English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For March 03/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
The Parable of the Unmerciful Servant: You wicked servant,’ he said, ‘I canceled all that debt of yours because you begged me to. Shouldn’t you have had mercy on your fellow servant just as I had on you
Matthew 18/23-35/ Then Peter came to Jesus and asked, “Lord, how many times shall I forgive my brother or sister who sins against me? Up to seven times?”Jesus answered, “I tell you, not seven times, but seventy-seven times. “Therefore, the kingdom of heaven is like a king who wanted to settle accounts with his servants. As he began the settlement, a man who owed him ten thousand bags of gold[h] was brought to him. Since he was not able to pay, the master ordered that he and his wife and his children and all that he had be sold to repay the debt. “At this the servant fell on his knees before him. ‘Be patient with me,’ he begged, ‘and I will pay back everything.’ The servant’s master took pity on him, canceled the debt and let him go.“But when that servant went out, he found one of his fellow servants who owed him a hundred silver coins. He grabbed him and began to choke him. ‘Pay back what you owe me!’ he demanded.“His fellow servant fell to his knees and begged him, ‘Be patient with me, and I will pay it back.’“But he refused. Instead, he went off and had the man thrown into prison until he could pay the debt. When the other servants saw what had happened, they were outraged and went and told their master everything that had happened. “Then the master called the servant in. ‘You wicked servant,’ he said, ‘I canceled all that debt of yours because you begged me to. Shouldn’t you have had mercy on your fellow servant just as I had on you?’ In anger his master handed him over to the jailers to be tortured, until he should pay back all he owed. “This is how my heavenly Father will treat each of you unless you forgive your brother or sister from your heart.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 02-03/2023
Israel Threatens to Strike Hezbollah in Southern Syria
US State Department offers $10 mn for info on Hezbollah financial network
International Support Group for Lebanon urges for swift president election
Lebanon: Major General Abbas Ibrahim Bids Farewell to General Security, Eyes Foreign Ministry
Berri says Maronite disaccord complicating presidential vote
Mouawad lashes out at Berri over 'in vitro experiment' candidate
Report: Opposition won't join LF in boycotting presidential vote
Clashes kill one in Palestinian refugee camp
Berri tackles general situation and transport and ports’ affairs with Hamieh, meets Sheikh Ali Bahsoun
Hamieh broaches local developments with Belgian Ambassador, says dialogue among Lebanese is gateway for electing a president
PSP leader tackles developments with US Ambassador
Oil prices edge up in Lebanon
Supermarkets mark prices in dollars as local currency tanks
Why is it so difficult for Lebanon to elect its next president?/Michael Young/The National/March 02/2023
The growing to-do list/Nicholas Frakes/Now Lebanon/March 02/2023
Conditions in Lebanon ripe for civil war/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/March 02/ 2023
Damascus Documents reveal story behind creation of Hezbollah/Ibrahim Hamidi/Al Majalla/February 26/2023

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 02-03/2023
New US sanctions target Iranian petroleum, petrochemical trade
France: Iran Uranium Enrichment 'Very Concerning'
Iran Conducts Drill to Defend ‘Sensitive Sites’
British Navy Seizes Smuggled Iranian Weapons in Gulf of Oman
Over 100 Schoolgirls Hospitalized In Iran over Gas Poisoning
Iranian Dissident Masih Alinejad Won't Be Silenced
Bill on ‘Executing Prisoners’ Passes Preliminary Knesset Vote
Sara Netanyahu barricaded into hair salon by protesters over judicial reforms
Israeli campaign raises funds for torched Palestinian town
What's driving the players behind Israel's legal overhaul?
Sudani Announces Start of Preparations for 3rd Baghdad Conference
Blinken and Lavrov meet for first time since Ukraine war
G20 talks end in India without consensus on Ukraine war
China's Peace Plan for Ukraine Could Have Dangerous Consequences
Russian mercenary boss publishes video showing fighters inside Ukraine's Bakhmut
Ukraine war: Over 100 Russian tanks destroyed in fighting in Vuhledar, says Kyiv
Russia may run of out money next year and needs foreign investors due to 'serious' pressure from sanctions, oligarch warns
Russia journal: Moscow mulls possible use of nuclear arms to fend off US attack -RIA
Strike the heart of Russia and watch its resolve crumble
British navy seizes Iran missiles, parts likely Yemen bound
SpaceX launches UAE, US, Russian astronauts on voyage to space station

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 02-03/2023
Turkey: Islamist Sex with Children Is Fine; Condemning It Is an Offense/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute./March 2, 2023
The New Path of Israeli-Palestinian Relations/Saleh Al-Qallab/Asharq Al Awsat/March 02/2023
Hunter Biden Has Some Explaining to Do/Ana Marie Cox/The New York Times/March 02/2023
Hunter Biden Has Some Explaining to Do/Ana Marie Cox/The New York Times/March 02/2023
Iran’s foreign policy duplicity harms it more than neighbors/Hassan Al-Mustafa/Arab News/March 02, 2023
Is it time for the US to open up its space market to allies?/Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/March 02, 2023
Yes, Jihad Really Means ‘Struggle,’ But That Only Makes It Worse/Raymond Ibrahim/March 02, 2023
Is Iran ready to build a nuclear bomb or not?/Simon Henderson/The Hill/March 02/2023
Turkey’s Disaster—and Erdogan’s ....How the Earthquake Could Spell the End of His Rule/Soner Cagaptay/Foreign Affairs/March 02/2023

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 02-03/2023
Israel Threatens to Strike Hezbollah in Southern Syria
Thursday, 2 March, 2023 - 10:30
Daraa – Riad al-Zein/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 2 March, 2023
Israeli planes dropped leaflets in areas in the governorates of Qoneitra and Daraa, southern Syria, warning the Syrian army against the consequences of sheltering Hezbollah members. The leaflets read: “We will not accept the continued presence of Hezbollah at the Tel Al-Hara military base, and the continuation of cooperation in any way… Hezbollah continues to extend its arms in the region and its presence brings disaster and destruction… You will be the first to be harmed.”A former leader in the opposition factions in the Daraa governorate told Asharq Al-Awsat that since 2018, Tel Al-Hara has been exposed to three Israeli attacks. The hill, which is located northwest of Daraa governorate, is considered a strategic military site, due to its location, which overlooks the occupied Golan and is only about 15 km away from the border with Israel. It also represents a link between the western countryside of Damascus and the governorates of Daraa and Quneitra. Tel al-Hara is also a restricted military zone. Before 2018, the area was under the control of the opposition factions. The Syrian regime forces and pro-Iran militias regained control over the hill, in the wake of the settlement agreement in the southern region that was sponsored by Russia. The former opposition leader pointed to dozens of air raids and missile targeting against military sites in southern Syria since 2018. The Israeli targeting included observation and monitoring points in Qoneitra, and radar and air defense sites in As-Sweida. However, the main targets, which have been repeatedly bombed, are located in the vicinity of the town of Hader in the northern Qoneitra countryside, along the ceasefire line in the occupied Syrian Golan. Several sites were targeted in As-Sweida, including the 159th Regiment, Al-Thala Military Airport, and the Al-Dour Battalion, and the radar points in Tal Al-Sahn, Tal Qina, Tal Al-Masih, and Tal Qalib, which were recently bombed on Feb. 18. Journalist Rayan Maarouf from As-Sweida told Asharq Al-Awsat that the targeted sites in southern Syria mostly contained air defense equipment and military radars. Iran seems to be funding the reconstruction of these sites, he added.

US State Department offers $10 mn for info on Hezbollah financial network
Naharnet/Thursday, 2 March, 2023
U.S. State Department Rewards for Justice Program has offered a reward of up to $10 million for information leading to the disruption of the financial mechanisms of Hezbollah. "Mohammad Bazzi's been arrested, but Hezbollah is still collecting revenue through people like him. So you may be eligible for a reward if you submit information about Hezbollah's financial network," Rewards for Justice said in a tweet. On their website, the Rewards for Justice accuses Hezbollah of using funds to support its activities throughout the world, including: "deployment of its militia members to Syria in support of the Assad dictatorship; alleged operations to conduct surveillance and gather intelligence in the United States; and enhanced military capabilities to the point that Hezbollah claims to possess precision-guided missiles." "These terrorist operations are funded through Hezbollah’s international network of financial supporters and activities — financial enablers and infrastructure that form the group’s lifeblood," Rewards for Justice said. A Lebanese and Belgian citizen considered a key financier of Hezbollah, Bazzi, 58, was arrested in Bucharest on Friday. He had funneled millions of dollars to Hezbollah over the years, authorities said, and was labeled a "global terrorist" by the United States in 2018 when $10 million was offered for information about his whereabouts. The Department of State said it is now offering rewards for information leading to the identification and disruption of significant sources of revenue for Hezbollah, major Hezbollah donors and financial facilitators, financial institutions and exchange houses knowingly facilitating Hezbollah transactions, businesses and investments owned or controlled by Hezbollah, front companies engaged in international procurement of dual-use technology, and criminal schemes involving Hezbollah members and supporters, who are financially benefitting the organization.

International Support Group for Lebanon urges for swift president election
Naharnet/Thursday, 2 March, 2023
The International Support Group for Lebanon (ISG) -- launched by the U.N. Secretary-General with former President Michel Sleiman to help mobilize support and assistance for Lebanon’s stability, sovereignty and state institutions -- urged Thursday the political leadership and MPs to elect a new president "without further delay.""As the presidential vacancy enters its fifth month, amid lacking reforms, entrenching positions and deepening polarization, the International Support Group for Lebanon is gravely concerned about the ramifications of a prolonged presidential vacuum," the ISG said in a statement. The group urged the political leadership and Members of Parliament to "assume their responsibilities, act in line with the Constitution, and uphold the Taef agreement by electing a new President without further delay." "The status quo is unsustainable. It is paralyzing the State at all levels, profoundly undermining its ability to address the urgent socioeconomic, financial, security and humanitarian challenges and eroding people’s confidence in state institutions as hardships mount. "Eleven months after the Staff Level Agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Lebanon is yet to conclude a financial program. Expediting the adoption of laws necessary to restore confidence in the banking sector and the harmonization of exchange rates are vital to stem socioeconomic deterioration. Noting that the municipal elections were postponed for one year until May 2023, the ISG welcomes ongoing preparations to ensure the timely conduct of these elections. Renewing the mandate of municipal bodies, which are on the front line serving Lebanese citizens, is important to ensure the functioning of state institutions and strengthen confidence in local governance," the ISG said The statement strongly condemned the violent attack against a UNIFIL convoy in December 2022, which killed one of its members, in Al Aqbiyeh and said it expects the perpetrators to be held to account and swiftly brought to justice. The ISG added that ensuring judicial process is a necessary element to restoring the credibility of Lebanon’s state institutions, to implementing the rule of law and assigning proper accountability, and to ending impunity. "In this regard, the ISG notes with concern the lack of progress in the judicial proceedings on the Port of Beirut explosion of 4 August 2020.""he ISG continues to stand by Lebanon and its people," the statement concluded. The International Support Group, launched in September 2013, has brought together the United Nations and the governments of China, France, Germany, Italy, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States, together with the European Union and the Arab League. 

Lebanon: Major General Abbas Ibrahim Bids Farewell to General Security, Eyes Foreign Ministry
Lebanon - Nazeer Rida/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 2 March, 2023
Major General Abbas Ibrahim concluded a 12-year tenure at the head of the Lebanese General Security, but did not close the door to a future role that he would deem appropriate, including a potential ministerial portfolio. Ibrahim’s term as director general of the General Security Directorate ended on Thursday, as he reached retirement age of 64 in Lebanon. He was replaced by Brig. Gen. Elias Baisary as acting head of the agency. “My patriotic and practical duty requires me to be in any position that serves people and their rights… These goals have constituted the main items in the development plans that I have drawn up since I took over the responsibility at the General Directorate of General Security,” he said, addressing a ceremony on Wednesday. “We will continue the march in different fields to serve Lebanon,” he added. Ibrahim, who headed the General Security Directorate since 2011, is known for wide connections with different local, regional and international figures. The attempts of his allies, especially in the Amal movement and Hezbollah, failed to extend his term after he reached the legal retirement age. Ibrahim did not hide his desire to assume the ministry of Foreign Affairs, which some considered as a “consolation” for the non-renewal of his term, and a reward for the efforts he made for the release of hostages in Syria, and his prominent diplomatic work for Lebanon abroad. Ibrahim is known for his strong international relations, which prompted him to say during the ceremony at the General Security Directorate, that he would like to assume the foreign ministry. He also pledged to pursue political work. His diplomacy also helped him play a negotiating role between regional powers to release Lebanese, Syrian and international hostages who were being held in Syria by various parties.

Berri says Maronite disaccord complicating presidential vote
Naharnet/Thursday, 2 March, 2023
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri will not call for another "theatrical" session that would not elect a president. In an interview with al-Akhbar newspaper, Berri said that he will try to break the impasse and that he will only call for a session when he senses that the parties are ready to elect, not to "waste time" and "make statements.""Our candidate is known but their candidate is a test-tube experiment," Berri told al-Akhbar, in remarks published Thursday. "The only two serious candidates are Franjieh and Army chief Joseph Aoun," the speaker went on to say, adding tat it is currently impossible to elect the army chief, because it needs a constitutional amendment that cannot be made within a caretaker cabinet. The Shiite Duo MPs have cast blank votes during all the voting sessions, but their real presidential candidate is Marada leader, Suleiman Franjieh. Like many of Lebanon's prominent political figures, Franjieh hails from a storied dynasty. His grandfather and namesake was president when Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war broke out. In 1978, his father, politician Tony Franjieh, along with his mother and sister, were murdered by rival Christian fighters while he was elsewhere in the country. "We are trying to secure more votes for him," Berri said, explaining why the Duo hasn't officially voted for Franjieh yet. He added that the Duo is trying to convince Free Patriotic Movement leader Jebran Bassil to vote for Franjieh. Franjieh, a former lawmaker and minister close to Hezbollah and a personal friend of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, has not officially announced his candidacy, but said he was interested in the position. His name had been touted for the presidency many times before but he never secured enough support to win. Hezbollah and Amal back his candidacy, although Hezbollah's Christian ally the Free Patriotic Movement would not endorse him. “The main problem in the presidential elections is inter-Maronite,” Berri said, accusing the Maronites of failing to agree on a president. "Their disagreement is over who among them would be president," he went on to say. "They all know who they don't want to become president but are failing to agree on a president, so they get confused and further complicate the presidential election."

Mouawad lashes out at Berri over 'in vitro experiment' candidate
Naharnet/Thursday, 2 March, 2023
Presidential candidate MP Michel Mouawad on Thursday lashed out at Speaker Nabih Berri in a barb-filled statement, after the latter described him as an “in vitro experiment” candidate. Accusing Berri of having “usurped” the parliament speakership for the past 30 years, Mouawad said Berri’s remarks “befit him as a militiaman.”In an interview with al-Akhbar newspaper published Thursday, the Speaker had said: “Our candidate is serious and we have repeatedly insisted on him, while their candidate is merely an in vitro experiment.”In his statement, Mouawad said Berri’s remarks carried an attempted insult against his father, slain president Rene Mouawad, and all the MPs and blocs that have voted for the young lawmaker in the latest presidential election sessions. “The insult also targets Zgharta and the North, which have always been represented by Rene Mouawad and Nayla Mouawad in the best way possible,” Mouawad added, calling on Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh -- the candidate of Berri’s camp -- to say whether he accepts “the insult against Zgharta and the North.”Moreover, Mouawad added: “The Lebanese do not forget and will not forget Nabih Berri’s militia practices nor his siege of Beirut and its people and economy, nor its May 7 invasion, nor his siege along with his ally Hezbollah of the entire country to please foreign schemes.”He also blasted Berri as a “master of corruption that transcends presidential tenures and governments.”

Report: Opposition won't join LF in boycotting presidential vote
Naharnet/Thursday, 2 March, 2023
Most opposition MPs do not back Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea’s stance on boycotting presidential vote sessions should Hezbollah secure 65 votes for Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh, a media report said on Thursday. “The Progressive Socialist Party will not support Geagea and (Kataeb Party chief Sami) Gemayel in their decision to strip quorum from any session that would lead to Franjieh’s election,” Asharq al-Awsat newspaper reported. In this regard, MP Bilal Abdallah of the PSP-led Democratic Gathering bloc told the daily that they had not boycotted any session in the past and do not intend to do so in the future. “No matter the reasons, we do not impede institutions nor the presidency, the government or parliament. We reject this approach toward any juncture, especially that the country has fully disintegrated,” Abdallah added. The six MPs of the National Moderation bloc have also refused to block quorum, while the 12 MPs of the Change bloc have not voiced a unified stance. “As MP Paula Yacoubian stressed that she does not oppose such an approach, MPs Najat Saliba and Melhem Khalaf -- who are staging a sit-in in parliament -- have rejected this inclination,” Asharq al-Awsat said. MP Alain Aoun of the Free Patriotic Movement-led Strong Lebanon bloc meanwhile noted that his bloc is yet to discuss the matter. He, however, added: “Since the beginning of the voting sessions, our stance has been clear regarding participation in the sessions and refraining from impeding the presidential juncture.”

Clashes kill one in Palestinian refugee camp
Agence France Presse/Thursday, 2 March, 2023
One person was killed and several others wounded in overnight clashes in south Lebanon's restive Ain al-Helweh Palestinian refugee camp, a Palestinian official said Thursday. The clashes pitted members of Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas's Fatah movement against Islamist groups in the camp, located near the coastal city of Sidon, said senior Fatah official Mounir Makdah. "One person was killed and seven wounded," he told AFP, adding that "all Palestinian forces are working to put an end" to the violence. Clashes between rival groups are common in Ain al-Helweh, which is home to more than 54,000 registered Palestinian refugees who have been joined in recent years by thousands of Palestinians fleeing the conflict in Syria. An AFP correspondent said shooting had mostly subsided around dawn but that sporadic gunfire could still be heard later in the morning. The situation remained tense and armed men deployed to the streets of the camp, while schools run by the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, were closed. By long-standing convention, the Lebanese army does not enter Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon, leaving the factions themselves to handle security. That has created lawless areas in many camps, and Ain al-Helweh has gained notoriety as a refuge for extremists and fugitives. More than 450,000 Palestinians are registered with UNRWA in Lebanon. Most live in one of 12 official refugee camps, often in squalid conditions, and face a variety of legal restrictions, including on their employment.

Berri tackles general situation and transport and ports’ affairs with Hamieh, meets Sheikh Ali Bahsoun
NNA/Thursday, 2 March, 2023
House Speaker Nabih Berri, on Thursday received at the Second Presidency in Ain El-Tineh, Caretaker Minister of Public Works and Transport, Dr. Ali Hamieh, with whom he discussed the current general situation and affairs related to the transport and ports sectors.
Speaker Berri also received the Representative of Grand Ayatollah Sheikh Bashir al-Najafi in Lebanon and Syria, Sheikh Ali Bahsoun, in the presence of Mohammed Sawli.

Hamieh broaches local developments with Belgian Ambassador, says dialogue among Lebanese is gateway for electing a president
NNA/Thursday, 2 March, 2023
Caretaker Minister of Public Works and Transport, Dr. Ali Hamieh, on Thursday received in his office at the Ministry, Belgian Ambassador to Lebanon, Koen Vervaeke.The pair held a tour d’horizon on local developments, and matters involving the ministry, especially in terms of the reforms that were implemented in its affiliated facilities, notably in terms of activating work in the port of Beirut and its reconstruction plan. Caretaker Minister Hamieh stressed before his guest that "dialogue among the Lebanese represents the right way to end the presidential vacuum." Hamieh also underlined that the reforms undertaken by the Ministry in terms of ports and airports fall in the service of the state building.

PSP leader tackles developments with US Ambassador
NNA/Thursday, 2 March, 2023
Progressive Socialist Party leader, Walid Jumblatt, on Thursday welcomed at his Clemenceau residence US Ambassador, Dorothy Shea.
The meeting between the pair reportedly touched on the most recent developments

Oil prices edge up in Lebanon
NNA/Thursday, 2 March, 2023
Oil prices in Lebanon have edged up on Thursday afternoon as the price of gasoline (95 octanes) has increased by LBP 45,000 and (98 octanes) has increased by LBP 46,000. The price of diesel has increased by LBP 43,000 and the price of a gas canister has increased by LBP 30,000.
Consequently, the new prices are as follows:
95 octanes: LBP 1.482.000
98 octanes: LBP 1518.000
Diesel: LBP 1.409.000
Gas: LBP 994.000

Supermarkets mark prices in dollars as local currency tanks
Naharnet/Thursday, 2 March, 2023
Supermarkets in Lebanon have started pricing items in U.S. dollars instead of the nose-diving local currency, after a government announcement allowing the practice in a country heavily reliant on imports. Since late 2019, Lebanon has been facing a dramatic economic crisis that has seen poverty rates climb to reach more than 80 percent of the population, according to the United Nations. The local currency, now officially pegged at 15,000 to the greenback, was trading Wednesday at almost 90,000 to the dollar, compared to 60,000 in late January. An AFP photographer said a large supermarket chain in Beirut had begun displaying prices in dollars on Wednesday, while the exchange rate of 89,000 pounds was displayed on a screen at the entrance. Domestically produced fruit and vegetables were still priced in the local currency. "Every week, or every day even, products are becoming more and more expensive," said Susane Zeitoun, 28, who was shopping at the supermarket. "Now I have to calculate prices into Lebanese pounds," she added. In February, Economy Minister Amin Salaam announced that supermarkets would be able to start pricing items in dollars, while customers could pay in dollars or Lebanese pounds at the volatile market rate. Each store would have to clearly announce the exchange rate it was using each day, he had added. Since the start of the crisis, stores had begun to adjust their prices in pounds, sometimes daily, to keep up with the fluctuating exchange rate -- or at times pushing prices higher.
Some restaurants and clothing shops had already begun to display prices in dollars in recent months. Shopper Sarah Rida, 37, said that "pricing items in U.S. dollars is better". "If a product is priced at $2, we can be sure that it will stay the same and will not increase or decrease in price from one day to the next."Lebanon is being run by a caretaker government and is also without a president, as lawmakers have repeatedly failed to elect a successor to Michel Aoun, whose mandate expired at the end of October. Authorities announced in late February that customs charges would be tripled, a move that risks pushing prices up further. The World Bank has said that Lebanon food price inflation reached 332 percent year on year in June 2022, the worst in the world.

مايكل يانغ/ذي ناشيونال: لماذا من الصعب انتخاب رئيس جمهورية في لبنان
Why is it so difficult for Lebanon to elect its next president?
Michael Young/The National/March 02/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/116233/116233/
Finding Michel Aoun's successor requires consensus at the national, regional and international levels
When Michel Aoun left the Lebanese presidency last October, several observers assumed that finding a successor would be relatively easy, not least because none of the major political parties had an interest in blocking the election of a new president. Four months later, however, no compromise solution has been found, and many are wondering when, or if, there will be an agreement anytime soon.
The contours of a broader arrangement are in place, but for now seem to be at a standstill. They involve a consensus among regional and international powers and local political actors. It is increasingly clear that, given the severe economic crisis in Lebanon and the regional role of Hezbollah, a new president will have to satisfy a number of conditions. He (or she) has to be acceptable to regional states such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, and must have the confidence of the US and France.
Iran and Hezbollah seek a president who will not threaten the party’s status in Lebanon, while at the same time any new head of state must be able to show regional and international actors that he or she will not undermine their expectations. For Saudi Arabia and the western states, that means a president who will preserve good relations with Lebanon's Arab partners while also implementing much-delayed economic reform.
A few weeks ago, five countries – the US, France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt – held a meeting in Paris to outline the profile of the candidate they sought. They have underlined time and again the need for a consensual president who would implement reform, without ties to the corrupt patronage networks in the country. However, what does the road map the five have laid out mean in practical terms?
The first thing it apparently means is that Saudi Arabia will not invest itself on the Lebanese front for as long as Hezbollah is active in Yemen. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati confirmed this in an interview with Al-Jadeed TV last week when he described what Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had told him: “There is a party from Lebanon that is planning and plotting against Saudi Arabia in Yemen … If there is any aid to Lebanon, [the Crown Prince said he was] afraid this party could benefit.”
If Saudi Arabia holds back in Lebanon, this will put a brake on other Arab states, not least Qatar, which has played an axial role in trying to find a solution, given the fact that it can speak to all sides in the deadlock and act as a mediator. After having taken a more proactive line on the presidential election weeks ago, as confirmed by Arab diplomats, the Qataris reportedly stepped back.
What is interesting, however, is that Hezbollah and its allies have indicated a willingness to engage with the Gulf states. In an article last November, they floated a trial balloon through a media outlet affiliated with them, Al-Akhbar newspaper. In it, the editor, Ibrahim Amin, suggested a quid pro quo, whereby Hezbollah and its allies would choose a president and Saudi Arabia and its local allies would select a prime minister. Mr Amin even named names: Suleiman Franjieh as president and Nawaf Salam, a former Lebanese ambassador to the UN, as prime minister.
While Saudi Arabia had no reason to react to a newspaper story, the message was clear. After years of trying to block the Gulf states out of Lebanon, Hezbollah was suggesting a compromise. If there were doubts, a meeting was held in Beirut in early February between a representative of Lebanese Speaker Nabih Berri, who is also leader of the Amal Movement, and Walid Bukhari, the Saudi ambassador. Mr Berri’s representative reportedly stated that Hezbollah and Amal “sought a calming of relations with Saudi Arabia”.
In an interview published on February 23, Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s deputy secretary general, also affirmed that the president the party sought was someone who, among other things, could “establish relations with the Arab countries”.
The shift in Hezbollah’s position may be tied to the party’s realisation that the situation in Lebanon is so dire that the country cannot advance without a measure of Arab backing. Yet adding Mr Mikati’s remarks to the mix, it is clear that Riyadh will not reconsider its position on Lebanon until Iran and Hezbollah cede something in Yemen.
This suggests that the election of a president will remain blocked. Nor are the local dimensions preventing an election any less intricate. Hezbollah would like to see Mr Franjieh elected, but for now he faces major obstacles. Notably, the two major Christian parties, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and the Lebanese Forces, oppose him. The FPM, until recently, was a Hezbollah ally, while the Lebanese Forces is close to Riyadh.
Without Christian backing, Mr Franjieh (who is also a Maronite Christian, as are all presidents) would not have communal legitimacy, handicapping his presidency. Hezbollah and Amal would like to secure the votes needed in parliament to bring him in, but it is unlikely they can do so. Moreover, the FPM and Hezbollah have unofficially declared dead the agreement that bound them, signed in 2006, as FPM leader Gebran Bassil had expected the party to support his candidacy.
The only way out of the impasse is for local and regional actors to reach an agreement that takes all their preferences into consideration. It is conceivable that a package deal can be worked out eventually. But for now, even if talks are taking place behind the scenes, a positive outcome remains elusive, until one side makes a serious concession.

The growing to-do list
Nicholas Frakes/Now Lebanon/March 02/2023
Abbas Ibrahim’s retirement has created yet another empty post in a major political position that now needs to be filled, adding to the growing list of things that Lebanon’s politicians need to get done.
The influential head of Lebanon's General Security apparatus, Abbas
Lebanon’s General Security head Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim’s term as the country’s top security chief officially came to and end on Thursday, March 2, after Ibrahim reached the retirement age of 64 and Parliament failed to extend his tenure.
On Wednesday, March 1, Ibrahim left his office and was replaced by Brig. Gen. Elias Baisary, who will serve as the acting head of the security agency, adding to the growing list of things that cannot be done until a president is elected.
Who was Abbas Ibrahim?: Hailing from the Sidon district of southern Lebanon, Ibrahim enjoyed an extensive military career where he served as a bodyguard for then-President Elias Hraoui, was tasked with protesting then-Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, and headed the counter-terrorism and espionage department of Lebanon’s intelligence services prior to his appointment as head of General Security in 2011.
Ibrahim was known to have extensive connections throughout Lebanon, the region and abroad, allowing him to enjoy somewhat popular support at home and abroad.
The former security chief was one of the few who were able to work with both the United States and Hezbollah, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the US.
However, it was his relationship with the Syrian government that allowed him to work as a mediator to secure the release of western nationals who were arrested by the Syrian state security apparatus.
Despite multiple attempts, he was unable to secure the release of US freelance journalist Austin Tice, who is believed to have been in Syrian custody since 2012, something that the Syrian government has repeatedly denied.
The end of his career: In the buildup to Ibrahim’s retirement, the caretaker government of Najib Mikati indicated an interest in extending his term, but this never came to fruition.
In order for Ibrahim’s mandate to be extended, it would have required a vote in Parliament.
This vote never came, and Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri has yet to schedule a new session.
The end of Ibrahim’s career was also mired in some controversy after he was linked to the August 4, 2020 Beirut Port explosion which killed over 200 people and injured thousands more.
On February 24, Ibrahim was charged, along with seven others, in Judge Tarek Bitar’s investigation into the port explosion and was ordered to come in for questioning.
Ibrahim never ended up having to decide whether or not he would attend his interrogation as the political elite looking to end the investigation, once again, brought it to an indefinite halt.
The need for a president: While the role of General Security chief is not vacant, Baisary is only in the position in an acting capacity until a new head can be chosen, something that cannot happen until a new president is elected.
The president is required to sign off on the appointment of the country’s top security chief and Parliament has made no indications that it is anywhere close to coming to a consensus on a candidate.
The government is also only in a caretaker capacity, with a new prime minister needing to be designated to form a government, something that in itself is a long and protracted process that often takes months.
The economic crisis is also continuing to worsen, with the lira reaching a record low of 92,000 to $1 on Wednesday afternoon before the Central Bank (BDL) announced that it would be raising the rate on its Sayrafa platform to 70,000, which helped to bring the rate back down to around 80,000. This, though, is only a temporary measure that has been used multiple times by Lebanon’s Central Bank (BDL) to bring the rate down only for the lira to begin devaluing once more soon after.According to the constitution, Parliament cannot take on any other legislation once it has started voting to elect the next president.In conclusion: There are plenty of issues that need to be addressed in Lebanon, but for Parliament and the government to address them, it requires that a head of state be elected. There is still no parliamentary session scheduled to vote on a new president. But, even if there was, there is still no clear candidate who would receive the necessary votes to ascend to the presidency, meaning that the list of things that cannot be done until a president is elected will only grow for the foreseeable future.
*Nicholas Frakes is a senior reporter with @NOW_leb. He tweets @nicfrakesjourno.

د. دانيا قليلات الخطيب/عرب نيوز: الظروف في لبنان مهيأة للحرب الأهلية
Conditions in Lebanon ripe for civil war
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/March 02/ 2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/116238/dr-dania-koleilat-khatib-arab-news-conditions-in-lebanon-ripe-for-civil-war-%d8%af-%d8%af%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%8a%d8%a7-%d9%82%d9%84%d9%8a%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ae%d8%b7%d9%8a%d8%a8-%d8%b9/
Sheikh Ahmed Al-Rifai, a fierce critic of Hezbollah, was found dead on Saturday in the north of Lebanon. Almost immediately, Hezbollah’s opponents accused the group of carrying out the murder. Army intelligence and internal security officers quickly conducted an investigation and arrested the culprits. The ringleader is a relative of the slain sheikh, with whom he had long-standing animosity.
This incident shows how tense the situation in the country has become. If it were not for the army and security forces’ quick action, the murder of Al-Rifai would have unfolded into a sectarian clash. This time, the army saved the day. The question is, for how long can it keep the situation under control?
The obvious answer is not for long. The situation in Lebanon is not sustainable. The tension is very high and the only agent that is preventing total collapse is the army. The commander of the army has been on a fundraising spree to feed his soldiers. Last year, Qatar donated $60 million to prevent the disintegration of the armed forces, a scenario that would definitely lead to chaos. But what next? When this money is depleted, who, if anyone, will be the next donor to pay the salaries of the army? The situation is not sustainable. Lebanon needs a proper state with functioning institutions.
If we rewind what happened in the north, assuming that the army and security forces were dysfunctional and did not mobilize and conduct the investigation, what would have happened? For sure, there would have been a sectarian clash. Nevertheless, the army was quick to dispel the fallacies that Hezbollah killed the sheikh and to calm the situation.
However, even after the investigation concluded that a cousin of the victim was the assailant and it was a purely personal issue, the sectarian tension did not totally dissipate. Several people posted on Twitter an old picture of the culprit and his son, who was also his accomplice in the murder, showing them participating in a Hezbollah event commemorating the death of Imad Mughniyeh, the high-ranking official and former mastermind of its operations, trying to indirectly link the group to the murder.
This time, the army was able to prevent a widespread clash, but this will not necessarily be the case later on
Another question mark is raised over the murder regarding the loose control over arms in the country. The army found in the home of the assailant a warehouse of weapons. Hezbollah may be armed, but it is not the only armed entity in the country, and the animosity toward it is increasing. The different groups are blaming Hezbollah for the current deplorable situation. For example, the exchange rate has gone from 1,500 Lebanese pounds to the US dollar to 80,000 at the time of writing.
This time, the army was able to prevent a widespread clash, but this will not necessarily be the case later on. The army is low on resources and it relies on the resourcefulness of its commander, while banking on the loyalty of its soldiers and officers. At the same time, the army is being attacked by the political class. Gebran Bassil, the son-in-law of the last president, who is frustrated at seeing his hopes of succeeding his father-in-law fading away, is launching a fierce campaign against the army because its commander is the most favored candidate among the international community, as well as domestically. Hence, the country is edging toward an internal confrontation.
Every day, there is a clash of some sort. The army has so far been able to contain and localize those clashes, but it is exhausted and, if those clashes spread and the army finds itself unable to contain them, the country will plunge into chaos — a chaos that might lead to another civil war.
Lebanon can either conduct reforms and have a state with functioning institutions or face chaos. However, chaos in Lebanon, which would lead to internal alignments and could result in a civil war, would be very destabilizing to the region. It could also be destabilizing for the EU. Already, people are risking their lives and leaving the country illegally in the hope of reaching Europe. It is not even in Israel’s interest to have instability in Lebanon. Though some pundits advocate that the best way to get rid of Hezbollah is to let the country break down on its head, Israel does not need another Gaza on its northern frontier.
The EU has created a framework for sanctions on political actors but it has not activated it. Member states should act quickly and start applying pressure on the different political figures to push them to end the deadlock, elect a president and put in place a government that is committed to reform, rather than looking after the different political parties’ interests and clientelist networks. The clock is ticking.
The Al-Rifai episode should be a wake-up call for Hezbollah. Its position is also not sustainable anymore. Its hegemony over the country is no longer tolerated. It cannot maintain its maximalist positions. It needs to compromise and understand that its safety valve should be the state, as only a strong state can keep everyone in their rightful place. A weak state will definitely allow Hezbollah to expand, but it also allows its opponents to confront it.
Even though a civil war is not in anyone’s interest, this does not mean it will not happen. People do not go to war because it is in their interest to do so, they do so because they are threatened. At the moment, Hezbollah feels threatened by the increasing internal opposition and the anti-Hezbollah camp is threatened by the former’s hegemony. This is why the different parties could be dragged into a war. Hence, there is no substitute for reforms and for having a state that will provide services to the people and ensure law and order.
*Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is president of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.

Damascus Documents reveal story behind creation of Hezbollah
Al Majalla obtains Damascus Documents which reveal how Iran founded Hezbollah in Lebanon in the 1980s
https://en.majalla.com/node/286901/documents-memoirs/damascus-documents-reveal-story-behind-creation-hezbollah
Ibrahim Hamidi/Al Majalla/February 26/2023
The story of the relationship between Damascus and Tehran over the last four decades is remarkable. Its evolution reveals much about the changing fortunes of the Middle East and the politics of its nations and alliances.
Syria was Iran’s gateway into the region as Tehran sought to establish the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and spread its influence in the wider region from its base in Lebanon.
For the last 10 years, the survival of the regime in Syria has depended on the support of Iran and Iranian militias — especially before Russia’s meddling in Syria from 2015. During this time, Syria became a conduit for Iran’s influence in the region.
In this article, Al Majalla reviews key stages in the relationship between the two countries, from the pivotal year of 1979 (the ‘Islamic’ Revolution) until present day and reveals in detail what happened at a meeting between two major political figures that would shape politics for a generation, with consequences that are being felt right up to present day.
The revelations come from official documents that the late Syrian Vice President Abdel Halim Khaddam took with him in 2005 to Paris before announcing his defection. The documents detail a meeting between two key figures, who spoke to each other at a pivotal time for their respective countries, the Middle East and the world.
But first, we look at the context of those turbulent and defining times. Syria’s leader at the time, President Hafez al-Assad, sought closer ties with Tehran the moment he saw that Iran’s revolution had prevailed.
A range of various issues and circumstances were also in play during this time when the region was witnessing wider geopolitical flux.
Egypt had signed the Camp David Accords with Israel; President Saddam Hussein of Iraq had reneged on the Charter of Joint Arab Action by Syria and Iraq of 1978; and a dispute had broken out between Damascus and the Palestine Liberation Organisation led by Yasser Arafat.
Al-Assad saw a way through all this disruption for his country via Iran in 1979, taking a path which also led to the signing of a friendship treaty with the Soviet Union in the early 1980s.
At the time, al-Assad benefited from the presence of Iranian figures who opposed the Iranian Shah in Lebanon and soon assumed power in Tehran after the revolution.
Syria had already been politically active in Lebanon for years, which provided fertile ground to support the leaders of the Liberation Movement of Iran in Lebanon, via the Amal Movement — a Lebanese Shiite political organisation and former militia. Musa al-Sadr was considered to be the leader of the movement. He was also the head of the Supreme Islamic Shiite Council.
Among the movement's key members alongside him, and the figures who were to shape the future, were the first prime minister in Iran after the revolution, Mahdi Bazarkan; his deputy, Sadiq Tabatabaei, al-Sadr’s nephew; and ministers including Ibrahim Yazdi, the foreign minister who was succeeded by Sadiq Qutbzadeh, and Mustafa Shamran, who later took over the Ministry of Defence.
But an encounter between two other men turned out to be one of the region’s most significant moments — one that would impact and shape the region’s geopolitics for decades to come.
Al Majalla has obtained the memoirs of one of these men — the late Syrian Vice President Abdel Halim Khaddam. These memoirs, which came to be known as the Damascus Documents, reveal exactly what happened when he met the person chief among this cast of political figures: Ayatollah Khomeini, the force behind Iran’s revolution and the country’s first supreme leader after it.
Warm congratulations
Al-Assad seized the opportunity presented by the change wrought in Tehran in the last year of the 1970s. He took the initiative to send a "warm congratulations" message to Khomeini, in which he outlined "Syria's keenness on comprehensive cooperation" with Iran.
Fresh out of its revolution, Tehran was thirsty for influence in the Levant. It responded with an even warmer gesture, as Khaddam’s account makes clear.
He received an invitation from Iran's foreign minister, Ibrahim Yazdi, in early August 1979. Khaddam, who at the time was foreign minister, wasted no time. He arrived in Tehran on 15 August and was greeted by Yazdi and Sadeq Tabatabaei, the deputy prime minister.
Ahead of the encounter that would shape much of what was to follow, Khaddam was awakened at three o'clock in the morning by one of his staffers who informed him that a group of dignitaries wanted to meet him, including Sheikh Muhammad Montazeri, son of Hussein Ali Montazeri who was then Khomeini's deputy.
The "revolutionary young man" preceded to launch a scathing critique of the ruling Baath party in Syria, then asked to pray jama’ah, in congregation with Khaddam.
Khaddam met with Mehdi Bazargan, Iran’s then prime minister, in the presence of Yazdi, the minister of foreign affairs, and Tabatabai, the deputy prime minister. The three officials told Khaddam that the revolution in Iran "will work to build strong relations with brotherly Syria.
Historic encounter
Khaddam later went with Yazdi to the Iranian city of Qom to visit with Khomeini, making him the first and only Syrian official to meet him.
The encounter began in an ordinary residential area in Qom.
"At the entrance of the house,” says Khaddam, “We greeted a Sheikh who sat at a small desk, passing into another small room, no bigger than six square meters, with an ordinary carpet on the floor.
Khomeini was there, sitting on the floor. He got up to greet us, then sat down again, and we all joined him on the floor. He understood Arabic very well and did not need translation when he spoke to Arab interlocutors. Still, he would always respond in Farsi.”
At the entrance of the house, we greeted a Sheikh who sat at a small desk, passing into another small room, no bigger than six square meters, with an ordinary carpet on the floor. Khomeini was there, sitting on the floor. He got up to greet us, then sat down again, and we all joined him on the floor. He understood Arabic very well and did not need translation when he spoke to Arab interlocutors. Still, he would always respond in Farsi.
Khomeini did not speak much, but in the short conversation, they emphasised strengthening relations, "and asked me to convey his thanks to President al-Assad, his greetings to him, and his keenness on having solid connections with Syria."
Khaddam comments: "The interview was short and symbolic, but it was crucial for me to understand the man's determination, which I sensed in every phrase he uttered." 
"When I returned to Damascus," Khaddam explained, "I briefed Hafez on the visit, and we found that conditions were ripe for cooperation with the new regime in Iran."
Al-Assad had immense confidence in Musa al-Sadr. After his disappearance in Libya on 31 August 1978, this confidence was placed in Nabih Berri.
Iran did not have a political or military presence in Lebanon, or any influence in Lebanon for that matter, before 1980. The Iranian presence was symbolic, represented by a group of opposition figures who took power after the revolution.
The most effective Iranian activity in Lebanon was during the Israeli invasion of Lebanese territory in early June 1982, when the Iranian leadership took the decision to send a brigade from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) with experts to Syria, whose forces had entered the country in 1976.
The IRGC brigade arrived a few days after the fighting broke out.
Most of these troops and experts went to Lebanon, to the Sheikh Abdullah barracks, in the Baalbek-Hermel region. It was this group that established Hezbollah. Also, among the founding contributors was the Islamic Dawa Party in Lebanon.
At that stage, the IRGC focused on organisation, ideology, political preparation, and training. It also focused on selecting party members after careful and extensive vetting in order to avoid any infiltrations.
In building Hezbollah, Iran benefited from its good relationship with Syria. Tehran managed to build a political and military base in Lebanon. It became active across various fronts of the Arab-Israeli conflict and became a political player in the country and the wider region.
Problems arise
Al-Assad's regime in Syria maintained a balance within Lebanon and within its Arab perimeter. It often mediated between Tehran and Arab countries and between various parties and factions in Lebanon.
Damascus managed to separate the forces of the Progressive Socialist Party led by Walid Jumblatt, and the Amal Movement, led by Nabih Berri, after the War of El Alamein in 1986.
But months later, problems arose between Hezbollah and military observers in the Syrian intelligence. Four Syrian observers were killed by Hezbollah, after they attacked the Fathallah Barracks in Beirut in an attempt to take over their headquarters.
In mid-February 1987, a delegation of Lebanese Islamic leaders arrived in Damascus to meet Khaddam, who had been appointed three years earlier as vice president.
The delegation issued a call for Syrian forces "to interfere and impose security in Beirut, after clashes and chaos in the city" and to confront Hezbollah with weapons.
Khaddam briefed al-Assad, who decided to send a military unit to impose security across Beirut, including the area around Hezbollah's Fatallah Barracks.
Hours later, Syrian special forces went to the barracks and asked Hezbollah to leave and hand over their weapons. Clashes took place, which were said to be in response to the earlier killings of the Syrian observer unit personnel.
The fighting killed 22 people in total from both sides and ended with Syrian forces taking control of the barracks.
It was at this point when Iran moved to protect Hezbollah.
To this end, the Iranian ambassador in Damascus, Hasan Akhtari, met Khaddam on 3 March 1987. According to the minutes of the meeting, Akhtari told Khaddam: "In regard to the killing of a group of men, women, and children, this incident has upset officials in Iran. The impression in Iran is still that this was a reckless and irresponsible act."
He requested that the Syrian forces not enter the southern suburbs of Beirut, which was gradually becoming Hezbollah's stronghold.
Akhtari went on to refer to the Syrian intelligence official in Lebanon at the time: "Brigadier General Ghazi Kanaan stated that the Syrian forces will enter the southern suburb. Does the security plan include the southern suburb?" He also raised the "seizing of arms" of Iran's supporters in Beirut.
"There is another point," Akhtari added: "The issue of confiscating weapons from Muslim homes in West Beirut. I recall my meeting with President Hafez al-Assad while presenting my credentials. I talked about this issue, and said: This issue is not on our table. It is not a question that we take their weapons, but rather we will give them arms to struggle and fight."
Hezbollah infiltrated
When Akhtari concluded his discourse, Khaddam stressed his country's keenness for "the existing strong and fraternal relations" with Iran. "We feel sorry for making such statements, including the statement of Dr. Velayati and the Seminary, and part of the statement of Mousavi, who said: 'Whoever lays his hand on Hezbollah serves Israel and America'".
Khaddam added, "Remember that we have alerted several times to infiltration into this organisation by three parties: Yasser Arafat, the Iraqi proxies, and the Lebanese Military Second Bureau . We have warned of the dangers of these infiltrations because we were afraid that this clique that penetrated Hezbollah would carry out actions that would harm its role in Lebanon."
Ironically, Khaddam was alluding to the fact that Arafat had "infiltrated" Hezbollah through Imad Mughniyeh, who became a prominent military leader in Hezbollah and was allegedly assassinated by the Israelis on 12 February 2008.
According to the minutes, Khaddam asked Akhtari, "Is Imad Mughniyeh in Hezbollah or not?" The ambassador replied: "I have not met with him and do not know him. To my knowledge, he is not from the formations nor from Hezbollah. Khaddam told him: "I accept your word."
The ambassador continued to clarify the issue of Hezbollah's infiltration, saying to Khaddam, "With regard to what you said about the fact that there is infiltration into Hezbollah, I do not deny that. Arafat could infiltrate some personnel. However, if we look at this party and its public goals, it could concur with Arafat."
Khaddam replied: "I distinguish between Hezbollah as a leadership and some personnel," adding: "The issue of (entering) the southern suburb is not up for discussion. While Syria does not intend to strike Hezbollah, it cannot accept its refusal to abide by the security plan... Iranian officials should not compare Hezbollah and Syria." 
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Syria sought to strengthen its relations in the Arab world and internationally. It participated in the Gulf War and entered the peace process with Israel under American auspices in 1991. At first, talks were focused on the return of the Golan Heights in exchange for peace.
Some later initiatives also involved bartering and offering acceptance of Syria's continued presence in Lebanon in exchange for disarming Hezbollah.
In the mid-1990s, when Saddam Hussein was under sanctions and siege, he exchanged secret messages with Hafez al-Assad, arranging a covert summit between them.
Responding to the progress between the two presidents via these means, Syria sent Khaddam to Paris in 1996 to meet with President Jacques Chirac of France, to inform him of the decision to open the Syrian-Iraqi border, which had been closed since 1982.
That meeting demonstrated the faith Damascus had in the French leader after diplomatic efforts to end the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah produced the 1996 agreement between the two sides, known as the April Understanding.
And so, Chirac met with Khaddam later that same year, on 31 July. According to the minutes, the pair touched on indirect secret talks between al-Assad and Israel's then prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.
"What interest does Israel have in having a military presence in southern Lebanon?" Chirac asked.
He continued: "If I were in Netanyahu's shoes, I would unconditionally withdraw my forces from southern Lebanon and create a problem for everyone ... This assumes the Lebanese army will guarantee the entire border and disarm Hezbollah. This, of course, is related to and concerns Syria. Syria cannot accept that for free. What is the return? Withdrawing from the Golan Heights and ensuring its military presence in Lebanon for some time."
These statements directly linked the Syrian presence in Lebanon with the disarmament of Hezbollah. The same bargain was repeatedly floated in the years to come.
Turning point
When Bashar al-Assad came to power in 2000, several attempts were made to reach a Syrian- Israeli peace agreement — one of which was mediated by Turkey between 2007 and 2008. It was an attempt to reverse Syria's global isolation after the assassination of Rafik Hariri, Lebanon's prime Minister, and its military withdrawal from Lebanon in 2005.
Hezbollah filled the security vacuum after Syria's withdrawal and became a key player in Beirut.
There is no doubt that this was fundamentally the beginning of the shift in the direction of the relationship between Damascus, on the one hand, and Tehran and Hezbollah, on the other.
Hezbollah gained more prominence and instead of Hezbollah needing Syria's backing to maintain influence in Lebanon, the Syrian regime ended up relying on Hezbollah to remain in power.
Following the assassination of Rafik Hariri and Syria's military withdrawal from Lebanon, Hezbollah gained more prominence. Instead of Hezbollah needing Syria's backing to maintain influence in Lebanon, the Syrian regime ended up relying on Hezbollah to remain in power.
Between April 2009 and mid-March 2011, US envoy Fred Hof mediated Syrian-Israeli talks. On 27 February 2011, Hof arrived in Damascus and met al-Assad the following day, handing him a paper.
In his book, Reaching for the Heights: The Inside Story of a Secret Attempt to Reach a Syrian-Israeli Peace, Hof quotes al-Assad as saying: "Everyone will be surprised at the speed with which Hassan Nasrallah, secretary general of Hezbollah, will commit once Syria and Israel announce a peace agreement."
Hof asked al-Assad: "How will he have such a conviction, given Nasrallah's loyalty to Iran and the Iranian 'revolution'?" Al-Assad replied that Nasrallah was an Arab, not a Persian.
The US envoy added that then president of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, "assured me that if peace is reached with Israel, Nasrallah will not be able to maintain his current position as leader of the 'resistance.'"
The Syrian uprising
Anti-regime protests broke out in Syria in mid-March 2011. On 18 March, Syrian security forces responded to demonstrations in Daraa with extreme violence. American mediation was subsequently suspended.
In a letter to the State Department the next day, US President Barack Obama said: "Al-Assad must lead a democratic transition or get out of the way."  On 19 August, Obama went further, saying "the time has come for President al-Assad to step aside."
With the situation in Syria unfolding, Tehran ramped up its intervention towards the end of 2012, sending militias and experts to support al-Assad. Later, Hezbollah fought alongside forces marshalled by Damascus to crush the revolution.
With the conflict becoming protracted and Damascus in retreat, Tehran persuaded Moscow to intervene. At the end of 2015, Russia sent troops to Syria which ultimately shifted the balance in favour of al-Assad.
The escalation of the conflict turned Syria into battleground for proxies. With the established order challenged, world and regional powers clashed and battled for influence and a piece of the pie.
Syria was effectively divided into three smaller states, in which five armies were fighting — American, Russian, Iranian, Turkish, and Israeli.
Hundreds of militias and thousands of fighters were deployed to the war-torn state. Syria — once a mediator between Iran and the Arabs and a regulator of Hezbollah in Lebanon — now depended on support from Tehran and the forces within its own southern suburb.
On its part, Iran sought to make Syria a strategic base for its influence in the Levant and the rest of the Arab world.
With the situation in flux amid an escalation in troop deployments and various military presences, Israel intensified its raids on Iranian sites in Syria — whether in coordination with Russia or in agreement with America.
It is the presence of Iran and its proxies that has become one of the main considerations of the regional and international politics centred on Damascus. Some players wish to reduce the presence of Iran and its proxies in Syria, while others have outright called for Tehran to leave the country.
These developments served as an ultimate test of the importance of the alliance between Damascus and Tehran for the survival of the regime in the last decade.
A Palestinian official with close ties to Iran and Hezbollah outlined the significance with stark clarity: "Syria is the crown jewel of Iranian influence in the region, a backyard for Iraq, a bridge to Lebanon, a corridor to the sea, and a crossing to the borders of Israel."
Syria is the crown jewel of Iranian influence in the region, a backyard for Iraq, a bridge to Lebanon, a corridor to the sea, and a crossing to the borders of Israel. Palestinian official.
There is no doubt that any change to this alliance — whether through agreements, or as a result of domestic protests in Iran which are weakening the state — will leave shadows on this "Iranian Crescent" in the region.
Syria, once a key player in the region, has become a playground for the conflicts of others and a measure of Iran's external influence or its retreat.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 02-03/2023
New US sanctions target Iranian petroleum, petrochemical trade
Reuters/March 02, 2023
WASHINGTON: The United States imposed sanctions on Thursday on firms it said had transported or sold Iranian petroleum or petrochemical products in violation of US restrictions, including two companies based in China. The sanctions are part of a Washington push to curb Iranian oil smuggling and come as efforts to revive Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal have stalled in part due to increasingly strained ties between the Islamic Republic and the West. In a statement, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the sanctions target 11 firms and 20 affiliated shipping vessels that had facilitated Iran’s petroleum and petrochemical trade. “These designations underscore our continued efforts to enforce our sanctions against Iran,” Blinken said. Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York accused the Biden administration of “basically repeating the failed maximum pressure policy of the former US government,” referring to former President Donald Trump’s administration. “Iran has gotten used to these sanctions, but if the US wants to return to JCPOA (the Iran nuclear deal) one day, it will be challenging for the US government to lift all of them,” Iran’s UN mission told Reuters. Two of the sanctioned firms are based in China, according to the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control. The sanctions freeze the firms’ US assets and generally bar Americans from dealing with them. The US issued the sanctions under a 2018 US executive order that restored sanctions targeting Iran’s oil, banking and transportation sectors. Trump imposed the 2018 order after abandoning the 2015 nuclear deal, which reined in Iran’s nuclear program in return for relief from economic sanctions. President Joe Biden’s administration has tried but failed to revive the pact over the last two years. On Thursday, the Treasury Department issued a general license authorizing limited transactions with the 20 sanctioned vessels under what it called a “wind-down” period through June 29, a document on its website showed.

France: Iran Uranium Enrichment 'Very Concerning'
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 2 March, 2023
France on Thursday called developments in Iran's nuclear program "very concerning" after the UN nuclear watchdog reported finding uranium particles enriched just under the 90 percent needed for an atomic bomb. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report described inspectors discovering on Jan. 21 that two cascades of IR-6 centrifuges at Iran’s Fordo facility had been configured in a way “substantially different” to what had been previously declared. The IAEA took samples the following day, which showed particles with up to 83.7% purity, the report said. "This report states that the direction Iran is taking is very concerning," French foreign ministry spokeswoman Anne-Claire Legendre told reporters, adding this development was "unprecedented and extremely serious". Last week, Iran claimed it had not made any attempt to enrich uranium beyond 60 percent. The head of the IAEA is to meet with Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran on Saturday to try to "relaunch the dialogue" on the country's atomic work, a diplomatic source said Wednesday. The IAEA tweeted that Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi would hold a news conference upon his return from Iran to Vienna on Saturday. Iran has been enriching uranium well over the limits laid down in a landmark 2015 deal with world powers, which started to unravel when the United States withdrew from it in 2018.

Iran Conducts Drill to Defend ‘Sensitive Sites’
London - Adil al-Salmi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 2 March, 2023
Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, said that Iran had conducted “realistic” military maneuvers in sensitive locations that could be a potential target for foreign attacks. The drills come at a time international fears of Iran enriching weapon-grade uranium are increasingly growing. Bagheri told state television that the joint exercises of the air defense units of the Revolutionary Guards and the army are taking place in “realistic” conditions in areas that “could be targeted by enemies and possible threat scenarios.”Iranian Defense Minister Mohammad Reza Gharaei Ashtiani had played down the US’ announcement of holding joint naval maneuvers in the region. On the sidelines of a government meeting, Ashtiani told reporters that the US-led naval maneuvers were held for various reasons, including “preserving the morale of soldiers who have been stationed for months in the region.”
The minister refused to allow the “international naval exercise” led by the US Central Command (CENTCOM) in the region, which will continue until mid-March, to threaten Iran. “Holding maneuvers is not a reason to launch a military operation, and there are other reasons,” Ashtiani told reporters.
“We do not have conclusions about a military operation, but Iran is constantly alert,” he added. The state-run Mehr news agency said Iranian forces had trained to counter cruise missile attacks. During the drill, the agency reported that hostile targets were taken down by the domestically developed Khordad air defense system. Moreover, the Dezful defense system of the Revolutionary Guard’s aerospace force and the Majid defense system of the Iranian army were deployed at the joint air defense military drills on Tuesday. “We warn the US that any support for the actions of the Israeli military against Iran would endanger the lives of American soldiers in the region,” said the Commander of the Khatam al-Anbia Headquarters, Maj. Gen. Gholam Ali Rashid. The Khatam al-Anbia Headquarters coordinates joint operations by the Revolutionary Guard and the Iranian army. “Taking threats seriously and being prepared to defend and attack the enemy is the logic that oversees carrying out maneuvers,” said Maj. Gen. Rashid. Tensions have recently escalated between Tehran and the West. Reasons behind strained ties include Tehran’s nuclear program and its supply of weapons, such as explosive drones, to Russia in its war with Ukraine. Additionally, Tehran has been brutal in suppressing anti-establishment demonstrations.

British Navy Seizes Smuggled Iranian Weapons in Gulf of Oman
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 2 March, 2023
Britain's Royal Navy said on Thursday it had seized Iranian weapons, including anti-tank guided missiles, last month from a smugglers vessel in international waters in the Gulf of Oman. The boat was heading from Iran likely to Yemen. Britain said the vessel was detected traveling south from Iran at high speed during the hours of darkness by an unmanned US intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance plane, and was also tracked by a British helicopter. When hailed by the Royal Navy, the vessel initially attempted to navigate to Iranian territorial waters but was stopped by a team of Royal Marines, who then boarded the small boat and recovered the suspicious packages, Britain's Ministry of Defense said. "This seizure by HMS Lancaster and the permanent presence of the Royal Navy in the Gulf region supports our commitment to uphold international law and tackle activity that threatens peace and security around the world," British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said in a statement. Inside the boat, British troops found Russian 9M133 Kornet anti-tank guided missiles, known in Iran as “Dehlavieh,” the US Navy's Mideast-based 5th Fleet and the British navy said. Those weapons have been seen in other seizures suspected to be from Iran and bound for Yemen. Also on board were small fins that the US Navy identified as jet vanes for medium-range ballistic missiles. Britain said that it had informed the United Nations about the seizure. A UN resolution bans arms transfers to Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militias.
The Feb. 23 raid follows two previous Royal Navy seizures of Iranian weapons in the region early last year.

Over 100 Schoolgirls Hospitalized In Iran over Gas Poisoning
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 2 March, 2023
More than 100 students were hospitalized in Iran after a new spate of suspected gas attacks on girls’ schools Wednesday, media outlets in Iran reported. Hundreds of cases of respiratory distress have been reported in the past three months among schoolgirls across Iran, in what one government official has said could be an attempt to force the closure of girls’ schools. At least 10 girls’ schools were targeted in the latest suspected attacks on Wednesday, seven of them in the northwestern city of Ardabil and three in the capital Tehran, media reported. The incident in Ardabil forced the hospitalization of 108 students, all of whom were in stable condition, said Tasnim news agency, which also reported poisonings at three schools in Tehran. Citing parents, Fars news agency said students at a high school in the capital’s western neighborhood of Tehransar had been exposed to a toxic spray. It did not elaborate. Fars said the security forces had detained three people in the first reported arrests over the wave of suspected poisoning attacks on girls’ schools. Since the outbreak of the mysterious poisonings in November, almost 1,200 students have required hospitalization for breathing difficulties, a lawmaker said Wednesday. They included nearly 800 in the holy city of Qom, south of Tehran, and 400 in the western city of Borujerd, said Zahra Sheikhi, spokesperson for the Iranian parliament’s health committee. Health ministry tests on the substance found at the schools in Qom detected traces of nitrogen, which is mainly used in fertilizers, the parliament’s website said, according to AFP. The poisonings have provoked a wave of anger in the country, where critics denounced the silence of the authorities in the face of the growing number of affected schools. On Sunday, Iran’s deputy health minister, Younes Panahi, said some people had been poisoned in Qom with the aim of shutting down education for girls. Activists have compared those responsible for the attacks on schools to the Taliban in Afghanistan and the Boko Haram in the Sahel, who oppose girls’ education.

Iranian Dissident Masih Alinejad Won't Be Silenced
Astha Rajvanshi/Time/March 2, 2023
It’s been 13 years since Masih Alinejad hugged her mother. That realization hits her during a TIME interview in early February, followed by another one: “Oh my God, I forgot my mom’s face,” she says, wide-eyed and shaking her head in disbelief. She stops and composes herself. “Look, I don’t want to cry on camera.”Alinejad, 46, understands the power of her platform. Exiled from Iran since 2009, the journalist and activist has long spoken out against Iran’s restrictions on women, calling the compulsory hijab “the Berlin Wall” of the regime. Her campaign alarmed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who not only rails against her in speeches but even sent his minions to kidnap her in July 2021. One year later, a similar plot was to end in assassination, according to a U.S. Justice Department indictment. “Women of Iran are his biggest enemy,” Alinejad says. “He’s scared of us more than anything.”
And the women of Iran are angry. Months-long, nationwide protests have roiled the country after a 22-year-old woman, Mahsa “Jina” Amini, died in September in the custody of the notorious “morality police” who roam public spaces to enforce Islamic dress and behavior.
Still, Alinejad arrives in surprisingly good spirits at TIME’s New York City studio, coming from the FBI safe house where she is in hiding with her husband and son. She understands that attention feeds a rebellion built on the slogan “Woman, life, freedom.” Regime forces have killed more than 500 protesters and detained thousands more; the streets have grown quieter in recent weeks. But the depth of her connection with Iran’s young people—she has nearly 9 million Insta­gram followers—tells her the Islamic Republic is living on borrowed time. As the photographer works, she sings. “The words mean: because I am a woman, I blossom through my wounds.”Alinejad grew up in a tiny village near the Caspian Sea, where her father was a share­cropper. She found purpose as a newspaper ­reporter in Tehran but left Iran for good in 2009 after running afoul of the regime for, among other things, reporting that lawmakers had not taken a pay cut they’d claimed. “I asked too many questions,” she recalls. When she first began speaking out in New York, her only weapon was social media. In 2014, she launched a campaign called My Stealthy Freedom, asking women inside Iran to record themselves without hijabs; she would upload their videos to her Insta­gram, Twitter, and Facebook accounts. Thousands of women have obliged over the years, the campaign branding itself with the hashtag #WhiteWednesdays.
“Iran is inside me,” she says. “I am there every single day through my social media.” The videos and social media connections remain a way for her to connect with her homeland, where her elderly mother still resides. In November, French President Emmanuel Macron, seemingly moved by a meeting with four Iranian women—including Alinejad—declared the protests a “revolution.” She has also briefed U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and met with other exiled Iranian dissidents to discuss ways of uniting a fragmented opposition. And she has asked female politicians to stop donning the hijab. “I am asking all Western feminists to speak up. Join us. Make a video. Cut your hair. Burn a head­scarf. Share it on social media and boost Iranian voices. Use your freedom to say her name,” she wrote last year. As she speaks, Alinejad looks around the studio. For once, her own phone isn’t in her hand. She has just been talking about young girls—16-year-old Sarina Esmailzadeh and 17-year-old Nika Shakarami, both beaten to death in protests last year—and she wants to put faces to their names by showing TIME photos and videos of them. When these girls were killed, she says, “suddenly they became heroes. Why don’t people pay attention to women when they’re alive?”

Bill on ‘Executing Prisoners’ Passes Preliminary Knesset Vote
Ramallah - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 2 March, 2023
The Knesset on Wednesday advanced a bill to impose the death penalty on Palestinian captives, approving it in its preliminary reading. The primary legislation stipulates that courts will be able to impose the death penalty on those who have committed a nationalistically motivated murder of an Israeli. According to the proposed bill, a mandatory death penalty would be imposed on intentional acts causing the death of an Israeli citizen “with the objective of harming Israel and uprooting the Jewish people from the country”. The bill - approved 55-9 - was submitted by MK Limor Son Har Melech from the Otzma Yehudit party. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the government “will continue to operate in all ways… to deter terrorists.” Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara was set to oppose the law on the grounds that it poses significant constitutional difficulties and goes against Israel’s declarations on the matter in international forums and against the international trend of limiting the use of the death sentence. A joint statement by Netanyahu and Israel’s far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said that the initial bill advanced Sunday stipulates that “courts will be able to impose a death penalty on those who committed a nationalistically motivated murder offense against a citizen of Israel.”The bill will later be discussed by the high-level security cabinet. Adalah, a human rights and legal center in Israel, condemned the bill for exclusively targeting Palestinians. Voting on the bill could exacerbate the tension in Israeli prisons. The Israeli prisons suppression units attacked on Wednesday the departments of captives in Negev prison. The Commission of Detainees' and Ex-Detainees' Affairs said that the Israeli forces attacked the captives and used excessive force against them. Tension prevails in the Negev prison following an attempt by the Israeli Prison Administration to impose new sanctions on the captives, according to the Commission. In the same context, the Palestinian Prisoners' Club also spoke about the current tension in the Negev prison. The inmates have been on a strike for two weeks as a form of objection against Ben Gvir's steps including the transfer of inmates between prisons, and depriving them of privileges.

Sara Netanyahu barricaded into hair salon by protesters over judicial reforms
James Rothwell/The Telegraph/Thu, March 2, 2023
The Israeli prime minister's wife was rescued from a hair salon by security forces on Wednesday night after protesters blocked the entrance, demanding an end to the government's plan for controversial legal reforms. Sara Netanyahu was whisked out of the salon after being trapped there for several hours while demonstrators chanted "shame" and "the country is burning and Sara is getting a haircut". Benjamin Netanyahu later posted a picture of himself on social media consoling his wife, with the caption: "My beloved wife, glad you returned home safely and unharmed. The anarchy must stop - it can cost lives."Tens of thousands of Israelis have taken to the streets in weekly demonstrations this year demanding that Mr Netanyahu abandon his proposals to overhaul the country's legal system. Critics of the reforms say they will hugely increase the government's influence over the judiciary and neuter the Israeli supreme court, while supporters say the move will strip the courts of a Left-wing bias. Polls suggest the reforms are generally unpopular, with a majority of Israelis preferring a compromise on them, as has been suggested by the country's president, Isaac Herzog. The reforms have also been criticised by Israeli business leaders, who have raised concerns that they could scare off investment. During Wednesday's protests, Israelis waved blue-and-white national flags and blocked roads before marching on Tel Aviv and later Jerusalem. In Tel Aviv, police deployed stun grenades, water cannons and tear gas on protesters. One clip on social media showed an Israeli officer putting his knee on a protester's neck while detaining him. The protesters were criticised later on Wednesday by Mr Netanyahu, who tweeted: "The right to protest is not the right to anarchy."

Israeli campaign raises funds for torched Palestinian town
ISAAC SCHARF and AMI BENTOV/YOKNEAM, Israel (AP)/Thu, March 2, 2023
An Israeli-led crowdfunding campaign has raised hundreds of thousands of dollars for Palestinian residents of a West Bank town that was set ablaze by radical Jewish settlers, the organizer of the drive said Thursday. Some 12,000 Israelis donated nearly 1.7 million shekels (465,000 dollars) since the campaign was launched this week. The fundraising effort was a rare instance of cooperation between Israelis and Palestinians at a time when tensions have been surging between the sides over spiraling violence. Scores of Israeli settlers went on a violent rampage in the northern West Bank town of Hawara late on Sunday, setting dozens of cars and homes on fire after two settlers were killed by a Palestinian gunman there earlier in the day. One Palestinian was killed by Israeli fire during the incident, the Palestinian Health Ministry said. The rampage, the worst such violence in decades, prompted Israeli activist Yaya Fink, an observant Jew, to launch the fundraising initiative. “I had very bad feelings for when I saw hundreds of religious Jews tried to burn Hawara, including innocent people,” he said, adding that it delivered a message that “the majority of the Jews are against extremism, against racism.” He said most of the money was raised within the campaign's first 12 hours. Fink said the money will be sent as compensation to Palestinians whose property was damaged in the attack. He said he received threats from opponents to the campaign, who called him a traitor for raising money for the Palestinians, even as some are carrying out attacks. The rampage prompted international condemnation. But Israel’s government, which is made up of pro-settlement ultranationalists, expressed little outrage and only called on the perpetrators not to take the law into their own hands. However, some lawmakers went even further, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who said Hawara should be “erased” — but by state authorities and not by private citizens. He later backtracked on those remarks. Maj. Gen. Yehuda Fuchs, head of the military’s Central Command in charge of the West Bank, said this week the army was not prepared for the intensity of the Hawara violence, which he called “a pogrom done by outlaws.” He was using a term that usually refers to mob attacks against Jews in eastern Europe in the 19th and early 20th centuries. More than 60 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire this year, about half of them militants, according to a tally by The Associated Press. Palestinian attacks against Israelis have killed 14 Israelis during that same time. It has been one of the deadliest periods between Israelis and Palestinians in years.
*Scharf reported from Jerusalem.

What's driving the players behind Israel's legal overhaul?
Associated Press/Thursday, 2 March, 2023
In Israel's divisive debate over the government's planned legal overhaul, proponents claim that curtailing the power of judges and courts is good for the country. But, as their opponents often counter, other factors may be in play: Some of the leading politicians clamoring for these changes either face legal problems or believe the courts are obstructing their ideological agendas. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's allies say the overhaul will rein in an unelected judiciary. Critics warn that it will upend Israel's system of checks and balances, give too much power to the premier and push the country toward authoritarianism. Here is a look at the key players who are pushing ahead with the overhaul, despite mass protests and opposition from business leaders, security chiefs and legal officials, as well as concern from Israel's international allies.
NETANYAHU ON TRIAL
Netanyahu is on trial for corruption, charged with fraud, breach of trust and accepting bribes in a series of scandals involving media moguls and wealthy associates. While he was once seen as a defender of the courts, since being indicted, he has blasted the system for carrying out what he says is a witch hunt against him. His detractors say Netanyahu is seeking an escape route from his trial. One part of the overhaul would give the government control over the appointment of judges. If that passes, Netanyahu, through his government, could install sympathetic judges who could decide his fate. Netanyahu denies the overhaul is linked to his trial. Israel's attorney general has barred Netanyahu from dealing with the overhaul, citing potential conflict of interest. But that isn't expected to slow progress on it. Netanyahu's justice minister, Yariv Levin, is barreling forward. Levin has even said the charges against Netanyahu helped spark the need for the overhaul.
REPEAT OFFENDER
A Netanyahu ally in his coalition government is also burdened by criminal charges. Aryeh Deri was convicted and put on probation last year in a plea bargain for tax offenses. He also sat in prison for 22 months in the early 2000s for bribery, fraud and breach of trust for crimes committed while he was interior minister in the 1990s. Deri was at the fulcrum of the country's battle over the power of the courts earlier this year when Netanyahu was forced to fire him after the Supreme Court determined that it wasn't reasonable for the repeat offender to serve as a Cabinet minister. After the setback, the coalition doubled down on legislating Deri back into the government. In the meantime, he remains a force in parliament. "Deri is driven by his own interests and vendetta," said Yohanan Plesner of the Israel Democracy Institute think tank. "There is no way he can serve in the government unless the court's authorities are dramatically cut down or reduced."A Deri spokesman denied the allegation, saying the politician believes the overhaul is necessary to restore a balance between the executive and judicial branches.
ULTRA-ORTHODOX INTERESTS
Israel's ultra-Orthodox Jews, who have a strong voice in the current government, have long felt that the courts threaten their way of life. Their chief political objective is to continue exemptions for religious men from military conscription. Under a decades-old system, ultra-Orthodox men have been allowed to skip the country's compulsory military service to instead study Jewish religious texts. That has prompted resentment from secular Israelis who have challenged the system at the Supreme Court, which has demanded the government set up a more equitable framework. Successive governments have tried to meet the standards of the top court, which has struck down laws seen as favoring the ultra-Orthodox and has emerged as a threat to the community. The ultra-Orthodox consider religious study — and avoiding military service — key to protecting their insular communities. Experts see military service as a way to integrate the ultra-Orthodox into the workforce. Many men in the community, which makes up 13% of the country's population, do not work, putting a burden on the economy. Secular Israelis and groups that promote Jewish pluralism have voiced concern that once judicial oversight is scaled back, the ultra-Orthodox will use their political clout to make the country's character more religious. They point to attempts by ultra-Orthodox lawmakers to limit business and public works on the Jewish Sabbath as examples of what could lie ahead.
SLIGHTED BY THE DISENGAGEMENT
Pro-settler parties are an essential part of Netanyahu's government. Simcha Rothman, a West Bank settler, is spearheading the overhaul as head of a parliamentary committee. The courts have both sided with settlers and opposed them in past rulings, including about unauthorized outposts built on private Palestinian land. Many settlers nonetheless see the justice system as hostile to their desire to expand settlements and ultimately annex the West Bank. Much of the settlers' anger toward the court goes back to Israel's withdrawal of troops and settlers from the Gaza Strip in 2005, when the justices sided with the government. At the time, settlers and their supporters demonstrated in large numbers against the withdrawal, which they felt was unfairly imposed on them. The withdrawal frequently comes up in the current heated debate, with settler leaders claiming that large segments of Israeli society that support the current protests did not back them during what they say was a deeply troubling time. "Where were you during the disengagement," firebrand settler leader and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich reportedly asked bank chiefs earlier this year when they warned about the overhaul's adverse effects on the economy.
Commentator Raviv Drucker said this signals the settlers' real motivations. "The text was clear: The media and the judiciary rode roughshod over opponents of Israel's 2005 withdrawal from the Gaza Strip," he wrote in the Haaretz daily. "And here's the subtext: Now, we're taking revenge on you."Smotrich's hard-line views came up against the Israeli establishment during the disengagement. He was arrested in the lead-up to the event for reported involvement in a plot to damage infrastructure and block main highways. Smotrich's governing partner, Itamar Ben-Gvir, has a long list of grievances. He believes the courts have been unfair to religious Jews and settlers and sided too often with Palestinians. For years, Ben-Gvir, a far-right settler leader, was limited to the fringes of Israeli politics. He has been arrested dozens of times and was convicted of incitement and supporting a Jewish terror group. In Netanyahu's new government, he is the national security minister and now oversees the country's police force.

Sudani Announces Start of Preparations for 3rd Baghdad Conference
Baghdad - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 2 March, 2023
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia Al-Sudani informed UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres that his government was preparing for the third edition of the Baghdad Conference. Guterres arrived in Baghdad on Tuesday evening, on his first visit to the country in six years. Following a joint press conference with Foreign Minister Fouad Hussein, he separately met with Sudani, Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid and Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Al-Halbousi. He is expected to visit Erbil on Thursday to meet with Kurdish leaders. According to a statement issued by the Office of the Prime Minister, Sudani and Guterres discussed bilateral relations, prospects for cooperation in the files of the displaced and the required international role, and the means to confront climate challenges. The two officials also reviewed Iraq’s efforts to consolidate human rights and promote sustainable development, and its pioneering role in reducing tensions in the region and ensuring stability. Sudani took the opportunity to thank the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) for its efforts to help Iraq in various stages. For his part, Guterres emphasized the support of the international community for Iraq in the file of climate challenges and the displaced. He also expressed the UN readiness to “support the government of Iraq in the face of the challenges,” expressing optimism about “the efforts made by the Iraqi government in all fields,” according to the statement issued by Sudani’s office. Meanwhile, the Iraqi president stressed that his country was willing to support the UN organization to return the displaced to their areas of residence and to rebuild the city of Sinjar. He pointed out that Iraq sought to “obtain a fair share of water as a result of its great vulnerability to climate change,” a statement by the presidential office read. Guterres, for his part, noted that conditions in Iraq “have changed for the better.”The statement added that the two officials discussed ongoing efforts to consolidate security and stability in the country, the work mechanisms of the United Nations Mission in Iraq, as well as the role of friendly organizations and countries in supporting the displaced. The office of the Speaker of Parliament said that Al-Halbousi called for addressing the file of the displaced in Iraq who live in difficult conditions, emphasizing the need for more cooperation with the United Nations to facilitate their return to their areas of residence.

Blinken and Lavrov meet for first time since Ukraine war
Barbara Plett Usher in Delhi & Nadine Yousif in Toronto - BBC News/Thu, March 2, 2023
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has told his Russian counterpart the US will support Ukraine "for as long as it takes". Mr Blinken met briefly with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the sidelines of the G20 summit in India. It is the first time the two have spoken face to face since the start of the Ukraine war one year ago. A senior State Department official said the discussion in Delhi lasted less than 10 minutes. Mr Blinken also told Mr Lavrov that Russia should release Paul Whelan, an imprisoned American citizen, and that Russia should rejoin the New START nuclear arms control treaty that it recently withdrew from. A State Department official told reporters that Mr Blinken had "disabused" Mr Lavrov of any idea that US support for Ukraine is wavering. The official did not say how Mr Lavrov responded, but said that there was no indication that Russia will change course in the near term. Bitter divisions over Ukraine dominate G20 talks. The Russian foreign ministry said Mr Blinken had asked to speak to Mr Lavrov but did not comment on the conversation. The last time the two met was in Geneva in January 2022. Both Mr Lavrov and Mr Blinken commented on the war in Ukraine earlier during the Delhi summit.
At a news conference on Thursday, Mr Lavrov accused Western countries of trying to influence neutral states to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine. "The West continues its attempts to push everyone and everything," he said. Mr Blinken reportedly held talks with top diplomats during the Delhi summit to rally support for Ukraine. In a closed-door group meeting on Thursday morning, Mr Blinken reemphasised his condemnation of the war. "We must continue to call on Russia to end its war of aggression and withdraw from Ukraine for the sake of international peace and economic stability," he said, according to a text of his remarks released to reporters by the US State Department. "Unfortunately, this meeting has again been marred by Russia's unprovoked and unjustified war against Ukraine," he added. Mr Blinken repeated his condemnation to the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva later in the day, where he appeared via video conference. The G20, which includes the world's 19 wealthiest nations plus the European Union, accounts for 85% of global economic output and two-thirds of its population.

G20 talks end in India without consensus on Ukraine war
Associated Press/Thursday, 2 March, 2023
A meeting of top diplomats of the Group of 20 industrialized and developing nations ended Thursday in New Delhi without a consensus on the Ukraine war, India's foreign minister said.
Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said there were "divergences" on the issue of war in Ukraine "which we could not reconcile as various parties held differing views."
Last week, India was forced to issue a compromised chair's summary at the conclusion of the G-20 finance ministers meeting after Russia and China objected to a joint communique that retained language on the war in Ukraine drawn directly from last year's G-20 leaders summit declaration in Indonesia.
Host India had appealed for all members of the fractured Group of 20 to reach consensus on issues of deep concern to poorer countries even if the broader East-West split over Ukraine cannot be resolved.
And while others, including U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, chose to highlight their positive roles in addressing world crises, the divide was palpable.
In a video address to the assembled foreign ministers in New Delhi, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged them not to allow current tensions to destroy agreements that might be reached on food and energy security, climate change and debt.
"We are meeting at a time of deep global divisions," Modi told the group, which included Blinken, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and their Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, whose discussions would naturally be "affected by the geopolitical tensions of the day."
"We all have our positions and our perspectives on how these tensions should be resolved," he said, adding that: "We should not allow issues that we cannot resolve together to come in the way of those we can."
In a nod to fears that the increasingly bitter rift between the United States and its allies on one side and Russia and China on the other appears likely to widen further, Modi said that "multilateralism is in crisis today."
He lamented that the two main goals of the post-World War II international order — preventing conflict and fostering cooperation — were elusive. "The experience of the last two years, financial crisis, pandemic, terrorism and wars clearly shows that global governance has failed in both its mandates," he said.
Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar then addressed the group in person, telling them that they "must find common ground and provide direction."
Blinken, according to remarks released by the State Department, spent much of his time describing U.S. efforts to bolster energy and food security. But he also told the ministers pointedly that Russia's war with Ukraine could not go unchallenged.
"Unfortunately, this meeting has again been marred by Russia's unprovoked and unjustified war against Ukraine, deliberate campaign of destruction against civilian targets, and its attack on the core principles of the U.N. Charter," he said.
"We must continue to call on Russia to end its war of aggression and withdraw from Ukraine for the sake of international peace and economic stability," Blinken said. He noted that 141 countries had voted to condemn Russia at the United Nations on the one-year anniversary of the invasion.
However, several members of the G-20, including India, China and South Africa, chose to abstain in that vote.
While they were all in the same room, there was no sign that Blinken would sit down with either his Russian or Chinese counterparts. Ahead of the meeting, Blinken said he had no plans to meet with them individually but expected to see them in group settings.
In addition to attending the G-20 and seeing Modi and Jaishankar individually on Thursday, Blinken met separately with the foreign ministers of Brazil, Indonesia, Nigeria and South Africa, and was also scheduled to hold talks with the foreign ministers of the Netherlands and Mexico.
As at most international events since last year, the split over the war in Ukraine and its impact on global energy and food security will overshadow the proceedings. But as the conflict has dragged on over the past 12 months, the divide has grown and now threatens to become a principal irritant in U.S.-China ties that were already on the rocks for other reasons. A Chinese peace proposal for Ukraine that has drawn praise from Russia but dismissals from the West has done nothing to improve matters as U.S. officials have repeatedly accused China in recent days of considering the provision of weapons to Russia for use in the war. Blinken said Wednesday that the Chinese plan rang hollow given its focus on "sovereignty" compared to its own recent actions.
"China can't have it both ways," Blinken told reporters in Tashkent, Uzbekistan before traveling to New Delhi. "It can't be putting itself out as a force for peace in public, while in one way or another, it continues to fuel the flames of this fire that Vladimir Putin started."
He also said there is "zero evidence" that Putin is genuinely prepared for diplomacy to end the war. "To the contrary, the evidence is all in the other direction," he said. China on Thursday hit back at those comments, accusing the U.S. of promoting war by supplying Ukraine with weapons and violating Chinese sovereignty with support for Taiwan. "The U.S. says it wants peace, but it is waging wars around the world and inciting confrontation," Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning told reporters in Beijing.
"While emphasizing the need to respect and maintain the international order, the U.S. has vigorously pursued illegal unilateral sanctions, putting domestic law above international law," she said. "What the U.S. should do is to reflect on itself, stop confusing the public and making irresponsible remarks, earnestly shoulder its responsibilities, and do something to promote the de-escalation of the situation and peace talks." In the meantime, Moscow has been unrelenting in pushing its view that the West, led by the U.S., is trying to destroy Russia.
Ahead of the meeting, the Russian Foreign Ministry slammed U.S. policies, saying that Lavrov and his delegation would use the G-20 to "focus on the attempts by the West to take revenge for the inevitable disappearance of the levers of dominance from its hands."
The antagonism has left India in the unenviable position of trying to reconcile clearly irreconcilable differences.
The meeting is particularly crucial for India's hopes to use its chairmanship of the group to leverage its position on the global stage and adopt a neutral stance on Ukraine in order to focus on issues of importance to developing nations like rising inflation, debt stress, health, climate change and food and energy security. But just last week, India was forced to issue a chair's summary at the conclusion of the G-20 finance ministers' meeting after Russia and China objected to a joint communique that retained language on the war in Ukraine drawn directly from the declaration from last year's G-20 summit in Bali, Indonesia. India hopes to avert a repeat of that, but prospects appear dim. U.S. officials said discussions were ongoing about language that could be used in a final statement but could not predict if they would succeed.
So far, though, India has refrained from directly criticizing Russia, its major Cold War-era ally, while increasing imports of Russian oil, even as it has increasingly faced pressure to take a firm stand on Moscow.

China's Peace Plan for Ukraine Could Have Dangerous Consequences
Ian Bremmer/Time/Thu, March 2, 2023
With its 12-point plan to end the war in Ukraine, China has taken a significant step toward center stage in international politics. In the past, it has avoided the risks and responsibilities that come with a leadership role on foreign policy questions that aren’t directly relevant to China’s national security. Now that Xi Jinping has consolidated vast power at home, he’s ready to assert his country’s influence in new ways. Yet, direct intervention in Russia’s war on Ukraine is fraught with risk for China, its relations with America and Europe, and the entire global economy. What’s in China’s peace plan? Despite Western suspicions the proposal is designed mainly to help Russia, it calls for formal respect for Ukraine’s sovereignty, protections for Ukrainian civilians, an end to interference with the flow of humanitarian aid into the country, and condemnation of the possible use of nuclear weapons. The plan also reflects the views of those around the world whose primary interest in the war is economic, by calling for a ceasefire, an end to sanctions, and the opening of peace talks that might help ease pressure on food and fuel prices. Though Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky pledged to consider the plan, it has no chance of moving forward, because it does not require Russia’s invading army to leave Ukraine, does not promise a return of Ukrainian land now illegally occupied by Russian forces, and provides nothing tangible for reconstruction of the country. An immediate ceasefire would freeze Russian gains in place, forcing Ukraine to try to persuade Vladimir Putin to voluntarily give back land. In truth, no peace plan is likely to succeed at this stage of the war because neither the Russian nor Ukrainian governments can afford to lose. In addition, though Beijing has rejected the charge, Western governments continue to warn that China may still be thinking of providing weapons for Russia. Direct accusations from senior U.S. officials that China is considering the idea make clear that Washington is watching closely and that serious consequences will come if China presses ahead. For that reason, Beijing is unlikely to send Russia weapons or ammunition, but it surely hopes the threat alone will move NATO to push Ukraine to the negotiating table.
So, what else does China hope its plan can achieve? It can promote China as a global problem-solver and peacemaker with a blueprint most of the world can support. Though developing countries in Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East question Putin’s motives, they see themselves more directly damaged by Western determination to make this war the most urgent priority in a world suffering from global crises like slow economic recovery from the pandemic, food and fuel inflation, unsustainable developing world debt, refugees, and climate change.
China’s peace plan implicitly presents the U.S. as a warmonger and NATO as the tool it uses to make an awful war last longer and cost more. It also allows Xi to interact with Putin—and even to visit Moscow in coming months—as a mediator rather than as an ally of the man who ordered the invasion. China may also be hoping to drive political wedges within America and Europe by creating an “off-ramp” for those on both sides of the Atlantic who question the wisdom of open-ended support for Ukraine. Make no mistake; China is playing a dangerous game. Any provision of weapons to Russia would instantly make an already fractious U.S.-China relationship much worse. The aftershocks from that quake would be felt around the world. But even if China continues to limit its involvement to the role of Kremlin apologist and gadfly would-be peacemaker, the impact on tensions between America and China may help ensure the war in Ukraine continues to expand in ways no one can control.

Russian mercenary boss publishes video showing fighters inside Ukraine's Bakhmut
Reuters/Thu, March 2, 2023
The founder of Russia's Wagner mercenary force on Thursday published a video showing his fighters inside Bakhmut, the small Ukrainian city Wagner has been fighting to capture for months. Wagner has spearheaded Russia's assault on Bakhmut, which had a pre-war population of 75,000, and has made steady but incremental progress around the city's outskirts in recent months, endangering Ukraine's supply lines. In a post on Telegram, the press service of Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner's founder, cited him as saying: "The lads are mucking about, shooting home video. They brought this from Bakhmut this morning, practically the centre of the city."Reuters geolocated the footage to the east of Bakhmut, around 1.2 miles (around 2 kilometres) from the city centre. Reuters could not independently verify the date on which it was filmed. In the video, uniformed men are shown lifting a Wagner banner atop a semi-ruined multi-storey building. One of the men is shown dancing and holding a guitar, a reference to Wagner's informal nickname of "the musicians". Ukrainian forces were reported to be hanging on to their positions in Bakhmut early on Thursday, but to be under constant attack from Russian troops seeking to claim their first major victory for more than half a year.

Ukraine war: Over 100 Russian tanks destroyed in fighting in Vuhledar, says Kyiv
Matt Oliver/The Telegraph/Thu, March 2, 2023
As Olaf Scholz addressed world leaders and financiers on the ski slopes of Davos in January, the German Chancellor sought to portray his country as the emerging leader in Europe’s green transition. Looking at what his successors might tell the gathering in 2045, he predicted a utopia powered by green electricity, emissions-free vehicles and energy-efficient buildings. “What is more,” Scholz added, “they are the ones who will have driven this transition.”Behind this rosy picture, however, is a more complicated backdrop at home. Despite Scholz’s insistence that Germany is leading the way, the Chancellor is facing political embarrassment as ministers in his coalition threaten to frustrate Europe’s efforts to move away from petrol and diesel cars. Under plans going to a vote by European Union ministers on Tuesday, the bloc will effectively ban the sale of new internal combustion engine vehicles from 2035. The proposals were agreed in principle last year and are designed to cement the transition to electric cars. But with just days to go until the final decision, Scholz’s coalition partners in the Free Democratic Party (FDP) are mounting a rearguard action that risks morphing into a diplomatic fiasco. Finance minister Christian Lindner and transport minister Volker Wissing have called for combustion engine vehicles to be exempt from the ban if they can run on so-called e-fuels, synthetic concoctions which some automakers are touting as an alternative to battery-powered cars. Environmentalists say the intervention is a cynical attempt to woo FDP voters and extend the lifetime of a technology that has had its day. But Wissing is vowing to veto the vehicle emission laws unless the EU agrees – with his efforts expected to secure backing from Italy, Poland and eastern European countries which provide supplies to the German car industry as well.
The move puts the FDP at odds with its bigger partners in government, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the Greens, while leaving Germany looking like a recalcitrant outlier in thrall to its powerful automotive industry.
Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, says it also presents a major headache for the SDP’s Scholz – whose supporters include both green-minded liberals and blue-collar factory workers – because it could force the famously indecisive Chancellor to take a firm position on the matter himself. “From Scholz’s point of view, he is damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t,” Kirkegaard adds. “So it would be much better if he could say this was just something that had come from Brussels. “But you are getting to a point where he may have to take a public position now and say, ‘I'm the Chancellor, we're going to go in this direction not that one’ – and he will risk causing a cleavage in his party by doing that.”The last-minute push for an e-fuels exemption is being driven by several factors, experts say, including both the FDP’s electoral fortunes and intense lobbying by German carmakers.
With the FDP’s poll numbers in freefall, Lindner and Wissing’s campaign is seen by rivals as political posturing designed to fire up support among their core liberal voters. “The FDP is signalling to its core constituency of voters, who tend to drive large, traditional German cars, that they are opposed to this move and are trying to block it,” says Kirkegaard. “When it goes ahead anyway, they can say, ‘Well, we did our best.’”In this case, the party’s goals also align with parts of Germany’s auto industry, says Pepijn Bergsen, a research fellow in Chatham House’s Europe programme.
Car makers still wield significant power in Berlin, even after the “dieselgate” scandal, but having based their business models on the internal combustion engine for decades, they are now seen as laggards in the newer electric technologies. Underlining this embarrassing point, national champions such as Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler sold fewer electric cars than American rival Tesla last year, according to registration statistics.
At the same time, cheap Chinese models are beginning to enter the market and the industry is grappling with the end of cheap gas supplies from Russia. “The auto industry has been the foundation of the German economy, particularly for the growth of the last 20 years,” says Bergsen. “But now you have all these threats coming together at the same time. “So [Wissing’s veto threat] looks defensive as well.”Several car makers have invested in e-fuels, which are made using carbon dioxide, oxygen and hydrogen, as a way of prolonging the lifespan of combustion engine cars.
Industry figures say the synthetic mixture is technically carbon-neutral because CO2 emitted from the tailpipe is later mitigated when the pollutant is sucked from the atmosphere to make more fuel. In December, Porsche executives inaugurated a pilot factory in Chile by filling up a 911 sports car with the first litres of fuel produced there. The company is aiming for mass production by 2026 and says the synthetic mixture would likely cost around £1.65 a litre. Bosses argue that with vast numbers of combustion engines still likely to be in circulation for many decades, it makes sense to reduce their emissions.
However, experts have their doubts about whether e-fuels will ever be viable without subsidies. Green replacements for petrol and diesel are energy-intensive to make and it is not clear whether supplies of hydrogen, which is likely to be also needed by other areas of industry, will be plentiful enough, says Axel Friedrich, a former top official in the German Federal Environmental Agency who is now a consultant. “If you look at the amount of hydrogen for the next 10 years, it's clear there is not enough for all the sectors,” he says.
“If you have to prioritise, will you produce e-fuels? Of course not.”
However, he says that efforts to delay the end of the internal combustion engine are backed not only by automakers but, significantly, also by trade unions, who have just as much to lose. “The unions are alarmed because we face huge structural change,” he adds. “It’s not just that we will have fewer people working [on electric cars] but also different ones. “If you're 40, you can be reeducated. But if you're 55, or 60, the battle’s over. This is a big problem, because the unions will lose power.”Dorothee Saar, a policy expert at German environmental charity Deutsche Umwelthilfe, fears that a U-turn on the EU laws would be a diplomatic disaster for Germany. “Wissing is playing with the credibility of Germany in Europe,” she says. “We have agreed on this compromise and now at the last opportunity he says “I'm not going to sign up to that’. It’s unbelievable.” She claims that abandoning plans to phase out the internal combustion engine would also threaten Germany’s ability to meet its decarbonisation targets, as the government has not legislated on the issue domestically. “The only driver to bring more battery electric vehicles into the market is this regulation,” she says.
With his Green coalition partners pressing for Germany to stick to its commitments, Scholz may soon be forced to step in and use his power as Chancellor to settle the row. “This could be a significant political crisis for the coalition,” says Kirkegaard, who notes that Scholz campaigned as the climate-friendly candidate for Chancellor. “But green issues were at the centre of the election. I think it's going to be very difficult for Scholz to renege on it.”The Chancellor who once vowed to lead the climate revolution from the front may yet live to eat his words.

Russia may run of out money next year and needs foreign investors due to 'serious' pressure from sanctions, oligarch warns
Sam Tabahriti/Business Insider/Thu, March 2, 2023
Russia may run out of money in 2024 due to sanctions imposed by the West following Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, Oleg Deripaska warned Thursday. The aluminum oligarch told the Krasnoyarsk Economic Forum in Siberia that Russia "will need foreign investors" as its funds were running low and "there will be no money already next year," Bloomberg reported. Deripaska, who founded Rusal, one of the world's biggest aluminum producers, said the gloomy economic outlook was due to "serious" pressure from western sanctions, per the report. The US has imposed more than 2,700 sanctions against Russia, more than any other country, according to the Atlantic Council's database. He told the forum that Russia needed to ensure a safe business climate for foreign investors, Bloomberg reported. Despite Western sanctions imposed following its invasion of Ukraine just over a year ago, the billionaire said Russia could still sell goods and services to countries with a total GDP of $30 trillion, per the report. "We thought we were a European country. Now, for the next 25 years, we will think more about our Asian past."Deripaska was personally sanctioned by the United States in 2018 over his links with alleged Russian interference in the 2016 US presidential election. Britain and the European Union also sanctioned him last year shortly after the war began. His comments come as Moscow considers raising taxes or imposing levies on companies to help pay for the conflict. Forbes reported in November that the war had cost Russia $82 billion to date. Reuters estimated that Moscow would spend about $155 billion on defense and security in 2023. A few days after the invasion Deripaska used a Telegram post to call for peace talks "as fast as possible," Reuters reported, adding: "Peace is very important."

Russia journal: Moscow mulls possible use of nuclear arms to fend off US attack -RIA
(Reuters)/Wed, March 1, 2023
A Russian defence ministry journal says Moscow is developing a new type of military strategy using nuclear weapons to protect against possible U.S. aggression, RIA news agency reported on Thursday. The article is the latest in a series of combative remarks by Russian politicians and commentators after the invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 last year, suggesting Moscow would, if necessary, be prepared to deploy its vast nuclear arsenal. RIA said the article, published in the Voennaya Mysl (Military Thought) magazine, concluded Washington was worried it might be losing dominance over the world and had therefore "apparently" prepared plans to strike Russia to neutralise it. In response, Russian specialists were "actively developing a promising form of the strategic use of the Russian armed forces - an operation of strategic deterrence forces", RIA said. This, it continued, "presupposes the use of modern strategic offensive and defensive, nuclear and non-nuclear weapons, taking into account the latest military technologies". Moscow, the article said, needed to be able to show the United States that it could not cripple Russia's nuclear missile system and would not be able to fend off a retaliatory strike. Russia's defence ministry did not immediately respond to a query asking for confirmation of the RIA story. Russian President Vladimir Putin last week suspended a landmark nuclear arms control treaty, announced new strategic systems had been put on combat duty, and threatened to resume nuclear tests.
Although Moscow says it would only use nuclear weapons in case Russia's territorial integrity were threatened, Putin allies have regularly suggested calamity could be close. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev this week said the West's continued supply of weaponry to Kyiv risked a global catastrophe, repeating a threat of nuclear war over Ukraine.

Strike the heart of Russia and watch its resolve crumble
Con Coughlin/The TelegraphThu, March 2, 2023
From the moment Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, launched his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, there has been a distinct feeling of unease among some Western leaders at the prospect of Ukrainian forces attacking targets on Russian soil. While the Russians have shown no qualms about targeting Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure, the Ukrainians have been actively discouraged from responding in kind for fear of provoking a wider escalation in the conflict. This twisted logic has meant that, even though Russia has maintained its relentless assault on the Ukrainian people, Western allies have been reluctant to provide weaponry that would enable Ukraine to take the fight to Russia. The provision of long-range Western missile systems is a case in point. After some hesitancy, the US, Britain and other allies eventually agreed to give Kyiv missiles, such as the American HIMARS, but on condition that they were only used to target Russian military operations in Ukraine. The imposition of such restrictions on these and other weapons has placed the Ukrainians at a distinct disadvantage compared with their Russian foes. No one is advocating that the Ukrainians resort to committing war crimes, as the Russians have done repeatedly during the past year, by targeting Russian civilians. But a number of recent incidents suggest that Ukrainian commanders are no longer prepared to tolerate the constraints placed on them by their Western allies, and are seeking to take the fight well beyond their borders. At the weekend, Moscow suffered the humiliation of having a £274 million spy plane blown up in Belarus, supposedly by pro-Ukrainian Belarusian partisans. Then there was this week’s reported Ukrainian drone attack against a gas facility on the outskirts of Moscow, hundreds of miles behind Russian lines. Such acts of sabotage are modest compared with the constant bombardment the Russian’s have carried out against Ukraine’s infrastructure. But with the war at a critical juncture, Ukraine is clearly seeking to extend its operations, a development its Western allies should encourage, not hinder. For all Putin’s attempts to portray the conflict as a great national struggle, the reality is that the war continues to go very badly for the Russian leader. With the number of Russian deaths and casualties said to have reached the 200,000 mark, it is estimated that Moscow has suffered more combat fatalities than it experienced in all the wars it has fought since the Second World War.
That figure, moreover, is likely to rise significantly if Putin continues to sacrifice the lives of tens of thousands of raw conscripts by resorting to tactics last seen on the blood-soaked battlefields of the First World War. In recent weeks, as Russian forces have launched a counter-offensive to capture key cities in eastern Ukraine such as Bakhmut, they are believed to have lost a staggering 40,000 soldiers.
This time last year, a combination of poorly trained and ill-equipped Russian forces, combined with the inhospitable Ukrainian terrain, meant that the much-vaunted military offensive suffered an ignominious defeat. And there is every likelihood the Russians will suffer a similar fate this year as, despite the constant changes in military command and the recruitment of hundreds of thousands of conscripts, they seem determined to repeat the mistakes of the past. Yet, with the state-controlled Russian media making no mention of the true scale of the losses, the Russian public are unaware of the true extent of the disaster that is befalling their country. Instead they are treated to the grotesque spectacle of pro-Putin supporters seeking to romanticise Russia’s role in invading Ukraine, as was evident from the carefully choreographed rally held at Moscow’s Luzhniki Stadium to mark the first anniversary of the war. Another concern must be the increasingly erratic behaviour of Putin himself who, when not travelling around the country in a special armoured train on secret railway tracks, reportedly spends his time at his palatial mansion on the outskirts of Moscow, cavorting with his long-term lover, a former Olympic rhythmic gymnastics champion.
If the Russian people truly understood the scale of the calamity facing their country, it is unlikely that they would tolerate the antics of their president, nor the incompetence of his military commanders.
By taking the war deep within Russia’s borders, the Ukrainians are demonstrating to the Russian people in graphic terms that Putin’s so-called “special military operation” is not going as well as he would like them to believe. Such a strategy is not without risk. Russian efforts to demoralise the Ukrainian people by constantly attacking the country’s infrastructure have ultimately proved counterproductive, as they have only served to strengthen the Ukrainians’ resolve. But if Ukraine is ultimately to prevail in the conflict, the Russian people need to understand that, despite Putin’s claims to the contrary, they are fighting a war they have no chance of winning.

British navy seizes Iran missiles, parts likely Yemen bound
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP)/Thu, March 2, 2023
The British navy seized anti-tank missiles and fins for ballistic missile assemblies during a raid on a small boat heading from Iran likely to Yemen, authorities said Thursday, the latest such seizure in the Gulf of Oman. The seizure by the Royal Navy comes after other seizures by French and U.S. forces in the region as Western powers increase their pressure on Iran, as it now enriches uranium closer than ever to weapons-grade levels. It also comes as regional and international powers try to find an end to the yearslong war gripping Yemen, the Arab world's poorest country, and as Iran arms Russia in its war on Ukraine. The raid took place Feb. 23 after an American aircraft detected a small motorboat with cargo covered by a gray tarp heading from Iran, with a helicopter from the Royal Navy frigate HMS Lancaster chasing the vessel as it ignored being hailed by radio, the British Defense Ministry said. The boat tried to reenter Iranian territorial water, but was stopped before it could. Inside the boat, British troops found Russian 9M133 Kornet anti-tank guided missiles, known in Iran as “Dehlavieh,” the U.S. Navy's Mideast-based 5th Fleet and the British navy said. Those weapons have been seen in other seizures suspected to be from Iran and bound for Yemen. Also on board were small fins that the U.S. Navy identified as jet vanes for medium-range ballistic missiles. Also on board were devices the Navy identified as “impact sensor covers” that go on the tips of those missiles. While the British did not identify where it suspected the weapons would go, the U.S. Navy described the seziure as happening “along a route historically used to traffic weapons unlawfully to Yemen.” Iranian components have helped build a missile arsenal for Yemen's Houthi rebels, who have held the country's capital, Sanaa, since 2014. A United Nations resolution bans arms transfers to Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. Tehran long has denied arming the rebels, despite physical evidence, numerous seizures and experts tying the weapons back to Iran. “This seizure by HMS Lancaster and the permanent presence of the Royal Navy in the Gulf region supports our commitment to uphold international law and tackle activity that threatens peace and security around the world," British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said.
Vice Adm. Brad Cooper, the commander of the American 5th Fleet, said in a statement that this was the “seventh illegal weapon or drug interdiction in the last three months and yet another example of Iran’s increasing malign maritime activity across the region.” In that time, the Navy said, its sailors and allies have seized more than 5,000 weapons, 1.6 million rounds of ammunition, 30 anti-tank missiles and other weapon components. Iranian state media did not immediately acknowledge the seizure. Iran's mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The war in Yemen has deteriorated largely into a stalemate and spawned one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. However, Saudi-led airstrikes haven’t been recorded in Yemen since the kingdom began a cease-fire at the end of March 2022, according to the Yemen Data Project. That cease-fire expired in October despite diplomatic efforts to renew it. That has led to fears the war could again escalate. More than 150,000 people have been killed in Yemen during the fighting, including over 14,500 civilians.

SpaceX launches UAE, US, Russian astronauts on voyage to space station
AP/March 02, 2023
CAPE CANAVERAL: SpaceX launched four astronauts to the International Space Station for NASA on Thursday, including the first person from the Arab world going up for an extended monthslong stay. The Falcon rocket bolted from Kennedy Space Center shortly after midnight, illuminating the night sky as it headed up the East Coast..Nearly 80 spectators from the United Arab Emirates watched from the launch site as astronaut Sultan Al-Neyadi — only the second Emirati to fly to space — blasted off on his six-month mission. Half a world away in Dubai and elsewhere across the UAE, schools and offices planned to broadcast the launch live. Also riding the Dragon capsule that’s due at the space station on Friday: NASA’s Stephen Bowen, a retired Navy submariner who logged three space shuttle flights, and Warren “Woody” Hoburg, a former research scientist at Massachusetts Institute of Technology and space newbie, and Andrei Fedyaev, a space rookie who’s retired from the Russian Air Force. The first attempt to launch them was called off Monday at the last minute because of a clogged filter in the engine ignition system. They will replace a US-Russian-Japanese crew that has been up there since October. The other station residents are two Russians and an American whose six-month stay was doubled, until September, after their Soyuz capsule sprang a leak. A replacement Soyuz arrived last weekend. Al-Neyadi, a communications engineer, served as backup for the first Emirati astronaut, Hazzaa Al-Mansoori, who rode a Russian rocket to the space station in 2019 for a weeklong visit. The oil-rich federation paid for Al-Neyadi’s seat on the SpaceX flight. The UAE’s minister for public education and advanced technology, Sarah Al-Amiri, said the long mission “provides us a new venue for science and scientific discovery for the country.”
“We don’t want to just go to space and then not have much to do there or not have impact,” said the director general of the UAE’s space center in Dubai, Salem Al-Marri. The Emirates already have a spacecraft orbiting Mars, and a mini rover is hitching a ride to the moon on a Japanese lander. Two new UAE astronauts are training with NASA’s latest astronaut picks in Houston. Saudi Prince Sultan bin Salman was the first Arab in space, launching aboard shuttle Discovery in 1985. He was followed two years later by Syrian astronaut Muhammed Faris, launched by Russia. Both were in space for about a week.
Al-Neyadi will be joined this spring by two Saudi astronauts going to the space station on a short private SpaceX flight paid by their government. “It’s going to be really exciting, really interesting” to have three Arabs in space at once, he said last week. “Our region is also thirsty to learn more.”He’s taking up lots of dates to share with his crewmates, especially during Ramadan, the Muslim holy month which begins this month. As for observing Ramadan in orbit, he said fasting isn’t compulsory since it could make him weak and jeopardize his mission. Bowen, the crew’s leader, said the four have jelled well as a team despite differences between their countries. Even with the tension over the war in Ukraine, the US and Russia have continued to work together on the space station and trade seats on rides there. “It’s just tremendous to have the opportunity to fly with these guys,” Bowen said.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 02-03/2023
Turkey: Islamist Sex with Children Is Fine; Condemning It Is an Offense
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute./March 2, 2023
As the Turkish government's topmost religious authority under Erdoğan, Diyanet is giving permission for an illegal act under the pretext of Islamic law: no obstacle for adoptive parents to marry, and consummate the marriage with, the adopted children who survived the earthquake.
The fatwa runs up against the Turkish Civil Code, according to the Istanbul Bar Association's Center for Children's Rights. Article 129 of the Civil Code bans marriage between an adopter and an adoptee, and Article 500 grants adoptees the right of succession, the Center said, noting that Diyanet's statements should not be against the Constitution or the laws.
Then a worse blow hit: Diyanet has filed a criminal complaint against prominent columnist Fatih Altaylıı on the grounds that he shared "grave insults against the institution and its personnel" on social media. If Altaylı is to be blamed for his tweet, his only wrong should be that he did not insult a pedophilic religious institution enough.
Erdoğan's focus is not on the relief effort or on the national agony. Turkey's broadcasting watchdog, RTUK, suspended the television stations Halk TV, KRT and Tele1, for three days and fined another, Fox TV, on grounds that "their coverage of the earthquake was unjustly critical of the government."
A general election is scheduled for this spring. The Turkish people and NATO deserve better.
Diyanet, Turkey's Directorate of Religious Affairs, shocked the nation when it issued an Islamic fatwa (religious opinion) giving permission for an illegal act under the pretext of Islamic law, saying that people who adopt children orphaned by the recent earthquake may marry, and consummate the marriage with, their adoptive children. (Image source: iStock)
This unpleasant story persists. Islamists, citing the hadith - a dubious source of Prophet Mohammed's sayings written 200 years after his death and on which Islamist scholars have never agreed for 14 centuries -- defend their lust for underage girls. [Here is a long list of Turkish Islamist practices of pedophilia in the past years.]
Most recently, in November, Turkey was shocked at news that a prominent Islamic sheik, the leader of a religious order fiercely devoted to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, had married off his six-year-old daughter to a 29-year-old disciple. Six! The girl had been forced into sex and became a mother at 14. She complained to the prosecutor's office, but Erdogan's authorities apparently did not want to bother the sheik.
As she became an adult, she collected evidence of abuse, made it public, and only then the judiciary took action. Initially the court decided to try the suspects without detention, but under huge public pressure, the court detained both the father and husband. The father, in a statement, said that he was answerable only to Allah, not to a court.
At the first court hearing in January, loyalists of the Hiranur sect gathered in front of the court building "to protest the legal proceedings against their sheik." In defense of the girl's father, they shouted, "Allahu akbar [Allah is the greatest]." At the same hearing, the court ordered a "secrecy and media ban" on future proceedings. The trial was adjourned to February 27.
Diyanet, Turkey's Directorate of Religious Affairs, an office under Erdoğan's authority, shocked the nation once again when it issued an Islamic fatwa (religious opinion) shortly after the worst disaster in modern Turkey's history: a 7.8-magnitude earthquake that hit Turkey's southeast, as well as Syria, and that killed nearly 50,000 people and injured more than 100,000.
The earthquake zone of 10 provinces accounts for a sixth of Turkey's population of 85 million.
More than 75 countries sent teams and aid for the rescue effort; the Israeli team was the second-largest. U.S. and Greek foreign ministers, in a show of solidarity, visited the area. Thousands of babies and children pulled out of the rubble now have no families. More than 300,000 Turkish families have applied to adopt parent-less children.
In a tragedy of that scale, what could be the primary concern of the suffering country's top religious authority? Helping the relief work? Not for Diyanet.
"[F]rom the Islamic viewpoint, there is no barrier to marriage between the adopter and the adopted child." Diyanet's fatwa said. What?! This looks surreal, horrific. Not, it seems, in the view of Turkish Islamists. Diyanet continued:
"Although Islam recommends 'the care and protection of orphaned children,' it does not recognize the institution of adoption, which has certain legal consequences. Accordingly, the relationship between the adopter and the adopted child does not create a barrier to marriage, nor is it permissible for the adopted child to be registered in the genealogy of the adopters instead of their biological parents."
Secular Turks were once again outraged. In his Twitter account, prominent columnist Fatih Altaylı wrote:
"We understand that you are really perverts, but what are you doing in an institution like the Diyanet? Perverts. Go into the porn industry."
There is a legal problem, as well. The fatwa runs up against the Turkish Civil Code, according to the Istanbul Bar Association's Center for Children's Rights. Article 129 of the Civil Code bans marriage between an adopter and an adoptee, and Article 500 grants adoptees the right of succession, the Center said, noting that Diyanet's statements should not be against the Constitution or the laws. As the Turkish government's topmost religious authority under Erdoğan, Diyanet is giving permission for an illegal act under the pretext of Islamic law: no obstacle for adoptive parents to marry, and consummate the marriage with, the adopted children who survived the earthquake.
Then a worse blow hit: Diyanet has filed a criminal complaint against Fatih Altaylı on the grounds that he shared "grave insults against the institution and its personnel" on social media. If Altaylı is to be blamed for his tweet, his only wrong should be that he did not insult a pedophilic religious institution enough.
Not only that. Erdoğan's focus is not on the relief effort or on the national agony. Turkey's broadcasting watchdog, RTUK, suspended the television stations Halk TV, KRT and Tele1, for three days and fined another, Fox TV, on grounds that "their coverage of the earthquake was unjustly critical of the government."
A general election is scheduled for this spring. The Turkish people and NATO deserve better.
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

The New Path of Israeli-Palestinian Relations
Saleh Al-Qallab/Asharq Al Awsat/March 02/2023
Things have to get worse before they get better…This could well be true for the Arab-Israeli conflict at this critical historical juncture. Anyone who thinks that the great people of Palestine will not overcome the Israelis is deluded. Though the Israelis are putting all of their animosity and might on display through their far-right government, they know that they have to wake up to the fact that the movement of history is overwhelming. They are aware of the fact that they must stop behaving as they have been since they were forcibly implanted in the Palestinians’ homeland during a sick period in history when the colonialists pulled the strings. It seems that the Israelis, or at least a substantial segment of the population, are extremists, settlers, and ruthless hardliners. They have not realized that the facts on the ground are changing and that history cannot be resisted. The Aqaba Summit, which brought the Israelis and Palestinians together and was attended by American, Jordanian, and Egyptian officials, had only just ended when the occupied West Bank was alight.
The summit had been held to quell the inflamed tensions in the West Bank and prevent the government of Benjamin Netanyahu and his extremist religious allies from going through with their exclusionary settlement program. Nonetheless, we saw Palestinian towns and villages rampaged by vicious settlers, who launched an unhinged assault, burning homes and cars and attacking peaceful civilians.
We all know that the Israelis, whom the colonialists had implanted in the Palestinians’ homeland during a sick period in history, are aware that things have changed today and are not as they had been yesterday. They know that they must adjust to historical developments and that the world of today is different from the world yesterday, which Western colonialists had tailored to fit the ends of the Zionist movement.
This gravitation toward the hard right and the electoral progress of hardline religious parties, whose control over government has been increasing, is nothing but an attempt to resist history. It is the result of the Israeli masses and elites becoming aware that coexisting with the Palestinians is inevitable and that the world will not allow the conflict to continue. They know that the world will not stand by as the rights of the Palestinian people are encroached upon to increasing degrees on their own land, nor allow Israel to remain a rogue state above the law.
The Israelis are not expected to simply walk back on their previous aspirations, extending their hand to the Palestinians and offering them a historical settlement… This would be a historic step that would imply extremely significant developments for them.
Everyone knows, indeed everyone is certain in their knowledge, that Israeli society is visibly and deeply polarized. The streets of Tel Aviv and other cities are almost constantly brimming with tens of thousands of Israelis protesting against the radical right-wing government, which is dragging Israeli society to the pits of dictatorship. This sick government lives outside history and reality, and no analyst or observer believes that it can endure for much longer...
Indeed, Benjamin Netanyahu’s hardline government was formed through an alliance with religious parties from an era of history that is now in the distant past. The Israelis themselves, not just the entire world, have rebuffed it. The United States is interfering in minor and major matters in an attempt to contain this hardline government that wants to inflame the entire region.
Despite all the extremism we have seen from the Israeli government, we can be assured that an extremely consequential historic shift is underway. The Israeli Zionists are no longer behaving like they used to. They are aware of the historical developments they must adapt if they want to avoid meeting the same fate that had befallen all the invaders who came and went from this country, which will doubtlessly remain Arab till the end of time.
As Ahmad Shukeiri (may god have mercy upon his soul) used to reiterate, the idea of throwing the Israelis into the sea is not being proposed in any way, shape, or form. All calculations have changed, and this matter has precipitated developments that the Israeli leadership must take into account.
It is clear- certain, rather - that the most prominent members of the Israeli top brass are aware of these facts. They are also aware that their state has become wretched. It is begging for a settlement with the Palestinian people, who are seeking to end the conflict through peaceful means.
We should be aware that the situation has changed radically. There is now a real possibility for peaceful coexistence between the Palestinian people and the Israelis, who must abandon all of their previous aspirations.
The Israelis have no choice but to coexist with the Palestinians; decades of extremism, constant violence, and insistence on perpetuating the occupation have failed to erase the Palestinian people. It will not erase them, and it will not extinguish the flame of struggle that ignites the soul of the old and young members of this truly great nation.
Israel’s repression and violence will exacerbate; there is no escaping this eventuality in light of this extremist government. But this phase is the darkness that precedes the dawn… The dawn of the Palestinian people, their freedom, and independence.

Hunter Biden Has Some Explaining to Do
Ana Marie Cox/The New York Times/March 02/2023
Name a recurring Fox News segment, and there is a Republican congressional investigation for it: the origin of the coronavirus, the threat to our capital markets, supposed collaboration between social media companies and the Democratic Party. Some representatives have launched an investigation into whether the Department of Justice targeted parents who protested vaccine and mask mandates at school board meetings. No bit of pique is too tangential to escape their notice; Lauren Boebert recently demanded during one of these investigations that former Twitter representatives answer for her perceived shortage of likes: “Did either of you approve the shadow banning of my account @LaurenBoebert? Yes or no?”
Nothing feeds the perpetual outrage machine like a sprawling investigation into a vague but titillating scandal. And no pursuit is more vague and more titillating than the so-far-fruitless obsession with Hunter Biden.
For two years now, conservatives have accused President Biden’s wayward son of influence peddling, money laundering, bribery and illegal foreign lobbying — and they have sought to turn his misadventures into a tawdry, sprawling hydra powerful enough to entangle and distract the whole administration. With control over House investigations, they may finally get what they want: a chance to turn Hunter Biden’s life inside out.
It may counter every instinct a loving parent (or a political consultant) could ever have, but the president should want a version of that, too. During Hunter Biden’s active addiction, Joe Biden made it clear to his son and the world that his paternal love was not contingent on his son’s behavior. Now is the time to make it clear that his behavior does have consequences. Joe Biden should clearly call for his son to cooperate — not with the Republican circus on the Hill but with the Justice Department. That would let Hunter Biden stand on his own and allow the administration to focus on issues that matter most to the American people.
Up until this point, the Biden family has — publicly, at least — brushed off Republican threats: “Lots of luck!” Joe Biden told them last fall. Jill Biden simply asserts that “Hunter is innocent.”
But even the most optimistic Democrats know Hunter Biden has some explaining to do. The Justice Department has been investigating him since 2018. Last fall, The Washington Post quoted sources close to the inquiry saying the department had enough evidence to charge him with criminal violations regarding tax crimes and lying on a federal form.
Of course, cheating on your taxes and lying on a form are nothing compared with the operatic tale of corruption at the highest levels spun out by Tucker Carlson et al. But the president’s Hunter Biden problem goes beyond the strict letter of the law.
Last month, Hunter Biden introduced a daring tactic in his defense: His legal team requested that the Delaware attorney general, the Justice Department and the I.R.S. investigate the key figures responsible for perpetuating the laptop story and disseminating his personal information without his permission.
As wild as the accusations against him are, the one nugget of irreducible truth is Hunter Biden’s privilege. It has served him as a just-about-literal get-out-of-jail-free pass. The same is true for countless other politicians’ kids — certainly including Donald Trump’s. But pointing out the double standard won’t be enough to defang Republican criticism. And neither will just waiting for it all to blow over.
Democrats have tried ignoring Republican fishing expeditions before, hoping that the accusations would evaporate or that voters wouldn’t really care. Sometimes that works. (R.I.P., Operation Fast and Furious.) But with enough prolonged effort, they really can do damage.

Iran’s foreign policy duplicity harms it more than neighbors
Hassan Al-Mustafa/Arab News/March 02, 2023
The return of Ayatollah Khomeini from France to Iran in 1979 constituted a pivotal event for the Arab Gulf region, which changed many policies as a result. The revolution in Iran, which overthrew the rule of the late shah, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, brought a new model that differed from the nature of the rule of regimes in the Gulf. The Arab Gulf states are governed by families and sheikhdoms that depend on hereditary hierarchy, meaning that monarchy is the cornerstone of these states. The Pahlavi family in Iran shared the same system, although their experiences were different, depending on the various environments, cultures and political and security conditions.
The absence of the monarchical system and the advent of the Islamic Republic regime led to a change in the relationship between Iran and the Arab Gulf states. However, the Sultanate of Oman’s relationship with Iran was not greatly affected due to the existence of historical relations between Tehran and Muscat, and because Omani foreign policy, which, even if it is part of the Gulf Cooperation Council system, has its own style, which depends on dissociation and not entering into regional conflicts. Oman also strives to play a role that balances the various parties and seeks to build bridges between them and convey messages that ease tensions.
Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia sought to deal with the new situation realistically. King Khalid sent a special envoy to meet the leader of the Iranian revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini, and deliver a congratulatory message from the king. Moreover, Riyadh sent a shipment of fuel to Tehran, as Iran was suffering from a shortage. Even when war broke out between Iraq and Iran in September 1980, Saudi Arabia opposed the conflict. King Fahd, who was crown prince at the time, advised Iraqi President Saddam Hussein not to venture into the war and told him: The decision to start the war is in your hands, but the decision to finish it is not in your hands alone. However, Saddam, with his arrogant personality, did not listen to this advice and continued a war that greatly affected the region and caused political, security and even sectarian problems, the repercussions of which are still being felt.
Institutions such as the IRGC are highly influential in these policies and can disrupt diplomatic tools
When the Islamic Republic of Iran raised the slogan of exporting the revolution and its discourse began to be directed toward the Arab Gulf states, with some events giving indications of the existence of security and political dangers, Saudi Arabia was forced to confront these threats to preserve its national security. Therefore, when it supported Iraq in the war against Iran, it did not do so because it wanted to be a party to the conflict, as it was aware of the cost of that and knew that the war would deplete its budget. Rather, it wanted to protect its security and create a balance of power between Tehran and Baghdad that would lead, in the future, to an end to the war.
This is what happened later on, when Saudi Arabia sponsored secret negotiations that took place in the palace of Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz in the Swiss city of Geneva. Both Iraq and Iran participated and, in the presence of the Saudi ambassador to Washington at the time, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, both parties accepted the cessation of hostilities based on UN Security Council Resolution 598.
This historical background is important because it still influences Iranian foreign policy, 44 years after the so-called Islamic Revolution. Iranian foreign policy has oscillated for several years, especially during the presidencies of Mohammed Khatami and Hassan Rouhani, under the influence of several centers of power, the most important of which are: the Office of the Supreme Leader, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The audio leaks of former Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif in April 2021, in which he criticized the growing foreign policy role of the former commander of the Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, revealed the depth of the dispute between the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the IRGC. Zarif considered this role to be negative and that it harmed Iran’s external image, affecting its regional interests and relations with neighboring countries. This is in addition to the fact that the IRGC, with its interventions, impeded the reaching of positive results in the dialogue between Iran on the one hand and the US and the wider West on the other. “In the Islamic Republic, the military field rules,” Zarif said in the audiotape, quoted by The New York Times. “I have sacrificed diplomacy for the military field rather than the field servicing diplomacy.” This led to a wave of severe criticism by hard-liners against Zarif and subsequently he apologized to Soleimani’s family. At that time, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei intervened and declared: “Nowhere in the world is foreign policy determined by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Rather, it is determined by governmental bodies at a higher level than the Foreign Ministry — the Supreme National Security Council in our country — and implemented by the Foreign Ministry.”
This incident shows that the role of the Iranian Foreign Ministry is very limited compared to the policies drawn up by the Office of the Supreme Leader. It also shows that institutions such as the IRGC are highly influential in these policies and can disrupt diplomatic tools.
This situation continues today in Ebrahim Raisi’s government. Despite being conservative and obedient to the orders of Khamenei, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian finds himself limited in movement due to the more stringent policies of the rest of the regime’s institutions. Many even used to call him the “son of the IRGC.” Despite this, he has been unable to bridge the gap between the points of view of the IRGC and the Foreign Ministry.
Even in the Iranian nuclear file, there are differences between Amir-Abdollahian and chief negotiator Ali Bagheri, as the latter takes more ideological and hard-line positions, while Amir-Abdollahian seeks to be relatively realistic and flexible.
These conflicting and unstable foreign policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran cause added complications in the country’s relations with its regional neighbors, especially when, as the Foreign Ministry adopts positive statements about dialogue with Saudi Arabia, the IRGC generals launch direct threats against the Kingdom. This duplicity in the Iranian foreign policy discourse harms Iran more than it harms its neighbors. It puts Tehran in a position of mistrust, which prompts influential capitals to doubt the sincerity of its intentions. This is a problem that Iran must solve by itself before asking others to be more open to it.
*Hassan Al-Mustafa is a Saudi writer and researcher interested in Islamic movements, the development of religious discourse and the relationship between the Gulf Cooperation Council states and Iran. Twitter: @Halmustafa

Is it time for the US to open up its space market to allies?
Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/March 02, 2023
There is no doubt that the country leading the space race is the US. It has developed a winning formula that allows for private companies to find a path toward growth. This model has not been replicated anywhere else.
Let us start with the basics, which is the launching of rockets into space. We quickly notice that, with 76 launches in 2022, the US is leading the way. It is important to note that 60 of these were achieved by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, a private company. Second comes China and its government-owned China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, which achieved a similar total to SpaceX. The US’ contract-based system empowers a real commercial creation that goes beyond security. The market size and its rules are a clear advantage for US companies.
There is today a new vision for space that goes beyond launches and this offers opportunities on a global scale. As more assets are deployed into orbit, this becomes a full-on ecosystem and creates real business models and economic activities, starting with mobility. Moreover, with plans to establish a permanent presence on the moon, this also opens up further developments. All this is happening while we are reaching the end of an epoch of global collaboration and are noticing more domestic or regional initiatives. Despite the new commercial side of space, ultimately it mirrors what is happening geopolitically on Earth. Only allies can become business partners. And this is logical.
On that matter, there is something very revealing about the planned replacements for the International Space Station by each nation. The ISS will be decommissioned in 2031 and so each country is preparing an alternative. The Chinese government has developed its own successor, the Tiangong space station, which was launched in 2021 and which highlights the country’s policy of self-reliance. It is entirely built and run by the Chinese government.
The US has chosen a different approach, opening the way for private companies to bid for government tenders and creating a business model for other commercial activities. This approach makes private companies more resilient and encourages new commercial activities. It is also symbolic of the importance of entrepreneurship and private initiatives, which is what makes the US attractive.
Through these tenders and contracts, the US is smartly ensuring even bigger growth for American companies
The interesting point is that the US government and various institutions are probably the only ones in the world to give these large contracts. This is not the case in Europe or in China. The recent announcement by the US Space Force that between 60 and 70 missions are projected for the National Security Space Launch Phase 3 procurement will give even more growth and power to the US space market. Through these tenders and contracts, the US is smartly ensuring even bigger growth for American companies and the capacity to integrate vertically swiftly.
This is already happening as, if we look at the leader in the domain, SpaceX, we notice that it goes beyond mere launches. It is also about the internet and communications through its Starlink system. Moreover, its propulsion systems are impressive and more will come. Without government contracts, this would never have been possible. Obviously, it takes two to tango and, without Musk’s determination and his willingness to put his private capital at risk, this would not have happened.
I cannot help but ask if the US will open up more of its tenders to non-US companies that are part of its alliance? Will it be possible to see more access to the market and technology in order to support the growth of private companies in Europe or even the Gulf Cooperation Council? There are, understandably, export and participation restrictions due to the dual-use nature of many of the technologies and clear security and national defense priorities.
However, would it not make the alliance stronger if there were greater access to parts of this market for non-US companies? This could be in the form of collaborations and partnerships between space entrepreneurs. And for young space companies, it is easier to work with other companies in the US than to work directly with government entities. The US market provides an opportunity that is not available elsewhere. This capacity-building needs to be an important aspect of the transatlantic alliance.
The vision for Europe and the European Space Agency seems to be toward this structure, but it is not easy to move forward and change everything in a day. There has, nevertheless, been impressive changes, which are grounds for optimism. Here, there is also a great opportunity for collaboration between entrepreneurs to use the dual-use technology to develop new concepts and companies. The need for later-stage financing and broader markets is a key point for the future of this domain in Europe.
There is also positive news within the transatlantic partnership. Last year, NATO announced the launch of its Innovation Fund dedicated to the transatlantic alliance. The fund will invest €1 billion ($1.06 billion) in early-stage startups and other venture capital funds developing emerging dual-use technologies of priority to NATO. Having also created the Defense Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic, NATO will leverage the depth of expertise and breadth of access in the alliance to source future capabilities from dual-use innovators.
These are positive signs toward integration. Greater access to the US market would empower this strategy even more. It will not be easy to achieve, but who would have imagined an ecosystem in space just a few decades ago?
*Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of Barbicane, a space-focused investment syndication platform. He is the CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.

Yes, Jihad Really Means ‘Struggle,’ But That Only Makes It Worse
Raymond Ibrahim/March 02, 2023
Jihad does not mean what you think it means, silly infidels!
Welcome to one of the longest standing and arguably most effective apologias for Islam: the Arabic word jihad, we are repeatedly told, does not mean “holy war,” as earlier scholars (mostly Orientalists) often translated it. Rather, jihad simply means to “struggle” or “strive” for something, with no necessary connotation of violence.
The Columbian recently published a typical example. Titled, “Word ‘jihad’ often misused,” it claims that,
Contrary to its popular use in the media, jihad simply refers to a “struggle.” Muslims use the term foremost to discuss a spiritual struggle against one’s passions and vices.
As closely examined here, the latter claim—that “Muslims use the term [jihad] foremost to discuss a spiritual struggle against one’s passions and vices—is pure nonsense.
That said, the claim that jihad literally means “struggle” — not “holy war” — is absolutely correct. However, this only leads to a massive and rather overlooked irony: those who insist on translating jihad as “struggle,” do so thinking they are exonerating this notorious Arabic word from the divisiveness and violence surrounding it. In reality, it is only when one understands that jihad literally means struggle that one comes to understand just how dangerous, multifaceted, and subversive the jihad truly is.
Let us go to the beginning, etymology. Here is how the authoritative Hans-Wehr’s Dictionary of Modern Written Arabic translates the root j-h-d (from which the word jihad is derived): “to strive, endeavor, labor, take pains, and exhaust on behalf or for the sake of something [namely Islam].”
Published in 1961—that is, before the age of political correctness—the academically rigorous dictionary also makes it a point to place under the j-h-d entry the word jihad, which is translated as “fight, battle; jihad, holy war against the infidels, as a religious duty.”
There is a very good reason for this subcategorized entry. Historically, jihad always manifested itself as a “holy war against infidels.” It revolved around expanding (occasionally, as during the Crusades, defending) the borders of Islam.
Century after century, the only way for Muslim empires to expand into non-Muslim territory was through offensive warfare. Because pre-modern Europeans were still zealous over their faith and culture, and thus not about to submit to Islam without a struggle, force—Islamic invasion and conquest—was the only way to effectively practice jihad.
Times have changed. With the modern, meteoric rise of the West, a lax if not gullible attitude has come to prevail, allowing some Muslims to exercise the root meaning of jihad. If they can no longer subjugate the infidel through conventional war, they can at least, to quote from the aforementioned definition, “strive, endeavor, labor, take pains, and exhaust on behalf or for the sake of something”—namely, empowering Islam over the West.
This striving (jihad) takes many forms. One of the most obvious is known in Arabic as jihad al-lissan—jihad of the tongue—or in English, propaganda. This jihad takes the form of apologetics for Islam and polemics against the West—many of which consist of out-and-out lies. It emanates from Muslim academics, activists, journalists, politicians, and others.
Even the Islamic State, which embodies the concept of jihad as “holy war” more than any other organization today, regularly reminds its followers not to neglect the jihad of the tongue. According to a 2022 report,
The Islamist terrorist group Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP) has urged its supporters and recruits to emphasize media warfare in addition to military combat. “Fighting with the tongue is as important as fighting physically,” ISKP stated in a new issue of their magazine.
Another form of striving, recommended both in the Koran and Hadith, is known as jihad al-mal—the “money jihad.” Instead of physically participating in jihad, a Muslim supports it financially or materially.
This used to be the caliphate’s responsibility. Nowadays and in its absence, every day Muslims—including those living in the West—finance the jihad with their zakat, or “alms.” For example, in 2001, the U.S. government designated the Holy Land Foundation—once the largest Islamic charity group in the United States—as a terrorist organization dedicated to financing Hamas’s jihad/terrorism against Israel.
Yet another is the demographic jihad—also known as the “baby-jihad” (jihad al-wilada). Muslim men “strive” to breed with as many women as possible—Muslim or non-Muslim—in order to increase the ranks of Islam vis-à-vis increasingly sterile infidels. This is not just a lusty rationalization for illicit sex; Islamic clerics laud this “endeavor” as a legitimate jihad. Its success can be seen in Western Europe, some regions of which now have more newborn babies named Muhammad than traditional, European names.
In short, yes, the word “jihad” does not simply mean “holy war” to empower Islam over infidels. It means any “endeavor,” any kind of “striving” or “labor”—in a word, any struggle—that empowers Islam over infidels. Citing this fact, as the apologists often do, should not create less but more apprehension concerning the jihad.

Is Iran ready to build a nuclear bomb or not?
Simon Henderson/The Hill/March 02/2023
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3878385-is-iran-ready-to-build-a-nuclear-bomb-or-not/
Iran’s capacity to enrich uranium sometimes seems to be closely correlated with Washington’s ability to confuse the debate. Ten days ago it emerged that Tehran’s centrifuges were enriching to a level as high as 84 percent, very close to the 90 percent level generally accepted as needed for an atomic bomb.
But last Sunday, CIA Director William Burns told CBS News’ “Face the Nation” that while Iran may be only “a matter of weeks” from acquiring such high enriched uranium, “we don’t believe that the Supreme Leader in Iran (Ali Khamenei) has yet made a decision to resume the weaponization program that we judge they suspended or stopped at the end of 2003.”
Then yesterday, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl told a congressional committee that Iran could make enough fissile material (highly-enriched uranium) for one nuclear bomb in “about 12 days.” It was the first time the Biden administration had offered such precise candor.
So, are we being told to “sit down, calm down and get a grip” or not? In what seems like a fast-paced Broadway thriller (or perhaps farce), yesterday the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna shared its latest report on Iran with the countries on its governing body, as well as allowing selected journalists to read the report and take notes, but not take away.
The resulting headlines blazed that the 84 percent figure was essentially correct — although, to be precise, it was actually 83.7 percent. It had been discovered after an inspection of centrifuges at Iran’s Fordow plant, built deep inside a mountain, revealed a change in pipe work. In the days when Iran was more cooperative with the IAEA, monitoring equipment would have picked up the increased enrichment level. This time, inspectors had to take wiped samples and bring them back to Vienna for analysis, a much slower process.
The tempo of headlines, confusing or otherwise, will only increase in the next few days. On March 6, the IAEA’s report will be discussed at a board of governors meeting in Vienna. Between now and then, it seems that the agency’s director-general, Rafael Grossi, is likely to make a trip to Tehran. There is also the prospect of a second report emerging, examining the progress of a separate investigation into three sites in Iran where inspectors found traces of uranium in a man-processed state for which Iran had no convincing explanation.
CIA chief Burns acknowledged to CBS that despite no evidence of weaponization, the increased levels and volumes of enriched material are concerning, as is progress on Iran’s missile program, the presumed method of delivery.
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For his part, Kahl acknowledged that the volumes far exceeded those allowed under the dormant Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), from which President Trump withdrew in 2018. Kahl told the congressional committee that resolving the issue diplomatically is “better than the other options.” It was far from clear whether a military option could be decisive. An immediate challenge to diplomacy is Iran’s consistent denial that it has any intention of making an atomic bomb. Perhaps we are facing the prospect of a repeat of India’s 1974 advance, when it called the blast in a remote desert area a peaceful nuclear explosion. It would be clarity that Washington wants to avoid. But how?
**Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Follow him on Twitter @shendersongulf.

Turkey’s Disaster—and Erdogan’s ....How the Earthquake Could Spell the End of His Rule
Soner Cagaptay/Foreign Affairs/March 02/2023
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/turkey/turkeys-disaster-and-erdogans
The earthquakes that struck ten southern Turkish provinces on February 6 mark the country’s worst humanitarian disaster in modern history. Bustling cities were leveled, ancient citadels crumbled, and thousands of residential and commercial buildings collapsed. In addition to numerous casualties in neighboring Syria, more than 44,000 people have died in Turkey as of February 24. More than 100,000 people have been injured and millions more are currently homeless. One-sixth of Turkey’s population—more than 13 million people—is thought to have been affected by the earthquakes.
Providing relief to the stricken areas is the Turkish government’s most immediate concern. The disaster, however, poses not just a logistical challenge but also a political one. Already, the government’s relief efforts have come under scrutiny, as have the neglect and corruption that allowed many substandard buildings to be constructed in recent decades. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president since 2003, now faces the most important test of his career.
It is one he might find ominously familiar. In 1999, an earthquake killed nearly 19,000 people and exposed the limitations of the social contract between Turkey’s citizens and their paternalistic state. That natural disaster, coupled with an ensuing economic crisis, stoked deep dissatisfaction and spurred the toppling of the secular and often illiberal regimes that had prevailed since the country emerged from the wreck of the Ottoman Empire, in 1922. Out of the rubble, Erdogan and his Islamist political party would eventually sweep to power and transform Turkey. The tables have now turned on Erdogan. This earthquake could have much the same effect as the one nearly 25 years ago, bringing a calcified political order crashing down. The 1999 earthquake helped bring Erdogan to power. The 2023 quake may end his rule.
Turkey has a long tradition of paternalistic, top-down governance, rooted in a state-led modernization drive under the Ottoman Empire in the nineteenth century. The state in Turkey is nicknamed devlet baba (father state), as opposed to the country, which is known as ana vatan (motherland). In this political tradition, the state is like a disciplinarian father who takes care of his offspring, the citizens; it is stern and hardhearted, but also guides its citizens and provides for their needs.
Turkish leaders have long insisted that they know what is good for the people: first, the late Ottoman sultans; then, modern Turkey’s twentieth-century founder, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, and his successors, known as the Kemalists; and now, Erdogan. These leaders have made clear that their careful stewardship of the country requires the obedience of the people.
The 1999 earthquake helped bring Erdogan to power. The 2023 quake may end his rule.
After liberating Turkey from Allied occupation at the end of World War I, Ataturk propagated this paternalistic social contract. He went to great lengths to shape both state and society in his own secularist, nationalist image. Ataturk embodied the modern Turkish republic. Poignantly, in 1934, the country’s parliament—at the time, a rump body under his thumb—passed a law endowing him with the exclusive last name Ataturk, meaning “father of the Turks.” To this day, no Turkish citizen is allowed to bear the last name of the country’s founding father.
Ataturk’s paternal contract with the citizens remained effective well after his death, in 1938, and after Turkey became a multiparty democracy, in 1950. Kemalist parties on both the left and right perpetuated that form of rule. For decades during and after the Cold War, Turkey’s secularist devlet baba was seen as omnipotent, powerful, and almighty. Citizens had no option but to fear it.
It took a natural disaster to shake the Kemalist state to its core. The devastating earthquake of 1999 destroyed industrial areas along the outskirts of Istanbul. What ensued proved to be a game-changer for Turkey’s citizens: in their time of need, the father state was nowhere to be found as thousands lay injured under the rubble, waiting for help from relief agencies that never arrived. It took days, and in some cases weeks, for government relief to reach some communities. That failure left the pretense of a severe but effective Kemalist state in tatters.
A massive economic crisis the following year put the final nail in the coffin of the Kemalist devlet baba. Turkish citizens not only felt abandoned by the state but also no longer feared it. The door was now open for Erdogan.
THE CAPTAIN AT THE HELM
The 1999 earthquake and the subsequent economic crisis ripped up the social contract between the state and its citizens, prying loose the former’s ideological grip on society. In 2001, aided by his popularity after a successful stint as mayor of Istanbul in the mid-1990s, Erdogan set up his Justice and Development Party (AKP). In November 2002, his party won national elections, and Erdogan became Turkey’s prime minister in March 2003.
In part by delivering growth and lifting citizens out of poverty, and in part by cracking down on opponents, Erdogan has since cemented his reputation as an autocratic and powerful leader whom citizens ought to simultaneously fear and respect. In other words, he has come to embody a new version of the devlet baba. Erdogan’s image is both sweet and sour: he casts himself as a dominant yet hard-working patriarchal figure who, like Ataturk, wants citizens to follow his lifestyle choices. Unlike his Kemalist predecessors, of course, he is deeply conservative and recognizes no firewall between rigid Islamic piety and politics.
His base has loved him and his opponents have feared him. To earn that love and fear, he has lifted many Turks out of poverty, while squashing dissent by sending his opponents to prison. Erdogan is nicknamed reis (captain), a term referring to his family’s maritime origins on the Black Sea coast. The title also underscores his undisputed position as the man at Turkey’s helm. Passengers must listen to the captain, since their welfare depends on him.
CHOPPY WATERS
Erdogan’s political persona, however, may not be able to stand up to the coming maelstrom. The earthquake this month is a disaster of historic proportions. It killed more people than did the Turkish War of Independence a century ago.
Perhaps any government would have struggled to address such a disaster swiftly and comprehensively. But by any standard, the Erdogan government’s initial response was slow and haphazard. The president will come under scrutiny for gutting and manipulating the country’s key institutions, including its relief agencies, over the past decade, replacing their executives with loyalists and in the process rendering the agencies dysfunctional. Erdogan downgraded the Turkish Red Crescent Society, also known as Kizilay, a relief organization linked to the International Red Cross Society, because it would not bow to his power. Instead, he set up the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD), Turkey’s equivalent of FEMA, the United States’ natural disaster management agency. Kizilay, Turkey’s traditional relief agency but now a ghost of its previous self, was nowhere to be seen after the earthquakes. AFAD, its replacement, also failed to show up. In the end, neither body provided adequate or well-coordinated assistance to earthquake victims.
Turkey’s citizens are still reeling at the scale of the devastation caused by the earthquake, but they are angered by how state negligence surely contributed to a high death toll. Images from badly affected towns and cities show one apartment block after another completely pancaked, evidence of widespread code- and construction-related violations and corruption. Pictures from Antakya (the ancient city of Antioch) are revealing of this malfeasance: a large apartment building has collapsed, trapping and killing dozens, if not hundreds, while a similarly sized building next to it stands almost intact, its numerous inhabitants presumably spared.
The Erdogan era in Turkey has been marked by construction sprees: vast apartment blocks have replaced single-family homes in most towns, and the skylines of major historic cities, such as Istanbul and Izmir, have changed beyond recognition. Erdogan is already facing harsh public criticism for his government’s response to the earthquake and for its complicity in allowing shoddy construction in recent years, as well as charges that corruption enabled contractors to get away with raising many poorly constructed buildings that have now collapsed.
Even more important, the social contract that tied Erdogan to the citizenry will come under pressure. Just as the 1999 earthquake rocked the Kemalist state, February’s earthquake is undermining Erdogan and the reputation of power and efficiency that he has long cultivated.
In fact, Erdogan’s image might be tarnished beyond repair once a more accurate account of the death toll emerges—many thousands may still be buried under the rubble—and the public’s grief turns into to anger. Many citizens will conclude that Erdogan has failed in his duties and therefore is no longer worth being feared. In other words, Turks may begin to see him less like the consummate leader of the devlet baba and more like a paper tiger. Already, over the past weekend, thousands of people attending soccer matches booed Erdogan’s administration and called for his resignation.
THE BATTLE AHEAD
Erdogan is a talented politician, and he will do his best to evade the coming furor. To absolve himself and protect his reputation, he will claim that the earthquake was an act of God beyond his control, using his influence over an estimated 90 percent of Turkey’s media to convince citizens that the high death toll was unavoidable given the scale of the earthquake. He may also attempt to shift blame to small construction firms, emphasizing individual negligence and misconduct to absolve his government of responsibility. On February 12, for example, police arrested numerous suspects allegedly associated with the collapse of thousands of buildings.
None of these actions may suffice, however, to insulate him from the fury of the populace. Once the actual death count of the earthquake becomes clear, debates will sweep across Turkey regarding the delivery and coordination of aid and whether government failures ultimately prevented the rescue of trapped people.In response, Erdogan will shift posture and seek to once again instill fear in the citizenry, trying to appear strong and in command. He has already begun to take such a stance, including in his first address to the country after the tremor. With the camera zooming in on his flaring nostrils, an angle meant to accentuate his anger, Erdogan chided citizens for spreading “fake news,” in an indignant tone that seemed incongruous at a moment of such extraordinary grief and loss.
The earthquake and its fallout now present Erdogan with a challenge ahead of the country’s nearing elections. According to the Turkish constitution, parliamentary and presidential elections have to be held no later than five years after the previous polls, in this case in June of this year. In previous weeks, polls showed that Turkey’s Table of Six opposition bloc was running neck and neck with Erdogan’s alliance.
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party, has already vowed to end the corruption that led to many shoddy buildings being constructed and resulted in so many casualties. His remarks suggest that the opposition will use the earthquake to attack Erdogan during campaign season.Erdogan might turn to autocratic measures to influence upcoming elections.
Perceiving a drop in his popularity, Erdogan may decide in the coming weeks to postpone elections. Such a postponement flies in the face of Turkey’s constitution, but Erdogan could use his grip over key institutions such as the Supreme Election Council (YSK), the national board for supervising polls, to delay the vote. Erdogan has wielded the country’s institutions, including the YSK, against his opponents before. In March 2019, he directed the YSK to annul the results of Istanbul’s mayoral election, which the AKP candidate had lost by a narrow margin. The decision prompted outrage and backfired on Erdogan: the opposition candidate won the follow-up election that June by a landslide. To be sure, the YSK is not constitutionally empowered to postpone the national polls beyond June 18, and Erdogan will face pushback for any effort to do so. But he could still quietly compel the YSK to declare that for reasons of force majeure, the earthquake makes staging the elections in June impossible, thereby blaming the ostensibly independent body for any postponement. Even if he were to somehow bypass the constitution, Turkish voters may be so enraged that they punish him at the delayed polls, much as Istanbul’s voters did in 2019.
If Erdogan decides that he cannot or doesn’t want to postpone elections, he might turn to other autocratic measures. His government declared a state of emergency on February 7, suspending rights and liberties in the ten provinces impacted by the earthquake. He is likely to extend the state of emergency once it expires in May. This would mean that in the ten quake-hit provinces—constituting over a sixth of Turkey’s population and many of its most outraged and aggrieved citizens—elections would be neither fair nor free, handing Erdogan a competitive advantage at the polls.
Unless Erdogan can restore his image as the caring and effective reis, the era of Erdogan as a feared and respected leader in Turkey is over. Anger and anguish are building up across the country. Those who love Erdogan love him a bit less; those who fear him fear him even less.
Erdogan, in turn, will try to cling to power, either postponing elections in breach of the country’s constitution or holding unfair polls under a state of emergency. If protests start and spread around the country in reaction to his moves or crackdowns, he could even extend the state of emergency to the whole country. Perhaps anticipating public pushback, he shut down Turkey’s universities on February 11, sending over eight million students to virtual classrooms and dispersing young people from possible centers of protest and rebellion.
A RESILIENT CITIZENRY
A potentially heated showdown looms, but take a step back and grounds for optimism become apparent. In the big picture, Turkey might be experiencing a historic turning point regarding its traditionally paternalistic model of top-down governance. The country’s civil society has done exceptionally well in responding to the earthquake, providing massive and swift relief to victims, while also leading, and even surpassing, government-led rescue efforts. For instance, a Turkish rock star, Haluk Levent, has done perhaps more than some government agencies through his nonprofit group. Turkish Philanthropy Funds, another nongovernmental organization, raised over $8.5 million for recovery efforts in just a few days after the disaster. The country’s strong middle class, mostly a creation of the Erdogan-era economic growth, has taken charge of earthquake relief efforts, and the state and its leaders are playing catch-up.
The resilience of Turkey’s middle class and civil society allow a glimmer of hope amid all the gloom. Turkey’s citizens have now caught a glimpse of a brighter future, in which they are not infantilized and political leaders do not simply style themselves as stern fathers corralling unruly offspring. Instead of producing another paternalistic government, this earthquake could help rebalance the uneven relationship in Turkey between state and society.