Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 07-08/2023
Israel's Gallant makes threats after Lebanon border flare-up
Naharnet/July 07/2023
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has threatened to respond to any “violation” of Israel’s “sovereignty,” hours after Israel shelled open areas in south Lebanon in response to mortar fire. “Against any violation of our sovereignty and challenge to our presence in our country, we will respond at the place and time we choose, in overt and covert ways, that will exact a clear price from those responsible for it,” Gallant said at a ceremony on the Israeli-Lebanese border. “The stranglehold of Hezbollah and Iran, who are fueling terrorism in our region, is unrelenting and drags the country (Lebanon) and its citizens into a continuous reality of poverty and crisis,” Gallant added. He also said that the Israeli army “maintains a high level of readiness and competence and will continue to act against Iran and Hezbollah's attempts to strengthen in the northern arena.”

UK defense senior advisor visits Lebanon, raises UK flag at UNIFIL
Naharnet/July 07/2023
The British Embassy in Lebanon welcomed the UK Defense Senior Advisor to the Middle East and North Africa (DSAME) Air Marshal Martin Sampson to Lebanon from 5 to 6 July. Sampson met Army Commander General Joseph Aoun), caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and caretaker Foreign Affairs Minister Abdallah Bou Habib. He was accompanied during his visits by Charge D’Affaires Camilla Nickless and the Defense Attaché Lt. Colonel Lee Saunders. During a special ceremony held at UNIFIL Headquarters in Naqoura, Sampson attended the raising of the United Kingdom’s flag at UNIFIL as a Troop Contributing Country. The UK is represented by a female officer as the Integrated Outreach Operations Officer, and is the 49th troop contributor to the Mission's now 10,101 peacekeepers. Charge D’Affaires Camilla Nickless said: “An important milestone in the UK’s contribution to Lebanon’s stability and security during the raising of the United Kingdom’s flag at UNIFIL. We fully support UNIFIL’s work in south Lebanon, as mandated in U.N. Resolution 1701. The visit of Air Marshal Martin Sampson to Lebanon and his continued close engagement with the LAF Commander is a symbol of our enduring support to the Lebanese Armed Forces.’’Sampson for his part said: “I was proud to take part in the United Kingdom’s flag raising ceremony at UNIFIL as a troop contributing country. Yesterday’s incident underscored UNIFIL’s critical role in support of stability and security in Lebanon. We urge everyone to exercise restraint and avoid any further escalation.”Sampson was referring to a cross-border exchange of hostilities on the Lebanese-Israeli frontier. “During my meetings I reiterated my support to the Lebanese people and that of the LAF given the current challenging context. We remain a close friend and strong ally of the Lebanese people and the Lebanese Armed Forces,” Sampson added.

Report: Foreign countries push for land border demarcation with Israel
Naharnet/July 07/2023
Hezbollah has learned about a "suspicious diplomatic" drive aiming to demarcate land borders between Lebanon and Israel, ad-Diyar newspaper reported Friday. The land demarcation has been discussed with Lebanese officials in foreign capitals during several meetings, the daily claimed.
The report comes a day after the Israeli army struck southern Lebanon, claiming that an anti-tank missile, that exploded in the border area between the two foes, was launched from Lebanon. It also comes at a time of rising tension between Israel and Hezbollah over two tents erected by Hezbollah in a disputed territory and Israel’s building of a wall around the Lebanese part of Ghajar, a village that Israeli troops captured during the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.

Hezbollah won’t attend Cabinet session for naming BDL governor
Naharnet/July 07/2023
Hezbollah has told the relevant parties that it is against the appointment of a new central bank governor by the current caretaker Cabinet, media reports said. Moreover, the party will not attend any Cabinet session aimed at naming a successor to outgoing Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh and it is in favor of the first vice governor assuming Salameh’s missions when the latter’s term expires on July 31, the reports said. Hezbollah’s reported stance came shortly after Salameh’s four deputies hinted that they would resign if a new governor is not named as soon as possible.

North MPs threaten protests if Qlayaat airport not reopened
Naharnet/July 07/2023
The MPs of the northern National Moderation Bloc have given the government two months to give an answer regarding the reopening of the Qlayaat airport – currently a military airbase – to civil aviation. “We have given the government a two-month deadline. If the answer turns out to be positive, we will salute it, but if it comes out negative, we are preparing for major popular protests,” MP Walid al-Baarini said in an interview with the Nidaa al-Watan newspaper. “All the political excuses and obstacles that some were launching are no longer justified, especially with the restoration of the Saudi-Iranian-Syrian relations,” Baarini added. As for Hezbollah’s possible security concerns over the opening of an airport outside the capital, the MP said: “We the MPs of Akkar, Dinniyeh and Minieh have met with our Baalbek-Hermel colleagues in parliament and heard positive stances from them, at least outwardly.” He added that there will be communication with all MPs in parliament and with the country’s spiritual leaders. As for the bloc’s recent meeting with caretaker PM Najib Mikati and its outcome, Baarini said: “We handed the government the technical file that was finalized two days ago.”The lawmaker added that the bloc hopes the Qlayaat airport will be used for cargo and charter flights, especially flights carrying groups seeking religious tourism, in light of the presence of several religious tourism sites in the North, such as Wadi Qannoubine, Ehden and other regions. MP Ashraf Rifi of the Tajaddod bloc meanwhile voiced support for the demand of the National Moderation Bloc. “We will seek through the Tajaddod bloc and the allied parliamentary bloc to press to open the airport due to its vital importance. We will also seek to activate the Rashid Karami International Fair and to rehabilitate the Tripoli refinery and the exclusive economic zone,” Rifi added. “The North needs all its facilities to create an economic cycle that would generate thousands of jobs for our people in Akkar and the North, and there are no excuses from now for any procrastinator, conspirator or negligent official,” Rifi said. The airport is currently known as the Rene Mouawad Air Base. It used to be a military-civil joint airport in northern Lebanon, six kilometers from the Lebanese–Syrian border. In the early 1960s, the airbase was a small airport owned by an oil company, which used small IPC airplanes for transporting its engineers, staff and workers between Lebanon and the Arab countries. In 1966, the Lebanese Army took control of the airport and started expanding and developing its technological capabilities. It later became one of the most modernized air bases in the region. According to an agreement signed by the Lebanese and French republics, a number of Mirage aircraft were supplied to the air force and pilots and technicians were sent to France to continue some courses related to the specified planes.
In the beginning of 1968, the military personnel finished their courses abroad and returned to Lebanon, with some pilots and technicians being transferred from Rayak Air Base to the Qlayaat base. In April of the same year, two aircraft, flown by Lebanese pilots, arrived to Lebanon and other non-stop flights continued until June 1969. Later during the Lebanese Civil War period, flights were significantly drawn down and the aircraft were kept in storage. In November 1989, the Lebanese parliament met at the airport after the Taif Agreement and elected René Moawad president. Having been assassinated in Beirut seventeen days later, the airport was later renamed in his honor, by a decree from the Lebanese parliament, and thus the airbase was established and became under the control of the Lebanese Air Force (in regards to the equipment and facilities) and under the jurisdiction of the North regional command (in regards to defense and order.)Middle East Airlines formerly ran flights between this air base and Beirut to serve Tripoli and the surrounding area. On July 13, 2006, the Israeli Air Force bombed the airbase during the 2006 war on Lebanon. The airport has since been repaired and in service, mainly by the Lebanese Air Force. In January 2012, the Lebanese cabinet announced plans to restore the airport so that it would be used for cargo and low-cost airlines. Lebanese authorities who have visited the airport announced that the airport would encompass a 500-square-meter duty-free area.

Amal MP calls for publishing of A&M audit report, says Berri wants that too
Naharnet/July 07/2023
Amal MP Ali Hassan Khalil has called on behalf of Amal and Speaker Nabih Berri for the publishing of an audit report submitted by the Alvarez & Marsal international auditing firm. The Finance Ministry had denied last week accusations that it had “hidden” the forensic audit report. "The report belongs to the Lebanese government and not to the Finance Ministry, and using its content falls under the government’s jurisdiction," the Finance Ministry said. Khalil said that all administrations and ministries must be audited too, as he lashed out at former President Michel Aoun who had accused Amal of standing against the forensic audit. "What was Aoun's role from 2005 to 2022? He was president for 6 years, and he had the largest parliamentary and ministerial bloc," Khalil said. Aoun had claimed that the ruling system is trying to hide the forensic audit because the report condemns those who received it or condemns someone they want to protect. The Nidaa al-Watan newspaper said the report consists of around 330 pages and is supposed to preliminary specify the types and dates of the possible financial crimes.

Baroud sounds alarm over possible vacuum at BDL
Naharnet/July 07/2023
The term of embattled three-decade chief Riad Salameh ends this month with no successor in sight, setting the stage for a leadership crisis at the central bank nearly four years into Lebanon's severe economic meltdown. Lebanon since last year has been governed by a caretaker cabinet with limited powers and without a president, and naming a high official could take months of political horse-trading.Lawyer and Former Minister Ziad Baroud said Friday that it is difficult for a caretaker cabinet to appoint a Central Bank governor. "But there is a solution," he added, explaining that according to Article 25 of the Monetary and Credit Law, the first deputy ruler would assume the mission of the ruler until a new ruler is appointed. The vice-governors of the central bank – Wassim Mansouri, Bashir Yakzan, Salim Chahine and Alexander Mouradian – plan to resign unless politicians swiftly name an incoming governor, two senior officials at the top financial body told AFP. on Thursday, the vice-governors urged authorities to name a successor for Salameh "as soon as possible", threatening -- without elaborating -- to "take appropriate action" should they fail. "Caretaker rule cannot apply to the highest monetary authority," the vice-governors said in a joint statement. A central bank official, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic, said the four vice-governors were planning to resign before the end of Salameh's mandate to pressure authorities into naming a new governor. "The governor's deputies statement raises the alarm about a vacuum crisis," Baroud said. "The resignation of the four deputies would be a major problem and the first deputy's resignation would pose a problem as well," he added. Once hailed as the guardian of the country's financial stability, Salameh, 72, is wanted by France and Germany in connection with alleged financial irregularities. Lebanon, however, does not extradite its citizens. Salameh has been the subject of judicial investigations at home and abroad into allegations including embezzlement, money laundering, fraud and illicit enrichment. He denies the accusations.His term is due to expire regardless of the claims against him.
Politicians 'buy time'
The central bank governor in Lebanon is named by cabinet decree for a six-year mandate that can be renewed multiple times, based on the finance minister's recommendation. In a country of sectarian power-sharing, the governorship is traditionally reserved for a Maronite Christian. If the position is vacant, the law stipulates that the first vice-governor take over. But the central bank official told AFP first vice-governor Wassim Manssouri has refused to take on the caretaker role, which has no limited timeframe, accusing Lebanese leaders of dragging their feet on crucial reforms to save the ailing economy. Another senior official, also requesting anonymity, said the vice-governors would resign "without delay", because they "cannot shoulder this responsibility while the political class continues to buy time". Lebanon's governing elite, locked in a power struggle, has been widely blamed for the country's financial meltdown and its recurrent power vacuums. No group has a clear majority in parliament, and lawmakers have failed a dozen times to elect a new president after Michel Aoun's term ended last year, amid bitter divisions between the Hezbollah and its opponents. "If the political class is unable to appoint a central bank governor, then this means that it has no intention of implementing any reforms," the first central bank official said. Such a prospect would leave the Lebanese state unable to fully operate, plunging the country further into crisis. Lebanon has been mired since 2019 in an economic collapse that has seen the local currency lose around 98 percent of its value against the dollar and pushed most of the population into poverty. Last week, the International Monetary Fund warned that Lebanon's failure to implement reforms could have "irreversible" consequences and jeopardize economic and social stability.

At least 1 dead, 5 hurt in shooting outside Bar Elias mosque
Associated Press/July 07/2023
A shooting outside a mosque left at least one person dead and five wounded Friday, a Lebanese security official said. The reason behind the shooting in the eastern town of Bar Elias was not immediately clear. The state-run National News Agency said more gunfire broke out later between Lebanese troops and the shooting suspect, who was wounded in that exchange. According to al-Jadeed TV, the shooter is in critical condition. Al-Jaded said the gunman opened fire at worshippers as they were leaving the mosque. A security official, speaking on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, said the man killed and the five wounded were all Syrian citizens. The town is home to many Syrian refugees who fled their country's 12-year conflict. Lebanon is home to more than 1 million Syrian refugees and anti-Syrian sentiments have been on the rise since Lebanon's economic meltdown began in October 2019.

Deputy Prime Minister Al Shami urges responsible action amidst Central Bank governor appointment debate
LBCI/July 07/2023
In a press release on Friday, Deputy Prime Minister Saadeh Al Shami stated: "While I agree with the statement issued by the four deputy governors of the Central Bank of Lebanon regarding the need and necessity to appoint a new governor, which is something I have been demanding for several weeks," he raised two questions. Firstly, regarding the threat of resignation implied in the statement, which according to him, is highly alarming at this critical time the country is going through. The statement refers to Article 18 of the Monetary and Credit Law, which outlines the procedure for appointing a new governor in case of vacancy. However, it conveniently overlooks Article 25, which clearly states that the first deputy governor assumes the governor's responsibilities in case of vacancy. "We cannot cherry-pick and selectively interpret the law as we please," Al Shami said. Secondly, the assertion that there is no government rescue plan is shocking, affirmed Al Shami, considering the existence of such a plan and the fact that the Central Bank of Lebanon, as an institution, was part of the team involved in its preparation, discussion, and agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). "Yes, we need a new governor for the Central Bank of Lebanon, but it is the responsibility of the deputy governors to fulfill their duties in case this appointment cannot be made," expressed the deputy prime minister.

Economic authorities urge the election of a President and the formation of a new government
LBCI/July 07/2023
The economic authorities conducted a comprehensive review of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) report from various aspects and extensively discussed its contents. Based on this, the bodies decided not to rush into giving an opinion on the report. They formed a committee tasked with conducting an in-depth study of the report and drawing accurate conclusions to be discussed with the IMF. In another aspect, during a meeting chaired by former Minister Mohammad Choucair, the economic authorities expressed their deep regret over the failure to elect a President after eight months of presidential vacuum due to the conflicts between political forces. Moreover, the authorities expressed concern about prolonging the vacuum, which would further extend the lethal vacuum in the governance of the Central Bank of Lebanon and paralyze state institutions. They warned that this scenario would undermine whatever remains of Lebanon's capabilities and achievements in the private sector, as well as the international momentum willing to help save the country. "Today, we are faced with real and promising opportunities to restore the state's credibility and return to the path of recovery and progress. These opportunities include the positive momentum of the Lebanese private sector, the successful summer season, the imminent start of oil and gas exploration in Block 9, the atmosphere of reconciliation and calm in the region, and the international will supporting Lebanon," the economic authorities stated. They also called on political forces not to waste time and to seize these opportunities by immediately electing a President and forming a new government, whose main tasks would include signing an agreement with the IMF, implementing comprehensive reforms, and approving a reliable, fair, and effective economic and financial rescue and recovery plan.
They expressed great satisfaction with the significant activity in the summer season, which would strengthen the economic situation and various sectors, as well as Lebanese households. They called on everyone, without exception, to create favorable conditions for a beautiful and promising summer season.

Joint statement by MPs highlights alarming situation at BDL
LBCI/July 07/2023
Several members of parliament, including Najat Aoun, Paula Yacoubian, Yassin Yassin, Firas Hamdan, and Melhem Khalaf, have issued a joint statement expressing their thoughts on the recent statement released by the Central Bank of Lebanon's deputies. They describe the statement as notable in terms of timing, format, and content, suggesting that it portrays a sense of desperation just three weeks before the end of the governor's term. In their statement, the MPs highlight several key points:
Firstly, they view the statement as an acknowledgment of the disastrous monetary policies implemented by the Central Bank, which the governor has presided over, involving unprecedented corruption for decades, particularly in recent years. The governor has become a subject of investigation and is wanted for justice in several countries. Secondly, they perceive the statement as an implicit accusation against traditional political forces that have failed to approve a comprehensive and integrated financial recovery plan over the past four years. These forces apparently avoided endorsing such a plan to seize people's deposits and deplete them systematically in collaboration with the banks. Thirdly, the statement is seen as a veiled announcement issued by the four deputies, representing the highest monetary authority in Lebanon, indicating an imminent and dramatic collapse that could occur at any moment. This collapse might be accompanied by a vacuum in the Central Bank governor position, an inability to appoint a new governor, and the deputies' resignation. Lastly, regardless of the circumstances, the MPs categorically reject any extension of the current governor's term, a notion discussed behind closed doors. They urge their fellow MPs to recognize the mentioned statement's gravity and the tragic situation's severity. They emphasize that a new Central Bank governor cannot be appointed without a new government, and a new government cannot be formed without electing a president. The responsibility of rescuing the country lies upon the shoulders of the MPs in the upcoming critical days. They warn against the destructive consequences of continued hesitation and passivity, which will further devastate the country and harm the people. Therefore, they call for immediate adherence to the constitution and the obligatory attendance of MPs to the parliamentary hall to elect a president. In conclusion, the MPs appeal to their colleagues to rise to the occasion and fulfill their historical responsibility and the trust placed in them by the hopeful people who elected them.

Transformation and tragedy: Beirut Port's historical journey through time
LBCI/July 07/2023
Beirut's contemporary story began with establishing the Beirut Port in 1887, following an Ottoman decree granting the French the privilege to develop the port. The Ottoman privileges granted to the French also included constructing the Beirut-Damascus road and building the Mar Mikhael-Beirut railway.
At the heart of the French vision was to make Beirut a gateway between Europe and the East. The construction of the first basin was completed in 1894, marking the beginning of the port's development and the design of the city and its streets. Under the French mandate, Beirut became a vital link in the Beirut-Damascus-Baghdad commercial route, competing with the British route of Haifa-Amman-Baghdad. After independence, the port accompanied the city's transition towards modernity and became a symbol of modernity. The construction of the grain silos in the late 1960s, coinciding with the building of the third and fourth basins, would have solidified Beirut's role as a transcontinental trade center if not for the pivotal events of the 1975 war. The port is more than just an economic engine in a city that constantly experiences movement like Beirut. It serves as the guardian of political and social memory, sometimes painful. However, the tragic events of the August 4th explosion motivated researcher and photographer Eddy Choueiry to document the history of the Beirut Port and pay tribute to its victims. He compiled an archive that awaits publication. The port created Beirut, but what remains of the city after the port's explosion? The city's history, with all its significance for the port's geopolitical and strategic role and its virtuous engineering to enhance its functionality, cannot be ignored in any project to modernize the port.

Raise a glass to Lebanese wine: Explore the vineyards with the Wine Tourism
LBCI/July 07/2023
Are you ready to indulge in the finest Lebanese wine? Is there anything more delightful than Lebanon itself? Ever thought about trying wine tourism? Well, stay with us as we share the details. Cheers! If you're a wine lover looking for a memorable day of exploration, we have the perfect solution for you: the Wine Tourism Lebanon app. This app will take you on an immersive journey, allowing you to discover the essence of Lebanon's wine industry while experiencing its picturesque surroundings. Lebanon's wine industry has been deeply rooted from North to South for thousands of years. Initially nurtured within monasteries and on a small-scale basis, it has evolved into a thriving national industry. Today, Lebanon annually exports 9 to 10 million bottles of wine to 44 countries around the globe, contributing a financial boost of $28 to $36 million to the Lebanese economy. As summer approaches, the wineries in Lebanon eagerly await your arrival. Prepare your taste buds to savor the finest varieties of wine amidst breathtaking vineyards and stunning landscapes. The Wine Tourism Lebanon app serves as your guide, placing all the information you need at your fingertips with a simple tap.

UN-Habitat and Ministry of Environment launch nationwide project to reduce marine litter and plastic pollution
UNIC/July 07/2023
Under the patronage of the Lebanese Minister of Environment, Dr. Nasser Yassin, and in the presence of the German Ambassador to Lebanon, H.E. Andreas Kindl; and, the United Nations Deputy Special Coordinator, Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Lebanon, Imran Riza, in addition to representatives from the public sector, UN agencies, NGOs, and media – UN-Habitat launched today the “Reducing Marine Litter in the Mediterranean through Waste Wise Cities Lebanon” project, also known as “ReMaL.” Funded by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, and Nuclear Safety at a budget of EUR 4,574,096 and implemented in partnership with the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy and Technische Universität Berlin, the ReMaL project aims to enhance municipal solid waste management and resource efficiency in coastal Lebanon to reduce marine litter in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Specifically, by supporting coastal unions of municipalities and the national government in the implementation of the Integrated Solid Waste Management Law of Lebanon − Law No. 80 (2018). “The launch of the ReMaL project is a step in the right direction for the environmental recovery of Lebanon. In line with the Ministry of Environment’s vision for the protection and preservation of Lebanon’s natural environment, and the roadmap for integrated solid-waste management, the project will address a major challenge facing Lebanon – particularly in coastal areas to reduce marine litter and plastic pollution. ReMaL project will help in protecting our coastline, our marine life, and our people. Through the project, the Ministry of Environment will work with UN-Habitat to engage municipal authorities and local communities to devise local plans to reduce marine litter and manage their waste in an integrated manner. This will help in making Lebanon's coastal cities cleaner and healthier," said H.E. Dr. Nasser Yassin, Lebanese Minister of Environment. The ReMaL project will work across several interventions including data collection on waste to inform and establish a National Online Waste Observatory to support evidence-based decision making; development of Integrated Solid Waste Management Plans for coastal service zones; and implementation of pilot projects to improve waste management and prevent marine litter.
“Waste constitutes one of the main problems of Lebanon and its people, and it will remain a challenge for generations to come. To preserve this beautiful country – its mountains and beaches, its forests and plains, its cities and villages, its people and its animals – a huge effort is necessary. I hope that the presence of all of you here today will play out into real action, into long-term commitment, into actual, sustainable improvement. In my term as ambassador to Lebanon, I have been at many such launches and kick-off meetings, but more important is to see the outcome everyone commits themselves to at the start. This project is about a direct, immediate impact on people’s everyday lives. I truly hope that we will see this positive impact, that we can witness progress and success in working on this project,” said H.E. Andreas Kindl, Ambassador of Germany to Lebanon.
As part of this three-year-long project a nationwide awareness-raising campaign on sustainable waste management and marine litter prevention will be rolled-out. The findings of this project will inform the formulation of policy recommendations for national institutions on waste management and marine litter in an effort to improve and build capacities of national frameworks and actors involved.
“In the complex multi-faceted crisis facing Lebanon, which continues to challenge and further exacerbate the country’s humanitarian and development trajectory, it is very important that coordinated steps and measures are taken to prevent further deterioration of an already fragile natural ecosystem. Protecting the marine environment along the Lebanese coast is critical as it provides climate regulation, food, jobs, livelihoods, and socio-economic progress. By bringing together multiple partners, from national to local authorities, international to local organizations, academia, private sector institutions, and local communities – using a bottom-up localized and area-based approach, the ‘ReMaL project’ provides an important opportunity for the UN to reaffirm its commitment to help steer Lebanon back onto the path of sustainable development,” said Mr. Imran Riza, the United Nations Deputy Special Coordinator, Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Lebanon, in his opening remarks. UN-Habitat and partners will work with thirteen unions of municipalities and respective communities throughout the course of the project to ensure that the project’s planned interventions are targeted and based on the needs of their communities to promote uptake, ownership and sustainability. “Lebanon’s main cities sit along the nation’s coastline. These cities are major contributors to plastic pollution and marine litter. They are therefore also part of the solution to fostering and identifying sustainable solutions to the collection and management of solid waste. By working together with national and local authorities and communities through the ReMaL project, we can set long-term solid waste management practices, clean up our coastlines, protect our marine life, and promote a more sustainable and green future for Lebanon,” said Taina Christiansen, Head of UN-Habitat Lebanon Country Programme. --

Berri broaches political developments with Caretaker Minister Mawlawi, MP Pakradounian/July 07/2023
NNA/July 07/2023 
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Friday at his Ain al-Tineh residence Caretaker Minister of Interior and Municipalities, Judge Bassam Mawlawi, with whom he reviewed the current general situation, especially the security one, and the latest political developments. Speaker Berri also met with the Secretary General of Tashnag Party, MP Hagop Pakradounian, with whom he discussed the current general situation and legislative affairs. Berri later received former Central Bank Vice Governor Mohammed Baassiri.

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 07-08/2023
World Court to hear Syria torture claims on July 19 and 20
THE HAGUE (Reuters)/Fri, July 7, 2023
The World Court on July 19 and 20 will hear a request by the Netherlands and Canada that it order Syria to cease all acts of torture and arbitrary detention, as part of a case alleging the country has breached a U.N. anti-torture treaty. The hearing at the Peace Palace, the court's seat in the Hague, will mark the first time an international court has looked at alleged abuses committed in Syria during 12 years of conflict. The International Court of Justice, also known as the World Court, announced last month that the Netherlands and Canada had filed a case against Damascus for breaching the U.N. convention against torture since 2011. Syria’s government and President Bashar al-Assad have rejected accusations of torture and extrajudicial killings in a war that the United Nations has said claimed hundreds of thousands of lives. In their application for emergency measures, Canada and the Netherlands asked the court to order Syria to stop all acts of torture and cruel treatment and end arbitrary detentions, among other things. The ICJ can issue such orders in an effort to ensure a situation does not deteriorate in the several years it generally takes the court to rule on the main claim. However, it has no power to enforce its rulings. The case at the ICJ, the U.N.'s highest court, is the first time an international court will hear a case trying to hold the Assad government accountable for gross human rights violations and torture. Some Syrian regime officials have been prosecuted for acts of torture in universal jurisdiction cases, notably in Germany, but those cases center on individual criminal responsibility. "This is different because it is holding the state responsible for torture being committed on an industrial scale," said British lawyer Toby Cadman who is advising the Dutch government in the case. Syria's 12-year civil war has killed hundreds of thousands of people, displaced millions and drawn in regional and world powers.

France halts repatriating families of jihadists from Syria
AFP/July 07/2023
A diplomatic source said on Friday that France will halt collective repatriation operations for the wives of jihadists and their children detained in camps in northeastern Syria, such as those carried out this week, due to the lack of willing participants. The source told Agence France-Presse, "After repatriating all the mothers who expressed their desire to leave Syria, there will be no further operations of this kind."France repatriated ten women and 25 children from Syria on Tuesday, in the fourth operation of its kind in a year. The diplomatic source clarified on Friday that France cannot "repatriate residents abroad by force, nor their children, of course," adding that 169 children and 57 women have been repatriated to French territory since 2019. The source added that "some extremist mothers have stated that they wish to remain in Syria," without disclosing the exact number. An informed source had previously told Agence France-Presse in May that around 80 French women did not wish to "return." These women had voluntarily traveled to areas controlled by jihadist groups in Iraq and Syria and were arrested after the fall of the Islamic State in 2019. Any adult French citizen who travels to the Iraqi-Syrian region and remains there is subject to legal procedures. Until the summer of 2022, France has decided to limit repatriation operations to orphaned or minor children whose mothers have agreed to waive their custody rights.

A drone strike in Syria kills 1 militant with Islamic State links and wounds a passerby
BEIRUT (AP)/Fri, July 7, 2023
A drone strike believed to have been carried out by the U.S.-led coalition in northern Syria Friday killed one man with Islamic State links and wounded a passerby, a paramedic group and an opposition war monitor said. The Syrian Civil Defense, also known as the White Helmets, said the man was killed while riding a motorcycle. It added that a passerby was also wounded. Rami Abdurrahman, who heads the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said the man targeted by the drone was a militant linked to the Islamic State group. The Observatory said the attack occurred on the road connecting the town of al-Bab with the village of Bazaa. The U.S.-led coalition has been targeting militants linked to al-Qaida and IS for years. In May, the U.S. military said it was investigating reports that it had killed a civilian in a strike earlier that month in northwest Syria while targeting a senior al-Qaida leader. On any given day there are at least 900 U.S. forces in Syria, along with an undisclosed number of contractors, who partner with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. They are tasked with preventing a comeback by IS, which swept through Iraq and Syria in 2014, taking control of large swaths of territory, and sometimes targeting other militant groups. Despite their defeat in Syria in March 2019, IS sleeper cells still carry out deadly attacks in the war-torn country mainly targeting Syrian government forces, SDF members and local officials. In another part of Syria, an accident on the road, linking the central city of Homs with the historic town of Palmyra, killed 16 people including women and children, according to state news agency SANA. It said the bodies were moved to hospitals in the central province of Homs.

UN condemns excessive force by Israel in its Jenin raid
Associated PressFri, July 7, 2023
In a rare condemnation of Israel, the U.N. chief has denounced the country's excessive use of force in its largest military operation in two decades targeting a refugee camp in the West Bank. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, clearly angered by the impact of the Israeli attack on the Jenin refugee camp, said the operation had left over 100 civilians injured, forced thousands to flee, damaged schools and hospitals and disrupted water and electricity networks. He also criticized Israel for preventing the injured from getting medical care and humanitarian workers from reaching everyone in need.
"I strongly condemn all acts of violence against civilians, including acts of terror," Guterres told reporters. Asked whether this condemnation applied to Israel, he replied: "It applies to all use of excessive force, and obviously in this situation, there was an excessive force used by Israeli forces."The U.N. chief again called on Israel "to abide by its obligations under international law," and to exercise restraint and use only proportional force. "The use of airstrikes is inconsistent with the conduct of law enforcement operations," he stressed.
Guterres reminded Israel that "as the occupying power, it has a responsibility to ensure that the civilian population is protected against all acts of violence." The secretary-general's condemnation followed a statement by three U.N. independent human rights experts on Wednesday saying that the Israeli airstrikes and ground actions "amount to egregious violations of international law and standards on the use of force and may constitute a war crime." The experts on human right in the Palestinian territory, on the rights of the internally displaced, and on violence against women and girls called for Israel to be held accountable for its illegal occupation and violent acts to perpetuate it. Israel's two-day offensive meant to crack down on Palestinian militants destroyed the Jenin camp's narrow roads and alleyways, forced thousands of people to flee their homes and killed 12 Palestinians. One Israeli soldier also was killed. The Israeli army claimed to have inflicted heavy damage on militant groups in the operation at the camp which ended Wednesday. Ahead of the Israeli withdrawal, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to carry out similar operations if needed. This comes after more than a year of Israeli-Palestinian violence. The Jenin camp and an adjacent town of the same name have been a flashpoint since the violence began escalating in spring 2022. The offensive also further weakened the Palestinian Authority, Israel's erstwhile partner in battling militants, which already had little control in the camp to begin with. Guterres said he understands Israel's legitimate concerns with its security. "But escalation is not the answer," he said, "it simply bolsters radicalization and leads to a deepening cycle of violence and bloodshed." "Restoring the hope of the Palestinian people in a meaningful political process, leading to a two-state solution and the end of the occupation, is an essential contribution by Israel to its own security," the secretary-general stressed. Israel captured the West Bank, east Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip in the 1967 Mideast war. The Palestinians seek those territories for their hoped-for independent state, a goal supported by the United Nations and many countries around the world.

Israeli forces kill 2 Palestinians in shootout in the occupied West Bank
Associated Press/July 7, 2023
Israeli forces killed two Palestinians in a flashpoint city in the occupied West Bank Friday, days after Israel concluded a major two-day offensive meant to crack down on militants. The persistent violence raised questions about the effectiveness of the raid earlier this week, which saw Israel launch rare airstrikes on militant targets, deploy hundreds of troops and cause widespread damage to roads, homes and businesses. As a result of the raid, 12 Palestinians and one Israeli soldier were killed. The raid bore the hallmarks of the second Palestinian uprising, a period of violence in the early 2000s that killed thousands. The Israeli domestic security agency Shin Bet said Friday the two men, who it claimed were behind a shooting attack this week, were killed in a gun battle with Israeli forces in the heart of the city of Nablus, the West Bank's commercial capital. The Palestinian Health Ministry said two men were killed by Israeli fire, identifying them as Khayri Mohammed Sari Shaheen, 34, and Hamza Moayed Mohammed Maqbool, 32. In the aftermath of the shootout, bullet casings littered the blood-stained ground. Palestinians carried the bodies of the men killed into the hospital, chanting "God is great!" as guns fired into the air.
Friday's deaths are part of a year-long spiral violence that shows no signs of abating, despite the fierce Israeli operation this week in the Jenin refugee camp. They follow a shooting on Thursday by a Hamas militant near an Israeli West Bank settlement that killed an Israeli soldier. Israel has been staging raids in the West Bank for 16 months, in response to a spate of Palestinian attacks against Israelis last spring. The northern West Bank, which includes Nablus and Jenin and where the Palestinian Authority has less of a foothold, has been a major friction point during that period. Over 140 Palestinians have been killed this year in the West Bank, and Palestinian attacks targeting Israelis have killed at least 27 people, including a shooting last month that killed four settlers. Israel captured the West Bank, east Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip in the 1967 Mideast war. The Palestinians seek those territories for their hoped-for independent state.

Yellen says 'impossible' to decouple China, US economies
Associated Press/July 7, 2023
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Friday that a decoupling of the U.S. and Chinese economies would be "virtually impossible" and would destabilize global markets, in comments made while on a visit to Beijing packed with talks with officials and businesses. Yellen's four-day trip is her first to China as Treasury chief, and she is the second high-ranking U.S. official to visit recently after Secretary of State Antony Blinken last month. The United States has in recent months said it is seeking to "de-risk" from China by limiting the world's second-largest economy's access to advanced technology deemed crucial to Washington's national security. The U.S. has blacklisted a number of Chinese companies to prevent them from accessing the most advanced chips while pushing its allies to follow suit. Yellen on Friday stressed that Washington was not seeking a "wholesale separation of our economies". "We seek to diversify, not to decouple. A decoupling of the world's two largest economies would be destabilizing for the global economy," Yellen told a meeting with representatives of US businesses at a session hosted by the American Chamber of Commerce in Beijing. "And it would be virtually impossible to undertake." Ahead of Yellen's trip, Beijing unveiled new export controls on metals key to semiconductor manufacturing on national security grounds, in the latest salvo in the chips war. The Treasury secretary Friday told American businesspeople Washington was "concerned" about the curbs. "We are still evaluating the impact of these actions, but they remind us of the importance of building resilient and diversified supply chains," she said.
- 'Win-win' -
Beijing has struck an optimistic tone about the visit, with China's finance ministry saying on Friday that it would serve to "strengthen communication and exchange between the two countries". "The nature of China-U.S. economic and trade relations is mutually beneficial and win-win, and there is no winner in a trade war or 'decoupling and breaking chains'," a ministry official said in a statement. On Friday morning, Yellen had a "substantive conversation" with her previous counterpart, former Vice Premier Liu He, as well as the outgoing governor of China's central bank, Yi Gang, a U.S. Treasury official said.
"They discussed the global economic outlook as well as the respective economic outlooks for the United States and China," the official added. On Friday afternoon, Yellen is due to meet Premier Li Qiang at Beijing's Great Hall of the People, providing a chance to discuss the economic relationship, raise concerns and find opportunities for collaboration. "Yellen actually appears to be a more down-to-earth member of the Biden administration," Tao Wenzhao, a fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told AFP. "I think we welcome Yellen's visit, and this on a functional level should allow both sides to warm up to each other," he said.
"We are now reshaping, rebuilding China-U.S. relations."
- 'Avoid misunderstanding'-
In a tweet after arriving on Thursday, Yellen said that although the United States would protect its national security when needed, "this trip presents an opportunity to communicate and avoid miscommunication or misunderstanding". The United States does not expect specific policy breakthroughs this time, but hopes for frank and productive conversations that can pave the way for future talks, a U.S. Treasury official told reporters on Thursday. But, they said, "especially if they're things that we may disagree about, it's even more important that we're talking". Tensions soared earlier this year when the United States detected and then shot down what it said was a Chinese spy balloon after the craft traversed its territory. Blinken cancelled a visit to China over the incident but eventually travelled to the country in June. During that trip, both sides agreed on the need to stabilize their relationship. But Yellen faces an uphill struggle in persuading officials in Beijing that U.S. actions -- such as tightened export curbs on high-end semiconductors -- are aimed at safeguarding national security and not an attempt to stifle China's economic rise. Underscoring the challenges she could face, The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. administration is mulling restricting Chinese firms' access to US cloud computing services provided by companies such as Amazon and Microsoft.

Iraq opens probe into Israeli academic kidnapping
Agence France Presse/July 07/2023
Iraq has opened an investigation into the suspected kidnapping of an Israeli-Russian academic after her disappearance in Baghdad, a government spokesman said. Elizabeth Tsurkov, a doctoral student at Princeton University and fellow at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, has been missing in Iraq for more than three months. The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday accused Iraq's Kataeb Hezbollah of holding her, but the pro-Iran armed faction has implied it was not involved in her disappearance. Kataeb Hezbollah is part of the Hashed al-Shaabi force, former paramilitaries that were integrated into Iraqi security forces in recent years. Asked about her disappearance on television late Thursday, government spokesman Bassem al-Awadi said "the Iraqi government is indeed conducting an official investigation". "Given the level of the case, its intricacies, there will be no official statement regarding this matter until the Iraqi government completes its official investigation and reaches conclusions," he said. "After that, there will be statements or announcements on official stances," he told Al-Ahd station, which is close to Hashed al-Shaabi. Tsurkov had arrived in Baghdad "at the beginning of December 2022", a Western diplomat in Iraq said on Wednesday on condition of anonymity. The academic has not been active on Twitter, where she has almost 80,000 followers and describes herself as "passionate about human rights", since March 21. An Iraqi intelligence source said Tsurkov was kidnapped in Baghdad "at the beginning of Ramadan", the Muslim fasting month which this year commenced on March 23. On Wednesday, Netanyahu's office said Tsurkov "is still alive and we hold Iraq responsible for her safety and well-being". She had travelled to Iraq "on her Russian passport at her own initiative pursuant to work on her doctorate and academic research on behalf of Princeton University in the US", it added. On her personal website, Tsurkov said she wanted to "understand and convey" the views and experiences of people in the Middle East and "highlight abuses by powerful actors... in the region". In a statement on Thursday evening, Kataeb Hezbollah said it was doing everything it could to uncover the fate of "Zionist hostage or hostages" in the country.

Iran Becomes Full Member of Shanghai Cooperation Organization
FDD/July 07/2023
Latest Developments
Iran officially became the ninth member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi participating in the organization’s virtual summit on July 4. Iran’s entry into the SCO marks another step by the Islamic Republic to bolster the Russia-China-Iran economic and military axis against the West. Founded in 2001 by China and Russia, the SCO is a Eurasian security and political group that also includes India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan.
Expert Analysis
“In championing Iran’s SCO membership, Beijing aims to demonstrate ideological solidarity with Tehran while also easing the regime’s international isolation. In exchange, China hopes to secure favorable terms for Iranian oil while also benefitting from Iranian insight into U.S. sanctions evasion — a key Chinese priority as it weighs possible plans to invade Taiwan.” — Craig Singleton, FDD China Program Deputy Director and Senior Fellow
“The Chinese Communist Party and the Islamic Republic of Iran are united in their disdain for the United States, and increasingly close Sino-Iranian relations present genuine national security challenges for Washington, its Arab partners, and Israel. Chinese investment in Tehran will make U.S.-led sanctions against the Islamic Republic less effective, eroding Washington’s leverage and increasing the potential necessity for military action against Iran’s nuclear program.” —Bradley Bowman, Senior Director of FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power
China Active in Middle East
Iran’s accession to the SCO was initially approved in a 2021 vote of member states. Earlier that year, Tehran and Beijing signed a 25-year strategic partnership. The exact contents of the agreement remain a secret, but a leaked copy called for China and Iran to conduct combined military training, exercises, weapons development, and intelligence sharing. More recently, Beijing brokered an agreement between Iran and rival Saudi Arabia to reestablish relations, with both countries agreeing to reopen their respective embassies after a seven-year freeze. China is a major importer of oil from Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Iran-Russia Alliance Against the West
Despite their competition to sell cheap, sanctioned oil to the likes of China and other states defying U.S. sanctions, Iran and Russia have cobbled together a political and military alliance. Iran’s provision to Russia of suicide drones and desperately needed artillery shells and ammunition has helped prolong and bolster Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In April, The Wall Street Journal reported that Russian cargo ships have imported more than 300,000 artillery shells and a million rounds of ammunition from Iran through the Caspian Sea. Earlier this year, Moscow and Tehran moved forward with plans to construct a factory to produce Iranian Shahed-136 drones — which Moscow rebranded as the Geran-2 — near the Russian town of Yelabuga. In return, Russia is helping Iran advance its cyber warfare and digital surveillance capabilities by providing it with advanced digital surveillance software, according to The Wall Street Journal. The software enables the regime in Tehran to hack into phones and other digital systems used by dissidents and other adversaries.

West clashes with Russia and Iran at UN over Tehran's uranium enrichment and drones for Russia
UNITED NATIONS (AP)/Fri, July 7, 2023
The United States and its Western allies clashed with Russia and Iran at the U.N. Security Council on Thursday over Tehran’s advancing uranium enrichment and its reported supply of combat drones to Moscow being used to attack Ukraine. The sharp exchanges came at the council's semi-annual meeting on implementation of its resolution endorsing the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and six major countries known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which the U.S. under then-President Donald Trump left in 2018. At the start of the meeting, Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia accused Britain, which hold the council presidency, of seeking to hold “an openly politicized show” by inviting Ukraine to take part in the meeting when it is not part of the JCPOA. He demanded a procedural vote on its participation. U.S. deputy ambassador Robert Wood countered, accusing both Iran and Russia of participating in the transfer of drones used in Ukraine without prior Security Council approval in violation of the 2015 resolution. “This is a matter of life or death for the Ukrainian people,” Wood said. “It would be unconscionable to deny Ukraine the opportunity to speak at this meeting when it is experiencing the devastating effects of Iran’s violation of resolution 2231 firsthand.” Britain’s U.N. Ambassador Barbara Woodward, who was chairing the council meeting, then called for a vote on whether Ukraine could participate. Twelve members voted “yes,” while China and Russia voted “no” and Mozambique abstained. The United States, Britain, France and Ukraine have urged U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to send investigators to Ukraine to examine debris from drones used in Russia’s attacks, insisting that resolution 2231 gives him a mandate to open an investigation.
Russia insists he has no such authority and Nebenzia warned the U.N. Secretariat against taking any such action. Iran’s U.N. Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani added that any U.N. findings “based on such illegal activities is null and void.”U.N. political chief Rosemary DiCarlo said in her briefing to the council that France, Germany, Ukraine, the U.K. and U.S. had written letters concerning alleged transfers of drones from Iran to Russia and had provided photographs and their analyses of the recovered drones. “The Secretariat continues to examine the available information,” DiCarlo said, giving no indication of when or if a U.N. investigation would take place.
Ukraine’s U.N. Ambassador Sergiy Kyslytsya told the council that more than 1,000 drone launches over Ukraine had been recorded and that analysis by Ukrainian and international experts confirmed their Iranian origin. Russia's Nebenzia accused Ukraine and the West of fomenting misinformation and dismissed the evidence as comical. France, Germany and the UK, which are parties to the JCPOA, said in a joint statement that Iran has also been in violation of its nuclear commitments under the 2015 deal for four years. They pointed to the International Atomic Energy Agency’s reports that Iran's total stockpiles of enriched uranium are now 21 times the amount permitted under the 2015 nuclear deal — and the IAEA's detection in January of uranium particles enriched to 83.7%, which is almost at weapons-grade levels of 90%. Any stockpile of uranium at that level could be quickly used to produce an atomic bomb if Iran chooses. The 2015 nuclear deal limited Tehran’s uranium stockpile to 300 kilograms (661 pounds) and enrichment to 3.67% — enough to fuel a nuclear power plant. But following the U.S. withdrawal, Tehran escalated its nuclear program and has been producing uranium enriched to 60% purity — a level for which nonproliferation experts already say Tehran has no civilian use. Iran informed the IAEA that “unintended fluctuations” in enrichment levels may have occurred accounting for the particles enriched to 83.7%, and Iravani, the Iranian ambassador, and Russia’s Nebenzia both said the issue has been resolved. France, Germany and the UK said Iran also “continues to develop and improve ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons,” pointing to a May 25 test of a missile they said is capable of delivering a warhead to a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles). U.S. ambassador Wood said “Iran’s ballistic missile activity – especially in light of Tehran’s nuclear ambitions and its threatening rhetoric – is an enduring threat to regional and international peace and security.” Iravani countered that “Iran is fully determined to vigorously pursue its peaceful nuclear activities including enrichment." Negotiations on the U.S. rejoining the deal and Iran returning to its commitments broke down last August. European Union Ambassador Olof Skoog told the council the EU compromise text is still on the table “as a potential point of departure for any renewed effort to bring the JCPOA back on track.” Iravani said: “We are still prepared for the resumption of negotiations should the other side be ready to do the same.”

Why the US is willing to send Ukraine cluster munitions now
Associated Press/July 7, 2023
The United States has decided to send cluster munitions to Ukraine to help its military push back Russian forces entrenched along the front lines. The Biden administration is expected to announce on Friday that it will send thousands of them as part of a new military aid package worth $800 million, according to people familiar with the decision who were not authorized to discuss it publicly before the official announcement and spoke on condition of anonymity. The move will likely trigger outrage from some allies and humanitarian groups that have long opposed the use of cluster bombs.
Proponents argue that Russia has already been using the controversial weapon in Ukraine and that the munitions the U.S. will provide have a reduced dud rate, meaning there will be far fewer unexploded rounds that can result in unintended civilian deaths. Here is a look at what cluster munitions are, where they have been used and why the U.S. plans to provide them to Ukraine now.
WHAT IS A CLUSTER MUNITION?
A cluster munition is a bomb that opens in the air and releases smaller "bomblets" across a wide area. The bomblets are designed to take out tanks and equipment, as well as troops, hitting multiple targets at the same time. The munitions are launched by the same artillery weapons that the U.S. and allies have already provided to Ukraine for the war — such as howitzers — and the type of cluster munition that the U.S. is planning to send is based on a common 155 mm shell that is already widely in use across the battlefield. In previous conflicts, cluster munitions have had a high dud rate, which meant that thousands of the smaller unexploded bomblets remained behind and killed and maimed people decades later. The U.S. last used its cluster munitions in battle in Iraq in 2003, and decided not to continue using them as the conflict shifted to more urban environments with more dense civilian populations.
On Thursday, Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said the Defense Department has "multiple variants" of the munitions and "the ones that we are considering providing would not include older variants with (unexploding) rates that are higher than 2.35%."
WHY PROVIDE THEM NOW?
For more than a year the U.S. has dipped into its own stocks of traditional 155 howitzer munitions and sent more than 2 million rounds to Ukraine. Allies across the globe have provided hundreds of thousands more.
A 155 mm round can strike targets 15 to 20 miles (24 to 32 kilometers) away, making them a munition of choice for Ukrainian ground troops trying to hit enemy targets from a distance. Ukrainian forces are burning through thousands of the rounds a day battling the Russians. Yehor Cherniev, a member of Ukraine's parliament, told reporters at a German Marshall Fund event in the U.S. this spring that Kyiv would likely need to fire 7,000 to 9,000 of the rounds daily in intensified counteroffensive fighting. Providing that many puts substantial pressure on U.S. and allied stocks. The cluster bomb is an attractive option because it would help Ukraine destroy more targets with fewer rounds, and since the U.S. hasn't used them in conflict since Iraq, it has large amounts of them in storage it can access quickly, said Ryan Brobst, a research analyst for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
A March 2023 letter from top House and Senate Republicans to the Biden administration said the U.S. may have as many as 3 million cluster munitions available for use, and urged the White House to send the munitions to alleviate pressure on U.S. war supplies. "Cluster munitions are more effective than unitary artillery shells because they inflict damage over a wider area," Brobst said. "This is important for Ukraine as they try to clear heavily fortified Russian positions." Tapping into the U.S. stores of cluster munitions could address Ukraine's shell shortage and alleviate pressure on the 155 mm stockpiles in the U.S. and elsewhere, Brobst said.
IS USING THEM A WAR CRIME?
Use of cluster bombs itself does not violate international law, but using them against civilians can be a violation. As in any strike, determining a war crime requires looking at whether the target was legitimate and if precautions were taken to avoid civilian casualties. "The part of international law where this starts playing (a role), though, is indiscriminate attacks targeting civilians," Human Rights Watch's associate arms director Mark Hiznay told The Associated Press. "So that's not necessarily related to the weapons, but the way the weapons are used." A convention banning the use of cluster bombs has been joined by more than 120 countries, which agreed not to use, produce, transfer or stockpile the weapons and to clear them after they've been used. The U.S., Russia and Ukraine haven't signed on.
WHERE HAVE THEY BEEN USED?
The bombs have been deployed in many recent conflicts, including by U.S. forces. The U.S. initially considered cluster bombs an integral part of its arsenal during the invasion of Afghanistan that began in 2001, according to HRW. The group estimated that the U.S.-led coalition dropped more than 1,500 cluster bombs in Afghanistan during the first three years of the conflict. The Defense Department had been due by 2019 to stop use of any cluster munitions with a rate of unexploded ordnance greater than 1%. But the Trump administration rolled back that policy, allowing commanders to approve use of such munitions. Syrian government troops often used cluster munitions — supplied by Russia — against opposition strongholds during that country's civil war, frequently hitting civilian targets and infrastructure. And Israel used them in civilian areas in south Lebanon, including during the 1982 invasion.
During the monthlong 2006 war with Hezbollah, HRW and the United Nations accused Israel of firing as many as 4 million cluster munitions into Lebanon. That left unexploded ordnance that threatens Lebanese civilians to this day. The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen has been criticized for its use of cluster bombs in the war with the Iran-backed Houthi rebels that has ravaged the southern Arabian country. In 2017, Yemen was the second deadliest country for cluster munitions after Syria, according to the U.N. Children have been killed or maimed long after the munitions originally fell, making it difficult to know the true toll.
In the 1980s, the Russians made heavy use of cluster bombs during their 10-year invasion of Afghanistan. As a result of decades of war, the Afghan countryside remains one of the most heavily mined countries in the world.
WHAT'S HAPPENING IN UKRAINE?
Russian forces have used cluster bombs in Ukraine on a number of occasions, according to Ukrainian government leaders, observers and humanitarian groups. And human rights groups have said Ukraine has also used them.
During the early days of the war, there were repeated instances of Russian cluster bombs cited by groups such as Human Rights Watch, including when they hit near a preschool in the northeastern city of Okhtyrka. The open-source intelligence group Bellingcat said its researchers found cluster munitions in that strike as well as multiple cluster attacks in Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, also in the northeast. More recently, in March, a Russian missile and drone barrage hit a number of urban areas, including a sustained bombardment in Bakhmut, in the eastern Donetsk region. Just west of there, shelling and missile strikes hit the Ukrainian-held city of Kostiantynivka and AP journalists in the city saw at least four injured people taken to a local hospital. Police said Russian forces attacked the town with S-300 missiles and cluster munitions. Just a month later, Donetsk Gov. Pavlo Kyrylenko accused Russian forces of attacking a town with cluster munitions, wounding one person. An AP and Frontline database called War Crimes Watch Ukraine has cataloged how Russia has used cluster bombs.

West clashes with Russia, Iran at UN over Tehran's uranium, drones for Russia
Associated Press/July 7, 2023
The United States and its Western allies have clashed with Russia and Iran at the U.N. Security Council over Tehran's advancing uranium enrichment and its reported supply of combat drones to Moscow being used to attack Ukraine. The sharp exchanges came at the council's semi-annual meeting on implementation of its resolution endorsing the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and six major countries known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which the U.S. under then-President Donald Trump left in 2018. At the start of the meeting, Russia's U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia accused Britain, which hold the council presidency, of seeking to hold "an openly politicized show" by inviting Ukraine to take part in the meeting when it is not part of the JCPOA. He demanded a procedural vote on its participation. U.S. deputy ambassador Robert Wood countered, accusing both Iran and Russia of participating in the transfer of drones used in Ukraine without prior Security Council approval in violation of the 2015 resolution. "This is a matter of life or death for the Ukrainian people," Wood said. "It would be unconscionable to deny Ukraine the opportunity to speak at this meeting when it is experiencing the devastating effects of Iran's violation of resolution 2231 firsthand." Britain's U.N. Ambassador Barbara Woodward, who was chairing the council meeting, then called for a vote on whether Ukraine could participate. Twelve members voted "yes," while China and Russia voted "no" and Mozambique abstained. The United States, Britain, France and Ukraine have urged U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to send investigators to Ukraine to examine debris from drones used in Russia's attacks, insisting that resolution 2231 gives him a mandate to open an investigation.
Russia insists he has no such authority and Nebenzia warned the U.N. Secretariat against taking any such action. Iran's U.N. Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani added that any U.N. findings "based on such illegal activities is null and void." U.N. political chief Rosemary DiCarlo said in her briefing to the council that France, Germany, Ukraine, the U.K. and U.S. had written letters concerning alleged transfers of drones from Iran to Russia and had provided photographs and their analyses of the recovered drones. "The Secretariat continues to examine the available information," DiCarlo said, giving no indication of when or if a U.N. investigation would take place. Ukraine's U.N. Ambassador Sergiy Kyslytsya told the council that more than 1,000 drone launches over Ukraine had been recorded and that analysis by Ukrainian and international experts confirmed their Iranian origin. Russia's Nebenzia accused Ukraine and the West of fomenting misinformation and dismissed the evidence as comical. France, Germany and the UK, which are parties to the JCPOA, said in a joint statement that Iran has also been in violation of its nuclear commitments under the 2015 deal for four years. They pointed to the International Atomic Energy Agency's reports that Iran's total stockpiles of enriched uranium are now 21 times the amount permitted under the 2015 nuclear deal — and the IAEA's detection in January of uranium particles enriched to 83.7%, which is almost at weapons-grade levels of 90%. Any stockpile of uranium at that level could be quickly used to produce an atomic bomb if Iran chooses.
The 2015 nuclear deal limited Tehran's uranium stockpile to 300 kilograms (661 pounds) and enrichment to 3.67% — enough to fuel a nuclear power plant. But following the U.S. withdrawal, Tehran escalated its nuclear program and has been producing uranium enriched to 60% purity — a level for which nonproliferation experts already say Tehran has no civilian use. Iran informed the IAEA that "unintended fluctuations" in enrichment levels may have occurred accounting for the particles enriched to 83.7%, and Iravani, the Iranian ambassador, and Russia's Nebenzia both said the issue has been resolved. France, Germany and the UK said Iran also "continues to develop and improve ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons," pointing to a May 25 test of a missile they said is capable of delivering a warhead to a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles). U.S. ambassador Wood said "Iran's ballistic missile activity – especially in light of Tehran's nuclear ambitions and its threatening rhetoric – is an enduring threat to regional and international peace and security." Iravani countered that "Iran is fully determined to vigorously pursue its peaceful nuclear activities including enrichment."
Negotiations on the U.S. rejoining the deal and Iran returning to its commitments broke down last August. European Union Ambassador Olof Skoog told the council the EU compromise text is still on the table "as a potential point of departure for any renewed effort to bring the JCPOA back on track." Iravani said: "We are still prepared for the resumption of negotiations should the other side be ready to do the same."

Wagner armed rebellion underscores erosion of Russian legal system
Associated Press/July 7, 2023
Russia's rebellious mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin walked free from prosecution for his June 24 armed mutiny, and it's still unclear if anyone will face any charges in the aborted uprising against military leaders or for the deaths of the soldiers killed in it. Instead, a campaign is underway to portray the founder of the Wagner Group military contractor as driven by greed, with only hints of an investigation into whether he mishandled any of the billions of dollars in state funds. Until last week, the Kremlin has never admitted to funding the company, with private mercenary groups technically illegal in Russia. But President Vladimir Putin revealed the state paid Wagner almost $1 billion in just one year, while Prigozhin's other company earned about the same from government contracts. Putin wondered aloud whether any of it was stolen. The developments around Prigozhin, who remains unpunished despite Putin's labeling of his revolt as treason, underscored what St. Petersburg municipal council member Nikita Yuferev called the "gradual erosion of the legal system" in Russia. Andrei Kolesnikov, senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, writing about the mutiny in a column, concluded: "The fabric of the state is disintegrating." After Putin indicated the government would probe financial irregularities by Prigozhin's companies, state TV picked up that cue. Commentator Dmitry Kiselyov said Wagner and another company owned by Prigozhin earned over 1.7 trillion rubles ($18.7 billion) through government contracts. Russian business daily Vedomosti cited a source close to the Defense Ministry as saying the earnings occurred between 2014 and 2023, years when both Prigozhin and Russian officials denied any ties to Wagner or even its existence.
"Big money made Prigozhin's head spin," Kiselyov said Sunday, saying the private army's battlefield successes gave the mercenary boss "a feeling of impunity." One possible reason for Prigozhin's mutiny, he said, was the Defense Ministry's refusal to extend a multibillion-dollar contract with his legal catering company, Concord, to supply food to the army. According to Kiselyov, Wagner earned 858 billion rubles from government contracts, while Concord earned another 845 billion. Those numbers were 10 times higher than what Putin gave last week. Also unclear is whether Prigozhin will move to Belarus, Moscow's closest ally, under a deal with the Kremlin to end the rebellion. Belarus' authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko said Thursday that Prigozhin was in Russia. The Kremlin refused comment.
Russian media on Wednesday — including popular state TV channel Russia 1 — showed video of searches of Prigozhin's St. Petersburg offices and an opulent mansion he purportedly owned, complete with helipad and indoor swimming pool. They also showed a van with boxes of cash, as well as gold bars, wigs and weapons in the estate. Russia 1 programs also alleged Prigozhin's adult children amassed significant wealth through him and said the searches were a part of an ongoing investigation, contrasting his lifestyle to his anti-elite image."So it turns out, Yevgeny Prigozhin didn't have enough and wanted more?" an anchor mused.
The goal of these revelations is "to smear the person, show he is an oligarch," said Ilya Shumanov, Russia director for Transparency International, noting Prigozhin often made crude and plain-spoken attacks on the military leadership. "And here they say that he's a billionaire, and all this (money) isn't his, it's from the (state) budget, and he was sitting on it, and there would have been no private military company with the Defense Ministry," Shumanov told The Associated Press. The revelations raised questions of how the government could fund Wagner at all, given that laws prohibit mercenary activities, including funding and training private troops, that put the company in a legal gray area. Until the rebellion, Putin always denied any link between the state and Prigozhin's mercenaries. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said as recently as 2020 that "there is no such thing as a private military company in Russian law," and that he wasn't aware of one. By then, however, Wagner had sent its soldiers-for-hire to Syria and African countries as Russia expanded its global influence. By Prigozhin's own admission, his forces also operated in eastern Ukraine to support a separatist uprising and later fought there after the 2022 invasion. Asked Monday about the legality of state funding for Wagner, Peskov refused comment. Shumanov told AP that Wagner was likely funded either with cash through shell companies, or through government contracts via Prigozhin's other entities. How much is impossible to know, he noted, but added it was clear Putin's remarks "gave a green light" to investigate the Wagner chief's finances."I'd wait several weeks, and I think there will definitely be a reaction from the security forces in terms of Prigozhin and his economic activities," he said.
The Kremlin's message is that "we are dealing with a thief, a corrupt person, a thief and an oligarch, who went too far and stole money from the budget," Shumanov said: "This is a very clear explanation, and no one needs to be sacrificed except for Prigozhin."Besides the finances, there is the matter of whether anyone will face prosecution for the deaths of the Russian troops who died at the hands of Prigozhin's fighters. Russian media reported about 15 military troops were killed during the rebellion as thousands of his soldiers seized a military headquarters in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, then headed for Moscow, shooting down military helicopters and other aircraft on what Prigozhin called his "march of justice." At a June 27 Kremlin ceremony, Putin held a minute of silence to honor the dead, although he didn't say how many were killed. A deal struck with Prigozhin to end the uprising stipulated that the Federal Security Service, or FSB, would drop charges against him and his fighters of mounting a rebellion. That agreement went against Putin's vow in a nationally televised address during the uprising to punish those behind it. Instead, the Kremlin said Prigozhin agreed to end the mutiny and go to Belarus — a settlement that didn't sit well with some. Yuferev, the St. Petersburg municipal council member, filed a request with the Prosecutor General's Office and the FSB, asking who would be punished for the rebellion. Thousands of people "rolling toward Moscow on tanks shoot down aircraft, kill 15 troops. … The president speaks, says: 'I will punish all of you, you are mutineers,' the FSB launches a case -– and then nothing," he added.
He said authorities must respond in 30 days, and while he doesn't expect a substantive reply, he at least hopes to draw attention to this "erosion of the legal system of a state." "It is very interesting what they will write there, how they will justify people committing an armed rebellion," Yuferev said. Whether other charges will be filed is unclear. Prominent lawyer Ivan Pavlov told AP that mounting an armed rebellion is only one charge, and that Prigozhin may face others -– especially since deaths occurred — but so far, "no one is talking about it."Another topic drawing official silence is how the FSB — the successor agency to the feared KGB — failed to prevent the uprising, even though it routinely boasts of averting terrorist attacks, sabotage plots and other major crimes. Russian security experts Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan said the FSB's Rostov department "barricaded itself in its city headquarters," while its military counterintelligence operatives assigned to Wagner "did nothing."
After Prigozhin announced his intentions June 23 to act against Russia's defense minister, the FSB issued a statement urging Wagner fighters not to follow the rogue commander and for the troops "to detain him." Soldatov and Borogan wrote in a recent article that such a call for the mercenaries to take that action was odd, since only law enforcement agencies and security services like the FSB have the power to detain people. Mark Galeotti of University College, London, an analyst on Russian security affairs, said the rebellion tested previous assumptions that Putin could count on his security forces. "Now, the first time there's a real challenge we actually see, security forces are willing to hang back and wait and see what happens," he told AP. So far, there has been no negative impact on the FSB, which Galeotti called "Putin's favored institution," having been a former member. Asked by AP during a conference call with reporters Monday why the FSB failed to stop the mutiny, Kremlin spokesman Peskov refused comment, except to say that such services "perform their functions, they do it properly."He also noted Putin last week had praised soldiers, law enforcement and security officers and "expressed his gratitude" to them.

Large objects seen on roof of Ukraine nuclear reactor increase fears of Russia attack
James Kilner/The Telegraph/July 7, 2023
Five large objects have been photographed on the roof of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, increasing fears that Russia may be preparing to blow it up. Satellite images of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, taken by San Francisco-based Planet Labs on 5th July, showed that packages had been placed on the roof of Reactor No. 4. None of the objects can be identified but this week, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia was planning on blowing up the plant and then blaming it on Ukraine. “Our intelligence says that the Russian military has placed objects resembling explosives on the roof of several power units of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant,” he said on Tuesday. Russian forces have controlled the nuclear power plant since the first few days of the war. It is located on the southern bank of the Dnipro River which now forms the front line.
Last week it was reported that Russian forces had ordered staff to leave the plant. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s nuclear watchdog, has been allowed to inspect parts of the plant but its access has been limited. It has now demanded improved access to the sites, and in particular to the roofs of the reactors. “The IAEA experts have requested additional access that is necessary to confirm the absence of mines or explosives,” it said in a statement this week. “In particular, access to the rooftops of reactor units 3 and 4 is essential.”Officials at Rosenergoatom, the Russian nuclear agency, have denied the accusations. They say that Ukrainian forces are planning an attack on the nuclear power plant. Both sides have previously accused each other of planning so-called “false flag” atrocities for propaganda purposes. In May, they accused each other of blowing up the Kakhovka Dam and flooding downstream towns and cities. Although the Soviet-built Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is the biggest in Europe, experts have downplayed the fallout of an explosion. “Its six reactors have been shut down for over 10 months and are no longer making enough heat to cause a prompt radiological release,” the American Nuclear Society said this week. Broaden your horizons with award-winning British journalism. Try The Telegraph free for 1 month, then enjoy 1 year for just $9 with our US-exclusive offer.

Wagner Troops Haven’t Showed Up at Camp Offered by Belarus, Official Says
Dan Ladden-Hall/The Daily Beast./July 7, 2023
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko offered a disused military camp to Wagner fighters as part of a deal which ended the group’s armed rebellion against Russian military leaders last month. So far, not one mercenary has so much as been to look at the camp, an official said. The Soviet-era site near Tsel, about 55 miles southeast of Minsk, was displayed by the Belarusian military to a group of international reporters on Friday. Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin and his recruits who did not want to join up with the Russian Defense Ministry were supposed to move to Belarus after their mutiny unraveled—but the agreement has apparently gone awry. When asked if anyone from Wagner had even visited the camp, an adviser to the Belarusian defense minister confirmed that they hadn’t. “They have not come, they have not looked,” Leonid Kasinsky told reporters, according to Reuters. “When the Wagner Group makes a final decision on whether to deploy to Belarus or not, they will see where and how to deploy,” Maj. Gen. Kasinsky added, the Associated Press reports. On Thursday, Lukashenko said that, contrary to the agreement, Prigozhin isn’t even in Belarus. Instead, he said the warlord was back home in St. Petersburg, with Russian media reporting sightings of Prigozhin at his offices in the city. “Where is he this morning? Maybe he went to Moscow,” Lukashenko said. He added that Wagner’s troops were located in “their own” permanent camps, seemingly referring to installations in eastern Ukraine.
Lukashenko also said he planned to discuss the matter further with Russian President Vladimir Putin. On Friday, Putin’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed questions concerning Prigozhin’s whereabouts and declined to comment about whether his apparent presence in Russia would break the terms of the deal. On June 23, Prigozhin announced that his men would move toward Moscow after months of publicly criticizing Russia’s military commanders for their handling of the war in Ukraine. “This is not a military coup,” Prigozhin said at the time. “It is a march for justice.” The following day, he and his troops seized Russia’s military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, about 125 miles from the Russian capital. Amid the crisis, Putin delivered an emergency TV broadcast denouncing the “traitors” and promising “action will be taken” in response. Hours later, Lukashenko confirmed he’d brokered a deal between Putin and Prigozhin to bring the rebellion to an end, saying Wagner’s forces would return to Ukraine and Prigozhin would go to Belarus. The fragile stability between the mercenary force and the Kremlin has teetered ever since, with Russian state television on Wednesday broadcasting images purportedly taken during raids of Prigozhin’s offices and one of his “palaces.” The footage showed bundles of cash, gold bars, and a collection of sledgehammers in an apparent effort to expose the hypocrisy of his corruption claims against the Russian armed forces.

An aerial view of the black smoke and flames at a market in Omdurman
Reuters/Fri, July 7, 2023
The conflict between military factions in Sudan has caused a surge in cases of rape and the abduction of women and girls, some as young as 12, aid agencies and officials said. Teenage girls are being sexually assaulted and raped by armed combatants in "alarming numbers", Save the Children said in a statement on Friday, while the United Nations reported a "marked increase" in gender-based violence. The war that erupted on April 15 pits Sudan's army against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), who fell out over plans for a political transition towards civilian rule. Fighting has been concentrated in the capital Khartoum and the western region of Darfur. While dozens of cases of rape resulting from the conflict have been verified, the Sudanese government's Combating Violence against Women (CVAW) unit estimates that figure may represent just 2% of the total. "We know that the official numbers are only the tip of the iceberg. Children as young as 12 are being targeted for their gender, for their ethnicity, for their vulnerability," Save the Children's Sudan director Arif Noor said in a statement. Some parents were marrying off their daughters at a young age to try to protect them from further abuse, he said. There have also been reports of girls being held for days while being sexually assaulted, and gang rapes of women and girls. "Health care providers, social workers, counsellors and community-based protection networks inside Sudan have all warned of a marked increase in reports of gender-based violence as hostilities continue across the country," United Nations agencies said in a joint statement this week. "Reporting violations and getting support is also made difficult, if not impossible, by the lack of electricity and connectivity, as well as lack of humanitarian access due to the volatile security situation."
CVAW also reported an escalation in cases of abduction of women and girls, especially in Khartoum, citing several recent cases for which it said RSF fighters were responsible. The RSF has not directly addressed accusations of assault and sexual violence by its fighters, but has said that those who commit abuses will be held to account. The U.N. estimates 4.2 million people are at risk of gender-based violence, up from 3 million before the conflict started in mid-April. Sudan has a population of 49 million. The U.N. said the risk was especially high when women and girls were on the move, seeking to reach safe locations. More than 2.9 million people have been uprooted by Sudan's conflict, including nearly 700,000 who have fled into neighbouring countries. Some women are arriving pregnant as a result of rape, according to the U.N. refugee agency.

Turkey sees $10 bln in Gulf investments after upcoming Erdogan visit -sources
ANKARA, July 7 (Reuters)/Fri, July 7, 2023
Turkey expects Gulf countries to make direct investments of about $10 billion initially in domestic assets as part of President Tayyip Erdogan's trip to the region in two weeks, according to two senior Turkish officials. Erdogan is scheduled to visit leaders in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates on July 17-19, in part to drum up foreign funding that would boost Turkey's strained economy after his re-election in May. The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity given the talks are private and deals are not yet finalised, said overall investments of up to $30 billion are expected over a longer period in Turkey's energy, infrastructure and defence sectors. Direct investments worth about $10 billion "should come within a short time and this is crucial," said one of the officials. "Expectations are high for the Gulf visit. Some important agreements will be signed." Erdogan's office did not immediately comment on the matter. Officials in Riyadh, Doha and Abu Dhabi did not immediately comment either. Since 2021, when Ankara launched a diplomatic effort to repair ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, investments and funding from the Gulf have helped relieve pressure on Turkey's economy and hard currency buffer. Last month, Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek traveled to the UAE to discuss "economic cooperation opportunities" with counterparts, and they met President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, Ankara said. Reuters reported after the visit that Turkey came away expecting direct investments soon. Erdogan appointed Yilmaz and Simsek after the elections in part to execute a U-turn after years of unorthodox economic policy that sent inflation soaring and net foreign reserves to a record low in May. As part of the pivot, the central bank hiked rates by 650 basis points last month. The official said the expected investments from Gulf states would "show confidence in the Turkish economy since it would be direct investments, which is extremely important." (Writing by Jonathan Spicer Editing by Ros Russell)

Watchdog urges Tunisia to stop expelling migrants to desert
Agence France Presse/July 07, 2023
Human Rights Watch on Friday urged Tunisia to put an end to what it called the "collective expulsions" of Black African migrants to a desert area near the Libyan border. Hundreds of migrants from sub-Saharan Africa have been left stranded in dire conditions in the south of Tunisia since being driven out of the port city of Sfax in the past week. It comes against a backdrop of violence after the funeral of a 41-year-old Tunisian man who was stabbed to death in Sfax on Monday, in a brawl between Tunisians and migrants. Sfax, the North African country's second-largest city, is a departure point for many hoping to reach Europe by sea, often the Italian island of Lampedusa about 130 kilometers away. "Tunisian security forces have collectively expelled several hundred Black African migrants and asylum seekers, including children and pregnant women, since July 2, to a remote, militarized buffer zone at the Tunisia-Libya border," HRW said. "Many reported violence by authorities during arrest or expulsion," the New York-based watchdog said in a statement. HRW's Lauren Seibert urged Tunisia's government to "halt collective expulsions and urgently enable humanitarian access to the African migrants and asylum seekers already expelled to a dangerous area". The group said migrants it interviewed alleged "several people died or were killed at the border area" between Sunday and Wednesday, "some shot and others beaten" by Tunisian security forces. "They also said that Libyan men carrying machetes or other weapons had robbed some people and raped several women," HRW reported, adding it was unable to independently confirm the accounts. HRW called on the government in Tunis to "investigate and hold to account security forces implicated in abuses". "African migrants and asylum seekers, including children, are desperate to get out of the dangerous border zone and find food, medical care, and safety," Seibert said. "There is no time to waste." Tunisia has seen a rise in racially motivated attacks after President Kais Saied in February accused "hordes" of undocumented migrants of bringing violence and alleging a "criminal plot" to change the country's demographic make-up.

Russian jets harass US drone aircraft over Syria for the 2nd time in 24 hours
Associated Press/July 07, 2023
Russian fighter jets flew dangerously close to several U.S. drone aircraft over Syria again Thursday, setting off flares and forcing the MQ-9 Reapers to take evasive maneuvers, the Air Force said. It was the second time in 24 hours that Russia has harassed U.S. drones there. "We urge Russian forces in Syria to cease this reckless behavior and adhere to the standards of behavior expected of a professional air force so we can resume our focus on the enduring defeat of ISIS," Lt. Gen. Alex Grynkewich, head of U.S. Air Forces Central Command, said in a statement. Col. Michael Andrews, Air Forces Central Command spokesman, said "the Russian harassment, including close fly-bys, by one SU-34 and one SU-35 and deploying flares directly into the MQ-9, lasted almost an hour. So it wasn't a quick fly-by, but much more of a sustained and unprofessional interaction."U.S. Air Forces Central released videos of the two separate incidents that took place Wednesday and Thursday. In the first incident, which took place about 10:40 a.m. local time Wednesday in Northwest Syria, Russian SU-35 fighters closed in on a Reaper, and one of the Russian pilots moved their aircraft in front of a drone and engaged the SU-35's afterburner, which greatly increases its speed and air pressure. The jet blast from the afterburner can potentially damage the Reaper's electronics, and Grynkewich said it reduced the drone operator's ability to safely operate the aircraft. Later a number of the so-called parachute flares moved into the drone's flight path. The flares are attached to parachutes. In the second incident, which took place over Northwest Syria around 9:30 a.m. Thursday local time, "Russian aircraft dropped flares in front of the drones and flew dangerously close, endangering the safety of all aircraft involved," Grynkewich said. The drones were not armed with weapons and are commonly used for reconnaissance missions. Army Gen. Erik Kurilla, head of U.S. Central Command, said in a statement that Russia's violation of ongoing efforts to clear the airspace over Syria "increases the risk of escalation or miscalculation."About 900 U.S. forces are deployed to Syria to work with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces battling the Islamic State militants there. No other details about the drone operation were provided.

Russia's war in Ukraine reaches 500-day mark
Associated Press/July 07, 2023
Russia's war in Ukraine is set to reach the 500-day mark this weekend, a grim milestone for a conflict that rages with no end in sight. While the fighting has fallen largely into a stalemate — there has been no significant movement in battle lines control in months — the war continues to take a heavy toll on the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of people. And the stakes are only getting higher. A month ago, a major dam that Russia controls in southern Ukraine collapsed, flooding an entire region with a toxic torrent that left death and destruction in its wake as well as long-term environmental consequences.
Fears of a nuclear disaster have increased, particularly this week after Ukraine and Russia accused each other of planning to attack one of the world's largest atomic power plants. Meanwhile, dozens of civilians in Ukraine have been killed by sporadic missiles launched by Russia, including many who were killed and wounded while dining in a pizza restaurant in the east, and 10 who were killed as they slept on Thursday when their apartment building was struck in the west. An attempted mutiny by a Russian mercenary chief brought a taste of the war's chaos to Moscow and exposed cracks in Russia's military leadership, further raising the stakes. Saturday marks 500 days since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. Peace talks are a long way off as both sides look to improve their hand, with Ukrainians trying to recapture as much territory as they can and Russia intent on holding it. This selection of photographs shows some of the most crucial moments of the war.

France's small towns reeling from rioting, countryside affected too
Associated Press/July 07, 2023
After a pleasant evening of wine-tasting — joyfully billed "Grapes and Friends!" — with a hundred or so people and oysters, charcuteries and cheeses, the mayor of the picturesque French town of Quissac was on his way home. Then his phone rang: Urban unrest that was engulfing France after the deadly police shooting of a teenager on Paris' outskirts, hundreds of kilometers and a world away to the north, had careened into Quissac's tranquility, too. In a quick hit-and-run, a small group of people — seemingly no more than four, the mayor says — bombarded the local gendarmes' barracks on Quai de la Gare road with powerful fireworks, denting its metal shutters and setting fire to a cypress tree. In the grander scheme of things, it wasn't much compared to orgies of destruction, arson, looting and rioting unleashed on multitudes of other communities across France in six nights of mayhem. Still, for the town of 3,300 people in the Gard region of southern France, it was a first.Quissac's unsettling experience last Friday night — and those of other out-of-the-way towns and villages also hit by unrest to varying degrees — set France's latest nationwide spasm of rioting apart from previous cycles of violence that have flared periodically in every decade since the 1980s. Although typically referred to in France as "les violences urbaines" — urban violence — the unrest this time was no longer contained to blue-collar towns and cities' disadvantaged housing projects, places where anger at social and racial inequalities has festered.
Carried in part on the winds of social networks that have narrowed gaps between France's urban centers and its vast rural spaces, unrest also reached outward to touch places that escaped a similar nationwide wave of rioting in 2005.
IN SMALL TOWNS, A NAGGING QUESTION
Mayors of small towns where vehicles were torched, fires lit and police attacked are scratching their heads, trying to figure out: Why them? Why now? Why are France's big-city problems, which previously seemed far away, sinking roots into their peace and quiet, too?
"Why these incidents in a little town like ours?" asks the mayor of L'Aigle in Normandy, where fires were lit, cars torched and police chased around after small groups of suspects. "In the press and even on the TV news, it was mainly Paris and its suburbs, Lyon and Marseille that were talked about. But when you look, there were also incidents in a certain number of small communities," the mayor, Philippe Van-Hoorne, says. "Unfortunately, the increase of uncivil behavior, of violence, is developing even in modest towns like ours ... It's very hard to solve." By the government's count, more than 500 cities, towns and villages were affected this time after the police shooting of Nahel Merzouk in the Paris suburb of Nanterre on June 27. The French-born 17-year-old of north African descent was stopped by two officers on motorbikes who subsequently told investigators that he'd been driving dangerously in a bright yellow Mercedes. He died from a single shot through his left arm and chest. One officer is being held on a preliminary charge of voluntary homicide. From Nanterre, violent protests spread with astounding speed and intensity. They quickly morphed into generalized mayhem that was relayed and celebrated on social networks. Much of the violence was concentrated in cities, large towns and their disadvantaged housing projects, leaving France once again grappling with its decades-old failure to better integrate generations of immigrants and their France-born children who complain of systemic discrimination. But the staggering nationwide tallies of destruction — more than 6,000 vehicles and 12,400 trash bins set ablaze, more than 1,100 buildings attacked — weren't limited to previously recognized hotspots. This time, smaller communities were impacted, too. In Quissac, investigators are searching for 4 people who scattered on foot after the firework attack, says the mayor, Serge Cathala. That incident aside, the only minor troubles Cathala can remember from his 28 years as an elected official are a few "very rare" trash fires and occasional daubs of graffiti. Quissac was spared by the longer nationwide rioting in 2005 that also started in Paris' outskirts. "There's never really been acts of violence like this," the mayor says. "Now it's affecting the countryside." Like other officials, including French President Emmanuel Macron, he suspects that videos of unrest on social networks encouraged copycat violence."It's one-upmanship," Cathala says. "A way of showing off."
AN AP TALLY SHOWS TOWNS IMPACTED NATIONWIDE
The Associated Press compiled a list of cities, towns and villages where officials reported unrest. It ended up with 297 names. Every letter of the alphabet was represented with the exceptions of U, X and Z.
They ranged from the commuter town of Achères — on a bend of the River Seine west of Paris that reported fires and destruction that forced the closure its town hall — to Yutz, near France's eastern borders with Germany and Luxembourg. There, a McDonald's was torched. Videos of the blaze were shared on social networks, hash-tagged Yutz and riots. In Rugles, a Normandy village of 2,200, rockets were fired outside the Intermarché supermarket and fires lit. In Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône in the south, where the River Rhône empties into the Mediterranean, a school minibus and about 30 trash bins were set ablaze, the town hall was graffitied and a gas bottle was used to batter the window of a clothing store on Avenue du Port, the mayor's office says. Metz, in the east, lost a library to flames. Part of a sports complex earmarked for use as a training venue for the 2024 Paris Olympic Games was set ablaze in Macon, in Burgundy. A social center under construction in Sens, also in Burgundy, was burnt down. Not all larger towns were hit hard. Colmar in the wine-making Alsace region, known for its pretty timber-framed houses and canals, saw car fires and a bank was "a little bit touched," says Mayor Eric Straumann. Still, even that limited unrest was "quite paradoxical," given Colmar's low unemployment rate of about 5%, he says. In L'Aigle, three cars were torched, 18 fires lit and five store windows attacked, says its mayor, Van-Hoorne. He says police made seven arrests — five of them minors — and that some filmed their exploits on their mobile phones. Just another French town touched by seismic events of a national scale, and another indication that in the world of the 21st century, geography isn't always the insulating force it once was. "When you analyze it all on a nationwide scale," Van-Hoorne says, "it's true that it raises questions."

Canada’s secret service is fighting a hidden civil war
Brian Lee Crowley/The Telegraph/July 07, 2023
The Canada of our allies’ imagination is a peaceable land of winter, hockey and exquisite politeness. The winter and the hockey haven’t changed. But peaceable and polite? Not since the civil war broke out. This civil war doesn’t pit Quebec nationalists against English Canada, but centres instead on China. The two sides are a political elite that yearns for the days when China was an economic opportunity, and a national security community aware of Beijing’s ambition to deindustrialize the West economically and neuter it geostrategically. For decades Canada’s national security establishment has sounded the alarm about foreign authoritarian interference. Their dire warnings fell on the deaf ears of a political class bedazzled by China’s potential to counterbalance Canada’s dependence on American markets. Canada’s spies loyally but fruitlessly reported their disquieting findings, warning behind closed doors of Chinese infiltration of Canadian institutions, including our political parties and elections. Then China abducted and detained two Canadians, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor. Beijing’s action was in retaliation for Canada’s legal detention of Chinese telecom giant Huawei’s CFO in response to an extradition request from the United States. The drama of the “Two Michaels” was a daily preoccupation of Canadians for over 1000 days until their 2021 release in an American-brokered deal. The government, however, failed to see how the plight of the two Michaels transformed Canadians’ attitudes toward China. The public began to share the intelligence community’s anxieties about China’s malevolence. Disgusted with the government’s attempted return to the pre-Michaels status quo, the intelligence community concluded that if the politicians were going to ignore their urgent warnings, a change of tactics was in order. An unprecedented series of leaks appeared in the media, upending Canadian politics and setting spies and politicians at each other’s throats. The leaks reveal a China hell-bent on suborning Canadian institutions. The allegations include: charges of Chinese interference in elections at every level (federal, provincial and municipal), the existence of Chinese police stations operating with impunity on Canadian soil, the intimidation of Canadians and permanent residents of Chinese origin, and threats to the families of prominent Canadian politicians.
The government response was to fire back at the intelligence services, finding the charges of Chinese interference without merit, racist, or claiming the intelligence never reached the politicians. The intelligence community was pilloried for illegal leaks.
But every attack by the government was met with more revelations. For example Michael Chong, a prominent Conservative parliamentarian, learned that Canada’s spooks knew China was bearing down on Chong’s family in Hong Kong to punish him for “anti-China” activities. He criticized the government for not informing him. Mr Trudeau denied cabinet was informed about this by the Canadian Security and Intelligence Service (CSIS). Later, the prime minister’s national security advisor revealed the Prime Minister’s Office had been repeatedly briefed on the matter.
A former senior CSIS official testified that the behavior of the nation’s political leadership on China borders on the treasonous and warrants jail time. Parliament, where the government does not command a majority, voted for an independent formal inquiry into Chinese interference. Mr Trudeau instead appointed a superannuated apologist for China and friend of the Trudeau family, David Johnston, to study the matter. Predictably he found it was all misunderstandings and media hype and recommended against an inquiry, finding that further hearings under his leadership would be sufficient. He too called for “malicious” leakers be rooted out. That caused another former CSIS official to say that Mr Johnston’s comments on Canadian intelligence services were unfair and insulting and he owed Canada’s spies an apology. Parliament, in a non-binding motion, voted for Mr. Johnston to step down. He initially refused, backed by Mr Trudeau, but later resigned after weeks of continued pressure from parliament. The civil war is now entrenched. Every denial and counter-attack by the political class is met with new leaks from the spooks. There is more to come as Canada’s allies, including the United States, have deepening doubts about Canada’s trustworthiness, including on intelligence sharing on China. This conflict can only end in one of two ways. Either the government capitulates and calls a proper independent inquiry under a credible non-political figure or the prime minister succeeds in digging out the entrenched leakers, likely gutting the intelligence services in the process. The smart money is on the leakers who, unlike the government, have public opinion on their side.

Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 07-08/2023
Question: “What are some modern forms of idolatry?”
GotQuestions.org?/July 7, 2023
Answer: All the various forms of modern idolatry have one thing at their core: self. Most of the world no longer explicitly bows down to idols and images. Instead we worship at the altar of the god of self. This brand of modern idolatry takes various forms.
First, we worship at the altar of materialism which feeds our need to build our egos through the acquisition of more “stuff.” Our homes are filled with all manner of possessions. We build bigger and bigger houses with more closets and storage space in order to house all the things we buy, much of which we haven’t even paid for yet. Most of our stuff has “planned obsolescence” built into it, making it useless in no time, and so we consign it to the garage or other storage space. Then we rush out to buy the newest item, garment or gadget and the whole process starts over. This insatiable desire for more, better, and newer stuff is nothing more than covetousness. The tenth commandment tells us not to fall victim to coveting: "You shall not covet your neighbor’s house. You shall not covet your neighbor’s wife, or his manservant or maidservant, his ox or donkey, or anything that belongs to your neighbor" (Exodus 20:17). God doesn’t just want to rain on our buying sprees. He knows we will never be happy indulging our materialistic desires because it is Satan’s trap to keep our focus on ourselves and not on God.
Second, we worship at the altar of our own pride and ego. This often takes the form of obsession with careers and jobs. Millions of men—and increasingly more women—spend 60-80 hours a week working. Even on the weekends and during vacations, our laptops are humming and our minds are whirling with thoughts of how to make our businesses more successful, how to get that promotion, how to get the next raise, how to close the next deal. In the meantime, our children are starving for attention and love. We fool ourselves into thinking we are doing it for them, to give them a better life. But the truth is we are doing it for ourselves, to increase our self-esteem by appearing more successful in the eyes of the world. This is folly. All our labors and accomplishments will be of no use to us after we die, nor will the admiration of the world, because these things have no eternal value. As King Solomon put it, “For a man may do his work with wisdom, knowledge and skill, and then he must leave all he owns to someone who has not worked for it. This too is meaningless and a great misfortune. What does a man get for all the toil and anxious striving with which he labors under the sun? All his days his work is pain and grief; even at night his mind does not rest. This too is meaningless” (Ecclesiastes 2:21-23).
Third, we idolize mankind through naturalism and the power of science. We cling to the illusion that we are lords of our world and build our self-esteem to godlike proportions. We reject God’s Word and His description of how He created the heavens and the earth, and we accept the nonsense of atheistic evolution and naturalism. We embrace the goddess of environmentalism and fool ourselves into thinking we can preserve the earth indefinitely when God has declared that this current age will have an end: “But the day of the Lord will come like a thief. The heavens will disappear with a roar; the elements will be destroyed by fire, and the earth and everything in it will be laid bare. Since everything will be destroyed in this way, what kind of people ought you to be? You ought to live holy and godly lives as you look forward to the day of God and speed its coming. That day will bring about the destruction of the heavens by fire, and the elements will melt in the heat. But in keeping with his promise we are looking forward to a new heaven and a new earth, the home of righteousness” (2 Peter 3:10–13). As this passage states, our focus should not be on worshiping the environment but on living holy lives as we wait eagerly for the return of our Lord and Savior. He alone deserves worship.
Finally, and perhaps most destructively, we worship at the altar of self-aggrandizement or the fulfillment of the self to the exclusion of all others and their needs and desires. This manifests itself in self-indulgence through alcohol, drugs, and food. Those in affluent countries have unlimited access to alcohol, drugs (prescription drug use is at an all-time high, even among children), and food. Obesity rates in the U.S. have skyrocketed, and childhood diabetes brought on by overeating is epidemic. The self-control we so desperately need is spurned in our insatiable desire to eat, drink, and medicate more and more. We resist any effort to get us to curb our appetites, and we are determined to make ourselves the god of our lives. This has its origin in the Garden of Eden where Satan tempted Eve to eat of the tree with the words “you will be like God” (Genesis 3:5). This has been man’s desire ever since—to be god and, as we have seen, the worship of self is the basis of all modern idolatry.
All idolatry of self has at its core the three lusts found in 1 John 2:16: “For all that is in the world, the lust of the flesh, and the lust of the eyes, and the pride of life, is not of the Father, but is of the world.” If we are to escape modern idolatry, we have to admit that it is rampant and reject it in all its forms. It is not of God, but of Satan, and in it we will never find fulfillment. This is the great lie and the same one Satan has been telling since he first lied to Adam and Eve. Sadly, we are still falling for it. Even more sadly, many churches are propagating it in the preaching of the health, wealth, and prosperity gospel built on the idol of self-esteem. But we will never find happiness focusing on ourselves. Our hearts and minds must be centered on God and on others. This is why when asked what is the greatest commandment, Jesus replied, “Love the Lord your God with all your heart and with all your soul and with all your mind” (Matthew 22:37). When we love the Lord and others with everything that is in us, there will be no room in our hearts for idolatry.

Riots Again in France
Alain Destexhe/Gatestone Institute/July 7, 2023
These responses -- skirting due process at the highest levels of government -- show the fear that the suburbs instill in those in power: the fear of a generalized conflagration, the fear of another death, the fear that control of the situation is slipping away, the fear of the inability to control these uprisings or the root causes that breed them.
Some of these suburbs have long since become lawless zones, or rather zones of "alternative law," where drug kingpins and Muslim imams now rule the roost, and where the police only move in force from time to time. In some neighborhoods, drug dealers have set up physical obstacles that make it difficult for the police to gain access when they decide to intervene by force, when the authorities can pretend that they still control something.
It is necessary to deal with the cause -- excessive and uncontrolled immigration -- both legal (through family reunification and the right of asylum) and illegal. When you are faced with a leak in a boat that is on the verge of sinking, as French society is, you not only have to have to bail out the water, but also plug the breach.
There are "two Frances" facing each other. One is violent, ready to riot at the first opportunity, encouraged by political parties who see it as an electoral reservoir. The other, still in the majority, is dignified and peaceful, outraged by the behavior of these young people of immigrant origin -- but who remain silent and do nothing.
France seems slowly heading for civil war.
Following the killing of a 17-year-old boy, France is once again the scene of riots that reflect the gulf between traditional France and the suburbs -- the result of immigration over the last 40 years. Pictured: A part of the Pablo Picasso College, burnt by rioters, in Saint-Étienne-du-Rouvray, northern France, July 3, 2023. Rioters torched the building on the night of June 30, 2023. (Photo by Lou Benoist/AFP via Getty Images)
Following the killing of a 17-year-old boy, France is once again the scene of riots that reflect the gulf between traditional France and the suburbs -- the result of immigration over the last 40 years.
Nahel Merzouk was killed by police. He was being chased in Nanterre, near Paris, by two policemen on a motorcycle for traffic violations and refusal to stop the car he was driving. After Merzouk was forced to stop the car due to traffic congestion, the policemen approached his car and drew their weapons. Merzouk then drove off, at which point one of the policemen fired his weapon at the car, fatally wounding Merzouk. If Merzouk had followed the orders of the police, he would not have died.
In 2021, there were 27,809 refusals to obey police orders in France -- one every twenty minutes or so. At just 17 years of age, Merzouk already had 15 entries in his criminal record, for rebellion against police officers, use of falsely-numbered car plates (he was driving a Mercedes A-class with Polish plates that day), driving without insurance, the use and sale of narcotics, and more.
His death nevertheless triggered a wave of rioting across France, not just in the Paris suburb of Nanterre, where the events took place. Images show war scenes with Molotov cocktails, fireworks, and burning garbage dumpsters, cars and buildings. Stores were looted, and 269 police stations were attacked. School and cultural centers were targeted and in some instances, ransacked and destroyed. Even Fresnes Prison, the country's second-largest, was attacked. 1,105 buildings were set on fire and 808 police officers injured.
These events are in more the tradition of 1789, the start of the French Revolution.
The young people who are shooting at the police, smashing and looting say they are angry about Merzouk's death, but it is hard to see how this violence and looting, often against property that directly benefits the inhabitants of these neighborhoods -- schools, bus shelters and streetcars -- can "appease their anger" or lead to anything positive.
The policeman who shot Merzouk has been charged with voluntary manslaughter. Disregarding the presumption of innocence, and thereby damning the policeman, President Emmanuel Macron, who is supposed to be the guardian of institutions, described the shooting as "inexplicable and inexcusable", even while the investigation was still in its early stages. The President of the National Assembly called for a minute of silence to observe Merzouk's death.
These responses -- skirting due process at the highest levels of government -- show the fear that the suburbs instill in those in power: the fear of a generalized conflagration, the fear of another death, the fear that control of the situation is slipping away, the fear of the inability to control these uprisings or the root causes that breed them.
Some of these suburbs have long since become lawless zones, or rather zones of "alternative law," where drug kingpins and Muslim imams now rule the roost, and where the police only move in force from time to time. In some neighborhoods, drug dealers have set up physical obstacles that make it difficult for the police to gain access when they decide to intervene by force, when the authorities can pretend that they still control something.
A few months ago, France was moved by the murder of Lola, aged 11, by an Algerian woman who had been ordered to leave the country. This murder by a woman who should not have been in France, but whom, as in the majority of similar cases (only 16% of removal orders are enforced) in which the government refused to deport someone, moved the whole of France, but the French people remained calm. They did not demonstrate, they did not destroy anything, there was no minute's silence in the National Assembly and Macron did not consider the facts "inexplicable and inexcusable".
The difference between the two situations? Lola was a little white girl killed by an illegal immigrant in France. The left did not protest. Right-wing parties were outraged and saw the tragedy as a sign that the state had given up on uncontrolled immigration.
In Nanterre, the victim was a youth of immigrant origin killed by a white policeman trying to stop him. Despite his delinquent past, young people of immigrant origin in the suburbs see Merzouk as a martyr, the victim of a racist society. The powerful far-left party La France Insoumise ("France Unbowed") is adding to the fire by refusing to call for calm, and seems to hope that this tragedy will be its "George Floyd moment", triggering a street revolution in France in the tradition of 1789.
More fundamentally, this gulf between the two Frances bears witness once again to the failure of immigration policy over the past 40 years, with massive, uncontrolled legal and illegal immigration continuing, resulting in millions of young people who are legally French but who do not feel French and who may even hate France.
The death of Merzouk can in no way justify the riots of recent days. In the short term, holding accountable whoever breaks the law is probably the only solution. There need to be serious, severe sentences for defacing and destroying property and inflicting personal harm. French judges, however, tend to be lax (here, here and here), and find excuses for juvenile delinquents, whom they often see as "victims". In addition, Macron has barely begun to build capacity for the 15,000 additional prison places he promised.
It is necessary to deal with the cause -- excessive and uncontrolled immigration -- both legal (through family reunification and the right of asylum) and illegal. When you are faced with a leak in a boat that is on the verge of sinking, as French society is, you not only have to have to bail out the water, but also plug the breach. Not tackling the immigration issue would serve no purpose: the same causes would produce the same effects.
Macron, however, has always been reluctant to tackle immigration. Let us not forget, he comes from the left and was a minister under Socialist President François Hollande. The Macron government apparently hopes that the situation will calm down, and over the next few months, they will probably try less and less to re-establish order and security in these neighborhoods, as they come increasingly under the dominion of an alternative law. The police, who are subjected to attacks of unprecedented violence, will be even more reluctant to intervene. It is therefore to be feared that nothing will fundamentally change, and that the French taxpayers will pay in vain to rebuild all that has been destroyed... until the next uprising. The rioters have already won and France is more divided than ever.
There are "two Frances" facing each other. One is violent, ready to riot at the first opportunity, encouraged by political parties who see it as an electoral reservoir. The other, still in the majority, is dignified and peaceful, outraged by the behavior of these young people of immigrant origin -- but who remain silent and do nothing.
France seems slowly heading for civil war.
*Alain Destexhe, a columnist and political analyst, is an honorary Senator in Belgium and former Secretary General of Médecins Sans Frontières / Doctors Without Borders.
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The Russian Elite Would Prefer To Let Putin Go His Way – And To Overtake The Country After A Collapse
Dr. Vladislav L. Inozemtsev/Russia | MEMRI Daily Brief No. 499/July 07/2023
The fulminant revolt in Russia is over. As the mutiny, organized by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder and owner of Wagner Group (the world's largest private army created with Russian President Vladimir Putin's blessing and financed by Russian state funds), failed, it's time to assess its causes and consequences for both Russia and the world.
'A Real, Full-Scale Civil War Is Impossible In Today's Russia'
What can one say about the recent revolt?
First, we saw the effects of the Russian state apparatus' destruction caused by Putin's long-time policy of denying responsibility for many crucial actions that he himself orchestrated. As happened during the annexation of Crimea, when Putin claimed that "Russian servicemen were not involved," no one mentioned where the Wagner Group got its tanks and anti-aircraft systems. I have argued many times Russia has turned into a "commercial state."[1] Indeed, the mercenary army is a clear example that Putin's Russia is a corporation rather than a state.
Second, we received powerful proof that a system based only on personal loyalties cannot be effective. It was reported that chiefs of both the army and the different security services, who were specifically chosen because of their "personal loyalty" to the President and served in their positions for more than a decade,[2] disappeared with the first signs of uncertainty and did nothing to confront the mutineers. It is for these reasons that the Wagner group mercenaries were able to freely march for almost 500 miles from the frontline towards Rostov-on-Don, a city with more than one million inhabitants hosting the military headquarters responsible for the entire operation in Ukraine, and from there to Moscow.
Third, and a more important point, the Russian population proved to be totally ambivalent about the unrest and had seemingly no appetite for participating in any quarrels – whether on the side of "revolutionaries" or on that of the "legitimate authorities." Even though many analysts argued that the recent events should be considered a sort of a "miniaturized" civil war,[3] I would greatly disagree with this view. A mutiny of a regiment isn't a civil war unless it starts as part of such a conflict (in this sense, if one turns to Russia's history, the 1921 Kronstadt revolt can be counted as an episode of civil war, while the 1917 Kornilov mutiny cannot). Hence, I would repeat my point: A real, full-scale civil war is impossible in today's Russia,[4] and the country stood much closer to it in both 1991 and 1993 rather than in the recently attempted munity.
It Wasn't A Coup
In addition to everything said above, one should also try to define Prigozhin's démarche. Some observers call what happened a "mutiny," while others use the word "rebellion," or describe it as a "war against the Russian Ministry of Defense." There are also those that call it a "march of justice," as Prigozhin himself did. However, quite often it is labelled a "coup." The Western press often prefers to talk about "a coup that wasn't," or "a breezy coup attempt," or even "a half-baked coup."
Indeed, Wagner's march cannot be called a coup, and not even a coup attempt. Prigozhin never expressed any intention to depose Putin or even to challenge his rule. Prigozhin, whose fighters spent many months storming the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut, looks more like a medieval crusader who tries to get rid of the instructions issued by king's war minister, who was promoted to a marshal position despite never serving in the army but simply because he's a long-time favorite.
Of course, one may argue that Prigozhin's mutiny has damaged the President's standing, or even say that it made visible "more cracks emerging in the Russian façade,"[5] but it wasn't a coup attempt like those in Russia in either 1991 or 1993. This fact is crucial for any speculations concerning its possible consequences.
What can be said is that Prigozhin's démarche created significant difficulties for both Putin and his inner circle. It seems like Putin has become even more suspicious and nervous than ever before. He desperately looks for the most credible person in his team, and may believe that Viktor Zolotov, the commander of the National Guard, is the trustworthy one. For this reason, it was recently announced that the National Guard will soon receive heavy weapons and tanks.[6] Furthermore, it was reported that the highest-ranking Russian officials believe that Putin is vulnerable to other possible insurrections – and this time they might target him rather than his closest aides. Therefore, the trust that might still be present inside the Kremlin has evaporated – but even this doesn't mean Putin's time is over.
'Anyone Who Assumes Power These Days In Russia Would Want To Leave The Kremlin Quite Soon'
Wagner's munity was a unique one that cannot repeat itself. Most of the Russian population does not see Prigozhin as someone belonging to Putin's clan. Even though Prigozhin became a billionaire thanks to his corrupt connections to the Kremlin, he was treated as someone to use to oppose the "fat rats," rather than a member of Putin's inner circle. After his exile, there is no outsider that can lead an armed group against the Kremlin. So, after surviving the current tensions, Putin will be "reelected" to Russia's presidency early next year.
Why does my forecast so strongly favor the Kremlin? There are several reasons for this.
First, any attempt to seize a state power should have a clear beneficiary. Russia, however, distorted as its judicial system might be, will hardly welcome some bodyguard who may kill the President as the country's new leader. Both recent coups were headed by either Soviet or Russian vice-presidents, and this was why this position was once and forever abolished from the state hierarchy.
Under the current Constitution, the Prime Minister becomes an interim President if his predecessor dies or is incapable of remaining in office.[7] Hence, a real coup should involve a rather large group of people and install someone possessing at least some legal grounds for enjoying supreme powers.
Building such a coalition has always been difficult, and these days it is even more so. Moreover, Russia is facing too many challenges to be seen as a desired prize: if someone were to assume power now, they would probably preside over a humiliating defeat in Ukraine, the aggravating economic crisis, the problematic negotiations concerning the lifting of the Western sanctions that may include the issue of compensations to be paid to Ukraine, etc. The demobilized army may create additional problems, as may the former prisoners who should be pardoned for their service. So, in general, it looks quite probable that anyone who assumes power these days in Russia would want to leave the Kremlin quite soon. To my mind, the Russian elite groups these days would prefer to let President Putin go his way up to the end, and to overtake the ailing country after a serious collapse happens.
Putin Has No Intention Of Quitting The Presidency
Second, Putin himself has no intention of quitting the presidency. His entire career proves that he values himself and his personal powers above all benefits of the system, both real and illusionary.
He had a perfect time to leave in 2012, when he was not involved in any serious wrongdoings and was protected by the law granting immunity to presidents even after ceasing to exercise their powers.[8] Nevertheless, he decided to return to the Kremlin, after serving as Prime Minister, and to start a new period in Russia's history that looks now like a lost decade. Now, wanted by the International Criminal Court and recognized as a war criminal, Putin will never resign, since he knows too well what happened to ex-President Milošević after he admitted his defeat in the 2000 presidential elections.[9]
Therefore, the "soft" transition, or what the Russian analysts have for years called a "transfer of power," is also not an option. One should expect that Putin will try to strengthen his position, reinforce his security services, become more active in public, and organize the March 2024 elections as a performance that may produce only one result (it seems the voting will take part over the course of three days, almost any observers will be banned from entering polling stations, the voting might be organized outside specially designated halls, etc.). The preparations for the election campaign started well before Prigozhin's mutiny,[10] and there are no signs they have stopped since.
After The Wagner Rebellion, Putin Has More Legitimacy To Continue The War In Ukraine
Third, the recent unrest proved another important fact: Even though Wagner mercenaries deserted the frontline, the Russian forces seem to hold firm their positions against the Ukrainians. For Putin, the war with Ukraine has become the one and only project he wants to continue – as long as goes on, he may claim that Russia is being attacked by the entire world and he is the only person able to save the country. The Wagner revolt, I would emphasize, happened after more than a month of intensive accusations made by Prigozhin against the Defense Ministry, which seemingly refused to arm his regiments.[11]
Prigozhin repeatedly claimed that the Russian defense lines are fragile, and therefore without his troops the front may collapse. Many servicemen in the regional army sympathized with him because they also became doubtful about the perspectives of the war. Now Putin should look for options to intensify the fighting rather than to ease it – the Wagner rebellion gave him all the powers to do so: Paradoxically, these days he possesses an even more extended mandate for continuing the war in Ukraine than he had before the uprising.
'The Revolt Gained No Support From Civilians'
Fourth, the mutiny almost "nullified" the Russian emigrant opposition, which for years advocated a peaceful and legal transition of power through fair elections. The Wagner revolt had shown that a couple of thousand armed men can shatter the foundations of the regime much more effectively than YouTube shows and blogs that are seen, read, and enjoyed by millions of people. The impact was so strong that one Putin's most devoted critics, billionaire businessman Mikhail Kho­dorkovsky, passionately appealed to the Russian public to take up arms and to fight the current regime for… securing the position of Prime Minister for himself.[12]
I haven't seen a single positive reaction to this address, even from those opposition activists who long ago left Russia, not to mention from someone staying in the country. It seems now that only a revolution may destroy the regime, but the revolt gained no support from civilians – even while the same Khodorkovsky at the very start of the mutiny voiced his sympathy for Prigozhin, saying that the advocates of "the better Russia" must endorse even a devil if the devil would try to overthrow the Putin system.
Conclusion
Summarizing all the above, I would argue that Prigozhin's mutiny was a painful, but by no means fatal challenge to President Putin. With high certainty, Putin's regime will consolidate itself in the upcoming months, as some minor changes will be introduced and more capable generals will be appointed to lead the troops. Putin will behave himself, as he had already started his reelection campaign, and his closest allies will remain loyal to him. The Russian power system looks fragile now, but the entire bureaucratic class as well as large businesses and millions of state employees still benefit from it, so any kind of change now looks more challenging. There's no doubt that the decomposition of Putin's regime has started – but no one can say for sure how much time may pass till the final crackdown will come…
*Dr. Vladislav Inozemtsev is the MEMRI Russian Media Studies Project Special Advisor, and Founder and Director of the Moscow-based Center for Post-Industrial Studies.
[1] Ridl.io/outliving-putin-co/, May 11, 2021.
[2] T.me/kremlebezBashennik/32305, February 20, 2023.
[3] 24tv.ua/ru/grazhdanskaja-vojna-rossii-24-ijunja-2023-goda-obognala-gugl_n2340690, June 24, 2023.
[4] Republic.ru/posts/108684, June 9, 2023.
[5] Cnn.com/2023/06/25/politics/antony-blinken-russia-putin-wagner-cnntv/index.html, June 25, 2023.
[6] Lenta.ru/news/2023/06/27/tankorosggvard/, June 17, 2023.
[7] Constitution.ru/10003000/10003000-6.htm
[8] Consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_30387/25eb3a123115367a95c5d52d42da11e50f2f5657/
[9] Ip-quarterly.com/en/milosevic-option
[10] Rbc.ru/politics/02/04/2023/64297e629a7947fae31033c2, April 2, 2023.
[11] Reform.by/prigozhin-obvinil-shojgu-v-razvjazyvanii-vojny-radi-marshalskih-pogon-i-lzhi-o-situacii-na-fronte, June 23, 2023.
[12] Moscowtimes.ru/2023/06/28/hodorkovskii-prizval-rossiyan-s-oruzhiem-v-rukah-sdelat-ego-premer-ministrom-a47383, June 28, 2023.