English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For June 03/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
Peace I leave with you; my peace I give to
you. I do not give to you as the world gives. Do not let your hearts be
troubled, and do not let them be afraid. You heard me say to you, “I am going
away, and I am coming to you
John 14/27-31: “Peace I leave with you; my peace I
give to you. I do not give to you as the world gives. Do not let your hearts be
troubled, and do not let them be afraid. You heard me say to you, “I am going
away, and I am coming to you.” If you loved me, you would rejoice that I am
going to the Father, because the Father is greater than I. And now I have told
you this before it occurs, so that when it does occur, you may believe. I will
no longer talk much with you, for the ruler of this world is coming. He has no
power over me;but I do as the Father has commanded me, so that the world may
know that I love the Father. Rise, let us be on our way.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on June 02-03/2023
Lebanese opposition parties ‘reach consensus’ on presidential candidate
Hezbollah lashes out at Lebanese judge for alleging group linked with UN
peacekeeper's death
Hezbollah pushes back after indictments in peacekeeper's killing
The moment of truth: Opposition prepares for the official presidential candidate
announcement
Report: 68 votes for Azour, 45 for Franjieh, 15 blank
Report: Macron told al-Rahi Christian agreement not enough for president
election
Berri 'can't sleep at night' because of US sanction threats
Lebanon at risk of Gray listing: FATF report highlights financial weaknesses
Lebanon and Kuwait discuss bilateral cooperation and economic relations
The European Observatory affirms French judiciary's role in seized fund recovery
in Riad Salameh's file
Army chief meets MP Nadim Gemayel, Hasbaya sheikhs delegation
Lebanese economic committees discuss with Kuwaiti economic delegation means to
bolster cooperation
Berri broaches political developments with MP Pakradounian, former minister
Aridi
Block 9: Public consultation meetings held prior to exploration well drilling
Ministry of Environment and UNDP publish study on the quarrying sector’s dues to
the National Treasury in Lebanon
Mortada discusses means to activate cultural tourism with 'City Sightseeing
Lebanon' CEO
GS’s Baissari tackles issues of common interest with British Ambassador
Hezbollah’s game of presidential patience may not work this time/Dr. Dania
Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/June 02, 2023
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 02-03/2023
Iran releases 1
Danish, 2 Austrian citizens in operation involving Oman, Belgium
Israel’s Shin Bet chief meets CIA director for talks on Palestinians, Iran
Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE attend BRICS meeting in South Africa, as bloc mulls
expansion
Three more Europeans exchanged for Iran's Assadi in prisoner swap
US sanctions Iranian firm for helping government censor internet
Anti-Kremlin rebels are back marauding inside Russia and triggering fears
Putin's forces can't defend the homeland
Russia is caught between using its military to fight attacks within its own
borders and invading Ukraine, UK intel says
Two dead in shelling in Russian border region near Ukraine
Putin says 'ill-wishers' are trying to destabilise Russia
Putin is plotting a new front in his war on the West
UN calls for immediate cease-fire in Sudan and path to renewed democratic
transition talks
Aid agencies in Sudan grapple with looting, bureaucracy to deliver relief
I got sandbagged: Biden trips and falls onstage at Air Force graduation
Titles For
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News &
Editorials published
on June 02-03/2023
Question: “What does the Bible say about shame and regret?”/GotQuestions.org?/June
02, 2023
How Sweden Became a Gangster's Paradise/Peder Jensen/Gatestone Institute/June
02, 2023
Saudi normalization should not come at the expense of Israel’s top priority:
Preventing a bad Iran deal/Jacob Nagel/Israel Hayom/June 02/2023
Backlash Against Weaponized Dollar Is Growing Across the World/Michelle Jamrisko
and Ruth Carson/Bloomberg/June 2, 2023
What Erdogan’s re-election means for the Gulf/Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/June 02,
2023
Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on June 02-03/2023
Lebanese opposition parties
‘reach consensus’ on presidential candidate
Arab News/June 02, 2023
BEIRUT: A Lebanese MP has said opposition parties have reached consensus on a
presidential candidate, in an apparent breakthrough that could end a seven-month
power vacuum. Fadi Karam, of Lebanese Forces, told Arab News that “all signs
were positive” that the Free Patriotic Movement, a one-time ally of Hezbollah,
had agreed to endorse the nomination of Jihad Azour, currently the director of
the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund.
“We reached an agreement with the FPM and we are looking for the right time to
announce it officially,” he said after opposition parties met on Friday. “Each
party might announce its stance, but what’s certain is that the FPM endorses
Azour and will announce its stance individually.”He said announcements could be
made before Monday. Karam added that Azour’s backers were “communicating with
other parties, including the Progressive Socialist Party, the Moderation Bloc,
and independents,” to secure more votes to secure the necessary 65 votes for
Azour’s election. “Signs are positive,” he added. Lebanon has been in
constitutional crisis since Michel Aoun left the presidential palace seven
months ago. There have been 11 failed election sessions by MPs since then,
prompting the parliament speaker, Nabih Berri, to say that he would refuse
another unless “at least two serious presidential candidates are presented”. He
warned that “disruption and intimidation would be of no use or
benefit.”Hezbollah, the Amal Movement and their allies support the candidacy of
former minister and head of the Marada Movement, Suleiman Frangieh. The FPM was
Hezbollah’s ally before turning against it after it endorsed Frangieh’s
candidacy. Azour was first put forward by Christian parties and their efforts
are now mainly focused on getting the FPM to approve his nomination. Some other
opposition parties meanwhile have supported Michel Mouawad.
Maronite Patriarch Bechara Al-Rahi is among the opposition forces pressing
speaker Berri to schedule an electoral session. “Berri should have called a
meeting two months before the end of former president Michel Aoun’s term, but
some people violate the constitution,” Al-Rahi said after returning from a trip
to the Vatican. He said the Vatican and France had asked him to “work internally
with other components, so Christian parties would agree on a presidential
candidate” and that he would speak to anyone, “including Berri and Hezbollah.”
Barbara Leaf, US assistant secretary of state for the Bureau of Near Eastern
Affairs, said that the US administration was considering sanctions on Lebanese
officials for their continued obstruction in the election of a new president.
She added in a statement: “The administration is very disappointed in the
current situation in Lebanon, and is cooperating with its local and European
partners to push the Lebanese parliament to carry out its duties. “The Lebanese
people’s representatives failed at doing their job, and the parliament speaker
failed at holding parliamentary sessions since last January to allow deputies to
nominate presidential candidates and vote for them to elect a president.”In a
visit to Lebanon in March, Leaf had warned against “the collapse of Lebanon as a
state” and said that time had “started to run out.” She was surprised that there
wasn’t “any sense of urgency on the part of many political leaders and
deputies.”Reformist MP Waddah Sadek said he was confident that two “serious
candidates” would be officially nominated by the end of this week. “The first
serious candidate is Frangieh. Before next Monday, the second serious candidate
will be announced, after receiving the approval of many parliamentary blocs and
deputies,” he said.
“We will be looking forward to a speedy parliamentary session next week. If
anything happens and the quorum is lost, we will consider this a new obstruction
and a blow to what’s left of the country’s democracy, if any.”Independent MP
Bilal Houshaymi affirmed his support for “the Christian parties’ agreement to
nominate Azour, whose professional position at the World Bank allows him to lead
Lebanon’s recovery out of the abyss.”Houshaymi said Frangieh “isn’t accepted by
most Christian parties at a time when he calls for consensus.”He said Hezbollah
wanted to carry on with its statelet within the Lebanese state, even if at the
expense of other components. Mohammed Raad, head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary
bloc, said: “The presidential election isn’t about the people, but rather about
who wishes the resistance well and who stabs the resistance in the back.” Raad
said Hezbollah "supports Frangieh because we are confident that he will not stab
the resistance in the back and he is capable of being a bridge of communication
between us and the others, including our political adversaries. He is also
capable of communicating with our Arab surroundings, as well as with countries
concerned with Lebanese affairs.”
Those opposing Frangieh’s nomination “are prolonging the presidential vacuum
period and they want to dominate the country at the service of its enemies,” he
added.
Hezbollah lashes out at Lebanese judge for
alleging group linked with UN peacekeeper's death
BASSEM MROUE/BEIRUT (AP)/Fri, June 2, 2023T
Lebanon's Hezbollah has lashed out at a Lebanese judge for alleging members of
the militant group were behind last year's killing of a U.N. peacekeeper, saying
the powerful faction “had absolutely no relation to the incident.”The comments
by Hezbollah’s chief spokesman Mohammed Afif came a day after Lebanon’s military
tribunal charged five men with the killing of an Irish peacekeeper in Lebanon's
south, a stronghold of the Iran-backed group. The indictment alleges all five
men are linked to Hezbollah. The charges follow on a half-year probe into an
attack on a U.N. peacekeeping convoy near the town of Al-Aqbiya in December. The
shooting resulted in the death of Pvt. Seán Rooney, 24, of Newtown Cunningham,
Ireland, and seriously wounded Pvt. Shane Kearney, 22. The wounded peacekeeper
was medically evacuated to Ireland. Two other Irish soldiers sustained light
injuries. “We had nothing to do with the incident,” Afif said. He added that the
investigative judge at the military tribunal Fadi Sawwan “is intentionally
offending Hezbollah.” Repeated calls by The Associated Press to Sawwan were not
answered. A judicial official said Thursday that the indictment includes
evidence from bystanders’ testimonies, as well as audio recordings and video
footage from surveillance cameras. In some of the recordings of the
confrontation, the gunmen reportedly could be heard telling the peacekeepers
that they are from Hezbollah. One of the five indicted, Mohamad Ayyad, is
currently in custody of Lebanese authorities. The four others facing charges -
Ali Khalifeh, Ali Salman, Hussein Salman, and Mustafa Salman - are at large.
Afif refused to say whether any of the charged men are Hezbollah members. He
said Ayyad "was one of the residents who were there during the incident.”The
spokesman added that Hezbollah helped after the incident in “reducing tension
through contacts” between the army and the U.N. peacekeeping force in south
Lebanon known as UNIFIL. He added that Hezbollah later coordinated between
residents and the military judiciary to hand over Ayyad. “The incident was not
intentional and was not pre-meditated. Hezbollah had absolutely no relation to
the incident,” Afif said. On the fatal night, Rooney and several other Irish
soldiers with UNIFIL were on their way from their southern base to the Beirut
airport. Two U.N. vehicles reportedly took a wrong turn through Al-Aqbiya, which
is not part of the area under the peacekeepers’ mandate. Initial reports said
angry residents confronted the peacekeepers, but the indictment concludes that
the shooting was a targeted attack. UNIFIL spokesperson Andrea Tenenti said
Thursday that the indictment was an “important step towards justice”. UNIFIL was
created to oversee the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon after
Israel’s 1978 invasion. The U.N. expanded its mission following the 34-day 2006
war between Israel and Hezbollah, allowing peacekeepers to deploy along the
Israeli border to help the Lebanese military extend its authority into the
country’s south for the first time in decades. Hezbollah supporters in Lebanon
frequently accuse the U.N. mission of collusion with Israel, while Israel has
accused the peacekeepers of turning a blind eye to Hezbollah’s military
activities in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah pushes back after indictments in
peacekeeper's killing
Agence France Presse/Fri, June 2, 2023T
A Hezbollah official said Friday there was "no justification" for linking the
group to an Irish peacekeeper's killing, a day after a judicial official accused
five militants of last year's attack. Private Sean Rooney, 23, was killed and
three others were injured on December 14 when their U.N. Interim Force in
Lebanon (UNIFIL) vehicle was attacked near the southern coastal village of al-Aqbiyeh.
Fadi Sawan, the investigating judge in the military tribunal for the case, had
issued a 30-page indictment accusing five people of "forming a gang to commit a
crime" and "intentional homicide," a judicial official told AFP Thursday, saying
they were all Hezbollah members. The Hezbollah official told AFP on condition of
anonymity that "there is no justification for the judicial official to mention
the group's name." While the indictment does not state any group affiliation,
the judicial official claimed evidence in the case showed links to the
Iran-backed group. But the Hezbollah official denied on Friday that any members
of the group had been involved in the attack, stressing that the indictment does
not mention Hezbollah by name. Hezbollah was "not a party to the problem between
local residents and the Irish patrol," the official said. The group "played a
major role in easing tensions following the incident. It contacted both the army
and UNIFIL, and had a prominent role in encouraging residents to cooperate" with
Lebanese authorities, he added. Hezbollah has previously denied involvement in
the incident, with its security chief Wafiq Safa describing the killing as
"unintentional." Citing the indictment, the judicial official said surveillance
camera footage near the scene of the attack showed armed men surrounding the
U.N. patrol. "Some of them could be heard saying 'we are Hezbollah' and using
walkie-talkies to communicate," added the official, requesting anonymity because
he was not authorized to speak to the press. Mohammed Ayyad, who has been in
custody since Hezbollah handed him over to the army in December, was accused
along with four others -- who are not in custody -- of "intentional homicide,"
the official said.
In January, Lebanon charged Ayyad, the four others and two more fugitives with
involvement in the attack. UNIFIL, made up of some 10,000 peacekeepers, has been
deployed since 1978 to act as a buffer between Lebanon and Israel, which remain
technically in a state of war.
There have been incidents in the past between Hezbollah supporters and UNIFIL
patrols, but they have rarely escalated.
The moment of truth: Opposition prepares for
the official presidential candidate announcement
LBCI/Fri, June 2, 2023T
Intensified meetings and communications are taking place between opposition
teams on the one hand and between them and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) on
the other hand, in order to finalize the details of announcing an agreement to
endorse former minister Jihad Azour for the presidency.
Sources indicate that this announcement is expected within 48 hours, pointing
out two possible scenarios: The first suggests
announcing the agreement without revealing the name, while the second means
announcing both the agreement and the name.
Additionally, the opposition forces are inclined to have their announcement made
by MP Michel Moawad, considering him as their candidate.
At the moment, attention is turning to Bkerke to understand the purpose
of its movement regarding the presidential election.
However, sources within the institution remain tight-lipped about the nature of
this move, which may be entrusted to Bishop Paul Abdel Sater and may involve
various parties. It should be noted that communication with Hezbollah, led by
media officer Walid Ghayad, is still ongoing.
On the other hand, a source within the Amal-Hezbollah duo summarizes the
presidential election process by stating that it remains closed until the other
party agrees on a candidate and announces it. Only then can it be said that this
party has a serious candidate. At that point, the possibility of calling for a
parliamentary session for the election can be considered.
The source pointed out that the session will again show that none of the
candidates' supporters will be able to secure a two-thirds quorum alone.
Therefore, the session may be held in its first round, only to be interrupted
due to a lack of quorum in the second round. Earlier reports indicated that
former minister Jihad Azour had been in contact with several Change MPs
individually, engaging in discussions on political and economic issues. Some of
these MPs expressed optimism in these discussions.
Report: 68 votes for Azour, 45 for Franjieh, 15 blank
Naharnet/Fri, June 2, 2023
Marada leader Suleiman Franjieh could garner 45 votes, while former minister
Jihad Azour could garner 68, if Speaker Nabih Berri calls for a session, LBCI
said in a detailed report. According to the record, 31 MPs from the Shiite Duo
blocs would vote for Franjieh, in addition to some Sunni and Alawite MPs, four
MPs from Franjieh's bloc and 1 MP from the FPM-allied Tashnag.
Nineteen Lebanese Forces MPs, 17 Free Patriotic Movement MPs, 4 Tajaddod
and 4 Kataeb MPs, 8 MPs from the Democratic Gathering bloc and two from the
Tashnag would vote for Azour, in addition to 6 independent and 8 change MPs. MPs
from the National Moderation Bloc and the Saida-Jezzin bloc would cast a blank
ballot, in addition to some independent and Change MPs, the report said, which
would result in 15 blank votes.
Report: Macron told al-Rahi Christian agreement not enough
for president election
Naharnet/Fri, June 2, 2023
An agreement among Lebanon’s Christians over a presidential candidate would be
an “important” step, but “it is not enough for the election of a president,”
French President Emmanuel Macron has reportedly told Maronite Patriarch Beshara
al-Rahi. “Things in the country require consensus with the political forces,”
Macron added, according to al-Akhbar newspaper.“This might curb the drive of
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil, especially that he was hoping for a
change in the French stance that would back the Christian position and reshuffle
cards in the Lebanese interior,” the daily said. Bassil was also hoping that a
changed French stance would “push the Hezbollah and Amal Movement duo to back
down from (Suleiman) Franjieh’s nomination,” al-Akhbar added. Informed sources
meanwhile told al-Joumhouria daily that Macron was “clear” with the patriarch.
“There won’t be a president in Lebanon not enjoying Hezbollah’s consent,” the
French leader told the patriarch, the sources said. Al-Akhbar for its part said
that al-Rahi would dispatch delegates to the political forces and that Bkirki is
also “awaiting the Vatican to conduct contacts with the foreign forces who have
an influence on the Lebanese file, in addition to French talks with Lebanese and
foreign forces, especially Saudi Arabia.”Political sources meanwhile said that
“the Vatican has advised al-Rahi not to go far in antagonizing Hezbollah or the
Shiite sect” and that Holy See officials stressed that “the presidential file
must be discussed with all the Lebanese components.”
Berri 'can't sleep at night' because of US sanction threats
Naharnet/Fri, June 2, 2023
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has mockingly said that "he can't sleep at
night", as he downplayed U.S. sanction threats. "They think they can intimidate
me," Berri told al-Joumhouria newspaper, in remarks published Friday.
U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf had
reportedly warned that her country might impose sanctions on Lebanese officials,
including Berri, if they continue to obstruct the election of a new president.
"I will not call for an unproductive session before two serious candidates are
presented," Berri said, despite an agreement between the opposition forces and
the Free Patriotic Movement on the nomination of former minister Jihad Azour.
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea had confirmed earlier this week the
agreement and said that Azour can get more than 65 votes, while local media
reported Friday that Azour could get 68 votes.
Nineteen Lebanese Forces MPs, 17 Free Patriotic Movement MPs, 4 Tajaddod and 4
Kataeb MPs, 8 MPs from the Democratic Gathering bloc and two from the Tashnag
would vote for Azour, in addition to 6 independent and 8 change MPs, LBCI
reported.
Lebanon at risk of Gray listing: FATF report highlights
financial weaknesses
LBCI/Fri, June 2, 2023
This month, the International Financial Action Task Force (FATF) is set to
release a report encompassing all the weaknesses plaguing Lebanon's financial
system. These weaknesses require immediate attention and demand the
collaboration of all authorities to address the gaps that have pushed the
country towards the gray list, which serves as a waiting room before a decision
is made: either to exit the list or descend into the blacklist, resulting in
immediate isolation from global financial markets, including transactions and
cooperation with correspondent banks. A banking source clarified to LBCI that
Lebanon's exclusion from the gray list came after the FATF determined that the
compliance standards in Lebanese banks are high and professional, surpassing
those of banking sectors in the Arab region. The process of investigating the
source of funds is conducted in accordance with internationally recognized
standards. Additionally, the credibility of the work carried out by the
anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing agency has been highly
regarded by the committee that assessed Lebanon's situation over several months.
The banking source further emphasized that it remains the responsibility of
political officials to fulfill their duties and take immediate action to address
the weaknesses in the financial system once the FATF releases the final report.
There should be no room for presenting weak excuses to avoid complying with the
required measures, whether at the executive, legislative, or judicial level.
Lebanon and Kuwait discuss bilateral cooperation and
economic relations
LBCI/Fri, June 2, 2023
On Friday, the economic authorities, led by former Minister Mohammad Choucair,
held a meeting at the headquarters of the Beirut and Mount Lebanon Chamber with
the Kuwaiti economic delegation to Lebanon, headed by the Assistant
Undersecretary of the Kuwaiti Commerce and Industry Ministry, Mohammed Al-Jallal.
During the meeting, discussions focused on developing economic relations and
enhancing cooperation between the private sectors of both countries. They also
discussed the investment law, incentives, and available opportunities in both
countries. In this context, Choucair expressed hope that the situation in
Lebanon would quickly improve and the relations between Lebanon and the Gulf
countries would return to their previous state. He thanked, on behalf of himself
and the Lebanese private sector, the Gulf countries, including Kuwait, for
hosting hundreds of thousands of Lebanese who receive special treatment.
Choucair stated, "despite the difficult circumstances we are going
through, we remain optimistic about the future. This optimism is based on
several factors, including the support of the neighboring countries to Lebanon,
the agreement to demarcate the southern maritime borders, and the launch of oil
and gas exploration operations by Total, which is scheduled to begin in
September as well as the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran. This could
lead to a truce in the region, and the agreement between Saudi Arabia and Syria,
as the latter returned to the Arab League."
Moreover, he emphasized that the Lebanese private sector has managed to stand
firm and make tangible progress despite its suffering during the economic
crisis. However, the problem lies in the public sector, which is still greatly
affected. Choucair pointed out that significant investment opportunities emerged
during the crisis years, notably in the national industry, which has expanded
significantly, especially in the pharmaceutical, food, detergent, and
sanitization sectors, among other essential goods. These Lebanese products have
gained popularity domestically and internationally due to their high quality. He
urged the Kuwaiti private sector to invest in Lebanon in these opportunities, as
well as in the gas sector. "There will be a forthcoming visit to Kuwait, and we
are awaiting the results of the drilling operations for gas exploration. The
purpose of the visit is to meet with the Kuwaiti private sector, present the
outcomes, and invite them to invest in the available opportunities," he
revealed.On his part, Al-Jallal confirmed Kuwait's keenness to assist Lebanon as
he praised the historical relations between the two countries and expressed his
wish for Lebanon to recover soon. He also commended the capabilities of the
Lebanese people and the Lebanese private sector.Additionally, Al-Jallal affirmed
the readiness of the Kuwaiti Commerce and Industry Ministry to cooperate in
areas that would support the Lebanese economy. He also confirmed the ministry's
willingness to assist the delegation of economic bodies during their visit to
Kuwait by arranging the required meetings and ensuring the success of the visit.
The European Observatory affirms French judiciary's role in
seized fund recovery in Riad Salameh's file
LBCI/Fri, June 2, 2023
The European Observatory: the French judiciary is authorized to decide on the
issue of appointed lawyers assisting the Lebanese cases authority in recovering
seized funds in Salameh's file. The European Observatory for Integrity of
Lebanon has affirmed that the French judiciary is the competent authority to
decide on the case of lawyers appointed in France to assist the Lebanese cases
authority in recovering funds seized in the file of the Governor of Central Bank
of Lebanon, Riad Salameh. This comes after Lebanese Justice Minister, Henri
Khoury, signed contracts with these lawyers. The Observatory pointed out that
Salameh's representative had submitted pleas to the French judiciary, stating
that no decree had been issued in Lebanon regarding this matter and the
appointment of lawyers violated the law.
Army chief meets MP Nadim Gemayel, Hasbaya sheikhs delegation
NNA/Fri, June 2, 2023
Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, on Friday received at his Yarzeh office, MP
Nadim Gemayel, and they discussed an array of various issues. Maj. Gen. Aoun
also received today a delegation of Sheikhs from the southern region of Hasbaya.
Lebanese economic committees discuss with Kuwaiti economic delegation means to
bolster cooperation
NNA/Fri, June 2, 2023
The Lebanon economic committees, chaired by former Minister Mohammed Choucair,
on Friday held a meeting at the headquarters of the Beirut and Mount Lebanon
Chamber of Commerce and Industry, with the Kuwaiti economic delegation currently
visiting Lebanon, headed by the Assistant Undersecretary for Legal Affairs,
Companies and Trade Permits at the Kuwaiti Ministry of Industry and Commerce,
Dr. Muhammad Al-Jalal. Discussions during the meeting reportedly touched on the
means to bolster the economic relations and enhance cooperation between the
private sectors in the two countries, as well as on the investment law and
incentives and opportunities available in both countries. Al-Jalaln stressed
Kuwait's keenness to assist Lebanon, and hailed the "historic relations between
the two brotherly countries."Al-Jalal also stressed the Kuwaiti Ministry’s
readiness for cooperation in support of the Lebanese economy.
Berri broaches political developments with MP Pakradounian, former minister
Aridi
NNA/Fri, June 2, 2023
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Friday received at the Second Presidency in Ain
El-Tineh, Tashnag Party Secretary-General, MP Hagop Pakradounian, with the
current general situation and the latest political developments featuring high
on their talks. Speaker Berri also welcomed in Ain El-Tineh, former Minister
Ghazi al-Aridi, with whom he discussed the latest political developments.
Block 9: Public consultation meetings held prior to
exploration well drilling
NNA/Fri, June 2, 2023T
In preparation for the upcoming exploration offshore activities in Block 9,
TotalEnergies EP Block 9 – Lebanon Branch (operator) published the Environmental
and Social Impact Assessment study (ESIA) on 15 May 2023, on the Lebanese
Petroleum Administration and TotalEnergies Lebanon websites for public review.
RSK, an international environmental consultant, together with the Lebanese
consulting company, DAR, organized public consultation meetings on behalf of
TotalEnergies EP Block 9 – Lebanon Branch on 31 May 2023, in Beirut and 1 June
2023 in Tyre. Public invitations to these meetings were published in twolocal
newspapers (Annahar and Al Akhbar) on 15 and 16 May 2023. The objective of these
meetings was to present the project.Interested stakeholders were invited to
comment on the findings of the ESIA study. The public consultation period is
expected to take 30 days, in line with the Lebanese regulations. Following
thisperiod, the final ESIA report will be submitted to the Ministry of
Environment for approval. TotalEnergies and its partners Eni and QatarEnergy are
committed to conducting the exploration well drilling in Block 9 in accordance
with international environmental standards and in compliance with the Lebanese
applicable regulations. -- TotalEnergies EP Block 9 – Lebanon Branc
Ministry of Environment and UNDP publish study on the quarrying sector’s dues to
the National Treasury in Lebanon
NNA/Fri, June 2, 2023T
Lebanon's Ministry of Environment (MoE) and the United Nations Development
Programme (UNDP) published a new study to explore the environmental challenges
and economic losses caused by the poorly managed quarrying sector in Lebanon.
The study is part of the collaborative effort between MoE and UNDP, to promote
accountability and transparency, environmental protection and sustainable
development. The study on the quarrying sector's dues to the National Treasury
in Lebanon comes after years of exploitation and illegal extraction of public
goods. If better managed and improved, this sector provides an opportunity to
generate much-needed revenue to support the country's economic recovery. This
first ever comprehensive study on the quarrying sector dues quantifies the
damage caused by the quarrying sector and finds that a minimum of 2.39 billion
USD are due to the National Treasury. This figure includes the regulatory and
fiscal costs, as well as compensation for environmental degradation and
rehabilitation. With a volume of 196.87 million m3, a total of slightly more
than 15 million m2 of land surface area was exploited, which is nearly
equivalent to 75% of Beirut's area. If well managed, the collection of these
dues will not only fund social and environmental initiatives but also enhance
monitoring and enforcement, promoting responsible quarrying practices. The
integrated management of Lebanon's natural resources, including its quarries,
will also have a positive impact on the country's economy in the long term,
contributing to sustainable development and helping to safeguard the natural
heritage of the country. This means an approach that includes environmental,
economic, social, and governance dimensions for a comprehensive and effective
management of the country's resources.
"The study will help us to reinstate the rule of law, particularly in the
quarrying sector organized by virtue of decree 8803/2002 and its amendments as
well as subsequent regulations, such as decree 6569/2020 and the Council of
Ministers Resolution 45 of 21 March 2019 adopting the policy on the integrated
management of the quarrying sector. It will set the first real step in
collecting much needed revenues to the Lebanese state from a sector that has
been historically marred by corruption and illegal enrichment" H.E. Nasser
Yassin, Minister of Environment in Lebanon.
"This study is not only significant for understanding the impact of the
quarrying sector on the environment, public health, and economy, but also for
achieving the objectives of reinstating the rule of law, accounting for
externalities in calculating all costs, and preventing further degradation of
the environment" Melanie Hauenstein, UNDP Resident Representative in Lebanon.
The study builds upon the research conducted by the Lebanese Armed
Forces, which encompassed an extensive survey of over 1,230 quarries. These
quarries were specifically chosen to represent extreme instances of
environmental degradation, marked by significant alterations to landforms,
damage to ecosystems, pollution of water resources, and unsustainable resource
extraction practices. The database includes valuable information on coordinates,
area, volume, ownership, type of material extracted (gravel or sand or rock,
etc), and sometimes operators. The type of information presented in the database
and in the study will be used for licensing future extraction activities,
monitoring, and rehabilitation. This will prevent further degradation of the
environment and will support a green and sustainable recovery that the Lebanese
people are aspiring for. Following the publication of the study, a series of
roundtables and workshops are planned with the Ministry of Justice and the
Ministry of Environment to discuss the most effective legal and administrative
mechanism for collecting the dues. --UNDP Lebanon
Mortada discusses means to activate cultural tourism with
'City Sightseeing Lebanon' CEO
NNA/Fri, June 2, 2023T
Caretaker Minister of Culture, Mohammad Wissam Mortada, on Friday received in
his office at the Sanayeh palace, the Founder & CEO of ‘City Sightseeing
Lebanon’, Viviane Nasr. Discussions reportedly touched on the means to stimulate
and activate cultural tourism in the country. The City Sightseeing Lebanon aims
to introduce the Lebanese citizens and tourists to the country’s heritage sites,
whether in Beirut or in the governorates and districts, through the sightseeing
tourist bus, which was known for its cultural and heritage tours in the capital
and across the various regions.
GS’s Baissari tackles issues of common interest with
British Ambassador
NNA/Fri, June 2, 2023T
Acting Director General of General Security, Brigadier General Elias Baissari,
on Friday received in his office, British Ambassador to Lebanon, Hamish Cowell.
Discussions between the pair reportedly touched on issues of common interest.
Hezbollah’s game of presidential patience may not work this
time
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/June 02, 2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/118731/118731/
Lebanon has had no president since the departure from office of Michel Aoun in
October last year, and the jockeying for position continues. Hezbollah and the
Amal movement were banking on Christian division to push their candidate,
Sulaiman Franjieh, but the Christian blocs surprised them by supporting the
candidacy of Jihad Azour — regional director of the International Monetary Fund
and finance minister in Fouad Siniora’s government from 2005 to 2008.
Hezbollah says its man is the “natural candidate” because the other camps cannot
agree on one.Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally, refuses to
call a session of parliament to elect a president unless he is sure that one of
the candidates can obtain the necessary 65 votes. Hezbollah, like the Iranians,
is playing for time — a game of patience that has been rewarding for it in the
past. When Aoun was elected president in 2016, it was only after Berri had
closed the parliament for two and a half years until the opposition finally
agreed. Every time Hezbollah stands firm it gets what it wants, and its
stubbornness haspaid off — but this does not seem to be the case this time. The
question is whether Hezbollah will understand that.
In 2016, the Lebanese Forces caved in to Hezbollah’s demands after party leader
Samir Geagea told his supporters the country could no longer afford to have a
presidential vacuum. The now defunct Future Group also supported Aoun’s
candidacy. The hope was that once elected he would become a president for all
Lebanese, less attached to Hezbollah, but that hope was misplaced: many judge
the past six years to be the worst the country has ever seen.
The hope was that once elected Aoun would become a president for all Lebanese,
less attached to Hezbollah, but that hope was misplaced.
Hezbollah is in a difficult position, both domestically and internationally. It
doesn’t have enough votes in the parliament to elect its choice of president
without help. Also, the presidency is reserved for a Christian. Technically a
president is elected with 65 votes regardless of where those votes come from,
but in practice a president who does not command a majority of Christian votes
will not be viewed as legitimate.
Hezbollah’s candidate Franjieh is rejected by the major Christian factions, the
Lebanese Forces, the Free Patriotic Movement and the Kataeb Party. Nor is he
accepted internationally: it is unlikely that the Gulf states have an appetite
to deal with him and his ilk. So even if Hezbollah manage to push him to the
presidency, the question is what to do the day after.
Meanwhile the idea of federalism, even of partition, is becoming common in the
Lebanese public discourse, especially in Christian circles. Several factions
don’t want to live under the jurisdiction of Hezbollah, but nordo they want
another civil war, so their view is that the best solution is for each camp to
go its own way. Partition or federalism would be bad news for Hezbollah. Former
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon once had a plan to divide Lebanon and
squeeze the Shiites in the south into a statelet that Israel could crush. Soif
Hezbollah push for a president unrepresentative of the Christians, what if Mount
Lebanon declared itself a separate entity? Would Hezbollah want to force the
Christians to be under its jurisdiction?
The group should not underestimate the prevalent anti-Hezbollah sentiment, which
the election of Franjieh would only intensify. What is making matters worse, and
giving the group hope, is the French position. Though in public France has
declared it has no candidate, in the background Paris has been pushing Franjieh
as a president in return for having the judge and diplomat Nawaf Salam as prime
minister. This formula has been rejected by the opposition, as it is too
reminiscent of the Aoun-Saad Hariri deadlock.
Azour’s candidacy may be a tactic to corner Hezbollah and Amal into giving up on
Franjieh and breaking the deadlock.
Now the two major Christian factions have agreed on Azour as their candidate.
Policy observers in Lebanon say this is a maneuver, as Free Patriotic Movement
leader Gebran Bassil cannot be serious about confronting Hezbollah with Azour.
Equally, the Lebanese Forces will not accept Azour because his brother Tony, a
contractor, has a business relationship with Bassil. That the Christian rivals
have agreed on a name has twopurposes. The first is to send a signal that the
presidency is a Christian position and that the Christians have a say on who
becomes president. The second is to corner Berri into calling a parliamentary
session to elect a president.
Samir Geagea once proposed that all members should simply attend parliament and
vote; if no candidate gained the necessary number votes, they should start
negotiating on a third name. Azour’s candidacy maybe a tactic to corner
Hezbollah and Amal into giving up on Franjieh and breaking the deadlock. The
question is, will this tactic work in pushing the different parties to agree on
a president, or we are heading toward a continuing vacuum and further
deterioration of the Lebanese state? The weeks ahead will tell.
• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on
lobbying. She is president of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace
Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.
Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And
News published on June 02-03/2023
Iran releases 1 Danish, 2 Austrian citizens in operation involving Oman,
Belgium
BERLIN (AP)/Fri, June 2, 2023
Iran has released one Danish and two Austrian citizens, the European countries
said Friday, thanking Oman and Belgium for their help in getting the trio freed.
Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg said he was “very relieved”
that Kamran Ghaderi and Massud Mossaheb were being brought home after “years of
arduous imprisonment in Iran."Denmark’s foreign minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen,
said that he was “happy and relieved that a Danish citizen is on his way home to
his family in Denmark after imprisonment in Iran." He didn't name the person,
saying their identity was “a personal matter” and he couldn't go into
details.”Schallenberg thanked the foreign ministers of Belgium and Oman for
providing “valuable support,” without elaborating on what form it took. Løkke
Rasmussen also thanked Belgium and said that Oman ”played an important role.”
There was no immediate word on what, if anything, Iran obtained in return for
the prisoners’ release. Last week, a prisoner exchange between Belgium and Iran
returned to Tehran an Iranian diplomat convicted of attempting to bomb exiles in
France, Assadollah Assadi. Belgian aid worker Olivier Vandecasteele, looking
visibly gaunt, headed back to Brussels as part of the swap. On Friday, Belgian
Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib tweeted that her country was “unwavering in our
dedication to advocating for other Europeans who are being arbitrarily detained”
and had “successfully secured the release of two Austrians and one Dane who were
unjustly held in detention in Iran.” Iranian state media and officials did not
immediately acknowledge a release on Friday, which is part of the weekend in the
Islamic Republic. Oman often serves an interlocutor between Iran and the West
and brings released captives out of the Islamic Republic. An Oman Royal Air
Force Gulfstream IV, which had been on the ground in Tehran for several days,
took off shortly before news of the European trio's releases came out. The
releases also come after Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq visited Iran on his
first trip there since becoming the Arab nation’s ruler in 2020. Ghaderi is an
Iranian-Austrian businessman who was arrested in 2016 and later sentenced to 10
years in prison for allegedly spying for the U.S., charges strongly rejected by
his supporters. His family had criticized Austria for being silent on his case
in recent years.
Mossaheb, also an Iranian-Austrian businessman, was arrested in 2019 and
received a 10-year prison sentence after what Amnesty International called “a
grossly unfair trial for vague national security offenses.” Amnesty had said
Mossaheb suffered from heart failure and diabetes, making his imprisonment that
much more dangerous for him. Iran has detained a number of foreigners and dual
nationals over the years, accusing them of espionage or other state security
offenses and sentencing them following secretive trials in which rights groups
say they have been denied due process. Critics have repeatedly accused Iran of
using such prisoners as bargaining chips with the West. Iran, facing Western
sanctions over its rapidly advancing nuclear program, has experienced protests
in recent months and economic strain. However, it also reached a detente with
Saudi Arabia through Chinese mediation, and the International Atomic Energy
Agency dropped two inquiries into the country's nuclear program.
Israel’s Shin Bet chief meets CIA director for
talks on Palestinians, Iran
Al-Monitor/June 02/2023
Shin Bet head Ronen Bar met on Thursday in Washington with CIA Chief William
Burns amid growing concerns in the Biden administration over the weakening of
the Palestinian Authority and growing tensions in the West Bank. Israeli outlet
Haaretz and Axios reported that Bar arrived in the US capital on Thursday, was
set to meet with senior officials at the White House, the State Department and
the CIA to discuss both the Palestinian and the Iranian files. The Shin Bet is
Israel's powerful internal security service and a strong arm of country's
intelligence apparatus. Senior American officials including the CIA chief have
recently expressed concerns over the destabilization of the Palestinian
leadership in the West Bank. Last February, in an interview a few days after
traveling to the West Bank, Burns expressed fears of a third Palestinian
uprising. “I was a senior US diplomat 20 years ago during the second intifada,
and I’m concerned — as are my colleagues in the intelligence community — that a
lot of what we’re seeing today has a very unhappy resemblance to some of those
realities that we saw then too,” said Burns, adding that his talks with Israeli
and Palestinian leaders sparked his concerns about "more vulnerability and
greater violence" between the two sides. Last March, ahead of the month of the
Muslim holy month of Ramadan, American, Jordanian, Palestinian and Israeli
senior officials gathered for a second meeting in Sharm al-Sheikh in Egypt to
discuss a mechanism for curbing violence and friction in the West Bank. Over the
past few weeks, reports have suggested that a third such meeting will convene.
Israeli security experts are concerned over the growing number of rogue militant
organizations that operate on their own, such as the Lion’s Den, which has been
very active in the West Bank city of Jenin since the beginning of the year. In
addition, the popularity of Palestinian Mahmoud Abbas has seriously declined in
recent years, and it is unclear who will take over his position if and when he
retires or can no longer serve in office. Another concerning element is the
suspension of the World Food Programme aid to over 200,000 Palestinians living
in Gaza due to severe shortage of funds. Haaretz reported this week that
Gaza-Based Hamas and the Ramallah-based Palestinian leadership are both
pressuring donor countries, especially in the Gulf, to support the program more.
According to the report, the Palestinian Authority is also in contact with the
Biden administration and the UN to preserve the aid for needy people in Gaza.
Israel has been careful not to openly comment on the Gaza aid crisis, but did
send senior officials to a meeting at the beginning of May in Brussels of the Ad
Hoc Liaison Committee, which is coordinating international efforts to help West
Bank and Gaza Palestinians and their economies. Israel’s Defense Ministry sent
Coordinator for Government Activities in the Territories Rassan Alian and the
Foreign Ministry sent the head of its Middle East and Peace Process Division,
Oded Joseph. Two other senior Israeli officials were in Washington during Bar’s
visit. Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and national security adviser
Tzachi Hanegbi met on Thursday with US national security adviser Jake Sullivan
in the White House ostensibly to discuss Iran. A readout from the White House
after the meeting said among other things that "Sullivan also stressed the need
to take additional steps to improve the lives of Palestinians, critical to
realizing a more peaceful, prosperous, and integrated region." Israel has upped
its concerns over Iran's nuclear program, as security chiefs have become
especially worried recently, not only over Iran’s moves to enrich uranium, but
also on Tehran's rapidly growing capabilities to launch a military nuclear
attack. Contacted by Al-Monitor, Israeli defense ministry and the CIA were not
immediately available for comment.
Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE attend BRICS meeting
in South Africa, as bloc mulls expansion
Al-Monitor/June 02/2023
Iran, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates foreign ministers attended the BRICS
meeting in South Africa this week, as the bloc seeks to expand its membership to
counterbalance Western powers. Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian,
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud and UAE Foreign Minister
Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan attended the ministerial meeting of the
BRICS nations on Thursday and held bilateral meetings on Friday. Saudi Arabia,
the UAE and Iran are not members of the bloc, which is currently comprised of
Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Iran submitted an application
last year to join as an observer state. Saudi Arabia is in discussions to join
BRICS' lender bank, the New Development Bank, the Financial Times reported this
week. Created in 2014, the bank is seen as a counterweight to the International
Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Prince Faisal held meetings with South African
counterpart Naledi Pandor, as well as Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and
India's Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. Sheikh Abdullah also met with
Jaishankar, Pandor and Lavrov. The UAE's top diplomat held a bilateral meeting
with his Iranian counterpart as well. On Friday, Pandor portrayed the bloc as a
champion of the global South. "The world has faltered in cooperation. Developed
countries have never met their commitments to the developing world and are
trying to shift all responsibility to the global South," Pandor said. Upon his
departure from Tehran, Amir-Abdollahian hailed BRICS as a body that represents
half of the global population and called his visit an example of Iran's "active
presence at international bodies" and a step in Iran's "balanced" foreign
policy. In a pre-recorded interview broadcast on state TV after his departure,
Amir-Abdollahian said that a key topic on his agenda in Cape Town would be "de-dollarization"
in trade with BRICS member states. Iranian officials have been persistently
pursuing that goal in their recent meetings with friendly states. The country's
Deputy Foreign Minister for Economic Affairs Mehdi Safari announced last month
that the Islamic Republic has already proposed to member states of both BRICS
and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to designate a non-dollar currency for
their trade ties "to neutralize the impacts of unilateral sanctions."
International punitive measures coupled with prevalent corruption at home have
driven Iran's economy to the edge of collapse. The value of the national
currency has dropped to all-time lows as inflation soars well above 50%, pulling
a growing number of middle-class Iranians below the official poverty line.
Three more Europeans exchanged for Iran's
Assadi in prisoner swap
Charlotte Van Campenhout/BRUSSELS (Reuters)/Fri, June 2, 2023
Three more Europeans have been released by Iran in return for Iranian diplomat
Asadollah Assadi as part of a prisoner swap in which Iran released Belgian aid
worker Olivier Vandecasteele last week, a spokesperson for the Belgian
government said. A Danish national and two people with dual Austrian-Iranian
nationality are involved, the spokesperson said. Assadi was convicted in Belgium
in 2021 in connection to a foiled bomb plot in France and sentenced to 20 years
in prison. Iran said the charges against him were fabricated. In a statement,
the Belgian government said that the Danish person was arrested in Iran in
November 2022 in connection with women's rights demonstrations. The two dual
nationals were "wrongfully arrested in ... January 2016 and January 2019", the
government said. Austria's foreign ministry said in a statement that its
citizens Massud Mosaheb and Kamran Ghaderi had been released after 1,586 days
and 2,709 respectively. Mosaheb is the co-chairman of the Iranian-Austrian
Friendship Society and had been sentenced to 10 years in prison for espionage,
while Ghaderi is a businessman who was also sentenced to 10 years for espionage.
Danish Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen declined to give more information
about the Danish citizen but said in a statement that he is "both happy and
relieved that a Danish citizen is now on the way home to their family after
having been jailed in Iran". Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran's top human rights
official, said the three men were released on humanitarian grounds, Iranian
state media reported. Belgian's prime minister Alexander De Croo has thanked
Oman for mediating the swap. The Gulf Arab country has good relations with both
Iran and Western countries and has acted before as a mediator. After a stop in
Oman and medical tests, the three will be flown to Belgium's military airport in
Melsbroek. They are expected to arrive late Friday night or early on Saturday
morning. Belgian government officials said that officially there are still 22
Europeans in Iranian prisons, but that no more Europeans will be exchanged for
Assadi. They also said that Belgium is continuing to work for the release of
Ahmadreza Djalali, a Swedish-Iranian national who guest-lectured at the
university of Brussels and who was arrested in 2016 while on an academic visit
to Iran. Iran has arrested dozens of foreigners and dual nationals in recent
years, mostly on espionage and security-related accusations. Rights groups have
criticised the arrests as a tactic to win concessions from abroad by inventing
charges, an accusation Tehran denies.
US sanctions Iranian firm for helping government censor
internet
WASHINGTON (AP)/Fri, June 2, 2023
The U.S. imposed sanctions on an Iran-based technology firm on Friday for its
role in facilitating the Iranian government's censorship of the internet as
anti-government protests have swept the country since September. A firm known as
Arvan Cloud, its co-founders Pouya Pirhosseinloo and Farhad Fatemi, and a United
Arab Emirates-based firm were all sanctioned for helping to facilitate the
Iranian government's attempts to control and censor internet traffic. Internet
disruptions were instituted after homegrown anger over the September death of
Masha Amini, an Iranian-Kurdish woman detained by the country’s morality police,
escalated into large-scale protests. U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets
Control says Arvan Cloud provided interception services for the government,
allowing Iranian authorities to control and censor incoming and outgoing traffic
and surveil data on the servers. The firm also blocked websites at the request
of Iran’s Committee to Determine Instances of Criminal Content. “Free and
unrestricted access to information is a fundamental right of all peoples,
including in Iran,” said Brian E. Nelson, Treasury's under secretary for
terrorism and financial intelligence. He said the U.S. “is committed to holding
accountable those who seek to undermine freedom of expression and suppress
dissent.”Among other things, the sanctions deny the people and firms access to
any property or financial assets held in the U.S. and prevent U.S. companies and
citizens from doing business with them.
Tens of thousands of Iranians had been detained over the protests. While many
have been pardoned or had their sentences reduced, anger still remains in the
country as it struggles through the collapse of the nation’s currency and
uncertainty over its ties to the wider world after the collapse of Tehran’s 2015
nuclear deal with world powers. And Iran’s export of attack drones to Russian
forces fighting in Ukraine has increased tensions.
Anti-Kremlin rebels are back marauding inside
Russia and triggering fears Putin's forces can't defend the homeland
Sam Fellman/Business Insider/June 2, 2023
A small group of anti-Kremlin Russians with armored vehicles crossed into the
Belgorod region of Russia.
Images captured the damage they caused inside Russia, and triggered debate and
skepticism of Putin's regime.
The melee adds to fears that Russia's troops are not up to the task of stopping
a looming Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Heavy smoke rose over the town of Shebekino, one of the latest Russian border
towns to fall prey to a band of heavily armed partisan fighters.
Their latest border raid began Thursday when a small group of fighters in
armored vehicles crossed into the Belgorod region of Russia, a key staging
ground for the ammunition and supplies needed to fuel the invasion of Ukraine
nearby. Scenes captured on social media suggest the militants, who go by the
Freedom of Russia Legion, have hardly delivered on their pledge to "bring
freedom, peace and calm" to Russian citizens. But their operation has succeeded
in one critical aspect: Creating images of wreckage inside Russia's borders that
are reigniting debates among hardliners deeply skeptical of Russian officialdom.
"Now everything has changed," wrote the Russian ultranationalist Igor Girkin.
"The enemy has really grown stronger, created a highly combat-ready
army."According to Russia's TASS state-run news agency, Ukraine's military
"repeatedly shelled" Shebekino, injuring more than 10 people and Russian troops
had stopped them from entering the village. Russian President Vladimir Putin
called the head of the urban area to offer support. The melee adds to growing
anxieties that Russia's troops are spent and not up to the task of stopping a
Ukrainian counterpunch that's been strengthened by Western-made tanks, fighting
vehicles, and long-range missiles."Other milbloggers argued that the raids in
Belgorod Oblast are a Ukrainian effort to divert Russian forces away from
important sectors of the front in Ukraine to border regions ahead of potential
Ukrainian counteroffensive operations," noted the Institute for the Study of War
think tank, which closely tracks the views of pro-war observers on Telegram. To
try to evict the rebels on their second day of the raid, Russia's military
announced it was moving attack helicopters and thermobaric rocket launcher into
the area.
Russia is caught between using its military to fight
attacks within its own borders and invading Ukraine, UK intel says
Sinéad Baker/Business Insider/Fri, June 2, 2023
Russia said it contained a raid near the Ukrainian border by deploying advanced
weapons.The UK MOD said it shows how Russia caught in a "dilemma" about how to
use its strength.Deploying resources against the rebel attacks would divert its
strength from Ukraine, it noted. Attacks in Russia by dissident fighters who
oppose President Vladimir Putin created a new dilemma over whether to use
weapons to defend its own soil or in its faltering invasion of Ukraine,
according to UK intelligence. The UK Ministry of Defence said in an update on
Friday that recent attacks in the Russian region of Belgorod, which borders
Ukraine, left Russia's military with hard choices to make. "Russian commanders
now face an acute dilemma of whether to strength defenses in Russia's border
regions or reinforce their lines in occupied Ukraine," the MOD said. Groups who
say they are made up of Russians who want Putin out of power and oppose the war
in Ukraine have claimed responsibility for a series of recent attacks in
Belgorod last. Russia said action there killed civilians and damaged buildings.
Russia has reported more shelling in the region this week, and said it repelled
an attempted incursion on Thursday. No one has taken responsibility yet. The UK
MOD said "partisan groups" attacked the city on Thursday, for the second time in
10 days, though it didn't name any. It said that "The Russia military and
interior forces have likely seen quicker success in containing this raid than
the previous one," but noted that they had to deploy heavy firepower to achieve
that. The MOD highlighted the strain on Russia's resources — saying it used "the
full range of military firepower on its own territory, including attack
helicopters, and the TOS-1A heavy thermobaric rocket launcher."
That shows the decision Russia's military now has about where to use its
weaponry. Russia's equipment struggles in its invasion of Ukraine have been
widely documented: Russia has used decades-old tanks and soldiers have described
having to buy their own equipment and using some Soviet-era gear.
One of the groups that claimed responsibility for the May attacks in Belgorod,
the Liberty of Russia Legion, said on Thursday that it would soon enter Russia
again and teased more attacks, saying "We are going to liberate the whole of
Russia — from Belgorod to Vladivostok," naming cities in the west and far east
of the country. It is not clear if the recent shelling is connected to the
group, or to other anti-Putin Russian groups that say they've been active in the
region.
The Russian Volunteer Corps, a group of Russians who oppose the invasion, and
that experts say is far-right and neo-Nazi, also said it is fighting in Russia,
but has not given details. The Liberty of Russia Legion says it cooperates with
Ukraine's military, though Ukraine denied any involvement with attacks in Russia
and said the group is made up entirely of dissident Russians. The city of
Belgorod is also where Russia's own air force accidentally dropped a bomb in
April.
Two dead in shelling in Russian border region
near Ukraine
Agence France Presse/Fri, June 2, 2023
Two civilians died Friday in shelling in the Russian region of Belgorod, on the
border with Ukraine, which has witnessed intensified attacks and border
incursions recently, the regional governor said. "Sharpnel hit cars passing by.
Two women travelling in one of them died on the spot from their wounds,"
Belgorod governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said, adding that Ukrainian forces had
fired at a road in the village of Maslova Pristan, in the Shebekino district.
Putin says 'ill-wishers' are trying to destabilise Russia
(Reuters)/Fri, June 2, 2023
President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that certain "ill-wishers" were stepping
up efforts to destabilise Russia and urged members of his cabinet not to allow
this "under any circumstances". He said Russia's Security Council would discuss
ensuring security in the context of what he said were "extremely important"
issues concerning relations between the vast country's 190 ethnic groups.
"Today, we will also be addressing these issues in terms of ensuring Russia's
security, in this case domestic political security," he said. Since sending tens
of thousands of troops into Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has intensified its
crackdown on dissenting voices and pushed the remainder of its beleaguered
liberal opposition abroad. Putin has repeatedly called on Russia to unite in the
face of "existential threats" from the West, but has occasionally faced
animosity from ethnic groups who feel particularly targeted by Moscow's
mobilisation drive. In March, Moscow outlawed the Free Nations of Post-Russia
Forum, an organisation founded by opposition activists that advocates
independence for Russia's multiple ethnic groups.
Putin is plotting a new front in his war on the West
Con Coughlin/Telegraph/June 02/2023
As a child of the Kosovo conflict in the 1990s, the Serbian tennis player Novak
Djokovic must well understand how the bitter sectarian and religious divisions
that continue to haunt the Balkans can so easily result in violence. Bosnia,
after all, is where the horrors of the First World War began after Archduke
Franz Ferdinand, the heir presumptive to the Austro-Hungarian throne, was
assassinated while driving through Sarajevo. In his 2013 biography, Serve to
Win, Djokovic movingly recalled how, as an 11-year-old, he was asleep in his bed
in Belgrade when he was awoken by loud explosions. They were caused by the Nato
bombing offensive against the Serbian capital, aimed at ending the Kosovo
conflict, where Serbian troops were accused of conducting ethnic cleansing
against local Albanians. The Serbs have always regarded themselves as the
victims of Western attempts to prevent them from safeguarding their heritage. It
is an attitude that no doubt explains Djokovic’s ill-advised intervention at the
French Open tennis championship this week, where the 22 Grand Slam titles winner
wrote “Kosovo is the heart of Serbia. Stop the Violence” on a camera lens in
Serbian.
Djokovic appeared to be responding to the latest eruption of violence in Kosovo
earlier this week when 25 Nato peacekeepers were reported to have been injured
in clashes with ethnic Serbs.
This came in the aftermath of recent local elections, which were boycotted by
local Serbs who comprise the majority in northern Kosovo and have never accepted
the country’s 2008 declaration of independence from Serbia. While ethnic
Albanians make up more than 90 per cent of the population in Kosovo as a whole,
the Serb minority has long demanded the implementation of an EU-brokered 2013
deal for the creation of an association of autonomous municipalities in their
area. In a move that subsequently drew criticism from Britain, France, Germany,
Italy and the US, ethnic Albanian mayors occupied offices in the Serb-dominated
region, prompting fierce clashes between ethnic Serbs and Albanians.While the
clashes represent the latest manifestation of the long-running tensions that
resulted in the Kosovo conflict in the 1990s, they should also serve to remind
Western leaders that they ignore this strategically important region of southern
Europe at their peril.
With Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine not going according to
plan, there is nothing Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, would like more
than to see a new conflict erupt in Europe. It could oblige the Western alliance
to divert crucial resources that are currently being channelled towards the
Ukrainian military. In this context, the Balkans provides fertile territory
where the Kremlin can indulge its appetite for political meddling with the aim
of provoking further unrest in Europe. The desire of post-Soviet Russia to
expand its influence in the Balkans dates back to the collapse of Yugoslavia,
which revived the great power competition in the region that had existed for
centuries. Moscow has been alarmed at Western efforts to grant the former
Yugoslav republics membership of institutions such as the EU and Nato. To arrest
this trend, the Russian intelligence services have been actively seeking to
undermine pro-European regimes, most notably in Montenegro where Moscow was
accused of trying to carry out a coup d’état during the 2016 parliamentary
elections. More recently, the Kremlin has sought to exploit the unresolved
tensions between Serbia and Kosovo, as well as those affecting Bosnia and
Herzegovina, to expand its leverage, cause further instability and weaken the
influence of the EU and Nato.
Thus, while the recent disturbances in northern Kosovo are a relatively
parochial matter, they have all the potential – with Moscow’s help – to escalate
into a far bigger crisis, especially when people such as Djokovic, whose father
Srdjan hails from the area, is willing to jump on the pro-Serbian bandwagon. The
Djokovic family’s sympathies certainly seemed evident at the Australian Open in
January, when Srdjan was seen posing with fans holding Russian flags. Nor is it
just Russia that is keen to thwart Western efforts to stabilise the Balkans
cauldron. In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long cast covetous eyes
over the Balkans, where he still nurtures ambitions of restoring Turkey’s
Ottoman-era dominance.
The EU has been increasingly concerned over Erdogan’s attempts to expand
Ankara’s influence in the western Balkans, especially in countries such as
Kosovo and Bosnia that have significant Muslim populations. By far Erdogan’s
most outrageous attempt to stake his claim to the Balkans was his plan, prior to
the 2018 Turkish presidential elections, to hold a rally in the Bosnian capital
Sarajevo. With both Russia and Turkey keen to consolidate their presence in the
Balkans, this is no time for the West to ignore a region that has all the
potential to create a new conflict in the heart of Europe.
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UN calls for immediate cease-fire in Sudan and
path to renewed democratic transition talks
UNITED NATIONS (AP)/Fri, June 2, 2023
The U.N. Security Council called Friday for an immediate cease-fire in Sudan to
be followed by a permanent halt to hostilities and fresh efforts to reach a
lasting democratic political settlement in the conflict-wracked country. The
U.N.’s most powerful body strongly condemned all attacks on civilians since
fighting between rival generals vying for power broke out in mid-April. The
conflict has led to hundreds of civilian deaths and the flight of almost one
million people from their homes to try to escape the violence, according to the
U.N. The press statement from the council was issued ahead of a vote later
Friday to extend the U.N. political mission in the country for six months,
instead of a year, to give the council time to consider its future. On
Wednesday, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres asked to brief the council
behind closed doors for only the fifth time since he took office in January 2017
about the impact of the ongoing conflict on the U.N. mission known as UNITAMS.
It was established by the council on June 3, 2020, to provide support to Sudan
during its political transition to democratic rule. After his briefing, the U.N.
chief told the 15 council members it’s up to them to decide whether to continue
the political mission to Sudan or whether “it’s time to end it.”After the ouster
of Sudanese strongman Omar al-Bashir in 2019, Sudan embarked on a shaky
democratic transition led by civilian and army leaders. But the generals seized
complete power in a coup in October 2021, before turning against each other.
Sudanese leader Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan and Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, who
heads the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, agreed to restore the transition
but clashed over the terms of the RSF’s merger into the army, a disagreement
that exploded into open conflict on April 15. A week ago, Burhan demanded in a
letter to Guterres that the U.N. special envoy to Sudan, Volker Perthes, be
removed, saying his approach in pre-war talks between the generals helped
inflame the conflict and accusing him of “being partisan.” The U.N. chief was
“shocked” by the letter. After Wednesday’s meeting, Guterres said he reaffirmed
to the council “my full confidence in Volker Perthes.”In Friday's statement, the
Security Council reaffirmed support for UNITAMS, which Perthes leads, and
underlined the need “for strengthened international coordination and continued
collaboration.” Late Thursday, the United States and Saudi Arabia announced that
they were suspending peace talks with representatives of the two generals that
had been taking place in the Saudi city of Jeddah since late May. Sudan’s
military had suspended its participation in the talks Wednesday, citing
“repeated violations” by RSF forces of a U.S.-Saudi brokered humanitarian
cease-fire, including their continued occupation of hospitals and other civilian
infrastructure in the capital, Khartoum. The RSF said it “unconditionally backs
the Saudi-U.S. initiative.”The U.S.-Saudi joint statement said the talks were
being suspended “as a result of repeated serious violations of the short-term
ceasefire and recent ceasefire extension” on Monday.
Aid agencies in Sudan grapple with looting,
bureaucracy to deliver relief
By Aidan Lewis/CAIRO (Reuters)/June 2, 2023
Aid workers in Sudan say fierce fighting, rampant looting and reams of red tape
are hampering efforts to deliver vital humanitarian supplies to the millions of
people who now rely on a relief effort since a conflict erupted in mid-April.
The United Nations estimates 25 million people, or more than half the
population, now need help, up from 16 million before the army and paramilitary
Rapid Support Forces (RSF) began fighting. "Often we cannot move because the
warehouse is being looted or because it's unsafe for our staff to move, or
because for the transporter it's unsafe to go," said Jean-Nicolas Armstrong
Dangelser, emergency coordinator for medical aid group MSF. Truck drivers have
sometimes been detained and supplies seized, he said. The most intense fighting
has been in the Khartoum area, one of Africa's biggest urban sprawls with 5
million or more people, but it has spread beyond that, including to Darfur, a
region in the far west already racked by years of conflict. At least eight aid
workers are among the hundreds of people killed in nearly seven weeks of
fighting. Several ceasefires have been agreed, but they have been routinely
violated and talks in Saudi Arabia between the combatants have collapsed. At
least 1.2 million people have been displaced inside Sudan and another 400,000
have fled to neighbouring states. "It's not just the fighting ... it's also the
lootings, the general state of lawlessness which makes things extremely
complicated," said Alyona Synenko, a spokesperson for the International
Committee of the Red Cross.
At least 162 vehicles have been stolen from aid organisations, while 61 offices
and 57 warehouses have been looted, an official from U.N. humanitarian agency
OCHA said. "It's almost impossible to get anything from outside Darfur into
Darfur at the moment," said MSF's Dangelser. Aid workers say communications have
broken down, hindering both the coordination of aid and payments to staff, which
rely on mobile apps after the regular banking system largely ceased to function.
Port Sudan, the army-controlled port on the Red Sea in the east, has become a
hub for aid deliveries, as well as a centre for government officials and
diplomats fleeing the capital, 820 kms (510 miles) away by road. But OCHA said
only 129 of the 168 truck deliveries that were ready to deliver aid since May 24
had reached their destinations around Sudan.
AID TEAMS IN LIMBO
Aid agencies also say they have struggled to secure visas to Sudan or travel
permits to deliver relief inside the country. "On a national level, it seems
from a bureaucratic perspective, the situation is getting worse and increasingly
securitised," said one senior representative of a non-governmental organisation,
asking not to be named to avoid jeopardising sensitive negotiations about
access. The OCHA official said that, as of May 27, at least 40 visa applications
were pending at Sudanese embassies, and some people had not applied because the
process was unclear. MSF said it had teams stranded for more than two weeks in
Port Sudan without being allowed to move to other states. General Mohamed Othman
Mohamed, the military head of Red Sea State, said there had only been small
delays for dealing with security procedures. "There are no obstacles to the
distribution of this aid," he told Reuters.
An army official said the foreign ministry was handling visas for aid workers
and a national committee was coordinating aid distribution with Red Cross/Red
Crescent officials. The ministry did not respond to requests for comment. The
United Nations, which says it needs $2.6 billion to meet Sudan's aid needs this
year, said the number of people going hungry would exceed 19 million in coming
months. "We're looking at about 40% of the population that will not know where
their next meal would come from," said Leni Kinzli from the U.N. World Food
Programme, which suspended work for two weeks after several staff were killed
early in the conflict. The WFP said on Thursday food for 4.4 million people was
now at risk due to an attack on its warehouses in El Obeid, a city southwest of
Khartoum and home to one of the WFP's largest logistics bases in Africa. The
U.N. agency said it had already lost supplies in Sudan worth $60 million during
the conflict. "As much as we can respond we are responding and we are providing
support, but it's extremely challenging to meet all the needs and reach
everyone," said Kinzli
I got sandbagged: Biden trips and falls
onstage at Air Force graduation
Associated Press/June 02, 2023
President Joe Biden quipped that he got "sandbagged" Thursday after he tripped
and fell — but was uninjured — while onstage at the U.S. Air Force Academy
graduation. Biden had been greeting the graduates in Colorado Springs, Colorado,
at the front of the stage with salutes and handshakes, and turned to jog back
toward his seat when he fell. He was helped up by an Air Force officer as well
as two members of his U.S. Secret Service detail. Onlookers, including some
members of the official delegation onstage, watched in concern before Biden, who
at age 80 is the oldest president in U.S. history, returned to his seat to view
the end of the ceremony. "I got sandbagged," the president told reporters with a
smile when he arrived back at the White House on Thursday evening before
pretending to jog into the residence. Two small black sandbags had been onstage
supporting the teleprompter used by Biden and other speakers at the graduation.
"He's fine," White House communications director Ben LaBolt tweeted after the
incident. "There was a sandbag on stage while he was shaking hands." Biden has
been dogged by questions about his age and his fitness to serve, and his
missteps have become fodder for political rivals as he campaigns for a second
term in 2024. He has stumbled before going up the stairs and onto Air Force One
and he once got caught up in his bike pedals while stopping to talk to reporters
near his home in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware. Biden's personal doctor said after
the president's most recent physical exam in February that Biden "remains a
healthy, vigorous 80-year-old male, who is fit to successfully execute the
duties of the Presidency." Dr. Kevin O'Connor also documented the president's
stiffened gait, which O'Connor said was the result of spinal arthritis, a
previously broken foot and neuropathy in the Biden's feet. Biden is far from the
first national political figure to stumble in public. President Gerald Ford fell
down while walking off Air Force One in 1975. GOP Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas, the
GOP presidential nominee at the time, fell off the stage at a campaign rally in
1996. President Barack Obama tripped walking up the stairs to a stage at a 2012
event. "I was so fired up, I missed a stair" he told the crowd. President Donald
Trump's gingerly walk down a ramp at the 2020 West Point commencement also
sparked concerns about his health. Trump, 76, was campaigning in Iowa when he
heard about Biden's stumble and alluded to his own episode. "He actually fell
down? Well I hope he wasn't hurt," Trump said after an audience member told him
about what had happened to Biden. "The whole thing is crazy. You gotta be
careful about that ... 'cause you don't want that, even if you have to tiptoe
down a ramp."
The audience laughed as Trump recounted slowly inching his way down what he said
had been a slippery ramp at the U.S. Military Academy graduation. "If he fell,
it's too bad," the former president said. "We gotta just get this thing back on
track. That's a bad place to fall when you're making, I think it was the Air
Force Academy, right? That's not inspiring." Meanwhile, GOP presidential
candidate and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis used the opportunity to take a political
shot at Biden while at a campaign event in New Hampshire. "We hope and wish Joe
Biden a swift recovery from any injuries he may have sustained," he said, "but
we also wish the United States of America a swift recovery from the injuries it
has sustained because of Joe Biden and his policies."
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on June 02-03/2023
Question: “What does the Bible say
about shame and regret?”
GotQuestions.org?/June 02, 2023
Answer: Everyone experiences a certain amount of shame and regret over sins
committed in the past. The Bible has much to say about shame and regret, and
there are numerous examples of people in the Bible who experienced these
negative feelings. Can you imagine the shame and regret Adam and Eve lived with
after their sin? They spoiled the perfect creation God had made. Adam and Eve
were in a perfect world, had perfect minds and bodies, and had perfectly close
fellowship with God. When they chose to sin against God, all of God’s creation
was made subject to sin’s effects, including disease, decay, death, and
separation from God for eternity. Every human being afterward was born with a
sin nature—the natural inclination to sin. Thankfully, God is sovereign, and He
had a plan even then to redeem His world through His Son, Jesus Christ, and give
mankind a choice for salvation and eternal life with Him. But Adam and Eve must
have lived out their lives on earth with much regret over their loss of
innocence and its associated blessings. We know they were ashamed at their
nakedness (Genesis 3:10). They must have lived the rest of their lives with
regret—after all, they remembered paradise. Another biblical example of shame
and regret is the experience of the apostle Peter. John 13:37–38 describes the
night of Christ’s betrayal. Right after the Passover meal, Peter tells Jesus
that he would lay down his life for his Lord. Jesus responds by telling him that
on that very night Peter would deny three times even knowing the Lord. Later
that night, out of fear of losing his own life, Peter denied ever knowing Jesus
(John 18:15–27; Matthew 26:31–35, 69–75). After Peter’s denial of Christ, “he
went outside and wept bitterly” (Luke 22:62). Later, Peter was restored and grew
in his faith, becoming one of the founding fathers of the early church. Peter
did indeed “strengthen his brothers” after being forgiven, just as Jesus had
foretold (Luke 22:32). While Peter must have lived with much shame and regret
over his public denial of Christ, his deepened understanding of the person and
work of Christ overcame his feelings of failure. He realized that he was
forgiven by the grace of God, and he moved past his personal regret to feed
Jesus’ sheep (John 21:17). The Bible teaches us that, when we confess our sins
and have faith in Christ’s sacrifice and resurrection, we become children of God
(John 1:12). We are cleansed from all our unrighteousness (Colossians 1:15–22),
and our salvation is eternally secure (John 10:27–30; Hebrews 7:24–25). As we
grow spiritually by spending time with God daily in prayer and reading His Word,
we find ourselves loving and trusting Him more. We trust that God has cast our
sins from us as far as the east is from the west (Psalm 103:12).Yes, we regret
our past mistakes, but that is not our focus. We keep our eyes on Jesus, the
Author and Finisher of our faith (Hebrews 12:2). Paul put it this way: “Brothers
and sisters, I do not consider myself yet to have taken hold of [the goal]. But
one thing I do: Forgetting what is behind and straining toward what is ahead, I
press on toward the goal to win the prize for which God has called me heavenward
in Christ Jesus” (Philippians 3:13–14). Shame and regret are part of what is
behind us. We must learn to forget. Romans 8:1 is a great comfort to any
believer who struggles with leftover feelings of shame and regret: “There is now
no condemnation for those who are in Christ Jesus.” We are sinners, but we are
justified. We have a shameful past, but we have a better future. We used to walk
in foolishness and rebellion, but now we walk in newness of life (Titus 3:3–7;
Romans 6:4). God has forgiven those sins we feel shame and regret over. We can
move on. “I have been crucified with Christ; and it is no longer I who live, but
Christ lives in me; and the life which I now live in the flesh I live by faith
in the Son of God, who loved me, and delivered Himself up for me” (Galatians
2:20).
How Sweden Became a Gangster's Paradise
Peder Jensen/Gatestone Institute/June 02, 2023
After the Russian invasion of the Ukraine in February 2022, Sweden and Finland
abandoned generations of neutrality to apply for membership in the NATO military
alliance. However, there is already a gang war going on in Swedish streets, and
it has nothing to do with Russia.
[National Police Commissioner Anders] Thornberg estimated that more than 30,000
people are now involved in gang violence in Sweden... According to Thornberg,
the situation is "extremely serious," with organized crime infiltrating and
corrupting the democratic society, the business world and the public sector.
Some two million immigrants (20% of the population) now live in Sweden,
according to David Jones in the Daily Mail, Many come from the most troubled
parts of Asia and Africa and have not integrated well into Swedish society.
Rival gangs now shoot each other on a regular basis. In Stockholm alone, 52
gangs are vying for control of the burgeoning drug trade, according to a police
report, and they are becoming ever more ruthless. Some child gang members even
carry explosives in their school thermos flasks. Jones writes:
"Twenty years ago, gun crime was almost non-existent here." — David Jones, the
Daily Mail, February 10, 2023.
"Ten to fifteen years ago, it was about shoplifting when we were dealing with
14-year-olds, but now they deal in drugs and handle automatic weapons... Older
criminals use children to avoid being caught themselves, and for the children,
it is a sign of status to be chosen. It starts as a cool thing for a kid who
can't see consequences and ends up getting involved in gang conflicts."— Police
officer who asked to remain anonymous, document.no, March 1, 2023.
When available resources are dedicated to investigating shootings and bombings,
other crimes such as burglary or theft have become effectively risk-free. This
inversion of law enforcement contributes to a growing sense of lawlessness now
being felt by many Swedes. What is the point of having laws if they are not
enforced, or only used to punish honest citizens?
Since 2010, shoplifting in Sweden has doubled.
More serious crime is also being ignored or de-prioritized by an understaffed
police force. In the city of Uppsala, victims of rape complain that they must
wait for months to be interviewed.... Most available police resources are now
dedicated to combating criminal gangs.
Swedish schools are also becoming increasingly violent, for teachers and pupils
alike. Reports about threats and violence at schools have more than doubled
since 2012. These reports mainly concern students who have attacked teachers
with threats, punches, or strangulation.
In Malmö, Sweden's third-largest city, native Swedes are already a minority. The
city is experiencing a kind of "white flight." Many move to smaller towns to
find safer environments and schools for their families.
While ownership of rifles for hunting is not uncommon in Sweden, owning guns for
self-defence had never, until recently, been a reason to be granted a firearms
license.
There is a gang war going on in Swedish streets. The number of gang members
already exceeds the number of police and keeps growing at an alarming rate.
Pictured: Police officers look at pictures images of seized weapons in Rinkeby
police station on August 31, 2022 in Stockholm, Sweden.
After the Russian invasion of the Ukraine in February 2022, Sweden and Finland
abandoned generations of neutrality to apply for membership in the NATO military
alliance. However, there is already a gang war going on in Swedish streets, and
it has nothing to do with Russia.
Between January and May 2023, Swedish police recorded on average one completed
bomb detonation every two days. If you add the bombs that were in preparation,
but not yet detonated, Sweden experienced one explosives-related crime per day.
Rival gangs increasingly continue to target each other's relatives with revenge
attacks.
In early May 2023, National Police Commissioner Anders Thornberg stated that
more than 1,000 people are initiated into criminal gangs across Sweden every
year. Despite some arrests, the rate of recruitment shows no sign of slowing
down. With three new recruits, many noticeably young, added every day, it is
virtually impossible to reduce the total number of active gang members.
Thornberg estimated that more than 30,000 people are now involved in gang
violence in Sweden. For comparison, he stated that the number of police officers
in Sweden is 22,600. The number of gang members already exceeds the number of
police and keeps growing at an alarming rate. According to Thornberg, the
situation is "extremely serious," with organized crime infiltrating and
corrupting the democratic society, the business world and the public sector.
That Sweden has become one of Europe's most violent countries has finally
attracted international attention. The French newspaper Le Monde lamented
"Sweden's powerlessness in the face of organized violence." The paper quoted
Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson from the Moderate Party stating that the
situation is "uncontrollable" and may "get worse before it gets better."
Kristersson labelled the dozens of criminal gangs in Sweden "domestic
terrorists."
Justice Minister Gunnar Strömmer admitted to state broadcaster SVT that with 62
fatal shootings in 2022, Swedish society has clearly failed in the fight against
organized crime. Strömmer stated that there is no quick fix to the rise of gang
crime in the country and warned it would take time for the government to get a
handle on the situation.
Some two million immigrants (20% of the population) now live in Sweden,
according to David Jones in the Daily Mail, Many come from the most troubled
parts of Asia and Africa and have not integrated well into Swedish society.
Rival gangs now shoot each other on a regular basis. In Stockholm alone, 52
gangs are vying for control of the burgeoning drug trade, according to a police
report, and they are becoming ever more ruthless. Some child gang members even
carry explosives in their school thermos flasks. Jones writes:
"Twenty years ago, gun crime was almost non-existent here. Today, the grisly
murders we see in Scandi-Noir TV series are no longer fictional. Sweden is awash
with real-life crime podcasts, documentaries and books."
In his view, the Swedish justice system, "which many feel prioritises young
offender's rights over those of their victims," has failed at handling the
ultra-violent gang crime of recent immigrants.
"Barely a day goes by in Stockholm without a shooting or a bombing," noted
Swedish journalist Paulina Neuding.
"In one part of the city, housing estate residents have been informed about what
to do if their building is a bombing target. For all too many Swedes, this is
the new normal.
"Under Swedish law, children under 15 cannot be sentenced to any criminal
punishment and older teenagers are seldom given more than four years in
'compulsory care'. So mobsters now recruit young people, arm them with
thermos-flask bombs or guns and send them out as soldiers in their gang wars.
"The country's liberal criminal justice system and the fact that the police were
never trained for such problems have made life comfortable for new gangs in
immigrant neighbourhoods."
"Sweden has become a gangster's paradise – and a case study in how not to
integrate migrants," wrote Fraser Nelson, editor of The Spectator and a
columnist for The Daily Telegraph. He further commented that its "liberal
migration and criminal justice systems have incubated a shocking sub-culture of
violence" and that Sweden's police are losing control of some cities and towns.
While true, it should be noted that France, Britain, and other Western European
countries have plenty of problems of their own from violent crime. Nigel Farage,
former leader of the UK Independence Party said he fears that Britain, if it
continues allowing in waves of young male illegal migrants into the country,
could face the same fate as Sweden. His warning came after the arrest of four
asylum seekers from Afghanistan accused of raping a 15-year-old girl in Kent.
The suspects had arrived in Britain illegally by crossing the English Channel in
small people-smuggler boats from France.
Almost all gang members in Sweden are either first- or second-generation
immigrants, usually with a background from the Islamic world or Africa. Although
many politicians may not like to admit it, this problem was largely imported.
Jama Omar, a Somali immigrant who resides in the troubled Stockholm suburb of
Rinkeby, lost his son to a fatal shooting in August 2021. So far, the police
have not arrested anyone. Omar told the newspaper Aftonbladet that he does not
believe that the legal system in Sweden works. Omar blamed racism from Swedes
for why many Somali immigrants have been killed in gang-related crimes, adding:
"Shootings are happening all over Sweden, but have hit the Somali community
extra hard. The state is responsible for the safety of residents, but we do not
consider our children to be included in that protection."
Gang violence in Sweden has become so widespread, according to Christoffer
Bohman, who resigned as a member of the Swedish police force in early 2023, that
the police are no longer able to contain the problem.
A Swedish police officer, who asked to remain anonymous, warned that rampant
organized crime gangs, using children for their criminal activities, are pushing
the country toward the point of no return. He said Sweden had "lost its grip" on
law and order, and that gangs now effectively have a license to operate free of
reproach.
"Ten to fifteen years ago, it was about shoplifting when we were dealing with
14-year-olds, but now they deal in drugs and handle automatic weapons," the
policeman stated.
"Older criminals use children to avoid being caught themselves, and for the
children, it is a sign of status to be chosen. It starts as a cool thing for a
kid who can't see consequences and ends up getting involved in gang conflicts."
He lamented the involvement of "very vulnerable" young children, many of whom
are under the age of 15 and therefore below the minimum age for criminal
responsibility in Sweden. The police officer remains pessimistic about the
future. "There is no chance. It only gets worse and worse," he replied. "There
is simply no respect for the police" in crime-riddled immigrant areas, he said.
When available resources are dedicated to investigating shootings and bombings,
other crimes such as burglary or theft have become effectively risk-free. This
inversion of law enforcement contributes to a growing sense of lawlessness now
being felt by many Swedes. What is the point of having laws if they are not
enforced, or only used to punish honest citizens?
Since 2010, shoplifting in Sweden has doubled. In an article in the newspaper
Aftonbladet, a number of shop owners stated that the situation for Swedish
grocery stores is urgent. One grocer in Uppsala said that his shop is forced to
remove expensive meat in the evenings, for fear that it will be stolen.
Shoplifting has become a big problem that is not given a high priority by the
legal system. Few people in Sweden are now prosecuted for theft. Traders are
therefore urging politicians and the police to expend more resources on stopping
everyday crimes that affect many people – and necessary, they claim, to maintain
the social contract and people's willingness to pay taxes.
More serious crime is also being ignored or de-prioritized by an understaffed
police force. In the city of Uppsala, victims of rape complain that they must
wait for months to be interviewed. Some of them choose to drop the case because
of that. "We have had women who have waited up to eight months to get in touch
with the police after they made a report [about rape]," said Josefine Agius,
coordinator at the Uppsala women's shelter. According to section manager Andreas
Pallinder from the local police, this situation is painful, but due to a lack of
resources. Most available police resources are now dedicated to combating
criminal gangs.
Despite diverting resources from investigating other types of crime, a
disturbing number of murders and bombings in Sweden are never solved at all.
Swedish Radio News has gone through all the bombing incidents that took place in
Sweden during 2020 and 2021, a total of 186 explosions. The investigation shows
that a person was convicted of either planning or carrying out a bombing in just
12 of those cases. Jon Wåhlander, head of operations at the police's national
bomb squad, admits that the current conviction rate of merely 6 percent is
unacceptable.
Violence has spread throughout all sectors of Swedish society like a cancer. The
Work Environment Authority has received an increasing number of reports of
threats and violence on the job from ambulance staff in various parts of Sweden.
In 2022, there were more than three times as many such reports, compared to five
years earlier. This includes staff being threatened with guns, receiving death
threats, being beaten, or physically stopped from leaving an incident.
Swedish schools are also becoming increasingly violent, for teachers and pupils
alike. Reports about threats and violence at schools have more than doubled
since 2012. These reports mainly concern students who have attacked teachers
with threats, punches, or strangulation.
In Malmö, Sweden's third-largest city, native Swedes are already a minority. The
city is experiencing a kind of "white flight." Many move to smaller towns to
find safer environments and schools for their families.
A group of five Arab immigrants in Malmö were recently charged with aggravated
assault. The incident took place on November 22, 2022. The gang harassed a
Ukrainian truck driver who was fishing, pushed him into the freezing cold river,
and laughed while watching him fight for his life while they filmed the event on
a mobile phone. When pulled from the water by emergency responders, the victim's
body temperature was just 34 degrees, classed as hypothermia.
During police questioning, one member of the gang insisted they were only
"having fun." Four are from Iraq. They arrived in Sweden between 2007 and 2014
and all now possess Swedish citizenship. The fifth arrived in Sweden from Syria
in 2014 and obtained Swedish citizenship in 2016.
On March 2, 2023, an Iranian immigrant stabbed a 10-year-old Dutch tourist and
her grandmother in Gothenburg. The attack, which seems to have been totally
unprovoked, happened in broad daylight in the middle of the city center. The
girl suffered life-threatening injuries. According to the independent news sites
Samnytt and Fria Tider, the assailant had 52 registered offenses on his criminal
record. He had previously been convicted of many crimes in Sweden, including
robbery and assault, but had escaped with lenient sentences.
A few months prior to nearly murdering the child, he was convicted of stealing a
computer from a shop close to the scene of the stabbing. The prosecutor wanted
him to be sentenced to prison; instead, he was given probation. The court said
it was of the opinion that there had been an "improvement in his personal and
social situation."
About 20% of Swedes now state that they would feel safer in their country if
they had the right to self-defence with a firearm. This number might be
considered low in the USA, with its Second Amendment right to keep and bear
arms. However, it represents a major shift in public opinion for a historically
safe Scandinavian nation. While ownership of rifles for hunting is not uncommon
in Sweden, owning guns for self-defence had never, until recently, been a reason
to be granted a firearms license.
*Peder Jensen is a Norwegian author and essayist.
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not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
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or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Saudi normalization should not come at the
expense of Israel’s top priority: Preventing a bad Iran deal
Jacob Nagel/Israel Hayom/June 02/2023
Israeli officials should insist on having the US trigger the snapback mechanism
in the JCPOA to its fullest extent. This will make it possible to move forward
with a Saudi-American-Israeli deal that also addresses Riyadh's nuclear demands.
It will also open the door to joint Israeli-American action against the Iranian
program. Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, National Security Advisor Tzachi
Hanegbi, and his senior deputy Gil Reich are all in Washington for meetings with
senior White House and state officials, ahead of critical decisions regarding
Iran and Saudi Arabia. Israel must not be confused about the priorities of what
should be presented during the talks. It is very important to prevent a
potential error in judgment (perhaps unintentional) and to make sure the United
States understands that preventing a bad agreement regarding the Iranian nuclear
program has not been relegated to second priority after reaching a deal with
Saudi Arabia. The potential for damage is very severe.
The US and the clerical regime in Iran have recently held more talks, which
included mediators from Oman, Kuwait, and others. These were aimed at reaching a
nuclear deal known as “less for less”, which is actually “much less for much
more”. Just reading the recent interviews of Robert Malley, the president’s
envoy to the negotiations with Iran, and Ali Vaez, his successor as the
International Crisis Group’s Iran project director, reveals that the discussions
are serious.
Despite these efforts, there is still the risk that the Israeli focus will be on
a Saudi-American-Israeli deal, which in itself is very important. This could
result in the effort to prevent a faulty temporary agreement with Iran, which
will certainly become permanent, dropping to second place.
There is a close connection between some of the components of a Saudi deal and
proper handling of the Iranian nuclear program, and the right way is to try and
tie them together and reach a deal that will be a win-win for Israel, and also
for the United States, despite the latter potentially not viewing it this way.
In the meetings held between the negotiators from the United States and Saudi
Arabia, some Saudi demands were raised, most of which were not directly related
to Israel, and the decisions regarding them must be made exclusively in
Washington, taking into account the indirect effects on Israel and maintaining
its qualitative edge. On the other hand, the demands related to independent
nuclear capabilities are directly and worryingly related to Israel, Iran, and
the entire region. On this sensitive issue, Israel must refrain from making
mistakes.
According to open-source assessments and publications coming presumably from
Saudi sources, Riyadh’s main demands are as follows: security guarantees;
advanced arms deals; getting the same status as a NATO ally; a free trade zone
between the countries; reducing pressure on human rights issues; and more.
Israel can live with all these demands if its qualitative military edge is
maintained by the United States.
Regarding the “civilian” nuclear issues, the Saudis requested fully independent
capabilities that would enable them to commercially tap their natural resources,
including mining uranium and turning it into a “yellowcake”, converting it to
gas (UF6), and enriching it to the level required to produce nuclear fuel rods
for power reactors (electricity generation), for domestic use and export
purposes. The Saudis apparently demanded that the capabilities be exploited
entirely on Saudi soil. They are unlikely to object to any monitoring and
inspection required by the United States and the IAEA. It will be very difficult
for Israel to accept these demands, as presented.
Saudi demands, of course, are based on the faulty precedent created by the JCPOA,
which gave Iran expansive independent enrichment capabilities and advanced
centrifuge R&D on Iranian soil. It is therefore possible to understand where
Saudi Arabia is coming from in seeing these demands as legitimate, even if one
does not agree with them. In their view, the Iranians, who violated every treaty
and agreement they signed and deceived the world, received the right to
independent enrichment, so why shouldn’t they get the same? Understanding the
Saudi argument is key to the solution that I will present to reach a win-win
situation.
The rationale behind the alleged nuclear deal the US and Iran are working on is
freezing Iran’s progress – i.e. granting Iran de facto approval to enrich
uranium to 60% – in exchange for the release of some of Iran’s frozen funds (in
Iraq and South Korea) and perhaps also the release of prisoners. Israel must
clarify in advance what the dangers in this absurd deal are, and present strong
opposition – even if it will harm the potential progress toward the very
important Saudi deal.
The absurdity in the emerging Iran deal is even magnified when you add up the
time that has elapsed since the idea was first raised by the US National
Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and if you take note of the change in the
fundamentals since then. America’s overarching goal of having a one-year
breakout period is no longer relevant; an agreement will result in that window
total perhaps no more than a few weeks while giving the Iranians tens of
billions of dollars that would enable the regime to recover economically and to
continue financing terrorism.
Since the idea was first raised, Tehran has been massively enriching to 20%
(this is the main problem, although everyone emphasizes enrichment to 90%, which
is mostly semantic and declarative), and to 60%, and even “dabbled” in 84%
enrichment, even though the IAEA is about to close this investigation file. Iran
produces uranium metal, prevents the inspectors from accessing suspicious sites,
and maintains all paths to the bomb.
The deal would legitimize Iran’s violations and allow it to retain all the
assets it has obtained through those violations. At the same time, the IAEA
continues to close its investigation files on the Iranian issue. This could undo
the agency’s very raison d’être.
The agreement will allow Iran to continue in its development and manufacturing
of advanced centrifuges, as well as give it permission to hold on to ballistic
missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. It will also continue
weaponization – the only thing that truly separates Tehran from having nuclear
capability. Meanwhile, its true status will continue to be largely hidden.
The agreement will stop any activity against Iran’s nuclear program by the
United States, certainly in an election year, under the mistaken assumption that
the plan is “back in a box”, as Sullivan phrased it, and will prevent, or at
least make it very difficult, for Israel to attack alone.
All this – while the Iranians attack American interests in the Gulf and in the
Middle East, violate human rights and kill women and girls in Tehran, and
continue their massive support for Russia by transferring advanced weapons that
help kill Ukrainian women and girls.
Therefore, the correct and practically the only way to advance a Saudi deal that
would help bring about normalization with Israel, overcome the issue of Riyadh’s
request for an independent fuel cycle, and take the bad deal with Iran off the
table, is to have the Israelis – during their meetings in Washington – insist on
triggering the snapback mechanism to the fullest extent against Iran, by
reinstating all UN Security Council sanctions that were lifted when the
agreement was signed, including a total ban on uranium enrichment.
Such an American demand, even if it will not come to be in the end because of an
Iranian objection, will pull the rug under the Saudis’ enrichment demands, make
it possible to move forward with a Saudi-American-Israeli deal, without the
nuclear threat from Saudi Arabia, and open the door to joint Israeli-American
action against the Iranian nuclear program.
Any American approval to give Saudi Arabia the right to enrich uranium on its
soil – certainly if it will be without strong Israeli opposition and regardless
of the level of supervision in Saudi Arabia and who will actually be responsible
for the enrichment – will immediately trigger a similar demand from countries
that have already received some civilian nuclear capabilities from the United
States (the UAE, for example) while complying with the so-called “123 rules”
that cover all dangers, and from other countries in the Middle East. A nuclear
arms race will then begin.
A bad nuclear deal will once again inflict a heavy toll on Israel, so Israel
must act against it in a loud and unified manner, even if the potential for
advancing the Saudi deal, which is very important to Israel, is undermined in
the process. This critical issue should remain the number one priority and must
not be included in any Israeli political controversy. Sources inside Israel,
official and unofficial, who express the opinion that even a bad agreement has
advantages, such as giving Israel more time to prepare for a future
confrontation with Iran, are wrong and misleading, and they also harm Israeli
interests.
At the same time, Iran is trying to draw Israel into a multi-front confrontation
and to remain, at least for now, out of real physical confrontation. Israel
cannot allow Iran to get away with that, and at the same time, Israel must
continue to improve its capabilities – military or otherwise. The Israeli
message against an agreement with Iran must be crystal clear; any other form of
conduct will send the message – especially to the Gulf states – that Israel is
weak and cannot be trusted.
*Brigadier General (res.) Jacob Nagel is a senior fellow at the Foundation for
Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a visiting professor at the Technion’s Faculty
of Aerospace Engineering. He previously served as Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu’s national security advisor and head of the National Security Council
(acting). FDD is a nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security
and foreign policy.
Backlash Against Weaponized Dollar Is Growing
Across the World
Michelle Jamrisko and Ruth Carson/Bloomberg/June 2, 2023
All around the world, a backlash is brewing against the hegemony of the US
dollar. Brazil and China recently struck a deal to settle trade in their local
currencies, seeking to bypass the greenback in the process. India and Malaysia
in April signed an accord to ramp up usage of the rupee in cross-border
business. Even perennial US ally France is starting to complete transactions in
yuan.Currency experts are leery of sounding like the Cassandras who have,
embarrassingly, predicted the dollar’s imminent demise on any number of
occasions over the past century. And yet in observing this sudden wave of
agreements aimed at sidestepping the dollar, they detect the sort of meaningful
action, however small and gradual, that was typically missing in the past.
For many global leaders, their rationales for taking these measures are
strikingly similar. The greenback, they say, is being weaponized, used to push
America’s foreign-policy priorities — and punish those that oppose them.
Nowhere has that been more evident than in Russia, where the US has brought
unprecedented financial pain to bear on Vladimir Putin’s regime in response to
the invasion of Ukraine. The Biden administration has imposed sanctions, frozen
hundreds of billions of dollars of Moscow’s foreign reserves, and, in concert
with Western allies, all but ousted the country from the global banking system.
For much of the world, it’s been a stark reminder of their own dependency on the
dollar, regardless of what they think of the war.
And that’s the dilemma Washington officials face: By increasingly relying on the
greenback to fight their geopolitical battles, not only do they risk denting the
dollar’s preeminent place in world markets, but they could ultimately undermine
their ability to exert influence on the global stage. To ensure long-term
efficacy, sanctions are often better left as a threat and not actually carried
out, according to Daniel McDowell, author of Bucking the Buck: US Financial
Sanctions and the International Backlash Against the Dollar.
“Now, a rational actor that knows it could potentially be in that situation in
the future is going to prepare for that scenario, and it does make your coercive
threats, your deterrent threats, less effective,” said McDowell, the director of
undergraduate studies in the political science department at Syracuse
University. “Maybe the change is marginal now, but even if it ultimately
culminates in something that doesn’t dethrone the dollar,” it still matters in
how it “can reduce American economic power.”Undoubtedly, part of the shift away
from the dollar is being orchestrated by China. President Xi Jinping is seeking
to carve out a bigger role for the yuan in the global financial system, and his
government has made expanding the currency’s use abroad a priority.
Yet much of the push is happening without Beijing’s involvement.
India — hardly a strategic ally of China — and Malaysia in April announced a new
mechanism to conduct bilateral trade in rupees. It’s part of a broader effort by
the Narendra Modi administration — which hasn’t signed on to the US-led
sanctions campaign against Russia — to bypass the dollar for at least some
international transactions. A month later, the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations agreed to boost the use of member currencies for regional trade and
investment. And South Korea and Indonesia just weeks ago signed an accord to
promote direct exchanges of the won and rupiah.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva lashed out at the dollar’s
dominance while visiting Shanghai in April. Standing at a podium surrounded by
the flags of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the so-called BRICS
nations, he called on the world’s largest developing economies to come up with
an alternative to replace the greenback in foreign trade, asking “who decided
that the dollar was the (trade) currency after the end of gold parity?”
He was harkening back to the early 1970s, when the post-WWII accord — known as
Bretton Woods — that had made the dollar the center of global finance was
unraveling. The agreement’s collapse did little to blunt the dollar’s preeminent
position. To this day, it serves as the world’s dominant reserve currency, which
has juiced demand for US bonds and allowed the country to run massive trade and
budget deficits
The currency’s centrality to the global payments system also allows America to
wield unique influence over the economic destiny of other nations.
About 88% of all global foreign-exchange transactions, even those not involving
the US or US companies, are in dollars, according to the most recent data from
the Bank for International Settlements. Because banks handling cross-border
dollar flows maintain accounts at the Federal Reserve, they’re susceptible to US
sanctions. While the campaign of financial punishments against Russia is the
latest and most high-profile example, both Democrat and Republican
administrations have used sanctions on countries including Libya, Syria, Iran
and Venezuela in recent years. The Biden administration has averaged 1,151 new
designations per year to the Office of Foreign Assets Control’s list of
specially designated nationals, according to a recent report from the Center for
Economic and Policy Research. That’s up from an average of 975 during the Trump
administration, and 544 during President Obama’s first four-year term.
“Countries have chafed for decades under US dollar dominance,” said Jonathan
Wood, principal for global issues at consultancy Control Risks. “More aggressive
and expansive use of US sanctions in recent years reinforces this discomfort –
and coincides with demands by major emerging markets for a new distribution of
global power.”
A representative for the Treasury referred Bloomberg to comments Secretary Janet
Yellen made in a mid-April interview with CNN, in which she acknowledged that
“there is risk when we use financial sanctions that are linked to the role of
the dollar that over time it could undermine the hegemony of the dollar.”But she
noted that the greenback “is used as a global currency for reasons that are not
easy for other countries to find an alternative with the same properties.”Market
watchers agree. Even as a more countries look to lessen their reliance on the
dollar, few expect its preeminent position in global trade and finance to be
threatened any time soon. For one, there’s little sign any other currency could
provide the same level of stability, liquidity and safety, they say. What’s
more, the vast majority of the US’s advanced-economy allies, making up more than
50% of global gross domestic product, have shown little urgency in pivoting from
the greenback. In fact, the dollar has rallied versus the bulk of its major
peers since the US stepped up its sanctions against Russia last year, a sign
that any decline in its global status is likely to be a long, slow process.
“I cannot see any asset replacing the dollar as the dominant currency, not for
the next generation,” said George Boubouras, a three-decade markets veteran and
head of research at K2 Asset Management in Melbourne. “Nothing comes close to
the might of the US economy. China has its issues with aging demographics, and
the euro has struggled to truly gain ground. The dollar will not be de-throned
for the foreseeable future.”
BRICS Backlash
Still, the drumbeat of de-dollarization is continuing unabated in the developing
world. Pakistan is looking to pay for Russian crude imports in yuan, the
country’s power minister said last month, while earlier this year the United
Arab Emirates said it was in early-stage discussions with India on ways to boost
non-oil commerce in rupees. Earlier this week the BRICS nations asked the bloc’s
specially created bank to provide guidance on a how a potential new shared
currency might work, including how it could shield member countries from the
impact of sanctions such as those imposed on Russia. “Without a doubt, de-dollarization
is accelerating and will continue for years to come,” said Vishnu Varathan, head
of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Singapore. “The US made a
calculated decision to use the dollar to inflict pain, and there’s likely to be
long-term consequences.”
What Erdogan’s re-election means for the Gulf
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/June 02, 2023
Turkish elections were held at a time when the region had already entered into
an era of de-escalation and normalization. Within that context, the outcome of
the elections in Turkiye was particularly important for the Gulf states that
look for predictable Turkish foreign policy in the post-election era.
Gulf states maintained a neutral stance without making any statements through
official nor non-official channels during the election season in Turkiye,
adopting mostly a “wait-and-see” approach. However, the outcome of the elections
was highly critical for them as Turkiye is a major actor in the region where the
Gulf states have significant investments and projects in accordance with their
ambitious national visions.
Leaderships in the Gulf states were among the first to congratulate President
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on his re-election. Gulf states immediately expressed their
strong commitment to maintain and further improve the ongoing process of
enhancing relations with Ankara during Erdoğan’s upcoming term.
With Erdoğan securing another five-year term now, what is next for the
Turkish-Gulf relations? Given the current atmosphere of reconciliation in the
region, Ankara will continue to prioritize its relations with the Gulf states,
which are important actors in Turkiye’s trade and defense markets. In this
regard, Ankara will try to deepen its economic, political and security ties with
the individual Gulf states. In doing this, it is likely that the Turkish-Gulf
relations will continue to have a personalized nature as it has been in the past
two decades. Today, many leaders use personal diplomacy in establishing
relations with foreign leaders as a “shortcut” to achieve foreign policy
objectives. Erdoğan is certainly one of those leaders in the world who use the
power of personal diplomacy, which is often considered a practical way to
resolve crises and extend bilateral cooperation. Therefore, the next five years
of Erdoğan’s tenure are likely to bring a continuation of the personalities’
cooperation on a range of areas.
In the new era, as an external actor, Turkiye should establish a unified and
comprehensive strategy towards the Gulf Cooperation Council itself, while it
could still continue to bilaterally cooperate with individual GCC states on
separate dossiers. Turkiye-GCC relations still require a solid strategic and
institutionalized partnership. Personalized foreign policy may bring with itself
benefits, but achieving an institutional level would turn the relationship into
a sustained engagement that could boost relations to an altogether new level.
Besides this, Turkiye’s bilateral ties with each GCC state have their own
dynamics. For instance, the case of the Turkish-Saudi relationship is an
interesting one. The relations between Ankara and Riyadh were relatively cordial
during the 2000s, only to witness a sharp downturn during the 2010s. With the
start of the 2020s, both countries have again worked toward restoring a positive
trend. Recent reconciliation efforts indicate that the positive momentum
achieved is likely to continue.
Given the current atmosphere of reconciliation in the region, Ankara will
continue to prioritize its relations with the Gulf states.
Under the current leaderships in two countries, Ankara and Riyadh are expected
to continue pursuing ambitious foreign policy agendas. There are three key
areas, namely economic, defense, and regional/international, where the
Turkish-Saudi relationship is expected to develop over the next five years. Both
countries signed multiple deals in March with this objective in mind.
Additionally, there may be closer cooperation on other regional issues of mutual
interest. For instance, Ankara and Riyadh have a stake in resolving the ongoing
Sudanese crisis and could collaborate to reach a settlement between the warring
factions. It is noteworthy that Qatar, with whom Ankara’s relations have rapidly
improved in the past decade, was the first Gulf state to congratulate Erdoğan on
his electoral success. Another five years is likely to witness more Qatari
investments in Turkiye parallel with a growing role of Turkish defense industry
in Qatar. Although Turkish-Qatari relations found solid ground due to both
regional and global factors, the leaderships’ role in enhancing this
relationship shouldn’t be underestimated.
Turkish-Qatari relations will also see closer cooperation on regional issues of
mutual interest. For instance, Syria and the issue of the repatriation of the
Syrian refugees in Turkiye will be among those issues. In his victory speech,
Erdoğan said Turkiye would repatriate at least one million Syrians to northern
Syria, liberated from terrorist groups, with a Qatari-backed housing project.
Besides Syria, Libya and Sudan will be regional dossiers that Turkiye and Qatar
will likely continue to cooperate with.
There are certainly areas that other GCC states, such as the UAE, would
cooperate with Turkiye in Erdoğan’s tenure. This week, Turkiye and the UAE
ratified the free trade deal, inked in March, to increase trade between two
countries to $40 billion in the next five years. It remains to be seen whether
other GCC states would follow the same path.
Meanwhile, it is also essential to consider the international dimension,
particularly the outcome of the 2024 US presidential elections which may
significantly influence Turkiye’s relations with the Gulf states. Keeping this
in mind, it should be noted that there are still political disagreements between
Turkiye and some GCC states that parties should engage into an “agree to
disagree'' understanding to avoid future deadlocks.
Erdoğan is expected to visit the Gulf and Egypt soon, which reflects the
importance of the Gulf states in the Turkish foreign policy agenda in the
upcoming term. In light of the recent rapprochement process with the Gulf
states, let us hope for a new Turkish approach to the Gulf region that may go
beyond the economic-and-security nexus and include a sociocultural dimension to
bring long-term benefits for all sides.
• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s
relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz