Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on November 03-04/2023
Unmasking Nasrallah's Theatrical and Deceptive Hollywood-Style Speech/Elias Bejjani/November 03/2023
Lebanon-Israel border heats up
Kremlin dismisses claims that Wagner will give Hezbollah air defense system
Geagea says Nasrallah will 'lie a little' in Friday's speech, slams pre-speech videos
UN plans to cut number of refugees receiving cash aid in Lebanon by a third
Report: Nasrallah recently met with al-Assad in Damascus
Celebrations in southern suburbs as Nasrallah breaks silence on war
Why Lebanon wants peace, not war, with Israel/Tarek Abou Jaoude/Asia Times/November 03/2023
Who is Hasan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah?/Bryan Pietsch/The Washington Post/November 3, 2023
France warns Lebanon will fall 'into an abyss' if Israel-Hamas war spreads
Israel claims Syrian militia assisting Hezbollah/Joe Truzman and Bill Roggio/November 03/2023
US intel suggests Syria’s Assad agreed to send Russian missile system to Hezbollah with Wagner group help
Lebanon is revisiting the ghost of the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war/Nadim Shehadi/Arab News/November 03, 2023
Will harm to Lebanon’s environment, public health force Israeli military to admit and end use of white phosphorus?/TAREK ALI AHMAD & AHMAD BAYDOUN/Arab News/November 03, 2023
Hezbollah's Nasrallah refrains from entering Israel-Hamas war, praises Iraq, Yemen proxies/Beatrice Farhat/Al Monitor/November 3, 2023
Weak Hezbollah speech shows who is really in charge/Paul Nuki/The Telegraph/November 3, 2023
Nasrallah says open war with Israel possible, threatens US fleet in Mediterranean
Sayyed Nasrallah's Speech Text From Al Manar Hezbollah Web Site/Sayyed Nasrallah Warns: All Scenarios Open for Our Front, We’re Ready

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 03-04/2023
Netanyahu rules out Gaza cease-fire as Blinken presses for more aid, civilian protection
Israel-Hamas war sees highest death toll for journalists in 31 years
By the numbers: The US military buildup in the Middle East
Iran-backed Iraqi militias announce expanded attacks on US bases
Hamas govt says deadly Israel strike hits near Gaza's biggest hospital
Trapped in hell: Palestinian civilians try to survive in northern Gaza, focus of Israel's offensive
Israel approves transfer of tax revenues to Palestinian Authority
Blinken returns to Israel in bid to secure 'humanitarian pause' in Gaza
After Israel attack, US follows Hamas trail of money
Israel resists US pressure to pause the war to allow more aid to Gaza, wants hostages back first
Pentagon acknowledges flying unarmed drones over Gaza
Former NATO chief backs pause in Gaza war, but not cease-fire
Israel strikes ambulance in Gaza City, many reported killed
Houthi rebels attacked Israel, not the state of Yemen | Fact check
Honduras recalls ambassador to Israel as it condemns civilian Palestinian toll in war
Exhausted and disappointed with allies, Ukraine’s president and military chief warn of long attritional war
US sanctions UAE, Turkey, China firms for allegedly aiding Russia in Ukraine

Titles For The Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 03-04/2023
Another New War?....Azerbaijan's Heroes: Soldiers Who Behead Armenians/Uzay Bulut/Gatestone Institute./November 03, 2023
How arming Saudi Arabia helped Israel and the United States/Bradley Bowman and Ryan Brobst/Defence News/November 03/2023
Hamas officials admit its strategy is to use Palestinian civilians as human shields/Natalie Ecanow/New York Post/November 03/2023
Conflict sending shock waves around the world/Alistair Burt/Arab News/November 03, 2023
Rules of war are being rewritten in Gaza/Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/November 03, 2023
Women and children bear the brunt of Gaza’s war/Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/November 03, 2023

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on November 03-04/2023
Unmasking Nasrallah's Theatrical and Deceptive Hollywood-Style Speech
Elias Bejjani/November 03/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/123886/123886/
Hassan Nasrallah's speech delivered today in Beirut, has unveiled a host of hypocritical aspects shrouding the so-called slogans of resistance and liberation. In a Hollywood-style, delusional, and deceptive manner, Nasrallah's address was nothing short of a scandal, attracting significant attention. His appearance, filled with feigned piety, false claims, and empty rhetoric, exposed a vast chasm between the image that he and Iran attempt to project about their alliance as forces of resistance and opposition to American hegemony and the feeble, cartoonish reality that the content of his speech revealed.
Not a shred of credibility, seriousness, or realism could be found in Nasrallah's remarks, nor did he exhibit even a modicum of respect for the slogans and fanaticism of liberating Palestine and eliminating the State of Israel within seven minutes, as has been falsely claimed by Iran's military, religious, and civilian leaders.
His overt focus on the "Great Satan," the United States, and his attribution of all the consequences of supporting and protecting Israel to it, despite his portrayal of Israel as fragile as a spider's web, reveals a deceptive and evasive approach to avoiding commitments tied to the enormous military capabilities proclaimed by Iran's axis.The narrative, content, heresies, justifications, and allegations in his speech blatantly confirmed that Nasrallah, despite the aura surrounding him, is nothing more than a foot soldier in Iran's terrorist army, a mere mouthpiece, and a puppet. He possesses no independent decision-making ability and merely obeys Iran's orders without question.What Nasrallah demonstrated through his speech is that the Persian state is not, as some suggest, a genuine force of resistance, liberation, and principles; rather, it is an avaricious and immoral merchant, driven solely by selfish local, international, regional, and self-interested objectives, even at the expense of Arab countries, their people, and their wealth in general, and at the expense of the Palestinian cause and blood in particular.
Nasrallah's deceptive and delusional speech once again sheds light on Iran's sinister attempts to sow strife, division, and religious sectarianism among Arab peoples, and exploit the Palestinian people's suffering. The Arab world must remain vigilant against the openly declared Iranian schemes.
To thwart Iranian plots, Arab nations must strive for peace in the region, adopt moderate positions, and confront foreign Iranian interventions that threaten regional stability, peace, and security.
In conclusion, Nasrallah's speech was a staged farce, exposing the deficiencies of the satanic axis of resistance and revealing the true goals of Iran's mullahs. It is important to remember that Hassan Nasrallah, despite his arrogance and inflated media image, is a mere pawn in Iran's army, a mere mouthpiece, trumpet, and cymbal in everything he utters. Today, not tomorrow, it is imperative for Arab countries, particularly the Palestinians, to openly declare Iran as an enemy, boycott it, and dismantle all its armed terrorist and militia proxies.

Lebanon-Israel border heats up
Agence France Presse/November 03/2023
Israel shelled Friday the outskirts of Qaouzah, Ramya, Yaroun, Ras al-Naqoura, Marwahin, and Aita al-Shaab, as it continued its unprecedented artillery shelling on southern Lebanese towns along the border.
The Israeli army said it targeted a missile launchpad in the Shebaa Farms, while Hezbollah fired an anti-tank missile at a gathering of Israeli troops near the Mattat post facing Rmeish, inflicting "certain casualties."
Two civilians were wounded in Israeli bombardments of the border region Thursday, while Hezbollah announced five of its fighters killed.
The deaths raised to 71 the number killed in Lebanon since the Israel-Hamas war began, according to an AFP tally -- most of them Hezbollah fighters and other combatants but also civilians. Hezbollah had attacked Thursday 19 Israeli positions along the border, on the eve of a speech by Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on the Israel-Hamas war. A drone attack on an Israeli barracks in the disputed Shebaa Farms area followed. A barrage of rockets launched by the Lebanese section of Hamas's armed wing wounded two people in the Israeli town of Kiryat Shmona near the border, Israel's Magen David Adom emergency medical service said. On the Israeli side, nine people have died -- eight soldiers and one civilian. But the tall could rise. Israeli helicopters were seen Thursday transporting a large number of casualties from the site in Shebaa and Israeli media confirmed Friday casualties among Israeli soldiers. The Israeli military said in response it targeted the group with a "broad assault", in which "warplanes and helicopters" attacked Hezbollah targets. "We are in a high state of readiness in the north, in a very high state of alert, to respond to any event today and in coming days," Israeli military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said. Israel has carried out relentless strikes on Gaza since Hamas militants attacked border communities and military outposts on October 7. French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu said Lebanon "doesn't need a war" with Israel, during a visit on Thursday to his country's contingent in the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). Such a war "could have major escalatory effects on the whole region," he said.

Kremlin dismisses claims that Wagner will give Hezbollah air defense system
Naharnet/November 03/2023
The Kremlin on Friday dismissed a Wall Street Journal report that U.S. intelligence believed Russia's Wagner mercenary group plans to provide Hezbollah with an air defense system, saying such talk was unfounded. The Wall Street Journal has reported that American officials were allegedly monitoring discussions between Wagner and Hezbollah over the possible delivery of the SA-22, a system that uses anti-aircraft missiles and guns to combat airstrikes. Clashes between Israel and Hezbollah have increased along the Lebanese border as the war with Hamas rages in Gaza.
The newspaper quoted American officials as saying that the SA-22 has yet to be delivered to Lebanon, but noted that some Hezbollah and Wagner personnel are currently stationed in Syria.

Geagea says Nasrallah will 'lie a little' in Friday's speech, slams pre-speech videos
Naharnet/November 03/2023
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea rejected anew the choice of war on the eve of a speech by Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on the Israel-Hamas war. "War does not lead to any actual result," Geagea told LBCI. "We need a real solution to the Palestinian cause." He added that the Axis of Resistance has done nothing that served the cause. "It's not about speeches, but rather about giving the Palestinians their rights back," he said. Geagea said about Nasrallah's long-awaited speech that the decision is not in Nasrallah's hands but in the hands of Iran. "He will lie a little," Geagea charged, adding that it would have been better if Nasrallah "spent his time on something serious and left the south to the Lebanese army and the UNIFIL.""Propaganda videos are not nice at a time when hundreds are dying in Gaza every day," he said. Hezbollah had earlier made a buzz on social media by posting two videos. The first showed Nasrallah passing in front of a Hezbollah flag without looking at the camera. The second showed him preparing his speech.

UN plans to cut number of refugees receiving cash aid in Lebanon by a third
Associated Press/November 03/2023
Faced with an increasing funding crunch, the United Nations will cut the number of refugee families receiving cash assistance in Lebanon by nearly a third next year, a spokesperson for the U.N. refugee agency said Thursday.
Due to "significant funding reductions," UNHCR and the World Food Program will give monthly cash aid to 88,000 fewer families in 2024 than in 2023, UNHCR spokeswoman Lisa Abou Khaled said. About 190,000 families will continue receiving the assistance, which is capped at a monthly maximum of $125 per household, she said. In the past, some families received extra assistance in the winter months for heating fuel expenses, but this year that program will also be halted, Abou Khaled said. That aid "was critical for vulnerable families to survive the winter season," she said.
Lebanon, which has been in the throes of a severe financial crisis since 2019, hosts some 790,000 registered Syrian refugees and potentially hundreds of thousands more who are unregistered, the highest population of refugees per capita in the world. About 90% of Syrian refugees in the country are living below the extreme poverty line.Syria's uprising-turned civil war, now in its 13th year, has killed nearly half a million people, displaced half of its prewar population of 23 million and crippled infrastructure in both government and opposition-held areas. Recent months have seen a substantial uptick of violence in the largely frozen conflict, but international attention has largely turned away from Syria to the conflict in Ukraine and now to the Israel-Hamas war. UNHCR's Lebanon office has only received funds to cover 36% of its annual budget so far this year, while at the same time last year it was 50% funded, Abou Khaled said. The office has already cut staff and reduced programs this year and may make further cuts in 2024, she said. Earlier this year, the U.N. slashed assistance to Syrian refugees in Jordan, also citing funding shortfalls. Since Lebanon's economic meltdown began in 2019, officials have increasingly called for a mass return of Syrians, saying they are a burden on the country's scarce resources and that much of Syria is now safe, while human rights organizations have cited cases of returning refugees being detained and tortured. Over the past year, the Lebanese Army has deported hundreds of Syrians. Many of those were intercepted while entering the country at illegal crossing points, but others were registered refugees who had been living in the country for years.

Report: Nasrallah recently met with al-Assad in Damascus
Naharnet/November 03/2023
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has met within the last two weeks with Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, al-Joumhouria newspaper said.The daily said the meeting took place in Damascus and the two leaders discussed possible options to deal with the Israel-Hamas war and prepared for the coming period. The meeting also aimed at activating the coordination between the different parties of the Axis of Resistance, al-Joumhouria said.

Celebrations in southern suburbs as Nasrallah breaks silence on war
Associated Press/November 03/2023
Celebratory gunshots rang out over Beirut as thousands packed into a square in the Lebanese capital's southern suburbs on Friday to watch a televised speech by Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. It was Nasrallah's first public remarks since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war, sparked by the Palestinian militants deadly Oct. 7 incursion into southern Israel. The speech came a day after the most significant escalation in clashes between Hezbollah and Israeli forces on the border since the war started and on the same day as a visit to Israel by the top U.S. diplomat. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to urge protections for civilians in the fighting with Hamas, as Israeli troops tightened their encirclement of Gaza City. In his lengthy remarks, Nasrallah praised the Hamas attack four weeks ago in which the militants attacked farming villages and military posts in southern Israel. More than 1,400 people were killed in Israel in the attack. "This great, large-scale operation was purely the result of Palestinian planning and implementation," Nasrallah said, suggesting that Hezbollah had no part in the attack. "The great secrecy made this operation greatly successful."
Nasrallah's speech had been widely anticipated throughout the region as a sign of whether the Israel-Hamas conflict would spiral into a regional war. Since the beginning of the war, Hezbollah, an ally of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, had taken calculated steps to keep Israel's military busy on its border with Lebanon, but not to the extent of igniting an all-out war.

Why Lebanon wants peace, not war, with Israel
Tarek Abou Jaoude/Asia Times/November 03/2023
https://asiatimes.com/2023/11/why-lebanon-wants-peace-not-war-with-israel/
PM Mikati’s peace proposal may be a non-starter but his conciliatory tone reflects Lebanon’s lack of appetite for another conflict
As the Lebanese prime minister, Najib Mikati, outlined a three-step peace plan for the conflict in Gaza on October 31, he made a statement that may seem ordinary to a Western audience: “We will consider the right of Israel and the right of the Palestinians.”
But his words had the potential to spark outrage in a country that has yet to recognize Israel, let alone entertain the idea of peace talks. Speaking to The Economist, Mikati outlined his initiative. His plan calls for a five-day ceasefire followed by a permanent cessation of hostilities. Then, an international conference should convene to finally resolve the issue by implementing the ever-elusive two-state solution. There is no doubt that Mikati’s plan expresses the more moderate wishes of the majority in the Middle East. Most people not directly involved in the conflict want to see an immediate end to what is widely seen as a disproportionate and collective punishment of Gaza. They also want an increase in international diplomatic efforts to tackle the underlying issues. It’s clear that many in the Arab world don’t consider the attacks on October 7 as isolated incidents. And that some responsibility should be shared by Israel and the West, who they consider to have failed to seriously pursue the two-state solution, at the expense of Palestinian dignity and political expression. Yet Mikati’s plan itself is hardly original. It echoes the Arab peace initiative called for by the much more influential Saudi Arabia in 2002. So why is a caretaker prime minister (only a president, which Lebanon has not had for two years, can appoint a prime minister) spearheading a seemingly hopeless peace plan, when his country has yet to settle its own matters with Israel?
No appetite for war
The first and immediate reason for Mikati’s initiative is the rising worry in Lebanon that the country will be dragged into a war it simply cannot afford to participate in. The Lebanese state has been effectively bankrupt since 2019, and the country has been mired with one crisis after another ever since. Its economy has contracted by 39.9% of GDP since 2018 while the Lebanese Pound has lost more than 98% of its value in that time, according to World Bank estimates. Meanwhile, average inflation in 2022 reached 171% and the government debt-to-GDP ratio was listed at 283.2%.
This financial hole, compounded by the extraordinary explosion at Beirut’s port in August 2020 and subsequent energy and wheat crises, has left Lebanon in one of the worst socioeconomic situations in the country’s history. So, it’s hardly surprising that the appetite for war is not exactly surging.
The second impetus for Mikati is political. Lebanon has always had a peculiar position within the Arab-Israeli conflict. Parts of the country see it as an existential issue amid fears of Israeli aggression, while others have developed a more ambivalent attitude.
Since a brief involvement in the Arab war against Israel in 1948, the Lebanese military has avoided getting involved in any military action against Israel.
Hezbollah’s success in pushing Israel out of the south of Lebanon in 2000 and its brief campaign against Israel in 2006 have led many to associate the Iran-sponsored “Party of God” with resistance against Israel. Meanwhile, many Lebanese leaders have done their best to distance themselves from Hezbollah, and the military has played a minimal role in stopping Israeli encroachments and attacks on Lebanese infrastructure. Hezbollah continues to gain much of its legitimacy in Lebanon as a resistance movement, often using as an official raison d’être Israel’s continued occupation of the Shebaa Farms.
This is a small area of 16 square miles claimed by Lebanon that contains a few settlements. It sits on Lebanon’s border with Syria, which also runs through the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. A 2022 survey conducted by the Arab Barometer showed that 17% of respondents in Lebanon said they “strongly favor or favor” normalization between Arab states and Israel. This ranked Lebanon third among the countries surveyed. And the two above it, Sudan (39%) and Morocco (31%), are both parties to the controversial Abraham Accords, the bilateral agreements signed in 2020 and 2021 between Israel and various Arab states. For comparison, only 5% of Egyptians and Jordanians responded in the same manner.Even for those Lebanese that are more openly aggressive to Israel, it seems that certain engagement rules (including restricting attacks to military outposts and surveillance equipment, and refraining from targeting civilians) – developed over the years between Hezbollah and the Israeli military – have served to bring a more satisfactory status quo.
In fact, another survey conducted this week by the Lebanese newspaper Al Akhbar – which is often seen as supportive of Hezbollah – showed that 68% of respondents are against direct engagement, while only 52% supported limited “operations” to keep pressure on Israeli forces. That said, one shouldn’t confuse a lack of appetite for war with support, or even tolerance, of Israeli internal and regional activity, not least in the latest conflict with Hamas. Protests have been taking place across Lebanon and the wider region over the past couple of weeks expressing solidarity with Palestinians, while also condemning the West’s seemingly unconditional support of Israel.
What’s more, 80% of respondents in Al Akhbar’s survey expressed support for Hamas’s operations and 73% were against a neutral Lebanese position in the conflict. This chimes with the views of many others in the Arab world and across a range of developing countries, that Israel is either a guilty party or has gone too far in its retaliation in Gaza. Such are the delicate balances that Mikati is trying to hold with his new initiative for peace. While his plan will likely fall on deaf ears, the rest of Lebanon will be watching with bated breath as the country’s (and the region’s) fate plays out over the coming weeks and months.
*Tarek Abou Jaoude is Teaching Fellow in Politics and International Relations, University of Portsmouth

Who is Hasan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah?
Bryan Pietsch/The Washington Post/November 3, 2023
Hasan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed militant group with widespread political influence in Lebanon, gave his first address Friday since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel. If Hezbollah were to escalate attacks along Israel’s northern border in response to Israel’s military offensive in the Gaza Strip, the war could spiral into a regional conflict. Nasrallah did not announce a change in policy but said all options remain “on the table.” Here is what to know about Nasrallah’s role in Hezbollah and his views on the Israel-Gaza war. What is Hezbollah, the militant group on Israel’s northern border?
Who is Hasan Nasrallah?
Nasrallah was born in Beirut in 1960. He studied to become a cleric at Shiite seminaries in Iran and Iraq. He reportedly joined Hezbollah in the early 1980s, following the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982. He became the leader of the group in 1992 after the assassination of his predecessor, Sayyad Abbas Musawi, by Israeli forces. Nasrallah, 63, led Hezbollah for the latter half of the Israeli occupation of Lebanon, which lasted formally for 15 years at the end of the 20th century.Though he is not technically a public official in Lebanon, Nasrallah is one of the country’s largest-looming political figures. Hezbollah and its allies lost the majority in last year’s parliamentary elections but still hold the largest share of seats, in a time of economic crisis and widespread discontent. Nasrallah is known for his long, bombastic speeches and a pronounced lisp. His followers call him “The Sayyed” or “Abu Hadi” — Arabic for Father of Hadi, his son who was killed in clashes with Israeli troops in 1997. One of his most triumphant moments was during the month-long war that Hezbollah militants and Israel waged in 2006: Three days into the conflict, he was speaking on air with Hezbollah’s Al-Manar channel and said the surprises he had promised were about to begin. An Israeli warship was targeted then.
“Watch it burn,” he said.
Walid Phares, a Lebanese-born political commentator, told the Council on Foreign Relations in 2010 that Nasrallah is seen among some in Lebanon as a “messianic figure.”In a 2006 dispatch from Lebanon, Robin Wright, then a Washington Post reporter who visited Nasrallah in Beirut, wrote that Nasrallah’s face was displayed there on computer screen savers, posters and keychains. “Taxis play his speeches instead of music,” Wright reported. Lebanon’s Hezbollah weighs dueling appeals: Ease attacks or escalate
What are his views?
A key goal of Hezbollah, according to its 1985 manifesto, is the destruction of Israel. Under Nasrallah, Hezbollah has continued to engage in skirmishes with Israel. Though Hamas is Sunni and Hezbollah is Shiite, and the two militant groups have disagreed on other conflicts in the region, they have found common cause recently in opposing Israel; destroying Israel is also a stated aim of Hamas. Both groups have been classified as terrorist organizations by the United States. Both receive support from Iran, experts and officials say. The Israeli occupation of Lebanon appears to have been formative in Nasrallah’s motivations. He told Wright in 2006 that he and his peers had witnessed “what happened in Palestine, in the West Bank, in the Gaza Strip, in the Golan, in Sinai.”That taught him that in Lebanon, “we cannot rely on the Arab League states, nor on the United Nations,” he said. “The only way that we have is to take up arms and fight the occupation forces.”
What has Nasrallah said about the Israel-Gaza war?
Since the conflict began Oct. 7, when Hamas attacked Israel, Hezbollah and Israel have traded fire near the Israel-Lebanon border. Yet the extent to which Hezbollah will become involved in the war between Hamas and Israel remains unclear, amid fears of wider regional escalation. Nasrallah made his first public remarks on the matter in an address Friday, saying that Hezbollah and other Hamas allies were unaware of the plans for the Oct. 7 attack, but that Hamas had “no other choice” but to attack Israel. “The other choice,” he said, “would have been silence and death.” In his speech, Nasrallah boasted that Hezbollah’s “daily, targeted” strikes against Israel were distracting and weakening it in its fight against Hamas. He warned Israel against any “aggression or preemptive strike” on Lebanon, which he said would be “the biggest idiocy in the history of your existence.”Hezbollah’s fighting with Israel on the border, he said, “is a front of solidarity and support for Gaza.”That front is evolving based on developments in Gaza, he said, adding that “all the options are on the table and we could go toward them at any point in time.”
*Sarah Dadouch, Ellen Francis, Justine McDaniel, Mohamad El Chamaa and Frances Vinall contributed to this report

France warns Lebanon will fall 'into an abyss' if Israel-Hamas war spreads
RFI/November 3, 2023
France has urged Israel and the Lebanese Islamist group Hezbollah to refrain from destabilising the United Nations peacekeeping force in Lebanon – warning that any broadening of the Israel-Hamas war across the border would plunge Lebanon "into an abyss". Speaking to FranceInfo radio, Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu said the peacekeeping mission, UNIFIL must not be put in an "untenable situation in which it will not be able to carry out the mission that the United Nations has given it".That message, he added, was being sent by France to various "actors" on both sides. France has been seeking to use its historical relationship with Lebanon to defuse tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, but violence has spiked. Some 700 French soldiers are part of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon established in 1978 following violence on the Israel-Lebanon border. Lecornu was speaking after meeting the French troop contingent in Lebanon and ahead of a much-anticipated speech on Friday by Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. He said all of Lebanon's leaders needed to understand the risk of going to war. "The war here in Lebanon would plunge part of the Middle East into an abyss which we would have difficulty collectively to get back up from," Lecornu added. Macron former foreign minister to lead French efforts to break Lebanon deadlock

Israel claims Syrian militia assisting Hezbollah
Joe Truzman and Bill Roggio/November 03/2023 |
Israel Defense Forces Arabic spokesperson Avichay Adraee claimed on Thursday that the Iraqi Shi’ite militia Liwa al-Imam al-Hussein has traveled to Lebanon to assist Hezbollah in fighting Israel. If true, that adds to the mounting evidence of foreign fighters traveling to Lebanon in an attempt to combat Israel.
“After a series of failures suffered by Hezbollah in achieving success against Israel in recent weeks, the Iranian ‘Imam Hussein Brigade’ militia, led by the so-called Dhu al-Fiqar, arrived in southern Lebanon, which was originally established in Syria to provide assistance to the Iranian axis in recent years,” Adraee said. Moreover, Adraee added that Liwa al-Imam al-Hussein “entered into a confrontation with the IDF on the Lebanese border in recent weeks, and is participating in offensive attacks on Israeli sovereignty.”
Liwa al-Imam al-Hussein is reportedly also active in the Damascus region and is considered to be a Syrian branch of Lebanese Hezbollah. During the Syrian civil war, its primary objective was to allegedly safeguard the Sayyida Zainab shrine, and it has notably been involved in the East Ghouta operation. Liwa Assad Allah al-Ghalib and other Iraqi Shi’a militias have collaborated with this brigade and the group aligns itself with influential Iraqi Shi’ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s beliefs.
In September, Israeli intelligence reportedly warned that fighters of Liwa al-Imam al-Hussein were actively working to attack the Jewish state and were involved in smuggling Iranian-made weapons into Syria, which included drones, surface-to-surface missiles, and surface-to-air missiles.
Consequently, the mounting evidence of foreign fighters entering Lebanon is noteworthy. On Oct. 22, Islamic Jihad published a statement acknowledging that two members of its Syrian branch were killed in southern Lebanon fighting Israel.
Iran-backed militias are threatening to expand the conflict beyond Israel’s borders. Ansar Allah, the Iranian ally also known as the Houthis, have launched at least three barrages of missiles and drones towards Israel from Yemen over the past several weeks. And a host of Iran-backed Syrian and Iraqi militias have targeted U.S. bases in dozens of attacks in Iraq and Syria, primarily with rockets and drones, in an effort to drag the U.S. into the fight.
The Iran-backed militias serve as a strategic reserve for Iran in its war against Israel. These militias, most of which are battle hardened by decades of fighting, can reinforce Hezbollah and other Palestinian groups in Lebanon and Syria with tens of thousands of fighters if they are committed to the fight.
*Joe Truzman is a research analyst at FDD's Long War Journal focused primarily on Palestinian militant groups and Hezbollah. Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of FDD's Long War Journal.

US intel suggests Syria’s Assad agreed to send Russian missile system to Hezbollah with Wagner group help
AP/CNN/November 03/2023
The US has intelligence that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has agreed to provide the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah with a Russian-made missile defense system, according to two people familiar with the intelligence.
The Russian mercenary organization Wagner Group, which operates in Syria, has been tasked with carrying out the delivery of the surface-to-air SA-22 missile system, the people said. It is not clear whether it has already been delivered or how close it is to delivery. The system was originally provided by Russia for use by the Syrian government, the sources said. One of the sources said the US has been monitoring recent movement of the system, which is also known as a Pantsir. The other source said the US assessment was based partly on intelligence obtained about discussions among Assad, Wagner, and Hezbollah about the delivery of the system. The Wall Street Journal previously reported that Wagner may provide the system to Hezbollah. Assad’s role has not been previously reported. Wagner and Hezbollah fighters have both operated in Syria for years, where they have been working alongside Russian and Syrian armed forces to bolster the Assad regime against the Syrian opposition. Hezbollah began to pull its fighters out in recent years, but the group is also backed by Iran, which is a close Assad ally. A third source familiar with western intelligence said there was evidence of increasing collaboration between Hezbollah and Wagner in Syria. The possibility that Hezbollah could soon have a new air defense system comes amid concerns that the militants are considering opening a new front in Israel’s war on Hamas, on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. The US has repeatedly warned Hezbollah and other Iran-backed groups to stay out of the conflict and has positioned aircraft carriers and troops in the region to try to deter against a potential escalation. Israel has also targeted these missile systems inside of Syria before, as part of broader Israeli attacks on Iranian military sites in the country. It is not clear how much influence Russia had over the decision to provide the system to Hezbollah. Since the death of Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in August, the Kremlin has made some attempts to absorb Wagner mercenaries and the group’s assets. But as of late September, the US had not seen a decisive shift in terms of the Kremlin taking full ownership over the fighters, CNN previously reported. Russia did, however, host Hamas leaders in Moscow earlier this month, sparking outrage by the Israeli government. The US intelligence community believes – for now – that Iran and its proxies are calibrating their response to Israel’s military intervention in Gaza to avoid direct conflict with Israel or the US, while still exacting costs on its adversaries, CNN reported on Thursday. But Iran does not maintain perfect control of its umbrella of proxy groups, officials say, in particular over Hezbollah. Hezbollah is an ally of Hamas, the group that attacked Israel on October 7, and has long positioned itself as fighting against Israel. US officials are deeply concerned that the group’s internal politics may cause Hezbollah to escalate simmering tensions.

Lebanon is revisiting the ghost of the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war
Nadim Shehadi/Arab News/November 03, 2023
Like the people of Gaza, Lebanon feels powerless and hostage to an armed militia that could drag it into a destructive war it does not want and for objectives that go beyond its borders.
Watching the horror of the Israeli attack on Gaza, many Lebanese are reliving the nightmare of the destruction of their own country in the Israel-Hezbollah war of July-August 2006. This followed another war in Gaza after Hamas militants abducted Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in a cross-border raid.
Hamas and Hezbollah appear to have the same playbook. On July 12, 2006, in another cross-border raid, Hezbollah fighters killed eight Israeli soldiers and abducted two, which triggered the second Lebanon war.
Hezbollah and Hamas originated in two different, even opposing, Islamist militant schools. Hamas branched out from the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and Hezbollah is part of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s export of the Iranian revolution. Members of both groups had the opportunity to mingle in 1992 when Israel deported about 400 senior Hamas figures to a camp near the village of Marj Al-Zuhur in south Lebanon.
For about a year they met and bonded before Israel took Hamas leaders back. Hamas’s ally, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, is a creation of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards, who are also behind the creation of Hezbollah. Relations were consolidated in Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon, where both groups were allied with Syria against the mainstream Palestinian organizations Fatah and the PLO.
The main rift is about the Oslo peace deal, which was negotiated by the PLO and opposed by Hamas and by Hezbollah both part of the so-called “axis of resistance” led by Iran which rejects any peace with Israel. The parallel between 2006 and 2023 is that in both cases wars were started to reestablish the dominance of the doctrine of armed resistance over that of peaceful negotiations.
The 2006 Gaza war disrupted the signing of a document of national reconciliation by Mahmoud Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh. This was known as the “prisoners’ document” negotiated by prominent political prisoners in Israeli jails, under which Hamas and the PLO would both join efforts for the creation of a Palestinian state and peace with Israel. The 2006 Lebanon war also happened when Hezbollah was in a corner and needed to reestablish its resistance credentials. It faced the argument that both Syria and Israel had withdrawn from Lebanon, whichwas back under international protection. Hezbollah was under pressure to give up its arms and join the political process. Igniting a war with Israel was its answer. In Hamas’s terms, the attack on southern Israel last month succeeded beyond expectations. Again, it was a surprise cross-border raid with the capture of hostages, but on a much larger scale than before. It also threw a spanner into the works of possible Saudi-Israeli rapprochement and the Abraham accords, and broughtthe whole region to the brink of war.
Seventeen years after that hot summer of 2006, we find both Hamas and Hezbollah having gained almost complete political control. Their victory is total but it is not against Israel, it is against their internal rivals
It was a shock to the Israeli system and triggered a brutal reaction in which the victims are mainly innocent civilians in Gaza. If the intention was to provoke a war and then international rage at the predictable Israeli response, then Israel has fallen into that trap again with every massacre it commits.
Israel’s double defeat in both cases is that it sets itself the impossible objective of eradicating an enemy thatnot only cannot be militarily defeated, but also emerges stronger by the very fact of its survival.
Hamas’s victory is not over Israel, but over its Palestinian rivals the PLO and Fatah. The result is the total marginalization of the Palestinian Authority under Mahmoud Abbas. Hamas has now established itself as the main interlocutor. Hezbollah’s victory is against its political opponents, who are now isolated from their allies in the West and the Gulf.
In Lebanon, the government and state institutions are irrelevant; people are hanging on Hassan Nasrallah’s words and trying to interpret his silence, while the US sends aircraft carriers to the region in anticipation of his decisions.
Such armed guerrilla movements be defeated only politically. They follow the textbook model created by revolutionaries such as Mao Zedong and Che Guevara, which prescribes three simple steps: infiltrate the population, deal a heavy blow to the enemy whose retaliation causes massive civilian casualties, and the outrage caused by the slaughter rallies people around the guerrillas and dents the reputation of the enemy.
As a result of these wars, both Hamas and Hezbollah have destroyed state institutions and built their own parallel ones. Both have used the same violent tactics of assassinations, paralysis and maintaining a state of war while creating conditions of siege and isolation in which they also control resources.
There is no good outcome for Lebanon: war will be destructive at a time when the country’s medical infrastructure is weak and its economy and banking system have collapsed. The country will be turned into another Gaza with little prospect of recovery.
A state of no war is not much better. If Israel backs off, Hezbollah will claim victory and say its arms were a deterrent and its alliance with Iran protected the country. Its control will be almost total, with no prospect of discussing a return to sovereign state institutions.The third option of long-term instability on the border with Israel and periodic exchanges of violence meanscontinuous isolation, a slow death for the economy and an exodus of talents from which the country may never recover.
Seventeen years after that hot summer of 2006, we find both Hamas and Hezbollah having gained almost complete political control. Their victory is total but it is not against Israel, it is against their internal rivals. They have hijacked their societies and hold their finger on the trigger that can ignite a third world war.
• Nadim Shehadi is a Lebanese economist. X: @Confusezeus

Will harm to Lebanon’s environment, public health force Israeli military to admit and end use of white phosphorus?
TAREK ALI AHMAD & AHMAD BAYDOUN/Arab NewsNovember 03, 2023
Impact Assessment Overview: Analyzing the scale of destruction from two white phosphorus shell detonations over Ayta Al Shab, with impact zones estimated through photographic scale references.
Arab News has independently verified images of attacks using advanced open-source intelligence tools
The Israeli military maintains it only uses the incendiaries as a smokescreen and not to target civilians
LONDON/AMSTERDAM: Along Lebanon’s southern border with Israel, stretching from coastal Naqoura in the west to Houla in the east, adjacent to the UN-administered Blue Line, visitors have long been greeted by a striking vista of green-blanketed mountains. Today, however, whole swathes of this landscape, covered with oaks, pines, and trees abundant with apples and olives, have been left barren — scorched by white phosphorus, allegedly rained upon the hills by Israeli forces to deprive Hezbollah militants of tree cover. Since the Hamas attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7, Hezbollah fighters sympathetic to the Palestinian militant group have been trading fire with Israeli forces along the border, raising fears of a new front in the Gaza conflict and a wider regional escalation. Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, gave a live-streamed speech on Friday in Beirut’s Ashura Square in which he praised the Oct. 7 attack, but stopped short of announcing that his followers had fully joined the Israel-Hamas war.
Geolocation Analysis: Identifying the impact sites of two white phosphorous attacks on civilian areas, using photographic evidence cross-referenced with online images and satellite imagery for precise geolocation.
He did however warn that fighting on the Lebanon-Israel border would not be limited to the scale seen so far and that further escalation in the north was a “realistic possibility.”
Despite urgent appeals for calm from the UN Interim Force in Lebanon stationed along the Blue Line, marks of these initial skirmishes between Israel and Hezbollah are already visible on the landscape. About 40,000 hectares of green field and agriculture — including 40,000 olive trees — have been burned on the Lebanese side of the border in recent weeks, according to sources close to Lebanon’s Ministry of Environment.
Key Map Overview: Locations in the Naqoura region marked to show the sites of before and after imagery, capturing the areas affected by fires resulting from Israeli shelling. “They really want to burn everything in front of them so that they see more clearly. And they won’t allow Hezbollah or the Lebanese army to hide behind those greeneries or bushes,” Najat Aoun Saliba, a Lebanese lawmaker and chemistry professor at the American University of Beirut, told Arab News.
According to human rights monitor Amnesty International, the Israel Defense Forces have been using shells containing white phosphorus — an incendiary weapon — against targets inside Lebanon.
“It is beyond horrific that the Israeli army has indiscriminately used white phosphorus in violation of international humanitarian law,” Aya Majzoub, deputy regional director for the Middle East and North Africa at Amnesty International, said in a report published on Tuesday. “The unlawful use of white phosphorus in Lebanon in the town of Dhayra on Oct. 16 has seriously endangered the lives of civilians, many of whom were hospitalized and displaced, and whose homes and cars caught fire.”
Arab News has independently verified footage and images provided by environmental activists and residents using advanced open-source intelligence techniques. This process involves geolocation of the images and videos, time-series analysis to confirm their recency and cross-referencing with open-access satellite imagery. By overlaying these images on satellite maps and analyzing the color spectrum for events like fires, Arab News can authenticate the location, timing, and events captured in the images, ensuring the information’s accuracy and authenticity.
The Israeli military maintains that it uses the incendiaries only as a smokescreen, and not to target civilians. In a statement to the Associated Press in October, it said the main type of smokescreen shells it uses “do not contain white phosphorus,” but it did not rule out its use in some situations. White phosphorus, when exposed to oxygen in the air, burns at extremely high temperatures, illuminating targets concealed in darkness. When burning, it also creates a dense white cloud that militaries often use to mask maneuvers, but which can be lethal if inhaled.
People who have been exposed to white phosphorus “suffer respiratory damage, organ failure and other horrific and life-changing injuries, including burns that are extremely difficult to treat and cannot be put out with water,” according to the Amnesty report.
Lebanese lawmaker Saliba described the effect of the chemical agent on the human body. “White phosphorus is able to dissolve the skin, meaning that it will eat up the skin all the way to the bones and this is higher than third or fourth degree burning,” she told Arab News. “You may not feel it the first day but the second day it will create this stomach ache and then vomiting and then you know that the phosphorus is inside your body, and there is very little you can do to save yourself from it.”
Saliba said that the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health has been making preparations to treat patients who may come into contact with white phosphorus, and has launched awareness campaigns for those living close to the border and other targeted areas.
The Amnesty report detailed accounts of those treated at hospitals near the towns Dhayra, Yarine and Marwahin, where white phosphorus shelling has allegedly taken place. “We were not able to see even our own hands due to the heavy white smoke that covered the town all night long and lasted till this morning (Oct. 17),” the regional director of the country’s civil defense told Amnesty.
Beyond the immediate harm caused by white phosphorus to human health and public infrastructure, the weapon can also have a long-term impact on the environment. This is having a devastating impact on the farming communities who have tilled Lebanon’s fertile hills for generations. “Israel is purposefully tearing apart the ecosystem and destroying a land that’s been preserved for hundreds of years,” Hisham Younes, director of the Green Southerners, a civil society group that aims to preserve wildlife and cultural heritage in the south of Lebanon, told Arab News.
“What’s happening is the destruction of heritage and culture. The danger is great but the effects even greater.”Southern Lebanon suffered massive ecological damage during the last large-scale confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006. More than one thousand hectares of forest and olive grove were destroyed by explosives and bushfires, according to a 2007 study by the Association for Forests, Development and Conservation.It took four years to begin repairing the damage, with UNIFIL establishing an extensive reforestation project in the region in 2010. This time, however, the country may not be able to bounce back so easily.
“We have not recovered from the Beirut blast, and have not recovered from the 2006 war even,” said Saliba, referring to the Aug. 4, 2020 explosion at the Port of Beirut, which devastated a whole district of the Lebanese capital. The disaster compounded the woes of a country already in the grips of its worst ever financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic and a state of political paralysis, which has prevented lawmakers from establishing a new government. Given Lebanon’s weakness, combined with Israel’s military superiority, Saliba believes only diplomacy can save the Lebanese people and their environment from disaster and destruction. “I think Israel has used criminal or banned weapons everywhere. They’re not going to have mercy on us. So, if there is any way we can save the country from this devastation by doing all the diplomatic efforts, I think we should,” she said. “It’s a historic moment and we should not spare any chance, any opportunity, to save the country from this war.”

Hezbollah's Nasrallah refrains from entering Israel-Hamas war, praises Iraq, Yemen proxies
Beatrice Farhat/Al Monitor/November 3, 2023
BEIRUT — The head of the powerful paramilitary Hezbollah movement in Lebanon broke his silence on Friday after nearly a month of skirmishes on the Lebanese-Israeli border amid the ongoing Hamas-Israel war, betting on a Hamas “victory” in the conflict and praising recent attacks by affiliated groups in Iraq and Yemen. “The end of this battle will be Gaza’s victory, and the defeat of this enemy,” said Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's secretary-general, in a much-anticipated televised speech amid growing concerns over the potential of the war in the Gaza Strip to evolve into a wider regional conflict. In the speech broadcast to thousands of supporters gathered at various locations in Lebanon, including Dahiyeh, Hezbollah’s main stronghold in Beirut's southern suburbs, Nasrallah warned that the situation on the Lebanese front hinges on Israel’s actions in the Gaza Strip and in Lebanon, but refrained from declaring any official intervention in the war. “Our Lebanese front is open to all possibilities,” he said. “We should all be ready and prepared for all possibilities and scenarios to come.” Nasrallah added that an expanded war was a “realistic possibility.”The Hezbollah leader had remained silent since the flare-up along the Israel-Lebanon border began, one day after the surprise Hamas attack into southern Israel on Oct. 7 that left more than 1,400 people, mostly civilians, dead.
Hezbollah has in recent weeks targeted Israeli positions with anti-tank missiles, and more than 50 of the group's fighters have been killed. Hamas’ so-called Operation Al-Aqsa Flood prompted an intense Israeli response targeting the Gaza Strip, where more than 9,000 people have been killed, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry in the enclave. Claims have emerged that Iran gave Hamas a green light to attack Israel, accusations the Islamic Republic denies. Today Nasrallah denied claims that Hezbollah had a hand in the attack, calling Hamas' incursion into Israel “100% Palestinian in terms of decision and execution.” “Even the Palestinians had kept it secret even from their fellow Palestinian resistance factions in Gaza, let alone other resistance factions across the resistance axis,” Nasrallah said. In the past weeks, Iran’s proxies in the region have launched missiles toward Israel and US bases in the region in a show of support for Hamas and to protest Israel's relentless bombardment of the Gaza Strip.
Houthi rebels in Yemen this week fired several missiles and drones toward Eilat, Israel’s southernmost city on the Red Sea. The Israeli military intercepted them. In a statement on Thursday, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a coalition of Iraqi pro-Iranian Shiite armed groups, announced the start of a new phase of operations against Israel in support of Hamas. The group had claimed responsibility for several attacks against US military positions in Syria and Iraq in past weeks. Nasrallah accused the United States of direct involvement in the war in Gaza and of being responsible for the “massacres” being carried out in the Palestinian enclave and elsewhere in the region in past years. “We salute the Iraqi and Yemeni hands that have entered the head of this blessed battle,” Nasrallah said, addressing his supporters. He further praised the attacks on US bases by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq.
Commenting on concerns about an all-out war with Israel, Nasrallah said, “For those who are asking Hezbollah to engage in open warfare, what is happening on the border may appear moderate, but that is not the case. And we will not be content with this.”
He added, “The operations on the border have led to a state of fear and panic among the [Israeli] and American leaderships that the front will head toward further escalation or lead to a large-scale war. This is a realistic possibility that could happen, and the enemy must take it into serious consideration.”
Days after the Hamas attack on Israel, the United States deployed an aircraft carrier strike group led by the USS Gerald R. Ford to the Eastern Mediterranean, followed by the USS Eisenhower and the USS Mount Whitney. The Biden administration has vowed unconditional support for Israel’s campaign to eliminate the Hamas movement and warned Iran against escalating the Hamas-Israel war. “We received messages that the US will bomb Lebanon and even Iran if we continue our operations in southern Lebanon,” Nasrallah said. “We tell them, ‘Your warships in the Eastern Mediterranean do not scare us and never scared us before.’” Nasrallah's speech coincided with a visit by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Israel on Friday, his fourth since Oct. 7. “With regard to Lebanon, with regard to Hezbollah, with regard to Iran — we have been very clear from the outset that we are determined that there not be a second or third front opened in this conflict,” Blinken told reporters in Tel Aviv. “We’re committed to deterring aggression from any part, and we’ll take the steps necessary to deal with it.”

Weak Hezbollah speech shows who is really in charge
Paul Nuki/The Telegraph/November 3, 2023
Hassan Nasrallah insisted the Oct 7 attacks on Israel were “100 per cent Palestinian” -
There have not been many occasions like it, fewer still for the speech of an unelected cleric and militia leader. Across the Middle East, people stopped to tune in to the pronouncement of Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah at 3pm on Friday.
Would he open a second front in the Israel-Hamas conflict, hurling the region into much wider conflagration, one that could in turn spark a new world war? In East Jerusalem, the streets fell quiet during the hour-long speech, with only the rhythmic tones of Nasrallah’s voice emanating from thousands of mobile phones and radios. In the end, as one social media user noted, it was a “nothing burger”. The Palestinian receptionist at my hotel breathed a deep sigh of relief, along with many others in the region. That so much could hang on one man’s word is truly terrifying.
Nasrallah kicked off by distancing himself, Hezbollah and - most crucially - his paymaster, Iran, from having anything to do with the Oct 7 massacre. It was “100 per cent Palestinian,” he said, and it was planned in “great secrecy”.
“This great, large-scale operation was purely the result of Palestinian planning and implementation”. In short, “It had nothing to do with me, guv,” he seemed to be saying.
He was conscious the Arab street was hanging on his every word; an awkward position for someone who, at one and the same time, wants to be seen as flying the flag of the Palestinian cause, while avoiding the decimation Hamas has brought upon itself in Gaza. He got around this with the (largely) rhetorical flourish of claiming he and his Hezbollah fighters had been involved in the war since day two. “Some claim Hezbollah is about to join the fray. I tell you: We have been engaged in this battle since October 8,” he said. It’s true that skirmishes have been taking place in southern Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah since Oct 8, but both sides have so far been careful not to escalate things into all-out war. Indeed, Nasrallah seemed more concerned about preventing a preemptive strike against Hezbollah in Lebanon, something that some in Israel’s military have been openly talking about once the war in Gaza is finished. “I tell the Israelis, if you are considering carrying out a preemptive attack against Lebanon, it will be the most foolish mistake you make in your entire existence,” he said. Nasrallah used another clever flourish to excuse himself from further involvement, lest his colleagues in Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance” feel let down. “He said it was a war Israel can not win, something that signals Hezbollah’s intervention is not needed,” said Sima Shine, an Iran specialist and former Mossad intelligence officer. Others at Israel’s Institute of National Security Studies, where Ms Shine now works, noted that it also meant Nasrallah was, to some extent, “leaving his options open”.
‘Hezbollah is their nuclear option’
Overall, the speech seemed to confirm conventional intelligence thinking in the region as regards Hezbollah and Iran. That is to say, Iran does not want to lose its biggest and most powerful asset in the region, lest it be left without geopolitical leverage and a military deterrent against Israel. “Iran has many proxies in the region but Hezbollah is their nuclear option”, as Ms Shine puts it. Not everyone will be breathing a sigh of relief, however. Nasrallah said the attacks against US assets in Syria and elsewhere in the region would continue. This, said Ms Shine, was an indirect way of applying pressure on Israel for a ceasefire - something that might yet enable Hamas to survive as an Iranian proxy in Gaza. Israel, however, seemed to anticipate that. Just moments after Nasrallah wrapped up, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would not agree to a “temporary truce” without the release of all the hostages being held by the group. He added a warning to Hezbollah, cautioning Israel’s “enemies in the north” not to make the mistake of escalating the war. “You cannot imagine how much this will cost you,” Mr Netanyahu said. Looking today at Gaza, you would be a fool to think he hasn’t got a point - and Nasrallah’s no fool.

Nasrallah says open war with Israel possible, threatens US fleet in Mediterranean
Naharnet/November 03/2023
Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Friday warned Israel against attacking Lebanon, saying "all options" are on the table and that the chance of open conflict is "realistic." "All options are open on our Lebanese front," Nasrallah said, in a highly-anticipated televised speech commemorating the Hezbollah fighters who have been killed in clashes on the Lebanese-Israeli border since October 8.
"We say to the enemy that might think of attacking Lebanon or carrying out a pre-emptive operation, that this would be the greatest foolishness of its existence," he added.
Hezbollah is prepared for all options, Nasrallah warned, “and we can resort to them at any time.” The fighting on the Lebanon-Israel border would “not be limited” to the scale seen until now, he added. “Some say I’m going to announce that we have entered the battle," Nasrallah said. "We already entered the battle on Oct. 8,” he added, noting that Hezbollah's cross-border strikes have pulled away Israeli forces that would otherwise be focused on Hamas in Gaza. “I warn the Zionist enemy against pressing on with the attacks that target civilians, and this will return us to the ‘civilian for civilian’ rule,” he warned. “The development of things on the southern front is linked to the course and development of the events in Gaza and the Zionist enemy's behavior towards Lebanon,” Nasrallah pointed out. Noting that “what's happening on our Lebanese front did not even happen during the (2006) July War,” Nasrallah added that “what is happening on our front is important and very influential.”“But anyhow we will not settle for it,” Nasrallah added, signaling that Hezbollah might escalate its attacks in the coming days.
“Some might find what is happening on our front to be moderate, but if you look at it objectively, you will find it to be important and very big,” he said.
Nasrallah also told the United States that his Iran-backed group is ready to face its warships and that the way to prevent a regional war is to halt the attacks in Gaza.
"Your fleet in the Mediterranean does not scare us... We are ready to face the fleet you threaten us with," Nasrallah said, addressing the United States. "Whoever wants to prevent a regional war must quickly stop the aggression on Gaza," he added.
Nasrallah also criticized the strong U.S. backing of Israel in its bombardment of Gaza that has killed more than 9,000 people, mostly civilians. While U.S. officials in recent days have pushed more publicly for protecting civilians in Gaza, they have yet to call for a cease-fire. The Hezbollah leader said U.S. President Joe Biden had made a “fake argument that Hamas cut off children’s heads (without) evidence, but stayed silent for the thousands of children in Gaza who were decapitated and their limbs were torn apart” by Israeli bombing. “You Americans can stop the aggression against Gaza because it is your aggression,” he added. As for Hamas' unprecdented and massive operation against Israel on October 7, Nasrallah stressed that “the decision of this great and blessed battle was 100% Palestinian and those who did it concealed it from the other Palestinian factions and the forces in the region.” “This is a purely Palestinian battle and it is not related to any regional or international file,” he said. “The Islamic Republic of Iran publicly supports resistance movements in Lebanon and Palestine, but it does not practice any hegemony on them,” he pointed out.
Nasrallah added: “Our shouldering of the responsibility, resilience and patience will achieve certain victory. Gaza will triumph, Palestine will triumph and we will soon meet to celebrate that.”Nasrallah’s speech had been widely anticipated throughout the region as a sign of whether the Israel-Hamas conflict would spiral into a regional war, following weeks of limited exchanges between the Lebanese group and Israeli forces on the Lebanon-Israel border. Nasrallah's address comes a day after the most significant escalation in clashes between Hezbollah and Israeli forces on the Israel-Lebanon border since the war started -- and on the same day as a visit to Israel by the top U.S. diplomat. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to urge protections for civilians in the fighting with Hamas, as Israeli troops tightened their encirclement of Gaza City.
Hamas leaders have been pushing — sometimes publicly — for Hezbollah to widen its involvement in the war. Nasrallah met last week in Beirut with senior Hamas official Saleh al-Arouri and with Ziad Nakhaleh of the allied group Islamic Jihad.
However, Hezbollah officials have avoided publicly setting a specific red line, saying vaguely that they would join the war if they see that Hamas is on the verge of defeat. So far, Hezbollah has taken calculated steps to keep Israel’s military busy on its border with Lebanon, but not to the extent of igniting an all-out war. The Israeli military said seven of their soldiers and one civilian had been killed on the northern border as of Friday. More than 50 Hezbollah fighters and 10 militants with allied groups, as well as 10 civilians, including a Reuters journalist, have been killed on the Lebanese side of the border.
Israel considers the Iran-backed group its most serious immediate threat, estimating that Hezbollah has around 150,000 rockets and missiles aimed at Israel, as well as drones and surface-to-air and surface-to-sea missiles.
But a full-on conflict would also be costly for Hezbollah, which fought a 34-day war with Israel in 2006 that ended with a draw — but not before Israeli bombing reduced swaths of southern Lebanon, the eastern Bekaa Valley and Beirut’s southern suburbs to rubble. A new all-out war would also displace hundreds of thousands of Hezbollah’s supporters and cause wide damage at a time when Lebanon is in the throes of a historic four-year economic meltdown.

Sayyed Nasrallah's Speech Text From Al Manar Hezbollah Web Site/Sayyed Nasrallah Warns: All Scenarios Open for Our Front, We’re Ready
Al-Manar English Website/Batoul Wehbe/Subtitles by Mohamed Salami/November 03/2023
Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah’s words resonated today, Friday, with a sense of urgency and determination, shedding light on various facets of the current conflict and the resistance’s unwavering commitment to their cause.
In a televised, long-awaited address, Sayyed Nasrallah emphasized that all options are on the table in response to Israel’s aggression against Gaza, asserting that those seeking to prevent a regional war must act swiftly to stop the Israeli attacks on Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, and reiterating Hezbollah’s readiness for all possible scenarios. His speech, which was delivered during an honoring celebration organized by Hezbollah for the martyrs who sacrificed their lives in the battle against Zionists “All the Way to Al-Quds”, delved into the recent Israeli aggression on Gaza and all the related developments, twenty eight days since the Operation Al-Aqsa Flood started.
topics of Sayyed Nasrallah speech
Martyrs All the Way to Al-Quds
Addressing a large and esteemed audience at the event in Lebanon, the region, and the world, Sayyed Nasrallah extended a warm welcome and expressed gratitude for their participation in the ceremony dedicated to the memory of the martyrs. He conveyed heartfelt congratulations to the families of the martyrs for the honor their dear and beloved ones have received in the form of this divine recognition. His Eminence emphasized the unparalleled legitimacy of the ongoing conflict from human, moral, and religious perspectives, regarding this battle as a shining example of a holy struggle for the sake of Allah. He further extended his blessings and condolences to the families of martyrs in all the region, where martyrs have risen in the Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, a conflict that has now extended across multiple fronts and arenas. “We extend our heartfelt blessings and condolences to the families of the martyrs who have courageously risen in the Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, which has now engulfed multiple fronts and arenas.” This battle, Sayyed Nasrallah indicated, unquestionably transcends all levels, serving as one of the most vivid and compelling exemplars of a righteous struggle in the name of Allah. “If we were to seek a battle that embodies complete legitimacy from human, moral, and religious standpoints, none could rival the battle against the Zionist occupation of Palestine,” Sayyed Nasrallah reiterated. He highlighted the underlying strength of the resistance in their unwavering faith, profound awareness, unwavering commitment to the cause, and an extraordinary willingness to make sacrifices, which is inherent in the families of the martyrs. Sayyed Nasrallah also paid tribute to the resolute people of Gaza, acknowledging that mere words and statements cannot adequately express the resilience and might of Gaza’s population as well as those in the West Bank.
Hezbollah’s S.G. shed light on the dire conditions faced by the Palestinian people over the past 75 years. He particularly emphasized the challenging circumstances in recent years, exacerbated by the presence of the foolish, stupid, and brutal Israeli government. “The plight of the Palestinian people has been widely recognized for over 75 years, yet in recent times, the conditions in Palestine have grown increasingly dire, exacerbated by the presence of a misguided, irrational, and cruel Israeli government.”Continuing his remarks, he turned his attention to Gaza, where more than two million people have been enduring difficult living conditions for almost two decades. He decried the growing arrogance, tyranny, and oppression exhibited by the enemy, necessitating a significant event to challenge the usurping entity and its powerful supporters, notably in Washington and London. He also raised concerns about new settlement projects in the West Bank, underscoring the dangers they pose. “For nearly two decades, over two million people in Gaza have endured challenging living conditions, with little relief from the international community. The extremist Israeli government’s policies have only compounded the suffering, particularly for the prisoners, resulting in a severe humanitarian crisis,” Sayyed Nasrallah said. The Zionist regime imposed a devastating siege on Gaza following the Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on October 7. According to Gaza health authorities, the toll of the conflict is even more staggering, with at least 9,227 people martyred, including many women and children. Sayyed Nasrallah went on to extend his greetings to all those who stood in solidarity and provided support to the Palestinian cause from various regions, including Arab, Islamic, and Latin American countries. “We extend our heartfelt greetings to all those who stood in solidarity, offered support, and rallied from Arab, Islamic, and Latin American nations, we must particularly acknowledge the valor of the Iraqis and Yemenis, who have entered the very heart of this noble battle.”Special mention was made of the Iraqis and Yemenis, who actively engaged in this sacred battle, thus entering the heart of this momentous conflict. In this regard, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed the need for shared responsibility, recognizing that the developments have ushered in a new historical phase. “The consequences have far-reaching implications for the region, marking the onset of a new historical phase,” he said. “Words and statements fall short in capturing the profound greatness, resilience, and unwavering spirit of the people of Gaza and the West Bank,” His eminence pointed out.
Made in Palestine!
Sayyed Nasrallah went on to discuss the Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, emphasizing that it was meticulously planned and executed by Palestinians, with complete secrecy even from resistance factions in Gaza. The operation’s success hinged on the element of surprise, made possible by the tight-lipped approach of its orchestrators, as he said. “The remarkable and auspicious Al-Aqsa Flood Operation was entirely a product of Palestinian determination and execution, meticulously concealed from all, including the Gaza-based resistance factions, by its orchestrators. The operation’s unprecedented success was secured by the absolute secrecy surrounding it, which effectively leveraged the element of surprise.”He noted that this secrecy was well-received by all the resistance factions, and it did not hinder any decisions made by these groups. In fact, it underscored the authentic nature of the battle. “The concealment of the operation didn’t raise any concerns within the resistance factions. In fact, it garnered widespread praise and had no adverse effects on the decisions made by any group or resistance movement within the axis of resistance.” Sayyed Nasrallah added that the operation’s clandestine nature proves its exclusive Palestinian focus, unrelated to any regional or international agendas. “Hamas’s actions demonstrated the authentic nature of the battle and its objectives, thwarting attempts by enemies to distort the situation, especially in discussions concerning the relationships of regional resistance factions.”
“The secrecy surrounding the Operation Al-Aqsa Flood underscores its purely Palestinian character, dedicated to the cause of the Palestinian people and their concerns, free from any entanglements with regional or international matters,” he further said. Furthermore, he stressed that the Operation Al-Aqsa Flood revealed that Iran exerts no control over the resistance factions. Instead, the true decision-makers are the leaders and fighters of the resistance, dispelling any misconceptions about external influence on their actions. “The events of the Al-Aqsa Flood operation unequivocally demonstrate that Iran exerts no control over the resistance factions, with the true decision-makers being the leaders of the resistance and their dedicated fighters.”
Operation of Seismic Impact
The monumental achievements in the Al-Aqsa flood operation triggered a ‘seismic impact’ across various dimensions within the Zionist entity—ranging from security and political to psychological and moral, His eminence said. “The operation carried existential and strategic implications, whose reverberations will significantly influence the current and future trajectory of this entity.”“Regardless of the actions taken by the Israeli government in the past month and the weeks to come, it remains incapable of altering the enduring strategic consequences of the ‘Al-Aqsa Flood’ on their entity,” Sayyed Nasrallah asserted, adding that the Al-Aqsa Flood operation laid bare the entity’s vulnerabilities, exposing its fragility and demonstrating that it is indeed more fragile than a spider’s web. In holding the United States responsible for the ongoing conflict in Gaza, he highlighted the US government’s influence and its reluctance to support a ceasefire. “The US government’s influence is evident, and its reluctance to support a ceasefire is a concerning factor.”“The American administration, along with its president, ministers, and generals, swiftly intervened to support the destabilized entity, aiming to restore some semblance of stability; however, the entity has yet to reclaim the initiative and remains in a precarious state,” Hezbollah’s leader assured. “Even when American generals arrive to assist the entity and open their warehouses for the Israeli army, and ‘Israel’ requests 10 billion dollars from the outset, it raises questions about the entity’s true strength and its ability to regain stability and self-sufficiency.” These outcomes, as His eminence said, mark the onset of a new historical era for the destiny of regional nations, and there were no alternative options; hence, the choice made by the Palestinian resistance was not only correct and prudent but also imperative, timely, and deserving of all the sacrifices made. “In light of the events in Gaza and the harrowing ordeal that the Israeli enemy endured, it appears that their government is failing to learn from its past experiences.”Here, Sayyed Nasrallah resembled what’s happening nowadays in Gaza to what the Lebanese went through during the July 2006 War. “What is unfolding today bears a resemblance to previous occurrences, such as the events in Lebanon in 2006 and the recurring conflicts in Gaza, with variations in terms of scale and impact, but the fundamental nature of these events remains consistent.” “One of the pivotal errors that the Israelis have historically made, and continue to make, is establishing ambitious objectives that prove unattainable,” he said.
Crowds of Hezbollah supporters participating in Beirut’s southern suburb (Dahiyeh), the city of Nabatieh, Deir Qanun Al-Nahr, and Baalbek In 2006, Sayyed Nasrallah continued, “their aim was to eradicate the resistance in Lebanon and secure the release of the two prisoners without resorting to negotiation or exchange. However, over the course of 33 days, they failed to achieve these goals. Presently, the situation in Gaza mirrors this scenario, albeit with an escalation in terms of crimes and massacres.”His eminence expressed his solidarity with the people of Gaza, condemning the brutal attacks by the Israeli enemy and emphasizing the significance of the battle. “Our hearts are with the people of Gaza, and we condemn the enemy’s brutal attacks. The battle showcases the unwavering determination and courage of the Palestinian people.”Hezbollah’s S.G. reiterated that the resistance will not be intimidated by threats, and the battle is a reflection of the steadfastness, patience, and resolve of the Palestinian people. “The actions of the ‘Israeli’ in Gaza involve the loss of innocent lives with a significant portion of the casualties being civilian children and women, there appears to be no regard for the sanctity of human life as the Israelis are causing extensive destruction to entire neighborhoods,” Sayyed Nasrallah said, adding: “The images unfolding in Gaza each day and hour serve as a powerful message to the Zionists; they depict men, women, and children emerging from the rubble, their voices raised in support of the resistance, conveying the message that no result can be achieved through killing and massacres.”“The martyrs of Gaza, including its children and women, are today exposing the falsehoods that global and international media have, at times, contributed to concealing the reality of this entity,” he went on to say.
‘Israel’ = US Tool
In holding the United States responsible for the ongoing conflict in Gaza, he highlighted the US government’s influence and its reluctance to support a ceasefire. “The events unfolding in Gaza underscore the direct responsibility of the United States for the loss of life and the hypocrisy in their actions. The US government’s influence is evident, and its reluctance to support a ceasefire is a concerning factor.”The ongoing events in Gaza are a stark reflection of the brutal and barbaric nature of the usurping entity that has been implanted in our region, he said. “The harrowing scenes of massacres emanating from the Gaza Strip serve as a powerful message to the Zionists: the triumph of Gaza and the defeat of ‘Israel’,” Sayyed Nasrallah added. His eminence also said that the ongoing conflict in Gaza places the primary responsibility on the United States, with ‘Israel’ being perceived as a tool in this situation. “The United States is seen as obstructing efforts to halt the aggression against Gaza and rejecting any proposals for a ceasefire. The Americans are perceived as the orchestrators of the conflict in Gaza; consequently, the decision by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq to target US occupation bases in Iraq and Syria is regarded as a wise and bold move.”
Call for Action
The aftermath of the Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, as Sayyed Nasrallah mentioned in his historic speech, heralds a changed landscape, necessitating a shared responsibility from all parties. “The triumph of Gaza holds significance as a shared national interest for Egypt, Jordan, and Syria. Most notably, it is of paramount importance for Lebanon.” Calling for action from every free party in the world, Sayyed Nasrallah said: Efforts to halt the aggression against Gaza should go beyond mere condemnation; it is imperative to take decisive actions, such as severing diplomatic relations and recalling ambassadors.
He gave Yemen’s intervention in the battle against the Zionists as an example of solidarity with Palestinians. “Despite facing numerous threats, the Yemeni people have undertaken several initiatives, launching missiles and drones, even when intercepted. In the end, these missiles and drones are anticipated to reach Eilat and the Israeli military bases in southern Palestine,” he said.
Lebanon’s Share in the Conflict
The resistance operations in Lebanon were a point of commendation, and Sayyed Nasrallah explained how they have effectively deterred the enemy. Addressing those calling on Hezbollah to enter the battle in solidarity with Gaza, Sayyed Nasrallah said: We already embarked on this battle on October 8th. “Since October 8, the Islamic resistance in Lebanon has been actively engaged in a tangible battle, the full gravity of which is truly comprehensible only to those physically situated in the border region, a conflict that is distinguished by its unique circumstances, objectives, methods, and intended targets,” His eminence pointed out. What is unfolding on our Lebanese front will not be limited to it whatsoever, he said, “it will extend beyond that.”“The Lebanese front effectively diverted a significant portion of the Israeli forces originally intended for an attack on Gaza,” Sayyed Nasrallah mentioned in his speech. “Had we maintained a position of mere political solidarity and public demonstrations, the Israelis would have remained unchallenged on the northern border, allowing their forces to be deployed to Gaza. The Lebanese front successfully pulled approximately one-third of the Israeli army to the border with Lebanon.” “A significant portion of the Zionist forces deployed to the northern front comprises elite units, and nearly half of Israel’s naval capabilities are positioned in the Mediterranean, facing us and Haifa,” His eminence said. “A quarter of the Israeli air force has been redirected toward Lebanon, and almost half of the missile defense systems are oriented towards the Lebanon front, this has led to the displacement of tens of thousands of settlers in the region,” he added. On the repercussions of Hezbollah’s attacks, Sayyed Nasrallah explained: “The operations along the border have generated a sense of anxiety, tension, and panic within the Israeli enemy’s leadership, as well as among the Americans. The enemy is deeply concerned about the potential for further escalation on this front or the outbreak of a broader conflict, this is a very real possibility that should not be dismissed and the enemy must take it into serious consideration.” He also said that the resistance operations in the South serve as a deterrent to the enemy and send a clear message to any potential aggressor who might contemplate an attack on Lebanon or a preemptive operation. “Such actions would be the gravest folly in the history of the Israeli existence.”
Sayyed Nasrallah uncovered that Hezbollah was warned from intervening since the onset of the Palestinian battle. “From the very beginning, we were warned that opening a front in the South would lead to American airstrikes, yet this threat has never swayed our determination or position.” “We have initiated actions on this front, and its escalation and evolution hinge on two fundamental factors: The first one depends on the unfolding events in Gaza, and second on the conduct of the Zionist enemy towards Lebanon.”
He warned: “I caution the Zionist enemy against persisting with actions that have impacted some civilians in Lebanon, as this could lead to the equation where civilians are pitted against one another.”
All Options on Table
“All possibilities on our Lebanese front remain open, and every option is being considered and available for implementation at any given moment,” Hezbollah’s leader warned, adding “it is imperative for us to remain prepared for all potential future scenarios.”“Our efforts have successfully deterred the enemy, making it clear that any attempt to undermine Lebanon’s sovereignty will be met with strong resistance.”Sayyed Nasrallah cautioned that any attempt to undermine Lebanon’s sovereignty and security would be met with resolute resistance. He also warned against any misguided adventures in the region that could lead to further escalation. Addressing the US administration, Sayyed Nasrallah said: Your fleets in the Mediterranean do not and will never instill fear in us. I want to make it clear that the fleets you threaten us with, we have also made preparations to counter them. Further warning the US, Sayyed Nasrallah reminded them of their defeat in the early 80s. “Those who thwarted your plans in the early 1980s are still very much alive today, and alongside them are their children and grandchildren.” Those who aim to avert an American war should act promptly to halt the aggression against Gaza, he said. “In the event of a regional conflict, naval fleets and aerial warfare will prove futile and of no real benefit. In the event of any regional war, it’s important to acknowledge that your interests and soldiers will be the ones to suffer the most and endure the greatest losses.”
Triumph Eminent
In conclusion, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah’s address at the ceremony conveyed the resistance’s unwavering commitment to their cause, the regional repercussions of their actions, and the need for all parties to be prepared for any future developments. He maintained that despite the challenges, Gaza’s triumph and Palestine’s victory remain the ultimate goal, signalling hope for a brighter future and celebration of their collective success. Addressing the Palestinian people and the honorable resistance fighters in the region, Sayyed Nasrallah said: While we may require more time, it’s worth noting that we are currently achieving victories in different aspects, much like we did in 2006, in Gaza, and as the resistance in the West Bank has consistently accomplished achievements. This battle is characterized by resilience, patience, endurance, and the accumulation of achievements, all aimed at preventing the enemy from attaining its objectives. “It’s imperative that we all strive to cease the aggression against Gaza, ensuring the triumph of the resistance,” he assured, giving hope to Palestinians on their eminent triumph: “Based on my personal experience and interactions with Imam [Sayyed Ali] Khamenei, I can attest to his unwavering conviction and belief that Gaza will ultimately emerge victorious, and that Palestine will achieve triumph; he conveyed this to us during the initial days of the July aggression.”“Gaza will prevail, Palestine will triumph, and we will soon come together to celebrate this victory,” Sayyed Nasrallah ended up saying.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 03-04/2023
Netanyahu rules out Gaza cease-fire as Blinken presses for more aid, civilian protection
Arab News/November 03, 2023
GAZA/JERUSALEM: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Israel on Friday to ensure more humanitarian aid and do more to protect Palestinian civilians in Gaza or else there will be “no partners for peace.” Israel warned that it was on high alert for attacks on its border with Lebanon as fears grew that the conflict could widen. Israeli troops tightened their encirclement of Gaza City, the focus of their campaign to crush the enclave’s ruling Hamas militants, who launched a brutal attack on Israeli communities that started the war. But ever since that Oct. 7 assault, there have been concerns the conflict could ignite fighting on other fronts, and Israel and the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah have repeatedly traded fire along the Lebanon border. In his first public speech since the war began, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said his group had “entered the battle” with the past weeks’ unprecedented cross-border fighting. “We will not be limited to this,” he said, suggesting escalation was possible. Still, Nasrallah stopped short of announcing that Hezbollah is fully engaging in the war. Blinken, on his third trip to Israel since the war began, reiterated US support for Israel in the war, saying it has the right to defend itself. But he said a “humanitarian pause” was needed to boost aid deliveries to Palestinian civilians amid growing alarm over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. After meeting Blinken, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel “refuses a temporary cease-fire that doesn’t include a return of our hostages,” referring to some 240 people Hamas abducted during its attack. He said Israel was pressing ahead with its military offensive with “all of its power.”Blinken said there had to be a substantial and immediate increase in humanitarian aid to Gaza, where “we need to do more to protect Palestinian civilians.” Without that, “there are no partners for peace,” he said, adding that it was critical to restore the path toward a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict. Hezbollah, an ally of Hamas, attacked Israeli military positions in northern Israel with drones, mortar fire and suicide drones on Thursday. The Israeli military said it retaliated with warplanes and helicopter gunships, and spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said civilians were wounded in the Hezbollah attacks. “We are in a high state of readiness in the north, in a very high state of alert, to respond to any event today and in coming days,” he said.
Blinken said the US, which has deployed aircraft carriers and other forces in the eastern Mediterranean, was committed to ensuring that no “second or third front” opens in the conflict, referring to Hezbollah. In his speech, Nasrallah said his militia is not deterred by US warnings, saying: “Your fleets in the Mediterranean ... will not scare us.”A war with Hezbollah would be devastating for both Israel and Lebanon. Hezbollah is much stronger than Hamas, with an arsenal of some 150,000 rockets and missiles, some believed to be precision-guided weapons capable of striking deep inside Israel.
Israel has promised to unleash vast destruction in Lebanon if all-out war erupts, accusing Hezbollah of hiding its military installation in the midst of residential areas. The two enemies fought an inconclusive monthlong war in 2006. Renewed fighting could also risk drawing Iran, which backs both Hamas and Hezbollah, into the conflict. More than 9,200 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza so far, mostly women and minors, and more and than 23,000 people have been wounded, the Gaza Health Ministry said, without providing a breakdown between civilians and fighters.
More than 1,400 people have died on the Israeli side, mainly civilians killed during Hamas’ initial attack, when some 240 people were also taken hostage. Some 5,400 have also been injured.
Twenty-four Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza since the start of the ground operation. Since the start of the war, seven Israeli soldiers and a civilian have been killed in different incidents along Israel’s border with Lebanon.
BLINKEN’S LATEST TRIP
As American officials have before, Blinken pledged unwavering support for Israel and its right to defend itself. “We stand strongly for the proposition that Israel has not only the right but the obligation to defend itself, and to make sure that October 7 should never happen again,” said Blinken, who also plans to visit Amman, Jordan. It follows President Joe Biden’s suggestion for a humanitarian “pause” in the fighting. The aim would be to let in aid for Palestinians and let out more Palestinians who hold foreign passports and wounded. Around 800 people left Gaza over the past two days — the first time people departed the besieged territory other than four hostages released by Hamas and another rescued by Israeli forces. Blinken first held talks with Netanyahu behind closed doors before starting wider discussions with the leader and his War Cabinet and meeting with President Isaac Herzog.More than 3,700 Palestinian children have been killed in 25 days of fighting, according to the Health Ministry in Hamas-run Gaza. Bombardment has driven more than half the territory’s 2.3 million people from their homes. Food, water and fuel are running low under Israel’s siege, and overwhelmed hospitals warn they are on the verge of collapse. Israel has allowed more than 260 trucks carrying food and medicine into Gaza, but aid workers say it’s not nearly enough. Israeli authorities have refused to allow fuel in, saying Hamas is hoarding fuel for military use and would steal new supplies. White House national security spokesman John Kirby said the US was not advocating for a general cease-fire but a “temporary, localized” pause. Israel has not openly responded to Biden’s suggestion. But Netanyahu, who has previously ruled out a cease-fire, said Thursday: “We are advancing. … Nothing will stop us.” He vowed to destroy Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip.
Israel and the US seem to have no clear plan for what would come next if Hamas rule in Gaza is brought down — a key question on Blinken’s agenda during the visit, according to the State Department.
GAZA CITY ENCIRCLED
Meanwhile, military officials said Israeli forces have now completely encircled Gaza City, a densely packed cluster of neighborhoods that Israel says is the center of Hamas military infrastructure and includes a vast network of underground tunnels, bunkers and command centers. Israeli forces are “fighting in a built-up, dense, complex area,” said the military’s chief of staff, Herzi Halevy.Hagari, the military spokesperson, said Israeli forces were in “face to face” battles with militants, calling in airstrikes and shelling when needed. He said they were inflicting heavy losses on Hamas fighters and destroying their infrastructure with engineering equipment. Hamas’ military wing said early Friday that its fighters battled Israeli troops in several areas in Gaza and claimed they killed four soldiers on the northern edge of the city of Beit Lahiya. It also claimed to have destroyed several tanks with locally made anti-tank rockets. Neither the reports from Israel nor Hamas could be independently verified. Casualties on both sides were expected to rise as Israeli troops advance toward the dense residential neighborhoods of Gaza City. Israel has warned residents to immediately evacuate the Shati refugee camp, which borders Gaza City’s center. But hundreds of thousands of Palestinians remain in the path of fighting in northern Gaza, despite Israel’s repeated calls for them to flee. Many have crowded into UN facilities, hoping for safety. Still, four UN schools-turned-shelter in northern Gaza and Bureij were hit in recent days, killing 24 people, according to Philippe Lazzarini, general-secretary of the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, known as UNRWA. In the occupied West Bank overnight, Israeli forces killed seven Palestinians in different places and arrested many more, according to the Israeli military and Palestinian health officials.

Israel-Hamas war sees highest death toll for journalists in 31 years
Adam Lucente/Al Monitor/November 3, 2023
A funeral was held in the Gaza Strip Friday for Palestinian journalist Mohammad Abu Hatab, whose network said he was killed in an Israeli airstrike. Over 30 journalists have been killed in the Israel-Hamas war as of Friday, the majority of them Palestinians, making the conflict the deadliest for members of the press since 1992, two organizations said. As of Friday, the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) estimated that at least 36 journalists, most of whom were in Gaza, have been killed in the conflict. CPJ said the first few weeks of the war has been the deadliest period for journalists covering conflict since 1992, when it began tracking. Reporters Without Borders said on Wednesday that 34 journalists have been killed the start of the war. Hatab, a correspondent for Palestine TV, was laid to rest in Khan Yunis in southern Gaza. Several journalists including the deputy head of the Palestinian Journalists Syndicate, Tahseen Al-Astal, participated in the funeral. Astal called for international protection for journalists covering the war, the Palestinian Authority’s WAFA news agency reported. Palestine TV is a broadcaster also run by the PA, a rival of Hamas. Palestine TV reported on Thursday that Hatab and members of his family were killed by an Israeli airstrike that hit his home in the city. At least 11 people were killed in the strike, medical sources at the nearby Nasser Hospital told Agence France-Presse. Hatab’s colleagues reacted emotionally to his death on air. Israel has not commented on Hatab’s death. Why it matters: The Committee to Protect Journalists said on Friday that at least 36 journalists have been killed in the war between Israel and Hamas, counting 31 Palestinians, four Israelis and one Lebanese. The Palestinian journalists were mostly killed by Israeli airstrikes in Gaza, while the Israelis were killed by Hamas during its Oct. 7 assault in southern Israel. Lebanese journalist Issam Abdallah was killed in southern Lebanon on Oct. 13 by shelling coming from the direction of Israel, according to the organization’s preliminary investigation.Journalists working in Gaza are especially at risk due to Israeli airstrikes, disrupted communications and power outages, according to the committee. The Israel Defense Forces told Reuters and AFP last week that it cannot guarantee the safety of their journalists. Nearly 80% of killers of journalists go unprosecuted worldwide, the Committee to Protect Journalists said on Thursday. Syria has the worst record of all on impunity. Know more: The overall death toll in Gaza continues to rise amid Israel’s airstrikes and ground operations. The Hamas-run Health Ministry in the enclave said on Friday that 9,257 Palestinians, including 3,826 children and 2,405 women, have been killed in Israeli airstrikes since the war began. More than 1,538 people in Israel have been killed so far in the war, mostly by Hamas during its incursion into southern Israel, according to Israeli authorities. More than 200 people are being held by Hamas in Gaza.

By the numbers: The US military buildup in the Middle East
Haley Britzky and Will Mullery, CNN/November 3, 2023
The US has significantly strengthened its military posture in the Middle East amid concerns about the war between Israel and Hamas triggering a wider regional conflict. It has moved roughly 1,200 US service members to the region, alongside thousands of others aboard Navy carrier strike groups and a Marine Expeditionary Unit roughly 2,000 people strong. The move of significant firepower to the region aims to send a clear deterrence message to US adversaries. There have been frequent low-level attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria by Iranian-backed groups, but the US is aiming to make it crystal clear that wider attacks would provoke a major response. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said this month that the additional forces in the region were meant to “bolster regional deterrence efforts, increase force protection for US forces in the region, and assist in the defense of Israel.” “We will do everything and take all necessary measures to protect US forces and our interests overseas,” Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said on October 23. “Again, no one wants to see a widening conflict, and that is our primary goal, but we will also never hesitate to protect our forces.” The USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group is currently in the eastern Mediterranean after deploying last month. Included in the strike group are 6,000 sailors, the USS Gerald R. Ford — described by a Navy spokesperson as the “most adaptable and lethal combat platform in the world” — the Ticonderoga class guided missile cruiser USS Normandy (CG 60), and Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyers USS Thomas Hudner (DDG 116), USS Ramage (DDG 61), USS Carney (DDG 64), and USS Roosevelt (DDG 80).
The strike group also includes Carrier Wing 8, which is made up of nine squadrons, including a helicopter maritime strike squadron, four strike fighter squadrons, and an electronic attack squadron. The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group entered the Mediterranean Sea last weekend after being re-routed from the European theater. It is currently in the eastern Mediterranean, but it will soon makes its way to through the Suez Canal to the Middle East. The group, led by the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, includes 6,000 sailors, the Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Philippine Sea (CG 58), and Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers USS Mason (DDG 87) and USS Gravely (DDG 107). It also includes Carrier Air Wing Three, which is made up of nine squadrons including four strike fighter squadrons. The Eisenhower provides the ability for “maritime security operations, expeditionary power projection, forward naval presence, crisis response, sea control, deterrence, counter-terrorism, information operations, security cooperation and counter-proliferation,” a Navy spokesperson said. The USS Bataan Amphibious Ready Group, carrying the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit are currently in the Red Sea. Included in the Bataan ARG are 4,000 sailors and Marines aboard the Wasp-class amphibious assault ship the USS Bataan, which can carry more than 24 fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft. The Marines and sailors in the Marine Expeditionary Unit — roughly 2,000 of the 4,000 troops total in the ARG — are one of the US military’s primary crisis response forces, able to conduct “amphibious operations, crisis response, and limited contingency operations, to include enabling the introduction of follow-on forces and designated special operations,” according to a Navy spokesperson. The Marine rapid response force is also trained to assist in evacuation operations. A total of 1,200 US service members have been deployed or are deploying to the Middle East. Among that group are service members assigned to THAAD and Patriot batteries which were announced on October 21 to be deploying to the region, though it’s unclear where specifically they’ll be going. The Patriot and THAAD batteries are coming from Fort Liberty, North Carolina, Fort Sill, Oklahoma, and Fort Bliss, Texas. The Pentagon announced this week that another 300 troops would also be deploying, providing explosive ordnance disposal, communications, and other support capabilities for troops in the region. An unclear number of the troops deploying were in the original 2,000 service members put on prepare to deploy orders earlier this month. Among the force posture changes was the “rapid movement” into the US Central Command area of operations for US Air Force A-10 Thunderbolt II ground-attack jets, and F-15E Strike Eagle and F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets. It’s unclear how many each of aircraft are in the region. Air Force Lt. Gen. Alex Grynkewich, commander of Air Forces Central, said in a release this month that by “posturing advanced fighters and integrating with joint and coalition forces, we are strengthening our partnerships and reinforcing security in the region.”

Iran-backed Iraqi militias announce expanded attacks on US bases
Associated Press/November 3, 2023
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a coalition of Iran-backed Iraqi militias, announced Friday that it will launch a more “intense and expansive” phase of operations against U.S. bases in the region starting next week. It said the escalation is “in support of our people in Palestine and to avenge the martyrs” in the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.The group has launched a string of attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria in recent weeks, some of which have injured U.S. personnel. As of Tuesday, the Pentagon said there had been 27 rocket and drone attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria and that the U.S. was deploying an additional 300 troops to the Middle East to bolster those already there.

Hamas govt says deadly Israel strike hits near Gaza's biggest hospital
Agence France Presse/November 3, 2023
The government in Gaza said Friday an Israeli strike hit a convoy of ambulances, which the health ministry said killed multiple people near the territory's largest hospital. A government statement said Israeli forces targeted "a convoy of ambulances which was transporting the wounded", while the health ministry said several people were killed in the strike near Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City. An AFP journalist at the scene saw multiple bodies beside a damaged ambulance.

Trapped in hell: Palestinian civilians try to survive in northern Gaza, focus of Israel's offensive
DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip (AP)/November 3, 2023
When Israeli warplanes bombed the crowded Jabaliya refugee camp in northern Gaza this week, neonatal nurse Hudaa Ali Eldaor felt the vibration in her ward at the nearby Kamal Adwan Hospital. She heard the thunder and saw the smoke.
Then the wounded flooded in. Patients young and old filled the beds and then covered the floors — burns and shrapnel wounds, life-threatening abdominal bleeds, traumatic amputations. Eldaor snapped into crisis mode: Halt the bleeding. Resuscitate. Clean just enough to prevent sepsis. During the bedlam Wednesday, Eldaor caught a glimpse of two familiar faces coated with gray dust. She ran toward them, screaming. They were her boys, 7-year-old Kenan and 9-year-old Haidar. She buried them later that day, along with her sister, two brothers and three uncles. On Thursday, Eldaor was back at work, weeping between hospital rounds. “What was their fault? What was their guilt?” she asked. Weeks after ordering northern Gaza's 1.1 million inhabitants to evacuate south, the Israeli army is intensifying its bombardment of the area that stretches down toward the wetlands of Wadi Gaza, in the central strip. Israeli soldiers are also battling Hamas militants in close quarters just north of Gaza City — the start of what is expected to be a long and bloody ground invasion. Israel's ground operation, under cover of heavy tank and artillery fire, has stranded hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who remain in northern Gaza.
Residents say they are trapped in hell. "We are living in constant terror,” said Anas al-Sharif, a freelance journalist in Jabaliya who covered the heavy bombardment of the camp Tuesday and Wednesday. “It’s not one or two airstrikes. We are talking about eight, nine, 10 — I can’t even count, all in the same place. It’s a catastrophe.”The strikes killed dozens of people and reduced parts of the camp to ruins, pocked by massive bomb craters. The Israeli military said Wednesday's strike took out a Hamas control center and that Tuesday's hit a high-level Hamas commander who helped plan the Oct. 7 attack that killed more than 1,400 people in southern Israel. It also said the strikes hit a network of Hamas tunnels beneath the neighborhood, causing the buildings above to collapse. Critics say the vast destruction is evidence that Israel’s attacks are disproportionate and don’t take precautions to avoid civilians. Israel says it does not target civilians and blames Hamas for conducting military operations and launching rockets from crowded residential areas. “Even if there is a Hamas commander there, there is no justification to kill that many civilians and to create destruction like that,” said Shawan Jabarin, director of the Palestinian human rights group Al-Haq. Images from the strikes — blood-splattered children climbing over giant mounds of rubble, buildings sliced in half or flattened altogether, once-bustling streets erased by yawning craters — have resonated around the world. They have also struck a nerve within Gaza, where the Jabaliya camp is known for its violent resistance to Israeli military rule during the first and second Palestinian uprisings, starting in 1987. Jabaliya is the largest of the refugee camps in Gaza, where two-thirds of the population are descendants of Palestinians who fled or were driven from their homes during the war surrounding Israel's creation in 1948. At the time, some 700,000 Palestinians were uprooted. Over the generations, Jabaliya has grown into an overcrowded neighborhood of cement-block buildings that are home to 116,000 people, the U.N. Palestinian refugee agency estimates, squeezed into just half a square mile (1.4 square kilometers). “Jabaliya is more than a place, it’s a part of me. It's one massive family,” said Yousef Hammash, an aid worker with the Norwegian Refugee Council who was born in the camp. “It’s somewhere that as a Palestinian, you are proud to live and be from.”
Those refusing Israeli military evacuation orders and staying in northern Gaza say they have their reasons. Eldaor, like most medics struggling to save lives despite fuel and supply shortages, said she can't bear abandoning her patients.
Some families don’t have cars, or fuel to power them. Some have nowhere to go in the south, with its overflowing shelters and displacement camps. Palestinians are also hesitant to move where they don't know the lay of the land, for fear of finding themselves next to Hamas-affiliated buildings as Israel's bombardment escalates across both ends of the strip. Roughly 30,000 Palestinian evacuees returned to their homes in northern Gaza after concluding the south was no safer, the U.N. humanitarian office says.
“We have nothing to do with this war. So when it intensified and we got voice messages urging us to leave the north, we did,” said Nabil Saqallah, a radio journalist. He sought refuge with his large extended family in the southern city of Khan Younis only to watch Israeli airstrikes kill 18 of his relatives, ranging in age from 10 months to 47 years old. “And then what happened? Israeli warplanes turned our hope into the worst kind of sorrow.”Now with Israeli tanks spotted on the northern edges of Gaza City, it’s far too risky for residents to venture south. Israeli shelling from the ground and sea has repeatedly targeted motorists on the strip’s main north-south routes.
Israel says it has made every possible effort to persuade Palestinian civilians to head south. In a meeting with visiting U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday, Israel’s figurehead president, Isaac Herzog, said the military had gone to great lengths to persuade hundreds of thousands of Palestinian civilians to leave northern Gaza by showering the area with pamphlets urging evacuation and sending thousands of warnings by text. But Palestinians say the roads south are fraught with peril. On Friday, Israeli shells hit a convoy of evacuees, killing roughly a dozen Palestinians, doctors said. Footage from the road shows dead bodies of children encrusted with blood laying in the soft sand. All of their remaining personal belongings were scattered beside them — a few backpacks, a big stuffed animal and some canned food. Among the dead was a girl with her hair in a ponytail wearing a purple velvet sweater. “The medics had to leave more bodies in the middle of the road because they were coming under fire,” said freelance journalist Fuad Abu Khamad, who traveled with emergency workers to the site. The dangers have isolated northern Gaza. Truckloads of aid gradually crossing into the southern strip from Egypt can't make it north. Frequent internet and mobile network outages exacerbate the problems. “Israeli forces have cut Gaza into two parts,” said Hammash, the Jabaliya aid worker. “That means that the north gets less resources, less help, less food.”
Thousands of desperate Palestinians who fled their homes in the north or lost them to Israeli airstrikes have packed into hospitals in the area. Schools run by the U.N. Palestinian refugee agency in the north are also bursting at the seams, with 30,000 displaced Palestinians in the Jabaliya shelters. “Across the Gaza Strip, these shelters should be a safe haven, under the flag of the United Nations,” said Philippe Lazzarini, the agency’s commissioner general. On Thursday an explosion ripped through one of the shelters in Jabaliya, he said, killing 20 people who had sought refuge.

Israel approves transfer of tax revenues to Palestinian Authority
Rina Bassist/Al Monitor/November 3, 2023
The Israeli security cabinet on Thursday approved the transfer of tax payments to the Palestinian Authority, money that was collected and held by Israeli authorities. But out of the nearly $188 million of tax payments collected, Israel will deduct the stipends paid by the PA to Palestinian prisoners jailed in Israel and to their families (per legislation adopted by Israel’s Knesset in 2018). It will also deduct the funds the PA transfers to Gaza for former Fatah administrators who lost their positions when Hamas took over in 2006. This payment mechanism was first established in 1994, as part of the Paris Accords between Israel and the PLO. Israel collects tax revenues for products imported by the PA which arrive at Israeli ports or airports before being transferred to the West Bank. But over the years, what should have been a routine procedure turned into a political issue. Thursday's announcement by the security cabinet did not specify how much money will be indeed transferred. The security cabinet also decided that Israel will cut all contacts with Gaza. In other words, no Gazans will be permitted to work in Israel anymore. Any Gazan laborers present in Israel will be sent back to the strip. The move came as the situation in West Bank has become increasingly volatile, raising questions about the PA's control. The cabinet approved the decision despite pushback from far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, however, had stressed that the transfer of the funds to the Palestinian Authority is necessary, to pay the salaries of Palestinian security apparatus agents.

Blinken returns to Israel in bid to secure 'humanitarian pause' in Gaza
Rina Bassist/Al Monitor/November 3, 2023
Secretary of State Antony Blinken met Friday in Tel Aviv with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and participated in a meeting with Israel’s war cabinet, marking his fourth visit to Israel since the Hamas attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7. Blinken also met with President Isaac Herzog. Blinken was accompanied by Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf, State Department counselor Derek Chollet, State Department special envoy for Middle East humanitarian issues David Satterfield and US ambassador to Israel Jacob Lew. While meeting with Herzog, Blinken reiterated the United States' solidarity with Israel, saying, “Israel has not only the right but the obligation to defend itself . . . to make sure that this October 7 never happens again.”The secretary of state also reiterated that Palestinian “civilians caught in the crossfire of Hamas's making” must be protected and receive much-needed aid.  Blinken's first trip to Israel dealing with the conflict took place days after the Oct. 7 attack. His visit this time comes as the Biden administration pushes for a "humanitarian pause" in the conflict to allow more aid to enter the Gaza Strip and to permit foreigners to leave. The White House also finds itself increasingly concerned with avoiding a regional conflagration. The New York Times reported Friday that Blinken would urge the Israeli government to agree to a series of brief cessations of military operations in Gaza to facilitate a deal for the release of some 240 hostages held by Hamas in Gaza and for humanitarian aid to be distributed to civilians. At the war cabinet meeting attended by Blinken, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said there will be no cease-fire until Hamas releases all the hostages, Haaretz reported. The Biden administration is also “warning Israel with growing force that it will become increasingly difficult for it to pursue its military goals in Gaza as global outcry intensifies about the scale of humanitarian suffering there," CNN reported on Friday. Netanyahu and Blinken did not issue a public statement after their meeting, but the office of the premier said that the American delegation had viewed footage, facilitated by Israeli Defense Forces, documenting the killings perpetrated by Hamas in southern Israel. Netanyahu's office also released a statement to clarify that Israel would not allow fuel to enter the Gaza Strip, saying it fears fuel will be stolen by Hamas and used for military purposes. Earlier in the day, the IDF published a recording of what it said was a phone call of a Gazan medical official acknowledging that vast fuel reserves were being stored by Hamas under Gaza City’s al-Shifa Hospital. The Israeli leadership had been planning to share this and other information with Blinken during his visit, reported Kan, Israel's public broadcaster, on Friday.

After Israel attack, US follows Hamas trail of money
Elizabeth Hagedorn/Al Monitor/November 3, 2023
WASHINGTON — For Hamas, losing control of the Gaza Strip means losing its biggest source of revenue. The Palestinian militant group that attacked Israel on Oct. 7 was propped up for years by its main patron, Iran, a global portfolio of investments, and a network of private donors and financial facilitators. But since its violent takeover of Gaza in 2007, Hamas has generated vast sums through extortion and taxation in the impoverished coastal territory it governs. “When Hamas is the government, they’re able to tax,” said Matthew Levitt, a former US Treasury Department official specializing in counterterrorism and intelligence. “Money comes from Qatar, they tax it. Humanitarian goods come from the UN, they tax it.”“Hamas is likely in the process right now of losing its biggest cash cow, which is Gaza,” he said.
Before the war brought Gaza's economy to a near standstill, Levitt said the group was easily earning between $300-400 million a year from taxation, extortion, racketeering, customs fees and other domestic means — triple or more what it collects from Iran.
As the war deprives Hamas of a key source of income, the US government is ramping up its efforts to cut off the militant group’s access to the international financial system and other revenue streams. In recent weeks, the Treasury Department has imposed two rounds of sanctions, including on Hamas members managing assets in a secret portfolio of real estate and other investments worth an estimated $500 million or more, with companies operating in Sudan, Algeria, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. Also blacklisted was a Qatar-based member of Hamas that Treasury said helped transfer tens of millions of dollars to the group’s military wing.  The department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network also issued a public alert to help financial institutions identify potential funding streams for Hamas, which is designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union. “We at Treasury have a number of tools at our disposal that we can really focus on getting after some of the main sources of Hamas’ fundraising,” Treasury’s Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson told Al-Monitor in an interview. “Of all the buckets of support that Hamas receives, Iran is likely at the top of that list,” Nelson said. According to US government estimates, Iran provides up to $100 million annually in support to Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups. Last year, Hamas' political leader Ismail Haniyeh told Al Jazeera that Tehran gave his organization $70 million in military aid. Treasury’s latest tranche of sanctions targeted Hamas’ envoy to Tehran as well as members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps involved in training Hamas, Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and a smaller armed faction called Palestinian Islamic Jihad. After last month’s unprecedented attack on Israel, Treasury vowed to “track, freeze and seize any Hamas-related assets” and degrade its ability to raise funds. But in connecting the financial dots, US officials might have to play catch-up. As national security priorities have shifted away from counterterrorism to focus more on rivalries with Russia and China, “the resources that the entirety of the US government would have to really better understand what's going on in the terrorism space may have dwindled,” said Kimberly Donovan, a former senior Treasury official now at the Atlantic Council. To disrupt the flow of Iranian and other funds to Hamas, the United States should be looking at the jurisdictions that are facilitating and enabling the financing, said Donovan.  “It's a good effort to go after the individuals and entities, such as companies, that might be helping Hamas, but at a certain point that can become a whack-a-mole exercise,” Donovan said. Nelson recently met with officials in Qatar, which hosts Hamas’ political office in Doha and provides significant financial aid to Gaza, for discussions on how to prevent the Iran-backed group from further exploiting the Qatari financial system.
He also traveled to Saudi Arabia for a meeting with six Gulf countries focused on disrupting terrorist financing networks, and Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo traveled to London, Brussels and Berlin to coordinate the sanctions response. As Treasury works to block traditional means of financing, it’s also targeting Hamas’ use of digital currency for fundraising, which Nelson described as a “real and abiding concern.” Treasury recently designated “Buy Cash,” a Gaza-based virtual currency exchange, for involvement in Hamas fundraising. “The problem with terrorism financing is that there are a vast array of sources,” including manipulation of the charitable sector, said Nicholas Ryder, a professor of law and specialist in terrorist financing networks at Cardiff University.
Ryder cautioned that groups like Hamas have been known to solicit online donations for fictitious charities, which are then used to fund their military operations.
“Terrorism financing has significantly evolved,” Ryder said. “And the law is attempting to catch up with it.”

Israel resists US pressure to pause the war to allow more aid to Gaza, wants hostages back first
TEL AVIV, Israel (AP)/November 3, 2023
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday pushed back against growing U.S. pressure for a “humanitarian pause” in the nearly month-old war to protect civilians and allow more aid into Gaza, insisting there would be no temporary cease-fire until the roughly 240 hostages held by Hamas are released.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made his third trip to Israel since the war began, reiterating American support for Israel's campaign to crush Hamas after its brutal Oct. 7 attack in southern Israel. He also echoed President Joe Biden’s calls for a brief halt in the fighting to address a worsening humanitarian crisis. Alarm has grown over spiraling Palestinian deaths and deepening misery for civilians from weeks of Israeli bombardment and a widening ground assault that risks even greater casualties. Overwhelmed hospitals say they are nearing collapse, with medicine and fuel running low under the Israeli siege. About 1.5 million people in Gaza, or 70% of the population, have fled their homes, the U.N. said Friday. After talks with Netanyahu, Blinken said a temporary halt was needed to boost aid deliveries and help win the release of the hostages Hamas took during its brutal incursion nearly a month ago. But Netanyahu said he told Blinken that Israel was “going with full steam ahead," unless hostages are released. U.S. officials say they are not seeking a cease-fire but short pauses in specific areas to allow aid deliveries or other humanitarian activity, after which Israeli operations would resume. Netanyahu has not publicly addressed the idea and has instead repeatedly ruled out a cease-fire. Israeli troops tightened their encirclement of Gaza City amid continued battles with Hamas militants as airstrikes wreaked havoc around the city, the largest in the tiny Mediterranean territory. Al Jazeera TV reported that a strike late Friday hit a school in Gaza City where many were taking refuge, causing casualties. Strikes hit by the entrances of three hospitals in northern Gaza just as staff were trying to evacuate wounded to the south, hospital directors said. Footage showed the aftermath outside Gaza's largest hospital, Shifa, where more than a dozen bloodied bodies of men, women and young children were strewn next to damaged cars and ambulances. One bleeding boy screamed as he huddled on top of a woman sprawled on the pavement. At least 15 people were killed and 60 wounded outside Shifa Hospital, said Health Ministry spokesperson Ashraf al-Qidra. At least 50 others were killed or wounded in a strike outside the Indonesian Hospital, its director said, without providing more precise figures. The Israeli military said its aircraft Friday hit an ambulance that Hamas fighters were using to carry weapons. The claim could not be independently verified. It was not clear whether the strike was connected to the one by Shifa Hospital. The military said it took place “near a battle zone,” suggesting it was elsewhere by the ongoing ground battles. Al-Qidra said a convoy of ambulances left Shifa, carrying wounded to Rafah, when a first strike hit one of the vehicles on the edges of Gaza City. The convoy turned around, and another strike hit another ambulance in the group. He denied claims any of the ambulances were used by Hamas fighters.
FEARS OVER NEW FRONTS
Throughout the war, Israel and Hezbollah have traded fire almost daily along the Lebanon border, raising fears of a new front opening there. In his first public speech since the war began, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said the cross-border fighting showed his group had “entered the battle.”
He suggested escalation was possible: “We will not be limited to this.” But he gave little sign that Hezbollah would fully engage in the fighting. So far, Hezbollah has taken calculated steps to show backing for Hamas without igniting an all-out war that would be devastating for Lebanon and Israel. Thursday saw one of the heaviest exchanges over the border yet. Hezbollah attacked Israeli military positions in northern Israel with drones, mortar fire and suicide drones, and Israeli warplanes and helicopter gunships retaliated with strikes in Lebanon. Israeli military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said civilians were wounded in the Hezbollah attacks. “We are in a high state of readiness in the north, in a very high state of alert, to respond to any event today and in coming days,” he said. The exchanges since the start of the war have killed 10 Lebanese civilians and 66 fighters from Hezbollah and other militant groups, as well as seven Israeli soldiers and a civilian in northern Israel.
GAZA CITY ENCIRCLED
More than 9,200 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza so far, two thirds of them women and minors, the Gaza Health Ministry said, without providing a breakdown between civilians and fighters. More than 1,400 people have died on the Israeli side, mainly civilians killed during Hamas’ initial attack. Rocket fire by Gaza militants into Israel has continued, disrupting life for millions of people and forcing an estimated 250,000 people to evacuate towns in northern and southern Israel. Most rockets are intercepted. Twenty-four Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza since the start of the ground operation. The toll is likely to rise dramatically. Israeli military officials said their forces have encircled densely built-up Gaza City and began Friday to launch targeted attacks within the city on militant cells. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians remain in the city and nearby parts of northern Gaza. Israel says Hamas has extensive military infrastructure in the city, including a network of underground tunnels, bunkers and command centers. It says its strikes target Hamas and the militants endanger civilians by operating among them. Friday's strike outside Shifa Hospital came after Israel said Hamas has a command center at the facility — a claim that could not be independently verified and that Hamas and hospital officials deny. The Palestinian Red Crescent said a strike damaged one of its ambulances carrying wounded to southern Gaza on the coastal highway. The agency posted images of the vehicle with its hood destroyed and blood on the side. Since the start of the conflict, Israeli strikes have destroyed 25 ambulances, Qidra said. The military said its troops have killed numerous Hamas militants exiting tunnels. Footage released by the military showed soldiers and tanks advancing toward bombed out buildings. Israel has repeatedly told residents of Gaza's north to evacuate to the south for greater safety. But many have been unable to leave or stay fearing continued airstrikes in the south. The military on Thursday told residents to evacuate the Shati refugee camp on Gaza City’s edge. On Friday, shells hit a convoy of evacuees on the coastal road they were told to use, killing around a dozen people, doctors said. Footage from the road showed dead children lying in the sand. Further south, workers pulled 17 bodies from the rubble of a building leveled by a strike in Khan Younis, witnesses said. Associated Press images showed rescuers digging with bare hands to save someone completely buried, with one arm protruding from the wreckage. At a hospital, a crying man held up the dead body of a small girl whose lower limbs appeared to be missing. In the occupied West Bank overnight, Israeli forces killed seven Palestinians in different places and arrested many more, according to the Israeli military and Palestinian health officials.
BLINKEN’S LATEST TRIP
Blinken first held talks with Netanyahu before holding wider discussions with the prime minister's war Cabinet and meeting with President Isaac Herzog. He stopped later Friday in Amman, Jordan. Biden’s suggestion for a humanitarian “pause” in the fighting aims to let in aid for Palestinians and let out more Palestinians who hold foreign passports and wounded. More than 386 Palestinian dual nationals and wounded exited Gaza into Egypt on Friday, according to Wael Abou Omar, the Hamas spokesman for the Rafah border crossing. That brings the total who have gotten out since Wednesday to 1,115. Israel has allowed more than 300 trucks carrying food and medicine into Gaza, but aid workers say it’s not nearly enough. Israeli authorities have refused to allow fuel in, saying Hamas is hoarding fuel for military use and would steal new supplies.

Pentagon acknowledges flying unarmed drones over Gaza
Max Matza - BBC News/November 3, 2023
The US has confirmed for the first time that it has been flying unarmed surveillance drones over Gaza. Pentagon spokesman Brig Gen Pat Ryder said the drones were operating in "support of hostage recovery efforts". "These UAV flights began after the Oct 7 attack by Hamas on Israel," he said in a brief statement. The acknowledgement comes after reporters spotted unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) on flight-tracking websites. "The US is conducting unarmed UAV flights over Gaza, as well as providing advice and assistance to support our Israeli partner as they work on their hostage recovery efforts," the Pentagon's statement on Friday said. The confirmation comes after reporters spotted MQ-9 Reapers, usually operated by American special forces, circling Gaza on Flightradar24, a publicly available flight-tracking website. Reaper drones have previously been used to conduct airstrikes in Afghanistan, but are primarily used as surveillance aircraft because of their ability to "loiter" above an area for more than 20 hours at a time. Unnamed US military officials told the New York Times that the drones were not helping co-ordinate Israeli military action in and around Gaza. Officials told the newspaper that information related to hostage recovery was being passed on to the Israelis. These are not the only remote-controlled American military vehicles operating in the region. On Thursday, the US Navy announced that it had fired lethal munitions from an unmanned surface vehicle (USV) - a speed boat - in the international waters of the Arabian Sea. In a statement, the Navy noted that the test on 23 October was the first time combat munitions had been fired from a USV in the Middle East. The US Navy said the development brings American military capabilities in the region to the "next level". Last month, the US Navy said it had shot down multiple drones and rockets fired from Yemen and presumably aimed at Israel. Hezbollah chief breaks silence on Israel-Gaza war. The US has also sent two battleships to the eastern Mediterranean, saying that they are there to prevent the war between Hamas and Israel from spreading.
In a fiery speech on Friday, the leader of Lebanon's Hezbollah warned the US against using the ships to attack the militant group. "Your fleets in the Mediterranean do not scare us and will never scare us," said Hassan Nasrallah.

Former NATO chief backs pause in Gaza war, but not cease-fire
The Hill/November 3, 2023
The former leader of NATO said a “humanitarian pause” in Gaza “makes sense,” citing the need to help civilians in the region as the war between Israel and Hamas militants continues. But, he refused to back a full cease-fire in the conflict. “I don’t think a sweeping, in place, cease-fire is appropriate from the military perspective, if you’re looking at this from the Israeli side of events,” retired U.S. Adm. James Stavridis said Friday in an interview with MSNBC. The Biden administration has pushed for a pause in fighting in recent days in order to assist civilians in the area. The Israeli counteroffensive in Gaza has killed over 9,200 people, including over 3,800 children, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry. “A cease-fire is everyone stops, really freeze the frame. That’s not what Israel is going to do nor would I recommend it as a military officer,” Stavridis continued. “What they should do, in my view, is humanitarian pauses.” “I think humanitarian pauses make sense. A general, sweeping cease-fire, to my eyes, does not,” he added. President Biden first made his position clear in favor of a pause on Wednesday. “I think we need a pause,” he said. “A pause means give time to get the prisoners out.”Nonprofit leaders and aid organizations have described a dire situation for civilians in Gaza, including dwindling food and water reserves and a lack of power and medical supplies. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Israel on Saturday to deliver the same message, though the administration has also not backed a total cease-fire in the conflict. It comes after over a dozen Democratic Senators urged Biden to back a pause in hostilities this week. “The failure to adequately protect non-combatant civilians risks dramatic escalation of the conflict in the region and imposes severe damage on prospects for peaceful coexistence between Israelis and Palestinians,” the letter reads, led by Sens. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Tim Kaine (D-Va.). “Based on the consensus opinion of U.S. and international aid officials, it is nearly impossible to deliver sufficient humanitarian aid to protect civilian life under current conditions,” the senators added. “Thus, we join President Biden in his call for a short-term cessation of hostilities that pose high-risk to civilians, aid workers or humanitarian aid delivery in Gaza[.]”The conflict was sparked on Oct. 7 after Hamas invaded Israel in a surprise attack, killing more than 1,400 Israelis and taking over 200 people hostage.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that there would be no pause in strikes until Hamas releases all of the hostages.

Israel strikes ambulance in Gaza City, many reported killed
GAZA (Reuters)/November 3, 2023
Israel struck an ambulance in Gaza City on Friday that it said was carrying militants, but which health authorities in the Hamas-controlled enclave said was evacuating wounded people from the besieged north to the south of the territory. Ashraf al-Qidra, spokesperson for the health ministry in Gaza, said the ambulance was part of a convoy that Israel targeted leaving al-Shifa Hospital, adding that "a big number" were killed and wounded but without giving figures. Qidra said Israel had targeted the convoy of ambulances in more than one location, including at al-Shifa Hospital gate and at Ansar Square a kilometer (0.6 miles) away. Israel's military said it had identified and hit an ambulance "being used by a Hamas terrorist cell" in the battle zone. It said a number of Hamas fighters had been killed in the strike and accused the group of transferring both militants and weapons in ambulances. It gave no evidence to support its assertion that the ambulance was linked to Hamas but said in a statement it intended to release additional information. World Health Organisation Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a social media post he was "utterly shocked by reports of attacks on ambulances evacuating patients", adding that patients, health workers and medical facilities must be protected. Earlier on Friday, Qidra said ambulances would send critically injured Palestinians who urgently need to be taken to Egypt to be treated from besieged Gaza City to the south of the enclave. Israel, which has accused Hamas of concealing command centres and tunnel entrances in al-Shifa hospital, ordered all civilians to leave the north of Gaza last month and its military encircled the area on Thursday. Despite its order for civilians to leave northern areas of Gaza, Israel's military has continued to bombard the south of the strip as well. Hamas and al-Shifa hospital authorities have denied the facility is used as a base by militant fighters. Video shared on social media, which Reuters has verified, showed people lying in blood next to an ambulance with flashing lights on a city street as people rushed to help. Another video showed three ambulances standing in a line, with about a dozen people lying either motionless or barely moving next to them. Blood was pooled nearby.

Houthi rebels attacked Israel, not the state of Yemen | Fact check
Joedy McCreary, USA TODAY/November 3, 2023
An Oct. 31 Instagram post (direct link, archive link) shows a man in a military uniform speaking at a podium and a photo of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with his hand on his forehead. “Yemen declared that they are now at war with Israel,” reads text included in the post. It was liked more than 3,000 times in three days. A similar post on the X platform, formerly Twitter, was shared more than 20,000 times in three days. There is no evidence the internationally recognized government of Yemen has declared war on Israel. Houthi rebels fighting for control of Yemen launched attacks on Israel.
Attack conducted by Houthi rebels, not Yemen’s government. A group of rebels in Yemen known as the Houthis claimed to have launched a series of attacks on Israel on Oct. 31, utilizing a “large batch” of missiles and drones in response to Israel's war with Hamas. The strikes prompted Israel to send missile boats to the Red Sea. But that military action was not conducted by the Republic of Yemen, the country's internationally recognized government, two experts told USA TODAY.
“From a technical perspective, (the Houthis) do not speak for Yemen as a country on the international scene,” Thomas Juneau, a professor at the University of Ottawa and an expert on Yemen, told USA TODAY. “So to say that Yemen has declared war is, in that sense, inaccurate.” Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution Center for Middle East Policy, agreed. “The internationally recognized government has not declared war on Israel,” Riedel told USA TODAY in an email. The Houthis control the capital city of Sanaa and much of the country’s northern swath, Juneau said. But the U.S. and most of the world recognize the Republic of Yemen – which operates in the Yemeni port city of Aden and in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia – as the nation’s legitimate government, he added. “It is weak. It is fragmented. But it exists, and it is the one, for example, that has the seat” at the United Nations, Juneau said. The 2015 takeover of Sanaa by the Houthis sparked a proxy war between the Iran-backed rebels and the established government supported by Saudi Arabia, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. It has led to one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, with a 2021 report from the U.N. Development Program estimating more than 300,000 deaths as a result of the war. Juneau said Yemen’s recognized government is “keeping a very low profile” after the attack. Popular opinion across the nation largely supports the rebels' action, Asher Orkaby, a lecturer at Harvard who has written a book on the Yemen civil war, told USA TODAY in an email. “The Houthi attack on Israel was a conscious decision made by Houthi leadership to appeal to the Yemeni masses demanding violence against Israel,” Orkaby said. USA TODAY reached out to Yemen's embassy in Washington and to the social media user who shared the post but did not immediately receive responses.

Honduras recalls ambassador to Israel as it condemns civilian Palestinian toll in war
TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras (AP)November 3, 2023
Honduras on Friday became the latest Latin American country to recall its ambassador to Israel for consultations as it condemned what it called genocide and other serious violations of international law in the Gaza Strip. The Central American country's Foreign Affairs Minister Eduardo Enrique Reina said on X, formerly Twitter, that President Xiomara Castro had decided to immediately recall the ambassador in light of “the serious humanitarian situation the civilian Palestinian population is suffering in the Gaza Strip.”Honduras is the latest leftist-led Latin American government to take diplomatic steps to express its disapproval of Israel’s expanded offensive. Bolivia’s government severed diplomatic relations with Israel on Tuesday, accusing it of carrying out “crimes against humanity” in Gaza. Chile and Colombia also recalled their own ambassadors to Israel as they criticized the Israeli offensive against Hamas militants. The Palestinian death toll in the Israel-Hamas war has reached 9,227, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry in Gaza. More than 1,400 people in Israel have been killed, most of them in the Oct. 7 Hamas attack that started the fighting, and 242 hostages were taken from Israel into Gaza by the militant group.
Reina told The Associated Press that recalling the ambassador was a way to draw attention to the civilian situation in Gaza and said the government decided to pull him out until the situation was clearer. Relations with Israel remain stable and Honduran diplomats and staff will remain in the embassy, he added. He noted the main points of a recent United Nations resolution calling for an immediate cease-fire, respect for humanitarian law and to start a dialogue in search of peace. “It is a position to say, in a way, that the situation of the innocent population concerns us,” Reina said. In 2021, Honduras moved its embassy to the contested city of Jerusalem under then-President Juan Orlando Hernández, who is now awaiting trial on drug trafficking charges in the United States. At the time, Honduras’ decision to move its embassy to Jerusalem was seen as an attempt by Hernández to curry favor with the Trump administration, which had moved the U.S. embassy there in 2018. Castro, a leftist, succeeded Hernández. Honduras' first female president has tried to walk a line that aligns with other leftist governments in the hemisphere like Venezuela and Cuba, but without completely alienating the United States.

Exhausted and disappointed with allies, Ukraine’s president and military chief warn of long attritional war
CNN/Analysis by Tim Lister/November 3, 2023
Two articles published this week give a stark assessment of Ukraine’s prospects in its war with Russia. One – by the commander in chief of the Ukrainian military – admits the battlefield has reached a stalemate and a long attritional war benefiting Moscow beckons. The other portrays Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as exhausted by the constant effort to cajole and persuade allies to keep the faith. Ukraine’s military chief, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, says in a long essay and interview with the Economist that “just like in the First World War we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate.” He acknowledges: “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough,” but instead an equilibrium of devastating losses and destruction. At the same time, in an interview with TIME’s Simon Shuster, Zelensky says that “Nobody believes in our victory like I do. Nobody.” But he adds that instilling those beliefs in Ukraine’s allies “takes all your power, your energy.” Shuster, who has long had access to the president’s inner circle, portrays Zelensky as tired and sometimes irritable, and anxious that allied commitment is waning. “Exhaustion with the war rolls along like a wave. You see it in the United States, in Europe,” Zelensky is quoted as saying. But Zelensky is fixated with victory and won’t countenance a truce or negotiations. “For us it would mean leaving this wound open for future generations,” he tells TIME. Five months after Ukraine launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive, Zelensky’s fears and Zaluzhny’s assessment come as the world’s focus shifts to the Middle East and the risk that Israel’s war with Hamas might spill over into a broader regional conflict. Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny during an event dedicated to Ukraine's Independence Day on August 24, 2023 in Kyiv, Ukraine. On August 24, Ukraine celebrates its 1991 declaration of independence from the USSR. - Yan Dobronosov
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny during an event dedicated to Ukraine's Independence Day on August 24, 2023 in Kyiv, Ukraine. On August 24, Ukraine celebrates its 1991 declaration of independence from the USSR. - Yan Dobronosov/
Zelensky himself acknowledges to TIME: “Of course we lose out from the events in the Middle East. People are dying, and the world’s help is needed there to save lives…”
Stalemate on the front
Ukrainian forces have taken just a sliver of land since the summer; Russia still occupies nearly one-fifth of the country. In some areas, such as around Avdviika and Vuhledar in Donetsk, and near Kupyansk in Kharkiv, the Ukrainians are on the defensive, as Russia pours munitions and men into the battle. Zaluzhny tells the Economist that the Kremlin is oblivious to the huge losses sustained by the Russian army – well over 100,000 men according to many estimates. In the last few days, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov says Russia has lost 4,000 men around Avdviika alone. Open-source imagery suggests the Russians may have lost up to 200 tanks and other vehicles in that battle. Zaluzhny seems almost puzzled that the arsenal supplied to Ukraine by its Western allies, and the mobilization of several more brigades, has made so little difference. Changing commanders and moving divisions have had no impact, he says.
“Four months should have been enough time for us to have reached Crimea, to have fought in Crimea, to return from Crimea and to have gone back in and out again,” he adds. Instead, deep and well-entrenched Russian defenses have been impossible to penetrate. Even where dense minefields are penetrated, often at great cost, the Russians restore them through remote mine-laying. Ukraine’s inferiority in the air has stymied advances on the ground, and Zaluzhny warns that at the end of 2023, Russia may deploy new attack squadrons. The commander in chief says that at one point he turned to an old Soviet analysis of the First World War, entitled “Breaching Fortified Defense Lines.” The similarities with today were striking, he notes. “I realized that is exactly where we are because just like then, the level of our technological development today has put both us and our enemies in a stupor.” The use of drones and other reconnaissance technology is at the heart of the stalemate. Zaluzhny talks about the carnage unfolding around Avdviika as Russia throws dozens of tanks into taking a few hundred meters. “The simple fact is that we see everything the enemy is doing, and they see everything we are doing.”
At the same time he acknowledges that the Russian military has learnt and adapted. It has improved logistics chains, factories are churning out new hardware and its electronic warfare capabilities have blunted Ukraine’s edge in precision munitions. Zaluzhny candidly admits that Russia “will maintain an advantage in armaments, equipment, rockets, and ammunition for some time.”
Kyiv’s wish list
Ukraine’s military chief says it will take a qualitative leap to break the remorseless war of attrition that has set in – just as winter begins to bite. That brutal recognition can only wear down Ukrainian morale, and not just on the battlefield. Ukrainian civilians will face another cold, dark winter if Russia renews its targeting of energy infrastructure. In his essay Zaluzhny lists five major requirements for progress – none of them quick fixes and all of them demanding renewed commitment from allies. They include gaining air superiority to support ground operations; breaching Russian mine barriers; increasing the effectiveness of counterbattery combat (targeting Russian artillery, for example); creating and training the necessary reserves; and building up electronic warfare capabilities. He says that Ukraine must deliver massive strikes “in a single combat formation,” using decoys and combat drones to overload the Russian air defense systems. “We also need electronic warfare systems, which are key to winning the drone warfare,” he notes, adding that the Russians have about 60 different systems. “This war cannot be won with the weapons of the past generation and outdated methods,” Zaluzhny told the Economist. “Sooner or later we are going to find that we simply don’t have enough people to fight.”“We have limited capabilities to train reserves on our own territory, since the enemy has the ability to launch missile and air strikes on training centers and training grounds.” The Kremlin, by contrast, seems grimly satisfied by the stalemate in the belief that ultimately its larger military machine will break Ukrainian morale. Responding to Zaluzhny’s comments, spokesman Dmitri Peskov said Thursday that “Russia consistently continues to conduct the special military operation. All goals that are set must be achieved.” Moscow is also likely relishing shifting sentiment in the US, in both Congress and among the public. According to a new Gallup poll, 41 percent of Americans say the US is doing too much to help Ukraine, up from 29% just five months ago. That figure rises to 55% among Republicans, according to the poll, as the 2024 election looms. The paralysis on Capitol Hill has also interrupted the flow of military aid to Ukraine. The Biden administration’s efforts to link a year’s worth of aid ($24 billion) to other funding priorities, such as aid to Israel, have run into strong headwinds among Republicans in Congress. Several Republican senators have now said that Zaluzhny’s remarks call into question Ukraine’s strategy in the war. One who has opposed further aid to Ukraine, Sen. J.D. Vance, said Thursday: “This was always going to end with Russia controlling some Ukrainian territory and a negotiated settlement.”
Speaking of his latest visit to Washington in September, Zelensky tells TIME that some members of Congress “asked me straight up: ‘If we don’t give you the aid, what happens?’ What happens is we will lose.”Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials have consistently warned that the volume and type of aid coming from Western allies – as well as what they see as damaging delays in its arrival – has enabled Ukraine to stay in the fight but not to prevail. Shuster quotes an aide to the Ukrainian president as saying Zelensky feels “betrayed by his Western allies. They have left him without the means to win the war, only the means to survive it.”Only now are US-made ATACMs (a longer-range tactical missile) being brought to bear against targets far behind the front lines. F-16 fighter jets will not be deployed until next spring at the earliest. To many Ukrainian officials, this restricted pipeline has allowed Russia to stabilize a situation which a year ago threatened to unravel, in the aftermath of the sudden Ukrainian advance through Kharkiv and the Russian withdrawal from much of Kherson.
If the Russians have an Achilles heel, Zaluzhny believes, it is Crimea. That is partly because it is the jewel in President Vladimir Putin’s crown, and partly because the peninsula is an important channel for resupplying Russian troops as well as the home of its Black Sea fleet. Over the past few months, the Ukrainian military has stepped up missile, drone and sabotage attacks against Russia’s defense infrastructure in Crimea, as well as Putin’s prized bridge to Russia. Zaluzhny says that for the first time an ATACM was used against a target in Crimea this week. But its land forces remain many miles from the peninsula. For now, Zaluzhny’s greatest fear is prolonged trench warfare against an enemy with three times the number of men under arms. “The biggest risk of an attritional trench war is that it can drag on for years and wear down the Ukrainian state,” he says. Zaluzhny describes Russia as “a feudal state where the cheapest resource is human life. And for us… the most expensive thing we have is our people.”

US sanctions UAE, Turkey, China firms for allegedly aiding Russia in Ukraine
Jack Dutton/Al Monitor/November 3, 2023
The United States on Thursday tightened its grip on Russia’s international supply chains by sanctioning more than 200 individuals and companies, including entities in the United Arab Emirates and Turkey, that it claims are helping Moscow in its war effort against Ukraine. The latest effort is aimed at restricting the development of Russia’s defense and technology sectors as well as preventing foreign companies from moving goods into Russia that aid in the full-scale attack on Ukraine launched in February 2022. Chinese, Emirati, Russian, Swiss and Turkish companies were on the latest sanctions list, which includes several logistics and financial services companies. The State Department announced in a statement that it had designated several defense-related entities and procurement companies in the UAE and Russia that helped the Kremlin acquire components that officials call “high priority dual-use goods” to help with its war. The Emirati companies hit by sanctions include Dream Lite Trading LLC, a business that allegedly supplied two Russia-based companies — the newly sanctioned Lanmax and the previously sanctioned AO Taskom — with multiple shipments of BIS-identified "high-priority" electronic components, whose status is determined by the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) in the Department of Commerce. The sanctioned UAE-based Bliksem Computers & Requisites Trading Company LCC was also accused of making multiple shipments of BIS-identified "high-priority" electronic components to companies based in Russia.
The Turkish companies sanctioned by the US Treasury encompassed electronic suppliers, manufacturers and logistics companies. Also among the sanctioned is an unnamed major entity involved in the development, operation and ownership of Russia’s key Arctic LNG 2, its liquified natural gas (LNG) project in the Arctic region. Russia's metals and mining sector was also targeted by the measures. The US Treasury designated several Chinese companies that it said had conducted “hundreds of shipments” of technology to Russian companies, including China Taly Aviation Technologies Corp., which the Treasury claimed shipped radar components to a Russian state-owned missile manufacturer for use in advanced antiaircraft missile systems. Western officials have pressured the UAE, an ally of the United States and much of the West, to stop helping Russia evade sanctions they've imposed as a result of the Ukraine war, now approaching its second year. The Emirates has become a popular place for Russians to base their businesses in their efforts to evade the sanctions.  “Recent actions taken — particularly by the UAE — are encouraging, and the U.S. looks forward to working with partners to verify that Russia is no longer able to exploit their jurisdictions,” said the Treasury Department in a release. The secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen, said in a statement that Russia was “dependent" on foreign individuals and businesses to restock its military. “Our global sanctions coalition has choked off Russia’s access to key inputs for its military industrial complex and has undermined the Kremlin’s ability to wage its unprovoked war,” she said. “Today’s actions demonstrate our further resolve in continuing to disrupt every link of Russian [the] military supply chain, and target outside actors who would seek to support Russia’s war effort.”

Latest English LCCC  analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 03-04/2023
Another New War?....Azerbaijan's Heroes: Soldiers Who Behead Armenians
Uzay Bulut/Gatestone Institute./November 03, 2023
After Azerbaijan besieged and starved 120,000 Christian Armenians in the Republic of Artsakh in the South Caucuses for nine months, on September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan bombed Artsakh's communities.
Hundreds of civilians, including children, were murdered. Almost all the Armenians of Artsakh have fled: they know that after all military raids, Armenians who have fallen into the hands of the Azerbaijani military have been treated with maximum cruelty.
Beheading and mutilating Armenians appears to be a long-standing tradition of Azeri soldiers. These actions are promoted and rewarded by the State of Azerbaijan. Azeri soldiers who commit such ISIS-like war crimes not only escape accountability and are never prosecuted, rather they are treated as national heroes by their government.
During Azerbaijan's military incursion into Armenia in September 2022, Azeri soldiers raped, mutilated and slaughtered a 36-year-old Armenian woman who served in the Armenian forces. They then posted a video demonstrating their war crime on social media. In it, the dead woman appears naked, with both of her arms and legs dismembered. One of her eyes is gouged out. A severed finger appears to be sticking out of her mouth, and another appears out of her private parts.... The Azeri soldiers videotaping can be heard laughing and joking in the background.
So, will the US finally hold the government of Azerbaijan to account? Will it cut US military aid to Azerbaijan? Will it once again watch as Turkey and Azerbaijan massacre more Armenians and invade more Armenian lands?
During Azerbaijan's September 19, 2023 bombing of Artsakh's communities, hundreds of civilians, including children, were murdered. Almost all the Armenians of Artsakh have since fled: they know that after all military raids, Armenians who have fallen into the hands of the Azerbaijani military have been treated with maximum cruelty.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on October 13 that in the coming weeks, Azerbaijan could invade Armenia. Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev has threatened Armenia with war multiple times.
Meanwhile, pro-Erdogan media outlets in Turkey are also playing their war drums against Armenians. The headline news in the pro-Erdogan newspaper Türkiye on October 3 refers to Armenians in Armenia's Syunik (Zangezur) province as "snakes", "gangs" and "terrorists". One headline reads: "The new nest of the snake is Zangezur". It claims that the Armenians displaced from Artsakh (also known as Nagorno-Karabakh) are receiving military training in "terror camps in Zangezur".
When the Turkish media uses such words, its intent is to prepare the public for an upcoming war against an "enemy".
On November 1, the Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention issued a Red Flag Alert "due to the alarming potential for an invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan in the coming days and weeks".
The US government also knows that the next step for Azerbaijan and Turkey is to attack the Republic of Armenia.
After Azerbaijan besieged and starved 120,000 Christian Armenians in the Republic of Artsakh in the South Caucuses for nine months, on September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan bombed Artsakh's communities.
Hundreds of civilians, including children, were murdered. Almost all the Armenians of Artsakh have fled: they know that after all military raids, Armenians who have fallen into the hands of the Azerbaijani military have been treated with maximum cruelty.
Azeri soldiers, since their invasion began, have been uploading videos on social media showing themselves beheading and mutilating Armenians.
The Lemkin Institute of Genocide Prevention on September 23 noted:
"There are stories coming out of Artsakh of the beheading of children and the separation of older boys and men from women and children..... Azerbaijan has routinely treated Armenians with this level of barbarism, especially in the wars of 2016, 2020 and 2022. It is a country is run by people who do not hide their visceral hatred of Armenians."
Beheading and mutilating Armenians appears to be a long-standing tradition of Azeri soldiers. These actions are promoted and rewarded by the State of Azerbaijan. Azeri soldiers who commit such ISIS-like war crimes not only escape accountability and are never prosecuted, rather they are treated as national heroes by their government.
On February 19, 2004, for instance, during a three-month English language class that was part of the Partnership for Peace NATO-sponsored program in Budapest, Ramil Safarov, an Azerbaijani army officer, broke into the dormitory room of Armenian army Lieutenant Gurgen Margaryan at night and axed him to death while he slept. Safarov hit Margaryan 16 times on his head and neck with the axe, almost decapitating him.
A court in Budapest convicted Safarov in 2006 of murdering Markaryan and attempting to murder another Armenian participant of the course, Hayk Makuchian, in the same fashion. Safarov was sentenced to life imprisonment in 2006. However, when Safarov was extradited to Azerbaijan in 2012, he received a hero's welcome in the capital of Baku.
According to anthropologist Sarah Kendzior:
"On August 31, 2012, Ramil Safarov was extradited to Azerbaijan, where he was greeted as a hero. As an adoring crowd cheered, Safarov walked the streets of the capital draped in an Azerbaijani flag, carrying a bouquet of roses. He was pardoned by President Ilham Aliyev, promoted to the rank of major and given a new apartment and money by the Azerbaijani Defence Ministry."
In 2020, the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) ruled that Azerbaijan's actions amounted to the "approval" and "endorsement" of the "very serious ethnically-biased crime" that Safarov committed. The court concluded that "the acts of Azerbaijan in effect granted [Safarov] impunity for the crimes committed against his Armenian victims."
"In addition, the Court finds particularly disturbing the statements made by a number of Azerbaijani officials glorifying [Safarov,] his deeds and his pardon. It also deplores the fact that a large majority of those statements expressed particular support for the fact that [Safarov's] crimes had been directed against Armenian soldiers, congratulated him on his actions and called him a patriot, a role model and a hero."
During an Azeri raid against Artsakh on April 1-5, 2016, a Yazidi member of the Artsakh Defense Army, Kyaram Sloyan, was beheaded and mutilated by Azeri soldiers. Videos and pictures showing Azeri soldiers posing with Sloyan's severed head were posted on social media networks. The Sunday Times called them "shocking souvenir photos of uniformed Azerbaijani soldiers posing with the severed head".
Sloyan was reburied in his father's village in Armenia after the International Committee of the Red Cross retrieved his severed head and returned it to his family.
"When they brought the body, we didn't know that it's headless," Sloyan's grief-stricken father Kyalash told RFE/RL's Armenian service on April 11, 2016. "It was very painful to discover that. They brought the head yesterday."
The Azerbaijani officer who decapitated Sloyan reportedly became a national hero in Azerbaijan. President Aliyev awarded him a medal in May 2016.
The Office of the Human Rights Defender of the Artsakh Republic published an interim public report on the atrocities committed by the Azerbaijani Military Forces during the four- day war in April 2016.
The report noted that both civilians and servicemen were executed and mutilated by the Azeri Army. Some Artsakh soldiers were, "along with other forms of dismemberment, also subjected to beheading," Graphic images of the abuses were also published in the report.
During Azerbaijan's 2020 war against Artsakh, Azeri accounts once again posted videos on Telegram which showed Azeris beheading Armenian civilians, soldiers and prisoners of war. One was Yuri Asryan, a reclusive 82-year-old who had refused to leave his village on October 20, 2020 when the invading Azerbaijani forces approached.
During Azerbaijan's military incursion into Armenia in September 2022, Azeri soldiers raped, mutilated and slaughtered a 36-year-old Armenian woman who served in the Armenian forces. They then posted a video demonstrating their war crime on social media. In it, the dead woman appears naked, with both of her arms and legs dismembered. One of her eyes is gouged out. A severed finger appears to be sticking out of her mouth, and another appears out of her private parts.
The video also includes several other mutilated and beheaded Armenian men. The Azeri soldiers videotaping can be heard laughing and joking in the background.
The words of Kamil Zeynallı, an Azeri athlete with 1.7 million Instagram followers, demonstrate the Azeri path to national "heroism". Zeynalli said in a WhatsApp call later posted on social media:
"Shed the blood of the Armenians. You'll return to our country like a man. You'll be free like a man. Our president [Aliyev] is behind those who behead Armenians.
"Whoever cuts off the heads of Armenians, our esteemed president is by their side."
Azerbaijan tries to spread propaganda in the West about allegedly being a "tolerant" and "multicultural" society. This propaganda is refuted by Azerbaijan's rewarding soldiers who behead Armenians, among many other war crimes they commit against Armenians.
There is no government other than Azerbaijan that so proudly rewards soldiers who behead and mutilate their captives, except perhaps for the Palestinian Authority and the Islamic State (ISIS).
The jihadists' use of beheadings is based on Islamic scriptures and Islamic history:
"So when you meet those who disbelieve [in battle], strike [their] necks until, when you have inflicted slaughter upon them, then secure their bonds..., and either [confer] favor afterwards or ransom [them] until the war lays down its burdens. That [is the command]. And if Allah had willed, He could have taken vengeance upon them [Himself], but [He ordered armed struggle] to test some of you by means of others. And those who are killed in the cause of Allah – never will He waste their deeds." – Quran 47:4, Sahih International translation
"I will cast terror into the hearts of those who disbelieved, so strike [them] upon the necks and strike from them every fingertip." – Quran 8:12 : Sahih International translation
Beheadings have been commonly used by Muslims in their jihad (war in the service of Allah) against non-Muslims since the advent of Islam in the seventh century. (For more examples of Islam's use of beheadings and other forms of violence, see here.)
Azerbaijan's war against Armenians is jihadist as well as nationalist. During Azerbaijan's war against Armenians in 2020, Erdogan declared:
"We support Azerbaijan until victory... I tell my Azerbaijani brothers: May your ghazwa be blessed."
"Ghazwa" in Islam means a battle or raid against non-Muslims for the expansion of Muslim territory and/or conversion of non-Muslims to Islam. Erdogan thus openly announced that attacks against the Armenian territory constitute jihad. To fight against Armenians in Artsakh, Turkey was joined in Azerbaijan by mercenary jihadi terrorists from Syria, as well.
During the first Artsakh war (1991-94), which the Armenians won, Dr. Araks Pashayan, an expert on political Islam and Azerbaijan, noted that "mercenaries from Afghanistan, Iran, the United States, Russia and Turkey were included in Azerbaijani army, and particularly Turkey and Iran provided Baku with military instructors."
Mohammad Younas was among the thousands of Afghan fighters that Hezb-e Islami, a major Afghan Islamist party, sent to Azerbaijan in the 1990s to bolster Baku in its war against Armenians.
"If possible, I would again join the Muslims of Azerbaijan to defend them against non-Muslims," Younas told RFE/RL's Radio Free Afghanistan. "My real motivation in going to Azerbaijan was participating in a jihad, but I also wanted to make some money," he said.
In the face of this barbarity, the world idly watches. Such complacency has allowed Azerbaijan to forcibly displace around 120,000 indigenous Armenians from their homeland of Artsakh. Armenians know what will happen if they try to live under the Azeri regime.
So, will the US finally hold the government of Azerbaijan to account? Will it cut US military aid to Azerbaijan? Will it once again watch as Turkey and Azerbaijan massacre more Armenians and invade more Armenian lands?
It is high time that the West sanctioned the Azerbaijani government and held it accountable for treating Armenians in the most brutal ways. As long as Western governments continue their military and commercial cooperation with Azerbaijan and turn a blind eye to its mass atrocity crimes, they will remain complicit in Azerbaijan's crimes.
*Uzay Bulut, a Turkish journalist, a research fellow for the Philos Project, and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/20123/new-war-armenia-azerbaijan

How arming Saudi Arabia helped Israel and the United States
Bradley Bowman and Ryan Brobst/Defence News/November 03/2023
https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/2023/11/02/how-arming-saudi-arabia-helped-israel-and-the-united-states/
In the deluge of news related to the war between Israel and Hamas, many may have missed a development last month hidden behind the headlines that offers notable lessons for U.S. policy in the Middle East and much-needed hope for regional security.
On or around Oct. 19, Saudi Arabia reportedly shot down a cruise missile launched by an Iranian terror proxy toward Israel. That event likely caused concern in Iran and offers policymakers in Washington some insights regarding the value of U.S. arms sales in the Middle East and the potential of a combined regional security architecture there that includes the United States, its Arab partners and Israel. The Houthis, Iran’s terror proxy in Yemen, launched a salvo toward Israel. The U.S. Navy’s guided-missile destroyer Carney, while sailing in the Red Sea, intercepted four cruise missiles and 19 drones. That successful interception was widely reported.
The military engagement, however, did not stop there. In addition to the actions of Carney, Saudi Arabia intercepted a fifth cruise missile, according to The Wall Street Journal. As the report suggests, Riyadh was likely focused on defending its airspace, through or near which the missile likely traveled as it flew toward Israel. Even more interesting, Riyadh possibly used an American-made interceptor to down the missile. The U.S. has sold Saudi Arabia in recent years a variety of weapons capable of intercepting a cruise missile, including RIM-116A missiles, AIM-9X Sidewinder missiles, AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles, and MIM-104 Patriot air and missile defense systems, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
So why does that matter?
Well, many members of Congress now admirably voicing support for Israel previously tried to block the sale of weapons to Saudi Arabia that can be used to intercept missiles and drones launched by the Houthis. Had those efforts succeeded, Saudi Arabia may not have detected or intercepted the cruise missile, permitting it to continue toward Israel.
The larger lesson for members of Congress is to think twice about efforts to block the provision of defensive weapons to Saudi Arabia, which can lessen the burden on U.S. forces, protect common interests and save lives. Indeed, the Houthis are a leading threat to Saudi Arabia as well as a growing threat to the United States and Israel. The more Saudi Arabia can intercept missiles and drones headed north from Yemen, the less effort Israel will have to spend on defeating those attacks. Riyadh’s focus will be on protecting Saudi airspace, of course, but the primary Saudi motive for downing Houthi missiles would matter little to Israelis. A more proactive Saudi effort to down all missiles headed north would prove useful, particularly if Israel finds itself in a major war with Hezbollah in addition to the current war with Hamas, two groups that are no friends of the Saudi government.
Accordingly, Saudi Arabia would be wise to be more aggressive in intercepting more Houthi missiles headed north. Saudi Arabia may not know whether a Houthis cruise missile is headed toward the Saudi port city of Jeddah or Eilat in Israel.
Regardless, for Riyadh, shooting down Houthi missiles would have the benefit of defending Saudi airspace, countering an Iranian proxy, garnering goodwill from the Biden administration, and increasing support in Congress for the provision of defensive weapons to Saudi Arabia.
Moreover, it is important not to miss the larger picture. In defending its airspace from intrusions by an Iranian terror proxy, Saudi Arabia wittingly or unwittingly helped Israel, demonstrating common interests between the two countries. Such a scenario is a nightmare for Iran, which has pursued a grand strategy for decades of keeping Arabs and Israelis distracted, divided and distrustful of one another, rather than cooperating to counter the real threat to regional security: the Islamic Republic of Iran.
That is why Iran felt so threatened by the 2020 Abraham Accords, in which the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain normalized relations with Israel. That is also why normalized relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia would be such a disaster for Iran, particularly considering Riyadh’s outsized influence.
Tehran likely hopes that Hamas’ barbaric Oct. 7 aggression against Israel has blocked or at least slowed the growing momentum toward a historic formal normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Accordingly, decision-makers in Washington, Riyadh and Jerusalem would be wise to not let the events of last month derail Saudi-Israeli peace. In addition to the economic benefits for Saudi Arabia and Israel, normalized relations would facilitate a U.S.- and Saudi-led regional security architecture that includes Israel. That would enable the U.S., key Arab states and Israel to cooperate in deterring, detecting and defeating threats from Tehran and its terror proxies. Building on ongoing Biden administration initiatives with the Gulf Cooperation Council, this regional security architecture should include air and missile defense, maritime security and counterterrorism components. Such an arrangement would make it more difficult for Iran to conduct and hide its aggression — something the United States, its Arab partners and Israel could celebrate.
*Bradley Bowman is the senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, where Ryan Brobst is a senior research analyst. FDD does not receive money from any foreign government, including Saudi Arabia.

Hamas officials admit its strategy is to use Palestinian civilians as human shields
Natalie Ecanow/New York Post/November 03/2023
An interviewer recently posed a logical question to Mousa Abu Marzouk, a senior member of the Hamas politburo: “Since you have built 500 kilometers of tunnels, why haven’t you built bomb shelters where civilians can hide during bombardments?”
Abu Marzouk said the tunnels are “meant to protect us” from Israeli aircraft and facilitate attacks on Israeli targets.
“Us” meaning Hamas. Not civilians.Hamas chooses not to build bomb shelters in Gaza because that would undercut its ability to use the population as human shields. By putting civilians in or above its military positions, Hamas knows it cannot lose. Either it will prevent Israel from attacking, since the Israeli military tries to minimize harm to civilians, or if Israel does attack, the use of human shields will ensure high civilian casualties. Hamas can then hold the death toll against Israel while generating sympathy for itself. Hamas uses its hundreds of miles of tunnels for military purposes: to transport weapons and ammunition, store supplies and train its members without exposing them to enemy surveillance and fire.
Equally important, the tunnels are a convenient way for Hamas to hide its military assets underneath civilian infrastructure. That is a textbook use of human shields, which international law prohibits. Reliant on civilians to protect it from Israeli counterattacks, Hamas cannot afford to let Gaza’s civilian population seek refuge from clashes with the Israel Defense Forces. Accordingly, Hamas leadership ordered civilians in northern Gaza to defy the IDF’s advice to “evacuate south for your own safety” in advance of Israel’s ground invasion. Eyad al-Bozom, a spokesman for Hamas’ interior ministry, encouraged Gaza’s residents to “stay put in your homes and your places.”To its credit, the Biden administration has called out Hamas for employing a strategy whose essence is the commission of war crimes against the same people Hamas supposedly represents. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby explained on CNN, “Hamas actually gave a counterorder telling Palestinians in Gaza to stay at home. Why? Because having human shields, they think, protects them.”Hamas’ use of human shields is not new. Hamas has come close to confessing its exploitation of civilians before. During an organized 2016 uprising at the Gaza border, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar admitted the group “decided to turn that which is most dear to us — the bodies of our women and children — into a dam blocking the collapse in Arab reality.” After acknowledging Hamas builds tunnels to protect fighters but not civilians, Abu Marzouk ventured that it is the job of the United Nations, not Hamas, to protect civilians. It might have been hard to say that with a straight face, since Hamas also has a long record of turning UN facilities into part of its wall of human shields.
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), whose mission is to provide relief for Palestinians, has repeatedly found stores of Hamas rockets hidden in tunnels beneath its schools. In 2018, Congress passed the Sanctioning the Use of Civilians as Defenseless Shields Act, which has lain dormant since becoming law. The Shields Act, which specifically calls out Hamas, requires the president to impose sanctions on individuals determined to be using human shields, but neither Biden nor his predecessor designated any Hamas leaders. Now would be a good time to start.
Doing so is unlikely to change Hamas’ behavior, but it would send an important message both to Americans and leaders in other democratic nations.
It is not Israel but Hamas that bears moral responsibility for the death of civilians in this war. Hamas seeks to win by generating enough pressure on Israel from its allies to force an end to Israel’s military operations. Washington should make clear it will never fall for this ruse; nor should anyone else.
*Natalie Ecanow is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Conflict sending shock waves around the world
Alistair Burt/Arab News/November 03, 2023
All those I have spoken to in political and diplomatic circles recently believe that what we are seeing in Israel and Gaza following Oct. 7 is a complete game changer. There is no “patch up” or going back to some form of status quo after the ferocity and nature of the attacks by Hamas and the reprisals we are witnessing. However, the shock waves of the events may already be deeper and further reaching than in the region itself. The first efforts to contain the impact were quite rightly directed at the risk of the confrontation spreading to neighboring states. Diplomatic time was immediately put in seeking to reduce the chance of escalation in Lebanon and with Iran. There must be some chance of success. The hopes for a Middle East looking forward rather than back, building on recent regional diplomatic initiatives, developing the economies envisaged in Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, and working collectively with the rest of the world toward energy diversification on the back of COP28 are catastrophically ruined by a new outbreak of war. But no matter how common sense this might be, everyone also knows that the rise in the number of civilian casualties in Gaza might outweigh such considerations.
It is the other risks that should worry us just as much.
Western and Arab states have been bitterly and angrily divided, at a time when the cooperation needed to realize the future of the region should be at its height. There can be no disguising the support of Arab states and their populations for the people of Gaza, and for a narrative that all the events being witnessed have their origin in the oppression of Palestinians, and the failure of the West to recognize and respond to the more recent Israeli military incursions on the West Bank, the rise of settler violence, or the threat to Al-Aqsa from the more extreme Israeli protagonists. But many Western states are shocked that the brutality of the Oct. 7 attacks, and the ideology from which they sprang of hatred for Jews, is not more widely condemned. This sharp division is of comfort only to those who want to see that new opportunity for the Middle East destroyed, so that the old can hold back the new. The longer this division goes on, the worse it will be. Repair should be starting now.
Truth is no longer a universal commodity, but only selective and partisan. This will not end well. Common belief in the truth of events, the fundamental of our understanding of history and the world, is another casualty. The world is different to 1967, 1971 or 2006. The ability to see the most shocking images of war has changed out of all recognition, as has the skill in dissemination of false images and information. Both are combining with the febrile context of Israel and Palestine to make a binary interpretation of events the most common one, infecting public and private opinion globally. Commentators are reporting the difficulty in expressing the view that the nature of the attacks on civilians by Hamas on Oct. 7 were barbaric and unjustifiable, while at the same time being able to say that there is a legitimate Palestinian cause against occupation of Palestinian territories and for political progress outlined for decades. It is either the one or the other — as the UN secretary-general found out. Truth is no longer a universal commodity, but only selective and partisan. This will not end well.
Two further consequences are worth noting. One is the evidence of a rise of antisemitism in European societies. In Britain, the Jewish community is horrified by the ripping down of posters of kidnapped children; the vehemence of pro-Palestinian demonstrations; and the casual expression of threats to their lives uttered either knowingly or ignorantly by some who mix with others marching for a peaceful, just resolution of the crisis. And, second, Western politics are being affected. In the UK, the Labour opposition, seemingly on a glide path to power, has been rocked by a surge of anger over Israeli attacks in Gaza and a demand for a ceasefire from many members, being resisted by a leadership scarred by recent controversies over antisemitism. This is in a country with a growing Muslim population, whose presence in key seats at a close election might be crucial. And in the US, Muslim support for President Joe Biden in key swing states is falling as anger against US policy rises. Elections loom in 2024 for both countries. There are many reasons why the conflict in Gaza should come to an end now so that politics can begin again, as they inevitably will as the world calculates yet again what has been gained or lost by the violence. Repairing shattered lives in Israel and Palestine will not be the only thing that requires attention.
• Alistair Burt is a former UK Member of Parliament who has twice held ministerial positions in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office — as Parliamentary Under Secretary of State from 2010 to 2013 and as Minister of State for the Middle East from 2017 to 2019. Twitter: @AlistairBurtUK

Rules of war are being rewritten in Gaza
*Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/November 03, 2023
Israel has described its indiscriminate bombing of Gaza, and its targeting of hospitals, schools, shelters, refugee camps and civilian cars, as lawful self-defense. While states, like individuals, have that right, international law has long put important restrictions on the exercise of that right. Self-defense is an exception to the prohibition against use of force under the UN charter and customary international law, and as an exception should be interpreted narrowly.
Some of Israel’s supporters, while disagreeing with its excesses, have asserted that it has the right to defend itself, which has been misconstrued as implicitly condoning its relentless attacks against Gaza. There have been clarifications, but not enough to dispel the notion that some Western nations are acquiescing.
Clearly, war to avenge an earlier attack, no matter how gruesome, cannot be legally considered in itself as legitimate self-defense, and even when it is so considered, it needs to be carried out in accordance with those rules of war, including the rules of necessity, proportionality and sanctity of civilians and civilian structures.According to the Geneva Conventions as interpreted by the International Committee of the Red Cross and the International Court of Justice, the rule of necessity requires that force may be lawfully used in self-defense only when this is necessary to bring an attack to an end, or to avert an imminent attack, and there must be no practical alternative to the proposed use of force that is likely to be effective in ending or averting the attack. In other words, force should not be the first recourse but the last, when all peaceful means have been exhausted, and when there is no practical non-military alternative. Force must be limited to what is necessary to avert an imminent attack or bring it to an end. Self-defense must also comply with the rule of proportionality, which has been misapplied in the Gaza conflict. It means that the force used must not be excessive in relation to the need to avert or bring the attack to an end. The human, physical and economic consequences of the force used must not be excessive in relation to the harm expected from that attack. The proportionality criterion also means that the physical and economic consequences of the force used must not be excessive in relation to the harm expected from the adversary’s attack. The right of self-defense does not permit the use of force to “punish” an aggressor
The right of self-defense does not permit the use of force to “punish” an aggressor and, as such, proportionality should not be thought to refer to parity between a response and the harm already suffered from an attack, as this could turn the concept of self-defense into a justification for retributive force.
Protection of civilians during war should not be controversial. In modern times, that hallowed principle was codified in the Geneva Convention of 1864 and the Hague Convention of 1907. After the Second World War, the rules were rewritten to enhance that protection of civilians, in light of the unspeakable atrocities against them during the war, especially against Jewish communities in European lands overrun by Nazi Germany. The four Geneva Conventions of 1949 and their additional protocols of 1977 have been signed and ratified by 196 countries — all of the UN 193 member states, plus the two non-member UN observer states (the Holy See and Palestine), and the Cook Islands. There are few international instruments that have been so unanimously accepted.
The Fourth Geneva Convention is dedicated to protecting civilian populations. While Israel has ratified that convention, it has unilaterally declared that it does not apply to its occupation of Palestinian lands including Gaza. It claims that it alone decides how to treat Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. The UN has repeatedly reaffirmed the applicability of the Geneva Conventions to the Occupied Territories, as has the US, Israel’s closest ally, and almost every other nation and legal authority addressing this issue. Failure to uphold international humanitarian law in the war against Gaza has been the main bone of contention between Israel and the international community and certainly its neighbors. As Israel refuses to observe international humanitarian law in Gaza, it is not clear what legal yardsticks it uses to guide its military’s conduct. Many were alarmed when, on Oct. 10, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told his soldiers: “We have removed every restriction.”Then, on Oct. 29, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu compared the attacks on Israel to those of the Amalekites in ancient history. Citing the Old Testament, he said: “Remember what Amalek did to you. We remember and we fight,” according to the translation published by his office.
Invoking this bloody episode was ominous, because the rest of the text he cited goes on to say: “You must destroy the Amalekites and erase their memory from under heaven. Never forget this.” In another chapter, it said that the memory of the Amalekites was indeed “erased” after they were put to the sword in later attacks.The no-holds-barred policy described by Israel’s defense minister and the genocidal vengeance cited by the prime minister should not be acceptable substitutes for the Geneva Conventions.
*Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the Gulf Cooperation Council assistant secretary-general for political affairs and negotiation. The views expressed here are personal and do not necessarily represent the GCC. X: @abuhamad1

Women and children bear the brunt of Gaza’s war
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/November 03, 2023
In films, a dramatic moment of imminent danger or wartime crisis is often accompanied by the phrase: “Save the women and children first.” This is because, as in every conflict, women and children tend to suffer most and bear a disproportionate burden. However, while the “women and children first” approach in movies means they are considered innocent civilians, in present-day circumstances, they are the ones facing the harshest impact of war.
Throughout history, women and children have consistently borne the brunt of the consequences of war, suffering long-term hardships. Israel’s war in Gaza exemplifies this tragic reality, as it continues to take a heavy toll on the lives of women and children with each passing day.
A report from the UN reveals that women and children make up 70 percent of the deaths in Gaza. According to the UN Population Fund, about 50,000 pregnant women in the Gaza Strip lack access to essential health services and over 5,500 women are expected to give birth, all in the absence of adequate medical facilities. If Israel continues to block humanitarian aid from entering Gaza, many of these pregnant women will have no safe place to give birth, with most likely to experience complications. Some reports have even described women giving birth by emergency C-section with no power, using only the light of mobile phones. These women, living in a constant state of fear, discomfort and depression, are desperately seeking a safe environment to bring their unborn children into the world.
A UN rapid gender analysis of the situation echoes these concerns. This war is expected to result in increased maternal and infant mortality and morbidity, undermining the healthcare progress previously achieved in Palestine. Also, lack of clean water poses a crisis for parents, primarily mothers, trying to feed their babies. As Gaza struggles to treat thousands of people injured by Israeli airstrikes, these needs will likely go largely unmet. Furthermore, Human Rights Watch has reported that the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Gaza is disproportionately affecting women and girls in specific and devastating ways. Shelter conditions in Gaza for the estimated 1.4 million internally displaced people have become dire, with women and girls facing severe shortages of menstrual hygiene products, and experiencing cases of sexually transmitted diseases and urinary tract infections, often without access to medical treatment available in the severely overcrowded shelters.Shelter conditions in Gaza for the estimated 1.4 million internally displaced people have become dire.
All of these challenges pose additional risks to the health and lives of women and children. Their suffering underscores the urgent need for the international community to press for the restoration of electricity and water supplies, the allowance of fuel into Gaza, and the opening of border crossings for humanitarian aid.Even before the current war, the situation in Gaza was desperate, with residents enduring Israeli airstrikes in multiple rounds of conflict over the past few years, leading to 98 percent of women fearing for their safety. Depression levels among women were already high due to a profound sense of hopelessness.
The Middle East has a long history of women’s struggle for fundamental rights, and against military occupation, patriarchy, homophobia, terrorism, domestic violence and poor working conditions. Thus, Palestinian women have their own long history of fighting for their rights. However, what is happening now is an unprecedented war that the region has not witnessed for decades.Amid all the atrocities of the Gaza war, this week marked the anniversary of the UN Security Council Resolution 1325 on “Women, Peace, and Security.” In October 2000, the resolution was adopted, recognizing the role of women in strengthening their participation in decision-making, ending sexual violence and impunity, and strengthening prospects for sustainable peace. Despite several resolutions aimed at addressing gender-based violence during wars, the international community’s inadequacy is glaring, particularly given the staggering numbers of casualties among women that these international legal mechanisms were designed to protect. The international community and the field of international relations often overlook women and children under the conflation of “womenandchildren” — a one-word term coined by the feminist scholar Cynthia Enloe. They are often depicted as victims of war. However, when Enloe and other scholars speak about those most affected by war, they tend to mean women and children are more than just victims. On the contrary, they can be — and have been — active participants for the peace-building efforts. The links between women’s development, peace, security, and human rights cannot be denied. To a great extent, women need to be actively included and involved in the formal aspects of the peace process so that they can advocate for their rights and rally for peace at a national level.
Even though women are often the hardest hit by wars, including in Gaza, they are more than just victims; they are crucial figures in the efforts to build peace. Like everyone else, we hope for an end to this war, and look forward to the day when women are not the most affected during war but, rather, the most influential in the peace-building efforts.
• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz