Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 04-05/2023
Qatari envoy secretly meets with politicians over presidential crisis
Naharnet/September 04/2023
A Qatari security envoy is meeting with Lebanese MPs and politicians, away from the spotlight, to discuss the election of Army chief Gen. Joseph Aoun as a consensual president, media reports said. The Qatari diplomat is meeting with change and independent MPs and has also met with figures close to the Shiite Duo, Ad-Diyar newspaper reported Monday, adding that Qatar prefers to hold the meetings in secrecy as it does not want its initiative to conflict with the French dialogue initiative. French special presidential envoy for Lebanon Jean-Yves Le Drian is scheduled to return to Lebanon this month. He had proposed on his last visit to Beirut to invite all those taking part in the process of electing a president to a meeting in September to achieve a consensus on the challenges and on the priority projects the future president will have to carry out, and consequently the qualities necessary for tackling them. THe Qatari envoy will leave Beirut in the coming days and will return at the end of the month after Le Drian's visit ends, Ad-Diyar said.

Report: KSA says Iran not allowed to win in Lebanon
Naharnet/September 04/2023
Saudi Arabia has sent clear signals to its allies that “it is prohibited for Tehran to win in Lebanon,” sources informed on the Saudi stance said. “The Saudi-Iranian agreement includes Yemen in the first degree and Syria in the second degree and its winds are yet to reach Lebanon,” the sources told the Nidaa al-Watan newspaper in remarks published Monday. “The Lebanese calculations are totally different than the calculations in Yemen, Iraq and Syria,” the sources added. “In the face of this inflexible Saudi stance, the opposition Sunni bloc and the Democratic Gathering bloc will not be able to endorse any candidate who does not enjoy a Saudi green light and is considered part of the Hezbollah axis,” the sources went on to say. The sources also said that Washington’s stance “does not allow the election of a president belonging to the Iranian axis.”

Response vs. Reality: LBCI reminds Culture Minister Mourtada of his actual responsibilities
LBCI/September 04/2023
Culture Minister Mohammad Mourtada has issued a detailed response to a report by LBCI, addressing questions about the role of culture ministers regionally and internationally compared to his responsibilities. In his response, Mourtada denounced it, highlighting his extensive involvement in domestic and international cultural activities. Mourtada emphasized his "significant contributions to Lebanon's cultural scene, stating that he has actively nurtured cultural initiatives throughout the country. He has been a staunch supporter of public forums, libraries, cultural centers, exhibitions, theaters, and other cultural outlets within Lebanon and abroad. Furthermore, Mourtada has not hesitated to support creative and independent cultural endeavors and has organized unifying national events, such as celebrating Independence Day, Christmas, and other significant occasions." However, the Minister was astonished at how these vital contributions were seemingly overlooked. Objectively, we revisited the core mission of the Culture Ministry by referencing the law that established it. In 1993, the Culture and Higher Education Ministry was established by law and amended twice. The first amendment occurred when higher education was separated from the Ministry and transferred to the Education Ministry. The second amendment took place in 2008 when modifications were introduced to the Ministry's organizational structure. The final version comprises 14 pages and outlines 18 critical responsibilities for the Culture Ministry. These include defining the general cultural policy and coordinating its implementation, fostering knowledge-based economic development, promoting creativity, research, and the protection of cultural heritage, and proposing measures to enhance the rights of artists and creators. What remains to be clarified is that attending and lecturing at forums and similar activities, along with commemorating official national holidays, were not explicitly mentioned in these core tasks. This omission could be seen as an oversight by lawmakers or perhaps by the Minister himself. It raises concerns significantly when many other countries in the region are rapidly advancing their cultural initiatives and implementing comprehensive strategies. Rather than getting bogged down in minor details, it would be more prudent for Lebanon to craft a visionary cultural strategy to rejuvenate its cultural landscape. While Lebanon was once celebrated as a beacon of culture and a refuge for intellectuals, it now needs a clear cultural strategy, which should be a cornerstone of the Ministry's mission.

Mansouri lauds KSA role, assures that BDL will not finance state
Naharnet/September 04/2023
Interim Central Bank Governor Wassim Mansouri reassured Monday that the Central Bank will not finance the Lebanese state, neither in dollar nor in LBP. "The decision is final," Mansouri said in an interview with al-Arabiyya, stressing that the state must find other ways to finance its budget deficit. The acting BDL governor is visiting Riyadh for the first time to participate in the Arab Banking Conference, nearly a month after he took over the leadership at the Central Bank as the term of his predecessor, Riad Salameh, ended on July 31. "Saudi Arabia will always play a positive role in helping Lebanon to overcome its financial crisis," Mansouri said, on the conference's sidelines. Mansouri had previously announced in a press conference in Lebanon that the bank will not print Lebanese currency to cover for the state's deficit and that financial regularity cannot be achieved without passing reforms. Since taking office, Mansouri has been urging the government to pass some reforms, cautioning that the Central Bank cannot continue to spend money to fund the government’s budget deficit. "There is no choice, if we continue previous policy ... the funds in the Central Bank will eventually dry up," Mansouri had said. He also vowed to phase out the Sayrafa platform and froze last month the accounts of the bank's embattled former chief and close relatives and associates days after the United States, United Kingdom and Canada slapped sanctions on them.

Arab Banks Union's annual conference in Riyadh: Acting BDL Governor addresses economic challenges
LBCI/September 04/2023
The Arab Banks Union warmly welcomed the Acting Banque du Liban (BDL) Governor, Wassim Mansouri, at its annual financial conference in Riyadh under the theme "Arab Economic Prospects amid International Changes." The event was held under the patronage of Ayman bin Mohammed Al-Sayari, the Governor of the Saudi Arabian Central Bank, who was also in attendance. The Arab Banks Union conference underlined its commitment to supporting the BDL and the Lebanese banking sector, emphasizing its dedication to aiding Lebanon's central bank, particularly under its new governorship. The Union pledged to leverage its relationships and resources to contribute to the successful execution of the central bank's mission to stabilize Lebanon's financial situation. The Secretary-General of the Arab Banks Union, Dr. Wissam Fattouh, played a significant role in facilitating communication between Wassim Mansouri and essential figures in the Saudi Arabian banking sector. These interactions were characterized by a positive atmosphere. During an interview with Al Arabiya, Mansouri addressed Lebanon's significant economic and financial challenges. Despite the hurdles, he expressed optimism about the recovery of depositors' funds, highlighting the establishment of a new platform for foreign exchange trading, and mentioned that exchange rates would see reductions in the upcoming budget.

Geagea says years of vacuum better than 'Axis of Defiance' president
Naharnet/September 04/2023
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea has accused Hezbollah of being behind the kidnap and murder of LF member Elias Hasrouni last month, noting that the incident “resembles the dialogue that the Axis of Defiance has been calling for since months.”“The invite you to dialogue to strangle you and kill you or to stifle your principles, beliefs and freedom and force you to do what they want,” Geagea said in an annual speech commemorating the “martyrs of the Lebanese Resistance”. “The Defiance camp is criminal par excellence,” Geagea added, reminding of “the assassination of Rafik Hariri, Bassel Fleihan, Samir Kassir, Georges Hawi, Gebran Tueini, Pierre Gemayel, Walid Eido, Antoine Ghanem, Wissam Eid, Wissam al-Hassan, Mohammed Chatah and Lokman Slim.”He also reminded of Hezbollah’s May 7, 2008 military operation in Beirut and Mount Lebanon, accusing the party and its allies of killing more than 100 people during that campaign. “A lot of times the road to hell is paved with good intentions and words, but in the end it remains the road to hell, that’s why we will not take it and we will shout that they shall not enter Baabda,” Geagea added. “We are willing to bear vacuum for months and years, but we are not willing at all to bear their corruption, thefts, mismanagement and their statelet’s control of our state,” the LF leader went on to say. “We will only accept a president who would embody our beliefs and aspirations and who would be at the level of the rescue mission that the country needs,” Geagea added.

Bukhari visits Rahi in Diman, stresses need to hold swift presidential election
NNA/September 04/2023
Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon, Walid Bukhari, on Monday visited Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Mar Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi in Diman. According to a statement from the Saudi embassy, “discussions focused on bilateral relations and the best means to strengthen them, as well as on the latest developments on the Lebanese scene, notably the presidential election and the need to hold it as quickly as possible.“The meeting also highlighted the paramount importance of boosting Lebanon’s ties with Arab countries and discussed a number of issues of mutual interest.

Sami Gemayel says opposition to confront 'Hezbollah's coup'
Naharnet/September 04/2023
Kataeb Party chief Sami Gemayel has anew rejected Speaker Nabih Berri’s call for dialogue and said the opposition will confront what he called “Hezbollah’s coup.”“We are the advocates of dialogue and we’re the ones who are adhering to Lebanon and partnership the most. The moment in which Hezbollah decides to reconsiders its approach we will be ready for dialogue and for finding the solutions that relieve everyone so that we live together, but we are not ready to be second-class citizens,” Gemayel said in an interview on al-Jadeed TV. “We will use institutions, the media, our relations inside and outside the country and the peaceful and popular means to stop the coup process, and this is what Hezbollah will see, because we have moved from the attempt to find solutions to confronting a coup and we are not in a confrontation phase,” Gemayel added. As for Berri’s dialogue call, Gemayel told the Speaker: “You can’t be the manager of a candidate’s campaign and still call for dialogue. You have a direct interest in this issue and this is a joke.”“Berri will only open parliament for the election of Hezbollah’s ally as president … Should I go to dialogue like a sheep going to slaughter?” Gemayel wondered. The Kataeb chief also reiterated that his camp will “block elections” to prevent Hezbollah from “imposing its candidate.” “As long as there is an armed militia, the problem will remain present. If they elect their president he will be a puppet and if we elect our president they will kill him,” Gemayel charged. Accordingly, he said that efforts are underway to form “a front that rejects that we be governed by a coup party” or to be “second-class citizens.” As for Hezbollah’s candidate Suleiman Franjieh, Gemayel said: “I respect Franjieh and there is no personal problem with him. The problems is in his choices and in being imposed by Hezbollah.”“Hezbollah wants to be a new Rustom Ghazali in Lebanon through making presidents and governments,” Gemayel lamented, referring to a Syrian intelligence officer who had major sway over Lebanon’s politics during Syria’s military presence in Lebanon.

Berri 'cautiously optimistic' over dialogue possibility
Naharnet/September 04/2023
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri is “cautiously optimistic” regarding the possibility of holding national dialogue over the presidential file, after the initiative that he launched in his speech on Thursday, sources close to him said. The sources added, in remarks to al-Joumhouria newspaper, that “despite the rejection of Berri’s initiative by some Christian and political forces, it still can secure success if the Free Patriotic Movement, the majority of Sunni MPs and some of the Change MPs take part in dialogue, knowing that positive signs have been made by these forces as to the speaker’s proposal.”Berri called Thursday on political blocs to engage in dialogue in September to elect a president, a vacancy that has been unfilled for 10 months. Crisis-hit Lebanon has been without a president since Michel Aoun's term ended in October last year, with neither of the two main blocs -- the Iran-backed Hezbollah and its opponents -- having the majority required to elect one. "I call on the leaders and representatives of the parliamentary blocs to take part in a dialogue in parliament in September, for a period not exceeding seven days, following which open sessions would be held... to achieve the election of a president," Berri said. The speaker, whose Amal Movement is closely aligned with Hezbollah, said he was making the appeal "before it is too late." Berri has so far refused requests from members of the anti-Hezbollah camp to hold open sessions until a president is elected. The blocs opposed to Hezbollah and its allies have refused to take part in talks to agree on a head of state before proceeding with a vote, preferring to rely on the democratic process.

Berri says September initiative 'last chance' to sit together, elect president
Naharnet/September 04/2023
Parliament speaker Nabih Berri has renewed his call on political blocs to engage in dialogue to elect a president before the end of September, after 10 months of presidential void. Crisis-hit Lebanon has been without a president since Michel Aoun's term ended in October last year, with neither of the two main blocs -- Hezbollah and its opponents -- having the majority required to elect one. Berri called on everyone, "without exception", to take part in the dialogue in September, in remarks published Monday in al-Joumhouria newspaper. "I have called for a seven-day dialogue, following which open presidential election sessions would be held, in order to satisfy both parties -- those who want dialogue before electing a president and those who want to start the dialogue after a president is elected," Berri said. The speaker said his initiative is the country's "last chance." Lebanon, long divided on sectarian lines, has been hit both by a political void and a major economic crisis. Berri has so far refused requests from members of the anti-Hezbollah camp to hold open sessions until a president is elected. French special presidential envoy for Lebanon Jean-Yves Le Drian, who is scheduled to return to Lebanon this month, had proposed on his last visit to Beirut to invite all those taking part in the process of electing a president to a meeting in September to achieve a consensus on the challenges and on the priority projects the future president will have to carry out, and consequently the qualities necessary for tackling them.
The blocs opposed to Hezbollah and its allies have refused to take part in talks to agree on a head of state before proceeding with a vote, preferring to rely on the democratic process. "They invite you to dialogue to strangle you and kill you or to stifle your principles, beliefs and freedom and force you to do what they want," Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said Sunday. Earlier on Sunday, Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi said that dialogue should be held "without prejudgments" and without imposing ideas, projects and viewpoint. "We must put an end to the presidential crisis before the end of September," Berri said. "We sit together with pure intentions. If we agree on one candidate, that would be great, and if we don't, then we choose two candidates or even more and go to parliament for voting in open sessions with full quorum." Berri told al-Joumhouria that regardless of the dialogue's outcome and whether it succeeds or fails, he will call for open sessions until a president is elected.

Ongoing debate: Finance and Budget Committee stalls on financial reform legislation
LBCI/September 04/2023
The Parliamentary Finance and Budget Committee has concluded its meeting without making any significant progress on the proposed Financial Rebalancing and Banking Restructuring Law. A date for the next meeting remains undecided. However, the Committee head, Ibrahim Kanaan, and its members have received assurances from Finance Minister Youssef Khalil, representatives from the Banque du Liban (BDL), the Banking Control Commission, and the Parliament that efforts are underway to provide concrete figures for discussion. The discussions revolve around two primary aspects: government revenues and assets, particularly regarding rumors of a deposit recovery fund, and the financial condition of individual banks. The evaluation process that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had requested for the 14 significant banks has not yet taken place. Of particular concern is how depositors can benefit from the rumored $100,000 deposit cap should the numbers demanded by the Finance and Budget Committee not materialize. The issue of banking restructuring is not merely about financial numbers and liquidity but also involves the legal framework of the proposed law. It appears that negotiations between the government and the IMF regarding the legal format of the law are still pending. In contrast, Deputy Prime Minister Saadeh al-Chami, who did not attend the committee meeting due to his presence abroad, questioned the timing of the demand for detailed figures on bank assets.
Al-Chami argued that if precise asset numbers are needed, it might take up to a year, questioning why this demand has arisen at this moment. He further noted that the government and the Banking Control Commission have already provided the Finance Committee with extensive data on the assets of the BDL and commercial banks, including spending in various sectors, particularly subsidies and electricity. In conclusion, the result is inconclusive, and further discussions are needed. Continuous delays in addressing these critical financial laws are contributing to the erosion of deposits and increased challenges within the Lebanese banking sector and the BDL.

Closed centers: RTA grapples with financial difficulties as state loses billions
LBCI/September 04/2023
Lebanon's Road and Transport Authority (RTA) faces dire financial challenges as the State Treasury lost an astonishing LBP 552 billion in just two months due to the closure of service centers. The RTA was a crucial source of revenue, providing LBP 23 billion daily to the state treasury when they operated three days a week. The closure came after disputes with the company Inkript over payment terms, ultimately resolved in favor of the state, allowing it to pursue legal action against Inkript. Currently, RTA has reopened to resume processing pending transactions. Thus, if it was no longer possible to submit to the company that deprived the state of a "goldmine," it reopened its five centers and the operating system to manage the pending transactions. Representatives from these centers, Marwan Abboud, the acting head of the Traffic Management Authority, and Ali Taha, the acting head of the RTA, convened for a three-hour meeting to discuss the new pricing structure for driver's licenses, vehicle registration, and electronic tags. Inkript has proposed reducing the cost of these transactions to between one and two dollars. If the government approves these rates, the price for a driver's license could potentially increase from LBP 42,000 to LBP 1.5 million, not accounting for operational expenses. Similarly, the cost for a vehicle registration book may rise from LBP 42,000 to LBP 1.2 million, based on an exchange rate of LBP 90,000 per US dollar, as specified in a government decision outlining how operator fees are calculated. While these numbers remain tentative, estimating the treasury's profits will be challenging. Nevertheless, the state will be able to meet its obligations to Inkript. This action would require legislation, if deemed necessary, to increase fees. Today, this "goldmine" has the potential to generate LBP 45 billion daily from the RTA center in Dekweneh alone, assuming a swift resolution is reached.

Human trafficking: Illegal migration wave poses challenges on Northern Lebanese borders
LBCI/September 04/2023
The northern borders of Lebanon have fallen into the hands of human trafficking mafias, witnessing a surge in illegal migration towards Lebanese territory. While the Lebanese army has apprehended thousands of Syrians and returned them, the number of individuals entering Lebanon illegally remains uncountable. The northern borders boast more than forty known crossing points recognized by military and security forces. Through these passages and others, Syrians are smuggled into Lebanon. Some crossings bear the names of their owners, families, or clans, such as the Al-Khoury crossing, Abou Victor crossing in Chadra, and the equivalents on the Awinat Kfar Noun and Al-Dababiyya route, along with crossings in Manjaz and Rmeih. Like many others, these crossings are active, with the presence of traffickers and the Syrian army not impeding the smugglers' movements. Furthermore, the Lebanese army's presence is more effective at checkpoints and patrols, especially the Chadra checkpoint. The owners of these crossings, as are their smuggling networks and methods, are well-known. The wave of illegal migration between Lebanon and Syria has become a lucrative trade for smuggling mafias and individuals. While crossing costs approximately $100, transportation from deep within Syria to the depths of Lebanon through a smuggler ranges from $200 to $400. If the smuggling operation fails, a portion of the amount may be refunded, or the smuggler may assist the individual in making another attempt. Will Lebanese policymakers intervene and tighten security to apprehend these known smuggling mafias operating freely along the northern borders?

LBCI responds to recent statements by the Culture Minister
LBCI/September 04/2023
The statement from the Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation International reads as follows: "We support the principle of separating religion from the state. Religious authorities have no role in worldly matters. This is well understood by the former judge, who rules based only on laws and texts established by the Lebanese state. Additionally, the authority of a minister in the Lebanese state is derived from Lebanese laws in effect, and it is assumed that if a minister wishes to change the laws, they should do so through the Parliament and not through any other council, religious or otherwise. We remind the minister of the responsibilities outlined in the law establishing the Ministry of Culture, which are much broader than the issues he mentioned in his statement, and which fundamentally aim to make Lebanon a global cultural platform that the United Nations can be proud of. We are completely removed from 'fire' and its derivatives, and we believe in dialogue and acceptance of the other in nation-building. May this response be sufficient to correct outdated, uncultured notions that may have formed in the minister's mind."

Ongoing debate: Finance and Budget Committee stalls on financial reform legislation
LBCI/September 04/2023
The Parliamentary Finance and Budget Committee has concluded its meeting without making any significant progress on the proposed Financial Rebalancing and Banking Restructuring Law. A date for the next meeting remains undecided. However, the Committee head, Ibrahim Kanaan, and its members have received assurances from Finance Minister Youssef Khalil, representatives from the Banque du Liban (BDL), the Banking Control Commission, and the Parliament that efforts are underway to provide concrete figures for discussion. The discussions revolve around two primary aspects: government revenues and assets, particularly regarding rumors of a deposit recovery fund, and the financial condition of individual banks. The evaluation process that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had requested for the 14 significant banks has not yet taken place. Of particular concern is how depositors can benefit from the rumored $100,000 deposit cap should the numbers demanded by the Finance and Budget Committee not materialize. The issue of banking restructuring is not merely about financial numbers and liquidity but also involves the legal framework of the proposed law. It appears that negotiations between the government and the IMF regarding the legal format of the law are still pending. In contrast, Deputy Prime Minister Saadeh al-Chami, who did not attend the committee meeting due to his presence abroad, questioned the timing of the demand for detailed figures on bank assets. Al-Chami argued that if precise asset numbers are needed, it might take up to a year, questioning why this demand has arisen at this moment. He further noted that the government and the Banking Control Commission have already provided the Finance Committee with extensive data on the assets of the BDL and commercial banks, including spending in various sectors, particularly subsidies and electricity. In conclusion, the result is inconclusive, and further discussions are needed. Continuous delays in addressing these critical financial laws are contributing to the erosion of deposits and increased challenges within the Lebanese banking sector and the BDL.

Berri welcomes newly appointed French, Qatari Ambassadors, discusses situation with former minister Aridi
NNA/September 04/2023
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Monday welcomed at the second presidency’s headquarters in Ain El-Tineh, the newly appointed French Ambassador to Lebanon, Hervé Magro, who paid him a protocol visit upon assuming his diplomatic mission in Lebanon. The visit was an occasion to discuss the current general situation and the latest developments, and the bilateral relations between Lebanon and France. Speaker Berri later received the newly appointed Qatari Ambassador to Lebanon, Sheikh Saoud bin Abdul Rahman bin Faisal Thani Al Thani, who came on a protocol visit upon assuming his diplomatic mission in Lebanon. Discussions reportedly touched on the latest developments and the bilateral relations between the two countries. This afternoon, Berri met with former Minister Ghazi al-Aridi, with whom he discussed the current general situation and the latest political developments.

Lebanese Army thwarts attempt to smuggle 1,100 Syrians across Lebanese-Syrian border
NNA/September 04/2023
The Lebanese Army Command - Directorate of Orientation on Monday issued the following statement: "Within the framework of combating people smuggling and illegal infiltration across the Lebanese land border, Lebanese army units thwarted last week a smuggling attempt of approximately 1,100 Syrians across the Lebanese-Syrian border."

Finance Ministry sends 2023 state budget draft law final version to Council of Ministers’ Secretariat in preparation for referring it to Parliament
NNA/September 04/2023
The Media Office of the Ministry of Finance on Monday announced in a statement, “After the Ministry of Finance completed all the amendments approved by the Council of Ministers on the 2023 state budget draft law, the Ministry sent the final version of the draft law to the General Secretariat of the Presidency of the Council of Ministers, which will refer it to the House of Parliament for discussion and approval.”

Bou Habib meets new EU Head of Mission to Lebanon
NNA/September 04/2023
Caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants, Dr. Abdullah Bou Habib, on Monday welcomed in his office, the new EU Head of Mission to Lebanon, Sandra De Waele, who paid him an acquaintance visit.

American University of Beirut marks a new era of recovery and progress on Opening Day
NNA/September 04/2023
The American University of Beirut (AUB) welcomed Chairman of the Board of Trustees Philip S. Khoury and several of the university’s trustees, as well as its deans, leadership, faculty, staff, and students to its 158th Opening Day ceremony, a symbolic testament to the institution's resilience and commitment to excellence. AUB President Fadlo Khuri delivered a compelling speech, highlighting the university's remarkable journey and its pivotal role in shaping the future of Lebanon and beyond, as the university’s 2023-24 academic year commences. "This year, after four years of conjoined crises that have plagued Lebanon, we can confidently state that the American University of Beirut has not merely started to recover. It has started to flourish,” Khuri declared. He highlighted several notable achievements, starting with the consistent growth in faculty and staff numbers across the campus and the AUB Medical Center (AUBMC), contributing to the university's vibrant community. Khuri also stated that the allocation of $165 million over the last several years to support the decoupling of the university finances from the rapidly devaluating Lebanese currency has allowed AUB’s faculty and staff to anticipate secure futures in both their careers and retirement. AUB's commitment to research and educational excellence is further exemplified by the record numbers of research and educational grants received over the past three years, enabling the education of exceptional graduate and undergraduate students from diverse backgrounds.
"Our student community is more economically diverse than it has been in more than five decades," Khuri said, adding that with over 20% of students educated for free, AUB's dedication to accessible education and diversity remains unwavering. “One quarter of our faculty and almost one in five of our students at AUB are international, a number that is certain to climb as our Mediterranean and AUB Online ambitions grow.”
He also stated that this fall term, incoming student numbers and quality are the strongest they have been since 2019, with around 2,000 new freshmen and sophomore students, and over 110 medical students launching into their chosen course of study at AUB. "Our academic programs are world class, and it will be a top priority for us to ensure that our future graduates continue to enjoy substantive career and post-graduate opportunities," Khuri emphasized. Expanding its footprint beyond its iconic campus in Beirut, AUB is set to inaugurate its first-ever twin campus in Pafos, Cyprus in two days, on September 6. AUB Mediterraneo will launch with its first cohort of undergraduate and graduate students, and with a goal to reach 2,000 students by 2035. “Our first ever permanent university branch outside the cozy confines of Ras Beirut will develop into a European base to complement our home in Beirut,” Khuri said. Khuri added that AUB's acquisition of the Keserwan Medical Center, the university's first community hospital, “will help expand our national health capacity and enable AUB to better serve the people of our home nation.” With plans to double the bed capacity over the next decade, AUB aims to provide world-class, AUBMC quality medical care to Northern Lebanon. Addressing the issues of citizenship, nationhood, and accountability in Lebanon and its neighboring countries, Khuri emphasized the importance of citizenship education. He highlighted that AUB will be placing effort in reinvigorating discussions around this within its faculties and schools, as well as centers and institutes. “That is part of our obligation to our citizen-students and to our mission.”As AUB embarks on the latest phase in its journey, Khuri called on the community to "empower those who trust and depend on us, one citizen at a time."

Why any Middle East reset has to start in Lebanon
Nadim Shehadi/Arab News/September 04, 2023
If the US and its allies in the Gulf states are serious about turning the page and solving the conflicts of the region, the place to start should be Lebanon. It is a barometer that can foresee both problems and their solutions.
If democracies are not supposed to go to war with each other, then how come Lebanon and Israel are on the brink of war year after year while they both claim to be the only democracy in the Middle East? Both states faced the same dilemma at their creation, but their different answers to the same questions led them toward divergent but equally turbulent paths.
One of the most fundamental questions the region has to grapple with is: Can people who do not share similar ethnic origins or religious beliefs live together in a stable and democratic state? It is not easy and it is too late to ask this question now. We already have these states and we are not about to redraw all the borders. The answer, therefore, has to be yes.
However, one Israeli journalist and one Lebanese banker both found that the other country made the wrong choice. According to Uri Avnery, Lebanon was a mistake and Israel should avoid following its path at any cost. Avnery had great credentials. A prominent peace activist, he had also fought in Israel’s war of independence, so no one could question his patriotism. On July 3, 1983, he literally crossed all the lines and was the first Israeli to meet with Yasser Arafat while he was under siege in Beirut during Israel’s invasion of Lebanon. He was also a contributor to Arab News.
In 2011, Avnery wrote an article that stated that Lebanese Christians made the wrong choice when they lobbied for the creation of a Greater Lebanon in which they were no longer the absolute majority. He was obviously projecting. Looking at the map, he feared that Israel would do the same if it annexed the West Bank and Gaza, ensuring that the Jews would no longer form a majority.
For Avnery, “the Lebanese malaise started with a crucial decision made on the very day the state was set up,” when Christians chose to include people of different religions in the same state. Some Lebanese would agree with him.
But there was an equally negative view of Israel by the Lebanese banker and journalist Michel Chiha, who in many ways can be considered the main founder of the Lebanese political system. He emphatically wrote that it was the creation of Israel as a “Jewish state” that was the mistake. Chiha was one of the principal authors of the Lebanese constitution in 1926 and was credited with introducing the elements of communal power-sharing that, for Avnery, are actually the problem.
In 1947, Chiha stated that “the decision to partition Palestine with the creation of a Jewish state will prove to be the worst universal error ever committed.” He added that “an error of this magnitude committed in this century will have repercussions on our descendants in the next.”
For Chiha, Lebanese nationalism constituted a rich array of different people who were bound by the will to live together despite the differences of their religious backgrounds and who history had brought together in the same geographical setting. It is, in a way, exactly the opposite of Israel and he was thus opposed to the UN Partition Plan for Palestine. For him, “those nations who chose to support partition also chose the outrageous option of creating the most prejudiced and the most exclusively confessional state in the world. This is the fact that liberals will not face and what the so-called ‘democracies’ are recommending.” Some Israelis and diaspora Jews would also agree with him.
The Arab-Israeli conflict has all but disappeared from the rest of the Arab world but is still alive in Lebanon. Most importantly for Chiha, the fact that you can have an assembly or parliament driven by “the will to live in common,” and where Maronites, Sunnis, Shiites, Druze, Melchites, Catholics, Orthodox and multiple other sects can debate together an outcome for the common good away from their respective affiliations means that the result can be of universal importance.
This last idea is echoed by the Lebanese historian Kamal Salibi. For him, it was precisely because the Lebanese population happened to be divided, socially and politically, between equally forceful Christian and Muslim sides that disagreed on fundamental issues that the Lebanese state could only function as a democracy or, more correctly, as the “democratic management of a perennial conflict situation.”
This made Lebanon an open society, even if by default, where all issues could be debated freely. This included all the regional issues that could not be debated in the rest of the Arab world.
Thus, in the 1980s, at the height of the Lebanese Civil War, the ideas that were fought over between gangs in the streets of Beirut were in fact part of broader regional disputes, such as big issues like pan-Arabism versus nationalism and Islamism versus democracy. The Iran-Iraq War also introduced the Sunni versus Shiite element, with various radical movements unleashed by the success of the 1979 Iranian revolution. Add to these the disputes between those for or against a negotiated peace with Israel and Lebanon became the test case or the battleground for all these ideas, simply because they could not be discussed or resolved anywhere else.
Because of this, whatever happens in Lebanon is of concern to everyone else in the Middle East and the outcome of very localized conflicts and debates in the country will have an effect on the broader region. This is where the neglected issues are still alive. This is also where they can blow up and spread or fizzle out and be resolved locally. This explains why the Arab-Israeli conflict has all but disappeared from the rest of the Arab world but is still alive in Lebanon, which could erupt into a war with Israel at any moment. It is also why Iranian influence, through the control of the country by Hezbollah that started in the 1980s, has been gradually spreading in the region too.
My Iranian friends use the octopus as a way to describe the institutions of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps because it has tentacles in every country. In 1983, one of the tentacles blew up the US Marines barracks in Beirut. The Marines were in the country as part of a multinational force tasked with keeping the peace after the Israeli invasion of 1982 and the Sabra and Shatila massacre. The same tentacles, allied with Syria, took American and other Western hostages and released them in Damascus.
The US Reagan administration found this too costly and complicated and withdrew, followed by the European forces, eventually handing the country over to Syria, which, when it came to hostages, seemed to be able to resolve problems that were often of its own creation. Forty years after the bombings of the US Marines barracks and the US Embassy in Beirut, what was an IRGC problem in Lebanon has now spread to Palestine, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, and the US is still paying for the release of hostages in Tehran. The region has been unstable for more than half a century. It is high time for a new beginning and, for a comprehensive solution to be successful, it must start from Lebanon.
• Nadim Shehadi is a Lebanese economist.
Twitter: @Confusezeus

The American Deal of the Century in a Race Between Democratic Hochstein and Republican Kushner Today’s Focus: Ending the Lebanese-Israeli Conflict
Raghida Dergham/The National/September 03/2023
The Biden administration wants to secure a major strategic victory to bolster its presidential campaign. To this end, Amos Hochstein, the Special Presidential Coordinator for Global Infrastructure and Energy Security, has emerged as the Democratic counterpart to Jared Kushner, the former Republican presidential envoy. Recall Kushner's achievements in closing the "Deal of the Century," or the Abraham Accords between Arab nations and Israel during Donald Trump's presidency. Trump's election campaign is likely rooting for Hochstein's failure: While it does not oppose the delineation of land borders between Lebanon and Israel after Hochstein successfully brokered a historic agreement to demarcate the maritime borders between them, the campaign recognizes the exceptional significance of this regional breakthrough and its potential impact on the U.S. elections. Indeed, we are not merely discussing the resolution of a few square meters of disputed territory and carrying out land swaps. What we are talking about here is the potential end of the Lebanon-Israel conflict, achieved by securing Lebanon's independence from the path of negotiations that involved Syria. It's worth noting that Damascus had imposed what it termed the "twin-track" negotiations on Lebanon for decades, with the aim of preventing Lebanon from concluding its complex conflict with Israel before Syria resolved its own issues with Israel. This was intended to ensure that Lebanon remained a bargaining chip for Syria. However, today's circumstances have shifted towards a "first come, first served" approach. This shift is due to the Syrian government's diminished regional influence, its struggles to maintain control over its own territories, and the fact that the primary Arab player in regional and international affairs is not Syria but Saudi Arabia. The Biden administration is now actively engaging with Saudi Arabia, marking a sudden shift in strategy as Washington views Riyadh as the most viable path to engaging with Tehran.
Both Jared and Amos are intelligent men, and they are friends, according to what a spokesperson said about Hochstein. In truth, neither of the two men is an ordinary presidential envoy, being at one time senior members of the National Security Council and of the inner circle of their presidents. Hochstein and Kushner are competing, in one way or another, to prove their competence, influence, and ability to deliver in front of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as they both realize that the "bonanza," or the grand prize, lies in achieving peace and normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. But they also understand that the conditions set by Saudi Arabia are not easy to meet due to Israeli intransigence vis-à-vis the Palestinians and their national rights.
For the first time, Republicans and Democrats may not compete during the presidential campaign to appease Israel and shower it with gifts like a spoiled child. This does not mean that the organic relationship between the United States and Israel has ended, but it means that what rational policies require in the aftermath of the Ukrainian war and in the midst of Israeli divisions has forced Democrats and Republicans to think outside the box. The Middle East today is not as subject to Israeli priorities in Washington as it used to be. Washington has different economic and political calculations from its previous strategic calculations. It is a new era of geopolitics in the Middle East in the minds of decision-makers in the two ruling parties in America.
Amos Hochstein's visit to Lebanon may seem insignificant in the context of America’s standoff with Russia, NATO's globalization, China, and the emerging alliances. But in reality, his investment in land border demarcation following his success in maritime border demarcation holds important strategic returns for the United States, that go beyond the extraction of oil and gas necessary for Europe in times of scarcity imposed by the Ukrainian war.
The primary message that Hochstein conveyed to those he met with in Lebanon, including officials and non-governmental figures, is that the Biden administration is concerned about long-term stability and peace and is prepared to work on rectifying the irregularities in the Blue Line that separates the Lebanese-Israeli borders. However, the Blue Line is considered a withdrawal line, not a border line. Hochstein brought with him an American approach emphasizing conflict resolution in partnership with regional countries, rather than imposition of any agenda, as was the approach in the past.
The main message was that the Biden administration wants to leave a mark in conflict resolution and achieve things that seemed impossible in the recent past. According to an advisor to one key Lebanese leader, the Americans came with a different approach, indicating measures towards a qualitative leap, suggesting that the Israeli side is prepared to withdraw from all occupied Lebanese territories.
At this stage, the parties’ dossiers will be prepared before officially being presented. Yet negotiations on land borders will not be more challenging than negotiations on maritime borders, and they will not take 12 years to resolve. Unlike the issue of maritime borders that involved oil and gas interests, the issue of land borders has significant economic or geopolitical implications. There are 6 disputed points along the Blue Line, bearing in mind that UN-supervised negotiations between Lebanon and Israel resulted in the agreement of both parties on resolving 7 disputed points within one year. With the exception of the disagreement on point B1 in the Naqoura sector with an area of 500 square meters, and the Shebaa Farms, which fall under mandate of UNDOF between Syria and Israel, the other disputed areas are considered "minor," according to a Lebanese official directly involved in the negotiations, and they can be resolved through "land swaps."
Hochstein has gained a reputation for being a negotiator who excels in bargaining and engineering deals. He made a name for himself by achieving the demarcation of the Lebanese-Israeli maritime borders, and he wants to expand his legacy to include the demarcation of the land borders between Lebanon and Israel, and possibly later the borders between Syria and Israel. But his ambition is not limited to the Lebanese-Syrian-Israeli tripartite framework but extends to resolving a fundamental dispute that would greatly facilitate Saudi Arabia's normalization with Israel. This is where the "Democratic Deal of the Century" lies. The demarcation of maritime borders between Lebanon and Israel practically eliminated the logic of resistance and thus managed to restrain Hezbollah after it agreed to the deal with Iranian approval. Some argue that this is the most important achievement of the Biden administration in the Middle East, and replicating this success on the land border could become an electoral asset, with the selling point being peace between Israel and its Lebanese neighbor, and the neutralization of Hezbollah and the logic of resistance, all with Iran's consent.
The Islamic Republic of Iran wishes to contribute to the Democratic electoral campaign because it fears the return of former President Donald Trump to the White House, carrying the sword of sanctions and sternness with Tehran's men. Distrust between the two sides is mutual. The Trump administration did not trust the promises of the Iranian regime and will not show it lenience if it returns. It may resume its policy of maximum pressure to force the regime to abandon its ideology, which is incompatible with the recent signs of flexibility and adaptation shown by the Iranian government.
The common factor between the Republican and Democratic camps is the major importance they both assign to Saudi Arabia's regional and international role as framed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The difference lies in how this role is interpreted concerning Iran, not from the perspective of the Saudi-Iranian agreement brokered by China, as both parties acknowledge it and do not interfere in it, but in terms of Saudi Arabia's role in bridging US-Iranian relations.
The Trump camp intends to continue its crackdown against the Islamic Republic of Iran as long as the Revolutionary Guard remains responsible for formulating and implementing its foreign policies, both regionally and internationally, through direct intervention and militias and non-regular forces under its command operating inside countries like Lebanon, in violation of their sovereignty. The Trump camp does not seek nor want to normalize US relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran. It does not want to revive the nuclear agreement with Iran and does not accept its domestic behavior of suppressing uprisings, or its external behavior of exporting its revolutionary and authoritarian model.
The Biden camp sees the new Saudi-Iranian relationship as an avenue for reopening discussions on reviving the nuclear agreement, with Saudi efforts. This is ironic because during the Obama-Biden administration, the Democrats had made the decision to exclude Saudi Arabia and all Arab states from nuclear negotiations with Iran and had acquiesced to Iran's condition of excluding its regional behavior from the negotiations. Today, this camp wants to inform both Saudi Arabia and Iran that the Biden administration has pivoted from the Obama administration's approach by making a fundamental correction regarding the strategic partnership with the Arab Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, which Obama had ended in favor of rapprochement with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Reforming these relations is not limited to resetting the strategic relationship with the Arab Gulf states to its alliance status but also includes the Biden camp's need for Saudi Arabia, in addition to Qatar, Oman, and the UAE, to reset the relationship with Iran, which had been suspended during the nuclear negotiations. Iran understands this and is determined to assist the Biden administration in every way possible because its interests are best served by keeping this administration in power and preventing Trump's return to the White House.
Therefore, recent statements by Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah regarding the "sovereignty" of the Lebanese state and not interfering in the decisions of the people of the village of Ghajar could reflect an Iranian direction that aligns with the diplomacy of flexibility, openness, and assistance in finding solutions to regional problems. This new soft diplomacy is represented by the Iranian president and his foreign minister, with the silent consent of the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guard.
Hezbollah has shown a measure of goodwill regarding the demarcation of the land borders between Lebanon and Israel, and the Iranian message to the Biden administration is that Tehran is ready to facilitate the resolution of border disputes. Regardless of whether this is a gift to the Democratic Party for its election efforts, within the framework of Iran's positive diplomacy in Yemen and Bahrain, the Republican Party cannot object to its outcomes if it truly leads to resolving the conflict between Lebanon and Israel.
The United Arab Emirates' presidency of the United Nations Security Council this month contributed to securing the resolution to extend the mandate of UNIFIL forces in southern Lebanon. But its role went beyond facilitating the adoption of the resolution, to affirming the authority of the Lebanese state in working to end the Israeli occupation of Lebanese territories. If Israel agrees, this could lead to a new chapter in Arab-Israeli conflict resolution and further expansion of normalization with Israel.
The UAE has spearheaded efforts for reintegrating Syria into the Arab fold, alongside its pioneering steps towards normalization with Israel with the successful Abraham Accords, crafted during the Trump administration by Jared Kushner. Syria in turn could be placed on a path to resolving its conflict with Israel, if innovative approaches are followed regarding the issue of the Golan Heights, which was annexed by Israel despite international resolutions.
In the era of drones and new military technology, spaces like the Golan Heights or the Shebaa Farms no longer hold the strategic significance they once did. Syria was on the verge of signing a peace treaty with Israel two decades ago, but it was stalled due to the issue of Lake Tiberias. But the importance of that lake has since diminished due to climate change, and perhaps peace could have been achieved if decision-makers had considered the implications of climate change, drone technology, and modern warfare.
There is an opportunity for a fresh perspective on the matter. Regardless of whether it's the Democratic Party or the Republican Party leading efforts to resolve conflicts in the Middle East, the Iranian question remains at the forefront. Here, the historically conciliatory relationship between Iran and Israel raises many questions: What if this covert conciliation were to become part of an openly negotiated deal, in line with the aspirations of both Democrats and Republicans, under the banner of the "Deal of the Century"?
Just a question. Just an inquiry. Just an idea.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 04-05/2023
UN nuclear watchdog report says Iran slowing uranium enrichment
Associated Press/September 04/2023
Iran has slowed the pace at which it is enriching uranium to nearly weapons-grade levels, according to a report by the United Nations' nuclear watchdog seen by The Associated Press on Monday. That could be a sign Tehran is trying to ease tensions after years of strain between it and the U.S. The confidential report comes as Iran and the United States are negotiating a prisoner swap and the release of billions of dollars in Iranian assets frozen in South Korea. However, international inspectors also noted new challenges in trying to monitor Iran's program. In an effort to ensure Iran could not develop atomic weapons, world powers struck a deal with Tehran in 2015 under which it agreed to limit enrichment of uranium to levels necessary for nuclear power in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. U.N. inspectors were tasked with monitoring the program. Then-President Donald Trump unilaterally pulled the U.S. out of the accord in 2018, saying he would negotiate a stronger deal, but that didn't happen. Iran began breaking the terms a year later. The International Atomic Energy Agency said in its report that Iran has 121.6 kilograms (268 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60%. That means its stockpile of the fuel is growing at its slowest pace since 2021. A report in May put the stockpile at just over 114 kilograms (250 pounds). It had 87.5 kilograms (192 pounds) in February.
Uranium enriched at 60% purity is just a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%. Iran has long denied ever seeking nuclear weapons and continues to insist that its program is entirely for peaceful purposes, though the IAEA's director-general has warned Tehran has enough enriched uranium for "several" nuclear bombs if it chose to build them. Iran's mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment Monday. Tehran likely would still need months to build a weapon. U.S. intelligence agencies said in March that Iran "is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that would be necessary to produce a testable nuclear device." The IAEA, the West and other countries say Iran had a secret military nuclear program it abandoned in 2003. Overall, the IAEA report estimated Iran's total enriched uranium stockpile at 3,795.5 kilograms (8,367 pounds). That's a drop from the last IAEA report, which put the stockpile at 4,744.5 kilograms (10,459 pounds). The stockpile reportedly declined because Iran diluted some of its enriched uranium. U.S. President Joe Biden has said he'd be willing to re-enter a nuclear deal with Iran, but formal talks to try to find a roadmap to restart the deal collapsed in August 2022. In the time since, Oman and Qatar have mediated indirect talks between Iran and the U.S. that led to the current planned prisoner swap and asset release. Under that proposal, anywhere from $6 billion to $7 billion, depending on exchange rates, would be changed from South Korean won into euros. The cash represents money South Korea owed Iran — but had not yet paid — for oil purchased before the Trump administration imposed sanctions on such transactions in 2019. The U.S. maintains that, once in Qatar, the money will be held in restricted accounts and Iran will only be able to use it for humanitarian goods, such as medicine and food. Those transactions are currently allowed under American sanctions targeting the Islamic Republic over its nuclear program. In exchange, Iran would release five Iranian-American prisoners now under house arrest. The U.S. likely will release Iranian prisoners as well, though those details remain murky. If that deal goes through, it could improve the chances of overall talks on the nuclear deal resuming — though Biden already faces strident criticism from Republicans and others over the prisoner swap. While Iran has slowed enrichment, the IAEA reported other problems with trying to monitor its program. The report from the watchdog seen by the AP said Iran had denied visas for agency officials and affected their ability to work in other ways as well.
Iran has not acknowledged the visa denials. The IAEA also hasn't been able to access surveillance camera footage since February 2021 under Iranian restrictions, while the only recorded data since June 2022 has been from cameras at a workshop in the Iranian city of Isfahan. The watchdog also said that no progress has been made on its request that Iran explain the origin and current location of manmade uranium particles found at two locations that Tehran has failed to declare as potential nuclear sites.

Israel opens Bahrain embassy, three years after normalizing ties
Reuters/September 04, 2023
MANAMA: Israel officially opened its embassy in Bahrain on Monday, three years after both sides normalized ties. Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen attended an official ceremony for the opening of the diplomatic mission during a visit to Bahrain which included a delegation of businessmen and government officials. “The (Bahrain) foreign minister and I agreed that we should work together to increase the number of direct flights, the tourism, the trade volume, the investments,” Cohen said during the ceremony. Bahrain’s Foreign Minister Abdullatif Al-Zayani said the inauguration of the embassy “signifies our shared commitment to security and prosperity for all the peoples of our region.” The normalization deal between Bahrain and Israel was part of a series of agreements, known as the Abraham Accords, which were also signed with the United Arab Emirates, Morocco and Sudan.

Israel and Bahrain agree to boost trade ties
Associated Press/September 04/2023
Israel's foreign minister agreed Monday with his Bahraini counterpart to boost trade relations, during his first visit to one of the two Gulf Arab states to establish ties with Israel. "The foreign minister and I agreed that we should work together to increase the number of direct flights, the tourism, the trade volume, the investment," Eli Cohen said during a ceremony to inaugurate Israel's new embassy. The embassy in the capital Manama will replace the first embassy Israel opened in 2021, a year after it established diplomatic relations with Bahrain as part of the U.S.-brokered Abraham Accords. Under the accords, Israel also established ties with the United Arab Emirates and Morocco. Monday's ceremony was attended by Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif Al Zayani, who said the event signified a "shared commitment to strengthening and cultivating bilateral relations". "As we build into deeper diplomatic endeavours and engage in bilateral cooperation across various sectors, the establishment of this new embassy assumes a pivotal role in our collaboration," he told reporters. Cohen arrived in Bahrain on Sunday, accompanied by a business delegation of more than 30 companies working in high-tech, logistics and real estate. Earlier on Monday, he met Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al-Khalifa and discussed "the importance of advancing a free trade agreement and projects to connect youths in Israel and Bahrain", Cohen posted on X, formerly Twitter. "We look forward to expanding the circle of peace and normalisation to other states in the area," he said. Despite now having steady ties with Israel, Bahrain and the UAE have joined other Gulf Arab states in issuing a series of condemnations against it this year. The storming of the Al Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem and raids by Israeli forces on Nablus and the Jenin Palestinian refugee camp in the occupied West Bank were among Israeli moves that sparked a Gulf outcry. However, Cohen's trip coincides with growing speculation about an impending normalisation deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which is not a signatory to the Abraham Accords. Riyadh and Washington have held talks on Saudi conditions for progress on normalisation with Israel, according to people briefed on the meetings. "There are more Arab and Muslim countries that have shown interest in taking a step forward in joining the peace circle," Cohen told a press conference in Manama, without naming them. In Bahrain, Cohen also visited the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet base where he discussed maritime security cooperation, according to a statement by U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT). The visit "underscores our expanding partnership with Israel", NAVCENT commander Vice-Admiral Brad Cooper was quoted as saying.

Netanyahu says wants to deport Eritrean migrants involved in violent clashes
Associated Press/September 04/2023
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he wants Eritrean migrants involved in a violent clash in Tel Aviv to be deported immediately and has ordered a plan to remove all of the country's African migrants. The remarks came a day after bloody protests by rival groups of Eritreans in south Tel Aviv left dozens of people injured. Eritreans, supporters and opponents of Eritrea's government, faced off with construction lumber, pieces of metal and rocks, smashing shop windows and police cars. Israeli police in riot gear shot tear gas, stun grenades and live rounds while officers on horseback tried to control the protesters. The violence on Saturday returned to the fore the issue of migrants, which has long divided Israel. Its resurgence comes as Israel is torn over Netanyahu's judicial overhaul plan, and supporters cite the migrant issue as a reason why the courts should be reined in, saying they have stood in the way of pushing the migrants out. "We want harsh measures against the rioters, including the immediate deportation of those who took part," Netanyahu said in a special ministerial meeting called to deal with the aftermath of the violence. He requested that the ministers present him with plans "for the removal of all the other illegal infiltrators," and noted in his remarks that the Supreme Court struck down some measures meant to coerce the migrants to leave. Under international law, Israel cannot forcibly send migrants back to a country where their life or liberty may be at risk. Ahead of an official visit to Cyprus, Netanyahu said the ministerial team was seeking to deport 1,000 supporters of the Eritrean government who were involved in Saturday's violence. "They have no claim to refugee status. They support this regime," Netanyahu said. "If they support the regime so much, they would do well to return to their country of origin." About 25,000 African migrants live in Israel, mainly from Sudan and Eritrea, who say they fled conflict or repression. Israel recognizes very few as asylum seekers, seeing them overwhelmingly as economic migrants, and says it has no legal obligation to keep them. The country has tried a variety of tactics to force them out, including sending some to a remote prison, holding part of their wages until they agree to leave the country or offering cash payments to those who agree to move to another country, somewhere in Africa. Critics accuse the government of trying to coerce the migrants into leaving. Migrants' supporters say Israel, a country founded upon the ashes of the Holocaust and built up by Jewish refugees, should welcome those seeking asylum. Opponents claim migrants have brought crime to the low-income southern Tel Aviv neighborhoods where they have settled. On Sunday, Israel's far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, visited the site of the unrest, voicing his support for the police and calling for those who broke the law to be placed in detention until they are deported. "They don't need to be here. It's not their place," he said.
Some people heckled Ben-Gvir as he walked with a police escort, telling him to "go home." Saturday's clashes came as Eritrean government supporters marked the 30th anniversary of the current ruler's rise to power, an event held near the Eritrean embassy in south Tel Aviv. Eritrea has one of the world's worst human rights records and migrants in Israel and elsewhere say they fear death if they were to return. Critics see Netanyahu's judicial overhaul plan as a power grab meant to weaken the courts and limit judicial oversight on government decisions and legislation. Supporters say it is meant to restore power to elected legislators and rein in what they say is an interventionist and liberal-leaning justice system.
Similar protests involving rival Eritrean groups have been also popping up in other countries. On Saturday, Norway's second-largest city Bergen, witnessed clashes between supporters and opponents of the Eritrean government during a rally commemorating the country's independence day. Norwegian authorities said government opponents threw bottles and stones at rally participants. Large numbers of police forces with shields and visors fanned out on the streets, and parts of Bergen's city center were cordoned off because of the violence. Over 100 people were involved in the clashes and at least three people were detained, while one person was injured, Norwegian authorities said. In early August, Swedish media reported that about 1,000 protesters stormed an Eritrean festival in Stockholm, the capital, setting booths and cars on fire and using rocks and sticks as weapons, leaving at least 52 people injured and more than 100 people detained. Eritera's President Isaias Afwerki, 77, has been in power since 1993 after the country won independence from Ethiopia following a long guerrilla war. There have been no elections and no free media, and exit visas are required for Eritreans to leave the country. Many young people are forced into military service with no end date, human rights groups and United Nations experts say.

Israel pitches fiber optic cable idea to link Asia and the Middle East to Europe
Associated Press/September 04/2023
Israel's prime minister has floated the idea of building infrastructure projects such as a fiber optic cable linking countries in Asia and the Arabian Peninsula with Europe through Israel and Cyprus. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he's "quite confident" such an infrastructure "corridor" linking Asia to Europe through Israel and Cyprus is feasible. He said such projects could happen if Israel normalizes relations with other countries in the region. The 2020 U.S.-brokered Abraham Accords normalized relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, and the Biden administration is trying to establish official ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia. "An example and the most obvious one is a fiber optic connection. That's the shortest route. It's the safest route. It's the most economic route," Netanyahu said after talks with Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides. The Israeli leader's pitch is itself an extension of proposed energy links with Cyprus and Greece as part of growing collaboration on energy in the wake of discoveries of significant natural gas deposits in the economic zones of both Israel and Cyprus. Netanyahu repeated that he and Christodoulides are looking to follow through on plans for a 2,000-megawatt undersea electricity cable known as the EurAsia Interconnector connecting Israel with Cyprus and Greece that aims to act as an energy supply back-up for both Israel and Cyprus. "You want to be connected to other sources of power that can allow a more optimal use of power or give you power when there is a failure in your own country," Netanyahu said. "That is something that we're discussing seriously and we hope to achieve." Another energy link involves a Cypriot proposal to build a pipeline that would convey offshore natural gas from both Israel and Cyprus to the east Mediterranean island nation where it would be fuel for electricity generators or potentially be liquefied for export by ship.Christodoulides said given Europe's need for energy diversification in light of Russia's war in Ukraine, Cyprus and Israel are looking to developing "a reliable energy corridor" linking the East Mediterranean basin to Europe through projects including gas pipelines and liquefied natural gas (LNG) processing plants. Netanyahu said his government fully backs a European decision to create a regional fire fighting hub in Cyprus from which aircraft and other technology could be dispatched to help put out fires in neighboring countries. "The climate isn't going to get cooler. It's going to get hotter. And with, you know, with the heating up of our region and the globe, firefighting becomes a really important thing. We can I think we can do it better together," the Israeli leader said. Talks between Christodoulides and Netanyahu precede a trilateral meeting with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis on Monday. Since 2016 such meetings between the leaders of the three countries have become a staple of what they said are burgeoning ties that Netanyahu described as "a deep friendship, both personal, but also between our nations" that is "real" and "long overdue."

Protesters in southern Syria smash statue as they mark 2015 assassination of anti-government leader
AP/September 04, 2023
BEIRUT: Hundreds of angry protesters in southern Syria smashed the statue of Syria’s late president on Monday as they they marked the 2015 assassination of a prominent anti-government Druze leader. The protests in the province of Sweida, where the Druze community represents the majority of the population, have entered their third week. The demonstrations were initially driven by surging inflation and the war-torn country’s spiraling economy but quickly shifted focus, with marchers calling for the fall of President Bashar Assad’s government. Monday’s protest took place in the provincial capital, also called Sweida, where angry men and woman called for the downfall of Assad’s government. Some smashed the statue of Assad’s late father and predecessor, Hafez Assad. Several demonstrators marched up to the building of the local branch of the social security and tore down a giant poster of Bashar Assad, according to videos circulated on social media and opposition activists. Monday marked the eighth anniversary of the assassination of cleric Sheik Wahid Balous, a prominent critic of Assad. He had called on the youth in Sweida to refuse to serve in the military. Balous, a strong supporter of rebels trying to topple Assad, died in one of two bomb explosions on Sept. 4, 2015, that also also killed 25 others. Some have blamed the government for the killing. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor, said the protesters initially went into the Swedia municipality building and removed Hafez Assad’s statue from the yard, carried it to a nearby street and smashed it there. Some demonstrators angrily kicked chunks of the statue as it lay on the ground. Sweida province has largely stayed out of the fighting in Syria’s 12-year civil war that has killed half a million people, wounded hundreds of thousands and left parts of the country destroyed. The conflict has displaced half the country’s prewar population of 23 million, including more than 5 million who are refugees outside the country. A 10th century offshoot of Shiite Islam, the Druze make up about 5 percent of Syria’s prewar population, and are split between supporters and opponents of President Bashar Assad. In late August, angry protesters raided the local offices of the ruling Baath party in Sweida while others blocked a highway that links the province with the capital of Damascus.

Kurdish-led forces push to quell days of unrest in east Syria
Agence France Presse/September 04/2023
Kurdish-led forces were sending reinforcements to eastern Syria's Deir Ezzor province on Monday amid days of clashes with Arab fighters loyal to a detained local official, an AFP correspondent said. Fighting erupted after the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) detained Ahmad al-Khabil, head of the Deir Ezzor Military Council, on August 27. The violence in several towns and villages in Kurdish-controlled areas of Deir Ezzor province has killed 71 people, mostly fighters but also nine civilians. SDF spokesman Farhad Shami told AFP his forces were trying to "settle" the situation in Dhiban, the last town where fighters loyal to Khabil were concentrated. "We urged civilians to leave," Shami said, adding that the situation was heading towards "a settlement and the end of tensions" after other villages where clashes took place were searched in recent days. The AFP correspondent saw Kurdish and Arab fighters from the SDF heading on trucks towards Dhiban. Arab-majority Deir Ezzor province, a resource-rich region which borders Iraq, is bisected by the Euphrates river and is home to dozens of local tribal communities, some of whose fighters joined the SDF in its battle against the Islamic State jihadist group (IS). Control of the province is split between the SDF to the east of the Euphrates, and Iran-backed Syrian government forces and their proxies to the west. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a war monitor, said dozens of fighters who follow a sheikh from a prominent tribe were still positioned in Dhiban, adding that residents were fleeing the area. The tribes are divided in their loyalties, added the Britain-based Observatory, which has a vast network of sources inside Syria. The SDF has denied any dispute with Arab tribes in the region, saying the clashes have mostly involved "elements of the regime and some beneficiaries" of Khabil, whom they accuse of drug trafficking and communicating with the Syrian government. It has urged local residents "not to be drawn into the strife". A semi-autonomous Kurdish administration controls areas in north and northeast Syria through local civilian and military councils in an effort to stave off Arab discontent. In northern Syria on Monday, Turkey-backed fighters who said they were from Arab tribes attacked SDF positions in support of the local fighters in Deir Ezzor. With U.S. backing, the SDF spearheaded the offensive that defeated IS's self-declared caliphate in Syria in 2019. The U.S. embassy in Syria, which is based outside the country, said Sunday that two senior officials had met with the SDF, Kurdish authorities and tribal leaders from Deir Ezzor, urging de-escalation "as soon as possible".

Erdogan meets Putin, aims to revive wartime grain deal
Associated Press/September 04/2023
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday sought to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to revive an agreement that allowed Ukraine to export grain and other commodities from three Black Sea ports despite the war with Russia.
Putin in July refused to extend the agreement, which was brokered by Turkey and the United Nations a year earlier and was seen as vital for global food supplies, especially in Africa, the Middle East and Asia. Ukraine and Russia are major suppliers of wheat, barley, sunflower oil and other goods that developing nations rely on. Erdogan said the grain deal was the headline issue at the daylong talks between the two leaders in Russia's Black Sea resort of Sochi, where the Russian president has a residence. "Everyone is looking at the grain corridor issue," Erdogan said in opening remarks. Putin acknowledged that "issues related to the Ukraine crisis" would be discussed between them. "I know that you intend to raise questions about the grain deal. We're open to negotiations on that subject," he told Erdogan, repeating what has been the Kremlin's official position on international efforts to resurrect the agreement.
Russia broke off the deal, complaining that a parallel deal promising to remove obstacles to Russian exports of food and fertilizer hadn't been honored. It said restrictions on shipping and insurance hampered its agricultural trade even though it has shipped record amounts of wheat since last year. A lot is riding on the talks for the world food supply. "I believe that the message we will give after our meeting will constitute an important step for the world, especially for the underdeveloped African countries," Erdogan said. Since Putin withdrew from the grain initiative, Erdogan has repeatedly pledged to renew arrangements that helped avoid a food crisis in parts of Africa, the Middle East and Asia. The meeting took place against a backdrop of Ukraine's recent counteroffensive against the Kremlin's invasion forces. In the latest development, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Sunday that Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov would be replaced this week. The job requires "new approaches," Zelenskyy said, without elaborating. Reznikov on Monday published a photo of his resignation letter.
Analysts expect tough negotiations in Sochi. "My gut feeling is that Putin recognizes the leverage he has by using food as an economic weapon, and thus will fight for all he can get in terms of concessions on his wish-list," said Tim Benton, a food security expert at the Chatham House think tank. Those may include Russia's grains, or fertilizer exports, or wider issues, he said. Data from the Joint Coordination Center in Istanbul, which organized the Ukraine shipments, shows that 57% of the grain from Ukraine went to developing nations, with the top destination being China, which received nearly a quarter of the food. Russia has repeatedly attacked the Odesa region, Ukraine's main Black Sea port area. On Monday, the Ukrainian air force said it intercepted 23 of 32 drones that targeted the Odea and Dnipropetrovsk regions but did not specify damage caused by the drones that got through.
The Turkish president has maintained close ties with Putin during the 18-month war in Ukraine. Turkey hasn't joined Western sanctions against Russia following its invasion, emerging as a main trading partner and logistical hub for Russia's overseas trade.
Opening the talks, Putin mentioned various areas of bilateral cooperation, such as a proposed Russian gas hub in Turkey and the construction of the first nuclear power plant there, in which Moscow is actively involved. NATO member Turkey, however, has also supported Ukraine, sending arms, meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and backing Kyiv's bid to join NATO. Erdogan angered Moscow in July when he allowed five Ukrainian commanders to return home. The soldiers had been captured by Russia and handed over to Turkey on condition they remained there for the duration of the war. Putin and Erdogan — authoritarian leaders who have both been in power for more than two decades — are said to have a close rapport, fostered in the wake of a failed coup against Erdogan in 2016 when Putin was the first major leader to offer his support. The Sochi summit follows talks between the Russian and Turkish foreign ministers on Thursday, during which Russia handed over a list of actions that the West would have to take in order for Ukraine's Black Sea exports to resume. Erdogan has indicated sympathy with Putin's position. In July, he said Putin had "certain expectations from Western countries" over the Black Sea deal and that it was "crucial for these countries to take action in this regard." U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres recently sent Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov "concrete proposals" aimed at getting Russian exports to global markets and allowing the resumption of the Black Sea initiative. But Lavrov said Moscow wasn't satisfied with the letter. Describing Turkey's "intense" efforts to revive the agreement, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said it was a "process that tries to better understand Russia's position and requests, and to meet them."

Kyiv police report fresh bomb threat in schools, colleges
Agence France Presse/September 04/2023
Kyiv officials on Monday said there had been a fresh bomb threat against all the schools and colleges in the Ukrainian capital after a similar warning last week. At the start of this academic year, 240,000 children in Kyiv have chosen to study in school instead of remotely, according to the city hall. "Kyiv police again received a report of a bomb threat in all schools and colleges in Kyiv," the city's military administration said on social media. Police are taking necessary measures, they said, telling the public to keep calm. Schools and police will decide whether to evacuate children and teachers.
The first day back at school in Kyiv on Friday was also marred by a bomb threat. "After careful verification, this information was not confirmed," the city's military administration said.

Jordan’s King Abdullah receives Japanese FM
Arab News/September 04, 2023
AMMAN: Jordan’s King Abdullah on Monday received Japan’s Foreign Minister Hayashi Yoshimasa, Jordan News Agency reported.  Crown Prince Hussein bin Abdullah also attended the meeting, which focused on strengthening economic, investment, trade and defense cooperation. They also discussed the outcomes of the king’s April visit to Japan and how to build on them. King Abdullah thanked Hayashi for Japan’s assistance to Jordan. He cited the memorandum of understanding signed between the two countries in economy and energy during Hayashi’s visit. He also praised Japan’s support for Syrian refugees and host communities, as well as for Palestinian refugees through the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees. The meeting covered the refugee crisis and its impact on host communities; the importance of maintaining international support; and enabling the safe and voluntary return of refugees. The most recent regional and international developments, particularly the Palestinian cause, were also on the agenda. Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, Director of the king’s office Jafar Hassan, and Japanese Ambassador to Jordan Jiro Okuyama also attended the meeting. Hayashi’s visit comes a year before the 70th anniversary of diplomatic ties being established between the two countries. He later met Jordanian Prime Minister Bisher Khasawneh to review the countries’ strategic partnership. Meanwhile, Safadi held discussions with Ibrahim Jazi, minister of state for prime ministry affairs, and Zeina Toukan, minister of planning and international cooperation. Khasawneh praised Sunday’s announcement of a $102.8 million Japanese loan to support Jordan’s electricity sector. Furthermore, a $6.4 million grant authorized by the Japan International Cooperation Agency will help to enhance the operational capacity of Jordan’s energy system.  Regarding the Palestinian cause, Khasawneh emphasized the importance of a comprehensive solution. He said this should be a two-state solution involving a sovereign Palestinian state based on pre-June 4, 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital.  He also stressed the need to preserve Jerusalem’s historic status and sanctities, a responsibility entrusted to King Abdullah under the Hashemite custodianship. Hayashi highlighted the appeal of Jordan’s investment prospects to Japanese firms, saying the Jordanian-Japanese Business Forum in Amman in July unveiled cooperative opportunities. Hayashi expressed his eagerness to contribute to the third Arab-Japanese political dialogue in Cairo on Tuesday, and the inaugural ministerial meeting of Jordan, Egypt and Japan later this month.

China's Xi to skip G20 summit in India amid soured bilateral relations
Associated Press/September 04/2023
Chinese President Xi Jinping is apparently skipping this week's Group of 20 summit in India as bilateral relations remain icy. Instead, Premier Li Qiang will represent China at the Sept. 9-10 gathering, the Foreign Ministry said Monday in a one sentence notice on its website. Relations between China and India have grown frosty over their disputed border, and three years ago the tensions resulted in a clash in the Ladakh region that killed 20 Indian and four soldiers. It turned into a long-running standoff in the rugged mountainous area, where each side has stationed tens of thousands of military personnel backed by artillery, tanks and fighter jets. Frictions have also risen over trade and India's growing strategic ties with China's main rival the United States. Both India and China have expelled the other's journalists. India recently overtook China as the world's most populous nation and the two are rivals in technology, space exploration and global trade. Asked why Xi would not be attending the summit, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning declined to answer. "The G20 is a major forum for international economic cooperation. China has always attached great importance to and actively participated in relevant activities," Mao told reporters at a daily briefing. "Premier Li Qiang will elaborate on China's views and propositions on G20 cooperation, promote the G20 to strengthen solidarity and cooperation and work together to address global economic and development challenges," she said. She said China is ready to work with all parties "to jointly promote the success of the G20" summit and "make positive contributions to promoting the stable recovery of the world economy and promoting sustainable development. Chinese and Indian military commanders met just last month and pledged to "maintain the peace and tranquility" along their disputed border, in an apparent effort by the sides to stabilize the situation. The Line of Actual Control separates Chinese- and Indian-held territories from Ladakh in the west to India's eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, which China claims in its entirety. India and China fought a war over their border in 1962. As its name suggests, the line divides the areas of physical control rather than territorial claims. According to India, the de facto border is 3,488 kilometers (2,167 miles) long, but China promotes a considerably shorter figure. In all, China claims some 90,000 square kilometers (35,000 square miles) of territory in India's northeast, including Arunachal Pradesh with its mainly Buddhist population. India says China occupies 38,000 square kilometers (15,000 square miles) of its territory in the Aksai Chin Plateau, which India considers part of Ladakh, where the current faceoff is happening. China, in the meantime, began cementing relations with India's archrival Pakistan and backing it on the issue of disputed Kashmir. Firefights broke out again in 1967 and 1975, leading to more deaths on both sides. They've since adopted protocols, including an agreement not to use firearms, but those protocols have fractured. Other than the potential effects on China-India relations, Xi's absence at the summit will also eliminate the possibility of an interaction with U.S. President Joe Biden. China-U.S. relations remain at a historic low despite recent visits by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other officials to Beijing. Xi has accumulated more power at home than any Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, and has adopted an increasingly aggressive approach to what he views as China's territorial interests in the South China Sea and toward self-governing Taiwan, which China threatens to annex by force if necessary. At the same time, China has struggled to recover economically from the hard-line policies it took to control COVID-19. Foreign businesses also have complained of an increasingly difficult environment in which to invest in and trade with the country. Xi will not be the only foreign head of state absent from the summit. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who faces war crimes charges over Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will also be skipping the summit, although he does plan to visit close partner China next month.

Gabon's military leader sworn in as head of state after president ousting
Associated Press/September 04/2023
Gabon 's new military leader was sworn in as the head of state Monday less than a week after ousting the president whose family had ruled the Central African nation for more than five decades. Gen. Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, took the oath in the presidential palace in front of a packed, boisterous room of government officials, military and local leaders in Gabon's capital, Libreville. Oligui is a cousin of the ousted President Ali Bongo Ondimba, served as a bodyguard to his late father and is head of the republican guard, an elite military unit. Speaking to applause and standing ovations Monday, Oligui said the military had seized power without bloodshed and promised to return power to the people by organizing free, transparent and credible elections. "With the new government, made up of experienced people, we're going to give everyone a chance to hope," he said.
The mutinous soldiers who toppled Bongo last week said he risked leading the country into chaos and they then "unanimously" designated Oligui president of the transitional committee. Bongo, who had been president for 14 years, was ousted hours after being declared the winner of a vote that was widely seen as rife with irregularities and lacking transparency. The speedy swearing-in of Oligui will create perceptions of legitimacy and consolidate his power to deter potential opponents from challenging his rule, said Maja Bovcon, senior analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, a risk assessment firm.
"It is also likely intended as a means to restore investor confidence by conveying the message that he will not waste time in returning to business-as-usual and democratic rules," she said. However, the fact that he plans to rewrite the constitution and electoral code means that the transition period will likely take months, if not years. Bongo had served two terms since coming to power in 2009 after the death of his father, who ruled the country for 41 years, and there was widespread discontent with his family's reign. Another group of mutinous soldiers attempted a coup in 2019 but was quickly overpowered. Nine members of the Bongo family, meanwhile, are under investigation in France, and some face preliminary charges of embezzlement, money laundering and other forms of corruption, according to Sherpa, a French NGO dedicated to accountability. Investigators have linked the family to more than $92 million in properties in France, including two villas in Nice, the group says. The idea of a long transition isn't something that appeared to bother Gabonese who attended the inauguration Thursday. "We are turning the page of 55 years of an oligarchy. For Gabon it is a new start, the end of a one political party governance without real benefits for the Gabonese people," said Desire Ename publisher for a local media outlet. It would be acceptable for the junta to transition within three years, he said. Gabon's opposition candidate, Albert Ondo Ossa, wouldn't comment on the inauguration but told The Associated Press last week that the government needed to return to constitutional rule and he didn't consider the president's ousting to be a coup but rather a "palace revolution" in order to continue the Bongo's family's reign. The former French colony is a member of OPEC, but its oil wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few — and nearly 40% of Gabonese aged 15 to 24 were out of work in 2020, according to the World Bank. Its oil export revenue was $6 billion in 2022, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

UK appoints new HM Trade Commissioner to drive trade and investment relationship in the Middle East and Pakistan
NNA/September 04/2023
The UK Government has appointed Oliver Christian as His Majesty’s Trade Commissioner for the Middle East and Pakistan and His Majesty’s Consul General to Dubai, succeeding Simon Penney. Oliver will lead the UK Government’s Department for Business and Trade in the region, working in partnership with governments and businesses to deliver economic growth at home and abroad. In 2022, the UK’s bilateral trade between the UK and the Middle East and Pakistan (MEaP) reached an all-time high of £61.3bn, with bilateral trade between the UK and Lebanon standing at £632 million.
Prior to joining the Department for Business and Trade, Oliver was Head of the Prime Minister's Business Unit in Downing Street, having served four prime ministers from 2019 to 2023. Oliver has been responsible for maintaining a trusted link between the Prime Minister, Whitehall and the boardrooms of UK and international businesses and investors. He oversaw over £78bn of investment and export deals, establishing the UK Global Investment Summit and the creation of the Office for Investment during his tenure in Downing Street. Business and Trade Secretary, Kemi Badenoch, said: “Our network of HMTCs bang the drum for Britain across the world, promoting UK trade, investment, and export finance. “I am delighted to welcome Oliver to this role and am confident he will build on our outstanding track record on trade in the Middle East and Pakistan, expanding opportunities for British businesses in one of the world’s fastest growing markets.”HM Trade Commissioner for the Middle East and Pakistan, Oliver Christian, said: “It is an honour to be appointed as His Majesty’s Trade Commissioner for the Middle East and Pakistan and HM Consul General for Dubai. We have such strong trade and investment relationships within the region, and there is more we can do to ensure the UK continues to be a partner of choice, tapping the huge commercial potential its economies have to offer.  “I look forward to leading the UK Government’s excellent commercial network for the region; supporting UK business and investors to strengthen our commercial relationships, create jobs, innovate and drive economic growth.  “It has been a privilege to lead the Prime Minister’s Business Unit in Downing Street for over four years, working with so many dedicated public servants, business leaders and investors." — UK Embassy Lebanon

Jordan: Army shoots down drug-laden drone at eastern borders
Petra/September 04/2023 
The Eastern Military Zone shot down a drone carrying narcotics on Monday, trespassing from Syrian territory. The drone, laden with crystal meth, fell on Jordanian land and was confiscated by the Anti-Narcotics Department in coordination with border guards, according to a source at the Jordan Armed Forces- Arab Army (JAF). The source emphasized that the JAF will respond with force and firmness to any threat on the border fronts and attempt to undermine and destabilize the security of the homeland and terrorize its citizens.--

Oil steady amid OPEC+ supply cut expectations
Reuters/September 04/2023 
Oil prices were stable on Monday, amid expectations that major producers would keep supplies tight, as hopes grew for the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged to avoid dampening the U.S. economy.
Brent crude futures for November traded down 3 cents at $88.52 a barrel by 0648 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) October futures were unchanged at $85.55 a barrel. Both contracts ended last week at their highest in more than half a year, after two previous weeks of losses.
"Crude oil prices have been primarily driven by the anticipation of additional supply cuts from major oil-producing nations, Russia and Saudi Arabia," said Sugandha Sachdeva, executive vice president and chief strategist at Acme Investment Advisors.
Sachdeva added, however, that the steady increase in U.S. oil production could limit further significant gains in price. Russia had agreed with partners in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on the parameters for continued export cuts Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday. An official announcement detailing the planned cuts is expected this week. Russia has already said it will cut exports by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September, following a 500,000-bpd cut in August. Saudi Arabia is also expected to roll over a voluntary 1-million-bpd cut into October. Speaking on Monday at the APPEC conference in Singapore, Vitol's chief executive Russell Hardy said the global crude market should become less tight in the next six to eight weeks because of refinery maintenance, but supplies of sour crude, with higher sulphur content, will stay tight. "Because of the OPEC+ cuts, there's not sufficient supply (of sour crude) for all these complex refineries in India, Kuwait, Jizan, Oman and China," Hardy said. In the U.S., job growth gained momentum in August, but the unemployment rate climbed to 3.8% and wage gains moderated, suggesting that labour market conditions were cooling and cementing expectations that the Federal Reserve will not put a further dampener on the economy by raising interest rates this month. In China, manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in August, data from Caixin's manufacturing PMI survey indicated, reducing some of the pessimism about the economic health of the world's largest oil importer. Beijing's economic support measures last week, such as deposit rate cuts at some of the largest state-owned banks and an easing of borrowing rules for home buyers, have also supported prices. However, investors continue to await more substantial moves to prop up the embattled property sector, one of the main drags on the Chinese economy since it emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic.--

Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 04-05/2023
India: The Land of Deprived Childhood
Jagdish N. Singh/Gatestone Institute./September 04, 2023
A large number of Indian children... are still subjected to bonded labour and forced employment. India today has more than 33 million children under the age of 18 in work requiring hard labour.
India's agriculture sector accounts for the majority (70%) of employed children. Child labour, regrettably, is used in almost all of the informal sectors of the Indian economy, including coal mining, and the diamond, fireworks, silk and carpet industries.
A 2003 Human Rights Watch report claims that children as young as five work for up to 12 hours a day, six to seven days a week, in the silk industry.
Official estimates for children working as domestic labourers and in restaurants is more than 2.5 million; some NGOs estimate the figure to be around 20 million.
As of September 2022, the US Department of Labor lists India in its "List of Goods Produced by Child Labor of Forced Labor," with 25 types of goods produced by child labour.
The main reasons for child labour, clearly, are poverty, illiteracy and malnutrition. Out of India's 217 million children, 49.9% are poor. Children in this category have little choice but to join the labour force.
A large number of Indian children are still subjected to bonded labour and forced employment. India today has more than 33 million children in work requiring hard labour. Pictured: Children work at a construction project in front of Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium on January 30, 2010 in New Delhi, India. (Photo by Daniel Berehulak/Getty Images)
The welfare of children has long been a concern in India. Aware of this need, the founding fathers of independent India in 1949 wrote a Constitution that prohibits employing children under the age of 14 in factories and other hazardous work (Article 24).
India's Parliament has also tried to safeguard children's rights by passing legislation . The Child and Adolescent Labour (Prohibition and Regulation) Act of 1986 makes employing a child a criminal offence.[1] Parliament has also enacted other laws to prohibit, identify and prosecute child labour.
To stop children from being forced to join the labour force, India's Constitution (Article 15- 3) states that "Nothing in this article shall prevent the State from making any special provision for women and children." Article 21A says that "the State shall provide free and compulsory education to children from the age of six to fourteen years." Article 39, clauses (e) and (f) state:
"The State shall, in particular, direct its policy towards securing... that the tender age of children are not abused and that citizens are not forced by economic necessity to enter avocations unsuited to their age or strength... that children are given opportunities and facilities to develop in a healthy manner and in conditions of freedom and dignity and that childhood and youth are protected against exploitation and against moral and material abandonment."
India's Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education Act (2009) mandates free and compulsory education to children aged 6 to 14 years, and that 25% of the seats in private schools shall be for children from groups in which the children are disadvantaged or physically challenged. India's National Policy on Child Labour (1987) adopted a gradual and sequential approach, focusing on the rehabilitation of children working in hazardous occupations.
A large number of Indian children, however, are still subjected to bonded labour and forced employment. India today has more than 33 million children under the age of 18 in work requiring hard labour. According to India's 2011 national census, the total number of child labourers, aged 5–14, is 10.1 million out of a total child population in that age group of 259.64 million. According to an unofficial estimate, there are close to 40 million children engaged in labour.
India's agriculture sector accounts for the majority (70%) of employed children. Child labour, regrettably, is used in almost all of the informal sectors of the Indian economy, including coal mining, and the diamond, fireworks, silk and carpet industries.
A 2003 Human Rights Watch report claims that children as young as five work for up to 12 hours a day, six to seven days a week, in the silk industry.
Official estimates for children working as domestic labourers and in restaurants is more than 2.5 million; some NGOs estimate the figure to be around 20 million.
The number of child workers declined from 11 million to 8 million between the 2001 and 2011 censuses of India. During the same period, however, the number of children working in urban settings rose from 1.3 million to 2 million.
As of September 2022, the US Department of Labor lists India in its "List of Goods Produced by Child Labor of Forced Labor," with 25 types of goods produced by child labour.
As part of the Indian government's agenda for development under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it plans to pay special attention to the need to totally end child labour. To achieve this, the Modi government needs to see to it that all laws and regulations against child labour are actually enforced. India's Supreme Court has given directives from time to time against breaching the country's child labour laws.[2] The government seriously needs to honour all these judicial directives.
More importantly, the government could work with various non-governmental organizations[3] to combat child labour. The main reasons for child labour, clearly, are poverty, illiteracy and malnutrition. Out of India's 217 million children, 49.9% are poor. Children in this category have little choice but to join the labour force.
Is it possible for the government to invest more in advanced agricultural techniques to relieve families of the need to have more children to help with farming?
Little has happened regarding early childhood care and education. The framework of India's child protection is largely urban with a limited reach in rural areas; out of every 100 children in India, only 32 finish school education.
There is a near consensus in modern times that pregnancy and infancy are important periods for the formation of a child's brain, fundamental cognitive and interpersonal skills; higher cognitive functions attain their peak by the age of three. But the government continues to depend for the care and educational requirements of its 0-3-year-olds on neighbourhood female child-care workers; sadly, there is no system to take care of babies of poor families or of mothers who go to work for a daily wage.
Although India has one of the world's largest social welfare programs, and although the World Bank has assisted with $400 million for India's social welfare needs, many of the poor still lack safety net coverage. Perhaps a closer look might to be taken at what can be done to benefit India and alleviate this situation.
Jagdish N. Singh is a senior journalist based in New Delhi.
Notes & References
[1] The Child and Adolescent Labour (Prohibition and Regulation) Act of 1986 (amended in 2012) defines a "Child" as a person below the age of 14. The Act prohibits employment of a child in any employment, including as a domestic helper. It makes employing a child for any work a cognizable criminal offence. The Act defines children between age of 14 and 18 as "adolescent" and allows their employment except in the listed hazardous occupation and processes which include mining, inflammable substance and explosives related work and any other hazardous process as per the Factories Act, 1948.
[2] In the case of People's Union for Democratic Rights v. Union of India, the Supreme Court observed that it was a breach of Article 24 of the Constitution to employ children below the age of 14 in construction work. The court prohibited violation of Articles 23 and 24 and laid emphasis on the observance of fundamental rights by private individuals. In the case of Bandhua Mukti Morcha v. Union of India & Others, the Court took into cognizance the employment of children in the carpet manufacturing industry in Mirzapur, Uttar Pradesh. It instructed the District magistrate to conduct raids, which resulted in the release of 144 children, held under forced custody by the owners. In the case of Sheela Barse & Others v. Union of India, the Supreme Court directed the release of children being exposed to chemical fumes and coal dust in the glass industry. In the case of M.C. Mehta v. State of Tamil Nadu, the Court directed the government to identify working children, ensure their withdrawal from hazardous industries, ensure their appropriate education and ensure that at least one adult member of the child's family received employment.
[3] Many NGOs, such as Bachpan Bachao Andolan, ChildFund, CARE India, Talaash Association, Child Rights and You, Global March Against Child Labour, Bundelkhand matra bhumi samaj sevi sansthan project stop working with child labour in India, RIDE India, and Childline, have been working to eradicate child labour in India.
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

When Jews Were Arabs Too
Michael Young/carnegie/September 04/2023
In his latest book, historian Avi Shlaim describes the three worlds that helped to shape him—Iraq, Israel, and Britain.
Some of the most incisive and informative books about the dispossession of the Arab population of Palestine by Zionist forces in 1948 have been written by Israeli revisionist historians. Among the most prominent is Avi Shlaim, who has just published a revealing memoir titled, Three Worlds: Memoirs of an Arab-Jew. Shlaim is known for two important books reexamining Arab-Israeli relations. The first is Collusion Across the Jordan: King Abdullah, the Zionist Movement, and the Partition of Palestine (1988), in which he examined how the Zionist movement and King Abdullah of Jordan reached an implicit agreement to divide Palestine between themselves. The book was later reissued in an abridged, revised version, titled The Politics of Partition: King Abdullah, the Zionists, and Palestine, 1921–1951.
Shlaim is perhaps better known for a second book, The Iron Wall: Israel and the Arab World. In it, he argues that a founding principle of Israel, and the dominant rationale for its relations with the Arabs, was to build the state behind an “iron wall” of military superiority, which the Arabs “will be powerless to break down,” in the words of the Revisionist Zionist leader Ze’ev Jabotinsky, who first expressed this idea in a famous essay written in 1923.
In his memoir, Shlaim describes his early years in Baghdad as the son of Iraqi Jews (though, on his father’s side, the name Shlaim “was probably a German name that went back several generations”). He grew up in a household that spoke Arabic, was immersed in Arab culture, and had prospered in Iraq. To Shlaim, Iraq’s Jews were Arab, and if Palestinians were the Zionist movement’s primary victims, they were hardly alone, as the Jews of the Arab world were as well. “By endowing Judaism with a territorial dimension that it did not have previously, [Zionism] accentuated the difference between Muslims and Jews in Arab spaces. Whether they liked it or not, from now on Jews were identified with the Jewish state,” he writes.
Especially interesting in the memoir is the extent to which, after his family moved to Israel in 1950, Shlaim felt the disparity between Ashkenazi Jews and Mizrahi Jews, who had immigrated from the Arab world. There was condescension in the attitude of Israel’s Ashkenazi elite to those coming from the East, and Shlaim laments that the Arab identity among Arab Jews was “relegated to the past,” in favor of an “arrogant, Eurocentric Orientalist mindset” that treated the Mizrahi newcomers as second-class citizens. “I was particularly ashamed of speaking Arabic in public,” Shlaim recalls, “because Arabic in Israel was considered an ugly language, a primitive language, and, worst of all, the language of the enemy.”
Nor is Shlaim soft on Israel’s founding mythologies. He regards Zionism as “a settler-colonial movement that proceeded ruthlessly towards its goal of building a Jewish state in Palestine even if it involved, as it was bound to, expelling much of the native population.” Shlaim has no hesitation in describing this “monumental injustice” as a case of “ethnic cleansing.” These days, Israel’s most ardent supporters seek to impose a definition of anti-Semitism that encompasses, therefore delegitimizes, such hard-hitting statements on Israel, regardless of the fact that leading Jewish writers have expressed similar thoughts in their writings.
For example, the great French Marxist scholar of Islam, Maxime Rodinson, whose parents were murdered in Auschwitz-Birkenau, wrote a highly influential article in Les Temps Modernes in 1967, in which he observed, “Wanting to create a purely Jewish, or predominantly Jewish, state in Arab Palestine in the 20th century could not help but lead to a colonial-type situation and to the development (completely normal, sociologically speaking) of a racist state of mind, and in the final analysis to a military confrontation between the two ethnic groups.”
Similarly, Shlaim’s fellow revisionist historian Benny Morris has publicly defended the Zionist forces’ decision to expel the Palestinians. In an interview with Ari Shavit in 2004, Morris, who wrote on the birth of the Palestinian refugee problem, agreed with Shavit’s description of David Ben-Gurion, the head of the Jewish Agency Executive in 1948, as a “transferist”—or what Shlaim would call an ethnic cleanser. “Of course. Ben-Gurion was a transferist,” Morris acknowledged. “He understood that there could be no Jewish state with a large and hostile Arab minority in its midst… Without the uprooting of the Palestinians, a Jewish state would not have arisen here.” A third revisionist Israeli historian, Ilan Pappe, titled his book, published in 2007, The Ethnic Cleansing of Palestine. So, while Shlaim’s views may anger Israel’s defenders, those who know the country’s history are increasingly employing the controversial term “ethnic cleansing” to describe what occurred.
What is striking about Shlaim’s memoir, however, has less to do with his opinions about Israel than with how he addresses the notion of identity. The path is hardly a linear one. While Shlaim resents the fact that the Ashkenazi elite looked down on Mizrahi Jews, he does admit that when he entered the Israeli military before the June 1967 war, he saw the army as “the melting pot to which Zionist ideology had always aspired but rarely achieved.” While he subsequently became a leading critic of Israel, there was also a time when he leaned politically to the right, before the post-1967 situation changed his mind and the Israeli military “was transformed into a brutal police force of a brutal colonial power.”
Shlaim displays considerable honesty in his memoir, which ironically obscures his motives. He is candid about the impact immigration to Israel had on his family, not least on his father, Yusef, the unobtrusive centerpiece of his story. Shlaim describes an incident in the mid-1950s, when Yusef approached him while Shlaim was sitting with friends. The father began addressing him in Arabic, but Shlaim was so embarrassed that he was not speaking in Hebrew, a language Yusef was struggling to learn, that he barely answered. “As a child I never considered how humiliating this incident must have been for him,” Shlaim writes with great regret.
In the third section of the book, describing the author’s time in the third of his “three worlds,” Shlaim recounts how, because of his poor performance at school, his strong-willed mother sent him to Britain to pursue his studies. He left Israel in September 1961 and never moved back for an extended period of time. In describing his departure, he writes, “I left the Promised Land without as much as a backward glance.” Why such tartness? “I experienced, for the first time in my life, a profound feeling of liberation. I was on my own now, free from the constraints of school and the pressures of an Ashkenazi-dominated society,” Shlaim explains.
However, readers are left wondering about one thing. To what extent is Shlaim’s resentment toward Israel a consequence of his growing consciousness of, and unhappiness with, a society built on the injustices done to the Palestinians? Or to what degree is it anchored in his own dysfunctional family’s Israeli experiences?
It’s not easy to answer these questions. Certainly, the fact that Shlaim’s family was forced to leave Iraq and come to Israel to join what was then a downtrodden Mizrahi community made him more sensitive to the Palestinians’ plight. However, that outcome was hardly immediate, and one wonders if what flipped the switch was the way Israel effectively broke the spirit of Shlaim’s father.
Yusef Shlaim is the tragic figure in this account. Much older than Shlaim’s determined mother Mas‘uda, or Saida, he had prospered in Iraq and had never been convinced about moving to Israel. Yusef’s marriage to Saida was arranged, and as a young woman she unsuccessfully resisted getting married so soon. When the family traveled to Israel, Yusef could not adapt and his few business ventures failed. He suffered a “spectacular fall” in his social standing, as his son describes it. Soon he was idly sitting at home, forcing Saida to find a job to feed the family. This put untold stress on his relationship with his wife, eventually leading to the parents’ divorce. It was to save Shlaim from this morbid atmosphere that Saida took the initiative to send the overindulged boy of the family to Britain.
There is a discerning passage in which Shlaim describes how a fellow Iraqi Jew he met at the University of Oxford, Merav Rosenfeld-Hadad, explained the long silences of Shlaim’s father. To her, Yusef had “arrived in a country of European Jews who had no idea of the richness of his civilization nor of his position and stature within it. If anything, they tended to regard him and his ilk as backward and uncivilized. What was the point of talking to these people? Even if he wanted to talk, he did not have a language in which to communicate with them.”
To anyone from the Middle East who interacts regularly with Westerners, this astute remark resonates strongly. Without generalizing, many Westerners tend to view Arab culture through the prism of the violence and distress afflicting Arab states, and their attitude is not so much one of sympathy as a vague form of contempt. Yet the subtlety inherent in the cultures of the region, the richness of what is left unsaid, the complex rituals of generosity and social interaction, the insights into half-tones and ambiguity, reveal a sophistication that Westerners frequently don’t have, and usually don’t see. That Yusef’s withdrawal was the result of such a profound misapprehension makes much sense. But one cannot help but wonder if it is also what helps explain the attitudes of Yusef’s son.
*Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

Saudi Arabia beating illiteracy while Iran lags behind
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/September 04, 2023
Investing in human capital is a priority for any government that believes in its citizens’ significance and indispensability for socioeconomic and state progression. In particular, the youth is a vital cog in such progression.
Governments that are aware of this importance work hard to harness all available resources to develop and shape human capabilities, create efficient cadres and prepare the youth, via educational institutions, to become effective contributors in the quest for national development. Thus, we find that many countries craft strict laws and regulations to ensure that children, both male and female, participate in education. In addition, they follow up on the issue with keenness and diligence, monitor school dropouts and use all means possible to end illiteracy. Some governments go even further and focus on ending illiteracy in specific areas, such as increasing the percentage of the population that is comfortable with modern technology, foremost of which is computer information technology.
Over recent years, I have been following the state of illiteracy in the region, particularly in the Gulf states. I have noticed that the six Arabian Gulf states that suffered rampant illiteracy more than six decades ago have now become pioneers and are significantly advanced in all levels of education. They have also designed widespread programs to combat illiteracy and even end it completely.
For example, we find that the illiteracy rate in Saudi Arabia reached 60 percent in 1972, while the latest tallies show that it declined to 3.7 percent by the end of 2021. In 2013, illiteracy stood at 6.81 percent for all age groups, men and women. This means that illiteracy has declined by half within eight years. According to Saudi Vision 2030, illiteracy is expected to reach zero by this date through several programs targeting the biggest segment of the illiterate: the elderly. This is in addition to providing all means to facilitate the educational process for them, as well as rewarding those who excel.
These accomplishments paint a clear picture about the policy of the Saudi government on learning at all levels. It is worth noting that the school enrollment rate has reached 99 percent and there are regulations and harsh penalties for those who block children from joining the educational process and regularly attending class. These accomplishments paint a clear picture about the policy of the Saudi government on education and learning at all levels. Additionally, these accomplishments complement the Kingdom’s progress in all other international indicators.
Conversely, we find that illiteracy in Iran is exponentially increasing, a course contrary to what we find across the world. Yousef Nouri, Iran’s former education minister, recently stated that there are 9 million fully illiterate people in Iran. He also noted that the number of children dropping out of school in the three elementary stages had reached 970,000, noting that absolute illiteracy in Iran accounts for 10 percent of the populace. This is a staggering figure.
During his participation in a show on a local educational television channel, according to the Persian-language Radio Farda, Nouri said that “the tally includes the number of illiterates aged above six. They are totally illiterate. They don’t know how to read or write. And I believe that the illiteracy statistics in Iran this year haven’t seen a change.”
Nouri also pointed to the difference in targeted educational segments between Iran and other nations. He said: “At present, Iran is educating those aged between six and 49, while the targeted age all over the world extends to a man’s entire life.” This means that, although there is illiteracy in Iran and it is mounting, the Iranian regime has totally stopped combating illiteracy for those aged 50 and above.
Illiteracy in Iran is exponentially increasing, a course contrary to what we find across the world. The Iranian parliament’s Research Center announced in 2019 that the number of absolute illiterates in Iran was nearing 9 million people. In the same year, however, the World Bank estimated that the number of those illiterate in Iran stood at 11.6 million, accounting for 15 percent of the total population. An example of the country’s modest and inadequate efforts to fight illiteracy is the fact that the portion of those lettered among the Iranian people reached 79.5 percent in 1996. Two decades later, in 2021, the literacy rate stood at 88.7 percent. Taken together, progress in fighting illiteracy over the span of 25 years has been significantly slow and there are years like 2006, in which the rate of literacy declined compared to the previous year. The illiteracy rate in the capital Tehran stands at 6 percent, according to official remarks published by Mawj news agency. The illiteracy rates in Sistan and Balochistan, Khuzestan, West Azerbaijan, Lorestan and Hormozgan are much higher. In addition to illiteracy, a related phenomenon is school dropouts. According to official figures, the overall number of dropouts in Iran for the academic year 2021/2022 was 911,272 students, a 26 percent increase on the previous school year. The number of middle school students who dropped out increased from 60,000 to 154,000 between 2015 and 2022.
Added to the current realities of rampant illiteracy and school dropouts is the upsurge in child labor in Iran. Official reports show that there are 120,000 child laborers in the country, 70,000 of whom work in the capital Tehran. Up to 14,500 children are homeless and living on the street — known in Iran as “cartonkhab” children — according to a report published by the State Welfare Organization of Iran in mid-March.
A UNESCO report stated that about 2 percent of Iranians aged between 15 and 24 are “completely illiterate,” while 63 percent of those over the age of 65 are also unlettered. As a result, the UNICEF Statistics Center listed Iran as one of the worst nations for children in 2021. Only Yemen and Afghanistan were lower than Iran in the rankings, while Iraq, Syria and Palestine were ahead. To conclude, if Iran genuinely proceeds in strategically transforming — meaning shifting from the phase of revolution to statehood — and focuses more on development as well as on investing in human capital, it will catch up with the region’s countries in terms of progression. Tehran will also be able to enhance its rankings on global indicators. Otherwise, it will continue to revisit the same issues, but each time will find the negative figures getting much worse — with the Iranian regime doing little to prevent this deterioration.
*Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is the founder and president of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami

Iranian drones over Kyiv are an omen of new global threats
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/September 04, 2023
The world is scrambling to respond to manifestations of increasingly symbiotic Russian-Iranian coordination that flout the full spectrum of international norms and fundamentally undermine global security.
Iran rushed to support Russia in its Ukrainian hour of need after years of Moscow proffering lifelines to its southern ally: Russia repeatedly used its Security Council veto to shield Iran, it provided Tehran with defense and sanctions-evasion assistance, and crucially came to its rescue in Syria.
Tehran has reciprocally reinvigorated Russia’s floundering war efforts with the provision of hundreds of cut-price kamikaze drones and other munitions. This multibillion-dollar deal includes Iran assisting Moscow in establishing its own domestic war drone industry, aspiring to manufacture 6,000 drones by mid-2025. Moscow has sought to manufacture a variant of Iran’s Shahed 136 attack drone with a range of over 1,600 kilometers. Because of its noisy, primitive lawnmower-like engine, Ukrainians nicknamed the Shahed 136 “the flying moped," but the weapon nevertheless had a devastating impact on Kyiv’s civilian infrastructure and grain silos holding thousands of tons of essential food supplies for the developing world.
Russian technicians aspire to overcome Iran’s outdated manufacturing techniques and poor quality control. Around 25 percent of drones shipped from Iran were inoperable. The Washington Post reported that Russia wanted to advance from current limited Shahed launches to mass strikes using hundreds of kamikaze drones, with technology enabling drones to swarm and autonomously coordinate targeted strikes. The likes of Hezbollah, North Korea and Daesh will be watching such innovations closely and learning lessons of their own.
Agreements are in place for sharing such innovations back with Tehran, in an unvirtuous cycle of mutual cooperation that would elevate the military capabilities of both these aggressors to entirely new levels. Iran furthermore hopes to secure future access to Russia’s advanced S-400 air defense systems and Su-35 fighter aircraft. Moscow and Tehran achieved all this despite heavy international sanctions. This is particularly remarkable, given that 90 percent of these drone systems’ electronic components were manufactured by Western companies.
Major efforts are meanwhile afoot to harmonize the Russian and Iranian banking systems with the goal of sanctions evasion. Hundreds of banks are thought to be involved, with the possibility of further link-ups with Chinese and Asian banking systems. The two nations are building a 3,200-kilometer sanctions-defying transcontinental trade route from eastern Europe to the Indian Ocean. This includes upgrades on Caspian Sea ports, a rail link via Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, and a Russian-built 164km railway through Iran down to the Bandar Abbas port.
Drone strikes against Kyiv power stations are merely the tip of the iceberg of this emerging transcontinental system ... putting Europe, the GCC and Southeast Asia under threat of military aggression.
Plans are also in place for the Revolutionary Guard’s Khatam Al-Anbiya conglomerate to build a rail route linking Iran to Iraq’s Faw port, with connections through into Syria and the Mediterranean, thereby seamlessly connecting up Tehran’s “Axis of Evil” allies. When China’s Belt and Road initiative is factored in, it is easy to see how trans-Asian transport and banking connections render Western sanctions an irrelevance.
American negotiations with Tehran aim to halt further nuclear enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief. With commendable optimism, Washington seeks commitments for halting drone shipments and Iran-Russia military cooperation. Given their geographic proximity, any such understandings would be near impossible to police, particularly as Iran and Russia routinely deny such cooperation exists in the first place.
Alongside drones, Iran possesses by far the region’s largest ballistic missiles program — although not necessarily the most effective. Iran, Russia, China and North Korea are meanwhile among the foremost proponents of cyberwarfare, another means of waging war on the cheap. The critical infrastructure of Arab Gulf states and European nations has already endured thousands of cyberattacks. Iran generously shares its drone, missile and cyber expertise with proxy militias in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon, and has staged repeated strikes throughout the GCC, including the 2019 attack on Saudi oil processing facilities.
However, it is perfectly possible that these rogue regimes will be the death of each other. This mutual shielding, locally and on the international stage, lulls leaderships into a false sense of security that they can massacre their civilians and menace their neighbors with impunity. Yet last year’s mass uprising by Iranian schoolgirls and defiant women, and the botched coup by one of Vladimir Putin’s closest warlord allies, highlighted how fragile and unpopular these tinpot juntas really are. Some day soon these brawling regimes will lurch into a fight they can’t win.
Iran’s recent incorporation into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICs grouping also gives rise to two bodies through which Russia, Iran and China can project their anti-democratic agendas. The agreement with China to invest up to $400 billion in Iran’s economy over the next 25 years has meanwhile seen a major upgrade in this bilateral relationship, with a similar agenda for undermining Western global supremacy.
Drone strikes against Kyiv power stations are merely the tip of the iceberg of this emerging transcontinental system, specifically established to subvert international norms and facilitate the proliferation of dirty money, nuclear technology and heavy weaponry — putting Europe, the GCC and Southeast Asia under threat of military aggression.
Dirt-cheap production costs of armed drones and cyberwarfare have profound implications for the manner in which future conflicts are waged, raising the prospect that Tehran-backed paramilitary and terrorist groups could stage asymmetric attacks against cities using swarms of UAVs and missiles.
While primitive drones and rockets are no match for the missile defense systems of Israel and America, this threat of military “overmatch” keeps the generals awake at night worrying about Iran, North Korea, or Hezbollah simultaneously launching such large numbers of munitions that they overwhelm the ability of defense systems to neutralize the onslaught. With Ukraine now also staging indiscriminate drone attacks across Russia and stepping up its own production of such munitions, this is a reminder to Putin that the ability to wage war on the cheap cuts both ways. It is meanwhile simply a matter of time before a whole spectrum of other minor players join this arms race. We should not be simply trying to appease or ignore major producers of bargain basement munitions, such as Iran. This threat of mass carnage weapons so cheap they can be purchased by someone on an average income should be confronted head on, with rigorously enforced international conventions restricting their manufacture, sale, and use, and the export of key components if we are to avoid a scenario in which wildcat strikes on critical infrastructure or terrorists menacing entire cities become the norm.
• Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.