Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 14-15/2024
Israel Strikes a Hezbollah Site in Baalbek Area
Lufthansa Suspends Flights to Lebanon Until Thursday
Beirut International Airport Resumes Operations
Fadi Hanna Elected President of the Order of Engineers of Beirut
Halabi: Schools to Reopen on Monday
Rai: Failure to Elect a President ‘Undermines the National Pact’
The Archbishop of Beirut, Elias Audi: The Displaced Are Entitled to Dignity, but Not at the Expense of the Lebanese
Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon: Strike Against Israel Is a Successful Punishment
Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon reopen airspace after Iran attacks
Israeli airstrike targets Hezbollah site in eastern Lebanon: AFP
Lebanon lifts airspace closure: Beirut Airport resumes operations
Charles Jabbour: Pascal Sleiman's murder aimed at inciting Christian-Syrian confrontation
Cabinet to hold emergency session on Monday morning

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on April 14-15/2024
The shadow war between Iran and Israel has been exposed. What happens next?
Israel’s Netanyahu vows victory after Iran strikes, fears of wider conflict grow
US will not take part in retaliatory action against Iran, White House says
Iran warns Israel against retaliation, global powers urge restraint
Biden says US helped Israel down nearly all Iran attacks
Hamas and Israel exchange recriminations over stalled Gaza talks
Thousands gather in Iran in show of support for attack on Israel
Iran and Israel: From allies to deadly enemies
Israel puts Golan, Nevatim, Dimona, Eilat residents on impact standby
As Jordan, US forces intercept Iranian drones bound for Israel, Tehran warns Amman against aiding Israel
Reaction to Iran’s drone, missile attack on Israel
Iran told Turkey in advance of its operation against Israel, Turkish source says
Iranian Drones Cast Shadow Over Iraqi Prime Minister's Visit to Washington
US Urges Caution for Israel After Iranian Drone and Missile Strike
Iran's "True Promise" Operation Targets Israel: A Costly Response
Iranian Attack May Shake Oil Market, But Not for Long: Analysts
Iran attack was 'declaration of war', Israeli president says - but insists 'we are seeking peace'

Titles For The Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources on April 14-15/2024
The Destruction of Iran's Terrorist Hub in Damascus Was Entirely Justified/Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/April 14, 2024
Ayn Al-Asad Number Two – Iran Pre-Coordinated Its Attack Against Israel With The U.S. So That No One Will Be Hurt And War With Israel Will Be Avoided/Yigal Carmon/MEMRI Daily Brief/April 14/2024
Iran’s bullet that missed the target/Dr. Abdulaziz Sager/Arab News/April 15/2024
Iran is staring down the barrel of a very large gun/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/April 15/2024
Iran’s failed attack on Israel a mere face-saving exercise/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/April 15/2024
Rising Iran-Israel tensions threaten global stability/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/April 15/2024

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 14-15/2024
Israel Strikes a Hezbollah Site in Baalbek Area
This Is Beirut/April 14/2024
Israel Sunday struck a Hezbollah site in Lebanon’s east near the Syrian border, the Israeli army and a source from the Iran-backed group said, as tensions soared after Iran directly attacked Israel. The Hezbollah source told AFP that “the Israeli strike targeted an area… near Baalbek and targeted a two-story building belonging to Hezbollah,” adding there were no casualties. Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reported that “an enemy air strike targeted a building” in the village of Nabi Sheet and “destroyed it.” An AFP photographer at the site saw the concrete and steel wreckage of the building, levelled in the attack. The Israeli army said in a statement that in response to launches overnight, “fighter jets struck a significant Hezbollah weapons manufacturing site” in the Nabi Sheet area “deep inside Lebanon.”Earlier Sunday, Hezbollah said it had twice launched barrages of Katyusha rockets towards the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, saying they were in response to Israeli attacks on “villages and towns” in Lebanon. It has launched similar barrages in the past, but Sunday’s launches coincided with a major Iranian drone and missile attack against Israel. The Iranian attack was in response to an April 1 air strike widely blamed on Israel that destroyed an Iranian consulate building in Damascus, killing seven Revolutionary Guards, including two generals. Hamas ally Hezbollah has exchanged near-daily cross-border fire with Israel since the Palestinian militant group attacked southern Israel on October 7, triggering war in the Gaza Strip.
The violence, which has largely been contained to the Israeli-Lebanese border area, has killed at least 364 people in Lebanon, mostly Hezbollah fighters but also including at least 70 civilians, according to an AFP tally. Hezbollah on Sunday said one of its fighters from south Lebanon’s Khiam had been killed, without specifying where or when he died. The Israeli army had also said its fighter jets struck Hezbollah “military structures” in south Lebanon overnight, including in Khiam. The NNA reported Israeli attacks on various locations in south Lebanon overnight, and at least one strike on Sunday afternoon.

Lufthansa Suspends Flights to Lebanon Until Thursday
This Is Beirut/April 14/2024
German airline Lufthansa announced on Sunday that, due to the situation in the Middle East, it will “suspend its regular flights to and from Tel Aviv, Erbil and Amman until at least Tuesday, April 16,” as well as those to “Beirut and Tehran that will remain suspended until at least Thursday, April 18.” The group, which includes Lufthansa and the Swiss and Austrian airlines, added in a statement that it was “continuously monitoring and assessing the security situation in the Middle East and is in close contact with the authorities.” As a reminder, the German airline “had already decided on Friday, April 12, to fly around Iranian airspace up to and including Thursday, April 18, and thus temporarily suspend flights to Tehran.”

Beirut International Airport Resumes Operations
This Is Beirut/April 15/2024
Beirut International Airport resumed normal operations at 7:00 AM on Sunday. Lebanese airspace had been preventively closed from 1:00 AM until 7:00 AM, following Iran’s attack on Israel. For its part, MEA had announced the postponement of its flights originally scheduled for Sunday, April 14 to dates that will be determined later. “Only five flights have been maintained, with departures scheduled for 9:00 AM: Paris (ME1209), Paris (ME211), Frankfurt (ME217), Rome (ME231), Düsseldorf (ME247).”

Fadi Hanna Elected President of the Order of Engineers of Beirut
This Is Beirut/April 15/2024
Fadi Hanna, whose candidacy was backed by the Free Patriotic Movement and Hezbollah, was elected president of the Order of Engineers of Beirut on Sunday, succeeding to Aref Yassine. He beat his rival Pierre Geara, supported by the Future Movement, the Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb, by a margin of more than 500 votes: 4,634 votes for Fadi Hanna against 4,129 for Pierre Geara. At the end of a long election day during which 9,500 engineers voted out of 36,000 who had paid their dues, five members of the Order’s Council were also elected: Ahmed Najmeddine (4,567 votes), Haytham Ismail (4,433 votes), Hassan Jawad (4,297 votes), Jacques Ghosn (4,125 votes) and Nasser Eido (3,839). In Tripoli, Chawki Fatfat was elected head of the Order of Engineers with 1,707 votes against 1,543 for his rival, Moursi el-Masri. The list he chaired was supported mainly by the Free Patriotic Movement and the Marada.
Four new members of the Order were also elected: Michel Feghali (1.482 votes), Mahmoud el-Saj (1.464 votes), Bassem Khayat (1.556 votes) and Salim Nachabe (1.491 votes).

Halabi: Schools to Reopen on Monday
This Is Beirut/April 14/2024
Caretaker Minister of Education and Higher Education Abbas Halabi has announced the resumption of classes on Monday, April 15, after the Fitr holiday.
Schools and institutes located in border villages in South Lebanon are however exempt from this measure. Halabi gave their directors the freedom to decide whether to resume classes or not, in consultation with the heads of the ministry’s regional education offices.

Rai: Failure to Elect a President ‘Undermines the National Pact’
This Is Beirut/April 14/2024
Maronite Patriarch Bechara Rai considered that “the obstinacy in preventing the election of a President of the Republic undermines the (national) pact and the ‘culture of unity in diversity’ because the President is the guarantor of national unity and his absence leads to the disintegration of the Lebanese family.”In his Sunday sermon, Rai emphasized that “the ‘culture of unity in diversity’ is at the heart of the Lebanese system and entity as established by the founders in the National Pact of 1943 and renewed in the Taif Agreement of 1989.” He continued, “This culture is founded on living together through equality in the exercise of power.”For Rai, national unity requires “reforms within the institutions of the State and their structure to guarantee the interests of citizens.” But it also means “being a messenger of peace and understanding between the peoples of the Arab region and the world, respecting human rights and keeping (Lebanon) free from conflict.”To this end, the patriarch urged neutrality on the part of the government, which “must not take sides in international and regional crises, except when it comes to major Arab causes.” Additionally, “the central power must remain neutral and not take sides with any community or faction in internal crises,” he stressed. In conclusion, he called on “the political forces to work to strengthen the bonds of the Lebanese family in order to face the current regional dangers together.”

The Archbishop of Beirut, Elias Audi: The Displaced Are Entitled to Dignity, but Not at the Expense of the Lebanese
This Is Beirut/April 14/2024
The Archbishop of Beirut, Elias Audi, believes that displaced Syrians in Lebanon have the right to live in dignity, “in their own country, and not at the expense of the Lebanese.” “Lebanon’s salvation can only be at the hands of leaders who will put the country’s interests above all others, disregarding their egoism, their personal interests, and their ties, but above all their gains,” he insisted in his Sunday homily. In this context, Metropolitan Audi took aim at political leaders and officials who are slow to “restructure the state, starting with the presidency of the Republic, to manage the affairs of the country and its citizens.”
In this context, he denounced “the security chaos resulting from impunity, the absence of border controls, and the massive flow of non-Lebanese (alluding to displaced Syrians, editor’s note), most of whom are in an illegal situation or are outlaws, as the statistics show.” “They commit crimes against the Lebanese, such as those in Achrafieh and Jbeil,” he continued, referring to the crime that claimed the life of a senior in Sioufi, as well as the murder of Pascal Sleiman, coordinator of the Lebanese Forces in the Jbeil region, who was kidnapped last Sunday and whose body was found on Monday, in Syria.
“Of course, we respect their humanity and their right to lead a dignified life, in complete safety, but in their country and not at the expense of the lives of the Lebanese and their dignity,” insisted Archbishop Audi, inviting those responsible to “apply the laws, work to repatriate the displaced, as well as exert pressure on international bodies to help them in this direction and to offer those returning to their country the necessary aid.” Referring to the recent visit to Beirut by the Cypriot President, Nikos Christodoulides, to discuss the flow of migrants from Lebanon, Archbishop Audi wondered whether the Lebanese did not also have the right to be concerned about their fate and that of their country. “No one knows the number of displaced people whose situation is illegal, who don’t pay taxes, who represent a security, economic and demographic danger,” he insisted. “It is the duty of those in charge to unify their positions on this issue, to develop a clear strategy for dealing with it, and to have the courage to confront the international community in this regard.”For the Metropolitan, “Those in charge must have the will to protect the people from any danger and to apply the laws to anyone present on Lebanese soil.” In this context, he invited all those in charge to “take things seriously to avoid the worst.” “Years go by without any serious solutions being found. Some people hide this issue, others neglect it, while others still do nothing but talk and denounce,” insisted Audi. “It is the duty of those in charge to talk less and work more. Citizens are not responsible. Governors are, and it’s up to them to find solutions. Citizens, for their part, must be vigilant and not allow themselves to be drawn into illegal affairs that lead to conflict and confrontation.” Affirming that “man must live in dignity,” Archbishop Audi noted in conclusion that “the displaced are victims, and all parties have a duty to find a solution to their situation, knowing that this must not be at the expense of other people.”

Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon: Strike Against Israel Is a Successful Punishment
This Is Beirut/April 14/2024
Iranian ambassador to Lebanon Mojtaba Amani hailed, on Sunday, his country’s drone and missile strikes against Israel as a successful act to “punish” the Hebrew state for attacking Tehran’s consulate in Damascus on April 1.“Iran has proved that it has succeeded in its move to punish Israel and is determined to defend itself,” Amani said on his X account. The Iranian diplomat also served a straight warning to Israel and its allies: “The biggest mistake of this criminal entity and its allies would be to try to respond to (Saturday night’s) operation, in which case Iran’s punitive policy will change.”
He also blasted “American support for the Zionist entity,” which he said “did not prevent Iranian missiles from reaching their main target at a distance of 1,100 kilometers.” At least 13 people, including two generals of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, were killed in the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. For his part, the pro-Hezbollah Grand Jaafari Mufti, Sheikh Ahmad Kabalan, claimed in a statement on Sunday that the Iranian strikes exposed Israel’s fragility, as well as the failure of its allies to defend it. He said that through this act, “Tehran and Tehran only” safeguarded the dignity of the peoples and entities of the Middle East, including Palestine. Later during the day, Hezbollah in turn hailed a “qualitative and unprecedented feat”. In a statement, he considered that “the attack achieved its military objectives with precision, despite the intervention of the United States, its Western allies and their regional instruments”.“In the long term, the political and strategic objectives of this important development will gradually emerge”, said the pro-Iranian group, adding that the drone attack on Israel “will lay the foundations for a new victorious stage for the Palestinian cause and the Arab nation in conflict” with Israël.

Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon reopen airspace after Iran attacks
REUTERS/April 14, 2024
CAIRO: Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon have reopened their airspace on Sunday after closing it late on Saturday as Iran launched drone and missile attacks against Israel, the three countries said on Sunday. Jordan’s state TV said the country had resumed air traffic operations, citing aviation authorities. The opening of its airspace came more than three hours earlier than scheduled. Jordan announced the closure of its airspace to all incoming, departing, and transiting flights temporarily starting from 20:00 UTC, 11:00pm local time on Saturday, for several hours. The commission said at the time that the decision was taken to ensure the security and safety of civil aviation in the Jordanian airspace. Iraq’s aviation authority said security risks had now been overcome. Many flying objects were spotted over Jordan with images and videos circulated on social media showing air-defense systems shooting them down over the capital Amman and the northwestern regions on the borders with Syria and Israel. Following a cabinet meeting early on Sunday, Jordanian government called for self-restraint and de-escalation, the Jordanian news agency, Petra, reported. The government also said that Jordan dealt with some “flying objects” over the Kingdom on Sunday night and shot them down, adding that some shrapnels fell on uninhabited areas and no injuries were reported. Lebanon said its airport will resume its activities after the overnight closure, state TV reported. Tehran’s Mehrabad airport and airports in several other Iranian cities have canceled domestic flights until Monday morning due to Middle East tensions, the semi-official Mehr news agency reported on Sunday, as the country’s western airspace remains off limits to flights. Iran launched explosive drones and fired missiles at Israel late on Saturday — its first direct attack on Israeli territory in a retaliatory strike that raises the threat of wider regional conflict. Jordan, which lies between Iran and Israel, had readied air defenses to intercept any drones or missiles that violated its territory, two regional security sources said. US and British warplanes were involved in shooting down some Israel-bound drones over the Iraq-Syria border area, Israel’s Channel 12 reported. Iranian airports cancel flights until Monday morning. Several Iranian airports including Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International have canceled flights until Monday, Iranian state media reported on Sunday, as tensions flared in the Middle East with Iran’s attack on Israel overnight. “All flights from Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport have been canceled until 6 a.m. (0230 GMT) following an announcement by Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization,” the airport’s executive told the Iranian Student News Agency. Domestic flights from Tehran’s Mehrabad Airport and airports in Shiraz, Isfahan, Bushehr, Kerman, Ilam, and Sanandaj have also been canceled until Monday morning, according to Iran’s Airports and Air Navigation Company, as the country’s western airspace remains off limits to flights. Major airlines across the Middle East have announced the cancelation of some of their flights, while having to reroute others.

Israeli airstrike targets Hezbollah site in eastern Lebanon: AFP
AFP/April 14, 2024
A source within the Hezbollah party reported that an Israeli airstrike targeted a party site in eastern Lebanon near the Syrian border on Sunday, amid escalating tensions following a direct Iranian attack on Israel. The source told Agence France-Presse that "the Israeli raid targeted the area between Nabi Chit and Saraain near Baalbek, hitting a two-story building belonging to Hezbollah," noting no casualties.

Lebanon lifts airspace closure: Beirut Airport resumes operations
LBCI/April 14, 2024
The General Directorate of Civil Aviation announced on Sunday that the Beirut-Rafic Al Hariri International Airport has reopened for all incoming and outgoing flights.
Prior to this announcement, Lebanon's Ministry of Public Works and Transport had ordered the closure of Lebanese airspace to air traffic from 1:00 AM to 7:00 AM on Sunday. These measures were implemented in response to recent developments in the region, prompted by Iran's launch of drones and missiles at Israel late on Saturday, leading several countries to close their airspace.

Charles Jabbour: Pascal Sleiman's murder aimed at inciting Christian-Syrian confrontation
LBCI/April 14, 2024
Charles Jabbour, head of Lebanese Forces media and communications department, believed that the kidnapping and killing of Pascal Sleiman was intended to stir up Christians into conflict or confrontation with Syrians. He stated that there was a clear attempt to shift the confrontation from the south to the Lebanese interior. On LBCI's "Nharkom Said" TV show, Jabbour emphasized that the Lebanese Forces party insists on considering the crime an 'assassination' until the investigation proves otherwise. He questioned, "Does it make sense for a mere robbery gang to transport the body all the way from Lebanon to Syria? Why didn't they simply abandon it on the roadside? And why did they intentionally dispose of it in Syria, in such a conspicuous manner, capturing the scene on film as it unfolded?"

Cabinet to hold emergency session on Monday morning
LBCI/April 14, 2024
The Caretaker Cabinet will hold an emergency session at 9:30 a.m. on Monday, April 15, 2024, at the Grand Serail to discuss the current developments on regional and domestic levels.The General Secretariat of the Council of Ministers announced that the Caretaker Prime Minister, “in line with his constitutional duties and a sense of national responsibility, extends this invitation to all ministers to participate in the scheduled session in response to the call of national duty, especially given the delicate circumstances the country is going through.”

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on April 13-14/2024
The shadow war between Iran and Israel has been exposed. What happens next?
KAREEM CHEHAYEB/AP/April 14, 2024
Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel early Sunday marked a change in approach for Tehran, which had relied on proxies across the Middle East since the start of the Israel-Hamas war in October. All eyes are now on whether Israel chooses to take further military action, while Washington seeks diplomatic measures instead to ease regional tensions. Iran says the attack was in response to an airstrike widely blamed on Israel that destroyed what Iran says were consular offices in Syria and killed two generals with its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard earlier this month. Israel said almost all the over 300 drones and missiles launched overnight by Iran were shot down by its anti-missile defense system, backed by the U.S. and Britain. The sole reported casualty was a wounded girl in southern Israel, and a missile struck an Israeli airbase, causing light damage. Still, the chief of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard called the operation successful. Iran has managed to strike a balance between retaliating publicly for the strike in Damascus and avoiding provoking further Israeli military action leading to a much wider conflict, said Mona Yacoubian, vice president of the Middle East and North Africa center at the U.S. Institute of Peace. “Both (Iran and Israel) are able at this point to claim victory and step down off the precipice, particularly since there were no Israeli civilians killed,” Yacoubian said. The world was still waiting, however, for the result of an Israeli War Cabinet meeting on Sunday. Israeli hard-liners have pushed for a response, but others have suggested restraint, saying Israel should focus on strengthening budding ties with Arab partners. “We will build a regional coalition and collect the price from Iran, in the way and at the time that suits us,” said Benny Gantz, a member of the War Cabinet. Analysts say Iran sent a message that it would be willing to escalate and change its rules of engagement in its shadow war with Israel. “It’s a warning shot, saying that if Israel breaks the rules, there are consequences,” said Magnus Ranstorp, strategic adviser at the Swedish Defense University.
Iran’s attack has further stoked fears of the war in Gaza causing regional havoc. But Iran maintains that it does not seek all-out war across the region. Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said in a post on X, formerly Twitter, that Iran has “no intention of continuing defensive operations” at this point unless it is attacked. Iran stressed that it targeted Israeli facilities involved in the Damascus attack, not civilians or “economic areas.”After Israel began its offensive in Gaza against Hamas, Iran-backed groups were involved militarily while Tehran sat on the sidelines. Lebanon’s Hezbollah group fired rockets into northern Israel. Yemen’s Houthi rebels attacked Western ships on the Red Sea. An umbrella group of Iran-backed Iraqi militias attacked U.S. military positions in Iraq and Syria. Now, Tehran is “willing to up the ante” without relying on proxies, said the director of the Carnegie Middle East Center, Maha Yahya.
Still, Iran only went so far. “They gave enough warning that this was coming, and I think they knew that they (the drones and missiles) would be brought down before they reached Israeli territory,” Yahya said. She also noted that the recent mounting pressure on Israel over its conduct in Gaza has now shifted to deescalating regional tensions instead. Israel taking further military action does not seem popular among its allies including the United States, said Eldad Shavit, who heads the Israel-U.S. Research Program at Israeli think tank the Institute for National Security Studies. White House national security spokesman John Kirby told NBC that President Joe Biden does not want an escalation in the regional conflict or a “wider war” with Iran, and is “working on the diplomatic side of this personally.” Urgent meetings of the G7 — the informal gathering of industrialized countries that includes the United States, United Kingdom, and France — and the U.N. Security Council were being held Sunday. G7 meeting participants in a statement unanimously condemned Iran's attack, saying “we stand ready to take further measures now and in response to further destabilizing initiatives.”

Israel’s Netanyahu vows victory after Iran strikes, fears of wider conflict grow
REUTERS/April 14, 2024
JERUSALEM: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed on Sunday his country would achieve victory after the military said it shot down almost all the more than 300 drones and missiles launched by Iran in a sharp escalation of the Middle East conflict. Tehran’s attacks late on Saturday, launched after a suspected Israeli air strike on its embassy compound in Damascus on April 1 that killed officers of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, raised the threat of a wider regional conflict. Iran had relied on its proxies across the region to attack Israeli and US targets in a show of support for the Palestinian militant group Hamas in the Gaza war with Israel, which shows no sign of easing despite numerous mediations efforts. “We intercepted, we repelled, together we shall win,” Netanyahu posted on X. The Israeli military said the armed forces had shot down more than 99 percent of the Iranian drones and missiles and were discussing follow-up options. Israel’s Channel 12 TV cited an unnamed Israeli official as saying there would be a “significant response” to the attack. The war in Gaza, which Israel invaded after an attack by Iran-backed Hamas on Oct. 7, has ratcheted up tensions in the region, spreading to fronts with Lebanon and Syria and drawing long-range fire at Israeli targets from as far away as Yemen and Iraq. Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi warned Sunday Israel and its allies against any “reckless” actions after Tehran’s drone and missile attack in retaliation for a deadly strike on its Damascus consulate. “If the Zionist regime (Israel) or its supporters demonstrate reckless behavior, they will receive a decisive and much stronger response,” Raisi said in a statement.
’Push toward escalation'
Iran’s most powerful ally in the region, the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah — which has been exchanging fire with Israel since the Gaza war began — said early on Sunday it had fired rockets at an Israeli base. Drones were also reportedly launched against Israel by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi group, which has attacked shipping lanes in an around the Red Sea to show solidarity with Hamas, British maritime security company Ambrey said in a statement. Those clashes now threaten to morph into a direct open conflict pitting Iran and its regional allies against Israel and its main supporter, the United States. Regional power Egypt urged “utmost restraint.”Israel’s chief military spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, called Iran’s actions “very grave,” telling a televised briefing they “push the region toward escalation.”Iran launched dozens of ground-to-ground missiles at Israel, including more than 10 cruise missiles, and most were intercepted outside Israeli borders, Hagari said. The Iranian salvo caused light damage to one Israeli military facility, he said. The Israeli military said it was not advising residents to prepare to take shelter, revising an earlier alert in an apparent signal of the end of the threat.
UN Security Council to meet
Iran had vowed retaliation for what it called the Israeli strike on its embassy compound that killed seven Revolutionary Guard officers, including two senior commanders. Tehran said its strike was punishment for “Israeli crimes.” Israel has neither confirmed nor denied responsibility for the consulate attack. “Should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe,” the Iranian mission to the United Nations said, warning the US to “stay away.” However, it also said Iran now “deemed the matter concluded.” US President Joe Biden, who spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said he would convene a meeting of leaders of the Group of Seven major economies on Sunday to coordinate a diplomatic response to what he called Iran’s brazen attack. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said America did not seek conflict with Iran but would not hesitate to act to protect US forces and support defense of Israel. The UN Security Council was set to meet at 4 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) on Sunday after Israel requested it condemn Iran’s attack and designate the Revolutionary Guards a terrorist organization. Iran’s Fars news agency quoted a source as saying Tehran was closely watching Jordan, which might become the next target is case of any moves in support of Israel. Israel and Lebanon said they were closing their airspace on Saturday night. Israel reopened its airspace at 0430 GMT on Sunday, its airports authority said. Jordan, which lies between Iran and Israel, had readied air defenses to intercept any drone or missile that violated its territory, two regional security sources said. Residents in several Jordanian cities said they heard heavy aerial activity. Syria, an ally of Iran, said it was putting its ground-to-air defense systems around the capital and major bases on high alert, army sources there said. The European Union, Britain, Japan, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Mexico, the Netherlands and Norway condemned Iran’s attack.

US will not take part in retaliatory action against Iran, White House says
REUTERS/April 14, 2024
JERUSALEM/DUBAI/WASHINGTON: President Joe Biden warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the US will not take part in a counter-offensive against Iran if Israel decides to retaliate for a mass drone and missile attack on Israeli territory overnight, a White House official said. The threat of open warfare erupting between the arch Middle East foes and dragging in the United States has put the region on edge, triggering calls for restraint from global powers and Arab nations to avoid further escalation. US media reported earlier on Sunday that Biden had informed Netanyahu he would not participate in retaliatory action in a phone call overnight. The remarks were confirmed to Reuters by a White House official. The US will continue to help Israel defend itself, but does not want war, John Kirby, the White House’s top national security spokesperson, told ABC’s “This Week” program on Sunday. Iran launched the attack over a suspected Israeli strike on its consulate in Syria on April 1 that killed top Revolutionary Guards commanders and followed months of clashes between Israel and Iran’s regional allies, triggered by the war in Gaza. However, the attack from more than 300 missiles and drones, mostly launched from inside Iran, caused only modest damage in Israel as most were shot down with the help of the US, Britain and Jordan. An Air Force base in southern Israel was hit, but continued to operate as normal and a 7-year old child was seriously hurt by shrapnel. There were no other reports of serious damage. Two senior Israeli ministers signalled on Sunday that retaliation by Israel is not imminent and it would not act alone.“We will build a regional coalition and exact the price from Iran in the fashion and timing that is right for us,” centrist minister Benny Gantz said ahead of a war cabinet meeting. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant also said Israel had an opportunity to form a strategic alliance against “against this grave threat by Iran which is threatening to mount nuclear explosives on these missiles, which could be an extremely grave threat,” he said. Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons. Iranian army chief of staff Major General Mohammad Bagheri warned on television that “our response will be much larger than tonight’s military action if Israel retaliates against Iran” and told Washington its bases could also be attacked if it helped Israel retaliate. Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian said Tehran had informed the United States its attack on Israel would be “limited” and for self defense and that regional neighbors had also been informed of its planned strikes 72-hours in advance.A Turkish diplomatic source said Iran had informed Turkiye in advance of what would happen. Iran said the attack was aimed at punishing “Israeli crimes” but it now “deemed the matter concluded.”Russia, China, France and Germany as well as Arab states Egypt, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates urged restraint and the UN Security Council was set to meet at 4 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) on Sunday. “We will do everything to stop a further escalation,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on a visit to China. “We can only warn everyone, especially Iran, against continuing this way.” Turkiye also warned Iran it did not want further tension in the region.
Escalation
Analysts debated how far Iran’s attack was calibrated to cause genuine devastation in Israel, or to save face at home after vows of revenge while avoiding a major new war. “I think the Iranians took into consideration the fact that Israel has a very, very strong multi-layer anti-missile system and they probably took into consideration that there will not be too many casualties,” said Sima Shine, a former senior Mossad official at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. But if Iran was hoping for a muted response, like with its missile attacks on US forces in Iraq after the killing of Guards commander Qassem Soleimani in 2020, she warned “I don’t think Israel sees it this way.” On Saturday Iran’s Revolutionary Guards seized an Israel-linked cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes, underscoring the risks to the world economy of a wider conflict. Some flights were suspended in countries across the region. The war in Gaza, which Israel invaded after an attack by Iran-backed Hamas on Oct. 7, has spread to fronts with Iran-aligned groups in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq. Iran’s most powerful ally in the region, the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah fired rockets at an Israeli base overnight. Israel said it struck a Hezbollah site deep inside Lebanon on Sunday morning. Yemen’s Houthis, who have been firing missiles at ships in the Red Sea in what they say is support for the Palestinians, called Iran’s attack legitimate. The Oct. 7 attack in which Israel says 1,200 were killed and 253 taken hostage, along with internal discontent with the government and international pressure over the war in Gaza, form the backdrop to Netanyahu’s decisions over a response. At least 33,000 people have been killed in Gaza since Israel began its military offensive, according to authorities in the enclave. The Israeli prime minister has for years advocated a tough military line against Iran, pushing the United States for harder action over Tehran’s nuclear program and its backing for Hezbollah, Hamas and other groups in the region.In Israel, although there was alarm at the first direct attack from another country in more than three decades, the mood was in contrast to the trauma after the Hamas-led attack on Oct.7. “I think we’ve been given license to respond now. I mean it was a major attack from Iran... I imagine Israel will respond and may be over quickly and get back to normal life,” said Jeremy Smith, 60. In Iran, state television showed small gatherings in several cities celebrating the attack, but in private some Iranians were worried about Israel’s response. “Iran gave Netanyahu a golden opportunity to attack our country. But we, the people of Iran, will bear the brunt of this conflict,” said Shima, a 29-year-old nurse, from Tehran.

Iran warns Israel against retaliation, global powers urge restraint
AFP/April 14, 2024
JERUSALEM/DUBAI/WASHINGTON: Iran warned Israel and the United States on Sunday of a much larger response if there is any retaliation for its mass drone and missile attack on Israeli territory overnight, as Israel said “the campaign is not over yet.”The threat of open warfare erupting between the arch Middle East foes and dragging in the United States has put the region on edge as Washington said America did not seek conflict with Iran but would not hesitate to protect its forces and Israel. Iran launched the attack over a suspected Israeli strike on its consulate in Syria on April 1 that killed top Revolutionary Guards commanders and followed months of clashes between Israel and Iran’s regional allies, triggered by the war in Gaza. However, the attack from hundreds of missiles and drones, mostly launched from inside Iran, caused only modest damage in Israel as most were shot down with the help of the US, Britain and Jordan. An Air Force base in southern Israel was hit, but continued to operate as normal and a 7-year old child was seriously hurt by shrapnel. There were no other reports of serious damage. “We intercepted, we repelled, together we shall win,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on social media ahead of a planned 1230 GMT meeting of the war cabinet to discuss a response to the attack. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said despite thwarting the attack, the military campaign was not over and “we must be prepared for every scenario.”Israel’s Channel 12 TV cited an unnamed Israeli official overnight as saying there would be a “significant response” to the attack. Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian said Tehran had informed the United States its attack on Israel would be “limited” and for self defense. He said Israel’s neighbors had also been informed of its planned strikes 72-hours in advance.
Global powers Russia, China, France and Germany as well as Arab states Egypt, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates urged restraint. “We will do everything to stop a further escalation,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told reporters during a visit to China. “We can only warn everyone, especially Iran, against continuing this way.”Turkiye also warned Iran it did not want further tension in the region. The Islamic Republic’s mission to the United Nations said its actions were aimed at punishing “Israeli crimes,” but that it now “deemed the matter concluded.” Iranian army chief of staff Major General Mohammad Bagheri warned on television that “our response will be much larger than tonight’s military action if Israel retaliates against Iran” and told Washington its bases could also be attacked if it helped Israel retaliate.US President Joe Biden has pledged “ironclad” support for Israel against Iran, but did not announce any military response on Saturday night, saying instead he would coordinate a diplomatic response with other Western leaders.The UN Security Council was set to meet at 4 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) on Sunday.
ESCALATION
Analysts debated how far Iran’s attack was calibrated to cause genuine devastation in Israel, or to save face at home after vows of revenge while avoiding a major new war.
“I think the Iranians took into consideration the fact that Israel has a very, very strong multi-layer anti-missile system and they probably took into consideration that there will not be too many casualties,” said Sima Shine, a former senior Mossad official at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. But if Iran was hoping for a muted response, like with its missile attacks on US forces in Iraq after the killing of Guards commander Qassem Soleimani in 2020, she warned “I don’t think Israel sees it this way.”On Saturday Iran’s Revolutionary Guards seized an Israel-linked cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes, underscoring the risks to the world economy of a wider conflict. Some flights were suspended in countries across the region and share prices fell in stock markets in Israel and Gulf states. The war in Gaza, which Israel invaded after an attack by Iran-backed Hamas on Oct. 7, has spread to fronts with Iran-aligned groups in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq. Iran’s most powerful ally in the region, the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah fired rockets at an Israeli base overnight. Israel said it struck a Hezbollah site deep inside Lebanon on Sunday morning. Yemen’s Houthis, who have been firing missiles at ships in the Red Sea in what they say is support for the Palestinians, called Iran’s attack legitimate. The Oct. 7 attack in which 1,200 Israelis were killed and 253 taken hostage, along with internal discontent with the government and international pressure over the war in Gaza, form the backdrop to Netanyahu’s decisions over a response. The Israeli prime minister has for years advocated a tough military line against Iran, pushing the United States for harder action over Tehran’s nuclear program and its backing for Hezbollah, Hamas and other groups in the region. In Jerusalem on Sunday, Israelis described their fear during the attack, when sirens wailed and the night sky was shaken by blasts, but differed on how the country should respond. “I think we’ve been given license to respond now. I mean it was a major attack from Iran... I imagine Israel will respond and may be over quickly and get back to normal life,” said Jeremy Smith, 60. In Iran, state television showed small gatherings in several cities celebrating the attack, but in private some Iranians were worried about Israel’s response.“Iran gave Netanyahu a golden opportunity to attack our country. But we, the people of Iran, will bear the brunt of this conflict,” said Shima, a 29-year-old nurse, from Tehran.

Biden says US helped Israel down nearly all Iran attacks
AFP/REUTERS/April 13, 2024
WASHINGTON: President Joe Biden said US forces helped Israel shoot down nearly all the drones and missiles fired by Iran Saturday, but appeared to guide the key US ally away from retaliating against Tehran by saying Israel had now shown its strength. Biden added that he was convening fellow G7 leaders on Sunday to coordinate a diplomatic response against Tehran, in another sign that he is trying to avoid any further military escalation that could ignite a wider Middle East conflict. The US president said he had called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reaffirm Washington’s “ironclad” support for Israel, after recent tense relations over Israel’s war in Gaza. “I told him that Israel demonstrated a remarkable capacity to defend against and defeat even unprecedented attacks — sending a clear message to its foes that they cannot effectively threaten the security of Israel,” he said.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said on Sunday that British military jets shot down drones launched by Iran in its attack on Israel. “I can confirm that our planes did shoot down a number of Iranian attack drones,” Sunak told broadcasters.
Israel’s chief military spokesperson said on Sunday that France was among the countries involved in defending against Iran’s overnight attack on Israel.
“France has very good technology, jets, radar – and I know they were contributing in patrolling airspace,” he said, adding that he did not have exact details on whether French jets had shot down any of the missiles launched by Iran.
The Israeli military said on Sunday that 99 percent of Iran’s barrage of drones and missiles were shot down, adding that the armed forces remained fully functional and were discussing follow-up options. In a televised briefing, chief miliary spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari deemed Iran’s actions “very grave” and said they “push the region toward escalation.”Israel reopened its airspace as of 7:30 a.m. (0430 GMT) on Sunday, the country’s airports authority said after an overnight attack by hundreds of Iranian missiles and drones. It said flight schedules from Tel Aviv were expected to be affected and travellers should check flight times. He said he had ordered US military aircraft and ballistic missile defense destroyers to the Middle East in recent days, as the likely threat following a presumed Israeli strike on Iranians in Damascus became clear. “Thanks to these deployments and the extraordinary skill of our servicemembers, we helped Israel take down nearly all of the incoming drones and missiles,” Biden said. Biden said he would on Sunday “convene my fellow G7 leaders to coordinate a united diplomatic response to Iran’s brazen attack.”His comments hinted at the US balancing act between supporting its ally and wanting to deescalate tensions, amid fears of Washington being dragged into another Middle East war. Those fears have mounted ever since a presumed Israeli strike on April 1 leveled an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus, killing seven members of the elite Revolutionary Guards including two generals.
After launching the drone strikes, Tehran warned the United States Sunday to “stay away” from its conflict with Israel. But US media reported that Biden was looking to de-escalate. News outlet Axios said Biden had told Netanyahu that he would oppose an Israeli counterattack against Iran and that he should “take the win.” NBC said he had privately expressed concerns to others that Netanyahu was trying to drag the United States more deeply into a broader conflict.
Earlier Saturday, Biden had cut short a weekend trip to the Delaware coast and flew back to Washington for an emergency meeting at the White House with his top national security officials. He posted a picture of the meeting in the wood-paneled White House Situation Room with officials including Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and CIA Director Bill Burns. Biden’s handling of the Middle East conflict will also be under scrutiny in a US presidential election year. Former US president Donald Trump, Biden’s rival in November’s election, said the Democratic incumbent was showing “weakness.”“God bless the people of Israel. They are under attack right now. That’s because we show great weakness,” Republican Trump said at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. Tensions had ratcheted up earlier in the day when Iran’s Revolutionary Guards seized a container ship near the Strait of Hormuz that was “related to the Zionist regime,” the term it uses for Israel, state media reported. The White House condemned the seizure of the British-owned vessel as an “act of piracy.” The Strait of Hormuz connects the Gulf with the Indian Ocean and, according to the US Energy Information Administration, more than a fifth of global oil consumption passes through it each year.

Hamas and Israel exchange recriminations over stalled Gaza talks
AFP/April 14, 2024
JERUSALEM: Israel and Hamas have accused each other of undermining negotiations for a truce in Gaza and a hostage release deal, although the talks have not collapsed. On Saturday, while Hamas-backer Iran was preparing to launch hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel in retaliation for a deadly Damascus strike, the Palestinian militant group announced that it had delivered its response to the latest ceasefire proposal. Without explicitly rejecting the draft deal, Hamas reiterated its long-standing demands for a permanent ceasefire and the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, which Israeli officials have repeatedly opposed. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has instead reiterated his determination to launch a ground invasion of Rafah, the last city in Gaza yet to face such a fate and which Israel insists is Hamas’s last major holdout. On Saturday, Netanyahu accused Hamas of being the “only obstacle” to a deal that would free the hostages still held by Gaza militants. “The cabinet and the security forces are united in their opposition to these unfounded demands,” he said, adding that Hamas “has refused any deal and any compromise proposal.”On Sunday, Israel’s Mossad spy agency said in a statement released by Netanyahu’s office that Hamas had rejected the proposal, and said it “proves” that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar “does not want a humanitarian deal and the return of the hostages.”Sinwar was “continuing to exploit the tension with Iran,” Mossad said, and was aiming for “a general escalation in the region.”The comments came just hours before Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel, the vast majority of which intercepted according to Israel. Mossad said Israel would “continue to work to achieve the objectives of the war against Hamas with all its might, and will turn every stone to bring back the hostages from Gaza.”Despite the apparent gulf between the two sides, the talks, mediated by Egypt, the United States and Qatar, are ongoing in the Egyptian capital. “The negotiations are not at a standstill” but the mediators will have to go back to the drawing board, said Hasni Abidi of CERMAM, a Geneva-based think tank specializing in the Mediterranean and the Arab world. A framework being circulated in Cairo would halt fighting for six weeks and see the exchange of about 40 hostages for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, as well as more aid deliveries into the besieged Gaza Strip. A Hamas source told AFP that, ultimately, later stages of the ceasefire would see all hostages released, Israel withdrawing all its forces from Gaza, the lifting of the siege and the reconstruction of the territory. However, so far every attempt to negotiate a durable ceasefire in the six-month-long war has failed. In November, a seven-day truce enabled the exchange of 80 hostages for 240 Palestinian prisoners, as well as 25 captives freed outside of the truce mechanism. The war broke out with Hamas’s October 7 attack on southern Israel, which resulted in the deaths of 1,170 people, mostly civilians, according to Israeli figures. Israel’s retaliatory attack, aimed at destroying Hamas, has killed at least 33,729 people, mostly women and children, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory. Palestinian militants also took about 250 hostages, 129 of whom remain in Gaza, including 34 the Israeli army says are dead. Israel withdrew most of its troops from the Gaza Strip on the six-month anniversary of the war, leaving only a single brigade in central Gaza, while continuing to launch air strikes and bombardments. Netanyahu has repeated his determination to launch a ground invasion of Rafah, where around 1.5 million Gazans are sheltering from the war, despite opposition from Israel’s top ally the United States. He also faces increasing pressure from the Israeli public and the families of the hostages, with mass weekly demonstrations in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem demanding an end to his government and the return of the captives.

Thousands gather in Iran in show of support for attack on Israel
AFP/April 14, 2024
TEHRAN: Thousands of Iranians took to the streets of Iran early Sunday in a show of support for the unprecedented drone and missile attack under way against arch foe Israel. “Death to Israel!” and “Death to America!” chanted demonstrators in Tehran’s Palestine Square shortly after the Revolutionary Guards announced the launch of Operation Honest Promise. A mural saying “the next slap is fiercer” was unveiled in the square where a huge banner has hung for days calling, in Hebrew, for Israelis to “take shelter.” On Sunday, demonstrators waved Iranian and Palestinian national flags alongside banners reading “God’s victory is near.”Iran’s attack came in retaliation for an April 1 strike that levelled the five-story consular annexe of the Iranian embassy in Damascus and killed seven Revolutionary Guards, two of them generals. Tehran has since vowed to avenge the strike which was widely blamed on Israel. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pledged that the “evil (Israeli) regime will be punished.”Iranian media described the attack on Israel as “complex” as it also involved Iranian allies in Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq. “This attack did not come from Iran only, and this regime (Israel) is being punished from four directions,” the Tasnim news agency said. A large crowd of demonstrators gathered outside the British embassy in Tehran. Supporters of the retaliatory attack also demonstrated in Iran’s third largest city Isfahan where Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, one of the generals killed in the Damascus strike, is buried. Demonstrators also gathered near the grave in the southern city of Kerman of prominent Guards commander Qasem Soleimani, who was killed in a 2020 US drone strike in Baghdad. Tehran had earlier appealed to Washington to keep out of its conflict with Israel but Iranian hopes were dashed after a Pentagon official confirmed that US forces were shooting down Israel-bound drones. Iran insists it acted in “self-defense” after the targeting of its diplomatic mission in Damascus. It said it hoped its action would prompt no further escalation and “the matter can be deemed concluded.”The latest developments took place against the backdrop of the Gaza war which began with Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel which killed 1,170 people, mostly civilians. Tehran backs Hamas but has denied any direct involvement in its attack on Israel. Israel’s retaliatory offensive against Hamas has killed at least 33,686 people in Gaza, mostly women and children, according to the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry. Iran does not recognize Israel, and the two countries have fought a shadow war for years. Anticipation of conflict with Israel had gripped Iran ever since the April 1 strike on its consulate. “It is better to reach a compromise so that the war does not begin, and innocent people don’t die,” said Maryam, a 43-year-old private sector worker. “God willing, our government will favor reason over emotion,” said Salehi, a 75-year-old retired government employee in central Tehran. Ehsan, a 43-year-old university professor, said it was “logical” to retaliate. “War is always bad and worrying — a person who has experienced war would never support it, but sometimes to achieve peace, a war is necessary,” he added.

Iran and Israel: From allies to deadly enemies
AFP/April 14, 2024
PARIS: Israel and Iran have moved from once being firm allies to sworn enemies. Here is a recap of their volatile relationship over the past half century. Israel, following its creation in 1948, had close ties with Iran, which becomes the second Muslim country to recognize the Jewish state after Turkiye. They become allies under the shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. At the time, Iran was home to the biggest Jewish community in the Middle East. The new Jewish state imported 40 percent of its oil from Iran in exchange for weapons, technology and agricultural produce. Israel’s Mossad spy agency helped train the shah’s feared Savak secret police. The 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran toppled the shah, dramatically ending the friendship between the two states. Israel did not recognize the new Islamic Republic. The ayatollahs considered Israel illegal occupiers of Jerusalem. Informal commercial links remained in place, however. Islamic Jihad became the first Islamist Palestinian organization to take up arms against Israel in 1980, with Iran as its main backer. Nonetheless, Israel sent Tehran around 1,500 missiles to help it fight Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq war that raged from 1980 to 1988. Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982 to counter Palestinian groups based there, going all the way to briefly hold the capital Beirut. Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps subsequently backed the creation of militant group Hezbollah, which waged a campaign against Israeli forces from Shiite strongholds in southern Lebanon. Israel blamed Hezbollah for attacks abroad, including in Argentina, where the 1992 bombing of the Israeli embassy killed 29 people and a 1994 attack on a Jewish community center left 85 dead. Tensions rose after the election in 2005 of ultra conservative Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who talked on several occasions of bringing an end to Israel and described the Holocaust as a “myth.”Iran resumed uranium enrichment at Isfahan the same year. When the Iran nuclear deal was brokered by world powers in 2015, Netanyahu slammed it as an “historic mistake.” He was the first to congratulate then-US president Donald Trump when he withdrew the United States from the deal in 2018. Iran has since resumed uranium enrichment. Officially still at war with Syria, Israel claimed to want to stay out of the civil war that broke out in 2011 and still simmers. But from 2013 on, Israel — wary of Hezbollah and Iran’s presence on the side of Syrian President Bashar Assad — carried out hundreds of air strikes against them in Syria. Israel began cultivating ties with long-time foe Saudi Arabia, Iran’s main religious and regional rival. In September 2020 Saudi allies the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain signed normalization accords with Israel. The Unites States sought Israel-Saudi rapprochement, but the efforts were derailed by the Gaza War. Over the following months Israel accused Iran of attacks on vessels. Iran accused Israel of targeted assassinations and the sabotage of the uranium enrichment plant at Natanz. Israel was blamed for targeted attacks on Iranians in Syria, including top members of the Revolutionary Guard in 2022 and 2023. An Israeli airstrike on Iran’s consular annex building in Damascus on April 1, 2024 killed more than a dozen people — including two senior members of the Revolutionary Guards. US President Joe Biden warned that Iran was “threatening to launch a significant attack on Israel,” promising Israel “ironclad” support. On April 13 — two weeks after the unprecedented attack on its consular facilities — Iran responded by sending waves of drones from its territory toward Israel, which closed its airspace, as did Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel’s air defense systems were deployed and that it was prepared for a “direct attack from Iran.”

Israel puts Golan, Nevatim, Dimona, Eilat residents on impact standby
REUTERS/AFP/April 14, 2024
JERUSALEM: Israel’s military put the northern part of the occupied Golan Heights as well as Nevatim, Dimona and Eilat on standby for possible impact from Iranian drone launches early on Sunday, instructing residents to stay close to bomb shelters. The Golan was captured from Syria in a 1967 war. Nevatim is the site of an Israeli air base. Israel has a nuclear reactor on the outskirts of Dimona. Eilat is Israel’s southern Red Sea port, which has come under repeated attack by Yemen’s Houthis. Meanwhile, the Israeli army said it sounded sirens in a kibbutz near the Lebanon border early Sunday, after Iran launched a drone and missile attack on Israel."Sirens sounded in Kibbutz Snir, northern Israel," the army said in a statement.

As Jordan, US forces intercept Iranian drones bound for Israel, Tehran warns Amman against aiding Israel
REUTERS/April 14, 2024
AMMAN: Jordanian jets downed dozens of Iranian drones flying across northern and central Jordan heading to Israel, triggering a warning from Tehran on Amman against aiding Israel. Two regional security sources said the drones were brought down in the air on the Jordanian side of the Jordan Valley and were heading in the direction of Jerusalem. Others were intercepted close to the Iraqi-Syrian border. They gave no further details. The US military operating from undisclosed bases in the region also shot down a number of Iranian drones in Sweida and Daraa provinces in southern Syria near the Jordanian border, security sources told Reuters. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said it launched dozens of drones and missiles at Israel in an attack that may trigger a major escalation between the regional archenemies. Two regional security sources earlier said Jordan's air defenses were ready to intercept and shoot down any Iranian drones or aircraft that violate its airspace. They said the army was also in a state of high alert and radar systems were monitoring any drone activity coming from the direction of Iraq and Syria. Iran, meanwhile, said it is watching Jordan for any moves in support of Israel during Tehran’s retaliatory attacks, warning the country may become the “next target,” a military source told the semi-official news agency Fars on Sunday. “A military informed source said (we) are closely monitoring Jordan’s movements during the punitive attacks ... and if they participate in any possible action (to back Israel), they will be the next target,” Fars reported. Residents in several cities in the northern part of the country near Syria and central and southern areas heard heavy aerial activity. A security source said the country’s air force was intensifying reconnaissance flights. Jordan had earlier said it closed its airspace starting on Saturday night to all incoming, departing and transiting aircraft in what officials told Reuters were precautionary measures in the event of an Iranian strike across its border. “The relevant authorities took the decision to close the airspace for precautionary reasons as a result of the surrounding security situation,” Jordan’s government spokesperson Muhannad Mubaideen said. Mubaideen denied media reports that the kingdom had announced a state of emergency, adding they were baseless and there was no cause for concern among its citizens. Jordan neighbors Syria and Iraq – both countries where Iranian proxy forces operate – and also is next door to Israel and the Israeli-occupied West Bank. It has watched Israel’s war against the Palestinian group Hamas, another Iranian ally, with rising alarm for fear of getting caught in a crossfire. Late last year, Amman asked Washington to deploy Patriot air defense systems to Jordan to bolster its border defenses. Officials say the Pentagon had since increased its military aid to the kingdom, a major regional ally, where hundreds of US troops are based and hold extensive exercises with the army throughout the year. In January, three US service members were killed and dozens wounded in a drone attack by Iran-backed militants on US troops in northeastern Jordan near the Syrian border. It was the first deadly strike against US forces since the Israel-Hamas war erupted in October, and marks a major escalation in tensions that have engulfed the Middle East.

Reaction to Iran’s drone, missile attack on Israel
REUTERS/April 14, 2024
DUBAI: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said it launched dozens of drones and missiles at Israel on Saturday, in an attack that could lead to a major escalation between the regional archenemies.
Here is some reaction to the attack from official statements and postings on social media:
ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER BENJAMIN NETANYAHU
“In recent years, and especially in recent weeks, Israel has been preparing for a direct attack by Iran. Our defensive systems are deployed; we are ready for any scenario, both defensively and offensively. The State of Israel is strong. The IDF is strong. The public is strong.
“We appreciate the US standing alongside Israel, as well as the support of Britain, France and many other countries. We have determined a clear principle: Whoever harms us, we will harm them. We will defend ourselves against any threat and will do so level-headedly and with determination.”
IRAN’S MISSION TO THE UNITED NATIONS
.”.. Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The matter can be deemed concluded.
“However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the US MUST STAY AWAY!“
US PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN
“I just met with my national security team for an update on Iran’s attacks against Israel. Our commitment to Israel’s security against threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad.”
US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES SPEAKER MIKE JOHNSON
“As Israel faces this vicious attack from Iran, America must show our full resolve to stand with our critical ally. The world must be assured: Israel is not alone.”
UN SECRETARY-GENERAL ANTONIO GUTERRES
“I strongly condemn the serious escalation represented by the large-scale attack launched on Israel by the Islamic Republic of Iran this evening. I call for an immediate cessation of these hostilities.
“I am deeply alarmed about the very real danger of a devastating region-wide escalation. I urge all parties to exercise maximum restraint to avoid any action that could lead to major military confrontations on multiple fronts in the Middle East.
“I have repeatedly stressed that neither the region nor the world can afford another war.”
BRITISH PRIME MINISTER RISHI SUNAK
“I condemn in the strongest terms the Iranian regime’s reckless attack against Israel. These strikes risk inflaming tensions and destabilising the region. Iran has once again demonstrated that it is intent on sowing chaos in its own backyard.
“The UK will continue to stand up for Israel’s security and that of all our regional partners, including Jordan and Iraq. Alongside our allies, we are urgently working to stabilize the situation and prevent further escalation. No one wants to see more bloodshed.”
JAPAN’S FOREIGN MINISTRY
“This attack is one that further worsens the current Middle East situation. We are deeply concerned and strongly condemn this sort of escalation.”
CANADIAN PRIME MINISTER JUSTIN TRUDEAU
“Canada unequivocally condemns Iran’s airborne attacks against Israel. We stand with Israel. After supporting Hamas’ brutal Oct. 7 attack, the Iranian regime’s latest actions will further destabilize the region and make lasting peace more difficult.
“These attacks demonstrate yet again the Iranian regime’s disregard for peace and stability in the region. We support Israel’s right to defend itself and its people from these attacks.”
GERMAN FOREIGN MINISTER ANNALENA BAERBOCK
“Iran has fired drones and missiles at Israel. We strongly condemn the ongoing attack, which could plunge an entire region into chaos. Iran and its proxies must stop this immediately. Israel offers our full solidarity at this time.”
GERMAN AMBASSADOR TO ISRAEL STEFFEN SEIBERT
“Germany’s solidarity is with all Israelis tonight whom Iran is terrorizing with this unprecedented and ruthless attack: Jews as well as Arabs and Christians, the Bedouins in the Negev as well as the Druze in the Golan. May they all be safe.”
FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTER STEPHANE SEJOURNE
“France condemns in the strongest terms the attack launched by Iran against Israel. By deciding on such an unprecedented action, Iran is taking a new step in its destabilizing actions and taking the risk of a military escalation.”
EUROPEAN UNION FOREIGN POLICY CHIEF JOSEP BORRELL
“The EU strongly condemns the unacceptable Iranian attack against Israel. This is an unprecedented escalation and a grave threat to regional security.”
EUROPEAN COUNCIL PRESIDENT CHARLES MICHEL
“Strongly condemn the attack launched by Iran on Israel. Everything must be done to prevent further regional escalation. More bloodshed must be avoided. We will continue to follow the situation closely with our partners.”
SPANISH PRIME MINISTER PEDRO SANCHEZ
“We are following events in the Middle East with the deepest concern. We are in permanent contact with our embassies in the region which will remain open to support Spaniards in the area.”
DUTCH PRIME MINISTER MARK RUTTE
“Very worrying situation in the Middle East. Earlier today, the Netherlands and other countries sent a loud and clear message to Iran to refrain from attacking Israel. The Netherlands strongly condemns Iran’s attacks on Israel. Further escalation must be prevented. ... We continue to monitor developments very closely.”
DANISH FOREIGN MINISTER LARS LOKKE RASMUSSEN
“Denmark strongly condemns Iran’s announced attack on Israel. I urge everyone to show restraint and deescalate the situation. Iran’s destabilising role in the Middle East is unacceptable — and so is this attack.”
NORWEGIAN FOREIGN MINISTER ESPEN BARTH EIDE
“I condemn the illegal and dangerous Iranian attack underway against Israel. This will further deteriorate an already extremely volatile situation. We must prevent further escalation of violence in the Middle East. I call upon all parties to exercise maximum restraint.”
CZECH REPUBLIC FOREIGN MINISTRY
“Czechia firmly condemns the destabilizing behavior of Iran and its proxies who decided to attack Israel. We reiterate the Israeli right for self-defense. Iran’s long term aggressive behavior is preventing the Middle East region to live in peace and security.”
COLOMBIA’S PRESIDENT GUSTAVO PETRO
“It was predictable; we’re now in the prelude to World War III precisely when humanity should rebuild its economy toward the rapid goal of decarbonization. The support of the US, in practice, for a genocide, has ignited the world. Everyone knows how wars start, no one knows how they end. If only the people of Israel were high enough, like their ancestors, to stop the madness of their ruler. The United Nations must meet urgently and must immediately commit to peace.”
ARGENTINA’S PRESIDENT JAVIER MILEI
“The office of President Javier Milei expresses its solidarity and unwavering commitment to the State of Israel following the attacks by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Republic of Argentina recognizes the right of State-Nations to defend themselves and strongly supports the State of Israel in the defense of its sovereignty, in particular against regimes that promote terror and seek the destruction of western civilization.”
PARAGUAY’S PRESIDENT SANTIAGO PENA
“In such difficult times, we express our full support for the people of Israel, and are concerned about the increase of violence in the region. We remain in contact with our embassies in the region to serve our compatriots.”
CHILE’S FOREIGN MINISTER ALBERTO VAN KLAVEREN
“We express our concern about the serious escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the Iranian attacks against Israel. Chile condemns the use of force and defends international humanitarian law, which protects civilian lives in armed conflicts.”
MEXICO’S FOREIGN MINISTRY
“The government of Mexico expresses deep concern over Iran’s attack against Israeli territory, and the impact that this could have on thousands of human lives. Mexico condemns the use of force in international relations, and calls on the parties to self-restrain and seek solutions peacefully to avoid a more general conflict in the Middle East. Mexico also emphasizes the importance of respecting international law for the sake of international peace and security.”

Iran told Turkey in advance of its operation against Israel, Turkish source says
ANKARA, April 14 (Reuters)/April 14, 2024
Iran informed Turkey in advance of its planned operation against Israel, a Turkish diplomatic source told Reuters on Sunday, adding that Washington had conveyed to Tehran via Ankara that any action it took had to be "within certain limits".Turkey, which has denounced Israel for its campaign on Gaza, said earlier on Sunday that it did not want a further escalation of tensions in the region. The Turkish source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan had spoken to both his U.S. and Iranian counterparts in the past week to discuss the planned Iranian operation, adding Ankara had been made aware of possible developments. Earlier this week, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to Fidan to make clear that escalation in the Middle East was not in anyone's interest. "Iran informed us in advance of what would happen. Possible developments also came up during the meeting with Blinken, and they (the U.S.) conveyed to Iran through us that this reaction must be within certain limits," the source said. "In response, Iran said the reaction would be a response to Israel's attack on its embassy in Damascus and that it would not go beyond this."Iran, which neighbours Turkey, had vowed retaliation for what it called an Israeli strike on its Damascus consulate on April 1 that killed seven officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Turkey's foreign ministry later confirmed the contacts in a statement, saying Ankara had called for restraint and warned of a regional war if tensions escalated further. It said Ankara would continue efforts to prevent further conflict and escalation in the region. A Turkish security source said CIA chief William Burns had spoken to Ibrahim Kalin, head of Turkey's MIT intelligence agency, over the Eid al-Fitr holidays and asked him to act as a "mediator" in the Israel-Iran tensions. The two discussed ceasefire efforts in Gaza as well, the source said, without elaborating.

Iranian Drones Cast Shadow Over Iraqi Prime Minister's Visit to Washington
LBCI/April 14, 2024
Will Iranian drones overshadow the long-awaited visit of the Iraqi Prime Minister to Washington, diverting attention from the Sudani-Biden agenda? This concern is notable given the importance both sides attach to the visit. Prime Minister Sudani has framed his first official visit to Washington since taking office in October 2022 as crucial for fostering stability in the Middle East. In an article in Foreign Affairs, he made the significant assertion that armed factions in Iraq would come to an end, while emphasizing the need for time to navigate the complexities of the issue. President Biden plans to sign a mutual defense agreement with Iraq and establish a permanent bilateral security relationship ahead of the visit. Key issues on the Biden-Sudani agenda include the presence of US military forces in Iraq, with discussions potentially addressing a timeline for their withdrawal. Additionally, the talks will cover the good relations between the Kurdistan region—a close ally of Washington—and Baghdad, as noted by a senior US State Department official to Alhurra. Other topics include the commercial investment of US companies in Iraq, banking reforms, and energy and water issues aimed at achieving Iraqi energy independence. The discussions may also extend to regional conflicts and ways to contain them. This aligns with President Biden’s goal of ensuring Iraq does not become a source of trouble as the US elections approach. He is relying on Sudani to provide safeguards against attacks on US forces and facilities within Iraq. What does Sudani hope to gain from this visit? He seeks to avoid any US actions in Iraq, such as sanctions against Iraqi leaders and officials, pressure on Iraqi banks and financial activities, or airstrikes against armed groups without the Iraqi government's permission. Most importantly, Sudani views his reception at the White House as a golden standard that could garner international support, facilitating his re-election in Iraq's 2025 elections.

US Urges Caution for Israel After Iranian Drone and Missile Strike
LBCI/April 14, 2024
Before the last drone and missile from Iran reached Israel, US President Joe Biden delivered a clear message to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was in a bunker beneath the Ministry of Defense in Israel. Biden emphasized Washington's opposition to any Israeli retaliation against Iran, which had saturated Israeli airspace from north to south with defense systems against missiles and drones. Air raid sirens sounded 750 times until 4 a.m. Washington, having successfully collaborated with Jordan, Britain, and France to counter the Iranian strike, aims to leverage this response to initiate a new regional diplomatic effort. Netanyahu, meanwhile, considered the interception of 330 drones and missiles a significant achievement for Israel and its allies, with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant declaring victory. This event marked the first time in the history of the Jewish state that its airspace was breached by missiles and drones from an enemy state, specifically Iran, without an immediate military response. Despite the absence of significant damage to Israelis and their property, Tel Aviv has highlighted its claim of victory, though the cost of the defensive systems used during the five-hour incident exceeded $1.5 billion, according to initial estimates. The Israeli War Cabinet discussed the implications of the strike and the decision not to respond immediately. Security officials and other authorities warned of the risks of any response to Iran, particularly targeting its nuclear sites. The calls have intensified to adhere to the US demand for restraint and to focus on the ongoing conflict in Gaza and the fate of hostages held by Hamas, given the lack of immediate prospects for reaching a deal.

Iran's "True Promise" Operation Targets Israel: A Costly Response
LBCI/April 14, 2024
Iran has named its military campaign against Israel "True Promise," fulfilling its vow to retaliate after its consulate in Damascus was targeted. Shortly before midnight on Saturday, Iran deployed a fleet of attack drones, including the Shahed 136 model, as reported by Iran's Mehr News Agency. This drone can travel up to 2,500 km, reaching speeds of 185 km/h and carrying a warhead weighing between 30 and 50 kg. As the drones neared Israel, Iran also launched cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, notably the Khaibar 4 missile, which has a range of up to 2,000 km and carries a 1,500 kg warhead, traveling at a speed of 163 km per minute. The distance from western Iran to Israel is about 1,700 km, with the projectiles crossing the airspace of Iraq, Syria, and Jordan. In total, Iran utilized 185 drones, 110 ballistic missiles, and 36 cruise missiles. Iran claims that half of its projectiles accurately hit their targets. However, the Israeli military confirmed it intercepted 99% of the drones and all of the cruise missiles, with only 7 of the 110 ballistic missiles impacting the Nevatim Airbase in the Negev Desert. This base was linked to the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, according to IRNA. The Israeli military stated that these missiles caused only minor damage to the base's infrastructure, which resumed operations on Sunday morning, as shown in videos shared by Israeli military accounts. Israel was not alone in intercepting the Iranian arsenal. The US President announced that American forces in the region shot down several drones. The Israeli military also reported that French and British defenses participated in the interception efforts, while the Jordanian government stated that its air force intercepted several objects that entered its airspace, preventing any threat to civilian safety. Some shrapnel landed in various locations across the kingdom, fortunately without causing injuries. A lingering question remains: How were the projectiles intercepted? If the interceptions occurred over the airspace of Iraq, Syria, Jordan, and Israel, why were defense systems also observed operating in Lebanese airspace? The Iranian operation lasted five hours and, according to Israeli media, cost Israel over one billion dollars. The spotlight continues to focus on the conflict zone, which alternates between periods of calm and escalation.

Iranian Attack May Shake Oil Market, But Not for Long: Analysts
AFP/April 14, 2024
The unprecedented Iranian attack using missiles and drones on Israel on Saturday night has sparked new concerns in already volatile oil markets due to regional tensions. However, analysts assert that the outlook for a lasting, imminent rise in prices remains unclear. The night attack represents Iran's first direct assault on Israel, which Tehran claimed was in response to an airstrike that targeted its consulate building in the Syrian capital on April 1, attributing the attack to Israel.

Iran attack was 'declaration of war', Israeli president says - but insists 'we are seeking peace'
Sky News/April 14, 2024
Iran's attack on Israel was a "declaration of war", Israel's president has told Sky News. Isaac Herzog said it was "about time the world faces this empire of evil in Tehran". World leaders need to "make it clear" to the Iranian regime that its behaviour is "unacceptable", Mr Herzog added. "We should be looking lucidly at the phenomena called Tehran and Iran." Israel has not sought war since its creation in 1948, the president insisted. "We are peace seekers. We went to peace with our neighbours time and time again. Unfortunately, it all started on the 7th of October when a proxy of Iran, Hamas, led an unbelievably brutal massacre against Israeli citizens and the rest is history. We know it. So we should put it in perspective."
Follow live updates after Iran's attack on Israel
He described Iran's launch of more than 300 drones and missiles towards Israel on Saturday as "just another example of how [Tehran] has operated for years and years". "We were attacked last night from four corners of the Middle East with proxies shooting at us, firing ballistic missiles, drones and cruise missiles," he told Sky News's Middle East correspondent, Alistair Bunkall. "This is like a real war. I mean, this is a declaration of war," he said, before adding that Israel would exercise restraint. Asked whether he agreed with Western allies who are calling for calm, Mr Herzog said: "The last thing that Israel is seeking in this region since its creation is to go to war - we are seeking peace." But Tehran has been "spreading havoc, terror and instability all over the world, and especially in our region", he said. Iran has proxies all over the Middle East and terror cells all around the world, Mr Herzog went on.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said its direct assault on Israel was in retaliation for an "attack on the consular section of the Iranian embassy in Damascus" on 1 April. Two generals and seven members of the IRGC were killed in the strike, which Tehran blamed on Israel. Israel has not publicly commented. Mr Herzog told Sky News the strike "wasn't in the consulate" but in a "separate building nearby the consulate".He added that the most senior general assassinated had led operations from Lebanon and Syria. There had been "terror attacks day in, day out, with the entire machine instructed from Tehran", he said. Mr Herzog said the "number one issue" for Israel was the release of hostages still being held in Gaza. "We want them back as soon possible," he said. "The entire world leadership is calling for that. But Hamas is adamantly refusing. Time and again. That's the real situation at hand." Listen above then tap here to follow the Sky News Daily wherever you get your podcasts. Regarding aid deliveries to Gaza, he said: "We've opened up many crossings and passages. We've enabled an enormous amount of aid also to be parachuted down, and also coming from the sea and from terrestrial openings."
Following last night's attack, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said 99% of Iranian missiles and drones were intercepted. Mr Herzog said he was "happy that we are part of an incredible coalition of nations that has been part and parcel in preventing most of these missiles and drones and weapons to come into Israel".
IDF makes new offensive and defensive plans
It emerged on Sunday evening that the Israeli war cabinet favours retaliating against Iran, but is divided over the timing and scale of a response, officials said. Also on Sunday evening, IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari said plans for both offensive and defensive actions had been authorised following Iran's attack.
"Hamas and Iran want to ignite the Middle East and to escalate [in] the region," he said, adding that the IDF remains "on high alert" and is "assessing the situation". He added: "Over the last two hours, we approved operational plans for both offensive and defensive action. "We will continue to protect the state of Israel, together with our partners." Professor Seyed Mohammad Marandi of the University of Tehran told Sky News the US would surely stop Israel from continuing hostilities with Iran, claiming the IDF's performance in Gaza shows it is not capable of standing up to Iran.
"If they can't take the small Gaza Strip, that doesn't say much for the [Israeli] regime - Iran is the most important country in Western Asia... [so] if the Israeli regime chooses to continue this conflict, they will pay a heavy price," he said. "I think there are enough sane people in Washington who recognise that [Israel would lose a confrontation with Iran], so I don't think we'll have war."Earlier, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said the RAF had shot down "a number" of Iranian attack drones. He said "additional planes" were sent to the region as part of operations already under way in Iraq and Syria. Had Iran's attack on Israel been successful, the "fallout for regional stability would be hard to overstate", Mr Sunak added. "This was a dangerous and unnecessary escalation which I have condemned in the strongest terms," he said.

Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on April 14-15/2024
The Destruction of Iran's Terrorist Hub in Damascus Was Entirely Justified
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/April 14, 2024
Iran's decision to rely on groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas to prosecute its war against Israel has resulted in the Israelis regularly having to retaliate with air strikes against Iranian and Hezbollah targets in Syria and Lebanon in an attempt to disrupt their terrorist infrastructure.
Since October 7, the consulate served as Tehran's main regional command centre, helping to supervise the activities of Iran's so-called "axis of resistance".
[A]s recent events have indicated, Israel is not just fighting a war against the Iranian-backed Hamas terrorists who committed the terrible atrocities on October 7. It is in an existential battle for survival against the Iranian regime and its many proxies which, if left unchecked, will continue seeking to achieve their ultimate goal of destroying the Jewish state.
The bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria was not, as the Iranians claim, simply an attack on a blameless diplomatic mission. It was a carefully targeted strike on the headquarters of the expansive terrorist network that Tehran has established throughout the Middle East. Pictured: The Iranian Embassy compound in Damascus, Syria on April 1, 2024, following an airstrike that destroyed the consulate building. (Photo by Maher Al Mounes/AFP via Getty Images)
The bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria was not, as the Iranians claim, simply an attack on a blameless diplomatic mission.
It was a carefully targeted strike on the headquarters of the expansive terrorist network that Tehran has established throughout the Middle East.
The real purpose of the Iranian consulate building, an adjunct of the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, was revealed when the Iranians themselves admitted that two senior commanders of the elite Quds Force of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were killed in the air strike, which has widely been attributed to the Israeli air force.
The Quds Force, which has direct responsibility for overseeing Iran's global terrorist operations, reports directly to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and was established to fulfil the ayatollahs' ambition of exporting Iran's Islamic revolution throughout the Muslim world.
In particular, the Quds Force is the main conduit between the IRGC and the network of proxy terrorist groups, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, that Iran uses as frontline units in its constant campaign to attack Israel.
The fact, therefore, that two senior Quds Force commanders were killed in the April 1 strike on the Iranian consulate provides conclusive proof that, far from undertaking basic consulate duties such as issuing visas, the facility was being used as a command and control centre for Iran's terrorist activities throughout the region.
Among those who died in the attack was Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior Quds Force commander, who was responsible for coordinating Iran's support for its Hezbollah terrorist organisation in neighbouring Lebanon, as well as Tehran's extensive network of terror groups in Syria. His deputy, General Mohammad Hadi Hajriahimi, was also killed in the attack.
Hezbollah forces, which form part of Iran's so-called "axis of resistance" against Israel, have been regularly initiating attacks against northern Israel since Iranian-backed Hamas terrorists launched their deadly invasion of Israel on October 7. As a result, large areas of northern Israel have been left desolate as tens of thousands of Israelis have been forced to flee their homes.
Iran's decision to rely on groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas to prosecute its war against Israel has resulted in the Israelis regularly having to retaliate with air strikes against Iranian and Hezbollah targets in Syria and Lebanon in an attempt to disrupt their terrorist infrastructure.
In particular, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) have targeted Quds Force commanders who play a key role in supporting Hezbollah's terrorist activities.
In December, Israeli warplanes were reported to have carried out the assassination of Razi Mousavi, the then head of Quds Force operations in Syria.
Mousavi's assassination was the highest-profile killing of a senior Quds Force commander since the Trump administration's liquidation of Qasem Soleimani, the charismatic head of the Quds Force who was killed by a US drone strike in Baghdad, Iraq in January 2020.
It was under Soleimani's supervision, moreover, that the Iranian consulate in Damascus developed into a key headquarters for Iran's terrorist network throughout the Middle East.
The consulate's role in supporting Tehran's terrorist activities dates back to the early 1980s, when Iran first established Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
According to Western intelligence sources, it was from this building that Iran oversaw the Lebanon hostage crisis in the mid-1980s, which resulted in scores of American, British and French hostages being taken captive by Islamist terrorists.
Imad Mughniyeh, the Lebanese terrorist mastermind behind a wave of deadly truck bombings including against the US Embassy and US Marines compound in Beirut in 1983, was assassinated by a team of Israeli Mossad agents in 2008 shortly after driving out of the compound where the consulate was located.
More recently, it was used as the nerve centre for Iran's efforts to keep the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in power during Syria's brutal civil war.
Since October 7, the consulate served as Tehran's main regional command centre, helping to supervise the activities of Iran's so-called "axis of resistance".
Zahedi, who died in the April 1 attack on the consulate, had fulfilled the same liaison role previously undertaken by Mughniyeh in coordinating links between Iran and Hezbollah.
Given the consulate's long history of involvement in running Iran's terror network, Israel would be perfectly justified in seeking to attack it, especially given its role in supervising the constant barrages of missiles Hezbollah has been launching against northern Israel.
For, as recent events have indicated, Israel is not just fighting a war against the Iranian-backed Hamas terrorists who committed the terrible atrocities on October 7. It is in an existential battle for survival against the Iranian regime and its many proxies which, if left unchecked, will continue seeking to achieve their ultimate goal of destroying the Jewish state.
*Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Ayn Al-Asad Number Two – Iran Pre-Coordinated Its Attack Against Israel With The U.S. So That No One Will Be Hurt And War With Israel Will Be Avoided
Yigal Carmon/MEMRI Daily Brief/April 14/2024
To understand what happened last night during Iran's direct attack on Israel, one has to go back four years to the killing by the United States of Iran's Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani. Iran needed to react symbolically in retaliation to save face and asked to do so. The United States allowed it to attack its own Ayn Al-Asad airbase so that no one there would be hurt. Fifteen missiles were fired at the base, with the result being minor damage and not one drop of blood. Iran may deserve a Nobel Peace Prize for being able to fire 15 missiles without killing anyone.
Lt. Col. Staci Coleman, who was the commander of the 443rd Air Expeditionary Squadron, and members of her squadron testified[1] that they had been briefed about an impending Iranian ballistic missile attack almost six hours before it happened. Captain Wesley Florez, the executive officer of the 1st Expeditionary Rescue Group, said that he had received information about the attack early the previous afternoon.[2]
Trump told Fox News in February 2024: "Do you know, we hit them [Iran] very hard for something that they did, and they had to hit back, they feel they have to do that and I understand that. Do you know, they called me to tell me 'We're going to hit a certain location but we're not gonna hit it, it's gonna be outside of the perimeter'... They let us know. And we had 16 missiles that went off... And we knew they weren't going to hit. And now I reveal it... So they aimed those missiles and they said, 'Please don't attack us, we're not going to hit you.' That was respect, we had respect."[3]
Iran's then-foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that the Iranian regime had informed Iraq of its plans to launch missiles at the U.S. bases. This move guaranteed that Iraq would then inform the U.S., so that precautions would be taken to prevent the loss of life.
Now, let's come back to Iran's bombing of Israel last night. Iran wanted to retrieve its deterrence after the killing in Damascus of Iranian General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who, by Iran's own testimony, was the mastermind of the October 7 attack.[4] The U.S. then did to Israel what it had done to itself: It coordinated with the Iranians so that civilians would not be struck. Arab media are already reporting this coordination.[5] Iran made it easy for the U.S., Israel, Britain, and Jordan to know what it would and would not do, and where it would do it. Israel was not part of this coordination.
Iran then launched 300 cruise and ballistic missiles and drones, and not even a cat's tail was injured. When Hamas shoots, there are injuries. When Hezbollah shoots, there are injuries. When Iran shoots, there were none.
One Israeli girl was injured as a result of an air defense missile and not as a result of an attack missile or drone. Just like the damage to Ayn Al-Asad four years ago, there was minor damage to Israel's Nevatim Air Force Base in the northern Negev, but no one was injured there either. Can this be explained by saying, out of sheer hubris, that the Iranians are weak and stupid? Only naïve people can believe this.
In the days before the attack, America, according to media reports, had exchanges with Iran. Early warnings had been coming from America for a whole week in reports including those in The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg. All of Israel was put in hysteria over the upcoming Iranian attack, which anyway benefitted Prime Minister Netanyahu, pushing from the news his responsibility for October 7.
America coordinated the attack with Iran so that no one will be physically injured or killed. This was thanks to the highly skilled American, Israeli, British, and Jordanian air defenses.
The Americans played Israel and they are continuing to do so by preventing an Israeli reaction. In fact, they began the pressure on Israel not to react even before the attack took place. CENTCOM's commander General Michael Kurilla went to Israel on April 13 and pressed for prior coordination with the U.S. of any action by Israel. Now President Biden said it himself: You were not hurt, they failed. Do not do anything. Do not escalate because you will be dragging us into a war. We protected you and no one was hurt. The answer will be diplomatic.
Indeed, no one was hurt, but Israel's deterrence was struck down by the U.S.'s pre-coordination with Iran. Israel's deterrence was sold out to save Iran's deterrence.
When the ballistic missiles that can reach Tel Aviv from Iran in 12 minutes were delayed, I told friends that it was probably in order to stop for refreshments along the way and that the Americans were going to tell us not to react...
Al Jazeera, the Hamas channel aligned with Iran, reported that drones spotted over Aqaba in southern Jordan were continuing on their way to Eilat. Anyone who knows the area knows that drones anywhere in Aqaba could reach the almost adjacent Eilat in two minutes, and yet there were no drone bombings in Eilat...This coordination with Iran that guarantees no casualties, no injuries, was made over Israel's head.
Israel's air force, like those of the U.S., UK, and Jordan, did a great job. They had full information about the missiles that were coming. Israel got the information from the Americans, who got the information about the what, where, and when of the air strikes from the Iranians, enabling an unfathomable 99 percent missile defense rate.
The Israeli air force and air defense, together with the others, did their best, but Israel's deterrence was lost. To retrieve it would be a painful process because, as the Iranians are threatening, the next attack will not be pre-coordinated. The worst for Israel would be to believe that the results of this night is all Iran can achieve. They can do far more.
*Yigal Carmon is President and Founder of MEMRI.
[1] See MEMRI Daily Brief No. 337, The Iran-U.S. Crisis, Part III: Iran's January 2020 Strikes On U.S. Ayn Al-Asad Airbase – The Roars Of A Fearful Paper Tiger, November 10, 2021.
[2] See MEMRI Daily Brief No. 337, The Iran-U.S. Crisis, Part III: Iran's January 2020 Strikes On U.S. Ayn Al-Asad Airbase – The Roars Of A Fearful Paper Tiger, November 10, 2021.
[3] See MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 11125, Iran Informed The U.S. In Advance Of Its January 2020 Missile Attack On Ain Al-Assad Air Base In Iraq, February 9, 2024.
[4] See MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 11264, Close Associate Of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei: The IRGC Qods Force Commander For Syria And Lebanon Who Was Killed In Damascus Was Involved In Planning And Execution Of October 7 Hamas Attack, April 9, 2024.
[5] See MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 11276, Arab Commentators On Social Media: Iran's Drone Attack On Israel Was Planned And Agreed-Upon By Iran, Israel, And The U.S., April 14, 2024.

Iran’s bullet that missed the target
Dr. Abdulaziz Sager/Arab News/April 15/2024
The removal of Israel and the burning of its cities has long been one of the publicly repeated threats issued by Iranian leaders at all levels. These threats turned into promises to the Iranian people and the Arab people, who believe that Israel must be contained. Regional actors, particularly Saudi Arabia and the other states of the Gulf Cooperation Council, have warned for months about the dangers of escalating volatility in the region. Yet, once again, nobody is listening. Since the beginning of the Islamic revolution in 1979, Iran’s policy has been based on instituting itself as the exceptional power confronting Israel and the force that stands in the way of Israel’s aggressive expansionist policy.
From the outset, the Iranian leadership has tried to position itself as the guardian of the rights of the Palestinian people and the leading player in the Palestinian struggle against Israel.
This policy turned into the hijacking of the Palestinian cause and employing the plight of the Palestinians in an utterly obscure manner to support Iran’s expansionist and interventionist regional policy and national interests. Under the guise of defending the Palestinian cause, Iran has been able to build its two regional empires, stretching from the Arabian Sea to the shores of the Mediterranean.
The seeds of promises that Iran planted in the imagination of the helpless Palestinian and Arab citizens were nurtured by the claim that Iran is the only power with the will and ability to destroy Israel. Any Arab citizen who has witnessed the Palestinian tragedy realizes the historical injustice that was suffered by Palestinian citizens and the continuation of this injustice for more than 70 years. The Arab community wishes for nothing more than to see a force secure the rights of the oppressed Palestinians. Still, it does not want to see the humanitarian cause supported on misinformation in exchange for the self-indulgence of a force that cannot fulfill its promises and that is capitalizing on the emotions of the oppressed.
Iran’s missile attack on Israel marks the “promised day” that has been eagerly awaited by Palestinian and Arab citizens, as well as perhaps every other human being who has felt the historical injustice committed against the Palestinian people. Although the core of the current crisis between Iran and Israel was a reprisal for Israel’s attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus that killed several Revolutionary Guard leaders, Tehran used this as an issue (that was not directly related to the Israeli aggression in Gaza) that falls within the framework of the Iranian-Israeli struggle for regional influence and hegemony. Iran’s decision to punish Israel was a welcome act in some quarters.
This attack did not succeed in ‘removing Israel from the map,’ as the Iranian leaders have repeatedly promised.
The promised Iranian attacks on Israel are a fait accompli and the task now at hand is to assess the degree of its success/failure. What we know is that this attack did not succeed in “removing Israel from the map,” as the Iranian leaders have repeatedly promised, and it did not “burn Israel’s cities.” Nor did the attack avenge the more than 33,000 Palestinian citizens who have lost their lives in the midst of the current Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip, or the hundreds of thousands of lives that have been lost since the beginning of the Israeli occupation. Neither did it destroy Israel’s infrastructure or impede its military capabilities.
The key to the Palestinian tragedy remains with Washington and the pressure it will exert on the Netanyahu government. To be sure, Benjamin Netanyahu wants this escalation for three key reasons. Firstly, it keeps Gaza out of the news and lessens the pressure on Israel to make any concessions, no matter how small, to the Palestinians. Secondly, a confrontation with Iran rallies Western support behind Israel. And thirdly, it keeps the Netanyahu government in power and deflects from the Israeli movement calling for early elections. As such, Netanyahu will continue to ignore US pressure as long as possible.
Iran does not want further escalation, but it will also not sit idly by in the case of further Israeli aggression and/or retaliation. The fact that Iran announced a response to the attack on its consulate in Damascus and then waited nearly two weeks to implement it indicates the intention of a more symbolic act, rather than an act invoking a broadened escalation of violence.
The West needs to keep its eye on the ball as far as Gaza is concerned. The root causes of the conflict must continue to be addressed and should not be forgotten. Europe must avoid falling into Netanyahu’s trap of portraying this as a battle of good vs. evil. The inevitable outcome of the Iranian missile attack on Israel is the breakdown of the myth and the end of the illusion that the Iranian leaders imparted on the imaginations of the Arab world: that supporting Iran, its revolution and its leaders is the only way to effectively deal with Israeli arrogance and aggression.
*Dr. Abdulaziz Sager is Chairman of the Gulf Research Center.

Iran is staring down the barrel of a very large gun
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/April 15/2024
After all the bluster, posturing and rhetoric, Iran has finally done its worst, firing hundreds of rockets and explosive drones at Israel in retaliation for an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. The result was about as ruinously destructive as a fireworks party in your next-door neighbor’s back yard.
Certainly the attack was substantial and complex, launched from several states, and involved sophisticated long-range ballistic and cruise missiles — but 99 percent of them were intercepted without causing harm. The worst Iran can claim was light damage to a Negev base and an injured 10-year-old Bedouin Arab girl. Hezbollah also fired dozens of rockets into already evacuated areas of northern Israel and the Golan region, provoking a heavy-handed Israeli response against Lebanese targets. Wiser heads in Tehran will realize that the ball is now in Israel’s court for retaliation that could be of an exponentially greater magnitude. Nevertheless, these strikes provoked jubilant celebration from Iran and its allies. President Ebrahim Raisi boasted that the attack had “taught a lesson to the Zionist regime.” Iranian MPs waved their fists in the air, chanting “Death to Israel! Death to America!” Hezbollah supporters were out on the streets of southern Beirut honking vehicle horns and celebrating. Iranian officials warned that Jordan would be “the next target” if it took any measures in Israel’s defense.
Iran has therefore not only escalated the conflict, but also — through the embarrassingly pitiful nature of these strikes — handed a win to Benjamin Netanyahu and given greater confidence to hawkish Israeli leaders who have long been spoiling for a decisive confrontation with Tehran, and now want bold retaliation. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant bluntly stated that Israel’s confrontation with Iran “is not over yet.” Israel’s lunatic Public Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir demanded a “crushing attack” against Iran. Another minister, Ofir Sofer, declared: “Iran’s audacity in such an attack must be erased.” Iran’s mission to the UN threatened: “Should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe,” and warned the US to “stay away.”
America and Britain unhesitatingly rushed to Israel’s defense. Joe Biden described how the US deployed aircraft and missile defense destroyers before the attack, boasting that “we helped Israel take down nearly all of the incoming drones and missiles” fired from Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. British fighter jets and refueling aircraft were despatched from bases in Cyprus. States such as Germany and Austria have scrambled to declare their support for Israel (I wish they had demonstrated a fraction of this enthusiasm and sympathy for Palestinians in Gaza), and such Western support for Israel would be no less decisive in a broader regional conflict.
Iran’s allies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, who are facing imminent apocalyptic conflict, should warn Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that the game is up and waging war against Israel and the West can end only one way.
Any meaningful Israeli response would almost certainly mark the point of no return on the road to a regionwide war. Israel’s hawkish political echelon would be sorely tempted to exploit the opportunity to severely cut Tehran’s warmaking capabilities down to size, perhaps by targeting Iran’s nuclear installations and its immense missile arsenal. We should be clear sighted about what such a widened conflict would look like. Much of Lebanon would be destroyed, given its proximity to Israel’s war machine and Tel Aviv’s determination to neutralize Hezbollah. Undoubtably, Hezbollah and allies would fire tens of thousands of missiles at Israeli cities, but that would only strengthen Israeli and American resolve to — in Netanyahu’s words — turn Lebanon into Gaza. Beyond Lebanon, Iran’s regional proxy forces are hundreds of thousands strong, in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq, along with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Although such forces would be hopelessly outmatched by Western and Israeli military capabilities, the outcome of fighting in those states would be devastating.
The closure of regional airspace and disruptions to Red Sea shipping are a mere foretaste of the chaos that would ensue. Iran would certainly seek to exploit the Hormuz Strait and Bab Al-Mandab chokepoints to impose a disproportionate cost on the global economy, and has already seized a commercial vessel. Its proxies meanwhile boast of their zeal for renewed strikes against economic targets in the Gulf.
Israel’s airstrike on Iran’s embassy compound in Damascus on April 1 was indeed an illegal act, probably intended to provoke exactly the reaction that ensued — but it was merely another round of a years-long shadow conflict as Iran’s paramilitary proxies steadily leverage their political and military positions in Arab states. Israel meanwhile continues to attack Iranian assets in Syria, while assassinating nuclear scientists and Revolutionary Guard figures inside Iran itself. A further reason we’re locked into this escalatory deathroll is the genocidal Gaza conflict, which must be brought to an immediate end before it causes even more harm to global security.
Instead of joining in this deadly game of mutual provocation, if Iran’s leaders possessed a shred of a sense of self preservation they would be rapidly seeking de-escalation and sending signals to their enemies that they intend no further harm — while pledging the demobilization of their paramilitary hordes, and the dismantling of their nuclear program and ballistic arsenals that have brought them to this self-destructive nadir. Iran’s allies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, who are facing imminent apocalyptic conflict, should warn Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that the game is up and waging war against Israel and the West can end only one way. Iran and Israel are equally hostile to most of the Arab world, and their interminable grudge match has had a calculatedly destructive impact on Arab national sovereignty, prosperity and security. Although it is tempting to say “a plague on both their houses,” the Arab world and the West must do all in their power to compel both sides to de-escalate — including genuine efforts for peacemaking, justice for Palestinians, and long-term stability — before these menaces take us all down with them.
• Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.

Iran’s failed attack on Israel a mere face-saving exercise
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/April 15/2024
On April 1, Israel reportedly struck the Iranian consulate in Damascus, causing the death of Brig. Gen. Mohammed Reza Zahedi, the Quds Force commander overseeing Syria and Lebanon, and six other military personnel, including his deputy Mohammed Hadi Haji Rahimi.
This operation was in line with Israeli military objectives to target pro-Iranian military forces present in Syria. Nevertheless, it was the first time that an Israeli assault was directed against an Iranian diplomatic building. Moreover, it represented a change in the conflict’s rules of engagement. Israel was not targeting arms supplies to Hezbollah or pushing Iranian-backed groups away from its border. This attack was designed to eliminate so-called Iranian military advisers in Syria.
This new Israeli military strategy in Syria was implemented in the wake of Oct. 7. Before that date, Israel’s military objectives in Syria were mainly focused on targeting Iranian affiliates or proxies present in the country. After Oct. 7, Israel understood the limitations and shortcomings of its containment strategy vis-a-vis pro-Iranian forces in Syria. On Dec. 25, the elimination of Sayyed Razi Mousavi, a high-ranking Iranian general, in Damascus marked a new phase in the evolution of the Israeli military strategy in Syria. This direct targeting of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps personnel in Syria continued after the end of 2023. Indeed, in the six months following Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel, Tel Aviv carried out more than 50 airstrikes in Syria, including five on Aleppo airport, two on the adjacent Nayrab military airport, four on Damascus airport and one on the Mezzeh military airport.
Since Oct. 7, Israeli airstrikes have targeted 18 to 20 IRGC personnel in Syria, as well as about 32 from Lebanese Hezbollah and one from Hamas. Following the April 1 Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Tehran warned of “the harshest” of responses. Maj. Gen. Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, said: “Iran will determine the timing and the type of operation against Israel. The operation will be done in a careful manner, imposing maximum damage on the enemy, in such a way that it will regret its move.”
Israel has been preparing for an Iranian military response. Almost 30 Israeli embassies globally have been temporarily shut and Israel’s population has stocked up on water and food. It was known that there would be a retaliation. The question was when and, above all, where.
On April 2 and 4, cruise missiles and Katyusha rockets were fired toward the occupied Golan Heights. Moreover, in the wake of the consulate attack, US forces intercepted two drones in Syria, suggesting that the pause in attacks against them since early February may have ended.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said that the attack on the Iranian consulate would “be punished” and other officials signaled that Iran’s response would be significant enough to deter Israel from repeating its act or escalating further.
However, Tehran did not seem to have many positive options. If it retaliated too strongly, with a direct strike from Iranian territory against targets inside Israel, there would be a risk of a broader military escalation and a direct conflict between Iran and the US.
The regime would have known that the missiles and drones would have been easily intercepted.
Iran also had the option of targeting Israeli diplomatic sites in a third country, possibly in Africa, South America or Asia. This could be considered as a proportional response. But targeting Israeli diplomatic sites with Iranian missiles and drones or using proxies in a covert operation could be perceived as too weak of a military response and not sufficient to deter Israel from continuing its targeting of Iranian military targets in Syria and beyond.
An Iranian military response considered to be too weak could also weaken the IRGC’s power inside Iran, given the high level of discontent in the country, and simultaneously incentivize the regime’s opponents to challenge the security apparatus and discourage the hard-line supporters of the IRGC from supporting the system. The hard-liners have been asking for revenge after the Israeli operation in Damascus and there was a risk that the Iranian leadership would not consider this internal pressure in its decision to retaliate.
Another possibility for Iran’s military forces was to pursue the harassment of Israeli military forces using its proxies and partners. Tehran could intensify proxy attacks by increasing their number and/or transferring more sophisticated weapons. This option was less attractive, as Iran needed to be able to claim responsibility for the attack. Moreover, the recent change in Iran’s management of its network of influence includes more high-profile interventionism and a direct supervision of pro-Iranian forces in the Middle East since Oct. 7. This option would also probably have failed to satisfy the most hard-line supporters of the system inside Iran and would not have been sufficient to deter further attacks from Israel against Iranian military forces in Syria.
Whether or not Iran’s military retaliation provokes a wider regional escalation, Tehran’s objective is clear: to deter any future Israeli attack while not provoking a full-scale war between Iran and the US. This is why the need to calibrate the Iranian military response after the Israeli attack in Syria was so difficult to define in Iran.
Ultimately, before taking any decision, the priority of Khamenei was to guarantee the survival of the Islamic Republic and not to pursue an ideological or direct military conflict against Israel and, more broadly, against US military forces in the region. The fear of the fall of the Islamic Republic was the main political limitation in shaping Iran’s military response to the Israeli attack in Syria.
Based on the latest events, it seems that Iran has employed its response, with news of Iranian proxies launching attacks from Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. To soften the criticism that was expected, the Iranian regime also fired missiles at Israel and sent waves of armed drones toward it.
The regime would have known that the missiles and drones would have been easily intercepted by Israel’s air defenses, but it seems likely this was an arranged face-saving exercise to blunt criticism and boost its support and legitimacy, especially among its key hard-line constituencies. The Iranian aim was to reestablish some level of deterrence, deter further Israeli attacks and prevent a direct full-blown confrontation by launching a soft direct attack on Israel. In addition, this unsuccessful attack likely inhibits Israel from launching direct attacks on Iran. Instead, it will probably continue with targeting Iranian interests, proxies and infrastructure in Syria or IRGC personnel and those connected to Iran’s nuclear program inside the country. The much-anticipated Iranian response has happened and now the ball is in Israel’s court. But what is for sure is that the US will be applying pressure on the Netanyahu government to not respond or at least to limit its response to prevent a tit-for-tat escalation that has the possibility of engulfing the whole region in conflict.
*Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is the founder and president of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). X: @mohalsulami

Rising Iran-Israel tensions threaten global stability
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/April 15/2024
Few rivalries are as potent and perilous as the one between Israel and Iran. The recent escalation in tensions between these two regional powers — as highlighted by Israel’s strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus last week and Iran’s retaliatory drone and missile attack on Israel on Saturday night — has ignited serious concerns on a global scale.
With each passing day, the specter of direct conflict looms larger, casting a shadow of uncertainty over the entire region. In this fluid and unpredictable environment, the risk of miscalculation and unintended escalation is heightened, increasing the likelihood of further conflicts and crises with global ramifications.
Should this powder keg ignite into open warfare, the consequences would reverberate far beyond the borders of these two nations, potentially setting off a chain of events and unintended consequences with catastrophic implications. A direct war between Israel and Iran has the potential to reshape the global geopolitical landscape in ways that are difficult to predict, with far-reaching implications for peace and stability worldwide.
The first and perhaps most immediate consequence of a direct conflict between Iran and Israel would be the destabilization of the already volatile Middle East. Both nations wield significant influence over neighboring states and nonstate actors, which could quickly be drawn into the fray. Proxy conflicts, insurgency movements and refugee crises would likely proliferate, further exacerbating existing tensions and sowing chaos throughout the region. The delicate balance of power in the Middle East could be shattered, opening the door to a new era of uncertainty and violence.
It is important to point out that, if the flames of war spread, innocent civilians would inevitably bear the brunt of the suffering. A conflict between Iran and Israel, with their advanced military capabilities and densely populated urban centers, would undoubtedly result in widespread destruction and loss of life. The humanitarian toll would be staggering, potentially with millions displaced, injured or killed in the crossfire. Humanitarian organizations would most likely struggle to cope with the number of refugees and the overwhelming demand for aid, further exacerbating an already dire situation.
Another issue is that of nuclear proliferation. Iran’s nuclear program has long been a source of concern for the international community, with fears that it could spark a regional arms race or lead to the proliferation of nuclear weapons to nonstate actors. A direct conflict with Israel could push Iran to accelerate its nuclear ambitions, heightening the risk of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. This would, in turn, undermine global nonproliferation efforts and increase the likelihood of nuclear war or accidental escalation, with catastrophic consequences for the entire planet.
A full-fledged Israel-Iran conflict would have profound implications for diplomatic relations and international cooperation.
In addition to conventional military tactics, a conflict between Israel and Iran would likely also see a significant escalation in cyberwarfare. Both nations possess sophisticated cyber capabilities and have demonstrated a willingness to use them in the past. Such a war between these two adversaries could target critical infrastructure, disrupt communication networks and sow chaos in financial markets. The consequences of these attacks could be far-reaching, undermining trust in digital systems and causing widespread panic and uncertainty in the region and on the global stage. A direct war between Israel and Iran would provide fertile ground for terrorist organizations to exploit, further exacerbating the threat of global terrorism. Radical groups sympathetic to either side could exploit the chaos and instability to launch attacks against their enemies or further their own agendas. The proliferation of weapons, the breakdown of security forces and the displacement of populations would create a breeding ground for extremism, posing a grave threat to regional and global security.
One should also not forget the environmental aspect of war. A direct war between Iran and Israel would not only ravage human populations and infrastructure but also inflict severe damage on the environment. The Middle East is home to fragile ecosystems and vital waterways, which would be endangered by the widespread use of military force and the destruction of critical infrastructure. The loss of vital resources and the degradation of ecosystems would exacerbate existing environmental challenges, including climate change and water scarcity, further compounding the suffering of future generations.
Meanwhile, the economic repercussions of a direct war between Israel and Iran would be felt not only in the Middle East but across the globe. Both countries are major players in the global economy, with extensive trade networks and strategic resources at their disposal. Any disruption to oil supplies from the Arabian Gulf, in particular, would send shockwaves through the international markets, driving up prices and destabilizing economies that are reliant on energy imports. The ripple effects would most likely be felt in sectors ranging from finance to agriculture, plunging already-fragile economies into recession and exacerbating social unrest. Finally, a direct and full-fledged Israel-Iran conflict would have profound implications for diplomatic relations and international cooperation. Nations would be forced to choose sides, further polarizing the global community and undermining efforts to resolve conflicts through diplomacy and dialogue. The breakdown of diplomatic channels could lead to increased isolationism and nationalism, making it even harder to find peaceful solutions to the myriad challenges facing the world today.In conclusion, the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran represent a grave threat to regional and global stability. The consequences of a direct war between these two nations would be severe and far-reaching, with the potential to unleash a chain of events that could reshape the geopolitical landscape for years to come.
**Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh