Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 27-28/2023
Lebanon Spends Summer Without President...Autumn Set as Pivotal Deadline
Beirut : Thaer Abbas/Asharq Al Awsat/27 July 2023
Even though the message carried by the visit of the French presidential envoy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, was singular, the interpretations given by the Lebanese political forces varied to the point of contradiction.
This marks a fresh indication that Lebanese politicians have failed to reach an understanding, further prolonging the presidential power vacuum crisis in the country since the end of the former president Michel Aoun's term on November 1 of 2022. However, what remains constant in this visit is that it was exploratory, following a familiarization visit undertaken by Le Drian in June of last year.
The actual working visit is scheduled for September, effectively meaning an extension of the presidential power vacuum at least until that time.
In summary, as one of the key individuals involved in Le Drian’s visit put it, “Enjoy your summer, for there will be no president until the autumn.”
Following the remarks made by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Tuesday about “creating an opening in the wall of the presidential crisis,” the rest of those who met with Le Drian gradually tempered their optimism.
The French envoy came bearing two questions that he posed to the officials, as stated by a source who participated in the meeting between the head of the Lebanese Forces (LF) Samir Geagea and Le Drian.
The questions were as follows: Firstly, what is required of the next president? Secondly, what are the specifications, qualifications, and characteristics that this president must possess?
While the source refrained from mentioning “the mechanisms through which the answers will be obtained,” they affirmed that the French did not propose any comprehensive agreement, as they intend to grant the next president the freedom of action and not restrict them with prior commitments.
On the other hand, sources familiar with the meeting between head of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) Gebran Bassil and Le Drian provided more specific insights into the roadmap carried by the French envoy. These sources denied that Le Drian brought any proposal from Berri or others, indicating that he will visit Lebanon between September 15 and 17 for a brief two-day visit. During this time, he will engage in intense consultations with all parties, without confirming whether these meetings will lead to a comprehensive dialogue or be in the form of individual visits, as is happening currently. After these consultations, Le Drian is expected to issue a comprehensive and constructive statement based on the mandate from the five-member committee for Lebanon. This statement will serve as a roadmap for Lebanon in politics, economics, and finance. The responses received during those two days will then be used to put forward one or more candidates who can implement this program. Subsequently, the parliament will proceed to vote in consecutive sessions, and any deliberate absence by members to obstruct the quorum will be subject to sanctions imposed by the five countries involved. The source asserted that Lebanon is likely to elect a president in September. According to a French diplomatic source, the information circulating about the mechanisms “may not be precise in form, but more accurate in substance.”However, an LF source vehemently denied this information, asserting that Le Drian did not discuss similar mechanisms and clarified that Geagea promised to pose the two questions to both the party members and allies and consult with them before the French envoy’s return to Lebanon. On the other hand, the French source pledged to provide further clarifications in a statement to be issued at the end of Le Drian’s visit, outlining “the current and future moves of French diplomacy.”

Lebanon cabinet fails to select successor to central bank head as vacuum looms
Reuters/July 27, 2023
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s cabinet on Thursday failed to meet to choose a successor to long-time central bank governor Riad Salameh, meaning the bank could be leaderless from Monday as the country lurches toward a fifth year of financial turmoil. Salameh, 72, leaves office on Monday after 30 years as governor with Lebanon’s economy in tatters and facing charges of embezzling public funds, which he denies. The looming prospect of a leadership vacuum at the central bank raises fears of further state fragmentation, and reflects wider divisions that have also left the presidency vacant and the country without a fully empowered cabinet for over a year. Caretaker premier Najib Mikati and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri have led efforts to name a new governor. However, the powerful armed party Hezbollah and its Christian ally the Free Patriotic Movement have rejected the moves, saying a caretaker cabinet had no right to take that step. Thursday’s cabinet session was canceled minutes after it was set to start because there were not enough ministers to meet the quorum. “Today, we had an opportunity to temporarily address a file related to the financial and monetary situation. Unfortunately, the political calculations of the concerned parties within the government have priority over others, so let each party bear responsibility for its decision,” a statement by Mikati said. According to Lebanon’s code of money and credit, the first of four vice governors must take over when Salameh leaves office. But all four have threatened to resign if no successor is appointed, saying the crisis required a governor to lead.

French Envoy Le Drian Initiates Presidential Talks: Will He Break the Deadlock?
LBCI/July 27, 2023
From Ain El-Tineh and in Ain El-Tineh, French Presidential Envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian began and concluded his talks. The aim was to brief Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri on the outcomes of his three-day meetings in Beirut before returning to Paris. Sources from Ain El-Tineh revealed that these talks have opened a window of opportunity in the presidential elections dossier. Le Drian's journey also took him through Haret Hreik, where he met with the head of the Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc, MP Mohammad Raad. When asked by LBCI about his discussions with Lebanese officials, Le Drian evaded a direct answer. According to sources familiar with Le Drian's meeting with Raad, the French official presented the presidential initiative with authorization from the Quint committee countries, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United States, France, and Egypt. The scope of the meetings also included a meeting with the Secretary-General of the Tashnag Party, MP Hagop Pakradounian, and MPs Michel Doueihy and Waddah al-Saddek, who emphasized the necessity of conducting open and consecutive parliamentary sessions immediately. Other sources reported that Le Drian stated in front of the MPs he met on Wednesday evening that the forthcoming consultations in September are the last chance to elect a president for the republic. If they fail, the five countries will withdraw their involvement from the Lebanese file. However, other sources denied that Le Drian addressed this matter in their presence.
While it is true that Le Drian's meetings in Lebanon did not include the Maronite Patriarch, it is reported by LBCI that there will be a forthcoming meeting between the Patriarch and the French Ambassador, Anne Grillo. Throughout his visit, Le Drian remained silent. Still, the French embassy broke its silence and stated the purpose of his visit to Beirut. In detail, Le Drian proposed to all active parties in the presidential election process to convene in Lebanon in September to reach a consensus on the priorities and projects the future President of the Republic should work on. In conclusion, Le Drian proposed a new presidential initiative, and the countries of the Quint committee stood behind him. Will he succeed in resolving the Lebanese presidency deadlock?

Raad meets Le Drian
NNA/July 27, 2023
Head of the "Loyalty to Resistance" parliamentary bloc, MP Mohammad Raad, received at the bloc's headquarters in Haret Hreik on Thursday French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian.

Pakradounian meets Le Drian
NNA/July 27, 2023
Secretary General of the Tashnag Party, MP Hagop Pakradounian, on Thursday received French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian.
According to a statement by the Tashnag Party, talks touched on the general situation, particularly the presidential file. The statement added that the French envoy presented to his host his presidential initiative.

Sami Gemayel: No final response to Le Drian yet, awaiting consultation with opposition parties
Kataeb .org/July 27, 2023
Kataeb Leader Samy Gemayel affirmed that no final response has been given to French Envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian yet, as his party awaits consultation with other opposition parties. "If Hezbollah intends to reach a compromise, it must withdraw Sleiman Frangieh's nomination and participate in the dialogue," Gemayel said in an interview with Al Arabiya Al Hadath television. He concluded that the Kataeb party's priority is to prevent the dialogue from becoming a mechanism to impose the will of Hezbollah on the Lebanese people.

Opposition to hold talks prior to giving answer to Le Drian
Naharnet /July 27, 2023
The opposition camp will hold consultations prior to giving a final answer to French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian regarding his proposal for holding dialogue on September over the new president’s qualifications, Kataeb Party chief Sami Gemayel said. “The consultations will take place today or tomorrow and we will have a unified answer,” Gemayel told Al-Arabiya’s Al-Hadath television. “If Hezbollah has the intention to meet the other camp halfway, it must withdraw its candidate and meet us for dialogue,” Gemayel added. “What concerns is that dialogue should not turn into a mechanism to impose Hezbollah’s will on the rest of the Lebanese,” the Kataeb chief went on to say. Le Drian has proposed an idea backed by the five nations that had recently met in Doha, under which he would return in September to launch a dialogue over the next president’s program. The parties would then agree on the candidates who are eligible to implement the program after which they would hold successive parliamentary sessions to elect a president.

MPs Marc Daou, Michel Doueihi, and Waddah al-Saddek meet Le Drian
LBCI/July 27, 2023
MPs Marc Daou, Michel Doueihi, and Waddah al-Saddek announced that they met with French Presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian yesterday evening at the Pine Palace in the presence of the French Ambassador, Anne Grillo. In their statement, they mentioned that Le Drian explained the details of his new initiative regarding the presidential deadline during a lengthy meeting that lasted for more than two hours. This initiative is coordinated with the five countries (Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United States, and France).  Le Drian emphasized the content of the statement issued by its representatives during their last meeting in Doha, especially regarding the necessity of respecting the constitutional mechanisms for electing a president and the measures that the international community intends to impose on the obstructers. They stated that "Le Drian affirmed that this attempt is the only one undertaken by friends of Lebanon to find a way out of the crisis by inviting parliamentary blocs to a working meeting in September, focused on the presidential elections and specifically on the qualifications that the President of the Republic must possess and the tasks he will undertake during his tenure." As for their part, they emphasized their commitment to the constitutional mechanisms and their initial position based on the necessity of holding open and consecutive parliamentary sessions immediately, in accordance with the constitution. They informed Minister Le Drian of their support for the statement issued by the Doha Quintet meeting and the importance of the resolution by the European Parliament, which pointed out the parties responsible for obstruction and the continued presidential vacuum while expressing reservations about item 13 related to the refugee file. After an extensive discussion about the details of the initiative presented to them, they requested Minister Le Drian to consult with the rest of their colleagues and some parliamentary blocs and independents to reach a unified stance that serves the national interest, preserves the constitution, and allows the presidential deadline to be met. At the end of the meeting, they conveyed to the French envoy the aspirations of the Lebanese people to restore the state, achieve sovereignty and justice, and hold those responsible for the current situation accountable, as they have expressed since October 17, 2019. They also warned against betraying the Lebanese people by the international community and trivializing the path toward settlements that would turn back the clock and allow the political authority to exploit deliberate obstruction to renew itself.

September consultations: Possible breakthrough in Lebanon's impasse
Naharnet/July 27, 2023
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said Wednesday after meeting French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian in Maarab that the French diplomat did not discuss presidential names with him. "We did not discuss new names," Geagea said, stressing that the talks are confidential. Speaker Nabih Berri who had met Le Drian on Tuesday also did not disclose what was discussed but revealed that the meeting was "good" and that "an opening has pierced through" Lebanon's power vacuum, without elaborating, while the Free Patriotic Movement revealed in a statement Le Drian's proposal. "Le Drian would return in September to restart consultations in order to agree on a presidential program before agreeing on an eligible candidate," the FPM said, adding that "successive parliamentary sessions would follow." Bassil responded positively to the proposal, the statement said. Le Drian had earlier met with Kataeb party leader Sami Gemayel. The latter did not give a clear answer regarding September's consultations, as he preferred to agree with the opposition on a unified position.

No successor to Salameh: Cabinet session canceled due to lack of quorum
Agence France Presse/July 27, 2023
A cabinet session to appoint a new central bank governor was cancelled Thursday due to a lack of quorum. Only several ministers showed up at the Grand Serail and held a consultation meeting. "We had the opportunity today to temporarily address the financial and monetary files. It is regrettable that the parties represented in cabinet have other priorities," caretaker Prime Minister Najib said after the ministerial meeting. "Let each party bear the responsibility for its decision," he added. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri had urged Mikati to call for a Cabinet session to appoint a new Central Bank governor, as the governor's term ends this month with no successor in sight. Mikati met twice with vice-governors, Wassim Mansouri, Bashir Yakzan, Salim Chahine and Alexander Mouradian to convince them not to resign after they threatened that they would quit unless politicians swiftly name an incoming governor. The vice-governors have some demands and are asking for the government and parliament's support to continue their work. Lebanon's central bank governor is named by cabinet decree for a six-year mandate that can be renewed multiple times. If the position is vacant, the law stipulates that the first vice-governor take over. In case the vice governors decide to resign, they would act in caretaker capacity until the appointment of a new governor.

Salameh confirms departure, warns against stopping Sayrafa abruptly
Naharnet/July 27, 2023
Outgoing Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh has stressed that he will not stay in his post after his term expires on July 31, as he warned against abolishing the Sayarfa exchange platform in an abrupt manner. “I declared a year ago that this would be my last term at the Banque du Liban and in a few days I will turn a page of my life,” Salameh said in an overnight interview on LBCI television. “Throughout 27 years, the Central Bank contributed to establishing stability and economic growth and lowering interest,” Salameh added. Hoping there will not be “disturbances in the market” after his departure, Salameh called for keeping “the mechanisms that contributed to the market’s stability.” “I do not blame myself for the collapse, seeing as they want to turn me into a scapegoat,” Salameh added, noting that the Central Bank “financed the state and did not spend the funds.”“May God forgive those who do not appreciate what I did,” he said. Responding to criticism by Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil, Salameh said: “The Central Bank has addressed the results of the government’s policies that led to a deficit in the electricity sector … We spent 25 billion dollars on the electricity plan, not to mention the subsidization policy and the new wage scale that I had warned against.”The outgoing governor also denied having run a financial “Ponzi scheme.”“If it’s true that we’re running a Ponzi scheme, we would not have managed to safeguard the market for three and a half years. They are clinging to slogans to mislead the people and convince them that the ‘thug’ Riad Salameh is the one who stole and is the one behind the collapse,” Salameh said. “They have been surprised that the Central Bank is still standing on its feet,” he added. As for the controversy over the duties of the Central Bank’s four vice governors when his term expires, Salameh said: “The mission of the Central Bank’s vice governors is to manage the institution, which I hope will remain resilient.” As for the vice governors’ plan to set up an alternative to the Sayrafa platform, Salameh warned that “setting up a platform without the Central Bank’s intervention takes time.”“The Central Bank must remain in the market, because there is no supply of dollars but rather demand, something that threatens the lira,” Salameh said. “I do not want to abolish Sayrafa, seeing as it has made the Central Bank a key player in the market,” he added.

The Enigmatic Central Bank Leadership: Decisions Delayed and Speculations Abound
LBCI/July 27, 2023
The First Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon, Wissam Mansouri, is still taking his time to announce his final position regarding the responsibilities and powers of the Central Bank Governor upon the vacancy of the position in terms of what the monetary and credit law requires him to assume the duties and powers of the BDL Governor. According to the information that has been circulated, Mansouri has been informed of an effort to convene a general parliamentary session to approve a document in which the government takes responsibility for continuing to spend from the mandatory reserve to finance the state. However, parliamentary sources do not consider this information to be feasible in reality. If the MPs wanted such legislation, meetings between the Administration and Justice Committee and the Central Bank Governor's deputies would be required. Since that date, the situation has not changed, and the days leading up to the end of the Governor's term on July 31 do not allow enough time to hold such a session. On the other hand, sources in the Ministry of Justice have confirmed that the talk about appointing an interim director for the Central Bank of Lebanon by an expedited matters judge in the Council of State is merely a precautionary measure that can only be implemented if the First Deputy Governor of the Central Bank, Wissam Mansouri, refuses to assume the Governor's duties. Therefore, the Ministry of Justice, which has prepared a letter regarding the appointment of an interim director, is sending it to the Judicial Affairs Council, which will then forward it to the Council of State. The expedited matters judge in this council cannot name an interim director unless the Central Bank Governor's position vacancy has already occurred.

Amidst Ministerial Boycott, Mikati Navigates Lebanon's Fiscal Turmoil
LBCI/July 27, 2023
Despite being aware of the required quorum for holding a cabinet session, Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati did not retract his invitation to the session titled "Discussion of the Developments in the Financial and Monetary Situation as the Term of the Central Bank Governor is Coming to an End."
As a result, on Thursday morning, there was a crowd of journalists and photographers at the Grand Serail. At the same time, only seven ministers out of 24 attended. The ministers who attended justified their participation by rejecting boycotts and stated that the discussion focused on the financial and monetary situation and the post-Riad Salameh phase. However, due to the extent of the boycott, the attending ministers went to Mikati's office. They held a consultative meeting instead of holding a cabinet session. Following this meeting, Mikati issued a statement responding to the boycotting ministers and the political entities behind them, considering that they missed an opportunity to address a temporary file related to the financial and monetary situations. He called on all parties to take responsibility for their decisions. Mikati pointed out that the critical circumstances in Lebanon and the sensitivity of the financial and monetary situations require exceptional performance from the ministers and various concerned political leaders to avoid further tensions and address urgent matters. He urged them to rise above obstruction and refrain from indulging in delays. He emphasized that the government is not responsible for the presidential vacuum and called on the MPs to elect a new president for the country promptly. Later, in a brief chat with the media, Mikati revealed that he has not yet succeeded in persuading the governor's deputies to withdraw their resignations, and the current discussion is about providing temporary funding to stabilize matters. He expressed no fear of significant fluctuations in the dollar's value, asserting that the monetary mass can be absorbed quickly. According to Mikati, the country faces two opportunities: the first is to elect a president representing all political forces, and the second is to restore the functioning of financial and monetary matters naturally.

Justice Ministry says to seek naming BDL interim director
Naharnet/July 27, 2023
The Justice Ministry announced Wednesday that it is preparing to submit to the State Shura Council a request for naming an interim director for the Central Bank, days before the expiry of the term of long-serving Governor Riad Salameh. The Ministry said its move comes “in light of the developments that might arise over the next two days, to avoid any vacuum in the Central Bank’s governor post and to secure the proper functioning of the financial and monetary facility.”As per Lebanese laws, the bank’s first vice governor assumes the governor’s duties should the post become vacant for any reason. But according to media reports, First Vice Governor Wassim Mansouri is inclined to resign prior to Salameh’s departure amid ambiguity over the stance of the other three vice governors.

Mikati Discusses BDL Governor's Post-Term with Deputies: Calls for Cooperation to Ensure Stability
LBCI/July 27, 2023
Mikati Discusses BDL Governor's Post-Term with Deputies: Calls for Cooperation to Ensure Stability. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati met on Thursday with the deputies of the Governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon, Wissam Mansouri, Bashir Yaqdhan, Salim Shahin, and Alexandre Moradian.
During the meeting, they reviewed the outcomes of the previous two meetings held to discuss the post-term of the Central Bank Governor, Riad Salameh. The Caretaker Prime Minister emphasized that the current stage requires everyone's cooperation to preserve relative financial and monetary stability and avoid any disturbances. He stressed that a national responsibility rests on all of them if a new Governor is not appointed for the central bank. He underscored that the concerns expressed by the deputies of the Governor in their recent statement are valid, and their proposed plan aligns with the government's plan. The government will collaborate with the Parliament to approve the necessary legislation for the smooth functioning of institutions in this critical phase of Lebanon's history, following the provisions outlined in the monetary and credit law. The deputies of the Governor confirmed that they are fulfilling their national and functional duties within the legal framework. They emphasized that their statement intended to urge everyone to secure the legal and executive requirements to maintain the minimum stability that should not be compromised. They appreciated the response of the political forces in securing the necessary governmental, parliamentary, and legal measures.

Mikati says hasn't succeeded in convincing BDL vice-governors not to resign
Naharnet/July 27, 2023
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said Thursday that he has not yet succeeded in convincing the Central Bank vice-governors not to resign. "We are discussing the opportunity to give the vice-governors a temporary funding to maintain financial stability," he added. Mikati told reporters that everyone should have the needed awareness to find a way to secure the temporary loan until things are fixed, as he reassured that he does not expect a dramatic deterioration of the Lebanese currency. Lebanon, which has no president and is ruled by a caretaker government, might also have to go without a central bank chief from next week, if no successor is named for the embattled bank governor, Riad Salameh, 73, who steps down after three decades at the helm at the end of July. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri had urged Mikati to call for a Cabinet session to appoint a new Central Bank governor but the cabinet session was canceled Thursday due to a lack of quorum. Mikati met twice with vice-governors, Wassim Mansouri, Bashir Yakzan, Salim Chahine and Alexander Mouradian to convince them not to resign after they threatened that they would quit unless politicians swiftly name an incoming governor. The vice-governors have some demands and are asking for the government and parliament's support to continue their work. Lebanon's central bank governor is named by cabinet decree for a six-year mandate that can be renewed multiple times. If the position is vacant, the law stipulates that the first vice-governor take over.
"If the first vice-governor resigns, the second vice-governor should take over," Mikati said. In case all four vice-governors decide to resign, they would act in caretaker capacity until the appointment of a new governor.

After meeting Raad, Le Drian meets Berri for second time
Agence France Presse/July 27, 2023
French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian met Thursday with Hezbollah MP Mohammed Raad in Haret Hreik and with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri for a second time in Ain el-Tineh. Le Drian arrived Tuesday in Lebanon to help resolve divisions that have left the presidency vacant for nearly nine months and met with Berri, who said that the meeting was "good" and that "an opening has pierced through" Lebanon's power vacuum. On Wednesday he met with Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil, Marada leader Suleiman Franjieh and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea. The FPM said that Le Drian proposed to return in September to restart consultations in order to agree on a presidential program before agreeing on an eligible candidate, adding that successive parliamentary sessions would follow. Lebanese lawmakers failed 12 times to elect a successor to former president Michel Aoun amid bitter disputes between Hezbollah and its opponents. On July 17, representatives of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United States, France and Qatar gathered in Doha to discuss Lebanon, urging parliament to choose a president and politicians to "take immediate steps to break the impasse".
Le Drian came to Lebanon last month for the first time as France's envoy, meeting key figures on a "consultative" mission to push for a solution to the protracted political deadlock.

The Story of Salameh: The Start of the Journey
LBCI/July 27, 2023
Once revered as Lebanon's economic watchdog, Governor of the Bank of Lebanon, Riad Salameh, now finds his reputation mired in controversy. Born in 1950 in Antelias, Salameh’s professional journey began at Merrill Lynch, but his meteoric rise would eventually see him dubbed the best central bank governor. Who is Riad Salameh? Educated at Collège Notre Dame de Jamhour School, Salameh went on to receive a degree in Economics from the American University in Beirut. His career took off at the global financial firm Merrill Lynch, where he became the manager for the wealth of affluent clients, including business tycoon Rafik Hariri. When Hariri became Prime Minister after the civil war, Salameh was appointed the governor of the Bank of Lebanon in 1993, becoming its fifth governor since its establishment in 1964. Throughout his career, Salameh has masterfully built alliances while maintaining neutrality among Lebanon's various political factions that make up the ruling class. These relationships helped bring his name into the list of potential presidential candidates, a desire he expressed to journalists according to WikiLeaks. During his tenure, Salameh served under four Presidents, eight Prime Ministers, and six elected parliamentary councils, and his term was renewed four times in 1999, 2005, 2011, and lastly in 2017 during President Michel Aoun's term. This lengthy tenure of 30 years has broken the record for the longest-serving central bank governor, surpassing the previous record holders from Mexico (24 years) and Venezuela (21 years). Salameh’s Economic Strategy: A Double-Edged Sword? Salameh is known for pegging the Lebanese pound to the dollar at 1,500 in 1997. The primary objective was to give an impression of stability, aiming to attract investment and dollars to Lebanon. Simultaneously, this policy provided Lebanese citizens with purchasing power for nearly 25 years. However, to maintain this model, the Bank of Lebanon had to attract dollars to stabilize the pound and finance government expenditures, despite the lack of plans or financial reforms from successive governments. Salameh’s Legacy: Savior or Culprit? Salameh has seen Lebanon through times of peace, war, and prosperity and has overseen every dollar that entered and left the country, right up to the point of economic collapse. His critics argue that his policies contributed to the country's current financial crisis and accuse him of embezzlement, while his supporters credit him with maintaining relative financial stability in an otherwise tumultuous region. After 30 years at the helm, the question remains: where does Riad Salameh go from here? As Lebanon continues to navigate its complex economic landscape, the legacy of this influential figure is poised to remain a point of heated debate.

Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon: Saudi Arabia remains steadfast in its support for Lebanon
LBCI/July 27, 2023
Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Boukhari affirmed on Thursday that the position of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia remains steadfast in its support for Lebanon as a country and its institutions. He added that the Kingdom continues its constant and significant efforts within the Quintet Committee, offering all ideas and proposals that contribute to the rescue of Lebanon. During a tribute dinner at the residence of the Mufti of the Republic, Sheikh Abdel Latif Darian, in Yarze, attended by Sunni deputies, Boukhari added that the Kingdom does not have any initiative to support any specific candidate for the presidency, nor does it interfere in the names of the candidates. It treats all on equal footing and merely presents criteria and qualifications.

Cypriot Interior Minister pays official visit to Beirut over illegal immigration dossier
LBCI/July 27, 2023
Cypriot Minister of Interior is currently paying an official visit to Lebanon to discuss the illegal immigration dossier. He met with Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikatui and caretaker Interior Minister in the presence of the Lebanese General Security chief by interim Major General Elias al-Baysari.

Mawlawi tackles Syrian displacement dossier, illegal migration operations with Cypriot Interior Minister
NNA/ July 27/2023
Caretaker Interior and Municipalities Minister, Judge Bassam Mawlawi, on Thursday welcomed in his office at the Ministry, Interior Minister of Cyprus Konstantinos Ioannou, accompanied by the Cypriot Ambassador to Lebanon Panayiotis Kyriacou, in the presence of Acting Director General of General Security, Brigadier General Elias Baissari. Discussions reportedly touched on the Syrian displacement dossier, and its impact on Lebanon.Talks also mainly touched on the illegal migration operations by sea and the need to combat them.

Mikati: We had an opportunity today to temporarily solve a file related to the financial and monetary situation
NNA/ July 27/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said, in a statement on Thursday, that the government could have reached a temporary remedy to an ordeal at the financial level, blaming the cancellation of the cabinet session on the "political calculations" of some sides. "We had an opportunity today to temporarily solve a file related to the financial and monetary situation, but unfortunately, the political calculations of the concerned sides inside the government take precedence over other considerations; let each side bear the responsibility for their decision," said Mikati. "I will continue to assume my constitutional and national duty and to exert serious effort to ensure the continuity of the state institutions, especially the central bank," he vowed. "I had convened the cabinet today to discuss the financial and monetary conditions. We were supposed to discuss the possible solutions to prevent vacuum at the central bank governorship post. But a number of ministers did not show up and the required quorum was lacking, which forced us to cancel the session and hold a consultative meeting with attending ministers," he explained.
"The critical conditions in Lebanon necessitate exceptional action from the ministers and the concerned political leaderships," he stressed. Mikati did not fail to urge the parliament to expedite the election of a new president of the republic.

Mikati discusses illegal migration issue with Cypriot Interior Minister, meets “Halliburton” Company delegation, Representative of International...
NNA/ July 27/2023
Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Thursday welcomed at the Grand Serail, the Interior Minister of Cyprus Konstantinos Ioannou, accompanied by the Cypriot Ambassador to Lebanon Panayiotis Kyriacou. The meeting was attended by the Secretary General of the Higher Defense Council, Major General Mohammad Mostafa, and Mikati's advisor Boutros Assaker.  Discussions reportedly touched on the issue of illegal migration. Caretaker Premier Mikati also received a delegation from the “Halliburton” Company, who briefed him on the preparations for exploration in Block 9 and the logistical challenges of drilling work. Mikati later received at the Grand Serail, the Representative of the International Organization of La Francophonie in the Middle East, Lévon Amirjanyan, who said after the meeting that he informed Premier Mikati that the Francophone Organization will organize a visit for a trade and economic mission to Lebanon at the beginning of October, in which around one hundred Francophone institutions and companies from 25 countries will participate, in order to communicate with their counterparts to establish partnerships and investments.
“This mission will be led by the Secretary General of La Francophonie, Louise Mushikiwabo. There will be high-level seminars with the participation of senior political and economic officials in the country. This is a good opportunity for Lebanese companies to establish relations with Francophone companies, which will inevitably contribute to the revival of the Lebanese economy,” Amirjanyan noted. Mikati later met with Caretaker Minister of Youth and Sports, George Kallas, who thanked the Premier for sponsoring the "Beirut Capital of Arab Youth 2023" celebration. Mikati then met with the Caretaker National Education and Higher Education Minister, Judge Abbas Al-Halabi, and the President of the Lebanese University, Dr. Bassam Badran. Minister Halabi said on emerging that they discussed with the Premier issues related to the Lebanese University. The Prime Minister also met with Caretaker Minister of Agriculture, Abbas Hajj Hassan, and presented with him affairs related to his ministry. Mikati then met with Caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants, Dr. Abdallah Bou Habib, and discussed with him relevant ministry affairs. Moreover, Mikati also received separately, Acting Director General of General Security, Brigadier General Elias Baissari, then the Director-General of the Internal Security Forces, Major General Imad Othman

Bukhari hosts ceremony in honor of Mufti Derian
NNA/ July 27/2023
Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon, Waleed Bukhari, held last evening a dinner banquet at his Yarze residence in honor of Grand Mufti Sheikh Abullatif Derian, in the presence of the majority of the Sunni MPs. "Mufti Derian thanked Ambassador Bukhari for the ceremony, and stressed that any gathering that brings the Lebanese closer together is well welcomed," a statement by Dar-al-Fatwa indicated. It added that the Mufti also underlined that "the Muslim Sunnis in Lebanon are a key component of the national decision-making," stressing that "they must be unified over the Lebanese constants that guarantee the rights of everyone without exception." "He called for abiding by and holding on to the Taif Agreement," the statement said. "Any other stance is rejected and condemned, and it complicates the solutions that can only be reached through the Taif Agreement," the statement quoted Derian as saying. Moreover, the Mufti warned against attempts to convince people that the decision to elect a new president of the republic is up to one category of the Lebanese. For his part, Bukhari reiterated Saudi Arabia's unwavering support for the Lebanese state and institutions, and its keenness on the Lebanese people. He added that Saudi Arabia "is exerting permanent and continuous efforts in the quintet committee and it is presenting the ideas and proposals that contribute to saving Lebanon." "The Kingdom does not have ant initiative to support any name for presidency and it does not interfere in any name. It stands at an equal distance from everybody," he stressed. "This choice is that of the MPs; the Kingdom only suggests criteria and qualifications," he said, adding that it hopes that a new president is elected as soon as possible.

Mere Wishes before It’s Too Late
Dr. Ali Awad Asiri/Former Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon/Asharq Al Awsat/ July 27/2023
In my capacity, as ambassador of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and by virtue of my knowledge of the Lebanese peculiarity and the extensive discussions that I had with those who represent its symbols, including politicians and businessmen, I believe that the agreements reached during the Doha meeting - which were publicly disclosed to ensure transparency, are the best palliative remedy for the impasse that the country is experiencing. I say that it is analgesic on the basis that after reducing the level of pain resulting from stiffness and stubbornness, it is possible to move to something better.
As for why I see this, it is because the parties that met and deliberated on the case of the Lebanese patient practically represent the Arab and international dimension of the Lebanese specificity. It suffices to reflect on the positions of each of the five countries to confirm my saying, in my capacity as connoisseur of the depth of the Lebanese specificity. One might think that practically involving Iran in the talks that took place would have made the solution more attainable. However, Iran’s non-participation does not mean that those who held the discussions in Doha and not elsewhere did not look at the Qatari role in hosting and managing the meeting. However, it represents, in some aspects of the consultations and what was agreed to be announced publicly, the unspoken Iranian desire to see an objective and dignified end to the intractable Lebanese crisis. In my opinion, the fact that part of the symbols of Lebanese peculiarity carefully read the outcome the five-party consultation concluded in Qatar is sufficient to make the temperature of stubbornness, which exceeds the weather temperatures these days, recede a little, then a lot. Without this careful reading, one can say goodbye to this particularity. This is what I do not wish for a country that enjoys great attention from those who participated in the talks in Doha, just as the people of Lebanon deserve the blessing of stability. The rotation of demands and the re-selection of names somehow dispels the atmosphere of stubbornness that is reflected in phrases that neither serve the country, nor build hopes or preserve a national and sectarian formula. I conclude with a question: Is this logical in anything? To have a realistic safety umbrella called the Taif Accord, and five friendly and active Arab and international countries that are keen on Lebanon more than its politicians - those who were elected to perform the tasks stipulated in the constitution, and not to deal with these tasks with an irresponsible behavior?

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 27-28/2023
U.N. chief Antonio Guterres warns Earth in ‘era of global boiling’
AFP/27 July 2023 
U.N. chief Antonio Guterres on July 27 pleaded for immediate radical action on climate change, saying that record-shattering July temperatures show Earth has passed from a warming phase into an “era of global boiling.”Speaking in New York, the secretary-general described the intense heat across the Northern Hemisphere as a “cruel summer.”“For the entire planet, it is a disaster,” he said, noting that “short of a mini-Ice Age over the next days, July 2023 will shatter records across the board.”“Climate change is here. It is terrifying. And it is just the beginning. The era of global warming has ended; the era of global boiling has arrived.” U.N. chief Antonio Guterres on July 27 pleaded for immediate radical action on climate change, saying that record-shattering July temperatures show Earth has passed from a warming phase into an “era of global boiling.” Speaking in New York, the secretary-general described the intense heat across the Northern Hemisphere as a “cruel summer.”“For the entire planet, it is a disaster,” he said, noting that “short of a mini-Ice Age over the next days, July 2023 will shatter records across the board.” “Climate change is here. It is terrifying. And it is just the beginning. The era of global warming has ended; the era of global boiling has arrived.”The extreme impacts of climate change have been in line with scientists’ “predictions and repeated warnings,” Guterres said, adding that the “only surprise is the speed of the change.”

Deadly Car Bomb Rocks Damascus Suburb
Asharq Al Awsat/27 July 2023
An explosive planted in a taxi Thursday detonated in a Damascus suburb near the Sayida Zeinab shrine, and there were reports of several casualties. The Britain-based opposition war monitor Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that 10 people were killed or wounded in the explosion. The Observatory said a woman was among those who died and that her three children were wounded. The Observatory added that the explosion took place close to positions of Iranian militias. In a video shared on social media, people carried two men covered in blood and dust off the ground while calling for help. The glass facades of shops nearby had shattered, while one was on fire. Earlier this week, two people were wounded in a separate blast outside the shrine.

People wounded in bomb blast at shrine near Syrian capital
Reuters/July 27, 2023
DAMASCUS: A bomb planted in a taxi exploded outside the Sayeda Zeinab shrine city south of the Syrian capital Damascus on Thursday, wounding an unspecified number of people, Syrian state media reported.
Earlier this week, two people were wounded in a separate blast outside the shrine, where pilgrims have been flocking to mark a mourning period for Shiite Muslims.

US says Russian plane hit one of its drones with flare over Syria
July 27, 2023
AMMAN: Jordan’s Prime Minister Bisher Khasawneh met with David Miliband, CEO of the International Rescue Committee, to discuss refugee affairs, Jordan News Agency reported on Thursday. During the meeting, Khasawneh briefed Miliband on the services Jordan offers refugees despite the economic strain the country is under in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The prime minister said that Jordan faces a growing burden hosting refugees, as foreign aid for the country’s response plan to the Syrian crisis has dwindled. The international community, organizations and donors must maintain solidarity in addressing the impact of crises, he said. Miliband highlighted IRC operations in Jordan, which include providing humanitarian aid to alleviate the suffering of refugees.The IRC is a nongovernmental organization established in 1993 to support humanitarian aid and international development efforts.

Israeli fire kills 14-year-old Palestinian, as minister visits flashpoint holy site
Associated Press/July 27, 2023
Israeli military fire killed a 14-year-old Palestinian in the occupied West Bank, Palestinian health officials said Thursday, as an extremist Israeli Cabinet minister visited a sensitive Jerusalem holy site that has been a frequent flashpoint for violence between Israel and the Palestinians. Itamar Ben-Gvir's visit to the disputed hilltop compound comes as Israel and the Palestinians are locked in a year-and-a-half long bout of fighting and could enflame already surging tensions. It also drew condemnation from Palestinians who view such visits as provocative. The site is revered by Jews and Muslims, and the competing claims lie at the heart of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Early Thursday, the Palestinian Health Ministry said 14-year-old Fares Sharhabil Abu Samra was killed by Israeli fire in the West Bank town of Qalqilya. The Israeli military said Palestinians threw rocks and firebombs at troops, who responded by firing into the air. It said the incident was being reviewed. Ben-Gvir was joining what will likely to be hundreds of Jews visiting the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound to mark the Jewish holiday of Tisha B'Av, a day of mourning and repentance when Jews reflect on the destruction of the First and Second Temples, key events in Jewish history. "This is the most important place for the people of Israel which we must return to and show our rule," Ben-Gvir said in a video released by his office, with the golden Dome of the Rock in the background. The Palestinian Authority's Jerusalem Affairs Ministry warned that the government and extremists like Ben-Gvir would "push things toward religious war" by "provoking the feelings of Muslims all over the world." The Palestinian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it considered Ben-Gvir's visit to the sacred compound as an attempt to impose Israeli sovereignty over the site. Ben-Gvir, a former West Bank settler leader and far-right activist who years ago was convicted of incitement and supporting a Jewish terror group, now serves as Israel's national security minister, overseeing the country's police force. Thursday was Ben-Gvir's third known visit to the contested site since becoming a minister in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right government. The site, known to Jews as the Temple Mount, is the holiest site in Judaism, where the biblical Temples once stood. Today, it is home to the Al-Aqsa Mosque, the third-holiest site in Islam. His visit could enflame already surging tensions between Israel and the Palestinians, who have been engaged in months of fighting that have sparked the worst violence in nearly two decades in the West Bank. Since early last year, Israel has been staging near-nightly raids into Palestinian areas which it says are meant to stamp out militancy and thwart future attacks. More than 160 Palestinians have been killed in the fighting this year, according to a tally by The Associated Press. The military says most of those killed have been militants. But stone-throwing youths protesting the incursions and others not involved in the confrontations have also been killed. At least 26 people have been killed in Palestinian attacks against Israelis since the start of 2023. Under longstanding arrangements, Jews are permitted to visit the site, but not to pray there. But in recent years, a growing number of Jewish visitors have begun to quietly pray, raising fears among Palestinians that Israel is plotting to divide or take over the site. Ben-Gvir has long called for increased Jewish access. Israel captured east Jerusalem, where the compound lies, along with the West Bank and the Gaza Strip in the 1967 Mideast war. The Palestinians seek those territories for a future independent state, with east Jerusalem as its capital. Israel annexed east Jerusalem in a move unrecognized by most of the international community and considers the city its undivided, permanent capital. Netanyahu's government, consisting of ultranationalists and West Bank settlement supporters like Ben-Gvir, has intensified steps to solidify Israel's hold on territories that Palestinians seek for a future state, angering Israel's top ally, the United States, and dimming hopes for Palestinian statehood.

Abbas, Haniyeh, Erdogan Hold Meeting in Ankara
Ankara: Saeed Abdulrazek/27 July 2023
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held on Wednesday a tripartite closed meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and head of Hamas political bureau Ismail Haniyeh in Ankara. Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the talks focused on the meeting of the general secretaries to be held in Cairo on July 29-30 and the efforts to make the inter-Palestinian dialogue a success. The sources added that the meeting touched on the developments in the Palestinian territories and the Israeli escalation in Jenin and the West Bank, in addition to the aggressions on Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Gaza Strip.
The tripartite meeting follows a meeting between the delegations of the Palestinian Authority and Hamas to discuss ways to ensure the success of the meeting of the general secretaries in Cairo. Husam Badran, a member of the Hamas politburo, said that the meeting witnessed "a frank and in-depth discussion within the framework of completing the movement's consultations with the various Palestinian factions, to prepare well for the meeting of the general secretaries in Cairo." According to Badran, the two sides agreed on the need to unify national efforts to confront the dangers looming over the Palestinian cause, especially those posed by the Israeli government. "This government wants to swallow up the land, expand settlements, and control the capabilities of our people, and at the forefront of that is the main danger related to the West Bank and occupied Jerusalem," he added.
This is the first meeting between Abbas and the Hamas leadership since his meeting with Haniyeh in July as per an initiative taken by Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune on the sidelines of the celebrations marking the anniversary of the Independence Day of Algeria. The Palestinian presidency didn’t comment on the meeting with the Hamas delegation in Ankara. The meeting of the general secretaries would be held in Cairo for the first time in years. Abbas called for the meeting in July in the wake of an Israeli military operation in Jenin camp in the West Bank that killed 12 and wounded dozens.
Erdogan and Abbas discussed the Palestinian developments, the escalation in Israeli attacks, the aggressions on Al-Aqsa Mosque, and the Palestinian internal dialogue to take place in Cairo. Abbas arrived in Ankara on Monday amid rising concerns of renewed Israeli attacks on Palestinian territories. Haniyeh arrived on Tuesday. During a press conference with Abbas concluding their talks in Ankara Tuesday, Erdogan strongly rejected any actions that seek to alter the historical status quo of holy places, particularly the al-Aqsa Mosque.
“The only way to a just and lasting peace in the region is to defend the vision of a two-state solution,” he added. "Establishing an independent Palestinian state on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital, based on United Nations parameters, is a fundamental prerequisite for peace in our entire region."
“We will continue to support the Palestinian cause in the strongest way possible,” Erdogan said alongside Abbas. “We are deeply worried about the increasing loss of lives, destruction, the expansion of illegal settlements, and settlers’ violence,” added the Turkish leader. For his part, Abbas said that they appreciate Türkiye’s support for the Palestinian people. Abbas pointed to the challenges facing Palestinians, given the current “extreme right-wing” Israeli government’s efforts to undermine the political process through “racist and colonial practices.”

Sudan army mediation team returns home from Jeddah ‘for consultations’
Reuters/July 27, 2023
KHARTOUM: The Sudanese army’s delegation to talks in the Saudi Red Sea port of Jeddah aimed at restoring peace to Sudan has returned home “for consultations” and will continue “after obstacles are overcome,” an army statement said on Thursday. Differences on issues “including the rebels evacuating civilian homes in the capital and public facilities, hospitals and roads” led to a lack of agreement on an end to hostilities, the army said. The fighting broke out in April as the army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) vied for power. Since then, more than 3 million people have been uprooted, including more than 700,000 who have fled to neighboring countries. Some 1,136 people have been killed, according to the health ministry, though officials believe the number is higher. While the two warring sides have shown openness toward mediation efforts led by regional and international actors, none has resulted in a sustained cease-fire. The two sides resumed talks, facilitated by Saudi Arabia and the United States, in Jeddah this month.

Putin says fighting in southeastern Ukraine has intensified, with heavy losses for Kyiv’s forces
AP/July 27, 2023
KYIV: Fierce fighting raged Thursday in southeastern Ukraine, where a Western official said Kyiv has launched a major push and Russian President Vladimir Putin said “hostilities have intensified significantly.”
Battles in recent weeks have taken place on multiple points along the 1,500-kilometer (930-mile) front line as Ukraine wages a counteroffensive with Western-supplied weapons and Western-trained troops against Russian forces who invaded 17 months ago. Putin praised the “heroism” with which Russian soldiers were repelling attacks in the Zaporizhzhia region of the southeast, claiming Moscow’s troops not only destroyed Ukraine’s military equipment but also inflicted heavy losses to Kyiv’s forces. He insisted Ukraine’s push in the area “wasn’t successful,” although it was not possible to independently verify his report. A video of Putin’s remarks, made in St. Petersburg at a summit of African leaders, was posted on Telegram by a state TV reporter Pavel Zarubin. Ukraine has committed thousands of troops in the region in recent days, according to a Western official who was not authorized to comment publicly on the matter.
Ukrainian officials have been mostly silent about battlefield developments since they began early counteroffensive operations, although Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said troops are advancing toward the city of Melitopol in the Zaporizhizhia region. Though that could be a tactical feint, and both governments have used disinformation to gain battlefield advantages, such a maneuver would be in line with what some analysts had predicted.
They envisioned a counteroffensive to punch through the land corridor between Russia and the Crimean Peninsula, illegally annexed by Moscow in 2014, toward Melitopol, near the Sea of Azov. That could split Russian forces into two and cut supply lines to units farther west. Russia currently controls the whole Sea of Azov coast. The counteroffensive faces deeply entrenched Russian defenses featuring minefields, trenches and anti-tank obstacles. The Institute of Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, reported that Ukrainian forces launched “a significant mechanized counteroffensive operation in western Zaporizhzhia region” Wednesday and “appear to have broken through certain pre-prepared Russian defensive positions.”It cited Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense and several prominent Russian military bloggers. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, meanwhile, visited military commanders and workers caring for the wounded north of that region. He said via a Telegram post that he was in Dnipro, along the Dnieper River to the north of Zaporizhzhia, meeting with military commanders to discuss air defenses, ammunition supplies and supervision over regional recruitment centers. He also visited a medical facility caring for the wounded from the front, thanking the staff and emphasizing the importance of their work in saving the lives. In what appeared to be a precautionary move, Russia’s Federal Security Service, known as the FSB, on Thursday prohibited civilian access to the Arabat Spit in Crimea, a narrow strip of land that links the annexed peninsula to the partially occupied Kherson region. The Kherson region is a key gateway to Crimea. The open-ended ban is needed to contain security threats, the FSB said in a statement quoted by Russia’s state news agency RIA Novosti.
US officials, who have provided Kyiv with weapons and intelligence, declined to comment publicly on the latest developments, though they have previously urged patience as Ukraine seeks to grind down Russian positions. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said during a visit to Papua New Guinea that Kyiv’s effort to retake land seized by Russia since its full-scale invasion in February 2022 would be tough and long, with successes and setbacks. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said “an intense battle” is taking place but declined to provide details. “We believe that tools, the equipment, the training, the advice that many of us have shared with Ukrainians over many months puts them in good position to be successful on the ground in recovering more of the territory that Russia has taken from Ukraine,” Blinken said in New Zealand. Meanwhile, a missile strike on Ukraine’s southern Odesa region killed one civilian and further damaged the region’s port infrastructure, in the latest attack since Moscow broke off a grain export agreement, Odesa Gov. Oleh Kiper reported Thursday. The attack used Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea, he said. The Ukraine Air Force of Ukraine said Thursday it intercepted 36 Russian missiles launched from Tu-95MS strategic bombers.

Russian fighter jet strikes US drone over Syria in sixth incident this month
Associated Press/July 27, 2023
A Russian fighter jet has fired flares and struck another U.S. drone over Syrian airspace, the White House said, in a continued string of harassing maneuvers that have ratcheted up tensions between the global powers. It's the sixth reported incident this month, and the second in the past 24 hours, in which the United States has said Russian warplanes have flown dangerously close to American manned and unmanned aircraft, putting crews and the planes at risk and raising questions as to what the U.S. may need to do in response. Two U.S. officials confirmed that the strike damaged the MQ-9 Reaper drone. The officials were not authorized to publicly discuss the matter and spoke on condition of anonymity. "We've seen the reports, the early reports, of a second Russian fighter aircraft this week flying dangerously close to our drone" on a mission to counter Islamic State militants in Syria, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said. She did not provide other details, but said Russia's "close approach to and deployment of flares over U.S. drones during a routine mission" violates international norms. In the incidents over the past two days, Russian warplanes have fired flares that struck U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones. On Tuesday, the flares damaged a drone's propeller; on Wednesday, Russian-dropped flares hit a drone. In previous incidents, Russian jets have intercepted the U.S. planes at dangerously close distances, including one instance with a manned aircraft that the U.S. said put the lives of the four American crewmembers at risk. A senior Russian military leader blamed the U.S. for the latest incident, and charged that aircraft from the U.S.-led coalition in Syria violated deconfliction protocols with Russia 10 times in the past 24 hours.
Rear Adm. Oleg Gurinov, the head of the Russian military's Reconciliation Center in Syria, said that the U.S. drone flew dangerously close to a pair of Russian warplanes in the skies over Syria early Wednesday. Gurinov said that onboard systems of the Russian Su-34 and Su-35 aircraft spotted the aircraft being targeted and triggered the automatic release of flares.
"The United States are continuing to disinform the public about unlawful flights of its drones in the Syrian air space that have failed to undergo deconflicting procedure while accusing the Russian side of dangerous maneuvering," Gurinov said in a statement carried by the Interfax news agency.
He also said the U.S. drone involved in the Tuesday encounter was not cleared through deconfliction procedures and was "entirely provocative." He said Russian pilots "showed a high degree of professionalism and took timely steps to avoid a collision with the drone."
U.S. and Russian military commanders routinely communicate over a deconfliction phone line that has been in place for several years to avoid unintended clashes in Syria. There are often many calls a day, and at times result in angry threats as commanders argue over an ongoing operation, according to a senior U.S. official. Experts say Russia is likely conducting the harassing attacks to support Iran's goal of ousting U.S. forces from Syria, with a senior U.S. defense official saying Iran wants to be able to more easily move lethal aid to Lebanese Hezbollah and threaten Israel. Russia relies on Iran's support for the Kremlin's war operations in Ukraine. Toward that end, the U.S. has seen more cooperation, collaboration, planning and intelligence sharing, largely between mid-level Russian and Iranian Quds force leaders in Syria, said the senior U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing military missions. John Hardie, director of the Russia program for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the intercepts are part of a coordinated effort by Russia and Iran "to try to push the U.S. out of Syria, just kind of build pressure over time, in the hopes that Washington will eventually withdraw."
But the intercepts raise questions as to how the U.S. will respond and whether the risk of a larger confrontation is increasing.
"It doesn't seem like the Russians really want a direct, hot confrontation, but things that are sort of below that threshold, like messing with our drones, is right up their alley," Hardie said. He suggested that one option may be similar to how the U.S. responded after a Black Sea incident near Crimea, where a Russian jet collided with a U.S. drone. The U.S. relocated its patrols to avoid getting into a direct conflict. Both the U.S. and Russia are conducting missions in Syria. Russia backs the government of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad. The U.S. is working with the Kurdish-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in operations against IS extremists. The SDF is in a civil war with Assad.
In previous incidents over Syria, according to U.S. Air Forces Central:
—on Sunday, a Russian fighter aircraft flew "dangerously close" to a U.S. MQ-9 drone conducting a mission against IS militants and deployed flares from directly overhead. The aircraft were only a few meters apart. One of the flares struck the MQ-9, "severely damaging its propeller."
—on July 16, a Russian Su-35 fighter jet forced an American twin-engine surveillance plane routinely used by special operations forces to fly through the Su-35's wake turbulence, which "reduced the crew's ability to safely operate the aircraft and put the four crewmembers' lives at risk." The intercept of the manned MC-12 represented "a new level of unsafe and unprofessional actions by Russian aircraft operating in Syria." —on July 7, Russian aircraft flew what were 18 unprofessional close passes that caused three MQ-9s to react to avoid unsafe situations.
—on July 6, Russian aircraft dropped flares in front of MQ-9 drones conducting a counterterrorism mission and flew dangerously close.
—on July 5, Russian fighter jets harassed three MQ-9 drones by dropping multiple parachute flares in front of the drones, forcing the aircraft to conduct evasive maneuvers. Additionally, "one Russian pilot positioned their aircraft in front of an MQ-9 and engaged afterburner, thereby reducing the operator's ability to safely operate the aircraft."

African leaders arrive in Russia for summit as Kremlin seeks allies
Associated Press/July 27, 2023
Some African leaders arrived in Russia for a summit with President Vladimir Putin as he seeks allies amid the fighting in Ukraine, while the Kremlin accused Western powers of "outrageous" efforts to pressure other African heads of state not to attend. Putin has billed the two-day summit that opens Thursday in St. Petersburg as a major event that would help bolster ties with a continent of 1.3 billion people that is increasingly assertive on the global stage. "Today, Africa is asserting itself more and more confidently as one of the poles of the emerging multipolar world," Putin said in a statement released by the Kremlin. "The forum will provide a further boost to our political and humanitarian partnership for many years to come." On Wednesday, Putin held one-on-one talks with Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and said Russia will more than triple the number of Ethiopian students it hosts and cover their education costs.
Ethiopia's government has been under pressure from the U.S. and the World Food Program after they made the extraordinary decision to suspend food aid to the country earlier this year following the discovery of massive theft of aid. They seek reforms that involve the government giving up controls over aid distribution. Meanwhile, watchdogs say hunger is rising in areas like the Tigray region that is recovering from two years of conflict. Later in the day, Putin also met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, hailing their growing bilateral trade that accounts for about one third of Russia's trade with Africa. El-Sissi noted that Russia has been building Egypt's first nuclear power plant and emphasized the "special character of relations" between the two countries. "I'm sure that the Russia-Africa summit will achieve significant results," he said. Africa's 54 nations make up the largest voting bloc at the United Nations and have been more divided than any other region on General Assembly resolutions criticizing Russia's actions in Ukraine. It's the second Russia-Africa summit since 2019. The number of heads of state attending shrank from 43 then to 17 now because of what the Kremlin described as crude Western pressure to discourage African nations from taking part. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov deplored "unconcealed brazen interference by the U.S., France and other states through their diplomatic missions in African countries, and attempts to put pressure on the leadership of these countries in order to prevent their active participation in the forum." "It's absolutely outrageous, but it will in no way prevent the success of the summit," Peskov said in a conference call with reporters.
Putin's foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov said that while only 17 heads of state will attend the summit, 32 other African countries will be represented by senior government officials or ambassadors. "We remain committed to assisting our African partners in every possible way to help them strengthen their national and cultural sovereignty, to play a more active role in resolving regional and global challenges," Putin said in Wednesday's statement. The summit follows Russia's withdrawal from a deal that allowed Black Sea exports, vital to many African countries, a move that drew a strong condemnation around the world and raised new threats to global food security. Russia shrugged off criticism and doubled down by launching a barrage of missile attacks on Ukrainian ports and agriculture facilities. At the same time, Putin has repeatedly pledged that Russia would offer free grain to low-income African countries now that the Black Sea deal has been terminated. "I want to give assurances that our country is capable of replacing the Ukrainian grain both on a commercial and free-of-charge basis," Putin said in a statement Monday, asserting that Russia shipped almost 10 million tons of grain to Africa in the first half of the year. Along with grain, another issue likely to be on the agenda will be the fate of Russia's Wagner military company led by Yevgeny Prigozhin following its brief rebellion against the Kremlin last month. Wagner's future will be an urgent issue for countries like Sudan, Mali and others who contract with the mercenary group in exchange for natural resources like gold. Russian officials and Prigozhin have said the company will continue working in Africa. A peace proposal for Ukraine that African leaders have tried to pursue is set to be discussed as well. "The summit background will also offer an opportunity to African heads of state who are part of the African Leaders Peace Mission to continue talks with President Putin on the confidence-building measures that will create conducive conditions for a path to peace between Russia and Ukraine," a statement from the South African presidency said Wednesday.

Putin's declared deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus raises tensions
Associated Press/July 27, 2023
Sometime this summer, if President Vladimir Putin can be believed, Russia moved some of its short-range nuclear weapons into Belarus, closer to Ukraine and onto NATO's doorstep. The declared deployment of the Russian weapons on the territory of its neighbor and loyal ally marks a new stage in the Kremlin's nuclear saber-rattling over its invasion of Ukraine and another bid to discourage the West from increasing military support to Kyiv. Neither Putin nor his Belarusian counterpart, Alexander Lukashenko, said how many were moved — only that Soviet-era facilities in the country were readied to accommodate them, and that Belarusian pilots and missile crews were trained to use them. The U.S. and NATO haven't confirmed the move. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg denounced Moscow's rhetoric as "dangerous and reckless," but said earlier this month the alliance hasn't seen any change in Russia's nuclear posture. While some experts doubt the claims by Putin and Lukashenko, others note that Western intelligence might be unable to monitor such movement. Earlier this month, CNN quoted U.S. intelligence officials as saying they had no reason to doubt Putin's claim about the delivery of the first batch of the weapons to Belarus and noted it could be challenging for the U.S. to track them.
Unlike nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles that can destroy entire cities, tactical nuclear weapons for use against troops on the battlefield can have a yield as small as about 1 kiloton. The U.S. bomb in Hiroshima in World War II was 15 kilotons.The devices are compact: Used on bombs, missiles and artillery shells, they could be discreetly carried on a truck or plane. Aliaksandr Alesin, an independent Minsk-based military analyst, said the weapons use containers that emit no radiation and could have been flown into Belarus without Western intelligence seeing it.
"They easily fit in a regular Il-76 transport plane," Alesin said. "There are dozens of flights a day, and it's very difficult to track down that special flight. The Americans could fail to monitor it." Belarus has 25 underground facilities built during the Cold War for nuclear-tipped intermediate-range missiles that can withstand missile attacks, Alesin said. Only five or six such depots could actually store tactical nuclear weapons, he added, but the military operates at all of them to fool Western intelligence. Early in the war, Putin referenced his nuclear arsenal by vowing repeatedly to use "all means" necessary to protect Russia. He has toned down his statements recently, but a top lieutenant continues to dangle the prospect with terrifying ease. Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy head of Russia's Security Council who served as a placeholder president in 2008-12 because Putin was term-limited, unleashes near-daily threats that Moscow won't hesitate to use nuclear weapons. In a recent article, Medvedev said "the apocalypse isn't just possible but quite likely," and the only way to avoid it is to bow to Russian demands.
The world faces a confrontation "far worse than during the Cuban missile crisis because our enemies have decided to really defeat Russia, the largest nuclear power," he wrote. Many Western observers dismiss that as bluster. Putin seems to have dialed down his nuclear rhetoric after getting signals to do so from China, said Keir Giles, a Russia expert at Chatham House. "The evident Chinese displeasure did have an effect and may have been accompanied by private messaging to Russia," Giles told The Associated Press. Moscow's defense doctrine envisages a nuclear response to an atomic strike or even an attack with conventional weapons that "threaten the very existence of the Russian state." That vague wording has led some Russian experts to urge the Kremlin to spell out those conditions in more detail and force the West to take the warnings more seriously.
"The possibility of using nuclear weapons in the current conflict mustn't be concealed," said Dmitry Trenin, who headed the Moscow Carnegie Center for 14 years before joining Moscow's state-funded Institute for World Economy and International Relations. "The real, not theoretical, perspective of it should create stimuli for stopping the escalation of the war and eventually set the stage for a strategic balance in Europe that would be acceptable to us," he wrote recently.
Western beliefs that Putin is bluffing about using nuclear weapons "is an extremely dangerous delusion," Trenin said. Sergei Karaganov, a top Russian foreign affairs expert who advises Putin's Security Council, said Moscow should make its nuclear threats more specific in order to "break the will of the West" and force it to stop supporting Ukraine as it seeks to reclaim Russian-held areas in a grinding counteroffensive. "It's necessary to restore the fear of nuclear escalation; otherwise mankind is doomed," he said, suggesting Russia establish a "ladder" of accelerating actions. Deploying nuclear weapons in Belarus was the first step, Karaganov said, with perhaps a follow-up of warning ethnic Russians in countries supporting Ukraine to evacuate areas near facilities that could be nuclear targets.
If that doesn't work, Karaganov suggested a Russian nuclear strike on Poland, alleging Washington wouldn't dare respond in kind to protect a NATO ally, for fear of igniting a global war. "If we build the right strategy of intimidation and even the use of it, the risk of a retaliatory nuclear or any other strike on our territory could be reduced to a minimum," he said. "Only if a madman who hates his own country sits in the White House would America risk to launch a strike 'in the defense' of the Europeans and draw a response, sacrificing Boston for Poznan."
The Moscow-based Council of Foreign and Defense Policies, a panel of leading military and foreign policy experts that includes Karaganov, denounced his comments as "a direct threat to all of mankind." While pro-Kremlin analysts floated such scenarios, Lukashenko, the Belarusian leader, says hosting Russian nuclear weapons in his country is meant to deter aggression by Poland. He claimed a number of nuclear weapons were flown to Belarus without Western intelligence noticing, with the rest coming later this year. Officials in Moscow and Minsk said the warheads could be carried by Belarusian Su-25 ground attack jets or fitted to short-range Iskander missiles.
Giles, of Chatham House, said the deployment was about "cementing Putin's control over Belarus" and did not offer Moscow any military advantage over placing them in Russia's Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad that borders Poland and Lithuania. The West should recognize this as a ploy "that has far more to do with Russia's ambitions for Belarus than any genuine impact on European security beyond that," Giles said. Some observers question whether the deployment to Belarus has even happened. Miles Pomper, a senior fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute, challenged Lukashenko's claim that nuclear weapons were covertly flown to Belarus. They are normally moved by rail, he said, and there are no signs of "the support elements that you would see that would go with shipments of weapons." Others note Russia could have deployed the weapons without adhering to protocols used in the 1990s, when Moscow wanted to show the West its nuclear arsenal was secure amid economic and political turmoil. Belarusian military analyst Valery Karbalevich said keeping such details secret could be a Kremlin strategy of "applying permanent pressure and blackmailing Ukraine and the West. The unknown scares more than certainty." Alesin, the Minsk-based analyst, argued that U.S. and NATO may play down the deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus because they pose a threat the West finds difficult to counter. "The Belarusian nuclear balcony will hang over a large part of Europe. But they prefer to pretend that there is no threat, and the Kremlin is just trying to scare the West," he said. If Putin decides to use nuclear weapons, he may do it from Belarus in hopes that a Western response would target that country instead of Russia, Alesin said. The political opposition to Lukashenko warns that such a deployment turns Belarus into a hostage of the Kremlin. While Lukashenko sees such weapons as a "nuclear umbrella" protecting the country, "they turn Belarus into a target," said exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who tried to unseat the authoritarian leader in a 2020 election widely viewed as fraudulent. "We are telling the world that preventative measures, political pressure and sanctions are needed to resist the deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus," she said. "Regrettably, we haven't seen a strong Western reaction yet."

Kyiv launches major push against Russian forces, officials and analysts say
Associated Press/July 27, 2023
Ukraine has launched a major push to dislodge Russian forces from the country's southeast as part of its weekslong counteroffensive, committing thousands of troops to the battle, according to Western and Ukrainian officials and analysts. The surge in troops and firepower has been centered on the region of Zaporizhzhia, a Western official said late Wednesday. The official was not authorized to comment publicly on the matter and spoke on condition of anonymity. Fighting has intensified in recent weeks at multiple points along the 1,500-kilometer (930-mile) front line as Ukraine deploys Western-supplied advanced weapons and Western-trained troops against the Russian forces who invaded 17 months ago. The counteroffensive is a massive military operation, which likely was months in preparation. Military planners need to orchestrate supplies of ammunition, food, medical supplies and spare parts to the front line. It faces deeply entrenched Russian defenses featuring minefields, trenches and anti-tank obstacles. Ukrainian officials have been mostly silent about battlefield developments since they began early counteroffensive operations, though Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said troops are advancing toward the city of Melitopol in the Zaporizhizhia region. Though that movement could be a tactical feint, and both governments have used disinformation to gain battlefield advantages, such a maneuver would be in line with what some analysts had predicted. They envisioned a counteroffensive that would try to punch through the land corridor between Russia and the Russian-annexed Crimean peninsula, moving towards Melitopol, which is close to the coast of the Azov Sea. That could split Russian forces into two halves and cut off supply lines to the units that are located further to the west. Russia currently controls the whole Sea of Azov coast. The intense fighting is taking place in areas in the south and east of Ukraine, far from the capital Kyiv, and it was not possible to verify either side's claims. The Institute of Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, reported that Ukrainian forces launched "a significant mechanized counteroffensive operation in western Zaporizhzhia region" on Wednesday, adding that they "appear to have broken through certain pre-prepared Russian defensive positions." It cited Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense and several prominent Russian military bloggers. But a Moscow-appointed head of the partially occupied Zaporizhzhia region, Yevgeny Balitsky, said Ukrainian forces on Thursday morning tried unsuccessfully to break through Russian defenses in the area. Kyiv's forces "suffered significant losses and pulled back to (their) positions," Balistky said. However, in what appeared to be a precautionary move, Russia's Federal Security Service, known as the FSB, on Thursday prohibited civilian access to the Arabat Spit in Crimea, a narrow strip of land that links the annexed peninsula to the partially occupied Kherson region. The Kherson region is a key gateway to Crimea
The open-ended ban is needed to contain security threats, the FSB said in a statement quoted by Russia's state news agency RIA Novosti. U.S. officials, who have provided Kyiv with weapons and intelligence, declined to comment publicly on the latest developments, though they have previously urged patience as Ukraine seeks to grind down Russian positions. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said during a visit to Papua New Guinea that Kyiv's effort to retake land seized by Russia since its February 2022 full-scale invasion would be "tough" and "long," with successes and setbacks. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said "an intense battle" is taking place but declined to provide details. "We believe that tools, the equipment, the training, the advice that many of us have shared with Ukrainians over many months puts them in good position to be successful on the ground in recovering more of the territory that Russia has taken from Ukraine," Blinken said during a visit to New Zealand. Meanwhile, a missile strike on Ukraine's southern Odesa region killed one civilian and further damaged the region's port infrastructure, in the latest attack since Moscow broke off a grain export agreement, Odesa Gov. Oleh Kiper reported Thursday. The attack used Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea, he said. The Ukraine Air Force of Ukraine said Thursday it intercepted 36 Russian missiles launched from Tu-95MS strategic bombers.

Sweden, Finland and Switzerland consider security links with US National Guard
Associated Presss/July 27, 2023
Switzerland, Finland and Sweden are considering joining the U.S. National Guard's security partnership program in a further expansion of American military ties across Europe after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The chief of the National Guard, Gen. Dan Hokanson, was expected to announce the discussions with each country, which have not previously been reported, in remarks at the National Press Club on Thursday. The Associated Press obtained an advance copy of Hokanson's speech. Interest by the three countries in the program is the latest indication of how Russia's war has led each of those nations to take steps that consider ending long-standing policies of military nonalignment. Finland and Sweden were the most recent countries to seek NATO membership; Finland joined in April and Sweden is waiting for approval. Longtime-neutral Switzerland began considering easing export controls on sending weapons to active war zones earlier this year. The National Guard's State Partnership Program is a lesser-known but key military instrument for U.S. troops to build relationships with foreign militaries by conducting regular training and education exchanges with young officers. It partners National Guard units with host nations. The program can help foreign military better shape their own operations to reflect Western military organization and equipment. That is something seen as key to getting a host of Eastern European nations on NATO standards to ease how multinational armies could conduct operations.
The National Guard program began 30 years ago after the collapse of the Soviet Union as former Soviet states looked for ways to move away from their communist-styled military organization. Ukraine was one of the first to join the National Guard program, partnering with California's National Guard. From the earliest days of Russia's invasion, Ukraine's air force has reached out for support to the California National Guard partners it trained with. Sweden and neighbor Finland ended their policy of military nonalignment after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Both applied for NATO membership, seeking protection under the organization's security umbrella. Finland, which shares a more than 800-mile (1,300-kilometer) border with Russia, joined NATO in April. But Sweden, which has avoided military alliances for more than 200 years, had previously been delayed due to objections from Turkey. But earlier this month, Turkey agreed to remove one of the last major roadblocks to Sweden's membership. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Turkey had agreed to support Sweden's NATO bid –- by putting the issue to a vote in parliament -- in return for deeper cooperation on security issues and a promise from Sweden to revive Turkey's quest for European Union membership. The war in Ukraine has also prompted Swiss government officials to grapple with their country's longtime conception of neutrality, which is enshrined in the constitution and prohibits exporting weaponry to active war zones.

Kuwait hangs five, including 2015 mosque bombing convict
Associated Press/July 27, 2023
Kuwait said Thursday it executed five prisoners, including an inmate convicted over the bombing of a Shiite mosque in 2015 that killed 27 people and was claimed by the Islamic State group. The inmates were hanged at the Central Prison, Kuwait's Public Prosecution said in a statement. Prosecutors said the five include the mosque attacker, three people convicted of murder and a convicted drug dealer. One of the convicted murderers was Egyptian, another was Kuwaiti, and the convicted drug dealer was from Sri Lanka. The statement didn't provide the nationality of the mosque attacker or the third convicted murderer, saying only that they were in Kuwait unlawfully. The 2015 bombing occurred during midday Friday prayers inside one of Kuwait's oldest Shiite mosques. The Islamic State group, which at the time controlled large areas in both Syria and Iraq, claimed the attack, which was carried out by a suicide bomber. The Sunni extremist group views Shiites as apostates deserving of death. It was the first militant attack in Kuwait in more than two decades. The attack was likely intended to foment unrest between Kuwait's Sunni and Shiite Muslim populations, but instead it was widely condemned and reawakened a sense of national solidarity not seen since Saddam Hussein's 1990 invasion of the small, oil-rich country. The extremist group no longer controls any territory following a grueling military campaign by an array of local and international forces, but continues to carry out sporadic attacks in Syria and Iraq. It also boasts affiliates in several Asian and African countries. Executions are relatively rare in Kuwait, which put seven inmates to death last November. Before that, the last mass execution was in 2017, when Kuwait executed seven prisoners, including a ruling family member.
The executions last November, which coincided with a visit by a European Commission official, drew condemnation from the European Union and human rights groups, derailing discussions around exempting Kuwaiti travelers from having to obtain EU visas. The 27-member bloc and many rights groups view the death penalty as a form of cruel and unusual punishment that should be abolished. Kuwait and other Gulf nations are known to carry out executions for murder as well as nonviolent drug-related crimes. Saudi Arabia executed 61 people in the first half of this year, according to the European Saudi Organisation for Human Rights, and 196 people in 2022, including 81 in one day.

Bank owners, citizens protest Iraqi dinar decline after US ban on banks
Associated Press/July 27, 2023
Dozens of people protested in front of the Central Bank of Iraq in Baghdad and bank owners called for official action to stem a sharp increase in the dollar exchange rate Wednesday, after the United States blacklisted 14 Iraqi banks. Over the past two days, the market rate of the dollar jumped from 1,470 dinar per dollar to 1,570 dinar per dollar. The jump came after the U.S. listed 14 private Iraqi banks among banks that are banned from dealing with U.S. dollars due to suspicions of money laundering and funneling funds to Iran. The ban was imposed by the U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and was first reported by the Wall Street Journal on July 19. "The listing of almost one third of the private banks as banned from dealing with the U.S. dollar will have negative consequences from many perspectives," Haidar al Shamaa, owner of a private bank in Baghdad said at a news conference Wednesday. He called on "the brothers at the Iraqi government to work ... to undo the damage which occurred to us specifically, and to the Iraqi banking section in general." The 14 banks facing the ban issued a joint statement urging the Iraqi government to address the issue and warning that banning a third of Iraq's private banks from dollar trading would not only impact the dollar price but hinder foreign investment. Protesters organized by a group calling itself Thuwar Tishreen (October Revolutionaries), which is connected to a movement that started mass protests in Iraq in 2021, also demanded that the government take action to halt inflation. Also on Wednesday, central bank chief Ali al-Allaq told the state-run Iraqi News Agency that his institution continues to provide dollars at the official rate of 1,320 dinar to the dollar for "all legitimate transactions" including "remittances and credits for various imports."He blamed the current rise in the street price of the dollar on the "reluctance of certain merchants" who "do not practice legitimate activities and operations" to use the official electronic platform used for currency requests. On Sunday, the Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani met with al-Allaq and discussed measures to stabilize the dinar price against the dollar. A similar dive in the value of the dinar took place earlier this year after measures taken by the United States late last year to stamp out money laundering and the channeling of dollars to Iran and Syria from Iraq severely restricted Iraq's access to hard currency.

Niger's FM calls for president's release after mutinous soldiers declared a coup
Associated Press/July 27, 2023
Niger's foreign minister called for mutinous soldiers to release the president on Thursday, a day after members of the presidential guard declared they had seized power in a coup over the West African country's deteriorating security situation. While many people in the capital of Niamey went about their usual business, it remained unclear who was in control of the country and which side the majority might support. A statement tweeted by the army command's account declared that it would back the coup in order to avoid a "murderous confrontation" that could lead to a "bloodbath." It was not possible to confirm that the statement was genuine. Support appeared strong, meanwhile, among political parties for President Mohamed Bazoum, who was detained at his residence but managed to tweet a message of defiance on Thursday. Several political groups have called the coup attempt "suicidal and anti-republican madness.""There was an attempted coup, but of course we cannot accept it," Foreign Minister Hassoumi Massoudou told news network France 24 in an interview. "We call on all Nigerien democratic patriots to stand up as one to say no to this factious action that tends to set us back decades and block the progress of our country," he said. He also called for the president's unconditional release and said talks were ongoing. Benin President Patrice Talon, head of the Economic Community of West African States, is expected to lead mediation efforts. Bazoum, who was elected in 2021 in Niger's first peaceful, democratic transfer of power since its independence from France, is a key ally in the West's efforts to battle jihadists linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group in Africa's Sahel region. Extremists in Niger have carried out attacks on civilians and military personnel, but the overall security situation was not as dire as in neighboring nations. The fight against extremism in the region has become a major arena in which the West and Russia have vied for influence.
Bazoum was seen by many as the West's last hope for partnership in the Sahel after Mali turned away from former colonial power France and instead sought support from the Russian mercenary group Wagner. Wagner appears to be making inroads in Burkina Faso as well. Western countries have poured aid into Niger, and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited in March, seeking to strengthen ties. American, French and Italian troops are currently stationed in Niger to train its soldiers, while France also conducts joint operations. But the threat to Bazoum has raised concerns that Niger could also turn away from the West. On Thursday, several hundred people gathered in the capital of Niamey and chanted support for Wagner while waving Russian flags. A day earlier, protesters had voiced support for Bazoum. Underscoring the importance of Niger to the West, Blinken said Thursday that he had spoken with the president, saying that he "made clear that we strongly support him as the democratically elected president of the country." Blinken, who was in New Zealand, repeated the U.S. condemnation of the mutiny and said his team was in close contact with officials in France and Africa. On Wednesday morning, members of the presidential guard surrounded Bazoum's house and detained him. The mutinous soldiers, who call themselves the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Country, took to state television and announced they had seized control because of deteriorating security and poor economic and social governance in the nation of 25 million people. They said they had dissolved the constitution, suspended all institutions, and closed all the borders.
The attempted coup was reportedly led by the head of the presidential guard, General Tchiani, who the president had planned to relieve from his position, Niger analysts say. According to someone close to the president who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak about the situation, the president has not and will not resign and is safe in his residence. "The hard-won achievements will be safeguarded. All Nigerians who love democracy and freedom will see to it," Bazoum tweeted early Thursday morning. In their statement Wednesday, the group of Nigerien political groups said the "country, faced with insecurity, terrorism and the challenges of underdevelopment, cannot afford to be distracted." In an interview with the Associated Press in December, Bazoum said that while there's always the possibility of a coup in the face of the extremist threat, Niger had the situation under control. "We are doing well in managing our own situation," he said. The international community strongly condemned the coup Thursday. French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna tweeted that France is concerned about the events in Niger and following the situation closely. France "firmly condemns any attempt to take power by force," the minister said. The European Union's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, tweeted that Niger is "an essential partner" for the EU in the Sahel and that the region's "destabilization would serve no one's interests." He reaffirmed the EU's full support of Bazoum.

UN Chief Antonio Guterres Warns Earth in ‘Era of Global Boiling’
AFP/27 Jul 2023
AFP published this article: UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that the era of "global boiling" has begun. The United Nations’ secretary-general Antonio Guterres has warned that the era of “global boiling” has already started. His comments come after weeks of intense heatwaves and wildfires felt all around the world recently. UN scientists has also predicted that this July will be recorded as the hottest month ever recorded across the globe. Speaking from New York, Guterres said it has been a “cruel summer” for countries in Europe, China and North America. He also said that this month’s extreme heat worldwide which will “shatter records across the board”.He said: “For the entire planet, it is a disaster. For scientists it is unequivocal. Humans are to blame. All this is entirely consistent with predictions and repeated warnings.”Guterres continued: “The only surprise is the speed of the change. Climate change is here. It is terrifying. And it is just the beginning.“The era of global warming has ended. The era of global boiling has arrived.”He pointed out that the air is “unbreathable”, the heat is “unbearable” while the fossil fuel profits and climate inaction are “unacceptable”. He called for world leaders to stop hesitating and making excusing, or waiting for others to move first - “there is simply no more time for that”. Guterres continued: “Ambitious renewable energy goals must be in line with 1.5 degree limits. “We must reach net zero electricity by 2035 in developed countries and 2040 elsewhere, as we work to bring affordable electricity to everyone on Earth. “We also need action from leaders beyond governments.” He said extreme weather was becoming the “new normal”, and countries have to adapt - and introduce climate warning systems. But, he did add a more optimistic note, saying: “It is still possible to limit global temperature rise to 1.5C and avoid the very worst of climate change - but only with dramatic immediate climate action.”This July was about 1.5C hotter than preindustrial averages for this month - so it could be a taster of the temperatures which global leaders are aiming for by 2050. However, at the moment, some scientists believe we will overshoot even that, and global temperatures will increase by even more before the end of the decade. This is far from the first time the secretary-general has spoken up about climate change. In December, he claimed humanity was becoming a “weapon of mass extinction”, and “treating nature like a toilet” as so many species may be able to disappear forever. In September, he urged rich countries to impose tax on fossil fuel firms “feasting” on windfall profits.

Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 27-28/2023
Out of Outrage: Where is the U.S. Response?
Pete Hoekstra/Gatestone Institute/July 27, 2023
Despite COVID having killed more than 1.13 million Americans as of mid-June 2023, and with a cost to the U.S. economy estimated to be $14 trillion — yes trillion — by the end of 2023, where is the united outrage among American citizens over the role of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in the pandemic?
In these [Chinese] camps, Uyghurs face indoctrination, sterilization, and forced labor.... The situation is so horrific that both the Trump Administration and the Biden Administration have labeled it a genocide.
[T]he CCP has also been sending across America's southern border groups of single men of military age, with the apparent aim of sabotaging American installations on the first day of a conflict if the U.S. tries to counter a Chinese offensive on Taiwan.
With all of these revelations and threatening activities, there seems to be dismayingly little concern from the public as well as from the political and business leadership, despite a growing plurality that views China as an enemy to the United States rather than as a strategic "competitor."
Have Americans become so tired of the "outrage of the week"... that it... has confused the American people on the difference between real threats -- such as the Chinese Navy overtaking the U.S. Navy while 37% of U.S. attack submarines are out of order -- and lesser threats, such as pronouns?
Many American political, tech and business leaders are funding the China's military and seem casually indifferent about the deadly-serious existential threat from the CCP.
As some analysts have stated, Chinese President Xi Jinping and other CCP leaders "recall a world in which China was dominant and other states related to them as supplicants to a superior, as vassals that came to Beijing bearing tribute." – Graham Allison, The Atlantic, May 31, 2017.
Restoring China to that position of dominance is the long-term goal of Xi and the CCP. This is the real threat that should unite Americans to face the challenge head-on to maintain America's leadership position in the world. This position is one where there will be respect for human rights, economic freedom and security, and where the U.S. serves as a beacon for representative government; individual freedoms; property rights; equal justice under the law (a bit askew at the present) and above all, the right to free speech.
Many American political, tech and business leaders are funding the China's military and seem casually indifferent about the deadly-serious existential threat from the Chinese Communist Party. Pictured: DF-17 hypersonic missiles at a military parade in Beijing, China, on October 1, 2019. (Photo by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)
After years watching both major political parties in America foster public outrage to advance their political goals, someone recently commented that he was "out of outrage" -- totally over it.
Polling by Pew Research shows that he may not be alone. Nearly 40% of Americans say they wish they had more political parties to choose from, with that number rising to nearly 50% among younger Americans. Favorable views of either party come in approximately at a paltry 40%.
One problem appears to be the grandiose claims made by both parties that stoke partisan anger but fail to deliver the anticipated results. Consider the claims that have been made by politicians and others since the 2016 presidential election alone:
After years of asserting collusion between President Donald Trump and Russia, the Durham Report and the Mueller probe both found that Russian collusion had been a hoax. Not only that, but that the people creating the hoax had known all along that the charges were false. More recently, on the right, explosive claims by House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer and Senator Chuck Grassley that an informant alleges tapes exist showing then-Vice President Joe Biden being bribed by Ukrainian businesspeople have not been substantiated — at least not yet.
Throw in the false claim, made by 51 former U.S. intelligence officials, that Hunter Biden's laptop "had all the earmarks" of Russian disinformation, as well as repeated assertions that COVID-19 originated in a Chinese wet market rather than in the Wuhan Institute of Virology -- despite early reported evidence of gene manipulation that is not "naturally-occurring" -- and one can see why Americans are fed up with questionable claims across the political spectrum and why there is a huge loss of confidence in our institutions and politicians.
This is a sizeable problem for our nation: when Americans need to find outrage the most, they may not be able to muster any. That challenge is particularly acute when it comes to our foreign policy and national security.
While an overwhelming majority of Americans view China negatively, the U.S. response to the COVID pandemic and other actions by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) directly targeting and threatening vital U.S. interests has been muted at best. Democrats join Republicans in the House of Representatives condemning China's spy balloon. With two-thirds of Americans, on a bipartisan basis, believing that COVID did indeed leak from a Chinese lab, one would expect to see a rallying cry from the left and right to unite factions in common cause to confront the CCP regime to force a change in its malign behavior.
Yet, there has been little movement beyond competing bills introduced by Senators Tom Cotton and Josh Hawley to revoke the vote that granted China Permanent Normal Trade Relations Status in 2000 (Disclosure: as a Member of Congress, I voted against PNTR). The consensus political expectation at the time was that the CCP would be pressured by the opening of trade globally to become freer and more democratic and to align with the rules-based international order. Instead of becoming more like the U.S. and the West, it is obvious the China moved in the exact opposite direction.
Just look once again at COVID and the CCP's response to the pandemic. Recent analysis continues to bolster the case that the virus most likely did escape from the Wuhan laboratory. Despite the fact the Wuhan Institute of Virology was notionally civilian and received U.S. taxpayer funds from the National Institutes of Health, the Wuhan lab in reality was under control of the Chinese military.
China's communist government, from the beginning, was involved in a massive effort to hide the severity of the COVID threat. The CCP lied about its human-to-human transmissibility, and even about China being the origin of the virus. While the CCP lied to the world about COVID, it leveraged its coverup to stockpile personal protective equipment in China, and closed down domestic travel within China, "but pushed foreign travel." When other countries objected, China accused them of racism.
Despite COVID having killed more than 1.13 million Americans as of mid-June 2023, and with a cost to the U.S. economy estimated to be $14 trillion — yes trillion — by the end of 2023, where is the united outrage among American citizens over the role of the CCP in the pandemic? Besides death and economic carnage, the COVID pandemic unleashed by China also has had a huge negative psychological impact on millions of Americans and taken a massive toll on our children's education.
When it comes to human rights, China's record, unfortunately, is just as atrocious. The CCP continues to brutally persecute China's Uyghur minority. Uyghurs are prohibited from practicing their religion freely: a massive system has been set up where it is estimated that more than one million Uyghurs are forcibly detained. In these camps, Uyghurs face indoctrination, sterilization, and forced labor; meanwhile the Uyghur people in China are subject to mass surveillance. The situation is so horrific that both the Trump Administration and the Biden Administration have labeled it a genocide.
Then there is the brazen theft by the CCP of U.S. intellectual property (IP). The U.S. House of Representatives identified multiple examples of IP infringement affecting companies such as Dupont, Micron, and Akhan Semiconductor. The FBI estimates that from $225-$600 billion in IP is stolen from the U.S. every year, and not surprisingly this has long-term consequences for the U.S. economy and American workers. Often, it results in Chinese companies taking leading positions in industries and technologies that originated in the U.S. or would otherwise be based here if the Chinese did not use forced labor to provide goods and services. It is no wonder that that China's economy continues to grow faster than the U.S. economy — China shortcuts its research and development costs both by stealing IP from the U.S. and in effect using state-sanctioned slavery.
Consider, too, the CCP's aggressive military and espionage efforts against the U.S. In the last six months, some of the most sensitive military and nuclear sites in the U.S. were overflown by a Chinese spy balloon; it was revealed China has a secret spy base in Cuba and is planning a joint military training facility with the island nation that sits 100 miles off the U.S. coast.
The Justice Department announced in April that it arrested two people for operating an illegal Chinese police station in New York City. Although they been ordered to close, as of this writing there are reportedly "at least six more" in the U.S. Similarly, the CCP has not closed its Confucius Institutes, as requested, but instead, just renamed them.
Lastly, the CCP has also been sending across America's southern border groups of single men of military age, with the apparent aim of sabotaging American installations on the first day of a conflict if the U.S. tries to counter a Chinese offensive on Taiwan.
With all of these revelations and threatening activities, there seems to be dismayingly little concern from the public as well as from the political and business leadership (here, here, here and here), despite a growing plurality that views China as an enemy to the United States rather than as a strategic "competitor."
This lack of outrage is likely why senior Biden administration officials felt free to openly fight over who should be the first to go to China after Secretary of State Antony Blinken's initial visit was canceled. It is also probably why, on Blinken's recent visit to China, he only seemingly made passing reference to the CCP's human rights record; its role in the COVID pandemic coverup; its continued theft of U.S. intellectual property, and its aggressive military and intelligence stance against the U.S. Instead, the Biden Administration has focused on rapprochement and future talks, and U.S. businesses have promoted so-called "environmental, social and governance" issues here but have ignored -- and often enabled -- China's genocidal human rights record.
Also highly questionable is that all of the Biden Administration's visits so far have been "home games" for the CCP: U.S. officials make their way to China to pay homage, but CCP officials do not have to "bother" coming to the U.S.
Have Americans become so tired of the "outrage of the week," foisted upon us by our political elites and the media, that it has led to a dysfunctional political system and has confused the American people on the difference between real threats -- such as the Chinese Navy overtaking the U.S. Navy while 37% of U.S. attack submarines are out of order -- and lesser threats, such as pronouns?
Many American political, tech and business leaders are funding the China's military and seem casually indifferent about the deadly-serious existential threat from the CCP. As some analysts have stated, Chinese President Xi Jinping and other CCP leaders "recall a world in which China was dominant and other states related to them as supplicants to a superior, as vassals that came to Beijing bearing tribute."
Restoring China to that position of dominance is the long-term goal of Xi and the CCP. This is the real threat that should unite Americans to face the challenge head-on to maintain America's leadership position in the world. This position is one where there will be respect for human rights, economic freedom and security, and where the U.S. serves as a beacon for representative government; individual freedoms; property rights; equal justice under the law (a bit askew at the present) and above all, the right to free speech.
*Peter Hoekstra was US Ambassador to the Netherlands during the Trump administration. He served 18 years in the U.S. House of Representatives representing the second district of Michigan and served as Chairman and Ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee and Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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A Presidential Prayer That Could Save Our Nation
Lawrence Kadish/Gatestone Institute./July 27, 2023
A master of war but a passionate advocate for peace, Dwight "Ike" Eisenhower stood in the shadow of the Capitol on January 20, 1953, and became the first president to draft and deliver his own prayer prior to taking the oath of office. In his pledge to preserve, defend, and protect the Constitution of the United States he invoked the Almighty to remind a national audience of the challenge before them and the responsibility of every elected official, regardless of party affiliation.
Today, in a time of enormous political turmoil enveloping our nation, it would be appropriate for both sides of the aisle to consider what this winning Republican candidate for the highest office in the land had to say some 70 years ago. It offers lessons for a nation that, today, needs to retreat from political extremism or face a threatened future:
"As we stand here, at this moment, my associates in the Executive Branch of government join me in beseeching that Thou will make full and complete our dedication to the service of the people in this throng and their fellow citizens everywhere.
"Give us, we pray, the power to discern clearly right from wrong and allow all our words and actions to be governed thereby and by the laws of this land.
"Especially we pray that our concern shall be for all the people, regardless of station, race or calling. May cooperation be permitted and be the mutual aim of those who hold to differing political beliefs, so that all may work for the good of our beloved country and for Thy glory. Amen."
These words were spoken at a time when the Soviet Union was on the march to create an "Iron Curtain" that enslaved millions, the Chinese communists had ruthlessly secured power, domestic enemies of democracy and free speech were destroying livelihoods here in America, and when Eisenhower would later need to call in federal troops to allow African American students to attend classes in Little Rock, Arkansas. Yet we were, by and large, a nation that respected each other's political differences, centrist in most of our politics, with citizens who recognized the blessings of democracy. Today, those traditional values have broken down.
Mark Levin, a seven-time New York Times bestselling author and broadcast host, raises serious questions about our current political state of the union in his latest book, The Democrat Party Hates America. Regardless of one's enrollment, he raises legitimate questions regarding the current ideology of this party and why so many view it with suspicion and more than a little fear. Some suggest it has been torn from its roots, now a captive of a progressive cadre who despise the very country that Eisenhower cherished.
In Eisenhower's inaugural address, he posed a question that Levin and others are justified in asking today. Eisenhower rhetorically asked:
"How far have we come in man's long pilgrimage from darkness toward the light? Are we nearing the light -- a day of freedom and of peace for all mankind? Or are the shadows of another night closing in upon us?"
Having fought the Nazis in World War II, Eisenhower would warn that the most dangerous threat to our nation resides not from external enemies but from within ourselves. It is a message that needs to be heard and heeded by every American proud of their nation's past and confident in its future.
*Lawrence Kadish serves on the Board of Governors of Gatestone Institute.
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Rewriting Russia’s Pursuits in the Middle East
ARMENAK TOKMAJYAN/Carnegie/July 27/2023
In an interview, Leonid Nersisyan examines Moscow’s stakes in the Levant and North Africa in light of the stalemated war in Ukraine.
Leonid Nersisyan is a defense analyst focusing on the foreign and military policy of Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States region. He also follows the defense industry in general, as well as armed conflict and arms control. Nersisyan is a research fellow at the Applied Policy Research Institute of Armenia and a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Birmingham in the United Kingdom. Diwan interviewed Nersisyan in July to get his perspective on how the Ukraine war and its repercussions have affected Russia’s defense posture in the Middle East.
Armenak Tokmajyan: We are more than a year into the Ukraine conflict and the end doesn’t seem to be near. How has the conflict impacted Russia’s military presence abroad, especially in the Middle East?
Leonid Nersisyan: The Russo-Ukrainian war began affecting Russia’s military presence abroad after its initial plans for a blitzkrieg failed and the conflict was transformed into a protracted war of attrition. It is no secret that most of the best units of the Wagner mercenary group were withdrawn from Syria, Libya, and various African countries, leaving behind a minimal presence. These redeployed units, with their experienced commanders, became the matrix for growth of the Wagner group in Ukraine, which at the time of the infamous “Bakhmut meatgrinder” earlier this year had up to 50,000 personnel.
Aside from Wagner personnel, there is another major trend visible related to Russian troops and bases abroad. The best officers and contractor servicemen have been redeployed to Ukraine, while less capable and wounded personnel, as well as conscripts, are filling up their places in foreign bases. At the same time, the equipment in these foreign bases remains almost intact, as their numbers are in general irrelevant for the scale of hostilities in Ukraine. For example, withdrawing aircraft from the Hmeimim airbase in Syria (where there are only six multirole fighters, sixteen frontline bombers, sixteen military helicopters, etc.) will not change much on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, while doing so will risk damaging Russian interest in Middle East. It’s significant that when it comes to Syria, there is even growing interest from Moscow in pursuing maintenance and refueling operations at the Tartous naval base, as Turkey is limiting usage of the Bosporus in wartime for Russian combat ships. That would allow Russia to keep part of its fleet in Mediterranean.
Russia’s interest in maintaining troops in foreign countries is not waning. While the Russian Defense Ministry has redeployed contractors and professional peacekeepers from Nagorno-Karabakh and Transdniestria to Ukraine, Russia does not seem to be preparing to abandon these missions. That said, sources suggest that the Nagorno-Karabakh peacekeeping mission is some 15 percent understaffed because of the conflict in Ukraine. Nonetheless, in April 2023, the Russian State Duma approved a new bill that allowed conscripts to be part of peacekeeping missions abroad. Now Moscow can man these missions with conscripts.
AT: In light of Wagner’s failed rebellion in Russia and Yevgeny Prigozhin’s departure to Belarus, how do you see the mercenary group’s future? Also, how do you think this new situation will impact Wagner’s presence abroad, especially in the Middle East and North Africa?
LN: It’s obvious, that Wagner won’t receive the major state contracts from Russia that it received during the Russian-Ukrainian war. Moreover, there have been suggestions the Russian Foreign Ministry is actively trying to push Wagner troops out of the countries where they have a presence. Some have even speculated that Wagner may possibly have lost some trust from its Libyan and Syrian clients. At the same time, information about a meeting that took place on June 29 between Prigozhin and Wagner commanders with Russian President Vladimir Putin shows there is still potential for Wagner to work on behalf of the Russian state, though its resources are likely to remain limited, and it will be deployed outside Russia.
Against this background, the future of Wagner looks more positive than was first perceived in the early days after the rebellion, but it is almost certain the company won’t ever be given the resources it had in 2022. As for the prospects of Wagner’s presence abroad, the group probably will be able to save and maybe even grow its forces in Africa, while Middle Eastern markets are under risk. Syria has very strong cooperation and coordination with the Russian state and won’t keep Wagner on its territory if Moscow cancels its contracts with the group.
AT: Russia has been a major arms exporter for decades. How has the war in Ukraine affected the country’s arms manufacturing industry and its exports of weapons?
LN: The transformation of the conflict into a protracted war, with huge losses in terms of equipment, changed the priorities for Russia’s defense industry. Now, it is much more focused on raising the volumes of production for the local market, rather than for export. There are signs that the export of many types of Russian equipment slowed down or stopped after the beginning of the war in Ukraine. For example, there are photos of T-90S tanks modified for export that are being used by the Russian armed forces themselves in Ukraine, which means that clients are not getting them. Another telling example comes from Armenia, Russia’s Common Security Treaty Organization ally. Armenia ordered large volumes of armaments in August 2021 and still hasn’t received anything, which has pushed Yerevan to turn to new suppliers, in particular India and France.
Another trend in the Russia defense industry involves simplifying the production process, with the aim of producing larger volumes in shorter timeframes. For example, some of the T-72B3 and T-80BVM tanks are no longer being equipped with the best available Sosna-U sights—a tank gunner’s sight produced in Belarus—and instead are being equipped with the much simpler 1PN96MT-02 sights. That approach disconnects the production rate of tanks from the production rate of the complex Sosna-U, which is limited and takes a longer time to produce.
Using the same rationale, the Russian Defense Ministry began showing a much more flexible approach to procurement in wartime. For example, the UMPK device, which is used to modernize standard FAB-500 gravity bombs by transforming them into satellite-guided bombs (like the United States’ Joint Direct Attack Munition sets) looks like an early prototype rather than a serial production weapon, but it is still being procured and used.
AT: Turkey’s military industry has grown significantly in the past decade. Is Turkey on the path to becoming a major arms exporter? Do Russia and Turkey compete for the same markets?
LN: In general, the Turkish defense industry has actively grown in the last decade. The value of Turkish armament exports surpassed $4 billion in 2022. According to a SIPRI report from March 2023, records from 2018–2022 place Turkey in eleventh place in terms of the share of global arms exports, with the top three countries being the United States (40 percent), Russia (16 percent), and France (11 percent). According to the same report, Turkey’s top three buyers were Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman, while Russia’s top buyers were India, China, and Egypt.
Turkey’s success comes against a backdrop of the commercial success of the Bayraktar TB2 drone, a military-class unarmed aerial vehicle, which was very aggressively promoted based on its performance in Syria, Libya, and Nagorno Karabakh. It was also thought that the Bayraktar could make a difference in Ukraine. However, the war there is showing that the drone was heavily over-advertised and that such large combat drones are highly vulnerable to air defenses. Thus, the Turkish approach to developing and selling large drones, including Bayraktar, Akinci, and Anka, may bring in less revenue than planned in the future. In general, Turkey is not yet a serious rival of Russia in the defense market, but this could change in the future.
AT: How would you describe Russia’s relations with Israel today, especially in light of Moscow’s rapprochement with Iran and reports that Russian aircraft tried to disrupt a joint U.S.-Israeli military exercise over the Mediterranean last January?
LN: Russian-Israeli relations can be defined as a “cold partnership.” It is obvious to Russia that Israel is an ally of the United States, and the West in general, although the fact that it is not directly supporting Ukraine militarily yet is considered very positive. The same can be said of Syria. It is obvious that Israel is no friend of Moscow or Damascus, but this rivalry is viewed only as part of local competition which is not necessarily making the countries enemies.
From the Israeli side, the views are likely similar. Entering into a full-fledge confrontation with Russia won’t bring much benefit, even as direct Russian support for Israel’s regional enemies, including Iran, may create many new problems.
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

Israel’s New Law Holds Implications for Security and U.S. Relations
David Makovsky/The Washington Institute/Jul 27/2023
A closer look at the domestic dynamics behind the legislature’s vote sheds light on whether and when it might affect Israel’s military readiness and relationship with Washington.
On July 24, the Israeli Knesset approved a highly controversial law that will empower the government to make policy decisions and appointments outside of judicial scrutiny. Passed by a 64-0 margin with the opposition walking out of the final vote, the law removes the Supreme Court’s ability to use the “reasonableness” standard—a common-law principle that provided judicial oversight by comparing government actions to what a “reasonable” authority might do. Many consider this the first step in a far-ranging plan—as articulated by Justice Minister Yariv Levin—to further constrain the judiciary and effectively concentrate power in the executive branch.
Furor over the overhaul has dominated the Israeli political scene for months, spawning the largest grassroots opposition movement in the country’s history. The massive weekly demonstrations involving hundreds of thousands of protesters have been defined by the idea that Israel’s democratic, Jewish character should not be altered without broad public consensus. The movement is also driven by the realization that Israel does not have a constitution, but rather a set of Basic Laws, which do not require a supermajority to be amended as the U.S. Constitution does. Hence, many citizens are using the street to express what a plethora of polls have repeatedly shown—that the government does not have majority public support for unilateral legislative actions of this sort.
The Domestic Political Angle
Since the current government’s inception last December, various hard-right partners in Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s coalition have pressed him for this judicial overhaul in order to advance their goals (e.g., unrestricted West Bank settlement growth) or preserve their privileges (e.g., ultraorthodox exemption from military conscription). His aides privately say he had no choice but to put together such a coalition because centrist parties would not join him amid his ongoing corruption trial. Yet opponents say he assembled this government precisely to extricate himself from the trial, and some of his decisions seemed driven more by political self-interest than necessity.
For example, no one forced him to replace the previous justice minister with Levin, an official who has devoted his professional life to ensuring that the judiciary cannot be an effective check on executive power. Levin blunted most attempts at compromise on this issue over the past few months, fueling perceptions that he was more in charge than Netanyahu. Perhaps this was why the prime minister defied his doctor’s call for rest after having pacemaker surgery this weekend, appearing at the seminal vote in an apparent bid to dispel rumors about his health. In any case, Levin personifies the opposition’s concerns that this coalition is bent on forcing its policies through.
The pre-vote push for compromise had been led by figures such as President Isaac Herzog and Histadrut trade union chief Arnon Bar-David, who focused on diluting the bill and securing a commitment that further judicial changes would only happen after lengthy efforts to reach broad consensus. Their failure illustrates the total lack of trust between coalition and opposition leaders, whose rivalry has become even more bitter since Netanyahu reneged on his 2020 commitment to rotate the premiership with National Unity party head Benny Gantz. It also shows the difficulty they face in trying to sell compromise to their respective political bases, who have hardened their positions over months of protests and political strife.
Indeed, not a single member of Netanyahu’s coalition broke ranks by opposing the vote or abstaining, showing that his government is both politically cohesive and aware of the steep personal penalty for dissenting in the present environment. For example, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant publicly stated that the legislation should be more broad-based, but he did not try to force action toward that end by threatening to resign. Sources say he feared that if he insisted on this stance, Netanyahu would simply fire him again as he did in March, when Gallant called for a pause in the judicial overhaul—only this time there would be no reprieve spurred by public pressure. Gallant also apparently feared that his replacement would be an ideologue such as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who has no serious military background and is solely focused on annexing the West Bank.
What’s Next?
The opposition will now cast their hopes on several possible developments. For one, they have lodged multiple appeals against the new law at the Supreme Court, potentially triggering a standoff over Israel’s Basic Laws. The court has never disqualified a Basic Law before, but it has also never faced such a deep challenge to its authority. If the court disqualifies the new legislation, it would put law enforcement agencies into a quandary over who to listen to—the court or the government? When Mossad director David Barnea was reportedly asked about such a standoff during an internal agency meeting held the morning of the vote, he stated that he would fall on the “right side of history” but did not elaborate on what exactly that meant.
Opposition members are also hoping that their success in the polls will keep growing amid civil strife against the government and ongoing economic deterioration (e.g., in foreign high-tech investment) due to the overhaul plan. In this sense, the fight over the judiciary’s role will likely provide an organizing principle for the next election. Gantz pledged this week that the new law will be reversed in the future.
Meanwhile, speculation has spread that Netanyahu will at some point either fire the current independent-minded attorney-general, Gali Baharav-Miara, or split her duties so that he can appoint a solicitor-general more inclined to end the corruption case against him. Either move would spark massive public backlash—in fact, many Israelis already see the vote in apocalyptic terms, as a severing of the social contract whereby their country remains anchored in Western liberal moorings and their prime minister remains attentive to the broader public’s views.
National Security Implications
Among the most immediate security issues to address are protests by military personnel who oppose the new law. In the days before the vote, over 1,100 Israeli Air Force (IAF) personnel—half of them pilots—announced that they would refuse to show up for voluntary reserve duty if the measure passed. They were joined by over 10,000 other members of the Israel Defense Forces reserves, including members of elite intelligence, cyber, and commando units. Some individuals have already acted on this threat, though their precise numbers are unclear. Will these boycotts spread further, perhaps even into active-duty personnel?
Such threats are especially impactful in the IAF. As officials have publicly indicated on multiple occasions, around 60-70 percent of Israeli airstrikes are conducted by reservists, and the IAF relies on these personnel more heavily than other branches do, especially pilots. If reserve crews do not perform the regular, intensive training required for these strikes, they may not be able to deploy for future missions. Hence, it is unclear how quickly the boycotts will affect Israel’s military capacity if training is put on hold. The IDF has indicated that effects on its readiness will be felt within weeks, while Chief of Staff Herzi Halevy wrote an open letter to troops warning that Israel “will not be able to exist as a country” if military cohesion is broken. Officials also worry that enemies such as Iran and Hezbollah will seize on Israel’s current divisions as an opportunity to increase their attacks. Accordingly, opposition leaders Gantz and Yair Lapid echoed Netanyahu in asking reservists to continue reporting for duty—at least until the Supreme Court has a chance to weigh in on the new law.
U.S. Bilateral Consequences
Shortly after the law passed, the White House issued a statement calling the vote’s slim passage and highly polarized setting “unfortunate,” reiterating President Biden’s belief that such changes should only be done amid “broader consensus.” The administration has had to thread this political needle for months, with the president reiterating his “ironclad” commitment to Israel’s security and his decades of love for the country while simultaneously expressing discomfort over many of the current coalition’s decisions. Biden believes that Israel’s judiciary in its present form strengthens the country, while controversial legislation can only weaken it. The same difficulties underlie his decision not to invite Netanyahu back to the White House since the prime minister returned to power in December (Netanyahu announced last week that a U.S. visit of some sort was in the works, but the details were fuzzy, and any such plans may be affected by the Knesset vote).
To be sure, Biden has correctly and clearly indicated that bilateral security cooperation is “unshakeable” and therefore immune from policy differences between the two governments. Yet other issues may be affected by their current disagreement.
For instance, some believe the dispute could spur a tougher U.S. approach on settlement expansion in the West Bank. Yet the administration will almost certainly wait to see if the new law results in problematic activities on that front before taking action.
Elsewhere, Biden has apparently been pressing for a three-way breakthrough between the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. Yet will he do so with the same energy if he believes Netanyahu—who desperately wants that deal—spurned his pleas for compromise on the judicial issue? Some argue that Biden will press forward anyway because the deal remains in America’s interest (given the need to maintain gaps between Riyadh and China) and his own political interest (given the potential boost it could lend his reelection campaign). Yet others point out that Biden has unique leverage on this matter because neither Riyadh nor Netanyahu is popular with significant portions of the U.S. Democratic Party base.
In the longer term, Washington is no doubt wondering whether the Knesset’s decision is an aberration tied to the current political environment or a turning point in Israeli democracy. The vibrancy of the decades-long bilateral relationship is substantially based on the fact that Americans and Israelis share core values, not just military and economic interests. Any perceived erosion in these values could gradually affect the broad political base that supports the close relationship. Hence, supporters of U.S.-Israeli relations need to maintain focus on shared values as much as shared interests.
*David Makovsky is the Ziegler Distinguished Fellow at The Washington Institute and director of the Koret Project on Arab-Israel Relations.

The Broken Record Destroying Sudan
Osman Mirghani/Asharq Al Awsat/ July 27/2023
Even as the war continues to take a toll on the Sudanese people, the civil forces that had played a prominent role during the four-year transition period continue to operate in the way they always have. They remain divided, constantly squabbling and trying to outmaneuver one another. Indeed, the Alliance for Freedom and Change - Central Council and the FFC-Democratic Bloc are holding separate talks in Cairo. Other talks are also being held simultaneously in Togo, between forces from Darfur, high-ranking Rapid Support Forces officials, and figures affiliated with the Forces for Freedom and Change.
Add to this the tense disputes between the FFC - Central Council and the Islamists, and between the FFC - Democratic Bloc and the Kazin loyalists (Muslim brotherhood), which overshadowed dialogue on how to end the war, and you get a full picture of how intractable the situation is in Sudan.
These schisms and the constant bickering among Sudan’s political forces do not bring us any closer to ending the war. Indeed, fragmentation fuels the conflict and could perpetuate it. If their stated desire to establish a ceasefire is sincere, these forces should start by resolving the disputes that undercut the transitional period and led to this tragic war. To this end, the parties should hold extensive and inclusive talks. I believe that all parties, with the exception of the dissolved National Congress Party, which the people have already overthrown through their revolution.
If the political forces overcome their differences and endorse a clear joint roadmap for how Sudan should be governed, I am almost certain that the war would end swiftly. Such a roadmap would pave the way for continuing the transition that had been ongoing before the war. It would also help the country fix the damage left by the calamity that has befallen the country - a monumental task by any standard.
The war has changed things, and the state of affairs it has created demands a broad reassessment. The fact is that returning to the same point we had been on the eve of the war is impossible. This includes the “Framework Agreement,” which was one of the causes of the conflict. The consensus required for the next phase will not be built by blocs talking only amongst themselves. Dialogue that gives rise to a clear roadmap, endorsed by as a coalition as possible, for ending the disastrous war and laying the groundwork for a more stable transition.
The challenging circumstances that the country is undergoing demand open hearts and minds. It requires consensus around how to reach the light at the end of the tunnel. First and foremost, we need an agreement on how to end the war, which is the top Sudanese citizens’ top priority right now. After that, the forces can discuss the framework of the transitional phase and what follows. Political forces pivoting away from their exclusionary mindset is a necessary prerequisite for this. This means broadening dialogue, whereby the Islamists who have seriously reevaluated their dismal governance should be allowed to contribute to building consensus with other forces. Such a consensus would stabilize the country and lead it to governance through the ballot box and nothing else.
Broadening the dialogue also means directly communicating with the military and understanding their vision for how to end the war. At this point, any attempt to bypass the army will only complicate matters. Indeed, if the Forces of Freedom and Change are willing to meet Rapid Support Forces officials, why shouldn’t they hold talks with the military top brass to discuss the country’s problems and potential solutions?
It’s clear that the relationship between the Forces of Freedom and Change is a tense one. They never trusted one another, which undercut the transitional period. They have become even more wary of one another since the war broke out. Indeed, under the slogan “no to war,” the Forces of Freedom and Change see the military and the Rapid Support Forces on an equal footing; they have even been accused of favoring the Rapid Support Forces. Some have even gone further, alleging that some of its leaders have been colluding with the Rapid Support Forces and encouraged them to launch their coup.
The truth is that FFC’s stance cost the coalition a lot of its support. After having enthusiastically supported them in the past, many Sudanese are now openly criticizing them on social media. For these people, the equation is simple. On one side, there are forces targeting civilians and resorting to abhorrent tactics: bringing the conflict to their neighborhoods, using them as human shields, violating the sanctity of their homes, and wreaking havoc on the country. On the other side, there’s an army fighting to drive them out, demanding that the Rapid Support Forces leave citizens’ homes and public facilities alone. Indeed, citizens feel safe whenever they see the army forces in their streets and cheer for its victories.
In an attempt to push back against widespread criticisms and accusations that they are biased in favor of the Rapid Support Forces, and have remained silent about RSF human rights violations, the Forces of Freedom and Change included a “timid” condemnation of the “murders, looting and theft committed by the (Rapid Support Forces)” in their final statement in Cairo. I say it is “timid” because the statement condemns, in the same sentence, the armed forces for “crimes of aerial bombing, arbitrary arrests of activists, and protecting the activities and events of remnants of the overthrown regime.”
Moreover, the proposal to merge the warring armies put forward in the statement of the Forces of Freedom and Change complicates its relationship with the military. In fact, it pits the FFC against a large segment of the Sudanese population, who are not completely opposed to the Rapid Support Forces and are praying for their defeat after being subjected to their crimes.
All these complexities and contradictions bring us back to the necessity of holding transparent dialogue. All the issues facing the country today in light of this war, and how it can move forward, should be discussed. This won’t be achieved by traveling between capitals, holding meetings here and there, or issuing statements to score political points, and it certainly won’t be achieved not by soliciting foreign solutions.
The suffering of the Sudanese people is aggravating. Their hardships have tested their ability to go on, and this drastic situation demands that all forces broaden their perspectives and the scope of dialogue. All parties must move beyond their disagreements, which have wreaked havoc on Sudan. The goal should be to crystalize a clear vision and a joint roadmap that leads to radical solutions to chronic problems and ongoing conflicts, thereby safeguarding the country’s security and stability.