English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 25/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
But many who are first will be last, and the last will be first.
Mark 10/28-31: “Peter began to say to Jesus,
‘Look, we have left everything and followed you.’Jesus said, ‘Truly I tell you,
there is no one who has left house or brothers or sisters or mother or father or
children or fields, for my sake and for the sake of the good news, who will not
receive a hundredfold now in this age houses, brothers and sisters, mothers and
children, and fields, with persecutions and in the age to come eternal life. But
many who are first will be last, and the last will be first.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on January 24-25/2023
Week of Prayer for Christian Unity concludes in Beth Kerke, Lebanon
Lebanon: solidarity press conference held by supporters and lawyers of USUP
President Ibrahim Mrad over his unlawful interrogation by Lebanese judiciary
Tensions rise in Lebanon after judge investigating Beirut blast takes aim at top
officials
US sanctions economist Hassan Moukalled for 'facilitating Hezbollah activities'
Bitar says did what his conscience dictated, denies French pressure
Tarek Bitar, Lebanon's judge with a grudge
Zoaiter calls Bitar 'mentally ill' after being summoned for interrogation
Oueidat among 8 charged over Beirut blast as complications arise
Nasrallah aide says Bitar's probe 'black stain' on Lebanese justice
Badri Daher's lawyer says Bitar must release all 17 detained
Pro-Hezbollah daily says Bitar has gone mad, US supports probe resumption
Beirut port blast: the long quest for justice
EU team lauds successful Lebanon trip in Salameh investigation ... The
investigators are planning another round of questioning in March
Hyena Dilemmas, Shiite Fascism Predatory Politics and the Quandaries of Conflict
Resolution/Charles Elias Chartouni/January 24/2023
Titles For The
Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on January 24-25/2023
7 dead as California mourns 3rd mass killing in 8 days
Iran Threatens Retaliation over Sanctions Imposed by EU, Britain
Iran athlete says ‘no regrets’ after losing eye at protest
Jordan stresses importance of respecting status quo in Al-Aqsa Mosque during
Netanyahu meeting
Netanyahu meets Jordan's king in surprise trip amid tension
Finland's top diplomat hints at joining NATO without Sweden
Civil Society in Tunisia: Resetting Expectations
Russia says it is working hard to resolve Armenia-Azerbaijan dispute
Putin’s Favorite Neighbor Whips Out the Big Guns in New Warning
White House press corps bursts out laughing at George Santos at briefing
Russian mercenary boss asks parliament to ban negative media reports about his
men
In reversal, US poised to approve Abrams tanks for Ukraine
Ukrainian officials dismissed in Zelenskiy's biggest shake-up of war
Titles For The
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on January 24-25/2023
Iran Has Changed, the World Must Keep Pace with it/Nadim Koteich//Asharq
Al Awsat/January 24/2023
Could There Be a Breakthrough in Syria?/Omer Onhon/Asharq Al Awsat/January
24/2023
The Important Line between Civil and Criminal Is Being Breached/Alan M.
Dershowitz/ Gatestone Institute./January 24, 2023
Congress Questions Biden Plan to Sell F-16s to Turkey/Sinan Ciddi/FDD/January
24/2023
Assessing CENTCOM’s Posture in 2023/Nathan P. Olsen/The Washington
Institute/January 24/2023
British people need policies not platitudes/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/January
24, 2023
on January 24-25/2023
Week of Prayer for Christian Unity concludes in Beth Kerke, Lebanon
SyriacPres/January 24/2023
BETH KERKE, Lebanon — On Sunday, a week of prayer for the unity of Christian
Churches concluded in the Syriac Maronite Patriarchal Church in Beth Kerke (Bkerke),
Lebanon.
The event was attended by Syriac Maronite Patriarch Mor Bechara Butros Rai,
Catholicos of the Armenian Catholicosate of the Great House of Cilicia Aram I
Keshishian, Syriac Catholic Patriarch Mor Ignatius Joseph III Younan, Patriarch
of the Melkite Catholic Church Mor Youssef Absi, and Patriarch of the Armenian
Catholic Church Raphael Bedros XXI Minassian.
Patriarchal Vicar in Zahleh and Archbishop of Beqaa Mor Justinos Boulos Safar,
Archbishop of Hmoth (Homs), Hemto (Hama), Tartous and Environs Mor Timotheos
Matta al-Khoury, and Patriarchal Secretary and Media Office Director Mor Joseph
Bali were in attendance, along with archbishops and clergy of the various
Churches in Lebanon. Joint prayers and hymns were sung by several church choirs.
Patriarch al-Rai delivered a sermon in which he addressed the importance of the
common preaching, liturgy, and service of the Churches. Patriarch al-Rai led a
prayer for Christians unity, asking for the help of the Holy Spirit to overcome
the remaining obstacles to the unification of the Churches.
Lebanon: solidarity press conference held by supporters and lawyers of USUP
President Ibrahim Mrad over his unlawful interrogation by Lebanese judiciary
SyriacPres/January 24/2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzWoqwhVMCk
BEIRUT – A press conference was held on Monday at the Universal Syriac Union
Party’s (USUP) headquarters in Beirut in solidarity with Secretary General of
the Christian Front and USUP leader Ibrahim Mrad, who was summoned for
questioning without reasonable cause by Lebanese judicial authorities last week.
The press conference was attended by representatives of various Christian
political parties and a large crowd of sympathizers with the outspoken positions
and policies regarding a free and independent Lebanon, publicly expressed by the
Front, USUP, and its leader.
Present were representatives of the Lebanese Forces, Kataeb, Guardians of the
Cedars, Continual Federal Congress, and the Assyrian League. Together, more than
400 people were present inside and outside USUP’s headquarters in Beirut. USUP
official Leila Latte opened the press conference and thanked those present and
all the political representatives who came to express solidarity with Ibrahim
Mrad.
In his statement, USUP Secretary General and lawyer Michel Mallo denounced the
double standard and unfairness of the unjust interrogation of his party’s
president Ibrahim Mrad, who merely calls for peaceful coexistence and denounced
Hezbollah’s abuse of Lebanon’s political and economic system. Why is the
judiciary not cracking down on the crimes and repressive actions of this armed
Iran-proxy that keeps the country under gunfire, Mallo asked.
Change Movement head and lawyer Elie Mahfoud denounced the court’s illegal
action, stating that the faked video circulated on social media was fabricated
by Hezbollah, which illegally occupies the country by force.
Secretary General of the Guardians of the Cedars and lawyer Maroun Al-Gamil read
the statement of the Christian Front for Lebanon in solidarity and unity with
its Secretary General Ibrahim Mrad. In his speech, Al-Gamil raised the question
of who the real target is here? The Christian Front or the Sovereign Front for
Lebanon? Lebanon’s Christians or all free-thinking citizens?
Secretary General of the Sovereign Front Camille Dory Shamoun (National Liberal
Party) concluded the press conference with a speech calling on the court to find
the real perpetrator of crimes in Lebanon, no matter how big the crime.
The Universal Syriac Union Party is an affiliate of the Bethnahrin National
Council and advocates an independent and federal Lebanon, free of external
influences.
Tensions rise in Lebanon after judge
investigating Beirut blast takes aim at top officials
Najia Houssari/Arab News/January 24, 2023
BEIRUT: The fallout continued on Tuesday after Tarek Bitar, the Lebanese judge
investigating the devastating explosion at Beirut’s port in August 2020, charged
the country’s top prosecutor, Ghassan Oueidat, and seven other officials in
connection with the blast. They reportedly face allegations of homicide, arson
and other crimes. Bitar surprised many people on Monday when he first announced
he was resuming his investigation, which had been suspended for more a year amid
political and legal opposition, and then said he would be filing charges against
leading security and judicial officials, Oueidat included. The announcement
heightened long-running tensions between Bitar and the public prosecution
office. Oueidat rejected the decision and said Bitar “has been removed from the
case.”More than a dozen senior officials are now in Bitar’s sights in connection
with the explosion, including Abbas Ibrahim, the head of Lebanese General
Security; Tony Saliba, the director-general of State Security; and judges
Ghassan Khoury, Carla Shawah and Jad Maalouf. The explosion on Aug. 4, 2020,
destroyed most of Beirut’s port and neighboring parts of the capital, killing
more than 215 people and injuring more than 6,500.
Information leaked by the Bar Association revealed that Bitar has filed charges
against Oueidat, the country’s highest judicial authority and member of the
Supreme Judicial Council; Brig. Gen. Assaad Toufaili, chairman of the Supreme
Council of Customs; Gracia Al-Azzi, a member of the Supreme Council of Customs;
Brig. Gen. Camille Daher, the former head of military intelligence; Jawdat
Oueidat, a former senior military intelligence officer; and Gen. Jean Kahwaji, a
former army commander. Bitar has also subpoenaed former Prime Minister Hassan
Diab, MPs Ghazi Zeaiter and Ali Hassan Khalil, and former MP Nohad Machnouk.
They responded by filing complaints against Bitar and calling for his removal
from the case.
Bitar intends to interview them in the coming month about their alleged roles in
“possible intentional killing” and “functional negligence.” On Tuesday, he
notified Diab, Machnouk and Zeaiter of the dates on which they are expected to
appear for questioning and displayed the summons sent to them.
The judge said he based his decision to resume his inquiry on a judicial study
that found he was permitted to resume his judicial work 13 months after it was
suspended as a result of complaints filed against him. His announcements were
welcomed by the families of the victims of the explosion, and of those detained
in connection with it, who expect Bitar to question senior officials suspected
of blame. But Hatem Madi, a former prosecutor general, told Arab News: “I am
worried about the weak image and fragile reputation of the judiciary. The study
that Bitar relied on to resume work is a fatal error.”Bitar’s move revived
political debates and fears of escalating tensions on the streets, as dozens of
protesters blocked a road in the Al-Shiah-Ain Al-Rummaneh area of Beirut with
burning tires. Previous protests, reportedly instigated by Hezbollah and the
Amal Movement, demanding Bitar’s removal from the case escalated into a bloody
confrontation with residents of a Christian-majority area.A parliamentary
committee meeting on Tuesday that was due to discuss laws on the independence of
the judiciary descended into squabbling and heated exchanges between
representatives of Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, who accused Bitar of
“implementing foreign agendas,” and MPs from parties that oppose Hezbollah, who
support the judge and his work. Oweidat issued a statement on Tuesday saying
that Bitar had “ignored us and considered that we do not exist as the public
prosecution, and in return we will consider him non-existent.”He denied that he
intended to sue Bitar and added: “This matter is out of the question. Judge
Bitar has his hands tied and the decision to return to work is illegal.”In
addition to announcing the charges against top officials, Bitar had also
requested the release, without bail, of five people detained in connection with
the case and that they be prevented from traveling. In light of row over his
decisions, the detainees have not been released. A total of 17 people are
currently in custody. In a message posted on its official Twitter account, the
US embassy in Lebanon wrote: “We support and urge Lebanese authorities to
complete a swift and transparent investigation into the horrific explosion at
the Port of Beirut.”
US sanctions economist
Hassan Moukalled for 'facilitating Hezbollah activities'
Naharnet/January 24/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/115223/115223/
The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on
Tuesday designated several individuals and associated entities accused of
“facilitating financial activities for Hezbollah.”
“At the center of this network is Lebanese money exchanger and so-called
financial expert Hassan Moukalled, who plays a key role in enabling Hezbollah to
continue to exploit and exacerbate Lebanon’s economic crisis,” the Treasury said
in a statement.
It also designated CTEX Exchange, a money service business owned by Hassan
Moukalled, in addition to Hassan Moukalled’s sons, Rayyan Moukalled and Rani
Moukalled, who allegedly “facilitate Hassan Moukalled and his company’s
financial activities in support of Hezbollah.”“As corruption undermines economic
growth and the ability of individuals to provide for their families, the United
States is committed to holding accountable those who exploit their privileged
positions for personal gain,” said Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism
and Financial Intelligence Brian E. Nelson. “Today, the Treasury Department is
taking action against a corrupt money exchanger, whose financial engineering
actively supports and enables Hezbollah and its interests at the expense of the
Lebanese people and economy,” Nelson added. The Treasury said Moukalled, a
Lebanon-based economist, has worked in close coordination with senior Hezbollah
financial officials to help Hezbollah establish a presence in Lebanon’s
financial system.“He serves as a financial advisor to Hezbollah and carries out
business deals on behalf of the group throughout the region. Hassan Moukalled
works in close coordination with sanctioned senior Hezbollah financial official
Muhammad Qasir and represents Hezbollah in negotiations with potential
investors, partners, and even foreign government officials,” it added. “Hassan
Moukalled has coordinated a wide range of issues with Muhammad Qasir, including
business deals involving Russia, as well as efforts to assist Hezbollah in
obtaining weaponry for Hezbollah’s use,” the Treasury charged, noting that
Moukalled had publicly acknowledged his role in 2016 as an intermediary for
negotiations between the Central Bank and Hezbollah.
As for CTEX, the Treasury said that in mid-2021 Moukalled received a license
from Lebanon’s central bank for CTEX to transfer money within Lebanon and
abroad, and within a year the company had obtained significant market share
within Lebanon’s currency transfer sector and was reportedly “collecting
millions of U.S. dollars for the Central Bank of Lebanon.”“At the same time,
CTEX was also providing U.S. dollars to Hezbollah institutions and recruiting
money changers loyal to Hezbollah. Hassan Moukalled advocates for CTEX directly
to the central bank governor and receives commissions in the hundreds of
thousands of dollars daily,” the Treasury added.
Bitar says did what his conscience dictated, denies
French pressure
Naharnet/January 24/2023
Beirut port blast investigator Judge Tarek Bitar, who resumed his probe Monday
in a surprise move after a 13-month suspension, has said that he did what his
“conscience dictated” on him after “having reached a dead end.”
In remarks published Tuesday in Annahar newspaper, Bitar also denied the
presence of any link between a French judicial team’s visit to him last week and
the decision to resume the investigation, noting that his move came after “an
extensive study that took more than two months.”He added that the French
delegation hoped for a completion of the long-running probe. Asked about the
supportive and opposing responses that he expects regarding his decision, Bitar
emphasized that he did what his “duty and conscience” obliged him to do, noting
that some judges have supported his step, including former state prosecutor
Hatem Madi.
“Let it be opposed by whoever wants to oppose it. My legal conviction obliged me
to do what I did,” Bitar went on to say.
Bitar has decided to resume his probe into the deadly August 2020 mega-explosion
despite strong political pressure that had led to a suspension of his work for
more than a year.
On Tuesday, he charged eight more figures, including Lebanon's top prosecutor
Ghassan Oueidat and three judges with "homicide, arson and sabotage" in
connection with the case.
Bitar justified his resumption of the probe with a legal study that he has
conducted.In a leaked copy of the study, Bitar mentions the following:
- The Judicial Council is a special court that is totally independent and not
outranked by any other court or judicial body.
- The new Code of Criminal Procedure issued in 2001 allowed for the recusal and
removal of Judicial Council members but not the judicial investigator.
- The same Code of Criminal Procedure stipulated the appointment of a successor
to any removed Judicial Council member to avoid any obstruction of justice.
- Legislators wanted the judicial investigator to be a special investigator to
whom the rules of recusal and removal do not apply.
- Any judicial decision to remove the judicial investigator would certainly
entail the abolishment of a post created by governmental decision, which would
breach the principle of separation of powers stipulated by the constitution.
Tarek Bitar, Lebanon's judge with a grudge
Agence France Presse/January 24/2023
By daring to charge powerful figures in the case of the devastating 2020 Beirut
port blast this week, Lebanese judge Tarek Bitar has crossed all red lines and
openly challenged an entrenched ruling elite.
Bitar decided to resume his investigation after a slew of lawsuits, mostly from
politicians charged in the case, forced him to stop work for 13 months. The
daring judge made Lebanese history Monday when he charged the country's public
prosecutor. The prosecution service quickly pushed back, and on Tuesday rejected
the resumption of the probe and new charges against some of the country's most
powerful security and judicial officials.
But Bitar has refused to back down.
For part of the establishment and its supporters, Bitar is politically biased
and the biggest threat to the status quo since a wave of protests against the
ruling class in 2019. To some of those seeking truth and justice after the
deadly port blast, the 47-year-old is a white knight fighting a desperate and
lonely battle against a corrupt and criminal elite. But for the relatives of
more than 215 people who were killed when a huge consignment of haphazardly
stored fertilizer exploded on August 4, 2020, Bitar is the only hope.
"He is courageous and dared to challenge the very authorities that have been
impeding the investigation for two and a half years," Cecile Roukoz, who lost
her brother during the blast, told AFP. Bitar has rocked the boat by summoning
top politicians from a range of political parties for questioning, and even
going as far as issuing an arrest warrant when one failed to show up. Throughout
his investigation, he has taken on some of Lebanon's untouchable political
barons, angering most of the country's ruling elite -- including the powerful
Iran-backed Hezbollah, which has called for his dismissal. In October 2021,
Hezbollah and its ally Amal called for demonstrations to demand Bitar's
dismissal and seven people died in armed clashes that erupted during the rally.
'Incorruptible'
He has been under military protection since he began his thorny investigation.
"He knows he is under threat, but he isn't scared," Roukoz said. "He is one of
the judges who refuse to submit to politicians." The man handling the biggest
case since former prime minister Rafik Hariri's 2005 assassination is a little
known figure, who rarely talks to the press or even appears in public. Hezbollah
has accused Bitar of political bias and Washington of "interference" in the
investigation. But the judge's supporters say he is independent, and has managed
to position himself outside a political system of patronage under which parties
bank on sectarian allegiance to get their way. "He has no known political
affiliation," said a person close to him, who agreed to speak on the condition
of anonymity. "That's why politicians have a problem with Bitar -- they have no
means to pressure him."The politicians he is pursuing accuse him of being
outspoken about the fact that the time has come to change the political class.
Throughout his career, the Christian judge from the north of Lebanon has managed
to forge himself a reputation as an "upright and incorruptible" member of the
judiciary, even to his detractors.
'Strange phenomenon'
Confident, some say to the point of arrogance, he keeps to himself.
"When he was named to lead the investigation, people struggled to find a picture
of him," the person close to the judge said. A stern character who is dedicated
to his mission, he is rarely seen smiling. He declines invitations to dinner,
receptions and all other social occasions for fear of being perceived as being
swayed one way or the other. "He doesn't even accept phone calls from people who
want to ask him for a favor," they said. Even some of his colleagues eye this
"strange phenomenon" of a judge with suspicion, and claim a more experienced one
should have been appointed for such a sensitive probe. "People are disturbed by
his audacity. He's something no one has seen before at the Palace of Justice,"
the same source said.
He lives with his wife, a pharmacist, and their two children, who are now
guarded by soldiers. After graduating with a degree in law from the Lebanese
University, he started his career in north Lebanon, where he established himself
as an independent magistrate, before going on to head the Beirut Criminal Court.
Zoaiter calls Bitar 'mentally ill' after being
summoned for interrogation
Naharnet/January 24/2023
MP Ghazi Zoaiter angrily stormed out Tuesday of a session for the Administration
and Justice Parliamentary Committee during the discussion of a law on the
independence of the judiciary.
“They want to argue and they are ignorant of the law,” al-Jadeed TV quoted
Zoaiter as saying during the session. The TV network added that a heated debate
erupted after AMAL Movement’s MPs attacked Beirut port blast investigator Judge
Tarek Bitar, with Zoaiter describing him as “mentally ill.”Speaking to al-Jadeed,
Zoaiter declined to comment on what happened in the meeting, noting that he will
"respond” to Bitar’s summoning of him “through the judiciary.”Bitar, who resumed
his investigations on Monday in a surprise move, has scheduled interrogation
sessions for Zoaiter as well as ex-minister Nouhad Mashnouq and ex-PM Hassan
Diab. Bitar decided to resume his probe into the deadly August 2020
mega-explosion despite strong political pressure that had led to a suspension of
his work for more than a year. On Tuesday, he charged eight more figures,
including Lebanon's top prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat and three judges with
"homicide, arson and sabotage" in connection with the port blast case.
One of history's biggest non-nuclear explosions destroyed most of Beirut port
and surrounding areas on August 4, 2020, killing more than 215 people and
injuring over 6,500. The blast was caused by a fire in a warehouse where a vast
stockpile of the industrial chemical ammonium nitrate had been haphazardly
stored for years, authorities said.
In total, 13 people are being prosecuted, including five officials whom Bitar
indicted earlier, among them Diab and three former ministers.
Relatives of the dead have been holding monthly vigils ever
since the disaster, seeking justice and accountability.
Many families have placed their hopes in Bitar, who has however faced legal
challenges, delays and strong resistance from Hezbollah and its allies who
accuse him of political bias. Hezbollah and its ally Amal called for
demonstrations to demand his dismissal in October 2021, after which a gunbattle
broke out in the Tayyouneh-Ain el-Remmaneh area and seven people were killed.
Reopening the case Monday after a 13-month suspension, Bitar charged an initial
eight suspects, including General Security head Abbas Ibrahim and State Security
agency chief Tony Saliba, and released five others. In Lebanon, state
institutions have been reluctant to cooperate with the domestic probe, which
began the same month as the explosion. In February 2021, Bitar's predecessor as
lead judge was removed from the case after he had charged high-level
politicians. The interior ministry has also failed to execute arrest warrants
issued by Bitar, further undermining his quest for accountability. Bitar
justified his resumption of the probe with a legal study that he has conducted.
In a leaked copy of the study, Bitar mentions the following:
- The Judicial Council is a special court that is totally independent and not
outranked by any other court or judicial body. - The
new Code of Criminal Procedure issued in 2001 allowed for the recusal and
removal of Judicial Council members but not the judicial investigator.
- The same Code of Criminal Procedure stipulated the appointment of a successor
to any removed Judicial Council member to avoid any obstruction of justice.
- Legislators wanted the judicial investigator to be a
special investigator to whom the rules of recusal and removal do not apply.
- Any judicial decision to remove the judicial investigator would certainly
entail the abolishment of a post created by governmental decision, which would
breach the principle of separation of powers stipulated by the constitution.
Oueidat among 8 charged
over Beirut blast as complications arise
Agence France Presse/January 24/2023
Judge Tarek Bitar has charged Prosecutor-General Ghassan Oueidat and judges
Ghassan Khoury, Carla Shawwah and Jad Maalouf, a first in the country's history,
a judicial official told AFP on Tuesday. The prosecution service, however,
quickly pushed back, rejecting the resumption of the probe. Bitar decided Monday
to resume his probe into the devastating August 2020 explosion despite strong
political pressure that had led to a suspension of his work for more than a
year. On Tuesday, he charged eight more figures, including Lebanon's top
prosecutor Oueidat and the three judges, with "homicide, arson and sabotage",
said the judicial official who spoke to AFP on condition of anonymity. Bitar
also charged Higher Customs Council chief Asaad Toufaili, and Higher Customs
Council member Gracia al-Qazzi, General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim
and State Security chief Maj. Gen. Tony Saliba. One of history's biggest
non-nuclear explosions destroyed most of Beirut port and surrounding areas on
August 4, 2020, killing more than 215 people and injuring over 6,500.
The blast was caused by a fire in a warehouse where a vast
stockpile of the industrial chemical ammonium nitrate had been haphazardly
stored for years, authorities said. According to the
judicial official, Oueidat had in 2019 overseen a security services
investigation into cracks in the warehouse where the ammonium nitrate was
stored. In total, Bitar plans to question 13 suspects next month, including five
officials whom Bitar indicted earlier -- among them ex-prime minister Hassan
Diab and former ministers. On Tuesday, Bitar scheduled interrogation sessions
for Diab and former ministers Ghazi Zoaiter and Nohad Mashnouq, sending notices
to their places of residence. Oueidat rejected the charges against him and other
top judicial officials and sent a memo to Bitar telling him that he could not
return to work and that his probe is "still suspended as per the law." He will
also send cables to security agencies asking them not to enforce the notices and
release orders issued by Bitar, deeming them illegal, TV networks said.
Claims surfaced Tuesday that Oueidat will press charges against Bitar, but he
told The Associated Press that this is “as of now, incorrect.”
Reopening the case Monday after a 13-month suspension, Bitar charged an initial
eight suspects and released five others.
Nasrallah aide says
Bitar's probe 'black stain' on Lebanese justice
Agence France Presse/January 24/2023
Hussein Khalil, the political advisor of Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah,
has told reporters that Judge Tarek Bitar's investigation was a "black stain" on
Lebanese justice. Lead
investigator into the Beirut port blast Judge Tarek Bitar had resumed work
Monday, over a year after political pressure brought the investigation to a
halt. Despite the surprise decision, Bitar continues to face immense pressure,
which lawyer and activist Nizar Saghieh said there was "no doubt" would persist
"to halt his work"."Bitar is waging a battle against the policy of impunity",
Saghieh told AFP. The young judge was forced to
suspend his probe after a barrage of lawsuits, mainly from politicians he had
summoned on charges of negligence. They include several ex-ministers, two of
whom were hit with arrest warrants after they failed to show up for questioning.
Hezbollah had repeatedly demanded he step down on the grounds
of political bias. The Iran-backed group and its ally Amal called for
demonstrations to demand his dismissal in October 2021, with seven people dying
in gun battles during the rally. Foreign countries and
international bodies have called for the probe to resume. Bitar met last week
with two French judges to discuss the investigation, a judicial source told AFP
at the time, adding he did not share any information with them.
France had launched its own probe into the blast, which
killed two of its citizens and wounded 93. In Lebanon, state institutions have
been reluctant to cooperate with the domestic probe, which began the same month
as the explosion. In February 2021, Bitar's predecessor as lead judge was
removed from the case after he had charged high-level politicians. Parliament
has refused to lift immunity granted to lawmakers, and Bitar's requests to
interrogate top security officials have been turned down. The interior ministry
has also failed to execute arrest warrants issued by Bitar, further undermining
his quest for accountability. The victims' families
have been holding monthly vigils for more than two years, seeking justice and
accountability. "It was time for judge Bitar to resume his work," said Tatiana
Hasrouty, whose father died in the blast. "We are ruled by a mafia, and all
those charged by Bitar are part of that mafia," she told AFP, saying she expects
more hurdles in questioning officials. Some in Lebanon have also voiced support
for an international probe into the tragedy. In a joint letter sent to the
United Nations Human Rights Council in 2021, rights groups and relatives of
blast victims had said "flagrant political interference, immunity for high-level
political officials, and lack of respect for fair trial" have rendered the probe
incapable of delivering justice.
Badri Daher's lawyer says
Bitar must release all 17 detained
Associated Press/January 24/2023
The judge investigating Beirut’s massive 2020 port blast, Tarek Bitar, decided
to release five people who had been detained for more than two years. They
include former customs chief Shafeek Merhi; Sami Hussein, the head of port’s
operations at the time of the blast, and a Syrian worker. Twelve people will
remain in custody, including the head of the port authority and the head of the
Lebanese customs at the time of the blast. The move by Bitar to order the
release of some of the 17 people who have been held since shortly after the
blast came days after protests by family members in Beirut demanding all 17 be
set free. “What Bitar did today is that he committed a major violation of
international laws” says Celine Atallah, attorney for detainee Badri Daher, who
was customs chief at the time of the blast. “If he believes that he has
authority to release some of the detainees it means he has and must release all
seventeen detained. “Under
international conventions that Lebanon ratified and human rights laws, their
detention is unlawful. I put him responsible that he is holding the seventeen as
hostages,” Atallah, a Lebanese-American, told The AP. The officials said Bitar
is expected to charge eight people, including top intelligence officials Maj.
Gen. Abbas Ibrahim and Maj. Gen. Tony Saliba. Bitar previously charged three
ex-ministers who had refused to show up for questioning several times and lodged
legal complaints to stall the probe. Paul Najjar, a survivor of the devastating
blast who lost his 3-year-old daughter Alexandra, said the news was unexpected.
“Obviously it’s very positive. This is all that we’ve been
asking for,” he told the AP. “We are pleased for the decision (to revive the
investigation), whether they (the authorities) stop him very soon or not.”Najjar
is among a handful of relatives of blast victims who have been campaigning for
Bitar and advocating for a robust investigation. In recent weeks, they have
protested more frequently outside the Justice Palace and Parliament building in
Beirut calling for the investigation to continue. Some politicians have
challenged Bitar in court, accusing him of violating the constitution or of
showing bias. There were also reports of threats leveled against the judge and
the government vowed in late 2021 to increase his security. Bitar was also
challenged by some family members of blast victims, including Ibrahim Hoteit who
lost his younger brother in the blast. Hoteit had said that Bitar has become a
hurdle to finding out the truth in the case. Bitar has been the subject of harsh
criticism by Lebanon’s powerful Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Nasrallah
called Bitar’s investigation a “big mistake” and said it was biased. He asked
authorities to remove Bitar.
Bitar is the second judge to take the case. The first judge, Fadi Sawan, was
forced out after complaints of bias by two Cabinet ministers. If the same
happens to Bitar, it could be the final blow to the investigation.
Pro-Hezbollah daily says
Bitar has gone mad, US supports probe resumption
Agence France Presse/January 24/2023
A U.S. State Department spokesperson said in a tweet Tuesday that "we support
and urge Lebanese authorities to complete a swift and transparent investigation
into the horrific explosion at the Port of Beirut". The lead investigator into
the blast, Judge Tarek Bitar, had decided Monday, to widespread surprise, to
resume his probe into the disaster, despite the strong political pressure
against him. Reopening the case after a 13-month suspension, Bitar charged an
initial eight suspects, including General Security head Abbas Ibrahim and State
Security agency chief Tony Saliba, and released five others.
"Port investigation: Tarek Bitar has gone mad," ran the headline of the
pro-Hezbollah daily al-Akhbar, which also accused him of acting "on the basis of
American orders and with European judicial support". Hussein Khalil, the
political advisor of Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, told reporters
that Bitar's investigation was a "black stain" on Lebanese justice, and MP Ghazi
Zoaiter called him 'mentally ill' after being summoned for interrogation. The
judge also summoned at least 14 politicians and judicial, security, and customs
officials for questioning throughout February.
Beirut port blast: the long quest for justice
Agence France Presse/January 24/2023
The Lebanese judge probing the devastating 2020 blast in Beirut port has resumed
work, over a year after political pressure brought the investigation to a halt.
Here are some key facts about the blast and its aftermath.
Deadly explosion
On August 4, 2020, one of history's biggest non-nuclear explosions destroyed
most of Beirut port and the surrounding areas, killing more than 200 people and
injuring over 6,500 others.
The blast was caused by a fire in a warehouse where a vast stockpile of the
industrial chemical ammonium nitrate had been haphazardly stored for years,
authorities said. French President Emmanuel Macron, during a visit to the
Lebanese capital two days after the blast, called for an international probe,
which then-president Michel Aoun rejected. Other moves since then for an
international investigation have also been rejected by Beirut. The tragedy
struck Lebanon as it was battling what the World Bank later called one of the
world's worst financial crises in 150 years, fanning demonstrations against the
government.
Under pressure from protesters, on August 10 Hassan Diab stepped down as
Lebanon's prime minister. Relatives of the victims have been holding monthly
vigils for more than two years, seeking justice and accountability.
Stalled probe
A domestic probe into the cause of the explosion was launched, but has failed to
hold officials accountable. In December 2020, the first lead investigator, Fadi
Sawan, charged Diab and three former ministers with negligence. But Sawan was
removed from the case two months later over accusations of breaching the
constitution. The victims' families have placed their hopes in his replacement,
young and motivated judge Tarek Bitar, who soon found himself up against
Hezbollah and its ally Amal. Bitar had been repeatedly forced to suspend the
probe in the face of legal challenges. His attempt in late 2021 to have
ex-finance minister Ali Hassan Khalil of Amal arrested triggered deadly clashes
in Beirut. On Monday, a judicial source told AFP Bitar had resumed his
investigation after a 13-month halt. Reopening the case, Bitar charged eight
suspects, including General Security head Abbas Ibrahim and State Security
agency chief Tony Saliba, and released five others.
Political fallout
The port blast and stymied probe compounded the disaffection with Lebanon's
political elite that had sparked a popular revolt in October 2019. Hezbollah and
its allies lost their outright majority in May 2022 parliamentary elections, but
their opponents also failed to take power.
Prime Minister Najib Mikati's government has remained in place in a caretaker
capacity with limited powers, unable to enact the sweeping reforms demanded by
international lenders to release a multi-billion-dollar bailout. Aoun's mandate
as president expired in October 2022, worsening the political crisis. Lawmakers
have failed elect a successor 11 times, leaving the country effectively
rudderless.
EU team lauds successful Lebanon trip in
Salameh investigation ... The investigators are planning another round of
questioning in March
Nada Maucourant Atallah/The National/January 24/2023
EU investigators visiting Lebanon as part of a corruption inquiry into banker
Riad Salameh have said the trip was a success. Lebanon’s embattled Central Bank
Governor has been the subject of at least six different investigations in Europe
over alleged financial crimes. This week investigators from Germany, Luxembourg,
and France gained access to documents and questioned witnesses. “We had some
complications at first, but the co-operation turned out to be very smooth; this
is a very encouraging sign for the coming steps,” a diplomatic source told The
National. The trip, the first of its kind in the case, is part of a
cross-country investigation looking into the alleged embezzlement of more than
$330 million from Lebanon's central bank through a contract awarded to the
governor’s brother's company. Judges from France, Germany, Luxembourg, Belgium,
Switzerland and Lichtenstein retraced an alleged laundering scheme going from an
account at the central bank to luxurious properties in Europe owned by Riad
Salameh and his entourage. Their investigations led to the seizing of assets
worth €120 million ($148 million) related to the Salameh case and the indictment
of his romantic partner in Paris.
Both Riad Salameh and his brother Raja, who have not been convicted of any
crimes, have repeatedly denied wrongdoing. Riad Salameh rejects the accusation
of embezzlement, claiming his wealth, which he estimates at $23 million, has
been lawfully acquired and comes from investments he made as a banker before
becoming Central Bank Governor in 1993.
'Unprecedented awakening' among insiders
European investigators were able to question a dozen witnesses with the help of
the Lebanese judiciary, including top officials at the Central Bank, prominent
bankers and an auditor. Zena Wakim, a lawyer for the Swiss foundation
Accountability Now, a civil party in the case related to Mr Salameh in France,
said the European officials' trip has triggered an “unprecedented awakening”
among insiders and a readiness to co-operate with the judiciary, even from those
not summoned for questioning. “Some insiders of the system spontaneously came to
us to share evidence,” she said, and a prominent witness even asked to be heard
directly in Luxembourg, two sources said. Ms Wakim said this was a sign that
“the Lebanese financial sphere is beginning to speak out”. “They see that the
ship is sinking and they need to tell their own version of the story before it
is too late,” she added. Before the arrival of the European officials, it was
feared that the absence of a judge presiding over the stalled local
investigation opened in 2021 into Riad Salameh could have prevented information
sharing from the file. However, in another positive development, the
investigators managed to access the Lebanese file, two sources said.
Among sources close to the case, it is believed that these latest developments
show major suspicions from the European side, which they think should lead to
the trials opening in Europe this year. Ms Wakim was more cautious, saying:
“Anything can happen; the local political elite is still able to manoeuvre to
jeopardise the European investigations”.
A second round in March
There is still progress to be made in this high-profile case, and co-operation
with the Lebanese judiciary has not always been easy in the past amid strong
political pressure. The visiting European investigators were finally able to
obtain Raja Salameh's account information from Lebanese banks, which had they
tried to access for months, in vain. These are key documents, as they will help
the judiciary to track the money flow in Lebanon, where it is suspected that
most allegedly embezzled funds were transferred. But Lebanese authorities handed
over the banking documents under specific conditions regarding their use in
courts abroad. “The documents would need to get approval from the Lebanese
judiciary through a request for mutual assistance if they were to be used in
court,” the diplomatic source said. Some fear that may pave the way for more
delay. The European investigative team is set to come back to Lebanon at the
beginning of March for a second round of questioning, which will include Riad
Salameh and his brother, AFP reported. Their status, whether as witnesses or
suspects, has not yet been communicated.
Hyena Dilemmas, Shiite Fascism Predatory Politics and the
Quandaries of Conflict Resolution
Charles Elias Chartouni/January 24/2023
Observers of the Lebanese political scene are addled, since they have a hard
time defining the nature of this unending cascade of conflicts, its mutating
stakes and metastasizing effects. There is nothing mysterious about the
convoluted processes, once we realize that we are in a dynamic of political
subversion, where different levers are being instrumentalized to achieve
political domination and oversee the destruction of the anthropological
platform, which made possible the existence of a working democracy in our
country, in spite of all pitfalls, and the flaws of a mongrelized political
culture and its self defeating outcomes. Lebanon, as a Nation-State had to cope,
from its very beginning, with the challenges of an undermined legitimacy,
curtailed sovereignty, dysfunctional governance, problematic national and civic
cohesion, and rampant political predation. Nonetheless, the elaborate civil
society textures which characterized the Christian substructure, elicited the
cultural, educational, social and economic synergies that made possible the
functioning of a democracy, the flourishing of a liberal ethos and the sense of
Lebanese patriotism.
It took a highly troubled centennial for Lebanese Muslims to come to terms with
the legitimacy of the Lebanese National entity, and reckon with its differential
impact on their respective trajectories, amidst an ocean of dictatorships,
totalitarian worldviews and destructive power politics setting the norms of
political socialization and governance in this region. The open challenge of
this political legacy by Shiite fascism, far from departing the pattern of
political subversion driven by Arab nationalism (1920-1943, 1952-1958), the
fascist matrix of the Palestinian-Leftist coalition (1965-1990), the Syrian
domination interludes (1977- 2005) and their historical antecedents, locate on a
continuum and foreshadows the final attempt at destroying the anthropological
foundations of Lebanese Nationhood and Statehood. They make no mystery of their
intentions made explicit in political rhetorics, terrorist action and
determination to destroy the norms of civility through violence, mendacity,
institutionalized criminality, and the systematic sabotaging of democratic
institutions. The stalled presidential election, the obstruction of Justice, the
unrestrained political predation highlighted through, rampant patrimonialization
of State institutions and assets, oligarchic logrolling, plundering of private
and public resources as displayed in the monumental financial robbery, hijacking
of public decision making and shunting the levers of organized crime, on the
intersection between a colonized public administration and an elaborate network
of unlawful activities, and a strategy of systematic expropriation of public and
christian estates , through violence and land registry fraud…,.
The sabotaging of constitutional governance, its blatant instrumentalization,
and the perpetuation of this state of systemic obstruction owes to power
assymetries impelled by the Islamic regime in Teheran, systemic deadlocks,
communal solidarity, and open disengagement from the presumed national and civic
community, and a deliberate policy of political obstruction which undermines, so
far, the likelihood of consensual conflict resolution, the effective tackling of
the dire financial crises and their compounded effects, the rehabilitation of
constitutional politics, the normalization of the political environment, and the
reconstruction of the civil peace matrices. The prevailing cynicism aptly
instrumentalized by Shiite power brokers, the oligarchic coalition, and the
interfaces they have managed to create in order to safeguard their power turfs,
synchronize their priorities, foreclose the public space and preempt the entry
of challenging and contending actors. As long as, the internal political
dynamics are permeated by vagrant regional actors and extraneous political
dynamics, namely the Iranian regime and its political nemeses, ideological
political configuration and corollary strategic platforms, there are no chances
for bona fide conflict resolution and equitable settlement.
The chances of a negotiated political solution are scant,as long as, the
subversion dynamics intersect and forestall the restoration of National
sovereignty, autonomous governance and political moderation. The Shiite
subversion strategy is straightforward, and its intentional sabotaging scheme
aims at the destruction of the country’s systemic equilibriums, upending its
urban dynamics showcased through the Beirut Harbor explosion (August 4th, 2020),
the land predation throughout the country, the unlawful takeover of businesses,
and the instrumentalization of Lebanese customs authority to promote trafficking
of every sort, money laundering, and the underground criminal economy. There are
no chances to redress the imbalances short of ideological de-radicalization,
strategic disentanglement, and political normalization. The eroding legitimacy
of the Iranian regime, the bogging down of its imperial drive in the Near East,
the floundering of the Vienna negotiations, the checkmating of the Russian
imperial drive in Ukraine and its mutating galaxies and platforms, and the
controversial power politics of Erdogan, are narrowing the radius of harm of the
Iranian regime and hamstringing its destructive projections. The game of
presidential procrastination is a bet on political instability and its attending
damages: the unraveling of the economy, the thrive of a parallel criminal
economy, the dynamics of demographic replacement through the meteoric rise of
migration, and the Syrian refugee settlement which has reached a climax, after a
decade of open ended and frozen conflicts in Syria.
This context requires a confrontation strategy to preempt the control of
political institutions by the Shiite coalition and its minions (Miqati,
Frangieh, Bou Saab….), contain the jockeying of Gibran Bassil, oversee the
election of an independent presidency, and open the way for systemic reforms
under the arbitration of the United Nations. The internationalization of the
highly volatile issues of a bankrupted judiciary (the monumental financial
robbery, the smothered investigation of the Port criminal explosion and their
sequels) clear the way for the ultimately mandated internationalization of a
failed polity. Otherwise, the spectrum of political chaos is unlikely to be
circumscribed, at a time when the politics of subversion of the Iranian regime
are unrestricted. The politics of destabilization of the Iranian regime, alike
its Russian and Turkish ilks have no holds barred, and the realm of nihilism and
exponential conflicts is gaining leverage and defeating the chances of rational
conflict resolution, political equanimity, and blunting the sense of Justice.
The targeted Christian communities and Lebanese liberals are unlikely to be
swayed by the politics of terror and deliberate obstructionism, and nobody seems
to yield to the diktat, and the search for strategic alternatives is no more a
longing.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on January 24-25/2023
7 dead as
California mourns 3rd mass killing in 8 days
Associated Press/January 24/2023
Seven people were killed in two related shootings Monday at agricultural
businesses in a Northern California community, marking the state's third mass
killing in eight days, including an attack at a dance hall that killed 11 during
Lunar New Year celebrations.
Officers arrested a suspect in Monday's shootings, 67-year-old Chunli Zhao,
after they found him in his car in the parking lot of a sheriff's substation,
San Mateo County Sheriff Christina Corpus said.
Four people were found dead and a fifth injured from gunshot wounds at a farm,
and officers found three other people killed at another location several miles
away, the Sheriff's Office said. Officials believe Zhao is a worker at one of
the facilities and that the victims were workers as well, Corpus said. Corpus
said officials hadn't determined a motive for the shooting.
The new year has brought a shocking string of mass killings
in the U.S. — six in less than three weeks, accounting for 39 deaths. Three have
occurred in California since Jan. 16, according to a database compiled by The
Associated Press, USA Today and Northeastern University. The database tracks
every mass killing — defined as four dead not including the offender — committed
in the U.S. since 2006. The killings occurred on the
outskirts of Half Moon Bay, a city about 30 miles (48 kilometers) south of San
Francisco.
Half Moon Bay Vice Mayor Joaquin Jimenez said the victims included Chinese and
Latino farmworkers. Some workers at one facility lived on the premises and
children may have witnessed the shooting, she said. Corpus it wasn't immediately
clear how the two locations were connected. The Sheriff's Office first received
reports of a shooting just before 2:30 p.m. and found four people dead from
gunshot wounds and a fifth person injured at the first scene. Shortly
thereafter, officers found three more people dead from gunshot wounds at a
second location nearby, Capt. Eamonn Allen said in a news release.
About two hours after first responding, a sheriff's deputy noticed the suspect,
Zhao, in his car parked outside a sheriff's substation in a strip mall and
arrested him, recognizing the car by its license plate.
A video of the arrest showed three officers approaching a parked car with drawn
weapons. Zhao got out of the car, and the officers pulled him to the ground, put
him in handcuffs, and led him away. A weapon was found in his vehicle, officials
said. The video was captured by Kati McHugh, a Half Moon Bay resident who
witnessed the arrest.
The sheriff's department believes Zhao acted alone.
"We're still trying to understand exactly what happened and why, but it's just
incredibly, incredibly tragic," said state Sen. Josh Becker, who represents the
area and called it "a very close-knit" agricultural community. Aerial television
images showed police officers collecting evidence from a farm with dozens of
greenhouses. Half Moon Bay is a small coastal city
with agricultural roots, home to about 12,000 people. The city and surrounding
San Mateo County area is known for producing flowers as well as vegetables like
brussels sprouts. The county allows cannabis farming in certain areas.
It's a majority white community and about 5% of the
population is Asian, according to Census data. "We are sickened by today's
tragedy in Half Moon Bay," Pine said. "We have not even had time to grieve for
those lost in the terrible shooting in Monterey Park. Gun violence must stop."
California Gov. Gavin Newsom tweeted that he was "at the hospital meeting with
victims of a mass shooting when I get pulled away to be briefed about another
shooting. This time in Half Moon Bay. Tragedy upon tragedy."On Jan. 16, a
teenage mother and her baby were among six people killed in a shooting at a home
in California's Central Valley.
Iran Threatens Retaliation over Sanctions
Imposed by EU, Britain
Asharq A-Awsat/Tuesday, 24 January, 2023
Iran on Tuesday strongly condemned fresh sanctions imposed by the European Union
and Britain and said it would retaliate, after the West stepped up pressure on
Iran over its crackdown on protests. Tehran “will soon announce the list of new
sanctions against the human rights violators of EU and England," Iran's Foreign
Ministry Spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said in a statement. The European Union
imposed sanctions on more than 30 Iranian officials and organizations, including
units of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), blaming them for a "brutal" crackdown
on unrest and other human rights abuses. Some EU governments and the European
Parliament have made clear they want the IRGC as a whole added to the bloc's
list of terrorist organizations. But the EU's foreign policy chief, Josep
Borrell, noted that could only happen if a court in an EU country determined the
IRGC was guilty of terrorism. The United States and Britain also issued new
sanctions against Iran, reflecting a deterioration in the West's already dire
relations with Tehran. The sanctions are the latest response to Iran's deadly
clampdown on unrest after the death of young Iranian Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini
in morality police custody in September.
Iran athlete says ‘no regrets’ after losing
eye at protest
AFP/January 24, 2023
PARIS: An Iranian archer who had lost sight in her left eye after being shot by
security forces has said she has “no regrets” for joining nationwide protests.
Iranian authorities have cracked down on more than four months of anti-regime
protests sparked by the September 16 death in custody of Mahsa Amini, arrested
for allegedly violating strict dress rules for women. Kosar Khoshnoudikia, a
member of Iran’s national archery team, had been shot at a rally last year in
her hometown of Kermanshah, in the Kurdish-populated west, said the Norway-based
rights group Hengaw. “I have felt no regrets for being there on that day, at
that time,” Khoshnoudikia said in a video posted Monday by London-based Iran
International TV. Appearing without a headscarf and with her left eye concealed
by a patch, Khoshnoudikia said in the video she had been shot in early December
while attending a march in Kermanshah with her father.
“Three shots hit my right hand and one shot hit my left eye,” she said, adding
her father had also been shot in the hand. Amnesty International and other
rights groups have accused Iranian security forces of partially or completely
blinding multiple protesters, firing live ammunition and metal pellets at close
range.
Khoshnoudikia, who won silver in the compound bow women’s team event at the 2021
Asian Archery Championships, did not say whether she believed she could resume
her sporting career. Despite multiple operations, she has permanently lost the
sight in her left eye, according to Hengaw. “I am never sad about what
happened,” she said. “I lost some things, but I gained a lot.”It was not
immediately clear where Khoshnoudikia was speaking from. At least 481 people
have been killed in the authorities’ crackdown on the protest movement,
according to Norway-based NGO Iran Human Rights. Khoshnoudikia said she had lost
sight in one eye “for a purpose. I have never felt sad for myself and for what
happened.”
Jordan stresses importance of respecting
status quo in Al-Aqsa Mosque during Netanyahu meeting
Arab News/January 24, 2023
The king stressed the need to maintain calm and cease all acts of violence “in
order to pave the way for a political horizon for the peace process”
AMMAN: Jordan’s King Abdullah II stressed the importance of respecting the
historical and legal status quo in the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound during a meeting
with Israel’s prime minister on Tuesday. The king stressed the need to maintain
calm and cease all acts of violence “in order to pave the way for a political
horizon for the peace process,” the royal court said in a statement. He also
called for an end to any measures that could undermine peace prospects. While
hosting Benjamin Netanyahu in Amman, King Abdullah reaffirmed Jordan’s steadfast
support of the two-state solution, which guarantees the establishment of an
independent Palestinian state on 1967 lines with East Jerusalem as its capital.
Israel’s far-right national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir visited the Al-Aqsa
mosque compound in Jerusalem on Jan. 3, angering the Palestinians and drawing a
slew of global condemnations.
Netanyahu meets Jordan's king in surprise trip amid
tension
JERUSALEM (AP)/January 24, 2023
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a surprise trip to Jordan on
Tuesday to meet with King Abdullah II for the first time in over four years,
seeking to shore up ties that have strained since he took office at the helm of
Israel's most right-wing government in history. The rare meeting between the
leaders, who have long had a rocky relationship, comes as tensions grow over
Israel’s new ultranationalist government, which took office late last year. The
talks centered around the status of a contested holy site in the Old City of
Jerusalem sacred to both Jews and Muslims, an emotional issue at the heart of
the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, Jordan's official statement
indicated. Jordan's royal court said the king urged Israel to respect the status
quo at the sacred compound, which Muslims call the Noble Sanctuary and Jews call
the Temple Mount. The compound — the third-holiest site in Islam — sits on a
sprawling plateau also home to the iconic golden Dome of the Rock. Under an
arrangement that has prevailed for decades under Jordan's custodianship, Jews
and non-Muslims are permitted visits during certain hours but may not pray
there. But Jewish religious nationalists, including members of Israel's new
governing coalition, have increasingly visited the site and demanded equal
prayer rights for Jews there, infuriating the Palestinians and Muslims around
the world. In Tuesday's meeting, King Abdullah II also pushed Israel to “stop
its acts of violence” that are undermining hopes for an eventual peaceful
settlement to the decadeslong Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Jordanian
government added, reaffirming its support for a two-state solution. Israel's new
coalition has vowed to expand Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank and
even annex the territory, making a future independent Palestinian state
unviable.
Netanyahu’s office said he discussed “regional issues” and security and economic
cooperation with Jordan, a key regional ally. Jordan’s 1994 treaty normalizing
ties with Israel produced a chilly-at-best peace between the former enemies.
The Jordanian government has already summoned the Israeli ambassador to Amman
twice in the last month since Israel's new government took office — both times
after an incident at the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound. Netanyahu has repeatedly
offered assurances that there has been no change in the status quo at the site.
Earlier this month, Israel’s new hard-line minister of national security, Itamar
Ben-Gvir, made a provocative visit to the site, drawing condemnations from
Jordan and across the Arab world. Jordan also protested to Israel after Israeli
police briefly blocked the Jordanian ambassador from entering the Al-Aqsa
Mosque, decrying the move as an affront to Jordan's role as custodian. The
compound is administered by Jordanian religious authorities as part of an
unofficial agreement after Israel captured east Jerusalem, along with the West
Bank and Gaza, in the 1967 Mideast war. Israel is in charge of security at the
site. Because of Jordan’s special role and the site’s importance to Muslims
around the world, whatever happens at the site has regional implications. The
site emerged as a major flashpoint between Israel and the Muslim world in 2017,
when Israel placed metal detectors, cameras and other security measures at
entrances to the compound in response to a deadly Palestinian attack there.
After days of some of the worst Israeli-Palestinian clashes in years, Jordan
helped resolve the crisis. Over the years, the neighbors have maintained a
crucial security alliance, buttressing Jordan’s position as a partner of the
West in one of the world’s most volatile regions.
Finland's top diplomat hints at joining NATO without
Sweden
Associated Press/January 24/2023
Finland's top diplomat appeared to suggest Tuesday that the country may have to
consider joining NATO without Sweden after Turkey's president cast serious doubt
on the expansion of the military alliance.
"We still have to evaluate the situation if it turns out that
Sweden's application is stalling for a long time to come," Foreign Minister
Pekka Haavisto told Finnish broadcaster YLE. His
comment came a day after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned Sweden
not to expect support for its bid for NATO membership following weekend protests
in Stockholm by an anti-Islam activist and pro-Kurdish groups.
It was the first time a leading government official in either country had
appeared to raise doubts about joining the alliance together. Haavisto later
backpedaled, telling reporters in Parliament that his comment earlier Tuesday
had been "imprecise" and that Finland's ambition to join NATO jointly with
Sweden remained unchanged. He said he had spoken with
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who had stressed to Haavisto that the
military bloc would like to see the two Nordic nations join simultaneously.
"But of course there have been raised concerns within NATO on
how the (recent) incidents in Sweden will affect the schedule," Haavisto said.
The bid by Sweden and Finland to join NATO needs the approval of all existing
NATO members, including Turkey, which has so far blocked the expansion, saying
Sweden in particular needs to crack down on exiled Kurdish militants and their
sympathizers.
Until now, Sweden and Finland have been committed to joining the alliance
together, but Haavisto's comment to YLE raised concerns that Finland was
considering proceeding without its Nordic neighbor.
"We are in contact with Finland to find out what is really meant," Swedish
Foreign Minister Tobias Billström said in a statement to The Associated Press.
"Sweden respects the agreement between Sweden, Finland and Turkey regarding our
NATO membership. We have done that so far and we shall continue to do so."In a
memorandum of understanding signed by the three countries at a NATO summit last
year, Sweden and Finland committed not to support Kurdish militant groups and to
lift arms embargos on Turkey imposed after its incursion into northern Syria in
2019. Pro-Kurdish and anti-Turkish demonstrations in
Stockholm have complicated the process. On Saturday, a far-right activist from
Denmark staged a protest outside the Turkish Embassy in Stockholm where he
burned the Quran, Islam's holy book. A separate pro-Kurdish demonstration was
held later Saturday in the Swedish capital.
The Swedish government has tried to distance itself from the demonstrations,
while insisting that such protests are allowed under the country's freedom of
speech. Turkey responded angrily to the protests,
canceling a planned visit to Ankara by the Swedish defense minister. Protests
were held outside Swedish diplomatic missions in Ankara and Istanbul.
Erdogan slammed Swedish authorities for allowing the Quran-burning
demonstration. "It is clear that those who allowed such vileness to take place
in front of our embassy can no longer expect any charity from us regarding their
NATO membership application," he said.
He also criticized the pro-Kurdish demonstration, accusing Sweden of letting
"terror organizations run wild on your avenues and streets." He said that if
Sweden won't show respect to Turkey or Muslims, then "they won't see any support
from us on the NATO issue."
Civil Society in Tunisia: Resetting
Expectations
Sabina Henneberg/The Washington Institute/January 24/2023
Reduced U.S. support need not mean abandoning Tunisians or democratization, and
can center on directing limited funds more intentionally.
Since Tunisia’s President Kais Saied began consolidating his rule in July 2021,
the country’s once-strong civil society has been plagued with divisions. The
former strength was a product of the post–Arab Spring period, when Tunisia
emerged as a paragon for democratic transition and NGOs proliferated, including
labor unions, human rights groups, and school charities. These civil society
groups drew Western support based on the hope that they would help propel the
state’s transition away from authoritarian rule. Yet the current backslide has
raised the question of whether all that Western support was worth the effort.
In this elaborately illustrated Policy Note, North Africa expert Sabina
Henneberg considers Tunisia’s civil society–state conundrum and how the U.S.
policy community can best respond. Reducing support for civil society, she
contends, need not mean abandoning Tunisians or democratization. Instead, it can
involve directing limited funds with an emphasis on preserving the country’s
post-2011 associations law; prioritizing anti-corruption efforts; supporting
counterterrorism efforts while remaining aware of civil society’s suspicions
regarding state repression; and bolstering educational opportunities for young
Tunisians.
Russia says it is working hard to resolve
Armenia-Azerbaijan dispute
TBILISI (Reuters)/January 24, 2023
Russia said on Tuesday it was working hard to resolve a dispute between Armenia
and Azerbaijan over the Lachin corridor, the sole road linking Armenia to the
Armenian-populated enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. The mountainous route across
Azerbaijan has been blocked since Dec. 12, when protesters claiming to be
environmental activists stopped traffic by setting up tents. Some 120,000 ethnic
Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh depend on it for supplies of food, fuel and
medicine. The standoff has raised international concern, with U.S. Secretary of
State Antony Blinken calling on Monday for the immediate reopening of the route.
Russian is the main power broker in the region and has peacekeeping troops
stationed along the Lachin corridor. Their failure to reopen it is a source of
frustration for Armenia. Russia "continues painstaking and difficult work with
both Armenia and Azerbaijan," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters
when asked to comment on Blinken's remarks. He did not elaborate. Armenia says
the protest was orchestrated by the Azerbaijani government as a deliberate
blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan denies that, saying the activists are
staging a legitimate protest against illegal mining activity. The two countries
have fought two wars since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union over
Nagorno-Karabakh, which is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but
populated mainly by ethnic Armenians.
Putin’s Favorite Neighbor Whips Out the Big Guns in
New Warning
Shannon Vavra/The Daily Beast/January 24, 2023
Belarus’ army has begun removing armored vehicles from long-term storage to
contribute to the joint regional grouping of Russian and Belarusian fighting
forces, according to the Belarusian Ministry of Defense. The decision was made
in order to facilitate “interoperability measures” for the battlegroups, which
have been conducting joint drills since October in Belarus, according to TASS.
It’s just the latest sign that Belarus could be gearing up for military
action—or that it might be preparing to serve as a launchpad for Russian
assaults on Ukraine. Last fall, Russia sent tens of thousands of troops and
armored vehicles into Belarus to conduct live fire exercises. Since then,
Belarus has initiated snap military drills and moved military gear and equipment
toward its border with Ukraine. Earlier this month, the Commander-in-Chief of
Russia’s Ground Forces, Army General Oleg Salyukov, also visited Belarus to
inspect the joint Russian-Belarusian military force. Belarusian leader Alexander
Lukashenko allowed Moscow to use Belarus as a launchpad for its failed offensive
against Kyiv last year, and has likely continued his attempt to beef up
Belarusian combat readiness due to pressure from Russia, analysts say.
Russia Sets Ultimatum to Formally Pull a Third Country Into Putin’s War.The news
that Belarus is transitioning military gear out of long-term storage comes just
days after Russia’s foreign ministry outlined conditions under which Belarus
would join the war in Ukraine. If Belarus or Russia believe that Ukraine has
“used force” against either country, Belarus will join the war, according to the
ministry. It’s not clear what “use of force” comprises in the eyes of Minsk or
Moscow, but Lukashenko has been opining publicly about perceived Ukrainian
threats to Belarus in recent days. Lukashenko suggested Tuesday that Ukraine
continues to make threatening moves by training armed forces to defend against a
Belarusian assault on Ukraine from the north. “On the one hand, they ask us not
to send troops to Ukraine… On the other hand, they are preparing this explosive
mixture and arming them,” Lukashenko said Tuesday, according to Belta, adding
that Kyiv proposed Belarus enter into a “non-aggression pact” with Ukraine.
“Therefore, we are forced to react harshly… They should consider themselves
warned.”It was not immediately clear if Ukraine had indeed suggested a
“non-aggression pact” with Belarus. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry did not
immediately return request for comment. Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry has sought to
simmer tensions with Belarus, reassuring Minsk in a statement Tuesday that
Ukraine does not intend to attack the country. “We confirm the absence of any
aggressive intentions towards Belarus on our part,” the Foreign Ministry
spokesperson, Oleh Nikolenko, told Ukrainska Pravda. The Kremlin is likely
working to pressure Belarus to prepare to engage in the conflict more, Ukraine’s
Foreign Ministry assesses. “Russia is trying in every possible way to draw
Belarus directly into a war. Ukraine warns Minsk against any possible further
aggressive plans,” Nikolenko said. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also
issued a statement in an attempt to signal to Lukashenko that he ought to resist
pressure to join the war. “We were not going to and are not going to attack
Belarus. This is the main signal from the entire Ukrainian people to the
Belarusian people,” Zelensky told reporters Tuesday. “It is very important for
us that Belarus does not lose its independence and does not join this
disgraceful war despite anyone’s influence.”
White House press corps bursts out laughing at George Santos at briefing
Gustaf Kilander/The Independent/January 24, 2023
The press corps burst out laughing at the question of whether George Santos was
invited to the reception for new members of Congress at the White House. On
Monday during the White House press briefing, a reporter asked if the
administration has “any guidance on how many new members the president intends
to have?” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said she doesn’t have
“any numbers to confirm with you at this time”. “So it wouldn’t be the whole
class?” the reporter asked. “Again, I would have to go back to the Office of
Legislative Affairs. As you know, that process is run through them. I don’t have
a number to share at this time on who is confirmed to attend,” Ms Jean-Pierre
added. “And is George Santos invited?” the reporter added, prompting laughter in
the briefing room after some hesitation from Ms Jean-Pierre. “I love how
everybody laughed at that,” the press secretary said. “Well, look, as you know,
it’s an event for the new member, the new Congress, so everyone is invited who
is part of the new Congress. I just don’t have a confirmation on who is
attending at this time,” she added. “But I understand the question. I just don’t
have that.” The moment came as new footage from a Brazilian podcast interview
revealed that Mr Santos claimed to have been the target of an assassination plot
and to have been robbed on Fifth Avenue. The congressman, who has been caught in
a number of lies, including falsifying his resume, told the Brazilian podcast
Radio Novela Apresenta on 7 December that his home was vandalised in January
2021 because he’s a Republican. “I’m going to a New Year’s Eve party with my
husband. We go back to our house, it was vandalised because we were at a
Republican party in Florida in December 2020,” Mr Santos says in a clip
published by The Rachel Maddow Show on MSNBC. “So that’s it. I’ve experienced
vandalism,” he adds, according to the translation. “We have already suffered an
attempt on my life, an assassination attempt, a threatening letter, having to
have the police, a police escort standing in front of our house.”
Mr Santos went on to claim that in the summer of 2021, he was robbed on Fifth
Avenue. “I was mugged by two men. Before asking any questions, they weren’t
Black, they were even white, but they robbed me, took my briefcase, took my
shoes, and my watch. And that was in broad daylight. It was 3pm I was leaving my
office, going to the garage, getting my car, and I was mugged,” he says in the
footage. “They stole your shoes in the middle of Fifth Avenue?” interviewer João
Batista Jr asks. “In the middle of Fifth Avenue,” Mr Santos responds. “And that
wasn’t the worst of it. Nobody did anything, nobody did anything. The fear is
real. It’s surreal what we live through here.”The Independent has reached out to
the office of Mr Santos for comment.
Russian mercenary boss asks parliament to ban
negative media reports about his men
Andrew Osborn/LONDON (Reuters)/January 24, 2023
The founder of Russia's Wagner mercenary group fighting in Ukraine has asked
parliament to ban negative media reports about his men by amending the criminal
code to make "discrediting" his fighters punishable by up to five years in jail.
Yevgeny Prigozhin made the request in a letter sent to Vycheslav Volodin, the
hawkish chairman of the State Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament.
Prigozhin's press service published the letter on Tuesday. Volodin, a close ally
of President Vladimir Putin, is already advocating amending the criminal code to
allow the authorities to confiscate the property and assets of Russians living
abroad who publicly insult Russia and its armed forces. Mercenary boss Prigozhin,
who has adopted a high public profile since the war in Ukraine began in an
apparent effort to curry favour with Putin and enhance his own prospects, has
drawn attention to the major role his fighters have played in helping seize some
towns and villages and has frequently criticised Russia's own top military
brass. In his letter, he accused "certain media, bloggers and Telegram channels"
of discrediting some of his men, including convicts he has recruited into
Wagner's ranks, by presenting them as "bad guys and criminals". That was a
reference to the fact that the sometimes grisly and murderous past of some
convicts recruited by Wagner has been publicised. The men took up his offer to
fight in Ukraine for six months as they were promised a pardon if they survived,
even if they had originally been jailed for life.
Prigozhin asked parliament to criminalise any actions or publications that
discredited such individuals and to outlaw public disclosure of their criminal
past. "In essence, the people who are on the most dangerous parts of the
frontline and who are risking their lives every day and dying for the Motherland
are being portrayed as second-class people, stripping them of the right to atone
for their guilt before society and consciously playing down their achievements,"
Prigozhin wrote in the letter. There was no immediate reaction to his request
from Volodin. Earlier on Tuesday, Sergei Mironov, leader in parliament of the
pro-Kremlin Just Russia party, criticised two Russian regions he said were
refusing to bury Wagner fighters killed in Ukraine with military honours. "These
are unconscionable decisions because you can't judge what a person did in the
past," said Mironov. "Especially if the person died with a weapon in his hands
defending our Motherland!"
In reversal, US poised to approve Abrams tanks for
Ukraine
WASHINGTON (AP)/January 24, 2023
In what would be a reversal, the Biden administration is poised to approve
sending M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, U.S. officials said Tuesday, as
international reluctance to send tanks to the battlefront against the Russians
begins to erode. The decision could be announced as soon as Wednesday, though it
could take months or years for the tanks to be delivered. U.S. officials said
details are still being worked out. One official said the tanks would be bought
under an upcoming Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative package, which provides
longer-range funding for weapons and equipment to be purchased from commercial
vendors. The U.S. announcement is expected in coordination with an announcement
by Germany that it will approve Poland’s request to transfer German-made Leopard
2 tanks to Ukraine, according to one official. The officials spoke on condition
of anonymity because the decision has not yet been made public.
By agreeing to send the Abrams at an as-yet unspecified time under the
assistance initiative, the administration is able to meet German Chancellor Olaf
Scholz's demand for an American commitment without having to send the tanks
immediately. Much of the aid sent so far in the 11-month-old war has been
through a separate program drawing on Pentagon stocks to get weapons more
quickly to Ukraine. But even under that program, it would take months to get
tanks to Ukraine and to get Ukrainian forces trained on them.
It's unknown how many tanks would be approved. Until now, the U.S. has resisted
providing its own M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, citing extensive and complex
maintenance and logistical challenges with the high-tech vehicles. Washington
believes it would be more productive to send German Leopards since many allies
have them and Ukrainian troops would need less training than on the more
difficult Abrams. Just last week, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin
Kahl told reporters that the Abrams is a complicated, expensive, difficult to
maintain and hard to train on piece of equipment. One thing Defense Secretary
Lloyd Austin has been very focused on, he said, "is that we should not be
providing the Ukrainians systems they can’t repair, they can’t sustain, and that
they, over the long term, can’t afford, because it’s not helpful.”A U.S.
official familiar with White House thinking said the administration’s initial
hesitancy was based on concerns about the requisite training and the sustainment
of the tanks. The official added that the administration believes that such
plans are now in place, but it could take time to implement them.
At the Pentagon, spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said he had nothing to announce
on any U.S. decision regarding Abrams tanks. But he said, “anytime that we’ve
provided Ukraine with a type of system, we’ve provided the training and
sustainment capabilities with that.”The administration's reversal comes just
days after a coalition of more than 50 senior defense officials from Europe and
beyond met in Germany to discuss Ukraine’s war needs, and battle tanks were a
prime topic. Ukrainian leaders have been urgently requesting tanks, but Germany
had resisted mounting pressure either to supply its own tanks or clear the way
for other countries, such as Poland, to send the German-made tanks from their
own stocks. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the deployment of Western tanks
would trigger “unambiguously negative” consequences. Defense leaders from the
countries that have Leopard 2 tanks met with the Germans during the Friday
conference at Ramstein Air Base in an effort to hammer out an agreement. On
Sunday, Berlin indicated it wouldn’t stand in the way if other countries wanted
to send the Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv. Germany needs to agree for the tanks to be
given to Ukraine, which is not a member of NATO.
U.S. and German officials have given mixed signals about whether the U.S. and
German decisions are linked, and whether Berlin was hesitant to send its tanks
unless the U.S. sent Abrams.Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak said
Tuesday that Poland has officially requested permission from Germany to transfer
its Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine. German officials confirmed to the dpa
news agency they had received the application and said it would be assessed
“with due urgency.” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Sunday that
Berlin wouldn’t seek to stop Poland from providing the high-tech armor to
Kyiv.German officials declined to comment on the reports of a tank deal. The
news weekly Der Spiegel reported Tuesday, without citing a source, that Germany
will provide Ukraine with at least one company of Leopard 2 tanks from its own
army’s stock. Scholz is due to deliver an address to parliament Wednesday and
field questions from lawmakers, many of whom have been pressing the government
to join allies in providing the tanks to Ukraine. Lawmakers in Congress have
also been pushing the U.S. to beef up its aid to Ukraine. Senate Republican
leader Mitch McConnell said Tuesday “it’s time, past time” for the Biden
administration and allies to send more military aid to Ukraine, and that the
U.S. must provide more tanks and weapons to help Ukraine “win this war.”“It’s
time, past time, for the Biden administration and our allies to get serious
about helping Ukraine finish the job and retake their country.”The likely plans
to send the Abrams were first reported by The Wall Street Journal.
*Associated Press writers Tara Copp, Kevin Freking and Aamer Madhani contributed
to this report.
Ukrainian officials dismissed in Zelenskiy's biggest
shake-up of war
Olena Harmash and Tom Balmforth/KYIV (Reuters)/ January 24, 2023
A slew of senior officials were dismissed on Tuesday in Ukraine's biggest
political shake-up of the war so far that Kyiv said showed President Volodymyr
Zelenskiy was in tune with his public following corruption allegations. A
long-running battle against corruption in Ukraine has taken on vital
significance as Russia's invasion has made Kyiv heavily reliant on Western
support and it pursues a bid to join the European Union. Democratic and
Republican U.S. lawmakers praised Kyiv for taking swift action against
corruption and insisted U.S. military and humanitarian aid to the government
should continue.
The clear-out of over a dozen officials came days after the arrest of a deputy
minister suspected of graft and allegations that were denied by the Defence
Ministry and sparked an outcry. "The president sees and hears society. And he
directly responds to a key public demand – justice for all," Mykhailo Podolyak,
a senior Zelenskiy adviser, wrote on Twitter. The outgoing officials include
five regional governors, four deputy ministers and a senior presidential office
official seen as close to Zelenskiy. Some changes had been planned for a while,
but were precipitated by a spate of negative headlines, Kyiv-based political
analyst Volodymyr Fesenko said. "This is simultaneously an intensification of
the fight against corruption, and a reaction from the president ... to critical
articles in the media," Fesenko told Reuters. Some of the announcements appeared
linked to corruption accusations while others were entirely unrelated.
Zelenskiy's office said it had accepted the resignation of Kyrylo Tymoshenko,
33, as its deputy head. He gave no reason. Tymoshenko worked on Zelenskiy's
election campaign and had been in his post since 2019, overseeing the regions
and regional policies. He had been criticised by local media for driving flashy
cars during the invasion, though he denied wrongdoing and said the vehicles had
been rented. Zelenskiy later announced that Tymoshenko would be replaced by
Oleksiy Kuleba, the governor of Kyiv region. The shake-up was made all the more
striking coming amid a freeze in domestic politics that has held throughout the
war as political rivalries were largely set aside.
'WORTHY DEED'
Deputy Defence Minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov tendered his resignation after a
local media report accused the defence ministry of paying inflated prices for
food supplies, an old trick used by corrupt officials to skim off money. The
ministry said the allegations were groundless but that the resignation of
Shapovalov, who was in charge of army supplies, was a "worthy deed" that would
help retain trust in the ministry. As the shake-up unfolded, Prime Minister
Denys Shmyhal told a cabinet meeting that Ukraine was making progress in its
anti-corruption campaign. "It is systemic, consecutive work which is very needed
for Ukraine and is an integral part of integration with the EU," he said. Late
on Tuesday Zelenskiy published decrees finalising the dismissal of the governors
of the regions of Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Sumy and Kherson. Deputy
Prosecutor General Oleksiy Symonenko, who had come under fire in local media for
holidaying with his family in Marbella in Spain, was removed from his post.
Symonenko has not commented publicly. Zelenskiy said on Monday that officials
would no longer be able to travel abroad for purposes unrelated to government
work.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on January 24-25/2023
Iran Has Changed, the World Must Keep Pace with it
Nadim Koteich//Asharq Al Awsat/January 24/2023
Is the door completely shut to the possibility of reaching regional and
international understandings with Iran that would help tame the mullah regime?
One of the latest blows received by those who have an optimistic view on the
negotiations with Iran came through the European Parliament’s decision to ask
the EU to put the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) – including the Quds Force
that is entrusted with foreign operations and the Basij forces - on the list of
“terrorist organizations”, in addition to banning “any economic or financial
activity” with the IRGC, through companies or institutions that may be
associated with it.
The importance of this development lies in the fact that Europe has always been,
for economic and political reasons, closer to the logic of improving relations
with Tehran, to the point of expressing readiness to engage in a political clash
with the administration of former US President Donald Trump, after the latter’s
exit from the nuclear agreement. In 2019, the German-British-French trio
desperately sought to keep the agreement alive by creating the Special Trade and
Finance Instrument (INSTEX) to allow European companies to trade with Iran and
protect them from US sanctions. But the mechanism has proven to be ineffective.
The decision of the European Parliament ends or nearly closes a huge gap that
remained open in the history of Iranian relations with the West, and dispels or
almost dispels many illusions about the possibility of taming Iran and
addressing issues and concerns related to its domestic and foreign policies.
What has perhaps accelerated this European shift is the fatal strategic mistake
committed by Iran, through its direct involvement in the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Tehran is providing Moscow with drones and missiles that bombard Europe, making
it part of the direct threat to European security, not only European interests
in the Middle East.
What’s next?
Neither the diplomatic and political approach nor sanctions and other forms of
pressure succeeded in changing the behavior of the mullah regime. After the
conclusion of the nuclear agreement, Iran increased its destructive behavior in
the Middle East; and after its withdrawal from it and the assassination of
Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian regime tightened its grip on the state and
society, to prepare for a new attack when the opportunity arose. A comprehensive
military solution will certainly bring woes to all countries in the Middle East.
Moreover, isolating the Tehran regime will be faced with great obstacles, in
light of Iran’s penetration of the social and political fabric of a number of
neighboring countries, such as Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, in addition to
its links to militias with multiple sectarian and ideological backgrounds, from
Hezbollah to Hamas, al-Qaeda and ISIS, which gives Iran capabilities to employ
others to serve its interests and to harm its opponents. There are no easy
answers on the best way to tame Iran, if taming it were possible. Therefore, a
number of drafters of political papers on how to deal with the Iranian regime
insist on always calling for the adoption of complex approaches and precise,
multifaceted strategies, many of which involve betting on internal developments
in Iran itself, and benefiting from the complex and delicate political, economic
and social dynamics taking place inside the country.
Such calls will naturally flourish today in light of the popular movement that
swept Iran since the murder of Mahsa Amini at the hands of the morality police.
More importantly, betting on the Iranian interior is reinforced by major changes
that afflicted the Iranian national character after nearly half a century of
living under the disastrous consequences of the revolutionary regime. For
example, deep-rooted national feelings among Iranians no longer play the role
they once did. Iranians have become more willing to accept external support,
rather seeking it in an unprecedented manner in contrast to Iran’s historical
political and social experience that was based on a long history of anticolonial
culture, and sharp aversion to foreign influence and interference.
In this context, the Iranian people widely welcomed the announcement by SpaceX
CEO Elon Musk of the deployment of nearly 100 Starlinks to provide secure
internet coverage inside Iran. This shows that the regime’s tendency to blame
external factors for the country’s problems has, in the eyes of Iranians, lacked
even the slightest degree of credibility. This is one of the main features that
the US administration and Western governments must focus on to overcome the
Western complex towards Iran, which is satisfactorily summed up by the
intervention to overthrow the government of Mohammad Mossadegh in 1953, and
re-instate the Shah.
Today, the Iranians are in a different place… A place where lies the point of
convergence between all those who have an interest in ending Iran’s subversive
behavior in the world. True, the Iranian regime is a complex and multifaceted
system, but betting on the contradictions of the “democratic”, religious and
authoritarian components, hoping for change, while neglecting the current
popular dynamics, and disregarding the extent of their separation from the
system as a whole, is a grave mistake that was committed in the past, and I am
afraid that it is being repeated today. The Iranians will not be the only ones
to pay the price. There is a new Iran that rejects the fantasies that prevailed
during the era of former US President Bill Clinton, such as Martin Indyk’s
theory of “Dual Containment” for both Iraq and Iran, or the “Dialogue of
Civilizations” initiative announced by Clinton during a speech he delivered in
1997. He hoped the initiative would open an official channel of communication
between the two countries through intellectuals, academics, and American and
Iranian religious leaders, with the aim of alleviating tension. The
administration of President Barack Obama tried to revive this approach,
especially in terms of lifting sanctions, without paying fair attention to the
changes that occurred in Iranian society and the regime. Then, President Joe
Biden returned to it with stubbornness that lacked any real political depth or a
complex understanding of the reality of the Iranian role, not only in the Middle
East, but in the whole world.
Clinton’s attempts failed for the same reasons that have thwarted Obama and
Biden’s efforts. The bottom line is that the hardline opposition in Iran fears
that the regime will lose its justification for existence if it loses its
revolutionary nature, which always puts it at loggerheads with the status quo
forces in the region and in the world.
In order to understand the essence of the Iranian regime and to dispel all
illusions about a possible deal with it, it is enough to recall the leaked
comments of former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif about
Soleimani’s role, his influence over the nuclear negotiations, the government
and foreign policy, and his constant effort to “sacrifice diplomacy for the
IRGC’s operations.”Evidently, it is not easy for governments and states to wait
for the system to collapse from within, especially since predicting the
possibility of a collapse or its timing is scientifically impossible and
politically impractical.
It is unclear whether the current movement will evolve into a comprehensive
revolution against the regime, despite its growing radicalism, while no serious
cracks appear in its political, security, and institutional structure, despite
the many discrepancies that are increasingly surfacing to the public eye.
We are also facing a system that is suffering combined economic collapse caused
by a harsh package of sanctions, corruption and declining oil revenues, and
drought, as well as the economic repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic. The
system is also witnessing growing popular discontent due to the suppression of
protests that are calling for simple individual rights and complaining about the
deterioration of living conditions that no one can deny. The minimum required is
keeping pace with the developments in Iran with a new perception that
understands the state the regime has reached, and the changes that have taken
place in society and its various forces.
Could There Be a Breakthrough in Syria?
Omer Onhon/Asharq Al Awsat/January 24/2023
Türkiye’s sharp shift in its Syria policy has become the centerpiece of the
recent diplomatic traffic regarding Syria. On December 28, the ministers of
defense of Russia, Syria and Türkiye met in Moscow for the first time in 12
years. Afterwards, the highest-level Turkish officials laid down a roadmap,
according to which, following the defense ministers meeting, ministers of
foreign affairs would meet soon and then the process would hopefully be crowned
with a meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad.
As it turns out, it is unlikely that things will happen as quickly as the
Turkish side hoped. Assad has declared that “first, occupation and support for
terrorism should end” meaning that Turkish troops should withdraw from Syria and
Türkiye should stop all its support to the Syrian opposition.
Later on, Syria’s Foreign Minister Faisal Mikdad stated that “unless conditions
are met, we cannot talk about establishing normal ties with Türkiye” and “a
meeting between Assad and the Turkish leadership depends on removing the reasons
for the dispute.”
Türkiye’s major problems with regard to Syria are at least 3.7 million Syrians
on its territories and security issues, basically, the People’s Protection Units
(YPG) and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
The Turkish government’s Syria policy has been widely criticized in Türkiye even
within the ranks of the ruling AKP (Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party).
The elections in Türkiye are to be held in a few months, maybe in May or the
latest in June. Only a few months are left and the government wants to do
something concrete, or give the impression that it will be able to do something
concrete if it is re-elected. It aims to appease the electorate and deprive the
opposition of an important card of criticism.
Russia and Türkiye, after dangerously confronting each other in Syria on
opposing sides, developed their relations into a cooperative one. The two
countries and Iran formed the Astana process which changed the flow of events in
Syria. Since then, relations between Türkiye and Russia have developed further,
extending to strategic areas, such as air defense systems and nuclear power
stations. The war in Ukraine has led to a further expansion of the scope and
nature of cooperation. Despite words of appreciation for Türkiye’s role
regarding the war in Ukraine, its relationship with Russia has made its western
allies unhappy and suspicious at the same time.
Russia has always tried to convert or at least neutralize Türkiye in Syria and
it now has its chance. Developments around Russia’s war on Ukraine and the
upcoming elections in Türkiye have pushed both countries to take steps which,
maybe, they would not have taken if circumstances were different.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, by facilitating a Türkiye-Syria rapprochement,
hopes to gain on several counts. Supporting Erdogan’s election campaign by
creating favorable conditions for one of the most important issues in Turkish
politics, preventing a new military operation, which would lead to tensions also
with Russia, causing further suspicion and friction between Türkiye and its
western allies and pushing the US out of Syria are among them.
And where does Assad stand? Around a third of Syria is outside of his control,
and the parts which he does are deeply troubled. Suweida and Daraa have been
centers of serious disturbances and security problems. The economic situation is
extremely volatile. Except for the privileged few, the majority of the Syrian
people are at a point where they can almost barely survive. The traditional
Syrian elite and the middle class have been largely replaced by a new crowd.
Together with the Assad family and other regime figures, these mostly war
profiteers are the ones who now have their hands on whatever remains of the
Syrian economy and wealth. Drugs, land and property confiscation, black market
and smuggling make up the bulk of the present-day Syrian economy.
Assad may be militarily weaker compared to major actors involved in Syria, but
he enjoys Russia’s support and protection, which is very unlikely to change
despite the war in Ukraine. Assad probably feels that despite ill feelings
against him, the international community is getting used to the idea that he is
here to stay. He may think that Arab countries have come back and others,
including Türkiye, will eventually join the caravan. With Russia’s push, the
Assad regime is talking to Türkiye, but it has put forward conditions for moving
further with the rapprochement process. It is also worth noting that Assad also
called on its protector Russia “not to impose”, but to “coordinate” with him. He
said “for the meetings (with Türkiye) to be fruitful and for the three countries
to reach tangible goals, the trilateral meetings should be based on prior
coordination and planning between Syria and Moscow.”
Russia has left Iran outside of its recent diplomatic movements, but Iran has
not stepped aside. In January, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian
visited Damascus and Ankara. He stated that Iran was “happy with the dialogue
between Syria and Türkiye”. This statement should be read with the addition of
“to the extent that Iran can influence the developments and as long as they
serve its interests.”A few days ago, Putin and Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi
talked on the telephone on various issues. Iranian press reported Raisi as
emphasizing the centrality of the Astana process in efforts to resolve the
Syrian issues. That means “do not leave us out” and there is probably an unsaid
“or else” to that.
The US is the other major element of the complicated Syria equation. US
cooperation with YPG/SDF continues to be one of the most troublesome issues in
Türkiye-US relations. “The US has no plans to abandon the SDF, as this
Kurdish-led force is the only combat-credible, capable, and committed partner in
Northeast Syria willing to partner with the US on a daily basis to continue this
fight against ISIS,” a high-level Pentagon official reiterated. The US has also
voiced its opposition to attempts to reconcile with Assad. The US position is
not specific to, but includes Türkiye’s recent moves in this direction.
Last week, the Turkish foreign minister made his first official visit to
Washington since the Biden administration took office and met his counterpart,
Antony Blinken. Among the various issues they discussed was Syria. Looking at
the joint statement that was released after their meeting, I would say that they
did not go beyond repeating their positions. There was no breakthrough on Syria
issues, or other issues for that matter. If there was, we would know it,
especially at a time when the Turkish government is very keen on informing its
public about anything that can be presented as “another diplomatic success”.
Looking at the other Syrian parties involved in the conflict, both the Syrian
opposition (including the Syrian National Army) and YPG (Kurds) have their
reasons to be concerned. They are all on high alert to protect themselves and
their interests.
There have been demonstrations in several opposition-held towns in northeast
Syria. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has rejected any reconciliation with the regime. So
have other armed groups. As if to press their point, these groups have resumed
military operations against regime forces in parts of Idlib, Aleppo and Latakia.
The international community has been calling for a political solution in Syria,
based on Security Council Resolution 2254. But there is no progress for reasons
which are well known by now. Involvement of many actors with different and
mostly conflicting interests makes a very complicated problem even more so. At
this juncture, a true reconciliation between Türkiye and Assad could be the
critical breakthrough. The most important element here is the extent to which
Erdogan is willing to carry his “pragmatism” and the extent to which various
parties, including his counterpart in Syria, will trust his intentions.
On Assad’s part, he himself is a major problem and obstacle for progress and the
political solution. He is despised and seen as a war criminal by many Syrians
and an important part of the international community. The only solution Assad
pursues is one that will keep him and his regime in power with absolute
authority. Under the present circumstances, the Türkiye-Syria “process” may be a
very long one.
The Important Line between Civil and
Criminal Is Being Breached
Alan M. Dershowitz/ Gatestone Institute./January 24, 2023
There are two major reasons why criminal liability has been extended to cover
negligent behavior. The first is evidentiary: it is often difficult or
impossible to prove a specific intent to commit a crime, so the law takes a
shortcut, substituting negligence, which is far easier to prove.
The second reason is to put the burden of preventing harms on the persons most
able to do so.
Another consequence [of this expanding criminalization of what used to be civil
violations], which we are currently experiencing in the political world, is the
weaponization of the criminal justice system for partisan purposes.
There are two fundamental mechanisms of justice for wrongs committed. The first
is civil, in which the wrong is compensated economically — by the payment of
money. The second is criminal, in which the wrongdoer is punished — by
imprisonment, probation or fine.
Our constitution recognizes this historic distinction by guaranteeing different
rights in civil and criminal cases. The Bill of Rights provides that "in all
criminal prosecutions," a plethora of important procedural protections must be
accorded the defendant. These include a "speedy and public trial by an impartial
jury", "the assistance of counsel", the ability to confront adverse witnesses
and call favorable ones, prohibitions against compelled self-incrimination and
double jeopardy, reasonable bail and no "cruel and unusual punishment."
In civil cases, on the other hand, there is little more than trial by jury and
basic due process.
This distinction recognizes that the stakes are generally higher in criminal
cases, in which a defendant can be deprived of liberty and life, than in civil
cases involving money. This is not always the case, since some civil judgments
can bankrupt a defendant, while some criminal penalties can be trivial, but the
stigma of a criminal conviction is worse and the penalties usually more painful.
The civil-criminal distinction has gone through several historical phases. In
the beginning of recorded history, the line was blurred, especially between
torts and crimes, In both situations, the defendant has hurt the victim, and the
victim seeks recompense or revenge from the courts. In earlier days, where there
were no prisons for long-term incarceration, the recompense was primarily
economic, except in extreme cases where only capital punishment was deemed a
sufficient remedy.
With the advent of the prison system, the separation between civil and criminal
grew sharper. More recently, the ambit of the criminal law has expanded
significantly, so that harmful conduct once deemed only a civil wrong, subject
to economic compensation, began to be treated as criminal conduct, subject to
imprisonment. This is especially so with regard to negligent acts that produce
great harm, such as death or serious injury from automobile accidents, or
dangerous consumer products, such as germ-laden food or pharmaceuticals.
The same is true of gun accidents, as evidenced recently by the involuntary
manslaughter prosecution of Alec Baldwin for accidentally killing a film set
employee by shooting a prop gun that he was told had no live ammunition. An even
more controversial prosecution was against Kim Potter, a Minnesota police
officer who intended to stop a fleeing felon by properly shooting him with her
taser, but accidentally drew and fired her pistol, killing him. She was
convicted of first- and second-degree manslaughter, sentenced to two years in
prison and denied bail pending appeal, though it was undisputed that she did not
intend to shoot the victim with live ammunition. Some anti-police activists
wanted to charge her with murder.
Another current example of criminalizing negligent behavior is the manner by
which the careless handling of classified material, such as by former President
Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden. The relevant criminal statute does
require evidence that the person who possesses the documents "knowingly removed
" them with the intent to "retain" them, but it doesn't require proof of any
intent to disclose or misuse them.
Other examples of current crimes that used to be civil torts involve the
negligent distribution of foods and pharmaceuticals that are dangerous, and
negligent failure to protect children from harm.
There are two major reasons why criminal liability has been extended to cover
negligent behavior. The first is evidentiary: it is often difficult or
impossible to prove a specific intent to commit a crime, so the law takes a
shortcut, substituting negligence, which is far easier to prove.
The second reason is to put the burden of preventing harms on the persons most
able to do so. Under this approach, Baldwin and Potter are held criminally
responsible for NOT taking additional steps to ensure that the weapon on the
film set was not firing lethal ammunition. Those carelessly in possession of
classified documents are criminally accountable for NOT being more careful. And
those selling food or pharmaceuticals are required to assure the safety of their
products or risk criminal prosecution.
One consequence of this expanding criminalization of what used to be civil
violations is to reduce the stigma of a criminal conviction. When a specific
intent to cross the line to criminality was required — a calculated decision "to
be or not to be" a criminal — it was easier to differentiate the morally and
legally culpable from the merely careless. Today that line has become fuzzier.
Another consequence, which we are currently experiencing in the political world,
is the weaponization of the criminal justice system for partisan purposes.
All in all, the unmistakable trend toward overcriminalization is a
knife that cuts both ways: it may make us a bit safer, but not without real
costs, including the politicization of decisions to subject citizens to criminal
prosecution.
*Alan M. Dershowitz is the Felix Frankfurter Professor of Law, Emeritus at
Harvard Law School, and the author most recently of The Price of Principle: Why
Integrity Is Worth The Consequences. He is the Jack Roth Charitable Foundation
Fellow at Gatestone Institute, and is also the host of "The Dershow" podcast.
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Congress Questions Biden Plan to Sell F-16s to Turkey
Sinan Ciddi/FDD/January 24/2023
The Biden administration informally notified Congress of its intention to sell
40 new F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, along with 79 upgrade kits to modernize the
Turkish Air Force’s existing F-16 fleet. Some congressional leaders have
objected strongly to the sale, citing Turkey’s human rights violations,
intimidation of its neighbors — especially Greece — and obstruction of Sweden
and Finland’s applications to join NATO.
Ankara has long sought to modernize its aging fleet of fighter jets. Until 2019,
Turkey was on track to receive about 100 F-35 fighters, the most advanced
fighter America produces. However, Washington removed Ankara from the F-35
program because it acquired the Russian S-400 air and missile defense system,
which also resulted in sanctions on Turkey under the Countering of America’s
Adversaries through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).
The proposed sale to Turkey has a total value of $20 billion. In addition to the
F-16s and upgrade kits, the sale reportedly includes 900 air-to-air missiles and
800 bombs. The administration also plans to sell at least 30 F-35s to Greece.
Since Turkish threats against Greece have provoked congressional ire, the
pairing suggests an effort to address lawmakers’ concerns. Yet hostility toward
Athens is just one of Erdogan’s provocations, which range from protecting Hamas
leaders to helping Iran move billions of dollars in contravention of U.S.
sanctions.
Once the administration formally notifies Congress of its intent to sell weapons
to Ankara, lawmakers have 15 days to try to block the sale with a joint
resolution of disapproval before the administration can proceed. Senator Bob
Menendez (D-NJ), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee (SFRC), has
opposed the sale of jets to Ankara, citing Ankara’s aggressive stance towards
NATO ally Greece, the country’s poor human rights record, and President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan’s continued refusal to approve Finland and Sweden’s NATO
membership bid.
Lawmakers have never succeeded in blocking a foreign weapons sale by passing a
joint resolution of disapproval. In 2019, Donald Trump vetoed a set of
resolutions Congress passed in an attempt to block the sale of arms to Saudi
Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
The current give and take between Congress and the administration could
influence the White House’s decision whether to submit a formal notification to
proceed with the F-16 sale. The Congressional Research Service observes,
“Congress has, by expressing strong opposition to prospective arms sales, during
consultations with the executive branch, affected the timing and the composition
of some arms sales, and may have dissuaded the President from formally proposing
certain arms sales.”
It is unclear whether Biden will press ahead with a formal notification of the
F-16 sale. Even if the White House decides to proceed with the sale, it will
have to address the impact of the sanctions Washington has imposed on Turkey’s
Defence Industry Agency (SSB), which manages Ankara’s supply of military
technology.
If Biden brushes aside lawmakers’ objections, he would put the White House in
direct confrontation with congressional allies, primarily for the sake of
patching up troubled relations with Turkey. Congress should once again stress to
the administration its strong reservations, insisting Turkey must start
upholding its obligations as a NATO ally prior to receiving the F-16s. This
should include, but not be limited to, immediately ratifying Finland and
Sweden’s NATO membership bid, providing written guarantees that end Turkey’s
overt threats to seize sovereign Greek territory in the Aegean Sea, and taking
steps to ensure free and fair elections in Turkey in May, especially the
approval of international monitoring missions.
*Sinan Ciddi is a non-resident senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD), where he contributes to FDD’s Turkey Program and Center on
Military and Political Power (CMPP). For more analysis from Sinan, the Turkey
Program, and CMPP, please subscribe HERE. Follow Sinan on Twitter @SinanCiddi.
Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CMPP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based,
nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.
Assessing CENTCOM’s Posture in 2023
Nathan P. Olsen/The Washington Institute/January 24/2023
To meet ambitious goals with reduced resources, the U.S. military and its
regional partners will need to continue expanding their focus on unmanned
systems, artificial intelligence, agile combat employment, and integrated air
defense.
As the United States shifted its focus toward great power competition in the
past few years, its global military posture has adjusted accordingly. In the
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility, the number of service
members dwindled from around 75,000 in January 2020 to roughly 40,000-60,000
deployed across approximately eighteen bases. Although this decrease is mainly
attributable to the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, it also includes the
redeployment of carrier strike groups (which used to be routinely deployed to
the region), missile defense assets, and combat aircraft to higher-priority
missions in other parts of the world.
CENTCOM’s core mission remains the same: to direct and enable military
operations and activities with partners in a manner that increases regional
stability. Yet in a great power environment where the Middle East is not the top
U.S. priority, CENTCOM is more resource-constrained than before, and its leaders
will have to adapt how they pursue their regional objectives. Accordingly, the
military must continue adjusting to the new strategic environment in 2023,
including a heightened focus on fielding unmanned systems enabled by artificial
intelligence, employing agile combat systems, and creating a regional integrated
air defense architecture.
Unmanned Systems and AI
Due in part to its drawdown in the region, the military has developed a number
of innovative approaches to help fulfill its mission. In 2023, CENTCOM will
continue pushing the limits on two of these approaches—unmanned systems and
AI—through initiatives such as Task Force 59 (TF 59).
U.S. Naval Forces Central Command established this task force on September 9,
2021, to integrate unmanned systems and AI with maritime operations. TF 59’s
efforts have focused on obtaining maritime domain awareness and increasing
deterrence in the 5th Fleet’s area of operations. The force hit its stride in
2022, when the 5th Fleet operated unmanned systems in regional waters for more
than 25,000 hours to monitor weapons trafficking and other maritime activity.
This dramatic increase in hours enabled the Navy to extensively test systems
such as the Saildrone Explorer and MARTAC Devil Ray T38 on sixty- to ninety-day
cycles.
Most notably, from November 23 through December 15, the Navy hosted the “Digital
Horizon” exercise in Bahrain with seventeen industry partners and fifteen
different types of unmanned systems. Some of these were long-endurance vehicles
designed for persistent surveillance missions, while others were high-speed
intercept craft. The event highlighted how these systems can help the Navy
observe items of interest above and below the water, among other capabilities.
Digital Horizon capped a landmark year for unmanned maritime cooperation in the
region. Bahrain and Kuwait pledged to buy unmanned sea vessels by summer 2023,
while the U.S. Navy partnered with Israel, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia to conduct
exercises involving a mesh network—an interconnected group of sensors that
transmit real-time data, which is then fused together through data integration
and AI platforms to provide a clearer picture of the operating environment.
These exercises proved the Navy’s ability to establish an overlapping series of
radio devices with no central hub, providing efficient data routing essential to
monitoring activity in the area and maintaining AI operations. The Navy is
heavily invested in the unmanned sea drone program and aims to have over 100
systems in operation by this summer.
The increased presence of such systems has also created friction with Iran. In
late August, a ship affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
attempted to seize one of TF 59’s sensors. The U.S. Navy was able to thwart
their efforts, which CENTCOM characterized as illegal and unprofessional. Yet
the incident reinforced the importance of a layered and redundant maritime
awareness initiative in the Middle East.
Agile Combat Employment
In 2020, the U.S. Air Force commissioned a study on a potential shift in air
warfare tactics in response to the rise of drones, the increase in swarm
attacks, and the use of cruise and ballistic missiles, as seen in previous
Iranian operations throughout the Middle East. The study produced the Agile
Combat Employment (ACE) doctrine note, released in August 2022. ACE has enabled
the Air Force to operate more effectively with a reduced footprint by organizing
combat missions into small teams of aircraft that relocate frequently in order
to prevent enemies from accurately targeting these high-value assets.
More fully implementing ACE tactics, techniques, and procedures in 2023 will
help CENTCOM maximize its resources while continuing to deter Iran. Last year,
the Air Force conducted numerous ACE deployments, including a February 2022
exercise in which a unit assigned to Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia
responded to a simulated attack by evacuating personnel, equipment, and aircraft
to a partner nation within CENTCOM’s area of responsibility. The exercise
highlighted the unit’s ability to operate its KC-135 refueling aircraft in a
remote location with limited resources.
In September, the Air Force conducted a capstone event that included fighter,
refueling, cargo, and bomber aircraft normally based in the United States,
Europe, and Asia and operating out of the 332nd, 378th, 379th, and 386th Air
Expeditionary Wings. And in November, the Air Force had the opportunity to
implement ACE procedures in a real-world situation when Saudi intelligence
indicated Iran was preparing an imminent attack on the kingdom. Afterward,
Undersecretary of Defense Colin Kahl stated, “We think the combination of that
rapid intelligence sharing and repositioning [of military assets] is what backed
the Iranians off.”
These events gave the Air Force important opportunities to train for combat
operations on multiple fronts with different airframes. As the ACE concept
continues to mature in 2023, the military will no doubt gain additional
capabilities and efficiencies while furthering partner relations and
rapid-response efforts.
Integrated Air Defense
Tehran’s transfer of drones to Russia has not only supported Moscow’s war
against Ukraine, but also stands to bolster Iran’s defense industry and improve
its military capabilities. These transfers are already enabling Tehran to
evaluate the capabilities of its drones in a contested environment—information
it will use to refine its designs for future conflicts.
The proliferation of these capabilities comes as no surprise to Middle Eastern
actors, who know firsthand how Iran has used drones to penetrate their air
defense systems. This is part of the reason why integrating regional air
defenses has been a priority for the United States and its partners for years.
The Abraham Accords have breathed new life into this longstanding goal. Recent
efforts include the U.S.-Gulf Cooperation Council working groups that convened
in March 2022, underscoring the consensus on advancing integrated defense
initiatives and promoting a common vision for deterring the most pressing air,
missile, and maritime threats. In June, Israeli officials hinted at a regional
air defense alliance with Bahrain, Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United
Arab Emirates. Additional indications of potential progress include new air and
missile defense purchases made last year through the U.S. Foreign Military Sales
program, most notably by Egypt, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. To advance
such efforts in 2023, the National Defense Authorization Act directed the
Pentagon to report to Congress on a U.S. strategy for implementing an integrated
air and missile defense architecture with allies and partners in the Middle
East.
Conclusion
As noted, CENTCOM has developed a number of creative approaches to accomplish
the same core mission in the Middle East at reduced force levels. It will need
to continue innovating in 2023, using its limited resources to develop stronger
ties with regional partners while countering Russian and Chinese influence in
the region.
*Lt. Col. Nathan Olsen (USAF) is a 2022-23 Military Fellow at The Washington
Institute. The views expressed in this article represent the personal views of
the author and are not necessarily the views of the Department of Defense, the
Department of the Air Force, or Air University.
British people need policies not platitudes
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/January 24, 2023
The weekly spectacle of the clash between the British prime minister and the
leader of the opposition, squaring up to each other across the dispatch box
during Prime Minister’s Questions, evidently has some entertainment value.
However, it still leaves the wider public perplexed as to what either leader and
their party proposes in order to salvage the country from the deep political,
social and economic crisis it currently finds itself in. These encounters often
feel more like a session of cheap point-scoring than a clash between two
political gladiators.
Beyond the adversarial format, there is an unacknowledged message that there is
no quick fix for the challenges that confront the country. In the face of the
cost-of-living and housing crises, the threat (to some) of Scotland leaving the
union and the great inequalities in British society, what is required is a
vision and a raft of political and social reforms that will address the
fundamental structural flaws that perpetuate inequalities, the lack of social
mobility and the lack of agility to cope with a fast-moving world. It also
demands acknowledgement that there are no immediate benefits to Brexit, that the
public sector needs to be empowered and properly rewarded and that the private
sector, regardless of the important part that it plays in a modern economy, does
not have all the solutions and needs to be better regulated to protect
consumers.
Both the Conservative and the Labour leaders reached their lofty positions after
a relatively short time in politics, entering parliament only in 2015. Yet,
Rishi Sunak has the more difficult job because, since last October, when he
became 2022’s third Conservative prime minister, he has had to position himself
as not as erratic as Boris Johnson, not as detached from reality as Liz Truss
and not as irresponsible as both of them were in office. He started his recent
campaign to win the trust of the British people from the low point of 49 percent
of poll respondents expressing their intention to vote for Labour, while only 23
percent supported the Conservatives, and while nearly 50 percent expressed
dissatisfaction with the way he has been running the country. It is becoming
increasingly apparent that there is not much that Sunak and his government can
do to stop their party from losing the next general election, and that it is for
Labour to lose. Both leaders were off the mark in their new year speeches
outlining the direction they would like British politics to take. There was
nothing approaching a grand vision in the Tory leader’s armory — a mere
five-point plan that stated the obvious and sounded like a desperate attempt to
plug a hole in a dam that has already burst. Halving the rate of inflation,
growing the economy, reducing public debt, reducing National Health Service
waiting lists and ending the small-boat crisis are all commendable objectives,
but without details and concrete policies they amount to very little.
The Bank of England expects inflation to fall of its own accord, as a result of
developments in the international markets, but households will still be left
with huge energy bills and higher mortgage payments because interest rates will
remain high and the economy has not seen the end of these price increases. It is
a reflection of the failure not only to stop inflation earlier, but also to
reform the energy market and to properly regulate a property market that is now
out of control and out of reach for many people, while others are likely to see
their houses repossessed.
Both the NHS crisis and the small-boat crisis touch on two very sensitive issues
for the Conservative Party, especially its right wing. The British people
cherish their public health service and very few believe it to be safe in the
hands of a party of free marketeers whose instinct is to privatize all public
services, and Sunak is a Thatcherite through and through. Instead of supporting
nurses and ambulance drivers, who struggle with low remuneration and impossible
workloads due to lack of capacity, his government would rather curb their right
to strike.
Similarly, although most immigrants arriving at the shores of the UK by small
boat are indeed economic migrants, exploited by unscrupulous smugglers while
risking their lives, Sunak’s reactive response is more a case of deflecting
attention from his lack of an immigration policy fit for the post-Brexit era and
of merely placating the xenophobes in his party and the UK’s right-wing media.
Unlike his predecessors, Sunak comes across as one who is highly intelligent
but, as time goes by, he looks out of sorts and increasingly unable to serve the
interests of the wider public while at the same time keeping his party together.
Keir Starmer, on the other hand, is getting a better grip on being the leader of
the opposition. He has taken the party from one of its lowest ebbs after the
last general election and established himself and Labour as a viable
alternative. For his lack of charisma, he compensates with integrity and a sharp
legal mind. He has already built a very competent team around him and distanced
himself from the toxic Jeremy Corbyn era. Nevertheless, he has yet to present
any grand vision for a modern Britain.
Sunak looks out of sorts and increasingly unable to serve the interests of the
wider public while keeping his party together.
Disappointingly, for someone who was an ardent supporter of remaining in the EU,
he now speaks the language of Brexit, which puts a dent in his principled
politician image. Yet, there was enough in his new year speech to suggest
something of a radical streak in him, including his pledge that the country
under Labour would get 100 percent of its power generation from clean,
sustainable sources by 2030 and that he would establish a new, publicly owned
energy generation company; his opposition to anti-strike legislation; and his
intention to reverse the fortunes of the NHS by allowing public investment
without losing fiscal discipline.
Labour has already introduced a new industrial strategy to increase the UK’s
poor productivity rate in comparison to other G7 countries, concentrating on the
high-innovation industries. And above all, Starmer does not shy away from the
need for constitutional reforms of parliament, including the House of Lords, and
devolution of economic powers to local authorities, something which might make a
reality out of the Conservatives’ hollow promises of “leveling up.”
While the Tories are not oblivious to the uphill struggle they face to stand any
chance of winning the next general election while internally divided and with
little credibility among the electorate, Labour cannot afford to be complacent.
It is not enough for it to sit and watch the government fail and fall; rather,
the party must continue to build a convincing agenda, assure voters of its
competence and also embrace the principles of social justice and mobility.
*Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate fellow
of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the
international written and electronic media. Twitter: @YMekelberg