Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 29-30/2023
Deputy Governor's Possible Resignation Puts Lebanon's Economic Reform Plan at Risk
LBCI/July 29/2023
It seems that the resignation of the First Deputy Governor, Wissam Mansouri, is now behind him, following the positive atmosphere that prevailed during the meeting between the four deputies and Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati last Thursday. On Monday, Mansouri will hold a press conference to announce his plan, which represents a complete departure from the politics that have been adopted for thirty years, as gradual behavioral change is deemed necessary, according to the sources. Otherwise, the most vulnerable people will be the ones who suffer the most. During his conference, Mansouri explained that implementing the proposed reform plan would allow for the liberation of the exchange rate.  The core of this plan involves lending the government in dollars, followed by the approval of capital control and the restructuring of banks and the 2023 budget within the next six months, which is considered more than sufficient, according to the sources. Meanwhile, the security forces will be on guard against those manipulating the exchange rate and engaging in dollar speculation. With the approval of the budget and capital control, the government will become self-reliant, and at the same time, stabilizing public sector salaries will be possible through increasing tax revenues and improving state income, as per the plan.  It is worth noting that the government had previously requested a loan of 1.2 billion dollars to cover expenses and salaries, with the requirement set by the deputies of the Governor to enact a law for it.
According to sources from the deputies of the Governor, Mansouri's plan has encountered strong opposition so that the government will present it as a draft law to the Parliament. Suppose there are opposing voices in formulating the project by the caretaker government. In that case, it can still be adopted through the support of ten deputies to present it as a legislative proposal. However, since borrowing through a government project faces legal obstacles after the State Council's rejection of borrowing from the compulsory reserves due to the absence of any monetary and credit law conditions and the impossibility of using any amount from the compulsory reserves, the situation is complicated. In the face of this reality and with the opposition boycotting any legislative session in the absence of a president, will the remaining major blocs, including Hezbollah and Amal Movement, respond to their call for legislation? The Democratic Gathering will discuss the borrowing proposal by studying its social, health, educational, and living impacts on people in order to act accordingly. As for the Free Patriotic Movement's problem is not with the principle of legislation if they find it necessary, but rather the core of the proposed plan and whether it complements old policies. In any case, the matter is subject to the upcoming meeting of the Strong Lebanon bloc.

Two army helicopters head to Greece to help extinguish fires
LBCI/July 29/2023
The following statement was issued on Saturday by the Lebanese Army Command - Directorate of Guidance: "On July 29, 2023, two PUMA helicopters belonging to the Air Force, carrying a group of 13 personnel including officers, soldiers, and technicians, departed from the Hamat Airport. They headed to a military airport on the island of Rhodes, Greece, to carry out a mission supporting the Greek authorities in extinguishing fires."

The Story of Salemeh: Salemeh Got Lucky
LBCI/July 29/2023
In late 2007, the global financial crisis began, causing major financial sectors worldwide to collapse and incur massive losses. However, Lebanon seemed to be in a different situation. The monetary stability in Lebanon and the people's impression of the banking sector's resilience, which they trusted, prompted many depositors, especially expatriates, to place their money in Lebanese banks. In figures, the banking sector received $11.3 billion in deposits in 2008 and $19.2 billion in 2009. Over the years, the total deposits in banks reached $103 billion. The balance of payments recorded a surplus of $7.8 billion, and economic growth reached 10%, the highest in the past 20 years, despite the events of May 7, 2008.

Derian, Grillo meet
NNA/July 29/2023
Grand Mufti of the Lebanese Republic, Sheikh Abdul-Latif Derian, received at Dar al-Fatwa the French Ambassador to Lebanon, Anne Grillo, on a farewell visit upon the end of her diplomatic mission in the country. The pair reportedly discussed Lebanese affairs and ways to enhance cooperation between the two countries. Two army helicopters head to Greece to help extinguish fires

Lebanon's Permanent Mission to UN issues statement clarifying recent remarks on Southern land borders
LBCI/July 29/2023
Lebanon's Permanent Mission to the United Nations in New York issued a statement in response to the remarks made by the Acting Permanent Representative to the United Nations in New York, Jean Murad, during the open debate held by the Security Council on the situation in the Middle East on July 27, 2023. The statement read that Lebanon's borders are well-defined and internationally recognized based on the 1923 Paulet–Newcombe Agreement and the official maps pertaining to these borders have been deposited with the United Nations. Additionally, the use of the term "completing the demarcation of the Southern land borders," as mentioned in the speech of the Lebanese representative, was an unintended expression and not an official document deposited in the records of the United Nations. It clarified that the intention was to demonstrate, prove, and confirm Israel's physical withdrawal to the internationally-drawn and UN-deposited borders. In other words, Israel's immediate and unconditional withdrawal from several points and areas still occupied within the internationally recognized Lebanese territory. The statement reaffirmed that the mission, following the directives of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants, is committed in all UN meetings to expressing Lebanon's consensus on adhering to international legitimacy and all its resolutions, particularly those aimed at ending the occupation and Israeli violations.

European Observatory laments lack of legal action taken against BDL's Riad Salameh
LBCI/July 29/2023
The European Observatory for the Integrity of Lebanon expressed regret over the end of Riad Salameh's tenure as the Governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon without any legal action taken against him by the Lebanese judiciary, similar to what happened with the European judiciary. The observatory expressed apprehension about the upcoming trajectory, especially in light of the First Deputy Governor's reluctance to assume his duties without legislating the infringement on reserves, which includes using depositors' funds to finance the state. "Why does the First Deputy Governor not assume the responsibilities of the Governor, apply the Monetary and Credit Law, and end the matter while demanding legislation to infringe on reserves as if the deputy governors already assume they will be violating the law?" questioned the observatory.

Hezbollah stands firm: Government must take responsibility amid challenges
LBCI/July 29/2023
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah reaffirmed the government's responsibility towards the people, regardless of the challenges, during the conclusion of the Ashura procession in the southern suburb. He emphasized that the Parliament should not be paralyzed and stressed the need for crucial legislation to be dealt with at the very least. Nasrallah considered that initiating serious bilateral dialogues could break through the existing impasse concerning the presidential elections, and this is what they are working on and cooperating towards, hoping to achieve a result. He asserted, "Lebanon is the one being attacked, and Israel still occupies part of our land, having reoccupied part of the Ghajar village and speaks audaciously about provocations." He addressed the "Zionists," warning them to be cautious of any foolishness or choices, stating that the resistance would not hesitate in fulfilling its responsibilities in deterrence or liberation. He asserted that the resistance will be prepared for any decision and will not remain silent regarding any foolish actions.

Nasrallah warns Israel against any mistake, pins hope on talks with FPM
Naharnet/July 29/2023
Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Saturday warned Israel against committing any “mistake or foolishness,” as he said that his party’s dialogue with the Free Patriotic Movement might lead to a presidential breakthrough.
“The enemy’s entity is still occupying a part of our land in the Shebaa Farms and the Kfarshouba Hills and over the past weeks it re-occupied a part of the Ghajar village. It is provoking, violating and occupying territory while very insolently talking about the resistance’s provocations on the border,” Nasrallah said in a televised address marking the Shiite holy day of Ashura. “From here I warn the Israelis against any foolishness or wrong choices. The valiant, honorable resistance in Lebanon will not be lenient and will not give up its responsibilities -- neither in protection nor in deterrence and liberation,” Nasrallah added.
Hezbollah "will not bow to this shaky and crumbling entity and it will be ready to confront any mistake or foolishness," Nasrallah vowed. As for the domestic situation, Nasrallah pinned hope on Hezbollah's ongoing dialogue with the FPM, which has reportedly made "major progress." "It is clear that everyone will wait for the September return of the French envoy and the initiative he has talked about, and we believe that there is a chance until that time comes to open the door to serious and strenuous bilateral talks that might break the current impasse in the presidential file," Hezbollah's supremo said. Apparently referring to the dialogue with the FPM, he added: "This is what we're working on and we will see what we can achieve in the coming days." Nasrallah also said that the caretaker Cabinet should "continue to shoulder its responsibilities within the allowed constitutional restraints" and that "it is unacceptable to paralyze parliament under any excuse when it comes to necessary legislation and everything related to citizens' lives."

Lebanon's Hezbollah leader urges Muslims to 'punish' Quran desecrators if governments fail to do so
BAGHDAD (AP)/Sat, July 29, 2023
The leader of Lebanon’s Shiite militant group Hezbollah said Saturday that if governments of Muslim-majority nations do not act against countries that allow the desecration of the Quran, Muslims should “punish” those who facilitate attacks on Islam's holy book. The comments by Hassan Nasrallah came in a video address to tens of thousands gathered in Beirut’s southern suburbs to mark Ashoura, a Shiite holy day commemorating the 7th century martyrdom of the Prophet Muhammad’s grandson Hussein. Nasrallah often uses religious occasions to send political messages to followers, and on Saturday slammed recent incidents in which the Quran was burned or otherwise desecrated at authorized demonstrations in Sweden and Denmark. He said Muslims should watch for the outcome of an emergency meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, scheduled to take place in Baghdad on Monday to discuss the organization’s response to the Quran burnings. The organization and its member states should “send a firm, decisive and unequivocal message to these governments that any repeat of the attacks will be met with a boycott,” Nasrallah said. If they do not, he said, Muslim youth should “punish the desecrators.” He did not elaborate what such a boycott and punishment should entail. Members of the crowd, who carried banners with religious slogans alongside the flags of Hezbollah, Lebanon and Palestine, chanted, “Oh, Quran, we are at your service; Oh, Hussein, we are at your service.”
Shiites represent over 10% of the world’s 1.8 billion Muslims and view Hussein as the rightful successor to the Prophet Muhammad. Hussein’s death in battle at the hands of Sunnis at Karbala, south of Baghdad, ingrained a deep rift in Islam and continues to this day to play a key role in shaping Shiite identity.
Millions of Shiite Muslims in Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and around the world on Friday commemorated Ashoura, while Saturday marked the culmination of the observances in countries such as Lebanon, Iraq and Syria.
Hundreds of thousands of pilgrims gathered in the Iraqi city of Karbala, where Hussein is entombed in a gold-domed shrine. In the streets of the Baghdad suburb of Sadr City, mourners gathered to watch reenactments of the Battle of Karbala and Hussein’s death.In the streets, young men clad in black and white slashed their heads with swords and knives to demonstrate their grief. Friends swabbed each other’s heads with tissues and handed each other water.
In Syria’s capital, Damascus, the crowds were mourning not only the death of Hussein but a deadly attack in the suburb of Sayida Zeinab, home to a shrine to Zeinab, the daughter of the first Shiite imam, Ali, and granddaughter of the Prophet Muhammad. A bomb hidden in a motorcycle exploded there on Thursday, killing at least six people and wounding dozens more. On Tuesday, another bomb in a motorcycle had wounded two people. On Friday, the Islamic State group — a Sunni militant group that often targets Shiites — claimed responsibility for the attacks, saying Thursday’s bombing came “during their annual polytheistic rituals.” The group’s extreme interpretation of Islam holds Shiite Muslims to be apostates.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 29-30/2023
US Calls on Russia to Cease ‘Irresponsible Behavior’ in Syria after Drone Hit with Flare
AFP/29 July 2023
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Saturday called on Russia to abide by the laws of the sky and cease "irresponsible behavior" when asked about Russian attacks on US drones in Syria. The US military said a MQ-9 drone over Syria was "severely" damaged when it was hit with a flare from a Russian fighter jet earlier this week, the latest in a series of close interactions between Russian and US military aircraft in the region. "We call upon the Russian leadership to make sure that they issue guidance to their troops to abide by the laws of the sky and make sure that they cease this irresponsible behavior," Austin said, when asked about the incident in a news conference in Brisbane, Australia. Austin and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken are in Australia for the annual Australia-US Ministerial (AUSMIN) dialogue. "We'll continue to engage using the established channels to convey our concern and we'll continue to engage senior leadership as appropriate. But, again, we will continue to operate, as we have always operated in the airspaces, and we will protect our interests and our resources," said Austin.

Senior PKK Official Killed in Turkish Operation in Iraq’s Sinjar
Ankara: Saeed Abdelrazek/Asharq Al Awsat/July 29/2023
Turkish intelligence revealed the death of a high-ranking member of the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK), Masoud Jalal Osman, known as Zagros Chakdar, during a recent operation in the Sinjar region of Nineveh Province, northern Iraq.
The news was reported by the Turkish agency “Anadolu,” citing security sources on Friday. According to the same sources, Osman was involved in forcibly recruiting young individuals from Syria and was also responsible for issuing directives to execute numerous attacks targeting Turkish forces. Sources revealed that Osman had relocated from Syria to Iraq in 2018, becoming the PKK head in Sinjar. He was known for employing force to subjugate the local population. According to the sources, Osman was eliminated by a Turkish intelligence operation while en route to participate in a meeting in Sinjar. Back in 2021, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had threatened to carry out a military operation against PKK positions in Sinjar. However, the operation was never launched due to the tension it caused between Baghdad and Ankara, as well as regional and international opposition to it. In May, just days after the first round of presidential elections in Türkiye, an attack attributed to Türkiye in Sinjar resulted in the death of three Yazidi militants associated with the PKK. Observers believed that Erdogan’s victory in a third presidential term, granting him an additional five years in power, could escalate attacks against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), of which the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) are a major component. Türkiye views the SDF as an extension of the PKK in northern Syria and fears the expansion of their military influence in northern Iraq. A potential Turkish ground operation in Sinjar to curb their influence has not been ruled out.

Turkish strikes in Syria, Iraq kill 8 Kurdish fighters
Naharnet/July 29, 2023
Kurdish-led armed groups in Iraq and Syria alleged that Turkish airstrikes killed a total of eight of their fighters Friday. The counterterrorism service of the regional government in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region in northern Iraq said in a statement that four members of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, were killed and another wounded in a Turkish drone strike in Sharbazher district in Sulaymaniyah in the Kurdish region of Iraq. The drone targeted a vehicle carrying PKK fighters near the village of Rangina, it said. Also Friday, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which controls much of northeast Syria, said in a statement that four of its fighters were killed by a Turkish drone attack on the village of Khirbet Khwei in the Amuda region. The statement accused Turkey of "aiming at undermining security and stability in the region."There was no immediate comment from Turkey on the strikes.
The violence was the latest in a monthslong escalation between Turkey and Turkish-backed groups and Kurdish fighters in Syria and Iraq. Turkey has spent years fighting Kurdish militants in its east and large Kurdish communities live in neighboring Iraq and Syria, where they have a degree of self-rule. Turkey considers the main Kurdish militia in northeast Syria an ally of the outlawed PKK. The PKK has for decades waged an insurgency within Turkey. Turkish strikes in northern Iraq have been a sore point with the Iraqi government, which has condemned them as a violation of its sovereignty.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to visit Iraq in the near future, where the PKK activities and Turkish strikes in the Kurdish region are likely to be points of discussion.

Massive Fire Incident Causes Nationwide Power Outage in Iraq
LBCI/July 29, 2023
The Saturday fire incident at a power station caused a complete power outage across Iraq, as the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity reported. The ministry stated that efforts are underway to restore electricity within the coming hours amid a significant temperature rise. The electricity issue is a sensitive matter in Iraq, where the population of 43 million people experiences daily and recurrent power outages that can last up to ten hours. The situation worsens during summer, with temperatures soaring up to fifty degrees Celsius. According to a statement issued by the ministry, the electrical system experienced a complete shutdown today, Saturday, due to a fire accident at the Al-Bakr substation in Basra Governorate. The spokesperson of the Ministry of Electricity, Ahmed Moussa, confirmed to AFP that the outage affected the entire country. The statement further explained that the fire led to the disruption of power transmission lines between the central and southern regions of the country, as well as the disconnection of generating units at production stations.

Gantz Warns Netanyahu Against Ignoring Supreme Court Decisions
Asharq Al Awsat/29 July 2023
The head of Israel’s “State Camp,” Benny Gantz, cautioned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday against disregarding the anticipated rulings of the Israeli Supreme Court regarding the appeal presented to it concerning the amendment recently passed by the Knesset. The amendment aims to abolish the “reasonability clause” from the judicial system. Gantz stated that if Netanyahu ignores the Supreme Court’s decisions, it will mean he is denying himself the legitimacy to remain in his position as Prime Minister. He further emphasized that in any democratic country, a Prime Minister should respect the court’s rulings and act accordingly, regardless of any disagreements. Gantz argued that if Netanyahu, like any other elected official, does not adhere to the court's ruling, it would amount to a coup that could fundamentally alter Israel’s system, consequently invalidating his legitimacy to stay in office. This response from Gantz came as a rebuttal to Netanyahu’s evasion of a question during an interview with CNN about whether he commits to respecting the expected court decision on abolishing the “reasonability clause.” Netanyahu refused to abide by the Supreme Court’s ruling if the “reasonability clause” law is canceled, expressing his hope that it would not come to that. The Israeli Supreme Court has announced that it will hold hearings against the government’s amendment in September, after the summer parliamentary break. Meanwhile, protests in Israel continued in opposition to the judicial amendments. Thousands of protesters gathered on Thursday night in Tel Aviv to voice their dissent against what they perceive as a “threat to democracy.” These protests are expected to persist without interruption. The Israeli police are preparing for potential escalation and are considering using crowd-dispersal measures, including tear gas. For the first time since the protests began, the police have decided to elevate the level of measures available to officers in Tel Aviv for handling demonstrators. In a statement, the police made it clear that there will be “zero tolerance” for protesters engaging in violence towards law enforcement officers.

RSF Leader Hemedti Calls for Replacement of Sudan’s Army Leadership
Asharq Al Awsat/July 29/2023
Sudanese paramilitary leader General Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, known as Hemedti, called for the replacement of army leadership on Friday in his first on-camera appearance since fighting broke out. The fighting, broke out in April as the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) vied for power amid a planned transition towards civilian rule, has led to the displacement of more than 3 million people and thrown the country into one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. At least 580 civilians have been killed just in Khartoum, the capital, according to local volunteers, a Reuters tally found. The video of Hemedti was posted to the paramilitary group's Facebook page showing him surrounded by cheering members of the RSF, as he apologized to the Sudanese people for the impact of the ongoing conflict. "We tell our brothers in the armed forces, if you want a quick solution ... change your leadership and we'll come to an agreement in 72 hours." Hemedti also warned that Ahmed Haroun, an ex-official under former President Omar al-Bashir who escaped from prison in late April, was leading the security committee in eastern parts of the country where the army is in control. In previous audio messages, Hemedti has accused the army of taking orders from loyalists of the former president, who was in power for almost three decades.

Sudan’s official death toll described as ‘tip of iceberg’
Arab News/July 29/2023
JEDDAH: A tally of death figures recorded by local activists and volunteer groups indicates that the civilian death toll in Khartoum State may be more than double the official count, underscoring the devastating impact of the more than 100-day long war on the Sudanese people.
In early May, a loud explosion rocked Shambat, a neighborhood to the north of Sudan’s capital of Khartoum. Locals rushed to douse the flames devouring a makeshift dwelling that they say was ignited in an airstrike. They were too late. Amid the smoldering debris, according to five witnesses, were the charred bodies of a pregnant woman, a man and five children. Following the May 7 attack, the woman and children were buried at the site and the man at a nearby cemetery, two of the witnesses said. The seven victims of the Shambat strike share something in common with many of the fatalities in the war that has ravaged Sudan since mid-April: They are not included in the official death count in Khartoum State, which has seen most of the fighting between the Sudanese Army and the country’s main paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces. With the conflict having shattered local health and government services, the entities that would usually register fatalities are largely disabled. A Health Ministry report circulated to aid agencies and put the death toll in Khartoum State at 234 people as of July 5. The report specifies that the data is collected only from civilian hospitals. But across Khartoum State, which includes the capital and its sister cities Omdurman and Bahri, activist and volunteer groups have recorded at least 580 civilian deaths through July 26 as a result of airstrikes, artillery and gunfire. The disparity in the figures for Khartoum State suggests that the official nationwide death toll, which the Health Ministry puts at 1,136 people as of July 5, may also be an undercount. A ministry official said the official figure was “the tip of the iceberg.”That’s because many civilians have died in their neighborhoods or at home — not in hospital — so their deaths wouldn’t have been recorded, he said. Sudanese paramilitary leader Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, called for the replacement of army leadership in his first on-camera appearance since fighting broke out. The video of Hemedti was posted to the paramilitary group’s Facebook page showing him surrounded by cheering members of the RSF, as he apologized to the Sudanese people for the impact of the ongoing conflict. “We tell our brothers in the armed forces, if you want a quick solution … change your leadership and we’ll come to an agreement in 72 hours.”

US pledges to help Australia manufacture guided missiles by 2025
CANBERRA, Australia (AP)/Sat, July 29, 2023
The United States will expand its military industrial base by helping Australia manufacture guided missiles and rockets for both countries within two years, the allies announced on Saturday as they ramped up defense cooperation to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific.
The new cooperation on guided weapon production follows a trilateral partnership announcement in March that will see Britain provide Australia with a fleet of eight submarines powered by U.S. nuclear technology. The greater integration of U.S. and Australian militaries was announced after annual talks between U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken and their Australian counterparts, Defense Minister Richard Marles and Foreign Minister Penny Wong. They agreed to cooperate on Australia producing Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems by 2025, a communique said. U.S. companies Raytheon and Lockheed Martin only established an Australian enterprise to build such weapons last year. That followed the drain on Western countries' munitions caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Austin said the move on missiles would strengthen the two allies’ defense industrial base and technological edge. “We’re racing to accelerate Australia’s priority access to munitions through a streamlined acquisition process,” Austin told reporters in Brisbane, Australia. Marles welcomed U.S. support to achieve Australian missile production within two years. “We are really pleased with the steps that we are taking in respect of establishing a guided weapons and explosive ordnance enterprise in this country,” Marles said. The two governments also agreed to upgrade joint military facilities in Australia and to increase U.S. nuclear submarine visits as the United States increases its focus on the South Pacific. The region came to the forefront of the U.S. competition with China for influence last year, when Beijing signed a security pact with Solomon Islands and raised the prospect of a Chinese naval base being established there. Austin became the first U.S. defense secretary to visit Papua New Guinea and Blinken visited New Zealand and Tonga before they arrived in Australia. Saturday’s meeting was overshadowed by the loss of an Australian Army helicopter with four air crew late Friday, during military exercises with the U.S. off the northeastern coast of Australia. U.S., Australian and Canadian militaries are taking part in the search for potential survivors near Whitsunday Islands off the Queensland state coast. Austin and Marles will travel to north Queensland on Sunday to inspect Talisman Sabre, a biennial military exercise between the two countries that this year includes 13 nations and more than 30,000 military personnel.

Putin says Russia does not reject talks with Ukraine
Reuters/July 29, 2023
SAINT PETERSBURG: Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Saturday that Russia did not reject talks on Ukraine and that an African peace initiative as well as a Chinese one could be a basis for peace. He was speaking at a press conference after meeting African leaders in St. Petersburg on Friday. He also said that it was hard to implement a cease-fire when the Ukrainian army was on the offensive.

Moscow blames Kyiv for attacks in south Russia as its forces hit Ukrainian buildings
Associated Press/July 29, 2023
Russian forces have struck the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro and pounded a key village in the southeast that Ukraine claimed to have recaptured in its grinding counteroffensive, while Moscow accused Kyiv of firing two missiles at southern Russia and wounding 20 people.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, meanwhile, marked Ukraine's Statehood Day by reaffirming the country's sovereignty — a rebuke to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who used his claim that Ukraine didn't exist as a nation to justify his invasion.
"Now, like more than a thousand years ago, our civilizational choice is unity with the world," Zelenskyy said in a speech on a square outside St. Michael's Monastery in Kyiv. "To be a power in world history. To have the right to its national history -– of its people, its land, its state. And of our children -– all future generations of the Ukrainian people. We will definitely win!"
He also honored servicemen and handed out first passports to young citizens as part of ceremonies. The holiday coincides with commemorations of the adoption of Christianity on lands that later became Ukraine, Russia and Belarus.
The Russian Defense Ministry said it shot down a Ukrainian missile in the city of Taganrog, about 40 kilometers (about 24 miles) east of the border with Ukraine, and local officials reported 20 people were injured, identifying the epicenter as an art museum. Debris fell on the city, the ministry added, alleging the missile was part of a "terror attack" by Ukraine. Oleksiy Danilov, Ukraine's secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, blamed Russian air defense systems for the explosion. Russia's Defense Ministry said it downed a second Ukrainian missile near the city of Azov, which like Taganrog is in the Rostov region, and debris fell in an unpopulated location. Earlier in the day, a Ukrainian drone was shot down outside Moscow, the Defense Ministry said, in the third drone strike or attempt on the capital region this month. The ministry reported no injuries or damage in the latest incident, and it didn't give an exact location where the drone fell. Since the war began, Russia has blamed Ukraine for drone, bomb and missile attacks on its territory far from the battlefield's front line. Ukrainian officials rarely confirm being behind the attacks, which have included drone strikes on the Kremlin that unsettled Russians. The strikes have hit Russian ammunition and fuel depots, as well as bridges the Russian military uses to supply its forces, and military recruitment stations. The attacks have also included killings of Russian-appointed officials on occupied Ukrainian territory. Three months ago, a Russian warplane accidentally dropped a bomb on Belgorod, injuring two people, in an incident where Ukraine was initially suspected. In Dnipro, an apparent Russian missile attack wounded nine people in the area of a newly constructed and as yet unoccupied 12-story apartment building, as well as an unoccupied adjacent Security Service of Ukraine building. "Russian missile terror again," Zelenskyy wrote on social media.
Video showed the apartment building's upper floors in ruins, with gray smoke billowing from them, and flames raging in the night at ground level, where shattered concrete and glass littered a courtyard. Russia has often struck apartment buildings during the conflict, while denying it intentionally targets civilians.
Meanwhile, the commander of Ukraine's armed forces, Col.-Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, said his troops were pushing forward in parts of eastern Ukraine occupied by Russia and meeting stiff resistance as the war drags into its 18th month.
"The enemy fiercely clings to every centimeter, conducting intense artillery and mortar fire," he said in a statement. Recent fighting has taken place at multiple places along the more than 1,000-kilometer (more than 600-mile) front, where Ukraine deployed its recently acquired Western weapons to push out the Kremlin's forces. However, it is attacking without vital air support and faces a deeply entrenched foe.
A Western official said Thursday that Ukraine had launched a major push in the southeast. Putin acknowledged that fighting has intensified there, but insisted Kyiv's push has failed. Zelenskyy posted a video Thursday night in which Ukrainian soldiers said they had taken Staromaiorske in the Donetsk region. Russian military bloggers said artillery fire at the Ukrainian troops had effectively razed the village and reported more barrages Friday. Capturing the village, which in 2014 had a population of 682, would give Ukraine a platform to push deeper into Russian-held territory, the bloggers noted. The area has been a focus of Ukraine's counteroffensive since June, and its troops have previously captured several other villages there as they slowly work their way across extensive Russian minefields. It was not possible to verify either side's claims about what is happening in the war zone. Syrskyi said fighting that targets the enemy's artillery as well as its command and control structure is a priority as his troops probe Russian lines for weaknesses. "In these conditions, it is crucial to make timely management decisions in response to the situation at hand and take measures for maneuvering forces and resources, shifting units and troops to areas where success is evident, or withdrawing them from the enemy's fire," he said. Russia is trying to hold on to the territory it controls in the four provinces it illegally annexed in September -- Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Kherson and Luhansk.

Putin woos African leaders at a summit in Russia with promises of expanding trade and other ties
Associated Press/July 29, 2023
Russian President Vladimir Putin has courted leaders from Africa at a summit, hailing the continent's growing role in global affairs and offering to expand political and business ties. Addressing the Russia-Africa summit for a second day, Putin said Moscow would closely analyze a peace proposal for Ukraine that African leaders have sought to pursue. "This is an acute issue, and we aren't evading its consideration," the Russian leader said, emphasizing that his government was treating the African initiative with respect and "looking at it attentively."He encouraged the African leaders to talk to Ukraine, which has refused to engage in talks until Russian troops pull back. "I believe it's necessary to also talk to the other side, although we are grateful to our African friends for their attention to the issue," Putin said at the St. Petersburg summit.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said African leaders were looking forward to engaging further with Putin later Friday on their peace proposal.
"It is our hope that constructive engagement and negotiation can bring about an end to the ongoing conflict," Ramaphosa, who leads sub-Saharan Africa's most developed country, said, adding in South Africa, "our own history has taught us that this is indeed possible."Without specifically mentioning the fighting in Ukraine, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni denounced those who foment ideologically-driven military conflicts as "time and opportunity wasters," adding that "human history will move on, whether they like it or not." "The only justified wars are the just wars, like the anti-colonial wars," Museveni said. "Wars of hegemony will fail and waste time and opportunity. Dialogue is the correct way." In the public portion of a late night meeting Friday about the peace proposal, Putin repeated to the African leaders his explanations for the conflict's origins and Russia's actions in it, without giving any specific reaction to their suggestions. The African leaders said they expected to hear Putin's detailed reactions in a subsequent closed part of the meeting. In his speech, Putin reaffirmed his pledge that Russia will maintain steady supplies of grain and other agricultural products to the continent after its withdrawal from a deal allowing grain shipments from Ukraine. Moscow's withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative has fueled concerns of a global food crisis.
"Russia will always be a responsible international supplier of agricultural products and will continue to support the countries and region in need by offering free grain and other supplies," the Russian leader said. He declared at the summit's opening Thursday that Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, Eritrea and Central African Republic each will receive 25,000 to 50,000 tons of Russian grain in the next three to four months. In comparison, the U.N. World Food Program shipped 725,000 tons of grain to several countries, including Somalia, under the Black Sea deal. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres responded to Putin's pledge of no-cost grain shipments by noting that such donations of grain can't compensate for the impact of Moscow cutting off grain exports from Ukraine, which along with Russia is a top supplier to the world market. Guterres said the U.N. was in contact with Turkey, Ukraine, Russia and other countries to try to reestablish the year-old agreement, under which Ukraine exported more than 32 million tons of grain. The resumption of shipments from Ukraine's Black Sea ports allowed global food prices to drop significantly from the levels they reached after Putin sent troops into the neighboring country.
The deal brokered a year ago by the U.N. and Turkey reopened Ukrainian Black Sea ports blocked by fighting and provided assurances that ships entering them wouldn't be attacked. Russia declined to renew the agreement last week, complaining that its own exports were being held up.
Putin used the summit to repeat his accusations against the West of obstructing the export of Russian grain and fertilizers, including proposed no-cost supplies of fertilizers to Africa. The Russia-Africa summit marks a renewed Kremlin effort to bolster ties with a continent of 1.3 billion people that is increasingly assertive on the global stage. Africa's 54 nations make up the largest voting bloc at the United Nations and have been more divided than any other region on General Assembly resolutions criticizing Russia's actions in Ukraine.
Only 17 heads of state were at the summit, compared to 43 at the first Russia-Africa summit in 2019, a sharp drop in attendance that the Kremlin has attributed to what it described as "outrageous" Western pressure to discourage African countries from showing up. Putin hailed Africa's role in the emerging "multipolar world order," noting that "the era of hegemony of one or several countries is receding into the past, albeit not without resistance on the part of those who got used to their own uniqueness and monopoly in global affairs." "Russia and Africa are united by an innate desire to defend true sovereignty and the right to their own distinctive path of development in the political, economic, social, cultural and other spheres," he said. He said Russia plans to expand trade and economic ties with Africa and continue efforts to relieve their debt burden by writing off another $90 million of their debts. Putin noted that Moscow also stands ready to bolster defense ties with African countries by helping train their military and expanding supplies of military equipment, some of them on a no-cost basis.

Putin is becoming the problem that Russia needs to solve - but the West must hold its nerve
Sky News/July 29, 2023
While pressure builds on President Zelenskyy to deliver some form of progress with the Ukrainian offensive, he is not the only leader under pressure. Away from the battlefields, there is growing evidence that President Putin's authority and support base is waning as cracks start to form in the foundations of his regime. Is there a whiff of blood in the air around Moscow, and will Putin's evident troubles provide Ukraine (and the international community) the opportunity to capitalise?
Ukraine war - live updates
Although Putin would have felt emboldened by Russia's relatively simple success in annexing Crimea in 2014, he could never have imagined that, nearly 18 months into his invasion of Ukraine, Russia could have become embroiled in such an attritional and damaging conflict. Putin's ambitions to halt the expansion of NATO, restore Russian "greatness", and grow the Russian economy, have all failed to materialise. Instead, NATO has expanded, Russia has become a pariah on the global stage, and its economy is suffering under a mass of Western sanctions.
Although the Russian population is fed a Kremlin-controlled diet of Russia-friendly news, the Russian elite - whose support Putin requires - are feeling the growing impact of the sanctions. Oil and gas revenues remain strong, but with over one million fighting-age Russian males having fled to avoid conscription, the Russian economy is contracting. And the elite will also be aware that Putin's indictment by the International Criminal Court will have enduing impacts on Russia's ability to recover once the conflict is over. Putin is rapidly becoming the problem that Russia needs to solve. Following Yevgeny Prigozhin's abortive coup attempt, Putin will be concerned at the apparent ease with which he was able to advance on Moscow. Did he act alone or were his actions a barometer of wide discontent?
Authoritarian leaders generally do not enjoy a comfortable retirement - they usually suffer a swift and often brutal end as a successor sweeps to power. But, Putin cannot afford a widespread purge for fear of fanning the flames of a further coup, leaving him struggling to know who he can trust. Russia's limited military successes to date have been delivered by the Wagner mercenaries, but they can no longer be trusted by Putin. Russia is on the back foot in Ukraine, but Putin will also need to bolster his domestic security, and retaining his grip on power will be a priority.
This all places increasing pressure on his limited military resources, forcing compromise and prioritisation, all of which risks diluting military forces in Ukraine.
A way out - with losing face
At the start of the war Putin probably felt that time was on Russia's side - the longer the war continued the greater the chance that Western unity and resolve would dissipate. However, now time appears to favour Ukraine - Russia continues to lose ground in Ukraine and Putin probably needs to find a way out of the conflict, without losing face, to consolidate his loosening grip on power. That might go some way to explaining why he has pulled out of the Black Sea grain deal and targeted Ukrainian grain - in direct contravention of the Geneva Convention and international law. By reducing the global supply of grain, Putin has driven up prices: this will not hurt the West but will increase Russian profits as the world's leading exporter of grain. However, it might also prompt the global community to find a way to avert a global famine disaster and bring international pressure to bear on both sides in the conflict to negotiate. Putin would probably be wary of proactively calling for a ceasefire - he would be seen as doing so from a position of weakness. However, if the international community obliged him to negotiate, he could exploit the opportunity to conclude the war in Ukraine, perhaps retain Crimea and elements of the Donbas, cede the land bridge, and thus declare victory in his "special military operation" - at least to a domestic audience.A pyrrhic victory from the West's perspective, but a lifeline perhaps for a beleaguered Putin.

Blinken Indicates Progress Towards Establishing Peacekeeping Force in Haiti
LBCI/July 29, 2023
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke on Saturday about progress towards establishing a multinational peacekeeping force in Haiti, which faces security disruptions and an escalation of violence perpetrated by gangs.
"Our focus is on trying to provide the necessary requirements for establishing a multinational force, including finding a country to lead this effort," the US Secretary stated. Blinken anticipated that there would be an announcement of some significant progress very soon.

Nine people were killed in an explosion at a fireworks warehouse in Thailand
LBCI/July 29, 2023
Nine people were killed, and over a hundred others were injured in an explosion at a fireworks warehouse in Thailand on Saturday, according to a senior official from Agence France-Presse. The explosion, which occurred in the town of Sungai Kolok in the southern province of Narathiwat, is believed to have been caused by a welding operation during construction work at the building. Narathiwat Governor Sanan Boonkasorn told Agence France-Presse, "A warehouse storing fireworks in Sungai Kolok exploded this afternoon (Saturday), and the latest toll indicates nine people killed and 115 others injured."
He added, "The fire is now under control. Preliminary investigations suggest that the cause was a technical error during a steel welding operation, as the building was still under construction."

African Union Gives 15-Day Ultimatum to Niger Junta to End Regime but Soldiers Seek Continuity
Reuters/29 July 2023
The African Union has issued a 15-day ultimatum to the junta in Niger to reinstall the country’s democratically elected government just as the coup leaders met with senior civil servants to discuss how they would run the country and as the US and the European Union threatened sanctions against the regime.
Brig. Gen. Mohamed Toumba, one of the soldiers who ousted President Mohamed Bazoum on Wednesday, told state television that the junta met with civil servants on Friday and asked them to continue their work as usual following the suspension of the constitution. “The message given was not to stop the processes underway, to keep on with things,” said Brig. Gen. Toumba. “Everything that must be done will be done,” he said, signaling the intention of the regime led by Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, who also goes by Omar, to remain in power.
After its meeting on Friday, the African Union Peace and Security Council said it was concerned by the “alarming resurgence” of coups that undermine democracy and stability on the continent. It asked the soldiers to “return immediately and unconditionally to their barracks and restore constitutional authority, within a maximum of fifteen (15) days.”Bazoum, whose condition and that of his officials remains unknown since the government was overthrown, should also be released immediately and unconditionally, the AU said. Failure to do so would compel the bloc to take “necessary action, including punitive measures against the perpetrators.”On the streets of the Nigerien capital Niamey on Saturday, things appeared to be returning to normal, though many in the international community were still on lockdown with hotels full of foreigners, many given instructions not to leave. Locals say they're waiting to see what unfolds, with many still in support of Bazoum who has not yet resigned. “I’m with him, he does a good work. (But) what can we do?” said Mohamed Cisse, a street seller. “This is (the new leader's) time, Bazoum’s time is over,” he said.
Tchiani, the junta leader and commander of Niger's presidential guard, is close to former Nigerien president Mahamadou Issoufou, who stepped down in 2021 after a decade in office. Tchiani's takeover of power will reinforce speculation that Issoufou is behind the coup, said Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, a German think tank and consultancy. The US threatened to halt its economic support to Niger while the European Union announced the immediate indefinite suspension of budgetary support and security assistance. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who is in Australia as part of a Pacific tour, estimated America's economic and security partnership with Niger at hundreds of millions of dollars and said its continuity depends on “the continuation of the democratic governance and constitutional order.”
“So that assistance, that support, is in clear jeopardy as a result of these actions, which is another reason why they need to be immediately reversed,” Blinken said. While there are no signs of the junta backing down amid growing international pressure, analysts called for synergy in the interventions of the international community and continental organizations such as the AU and the regional bloc of ECOWAS, which is scheduled to meet over the coup on Sunday. A successful coup in Niger and the sanctions in the aftermath could cause more hardship for millions of poor and hungry people in West Africa and could further threaten international relations with the region, which is seeing a resurgence of coups in recent years, according to Idayat Hassan, senior Africa program fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “A non-reversal of the coup also means that we are defining a new world order in West Africa in particular as you are pitching the west and other countries against few military regimes which may be backed by Russia,” said Hassan.

Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 29-30/2023
Biden's Legacy: The Axis of Tyrannies/A New World Order Dominated by China, Russia and the Iranian Regime, with North Korea Heading Up the Rear
Majid Rafizadeh/ Gatestone Institute/July 29, 2023
[T]he weak and possibly compromised administration of U.S. President Joe Biden appears to have enabled and empowered the autocrats of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, all of whom seem to be working overtime to create a new authoritarian world order with themselves at the helm.
Iran, which has already declared a new world order, is, even beyond its accelerating nuclear weapons program, swiftly trying to reshape the world militarily and geopolitically wherever Western nations appear to be losing power. The Iranian regime also appears to be wasting no time indoctrinating it citizens with anti-Western and anti-American points of view.
Since the Biden Administration assumed office in 2021, its vacuum of leadership in the Middle East has led to the increasing influence of China and Iran in the region; the decision by the Gulf nations to dodge the US and tilt towards China, and even to the China-brokered deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran that further sidelines the U.S.
"The Chinese have a strategy they've been following. We kind of wander around from day to day." – Former National Security Adviser John R. Bolton, WABC 770 radio, March 12, 2023.
In November 2022, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed, "Death to America will happen. In the new order I am talking about America will no longer have any important role." The Iranian regime, now that it is aligned with Putin's Russia and the Chinese Communist Party, would probably be delighted to conquer the US.
As the Biden Administration has unfortunately created a leadership vacuum throughout the world, its apparent risk-paralysis and feeble leadership seem quickly to be leading to a new world order led by the Axis of Tyrannies: China, Russia and Iran, with North Korea heading up the rear.
The weak and possibly compromised administration of U.S. President Joe Biden appears to have enabled and empowered the autocrats of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, all of whom seem to be working overtime to create a new authoritarian world order with themselves at the helm. Pictured: Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation leaders' summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan on September 15, 2022. (Photo by Alexandr Demyanchuk/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images)
"The greatest of all evils is a weak government," said Benjamin Disraeli, Prime Minister of the UK (1868, 1874-80)." This comment sadly brings us to the weak and possibly compromised administration of U.S. President Joe Biden, which appears to have enabled and empowered the autocrats of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, all of whom seem to be working overtime to create a new authoritarian world order with themselves at the helm.
Iran, which has already declared a new world order, is, even beyond its accelerating nuclear weapons program, swiftly trying to reshape the world militarily and geopolitically wherever Western nations appear to be losing power (here, here and here). The Iranian regime also appears to be wasting no time indoctrinating it citizens with anti-Western and anti-American points of view.
"Biden has been the weakest president in modern history," stated former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, also one of the current Republican presidential candidates.
"Under his administration, we've had a disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal, an unprecedented border crisis, the worst inflation in 40 years, and an emboldened enemy in China. It's time to retire Joe Biden and make America strong and proud again."
Since the Biden Administration assumed office in 2021, the leadership vacuum it left in the Middle East has led to the increasing influence of China and Iran in the region; the decision by the Gulf nations to dodge the US and tilt towards China, and even to the China-brokered deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran that further sidelines the U.S.
"We're sitting still, and the Chinese, the Russians, Iran, North Korea, and several others, are moving to shore up their relations and threaten us in a lot of different places," former US National Security Advisor John Bolton recently said.
"It's an indication that the Saudis and others are trying to hedge their bets with China and Russia, because they don't think the United States has the resolve and the fortitude necessary to do what they need to do to protect the world against Iran and its intentions. The Chinese have a strategy they've been following. We kind of wander around from day to day."
During the Trump administration, thanks to a policy of "maximum pressure," Iran was going through its worst economic crisis in 40 years . Although still reportedly being crushed by its own corruption and mismanagement, under the Biden administration, Iran's ruling mullahs are freely selling oil and violating sanctions with impunity. The US sanctions are no longer hurting Iran's economy or cutting off the flow of funds to Tehran.
Iran is currently producing more oil and selling it at levels close to the pre-sanctions era to countries such as China, which desperately needs more oil. Meanwhile the Biden Administration, in its first week in office, suspended new oil and gas leases on US public land, thereby enabling countries hostile to the U.S. such as China, Russia and Venezuela to enjoy an economic bonanza that may well have included enabling Russia to invade Ukraine.
With total disregard to the Biden Administration, the ruling mullahs of Iran have continued rapidly to advance their nuclear program to the place where they now reportedly have enough enriched uranium to manufacture five nuclear bombs. "Make no mistake, Iran will not be satisfied by a single nuclear bomb," Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said recently.
"So far, Iran has gained material enriched to 20% and 60% for five nuclear bombs... Iranian progress, and enrichment to 90%, would be a grave mistake on Iran's part, and could ignite the region."
In November 2022, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed:
"Death to America will happen. In the new order I am talking about America will no longer have any important role."
The Iranian regime, now that it is aligned with Putin's Russia and the Chinese Communist Party, would probably be delighted to conquer the US.
China, North Korea and Russia have also been building up their nuclear weapons. China may have even surpassed the United States in the number of nuclear warheads on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). On February 21, 2023, the U.S. Strategic Command informed Congress that China now has more ICBM launchers than the U.S.
In January 2023, North Korean ruler Kim Jong Un ordered his country to carry out an "exponential" expansion of its nuclear arsenal as well as the manufacture of a more powerful ICBM. Russia has also been upgrading and expanding its nuclear arsenal.
As the Biden Administration has unfortunately created a leadership vacuum throughout the world, its apparent risk-paralysis and feeble leadership seem quickly to be leading to a new world order led by the Axis of Tyrannies: China, Russia and Iran, with North Korea heading up the rear.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

India serves its national interest through strategic autonomy
Talmiz Ahmad/Arab News/July 29, 2023
At the end of June, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi returned home from a visit to the US that had included all the pomp and pageantry of a high-profile state visit. A joint statement described the two countries “as among the closest partners in the world.” The statement also reiterated the two countries’ commitment to the four-member maritime grouping known as the Quad, which has “paved the way for stronger collaboration in the Indo-Pacific region.”
Within two weeks of his return, Modi presided over the 23rd (virtual) summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which has as its members China, Russia, Iran, India, Pakistan and four Central Asian Republics. Critics have seen it as an anti-West conclave, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov described it as “forming a fundamentally new model of geopolitical integration.” Both Russia and China have been harsh critics of the Quad.
Where does India belong? An eminent Indian writer has said that “China’s rise … has made a strong India-US partnership a veritable necessity,” while an American observer has noted the “dreamy hope of Washington” that India could be tempted to give up its strategic autonomy in favor of a Western embrace. Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has robustly entered the discussion by pointing out that India “cannot be tied down to exclusive relationships.”
Indian critics believe that SCO membership does not fit in with the country’s close ties with major Western nations. But this carries little weight with the Modi government. At the SCO summit, Modi noted that the grouping “has emerged as an important platform for peace, prosperity and development of Eurasia.”
This assertion affirms the importance India attaches to its ties with the Central Asian republics and the strategic value it sees in the connectivity projects from Indian ports to the Iranian port of Chabahar and onward to Afghanistan and Central Asia, as well as the International North-South Transport Corridor that links India’s western coast to Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia.
Together, the SCO’s members make up 40 percent of the world’s population, 25 percent of global output, a quarter of the world’s oil reserves and 50 percent of global natural gas. The Central Asian republics are particularly rich in rare earth elements and metals, which are essential in the manufacture of processors and electronic components used in the defense and aerospace industries, nuclear plants, clean energy applications and medical appliances. India also attaches importance to the fact that many major Middle Eastern nations have become dialogue partners of the SCO, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Egypt and Turkiye, with all of which it has close political and economic relations.
The joint statement that emerged from the SCO summit reflected India’s interests. It spoke of realizing a “more representative, democratic, just and multipolar world order,” and called for “further improving and reforming the architecture of global economic governance,” both of which are priority concerns for India.
The Quad, which brings together the US, Japan, Australia and India, is a maritime entity that promotes “a free and open Indo-Pacific,” including freedom of navigation, territorial integrity and a stronger regional architecture. The grouping gained credibility and urgency in 2017, in response to what its members viewed as increasing Chinese moves to assert its maritime claims in the South and East China Seas, its expanding presence in the Indian Ocean, and the setting up of its base in Djibouti. It was elevated to ministerial level in September 2019 and to summit level in March 2021.
It makes little sense for India to tie itself to a single power with its own rapidly changing interests and priorities
However, at the September 2021 summit, members consciously moved away from the strident security agenda to matters of longer-term interest, such as health cooperation, science, technology, engineering and math fellowships, cybersecurity, green shipping, clean hydrogen, 5G deployment, and a semiconductor supply chain initiative. This perhaps reflected India’s interest in playing down the Quad as a grouping directed at China while the confrontation at the border was ongoing.
Despite US blandishments and the sharp rhetoric of the pro-US lobby, India’s leaders understand that the country’s national interest is best served through assertions of strategic autonomy. Thus, expanding defense ties with the US and other Western powers helps to upgrade India’s military capabilities, but it does not occur at the expense of India’s long-standing military ties with Russia, which provides India’s basic needs for weaponry, artillery, armor and aircraft.
India takes into account other considerations as well. The US also has global interests and responsibilities and its foreign policy approach changes frequently with new administrations and the efforts of its domestic lobbies and interests. Again, America’s approach to China combines both cooperation and competition. Both before and after Modi’s visit to the US, high-level American officials were in Beijing to recalibrate ties between the world’s two largest economies. Thus, it makes little sense for India to tie itself to a single power with its own rapidly changing interests and priorities.
Finally, joining a maritime security alliance directed at China would mean that China’s own maritime security strategy would necessarily include a hostile India in its calculus. This would make India China’s antagonist on land and sea — a situation that would provide no advantage to India.
For the foreseeable future, New Delhi may be expected to remain a member of several diverse groupings, in which India itself will set the terms of its membership and the nature and extent of its role in order to achieve the interests it wishes to obtain from each grouping.
• Talmiz Ahmad is a former Indian diplomat.

Is Saudi normalization with Israel possible?
Faisal J. Abbas/Arab News/July 29, 2023
Much has been said about the recent visit of US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan to Jeddah. According to US press reports, one of the topics on the table was the prospect of a US-brokered Saudi-Israeli normalization deal. Of course, there has been no official confirmation from the Kingdom. However, one has only to speculate, contextualize, and take recent developments into consideration to reach the conclusion that it is highly likely that such a deal might be possible.
Before I go on, allow me to shush conspiracy theorists who will jump to the conclusion that Saudi Arabia has “sold out” the Palestinian cause. They will argue that proof of this theory is that the discussions — if they occurred — happened in secret, which in itself is reason for them to believe that something dodgy was cooking. Well, with all due respect to the intellect — or, rather, the very little intellect — of those who propagate such views, the norm for any talks of this nature is that they happen in secret and are announced only when/if successful. Just ask the Palestinians, orwatch the film “Oslo.”
Second, Saudi Arabia is one of the few countries that actually practices what it preaches. Unlike Tehran, Riyadh’s position has never been ideological in the sense that we never preached — or to be more precise pretended to preach — throwing Jews into the sea (while secretly getting weapons from Israel during the war with Iraq, as Iran did in the 1980s). In fact, since the Madrid conference of 1991, Saudi Arabia has been at the forefront of trying to achieve a peace deal that puts Palestinian rights first, while at the same time offering Israel the recognition and guarantees it needs.
As a reminder, it was actually the late King Abdullah who offered Israel the Arab Peace Initiative adopted by the Arab League in 2002. More recently, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told the Atlantic magazine last year that the Kingdom sees Israel as “a potential ally.”
“We don’t look at Israel as an enemy; we look to them as a potential ally, with many interests that we can pursue together,” he said in remarks carried by the official Saudi Press Agency. “But we have to solve some issues before we get to that,” the crown prince added, saying that he hopes conflicts between Israelis and Palestinians will be resolved.
Third, comes the aspect of the additional Saudi demands that have been reported since late 2022. As mentioned in this column last March, a fair and just solution for Palestinians has always been the Kingdom’s first priority. However, let us suppose Israel takes serious and satisfactory steps toward a solution, and suddenly a Saudi-Israeli normalization and peace treaty becomes a potential reality. What, then, would the subsequent consequences be?
Saudi Arabia has been at the forefront of trying to achieve a peace deal that puts Palestinian rights first. If this is achieved, what, then, would the subsequent consequences be?
If such a treaty were signed, then the US should have no more concerns about a Saudi nuclear program (which was always meant to be peaceful anyway), nor should it have any reservations about putting its verbal commitments to protect the Kingdom in writing. Indeed, although Israel has never been a security threat to Saudi Arabia, a peace treaty with Israel would mean that the only real threat to the Kingdom would be from Iran and the Houthis. Given that the first refers to the US as the Great Satan, and the latter’s official slogan is “Death to America,” then the Biden administration should really have no reservations committing to a signed treaty with the Kingdom, be it in the form of a “major non-NATO ally” or something else. (This, of course, is assuming Iran doesn’t abide by the China brokered peace treaty with Riyadh).
In fact, apart from the deeply rooted, multifaceted 80-year relationship between the two countries, it makes perfect sense for the US to safeguard the oil wells from any attack that would cause a supply shortage, which would, in turn, ultimately cause a huge increase in price — something any junior economist would be able to point out to cynics.
Apart from that, this would be a huge foreign policy win for the highly criticized Biden administration before a crucial election year — although pushing such a decision for Congressional approval will require an enormous effort by the White House despite some bipartisan approval as demonstrated by Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham giving it a public endorsement last April.
Last but not least, this might be a much-needed double-edged instrument which could both rein in the far-right lunatics in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s current government, and also guarantee Palestinians a state, once and for all.
As our respected colleague Thomas Friedman eloquently wrote in The New York Times: “Netanyahu’s ruling coalition of Jewish supremacists and religious extremists would have to answer this question: You can annex the West Bank, or you can have peace with Saudi Arabia and the whole Muslim world, but you can’t have both, so which will it be?”
Once again, none of this is official, but even the prospect is a huge step forward for Palestinians, Israelis, and indeed for Saudi Arabia, which has embarked on a new, remarkable foreign policy that safeguards not only the huge prosperity Vision 2030 has achieved, but also aspires to be a force for good across the region and the world.
*Faisal J. Abbas is the editor in chief of Arab News. Twitter: @FaisalJAbbas
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point of view

How Russia is winning hearts and minds in Africa
Dr. Diana Galeeva/Arab News/July 29, 2023
The Russia-Africa summit held in St. Petersburg received considerable attention in the past week as Moscow sought to win hearts and minds on the African continent.
Anti-Western rhetoric, unsurprisingly, featured heavily in the key narratives. Only 17 African leaders attended this session compared with 43 at the 2019 summit in Sochi, a fact Russian presidential adviser Yuri Ushakov claimed was due to Western pressure on leaders to decline the invitation.
The central discourse in much Russian-state media has been the Western colonial past in African countries, and its damaging legacy, which has been set against Russian attempts to build a multipolar and thus more equal world system, with African countries as real partners.
Steve Rosenberg of BBC News, in his analysis ahead of the summit, reviewed Russian newspapers, including Izvestia, a fiercely pro-Kremlin broadsheet that published an opinion piece by Petr Tolstoi, the deputy Duma chairman, claiming “Western countries can’t seem to cure themselves of their colonial mentality which has developed over centuries.” Rosenberg concluded that one should “expect to hear Russian officials making this accusation a lot over the next two days because they know it plays well in parts of Africa.”
The concept of equal multipolarity is supported by many African leaders. In his opening remarks to the summit, Azali Assoumani, president of Comoros and head of the African Union, said: “The multipolar world of the 21st century cannot close on itself. That is why Africa wants to have a fair and mutually beneficial partnership with the whole world. It is obvious to us that Russia has a special place in partnership with us, and we are ready to work all over the world.”
If this means a reduced partnership with the West, what can Russia offer Africa? Moscow aims to build relations that either carry importance for the whole continent, at a bilateral level, or at a multinational level through organizations, such as the African Union. Food security is paramount for all of Africa, especially after Russia ended its participation in the Black Sea grain deal. The Russian government’s decision to offer free grain to six countries — Burkina Faso, Mali, Somalia, Zimbabwe, the Central African Republic and Eritrea — is a strategic move to win hearts and minds on the continent.
At a bilateral level, technology needs were among the strategic collaborations discussed. For example, Russia is ready to share with Africa its developed technologies in the field of extraction and sale of precious metals, according to Yulia Goncharenko, director of the Department of State Regulation of the Precious Metals and Precious Stones Industry of the Ministry of Finance.
Russia is also interested in further cooperation with African countries in the energy sector. Over many years, Soviet and Russian specialists have designed and built large energy centers in Angola, Egypt, Ethiopia and other countries on the continent, with a total capacity of 4.6 gigawatts, a quarter of Africa’s hydropower capacity. More than 30 promising energy projects with Russian participation in 16 African states are now in varying stages of development. Russian companies Gazprom, Rosneft, Lukoil and Zarubezhneft have been engaged in the development of oil and gas fields in Algeria, Egypt, Cameroon, Nigeria and the Republic of the Congo. Moscow aims to build relations that either carry importance for the whole continent, at a bilateral level, or at a multinational level through organizations, such as the African Union.
The impact of the Ukraine war also brings Russia closer to Africa in several economic and financial fields. Among the key discussions at the summit was the use of national currencies in trade deals, including the Russian ruble. In this regard, the New Development Bank, formerly known as the Brics Development Bank — which now includes Egypt, Bangladesh and the UAE, as well as regional development banks — supports the development initiatives of developing countries on all continents. Agreements have been made on the use of national currencies in trade transactions. “This is a strategic tool in finding a balance of power, and building a more just world and a new multipolar and multilateral world order,” Dilma Rousseff, the former Brazilian president and current head of the New Development Bank, said.
Another strategic direction shaped by geopolitics is Russia’s engagement in the reorientation of transport and logistics flows toward the states of the global south, including Africa. The International North-South Transport Corridor aims to provide access to areas ranging from the Gulf to the Indian Ocean, allowing Russian goods to reach Africa by the shortest sea route. Naturally, this corridor can also be used to supply African goods to the Russian market.
Finally, Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was spotted at the summit, which brings into view the question of security and Russia-Africa military relations. Before the summit, the Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta commented that “Wagner’s chief spheres of influence outside Syria and Ukraine are Libya, the Central African Republic, Sudan and Mali,” and added that “Wagner’s military resources in Africa are considerable.”
The Russian ambassador to the Central African Republic told the Russian state-owned domestic news agency RIA Novosti that 1,890 “Russian instructors” are supporting government troops in the civil war there, and added that it is thought that there are up to 1,200 mercenaries in Libya, while in Mali, the anti-Western junta has brought in several hundred Wagner fighters. The paper predicts that Wagner will focus now on Sudan, which “will play an important role in Russia’s new Africa strategy. If Prigozhin and his fighters can achieve success on this front, their next may be Eritrea.” This might bring broader predictions of Russia’s growing military role in Africa. Overall, the message from the summit was “From Russia with Love,” showing a Russia intent on a more equal and cooperative world compared with the persistent inequalities of Western relations. President Vladimir Putin’s warm welcoming of African leaders indicates how Russia is reshuffling its traditional allies, and clearly the African continent has highly strategic importance for Moscow in many fields. This policy will continue in at least the short and medium term, with instant impact gestures mixed with longer-term investment and interdependency. Much of the African continent seems to be happily accepting this message, allowing their hearts and minds to be swayed through the possibilities of economics, politics, military, and other geopolitical and strategic considerations.
• Dr. Diana Galeeva is a former academic visitor to St. Antony’s College, Oxford University (2019-2022).
Twitter: @Dr_GaleevaDiana

Iran: With Friends Like That
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/July 29/2023
The great Marx, Groucho not Karl, once said that he wouldn’t join a club that would have him as a member.
Iran’s rulers today face a different dilemma, trying to join clubs that wouldn’t have them as member. For weeks, Tehran propaganda harped on the theme of the Islamic Republic President Ayatollah Raisi travelling to South Africa to attend the annual summit of the BRICS group.
The Islamic Republic has been asking to be admitted into the cub since 2010 when the “Supreme Guide” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced his intention to create a “New World Order” through a triple alliance of Iran, China and Russia.
Tehran sources say the Iranian demand, though supported by South Africa and India, has been quietly vetoed by Russia and cold-shouldered by China.
The irony in that is that Khamenei’s senior foreign policy advisor Ali-Akbar Velayati, a leading Russophile, has on several occasions claimed that Russia would back Iran’s application for membership.
This year, the whole fantasy assumed a comical aspect when South Africa “advised” Russian President Vladimir Putin not to attend the summit on 23 and 24 August. The reason is that the International Criminal Court in The Hague has issued a red alert for Putin on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity. Russia hasn’t signed the treaty that created the court but South Africa has, and, as a result, would have had to arrest Putin on arrival. Putin will now attend the summit through a zoom connection, not exactly a strong position from which to recommend the Islamic Republic as a future member.
It is clear that Russia, even if it wanted which it does not, to help Iran join BRICS. But it could help the Islamic Republic join other clubs that Tehran thirsts to join. One such club is the Eurasian Economic Union which Moscow created in 2014 in the hope of reviving the Soviet Union at least on the economic front. The union consists of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia with China, Moldova and Uzbekistan as associate members. Tehran lodged its application for associate membership in 2016 as Ayatollah Khamenei preached his “looking to the East” strategy.
Again, according to sources within the Tehran regime, it is the Russian veto, never formally announced, that keeps the Islamic Republic out in the cold.
Last year, however, Russia removed its veto on Iranian membership of another club, The Shanghai Group, presumably because of Chinese “persuasion”. Having decided to invade and annex Ukraine, Putin also thought he would need Iranian support in the form of drones supplies and recruitment of Syrian and other mercenaries to fight on the Russian side. Even then, Iran had to wait one more hear under probation before entering the club whose precise aims remain unclear.
To make matters worse both China, through its President Xi Jinping, and Russia, via Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov have signed communiques that clearly question Iran’s territorial integrity, becoming the only two veto-holding members of the United Nations’ Security Council to do so.
Khamenei’s dream of a “New World Order” led by Iran, China and Russia, has proven to be a pipedream shaped in the mind of a leader that operates in a fantasy universe. In a series of speeches, the “Supreme Guide” has claimed that the “American Great Satan” has tried to make Iran like the rest of the Middle East while it is Iran that is making the rest of the Middle East like itself on the way to reshaping the world as a whole.
The pipedream was partly punctured last week when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made his first foreign visit after his election victory to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, ignoring Iran altogether.
According to Tehran sources, Ra’isi had to wait three days before he could arrange a phone call to Ankara to congratulate Erdogan on his re-election.
In the meantime, Tehran was announcing “significant diplomatic victories” not in Khamenei’s “Looking East” region by west, in African states of Kenya, Uganda and Zimbabwe. Chief among these victories was Uganda’s decision to lift visas for Iranian tourists, provided they can somehow get there.
For the first time Khamenei’s “Looking East” fantasy is openly questioned by regime insiders and commentators close to “deciders” in Tehran. A meeting of the so-called Strategy Council for foreign Policy earlier in the week, attended by five former foreign ministers and several other senior retired or semi-retired diplomats, mumbled criticism was heard of reliance on an imagined alliance with China and Russia. According to sources, one participant, thought to be former Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Salehi, reminded the audience that the late “Imam” Ruhollah Khomeini had preached a “neither East nor West” foreign policy.
Former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has also said that Russia has “stabbed us in the back” on a number of occasions and for years. Former head of the Islamic Majlis’s National Security Commission Heshmatallah Falahat-Pisheh has warned that both China and Russia have treated the Islamic Republic as nothing but a source of profit for themselves. Another Majlis member Masud Pezeshkian has called for a thorough review of the “Looking East” policy. A new political grouping known as Sherian, believed to be set up by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in view of next year’s general election, openly demands dropping the “Looking Est” slogan and returning to Khomeini’s “Neither East nor West”.
Former Oil Minister Bijan Zangeneh has warned that Russia, having pushed Iran out of the European oil market is now trying to do the same in the Indian and Chinese markets by offering mouth-watering discounts. Since last March, China’s oil imports from Iran have fallen by almost 40 percent, according to unofficial estimates, with Russia claiming the part that Iran has lost.
Meanwhile, what some Iranians see as an attack by Lavrov on the nation’s integrity, many are unhappy about Raisi’s refusal or inability to read the riot act to the Russians. The concern is that Tehran’s lack of reaction to the Russian and Chinese moves could encourage other nations to adopt a similar stance against Iran. Khamenei, aged 84, seems unlikely to abandon what he had hoped would be his “historic legacy” or, in his own words “driving the Great Satan and its allies out of the region.” This is perhaps why, as long as Khamenei is in charge, neither Beijing nor Moscow are worried about angering Iran, whatever they do.