English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For August 16/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
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Bible Quotations For
today
The Fruitless Fig Tree Parable
Luke 13/06-09: “Then Jesus told this parable: ‘A man had a
fig tree planted in his vineyard; and he came looking for fruit on it and
found none. So he said to the gardener, “See here! For three years I have
come looking for fruit on this fig tree, and still I find none. Cut it down!
Why should it be wasting the soil?” He replied, “Sir, let it alone for one
more year, until I dig round it and put manure on it. If it bears fruit next
year, well and good; but if not, you can cut it down.” ’
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on August 15-16/2023
Lebanese media outlets deny
accusations of instigation in Kahale incident/Najia Houssari/Arab
News/August 15, 2023
Patriarch al-Rahi affirms the importance of judicial justice in Qornet El
Sawda incident
French letter to MPs requesting written answer to next president's
specifications
Report: Paris asks MPs to give answers regarding presidential file
Countdown to September: French embassy's letter to Lebanese MPs sets stage
for presidential discussions
Former BDL Governor's bank accounts secrecy exposed: Leaked decision alters
Salameh's fate
A school year in question: Will Lebanon's school gates open or remain
closed?
Foreign Ministry denounces terrorist attack in Shiraz: Aims to destabilize
Iran
Labneh scandal: Investigations uncover non-compliant dairy products in
Lebanon
New book reveals brutal toll of Lebanon's Great Famine/Syed Hamad Ali/The
National/August 15/2023
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on August 15-16/2023
Blast hits munitions depot
northeast of Damascus
Egypt, Jordan and Abbas slam Israel, say it's fueling violence against
Palestinians
Israeli raid in occupied West Bank kills 2 Palestinians
Israel may uproot ancient Christian mosaic near Armageddon. Where it could
go next sparks outcry
The rouble’s collapse could finally bring down Putin
Sweden grants $300 million worth of ammunition and spare parts to Ukraine
Officials Reveal Dreaded Russian Plot Against New Target in Europe
US would welcome any Iranian steps to slow nuclear program: Blinken
UK should admit role in Iran coup: Ex-FM
The Taliban are entrenched in Afghanistan after 2 years of rule. Women and
girls pay the price
Niger junta says open to talks as Putin, US stress peace
Sudan war ‘out of control,’ says UN
UN human rights chief warns Sudan chaos ripe for exploitation, calls for end
to impunity to violence
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
analysis & editorials from
miscellaneous sources published
on August 15-16/2023
US president bets on ‘Bidenomics’ in reelection bid/Kerry Boyd
Anderson/Arab News/August 15, 2023
After Jeddah summit, Ukraine’s peace formula only way forward, says Kyiv’s
FM Dmytro Kuleba/Noor Nugali/Arab News/August 15, 2023
Palestinians: Prime Minister Shtayyeh's Straight-Faced Lies to Official US
Delegations/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute./August 15, 2023
Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear “Asks”: What Do They Want, What Might They Get?/Simon
Henderson, David Schenker/The Washington Institute./Aug 15, 2023
Closing Washington’s China Gap with Middle East Partners/Michael Singh/The
Washington Institute./Aug 15, 2023
Massive Campaign Promoting Spanish Translation Of Iranian Supreme Leader
Khamenei's Memoir – Iran's Latest Strategy For Spreading Its Islamic
Revolution In Latin America/ Emmanuel Cadieux/MEMRI/August 15, 2023 |
Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News &
Editorials published on August
15-16/2023
Lebanese media outlets deny accusations of
instigation in Kahale incident
Najia Houssari/Arab News/August 15, 2023
BEIRUT: In his first media appearance following the Kahale incident, Hezbollah
chief Hassan Nasrallah blamed the media for what happened, referring to the
“incitement of a malicious TV channel,” being responsible for the bloodshed.
It is though Nasrallah was referring to MTV, a station backed by the
Lebanese Forces party, which he described as “malicious.”On Aug. 10, a Hezbollah
truck loaded with ammunition overturned at a curve on the Kahale Road linking
Beirut to Bekaa. Clashes subsequently took place between locals who approached
to see what had happened and Hezbollah gunmen, leaving a Hezbollah member dead
as well as a Kahale resident. The situation was diffused after the Lebanese
Armed Forces intervened and political parties called for calm. Kahale is a
majority Christian town with strong links with the Free Patriotic Movement, the
Kataeb Movement and the Lebanese Forces. An investigation into the incident is
being conducted by the military judiciary. Dr. Iman Alaywan, an academic
specializing in media ethics, told Arab News that while TV networks had
significant power in Lebanon, responsibility for pushing violence ultimately lay
with political parties. “TV channels still have an influence in our Arab
countries. The TV is no longer a mere screen at home, but it took the form of
breaking news on our phones, on X and on Facebook. Some people post the news on
social media, which increased the influence of the TV,” she said.
Alaywan added that “in a country that has no rules, the influence of social
media and media outlets … becomes more dangerous, especially (as) most media
outlets in Lebanon have political affiliations. “During the Kahale incident,
people would go on air without any regulations required by the channels’
administrations. The National Audiovisual Media Council didn’t do anything,
knowing that if it had done something, a political party would’ve accused it of
defending Hezbollah and vice versa.”Alaywan continued that “at the push of a
button, the involved parties put an end to the repercussions of the incident,
meaning that accusing media outlets of incitement isn’t true.”She explained:
“The media plays a role but it is not a driver. It is certain that people are
already against the illegal weapons, but the media cannot increase this tension
on its own, meaning that it cannot push people to carry their weapons and take
to the streets. Political parties do that.” Meanwhile
Nasrallah rejected claims made in Nidaa Al-Watan newspaper that the ammunition
on the overturned truck was bound for a Palestinian refugee camp as
“silly.”Bechara Charbel, editor-in-chief of the newspaper, told Arab News: “We
published the news, just like we publish any other news that we receive, and
Palestinian forces denied it.” He added: “What
Nasrallah did by accusing media outlets of inciting the Kahale incident is
rejected, as it is impossible for the media to be the reason behind what
happened. There are facts and material elements behind the incident. It involved
a truck, weapons and shooting, and the media can never cause strife. Of course,
the media’s perspective may be different than Hezbollah’s and this is normal,
but accusing it of strife is something illogical.
“We should look into the real reason why people gathered at the location of the
accident. The same thing happened during the Tayouneh clash last year and in the
town of Chouaya, where people protested against a rocket launcher that passed
through their village. Protesting is the result of a continuous and prolonged
situation.”One political observer told Arab News Nasrallah’s accusations against
the media were “an attempt to hide behind the army and the judiciary, close the
case, turn the page on the clash, stop talking about the truck file and close it
once and for all.”Nasrallah’s accusations were also rejected by senior political
figures. Former President Michel Sleiman said “the free media is being
accused.”He added: “Those who have a brave opinion are accused of espionage,
backstabbing, malice and incitement, but oppression is rejected.”The Lebanese
Forces said holding some media outlets accountable for what happened in Kahale
was “slanderous and untruthful.”The party added: “Media outlets follow up the
event, and what caused the Kahale incident was the presence of a truck loaded
with weapons and ammunition and surrounded by armed members, prompting an
understandable reaction by the residents. Then, all media outlets rushed to
cover the incident. This is the work nature of free journalism, unless Nasrallah
wants to turn Lebanon into another North Korea.” The Journalists for Freedom
Association said Nasrallah’s remarks were “an unacceptable encroachment on media
work and an implicit threat indicating improper intentions.” The association
added: “Are journalists required to ignore the incidents and not report facts to
avoid being accused of inflicting tensions and committing sinful acts, instead
of holding the real perpetrators accountable?”It also expressed concern over
“the recurrent phenomenon of attacking the free and responsible Lebanese media,
which has been among the first to practice freedom of expression and defend
public freedoms,” and called for “the protection of the media message,” adding
that “the press has always been a fourth authority and this shouldn’t be
forgotten.”
Patriarch al-Rahi affirms the importance of judicial
justice in Qornet El Sawda incident
LBCI/August 15/ 2023
On the occasion of the passing of a month since the Qornet El Sawda incident, in
which Haitham and Malek Tawk lost their lives, a mass was held at the Saint Saba
Cathedral in Bsharri. The service was presided over by the Maronite Patriarch
Cardinal Mar Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, who affirmed that a judicial justice free
from any political interference and any religious, sectarian, or doctrinal
"coloration" is the backbone of a nation's life and the safeguard of citizens'
rights and duties.
French letter to MPs requesting written answer to next president's
specifications
LBCI/August 15/ 2023
In a recent development, French sources have confirmed that as part of the
initiatives undertaken by French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian, Lebanese
parliamentary blocs and Change MPs have received a communication through the
French embassy in Beirut.
This communication seeks a written response regarding the agenda the upcoming
president is expected to operate under and the qualifications the future
president should possess to execute these agendas effectively. The communication
urged the parliamentary blocs and MPs to address this request before the end of
September. Sources have indicated that the purpose behind requesting written
responses is to ensure a higher level of commitment from the political forces
represented in the parliament. Notably, the French side intends to gather and
compile the responses into a summary, which will serve as the basis for
discussions with the political forces present in the parliament.
Report: Paris asks MPs to give answers regarding
presidential file
Naharnet/August 15/ 2023
Parliament has received an envelope from the French embassy in Beirut, MTV
reported on Tuesday. The envelope contained requests that MPs “answer questions
regarding their stances on the presidential file before the end of September,”
the TV network said.
French special presidential envoy for Lebanon Jean-Yves Le Drian is scheduled to
return to Lebanon in September.
Countdown to September: French embassy's letter to Lebanese
MPs sets stage for presidential discussions
LBCI/August 15/ 2023
With just 15 days remaining before September, which some have described as a
"presidential month," the presidential file is again in motion as French
Presidential envoy Le Drian returns to Beirut. As part of Le Drian's mission,
the French Embassy in Beirut dispatched letters to the leaders of parliamentary
blocs and MPs through the Lebanese Parliament, containing a set of points the
French side expects the MPs to address. According to LBCI's sources, these
points include the agenda of the incoming president, their action plan, and the
desired qualifications of the future president. The focus is on the vision of
each MP and bloc without delving into names. French sources confirmed to LBCI
that the embassy had informed the MPs about these letters about a week ago,
urging them to submit their written responses before the end of August, allowing
the French envoy to review them and establish a comprehensive outlook before his
return to Beirut for discussions. Moreover, the French sources noted that these
questions were formulated after the envoy's initial consultations with Lebanese
officials. The request for written responses aims to secure a more significant
commitment from the political forces represented in the Parliament. On
Wednesday, MPs are expected to receive the French letter to review it after
distribution by the General Secretariat of the Lebanese Parliament. Meanwhile,
most MPs refrain from commenting on the matter, opting to await full disclosure
and decision-making upon complete review. Upon receipt of the French document,
consultations will begin within the parliamentary blocs, as confirmed by more
than one MP to LBCI. The responses of the MPs are as important as the questions
themselves for the French side. These responses will significantly facilitate
the work of the French envoy and his upcoming consultative tour in September.
Former BDL Governor's bank accounts secrecy exposed: Leaked
decision alters Salameh's fate
LBCI/August 15/ 2023
The decision by the Special Investigation Committee, led by the acting Governor
of the Banque du Liban (BDL), Wassim Mansouri, came under secrecy.However, it
was leaked on the same day of its preparation. Following four days of US and
Western sanctions against former BDL Governor Riad Salameh, the Special
Investigation Committee was compelled to take action after the US Department of
the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) included Salameh on its
sanctions list. The committee unanimously resolved to freeze the accounts of
Salameh, whether held directly or indirectly, as well as the accounts of Nady,
his brother Raja, his advisor Mariane Howayek, and his Ukrainian friend Anna
Kozakova. Additionally, the committee decided to lift the secrecy on these
accounts for judicial review. The decision was communicated through the
committee's Secretary-General, Abdel Hafiz Mansour, to banks and financial
institutions in Lebanon for implementation. It was also transmitted to the
Public Prosecutor's Office and the High Banking Authority. This decision implies
that Salameh and his associates can no longer access their accounts, and their
banking cards will be frozen in compliance with US sanctions, except
salary-related accounts. What are the following stages of this decision? Banks
must lift the secrecy on the mentioned individuals' accounts, even if closed and
report the results to the BDL. If the Special Investigation Committee suspects
any dubious sources of funds or money laundering, it will seize the account.
Subsequently, the Public Prosecutor's Office will be requested to seize movable
and immovable assets the account holder owns. The Public Prosecutor's Office
will conduct the necessary investigations, and in case of proven guilt and
conviction, the seized funds will be confiscated for the benefit of the Lebanese
state. In case of acquittal, the frozen funds can be released for disposal.
Therefore, banks bear a responsibility in this regard. If they fail to report
any suspicion of money laundering, the individual in question could face
imprisonment for up to a year. If any individual is found to be complicit, they
could face imprisonment from three to seven years. In conclusion, it is worth
mentioning that Riad Salameh is expected to appear before the judiciary in
Beirut on August 29 to discuss Judge Charbel Abou Samra's decision regarding the
investigation case known as "Forry."
Will it be approved, or will a warrant for his arrest be issued?
A school year in question: Will Lebanon's school gates open
or remain closed?
LBCI/August 15/ 2023
A school year in question: Will Lebanon's school gates open or remain
closed?
With just a few weeks left until the scheduled opening of school gates for
students to embark on their new academic year, uncertainty looms over whether
these gates will swing open or remain closed. Like the overcast skies in
Lebanon, the image of the upcoming school year is similarly hazy.
The Education Ministry is technically prepared to launch the new academic year;
in logistical terms, official schools are also relatively prepared.
Approximately $14 million has been distributed to the funds of these schools as
part of a supporting initiative. However, the teachers are not fully ready to
start the new year. The association of teachers in official primary education
has staunchly advocated against opening official schools unless specific issues
are addressed. These issues include salary corrections within the budget,
ensuring that teacher salaries do not fall below $600, and obligating donor
countries, as per the government and Education Ministry, to provide incentives
of no less than $250 for teachers working both morning and afternoon shifts,
settling previous dues owed to teachers and schools, and restoring cooperative
contributions of state employees to their last value. These are just some of the
demands being voiced. The Education Minister has promptly sought the opinions of
representatives from the educational sector to document their demands for
presentation in the upcoming government session. This document will specifically
encompass the needs of various academic sectors from primary to secondary and
vocational levels. The minister will again urge the government to allocate
additional budgets from international donor agencies to ensure teacher income
and incentives. According to educational sources, this document will prioritize
two fundamental rights for teachers: a sufficient salary and healthcare
coverage.Data indicates that the start of the new academic year might be
delayed, at least for official schools, where registration was initially
supposed to begin on September 5th. However, it will likely be postponed until
the conclusion of the second round of official exams and the formulation of
solutions for the school year's challenges. For private schools, their academic
year is set to begin on schedule. Educational sources have confirmed to LBCI
that tuition fees for private schools will also be subject to government
assessment, aiming to establish regulations for fee increases. A committee of
representatives from educational institutions, teachers, and parent committees
will work to set these standards for tuition fees, though it has not yet
convened. As the government session approaches, the fate of the new school year
remains uncertain, leaving the final decision on opening school doors to the
"last minute."
Foreign Ministry denounces terrorist attack in Shiraz:
Aims to destabilize Iran
MTV/15 Aug 2023
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement today condemning the
"terrorist attack on the shrine of Shah Charag in Shiraz, Iran," expressing its
regret for "four civilian casualties and the injury of a number of others."The
Ministry offered the government and people of Iran its "deepest condolences,
especially to the families of the victims," wishing "a speedy recovery for the
injured." It deemed that "this criminal act, for which ISIS claimed
responsibility, aims to destabilize Iran," emphasizing "the importance and
necessity of coordinating regional and international efforts to combat and
eliminate terrorism."
Labneh scandal: Investigations uncover non-compliant dairy
products in Lebanon
LBCI/August 15/ 2023
Some varieties of dairy products sold in the market are not up to standard and
are packaged to trick and harm consumers. The focus of our investigation was in
northern Lebanon. In some shops and supermarkets, the phenomenon of selling
labneh (strained yogurt) in white plastic containers without any nutritional
information on the packaging has emerged. These products are often labeled as
"local" and sold at relatively low prices. We traced the source of this labneh
and the facilities producing it, leading us to purchase samples directly. Some
claim it is locally produced, while others suggest it is made from powdered
milk. On our journey, we also acquired samples of various cheeses.From there, we
proceeded directly to the laboratory to determine the contents of these unknown
dairy products and cheeses and to assess their adherence to standards. The
samples were transported and preserved through refrigeration. However, the test
results on the labneh samples were quite revealing. They indicated that the
labneh was made from a mixture of animal fat, vegetable oil, and
starch.Microbiological tests on the labneh samples also revealed that these
products did not meet the required specifications, and the analysis results did
not align with the limits set by Lebanese standards. Similarly, the cheese
samples underwent testing, revealing inconsistencies with Lebanese standards. It
is important to note that these results were obtained from just three samples in
the market, and there may be other varieties of non-compliant dairy products and
cheeses. The Economy Ministry and the judiciary are taking action by immediately
withdrawing these products from the market, suspending the implicated
facilities, and preventing the display of similar items without clear ingredient
listings. Given the current administrative challenges within the state,
municipal health departments must take on a role in ensuring constant
supervision to prevent consumer deception and safeguard public health.
Exploiting citizens' need for affordable products should cease immediately.
New book reveals brutal toll of Lebanon's Great Famine
Syed Hamad Ali/The National/August 15/2023
ßÊÇÈ ÌÏíÏ íßÔÝ ÇáÎÓÇÆÑ ÇáÝÇÏÍÉ áãÌÇÚÉ áÈäÇä ÇáßÈÑì/ÓíÏ ÍãÏ Úáí/ ÐÇ äÇÔíæäÇá / 15
ÂÈ / 2023
The famine of 1915-1918 has seen a resurgence of interest in recent years, and
is the subject of Dublin writer Tylor Brand's book
In central Beirut stands an eight-metre tall painted steel sculpture of a tree,
built by the artist Yazan Halwani in remembrance of the Great Famine of Mount
Lebanon, which lasted from 1915 to 1918. Unveiled in 2018, the Memory Tree's
branches are covered in Arabic calligraphy, quoting poets and writers who lived
through the First World War calamity, including Kahlil Gibran and Tawfiq Yusuf
Awwad.
Lebanon is today suffering multiple tragedies, from Beirut’s port explosion of
August 2020 – one of the largest non-nuclear blasts in human history – to a
crippling financial crisis that has depleted savings and significantly devalued
the Lebanese pound.
As difficult as it is to imagine, the century-old famine was even more severe
than these current troubles - having wiped out a sizeable portion of the
population and forced countless to migrate. Since its centenary a few years ago,
there has been a resurgence in interest relating to the famine, reinforced
perhaps by the country’s continuing issues. The latest to examine the subject is
Tylor Brand’s Famine Worlds: Life at the Edge of Suffering in Lebanon’s Great
War.
The reasons behind the deadly famine were complex, having taken place under an
unpopular Ottoman governor, Jamal Pasha, when the region faced a maritime
blockade by Allied powers to prevent the supply of food. Furthermore, there was
an invasion of locusts. Brand, an assistant professor of Middle Eastern Studies
at Trinity College, Dublin, is less interested in the causes and politics behind
the famine, and more in “how people experienced the crises”.
Brand previously resided in Beirut for six years, where he first began research
into the famine at the American University of Beirut. While digging around
historic accounts from that period, a more modern tragedy began to unfold as
Syrian refugees poured in.
Navigating the streets of modern-day Beirut, Brand recognised his own
“compassion fatigue” towards Syrian refugees in the writing of authors
describing the famine a century ago: “I saw their avoidance strategies in my own
rerouted journeys through the city, which over time began to favour streets
where I would be less likely to encounter certain persistent child beggars and
shoeshine boys.”
Later, while talking about the portrayal of death during the famine, he narrates
the experience of American professor Edward Nickoley. While resting at home one
day in 1917, Nickoley heard the “agonised moans” of a starving boy outside,
which leaves him “emotionally conflicted” as he is held back from helping by an
intangible fear.
He finally falls asleep without going out to help: “He woke the next morning to
the sight of a cart loading a corpse where the boy had been. Nickoley did not
act, and as a consequence, the collectors of the dead were forced to.”
The number who perished from the famine is not known for certain. According to
one source, 200,000 died in Lebanon, though other estimates vary. Brand cautions
against writers reducing suffering to a statistic, which he says inadvertently
converts each individual life to a tiny fraction of a percentage: “While death
understandably remains the morbid standard by which famines are measured, to
overemphasise death skews our understanding of famine to the extreme, worst
cases at their final, irreparable end.”
There is a chapter dedicated to survival tactics during the famine, such as
adding wild herbs and roots to supplement normal diet, while those who were
destitute “combed the trash heaps for potato and citrus peels, cactus pads,
scraps of bone and gristle, melon rinds, rotten food and other nominally edible,
if mostly indigestible, material.” Migration was another route towards survival,
from rural to urban zones, swelling the populations of large towns and cities
like Beirut, Tripoli and Zahle, “despite the obvious suffering in the streets”.
Famine Worlds is a meticulously researched account that will appeal to those
with a scholarly interest in the historical Levant. However, its academic tone
and forensic examination of the famine era is geared to a specific readership.
Those looking for a populist reading on the topic will have to look elsewhere.
Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published
on August 15-16/2023
Blast hits munitions depot northeast of Damascus
Agence France Presse/August 15/ 2023
A blast hit a munitions depot northeast of the Syrian capital Tuesday causing
casualties, a war monitor said, two days after a similar explosion hit
warehouses belonging to pro-Iran groups. The morning blast struck a depot
containing "missiles and ammunition" in an area northeast of Damascus that is
"dominated by Lebanon's Hezbollah", the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights
said. The Britain-based monitor, which has a wide network of sources inside
Syria, reported an unspecified number of casualties in the blast near the town
of Al-Ruhaiba. The cause of the explosion was not immediately clear. Syrian
state media did not immediately report the blast, which came just two days after
the Observatory reported explosions at missile warehouses held by pro-Iran
groups in a mountainous area west of the capital. "We don't know if it was from
an air strike or ground operation," Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman had told
AFP on Sunday. During more than a decade of war in Syria, neighboring Israel has
launched hundreds of air strikes on Syrian territory, primarily targeting
Iran-backed forces and Hezbollah fighters, as well as Syrian army positions.
Israel rarely comments on strikes it carries out on targets in Syria, but it has
repeatedly said it will not allow its arch foe Iran to expand its presence. With
Iranian as well as Russian support, the government of President Bashar al-Assad
has clawed back much of the territory it lost to rebels early in the conflict,
which broke out in 2011 and has pulled in foreign powers and global jihadists.
The war has killed more than 500,000 people, displaced millions and battered the
country's infrastructure and industry.
Egypt, Jordan and Abbas slam Israel, say it's fueling violence against
Palestinians
Associated Press/August 15/ 2023
The leaders of Egypt and Jordan, and the Palestinian president have slammed
Israel, saying it was fueling chaos and violence in east Jerusalem and the
occupied West Bank as bloodshed surges between Israel and Palestinians.The
condemnation came at the end of a three-way summit in the northern Egyptian city
of el-Alamein that brought together Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi,
Jordan's King Abdullah II and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. The three
accused Israel of a number of violations against Palestinians, including what
they said were incursions by Israeli soldiers at a contested holy site in east
Jerusalem and illegally withholding Palestinian money. The site, known to Jews
as the Temple Mount, is the holiest site in Judaism. Today, it is home to the
Al-Aqsa Mosque, the third-holiest site in Islam. The competing claims lie at the
heart of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Israel's government did not
immediately respond to the statement from the summit. The past months have seen
one of the deadliest periods in years in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. More
than 160 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire this year in the West
Bank and east Jerusalem, according to a tally by The Associated Press.
Palestinians have killed 29 people on the Israeli side during that time.
Israel's new ultra nationalist government, formed last December, has adopted a
hard-line approach to the Palestinians. In January, it decided to withhold $39
million from the Palestinian Authority and transfer the funds instead to a
compensation program for the families of Israeli victims of Palestinian militant
attacks. During violent flare ups, Egypt, which was the first Arab country to
establish diplomatic ties with Israel, has regularly acted as a peace broker
between the two sides. Israel captured the West Bank in the 1967 Mideast war,
along with the Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem. Palestinians seek those
territories for their hoped-for independent state.
Israeli raid in occupied West Bank kills 2 Palestinians
Associated Press/August 15/ 2023
Israeli forces shot and killed two Palestinians, including a 16-year-old, in a
raid in the occupied West Bank on Tuesday, Palestinian health officials said.
The Israeli military said troops came under fire and shot back. Israel has been
carrying out near-nightly raids in the West Bank since last year in response to
a spate of Palestinian attacks, what has fueled tensions in the region and sent
the death toll soaring. The violence comes amid a spike in attacks on
Palestinians by radical Jewish settlers, continued settlement expansion and as
Israel is led by a government composed of ultranationalist settlement
supporters. The Palestinian Health Ministry identified those killed as Qusay al-Walaji,
16, and Mohammed Nujoom, 25. The statement added that the raid took place in the
Jericho area, which has seen heavy fighting over the last 16 months. The Israeli
military said in its statement that Palestinians opened fire at forces operating
in the Aqabat Jabr refugee camp near Jericho and the forces fired back.
Israeli-Palestinian violence in the West Bank has surged to levels unseen in
nearly two decades, with more than 170 Palestinians killed by Israeli fire since
the start of 2023, according to a tally by The Associated Press. Israel says
most of those killed have been militants, but stone-throwing youths protesting
the raids and others not involved in the confrontations have also been killed.
At least 27 people have been killed in Palestinian attacks against Israelis
during that time. Israel says the raids are essential to dismantle militant
networks and thwart future attacks. The Palestinians see the violence as a
natural response to 56 years of occupation, including stepped-up settlement
construction by Israel's government and increased violence by Jewish settlers.
Israel captured the West Bank in the 1967 Mideast war, along with the Gaza Strip
and east Jerusalem. Palestinians seek those territories for their hoped-for
independent state.
Israel may uproot ancient Christian mosaic near Armageddon.
Where it could go next sparks outcry
TEL MEGIDDO, Israel (AP)/Tue, August 15, 2023
An ancient Christian mosaic bearing an early reference to Jesus as God is at the
center of a controversy that has riled archaeologists: Should the centuries-old
decorated floor, which is near what's believed to be the site of the prophesied
Armageddon, be uprooted and loaned to a U.S. museum that has been criticized for
past acquisition practices? Israeli officials are considering just that. The
proposed loan to the Museum of the Bible in Washington also underscores the
deepening ties between Israel and evangelical Christians in the U.S, whom Israel
has come to count on for political support, tourism dollars and other benefits.
The Megiddo Mosaic is from what is believed to be the world's earliest Christian
prayer hall that was located in a Roman-era village in northern Israel. It was
discovered by Israeli archaeologists in 2005 during a salvage excavation
conducted as part of the planned expansion of an Israeli prison. The prison sits
at a historic crossroads a mile south of Tel Megiddo on the cusp of the wide,
flat Jezreel Valley. The compound is ringed by a white steel fence topped with
barbed wire and is used for the detention of Palestinian security inmates.
Across a field strewn with cow-dung and potsherds, the palm-crowned site of a
Bronze and Iron Age city and ancient battles is where some Christians believe a
conclusive battle between good and evil will transpire at the end of days:
Armageddon. For some Christians, particularly evangelicals, this will be the
backdrop of the long-anticipated climax at the Second Coming, when divine wrath
will obliterate those who oppose God's kingdom; it serves as the focus of their
hopes for ultimate justice. The Israel Antiquities Authority said that it will
decide about the move in the coming weeks, following consultations with an
advisory body.
“There’s an entire process that academics and archaeologists are involved with,”
said IAA director Eli Eskozido. The organization said that moving the mosaic
from its original location was the best way to protect it from upcoming
construction at the prison.
Jeffrey Kloha, the Museum of the Bible’s chief curatorial officer, said a
decision on the loan would be made solely by the IAA. The museum “of course
would welcome the opportunity to educate our thousands of visitors on important
pieces of history such as this mosaic,” he told The Associated Press via email.
Several archaeologists and academics have voiced vociferous objections to the
notion of removing the Megiddo Mosaic from where it was found — and all the more
so to exhibit it at the Museum of the Bible. Cavan Concannon, a religion
professor at the University of Southern California, said the museum acts as a
“right-wing Christian nationalist Bible machine” with links to “other
institutions that promote white evangelical, Christian nationalism, Christian
Zionist forms.”“My worry is that this mosaic will lose its actual historical
context and be given an ideological context that continues to help the museum
tell its story,” he said. Others balk at the thought of moving the mosaic at all
before academic study is complete.
“It is seriously premature to move that mosaic," said Matthew Adams, director of
the Center for the Mediterranean World, an non-profit archaeological research
institute, who is involved in digs at Tel Megiddo and the abutting Roman
legionary camp of Legio. Asked about criticisms of the Washington museum’s
practices, Kloha said, “Major museums and distinguished institutions committed
to preserving history have had to grapple with cultural heritage issues,
particularly in recent years.” “To be clear: Museum of the Bible is proud to
have proactively launched research and a thorough review of items in its
collections,” he added. “The museum initiated returns where appropriate to
countries of origin without obligation to do so and encourages other
institutions to do the same.”Based on other finds found in the dig and the style
of the letters in the inscriptions, IAA archaeologists have dated the mosaic
floor to the third century — before the Roman Empire officially converted to
Christianity and when adherents were still persecuted. Nonetheless, one of the
donors who paid to decorate the ancient house of worship was a centurion serving
in the adjacent Roman legionary camp. The mosaic bears Greek inscriptions, among
them an offering “To God Jesus Christ.”
Since opening its doors in 2017, the Museum of the Bible has faced criticism
over its collecting practices and for promoting an evangelical Christian
political agenda. In 2018, it had to repatriate an ancient Mesopotamian tablet
looted from Iraq and admit that several of the Dead Sea Scroll fragments in its
collection were modern forgeries. American authorities also seized thousands of
clay tablets and other looted antiquities from the museum’s founder, Hobby Lobby
president and evangelical Christian Steve Green, and returned them to Iraq. The
mosaic loan would reinforce ties between Israel and the museum. The museum
sponsors two archaeological digs in Israel, has a gallery curated by the IAA.
Kloha said the museum also is planning a lecture series featuring IAA
archaeologists. Evangelical Christians, whose ranks have been growing worldwide,
have become some of Israel's most fervent supporters, donating large sums of
money and visiting the country as tourists and pilgrims. In the U.S., they also
lobby politicians in Congress in support of Israel. Evangelicals, who make up
more than a third of the world's estimated 2 billion Christians, say their
affinity for Israel stems from Christianity’s Jewish roots.
Some view the founding of Israel as fulfilling biblical prophecy, ushering in an
anticipated Messianic age when Jesus will return and Jews will either accept
Christianity or die. That tenet has generated unease among some Israelis, but
politicians have embraced evangelical support for the state nonetheless.
Since its discovery, the mosaic has remained buried beneath the grounds of the
Megiddo Prison. But in recent years the Israeli government has started advancing
a multi-year plan to move the prison from its current location and develop a
tourist site around the mosaic.
The Tel Megiddo archaeological site is already a major attraction for
evangelical Christians visiting the Holy Land. Busloads of pilgrims stop on
their way to or from the Galilee to see the ruins of a biblical city and pray at
the site where they believe the apocalypse will take place. Neither the IAA nor
the museum would discuss the exact terms of the loan proposal, but Eskozido
suggested something similar to the decade-long global tour of a Roman mosaic
found in the central Israeli city of Lod until Israel had completed a museum to
house it. Experts remain skeptical of uprooting the mosaic. “Once you take any
artifact outside of its archaeological context, it loses something, it loses a
sense of the space and the environment in which it was first excavated,” said
Candida Moss, a theology professor at University of Birmingham who co-wrote a
book about the Museum of the Bible. Rafi Greenberg, a professor of archaeology
at Tel Aviv University, said the proposal smacked of colonialism, where
historically dominant powers have extracted archaeological discoveries from
colonies. “Even if Israel doesn’t ever recognize itself as being a colony, it is
actually behaving like one, which I find odd,” he said. Greenberg said that
archaeological finds “should stay where they are and not be uprooted and taken
abroad to a different country and basically appropriated by a foreign power.”
The rouble’s collapse could finally bring down Putin
Matthew Lynn/The Telegraph/August 15, 2023
The long-awaited Ukrainian offensive has stalled. Only a small proportion of
occupied territory has been reclaimed. Western leaders may soon begin to lose
interest in a war that doesn’t seem to be going anywhere, and the “coup”
launched by renegade mercenaries appears to have fizzled out. Viewed from the
Kremlin, perhaps the war may look like one Vladimir Putin can endure, even if
the possibility of an easy victory has long since passed. But there is one big
problem. The rouble is in freefall. History tells us that a financial collapse
can often act as a catalyst for wider political and military implosion. Putin is
in far deeper trouble than it might seem. Even with additional Western weapons
and training, Ukraine’s armed forces have struggled to punch through the heavily
fortified Russian lines. Without much air cover, it is incredibly difficult. And
with the end of the summer approaching, there is little sign of a substantial
breach. The infamous Ukrainian “rasputitsa”, or “mud season”, will soon be upon
us, with heavy rain turning the ground into marshy bog. By winter, the Ukrainian
forces may have made little progress. The conflict is one of attrition, steadily
turning into another brutal, First World War-style battle fought along trenches
stretching for hundreds of miles. Putin may well believe he can win by playing
the long game, that time is on his side. He has more conscripts to call on, a
military-industrial complex that can deliver the weapons his generals need, and
the prospect of wavering Western resolve. In the United States, by far the
largest supplier of money and weapons to Kyiv, a fraught Presidential election
could mean the war gets pushed to one side. All Russia has to do is hold its
nerve, and it could yet prevail. Here’s the problem, however. The Russian
currency is in freefall. On Monday it dropped below the psychologically
important 100 to the dollar rate, its lowest level since the immediate aftermath
of the invasion. The rouble has fallen by 25pc against the dollar so far this
year, and by 23pc against the Chinese renminbi. The latter is surely its most
important trading partner right now. Meanwhile, the budget deficit has soared as
the cost of the war soars. The trade balance is slipping out of control as
exports plummet. Even worse, there are also signs of infighting among the
Russian policy establishment, with Putin’s economic adviser Maxim Oreshkin
blaming the central bank for the steady decline in the currency. The bank has
warned it might have to raise the cost of money to defend the exchange rate.
Open rows between the government and the monetary authorities are rarely a sign
that things are going well, and will only undermine confidence in the currency
any further. Measured over the last decade, the rouble has lost half its value,
with rapid decline this year. The Russian economy is gradually atrophying. It
may have come at a huge price, and the toll on industry and government budgets
has been huge, but Europe is managing to wean itself off Russian gas. Its most
lucrative export and its largest market has been closed off. India and China may
still be buying Russian energy, but not in the same quantities, and not at the
same prices. The impact of sanctions is finally starting to bite.
A few Western companies, perhaps most notably Unilever, may still be operating
in Russia, but most have now left, and their assets have been seized either by
the state, or sold off cheaply to “friends” of the regime. Putin’s gangster
system dominated by his cronies, and a few compliant oligarchs, can do “robber
capitalism”, but they are incapable of the real deal, and there is no space for
genuine entrepreneurs to move into the space vacated by global multinationals.
At the same time, China – Putin’s major global ally – is facing strong economic
headwinds. It is slipping into deflation following months of weak consumer
spending. Growth is undershooting expectations, while youth unemployment has
ballooned. This is not the moment to be propping up Russia. If anything,
President Xi will surely be content to turn the country into a subservient
supplier of raw materials to the Chinese economic machine. Add it all up, and
one point is clear. It has taken a while. But the Kremlin is starting to feel
real financial pressure for the first time since its troops marched into Ukraine
last year. History tells us that an economic collapse can trigger a domino
effect. The German hyper-inflation of the 1920s dominates the history books, but
prices were already rising at an annualised rate of 50pc-plus through 1918 as
the Kaiser’s government printed money on a vast scale to pay for the war. The
cost of the war in Vietnam took such a toll on even the vast resources of the US
that the Bretton Woods system collapsed and President Nixon was forced to
finally sever the last link between the dollar and gold. It may well be the same
in Russia. Its economy may have long defied the doomsayers, with the IMF
predicting in January that it would grow this year, and core inflation falling
drastically from an all-time high of 20.37pc in April 2022. But the collapsing
value of the rouble is a warning sign that Putin cannot afford to ignore.
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Sweden grants $300 million worth of ammunition and spare
parts to Ukraine
AFP/August 15, 2023
The Swedish government announced on Tuesday that it will provide Ukraine with
ammunition and spare parts worth over $300 million. Swedish Defense Minister
Paul Johnson stated that the military assistance package, the thirteenth of its
kind to Ukraine, will include ammunition and spare parts for weapon systems
previously donated by Stockholm to Kyiv. The value of this aid package is
approximately 3.4 billion Swedish Krona (313 million dollars). The ammunition
and parts are intended for infantry fighting vehicles of the "CV-90" model,
"Archers" artillery systems, and "Leopard 2" tanks. The package also includes
mine-clearing equipment and ammunition for air defense systems. Johnson
emphasized that these provisions are crucial to prevent Russia from gaining
aerial superiority in Ukraine. In January, Sweden announced its plan to send 50
of its armored combat vehicles to Ukraine. It also committed to sending
"Archers" artillery systems and anti-tank guided munitions "NLAW." The following
month, it revealed its intention to send around 10 "Leopard 2" tanks, along with
"Iris-T" and "Hawk" air defense missile systems. Johnson told reporters, "During
the spring and winter, we have sent substantial equipment packages, multiple
systems. We are now making sure that Ukrainians can use them for long-term
operational success." The government aims to hold a parliamentary vote on the
package on Thursday, potentially allowing it to move forward on Friday. Shortly
after the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022, Sweden abandoned its
policy of not supplying weapons to countries at war, pledging thousands of
anti-tank weapons of the "AT4" model. The combined
value of the first twelve military assistance packages is estimated at around 17
billion Swedish Krona (1.6 billion dollars). The Scandinavian nation has also
contributed about 5.2 billion Krona in humanitarian and civilian aid.
Officials Reveal Dreaded Russian Plot Against New Target in
Europe
Shannon Vavra/The Daily Beast/August 15, 2023
While Poland sends thousands of more troops and combat helicopters to its border
with Belarus to head off a possible conflict with Russia’s Wagner Group, a more
insidious threat is rankling top Polish officials, The Daily Beast has learned.
The Kremlin has kicked its influence arm targeting Poland into high gear in
recent days, with Russian and Belarusian operatives and officials, including
Russian President Vladimir Putin himself, pushing propaganda at Polish society
with messages that stoke skepticism about supporting Ukraine, a Polish official
told The Daily Beast in an exclusive interview.
The warning that Russia is working to destabilize Polish politics coincides with
Warsaw setting its election date this week for Oct. 15. As the thinking goes,
the Russian influence operation appears aimed at exacerbating divisions among
Polish people and stirring up rifts in society in advance of elections, all
while weakening Polish support for Kyiv as Russia continues its war in Ukraine.
“Popular support for Ukraine is very high in Poland for a society. It’s almost
unanimous when it comes to our view of conflict, who is the bad guy, who really
is responsible for everything that is going on, and why we have to take care of
the Ukrainian refugees,” the official said. But “there is also some element in
Polish society that is rather skeptical... I think the Russians might believe
that this kind of messaging might appeal to the skeptical audience in the runup
to the elections.”
While a majority of Polish society supports helping Ukraine in its fight to
stave off a Russian takeover, there are pockets that are less enthusiastic about
the amount of help going towards the Ukrainian cause. Approximately 65 percent
of Poles want Warsaw to keep supporting Ukraine, while roughly 34 percent want
Poland to be neutral, according to survey results from a May-June poll from the
Centre for East European and International Studies released early this month.But
the portion of those surveyed who said they support helping Ukraine has dwindled
in recent months, dropping nearly 20 points from 83 percent support in the same
survey last year.
Reuters/Alina Smutko
Russia sought to dampen Western support for aid to Ukraine since the early
months of the war. According to multiple intelligence memoranda obtained by The
Daily Beast last year, the Kremlin has been waging an online operation aimed at
cratering Western support and boosting Moscow’s war effort.
For Ukraine and the security of Europe, the stakes of the sweeping Russian
influence operation in Poland are high: Poland has served as a hub for funneling
Western aid to Ukraine. That has been key to countering Russian aggression,
which makes it an obvious target for Moscow to go after.
The End Times
One of Russia’s primary goals for influence schemes targeting Poland is to
dissolve popular support for Ukraine in Poland, Givi Gigitashvili, a researcher
focused on the Caucasus and Eastern Europe at the Atlantic Council’s Digital
Forensic Research Lab, told The Daily Beast.
The various prongs of the Kremlin-Belarus influence operation include multiple
social media platforms, blunt statements from leadership in both Moscow and
Minsk, and hybrid cloak-and-dagger operations meant to stoke political turmoil
in Poland. The issue of Poland hosting Ukrainian refugees has been top-of-mind
for the Kremlin’s influence operation. A slew of Polish-language Telegram
channels with telltale signs of a coordinated Kremlin operation have been
focused on amplifying anti-Ukrainian refugee and pro-Kremlin sentiment in Poland
in recent weeks, Gigitashvili told The Daily Beast. With channel names like
“News of the End Times” and “The last Frontier of the Republic of Poland — Q
POLSKA,” the posts are focused on painting Russians as heroes and liberators,
while casting the refugees as somehow aggressive. One post identified as part of
the network accuses the refugees of getting “everything for free,” while Poles
have to work hard to earn money. They are “trying to capitalize on some of the
existing vulnerabilities, or let's say sentiments, in the society, like for
instance… if Poland should continue accepting more refugees,” Gigitashvili said.
People hold banners and Ukrainian flags as they take part in a March for Victory
as they move from Krakow’s Main Square to the Russia’s Consulate on Feb. 24,
2023 in Krakow, Poland. Other prongs of the influence operation are more
blatant. The chairman of the State Duma of Russia alleged that Poland is growing
tired of helping “insatiable” Ukraine counter Russia this week.
“In the West, there is growing fatigue with both him and the insatiable Kyiv
regime. His ingratitude has become a dominant theme in European politics. This
is openly stated at the official level, not only in Britain but also in Poland,”
Vyacheslav Volodin said. “The fate of Washington and Brussels puppets always
ends the same way – they are disposed of. Zelensky is next in line.” And while
some of the ongoing Russian influence operation appears aimed at weakening
Warsaw’s support for Ukraine and stirring up pressure on Polish lawmakers
running for office, the Russian operation harbors aims to amplify divisions more
broadly in Poland as well, to create general instability, particularly as
elections approach, according to the Polish official. “We have to see it also in
the context of the Polish political situation, we’ll have parliamentary
elections in about two months, October 15. And both Lukashenko and Putin are
clearly aware of that,” the official said.
Flashpoint
Some goals of the ongoing Russian influence operation appear aimed at creating a
general environment and understanding that leans into a prolonged, ever-present
conflict or possibility of conflict, making way for possible mobilizations,
according to Warsaw.
Tensions have flared between Poland and Belarus in recent days, after Russian
Wagner mercenaries funneled into Belarus following a failed mutiny in Russia.
And with the lines of command between Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko
and Russian President Vladimir Putin blurrier than ever before, concerns have
grown in recent days that the two leaders might allow or lean on Wagner fighters
to provoke or attack Poland. Wagner fighters in the last several days have
marched closer and closer to Poland’s border, training with Belarusian soldiers,
according to Warsaw. Earlier last week, Belarusian helicopters violated Polish
airspace, earning a swift response from Poland, which sent combat helicopters to
the border and redeployed troops from the west of the country to prepare for
possible Belarusian or Wagner aggression. Poland’s prime minister warned early
this week that Wagner troops are headed towards the Suwalki Gap, a territory
between Poland, Lithuania, Belarus, and Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave,
threatening to create yet another military flashpoint in Europe. But the
apparent influence plot isn’t just about on-the-ground movements, and also
relies on a messaging component from Minsk, according to the Polish official who
spoke with The Daily Beast. Lukashenko has hinted in recent days, for instance,
that Wagner mercenaries are preparing to head towards Warsaw and Rzeszow, with
some news outlets reporting he delivered the assessment in a “joking” tone. But
making stuff up about Poland and possible confrontations is a classic move on
the part of Lukashenko and Putin to spin a false narrative, the Polish official
warned. “There is this perennial topic in Russia, that has to do with this
alleged desire by Poland to retake western Belarus. So they use Poland as a
scapegoat,” the Polish official said, adding it is necessary to take what
Lukashenko says with a massive grain of salt. “Lukashenko surely uses our
country to mobilize his political base in Belarus and to show his people that
there is this real threat from Poland.” In another turn, Putin warned in recent
days that Russia will soon “remind” Poland that its western territories were a
gift from Russia, by his telling. Other narratives that Russia may latch onto
moving forward include false claims that Poland has been seeking to occupy
Ukraine, claims Warsaw has said are false and aimed at roping in additional
countries into war or placing the blame on the West for the war in Ukraine. As
the thinking in Warsaw goes, these kinds of territorial messages are coordinated
in Russia and Belarus to foment tension in Poland. And after spreading rhetoric
about possible provocations, Belarus and Russia are currently working to
discredit Polish authorities that are attempting to simmer tensions, according
to Warsaw. “The operation of destabilizing the Polish border, controlled and
organized by Belarussian and Russian security services, is constantly
accompanied by disinformation and manipulation aimed at discrediting structures
defending the integrity of the Polish territory,” Deputy Minister-Coordinator of
Special Services Stanisław Żaryn said Thursday.
The propaganda is aimed at getting Warsaw to give up its efforts to defend the
border, Żaryn said. “Propaganda pressure exerted by Belarus and Russia in the
context of the artificial route of illegal migration to Poland is intended to
put pressure against PL and to inspire susceptible groups in Poland to force the
Polish Government to give up defending our border,” he said, referring to Polish
government officials’ concerns that part of the Belarusian and Russian
destabilization campaign includes an effort to force a migrant crisis on Poland.
Polish soldiers walk after a news conference, a week before the National Army
Day Parade, at Wesola military base in Warsaw, Poland, Aug. 8, 2023. The
accusations harken back to Belarus’ 2021 efforts to send migrants and refugees
from the Middle East to Poland to stir up pressures in Warsaw.
The sweeping influence operation against Poland isn’t just coming from inside
Belarus and Russia, though. Polish authorities have been working to wrap up a
Russian espionage network in Poland that has been focused on propaganda,
authorities say. The investigation is ongoing, The Daily Beast has learned.
“It’s not the first and surely not the last case of Russian espionage or
Belarusian espionage in Poland,” the Polish official told The Daily Beast.
Poland’s Internal Security Agency arrested two Russian citizens for distributing
Wagner propaganda in Krakow and Warsaw last week, the agency announced Monday.
In Moscow, the two men had prepared “over 3,000 propaganda materials promoting
Wagner Group,” the Internal Security Agency said Monday. They were communicating
with their handlers on a regular basis, and were expected to be paid 500,000
Russian rubles—about US$5,000—according to Polish authorities. Last week,
posters that claimed to be Wagner recruitment posters with QR codes appeared in
Warsaw, according to posts on Twitter or X. It was not immediately clear if they
were legitimately from Wagner or from other actors trying to stir fear inside
the country about Wagner mercenaries infiltrating Poland. Wagner Mercs May Soon
‘Infiltrate’ Poland, PM Warns
While the Russian influence operation is sweeping, it appears to be ineffective
and sloppy so far, and the majority of Poles likely will not be swayed toward
pro-Kremlin narratives, said Gigitashvili. But the influence network in Poland
is not poised to wind down anytime soon, and instead, looks to be growing.
“The number of these actors who are acting on behalf of the Kremlin or Belarus
is growing in Poland, unfortunately,” Gigitashvili said. Moving forward,
Belarusian or Russian actors working to destabilize Poland will likely resort to
hack-and-leak operations, Gigitashvili predicted—some of which have already
taken place. Hackers working for a Minsk- and Moscow-aligned team researchers
call “Ghostwriter” hacked into lawmakers’ emails and leaked documents and
emails.“We should expect cyber-attacks. We may also expect hack-and-leak
operations… Election interference is a long game.”
US would welcome any Iranian steps to slow nuclear
program: Blinken
Reuters/August 15, 2023
WASHINGTON: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Tuesday he could not
confirm a report that Iran slowed its pace of amassing near-weapons-grade
enriched uranium but would welcome any Iranian steps to de-escalate its “growing
nuclear threat.”
Blinken also told reporters that Iran moving US detainees into house arrest was
not related to any other aspect of US policy toward Iran, which he said
reflected a strategy of deterrence, pressure and diplomacy. On Thursday, sources
said Iran may free five detained US citizens as part of a deal to unfreeze $6
billion in Iranian funds in South Korea. Iran allowed four detained US citizens
to move into house arrest from prison. A fifth was already under home
confinement. The Wall Street Journal on Friday reported Iran had significantly
slowed the pace at which it was accumulating near-weapons-grade enriched uranium
and diluted some of its stockpile, moves that could help ease tensions with the
US and revive broader talks over Iran’s nuclear program. “Of course, we would
welcome any steps that Iran takes to actually deescalate the growing nuclear
threat that it has posed since the United States got out of the Iran nuclear
deal,” Blinken told a news conference, alluding to former US President Donald
Trump’s 2018 abandonment of that agreement. Under the
2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and six major
powers, Iran had agreed to curb its nuclear program to make it harder for it to
obtain an atomic weapon — an ambition it denies — in return for relief from US,
European Union and United Nations sanctions.
UK should admit role in Iran coup: Ex-FM
Arab News/August 15, 2023
David Owen: ‘By admitting we were wrong … we make reforms a little more likely’
LONDON: A former British foreign secretary has urged the government to admit the
UK’s leading role in ousting Iran’s last democratically elected leader in 1953,
The Guardian reported on Tuesday. “There are good reasons for acknowledging the
UK’s role with the US in overthrowing democratic developments,” David Owen, who
was foreign secretary from 1977 to 1979, told the newspaper. “By admitting we
were wrong and damaged steps that were developing towards a democratic Iran, we
make reforms a little more likely. “Women’s powerful
arguments for reform are being heard and respected because they are true to a
political spirit that has a long history in Iran. “The British would help their
cause and make it more likely to succeed and not be brushed aside if we admitted
past errors in 1953.”The release of declassified CIA material a decade ago
revealed that the ousting of elected Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mosadegh,
70 years ago this week, was a joint CIA-MI6 plot pushed for by the UK’s
then-Prime Minister Winston Churchill after Mosadegh nationalized British oil
interests. But the UK has retained its stance of not commenting on intelligence
operations, a fact that the makers of a new film charting the coup attribute for
their failure to find a distributor. Taghi Amirani, director of “Coup 53,” said:
“We’ve had the most bizarre and sinister attempts at supressing both the
contents of the film and its chances of getting distribution in many twisted
incidents worthy of (John) le Carre.”Richard Norton-Taylor, author of a book
about UK intelligence and the media, described Britain’s silence over its
involvement in the coup as “sad and absurd” given the US admission.
The Taliban are entrenched in Afghanistan after 2 years of rule. Women and girls
pay the price
KABUL, Afghanistan (AP)/August 15/ 2023
The Taliban have settled in as rulers of Afghanistan, two years after they
seized power as U.S. and NATO forces withdrew from the country following two
decades of war. The Taliban face no significant opposition that could topple
them. They have avoided internal divisions by falling in line behind their
ideologically unbending leader. They have kept a struggling economy afloat, in
part by holding investment talks with capital-rich regional countries, even as
the international community withholds formal recognition. They have improved
domestic security through crackdowns on armed groups such as the Islamic State,
and say they are fighting corruption and opium production. But it’s their slew
of bans on Afghan girls and women that dominated the Taliban’s second year in
charge. They barred them from parks, gyms, universities, and jobs at
nongovernmental groups and the United Nations – all in the space of a few months
– allegedly because they weren’t wearing proper hijab — the Islamic head
covering — or violated gender segregation rules. These orders followed a
previous ban, issued in the first year of Taliban rule, on girls going to school
beyond sixth grade.
Here is a closer look at Taliban rule and where they are headed.
WHY DID THEY EXCLUDE WOMEN FROM HIGHER EDUCATION, MOST JOBS AND PUBLIC SPACES?
The Taliban say they are committed to implementing their interpretation of
Islamic law, or Sharia, in Afghanistan. This leaves no space for anything they
think is foreign or secular, such as women working or studying. It’s what drove
them in the late 1990s, when they first seized power in Afghanistan, and it
propels them now, ever since they took control again on Aug. 15, 2021. Their
supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada has praised the changes imposed since the
takeover, claiming life improved for Afghan women after foreign troops left and
the hijab became mandatory again.
WHAT WAS THE RESPONSE TO THESE BANS?
Foreign governments, rights groups, and global bodies condemned the
restrictions. The U.N. said they were a major obstacle to the Taliban gaining
international recognition as the legitimate government of Afghanistan. Overseas
aid is drying up as major donors stop their funding, pulled in different
directions by other crises and worried their money might fall into Taliban
hands. The lack of funds, as well as the exclusion of Afghan women from
delivering essential humanitarian services, is hitting the population hard,
pushing more people into poverty.
WHAT ARE LIVING CONDITIONS LIKE IN AFGHANISTAN?
Nearly 80% of the previous, Western-backed Afghan government’s budget came from
the international community. That money — now largely cut off — financed
hospitals, schools, factories and government ministries. The COVID-19 pandemic,
medical shortages, climate change and malnutrition have made life more desperate
for Afghans. Aid agencies have stepped into the breach to provide basic services
like health care. Afghanistan is struggling with its third consecutive year of
drought-like conditions, the ongoing collapse in families’ income, and
restrictions on international banking. It’s also still suffering from decades of
war and natural disasters.
HOW IS THE ECONOMY DOING?
The World Bank said last month that the local currency, the afghani, gained
value against major currencies. Customers can withdraw more money from
individual deposits made before August 2021 and most civil servants are being
paid. The World Bank described revenue collection as “healthy” and said most
basic items remained available, although demand is low. The Taliban have held
investment talks with countries in the region, including China and Kazakhstan.
They want sanctions removed and billions of dollars in frozen funds to be
released, saying these measures will alleviate the suffering of Afghans. But the
international community will only take such steps once the Taliban take certain
actions, including lifting restrictions on women and girls.
HOW LIKELY ARE THE TALIBAN TO CHANGE DIRECTION?
It's largely up to the Taliban leader, Akhundzada. The cleric counts like-minded
government ministers and Islamic scholars among his circle. He is behind the
decrees on women and girls. His edicts, framed in the language of Islamic law,
are absolute. The bans will only be lifted if Akhundzada orders it. Some Taliban
figures have spoken out against the way decisions are made, and there has been
disagreement about the bans on women and girls. But the Taliban’s chief
spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid slammed these reports as propaganda. “The secret of
their success is that they are united,” Abdul Salam Zaeef, who served as the
Taliban envoy to Pakistan when they ruled Afghanistan in the 1990s, said. “If
someone expresses his opinion or his thoughts, it doesn't mean someone is
against the leadership or will go to another side," said Zaeef who spent several
years at the Guantanamo Bay detention center after the 2001 U.S. invasion.
"Disagreements are put in front of the emir (Akhundzada) and he decides. They
follow his word.”
WHAT ABOUT INTERNATIONAL RECOGNITION?
Aid officials say the Taliban view recognition as an entitlement, not something
to be negotiated. The officials also cite high-level meetings with powerful
states like China and Russia as signs that the Taliban are building bilateral
relations in their own way. Qatar’s prime minister met Akhundzada in the
southwestern Afghan city of Kandahar in June, the first-such publicly known
meeting between the supreme leader and a foreign official. Even though the
Taliban are officially isolated on the global stage, they appear to have enough
interactions and engagement for ties with countries to inch toward
normalization. Cooperation with the Taliban on narcotics, refugees and
counter-terrorism is of interest globally, including to the West. Countries like
China, Russia and neighboring Pakistan want an end to sanctions. “The political
interactions are such that no country in the region is thinking of bringing
Afghanistan under their power or control,” said Zaeef. He said the Taliban's
foreign outreach is hampered by blacklists preventing officials from traveling,
and by lacking common ground with the rest of the world.
WHAT OPPOSITION IS THERE TO THE TALIBAN?
There’s no armed or political opposition with enough domestic or foreign support
to topple the Taliban. A fighting force resisting Taliban rule from the Panjshir
Valley north of Kabul is being violently purged. Public protests are rare. The
Islamic State has struck high-profile targets in deadly bombings, including two
government ministries, but the militants lack fighters, money and other
resources to wage a major offensive against the Taliban.
Niger junta says open to talks as Putin, US stress peace
Reuters/August 16, 2023
NIAMEY: Niger’s junta on Tuesday said that it was open to talks to resolve a
regional crisis caused by last month’s military coup, while Russia and the
United States called for a peaceful resolution.
Western powers and democratic African governments have called for the coup
leaders to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum, who they have detained
since July 26, but the military leaders have refused and rejected attempts at
negotiation. West African army chiefs will meet on
Thursday and Friday in Ghana to prepare for a possible military intervention,
which the main regional bloc, the Economic Community of West African States
(ECOWAS), has threatened to launch if diplomacy fails.
Any military intervention could further destabilize the impoverished Sahel,
where an insurgency by groups linked to Al-Qaeda and Islamic State has displaced
millions over the past decade and fueled a hunger crisis.
“We are in a process of transition. We have explained the ins and outs,
reiterated our willingness to remain open and to talk to all parties, but we
have insisted on the need for the country to be independent,” said Ali Mahamane
Lamine Zeine, who was appointed prime minister by the military last week.
He spoke after a trip to meet Chad’s President Mahamat Deby, who staged his own
coup in 2021. Niger’s takeover is the seventh in West and Central Africa in
three years. The coup and its aftermath have sucked in
international powers with strategic interests in the region. Russian President
Vladimir Putin spoke to Mali’s military leader about the recent coup in
neighboring Niger on Tuesday, a call likely to cause concern among Western
governments that fear growing Russian influence in West Africa’s Sahel region.
Putin “stressed the importance of a peaceful resolution of the situation
for a more stable Sahel,” Mali’s interim President Assimi Goita said on social
media platform X, formerly known as Twitter. Pentagon
spokesperson Sabrina Singh said US President Joe Biden’s administration was
committed to a diplomatic resolution, and said Niger was a partner it did not
want to lose.
Singh declined to call the takeover a coup but said it “certainly looks like an
attempted coup.”Meanwhile, ECOWAS has the support of Central Africa’s regional
bloc ECCAS in efforts to overturn Niger’s coup and restore constitutional order,
Nigerian President and ECOWAS Chairman Bola Tinubu said on Tuesday.
“I understand the fear of our people on any form of military action. We
are working to keep the sanctions in place and we are following them to the
letter,” he said in a statement. Russian influence in
West Africa has grown while the West’s has waned since a string of coups began.
Military leaders in Mali and Burkina Faso have kicked out troops from former
colonial power France and strengthened ties with Moscow.
In Mali, the army government also brought in mercenaries from Russia’s
Wagner group, who have been accused of executing civilians and committing other
grave human rights abuses.
Under Bazoum, Niger remained a Western ally. The US, France, Germany and Italy
have troops stationed there under agreements with the now-deposed civilian
government. Putin has called for a return to
constitutional order in Niger, while Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin welcomed the
army takeover and offered his services. Support for
Russia has appeared to surge in Niger since the coup, with junta supporters
waving Russian flags at rallies and calling for France to disengage.
Niger’s coup leaders have revoked a raft of military agreements with
France, although Paris shrugged this off by saying that it did not recognize
them as legitimate authorities.
Sudan war ‘out of control,’ says UN
Arab News/August 15, 2023
JEDDAH: More than million people have fled Sudan to neighboring states and those
who remain are running out of food and dying from lack of healthcare, the UN and
humanitarian groups said on Tuesday. In a joint appeal, the heads of 20 global
organisations said more than six million Sudanese people were “one step away
from famine.”Four months of fighting between the Sudanese regular army and the
paramilitary Rapid Support Forces havedevastated the capital Khartoum and
threatened to plunge Sudan into a protracted civil war. “Time is running out for
farmers to plant the crops that will feed them and their neighbors. Medical
supplies are scarce. The situation is spiralling out of control,” UN agencies
said. The war has forced 1,017,449 people to cross from Sudan into neighboring
countries, many already struggling with the impact of conflicts or economic
crises, and those displaced within Sudan are estimated to number 3,433,025. The
millions who remain have faced rampant looting and long cuts in power,
communications and water supplies. “The remains of many of those killed have not
been collected, identified or buried but the UN estimates that more than 4,000
have been killed,” said Elizabeth Throssell, spokesperson for the High
Commissioner for Human Rights. Swaths of the country
have been suffering from an electricity blackout since Sunday that has also
taken mobile networks offline. Seasonal rain that increases the risk of
water-borne diseases has destroyed or damaged the homes of up to 13,500 people.
The UN voiced particular concern for women and girls caught up in the conflict,
amid “shocking incidents of sexual violence, including rape.”Laila Baker of the
UN Population Fund said: “We’ve seen an increase of more than 900 percent in the
conflict areas of gender-based violence. Those women are incredibly at risk.”
The victims of such violence, who in a number of cases end up pregnant, find
themselves with little or no access to assistance and care, she said. UN rights
chief Volker Turk said his office had received credible reports of 32 incidents
of sexual violence against 73 victims. “This includes at least 28 incidents of
rape. Men in RSF uniform were implicated in at least 19 incidents as
perpetrators. The actual number of cases is probably much higher.” The aid
agencies decried the lackluster international response to the Sudan crisis, with
two appeals for aid just over 27 percent funded. “Please change that,” they
said. “There is no excuse for waiting.”
UN human rights chief warns Sudan chaos ripe for
exploitation, calls for end to impunity to violence
Arab News/August 15, 2023
NEW YORK: The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk has expressed
grave concerns that other “opportunistic” armed groups and militias could
exploit the current instability in Sudan, underlined by impunity, to escalate
violence even further. Turk decried the “disastrous,
senseless” war “borne out of a wanton drive for power” that has ravaged the
country, resulting in thousands of deaths, the destruction of homes, schools,
hospitals, and vital services, widespread displacement, and sexual violence that
may amount to war crimes. As the ongoing conflict enters its fifth month, Turk
said his office has strong grounds to believe that the Sudan Armed Forces and
the Rapid Support Forces have committed grave violations of international law,
and must be held accountable. The regions worst
affected by the fighting include Khartoum and its environs, El Obeid in North
Kordofan and areas of the Darfur region, particularly West Darfur, where
civilians have been attacked based on their ethnicity.
While the exact death toll remains elusive due to intense fighting and
challenges in collecting and identifying remains, the UN estimates that more
than 4,000 people have so far been killed, including hundreds of civilians, 28
humanitarian and health workers, and 435 children. The actual number of
casualties is likely to be much higher. “Many
civilians were reportedly killed in the Khartoum area as they resisted attempts
by the RSF to loot their houses or rape female family members,” Turk said,
adding that others fell victim to crossfire or shelling that hit their
homes.West Darfur’s El Geneina people were killed both inside their homes and as
they were attempting to flee on the road to Chad.
The rise in sexual violence is equally alarming, said Turk.
He said: “My office has also received credible reports of 32 incidents of sexual
violence against 73 victims as of Aug. 2. This includes at least 28 incidents of
rape. Men in RSF uniform were implicated in at least 19 incidents as
perpetrators. The actual number of cases is likely much higher.”
Turk has repeatedly urged officials in Sudan to issue clear instructions to all
those under their command that there is zero tolerance for sexual violence.
Beyond violence, both parties in Sudan have arbitrarily detained hundreds
and held them incommunicado, with more than 500 political activists and human
rights defenders, including 24 women, missing. These detainees often endure
maltreatment and, in some instances, torture. The toll of the conflict also
manifests in economic collapse, food insecurity, and a crumbling healthcare
system, said Turk. Over 20.3 million people face food insecurity, with 700,000
children at risk of malnutrition. The Sudanese health system is on the brink of
collapse, as 100 out of 130 hospitals in Khartoum have ceased operation.
Human displacement also continues with over 4 million people displaced
due to the ongoing conflict. The dire living conditions in refugee camps and
internally displaced persons sites exacerbate vulnerabilities, especially for
women and girls susceptible to sexual abuse, according to Turk. The UN human
rights chief said: “The parties to the conflict must immediately stop the
fighting, resume political talks, (and) comply with their legal obligations
under international humanitarian law. “They must investigate all the violations
of international humanitarian law and international human rights law that have
occurred during the conflict (and) hold those responsible accountable. “I also
urge the international community to increase political and economic pressure on
the parties to the conflict to stop immediately the fighting, and increase
financial support for humanitarian agencies responding to the humanitarian
crisis caused by the conflict, including displacement and refugee crises.”
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from
miscellaneous sources published
on August 15-16/2023
US president bets on ‘Bidenomics’ in reelection bid
Kerry Boyd Anderson/Arab News/August 15, 2023
This summer, US President Joe Biden and his advisers have started promoting
“Bidenomics” as a key message in his reelection campaign. It is unclear if the
concept will gain traction among voters; if it does, it presents both
opportunity and risk for Biden.
Bidenomics is a relatively new term that few Americans so far understand. To
some extent, it is a grab bag of economic goodies — Biden’s efforts to claim
credit for anything good in the economy. That is hardly unusual, as most
presidents try to claim credit for economic progress while trying to avoid blame
for economic problems.
However, the concept of Bidenomics is starting to take shape. Biden and his team
have repeatedly emphasized building the economy “from the middle out and the
bottom up.” This is a direct and intentional rejection of the classic Republican
idea of trickle-down economics.
Republican economic policy has often assumed that easing regulations and taxes
on wealthy Americans and large corporations will help drive investment in the
broader economy and thus eventually benefit the middle and lower classes. The
Trump administration’s major legislative achievement — reforming the tax system
— is an example, as the largest and most permanent tax cuts went to corporations
and wealthy individuals.
Democrats have long criticized this economic approach and Bidenomics explicitly
takes a different approach. It is focused on using government investment in
infrastructure, research and development, and expanding the social safety net in
order to boost economic growth, including both public and private investment.
Biden is willing to increase taxes on large corporations and the wealthy to help
fund public investment, while avoiding tax increases for the middle class.
Most presidents try to claim credit for economic progress while trying to avoid
blame for economic problems
Bidenomics focuses public investment on areas that the president sees as crucial
to generating economic growth that benefits most Americans. Key areas include
infrastructure, semiconductors and clean energy. The White House has taken steps
to try to ensure that much of that investment stays within the US, hoping to
increase manufacturing jobs for Americans and reduce the country’s dependence on
foreign supply chains.
Other key elements of Bidenomics include “empowering workers” through public
investment in various types of education and strengthening unions, as well as
steps to boost competition, including boosting efforts to enforce antitrust
rules.
Biden also took a lesson from his time as vice president, when the US was trying
to recover from the Great Recession. He believes that the government should have
acted more quickly and with more money to fuel the recovery. In the wake of the
COVID-19 crisis, he preferred to go big, including additional stimulus through
the American Rescue Plan. Despite warnings that such measures could contribute
to inflation, Biden chose to use fiscal tools to fuel recovery while leaving
monetary measures to control inflation to the Fed.
Biden and his team believe that Bidenomics worked. Since the pandemic, the US
has experienced faster economic recovery than its peer economies. In the second
quarter of this year, gross domestic product growth was 2.4 percent, exceeding
many expectations. The inflation rate has declined and core inflation is lower
than in most other advanced economies. Unemployment is about 3.5 percent, a
historically low rate. The economy continues to create new jobs. Crucially,
wages began to rise faster than prices in the spring for the first time in two
years. The White House argues that key legislative accomplishments — notably,
the 2021 American Rescue Plan, the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act,
and the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act — have played major roles in driving
economic and job growth.
Biden chose to use fiscal tools to fuel recovery while leaving monetary measures
to control inflation to the Fed
There is a lot of truth in Biden’s claims about economic progress, but there is
also exaggeration and selective use of data, as is typical. Republicans
criticize Biden’s claims and economic policies, arguing that his policies expand
government’s role in the economy and fuel inflation.
However, what will really shape the 2024 election is how voters feel about the
economy. The accuracy of statistics and economic claims has little to do with
electoral outcomes, while public perceptions play a major role. Voters are not
as driven by their wallets as many political analysts claim, but it is one
important factor. Inflation is often the most poignant economic problem for
voters; although the annual inflation rate has declined to 3.2 percent,
Americans were shocked by the highest inflation in decades — hitting 9.1 percent
in 2022 — and still feel the effects of higher prices.
The experience of inflation and other factors has led to very low approval
ratings for Biden’s management of the economy. Some polls have shown a gradual
improvement in public perceptions of the economy, but approval of Biden’s
economic management remained around 37 percent in recent polls. A recent CNN
poll also found that 51 percent of Americans believe the economy is getting
worse. While economic indicators clearly suggest an improving economy with many
positive elements, some of that improvement is recent and many Americans are not
yet feeling it. Democrats also have to fight against a long-standing perception
among many Americans that Republicans perform better on economic issues.
By promoting Bidenomics, the president is placing a big bet on economic
outcomes, even though any president has limited control over the economy. If
Americans feel significantly better about the economy by November 2024,
Bidenomics could play a major role in helping Biden win reelection. However, if
Americans’ attitudes toward the economy do not improve — let alone if they
worsen — the Republican Party will be sure to benefit.
**Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than
18 years of experience as a professional analyst of international security
issues and Middle East political and business risk. Her previous positions
include deputy director for advisory with Oxford Analytica. Twitter:
@KBAresearch
After Jeddah summit, Ukraine’s peace formula only way
forward, says Kyiv’s FM Dmytro Kuleba
Noor Nugali/Arab News/August 15, 2023
Ukraine’s top diplomat says the world is moving towards a global peace summit
Commends Saudi Arabia’s “constructive role in international politics”
Says the Global South has suffered as a result of Russian aggression
RIYADH: The world is moving closer to a peace summit, but an end to the conflict
with Russia can only be achieved if Ukraine’s peace plan is adhered to, Dmytro
Kuleba, the Ukrainian minister of foreign affairs, has told Arab News.
In an exclusive interview, conducted via Zoom, Kuleba said it was “premature” to
discuss specific locations or dates for a global summit, but said the dialogue
is moving in the right direction — provided the Ukrainian peace formula is
implemented.
Senior officials from 42 countries met in Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah on August 5 and
6 in an attempt to draft key principles on ending war with Russia. The summit
followed a similar forum in Copenhagen, Denmark, earlier this summer.
“Following the meeting in Jeddah, I can conclude that we’re definitely moving in
that direction at a good pace and this is going to happen,” Kuleba said. “We are
working hard with Saudi Arabia and other countries involved in arranging this
summit, proposed by Ukraine.
“And the deliverable of this summit is very clear — that the peace formula of
Ukraine, which is a comprehensive way to solve the conflict, will deliver, and
all of the issues covered by this peace formula will begin to be implemented.
“This is the only way forward based on the UN Charter and international law.”
Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, has said he is hopeful that the
diplomatic initiative will lead to a peace summit of world leaders in the autumn
to endorse the principles, based on his own 10-point formula for a settlement.
He first presented the blueprint at the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, last
November.
“Following the meeting in Jeddah, I can conclude that we’re definitely moving in
that direction at a good pace and this is going to happen,” Kuleba said. (SPA)
It covered nuclear safety, food and energy security, the release of prisoners,
the restoration of territory, the cessation of hostilities, accountability for
war crimes, environmental safety, the prevention of future aggression, and
confirmation of war’s end.
Maria Zakharova, Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson, recently commented that
while Moscow appreciates “mediating and humanitarian initiatives” by friends of
Russia, she reiterated her country’s rejection of Ukraine’s “peace formula.”
“By promoting Zelensky’s formula, the Kyiv regime and the West are attempting to
belittle the great importance of peace initiatives proposed by other countries
and to monopolize the right to their advancement,” she told a press conference
last week.
The recently concluded Jeddah meeting ended without a closing press conference
or an official Saudi statement. However, the Kingdom has to date maintained its
desire to serve as a neutral intermediary between Russia and Ukraine.
At the Copenhagen meeting in June, Ukraine’s demand that all Russian troops
withdraw before peace talks could start was seen by some participating countries
as an unrealistic demand.
Russia, which controls swathes of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and
parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, has said any negotiations need to take into
account the “new territorial realities.”
Asked whether this means the positions of the two nations are irreconcilable,
Kuleba said Ukraine had “truth” on its side.
“From all perspectives, legal and political and economic and also historical,
Russia must respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity within its internationally
recognized borders,” he said.
“Its borders were recognized by Russia, as well as by the rest of the world,
including Saudi Arabia and other countries. So the difference between our
position and the position of Russia is that our position is legitimate and the
Russian position is illegitimate.
Assistant Editor in Chief of Arab News Noor Nugali spoke with Ukraine’s Dmytro
Kuleba in an exclusive interview. (AN photo)
“And the truth in this case is on our side. So why should we not be pursuing the
truth?”
Commenting on the Jeddah summit, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had said “any
attempt to promote a peaceful settlement deserves a positive evaluation.”
Asked whether this was a sign that Russia might be open to alternative avenues
to peace, Kuleba said Kyiv does not trust Moscow’s words — only actions.
“I think it would be premature and naive to make any conclusions from one
comment of the spokesperson of President Putin,” said Kuleba.
“On different occasions, not only him but also other senior Russian officials
have stated that the Russian aggression against Ukraine will continue until
Russia meets the objectives of this aggression.
“So, we do not trust Russian words. We want to see specific Russian actions and
deeds on the ground to draw a conclusion that they are willing to restore peace.
As of now, this does not seem to be the case.”
Arab News reached out to the Russian Embassy for comment, but was unsuccessful.
Kuleba acknowledged the prominent role Saudi Arabia has played in efforts to
resolve the Ukraine crisis, starting from the prisoner swap it brokered in
September 2022 to Zelensky’s address to the Arab League in Jeddah in May this
year and, most recently, as the host of this month’s summit.
“I believe Saudi Arabia has been playing a very constructive role in the matters
related to the Russian aggression against Ukraine,” he said.
"When Russia unlawfully attacked Ukraine and installed the blockade of Ukrainian
sea export of grain. This was illegal and unlawful, by definition,” Kuleba said.
(AP)
“We understand that your leadership has recognized an opportunity for Saudi
Arabia to play a truly global, constructive role in international politics.
“And I can only commend the vision and the leadership of your country in these
matters because to solve global problems, you need global ambition. Saudi Arabia
has clearly demonstrated that it has the ambition.
“As a result, it has also demonstrated it has the capacity to deliver, which can
only be welcomed and commended.”
Ukrainian officials have lately shifted their diplomatic emphasis toward
building support beyond Kyiv’s core Western backers by reaching out to the
countries of the Global South.
Commenting on why Ukraine suddenly views the Global South as such an important
constituency, Kuleba said many of these nations had suffered as a result of
Russia’s aggression.
“Although the Russian aggression against Ukraine takes place in Europe, it has
global repercussions and it’s the countries of the Middle East, of Asia, of
Africa, of South America, who feel the consequences of the Russian aggression,”
said Kuleba.
“This is why it is important to have all of these countries on board in a joint
effort to end this conflict, to ease pressure on our economies, on global food
security and, of course, to restore respect for international law, which is in
everyone’s interest.”
Asked whether he believes nations like Turkiye, India, Indonesia, South Africa,
Brazil and even China have sufficient incentives or influence to convince the
Kremlin to change course, Kuleba said it would be a gradual process, but one
that is moving in the right direction.
“If I look at the list of the countries who took part in the similar meeting of
national security advisers and representatives of foreign ministries in
Copenhagen slightly more than a month ago, and then at the follow-up meeting in
Jeddah, I see that the number of countries participating is growing — including
China, who joined the format for the first time — which speaks for the very
simple fact that they do see value and their incentive is growing,” he said.
“It doesn’t happen in a day but the overall dynamics of this process is
positive. And I would like to once again thank Saudi Arabia for playing a very
constructive role in helping other countries to join the process and to realize
their interests in this process.”
Kuleba said it was the collective voice of the Global South, as opposed to
individual nations, that would ultimately bring Russia to the table.
(Saudi Arabia) has the capacity to deliver, which can only be welcomed and
commended, Kuleba said. (AFP)
“If you take China, they enjoy a special relationship with Russia,” he said. “If
you take Turkiye, they have a very deep relationship with Russia. If you take
Saudi Arabia, you can say the same.
“So, perhaps every country acting on its own doesn’t have a sufficient amount of
energy that could make Russia change its position. But if you take all of these
countries together, the cumulative effect on Russia can be a game changer.
“And that is the purpose, to bring together everyone who is willing to change
the situation for the good. Because together we can stop this war, we can
implement a peace formula and restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity, in the
interests of the entire international community.”
There are nevertheless concerns among countries of the Global South about
jeopardizing ties with Russia by siding with Ukraine. Indeed, even NATO itself
seems unsure of how far to go in antagonizing Russia, refusing to offer a clear
path for Ukraine to join the military alliance.
“I think these are two separate tracks,” said Kuleba. “Ukraine is steadily
moving toward its integration into the EU and NATO for economic and security
reasons. This is a very natural choice for our country, given our history and
geography.
“Countries of the Global South have lost a lot as a result of the Russian
aggression against our country. But this has nothing to do with our aspirations
to become members of the EU or NATO.
“What countries of Asia, Africa, Middle East and South America want to see are
stable global food markets, prospects of trade with Ukraine, and tapping the
full potential of education for their students in Ukraine. All of these
functioned perfectly before Russia attacked.
“So, I don’t have the impression that the countries of the world see the
situation through the prism of Ukraine’s regional interests, which are about
close integration with the EU and NATO.”
Ukraine appears to view Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative
in July as an issue with which it could possibly rally support from the Global
South.
Ukraine and Russia are among the world’s top grain exporters. The grain deal was
brokered by the UN and Turkiye in July 2022 to help combat a global food crisis
that had been worsened by the invasion.
Ukraine’s army is attempting to regain swathes of territory, including Crimea
and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, which Russia now controls. (AP)
Russia said not enough grain had reached poor countries under the terms of the
deal — a claim disputed by the UN. Moscow also felt that the part of the deal
allowing for greater Russian agricultural exports was not being honored by the
West owing to sanctions.
Responding to the Kremlin’s argument, Kuleba said Russia has no right to demand
preferential terms amid a crisis of its own making.
“We have to go back to February 2022, when Russia unlawfully attacked Ukraine
and installed the blockade of Ukrainian sea export of grain. This was illegal
and unlawful, by definition,” he said.
“So, when Russia tries to bargain something for itself as a result of its own
illegal actions, we cannot talk about accommodating Russia’s legitimate concerns
and interests under these circumstances.
“Russia created the problem, and it has to make every effort to solve this
problem, instead of trying to keep the blockade of Ukrainian ports, and while
trying to secure its own interests in global affairs. This is just not how it
works.
“If this kind of Russian behavior is tolerated, then other actors across the
globe will be tempted to follow suit, to create problems and then try to solve
these problems at the expense of others instead of just removing the initial
reason — the fundamental reason for the problems that we all are facing.”
• Noor Nugali is the assistant editor in chief of Arab News
Palestinians: Prime Minister Shtayyeh's Straight-Faced
Lies to Official US Delegations
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute./August 15, 2023
Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh has shown that he can
include two lies in one short sentence.
During the meeting [with a US Democratic delegation], Shtayyeh blamed Israel for
the fact that the Palestinians have not held general elections for nearly two
decades. He also accused Israel of "attempting to combat the Palestinian
democracy." Shtayyeh's remarks, reported by the Palestinians' official news
agency Wafa, show that Palestinian leaders apparently think that many
foreigners, especially Americans, are stupid enough to believe anything that
comes out of their mouths.
Shtayyeh lied both when he claimed that Israel was responsible for obstructing
Palestinian elections and that Palestinians living in the West Bank and Gaza
Strip enjoy democracy.
"The truth is Abbas canceled the elections because all credible public opinion
polls showed that this month's legislative vote would have decimated the ruling
clique of his Fatah party and ushered in a whole new politician configuration.
This would have seen Abbas's rivals Marwan Barghouti and Nasser Al-Qidwah emerge
as the new leaders of Fatah. If this scenario were to occur, a whole class of
millionaires who turned the Palestinian struggle into a lucrative industry,
generously funded by 'donor countries,' was at risk of losing everything. ....
There is nothing that Abbas can say or do at this point to restore the people's
confidence in his authority. Arguably, he never had their confidence in the
first place. By canceling the elections, he has crossed a red line, thus placing
himself and a few others around him as enemies of the Palestinian people, their
democratic aspirations, and their hope for a better future." — Ramzy Baroud,
editor of The Palestine Chronicle and author of five books,, arabnews.com, May
3, 2021.
So, evidently Abbas's decision to call off the elections really did have nothing
to do with Israel. It was mainly the result of Abbas's totally justified fear
that his divided Fatah faction would once again be trounced by Hamas.
Yet, Shtayyeh seems unwilling to allow the facts to get in the way of his
straight-faced lies. In the past two years, Shtayyeh has been repeating his lie,
that the elections were canceled because of Israel, on almost a weekly basis. He
has repeated this lie to virtually every foreign dignitary or delegation he
meets with, including, recently, the US Democratic Congressional delegation.
About Shtayyeh's other lie that he keeps repeating, that Palestinians have
democracy, one does not need to be an expert on Palestinian affairs to know that
unfortunately the Palestinians are actually controlled by two undemocratic,
repressive regimes: the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, and Hamas in the
Gaza Strip.
Shtayyeh, it seems, also forgot to tell the Congressional members who came to
see him... that the Palestinians do not have either a free and independent media
or a functioning parliament.
Shtayyeh further forgot to tell his visitors that his own Palestinian Authority
government was viciously cracking down on Palestinian journalists, human rights
activists, political opponents and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in the
West Bank. The same holds true for the Gaza Strip, where Hamas has also been
targeting human rights workers, peaceful protesters, journalists and political
activists.
In the past few years, Palestinians have taken to the streets to protest
Palestinian corruption and repression.
In 2019, thousands of Palestinians demonstrated in Ramallah to protest the
Palestinian Social Security Institution and the impending tax hikes required to
fund it. Palestinians also took to the streets to blast the killing of the
heroic human rights activist, Nizar Banat, beaten to death by Palestinian
security officers in June 2021.
The demonstrators shouted slogans calling for the Palestinian president to step
down and demanding justice for the slain human rights activist: "Oh Abbas, take
your dogs and go away!" "The people want regime change", "Down with the
[Palestinian Authority] military rule," and "Shame, shame, the Palestinian
Authority assassinated Nizar Banat."
While talking about Palestinian "democracy," did Shtayyeh bother to tell his
American guests that a majority of the Palestinians do not criticize the
Palestinian Authority and Hamas for fear of their lives, especially after the
"example" that was made of Nizar Banat?
Did Shtayyeh bother to tell the US Congressional delegation and other foreigners
who ask to visit Ramallah that, according to recent public opinion polls, a vast
majority of the Palestinians believe there is corruption in institutions
controlled by the Palestinian Authority and Hamas?
Recently, the Palestinian Coalition for Accountability and Integrity published a
report naming officials close to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas
of suspected of involvement in financial corruption. Last year, even then
Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde criticized corruption in the Palestinian
Authority. Saying that widespread corruption was hindering Swedish economic aid
to the Palestinians, she emphasized serious hesitation about Swedish economic
support.
The Palestinians, who every day see a democracy in Israel -- for more than seven
decades -- can only dream of having one like it.
Palestinian leaders such as Shtayyeh are accustomed to lying to foreigners, whom
they view as ignorant and gullible. Many of these foreigners are also blinded by
their hatred for Israel and Jews to the point that they are willing to swallow
the lies offered with smiles by Palestinian officials.
Those who visit Ramallah and fail to challenge the lies they hear only reaffirm
the disrespectful view these leaders have of them. Worse, those visitors are
also complicit in the campaign of disinformation and brainwashing that has long
been waged by these Palestinian leaders with the aim of vilifying Israel,
demonizing Jews and above all, cruelly suppressing their own people.
Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh lied to a visiting US
Democratic Congressional delegation both when he claimed that Israel was
responsible for obstructing Palestinian elections and that Palestinians living
in the West Bank and Gaza Strip enjoy democracy. Shtayyeh's remarks show that
Palestinian leaders apparently think that many foreigners, especially Americans,
are stupid enough to believe anything that comes out of their mouths. Pictured:
Shtayyeh speaks at the Assembly of the African Union in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia on
February 18, 2023. (Photo by Tony Karumba/AFP via Getty Images)
Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh has shown that he can
include two lies in one short sentence. On August 8, he met with a visiting US
Democratic Congressional delegation in his office in Ramallah, the de facto
capital of the Palestinians where he and his boss, Palestinian Authority
President Mahmoud Abbas, live and work.
During the meeting, Shtayyeh blamed Israel for the fact that the Palestinians
have not held general elections for nearly two decades. He also accused Israel
of "attempting to combat the Palestinian democracy." Shtayyeh's remarks,
reported by the Palestinians' official news agency Wafa, show that Palestinian
leaders apparently think that many foreigners, especially Americans, are stupid
enough to believe anything that comes out of their mouths.
Shtayyeh lied both when he claimed that Israel was responsible for obstructing
Palestinian elections and that Palestinians living in the West Bank and Gaza
Strip enjoy democracy.
True, the Palestinians have not been able to hold general elections since 2006.
Yet, the claim that it is Israel's fault is an outright lie. The real reason
that Palestinians have not been able to hold parliamentary and presidential
elections is the ongoing power struggle between the Palestinian Authority and
Hamas, the Iranian-backed Islamist movement ruling the Gaza Strip.
The last Palestinian parliamentary election was in January 2006, when Hamas won
a majority of the seats of the parliament, known as the Palestinian Legislative
Council (PLC). The Hamas victory triggered a power struggle with the Palestinian
Authority, whose leaders seemed never to accept the results of the vote. This
power struggle reached its peak in the summer of 2007, when Hamas overthrew the
Palestinian Authority in Gaza and seized control of the entire Gaza Strip.
Dozens of Palestinians were killed during the Hamas coup. Some were dragged into
the streets and shot; others were thrown from rooftops of tall buildings.
Mohammed Sweirki, a Palestinian Authority security officer, was kidnapped and
hurled from the 15th floor of a building. A few hours later, in apparent
retaliation, Hamas member Abu Kainas was thrown from the roof of a 12-story
building.
Since then, the Palestinian Authority and Hamas have signed several
"reconciliation" agreements that included holding new general elections. Yet,
due to the ongoing rivalry between the two parties, none of these agreements has
ever been implemented.
In May 2011, the Palestinian Authority's ruling Fatah faction and Hamas agreed
to name members of the Palestinian Central Election Commission to prepare for
the long-overdue elections. They also agreed on the nomination of no more than
12 judges to be members of the Palestinian Electoral Court. According to the
deal, the general elections were supposed to be held after one year (in 2012).
In 2017, the Palestinian Authority and Hamas signed another agreement to hold a
general election by the end of 2018. Nevertheless, because of the continued
dispute between the two sides, that agreement, too, never materialized.
In 2021, Mahmoud Abbas, after yet another agreement between his Palestinian
Authority and Hamas, finally proclaimed the dates for elections: May 22 and July
30.
Less than a month before the vote, however, Abbas announced his decision to call
off the general election under the pretext that Israel had not certified whether
it would allow Arab residents of Jerusalem to cast their ballots. Palestinian
and Arab political analysts, though, said the real reason Abbas cancelled the
elections was because he had lost control over his own Fatah faction and feared
it would again lose to Hamas.
The claim that Israel did not allow Arabs in Jerusalem to participate in the
elections is false. Israel, regrettably, never issued an official statement on
the issue. Even if Israel had prohibited the Arabs residents of Jerusalem from
participating in the elections, the decision would have affected only a few
thousand voters.
According to protocols that Israel and the Palestinians signed as part of the
Oslo Accords, a symbolic total of 6,300 Arab voters are allowed to cast their
ballots in Jerusalem itself. The remaining 150,000 Arab voters from Jerusalem
are able to cast ballots at polling stations on the outskirts of the city, in a
process that does not require a green light from Israel. This is precisely what
happened during the 2006 parliamentary and 2005 presidential elections.
Hugh Lovatt, Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Affairs,
wrote in May 2021:
"By indefinitely postponing the first elections in 15 years, [Abbas] has missed
an important opportunity to put Palestine back on path towards national
reunification and accountable leadership. He is increasing the political
fragmentation and authoritarianism that has marked Palestinian politics since
the last elections...
"Since the launch of the electoral process, there had been speculation that
Abbas would ultimately call it off if he felt his hold on power slipping.
Ironically, this threat came not from Islamist Hamas, but from within his own
Fatah party."
Indeed, reports that Abbas would cancel the elections appeared days before he
announced his decision. "Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is seriously
considering postponing the May 22 parliamentary election and could announce the
move within days," the US-based Axios news website reported 10 days before the
announcement. "Abbas and his close aides are concerned they could lose the
election and strengthen Hamas. Israel and the Biden Administration privately
share those concerns."
Ramzy Baroud, editor of The Palestine Chronicle, is one of many Arab and
Palestinian political analysts who have accused Abbas of using the issue of
Jerusalem as an excuse to cancel the election:
"The truth is Abbas canceled the elections because all credible public opinion
polls showed that this month's legislative vote would have decimated the ruling
clique of his Fatah party and ushered in a whole new political configuration.
This would have seen Abbas's rivals Marwan Barghouti and Nasser Al-Qidwah emerge
as the new leaders of Fatah. If this scenario were to occur, a whole class of
millionaires who turned the Palestinian struggle into a lucrative industry,
generously funded by 'donor countries,' was at risk of losing everything....
"There is nothing that Abbas can say or do at this point to restore the people's
confidence in his authority. Arguably, he never had their confidence in the
first place. By canceling the elections, he has crossed a red line, thus placing
himself and a few others around him as enemies of the Palestinian people, their
democratic aspirations, and their hope for a better future."
So, evidently Abbas's decision to call off the elections really did have nothing
to do with Israel. It was mainly the result of Abbas's totally justified fear
that his divided Fatah faction would once again be trounced by Hamas.
Yet, Shtayyeh seems unwilling to allow the facts to get in the way of his
straight-faced lies. In the past two years, Shtayyeh has been repeating his lie,
that the elections were canceled because of Israel, on almost a weekly basis. He
has repeated this lie to virtually every foreign dignitary or delegation he
meets with, including, recently, the US Democratic Congressional delegation.
About Shtayyeh's other lie that he keeps repeating, that Palestinians have
democracy, one does not need to be an expert on Palestinian affairs to know that
unfortunately the Palestinians are actually controlled by two undemocratic,
repressive regimes: the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, and Hamas in the
Gaza Strip.
Shtayyeh, it seems, also forgot to tell the Congressional members who came to
see him in his office that the Palestinians do not have either a free and
independent media or a functioning parliament. The Palestinian parliament was
dissolved by Abbas in 2018.
Until then, it had been paralyzed due to the power struggle between the
Palestinian Authority and Hamas.
Shtayyeh further forgot to tell his visitors that his own Palestinian Authority
government was viciously cracking down on Palestinian journalists, human rights
activists, political opponents and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in the
West Bank. The same holds true for the Gaza Strip, where Hamas has also been
targeting human rights workers, peaceful protesters, journalists and political
activists.
When Shtayyeh, the Palestinian prime minister, tells foreign guests that Israel
is "combating the Palestinian democracy," he can probably get away with his lies
to Westerners, but the Palestinians are too smart to see through his lies. In
the past few years, Palestinians have taken to the streets to protest
Palestinian corruption and repression.
In 2019, thousands of Palestinians demonstrated in Ramallah to protest the
Palestinian Social Security Institution and the impending tax hikes required to
fund it. Palestinians also took to the streets to blast the killing of the
heroic human rights activist, Nizar Banat, beaten to death by Palestinian
security officers in June 2021.
The demonstrators shouted slogans calling for the Palestinian president to step
down and demanding justice for the slain human rights activist: "Oh Abbas, take
your dogs and go away!" "The people want regime change", "Down with the
[Palestinian Authority] military rule," and "Shame, shame, the Palestinian
Authority assassinated Nizar Banat."
While talking about Palestinian "democracy," did Shtayyeh bother to tell his
American guests that a majority of the Palestinians do not criticize the
Palestinian Authority and Hamas for fear of their lives, especially after the
"example" that was made of Nizar Banat? Just a few weeks ago, Shtayyeh's
security forces arrested yet another Palestinian journalist, Aqil Awawdeh, for
social media posts that were critical of political arrests made by the
Palestinian Authority.
Did Shtayyeh bother to tell the US Congressional delegation and other foreigners
who ask to visit Ramallah that, according to recent public opinion polls, a vast
majority of the Palestinians believe there is corruption in institutions
controlled by the Palestinian Authority and Hamas?
Recently, the Palestinian Coalition for Accountability and Integrity published a
report naming officials close to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas
of suspected of involvement in financial corruption. Last year, even then
Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde criticized corruption in the Palestinian
Authority. Saying that widespread corruption was hindering Swedish economic aid
to the Palestinians, she emphasized serious hesitation about Swedish economic
support.
The Palestinians, who every day see a democracy in Israel -- for more than seven
decades -- can only dream of having one like it.
Palestinian leaders such as Shtayyeh are accustomed to lying to foreigners, whom
they view as ignorant and gullible. Many of these foreigners are also blinded by
their hatred for Israel and Jews to the point that they are willing to swallow
the lies offered with smiles by Palestinian officials.
Those who visit Ramallah and fail to challenge the lies they hear only reaffirm
the disrespectful view these leaders have of them. Worse, those visitors are
also complicit in the campaign of disinformation and brainwashing that has long
been waged by these Palestinian leaders with the aim of vilifying Israel,
demonizing Jews and above all, cruelly suppressing their own people.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Saudi Arabia’s Nuclear “Asks”: What Do They Want, What
Might They Get?
Simon Henderson, David Schenker/The Washington Institute./Aug 15, 2023
Riyadh’s reported price for peace with Israel includes a civil nuclear program,
but any such deal will require Washington to carefully balance multiple
diplomatic, legal, and proliferation concerns.
According to accounts of recent off-the-record comments by Saudi Arabia’s de
facto leader, Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (aka MbS), the kingdom wants
three main things in return for a potential normalization agreement with Israel:
U.S. security guarantees, access to top-shelf American military equipment and
technology, and support for a domestic civil nuclear program. The third “ask”
may be the most challenging for Washington, since it includes access to uranium
enrichment technology that can be used to produce a nuclear explosive.
Saudi Weaponization Assurances?
The most recent iteration of such a deal would create a “Nuclear Aramco,”
mimicking the historical involvement of U.S. oil companies in the 1930s that
eventually led to the Saudis wholly owning the world’s largest oil company.
Riyadh reportedly suggested this idea to U.S. officials in part to reduce their
concerns about potential weaponization.
Yet Washington also surely recalls the crown prince’s nuclear remarks in a 2018
interview with 60 Minutes: “Saudi Arabia does not want to acquire any nuclear
bomb, but without a doubt if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit
as soon as possible.” Some might dismiss this as an impromptu comment rather
than a statement of policy, but the interview was prerecorded and came amid an
important trip to Washington—his first after being named heir to the throne.
Moreover, his uncle, the late King Abdullah, gave the same message to U.S.
special envoy Dennis Ross in 2009. And as recently as last December, Saudi
foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan told a conference in Dubai, “If Iran
gets an operational nuclear weapon, all bets are off.”
What Exactly Does Riyadh Want?
Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the crown prince’s
half-brother, gave an indication of the kingdom’s specific thinking this
January, telling a local mining conference that Riyadh wants “the entire nuclear
fuel cycle, which involves the production of yellowcake, low-enriched uranium,
and the manufacturing of nuclear fuel both for our national use and of course
for export.” The potentially troublesome phrase “entire nuclear fuel cycle”
implies that the kingdom wants to reprocess spent fuel, which can generate
explosive plutonium as a side product.
In the end, MbS is highly unlikely to accept any agreement that gives the
kingdom less than what Washington conceded to Iran in the 2015 nuclear accord.
Indeed, U.S.-Saudi discussions on the matter have centered on Iran’s regional
policies and its huge enrichment program, which is supposedly intended to fuel
civil reactors but has also been clearly identified as a military program. Most
observers believe Tehran is now on the cusp of being a nuclear-armed state—if it
so chose, it could quickly enrich its large stockpile of fissile material to
produce as many as five nuclear bombs, though it may need months or even years
to perfect the requisite implosion mechanism, missile warhead, or other delivery
system.
Saudi Arabia’s current nuclear plans include the proposed construction of two
civil power reactors, pruned back from the sixteen reactors proposed in 2013.
According to Riyadh’s logic, using its recently discovered indigenous uranium
deposits to fuel new reactors and generate electricity would enable it to export
most of its oil, which remains the cheapest in the world to produce and is still
necessary to fund the kingdom’s transition to a greener, more diversified
economy in the coming decades. Yet the size and quality of its uranium reserves
are questionable. In April, Bloomberg reported that Saudi “exploration yielded
only ‘severely uneconomic’ deposits so far”—an assessment based on an in-depth
uranium report by the Nuclear Energy Agency and International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA).
Moreover, U.S. officials have already expressed concerns about the kingdom’s
previously reported steps toward nuclearization. On August 4, 2020, the Wall
Street Journal cited unnamed officials who asserted that China had built a
facility in the Saudi desert to convert uranium ore into yellowcake, an
intermediate stage before enrichment. The next day, the New York Times also
cited unnamed sources in reporting that two buildings near Riyadh could be
undeclared “nuclear facilities.”
If the kingdom has already built enrichment facilities, where did it acquire the
necessary technology? Well-placed Western officials concede that Saudi Arabia
was the fourth, unpublicized customer of A. Q. Khan, the late Pakistani nuclear
scientist and proliferator who sold centrifuge equipment to Iran, Libya, and
North Korea. Khan retired in 2001, suggesting that his activities with the
kingdom happened more than twenty years ago.
U.S. Options
Given that the situation with Iran provides the overall context for U.S.-Saudi
nuclear deliberations, any technical advance by Tehran could change everything
overnight. If the status quo persists, however, the current ambiguity
surrounding the scope of Iran’s capabilities and potential U.S. dealmaking could
provide opportunities for diplomacy with Riyadh.
Grandfathering in existing Saudi facilities may be one way forward. Moreover,
Prince Abdulaziz stated in January that “the kingdom intends to utilize its
national uranium resources, including in joint ventures with willing partners in
accordance with international commitments and transparency standards.” Although
this seems to run against the idea of the United States directly monitoring
Saudi activities as part of a “Nuclear Aramco,” it does imply an unspecified
role for the Vienna-based IAEA, the world’s top nuclear watchdog. Currently, the
kingdom has a low-level agreement with the IAEA but has not signed the
“Additional Protocol,” which allows for intrusive inspections. One way to boost
U.S. confidence in a “Nuclear Aramco” scenario would be for Riyadh to submit to
more rigorous and continuous IAEA inspections, as more than 140 countries have
done under the Additional Protocol.
Another consideration is Israel, whose government has not yet articulated an
authoritative, unified view on a potential Saudi nuclear power program. In June,
Energy Minister Israel Katz voiced opposition to such a program at the United
Nations. During an interview a few months later, however, National Security
Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi downplayed the potential risks. Notably, Israel opposed
Jordan’s proposal to build a nuclear energy plant in 2009 due to safety
concerns. A reactor on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast—distant from Iran but in
range of missile fire from Tehran’s Houthi partners in Yemen—would no doubt
generate similar fears.
Saudi enrichment demands place the Biden administration in a difficult position
as well. Washington has long proscribed enrichment when negotiating civil
nuclear cooperation with regional states. For instance, it convinced the United
Arab Emirates to abjure the practice and opposed Jordanian ambitions to pursue
commercial enrichment. Indeed, the U.S. legal framework for civil nuclear
cooperation—Section 123 of the Atomic Energy Act of 1954, under which Washington
has signed agreements with twenty-three countries—explicitly prohibits
enrichment and reprocessing.
Yet there have been exceptions, most notably India. And earlier this year, the
United States included enrichment in the civil nuclear agreement it signed with
Britain, Canada, France, and Japan, in a deal intended to insulate allies from
sanctions against Russia, the world’s leading provider of civil nuclear fuel.
The game-changing regional possibilities of Israeli-Saudi peace—coupled with
concerns that Riyadh might look elsewhere for its nuclear program if Washington
does not help, which would mean fewer safeguards—could push the Biden
administration toward a more flexible outlook on enrichment.
Even as it encourages normalization between Riyadh and Jerusalem, Washington is
probably trying to balance policies that constrain Iran, preserve U.S.
diplomatic options, and address Middle East proliferation concerns—namely, the
likelihood that further Iranian nuclear advances will prompt other regional
countries to actively pursue their own military nuclear alternatives. Egypt,
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the UAE are widely believed to have the technological
base for such efforts or access to it, while Russia, China, and perhaps even
France may oblige with additional help (e.g., Paris signed a nuclear cooperation
agreement with Riyadh in July).
***Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on
Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute. David Schenker is the
Institute’s Taube Senior Fellow and director of its Rubin Program on Arab
Politics.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/saudi-arabias-nuclear-asks-what-do-they-want-what-might-they-get
Closing Washington’s China Gap with Middle East Partners
Michael Singh/The Washington Institute./Aug 15, 2023
For the first time in decades, America’s top strategic priority diverges from
that of its key regional partners, but Washington can close the gap by
increasing their understanding of China and removing the blinders from their
threat perceptions.
As U.S. policymakers have focused more on competition with China in recent
years, their concerns over Middle East relations with Beijing have grown as
well. This has contributed to a vicious cycle—growing Chinese influence and
ambitions around the world result in decreased American attention to the Middle
East, which in turn incentivizes U.S. regional partners to deepen their ties
with Beijing, which in turn increases tensions with Washington and leads some to
conclude that the Middle East is a lost cause. Underlying this dynamic are
frequent suspicions of bad faith. Washington worries that its partners are
cynically using China ties as leverage to extract favors from the United States
or, worse, that they share an authoritarian affinity with Beijing; for their
part, regional partners worry that Washington is either unreliable or so focused
on domestic politics that it no longer ascribes strategic value to its Middle
East relationships.
What these assumptions often neglect are two more fundamental differences.
First, the parties differ substantially in the threat they perceive from
Beijing. From the U.S. perspective, there is no greater threat than China’s
growing economic and military might and revisionist intentions. Yet Middle
Eastern partners perceive only minor threats from China, if any. They are far
more likely to see Beijing as a valuable trading partner and a benign, even
helpful, political partner and occasional great-power counterweight, especially
when faced with inconvenient U.S. demands. These differences mean that for the
first time in decades, Washington and its regional partners sharply diverge on
what they consider their primary national security threat.
Second, both sides differ in their capacity to understand China. In the modern
era, Beijing has had little meaningful engagement in the Middle East, while
regional elites have spent relatively little time there compared to other
international capitals. Compounding this unfamiliarity is the scarce analytical
capacity of most Middle Eastern governments. Even Israel, the most capable
regional intelligence ally, naturally directs most of its analytical resources
toward what it considers its top threats (e.g., Iran and terrorism). This gap in
understanding only widened over the past few years as the United States directed
more of its resources toward the Indo-Pacific and China underwent historic
political change, from dramatically concentrating domestic power to embracing a
more ambitious foreign policy. The speed of these shifts has left Middle Eastern
partners struggling to keep up.
Closing the Gap
Given these differences, America’s numerous warnings about Chinese technology,
military activities, diplomatic initiatives, and other matters tend to be
received skeptically in the region. In many cases, partners view these messages
as requests for favors to the United States with little connection to their own
interests or priorities; in other cases, they believe they are being asked to
act against their interests and essentially choose between Washington and
Beijing. More cynically, U.S. requests have created leverage for partners to
play the two great powers off one another in hopes of extracting maximal
benefits from both.
Compounding these difficulties is the fact that American concerns about China
often straddle the boundaries of foreign policy, economics, and technology in
ways that conversations about Iran, terrorism, and other traditional Middle East
topics do not. This can place U.S. officials at a disadvantage, as they tend to
be more specialized portfolio-wise than their regional counterparts (especially
in the Persian Gulf) and may therefore know less about broader trade or
technology matters—or even about U.S. policy on these global issues. In such
cases, Middle Eastern officials will not hesitate to draw on their deeper
knowledge to point out hypocrisy or double standards when rebuffing Washington’s
requests.
Attempting to close these analytical and policy gaps is a tall order and may
prove quixotic in some respects. The increase in Middle East ties with Beijing
stems not just from Washington pursuing the right or wrong policies, but also
from deeper tectonic shifts that are unlikely to abate in the foreseeable
future: namely, China’s growing (and the West’s declining) demand for oil,
Beijing’s determination to play a diplomatic and security role in the region,
and the decreasing importance of Middle Eastern conflicts in Washington’s
national security strategy. Yet none of this should dissuade U.S. policymakers
from doing what they can to reach a better mutual understanding with regional
partners on the China challenge.
Policy Recommendations
In light of all these factors, the U.S. government should take the following
steps:
Doctor, heal thyself. First and foremost, the State Department should reconsider
its recent “China watcher” model at U.S. embassies in the Middle East, under
which officers with specialized training are designated to handle issues related
to great power competition. This program was based on the “Iran watcher” program
of the early 2000s, but unlike that relatively narrow portfolio, China
competition has come to dominate U.S. national security strategy and should be
treated accordingly. All American diplomats overseas need to understand the key
tenets of U.S. policy toward Beijing and have at least a basic grounding in
Washington’s concerns about trade, technology, and related matters—particularly
the steps that have been taken to restrict Chinese trade and investment. Some of
this training is already taking place, but it must be accelerated and greatly
expanded.
Creating a China knowledge network. The U.S. intelligence community should
partner with allies in the Indo-Pacific (e.g., Japan and Australia) to train
their Middle Eastern counterparts—especially in the Gulf—on China analysis. This
training should not focus specifically on Beijing’s policy in the region, but
rather on broader issues such as China’s civil-military fusion, recent domestic
changes, and problematic activities worldwide (e.g., espionage, cyberattacks,
influence operations, technology transfer). The ultimate purpose should be to
cultivate a network of China experts in Middle Eastern governments and provide
them with the tools and data to vet China-related risks to their national
interests, while keeping relevant channels open so they can turn to their U.S.
counterparts when needed. To make this initiative less provocative to
Beijing—and, by extension, more likely to elicit regional participation—the
training should also focus on other global challenges such as Russia and Iran.
Replicate the U.S.-Israel Strategic Technology Dialogue. In September 2022,
Washington and Jerusalem launched a bilateral “Strategic High-Level Dialogue on
Technology.” Led by two countries’ national security advisors, the interagency
group’s mandate covers clean energy technology, pandemic preparedness,
artificial intelligence, and other tech issues. Although China was not mentioned
in statements announcing the group’s initial meeting or latest talks, it was
undoubtedly what spurred the dialogue’s creation, as U.S. concerns over Israeli
tech cooperation with Beijing had become a significant irritant in the
relationship. The United States should consider replicating this model with the
United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and perhaps Qatar. Although their tech
sectors are not as well-developed as Israel’s, all three are investing heavily
on this front and have partnered extensively with Beijing in ways concerning to
Washington. If the bilateral dialogues prove viable and successful, Washington
should consider combining them into a multilateral framework.
Reframe threat perceptions. Despite demarche after demarche, even America’s
closest partners in the Middle East simply do not see China as a threat to their
interests (apart from the friction that their Chinese ties are creating with
Washington, perhaps). This is not to say they are blindly trusting of Beijing’s
intentions, merely that they do not view its actions as threatening. In fact,
they see China’s desire to be more active in the Middle East as an opportunity,
whether in terms of attracting trade and investment or balancing their
dependence on the United States.
Yet this threat perception is deeply mistaken. For example, if China attempts to
take Taiwan by force or other methods, the resulting crisis would likely entail
enormous disruptions in global trade that wreak severe economic damage in the
Middle East. Even short of that drastic scenario, Beijing could weaponize its
economic leverage over the region at any time for political purposes, as it has
already attempted to do against Australia, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines,
and others. Chinese cooperation with Iran remains deeply problematic as
well—despite Beijing’s efforts to frame it in positive terms (e.g., the recent
Iran-Saudi rapprochement), such activity has helped shield Tehran from economic
and diplomatic isolation while enhancing the threat it poses to neighbors.
U.S. officials should emphasize these threats rather than rehashing messages
about democracy vs. autocracy or risks to the international order, which do not
resonate among most U.S. partners in the Middle East. Much like China, the
majority of these partners see themselves as rising powers who have not been
accorded their fair share of global influence.
In addition to pointing out threats, U.S. officials should work with regional
partners on initiatives that appeal to them while still tacitly countering
Beijing. For example, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have the capital to rival Chinese
investments in infrastructure and mineral extraction in the developing world and
could benefit from Western partnership in this regard. Failing that, they may
wind up facilitating Beijing’s strategy by pursuing such opportunities with
Chinese partners, which are proffered more readily at present.
*Michael Singh is the managing director and Lane-Swig Senior Fellow at The
Washington Institute and interim director of its Diane and Guilford Glazer
Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/closing-washingtons-china-gap-middle-east-partners
Massive Campaign Promoting Spanish Translation Of
Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei's Memoir – Iran's Latest Strategy For Spreading
Its Islamic Revolution In Latin America
Emmanuel Cadieux/MEMRI/August 15, 2023 |
Since its founding, the revolutionary regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran has
made massive efforts to export the principles of its Islamic Revolution to the
world at large. In the Middle East and Africa, this exporting of the revolution
has been carried out by means of proxies such as Hizbullah in Lebanon, the
Houthis in Yemen, the Shi'ite militias in Iraq, and Shi'ite clerics in Nigeria,
all of which Iran provides with financial, political and organizational
assistance so that they can gradually undermine local politics and establish
local support bases.
In Latin America, Iran has employed a similar strategy. Recognizing Latin
America's geostrategic significance as the U.S.'s "backyard," it has sought to
export the revolution across the region through the influence of local Shi'ite
clerics and political leaders who seek to gradually infiltrate local politics
and garner countrywide support for anti-U.S. positions.[1]
These passionate pro-Iran leaders often collaborate with leftist politicians to
promote the view that Iran's and Latin America's struggles are one and the same
– that is, against the arrogant Western powers who oppress the free nations
through moral degradation, economic slavery, and territorial colonization. To
this end, the Iranian regime and its protégé Hizbullah have also traditionally
used accounts on various social media platforms, including HispanTV,[2] Al-Mayadeen
Español,[3] and Al-ManarTV en Español,[4] as well as Khamenei.ir,[5] Iranian
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's official accounts on Twitter, Facebook and
Instagram. Through these, they address local audiences in their own languages.
In this way, Iran has sought to continue recruiting local operatives whom Iran
hopes will realize, through sufficient exposure to the core values of the
Islamic Revolution, that it is only through collaboration with the Islamic
Republic of Iran that their Latin American nations will regain their political
and economic sovereignty – which, in their view, is under threat from all
Western powers.
In 2023, Iran's latest attempts to indoctrinate such Latin American operatives
largely focused on promoting the book Celda No. 14 (Cell No. 14), the Spanish
translation of the memoir of Supreme Leader Khamenei. The book, originally
written by Khamenei in Arabic and subsequently translated into Farsi and
Spanish,[6] is Khamenei's memoir of his imprisonment and exile in Iran prior to
the triumph of the Islamic Revolution in 1979. The book has been massively
promoted at multiple international bookfairs across Latin America, including in
Cuba, Venezuela, and Colombia, and represents the Iranian regime's latest
attempt at igniting the revolutionary spark in the region – this time through
cultural and literary exchange.
Celda No. 14 ("Cell No. 14") – Khamenei's Memoir
On May 10, 2023, the Iranian cultural center Centro de Intercambio Cultural
Latinoamericano[7] launched the official Spanish translation of Khamenei's
memoir Celda No. 14 at a ceremony. The title refers to one of the cells where
Khamenei was imprisoned in during the Shah-era in Iran prior to the Islamic
Revolution.
The book was the fruit of collaboration between Lighthouse International
Publications and ONG Shahid Soleimani; the latter is a nonprofit organization
sponsored by the Iranian Embassy in Bogota, Colombia.[8]
The publishing house Lighthouse International Publications – in Farsi, Fanoos
Daryaei[9] – belongs to Khamenei,[10] and its Spanish-language Colombia branch,
El Faro Internacional, is run by alumni of Al-Mustafa International University
in Qom, Iran,[11] which is widely known to be one of the Iranian regime's main
tools for indoctrinating foreign clerics. El Faro Internacional is also part of
Islam Oriente, a website run by Al-Mustafa University and headed by Mohsen
Rabbani. Rabbani is one of the Iranian nationals implicated in the 1994 bombing
of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires.[12]
Other works published by El Faro Internacional include the book Mi Tío Soleimani
("My Uncle Soleimani"), which glorifies the late IRGC Qods Force commander
Qassem Soleimani as a role model worthy of imitation. Both Celda No. 14 and Mi
Tío Soleimani can be purchased from Amazon,[13] and the Spanish audio of Celda
No. 14 is available through the Centro de Intercambio Cultural Latinoamericano
website.[14]
The International Fair Of Iranian-Venezuelan Culture And Friendship, Caracas,
March 4-12, 2023
The launch of Celda No. 14 was held as part of the first International Fair of
Iranian-Venezuelan Culture and Friendship (#FICA2023),[15] in the Plaza de los
Museos de Bellas Artes in Caracas March 4-12, 2023.[16] The fair comprised
multiple booths featuring a wide range of activities, including an exhibit of
Iranian handicrafts,[17] an Iranian gastronomic experience,[18] free medical
attention,[19] and a hijab workshop for women.[20]
Attended by thousands of Venezuelans,[21] the fair also presented and promoted
Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei and the late Qods Force commander Soleimani as
peaceful, justice-seeking leaders comparable to Malcom X, Mahatma Gandhi, and
Nelson Mandela.[22]
The Centro de Intercambio Cultural Latinoamericano, which hosted the fair,
belongs to the Iranian Embassy in Venezuela[23] and is dedicated to spreading
Islamic knowledge in Venezuela and Latin America. The center is directed by José
Nassar, in conjunction with Sheikh Ahmad Saleh,[24] a Lebanese sheikh who
studied at Mustafa University in Qom[25] and who was also the fair's
director.[26] The fair was also cohosted by the Iranian propaganda news channel
Segundo Paso and by the Editorial Internacional El Faro and El color de la
Resistencia, which are other pro-Iran organizations.[27] According to the
Iranian Cultural Center, the fair was the "first edition" of many to come.[28]
Senior Officials Attend Launch Of Celda No. 14
The launch of Celda No. 14 at the fair was presided over by Iranian Ambassador
to Venezuela Hojjat Soltani, Iranian Culture Minister Mahdi Esmaili,[29] and
Venezuelan Culture Minister Ernesto Villegas Poljak.[30] Other senior officials
present at the launch ceremony included Venezuelan National Assembly Vice
President Pedro Infante,[31] Mexican Ambassador to Venezuela Polo de Gyves,[32]
and other Iranian officials.
Also at the book launch, Poljak and Esmaili drew attention to a message from
Supreme Leader Khamenei to "all Spanish-speaking people of the world."[33] The
message, in Farsi in Khamenei's handwriting, was included in Spanish translation
in the introduction of the book. It reads: "In the name of God, the most
gracious and most merciful, I will be very pleased if through this book a bridge
is established with my dear Spanish-speaking readers. This text is but a small
part of my anecdotes. How beautiful is the fact that we, you and all the nations
that seek justice, can get to know each other better and join forces! I pray to
God that you succeed and have a prosperous life."
The launch of the book was also announced on Khamenei's official Twitter
accounts in Spanish[34] and Farsi,[35] as well as by other local and Iranian
news outlets.[36
Notably, in an interview with Khamenei's website Khamenei.ir, Venezuelan Culture
Minister Poljak called Celda No. 14 an "atomic book." Asked why, he said: "Today
I remembered that when [the late Venezuelan president] Commander [Hugo] Chavez
first read that Iran and Venezuela were being accused of hiding an atomic
[nuclear power] plant in a bicycle factory in Venezuela for military purposes,
he decided to ridicule that imperialist campaign by dubbing the bicycles 'atomic
bicycles.' This book is thus also an 'atomic book,' because what can be more
dangerous to imperialism and the global arrogance [i.e. the U.S.] than a nation
that reads, and [whose] people are increasingly aware of the cultural diversity
and complexity of the history of our humanity? In this [particular] case, the
Venezuelan people, armed with the knowledge of the Iranian reality... are now
better informed and less susceptible to manipulation. In this way, it [the book]
has an atomic effect on the conscience of our people."[37] The minister's
reference to the book as "atomic" was later widely quoted on Twitter. [38]
Minister Poljak was also asked by in the interview about his opinion on the
impact the book could have on the people of Venezuela and on the rest of the
Latin American countries. To this, Poljak replied: "It should have a multiplier
effect... This book will, in all certainty, draw the attention of other Latin
American countries, who will demand access to this work – [a work] that brings
us closer to a fundamental universal culture of humanity [i.e. Iranian culture].
So we are very happy to be able to host the global launch of this work in
Venezuela; I am sure [it] will be widely requested, read, and discussed, and
will enter the mind and heart of Spanish-speaking readers."[39]
In turn, Iranian Culture Minister Esmaili stressed "resistance against
arrogance" as "one of the cultural fields between the two countries which can
pave the way for holding cultural and resistance festivals," including the
translation and publication of books. In this way, Esmaili expressed his hope
that the reopening of Iran's cultural attaché office in Venezuela would help
advance the establishment and celebration of such important "joint cultural days
and weeks" in the two countries.[40]
Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil Pinto also met with Esmaili. Minister Gil
Pinto said that in the meeting both had reiterated "the need to build a joint
agenda to make culture and history a safe way to combat campaigns that threaten
the truth of our peoples."[41] Additionally, Minister Esmaili tweeted about the
meeting: "The government and people of this country, despite the vast plots of
American colonialism, are moving forward with resistance. In Venezuela, the love
for and interest in Iranian culture and the leader of the revolution is
exemplary..."[42]
Minister Gil Pinto also said that Khamenei's memoir "will be used as a guide to
fight against the enemy and a symbol of resistance."[43] He then tweeted about
the work meeting that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was holding at the
time with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.[44]
The day before the book launch, on March 9, 2023, Venezuelan Minister of
Communication and Information Alfred Nazareth (Freddy Náñez)[45] also met with
Iranian Culture Minister Esmaili. According to the Venezuelan and Iranian
governments, at the meeting the ministers highlighted the need to develop
greater media ties between the two countries in order to fight "fake news" and
"media terrorism," and also emphasized the need for "disseminating, through a
common agenda, the culture and history of both nations, as an antidote to biased
propaganda that seeks to stigmatize their peoples."[46]
Two days later, in an interview with Khamenei.ir, Náñez called Khamenei's fight
"an inspiration to stand up and defend the homeland."[47] The interview was
tweeted by Jameneí Multimedia, one of Supreme Leader Khamenei's official
Spanish-language news outlets.
Under Minister Náñez’s leadership, the Venezuelan Communications and Information
Ministry[50] is notorious for celebrating the late Qods Force commander Qassem
Soleimani. On March 11, 2023, the ministry marked Soleimani's birthday, tweeting
a quote by him: "We are not like the Americans, we do not abandon our friends."
The ministry added: "[Celebrating the] birth of a fighter against imperialism.
Hero!"[51] The tweet was tweeted twice more by the ministry, and each was
retweeted an average of 2,000 times by the account's followers.[52]
In "Salaam Ya Mahdi" Song At The Fair, Children Ask The Mahdi – The Shi'ite
Messianic Figure – To Choose Them As "His Soldiers," Vow To "Fulfill His
Promise"
Another important activity held at the fair was a performance of the Spanish
version of the song "Salaam Ya Mahdi,"[53] by children belonging to Venezuela's
Lebanese community. In Shi'a Islam, the Mahdi, a messianic figure in the form of
a political and spiritual leader, will come during the end times to fight the
Shi'ites' enemies – i.e. the West and the Sunnis – and establish peace and
justice with his Islamic governance of the world. According to scholars, these
Shi'ite messianic expectations are the true driving force behind Iran's Islamic
regime, because the power of the ayatollahs in Iran resides in the popular
belief that they can "contact the Mahdi."[54]
A video of the song "Salaam Ya Mahdi" was first released in October 2022, by
Sheikh Ahmad Saleh, the Lebanese sheikh who studied at Mustafa University in Qom
and who was the director of the fair, on his Facebook page. In that video, the
children sing in Spanish and Arabic, asking the Mahdi to choose them as "his
soldiers" and vowing to "fulfill his promise."[55]
They sing: "I am small but I follow the path of Karbala Mahulai, I am small, but
I carry the blood of Ashura Mahulai. I'm small, but I have overcome, like no one
else will. Labayka ya Mahdi [I am here, oh Mahdi!] – I am a soldier and I come
out of loyalty to fight. I am here, oh Mahdi – for you [I have] suffered with my
tears, my Lord. I am here, oh Mahdi – I swear by my parents that my soul is for
you. When you see us and we see you, I promise not to disappoint my religion; I
promise to follow your guidance, Maulahi; I promise to love God in my prayer.
Defend the... Quran, it is my oath."[56]
According to the video's credits, the children are members of the Children's and
Youth Choir of the Iranian Cultural Center, and Sheikh Ahmad Saleh was in charge
of the Spanish adaptation of the song as well as the general direction of the
music video.
The song is the Spanish adaptation of the Iranian revolutionary song "Salam
Farmande,"[57] a Shi'ite ode to the Mahdi, in which children call for his return
and ask him to make them his soldiers. A number of videos of the song in
different languages were released in the Western hemisphere – in Canada (in
Arabic, French, and English),[58] Venezuela (Spanish and Arabic),[59] and Brazil
(Portuguese and Arabic).[60] In almost every version, the children are in
military formation, as though ready for battle.
Celda No. 14 In Colombia
The Iranian Embassy in Bogota, Colombia also held a similar book launch, at the
International Book Fair of Bogota, April 18-May 2, 2023. The Bogota fair is one
of the world's leading book fairs. Celda No. 14 was promoted for the entire
duration of the fair, at the booth of the Iranian Embassy in the international
pavilion. The official launch, held in one of the fair's grand halls, was held
April 23.[61]
A few days later, on April 28, a similar launch was held in Colombia's Congress,
before over 200 prominent Colombian politicians and cultural figures.[62] The
event was broadcast live by various Iranian state-owned propaganda media
outlets, such as IRNA Español,[63] HispanTV,[64] and PressTV.[65]
Other launch ceremonies took place April 30 at the National Library of
Colombia[66] in Bogota; May 4 at the National Library in the city of Cali;[67]
and May 6 in the meeting hall of the Bucaramanga Trade Federation in Bucaramanga.
This last was attended by the president and students of the University of
Santander, the special representative of Santander's governor, and the
representative of the Mercosur trade organization.[68]
Two months after the book's launch in Caracas, Lighthouse International
Publications announced that it would be publishing a third edition.[69]
The massive support for the book achieved by Iran by means of its aggressive
publicity campaign at international book fairs, universities, and even the
Colombian Congress is a reason for great concern, as it is evidence of Latin
America's continued openness to revolutionary ideology.
* Emmanuel Cadieux is a Research Fellow at MEMRI.
[1] See MEMRI Inquiry & Analysis No. 1517, The Organization For The Liberation
Of Argentina (OLA) – Building Support For The Iranian Regime And Hizbullah, July
1, 2020 and MEMRI JTTM report Brazilian Shi'ite Cleric Rodrigo Jalloul Supports
Iranian Regime, Disseminates Its Ideology In Brazil – And Recently Announced
Intention To Run For São Paulo City Councilor, September 1, 2020. Another
example of an aspiring political leader Iran hopes to use to gradually
infiltrate local politics and garner countrywide support for anti-U.S. positions
is Marlon Cantillo, former director of the Iranian cultural center Casa Cultural
Islámica Ahlul Bayt in Bogota, who ran for the Colombian senate in 2022.
Cantillo, aka "Ibrahim Hussein," studied at Al-Mustafa International University
in Qom, Iran, an institution widely known to be one of the regime's main
instruments for the indoctrination of foreign clerics.
[2] Hispantv.com; Facebook.com/Hispantvprogramas (125,000 followers);
Facebook.com/nexolatino (26,000 followers); Facebook.com/hispantv.buendiaal
(21,000 followers); Facebook.com/DocumentalesHispanTV (19,000 followers);
Instagram.com/hispan_tv?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA; Twitter.com/Nexo_Latino;
Youtube.com/@nexolatino; https://t.me/HispanTVcanal.
[3] Twitter.com/almayadeen_es, Facebook.com/videos.almayadeen.es, Instagram.com/almayadeenenespanol?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==,
Youtube.com/channel/UCip9Q0ZxDwXSlMmjFAZFCKw, T.me/almayadeenespanol.
[4] Spanish.almanar.com.lb/, /T.me/almanarnewsSP, Twitter.com/AlmanarSpanish.
[5] Spanish.khamenei.ir. Twitter.com/es_Khamenei, Twitter.com/JameneiM,
Instagram.com/es_khamenei?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==, Facebook.com/Khamenei.Es.
[6] According to Tehran Times, the Arabic version was unveiled by Hizbullah
secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah at a February 2019 ceremony in Beirut marking
the 40th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution. Tehrantimes.com/news/484085/Spanish-edition-of-Leader-s-autobiography-Cell-No-14-introduced,
April 28, 2023.
[7] The cultural center was previously known as the Centro de Intercambio
Cultural Iraní Latinoamericano, (Iranian-Latinoamerican Cultural Exchange
Center). The "Iranian" was later omitted, apparently to ease concerns. @islamenvzla,
Twitter.com/islamenvzla; @ islamenvenezuela, Instagram.com/islamenvenezuela?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==;
Facebook.com/islamenvzla/,
Facebook.com/cicil.paraiso, Facebook.com/profile.php?id=100069715009048;
Islamenvenezuela.com; Cicilvenezuela @ gmail.com ; +58 212-4727428, Av. Urbaneja
entre calle 5 y 4, Qta San Rafael Urb La Paz El Paraiso, Caracas, Capital
District, Venezuela.
[8] The Shahid Soleimani nonprofit organization was established in December 2020
as an initiative to "resume the path opened by Qassem Soleimani and many other
martyrs of the Islamic Revolution in Iran." It describes Soleimani as having
participated in "important social and humanitarian projects" and as having
played a "key role in strengthening peace in the Middle East." It states that it
holds activities including intercultural and interfaith dialogue, and provides
food and school supplies to children and young adults impacted by "poverty and
inequality."
[9] @ FanoosDaryaei, Twitter.com/FanoosDaryaei; @fanoosdaryaei_pub,
Instagram.com/fanoosdaryaei_pub?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==.
[10] https://twitter.com/m_m_esmaeili/status/1634530619521638401, March 11,
2023.
[11] Instagram profiles: @ almustafa_open_university.en, Instagram.com/almustafa_open_university.en?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==
, @ al_mustafa_open_university, Instagram.com/al_mustafa_open_university?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==
, @ almustafavirtual, Instagram.com/almustafavirtual?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA== .
[12] Fdd.org/analysis/2021/01/25/iran-commemorates-death-of-qassem-soleimani,
January 25, 2021.
[13] Amazon.com/dp/B0C8X7VWD4?ref_=cm_sw_r_mwn_dp_A8S0F8RQ6KJJYKY1B1DA
Amazon.com/t%C3%ADo-Soleimani-Spanish-Muhammad-Yaberi-ebook/dp/B08R376PV5.
[14] Segundopaso.es/service/fica.
[15] In Spanish, "Feria Internacional de la cultura y la amistad
iraní-venezolana."
[16] Twitter.com/RahMasood1400/status/1632973238065037313?s=20, March 7, 2023.
[17] Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1634398640079794176?s=20, March 10, 2023.
[18] Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1634855618640003072?s=20, March 12, 2023.
[19] Twitter.com/RahMasood1400/status/1632338787417112576?s=20, March 5, 2023,
Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1632790714768556032?s=20, March 6, 2023,
Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1632878493628235776?s=20, March 6,
2023,Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1633213246965522434?s=20, March 7,
2023,Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1633156773287718935?s=20, March 7, 2023.
[20] Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1633559290593132547?s=20, March 8, 2023,
Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1633104824127442945?s=20, March 7, 2023,
Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1633617192842416128?s=20, March 8, 2023,
Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1633644406556225536?s=20, March 8, 2023.
[21] Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1633239919140253697?s=20, March 7, 2023,
Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1633473545509453827?s=20, March 8, 2023,
Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1634516248301039616?s=20, March 11, 2023.
[22] Twitter.com/RahMasood1400/status/1632338787417112576?s=20, March 5, 2023,
Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1632735683407237122?s=20, March 6, 2023.
[23] Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1037727080845385728?s=20, September 6, 2018.
[24] Facebook.com/3ahikazzahra2, on Instagram, @ amed_saleh_313, Instagram.com/amed_saleh_313?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=.
Sheikh Ahmad Saleh teaches at CICL Caracas: Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1446530698865778733?s=20,
October 8, 2021, Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1436424061001867278?s=20,
September 10, 2021, Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1430952253662416902?s=20,
August 26, 2021.
[25] Facebook.com/3ahikazzahra2.
[26] Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1632187384761655300?s=20, March 4, 2023.
[27] Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1631656262147481601?s=20, March 3, 2023.
[28] Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1630363249488142340?s=20, February 27, 2023,
Twitter.com/Eiranencaracas/status/1631830734179561473?s=20, March 3, 2023.
[29] @tm_m_esmaeili, Twitter.com/m_m_esmaeili, Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1634222567803289600?s=20,
March 10, 2023.
[30] Twitter.com/VillegasPoljak, on Instagram @ ernestovillegaspoljak,
Instagram.com/ernestovillegaspoljak?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA== , Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1634386171164868608?s=20,
March 10, 2023, Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1634655829700882433?s=20, March
11, 2023, Twitter.com/VillegasPoljak/status/1634345177337741317?s=20, March 10,
2023, Twitter.com/VillegasPoljak/status/1634344251088576513?s=20, March 10,
2023.
[31] @ pinfantea, Twitter.com/pinfantea?lang=en, Twitter.com/RahMasood1400/status/1632338787417112576?s=20,
March 5, 2023.
[32] Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1635125349544763393?s=20, March 12, 2023,
Twitter.com/FanoosDaryaei/status/1635188169611288577?s=20, March 13, 2023.
[33] English.khamenei.ir/photo/9580/Ceremony-for-release-of-Leader-s-book-in-Spanish,
March 11, 2023.
[34] Twitter.com/es_Khamenei/status/1634300808513695744?s=20, March 10, 2023,
Twitter.com/JameneiM/status/1633600558115299329?s=20, March 8, 2023, Twitter.com/Khamenei_m/status/1634668035003801600?s=20,
March 11, 2023.
[35] Twitter.com/Khamenei_fa/status/1634326237920342019?s=20, March 10, 2023,
Twitter.com/JameneiM/status/1634344043877392386?s=20, March 10, 2023.
[36] Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1633939643769946112?s=20, March 9, 2023,
Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1631855126456553474?s=20, March 3, 2023,
Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1631445116274483200?s=20, March 2, 2023,
Twitter.com/islamenvzla/status/1633939643769946112?s=20, March 9, 2023,
Twitter.com/IraninCuba/status/1634390897688301568?s=20, March 10, 2023,
Twitter.com/Tasnimnews_Fa/status/1633756254903361537?s=20, March 9, 2023.
[37] Twitter.com/JameneiM/status/1634581282347786241?s=20, March 11, 2023.
[38] Twitter.com/Soheil_asaad/status/1634425041830965249?s=20, March 11, 2023,
Twitter.com/Elahetahmasebi1/status/1635251031369187328?s=20, March 13, 2023.
[39] Twitter.com/JameneiM/status/1634581282347786241?s=20, March 11, 2023.
[40] Twitter.com/Iran_GOV/status/1634443828517040128?s=20, March 11, 2023.
[41] Twitter.com/yvangil/status/1634312075638915072?s=20, March 10, 2023,
Twitter.com/CancilleriaVE/status/1634375395565789184?s=20, March 10, 2023.
[42] Twitter.com/m_m_esmaeili/status/1634530616258461702?s=20, March 11, 2023,
Twitter.com/Iran_GOV/status/1634067787600523264?s=20, March 10, 2023.
[43] Twitter.com/Iran_GOV/status/1634438679518232580?s=20, March 11, 2023.
[44] Twitter.com/luchaalmada/status/1621650277299257351?s=20, February 3, 2023.
[45] @ luchaalmada, Twitter.com/luchaalmada; on Instagram, @ luchaalmada15,
Instagram.com/luchaalmada15?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==. In addition to Minister of
Communications and Information, Alfred Nazareth is also Vice President of
Communication, Culture and Tourism of Venezuela.
[46] Mppre.gob.ve/2023/03/09/vicepresidente-nanez-sostuvo-encuentro-ministro-cultura-iran/,
March 9, 2023.
Twitter.com/Iran_GOV/status/1634432486485655552?s=20, March 11, 2023.
[47] Twitter.com/JameneiM/status/1634562045503782912?s=20, March 11, 2023.
[48] Twitter.com/yvangil/status/1634007759073996806?s=20, March 9, 2023.
Twitter.com/CancilleriaVE/status/1634002613778653184?s=20, March 9, 2023.
[49] Twitter.com/JameneiM/status/1634562045503782912?s=20, March 11, 2023.
[50] In Spanish: Ministerio del Poder Popular para la Comunicación e Información
(MIPPCI); on Twitter, @ Mippcivzla, Twitter.com/Mippcivzla; on Instagram, @
mippcivzla, Instagram.com/mippcivzla?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==
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[54] Ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3304024,00.html, February 1, 2008. Moshe
Sharon is a world-renowned expert on Islam often considered to be Israel's
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[57] Youtube.com/watch?v=unE5md_Euk8, Aprik 15, 2022.
[58] Youtube.com/watch?v=AYIxndqkiRc, October 16, 2022.
[59] Youtube.com/watch?v=rupIpiSBfJw, October 21, 2022.
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Instagram.com/p/CrcjhcIO5fH/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==, April 24, 2023,
Instagram.com/reel/CrUdW-PNVwa/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==, April 21, 2023,
Instagram.com/p/CrOpOk6O4mA/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==, April 19, 2023,
Instagram.com/p/CrL-pdsuxf-/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==, April 18, 2023,
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