English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For August 03/2024
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
Death has been swallowed up in victory.’ ‘Where, O
death, is your victory? Where, O death, is your sting?’ The sting of death is
sin, and the power of sin is the law.
First Letter to the Corinthians 15/51-58/:"Listen, I will tell
you a mystery! We will not all die, but we will all be changed, in a moment, in
the twinkling of an eye, at the last trumpet. For the trumpet will sound, and
the dead will be raised imperishable, and we will be changed. For this
perishable body must put on imperishability, and this mortal body must put on
immortality. When this perishable body puts on imperishability, and this mortal
body puts on immortality, then the saying that is written will be fulfilled:
‘Death has been swallowed up in victory.’ ‘Where, O death, is your victory?
Where, O death, is your sting?’ The sting of death is sin, and the power of sin
is the law. But thanks be to God, who gives us the victory through our Lord
Jesus Christ. Therefore, my beloved, be steadfast, immovable, always excelling
in the work of the Lord, because you know that in the Lord your labour is not in
vain.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on August 02-03/2024
Firing Alain Aoun from Aoun-Bassil
Commercial Company/Hell, its Fire, and Worms Await the Demonic Son-in-Law Bassil
and All of His Judas-Like Followers/Elias Bejjani/August 02, 2024
Lebanon has right to defend its land amid systematic Israeli escalation, Mikati
tells army officers
Hezbollah resumes steady rocket, artillery fire against Israel
UK urges deescalation on Blue Line as ministers visit Lebanon
Report: Netanyahu says ready for talks with Hamas, Hezbollah
Hezbollah says fired 'dozens' of rockets at north Israel
Hezbollah resumes operations after Shukur's funeral
MP Alain Aoun officially expelled from FPM
Mikati: We are advocates of peace and we stress our right to defend our land
Bassil says can't stand idly by as Israel strikes Beirut, kills children
Hezbollah’s Retaliation Options and the U.S. Diplomatic Role/Hanin Ghaddar/The
Washington Institute/August 01/2024
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on August 02-03/2024
Pentagon tells Israel it will adjust
US troops in Middle East
Mourners bury Hamas chief Haniyeh in Qatar as more escalation looms over the
Middle East
Biden Tells Netanyahu to Accept Truce in ‘Very Direct’ Call
Israel-Hamas war latest: International calls for cease-fire grow after
assassinations in the Mideast
IDF claims journalist killed was Hamas operative, Al Jazeera denies allegation
as ‘baseless’
Israel advances most West Bank settlements in decades: EU
Haniyeh's assassination sheds light on long history of alleged Israeli attacks
in Iran
Biden says US committed to defend Israel against 'all threats from Iran'
Report: Negotiations to resume soon despite Haniyeh's assassination
France tells nationals visiting Iran to leave 'as soon as possible'
Russia pulled back weapons shipment to Houthis amid US and Saudi pressure
US warns a famine in Sudan is on pace to be the deadliest in decades as the
world looks elsewhere
Australian inquiry blames Israel failings for fatal drone attack on Gaza aid
convoy
Turkey blocks access to Instagram, in response to removal of posts on Haniyeh
Titles For The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from miscellaneous
sources on August 02-03/2024
Editorial: The end for terror masters: Death comes for Hezbollah’s Fuad Shukr
and Hamas’ Ismail Haniyeh/New York Daily News Editorial Board, New York Daily
News/August 2, 2024
Will Two Attacks Kill the Gaza Talks and Iran-Hezbollah Deterrence?/Dennis Ross,
David Makovsky, Neomi Neumann, Farzin Nadimi//The Washington Institute/Aug 1,
2024
Countering the Islamic State's Gendered Violence and Minority Persecution/Pari
Ibrahim, Devorah Margolin, Gina Vale/The Washington Institute/Aug 1, 2024
Europe's Recipe for Disaster: The Von der Leyen Program/Drieu Godefridi/
Gatestone Institute./August 2, 2024
Harris has work to do if she wants to be US president/Dalia Al-Aqidi/Arab
News/August 02, 2024
Realpolitik guiding Turkish-Armenian normalization process/Sinem Cengiz/Arab
News/August 02, 2024
Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on August 02-03/2024
Firing Alain Aoun from Aoun-Bassil Commercial Company/Hell, its Fire, and
Worms Await the Demonic Son-in-Law Bassil and All of His Judas-Like Followers
Elias Bejjani/August 02, 2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/08/132768/
Jebran Bassil, are you truly aware of the consequences of your evil actions,
deviant stances, unpatriotic, and unfaithful piles of Nonsense?
If you still have even a grain of faith, remember that human life is a mere
temporary gift, and when the Lord retrieves His gift, all that is earthly
remains on the earth.
When human beings move to the afterlife, whoever they may be, will take nothing
with them but their deeds.
Your deeds, as you are 100% aware, are merely heaps and sacks of sins, demonic
acts, greed, lack of loyalty, narcissism, ingratitude, betrayal, and the worship
of money and power.
We ask, how can you justify to your Lord on the day you stand before Him at the
final judgment? And presently, to those of your followers who still have a grain
of sense in their skulls, how can you justify standing alongside the enemies of
Lebanon, its identity, its entity, its history, and the blood of the martyrs?
You and your uncle have reached the point of firing Alain Aoun from your crooked
commercial company. It is truly a time of misery, drought, demons, and
pseudo-men!!!
The author, Elias Bejjani, is a Lebanese expatriate activist
Author’s Email: Phoenicia@hotmail.com
Author’s Website:
http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com
Lebanon has right to defend its land amid systematic
Israeli escalation, Mikati tells army officers
NAJIA HOUSSARI/Arab News/August 02, 2024
BEIRUT: Lebanon is determined to defend its land and sovereignty, caretaker
Prime Minister Najib Mikati said on Friday. “We will not hesitate to do so, no
matter the sacrifices,” he said. Mikati described the regional developments as
“worrisome,” signaling increased danger levels.He said that “nothing indicates
that Israeli arrogance will stop.”Mikati met with senior officers in the
Lebanese army command and cautioned that “the regional developments are
concerning.”He stressed that the army “remains the firm guarantee for the unity
of Lebanon, its territory, people, and establishments, making it a national
obligation for everyone to unite around the army institution.”Mikati said that
in response to the ongoing and severe Israeli escalation, “we affirm our right
to defend our land, sovereignty, and dignity using all available means.”He
stated that he had informed “friendly and brotherly countries that we are
advocates of peace, not war. “We seek permanent stability through Israel’s
commitment to implementing UN Resolution 1701 in all its provisions. No Israeli
aggression will deter us from that.”
Mikati emphasized the importance of deploying the army in cooperation with the
UN Interim Force in Lebanon to prevent violations of “our internationally
recognized borders. This is essential for ensuring stability and security for
the people in the south.”He added: “Our right to utilize the resources in our
waters is absolute and not open to negotiation.”Mikati also met with the
ambassadors of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (the US,
France, the UK, China, and Russia) and the representatives of the non-permanent
member states present in Lebanon (Algeria, Japan, Switzerland, and South Korea).
The meeting came against the backdrop of escalating confrontations between
Israel and Hezbollah, which reached their peak on Tuesday with the assassination
of senior Hezbollah leader Fuad Shukr in the heart of the southern suburb of
Beirut. Mikati’s media office stated that the assembled ambassadors affirmed
Lebanon’s “commitment to implementing UN resolutions, especially Resolution
1701, as a top priority in the region.”Lebanon has also filed a complaint with
the UN Security Council against Israel for its aggression against the southern
suburb of Beirut. It said Israel’s dangerous escalation affected a densely
populated residential area in violation of international law and the UN Charter.
In the southern town of Shamaa, a funeral procession was held for a
Syrian mother and her three children — Fatima Al-Raja Al-Hajj and her sons
Suleiman, Mohammed, and Ahmed Al-Hajj — who were killed in an Israeli airstrike
on their home on Thursday night. The death toll of Syrian civilians who have
been killed during the confrontations in the south since Oct. 8 has risen to 18.
The airstrike coincided with Hezbollah holding the funeral procession for
Shukr in the southern suburb of Beirut. Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan
Nasrallah vowed on Thursday evening during Shukr’s funeral to respond to his
assassination. He said that Israel “should expect the revenge of the honorable”
and that “we have entered a new phase on all support fronts (for Hamas in the
Gaza Strip).”He said Israel “has crossed red lines and has no idea of the kind
of aggression it has committed.”The Israeli army on Friday launched airstrikes
and targeted border towns with artillery fire, including Rab El-Thalathine,
Dhayra, and Blida, as well as the outskirts of Naqoura and Tayr Harfa. Hezbollah
announced a series of targets that were within the rules of engagement. It
targeted the deployment of Israeli soldiers in the Dhayra site, the Al-Sammaqa
site in the occupied Lebanese Kfarchouba Hills and the Bayad Blida site with
artillery shells. The party launched dozens of
Katyusha rockets on the Matzuva settlement in the wake of the Israeli attack on
Shamaa.
Hezbollah resumes steady rocket, artillery
fire against Israel
Reuters/August 2, 2024
Hezbollah forces on Friday resumed rocket and artillery attacks against Israel,
ending the lull along the border following Israel's killing of the Lebanese
group's military commander in Beirut. Hezbollah said
it had fired a surface-to-air missile at an Israeli warplane flying in Lebanese
airspace overnight and forced it to turn back. Its forces also carried out two
artillery attacks and two rocket strikes at military positions in northern
Israel, it said. The Israeli military said in a statement it had successfully
intercepted an aerial target coming from Lebanon into the Israeli-occupied Golan
Heights. Israeli airstrikes and artillery fire hit
several villages in southern Lebanon on Friday, according to Lebanese state
media, a day after an Israeli strike killed at least five Syrian migrant workers
in southern Lebanon, according to medics. The Israeli
military also said it had hit two Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said in an address on Thursday
that he had ordered calm along the border following the Israeli airstrike in
Beirut on Tuesday that killed military commander Fuad Shukr out of respect for
the victims and to consider what the next steps should be.
The strike on the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahiyeh in Beirut's southern suburbs
also killed an Iranian military adviser and five civilians. Nasrallah said
Hezbollah would retaliate but it would need to study what their response would
be, and would otherwise resume its usual military operations against Israel.
Hezbollah and the Israeli military have been trading fire for nearly 10 months
in parallel with the Gaza war, with exchanges mostly limited to the border area.
But strikes since last week have threatened to tip the conflict into a
full-scale regional war. Israel and the United States
have accused Hezbollah of killing 12 youths in a July 27 rocket attack on the
Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, a claim Hezbollah has denied. The United Nations
peacekeeping force in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, told Reuters on Friday it had
not investigated the incident as the Israeli-occupied Golan is outside its
mandated area of operations.
UK urges deescalation on Blue Line as ministers visit Lebanon
Naharnet/August 01/2024
UK Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, accompanied by Defense Secretary John Healey,
ended a one-day visit to Lebanon yesterday, Thursday, the British embassy said.
This was Lammy’s first official visit to Lebanon as Foreign Secretary, following
his call with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati in his first week of office.
The Foreign Secretary called for “de-escalation along the Blue Line and the need
for a diplomatic solution based on U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701,” the
embassy said in a statement. Lammy and Healey also met with Speaker of
Parliament Nabih Berri, caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib and
Lebanese Army Commander General Joseph Aoun. Their
discussions focused on tensions across the Lebanese southern border with Israel
and the wider situation in the region. The visit is part of the British Foreign
Secretary’s regional visits over the past month, in which he reiterated the
British Government's call for “de-escalation in the region, an immediate
ceasefire in Gaza, the release of hostages and getting humanitarian aid into
Gaza.” “This is a worrying time for people in Lebanon:
they have been through a lot in the past five years, including the terrible port
explosion that claimed so many lives. I’m here on the ground meeting with
influential figures to call for immediate de-escalation in the region,” Lammy
said. “I've raised my concerns about the on-going tensions between Lebanon and
Israel and have highlighted the UK’s determination to avoid miscalculation,” he
added. Healey for his part said “de-escalation must be our primary focus as this
region stands at a crossroads.”“The loss of innocent life in recent weeks and
months is unbearable. This has to end. All sides must step back from conflict
and step up diplomacy. We will work with important partners like Qatar as our
government leads a renewed push for peace,” he added. British Ambassador to
Lebanon Hamish Cowell meanwhile said that “this is a very important visit” by
Lammy and Healey. “The situation across the Blue Line
remains fragile and escalation is in no one's interest. In his meetings, the
Foreign Secretary stressed the need for de-escalation and a diplomatic solution
based on UNSCR 1701,” Cowell said. “The joint visit
reaffirms the UK's long-standing commitment and support for Lebanon's security
and stability, including as a steadfast partner to the Lebanese Armed Forces,”
he added.
Report: Netanyahu says ready for talks with Hamas,
Hezbollah
Naharnet/August 01/2024
Two days after the assassination of Hezbollah’s top military commander Fouad
Shukur and Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
informed international mediators that “Israel has become readier to engage in a
deal over Gaza,” a media report said. “Bring me the other party so that I talk
to them over the deal!” the pro-Hezbollah al-Akhbar newspaper quoted Netanyahu
as saying. “Secondly, he asked his Western allies -- the Americans, Britons and
others -- to inform Lebanon that he is ready to immediately engage in
negotiations to settle the issue of the disputed border points, on the condition
that the issue takes place as part of a political-security agreement that would
create new arrangements in south Lebanon,” the daily said.
As for the Palestinian part, Israel has suggested that all previous
papers be amended and that an intensive discussion be launched over “a deal
based on a prior agreement over a new administration for the Gaza Strip that
would be responsible for compelling Hamas not to return to taking up arms,” the
newspaper added. As for Lebanon’s file, Israel “has acknowledged that Hezbollah
will have its retaliation to the assassination of the commander Shukur, but it
wants the mediators to warn Hezbollah that the response should not be of the
type that would oblige it to make a counter-response,” al-Akhbar reported.
“Mediators have talked to Lebanese officials about the possibility that
Hezbollah carry out a rational response that would allow for moving instantly to
negotiations on a deal leading to a ceasefire on Lebanon’s front,” the daily
said.
Hezbollah says fired 'dozens' of rockets at north Israel
Agence France Presse/August 01/2024
Hezbollah fired overnight anti-aircraft missiles on Israeli warplanes in south
Lebanon, forcing them to retreat beyond the border.
The group had launched rockets at northern Israel Thursday "in response" to a
deadly Israeli strike in south Lebanon -- the group's first attack after Israel
killed a top commander earlier this week. Hezbollah said in a statement that it
"launched dozens of Katyusha rockets... in response to the Israeli enemy's
attack on... (the southern village of Shamaa) that killed a number of
civilians". The Israeli military said that shortly
after the rocket fire, the air force "struck the Hezbollah launcher from which
the projectiles were launched". Earlier Thursday, the
Lebanese health ministry said four Syrians were killed in an Israeli strike on
the south, where Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged near-daily fire since the
Gaza war began in October. "The health ministry announces... four Syrian
nationals were martyred" in an "Israeli strike" on the southern village of
Shamaa, it said in a statement. The ministry said the
toll might rise once DNA tests had been carried out.
The strike also wounded five Lebanese nationals, it added.
Emergency services told AFP that the dead were farmer workers and part of
the same family. Plumes of smoke billowed from the site of the strike, which
heavily damaged two nearby buildings and burnt a vehicle to a crisp, a
photographer contributing to AFP reported. The attack was Hezbollah's first
since an Israeli air strike killed its top commander Fouad Shukur on Tuesday
evening, with leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah saying operations would resume on
Friday morning. Nasrallah warned his group was bound to respond to the killing
of Shukur. His death was followed hours later Wednesday, by the killing of
Hezbollah ally Hamas's chief Ismail Haniyeh in a strike in Tehran, which Iran
and Hamas have blamed on Israel. Israel has declined to comment on his killing.
The violence since October has killed at least 542 people on the Lebanese side,
most of them fighters but also including 114 civilians, according to an AFP
tally. At least 22 soldiers and 25 civilians have been killed on the Israeli
side, including in the annexed Golan Heights, according to army figures.
Hezbollah resumes operations after Shukur's funeral
Naharnet/August 01/2024
Hezbollah targeted Friday Israeli soldiers in the Dhaira post with artillery
shells and a post in the occupied Kfarshouba Hills, as it resumed its operations
against Israel, three days after Israel killed a top Hezbollah commander.
Israeli drones meanwhile raided the southern towns of Rab Tlatine and Dhaira.
Hezbollah fired overnight anti-aircraft missiles on Israeli warplanes in south
Lebanon, forcing them to retreat beyond the border and launched rockets at
northern Israel Thursday in response to a deadly Israeli strike in south
Lebanon. Thursday's attack was the first since Israel killed top commander Fouad
Shukur on Tuesday evening. The commander's killing has
triggered fears of a cycle of escalation that could spark a regional war that
has been narrowly avoided over the past 10 months. The
violence since October has killed at least 542 people on the Lebanese side, most
of them fighters but also including 114 civilians. At least 22 soldiers and 25
civilians have been killed on the Israeli side, including in the annexed Golan
Heights.
MP Alain Aoun officially expelled from FPM
Naharnet/August 01/2024
MP Alain Aoun of the Strong Lebanon bloc has been officially expelled from the
Free Patriotic Movement, the FPM’s media department said on Friday.
The FPM said the decision follows “two recommendations issued by the
FPM’s Council of Elders that is led by (former) president Michel Aoun.”The FPM
said the MP was expelled for failing to appear before the Council of Elders
several times, violating the FPM’s bylaws and breaching the Movement’s decisions
and directions on the political, organizational and media levels.
The FPM also said that Aoun had refused to abide by the Movement’s
decision to vote for Jihad Azour in the June 2023 presidential election session.
Mikati: We are advocates of peace and we stress our right
to defend our land
Naharnet/August 01/2024
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Friday stressed that “in the face of
the systematic and dangerous Israeli escalation,” Lebanon “can only stress its
right to defend its land, sovereignty and dignity with all means available.”“We
have informed brotherly and friendly countries that we are advocates of peace
not war, because we are seeking sustainable stability through regaining the
occupied parts of our dear south and compelling the Israeli enemy to implement
U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 with all its stipulations,” Mikati said,
during a visit to the Army Command on the occasion of Army Day. “All Israeli
attacks will not deter us from that,” the premier emphasized.
Bassil says can't stand idly by as Israel strikes Beirut,
kills children
Naharnet/August 01/2024
Free Patriotic movement chief Jebran Bassil said the FPM cannot stand idly by as
Israel strikes Beirut and kills children. Bassil's comment, late Thursday, came
two days after an Israeli air strike killed a Hezbollah top commander in Haret
Hreik. The raid on the Beirut suburb, an overcrowded residential area, killed
siblings Amira and Hassan Fadlallah as well as three women and injured dozens of
civilians. Bassil criticized the "selective sovereignty" of some parties, in an
apparent reference to the Lebanese Forces. "We can't be human and not feel sad
when we see Lebanese and Palestinian children dying in a brutal and inhumane way
in Beirut and Gaza," Bassil said. "We cannot call ourselves sovereign if we see
our homeland threatened by an enemy warning to send us back to the Stone Age and
we do not condemn it," he added. "We cannot be neutral, we cannot reject war if
Israel started it."
يارات حزب الله للرد والدور الدبلوماسي الأميركي
حنين غدار/معهد واشنطن/02 آب 2024
Hezbollah’s Retaliation Options and the U.S. Diplomatic Role
Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/August 01/2024
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/2024/08/132755/
Hezbollah’s Retaliation Options and the U.S. Diplomatic
Role
Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/August 01/2024
Regardless of how the group responds to Israel’s latest leadership strike, its
desperation to stop the bleeding will create big diplomatic opportunities for
the United States and its partners—if done right.
This week’s targeted strike on Fuad Shukr was a big blow to Hezbollah and Iran’s
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). Not only did they lose their most
valuable militia commander during the current phase of escalation with Israel,
they also confirmed just how exposed the group is to Israel’s intelligence
apparatus. Even as Hezbollah was still looking for Shukr’s body among the
rubble, Hamas political leader Ismael Haniyeh was killed by an attack in Tehran,
further heightening the stakes and increasing the pressure for a response.
Yet Hezbollah’s intelligence vulnerabilities and Israel’s growing boldness could
also have the opposite effect, prompting the group and its allies to think twice
about whether and how they will escalate. This dilemma—which was noticeable in
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s speech earlier today—should inform the U.S.
response to the latest crisis brewing between Israel and the Iranian “axis.”
What Did Nasrallah Say?
When Nasrallah delivered a televised speech during Shukr’s funeral in Beirut, he
promised a military response of some sort but did not say that it will be
coordinated with other actors such as the IRGC or the Yemeni Houthis. In fact,
he seemed to deliberately avoid making that link or even mentioning Haniyeh’s
assassination and Iran’s potential response. Although he spoke of a “new phase
of the conflict where all fronts will be open to war,” he also made clear that a
decision on how to retaliate has not been made yet: “We are angry, but we are
wise. Our response could come from anywhere and anytime...We are searching for a
response that is both strong and calculated.”
Perhaps most tellingly, Nasrallah noted that Hezbollah will go back to the usual
“rules of engagement” along the border with Israel the next day, reiterating
that their months-long clashes will not stop until a ceasefire is reached with
Hamas in the Gaza Strip. In a sense, then, he gave the international community a
glaring reason to redouble its efforts toward a Gaza hostage deal. Does this
mean Hezbollah is deterred, or is a response still coming? Multiple factors and
calculations will determine the answer.
Response Scenarios
In the days leading up to Israel’s strike, Hezbollah’s first instinct was to
falsely deny responsibility for its tragic July 27 rocket attack on Majdal
Shams, presumably in the hope of sparing itself from a near-certain military
response for killing civilians. When this gambit seemed destined to fail,
Hezbollah prodded Lebanese foreign minister Abdallah Bou Habib to tell
interviewers on July 28 that the group was willing to withdraw its military
formations north of the Litani River. Previously, Hezbollah had refused to
negotiate on this point—a core requirement of UN Security Council Resolution
1701—or discuss any other border demarcation issues until a ceasefire is reached
in Gaza.
Shortly before Shukr was hit, the group’s messaging changed yet again, spelling
out a formula for how Hezbollah would respond to specific attacks and drawing a
few red lines for Israel. Specifically, the group warned that a strike that
harmed Lebanese civilians would be met with a strike against Israeli civilians;
a strike on Beirut would be met with a strike against Tel Aviv; a strike against
the group’s Dahiya stronghold would be met with a strike against an Israeli
city; and a strike on Beirut’s airport would be met with a strike on Israel’s
Ben Gurion Airport. The group added that any attacks against military targets
would prompt Hezbollah to attack Israeli military targets.
One can assume that these warnings were intended more as deterrence messaging
than as a blueprint for the military strategy Hezbollah will actually implement.
Coupled with Nasrallah’s speech, however, they indicate that two scenarios are
most likely.
The first is a delayed response, meaning Hezbollah would add Shukr’s death to
the long list of Israeli offenses for which it has promised eventual
retaliation. Alternatively, the group may decide to act right away by hitting a
military target deeper inside Israel rather than confining its attacks to the
north or the Golan Heights. This option would allow Hezbollah to register a
distinct response to the Beirut strike without crossing the threshold it
believes would lead to all-out war. A related option is to launch attacks
involving more advanced weapons. For example, Shukr oversaw the IRGC’s
precision-guided missile program, so Hezbollah and Tehran could decide to use
such munitions against Israeli military targets for the first time.
Whichever option it chooses, nothing has drastically changed in Hezbollah’s
calculations. The group still cannot afford all-out war with Israel—as Nasrallah
has repeatedly stated since last year, the Gaza war is not their war. Moreover,
Tehran still wants to preserve Hezbollah’s advanced weapons and most valuable
military assets as an insurance policy. As long as the Iranian regime and its
nuclear program are not under direct threat, the group will not be asked to
sacrifice its top assets in a showdown with Israel. Losing Shukr and hundreds of
other commanders and fighters to Israeli strikes has been a severe test for
Hezbollah in the past few months, but total war in Lebanon would increase the
damage exponentially. Without Shukr and other slain military planners, the group
may not even be able to achieve the defensive “victory” it notched during the
previous war in 2006. And if by chance it survived the next war, it would lose
all of its advanced weapons and be forced to rebuild its massive arsenal in a
much worse economic and budgetary environment than 2006.
Although Shukr was a big loss—certainly bigger than Haniyeh—both Hezbollah and
the IRGC seem to view it as a tolerable cost of maintaining pressure on Israel.
Each of them has suffered high-profile losses in the past without major military
retaliation against the United States or Israel, including former Hezbollah
secretary-general Abbas Musawi, military commanders Imad Mughniyah and Mustafa
Badreddine, and IRGC Qods Force leader Qasem Soleimani. Notably, however, both
parties did eventually answer some of these leadership strikes in deadly
fashion, including a ballistic missile strike on American forces in Iraq and a
mass-casualty terrorist bombing in Argentina.
Regardless of how Hezbollah tailors its specific response, the group is clearly
desperate to stop the greater losses it has suffered during the Gaza war. This
desperation creates big diplomatic opportunities for the United States and its
partners—if done right.
A Chance for Diplomacy?
When Hezbollah indicated its willingness to withdraw north of the Litani, it was
probably bluffing—after all, Resolution 1701 cannot be implemented without a
viable enforcement mechanism. Yet the message does suggest that the group will
compromise if it fears that more serious pressure will be brought to bear.
In the immediate term, a limited military response against Israel seems
likely—one that Hezbollah and Tehran hope Jerusalem will tolerate. After that,
however, the latest spike in the conflict could pass, since the group now knows
that Israeli leaders are willing to cross its red lines. This period of caution
is where diplomacy could play an important role:
The United States should warn Hezbollah that if it does not agree to a
diplomatic solution soon, then Israel is ready to hit additional senior targets.
Crucially, Washington should make clear that a Lebanon deal must proceed
regardless of what happens with the repeatedly delayed Gaza negotiations.
Hezbollah officials believe that the United States and Israel are aligning their
recent military actions to a certain extent—American forces reportedly hit
Iran-backed militia targets in Iraq at least twice after the attacks on Shukr
and Haniyeh, and the Biden administration has publicly reassured Israel that it
will receive U.S. support if attacked. This perceived alignment is perhaps the
strongest deterrent Washington has against Hezbollah escalation, so it should
reinforce this view as much as possible, at least until a ceasefire is reached.
The U.S. Navy recently sent multiple warships close to Lebanon’s waters, and
some of them should be kept there even if this tense episode passes. Such
deployments serve as a very strong symbolic “no” to Hezbollah.
To increase Hezbollah’s fears of U.S.-Israeli alignment, Washington should try
to enlist partners such as France and Saudi Arabia to heighten the deterrent
effect. For instance, Paris could use its leverage in Beirut to put more
pressure on Hezbollah’s domestic allies via tough diplomacy and sanctions. And
although the Saudis largely disengaged from Lebanon years ago, they might be
convinced to reenter the scene if Washington reminds them that Hezbollah has
been filling the void with its own Sunni allies and bad actors like Hamas.
If negotiations with Hezbollah proceed, the United States should put more
pressure on the group’s many weak points, including its exposure to Israel’s
intelligence; its substantial loss of commanders, infrastructure, and weapons
facilities; and the social pressure it faces from displaced residents of
southern Lebanon. In particular, Washington should impose more sanctions on
Hezbollah’s Lebanese political allies, push Beirut to fill the long-vacant
presidency with someone who is actually willing to help the country regain its
sovereignty from Iran, and, most important, ensure that the Central Bank and
other Lebanese financial institutions are helping to obstruct Hezbollah’s cash
flow.
To ensure that a ceasefire does not simply enable Hezbollah to replenish its
fighting forces and command structure, Washington and its partners need to
address the routes and entry points the group uses for weapons smuggling. This
means enforcing Security Council Resolution 1559, demarcating the border with
Syria, and monitoring seaports and Beirut’s airport. Moreover, the presidential
vacuum needs to be filled so that Beirut can establish the functioning
government necessary to overseeing all of the above.
If diplomacy succeeds in reaching a ceasefire in Lebanon, officials should not
stop there. Longer-term policy options should be developed and pursued to
restore Lebanon’s sovereignty in war and peace decisions and prevent Hezbollah
from regaining its strength and confidence. Merely implementing Resolution 1701
is not enough—it must be followed up with sustained political, economic, and
security pressure on Hezbollah, its Lebanese political allies, and its regional
partners.
**Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and
co-creator of its interactive map tracking clashes along the Israel-Lebanon
border.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on August 02-03/2024
Pentagon tells Israel it will adjust US troops in Middle East
Arab News/August 02, 2024
WASHINGTON: US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has informed Israel about current
and future changes to US forces in the Middle East, the Pentagon said on Friday,
amid threats from Iran and its allies Hamas and Hezbollah.
The Pentagon added that Austin had not yet made a final decision about which
forces to deploy. Officials have told Reuters that a wide range of options are
under consideration, including aircraft and naval assets.
The expected changes come as the United States is bracing for Iran to make good
on its threats to respond to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh two days
ago in Tehran — one in a series of killings of senior figures in the Palestinian
militant group as the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza rages.
“(Austin) informed the minister of additional measures to include ongoing
and future defensive force posture changes that the department will take to
support the defense of Israel,” Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh told
reporters after a call between Austin and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
“(Austin) committed to minister Gallant and the President (Joe Biden)
committed to (Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu that we will be bolstering our
force protection in the region,” she added. It is
unclear if the US preparations are as intensive as they were prior to April 13,
when Iran launched an attack on Israeli territory with drones and missiles.
At the time, Israel successfully knocked down almost all of the roughly
300 drones and missiles with the help of the US and other allies.
Biden, in a phone call on Thursday with Netanyahu, discussed new US
defensive military deployments to support Israel against threats such as
missiles and drones, the White House said. Iran and
Hamas have both accused Israel of carrying out the killing and have pledged to
retaliate against their foe. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the death
nor denied it. Singh said the United States did not
want to see a wider regional conflict and did not believe an escalation was
inevitable. “I think we are being very direct in our
messaging that certainly we don’t want to see heightened tensions and we do
believe there is an off ramp here and that is that ceasefire deal,” Singh said.
Mourners bury Hamas chief Haniyeh in Qatar as more escalation looms over the
Middle East
Isabel Debre And Julia Frankel/The Associated Press/August 2, 2024
Thousands of mourners converged around the flag-draped coffin of Hamas' slain
political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in the emirate of Qatar on Friday as the
fallout surged from his death in an alleged Israeli attack.
The funeral ceremony in Doha, Qatar's capital, attended by members of
Gaza's militant Hamas and Islamic Jihad groups, as well as Qatari and Iranian
officials, was subdued. But across the Muslim world — from Jordan and Morocco to
Yemen and Somalia — angry crowds waving Palestinian flags rushed out of mosques
after midday Friday prayers, chanting for revenge.
“Let Friday be a day of rage to denounce the assassination,” said Izzat
al-Risheq, a senior Hamas official. Haniyeh had lived in Qatar, along with other
senior members of Hamas’s political leadership.
Following the back-to-back assassinations of Haniyeh in Tehran early on
Wednesday and top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut the evening before,
international diplomats have scrambled to head off a full-fledged regional war.
Iran and its proxies vowed to retaliate. Major airlines canceled flights to Tel
Aviv, Israel and Beirut, Lebanon. Cyprus said Friday
it was preparing for possible mass evacuations of foreign citizens via the
island nation, in case of a wider war. France beefed up security for Jewish
communities nationwide. Poland warned its citizens against traveling to the
Mideast. Pakistan and Turkey lowered their flags to half-staff, prompting Israel
to summon Turkey’s deputy ambassador for a “stern reprimand.”Turkey's foreign
ministry spokesperson Oncu Keceli shot back that Israel “cannot achieve peace by
killing the negotiators” — a reference to Haniyeh's role in the cease-fire talks
— while hundreds of Turks gathered at the historic Hagia Sophia to pay tribute
to the slain Hamas leader as his funeral service got underway in Doha. “We are
sure that his blood will bring out victory, dignity and liberation,” senior
Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya, seen as a possible successor to Haniyeh, said
from the Doha mosque where Haniyeh's coffin was displayed beside that of his
bodyguard who was also killed in the attack in Tehran.
Israel has not confirmed or denied its role in the targeted killing of Haniyeh.
On Thursday, Israel announced that it killed the shadowy leader of Hamas’
military wing, Mohammed Deif, in a July airstrike. Hamas had previously claimed
Deif survived last month’s targeted airstrike in the besieged Gaza Strip, and
has not commented on Israel's more recent claim.
The deadly pattern of Israeli airstrikes and skirmishes has continued in Gaza,
where Palestinian Civil Defense rescuers reported that a barrage of airstrikes
Friday in southern Gaza City killed five Palestinians, including three children.
The Israeli military said it had destroyed rocket launchers used by Hamas hours
earlier. There were no services held for Haniyeh in the enclave, where the
extent of loss has become so overwhelming that Palestinians are forced to inter
their dead family members hurriedly and without last rites.
“We can't memorialize any of our loved ones anymore, funerals are too risky for
fear of being killed in bombing ourselves,” said Ahmed Qamar, 35, displaced in a
shelter in northern Gaza. At least 39,480 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza
in the nearly 10 months since Hamas’ brutal Oct. 7 attack on Israel triggered
the latest Israel-Hamas war. Palestinian health authorities providing the
casualty tolls do not differentiate between civilians and combatants.
Tensions were also running high on Israel’s northern border days after Israel
claimed responsibility for killing Shukr, the Hezbollah commander. On Friday,
Hezbollah claimed a series of rocket and artillery attacks on Israel, causing a
fire but no casualties in an evacuated Israeli town. Israel claimed its
warplanes struck two Hezbollah militants in southern Lebanon who it said had
fired the volley of rockets.
The exchange was more of the same tit-for-tat that has flared along the
Lebanese-Israeli border throughout the war. But Israelis and Lebanese were
bracing for more after Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Thursday declared
that the Shukr's assassination in the southern suburbs of Beirut had pushed the
war into a “new phase."From contested Jerusalem, Sheikh Ekrima Sabri, the imam
of the holy Al-Aqsa Mosque, mentioned “the martyr Ismail Haniyeh” in his weekly
sermon to the thousands of Palestinian worshippers who had come to Friday
prayers. “We ask God Almighty to have mercy on him and to grant him a place in
His spacious gardens,” the imam said, adding that the Palestinians in Jerusalem
were mourning the late Hamas leader.
Sheikh Sabri, 85, was promptly arrested. The Israeli police said they were
interrogating him on charges of incitement to violence. “My policy towards
instigators is clear — zero tolerance,” far-right Israeli National Security
Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir posted on X.
Across the region, vows by Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that
Israel would pay the price for killing Haniyeh on Iranian soil quickly led to
calls for intense diplomacy to prevent further escalation.
Late on Thursday, President Joe Biden said he had urged Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu to seize the chance for a cease-fire, adding that Haniyeh's
killing in Iran has “not helped" efforts to negotiate an end to the war.
It's still unclear how Haniyeh's assassination will affect cease-fire talks.
Netanyahu's office said he ordered Israeli negotiators to fly to Cairo on
Saturday or Sunday. Officials from Hamas and Qatar, a key mediator in the
conflict, did not immediately respond to requests for comment on whether talks
were resuming.
Netanyahu has sought to portray Israel's recent targeting of Hamas leaders as
victories that bring Israel closer to a deal that would free the roughly 110
remaining Israeli hostages held by Hamas, whose distraught families rallied
Thursday in Tel Aviv to mark 300 bitter days of their captivity.
Tor Wennesland, the U.N. special coordinator for the Mideast peace process, said
he was racing to work with Lebanon, Qatar, Egypt and other powers to “prevent a
spillover of the conflict.”
U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey and Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited
Israel on Friday “to push for an immediate cease-fire" while Israeli Defense
Minister Yoav Gallant said he spoke with his American counterpart, U.S. Defense
Secretary Lloyd Austin.
“The unprecedented security cooperation between Israel and the United States
against Iran and its proxies is critical," Gallant said.
Though approvals are still pending, Austin is preparing to provide
additional military support to Israel and boost protection for U.S. troops in
the region, Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said Friday, against any threats
from Iran and its regional proxies. That could involve deploying additional
military units, she said, declining to provide details.
She said she’s not aware of any U.S. military units being ordered to
prepare to deploy as yet. In addition to combat aircraft, the U.S. has already
moved several warships into the eastern Mediterranean Sea, including two Navy
destroyers, the USS Roosevelt and the USS Bulkeley, as well as the USS Wasp and
the USS New York. The Wasp and the New York are part of the amphibious ready
group and carry a Marine expeditionary unit that could be used for evacuation of
U.S. personnel. A U.S. official also said that two U.S Navy destroyers that are
currently in the Middle East will be heading north up the Red Sea, toward the
Mediterranean. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss troop
movements.
Biden Tells Netanyahu to Accept Truce in ‘Very Direct’ Call
Jenny Leonard and Kateryna Kadabashy/Bloomberg/August 2, 2024
US President Joe Biden told Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree
to a cease-fire with Hamas as the White House’s frustrations over the
continuation of the war in Gaza grow. The two leaders, whose relationship has
been strained by the conflict, spoke Thursday. While Biden pledged to support
Israel against renewed threats from Iran and allied militias such as Hezbollah,
he said he was “very direct” with Netanyahu, with the regional fallout from the
war, now almost 10 months’ old, worsening. “We have the basis for a cease-fire,”
Biden told reporters. “He should move on it and they should move on it now.”He
said the assassination in Iran this week of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader
of Hamas and a key negotiator for the group, had “not helped.”
Iran and Hamas blamed Israel for the killing. Israel has neither
confirmed nor denied it was responsible. Privately, its officials have not
pushed back against the claim. Biden is trying to use his last months in office
to end the war, which has caused huge political divisions in the US. He’s
struggled to influence Netanyahu’s war strategy, despite his administration
providing billions of dollars in military aid to Israel. The prime minister, who
heads the most nationalist government in Israel’s history, says the country
needs to continue until Hamas is destroyed as a military and political
organization. While Hamas has been hammered since the war started in October,
with Israel saying it’s killed roughly half its fighters, the group is managing
to reassemble in some areas. Israel’s national security minister has said Hamas
probably won’t be fully defeated before the end of the year.
Netanyahu also denies the frequent claims from US, European and Arab
officials that Israel is not doing enough to get aid to civilians in Gaza, much
of which has been reduced to rubble. The truce negotiations, mediated by Qatar,
the US and Egypt, have dragged for months. The two sides are working on a plan
Biden outlined in May, which would see fighting initially stop for six weeks,
with some hostages released as well as Palestinians in Israeli jails. The second
and third stages would lead to more captives being freed and potentially a
permanent end to the war. There are still obstacles to overcome. One of the main
problems is that Israel won’t agree to any truce it thinks will restrict its
ability to restart the war and destroy Hamas.
More Tumult
Haniyeh’s death added to the tumult in the Middle East. It followed just hours
after Israel targeted and killed a senior Hezbollah commander called Fuad Shukr
in Beirut, Lebanon’s capital. Israel confirmed that hit, saying Shukr was
responsible for a rocket attack on the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights last
weekend that killed 12 children and teenagers playing football. Iran and
Hezbollah have vowed revenge against Israel, with Tehran ordering its security
forces to assess options for attacking the Jewish state. Iran and Israel
exchanged fire in April when Tehran accused its arch enemy of striking a
consulate building in Syria. Iran retaliated by launching 300 drones and
missiles at Israel. Yet it effectively telegraphed its move in advance, helping
Israel intercept almost all the projectiles with the help of allied armies and
ensuring they caused little damage. Israel, under pressure from the US and
Europe not to respond aggressively, launched a limited strike on an Iranian
airbase. This time, Iran’s revenge may be more fierce, given the sheer
embarrassment of having a foreign dignitary assassinated in the heart of its
capital. Its options range from another direct assault on Israel to getting its
proxies to step up attacks on the country to hitting Israeli targets across the
world. The rising tensions in the petroleum-rich region have impacted global
markets. Oil prices are up since Wednesday morning and Israel’s shekel is
heading for its worst week in more than four years.
‘Heavy Price’
Netanyahu said earlier Thursday that Israel’s at “a very high level of
preparedness for any scenario.”“We will exact a very high price for any act of
aggression against us from any quarter whatsoever,” he said. Biden was joined on
his call to Netanyahu by Vice President Kamala Harris, who’s the Democratic
Party’s presumptive nominee for the presidential election in November. The
president promised “new defensive US military deployments” for Israel, which the
White House’s statement didn’t elaborate on. He also “stressed the importance of
ongoing efforts to de-escalate broader tensions in the region.” The US
government has used intermediaries to send warnings to Iran, Hezbollah and the
Houthis of Yemen not to escalate matters further, according to people familiar
with American policy. The war in Gaza erupted when Hamas fighters swarmed into
southern Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people and taking 250 hostage. Israel’s
subsequent offensive on Gaza has killed around 40,000 Palestinians, according to
the Hamas-run health ministry there. Hamas and Hezbollah are part of what’s
often called Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance,’ a group of anti-Israel and anti-US
militias in the Middle East. The US designates both of them as terrorist
organizations.
Israel-Hamas war latest: International calls for cease-fire
grow after assassinations in the Mideast
The Associated Press/Fri, August 2, 2024
United States President Joe Biden says he’s “very concerned” that the violence
in the Middle East could escalate, adding that the killing of a top Hamas leader
in Iran has “not helped” efforts to negotiate a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas
war. Biden said he’d had a “very direct” conversation
with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday. “We have the basis
for a cease-fire. He should move on it and they should move on it now.”Netanyahu
has said his country was determined to win nothing less than “total victory”
against Hamas. He also said that Israel hoped for a cease-fire soon and was
working for one. The assassinations of Hamas leader
Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on Wednesday and senior Hezbollah commander Fouad
Shukur in Beirut on Tuesday risks escalating the fighting into an all-out
regional war, with Iran also threatening to respond after the attack on its
territory. Israel has vowed to kill Hamas leaders over the group’s Oct. 7 attack
on Israel that sparked the war. U.S. Secretary of
State Antony Blinken was among the growing voices internationally calling for a
cease-fire in recent days, saying that it was the only way to begin to break the
cycle of violence and suffering.
Here’s the latest:
U.S. Defense Secretary to direct forces to provide additional support to Israel
and increase U.S. troop protection in region
WASHINGTON — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin “will be directing multiple” force
movements to provide additional support to Israel and increase protection for
U.S. troops in the region, Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said Friday. She
said final decisions have not yet been made. Singh said it could involve
deploying additional military units “with additional capabilities that ...would
need to be operated by additional people.” She declined to provide details, but
an array of defensive measures, from additional ships and fighter aircraft units
to added air defense systems, would involve more troops.
She said she’s not aware of any U.S. military units being ordered to prepare to
deploy as yet. The U.S. continues to have a number of warships in the eastern
Mediterranean Sea, including two Navy destroyers, the USS Roosevelt and the USS
Bulkeley, as well as the USS Wasp and the USS New York.
The Wasp and the New York are part of the amphibious ready group and carry a
Marine expeditionary unit that could be used if any evacuation of U.S. personnel
is required. In addition, a U.S. official said that two U.S Navy destroyers that
are currently in the Middle East will be heading north up the Red Sea toward the
Mediterranean Sea. At least one of those could linger in the Mediterranean if
needed. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss troop movements.
Palestinians in Gaza rely on makeshift charity kitchens for survival as access
to food, water remains a struggle
DEIR al-BALAH, Gaza Strip — Palestinians in Gaza are still struggling to have
proper access to food and clean water amid Israel’s ongoing war against Hamas,
which has restricted the entry of much needed aid. Families heavily rely on
makeshift charity kitchens for survival, lining up for several hours in
excruciating heat to get their main meal of the day of rice, with chicken
provided once a week. Abu Hamzah, who runs a small charity kitchen set up in
Deir al-Balah, told the Associated Press that between 8,000 and 10,000 displaced
people benefit from his charity kitchen. Footage by the Associated Press shows
the inside of a makeshift shelter where Abu Hamzah helps give meals. “Life is
hard. There is no income. We come to the charity kitchen and stand 4 to 5 hours
waiting our turn during the day every day in the sun,” Um Yehia Shaheen, a woman
displaced with seven family members from Gaza City, told the AP. Water access is
also strained after water wells across the enclave were destroyed in Israeli
airstrikes. Palestinians in Deir al-Balah line up for hours to fill up their
bottles or jerry cans from water barrels. “There is no life here. We’re not
living. Donkeys in Gaza used to live a better life than the one we are living
now,” Mohamed Hanounah, a man displaced from Gaza City told AP. Israeli police
detain top imam at Al-Aqsa mosque over Haniyeh comments
JERUSALEM — Israeli police have detained the top imam at the revered Al-Aqsa
compound in Jerusalem’s Old City for comments he made during a Friday sermon
mourning the death of top Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.
Haniyeh was assassinated earlier in the week in Tehran in an attack that many
have pinned on Israel. On Friday, Israeli police said they brought Sheikh Ekrima
Sabri in for questioning after his address during midday prayers mentioned
Haniyeh by name, mourning his death and asking “God Almighty to have mercy on
him and to grant him a place in his spacious gardens.”The police said they are
now investigating Sabri for incitement. They said the state has previously filed
an indictment against Sabri on the same charge, one of 140 indictments for
incitement in the Jerusalem area — including several other imams. Throughout the
war, Israel has cracked down on Palestinian free speech, rights groups say,
arresting them for speech deemed by Israeli authorities to be incendiary.
Lebanese village mourns Syrian family killed in Israeli strike
BEIRUT — Dozens of people gathered Friday in the village of Chamaa in southern
Lebanon to mourn a Syrian refugee family killed in an Israeli strike that hit
their house the day before. The Lebanese health ministry said five Lebanese
citizens were also injured in the strike, which killed a Syrian widow and her
three sons — two children and one young adult. The Israeli military did not
immediately respond to a request for comment. Haidar Haidar, the oldest son’s
employer in a factory for construction materials, said the family was originally
from Idlib in northern Syria. “They are people who escaped war in Syria and they
met their fate here,” he said. Since October, the Lebanese militant group
Hezbollah and Israeli forces have exchanged strikes near-daily over the
Lebanon-Israel border, killing more than 500 people in Lebanon — including about
100 civilians — and 22 soldiers and 25 civilians in Israel. They include 12
children and teenagers killed by a missile that hit a soccer field in the town
of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights on Saturday. Israel blamed
Hezbollah for the strike; Hezbollah denied responsibility. Days later, Israel
killed a top Hezbollah commander in a rare strike in Beirut for which Hezbollah
has vowed to retaliate, triggering fears that the conflict could spiral out of
control. French minister seeks greater security for Jewish communities as
tensions escalate
PARIS — France’s Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin on Friday called for
increased security measures to protect Jewish communities across the country
amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. “The risk of action is real,”
Darmanin said in a note to national and local law enforcement agencies. He
requested greater security around places frequented by Jewish people in France,
particularly places of worship and other gatherings for religious services.
Darmanin specifically mentioned the “many Israeli citizens” in France at the
time of the Paris Olympics in need of protection as tensions flare up following
the assassination of top Hamas and Hezbollah leaders in Tehran and in Beirut.
Israel protests after Turkey lowers embassy flag for Haniyeh
JERUSALEM — Israel has summoned Turkey’s deputy ambassador for a “severe
reprimand” after the Turkish embassy in Tel Aviv lowered its flag to half-staff
in a sign of mourning for Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh, the Israeli
foreign minister announced. Israel Katz said on X that his country would not
tolerate expressions of mourning for a “murderer like Ismail Haniyeh, who led
Hamas in committing the atrocities on October 7th and prayed with his
associates, wishing success to the murderers.” Turkish President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan announced a national day of mourning for Friday, mandating that flags
around the country and at overseas diplomatic missions be lowered to half-staff
in honor of Haniyeh. Funeral prayers were being held at mosques around country
as well as Istanbul’s famed Haghia Sophia. Katz said: “If the embassy
representatives wish to mourn, they should go to Turkey and mourn alongside
their master, Erdogan, who embraces the terrorist organization Hamas and
supports its acts of murder and terror.” Turkey’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman
Oncu Keceli responded to Katz on X, saying Israel would not be able to achieve
peace “by killing negotiators and threatening diplomats.” Turkey does not view
Hamas as a terrorist organization and has describes it as a “liberation
movement.” Israel investigates imam at Al-Aqsa Mosque over Haniyeh comments
JERUSALEM — Israeli police are investigating comments made Friday by the imam at
Al-Aqsa Mosque in the Old City of Jerusalem mourning top Hamas leader Ismail
Haniyeh during prayers Friday. Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran earlier this
week in an attack that Iran pinned on Israel. On Friday, Sheikh Ekrima Sabri,
the former mufti of Jerusalem and the Palestinian territories, said, “the people
of Jerusalem and the environs of Jerusalem from the pulpit of the blessed
Al-Aqsa Mosque mourn the martyr Ismail Haniyeh. We ask God Almighty to have
mercy on him and to grant him a place in His spacious gardens.” Sabri also led a
funeral prayer in absentia for Haniyeh. Following the sermon, Israeli police
said that they were probing whether the statement constituted incitement. They
pledged to “act based on the findings.” Since the start of the war, Palestinians
have been arrested, fired by Israeli employers and expelled from Israeli schools
for online speech deemed incendiary by Israeli authorities, rights groups say.
Roughly 30,000 attended prayers Friday, according to the Waqf, the
Jordanian-based Muslim religious body that takes care of the Al-Aqsa site.
Police banned hundreds of young men from entering the sensitive compound ahead
of prayers, a common practice since Oct. 7. Cyprus prepares to help people
evacuate from the Middle East in case the Israel-Hamas war expands
NICOSIA, Cyprus — Cyprus’ foreign minister says authorities are in touch with
the diplomatic missions of nations that may opt to evacuate their citizens
through the east Mediterranean island nation if the Israeli-Hamas war expands to
engulf neighboring countries. Minister Constantinos Kombos said Friday agencies
have been mobilized as part of the country’s long-standing evacuation action
plan called ESTIA. He said there’s a “serious danger” of conflict expanding
further, which would affect the entire region. Kombos said Cyprus’ role is to
“operate as a bridge of safety” in the region in the event of mass evacuations
of third-country citizens from the Middle East. In 2023, Cyprus acted as a
waystation for third-country evacuees from Sudan and Israel after the start of
the Israel-Hamas war. The island nation also helped in the evacuation of tens of
thousands of third-country nationals during the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah conflict.
An Australian inquiry blames Israeli military failings for a fatal drone attack
on a Gaza aid convoy
MELBOURNE, Australia — An Australian investigation has found the Israeli
military’s attack on an aid convoy in Gaza that killed seven people resulted
from serious failures of defense procedures, mistaken identification, and bad
decisions.
Australian Zomi Frankcom was among those killed in the April 1 Israeli drone
strikes on three World Central Kitchen vehicles. The report released Friday says
the convoy’s armed security guards were likely mistaken for Hamas operatives.
Two Israeli officers were dismissed and three reprimanded, but Frankcom’s family
says more should be done. Former Australian Defense Force Chief Mark Binskin was
appointed as Australia’s special adviser on the matter. He says Israel should
apologize to the families. A family representative issued a statement Friday
welcoming Binskin’s report as an “important first step.” “We hope it will be
followed by further investigations in Israel regarding those responsible for
this tragic event, followed by appropriate action,” the family statement said.
Pakistan's prime minister calls for a day of mourning for Hamas leader Haniyeh
ISLAMABAD — Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is appealing to his
countrymen to observe a day of mourning and hold special funeral prayers in
absentia for the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in the Iranian
capital of Tehran. Such prayers are held when the body of any person is from the
country. Sharif in his televised remarks Friday said he will also attend a
special funeral service for Haniyeh at a mosque at his sprawling office in the
capital, Islamabad. He denounced the killing of the Hamas leader in his brief
remarks shortly before Pakistan’s parliament approved a resolution to express
solidarity with the Palestinian people. The resolution also called for an
immediate cease-fire in Gaza and denounced the killing of the Hamas leader. US
President Biden is ‘very concerned’ that violence in the Mideast could escalate
JOINT BASE ANDREWS, Maryland — President Joe Biden said late Thursday he’s “very
concerned” that the violence in the Middle East could escalate, adding that the
killing of a top Hamas leader in Iran has “not helped” efforts to negotiate a
cease-fire in Israel’s war with Gaza. Biden said he’d had a “very direct”
conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier in the day,
repeating “very direct” for emphasis. He added: “We have the basis for a
cease-fire. He should move on it and they should move on it now.” Biden spoke on
the tarmac of an air base outside Washington after welcoming back to the United
States three Americans who were freed in a prisoner swap earlier in the day.
IDF claims journalist killed was Hamas operative, Al
Jazeera denies allegation as ‘baseless’
Reuters/August 02, 2024
JERUSALEM: The Israeli military confirmed on Thursday that it had killed
Al-Jazeera journalist Ismail Al-Ghoul in an airstrike in Gaza, saying he was a
Hamas operative who had taken part in the Oct. 7 attack on Israel.
Al-Jazeera dismissed what it said were “baseless allegations” which it
said were an attempt to justify the deliberate killing of its journalists.
“The network condemns the accusations against its correspondent Ismail
Al-Ghoul, without providing any proof, documentation or video,” it said in a
statement, adding that it reserved the right to take legal action against those
responsible.
The Qatari broadcaster said on Wednesday that Al-Ghoul and cameraman Ramy El
Rify were both killed in an Israeli strike on Gaza City while on an assignment
to film near the house of Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas chief killed in Iran earlier
on the same day. The Israeli military said Al-Ghoul
was a member of the elite Nukhba unit who took part in the Oct. 7 attack and
instructed Hamas operatives on how to record operations, and it said he was
involved in recording and publicizing attacks on Israeli troops.
“His activities in the field were a vital part of Hamas’ military
activity,” it said in a statement.
Al-Jazeera said Al-Ghoul had worked for the network since November 2023 and his
only profession was as a journalist. It said he had
been arrested and detained at Al-Shifa Hospital in the northern part of the Gaza
Strip when it was taken by Israeli forces in March before being released, which
it said “debunks and refutes their false claim of his affiliation with any
organization.”The Israeli government has banned Al-Jazeera from operating in
Israel, accusing it of posing a threat to national security.
Al Jazeera, which has been heavily critical of Israel’s campaign in Gaza,
has denied inciting violence.
The Hamas-run Gaza government media office said the deaths of the two Al-Jazeera
crew raised to 165 the number of Palestinian journalists killed by Israeli fire
since Oct 7.
Israel advances most West Bank settlements in decades:
EU
AFP/August 03, 2024
JERUSALEM: Israel advanced last year the highest number of settlements in the
occupied West Bank since the Oslo Accords of the 1990s, the European Union’s
representative office in the Palestinian territories said on Friday.Plans for
12,349 housing units moved toward approval in the West Bank, the EU office said,
warning of the impact on a potential two-state solution for the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Another 18,333 units
moved forward in the planning process in annexed east Jerusalem, the EU office
said. The total — 30,682 units in both the West Bank
and east Jerusalem — is the highest since 2012, it added.
The report comes at a time of heightened tensions in the West Bank and
east Jerusalem over the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip, which has been
raging since October 7. “The EU has repeatedly called
on Israel not to proceed with plans under its settlement policy and to halt all
settlement activities,” the EU office said. “It
remains the EU’s firm position that settlements are illegal under international
law. “Israel’s decision to advance plans for the
approval and construction of new settlement units in 2023 further undermines the
prospects of a viable two-state solution.” All of
Israel’s settlements in the West Bank, occupied since 1967, are considered
illegal under international law, regardless of whether they have Israeli
planning permission. Dozens of unauthorized
settlements have sprung up in the territories — ranging from a few tents grouped
together to prefabricated huts that have been linked to public electricity and
water supplies. Excluding east Jerusalem, some 490,000
Israeli settlers now live in the West Bank alongside some three million
Palestinians. Far-right parties in Israel’s governing coalition have pressed for
an acceleration of settlement expansion. Since the
start of the Gaza war, violence between Palestinians and Israeli troops and
settlers has intensified.At least 594 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli
troops and settlers in the West Bank since October 7, according to an AFP tally
based on Palestinian health ministry figures. At least
17 Israelis, including soldiers, have been killed by Palestinian attacks in the
West Bank over the same period, according to official Israeli figures.
The landmark Oslo Accords codified mutual recognition of Israel and the
Palestinian Liberation Organization, as well as interim Palestinian
self-government. Last year Norwegian peace worker Jan
Egeland, one of the deal’s architects, told AFP that he now considered the
accords dead.
Haniyeh's assassination sheds light on long history of
alleged Israeli attacks in Iran
Associated Press/August 2, 2024
Explosions in secretive underground nuclear facilities. Cyber attacks. Top
scientists poisoned. Natural gas pipelines sabotaged. All these and more have
been blamed on Israel in its shadow war with Iran. And the latest accusation,
that Israel is behind the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in
Tehran, only expands that list. Israel has allegedly carried out highly
secretive and deadly attacks on Iranian soil repeatedly over the years, though
the country rarely takes responsibility. Most have been aimed at the country's
nuclear program.
Here is a look at that history of alleged attacks:
Years of alleged covert operations
Prior to this week, the most prominent assassination blamed on Israeli was in
November 2020, when a top Iranian military nuclear scientist, Mohsen
Fakhrizadeh, was killed by a remote-controlled machine gun while traveling in a
car outside Tehran. Not all of Israel's suspected attacks have targeted people.
One of the first attacks against Iran attributed to Israel was the Stuxnet
computer virus, discovered in 2010 and widely believed to be a joint
U.S.-Israeli creation. The virus disrupted and destroyed Iranian centrifuges.
Iran also accused Israel of sabotaging major natural gas pipelines earlier this
year.
In 2018, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel had obtained tens of
thousands of pages of data showing that Iran had covered up its nuclear program
before signing a deal with world powers in 2015. He didn't say how Israel
obtained the information, but an ex-Mossad chief confirmed that it was obtained
by more than a dozen non-Israeli agents from safes in Tehran in 2018. Iran says
the nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. Alleged Israeli attacks against
Iran's nuclear program stepped up significantly in 2020, after the
disintegration of the 2015 nuclear deal meant to keep Iran from developing
nuclear weapons, explained Meir Litvak, the director of the Alliance Center for
Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University. In the past
four years, Iran said Israel attacked multiple nuclear sites deep in central
Iran. Some of the attacks Iran directly or indirectly accused Israel of carrying
out include destroying nuclear facilities with explosive drones in Isfahan and
setting off at least two explosions at an underground nuclear facility in
Natanz. Iran accused Israel of poisoning two nuclear scientists in different
cities within three days of each other in 2022, though circumstances remain
unclear.
The shadow war between the two countries burst into the open earlier this year,
when Iran launched an unprecedented missile and drone attack against Israeli
territory after an airstrike blamed on Israel killed two Iranian generals in
Syria.
'An exquisite intelligence capability'
Haniyeh's brazen assassination in Tehran this week, just hours after Iran's
President Masoud Pezeshkian's swearing-in ceremony, had little to do with Iran's
nuclear program. And if Israel was behind it, it would represent an opportunity
to target two major enemies at the same time: Iran and Hamas.
Litvak said that Israel may have made the decision to target Haniyeh in Iran
because it did not want to carry out an assassination in Qatar or Egypt, two of
Israel's major partners hosting the Gaza cease-fire negotiations. The
assassination carried the double meaning of eliminating the most senior Hamas
leader while also sending an important message to Iran. "They knew which
specific apartment and where he was, and it shows that something is really
rotten in the Iranian security system," Litvak said. Norman T. Roule, who served
as the United States' National Intelligence Manager for Iran at the office of
the Director of National Intelligence from 2008 to 2017, added that killings
like Haniyeh's show "an exquisite intelligence capability" that allows pinpoint
strikes on security-conscious targets to be carried out without civilian
casualties. Hamas said that Haniyeh was killed by a missile, but Roule said it
wasn't publicly known if the weapon was launched from inside or outside Iran.
However the operation was carried out, it's likely it required significant
cooperation with people on the ground in Iran. People inside Iran who are
disaffected with the government provides Israel with a pool of potential
cooperators in operations against the Islamic Republic, said Meir Javedanfar,
who teaches Iranian politics at Israel's Reichman University.
Iran weighs retaliation
Details of such operations are highly guarded secrets, and are regarded by the
Israeli security establishment as essential for the country's survival.
"Israelis see Iran and its allies as the most serious strategic threat against
the state of Israel and the Jewish people since the fall of the Nazi regime,"
said Javedanfar, who was born in Iran and emigrated to Israel as a teenager in
1987. The strike Wednesday highlighted significant failings in Iran's air
defense network, said Roule, now a senior adviser with the Warfare, Irregular
Threats, and Terrorism Program at the Center for Strategic and International
Studies, Given the "severe humiliation of Iran's defenses," Roule said, Iran now
is likely trapped between the need to retaliate and the desire to maintain
internal stability during a time of economic and political transition. It's a
delicate period that is only compounded by fights between Iranian proxies on one
side and Israel and its allies such as the U.S. on the other. "If you're Iran
you have a real challenge in front of you," he continued. "This is a package
issue. You don't have one problem."
Biden says US committed to defend Israel against 'all
threats from Iran'
Agence France Presse/August 2, 2024
U.S. President Joe Biden has told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that
Washington is committed to defending Israel's security "against all threats from
Iran," the White House said, after the assassination of a top Hamas leader in
Tehran. Biden, who was joined on the call by Vice President and Democratic
presidential candidate Kamala Harris, also emphasized the "ongoing efforts to
de-escalate broader tensions in the region," the White House said Thursday in a
statement. The call between the leaders also came after Israel announced it had
"eliminated Hezbollah military commander Fouad Shukur in Beirut.
Netanyahu's government has not commented on the slaying of Hamas political
leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, but the Palestinian militant group has blamed
Israel. Biden "reaffirmed his commitment to Israel's security against all
threats from Iran, including its proxy terrorist groups Hamas, Hezbollah, and
the Houthis," the White House said in a readout of the president's call with
Netanyahu. "The president discussed efforts to support Israel's defense against
threats, including against ballistic missiles and drones, to include new
defensive U.S. military deployments," it said. Israel has said the assassination
of Shukur was a response to deadly rocket fire from the Lebanese group last week
on the annexed Golan Heights.Hezbollah has exchanged near-daily fire with Israel
in south Lebanon since the Gaza war began. Biden said late Thursday he’s “very
concerned” that the violence in the Middle East could escalate, adding that the
killing of Haniyeh in Iran has “not helped” efforts to negotiate a cease-fire in
Israel’s war with Gaza. Biden said he’d had a “very direct” conversation with
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier in the day, repeating “very
direct” for emphasis. He added: “We have the basis for a cease-fire. He should
move on it and they should move on it now.”Biden spoke on the tarmac of an air
base outside Washington after welcoming back to the United States three
Americans who were freed in a prisoner swap earlier in the day.
Report: Negotiations to resume soon despite Haniyeh's
assassination
Naharnet/August 2, 2024
Truce negotiations between Israel and Hamas are expected to resume soon despite
the assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, the Israeli Public
Broadcasting Corporation reported on Friday. “Haniyeh’s assassination will
contribute to pushing forward the negotiations over an agreement in Gaza,” the
Israeli corporation quoted unnamed sources as saying. “Washington has asked
Qatar and Egypt to press for the resumption of negotiations,” the sources
added.Israeli media meanwhile quoted a Western official as saying that “a
ceasefire in Gaza is necessary to calm the tensions between Hezbollah and
Israel.”
France tells nationals visiting Iran to leave 'as soon as
possible'
Agence France Presse/August 2, 2024
France on Friday urged its nationals visiting Iran to leave immediately, after
Tehran accused Israel of killing Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its soil,
sparking regional tensions. "Due to the increased risk of a military escalation
in the region, visiting French nationals still in Iran are invited to leave as
soon as possible," the foreign ministry said. The killing of Haniyeh in a
pre-dawn attack on Wednesday in Tehran has deepened fears of a regional war.
Tehran, as well as the Iran-backed Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah movements, have
blamed Israel, which has not commented. Israel has however claimed
responsibility for the killing just hours earlier of senior Hezbollah military
commander Fouad Shukur in Beirut's southern suburbs. Hundreds of people gathered
at a mosque in Qatar on Friday to bid farewell to the slain Hamas leader.
Haniyeh's killing comes almost 10 months into an Israeli military offensive that
has ravaged the Gaza Strip, sparked by an unprecedented Hamas attack on southern
Israel.
Russia pulled back weapons shipment to Houthis amid US and Saudi pressure
Natasha Bertrand and Katie Bo Lillis, CNN/August 2, 2024
Russia was preparing to deliver missiles and other military equipment to the
Houthi rebels in Yemen late last month but pulled back at the last minute amid a
flurry of behind-the-scenes efforts by the United States and Saudi Arabia to
stop it, multiple sources familiar with the matter told CNN.
The Saudis, who were locked in a brutal war with the Houthis for years before
the US helped to negotiate a fragile truce in 2022, warned Russia against arming
one of their biggest adversaries upon learning of the plans, the sources said.
The US, which has been involved in several diplomatic efforts to stop the
Russians from arming the Iran-backed rebels, separately asked the Saudis to help
convince Moscow not to pursue the effort, two of the sources said.
The US-Saudi discussions and the imminent weapons transfer have not been
previously reported. The Saudi Embassy in the US declined to comment and the
Kremlin did not return a request for comment. The US designated the Houthis as a
global terrorist organization in January, following months of Houthi missile and
drone attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea that killed several
mariners and hobbled global trade. Despite several rounds of sanctions and US
military attacks on Houthi weapons infrastructure, however, the rebels have
continued to attack commercial ships in the crucial waterway. A senior US
official declined to discuss the specifics of Russia’s plans to arm the Houthis.
But the official said that the US regards any attempt by a third party to
bolster the Houthis’ weapons supplies “as antithetical to the goals we are
pursuing” when it comes to achieving a lasting peace settlement in Yemen between
the Houthis and the Saudis, and helping to stabilize the region. For the Houthis
to engage in that kind of weapons transaction, moreover, “would demonstrate to
us a lack of commitment” by the Houthis to peace talks, the official said.
Currently, the Houthis “appear to be drifting further away from a commitment to
a negotiated peace in Yemen,” the official said.
Russian ships in the Red Sea
It remains unclear to the US intelligence community whether Saudi Arabia’s
pushback was the key to Russia abandoning its plan to arm the Houthis, or
whether it was just one of a number of factors that led Russian President
Vladimir Putin to change his mind, the sources said.
The Russians have viewed arming and advising the Houthis as a way to retaliate
against the Biden administration for its decision to allow Ukraine to strike
inside Russian territory using US-provided weapons, officials said.
And while the imminent weapons transfer was pulled back, Russia did
deploy military personnel to Yemen to help advise the Houthis over a three-day
period in late July, the sources said. US officials
watched as large Russian ships made an unusual stop in the southern Red Sea,
where the Russian personnel disembarked, were picked up by the Houthis in a
boat, and ferried to Yemen, the sources said. The
Russians carried bags with them, but nothing that appeared large enough to carry
weapons or weapons components, the sources said. It is not clear whether the
Russian ships were carrying the equipment that Russia had been preparing to
transfer to the Houthis before the Kremlin abandoned the plan.
Before and during the Russians’ visit to Yemen, the Houthis took the unusual
step of issuing a notice to mariners, which alerts ships to potential dangers at
sea. A US official said intelligence indicated that the Houthis had intended to
conduct live fire exercises while hosting the Russians, but those plans appear
to have been scrapped, too. The Houthis began their
near-daily attacks on ships transiting the Red Sea in November 2023, prompting
the US and UK to conduct several rounds of airstrikes inside Yemen to try to
eliminate their weapons infrastructure. The strikes do
not appear to have significantly impacted the Houthis’ stockpiles, and the rebel
group even showed signs of being willing to sell some weapons to the Somali
militant group al-Shabaab in June, CNN previously reported. But their supply is
not infinite, particularly because the US has sanctioned several entities over
the last few months — primarily out of China and Oman — believed to be supplying
the group with weapons components. The Houthis are also in particular need of
new radar systems, which US Central Command forces have regularly targeted to
try to blunt the Houthis’ missile attacks. There have been indications as well
that the Houthis’ primary patron, Iran, has had some concerns about the group’s
attack strategy, whereas Russia has been critical of the US and UK attacks on
the Houthis.
US warns a famine in Sudan is on pace to be the
deadliest in decades as the world looks elsewhere
AP/August 03, 2024
WASHINGTON: The newly confirmed famine at one of the sprawling camps for
war-displaced people in Sudan’s Darfur region is growing uncontrolled as the
country’s combatants block aid, and it threatens to grow bigger and deadlier
than the world’s last major famine 13 years ago, US officials warned on Friday.
The US Agency for International Development, the UN World Food Program
and other independent and government humanitarian agencies were intensifying
calls for a ceasefire and aid access across Sudan. That’s after international
experts in the Famine Review Committee formally confirmed Thursday that the
starvation in at least one of three giant makeshift camps, holding up to 600,000
people displaced by Sudan’s more than yearlong war, had grown into a full
famine. Two US officials briefed reporters on their
analysis of the crisis on Friday following the famine finding, which is only the
third in the 20-year history of the Famine Review Committee. The US officials
spoke on the condition of anonymity as the ground rules for their general
briefing. The last major famine, in Somalia, was
estimated to have killed a quarter of a million people in 2011, half of them
children under 5 years old.
The blocks that Sudan’s warring sides are putting on food and other aid for the
civilians trapped in the Zamzam camp are realizing “the worst fears of the
humanitarian community,” one of the US officials said.
War in the northern African country erupted in April 2023 when two rival
generals, both with international backers, suddenly opened a deadly battle for
control of Sudan’s capital, sidelining an existing civilian transitional
government that Sudanese had hoped would bring stability to the country. On one
side, the Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, grew out of the Janjaweed militias
notorious for their mass attacks, rape and forced displacement of civilians in
Darfur in 2003. As most of the world paid attention to
conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza and the larger Middle East, the Sudanese war
quickly grew into the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, with 11 million
displaced. Unlike the earlier war, acute hunger is almost countrywide.
Aid workers were last able to get humanitarian relief to the trapped
civilians at the camps in Darfur in April. The RSF has the area under siege and
is accused of attacking hospitals, camps and other civilian targets.
World Food Program director Cindy McCain urged the international
community in a statement after the famine declaration to work for a ceasefire.
“It is the only way we will reverse a humanitarian catastrophe that is
destabilizing this entire region of Africa,” she said.
USAID Director Samantha Power stressed the famine was entirely man-made. Both
sides, “enabled by external patrons, are using starvation as a weapon of war,”
she said in a statement. The US officials Friday
pointed to Washington as the largest source of aid — the little that gets
through — for Sudan. They countered questions about why the Biden administration
was not using air drops or any of the other direct interventions by the US
military to get food to people in Darfur that they were in Gaza, saying the
terrain in Sudan was different. The United States and
Saudi Arabia have invited the two sides for ceasefire talks in Switzerland in
August. The RSF leader said it planned to attend, while the military-controlled
Sudanese government stated that any negotiation before implementing the Jeddah
Declaration “wouldn’t be acceptable to the Sudanese people.”The Jeddah
Declaration of Commitment to Protect Civilians passed last year meant to end the
conflict, but neither side committed to its objectives.
International experts use set criteria to confirm the existence of
famines. Formal declarations of famines are usually made by the countries
themselves or the United Nations, and politics often slows such declarations.
Australian inquiry blames Israel failings for fatal
drone attack on Gaza aid convoy
Associated Press/August 2, 2024
The Israeli military's attack on an aid convoy in Gaza in April that killed
seven people was the result of serious failures of defense procedures, mistaken
identification and errors in decision-making, according to an Australian
investigation that was made public Friday. Australia initiated the investigation
to examine Tel Aviv's response to the widely condemned Israeli Defense Forces'
drone strikes on three World Central Kitchen vehicles on April 1. Australian
Zomi Frankcom, three of her aid worker colleagues and three British personal
security staff died in the attack. Former Australian
Defense Force Chief Mark Binskin was appointed the government's special adviser
on the matter and visited Israel in May. He also engaged with World Central
Kitchen and Solace Global, the company that provided the convoy's security team.
Binskin blamed the fatal strikes on "serious failures to follow IDF
procedures, mistaken identification and errors in decision-making," a statement
said. The armed security guards were likely mistaken
for Hamas operatives, Binskin said. This was the primary factor behind a
"significant break down in situational awareness." He found the strikes were not
deliberately directed against World Central Kitchen. But Binskin wrote: "It is
important to all the families that an appropriate apology be provided to them by
the government of Israel." Foreign Minister Penny Wong
said she had told Israel that the families deserved an apology. While Binskin's
report outlined steps Israeli had taken to avoid a repeat tragedy, "stronger
protocols" were needed to protect aid workers in Gaza, Wong said. "Gaza remains
the deadliest place on earth to be an aid worker. This was not a one-off
incident," Wong told reporters. "The U.N. reports that
more than 250 aid workers have been killed since the start of this conflict and
in recent weeks, a number of U.N. vehicles have come under attack. This is not
acceptable," Wong added. Binskin said his conclusions
were "fairly consistent" with an Israeli military investigation in April that
led to two officers being dismissed and three being reprimanded within a week of
the bungled attack.
Military Advocate General Brig. Gen. Yifat Tomer-Yerushalmi, Israel's top
miliary lawyer, is considering further potential action against those
responsible. Wong said the Frankcom family felt that
disciplinary action to date had been insufficient. "The Australian government
will continue to press for full accountability, including any appropriate
criminal charges, and we will continue to advocate the views of the Frankcom
family and the Australian government to Israel," Wong said. A family
representative issued a statement Friday welcoming Binskin's report as an
"important first step." "We hope it will be followed by further investigations
in Israel regarding those responsible for this tragic event, followed by
appropriate action," the family statement said.
Binskin said the Israeli Defense Forces had been "very forthcoming" toward his
investigation. But the level of detail the Israelis provided on specific
operational improvements they had made since the convoy blunder made it
difficult for him to assess how effective the changes were. The other World
Central Kitchen staff killed were American-Canadian dual national Jacob
Flickinger, Palestinian Saifeddin Issam Ayad Abutaha and Polish citizen Damian
Sobol. On the British security team were John Chapman, James Kirby and Jim
Henderson.
Turkey blocks access to Instagram, in response to removal of posts on Haniyeh
Associated Press/August 2, 2024
Turkey's communications authority blocked access to the social media platform
Instagram on Friday, the latest instance of a clampdown on websites in the
country. The Information and Communication Technologies Authority, which
regulates the internet, announced the decision early Friday but did not provide
a reason. Yeni Safak newspaper, which is close to the government, and other
media said access was blocked in response to Instagram removing posts by Turkish
users that expressed condolences over the killing of Hamas political leader
Ismail Haniyeh. "Sanctions for Instagram's blackout policy were swift. The
Information Technologies and Communication Authority blocked access to
Instagram," Yeni Safak stated in its online edition. It came days after
Fahrettin Altun, the presidential communications director and aide to President
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, strongly criticized the Meta-owned platform for preventing
users in Turkey from posting messages of condolences for Haniyeh. Instagram has
over 50 million users in Turkey, a nation with a population of 85 million.
Unlike its Western allies, Turkey does not consider Hamas to be a terror
organization. A strong critic of Israel's military actions in Gaza, Erdogan has
described the group as "liberation fighters."The country is observing a day of
mourning for Haniyeh on Friday, during which flags are being flown at
half-staff. Turkey has a track record of censoring social media and websites.
Hundreds of thousands of domains have been blocked since 2022, according to the
Freedom of Expression Association, a non-profit organization regrouping lawyers
and human rights activists. The video-sharing platform YouTube was blocked from
2007 to 2010.
The Latest English LCCC analysis & editorials from
miscellaneous sources on August 02-03/2024
Editorial: The end for terror
masters: Death comes for Hezbollah’s Fuad Shukr and Hamas’ Ismail Haniyeh
New York Daily News Editorial Board, New York Daily News/August 2, 2024
A small bit of justice came to two very evil men when they met their ends in
Beirut and Tehran this week. Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr was blasted to
oblivion by Israel in Beirut after Hezbollah fired an Iranian-made Falaq-1
rocket into the Golan Heights, killing a dozen Druze children playing soccer.
That was just one of 6,500 rockets, more than 1,000 antitank missiles and
hundreds of drones that the terror group has launched from poor, abused Lebanon
into Israel since their pals in Hamas began their Oct. 7 pogrom of murder and
rape and kidnapping against Israel.
Hours later, at 2 a.m. in Tehran, another arch terrorist, the head of Hamas,
Ismail Haniyeh, also expired, along with his bodyguard, when something explosive
went through his living room window. The targeted attack, presumably also by
Israel, found its target perfectly, as the rest of the apartment building was
left touched. These terrorist enemies of Israel were
also enemies of the United States and civilized society.
Shukr had a $5 million price on his head from the U.S. State Department for
playing “a central role in the Oct. 23, 1983 bombing of the U.S. Marine Corps
Barracks in Beirut which killed 241 U.S. military personnel and wounded 128
others.” Hezbollah and Shukr also had a simultaneous attack on a nearby French
outpost in Beirut, killing 58 French paratroopers. It’s been more than 40 years
since the Beirut massacre of U.S. and French peacekeepers who were there to
help. As for the now-dead Hamas leader, Haniyeh, he
was on State’s list of Specially Designated Global Terrorists. That means he was
“determined by the Secretary of State, in consultation with the Secretary of the
Treasury and the Attorney General, to have committed, or to pose a significant
risk of committing, acts of terrorism that threaten the security of U.S.
nationals or the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United
States.”
The paymaster and armorer of Hezbollah and Hamas is Iran, the world’s No. 1
sponsor of terrorism. Yesterday, Iran’s Ambassador to the United Nations Amir
Saeed Iravani sat before the Security Council and complained about the killings
of Shukr and Haniyeh.
With a straight face he called it “a serious violation of international law” and
“a serious breach of peace and security” and an “aggressive act of terrorism.”
He wasn’t upset when Iran’s terror proxies rained down rockets on soccer fields
or intentionally murder as many Israeli civilians as they could. But when the
terror chiefs get knocked off, then it’s a problem.
But he wasn’t as absurd as Iran’s puppet Syrian representative, who told the
Security Council that the kids playing soccer were killed by Israel and not an
Iranian rocket fired by Hezbollah. Of course, Israel did it.
In May, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court requested arrest
warrants for three top Hamas men for crimes against humanity and war crimes
related to the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. The three men were Ismail Haniyeh,
Mohammed Deif and Yahya Sinwar. Haniyeh’s funeral is
today in Tehran. The Israel Defense Forces may have very likely killed Deif in
southern Gaza a few weeks ago. That leaves only Sinwar still hiding in the Hamas
tunnels under Gaza.
It took four decades to catch up with Shukr. Hopefully, Sinwar’s days are
numbered.
Will Two Attacks Kill the Gaza Talks and Iran-Hezbollah Deterrence?
Dennis Ross, David Makovsky, Neomi Neumann, Farzin Nadimi//The Washington
Institute/Aug 1, 2024
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/will-two-attacks-kill-gaza-talks-and-iran-hezbollah-deterrence
Four Washington Institute experts assess Israel’s calculus behind launching such
high-profile attacks at this juncture, the likely effects on the Gaza hostage
talks, Iran’s possible need for a face-saving military response, and more.
At first glance, the only common thread between the two targeted killings that
rocked the Middle East this week—senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in a July
30 Israeli strike in Beirut, and Hamas Political Bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in
an as-yet-unclaimed attack in Tehran hours later—is that both men were top
members of Iran’s self-styled “axis of resistance.” The strike on Shukr is
easier to explain: Israel held him responsible for a July 27 rocket attack that
killed twelve children in Majdal Shams. Yet while that attack crossed multiple
red lines, Israel still did not want to trigger an all-out war with
Hezbollah—hence its preference for a targeted strike that imposed a visible
price (hitting a top commander in the heart of Beirut) while avoiding a
large-scale operation and heavy civilian casualties. This approach leaves the
question of “what next?” to Hezbollah, even as it demonstrates that Israel still
has superior intelligence on the group and its movements.
The killing of Haniyeh was more surprising—in part because he was reportedly
Qatar’s main interlocutor in the ongoing talks to free hostages captured on
October 7, and also because he was in Iran at the time. Israel has not
acknowledged that it carried out the attack in downtown Tehran (reportedly using
a bomb planted weeks ago), but the nature of the operation and identity of the
target point in its direction. Killing him there is profoundly humiliating for
Iran—Haniyeh had met with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei earlier that day and was
in town for the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian. The embarrassing
optics will put major pressure on the regime to retaliate in some fashion.
Put simply, the killing of Shukr is understandable and easy to justify for
anyone familiar with his operational background and Israel’s long-running
campaign against similar Hezbollah figures, while killing Haniyeh seems more
inscrutable at first glance. True, holding all Hamas leaders accountable for the
atrocities of October 7 may reflect a general conviction among Israelis. Yet
Haniyeh traveled a great deal, providing numerous opportunities to target
him—why now, and why in Tehran?
The answer probably lies in Israel’s desire to reestablish the image of what it
can do to its enemies. Ten months of war in Gaza has eroded this image of
Israeli military power in the Middle East. By killing two top figures in such
close proximity, in two high-profile locations, and using unmistakable military
and intelligence capabilities that no one else in the region possesses, Israel
may have hoped to reassert its strength in dramatic fashion. According to this
line of thinking, Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas needed to know that Israel can and
will kill anyone who directly threatens its citizens or authorizes attacks on
them, with the overarching message that no person or place is beyond its reach.
The practical aim of such an approach is to make deterrence a personal
matter—that is, letting individual commanders and other senior figures know that
they are putting their lives in direct danger simply by planning or approving
attacks on Israelis.
Calculating Iran’s Calculus?
Regardless of Israel’s desire to reestablish deterrence, leaders in Jerusalem
and Washington must still think through how Iran and Hezbollah are most likely
to respond. Yes, this week’s targeted killings could make both of them think
more carefully about how they act on Tehran’s longstanding call to create a
“ring of fire” around Israel. Yet even if they decide to become more careful in
the long term, they will still likely hit back in the near term, greatly raising
the risk of further miscalculation.
For Iran, Haniyeh’s killing requires a significant answer because it took place
in Tehran, implying that the regime cannot protect its guests and “axis” allies.
For Hezbollah, Shukr’s killing is less a matter of humiliation than a reminder
of its critical vulnerabilities. Like Iran, it will be looking intently for
leaks and spies in its intelligence and security apparatus in the coming days.
Yet it will also want to impose a price on Israel sooner rather than later.
Neither Tehran nor its top proxy seem to want a war with Israel, but they also
need to avoid looking weak.
As for what type of retaliation they might launch, they do not have the
capability to carry out matching precision attacks on senior Israeli figures.
Yet they can assault Israel with barrages of missiles and rockets. Iran will
likely orchestrate simultaneous barrages from Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen,
and its militia proxies in Iraq, hoping that some munitions will get through—or,
at the very least, that Israel’s air defense stockpiles will be depleted.
Moreover, after Iran’s direct attack against Israel on April 13 failed to deter
attacks inside Iran, the regime may decide to once again carry out strikes from
its territory. The April attack involved a single round of ballistic and cruise
missile strikes, so Tehran will likely consider multiple rounds this time to
demonstrate that it is moving up the escalation ladder.
The point here is that Israel and its allies need to think through the full
range of options that Iran may consider. In all likelihood, Tehran will push
Hezbollah to attack a fuller array of targets in Israel than it might have if
only Shukr had been killed. And this time, the axis may try to demonstrate a
more effective level of coordination and cooperation.
Whither Gaza Ceasefire Talks?
On the diplomatic front, Tehran will likely ask Hamas to stop all movement
toward a hostage and ceasefire deal in order to avoid giving the impression that
Israeli strikes and military pressure worked. This does not mean the deal will
never come to fruition, but a delay is almost certain.
In Israel, the apparent decision to kill Haniyeh greatly reduces the chances
that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will compromise on his terms for a
hostage deal, especially now that Hamas is likely to harden its terms. In recent
weeks, two competing theories have emerged about how he is approaching the
hostage issue. One theory is that he will become more flexible now that the
Knesset has entered a three-month recess and he is temporarily safe from a
parliamentary vote of no confidence led by far-right members of his coalition,
who oppose any compromise with Hamas.
The second theory holds that his uncompromising stance is more than just
rhetoric—that he truly will not accept a deal until Hamas is sufficiently
weakened militarily. According to this line of thinking, he is dead set on
retaining physical control of two corridors in Gaza that he deems central to
preventing Hamas from reconstituting itself or launching future rocket barrages
against Israel: the Netzarim Corridor in the northern part of the Strip and the
Philadelphia Corridor along the Egyptian border.
The Haniyeh attack would seem to bolster the theory that Netanyahu will not
compromise his terms for a hostage deal—even though these terms have been firmly
rejected by the top Hamas leader on the ground, Yahya al-Sinwar. Indeed,
Netanyahu gave no indication that he was willing to compromise when he met with
President Biden in Washington last week. Rather than using the Knesset recess as
an opportunity for tough compromises, signs have emerged that he may authorize
more strikes on senior Hamas figures. (Notably, Israel’s past efforts to stamp
out the group by targeting its leaders have repeatedly failed to achieve that
goal, as seen in the long-ago killings of Hamas founder Ahmed Yassin, his
replacement Abdul Aziz Rantisi, and military commander Ahmed Jabari.)
Within the broader Hamas leadership, it is unclear whether Haniyeh’s death will
halt or simply delay contacts with Israel on the hostage issue. He was a key
factor in those negotiations given his ties to Qatar, but another Hamas figure
can be expected to fill his shoes at some point (though each of the likeliest
candidates comes with caveats—Khaled Mashal would face opposition from Iran, who
wants a more hardline figure, while Mousa Abu Marzouk lacks support among the
Hamas rank and file). This year’s previous killings of other Hamas leaders such
as Marwan Issa, Muhammad Deif, and Saleh al-Arouri did not prevent talks from
proceeding; it remains to be seen if that will be the case after Haniyeh. At the
very least, the transition will be hindered by the logistical challenge of
convening the Political Bureau in wartime to choose a permanent successor.
Regarding Hamas’s military calculations, Sinwar deputy Khalil al-Haya appeared
at a press conference in Tehran after Haniyeh’s death and stated, “Hamas and
Iran are not interested in a regional war, but nevertheless the killing of
Haniyeh is a crime that must be punished.” This statement contradicts the
original goal laid out by Hamas and Sinwar after October 7, namely, to drag
Israel into a multifront regional war. Haya probably chose that wording to
appease his hosts in Tehran.
Elsewhere in the Palestinian arena, marches were quickly held in the West Bank
and East Jerusalem upon news of Haniyeh’s death, calling on residents to support
Hamas and unify against Israel. A few hours after he was killed, Hamas claimed
responsibility for a shooting and stabbing attack near the Jewish settlement of
Kiryat Arba, describing it as a response to the Tehran attack. Yet a wider
uprising remains unlikely. Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas likewise
condemned Haniyeh’s killing, though he privately views Hamas as a threat and has
long welcomed any development that weakens the group.
Effect on U.S. Interests?
As for how this week’s targeted killings might affect the bilateral relationship
with Washington, Israel may have sought to convey that it will not be held back
by the United States. If so, this message was intended not as a show of defiance
toward its closest ally, but rather as another way of reestablishing deterrence
with Iran and Hezbollah. Perhaps such an assertive, surprising approach can work
in the long term, but neither Netanyahu nor President Biden should have any
illusions about what Iran and Hezbollah may do in the near term.
In the coming days, the Biden administration will understandably be focused on
preventing the conflict from escalating. Ironically, however, Iran’s fear of
drawing America into the fight is the best lever for tempering what the regime
decides to do next, so the administration should use this fear to its advantage.
The current spike in Iranian rhetoric against the United States may be a sign
that Tehran wants to indirectly deter Israel from forcefully responding to any
axis retaliation by increasing the risk of wider escalation. With that in
mind—and having made its point—Israel should now take American interests and
concerns into account.
*Dennis Ross is the counselor and *William Davidson Distinguished Fellow at The
Washington Institute. *David Makovsky is the Institute’s Ziegler Distinguished
Fellow and director of its Koret Project on Arab-Israel Relations.
*Neomi Neumann is a visiting fellow at the Institute and former head of the
research unit at the Israel Security Agency. Farzin Nadimi is a senior fellow
with the Institute.
*Dennis Ross, a former special assistant to President Barack Obama, is the
counselor and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow at The Washington Institute.
*David Makovsky is the Ziegler Distinguished Fellow at The Washington Institute
and director of the Koret Project on Arab-Israel Relations.
*Neomi Neumann is a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute, focusing on
Palestinian affairs. She formerly served as head of the research unit at the
Israel Security Agency, or Shin Bet, and with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Neumann recently began her doctoral studies at Tel Aviv University.
*Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a
Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of
Iran and the Persian Gulf region.
Countering the Islamic State's Gendered Violence and
Minority Persecution
Pari Ibrahim, Devorah Margolin, Gina Vale/The Washington Institute/Aug 1, 2024
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/countering-islamic-states-gendered-violence-and-minority-persecution
To mark the tenth anniversary of the start of the Islamic State's campaign of
genocide against the Yezidi people, watch an expert conversation on the IS
practices of gendered violence and minority atrocities then and now.
Next month marks ten years since the Islamic State began its genocide against
the Yezidi people, yet the group has still not been held fully accountable for
the minority atrocities and gendered violence committed during its temporary
rule over large swaths of Iraq and Syria. How did IS members employ such
violence as part of their governance strategy during the caliphate years? Has
their approach changed since then? And as IS affiliates extend their influence
and areas of control inside and outside the Middle East, what is the
international community doing to curb such violence?
To discuss these issues, The Washington Institute hosted a virtual Policy Forum
with Pari Ibrahim, Devorah Margolin, and Gina Vale as part of its long-running
Counterterrorism Lecture Series. The event will be moderated by Levy Senior
Fellow Aaron Y. Zelin.
*Pari Ibrahim is the founder and executive director of the Free Yezidi
Foundation. Her advocacy for survivors of the Islamic State’s Yezidi genocide
has included numerous publications in media outlets worldwide as well as
testimony before the UN Security Council and other international institutions.
*Devorah Margolin is the Blumenstein-Rosenbloom Senior Fellow at The Washington
Institute, an adjunct professor at Georgetown University, and coeditor of the
new Institute compilation Jihadist Governance and Statecraft. Her research
focuses on strategic communications, propaganda, and the role of women and
gender in violent extremism, among other topics.
*Gina Vale is a criminology lecturer at the University of Southampton and an
associate fellow with the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism. Her
feminist, intersectional research on terrorism and governance includes the
forthcoming book The Unforgotten Women of the Islamic State.
The Policy Forum series is made possible through the generosity of the Florence
and Robert Kaufman Family.
Europe's Recipe for Disaster: The Von der Leyen Program
Drieu Godefridi/ Gatestone Institute./August 2, 2024
[T]his reduction [of greenhouse gas emissions] structures and determines the
whole of the Commission's program, because all human activity -- industrial,
commercial and private -- emits greenhouse gases. In fact, in a program document
published by the Commission in February 2024, already under the aegis of von der
Leyen, are plans to invest 1.5 trillion euros per year in decarbonizing the
European Union, and to this end take authoritarian measures in all areas of
human activity. The amount is equivalent to 10% of Europe's GDP -- every year.
Apparently this policy is the uncompromising model found in every party in
Germany, but apart from a war effort, there is no objective of any kind that has
ever required the diversion of 10% of a continent's GDP by political decree.
European funds, which are distributed to EU member states in various ways, will
henceforth be "conditional on respect for the rule of law"... In other words,
any deviation from the EU's ideological line, in any area, will be subject to
financial sanctions - as is already happening with Hungary. This new direction
for the EU will lead to the ideology of Western Europe being imposed on Eastern
Europe: "open borders", environmentalism, the fight against "hate" -- but only
"hate" from the right of the political spectrum.
In particular, the aim is apparently to penalize social media networks that
refuse to censor their users or, more precisely, that refuse to penalize their
users in the way the EU wants... either X submits to the EU's ideology and
censorship, or X will have a part of its global revenue confiscated.
Again and again, the suggestion is set forth to build a European army,
essentially supported by states such as Germany and Belgium, which... would
already be incapable of defending their own borders without American assistance.
[I]n accordance with the ECHR's case law, any illegal immigrants intercepted in
the Mediterranean, even within sight of the African coast, must be brought to
the European Union to exercise their "rights." A tenfold increase in the number
of border guards would do nothing to change the law in force; as long as the law
is not reformed, unlimited and unvetted migration in Europe will continue.
[A] whole series of new regulations with global ambitions are announced,
confirming the EU's claim to legislate not just for Europe, but for the world.
For instance, a "European Oceans Pact" -- note the "s" in Oceans – is declared:
evidently the EU claims to regulate all the world's oceans, whereas it only dips
its toes in one. Of these groups, the center-right is
by far the largest.... [But] It is the demands of the smallest group —
environmentalists — that dominate....
By refusing on principle ever to govern with real right-wing parties, the
center-right guarantees that the left remains forever in power.
In a speech to the European Parliament on July 18, 2024, the President of the
European Commission, Germany's Ursula von der Leyen, an outspoken
environmentalist, set out her program for its next five years. It owes more to
the Greens (53 MEPs) than to the center-right (188 MEPs). By refusing on
principle ever to govern with real right-wing parties, the center-right
guarantees that the left remains forever in power. When voting no longer serves
any purpose, democracy dies. Pictured: Von der Leyen at the European Parliament
in Strasbourg, France, on July 18, 2024.
In a speech to the European Parliament on July 18, 2024, the President of the
European Commission, Germany's Ursula von der Leyen, an outspoken
environmentalist, set out her program for its next five years. Here are some of
the salient aspects of her proposal, strictly in line with her previous term of
office.
The objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions -- 90% reduction by 2040,
100% by 2050 - is maintained. By definition, this reduction structures and
determines the whole of the Commission's program, because all human activity --
industrial, commercial and private -- emits greenhouse gases. In fact, in a
program document published by the Commission in February 2024, already under the
aegis of von der Leyen, are plans to invest 1.5 trillion euros per year in
decarbonizing the European Union, and to this end take authoritarian measures in
all areas of human activity. The amount is equivalent to 10% of Europe's GDP --
every year. Apparently this policy is the uncompromising model found in every
party in Germany, but apart from a war effort, there is no objective of any kind
that has ever required the diversion of 10% of a continent's GDP by political
decree.
European funds, which are distributed to EU member states in various ways, will
henceforth be "conditional on respect for the rule of law". By the rule of law,
the EU means a very specific and at the same time vague notion, enabling it to
disqualify regimes and personalities with which it disagrees, principally but
not exclusively, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in Hungary.
In other words, any deviation from the EU's ideological line, in any area, will
be subject to financial sanctions - as is already happening with Hungary. This
new direction for the EU will lead to the ideology of Western Europe being
imposed on Eastern Europe: "open borders", environmentalism, the fight against
"hate" -- but only "hate" from the right of the political spectrum. For example,
far-left MEP Rima Hassan frequently issues direct threats against colleagues who
don't share her hatred of Israel, without any consequences. The countries of
Eastern Europe are the main beneficiaries of EU funds. It remains to be seen
whether Eastern Europe will be taken in.
"We will start by focusing on the implementation and enforcement of the digital
laws adopted during the last mandate. Tech giants must assume responsibility for
their enormous systemic power in our society and economy. We have begun the
active enforcement of the Digital Services Act and the Digital Markets Act. We
will ramp up and intensify our enforcement in the coming mandate", explains von
der Leyen. In particular, the aim is apparently to penalize social media
networks that refuse to censor their users or, more precisely, that refuse to
penalize their users in the way the EU wants. The first to be targeted is X,
formerly known as Twitter, as Commissioner Thierry Breton has made no secret:
either X submits to the EU's ideology and censorship, or X will have a part of
its global revenue confiscated.
As has been stated for the last 80 years, a plan has been announced to construct
a genuine "Europe of defence". Again and again, the suggestion is set forth to
build a European army, essentially supported by states such as Germany and
Belgium, which devote a royal 1% of GDP to their military defenses and which
would already be incapable of defending their own borders without American
assistance.
Von der Leyen also announced the tripling of the FRONTEX border guards to 30,000
staffers. The problem is that, under EU law and the jurisprudence of the
European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), these border guards, whatever their
numbers, are essentially providing a free ferry service between Africa and
Europe. Indeed, in accordance with the ECHR's case law, any illegal immigrants
intercepted in the Mediterranean, even within sight of the African coast, must
be brought to the European Union to exercise their "rights." A tenfold increase
in the number of border guards would do nothing to change the law in force; as
long as the law is not reformed, unlimited and unvetted migration in Europe will
continue. As von der Leyen points out: "We will always respect human rights and
will ensure that those who have a right to stay can do so, and can receive
essential support to integrate into communities."
Finally, a whole series of new regulations with global ambitions are announced,
confirming the EU's claim to legislate not just for Europe, but for the world.
For instance, a "European Oceans Pact" -- note the "s" in Oceans – is declared:
evidently the EU claims to regulate all the world's oceans, whereas it only dips
its toes in one. Calculated in terms of purchasing
power parity – meaning disregarding the strength of the dollar -- the average
GDP per capita in the EU as of 2022 is 72% of the average GDP per American.
Given that economic growth is higher every year in the United States than in the
EU, this gap will only widen. This backwardness is confirmed by the innovation
vitality of the American economy. In just one example, compare artificial
intelligence, essentially an American innovation, to the lack of creativity in
the European economy. NVIDIA's success is unthinkable in Europe.
Three factors might help to explain Europe's economic backwardness compared to
the United States: the cost of energy, which is five to ten times higher in
Europe than in the US; the greater difficulty in Europe of concentrating private
capital to invest in R&D and finally, the pull of the "mad legislator", which is
even worse in Europe than in the US. For example, Apple recently settled an EU
investigation regarding its restriction on third-party developers accessing its
payment technology, which could have led to a fine of 10% of its annual revenue
for non-compliance. Apple's total net sales in 2023 were $383.3 billion, so a
10% fine would amount to $38.3 billion. Given Apple's operating income in Europe
is $36.1 billion, non-compliance with EU regulations could result in fines
exceeding its regional earnings.
How is it, when all these facts are known, that von der Leyen was reappointed to
her post, while the Greens lost the European Parliament elections, and the
right-wing parties of all persuasions won them by a wide margin? Perhaps this
seeming paradox can be explained by the fact that the center-right, the largest
party bloc in the European Parliament, is ideologically subservient to the left,
on two levels: 1) by adhering to most of the dogmas of the left, starting with
environmentalism, and 2) by refusing on principle any coalition with real
right-wing parties such as Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy or,
in France, Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN).
This ensures that, while losing elections, the left can stay in power. The new
von der Leyen majority consists of four parliamentary groups: the center-right,
the socialists, the left-wing liberals and the far-left environmentalists. Of
these groups, the center-right is by far the largest. It would therefore be
logical for them to dominate von der Leyen's program. But that is not what takes
place. It is the demands of the smallest group — environmentalists — that
dominate: continuation of the Green Deal, total decarbonization by 2050.
European power is a mirror image of its two driving forces -- France and Germany
-- where the center-right parties behave in the same way: ideological submission
to the left and a ban on the right governing. In Germany, the right-wing
political party Alternative for Germany (AfD), finds itself in a position to
govern several regions with the center-right. But everywhere in Germany, the
center-right prefers to ally with the left, the environmentalists, sometimes
even the communists, than to govern with the AfD. In France, Le Pen's RN clearly
won the European elections, then the first round of legislative elections. The
center-right immediately announced that it preferred a victory for the far left
and the communists to a victory for Le Pen.
The post-war European citizen has never voted so far to the right. He is
harvesting a program that has never been so extremely left-wing. The von der
Leyen program owes more to the Greens (53 MEPs) than to the center-right (188
MEPs). By refusing on principle ever to govern with real right-wing parties, the
center-right guarantees that the left remains forever in power. When voting no
longer serves any purpose, democracy dies.
This article is dedicated to Isolde.
**Drieu Godefridi is a jurist (University Saint-Louis, University of Louvain),
philosopher (University Saint-Louis, University of Louvain) and PhD in legal
theory (Paris IV-Sorbonne). He is an entrepreneur, CEO of a European private
education group and director of PAN Medias Group. He is the author of The Green
Reich (2020).
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Harris has work to do if she wants to be US president
Dalia Al-Aqidi/Arab News/August 02, 2024
Whenever I contemplate writing about US Vice President Kamala Harris, I feel an
overwhelming urge to say that, despite my fundamental disagreements with the
policies of the Democratic Party, I was genuinely delighted when a woman was
selected in 2020 to hold the second-highest office in the country. It was a
significant milestone and a moment of progress I wholeheartedly supported.
However, my initial optimism has receded.
In American politics, choosing a leader is a big deal. We need someone with
experience, achievements and strong leadership skills. Although her expected
candidacy for November’s presidential election is historic and a symbol of
progress, Harris still has to prove she has the ability to lead the nation.
The vice president has had an impressive career, with roles as district attorney
of San Francisco, attorney general of California and senator for California.
However, her time in these positions has not always been successful. As district
attorney, she made some decisions that upset people at both ends of the
political spectrum.
As vice president, Harris was entrusted with several high-stakes
responsibilities, including addressing the root causes of migration from Central
America and tackling the voting rights crisis. Her role in addressing migration
was prominently highlighted when President Joe Biden appointed her the
unofficial “border czar” in March 2021. Although not officially endorsed by the
administration, this title became a focal point of both media and political
discourse.
The chaotic situation at the border has persisted, with issues such as crowded
shelters, strained resources and a lack of adequate long-term solutions. Many
observers argue that the former California senator’s efforts have not produced
the clear and decisive action needed to stabilize the situation. The
administration’s approach has lacked strategic coherence and failed to
effectively address the underlying causes of migration, such as economic
instability and violence in the source countries.
Harris’s vision for America includes admirable goals such as social justice, but
it so far lacks specifics.
Similarly, Harris’s work on voting rights has faced challenges. The crucial
voting rights bills she supported have struggled to gain traction in Congress.
This legislative stalemate reflects a broader difficulty in translating advocacy
into concrete policy changes.
The liberal media’s portrayal of Harris’ role as border czar has also evolved
lately. Initially, the term was widely used to highlight her high-profile
responsibilities and the administration’s focus on migration issues. However,
with her ascent to the top of the Democratic ticket as the presumptive
presidential nominee following President Biden's exit, the use of the title has
vanished. This shift underscores a broader trend whereby media narratives are
adapted based on political shifts and evolving priorities.
This leads us to foreign policy, in which Harris’s experience is limited. While
she has been involved in some international issues as vice president, her
foreign policy credentials are not as robust as those of her predecessors. With
today’s complex global challenges, a candidate with strong foreign policy
experience could gain the upper hand.
National leadership requires a clear and compelling vision for the future.
Harris’s vision for America includes admirable goals such as social justice, but
it so far lacks specifics and strategic planning will be needed to achieve these
changes.
Leadership requires more than ambition and symbolic victories: it demands a
track record of effective governance, and the ability to unite and inspire and a
clear, actionable vision for the future. Harris has work to do if she is going
to beat Donald Trump in the Nov. 5 election.
• Dalia Al-Aqidi is executive director at the American Center for Counter
Extremism.
Realpolitik guiding Turkish-Armenian normalization process
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/August 02, 2024
A notable milestone was achieved on Tuesday, when the special representatives
from Turkiye and Armenia, who have been tasked with the normalization of
relations between the two nations, met at the Margara-Alican border crossing,
which has been closed since 1993. The representatives reportedly began their
meeting on the Armenian side of the border before proceeding to the Turkish
side. The potential for a breakthrough had been hinted at the previous week,
when Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan inspected the fully prepared
Margara checkpoint on the Armenian side, as residents on both sides of the
border watched such developments with cautious interest. While the meeting at
the border was symbolically significant, those familiar with Turkish-Armenian
normalization efforts understand that symbolism plays a crucial role in their
diplomatic engagements.
In February 2023, following devastating earthquakes in Turkiye, the sole land
border crossing between the two countries was reopened for the first time in
more than 30 years to facilitate the passage of humanitarian aid. This reopening
was symbolically important as the two nations do not have formal relations,
although a rapprochement process is ongoing. The same border crossing had also
been used in 1988 following a major earthquake in Armenia, when the Turkish Red
Crescent Society sent aid to the affected areas.
Tuesday’s meeting marked the first encounter of the special representatives
since the one held in Vienna in July 2022, which was their fifth meeting. At
that time, the two sides agreed to allow third-country citizens to cross the
border, although this agreement was never put into practice.
The idea of opening the border crossing as a step toward normalization is not
new and this is not the first time Turkiye and Armenia have come close to
normalizing their bilateral relations. In 2008, then-Turkish President Abdullah
Gul visited Yerevan to watch a football match between the two national teams, an
effort termed “football diplomacy.” This visit followed a historic
reconciliation process initiated in 2009, when the two sides signed protocols in
Zurich aimed at normalizing diplomatic relations and reopening the border.
However, this initiative, which was part of Turkiye’s “zero problems with
neighbors” policy, was unsuccessful due to unresolved territorial disputes over
Nagorno-Karabakh. The protocols were never ratified, though the effort was seen
as a significant moment in Turkish-Armenian relations.
The current regional and domestic context is markedly different from 2009. In
the post-2009 era, Turkiye has been preoccupied with issues related to the Arab
uprisings, particularly in Syria, shifting its foreign policy focus away from
Armenia. Meanwhile, for Yerevan, relations with Turkiye have consistently been a
top priority. An Armenian journalist once noted: “Armenia occupies the ninth or
10th place in Turkiye’s foreign policy agenda, overshadowed by Syria, Iraq, the
EU and the US. In Armenia, however, issues related to Turkiye are at the
forefront of foreign policy and media coverage.” This highlights the disparity
in how the two countries prioritize their interests and perceived threats.
This is not the first time Turkiye and Armenia have come close to normalizing
their bilateral relations
However, currently, both nations face urgent issues that necessitate
cooperation, including the climate crisis, migration challenges and economic
difficulties. Regional events are also playing a role in shaping attitudes
toward the stalemate in bilateral diplomatic relations.
With Russia focusing on Ukraine and Iran dealing with its own problems,
Turkiye’s outreach to Armenia and the Armenian government’s pragmatism and
willingness to seize this opportunity to advance bilateral relations is
important. However, Armenian officials face domestic opposition from
nationalists and hard-liners, as well as from the global diaspora. There are
existing anti-Turkish and anti-Armenian sentiments in both countries that
complicate the normalization efforts. In the Turkish-Armenian context, it is
important to distinguish between normalization and reconciliation, which are two
different processes. While normalization requires the opening of borders and
establishment of diplomatic relations between states, reconciliation is a
thorough process that requires the establishment of positive relations between
two societies. This is tougher than just inking deals at the diplomatic table
because there are ongoing historical and ideological sensitivities among the
respective publics.
That is why Turkiye’s normalization phase with Armenia differs significantly
from its efforts with Egypt, Israel or the Gulf states. Various material and
nonmaterial issues are in play, as well as the involvement of third parties such
as Azerbaijan and the US, which have played both constructive and destructive
roles at times in the Turkish-Armenian normalization efforts. Previous
normalization attempts have gone through several contradictory phrases,
ultimately bearing no fruit.
In the current context, the long-awaited reopening of the border between these
two neighboring countries would not only help in bridging the psychological
divide between their societies but also provide substantial economic benefits to
both sides. Armenia is grappling with severe economic challenges, with many
families relying on remittances from relatives abroad.
Armenia, which has a population of about 3 million, shares borders with
Azerbaijan, Turkiye, Georgia and Iran. The first two of these neighbors have
closed their borders, Iran is under sanctions and Georgia is not in a position
to support the Armenian economy. Given the economic and moral toll from the 2020
Nagorno-Karabakh war, reopening the border with Turkiye could be crucial for
Armenia. The economic advantages of this development can be expected to
materialize swiftly, leading to significant improvements. Moreover, for Armenia,
the opening of the border would pave the way for opening a path to the West,
while for Turkiye it would widen its influence in the Caucasus region.
While significant challenges and domestic opposition remain, the potential
reopening of the Turkiye-Armenia border offers a promising opportunity for both
nations to address economic needs and bridge historical divides. This is why,
maybe, this time, both states have been prioritizing realpolitik over
idealpolitik.
• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s
relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz