Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 10-11/2023
UN relays Israeli request to Lebanon to remove Hezbollah tent from disputed
BEIRUT (AP)/Mon, July 10, 2023
The commander of the U.N. peacekeeping force deployed on the tenseLebanon-Israel border relayed Monday an Israeli request to remove a tent set up by the militant Hezbollah in a disputed area, Lebanon's foreign minister said Monday. The commander of the U.N. peacekeeping force known as UNIFIL, Maj. Gen. Aroldo Lázaro, met Monday in Beirut with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. Lebanon Foreign Minister Abdallah Bouhabib said Lebanese leaders told the U.N. commander that Israel should withdraw its troops from the Lebanese part of the town of Ghajar that was captured by Israeli troops in 2006. Israel filed a complaint with the United Nations in June claiming that Hezbollah had set up tents several dozen meters (yards) inside of Israeli territory. It's unclear what was inside the tents or what they were for.
The area where the tents were erected in Chebaa Farms and the Kfar Chouba hills were captured by Israel from Syria during the 1967 Mideast war and are part of Syria’s Golan Heights that Israel annexed in 1981. The Lebanese government says the area belongs to Lebanon.
Israeli media reported earlier this month that Hezbollah evacuated one of the two tents but there has been no confirmation from the Iran-backed Lebanese group. After the meeting between Mikati and Lázaro, Bouhabib told reporters that the U.N. team has relayed the Israeli request that the tent be removed. He added that Lebanese officials told Lázaro that “we want them (Israelis) to withdraw from Ghajar that is considered Lebanese territory.”Israel captured Ghajar from Syria in the 1967 war when it took the Golan Heights. After the Israeli military ended an 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon in 2000, U.N. surveyors split Ghajar between Lebanon and the Israeli-controlled Golan, but Israel reoccupied the northern half during the 34-day war with Hezbollah in 2006.In recent weeks, Lebanese officials said that Israel has built a wall around the Lebanese part of Ghajar warning that Israel might annex it to the Israeli part of the town. Hezbollah last week issued a harsh statement calling Israel’s works around the Lebanese part of Ghajar as “dangerous” adding that the wall is separating the town “from its natural and historic surroundings in Lebanon.”Almost at the same time that the Hezbollah statement on Ghajar was issue, an anti-tank missile was fired from Lebanon near Ghajar — with some fragments landing in Lebanon and others inside Israeli territory. Israel fired shells on the outskirts of the nearby village of Kfar Chouba. Israel and Hezbollah fought to a draw in a monthlong war in Lebanon in 2006. Late last month, Hezbollah said it shot down an Israel drone flying over a village in southern Lebanon. Israel considers Hezbollah its most serious immediate threat, estimating it has some 150,000 rockets and missiles aimed at Israel.

Lebanon PM will not extend central bank governor’s mandate, office says
Reuters/July 10, 2023
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s caretaker premier Najib Mikati will not extend the term of sitting central bank governor Riad Salameh when it ends later this month, the prime minister’s office said on Monday. Salameh’s term expires on July 31, bringing an end to a 30-year tenure stained by recent charges at home and abroad of embezzlement of Lebanese public funds. He denies the charges. In a statement sent to Reuters, Mikati’s office said his position was based on current legislation which stipulates that the first vice governor would assume the governor’s duties until a new one is appointed.
“The most important thing is that no vacuum occurs at the central bank because it’s the country’s financial backbone,” the statement said. One of Lebanon’s four vice governors told Reuters they were considering quitting together if no successor is named, raising the possibility of a leaderless central bank amid a deep financial crisis. Mikati’s deputy, Saade Chami, told Reuters last week that such a threat was “dangerous” and that the vice governors should “assume their responsibility in case this appointment is not possible.” Efforts to find a successor to Salameh have been hamstrung by Lebanon’s breakdown in governance and intensifying political tensions. Central bank governors are typically appointed by the president, but parliament has been unable to elect one to follow Michel Aoun, whose term ended in late October. Parliament speaker Nabih Berri, a longtime backer of Salameh, told reporters on Monday that “necessity allows for that which is prohibited,” signalling that cabinet should appoint a governor even as it operates in a caretaker capacity. But he said he would “respect what the prime minister announced regarding neither an appointment, nor an extension.”Many Lebanese blame Salameh for Lebanon’s financial collapse, alongside the long entrenched ruling elite. Salameh says he has been scapegoated for the meltdown, which followed decades of corruption and profligate spending by politicians. Salameh has worked hand-in-glove with the elite for years. In late 2021, Mikati signalled Salameh should remain in his post even as the graft investigations against him gained traction, saying “one does not change their officers during a war.”More recently, however, Salameh has appears to be increasingly isolated.

Lebanese PM to Asharq Al-Awsat: I Won’t Ask for Extension of Salameh’s Term
Asharq Al-Awsat/10 July 2023
Only three weeks are left until the term of Lebanese Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh ends. The caretaker government of Prime Minister Najib Mikati has no choice but to implement the law that allows his first deputy, Wassim Mansouri, to succeed him. As per Lebanon’s Code of Money and Credit, the first deputy governor undertakes the post until the appointment of a new governor. In comments to Asharq Al-Awsat, Mikati said he would neither ask for another extension of Salameh’s term, nor appoint a new successor.
The solution to filling the vacuum after the end of Salameh’s term lies in applying the law that allows his deputy, Mansouri, to carry out the tasks assigned to him, the premier stressed. Mikati explained his decision, saying that he did not want to deepen the rift between the Lebanese, or widen the existing divisions over the election of a president of the republic. He expressed his surprise at political and media campaigns that blame the government for the presidential vacuum, pointing to internal divisions among the parliamentary blocs over a candidate. “There is no solution to the crises that are worsening day after day and burdening the Lebanese, except with the immediate election of a president,” Mikati told Asharq Al-Awsat. He also ruled out holding a round of consultations over the appointment of a new governor with Salameh’s term due to end on July 31. Moreover, he added that he has maintained talks with parliament Speaker Nabih Berri within the framework of coordination between the legislative and executive authorities. In this context, a senior political source said Mikati did not want to become embroiled in political disputes with any side, telling Asharq Al-Awsat that the PM wanted to give priority to addressing challenges that would save the country from its economic crisis.

Report: Qatar calls for meeting of five-nation group on Thursday
Naharnet/July 10, 2023
Qatar has invited the countries of the five-nation group on Lebanon -- the U.S., France, KSA, and Egypt -- to meet in Doha on Thursday, Nidaa-al Watan newspaper reported Monday. The daily claimed that France preferred to postpone the meeting until September, so that its presidential envoy, Jean Yves Le Drian, could complete his mission in Lebanon, while another country of the group suggested to postpone it until next week. Sources told Nidaa-al Watan that France is considering expanding the consultations to include in addition to the presidential file, dialogue, reforms and an action plan, while Saudi Arabia and Qatar prefer to limit the meeting to the presidential file and refuse any modification of the Lebanese political system that might affect the Taif Accord. The Americans, for their part, agree with Qatar on the nomination of Army chief General Joseph Aoun, the daily said.

Reports: US proposes solution for Israel-Hezbollah border row
Naharnet/July 10, 2023
The United States has proposed a solution for the latest border dispute between Israel and Hezbollah, media reports said. According to Israel’s Channel 12, the proposal is based on Hezbollah’s dismantling of two tents that Israel alleges are in Israeli territory in return for Israel’s halt of the construction of a security fence in the Ghajar village. The report said that Hezbollah would agree to the dismantling of the two tents if Israel halted the construction of the wall in Ghajar. “The escalation chances are surging as time passes, because the Israeli army and security agencies will not stand idly by in the face of Hezbollah’s provocations,” Israel’s Channel 12 added.

Israel must retreat from northern Ghajar, Lebanon tells UNIFIL
Naharnet/July 10, 2023
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib on Monday met in Beirut with UNIFIL chief Maj. Gen. Aroldo Lázaro Sáenz amid tensions with Israel on the southern border. “We discussed the security situations in the South and they relayed to us the Israeli side’s demand that the tent (that Israel says Hezbollah erected in Israeli territory) be removed. Our response was that we want them to retreat from northern Ghajar, which is considered Lebanese territory,” Bou Habib said after the talks. “From our side, we have recorded around 18 Israeli violations of the border,” he added. As for U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 and the looming renewal of UNIFIL’s mandate, Bou Habib said: “The U.N. secretary general’s report will be discussed on July 20 and UNIFIL’s mandate will be extended in the last week of August.”

Mikati holds meeting with UNIFIL Commander: Discussions on security and mandate renewal
LBCI/July 10, 2023
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, in the presence of Caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdallah Bou Habib, met on Monday with Commander of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), General Arolde Lazaro, heading a delegation, at the Grand Serail. Minister Bou Habib stated after the meeting, "We discussed the security situation in the south, and they conveyed to us the Israeli side's demand to remove the tent. We responded that we want them to withdraw from the northern part of Ghajar, which was considered Lebanese territory. From our side, we have recorded around 18 Israeli violations of the border." Regarding UN Resolution 1701 and the renewal of UNIFIL's mandate, he said, "The report of the UN Secretary-General will be discussed on July 20th, and the renewal of UNIFIL's mandate will be addressed in the last week of August."

Berri opposes al-Rahi's call for international conference on Lebanon
Naharnet/July 10, 2023
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri reiterated Monday his call for dialogue, as he stressed that "internationalizing" it needs first a domestic agreement. Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi had called last week for an international conference on Lebanon after Lebanese officials failed to hold a dialogue.
"There's no choice but to reach consensus and hold a domestic dialogue," Berri said, adding that he is waiting the visit of French envoy Jean Yves Le Drian to know how, when and where this dialogue will be held, and when to call for a presidential election session. Last month, Le Drian arrived in Beirut to seek a new push to end the political crisis that has left the country without a president for more than eight months. His visit came after Lebanese lawmakers failed for a 12th time to elect a new president, an impasse that is causing increasing exasperation in Paris as the country faces an economic and financial crisis. Le Drian is expected to return in mid-July.

Berri 'respects' Mikati's stance on Salameh term, but doesn't agree with it
Naharnet/July 10, 2023
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said Monday that a caretaker government can convene to find a solution for the leadership crisis at the central bank after the term of its governor Riad Salameh ends. "There is a constitutional text that describes what caretaking is, and it does not mean descending into vacuum," Berri said. He added that despite his different opinion, he respects prime minister Najib Mikati's choice. Mikati had earlier on Monday said that he “will not request the extension of the term of Salameh nor the appointment of a successor,” because he does not want to “deepen the rift between the Lebanese.” The term of Salameh ends this month with no successor in sight. The vice-governors of the central bank – Wassim Mansouri, Bashir Yakzan, Salim Chahine and Alexander Mouradian – have threatened to resign unless politicians swiftly name an incoming governor. “The solution for filling the vacuum is the implementation of the law that allows his deputy (Wassim) Mansouri to carry out his missions,” Mikati said. "Should the four vice governors step down, caretaker Finance Minister Youssef Khalil will ask them to act in caretaker capacity,” he added.

Mikati says won’t request extension or replacement for Salameh
Naharnet/July 10, 2023
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati has stressed that he “will not request the extension of the term of Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh nor the appointment of a successor,” because he does not want to “deepen the rift between the Lebanese.” “The solution for filling the vacuum in the Central Bank governorship upon the expiry of Salameh’s term is the implementation of the law that allows his deputy (Wassim) Mansouri to carry out his missions,” Mikati said in an interview with Asharq al-Awsat newspaper published Monday. “Whoever has another solution must present it and on my part I will not nominate any candidate for succeeding Salameh,” Mikati added. As for the resignation threat by the Central Bank’s four vice governors, the premier said that should they step down, “caretaker Finance Minister Youssef Khalil will ask them to act in caretaker capacity,” Mikati said.

Depositor storms BML bank in Beirut, takes $6500
Naharnet/July 10, 2023
A Lebanese depositor broke into BML bank in Beirut on Monday to demand his trapped savings. After storming the bank, Omar al-Awar held the branch manager hostage until he received his entire savings, a sum of $6500. In a video he took of himself inside the bank holding the manager hostage, al-Awar said he will not leave before receiving his savings, even if he'd get himself killed, threatening with a bottle of flammable liquid. The Depositors Outcry association said the depositor left the bank with $6500, and is now in the Bachoura police station, asking depositors to support him. As the small country’s crippling economic crisis continues to worsen, a growing number of Lebanese depositors have opted to break into banks and forcefully withdraw their trapped savings. Lebanon's cash-strapped banks have imposed informal limits on cash withdrawals. The break-ins reflect growing public anger toward the banks and the authorities who have struggled to reform the country's corrupt and battered economy. Three-quarters of the population has plunged into poverty in an economic crisis that the World Bank describes as one of the worst in over a century. Meanwhile, the Lebanese pound has lost 90% of its value against the dollar, making it difficult for millions across the country to cope with skyrocketing prices.

Unraveling the Central Bank puzzle: Debating responsibilities and reshaping stability in Lebanon
LBCI/July 10, 2023
Regarding the reactions to the stance of the Deputy Governors of the Central Bank of Lebanon, Riad Salameh and Wassim Mansouri, that he will not assume the duties of the Governor after July 31st and that the tendency is toward resignation if a new Governor is not appointed, sources in the Central Bank of Lebanon wondered whether the rejection of Mansouri's resignation by the Christian political forces constitutes the required Christian cover for Mansouri. The sources stated that those who accuse the Deputy Governors of evading responsibility did not pay attention to their demands for the political forces to fulfill their duties in ensuring political stability, which forms the basis for monetary stability. This can be achieved by removing the appointment of a Central Bank Governor from these political disputes and finalizing the approval of reform laws on which any new Governor would work or Mansouri himself in establishing the required stability. The sources at the Central Bank questioned what measures would be taken by the authorities if Mansouri assumed the duties of the Governor. Do they want them to continue with the banking platform or unify and liberate the exchange rate according to the demands of the International Monetary Fund? Do they want them to continue with the policy of financing the state at the expense of what remains of the foreign currency reserves, or do they want to preserve the remaining deposits? The sources clarified that if politicians want to tap into the reserves of the Central Bank of Lebanon, they should declare it clearly and document it with decisions and laws so that everyone bears the responsibility. According to documented letters since August 2020, the Deputy Governors have rejected such actions to avoid being accused one day of acting with their sole discretion and thereby compromising the depositors' funds. The sources concluded that the management of monetary policy could not be detached from an agreed-upon economic and financial plan endorsed by the political forces and based on principles, which currently needs to be made available.

Grand Mufti Derian calls for protecting military and security institutions in Lebanon
LBCI/July 10, 2023
Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdel Latif Derian has called for the protection of military and security institutions in Lebanon by filling vacancies in some of their ranks to enhance their renowned work and avoid interfering in their affairs. He stated, "Maintaining security in Lebanon is the responsibility of the army, internal security forces, and other security apparatuses that safeguard the nation and citizens and provide an atmosphere of tranquility and safety."  He emphasized that "without the awareness, wisdom, and national responsibility that these institutions and their leaders possess, the country would have fallen into the abyss of internal strife, as witnessed in Nahr al-Bared, Akkar, and previously in Khaldeh, Tayyouneh, and other regions of Lebanon."He believed that "the army, which protects the country and its borders against the Israeli enemy, should be supported in various fields." He also stressed that "preserving security is as important as the economy, which are both important lifelines." He expressed his concern about financial chaos after the end of the central bank governor's term, whose deputies threatened to resign if a new governor was not appointed. "This requires immediate solution and cannot be delayed, either by accelerating a president's election or by the deputy governors' continued responsibility in carrying out their national duties."Grand Mufti Derian received Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, heading a delegation of officers, in the presence of Bassam Affifi. General Aoun congratulated the Mufti on his return from Hajj. The occasion was an opportunity to consult on matters concerning national security and citizens' interests. General Aoun briefed him on the tasks carried out by the army in addressing security issues in various regions of Lebanon.

Vacancy in Chief of Staff Role Intensifies Concerns over Lebanon's Military Leadership
LBCI/July 10, 2023
The military council is grappling with vacancies at two key posts in addition to the Chief of Staff's position. These include the General Inspectorate headed by an Orthodox officer and the Directorate-General of Administration led by a Shiite officer. However, the continued vacancy of the Chief of Staff's role, without a horizon for electing a new chief, and just months before the end of the army commander's tenure, is considered the most dangerous, according to concerned parties. The reason for this concern lies in the importance of appointing a Chief of Staff: in the event of the army commander's absence, who takes over command? The Defense Law designates only the Chief of Staff for this role. The same law does not provide an alternative if the position of the Chief of Staff is vacant, alongside the army's command. The vacancy in both the command and Chief of Staff's post suggests a vacuum at the top of the military institution's hierarchy, like a body without a head: the absence of a command issuing orders to the army. Any security lapse could lead to instability. This situation was conveyed by the army commander to all his visitors, especially the Patriarch, who, for this reason alone, emphasized the necessity of appointing a Chief of Staff. Calls to fill the leadership vacuum in the army were backed by Mufti of the Republic, Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian, who, after his meeting with the army commander, urged the safeguarding of military and security institutions in Lebanon by filling the vacancies in some of their positions to strengthen their work. Will this urgency permit what is usually forbidden and secure a consensus for a session to appoint the caretaker government? The Free Patriotic Movement stands by its position: "The highest-ranking officer should be appointed, no need for a session." In turn, Hezbollah is not likely to change its stance: "The caretaker government is incapable of making significant decisions, including appointments."Will this situation be resolved, or is the military institution heading towards an unknown void, with unknown ramifications for the country? Or will a political compromise save the army at the last minute? These questions remain unanswered, as the impasse continues.

Qatar extends invitation for Quintet meeting: Lebanon’s presidential deadline under international spotlight
LBCI/July 10, 2023
Qatar has extended an invitation for the countries of the Quintet to meet in Doha on the 13th of this month, marking a new development in the Arab and international focus on the presidential deadline in Lebanon. While the proposed meeting date for the Quintet is still subject to consultation, the mere issuance of this invitation indicates that Lebanon remains under external scrutiny. Diplomatic sources informed "Nidaa al-Watan" that Qatar, as a member of the Quintet that originated from Paris, attached its invitation to the countries of the committee, which also includes the United States, France, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, along with a proposed agenda for the meeting next Thursday. This article was originally published in, translated from Lebanese newspaper Nidaa al-Watan.

Lebanese University Climbs in Global Rankings Amid Domestic Educational Crisis
LBCI/July 10, 2023
Despite the ongoing educational crisis plaguing Lebanon, the Lebanese University has seen a marked improvement in its global standing as per the British QS World University Rankings. In 2023, it was ranked between 601 and 650, but in 2024, it climbed to 577, a notable leap from its 2021-2022 position between 701 and 750. The rankings, which are derived from several key indicators, showcase the university's growing stature on the global stage. One crucial aspect is the professional reputation indicator, gauging the demand for Lebanese University students in the job market both in Lebanon and globally. Impressively, the university advanced to the 171st position worldwide in this area for 2024, earning it the second rank among Arab countries and the first in Lebanon, leaving behind the American University of Beirut at the 225th spot. The university also exhibited substantial progress in the academic reputation index, a measure of esteem among academic peers. It achieved a leap of 74 positions to rank 364th globally in 2024. However, despite these achievements, the university is facing immense challenges. Similar to other state institutions in the country, the Lebanese University is grappling with the effects of the government's neglect. Professors are resigning due to low pensions, and persistent faculty strikes are disrupting education, prompting students to leave. Basic amenities like electricity and water are often lacking, and the capacity for scientific research has dwindled to a maximum of two or three projects per year due to budgetary constraints. Moreover, there seems to be an absence of concrete plans and strategies to extricate the university from its current predicament. Thus, while the improved ranking may paint a rosy picture, it does not reflect the grim reality on the ground. If the current situation persists due to the lack of state support and reduced budget, the university's global standing, the quality of its education and research, and consequently the demand for its graduates in the job market could all see a significant downturn.

Mufti Derian received Army Commander, Ambassador to Algeria
NNA/July 10, 2023
Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdellatif Derian on Monday upped calls for the protection of the military and security institutions in Lebanon and for filling the vacant posts. "Had it not been for the wisdom and national responsibility these institutions and their commands enjoy, Lebanon would have witnessed internal strife in Qornet el-Sawda and Akkar, and in Khaldeh, Tayouneh, and other Lebanese regions," said Derian. "The army guarding the nation and its borders in the face of the Israeli enemy must be supported in all fields," he stressed. Touching on the financial situation, Derian voiced concerns of a financial crisis after the expiry of the term of the central bank's governor. His remarks came during the meetings he held at Dar-al-Fatwa today, respectively, with Army Commander General Joseph Aoun and a delegation of officers, and Internal Security Forces Chief Major General Imad Othman. Derian also met today with Lebanon's Ambassador to Algeria Mohammad Hassan.

Lebanon Foils Attempt to Smuggle 231 Syrians to Italy by Sea
Asharq Al-Awsat/10 July 2023
Lebanon foiled on Sunday the smuggling of 231 Syrians towards Italy by sea. In a statement, the General Directorate of the Internal Security Forces said it arrested six people for planning the illegal trip. The statement said that the ISF not only thwarted the operation, but “saved the lives of 231 souls that would have faced an unknown fate at sea.”It added that an investigation is underway in the incident. The ISF said it had received information about the planned illegal crossing days earlier.The smugglers were planning to transport the Syrians from Selaata to Italy. They were paid $6,000 to $7,000 per passenger. The ISF consequently ordered intense patrols to be deployed to foil the smuggling. At dawn on Saturday, it carried out two simultaneous operations on the al-Minieh-Dinnieh and Muhamara highways in northern Lebanon. It detained over 200 Syrians, including smugglers and migrants, and five Lebanese collaborators. The ISF announcement came a day after the army thwarted an attempt to smuggle dozens of Syrians from northern Lebanon towards Europe by sea. The military arrested five Syrians at a checkpoint in the northern town of Selaata for planning the illegal trip from Batroun. Forty-nine Syrians, including women and children, were arrested at the Deir Ammar checkpoint as they were headed to their departure from Batroun. Lebanon’s northern shores have become a launching point for human trafficking to Europe. Some attempts have been thwarted, while other journeys have succeeded in reaching Italian, Greek or Cypriot shores. Syrians make up the majority of the travelers making the dangerous sea journey. Lebanon’s shores are open for small boats that often head to sea with the migrants where they are unloaded in larger vessels in international waters.

Tens of thousands of students take exams in Lebanon, including Syrians and Palestinians
Najia Houssari/Arab News/July 10, 2023
Public school students protest ‘injustice’ of exams, having received fewer than 40 days of education amid teachers’ strikes
LEBANON: More than 43,000 students in Lebanon — including the children of Syrian and Palestinian refugees — sat the official exams for the baccalaureate certificate. The participation rate exceeded 97 percent on the first day, and the exams — covering general sciences, life sciences, economics, sociology and humanities — will continue until Thursday.
The Ministry of Education described the successful completion of the first day of exams as “an achievement” in light of the collapse of the country and its education sector. The first day witnessed a shortage of observers in some of the 236 centers across Lebanon.
FASTFACT
Lebanon’s Ministry of Education described the successful completion of the first day of exams as ‘an achievement’ in light of the collapse of the country and its education sector. This shortage was compensated for by reducing the number of observers to only one in some examination halls in the Mount Lebanon centers and by using surveillance cameras. Arab News toured some of the examination centers in Beirut and Mount Lebanon, witnessing cases in which there was a delayed delivery of exam papers. It was reported that unknown persons cut the cables of surveillance cameras in centers in the Bekaa region.
Exams were also delayed at some centers in North Lebanon because of power cuts. To prevent exam questions from leaking, committees prepared them at the headquarters of the Ministry of Education on Monday morning.
The heads of the subject committees were asked to hand over their phones before entering the examination hall, and security agencies used a device to jam sound waves around the ministry to ensure that the questions were not leaked. The exams were printed, copied immediately and distributed to the centers under security escort. Students and observers received their admission cards just a few days before the exams to prevent cheating. While some students talked about the leniency of the supervisors, others said that the questions were easy.
Lama, a student in life sciences and economics, said: “The questions were very easy, and we did not feel stressed because the observers were not strict with us.They allowed us to ask questions, but they definitely did not allow any cheating. Of course, they also did not allow us to bring our mobile phones into the examination hall.”
Rabei, a student in general sciences, said: “The math questions were not easy, but they could be answered by those who studied well. “Those of us who are taking the official exams this year were exempted from taking the intermediate certificate exam three years ago due to the COVID-19 pandemic, so we may have underestimated the official exams.But now, I am more confident in myself, and there are still two more days of exams with a day of rest in between, and hopefully everything will go well.”The academic year in Lebanon has been marred by setbacks due to continuous strikes by teachers in the public education sector to protest the collapse of the value of their salaries. Public school students received fewer than 40 days of intensive education, while private school students had a relatively stable academic year. As a result, a group of young people belonging to the Lebanese Student Union staged a protest when Education Minister Abbas Halabi visited an examination center at Shakib Arslan School in the Verdun neighborhood of Beirut. They intercepted his car, shouted insults and attempted to throw stones at the car. The young protesters received applause from bystanders and residents.
One protester said that political authorities were turning education into a privilege rather than a right for all students, saying: “There are students who have completed 70 percent of the curriculum, while there are public school students who have only completed 30 percent of it.”
Another protester said that the minister had announced there would be no second chance for students who did not pass exams, which he described as “a great injustice.”He said: “We will follow the minister wherever he goes during the exams so that history will witness that there were students who struggled for education to be a right and not a privilege."During his visit to examination centers, the minister asked students whether the curriculum they had studied had sufficiently prepared them to answer exam questions. According to the minister’s office, the students responded that “the exams were reasonable.”Halabi acknowledged that students objected to the exams because they believed they were unfair as some public high schools had not completed the curriculum. “However, we took this into consideration when designing the exam questions. Had it not been for the determination of the Ministry of Education and the concerted efforts to make this process a success, these exams would not have taken place,” he said. The Ministry of Education reduced the number of subjects tested on the exam and made some subjects optional in order to be fair to students, said Albert Chamoun, adviser to the minister.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 10-11/2023
Israeli troops kill Palestinian suspect as West Bank violence shows no signs of slowing
JERUSAELM (AP)/Mon, July 10, 2023
Israeli troops shot and killed a Palestinian man during new unrest in the West Bank Monday, as a wave of violence in the occupied territory showed no signs of slowing. The Israeli military said troops stopped a motorist in Deir Nidham, a town west of Ramallah, to question him. It said the man got out of his car, threw a grenade and fired shots toward soldiers, who then opened fire. The Palestinian Health Ministry confirmed that a 33-year-old man had been killed, but gave no further details. The death comes during a major spike in violence between Israel and the Palestinians. Israel last week concluded a fierce two-day offensive that used rare air power and hundreds of troops in what was designed as a crackdown against militants. But the operation in the Jenin refugee camp was followed by more bloodshed, including a shooting by a Palestinian assailant that killed an Israeli soldier. A Israeli military raid killed two militants while a third Palestinian was killed during a demonstration later in the day in the central West Bank. Israel has been conducting stepped-up raids into Palestinian areas since the spring of 2022 in response to a spate of Palestinian attacks against Israelis. The violence has intensified this year, driving up the death toll on both sides. More than 150 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire since the start of the year, while at least 26 people have been killed in Palestinian attacks against Israelis. Israel says most of those killed have been militants. But stone-throwing youths protesting the incursions and others not involved in the confrontations also have been killed. Israel captured the West Bank, the Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem in the 1967 Mideast war, areas the Palestinians want for their hoped-for independent state.

Biden brands Israeli ministers ‘extreme’
Arab News/July 10, 2023
LONDON: US President Joe Biden has described Israel’s government as having “some of the most extreme” members he has ever seen. When asked by CNN why Benjamin Netanyahu had yet to visit the White House since his election victory last December, Biden said Israel’s prime minister had “problems in terms of his coalition.”The US president also said the Palestinian Authority had “lost its credibility” and “created a vacuum for extremism among the Palestinians.”Last month, the Biden administration warned that Israeli settlement expansion in the Occupied Territories was damaging the possibility of a two-state solution.Biden told CNN: “So, it is not all Israel now in the West Bank, all Israel’s problem. But they are a part of the problem, particularly those individuals in the Cabinet who say, ‘We can settle anywhere we want; they have no right to be here.’“We are talking with them regularly, trying to tamp down what is going on. Hopefully (Netanyahu) will continue to move toward moderation and change.” In response to Biden’s comments, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, thought of as the most hard-line member of Netanyahu’s government, denied that he is an extremist, saying the president “needs to realize that we (Israel) are no longer a star on the American flag

Syrian Kurdish fighters kill at least 5 Turkey-backed gunmen in nighttime attack
Associated Press/July 10, 2023
Syrian Kurdish fighters carried out an attack early Monday in northern Syria, killing at least five members of Turkey-backed Syrian opposition forces, activists said. The attack south of the northern town of Afrin, which is held by the Turkey-backed forces, took place shortly after midnight on Sunday, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Meanwhile, Turkey's Defense Ministry confirmed that two Turkish soldiers were killed in an attack on Sunday by members of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, in northern Iraq. One of the soldiers died of his wounds in hospital. The violence is the latest in a monthslong escalation between Turkey and Turkish-backed groups, and Kurdish fighters in Syria and Iraq. Ankara says the main Syrian Kurdish militia is allied to the outlawed Kurdish group. PKK has led an insurgency against Turkey since 1984 that has killed tens of thousands of people. The Observatory, an opposition war monitor, said Monday's attack was carried out by the Afrin Liberation Forces, a Kurdish faction allied with the main Kurdish militia in Syria known as the People's Protection Units or YPG. The group has claimed scores of attacks against Turkey-backed Syrian fighters. Syria-based opposition activist Taher al-Omar said the attack took place about 20 kilometers (12 miles) south of Afrin. According to al-Omar, five members of the Turkey-backed faction Failaq al-Sham were killed. The Observatory said six died, but different tolls are not uncommon in the immediate aftermath of such attacks. Afrin has been under the control of Turkey and its allied Syrian opposition fighters since 2018, following a Turkey-backed military operation that pushed Syrian Kurdish fighters and thousands of Kurdish residents from the area. Since then, the town and surrounding villages have been the site of attacks on Turkish and Turkey-backed targets. Ankara considers Syrian Kurdish fighters who control a swath of Syrian territory along Turkey's border to be terrorists, allied with Kurdish insurgents within Turkey. Also Monday in northern Syria, Kurdish fighters fired several rockets at a Turkish army base near the town of Azaz, the Observatory and al-Omar said. There was no immediate word on casualties. The Turkish state-run Anadolu Agency said at least nine rockets were fired at Azaz from Kurdish positions in nearby town of Tal Rifaat. The attack caused damage, Anadolu said, but did not report any casualties. The violence comes a day after two explosions in northern Syria killed eight people, including three members of a Syrian Kurdish-led group in the town of Manbij.

Syrian Pound Falls to Near 10,000 Against Dollar On Black Market
Asharq Al Awsat/July 10/2023
The value of the Syrian pound plunged Monday to nearly 10,000 against the dollar on the black market, websites monitoring the exchange rate said, following years of conflict and crippling sanctions. The embattled currency stood at just 47 pounds to the dollar before Syria's civil war broke out in 2011. The conflict has since killed more than 500,000 people, displaced millions and battered the country's infrastructure and industry. The pound hit a new record low of 9,750 to the dollar Monday, according to the unofficial exchange rate monitoring sites which traders use to determine the price of goods, AFP reported. The official exchange rate approved by the central bank is 6,532 pounds to the dollar. Damascus has blamed the country's economic woes on Western sanctions and the knock-on effects of an economic collapse in neighbouring Lebanon that has stemmed the flow of dollars into government-held areas.
The new plunge comes in the wake of Syria's recent return to the Arab fold after years of isolation. "The war has not ended yet, and the reasons for the drop in the pound's value have not changed," said economist Ammar Yussef, pointing to "ongoing sanctions blocking exports". "The Arab opening towards Damascus hasn't started to have an impact yet, particularly as it hasn't been accompanied by concrete economic steps," he added. The pound's collapse -- from 5,000 to the dollar in October -- has driven up the price of basic goods and aggravated hardship in a war-ravaged country hit by crippling shortages of fuel and electricity. An average monthly salary of 130,000 pounds, according to figures reported in Syrian media, is now worth little over $13. The United Nations says some 90 percent of the population is poor, while the UN World Food Program estimates that more than 12 million people in the country are food insecure.

Aid to Syria's rebel-held northwest from Turkey certain to continue, but for how long?
Associated Press/July 10, 2023
The delivery of humanitarian aid to Syria's rebel-held northwest from neighboring Turkey is virtually certain to get a green light to continue from the U.N. Security Council on Monday — but the big question is for how long. The council's current authorization for aid deliveries through the Bab al-Hawa crossing is set to expire Monday, but the council has two rival extension resolutions before it to vote on. A Russian resolution would continue aid deliveries for six months and a Brazil-Switzerland resolution backed by most council members and Secretary-General Antonio Guterres would authorize a 12-month extension. The delivery of aid to the area has increased significantly following the devastation caused by the magnitude 7.8 earthquake that ravaged southern Turkey and northwestern Syria on Feb. 8. Syrian President Bashar Assad opened two additional crossing points from Turkey to increase the flow of assistance to quake victims, and he extended their operation for three months in May until mid-August. But those crossings are not mentioned in either resolution. Syria's northwestern province of Idlib is home to some 4 million people, many of whom have been forced from their homes during the 12-year civil war, which has killed nearly a half million people and displaced half the country's pre-war population of 23 million. Hundreds of thousands of people in Idlib live in tent settlements and rely on aid that comes through the Bab al-Hawa border crossing. The earthquake caused more than 4,500 deaths in northwest Syria and about 855,000 people had their homes damaged or destroyed, according to the U.N. U.N. humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths told the Security Council on June 29 that the conflict in Syria has pushed 90% of its people into poverty and that millions face cuts in food aid in July because of a funding shortfall.
He said the $5.4 billion U.N. humanitarian appeal for Syria — the world's largest — is only 12% funded, meaning that emergency food aid for millions of Syrians could be cut by 40% this month. On Friday, he said the U.N. World Food Program needs $200 million to avoid the food cuts.
The Security Council initially authorized aid deliveries in 2014 from Turkey, Iraq and Jordan through four crossing points into opposition-held areas in Syria. But over the years, Syria's close ally Russia, backed by China, has reduced the authorized crossings to just Bab al-Hawa from Turkey — and the mandate from a year to six months. Russia has pushed for more aid to be delivered across front lines within Syria, which would give the Syrian government control over the shipments. It has also pushed for early recovery projects to provide jobs and help the country's economy.
The Russian draft resolution "underscores the imperative of maintaining unimpeded and sustainable cross-line access from Damascus to all parts of Syria." It urges stepped up efforts to broaden humanitarian activities to include providing water, sanitation, health, education, electricity, demining and shelter. It also calls for "non-interference of unilateral sanctions in the humanitarian operations in Syria."The Brazil-Switzerland draft makes no mention of sanctions. It calls for expanding humanitarian activities but would limit electricity provision to places "essential to restore access to basic services." On the issue of aid shipments within Syria, it calls on parties to enable deliveries to all parts of the country, "including by providing timely security guarantees to ensure the safe passage of cross-line convoys and humanitarian personnel."

US drone strike kills an Islamic State group leader in Syria
Associated Press/July 10, 2023
A U.S. drone strike killed an Islamic State group leader in Syria hours after the same MQ-9 Reaper drones were harassed by Russian military jets over the western part of the country, according to the Defense Department. Three Reapers had been flying overhead searching for the militant on Friday, a U.S. defense official said, when they were harassed for about two hours by Russian aircraft. Shortly after that, the drones struck and killed Usamah al-Muhajir, who was riding a motorcycle in the Aleppo region, said the official, who was not authorized to publicly discuss the matter and spoke on condition of anonymity to describe details of the military operation. The official said al-Muhajir was in northwest Syria at the time of the strike, but that he usually operated in the east. It was not immediately clear how the U.S. military confirmed that the person killed was al-Muhajir; no other details were provided. In a statement Sunday, U.S. Central Command said there are no indications any civilians were killed in the strike. The military was assessing reports a civilian may have been injured. Friday was the third day in a row that U.S. officials complained that Russian fighter jets in the region had conducted unsafe and harassing flights around American drones. Lt. Gen. Alex Grynkewich, head of U.S. Air Forces Central Command, said in a statement that during the Friday encounter, the Russian planes "flew 18 unprofessional close passes that caused the MQ-9s to react to avoid unsafe situations."The first friction occurred Wednesday morning when Russian military aircraft "engaged in unsafe and unprofessional behavior" as three American MQ-9 drones were conducting a mission against IS, the U.S. military said. On Thursday, the U.S. military said Russian fighter aircraft flew "incredibly unsafe and unprofessionally" against both French and U.S. aircraft over Syria. Col. Michael Andrews, Air Forces Central Command spokesman, said the Thursday incident lasted almost an hour and included close fly-bys, by one SU-34 and one SU-35 and that they deployed flares directly into the MQ-9. U.S. officials said the drones were unarmed in the earlier flights, but were carrying weapons on Friday, as they were hunting al-Muhajir. "We have made it clear that we remain committed to the defeat of ISIS throughout the region," said Gen. Erik Kurilla, commander of U.S. Central Command, in the statement. Rear Adm. Oleg Gurinov, head of the Russian Reconciliation Center for Syria, said this past week that the Russian and Syrian militaries had started a six-day joint training that ends Monday. Gurinov added in comments carried by Syrian state media that Moscow was concerned about the flights of drones by the U.S.-led coalition over northern Syria, calling them "systematic violations of protocols" designed to avoid clashes between the two militaries.

Iran sentences rapper to more than 6 years in prison over protests, supporters
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) /Mon, July 10, 2023
Iran has sentenced a popular rapper to six years and three months in prison over his participation in protests that rocked the country last year, his supporters said Monday. A social media account run by supporters of Toomaj Salehi announced the sentence, as did Ye-One Rhie, a member of the German parliament who has campaigned on his behalf. There was no immediate word from Iranian authorities. Salehi was among thousands of mostly young Iranians who took to the streets last fall after the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman who had been arrested by Iran's morality police for allegedly violating the country's strict Islamic dress code. The protests spread across the country and quickly escalated into calls for the overthrow of Iran's clerical rulers. The 33-year-old rapper, who was arrested last October, had criticized Iran's government in songs and music videos that were widely circulated online.
“Someone's crime was dancing with her hair in the wind,” he raps in a video with over 450,000 views on YouTube — an apparent reference to Amini. In another verse, he predicts the downfall of Iran's theocracy. "Your whole past is dark, the government that took the light out of the eyes... We go from the bottom of the pyramid and knock to the top... Forty-four years of your government, this is the year of failure."After his arrest, state media released a video showing him blindfolded and apologizing for his words, a statement likely made under duress. Rights groups say Iran routinely tortures prisoners into making false confessions. Following the protests, authorities launched a heavy crackdown, in which over 500 people were killed and nearly 20,000 arrested, according to Human Rights Activists in Iran, a group that closely monitored the unrest. Authorities have said many of those detained were released or given reduced sentences. The protests largely died down earlier this year, but there are still widespread signs of discontent. Iran has executed a total of seven people in connection with the protests, accusing them of attacking security forces. They were convicted in secretive courts where rights groups say they were denied the right to defend themselves. Salehi's supporters had feared that he too could face the death penalty.

Ukraine's counteroffensive is facing off against Wagner's successor group, Storm Z, on the outskirts of Bakhmut
Chris Panella/Business Insider/July 10, 2023
Ukraine's counteroffensive is running into Wagner's successor group, Storm Z, in Bakhmut.
The group is mostly conscripts, reservists, and convicts, The Washington Post said.
Ukraine assessed that the group had low combat capability and were alcoholics and deserters.
Ukraine is two months into its long-awaited counteroffensive, slowly pressing the front lines and grinding against Russia's defenses. And on the outskirts of a ruined town, the site of one of the bloodiest battles of the war, Ukrainian forces are battling a Russian group called "Storm Z," according to a new report. As the Ukrainians fight on the outskirts of Bakhmut, positioning to retake key territory, they are running into Storm Z forces, Russian troops sent to replace the Wagner Group after its fighters came off the line, The Washington Post reported. Storm Z, however, doesn't consist of mercenaries like Wagner, which defined itself with a culture of extreme violence. The group, instead, is a mix of regular reservists and conscripts, the Post said. Some of the troops in this force are convicted criminals, though, which is reminiscent of Wagner's push earlier this year to enlist Russian prisoners as combatants in exchange for time off of their sentences. Many of those prisoners were massacred fighting in Bakhmut. Ukraine has said that Storm Z shows extremely low combat capability, according to a press release translated by Pravada. The soldiers in this group suffer from alcoholism, engage in looting, and are prone to desertion, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine said, and Russian leadership has made efforts to regroup Storm Z with other soldiers. Wagner troops declared victory in Bakhmut — a once-bustling city now a ghost town left in ruins — in May. The capture of the city was Russia's only major territorial gain this year, and it came at tremendous costs for both sides, but particularly for the troops fighting on behalf of Russia. In late June, some Storm Z fighters announced their support for Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin's armed mutiny against Russian military leadership, a move which ended in failure but may have a lasting impact on Russia.

Russia Facing Medical 'Crisis' After Suffering 200,000 Casualties In Ukraine, Says UK
Kevin Schofield/Post UK/July 10, 2023
Russia is facing a medical “crisis” as a result of suffering 200,000 casualties since the start of the war in Ukraine, the UK has said. According to the Ministry of Defence (MoD), the large numbers of military casualties is putting huge strain on Russia’s civilian medical services. Up to half of Russian fatalities in the war could also have been prevented “with proper first aid”, while crude battlefield medical treatment is causing a hugh number of preventable fatalities and amputations. The update was contained in thew MoD’s latest intelligence update on the progress of the war. “Russia is almost certainly struggling with a crisis of combat medical provision, after suffering an average of around 400 casualties a day for 17 months,” the MoD said. “The influx of military casualties has likely undermined the normal provision of some Russian civilian medical services, especially in border regions near Ukraine. “It is likely that many dedicated military hospitals are being reserved for officer casualties. “As claimed by the head of the Kalashnikov company’s combat medicine training division, it is likely that up to 50 per cent of Russian combat fatalities could have been prevented with proper first aid. “Very slow casualty evacuation, combined with the inappropriate use of the crude in-service Russian combat tourniquet, is reportedly a leading cause of preventable fatalities and amputations.”The MoD said yesterday Russia was being hampered by “poor morale” as Ukraine battles to win back control of the key city of Bakhmut. They said Moscow would see it as “politically unacceptable” for Ukraine to re-take the key city, given it is “one of the few Russian gains in the last 12 months”. Meanwhile, US president Joe Biden will hold talks in Downing Street with Rishi Sunak today amid controversy over America’s decision to supply Ukraine with cluster bombs. The prime minister has said the UK does not support the use of the controversial weapons.

Kremlin says Putin met with Russian mercenary leader days after abortive mutiny
KYIV, Ukraine (AP)/Mon, July 10, 2023
Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin days after a short-lived rebellion by the mercenary chief and his private army, the Kremlin’s spokesman said Monday. The three-hour meeting took place at the Kremlin on June 29 and also involved commanders from the military company Prigozhin founded, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Wagner mercenaries have fought alongside Russian troops in Ukraine. Prigozhin has a long-simmering feud with Russia’s top military brass which on June 24 culminated in an armed mutiny in which he led his fighters into Russia. Prigozhin ended the mutiny after a deal was brokered for him to be exiled to Belarus. The confirmation of a face-to-face meeting with Putin, who has branded Prigozhin as a backstabbing traitor, adds a new twist to the uncertainty surrounding the mercenary chief. His fate and whereabouts have been unknown since the abortive mutiny, which severely weakened Putin's authority. Peskov said that during the June 29 meeting, Putin offered an “assessment” of Wagner’s actions on the battlefield in Ukraine and "of the events of June 24.” The president also “listened to the explanations of the commanders and offered them options for further employment and further use in combat,” the Kremlin spokesman said. “The commanders themselves presented their version of what happened. They underscored that they are staunch supporters and soldiers of the head of state and the commander-in-chief, and also said that they are ready to continue to fight for their homeland,” Peskov said. A total of 35 people took part in the meeting, including Wagner commanders and the leadership of the company, namely Prigozhin himself, Peskov said. Also Monday, Russia’s Defense Ministry published a video featuring the country’s military chief — the first time Gen. Valery Gerasimov was shown since the rebelling aimed to oust him. During last month’s revolt, Prigozhin repeatedly denounced Gerasimov, who serves as chief of the general staff of the Russian armed forces, and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu for failing to provide his fighters in Ukraine with ammunition. Monday's updates appeared to be an attempt by Moscow to take control of the narrative after a turbulent period. Meanwhile, a Russian airstrike on a school in southern Ukraine killed four adults as people gathered to receive humanitarian aid, the governor of Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region said Monday, branding the incident "a war crime.”Three women and a man, all in their 40s, died in Sunday's attack in the town of Orikhiv, Gov. Yuriy Malashko said. A guided aerial bomb caused an explosion at the school, Malashko said, without providing evidence. Eleven other people were wounded in the attack, he said. Overall, Russia fired on 10 settlements in the province over the course of a day, he said. Moscow denies it targets civilian locations. Russia has been accused numerous times of doing so and committing other war crimes since its full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine in February 2022.
In March, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin for war crimes, accusing him of personal responsibility for the abductions of children from Ukraine. Broad investigations are also underway in Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. The International Center for the Prosecution of the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine, located in The Hague, is helping with those investigations. Zaporizhzhia province is home to Europe's largest nuclear power plant, which Russian forces seized early in the war, and is one of four regions of Ukraine that Putin illegally annexed last year. Retaking the province is one of the targets of a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Russian aerial assaults continued across Ukraine between Sunday and Monday, according to a summary from the Ukrainian presidential office. In the Donetsk region, the Russians used aircraft, missile systems and heavy artillery to shell residential areas of 6 cities and villages, injuring one person, the office reported. The Russian army attacked residential areas of Kherson, the regional capital of a province of the same name. A 66-year-old woman was injured, the presidential office said.

How many Russians have died in Ukraine? Data shows what Moscow hides
Associated Press/July 10, 2023
Nearly 50,000 Russian men have died in the war in Ukraine, according to the first independent statistical analysis of Russia's war dead. Two independent Russian media outlets, Mediazona and Meduza, working with a data scientist from Germany's Tübingen University, used Russian government data to shed light on one of Moscow's closest-held secrets — the true human cost of its invasion of Ukraine. To do so, they relied on a statistical concept popularized during the COVID-19 pandemic called excess mortality. Drawing on inheritance records and official mortality data, they estimated how many more men under age 50 died between February 2022 and May 2023 than normal. Neither Moscow nor Kyiv gives timely data on military losses, and each is at pains to amplify the other side's casualties. Russia has publicly acknowledged the deaths of just over 6,000 soldiers. Reports about military losses have been repressed in Russian media, activists and independent journalists say. Documenting the dead has become an act of defiance, and those who do so face harassment and potential criminal charges. Despite such challenges, Mediazona and the BBC's Russian Service, working with a network of volunteers, have used social media postings and photographs of cemeteries across Russia to build a database of confirmed war deaths. As of July 7, they had identified 27,423 dead Russian soldiers. "These are only soldiers who we know by name, and their deaths in each case are verified by multiple sources," said Dmitry Treshchanin, an editor at Mediazona who helped oversee the investigation. "The estimate we did with Meduza allows us to see the 'hidden' deaths, deaths the Russian government is so obsessively and unsuccessfully trying to hide."
To come up with a more comprehensive tally, journalists from Mediazona and Meduza obtained records of inheritance cases filed with the Russian authorities. Their data from the National Probate Registry contained information about more than 11 million people who died between 2014 and May 2023. According to their analysis, 25,000 more inheritance cases were opened in 2022 for males aged 15 to 49 than expected. By May 27, 2023, the number of excess cases had shot up to 47,000. That surge is roughly in line with a May assessment by the White House that more than 20,000 Russians had been killed in Ukraine since December, though lower than U.S. and U.K. intelligence assessments of overall Russian deaths. In February, the U.K. Ministry of Defense said approximately 40,000 to 60,000 Russians had likely been killed in the war. A leaked assessment from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency put the number of Russians killed in action in the first year of the war at 35,000 to 43,000.
"Their figures might be accurate, or they might not be," Treshchanin, the Mediazona editor, said in an email. "Even if they have sources in the Russian Ministry of Defense, its own data could be incomplete. It's extremely difficult to pull together all of the casualties from the army, Rosgvardia, Akhmat battalion, various private military companies, of which Wagner is the largest, but not the only one. Casualties among inmates, first recruited by Wagner and now by the MoD, are also a very hazy subject, with a lot of potential for manipulation. Statistics could actually give better results."
Independently, Dmitry Kobak, a data scientist from Germany's Tübingen University who has published work on excess COVID-19 deaths in Russia, obtained mortality data broken down by age and sex for 2022 from Rosstat, Russia's official statistics agency. He found that 24,000 more men under age 50 died in 2022 than expected, a figure that aligns with the analysis of inheritance data.
The COVID-19 pandemic made it harder to figure out how many men would have died in Russia since February 2022 if there hadn't been a war. Both analyses corrected for the lingering effects of COVID on mortality by indexing male death rates against female deaths.
Sergei Scherbov, a scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria, cautioned that "differences in the number of deaths between males and females can vary significantly due to randomness alone." "I am not saying that there couldn't be an excess number of male deaths, but rather that statistically speaking, this difference in deaths could be a mere outcome of chance," he said. Russians who are missing but not officially recognized as dead, as well as citizens of Ukraine fighting in units of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics, are not included in these counts. Kobak acknowledged that some uncertainties remain, especially for deaths of older men. Moreover, it's hard to know how many missing Russian soldiers are actually dead. But he said neither factor is likely to have a huge impact. "That uncertainty is in the thousands," he said. "The results are plausible overall." The Russian Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Meduza is an independent Russian media outlet that has been operating in exile for eight years, with headquarters in Riga, Latvia. In April 2021, Russian authorities designated Meduza a "foreign agent," making it harder to generate advertising income, and in January 2023, the Kremlin banned Meduza as an illegal "undesirable organization." Moscow has also labeled independent outlet Mediazona as a "foreign agent" and blocked its website after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Gulf States in Russia: Strengthening cooperation with a global power
LBCI/July 10, 2023
Gulf countries have been following a policy of openness towards major global powers. After their engagements with China and the United States in Riyadh, today, Gulf States find themselves in Russia. In Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which includes six Arab countries: Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. However, this meeting took place within the framework of the sixth ministerial dialogue between Russia and the GCC, aiming to expand cooperation, focusing on trade and economic collaboration. Additionally, the trade exchange between Russia and the Gulf countries has reached $11 billion, according to Lavrov. Furthermore, several important topics were discussed between Russia and the Gulf countries, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The Gulf States, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are playing a mediating role in resolving the war between Moscow and Kyiv. The Palestinian issue also was a sensitive topic in these discussions. Lavrov agreed with the Gulf countries on the importance of accelerating a resolution to the Palestinian issue. Moreover, the ministers addressed the Yemeni and Syrian crises. Lavrov announced that detailed discussions were held regarding Syria, emphasizing the need for reconstruction in the country. The ministers also touched upon the Gulf-Iranian relations.Therefore, this meeting indicates that the Gulf States maintain a united stance with their international partners.

NATO leaders gather in bid to bolster support for Ukraine
Associated Press and Agence France Presse/Mon, July 10, 2023
Western leaders gather in Lithuania's capital on Monday to demonstrate solidarity with Ukraine amid rare glimmers of disunity over Washington's controversial decision to supply cluster bombs to Kyiv. President Volodymyr Zelensky voiced hope that Tuesday's NATO summit in Vilnius would provide a "clear signal" that Kyiv could join the alliance once its war with Russia is over.Keen to expose any hint of friction among the allies, the Kremlin fired an eve-of-summit warning that Ukraine's membership of the military alliance would have "very, very negative consequences for the entire security architecture in Europe." On the battlefront, Ukraine's counteroffensive ground on, its forces recapturing 14 square kilometers in the past week amid "heavy fighting" near the Russian-controlled city of Bakhmut, the military said. And Russian shelling Sunday of a humanitarian aid hub in the frontline Zaporizhzhia region killed four people, the local governor announced Monday.
- Cluster concerns -
Ahead of the summit, US President Joe Biden met with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak during a stopover in London on Monday, with British concern over the cluster munitions deal a key subject for discussion. Britain is one of more than 120 countries that have signed an agreement banning the production, storage, sale and use of cluster bombs, which rights groups say pose a danger to civilian populations long after they are deployed. Biden said the decision to send the weapons was "very difficult" but Ukrainian forces were "running out of ammunition". White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan on Sunday played down any rift between the two leaders and in NATO, saying the Biden and Sunak were "on the same page strategically on Ukraine". China on Monday denounced the move as 'irresponsible" and said it could lead to 'humanitarian problems"."We should fairly manage humanitarian concerns and legitimate military and security needs, and maintain a prudent and restrained attitude towards the transfer of cluster munitions," Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said. In a summit expected to present unity on Ukraine's future membership, a key goal is to pressure Turkey to drop its opposition to Sweden's all-but-cleared membership bid. Sweden's prime minister will meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday afternoon in a last-gasp effort to bridge the diplomatic impasse. Erdogan has voiced repeated frustrations with what he calls Sweden's failure to keep its promises to deal with suspected Kurdish militants allegedly "roaming the streets" of Stockholm. He told Biden on a call Sunday that though Sweden had taken "some steps in the right direction" over Turkey's concerns, it had "nullified those steps" by allowing pro-Kurdish groups to hold demonstrations "freely praising terrorism", Erdogan's office said.
- Erdogan plays EU membership card -
And the Turkish dramatically upped the ante just hours before his meeting with Sweden's Ulf Kristersson, saying he would relent on Stockholm's candidacy if the European Union re-opened long-stalled membership talks with Ankara. "First, open the way to Turkey's membership of the European Union, and then we will open it for Sweden, just as we had opened it for Finland," Erdogan told Turkish television before leaving for Vilnius. Turkey formally launched membership negotiations with the bloc in 2005, but the talks stalled in 2016 over European concerns about Turkish human rights. "Almost all the NATO members are EU members. I now am addressing these countries, which are making Turkey wait for more than 50 years, and I will address them again in Vilnius."Turkey and Hungary remain the only NATO members still standing in the way of the unanimous ratification needed for Sweden to become the bloc's 32nd member.Hungary has strongly signaled it will follow Erdogan's lead and approve Sweden's membership should Ankara give it the green light.
- Russian shelling hits aid hub -
On the ground, an aid hub in the town of Orikhiv in southern Ukraine was hit by Russian shelling, which killed three women and a man, regional governor Yuriy Malashko said on social media. "They hit a humanitarian aid delivery spot in a residential area... Four people died on the spot: women aged 43, 45 and 47 and a 47-year-old man," Malashko said, calling the attack "a war crime". Ukraine's prosecutor general said in a statement the strike had occurred one day earlier, at 1.20 pm local time (1020 GMT) and that 13 people were injured, in addition to those killed. It released images showing a red-brick two-storey building partially collapsed and surround by debris and snapped roof beams.

Turkey to back Sweden's NATO bid in return for EU membership
Agence France Presse/July 10, 2023
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Monday he would back Sweden's NATO candidacy if the European Union resumes long-stalled membership talks with Ankara. "First, open the way to Turkey's membership of the European Union, and then we will open it for Sweden, just as we had opened it for Finland," Erdogan told a televised media appearance, before departing for the NATO summit in Lithuania. Erdogan said "this is what I told" US President Joe Biden when the two leaders spoke by phone on Sunday. Turkey first applied to be a member of the European Economic Community -- a predecessor to the EU -- in 1987. It became an EU candidate country in 1999 and formally launched membership negotiations with the bloc in 2005. The talks stalled in 2016 over European concerns about Turkish human rights violations. "I would like to underline one reality. Turkey has been waiting at the EU's front door for 50 years," Erdogan said. "Almost all the NATO members are EU members. I now am addressing these countries, which are making Turkey wait for more than 50 years, and I will address them again in Vilnius."

Aid to Syria's rebel-held northwest from Turkey certain to continue — but for 6 or 12 months?
UNITED NATIONS (AP)/Mon, July 10, 2023
The delivery of humanitarian aid to Syria’s rebel-held northwest from neighboring Turkey is virtually certain to get a green light to continue from the U.N. Security Council on Monday — but the big question is for how long. The council’s current authorization for aid deliveries through the Bab al-Hawa crossing is set to expire Monday, but the council has two rival extension resolutions before it to vote on. A Russian resolution would continue aid deliveries for six months and a Brazil-Switzerland resolution backed by most council members and Secretary-General Antonio Guterres would authorize a 12-month extension. The delivery of aid to the area has increased significantly following the devastation caused by the magnitude 7.8 earthquake that ravaged southern Turkey and northwestern Syria on Feb. 8. Syrian President Bashar Assad opened two additional crossing points from Turkey to increase the flow of assistance to quake victims, and he extended their operation for three months in May until mid-August. But those crossings are not mentioned in either resolution. Syria’s northwestern province of Idlib is home to some 4 million people, many of whom have been forced from their homes during the 12-year civil war, which has killed nearly a half million people and displaced half the country’s pre-war population of 23 million. Hundreds of thousands of people in Idlib live in tent settlements and rely on aid that comes through the Bab al-Hawa border crossing. The earthquake caused more than 4,500 deaths in northwest Syria and about 855,000 people had their homes damaged or destroyed, according to the U.N. U.N. humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths told the Security Council on June 29 that the conflict in Syria has pushed 90% of its people into poverty and that millions face cuts in food aid in July because of a funding shortfall.
He said the $5.4 billion U.N. humanitarian appeal for Syria — the world’s largest — is only 12% funded, meaning that emergency food aid for millions of Syrians could be cut by 40% this month. On Friday, he said the U.N. World Food Program needs $200 million to avoid the food cuts.
The Security Council initially authorized aid deliveries in 2014 from Turkey, Iraq and Jordan through four crossing points into opposition-held areas in Syria. But over the years, Syria’s close ally Russia, backed by China, has reduced the authorized crossings to just Bab al-Hawa from Turkey — and the mandate from a year to six months. Russia has pushed for more aid to be delivered across front lines within Syria, which would give the Syrian government control over the shipments. It has also pushed for early recovery projects to provide jobs and help the country’s economy. The Russian draft resolution “underscores the imperative of maintaining unimpeded and sustainable cross-line access from Damascus to all parts of Syria.” It urges stepped up efforts to broaden humanitarian activities to include providing water, sanitation, health, education, electricity, demining and shelter. It also calls for “non-interference of unilateral sanctions in the humanitarian operations in Syria.” The Brazil-Switzerland draft makes no mention of sanctions. It calls for expanding humanitarian activities but would limit electricity provision to places “essential to restore access to basic services.” On the issue of aid shipments within Syria, it calls on parties to enable deliveries to all parts of the country, “including by providing timely security guarantees to ensure the safe passage of cross-line convoys and humanitarian personnel.”

Trudeau says Canada will more than double military presence in Latvia
RIGA, Latvia/The Canadian Press/Mon, July 10, 2023
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is promising to more than double the size of Canada's contribution to a NATO mission in Latvia, committing $2.6 billion in funding over three years and up to 2,200 Canadian troops for persistent deployment. About 800 Canadian Armed Forces members are already part of the Canada-led battle group in the Baltic country, making it the country's largest overseas mission. Trudeau is also announcing that Canada will procure and pre-position critical weapon systems, and is ready to deploy additional surge personnel for allied crisis response, co-operative security and collective defence. Defence Minister Anita Anand recently announced that a Leopard 2 tank squadron with 15 tanks and around 130 personnel would be joining the mission starting this fall. It's all part of the NATO military alliance's efforts to increase its presence near Russia in response to that country's ongoing assault on Ukraine. The alliance has doubled the number of battle groups in the region since the war began, and has plans to increase the size and scope of some of them to be combat-ready brigades.

Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 10-11/2023
Iran's Plan To Drive Jews Out of 'Palestine'
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/July 10, 2023
Iran's mullahs are seeking to create a situation where Jews no longer feel safe in their own country and are forced to leave Israel. To achieve this goal, the mullahs have instructed their Palestinian terror proxies, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), to step up their campaign of terrorism against Israel and Jews.
"Islamic Jihad & other Palestinian resistance movements have found the main key to fighting the Zionist regime. The continually growing authority of resistance groups in the #WestBank is the key to bringing the Zionist enemy to its knees, & this course must be continued." — Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Twitter, June 14, 2023.
The leaders of Iran, Hamas and PIJ share the same goal: eliminating Israel and killing as much Jews as possible. They do not differentiate between a Jew living in Israel and a Jew living in the West Bank. In their view, all Jews are settlers, regardless of where they live. For them, there is no difference between Tel Aviv and a Jewish settlement in the West Bank. They see Israel as one big settlement that must be removed from the face of the earth.
"The Jews in other countries live in peace and prosperity. The only place where they're being killed is in Palestine. Therefore, when we continue our fight, they will change their mind and realize that they made a historical mistake by coming to this place. They will realize that there is no chance of life for them and that they therefore should leave this country." — PIJ Secretary-General Ziyad al-Nakhalah, al-vefagh.net, June 8, 2023.
This statement by the PIJ leader is important because it shows that the Palestinian terror attacks against Israel are not being carried out because of checkpoints, settlements or harsh economic conditions. Instead, the purpose of these attacks is to force the Jews out of their country and replace Israel with an Islamic state controlled by Iran and its proxies, especially Hamas and PIJ.
Those who believe that the Palestinian campaign of terrorism is a legitimate resistance against the "occupation" in the West Bank are totally clueless.
Thanks to Iran, Nakhalah said, the Palestinian terror groups are now capable of manufacturing their own weapons.
When Hamas and PIJ talk about "resistance," they are referring to various forms of terrorism, including firing rockets at Israel, as well as shooting, stabbing and car-ramming attacks.
Also on the instructions of Iran's mullahs, PIJ is working to form "combat battalions" in all Palestinian cities in the West Bank to carry out terror attacks against Israel and Jews... in addition to militiamen affiliated with Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah. These terror groups, according to Nakhalah, are armed and funded by Iran through PIJ.
If true, Nakhalah's statements mean that Iran and PIJ have infiltrated the PA, which has long been receiving financial aid from the United States, European Union and other Western countries. Now that Fatah members are being funded and armed by Iran and PIJ, this means that's it is only a matter of time before the entire Palestinian Authority is transformed into a terror organization.
Mohammed al-Masri, Director of the Palestinian Center for Strategic studies, acknowledged that Fatah and the Palestinian Authority security forces are leading the recent terror wave against Israelis.
The growing cooperation between Fatah and the Iranian-backed PIJ terror group should worry not only Israel and Mahmoud Abbas, but all the Western countries that continue to view the Palestinian Authority as a partner for any peace agreement with Israel. It should also serve as a warning to the Biden administration which continues to explore ways to appease Iran's mullahs by reaching a new nuclear deal with them. This policy of appeasement, including the lifting of economic sanctions on Iran and rewarding it with billions of dollars in cash, is likely to further empower the mullahs and their proxies and encourage them not only to pursue their Jihad against Israel, but also to "export the Revolution," as required by their Constitution.
Presumably an additional $100 billion infusion would enable Iran to join China in escalating their military presence in Latin America and further their long-term goal of displacing the United States as the world's leading superpower.
If the Biden Administration is hoping to bribe the mullahs not to use their nuclear weapons -- at least on the Biden Administration's watch (after that would presumably be fine) -- while at the same time permitting the mullahs to have as many nuclear weapons as they like, is this plan really in the best security interests of the United States?
Palestinian Islamic Jihad Secretary-General Ziyad al-Nakhalah, who recently visited Tehran and met with Iranian leaders, revealed that the main goal behind his organization's increased terror attacks on Israelis was to make the Jews feel unsafe to a point where they would leave their country. Pictured: Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (R) meets with Nakhalah (2R) in Tehran, on June 14, 2023. (Image source: khamenei.ir)
Iran's mullahs are seeking to create a situation where Jews no longer feel safe in their own country and are forced to leave Israel. To achieve this goal, the mullahs have instructed their Palestinian terror proxies, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), to step up their campaign of terrorism against Israel and Jews.
The mullahs have also succeeded in recruiting to their Jihad (holy war) to destroy Israel members of the Palestinians' ruling faction, Fatah, headed by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has repeatedly stated his intention to support any Palestinian terror group that seeks the destruction of Israel and kills Jews. On June 14, Khamenei wrote:
"Islamic Jihad & other Palestinian resistance movements have found the main key to fighting the Zionist regime. The continually growing authority of resistance groups in the #WestBank is the key to bringing the Zionist enemy to its knees, & this course must be continued."
Over the past 28 months, Hamas and PIJ and other terror groups have increased their attacks against Israel and Jews to placate their sponsors in Tehran and persuade them to provide them with more money and weapons.
The leaders of Iran, Hamas and PIJ share the same goal: eliminating Israel and killing as much Jews as possible. They do not differentiate between a Jew living in Israel and a Jew living in the West Bank. In their view, all Jews are settlers, regardless of where they live. For them, there is no difference between Tel Aviv and a Jewish settlement in the West Bank. They see Israel as one big settlement that must be removed from the face of the earth.
PIJ Secretary-General Ziyad al-Nakhalah, who recently visited Tehran and met with Iranian leaders, revealed that the main goal behind the increased terror attacks on Israelis was to make the Jews feel unsafe to a point where they would leave their country. A Hamas delegation headed by Ismail Haniyeh also visited Tehran to discuss ways of stepping up the terror campaign against Israel.
Nakhalah pointed out that Jews came to Israel so that they can live in safety and stability. "When they don't find this stability and peace, they will return to where they came from," he said in an interview with the Iranian newspaper Al-Vefagh.
"The Jews in other countries live in peace and prosperity. The only place where they're being killed is in Palestine. Therefore, when we continue our fight, they will change their mind and realize that they made a historical mistake by coming to this place. They will realize that there is no chance of life for them and that they therefore should leave this country."
This statement by the PIJ leader is important because it shows that the Palestinian terror attacks against Israel are not being carried out because of checkpoints, settlements or harsh economic conditions. Instead, the purpose of these attacks is to force the Jews out of their country and replace Israel with an Islamic state controlled by Iran and its proxies, especially Hamas and PIJ.
Those who believe that the Palestinian campaign of terrorism is a legitimate resistance against the "occupation" in the West Bank are totally clueless. If this were true, why are Hamas and PIJ carrying out attacks against Jews in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and other Israeli cities? Murdering a Jew in a restaurant in the center of Tel Aviv is not an act of "resistance" against an "occupation." As Nakhalah, the PIJ leader said, the goal is to make Jews feel insecure and leave Israel. He and his Iranian patrons want to drive the Jews not only out of the West Bank, but all of Israel. He is grateful to Iran's mullahs for helping the Palestinians achieve this goal.
Thanks to Iran, Nakhalah said, the Palestinian terror groups are now capable of manufacturing their own weapons.
"The Palestinian people have gained a lot of experience and expertise from the [Iranian] Islamic Revolution over the past 40 years," Nakhalah said.
"Today, the Palestinians manufacture their own weapons, including missiles, mortars, and explosive devices. An important part of this experience was gained by the Palestinian people from our brothers in the Islamic Republic, and this has a great impact. The missiles are being used to strike the occupied cities, in particular Tel Aviv."
Nakhalah revealed that his group was working to step up terror attacks against Israel in the West Bank on instructions from Khamenei who, he added, affirmed the need to "strengthen the resistance" there.
When Hamas and PIJ talk about "resistance," they are referring to various forms of terrorism, including firing rockets at Israel, as well as shooting, stabbing and car-ramming attacks.
Also on the instructions of Iran's mullahs, PIJ is working to form "combat battalions" in all Palestinian cities in the West Bank to carry out terror attacks against Israel and Jews. These groups, responsible for a series of terror attacks over the past few years, include the Jenin Battalion, Lions' Den, Nablus Battalion, and Balata Battalion, in addition to militiamen affiliated with Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah. These terror groups, according to Nakhalah, are armed and funded by Iran through PIJ.
What is most worrying about Nakhalah's statements is his revelation that PIJ is also arming members of Abbas's Fatah faction. The Palestinian Authority and its security forces are dominated by Fatah loyalists who receive their salaries from Abbas's Palestinian Authority (PA) government in the West Bank.
If true, Nakhalah's statements mean that Iran and PIJ have infiltrated the PA, which has long been receiving financial aid from the United States, European Union and other Western countries. Now that Fatah members are being funded and armed by Iran and PIJ, this means that's it is only a matter of time before the entire Palestinian Authority is transformed into a terror organization.
"We have benefited from opening up to the bases of Fatah," the PIJ leader stated.
"Among the bases of Fatah, there are segments that oppose a settlement [with Israel] and the Palestinian Authority. We decided to open up to these segments, arm them and provide them with aid."
Abbas's Fatah faction is already carrying out terror attacks against Israelis. A number of Fatah terror groups have been boasting of these attacks, according to Palestinian Media Watch.
Mohammed al-Masri, Director of the Palestinian Center for Strategic studies, acknowledged that Fatah and the Palestinian Authority security forces are leading the recent terror wave against Israelis. He stated that "63%-65%" of the "martyrs" in the "daily confrontations" with Israel are from Abbas's Fatah – meaning about two-thirds of the dead terrorists in the West Bank are from Fatah. Masri added that most of those 63%-65% are officers in the PA security forces.
The same statistics were broadcast by Fatah on its own Awdah TV station:
"More than two-thirds of the martyrs in the West Bank over [the last] year and a half belong to the Fatah faction and the Palestinian Authority... More than 355 of our Palestinian people's prisoners are from the Palestinian security forces."
The growing cooperation between Fatah and the Iranian-backed PIJ terror group should worry not only Israel and Mahmoud Abbas, but all the Western countries that continue to view the Palestinian Authority as a partner for any peace agreement with Israel. It should also serve as a warning to the Biden administration which continues to explore ways to appease Iran's mullahs by reaching a new nuclear deal with them. This policy of appeasement, including the lifting of economic sanctions on Iran and rewarding it with billions of dollars in cash, is likely to further empower the mullahs and their proxies and encourage them not only to pursue their Jihad against Israel, but also to "export the Revolution," as required by their Constitution:
In the formation and equipping of the country's defence forces, due attention must be paid to faith and ideology as the basic criteria. Accordingly, the Army of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are to be organized in conformity with this goal, and they will be responsible not only for guarding and preserving the frontiers of the country, but also for fulfilling the ideological mission of jihad in God's way; that is, extending the sovereignty of God's law throughout the world (this is in accordance with the Qur'anic verse "Prepare against them whatever force you are able to muster, and strings of horses, striking fear into the enemy of God and your enemy, and others besides them" [8:60]).
Presumably an additional $100 billion infusion would enable Iran to join China in escalating their military presence in Latin America and further their long-term goal of displacing the United States as the world's leading superpower.
If the Biden Administration is hoping to bribe the mullahs not to use their nuclear weapons -- at least on the Biden Administration's watch (after that would presumably be fine) -- while at the same time permitting the mullahs to have as many nuclear weapons as they like, is this plan really in the best security interests of the United States?
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Iraqi sovereignty at stake in case of Israeli hostage
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Arab News/July 10/2023
The Iraqi militia Kata’ib Hezbollah has been holding hostage, since March, Israeli-Russian Elizabeth Tsurkov, a graduate student at Princeton University. Tsurkov had entered Iraq, using her Russian passport, four months prior to conduct fieldwork. Her captivity is an embarrassment to the Iraqi state and Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, showing them as weak and unable to assert sovereignty in the face of militias.
Anti-Western regimes have always used hostage-taking as a tactic to blackmail Western governments. These regimes claim false equivalence between their own assassins and spies, who get busted, tried and jailed in the West, and private Western citizens, such as activists and academics, most of whom are usually opposed to the policies of their own governments.In the mid-1980s, Hezbollah took several Western hostages in Lebanon — including Americans — and traded their release for Western arms shipment to Iran.
After a nuclear deal was signed between the international community and Iran, Tehran freed all Westerners in its custody in early 2016. Since then, Iran has taken 13 new Western hostages, 11 of whom are of Iranian origin. From time to time, Tehran offers to “swap prisoners” with the US, Canada and European countries, or asks for some American concessions, mainly sanction relief, in return for releasing one or more hostages.
Syria has been playing similar games and is currently trying to extort Washington in return for information about journalist Austin Tice, believed to be in the hands of the Syrian regime since 2012.
But Baghdad enjoys strong ties with Washington and does not need to take hostages to extract concessions. On the contrary, it shows that, in Iraq, the government cannot guarantee the safety of foreign tourists or residents. This is why it is imperative for Baghdad to take custody of Tsurkov.
If, by entering Iraq, Tsurkov had violated the Iraqi law that prohibits normalization with Israel, then the Iraqi government should bring her before a court, which can deport her. If the court finds Tsurkov not guilty, she should be allowed to stay safely in Iraq, just like all other foreign residents. If the government of Baghdad cannot guarantee the safety of foreigners, then Iraq has a long way to go before it can convince the world that it is a normal country worth visiting or dealing with.
Tsurkov’s situation shows that, in Iraq, the government cannot guarantee the safety of foreign tourists or residents.
In theory, Al-Sudani is the chief of all military forces, including the Popular Mobilization Units militias. In its 2024 budget, the Iraqi government allocated $2.7 billion to the PMU, which includes Kata’ib Hezbollah. This means that, if he wanted to, Al-Sudani could order Tsurkov freed and deported.
On the first day after the news broke, Iranian media focused its coverage on quoting Israeli reports about Tsurkov’s kidnapping. The day after, Iranian media changed course and accused Tsurkov of being an Israeli spy who had made Iraqi Kurdistan her base. Iranian media even linked Tsurkov, whom they called “a spy in the clothes of a researcher,” to bombings of targets and the assassination of nuclear scientists inside Iran.
If Al-Sudani overrules Tehran and orders Tsurkov out, he will give the Iranians and their Iraqi allies fodder with which they can attack him in the future, as “the prime minister who let go of the Zionist spy.” Perhaps this is why Al-Sudani has yet to comment on the situation.
Al-Sudani has so far played dead, likely hoping that the crisis would resolve on its own and spare him having to make any hard choices. America has invested a lot in Iraq and has built strong ties with Al-Sudani, his ministers and security agencies. As a close ally, it would be wise for Washington to impress on Baghdad that Tsurkov should be freed, not for the sake of Israel, but for the image of Iraq as a sovereign country where law and order are upheld by courts and law enforcement agencies.
• Hussain Abdul-Hussain is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
Twitter: @hahussain

Gulf states have perfect opportunity to boost ties with the Caucasus
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/10 July/2023
Since the second century B.C., when the Silk Route passed across the northern and southern territories of the Greater Caucasus, this region has played a fundamental role in connecting the Black Sea coast with China and the Near East and the Middle East with Europe. During the Cold War and due to the Soviet iron curtain, the region’s significance was adversely impacted. However, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, geopolitical and macroeconomic considerations have played a critical role in shaping the Caucasus, along with the region’s vast economic resources. The region has quickly turned into a center of geopolitical competition, with competing powers vying for greater influence for geopolitical and economic reasons. Given its proximity to the Middle East, the Caucasus is of particular importance. This article will specifically look at its relations with the Gulf states. These two regions have a lot in common, as, for example, both are resource-rich, situated in important geopolitical locations and have religion as a common denominator that binds their peoples. In addition, the prominence of both regions on the international chessboard has grown since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which disrupted global energy and food supplies. This conflict has created new opportunities and possibilities for the Caucasus and the Gulf to increase their own development and prosperity through forging closer collaborations.
Since the mid-1990s, Saudi Arabia has looked to the Caucasus region as an important market and has ramped up its economic ties there. For example, the Kingdom has boosted its investments in Azerbaijan and there are ample opportunities to further increase the trade volume between the two countries.
In June, Saudi Deputy Minister of Investment and co-chairman of the Saudi Arabia-Azerbaijan Joint Business Council Ahmed Ali Al-Dakhil met with Azerbaijani Finance Minister Samir Sharifov. Al-Dakhil spoke of expanding economic relations and Sharifov invited Saudi business circles to take an active part in the reconstruction and construction work being carried out in Azerbaijan’s Karabakh and East Zangezur regions.
Baku’s agricultural products have found a place in Emirati and Qatari markets, with both viewing Azerbaijan as an important source of food security, which has spurred economic collaboration.
Meanwhile, the trade volume between the UAE and Armenia has grown to more than $1 billion and non-oil trade has increased by 110 percent. Georgia has also seen its ties with the Gulf states improve, with its trade exchanges increasing with the UAE in particular. Qatari companies have looked to invest in the country’s real estate market. In 2022, Georgia and Saudi Arabia agreed on a number of matters related to the economy, energy and security, marking the end of the Georgian prime minister’s visit to Riyadh.
It is important not to forget that parts of southern Russia are also considered to be part of the Caucasus region. The Gulf’s relations with Russia have vastly improved recently, spurred by a lack of satisfaction with America’s regional security architecture. The Gulf feels its voice continues to be overlooked and its interests not considered when Washington devises policies or strategies for the region.
The prominence of both regions on the international chessboard has grown since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Given this context, it is not surprising to see the Gulf states move closer to Russia to seek their national interests and develop an independent foreign policy trajectory, as evidenced by their neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine war despite Western pressure aimed at forcing them to align behind Ukraine. Russia views the Gulf as an important region, a potential corridor to Asia, and relations have grown fast with Saudi Arabia under the leadership of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has taken bold decisions to invest in Russia despite Western pressure and to broaden the scope of collaboration with Moscow. In addition, the UAE and Russia have seen an acceleration in their relations and, during a meeting between their respective presidents in June, both reaffirmed their intentions to expand collaboration in several areas.
Given the aforementioned developments, Gulf-Caucasus relations have huge potential. The following steps and initiatives need to be taken to avail the opportunities and possibilities that exist.
One is economic cooperation. Both regions can strengthen their economic ties by enhancing existing trade routes and establishing new ones for transportation, energy and communication networks.
Secondly, cultural exchanges are needed. Promoting cultural exchange programs, academic collaborations and people-to-people contacts can help to foster understanding and goodwill between the two regions.
Political dialogue should be a third aim. Regular meetings and forums involving political leaders, diplomats, think tankers and policymakers from both regions can facilitate constructive dialogue and promote trust.
Fourth is security cooperation. By working together on combating terrorism, transnational crime and border security, the two regions can jointly address such threats by developing shared approaches. This can start with joint training exercises and collaboration in counterterrorism efforts.
Last up is membership of multilateral and regional organizations. Engaging in these can help to foster dialogue and collaborations on shared challenges. Both the Caucasus and the Gulf states can benefit from participating in existing organizations, such as the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and through establishing new ones tailored to their specific needs and interests.
In conclusion, the Caucasus and the Gulf can strengthen their relationship and take it to another level by carrying out these steps and initiatives, with both likely to benefit and contribute to growth and prosperity at national and regional levels. In addition, the present geopolitical situation, particularly regarding the Ukraine war and the international isolation of Russia, provides space for the Gulf and the Caucasus to forge closer relations.
• Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is president of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah).
Twitter: @mohalsulami

Sudan’s scary future must be faced with patient realism
Mukesh Kapila/Arab News/July 10/2023
Sudan’s civil war shows no signs of abating. It appears that the well-armed struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces under Gen. Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces under Gen. Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo is an existential one.
While forecasting is hazardous in an uncertain world, Sudan’s trajectory provides depressing predictability against the backdrop of its tragic history. We should get ready for worse to come.
The nature of the differences between the warring Sudanese commanders implies that, for them to consider peace, one side must win militarily. Or at least attain sufficient territorial advantage to ensure their future survival.
This likely endgame derives from the experience of other wars. For example, the evolving situations in Syria, Yemen and Iraq, Ethiopia’s civil war in Tigray or South Sudan’s achievement of independence.
With no side yet in the ascendance, there is plenty of fight left in Sudan. Therefore, it is not surprising that third-party peacemaking has made little progress, even with the limited objective of humanitarian ceasefires. Existential battles imply no self-restraint or adherence to the rules of war, despite exhortations from outside. Besides, Sudan’s brutal past, including the impunity enjoyed by the perpetrators of the Darfur genocide, show that neither the army nor the Rapid Support Forces are dedicated to the principles of humanity. They are unlikely to change now, even with threats of prosecution in international courts and sanctions from superpowers.
Viciously fought wars develop their own autonomous dynamic, like a proliferating cancer cell or overheating nuclear core. Moderating voices from Sudan’s regional and global friends — even on different sides — fall on deaf ears.
Spurned diplomatic capital will be much more costly to redeploy when the time comes to invest again. While a consoling thought from history is that all wars eventually end, when will that be in Sudan?
War-torn for most of its 67-year existence as an independent state, another five or more years of acute strife is likely, with a further period of half-war, half-peace extending for a generation. No change is likely until the Sudanese fighting class wears itself down and space emerges for a compelling vision that can rise above a divisive debate on democracy. There is no indication so far of anyone emerging to take on this leadership mantle. Civil society activism may sometimes overthrow disliked regimes, but it cannot usually run governments.
Could external intervention reset Sudan’s trajectory? The foolhardiness of that in Africa’s second-largest nation is obvious, noting the continent’s dismal record with peacekeeping under the UN, African Union or former colonial powers. The current geopolitical situation suggests that the prospects of such an intervention in Sudan’s contested state are thankfully close to zero.
In the coming months, the geography of the conflict will continue to shift as the opposing sides consolidate their areas of control and fight to extend them. The country could fracture into different militarized zones. Other groups may appear, either allied to one of the protagonists or by carving out their own pieces of real estate.Such divisions will generate more instability, which will offer fertile ground for predators. These include existing criminal networks, especially human traffickers preying on the misery of desperation. Europe should be ready for what it fears most: More migrants across the Mediterranean and more news headlines as significant numbers perish in its depths.Waging wars needs resources and others, such as the Wagner Group or copycats, will capitalize on the economic opportunities offered by chaos. For example, to smuggle Sudan’s gold and minerals in exchange for weapons. Violent extremist groups in the Sahel are already poised to exploit Sudan’s vulnerability. They include the allies of the Rapid Support Force’s precursor, the Janjaweed, who are riding in from Libya and Chad, as well as Daesh cells that are biding their time.
Existential battles imply no self-restraint or adherence to the rules of war, despite exhortations from outside.
Sudan inhabits a very disturbing neighborhood, sharing boundaries with deeply distressed nations such as South Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Chad, the Central African Republic and Libya. Other unhappy countries, like the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Somalia, are just a hop away. And so, rather like a highly infectious virus causing a pandemic, prevalent instabilities could coalesce from the Atlantic to the Red Sea.
At a time when the West is worried about conflict with Russia spreading in Europe, or a new one starting in the Fast East with China, should we be concerned about what may emerge as a great African war, with Sudan at its center? This scenario is less fanciful when the continent-wide destabilizing impacts of accelerating climate change, environmental decline and deepening hunger and poverty are factored in. Sudan’s civil war is unlikely to stay confined to its territory.
That much is already evident with the 600,000 Sudanese who have fled the country. Many more will figure out how to leave safely. Planners should start preparing for 1 million to 2 million refugees over the coming year. Their impoverished neighbors must expect additional economic and social problems. As in the past, resistance groups will also emerge among the refugees, bringing political and security challenges. In many ways, the refugees are relatively lucky. The internally displaced — currently underestimated at 3 million — could double or treble in number as the fighting continues. A significant proportion will be used by armed groups as bait to attract resources from humanitarian agencies. Aid will get looted and “taxed” along the way — perhaps 30 percent of lifesaving food and other assistance will be diverted.
Aid workers will get killed and double standards mean that, while local staff deaths will be regretted, the deaths of foreigners will spark outrage. International donors will be mindful of impacts among taxpayers back home at the time of a widespread cost-of-living crisis. They will react with aid stoppages that penalize innocent victims. This copybook of the political economy of humanitarian aid is familiar from many complex emergency contexts, most recently in neighboring Ethiopia. As frustration rises because humanitarians cannot solve problems not of their making, we will have more angst-filled conferences on the future of global humanitarianism. None of this will relieve the worsening plight of the Sudanese. At the current war’s start in April, 16 million people — or about a third of the country’s population — were already dependent on humanitarian assistance for life-sustaining essentials such as food, healthcare and water. A month later, that number had risen to 25 million. On current trends, this will increase to 36 million, or eight out of every ten Sudanese.
The UN’s humanitarian appeal sought $1.7 billion at the beginning of the year and subsequently increased its demand to $2.6 billion. But with less than 20 percent funded so far, and the appeal size likely to reach $3 billion to $4 billion by year-end, such numbers are moot. Rising competition from other crises means that Sudan’s humanitarian share will be ever more limited, especially as donors tend to be less generous in cases where solutions are not forthcoming and authorities remain uncooperative or obstructive.
Meanwhile, the Sudanese cannot live on a diet of unfulfilled aid pledges when humanitarian access is so limited and delivery infrastructure such as hospitals are out of commission. A significant rise in mortality and morbidity from all types of acute and chronic conditions, as well as a stratospheric increase in malnutrition, are to be expected. As always, women and children will bear the brunt.
This stark scenario is presented not to demotivate those who care for Sudan, but to counsel that they help best by understanding what they cannot do. Sudan will have to find its own solutions, but that does not mean abandoning the Sudanese people. It requires solidarity by recognizing what foreigners must not do to worsen the crisis.
To start with, do not enforce shabby peace deals that reward, legitimize and empower warmakers. Do not shortcut accountability and justice for past and ongoing crimes against humanity.
This does not mean neutrality either, but if Sudan’s external stakeholders take sides, let them advise their proteges wisely, not with self-serving political and economic interests in mind. Do not sell inflexible forms of democracy copied from the West. Let the Sudanese find their own practical governance model.
And most importantly, remember that there is no Sudan without its people. So open borders to let them find safety and nurture them with open and generous hearts until they return to rebuild their shattered nation.
The Sudanese are a resourceful people and, when this nightmarish time passes — as it will — their undoubted contribution to our common world will amply repay the strategic patience we must practice in the interim.
• Mukesh Kapila is Professor Emeritus of Global Health and Humanitarian Affairs at the University of Manchester and a former senior official at the United Nations and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.

Investigating Malley… A Potential Bombshell
Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al Awsat/July 10/2023
If we are to believe the reports, the FBI is investigating Robert Malley, who had been President Joe Biden’s Special Envoy to Iran, for mishandling classified information, then we are looking at a political explosion.
It is no secret that Malley was too soft on Iran’s nuclear program. I wrote about him here on January 27, 2022, in an article I named after his nickname in Washington, “Hajj Mali.”
I have heard sources in the region and Europe, as well as Washington insiders, discuss Malley’s laxity with Iran. This is not an accusation leveled against him. I am identifying the ideological motives for being lenient with Tehran, what it has done and what it is doing since the time of President Obama.
Therefore, the details of his investigation for mishandling “classified information,” and before that, his own confirmation last week that he had been granted unpaid leave and that his security clearance was suspended earlier this year, all point to their being something serious.
The investigation with Malley, before the Wagner debacle began in Russia, as Wagner’s military forces marched to Moscow in an unprecedented scene, tells us something important. Nothing can compensate for institutionalization, be it in Moscow or Washington.
Here the reader may ask: How is that relevant to Russia? In Moscow, irregular forces were used to replace the army, and this proved dangerous. In Washington, we had an ideological diplomat seeking an agreement with Iran at any price, which is not how institutions or men of institutions operate.
In the event that any of the charges Malley is facing are proven in the court of law file, especially if he is shown to have let out confidential information, it would be a real blow or a devastating bomb. It would leave the Iranian wing in Washington - one that takes ideological positions, not political ones - stunned and staggered.
The Iranian wing in Washington includes media figures, academics, and politicians who became powerful during President Obama’s term. They have become more audacious, and they do not hide the justifications they make for Iran and its actions, despite all the threats that Iran poses in the region and Ukraine.And so, we have more questions today than answers regarding Malley’s investigation. He was recently replaced by Abram Paley as acting special envoy for Iran. If any breakthroughs are made, what impact would that have on the future of negotiations?
Will the negotiations falter, making a military conflict in the region more likely? We are not being hyperbolic when we say that the investigation into Malley, if significant mistakes are identified, could be a political bomb, especially with the US presidential elections approaching.
The Americans admit that Tehran is close to reaching the nuclear threshold, which would put more pressure on all the parties involved in the Iranian nuclear negotiations. We do not know where these investigations will lead us, especially since the FBI’s intervention means that the matter is serious.
For all of these reasons, we are on the verge of an amazing story, a political bomb, if real mistakes are proven.

Netanyahu and the Policy of Repurposing Failure
Sam Menassa/Asharq Al Awsat/July 10/2023
The most accurate way to see the military operations in Jenin, West Bank, and Gaza, is that they were conducted during a domestic standstill in Israel. Benjamin Netanyahu feels the impact of this standstill particularly sharply, as well do the Palestinians and the impotent and worn-out Palestinian Authority. The only explanation that one could reasonably ascribe to the military operations is that, in Netanyahu’s view, these operations could pave a way out of Israel’s impasse and the five-dimensional blockade he finds himself trapped behind - or that he trapped himself in.
The first dimension to this blockade is his insistence on forging a political alliance with the Israeli far-right. Since he cannot meet any of his fanatical allies’ other demands, this alliance has forced him to break the backs of Palestinians and violently clamp down on them, as he is doing in Gaza and the West Bank. The second dimension is his deep fear of becoming a second Ehud Olmert and being sent to prison because of the crimes he has been charged with. The third dimension is the exacerbation of Israel’s unprecedented domestic crisis after opposition to his government’s judicial reforms gave rise to mass protests. Indeed, this crisis became even more acute after the Knesset’s Constitution Committee approved the draft judicial reform law last week despite its previous vague statements suggesting a freeze. Netanyahu’s attempts to divert attention towards the Palestinian question and terrorism, which he hoped would leave the Israeli public rallying around the flag, do not seem to have deterred the protests. Fourth, we have Netanyahu’s desperation to avoid a breakdown of the Abrahamic Accords. Rather, he is keen on building on these accords at a time when his policies and his government are doing more to undermine them than anyone or anything else. Finally, we have his issues with the US administration, which is opposed to his policies and alliances, which is accompanied by the fierce opposition of the majority of American Jews against Netanyahu and his government. This majority, be it slim or overwhelming, has had major implications for relations between Washington and Tel Aviv, as well as Israel itself.
Conducting military operations against the Palestinians is Neyanhu’s only off-ramp. His current approach accurately reflects how he has maneuvered and defended from the front over the past decade. This strategy can also clearly be seen in his positions on the forgotten peace process, illegal settlements, which have destroyed the two-state solution, or what is left of it, and the war in Syria, which have had negative repercussions for Israel and left it fighting Iran on two fronts: Lebanon and in Syria.
The conclusion that can be drawn from Netanyahu’s policies, especially those adopted by his violent and fanatical current government, is that their objective is to ensure a divorce with peace and Israel’s democracy (albeit one that only the Jewish population enjoy), as shown by its judicial reform packages that seek to limit the powers of the Israeli Supreme Court and his acquiescence to his coalition partners’ demands, allowing them to form armed gangs of settlers that attack Palestinian villages.
Netanyahu, who has threatened to set Lebanon back one hundred years, has, turned Israel back from a country that could boast about its democracy and being a state of law, into a country that allows for the formation of armed militias and tolerates their actions. All of these policies suggest that he has no national strategy to speak of. Indeed, his actions demonstrate that he has been pursuing his interests, which left him so desperate to stay in power that he allied with fanatics whom he disagrees with and who are pushing his country to the brink of civil war.
In Palestine, the scene is no less devastating. The Palestinian Authority is now almost isolated from the majority of its people, both in the Palestinian interior and the diaspora. Twenty-somethings see no hope for a solution that could pave the way out of the difficult situations they have been put in. This generation has become disconnected from traditional political and armed factions; their only objective is to put an end to the occupation, siege, unemployment, and rampant corruption that define their lives. Meanwhile, the rupture between the PA and the youths has become irreparable, as it is unable to meet their aspirations and achieve their political, security, or social goals. Armed groups have arisen, most of which may not be controlled by known political or military parties.
Palestine has been suspended in time for years. Without getting into who was responsible for its collapse, we can say that the clock stopped moving in Palestine with the breakdown of the Oslo Accords. Nonetheless, without a realistic peace process, Oslo means nothing, which is why we are in this situation.
Netanyahu stuck to his guns. He stubbornly continued to pursue a cruel expansion of the occupation and put Palestinians living in the occupied territories under increased strain. When all they see is division, fragmentation, powerlessness, and rampant corruption, when there is politics, what can we expect from the Palestinians? The most optimistic expectations are bitter. Between cycles of violence that at times intensify and then fades at others, the Palestinians are being tortured slowly. If the violence snowballs into a large-scale war between the Palestinians and Israel, it would have serious repercussions for the region. Such a conflict would compel an array of highly determined forces led by Iran and its allies to intervene. This is the trajectory we will remain on for so long as the Netanyahu government remains in power and refuses to back down.
It seems there is no reason to bet on foreign acting ramping up the pressure on Netanyahu and his government. The United States will remain busy with the presidential elections until November 2024. Given their fears of losing right-wing American Jews’ votes, I cannot see the Democrats or the Republicans putting real pressure on Netanyahu. As for the European Union, its member states have trouble agreeing on just about anything. Even if they were to agree on pressuring Israel, it would take a long time for such a consensus to translate itself politically. Russia remains preoccupied with its war in Ukraine and its domestic problems. Even if it wanted to intervene, China’s influence on this question remains. The last external factor, Arab countries applying pressure, should not be belittled, and they will find it difficult to remain on the sidelines like neutral observers.
Is Netanyahu using his gains to make a gamble? Is he putting the future of Israeli ties to the Arab world in jeopardy? We will only have an answer once the limits and threats of the Israeli right’s madness become clear. As well as the Palestinians, this government has put Israel itself in a perilous position. The risks it has engendered by this government could give domestic actors, namely the sizable liberal opposition that has begun to see the link between its struggle for democracy and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a window of opportunity. The recent attacks on Gaza and Jenin demonstrated how interconnected Israeli democracy and the Palestinian conflict are. Indeed, Israel dropped eight places, becoming the 143 least peaceful place in the world on the 2023 Global Peace Index.