Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 17-18/2023
Five-nation group on Lebanon holds 'positive' talks in Doha
Naharnet/July 17, 2023
Representatives of KSA, Qatar, Egypt, France and the U.S. met Monday in Doha to try to find a solution to the Lebanese presidential impasse, before French Envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian's return to Lebanon. Media reports said the talks were "positive" and "serious in seeking solutions" and that the attendees supported Le Drian's proposal for a dialogue to break the presidential impasse. On Sunday, French Ambassador to Lebanon Anne Grillo said Le Drian's mission is very clear, it is "to create conditions for a peaceful dialogue between the Lebanese parties who do not speak to each other."Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea had said last week he would not waste time on a vain dialogue with Hezbollah and asked Le Drian not to call for it. On Monday, al-Akhbar newspaper said that the LF party is meeting with other opposition forces to agree on a unified stance against Le Drian's dialogue. Also on Monday, another daily, Asharq al-Awsat, reported that the U.S. has warned France about its support for Franjieh, due to which it would fail to be a mediator between Lebanese parliamentary blocs.

Five nation group on Lebanon says to penalise those obstructing presidential election
AMMAN (Reuters)/Mon, July 17, 2023
The five-nation group on Lebanon, which comprises the U.S., France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt, said on Monday they had discussed several measures against politicians and groups who were obstructing the election of a new president. Last month parliament failed - for the 12th time - to fill the post, reserved for a Maronite Christian in Lebanon's sectarian system and vacant since the term of the Hezbollah-allied Michel Aoun ended in October. The meeting in Doha attended by Lebanon's key Western and Arab donors and allies said it was imperative a president was elected and urged Lebanon's leaders to overcome a deepening institutional paralysis in a country where one of the world's worst economic crises has been festering for years. "We discussed several options including taking measures against those who obstruct progress in this area," said the communique, without elaborating on the steps. The stand-off has played out along sectarian lines, with Christian parties supporting Jihad Azour, the IMF's Middle East director and an ex-finance minister, and Shi'ite factions Hezbollah and Amal against him. The stand-off has laid bare Lebanon's deep splits, with theheavily armed Iran-backed Hezbollah deploying its political might against Azour's bid to fill the vacant presidency, while continuing to campaign for its ally - Suleiman Frangieh. Last week the European Parliament also blamed Hezbollah and Amal and their allies for resorting to what it said were unconstitutional tactics to prevent the conclusion of the vote and deepening the political deadlock. Lawmakers from Hezbollah and allies withdrew from the last session to obstruct a bid by the main Christian parties to elect Azour. Hezbollah and its allies have close ties to Syria and Iran, while their opponents in the Christian and Sunni Muslim communities traditionally look to the West and Sunni-led Gulf Arab states. Washington has also warned its administration was considering sanctions on Lebanese officials for their continued obstruction of the election of a new president and warned the paralysis could only worsen the country's political crisis.

Qatar's roadmap for Lebanon: Government formation and reforms discussed in Doha's Quincy meeting
LBCI/July 17, 2023
Doha, the capital of Qatar, once again serves as a meeting ground for the five countries involved in addressing Lebanon's challenges. This time, the meeting in Doha explored the presidential file from various angles, with the participation of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, France, and the United States. The attendees kept the gathering low-key, refraining from issuing official statements. As the host nation, Qatar presented a joint working paper on Lebanon, which included a clear roadmap. The first step outlined in the paper is a Lebanese-to-Lebanese dialogue under the auspices of the Parliament, with international and regional sponsorship. This dialogue aims to pave the way for a consensus on a presidential choice. It is expected to take place after the end of French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian's visits to Lebanon, during which he will discuss the presidential crisis with political stakeholders. Qatar's working paper also addresses the formation of the government and the issue of reforms, which can only be achieved through a radical transformation of 30 positions within the administration—a crucial key to any rescue operation. The Qatari side will coordinate with Lebanese experts to implement this roadmap. Egypt's Foreign Minister was evident in his statements, openly suggesting the appointment of the commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces as the president and the formation of an empowered government. He also called for Iran's involvement in the Quincy meeting dialogue. In this context, it was agreed that the Qatari minister would visit Tehran to discuss the outcomes of the Doha meeting with Iranian officials. The French envoy kept the attendees informed about his ongoing communications. Notably, the US Secretary of State expressed his country's interest in the French and Qatari initiatives regarding the Lebanese presidency. He emphasized the importance of Saudi Arabia's participation and contribution to building Lebanon's future.

No talk of resignation: BDL's Governor's deputies participate in Parliament's discussions on economic measures
LBCI/July 17, 2023
In the coming hours, a dialogue will take place in the Lebanese Parliament, specifically within the Administration and Justice Committee headed by MP Georges Adwan. The governor's deputies and other committee members representing different political affiliations will discuss the laws that need to be passed by the Parliament.The objective is to enable First Deputy Governor Wassim Mansouri and the other three deputies to adopt a critical policy that can effectively address the exchange rate of the Lebanese lira against the US dollar. The Banque du Liban (BDL) sources stated that the Parliament is responsible for determining the exchange rate system.Based on legal and legitimate rules, it is expected that the authorities will act in accordance with this framework after July 31. Any action taken outside this framework would be considered a violation of the law, a scenario that the governor's deputies are not inclined to pursue.
The resignation issue was not addressed during the governor's deputies' meeting. Their sources stated that resignation is not their objective now. Instead, they focus on exploring avenues for cooperation with all stakeholders to salvage the financial and monetary situation and devise strategies for confronting the crisis. In this context, the sources affirmed that discussions between governor deputies' and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have been ongoing for a month. These discussions resulted in a recommendation to adopt a global platform to address the exchange rate.Currently, two options are being considered: Bloomberg or Reuters platforms. However, the matter is still under review, and no final decision has been made.

Chahine says vice governors won't quit, promises transparent exchange platform
Naharnet/July 17, 2023
Central Bank Third Vice Governor Salim Chahine has confirmed that there will be no “mass resignation” of the bank’s four vice governors. In remarks to Annahar newspaper published Monday, Chahine also said that the vice governors will not accept to “keep using depositors’ funds to cover the expenses of the state and the Sayrafa platform.”“The law will be strictly implemented and the responsibility will be shifted to where it should be – in the government and not in the Central Bank,” Chahine added. “Any intervention that will be requested from the Central Bank will only take place through a decision from the government and a legal and constitutional cover,” Chahine went on to say. “The discussions are currently revolving around the means to cooperate with the government and parliament to reconcile viewpoints should we assume the governorship’s responsibilities, in order to work within the correct governance principles, unify and liberate the exchange rate and secure monetary and banking stability,” Chahine added. And in an interview with the Nidaa al-Watan newspaper, Chahine said that there will be “a new (currency exchange) platform that will be more transparent and bigger in size.”According to media reports, the new platform will be launched in cooperation with Bloomberg or Reuters. “Through obliging traders and merchants to buy and sell in Lebanese lira and asking importers to buy dollars for importation through the new electronic platform, we will be able to achieve a bigger trading volume and this will likely support a more efficient pricing in the floated and free exchange rate market,” Chahine added. “Keeping Sayrafa and its current mechanisms will lead to further lira losses and also dollar losses, when the Central Bank fails to buy the needed USD sums from the market. That’s why there is a dire need to move to an organized exchange rate market that reflects the true balance between supply and demand,” Chahine went on to say.

Ibrahim confirms meeting Shea, says he proposed border tensions solution
Naharnet/July 17, 2023
Former General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim has confirmed that U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea had visited him days ago and that the discussions “tackled the situations in the South and the issue of the tents” erected by Hezbollah inside and near the Israeli-occupied Shebaa Farms. The talks also addressed the situation in the border village of Ghajar, after Israel annexed its Lebanese northern part. “The ambassador listened to my ideas and my proposal in this regard is in the hands of the local authorities and Ambassador Shea,” Ibrahim said. “This proposal might be the solution that would lead to lowering tensions in the South and resolving this dilemma,” the former General Security chief, who has good ties with Hezbollah, added.

Lebanese Cabinet to hold successive sessions on state budget
Naharnet/July 17, 2023
The caretaker Cabinet will hold successive sessions to discuss the draft state budget, the National News Agency reported on Monday. The first session will be held next Monday, NNA said. The Council of Ministers’ General-Secretariat had received the draft from the Finance Ministry this afternoon.

Ministerial delegation to visit Syria over refugee repatriation
Naharnet/July 17, 2023
Minister of Social Affairs Hector Hajjar and Minister of the Displaced Issam Sharafeddine will soon visit Damascus to meet with their Syrian counterparts over the repatriation of the Syrian refugees, al-Joumhouria newspaper reported Monday. It added that Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib, who had said he would not head the ministerial delegation to Syria, has called his Syrian counterpart, Faisal al-Miqdad, and agreed with him to meet soon. Sharafeddine blamed Bou Habib for wasting more than a month before announcing that he would not be able to head the Lebanese delegation. In remarks published Monday in Asharq al-Awsat, Sharafeddine said Bou Habib is responsible for the long delay in setting a date for the visit.

Finance committee to approve oil sovereign fund before August drilling
Naharnet/July 17, 2023
The Finance and Budget Parliamentary Committee held a session Monday to discuss the issue of the creation of an oil and gas sovereign fund. “We discussed the report of the sovereign fund subcommittee and endorsed its content in terms of the commitment to the independence of its management and the transparency of its accounts and foreign investments,” Committee chief MP Ibrahim Kanaan said after the meeting. “We will hold two sessions on Thursday and Monday to approve it in a final manner and submit it to parliament so that it be ready prior to the beginning of exploration in mid-August,” Kanaan added.

Depositor storms bank in Antelias, takes his $15000 savings
Naharnet/July 17, 2023
A Lebanese depositor broke into Mawarid bank in Antelias on Monday to demand his trapped savings. Edgard Awwad stormed the bank with his thirteen years old son and left after he received his entire savings, a sum of $15000. Last week, another depositor broke into BML bank in Beirut and held the branch manager hostage until he received his savings. As the small country’s crippling economic crisis continues to worsen, a growing number of Lebanese depositors have opted to break into banks and forcefully withdraw their trapped savings, as Lebanon's cash-strapped banks have imposed informal limits on cash withdrawals. Three-quarters of the population has plunged into poverty in an economic crisis that the World Bank describes as one of the worst in over a century. Meanwhile, the Lebanese pound has lost 90% of its value against the dollar, making it difficult for millions across the country to cope with skyrocketing prices.

Diplomatic transfers spark political fronts amid crisis at Foreign Affairs Ministry
LBCI/July 17, 2023
In a challenging situation for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a diplomatic transfers crisis has ignited political tensions. Thirty diplomats with consular rank from the 2008 and 2019 cohorts have been unlucky in securing transfers to Lebanon's foreign missions since 2021 due to the ongoing financial crisis. However, the appointment of these diplomats abroad implies the return of an equal number of consuls to Beirut. Currently, the number of consuls in Lebanese diplomatic missions reaches 43, a composition formed in a single cohort in 2018, further exacerbating the problem.
Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib and Secretary-General Hani Shmaytelli have drafted a proposal for the transfers, sparking a wave of objections among the 43 diplomats who have not completed their seven-year term abroad, the maximum period allowed by law in their positions.
These diplomats primarily object on three points:
- The summoning before completing the seven-year term, a precedent that has only occurred in disciplinary cases.
- The lack of a unified and transparent criterion adopted in the transfers.
- The inability to split the cohort itself, meaning diplomats from the 2018 cohort remain in their positions while others are brought back to Lebanon.
In contrast, sources close to the Foreign Minister affirmed his authority to recall diplomats before the expiration of their seven-year term, citing the exceptional circumstances following the decline in salaries for those attached to the administration in Beirut, equivalent to $70. Moreover, some have even hinted at resignations.
Nevertheless, the administrative dispute has not been devoid of political undertones, with strong objections from the Free Patriotic Movement. They are dissatisfied with the Foreign Minister for preparing the proposal with the Secretary-General without returning to the administrative committee, which includes the Director of Political Affairs and the Director of Administrative Affairs. Regarding the content, the FPM considered the transfers during the caretaker government to be unfavorable and called for a halt to diplomatic transfers. In both 2018 and 2021, due to a decision issued by the Civil Service Board, it was considered that any transfers during the caretaker cabinet require exceptional approval from the President and the Prime Minister. Government sources confirmed that the Foreign Minister is questioned about the decision on transfers, and any political attempt to hold the caretaker Prime Minister responsible is part of known campaigns, especially considering Bou Habib's affiliation with this group.The draft proposal is currently with the Civil Service Board for review and opinions. So, will it be accepted, or will alternative solutions be found, such as recalling economic attaches from abroad and appointing diplomats in their respective positions? The decision remains pending.

Inside the battle: Interior Minister and ISF Director clash over officer transfers
LBCI/July 17, 2023
Lebanon's Interior Minister, Bassam Mawlawi, and the General Director of the Internal Security Forces (ISF), Major General Imad Othman, have engaged in a heated dispute that revolves around a recent decision issued by Othman. The disagreement stems from a telegraph dated June 27, 2023, which ordered the transfer of 23 officers from their primary positions to new centers and the inclusion of the Information Branch, headed by Brigadier General Khaled Hamoud, under the direct authority of the General Director. However, the Interior Minister recently made a decisive move by canceling the telegraph and declaring that it should not be implemented at all. This has raised questions about the conflict between the two officials. According to LBCI's sources, Major General Othman justified transferring the officers to new centers for exceptional reasons. The primary catalyst behind this decision was the vacant position of Chief of Staff, which oversees 11 branches within the ISF. Orthodox Christian Brigadier General Naim Chammas previously held the position. In the absence of appointments and due to retirement, the highest-ranking officer in the respective branch assumes the role of Chief of Staff. Brigadier General Hamoud took the position after Chammas' retirement, effectively becoming the acting Chief of Staff. In an attempt to restore the position to an Orthodox Christian officer, Othman dismissed the three deputy chiefs who ranked higher in the administration than the Orthodox Christian officer, allowing him to assume the position of Chief of Staff. As a result, Brigadier General Hamoud became subordinate to the General Director, while the other two deputy chiefs were removed from their positions. According to sources, the General Director typically executes these internal measures without requiring a decree from the Minister.
However, the Interior Minister viewed this internal decision as a clear violation. In the Minister's recent decree, he emphasized that Othman's actions lacked a legal basis and that the dismissals of officers did not consider the hierarchical and sectarian criteria. On July 4, the Interior Minister sent a letter to Major General Othman, requesting him to reverse the decision and restore the Information Branch to the jurisdiction of the General Staff. Notably, any modification to this decision requires a decree from the Cabinet. When Othman did not respond to the letter, Mawlawi invoked Article 66 of the constitution, empowering him to enforce all regulations related to his ministry. On July 12, the Minister issued a decree nullifying Imad Othman's telegraph and warning of potential accountability. Will Major General Othman comply with the Interior Minister's decree or overlook it, asserting that such internal measures fall within the sole authority of the General Director? Moreover, some observers suggest that the dispute between Mawlawi and Othman is more politically charged than administrative or legal, potentially opening up debates about the management of the ISF in the upcoming phase.

From darkness to resurgence: Beirut's iconic nightlife comes back to life
LBCI/July 17, 2023
Beirut's iconic waterfront district, once a vibrant hub filled with people seeking entertainment and nightlife, has drastically transformed over the past few years. However, from 2019 until now, the economic crisis and the devastating explosion of August 4, 2020, have cast a shadow over the area, plunging it into darkness and silence with minimal activity. However, a glimmer of hope has emerged, signaling the revival of life and the resounding beats of music in the streets of Beirut this summer. The city, whose vibrant spirit had diminished over the past three years, is now coming alive once again. The return of the lively atmosphere to this street coincided with the start of the nightlife again at this point, and with it, the sound of the music returned, the lights came back on, and the crowds of people dictated the streets. This summer, the lovers of Beirut's nightlife were on a date with the reopening of six nightlife venues, some of which had already existed in the area. Still, it was forcibly closed due to the crisis and the explosion. Others are newcomers, adding a fresh touch to the neighborhood, each with its unique ambiance.  The resurgence of Beirut's nightlife, the beating heart of Lebanon, would not have been possible without the determination of young people who love their country. They consciously decided to invest in their nation and its people, refusing to succumb to hardships and crises. Four of the six nightclubs have already become sought-after destinations for nightlife enthusiasts, including residents, expatriates, and tourists, seeking to create unforgettable memories in Lebanon. The preparations for the remaining two venues are in full swing, eagerly anticipating their upcoming openings. Beirut, we have missed you dearly. We yearned for nights that would be etched in our memories forever, spent in your enchanting establishments. We longed to see you illuminated again, just as you have always been—a shining star in the Middle East.

Lebanese MP who crossed border says he'll intensify such actions
Tzvi Joffre/Jerusalem Post/July 17/2023
Lebanese MP Qassem Hashem, affiliated with the Hezbollah-allied Amal movement, warned that he would repeat efforts to cross the border between Lebanon and Israel after he led a group of dozens of Lebanese citizens who infiltrated Israeli territory on Saturday. "Our visit with the media and a number of civilians who own property in the Shebaa Farms is not something new, but it is scheduled, and we go on such tours from time to time to remind Lebanon of the Shebaa Farms and to remind the enemy that it is an occupier of this land and we cannot tolerate its continued occupation of it," said Hashem in an interview with Sawt Beirut on Saturday. "We will repeat it, and we will return again and again and again to such initiatives and more of them and more severely until we reach the moment of its liberation from this enemy," stressed the MP. Despite the threat and recent tensions surrounding the Lebanese-Israeli border, Hashem insisted that "there is stability" along the border, claiming that this was due to the "balance of deterrence" with Israel. Lebanese citizens infiltrated 80 meters into Israeli territory
On Saturday, Hashem led dozens of Lebanese citizens in crossing around 80 meters in the Mount Dov area, referred to as the Shebaa Farms area by Hezbollah and the Lebanese government, leading the IDF to respond with warning shots and crowd dispersal methods.The Shebaa Farms area has been one of the centers of recent tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, with repeated scuffles occurring between Lebanese citizens and IDF soldiers in the area. Lebanon claims that the Shebaa Farms is Lebanese territory, while Israel says it's Israeli territory. About two months ago, Hezbollah set up two tents in the area and placed armed operatives inside.
In a speech on Wednesday marking the anniversary of the Second Lebanon War, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah warned that if the tents were attacked Hezbollah would respond.
Israel has reportedly been conducting extensive diplomatic efforts through UNIFIL to convince Hezbollah to move the tents back into Lebanese territory, but Hezbollah and Lebanese officials have insisted that the area the tents are currently located in belongs to Lebanon.
Nasrallah reiterated a claim that the tents are located in Lebanese territory, not Israeli territory, adding that the tents were only put up after Israeli authorities began building a fence around the village of Ghajar, which is split in half by the Blue Line with half in Lebanon and half in Israel.
Lebanese officials have accused Israel in recent weeks of effectively annexing the northern part of Ghajar due to the construction of the fence. Referring to Ghajar, Nasrallah warned that Hezbollah "could not remain silent" on the matter and accused Israel of "occupying" the village. "The land of Ghajar, the Sheeba Farms, and the Kfarchouba hills will not be left to the Israelis," stressed Nasrallah. "Work must be done to liberate it, and the effort will be shared between the state and the resistance." Last week, an anti-tank missile was fired toward the village of Ghajar, which is split in half by the Blue Line. In response to the missile fire, the IDF launched artillery strikes on sites near the towns of Kfarchouba and Halta. Over 15 shells were fired by the IDF toward southern Lebanon, according to Lebanon's National News Agency. The missile fire came shortly after a statement by Hezbollah expressing outrage at the construction of a fence around Ghajar, with the movement accusing Israel of implementing a "complete occupation" of the village and stressing that "this is not just a routine breach of what the occupation forces are accustomed to from time to time."
On Wednesday morning, Hezbollah-affiliated media published footage of Israeli forces operating in the northern part of Ghajar, calling the presence of Israeli forces a “breach.”Additionally, in recent weeks, the IDF and Lebanese citizens have clashed at various points along the Lebanese border while the IDF carried out maintenance work near the technical fence, including in the Shebaa Farms area. On Wednesday, Lebanese media reports indicated that three members of Hezbollah were injured after approaching the border fence, with the IDF stating that it had acted against suspects who had attempted to damage the fence, with video from the scene showing suspects nearing the fence before a non-lethal explosive detonated on the fence and they ran away. Nasrallah referenced the scuffles that took place between Lebanese citizens and Israeli forces along the Lebanese border on Wednesday, stating that the incidents were "under investigation" and stressing that "necessary measures" would be carried out once the investigation was completed.

Is Israel's IDF losing its touch in deterring Hezbollah? - analysis
Yonah Jeremy Bob/Jerusalem Post/July 17/2023
From the number of incidents in which Lebanese are crossing the border, it is clear that the IDF has not made any huge shift of forces to the North to stop them. For the last year or so, Hezbollah has been steadily escalating its provocations against Israel on the Lebanese border. But in the last two months, and especially this past week, the altercations and provocations spiked to new levels and seem to be catching Israel flatfooted, even as the IDF says it has a strategy and has things under control. Does it? Or is the IDF still lost about how to handle Hezbollah’s increased aggressiveness?Part of what has been fascinating  about Hezbollah’s approach is that it has been extremely empirical, gradual, and systematic in order to tease out exactly where Israel is weaker and less sure of itself. This was most prominent with Hezbollah’s establishment of outposts, which The Jerusalem Post has learned was done by accident and initially without Hezbollah Chief Hassan Nasrallah’s knowledge. Subsequently, Hezbollah said nothing about the outposts and kept them quiet, with Nasrallah himself avoiding commenting on them for around two months until he was sure that the IDF and the government were worried about confronting him. Nasrallah was careful not to say a word until after Israel wrote multiple polite requests to the UN to ask it to convince Hezbollah to move and after multiple other Lebanese officials publicly rejected the requests, and the IDF still did nothing.  All of this was occurring in the Mount Dov enclave where the IDF says it has complete control, but where apparently a couple dozen Lebanese were able to infiltrate over the weekend around 80 meters into Israeli territory.
Other Hezbollah provocations
Other recent provocations have included firing tank missiles at Israel’s fence, ripping off Israeli surveillance cameras, and throwing rocks as the IDF tries to build up its fence along the UN-recognized Blue Line border. Part of the game is that for years, Hezbollah did lower-level provocations or random Lebanese citizens would just walk across the Blue Line, because there was no physical barrier. This was why around a year ago, the IDF went into higher gear to finish the fence. However, aside from the new IDF fence extensions limiting Hezbollah’s ability to make trouble and potentially invade with its elite Radwan unit, the fence extensions also sometimes do go slightly onto the Lebanese side of the Blue Line. According to the IDF, this is never a land grab. It is merely matter-of-fact that the Blue Line was drawn without considering geography and sometimes a fence can only physically be sustained in certain spots.
But Nasrallah’s point in his speech last week was to accuse Israel of having violated the Blue Line more, to try to flip the whole narrative.  What can the IDF really do to the Hezbollah fighters camping out at an outpost a few meters into Israeli territory, nowhere near Israeli civilians, and where the IDF has any possible path they could try to advance further completely cut off?
Israel has always pushed back any invaders and fired back on those who have fired on it, but mostly with kid gloves. Two major drills have or are being held in the North last week and this week. The IDF chief-of-staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi, IDF intelligence chief Maj.-Gen. Aharon Haliva, and IDF Northern Commander Maj.-Gen. Uri Gordon have all recently spoken about the crisis, visited the North, or both.  And Israel of course has every right to evict them by force. But now that they have been there for two months and are not really a danger, how will the world look at the IDF if there is a blood bath to remove them? This weekend the IDF was able to get the couple dozen Lebanese to withdraw using non-lethal means. But what if next time some Lebanese infiltrate and are killed, even though they are not armed.
Also, what if some Lebanese get deeper into Israel than 80 meters having learned lessons about how to potentially beat Israel’s non-lethal measures?
The fact is the highest echelons of the IDF are split about whether to remove the Hezbollah outposts by force. For now, the group wanting to wait longer to see if Hezbollah can be convinced to leave, or at least to wait for a quieter moment, is holding sway. From the number of incidents in which Lebanese are crossing the border, even in significant numbers, or attacking or breaching aspects of the border fence, it is clear that the IDF has not made any huge shift of forces to the North to stop them. Yet, the IDF remains supremely confident that it has the situation under control. It is convinced that Nasrallah is still deeply deterred by how hard he and Hezbollah were hit by the IDF during the 2006 Second Lebanon War. The IDF cites as evidence that all of Nasrallah's speeches and low-grade gimmicks simply betray that he has not risked a broader conflict with Israel in over 17 years.
Is the IDF right?
Probably the most accurate reading of the current situation is that neither Nasrallah nor the IDF have decided how far they will go or when to risk a bigger conflict. That is a combustible mix for the coming months.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 17-18/2023
Four men arrested after victim held hostage for days in Toronto: police
The Canadian Press/Mon, July 17, 2023
TORONTO — Four men have been arrested in a kidnapping in downtown Toronto last year. Toronto police say they were notified of a missing person in the city’s downtown core on Dec. 5. They allege the victim was lured into a vehicle by the suspects, and once inside the vehicle, two suspects pointed firearms. Police allege the victim was held for three days in various locations and a firearm was discharged before the victim was released in the downtown Toronto area. They say officers arrested four men this month, and a loaded handgun was recovered on one of the suspects. The suspects, whose ages range between 24 and 39, are charged with several criminal offences including kidnapping, kidnapping for ransom, conspiracy to commit an indictable offence and pointing a firearm. This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 17, 2023.

Russian fighter jet flies dangerously close to US warplane over Syria
WASHINGTON (AP)/Mon, July 17, 2023
A Russian fighter jet flew very close to a U.S. surveillance aircraft over Syria, forcing it to go through the turbulent wake and putting the lives of the four American crew members in danger, U.S. officials said Monday. The officials said the incident, which happened just before noon EDT on Sunday, was a significant escalation in what has been a string of encounters between U.S. and Russian aircraft in Syria in recent weeks. The intercept by the Russian Su-35 impeded the U.S. crew’s ability to safely operate their MC-12 aircraft, the officials said, calling it a new level of unsafe behavior that could result in an accident or loss of life. In recent weeks, Russian fighter jets have repeatedly harassed U.S. unmanned MQ-9 drones, but the latest incident raised alarms because it endangered American lives. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss details of a military operation, would not say how close the Russian jet got to the U.S. warplane. The MC-12, which is a twin-engine turboprop aircraft routinely used by special operations forces, was doing surveillance in support of operations against the Islamic State groups in Syria, the officials said. On multiple occasions in the past two weeks, Russian fighter jets flew dangerously close to MQ-9 Reapers, setting off flares and forcing the drones to take evasive maneuvers. U.S. and Russian military officers communicate frequently over a deconfliction phone line during the encounters, protesting the other side's actions. The U.S. is considering a number of military options to address the increasing Russian aggression in the skies over Syria, which complicated efforts to strike an Islamic State group leader earlier this month, according to a senior defense official. The U.S. was eventually able to launch a strike and kill the militant. The official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss military operations, declined to detail the options under consideration, but said the U.S. will not cede any territory and will continue to fly in the western part of the country on anti-Islamic State missions.
The Russian military activity, which has increased in frequency and aggression since March, stems from growing cooperation and coordination between Moscow, Tehran and the Syrian government to try to pressure the U.S. to leave Syria. There are about 900 U.S. forces in the country, and others move in and out to conduct missions targeting Islamic State group militants.

US to send additional jets, warship to Middle East
WASHINGTON (Reuters)/Mon, July 17, 2023
The United States will send additional F-35 and F-16 fighter jets, along with a warship to the Middle East, the Pentagon said on Monday, in a bid to monitor key waterways in the region following Iran's seizure and harassment of commercial shipping vessels in recent months.In May, the White House had announced that the Biden administration would be making a series of moves in the region, but at the time did not say what it would include. "The (Pentagon) is increasing our presence and ability to monitor the (Strait of Hormuz) and surrounding waters," Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh told reporters. It was not clear where exactly the additional jets would be placed and how long they would stay in the region. Earlier this month, the U.S. Navy said it had intervened to prevent Iran from seizing two commercial tankers in the Gulf of Oman. Since 2019, there have been a series of attacks on shipping in strategic Gulf waters at times of tension between the United States and Iran. About a fifth of the world's crude oil and oil products passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point between Iran and Oman. With the 2015 Iran nuclear deal effectively dead, Iran's relations with the West have deteriorated over the last year, leading Washington and its allies to look for ways to de-escalate tensions and, if that happened, for a way to revive some kind of nuclear limits. Due to former U.S. President Donald Trump's withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and President Joe Biden not being able to revive it, Iran could make the fissile material for one bomb in 12 days or so, according to U.S. estimates, down from a year when the accord was in force. Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons, which the West sees as a threat to Israel and Gulf Arab oil exporters.

Biden extends invite to Israel's Netanyahu to visit US
Al Monitor/July 17/2023
WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden has invited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to an upcoming meeting in the United States, according to an Israeli readout of their phone call Monday. "President Biden invited Prime Minister Netanyahu to meet in the US soon," Netanyahu’s office said in a statement. “The prime minister responded positively to the invitation and it was agreed that the Israeli and US teams would coordinate the details of the meeting,” the statement said, adding that the pair had a "warm and long conversation." No date or location was given, fueling speculation that the meeting would take place on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York this September. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters Monday that the meeting would happen "sometime in the fall." Netanyahu, who was elected for a sixth term as Israel’s prime minister in November, has yet to visit Washington as is customary for new Israeli premiers. The US-Israel relationship has been strained by Netanyahu's planned judicial overhaul and his right-wing coalition's policies in the West Bank. Earlier this month, Biden said that Netanyahu's cabinet was "among the most extreme" he had ever seen in Israel.  During their call Monday, Biden expressed concern about the settlement expansion and “called on all parties to refrain from further unilateral measures,” according to a White House readout. “Biden reiterated, in the context of the current debate in Israel about judicial reform, the need for the broadest possible consensus, and that shared democratic values have always been and must remain a hallmark of the U.S.-Israel relationship,” the statement said. Netanyahu's call with Biden came a day before Israeli President Isaac Herzog visits Washington. Herzog, whose position is largely ceremonial, is scheduled to meet Biden before addressing a joint session of Congress on Wednesday.

Israel's governing coalition presses ahead with plan to overhaul courts ahead of expected protests
TEL AVIV, Israel (AP)/Mon, July 17, 2023
Israel's governing coalition pushed ahead Monday with its contentious plan to overhaul the country's judiciary, despite growing opposition from within the country's military and a wave of mass protests expected this week. A parliamentary committee was preparing a bill that would limit judicial oversight on some government decisions, legislation that has sparked intensifying criticism from military reservists in elite units, including the air force and cyberwarfare. Many have warned they will not show up for duty if the overhaul moves ahead. Reservists, who make up the backbone of the country's mostly compulsory military, played a key role in prompting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to pause the overhaul plan earlier this year. In response to the legislation, which is expected to go before a final parliamentary vote early next week, a large protest movement is expected to stage a “day of disruption” on Tuesday. These days of mass protest in the past have snarled traffic, choked the terminal at Israel's main international airport and descended into clashes between police and demonstrators. The judicial overhaul, advanced by Netanyahu’s nationalist and religious government, has deeply divided Israel, plunging it into one of its worst domestic crises and even sparking concern from its most important ally, the U.S. The prime minister's office said Netanyahu told President Joe Biden on Monday that a bill to remove the Supreme Court's ability to strike down government actions it deemed "unreasonable" would be brought for a parliamentary vote next week. But he said that he would “try to form broad public support” for the rest of the judicial overhaul over the summer recess, the office said. Netanyahu paused the overhaul in March, facing a wave of mass protests, labor strikes that halted outgoing flights and many other sectors and pledges by military reservists to not show up for duty if the legislation advanced. Similar pressures are reemerging as the government resumes its efforts. The government says the plan is meant to rein in what it sees as an overly interventionist judicial system and restore power to elected officials. Critics say the plan would upend Israel’s delicate system of checks and balances and push the country toward autocracy. They also say Netanyahu has a conflict of interest by trying to shake up the justice system when he is on trial for corruption charges. Speaking at a meeting of his Cabinet on Monday, a day after being discharged from hospital for a dizzy spell, Netanyahu defended the overhaul and the bill moving forward now, which would prevent Israel’s courts from scrutinizing the “reasonability" of decisions made by elected officials. He also slammed the recent wave of opposition from within the military.
“In a democracy, the military is subordinate to the elected government and not the other way around,” he said. “Insubordination is contrary to democracy and contrary to the law.” A rising tide of criticism from within the military earlier this year prompted the country's defense minister, Yoav Gallant, to oppose the overhaul. His dissension led to Netanyahu firing him, which sparked the mass protests that forced the Israeli leader to freeze the legal changes and reinstate Gallant. The government is moving forward with the plan after talks to find a compromise with opposition political parties failed. The legislation's advance also comes despite warnings from across Israeli society that the overhaul would hurt the country's economy, its military capabilities and tear apart its delicate social fabric. Israel's currency, the shekel, has tumbled in value this year after the plan was unveiled. The “reasonability standard” allows the court to review key government decisions in order to protect against improper appointments and potential corruption. It was used by the Supreme Court earlier this year to strike down the appointment of a Netanyahu ally as interior minister because of a past conviction for bribery and a 2021 plea deal for tax evasion. The government says the standard is arbitrary and overused by the courts to cancel decisions made by elected officials.Critics say removing the standard would allow the government to appoint unqualified cronies to important positions without without oversight. They also say that it could clear the way for Netanyahu to fire the current attorney general — seen by supporters as a bulwark against the overhaul plan — or appoint legal officials who could ease his way out of the corruption charges he is facing in an ongoing trial.

Islamic Jihad says Palestinian security arrests five of its members in Jenin
Nidal al-Mughrabi/GAZA (Reuters)/Mon, July 17, 2023
Islamic Jihad militants said Palestinian security forces detained five more of their members in Jenin overnight, underlining rifts between groups in the West Bank two weeks since Israel launched its largest raid there in years. Israel - which says its raid targeted militants - has pressed the Palestinian Authority to take tougher action against Iran-backed Islamic Jihad and Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip and also has fighters in the West Bank. There was no immediate comment from Israel on the reported arrests, or from the security forces of the Palestinian Authority (PA), which exercises limited governance in parts of the West Bank. The city of Jenin and the huge adjoining refugee camp have been at the heart of an escalation of violence across the West Bank that has triggered mounting alarm from Washington to the Arab world. Militant groups have accused the Palestinian Authority of weakness and failing to do enough to stand up to Israel. Angry crowds confronted senior PA officials after Israel's two-day raid, and in one standoff forced Authority members to leave a funeral for 10 people killed in the incursion. Islamic Jihad spokesmen Daoud Shehab said on Monday the arrests overnight took the total number of its members arrested by the Palestinian Authority since the raid to 10. He added that his group was trying to secure their release by talking to "rational" people in Fatah, the movement led by President Mahmoud Abbas which dominates the Palestinian Authority. The Authority protested against the Israeli operation, which it called a war crime, but was unable to do anything to halt it. PA officials say Israel regularly undermines their authority, making it impossible for them to exert authority or create the basis for a future Palestinian state in the West Bank, which Israel seized after the 1967 Middle East war. Days after the raid, Abbas visited the camp and said workers would start repairing damaged homes and infrastructure.

Israel recognizes Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara
JERUSALEM (AP)/Mon, July 17, 2023
Israel announced Monday it was recognizing Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, joining the United States as the only countries to acknowledge the kingdom's annexation of the disputed north African territory. The announcement came shortly after Morocco's Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying King Mohammed VI had received a letter from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recognizing Morocco’s claim over the territory. Netanyahu's office later confirmed the announcement. Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said recognition of Western Sahara as Moroccan territory “will strengthen relations between the countries and the nations” and advance regional stability. Israel and Morocco reestablished diplomatic relations as part of the “Abraham Accords” brokered by former President Donald Trump between Israel and Arab states. The two countries had low-level diplomatic ties in the 1990s that were disrupted by the Palestinian uprising that began in 2000. In exchange for Morocco normalizing relations with Israel, the Trump administration promised in December 2020 to recognize Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. The announcement upset decades of U.S. policy and international consensus that Western Sahara’s status should be settled by a U.N. referendum. Morocco annexed Western Sahara, a former Spanish colony believed to have considerable offshore oil deposits and mineral resources, in 1975, sparking a conflict with the pro-independence Polisario Front. The U.N. brokered a 1991 cease-fire and established a peacekeeping mission to monitor the truce and help prepare a referendum on the territory’s future. Disagreements over who is eligible to vote have prevented that vote from taking place. The Polisario Front renewed armed conflict in 2020, ending a 29-year truce. Mounting tensions have reverberated across borders to Morocco’s neighbor Algeria, which broke diplomatic ties with Rabat in 2021. The enmity has escalated between the two nations, which both share allies in the West, the Middle East and elsewhere.

Protests outside schools and cinemas by hardline Muslims 'pose national security threat'
Neil Johnston/The Telegraph/Mon, July 17, 2023
Anti-blasphemy protests outside schools and cinemas by conservative Muslims are becoming a threat to national security, a new report has warned. The review by the Henry Jackson Society think tank has warned that the failure to protect teachers and others from intimidation is amounting to a tacit anti-blasphemy law. The 69-page report, Britain’s New Blasphemy Police?, examined a series of incidents in recent years including the case of a teacher at Batley Grammar School in West Yorkshire who showed pupils a cartoon of the Prophet Mohammed during an RE lesson. The teacher remains in hiding more than two years after the row, which prompted protests at the school gates. The report found that some of those involved in the protest had praised extreme religious clerics and said the school’s response of apologising set a “worrying precedent.”“Non-religious schools should not be beholden to religious restrictions,” it noted.
Death threats
It also looked at an incident in Wakefield where a Koran was accidentally damaged in the playground prompting death threats against a 14-year-old autistic boy and his mother, who appeared at a local mosque to apologise. The report said that that incorrect rumours spread by local politicians showed “problematic political influence over how blasphemy incidents are responded to” and it “is inappropriate for a religious institution to become involved in matters of an unrelated school”. It recommended the government create an interdepartmental taskforce to investigate what happened in Batley and Wakefield. On the wider issue, the report’s author, Charlotte Littlewood, a research fellow at the think tank, concluded that the backlash over offensive portrayals of Islam pose “a serious threat to social cohesion, individual liberties and the peaceful coexistence of diverse communities within the United Kingdom. “The threat is perhaps not taken as seriously as Salafi-jihadist style terror, yet it is nonetheless one that has a potential to inspire intimidation, violence and even mass killings.”
Potential for violence
The report said that most cases fall within the law, but “they have the potential in some cases to develop into threatening and even violent action”. It said that radical anti-blasphemy clerics from Pakistan and Bangladesh had entered the UK to preach at mosques linked to “extreme anti-blasphemy action in the UK”. Ms Littlewood urged the Home Office to do more to block extremist preachers entering the UK in the same way as it has stopped far-right speakers. In some instances, local councils are taking “contradictory and problematic positions” and the “responses of schools, publishing houses and cinemas have been inconsistent and potentially led by fear.”It noted: “Accepting a tacit anti-blasphemy law is antithetical to our democratic values whilst also a threat to national security. Schools, cinemas and publishing houses need commitments to be made to their assured safety in the face of threats and renewed and robust guidelines on how to respond to threats of anti-blasphemy action.” The report suggested the Home Office should proscribe two groups supported by some protestors that promote violence against marginalised Ahmadi Muslims.
Teaching without censorship
The Department for Education was also urged to prioritise the safety of staff and pupils and the ability to teach without censorship. In a foreword to the report, Tim Loughton, a Conservative MP, said it showed “extreme anti-blasphemy action as a growing risk to key tenets of our liberal democratic system, including the right to freedom of speech and freedom of religion”. He added: “UK publishing houses and cinemas have been intimidated and on occasion attacked on grounds of blasphemy. A teacher remains in hiding, an autistic boy received death threats and all the while schools, local authorities and even the police have seemingly cooperated with protesters. This simply cannot continue. “It is time to afford extreme anti-blasphemy action the same attention we afford the likes of Al-Qaeda and ISIS. If the attacks on the Charlie Hebdo offices in France are anything to go by, this ideological extremism has no lesser propensity for violence. “A Home Office spokesperson said: “Extremism has no place in our society. We work closely with law enforcement, local communities and our international partners to tackle groups and individuals who sow division and hatred.” A Department for Education spokesperson said: “We have been clear that it is never acceptable to threaten or intimidate teachers and we encourage dialogue between parents and schools when issues emerge. “Schools are free to include a full range of issues, ideas and materials in their curriculum, including where they are challenging or controversial subject to their obligations to ensure political balance. However, they must balance this with the need to promote respect and tolerance between people of different faiths and beliefs, including in deciding which materials to use in the classroom.”

Flying Russian flags, more Wagner troops roll into Belarus as part of deal that ended their mutiny
The Associated Press/Mon, July 17, 2023
More mercenaries from Russia's Wagner military contractor rolled into Belarus on Monday, a monitoring group said, continuing their relocation to the ex-Soviet nation following last month's short-lived mutiny. Belaruski Hajun, a Belarusian activist group that monitors troops movements in Belarus, said that a convoy of more than 100 vehicles carrying Russian flags and Wagner insignia entered the country, heading toward a field camp that Belarusian authorities had offered to the company. The convoy included heavy trucks and trailers with construction equipment, among other vehicles. The group said it was the third Wagner convoy to enter the country since last week. A messaging app channel linked to the contractor ran a video on Monday showing Russian and Wagner flags lowered at the mercenaries' main home base in Molkino in the Krasnodar region in southern Russia. The channel said that the base would fully close on July 30, and one of the mercenaries in the video declared that Wagner was moving to unspecified new locations. Wagner also has used camps in the Russia-occupied Luhansk region of Ukraine. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who brokered a deal that ended last month's rebellion launched by Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, has said that his country's military could benefit from the mercenaries' combat experience. On Friday, Belarusian state TV broadcast video of Wagner instructors training Belarusian territorial defense forces at a firing range in the Asipovichy region, where a camp offered to Wagne r is located. Belaruski Hajun alleged last week that Prigozhin spent a night at the camp near Tsel, about 90 kilometers (about 55 miles) southeast of the capital, Minsk, and posted a photo of him in a tent. In the revolt that started on June 23 and lasted less than 24 hours, Prigozhin’s mercenaries quickly swept through the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and captured the military headquarters there without firing a shot, before driving to within about 200 kilometers (125 miles) of Moscow. Prigozhin called it a “march of justice” to oust Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Staff chief Gen. Valery Gerasimov, who demanded that Wagner mercenaries sign contracts with the Defense Ministry. The mutiny faced little resistance and the mercenaries downed at least six military helicopters and a command post aircraft, killing at least 10 airmen. Prigozhin ordered his troops back to their camps after striking a deal to end the rebellion in exchange for an amnesty for him and his men, and permission to move to Belarus. The terms of the deal and Prigozhin's fate remain murky. The Belarusian Defense Ministry didn’t say how many Wagner troops were in Belarus. Lukashenko said previously it was up to Prigozhin and Moscow to decide on a move to Belarus. The Kremlin has refrained from comment. Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared that Wagner troops had a choice between signing contracts with the Defense Ministry, moving to Belarus or retiring from service. Putin said last week that he offered Wagner officers the option of continuing to serve as a single unit under their same commander when he met with them five days after the rebellion. Putin’s comments appeared to reflect his efforts to secure the loyalty of Wagner mercenaries, some of the most capable Russian forces in Ukraine, whose revolt posed the most serious threat to his 23-year rule. The Russian Defense Ministry said last week that Wagner was completing the handover of its weapons to the Russian military, part of efforts by Russian authorities to defuse the threat posed by the mercenaries. The Belarusian leader has rejected the allegations that Wagner's presence in Belarus could destabilize the country, but some observers noted that he would likely order the country's security agencies to maintain a close watch over the group's activities. “Lukashenko is a very cautious politician and he would be worried about possible surprises from the Russian mercenaries, whom he would seek to control day and night,” Belarusian political analyst Valery Karbalevich said. “The Belarusian security agencies will now focus their entire potential on not allowing Wagner to have any autonomy in Belarus.” During a meeting Monday with the country's chief prosecutor, Lukashenko spoke about the need to tighten control over the military to ensure their full compliance with the law.

Ukrainian helicopter crew say women flash them as they fly overhead to boost their morale fighting Russia
Sophia Ankel/ Business Insider/Mon, July 17, 2023
A Ukrainian air force crew told The Sunday Times that women flash them when they fly overhead. One woman even proposed marriage by holding up a sign as they flew over a town, a pilot said. The Ukrainian air force is trying to keep morale high as it faces a strong Russian counterpart. A Ukrainian helicopter crew told The Sunday Times that women in the country flash them as they fly overhead to boost their morale in fighting Russia. In a recent feature, the show of support was described by a Ukrainian pilot, identified only by his rank of major and his first name Maksym. He said his crew saves the GPS locations of places where it happens, lighthearted moment in their dangerous and often demoralizing missions against a far superior Russian air force. One woman even proposed marriage to them by holding up a sign, he said. Maksym and his fellow airmen have been flying a Soviet-designed Mil Mi-8 helicopter on daily missions to Bakhmut, an eastern city in Ukraine, which has become a flashpoint in the war. On their way to their missions they try to keep conversation light and positive, Maksym said, and like to interact with civilians on the ground. They recently threw a bottle of cognac wrapped in a towel to an elderly man they spotted in the war-torn landscape, he said. These kind of interactions as more viable because the helicopters fly very low to avoid Russian air-defense, often just 15 feet above ground, the Times report said. The Ukrainian air force is struggling against a far better-armed Russia, Maksym said. The disparity is especially strong between the air forces, which Maksym characterized by saying: "The Russians understand we can do nothing to them in the air."Ukraine has limited ammunition and no aircraft that counters Russia's newest models in the sky, he said. Half of his unit has already been killed, he added. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told The Wall Street Journal last month that Russian air superiority would exact a heavy toll on Ukrainian soldiers if Western powers did not provide them with reinforcements.

Russian forces are running out of the critical radars they need to defeat Ukraine's artillery, UK intel says
Jake Epstein/Business Insider/Mon, July 17, 2023
Both Ukraine and Russia rely on counter-battery radars to strike each other's artillery. But Moscow's troops face a shortage of critical radars that has only worsened during the war. Britain's defense ministry said Russian forces likely only have a few key systems remaining. Relentless and brutal artillery battles between Russian and Ukrainian forces are a key feature of ongoing fighting, leaving both sides dependent on counter-battery detection to find and attack enemy fire. But Moscow's troops lack enough critical radars to defeat Kyiv's artillery, with only a few hard-to-replace systems likely remaining, according to a new Western intelligence assessment. Ukrainian forces executing counteroffensive operations in the occupied eastern and southern regions are facing stiff and vicious Russian defensive lines, including elaborate fortifications like hardened trenches, sprawling minefields, and concrete anti-armor structures. For ground troops to surmount these obstacles means navigating through a slow and deadly process, and Ukrainian forces lack air superiority. So Kyiv is leaning heavily on weapons like howitzers or the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) to hit Russia's heavy guns, command and control locations, logistics and communications sites, and troop positions. "Russian ground forces survivability relies on effectively detecting Ukrainian artillery and striking against it, often with its force's own artillery," Britain's defense ministry said in a Monday intelligence update. "A key component of this approach is counter-battery radars, which allow commanders to rapidly locate enemy gun lines."
Ukraine rocket
But the defense ministry noted that Russia is "suffering from a worsening shortage of counter-battery radars, especially its modern Zoopark-1M. Only a handful of the originally deployed Zoopark fleet are likely to remain operational in Ukraine."According to an analysis by the open-source intelligence site Oryx, at least 38 Russian radars have been destroyed, damaged, or captured in Ukraine. This includes as few as eight Zoopark-1Ms, high-value systems that allow Russia to track and detect Ukrainian munitions, though they are vulnerable to detection because of their active electromagnetic signature. A counter-battery radar is designed to detect incoming fire and almost immediately estimate the position from which it was fired, allowing artillery to rapidly return fire before the enemy crews move their guns. Britain's defense ministry said Ukrainian forces earlier this month had destroyed a Zoopark near the location of Russia's 58th Combined Arms Army (58 CAA), which is fending off Ukrainian advances along the southern Zaporizhzhia region's front lines. The unit was previously under the command of Maj. Gen. Ivan Popov, who was recently removed from his post after he called attention to Russia's lack of counter-battery and artillery reconnaissance capabilities, which he said has led to Moscow's troops suffering widespread casualties on the battlefield. Ultimately, the Kremlin's military leadership decided it was better to fire Popov instead of actually deal with his concerns. "The priority Popov apparently gave to this problem highlights the continued centrality of artillery in the war," Britain's defense ministry said. Ukrainian service members of the 55th Separate Artillery Brigade fire a Caesar self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near the town of Avdiivka in Donetsk region, Ukraine May 31, 2023.
Despite being heavily armed by the West, Ukraine has still found itself outgunned at times during the artillery duels with Russia and has lost a combined 69 radars and communications systems, including several variants of the US-provided AN/TPQ radars, according to data compiled by Oryx.
To fight these never-ending artillery battles, Ukraine is rapidly burning through its stockpiles of artillery ammunition while also facing strained domestic production from its NATO backers. To help alleviate the dwindling supply, the Biden administration announced earlier this month that it will send Kyiv's military deadly — albeit controversial — cluster munitions. "We base our security assistance decision on Ukraine's needs on the ground, and Ukraine needs artillery to sustain its offensive and defensive operations," White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters in announcing the munitions as part of a new security assistance package. "Artillery is at the core of this conflict," he added. "Ukraine is firing thousands of rounds a day to defend against Russian efforts to advance and also to support its own efforts to retake its sovereign territory."

Israel's workhorse Merkava tank could soon be refilling foreign arsenals depleted by the war in Ukraine
Michael Peck/ Business Insider/July 17, 2023
Israel may be about to export its workhorse Merkava tank for the first time.
Reports say Israel is in talks to sell the tank to a European and a Middle Eastern country. If exported widely, the tank could refill arsenals in countries that sent their armor to Ukraine. Israel may be about to export its Merkava tank for the first time. One customer may be an Arab country. Another could be a European nation at odds with Turkey. For now, the details are cryptic. "There are two potential countries with which we are holding advanced negotiations," Yair Koles, a retired brigadier general who heads the defense export division of Israel's Ministry of Defense, told business publication Calcalist. "I am not allowed to give the names, but one of them is on the European continent." The European nation in question is actually Cyprus, according to Israeli newspaper Haaretz, which in June cited an unnamed Cypriot official who said negotiations are underway. The Arab nation is Morocco, Spanish outlet El Espanol reported this month. Israel isn't selling the newest version of the 45-year-old Merkava tank family, the Merkava 5, or even the Merkava 4, which is used in front-line Israeli armored units. Instead, buyers would get surplus Merkava 2s manufactured in the 1980s and Merkava 3s from the 1990s.
First deployed in 1979, the Merkava is an unusual tank configured to meet Israel's specific needs. After Israeli tanks suffered heavy losses in the 1973 October War, the casualty-sensitive Israel Defense Forces designed the Merkava ("chariot" in Hebrew) to protect the crew.
The 65-ton vehicle has the engine in the front of the hull to maximize protection and is equipped with the Trophy active protection system to shoot down incoming anti-tank projectiles. There is also an armored compartment in the rear to carry six infantrymen or evacuate casualties.
The Merkava 3, 4, and 5 are armed with a powerful 120 mm cannon, though the Merkava 1 and 2 have smaller 105 mm guns. The tanks also have a 60 mm remotely operated mortar to engage infantry or fire smoke rounds.
The Merkava successfully engaged Syria's Soviet-made T-72 tanks in the 1982 Lebanon War. However, dozens of earlier Merkava models were damaged by Hezbollah anti-tank missiles in the 2006 Lebanon War, though the problem may have been with poorly trained Israeli crews as well as poor tactics.
Though Israel is small, home to less than 10 million people, it's one of the world's top 10 arms exporters. Remarkably, of Israel's nearly $13 billion in arms exports in 2022, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco — the Arab nations that signed the 2020 Abraham Accords normalizing relations with Israel — accounted for 24%, according to Israeli government figures.
Most of what Israel sells is smaller items, predominantly drones, missiles, and air-defense systems. Morocco, for example, has bought Israeli Heron surveillance UAVs and Harop kamikaze drones. The US Army uses the Trophy system to protect M1 Abrams tanks from anti-tank rockets. But a main battle tank like the Merkava? That's something else entirely. "The Merkava is significant because it's a high-profile system," Efraim Inbar, president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, told Insider. "It's not something you just put on an airplane or an armored vehicle. You can't hide it."
Exporting the Merkava raises sensitive political issues. For Morocco, acquiring an Israeli tank would be a highly visible symbol of its relatively cordial relationship with Israel. Morocco is also fighting Polisario insurgents, who are backed by neighboring Algeria, in the Western Sahara. This raises the possibility of one Arab state employing Israeli arms against another. With Cyprus, Israel would be selling tanks to a nation that has tense relations with Turkey, which invaded the northern half of Cyprus in 1974. Relations between Israel and the government of Turkish President Recep Erdogan are often contentious. (The US ending its longstanding arms embargo on Cyprus in 2022 also triggered speculation that Cyprus' Russian-made arms could go to Ukraine.) Nonetheless, the timing is propitious for Israel. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has spurred Europe to rearm its depleted militaries. Eastern European nations are sending many of their aging Soviet- and Russian-designed tanks to the Ukrainians, which means the donors will be shopping for affordable replacements — likely older tanks with a non-Russian design.
The question is whether Israel will sell Merkavas to Ukraine. For now, the answer is no. Israel is wary of antagonizing Russia, for fear that Russian forces in Syria will interfere with Israel's airstrikes against Iranian and Hezbollah targets there. Russia can also send advanced weapons, particularly S-400 anti-aircraft missiles, to Israel's arch-enemy, Iran.However, weapons also have a habit of circulating. Ukraine has received weapons and other military equipment from nearly 50 countries that originally acquired that hardware for their own armies. Russia is also getting kamikaze drones and artillery shells from Iran and North Korea. If Merkava tanks are sold overseas, they may yet end up on surprising battlefields. Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds a master's in political science. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Russia says two killed in attack on Crimea bridge
Associated Press/Mon, July 17, 2023
Vehicle traffic on the single bridge that links Russia to Moscow-annexed Crimea and serves as a key supply route for the Kremlin's forces in the war with Ukraine came to a standstill Monday after one of its sections was blown up, killing a married couple and wounding their daughter. Rail traffic across the 19-kilometer (12-mile) Kerch Bridge also stopped but resumed after about six hours. The strike was carried out by two Ukrainian sea drones, Russia's National Anti-Terrorist Committee said. Ukrainian officials were coy about taking responsibility, as they have been in past strikes. But in what appeared to be a tacit acknowledgment, Ukrainian Security Service spokesman Artem Degtyarenko said in a statement that his agency would reveal details of how the "bang" was organized after Ukraine has won the war.The attack was the second major strike on the bridge since October, when a truck bomb blew up two of its sections. Video posted by Crimea 24 online news channel showed a section of the bridge tilted and hanging down, but there was no indication any portion had fallen into the water. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin told reporters that authorities are carrying out a detailed inspection of the damage before determining how long it will take to repair. The Kerch Bridge is a conspicuous symbol of Moscow's claims on Crimea and an essential land link to the peninsula, which Russia captured from Ukraine in 2014. The $3.6 billion bridge is the longest in Europe and is crucial for enabling Russia's military operations in southern Ukraine during the almost 17-month-long war. Russia has expanded its presence in Crimea since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Occasional acts of sabotage and other attacks against Russian military and other facilities on the peninsula have occurred since, with the Kremlin blaming Ukraine. The attack on the bridge comes as Ukrainian forces are trying to press a counteroffensive in several sections of the front line. It also happened just hours before Russia, as expected, announced it is halting a deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey that allows the export of Ukrainian grain during the war. Kyiv didn't initially acknowledge responsibility for last October's bombing of the bridge, either, but Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar acknowledged earlier this month that Ukraine struck it to derail Russian logistics. At the time of the attack, Moscow decried it as an act of terror and vowed to step up its own attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastructure. It targeted the Ukrainian power grid over the winter. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia's Security Council, returned to that theme on Monday, calling the Ukrainian government a "terrorist organization." "We must blow up their houses and houses of their relatives, search and eliminate their accomplices," he said. Russia's Belgorod region Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov said the attack killed a married couple from the region while their daughter was hospitalized with serious injuries. Russian authorities said the attack didn't affect the piers but damaged the decking in a section of one of the two road links. The damage appeared less serious than in October's attack that took months to repair. Andriy Yusov, a spokesman for Ukraine's military intelligence department, declined to comment Monday on the incident but said: "The peninsula is used by the Russians as a large logistical hub for moving forces and assets deep into the territory of Ukraine. Of course, any logistical problems are additional complications for the occupiers."The Security Service of Ukraine posted a redacted version of a popular lullaby, tweaked to say that the bridge "went to sleep again."

Russia halts landmark deal that allowed Ukraine to export grain at time of growing hunger
LONDON (AP/)Mon, July 17, 2023
Russia on Monday halted a breakthrough wartime deal that allowed grain to flow from Ukraine to countries in Africa, the Middle East and Asia where hunger is a growing threat and high food prices have pushed more people into poverty. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the Black Sea Grain Initiative would be suspended until demands to get Russian food and fertilizer to the world are met. An attack Monday on a bridge connecting the Crimean Peninsula to Russia was not a factor in the decision, he said. “When the part of the Black Sea deal related to Russia is implemented, Russia will immediately return to the implementation of the deal,” Peskov said. Russian representatives at the operation center for the initiative were more definitive, calling the decision “a termination,” according to a note obtained by The Associated Press. Russia has complained that restrictions on shipping and insurance have hampered its agricultural exports, but it has shipped record amounts of wheat since last year. The suspension marks the end of an accord that the U.N. and Turkey brokered last summer to allow shipments of food from the Black Sea region after Russia's invasion of its neighbor worsened a global food crisis. The initiative is credited with helping reduce soaring prices of wheat, vegetable oil and other global food commodities. Ukraine and Russia are both major global suppliers of wheat, barley, sunflower oil and other food that developing nations rely on.
The suspension of the deal sent wheat prices up about 3% in Chicago trading, to $6.81 a bushel, which is still about half what they were at last year's peak. Prices fell later in the day. Some analysts don’t expect more than a temporary bump in food staples traded on global markets because countries such as Russia and Brazil have ratcheted up wheat and corn exports. But food insecurity worldwide and prices at local stores and markets have risen as developing countries also struggle with climate change, conflict and economic crises. Finding suppliers outside Ukraine that are farther away also could raise costs, analysts say. The grain deal provided guarantees that ships would not be attacked entering and leaving Ukrainian ports, while a separate agreement facilitated the movement of Russian food and fertilizer. Western sanctions do not apply to Moscow’s agricultural shipments, but some companies may be wary of doing business with Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he wanted to keep the initiative going even without Russia’s safety assurances for ships. “We are not afraid,” he said, adding that shipping companies told him “everyone is ready to continue supplying grain” if Ukraine and Turkey were on board. The Russian Foreign Ministry again declared the northwestern Black Sea area “temporarily dangerous.” Sergei Markov, a Moscow-based pro-Kremlin political analyst, speculated that if Ukraine doesn't heed the warnings, Russia could strike Ukrainian ports or place mines in shipping routes. The Black Sea Grain Initiative has allowed three Ukrainian ports to export 32.9 million metric tons of grain and other food to the world, according to the Joint Coordination Center in Istanbul. Russia has repeatedly complained that the deal largely benefits richer nations. JCC data shows that 57% of the grain from Ukraine went to developing nations, with the top destination being China, which received nearly a quarter of the food. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the end of the deal will result in more human suffering but that the U.N. would keep working to ensure the flow of supplies from Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine can still export by land or river through Europe, but those routes have a lower capacity and have stirred divisions among its neighbors.
“We will stay fixed on finding pathways for solutions," he told reporters. "There is simply too much at stake in a hungry and hurting world.”White House national security spokesman John Kirby blasted Moscow for pulling out of the deal and said the decision would “harm millions of vulnerable people around the world.”Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said officials were talking with Russia and that he hoped the deal would be extended. The agreement was renewed for 60 days in May, but the amount of grain and number of vessels departing Ukraine have plunged, with Russia accused of preventing new ships from participating since June 27. The last ship left Ukraine on Sunday and was inspected Monday. The war in Ukraine sent food commodity prices to record highs last year and contributed to a global food crisis, which was also tied to other conflicts, the fallout from the pandemic and climate factors. High grain prices in countries like Egypt, Lebanon and Nigeria exacerbated economic challenges and helped push millions more people into poverty or food insecurity. Rising food prices affect people in developing countries disproportionately, because they spend more of their money on meals. Poorer nations that depend on imported food priced in dollars also are spending more as their currencies weaken and they are forced to import more because of climate change. Under the deal, prices for wheat and other commodities have fallen, but food was already expensive before the war in Ukraine, and the relief hasn't trickled down to kitchen tables.“Countries such as Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia are dependent on food imports from Ukraine, so it does hamper availability and accessibility to food,” said Shashwat Saraf, the International Rescue Committee’s regional emergency director for East Africa. Now, it’s key to watch whether Russia “weaponizes” its wheat exports, said Simon Evenett, professor of international trade and economic development at the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland. As the world’s current largest wheat supplier, Russia could hike its export taxes, which “would raise world grain prices as well as allow Russia to finance more of its military campaign in Ukraine,” Evenett said. He noted that Moscow already raised them slightly this month.The grain deal has faced setbacks since it was brokered by the U.N. and Turkey. Russia pulled out briefly in November before rejoining and extending the deal.
In March and May, Russia would only renew for two months, instead of the usual four. Joint inspections meant to ensure vessels carry only grain and not weapons have slowed considerably. The amount of grain shipped per month has fallen from a peak of 4.2 million metric tons in October to over 2 million metric tons in June. Meanwhile, Russia’s wheat shipments hit all-time highs following a large harvest. The country exported 45.5 million metric tons in the 2022-2023 trade year, with another record of 47.5 million metric tons expected in 2023-2024, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates.

Turkey’s Erdogan arrives in Saudi Arabia, first stop on Gulf tour
Al Monitor/July 17, 2023
ANKARA — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrived in Jeddah on Monday, embarking upon his first regional tour after his reelection last May as Ankara scrambles to draw foreign funds to ease the country’s foreign currency crunch. Speaking before he departed to Saudi Arabia, the first leg of his tour, Erdogan said economic cooperation would be the main focus of his visits. “The primary agenda of our visits will be joint investment projects and commercial activities that we can carry out together with these countries,” he said. In Jeddah, Erdogan is set to meet with Saudi King Salman bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as well as other Saudi officials. Following Jeddah, the Turkish president will travel to Qatar on Tuesday to meet with Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and then to the United Arab Emirates to meet with Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Nearly 200 Turkish businessmen are accompanying Erdogan during the tour. “Our bilateral trade volume with Gulf countries has increased from $1.6 billion to approximately $22 billion over the last 20 years,” Erdogan said, adding that his tour is aimed at raising these figures further through the business forums to be organized as part of his visit. Erdogan’s visit comes at a time when the Turkish government is scrambling to draw foreign funds to the country in a bid to ease Turkey’s foreign currency crunch amid unruly inflation, which stands at 38.2%.
Turkey’s Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek toured the three countries over the past week in a bid to lay foundations ahead of Erdogan’s visit.

Erdogan says he believes Putin wants continuation of grain deal
ISTANBUL (Reuters)/Mon, July 17, 2023
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday that he believed Russian President Vladimir Putin wants the continuation of a deal allowing the export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, after Moscow suspended its participation. Erdogan added that he hoped for progress on the issue after Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov talk on Monday. The grain deal, brokered by the United Nations and Turkey last July, aimed to alleviate a global food crisis by allowing Ukrainian grain blocked by the Russia-Ukraine conflict to be exported safely. Russia suspended its participation in the deal on Monday, the Kremlin said, adding that the part of the agreement concerning Russia had not been implemented. "Despite the statement made today, I believe Russian President Putin wants the continuation of this humanitarian bridge," Erdogan said, adding that the two men would speak on Erdogan's return from his trip to Gulf countries on Wednesday. "We will also discuss how we can act to open the way for the transport of Russian fertiliser and grain," Erdogan said, adding the two leaders would meet in person in Turkey in August. The grain deal has been extended several times, but was due to expire on Monday. Russia has been saying for months that conditions for its extension had not been fulfilled. Moscow has long complained that obstacles remained to its exports of grain and fertiliser, even though these were not directly sanctioned by the West, and presented a series of demands that it said had not been met. Moscow said it would return to the agreement as soon as the Russian part of the agreement is fulfilled.

Turkey's Erdogan says he is open to meeting with Syria's Assad
ISTANBUL (Reuters)/Mon, July 17, 2023
Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday that he was open to a meeting with Syrian President Bashar al Assad, but that setting the withdrawal of Turkish troops from Syrian territory as a precondition for talks was "unacceptable". Turkey has been the biggest military and political ally of the Syrian opposition, which controls the last rebel bastion in northwest Syria. Ankara has set up dozens of bases and deployed thousands of troops in northern Syria, preventing the Russian-backed Syrian army from re-taking the region. Speaking to reporters in Istanbul ahead of his departure for a three-day visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and United Arab Emirates, Erdogan said that Turkey has never "shut the door" to discussions with the Syrian government. "We can hold a four-party summit (with Syria, Russia and Iran), and I am also open to a meeting with Assad. What matters here is their approach toward us," Erdogan said. Damascus' condition of a complete withdrawal of Turkish forces for such a meeting was "unacceptable", he added. Erdogan first said earlier this year that he may meet Syrian President Assad as part of a new peace process, but Assad said in March that there was no point in a meeting with Erdogan until Turkey's "illegal occupation" ended. "We are fighting against terrorism there. How can we withdraw when our country is under continuous threat from terrorists along our border... We expect a fair approach," Erdogan said. The defence ministers of the two countries met late last year for the highest-level talks between the two neighbours, whose governments have been at odds since 2011, when the Arab Spring uprisings reached Syria and plunged the country into war. The foreign ministers of the two countries also met in Moscow in May ahead of Turkish elections as part of talks overseen by Russia.

The military chiefs of Pakistan and Iran agree to work together to stop border attacks by militants
ISLAMABAD (AP)/Mon, July 17, 2023
The top military leadership of Pakistan and neighboring Iran agreed to step up cooperation and intelligence sharing and take “effective actions” to prevent attacks by separatist militants along their porous border, Pakistani officials said Monday. The agreement was reached during a visit by Pakistan’s powerful army chief Gen. Asim Munir to Tehran over the weekend, officials said. Munir traveled to Tehran on a two-day visit following a surge in attacks in the country's southwestern Baluchistan province, which shares a long border with Afghanistan and Iran. Pakistan’s relations with Iran have witnessed ups and downs in recent years because of cross-border attacks by Pakistani militants. Small separatist groups have been behind a long-running insurgency calling for gas and oil-rich Baluchistan’s independence from the central government in Islamabad. Pakistani anti-Iran militants have also targeted the Iranian border in recent years, increasing friction between the countries. In a statement, Pakistan's military said that Munir met with the Iranian army’s chief of staff, Gen. Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, and called on Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. It said the sides agreed that terrorism was a common threat. “They vowed to eradicate (the) menace of terrorism in the border areas through intelligence sharing and effective actions against the terrorists’ networks, and explore avenues for enhancing cooperation in the security domain,” the statement said. The visit also comes as tensions have increased between Pakistan and Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers, who have been accused by Islamabad of sheltering a key outlawed militant group called Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP. The group has become emboldened since the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan in 2021.

Iran's morality police return after protests to impose Islamic dress on women
Associated Press/Mon, July 17, 2023
Iranian authorities have announced a new campaign to force women to wear the Islamic headscarf and morality police returned to the streets 10 months after the death of a woman in their custody sparked nationwide protests. The morality police had largely pulled back following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini last September, as authorities struggled to contain mass protests calling for the overthrow of the theocracy that has ruled Iran for over four decades. The protests largely died down earlier this year following a heavy crackdown in which over 500 protesters were killed and nearly 20,000 detained. But many women continued to flout the official dress code, especially in the capital, Tehran, and other cities. The morality police were only rarely seen patrolling the streets, and in December, there were even some reports — later denied — that they had been disbanded. Authorities insisted throughout the crisis that the rules had not changed. Iran's clerical rulers view the hijab as a key pillar of the Islamic revolution that brought them to power, and consider more casual dress a sign of Western decadence. On Sunday, Gen. Saeed Montazerolmahdi, a police spokesman, said the morality police would resume notifying and then detaining women not wearing hijab in public. In Tehran, the men and women of the morality police could be seen patrolling the streets in marked vans. Late Saturday, police arrested Mohammed Sadeghi, a young and relatively unknown actor, in a raid on his home that he appears to have broadcast on social media. Earlier, he had posted a video in response to another online video showing a woman being detained by the morality police. "Believe me, if I see such a scene, I might commit murder," he said. The website of the semi-official Hamshahri daily, which is affiliated with the Tehran municipality, said he was arrested for encouraging people to use weapons against the police. The battle over the hijab became a powerful rallying cry last fall, with women playing a leading role in the protests. The demonstrations quickly escalated into calls for the overthrow of Iran's clerical rulers, whom the mostly young protesters accuse of being corrupt, repressive and out of touch. Iran's government blamed the protests on a foreign conspiracy, without providing evidence. Several Iranian celebrities joined the protests, including prominent directors and actors from the country's celebrated film industry. Several Iranian actresses were detained after appearing in public without the hijab or expressing support for the protests. In a recent case, actress Azadeh Samadi was barred from social media and ordered by a court to seek psychological treatment for "antisocial personality disorder" after appearing at a funeral two months ago wearing a cap on her head.

Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 17-18/2023
Hamas boasts of anti-vehicle ‘EFPs’ in Jenin; Iran’s hand looms in background - analysis
Seth bJ. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/July 17/2023
The EFP has the stamp of the Iranian octopus on it, an octopus now saying it wants to try to do to Jenin what it did to the region.
An article at the pro-Iran Al-Mayadeen media highlighted the presence of new weapons among Hamas members, especially since it was translated to English to reach a broader audience. The claim of new weapons, then, should be viewed in the context of Israel’s operation in Jenin earlier this month and Iran’s attempts to increase threats in the West Bank.
The report claimed that the “Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, announces that its fighters in Jenin have developed an Explosively Formed Penetrator (EFP), or a self-forming warhead in Jenin.” The article adds that “the device newly introduced to the West Bank city of Jenin has armor-piercing capabilities which marks a huge leap forward for the Palestinian resistance in the city. Shawaz [‘flame’ in Arabic] looks to be similar to similar devices that were used by the Iraqi resistance against the US forces during their occupation.”
The article details more background, claiming that the weapons were used in Lebanon against Israeli forces and that their presence in Jenin “indicates a possible growing collaboration between various parties in the axis of resistance… Such devices possess capabilities to penetrate up to 200mm. of steel, according to some US military data. Al-Qassam Brigades stated the device was used to target occupation army vehicles in their last raid on Jenin and the Jenin refugee camp on July 3.”The significance of a pro-Iran publication boasting that Hamas has access to weapons that were used in Lebanon and Iraq is important because they fold into the larger Iran scope of influence in the region. These are weapons with an Iranian origin, Iranian expertise and pedigree, that are part of Iran’s overall military-industrial-terror strategy in the Middle East.
Iran has in the past helped Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad expand their rocket arsenals. It has also been involved in sending drone technology to its proxies, especially the Houthis, but also the Iranian-backed militias in Iraq; the goal of this article is to say that this method has now expanded to the West Bank. Analyses published over the last months raised the curtain on Jenin becoming more like Gaza: Rocket threats from the area have been reported, even though the rockets are so far rudimentary – as the rockets from Gaza once were.
EFPs central part of the Iranian octopus in the region
The fact remains that pro-Iranian media is now saying that Hamas is working with engineers “day and night to produce the largest number of containers and develop new models for them,” and that “the device, which was recently introduced to Jenin, has armor-piercing capabilities, a huge leap forward for Palestinian resistance.” In June, The Washington Post reported that Iran was seeking to escalate attacks in Syria against US forces. Other reports from around that time indicate that US officials believed Iran was trying to move armor-piercing EFPs to Syria to target American military vehicles. In 2016, Michael Knights writing at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, noted that Iran “began sending advanced armor-piercing EFPs into the kingdom [of Saudi Arabia] last year and has provided cells in Bahrain with the know-how for manufacturing such weapons themselves – a stark warning to the Saudis and a harbinger of what may unfold if they do in fact upgrade their military commitment in Syria.” The EFP is a system that has the stamp of the Iranian octopus on it, an octopus that is now saying it wants to try to do to Jenin and the northern West Bank what has been done in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen – a tentacle of Iran.

Palestinians: Victims of Apartheid in Lebanon
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/July 17, 2023
"The procedures and restrictions imposed on the entry of building materials into the Palestinian camps in Lebanon are in contradiction with the principles of human rights." — Hassan al-Sayyida, a researcher and human rights activist at the Palestinian Association for Human, palinfo.com, July 10,2023.
This is the second case within a year in which a Palestinian has been arrested on charges of a "construction violation." On July 28, 2022, Lebanese authorities arrested another Palestinian woman, Amal Mousa, also on the pretext of building a house without a permit. Mousa was released only after she was forced to demolish the foundations of her house.
Israel, too, has demolished illegal homes -- but for Arabs and Jews.... Israel is not even doing much about the massive illegal building by Arabs, who have reportedly seized 30% of the land unpoetically called "Area C": land that by mutual agreement in the Oslo Accords belongs wholly to Israel. One can go to the edge of Jerusalem and see literally countless illegal apartment towers built by Arabs, as well as smaller illegal buildings that extend south for miles. "At present [2022]... there are 81,317 illegal Arab-built structures in this area," according to the research group Regavim. Moreover, Israel never arrests or imprisons anyone because of a construction violation.
[T]here is an urgent need to build new houses for Palestinians in Lebanon, "especially since the existing houses are not sufficient and do not meet the demographic increase in the population." Many Palestinians, as in the case of Um Wissam, are forced to build homes on top of the roofs of existing structures. — Palestinian Association for Human Rights, refugeesps.net, July 10, 2023.
"Palestine refugees in Lebanon face substantial challenges to the full enjoyment of their human rights. They are socially marginalized, have very limited civil, social, political, and economic rights, including restricted access to the Government of Lebanon's public health, educational and social services and face significant restrictions on their right to work and right to own property." — UNRWA, reporting that the Palestinians are still prevented from employment in 39 professions such as medicine, law, and engineering.
"Palestine refugees consistently report experiencing discrimination in hiring practices and opportunities for employment. They are faced with informal restrictions on the types of jobs and industries they can be hired for due to additional bureaucracy around contracts and work permits, and discrimination..." – UNRWA.
"[I]t is difficult to deny that the Palestinian refugees living in Lebanon have been subjected to systematic discrimination and to the violation of their basic human rights. The Palestinian refugees have been forced into abject poverty by the Lebanese government's denial of their rights to remunerated employment, social security, public health care, public education and property ownership. The argument that Palestinian integration into Lebanese society would either cause them to lose their right of return or would upset Lebanon's sectarian balance is just a pretext the Lebanese government uses to discriminate against the Palestinians, whom many Lebanese blame for causing the Lebanese civil war. The Palestinian refugees are not asking for citizenship; they are simply asking to be afforded the rights given to other refugees around the world." — The Palestine-Israel Journal , 2008.
The case of Um Wissam not only exposes the mistreatment of Palestinians at the hands of an Arab country, but also the double standards of the international community and all the so-called pro-Palestinian individuals and groups.
Had Um Wissam been arrested by the Israeli authorities, her story would have made headlines on the front page of every major media outlet in the West. Her plight would have been highlighted by the United Nations, by every so-called human rights organization, and by every anti-Israel group on university campuses across the US and the West. Foreign journalists would have been standing in line outside her family's home while hoping to further trash Israel by using the details of her case. But as Um Wissam had the misfortune of being imprisoned by Lebanese authorities, her case holds no interest for the West.
The recent arrest of a 64-year-old Palestinian woman by the Lebanese authorities, a resident of Rashidieh Refugee Camp (pictured), for the crime of lacking a building permit, has again highlighted Lebanon's policy of systematic discrimination against the Palestinians living there. (Photo by Patrick Baz/AFP via Getty Images)
The recent arrest of a 64-year-old Palestinian woman by the Lebanese authorities has again highlighted Lebanon's policy of systematic discrimination against the Palestinians living there.
The arrest is yet another example of the hypocrisy of some Arabs who continue to pay lip service to the Palestinians while depriving these very Palestinians of basic rights. Lebanon deserves an award for excellence in hypocrisy and double standards. The Lebanese government hardly misses an opportunity to condemn Israel for defending itself against Palestinian terrorism. Yet, this is the same Lebanon that has for decades practiced systematic discrimination against Palestinians and keeps them in squalid, ghetto-like camps surrounded by barbed wire and walls.
This is also the same Lebanon that has thrown a Palestinian woman into jail for the crime of lacking a building permit.
Nasra Musa Mubarakeh, also known as Um Wissam, a resident of Rashidieh Refugee Camp, the second-most populous Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon, was arrested by security forces on July 3 on charges of building a house without a permit.
In 1997, the Lebanese authorities issued a decree that banned Palestinians refugees from transporting building materials into refugee camps in the southern part of the country. The Lebanese authorities claimed that the purpose of the ban was to prevent Palestinians from establishing permanent residence in Lebanon. The banned materials included cement, iron rebar, gravel, sand, tiles, aluminum, paint, water tanks, and electricity generators. The ban specified that such materials could be confiscated and that Palestinians who violated the ban could be detained, questioned and fined.
The arrest of Um Wissam has triggered a wave of protests by Palestinians living in Lebanon. Palestinian activists, noting that Um Wissam suffers from chronic diseases and takes medication, called for her immediate release.
Her family urged Palestinian factions to "take immediate action to release her, after the Lebanese authorities refused to do so until after they had demolished her house inside the camp." In an audio recording, Um Wissam's grandson appealed to all concerned Palestinians to work for the release of his grandmother, held by the Lebanese authorities in Alma Prison in northern Lebanon.
"Any person has the right to live in a house worthy of him; it is one of the necessities of human life," said Hassan al-Sayyida, a researcher and human rights activist at the Palestinian Association for Human Rights.
Um Wassam's family urged Palestinian factions to "take immediate action to release her, after the Lebanese authorities refused to do so until after they had demolished her house inside the camp."
Israel, too, has demolished illegal homes -- but for Arabs and Jews. Additionally, in Israel, there is no decree or law that bans construction material from entering Arab towns. Israel is not even doing much about the massive illegal building by Arabs, who have reportedly seized 30% of the land unpoetically called "Area C": land that by mutual agreement in the Oslo Accords belongs wholly to Israel. One can go to the edge of Jerusalem and see literally countless illegal apartment towers built by Arabs, as well as smaller illegal buildings that extend south for miles. "At present [2022]... there are 81,317 illegal Arab-built structures in this area," according to the research group Regavim. Moreover, Israel never arrests or imprisons anyone because of a construction violation.
Al-Sayyida stressed the need for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) "to move quickly to address the issue, and to assume its legal responsibilities towards the Palestinian refugee community in Lebanon."
In a statement to Quds Press, al-Sayyida also called on the Palestinian forces and factions to "carry out their duty towards our Palestinian people in Lebanon, and to work by all means for the urgent release of the Palestinian woman who is being held by the Lebanese authorities to this day."
"The procedures and restrictions imposed on the entry of building materials into the Palestinian camps in Lebanon are in contradiction with the principles of human rights," Al-Sayyida said.
This is the second case within a year in which a Palestinian has been arrested on charges of a "construction violation." On July 28, 2022, Lebanese authorities arrested another Palestinian woman, Amal Mousa, also on the pretext of building a house without a permit. Mousa was released only after she was forced to demolish the foundations of her house.
The Palestinian Association for Human Rights called on the Lebanese authorities to adopt a humane approach that takes into account the rights of Palestinian refugees with regard to construction that is subject to urgent humanitarian and demographic requirements.
The group pointed out that there is an urgent need to build new houses for Palestinians in Lebanon, "especially since the existing houses are not sufficient and do not meet the demographic increase in the population," and noted that many Palestinians, as in the case of Um Wissam, are forced to build homes on top of the roofs of existing structures.
According to UNRWA:
"Palestine refugees in Lebanon face substantial challenges to the full enjoyment of their human rights. They are socially marginalized, have very limited civil, social, political, and economic rights, including restricted access to the Government of Lebanon's public health, educational and social services and face significant restrictions on their right to work and right to own property."
UNRWA also reported that the Palestinians are still prevented from employment in 39 professions such as medicine, law, and engineering:
"Palestine refugees consistently report experiencing discrimination in hiring practices and opportunities for employment. They are faced with informal restrictions on the types of jobs and industries they can be hired for due to additional bureaucracy around contracts and work permits, and discrimination..."
In 2001, the Lebanese government passed law 296, adjusting the rules on foreign ownership of property. The law does not specifically mention Palestinians, but it prohibits "any person who is not a national of a recognized state... acquiring real estate property of any kind" -- and therefore nicely serves to ban Palestinians living in Lebanon from buying or selling homes.
Lebanese journalist Sawssan Abou-Zahr wrote:
"Palestinians are legally prohibited from possessing or inheriting property even if they have Lebanese mothers and/or wives! They literally have nothing in Lebanon."
The Palestinian camps in Lebanon, she noted, are ghetto-like settlements, sometimes surrounded by segregation walls, barbed wire and military surveillance: "The camps are overcrowded and unorganized concrete blocks with decaying infrastructure."
"[I]t is difficult to deny that the Palestinian refugees living in Lebanon have been subjected to systematic discrimination and to the violation of their basic human rights," the Palestine-Israel Journal noted back in 2008.
"The Palestinian refugees have been forced into abject poverty by the Lebanese government's denial of their rights to remunerated employment, social security, public health care, public education and property ownership. The argument that Palestinian integration into Lebanese society would either cause them to lose their right of return or would upset Lebanon's sectarian balance is just a pretext the Lebanese government uses to discriminate against the Palestinians, whom many Lebanese blame for causing the Lebanese civil war. The Palestinian refugees are not asking for citizenship; they are simply asking to be afforded the rights given to other refugees around the world."
The case of Um Wissam not only exposes the mistreatment of Palestinians at the hands of an Arab country, but also the double standards of the international community and all the so-called pro-Palestinian individuals and groups.
Had Um Wissam been arrested by the Israeli authorities, her story would have made headlines on the front page of every major media outlet in the West. Her plight would have been highlighted by the United Nations, by every so-called human rights organization, and by every anti-Israel group on university campuses across the US and the West. Foreign journalists would have been standing in line outside her family's home while hoping to further trash Israel by using the details of her case. But as Um Wissam had the misfortune of being imprisoned by Lebanese authorities, her case holds no interest for the West.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

The Messages of the NATO Summit
Dr. Nassif Hitti/Asharq Al Awsat/July 17/2023
The NATO summit held on July 11 and 12 sent many messages. The first was sent through the choice of location. Vilnius is the capital of Lithuania, the first republic to declare its independence and withdraw from the Soviet Union, on March 11, 1970. The other Soviet republics born from the disintegration and fall of the Soviet Union then followed. The summit was held against the backdrop of the rise of a new Cold War climate between NATO and the Russian Federation - a war fueling the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and being fueled by it.
The second of these messages was that Türkiye would not veto Sweden’s NATO membership. Sweden, a neutral state during the previous Cold War, has now joined NATO. There are two fundamental factors that explain Türkiye’s withdrawal of its veto, which had been standing in the way of Sweden’s membership.Firstly, it obtained, with the help and mediation of the United States, the Secretary-General of NATO, and other members of the alliance, guarantees from Sweden regarding the latter’s support for the Kurdish opposition, which manifests itself in various forms. Türkiye considers this support a threat to its national security, regardless of the justifications for allowing certain activities of this opposition on its soil that Sweden had put forward in the past.
The guarantees were crystallized by the mediators, resulting in agreements aimed at prohibiting or containing these activities, which are nonetheless seen differently by Sweden and Türkiye. While the former sees most of these activities as political, Türkiye believes that regardless of its form, Kurdish opposition activity is a threat to its national security.
The second factor is that the Europeans promised that they would reinvigorate Türkiye’s ongoing application to join the European Union, which had been stalled since 2018 for a variety of reasons. Türkiye’s accelerated accession to the EU would ensure political, economic, and other gains for it. Its role, not only in Europe but also specifically in the Middle East, would also bolster its geopolitical and economic position in relation to both regions and the links between them.
The summit also saw further breakthroughs between Türkiye and Greece, which now supports the former joining the EU. The Turkish President announced that the Parliament should vote on allowing Sweden to join once it reconvenes in October.
The third message was not, as Ukraine had hoped, support for its NATO membership. Ukraine was promised that it would not be made to take the traditional path of accession, which consists of a preparatory stage during which membership requirements are to be fulfilled and are then assessed to determine the viability of membership. Instead, Ukraine was promised that it would be allowed to join the alliance after the ongoing war ended.
The G7 countries within the alliance “gifted” reassurances to Kyiv - all the military assistance and security guarantees Ukraine needed, including the provision of more advanced weaponry over the course of the war.
Many believe that the gesture of promising accession aims to reinforce Ukraine’s negotiating position vis a vis Moscow when the time comes, allowing for concessions from Russia that would make peace (founded on a complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine), possibly in exchange for the latter foregoing NATO membership.
Everyone now realizes, though some were late to do so, that Moscow will not acquiesce to Ukraine becoming a NATO member under any circumstances. Its membership is a bargaining chip to be used in the future. Meanwhile, NATO will continue to provide the weapons and guarantees needed to support Ukraine in the war it is fighting, with NATO, against Russia. The fourth message is that NATO was reborn after the ongoing war at the heart of the struggle between the West and Russia in Europe. This comes after it had been becoming less relevant since the Cold War. Efforts to revive and expand towards the Asia-Pacific region are underway as the US seeks to contain China’s vigorous and accelerating geopolitical rise and tensions with Russia escalate. Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev has warned of the risks of sliding into a third world war.
While this will almost certainly not happen, the escalation of tensions between the West and Russia indicates that we could see an expansion in both the geographical scope and firepower used in the ongoing war.
Another indication of these risks is the decision taken by NATO that all members must spend at least 2% of their GDP on defense.
In conclusion, the Vilnius summit announced the rebirth of the Cold War regime, though it is not as chaotic as some thought or wished it would be in the recent past. It is a system that has not yet crystallized; both its rules and the form of its alliances are currently taking shape.

The Cairo Conference is a Step Forward
Faisal Mohamed Saleh/Asharq Al Awsat/July 17/2023
The prospect of international intervention has become the talk of the town in Sudan. The debate rages on in living rooms and on social media. As one would expect, the debates can be very acrimonious. Rivals accuse one another of exploiting Sudanese blood, treachery, taking orders from abroad, collusion with foreign actors, and seeking political victory at any cost, even if this means destroying the entire country. International intervention is explained differently by different actors, and it is clearly not categorically rejected in principle. However, parties support or oppose it based on whether it would serve their interests, and those opposed to intervention limit it to boots on the ground. That is why government spokespersons rejected the foreign intervention of IGAD while welcoming the intervention of neighboring countries. They also previously welcomed the negotiations in Jeddah. Meanwhile, Rapid Support Forces spokespersons have claimed they would support any settlement that would lead to a ceasefire, but no real test has been put to this position.
One fact that some ignore is that domestic efforts to contain the conflict and avert military clashes were crushed once the first shots were fired on the morning of April 15. Both sadly and astonishingly, these efforts continued into the early dawn. A decisive meeting had been scheduled for Saturday afternoon, but, of course, it was not held. Following an “if you’re not with us, you’re against us” mentality, groups opposed to the war were vilified, trust collapsed, and domestic efforts were rendered futile, opening the door to regional and international efforts.
The faction most closely linked to the current government and military leadership considered the resolutions of the IGAD Quartet Group of Countries, which met in Addis Ababa on July 10, a form of unwarranted foreign meddling. IGAD did not recognize the Sudanese government as fighting an insurgency, which is what the government wanted. Instead, they dubbed both sides “conflicting parties.” Moreover, IGAD declined the government’s request that IGAD replace Group Chairman Kenyan President William Ruto, whom the government has called biased. Finally, the resolutions suggested that East African Response Force (EARF) forces could be deployed to keep the belligerents apart.
On the other hand, all parties welcomed the conference of Sudan’s neighboring countries, which Egypt called for and held on Thursday, July 13. Although it also called both sides “conflicting parties,” it called for a ceasefire and broad consultations involving civil forces as well. Moreover, it proposed a mechanism for foreign ministers to meet to follow up on the recommendations. Those who were excited by this development overlooked the fact that no Sudanese faction, including the government, was invited. Instead, they highlighted a paragraph stating that the conflict is a domestic Sudanese matter. No one stopped to ask why the presidents of seven countries and two international organizations were convening to discuss a domestic Sudanese matter...?
What matters now is that the statement of the Cairo conference, although it added nothing new, was accepted by all the belligerents and political forces. More importantly, the conference gave Egypt its role back and opened a window. Indeed, it had been excluded from the Quartet Committee, which included Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United States, and the United Nations. This led Egypt to oppose the Framework Agreement and attempt to create an alternative.
It is now obvious that the prospects of IGAD mediation have significantly dwindled. In fact, it may no longer be a viable option, as it is rejected by one of the factions. Moreover, the organization and committee members, especially Kenyan President William Ruto and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, have burned their bridges with the government with their stern statements regarding the leadership vacuum in Sudan. It would be difficult to convince the international community to back international or regional military intervention that does not have the consent of the Sudanese government. If such an intervention were to be made, it would invigorate and mobilize extremist Islamic groups.
Furthermore, it is hard to wrap one’s head around the insistence on the Kenyan President continuing to lead the Group when he could have left the position to someone else, thereby making IGAD intervention more viable.
Two options remain on the table. One is that the mechanism proposed by neighboring countries gets adopted swiftly and both parties are compelled to hold negotiations under the auspices of IGAD, the African Union, and the United Nations - this could succeed given the strong relationship between the government, especially General Burhan, and Egypt. Alternatively, talks could be held again in Jeddah after it is supplemented with IGAD proposals and those put forward after the summit that brought together neighboring countries. Jeddah talks are also viable because they are backed by the United States and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, both of which hold significant political and economic weight in the region.
Whether the belligerents meet in Jeddah or sit at a table in neighboring countries, the outcome is similar. A consensus has developed around the need for a ceasefire, separating the forces, and dialogue that engages civic forces to discuss the future of the country without the use of force.

Tayyip Erdogan...the Turkish Prigozhin
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/July 17/2023
As soon as Yevgeny Prigozhin mutinied inside Russia, another Yevgeny Prigozhin mutinied abroad. The latter is named Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president who was re-elected less than two months ago.
Erdogan’s mutiny, per many observers, came within the broader context of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declining prestige after the limitations of his ability to crush Ukraine were exposed. This led to the emergence of small Prigozhins who have begun to defy the master of the Kremlin across the globe. Overnight, he went from “strong” and “shrewd” to “weak.”Some of those who had been enthusiasts have become more lukewarm supporters, and others went from supporters to neutrals, while some neutrals became skeptical and sometimes even hostile. As for those who had been looking for more indications, they found them in the dismissal of 58th Army Commander General Ivan Popov from his position in Ukraine as a punishment for the frankness with which he spoke to his military leadership about the miserable state of Moscow’s war.
However, Erdogan went further than anyone else. He has taken extremely audacious positions, and it seems that the Russians have yet to recover from the shock. This may explain why two voices emerged - one that reflects Putin’s character and another that spoke the language of adapting to the withering of his wings. The first statement came out of Viktor Bondarev’s mouth, the head of the Russian Federation Council Committee on Defense and Security. He admitted that “The events of the past weeks, unfortunately, clearly demonstrate that Türkiye is gradually and steadily continuing to turn from a neutral country into an unfriendly one.” Such behavior, he added, “could not be called anything other than a stab in the back.”
The second statement came from Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who claims “no one should be surprised” by Türkiye’s position. “Türkiye is a member of the North Atlantic Alliance. It has its obligations and has to adhere to its obligations. This has never been a secret to us and we had no illusions about this,” he explained.
In fact, Erdogan has done very many things over a very brief period. When he received Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, he said that Ukraine “deserves” to join NATO, going further than NATO and the United States themselves. Erdogan also released the five Ukrainian battalion commanders who defended the Azovstal Metallurgical Combine in Mariupol before Russian forces took control. It had been agreed, as part of the framework for prisoner exchange, that they would remain in Türkiye until the end of the war.
Erdogan approving Sweden’s NATO membership was no less painful. Türkiye did not just appease Sweden at Vilnius, it also introduced what Erdogan called a “completely new phase” in its relationship with the United States. And, on the sidelines, it made a breakthrough with Greece.
Other factors that encouraged the Turkish president to take this path have been mentioned. He has become more confident after winning pivotal elections, and he is surrounded by a trio famous for its European leanings, i.e., Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, and intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin.
Nonetheless, Putin’s misery remains a more compelling explanation of what has happened and is happening. To appreciate just how far he has come, we must look at the archive of statements that Erdogan has made over the seven years since the coup attempt. Over this period, he called the Americans and Europeans many names, not excluding epithets like “crusaders” and “Nazis;” he also affirmed that he would not comply with the decisions of the European Court of Human Rights and even went as far as declaring that he was willing to disregard joining the European Union. In fact, no Western leader, including Joe Biden, was spared his insults and slander. The truth is that there is little Putin can do about this aggressive shift. He cannot afford to do without the safe haven that Türkiye provides Russian oligarchs, who have become untouchables in the West, nor can he forgo the access to the European market that Türkiye could provide after the Nord Stream Pipeline was destroyed. There are at least three precedents that suggest that Russia is willing to take slaps to the face from Türkiye. One is Hakan Fidan’s meeting with the exiled Tatar leader Mustafa Kerimoglu, which the Kremlin simply ignored. The second is that Moscow did not withdraw from the “Black Sea Grain Initiative” after it had threatened to. As for the third, it has provided Kyiv with combat drones, missile launch systems, and armoured vehicles; and the Turkish drone manufacturer Bayraktar, which is owned by Erdogan’s son-in-law, has announced plans to build a drone factory in Ukraine. While Putin is expected to accept Erdogan’s invitation to visit Türkiye next month despite all of this, the latter is also expected to reap his rewards. He has a long list of demands. Few will be met, while most will be used to persuade the Turkish public that their president did not offer free concessions. Türkiye’s economic conditions will probably improve, and Ankara will likely receive F-16s from the US. However, this reconciliation could unfortunately also bolster the “fight against terrorism” at the expense of other NATO roles that do not suit Erdogan.
In any case, it will be interesting to follow developments in Türkiye, and indeed the world, as Prigozhinism’s blows from all sides take their toll on Russia.

Meet Jerusalem Patriarch championing Christians rights and soon to be Cardinal
Mazal Mualem/Al Monitor/July 17/2023
Jerusalem’s Latin Patriarch Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the soon-to-be-nominated cardinal, has been spearheading the Vatican's battle against violence in Jerusalem in favor of inter-cultural/inter-religious dialogue for more than 20 years.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa (C), the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem.
JERUSALEM — On the backdrop of multiple violent incidents in Israel in recent months against Christian leaders and Christian sites, Jerusalem’s Latin Patriarch Pierbattista Pizzaballa emerges as a champion of tolerance and coexistence. Religious leaders from different dominions as well as Israeli academics recognize Pizzaballa’s engagement in establishing inter-cultural and inter-religious dialogue.
Pizzaballa, 58, will soon make history when he becomes the Catholic Church’s first cardinal whose seat is in Jerusalem. His unprecedented appointment by Pope Francis on July 9 was set against the rise in attacks on Christian clergy in Jerusalem’s Old City over the last few months. There is much hope that he will be able to lessen the violence and promote messages of reconciliation.
The Patriarch isn’t very well known to most Israelis. He is, however, a familiar and popular figure among rabbis from all denominations, top politicians and academics throughout the country. Many of them treat him as an Israeli, in part because of his fluent Hebrew and the fact that he has lived in Jerusalem for the past 30 years while filling a number of senior positions in the church.
Pizzaballa says that he was surprised by his appointment, which he first learned about when the pope announced his picks for 21 new cardinals. He was certainly aware that once news of his historic appointment became known, all sorts of explanations would be given for the reasons behind the choice.
Naturally, the first reason given was the rise of violence against Christians in Israel and in Jerusalem in particular. Last week, three youths were arrested for spitting on a Christian clergyman in Jerusalem. This was only the most recent instance of attacks on Christian clergy and even against Christian symbols in churches and monasteries.
Another possible explanation for the choice is that the pope is signaling his intent to increase his involvement in the region in a period when relations between Israelis and Palestinians are becoming more heated, as evidenced by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operation in Jenin.
In a discussion with Vatican News, Pizzaballa suggested that the decision was a gesture by the pope to give “a sign of attention from the Church of Rome toward the Mother Church, the Church of Jerusalem.” He stressed the church’s specific “vocation to universality, dialogue and encounter” and its mission to call all Christians and non-Christians to encounter and reconciliation.”
Peacemaker behind the scenes
Pizzaballa has a deep familiarity with Israeli society going back years. He has spent most of his life in Jerusalem, first arriving here at the very young age of 24. He was born in Bergamo, Italy (like Pope John XXIII), joined the Franciscan order at the age of 19 and was sent to Jerusalem just a few years later. While here, he completed a master's degree in the Bible at Hebrew University. Having studied alongside young Israelis, he mastered Hebrew and became more familiar with local society and culture. As of March 2008, he has been a member of the Vatican’s council on Christian-Jewish relations.
Relations between Christians and Jews in Jerusalem have been very stormy over the past few months. While it is only a small group of extremists that harass Christian clergy in particularly odious ways, including acts of physical violence, the fact that the phenomenon is growing is disturbing.
Pizzaballa is well aware of the complexity of Israeli politics and the rise of new forces. Thanks to his close, unmediated relationship with the two chief rabbis — David Lau and Yitzhak Yosef — Pizzaballa played a major role behind the scenes after an unauthorized violent protest on May 28 by religious Jews against Christian worshipers at the Western Wall. His dialogue with the Jewish religious leadership led to the release of a letter by Jerusalem’s Chief Rabbi Shlomo Amar condemning attacks on Christians. The letter, which was released in English, was intended to restore calm.
As if that was not enough, last month Pizzaballa met with Speaker of the Knesset Amir Ohana to discuss the issue. During this important visit, which was reported widely in the media, Ohana said that he condemns the violence unequivocally, regardless of its shape and form, in which a small group of extremists attack Christian symbols and clergy in Israel and especially in Jerusalem.
There is no doubt that Pizzaballa’s personal relationships with Israeli leaders and his ability to approach them on any matter will be of enormous importance as he enters his new position. It is almost as if it was made especially for him. He has immense personal charm and is able to speak to Israelis in colloquial Hebrew.
This was evident in April 2022 when he was the keynote speaker at a conference on antisemitism hosted by Tel Aviv University. He spoke in fluent Hebrew about the complicated historical relationship between Jews and Christians, with many candid moments, which provided insight into his views about this. In the background was the war in Ukraine, with all its historical context.
Pizzaballa chose to open his April remarks by mentioning another conference that took place two decades ago — one that generated reactions worldwide. Addressing the same Tel Aviv University, he said at the time that “if Jesus lived in the time of the Holocaust, he would also have been murdered, just like the Jews.” The host of reactions he received after that statement stayed with him for many years. “They didn’t really like that at the Vatican, but I was just stating the facts. The church was silent [during the Holocaust]. It was silent apart from a few righteous gentiles, and that is a fact,” noted Pizzaballa in his talk this past April.This immediately won his audience over. He went on to exhibit an impressive familiarity with early Jewish history and spoke frankly about the transformations that the church has undergone since 1956 when it changed its attitudes toward Jews in its historic encyclical Nostra Aetate.
He was cited last April by The Associated Press as linking the current Israeli government with the rise in violence targeting certain communities in Jerusalem. In an interview last week with Ynet, he explained, “I think that there are people who commit these acts while feeling that they have the support of some members of the [Israeli] government. I don’t think that the government thinks about us all the time. We’re not their address. I’m sure they don’t think about us.”