Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 03-04/2023
2 months after Hasrouni's murder, his wife dies in car crash
One goal, multiple options: Qatari envoy pursues presidential consensus in Lebanon
5 nations may meet this week, Khulaifi may delay his visit
Report: Qatari envoy fails to find 'common ground' between Lebanese parties
Report: Hezbollah wants 'amended Taif' or 'new Doha' to give up Franjieh
Report: Bassil to sue army chief after his term ends
Sami Gemayel to Nasrallah: We are not afraid of you
Addressing the cause of road flooding: The responsibility of citizens toward waste disposal
One goal, multiple options: Qatari envoy pursues presidential consensus in Lebanon
TotalEnergies, Eni, and QatarEnergy alliance: Commitment to Lebanon's gas exploration
Jumblatt voices support for peaceful movement in Jabal al-Arab
GASOLINE PRICE DROPS, DIESEL'S RISES
Int'l Efforts to Resolve Lebanon’s Crisis Stumble at Local Intransigence
Iran to trade Hezbollah arms to Moscow, Arab tribes in Syria - report/Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/October 03/202

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 03-04/2023
Kevin McCarthy removed as US House Speaker in historic vote
Bank of Canada: Frequent price hikes by businesses contributing to sticky inflation
Canadian House of Commons elects Liberal MP Greg Fergus as first Black Canadian Speaker
Iran's Khamenei says normalising ties with Israel is 'betting on a losing horse' - state media
Iran Arrests Spy Cell for Smuggling Starlink Equipment
Four Karabakh leaders held in Azerbaijan, three more reach Armenia - agencies
French Minister Heads to Armenia to Boost Bilateral Support
UN team in Nagorno-Karabakh did not see any damage to hospitals, schools
Armenia's parliament votes to join the International Criminal Court, straining ties with ally Russia
Russia says 335,000 sign up to fight, no plans for new mobilisation
Biden Tries to Reassure Allies of Continued US Support for Ukraine after Congress Drops Aid Request
Putin will not 'make concessions' as Russia appears to be preparing for 'multiple further years' of war in Ukraine, international affairs expert says
India tells Canada to remove 41 of its 62 diplomats in the country, an official says
Türkiye Detains Nearly 1,000, Including Alleged Kurdish Militants, Following Suicide Bomb Attack
Iraq: Head of Mosul Diocese Calls for Int’l Probe into Wedding Hall Fire
Saudi football team refuses to play in Iran over busts of Soleimani
Sissi confirms he will run for new term in upcoming presidential elections
Tunisia rejects EU funds, says they fall short of deal for migration

Titles For The Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 03-04/2023
Small steps to a Saudi-Israel ‘mega-deal’...But Washington shouldn’t pursue comprehensive Middle East peace at the expense of localized wins/Hussain Abdul-Hussain/ Asia Times/October 03/2023
Israel has much to gain from an agreement with Saudi Arabia - opinion/Elie Podeh/Jerusalem Post/October 03/2023
Ukraine's Victory Over Russia Will Benefit Western Security/Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/October 03/2023
Russia's 2024 Federal Budget Shows Resilience To External Economic Shocks/Dr. Vladislav L. Inozemtsev*/MEMRI/October 03/2023
Peace with Saudi Arabia!/Yousef Al-Dayni//Asharq Al Awsat/October 03/2023
What Can Saudi Negotiations with Israel Achieve that Past Peace Agreements Couldn’t?/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed'/Asharq Al Awsat/October 03/2023
'A lot of work' remains on Saudi-Israel deal, US envoy says/Elizabeth Hagedorn/Al-Monitor/October 03/2023

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 03-04/2023
2 months after Hasrouni's murder, his wife dies in car crash
Naharnet/October 03/2023
The wife of slain Lebanese Forces member Elias Hasrouni, Yvette Sleiman Hasrouni, has died of her wounds following a car crash, the National News Agency reported on Tuesday. The woman, who hailed from the southern town of Ain Ebel, had been rushed to the Salah Ghandour Hospital in Bint Jbeil suffering a hemorrhage and requiring large quantities of blood, NNA said. Her husband Elias had been initially thought to have died in a car crash before video footage showed that he was abducted and murdered by a group of men. The LF has accused Hezbollah of being behind the murder and of obstructing the investigations into the incident.

One goal, multiple options: Qatari envoy pursues presidential consensus in Lebanon
LBCI/October 03/2023
In his ongoing diplomatic mission to Lebanon, Qatari envoy Abu Fahd Jassim Al Thani assumed the role of a keen listener while simultaneously presenting multiple ideas and drawing various conclusions. With Lebanon's political landscape rife with complexity and polarization, Al Thani engaged in discussions with various parties, steering the dialogue toward potential consensus. The crux of these consultations revolves around the unwavering support of the Amal-Hezbollah duo for their presidential candidate, Sleiman Frangieh, a stance they have maintained thus far. On the other hand, the name endorsed by Doha, Lebanese Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, was also brought into the negotiations. Surprisingly, Al Thani momentarily shifted the focus away from General Joseph Aoun, even though he remains Doha's primary choice. Qatar appears increasingly convinced that the obstacles preventing Aoun's ascent to the presidency are insurmountable, given the staunch opposition from the Amal-Hezbollah duo and their ally, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM). This shift prompted the Qatari envoy to explore a third option, that of General Elias al-Baysari, the General Director of General Security. However, al-Baysari's potential candidacy, accepted by Hezbollah, faced resistance from multiple opposition factions, particularly the Lebanese Forces party, which cited its own terms for support. Many observers interpreted al-Baysari's proposal as an attempt to undermine Frangieh's candidacy entirely in favor of a third candidate, which could potentially be al-Baysari or another name completely. What is clear is that another round of consultations lies ahead for the Qatari envoy. His current stay in Lebanon is essential for all parties involved. Additionally, the Qatari State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi, has reportedly postponed his visit until Sheikh Abu Fahd's mission is completed. With more than one envoy and numerous initiatives, the ultimate goal remains the same – the election of a new Lebanese president.

5 nations may meet this week, Khulaifi may delay his visit
Naharnet/October 03/2023
The five-nation committee on Lebanon might hold a meeting in Riyadh this week or next week at the latest, al-Binaa newspaper reported on Tuesday. Sources involved in the presidential file meanwhile told al-Akhbar newspaper that Qatari envoy Jassem bin Fahad Al-Thani “has practically ended the exploratory mission that he carried out without achieving a serious result.”“This matter might push (Qatari State Minister Mohammed) al-Khulaifi to postpone his visit pending the outcome of the results of (French envoy Jean-Yves) Le Drian’s upcoming visit” to Lebanon, the sources added.

Report: Qatari envoy fails to find 'common ground' between Lebanese parties
Naharnet/October 03/2023
Qatar has reportedly failed to find common ground between Lebanese political parties, amid a protracted and bitter presidential crisis that has dragged since Michel Aoun's term ended in October last year. An informed source told al-Akhbar, in remarks published Tuesday, that the Free Patriotic Movement and opposition forces have refused the nomination of Army chief Gen. Joseph Aoun as a third-man solution, while the Shiite Duo clinged to its candidate, Marada leader Suleiman Franjieh. Qatari envoy Jassem Bin Fahad Al-Thani, who is trying to find a third candidate, other than Franjieh and former minister Jihad Azour, suggested acting General Security chief Brig. Gen. Elias Baissari, the source said, but the Shiite Duo refused to back off from supporting Franjieh. Media reports had claimed that Al-Thani tried to convince Franjieh to withdraw and that he asked Hezbollah what it would do in case Franjieh did. But, according to the source, Franjieh said he will not withdraw from the presidential race. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said in a televised address Monday that the Qatari envoy is exerting daily efforts to reach a result but that "nothing is clear" so far. The divided Parliament failed for 12 times to elect a new president, with neither of the two main blocs -- Hezbollah and its opponents -- having the 86 votes required to elect one in a first round of voting. Hezbollah and Amal MPs left every session before the second round of voting -- where the winner only requires 65 ballots. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri hasn't called for an electoral session since June 14. He instead called for a dialogue before going to "open-ended sessions to elect a president." The opposition refused to engage in dialogue to agree on a head of state before proceeding with a vote, preferring to rely on the democratic process. Last week French special envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian urged Lebanese factions to find a "third way" for electing a new president, warning that France and its allies the United States, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt, were losing patience after almost a year of deadlock and now reviewing their financial aid.

Report: Hezbollah wants 'amended Taif' or 'new Doha' to give up Franjieh
Naharnet/October 03/2023
The dependence of the solution in Lebanon on regional solutions has further complicated the country’s crisis, informed sources said. “The problem is currently linked to Hezbollah’s attempt to guarantee the continuity of its weapons through a decisive power structure, laying out a series of conditions to give up Suleiman Franjieh’s presidential nomination and accept a third choice as per the five-nation committee’s demand,” the sources told Kuwait’s al-Anbaa newspaper in remarks published Tuesday. According to the sources, the conditions include “modifying the Taef Accord or striking a new Doha Agreement, as happened in 2008, which gives the Defiance camp a blocking one-third-plus-one share in Cabinet, or else the party will keep clinging to Franjieh’s nomination.”

Report: Bassil to sue army chief after his term ends
Naharnet/October 03/2023
The issue of the army commander post will take center stage in the next few weeks, amid “the lack of chances to reach a solution in the presidential file prior to the January 10 expiry of the army chief’s term,” MTV reported on Tuesday. Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil is meanwhile waging an “all-out war” against the army chief, General Joseph Aoun, the TV network said. Bassil is waging his “war” on three fronts: preventing Aoun from becoming president, blocking the extension of his term as army chief and suing him after the end of his term, MTV said. “A legal file is being prepared in this regard in cooperation with a prominent judge,” the TV network added.

Sami Gemayel to Nasrallah: We are not afraid of you
Naharnet/October 03/2023
Kataeb leader Sami Gemayel accused Hezbollah of "hijacking the presidential juncture" after he met Tuesday with the ambassadors of Qatar and Egypt. "Dialogue is not imposing a candidate in a fruitless meeting," Gemayel said, accusing Hezbollah of being the party refusing dialogue and solutions. "Both French and Qatari initiatives will fail if Hezbollah insists on its candidate, instead of meeting us halfway," he said. "We are the ones who need guarantees," Gemayel went on to say, as he slammed Hezbollah central council member Sheikh Nabil Qaouq who dubbed the opposition a burden. "Are you threatening us?" Gemayel asked. "All what we want is equality under the constitution and the law, and to live in peace in our country." "We are not afraid of you," Gemayel told Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. "You have to accept that we are equal," he said."The truth is not that the Lebanese are in disagreement. The truth is that one party is refusing but to impose its candidate," he charged, claiming that this is why all foreign initiatives to break the presidential impasse are failing.

Addressing the cause of road flooding: The responsibility of citizens toward waste disposal
LBCI/October 03/2023
Citizens bear a significant responsibility for the flooding of our roads.
Despite constant warnings about the potential for city flooding if waste accumulates on the roads, the same scenes of trash bags, bottles, and unidentifiable waste items covering the drainage channels and gutters are evident. This is a crucial factor that citizens are the main cause of flooding. In the days leading up to the anticipated winter rain, we embarked on a journey along the public highways from Jounieh to Byblos and from Beirut to Damour. Along the way, we encountered mountains of waste. Those responsible for road maintenance must understand that rain will inevitably wash this waste onto the highways, blocking drainage channels designed for water flow, not solid waste.

One goal, multiple options: Qatari envoy pursues presidential consensus in Lebanon
LBCI/October 03/2023
In his ongoing diplomatic mission to Lebanon, Qatari envoy Abu Fahd Jassim Al Thani assumed the role of a keen listener while simultaneously presenting multiple ideas and drawing various conclusions. With Lebanon's political landscape rife with complexity and polarization, Al Thani engaged in discussions with various parties, steering the dialogue toward potential consensus. The crux of these consultations revolves around the unwavering support of the Amal-Hezbollah duo for their presidential candidate, Sleiman Frangieh, a stance they have maintained thus far. On the other hand, the name endorsed by Doha, Lebanese Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, was also brought into the negotiations. Surprisingly, Al Thani momentarily shifted the focus away from General Joseph Aoun, even though he remains Doha's primary choice. Qatar appears increasingly convinced that the obstacles preventing Aoun's ascent to the presidency are insurmountable, given the staunch opposition from the Amal-Hezbollah duo and their ally, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM). This shift prompted the Qatari envoy to explore a third option, that of General Elias al-Baysari, the General Director of General Security. However, al-Baysari's potential candidacy, accepted by Hezbollah, faced resistance from multiple opposition factions, particularly the Lebanese Forces party, which cited its own terms for support. Many observers interpreted al-Baysari's proposal as an attempt to undermine Frangieh's candidacy entirely in favor of a third candidate, which could potentially be al-Baysari or another name completely. What is clear is that another round of consultations lies ahead for the Qatari envoy. His current stay in Lebanon is essential for all parties involved. Additionally, the Qatari State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi, has reportedly postponed his visit until Sheikh Abu Fahd's mission is completed. With more than one envoy and numerous initiatives, the ultimate goal remains the same – the election of a new Lebanese president.

TotalEnergies, Eni, and QatarEnergy alliance: Commitment to Lebanon's gas exploration
LBCI/October 03/2023
In the afternoon of last Monday, the Ministry of Energy and Water announced the conclusion of the application submission period for the second licensing round dedicated to gas exploration in Lebanese waters. The Ministry received bids for Blocks 8 and 10, with both bids coming from the coalition of TotalEnergies and Eni, along with QatarEnergy. It's worth noting that this alliance had previously won bids for Blocks 4 and 9 in the first licensing round. Following the Energy Ministry's announcement of the application deadline, objections were raised, questioning why the Ministry did not leave the application submission window open until the initial drilling results for Block 9, expected by the end of October, to attract more competitive offers and improve the terms for the Lebanese state. In response to these objections, sources familiar with the matter emphasize the positive aspects of the situation. Firstly, the interest of the alliance in Blocks 8 and 10, which are adjacent to Block 9, increases the possibility of additional discoveries in these blocks if commercial quantities of gas are found in Block 9 and specifically in the Qana field. These sources confirm that if discoveries are made in Block 9, the Ministry will be able to improve the financial and technical conditions for the Lebanese state through negotiations with the alliance. This undermines the theory that the Ministry should have extended the application submission deadline. In case the Ministry does not reach a positive outcome through negotiations, it can choose not to bind the project to the mentioned alliance. If no commercial discoveries are made in the potential Qana field, the Lebanese state will have obtained two additional offers for Blocks 8 and 10 that can be studied. In the end, the participation of the TotalEnergies, Eni, and QatarEnergy alliance in the second licensing round demonstrates their strong commitment to exploration and offshore production in Lebanon. LBCI sources confirmed that the Energy Ministry will be informed by October 22nd about the alliance's final decision on whether to continue work in Block 4 or not. Based on the drilling results in Block 9, the Ministry will choose the appropriate timing to launch the third licensing round to attract additional companies to Lebanese waters.

Jumblatt voices support for peaceful movement in Jabal al-Arab
NNA/October 03/2023
The General Assembly of the Sectarian Council held an expanded meeting at the Druze sect’s house in Beirut, in the presence of Druze Sheikh, Dr. Sami Abi Al-Muna, former head of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, and a number of sheikhs and figures. In the wake of the meeting, Jumblatt said in a statement: “We’ve met in this noble house and discussed various internal matters related to the Druze sect and the country. The session was useful, and sessions like this must be repeated.”
He added: "We’ve touched on the situation in Jabal al-Arab, and we’ve affirmed support for a peaceful movement whilst avoiding internal or non-internal conflicts."

GASOLINE PRICE DROPS, DIESEL'S RISES
NNA/October 03/2023
- The price of the gasoline canister dropped by LBP 18,000 in Lebanon on Tuesday, while that of diesel rose by LBP 8,000 and that of LP gas by LBP 14,000.
Prices are consequently as follows:
95-octane gasoline: LBP 1,814,000
98-octane gasoline: LBP 1,852,000
Diesel: LBP 1,781,000
LPG: LBP 968,000

Int'l Efforts to Resolve Lebanon’s Crisis Stumble at Local Intransigence
Asharq Al-Awsat/October 03/2023
International efforts to resolve the presidential vacuum in Lebanon are stumbling at the intransigence of the local parties, which has so far prevented a tangible breakthrough. French Presidential Envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian is expected to visit Beirut this month in continuation of Paris' efforts to help the country’s disputing parties to agree on a new president for the republic. Eleven months after the expiry of President Michel Aoun’s term, Lebanon’s political parties are still unable to elect a successor. The Hezbollah party and Amal Movement are insisting on nominating the head of the Marada movement, former Minister Suleiman Franjieh, while the opposition is asking Speaker Nabih Berri to call for successive electoral sessions that would ultimately end with the election of a new president. Member of the Lebanese Forces MP Fadi Karam pointed to “continuous, diverse and extensive initiatives” to end the crisis, the latest of which has been from Qatar. He added: “It would have been more beneficial for the internal parties to resort to the constitution and apply it instead of waiting for external initiatives.” In a radio interview, Karam stressed that the Qatari initiative was not aimed at electing Army Commander General Joseph Aoun as president, adding that the Qataris were “open to all possibilities.”Despite the multitude of initiatives, the issue is still being met with “internal intransigence” and “rigidity in positions,” according to parliamentary sources who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat. They revealed that the internal political forces “did not show sufficient flexibility in dealing with these efforts.”This assessment was confirmed by MP Ghassan Skaff, who said on X that the Qatari and French efforts will not succeed if they are not reciprocated by the Lebanese parties.

Iran to trade Hezbollah arms to Moscow, Arab tribes in Syria - report
This trade could threaten the US in Syria, which gives Iran four wins: Aiding Russia, Hezbollah and threatening the US and Israel.
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/October 03/202
An extraordinary article in Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida has claimed that Iran is seeking to create a complex deal in Syria, so as to transfer weapons from Hezbollah to Syrian regime-backed Arab tribes, as well as to send arms to Moscow.
Maariv described this as a four-way deal, one that threatens both Israel and Ukraine. The interplay between Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and Syria has always been complex, with any movement benefitting Hezbollah or Iran-backed proxies seen a threat. If true, the move could result in a concerning weapons flow, especially new Iranian weapons to Hezbollah. While moving weapons away from Hezbollah and to the tribes or to Russia appears counterintuitive – since Hezbollah tends to stockpile weapons – this could actually take the older munitions off of Hezbollah’s hands, setting it up to get the newer ones, while earning it gratitude from Moscow. This move would threaten US forces in Syria, giving Iran four wins: Aiding Russia, aiding Hezbollah, threatening the US, and threatening Israel. Iran has historically moved weapons through Syria and on to Hezbollah. The Syrian Civil War, which began in 2011, shifted this equation slightly because Hezbollah intervened to help the regime, with Iranian support, which also moved IRGC troops to the area.
The goal was Iranian entrenchment. As the Syrian regime began to defeat the rebels with the help of Hezbollah, Hezbollah benefited and established itself in areas in Syria, like near Aleppo and the Golan. Iran then expanded its trading axis in Syria, moving weapons to Albukamal on the border with Iraq, and transferring them to T-4 base and to Damascus and Syria. Then, in 2017-2018, rumors circulated that Iran might reduce its forces in Syria. However, although some IRGC members did leave, Iran’s proxies remained strong. When Russia invaded Ukraine last year, reports circulated then as well, in Arabic media, that Russia might shift forces to Ukraine, and that Iran could benefit in Syria by backfilling the Russian vacuum.
Warehouses of weapons
Al-Jarida ran reports in the past on developments in the region. This particular one is titled “Iran opens Hezbollah warehouses to the tribes of eastern Syria and Moscow,” and details how the IRGC’s Quds Force recently learned of an agreement between Russia and Iran, in which Hezbollah will “hand over a large portion of its old weapons to the Arab tribes in Syria in exchange for receiving new-generation Iranian weapons. Moscow will obtain a portion of the party’s weapons and ammunition to supply its costly war in Ukraine. Quds Force leader Ismail Qaani, who replaced Qasem Soleimani when he was killed by the US in 2020, recently visited both Syria and Lebanon. A “source” told Al-Jarida that they were with Qaani during this recent trip, and that Qaani agreed to help provide new weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon via Syria, “in exchange for handing over to the party a large portion of its old weapons and ammunition to arm the Arab tribes fighting for the country.” These tribes are used by Syria to threaten the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which are strong in eastern Syria, and to extend the regime’s influence. Part of the goal here, then, is to threaten the SDF – by implication, the US in Syria. The report continues: “The source explained that Russia, which now needs large quantities of weapons that give its forces firepower, regardless of their type, for use in the Ukrainian war, will obtain a quantity of these ammunition and weapons that Hezbollah has accumulated in its warehouses since the 2006 war with Israel.”
The source added that the deal could also help Moscow reach an agreement between Turkey and Syria. Turkey occupies northern Syria, and has backed the Syrian rebels, using them against the SDF.
Ankara has called the SDF “terrorists,” while continuously holding talks with Russia, the Syrian regime and Iran about normalization between Turkey and Syria. But Turkey is hesitant, it wants Damascus to “remove the Kurdish factions from the Turkish border beyond a border belt 45 kilometers deep inside Syrian territory,” according to the report. In fact, Syria already made this pledge under the Adana agreement, signed between Syria and Turkey in 1998. The report continues to say that “Ankara, Tehran and Moscow want to avoid a direct confrontation with Washington, each for its own reasons, and therefore everyone sees that the best solution is to move the Arab tribes to carry out the task of removing the SDF.” So, the recent uprising by tribes in areas near the Euphrates, which have challenged the SDF’s hold, are in fact part of a wider effort by Iran, Turkey and Russia. The report adds that Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah “had informed Qaani during their meeting in Lebanon that the confrontation with Israel had entered a new phase [focusing on] the conflict over energy sources in the eastern Mediterranean. Hezbollah needs qualitative weapons that could create a balance of deterrence with Israel.
He added that the Iranian official pledged to reach an agreement with Moscow to allow the passage of these weapons without exposing them to the risk of being exposed to the Israeli Air Force.”
This means that Hezbollah would open its warehouses of weapons, stockpiled over the last two decades, to enable the movement of those weapons to Arab tribes in Syria, not needing to travel very far. Some of these rockets, rifles, RPGs, mines and explosives are old and decaying, and Hezbollah only stands to benefit from getting rid of them. Hezbollah has an estimated 150,000 rockets and masses of weapons it illegally acquired over the decades, most of them from Iran. Russia’s benefit lies in the arms as well, as it grants Moscow cheap ammunition and shells and rockets. It is unclear how Moscow would transfer the weapons. As part of the deal, Russia, Turkey, Iran and the Syrian regime will back Arab tribes against the US-backed SDF, and Hezbollah will receive new shipments from Iran to fill its warehouses with more advanced weapons so that it can threaten Israel. This deal, if it happens or is even loosely based in reality, would benefit Hezbollah by making Moscow rely on the Iran-Hezbollah axis in Syria. In the past, reports have suggested that Moscow and Iran have not always been on the same page in Syria, and that Russia might reduce Iran’s role in Syria as part of its overall strategy. This report points to a reverse in the plays.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-761317

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 03-04/2023
Kevin McCarthy removed as US House Speaker in historic vote
The National/October 03/2023
Kevin McCarthy on Tuesday was removed from his job as speaker of the US House of Representatives after a mutiny by hard-right members of his own Republican Party, the first time in American history such an action has been taken. Mr McCarthy's removal came in a 216-210 vote. Democrats voted to remove him as a bloc and they were joined by several Republicans. The procedural "motion to vacate" vote was last brought to the House of Representatives in 1910, but the speaker was not removed at the time.
Mr McCarthy has served less than one year in the job, managing challenges from hardline Republicans amid a narrow party majority control of the chamber after last year's midterm elections. Congressman Patrick McHenry of North Carolina was appointed temporary speaker of the House. Republicans were expected to gather behind closed doors into the evening to determine next steps. Mr McCarthy was brought down by a handful of far-right Republicans who accused him of working too closely with President Joe Biden and the Democrats. Two of the seven dissenting Republican members of Congress sit on the powerful House foreign affairs Committee – Tim Burchett and Ken Buck. Joe Wilson, chairman of the Middle East subcommittee, had remained staunchly behind Mr McCarthy. "From the bottom of my heart, no," Mr Wilson said when casting his vote.
Matt Gaetz, a leading member of the group known as the Freedom Caucus, introduced the motion to force a vote on Mr McCarthy's removal in protest against the passage of a last-minute spending bill that averted a government shutdown. The caucus was furious the bill did not do enough to curb government spending. After Mr McCarthy's removal, Mr Gaetz called him "a creature of the swamp". "He has risen to power by collecting special interest money and redistributing that money in exchange for favours … We are breaking the fever and we should elect a speaker who is better." “It's a sad day,” Republican Representative Tom Cole said during the House debate, urging his colleagues not to plunge the House Republican majority "into chaos." But Mr Gaetz shot back: "Chaos is Speaker McCarthy." The Freedom Caucus also opposes sending more support to Ukraine, saying the money would be better spent in the US battling illegal immigration. The Republicans controls the House by a 221-212 majority .House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries said before the vote that Democratic leadership would vote to remove the Speaker. "It is now the responsibility of the GOP (Republican) members to end the House Republican civil war," Mr Jeffries wrote. He said that given the House Republicans' unwillingness to break away from former president Donald Trump's grip, "House Democratic leadership will vote yes on the pending motion to vacate the chair".
Mr Gaetz has been a leader of anti-McCarthy sentiment since the start of his tenure as Speaker. At the start of this year's congressional session, the Speaker only narrowly solidified support after 15 ballots, the most since the American Civil War. To gain that majority, Mr McCarthy eventually gave in to most of the procedural and policy demands of the Trump-affiliated Freedom Caucus. One measure he agreed to was allowing any individual member of Congress to call a no-confidence vote, a concession that ultimately came back to haunt him, costing him his gavel. Freedom Caucus members generally hail from “safe red” – or solidly Republican – states, giving them the political space to vote against large bipartisan deals. Almost all of the returning members voted to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, even after the deadly pro-Trump January 6, 2021, insurrection at the Capitol. Analysis from the Washington-based Brookings Institution said Mr McCarthy's concessions to this group has made, and will continue to make, his speakership harder. “Needing their votes to become Speaker, McCarthy does not appear to have demanded anything from the Freedom Caucus in return for sharing the procedural reins,” Brookings wrote in January. “Freedom Caucus members have typically lobbed bombs from the sidelines and voted against Republicans when their amendments failed.”'

Bank of Canada: Frequent price hikes by businesses contributing to sticky inflation
Financial Post Staff/October 3, 2023
Bank of Canada deputy governor Nicolas Vincent says businesses are still raising their prices more frequently and by larger amounts than they did before the pandemic, which is contributing to higher-than-expected inflation. Vincent made the comments in his first speech as deputy governor this morning to the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal. According to his prepared remarks, Vincent says the Bank of Canada believes that higher-than-expected inflation over the last year is “intimately linked” to larger and more frequent price increases from businesses. Although he notes pricing behaviour by firms has been shifting closer to normal since the beginning of the year, that progress has been slow. Recent research from the central bank shows price increases have mirrored the cost increases businesses have faced, but Vincent notes that even stable profit margins would mean customers are carrying the entire burden of higher prices. Vincent says these recent discoveries about the affect pricing behaviour may be having on inflation is leading the Bank of Canada to question the relationship between inflation and its drivers. He also said the bank isn’t finished in its fight to tame inflation.
“It is clear that we are not out of the woods yet,” he said in the speech. “We need to acknowledge that an unusual amount of uncertainty continues to cloud our view.”

Canadian House of Commons elects Liberal MP Greg Fergus as first Black Canadian Speaker
The Canadian Press/October 3, 2023
OTTAWA — Liberal member of Parliament Greg Fergus has been elected the House of Commons Speaker in a historic mid-session vote, becoming the first Black person to hold the position in Canada's Parliament. Fergus, 54, was first elected to represent the Quebec riding of Hull-Aylmer in 2015. MPs gave him a standing ovation as he was announced the winner of the vote, and members of the Liberal, NDP and Bloc Québécois caucuses shook his hand and hugged him, as did a small number of Conservative MPs. "The Speaker, to use the old hockey analogy, is nothing more than a referee," Fergus said in his first speech from the chair. "And if there's one thing I know, it's that nobody pays good money to go see the referee. They go to see the stars: you." Fergus said he wants to ensure there is decorum during the passionate, hard debates that are necessary in Parliament. "I'm going to be working hard at this, and I need all of your help to make this happen," he said, adding that he will be meeting with deputy Speakers Tuesday to discuss how to improve decorum. As is tradition, the new Speaker was "dragged" to the chair in the House of Commons by the prime minister and Opposition leader after votes were counted Tuesday afternoon. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre gave speeches congratulating Fergus and thanking him for stepping up. The election was triggered by the resignation of Anthony Rota, who stepped down last week amid international controversy over his actions during a recent visit by Ukraine's president. Rota invited a veteran who served in a Nazi unit in the Second World War to the House of Commons chamber, and asked parliamentarians and dignitaries to applaud the man as a hero. Seven people had put their names forward to take his place.Tuesday's election was considered rare because it happened mid-sitting, rather than right after an election.Liberal MPs gathered early in the morning for a caucus meeting with Trudeau to discuss the vote.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 3, 2023.

Iran's Khamenei says normalising ties with Israel is 'betting on a losing horse' - state media
DUBAI (Reuters)/October 3, 2023
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that countries seeking to normalise relations with Israel "are betting on a losing horse", state media reported on Tuesday. "The definite position of the Islamic Republic is that countries that make the gamble of normalisation with Israel will lose. They are betting on a losing horse," Khamenei said. A framework U.S.-brokered deal for forging relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia could be in place by early next year, the Israeli foreign minister said last month, after the three countries signalled progress in the complex negotiations. An Israeli-Saudi normalisation would dramatically redraw the Middle East by formally bringing together two major U.S. partners in the face of Iran - a foreign-policy flourish for President Joe Biden as he seeks reelection in late 2024.

Iran Arrests Spy Cell for Smuggling Starlink Equipment
London: Asharq Al Awsat/October 03/2023
Iran's security services arrested a “spy” cell composed of five people accused of smuggling Starlink satellite internet equipment in the city of Zahedan. They accused a prominent advisor to reformist leader Mir Hossein Mousavi and the opposition organization Mujahideen-e-Khalq (MEK) of orchestrating the operation. The agency described the five detainees as members of a spy organization cooperating with the Mujahideen-e-Khalq of Iran, the most prominent Iranian opposition faction abroad. It accused a foreign "intelligence agency" of being behind this. A few days ago, on the first anniversary of “Bloody Friday'', Iranian authorities launched a security campaign in the Sunni-majority Balochistan province. Bloody Friday, on September 30 last year, saw more than 100 demonstrators killed. Back then, the authorities cut off the Internet in Zahedan. The local "Haalvsh" website said that the authorities arrested 216 people, including 32 children, noting that the identities of 110 detainees had been confirmed. Tasnim news agency quoted "reliable sources" that a foreign intelligence agency sent some of its members several communication devices and Starlink equipment to bring back chaos in Zahedan. The agency referred to what it said was a “large-scale” plan to create chaos on the anniversary of the Zahedan unrest, noting that after all the schemes failed, the agency is trying to revive the members of the "failed project."Tasnim did not provide details or pictures of the equipment that was confiscated, nor did it mention the identity of the detainees or their place of detention. Last month, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk revealed that he received an Iranian warning after he promised to activate the firm's satellite internet service and provide satellite broadband services to Iranians. The news agency accused Ardeshir Amir Arjomand, a senior advisor to Mousavi, who has been residing in Paris since the Green Movement protests against the presidential elections 2009. It is not the first time that Iranian authorities have accused an ally of Mousavi. Last February, the Mizan Agency, affiliated with the Iranian judiciary, quoted a "security official" that Mousavi had come "under the umbrella of the opposition Mujahideen-e-Khalq." The opposition leader proposed a constitutional referendum, and in response, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said that they were trying to raise issues such as generational differences in Iran and called on Iranian officials for "unity."
The security official said that Mousavi's statement followed direct instructions from MEK. For 13 years, the Iranian authorities have imposed house arrest on Mousavi, his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, and his ally, Mehdi Karroubi, after calling on their supporters to protest the election results during which former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won a second term. Mousavi's wife issued a statement a few days ago announcing that the authorities had allowed her to shop for vegetables or visit holy places, but she rejected the proposal. She wrote in the statement: "My freedom depends on Iran's freedom."A video circulated on social media showing a banner of Mousavi's image on one of Tehran's highways, offering support to the reformist leader. A total of 570 political activists inside Iran issued a statement last week warning of the "gradual death" of Mousavi, his wife, and Karoubi as their house arrest continues.

Four Karabakh leaders held in Azerbaijan, three more reach Armenia - agencies
(Reuters) Tue, October 3, 2023
Four ex-leaders of Azerbaijan's formerly ethnic Armenian-controlled region of Nagorno-Karabakh have been detained by Azerbaijan's State Security Service and taken to the capital Baku, the state-run Azerbaijani Press Agency (APA) reported on Tuesday.
However, three other former leaders of Karabakh have arrived safely in Armenia, the Armenian state news agency Armenpress quoted one of the three as saying. Azerbaijan took control of Nagorno-Karabakh after three decades in a lightning military operation on Sept. 20, and vowed to prosecute the "criminal" separatist leadership, who it said had poisoned the minds of the population. Almost all the 120,000 or so inhabitants of Karabakh have since fled to Armenia, fearing for their safety. But Azerbaijan has arrested Ruben Vardanyan, a former head of Karabakh's government, and Levon Mnatsakanyan, former commander of Nagorno-Karabakh's separatist army, at border checkpoints. On Tuesday, APA said three former self-styled presidents of Nagorno-Karabakh, Arkady Gukasyan, Bako Sahakyan and Araik Arutyunyan, as well as ex-parliamentary speaker David Ishkhanyan, had been arrested. However, former state minister Artur Arutyunyan, ex-interior minister Karen Sarkisyan and the former head of Karabakh's security service, Ararat Melkunyan, all entered Armenia on Tuesday, Artur Arutyunyan said, according to Armenpress. Karabakh is viewed internationally as part of Azerbaijan but had been run as a breakaway ethnic Armenian statelet since the 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

French Minister Heads to Armenia to Boost Bilateral Support
Asharq Al Awsat/October 03/2023
France's foreign minister travels to Armenia on Tuesday to assess the country's urgent needs as it faces a flux of refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh and the risk of Azerbaijani military operations on its territory, diplomats said. The Nagorno-Karabakh issue is a delicate subject in Paris. A week after Baku took control of the enclave forcing more than 100,000 people to flee, lawmakers from all political spectrums have attacked the government for not doing enough to help the ethnic Armenians. Many fear that a soft position on Nagorno-Karabakh could see Paris abandoning Armenia should the Azeris decide to go beyond its borders. France's population includes between 400,000 to 600,000 people of Armenian origin, a powerful lobby group during election periods. "There is a bilateral aspect, of political relations obviously, to strengthen Armenia, whose isolation everyone can see," said a French diplomatic source briefing reporters ahead Catherine Colonna's arrival in the Armenian capital Yerevan. France, along with its Western allies, fear that Armenia and its existing government could waiver after its historical military ally, Russia, appeared to abandon it over the last few weeks. Paris has already provided 12.5 million euros in humanitarian aid and its Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu said on Saturday that Paris was ready to provide military assistance depending on Yerevan's needs. French officials have also backed the idea of imposing EU sanctions on Baku, but admit that there is a reluctance among several member states to do so just a year after the bloc agreed a major energy deal to replace Russian supplies. Discussions are ongoing in Brussels. In the meantime, French officials said they would work to beef up a civilian European mission alongside the border as part of efforts to deter Baku from considering further military action. "Armenia needs security guarantees. If any country can provide it, whether it's the UK, France, the US, it's extremely important," said a senior Armenian diplomat ahead of Colonna's visit, the first by a Western minister since the Azeri operation.

UN team in Nagorno-Karabakh did not see any damage to hospitals, schools
UNITED NATIONS (Reuters)/Mon, October 2, 2023
A United Nations team visiting Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan did not see any damage to civilian infrastructure such as hospitals, schools and housing or to cultural and religious sites, U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said on Monday. The team on Sunday visited the Karabakh capital known as Stepanakert by Armenia and Khankendi by Azerbaijan. The visit came weeks after Azerbaijani forces took control of the enclave on its territory populated by ethnic Armenians, triggering an exodus of more than 100,000 Armenians. "Our colleagues were struck by the sudden manner in which the local population fled their homes and the suffering that the experience must have caused them," Dujarric told reporters. "They did not come across any reports – either from the local population or from others - of violence against civilians following the latest ceasefire," he said. "No destruction of agricultural infrastructure or dead animals were seen by members of the U.N. team." Armenia has accused Azerbaijan of ethnic cleansing - a charge denied by Baku, which has insisted the enclave's Armenians were welcome to remain in the territory. Baku has also insisted it has no intention of attacking Armenia itself.
Armenia urged the European Union on Monday to sanction Azerbaijan for its military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh enclave and warned that Baku could soon attack Armenia itself unless the West takes firm action. The U.N. mission aimed to assess the situation on the ground and identify humanitarian needs of both people remaining and those on the move, Dujarric said, adding that community representatives told U.N. officials "between 50 and 1,000 ethnic Armenians remain currently in Karabakh."Dujarric said no shops seemed to be open in the city and that Azerbaijan was preparing to resume health services and some basic utilities in the city. "The team stresses the need to rebuild trust and confidence, adding this will require time and effort from all sides," Dujarric said. "The U.N. plans to continue to regularly visit the region."

Armenia's parliament votes to join the International Criminal Court, straining ties with ally Russia
YEREVAN, Armenia (AP)/October 3, 2023
Armenia's parliament voted Tuesday to join the International Criminal Court, a move that further strains the country's ties with its old ally Russia after the court issued an arrest warrant for President Vladimir Putin over events in Ukraine. Moscow last month called Yerevan's effort to join the the ICC an “unfriendly step," and the Russian Foreign Ministry summoned Armenia's ambassador. Countries that have signed and ratified the Rome Statute that created the ICC are bound to arrest Putin, who was indicted for war crimes connected to the deportation of children from Ukraine, if he sets foot on their soil.
Armenian officials have argued the move has nothing to do with Russia and was prompted by Azerbaijan's aggression against the country. Lawmakers voted to ratify the Rome Statute by a vote of 60-22. Armenia's president must sign off on the decision, which will come into force 60 days after the vote. Armenia's relations with Russia have frayed significantly in recent years. In 2020, Moscow brokered a deal that ended a six-week war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It mandated that Yerevan cede to Baku large swaths of territory in and around Nagorno-Karabakh, a part of Azerbaijan with a predominantly Armenian population. Russia then sent some 2,000 peacekeepers to the tumultuous region and Armenia has accused the troops of failing to prevent recent hostilities by Azerbaijan that led to Baku taking full control of the region. The Kremlin, in turn, has accused Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of precipitating the fall of Nagorno-Karabakh by acknowledging Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over the region. Moscow also blames Yerevan for damaging ties with Russia by embracing the West, including hosting U.S. troops for joint military drills. It remains unclear whether Pashinyan might take Armenia out of Moscow-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization, a group of several former Soviet nations, and other Russia-led alliances. Armenia also hosts a Russian military base and Russian border guards help patrol Armenia’s frontier with Turkey.

Russia says 335,000 sign up to fight, no plans for new mobilisation
Guy Faulconbridge/MOSCOW (Reuters)/October 3, 2023
Russia has no plans for an additional mobilisation of men to fight in Ukraine as more than 335,000 have signed up so far this year to fight in the armed forces or voluntary units, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday. Russia has been bolstering its armed forces and ramping up weapons production in the expectation of a long war in Ukraine, where front lines have barely shifted for a year. "There are no plans for an additional mobilisation," Shoigu was shown telling top generals on state television. "The armed forces have the necessary number of military personnel to conduct the special military operation."
Shoigu, an ally of President Vladimir Putin, hailed the patriotism of those who had signed up. "Since the start of the year, more than 335,000 people have entered military service under contract and in volunteer formations," Shoigu said. "In September alone, more than 50,000 citizens signed contracts."
Those figures indicate that Russia has made significant progress both in signing recruits and in absorbing many fighters from the Wagner mercenary force into "voluntary formations". Putin ordered a "partial mobilisation" of 300,000 reservists in September last year, prompting hundreds of thousands of young men to flee Russia to avoid being sent to fight. Putin has repeatedly said there is no need to repeat the mobilisation, which some Russian officials say was a mistake as it prompted so many to leave.
LONG WAR?
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 unleashed a war that has devastated swathes of eastern and southern Ukraine, killed or injured hundreds of thousands of men and triggered the biggest rupture in Russia's ties with the West for six decades. Putin says he is fighting a Western alliance waging a proxy war to diminish Russia politically and militarily, while Western leaders say their economic sanctions and their military backing for Ukraine are a direct response to Moscow's aggression. But the future course of the war is uncertain, despite predictions by U.S. officials earlier this year that Russia's defeat on the battlefields of Ukraine would pierce Putin's hubris.While Ukraine was able to win back territory last year from Russia in attacks which humiliated the Russian armed forces, this year has been different. In the month to Sept. 26, Russia took 31 square miles while Ukraine took 16 square miles, according to the Belfer Center at the Harvard Kennedy School. The declared war aims of both sides appear ambitious: Ukraine says it will eject every last Russian soldier from Ukraine while Russia says it will demilitarise Ukraine. Mark Milley, who retired last month as U.S. chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, told CNN last month that the fight would be long, hard and bloody as Russia had well over 200,000 men in Ukraine. "What I said months ago was it's going to be long, hard, bloody because the nature of this particular fight and the type of defense that the Russians put in," Milley said. Milley said that the Ukrainian aim to kick all the Russians out of Ukraine would "take a long time. That's going to be very significant effort over a considerable amount of time." "I can tell you that it will take a considerable length of time to militarily eject all 200,000-plus Russian troops out of Russian-occupied Ukraine. That's a very high bar. It's going to take a long time to do it," Milley said. While the Kremlin expects the United States to continue to support Ukraine with tens of billions of dollars in security assistance, Putin is betting on Western fatigue over the war. "We have repeatedly said before that according to our forecasts fatigue from this conflict, fatigue from the completely absurd sponsorship of the Kyiv regime, will grow in various countries, including the United States," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday.

Biden Tries to Reassure Allies of Continued US Support for Ukraine after Congress Drops Aid Request
Asharq Al Awsat/October 03/2023
President Joe Biden spoke Tuesday with US allies and partners to coordinate future support for Ukraine after Congress passed — and he signed — legislation that kept the US government funded but dropped his request for billions of dollars to help Ukraine in its fight against Russia. The White House announced that Biden had convened the call but provided no details of the discussion. Poland's President Andrzej Duda said afterward that Biden had assured the group of continued US support for Ukraine and of his strong conviction that Congress will not walk away. “Everyone took the floor. The main subject was Ukraine, the situation in Ukraine," Duda said at a news conference in Kielce, Poland. “President Joe Biden began with telling us about the situation in the US and what is the real political situation around Ukraine. He assured us that there is backing for the continuing support for Ukraine, first of all for the military support. He said that he will get that backing in the Congress.”Duda said Biden assured the leaders that support for Ukraine in the US Congress is much broader than media reports suggest. He said Biden called on the participants to continue their support for Ukraine and that everyone assured him that they would. "All of us, leaders, we are determined to continue supporting Ukraine,” said Duda, whose country shares a border with Ukraine. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on social media that it was a “Good call with #NATO leaders hosted by @POTUS,” using the acronym for president of the United States. “As Russia continues its brutal war, we are all committed to supporting #Ukraine for as long as it takes,” Stoltenberg pledged. Others joining Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the call were the leaders of Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, Romania, Britain, the European Commission and the European Council. France’s foreign minister also participated, the White House said. French President Emmanuel Macron was not available due to scheduling issues, according to a US administration official.
Duda said the leaders also discussed plans for rebuilding Ukraine.
"Everyone was saying that this is the next step that will be necessary and for which preparations should begin now,” he said. Biden had sought in public comments on Sunday, hours after he signed a bill to fund US government operations through mid-November, to reassure allies of continued US financial support for Ukraine's effort to counter Russia's military aggression. But he warned that time was running out and urged Congress to negotiate a new aid package quickly. “We cannot under any circumstances allow America’s support for Ukraine to be interrupted,” Biden said at the White House after Congress averted a government shutdown by passing a short-term funding bill late Saturday that stripped out assistance for Ukraine. “We have time, not much time, and there’s an overwhelming sense of urgency,” Biden said, noting that funding in the bill will run out in mid-November.
“The vast majority of both parties — Democrats and Republicans, Senate and House — support helping Ukraine and the brutal aggression that is being thrust upon them by Russia,” Biden said. “Stop playing games, get this done.’’But many lawmakers acknowledge that winning approval for Ukraine assistance in Congress is growing as Republican resistance to the aid has gained momentum as the war continues. While Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., has begun a process to potentially consider legislation providing additional Ukraine aid, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., faces a more difficult task in keeping the commitment he made over the objections of nearly half of his GOP majority. McCarthy signaled over the weekend that he supports linking new Ukraine funding to security improvements at the US border with Mexico. The latest actions in Congress signal a gradual shift in the unwavering support that the United States has so far pledged to Ukraine in its fight against Russia, and is one of the clearest examples yet of the Republican Party’s movement toward a more isolationist stance. The exclusion of money for Ukraine came little more than a week after lawmakers met in the Capitol with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He sought to assure them that his military was winning the war, but stressed that additional assistance would be crucial. Voting in the House last week pointed to the potential trouble ahead. Nearly half of House Republicans voted to cut from a defense spending bill $300 million to train Ukrainian soldiers and buy weapons. The money later was approved separately, but opponents of Ukraine support celebrated their growing numbers. The US has approved four rounds of aid to Ukraine in response to Russia’s invasion, totaling about $113 billion, with some of that money going toward replenishment of US military equipment that was sent to the front lines. In August, Biden called on Congress to provide for an additional $24 billion.

Putin will not 'make concessions' as Russia appears to be preparing for 'multiple further years' of war in Ukraine, international affairs expert says
Alia Shoaib/Business Insider/October 3, 2023
Russia is planning to increase its defense spending by 30%, leaked documents show, per UK intel. This suggests that Moscow is preparing for the war in Ukraine to carry on for years. Observers believe that Russia is hoping Western support for Ukraine will wane.
Russia is planning to dramatically increase its defense spending, suggesting it is preparing for the war in Ukraine to carry on for years, the UK Ministry of Defence said in an intelligence update on Sunday. Moscow is planning to increase its defense spending by up to around 30% of total public expenditure in 2024, documents "apparently leaked" by Russia's Finance Ministry suggest. The proposed budget of 10.8 trillion rubles marks a 68% increase from 2023, and would total approximately 6% of the country's GDP, the Ministry of Defence said, adding that the move would likely be "at the expense of the wider economy." The move echoes recent comments made by Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, who said there was a plan to increase the supply of modern weapons to the military by 2025. "We continue to build up the combat power of the Armed Forces, including through supplies of modern weapons and improving the training of troops taking into account the experience of a special military operation," Shoigu said, per Russian news agency Interfax.Nina Khrushcheva, a professor of International Affairs at The New School in New York City, told the BBC that Putin is "not going to give up. He's not going to waver, he's not going to blink, he's not going to make concessions." She said that the Russian president was "waiting it out" in the hope that Western support of Ukraine would waver. The US and other Western allies have been supporting Ukraine throughout the conflict by sending crucial aid and weapons. However, a number of politicians in the US, particularly in the Republican party, have been increasingly critical of the amount of spending on Ukraine. There have been growing fears among European allies that if a hardline Republican candidate, such as current frontrunner Donald Trump, were to win the presidential election in 2024, aid to Ukraine would take a significant cut.Trump has repeatedly said that if elected he would end the war within 24 hours — without elaborating on how he would do that. He has also been unclear about how much he would support Ukraine. Michael McFaul, the former US Ambassador to Russia under President Barack Obama, said in August that Russian President Vladimir Putin was likely biding his time until after the election. "Obviously, Putin is waiting for the outcome of the U.S. 2024 presidential election," he said. "If Trump is reelected, Putin has reason to believe that he could strike a much better deal on Ukraine."

India tells Canada to remove 41 of its 62 diplomats in the country, an official says
TORONTO (AP)/October 3, 2023
India has told Canada to remove 41 of its 62 diplomats in the country, an official familiar with the matter said Tuesday, ramping up a confrontation between the two countries over Canadian accusations that India may have been involved in the killing of a Sikh separatist leader in suburban Vancouver. The official spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak publicly ahead of public reaction from the Canadian government later Tuesday. The official confirmed an earlier report from the Financial Times. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stood up in Parliament last week and said there were “credible allegations” of Indian involvement in the slaying of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a 45-year-old Sikh leader who was killed by masked gunmen in June in Surrey, outside Vancouver. For years, India has said Nijjar, a Canadian citizen born in India, has links to terrorism, an allegation Nijjar denied. Arranging the killing of a Canadian citizen in Canada, home to nearly 2 million people of Indian descent, would be unprecedented. India has accused Canada for years of giving free rein to Sikh separatists, including Nijjar. India has also canceled visas for Canadians. Canada has not retaliated for that. India also previously expelled a senior Canadian diplomat after Canada expelled a senior Indian diplomat. The latest expulsions by India have escalated tensions between the countries. Trudeau had frosty encounters with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during this month’s Group of 20 meeting in New Delhi, and a few days later, Canada canceled a trade mission to India planned for the fall. Nijjar, a plumber, was also a leader in what remains of a once-strong movement to create an independent Sikh homeland, known as Khalistan. A bloody decadelong Sikh insurgency shook north India in the 1970s and 1980s, until it was crushed in a government crackdown in which thousands of people were killed, including prominent Sikh leaders. The Khalistan movement has lost much of its political power but still has supporters in the Indian state of Punjab, as well as in the sizable overseas Sikh diaspora. While the active insurgency ended years ago, the Indian government has warned repeatedly that Sikh separatists were trying to make a comeback.

Türkiye Detains Nearly 1,000, Including Alleged Kurdish Militants, Following Suicide Bomb Attack
Asharq Al Awsat/October 03/2023
Police detained almost a thousand people in raids across Türkiye on Tuesday, including dozens with alleged links to Kurdish militants and an opposition news anchor, days after a suicide bomb attack in the Turkish capital. Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya said police carried out raids in 16 Turkish provinces, detaining 55 people suspected of being part of the “intelligence structure” of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK. At least 12 other suspected PKK members were rounded up in a separate operation in five provinces, Yerlikaya wrote on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter. The PKK claimed responsibility for the suicide attack, according to a news website close to the group. The group has led a decades-long insurgency in Türkiye and is considered a terror organization by the United States and the European Union. Tens of thousands of people have died since the start of the conflict in 1984. A 73-year-old news anchor was also detained Tuesday after questioning details of the official account of the attack on opposition broadcaster Halk TV. Aysenur Arslan was detained in her home after prosecutors accused her of “terrorist propaganda” and “praising criminal activity” for comments made during her television program on Monday morning. Press freedoms in Türkiye have eroded during President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ’s tenure, according to international monitors. Much of the media has oriented itself to support Erdogan, while the few broadcasters that regularly criticize his policies are hit with fines or blackouts by the Turkish media watchdog RTUK. Türkiye ranked 149th out of 180 countries in press freedom index of Reporters Without Borders (RSF) in 2022. The interior minister later said that an additional 928 people suspected of holding unlicensed firearms or being connected to firearms smuggling were arrested during the operation, but he did not immediately make it clear if the suspects arrested for illegal firearms were suspected of connections to the PKK. He added that over 840 firearms were confiscated during the operation. On Sunday, a suicide bomber detonated an explosive device near an entrance to the Interior Ministry hours before Erdogan was set to address Parliament as it returned from its summer recess. A second would-be bomber was killed in a shootout with police. Two police officers were slightly wounded in the attack. The suspects arrived at the scene inside a vehicle they seized from a veterinarian in the central Turkish of Kayseri after shooting him in the head, officials said. Turkish authorities identified one of the assailants as a PKK militant. Hours later, Türkiye’s Air Force carried out airstrikes on suspected PKK sites in northern Iraq, where the group's leadership is based. The Defense Ministry said a large number of PKK militants were “neutralized” in the strikes.
Yerlikaya did not clarify whether the people rounded up on Tuesday were suspected of direct involvement in Sunday’s attack.

Iraq: Head of Mosul Diocese Calls for Int’l Probe into Wedding Hall Fire
Baghdad: Fadhel al-Nashmi/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 03/2023
The Syriac Catholic Archbishop of Mosul, Benedictus Younan Hanno, described the results of an investigation announced by the Interior Ministry on a fire at a wedding hall in Al-Hamdaniya as “shameful,” questioning the measures taken by the government authorities in dismissing some heads of the directorates of the district. Scores of panicked guests surged for the exits last week in the Haitham Royal Wedding Hall in the predominantly Christian area of Hamdaniya in Nineveh province after the ceiling panels above a pyrotechnic machine burst into flames. Iraq released the results of its probe on Sunday saying unsafe fireworks were the main reason that caused the deadly fire. On Monday, the Nineveh Heath Department updated the death toll to 113, including 41 who have not been identified yet. It said 12 people who suffered severe burns were sent for treatment abroad and eight will follow. In a press conference on Sunday evening, the archbishop rejected the outcome of the probe, saying: “There are things that don’t make sense in this investigation... I feel that there are political conspiracies behind these dismissals.”Some reports indicated that most of the sacked employees belonged to the Christian community and other minorities. Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that some “armed groups close to the Catholic Church fear that the fire will be used as a pretext to settle scores and dismiss local Christian officials in favor of their opponents from other sects and minorities.”Hanno called for “an international investigation based on clear facts and strategy.” He continued: “We are with the state in expelling any corrupt manager with evidence and documents. But we give the authorities 24 hours to withdraw this decision and take matters seriously.”The investigative committee formed by the federal authorities recommended the dismissal of the mayor of Hamdaniya, the town’s municipal director, the director of tourism classification in Nineveh Governorate, the director of Hamdaniya Electricity and the director of the Fire and Safety Directorate in the Civil Defense Directorate in Nineveh, as well as the referral of the director of civil defense in the governorate to a specialized committee. On Saturday, the head of the investigation committee, Major General Saad Al-Dulaimi, said that the venue was overcrowded, and roofed with flammable sandwich panels and decorations made from flammable materials. “The committee noticed that there were no emergency doors other than the small and insufficient service doors, and no safety supplies, which led to a large fire and heavy losses among the people in the hall,” he stated.

Saudi football team refuses to play in Iran over busts of Soleimani
Associated Press/October 03/2023
A Saudi football team refused to play a match in Iran on Monday because of the presence of busts of a slain Iranian general placed on the sidelines, Saudi state media reported. The Saudi Al Ittihad club was scheduled to play Iran's Sepahan in the the Asian Champions League, one of several matches made possible by a recent diplomatic rapprochement between the longtime Mideast rivals that has recently come under strain. The Saudi team did not take to the field because of busts of Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who commanded Iran's elite Quds Force before he was killed in a U.S. drone strike in neighboring Iraq in January 2020, and other political banners, Saudi Arabia's Al Ekhbariya TV reported. Soleimani was seen as playing a key role in arming, training and leading armed groups across the region, including fighters from the Houthi rebel group in Yemen. Saudi Arabia has been at war with the Iran-aligned rebels in Yemen since 2015. Three busts of Soleimani had been placed along the sidelines for the teams to walk past on their way out of the tunnel. After around 30 minutes of delay, the Saudi Arabian champion team, which had selected stars such as N'Golo Kante and Fabinho, signed from Chelsea and Liverpool respectively in the summer, left the Naghsh-e-Jahan Stadium where an estimated 60,000 fans were waiting. Videos circulating on social media appeared to show angry Iranian fans chanting that politics should be kept out of football. Iranian media reported that the busts of Soleimani had been placed there three years ago, and that Al Ittihad had practiced in the stadium on Sunday. Al Ekhbariya later ran footage of the Saudi team at the Isfahan airport, saying they were headed home. The league said the Group C match was cancelled "due to unanticipated and unforeseen circumstances," without elaborating.
"The AFC reiterates its commitment towards ensuring the safety and security of the players, match officials, spectators, and all stakeholders involved. This matter will now be referred to the relevant committees," it said in a statement.
There was no official comment from Saudi Arabia or Iran.
Iran's ruling clerics and their supporters hail Soleimani as a hero because of his leading role in military operations against the United States, the Islamic State group and other perceived enemies. Iran launched a barrage of missiles at U.S. bases in Iraq after he was killed, and has vowed to take further actions to avenge his death. As well as the insurgents in Yemen, Soleimani also aided Shiite militias in Iraq, the Lebanese Hezbollah, and fighters in Syria and the Palestinian territories. Western nations considered Soleimani a terrorist who sowed instability across the region. The football tournament, which features 40 teams from around Asia, is the first since 2015 to see Saudi Arabian and Iranian teams play home and away games on each other's soil. After diplomatic relations between Tehran and Riyadh were broken in 2016, games usually took place in neutral venues.
Iranian fans had thrilled at the arrival of Cristiano Ronaldo and other football stars who have been drawn to Saudi clubs over the past year by lavish contracts. The two countries, which have long backed opposite sides in the region's conflicts, restored diplomatic relations earlier this year in an agreement brokered by China. That raised hopes that the devastating war in Yemen, which has been winding down in recent years, might finally come to an end. But tensions rose again last week after an attack blamed on the Houthi rebels killed four soldiers who were patrolling Saudi Arabia's southern border with Yemen. The soldiers were from Bahrain, a close Saudi ally, and Bahrain blamed the Houthis, who have not publicly acknowledged the attack. Yemen's war began in 2014 when the Houthis swept down from their northern stronghold and seized the capital, Sanaa, along with much of the north. A Saudi-led coalition intervened in 2015 to try to restore the internationally recognized government to power. The fighting soon devolved into a stalemated proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, causing widespread hunger and misery in Yemen, which even before the conflict had been the Arab world's poorest country. The war has killed more than 150,000 people, including fighters and civilians, and created one of the world's worst humanitarian disasters, killing tens of thousands more. Last month, Saudi Arabia welcomed a Houthi delegation for peace talks, saying the negotiations had "positive results." A U.N.-brokered cease-fire that took effect in April 2022 largely halted the violence, and the relative calm continued even after it expired last October.

Sissi confirms he will run for new term in upcoming presidential elections
Associated Press/October 03/2023
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi has confirmed he will run for a new term in elections scheduled for December, entering the race as the clear favorite and as his government wrestles with rising inflation and mounting debt. Egypt will hold a presidential election over three days on December 10-12, with a runoff on Jan. 8-10 if no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote. El-Sissi confirmed his candidacy at the end of a three-day national conference called the "Story of Homeland" attended by the country's leading politicians and broadcast by Egypt's Extra News television channel, which has close ties to Egyptian security agencies. "I have decided to nominate myself to you to complete the dream of a new presidential term," el-Sissi said as the conference's attendees cheered and clapped. A handful of politicians have already announced their bids to run for the country's highest post, but none poses a serious challenge to el-Sissi, who has ruled the country since 2014 and has faced criticism from the West over his country's human rights record. Among the challengers is Ahmed Altantawy, a former lawmaker and critic of the current government. Extra News showed thousands of el-Sissi's supporters gathered on the streets of Cairo on Monday evening, with many waving Egyptian flags. As the conference neared its end, several parliamentarians present stood up and called on el-Sissi to offer his candidacy. "I promise you, god willing, that it will be an extension of our common quest for the sake of Egypt and its people," el-Sissi said. El-Sissi, a former defense minister, led the military overthrow of an elected but divisive Islamist president in 2013 amid street protests against his one-year rule. Since then, authorities have launched a major crackdown on dissent. Thousands of government critics have been silenced or jailed, mainly Islamists but also many prominent secular activists, including many of those behind the 2011 uprising that toppled longtime autocrat Hosni Mubarak. He was first elected in 2014 and reelected in 2018 for a second four-year term. Constitutional amendments, passed in a referendum in 2019, added two years to his second term, and allowed him to run for a third, six-year term. Egypt has been hit hard from years of austerity, and more recently, the fallout from the war in Ukraine, with its pound losing more than 50% of its value against the dollar in the last 18 months. The country is the world's largest wheat importer and has traditionally imported most of its grain from eastern Europe. Over the three-day conference el-Sissi touted the government's plans and projects, while repeatedly demanding that Egyptians must make sacrifices as price hikes continue. "Don't you Egyptians dare say you would rather eat than build and progress," el-Sissi said Sunday. "If the price of the nation's progress and prosperity is to go hungry and thirsty, then let us not eat or drink."

Tunisia rejects EU funds, says they fall short of deal for migration
Associated Press/October 03/2023
Tunisia has announced it would reject an installment of funds sent by Europe to help the debt-ridden country patrol the Mediterranean Sea as migrant boat crossings spike to levels not seen in several years. President Kais Saied on Monday accused the European Union of not following through on agreements made earlier this year to help Tunisia patrol its border, curb smuggling and balance its federal budget. Though he called the disbursement "a small amount," Saied said the decision was less about its size and more about how it "lacks respect." "The treasures of the world are not equal to a single grain of our sovereignty in the eyes of our people," Saied said in a statement published on TAP, the country's official press arm. "Tunisia, which accepts cooperation, does not accept anything that resembles charity or handouts."European representatives have not commented on Tunisia's rejection. The funds are one component of a broad agreement that the EU and Saied brokered in Rome in July to funnel more than 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) to Tunisia. That agreement included a pledge of 105 million euros ($110 million) earmarked for migration. Tunisia has emerged as one of this year's primary launching points for migrants — including many escaping war and poverty — seeking to reach Europe. The majority of 127,000 migrants who had arrived in Italy this year landed on Lampedusa, a small island closer to North Africa than the Italian mainland. As numerous steel boats carrying migrants arrived on the island last month, the European Commission announced it would send an initial 127 million euros ($133 million) to Tunisia. More than half of those funds was designated for migration — to fight smuggling, support Tunisian law enforcement and facilitate the return of migrants to their countries of origin. Though supporters, including Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni, have hailed the agreement as a regional model, Germany and other critics questioned its efficacy and worry it amounts to bankrolling Saied's government as Tunisia's economy flails and political opponents are jailed. Since taking power in 2019, Saied has repeatedly characterized sub-Saharan African migrants as violent and a threat to Tunisia. Though he has shrugged off accusations of anti-Black racism, the remarks have coincided with a rise in anti-Black violence in Tunisia and garnered widespread condemnation, including from trade partners and the World Bank. Saied has previously said that he has no intention of turning Tunisia into Europe's border guard and bristled at proposals to allow sub-Saharan African migrants expelled from Europe to resettle in Tunisia. The rejection of funds comes less than a month after Tunisia barred entry of European Parliament delegates attempting to visit the country, saying it wouldn't allow interference into its internal politics.

Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 03-04/2023
Small steps to a Saudi-Israel ‘mega-deal’...But Washington shouldn’t pursue comprehensive Middle East peace at the expense of localized wins
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/ Asia Times/October 03/2023
US President Joe Biden’s Middle East strategy is earning its nickname: the “de-escalation” doctrine. Washington has in recent months gone out of its way to strike mini-agreements with its enemy, Tehran, and brokered a maritime demarcation deal between Israel and Hezbollah-controlled Lebanon.
But when it comes to peace between Arab Gulf states and Israel, the Biden administration expects nothing less than a comprehensive “mega-deal.”
The earliest signs of Saudi-Israeli normalization championed by Biden came in January, through a Saudi trial balloon floated on background by a credible American source. The source described Saudi officials outlining their national priorities as follows: a well-defined Saudi-US military alliance, de-politicized US arms sales to Saudi Arabia, and a nuclear program that includes enrichment of uranium.
In return for Washington’s concessions, Riyadh would sign a deal with Israel that didn’t condition their relationship on the state of play between Palestinians and Israelis.
A closer look showed that the Saudis were in effect seeking to amend the US Democratic Party’s policy on Iran. The Saudi nuclear demand would reopen the discussion on non-proliferation in the Middle East.
By requesting its own domestic uranium enrichment, the kingdom was in effect challenging the license given to Tehran to enrich uranium under the Iran nuclear deal. Like other countries, Iran could run its civilian nuclear program by importing enriched uranium, not by milling it in-house. Enriching uranium at home could make it easier to build a nuclear weapon eventually.
The Saudi proposal went against Biden’s “regional integration” strategy for the Middle East, which has as its cornerstone the appeasement of Tehran under the pretext that the only alternatives are a nuclear Iran or war. In response, the administration stretched the definition of regional integration to include Saudi-Israeli normalization.
Democrats who craft Biden’s foreign policy rarely cheered for the Abraham Accords of peace between the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, on one hand, and Israel, on the other.
In fact, it took Secretary of State Antony Blinken eight months in office before he mentioned the deal, and when he finally did – on September 17, 2021 – Reuters reported that the “administration until now has been cool to the idea of commemorating the anniversary of the US-brokered accords.”
While Biden’s diplomats shuttle back and forth, a series of unprecedented developments have taken place in recent weeks. In late September, Israeli Tourism Minister Haim Katz participated in a UN tourism conference in Riyadh, while the Saudi non-resident ambassador to Palestine, Nayef al-Sudairi, visited Ramallah – the first visit by a Saudi delegation to the West Bank since 1967.
Saudi Arabia also announced its acceptance of US-standard safeguards for its nascent nuclear program, thus making a “mega-deal” much easier.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman even told Fox News that his country was getting closer to normalization with Israel by the day. Hours later, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu predicted that the world is “at the cusp of … [a] dramatic breakthrough – an historic peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia.”
US national security adviser Jake Sullivan had told reporters not to expect “any imminent breakthrough or action [on] normalization.” Along similar lines, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas later warned that no “peace can prevail in the Middle East without the Palestinian people enjoying their full, legitimate, and national rights.”
Arab withholding of peace was designed to decimate Israel in 1948 and to give Palestinians leverage to build their state on 1967 territory starting in December 1973. But there’s no amount of Arab leverage that can replace the Palestinian will and ability to build a state.
One lesson from the Iraq war and the Arab Spring is that it’s easy to break states, but hard to replace them. Palestinians’ inability to govern themselves was on display after Israel’s unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in 2005.
It didn’t take long before the Palestinians plunged into civil war, resulting in a schism between the Palestinian Authority, which supports a two-state solution, and Islamist Hamas, which refuses any kind of recognition of Israel.
In 2005, Palestinians failed the test of governing. Israel, therefore, cannot trust them with its security and isn’t about to hand them any part of the only remaining disputed territory – Area C of the West Bank.
The Biden administration should be lauded for reversing earlier positions on Saudi Arabia and engaging in shuttle diplomacy for Saudi normalization with Israel. But the administration seems to underestimate how much heavy lifting Palestinians must do to make peace with Israel happen.
Washington shouldn’t pursue comprehensive peace at the expense of localized wins. Perhaps smaller peace agreements will help foster a mega-deal that includes the Palestinians, just like the Biden team believes that de-escalation deals across the region are better than holding out until peace sweeps through the entire Middle East.
*Hussain Abdul-Hussain is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy. X: @hahussain

Israel has much to gain from an agreement with Saudi Arabia - opinion
Elie Podeh/Jerusalem Post/October 03/2023
An agreement with the Arab world’s most important state, which also plays a central role in the Islamic world, could serve as an impetus for other Arab and Muslim countries to follow its lead.
The recent remarks by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) in a Fox News interview that “every day we are getting closer” to an agreement with Israel, which he called “the biggest historical deal since the end of the Cold War,” seem to reinforce the assessment that an agreement is no longer a question of if – but when. However, quite a few potholes remain to be filled first. Saudi Arabia has traditionally implemented its foreign policy in measured steps. Looking back, one can identify six stages in the Kingdom’s relations with Israel. The first stage, at least since the 1990s, saw ties built clandestinely through the Mossad and the Saudi ambassador to Washington, Bandar bin Sultan, with Jewish leaders.
The second phase consisted of indirect public diplomacy, as exemplified by the 2002 Saudi Peace Initiative (adopted by the Arab League and known since as the Arab Peace Initiative). It offered Arab recognition of Israel in exchange for the establishment of a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, with east Jerusalem as its capital. Regrettably, Israel rejected the offer.
The third phase began after the 2006 Second Lebanon War, with both sides identifying Iran and Hezbollah as common enemies and undertaking direct secret meetings to shore up their defenses against them. That same year, then-prime minister Ehud Olmert, accompanied by Mossad chief Meir Dagan, met in Jordan with Prince Bandar bin Sultan Al Saud (at that time head of the Saudi National Security Council). Dagan reportedly visited Saudi Arabia in 2010 – and all his successors appear to have done so, as well.
The fourth stage consisted of public diplomacy, including meetings between former military and intelligence officials from both sides who are known to represent incumbent officeholders, as well as positive mentions of Israel in the print and electronic media.
Creeping public normalization measures ushered in the fifth stage. These included allowing Air India planes to fly over Saudi territory on their way to Israel and subsequently allowing Israeli passenger aircraft to overfly Saudi airspace – and Israeli athletes to compete in Saudi-hosted international tournaments, and more. In the current sixth stage, Saudi Arabia has switched to overt official diplomacy, though not directly with Israel but through the United States. This stage is characterized by an unprecedented diplomatic offensive. In the Palestinian arena, for example, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and other senior officials have visited Riyadh in recent months to present their position on a possible agreement with Israel, and a non-resident Saudi ambassador was appointed to the PA and visited Ramallah.
In the global arena, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farrakhan, together with the foreign ministers of Egypt and Jordan, led an extraordinary meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly with the participation of no less than 50 foreign ministers, including from countries that do not recognize Israel such as Algeria, Kuwait, and Qatar.
The event was aimed at promoting the two-state solution based on the Arab Peace Initiative and building a “peace package” that will be offered to Israel and the Palestinians. The diplomatic campaign also included MBS’s rare interview with an American network (Fox) and the participation of senior Israeli officials, including a government minister, in Saudi-hosted international conferences. The Saudis link normalization to three issues. The first is an alliance with the US to ensure American protection against a possible Iranian attack. Israel should have no problem accepting such a demand, which would also strengthen Israeli-Saudi security ties. However, Israel has an interest in ensuring that the supply of advanced American weapons to Saudi Arabia does not erode its qualitative military edge in the region. The second issue concerns the acquisition of nuclear capability for civilian purposes. Israel could accept this demand if Saudi Arabia complies with the terms of a nuclear agreement in force with the UAE, which precludes uranium enrichment capability. However, the Saudi insistence on permission to enrich uranium on its soil, where the mineral is found in relatively large quantities, could accelerate a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, which Israel should oppose.
The third issue concerns the Palestinian problem. MBS told Fox, “For us, the Palestinian issue is very important. We have to solve it,” adding that “we hope we can get to a point where Palestinian lives will be easier.”
These and other statements appear deliberately vague in order not to antagonize Israel’s right-wing government. Yet, the Palestinians are said to be demanding the reopening of the American consulate in east Jerusalem and the PLO office in Washington, raising the level of Palestinian UN representation from observer to member, freezing the construction of new Israeli settlements, transferring territories from Area C (under total Israeli control) to Area B (under Palestinian civilian control), and more – demands which the current Israeli government would likely oppose. Saudis are committed to solving the Palestinian problem
Despite the lack of clarity, Saudi Arabia has publicly committed to solving the Palestinian problem, as expressed by the Saudi Foreign Minister and the newly named ambassador to Palestine, who declared this week that his country is “working to establish a Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as its capital.” The Kingdom is thus seeking to present itself not only as the guardian of Islam’s holiest sites (in Mecca and Medina) but also as the guardian of the Palestinian cause. This public commitment may constrain negotiations with Israel.
Israel has much to gain from an agreement with the Saudis. First, an agreement with the Arab world’s most important state, which also plays a central role in the Islamic world, could serve as an impetus for other Arab and Muslim countries to follow its lead. Second, Israel could benefit from Saudi oil and in return provide Riyadh with advanced military and civilian technology. Israel might also reap a bonanza from the planned India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor through a rail network via Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel. The Saudi-Israel peace deal, as the Crown Prince himself admitted in his Fox Interview, will “position Israel as a player in the Middle East.”
However, the Saudi demands of the United States and Israel pose serious challenges for both the Biden Administration and the Israeli government. Many congressional Democrats oppose the Saudi demand for nuclear energy development and would reject any agreement that does not include significant concessions to the Palestinians.
In Israel, defense experts strongly oppose handing the Saudis nuclear enrichment capacity, whereas hardline coalition members oppose any concessions to the Palestinians.
Netanyahu could conceivably dismantle the governing coalition and establish one with members of the Knesset opposition more inclined toward a Saudi deal. Such a move, however, does not seem to be in the cards, given the stability of the current coalition and Netanyahu’s likely reluctance to share the glory of such a historic peace with his political rivals, namely Benny Gantz and/or Yair Lapid. In articulating the benefits in store for Israel, Netanyahu attempts to downplay the importance of the Palestinian issue, telling the UN that the Palestinians must not be given “veto power over the peace processes with the Arab countries.” Thus, he ignores the dangers inherent in granting only symbolic concessions to the Palestinians while continuing Israel’s “creeping annexation” of the West Bank rather than moving toward a two-state solution. Prospects of any future solution to this festering problem are grim unless the Israeli-Saudi normalization is used to advance it. Failing to do so would allow the political right to celebrate the “peace for peace” formula expounded by the late prime minister Yitzhak Shamir, but in the long run, will prove to be a Pyrrhic victory.
The outcome of the American-mediated Israeli-Saudi saga is hard to predict.
“We are on the cusp of a breakthrough – a historic agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia,” Netanyahu declared at the UN. For once, this is neither a Netanyahu spin nor fiction, but successful completion of this process requires political daring and wisdom, which are unfortunately rare commodities in Israeli politics.
**The writer is a Mitvim Institute board member and teaches in the Department of Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He is author of a book in Hebrew, From Mistress to Known Partner: Israel’s Secret Relations with States and Minorities in the Middle East, 1948-2020.

Ukraine's Victory Over Russia Will Benefit Western Security
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/October 03/2023
The slow rate of [Ukrainian] progress has also prompted politicians on both sides of the Atlantic to question whether it is worth continuing to support Ukraine's military effort or instead concentrate their efforts on negotiating a peace settlement between the warring countries.
Vivek Ramaswamy, a candidate for the Republican Party nomination in the 2024 US presidential election... calling for Ukraine to cede territory to Russia as part of a peace package that would also commit Moscow to end its military alliance with Beijing.
Ramaswamy's fundamental argument, which is attracting support in some Republican circles, is that by supporting Ukraine's war effort, the US and its allies risk forcing Moscow to align itself more closely with Beijing, thereby creating a powerful bloc to confront the West.
[T]he notion that Western support for Ukraine will force Moscow to forge closer ties with China is also overstated. Chinese President Xi Jinping may have given his tacit backing for Putin's invasion of Ukraine last year, but Beijing regards Moscow as being very much the poor relation in their alliance, and sees Russia as being little more than a gas station to be used to fuel the Chinese economy. If Russia seriously thinks its interests would be better served by developing close ties with China, it should think again.
If Putin were to succeed in capturing large swathes of Ukrainian territory through force of arms, China would conclude that it could use similar tactics to achieve its own aims, such as launching an invasion of Taiwan. If Putin is defeated, though, China's Communist rulers will have to think twice before launching an unprovoked military assault.
Had it not been for the surrender of the US to Afghanistan in August of 2021, Russia would never have invaded Ukraine. Putin only started slowly sending troops to its border a few weeks later in September. Recently, China has begun sending ships and fighter jets toward Taiwan in the same slowly escalating way, to "normalize" troop movements and avoid raising alarm. The US simply cannot afford another defeat, this time in Ukraine. The surrender of any Ukrainian territory in some "deal" to end the war will be seen by the international community as a victory for Putin and another feckless American cut-and-run.
Still another factor that risks undermining Western support for Ukraine is the unreliability of the Biden administration's approach to the conflict. On one level, the White House remains committed to supporting the Ukrainian cause. On another, it appears confused about defining its ultimate objectives in the conflict. As retired US General Jack Keane recently commented in an interview with Fox News, the Biden administration's current track record suggests that it still does not have a strategic goal in the conflict.
If that is the case, then in the interests of Western security, the administration needs to agree on an endgame for the Ukraine conflict, one where Russia's humiliating defeat at the hands of Western backed Ukrainian forces becomes the central objective.
Ukraine's counteroffensive to liberate territory occupied by Russia may be taking longer than expected, but the central goal of inflicting a devastating defeat on Moscow remains imperative if other autocratic regimes like China are to be deterred from initiating future acts of bellicosity.
Ukraine's counteroffensive to liberate territory occupied by Russia may be taking longer than expected, but the central goal of inflicting a devastating defeat on Moscow remains imperative if other autocratic regimes like China are to be deterred from initiating future acts of bellicosity.
Since the Ukrainians launched their counter-offensive in the summer, their forces have made slow but steady progress in recapturing territory occupied by the Russians after President Vladimir Putin launched his unprovoked invasion last year.
The latest military assessment by US officials has concluded that the Ukrainian offensive, particularly in the south of the country, has achieved sufficient momentum to push through the so-called Surovikin Line, the complex network of defensive positions named after the Russian general who devised it.
Kyiv desperately needs to breach the Surovikin line at least to reach its main target of the coastal city of Melitopol, thereby severing Russia's land bridge between the mainland and occupied Crimea.
The slow rate of progress, though, being made on the battlefield by Ukraine's forces has raised concerns about the expectations of Kyiv's long-term strategic goal of expelling Russian troops from the entire country.
The slow rate of progress has also prompted politicians on both sides of the Atlantic to question whether it is worth continuing to support Ukraine's military effort or instead concentrate their efforts on negotiating a peace settlement between the warring countries.
In this context recent comments made by Vivek Ramaswamy, a candidate for the Republican Party nomination in the 2024 US presidential election, have been greeted with considerable concern in Kyiv.
Ramaswamy, a 38-year-old entrepreneur and relative newcomer to the political stage, has attracted much attention over his novel approach, where he is calling for Ukraine to cede territory to Russia as part of a peace package that would also commit Moscow to end its military alliance with Beijing.
Ramaswamy's fundamental argument, which is attracting support in some Republican circles, is that by supporting Ukraine's war effort, the US and its allies risk forcing Moscow to align itself more closely with Beijing, thereby creating a powerful bloc to confront the West.
It is a view that has also been espoused by former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who has warned about the Ukraine war "pushing Russians into the arms of the Chinese." Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a prominent contender for the Republican nomination, earlier this year broke ranks to argue that protecting Ukraine is not a key US interest.
As Justin Logan, the director of defense and foreign policy studies at the conservative think tank Cato Institute, recently commented, the views espoused by Ramaswamy and other prominent Republicans risk appealing to ordinary Americans who are growing more tired of financing the war.
While these arguments have understandably caused alarm in Kyiv, where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is calling on the West to increase its support for the Ukrainian military, not diminish it, they also fail to acknowledge the vital importance inflicting defeat on Russia will have for the future of the West's security.
Had it not been for the surrender of the US to Afghanistan in August of 2021, Russia would never have invaded Ukraine. Putin only started slowly sending troops to its border a few weeks later in September. Recently, China has begun sending ships and fighter jets toward Taiwan in the same slowly escalating way, to "normalize" troop movements and avoid raising alarm. The US simply cannot afford another defeat, this time in Ukraine. The surrender of any Ukrainian territory in some "deal" to end the war will be seen by the international community as a victory for Putin and another feckless American cut-and-run.
So far, according to the latest Western intelligence assessments, Western support for Ukraine's military campaign has resulted in Moscow losing almost half of its total combat capability in the conflict. And the longer the war continues, the more Russia's conventional military strength becomes degraded, thereby limiting its ability to mount a significant military threat to the West. Russia would still retain the world's largest nuclear arsenal, but its ability to threaten its neighbours through conventional means would be severely restricted.
Moreover, the notion that Western support for Ukraine will force Moscow to forge closer ties with China is also overstated. Chinese President Xi Jinping may have given his tacit backing for Putin's invasion of Ukraine last year, but Beijing regards Moscow as being very much the poor relation in their alliance, and sees Russia as being little more than a gas station to be used to fuel the Chinese economy. If Russia seriously thinks its interests would be better served by developing close ties with China, it should think again.
Another important factor that needs to be taken into consideration is the impact Russia's defeat in Ukraine will have on other autocratic regimes, such as China, who are tempted by the prospect of using military force to achieve their nationalist objectives.
If Putin were to succeed in capturing large swathes of Ukrainian territory through force of arms, China would conclude that it could use similar tactics to achieve its own aims, such as launching an invasion of Taiwan. If Putin is defeated, though, China's Communist rulers will have to think twice before launching an unprovoked military assault.
Still another factor that risks undermining Western support for Ukraine is the unreliability of the Biden administration's approach to the conflict. On one level, the White House remains committed to supporting the Ukrainian cause. On another, it appears confused about defining its ultimate objectives in the conflict. As retired US General Jack Keane recently commented in an interview with Fox News, the Biden administration's current track record suggests that it still does not have a strategic goal in the conflict.
If that is the case, then in the interests of Western security, the administration needs to agree on an endgame for the Ukraine conflict, one where Russia's humiliating defeat at the hands of Western backed Ukrainian forces becomes the central objective.
*Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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Russia's 2024 Federal Budget Shows Resilience To External Economic Shocks
Dr. Vladislav L. Inozemtsev*/MEMRI/October 03/2023
Russia | MEMRI Daily Brief No. 528
The Russian government finalized its draft of the federal budget for 2024, which is the country's largest ever, if not by the share of Russia's GDP than by absolute numbers. The revenue is projected at 35 trillion rubles ($388 billion)[1] – 33.9 percent larger than this year in rubles and 20 percent larger in dollar, as the authorities forecast that the average exchange rate for 2024 is going to be around 90.1 rubles for one dollar.[2]
The outlays will grow to 36.6 trillion rubles ($380 bil­lion) along with the military allocation driving the surge: the defense spending alone in­flates to 10.7 trillion rubles ($118.7 billion) from a projected figure of 6.4 trillion in 2023,[3] surpassing $100-billion mark for the first time in Russia's history, and, if ta­ken together with several other allocations, which also feed the needs of the military, the figure can exceed 13 trillion rubles, which would be an amount of money three times bigger compared to 2021 spen­ding.[4] But, by any standard, budget revenues in Russia will remain low: just 19.4 percent of GDP compared to around 24.2 percent in the US and up to 35-44 percent in Western Europe.[5]
Russia Is The Most "Militarized" Eurasian Country
In Russia, since 2007, the budget has been drafted for three-year periods. Thus, the latest one was drafted for the period of 2024-2026. This allows the Kremlin propagandists to display fantastic expenditure figures: 4.3 trillion rubles for children's welfare, 3.45 trillion for constructing new roads and a staggering 1 trillion for industrial research and development.[6] However, all these figures, when divided by three, are not so impressive compared with the allocations for the war in Ukraine, which allows Russian President Putin to rule the country by war-time measures, suppressing dissidents, nationalizing foreign investments, and mobilizing the people to the army even through partial border closures for several categories of citizens.
While Russia these days does not look like a country waging a full-scale war – ordinary life has not changed a lot; shops and restaurants remain as crowded as before, and real disposable incomes are even on the rise – Rus­sia's budget shows that it is.
The allocations for the national economy (meaning the spending on infrastructure, public-private partnerships, research and development, etc.) drop to a me­re 10.7 percent of the total expenditure (the smallest share since 2007), while tho­se dedicated to social policy (pensions, welfare payments, etc.) to 21.1 percent (the smallest share since 2011 as the average figure for 2012-2018 stood at 28 percent).[7]
By contrast, the military spending has increased to 29.3 percent (the record high $831.8-billion strong U.S. military appropriations for 2024 account for only 13.1 percent of the federal spendings).[8] Russia's military expenditures for 2024, being six percent of the GDP, appear to be the largest in post-Soviet history and will ma­ke Russia the most "militarized" Eurasian country, except for Ukraine.[9]
The Most Visible Rise In Revenue Came From Outside The Energy Sector
The main question that now posed by many experts is how realistic the budget looks. For 2023, the revenues were optimistically projec­ted to reach 26.13 trillion rubles ($270 billion), but these days it seems that they may be a bit higher, at around 26.5-26.7 trillion, after lagging the plan in Q1 and Q2.[10]
On the one hand, the drive is fueled by the recovering oil prices and Russia's ability to bypass the "price cap," while keeping export volumes almost intact as India, China, and other Asian nations become primary impor­ters of Russian oil. Furthermore, Western countries not only are increasing their purchases of petrole­um products processed from the Russian oil over­seas (exports from China, India, Turkey, and Singapore – which are net importers of oil – to those countries, which adopted an embargo for Russian oil, shoot up by 80 percent, in the first 12 months after Moscow's invasion of Ukrai­ne),[11] but are starting to buy Russian crude di­rectly from India thus violating the sanctions they had themselves imposed.[12]
On the other hand, the increase in revenues originated from a significant rise in non-oil-and-gas proceeds, due to the rising government funding of the national economy (pri­marily the military-industrial complex and infrastructure construction works), which cau­sed a multiplicator effect. In 2023, the most visible rise in revenue came from outside the energy sector, as, from January through August, the non-oil-and-gas proceeds were up by 24.2 percent compared to 2022 and con­tributed 55.6 percent of the overall budget revenues, exceeding those from the energy sector by 1.25 times (for 2024, the government relies on the same trend, projecting these revenues to exceed those derived from the energy sector by a factor of two).[13] I would say that the budget goals could be met if the average annual price for Rus­sia's oil stays at $65/barrel, and the economic growth hits 2.5 percent in the next year – and both assessments look realistic enough.
The Kremlin Possesses Sources Of Revenue Growth
Moreover, the Kremlin possesses two additional sources of revenue growth. First of all, the oil price projections look conservative enough: they stay at $85/barrel for 2024 and at $76/barrel for 2026, while many observers predict that oil prices will hit $100/barrel this year and do not exclude possible fu­ture hikes as well.[14] The discount for Russia's Urals blend decreased from $30-32 per barrel compared to Brent in February 2023 to less than $12 per barrel today,[15] and it may become even lower in the coming months. In addition, some Russian energy analy­sts who famously (and incorrectly) predicted a decline in oil production by over 50 percent in 2023,[16] are now giving the same prediction for 2025,[17] which may not turn out to be the case. In general, I would suppose that the energy revenue may well exceed the 2024 projections by up to 1 trillion rubles($10 billion).
Second, the business climate in Russia is now suppressed by the Central Bank's policies and its high interest rates (the key rate was just recently increased from 12.5 to 13 percent,[18] yet Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina admitted that inflation risks are here to stay).[19] However, I'm not so sure that the Russian authorities would allow the Bank to keep the rates as high as they are now: the money supply is abundant, and many industries need additional funds for a rather long term (e.g., the residential const­ruc­tion grows so fast that it might take from three to five years to sell all the apartments being shown these days in Russia's major cities).[20] Hence, I would predict that the rates will go down by mid-2024, and this move may increase business profits and, the­refore, tax collection. The deficit, projected at 1.6 trillion rubles for 2024 and at 1.5 trillion rubles for 2026, may therefore become far smaller (I would not ex­clude a balanced budget to be executed in one of the coming years).[21]
Another important point, which often remains neglected, reflects the changing situation with Russia's public debt, which before the war, reached 18.1 percent of GDP. It comprised 77 percent ruble-denominated debt and 23 percent the bonds and loans denominated in foreign currencies.[22] After 2022, as the United States effectively forced Russia to default since the payments on Euro­bonds were not serviced anymore after May 25, 2022,[23] the Russian foreign debt has been statistically recalculated into Rubles, with both the Russian investors and tho­se originating from "friendly" countries being now able to get both interest pay­ments and the value of the bonds being paid to the accounts in Russia or abroad.[24] Such a switch, I would say, produced a staggering effect, since even while the government continued its borrowing, and the real GDP contracted by 2.1 percent in 2022,[25] the debt-to-GDP ratio went down to less than 15 percent (the decline was al­so caused by the termination of new borrowing from international capital markets after the start of the war).[26] Such a trend opens new options for the Rus­sian government to increase the borrowing (just recently, Finance Minister Anton Si­luanov confirmed that the deficit will be most likely covered by additional borro­wing and not through mobilization of reserves).[27]
In 2024, Russians Will Pay More Taxes, As The Government Does Not Want To Spend Less
The elaboration of any federal budget in Russia presupposes economizing on various spending problems at the very start of the process, with gradual increase of allocations during the year (the average increase in spending since 2009 stays at 12 percent, while there was not a single case, during these years, in which the government has cut the expenditures, after the budget was signed into law). Even for the year 2023, nothing has changed, and the proposed 10-percent cut in financing of the so-called "unprotected" expenditures was never realized. I would also project that in 2024 the budget revenue may rise, and these increases would much more probably be used for additional financing of different programs than for cutting the deficit or lowering taxes. I would be happy to be wrong, but it looks like the total spending might become even larger than is expected these days.
The last important issue I would like to address is the issue of taxes. For many years, the Kremlin reiterated its intention not to raise tax payments, but constantly neglects it once and again. For 2024, I would mention three major points. First, whi­le the government most probably will not increase basic taxes like VAT and profit tax, one can expect a significant rise in "discretionary" smart taxation – the recent initiative to seize the "excess profits" that originate for unexpected devaluation of the ruble is just one example. It is worth noting that, starting from October 1, 2023, the export-oriented com­panies are obliged to contribute to the budget up to seven percent of their revenue in "special export duties," if the exchange rate exceeds 80 rubles to the dollar, since the government believes such a "weak" ruble inflates the companies' turnover.[28] Hence, I would mention that the official economic forecast, which is used as the guiding foundation for the 2024 budget, fo­resees the average exchange rate for the next year at Rub 90.1/dollar,[29] which means that the "extraordinary" duty may become a regular one.
The officials at the Finance Ministry used to call such a process "spot adjustment," pretending that these measures will not affect the broader economy (nevertheless, this new levy alone is expected to contribute up to 700 billion rubles ($7.23 billion) to the federal coffers in 2024). Second, for the first time in many years, the government is projecting lower dividends collected from the state-controlled companies than in the previous year (the decrease is quite significant at 23 percent, compared to the amount indicated in 2023 budget projections).[30] Such a change may mean that the Finance Ministry decided to increase the overall tax burden on these companies, since the collection of dividends looked unpredictable in recent years and therefore distorted the budget processing. Third, the significant increase of the overall tax revenues without any rise in official tax rates means that the government is betting on more efficient tax collection, which is bad news for entrepreneurs. Russians – both the ci­tizens and the businesses – will pay more in 2024 since the government seemin­gly does not want to spend less.
Conclusion
To finalize, I would argue that the 2024 budget reflects all the features of an economy that appears to be surprisingly resilient to external shocks and has adopted to the challenges of a full-scale military confrontation that now is expected to last for years. It refutes many forecasts pretending that the Russian fiscal system is unprepared for such an extraordinary turn, and it seems that in the coming year the Kremlin will not experience significant financial problems, which, it seems, cannot be said about Ukraine, which remains completely dependent on foreign funds.
*Dr. Vladislav Inozemtsev is the MEMRI Russian Media Studies Project Special Advisor, and Founder and Director of the Moscow-based Center for Post-Industrial Studies.
[1] Finam.ru/publications/item/pravitelstvo-odobrilo-proekt-byudzheta-rf-na-2024-2026-gody-20230922-1844/, September 22, 2023.
[2] Rg.ru/2023/09/12/minekonomrazvitiia-sprognozirovalo-srednegodovoj-kurs-dollara-v-2024-godu.html, September 12, 2023.
[3] Novayagazeta.ru/articles/2023/09/25/dengi-ili-to-chto-na-nikh-pokupat, September 25, 2023.
[4] Meduza.io/news/2023/09/22/bloomberg-rossiya-uvelichit-voennye-rashody-do-10-8-trilliona-rubley-eto-6-vvp-i-vtroe-bolshe-chem-tratili-na-oboronu-v-predvoennom-2021-godu, September 22, 2023.
[5] Lenta.ru/news/2023/09/22/deficit/, September 22, 2023; Whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/budget_fy2024.pdf, March 2023.
[6] Tass.ru/ekonomika/18819371, September 22, 2023.
[7] Rbc.ru/economics/26/09/2023/65117eaf9a7947300ad43fab, September 26, 2023.
[8] Whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/budget_fy2024.pdf, March 2023.
[9] Meduza.io/news/2023/09/22/bloomberg-rossiya-uvelichit-voennye-rashody-do-10-8-trilliona-rubley-eto-6-vvp-i-vtroe-bolshe-chem-tratili-na-oboronu-v-predvoennom-2021-godu, September 22, 2023.
[10] Duma.gov.ru/news/55836/, November 24, 2022.
[11] Energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/CREA_The-Laundromat_How-the-price-cap-coalition-whitewashes-Russian-oil-in-third-countries.pdf, April 2023.
[12] Spiegel.de/wirtschaft/trotz-sanktionen-deutschland-importiert-offenbar-russisches-oel-ueber-indien-a-8000ac08-b1d3-4408-8f6d-5d9e7cdd8bf9, September 12, 2023.
[13] Minfin.gov.ru/ru/press-center/?id_4=38649-predvaritelnaya_otsenka_ispolneniya_federalnogo_byudzheta_za_yanvar-avgust_2023_goda; Ria.ru/20230922/byudzhet-1898058614.html, September 22, 2023.
[14] Rbc.ru/economics/12/09/2023/650098629a794750b7c22c67, September 12, 2023.
[15] Korrespondent.net/business/economics/4562330-dyskont-na-neft-yz-rf-prevysyl-30-dollarov-opek, September 14, 2023.
[16] Golosameriki.com/a/oil-production-in-russia/6700073.html
[17] Youtube.com/watch?v=a8toDGKjBXc
[18] Cbr.ru/press/keypr/
[19] Rbc.ru/newspaper/2023/09/18/650301f39a79478078e82ace, September 15, 2023.
[20] Realty.rbc.ru/news/64d62d039a7947d31b16b5de
[21] Tass.ru/ekonomika/18818979, September 22, 2023.
[22] Gazeta.ru/business/news/2022/03/03/17372245.shtml, March 3, 2023.
[23] Ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20220524_33, May 24, 2022.
[24] Finam.ru/publications/item/evrobond-minfina-rf-s-pogasheniem-v-2028-godu-po-prezhnemu-v-igre-20230110-1645/, January 10, 2023
[25] Interfax.ru/business/895030, April 7, 2023.
[26] Iz.ru/1539385/oksana-belkina/ustoichivyi-uroven-zachem-rossiia-uvelichila-razmer-gosdolga, July 5, 2023.
[27] Interfax.ru/russia/922239, September 22, 2023.
[28] Interfax.ru/business/922039, September 21, 2023.
[29] Rg.ru/2023/09/12/minekonomrazvitiia-sprognozirovalo-srednegodovoj-kurs-dollara-v-2024-godu.html, September 12, 2023.
[30] Ru.investing.com/analysis/article-200307437, September 26, 202

Peace with Saudi Arabia!
Yousef Al-Dayni//Asharq Al Awsat/October 03/2023
American research centers and think tanks are active in examining future trends, especially the defense strategy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This comes in the wake of the interview with the Saudi Crown Prince, during which he clearly revived the issue of sovereignty, security, and defense, and extended the hand of dialogue to all countries in the region, according to a clear mechanism and indivisible guarantees, within the framework of a comprehensive solution to outstanding matters.
Despite the clarity of the Saudi position, we see attempts to skip over the details and instead highlight broad headlines, such as the slogan of “normalization” and its political and propaganda implications. The current US administration is trying to exploit this an electoral card, especially since Saudi Arabia carries great political and symbolic weight as the most important emerging player in the region and the most developed among the G20 members.
Nonetheless, Riyadh’s message is clear. The Kingdom is seeking support for its peaceful civilian nuclear program and to expand the scope of its trade within a well-defined free trade agreement, and to obtain concessions, commitments and defense upgrades by Washington that include more of the most advanced military equipment.
This is a major challenge today if we compare two important contexts: the first is related to rapid transformations, giant projects, and the rising Saudi influence in the Middle East region. This requires a quick response. This is being met with complex and slow American bureaucracy, especially in the defense field, whether in regard to the decision-making or the production process, as described by the expert in military and security affairs in the Middle East, Grant Rumley, in a paper he wrote for the Washington Policy Institute.
Everyone knows that Congress can delay or complicate certain financing agreements for arms sales and enact measures to control their use. In fact, many reports criticize the issue of time management and delivery delays.
What is certain is that Saudi Arabia’s defense and security strategy is clear and can be referred to in the Vision 2030 document and the subsequent statements.
There is a plan to build an independent defense industrial base that is not affected by the problems of time and delivery, but which enjoys a greater degree of freedom. This can be achieved by increasing the spending on national armament and military equipment, and localizing the industry by up to 50 percent of the total spending, under the direct supervision of the Saudi Company for Military Industries (SAMI), and the General Authority for Military Industries (GAMI).
Saudi Arabia has also required all concerned foreign defense companies and their agents to open regional headquarters in the Kingdom starting in 2024.
The return of a reliable ally is a requirement for the United States today if it wants to come back to the region on the basis of the respect of sovereignties and joint agreements. It must also deal with Saudi Arabia as the most important actor in the region and the most influential on its economic and logistical future that relies closely on safe energy corridors.
Realizing this important aspect of the Saudi transformation should be the essence of dialogues and discussions in research centers and think tanks, instead of focusing on trivial issues, such as normalization. Today, there is a need for Riyadh, and a need above all else to think about peace with the new Saudi Arabia!

What Can Saudi Negotiations with Israel Achieve that Past Peace Agreements Couldn’t?
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed'/Asharq Al Awsat/October 03/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/122795/122795/
Collective peace processes between Arab states and Israel have failed.
The Madrid Conference of 1991 had but limited impact. The Fez Initiative announced by King Fahd in 1981 was rejected and withdrawn. The 2002 Arab Peace Initiative of King Abdullah was also rebuffed by Israel. Jared Kushner’s “Deal of the Century,” the latest of such collective peace endeavors, did not materialize.
On the other hand, nearly all bilateral agreements have fulfilled their declared objectives, and their signatories have upheld their obligations. The string of successful bilateral agreements began four decades ago with the Camp David Accords between Egypt and Israel. In addition to the resolution of the war and the return of Sinai and the Suez Canal to Egypt, the agreement secured $1.5 billion in US aid to Egypt every year.
A few years later, Jordan would follow in the footsteps of Egypt. In 1994, Jordan signed a peace treaty with Israel that guaranteed Jordan the restoration of land as large in size as Gaza, as well as an equitable share of water and debt exemptions.
More recently, Morocco normalized ties with Israel after the latter’s official recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara. Sudan had also normalized relations with Israel as part of a security and military cooperation and aid deal.
Lebanon signed a maritime border agreement with Israel to demarcate each country’s share of gas fields in the Mediterranean.
For their part, the UAE and Bahrain signed the Abraham Accords, which paved the way for several economic projects and other agreements with Israel. Other agreements of lesser calibers were reached with Qatar, Oman, and Tunisia.
The 1993 Oslo Accords remain an exception, in both their success and failure. The peace process led to the creation of an internationally recognized Palestinian Authority and a civil government for the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. The PLO, along with nearly 120,000 Fatah leaders and their families, returned from exile in Tunisia, with promises of US and European support. Though suspended under US President Trump, US aid was reinstated after the change of guards at the White House. However, the Oslo Accords failed to deliver on the remaining promises. Today, if the Saudi-Israeli negotiation process takes off, where does it aim to get?
All Arab-Israeli agreements, starting from Camp David to the latest deal with Bahrain, were based on a foundation of bilateral interests. The Saudi approach will likely take the same path. This time, the US proposal was met with specific Saudi demands that serve the Kingdom’s interests: defense cooperation (vital for Saudi Arabia’s security), arms, nuclear, and others, along with the revival of negotiations on the two-state solution. In an interview with a US media channel, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman spoke of his wish to enable Palestinians to negotiate as part of the Saudi efforts.
Under this process, the Kingdom and Israel would negotiate agreements specific to their two countries, whereas the peace talks on the status of the Palestinian state and the resolution of outstanding issues such as refugees, settlements, the capital, and others would be left to the Palestinians alone on their separate negotiation track.
Palestinian diplomacy swiftly shifted into high gear, indicating a wish to take advantage of this new endeavor. The Palestinian Authority should have made use of the former negotiations that Israel held with Lebanon, the UAE, Morocco, and others.
Perhaps pursuing this path may improve the economic situation and the living conditions of Palestinians, allow them to enter Arab markets and push for a two-state solution.
The Saudi track might not lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state, but it might create the right political environment for its establishment. The Arab world and the whole region have seen many changes since those first negotiations started decades ago, and a deep understanding of these changes, both positive and negative, is needed today. Now is not the time to point fingers at the PA for missed opportunities or scold Arabs for their failure to support the Palestinian people. What we need now are opportunities to fix what’s broken, stitch back together Palestine’s political fabric, and mend the Palestinian divide.

'A lot of work' remains on Saudi-Israel deal, US envoy says
Elizabeth Hagedorn/Al-Monitor/October 03/2023
WASHINGTON — As the Biden administration pursues a historic deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel, the US official tasked with expanding the Abraham Accords hopes an upcoming meeting of Israel and several Arab states will lay the groundwork for a much broader regional coalition.
The State Department’s new Senior Adviser for Regional Integration Daniel Shapiro told Al-Monitor he is focused on the “expanding normalization agenda,” including through the so-called Negev Forum that aims to cement the emerging economic and diplomatic ties between Israel and its Sunni Arab neighbors.
For the first time on Israeli soil, the top diplomats from the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Egypt joined their counterparts from Israel and the United States for a groundbreaking summit in March 2022 that reflected the new alignments reshaping the Middle East.
The rare display of cooperation came as the Biden administration sought to contain Iran and blunt China’s rising influence in the region. Key to that effort is the brokering of normalized ties between Israel and the most powerful Arab country, Saudi Arabia.
“There's a lot of work to do before we'll know if that will all come together,” Shapiro said in his first interview with a US media outlet since his July appointment.
A second ministerial-level Negev gathering was originally scheduled for early 2023 but was postponed by this year’s host, Morocco, amid heightened tensions between the Palestinians and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government. After repeated delays, the forum is expected to reconvene in the North African country later this month, multiple diplomatic sources have told Al-Monitor.
US looks to ASEAN as model
Shapiro said the Arab-Israeli grouping could one day take on a bigger role in fostering economic and diplomatic cooperation in the region, much like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which has doubled in size since it began in 1967 as a five-country bloc to contain communism.
“ASEAN to me is the gold standard of how a large, diverse region of countries can decide that their interests are best served by pooling together … [and] negotiating as a bloc with other partners outside of that region,” said Shapiro, the former US ambassador to Israel during the Obama administration.
“Our aspirations for this are significant,” Shapiro said. “Over time, a forum like this can evolve into a regional integration organization that goes much beyond what's been achieved so far.”
Plans for a second Negev summit come as US officials are working to mediate full diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The two countries' once unthinkable rapprochement would not only hand President Joe Biden a foreign policy win as he campaigns for reelection, but potentially open the door for other Arab and Muslim-majority countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Mauritania to strike similar pacts with Israel. Countries like Oman that already have some level of cooperation with Israel may also be more inclined to formalize those ties if the region’s most powerful Sunni monarchy goes first.
“I don't think there's any question that a decision by Saudi Arabia to normalize with Israel would have influence that would radiate out to other countries,” said Shapiro. “That's one of the many potential benefits of that breakthrough if it occurs.”
He added that some of the countries considering developing relations with Israel have indicated they are waiting to see how its negotiations with Saudi Arabia unfold.
“They're watching the Saudi talks play out, and that's a factor in their thinking,” Shapiro said. “Others may consider that there's an actual advantage for them to move sooner, that actually they'll be able to derive greater benefit by not coming behind the largest and most influential player.”
“There’s quite a number of countries in the Arab world, in Africa, in East Asia that are relevant,” Shapiro said. “There are countries that are considering all sorts of different possibilities, timing, options and how to adjust their own planning to this very public news story that we're all following.”
Israel and Saudi Arabia are hammering out a framework for a historic pact that Biden officials say would bring greater stability to the Middle East but would require significant compromise from the United States. Riyadh is seeking security guarantees from Washington and US support for the development of a civilian nuclear program, both of which would face resistance among Biden's allies in Congress.
'Difference in approach' from wary Palestinans
To sell the deal at home, Saudi Arabia is also pushing Israel to make concessions to the Palestinians, a prospect that has already been met with opposition from members of the most religious and right-wing government in Israel’s history.
Al-Monitor previously reported that the parties are discussing transferring Israeli-administered land in the West Bank's Area C to Area B, which is under joint-Israeli-Palestinian control. Also on the table is an Israeli freeze on settlement construction and expansion in the West Bank, which Israel captured during the 1967 Middle East war.
Shapiro said it’s too soon to know what a significant Palestinian component of the Israel-Saudi deal would entail, but said US officials have met with the Palestinians to discuss “how they might participate in or benefit from the arrangements that would accompany an Israeli-Saudi normalization.”
The Palestinians say the Trump administration didn’t consult with them before brokering the Abraham Accords, which saw the United Arab Emirates normalize relations with Israel in exchange for it suspending the annexation of parts of the occupied West Bank.
The agreement undercut the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative championed by the late Saudi King Abdullah that said Arab countries would normalize with Israel only in return for Palestinian statehood and Israel's complete withdrawal from the territories it captured in 1967.
“One of the things we saw at the time of Abraham Accords was mostly Palestinian rejection of that decision by those countries,” Shapiro said. “They may have felt surprised by it. They may have felt a certain amount of disappointment, even betrayal.”
Shapiro described a "noteworthy difference in approach" from the Palestinians to the current Israeli-Saudi talks “to see there's a mechanism by which they can advance some of their goals, which of course include keeping progress alive toward a two-state solution.”
There are clear signs the high-stakes Saudi-Israeli effort is making headway, including the first-ever public visit by an Israeli minister to Saudi Arabia last week and increasing optimism from their respective leaders. Recently Netanyahu claimed his country was “at the cusp” of a historic pact with Saudi Arabia, where Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said a deal was getting “closer” by the day.
"The work is underway," Shapiro said. "Everyone acknowledges that, and we will see if it can be achieved."