Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 23-24/2023
UNIFIL Takes Action to Calm Tensions Amidst Israeli-Lebanese Border Exchange
Lebanese army fires tear gas at Israeli forces near border
Report: Qatar envoy tells Raad that Bayssari can replace Aoun as '3rd candidate'
Army chief hits back at Bassil over Syrian migrant influx
Berri sends official messages on dialogue to LF, FPM
Bassil snaps back at Berri, says his conditions for dialogue reasonable
Calm Seas, Troubled Waters: Lebanon's Ongoing Migrant Crisis
Army rescues 27 migrants from sinking boat off Lebanon's coast
Collaborative Efforts Discussed Between Mansouri and Economic Bodies
Qatar's emerging role: Paving the way for the Army Commander
The shooting at the US embassy in Awkar: A targeted message?
Generator pollution crisis: Lebanese Environment Ministry takes action
Lebanon's dilemma: Balancing refugee aid and national identity
From Green to Gray: The Illicit Tree Trade in Dibebiyeh's Woods
Unlocking Lebanon's Potential: 2.4 Billion Dollars Await Settlement from Quarry and Crusher Owners
Lebanon education bosses move to ban book with Israeli flag on cover

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 23-24/2023
Cyprus calls on EU to rethink Syrian safe zones for eventually repatriating Syrian migrants
Netanyahu says Israel 'at the cusp' of historic agreement with KSA
Russia says Karabakh Armenian fighters start giving up arms
Iran parades ballistic missiles and new ‘longest-range drone in the world’ on war anniversary
China takes Syria ties to ‘new level’, announces ‘strategic partnership’ as Xi Jinping meets Assad
Cracks in Western wall of support for Ukraine emerge as Eastern Europe and US head toward elections
Ukrainian heavy artillery inflicts 'hell' on Russian lines near Bakhmut
Trudeau pledges Canada’s support for Ukraine and punishment for Russia
Ukraine targets a key Crimean city a day after striking Russia's Black Sea Fleet headquarters
The average amount of time it takes for a Russian mobilized soldier to die in Ukraine is 4 and a half months: report
The Russian weapons Ukrainian soldiers most fear, according to an expert
Dozens of Migrants Reach the US-Mexico Border

Titles For The Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 23-24/2023
For the survivors in Derna, the nightmare has only just begun/Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/September 23, 2023
Azerbaijan offensive raises fears of new war in Europe’s ‘backyard’/Andrew Hammond/Arab News/September 23, 2023
Zelensky delivers an important message to America/Luke Coffey/Arab News/September 23/2023
Oslo shattered a taboo/Dr James J. Zogby/The Arab Weekly/September 23/2023
Thanks to the Policies of the Obama and Biden Administrations, the New Axis of Evil – Russia, China, North Korea, Iran – Posing a Worldwide Existential Threat/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/September 23, 2023

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 23-24/2023
UNIFIL Takes Action to Calm Tensions Amidst Israeli-Lebanese Border Exchange
LBCI/September 23/2023
The spokesperson for UNIFIL, Andrea Tenenti, emphasized, in response to the exchange of fire between the Israeli army and the Lebanese army in the Shebaa Farms, that "the force is present on the ground to calm the situation, and its leadership continues to engage with the parties to de-escalate tensions and prevent misunderstandings

Lebanese army fires tear gas at Israeli forces near border
Amr Mostafa/The National/September 23/2023
Israeli troops accused of crossing the UN withdrawal line and firing smoke bombs at Lebanese patrol
The Lebanese army said on Saturday that it had fired tear gas at Israeli forces, who it accused of firing smoke bombs at its troops in the Bastra area of southern Lebanon. The Israeli army “violated the withdrawal line [Blue Line] and fired smoke bombs at a Lebanese army patrol” between 11am and midday on Saturday, the Lebanese army said in a statement. The patrol was accompanying a bulldozer that had been sent to remove an earth barrier erected by the Israeli army north of the withdrawal line in the area of Bastra, it said. “The patrol members responded to the attack by firing tear gas at the enemy members, forcing them to withdraw to the occupied Palestinian territories,” it said. The Israeli military said it was Lebanon that started the violence. “A short while ago, soldiers spotted an engineering vehicle’s shovel crossing the Blue Line from Lebanon into Israeli territory in the area of Mount Dov,” a statement from the Israeli military said. “In response, soldiers used riot dispersal means.”It said the vehicle "returned to Lebanese territory". Unifil, the UN peacekeeping force in the area, said there had been tension on Saturday. “Unifil is in touch with the parties to decrease tensions and prevent a misunderstanding. At the moment we are on the ground, monitoring the situation and trying to bring calm back to the area,” spokesman Andrea Tenenti said. The demilitarised Blue Line was set by the UN in 2000 to confirm the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon. The area is patrolled by UN peacekeepers, but tensions along the line are high and periodically escalate into clashes. In July, Israeli officials said the militant group Hezbollah was openly manning new military outposts along the line. And this month, Israel accused Hezbollah's ally Iran of building an airport in southern Lebanon to be used a launch pad for attacks against Israelis across the border. Israel and Hezbollah fought a war in 2006 in which more than 1,000 Lebanese civilians and 44 Israelis were killed. A total of 121 Israeli soldiers and about 250 Hezbollah fighters also died in the conflict. Since then, fighting across the border has avoided escalating into full-scale war, but this year there have been several flare-ups. In July, a rocket was launched from Lebanon at Israel and the Israeli military struck back. Palestinian militants also operate in the border area and have fired rockets into Israel in the past, drawing Israeli fire. In May, five members of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine were killed in an explosion in the Lebanese town of Qusaya, which the group blamed on an Israeli air strike, although Israel said it was not involved in the incident. In April, Israel blamed Hamas militants based in Lebanon for firing 34 rockets into Israel, which again led to retaliatory strikes.

Report: Qatar envoy tells Raad that Bayssari can replace Aoun as '3rd candidate'
Naharnet /September 23/2023
Qatari envoy Abou Fahad Jassem Al-Thani met overnight with the head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc MP Mohammed Raad, a media report said. Al-Thani informed Raad that the five-nation group on Lebanon, especially Qatar, is inclined to nominate Army chief Joseph Aoun for the presidency as a “third choice,” al-Liwaa newspaper reported on Saturday. Al-Thani added that General Security acting chief Elias Bayssari can be an alternative candidate, the daily said.

Army chief hits back at Bassil over Syrian migrant influx
Naharnet/September 23/2023
In his first response ever against the Free Patriotic Movement’s repeated criticism, Army Commander General Joseph Aoun has snapped back at FPM chief Jebran Bassil over remarks related to the new Syrian migrant influx into Lebanon. “We are hearing some voices that are questioning the army’s role in protecting the border based on known political stances,” Aoun said. “We have not seen those supporting the army but rather trying to obstruct its work … We have not witnessed active participation by them in addressing the Syrian refugee crisis and they did not send their ministers to Cabinet,” the army chief added.

Berri sends official messages on dialogue to LF, FPM
Naharnet/September 23/2023
Speaker Nabih Berri is continuing to work on his dialogue initiative despite the negative indications and he is receiving written answers from the heads of the parliamentary blocs, a media report said. “Berri has sent official messages to the Strong Republic and Strong Lebanon blocs,” al-Liwaa newspaper reported on Saturday, referring to the parliamentary blocs of the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement. “The LF’s answer was forthright rejection, as the FPM responded with a series of conditions that it deemed necessary,” the daily said. The FPM’s response sought to “prevent Berri from presiding over dialogue and rejecting any format linking (electoral) sessions to (dialogue’s) results,” something that Ain el-Tineh sources have described as an attempt at obstruction and at absolving the FPM from torpedoing dialogue and the resulting repercussions, al-Liwaa added. The newspaper also reported that Berri sent his message to FPM chief Jebran Bassil through MPs Alain Aoun and Elias Bou Saab and to LF leader Samir Geagea through MP Melhem Riachi. “Berri has been quoted as saying that he is the one who will oversee dialogue,” the daily added.

Bassil snaps back at Berri, says his conditions for dialogue reasonable
Naharnet/September 23/2023
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil has hit back at Speaker Nabih Berri after the latter tacitly accused him of torpedoing his call for dialogue. “I didn’t understand how keenness on dialogue to elect a president can be considered rejection of dialogue. Any matter has its conditions and circumstances in order for it to succeed,” Bassil said in a post on the X platform. “If we say that we should agree in dialogue on the president’s program so that we elect a president based on it, would we be rejecting dialogue or keen on securing the success of the presidential tenure?” Bassil added. “If we say that the heads of the parties should be present at dialogue so that there can be decisions and not words would we be rejecting dialogue? We have said and we reiterate that we support a serious dialogue that would succeed. Those who don’t want dialogue are the ones refusing to secure its success conditions,” the FPM chief went on to say. Berri has reportedly sent Bassil an official message on dialogue through the MPs Alain Aoun and Elias Bou Saab.

Calm Seas, Troubled Waters: Lebanon's Ongoing Migrant Crisis
LBCI/September 23/2023
Rare are the moments when darkness and silence save people from death, as happened on Saturday morning off the coast of Anfeh. It was 3 a.m. when the Civil Defense received a call from a citizen reporting hearing distress calls from the heart of the sea.
This was followed by a call from a lady reporting that the boat she was on with others was sinking. Immediately, the rescue unit set out with the support of the naval forces. About a kilometer from the shore, they found the boat. The image of this organized crime did not differ from its predecessors. Twenty-seven migrants were loaded onto a boat that was six meters long, which under normal circumstances should carry only eight people. It is likely that they were transported from the Al-Burj resort in Al-Harisha, which is usually a gathering point for migrants. It didn't take long after they set sail for the boat to malfunction due to a hole in one of its air tanks, allowing water to enter. The naval forces and Civil Defense arrived in time and managed to rescue all 27 passengers, except for one person who was seen swimming toward the shore and is believed to be the captain, who threw himself into the sea as the boat began to sink. Besides that, initial information indicates that there are no missing persons in the incident. The migrants were transported to the military police headquarters for investigation, where it was revealed that all of them are of Syrian nationality. This incident is part of the illegal immigration series, which is expected to intensify between September and October due to the calm seas and the long Lebanese coastline bears witness to it. In El-Abdeh, the Information Branch arrested a pickup truck driver carrying 42 Syrians, including six children, intending to smuggle them to Cyprus via the Al-Ariba beach. The final destination was Europe, with each person paying between $5,000 and $7,000. The driver and an accomplice were arrested. According to a security source speaking to AFP, "an attempt was made to arrest them on land before they set sail." Security information provided to LBCI revealed that the pickup truck driver admitted to transporting the Syrians from Berqayel to Al-Samaqiyeh in cooperation with two Lebanese individuals, and the car of one of them has been seized. Additionally, an empty boat was found off the Arman-al-Minieh coast, suspected to be intended for their transportation. This undeniable reality is that Lebanon has become a transit point for a large number of Syrian refugees on their way to Europe, requiring international cooperation to address waves of displacement.

Army rescues 27 migrants from sinking boat off Lebanon's coast
Associated Press/September 23/2023
The Lebanese Army and the country's civil defense recused early Saturday 27 migrants whose boat was sinking off the coast of north Lebanon, the military said in a statement. The army did not say where the migrants were heading nor did it give their nationalities. Over the past years, thousands of Lebanese, Syrians and Palestinian migrants took the dangerous trip from Lebanon across the Mediterranean seeking a better life in Europe. Such migrations intensified since the country's historic economic meltdown began in October 2019. Lebanon has hosted refugees for years. It has some 805,000 U.N.-registered Syrian refugees, but officials estimate the actual number to be between 1.5 million and 2 million. Lebanon is also home to tens of thousands of Palestinian refugees and their descendants, many living in 12 refugee camps scattered around the country. Over the past months, thousands of Syrian citizens fleeing worsening economic conditions in their war-torn country made it to Lebanon through illegal crossing points seeking better opportunities. Lebanese officials have warned that the flow of Syrian refugees could create "harsh imbalances" negatively affecting the country's delicate demographic structure. Last month, Lebanese troops detained dozens of Lebanese and Syrian traffickers in the country's north while they were preparing to send migrants on boats to Europe across the Mediterranean Sea. A boat carrying migrants from Lebanon capsized off Syria's coast in September last year, leaving at least 94 people dead, one of the deadliest incidents involving migrants, and was followed by a wave of detentions of suspected smugglers. In neighboring Syria, a navy patrol stopped a boat Saturday carrying migrants off the coast of Latakia, according to the pro-government Sham FM radio station. It gave no further details but such incidents are rare in Syria, where a 12-year conflict has killed half a million people and left large parts of the country in ruins.

Collaborative Efforts Discussed Between Mansouri and Economic Bodies
LBCI/September 23/2023
Acting Governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon, Wassim Mansouri, presented a multitude of ideas and measures related to monetary stability and addressing the financial crisis in an expanded meeting. These included actions and interventions by the Central Bank of Lebanon to navigate the upcoming phase without any disruptions until the election of a president, the resumption of the political process, and the approval of a comprehensive recovery plan. This took place during a dinner hosted by Hadi Soupra, a member of the Board of Directors of the Union of Lebanese Gulf Business Councils. After extensive and detailed discussions regarding these ideas and measures, there was a consensus between Mansouri and the economic bodies on the necessity of implementing measures that would alleviate the concerns of depositors, reopen banks, and stimulate the economic wheel. An agreement was reached to hold a meeting between Mansouri and the economic bodies to discuss all ideas and proposals in depth and to establish cooperation that serves the interests of Lebanon and its people.

Qatar's emerging role: Paving the way for the Army Commander
LBCI/September 23/2023
This article was originally published in, translated from the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar.
As the presidential vacuum enters its first year, the political scene appears bleak, signaling a highly dangerous phase for the country. The security situation, already precarious, is now at stake. The ongoing paralysis takes precedence over all else, with an internal and external deadlock due to political disputes and regional-international divisions. Furthermore, the meeting held by the five countries participating in the Quintet Committee for Lebanon, composed of France, the United States, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, did not bring any new perspectives.
On the contrary, the New York meeting revealed a united front against French efforts, with Washington, Riyadh, and Doha criticizing "the French role and its failure to unify or even persuade the Lebanese to engage in dialogue." They also set a specific deadline for France to achieve a solution, threatening to suspend aid to the Lebanese army. In this context, it has been noted that Doha has begun to act more actively and broadly after 'discreetly mourning' the French role. It didn't take long after the New York meeting for a Qatari envoy to arrive in Beirut to engage with political forces.
However, informed sources said, "Qatar has been preparing to inherit France's role in Lebanon for some time, but they were waiting for local and international cover."They also pointed out that "Doha has effectively received external approval from the United States and Saudi Arabia to take over instead of France." But Qatar is also seeking to secure a local agency from the political forces to officially assume the role of a mediator in resolving the crisis. Therefore, the Qatari envoy has initiated meetings with political officials for two purposes:
First, to gain acceptance of Doha's role instead of Paris.
Second, to negotiate the name of the Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, who has become the real candidate for an external consensus. This is despite the Qataris presenting a list of several names, including former Minister Ziad Baroud and Acting General Security Chief General Elias El-Baissari.
Al-Akhbar also learned that Qatar is considering working independently and separately from the Quintet members to achieve something resembling the "Doha Agreement" of 2008 and reach a balanced settlement. Moreover, Qatar relies on its good relations with various political forces and the "services" it will provide in exchange for persuading the political parties to accept the settlement and the Army Commander. Additionally, Qatar always expresses its readiness to undertake the economic and financial role that Riyadh refrains from. This includes re-supporting the banking sector by providing a significant deposit to the Central Bank and initiating investment projects in the country, especially in sectors in need of substantial support. The Qatari initiative comes amid escalating political tensions, especially between the Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, and the Christian opposition forces to the principle of dialogue. But information has leaked about a message sent by Berri to the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gebran Bassil, to determine his stance on the dialogue, with an emphasis that Berri will preside over and lead it, and it will be at the level of parliamentary blocs, restricted to discussing names. Thus, Bassil responded, "I do not understand how insisting on dialogue to elect a president is considered a rejection of dialogue. Every matter has its conditions and circumstances for it to succeed."He wondered, "If we say that we must agree through dialogue on the broad outlines of the covenant's program so that we can elect a president based on it and succeed in his tenure, are we rejecting dialogue, or are we keen on the success of the covenant?" He added, "If we say that party leaders must participate in the dialogue to make decisions, not just talk, are we rejecting dialogue? We have said and repeated that we favor serious dialogue that succeeds, and those who do not want dialogue refuse to secure the conditions for its success."

The shooting at the US embassy in Awkar: A targeted message?
LBCI//September 23/2023
This article was originally published in and translated from Lebanese newspaper Nidaa al-Watan.
The gunfire incident at the United States Embassy in Awkar last Wednesday remains at the forefront of political and diplomatic attention, in addition to the ongoing investigations aimed at "tracking down the perpetrator and holding them accountable," as stated by the US Ambassador Dorothy Shea.
Observers have also noted that the incident occurred in the context of a series of unfolding events, starting with the assassination of Elias Al-Hassrouny, a member of the Lebanese Forces party in Ain Ebel, and including the targeting of the Forces center in Zahle on Wednesday night, and then the embassy incident.
All of these incidents seemed like episodes in a fluid security situation. Even the temporary closure of the Khaldeh road Friday afternoon in both directions raised concerns about its security implications. So, are there any clues to unravel this series of events?
There is no definitive answer to the question. Still, according to the information gathered during the investigation into the embassy incident, it has been revealed that an unidentified armed individual exploited an "ambiguity" to fire 15 shots from his military machine gun toward the embassy building. This "ambiguity" was in an area for which Lebanese security is responsible. According to sources, "everything that happens on Lebanese territory is the responsibility of Lebanese security."They said, "Tolerance allows the perpetrator to act with impunity, and what happened at the embassy level is serious. If the perpetrator is not identified, this case will be added to the file of political assassinations, as whoever assassinated has enough organization to carry out their work." The same sources added, "The area around the US embassy in Awkar is a highly secure zone, and no individual can breach it, which means that this message, on the anniversary of the embassy bombing in 1984, is a security message. A party observed, monitored, and identified a gap for entry and acted on it."
In parallel, Western diplomatic sources stated, "Hezbollah's role on the internal level is political, but everything related to the Syrian, Israeli, or American affairs is Iranian.""Therefore, this is an Iranian message to the US from Lebanon, multifaceted, starting with America's role in controlling the Syrian-Iraqi border and not ending with the statement that the US is keen on stability in Lebanon because if the US supports the Lebanese army, this party wants to show that security in Lebanon is in its hands, not in the hands of the army or any other party," the sources said.
The US Ambassador visited the caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Friday and confirmed that her country's diplomatic mission "cannot be intimidated" and that "our security measures are very robust, and our relationship is strong, and we continue our work at the embassy as usual."However, observers told Nidaa Al-Watan, "The gunfire at the embassy is a warning that the appearances of reassurance that accompanied the behavior of US diplomats in Lebanon in the previous period were seen by Tehran and its group in Lebanon as a provocation. Thus, the incident serves as an invitation for them to review these appearances of reassurance."Moving from security to politics, after the confirmation by the Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, on Friday to Nidaa Al-Watan about the Qatari initiative towards Lebanon, Berri received the Qatari envoy.
As for the caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abdallah Bou Habib, he stated in New York, "The French initiative is moving but on its own." He said, "There is no disagreement among the members of the Quintet Committee during their meeting in New York, but there was no agreement reached that would lead to the issuance of a statement." He also mentioned, "We understood that the Qataris asked France about the duration of the mission of the French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian, but there was no French response." Bou Habib said regarding the Syrian refugee crisis, "I am in contact with my Syrian counterpart, and after my return to Lebanon, we will schedule a meeting in Syria to discuss the refugee crisis." He expressed Lebanon's concern about "being exposed to a new wave of displacement due to events in Syria." Bou Habib then mentioned that he met with the Iranian Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, and they discussed the Lebanese presidential file.

Generator pollution crisis: Lebanese Environment Ministry takes action
LBCI/September 23/2023
To address the high pollution levels resulting from generators and their impact on citizens' health and the environment, the Lebanese Ministry of Environment has taken action to mitigate this harm. According to studies, the percentage of cancer-causing pollutants from generators has exceeded 300 percent. Additionally, generators are used for a duration ranging from 10 to 15 hours daily, increasing the population's exposure to dangerous pollutants. However, intending to curb this threat, the Environment Ministry has issued a directive requiring generator owners with thermal power exceeding 200 kilowatts to install particulate matter filters for diesel generators to reduce pollution. Furthermore, this is under the threat of suspending non-compliant generator owners. The cost of these particulate matter filters ranges from four thousand to ten thousand dollars, and generator owners will naturally bear it. So, will they adhere to these regulations? The LBCI team visited several generator owners in various regions across Lebanon, and they revealed that they had not yet received the directive. However, they expressed surprise at such decisions being issued "when the world is facing other pressing issues." Some considered it more reasonable for the government to provide electricity instead of issuing directives. In other areas, generator owners chose not to speak on camera and stated that the government should install filters at the Zouk power plant first. But others believed that the directive should be enforced. For those generator owners who do not comply, it will be the responsibility of the municipality or local administration to enforce the filter installation. Moreover, if a generator owner or operator fails to comply, the next step will involve environmental prosecutors, as confirmed by the Caretaker Minister of Environment to LBCI. Thus, will the Environment Ministry succeed in curbing the growing threat posed by generators to citizens' health, and, more importantly, can it regulate the uncontrolled and escalating proliferation of generators in areas and neighborhoods, ensuring that they meet environmental and health standards?

Lebanon's dilemma: Balancing refugee aid and national identity
LBCI/September 23/2023
The testimony of housing in the name of a displaced Syrian has caused turmoil in political groups and on social media. The issuance of the testimony was far from ordinary, not just due to its wide distribution amid the worsening Syrian displacement crisis but also because it was issued by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Some viewed this release as a violation of Lebanese sovereignty since it didn't stem from an official Lebanese authority, like the Mukhtar, but rather from the UNHCR, which provides housing testimonies to foreigners on Lebanese territory.While these housing testimonies have prompted political condemnation, the UNHCR clarified that these testimonies have been issued since 2016 in agreement with the Lebanese government to obtain legal residence and access essential services such as enrolling students in schools. However, there are also concerns that these testimonies may become permanent and serve as an introduction to integrating Syrians into Lebanese society. Apart from the existential fear accompanying the Lebanese due to successive waves of displacement, sources from the General Security told LBCI that the more precise issue is the designation of the testimony as a "presence" rather than a "housing" testimony. Furthermore, this type of testimony is granted to displaced individuals registered with the United Nations between 2011 and 2015 and recognized by Lebanon when presented to the General Security, along with the information it contains. This document allows refugees to obtain an annual residence permit after registering their information with General Security and enables them to specify their place of presence. As for the reason for issuing the testimony by the UNHCR rather than the Mukhtars, for example, General Security sources confirmed that these individuals are under the care of UNHCR, which has not shared data with the Lebanese state. Therefore, this procedure was agreed upon based on a memorandum of understanding signed with the Lebanese government, regulating the presence of Syrians seeking employment in specific seasonal sectors, such as construction, agriculture, and sanitation. Residence permits are revoked for anyone discovered by General Security to have returned to Syria, even once, which removes their refugee status. However, the problem lies elsewhere, as those who requested temporary residence permits do not exceed one hundred thousand, while the rest contribute to the increase in illegal labor and random Syrian displacement.

From Green to Gray: The Illicit Tree Trade in Dibebiyeh's Woods
LBCI/September 23/2023
Underneath this lush green forest in the town of Dibbiyeh on the northern border lies a natural cover for an illicit trade – cutting down trees and selling firewood. As we ventured deeper into the forest, more areas appeared where the pine trees had fallen victim to the saw. Criminals and firewood merchants didn't cut trees from a single location; they scattered their actions across different points to avoid drawing attention to their collective wrongdoing. However, their work during the early morning hours and dawn didn't deter some from documenting their actions. The town is situated along the mighty river on the Lebanese-Syrian border. Evidence was captured from the adjacent Syrian town, and the culprits were recorded in the act. Footage obtained by LBCI may assist the authorities in identifying those responsible for tree cutting in Dibebiyeh. The tree-cutting began two years ago, and it continues to expand. Those tasked with tree cutting also engage in smuggling activities and may utilize felled trees to create new hidden pathways. It's worth noting that the town lies on a human smuggling route from Syria to Lebanon, stretching across several border towns. We attempted to contact the mayor of Dibebiyeh, but he was out of the country. Some of the town's residents have appealed to the army to reinstate its presence in the town, and they've called for stricter action against the wrongdoers.

Unlocking Lebanon's Potential: 2.4 Billion Dollars Await Settlement from Quarry and Crusher Owners
LBCI/September 23/2023
2.4 billion can easily enter the state treasury from quarry and crusher owners. How? Simply by having quarry and crusher owners settle their outstanding dues. In Lebanon, there are 1,607 quarries and crushers, whether licensed or unlicensed, distributed across all regions, according to a field survey conducted by the Lebanese Army. Mount Lebanon Governorate is the most affected, with 518 quarries and crushers spread over an area exceeding 4 million square meters. Naturally, this governorate's dues would be the highest, estimated at $845 million. The Bekaa region ranks second. In Baalbek-Hermel alone, 491 quarries and crushers cover over 3 million square meters, and the dues owed to the state amount to $450 million. In the West and Central Bekaa, with 164 quarries and crushers, the owners would need to pay the state $282 million. Moving to the North, which comprises 164 quarries and crushers, it ranks third. The total dues for this region amount to $405 million, covering an invested area of 2.8 million square meters. Meanwhile, Akkar Governorate is the least affected in the North and among all governorates, with 87 quarries and crushers and the lowest dues of $45 million. In the South, quarries and crushers in the South Governorate, numbering 108, extend over an area exceeding 1.3 million square meters. If the owners of these quarries pay their dues, they would contribute $182 million to the state treasury. Lastly, we arrive at Nabatieh Governorate, which houses 75 quarries and crushers over an area of 1.4 million square meters. The dues owed in this governorate amount to $186 million. In total, the invested areas in all of Lebanon's quarry and crusher sector cover 15.15 million square meters, with dues reaching $2.4 billion. If this amount is paid to the state treasury, it could serve as an entry point for reviving the economy.

Lebanon education bosses move to ban book with Israeli flag on cover
Arab News/September 23, 2023
BEIRUT: The Lebanese Ministry of Education has warned schools in Lebanon against adopting copies of the book “National Education and Civic Upbringing” with the Israeli flag on its cover. The book, which was reprinted by an unidentified publishing house for sale in the markets, had a picture of the UN building printed on its cover with the Israeli flag appearing among the flags of other countries. The ministry monitored the copying and reprinting of textbooks issued by the Educational Center for Research and Development, including “National Education and Civic Upbringing.”However, printing and distribution of official schools is restricted to the Educational Center for Research and Development based on the constitution and the Taif Agreement. The press office of Education Minister Abbas Al-Halabi said that he had decided to take legal measures and prosecute “all those who committed fraudulent copying, printing, and distortion of the unified education textbook and violated the exclusive right of the Educational Center for Research and Development to reproduce the national textbook series.”The minister called on the security authorities to take action to prevent this, which was mainly caused by the economic conditions, the decline in the value of the Lebanese pound against the dollar, and the failure of any company or publishing house to participate in the tenders designated for printing the national book.
Dr. Hiam Ishaq, head of the Educational Center for Research and Development, told Arab News that legal prosecutions had previously taken place against publishing houses that produced textbooks illegally some time ago, and warnings and rulings were implemented against them. However, the owner of this publishing house repeated the violation — this time with a grave error related to the existence of an Israeli flag on the cover of the book. The preparation of the textbook is subject to educational specifications stipulated in the documents of the Educational Center for Research and Development.
Dr. Ishaq said that the National Education textbook ranges from the first grade of basic education to the high school grade. “The National Educational Center for Research and Development announces tenders for applicants from publishing houses wishing to print the textbook and the Ministry of Education buys it from them,” Ishaq said.  “But with the collapse of the Lebanese pound, and the fact that the state deals in the Lebanese pound only, no publishing houses applied this year to print the textbook. “Previously, UNICEF printed textbooks for the past two years, but it informed us that this year it had no budget for this matter. “It used to ask students in public schools who received textbooks for free to recycle them by giving them to students who would move to the same grade, with the exception of practical books that could not be recycled. “In light of the chaos, publishing houses decided to print the textbooks and sell them, and this is against the law and violates intellectual property and the legal right to production.”According to Ishaq, the National Educational Center for Research and Development is turning to the e-book for publication— a project that has moved to the application stage. “The problem lies in the fact that not all public-school students have a device to use this application, and we may resort to a PDF version of the lessons required of the students.”

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 23-24/2023
Cyprus calls on EU to rethink Syrian safe zones for eventually repatriating Syrian migrants
Associated Press/September 23/2023
Cyprus has formally called on the European Union to re-evaluate which areas of Syria can be declared safe and free from armed conflict so that Syrian migrants can eventually be repatriated there, Cypriot authorities said. Interior Minister Constantinos Ioannou was the sole official to raise the issue during July's informal gathering of his EU counterparts in Spain. No other EU nation has taken a formal position on safe zone re-evaluation, the Interior Ministry told The Associated Press. Cyprus is fronting the re-evaluation bid because it says its proximity to the region has now made it a prime destination for Syrian migrants. Ethnically divided Cyprus, with a population of nearly a million in the southern, internationally recognized part where migrants seek asylum, says migrants now comprise 6% of its population – much higher than the average in other EU member countries. War-torn Syria has for the past 12 years has been designated as an unsafe country where indiscriminate violence poses a real risk to the safety of its citizens. The threat makes them eligible for international protection status which enables them to live and work in third countries. The government of Cyprus is proposing that the EU re-examine whether conditions on the ground in Syria – or parts of the country – have changed enough for Syrians to be safely repatriated. The practicalities of how such repatriations would take place could be decided later. One possibility would be to start repatriations of Syrians who hail from the declared safe zones, according to the Cypriot ministry. Some 40% of 7,369 migrants who have applied for asylum in Cyprus in 2023 until the end of August are Syrians. The European Union Agency for Asylum says there's "no real risk" to civilians from indiscriminate violence in only one of Syria's 13 regions — Tartus. In another four, including Latakia, Damascus, Homs and Quneitra, indiscriminate violence isn't "at a high level." The United Nations refugee agency told the AP that it's "not aware of discussions within the EU regarding a change of policy on returns to Syria at present" but that any refugee repatriations must be voluntary and on an individual rather than a group basis. "UNHCR and other mandated humanitarian organizations must have access to the entire territory of Syria in order to monitor return conditions, assess needs independently, and deliver services to all, on the basis solely of need," the agency said.

Netanyahu says Israel 'at the cusp' of historic agreement with KSA
Associated Press/September 23/2023
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has told the U.N. General Assembly on that Israel is "at the cusp" of a historic breakthrough leading to a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia, without outlining a clear path over the significant obstacles facing such an accord.
He struck an optimistic tone throughout his roughly 25-minute address — and, once again, used a visual aid. He displayed contrasting maps showing Israel's isolation at the time of its creation in 1948 and the six countries that have normalized relations with it, including four that did so in 2020 in the so-called Abraham Accords. "There's no question the Abraham Accords heralded the dawn of a new age of peace. But I believe that we are at the cusp of an even more dramatic breakthrough, an historic peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia," Netanyahu said. "Peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia will truly create a new Middle East."There are several hurdles in the way of such an agreement, including the Saudis' demand for progress in the creation of a Palestinian state — a hard sell for Netanyahu's government, the most religious and nationalist in Israel's history. The Saudis are also seeking a defense pact with the United States and want help in building their own civilian nuclear program, which has fueled fears of an arms race with Iran. Netanyahu told Fox News on Friday evening that the "window of opportunity" for a deal with the Saudis was "the next few months." "If we don't achieve it in the next few months, we might delay it by quite a few years," Netanyahu said. Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in an interview with Fox News this week that the two sides are getting closer to an agreement, without providing much detail about the U.S.-led negotiations. He declined to specify what exactly the Saudis are seeking for the Palestinians. Netanyahu said the Palestinians "could greatly benefit from a broader peace," saying: "They should be part of that process, but they should not have a veto over the process." Peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians broke down more than a decade ago, and violence has soared over the past year and a half, with Israel carrying out frequent military raids in the occupied West Bank and Palestinians attacking Israelis. Netanyahu's government has approved thousands of new settlement homes in the West Bank, which Israel captured in the 1967 war and which the Palestinians want for the main part of their future state. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who addressed the General Assembly on Thursday, made no direct reference to efforts to reach a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. But he reiterated the centrality of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which has only worsened since the Abraham Accords were signed.
"Those who think that peace can prevail in the Middle East without the Palestinian people enjoying their full and legitimate national rights are mistaken," Abbas said. Netanyahu has often seemed to revel in using the podium of the General Assembly to lambast Israel's enemies. He famously held up a picture of a cartoon bomb in 2012 to illustrate Iran's advancing uranium enrichment. In 2020, he claimed Hezbollah was stockpiling explosives near Beirut's airport, prompting the Iran-allied group to organize an immediate visit by journalists, who saw heavy machinery but no weapons.
The map he held up this year made no reference to the West Bank, Gaza or east Jerusalem, territories Israel captured in 1967 that the Palestinians want for their future state. The map appeared to show Israel encompassing all three. The chamber was largely empty during his address, though there was a group of Netanyahu supporters who clapped several times during his speech. Protesters and supporters of Netanyahu demonstrated across the street from the U.N. headquarters. Netanyahu referred to the cartoon bomb when he held up the maps, pulling out a red marker and drawing a line showing a planned trade corridor stretching from India through the Middle East to Europe. The ambitious project, unveiled at this month's Group of 20 summit, would link Saudi Arabia to Israel. He also reprised his longstanding criticism of Iran, which Israel views as its greatest threat. Netanyahu referred to Iran's crackdown on protests, its supplying of attack drones to Russia for use in Ukraine, and its military activities across the Middle East. Netanyahu called for stepped-up sanctions over Iran's nuclear program, which has steadily advanced since the United States withdrew from a landmark agreement with Iran and world powers to which Israel had been staunchly opposed. Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi, who also attended the General Assembly, urged the U.S. to lift sanctions in order to return to the nuclear deal. Iran has always insisted its nuclear program is entirely peaceful, but the U.S. and others believe it had a secret weapons program until 2003. Raisi also denied Iran had sent drones to Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. U.S. and European officials say the sheer number of Iranian drones being used by Russia shows that the flow of such weapons intensified after hostilities began. In an ambiguous turn of phrase during his address, Netanyahu said that "above all, Iran must face a credible nuclear threat." The prime minister's office later issued a clarification, saying he meant to say "credible military threat." Israel, which is widely believed to have nuclear weapons but has never publicly acknowledged them, has repeatedly said all options are on the table to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons.

Russia says Karabakh Armenian fighters start giving up arms
Reuters/September 23, 2023
NEAR KORNIDZOR, Armenia: Russia said that Armenian fighters in the breakaway region of Nagorno Karabakh had started to give up arms as some humanitarian aid reached the 120,000 Armenians there who say the world has abandoned them after Azerbaijan defeated their forces. The Armenians of Karabakh, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, were forced to declare a cease-fire on Sept. 20 after a lightning 24-hour military operation by the much larger Azerbaijani military. “The armed formations of Karabakh have begun handing over weapons and military equipment under the control of Russian peacekeepers,” said Russia, which has around 2,000 peacekeepers in Karabakh. Russia’s defense ministry said so far six armored vehicles, more than 800 guns, about 5,000 units of ammunition were handed over by the fighters. Russia said it had delivered more than 50 tons of food and other aid.
The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said it had supplied 28,000 diapers as well as blankets and fuel. An ICRC aid convoy reached the border headed toward Karabakh late on Saturday afternoon, Reuters witness said, the first since Azerbaijan retook the region. The future of Karabakh and its 120,000 ethnic Armenians now hangs in the balance: Azerbaijan wants to integrate the long-contested region, but ethnic Armenians say they fear they will be persecuted and have accused the world of abandoning them. Armenians in Karabakh told Reuters that they were essentially besieged in the region, with little food, electricity or fuel — and called on big powers to help them. Azerbaijan envisages an amnesty for Karabakh Armenian fighters who give up their arms and has said the Armenians can leave the region for Armenia if they want. Armenia, which lost a 2020 war to Azerbaijan over the region, has set up space for tens of thousands of Armenians from Karabakh, though Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan says he does not want them to leave their homes unless it is absolutely necessary. US Senator Gary Peters, leading a congressional delegation to the Armenia-Azerbaijan border on Saturday, said the situation required international observers and transparency from Azerbaijan. “I think the world needs to know exactly what’s happening in there,” Peters, a Democrat from Michigan, told reporters. “We’ve heard from the Azerbaijani government that there’s nothing to see, nothing to worry about, but if that’s the case then we should allow international observers in to see.”“I think there needs to be some visibility,” he said.
’ABANDONED’
Azerbaijan began its “anti-terrorist” operation on Tuesday against Nagorno-Karabakh after some of its troops were killed in what Baku said were attacks from the mountainous region. The United States said it was deeply concerned by “Azerbaijan’s military actions.”Accounts of the fighting were chilling. Armenui Karapetyan, an Armenian in Karabakh, said he was now homeless, holding just a few possessions and a photograph of his 24-year-old son who died in 2020, after leaving his home in the village of Kusapat. “Today we were thrown out into the street — they made us vagabonds,” Karapetyan told Armenia A1+, a partner of Reuters. “What can I say? We live in an unfair, abandoned world. I have nothing to say. I feel sorry for the blood of our boys. I feel sorry for our lands for which our boys sacrificed their lives, and today... I miss the grave of my son.”Thousands of Karabakh Armenians have massed at the airport seeking the protection of Russian peacekeepers there. Svetlana Alaverdyan, from the village of Arajadzor, said she had fled with just the clothes on her back after gun fights gripped the village. “They were shooting on the right, they were shooting on the left — we went out one after another, without taking clothes,” she told Armenia A1+.“I had two sons — I gave them away, what else can I give? The superpowers resolve their issues at our expense.”

Iran parades ballistic missiles and new ‘longest-range drone in the world’ on war anniversary
The Arab Weekly/September 23/2023
The Islamic Republic said last month that it had built an advanced drone named Mohajer-10 with an enhanced flight range and duration as well as a larger payload.
TEHRAN
Iran on Friday paraded its military hardware on the anniversary of its 1980s war with Iraq, including “the longest-range drone in the world” along with ballistic and hypersonic missiles, Iranian state media said. They said the drone “was unveiled” in the parade, which was broadcast live, and that drones displayed in the event were named Mohajer, Shahed and Arash. The Islamic Republic said last month that it had built an advanced drone named Mohajer-10 with an enhanced flight range and duration as well as a larger payload. It has an operational range of 2,000 km and can fly for up to 24 hours, state media reported then, adding that its payload could reach 300 kg, double the capacity of the Mohajer-6 drone. The United States has accused Iran of providing Mohajer-6 drones, among other unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), to Russia for its war against Ukraine. On Tuesday, Washington expanded Iran-related sanctions, citing Tehran’s “continued, deliberate proliferation of UAVs” enabling Russia, its proxies in the Middle East and other destabilising actors”. Iran denies providing drones to Russia for the conflict in Ukraine. “Our forces ensure security in the region and the Persian Gulf,” President Ebrahim Raisi said at Friday’s parade in the capital Tehran. “We can teach the people of the region that resistance is today’s way. What forces the enemy to retreat is not submission and wavering, but resistance.” A video released last month by Iranian media showed the Mohajer-6 among other military hardware, with a text reading “prepare your shelters” in both Persian and Hebrew, the latter an allusion to Iran’s arch-regional enemy, Israel. The United States issued fresh Iran-related sanctions on Tuesday, targeting multiple people and entities in Iran, Russia, China and Turkey over Tehran’s drone and military aircraft development. The Iran-Iraq war erupted on September 22, 1980. The conflict, which was economically devastating and left at least half a million dead, ended in stalemate in August 1988.

China takes Syria ties to ‘new level’, announces ‘strategic partnership’ as Xi Jinping meets Assad
The Arab Weekly/September 23/2023
Chinese President Xi Jinping announced a “strategic partnership” with Syria on Friday during talks with President Bashar al-Assad, who is seeking financial support to help rebuild his devastated country. The leaders met on the eve of the Asian Games opening ceremony, which Assad will attend as part of his first visit to China since 2004. China is one of only a handful of countries outside the Middle East that Assad has visited since the 2011 start of a civil war that killed more than half a million people, displaced millions and battered Syria’s infrastructure and industry. Assad is the latest in a string of leaders ostracised by the US and West to be feted by Beijing in a defiant demonstration of its independence, with Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi visiting this year, as well as top Russian officials. “Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad on Friday jointly announced the establishment of the China-Syria strategic partnership,” according to Chinese state news agency Xinhua. Relations between the two countries “have withstood the test of international changes”, Xi said. “China supports Syria in opposing foreign interference, opposing unilateral bullying, safeguarding national independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity,” the Chinese leader added. Assad, in turn, said he “thanked the Chinese government for everything you have done to stand alongside the Syrian people in their cause and their trials”, according to a readout from Syrian state news agency SANA. “This visit is extremely important due to its timing and circumstances because a multipolar world is being formed today which will restore balance and stability to the world,” he said. “I hope that our meeting today will lay the foundations for broad-based and long-term strategic cooperation in all areas,” he added.
Veto power
Beijing’s foreign ministry has said Assad’s visit will serve to take ties to a “new level”. Beijing has long provided Damascus with diplomatic support, particularly at the UN Security Council where China is a permanent member. Alongside the US, Syria faces sanctions from Australia, Canada and European states, but bids to impose multilateral sanctions have not secured the support of the UN Security Council, where China and Russia both have a veto. China has used its veto at least eight times on UN motions condemning Assad’s government. However, China has not directly supported the regime’s efforts to regain control of the country. Analysts say that Assad’s visit represents an important step towards returning to the international fold after years of US-led isolation of his regime. Syria’s war began after street protests escalated into a deadly conflict involving foreign powers and Islamic extremists. Assad’s trip also comes as China expands its engagement in the Middle East. Beijing has stepped up its diplomatic role in the Middle East in recent years, and in March helped broker a surprise deal between long-standing regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran to end their seven-year diplomatic rift.
Citing flagship initiatives aimed at building up infrastructure along the ancient Silk Road and promoting China’s approach to global security, Xi extended support for Syrian efforts to improve relations with other Arab countries. “China is reinforcing its message that it is there to try and help countries resolve their disputes and that peace stems from economic development,” said Matteo Legrenzi, professor of international relations at Ca’Foscari, University of Venice. “(China) is trying to perform a useful role from a distance. As they did with the Iran-Saudi Arabia rapprochement deal,” he added. Assad is also keen on attracting financial support although Chinese or other foreign investments in Syria have to reckon with US sanctions under the US Caesar Act of 2020. Syria, a small oil producer, holds strategic significance for China. It lies between Iraq, a major oil supplier to China, and Turkey, the terminus of economic corridors stretching across Asia into Europe. Syria also borders Jordan and Lebanon. In 2008 and 2009, Chinese state energy firms Sinopec Corp, Sinochem and CNPC invested a combined $3 billion in Syria, spurred by Beijing’s call to acquire global oil and gas assets. Investments included Sinochem’s $900 million purchase of London-headquartered Emerald Energy, which had Syrian assets, although its operations in Syria halted in 2011, a partner firm said. CNPC, which was involved in producing oil at several small blocks, ceased production around 2014.

Cracks in Western wall of support for Ukraine emerge as Eastern Europe and US head toward elections
Associated Press/September 23/2023
Once rock-solid, the support that Ukraine has gotten from its biggest backers for its fight against Russia is showing cracks. Political posturing in places like Poland and Slovakia, where a trade dispute with Ukraine has stirred tensions, and Republican reticence in the United States about Washington's big spending to prop up Ukraine's military have raised new uncertainties about the West's commitment to its efforts to expel Russian invaders more than 18 months into the war. And Russian President Vladimir Putin, who hopes to outlast allied backing for Kyiv, will be ready to capitalize if he sees Ukraine is running low on air defense or other weapons. The West has long been shoulder-to-shoulder with Ukraine against Russia. But between Ukraine's impassioned, unending pleas for help, and huge handouts from its backers, signs of discord have emerged. In July, Britain's defense minister at the time said Ukraine should show "gratitude" to the West, after Kyiv renewed its vocal — but unsuccessful — push to join NATO. This week, a new bout surfaced after Ukraine filed a complaint at the World Trade Organization against three neighbors and European Union members — Hungary, Poland and Slovakia — for banning imports of Ukrainian farm products, a key export for the war-weary country's battered economy. The three bristled at the move, with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki shooting back that his country is "no longer transferring any weapons to Ukraine because we are now arming ourselves with the most modern weapons." Some EU officials have warned that Putin is reveling at the new show of Western discord at a time when Ukrainian troops are making slow gains in their counteroffensive against Russian forces, who still control a vast swath of eastern and southern Ukraine. Still, from Washington to Warsaw, where the military cost and capabilities of helping Ukraine are at issue, officials are playing down any talk of a rift. "I don't believe that one political dispute will lead to a breakdown," Polish President Andrzej Duda said, adding that his prime minister was only referring to newly ordered weapons that wouldn't ever go to Ukraine anyway. Jake Sullivan, the Biden administration's national security adviser, said Thursday he believed that "Poland will continue to be a supporter of Ukraine." Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in a brief visit to Washington this week, sought to shore up U.S. support for his country, which has factored into the political campaign ahead of next year's presidential election. Former President Donald Trump and leading GOP rival Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida say they want the U.S. to stop sending weapons to Ukraine. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-West Virginia, after meeting with Zelenskyy on Thursday, acknowledged that "people are talking about how much money" is being spent. But, he added, "We're investing in democracy." Other GOP presidential hopefuls like former Vice President Mike Pence, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie support Ukraine.
Politics over the issue is also playing out in Eastern Europe. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda, a big backer of Ukraine's fight against Russia, appealed on the X platform, formerly known as Twitter, for his counterparts in Ukraine and Poland "to resolve current differences," and said his country was ready to "facilitate" dialogue between them.
Piotr Buras, a Warsaw-based senior fellow at the European Council of Foreign Relations, said, "Polish-Ukrainian relations have become hostage to the Polish electoral campaign," referring to the country's parliamentary elections next month.
Nonetheless, the harm from Morawiecki's comments lingers, he warned. "It does a great deal of damage to the Ukrainian cause, as this narrative resembles and legitimizes those voices in Europe (mainly on the far-right) that question the need to supply weapons to Ukraine," Buras said in an email. Robert Fico, a two-time prime minister in Slovakia, has returned as a front-runner in that country's parliamentary elections. His populist, left-wing party has staked out a pro-Russia stance and vowed to reverse Slovakia's military and political support for Ukraine if elected in the Sept. 30 vote.
Niklas Masuhr, a military analyst at the Center for Security Studies at the Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, said it's conceivable that some political parties might "put their eggs in a nationalist basket to ... curry favor with the electorate" and avoid the impression of giving "undue solidarity to Ukraine" at the expense of domestic interests. "It would be naive to assume that there are no trade-offs between individual NATO countries' interests and Ukrainian interests," said Masuhr, who called Poland a "strident supporter" of Ukraine when it came to delivery of military equipment.
"There is broad strategic overlap, but that doesn't mean that in every case these interests are aligned," he said. Issues like energy or food supplies are "critical, or if you will, neuralgic, points in the relationship between these countries." Daniel Fried, a former U.S. ambassador to Poland and now a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank, said the recent standoff in Eastern Europe was "not the end of the Polish-Ukrainian alliance" and pointed to Duda's effort to walk back the comments by his prime minister. "This mini-crisis may have peaked," Fried said by phone from Berlin. "This is going to happen ... in a war kind of situation where people's nerves are fried, and there are real issues at stake." "I'm reasonably confident this will be patched up and is in the process of being patched up — at least I hope so," he said.

Ukrainian heavy artillery inflicts 'hell' on Russian lines near Bakhmut
Anna Voitenko/NEAR BAKHMUT,(Reuters)/September 23, 2023
The use of heavy weapons supplied by the West in the fierce battle raging on the outskirts of Bakhmut, which was captured by Russia in May, is inflicting a significant toll on enemy lines, Ukrainian commanders have told Reuters. Buoyed after the capture last week of the key village of Klishchiivka, Ukrainian troops have lauded the 155 millimetre howitzers as key equipment being provided by the United States and its NATO allies. Unit commander Oleksandr said Ukraine's armed forces "very much rely" on heavy artillery, including the Polish-made Krab gun and the U.S.-made M109 self-propelled howitzer. "Even one gun can completely turn the situation around. An attack can be stopped with one such gun," he said. "The main thing is to aim where needed. They (the Russians) hate our hardware. That's what we gather from our intercepts. We hear that we keep giving them hell and they keep wondering how much ammunition we have left." Oleksandr, 30, described Klishchiivka - a village on the heights south of the devastated town of Bakhmut - as "one of the places they (the Russians) were clinging to.""We will see what's next. We will develop our success," he said. Ukrainian commanders have described the capture of Klischiivka and nearby Andriivka as stepping stones to taking back Bakhmut, which fell to the Russians after months of some of the war's heaviest fighting. The gains have been among the most significant in Ukraine's counteroffensive, which began in June and has struggled to break through entrenched Russian lines. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and senior officials have hailed the advances and rejected criticism in the West that the counteroffensive is progressing too slowly.

Trudeau pledges Canada’s support for Ukraine and punishment for Russia
AP/September 23, 2023
OTTAWA: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced several support measures for Ukraine, including military, economic and humanitarian assistance, while also pledging an additional show of diplomatic backing through steps intended to punish Russia over the war. “We’re continuing to impose costs on Russia and ensuring that those responsible for this illegal, unjustifiable invasion do not benefit from it,” Trudeau said Friday during a joint news conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Ottawa, the Canadian capital. Zelensky also addressed Canada’s Parliament on Friday. He flew into Ottawa late Thursday after meetings with US President Joe Biden and lawmakers in Washington. He spoke at the UN General Assembly on Wednesday. Canada and Ukraine agreed to establish a working group with G7 partners to study seizure and forfeiture of Russian assets, including from the Russian Central Bank, Trudeau said. Canada also added 63 Russian individuals and entities to the country’s sanctions list, including “those complicit in the kidnapping of children and the spreading of disinformation,” Trudeau said. Canada’s pledge to stand with Ukraine will include $650 million in new military assistance over the next three years, Trudeau said. Canada will provide Ukraine with 50 armored vehicles, including armored medical evacuation vehicles built in London, Ontario. Pilot and maintenance instructors for F-16 fighter jets, support for Leopard 2 battle tank maintenance, 35 drones with high-resolution cameras, light vehicles and ammunition are part of the intended support package, Trudeau said. The multiyear support also will include a financial contribution to a UK-led consortium delivering air defense equipment to Ukraine, Trudeau said. Canada’s monetary support will continue into the 2024 fiscal year, while the governments also have signed a free trade agreement, Trudeau said. Other assistance for nongovernmental organizations and Ukraine’s government will include measures to improve “cyber resilience,” rebuild local infrastructure and assist farmers. Canada also plans to contribute funds for Ukraine’s national war memorial and money to increase the availability of mental health support at the appropriate time, he said. “We stand here absolutely united in our defense of democracy and our condemnation of (Russian President) Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked, unjustified and unconscionable invasion of Ukraine,” Trudeau said.

Ukraine targets a key Crimean city a day after striking Russia's Black Sea Fleet headquarters
KYIV, Ukraine (AP)September 23, 2023
Ukraine on Saturday morning launched another missile attack on Sevastopol on the occupied Crimean Peninsula, a Russian-installed official said, a day after an attack on the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet that left a serviceman missing and the main building smoldering. Sevastopol was put under an air raid alert for about an hour after debris from intercepted missiles fell near a pier, Gov. Mikhail Razvozhayev wrote on the messaging app Telegram. Ferry traffic in the area was also halted and later resumed. Loud blasts were also heard near Vilne in northern Crimea, followed by rising clouds of smoke, according to a pro-Ukraine Telegram news channel that reports on developments on the peninsula. Crimea, illegally annexed by Russia in 2014, has been a frequent target for Ukrainian forces since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of the neighboring country in February 2022. Ukraine's intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, told Voice of America on Saturday that at least nine people were killed and 16 others wounded as a result of Kyiv's attack on the Black Sea Fleet on Friday. He claimed that Alexander Romanchuk, a Russian general commanding forces along the key southeastern front line, was “in a very serious condition” following the attack. Budanov's claim couldn't be independently verified, and he didn't comment on whether Western-made missiles were used in Friday's attack. The Russian Defense Ministry initially said that the strike killed one service member at the Black Sea Fleet headquarters, but later issued a statement that he was missing. Ukraine’s military also offered more details about Friday's attack. It said the air force conducted 12 strikes on the Black Sea Fleet headquarters, targeting areas where personnel, military equipment and weapons were concentrated. It said that two anti-aircraft missile systems and four Russian artillery units were hit. Crimea has served as the key hub supporting Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Sevastopol, the main base of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet since the 19th century, has had a particular importance for navy operations since the start of the war.
Ukraine has increasingly targeted naval facilities in Crimea in recent weeks while the brunt of its summer counteroffensive makes slow gains in the east and south of Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War said. Military experts say it is essential for Ukraine to keep up its attacks on targets in Crimea to degrade Russian morale and weaken its military.
In other developments, U.S. President Joe Biden told his Ukrainian counterpart at their White House meeting Thursday that the U.S. would give Ukraine a version of the longer-range ATACMS ballistic missiles, without specifying how many or when they would be delivered, according to two U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to publicly discuss the matter before an official announcement. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and other Ukrainian leaders have long pushed the U.S. and other Western allies to provide longer-distance weapons that would enable Kyiv to ramp up its strikes behind Russian lines while themselves staying out of firing range. The U.S. has balked so far, worried that Kyiv could use the weapons to hit deep into Russian territory and escalate the conflict. The Army Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS, could give Ukraine the ability to strike Russian targets from as far away as about 180 miles (300 kilometers), but the U.S. also has other variants of the missile that have a shorter range. Elsewhere, Ukraine’s military said Saturday that Russia launched 15 Iranian-made Shahed drones at the front-line Zaporizhzhia region in the southeast, as well as Dnipropetrovsk province farther north. It claimed to have destroyed 14 of the drones. Separately, Zaporizhzhia regional Gov. Yuri Malashko said that Russia over the previous day carried out 86 strikes on 27 settlements in the province, many of them lying only a few kilometers (miles) from the fighting. Malashko said that an 82-year-old civilian was killed by artillery fire. In the neighboring Kherson region, Gov. Oleksandr Prokudin said at least one person died and three other people were wounded over the past day because of Russian shelling. Russia fired 25 shells targeting the city of Kherson, which lies along the Dneiper River that marks the contact line between the warring sides, Prokudin said. Residential quarters were hit, including medical and education institutions, government-built stations that serve food and drinks, as well as critical infrastructure facilities and a penitentiary, he said.

The average amount of time it takes for a Russian mobilized soldier to die in Ukraine is 4 and a half months: report
Matthew Loh/September 23, 2023
Russian draftees killed in the war lasted an average four and a half months, per a new report. It used open source data on the deaths of 3,000 mobilized troops over the past year. More than half of the dead draftees were between the ages of 30 and 45, the report said. Mobilized Russian troops who died in Ukraine were, on average, killed just four and a half months after their deployment, per a new investigative report. Using open source data on the deaths of about 3,000 mobilized troops, independent Russian outlets Important Stories and the Conflict Intelligence Team calculated an estimated "life expectancy in war" for those called up to fight. They noted in a Thursday report that the actual number of Russian casualties could be far higher. The outlets said they compiled their list with help from newspaper announcements or messages from officials and relatives. At least 130 mobilized troops died in their first month of mobilization, and 20% of the 3,000 deaths assessed occurred within the second month of deployment, per the outlets. Over half of the mobilized dead were between 30 and 45 years old. At least one 19-year-old — said to be a volunteer — and one 62-year-old — a major — got killed in battle, they added. About 10% of the deceased troops were under 25, per their findings. The report detailed the lives and deaths of some men, such as a 24-year-old who died on August 25. He had been called away three months after the birth of his son, it said. Two brothers, Igor and Dmitry Dadanov, died on the same day after being mobilized, leaving behind four orphans, per the joint report. Igor Dadanov was 33 years old, it added. Conflict Intelligence Team analysts said the varying intensity of the fighting over different months heavily influenced the life expectancy of mobilized troops.
The most intense periods of wartime conflict were in the fall of 2022 and spring of 2023, the analysts said. And though mobilized troops were promised vacation breaks, many have yet to be given their time off because Russian commanders are afraid it will give troops a chance to desert, the analysts added. Thursday marks the first anniversary of the Kremlin announcing its wildly unpopular mobilization on September 21, 2022. Russian leader Vladimir Putin said that the Russian army would draft 300,000 reservists for the war effort to shore up a manpower shortage, with many draftees deployed to combat units.
Some were trained for less than 10 days, according to an October report by The New York Times. Mobilized troops have repeatedly reported being sent to the front lines as cannon fodder or abandoned by their commanders. Almost 500,000 Ukrainian and Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the war, US officials said in August. The number of Russian dead was close to 120,000 at the time, while 70,000 Ukrainian troops have died, per US estimates. The same month, researchers working with the BBC say they identified more than 30,000 dead Russian soldiers by name. Russia's Ministry of Defense did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent outside regular business hours.

The Russian weapons Ukrainian soldiers most fear, according to an expert
Tom Porter/Business Insider/September 23, 2023
Russia has learned from past mistakes and improved its weapons and tactics.
An analyst identified three key weapons that have been vital in its war against Ukraine.
Ukraine recently breached Russia's defenses with vehicles for the first time, according to reports. Ukraine appears to have made an important breakthrough in its counteroffensive against Russia with reports suggesting it has breached Russia's defensive line with vehicles for the first time. But it's far from clear if Ukraine will be able to exploit the breakthrough, and the battle remains in the balance. It comes after weeks of grueling combat, with Ukrainian forces fighting through miles of minefields, coming under intense artillery fire, and then seeking to clear Russian trenches in close combat. Gian Gentile, a former US Army colonel and analyst with the Rand think tank, identified some of the key weapons that are proving crucial to Russia in attempting to fight back Ukraine's attacks. But he said a decisive Ukrainian breakthrough could completely change the dynamic of the conflict.
Russia's use of mass artillery has for centuries been at the heart of its military power, with long-range guns in conflicts such as World War II producing devastating and relentless barrages. But the Ukraine war has exposed limits in this strategy, with both sides going through ammunition at a rapid rate, and armaments factories struggling to keep up with the demand for shells. But Russia, said Gentile, has adapted, by improving the accuracy of artillery through the use of GPS technology, surveillance drones, and precision-guided missiles, so is less reliant on the sheer mass of fire. Russian artillery gunners have played a crucial role in destroying or pinning down Ukrainian units seeking to advance through Russian defenses. "They've come to the realization that they just can't do that. And they gotta try to be more precise," said Gentile of Russia's former mass bombardment tactics.
To offset the advantage in troop numbers and equipment Russia had, Ukraine has excelled in adapting cheap, readily available equipment for military use. Among such equipment is off-the-shelf drones that Ukraine has used to surveil enemy positions.
But Russia's capacity to take drones out by scrambling their signals has significantly improved during the conflict, said Gentile. It means that Ukraine's capacity to gather real-time battlefield intelligence on Russian positions has been more limited.
Just behind the front line, teams of electronic warfare operatives are deployed to detect and intercept drones and missiles. They work in small difficult-to-spot units with a special device that can jam GPS signals that guide drones and even expensive precision-guided US missiles. When their signals are jammed, the drones go off-target or arbitrarily wander off and crash. "They lose a lot of them because the Russians are very effective with electronic warfare, counter-drone tactics," said Matt Dimmick, a former US National Security Council member who is working with the Spirit of America NGO to secure crucial battlefield supplies for Ukraine. "Every unit without drones — they are completely blind. They can't see what's over the next hill, what's over the trees. They can't, you know, find those Russian high-value targets like the machine guns and artillery positions, which means they can't target them," said Dimmick. A deadly game of cat and mouse has evolved, with Ukraine seeking to identify and destroy the units and create windows that it can exploit, reported the BBC. Russia's Ka-52 attack helicopters have caused formidable problems for Ukraine. Dubbed "Putin's vultures" by Ukraine's military, the Ka-52 is highly maneuverable, fitted with tough armor, and can fire tank-busting missiles. The UK's military said that the helicopters give Russia a key battlefield advantage, and have imposed a "heavy cost" on Ukraine. They are fitted with tank-busting LMUR missiles, which can be fired from around nine miles away. "Ka-52 crews have been quick to exploit opportunities to launch these weapons beyond the range of Ukrainian air defenses," Britain's Ministry of Defence said. The helicopters have helped reduce the threat posed by Ukraine's tanks and armored vehicles. "The whole idea, especially in this kind of combat, is to create or present multiple dilemmas to your enemy. And having these attack helicopters is a pretty significant dilemma for the Ukrainians," said Gentile. But Russia remains vulnerable Gentile said that despite improvements that enabled Russia to fight back Ukraine's attacks for weeks, he is skeptical that it will be able to rapidly evolve against and repel Ukraine if a breakthrough proves decisive. He said that if Ukraine is able to decisively punch through Russian defenses "we're into another phase of this than what we've seen so far" as Russia appears to lack the resources for a significant counterattack.

Dozens of Migrants Reach the US-Mexico Border
AFP/September 23/2023
Dozens of migrants reached the border between the United States and Mexico on Friday in hopes of entering the United States, while U.S. border forces reported having dealt with 1.8 million migrants in the past 12 months.In Eagle Pass, Texas, migrants from countries including Honduras and Venezuela crossed the Rio Grande River, which separates the United States and Mexico, only to find a formidable barrier of thick barbed wire preventing them from entering U.S. territory.

Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 23-24/2023
For the survivors in Derna, the nightmare has only just begun
Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/September 23, 2023
Floods have not been a rare occurrence in the history of Derna. However, the power of Storm Daniel this month was on a scale unlike any of the other shocks, natural or otherwise, the Libyan city has endured over the years, including its recent transformation into a battleground between Islamists and a notorious warlord. Some might argue that the “reverse tsunami” marked Libya’s initiation into the uncertain future of climate change but the country already had a foot in that door, situated as it is in one of the most climate vulnerable regions of the world.
However, the threats are magnified by the extent to which Libya’s future, and its resilience to inevitable shocks, is compromised by the corrosive legacies that amplified Derna’s tragedy and will continue to have similar effects on the country for years to come.
We are already seeing some of the ways in which the effects of those legacies manifest themselves, just days after the devastating storm swept through. The residents of Derna are now trapped by an almost apocalyptic mix of corruption, death and destruction.
A despairing populace, rightfully aggrieved and furiously demanding accountability and change, is left to salvage what remains of their destroyed city, abandoned by a homeland that persistently betrays them at every turn.
Having survived the most catastrophic storm since records began in the 1900s, Derna’s survivors have seen their lives reduced to rubble. Some have told how they watched, helplessly, as loved ones were swept away by the torrent.
The full extent of the horrors becomes more apparent each day, with entire families wiped from civil registries. Meanwhile, authorities busy themselves policing dissent rather than rendering aid or facilitating recovery efforts, while the hopeful gather with the mournful along the coastline as now-unrecognizable bodies continue to wash ashore.
Their ordeal is far from over. As if to add insult to injury, this week Derna was inexplicably cut off from the rest of the world. Libyan authorities — continuing to coast on dubious claims of legitimacy bought by the gun and assured by a disinterested international community — have proffered only a conflicting stream of statements and press releases about the communications blackout. It is unclear whether the intent is to buy time to find a convenient scapegoat, or to come up with palatable justifications for isolating the residents of a devastated city who, with no hope of recourse or relief, took to the streets to protest in a rare display of public furor against a firmly entrenched ruling elite. However, their demands for an investigation into the disaster and calls for the UN to oversee the reconstruction of Derna have been met only with further oppression for daring to voice their grievances. In a stark reminder of the kind of disconnect that pervades Libya today, the very authorities responsible for handling the aftermath of the devastation would rather brand the foremost voices of the rightfully aggrieved as “terrorists.”
The media and internet blackout was imposed in the name of “safety,” it is claimed — but whose safety? Certainly not the survivors of the disaster, who now face a second crisis given the UN’s recent warnings of possible disease outbreaks stemming from contaminated water and lack of sanitation.
For the few journalists who managed to reach Derna before the enforced isolation of the city, the stories they uncovered were harrowing. Survivors, desperate for their voices to be heard, gave chilling accounts of their experiences so far. Aid and rescue workers said they had never seen such scenes of destruction, even in Turkiye after the earthquakes in February.
Pleas for help and calls for swift action continue to be swatted aside by a greedy and corrupt cabal.
Yet pleas for help and calls for swift action continue to be swatted aside by a greedy and corrupt cabal that is rapidly positioning itself to exploit Derna’s tragedy, eagerly anticipating the influx of international aid and the opportunity to control its distribution. They could not care less that their repression and blackouts only send the horrifying message that the lives, grief and rage in Derna — or elsewhere else for that matter — will never be worth more than their own self-preservation.
Naturally, the knee-jerk lunge to silence, refute, arrest and “disappear” any dissenting voices has further fueled the intense anger, and galvanized Libyans far beyond Derna and even outside the country.
Meanwhile, rather than acknowledge the gravity of the situation in the city and how it is emblematic of a deeply flawed system that is crumbling under its own weight, to the global community the situation in Libya remains business as usual.
Take the US, for instance. Given the absence of stable, functioning state institutions in Libya, Washington could have easily facilitated the full empowerment of the UN and other international bodies to manage the aftermath of the disaster, while sidelining an apathetic, callous, inept and corrupt Libyan political elite.
Instead, the US opted for a bizarre, tone deaf and, frankly, insulting response by publishing pictures of a meeting between the head of its US Africa Command and the leader of the Libyan National Army, Khalifa Haftar.
For one thing, he is the de facto overseer of Russian private military company Wagner’s operations in eastern Libya, which the US Treasury Department stopped short of designating a terrorist group but describes as a “significant transnational criminal organization.”
Secondly, and even more dastardly, it is his Internal Security Agency that terrorized Derna’s survivors in its efforts to arrest organizers of the protests in front of the city’s grand mosque this week.
Worse yet, there have been no notable reports of outrage in the world’s press concerning the blackouts in Derna or the arbitrary arrests of survivors of the disaster, demands for accountability, or the fact that one of Haftar’s sons is overseeing recovery efforts.
Moreover, reporters can only get as far as Benghazi, about 250 km away, in their efforts to cover what is happening in Derna while it is cut off from the rest of the world. It is an insidious recipe for the inevitable result that developments in the wrecked city will end up relegated to a cursory line or two in the margins as attentions shift elsewhere.
Meanwhile, the death toll continues to rise, while Haftar and his ilk set about turning Derna into a potential windfall for their political aspirations and a showcase of legitimacy in their rivalry with the UN-backed authority in the west of the country. Control of access and the funneling of resources, funds and personnel to the disaster area will afford the rival authority in the east more influence and attention, which are already being wielded for nefarious purposes.
Derna could have been the type of wake-up call the global community has consistently missed or resisted concerning Libya. It is unlikely a unified, accountable and receptive government would have come about even if the voices of protest in Derna had not been abruptly interrupted. However, the swiftness and harshness of the repression in an attempt to silence them does indicate the glaring vulnerabilities, and a palpable fear of a contagion of unrest, among the seemingly unassailable elites. If only Libyan authorities responded to their citizens’ needs as swiftly as they cracked down on dissent.
Meanwhile, we watch as the global community continues to break bread with the same entities complicit in creating the conditions that resulted in the Derna disaster. As the cries for aid grow louder, the international community must heed not only the calls for immediate relief but also the desperate pleas for transparency, accountability and decisive blows to the malignant corruption that is compromising Libya’s future.
As we bear witness to the unraveling of Derna, we must remember that its residents are not merely the victims of a terrible natural disaster, but the casualties of a system that prioritizes power over people. For the people of the city, the nightmare has only just begun.
• Hafed Al-Ghwell is a senior fellow and executive director of the North Africa Initiative at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, D.C., and a former adviser to the dean of the board of executive directors of the World Bank Group.

Azerbaijan offensive raises fears of new war in Europe’s ‘backyard’
Andrew Hammond/Arab News/September 23, 2023
European politics has been convulsed in the past 18 months by the Ukraine conflict. Yet, there are concerns of a second war in the EU’s “backyard” after Azerbaijan launched a new military offensive on Tuesday against Armenian positions in Nagorno-Karabakh.
While a shaky ceasefire was agreed the following day, the continued possibility of a new war in the Caucasus is a significant blow for the 27 EU member states, not least for their energy security policy after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Just over a year ago, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen traveled to mineral-rich Azerbaijan to sign a memorandum of understanding on gas supplies with President Ilham Aliyev. It is estimated that around two-thirds of Azerbaijan is rich in oil and natural gas. The country also produces a range of metals and industrial minerals, including aluminum, lead, iron and zinc. Von der Leyen even asserted Azerbaijan to be a “reliable, trustworthy partner,” despite some critics asserting she was trading one energy autocracy for another.
European Council President Charles Michel, who has helped drive conciliation discussions between Armenia and Azerbaijan in recent weeks, said on Tuesday that the latest developments are “devastating.” This assessment was shared by Toivo Klaar, the EU’s special representative for the South Caucasus, who cautioned that “(Azerbaijan) military action will only worsen the situation.”
Perhaps the big unknown factor in the latest flare-up is what role, if any, Russia is playing. Moscow is the region’s traditional power broker, but some interpret Tuesday’s actions as a further indication that Russian President Vladimir Putin is losing influence in the wake of the Ukraine war.
However, others point to the possibility that Putin may well have encouraged these latest developments, possibly to force a change of policy, or regime, in longstanding ally Armenia, which has significantly developed its ties with the West recently.
Nikol Pashinyan, who led the anti-government protests in 2018 and became Armenia’s prime minister, has asserted that his nation’s historical reliance on Russia as its single source of security was a “strategic error.” Armenia is still a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, an alliance of former Soviet Union countries mirroring NATO, but has annoyed Moscow recently on several counts. First, it has recently undertaken joint military exercises with US troops. Second, Armenia has transitioned toward ratifying the Rome Convention establishing the International Criminal Court, which recently indicted Putin because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A second related uncertainty is whether the offensive on Tuesday is really the start of a new war, or merely a more limited operation, possibly to try to encourage Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh to flee to Armenia. Before Wednesday’s uncertain ceasefire, Hikmet Hajiyev, a senior presidential aide, said Azerbaijan had already hit its main targets and the operations will now continue in a “more limited format.”
The backstory to the latest developments is the long, bloody tensions between the Azerbaijan and Armenian peoples going back more than 100 years. Nagorno-Karabakh — at the south of the Karabakh mountains — is widely recognized as part of Azerbaijan. Nagorno-Karabakh’s 120,000 inhabitants are predominantly ethnic Armenians and Christian.
The possibility of a new war in the Caucasus is a significant blow for the 27 EU member states.
The latter populace has its own separatist government, which, while close to Armenia, is not officially recognized by it or, indeed, any other nation. Armenians assert longstanding ties with the region, while Azerbaijan, whose people are mainly Turkic Muslims, also claims deep relations to the area.
Nagorno-Karabakh assumed the status of an autonomous region within the republic of Azerbaijan under the Soviet Union. The First Karabakh War lasted from 1988-1994. Around 30,000 people are estimated to have been killed and perhaps more than a million driven from their homes. Most of the latter were Azeris displaced when Armenia assumed control of Nagorno-Karabakh. The second war in 2020 culminated in a huge loss for the separatist Nagorno-Karabakh state backed by Armenia. In just over a month, Azerbaijan won back large areas of land it had lost in the 1990s. Russia helped negotiate a ceasefire, including about 2,000 peacekeepers to guard the so-called Lachin corridor, the only road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia.
In recent months, tensions have intensified around the region, including after Azerbaijani troops blockaded the Lachin corridor, preventing the import of food and medicines to its roughly 120,000 inhabitants. The offensive on Tuesday also comes after weeks of negotiations brokered by the EU, US and Russia to try to avoid a repeat of the 2020 war and end the worsening famine. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has called for the UN Security Council to take “clear and unambiguous steps to end Azerbaijani aggression.”
Earlier this month, there were hopes that tensions might ease when aid trucks operated by the International Committee of the Red Cross were allowed into Nagorno-Karabakh through the Lachin corridor and, separately, the Aghdam Road from Azerbaijan. However, that optimism may have faded.
Taken together, the Azerbaijan offensive has broader, regional implications beyond Nagorno-Karabakh. Europe and the wider West will want to see the situation stabilized in the coming days. But that scenario is by no means certain, especially if Russia has decided it wants to try to upend the regional status quo.
• Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.

Zelensky delivers an important message to America
Luke Coffey/Arab News/September 23/2023
Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky visited the US last week for two important engagements. His first stop was New York to address the annual UN General Assembly. He then travelled to Washington to meet US President Joe Biden, Pentagon officials, and US politicians on Capitol Hill.
The timing of his visit was crucial for three reasons. First, Ukraine is in the middle of its major counteroffensive to repel Russian forces. Even though Kyiv is making advances, progress has been slower than many had hoped. Furthermore, the US has been reluctant to provide Ukraine with the long range weapons that are needed. Zelensky wants to change this. Second, winter is fast approaching and memories of electricity and heating outages from Russian airstrikes last year are still fresh in the minds of many Ukrainians. Last week, Russia attacked Ukraine’s electrical power grid for the first time in months, leaving thousands without electricity. This was a reminder of how difficult last winter was and foreshadowed how challenging the coming winter might be. After long-range missiles, Zelensky will be asking for more air defense systems.
Finally, Congress will soon be voting on whether to give Ukraine more military and financial support. Additional aid will be crucial heading into the winter months, but some politicians are growing skeptical of sending more aid to Ukraine. Zelensky will be in Washington trying to convince them otherwise.
This year the president addressed the General Assembly in person, having spoken virtually last year. Muchof his speech focused on nuclear threats by Moscow. He told the audience: “Look what Russia did to our Zaporizhzhia power plant — shelled it, occupied it and now blackmails others with radiation leaks.”
With the eyes of the world watching, he also took the opportunity to address the breakdown of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. This deal was brokered by Türkiye last year to allow much needed Ukrainian grain to be shipped to countries across Africa, the Middle East and China. Until this agreement, Russia was preventing grain ships from leaving Ukrainian ports. For almost a year Ukrainian grain was exported without any threats from the Russian Navy. Since July, Russia has suspended its participation in the initiative leaving global food security in doubt.
After New York, President Zelensky headed south to make the case to policymakers in Washington for more aid for Ukraine. This was no easy task.
An increasing number of Republicans oppose additional support for Ukraine. They are joined by some Democrats who are also growing weary of continued military aid — especially after the Biden administration’s decision this year to provide cluster munitions to Ukraine. This has created an unusual dynamic in American politics in which politicians on the far-right and far-left are now aligning with one another against more support for Ukraine.
Zelenskyy delivered a strong message during his visit to the US. It remains to be seen if this message was heard. For the sake of Ukraine, let’s hope that it was.
Zelensky spent hours meeting members of Congress. He also received military briefings at the Pentagon and met Biden at the White House. He concluded his visit with a major speech at the National Archives Building. Throughout his visit there was one clear message: The sooner Ukraine gets the weapons it needs, the sooner the war will end.
It is too early to tell if Zelensky’s visit to Washington will have an impact on skeptical politicians. However, there is a strong case to be made for the US to continue its military support for Ukraine.
Despite what some in Congress argue, the US can easily afford to continue current levels of support. Over the past 19 months, American assistance to Ukraine has amounted to only about 0.04 percent of GDP. If the political will is found, this is easily affordable. American taxpayers have received a great return in investment too. Ukraine has been dismantling the armed forces of Russia — one of America’s top geopolitical adversaries — for pennies on the dollar. It is also likely that Ukraine’s stiff resistance against Russia’s invasion has played a key role in deterring any aggression against Taiwan.
Some politicians use the excuse that Europeans are not doing enough for Ukraine,to argue that the US should do less. This is no longer true. Collectively, Europeans have now committed more money than the USto help Ukraine. As a percentage of GDP, the US ranks behind 20 European countries in terms of aid.
Some in the US argue that more military aid delays peace talks and prolongs the war. This is easy to say sitting comfortably thousands of kilometers away from the frontlines. The Ukrainians are fighting for their national survival. If Russia stops its military operations, the war ends immediately. If Ukrainians stop fighting, their nation could disappear. The Kremlin has not shown any sign of wanting a negotiated peace. On the contrary, Moscow just launched another wave of recruitment to send fresh troops to Ukraine. If American politicians want the war to end quickly, then they should provide Ukraine with what it needs to win, and not just enough aid to merely survive. As America enters a presidential election campaign, it will be tempting for some to bring politics into the debate about US support for Ukraine. That would be a mistake. Cutting off US military assistance to Ukraine doesn’t hurt Biden. It hurts only Ukrainians.
Zelenskyy delivered a strong message during his visit to the US. It remains to be seen if this message was heard. For the sake of Ukraine, let’s hope that it was.
*Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. X: @LukeDCoffey

Oslo shattered a taboo
Dr James J. Zogby/The Arab Weekly/September 23/2023
As we approach the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Oslo Accords, there will be commentary galore about how the accords failed. There will be predictable finger-pointing. Some of it will ring true, but most will miss the point.
Let me be clear from the outset: despite being an eyewitness to its unravelling, I am not at all embarrassed to say that I supported Oslo.
Thirty years ago, news of an Israeli-PLO agreement hit Washington like an earthquake, shattering taboos and upending what had been considered political constants. I was part of the group of hundreds of Arab Americans and American Jews who were there on the White House lawn to witness the signing ceremony. After the signing, when President Clinton nudged Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin pressing him to accept PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat’s outstretched hand, an audible gasp could be heard from the assembled, followed by applause and handshakes and embracing throughout the audience. Something big had just happened, and it was exciting. But because we were entering uncharted waters, hopefulness was mixed with uncertainty.
To those who were not of age in the years before September 13, 1993, the handshake may not have seemed a big deal. But for the generation who grew up under the cloud of anti-Palestinian bigotry and Arab American exclusion, it was enormous.
In 1975, as part of the Sinai Disengagement Agreement, Israel had secured a secret pledge from the US that it would never to talk to the PLO. Commenting on this, then Israeli Prime Minister Shamir said that his aversion to the PLO was not based on what they did, but what they stood for, Palestinian national rights. Further elaborating, in 1985, speaking in Washington, then minister of defence, Yitzhak Rabin declared that talking to the PLO was unacceptable because “Whoever agrees to talk to the PLO means he accepts in principle the creation of a Palestinian state between Israel and Jordan.” And this Israel could not accept. In the US, pro-Israel groups did their best to broaden this rejection of all things Palestinian. The State Department forcefully implemented a “no-talk” policy. Legislation was passed declaring the PLO a terrorist group. When I attempted to modify the 1988 Democratic Party platform to include very modest language affirming the rights of the Palestinian people, I was told “If that ‘p word’ even appears in the platform, all hell will break loose.”
Not satisfied with demonising the Palestinian cause and their organisations, pro-Israel groups imposed a religious-like taboo on Palestinian leaders. It was not enough to secure restrictions banning US politicians from meeting Arafat or other top PLO leaders, physical contact was seen as making a politician unclean. Campaigns were run against congressmen who met Arafat denouncing them for “shaking Arafat’s hand.”
And so here we were, on that September day, watching Israel not only talking to and signing an agreement with the PLO, but now shaking hands with the person whom they had spent decades vilifying.
More than anything, this handshake, which out of context may seem to some to have been an inconsequential act, was the shattering of a taboo that pro-Israel groups had worked decades to establish and which they had used to torment or destroy the political careers of those who risked defying them.
Oslo also opened the White House doors to Arab Americans, normalising for the first time our relationship with government. The community was given the respect it deserved and had for too long been denied. And while our foes continued to oppose us and made efforts to exclude us, the doors, once opened, could not easily be closed.
Thirty years later, those breakthroughs may seem to pale in the face of the enormity of the sufferings still endured by Palestinians. But seen in the American political context, they were important and not to dismissed.
In the end, Oslo did fail. And while the fingers of blame can point in many directions, ultimately, as I will discuss in my next column, it was the refusal of the US to assume its responsibility as guarantor of the process that is the main reason for the disaster the Israeli-Palestinian arena has become.
*Dr James J. Zogby is President of the Washington-based Arab

Thanks to the Policies of the Obama and Biden Administrations, the New Axis of Evil – Russia, China, North Korea, Iran – Posing a Worldwide Existential Threat
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/September 23, 2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/122517/122517/
The Biden administration… is also financing the ruling mullahs of Iran with billions of dollars to put the finishing touches on the country’s nuclear program and for delivering more weapons to Russia with which to attack Ukraine.
“We’re sitting still, and the Chinese, the Russians, Iran, North Korea, and several others, are moving to shore up their relations and threaten us in a lot of different places.” — Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton, The Hill, March 12, 2023.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the Biden administration seems to be allowing Iran’s ruling mullahs to prosper from the war and emerge as the winners.
“I have a question for you – how does Russia pay Iran for this, in your opinion? Is Iran just interested in money? Probably not money at all, but Russian assistance to the Iranian nuclear program. Probably, this is exactly the meaning of their alliance” — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Jerusalem Post, November 4, 2022.
“Today, China, Russia, North Korea and Iran continue to invest in technologies to expand their capabilities to hit the United States with nuclear weapons. All four countries have also escalated their threatening rhetoric, indicating their willingness to use nuclear weapons in a military conflict. By expanding their nuclear programs, each has made clear that our nuclear arsenal is no longer a deterrent to their potential use of nuclear weapons.” — U.S. Rep. Mike Turner, Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee and a senior member of the House Armed Services Committee, Fox News, May 4, 2023.
Thanks to the Obama and Biden administrations’ monumental capitulations to Iran’s regime — and the refusal of both administrations not only to stop Iran’s nuclear weapons program but also to prevent anyone else from stopping it — the Russian-Iranian-Chinese-North Korean alliance now poses a global existential threat.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the Biden administration seems to be allowing Iran’s ruling mullahs to prosper from the war and emerge as the winners. Iran has become a major weapons exporter to Russia. Iran’s arms exports to Russia are providing the mullahs with a great opportunity to perfect their military systems as well as to profit financially. Pictured: Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Samarkand, Uzbekistan on September 15, 2022. (Photo by Alexandr Demyanchuk/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images)
Not only is the Biden administration turning a blind eye on the growing alliance between Iran, Russia, China and North Korea, and looking the other way on their evasions of sanctions, it is also financing the ruling mullahs of Iran with billions of dollars to put the finishing touches on the country’s nuclear program and for delivering more weapons to Russia with which to attack Ukraine.
“We’re sitting still, and the Chinese, the Russians, Iran, North Korea, and several others, are moving to shore up their relations and threaten us in a lot of different places,” former US National Security Advisor John Bolton recently warned.
“It’s an indication that the Saudis and others are trying to hedge their bets with China and Russia, because they don’t think the United States has the resolve and the fortitude necessary to do what they need to do to protect the world against Iran and its intentions. The Chinese have a strategy they’ve been following. We kind of wander around from day to day.”
Iran is currently producing more oil and selling it at levels close to the pre-sanctions era to countries such as China, which desperately needs more oil. China, North Korea and Russia have also been upgrading and expanding their nuclear arsenals. The Iranian regime, now that it is aligned with Putin’s Russia and the Chinese Communist Party, would probably be delighted to conquer the US and Israel.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the Biden administration seems to be allowing Iran’s ruling mullahs to prosper from the war and emerge as the winners. Iran has become a major weapons exporter to Russia – and not limited to exporting just drones. Iran’s arms exports to Russia are providing the mullahs with a great opportunity to perfect their military systems as well as to profit financially.
The Iranian regime, of course, needs something more in return from Russia than just putting the finishing touches on its nuclear weapons program. Militarily speaking, Russia is moving to provide advanced military equipment to Iran’s regime, such as air defense systems, helicopters and fighter jets. This can only make the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism — which chants “Death to America,” “Death to Israel,” and freely murders its own citizens – an even stronger expansionist state.
David Barnea, director of Israel’s Mossad, warned on September 11, 2023:
“I have a feeling that more deals will be interdicted soon. We are concerned that the Russians will meet Iran’s demands to supply it with weapons and raw materials that will put Israel at risk.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also previously warned:
“I have a question for you – how does Russia pay Iran for this, in your opinion? Is Iran just interested in money? Probably not money at all, but Russian assistance to the Iranian nuclear program. Probably, this is exactly the meaning of their alliance.” If Russia succeeds in helping Iran acquire nuclear bombs, this is an existential threat not only to Israel, but also to the US and its allies. After all, one of the core pillars of the Islamic Republic of Iran has been to destroy both the United States (“the Great Satan”) the Jewish state (“the Little Satan”).
“YOU WILL NOT SEE NEXT 25 YEARS,” Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wrote in 2015 to the “Zionist regime.” “GOD WILLING, THERE WILL BE NOTHING AS ZIONIST REGIME BY NEXT 25 YEARS.” It is also one of the religious prophecies of the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, as well as his successor, Khamenei, that Israel will be “eradicated.”
When it comes to the United States, the Iranian regime has made its intentions clear as well. In November 2022, Khamenei vowed: “Death to America will happen. In the new order I am talking about America will no longer have any important role.”
The headline of a report from 2019 by Iran’s state-controlled Afkar News read: “American Soil Is Now Within the Range of Iranian Bombs”. The report boasted: “The same type of ballistic missile technology used to launch the satellite could carry nuclear, chemical or even biological weapons to wipe Israel off the map, hit US bases and allies in the region and US facilities, and target NATO even in the far west of Europe….”
U.S. Rep. Mike Turner, chairman of the House Intelligence Committee and a senior member of the House Armed Services Committee, warned on May 4, 2023: “Today, China, Russia, North Korea and Iran continue to invest in technologies to expand their capabilities to hit the United States with nuclear weapons. All four countries have also escalated their threatening rhetoric, indicating their willingness to use nuclear weapons in a military conflict. By expanding their nuclear programs, each has made clear that our nuclear arsenal is no longer a deterrent to their potential use of nuclear weapons. If deterrence is dead, then the concept of mutually assured destruction is obsolete and comprehensive missile defense must be revisited as an essential capability to protect our citizens.”
Thanks to the Obama and Biden administrations’ monumental capitulations to Iran’s regime — and the refusal of both administrations not only to stop Iran’s nuclear weapons program but also to prevent anyone else from stopping it — the Russian-Iranian-Chinese-North Korean alliance now poses a global existential threat.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
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