English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For May 27/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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15 آذار/2023

Bible Quotations For today
Love your enemies and pray for those who persecute you, so that you may be children of your Father in heaven
Matthew 05/43-48/:”‘You have heard that it was said, “You shall love your neighbour and hate your enemy.”But I say to you, Love your enemies and pray for those who persecute you, so that you may be children of your Father in heaven; for he makes his sun rise on the evil and on the good, and sends rain on the righteous and on the unrighteous. For if you love those who love you, what reward do you have? Do not even the tax-collectors do the same? And if you greet only your brothers and sisters, what more are you doing than others? Do not even the Gentiles do the same? Be perfect, therefore, as your heavenly Father is perfect.””

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 26-27/2023
Video and text: Southern Liberation Day is a heresy, a lie and a falsification of history. It must be cancelled and erased from the memory of Lebanon and the Lebanese./Elias Bejjani/May 25/2021
Cabinet session tackles Riad Salameh's fate and Syrian refugees file
Mikati chairs Cabinet session at Grand Serail
Berri calls House Committees to hold joint session upcoming Wednesday
Opposition, Change and independent MPs urge end to Hezbollah arms
Mikati expects president before June 15, Bassil ready to intensify talks
Mikati hits back at FPM over Cabinet session
Geagea, Bassil slam 'unconstitutional' and 'provocative' cabinet session
FPM says opposition showing positivity as Azour chances reportedly surge
World Bank OKs $300 mn to support vulnerable Lebanese
Special Investigation Commission's statement on Lebanon's potential gray list placement
Curbing money laundering: Exploring BDL's circular 165
Controversy and conversion: Syrian refugees in Lebanon receive aid in dollars
MP Sami Gemayel meets with Fifty Fifty delegation and National Alliance to discuss gender equality
A new era in Lebanese politics: Taymour Jumblatt's leadership challenges
Army chief receives Swiss, Norwegian, German Ambassadors, Secretary General of Lebanese-Syrian Supreme Council
USAID Celebrates Graduation of 91 Students at American University of Beirut
Geagea: Cabinet session is unconstitutional because most of its agenda items are not urgent
Maharat Foundation: “A Bleak Lebanese Future Ahead: Grey listing by FTFA & Interpol Red Notice Receipt”
Lebanon Says to Take Steps to Fix Finance Sector Shortfalls
Cutting edge High-Performance Computing for Lebanon facility launched under Mikati’s auspices
Mikati meets UN’s Riza
Gasoline and diesel prices increase while gas price remains stable in Lebanon
How regional deal-making might affect Hezbollah and Lebanon/Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/May 26/2023
Hizbullah and Russia’s Nascent Alliance/Aurora Ortega and Dr Matthew Levitt/Rusi/26 May/2023

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 26-27/2023
Iran unveils latest ballistic missile version amid tensions over nuclear program
Israeli settler kills Palestinian who attempted stabbing -army
Palestinian man killed after alleged stabbing attempt in West Bank settlement
Belgium, Iran conduct prisoner swap in Oman, freeing aid worker and diplomat convicted in bomb plot
Russia says Ukraine attacks border regions; Moscow's forces strike Dnipro clinic
Russia's Medvedev Says West Underestimates Risks of Nuclear Escalation
As Russia Makes Another Nuclear Threat In The Ukraine War, Should We Be Worried?
Ukraine shoots down 10 missiles in Russian attacks, oil depot hit
Saudi, U.S report better adherence to Sudan ceasefire by warring forces after days of fighting
US says refugees can't return now, won't interfere in presidential file
Kurdistan regional government says it opposes changes in draft Iraq federal budget
Oil broadly steady amid OPEC+ supply cut uncertainty, demand worries
France has given up on defending Europe

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 26-27/2023
Question: “Is eternal security a “license” to sin?”/GotQuestions.org/May 26/2023
The Jihad on Christians in Mozambique/Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute./May 26, 2023
The Promises and Fallacies of the Saudi-Iranian Diplomatic Interlude, and the Search of a Regional Order./Charles Elias Chartouni/May 26/2023
Battle for Bakhmut could be a turning point in Russia-Ukraine war/Dr. Diana Galeeva/Arab News/May 26, 2023
Is OPEC About to Play With Oil Prices as the Summer Driving Season Starts?/Simon Henderson/The Messenger/May 26/2023
Russia and Iran press ahead with ‘New Suez/Nikola Mikovic/The Arab Weekly/May 26/2026
How Much Did You Pay to Stop the Smuggling of Captagon?/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/May 26/2023
Iran’s National Security Council Shuffle Signals Business as Usual/Farzin Nadimi/The Washington Institute./May 26/2023

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 26-27/2023
Video and text: Southern Liberation Day is a heresy, a lie and a falsification of history. It must be cancelled and erased from the memory of Lebanon and the Lebanese.
Elias Bejjani/May 25/2021
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/75168/elias-bejjani-hezbollahs-bogus-liberation-resistance-day-3/
We call on the Lebanese government, the Lebanese Parliament and on all the free and patriotic Lebanese politicians and leaders to cancel the May 25 National Day, because it is not national at all, and also to stop calling Hezbollah a resistance, put an end for its mini-state, cantons and weaponry, and secure a dignified, honorable and safe return for all the Lebanese citizens who have been taking refuge in Israel since May 2000.
Believe it or not, on May 25 each year since 2000 Lebanon has been celebrating the so-called “Liberation & Resistance Day.” Sadly, this celebration commemorates a bogus event, and a phony heroism that did not actually take place. On May 22, 2000 the Israeli Army unilaterally and for solely Israeli domestic reasons withdrew from the security zone of South Lebanon in accordance with UN Resolution 425.
This miscalculated and hasty withdrawal was a fatal Israeli decision that has inspired the Hamas terrorism acts and the on-going havoc in the Palestinian Gaza strip. Since 2000 many Israeli officials and politicians from all parties openly and harshly criticized Barak’s Government (Barak was PM at that time) hasty and unwise decision through which Israel’ abandoned its ally the South Lebanon Army (SLA) and gave Hezbollah all south Lebanon and the entire Lebanon on a plate of sliver. The unilateral Israeli withdrawal created a security vacuum in south Lebanon.
The Syrians who were occupying Lebanon at that time and fully controlling its government, did not allow the Lebanese Army to deploy in the south and fill this vacuum after the Israeli withdrawal. Instead Syria helped the Hezbollah militia to militarily control the whole southern region, and even patrol the Israeli-Lebanese border.
It is worth mentioning that the Israeli army’s withdrawal was executed without any military battles, or even minor skirmishes with Hezbollah, or the Lebanese and Syrian armies. At the same numerous reports published in German and in other western media facilities indicated with proves that Israel forged a secret deal with Hezbollah and its masters, the Iranian Mullahs that mutually arranged all details for the withdrawal.
The Syrian regime, in a bid to justify both its on going occupation of Lebanon and the avoidance of disarming Hezbollah, came up with the “Shabaa Farms occupation big lie” and declared Hezbollah a Liberator, alleging it had forced Israel to withdrawal from South Lebanon. Syria, in the same camouflaging and devious context, dictated to both its puppet Lebanese parliament and government to declare May 25th a National Day under the tag of “Liberation & Resistance Day”.
In reality Hezbollah did not force the Israeli withdrawal, and did not play any role in the Liberation of the southern Lebanese region. In fact both Hezbollah and Syria deliberately hindered and delayed the Israeli withdrawal for more than 14 years. Every time the Israelis called on the Lebanese government to engage in a joint, serious effort under the United Nations umbrella to ensure a safe and mutually organized withdrawal of its army from South Lebanon, the Lebanese government refused to cooperate, did not agree to deploy its army in the south, and accused the Israelis of plotting to divide and split the Syrian-Lebanese joint track.
Since then, Hezbollah has been hijacking Lebanon and its people, refusing to disarm and advocating for the annihilation of Israel. This Iranian mullahs’ terrorist army stationed in Lebanon, is viciously hiding behind labels of resistance, liberation and religion. Hezbollah has recklessly jeopardized the Lebanese peoples’ lives, safety, security and livelihood. It has been growing bolder and bolder and mercilessly taking the Lebanese state and the Lebanese people hostages through terrorism, force and organized crime.
Sadly, Hezbollah is systematically devouring Lebanon day after day, and piece by piece, while at the same time marginalizing all its governmental institutions in a bid to topple the Lebanese state and erect in its place a Shiite Muslim regime, a replica of the Iranian Shiite mullahs’ fundamentalist republic.
Meanwhile the free world and Arabic countries are totally silent, indifferent, and idly watching from far away the horrible crime unfolding without taking any practical or tangible measures to put an end to this anti-Lebanese Syria-Iranian scheme that is executed through their spearhead, the Hezbollah armed militia.
Who is to be blamed for Hezbollah’s current odd and bizarre status? Definitely the Syrians who have occupied Lebanon for more than 28 years (1976-2005). During their bloody and criminal occupation, Syria helped the Iranian Hezbollah militia build a state within Lebanon and fully control the Lebanese Shiite community. But also the majority of the Lebanese politicians, leaders, officials and clergymen share the responsibility because they were subservient and acted in a dire Dhimmitude, selfish and cowardly manner.
If these so-called Lebanese leaders had been courageous and patriotic and had not appeased Hezbollah and turned a blind eye to all its vicious and human rights atrocities, intimidation tactics, crimes and expansionism schemes, this Iranian Shiite fundamentalist militia would not have been able to erect its own mini-state in the southern suburb of Beirut, and its numerous mini-cantons in the Bekaa Valley and the South; nor would Hezbollah have been able to build its mighty military power, with 100 thousand militiamen, or stockpile thousand of missiles and force the Iranian “Wilayat Al-Faqih” religious doctrine on the Lebanese Shiite community and confiscate Lebanon's decision making process and freedoms.
Since Hezbollah’s emergence in 1982, these politicians have been serving their own selfish interests and not the interests of the Lebanese people and the nation. They went along with Hezbollah’s schemes, deluding themselves that its militia and weaponry would remain in South Lebanon and would not turn against them. This failure to serve the people of Lebanon allowed Hezbollah to make many Lebanese and most of the Arab-Muslim countries through its terrorism propaganda to blindly swallow its big lie of theatrical, faked resistance and Liberation.
Hezbollah would not have been able to refuse to disarm in 1991, like all the other Lebanese militias in accordance to the “Taef Accord,” which called for the disarmament of all militias. Hezbollah would not have become a state inside the Lebanese state, and a world-wide terrorism Iranian-Syrian tool which turned against them all after its war with Israel in year 2006 and after the UN troops were deployed on the Lebanese – Israeli borders in accordance with the UN Resolution 1701.
On May 7, 2008 Hezbollah invaded Sunni Western Beirut killing and injuring in cold blood hundreds of its civilian citizens, and too attempted to take over by force Mount Lebanon. Hezbollah’s General Secretary Sheik Hassan Nasrallah called that day (May 7, 2008) a great and glorious victory for his resistance, and keeps on threatening the Lebanese that a replicate of that day will take place if they do not succumb and obey his Iranian orders. Hezbollah is a deadly dragon that the Lebanese politicians have been allowing him to feed on sacrifices from the southern Lebanese citizens, especially on those who were living in the “Security Zone” and who fled to Israel in May 2000 after the Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon. This dragon who enjoyed devouring his southern sacrifices has now turned on all the Lebanese and if they do not stand for their rights and dignity, he will keep on devouring them all one after the other.
We call on the Lebanese government, the Lebanese Parliament and on all the free and patriotic Lebanese politicians and leaders to cancel the May 25 National Day, because it is not national at all, and also to stop calling Hezbollah a resistance, put an end for its mini-state, cantons and weaponry, and secure a dignified, honorable and safe return for all the Lebanese citizens who have been taking refuge in Israel since May 2000.

Cabinet session tackles Riad Salameh's fate and Syrian refugees file
LBCI/May 26/2023
The caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, affirmed that he is in the process of calling for a Cabinet session dedicated to the issue of Syrian refugees. During this session, all points will be discussed in preparation for his speech at the European Union conference in Brussels on June 15. Displaced Minister, Issam Sharafeddine, has been tasked with preparing for the ministerial session and the ministerial committee meeting specialized in the refugee file, which will be held before the government session. At the end of the Cabinet session, regarding the issue of the Central Bank of Lebanon Governor, Riad Salameh, Mikati stated, "regarding the issue of the Central Bank governorship, we had discussed it extensively during the consultative meeting we held on Monday, and we agreed that the matter is in the hands of the judiciary under Lebanese law. I emphasized that it is not permissible for us to appear as if one party is seeking revenge and another is seeking protection." He further added, "it would be the easiest thing to say today to dismiss the governor, but out of respect for institutions and the opinions of the participating ministers, and after the Deputy Prime Minister presented a written memorandum on this matter, I will now present the issue for further discussion in order to make the appropriate decision."

Mikati chairs Cabinet session at Grand Serail
NNA/May 26/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, is currently chairing a cabinet session at the Grand Serail, in the presence of Caretaker Deputy Prime Minister, Saade Chami, and Caretaker Ministers of Education and Higher Education Judge Abbas Al-Halabi, Information Ziad Makary, Youth and Sports George Kallas, Displaced Essam Sharaf Al-Din, Finance Dr. Youssef Khalil, Administrative Development Affairs Najla Riachi, Industry George Bouchikian, Tele-Communications Johnny Corm, Tourism Walid Nassar, Interior and Municipalities Judge Bassam Mawlawi, Culture Judge Mohammad Wissam Mortada, Environment Nasser Yassin, Labor Mustafa Bayram, Agriculture Dr. Abbas Hajj Hassan, and Public Works and Transportation Ali Hamieh. The Cabinet session also took place in the presence of The Director-General of the Presidency of the Republic, Dr. Antoine Choucair, and the Secretary-General of the Council of Ministers Judge Mahmoud Makiya.

Berri calls House Committees to hold joint session upcoming Wednesday
NNA/May 26/2023
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Friday called the parliamentary committees of Finance and Budget, Administration and Justice, Public Health, Labor and Social Affairs, National Economy, Trade, Industry and Planning, to meet in a joint session at 10:30 am next Wednesday, May 31, to discuss an array of agenda items.

Opposition, Change and independent MPs urge end to Hezbollah arms
Naharnet/May 26/2023
The MPs of the Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb Party and the Tajaddod bloc in addition to Change MPs Waddah al-Sadek, Mark Daou and Michel Doueihi on Friday slammed Hezbollah’s latest military drill, saying it “provoked the majority of the Lebanese and the content of the Jeddah Arab Summit declaration.”
“Through this drill, it wanted to tell the Lebanese, Arabs and the world that its sovereignty is above that of the Lebanese state, that the state has no sovereignty over its territory, and that there can be no decision in Lebanon that defies its will and the will of the regional axis it belongs to,” the MPs said in a statement.
“Hezbollah is telling us, through this military exercise, that these arms are protecting corrupts, paralyzing the institutions of the government and parliament, preventing reform and an end to the collapse, and undermining Lebanon’s ties with the Arab and international communities,” the MPs added.
“Hezbollah’s abnormal state no longer has a place in Lebanese political life and it has become detested by the majority of the Lebanese people,” the lawmakers went on to say. Accordingly, they pointed out that “it has become confirmed that Lebanon the state cannot coexist with Lebanon the statelet.”
“Resolving this dilemma has become an urgent duty, through ending Hezbollah’s armed state and implementing the Taif Accord and the constitution resulting from it, which stipulated dissolving militias and limiting weapons to the hands of the state and its legitimate security institutions,” the legislators added, while also calling for “implementing U.N. Security Council resolutions 1559 and 1701.”Hezbollah put on a show of force on Sunday, extending a rare media invitation to one of its training sites in southern Lebanon, where its forces staged a simulated military exercise. Masked fighters jumped through flaming hoops, fired from the backs of motorcycles, and blew up Israeli flags posted in the hills above and a wall simulating the one at the border between Lebanon and Israel. Senior Hezbollah official Hashem Safieddine said in a speech Sunday that the exercise was meant to "confirm our complete readiness to confront any aggression" by Israel. And on Wednesday, Hezbollah’s top lawmaker Mohammed Raad said that the drill was aimed at telling Israel that Lebanon’s presidential crisis will not divert Hezbollah’s attention from confronting Israel’s “aggression against our sovereignty.”“Some said that this was addressed to the Lebanese interior, knowing that the Lebanese interior does not need resistance, but rather dialogue, understanding and the rhetoric of tolerance among the sons of the same country,” Raad said.

Mikati expects president before June 15, Bassil ready to intensify talks
Naharnet/May 26/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati is stressing in his meetings with visitors that a new president will be elected before June 15, without revealing if he has information that supports his expectation, Asharq al-Awsat newspaper reported on Friday. An opposition source meanwhile told the daily that negotiations between the Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb Party and the Free Patriotic Movement will enter a “new stage.”MP Ghassan Skaff, who met with Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil in Paris, meanwhile sensed that the FPM chief is “fully ready to intensify dialogue with the opposition forces,” the source said. “Skaff communicated with the leaderships of the LF and Kataeb prior to his return to Beirut and he will continue his contacts in the coming hours,” the source added, hoping the parties opposed to Suleiman Franjieh “will reach an agreement over a competitor candidate in the coming days.”

Mikati hits back at FPM over Cabinet session
Naharnet/May 26/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Friday snapped back at the Free Patriotic Movement after its chief Jebran Bassil strongly criticized him over the issue of holding cabinet sessions amid the ongoing presidential vacuum. “Our session is being held today amid a campaign against the government waged by a political group that is boycotting the sessions without offering a logical explanation for its stance,” Mikati lamented at the beginning of a Cabinet session at the Grand Serail. Amid the presidential vacuum, “should the government halt the work of institutions and permanently paralyze people’s interests?” Mikati wondered. “Does the government bear the responsibility for the presidential void or are the MPs responsible for that? And who said that the ministers taking part in Cabinet sessions do not represent all Lebanese components?” the premier asked. Defending himself against the FPM’s attacks, Mikati added: “Is it acceptable for political disagreements to reach the extent of insulting people’s dignity and their significant presence in all forums?”Separately, Mikati revealed that he will soon call for a Cabinet session dedicated to the Syrian refugee file ahead of an EU conference that will be held in Brussels on June 15.

Geagea, Bassil slam 'unconstitutional' and 'provocative' cabinet session
Naharnet/May 26/2023
Lebanese Force chief Samir Geagea on Friday described a Cabinet meeting that got underway at 3:00 pm as “unconstitutional,” noting that “the majority of the items on its agenda are not urgent.”Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil for his part lashed out at caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, calling him the head of a “caretaker government that lacks complete legitimacy, constitutionalism and respect for the National Pact.”“In the name of the force majeure and the state’s higher interest, he has called for a cabinet session to discuss 72 necessary, urgent and emergency issues, including mutual consent contracts, ordinary lines of credit and appointing a board of directors for the cannabis cultivation regulatory commission,” Bassil said in a tweet. “This is a major provocation and a blow to the National Pact, partnership and the constitution. What’s worse is that the matter is happening amid the silence of spiritual and political leaders who claim to be keen on the presidency post and who call for a speedy election of the president,” Bassil lamented. “Those calling for such sessions are deliberately continuing the policy of keeping the post vacant so that they manage to fill it with someone that they want or want to impose,” the FPM chief added.

FPM says opposition showing positivity as Azour chances reportedly surge
Naharnet/May 26/2023
The Free Patriotic Movement said Friday that the opposition is showing "positivity" regarding presidential candidates and that this positivity "will soon apply to the approach and program.""We have been showing positivity since last July," the FPM said in a statement. "What has changed is the positivity that the opposition forces have started to show."Meanwhile, Kataeb sources told al-Jadeed that communication is ongoing between the FPM, and the opposition forces, including the Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb party.
Ex-minister Jihad Azour has the highest chances so far, the sources said, adding that "more coordination is needed before announcing the candidate."

World Bank OKs $300 mn to support vulnerable Lebanese
Associated Press/May 26/2023
The World Bank approved a $300 million additional financing to Lebanon's poor, providing cash payments to help families struggling through the country's historic economic meltdown, institution said in a statement Friday. The new financing comes two years after the World Bank approved a $246 million loan to Lebanon to provide emergency cash assistance to hundreds of thousands in the tiny Mediterranean nation of 6 million people. Lebanon is in the throes of the worst economic and financial crisis in its modern history. The meltdown, rooted in decades of corruption and mismanagement by Lebanon's ruling class, began in October 2019 and has left more than three quarters of Lebanon's population in poverty. "The additional financing will enable the Government of Lebanon to continue to respond to the growing needs of poor and vulnerable households suffering under the severe economic and financial crisis," said Jean-Christophe Carret, World Bank Middle East Country Director. The World Bank said the additional financing will provide cash transfers to 160,000 households for 24 months, including current beneficiaries. Eligible households will receive up to $145 per household, the bank said. The project is jointly handled by Lebanon's Ministry of Social Affairs and the World Food Program. The Lebanese pound has lost more than 95% of its value at the start of the economic crisis, leaving many of the country's residents, including 1 million Syrian refugees, in need for help. The World Bank announcement came after a separate announcement by the U.N. refugee agency and the WFP on Wednesday that they will start making aid payments to refugees in Lebanon in dollars, rather than in Lebanese pounds, with a maximum of $125 per family per month. Since the collapse of Lebanon's currency, the UN agencies had been paying assistance to refugees in Lebanese pounds. Before the change announced this week, refugee households received a maximum of 8 million pounds per month, worth about $80 at the current exchange rate. However, "the rapid depreciation of the pound, increased fluctuations of the exchange rate, and the strain on the financial provider in supplying large volumes of cash in Lebanese pounds" led to the change, UNHCR and WFP officials said in a statement. U.N. officials said the change had been made in consultation with the Lebanese government. But Lebanon's caretaker Social Affairs Minister Hector Hajjar that Beirut opposes paying Syrian refugees in U.S. dollars. "We rejected this because paying Syrian refugees in (U.S.) dollars would make them stay in Lebanon," Hajjar said. He added that most of the Syrian refugees in Lebanon are "economic refugees and not refugees who fled because of security and political reasons." Sentiments against Syrian refugees in Lebanon have been on the rise since the economic crisis began and since government forces took control of much of the neighboring country. Some Lebanese now say that it is safe for many of the Syrian refugees to return home. In recent weeks, the Lebanese army launched a series of raids on refugee settlements, arresting and in many cases deporting those found not to have legal residency documents.

Special Investigation Commission's statement on Lebanon's potential gray list placement
LBCI/May 26/2023
Statement from the Special Investigation Commission of the Lebanese Financial Information Unit regarding discussions about the gray list: The Special Investigation Commission of the Lebanese Financial Information Unit informs that, in reference to recent data and analyses that suggest Lebanon may be placed on the gray list this week, the Mutual Evaluation Report of the Lebanese Republic was discussed and adopted during the working group meetings and the thirty-sixth plenary meeting of the Middle East and North Africa Financial Action Task Force (MENAFATF), which concluded in the Kingdom of Bahrain on Thursday. The adoption of this report comes from a lengthy process spanning sixteen months, during which the evaluation of Lebanon's anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing system was conducted under challenging circumstances following the Financial Action Task Force's (FATF) methodology for assessing all countries. "The report will identify the vulnerabilities that need to be addressed in Lebanon, as well as highlight the positive aspects of the country's anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing system. Consequently, Lebanon must take corrective measures to address the identified vulnerabilities and provide a follow-up report to the MENAFATF in 2024. As per the established procedures, the approved report will be published in June 2023, and thereafter, an official statement will be issued regarding its content," it added.

Curbing money laundering: Exploring BDL's circular 165
LBCI/May 26/2023
When an American delegation visited Lebanon during Michel Aoun's term, their main concern was to curb the cash economy in Lebanon. This refers to all transactions conducted in fresh dollars outside the banking system, essentially without any control over the dollar, which means an increase in money laundering operations. Since then, instead of shrinking, the cash economy has grown larger. Based on this reality and with the support of international financial organizations and the US Treasury Department, Lebanon's Central Bank, Banque du Liban (BDL), issued circular 165, which allows banks to deal with fresh dollar checks and fresh dollar bank cards starting from June 1. This circular does not require banks to deposit their entire fresh dollar reserves with BDL, which currently amounts to around $2 billion. Instead, it obliges them to deposit amounts that cover the checks they issue in fresh dollars or Lebanese lira, as well as the bank cards that also rely on fresh dollars of the same value. Furthermore, this circular will also be sufficient for companies or individuals who wish to conduct money transfers in fresh dollars through correspondent banks, thus further curbing money laundering operations. While banking sources denied that the purpose of the circular is to eliminate old deposits, they pointed out that the fate of these deposits is tied to pending legislation in parliament, ranging from a recovery plan to capital controls to bank restructuring.

Controversy and conversion: Syrian refugees in Lebanon receive aid in dollars
LBCI/May 26/2023
Syrian refugees in Lebanon have begun receiving aid in dollars instead of the local currency. The UNHCR initiated this measure two days ago, on Wednesday, despite objections from the Social Affairs Minister. Previously, around 230,000 Syrian families, totaling approximately 1.5 million displaced individuals, received aid amounting to LBP 2.5 million per family and LBP 1.1 million per person (up to 5 individuals). However, due to the depreciation of the Lebanese lira and its conversion rate to the dollar, the UNHCR requested an increase in the aid amount starting in March. The UNHCR insisted on providing $40 per family and $20 per individual, equivalent to $140 per family. Despite negotiations between the ministry and the UNHCR since March, the Social Affairs Minister rejected this proposal, and to his surprise, the measure was implemented nonetheless. On Friday, the Social Affairs Minister met with the UN Humanitarian Coordinator, Imran Riza, who later headed to the Grand Serail to meet with the caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati. Riza expressed his willingness to collaborate with the UNHCR and the World Food Program (WFP) to develop a constructive formula for advancing the aid issue to Syrian refugees, aligning with the expectations of the Prime Minister and the Lebanese government. According to LBCI’s sources, Minister Hajjar asked Riza to reconsider the dollar issue. On another note, despite urgent requests from the Social Affairs Ministry to the UNHCR, the latter has not yet provided the ministry with the data of the displaced individuals. Ministry sources state they have noticed unreasonable demands in exchange for data sharing. With three weeks remaining until the Brussels conference to gather financial aid for the refugees and the countries hosting them, Minister Hajjar has not yet been invited to participate.

MP Sami Gemayel meets with Fifty Fifty delegation and National Alliance to discuss gender equality
LBCI/May 26/2023
The Kataeb Party leader, MP Sami Gemayel, met with a delegation from the "Fifty Fifty" organization and the National Alliance for the adoption of quotas. The meeting included the participation of MP Elias Hankach and discussed the incident at a pool in Sidon and the proposal for a law on gender parity in municipal elections prepared by the organization. Gemayel expressed his rejection of the assault on members of the organization during their protest against the restriction of Lebanese women's freedom to access the beach. He emphasized the importance of safeguarding public and individual liberties and the rights guaranteed by the Lebanese Constitution to all Lebanese men and women across the country without exception. He also emphasized that Lebanese law obliges state institutions to protect women, ensure their safety, and prevent encroachment on their freedoms.
Regarding the law proposal, Gemayel informed his visitors of the Kataeb Party's support for gender parity between men and women in municipal elections and expressed readiness to support any measures that enhance women's participation in political life at various levels.
In addition, he updated them on the ongoing discussions in the subcommittee on the Municipalities Law, which is examining the proposed law that includes a quota of at least 30 percent for women in municipal elections, in line with Lebanon's commitments in the CEDAW (Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women) agreement.

A new era in Lebanese politics: Taymour Jumblatt's leadership challenges
LBCI/May 26/2023
From Walid Jumblatt to Taymour Jumblatt, politics, decisions, stances, and obligations are shifting. The first of these obligations is the election of a new president. The Democratic Gathering Bloc, supported by the Progressive Socialist Party and its leader, has always been pivotal in this matter and other obligations. Today, after Walid Jumblatt's resignation from the party's leadership, all eyes will be on Taymour and how he will deal with this obligation as the head of the bloc and the party's leader. While Jumblatt is known for his political expertise and ability to maneuver when needed, Taymour, as some know him, is decisive, even firm, in his positions.His latest declaration on April 1, when he specified the qualities required for the president and the necessity of a consensus-building figure who poses no challenge to anyone, exemplifies his stance. Taymour's stance implies an expansion in the number of opponents and the collapse of the dual reliance of Amal and Hezbollah on the votes of the Democratic Gathering Bloc to secure Sleiman Frangieh's arrival in Baabda. However, if the calculations of the Amal-Hezbollah duo point to securing 59 votes for Frangieh, including the eight votes from the Democratic Gathering Bloc, the number will decrease to 51 votes without them. This includes 15 votes from the Development and Liberation Bloc, 15 votes from the Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc, and eight votes from the independent allies of the Amal-Hezbollah duo, along with six votes from the Moderation Bloc, four votes from the Independent National Bloc composed of MPs Farid Khazen, William Tawk, Michel Murr, and Tony Frangieh, and three potential votes from the Armenian Bloc. In Jumblatt's withdrawal from the political scene, there are several messages, the most prominent of which is that the Hezbollah-Amal duo can no longer rely on the personal connections with Walid Jumblatt, further complicating the path to Baabda for Sleiman Frangieh.

Army chief receives Swiss, Norwegian, German Ambassadors, Secretary General of Lebanese-Syrian Supreme Council
NNA/May 26/2023
Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, on Friday received, at his Yarzeh office, Swiss Ambassador to Lebanon, Marion Weichelt, and Norwegian Ambassador, Martin Yttervik, where they discussed various issues.
Maj. Gen. Aoun also received German Ambassador to Lebanon, Andreas Kindl, accompanied by the Military Attaché, Lieutenant Colonel Heino Matzken. A cooperation agreement in the field of equipment was signed with the army. The army chief also received the Secretary General of the Lebanese-Syrian Supreme Council Nasri Khoury, and they discussed the general situation.
Lebanon Export Academy, first of its kind in Lebanon, graduates Lebanese agri-food MSMEs, cooperatives and start-ups, equips them for international...
NNA - On May 25, the Lebanon Export Academy hosted a graduation ceremony at Le Royal Hotel - Dbayeh awarding 50 Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), cooperatives and start-ups, of which 54% are women-led, with certificates of participation in its 9-Modules roadmap to unlock export potential. The graduation ceremony was held in the presence of Ms. Chantale Akl, Head of the Minister Office and Head of Industrial Parks and Zones Bureau, representing H.E. Mr. George Bouchikian, Minister of Industry; Ms. Zeina Harake, Head of Foreign Trade Department, representing H.E. Mr. Amin Salam, Minister of Economy and Trade; Ms. Gloria Abi Zeid, Director General of the directorate of cooperatives, representing H.E. Abbas Hajj Hassan, Minister of Agriculture; Mr. Imran Riza, United Nations Deputy Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator; Mr. Jamie Schnurr, Head of Cooperation, Embassy of Canada to Lebanon; Mr. Emmanuel Kalenzi, UNIDO Representative to Lebanon, Jordan and Syria; Ms. Melanie Hauenstein, UNDP Resident Representative in Lebanon; and Mr. Maroun Chammas, Berytech CEO.
The Lebanon Export Academy is implemented by UNIDO and UNDP in partnership with Berytech, as part of the Productive Sectors Development Programme (PSDP), a UN joint programme generously funded by the Government of Canada. The programme aims at supporting gender-responsive job creation and helping to generate economic opportunities in the agri-food and agriculture sectors in Lebanon, with a specific focus on women and female youth in disadvantaged areas.
"The PSDP has gathered all of us here today to celebrate the 50 agri-food MSMEs and cooperatives who are graduating from the Lebanon Export Academy. This academy illustrates an excellent example of Private and Public Partnership (PPP) and of an innovative e-learning platform that is available and accessible to all," said Riza in his opening remarks. "With your persistence and enthusiasm, you are helping lay the foundations for Lebanon's economic recovery, and very importantly with women at the center," he added.
Since the launch of the Lebanon Export Academy in April 2022, the academy has benefited 70 SMEs, cooperatives and start-ups, 60% of which are women-led, and has equipped them with the tools, insights and tips to enable them to export their agri-food products to new international markets.
Through in-person and online flexible modalities of learning adapted to their needs, the training packages addressed the challenges identified by experts and MSMEs in this field across the export value chain.
"Today the success of the Academy is the result of the drive and motivation of businesses, the high caliber of its trainers, and the experience of the local partner. Continuing to manage this learning platform together with the support of our government partners, we hope this success will continue in the long-run" said Ms. Alexandra Santillana, Senior Development Officer at the Embassy of Canada to Lebanon.
The courses offered by the academy have been delivered by top-notch Lebanese experts and practitioners in the field of export, who have transmitted their know-how and expertise to help MSMEs avoid export-related challenges, while maximizing their export potential. The modules have covered all export processes and procedures, ranging from researching new markets to documentation, trade agreements, quality requirements, pricing strategies, and more, making the Lebanese Export Academy a key pillar to ensuring the sustainability of the sector in the long-run.
"We believe that export-led growth is key for Lebanon's economic recovery. In this endeavor, the Lebanon Export Academy plays a significant role as it is a vital enabler and a fundamental building block. The Academy's ability to nurture and enhance the export capabilities of businesses in Lebanon aligns directly with UNDP's mission for a people-centered recovery that capitalizes on Lebanon's enormous potential", said Hauenstein.
"In the current economic situation in Lebanon where foreign exchange is increasingly needed for businesses to survive, supporting export-oriented initiatives such as the Lebanon Export Academy is of critical importance to help MSMEs sustain their businesses in the local and international markets," said Kalenzi.
For her part, Akl said: "Today, more than ever, the importance of export for Lebanon's growth and prosperity has to be emphasized. Our industrial sector holds tremendous potential, and tapping into international markets with the right knowledge and expertise is the key to unlocking that potential. Today's event truly embodies this commitment and constitutes a great example of the efficiency of Private Public Partnerships".
The role of the academy has become essential today to equip start-ups, micro, small and medium enterprises and cooperatives providing them with the needed support to ensure their project feasibility and financial sustainability while lowering their risk of failure amidst the country's current economic and financial crisis. "Integration into the world economy has become more challenging today due to the new upcoming trade policies governing international trade. In this context, we think that the "Lebanon
Export Academy" will play a vital role in facing these challenges by supporting MSMEs working in the agri-food and agriculture sector, providing a variety of in-person and online training courses covering a series of topics related to export readiness, conducting market research, understanding export documentation and legal requirements, setting export prices, and finding suitable financing options," said Harake in her opening remarks. "We appreciate the efforts exerted to establish the Lebanon Export Academy, because of its positive effects in terms of enhancing the chances of achieving some of the strategic goals set by the Ministry of Agriculture, especially in terms of reviving the livelihoods of farmers and producers, increasing productive capacity, as well as enhancing the efficiency and competitiveness of agricultural and food production chains," stressed Abi Zeid in her statement.
The graduation ceremony was also an opportunity to present the Lebanon Export Academy's innovative e-learning platform that offers business leaders online digital tools to boost their learning in a self-paced manner.

USAID Celebrates Graduation of 91 Students at American University of Beirut
NNA/May 26/2023
The Higher Education Scholarships Program (HES), funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), at the American University of Beirut (AUB) held its graduation ceremony for 91 scholars. The event was an opportunity for the U.S. government and AUB to celebrate a decade of partnership in education through USAID's HES program. U.S. Ambassador Dorothy Shea, USAID Acting Mission Director Walter Doetsch, AUB President Fadlo Khuri, AUB faculty and staff, and the scholars attended the ceremony. USAID has invested more than $70 million in this program at AUB over the past ten years, enabling more than 712 academically outstanding and economically disadvantaged students from across Lebanon to receive a world-class education. Today, USAID HES supports 254 students currently enrolled at AUB. USAID’s assistance requires students to engage in volunteer work, training workshops, internships, and community service that they conducted in their own communities to ameliorate the challenges posed by the multiple crises in Lebanon. President Khuri, addressed the audience saying that “This program has been a Godsend to the community of young Lebanese scholars, to the American University of Beirut, and to the Lebanese American University.” He added, “This has allowed us to continue to enroll the best and brightest young people, to enroll them without fear of lurching into the kind of economic elitism that can trump, and even drown out, intellectual excellence.”
In September 2022, USAID provided $30 million to AUB to support scholarships for Lebanese and refugee students. USAID further provided AUB with $19.5 million dollars in financial aid to support 1,950 enrolled students who have been significantly affected by the economic crisis.
In her remarks, Ambassador Shea stated, “This occasion is the result of U.S. Embassy’s and USAID’s continued partnership with the American University of Beirut to increase access to higher education for youth in Lebanon. We believe that education is the key to unlocking potential, opening doors, and creating opportunities. That’s why, since 2010, USAID has provided more than $70 million in full undergraduate scholarships to students from all of Lebanon’s 26 districts to study at AUB.” Dr. Malek Tabbal, provost designee at HES, concluded saying, “This program has been transformative in every sense, not only to the scholars and their families but also to all of us involved at AUB.”Founded in 1866, the American University of Beirut bases its educational philosophy, standards, and practices on the American liberal arts model of higher education. A teaching-centered research university, AUB has more than 800 full-time faculty members and a student body of about 8000 students. AUB currently offers more than 120 programs leading to bachelor’s, master’s, MD, and PhD degrees. It provides medical education and training to students from throughout the region at its Medical Center that includes a full-service 365-bed hospital.

Geagea: Cabinet session is unconstitutional because most of its agenda items are not urgent
NNA/May 26/2023
Lebanese Forces party leader, Samir Geagea, said on Friday via his Twitter account: “The cabinet meeting this afternoon is unconstitutional, because most of the agenda items for this session are neither urgent nor pressing."

Maharat Foundation: “A Bleak Lebanese Future Ahead: Grey listing by FTFA & Interpol Red Notice Receipt”
NNA/May 26/2023
More than three years into Lebanon’s financial and socioeconomic crises, officials are still denying exhaustive, adequate, and fair recovery schemes that could at the bare minimum limit the damage that’s been contrived.
The recent Lebanon Economic Monitor published by the World Bank, emphasizes the dangers of maintaining the status quo by using ineffective and costly monetary tools to halt the LBP depreciation at the expense of dwindling foreign-exchange reserves at the Central Bank.
Eschewing responsibility has been a core attribute of Lebanese policy making; an insolvent banking sector has been left without restructuring, leading to a highly dollarized cash economy which by no means, is a contributor to growth as it has deepened inequity and social inequality. In contrast, it has cloaked the origin of illegitimate activities, incentivized tax evasion, and rendered monetary policies ineffective since the cash economy accounts for 45.7% of the 2022 GDP. The Financial Action Task Force (FATF)’s relegation of Lebanon to the “grey” zone is the latest warning received by the Government of Lebanon (GoL) on its inadequate response to preventing terrorism financing and money laundering. While the consequences are dire to an already precarious economic situation in Lebanon, citizens will contend with a predicament that will expose them to a downgraded credit rating, reputational damage, and difficulty obtaining global finance, inter alia. A year after the GoL signed a Staff Level Agreement with the International Monetary Fund, the future of Lebanon looks extremely bleak as authorities hold off corrective policies that are due, and whose deferral will only aggravate living standards, and dilate social inequality.
Another major blow to Lebanon has been the receipt of an Interpol red notice against the governor of the Central Bank which exposes Lebanon to additional financial and economic risks regarding its external relations, and denigrates its standing in the international community. The culture of impunity and untouchability ought to cease immediately; we warn against futile efforts undertaken by the GoL to conceal crime evidence and stress the need to protect the public interest. We call on the GoL to immediately assume its executive role as the sole manager of Lebanon’s internal and external affairs, and shield its citizens from unnecessary deleteriousness. Followingly, we urge the parliament to proactively fulfill its monitoring responsibilities and interrogate the GoL regarding the actions that have resulted in the current predicament.—Mharat Foundation

Lebanon Says to Take Steps to Fix Finance Sector Shortfalls
Beirut: Asharq Al Awsat/May 26/2023
Lebanon will work over the next year to address deficiencies in policing corruption identified by a financial crime watchdog, the country's financial intelligence unit said on Friday. The Special Investigation Commission said in a statement it "discussed and adopted" an evaluation report by the Middle East and North Africa Financial Action Task Force (MENAFATF) during the body's plenary this week. The evaluation is a crucial step towards regaining or further degrading trust in Lebanon's financial system, which has been in a tailspin since 2019. Its authorities are struggling to implement reforms to secure a deal with the International Monetary Fund for a bailout. The report will be published in June, the commission said, without noting any amendments to the draft. A draft seen by Reuters showed Lebanon scored as only partially compliant in several categories, including anti-money laundering measures, transparency on beneficial ownership of firms and mutual legal assistance in asset freezing and confiscation. The cumulative score put Lebanon "one mark over the threshold to be grey-listed," said a diplomatic source. The commission did not respond to requests for comment. Its statement cited "recent uninformed statements and analysis that Lebanon may be listed on the 'grey list' this week'." "Lebanon will have to take corrective measures to address the identified deficiencies and submit to MENAFATF a progress report during 2024," it added. Being on the grey list could disrupt a country's capital flows, the IMF found in a 2021 paper, with banks possibly ending relationships with customers in high-risk countries to reduce compliance costs. Other risks include reputational damage, credit ratings adjustments, trouble obtaining global finance and higher transaction costs.

Cutting edge High-Performance Computing for Lebanon facility launched under Mikati’s auspices
NNA/May 26/2023
Under the auspices of the President of the Council of Ministers Najib Mikati, the Ministry of Telecommunications, in collaboration with the High-Performance Computing for Lebanon (HPC4L) steering committee, hosted an exclusive launch event of the cutting edge HPC4L facility. Attended by a distinguished audience, the event marked a significant milestone in Lebanon's scientific research and technological advancement.
Kicking off the event, Jessy Tannous, the event moderator, extended a warm welcome to the esteemed guests. The program commenced with an enlightening video introduction showcasing different phases of the project since its inception and highlighting the important role of OGERO. By providing a state-of-the-art data center and the necessary high speed international internet connection to Geneva, OGERO has emerged as the backbone and enabler of this initiative, as stated by OGERO Chairman Imad Kreidieh.
Head of IT at the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN) Enrica Porcari shed light on CERN's collaboration with Lebanon as well as their hardware donation to HPC4L, highlighting their commitment to supporting innovative initiatives. Subsequently, Patricia McBride, CMS spokesperson, shared valuable insights about the training of Lebanese experts by CMS (the Compact Muon Solenoid experiment at CERN), sharing their expertise, and further strengthening the collaboration between CERN/CMS and Lebanon.
Martin Gastal, representing CERN, expressed gratitude towards the generous donors and all stakeholders who played a pivotal role in the success of the HPC4L project in spite of the difficulties that the project faced, its success was the fruit of resilience and hard work furnished by all parties concerned.
Dr. Zaher Dawy, American University of Beirut (AUB) provost representing the HPC4L steering committee leadership, delivered an impactful speech emphasizing the significance of this national achievement in scientific research and technological advancement; emphasizing the importance of this public private partnership. Dr. Haitham Zaraket, scientific director of HPC4L and faculty member at the Lebanese University, provided a comprehensive overview of HPC4L's capabilities and highlighted its unparalleled power compared to other supercomputers in Lebanon. The event also featured addresses by Swiss Ambassador to Lebanon Dr. Marion Weichelt, reiterating Switzerland’s commitment to research and the advancement of science and education; Minister of Telecommunications Johnny Corm, who extended thanks to everyone who helped make the project what it is today; and a keynote speech by President of the Council of Ministers Najib Mikati. Mikati saluted the remarkable efforts by all entities who have made this possible, promising them the government’s full support.
Attendees had the opportunity to explore the fascinating world of HPC4L and its immense computational capacity, enabling students and researchers to achieve groundbreaking results in a fraction of the time previously required. The event fostered networking opportunities and facilitated knowledge sharing among the scientific community in Lebanon, further cementing the country's position as a hub for cutting-edge research. HPC4L's launch event served as a testament to Lebanon's commitment to scientific progress and technological innovation. As HPC4L continues to empower researchers and elevate the scientific landscape, it paves the way for a future defined by unparalleled advancements in various fields of study.
Established in 2018, HPC4L is a consortium of public and private institutions in Lebanon for the purpose of advancing computation research in Lebanon based on the generous HPC donation by CERN/CMS. The public partners are the Ministry of Telecommunications in Lebanon, OGERO, CNRS, and the Lebanese University. The private partners are AUB, LAU, USJ, USEK, and BAU.

Mikati meets UN’s Riza
NNA/May 26/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, is currently meeting at the Grand Serail with United Nations Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Lebanon, Imran Riza.

Gasoline and diesel prices increase while gas price remains stable in Lebanon
NNA/May 26/2023
Gasoline and diesel prices have edged up in Lebanon on Friday while the gas price has remained stable. Consequently, the new prices are as follows:
95 octanes: LBP 1632000
98 octanes: LBP 1674000
Diesel: LBP 1400000
Gas: LBP 848000

خالد أبو ظهر/عرب نيوز /كيف يمكن لعقد الصفقات الإقليمية أن يؤثر على حزب الله ولبنان
How regional deal-making might affect Hezbollah and Lebanon
Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/May 26/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/118533/118533/
Hezbollah on Sunday staged war games at the border with Israel and asserted its readiness to confront Tel Aviv. Tensions have indeed been building up, ranging from rockets fired by Hamas to Israeli strikes in northern Syria, as well as in Gaza. Yet, this time, the message of this military display was not only addressed to Israel, as many analysts claimed, but also to the Lebanese. Despite Hezbollah claiming it was in relation to the annual celebration of the May 25, 2000, withdrawal of Israel from Lebanon, it was as much, if not more so, a reminder of May 7, 2008, when Hezbollah invaded Beirut and threatened all its opponents.
This show of force constitutes the biggest risk to the unity and future of Lebanon. Looking at the images and the journalists covering the military display, I am not even sure the missiles were pointing south; instead they may have been facing to the north: Lebanon. And so, those who advocate a strong, centralized Lebanese state were looking the other way and pretending to care about the issue of bikinis or burkinis on Saida beach. Meanwhile, they condemn federalism as a threat to the unity of the country. So, how does Hezbollah’s violation of central sovereignty play out in their views? Where are the Lebanese Armed Forces? How is such a group allowed to decide unilaterally on war and peace? And if Hezbollah already has de facto autonomous decision-making powers, why not give the same privilege to all?
This display was an insult from Hezbollah to the entire Lebanese state. If proof were needed, this once again showed that Hezbollah’s agenda is not for Lebanon but clearly for the regime in Tehran. The timing of this message was also meant to make a statement that the political future of Lebanon is in its hands. The decision on who should be the next president, the next accused, the next everything, is their prerogative.
This week’s mini military display was also a reminder to everyone that the south is under Hezbollah’s control
This comes as the Syrian regime is pushing for more influence in Lebanon. And incidentally, on this topic, we can notice a contradiction within the French foreign policy. While the French president’s team supports Suleiman Frangieh, a candidate with both the colors of Bashar Assad and Hezbollah, the French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna stated that Assad should be put on trial due to the “hundreds of thousands of deaths” and “chemical arms use” during the country’s civil war. Yet, Hezbollah’s troops collaborated in this massacre, they came to the rescue of Assad on the orders of Tehran, and they are still stationed in Syria with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. So, if Assad needs to be brought to justice, why engage with his allies on the political front in Lebanon? Should they not also be brought to justice for their crimes?
In reality, Hezbollah, just like Assad, has always been given international legitimacy, whether publicly or in the backstages of intelligence deal-making. Even Israel contributed to this recognition, especially after its withdrawal from Lebanon. The Israelis helped Hezbollah build up its international status. But, then again, this is a reflection of what is happening in Lebanon. If you want to talk to the real decision-maker, you will talk to Hezbollah. In the end, it controls and it decides. This week’s mini military display was also a reminder to everyone that the south is under Hezbollah’s control, not Hamas’ and not even the army’s. Nevertheless, the broader recent synchronization between Hezbollah and Hamas is interesting. Hezbollah and hence Iran are working hard to add to the number of cards they hold in any deal that could come in the future. This reminded me of an interview given by a former intelligence officer at the beginning of the 2006 war. His analysis was that the ignition for the devastating attack by the Israelis was Hassan Nasrallah’s speech taking responsibility for the coordinated attacks and kidnappings in both Lebanon and Gaza. It was a red line or a message that Israel would not allow both of these files to be in the hands of Hezbollah and Iran.
Hezbollah and Iran are putting Lebanon within the greater basket of deal-making currently taking place in the region
Yet, since 2006, Israel has in fact contributed to the status Hezbollah holds. This is why Lebanon’s political future is linked to the regional deal-making. It is not only because minority political leadership cannot agree and invites interference. It is mainly because Hezbollah and Iran are putting Lebanon within the greater basket of deal-making currently taking place in the region. To escape this, Lebanon needs a different political system.
Sunday’s display was also a way for Hezbollah to preempt the remaining difficult question: What place can Hezbollah, in its current form, hold within the new Middle East that is beginning to shape up? This is a Middle East in which a series of reconciliations have come from within the region itself, not from international initiatives by Europe or the US. Whether between Turkiye and Egypt, Iran and Saudi Arabia or even Israel and the Abraham Accords signatory states, we are noticing the region taking action. This is a major shift within the region’s dynamics and will, without any doubt, impact the future of Hezbollah and Lebanon. When asked about the future of Lebanon, I have always answered that nothing will change unless either the situation stabilizes in Syria or the Lebanese build a new political system, such as federalism. In the first scenario, it is about stakeholders understanding that investing in Lebanon before having stability in Syria is a zero-sum geopolitical game because the Lebanese do not have agency. The second option is about Lebanon achieving this agency, just like the rest of the region, with a new political system. Hezbollah is pushing for the wrong option. However, this time around, it will not play to its advantage.
*Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of Barbicane, a space-focused investment syndication platform. He is the CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.

Hizbullah and Russia’s Nascent Alliance
Aurora Ortega and Dr Matthew Levitt/Rusi/26 May/2023
Warm greeting: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov welcomes the head of Hezbollah's parliamentary bloc Mohamad Raad for talks in Moscow in March 2021Warm greeting: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov welcomes the head of Hezbollah's parliamentary bloc Mohamad Raad for talks in Moscow in March 2021
While the world’s attention is focused on Ukraine, Russia has been steadily expanding its presence in the Middle East, including through its dealings with the Lebanese terrorist group Hizbullah.
Over the last few years, Russia has quietly extended its reach into Lebanon, seeking to cultivate cultural, economic and military ties in Beirut as part of a strategy to expand Russian influence in the Middle East, while side-lining the US and elevating Moscow’s role as a peacemaker. However, Russia’s encroachment into Lebanon has been overshadowed by the conflict in Ukraine, and its growing alliance with Hizbullah has likewise received scant attention. And yet, a close read of US government designations related to Iranian and Hizbullah illicit financing schemes reveals a distinct trend in Russian cooperation with and support for such activities.
Sanctions Evasion
Russia’s alliance with Hizbullah was born out of the conflict in Syria, where Russian and Hizbullah forces fought side-by-side in alliance with the Assad regime. For years, this alliance appeared strictly limited to military activity in Syria, but in 2018, Hizbullah and Russia began to engage in unprecedented joint sanctions evasion activities. The stark change in activity between Hizbullah and Russia clearly demonstrated that their cooperation had moved beyond a military alliance and now carried an economic component. In November 2018, the US Department of the Treasury exposed a convoluted trade-based oil smuggling sanctions evasion scheme directed by Hizbullah and the Qods Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This scheme allowed the Iranian regime to remit money to Russia’s state-owned Promsyrioimport on behalf of Syria, enabling Russia to evade US sanctions against the Assad regime. Simultaneously, the Syrian Central Bank remitted cash to Hizbullah, HAMAS and the IRGC-Qods Force on behalf of the Iranian regime. Central to this scheme were two key conduits: Hizbullah official Mohamed Qasir and Russia-based Syrian national Mohamed Alchwiki. In a letter to a senior official at the Central Bank of Iran, Qasir (aka Mr Fadi) and Alchwiki confirmed receipt of $63 million as part of a scheme to benefit Hizbullah.
CreditLetter to CBI from Alchwiki and Qasir (Mr Fadi). Source: US Treasury
Since this network’s disruption, the Treasury Department has levied sanctions against numerous entities involved in the ever-evolving Hizbullah-IRGC-Qods Force oil smuggling network led by Qasir and his Iranian counterparts, IRGC-Qods Force official Behnam Shahriyari and former IRGC-Qods Force official Rostam Ghashemi, now deceased. One aspect of this smuggling network that stands out, however, is the Russian government’s official involvement.
In May 2022, the Treasury Department issued designations targeting this same Hizbullah-IRGC-Qods Force oil smuggling network, and noted that these sanctions evasion schemes which were funding both Hizbullah and the IRGC-Qods Force were ‘backed by senior levels of the Russian Federation government and state-run economic organs’. In the action, the Treasury Department revealed that as early as April 2021, former IRGC-Qods Force official Rostam Ghashemi used Russia-based RPP Limited Liability Company ‘to transfer millions of dollars on behalf of the IRGC-Qods Force from Russia’. The person who used to manage the company, a former Moscow-based Afghan diplomat, worked together with ‘senior levels of the Russian government and intelligence apparatus’ to raise funds for the IRGC-Qods Force. The Russian government, and Russian state-owned company Rosneft, also worked with other elements of this IRGC-Qods Force smuggling network, such as UAE-based Zamanoil DMCC, ‘to ship large quantities of Iranian oil to companies in Europe on behalf of the IRGC-Qods Force’. Another part of this network was run by Hizbullah officials Mohamed Qasir and Muhammad Qasim al-Bazzal, who used a Lebanon-based company to facilitate oil deals for the IRGC-Qods Force and Hizbullah.
The Treasury Department targeted more entities involved in oil sale sanctions evasion to benefit the IRGC-Qods Force in December 2022, some of which engaged in supply-chain agreements and contracts with Russia-based RPP LCC, which had been designated just months prior, in May.
Additionally, in November 2022, the Treasury Department issued designations targeting yet another ‘oil shipping network supporting IRGC-QF and Hizballah’. While the Treasury Department explicitly linked this action to the earlier one in May, which targeted schemes backed by the Russian government, it did not specify whether the Russian government also held a role in the schemes targeted in November. However, analysis of these targets reveals that at least some of the vessels sanctioned as part of the scheme benefitting Hizbullah and the IRGC-Qods Force, such as the Zephyr I and Julia A, have in fact also been used to smuggle Russian oil. This implies that the Russian government and Hizbullah along with the IRGC-Qods Force have leveraged some of the same oil smuggling networks to evade sanctions; however, it is not clear whether Russia coordinated its use of these third-party oil smuggling networks with Hizbullah and the IRGC-Qods Force. Nonetheless, these sanctions evasion techniques not only undermine US and international efforts to impose costs on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, but also yield a monetary benefit for the two terrorist groups.
Soft Power Influence
The enhanced level of collaboration between Russia and Hizbullah is not limited to sanctions evasion. In March 2021, Hizbullah sent a delegation to Moscow, on its second-ever ‘diplomatic’ visit to the country. Unlike its first visit a decade prior, which was enveloped in secrecy with no media exposure, this visit was well publicised. During their three days in Moscow, Hizbullah representatives met with various Russian officials, including Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, representatives from the State Duma and the Council of the Federation, as well as Iranian Ambassador to Russia Kazem Jalali. Most notably, though, the delegation had a lengthy meeting with Russia’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mikhail Bogdanov, who also serves as Vladimir Putin’s Special Representative to the Middle East. A number of topics were discussed during these meetings, including collaboration on various ‘projects’. Just three months after this visit to Moscow, Hizbullah received Russian Ambassador to Lebanon Alexander Rudakov in Beirut to further discuss collaboration on joint projects.
While it remains unclear what projects Russia and Hizbullah are working on together, the US Treasury’s designation of the Lebanon-based economist Hassan Moukalled in January 2023 provides insight into some possibilities. In its press release, the Treasury describes Moukalled as a financial advisor to Hizbullah who carries out business deals on behalf of the group and represents Hizbullah in negotiations with potential investors, partners and foreign government officials. The Treasury also clearly highlights Moukalled’s engagement with Russia on behalf of Hizbullah, noting that he has coordinated a wide range of projects with Hizbullah official Mohamed Qasir, including business deals involving Russia.
Russia's alliance with Hizbullah provides it with access and powerful top-cover to expand its overall footprint in Lebanon, while benefitting the terrorist group as well
Since at least 2021, Moukalled has closely engaged with Russian officials, including accompanying Russian delegations in their meetings in Beirut, as well as meeting on several occasions with Bogdanov. Most notably, Moukalled, together with Lebanese and Russian officials, has taken part in negotiations to have the Russian company Hydro Engineering and Construction rebuild the Zahrani refinery in the Hizbullah-controlled region of southern Lebanon – a project estimated to be worth $1.5 billion. While Hydro Engineering and Construction is – according to Russian tax records – fully owned by Russian businessman Andrei Metzger, it is backed by the Russian government. Indeed, in June 2021, Metzger was part of a delegation visiting Lebanon on behalf of the Russian government. Interestingly, during a meeting in Beirut the same month between Hizbullah and the Russian Ambassador to Lebanon, a project involving Hydro Engineering and Construction was also discussed. According to Russian tax records, Hydro Engineering and Construction was established in February 2021 – only one month before the Hizbullah delegation travelled to Moscow to initiate discussions about collaboration on investment projects. According to Lebanese press reports, the June 2021 trip was not the Russian delegation’s first visit to Beirut. On a previous trip, this same delegation reportedly held discussions with the Lebanese Central Bank about Russia’s interest in purchasing a bank in Lebanon to facilitate financial transfers.
While Hizbullah’s involvement in the $1.5 billion refinery project remains unclear, last year Hizbullah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah made a public comment that demonstrated his interest in the project. In a statement, Nasrallah denounced the US for stalling the Zahrani refinery project, going as far as to say, ‘if Hezbollah had dominated the decisions of the Lebanese state, the Russian offer would have been accepted a year and a half ago’.
Weapons Procurement
In addition to coordinating business deals involving Russia, the Treasury revealed that Moukalled has also worked with Hizbullah official Mohamed Qasir on efforts to assist Hizbullah in obtaining weaponry for its own use. Indeed, Qasir not only has a prominent role in procuring finances for Hizbullah, but he is also the head of the Hizbullah unit ‘responsible for facilitating the transfer of weapons, technology and other support from Syria to Lebanon’. Formerly identified as Unit 108, public reports over the past year have revealed that the weapons unit headed by Qasir is now denoted as Hizbullah Unit 4400.
Qasir is uniquely qualified to head a unit as sensitive and important as Unit 4400. One of his brothers, Hassan, is reportedly the son-in-law of Secretary General Nasrallah. Another brother, Ahmed Qasir, was the Hizbullah suicide bomber who carried out the November 1982 attack on an Israeli military headquarters in Tyre. Recognised as Hizbullah’s first martyr, Nasrallah referred to Ahmed as the ‘prince of martyrs’ at a Martyrs Foundation event marking the anniversary of the attack. With his family legacy, Mohamed Qasir rose high and fast within Hizbullah, and remains a trusted confidant of Nasrallah. In May 2018, the US Treasury designated Qasir as ‘a critical conduit’ for IRGC-Qods Force payouts to Hizbullah.
Meanwhile, Hassan Moukalled’s meetings with Russian officials have not ceased despite his January 2023 designation. For example, in late March 2023, Moukalled travelled to Russia and met not only with Deputy Foreign Minister and Putin’s Special Representative to the Middle East Mikhail Bogdanov, but also with Deputy Minister of Defense Alexander Fomin. According to Moukalled’s own statement via Twitter, both meetings involved discussions about strengthening relations between Lebanon and Russia, particularly with regard to Russian economic and investment projects. They also included conversations on establishing direct flights between the two countries.
Conclusion
While there are still many unknowns about the extent of Hizbullah and Russia’s collaboration or how much they each benefit, it’s undoubtedly clear that their relationship has grown over time and is now multifaceted, mutually beneficial, and includes what appears to be an especially lucrative economic component. Russia’s activities in Lebanon are not all related to Hizbullah, to be sure. But its alliance with Hizbullah provides Russia with access and powerful top-cover to expand its overall footprint in Lebanon, while benefitting the terrorist group as well.
Strategic competition poses a different kind of threat to terrorism, but in the case of Russia and Hizbullah there is a clear overlap – the two are mutually reinforcing, not mutually exclusive. Competition, particularly when it involves expanding influence via soft power, can be easy to underestimate or overlook. In the case of Lebanon, not only is Russia poised to benefit, but so is a significant terrorist group. In terms of Russia’s current threat, the world is focused on the conflict in Ukraine. While this is indeed the greater and more immediate threat, it is also diverting attention away from Russia’s encroachment in the Middle East and its strengthening of a significant terrorist organisation.
In this era of strategic competition, the US faces a multipolar threat – with various adversaries in various locations worldwide, who are using various domains and tradecraft – and no one government or private sector entity has full visibility. This is why the US government must remain agile and leverage its partnerships to maintain insight into the changing threat landscape, so that the US and its allies do not lose out in competition in one region of the world while focused on conflict in another.
The views expressed in this Commentary are the authors’, and do not represent those of RUSI or any other institution.
Have an idea for a Commentary you’d like to write for us? Send a short pitch to commentaries@rusi.org and we’ll get back to you if it fits into our research interests. Full guidelines for contributors can be found here.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 26-27/2023
Iran unveils latest ballistic missile version amid tensions over nuclear program
Associated Press/May 26/2023
Iran has unveiled what it called the latest iteration of its liquid-fueled Khorramshahr ballistic missile amid wider tensions with the West over its nuclear program. Authorities showed off the Khorramshahr-4 to journalists at an event in Tehran, with the missile on a truck-mounted launcher. Defense Minister Gen. Mohammad Reza Ashtiani said the missile could be prepared for launch in a short period. "One of the prominent characteristics of this missile is its ability to evade radar detection and penetrate enemy air defense systems, thanks to its low radar signature," the general told journalists. "This missile has the capability to utilize various warheads for different missions." Iranian officials described the missile as having a 2,000-kilometer (1,240-mile) range with a 1,500-kilogram (3,300-pound) warhead. They also released undated video footage purportedly showing a successful launch of the missile. The Khorramshahr has the heaviest payload of Iran's ballistic missile fleet, which analysts say may be designed to keep the weapon under a 2,000-kilometer range limit imposed by the country's supreme leader. That puts most of the Mideast in range, but falls short of Western Europe. The Khorramshahr-4 is named after an Iranian city that was the scene of heavy fighting during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. Iraq seized the city in the oil-rich southwestern province of Khuzestan at the start of the war, but Iran retook it over a year later. During the event, loudspeakers blared the "Symphony of the Epic of Khorramshahr," an orchestral composition marking Iranian soldiers ending the Iraqi siege of the city during the war. Tehran created its ballistic missile program after suffering through Iraqi Scud missile attacks in the conflict — and as a hedge against its Western-armed neighbors as embargoes have kept it from accessing modern attack aircraft. The missile also is called Kheibar, after a Jewish fortress conquered by the Muslims in the 7th century — in what is now Saudi Arabia.
Regional tensions likely played a role in Iran's missile display Thursday. A miniature example of Jerusalem's golden Dome of the Rock on the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, a holy site in both Islam and Judaism that Jews call the Temple Mount, stood next to the mobile launcher. Iran views Israel as its archenemy and arming anti-Israeli militant groups in the Palestinian territories and surrounding countries. Tensions between the two nations are high, particularly as Iran enriches uranium closer than ever to weapons-grade levels. The Khorramshahr would be able to reach Israel. Iran made a point, however, to keep the truck that transports the missile covered up during the event. Its missile program has been targeted for sabotage in the past — and Iran has previously used foreign-sourced vehicles to tow such massive missile systems. It remains unclear, however, why the missile has been called Khorramshahr-4 as only two other variants of the missile are publicly known. It is modeled after North Korea's Musudan ballistic missile, which is believed to have up to a 4,000-kilometer (2,485-mile) range with a 500-kilogram (1,100 pound) payload. U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Washington was aware of the missile report and reiterated that "Iran's development and proliferation of ballistic missiles poses a serious threat to regional and international security."

Israeli settler kills Palestinian who attempted stabbing -army
JERUSALEM (Reuters) /Fri, May 26, 2023
The Israeli military said an armed Israeli settler shot dead a Palestinian man who it said tried to carry out a stabbing attack in a settlement in the occupied West Bank on Friday.
The military said an unidentified man infiltrated the gated area in the southern West Bank near the city of Hebron and tried to stab a resident before being "neutralised". There were no Israeli casualties and soldiers were scanning the area, it said. The Palestinian health ministry said it was informed by the unit that coordinates civilian affairs with Israel of a Palestinian man who was shot dead "by the occupation" south of Hebron. Local media said the incident occurred as people in the settlement of Teneh Omarim were gathering for prayers for the Jewish Shavuot festival. The Israeli military alerted settlers there to remain indoors and lock their doors shortly before 10 a.m. (0700 GMT) in a message sent via its app. A video obtained by Reuters showed a man slipping underneath a closed metal gate. In another video, soldiers were seen sealing a synagogue with red tape. Israeli-Palestinian violence has surged for over a year, with frequent Israeli military raids and settler violence in the West Bank amid a spate of Palestinian attacks on Israelis. Since January, more than 140 Palestinians and at least 19 Israelis and foreigners have been killed. Israel occupied the West Bank, which Palestinians want as the core of an independent state, in the 1967 Middle East war. U.S.-sponsored statehood talks have been frozen since 2014 while Israel has maintained military rule over millions of Palestinians and continued to expand Jewish settlements.

Palestinian man killed after alleged stabbing attempt in West Bank settlement
Associated Press/May 26/2023
A Palestinian man was shot and killed on Friday after infiltrating a Jewish settlement in the occupied West Bank, the Israeli army said. In a statement, the military said the man tried to stab a resident in the Tene Omarim settlement and was shot by an armed civilian. It said the infiltration had set off an alarm and soldiers were scanning the area. The Palestinian Health ministry confirmed the death but gave no further details. The settlement is located near Hebron, a flashpoint city in the southern West Bank that is a frequent site of friction between Palestinian residents and Jewish settlers. The incident occurred as Jews were celebrating Shavuot, a festival marking the day that Jews believe the Torah was given to Moses on Mount Sinai in Egypt. It was the latest in more than a year-long spate of violence in the West Bank. During that time, Israel has expanded near-nightly military raids throughout the area in response to an increase in Palestinian attacks. At least 113 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank and east Jerusalem this year, with nearly half of them members of armed militant groups, according to an Associated Press tally. But stone-throwing youths and people uninvolved in violence have also been killed. The Israeli army said the number of Palestinian militants killed is much higher. Meanwhile, Palestinian attacks on Israeli targets in those areas have killed 20 people. Israel captured the West Bank and east Jerusalem, along with the Gaza Strip, in the 1967 Mideast war. Palestinians seek these territories for a future state.
Some 700,000 Israelis now live in settlements in the West Bank and east Jerusalem. Most of the international community considers these settlements illegal or obstacles to peace.

Belgium, Iran conduct prisoner swap in Oman, freeing aid worker and diplomat convicted in bomb plot
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP)/Fri, May 26, 2023
Belgium and Iran conducted a prisoner exchange Friday in Oman, with officials saying Tehran released a Belgian aid worker in exchange for an Iranian diplomat convicted of attempting to bomb a meeting of exiles in France. The initial announcement by Oman's Foreign Ministry did not identify the prisoners being swapped. However, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said in a statement that the aid worker, Olivier Vandecasteele, had been freed. Iranian state television later said, in an on-screen graphic, that the diplomat would be freed. “Informed sources report the release of Assadollah Assadi, an Iranian diplomat detained in Belgium,” Iranian state TV said. “Further details will be announced.” Oman's foreign ministry said that “those released were transferred from Tehran and Brussels to Muscat today, Friday, in preparation for their return to their countries.” It added that "the sultanate of Oman appreciated the high positive spirit that prevailed in the talks in Muscat between the Iranian and Belgian sides, and their keenness to settle this humanitarian issue.”De Croo said Vandecasteele was transferred to Oman on Thursday night. He was received by a team of Belgian diplomats and military officials, then was assessed by doctors. “Olivier spent 455 days in prison in Tehran. In unbearable conditions. Innocent,” De Croo wrote. “Olivier Vandecasteele’s return to Belgium is a relief. A relief for his family, friends and colleagues.”Oman has long served as an interlocutor for the West with Iran. In January, Iran sentenced Vandecasteele to a lengthy prison term and 74 lashes after convicting him of espionage in a closed-door trial. He also was fined $1 million. In 2021, Belgium convicted an Iranian diplomat, Assadollah Assadi, of masterminding a thwarted bomb attack against an exiled Iranian opposition group in France and sentenced to 20 years in prison. Iran has detained a number of foreigners and dual nationals over the years, accusing them of espionage or other state security offenses and sentencing them following secretive trials in which rights groups say they have been denied due process. Critics have repeatedly accused Iran of using such prisoners as bargaining chips with the West. Iran, facing Western sanctions over its rapidly advancing nuclear program, has faced protests in recent months and economic strain. Oman's Sultan Haitham bin Tariq was already scheduled to visit Tehran this weekend before the announced prisoner swap.

Russia says Ukraine attacks border regions; Moscow's forces strike Dnipro clinic
Associated Press/May 26/2023
Russia's southern Belgorod region bordering Ukraine came under attack from Ukrainian artillery fire, mortar shells and drones Friday, authorities said, hours after two drones struck a Russian city in a region next to the annexed Crimea Peninsula. The Kremlin's forces, meanwhile, struck a clinic in Dnipro, in central Ukraine, killing two people and wounding another 23, including two children, Ukrainian officials said. Also, a Russian S-300 missile hit a dam in the Karlivka district of Ukraine's eastern Donetsk province, placing nearby settlements under threat of severe flooding.
The Belgorod town of Graivoron, about seven kilometers (more than four miles) from the Ukrainian border, was under fire for several hours, with four houses, a store, a car, a gas pipeline and a power line damaged, Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov reported. Closer to the border, a recreation center, a shop and an uninhabited house sustained damage in the village of Glotovo. One woman was wounded when the nearby village of Novaya Tavolzhanka was shelled, according to Gladkov. Earlier this week, the Belgorod region was the target of one of the most serious cross-border attacks from Ukraine since the war began 15 months ago. Details of the raid were murky. Russia blamed the Ukrainian armed forces, but two Russian groups said they were involved, with the aim of bringing down Russian President Vladimir Putin. Officials in Russia's southern city of Krasnodar, in the region of the same name bordering Crimea, said that two drones struck there. Witnesses told local media they heard something like the sound of a moped and then two explosions. The blasts smashed a hole in the roof of a building and blew out windows in an apartment building. "We just went to bed and then there was such a strong terrible boom," resident Tatiana Safonova said. "We ran outside, there were people running, but nothing else was going on." She said "there was a specific sound beforehand, like a growling noisy moped driving by." "There is damage to buildings, but essential infrastructure was not damaged. And most importantly, there were no casualties," Krasnodar regional Gov. Veniamin Kondratyev wrote on Telegram. Krasnodar Mayor Yevgeny Naumov said a residential building and an office building were damaged, but there were no casualties. Drone attacks against Russian regions on the border with Ukraine have been a regular occurrence since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February last year, with attacks stepping up last month. Earlier this month, an oil refinery in Krasnodar was attacked by drones on two consecutive days. In another apparent incident of Kyiv's forces harassing Russia, Ukraine's defense ministry on Thursday published footage that appeared to show an unmanned drone boat attacking Russia's Ivan Khurs reconnaissance ship in the Black Sea. The video didn't show the drone hitting the ship. The video followed reports by Russia's Ministry of Defense on Wednesday that Ukraine had launched an "unsuccessful" attack on the Ivan Khurs using three unmanned speedboats, with all three boats attacked and destroyed prior to reaching the ship. Moscow released footage allegedly showing the destruction of one of the uncrewed boats. At least two civilians were killed and three others wounded in Russian attacks on Ukraine over the previous 24 hours, the Ukrainian president's office reported Friday.

Russia's Medvedev Says West Underestimates Risks of Nuclear Escalation
Asharq Al Awsat/May 26/2023
A senior ally of President Vladimir Putin said on Friday the conflict in Ukraine could last for decades and that negotiations with Ukraine were impossible as long as Ukraine's Western-backed President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was in power. Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine has triggered the deadliest European conflict since World War Two and the biggest confrontation between Moscow and the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, Reuters said. Hundreds of thousands of people have died and many more have been seriously injured in the conflict, whose roots date to 2014 after a pro-Russian president was toppled in Ukraine's Maidan popular uprising, Russia annexed the Crimea peninsula and Russian-backed separatists seized swathes of eastern Ukraine. "This conflict will last for a very long time. For decades, probably. This is a new reality," Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev was quoted as saying by Russian news agencies. He said Russia could not trust any truce with the current rulers of Kyiv as the conflict would simply erupt again and so the very nature of the current government of Ukraine would have to be destroyed. Negotiations, he said, with Zelenskiy were impossible. "Everything always ends in negotiations, and this is inevitable, but as long as these people are in power, the situation for Russia will not change in terms of negotiations."Medvedev, who cast himself as a liberal moderniser when he was president from 2008-2012, now presents himself as a fiercely anti-Western Kremlin hawk. Diplomats say his views give an indication of thinking at the top levels of the Kremlin elite.
NUCLEAR WAR
Medvedev also warned that the West was seriously underestimating the risk of a nuclear war over Ukraine, cautioning that Russia would launch a pre-emptive strike if Ukraine gets nuclear weapons. Russia, which has the world's largest nuclear arsenal, has repeatedly accused the West of waging a proxy war with Russia over Ukraine that could mushroom into a much bigger conflict. "There are irreversible laws of war. If it comes to nuclear weapons, there will have to be a pre-emptive strike," Medvedev said. Allowing Ukraine nuclear weapons - a step no Western state has publicly proposed - would mean "a missile with a nuclear charge coming to them", Medvedev was quoted as saying. "The Anglo-Saxons do not fully realize this and believe that it will not come to this. It will under certain conditions." The West says it wants to help Ukraine win its conflict with Russia, and Western powers have supplied large amounts of modern arms and ammunition to Kyiv. But US President Joe Biden has cautioned that a direct confrontation between the US-backed NATO alliance and Russia would result in World War Three. Russia says Washington would never allow it to arm a country bordering the United States, and the Kremlin says the West is already essentially fighting an undeclared war with Russia. When Ukraine gained independence after the 1991 break-up of the Soviet Union, it hosted thousands of nuclear weapons. It handed these to Russia under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in return for guarantees of its security and sovereignty from Russia, the United States and Britain.

As Russia Makes Another Nuclear Threat In The Ukraine War, Should We Be Worried?
Kate Nicholson/HuffPost/May 26, 2023
Why are concerns about use of nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war on the rise again?
Concerns around Russia’s nuclear threats are rising yet again following Moscow’s latest moves in the Ukraine war – but should we be worried? Russia has tried to use the West’s fear of nuclear war as a bargaining chip over the last 15 months, suggesting that the more support Ukraine receives from its allies, the more likely Moscow is to press the nuclear button. It also continues to occupy the Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia, where Europe’s largest nuclear power plant is based, prompting fears in the UN of a nuclear disaster. Now, as Russia prepares to Ukraine’s highly-anticipated counteroffensive, it appears to be shifting its tactical nuclear weapons closer to the West.
Here’s what we know so far.
Russia has moved tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus
According to Russian state news agency TASS, Belarus’s president Alexander Lukashenko has confirmed the transfer of tactical nuclear weapons from Russia to Belarus has begun. These are lower-yield weapons meant for the battlefield rather than widespread attacks on civilisations. Russian president Vladimir Putin first announced this move back in March, saying Moscow would use the weapons if needed to defend its “territorial integrity”. Russian reports suggest the transfer will be complete in just over a month, although it’s unclear how many nuclear weapons the country has. The seemingly dramatic move has been painted as an act of self-defence by the Kremlin. Defence minister Sergei Shoigu claimed Moscow was just responding “extremely sharp escalation of threats on the western borders of Russia and Belarus”.
Putin ally issues warning about ‘preemptive strike’
Russian news agencies also quoted the Security Council deputy chair, former president Dmitry Medvedev, as saying that Russia would not hesitate to launch a preemptive strike on the West if it gives Ukraine nuclear weapons. Medvedev said: “There are irreversible laws of war. If it comes to nuclear weapons, there will have to be a preemptive strike.” It comes after the UK agreed to send long-range Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine earlier this month, which would allow the country to hit targets within Russia’s borders. However, the West has not suggested it has any plans to send nuclear weapons to Ukraine any time soon, and has been very clear that it only wants to help the country defend itself.
How have countries reacted?
NATO said that it did not plan to change its own nuclear posture based on this action – although it warned that this rhetoric was still “dangerous and irresponsible”. Japan’s chief cabinet secretary Hirokazu Matsuno also condemned Russia’s decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, saying: “As the only country to have suffered atomic bombings during wartime, Japan never accepts Russia’s nuclear menace, let alone its use.” The US used atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, in an effort to force Japan to surrender on the eastern front of World War 2. Japan just placed additional sanctions on Moscow after the G7 summit last week saw countries promise to step up measures to punish Russia for the invasion of Ukraine.
Should we be worried?
The Institute for the Study of War think tank suggests that these weapons have not yet been transferred – and, if it does happen, this transfer is actually part of a “longstanding effort to cement Russia’s de facto military control over Belarus”.
Claiming that this is more about regional politics, the think tank said: “The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus requires both significant military infrastructure and Russian command and control over elements of the Belarusian Armed Forces. “The Kremlin likely intends to use these requirements to further subordinate the Belarusian security sphere under Russia.” It added that “their possible deployment is highly unlikely to presage any Russian escalation”. The experts pointed out that Russia already had nuclear weapons which could hit any target which these tactical weapons being moved to Belarus could also hit – so it doesn’t give Moscow any particularly strong advantage on that front. The think tank also suggested: “Putin is extraordinarily unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine or elsewhere.” As the analysts pointed out back in September, Moscow’s “red lines for nuclear weapon use have already been crossed in this war several times over without any Russian nuclear escalation”.

Ukraine shoots down 10 missiles in Russian attacks, oil depot hit
Russian missile strike in Kyiv
KYIV (Reuters)/Fri, May 26, 2023
-Ukraine shot down 10 missiles and over 20 drones launched by Russia in overnight attacks on the capital Kyiv, the city of Dnipro and eastern regions, Ukrainian officials said on Friday. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's office said in a statement that a fire had broken out on the outskirts of the northeastern city of Kharkiv after an oil depot was hit twice, and that equipment for pumping oil products had been damaged. Russia has intensified missile and drone attacks on Ukraine this month, mainly attacking logistics and infrastructure facilities before an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive. The Ukrainian air force said it had shot down 10 missiles fired from the Caspian Sea, 23 Iranian-made Shahed drones and two reconnaissance drones during the overnight attacks. It said a total of 17 missiles and 31 drones had been launched in the attacks, which started at around 10:00 p.m. (1900 GMT) on Thursday and continued until 5:00 a.m. on Friday. Several drones and several missiles hit targets in the Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, officials said. There was no immediate word of any deaths. "It was a very difficult night. It was loud - the enemy launched a mass attack on the region with missiles and drones," Serhiy Lysak, the Dnipropetrovsk regional governor, said on the Telegram messaging app. "Dnipro has suffered." Lysak said several houses, cars, and private companies, including a transport company and a gas station, had been damaged. A worker at the gas station was hurt. Officials in Kyiv said the roof of a shopping mall, a private house and several cars had been damaged. The governor of the Kharkiv region also reported damage to several private houses and industrial facilities. Russia, which began its full-scale invasion 15 months ago, has launched hundreds of missile attacks since last October, seeking to destroy critical infrastructure and power facilities. It has shifted the focus of its missile strikes to try to disrupt preparation for a Ukrainian counterattack, military officials have said.

Saudi, U.S report better adherence to Sudan ceasefire by warring forces after days of fighting
CAIRO (AP)/Fri, May 26, 2023
Saudi Arabia and the U.S. said Friday the warring sides in Sudan's conflict are adhering better to a week-long ceasefire following days of sporadic fighting. The truce, brokered by Riyadh and Washington, went into effect Monday, but fighting continued in Khartoum and the western Darfur region. Particularly intense clashes flared up on Wednesday, the two countries said in a joint statement. The conflict in Sudan erupted in mid-April after months of escalating tensions between the military, led by Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces, a powerful paramilitary commanded by Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. The conflict has killed at least 863 civilians, including at least 190 children, according to the most recent numbers from the Sudanese Doctors’ Syndicate. The week-long ceasefire is the seventh attempt at a truce after the others were violated. A new cross-party committee tasked with monitoring potential violations observed Wednesday the “use of artillery and military aircraft and drones, credible reports of airstrikes, sustained fighting" in Khartoum and Darfur. Amid the reported calm on Thursday, humanitarian missions were able on to deliver "urgently needed medical supplies to several locations in Sudan,” the joint statement said. Efforts were also underway to restore telecommunications services in the capital, Khartoum, and other areas of the country, it said. On Tuesday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned both parties of possible sanctions if the latest cease-fire was not adhered to.
The U.N. says More than a million Sudanese have been internally displaced, while some 300,000 have fled to neighbouring countries. The conflict has pushed the East African country to the brink of collapse, with urban areas of Khartoum and its sister city Omdurman disintegrating into battlegrounds.
UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said late Thursday that the World Food Program has reached more than half a million people in nine states with food and nutrition support since restarting distributions about three weeks ago.
Riyadh and Washington called on the military and the RSF to continue to respect the cease-fire.

US says refugees can't return now, won't interfere in presidential file
Naharnet/May 26/2023
The Syrian refugees cannot return to their country from Lebanon due to the inappropriate circumstances and the absence of a political solution, U.S. State Department Arabic Spokesperson Sam Werberg said. The return decision must be in the hands of the refugees, Werberg added, in remarks to Lebanon’s al-Jadeed television. Separately, Werberg said that Washington does not have any communication with Hezbollah and that the Iran-backed party is not playing an important role in the presidential election file. He added that the United States will not interfere in the presidential vote and that it is up to Lebanon to take the decision. Asked about the arrest warrant issued for Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh, Werberg said the decision belongs to the French government.

Kurdistan regional government says it opposes changes in draft Iraq federal budget
Reuters/May 26/2023
Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan regional government said on Friday it opposed changes in the draft Iraqi federal budget that infringe on the rights of the Kurdish people. The Kurdistan Regional Government's (KRG) opposition poses a challenge to the prime minister of Iraq's federal government, Mohammed al-Sudani, in adopting a three-year budget, a flagship policy of his government that came to power late last year backed by a coalition of Shi'ite, Sunni and Kurdish parties. KRG said it would not abide by any other decision outside the agreement signed with Sudani's government, which appeared to be a reference to a deal between the two governments setting a framework for the resumption of oil flows from the northern Iraqi region via Turkey. Before Sudani formed his government, he struck a deal with the powerful Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP), which dominates the administration in Erbil, capital of the semi-autonomous region in northern Iraq. The agreement included ending a long-running dispute over budget transfers to Erbil and oil revenue sharing between the national government and Kurdistan, according to three Kurdish officials. Under the Iraqi constitution, the Kurdish region is entitled to a portion of the national budget. But the arrangement collapsed in 2014 when the Kurds began selling crude independently from Kurdistan. In 2017, Iraqi forces retook disputed territories including the oil city of Kirkuk. Baghdad resumed some budget payments, but they have been sporadic. KRG called the changes in the draft budget, introduced by members of the parliament's finance committee, unconstitutional and "inconsistent with the agreement signed between the regional government and the federal government". In March, Sudani's cabinet approved the 2023 draft budget of 197.828 trillion Iraqi dinars ($135.6 billion) that would be referred to parliament for approval.

Oil broadly steady amid OPEC+ supply cut uncertainty, demand worries
Reuters/May 26/2023
Oil prices were stable on Friday, as the market weighed conflicting messages on supply from Russia and Saudi Arabia ahead of the next OPEC+ policy meeting, a stronger U.S. dollar and worries of weaker-than-expected demand growth. Brent crude was up 40 cents at $76.66 a barrel at 0959 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 54 cents to $72.37 a barrel. Benchmarks settled more than $2 per barrel lower on Thursday, after Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak played down the prospect of further OPEC+ production cuts at its meeting in Vienna on June 4.
Both prices were still poised to post a second week of gains of slightly less than 1%. A deal to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, which appears in sight, would likely boost oil prices. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that energy prices were approaching "economically justified" levels, also indicating there could be no immediate change to the group's production policy. Their remarks contrasted with comments this week from Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the de-facto leader of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), warning short sellers to "watch out".--

France has given up on defending Europe
Anne-Elisabeth Moutet/The Telegraph/May 26, 2023
On paper, it looked like the wake-up call of the Ukraine-Russia war had finally been heard at the Élysée Palace. France’s new Loi de Programmation Militaire (the 2024-2030 military budget), which the National Assembly will be debating (and amending) until the end of next week, was, we were told, “unprecedented”. It provides for €413 billion for the next six years, a nominal 40 per cent rise in France’s defence budget.
The law looks like it finally provides for long hoped-for new toys. A new nuclear-powered aircraft carrier will replace the Charles de Gaulle, a 30-year-old white elephant plagued by technical troubles practically from inception. Five billion euros should go to drones. Ditto more military satellites; ditto cyber warfare. But look at delivery dates (2035 at the earliest for the new carrier); look at what’s not there, or where there is less of it compared with the previous 2019 Loi (137 Rafale fighter jets when the old goal was 185; 35 Airbus A400M heavy transport planes instead of 50; only 160 Leclerc tanks due for an upgrade instead of a previous 200 goal – those very tanks belonging to the same category as the German Leopards that France stopped producing a decade ago). On both sides of the aisle, Républicain and Socialist MPs alike have protested against the actual choices the Bill makes.
Fewer tanks, fewer planes, it’s as if Emmanuel Macron – whom the Constitution of the Fifth Republic designates as Le Chef des Armées – has learnt no military lessons from the new face of war in Europe. France has always viewed itself as a world power, with territories on all six continents. Now Le Président’s grand design is boosting defence spending on space, cyber and oceans, while living for several years with less not more of the hardware and ordnance currently deciding the fate of Europe’s Eastern flank. Will these choices turn out to be France’s new Maginot Line? The great historian and adviser to governments from Warsaw to Washington, Edward Luttwak – whom I was lucky enough to hear give a stellar presentation at the Danube Institute think tank in Budapest – made again and again the point that war in the 21st century has turned out to be about artillery, boots on the ground, tanks and air cover. And it will be for a long, long time to come.
Some experts disagree. Fascinatingly, however, France, torn between an ideal vision of its world role and the sharp wall of reality, seems to be preparing for yesterday’s war. There is more than simple delusion in this: in a country where too many see themselves as subtle Talleyrands, too few as Maréchal Fochs (“My centre line has given ground, my right retreats, the situation is excellent, I attack!”), there is always the inclination to project a diplomatic future in which conciliation will ultimately have to be reached (hence the recurrent “we must not humiliate Russia” line from some of France’s political and diplomatic elite).
The French also arguably put too much store by their nuclear deterrent. It is not only the weapon of a Great Power, establishing you in the exclusive club of nations that have to be paid attention to; it has also been, since the 1960s, a vote-getter among larger swathes of the electorate than you’d expect, from sections of the hard-Left to the sovereignist chunk of every conservative party from the Républicains to the Le Pen and Zemmour Right. And even there, Macron inflicted an own goal to that beloved token of grandeur late last year when, during one of the prime-time television interviews he likes giving to suitably respectful presenters, he answered a question on a possible tactical nuclear strike on Ukraine by rejecting the idea that France would retaliate with her nuclear capacity. To alarmed top Nato officials, Élysée advisers suggested that France would use nukes “only in defence of vital French interests”, “depending on context”, and “only if the President decided it”. The whole incident has officially blown over; but if you wondered why a France-led “European Strategic Autonomy” project is less than popular among our allies, look no further. Learning now that France – seemingly unconcerned with their priorities and immediate threats – has in effect made it impossible to have enough tanks and planes to lend to her Nato allies will not help change that view. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month, then enjoy 1 year for just $9 with our US-exclusive offer.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 26-27/2023
Question: “Is eternal security a “license” to sin?”
GotQuestions.org/May 26/2023
Answer: The most frequent objection to the doctrine of eternal security (the belief that salvation cannot be lost) is that it supposedly allows people to live any way that they want and still be saved. While this may be “technically” true, it is not true in reality. A person who has truly been redeemed by Jesus Christ will not live a life characterized by continuous, willful sin. We must draw a distinction between how a Christian should live and what a person must do in order to receive salvation.
The Bible is clear that salvation is by grace alone, through faith alone, in Jesus Christ alone (John 3:16; Ephesians 2:8-9; John 14:6). The moment a person truly believes in Jesus Christ, he or she is saved and secure in that salvation. It is unbiblical to say that salvation is received by faith, but then has to be maintained by works. The apostle Paul addresses this issue in Galatians 3:3 when he asks, “Are you so foolish? After beginning with the Spirit, are you now trying to attain your goal by human effort?” If we are saved by faith, our salvation is also maintained and secured by faith. We cannot earn our own salvation. Therefore, neither can we earn the maintenance of our salvation. It is God who maintains our salvation (Jude 24). It is God’s hand that holds us firmly in His grasp (John 10:28-29). It is God’s love that nothing can separate us from (Romans 8:38-39).
Any denial of eternal security is, in its essence, a belief that we must maintain our own salvation by our own good works and efforts. This is completely antithetical to salvation by grace. We are saved because of Christ’s merits, not our own (Romans 4:3-8). To claim that we must obey God’s Word or live a godly life to maintain our salvation is saying that Jesus’ death was not sufficient to pay the penalty for our sins. Jesus’ death was absolutely sufficient to pay for all of our sins—past, present, and future, pre-salvation and post-salvation (Romans 5:8; 1 Corinthians 15:3; 2 Corinthians 5:21).
Does this mean that a Christian can live any way he wants to and still be saved? This is essentially a hypothetical question, because the Bible makes it clear that a true Christian will not live “any way he wants to.” Christians are new creations (2 Corinthians 5:17). Christians demonstrate the fruit of the Spirit (Galatians 5:22-23), not the acts of the flesh (Galatians 5:19-21). First John 3:6-9 clearly states that a true Christian will not live in continual sin. In response to the accusation that grace promotes sin, the apostle Paul declared, “What shall we say, then? Shall we go on sinning so that grace may increase? By no means! We died to sin; how can we live in it any longer?” (Romans 6:1-2).
Eternal security is not a license to sin. Rather, it is the security of knowing that God’s love is guaranteed for those who trust in Christ. Knowing and understanding God’s tremendous gift of salvation accomplishes the opposite of giving a license to sin. How could anyone, knowing the price Jesus Christ paid for us, go on to live a life of sin (Romans 6:15-23)? How could anyone who understands God’s unconditional and guaranteed love for those who believe, take that love and throw it back in God’s face? Such a person is demonstrating not that eternal security has given him a license to sin, but rather that he or she has not truly experienced salvation through Jesus Christ. “No one who lives in him keeps on sinning. No one who continues to sin has either seen him or known him” (1 John 3:6).

The Jihad on Christians in Mozambique
Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute./May 26, 2023
A savage jihad — replete with massacres, beheadings, and sexual enslavement — has been raging in the Christian-majority nation of Mozambique since 2017.
Few in the West are aware of this, not least as the situation has been garbed in Marxist language that seeks to depict radical terrorists as "victims" and those resisting them, including the Mozambican government, as "oppressors."
By May 2020, the massacres had reached the point that a "Genocide Warning" was issued. As of December 2021, the terrorists had slaughtered 3,340 people and displaced nearly a million more. The numbers of those killed and displaced has grown in the last year-and-a-half, though there appear to be no official statistics.
As in other African nations, the Muslim terrorists of ISM are deliberately targeting Christians.
"They say their goal is to set up a caliphate similar to ISIS in Iraq and Syria. And they are in some cases, literally going door to door. They ask, 'Are you a Christian? Or are you a Muslim?' If you're a Christian, you're killed [including by crucifixion]. If you're a Muslim, then you get the opportunity to quote some Quranic verses. And if you can quote them sufficiently, you save your life. Otherwise, you also get killed [for being insufficiently Islamic]." — Todd Nettleton, The Voice of the Martyrs USA, June 28, 2021.
"Islamic militants turned a village soccer field in northern Mozambique into an execution ground when they beheaded more than 50 people during three days of savage violence between Friday, November 6, and Sunday, November 8...." — Barnabas Aid, November 10, 2020.
After decapitating a Christian pastor, ISM terrorists handed the pastor's severed head to his widow and ordered her to deliver it to police.
Three years and countless more slaughters later, the world still has no idea what is happening, and the international community is nowhere to be seen.
Why? One reason is the media. They are committed to presenting the situation in purely economic terms, rarely if ever indicating that the terrorists are fueled by an expansionist, jihadist agenda to create an Islamic caliphate and subjugate if not slaughter Christians.
This situation is a duplicate of the situation in Nigeria: there, Muslims are committing genocide against Christians for purely ideological (Islamic) reasons, while here, in the West, the media and establishment are insisting that "religion is not driving extremist violence [in Nigeria]," to quote Johnnie Carson, then-President Barack Obama's Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs.
[A] report, "How poverty and corruption fuel terrorism across Africa," argues that such attacks, which "are on the rise across the African continent," are "a consequence of poverty, [and] domestic grievances new and old..." — Channel 4, April 16, 2021.
A genocidal jihad is being waged against Christians in virtually every corner of sub-Saharan Africa — from Nigeria in the northwest, to Mozambique in the southeast — but, for some reason, these black lives apparently do not matter.
A savage jihad — replete with massacres, beheadings, and sexual enslavement — has been raging in the Christian-majority nation of Mozambique since 2017. Pictured: Displaced persons from the town of Impire in Cabo Delgado province, on June 14, 2022, flee from jihadists who attacked their community. (Photo by Alfredo Zuniga/AFP via Getty Images)
A savage jihad — replete with massacres, beheadings, and sexual enslavement — has been raging in the Christian-majority nation of Mozambique since 2017.
Few in the West are aware of this, not least as the situation has been garbed in Marxist language that seeks to depict radical terrorists as "victims" and those resisting them, including the Mozambican government, as "oppressors."
A December 2021 report details how the Islamic State came to power in this southeast African nation:
"Mozambique is a majority Christian country, with Muslims comprising around a fifth of its population.
"A religious movement, Ansar al-Sunna, first appeared in 2015 in the north of the country, formed by followers of radical Kenyan cleric Aboud Rogo Mohammed who has been linked to the 1998 US embassy bombings....
"It started building mosques and religious schools, becoming more and more popular with locals.
"But in 2017, the group starting launching attacks and became known locally as al-Shabab [the Youth], although they do not have any known connection to Somalia's jihadist rebels of that name....
"Islamic State then confirmed that jihadis in Mozambique had joined its Central Africa Province division (ISCAP), along with militants in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
"ISIS have since claimed responsibility for many of the attacks carried out in Mozambique, including brutal beheadings and massacres, often posting photos of the victims online....
"The militants still refer to themselves as al-Shabab but they are now strongly considered to be an arm of ISIS, which was confirmed by US officials in December."
The terrorists, who go by many names, but are perhaps best known as the "Islamic State in Mozambique" (ISM), are especially active in and have gained effective control of the resource-rich Cabo Delgado province in late 2017. It has since been termed "the Land of Fear" due to the "brutal violence meted out against both Christians and moderate Muslims." On April 22, 2020, the Guardian reported:
"Militants have stepped up attacks in recent weeks as part of a campaign to establish an Islamist caliphate in the gas-rich region, seizing government buildings, blocking roads and briefly hoisting a black-and-white flag carrying religious symbols over towns and villages across Cabo Delgado province. The flag is also used by Isis and other Islamic extremists..."
By May 2020, the massacres had reached the point that a "Genocide Warning" was issued. As of December 2021, the terrorists had slaughtered 3,340 people and displaced nearly a million more. The numbers of those killed and displaced has grown in the last year-and-a-half, though there appear to be no official statistics.
As in other African nations, the Muslim terrorists of ISM are deliberately targeting Christians. Discussing the situation, Todd Nettleton, of The Voice of the Martyrs USA, said:
"They say their goal is to set up a caliphate similar to ISIS in Iraq and Syria. And they are in some cases, literally going door to door. They ask, 'Are you a Christian? Or are you a Muslim?' If you're a Christian, you're killed [including by crucifixion]. If you're a Muslim, then you get the opportunity to quote some Quranic verses. And if you can quote them sufficiently, you save your life. Otherwise, you also get killed [for being insufficiently Islamic]."
Similarly, Amy Lamb of Open Doors said that "their [the terrorists'] goal is really to eradicate Christianity from this territory and, unfortunately, in some ways, it's working."
The terrorists have themselves been vocal of their anti-Christian aims. In November 2022, ISM announced on social media:
"We will escalate the war against you [the 'Mozambican crusader army'] until you submit to Islam... Our desire is to kill you or be killed, for we are martyrs before Allah, so submit or run from us."
The statement also specifically named Christians and Jews, whom it offered "three choices: submit to Islam, pay tax [jizya], or accept endless war."
Other aspects of the Muslim persecution of Christians evident elsewhere in Africa — including rape and sexual slavery — are evident in Mozambique. According to a report published in December 2021, the Islamic terrorists have kidnapped and enslaved more than 600 women and girls since 2018 in just Cabo Delgado:
"The [ISM] group... forced younger, healthy-looking, and lighter-skinned women and girls in their custody to 'marry' their fighters, who enslave and sexually abuse them. Others have been sold to foreign fighters for between 40,000 and 120,000 Meticais (US$600 to US$1,800)."
In 2020, Paulo Rangel, a Portuguese Member of the European Parliament said:
"At present we know that there are young girls who have been abducted and enslaved, forced into sexual slavery by some of these guerrillas, these insurgents, these terrorists... We know that the recruitment of boys and adolescents, some of them very young, aged 14, 15, 16, is also happening. It is obvious that these young boys are under coercion. If they refuse to join the group, they could be killed."
Below are a few of the more notable incidents of terror to occur:
May 2018: Islamic terrorists beheaded 10 people with machetes on May 29. "There are 10 citizens who have been hideously killed," said a police spokesman. "The environment is scary."
April 2020: Muslim terrorists of ISM "cruelly and diabolically" slaughtered 52 villagers, most of them young men who refused to join the group. The terrorists also torched five or six chapels. Underscoring the hate, Bishop Lisboa described what happened to the historic Sacred Heart of Jesus mission:
"They attacked the church and burnt the benches and a statue of Our Lady, made of ebony. They also destroyed an image of the Sacred Heart of Jesus, to whom the parish is dedicated."
After noting that Islamic militants were responsible for "escalating extremist violence" in Cabo Delgado — "where multiple churches have been burnt, people beheaded, young girls kidnapped, and hundreds of thousands of people displaced by the violence" — a July 20 report adds:
"During Holy Week this year insurgents perpetrated attacks on seven towns and villages in Cabo Delgado province, burning down a church on Good Friday, and killing 52 young people who refused to join the terrorist group."
In just one week in the previous month of June, 15 people were beheaded in the Christian-majority nation.
May 2020: "It was fierce, cruel and lasted three days," a nun said of a jihadist raid on the town of Macomia between May 28-30. There was only devastation when Sister Blanca Nubia Castaño returned:
"As a result of this barbarism, the town center was completely destroyed, the majority of the administrative infrastructure was damaged and the commercial and shopping center was reduced to ashes.... We still don't know the number of civilian victims or those of the security forces. On June 3, people slowly began to return to their homes, some of which had been burned, while others had been looted.... "
Islamic terrorists also attacked a monastery in May 2020. The four monks residing in it managed to hide and emerge unscathed. However, the hospital they were building for a nearby village was destroyed by the armed Muslims.
November 2020: According to one report:
"Islamic militants turned a village soccer field in northern Mozambique into an execution ground when they beheaded more than 50 people during three days of savage violence between Friday, November 6, and Sunday, November 8....
"In one attack, gunmen shouting 'Allahu Akbar' stormed into Nanjaba village on November 6, firing weapons and setting homes on fire. Two villagers were beheaded and several women abducted....
"[A]nyone who refuses to support the jihadists and embrace their beliefs is attacked, and their property set on fire. Thus Christians who refuse to deny Christ are among the victims. The attacks are among the worst seen in recent years in the brutal campaign by militant Islamists to establish an Islamist caliphate in the oil and gas-rich Cabo Delgado province."
March 2021: On Mar. 24, scores of people were massacred or forced to flee during an Islamic terror attack near a major gas plant in Cabo Delgado. The number of casualties remains unknown; a local source said the area was covered with bodies, "with heads and without." Among the victims were 12 Westerners who were "tied up and beheaded" said an official. ISM later boasted of "killing at least 55 people, including Christians, Mozambique soldiers, state nationals and 'crusaders.'"
Hundreds fled into the bush on foot: "We have many children here," said a survivor who walked three days without food and water. "Many children are dying in the bush ... People have been captured and others have died." According to a separate report, published on Mar. 16, a few days before this massacre, correspondents in Mozambique were "sickened to our core" listening to mothers recount the fate of their children, some as young as 11, at the hands of the Muslim terrorists: "That night, our village was attacked, and houses were burned," one mother recalled. "When it all started, I was at home with my four children. We tried to escape to the woods, but they took my eldest son and beheaded him."
December 2021: After decapitating a Christian pastor, ISM terrorists handed the pastor's severed head to his widow and ordered her to deliver it to police.
August 2022: Muslim terrorists beheaded two Christians during a raid on a minibus. ISM later issued a statement claiming the murders: "By the grace of God Almighty, the soldiers of the Caliphate... killed two Christians, beheading them, and shooting them with weapons."
September 2022: Muslim terrorists stormed a Catholic mission compound in Chipene, where they set fire to the church, schools, and hospitals. One of the nuns, Maria De Coppi, was shot in the head and murdered as she ran towards a burning dormitory to assist the few remaining students hiding there. She was 83-year-old and had spent 59 years serving the people of Mozambique. Discussing this martyr, Bishop Alberto Vera Aréjula of Nacala said:
"I knew her, and she was the image of a mother, she was really helping everyone with simple love and humility.... Sister Maria de Coppi was a nurse who would help malnourished children in a little room where there was milk and flour, and they destroyed that room as well. The Sister they murdered worked with malnourished babies and children, [and] they are telling us very clearly that they don't want us there."
Three other Christians were killed during this attack. ISM later claimed responsibility for the attack and said they killed the nun because she had "excessively engaged in spreading Christianity."
On the following day, during another raid, the terrorists rounded all the villagers up. According to one source:
"When they were all gathered, they started asking who is Muslim and who is Christian. Those who identified as Christian, they started tying their hands behind their back and they cut their throats.
"One Christian managed to flee and he is the one who told the story. This is what happened on the night of Sept. 6 and the following day – 11 people were murdered in total and they left a trail of destruction and a lot of fear."
October 2022:
"Jihadists set fire to a church building and several houses in the Chiure district of Cabo Delgado Province on October 26, killing one person.
"The Islamists also announced the killing of 20 Christians and the displacement of hundreds more in Cabo Delgado between October 3 and 20."
Along with the church they torched, the jihadists said in a communique that they had also destroyed "other church property in Cabo Delgado," though no details were given. At least eight Christians were slaughtered in the same region in the previous month.
February 2023: In a statement, ISM said that "the soldiers of the Caliphate... captured five Christians and slaughtered them, praise be to Allah."
In July 2020, Bishop Lisboa, discussing the situation in Mozambique, said: "The world has no idea yet what is happening because of indifference. We do not yet have the solidarity that there should be." What is happening is "an injustice that is crying out to heaven."
Around the same time, Paulo Rangel, a Portuguese Member of the European Parliament, said: "The international community is nowhere to be seen in regard to the problem."
Three years and countless more slaughters later, the world still has no idea what is happening, and the international community is nowhere to be seen.
Why? One reason is the media. They are committed to presenting the situation in purely economic terms, rarely if ever indicating that the terrorists are fueled by an expansionist, jihadist agenda to create an Islamic caliphate and subjugate if not slaughter Christians.
This situation is a duplicate of the situation in Nigeria: there, Muslims are committing genocide against Christians for purely ideological (Islamic) reasons, while here, in the West, the media and establishment are insisting that "religion is not driving extremist violence [in Nigeria]," to quote Johnnie Carson, then-President Barack Obama's Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, speaking after Muslim terrorists shouting "Allahu akbar" slaughtered 50 Christian church worshippers in Nigeria on Easter Sunday, 2012.
Even though the March 2021 massacre in Mozambique took place nearly four years after it was clear that jihadists had infiltrated the country, and even though ISM claimed the attack, using typical jihadist language — referring to those it slaughtered as "crusaders," etc. — Britain's Channel 4 News resorted to the usual dissembling, claiming that "doubts have been cast over who was behind the siege." The rest of that report, "How poverty and corruption fuel terrorism across Africa," argues that such attacks, which "are on the rise across the African continent," are "a consequence of poverty, [and] domestic grievances new and old..."
Always happy to capitalize on Western gullibility and portray themselves as oppressed victims merely seeking to redress injustice and champion the people, the Islamic State in Mozambique — like Hamas, Hezbollah, and al-Qaeda before them — have tried to further such a narrative. During the raid where 83-year-old Sister Maria was murdered, for example, the terrorists, evidently in part to scapegoat the government, appeared dressed in military uniforms.
A genocidal jihad is being waged against Christians in virtually every corner of sub-Saharan Africa — from Nigeria in the northwest, to Mozambique in the southeast — but, for some reason, these black lives apparently do not matter.
*Raymond Ibrahim, author of Defenders of the West, Sword and Scimitar, Crucified Again, and The Al Qaeda Reader, is the Distinguished Senior Shillman Fellow at the Gatestone Institute and the Judith Rosen Friedman Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
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The Promises and Fallacies of the Saudi-Iranian Diplomatic Interlude, and the Search of a Regional Order.
Charles Elias Chartouni/May 26/2023
The mere observation of the regional political scene, over the last two months which succeeded the highly trumpeted Chinese mediation and its fallouts, mitigates ones expectations, and conveys a more sobering picture insofar the political evolutions in the Middle East. My hardly wired skepticism towards Middle Eastern politics is once more vindicated, while reviewing the paucity of tangible political outcomes, and the platitudes of self fulfilling prophecies. Aside from the abating violence between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and the fleeting exhilaration of the moment, we have a hard time figuring out the road map of the projected political horizon and its sequencing in time.
What we can reckon with, so far, are the reformist objectives of Saudi Arabia under MBS: the diversification of the economic base, and the weaning from the oil economy and the Rent-State model, the demise of religious doxa and controls, the incremental cultural liberalization, the progressive emancipation of women, the engagement of young generations, and the integration of multilateralism as a guiding principle in Foreign Affairs. However the cognitive blinders are still in place, since the autocratic model of development fails to set relevant priorities, and is often mesmerized by grandiose economic projects poorly connected to the true engines of sustainable development: education, reformed governance, promotion, liberalization and diversification of civil society undertakings and platforms, modernization of legal matrices and institutions, political liberalization, building of a modern and diversified professional spectrum, technology transfer and overhaul of basic infrastructures…,.
The fallacies of grandiose economic projects and their disconnectedness from integrated development schemes and true economic, educational, social and ecological concerns, are likely to backlash and fuel resentments. We need to be careful, while evaluating policy processes, about their relevance, connectedness, overall incidence on economic and social development, and timeliness. Saudi Arabia has a lot to do in this regard to make up for the pitfalls of interstitial development, civic disenfranchisement, unequal development and oligarchic entrenchments. Otherwise, the leadership aspirations at the international and regional levels have to avoid strategic miscalculations and overstretching, rally reformist domestic agendas in the respective Arab countries, renounce the Islamic imperial playbook, the shortsightedness of naked power politics and political subversion.
The Iranian-Shiite clerical dictatorship and its allies, far from sharing the reformist agenda of actual Saudi Arabia, is still enthralled by its imperial agenda, ideological dystopia , exponential militarization (conventional and nuclear), bloody repression of a liberalizing Iranian civil society, the solidifying of its demarcation lines throughout the Middle East, the vested interests of its oligarchic ruling coalition, and its mutating subversion strategy. The underlying appeasement intention which rallied both Iranian and Saudi antagonists was mainly guided by conflict weariness on both sides, overriding economic priorities on the Saudi side, strategic balancing on both accounts, whereas strategic interests and configurations are still straddling the religious, political and strategic chasms of an unstable Middle East.
These objectives are challenged on multiple accounts, since conflict resolution scenarios are still outweighed by destructive power politics and colliding imperial yearnings, erstwhile demarcation lines and overlapping zones of influence (Yemen, Iraq); Ideological radicalism, lively territorial contentions, reactivation of Israeli expansionism, demise of the peace negotiations legacy and actors (Israel and the Palestinian Territories), questioned by Iranian power politics, and Saudi apathy; the Iranian regime takeover strategy in Lebanon as a platform for regional subversion; the instrumentalization of the war generated political, economic and demographic debacles and their discretionary management by Iranian and Russian power brokers and their nemeses (Syria).
The late Arab summit in Jeddah has yielded an ambivalent result insofar as imposing Riyad as the rallying point of a new inter-Arab consensus. The unconditional rehabilitation of Syria, and the rehearsal of conventional power politics, are unlikely to yield a new dynamic of conflict resolution, political and economic integration in a region beset by structural problems of legitimate and functional statehood, conflictive ethno-religious cleavages, defaulting schemes of working economic integration and developmental cooperation. The absence of a coherent political narrative structured around transformative political and economic strategies, the narrowed scope of Saudi-Iranian power politics diplomacy, and the enduring legacy of a conflict prone regional geopolitics and its ideological subtexts, are unlikely to elicit new perspectives and set a watershed between two eras. Rather than being pessimistic, I am inclined to adhere to a more sobering and critical view, while welcoming whatever contributions yielded by the ongoing diplomatic overtures.

Battle for Bakhmut could be a turning point in Russia-Ukraine war
Dr. Diana Galeeva/Arab News/May 26, 2023
Recent months have seen a flowering of attempted diplomatic solutions to the Ukraine conflict. China proposed its own solution, followed by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s mooted “peace coalition,” in addition to the peace initiative launched by six African nations and the spiritual diplomacy of Pope Francis. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to rally global support, last week traveling to Jeddah to ask for support from the leaders at the Arab League Summit and then giving a speech at the G7 Summit, where he called on world leaders to prevent future wars by guaranteeing new weapons and sanctions against Moscow. So, where are we when it comes to the fighting and potential quieting of live conflict?
In the early weeks of the conflict, Russia rapidly advanced and took many areas of Ukraine, including some suburbs of Kyiv and many areas in the northeast around Sumy. Russian forces bombarded Kharkiv, controlled territories in the east and south as far as Kherson and surrounded the city of Mariupol. However, thanks to the strong Western military support for Ukraine that had arrived by last October, the picture changed significantly. Russia withdrew from the north and failed to take Kyiv. Ukraine pushed Russia back from Kharkiv and counterattacked around Kherson. Currently, Ukraine is in control of Kherson and has largely surrounded the Russian advance in the east.
The most-discussed recent battle has been the one for Bakhmut, which has been called the war’s longest-running sustained fight. This city sits in a geographically important location and is seen as key to securing the whole of the Donbas (the collective name for the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk).
The assault on Bakhmut city was started by Wagner Group fighters last October. By the beginning of 2023, Ukrainian troops had withdrawn from the town of Soledar, located to the north of Bakhmut. On May 8, Kyiv confirmed its forces had withdrawn from Popasna, about 24 km east of the city. Wider attention was drawn to this battlefield when Yevgeny Prigozhin, the chief of the Wagner mercenary group, appeared in an emotional video, accusing Russian generals of a range of supply and coordination failures and threatening his group’s withdrawal from Bakhmut by May 10.
This city sits in a geographically important location and is seen as key to securing the whole of the Donbas
Blaming Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the army’s Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov for the losses of Wagner personnel due to a lack of ammunition, he promised to leave the besieged eastern Ukrainian city. Despite this, the Wagner Group was still in Bakhmut when Prigozhin’s May 10 deadline passed.
Even though the Wagner Group did not withdraw, Prigozhin again complained about ammunition supplies. “We’re scraping by with a minimal quantity of shells,” he said in an audio statement. Further, on the evening of May 10, there were new updates on the situation on the ground, when a Ukrainian unit stated that it had routed a Russian infantry brigade on front-line territory near Bakhmut. A day later, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi commented that Russian units in some parts of Bakhmut had retreated by 2 km because of counterattacks.
Last Friday, Ukraine stated that it had repelled attacks by Russian forces aiming to recapture ground around Bakhmut. The next day, Prigozhin claimed that the Wagner Group had captured the city.
There are different views about whether this will prove to be a turning point in the war, but it clearly depends now on Ukraine’s counteroffensive. President Zelensky, who stated that Bakhmut “is not occupied” by Russia, has already secured fresh military aid through his attendance at the G7 Summit. US President Joe Biden declared a new military aid package worth $375 million, in addition to the $1.2 billion already committed at the beginning of this month. Meanwhile, Canada and Latvia agreed to jointly train Ukrainian soldiers on Latvian soil, beginning on May 15. This adds to Canada’s existing training efforts in Poland and the UK.
This week, after the events in Bakhmut, either Ukrainian saboteurs or armed Russian opposition groups entered Russia from Ukraine via Belgorod. In response, Moscow declared a “counterterrorism operation,” giving special powers to officials, as Russians stated that drones were shot down by anti-aircraft weapons. Ukraine denies responsibility and has said the attackers were Russian citizens from two paramilitary groups, the Liberty of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps. Russia said that the purpose of this action was to draw attention away from Bakhmut, “to minimize the political effect of the loss of Artyomovsk (Bakhmut) by the Ukrainian side,” according to Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov.
The outcome may define what is possible politically, as well as militarily, for either side in terms of a final settlement
Among the prevailing points of debate is the importance of this sub-conflict for the Kremlin. On the one hand, Bakhmut is a much lesser prize than the attempted seizure of Kyiv, but on the other it is a key zone in terms of Russia’s objective of maintaining control of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, especially after the referendums and legislative annexations of 2022.
By contrast, Ukraine’s stance is clear. It will only consider a peace plan if it meets its central condition: The reestablishment of its pre-2014 borders, including the consolidation of Crimea within its own territories. This makes this current moment and the expected counteroffensive so important. The outcome may define what is possible politically, as well as militarily, for either side in terms of a final settlement.
Zelensky has repeatedly sought military support from Ukraine’s Western allies, so naturally much of the discussion has focused on these talks. Several states have committed considerable funds and resources to this effort, showing their investment in the outcome. However, it is also important to take into account the Russian economy and the stances taken by so-far neutral actors in their relations with Moscow. These national interests — notwithstanding acknowledgements of Ukrainian suffering and in some cases offering humanitarian aid — include the potential economic opportunities created by the sanctions against Russia.
The situation around Bakhmut may influence the course of future collaborations and markets. It is certainly of interest to keep an eye on the delicate balancing act being performed here between courting global opinion and Western relations, while also securing nationally advantageous future links.
*Dr. Diana Galeeva is a former academic visitor to St. Antony’s College, Oxford University (2019-2022). Twitter: @Dr_GaleevaDiana
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point of view

Is OPEC About to Play With Oil Prices as the Summer Driving Season Starts?
Simon Henderson/The Messenger/May 26/2023
The roads seem busier these days, probably a sign of the post-COVID era, but also, even before the Memorial Day weekend, the start of the summer driving season. This, along with an OPEC meeting on June 3-4 in Vienna, suggests that the price of gasoline is going to re-emerge quickly as a topic of general conversation. The specialist media are already engaged, with Bloomberg reporting that most traders and analysts who were surveyed are predicting no change in production — meaning that the cartel is happy with the current oil price of around $75 per barrel for the widely-traded Brent Crude and does not feel the need to cut output in order to bump it up a few dollars.
But, as always, OPEC’s idea of a reasonable price is not the same as that judged reasonable by Joe or Jane Average. And how good are traders and analysts at predicting OPEC decisions? They might be OK at interpreting the underlying data but the thinking of oil ministers and the leaders of oil-producing states can be beyond them, as demonstrated by the supply cutbacks that shocked the markets in April, and in October last year.
Energy reporters had to leap into action this week when Saudi oil minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman warned: “I keep advising that [speculators] will be ouching. They did ouch in April. I don’t have to show my cards; I’m not [a] poker player … but I would just tell them, watch out.” Translated into more conventional English, he was saying that those traders who were predicting more price falls are taking a risk because the cartel may cut production, forcing prices up and perhaps causing such traders considerable losses.
“Ouch” is very much the sort of verb Prince Abdulaziz would use. He is an urbane, long-serving oil professional. But the main decision-maker in Saudi Arabia is his (much) younger half-brother, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, aka MbS, or, to his detractors, Mohammed Bone Saw, a reference to the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. And MbS’s main partner in OPEC decision-making, via the cartel’s larger OPEC+ configuration, is Russian President Vladimir Putin, another man for whom “ouch” is not part of his normal vocabulary.
The Saudi-Russia relationship on oil is intriguing. Saudi Arabia wants relatively high prices because it needs the revenue to fund MbS’s Vision 2030 plans for social and economic transformation of the Saudi kingdom, and in particular the high-profile mega projects that epitomize the crown prince’s ideas, of which the $500 billion NEOM city in the Northwest of the kingdom is the best known. But Russia is reported not to have followed through on its promises to cut output to protest the international sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine, apparently because of its desperation for any revenue it can get.
As always with real-life economics, there are other factors at play. The current negotiations on the debt limit of the United States are certainly a factor, credited with pushing the price per barrel up a dollar or two. China’s apparent economic recovery is also important for longer-term reasons. And the U.S. government is also finding it challenging to buy cheap oil to refill the strategic petroleum reserve. But OPEC is under pressure as well. Last month, it was condemned by the Paris-based International Energy Agency for its “siege” on ordinary consumers.
The ultimate test may be whether oil market traders are prepared to call Prince Abdulaziz’s bluff, short-selling oil (meaning they bet that the price will fall). Who will be “ouching” if they make the correct bet?
At least for those who follow this level of market detail, the next week looks like it will be, as they say, very interesting. For the rest of us, enjoy the holiday weekend (which will not be a holiday for the markets in the rest of the world).
*Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Russia and Iran press ahead with ‘New Suez’
Nikola Mikovic/The Arab Weekly/May 26/2026
Russia and Iran hope that the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) could be a game-changer for global trade. Even though the project is still far from being fully operational, officials from both countries have repeatedly framed the corridor as an alternative to the Suez Canal.
The INSTC consists of 7,200 kilometres of sea routes, rail links and roads that connect Mumbai to St Petersburg. The route runs from northern Russia across the Caspian Sea to southern Iran for shipment through the Strait of Hormuz and into the Arabian Sea, or Indian Ocean.
Moscow and Tehran hope the corridor will reduce reliance on the Suez Canal, one of the busiest shipping routes in the world that currently accounts for about 12 percent of global trade
[pdfjs-viewer url=https://www.mfat.govt.nz/assets/Trade/MFAT-Market-reports/The-Importance-of-the-Suez-Canal-to-Global-Trade-18-April-2021.pdf viewer_width=600px viewer_height=700px fullscreen=true download=true print=true openfile=false] and help Russia and Iran improve their positions in the international arena. A pair of deals in May has added momentum to the project, including an agreement on May 18 to jointly build and purchase 20 cargo ships.
According to Russian sources, it takes 30 to 45 days to deliver cargo by sea from Mumbai to St Petersburg. But once a transit through Iran is established, it will take only 15 to 24 days. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said he believes the INSTC “will help to significantly diversify global traffic flows,” and provide “obvious economic benefits” for both Iran and Russia. But the problem for Iranian and Russian strategic planners is that there is no guarantee the corridor will be completed anytime soon, if at all.
The two countries have been discussing this project for more than 20 years. Railroad construction was stalled for years due to financial, logistical, as well as political, complications. It is rather questionable whether the Kremlin would have decided to invest in the corridor if the European Union and the United States had not imposed sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.
Even some Iranian analysts claim that, before the war in Ukraine, Russian officials showed little interest in the construction of the INSTC railway, as they could ship goods from the Novorossiysk Port in the Black Sea to India.
Given that the war in Ukraine threatens Russia’s Black Sea shipping operations, the Kremlin was forced to look for alternatives. Moscow, isolated from the West, now seeks to develop close economic, political and military ties with Tehran. The INSTC could be seen as the Kremlin’s attempt to bypass Western sanctions and continue doing business with other countries more or less as usual.
But a sea route linking Russia and India via Iran does not resolve all of Moscow’s problems. To make the corridor fully operational, the Kremlin will also have to complete the land route running from northern Russia through Azerbaijan into northern Iran and then to the Arabian Gulf. On May 17, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a $1.7 billion contract to build the Rasht-Astara rail line, a project in northern Iran which will serve as a key cargo transit route within the INSTC system.
In other words, it is Moscow, rather than Tehran, that will fund the construction of a 162-kilometre railway between the Iranian cities of Rasht and Astara. It is believed that Russia will also build the railway linking Iran’s Astara with the Azerbaijani city of the same name. According to Putin, Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan are preparing an agreement on cooperation in the development of railway infrastructure and freight traffic along the north-south route.
Even though Russia has a history of constructing rail lines in the region, the first railways in Iran, connecting Tabriz and Mashhad, as well as Tehran and Isfahan, were built by the Russian Empire, under the current geopolitical circumstances, the fate of Putin’s ambitious plan remains rather uncertain. Even if Moscow and Tehran manage to complete the sea route of the INSTC, tense relations between Iran and Azerbaijan could have a significant impact on the land section.
Moreover, it will take at least four years for Russia to build railways in the region. Meanwhile, bogged down in Ukraine, the Kremlin could start facing large-scale turmoil at home, and such an outcome would undoubtedly affect its plans to complete the land corridor to Iran. Given that the transportation network is expected to go through Azerbaijan, rather than via Russian ally Armenia’s territory, Armenia is expected to continue turning its back on Moscow, which will be another consequence of Putin’s decision to launch the ambitious but very risky geopolitical project.
More importantly, if the INSTC passes through Azerbaijan, Moscow and Tehran will become heavily dependent on Baku, a loyal ally of NATO-member Turkey. The fact that Iran indirectly supports Armenia against Azerbaijan and that tensions between Baku and Yerevan, be they over Nagorno-Karabakh or over other territorial and political disputes, still remain high, additionally complicates the situation in the South Caucasus. Thus, a wide range of geopolitical challenges lies ahead of Russia and Iran.
Finally, the corridor is heavily-linked with the fate of the Russian and Iranian regimes. If either of the two countries faces significant turmoil in the next few years, the realisation of the INSTC will become quite uncertain.
*Nikola Mikovic is a political analyst in Serbia. His work focuses mostly on the foreign policies of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, with special attention on energy and “pipeline politics.”

How Much Did You Pay to Stop the Smuggling of Captagon?
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/May 26/2023
Stories of Syria using Captagon as a bargaining chip to secure funds for reconstruction and regain its seat in the Arab League have been making the rounds ever since the country’s return to the Arab fold was announced. Normally, such false stories dissipate just as quickly as they emerged.
How much did you pay to stop the smuggling of Captagon? Nobody paid, nor will anybody pay a single dollar in exchange for a state’s return to the Arab League. No payment will be made to buy off any state that opposes such a return, either. Returning to the Arab fold was a Syrian demand in the first place. Damascus believes it holds a rightful seat in the Arab League, much like the seats it still holds in international organizations, including the United Nations. Had the opposition seized power, it would have been sitting in that same seat.
Moreover, Syria’s stances and alignments have remained the same, which suggests its return will not impact the power balance in the region.
Instead, the thawing of relations with Damascus will lead to reconciliations, which in turn will lead to pacification in the region.
When Erdogan’s government reconciled with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt, the positive impact was immediately clear in the resumption of tourism and trade and the halt in media wars. Yet no major change took place in the region, nor did the other wars stop.
As for Bashar al-Assad’s return to the Arab fold, all Arab states but three already have relations with Damascus, and the three that don’t will restore them soon. It is hoped that this regional reconciliation will support the return of most Syrians to their cities and villages.
However, it is unlikely that Damascus will get any payment in return for the “gains” of its return to the Arab League and restoring of relations, including the halt of Captagon smuggling to Saudi Arabia. In fact, such a reward would only incentivize other states to deal with smugglers with complacency in order to jeopardize those efforts.
The rewards that Syria gets from its cooperation to end drug trafficking are the resumption of legitimate trade, the lifting of sanctions, and the renewal of economic cooperation, which will serve both parties.
Complacent states that serve as source or transit countries for illicit goods such as narcotics or weapons eventually pay a hefty price, as their agricultural, industrial, and service exports are often restricted or even banned. The opposite holds true, as well: the absence of relations and economic trade fuels the complacency of these states, as they have no interests to protect.
As such, the most effective tool available for prosperous governments in the region remains economic sanctions, which allow them to close their borders to source or transit countries. With the help of armed forces, border patrols, and drug authorities, they can curb trafficking attempts by weak or failed states.
Smuggling might seem like a profitable industry, but there’s another edge to that sword. Iran has long been a transit country for narcotics like opium, heroin, cocaine, and hashish as they make their way from Afghanistan to the rest of the world. This business afforded Iran some financial profit in a time of economic crisis, but it also destroyed two of the country’s assets.
Not only did drug use become rampant among Iranians, bordering a serious epidemic; but also, most states with whom Tehran had traditional relations banned its goods from crossing their borders. For all its magnitude, the money made from the cross-border drug trade rarely benefits the national economy or society. In Afghanistan, Syria, and Lebanon, only the few groups involved in the trafficking made profits, while the state’s legitimate trade took a fierce blow when most Gulf states instituted bans on their exports.
Aside from the destructive impact the illicit drug trade has on the youth in those states, state security is also deeply affected. Drug trafficking often engenders the emergence of organized gangs and terrorist organizations. Smugglers are also often involved in data collection activities; they also tend to smuggle and pick up arms and threaten local authorities. To believe the smuggling of Captagon will immediately stop would be foolish. Drug trade and smuggling maestros will spare no effort to keep their business going. This is an ongoing war.

Iran’s National Security Council Shuffle Signals Business as Usual
Farzin Nadimi/The Washington Institute./May 26/2023
The latest change followed the normal timeline for such appointments, and the new council secretary is a demonstrated loyalist who will presumably toe the Supreme Leader’s uncompromising line.
On May 22, Iran announced the appointment of Ali Akbar Ahmadian as secretary of the powerful Supreme National Security Council (SNSC). A former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN), Ahmadian would later serve as head of the IRGC’s Strategic Planning Division, dean of Imam Hossein University, and, since September 2022, as a member of the Expediency Council. He now replaces Ali Shamkhani, whose tenure as SNSC secretary lasted just three months short of the normal ten-year timeframe for such appointments.
As established practice, Ahmadian’s appointment to the council was formally made by President Ebrahim Raisi, the nominal head of the SNSC. More important, Khamenei immediately designated Ahmadian as one of his representatives on the council, giving him voting rights and an official direct line of communication with the Supreme Leader. Khamenei’s other council representative is another loyal hardliner, Saeed Jalili, who served as SNSC secretary from 2007 to 2013 and steered Iran’s nuclear negotiations during that time.
In a separate decree, Khamenei thanked Shamkhani for his service and appointed him as his political advisor and a member of the Expediency Council. This move dispelled rumors that Shamkhani had fallen out of favor, at least for now—some observers regard Expediency Council and advisory appointments as “parking orbits” for used-up assets who will be kept under watch as they continue to have protective details. In recent months, hardliners and anti-regime figures alike had increasingly attacked Shamkhani and his family for their vast accumulation of wealth from murky construction, petrochemical, and shipping businesses. At a time when quality of life is plummeting for most Iranians due to low incomes and high inflation, the Shamkhanis are accused of benefiting from preferential government rents under the guise of sanctions busting. For example, in the purportedly leaked proceedings of a January meeting between Khamenei and top security officials, Shamkhani was directly criticized for his sons’ extravagant lifestyle.
Who Is Ahmadian?
Born in 1961 and raised in Kerman, Ahmadian was training to become a veterinarian before he joined the 1979 revolution and fought in the Iran-Iraq War. A 2018 PolicyWatch portrayed him as a key architect of the IRGC’s asymmetric naval warfare doctrine when he chaired the IRGCN’s joint staff. He was also reportedly involved in tailoring that force’s expanding naval capabilities against the U.S. regional presence and planning large-scale naval exercises when he commanded the IRGCN between 1997 and 2000. Yet insider information that has emerged since then offers a clearer and less charitable profile, casting him as more of an opportunistic, meticulous bureaucrat and political staff officer than a seasoned operational field commander. His few academic articles available online mainly echo the Supreme Leader’s views on threat perception and “jihadi management.” He also tried to combine asymmetric and Shia-devoted warfare concepts to create a robust warfighting concept in a 2009 speech.
Ahmadian’s unwavering loyalty allowed him to quickly establish links with the Supreme Leader’s office, bypass the chain of command, and report directly to Khamenei, further solidifying his place in the IRGC. Unsurprisingly, Khamenei later picked him as chair of the IRGC Joint Staff in 2000, replacing his ex-boss Hossein Alaei, who was falling out of the Supreme Leader’s favor thanks in part to Ahmadian’s reports. In that role, Ahmadian is said to have further purged the IRGC of reformist commanders, working in tandem with his close ally Majid Mirahmadi, who is currently the interior minister’s deputy for security and policing affairs as well as secretary of the SNSC's security sub-council.
In 2007, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned Ahmadian as an IRGC commander pursuant to UN Security Council Resolution 1737. The European Union, Australia, and Japan quickly followed suit. That resolution was superseded in 2015 by Resolution 2231, which listed Ahmadian as one of various individuals involved in Iranian proliferation efforts and directed UN member states to freeze his assets until October 18, 2023. Therefore, he should still technically face some travel restrictions until at least that date.
What Next for the SNSC?
Per Article 176 of Iran’s constitution, the SNSC is tasked with securing national interests, safeguarding the Islamic Revolution, and preserving the republic’s territorial integrity and national sovereignty by outlining defense and security policies within the guidelines set forth by the Supreme Leader. This entails coordinating all activities that affect Iran’s defense (and offense) and using all resources to counter domestic and foreign threats. The council is chaired by the president and attended by the heads of the other branches of government, the chair of the joint armed forces staff, the head of budgetary affairs, the ministers of foreign affairs, interior, and intelligence, two Khamenei representatives, and, when needed, the commanders of the Artesh and IRGC.
As noted previously, the president is the SNSC’s official head, but the secretary is considered its highest-ranking fixed member. As the Supreme Leader’s top representative on the council, the secretary presides over its decisions and how they are implemented; he also has several deputies.
Iranian opposition and human rights groups have harshly criticized the SNSC in recent years. In 2020, they accused it of failing to order a no-fly zone over western and central Iran at a time of heightened military tensions with the United States, reportedly resulting in an air defense unit mistaking a Ukrainian civilian jetliner near Tehran for an American reprisal strike and downing the plane. And during the mass protests that swept Iran in 2019 and 2022-23, the council was accused of ordering security personnel to fire on young demonstrators, resulting in thousands of deaths and injuries.
Regarding Iran’s nuclear intentions, the SNSC was taken off that file when Shamkhani became secretary in 2013, with the Foreign Ministry spearheading nuclear negotiations thereafter. Yet Shamkhani still commented on the state of nuclear talks at various points. For example, on May 22, 2018—shortly after the Trump administration withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal—he declared that under no circumstances would Iran negotiate a new nuclear agreement with the West. Therefore, it is unclear whether Khamenei will direct Ahmadian to pave the way for resuming the currently stalled negotiations. In recent remarks, the Supreme Leader hardened his view on the “heroic flexibility” that he exhibited by allowing new talks in the first place—that is, he redefined the negotiating process as just a temporary means of bypassing obstacles on the way to Tehran’s unspecified ultimate objectives. (For more on how the idea of “heroic flexibility” affects Iran’s deterrence strategy, see PolicyWatch 2512.)
Elsewhere, the SNSC has been formally in charge of security negotiations with neighboring countries, including the recent Chinese-mediated talks with Saudi Arabia. Yet doubts persist about Iran’s long-term intentions for rapprochement with Riyadh. During Khamenei’s aforementioned January meeting with top security officials, he allegedly mentioned an SNSC “decision” to implement a temporary behavioral shift in the region in order to ease pressure on the regime at home, “until the time comes to finish off the existing crisis [referring to the mass protests that began last September] using even harsher yet more discreet measures and achieve stability.” The purported leak did not elaborate on what such a shift might entail, and the SNSC’s deliberations on these and other matters are never announced publicly.
Conclusion
The timing of Ahmadian’s elevation seems unremarkable—this is a regular time of year for Khamenei to make political appointments, and Shamkhani had completed the normal decade in office for this post. Moreover, Ahmadian is extremely loyal to Khamenei and his son Mojtaba, giving the Supreme Leader additional peace of mind that the secretary of the SNSC will follow his instructions to the minute. What matters more is the continual flow of evidence about Khamenei’s apparent intentions—namely, that his recent show of flexibility in the region is a calculated attempt to defuse the regime’s crises at home, while his hardline statements and appointments show no sign of compromise in the nuclear file or long-term regional de-escalation.
*Farzin Nadimi is a senior fellow with The Washington Institute.