavy machine guns towards the forests adjacent to the towns of Ramya,
Aita al-Shaab and Naqoura, while flares lit up the skies over the southern
regions up to the outskirts of Tyre. For its part, Hezbollah claimed to have
“completely destroyed the Israeli site’s espionage equipment” in Metula. In
another statement, the group claimed it had targeted the new headquarters of the
command of the 146th division in Jaatun “in retaliation for Sunday evening’s
strike on Maaroub,” which injured 12 people. On Sunday evening, the Public
Health Emergency Operations Center reported an initial count of 12 people
injured in an Israeli raid on Maaroub.
Hezbollah attacks north Israel in response to Maaroub
strike
Agence France Presse/August 12/2024
Hezbollah launched overnight into Monday salvos of rockets "in response" to
Israeli attacks on south Lebanon, targeting troops stationed in northern Israel.
"Approximately 30 projectiles were identified crossing from Lebanon toward the
area of Kabri," the Israeli military said Monday, reporting no casualties and
announcing retaliatory strikes. The Israeli military on Sunday said its forces
had "struck a Hezbollah terrorist cell in the area of Taybeh" as well as "a
military structure in the area of Derdghaiya". "Following the strike, secondary
explosions were identified, indicating the presence of weapons inside the
structure" in Derdghaiya, it added. An Israeli air strike on Sunday killed two
Hezbollah fighters in Taybeh, with the health ministry reporting another death
from an attack days ago. The Israeli military said it had "struck throughout the
day several Hezbollah military structures in the area of Adaisseh", which is
next to Taybeh. According to the health ministry, at least one Lebanese and 11
Syrians were wounded, two seriously, in an Israeli strike on Maaroub, near
Derdghaiya. Hezbollah fired Katyusha rockets at an Israeli military base in
Ga'aton, near Nahariya, "in response to attacks on civilian homes, especially in
Maaroub."
The group later targeted surveillance equipment in Metula and a post in the
occupied Kfarshouba Hills. Separately, the health ministry specified that a
Lebanese man who had succumbed to injuries sustained in an Israeli strike
"several days ago" on the southern village of Beit Leef was a Hezbollah fighter,
not a civilian as earlier reported. Hezbollah claimed several attacks against
military positions in northern Israel on Sunday, including at least two using
drones. Hezbollah has traded near-daily fire with Israel in support of its ally
Hamas since the Palestinian militant group's October 7 attack on Israel
triggered war in Gaza. A strike on Beirut's southern suburbs late last month
killed Hezbollah's top military commander, Fouad Shukur, just hours before the
assassination, blamed on Israel, of Hamas' political leader Ismail Haniyeh in
Tehran. The cross-border violence since early October has killed at least 565
people in Lebanon, most of them fighters but also including at least 116
civilians, according to an AFP tally. On the Israeli side, including in the
annexed Golan Heights, 22 soldiers and 26 civilians have been killed, according
to military figures. Thousands have been displaced from both sides of the border
due to the fighting.
Foreign Press: Predictions of Iranian and Hezbollah
Retaliation Against Israel
This Is Beirut/August 12/2024
Recent Israeli killings of key figures in Iran-backed groups have sparked
tensions and led to predictions of imminent Iranian retaliation before August
15. The deaths of Hezbollah’s Fouad Shokr and Hamas’ Ismail Haniyeh,
respectively, have prompted strong reactions from both groups. Iran has vowed
revenge for the assassination of Haniyeh on its soil, calling it a violation of
its sovereignty. During a televised speech, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan
Nasrallah asserted that the group’s response to Shokr’s killing would be “a true
response, not a superficial one.”With Israel on high alert, western newspapers
and intelligence sources warn of a potential Iranian strike as soon as Monday.
Before August 15?
According to the American news website Axios, two sources with direct knowledge
of the matter asserted that the Israeli intelligence community’s updated
assessment is that Iran is on the verge of attacking Israel directly and is
expected to do so within days.
This timing could precede the planned Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal talks,
expected to be held on the 15th of the month, adding tension to an already
critical juncture in negotiations.
“The new intelligence assessment indicates an attack could come before the Gaza
hostage and ceasefire deal talks planned for Thursday, potentially jeopardizing
negotiations at what Israeli officials have said is a ‘now-or-never’ moment for
a potential deal between Israel and Hamas,” Axios reported.
According to CNN, Israeli intelligence assessed Iranian forces could be planning
an attack “within days, even before the August 15 hostage deal talks.”Axios also
reported that “a source with knowledge of the intelligence said the situation is
‘still fluid’ and the internal debate in Iran continues. It is possible Iranian
decision-making will still change.”
Severity of the Attack
Politico reported that the same attack launched by Iran against Israel on April
13 will be unlikely, expecting that Iranian strikes could be through
“intermediate-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles against Israeli
targets.”However, with an anticipated severe response coming from Iran, several
media and intelligence sources questioned the readiness of the region for an
escalation, focusing on Israel’s and Iran’s readiness for a war expansion. It is
worth mentioning that in a statement to the United Nations on Friday, Iran’s
mission hoped the response to be “timed and conducted in a manner not to the
detriment of the potential ceasefire.” However, according to Reuters, “Israeli
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Sunday
that Iran was making preparations for a large-scale military attack on Israel,
Axios reporter Barak Ravid said in a post on X, citing a source with knowledge
of the call.” In any case, the US is expressing confidence that Israel will be
able to withstand any actions Iran may take in the coming days. US Defense
Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered an aircraft carrier group to hasten its arrival
in the Middle East, the Pentagon said on Sunday, as mounting tensions raise
fears of a region-wide war. “It is a show of support for key US ally Israel
after Iran and Hezbollah group vowed to avenge last month’s killings of Hamas
political chief Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shokr,” AFP
reported.
Mikati speaks of efforts to halt Israeli threats against
Lebanon, reach Gaza truce
Naharnet/August 12/2024
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Monday said that “diplomatic contacts
are active in several directions to halt the Israeli threats against Lebanon and
reach a ceasefire in Gaza.”“The Lebanese government’s paper declared in the
weekend, which highlights the basis for achieving sustainable stability in south
Lebanon, specifies the clear foundations of the solution, topped by deescalation,
in order to avoid a destructive cycle of violence,” Mikati added. “The
international community must play a decisive and instant role in calming the
tensions and reining in the continued Israeli aggression against Lebanon,” he
went on to say.
Berri accuses LF of playing for time by refusing dialogue
Naharnet/August 12/2024
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri is ready to "immediately call" for presidential
consultations, if all concerned parties are ready to attend. Berri told al-Joumhouria
newspaper, in remarks published Monday, that he separates between the ongoing
war with Israel and the election of a president and that he is "totally ready"
to call for a dialogue or consultations but that other parties are playing for
time by refusing his initiative. "Some are waiting for the war to end. They are
wasting time and chances if they are betting that the ongoing war would weaken
Hezbollah and Amal," Berri said, in an apparent reference to the Lebanese
Forces. Fears of a major escalation between Israel and Hezbollah have left many
in Lebanon and Israel on edge, especially after a strike on Beirut's southern
suburbs late last month killed Hezbollah's top military commander, Fouad
Shukur.Berri said Hezbollah's response is "imperative" but that "revenge is a
dish best served cold."
Air France, Transavia extend suspension of Beirut flights through Wednesday
Agence France Presse/August 12/2024
Air France and its subsidiary Transavia France have again extended the
suspension of their flights to Beirut, through Wednesday August 15, because of
continued tensions in the region, the companies said on Monday. The flights have
been suspended since July 29 because of the "security situation in Lebanon" and
their resumption "will be subject to a new assessment of the situation on the
ground", Air France said in a statement. German airline group Lufthansa also
said Monday it was extending the suspension of flights to Tel Aviv, Tehran,
Beirut, Amman and Erbil through to August 21 because of continued tensions in
the region. It added that it would also avoid using Iranian and Iraqi airspace
until August 21, an extension from a previous date of August 13.
Saydet el-Jabal Calls for Beirut International Airport to
be Placed Under International Protection
This Is Beirut/August 12/2024
In the context of a potential military escalation between Israel and Hezbollah,
Saydet el-Jabal has advocated for the international protection of the Rafic
Hariri Beirut International Airport and the road leading to it, in accordance
with UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
The group has urged the ambassadors of the Group of Five (France, Saudi Arabia,
the United States, Qatar, and Egypt) to take up this request to protect the
airport and passenger traffic through their communication with local and
external forces, thus safeguarding Lebanon from international isolation in the
event of war. With Lebanese citizens fleeing the country and the ongoing war
between Israel and Hezbollah since October 8, 2023, coupled with the recent
assassination of Hezbollah’s military leader, Fouad Shokr, in the heart of
Beirut’s southern suburbs, the statement highlights the fear and uncertainty
prevailing in Lebanon. The absence of a president of the Republic since October
31, 2022, a stagnant government, and a dormant parliament further exacerbate the
situation, as mentioned in the statement. Saydet el-Jabal urges political
parties, figures, and forces entrusted with Lebanon’s interests to form a
national political quorum. This quorum is deemed urgent to secure Lebanon’s
place at the negotiating post-war table, defending the constitution, the essence
of Lebanon, its sovereignty, and independence. The group insists that these
actions are prompted by the political fear of Hezbollah tightening its grip on
national decision-making and determining the fate of the Lebanese according to
its interests and those of Iran, with disregard for Lebanon’s well-being.
Airlines Extend Flight Suspensions to Beirut
This Is Beirut/August 12/2024
Amid growing concerns of a potential military escalation between Israel and
Hezbollah, several international airlines have extended their flight suspensions
to and from Beirut. Air France and Transavia announced on Monday that their
flights to Beirut would continue to be suspended until Wednesday.
Lufthansa Group followed suit by announcing the suspension of flights to Tel
Aviv, Tehran, Beirut, Amman and Erbil until August 21.Similarly, Swiss
International Air Lines has prolonged the suspension of its Beirut (and Tel
Aviv) flights until Tuesday.
Additionally, Middle East Airlines (MEA) has not reported any change to its
flight schedules since its last announcement on August 9. Information for MEA
flights operating between August 9 and 13 is available on the following link:
https://thisisbeirut.com.lb/lebanon/279910
In Times of War, Lebanese Youth Battle for Their Mental Health
Vanessa Kallas/This Is Beirut/August 12/2024
Ten months into the war, Lebanese youths are fighting a new battle — one for
their mental and emotional well-being. Their sentiments are varied, ranging from
fear, to hope, to dissociation. On International Youth Day, This is Beirut
explores how four young Lebanese from diverse backgrounds navigate their
emotions amid rising tensions. Fear grips the streets of Beirut as a distant
boom rattles through the air, triggering a wave of unease among the city’s
inhabitants. Anxious faces scan mobile screens, awaiting updates, questioning if
this latest disturbance marks a direct hit on the capital or if it is a mere
sonic boom. The evolving war strategies between Israel and Hezbollah have cast a
shadow over the mental well-being of the Lebanese populace in unprecedented
ways. While seasoned individuals, shaped by the scars of past conflicts, find a
grim sense of normalcy in these turbulent times, the youth of Lebanon view the
situation through a different lens. For some youths living outside the area of
conflict, the war feels like a distant occurrence. “The war feels distant
because it’s happening in the South,” says Tamer, a 17-year-old high school
senior residing in Beirut. “I wouldn’t say I’m scared or nervous; I try not to
think about the war.”For some youths sheltered from the immediate throes of
conflict, the war feels distant, almost abstract. Tamer reflects on this
dissociation, admitting that while the conflict remains at arm’s length, the
looming uncertainty can still disrupt the rhythm of daily life.
However, Tamer’s concern manifests differently: “We do get a bit worried,
especially when the conflict starts to get closer, as it might disrupt our
plans, like with school and other activities.”
For others, sonic booms serve as a traumatic reminder of a past tragedy: the
August 4 port explosion. “This psychological warfare triggers my trauma from
August 4. I can’t tolerate loud noises anymore. Even minor sounds, like a
passing truck, startle me,” explains Jane, a 20-year-old student from Hamra.
“This is why I can’t live in Lebanon anymore.” Jane’s family left Lebanon after
the Beirut port explosion for greater security. She admits that her PTSD and
panic attacks are heightened during her visits to Lebanon: “I think about the
explosion daily and replay that sound in my head. It has deeply traumatized me.”
A War Close at Hand
For those living in the South, the war is an immediate and overwhelming reality.
“Our situation is terrifying, and we are forced to relocate to areas to find
necessities,” says Ahmad, 14, a student at Marjaayoun National College. “I feel
depressed because of the situation. There’s this constant pressure to protect my
loved ones and a fear of losing them, and it is damaging my mental health,” he
added. Amidst the chaos, some like Adam have adopted a veneer of dissociation, a
coping mechanism born from familiarity with adversity.
Furthermore, the war has disrupted the educational experience for students in
the South. “We couldn’t attend school, so we had to switch to online learning
and did not complete the full curriculum,” noted Ahmad, “Also, we faced issues
with the internet after our generator was bombed.”Despite the dire situation,
Ahmad still has hope: “I hope and pray for peace in Lebanon and for everything
to return to normal. I miss my Lebanon.”
War’s Toll on Mental Health
Dr. Maya Bou Khalil, a clinical psychologist and psychoanalyst, explained to
This is Beirut the impact of sonic booms on the youth: “For those suffering from
PTSD, such noises can exacerbate symptoms like intrusive thoughts, emotional
numbness, and concentration difficulties. These unpredictable sounds can
undermine feelings of safety even in previously secure environments, leading to
vulnerability and helplessness.” Dr. Bou Khalil also notes that stress and
anxiety from these noises can alter behavior, making youth more withdrawn or
aggressive. Another common psychological mechanism among Lebanese youth is
“splitting.” During splitting, situations are perceived in a stark dichotomy of
good or bad.
“Splitting can be an effective defense mechanism to a certain degree, preventing
a total breakdown,” added Dr. Bou Khalil. “However, if these mechanisms fail,
they can lead to significant psychological distress and the fragmentation of an
individual’s sense of self and relationships.”
A youth sits on a damaged vehicle outside a destroyed building in the aftermath
of an overnight Israeli airstrike on Baalbeck on March 12, 2024. Photo Credit:
AFP
A Legacy of War
As the specter of war looms large over Lebanon, a generational divide emerges,
with youths grappling with conflicting impulses of engagement and avoidance. Dr.
Nasri Messarra, head of the Department of Sociology at Saint Joseph University
of Beirut, attributes this phenomenon to a lack of education about war, leaving
youths unprepared for its harsh realities. “The older generation either pushes
its youth to wage wars or avoids discussing war altogether to shield their
children from trauma, leading to a dangerous detachment from its true
horrors—destruction, famine, and disability.”
He added, “When young people see images from Gaza, they might not recognize that
similar destruction could affect them. However, similar devastation has been
witnessed in Lebanon during the Civil War and the 2006 war.” A boy stands on the
balcony of a building ravaged by Lebanon’s Civil War in Ras al-Nabeh. The
Lebanese civil war broke out on April 13, 1975, and ended in 1990 with the Taif
agreement. Dr. Messarra argues that the lack of a unified understanding of
modern Lebanese history, which is not adequately taught in schools, perpetuates
cycles of war. “Without historical awareness, the Lebanese will continue to face
repeated cycles of war every decade.” Some young people also have a distorted
perception of war. They believe the effects of war to be instantaneous, similar
to the Beirut port explosion, rather than protracted.
“For the younger generation, who have not lived through the Lebanese Civil War
and barely remember life before 1990, war is perceived as instantaneous
destruction because they have not experienced its long-term impacts,” concluded
Dr. Messara.
The absence of a cohesive historical narrative further exacerbates the cycle of
violence, perpetuating a cycle of conflict that threatens to consume future
generations. The distorted perceptions of war among the youth, shaped by
fragmented memories and external influences, paint a troubling picture of a
nation caught in a perpetual struggle for identity and survival.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August
12-13/2024
5.5 Magnitude Earthquake Near Homs
This Is Beirut/August 12/2024
A 5.5-magnitude earthquake shook Salamiyah in central Syria, around 40 km
northeast of Homs, at 11.56 PM Beirut time on Monday, according to the German
Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ).
The epicenter, 10.0 km deep, was initially located at 35.08 degrees north
latitude and 36.96 degrees east longitude. Local authorities are monitoring the
situation and assessments are underway to determine the extent of damage. It
have been felt as far away as across Lebanese territory, as well as Jordan and
Israel. A previous earthquake with a magnitude of 4.0 had hit the Hama
region moments earlier.
Hamas armed wing says one Israeli hostage killed, two
women captives 'seriously wounded'
Nidal al-Mughrabi and Jaidaa Taha/(Reuters)/August 12, 2024
One Israeli male hostage was killed by his guard and two women captives were
seriously wounded in two separate incidents in Gaza, the spokesperson for Hamas'
armed al-Qassam Brigades, Abu Ubaida, said on Monday. Abu Ubaida blamed the
incident on what he described as Israeli "massacres" against Palestinians. "The
enemy government [Israel] bears full responsibility for these massacres and the
resulting reactions that affect the lives of Zionist prisoners," Abu Ubaida said
in a statement posted on Telegram. He said a committee has been formed to
investigate, and findings will be announced later, adding efforts are underway
to save the two wounded hostages. It was the first time Al-Qassam has said its
guards killed hostages. The group has often attributed previous killings of
hostages to Israeli bombardment. Israeli Army spokesperson Avichay Adraee said
in Arabic on X: "In the last few minutes, the terrorist Hamas published a
written report claiming that in two separate incidents, Hamas activists killed
an Israeli[male]captive and wounded two women captives. At this stage there is
no intelligence document to confirm or refute Hamas' allegations. We continue to
investigate the credibility of the statement and will provide information where
we have it." Earlier, the Palestinian group named Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar, one
of the masterminds behind the Oct. 7 attack on Israel, as its new leader
following the assassination of former leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July
31. On Saturday, an Israeli airstrike on a Gaza City school compound housing
displaced Palestinian families killed around 100 people. Israel on Monday said
31 militants were among the dead. Hamas and the Islamic Jihad denied the Israeli
allegations, and said no gunmen were present at the school. There have been
conflicting reports about expectations regarding outcomes of talks aiming to end
the war in Gaza slated for Thursday. Hamas on Sunday cast doubt on its
participation in the anticipated talks. A ceasefire deal would aim to end war in
Gaza and ensure the release of Israeli hostages held in the Gaza enclave in
return for many Palestinians jailed by Israel.
Hamas wants a deal to end the war while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu says the war would only end after Hamas is eradicated.
Report: Iran tells US willing not to retaliate if Gaza war
stops
Naharnet/August 12/2024
Iranian officials have told U.S. counterparts in meetings in a regional capital
that Tehran is willing not to retaliate over the killing of Hamas chief Ismail
Haniyeh in Tehran should the war on Gaza stop, a senior source said. The
Iranians also said that the Lebanon and Yemen fronts against Israel would be
deactivated, the source told Kuwait’s al-Anbaa newspaper. “The Israeli side has
not given an answer, while the U.S. side requested awaiting the August 15 date
for the resumption of the negotiations over Gaza,” the source added.
US beefs up posture in Middle East, warns an Iran-backed
attack on Israel could come this week
Lolita C. Baldor/WASHINGTON (AP)/August 12, 2024
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered a guided missile submarine to
the Middle East and is telling the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike
group to sail more quickly to the area, as the U.S. on Monday said it believes
Iran or its proxies may launch a strike against Israel as soon as this week. The
moves, announced by the Defense Department Sunday, come as the U.S. and other
allies push for Israel and Hamas to achieve a cease-fire agreement that could
help calm soaring tensions in the region following the assassination of Hamas
political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and a senior Hezbollah commander in
Beirut. Officials have been on the lookout for retaliatory strikes by both Iran
and Hezbollah for the killings, and the U.S. has been beefing up its presence in
the region. John Kirby, the White House national security spokesman, said Iran's
response to the killings “could be this week,” but that “it is difficult to
ascertain at this particular time if there’s an attack by Iran or its proxies
what it could look like.” He said the U.S. and its allies were preparing for a
“significant set of attacks."“The president is confident that we have the
capability available to us to help defend Israel should it come to that," Kirby
said, adding, "Nobody wants to see it come to that.”Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder,
Pentagon press secretary, said in a statement that Austin spoke with Israeli
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant earlier in the day, and reiterated America's
commitment “to take every possible step to defend Israel and noted the
strengthening of U.S. military force posture and capabilities throughout the
Middle East in light of escalating regional tensions.”The Lincoln, which has
been in the Asia Pacific, had already been ordered to the region to replace the
USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier strike group, which is scheduled to
begin heading home from the Middle East. Last week, Austin said the Lincoln
would arrive in the Central Command area by the end of the month. It wasn't
clear Sunday what his latest order means, or how much more quickly the Lincoln
will steam to the Middle East. The carrier has F-35 fighter jets aboard, along
with the F/A-18 fighter aircraft that are also on carriers. Ryder also did not
say how quickly the USS Georgia guided missile submarine would get to the
region. He said Austin and Gallant also discussed Israel's military operations
in Gaza and the importance of mitigating civilian harm. The call comes a day
after an Israeli airstrike hit a school-turned-shelter in Gaza early Saturday,
killing at least 80 people and wounding nearly 50 others, Palestinian health
authorities said, in one of the deadliest attacks of the 10-month Israel-Hamas
war.
Israel 'very close to regional war,' former IDF general says amid Iran threat
Walla/Jerusalem Post/August 12/2024
"It is clear that this is heading towards a more serious escalation," Ziv noted,
adding, "I don't think any of us really know [...] what exactly the Iranians and
Hezbollah intend to do. "We are on the escalation line at the point where it is
really very close to a regional war," Major-General (res.) Israel Ziv said in a
conversation with radio 103FM on Monday, amid the heightened tensions with
Hezbollah and Iran. "Somehow, the scope of the fire and the intensity is
kept at a certain level that Israel manages to cope with, even though the prices
of what is happening in the North, the political and economic prices are quite
high. "It is clear that this is heading towards a more serious escalation," Ziv
noted, adding, "I don't think any of us really know, even within the [security]
system, what exactly the Iranians and Hezbollah intend to do." With regard to
the IDF's operation in Gaza, Ziv said, "There are very significant achievements
that the IDF and the State of Israel have made. Gaza has gone back 30-40 years."
However, he added, "It has reached a point where the efficiency starts to
decrease because there is a re-recovery. That's why you go back there every
time. Now, we are in the process of preventing regeneration. There is a higher
goal—to return the hostages." Ziv also discussed the hostage deal summit
expected to take place on Thursday, noting, "Hamas said they gave their consent.
They accepted the outline that Biden proposed on the basis of Netanyahu. The one
who introduced the changes is the State of Israel."
Hostage deal
"Hamas is signaling that it is ready to go to a ceasefire. In this regard,
Israel can even raise other, more distant demands, not only in the context of
aid. For all this, US President Joe Biden says that he is giving a last chance.
They are already in the middle of the election. He would be happy not to have to
take care of it. "This chance is also a good starting point for Israel and also
prevents everything we mentioned as a possibility for escalation. Israel has
much more to gain in reaching exactly this intersection as an opportunity and
not as a political risk."Regarding the objections within the coalition, he said,
"Who is it coming from? From the expert Smotrich, who destroyed the economy
here? Where is his cabinet? Your recovery is about to fall apart. What are we
talking about?". Regarding the public diplomacy front, Ziv said, "Israel is
already at a much lower level of legitimacy. The motivation to help out of a
crisis of confidence, especially in front of the prime minister, is great.
Hamas wants plans for deal instead of more talks
Associated Press/August 12/2024
Hamas appeared to push back against resuming negotiations on Thursday on any new
cease-fire proposals. In a statement, it urged mediators United States, Egypt
and Qatar to submit a plan to implement what was agreed on last month, based on
U.S. President Joe Biden's proposal, "instead of going to more rounds of
negotiations or new proposals that provide cover for the occupation's
aggression." The leaders of France, Germany and Britain endorsed Monday calls by
the United States, Qatar and Egypt for a cease-fire in Gaza, the return of
scores of hostages held by Hamas and the “unfettered” delivery of humanitarian
aid. The mediators had spent months trying to get the sides to agree to a
three-phase plan in which Hamas would release the remaining hostages captured in
its Oct. 7 attack in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel and Israel
would withdraw from Gaza.
Israel monitoring developments in Iran, but no change to Home Front guidelines
Reuters/Mon, August 12, 2024
Israel is monitoring developments in Iran regarding a threatened strike against
Israel, but the military has not changed its precautionary guidelines to the
public, the Israeli military spokesperson said on Monday. "We are following what
is going on specifically with Iran, with all our capabilities. We are also not
following alone. We are following with the United States and other partners,"
said spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari. Hagari said that the military has
not issued new safety guidelines to public, but if needed would update the Home
Front about any changes as quickly as possible. "We take seriously the
statements and remarks by our enemies. And therefore, we are at peak
preparedness for attack and defense," he said in broadcast comments. Israel has
been bracing for a possible attack by Iran and its proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon,
after a sharp escalation in tensions following a missile strike that killed 12
youngsters in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on July 27. In the wake of that
attack, Israel killed a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut. A day later, the
political leader of Hamas Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, drawing
vows of retaliation from Iran.
IDF names 12 more terrorists killed in Gaza school strike, no answer on
civilians
Jerusalem Post/August 12/2024
The IDF said it had probably killed Islamic Jihad's brigade commander for
central Gaza and disputed Hamas's claims that it killed over 90 civilians. The
IDF on Monday named 12 more terrorists who it says were killed in its airstrike
on the Al-Taabin school complex in the Daraj-Tuffah area of northern Gaza on
Saturday, increasing the total number of named terrorists to 31. Initially, the
IDF said that it could name at least 19 of 24 terrorists that it said it had
killed and had known were for sure on location from its intelligence collection
sources. Eventually, the IDF added that it had probably killed Islamic Jihad's
brigade commander for central Gaza and disputed Hamas's claims that the
airstrike had also killed over 90 civilians. Civilian casualty numbers haven't
been addressed. However, the IDF has not addressed how many civilians may have
been killed, only saying that it would make no sense for its three precise
smaller bombs to have been able to kill that many people, terrorists, civilians,
or otherwise. At the same time, on Sunday, the Jerusalem Post confronted the IDF
with specific claims from Palestinian West Bank parliament member Mustafa
Barghouti, who said that two of the alleged terrorists who the IDF said it had
killed at the school had been killed elsewhere and that other alleged terrorists
listed were minors. The IDF said it did not yet have information to address
those claims while still maintaining a general denial of any wrongdoing.
Earlier, IDF Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani had also said that Hamas and Islamic Jihad
were actively using the school and a nearby mosque to plan attacks against the
IDF. However, the military said it had known that the civilians were being
sheltered nearby, and avoiding harming them was why it had used smaller and more
precise bombs. Also, the IDF published a video showing that the compound where
civilians were said to be was still intact. Yet, on social media, there were
videos published showing chaotic scenes of at least some number of dead women
and children. Most of the world widely condemned Israel for the strike despite
its explanations, while the US said it was very concerned but would await an
Israeli investigation.
Israel Keeps up Strikes in Gaza as Fears of Wider War Grow
Asharq Al Awsat/August 12/2024
Israeli forces pressed on with their operations near the southern Gaza city of
Khan Younis on Monday amid an international push for a deal to halt the fighting
in Gaza and block a slide into a wider regional conflict with Iran and its
proxies. Palestinian medics said Israeli military strikes on several areas of
Khan Younis on Monday killed at least 16 people and wounded several. Meanwhile
more families and displaced persons streamed out of areas threatened by new
evacuation orders telling people to clear the area. As fighting continued in
several areas of the Gaza Strip, Hamas reacted skeptically to the latest round
of Egyptian and Qatari-brokered talks due on Thursday, saying it has seen no
sign of movement from the Israeli side. The group said in a statement on Sunday
mediators must force Israel to accept a ceasefire proposal based on ideas by US
President Joe Biden, which Hamas had accepted, "instead of pursuing further
rounds of negotiations or new proposals that would provide cover for the
occupation's aggression." Two sources close to Hamas told Reuters the group was
convinced the new call for talks was coordinated beforehand with Israel to deter
responses from Iran and Hezbollah to the assassination of the group's chief
Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and a top Hezbollah leader in Lebanon. "It is a mild
rejection you can say. Should Hamas receive a workable plan, an Israeli positive
response to the proposal it had accepted, things may change, but so far Hamas
believes Netanyahu isn't serious about reaching a deal," said one Palestinian
official close to the mediation effort. Hamas' reaction to the talks came as
preparations for a larger scale confrontation grew, with Washington ordering a
guided missile submarine to the Middle East and the Abraham Lincoln strike group
accelerating its deployment to the region.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin
that Iran was making preparations for a large-scale military attack on Israel,
Barack Ravid, a normally well-sourced reporter for Axios News reported on
Twitter. Israel has been braced for a major attack since last month when a
missile strike killed 12 youngsters in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and Israel
responded by killing a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut. A day after that
operation, Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, was assassinated in Tehran,
drawing Iranian vows of retaliation against Israel. The potential escalation
underlined how far the Middle East has been thrown into turmoil by the war in
Gaza, now into its 11th month. The Hamas-led attack on Israeli communities
around the Gaza Strip killed some 1,200 people, with more than 250 taken into
captivity in Gaza, according to Israeli tallies, in one of the most devastating
blows against Israel in its history. In response, Israeli forces have flattened
Gaza, displaced most of the population and killed around 40,000 people,
according to the Palestinian health ministry, in a war that has caused horror
around the world. On Saturday, scores of people were killed in Israeli strikes
on a school building in Gaza City that the military said targeted fighters from
the armed wings of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Gaza health officials say most of
the fatalities have been civilians but Israel says at least a third are
fighters. Israel says it has lost 329 soldiers in Gaza.
US Publicly Announces Submarine Move to Middle East amid
Israel-Iran Tensions
Asharq Al Awsat/August 12/2024
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered the deployment of a guided missile
submarine to the Middle East, the Pentagon said on Sunday, as the region braces
for possible attacks by Iran and its allies after the killing of senior members
of Hamas and Hezbollah. While the USS Georgia, a nuclear-powered submarine, was
already in the Mediterranean Sea in July, according to a US military post on
social media, it was a rare move to publicly announce the deployment of a
submarine. In a statement after Austin spoke with his Israeli counterpart, the
Pentagon said Austin had ordered the Abraham Lincoln strike group to accelerate
its deployment to the region. "Secretary Austin reiterated the United States’
commitment to take every possible step to defend Israel and noted the
strengthening of US military force posture and capabilities throughout the
Middle East in light of escalating regional tensions," the statement added,
Reuters reported. The US military had already said it will deploy additional
fighter jets and Navy warships to the Middle East as Washington seeks to bolster
Israeli defenses. Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Iran-backed Hamas, was
assassinated in the Iranian capital Tehran on July 31, an attack that drew
threats of revenge by Iran against Israel, which is fighting the Palestinian
Islamist group in Gaza. Iran blamed Israel for the killing. Israel has not
claimed responsibility. The assassination and the killing of the senior military
commander of the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah, Fuad Shukr, by Israel in
a strike on Beirut, have fueled concern the conflict in Gaza was turning into a
wider Middle East war.
Iran has said the US bears responsibility in the assassination of Haniyeh
because of its support for Israel.
Leaders of France, Germany and Britain Endorse Calls for
Ceasefire in Gaza
Asharq Al-Awsat/August 12/2024
The leaders of France, Germany and Britain have endorsed calls for a ceasefire
in Gaza, the return of scores of hostages held by Hamas and the “unfettered”
delivery of humanitarian aid. In a joint statement released Monday, they
endorsed the latest push by the United States, Qatar and Egypt to broker an
agreement to end the 10-month-old Israel-Hamas war. The mediators have spent
months trying to get the sides to agree to a three-phase plan in which Hamas
would release the remaining hostages captured in its Oct. 7 attack in exchange
for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel and Israel would withdraw from Gaza. “The
fighting must end now, and all hostages still detained by Hamas must be
released. The people of Gaza need urgent and unfettered delivery and
distribution of aid,” the statement said.It was signed by French President
Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and British Prime Minister Keir
Starmer. The statement also called on Iran and its allies to refrain from any
retaliatory attacks that would further escalate regional tensions after the
killing of two senior militants last month in Beirut and Tehran.
EU’s Top Diplomat Criticizes Israeli Minister’s Call to Cut off Aid to Gaza
Asharq Al Awsat/August 12/2024
The European Union’s top diplomat says it should consider sanctions in response
to calls by Israel’s far-right national security minister to cut off aid to
Gaza. Writing on the X platform late Sunday, EU foreign policy chief Josep
Borrell said the recent remarks by Itamar Ben-Gvir constitute “incitement to war
crimes,” adding that “sanctions must be on our EU agenda.” In his own post on X
and in media interviews, Ben-Gvir said that instead of agreeing to a potential
ceasefire deal, Israel should block the entry of humanitarian aid and fuel to
Gaza until Hamas releases all of the hostages, saying that doing so would bring
the militant group to its knees. Ben-Gvir has also repeatedly called for Israel
to permanently reoccupy Gaza, rebuild Jewish settlements there and encourage the
“voluntary” migration of Palestinians from the territory. Ben-Gvir, a key member
of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition, has threatened to
bring the government down if it makes too many concessions in the ceasefire
talks. Borrell called on Israel’s government to “unequivocally distance itself
from these incitements to commit war crimes,” and to engage “in good faith” with
cease-fire negotiations mediated by the United States, Qatar and Egypt. The
United States and Israel’s other Western allies have repeatedly voiced concern
about the killing of Palestinian civilians and Israeli restrictions on aid
operations in the 10-month-old war. But they continue to provide vital military
and diplomatic support for its offensive.
Russia complained that its 'peaceful' people don't deserve
to be invaded
Sinéad Baker/Business Insider/Mon, August 12, 2024
Russia complained about Ukraine advances into the Kursk region, calling the
people there "peaceful."The comment is ironic, given the attack is part of a war
that Russia began. Russian territory has not been attacked much before, and this
operation put it on the back foot. Russia complained that the people in its Kurk
region are "peaceful" and not fair targets as Ukraine advanced into Russia in a
surprise offensive. Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova
accused Ukraine of "intimidating the peaceful population of Russia" with its
offensive in the Kursk region, the BBC reported. mUkrainian forces advanced into
Kursk last week in a major attack that appeared to catch Russia off guard.
Ukraine has typically not sent ground forces into Russia, focusing all its
efforts on repelling Russia's invasion of its own territory. Its cross-border
strikes have mostly been with long-range weapons like drones and missiles. The
Kursk advance is very different, with Ukrainian armor and troops many miles
inside Russia's borders. Zakharova's plea to leave Russia's civilians alone is
ironic given the heavy toll on Ukraine's population over years of war. The US
has also been unsympathetic to Russian complaints about Ukraine's advance.
US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller last week said it was "a little
bit rich" for Russia to complain about its lands coming under attack. A crossing
point on the border with Russia in Ukraine on Sunday. Observers have debated the
extent to which Russia's population supports the invasion of Ukraine. Given the
absence of free media or independent polling, and laws restricting protest, it
is hard to measure popular sentiment. Some Ukrainian officials have repeatedly
argued that all of Russian society is responsible, not just its leaders.
Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to Ukraine's president, last week called it a
"critical mistake" to absolve Russia of responsibility. He said that events in
Kursk "provide an opportunity for a real-life test" of whether Russians actually
opposed the war. He said sarcastically that "liberated Russians could greet
anti-Putin tanks with flowers, signaling 'finally, freedom!'" Podolyak
continued: "We await such scenes, although their likelihood is already deemed
impossible."
Israel monitoring developments in Iran, but no change to
Home Front guidelines
Reuters/JERUSALEM (Reuters)/ August 12, 2024
Israel is monitoring developments in Iran regarding a threatened strike against
Israel, but the military has not changed its precautionary guidelines to the
public, the Israeli military spokesperson said on Monday. "We are following what
is going on specifically with Iran, with all our capabilities. We are also not
following alone. We are following with the United States and other partners,"
said spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari. Hagari said that the military has
not issued new safety guidelines to public, but if needed would update the Home
Front about any changes as quickly as possible. "We take seriously the
statements and remarks by our enemies. And therefore, we are at peak
preparedness for attack and defense," he said in broadcast comments. Israel has
been bracing for a possible attack by Iran and its proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon,
after a sharp escalation in tensions following a missile strike that killed 12
youngsters in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on July 27. In the wake of that
attack, Israel killed a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut. A day later, the
political leader of Hamas Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, drawing
vows of retaliation from Iran.
Putin to hold talks with Palestinian president Abbas on
Tuesday: TASS
Agencies/August 12, 2024
MOSCOW: Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold talks on Tuesday with
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who is visiting Russia, state news agency
TASS reported. Abbas arrived in Russia on Monday to discuss the Gaza war with
Russian President Vladimir Putin, a Palestinian envoy said. Russia's state-run
TASS news agency cited the Palestinian ambassador in Moscow as saying Abbas will
arrive on Monday and meet Putin on Tuesday. Abbas heads the Fatah Palestinian
movement, a rival to Hamas. Ambassador Abdel Hafiz Nofal said the two leaders
would discuss events in Gaza since the October 7 attacks on Israel. "They will
talk about Russia's role, what can be done." He added: "We have a very difficult
situation, and Russia is a country that is close to us. We need to consult each
other." Moscow for years tried to balance relations with all major players in
the Middle East, including Israel and the Palestinians.But since the Israel-Hamas
war and Russia's own offensive on Ukraine, Putin has moved closer to Israel's
foes, Hamas and Iran. The Kremlin has repeatedly criticized Israel's response to
the October 7 attacks and called for restraint.
(With AFP and Reuters)
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources on August
12-13/2024
The General and the Politician: Sinwar and Abu Ammar
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/August 12/2024
Are we headed towards a new Palestinian Nakba that is more horrific than the
first? Are we standing before a new chapter in the long bitter conflict when
Yayha al-Sinwar replaces Yasser Arafat and Hamas replaces Fatah?
Is Hamas banking on claiming the right to speak on behalf of the Palestinian
people and imposing its positions and choices on the Palestine Liberation
Organization? Was the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation all along aimed at putting an end
to the Oslo Accord and Palestinian and Arab normalization efforts?
Hamas has raised many questions by naming Sinwar as its new politburo leader as
the region awaits the Iranian and Hezbollah responses. It often happens that a
man takes a difficult choice that leaves its mark on his people and region.
Sinwar was six years old when a freedom fighter called Yasser Arafat changed the
course of the Palestinian resistance and turned it into a regional priority. It
was March 1968. The Israeli government decided it would discipline the fighters
who were infiltrating from Jordan and carrying out attacks. Defense Minister
Moshe Dayan thought it would be a cakewalk, especially in wake of the defeat of
Arab armies a year earlier.
Jordanian intelligence received word that Israeli forces were preparing to carry
out an incursion into the village of al-Karameh. Jordanian Lieutenant General
Mashour Haditha Al-Jazy relayed the information to the leaders of Palestinian
organizations in the country, including Yasser Arafat. It was highly unlikely
that the organizations, with their weak weapons, could repel the incursion. The
logical solution would be the withdrawal of the Palestinian fighters from al-Karameh
to avoid losses.
Arafat, however, chose to take the risky option. His political prowess helped
him realize that the Palestinian revolution needs a baptism of fire to impose
its legitimacy. So, he decided to keep the forces in al-Karameh. On March 21,
Israel made landings on the surrounding hills. Dayan would have almost achieved
his goal had Jordanian artillery not intervened and dealt his forces losses in
lives and machinery. Eighteen hours later, Israel called for a ceasefire and
withdrawal of forces.
I recall what Ahmed Jibril once told me. He said that he bluntly told Arafat
that the battle was a lost cause. Arafat, however, refused to withdraw and his
choice led to the death of nearly a hundred fighters. Arafat described the
battle as an epic, added Jibril.
The al-Karameh battle roused the Arab street. Thousands volunteered to join
Fatah and the movement was showered with aid. Arafat had taken a costly
decision, but he succeeded in creating a landmark moment for the Palestinians.
The battle opened the doors to Gamal Abdel Nasser, who took Arafat with him to
the Soviet Union. Arafat would become one of the region’s prominent figures.
In the beginning, Arafat shared the same dream that Sinwar now does: Restoring
every inch of Palestinian land. However, the statements Abu Ammar heard in
Moscow, Cairo and several capitals, and the many long battlers and numerous
sacrifices, made him realize that the Palestinians needed to face the truth and
balances of power. So, the dream of the establishment of a Palestinian state
existing side by side with Israel came to light.
Has Sinwar found his own epic in the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation? Was the operation
originally aimed at reaching a prisoner swap with Israel or was it aimed at
sparking a war that would return the conflict back to its roots and beginnings?
In 2011, Hamas agreed to release Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit after holding him
captive for five years. The ensuing prisoner exchange with Israel led to the
release of 1,027 Palestinians, including a stubborn one called Yahya al-Sinwar.
The obvious question now is: Why didn’t Sinwar plan to kidnap a handful of
Israeli soldiers to force the Netanyahu government to release thousands of
Palestinian prisoners? The abduction of one or more Israeli soldiers would not
have given him the opportunity to launch a destructive war and commit genocide.
Did it escape Sinwar that the Al-Aqsa Flood would certainly lead to war or was
he seeking a major shakeup regardless of the consequences?
Was he hoping the shakeup would lead to a rapid intifada in the West Bank that
would eliminate what remains of the Palestinian Authority that was born out of
the Oslo Accord? Did he believe the shakeup would rapidly lead to a broad war on
the Lebanese front that would demand Iranian intervention?
Did the instigator of the Flood predict that it would quicken the launch of the
“major blow” - the raining down of rockets on Israel from several countries,
including Iran? Was the Flood aimed at sparking a long war of attrition with the
help of the allies in the “Resistance Axis”? Is concern about this war leading
Netanyahu to threaten to spark a regional war to impose a ceasefire on all
fronts after the destruction of Gaza, which is the Palestinian part of the Axis?
In Abu Ammar, the politician had taken precedence over the general. It is
evident that in Sinwar, the general takes precedence over the politician.
Moreover, the Flood took place in a world that is vastly different than the one
in which the al-Karameh battle was waged. The American destroyers are on alert
to repel any attack on Israel. Iran doesn’t want a regional war. How will the
Hamas general back down from the war knowing that a ceasefire can sometimes be
more painful than firing the first shot?
Starmer's Two Urgent Challenges After a Week of Unrest
Martin Ivens/Bloomberg/Asharq Al Awsat/August 12/2024
Swift justice has made hooligans think twice about joining the mobs that brought
mayhem to Britain’s streets last week. Round-the-clock courts and firm policing
have, at least temporarily, acted as a deterrent to more of the violence whipped
up on social media by far-right agitators.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer has warned that “if you provoke violent disorder on
our streets and online, you will face the full force of the law.” As I predicted
last week, the threat of civil disorder has played to the PM’s strengths as a
former Crown Prosecutor. In 2011, Starmer called on the full might of the state
to suppress copycat riots spreading from the capital.
Yet Starmer cannot rest on his laurels in such a disturbing outbreak that has
shaken the country and its image abroad. He must address two urgent political
challenges arising from the disorder.
First, hooligans and racist agitators prey on real social discontents — their
crime may, as he puts it, be “pure thuggery” and as such inexcusable. But there
is a backdrop and it is no accident that the riots occurred in seven out of the
10 most deprived urban areas in the UK. Any Labour government will have to
tackle economic failure as its core mission. And it cannot afford to be seen to
dismiss how easily rabble rousers gained a grip on local communities in Labour
heartlands — including those it boasted of winning back from the Tories only a
few weeks ago.
Second, on the Right and in the twittersphere, a narrative is being propagated,
most noisily by Elon Musk on X but backed by some Conservative and populist
Reform party politicians, of “two-tier Keir,” who cracks down on the far right
but is soft on left-wing extremism. No smoke without a lick of flame.
Starmer’s politics, like most of his senior colleagues, are instinctively
“soft-left” progressive. There are many more former followers of Gordon Brown
than Tony Blair in his Cabinet. Yet it is from Blair, Labour’s most successful
leader ever, that the PM needs to take inspiration. After all, it was Labour’s
most successful electoral leader who came to power famously declaring that
Labour must be “tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime,” a formulation
with broad national appeal, then as now. The state must be seen to be
even-handed in enforcing law and order too.
But this is a useful period for Starmerites to study: A succession of Blair’s
Home Secretaries were forced to address challenges after 9/11. There were bomb
outrages in British city centers that threatened to undermine community
cohesion. New Labour’s strategy was to safeguard ethnic minorities from racism
while reassuring the white majority that the state would hunt down the UK’s
enemies. Blair’s government also made a crackdown on anti-social behavior a key
part of its domestic program, albeit with varying success.
The alternative to addressing these concerns is electoral disaster. Gordon
Brown, Blair’s successor, was a skillful machine politician with a powerful
intellect, but he had a tin ear for popular concerns and was doomed in the 2010
general election when he was accidentally recorded saying that a lifelong Labour
voter was a “bigoted woman” when she raised immigration on the doorstep.
Thereafter, Tory governments also lost authority when they made extravagant
promises to limit immigration they couldn’t keep.
Post-Brexit, the Tories promised to “level up” Britain’s depressed
post-industrial towns, where standards of living lag far behind those of the
prosperous English south. There’s the outline of an agenda here for Starmer too.
Perhaps he will be a lucky general: Changes to the immigration system by the
last Tory government will bring down numbers of legal migrants this year. That,
and a rosier economic outlook, gives him breathing space to work on his own
plans for border security
One Blairite figure at the heart of the PM’s court is ideally placed to tie the
strings together. Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s head of political strategy, cut
his teeth in politics taking on the fascist British National Party in his poor
east London borough, Barking and Dagenham. In common with the deprived areas
where the riots broke out this week, the borough was a cheap dumping ground for
asylum seekers. Immigration numbers were high and there was competition for
social housing. McSweeney focused on crime and working class patriotism to wipe
out the BNP in the 2010 general election.
The long game for Labour is to improve economic growth. Over the short term, the
government will be on alert for more outbreaks of disorder. But in the
medium-term, Starmer and McSweeney need a language of reassurance — not for
white nativist thugs who brought chaos to our streets, but for the more sizable
group of law-abiding but resentful voters who think the conventional political
parties ignore their concerns.
Dhimmi Britain Sinks into Authoritarianism, Death to Free Speech
Robert Williams/Gatestone Institute/August 12, 2024
The teenage son of a Rwandan migrant family stabbed three little girls to death
at a Taylor Swift-themed dance workshop in Southport, a city near Liverpool, on
July 29. The murders triggered protests and riots by Britons who have apparently
had enough.
Within a day of the first protests, Prime Minister Keir Starmer gave a speech in
which he barely mentioned the murdered little girls, yet painted those who
protested as "far right thugs..." He added that he was creating a special
Violent Crime Unit, dedicated to fighting -- guess who -- the protesters.
Incredibly, Starmer's first act after the murders was not, as one might expect,
to deal with concerns over the safety of British citizens, but to dedicate funds
to new emergency security for mosques.
Starmer could have stopped the demonstrators in their tracks by listening to --
and addressing -- the concerns of "ordinary" people in the wake of the murders.
Instead, he chose to brand them as "far right thugs", thereby inflaming an
entire country...
Police further inflamed matters by setting their dogs on harmless protesters,
arresting many, and handcuffing a 73-year-old lady with a pacemaker who had
never been arrested before, and was guilty of just peacefully protesting the
murders of young girls.
"I'm 73 years old and I've here because of them babies that has died and I'm
being arrested," said the woman, who was surrounded by riot police.
In Plymouth, according to one report, while leftist radicals were destroying a
church... police were not stopping the radicals, but instead beating the
protesters.
The director of public prosecutions of England and Wales, Stephen Parkinson,
chillingly warned that sharing and retweeting online material of the riots was a
serious offense that would lead to arrest.
So, retweeting posts on X now gets you sent to the pokey. A Muslim brandishing
an AK-47 assault rifle on social media, however, while threatening to blow
people's heads off, is apparently acceptable.
What the police did not do was arrest the gangs of armed Muslim men who took to
the streets across British cities. In Birmingham, Bolton, and Middlesbrough,
"Muslim patrol" members beat white people, whom they accused of being part of
the anti-mass migration protests.
Why were no police officers present? When West Midlands police were asked why
they did nothing about "an awful lot of people armed with various weapons"
(Muslim gangs) in Birmingham, the answer was that the Muslim communities had
been allowed to "do their own policing".
"We have really strong business and community relations [with Muslim
communities]... we had the opportunity to meet with [Muslim] community leaders,
meet with [Muslim] business leaders... to kind of understand the style of
policing that we needed to deliver..." — West Midlands Police Superintendent
Emlyn Richards.
He [Richards] then went on to note that the counter-protesters (the Muslim
gangs) had "the right intentions" and that only "a small minority" of people had
been intent on causing "either criminality, disorder or fear within our
communities."
Curiously, British police did not acknowledge "right intentions" of those
protesting the Southport murders and that only "a small minority" had engaged in
violence and riots against the police, hotels hosting illegal migrants, and
mosques.
Contrary to what the police said, Muslim "elders" appeared to incite members of
their community in Birmingham, telling them to "protect the house of Allah"
against the "far right" and messaging Starmer that they were fully able to
"defend themselves".
The Chief Constable of the West Midlands... released a video statement addressed
to the Muslims in the region, greeting them deferentially with "Salam Alaykum,"
and reassuring them of the police's support and giving "huge thanks" to their
"elders" for their "cooperation."
Using the ongoing protests across Britain to crack down -- one-sidedly -- on
basic rights, Starmer has successfully exacerbated racial conflict, inflamed
tensions, created division, penalized free speech and neatly sneezed at
legitimate concerns.
Using the ongoing protests across Britain to crack down -- one-sidedly -- on
basic rights, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has successfully exacerbated racial
conflict, inflamed tensions, created division, penalized free speech and neatly
sneezed at legitimate concerns. Pictured: A car burns during a riot in
Middlesbrough, England on August 4, 2024. (Photo by Ian Forsyth/Getty Images)
Barely a month after the elections, and the new Labour Party government is
dragging Britain into serious civil conflict, while destroying the preciously
little that remains of British freedoms, especially freedom of speech.
The teenage son of a Rwandan migrant family stabbed three little girls to death
at a Taylor Swift-themed dance workshop in Southport, a city near Liverpool, on
July 29. The murders triggered protests and riots by Britons who have apparently
had enough.
Within a day of the first protests, Prime Minister Keir Starmer gave a speech in
which he barely mentioned the murdered little girls, yet painted those who
protested as "far right thugs" who had come from outside Southport to stir up
trouble. He thus dismissed all the concerns of the majority of the British and
their worries about the mass migration that is affecting the safety of their
children, families and communities. Incredibly, Starmer's first act after the
murders was not, as one might expect, to deal with concerns over the safety of
British citizens, but to dedicate funds to new emergency security for mosques.
According to Starmer:
"A gang of thugs, got on trains and busses, went to a community that is not
their own... And then proceeded to throw bricks at police officers... Whether
it's in Southport, London – or Hartlepool... These people are showing our
country exactly who they are. Mosques targeted because they are Mosques. Flares
thrown at the statue of Winston Churchill. A Nazi salute at the Cenotaph."
He added that he was creating a special Violent Crime Unit, dedicated to
fighting -- guess who -- the protesters:
"And so I've just held a meeting with senior police and law enforcement
leaders... Because let's be very clear about this. It's not protest. It's not
legitimate. It's crime... We will put a stop to it... A response both to the
immediate challenge, which is clearly driven by far-right hatred... And so -- to
that end I can announce today, that following this meeting we will establish a
national capability, across police forces to tackle violent disorder."
Not letting the crisis go to waste, he also announced that the government would
be expanding the use of facial recognition technology:
"These thugs are mobile. They move from community to community, and we must have
a policing response that can do the same... Wider deployment of facial
recognition technology... preventive action – criminal behaviour orders to
restrict their movements before they can even board a train."
Starmer could have stopped the demonstrators in their tracks by listening to --
and addressing -- the concerns of "ordinary" people in the wake of the murders.
Instead, he chose to brand them as "far right thugs", thereby inflaming an
entire country, with protests and rioting spreading from Southport to other
cities. Police further inflamed matters by setting their dogs on harmless
protesters, arresting many, and handcuffing a 73-year-old lady with a pacemaker
who had never been arrested before, and was guilty of just peacefully protesting
the murders of young girls.
"I'm 73 years old and I've here because of them babies that has died and I'm
being arrested," said the woman, who was surrounded by riot police.
In Plymouth, according to one report, while leftist radicals were destroying a
church, taking stones from its wall to throw at the protesters, police were not
stopping the radicals, but instead beating the protesters.
Immediately clamping down on the sad remains of British free speech, the
director of public prosecutions of England and Wales, Stephen Parkinson,
chillingly warned that sharing and retweeting online material of the riots was a
serious offense that would lead to arrest. "We do have dedicated police officers
who are scouring social media to look for this material, and then follow up with
arrests," he said.
Around the same time, Northampton police posted on X that they had "received
reports of a hate crime regarding a post published on social media" and in
response had arrested a 41-year-old woman "on suspicion of inciting racial
hatred."
So, retweeting posts on X now gets you sent to the pokey. A Muslim brandishing
an AK-47 assault rifle on social media, however, while threatening to blow
people's heads off, is apparently acceptable. Equally acceptable, evidently, are
Muslim radicals vowing on social media that any members of the "English Defense
League" (an anti-Islam group that was disbanded around a decade ago) who show up
to Walthamstow in northeast London will be murdered, and their bodies
"disappeared" in the woods. In fact, Muslims and radical leftists did mobilize
in Walthamstow over rumors of an anti-mass migration protest -- which did not
take place -- brandishing Palestinian flags. The crowd cheered, as local Labour
councilor Ricky Jones gave a speech in which he called for the murder of Britons
who protest against mass immigration.
"They are disgusting fascists and we need to cut all their throats and get rid
of them all," he said. After the video circulated online, police eventually had
no choice but to arrest Jones.
Peter Kyle, Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology, summoned
representatives from social media giants and told them to clamp down on users
deviating from the government narrative.
"I expect platforms to ensure that those seeking to spread hate online are not
being facilitated and have nowhere to hide," Kyle said. Elon Musk, the owner of
X (formerly Twitter), was condemned by the British government for stating that
the UK was heading towards civil war.
Within a few days, Starmer's ramped-up special unit had managed to arrest, try
and sentence a British rioter to three years in prison for punching a police
officer. Yet, the murderer of the three Southport girls, Axel Rudakubana, will
only go on trial next year, while rape victims in the UK, including little
children, wait an average of 358 days before their rapists go on trial.
Police launched "dawn raids" on protesters after having "scoured thousands of
hours of footage to identify people who engaged in violent behavior."
What the police did not do was arrest the gangs of armed Muslim men who took to
the streets across British cities. In Birmingham, Bolton, and Middlesbrough,
"Muslim patrol" members beat white people, whom they accused of being part of
the anti-mass migration protests. In Sheffield, machete-wielding Muslims roamed
the streets in search of white "far right" people to attack.
In Birmingham, the UK's second-largest city, Muslim gangs armed with swords went
looking for white protesters -- with not a policeman in sight. A Sky News
reporter was forced to end her broadcast after a masked man approached her
shouting "Free Palestine" while other men surrounding her made shooting signs
with their hands. The gangs violently attacked an innocent man, beating him to
the ground in front of a Birmingham pub he had happened to visit. They also shut
down roads and attacked cars, after checking them to see that there were whites
inside. No police officers were to be seen.
Why were no police officers present? When West Midlands police were asked why
they did nothing about "an awful lot of people armed with various weapons"
(Muslim gangs) in Birmingham, the answer was that the Muslim communities had
been allowed to "do their own policing".
West Midlands Police Superintendent Emlyn Richards said:
"We have really strong business and community relations [with the Muslim
communities]... we had the opportunity to meet with [Muslim] community leaders,
meet with [Muslim] business leaders... to kind of understand the style of
policing that we needed to deliver... So we knew there was going to be a large
amount of people out on that counter protest, we knew who the vast majority of
who those people were."
He then went on to note that the counter-protesters (the Muslim gangs) had "the
right intentions" and that only "a small minority" of people had been intent on
causing "either criminality, disorder or fear within our communities."
Curiously, British police did not acknowledge "right intentions" of those
protesting the Southport murders and that only "a small minority" had engaged in
violence and riots against the police, hotels hosting illegal migrants, and
mosques.
Richards concluded:
"What we saw was a response from our [Muslim] communities where they were kind
of trying to make sure that was policed within themselves as well and trying to
deter people from taking part in that disorder,"
Translation: huge parts of the UK are no-go zones where the police no longer
hold authority.
Contrary to what the police said, Muslim "elders" appeared to incite members of
their community in Birmingham, telling them to "protect the house of Allah"
against the "far right" and messaging Starmer that they were fully able to
"defend themselves".
"[W]hen the call is made, we will defend ourselves. We are not ashamed of this,
inshallah, and we will openly say the takbeer ["Allahu Akbar", "Allah is the
greatest"] whenever we feel like it," the Muslim elder told a crowd which
proceeded to break out in shouts of "Allahu Akbar!" A threat?
Not according to the Chief Constable of the West Midlands, who released a video
statement addressed to the Muslims in the region, greeting them deferentially
with "Salam Alaykum," and reassuring them of the police's support and giving
"huge thanks" to their "elders" for their "cooperation."
In Stoke-on-Trent, the police nicely asked a crowd of armed Muslims gathered
outside a mosque to please "discard" their weapons inside the mosque. No
arrests.
"Don't give anybody any reason to have any interaction with the police, so if
there's any weapons, get rid of them, we are not going to arrest anybody," the
police officer said.
In Croydon, London, Muslim gangs went on a rampage apparently in search of white
people to attack, but finding none, they instead proceeded to smash up whatever
they could find. The police posted a deceiving message on X in which they
claimed that the Muslim riot in Croydon had nothing to do with the protests but
was a separate issue.
The list goes on. The legacy media barely reported the Muslim violence. The BBC
claimed -- as most of the media did in the US during the fiery summer of rioting
in 2020 -- that although a Birmingham pub had been attacked, the Muslim protests
had been "largely peaceful."
In contrast to this blitz of an authoritarian crackdown, Starmer, when he was
leader of the opposition in Parliament, showed nothing but understanding for the
people participating in the large-scale riots that Black Lives Matter (BLM)
unleashed on the UK after the death of George Floyd in 2020. Large-scale
violence and destruction, dozens of policemen wounded by BLM protesters and
property damage, including damage to the Whitehall cenotaph and defacement and
destruction of historical statues, apparently did not bother Starmer. Instead,
at the time, he released a photo of himself "taking a knee" in support of BLM
along with a statement in which he asked the British government to "ensure that
our exports are not being used in the suppression of democratic rights in the
US."
Ten months of weekly protests across the UK in support of the terrorist group
Hamas -- and orchestrated by Hamas-affiliated organizations, calling for
"Jihad!" and for Israel to be cleansed of its Jews "from the river to the sea,"
while waving jihadist, Al Qaeda flags, and celebrating terrorists who murdered,
raped, mutilated and burned innocent people alive -- have had no consequences
whatsoever for those involved, who continue their demonstrations, even though,
in the UK, both Hamas and Al Qaeda are proscribed terrorist organizations and
supporting them can carry a prison sentence to imprisonment for up to 14 years.
Meanwhile, however, the Greater Manchester police, following a complaint,
removed posters of kidnapped Israelis, an act for which, after a severe
backlash, they later had to apologize. In London, the Metropolitan Police also
removed posters of Israeli hostages, to, as they said, "avoid any further
increase in community tension" and out of "a responsibility to take reasonable
steps to stop issues escalating." Then calls for Jews to be killed, according to
the British police, do not "escalate issues" or "increase community tension"?
Starmer, following in the footsteps of his Conservative predecessor Rishi Sunak,
has evidently felt no need to clamp down on jihadists, on calls for an intifada
or on cries to "free Palestine from the river to the sea," a chant widely
understood to be calling for the destruction of Israel."
The terrorist threat of jihadi mobs continues to this day, yet the former head
of counter-terrorism policing, Neil Basu, opined that the current UK protests
against the murder of little girls and illegal migration were the ones that had
"crossed the line into terrorism."
Many of the places that have seen protests and riots are towns and cities such
as Rotherham, where inhabitants rightfully fear the consequences of continued
mass migration. Those cities were the scenes of sexual abuse on an unbelievable
scale and equally unbelievable deliberate failures by authorities to deal with
that abuse. In Telford alone, Muslim grooming gangs raped, abused and tortured
more than 1,000 little children and teenagers beginning in the 1980s, and, in
some cases, even murdered some.
Similar horrific acts by grooming gangs took place – and still are taking place
-- in Rotherham, Rochdale, Oxford, Peterborough, Keighley, Newcastle and
Birmingham. Today, many illegal migrants, almost all men from outside the
European Union, are housed in hotels, courtesy of British taxpayers, who
reportedly pay £8m a day for their accommodation, in some of those very cities,
and reportedly continue to stalk and harass local English children. According to
one former child victim of the grooming gangs, British police are still trying
to cover the whole wreck up.
Almost the only figure of authority to talk any sense since the protests and
riots began, is Donna Jones, Police and Crime Commissioner of Hampshire and Isle
of Wight, who urged for calm and for the country to work together, calling on
the government to listen to the legitimate grievances of those who are
protesting:
"The announcement of the Prime Minister's new Violent Crime Units have lead to
an accusation of two tier policing, which has enflamed protestors who state they
are battling to protect Britain's sovereignty, identity and stop illegal
immigration... Whilst the devastating attacks in Southport on Monday were a
catalyst, the commonality amongst the protest groups appears to be focused on
three key areas: the desire to protect Britain's sovereignty; the need to uphold
British values and in order to do this, stop illegal immigration...
"The government must acknowledge what is causing this civil unrest in order to
prevent it. Arresting people, or creating violent disorder units, is treating
the symptom and not the cause. The questions these people want answering; what
is the government's solution to mass uncontrolled immigration? How are the new
Labour government going to uphold and build on British values? This is the
biggest challenge facing Sir Kier Starmer's government...
"We all need to work together to stop this mindless criminal behaviour committed
by a small number of people, whilst understanding the views of those attending
rallies who feel strongly but don't cause disorder."
Using the ongoing protests across Britain to crack down -- one-sidedly -- on
basic rights, Starmer has successfully exacerbated racial conflict, inflamed
tensions, created division, penalized free speech and neatly sneezed at
legitimate concerns.
*Robert Williams is a researcher based in the United States.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Mohammed Dahlan, Gaza's leader in waiting? - opinion
NEVILLE TELLER/Jerusalem Post/August 12/2024
As an eventual ceasefire deal in Gaza draws closer, the media speculate whether
Mohammed Dahlan’s moment is about to arrive.
Will Dahlan soon find himself paraphrasing Winston Churchill on the day he was
chosen to lead Britain’s government in World War II: “I felt as if I were
walking with destiny, and that all my past life had been but a preparation for
this hour and for this trial...”?
Whether or not this is on the horizon, for the present Dahlan is content to play
the well-known political game – whatever high office you are aiming for, swear
that nothing is further from your thoughts.
On July 24, Dahlan posted the following on his X account, referring to himself
in the plural as the royal “we”: “Various scenarios have been repeatedly
presented or leaked to the media regarding the arrangements for the “day after”
Israel’s devastating war on Gaza. Sometimes our name is used to thrill
audiences" "Therefore and once again, we reiterate that... Our highest priority
now is to end the war. We will not support any choice that has not been reached
based on Palestinian national understandings [achieved] through a transparent
democratic process... I have repeatedly refused to accept any security,
governmental, or executive role," he continued.
Rumors were obviously already rife. Two days after his post, these were given
substance in a long article in The Wall Street Journal. “The question of who
will govern Gaza,” it began, “has plagued efforts to end Israel’s nine-month war
to destroy Hamas... Some negotiators are increasingly drawn to Mohammed Dahlan
as a temporary solution to a dilemma facing postwar Gaza.”
The Wall Street Journal goes on to quote Israeli political analysts who have
described Dahlan as a rare Palestinian leader who is independent of both Hamas
and the Palestinian Authority (PA), making him someone with whom the Israeli
government could potentially work. Dahlan was born in 1961 in Khan Yunis in Gaza
and, as a teenager, helped set up the Fatah Youth Movement. In his 20s he was
arrested by the Israeli authorities more than once for political activism, but
never for terrorist activities. He put his time in Israeli prisons to good use
by learning Hebrew, which he speaks fluently.
After the Oslo Accords in the early 1990s, Dahlan was chosen to head the
Preventive Security Force in Gaza. Building up a force of 20,000 men, he became
one of the most powerful of Palestinian leaders.
It was during this period that he was formally tarred with the terrorist brush.
In November 2000, on the basis of convincing evidence, Dahlan and his deputy,
Rashid Abu Shadak – who has a less savory background – were accused of being
behind the bombing of an Israeli school bus that killed two adults and wounded
several children. Israel’s then-prime minister, Ehud Olmert, ordered the bombing
of Dahlan’s Gaza headquarters in reprisal. GAZA HAD been nicknamed “Dahlanistan,”
reflecting the extent of his authority, but in 1997 it emerged that he had been
diverting taxes to his personal bank account. That incident and its consequences
seem to have affected him profoundly.
Dahlan openly denounced the PA and Hamas for corruption and crime.
In 2001, he began denouncing corruption in the PA and calling for reform. A year
later he resigned and, portraying himself as an outspoken critic of PA president
Yasser Arafat, repeatedly tried to campaign on an anti-corruption and reform
ticket. As a result, Dahlan and his followers won over most of the Fatah
sections in Gaza.
The 2006 Palestinian elections saw Hamas gain a majority in Gaza. Dahlan called
their election victory a “disaster,” and in January 2007 held the biggest-ever
rally of Fatah supporters in Gaza, where he denounced Hamas as “a bunch of
murderers and thieves.” His instinct was vindicated six months later when Hamas
staged a bloody coup in Gaza, seized power, and expelled those Fatah officials
it had not murdered. Years later, it was revealed that Dahlan played a key role
in an abortive US plot to remove Hamas from power.
In October 2007, the Bush administration reportedly pressured PA President
Mahmoud Abbas to appoint Dahlan as his deputy. Instead, perceiving Dahlan as his
rival for office, Abbas publicly charged him, in June 2011, with financial
corruption and murder and expelled him from Fatah’s ruling body. Abbas went
further and accused him of murdering Arafat – though he never charged him
formally.
Today, Dahlan’s international influence extends far and wide. He has lived in
the UAE for many years and is an adviser to the crown prince, Mohammed bin Zayed
al Nahyan. He has ties with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the Syrian
opposition, and is closely connected with Serbia and Montenegro.
The WSJ claims that Hamas has softened its opposition to Dahlan, indicating to
mediators in recent weeks that it could accept him as part of an interim
solution to help end the war. Dahlan has said he now speaks to Hamas regularly.
QUOTING ARAB officials, the WSJ has its own vision of the “day after.” An option
currently under consideration sees Dahlan overseeing a Palestinian security body
comprising 2,500 personnel working in coordination with an international force,
once Israeli troops eventually pull out of Gaza.
The Palestinian body would be vetted by the US, Israel, and Egypt, and wouldn’t
have clear loyalties to the PA, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu doesn’t
want controlling Gaza. If successful, the force could expand to help with the
reconstruction of Gaza.
Polls of Palestinian public opinion show little enthusiasm for Dahlan as a
potential leader. The latest, taken in June, reveals the favorite by far is
Marwan Barghouti, who is serving five life sentences in an Israeli jail on
charges of murder. He received 39% of the popular vote. Some way behind him was
Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas political leader who was assassinated on July 31.
Dahlan’s popularity at 8% was found to be about equal to that of Yahya Sinwar,
now both military and political leader of Hamas, and currently hiding in the
tunnel system that crisscrosses Gaza.
If Dahlan, as he claims in his July 24 social media posting, is depending on a
“transparent democratic process” to project him to power, he would seem to have
a long time to wait. He is far more likely to find himself in a leadership
position by way of an appointment agreed between the nations engaged in
negotiating a ceasefire and the release of the hostages.
*The writer is the Middle East correspondent for Eurasia Review. His latest book
is Trump and the Holy Land: 2016-2020. Follow him at: a-mid-east-journal.blogspot.com.
Cutting the Gordian Knots
Charles Chartouni/This is Beirut/August 12/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/08/133221/
The ongoing wars in Gaza, South Lebanon and South-West Syria are quite
perplexing since we have a hard time imagining their outcomes. What makes these
concatenated cycles of violence intractable and open to various entanglements
and invariable destructiveness? Aside from the centennial legacy bequeathed by
the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the problematic nature of territorial
statehood in the Arab political culture, the intractability of “social
protracted conflicts” owes, mainly, to their rotating instrumentalizations and
pliability to power politics and ideological mystification. However, critical
are the issues of State formation in the post-Ottoman imperial era. The
difficulties are primarily related to the inability of the pre-State actors to
adjust to the norms of territorial and constitutional statehood, negotiated
conflict resolution, consensual politics and constant dependence on foreign
interventions to consolidate political and ideological entrenchments.
The indisputable control of the Palestinian political scenery by the Iranian
regime, far from being an accidental feature, reflects an enduring trait which
characterized its politics throughout the centennial. Palestinians, who have
forged their national identity against the backdrop of their conflict with
pre-national Jewish community (Yishuv) and the rising Israeli nation, have
failed to eradicate the nascent national community to overcome the denial of the
Israeli matter of fact, and have traded their national autonomy for a calamitous
pattern of cultivated dependencies.
Whereas, the Jewish pre-national constituencies (Yishuv) and the emerging State
of Israel were busy building their institutions, coping with the disastrous
plight of European Jewry after the Holocaust, fighting for their survival,
engaging in conversation with the Arab environment at different stages, defining
and redefining the nexus between jewishness and nationhood, the scope of Zionism
and post-Zionism, and the norms of integration of the “Arab-Israeli” citizens
(20/100 of the State of Israel), while negotiating with the various Palestinian
constituents. Unfortunately, mutual distrust, extremism and cyclical violence
took over and the conflict reverted back to an earlier stage of violence and
absence of political horizon. The critical questions of mutual acknowledgment
and moral reciprocity were at the very roots of the institutionalized political
impasses and violence. The presumptions of moral righteousness and political
absolutism are not quite functional from a conflict resolution standpoint.
This short historical notice accounts for the divergent political fortunes and
their impact on the respective national trajectories, the damnations of a
national conflict which failed to overcome the pitfalls of negationism,
political nihilism and zero-sum game scenarios. International resolutions and
mediations were deliberately subverted and brought down to zero as if this rich
legacy has never existed. Hence, Palestinians shifted back to senseless
radicalism and alternate power politics, and Israelis, notwithstanding, their
political affiliations have given up on the Two State solution and so have the
Palestinians.
We are witnessing a dramatic turnaround whereby the Palestinian agenda is
sublated and categorically subsumed under heavily loaded regional and
international power politics. The political and moral expropriation of the
Palestinians by the Iranian power broker has put them with the Lebanese, the
Syrians and the Yemenis on a destructive political course, whereby violence and
open-ended conflicts have undermined the chances of political stability in their
respective countries. Paradoxically enough, Iranians have forced their agenda on
the Islamic conference, at a time when its members fully realize its ambivalence
and “perverse effects.” Israel is subsequently the only regional player able to
check the Iranian power drive and balance the pendulum in a highly volatile
region.
The double assassination of the Iranian mandated operators is an open challenge
to the Iranian power politics and to the imposed strategic equation. One wonders
how the US led-negotiations are likely to change or amend the course of Iranian
power politics engaging in subversion politics, and converting geopolitical
platforms into levers of political destabilization and unrestrained civil wars.
The very cooptation of Yahya Sinwar as the heir to Ismail Haniyeh is quite
indicative of the overpowering influence of the Iranian regime and the total
subservience of Palestinian politics. We have a hard time guessing how
Palestinian priorities, under the current circumstances, are likely to supplant
Iranian strategic priorities and the Iranian regime survival imperatives.
Axiomatically, the survival of the delegitimized Iranian regime depends on its
ability to destabilize the regional order, to militarize its nuclear energy, to
institutionalize chaos and to widen the expanse of security and political
wastelands. Palestinians are once again victims of their strategic blindness,
pliability to power politics and inability to build a coherent and consensual
platform to engage their Israeli nemesis. The latest Palestinian meeting
summoned by Beijing has proven the flimsiness and the inexpediency of Chinese
diplomacy. Palestinians are more disunited than ever and dramatically distracted
away from their political priorities, and Israelis are, by and large, quite
apprehensive about the outcomes of a negotiated solution. Sadly enough, the late
spate of military and political events sends us back to the dark realities of
the Middle East, adrift and with no moral compasses and strategic anchors.