English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For March 14/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Healing the Blind Man in Bethsaida: Jesus laid his hands on his eyes and he looked intently and his sight was restored and he saw everything
Saint Mark 08/22-26: “They came to Bethsaida. Some people brought a blind man to him and begged him to touch him. He took the blind man by the hand and led him out of the village; and when he had put saliva on his eyes and laid his hands on him, he asked him, ‘Can you see anything?’And the man looked up and said, ‘I can see people, but they look like trees, walking.’Then Jesus laid his hands on his eyes again; and he looked intently and his sight was restored, and he saw everything clearly. Then he sent him away to his home, saying, ‘Do not even go into the village.’”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 13-14/2023
May The Curse Be Upon Political parties & Officials Who betrayed the Cedar Revolution and sold out the March 14 Coalition/Elias Bejjani/March 14/2023
What Does The Lost Son Parable Teach Us/Elias Bejjani/March 12/2023
Special Tribunal For Lebanon asks Lebanon to arrest Hariri's killers
Mikati meets al-Rahi before traveling to Vatican
Bukhari from Ain el-Tineh: There's 'certainly' something positive for Lebanon
Berri meets Deputy UN chief, Press Editors Syndicate, ATFL delegation
Mikati meets Mufti Derian, UN Deputy Secretary General, Representative of International Organization of La Francophonie, National Commission for...
Economy Ministry sets new prices for bread bundles
Berri: Franjieh can be president who would talk to Syria, tackle defense strategy
Qaouq: We're not awaiting any foreign settlement
Frnech judge arrives in Lebanon to question Salameh
Bou Najem meets Geagea in presidential talks tour
UNICEF welcomes school reopening and reaffirms commitment to strengthen public schools in Lebanon
Falha heads Lebanese delegation to meetings of Standing Committee for Arab Media in Kuwait
Dollar slides on likely rate pause in wake of SVB collapse
Lebanon to elect a president soon, officials tell US diaspora group
LIC Welcomes UN Human Rights Council Statement
A circle from Frangieh to Frangieh in Lebanon/Sami Moubayed, Special to Gulf News/ March 13/2023

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 13-14/2023
Returning to frontline, Ukrainian Leopard crews see their 'cat' as game-changer
Russia's air defence downs four missiles in Belgorod region - governor
Bloodshed in Bakhmut: Russia Suffers Potentially Deadliest Day Yet in Ukraine
Georgian PM tells Ukraine's Zelenskiy not to meddle in his country
Iran Has Pardoned 22,000 Arrested During Protests, Says Judiciary Chief
Iran Arrests 100 People Over Female Students’ Poisoning
Iran Pledges Achieving Regional Peace, Stability
Libya Announces Arrangements to Reopen Iranian Embassy in Tripoli
UN’s envoy to Syria holds talks with Egyptian foreign minister and Arab League chief
Turkish opposition making gains in opinion polls ahead of elections
UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria documents failure to protect country’s civilians
China's Xi wants bigger global role after Saudi-Iran deal

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 13-14/2023
With Saudi-Iran diplomacy, is China pushing the US aside in the Middle East?/Simon Henderson/The Hill/March 13/2023
How optimistic should we be about the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement?/Faisal J. Abbas/Arab News/March 13/2023
Arabs won’t win America’s respect by rebranding as MENA/Ray Hanania/Arab News/March 13/2023
Post-Brexit Britain slams its doors on the outside world/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/March 13/2023
Iran-Saudi deal gives Tehran an opportunity to change/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/March 13/2023
Saudi Arabia, the magnet of peace/Hassan bin Youssef Yassin/Arab News/March 13/2023
The ‘Multi-Pronged’ Attack on Christianity/Raymond Ibrahim/American Thinker/March 13/2023
2020 Archives/China’s Emerging Middle Eastern Kingdom/China’s drive for supremacy is now underway in the Middle East—and it won’t end there/BY MICHAEL DORAN AND PETER ROUGH/The Tablet/AUGUST 02, 2020

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 13-14/2023
May The Curse Be Upon Political parties & Officials Who betrayed the Cedar Revolution and sold out the March 14 Coalition
Elias Bejjani/March 14/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/116550/116550/
On the 18 anniversary of the March 14 uprising, we pray reverently for the souls of all the righteous, sovereign and patriotic heroic martyrs.
Definitely, it was a deadly sin committed by the all the mercenary Lebanese leaders, officials and politicians who betrayed the Cedar’s Revolution, and sold out the March 14 Coalition.
These mercenaries belittled the martyrs sacrifices by their low and despicable entry into the Trojan presidential deal with the occupier, the terrorist Iranian Hezbollah Armed Militia.
History will not remember those dwarfs who sold the Cedar’s Revolution, and the March 14 coalition, without humiliation, contempt, if it mentions them. They we be remembered with shame, they surely will rest for ever in history’s dustbin.
These foolish traitors fell into the traps and instinctive Satan’s temptations and drowned themselves in greed. They sold the March 14 Sovereign-patriotic Coalition with national myopia and blindness of insight.
They exchanged the people’s revolution, sovereignty, and the blood of martyrs, with authority and personal benefits. They ungratefully stepped over the sacrifices and blood of Lebanon’s righteous martyrs.
As a result of their greed, shortsightedness, narcissism, and worshipping of authority, the terrorist Iranian Hezbollah armed militia managed to entirely control and occupy Lebanon.
Because of this patriotic deviation and sin, Lebanon has lost its role and message, and fell under the Hezbollah hegemony and occupation.
Meanwhile, we affirm with peace of conscience that the sovereign and patriotic spirit of March 14 coalition is alive and active in the souls, hearts and consciences of our free sovereign Lebanese people, while it is completely dead in the hearts and minds of all political parties, politicians and puppet officials who betrayed it and traded sovereignty with personal benefits and authority.
Hence, in times of misery and unhappiness, the people of March 14 Coalition are a national necessity.
In times of servility and surrender, the popular spirit of March 14 Coalition is the answer.
And in a time of deceit, heresy, outrageous, and the lie of what was falsely and cowardly called “political realism,” the people of March 14 Coalition have knocked down the Trojans’ masks and exposed them.
At a time when personal interests prevail over public and national ones, people’s support to the culture and values of March 14 Coalition continues to prevail.
And at a time when belittling the blood of the martyrs and forgetting their sacrifices, the March 14th Coalition of consciences will not forget the sacrifices of its heroes, and will not trade in their blood.
And in a miserable and betrayal time where the Trojans, scribes and Pharisees dominate our Lebanon’s official Decision Making process, and dragging the country and its people into astray and alien paths, the people of March 14 Coalition is a must.
And at a time when politicians have lost the compass of freedom, dignity and self respect, the goals and struggles, of March 14 Coalition remain the solution, the foundation and the cornerstone.
In conclusion, the spirit of March 14, remains an urgent need for the continuation of struggle and strengthening the ranks of the liberals..

What Does The Lost Son Parable Teach Us
Elias Bejjani/March 12/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/73276/elias-bejjani-values-that-we-can-we-learn-from-the-lost-son-parable/
In our Maronite Catholic Church’s rite, on the Fourth Lent Sunday we recall and cite the biblical Lost Son’s parable that is known also as The Prodigal Son. (Lost Son) This impulsive, selfish and thoughtless son, as the parable tells us, fell prey to evil’s temptation and decided to take his share of his father’s inheritance and leave the parental dwelling.
He travelled to a far-away city where he indulged badly in all evil conducts of pleasure and corruption until he lost all his money and became penniless. He experienced severe poverty, starvation, humiliation and loneliness. In the midst of his dire hardships he felt nostalgic, came back to his senses and decided with great self confidence to return back to his father’s house, kneel on his feet and ask him for forgiveness. On his return his loving and kind father received him with rejoice, open arms, accepted his repentance, and happily forgave him all his misdeeds. Because of his sincere repentance his Father gave him back all his privileges as a son. This parable is a road map for repentance and forgiveness. It shows us how much Almighty God our Father loves us, we His children and how He is always ready with open arms and willing to forgive our sins and trespasses when we come back to our senses, recognize right from wrong, admit our weaknesses and wrongdoings, eagerly and freely return to Him and with faith and repentance ask for His forgiveness. Asking Almighty God for what ever we need is exactly what the Holy Bible instructs us to do when encountering all kinds of doubt, weaknesses, stumbling, hard times, sickness, loneliness, persecution, injustice etc.Matthew 07/07&08: “Ask, and it will be given you. Seek, and you will find. Knock, and it will be opened for you. For everyone who asks receives. He who seeks finds. To him who knocks it will be opened” All what we have to do is to pray and to ask Him with faith, self confidence and humility and He will respond. Matthew 21/22: “All things, whatever you ask in prayer, believing, you will receive.”
We are not left alone at any time, especially when in trouble, no matter how far we distance ourselves from God and disobey His Holy bible. He is a Father, a loving, caring and forgiving Father. What is definite is that in spite of our foolishness, stupidity, ignorance, defiance and ingratitude He never ever abandons us or gives up on our salvation. He loves us because we His are children. He happily sent His only begotten son to be tortured, humiliated and crucified in a bid to absolve our original sin.’ God carries our burdens and helps us to fight all kinds of Evil temptations.
Matthew11/28-30: “Come to me, all you who labor and are heavily burdened, and I will give you rest. Take my yoke upon you, and learn from me, for I am gentle and lowly in heart; and you will find rest for your souls. For my yoke is easy, and my burden is light.”
God is waiting for our repentance, let us run to Him and ask for forgiveness before it is too late

Special Tribunal For Lebanon asks Lebanon to arrest Hariri's killers
LCC//March 13/2023
The Appeals Chamber of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon asked the Lebanese judiciary to implement the summaries of judgments and arrest warrants issued in absentia against four Hezbollah security cadres. It called for the arrest of: Salim Jamil Ayyash, Hassan Habib Merhi, Hussein Hassan Issa and Assad Hassan Sabra, who were convicted by the court of involvement in the terrorist act that took place on February 14, 2005 and resulted in the killing of the Prime Minister of Lebanon, Rafik Hariri, and 21 others. The court instructed the Lebanese authorities to arrest and hand over the aforementioned persons. It also requested the Registrar of the Court to provide the Government of the Netherlands with a certified copy of the verdict, and authorized its Public Prosecutor to request the General Secretariat of Interpol to issue its bulletins regarding these persons so that they become valid for execution as international arrest warrants. The Public Prosecution Office of the Court of Cassation in Lebanon hastened to hang these judgments and arrest warrants on its board to notify the judgments at its main entrance. He pointed out that “the security forces carried out raids on their places of residence in the southern suburbs of Beirut and in the town of Shuhour in southern Lebanon, but they were not found at these known addresses.”

Mikati meets al-Rahi before traveling to Vatican
Naharnet//March 13/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Monday urged those who consider cabinet meetings as illegitimate to go ahead and elect a president. Mikati's statement came after a meeting with Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi, during which they discussed the Taif Agreement, the presidential file and Mikati's visit to the Vatican. The meeting also discussed the caretaker cabinet sessions. "I have explained to al-Rahi the necessity of these meetings, and he was understanding," Mikati said, calling the parties who consider these meeting as "illegitimate" to "go ahead and elect a president."
Before his meeting with al-Rahi, Mikati said that with the Patriarch's blessings, "Lebanon's spring has become imminent.""Patriarch al-Rahi has described the recent escalating sectarian talks as a political hysteria," Mikati said, stressing that pluralism is healthy for Lebanon, and lauding the Taif Agreement that "protects pluralism" and "preserves Lebanon and everyone."Mikati and al-Rahi will re-meet after he returns from the Vatican.

Bukhari from Ain el-Tineh: There's 'certainly' something positive for Lebanon
Naharnet//March 13/2023
Saudi Ambassador Walid Bukhari met Monday with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri in Ain el-Tine. As he left the meeting, Bukhari told reporters that there is "certainly" something positive for Lebanon.
Berri is reportedly preparing to visit Riyadh in the coming period, after a recent reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran following years of tensions.

Berri meets Deputy UN chief, Press Editors Syndicate, ATFL delegation
NNA//March 13/2023
House Speaker Nabih Berri received, at his Ain-el-Tineh residence on Monday, the United Nations' Deputy Secretary General, Amina Mohammed, and an accompanying delegation.
He later welcomed a delegation of the American Task Force for Lebanon (ATFL), chaired by Ed Gabriel, in the presence of US Ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea. Talks reportedly touched on the current general situation on the local scene.
Berri also met with a delegation of the Press Editors Syndicate, to whom he stressed that "the political solution begins with the presidency of the republic." He also stressed the necessity of electing a president "who would talk to Syria about the border demarcation and the displaced crisis." "We want a president capable of tackling the defense strategy, a president who believes in the Taif Agreement," he added. "For all the aforementioned reasons, we have nominated Sleiman Frangieh," he said.

Mikati meets Mufti Derian, UN Deputy Secretary General, Representative of International Organization of La Francophonie, National Commission for...
NNA//March 13/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Monday received at the Grand Serail, Grand Mufti of the Lebanese Republic, Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian, and the new Council of Muftis, in the presence of Caretaker Minister of Interior and Municipalities, Judge Bassam Mawlawi, Caretaker Minister of Economy and Trade, Amin Salam, and the Secretary General of the Council of Ministers, Judge Mahmoud Makiya. During the meeting, Caretaker Premier Mikati welcomed "His Eminence, the Mufti of the Lebanese Republic and the Muftis of the regions and governorates,” and considered that "the convening of the Council of Muftis constitutes a new beginning that consolidates the unity of the country with its provinces and regions and its integration."
Mikati also renewed the call for holding a constructive dialogue with all national components, for the sake of national unity and cooperation among all its people.
During the meeting, Mufti Derian hailed the efforts undertaken by Premier Mikati in addressing all political, economic and daily living issues endured by the Lebanese citizens.
The Mufti underlined the importance of consensus and agreement between the political parties in the interest of Lebanon and the Lebanese. On te other hand, Premier Mikati received Deputy Secretary General of the United Nations, Amina Mohammed, in the presence of the Executive Secretary of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), Rola Dashti, and the UN Deputy Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator, Imran Riza.
The meeting also took place in the presence of Premier Mikati’s Advisors Ambassador Boutors Assaker and Ziad Mikati.
Discussions during the meeting reportedly touched on cooperation between Lebanon and the United Nations.
Amina Mohammed's visit falls within the framework of the special mission assigned to her by the Secretary-General of the United Nations to discuss with the Lebanese government the developmental programs funded by the United Nations and the impact of the geopolitical reality in the region on the UN aid programs. Mikati later received the Representative of the International Organization of La Francophonie in the Middle East, Levon Amirjanyan, in the presence of Tunisian Ambassador to Lebanon, Bouraoui Limam. The Prime Minister also received a delegation of the Lebanese National Commission for UNESCO. During the meeting, the committee's work and activities were discussed.

Economy Ministry sets new prices for bread bundles
NNA//March 13/2023
The Ministry of Economy and Trade on Monday set the price of the medium-size bread bundle at LBP 35,000 and that of the family-size bundle at LBP 44,000.

Berri: Franjieh can be president who would talk to Syria, tackle defense strategy
Naharnet//March 13/2023
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Monday defended the Shiite Duo’s nomination of Suleiman Franjieh for the president post. In a meeting with a delegation from the Press Syndicate and the Press Editors Syndicate, Berri reminded that Franjieh had also been a candidate “when the term of president Emile Lahoud was extended.”“Wasn’t he nominated by (then-U.S.) Ambassador David Hale? Wasn’t he a candidate when General Michel Aoun was nominated?” Berri added. He also reminded that Franjieh was one of the top four Christian leaders who met in Bkirki in 2011 after which it was agreed to elect one of them as president. “What do we want from a president? We need a president who would talk to Syria over the issue of border demarcation and resolving the refugee crisis, because if we want to rely on the Europeans and Americans, they don’t care at all about this issue. We want a president who would be able to tackle the defense strategy and who believes in the Taif Accord, and based on all of this we have nominated Mr. Suleiman Franjieh,” Berri added. As for his meeting with the Saudi ambassador earlier in the day, Berri noted that there had been “communication” prior to the meeting and that it would continue. “Several meetings were held prior to this meeting,” he pointed out. He added: “The political solution begins with the presidency and Suleiman Franjieh has extended his hand to everyone and has reconciled with everyone. If Suleiman Franjieh is not unifying, who else can be?” And noting that “there can be no salvation for Lebanon without a civil state,” Berri lashed out at “the voices calling for partitioning and federalism under the veiled slogans of broad administrative and financial decentralization.”“Lebanon is like an atom: if partitioned it would blow up,” Berri warned.

Qaouq: We're not awaiting any foreign settlement
Naharnet//March 13/2023
Hezbollah central council member Sheikh Nabil Qaouq on Monday stressed that his party and its allies are “not awaiting any foreign settlement -- neither bilateral nor among five parties -- that would impose on the Lebanese characteristics and names for the presidency.”“Hezbollah, the Amal Movement, the allies and the friends have opened a horizon for resolving the presidential crisis through domestic consensus, away from foreign vetoes and specifications. As for the election of a challenge and confrontation president, this now belongs to the past, and we’re talking about the present and the future,” the Hezbollah official added. “The challenge and confrontation camp exaggerated its size and endorsed slogans that were bigger than its reality and capabilities. It wanted to elect a challenge and confrontation president and this meant that it wanted to drag the country into domestic strife. They tried throughout 11 sessions and they failed and these sessions were enough to return them to their true sizes and to make them realize that their slogans were unrealistic and had no place in Lebanon,” Qaouq went on to say. Commenting on the newly-reached Iranian-Saudi reconciliation agreement, the Hezbollah official said it represents “a dual strategic failure for Israel and America and a fatal blow to the Israeli-American scheme for the creation of an Arab-Israeli NATO against Iran.” He added: “The region has entered a new phase, which is certainly is not in the interest of America and Israel, which is screaming of pain, because all its normalization dreams did not lead to besieging Iran nor to ending the (Palestinian) intifada.”

Frnech judge arrives in Lebanon to question Salameh
Naharnet//March 13/2023
The Observatoire Européen pour l'Integrité du Liban said Monday that French judge Aude Buresi will arrive in Lebanon in the upcoming hours to question Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh. The interrogation will take place in the presence of First Investigative Judge of Beirut Charbel Abou Samra, the observatory said. Abou Samra had scheduled last week a March 15 session for the interrogation of Salameh, his brother Raja and his assistant Marianne Hoayek. Salameh categorically denies all accusations against him and has rarely appeared before the judiciary, despite numerous complaints, summonses, investigations and a travel ban issued against him a year ago. Lebanon opened an investigation into Salameh's assets in 2021, after a request for assistance from Switzerland's public prosecutor probing more than $300 million in fund movements by the governor and his brother. In January, a European judicial delegation from France, Germany, and Luxembourg visited Lebanon to question dozens of individuals over suspected corruption after five European state opened cases against Salameh.

Bou Najem meets Geagea in presidential talks tour
Naharnet//March 13/2023
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea met Monday with Maronite Archbishop of Antelias Antoine Bou Najem over the presidential crisis. Assigned by Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi, Bou Najem had started last month to meet Christian leaders in an attempt to secure Christian consensus over the presidential file. L'Orient-Le Jour leaked last week a non-final list of potential consensual candidates whose names have been discussed between the Christian leaders and Bou Najem. The list included Marada leader Suleiman Franjieh, Army chief Joseph Aoun, MP Michel Mouawad and others. Media reports said that al-Rahi will call for an inter-Christian meeting, as soon as Bou Najem finishes his tour.

UNICEF welcomes school reopening and reaffirms commitment to strengthen public schools in Lebanon
NNA//March 13/2023
Today, after two months of school closures, more than 450,000 children are back to school and learning. With the international community, UNICEF is supporting the Ministry of Education and Higher Education to ensure children, teachers and schools have what they need to return to in-person teaching and learning. Last week, UNICEF disbursed USD13.7 million to 1074 public schools – including 342 afternoon shift - for vital contributions to School Funds and Parent Council Funds; initiated the first payment of the productivity allowance for 13,160 special contracted teachers and administrative staff; and issued the salaries of special contracted teachers. More investment targeting the most vulnerable children to access inclusive and quality education is essential given it has been stalled for the last four years. Retaining and getting more students in school, mainly the 700,000 out-of-school children, requires predictable multi-year investment from the Government of Lebanon. However, challenges in the education sector will not be addressed solely by increasing funding. Reforms and national policies that improve the equity, efficiency and effectiveness of overall education spending in Lebanon are also highly needed.
If Lebanon is committed to having a public education system which allows all children and the country to leapfrog to a brighter future, all sections of society need to align on a shared purpose. All stakeholders in Lebanon need to be prepared to prioritize education now. Lebanon’s children and the country cannot afford school closures.—UNICEF

Falha heads Lebanese delegation to meetings of Standing Committee for Arab Media in Kuwait
NNA//March 13/2023
Lebanon’s Ministry of Information General Director, Dr. Hassan Falha, on Monday headed the Lebanese delegation to the meetings of the Standing Committee for Arab Media, which is currently taking place in Kuwait under the umbrella of the Arab League until March 16. During the meetings, the Standing Committee for Arab Media will hold its 98th session, and the 24th meeting of the Permanent Group of Experts concerned with following up the role of media in confronting the phenomenon of terrorism.
In his delivered speech, Dr. Falha said, "In light of the enormous technical development and the unlimited knowledge that has changed the nature of humanity's approach to lifestyles and patterns, we must reproduce cultures that keep pace with said development, yet preserve our values, traditions, and heritage."
Falha further underlined the need for “good investment in the media and the ability to use it by keeping pace with modern technological developments.”He went on to call for more attention to humanitarian issues, most importantly the Palestinian cause, censuring what the Palestinian people are being subjected to, often from global injustice and permanent Israeli occupation. “Therefore, I hope that the assembled brothers will first confirm a homogeneous Arab media strategy to serve Arab causes,” Falha added. “Secondly, we must focus on showing the true image of religions, especially our true religion [Islam], and reject violence and discrimination. We must confront the smearing campaigns that we are being exposed to,” he added. Falha then reiterated the need for the Palestinian cause “to be automatically present in the work of all of our committees.”"Thanks to the sisterly State of Kuwait for the good organization and hospitality, and to the curators of these works,” Falha concluded.

Romanian Cultural Institute, Embassy of Romania celebrate 30th anniversary of Romania's accession to International Organization of Francophonie
NNA//March 13/2023
The Romanian Cultural Institute and the Embassy of Romania in Lebanon are organizing, during the Month of Francophonie, to celebrate the 30th anniversary of Romania's accession to the International Organization of Francophonie, the concert LA ROUMANIE EN VOYAGE MUSICAL FRANCOPHONE, featuring soprano Mihaela Mingheraș (Romania-France), tenor Bechara Moufarrej (Lebanon), pianist Denis Dubois (France), violinist Ondin Brezeanu (Romania) and tenor William Barakat (Lebanon).
The concert will take place on 14 March 2023, at 19:30, at the church Saint Maron in Gemmayzé.

Dollar slides on likely rate pause in wake of SVB collapse
NNA//March 13/2023
The dollar fell sharply on Monday on heightened expectations the Federal Reserve will take a less aggressive monetary path as authorities stepped in to limit the fallout from the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O). The U.S. government announced several measures early during the Asian trading day, saying all SVB customers will have access to their deposits starting on Monday. The authorities also said depositors of New York's Signature Bank (SBNY.O), which was closed Sunday by the New York state financial regulator, would be made whole at no loss to the taxpayer.--Reuters

Lebanon to elect a president soon, officials tell US diaspora group
Najia HoussariArab News/March 13/2023
The Lebanese public are facing crisis after crisis amid a presidential vacuum that has continued for five months
BEIRUT: Lebanese officials on Monday suggested that the country could soon end its presidential vacuum and political deadlock by electing a new leader.
After meeting with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, Edward Gabriel, president of the American Task Force for Lebanon, said that the speaker informed him that “a session will be held soon to elect a president.”The American Task Force for Lebanon is an NGO made up of prominent Americans of Lebanese heritage who work to strengthen ties between Washington and Beirut. Meanwhile, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said after meeting with Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al-Rahi that “Lebanon’s relief is around the corner and a president should be elected, as it is the door for salvation.”
The Lebanese public are facing crisis after crisis amid a presidential vacuum that has continued for five months. Moreover, Lebanese Parliament is unable to pass legislation before the election of a president, and the cabinet cannot take any decisions, since it is acting in a caretaker capacity.
The dollar rate reached 92,000 Lebanese pounds at the beginning of this week, while banks are set to close their doors again to protest judicial decisions issued against them, despite promises to suspend the measures. Through its president, the American Task Force for Lebanon called for “the necessity to elect a president and carry out the needed reforms, especially with regard to electricity.” Gabriel said that “the task force reminded Berri of his earlier promise to elect a president by the end of 2022; however, this didn’t happen.”
Gabriel denied discussing the Saudi-Iranian agreement with Berri.
Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari on Monday also visited Berri. He said that the speaker “called for balanced rhetoric and stated that the current stage requires resorting, more than ever, to kind rhetoric and permanent wagering on good will.”Lebanese political parties hold divergent opinions on the new Saudi-Iranian agreement. Hezbollah, through statements delivered by some of its officials, says the agreement “is a victory for its presidential choice,” deeming the election of its candidate Sleiman Frangieh to be crucial. Meanwhile, the political camp opposing Hezbollah issued a statement that said: “It is still too soon to capitalize on an agreement that didn’t mention the Lebanese file and that provides for non-interference in the affairs of other states.”The opposing camp also referred to comments by Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs Faisal bin Farhan, who said that “Lebanon requires a Lebanese rapprochement, instead of a Saudi-Iranian rapprochement.” Mikati, who is visiting the Vatican on Wednesday, discussed the presidential file during a private meeting with Al-Rahi as well as the implications of the ongoing political conflict. After the meeting, Mikati said: “There’s a consensus on the need to elect a president as soon as possible, to regulate the public work and the functioning of constitutional institutions.”
Mikati added: “Crises cannot be resolved without reaching a political solution that allows the parliament to carry out its natural role and opens the way for the formation of a fully constitutional cabinet.”MP Marwan Hamadeh, member of the Democratic Gathering party, was surprised by the degree of optimism that Lebanese officials were expressing, including Mikati. He asked: “What relief is Mikati talking about? Was he referring to the dollar rate of 100,000 Lebanese pounds, or the deterioration of the state sectors?”Hamadeh added: “There are no new developments in the presidential file and the stances are still the same in this regard. The Arab and international stance calls for the election of a sovereign president, who is accepted by all the internal components and the international community and able to restore Lebanon’s sovereignty and institutional functions, so he can be welcomed by everyone.”Head of the Free Patriotic Movement Gebran Bassil heavily criticized Mikati last week for failing to sign a naturalization decree for people requesting Lebanese nationality, including Syrian businessmen. Mikati responded to critics by calling for “the election of a president as soon as possible.” The Lebanese Council of Muftis announced on Monday at Dar El-Fatwa, headed by the Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdel Latif Derian, said it “upholds the coexistence provided for in the constitution and the Taif Agreement, abides by the rules of fraternal relations with Arab countries, and safeguards common interests with them.” The council warned against the “continuation of the presidential vacuum, as it exposes Lebanon to unnecessary risks.”It denounced “the repeated attacks targeting the premiership, leading to a new strife under the pretext of prerogatives.”

LIC Welcomes UN Human Rights Council Statement
Regarding the 2020 Beirut Port Explosion
For Immediate Release-March 10th, 2023
The Lebanese Information Center in the U.S. (LIC) welcomes the UN Human Rights Council (HRC) March 7th statement on the 2020 Beirut port explosion. The UN HRC calls on the Lebanese government to uphold the rights of the victims, safeguard the independence and impartiality of the judiciary, and respect the rights of the Lebanese people to peacefully seek justice and accountability. The UN HRC also voiced concern over systemic obstruction, interference, and intimidation that have derailed the inquiry and stressed the need for a swift and impartial investigation.
The LIC expresses its deepest gratitude to the 38 countries that signed the statement for their empathy and commitment to the Lebanese people. The LIC specifically recognizes the Australian delegation, who drafted the statement, for their leadership.
LIC has been calling for an impartial and credible investigation into the Beirut port blast since September 2020 due to concerns that the judicial process would be subject to political interference. A campaign of legal and unofficial harassment proved those fears correct as the government-led investigation was suspended in December 2021 following a barrage of lawsuits, refusal of officials to respond for questioning, and several incidents of violence and intimidation. Faced with this political and judicial domestic reality, the LIC, alongside many humanitarian, legal and political groups, has called for an international probe to uncover the truth and ensure justice for the victims of the 2020 explosion and their families.
LIC President Dr. Joseph Gebeily recently returned from a trip to Lebanon where he met with families of the victims, members of parliament who signed the petition for a UN fact-finding mission, several human rights organizations, and foreign diplomats, including the Australian Ambassador. In response to the UN HRC statement, Dr. Joseph Gebeily said, “This is an important and welcome move by the international community and one step closer to providing the answers needed by the victims and their families.”
“This statement puts the Lebanese government on notice,” he continued,” regarding the constant interference that has obstructed the investigation. The LIC will persist in pressing for an internationally-led fact finding mission, especially that the Lebanese government has been failing to conduct a credible, sanctioned, and transparent investigation into the explosion.”
The LIC noted that while the U.S. Ambassador to the UN HRC delivered a strong speech demanding justice for the victims, the U.S. delegation refrained from signing the HRC statement. Nevertheless, we still count on the U.S. to join like-minded peers such as Australia, Canada, France and the UK, in future actions in support of greater transparency, accountability, and justice for this tragedy.
The Lebanese people, especially those who were directly affected by the disaster, deserve answers for what happened in August 2020. This is an important step toward uncovering the truth and bringing accountability back to the country. The LIC thanks the UN HRC and will continue pushing for justice and transparency.
LEBANESE INFORMATION CENTER
1101 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Suite 300, Washington, DC 20004
Phone: 202-505-4542 . Fax: 202-318-8409
Email: lic@licus.org www.licus.org

A circle from Frangieh to Frangieh in Lebanon
Sami Moubayed, Special to Gulf News/ March 13/2023
Suleiman Frangieh gets important backing and sets sights on the presidential palace
In 2016, Suleiman Frangieh Jr. was Hezbollah’s choice for the Lebanese presidency. He was then asked to wait, at the very last moment, given the party’s need to accommodate its other Christian ally, Michel Aoun. The ageing Aoun was 83; many thought he would not live long enough to see the end of his term, when becoming president in October 2016. Frangieh was much younger, at 51.
Hezbollah reasoned that he could wait until the next elections took place in 2022. They never did and since Aoun’s departure from Baabda Palace last October the presidential seat has been left vacant.
Three names have since been making the rounds to replace Aoun: his son-in-law Gibran Bassil, Army Commander Joseph Aoun, and Frangieh. Eleven voting sessions took place since then — which all ended in failure — mainly because neither Hezbollah was willing to bend on Lebanon’s next president, and nor was Bassil. Nasrallah was pushing for Frangieh without directly naming him, while Bassil was insisting that only he and no other would succeed Michel Aoun as president. On 6 March 2023, Nasrallah formally announced his support for Frangieh’s nomination.
Bassil’s position
To some, that will really advance Frangieh’s candidacy, but it’s still not enough to make him president. Electing a president requires a 65 out of 128 votes in Parliament. The two Shiite parties, Hezbollah and Amal who both support Frangieh have a combined bloc of 30 MPs. Frangieh himself has a tiny bloc of 2 MPs. Any voting cannot happen before they secure double the votes that they presently have. Reportedly, Prime Minister Najib Mikati and his Azm Movement will vote for Frangieh as well, and so will independent Sunnis and those affiliated with the Hezbollah-led 8 March Coalition. Unless he is swayed with some kind of deal, Gibran Bassil still says that he will never vote for Frangieh, and nor do any of the 21 MPs within his orbit. That deal would have to nothing less than promise from Nasrallah that he would become Lebanon’s next president, post-Frangieh. It means that Bassil would have to wait for another six years, just like Frangieh did in 2016-2022. And yet, there are other problems associated with Bassil which have been brushed under the rug and would prevent him from becoming president, whether now or in the future. One of them is that he is not very popular among mainstream Christians, nor among Lebanon’s political elite. Second is the fact that he is sanctioned by the US since 2019.
Gibran Bassil still says that he will never vote for Frangieh, and nor do any of the 21 MPs within his orbit
A family history
Born on 18 October 1965, Suleiman Frangieh Junior is scion of a leading Maronite feudal family of landowners-turned-politicians since Ottoman times. Suleiman’s grandfather and namesake, Suleiman Senior, was president of Lebanon between 1970-1976. In the late 1950s, he fled arrest for his role in an uprising against then-president Camille Chamoun, taking refuge in Syria. And it was in Damascus where he met a young air force pilot named Hafez Al Assad; they became friends and went on to become presidents of their countries within a span of two months in 1970 (Frangieh was elected in September, Assad came to power in November). The two families have been close ever since. In June 1979, tragedy befell the Frangieh family when early during the civil war Suleiman Sr.’s son, Tony, was gunned down, along with his wife and baby girl, in a brutal massacre carried out by rival Maronite militia-leader Samir Gagegea.
President Frangieh had been out of office for nearly two years by then, and fearing for the life of his grandson and namesake, sent him to Damascus where he stayed at the home of President Assad, becoming a good friend of his children.
From Frangieh Sr. to Junior
Suleiman Frangieh remained loyal to Syria throughout the war, nominating himself for president for a second term in August 1988. He died in 1992 and leadership of the family, and Zghorta, went to his twenty-seven-year-grandson. Frangieh Jr. had already been promoted through the ranks of Marada — the Frangieh’s family’s militia — and inserted into parliament to replace his slain father. Suleiman Frangieh Junior would also serve as minister in various capacities during the years 1990-1996, when he was chosen for the portfolio of health under Rafik Al Hariri. He was also minister of interior at the time of Hariri’s assassination on 14 February 2005. Unlike many former Syrian allies, his position did not change with the exodus of Syrian troops from Lebanon in mid-2005, nor after outbreak of the Syrian conflict in 2011.
Walid Jumblatt is expected to back Frangieh for the presidential bid
Frangieh today
When the civil war ended, Frangieh surrendered his militia’s arms and transformed it into a political party that seen has been solidly allied to Hezbollah. But it was always a small party when compared to Samir Gagegea’s Lebanese Forces, which controls 19 seats in the present parliament, or the Free Patriotic Movement of Gibran Bassil. The crux of its influence is the backing of Hezbollah, although Frangieh is also on good terms with various other players in Lebanese politics, including ex-Prime Minister Saad Al Hariri, who retired from politics in January 2022. Hariri still has a say in Lebanese politics, and he wouldn’t mind Frangieh for president. Nor would the incumbent premier Najib Mikati, who has reportedly been promised to keep the premiership under a Frangieh presidency, along with the powerful Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, who after years of tension with Hezbollah, has been slowly mending relations since 2022.
It was actually Jumblatt’s father Kamal, whose final word turned the tides in favour of Suleiman Senior, making him president back in 1970. And it might be Walid Jumblatt who will make Frangieh’s bid in 2023, if his bloc of eight MPs votes in favour of Frangieh.
Although the man is not an immediate favourite for Mikati, Hariri, or Jumblatt, they would prefer seeing him as president than Gibran Bassil, whom they all distrust.
**Sami Moubayed is a historian and former Carnegie scholar. He is also author of Under the Black Flag: At the frontier of the New Jihad.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 13-14/2023
Returning to frontline, Ukrainian Leopard crews see their 'cat' as game-changer
* Ukrainians end training in Germany with live-firing exercise
* EU commander says Leopard tanks key for Kyiv's spring offensive
* "Other units will feel safer when fighting alongside the cat"
By Sabine Siebold/Reuters/March 13/2023
- U krainian troops fired the 120mm guns of their Leopard tanks at a German shooting range on Monday, a few days before they were due to return home with the "cats" they hope will give Kyiv a breakthrough in what has become a grinding war of attrition. Muzzle flashes could be seen, and dust clouds where the shells hit the ground, as four tanks fought their way through a muddy dip to what was marked as an enemy position two kilometres away, destroying wooden pop-up targets as they rattled along. On a hill overlooking the drills at Bergen training ground in northern Germany, the commander of the EU training mission for Ukraine had to raise his voice to avoid being drowned out by the roaring gunshots as he praised the Leopard's benefits. Vice Admiral Herve Blejean told reporters Kyiv's forces were facing the most dangerous phase since Russia's invasion more than a year ago, holding the frontline against what he described as a "tsunami" of more than 300,000 Russian combatants. "When they will be able to involve better tanks like (the) Leopard, they will be able to break through and to look at counter-attacking," Blejean said, adding he was confident the German tanks would be a key element in Kyiv's spring offensive. Germany agreed in January to supply the tanks, regarded as one of the best in the West's arsenal, overcoming misgivings about sending heavy weaponry that Kyiv sees as crucial to defeat Russia's invasion but Moscow casts as a dangerous provocation. Last week, Defence Minister Boris Pistorius stated all 18 modern Leopard 2 A6 tanks pledged by Berlin would reach Ukraine before the end of March.
FIGHTING ALONGSIDE THE 'CAT'
In Bergen, the German trainers were happy with the Ukrainians' performance over their six-week crash course.
"Hitting more than 80% (of the targets in the exercise), that's an excellent result after such a short time," said one of the trainers who only gave his first name of Joerg. Still, the Ukrainians had to abandon some of their old tactics. "At the start, the Ukrainian crews wanted to turn the tanks around (instead of reversing)," said Colonel Michael Sack, attributing this to the fact that Russian tanks can only reverse slowly which makes them vulnerable to hostile fire. The Leopard, however, can drive backwards fast while firing as it keeps facing the enemy with its more heavily armoured front, he argued. The Ukrainians also trained in the dark, to make best use of what is seen as the Leopard's superior night vision equipment. Asked about his feelings as the Ukrainians prepared to return to the battlefield, Joerg said it was a question of professionalism to blend out emotions. "We are soldiers. Of course, they are not heading for the training ground but directly into battle. But that's exactly what motivates us so much in doing this training," he said. One of the Ukrainian gunners rejected any talk of fear but warned the Russians to brace for the arrival of the Leopard. "A friend in Ukrainian intelligence told me the Russians are very nervous because of the modern Leopard 2, as they well should be," he said, wearing a scarf pulled up over his face and orange-tinted ballistic glasses to hide his identity. "The Leopard tanks will enable us to make the breakthroughs that we need. And other Ukrainian units will feel safer, too, when they fight alongside the cat."

Russia's air defence downs four missiles in Belgorod region - governor
(Reuters)/Mon, March 13, 2023
At least one person was wounded in the southern Russian region of Belgorod on Monday after Russian forces shot down four missiles over the region and its administrative centre Belgorod, the governor of the region bordering Ukraine said. "At this time one person is known to have been injured," Vyacheslav Gladkov, said on the Telegram messaging app. "There is also damage from rocket debris in two residential buildings." He did not say who he thought had fired the missiles but in the past he has accused Ukrainian forces on the other side of the nearby border of similar attacks. Belgorod borders Ukraine's Kharkiv region and has repeatedly come under fire since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine a year ago. Ukraine almost never publicly claims responsibility for attacks inside Russia and on Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine.

Bloodshed in Bakhmut: Russia Suffers Potentially Deadliest Day Yet in Ukraine
Brett Bachman, Dan Ladden-Hall/The Daily Beast/March 13, 2023
Both sides fighting over the desolate ruins of the city of Bakhmut in Ukraine have reported inflicting huge numbers of deaths on each other as the bitter bloodshed appears to have escalated to previously unseen levels. On Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that over 1,100 Russian fighters had been killed in the city in less than a week. He claimed that Moscow had sustained a further 1,500 “sanitary losses”—meaning casualties injured badly enough to be unable to continue fighting. A separate video released by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claimed 1,090 troops had been killed on Saturday alone, possibly making it the single deadliest day for Russian forces since the beginning of the invasion in February 2022. Military spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun also said Ukrainian forces took out eight tanks, seven armored vehicles and four artillery systems. Russia’s defense ministry released its own statement Sunday claiming that more than 220 Ukrainian troops had been killed in the Donetsk region over the previous 24 hours. Neither side’s figures have been independently verified. Over the weekend, British intelligence released updates on the battle which said that Russia’s mercenary Wagner Group forces had seized control of most of the eastern area of Bakhmut, and that the Bakhmutka River running through the center of the town now had become the new frontline. Ukrainian forces still hold the west of the town and had destroyed bridges over the river, leaving a strip of open ground through which Russian forces would have to pass to gain further ground. “With Ukrainian units able to fire from fortified buildings to the west, this area has become a killing zone, likely making it highly challenging for Wagner forces attempting to continue their frontal assault westwards,” a British intelligence update read.
In comments released by his press service, Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin on Sunday described the situation as “tough, very tough,” adding: “The closer we are to the center of the city, the harder the fighting... The Ukrainians throw in endless reserves. But we are advancing and we will be advancing.”
Despite international analysts deeming Bakhmut to be of little strategic importance, capturing the city would inch the Kremlin closer to its aim of seizing the entire Donbas region—one of the four areas of Ukraine that the Kremlin announced it had annexed in September. Bakhmut has also become something of a point of personal pride for Prigozhin, with the mercenary chief previously criticizing top Russian military officials for insufficiently supporting Wagner’s efforts to take the town. But exactly how close his forces are to taking Bakhmut remains uncertain. On Saturday, the Institute for the Study of War cast doubt on how much progress Russian forces are making in the city. “Ukrainian and Russian sources continue to report heavy fighting in the city, but Wagner Group fighters are likely becoming increasingly pinned in urban areas, such as the AZOM industrial complex, and are therefore finding it difficult to make significant advances,” the Washington-based think-tank said in a report.

Georgian PM tells Ukraine's Zelenskiy not to meddle in his country
(Reuters)/March 12, 2023
Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili accused Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of meddling in his country's political situation by commenting on protests there last week, prompting an angry response from Kyiv. During the protests against a "foreign agents" law that critics said signalled an authoritarian shift in Georgia, Zelenskiy thanked protesters for waving Ukrainian flags, saying it showed respect, and he wished Georgians "democratic success".Last Friday, Georgia's parliament dropped the bill, which had threatened to harm Tbilisi's bid for closer ties with Europe. Critics had said it was inspired by a 2012 Russian law that has been used widely to crack down on dissent in Russia. "When a person who is at war... responds to the destructive action of several thousand people here in Georgia, this is direct evidence that this person is involved, motivated to make something happen here too, to change," Garibashvili said in an interview with the Georgian IMEDI television broadcast on Sunday, referring to Zelenskiy. "I want to wish everyone a timely end to this war, and peace," Garibashvili added. However, Ukraine's foreign ministry spokesperson Oleh Nikolenko accused Garibashvili of repeating "Russian propaganda" by suggesting that Kyiv sought to draw Georgia into its conflict with Moscow. "We categorically reject such claims, which have nothing to do with reality. The Georgian authorities are looking for an enemy in the wrong place," Nikolenko said on Facebook on Monday.
"Ukraine has been and will remain a friend of the Georgian people, whom we do not wish to stop (in their task of) building a European future."Despite Garibashvili's comments, Georgian public opinion is strongly pro-Ukrainian and anti-Russian. Georgia fought its own brief war with Russia in 2008 over the status of two Moscow-backed breakaway regions, Azkhazia and South Ossetia. Georgia and Ukraine both aspire to join the European Union one day.

Iran Has Pardoned 22,000 Arrested During Protests, Says Judiciary Chief
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 13 March, 2023
Iranian judicial authorities have pardoned 22,000 people who took part in anti-government protests, judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei said on Monday, according to the official IRNA news agency. State media reported early last month that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had pardoned "tens of thousands" of prisoners including some arrested in the protests in a deadly crackdown on dissent. "So far 82,000 people have been pardoned, including 22,000 people who participated in (the) protests," Ejei said. He did not specify over what period the pardons were granted or if or when the people had been charged. Iran has been swept by protests since the death of a young Iranian Kurdish woman in the custody of the country's morality police last September. Iranians from all walks of life have taken part, marking one of the boldest challenges to the republic since the 1979 revolution.

Iran Arrests 100 People Over Female Students’ Poisoning
Paris - London –Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 13 March, 2023
The Iranian authorities announced the arrest of more than 100 people as part of an investigation into a series of poisonings of thousands of schoolgirls that sparked outrage in the country. In a statement published by the official IRNA news agency, the Interior Ministry said that more than 100 suspects were arrested for their involvement in the recent school accidents. The ministry did not give details about the people who were arrested in several governorates, including in Tehran and Qom (north), East and West Azerbaijan (northwest), and the provinces of Kurdistan and Hamadan (west). Among those arrested, the ministry said, were “individuals who have had hostile motives, tried to trigger fear and horror among people and students, shut down schools, and created pessimism toward” the Iranian government. They would remain “under investigation until required assurances are achieved,” the statement added, noting that the number of poisoning cases at girls’ schools across the country had been decreasing “over the past several days.” The statement pointed at possible links to the Iranian opposition group that Tehran considers a “terrorist” organization, the People's Mujahedin of Iran or Mujahedeen-e-Khalq (MEK). Shahin Gobadi, Paris-based spokesman for the MEK, told AFP that the accusations were “a ridiculous show to cover up the role of the institutions under Khamenei’s command in this big crime” and urged Tehran to accept an international investigation. “The crime of poisoning thousands of schoolgirls... is the work of no one but the clerical regime and its security and repressive apparatus,” he said in a statement to AFP. This is the second statement issued by the authorities in a week. On Tuesday, Iran announced arrests in 5 governorates. Deputy Interior Minister Majid Mirahmadi accused “the perpetrators of the girls’ poisoning” of wanting to “close schools” and “blame the system” in order to “revive dormant riots”.

Iran Pledges Achieving Regional Peace, Stability
London – Tehran – Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 13 March, 2023
Two days after Beijing brokered an agreement between Riyadh and Tehran to resume relations, Tehran pledged “to use regional energies to achieve and consolidate comprehensive peace and stability.” Maj. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for military affairs, described the Iranian-Saudi agreement as “a political earthquake.”Safavi voiced hope that the region will progress toward long-term security and peace because of the Iran-Saudi agreement. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said the agreement resulted from an “initiative” from Tehran and an exchange of ideas between the Chinese and Iranian sides. “For months now, there have been thoughts about resolving problems with some countries in the region, including Saudi Arabia,” Amir-Abdollahian told an Iranian news channel. The top Iranian diplomat also revealed that he had held initial talks with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan on the sidelines of the “Baghdad 2” conference in Jordan in January. Amir-Abdollahian said he received “assurances” from Saudi Arabia about the Kingdom’s preparedness to restore ties to their natural course. Moreover, Chinese President Xi Jinping had offered Saudi Arabia the Iranian initiative, added the minister. Amir-Abdollahian’s comments came at a time when the Iranian diplomatic apparatus issued a statement defending the regional approach of President Ibrahim Raisi’s government. The statement said the Iranian government “has taken an important step in the context of the practical application of the doctrine of balanced foreign policy, dynamic diplomacy, and intelligent interaction.”“The Beijing agreement was reached to put relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia on their natural path,” the statement added. According to the official IRNA news agency, the statement added that Tehran is on the path of “using regional energies, and is seriously determined to achieve and consolidate comprehensive peace and stability, and secure the common and collective interests of the governments and peoples of the region.”

Libya Announces Arrangements to Reopen Iranian Embassy in Tripoli
Cairo - Jamal Gawhar/ Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 13 March, 2023
The Libyan Foreign and International Cooperation Ministry of Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah’s interim Government of National Unity (GNU) announced on Sunday that efforts are underway to resume the work of the Iranian embassy in the capital, Tripoli. Foreign and International Cooperation Minister Najla Al-Mangoush met with Iran's ambassador to Libya, Mohamed Reza, to discuss ways to strengthen bilateral relations. On its Facebook page, the Ministry wrote that Al-Mangoush tackled with Reza the activation of the joint economic committee between their countries and arrangements for the reopening of the Iranian embassy in Tripoli. The meeting tackled regional and international developments. Al-Magnoush said Libya welcomes the reestablishment of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, saying the agreement they reached last week will be significant for the stability of the region. The Iranian embassy in Tripoli closed its doors in wake of the February 2011 revolution, following remarks by former mufti Sadiq al-Ghariani who accused Tehran of “spreading Shiism in Libya.”In February 2015, the residence of the Iranian ambassador was attacked by a car bomb. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack that did not leave heavy damage.

UN’s envoy to Syria holds talks with Egyptian foreign minister and Arab League chief
Arab News/March 13/2023
They discussed the latest developments in the Syrian crisis and the aftermath of the devastating earthquakes in February
CAIRO: Sameh Shoukry, the Egyptian minister of foreign affairs, met the UN’s special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, in Cairo on Monday. Ahmed Abu Zeid, a spokesperson for the ministry, wrote in a message posted on Twitter that there is “continuous coordination between Egypt and the UN for advancing the political solution in Syria and alleviating the suffering of the Syrian brotherly people.”Shoukry pledged Egypt’s full support for Pedersen’s efforts to bring about peace in Syria, and they agreed to continue their consultations and coordination. The minister reiterated the importance of reviving the political process, within the framework of Egypt’s desire to resolve the Syrian crisis as quickly as possible, in accordance with international resolutions. He also briefed the UN envoy about the aid and support provided for Syria following the devastating earthquakes that hit the country and neighboring Turkiye in February. Earlier on Monday, Arab League spokesperson Jamal Rushdi said the organization’s secretary-general, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, held talks with Pedersen within the framework of ongoing consultations between the League and the UN, during which the latest developments in Syria were discussed. On the specific issue of Syria’s return to the Arab League, Rushdi said it is too early to talk about that happening. He added that Aboul Gheit and Pedersen emphasized the importance of continuing efforts to break the political stalemate in the Syrian crisis. Shoukry visited Syria in February, following the earthquakes, to convey a message of solidarity from Cairo. It was the first visit to Syria by an Egyptian foreign minister since the civil war began in 2011.“The goal of my visit to Damascus is primarily humanitarian,” Shoukry said at the time.

Turkish opposition making gains in opinion polls ahead of elections
Arab News/March 13/2023
Dr. Kaya Genc, a historian and author of several books on Turkish affairs, told Arab News: “[Kemal Kilicdaroglu] is no romantic rebel
ANKARA: New opinion polls show the opposition candidate leading the presidential race in Turkiye, with the opposing bloc — Nation Alliance — having a probable majority in the parliament after the elections. A new survey by Aksoy Research showed that the presidential candidate of the Turkish opposition, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has surpassed rival, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, by more than 10 percentage points ahead of the May 14 elections. The poll suggests Kilicdaroglu would defeat Erdogan by receiving 55.6 percent of the votes. The same survey showed the opposition bloc at least six points ahead of the ruling coalition, at 44.1 percent of the votes, while the voting share of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party, which remains outside of the two blocs, has stayed above 10 percent, the threshold to enter parliament. Piar Research shows Kilicdaroglu winning 57.1 percent of the vote as opposed to Erdogan’s 42.9, with the main opposition bloc on 46.4 percent of the votes against the ruling bloc’s 37.8. Another poll, which was conducted by Alf Research, showed Kilicdaroglu on 55.1 percent and Erdogan at 44.9 percent. The same survey revealed the main opposition bloc garnering 43.5 percent of votes, and the HDP receiving 11.3 percent. These rates are more or less supported by ORC’s recent research which showed Kilicdaroglu ahead with 56.8 against Erdogan (43.2 percent). The mismanagement of the earthquakes in February and the rising inflation rates have harmed the chances of the ruling government and Erdogan. The endorsement of the HDP is seen as crucial in the election with its 10 percent share of the vote, and Kilicdaroglu has announced he will meet with the party soon. The former co-leader of the party, Selahattin Demirtas, has openly invited the opposition candidate to visit the pro-Kurdish party.
“I will meet the valuable co-chairs of the HDP. My friends are planning the visit,” Kilicdaroglu said during an interview with the T24 website on Monday. However, there are concerns over the future of the HDP as a recent ruling by the court may result in the party being shut down over its alleged ties to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party. Dr. Kaya Genc, a historian and author of several books on Turkish affairs, told Arab News: “[Kemal Kilicdaroglu] is no romantic rebel. He’s a savvy operator, and has convinced the pious that he’s their candidate too, and that he’s the leader of the oppressed in Turkiye. “His efforts have so far paid off. His partner in the alliance, Meral Aksener, alongside right-wing-leaning mayors, will convince voters who believe in the concept of a powerful state, to support Kilicdaroglu as well. “The opposition alliance has the momentum now and I expect its lead in the polls to grow exponentially in the next few weeks.” Meanwhile, Turkish Workers’ Party chair Erkan Bas said on Sunday that if his voters supported Kilicdaroglu in the first round, his chances to win would be vastly increased. Kilicdaroglu last week paid another visit to the earthquake-hit zone and slept in a tent, in what was construed as a move to show his empathy with victims of the disaster.

UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria documents failure to protect country’s civilians
Arab News/March 13/2023
Syrian government, international community failed to deliver aid through available route within the first week following recent earthquakes, report reveals. Commission chairman cited Israeli attack on Aleppo International Airport, which serves as a conduit for humanitarian aid. LONDON: The UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Syria released its latest report documenting ongoing human rights violations throughout the country over the last six months of 2022. The commission also said that the response to the recent massive earthquakes that struck the country was characterized by the failures of the Syrian government and international community to secure the delivery of urgent and life-saving aid to the northwest part of the country. The commission highlighted that parties to the Syrian conflict, including the UN, failed to reach an agreement on an immediate cessation of hostilities and the facilitation of humanitarian aid through any available route in the critical first week following the earthquake. “Syrians now need a comprehensive ceasefire that is fully respected, for civilians — including aid workers — to be safe. Incomprehensibly, due to the cruelty and cynicism of parties to the conflict, we are now investigating fresh attacks even in the very areas devastated by the earthquakes,” Paulo Pinheiro, chair of the commission, said. Pinheiro cited last week’s reported Israeli attack on Aleppo International Airport, which serves as a conduit for humanitarian aid. “We are currently investigating several allegations of parties to the conflict deliberately obstructing humanitarian aid to the affected communities,” said Commissioner Hanny Megally. “As aid is now finally increasing, it is more important than ever that they consent to impartial humanitarian relief being delivered unimpeded to those in need, whether through cross-border or cross-line modalities,” he added. Entire communities have been destroyed, with the UN estimating that some five million people require basic shelter and non-food assistance in the Syrian part of the earthquake zone. Already before the Feb. 6 earthquakes, over 15 million Syrians — more than at any point since the start of the conflict — needed humanitarian assistance. In government-controlled areas, the report documented rising insecurity in Dara’a, Suwayda and Hama, as well as continued arbitrary detention, torture, ill-treatment, and enforced disappearances. Seizures, auctions, and restrictions on access to property were examples of property rights violations. Civilians in the earthquake-affected northwest have been particularly vulnerable to deadly attacks in recent months. Government forces used cluster munitions to strike densely populated displacement camps in Idlib governorate inside the opposition-held area in November, killing seven civilians and injuring at least 60 more. Furthermore, the commission discovered that conditions for safe and dignified return are still lacking. During the reporting period, some Syrians were denied return outright, while others were arbitrarily arrested or barred from returning to government-controlled areas.

China's Xi wants bigger global role after Saudi-Iran deal
SourceAssociated Press/March 13/2023
President Xi Jinping called Monday for China to play a bigger role in managing global affairs after Beijing scored a diplomatic coup as the host of talks that produced an agreement by Saudi Arabia and Iran to reopen diplomatic relations. Xi gave no details of the ruling Communist Party's plans in a speech to China's ceremonial legislature. But Beijing has been increasingly assertive since he took power in 2012 and called for changes in the International Monetary Fund and other entities it says fail to reflect the desires of developing countries. China should "actively participate in the reform and construction of the global governance system" and promote "global security initiatives," said Xi, the country's most powerful leader in decades. That will add "positive energy to world peace and development," Xi said. On Friday, Xi was named to another term in the ceremonial presidency after breaking with tradition in October and awarding himself a third-five year term as general secretary of the ruling party, putting himself on track to become leader for life. The National People's Congress on Sunday cemented Xi's dominance by endorsing the appointment of his loyalists as premier and other government leaders in a once-a-decade change. Xi has sidelined potential rivals and loaded the top ranks of the ruling party with his supporters. The new premier, Li Qiang, tried Monday to reassure entrepreneurs but gave no details of possible plans to improve conditions after Xi's government spent the past decade building up state companies that control banking, energy, steel, telecoms and other industries. Li's comments echoed promises by other Chinese leaders over the past six months to support entrepreneurs who generate jobs and wealth. They have vowed to simplify regulations and taxes but have given no indication they plan to rein in state companies that entrepreneurs complain drain away their profits.
The ruling party will "treat enterprises of all types of ownership equally" and "support the development and growth of private enterprises," Li said. "Our leading cadres at all levels must sincerely care about and serve private enterprises," he said. Chinese officials earlier indicated anti-monopoly and data security crackdowns that knocked tens of billions of dollars off the stock market value of e-commerce giant Alibaba Group and other tech companies were ending. But entrepreneurs were rattled anew in February when a star banker who played a leading role in tech deals disappeared. Bao Fan's company said he was "cooperating in an investigation" but gave no details. Li said Beijing will make a priority of job creation as it tries to revive economic growth that sank to 3% last year, the second-lowest level in decades. This year's official growth target is "around 5%." The premier expressed confidence China can cope as its workforce shrinkage. The number of potential workers age 15 to 59 has fallen by more than 5% from its 2011 peak, an unusually abrupt decline for a middle-income country. Li said that while China is losing its "demographic dividend" of young workers, better education means it is gaining a "talent dividend." He said some 15 million people still enter the workforce every year. "Abundant human resources is still China's outstanding advantage," he said. Abroad, Beijing also has built on China's growing heft as the second-largest economy to promote trade and construction initiatives that Washington, Tokyo, Moscow and New Delhi worry will expand its strategic influence at their expanse.
Those include the multibillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative to construct ports, railways and other trade-related infrastructure across an arc of countries from the South Pacific through Asia to Africa and Europe. China also is promoting trade and security initiatives. Xi's government rattled the United States and Australia in early 2022 when it signed an agreement with the Solomon Islands that would allow Chinese navy ships and security forces to be stationed in the South Pacific nation. The foreign minister, Qin Gang, warned Washington last week of possible "conflict and confrontation" if the United States doesn't change course in relations that have been strained by conflicts over Taiwan, human rights, Hong Kong, security and technology. Xi called Monday for faster technology development and more self-reliance in a speech loaded with nationalistic terms. He referred eight times to "national rejuvenation," or restoring China to its rightful place as an economic, cultural and political leader. He said that before the ruling party took power in 1949, China was "reduced to a semi-colonial, semi-feudal country, subject to bullying by foreign countries.""We have finally washed away the national humiliation, and Chinese people are the master of their own destiny," Xi said. "The Chinese nation has stood up, become rich and is becoming strong."Xi also called for the country to "unswervingly achieve" the goal of "national reunification," a reference to Beijing's claim that Taiwan, the self-ruled island democracy, is part of its territory and is obliged to unite with China, by force if necessary.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 13-14/2023
With Saudi-Iran diplomacy, is China pushing the US aside in the Middle East?
Simon Henderson/The Hill/March 13/2023
In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, Wang Yi, China’s most senior diplomat, center, presides over a closed meeting between Iran, led by Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, at right, and Saudi Arabia, led by Saudi national security adviser Musaad bin Mohammed al-Aiban, at left, in Beijing on March 11, 2023. Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to reestablish diplomatic relations and reopen embassies after seven years of tensions. The major diplomatic breakthrough negotiated with China lowers the chance of armed conflict between the Mideast rivals, both directly and in proxy conflicts around the region.
News, particularly the international variety, is usually just either good or bad. But on March 10, at around 8 a.m. Washington, D.C. time, news emerged that arguably qualified for the description of “jaw-dropping”: After seven years without diplomatic relations, it was announced that Saudi Arabia and Iran were to “normalize” relations. And China is the Cupid that brought the two sides together.
I happened to have two meetings that morning with people with whom I often chat about Iran. Neither had heard the news until I told them, and both initially thought I might be kidding them. I could see each trying to process the information, working out what it may mean.
That exercise about the implications of the development will probably keep a sizable portion of Washington’s foreign policy community busy this coming week. That is not to say that some theories have not been expounded already, either in newspapers or on the internet. The nation’s capital is blessed with fast thinkers (some of whom probably want to spin the information in their favor).
The prevailing analysis seems to be that Riyadh has decided to work with Tehran because of the antipathy and lack of support Saudi Arabia receives from the Biden administration and Democrats in Congress. The latest grievance is apparently Washington’s lackadaisical response to the news that Iran is enriching uranium to a level just short of 84 percent, a level very close to bomb grade. What, then, has happened to White House promises that Iran will not be allowed to make a nuclear bomb?
Until last week, the expected Saudi response would be that the kingdom would quickly follow suit if Iran showed it has or could make a nuclear bomb — the oft-quoted comment that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the effective ruler, gave once to CBS News. Now, apparently the Saudi view has flipped, showing a willingness to withdraw from confronting Iran and perhaps even move toward “sharing” the Gulf with it — previously just a throwaway, much-ridiculed idea in an interview that then-President Obama gave to The Atlantic magazine in 2016.
A more cautious interpretation of the meaning of the normalization, scheduled to take place in the next two months, is that it is part of a carefully choreographed peace deal in Yemen, where Iranian-supported Houthi rebels occupy the capital Sana, despite Saudi Arabia’s determined, and expensive (both financially and in terms of humanitarian costs), efforts to evict them.
The incredulity that greeted the news extends to China’s role. Hitherto, apart from a mercenary attitude to the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war, when it supplied ammunition to both sides, Beijing had emphasized its commercial rather than diplomatic role in the area. The latest twist to emerge over the weekend is that China wants to organize a summit of all the Gulf countries. One can imagine most of, if not all, the regional states signing up for trade reasons — but what would be the reaction if Beijing said the price for its new role would be discounted oil?
Pragmatism leaves no room for fossil fuels
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These fascinating developments, and possibly more to come, also need to include analytically the other case of “normalization,” which had been absorbing Washington’s attention: the question of if and when Saudi Arabia would normalize relations with Israel. That is now possibly off the menu. It depends much on whether Riyadh really wants a workable, if not good, relationship with Tehran. For Israel, though, the issue of a possible Iranian nuclear weapon still looms large.
Much will become clearer in the next two months, if this show can keep on the road until then.
*Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Follow him on Twitter @shendersongulf.
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3896777-with-saudi-iran-diplomacy-is-china-pushing-the-us-aside-in-the-middle-east/

How optimistic should we be about the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement?
Faisal J. Abbas/Arab News/March 13/2023
Much talk and analysis has been generated by last week’s surprise Chinese-brokered Saudi-Iranian pact, but pundits need to remember that the agreement to restore diplomatic ties and refrain from intervention in each other’s affairs is still in its early days. We cannot expect four decades of Iranian hostility and investment in undermining regional security to disappear overnight.
Nevertheless, it would have been irresponsible and illogical for the Saudi leadership not to give peace a chance. They have much more at stake in this conflict than the leadership in Tehran. If Iran wants to remain in 1979, that is their leadership’s choice. In this country our leadership has Vision 2030, and we aim to diversify our economy, open up new sectors, welcome tourists, and host world-class sporting and entertainment events; we can absolutely do without daily threats from an annoying neighbor.
What has emerged over the past few days is reassuring. Iran’s Foreign Ministry has said that positive vibes with Riyadh could lead to a solution in Yemen, from where the Tehran-backed Houthi militia target Saudi civilians and cities. That is welcome news.
Sources tell me that the Chinese initiative was ignited during President Xi’s visit to the Kingdom last December. So Beijing deserves credit not just for pulling this off, but for pulling it off in a record three months — a testimony to Chinese efficiency.
Beijing deserves credit not just for pulling this off, but for pulling it off in a record three months — a testimony to Chinese efficiency.
I am told that a conversation took place at leadership level in which it was clearly outlined how Iran’s malign activity is threatening China’s national security and other interests. Saudi Arabia exports over 1.7 million barrels of oil a day to China, which is crucial for China to continue functioning and manufacturing. When Iran or its militias strike Saudi oil infrastructure, China is affected too. When Iranian actions threaten maritime security, China can’t receive the oil it needs and its products can’t reach their huge markets in the Middle East.
There is another wasted opportunity for Chinese exports and its Belt and Road Initiative. Imagine if Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen were actively consuming Chinese products. Instead they are dysfunctional, failed states — thanks entirely to Iranian meddling.
As noted here before, China also enjoys a neutral position in the region, with no colonial past or history of aggression. In most Middle East conflicts, Beijing has remained neutral and focused its policies on trade and commerce.
In terms of leverage over Iran, if anyone has that it is China. Beijing has pledged to invest $400 billion in Iran over 25 years, including $280 billion in oil and gas development. China is Iran’s biggest trade partner, and exports nuclear and military technology there. In guaranteeing this agreement Beijing has put a lot at stake in terms of its image as a global superpower, but it also has a lot to gain in credit if the Iranians play ball and stick to the deal.
The question is, will they? The short answer is, time will tell. The long answer is that while the optimist in me would love to see this happen, along with an end to Tehran-backed malign activities in places such as Iraq, Lebanon and Syria, the realist in me has to say that Iran’s track record of adhering to agreements is not reassuring. That is why it makes sense, as has emerged in the past few days, that officials in Riyadh took much longer than those in Tehran to be convinced about the deal.
Armchair experts in Washington need reminding that if this deal sticks and progresses, it would actually serve American interests.
What I don’t get, however, is the skepticism and negativity of some US pundits. These armchair experts in Washington need reminding that if this deal sticks and progresses, it would actually serve American interests. Just think of maritime security in the Red Sea and the Gulf, think of how much it will reduce the cost of American security and military operations, and how many markets it would open up for US manufacturing and jobs.
These skeptics appear to have forgotten that it was Barack Obama — like Joe Biden, a Democrat president — who simplistically said in his notorious 2016 interview with The Atlantic magazine that Saudi Arabia and Iran must learn to “share the neighborhood.” So Riyadh is damned if it listens to US advice, and damned if it doesn’t.
But that genuinely doesn’t matter. For this potentially groundbreaking pact to be successful, and given the positive impact it could have on not just this region but the whole world, the US and the rest of the international community must support it in every way possible. And if it is successful, then credit must be given to the leadership in Riyadh for skilfully playing its cards and implementing the advice of the great Chinese strategist Sun Tzu in The Art of War: “To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.”
• Faisal J. Abbas is the editor in chief of Arab News

Arabs won’t win America’s respect by rebranding as MENA
Ray Hanania/Arab News/March 13/2023
No ethnic group in America suffers more than Arabs. Why do I say that? Because all other groups — such as African Americans, Asian Americans, Hispanic Americans and Native Americans — are protected by anti-discrimination laws and are included in the US Census.
There is a small group of Arab Americans, working with Asian and other ethnic groups, who are pushing to replace “Arab” with “MENA” — people from the Middle East and North Africa — as a compromise to get their ethnicity added as an option in the census. But MENA represents discrimination that goes far beyond Arab. If MENA truly represented Arabs, why not just propose that the word “Arab” be the focus of these efforts? Arabs and Muslims are not attacked because they are “MENA.” If they are attacked, it is because they are Arab and/or Muslim.
Muslims have a broad identity in America. The majority of ethnic minority Muslims are African American and African Americans have many legal protections from discrimination, including an entire array of civil rights laws. Relatively few are Arab, so it is wrong to assume that, when legislation is adopted to confront Islamophobia or when American officials denounce Islamophobia, they are addressing discrimination against Arabs.
Confronting discrimination against Arabs by mainstream America is necessary because it is Arabs and Muslims who are the targets, not “MENA.” Creating a MENA category in the census would only derail efforts to protect Arabs, because their actual ethnicity would still not be defined. However, I understand why some people are pushing for MENA over Arab, as it is a broader category that is interpreted as including Africans, Asians and others.
Creating a MENA category in the census would only derail efforts to protect Arabs, because their actual ethnicity would still not be defined.
Recently in Chicago, a small group of Arabs convinced newly elected Illinois State Rep. Abdelnasser Rashid to introduce a law to direct the state to conduct a disparity study into discrimination faced by the MENA community. Once the study is done, and if MENA is added to the legal definition of minority persons, it could allow MENA individuals — whatever that term means — to qualify for the Minority Business Enterprise scheme. That means they would be eligible for a portion of the billions of dollars in contracts set aside for various minorities, currently including Blacks, Hispanics, Asians and women. But the move is more about politics than improving the rights of Arabs in Illinois.
State Rep. Cyril Nichols last year introduced legislation to designate Arabs as a Minority Business Enterprise category. It has the support of the American Arab Chamber of Commerce, the Arab American Democratic Club and the National Arab American Journalists Association. It also has the support of African American legislators, who put aside any concerns that opening the door to Arabs would dilute the funding African Americans would receive.
However, Nichols was concerned when he saw the Arab community “divide itself” and choose politics over Minority Business Enterprise equality.
Anti-Arab discrimination and political rhetoric happen often, as has already been documented in several studies conducted in Illinois. Another study is not necessary. It is merely a political ploy to divide the Arab American community and separate its members from the word “Arab,” which is considered more offensive to Americans than the milder, more innocuous “MENA.” No one ever attacked me and called me a “dirty MENA.”
Anti-Arab racism will not be ended by rebranding Arabs as MENA. That can only happen when Americans recognize and respect Arabs as Arabs. But Arabs will not get that respect if we attempt to empower ourselves using the diluted term MENA.
• Ray Hanania is an award-winning former Chicago City Hall political reporter and columnist. He can be reached on his personal website at www.Hanania.com. Twitter: @RayHanania

Post-Brexit Britain slams its doors on the outside world
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/March 13/2023
The UK government has determined that because it doesn’t share borders with failed states such as Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan, it is not required to share any humanitarian burden for addressing the global refugee crisis — or even abide by its elementary legal obligations. Post-Brexit Britain appears resolved on retreating within its island shores and trying to forget altogether that the outside world exists.
The UN High Commissioner on Refugees has said that Britain’s proposed new legislation barring entry to asylum-seekers arriving in small boats “amounts to an asylum ban, extinguishing the right to seek refugee protection in the United Kingdom for those who arrive irregularly, no matter how genuine and compelling their claim.”
Of the 90 million people forcibly displaced across the world, the UK granted asylum to 13,000 in 2021 — a tiny fraction of the numbers accepted by many other European countries. States such as Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan, which lack the minimum infrastructure to grapple with such influxes, have nevertheless absorbed well over a million refugees each.
The response of the British public to Ukrainian refugees was largely compassionate, despite the government throwing countless administrative obstacles in the path of potential arrivals. Around the world I encounter many who question why the response was so radically different for those fleeing equally brutal conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Afghanistan and the Congo — or why desperate families travel thousands of miles, risking their lives on unseaworthy boats, only to be locked up and stigmatized as criminals and potential terrorists.
Relentless fearmongering and hyperbole by politicians and the right-wing media, often playing on negative religious and ethnic stereotypes, have turned this issue into a British national obsession. Home Secretary Suella Braverman’s assertions that “100 million” or even “billions” of asylum-seekers could soon be heading for Britain are naked demagoguery.
Braverman’s repugnant solution for those who have fled torture, war, ethnic cleansing and repression is to pack them off to a nation such as Rwanda, with a disastrous human rights record, dysfunctional infrastructure, and a complete lack of qualifications for managing refugee concentration camps on behalf of the UK government.
The reality is that only through the grace of God are any of us not born in war zones, compelled to throw ourselves at the mercy of other nations to avoid our children facing starvation, or worse.
A succession of Conservative governments has calculatedly engineered a “hostile environment” for all migrants. Consequently, Home Office infrastructure for processing asylum cases is, by design, perversely unfit for purpose, with immense backlogs. Instead of processing applicants quickly and repatriating undeserving cases, arrivals are locked up in indefinite limbo. Over 117,000 people were awaiting an initial decision on their asylum case as of mid-2022. This includes doctors, teachers, builders and nurses who could pay taxes and make much-needed contributions to the economy.
While many recent arrivals have been from Albania, this should be addressed as a specific phenomenon, rather than stigmatizing all arrivals as “illegal” and “undeserving” economic migrants. In 2022, 76 percent of cases that were processed were found to be legitimate and were granted asylum.
Neo-isolationist, post-Brexit Britain is a greatly diminished nation, with many sectors badly impacted by the self-harming decision to wrench the national economy out of the European single market.
High-profile ex-footballer Gary Lineker triggered a media frenzy with a tweet comparing the government’s rhetoric on migrants with the language of 1930s Germany. The comparison was not unjustified, given the systematic manner in which government ministers have dehumanized and criminalized refugees, to the extent that many Europeans express the view that it would be better to let immigrants drown at sea. Scandalously, several hundred child asylum-seekers simply disappeared, sometimes abducted directly from hostels, probably into prostitution, abuse and forced labor.
The point is not whether Britain currently resembles Nazi Germany, but rather that Europe risks pursuing the same trajectory. Populist far-right politicians calculatedly whip up fears about immigration, and being “deluged” by non-Christian, non-white foreigners. Neo-fascists and populist authoritarians are today in power in nations such as Italy, Israel and Hungary, with likeminded factions on the ascendant in most European states. Many of these parties praised Britain’s measures against refugees. Threats of terrorism and organized violence from far-right extremism now greatly exceed that from Islamist groups.
The right-wing media cynically manufactures these moral panics to sell newspapers, disingenuously feeding audiences an insatiable diet of exceptional cases in which refugees are portrayed as thieves and delinquents. Donald Trump notoriously launched his US presidential campaign with a diatribe against refugees: “They're bringing drugs. They're bringing crime. They’re rapists…” Recent disclosures from Fox News highlighted how the channel relentlessly peddled falsehoods, knowing they were lying to their audience. Particular hosts deliberately propagated white supremacist narratives, with explosive social consequences.
Neo-isolationist, post-Brexit Britain is a greatly diminished nation, with many sectors badly impacted by the self-harming decision to wrench the national economy out of the European single market. Efforts to consolidate new trade deals have floundered. The halting of the annual influx of tens of thousands of European seasonal workers, the impossibility of exporting perishable goods under cumbersome new regulations, and the fragmentation of supply chains have forced food producers to slash output, giving rise to empty supermarket shelves and rampant inflation. Yet a government that has spent the past 13 years demonizing refugees isn’t going to suddenly look to these arrivals as potential positive contributors to major gaps in the workforce.
I am immensely grateful for the welcome we and our young daughters were given in 1980s Britain when we fled the Lebanon conflict, and I hope that as taxpayers and law-abiding citizens we can be seen as having made a net positive contribution to our host society. Britain’s prime minister, home secretary and several other ministers are themselves from migrant families.
The government abolished the Department for International Development in 2020. Aid to many of the poorest countries was slashed by over 60 percent. About half the much-diminished remaining “overseas development” budget is spent domestically on detaining refugees. As well as being morally indefensible, this and Brexit have caused Britain’s global influence to plunge.
Britain appears unable to comprehend that when aid budgets are curtailed, greater numbers are forced into exile. Leading nations have meanwhile abandoned their conflict-resolution role.
Refugees will keep coming. Numbers of worldwide displaced demographics have relentlessly increased. Conflicts intensify, states disintegrate, governance deteriorates, and worldwide democracy is in retreat. Climate change is rendering sizable regions uninhabitable.
By letting the xenophobia genie out the bottle through incessant dehumanization of refugees, politicians created a rod for their own backs, coming under inexorable pressure to bring net migration toward zero — an impossible goal that would precipitate economic meltdown.
Instead of such self-defeating isolationism, Western governments must take a farsighted approach to factors driving mass migration, so people around the world can enjoy the infinitely preferable option of looking forward to a bright future in their own homelands.
• Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.

Iran-Saudi deal gives Tehran an opportunity to change
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/March 13/2023
In a historic deal brokered by China, Saudi Arabia and Iran, two key regional powers, on Friday agreed to restore ties after a seven-year split and reestablish diplomatic relations. This is a significant development, which can usher in a new era with great potential to reduce tensions and improve peace and security in the Middle East.
First of all, the deal, a key piece of rapprochement in the Middle East, demonstrates the mission of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to bring peace to the region, enhance regional security and make the Middle East a peaceful environment for everyone to prosper. As he previously pointed out about Iran: “They are neighbors forever. We cannot get rid of them, and they can’t get rid of us. So it’s better for both of us to work it out and to look for ways in which we can coexist.”
It is important to point out that the crown prince has established and spearheaded a modern and comprehensive counterterrorism strategy, including the establishment of the Digital Extremism Observatory and a military coalition of 40 Muslim countries. He has also been instrumental in promoting human rights and empowering youths, including by creating more job opportunities for them. The crown prince has shown that he is a role model in terms of fighting terrorism and creating a modern region based on moderate Islamic values.
Many countries around the world, including the US and the UAE, welcomed the Saudi Arabia-Iran agreement. John Kirby, the US National Security Council spokesperson, stated: “Generally speaking, we welcome any efforts to help end the war in Yemen and de-escalate tensions in the Middle East region. De-escalation and diplomacy together with deterrence are key pillars of the policy President (Joe) Biden outlined during his visit to the region last year.” Anwar Gargash, senior government official and adviser to the UAE president, tweeted: “The UAE believes in the importance of positive communication and dialogue among the countries of the region toward consolidating the concepts of good neighborliness and starting from a common ground to build a more stable future for all.”
With genuine and constructive actions, the Iranian leaders can come out of regional isolation and, more importantly, improve their economy
This is a great opportunity for the Iranian government and it is critical that Tehran’s leaders do their part in order to strengthen the deal and genuinely show that they are committed to improving relationships with Saudi Arabia. With genuine and constructive actions, the Iranian leaders can come out of regional isolation and, more importantly, improve their economy, as the deal includes restoring trade between the two nations besides reopening their respective embassies within two months. Iran’s economy has been deteriorating in the last few years, placing significant pressure on the government and the people.
In order to accomplish the important objective of fulfilling its responsibilities and strengthening the deal, the Iranian government can take several critical steps that will have a significant impact not only on Iranian-Saudi relations, but also on regional peace and security.
First of all, the Iranian leaders ought to fully respect Saudi Arabia’s national security interests. For instance, while Yemen does not pose a national security threat to the Iranian government, it does to Saudi Arabia, since it shares a border with the Gulf state. This suggests that the Iranian government ought to order the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to completely halt its military assistance to the Houthis.
In addition, the Iranian government can strengthen the deal by relinquishing its desire to export its revolution. It would be in the interest of Tehran to fundamentally change its core mission, which stipulates: “The Army of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps … will be responsible not only for guarding and preserving the frontiers of the country, but also fulfilling the ideological mission … that is, extending the sovereignty of God’s law throughout the world.”
Finally, in order to enhance regional peace and security and further improve relationships with Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region, the Iranian government can take immediate action to address the critical concerns of regional countries regarding its nuclear ambitions. The Iranian leaders should halt their nuclear program, thereby eliminating the possibility of a nuclear arms race in the region.
In a nutshell, critical diplomatic initiatives have led to the historic Iran-Saudi pact, which is a key development for reducing tensions and enhancing peace and security in the region. It also offers an invaluable opportunity for the Iranian government for de-escalation via diplomacy and embracing friendship with the regional power, Saudi Arabia.
Improved relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia could have a significant impact on the region’s geopolitical and economic landscapes. If the Iranian government fulfills its duties and commits to this historic deal, the region can witness a better future, preserving the economic, political and strategic interests of all parties involved.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point of view

Saudi Arabia, the magnet of peace
Hassan bin Youssef Yassin/Arab News/March 13/2023
Saudi officials have been conspicuously engaged in new efforts for peace in recent weeks, with Minister of Foreign Affairs Prince Faisal bin Farhan visiting both Kyiv and Moscow to offer the Kingdom’s help to mediate an end to the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, National Security Adviser Dr. Musaed bin Mohammed Al-Aiban visited China to bring about the return of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Six years of disputes and turbulence in the Middle East were thereby put behind us, allowing for new approaches to peace, not only in the region but worldwide.
Saudi Arabia has long stood for peace, putting its trusted international standing to use by offering mediation between parties to end disputes. The long civil war in Lebanon only came to an end thanks to tireless Saudi mediation. The region’s most ambitious peace plan was initiated by Saudi Arabia through the Arab League in 2002, offering Israel peace and fully normalized relations with all Arab countries in exchange for a viable Palestinian state. We are a country that seeks to mend fences, for us and for others. Saudi Arabia may also be the only country in the world that can, at a week’s notice, gather all Arab and Muslim leaders in Makkah to promote world peace.
It is no coincidence that all three monotheistic religions have their origins in our region, with a succession of prophets spreading the message of peace across our lands and indeed the world. Our region has also sadly suffered many devastating wars. From the ashes of war, though, there rises the dove of peace with its olive branch. She focuses a galaxy of light on humanity, flying wherever she may with no fear of being shot out of the sky, for behind it endless more doves of peace will rise. We are one of these doves of peace, fulfilling our mission to mend fences with those we have been in disagreement with, while also showing others the way. Whether we are addressing Iranians or Israelis, we light a candle in the darkness that continues to shine even when we are all asleep. These galaxies of light illuminate the world, just as our prophets once did.
The Kingdom has long stood for peace, putting its trusted international standing to use by offering mediation between parties to end disputes.
The dove of peace should feel safe wherever she flies, carrying her message and her olive branch. The flames of anger and destruction may rage and our Mother Nature may lie depleted and exhausted, but the candle of peace overcomes any ruins to show us the way through the darkness, allowing us to see. Peace needs every helper it can find. In a Middle East at peace with itself today, we are ready to come and help in a united effort to end disputes. The UN itself also needs the oxygen of that example today. With our eyes open and the strong message of our prophets, Saudi Arabia takes pride in working on the side of peace. We want to help others and, most of all, we want to preserve the environment that sustains us all.
The reaction worldwide to Saudi Arabia’s latest initiatives has been very positive, for the world is hungry for initiatives of peace. The promise of once again feeling the blanket of hope, seeing a galaxy of light shine for peace in every language, is what drives us, especially today for Ukraine and Russia. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has taken to heart Pablo Picasso’s words that “action is the foundational key to all success.” Big applause has met this new leadership and the flying doves of peace, as we recognize that the promotion of peace has become a part of our Saudi DNA.
Let the doves of peace fly, let the light of peace shine, and may Saudi Arabia continue to carry its mission for peace to help illuminate the world.
Hassan bin Youssef Yassin worked closely with Saudi petroleum ministers Abdullah Tariki and Ahmed Zaki Yamani from 1959 to 1967. He headed the Saudi Information Office in Washington from 1972 to 1981 and served with the Arab League observer delegation to the UN from 1981 to 1983.

The ‘Multi-Pronged’ Attack on Christianity
Raymond Ibrahim/American Thinker/March 13/2023
In a recent interview, Archbishop Emeritus Gyula Márfi of Hungary “warned of a multi-pronged assault against European Christianity from left-wing forces within the E.U.” In doing so, he said what many in the West, Christian or otherwise, know deep in their gut but dare not acknowledge for fear of being “canceled.”
While the entire interview is well worth reading, a few excerpts are examined here. According to the archbishop,
One of the most striking signs of the European Union’s anti-Christianity is that its constitution did not commemorate Europe’s Christian roots.
Indeed, and as the Catholic archbishop must surely know, none other than the highest of his order—Pope Francis—is also keen on disavowing “Europe’s Christian roots.” As the Vicar of Christ, an avowed supporter of unchecked Muslim migration into Europe, once said: When I hear talk of the Christian roots of Europe, I sometimes dread the tone, which can seem triumphalist or even vengeful. It then takes on colonialist overtones.
He did not clarify how the desire to preserve the national, cultural, and religious integrity of one’s own homeland—in this case, Europe—can have “colonialist overtones.” But it didn’t matter; just using the guilt-ridden word “colonialist”—which ironically refers to actions taken outside one’s homeland—was apparently the goal.
The archbishop continues:
They [the E.U] write about Greco-Roman traditions and enlightenment, but not about Christianity. Yet ancient culture and art have survived precisely because of Christians: the writings of Virgil, Tacitus, Homer, and others have been copied by monks deep in their cells. This, of course, is true. All throughout Western school rooms, Greco-Roman civilization is presented as the West’s heritage, even though Christian civilization not only preserved it, but is the much more direct ancestor of the modern West.
Similarly, after discussing how Muslim violence severed the ancient continuity between the European and North African sides of antiquity’s Mediterranean, historian Emmett Scott writes,
This is something that has been almost completely overlooked by historians, especially those of northern European extraction. For the latter in particular, the Mediterranean is viewed through the prism of classical history. So bewitched have educated Europeans been by the civilization of Greece and Rome, that they have treated the more recent part of Mediterranean history—over a thousand years of it—as if it never existed.
The Hungarian archbishop also
lamented the erasure of Christmas in the public square, noting the growing trend of replacing the word ‘Christmas’ with ‘holidays.’ He recalled how the city of Brussels, the capital of the E.U., declined to put up a Christmas tree in 2012 for fear of offending its Muslim population.
There is, of course, no need to go back to 2012 for examples. Expressions of Christmas, particularly the Nativity scene, are canceled every year throughout the West, often in the name of appeasing Muslims. A few examples come from the UK (here and here), Italy (here and here), Germany (here and here), and Belgium (here and here).
Most recently, during Christmas of 2022 in Sweden, at least one school—a Catholic school—canceled a Christmas holiday in order to accommodate Muslim sensibilities.
What makes all this appeasement especially loathsome is that, of all non-Christians, it is precisely Muslims who, far from reciprocating such “sensitivity,” do the exact opposite. If anything, the Christmas season often heralds nothing but a rise in the persecution of Christian minorities throughout the Muslim world.
As discussed here, however, and in agreement with the Hungarian archbishop,
Christmas is under attack in the West, not because of Muslims, but because of homegrown Western elements who despise the Christian holiday and everything it represents. Rather than be honest, however, they use Muslims as pawns and pretexts. That, by the way, is the case with everything Western people are told they must suppress—beginning with their religion—in the name of “inclusivity.” In the end, this exercise in self-suppression is not about accommodating minority groups but rather sabotaging Western civilization from within.
Finally, the archbishop connected it all by explaining why “leftists” are dedicated to flooding Europe with Muslim migrants:
In my opinion, Muslims are also being called in to get Christ and Christianity out of Europe. Today, Freemasons and Muslims are coming together to make Christianity disappear from Europe. It was practically the same as it was in the age of the Savior, when the Scribes and Pharisees worked with their deadly enemy, Pontius Pilate, to get Jesus out of the way…. In a multicultural, mixed society, the individual loses his identity, sense of identity, culture, faith, language, practically everything … [making people easier to manipulate for powerful corporations] who want to turn the whole Earth into a huge collective farm, where there are no ethnic, national and religious identities, only obedient workers and consumers manufactured according to standards.
Here the oft-asked question arises: why are leftists, whose “values” are antithetical to Islam, so keen on advocating for Muslims? The answer is evident in the words of an ancient strategy: “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.” The Western elements that are forever protecting and empowering Islam, and which operate under various names—“leftists,” “liberals,” “marxists,” “progressives,” “social justice warriors,” etc.—see Islam as a vague and distant challenge. For the moment, Islam is a tool for them to combat their real and much closer enemy: Christianity, and the mores and civilization borne of it.
As the archbishop goes on to observe, European leftists “will ultimately ruin themselves” by embracing large-scale Muslim migration, as “Islam will never accept their liberal principles.”
That may be true, but their hate for Christianity, which poses an immediate and present danger to their agenda, overrides any future concerns they might have about Islam. In their myopic obsessions, they overlook that Islam is on its way to becoming Europe’s majority faith in a paltry 25 years, at which point the jihadist crocodile will eat them last.
Even so, it’s refreshing to see that there are some Christian leaders who understand what is going on, and why—even if one needs to look to distant Hungary for such insights.

دراسة علمية وجيو سياسية من موقع تابليت تلقي الأضواء على دور الصين المتصاعد في الشرق الأوسط
2020 Archives/China’s Emerging Middle Eastern Kingdom/China’s drive for supremacy is now underway in the Middle East—and it won’t end there
BY MICHAEL DORAN AND PETER ROUGH/The Tablet/AUGUST 02, 2020
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/116569/the-tablet-chinas-emerging-middle-eastern-kingdom-chinas-drive-for-supremacy-is-now-underway-in-the-middle-east-and-it-wont-end-there/
This oft-repeated shibboleth ignores clear signs that China is very actively engaged in a hard-power contest with the United States—a contest that the Chinese occasionally acknowledge and are capable of winning. In 2016, Xi Jinping toured the Middle East for the first time in his capacity as president of the People’s Republic of China, visiting Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Iran. Chinese propaganda hailed the trip as a milestone.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a white paper on its Arab policy, the first of its kind. “We will deepen China-Arab military cooperation and exchange,” the paper read. “We will … deepen cooperation on weapons, equipment and various specialized technologies, and carry out joint military exercises.”The following year, in 2017, the Chinese navy opened a naval base in Djibouti, the first overseas base it has ever established—a tacit renunciation of the traditional Chinese credo of noninterventionism. Djibouti sits on the southern end of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which guards the passage to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal from the Gulf of Aden. On the northern end, only 18 miles away, lies Yemen.China is advancing on the Middle East with ruthless determination, because the region is of more vital interest to China than any other, aside from the Western Pacific.
Indeed, China is actively working to oust the United States from the Middle East—a reality that the American strategic community would overwhelmingly prefer not to recognize, but one that is nonetheless becoming glaringly obvious.Don’t believe us? Ask the Uighurs, the brutalized people of Xinjiang province, which the Chinese government is actively colonizing by moving in millions of ethnic Han Chinese. The lucky among the Uighurs, who number some 11 million in total, are trapped in an inescapable web of surveillance and oppression. The unlucky ones, numbering perhaps 1 million, are interned in ideological indoctrination camps where they are exploited as slave labor, tortured, and, according to recent reports, subjected to forced sterilizations.What motive can China have for its ongoing torment of a small ethnic minority, which brings Beijing an ongoing avalanche of negative publicity in the West? Xi’s policy flows, the experts tell us, from Beijing’s fear of terrorist and separatist movements among the Uighurs, who are a Turkic Muslim people with ethnic and religious ties to their neighbors and to Turkey.
Whatever the validity of this analysis, it misses the strategic vector, which again points directly to the Middle East.Xi’s signature foreign policy achievement is the Belt and Road Initiative, a $1 trillion program that invests in infrastructure projects across the world designed to funnel resources back to a hungry China, thereby creating a global Chinese sphere of interest. The jewel in the crown of the Belt and Road Initiative is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor—a multibillion-dollar program to build highways, rail lines, and pipelines from the port of Gwadar on the Indian Ocean to Xinjiang, the Uighur heartland. The northern terminus of the corridor is Kashgar—a Uighur city which, with cameras in every crevice, is likely the most surveilled metropolitan area in the world. China is crushing the Uighurs, in other words, because their territory sits athwart China’s critical overland supply routes.
How determined is China in its advance toward the Middle East? Determined enough to commit genocide.
The assumption of compatibility between Chinese and American interests in the Middle East is the residue of an otherwise defunct strategic belief system. Call it “harmonic convergence.” From Presidents Nixon to Obama, American leaders mistakenly assumed that globalism would transform China into a kinder, gentler communist power.
This theory began with the basic recognition that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) faced extraordinary pressure to grow its economy to create jobs for an exploding population. By necessity, therefore, Beijing had no choice but to accept several core components of capitalism, chief among them the flexibility that only decentralized decision-making can provide. As China decentralized its economy, so the thinking went, a new middle class would rise and demand more say over government policies. Full-blown democracy might not ensue, but relations between rulers and ruled would become ever more consensual and transactional. The iron laws of market economics would transform the CCP from a tyrant into the largely benign technocratic manager of a giant outsourcing park for Apple and Nike.
What China’s heavily bureaucratized one-party state lacks in the capacity to innovate and solve real-world technical challenges quickly, Israel has in spades—along with a unique ability to see inside and understand the capacities of the American techno-military complex.
Harmonic convergence is a materialist theory of history, a capitalist analogue to Marxism. It assumes economics to be the main driver of human affairs, and it sees the “liberal international order” as the product of the immutable laws of political economy—universal laws that would shave the rough edges off communist China just as they had shaped Europe, America, Australia, Japan, and South Korea into modern liberal states. For decades, successive American presidents from both political parties worked to integrate the economies of China and America, turning them into conjoined twins.
The dynamics on which harmonic convergence focused were real enough. But the theory’s exclusive focus on economics blinded American leaders to countervailing factors—cultural, political, and demographic—of equal or greater weight. Culturally, China sees itself not as one country among many, but as a great civilization that is central to humankind. Politically, the CCP has proved more capable than anyone ever dreamed possible of adapting single-party rule to the demands of a modern economy. Thanks, in part, to the rise of new technologies, the CCP now manages to efficiently surveil 1.4 billion people, permitting them latitude in their economic affairs while ruthlessly policing their political life and social interactions.
CCP oppression of the Chinese people would be troubling but manageable if China were a middling actor on the world stage. But size matters. In 2010, Chinese foreign minister, Yang Jiechi, stormed out of an international conference in protest over U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s criticism of aggressive behavior by the Chinese military in the South China Sea. He subsequently justified his rage with this terse observation: “China is a big country and other countries are small countries, and that’s just a fact.”
China resents the efforts of the United States to defend and support “small” countries in order to sustain an international order China had no say in creating and whose values—liberalism, democracy, free speech, free and transparent markets—it sees as daggers aimed at the CCP’s continuing rule. Beijing is therefore determined to break the liberal capitalist mold that the West built for it, and its heft gives it the power to succeed.
Of late, some analysts have taken to identifying the source of China’s hostility to the West as “communism.” Though anachronistic, the term is not entirely inaccurate. To be sure, no one in China still believes in the hidebound tenets of Marxist economics. Still, the CCP continues to rely on the one-party state structure and the traditional communist party tools of repression, subversion, and ideological warfare—including, to name just three, the secret police, a global system of front organizations and espionage networks, and a colossal propaganda machine—to advance nationalist ends.
In foreign policy, the CCP remains dedicated to international revolution. The new world they envision, however, is not a Marxist paradise but one in which China will replace the United States as the dominant power in a Sinocentric world order.
In achieving this goal, China’s leaders see business and scientific research as subordinate branches of the national security apparatus. The “Made in China 2025” initiative, which the CCP unveiled in 2015, envisions near-complete Chinese independence from foreign suppliers, especially in next-generation high-tech industries, with the goal of transforming China into the undisputed leader in the fields that will drive global economic growth in the coming decades.
The idea of supplanting the United States as the motor of high-tech innovation is integrally connected to the second track along which the CCP is moving: military modernization and expansion. Although reliable numbers are difficult to come by, between 2000 and 2019, China’s defense budget is estimated to have increased more than fivefold, from $43 billion to $266 billion—a sum that exceeds the combined defense budgets of Russia, Israel, Great Britain, and France. While Beijing’s immediate goal is to gain superiority over the United States in the Western Pacific, its long-term aim is to develop, within three decades, a fully expeditionary military, one capable of projecting power to the four corners of the globe with state-of-the-art weaponry matching or surpassing the firepower of the United States, and one trained in tactics designed to neutralize existing American advantages.
The third track of China’s strategy is political: to make the world more hospitable to the CCP’s single-party state. The new security law for Hong Kong, issued in late June, reminds us that as China grows in stature, it is becoming more aggressive and expansionist and hostile to democracy, not less. The CCP routinely uses front groups to organize expatriate Chinese communities and mobilize them in support of Beijing’s goals. It forces foreign companies operating in China to toe its ideological line in their own homes, and exploits Chinese businesses, universities, and research institutes to infiltrate Western institutions and companies.
In this context, the Middle East presents Beijing with a unique mix of threats and opportunities. On the threat side of the ledger is the fact that around half of China’s oil imports either originate in the Persian Gulf or flow through the Suez Canal. In addition to oil and gas, many of the other resources that feed China’s economy wind their way to ports such as Shanghai or Guangzhou only after passing through Middle Eastern choke points, where they are vulnerable to interdiction by the United States.
On the opportunity side for China, the Middle East is not only the source of much-needed oil, it is also home to the Jewish state. In terms of population, Israel is miniscule, but it is a cyber superpower, a global leader in artificial intelligence, and a spectacular innovator of next-generation weaponry. What China’s heavily bureaucratized one-party state lacks in the capacity to innovate and solve real-world technical challenges quickly, Israel has in spades—along with a unique ability to see inside and understand the capacities of the American techno-military complex. Jerusalem could play an indispensable role in helping Beijing achieve both its “China 2025” goals and its military modernization efforts—if it were not sheltering under the protective umbrella of the United States military.
“The World Island” is the name that Halford Mackinder, the father of modern geostrategy, gave to the single landmass created by the three interlocking continents, Europe, Africa and Asia, whose point of intersection we call “the Middle East.” The power that dominates the World Island commands the globe. The economic lifelines of not just China but also much of the world crisscross the region. Today, the United States military guarantees those lifelines, ensuring American global preeminence. If the era of American primacy in the Middle East were to end, the global balance of power would shift dramatically toward Beijing.
Last June, Rear Adm. Heidi Berg, director of intelligence at the U.S. Africa Command, drew public attention to the problem of the harassment of American forces at Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti—the only permanent American base on the continent—by their new Chinese neighbors. The Chinese, she explained to reporters, were working to “constrain international airspace” by barring American aircraft from flying over the Chinese military base, deploying drones that were designed to interfere with U.S. flight operations, and flashing military-grade lasers at American pilots, causing minor injury to their eyes. On more than one occasion, Chinese soldiers have also attempted to infiltrate the American base.
From Beijing’s point of view, hard-power competition with the United States in the Middle East is a direct extension of the military contest in the Western Pacific. In the event of war between China and its Asian adversaries, Beijing intends to deny the United States the ability to operate militarily within “the first island chain”—the string of archipelagos stretching from the Kuril and Japanese Islands in the north, southward through Taiwan and the Philippines, and terminating in Borneo. These islands—America’s unsinkable aircraft carriers—hem in China from the east, turning the Asian behemoth into a peculiarly landlocked country.
To date, Beijing has had no means of breaking out to the sea. But China’s new route through Pakistan to the Indian Ocean changes all that. Beijing calls it the “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor” (CPEC), because Americans, whose thinking is steeped in harmonic convergence, drop their guard when they hear the word “economic.” In reality, the Pakistan-China relationship is a military alliance in all but name, directed at India. The corridor will terminate on the Indian Ocean at Gwadar, where a port is currently under construction with generous help from the Belt and Road Initiative.
While Beijing is now presenting Gwadar as an entirely commercial venture, upon completion it will certainly become a military base, which will assist Beijing in flanking India. CPEC will also shorten and harden China’s supply lines. Gwadar will serve as a transshipment hub for oil and natural gas and other raw materials that will flow overland through pipelines to Xinjiang, then on to points farther east in China.
To put the strategic import of the China-Pakistan link in quantifiable terms, the total distance from China to the Persian Gulf is over 5,000 nautical miles, through waters that, in time of war, will likely be impassable. By contrast, the distance from the Persian Gulf to Gwadar is less than 600 nautical miles.
The strategic advantages of this base-to-be will transform it into the most lustrous pearl in China’s growing “string of pearls”—the network of entrepôts along the sea lanes of communication that stretch from Hong Kong to Djibouti and Port Sudan on the Red Sea. With the exception of Djibouti, China presents these positions as commercial hubs—but at least some are clearly dual-use facilities that will be openly militarized whenever Beijing is ready to unsheathe its sword.
These martial intentions are not lost on China’s Asian rivals. If viewed from Delhi, Tokyo, Taipei, Seoul, Manila, or Canberra, the hostile purpose of the string of pearls is obvious. In the event of war, China is positioning itself not simply to defend its own energy supply lines but also to threaten the lines of its adversaries, all of whom are highly dependent on Middle Eastern oil. Among the most dependent are Japan and Taiwan, both of which have virtually no domestic oil and gas and rely overwhelmingly on Middle Eastern imports.
Among the pearls, the offensive strategic potential of Djibouti and Gwadar are particularly notable. Djibouti guards the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a chokepoint in the route between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean, through which oil flows to Europe. Gwadar, for its part, is located just off the Gulf of Oman, situated within easy striking distance of the Strait of Hormuz, through which oil destined for India, Japan, and Taiwan must pass.
If Beijing were in a position to interdict the cargo passing through these two key Middle Eastern chokepoints from its new bases in Djibouti and Gwadar, it would have its thumb on the world’s windpipe. Which appears to be exactly the vision that shapes the ambitions of Chinese war planners. A 2016 U.S. Naval War College study warns that within a decade China will have as many as 530 warships and submarines, up from the estimated 400 currently in its fleet. Under current budgets, the United States has little prospect of keeping pace.
Some analysts argue that the counting of vessels is a meaningless exercise: American ships are larger, more sophisticated, and more lethal than their Chinese counterparts—and may remain that way for decades to come. The American navy, moreover, is supposedly better trained in combined arms conflict and in coordination with allied militaries. Whatever the truth of such assertions, Beijing is not planning to assert its domination over the United States in an epic big-screen set piece event like the Battle of Midway. Instead, it’s chipping away at American power, slowly and methodically, with the aim of persuading America’s allies (and potential allies such as India) that the global balance of power is shifting against Washington, and that they are foolish to rely on the Americans for their security.
China’s Middle East strategy is not hard to parse. It is not trying to defeat the Americans in armed combat; it is waging a campaign of political warfare. To borrow a phrase from the Cold War, Beijing is trying to Finlandize America’s allies. That job does not require a military that can match America’s weaponry gun for gun. It just requires that the Americans appear unreliable.
Even now, before its buildup is complete, the Chinese navy is successfully pinning down and thinning out American forces. In 2018, Secretary of Defense James Mattis changed the name of the combatant command for Asia from United States Pacific Command to United States Indo-Pacific Command. In doing so, he tacitly acknowledged that if war were to break out in Asia tomorrow, the United States navy would have no choice but to increase patrols in the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf to deter the Chinese from attacking the supply lines of its enemies. The more thinly spread the forces of the United States become, the easier it is to make smaller powers afraid that America won’t be able or willing to protect them.
China’s message to Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea (to say nothing of Saudi Arabia and Israel) is clear: America is in decline; China is ascendant, its rise to glory inevitable.
In recent years, Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader, has treated Xi Jinping to lessons on how to erode American prestige on the cheap. In the Syrian civil war, Putin deployed a force that was not large enough to constitute a significant threat to American preeminence, but it was still strong enough to turn the tide of the war. By establishing Russia as the leading actor on the ground in Syria, Putin turned himself into an indispensable interlocutor for America’s allies in the Middle East, especially Israel and Turkey, both of whose leaders began visiting Moscow more often than they flew to Washington.
China’s involvement with Russia’s Syria campaign extended well beyond watching Putin meet with Erdogan and Netanyahu in Moscow on television. Chinese warships were a regular part of Russian naval deployments in the Mediterranean, and the canisters of gas that Bashar Assad’s forces dropped on civilians in the early parts of the war were made in China.
One observable effect of China’s military engagement in the Middle East, through its active military alliance with Russia and elsewhere, over the past decade, is that many of America’s closest Middle Eastern allies have become customers for Chinese arms. In 2017, China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) signed a partnership deal with Riyadh to construct a drone manufacturing plant in Saudi Arabia. Previously, CASC had entered into only two such deals: with Pakistan, China’s closest ally, and in Myanmar, which it hopes to turn into an ally and thereby flank India in the East.
China is also gaining experience in force projection through its participation in United Nations peacekeeping missions, to which Beijing sends significantly more personnel than any other permanent member of the Security Council. While Beijing receives plaudits from internationalists for this contribution, the Chinese military gains logistics experience, collects valuable intelligence, and forms enduring relationships. Best of all, it dips into the United Nations peacekeeping budget, to which Washington contributes significantly more than Beijing, to help protect China’s growing overseas assets. Of the 13 countries that accepted Chinese peacekeepers between 2012 and 2018, nine were home to significant Chinese investments. In time, at least some of those contingents will swap out their blue U.N. flag for the red flag of the People’s Republic, transforming themselves into official Chinese military missions.
The rise of the naval base in Djibouti provides the model for this kind of transition. Chinese vessels first arrived in the Horn of Africa in late 2008, to cooperate with (but not to join formally) a multinational anti-piracy task force. The move marked a dramatic change: Never before had China sent warships beyond its territorial waters to cooperate with foreign militaries on an issue of mutual interest. Nor had the Chinese navy ever maintained daily communication with the United States military at the tactical and operational levels. Before then, military-to-military engagements between the Chinese and American navies had been limited to formal meetings between senior officers.
At the time, some in the Pentagon did suggest that this change represented the beginning of serious competition with China in the Indian Ocean and the Middle East. The proponents of harmonic convergence, however, drowned those voices out, arguing that the shift in Chinese policy signaled the eagerness of Beijing to become a “responsible stakeholder”: Cooperation against pirates today would open the door to other forms of cooperation tomorrow.
They were wrong. By encouraging such happy thoughts, the Chinese navy made the Americans comfortable with the presence of Chinese warships in the Horn of Africa. Before long, their temporary mission became a permanent base from which lasers are now directed into the eyes of American pilots.
China does have a deep, obvious, and abiding interest in guarding the free flow of oil—that much the proponents of harmonic convergence got right. Nor was the theory wrong in perceiving that China consciously benefits from the regional stability that the United States military provides. There is indeed a genuine overlap between Chinese and American interests. But that is the least interesting half of the story. China is also dedicated to transforming the liberal international order by undermining the United States and supplanting it as the dominant power in the Middle East. The goal of China’s formal neutrality is to manage the contradiction deftly, not least by diverting Western attention from its hostile long-term intentions.
The coordination between Moscow and Beijing in the Middle East is part of a much larger story. “In the past six years, we have met nearly 30 times,” Xi Jinping said about Vladimir Putin last year upon his arrival in Moscow for a state visit. “Russia is the country that I have visited the most times, and President Putin is my best friend and colleague,” Xi said. For his part, Putin replied that Chinese-Russian ties had “reached an unprecedented level” and described the relationship between the two countries as “a global partnership and strategic cooperation.”
These were more than just diplomatic pleasantries. While significant areas of friction remain, China and Russia are now working hand-in-glove in many key areas, including in defense. The U.S. intelligence community’s “Worldwide Threat Assessment” last year led with the statement: “China and Russia are more aligned than at any point since the mid-1950s.” The assessment did not identify the Middle East as an area of major alignment between China and its Russian partner, but it should have. Together, they are searching for ways to loosen the bonds between Washington and its allies and to strengthen anti-American forces in the region, which are led by Iran.
Harmonic convergence, however, has obscured the nature, extent and even the existence of a Chinese-Russian condominium in the Middle East by overemphasizing the shared Chinese-American interest in regional stability against Russia’s interest in instability—which boosts Russian oil revenue and arms and security exports. Alas, the presumed clash between Russian and Chinese interests is more theoretical than real. As a practical matter, China’s mercantilist approach to energy mitigates friction with Russia over questions pertaining to oil pricing.
Wherever possible, China purchases long-term concessions at favorable rates, thus insulating itself from the vicissitudes of energy markets. Similarly, Putin’s military interventions in Libya and Syria have not threatened China’s interest in stability, which focuses on the oil exporting countries of the Persian Gulf. On the contrary, they have created many opportunities for Chinese diplomacy and commerce. Consequently, little stands in the way of Russia and China forming an active or tacit alliance aimed at weakening the American order in the Middle East, which is an interest that both countries share in common.
Another fact that Americans tend to miss is that China’s economic size and strategic advantages position it as the senior partner in the relationship—meaning that Xi Jinping, not Putin, calls the shots. It is Russia’s job to intervene militarily in the Middle East and, thereby, to take the heat from the Americans. Meanwhile, China benefits from Russia’s “destabilizing” activities.
The behavior of Chinese diplomats at the U.N. is instructive. For at least two decades, they have mostly deferred to their Russian counterparts on the weightiest Middle Eastern issues, such as the Iranian nuclear deal and the Syrian conflict. If approached by American or European diplomats regarding Beijing’s position on an issue under debate, Chinese diplomats indicate that there is no point in discussing matters with them, because they will vote however the Russians decide to vote. By behaving as if Beijing has no independent policy, Chinese diplomats succeed in providing Russia with staunch support while appearing passive almost to the point of indifference. This ploy reinforces the American presumption that trade is all that China really cares about in the Middle East—and that Russia, not China, is the most serious challenger to American primacy in the region.
Russia’s ability to perform as China’s stalking horse in the Middle East depends significantly on its military alliance in Syria with Iran, which has produced the bulk of the ground troops buttressing Bashar Assad’s regime. But Russia cannot afford to pay for the Iranian effort. For that, China’s resources are essential.
While China does not directly subsidize the Syrian war, it is Iran’s biggest trading partner and its biggest source of foreign investment—just as it is Russia’s. While Beijing’s cooperation with Tehran centers on China’s energy needs and nonenergy economic investments, the relationship has also included, for many years, defense cooperation. As the Trump administration’s sanctions have ravaged the Iranian economy, China’s importance to Tehran has only grown.
And Beijing has grown increasingly willing to demonstrate that fact. Last December, China held joint naval exercises with Russia and Iran in the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Oman. The event was notable for being the first of its kind among the three countries, but also for the timing. It came in the midst of significant conflict between Washington and Tehran in which Iranian forces were conducting attacks on tankers hauling oil from the Persian Gulf.
If China were truly neutral in Middle Eastern conflicts, and if it were truly concerned exclusively about trade, then wouldn’t it have refrained from holding joint exercises at that moment—and encouraged its closest friend in the Middle East to settle down, compromise, and get on with the exciting business of building the Chinese and Iranian economies?
Instead, China advertised itself as the silent partner of the Russian and Iranian axis and, by extension, of the so-called “Resistance Alliance,” the string of Iranian allies, including the Assad regime, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis of Yemen.
Of course, Beijing does not explicitly support the malign activities of the Resistance Alliance. On the other hand, neither does it mount opposition to those activities. Iran, too, is China’s stalking horse.
The benefits to China of the destabilizing activities of Russia and Iran in the Middle East are many and substantial. The strategy, first, exhausts America. The last two American presidents have been elected on platforms dedicated to reducing commitments to the Middle East. Sizable segments of both political parties do not understand why the United States is playing a major role in the region, and some significant portion of them advocate leaving it altogether.
Second, the Iranian-Russian axis and the Resistance Alliance damage American prestige. The continuing failures of the United States to prevail over the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, and to outmaneuver Russia in Syria, allow the propaganda machines of Russia, China, and Iran to foster the impression, both inside the Middle East and beyond, that America is past its prime.
Third, keeping the Iranian regime alive and maintaining its military capacity helps the Chinese forces in the region to pin down the American navy, because Iran’s threatening behavior in the Persian Gulf diverts American resources from the Western Pacific.
Neither the Israelis nor the Saudis would choose to manage their Iran problem through Beijing; they would prefer instead to solve it through a strong alliance with the United States. But America’s staying power is uncertain.
Fourth, China is sowing division between America and its allies. Few issues have caused a deeper rift between the United States and its European allies than the disagreements over how to handle the Iran challenge in all of its dimensions—not just the nuclear file. The Syria conflict has similarly divided the Americans from their regional allies, especially Turkey, and it has sent very large refugee flows into Europe that have vexed the European Union and roiled its politics.
Finally, support for Iran and Russia, especially in an era of doubts about America’s long-term commitment to the Middle East, forces major allies of the United States such as Saudi Arabia and Israel to hedge their bets by cultivating their ties with Beijing. For American allies, the best way to gain entree to Beijing without annoying the Americans is by accepting its open invitation to engage economically. Indeed, China is now the number one trading partner of Saudi Arabia, from which it imports more oil than from any other country. Israel, for its part, receives significant capital investment from China along with high-level visits from Chinese military brass, and is employing a Chinese company to develop the port of Haifa—despite repeated American requests to cancel the contract.
In a perfect world, neither the Israelis nor the Saudis would choose to manage their Iran problem through Beijing; they would prefer instead to solve it through a strong alliance with the United States. But both are realistic, and they can see clearly that America’s staying power is uncertain.
The very best lies are grounded in truth, and Beijing’s declaration of neutrality is a very good lie. It broadcasts half of the thoughts that are actually in Xi Jinping’s head, openly acknowledging China’s hunger for energy and need to prevent disruption of its supply. But by emphasizing these truths, Beijing’s neutrality deflects attention from its darker objectives.
Tacit support for the military interventions of Russia and for the terrorism and subversion of the Islamic Republic does not threaten China’s economic interests. On the contrary, brutish violence, if kept within limits, is good for business. What is more, a modicum of mayhem also keeps America on its back foot. In short, China is neutral against the United States.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency, China’s annual crude oil imports, the highest in the world, averaged 10.1 million barrels per day in 2019. Expert forecasts predict that those imports will rise significantly in volume over the next decade. To mitigate the risk of disruption, China has diversified its portfolio of suppliers. In 2019, the top 10 sources of Chinese oil imports included, in addition to Middle Eastern suppliers, Russia, Angola, Brazil, and the United Kingdom. Spreading a dependency of this magnitude across many different suppliers is also a campaign of influence, part of Beijing’s political warfare against the United States.
The purchase of British oil is a case in point. Between 2018 and 2019, China’s imports from Britain increased more than its demand from any other supplier—by 44%. Is it an accident that China invested so dramatically in the British economy at a moment when London was in heated negotiations with Washington about whether Britain would allow the Chinese telecoms giant Huawei to build and operate its 5G network infrastructure? If it is indeed an accident, the Chinese ambassador in London would like to hide that fact from us. When Prime Minister Boris Johnson recently reversed course and decided to phase out Huawei, the ambassador warned him that Chinese companies investing in Britain were “all watching.”
Such threats to punish governments with loss of “private” investment have become a normal part of China’s interaction with close U.S. allies like Britain, Canada, and Australia. In America, however, the prevailing wisdom, based on harmonic convergence, depicts China’s Middle East policy as nothing but a single-minded exercise in resource extraction, as if the Chinese private sector makes decisions on the basis of profit-and-loss calculations, and the bureaucrats in Beijing then run along behind it.
The propensity of Americans to see economics as an autonomous sphere blinds them to a simple fact: China is consciously deploying its economic influence to undermine the American order in the Middle East. Since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, Beijing has invested more than $123 billion in the Middle East and North Africa. If these numbers suggest that the region is a top strategic priority, the relative trend lines are even more expressive. China is now the Middle East’s largest source of foreign investment. While China’s global investments decreased by $100 billion in 2018, its investments in the Middle East and North Africa actually grew that year by over $28 billion. Almost three-quarters of that sum went to American allies: Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia—all countries which China designates as “strategic comprehensive partners,” a major honor in the Chinese diplomatic system. By 2018, annual bilateral trade between China and Persian Gulf allies had nearly doubled from a decade before to $163 billion; in 2000, it was only $10 billion. China is now the largest trading partner of Oman, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, and is among the largest partners of Israel.
But Beijing has singled out one Middle Eastern country for special attention. Between 2008 and 2018, bilateral trade with Iraq increased by over 1,000%, from $2.6 billion to more than $30 billion. In 2013, China became Iraq’s leading source of foreign investment and top trading partner, not to mention the recipient of over half of its oil. Iraq is now the third-largest supplier to China, just behind Saudi Arabia and Russia. When President George W. Bush invaded Iraq in 2003, his detractors, including China, accused him of launching a war to seize control of Iraq’s oil reserves. Ironically, no country has benefited more than China from the postwar oil dispensation. Last year, China Construction Third Engineering Bureau Company agreed to a $1.39 billion deal to build a wide variety of projects in southern Iraq, including low-cost housing, education and medical facilities, and tourist centers.
During a five-day visit to Beijing in September 2019, Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi elevated formal cooperation even further, announcing that Iraq would join China’s Belt and Road Initiative. For his part, Xi Jinping committed to an “oil for reconstruction program,” where China would construct a wide array of projects in Iraq, ranging from roads and airports, to hospitals, sewage systems, and schools, in return for 100,000 Iraqi barrels of oil per day. The United States military defeated the Islamic State for the Iraqi government, but it was Chinese companies, not American, that have reaped the rewards. Thanks to harmonic convergence, the Americans harbored no resentment toward the Chinese for their apparent good fortune. On the contrary, Washington welcomed the growing Chinese economic role, even giving Beijing credit for joining the “American” project of building the Iraqi economy and stabilizing the country.
As sad as this story is, it gets even worse. While Iraq is a wonderland for Chinese business, it is a hostile environment for Americans, due to the widespread influence of Iranian-backed militias. Last December, Iran launched a campaign, spearheaded by those militias under the guidance of Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), to expel the United States from the region as a whole, starting with Iraq. Once again, Iran’s “destabilizing” activities did not receive any visible rebuke from China.
Given the vital importance of China to Iran as its economic lifeline in the era of the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign, one cannot but wonder if Qassem Soleimani received a wink and a nod from Beijing before he launched the violent anti-American campaign that ended in his death. Even if there was no such consultation, the growing influence of China in Iraq still represents yet another example of how Beijing’s use of Iran as a stalking horse pays economic and strategic dividends simultaneously. The IRGC exhausted and confounded American forces in Iraq, thereby creating a vacuum that Iran’s patron, China, is filling.
The realization that China poses a serious threat to the United States in the Middle East comes at an inopportune moment. Public trust in American leaders is at historic lows, and trust in their judgment about the Middle East is especially jaundiced. On both the left and the right, influential voices in the United States demand a reduction of American military commitments. President Obama first planted the idea of retreat in the public mind, with the announcement from his administration of a “pivot to Asia.” This line of thinking is alive and well among supporters of President Donald Trump. “We’re getting out. Let someone else fight over this long bloodstained sand … The job of our military is not to police the world,” Trump said last October. Though he was referring directly to his decision to pull American troops from northeast Syria, his rhetoric signaled agreement with those who favor a broad retreat from the Middle East.
The transformation of the United States into a net energy exporter, thanks to the fracking revolution, has strengthened the bipartisan claim that an American retreat from the Middle East would be both sane and safe. Shouldn’t those who are actually dependent on Middle Eastern oil police the region? While we sympathize with the sentiment behind the question, the simple answer is that no power other than the United States has the wherewithal to contain China. Far from strengthening the United States, a retreat from the Middle East would do severe harm to American interests and deliver a strategic victory of very large proportions to Beijing.
Consider this entirely plausible scenario of the immediate consequences of an American withdrawal. As a first step, Xi Jinping would back Tehran politically and militarily in the development of so-called “anti-access/area denial capabilities.” These are the mix of tactics and weapons that the Chinese military is now deploying inside the first island chain in the Western Pacific with the goal of turning the region into a no-go zone for American forces. With Iran so equipped, the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman would become Chinese lakes.
As a second step, Xi Jinping would follow a similar strategy along the coast of the Red Sea. Dramatically expanding the base in Djibouti, he would then transform the Chinese commercial hub in Port Sudan, across the Red Sea from Jedda, into a sister military base. With both of these installations equipped with anti-access/area denial capabilities, the Red Sea, too, would become a Chinese lake.
From Djibouti, Beijing would assist Iran to realize its objective of turning the Houthis into a Yemeni clone of Lebanese Hezbollah—an Iranian-directed militia equipped with a large arsenal of precision guided ballistic missiles capable of destroying Riyadh. Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf sheikhdoms would find themselves surrounded by Chinese and Iranian firepower. Their ability to export oil, the lifeblood of their economies, would become entirely dependent on the goodwill of China, which would be the only power capable of restraining Iran. The leaders of the oil producing Arab states would then race each other to Beijing to see who could kowtow first to the Chinese Communist Party.
Israel, too, would have no choice but to kowtow, as its shipping lanes from the Port of Eilat to Asia would be at the mercy of the Chinese in the Red Sea. No sooner would the Sino-Russo-Iranian axis rise in the Persian Gulf than a revivified Russo-Iranian alliance would appear in Syria, with direct or indirect assistance from the Chinese military. The Israeli prime minister would make his own mad dash for Beijing to negotiate the place of Israel in the new, Sinocentric Middle Eastern order.
As the representative of a country with nuclear weapons, a state-of-the-art military, and a diversified economy, the Israeli leader would likely receive better terms than his Arab counterparts. Xi Jinping would be more than delighted to treat Israel as close friend of China—provided Israel agreed to downgrade its ties with the United States and Europe, establish a Sino-Israeli cyber research and development center in Beijing, participate in a joint missile defense development project, and allow the Chinese navy to conduct port visits in the Haifa harbor that China built and runs.
The swift hegemony of China over the oil transport chokepoints of the Middle East would lead to panic among America’s East Asian allies and India. Was China readying itself to strangle them economically? Should they search for sources of oil from the Western Hemisphere? Should they work with one another to build emergency oil reserve systems?
In response to the panic, Beijing would launch a charm offensive to reassure panicked U.S. allies that China remained fully committed, as always, to freedom of navigation and to the free flow of oil at stable prices. Beijing would then begin the slow, deliberate and systematic work of exploiting its favorable strategic position in the Middle East to transform itself into the undisputed king of the global energy trade, building up positions of unrivaled power at every stage of the oil production process, from extraction, to transport, to refining, and marketing.
Oil and gas are unique commodities. Their price and availability affect every individual in the world, yet they are controlled by a relatively small group of powerful companies. Merely through the choice of contracting partners and terms of sale, producers and distributors have the power to redirect billions of dollars from one set of pockets to another. Energy companies are thus inherently attractive to Chinese communist leaders, for whom it is second nature to seek out and acquire instruments of mass influence that can be kept under the tight control of a privileged few.
Under the new, Sinocentric Middle Eastern order, companies and individuals critical of America would see their stars rise. This web would include Europe and, indeed, all other regions where Middle Eastern oil and gas are consumed. Nor will the energy self-sufficiency of the United States protect us from Chinese pressure. The recent Saudi-Russian price war serves as a reminder that oil is produced locally but priced globally. When the Saudi-Russian dispute collapsed the price, it threatened to destroy the American fracking industry, on which much of the growth of the American economy is now predicated.
If China succeeds the United States as the dominant power in the Middle East, a major shift in the global balance of power will result, significantly diminishing the clout of the United States, even to the point of eroding the control that Americans exercise, as a free people, over their own destiny.
Retreating from the Middle East would go down as one of the greatest strategic blunders in American history. Nevertheless, the political climate in the United States constrains the options of America’s leaders. The last two presidents gained office by promising to end wars in the Middle East, not start new ones. Neither President Trump nor Democratic candidate Joe Biden will display anything but a reluctance to introduce new forces into the region.
How then, can the United States strike a balance between containment of China and the electorate’s demand for a light touch in the Middle East? The key is finding partners on the ground who will do the work that the American military cannot do.
In American politics today, there are only two available methods for identifying partners and assigning them roles and missions. The first, co-optation, was the method Obama used. Attempting to create a concert system in the Middle East, Obama started from the assumptions that Moscow and Tehran were open, under the right conditions, to being co-opted; and that America and its major allies shared more in common with them than they had heretofore been inclined to acknowledge. Obama saw himself not as the head of a coalition dedicated to undermining Russia and Iran, but as a leader intent on bringing together all of the various regional “stakeholders” and helping them find mutually beneficial solutions to the challenges of the region. America, its allies, and Iran and Russia all shared, Obama believed, a vital interest in containing Sunni radicals such as al-Qaida and the Islamic State, and in stabilizing the Middle East more broadly.
By the lights of this theory, Iran is a status-quo power, merely struggling to hold on to what it has, not attempting to overturn the existing order. The worst policies of Iran—pursuit of nuclear weapons, support for terrorism, and building of subversive militias in surrounding states, to name just three—were indeed ugly, but they were essentially defensive acts. Iran has a weak regular army, which poses no threat of invading its neighbors. Its deep sense of insecurity, historically, has derived largely from the fact that its regional rivals, Israel and Saudi Arabia, had persuaded the United States to take an aggressive position toward it, thus convincing Tehran that America’s real goal was regime change. As long as America sought the destruction of the Islamic Republic, a more productive relationship was impossible.
Obama approached Russia with an analogous set of assumptions—which, intellectually, fit hand-in-glove with the harmonic convergence approach to China. If the United States were to treat Moscow and Tehran as partners, not as adversaries who needed to be contained, then it could change the calculus in Moscow and Tehran. Thus, on one hand, the president repeatedly scolded Saudi Arabia and Israel, lecturing them on the need, in his words, to “share” the region with Iran. Meanwhile, on the other hand, he engaged in an ambitious attempt to arrive at a strategic accommodation with Moscow and Tehran. The main focus of that effort was the Iran nuclear deal, but it included diplomatic engagement over the future of Syria and Iraq as well.
The foundational assumptions supporting this approach, however, were false. Russia and Iran are not simply playing defense against American imperialism. They are anti-status quo powers seeking to oust the United States from the region—and they were backed in turn by a more powerful anti-status quo power, China. Obama’s precipitous withdrawal from Iraq; his repeated announcements that America was war weary and eager to rebuild at home; his refusal to take the lead, whether diplomatically or militarily, in stabilizing Syria; his explanations that East Asia was the new foreign policy priority—all of these and more convinced Moscow and Tehran that the United States was racing for the exits in the Middle East. Once America left, they had good reason to believe that the Chinese would work with them.
Thus, the spirit of partnership that the United States hoped to spark by adopting a more accommodating position on the Iranian nuclear program did not generate a reciprocal response.
On the contrary, the Iranians recognized that Obama’s ambition to complete the nuclear deal gave them a free hand elsewhere in the region. Tehran’s shared interest with Moscow in the survival of the Assad regime generated unprecedented cooperation between the two countries in Syria. The moment the nuclear deal was completed, this cooperation flowered into a full-blown military alliance.
Iran and Russia were not alone in deepening their involvement in the Middle East on the heels of the nuclear deal. In January 2016, Xi Jinping toured the region for the first time, visiting Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and, the highlight of his trip, Iran. Chinese propaganda framed the visit as the arrival not just of a leader, but of China as a great power. The co-optation method of stabilizing the Middle East opened the door to a Sino-Russo-Iranian coalition dedicated to overturning the American order.
The United States cannot leave the Middle East. But neither can it stabilize the region with large numbers of its own ground troops. Nor can it create a concert system with Iran and Russia. Only one option, then, remains: to contain the anti-American powers—China, first among them—by building up a regional coalition made up of America’s traditional allies, which will shoulder much of the work on the ground.
Alas, containment has been getting bad press these days. On July 11, The New York Times reported that China and Iran were on the verge of signing a 25-year trade and military agreement. The article would have us believe that this is a stunning new and dangerous development—the direct consequence of Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran. But it is not. As even the article concedes, without digesting the implications, Beijing and Tehran first announced a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” when Xi Jinping visited Tehran in 2016—a year before Trump took office, and only one week after the JCPOA brought sanctions relief to Iran.
The New York Times encourages us to conclude that the only remedy to the Sino-Iranian alliance is a return to Obama’s policy of co-optation. But the great flaw of Obama’s policy was that it forced no hard choices on Iran, which was free to pocket concessions from the West while cooperating even more closely with China and Russia in ways that eroded American power. Tehran could enjoy sanctions relief while building a web of rapacious militias explicitly dedicated to attacking and subverting America’s allies and to driving the United States from the Middle East.
Similarly, Obama’s model of co-optation failed to take advantage of the glaring contradiction at the heart of China’s grand strategy, which seeks to enjoy all the benefits of American hegemony while working, indirectly, to destroy it. Indeed, the contradiction strikes at the core of the Sino-Iranian relationship, which now consists of a delicate balancing act: While China tacitly supports Iran in order to undermine the American position in the Middle East, it cannot afford to take that support too far, lest the blowback harm its economy or provoke a damaging counterreaction from the United States.
The modern Sino-Iranian relationship was forged shortly after the Iranian Revolution, when both Iran and China were still international pariahs united by overt hostility to the American-dominated global order. Since then, China has adopted a more restrained posture—at least in appearance—especially since its accession to the World Trade Organization and its integration into the global economy. China’s economic ties with the United States put limits on China’s support for Iran: In 2018, China’s annual trade relationship with Iran was $42 billion, while its trade relationship with the United States ran at about $737 billion.
At present, China is too dependent on exports to the United States, too weak militarily, and its energy supply lines are too vulnerable to risk direct confrontation with the United States; instead, China mounts indirect challenges through Iran and Russia. A return to the cooptation approach will assist Beijing in its strategy of having it both ways. More specifically, it will strengthen the Russian-Iranian alliance, turning it into a more effective sword for China to swing at the American regional security structure.
If the Russian-Iranian alliance should die, or become weak and ineffectual, China will not step in directly to build it back up—because Beijing fears a direct confrontation with the United States. The first priority of American policy, therefore, is to remove the sword from China’s hand by crushing the Russian-Iranian alliance. The domestic American political climate will not permit the use of large numbers of American troops in this project, but four other tools do exist:
1) Economic sanctions. The Trump administration has been imposing these effectively. The Iranian economy is in perilous condition, and the economic situation of Iran’s allies, the Assad regime and Lebanese Hezbollah, are equally dire.
2) Clandestine operations. In recent months, Iran has experienced a wave of mysterious fires and explosions at industrial complexes and military installations. One of these events, at the nuclear fuel enrichment site at Natanz, reportedly set back the country’s nuclear program significantly. A foreign hand is suspected in at least some of these episodes, and the finger of suspicion points most often at Israel. But the sabotage could just as easily be the result of a joint American-Israeli operation.
3) Direct military action by allies. The Turks and the Israelis have both carried out very effective operations in Syria that have significantly degraded not just Iranian but also, in the case of the Turks, Russian capabilities.
4) Selective and judicious use of American military capabilities. The killing of Qassem Soleimani in December did more to shake the Iranian regime than any step the United States has taken in the last 30 years, with the possible exception of the invasion of Iraq. It not only removed from the game an indispensable player, but it boosted the morale of America’s allies and demoralized its enemies.
These tools, taken together, can effectively remove the Russo-Iranian sword from the hand of China. They are already being used. Are they the result of a conscious Trump administration strategy, or have they simply materialized as a set of ad hoc responses to the president’s insistence that his national security team contain Iran aggressively, yet with an economy of force? Whatever the answer, they point the way forward. The goal of American policy should be to use them separately and in coordination so as to increase their lethality.
The greatest advantage that the United States has in its competition with China and, indeed, with any of its adversaries, is hard power. In the realm of trade and investment, Washington simply cannot compete with China and hope to win. If it is to contain China successfully, then it will win with its sledgehammers: military power and economic sanctions. In the Middle East, what America’s allies crave most is the security that comes from the might of the American military. Nothing does more to encourage allies to hedge their bets and cozy up to Beijing than the fear that the United States has decided to abandon military competition as a tool of statecraft.
As China works to make the Middle East a factor in the Western Pacific balance of power, the United States should respond by bringing the Pacific to the Middle East. China’s energy supply lines and its aspiration to become the dominant power in the Persian Gulf should become a regular and significant part of America’s discussions with its Pacific partners and India. The goal of this dialogue should be to arrive not just at a shared picture of the threat but also at strategies for assuring that China’s supply lines remain highly vulnerable. China’s partners and potential partners in its plan to become a Middle Eastern military power—Iran, Djibouti, Pakistan, Iraq, and others—should be put on notice that the days of harmonic convergence are over. Support for Chinese hard-power aspirations must come at a steep price. The U.S. must bury harmonic convergence as an organizing principle, or risk ceding control of the international system to a hostile, anti-democratic power.
*Michael Doran is Director of the Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East and a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C.
*Peter Rough, the former director of research in the office of George W. Bush, is a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C.
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