English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For April 26/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
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Bible Quotations For today
I am the bread of life. Whoever comes to me will never be hungry, and whoever believes in me will never be thirsty
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 06/34-40/:"They said to him, ‘Sir, give us this bread always.’Jesus said to them, ‘I am the bread of life. Whoever comes to me will never be hungry, and whoever believes in me will never be thirsty. But I said to you that you have seen me and yet do not believe. Everything that the Father gives me will come to me, and anyone who comes to me I will never drive away; for I have come down from heaven, not to do my own will, but the will of him who sent me. And this is the will of him who sent me, that I should lose nothing of all that he has given me, but raise it up on the last day. This is indeed the will of my Father, that all who see the Son and believe in him may have eternal life; and I will raise them up on the last day.’"

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 25-26/2023
What are the 'written guarantees' submitted by Franjieh?
Next ten days might witness presidential 'surprise'
Raja Salameh fails to appear before European judicial team
Lebanon Central Bank Chief’s Brother Skips European Fraud Probe Hearing
Lebanese, EU legal teams to cooperate in Central Bank probe
The first batch of Lebanese nationals arrives in Lebanon from Sudan
Lebanese evacuees flee Sudan to Saudi Arabia
'Difficult days': Lebanese evacuees recount risky escape from Sudan
French presidential initiative faces domestic, American opposition
Report: Franjieh told Durel that PM should be named by parliament
Amnesty urges Lebanon to 'immediately' stop deporting Syrians
Khalaf Al Habtoor announces the reopening of the retail space at Hilton Beirut Habtoor Grand
LAF-Navy showcases capabilities, shows step towards achieving maritime security goals
Samy Gemayel says Lebanon's capacity can no longer bear Syrian presence
Oil prices edge lower in Lebanon
Amnesty International urges Lebanon to stop deporting Syrians
Lebanese evacuated from Sudan return home

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on April 25-26/2023
Sudan's warring rivals agree 72-hour ceasefire
Netanyahu Urges US Congressmen to Prevent Iran from Obtaining Nuclear Weapons
Israel marks Memorial Day plagued by divisions, violence
Iran Imposes Sanctions on EU, UK
Explainer-What is Nagorno-Karabakh - and why are tensions rising?
Turkey, Russia, Iran, Syria hold 'constructive talks'
Attacker Fires at Israeli Runners on West Bank Road Wounding One
EU voices optimism on Ukraine grain transit deal
Drought Hits 60% of Tunisia’s Grains
BRICS expansion: A game changer for global economy and USD
Macron’s European army is an insult to Nato and the Americans who pay for it

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 25-26/2023
Re-integrating Syria into the region will require complex feats of diplomacy/Raghida Dergham/The National/April 25/2023
Palestinians: The Real Human Rights Violations/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/April 25, 2023
DeSantis Faces Republican Scrutiny on Issues While Trump Skates/Maggie Haberman/The New York Times/April, 25/2023
Will Biden Face a Democratic Challenger?/Ross Douthat/The New York Times/April, 25/2023
The Fighting in Sudan Threatens Peace Efforts with Israel/Ehud Yaari/The Washington Institute/April 25/2023
Jordan’s retreat from China on 5G could signal a growing distance/David Schenker/The Washington Institute/April 25/2023
How Putin spent 20 years rebuilding Russia's military 'and then just simply destroyed it' in Ukraine, according to an expert who watched it happen/Christopher Woody/Business Insider/April 25, 2023

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 25-26/2023
What are the 'written guarantees' submitted by Franjieh?
Naharnet/April 25/2023
According to media reports, Marada Movement chief and presidential candidate Suleiman Franjieh submitted “written guarantees” to French presidential advisor Patrick Durel during their latest meeting in Paris.Below is the list of “guarantees” as published by Asharq al-Awsat newspaper on Tuesday:
- Granting the government extraordinary powers
- Rejecting to give a one-third-plus-one share to any party in the new government
- Rotating the ministerial portfolios allocated to sects
- Launching dialogue over a defense strategy
- Continuing the implementation of the Taif Accord
- Naming a new army chief and a new central bank governor
- Engaging in fruitful negotiations with the International Monetary Fund
- Engaging in negotiations with Syria to demarcate the land and sea borders
- Controlling the Lebanese-Syrian border to halt smuggling
- Committing to Resolution 1701
- Mending the Lebanese-Arab ties and combating the smuggling of narcotics
- Launching dialogue between Lebanon and Syria over the return of refugees

Next ten days might witness presidential 'surprise'
Naharnet/April 25/2023
The next ten days might witness a presidential “surprise” amid behind-the-scenes political contacts, political sources told the al-Anbaa news portal of the Progressive Socialist Party. Informed sources meanwhile told ad-Diyar newspaper that the past seven days witnessed the emergence of a new presidential initiative. The aforementioned initiative calls for each of the main political camps to have its declared presidential candidate before heading to parliament for a presidential election session, the sources said. The candidate who wins the most votes would be declared president, the sources added. “The leaders of the opposition will be pressed to unify their stance and endorse a single candidate,” the sources said. “In parallel, a deal is being prepared to distribute the first-grade state jobs on the political parties, in an attempt to facilitate the presidential election and guarantee the interests of the parties concerned,” the sources added, noting that the posts would include the central bank governor, the army chief, the security appointments and the ministries concerned with the IMF negotiations. “The end of the month of May will be decisive in terms of ending the vacuum and all the fierce stances of the opposition’s political leaders are aimed at drawing proposals and achieving bigger gains,” the sources said, noting that “30 centrist MPs will decide the outcome of the battle.”

Raja Salameh fails to appear before European judicial team
Naharnet/April 25/2023
Central bank chief Riad Salameh's brother, Raja, failed Tuesday to appear before a European judicial delegation as his lawyer submitted a medical report. Last month, his brother appeared for two consecutive days and for the first time, before European investigators including French Judge Aude Buresi, through Judge Abu Samra, acting as a go-between. The judges were probing his personal wealth and allegedly suspicious financial transfers abroad. Salameh faces allegations of crimes including embezzlement, money laundering and tax evasion in separate probes in Lebanon and abroad. His brother Raja is accused of complicity. The European delegation returned Monday in Lebanon, to probe Raja, Salameh's associate Marianne Hoayek and others. The judges will also probe caretaker Minister of Finance Youssef Khalil, former Central Bank official Raja bou Assali, Assurance Leader at Ernst & Young Walid Nakfour, Partner at Deloitte M.E. Nada Maalouf, according to journalist Mounir Younes.

Lebanon Central Bank Chief’s Brother Skips European Fraud Probe Hearing
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 25 April, 2023
The brother of Lebanon's central bank governor did not attend a hearing in Beirut on Tuesday with European investigators probing whether the siblings embezzled and laundered hundreds of millions of dollars in public funds over more than a decade. Governor Riad Salameh is being investigated alongside his brother Raja in Lebanon and in at least five European countries over allegedly taking more than $300 million from the central bank by collecting commissions as a fee from bond buyers then transferring the funds to Forry Associates, owned by Raja. The brothers deny wrongdoing. A lawyer for Raja, 62, did not respond to a request for comment on Tuesday. European investigators arrived in Beirut on Monday and were set to question Raja as part of the probe on Tuesday morning. He did not attend the hearing and a senior judicial source told Reuters that his lawyer attended briefly to say he was ill. The governor, 72, has previously denied embezzlement, saying the collected commissions were not public funds. According to French court documents seen by Reuters, French prosecutors say money from Forry was used to make "numerous" real estate purchases across Europe and the United Kingdom. The documents say prosecutors suspect Riad used fake banking documents in Raja's name to cover up illicit sources of wealth. European investigators questioned the governor in Beirut over two days in March, asking about the central bank's links to Forry, his assets abroad, the source of his wealth and transfers he made to associates and relatives. The investigators have returned to pursue interrogations of Raja and of an assistant, Marianne Houayek. The three have been charged with financial crimes in two separate cases in Lebanon but have not yet been formally and publicly charged in the investigating European countries.
French prosecutors have informed Riad that they intend to press charges of fraud and aggravated money laundering during a planned hearing in France on May 16. A lawyer for Salameh said earlier this month his client had not yet decided if he would attend the French hearing. Last spring, Raja was held in Lebanese custody for nearly two months over charges of "complicity in illicit enrichment" that also involved his brother. Raja was released on a record bail of 100 billion Lebanese pounds, or around $3.7 million at the market exchange rate at the time.

Lebanese, EU legal teams to cooperate in Central Bank probe
Associated Press/April 25/2023
Lebanese authorities and a European judicial team on Tuesday agreed to exchange information about their separate corruption probes of Lebanon's Central Bank governor, officials said. The announcement came during a visit by a European delegation from France, Germany, and Luxembourg — its third visit to Lebanon to interrogate suspects and witnesses in an ongoing investigation of Governor Riad Salameh and associates over several financial crimes. The officials met after Raja Salameh, the brother of the 72-year-old embattled governor, did not attend a scheduled hearing on Tuesday morning, citing an illness, Lebanese judicial officials said. They spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the case. The governor and his brother are accused of embezzlement, money laundering, and illicit enrichment. The European delegation first visited Lebanon in January to interrogate Riad Salameh and others from Lebanon's financial and banking sector, including some of the governor's close associates, in an ongoing probe into the laundering of some $330 million. The three European governments in March 2022 froze more than $130 million in assets linked to the investigation. Separately, France has questioned the chairman of Lebanon's AM Bank, Marwan Kheireddine, on several charges, including money laundering. Reports in Lebanon say the governor and his associates had used commercial banks to siphon off public money. In a two-day visit in March, the European delegation questioned Riad Salameh for eight hours, mainly about the Central Bank's assets and investments outside Lebanon, including about a Paris apartment and Forry Associates Ltd, a brokerage firm owned by Raja Salameh, who is to appear before French prosecutors in mid-May. Salameh has repeatedly denied all allegations against him, insisting that his wealth comes from his previous job as an investment banker for Merrill Lynch, inherited properties, and through investments. Other legal proceedings against Salameh are also underway in Lebanon. In late February, Beirut's public prosecutor, Raja Hamoush, charged Riad Salameh, his brother, and their close associate Marianne Hoayek with corruption, including embezzling public funds, forgery, illicit enrichment, money-laundering and violation of tax laws. Salameh — who has held his post for almost 30 years — was once hailed as the guardian of Lebanon's financial stability. However, since Lebanon's economic crisis erupted in 2019, many have criticized the governor, saying he precipitated the meltdown. The crisis has plunged three-quarters of the Mediterranean country's population of 6 million into poverty. Salameh's term as governor is to expire in July, and while there is speculation that the authorities may renew it, he has said in interviews that he plans to step down.

The first batch of Lebanese nationals arrives in Lebanon from Sudan
LBCI/April 25/2023
A Middle East Airlines plane arrived at 3:00 pm on Tuesday from Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, carrying the first batch of Lebanese, Palestinians, and Syrians who were evacuated from Sudan, and they counted 12 people. They were received in the salon of honor at the airport by Caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdallah Bou Habib, Lebanon's Ambassador to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Fawzi Kabbara, and Secretary General of the High Relief Commission, Major General Muhammad Khair. The second batch, which includes 32 people, will arrive at 11:30 pm. During the reception, the Foreign Affairs Minister thanked Saudi Arabia, which gave priority to evacuating Lebanese nationals from Sudan, and stressed that "with agreement and cooperation, the impossible can be achieved," noting "our unity always saves us and makes us successful."

Lebanese evacuees flee Sudan to Saudi Arabia
LBCI/April 25/2023
Twelve Lebanese people fled the ongoing clashes in Sudan to seek refuge in Saudi Arabia. Just like the Lebanese citizens who came before them, they left with their belongings on a bus, which was not easy to organize. Their destination was Port Sudan, where they were met by the Lebanese ambassador to Sudan, Dima Haddad. She assisted them in evacuation to Jeddah in cooperation with Saudi Arabian authorities. Before this group's departure, the first batch of evacuees arrived safely in Jeddah on a Saudi Royal Navy ship. Although their arrival was delayed for a few hours due to weather conditions affecting maritime traffic, the most important thing was that they arrived safely. Upon arrival in Jeddah, the Lebanese consul, Walid Manqara, was there to greet them. The Saudi authorities provided accommodation for them, as they do for all Arab and foreign nationals who seek evacuation from Sudan. The evacuation continues under a ceasefire that is supposed to have started at midnight on Monday and will last for 72 hours. The evacuation is a crucial step in ensuring the safety and well-being of Lebanese citizens amid the ongoing conflict.

'Difficult days': Lebanese evacuees recount risky escape from Sudan
Agence France Presse/April 25/2023
Clutching overstuffed suitcases, bleary-eyed civilians including Lebanese described a harrowing escape from violence-wracked Sudan across the Red Sea to Saudi Arabia, sobbing at memories of air strikes and urban combat. Elderly women in wheelchairs and babies asleep in their parents' arms were among nearly 200 people from 14 countries who disembarked from a naval frigate in the coastal city of Jeddah on Monday night after daring –- and draining –- journeys to safety. "We travelled a long way from Khartoum to Port Sudan. It took us around 10 or 11 hours," said Lebanese national Suhaib Aicha, who has operated a plastics factory in Sudan for more than a decade. "It took us another 20 hours on this ship from Port Sudan to Jeddah," he told AFP as his young daughter cried on his shoulders. "There were many difficult moments, all of which involved fear, tension and anxiety," said another Lebanese passenger, a woman who declined to give her name. "We were not sleeping, eating or drinking. We lived through many difficult days."Fighting broke out in Sudan on April 15 between forces loyal to army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and his deputy turned rival Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, who commands the powerful paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). At least 427 people have been killed and more than 3,700 wounded, according to U.N. agencies, and many are now grappling with acute shortages of water, food, medicines and fuel as well as power and internet blackouts.
Late on Monday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Burhan and Daglo had agreed to a 72-hour ceasefire. Even so, those who reached Saudi soil on Monday said they were grateful to be out of a country where the doctors' union has reported that "morgues are full" and "corpses litter the streets".
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah bou Habib thanked Saudi Arabia for evacuating Lebanese citizens from Port Sudan to Jeddah on its expense. Twelve Lebanese, Syrian and Palestinian nationals arrived in Lebanon this afternoon via Middle East airlines. A second batch of 32, including 16 Lebanese, will arrive later at night, while around 15 Lebanese remain in Sudan, but will be evacuated soon, officials said.
Saudi 'leverage'
Saudi Arabia announced the first successful civilian evacuation from Sudan on Saturday, welcoming 150 people including foreign diplomats and officials in Jeddah. Earlier on Monday, a C-130 Hercules military plane flew dozens of South Korean civilians, among them a small child and a nun in a white-and-blue habit, to Jeddah's King Abdullah Air Base. Saudi state media have provided wall-to-wall coverage of the operation as well as statements of gratitude from countries whose citizens have benefited. As the naval frigate approached Jeddah port on Monday night, the state-affiliated Al-Ekhbariya channel broadcast images of passengers waving their arms and smiling, while others recorded the scene on their smartphones. Staring into the camera, a Saudi man waved the green, sword-emblazoned Saudi flag in one hand and his green passport in another, declaring: "This is the strongest passport in the world."Writing in the private newspaper Okaz, columnist Abdo Khal said Saudi Arabia's relatively speedy organization of evacuation planes and boats highlighted the kingdom's "international value". "Definitely this shows an eagerness by the Saudi kingdom to position itself as a central actor in regional crisis situations and to take advantage of the leverage it has over both sides of this conflict," said Umar Karim, an expert on Saudi politics at the University of Birmingham. But Saudi officials are coming under pressure to do more than facilitate evacuations, given their close ties to the two generals whose troops are fighting it out in and beyond Khartoum. "Saudi Arabia is a critical player in the ceasefire diplomacy in Sudan," Alan Boswell of the International Crisis Group told AFP. "African and Western governments are looking to Riyadh for help in convincing Sudan's military to give talks a chance."

French presidential initiative faces domestic, American opposition
Naharnet/April 25/2023
Saudis are still taking their time before giving a final decision regarding the election of Marada leader Suleiman Franjieh, ad-Diyar newspaper said. The daily added Tuesday that the Americans, for their part, do not prefer the election of Franjieh, and are not supportive of the French deal involving the election of Franjieh as president and the appointment of Nawaf Salam as premier. In addition to the U.S. opposition, France is facing Lebanese domestic obstacles, as the two largest Christian parties are also opposing the election of Franjieh, while Hezbollah is refusing to discuss any other names.
A session that would elect Franjieh might be obstructed due to lack of quorum, especially after Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea clearly announced that his bloc would boycott such a session.

Report: Franjieh told Durel that PM should be named by parliament
Naharnet/April 25/2023
Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh is at the top of the presidential candidates list of French President Emmanuel Macron, a political source said. As for Franjieh’s recent meeting with French presidential advisor Patrick Durel, the Marada leader told the latter that he prefers to leave the naming of the premier to the binding parliamentary consultations that the president would conduct upon his election, the source told Asharq al-Awsat newspaper in remarks published Tuesday. France had recently proposed a presidential deal involving the election of Franjieh as president and the appointment of Nawaf Salam as premier.

Amnesty urges Lebanon to 'immediately' stop deporting Syrians
Agence France Presse/April 25/2023
Amnesty International has called on Lebanon to "immediately stop forcibly deporting refugees back to Syria" after dozens were returned to the war-torn country amid growing anti-Syrian sentiment. On Friday security officials and a humanitarian source said Lebanese authorities sent dozens of Syrians back to the country, despite warnings they faced grave danger there. The Syrian refugees "are at risk of torture or persecution at the hands of the Syrian government upon return," Amnesty said, describing the situation as "alarming."The London-based rights group said the Syrians were expelled following raids on their homes in various parts of the country, adding that those who had "entered the country irregularly or held expired residency cards" were deported. It cited the brother of one refugee as saying that the Lebanese Army drove them "directly to the border and handed them over to the Syrian army." Hundreds of thousands of Syrians fled to neighboring Lebanon after the country's civil war began in 2011. Lebanon -- which is facing its own protracted political and economic crises --- hosts around two million Syrian refugees, authorities say.Nearly 830,000 are registered with the United Nations.
Lebanese authorities have long pushed for Syrian refugees to return, and have made several repatriation efforts they describe as voluntary, but which rights groups say are forced. "No refugee should be sent back to a place where their life will be at risk," said Amnesty's Aya Majzoub, deputy director for the Middle East and North Africa. She warned that the deportation constituted a violation of the principle of non-refoulement. "Instead of living in fear after escaping atrocities in Syria, refugees living in Lebanon should be protected from arbitrary raids and unlawful deportations," she said. Several Arab countries have recently moved to reestablish ties with Syria following years of political isolation after the war began.

Khalaf Al Habtoor announces the reopening of the retail space at Hilton Beirut Habtoor Grand
LBCI/April 25/2023
- The Sooq Avenue will be Launched by the end of 2023
- Tenants will benefit from a 12-months grace period
25 April 2023, Beirut, Lebanon - The UAE businessman Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor, Founding Chairman of Al Habtoor Group (AHG), announced the reopening of the retail space at AHG touristic complex in Sin El Fil, Beirut, which includes Hilton Beirut Habtoor Grand Hotel and Hilton Beirut Metropolitan Palace. Al Habtoor said: "We have a great love for Lebanon, and I am totally confident that better days are ahead. I said earlier that Al Habtoor Group was looking for a Lebanese competent party to reopen the mall, in order to create more job opportunities for Lebanese youth and ensure a suitable source of income for hundreds of Lebanese households."He added: "Today I announce that we have taken serious steps to reopen the mall under a new name, the Sooq Avenue. To this end, we have signed a contract with a new company that employs an elite group of educated and patriotic Lebanese youth, and whose vision is in line with AHG aspirations. The first goal is to create job opportunities and contribute to the economic recovery, which comes first before seeking financial profit. The launching of the new space will take place within a period of one year."As a good gesture to support tenants and shop owners, and "given that the current economic situation might discourage tenants and shop owners from opening new branches in Lebanon, we decided to give a 12-months grace period to tenants to alleviate the burdens of the current crisis," said Al Habtoor. Earlier this year, Al Habtoor tweeted: "We are reopening the Hilton Beirut Metropolitan Palace in Lebanon, to support the Lebanese economy, create job opportunities for the Lebanese youth and advance growth in the country." Al Habtoor concluded: "I call upon businessmen in Lebanon and abroad to join this initiative and contribute to the recovery of the Lebanese economy."

LAF-Navy showcases capabilities, shows step towards achieving maritime security goals
LBC/April 25/2023
On Tuesday, the Lebanese Armed Forces Navy (LAF-Navy) demonstrated its capabilities in Maritime Interdiction Operations with support from the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) Maritime Task Force (MTF). During the event, attended by the LAF-Navy Commander Colonel Haitham Dinnawi, UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force Commander General Aroldo Lazaro, and MTF Commander Rear Admiral Busse, the visitors were provided with live impressions of the LAF-Navy's capabilities, including hailing, boarding and inspection of vessels. According to UNIFIL, the event highlighted LAF-Navy's readiness and interoperability between it and LAF-Air Force. Since MTF began the assessment period in December 2022, the LAF-Navy has made advancements in commanding Maritime Interdiction Operations with its support at sea. "Currently LAF-Navy has the responsibility of the MIO command over the middle and northern thirds of its territorial waters. It is projected that within the next few months, MIO responsibility for the southern third will be handed over to LAF-Navy as well," said UNIFIL in a press release. The press release also emphasized the commitment to UNIFIL and MTF to support Lebanon's efforts to build its naval capacity and perform its maritime security duties. "Part of UNIFIL's mandate is to support Lebanon in building its naval capacity to effectively patrol its sovereign waters and perform its maritime security duties independently and autonomously. The LAF-Navy's demonstration of their capabilities is a significant step towards achieving this goal," added the peacekeeping mission.

Samy Gemayel says Lebanon's capacity can no longer bear Syrian presence
LBCI/April 25/2023
The head of the Kataeb Party, Samy Gemayel, indicated that what Lebanon is exposed to in the file of the Syrian refugees has become different from what it was in the past, pointing out that Lebanon received Syrian refugees who are at risk of death in light of the Syrian war in 2011, just as the Lebanese people received the oppressed Syrians. He stressed that Lebanon dealt with them in the best way compared to the rest of the other countries that, while "giving us lessons in human rights," closed their borders in their face, while Lebanon received more than one million and 800 thousand refugees.
During a press conference held in Saifi, after he met with UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Joanna Wronecka, Gemayel stated that this meeting was an opportunity to express concerns on the strategy of the international community's dealings with Lebanon regarding the file of the Syrian presence in Lebanon. He explained: "We say "existence" because we can no longer talk about asylum or displacement, but rather economic migration." Expressing that what Lebanon is exposed to regarding Syrian refugees has become different from what it was in the past, adding, "the first part of this talk is directed to the international community, especially the European Union, which bears primary responsibility in this file because it greatly supports UNHCR policy." He continued that Lebanon is facing a new phase because the hostilities in Syria have ended in the presence of limited events, but there are no longer battles and open wars, and therefore a large part of the refugees can return to their country. On the subject of municipalities' powers, he said: "Municipalities can exercise their powers and preserve the interest of citizens concerning security and residence within the scope of the town, and we call on them to take all measures to protect the people of the regions by all available means." Regarding the removal of refugee status, he said: "The refugee status must be dropped from everyone who enters surreptitiously into Lebanon, and everyone who enters and exits from Lebanon, and all of this is available in the law, and the security forces and the government must implement these articles." He added, "We encourage the voluntary return to Syria, and instead of giving aid in Lebanon, it must be paid in Syria, on the condition that the refugees return to their country." According to Gemayel, Lebanon faces several problems, including the problem of Hezbollah's dominance over decision-making, the issue of rebuilding institutions and implementing economic reforms, and structural problems that need to be addressed. In order to avoid any clashes between the Lebanese and the refugees and its exploitation in the future, he asked the state and the international community to play their role. He concluded by stressing that the state has all the legal arsenal to carry out its work and that the international community has all the arsenal of arguments to change its policy on this issue and encourage the voluntary return to Syria, which is its duty.

Oil prices edge lower in Lebanon
NNA/Tuesday, 25 April, 2023
Oil prices in Lebanon have dropped on Tuesday as the price of the can of gasoline (95 octanes) has decreased by LBP 30,000 and (98 octanes) has decreased by LBP 30,000. The price of diesel has decreased by LBP 16,000, and the gas canister has decreased by LBP 29,000.
Consequently, the new prices are as follows:
95 octanes: LBP 1,832,000
98 octanes: LBP 1,874,000
Diesel: LBP 1,578,000
Gas: LBP 1,081,000

Amnesty International urges Lebanon to stop deporting Syrians
NNA/Tuesday, 25 April, 2023
Amnesty International called on Lebanon to “immediately stop forcibly deporting refugees back to Syria” after dozens were returned to the war-torn country amid growing anti-Syrian sentiment. On Friday security officials and a humanitarian source said Lebanese authorities sent dozens of Syrians back to the country, despite warnings they faced grave danger there. The Syrian refugees “are at risk of torture or persecution at the hands of the Syrian government upon return,” Amnesty said Monday, describing the situation as “alarming.”The London-based rights group said the Syrians were expelled following raids on their homes in various parts of the country, adding that those who had “entered the country irregularly or held expired residency cards” were deported. It cited the brother of one refugee as saying that the Lebanese armed forces drove them “directly to the border and handed them over to the Syrian army.”
Hundreds of thousands of Syrians fled to neighboring Lebanon after the country’s civil war began in 2011 with the brutal suppression of anti-regime protests. Lebanon -- which is facing its own protracted political and economic crises --- hosts around two million Syrian refugees, authorities say.
Nearly 830,000 are registered with the United Nations. Lebanese authorities have long pushed for Syrian refugees to return and have made several repatriation efforts they describe as voluntary, but which rights groups say are forced. “No refugee should be sent back to a place where their life will be at risk,” said Amnesty’s Aya Majzoub, deputy director for the Middle East and North Africa. She warned that the deportation constituted a violation of the principle of non-refoulement. “Instead of living in fear after escaping atrocities in Syria, refugees living in Lebanon should be protected from arbitrary raids and unlawful deportations,” she said. Several Arab countries have recently moved to reestablish ties with Syria following years of political isolation after the war began.--AFP

Lebanese evacuated from Sudan return home
Arab News/April 25, 2023
BEIRUT: Two groups of Lebanese and Palestinian refugees flew to Beirut on Tuesday after they were evacuated from Sudan. They arrived at Rafic Hariri International Airport carried by two Middle East Airlines flights from Jeddah. The first batch of 12 Lebanese arrived at 3 p.m., and the second plane arrived at 11 p.m., carrying 32 passengers, 12 of whom were Palestinian. The evacuees were welcomed at the airport by caretaker Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib, Lebanon’s Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Fawzi Kabbara, and the Secretary-General of the High Relief Commission Maj. Gen. Mohammed Khair. On Monday, a group of Lebanese, including businessmen and their families, were evacuated from Sudan. Bou Habib said the evacuation process was both delicate and tiring, praising the Saudi efforts to evacuate people from Sudan.
“The first stage of the evacuation process was successful thanks to the assistance of the UAE, which took over the evacuation from Khartoum to Port Sudan, and the second stage was undertaken by Saudi Arabia, from Port Sudan to Lebanon,” he said. Bou Habib added: “We are grateful for the assistance provided to the Lebanese who were evacuated, and I want to especially thank Saudi Arabia for prioritizing the Lebanese. Jordan also offered us assistance, but its capabilities are limited in terms of warplanes.”The evacuees were transferred from Port Sudan to Jeddah on board a private Saudi ship of the Royal Saudi Navy. Bou Habib said: “So far, we have evacuated about 60 Lebanese, including Palestinians. Four Syrians have decided to stay in Saudi Arabia, which granted them visas to stay in the country for a full month, although we did not object to them coming to Lebanon. If there are more Lebanese stuck in Sudan, we hope they will contact us so that we can arrange their evacuation.
“The Lebanese ambassador to Sudan, Dima Haddad, who moved to Port Sudan, will return to Lebanon with the evacuation of the last batch of Lebanese to Beirut. “A convoy that includes 16 Lebanese set off from Khartoum but has not yet arrived in Port Sudan, and we are waiting for it.”
The Lebanese community in Sudan is comprised of approximately 100 people, most of whom are businessmen and their families. Some were spending the Eid Al-Fitr vacation in Beirut when the clashes broke out in Khartoum. The evacuation process began at dawn on Sunday with the Lebanese community gathering in front of the Rotana Hotel in Khartoum, to embark on a land trip toward the Coral Port Sudan Hotel, a journey that takes several hours and is fraught with dangers. Maj. Gen. Khair said: “The evacuees are mostly businessmen and employees in different companies in Sudan.”
Hassan Attia, a Lebanese who was returning with his wife and their child, described the situation in Khartoum as “terrifying.” He said they encountered several roadblocks during their 18-hour journey between Khartoum and Port Sudan. Another evacuee pointed out the Lebanese businessmen's concern over their property and money in Khartoum, which have become at risk. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati thanked King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for the “special care with which the Kingdom surrounded the Lebanese evacuees, and the efforts of the Saudi Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense, and everyone who contributed to the evacuation of the Lebanese and ensured their safe return.”Mikati said: “Saudi Arabia has been and still is the top supporter of Lebanon and the Lebanese in all circumstances. The Lebanese people, from all sects, look forward to returning the love that the Kingdom has shown them, as a token of appreciation and loyalty.”

Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on April 25-26/2023
Sudan's warring rivals agree 72-hour ceasefire
Agence France Presse/Tuesday, 25 April, 2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/117654/117654/
A U.S.-brokered 72-hour ceasefire between Sudan's warring generals officially came into effect Tuesday after 10 days of urban combat killed hundreds, wounded thousands and sparked a mass exodus of foreigners. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) agreed to the ceasefire "following intense negotiations", Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement shortly before the truce took effect at midnight (2200 GMT Monday). Previous bids to pause the conflict failed to take hold, but both sides confirmed they had agreed to the three-day halt. "This ceasefire aims to establish humanitarian corridors, allowing citizens and residents to access essential resources, healthcare, and safe zones, while also evacuating diplomatic missions," the RSF paramilitary tweeted. In a statement on Facebook, the SAF said it would also abide by the ceasefire on condition its rivals did so. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned earlier that Sudan was on "the edge of the abyss" and that the violence "could engulf the whole region and beyond". The fighting has pitted forces loyal to army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan against those of his former deputy Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, who commands the RSF. The RSF emerged from the Janjaweed militia that then-president Omar al-Bashir unleashed in Darfur, leading to war crimes charges against Bashir and others. The Forces of Freedom and Change, the main civilian bloc which the two generals ousted from power in a 2021 coup, said the truce would allow for "dialogue on the modalities of a permanent ceasefire." At least 427 people have been killed and more than 3,700 wounded, according to U.N. agencies.Among the latest to die was the assistant administrative attaché at Cairo's embassy in Khartoum, Egypt's foreign ministry said.
'Corpses litter the streets'
The official was killed while heading from home to the embassy to follow up on evacuation procedures, it said. More than 4,000 people have fled the country in foreign-organized evacuations that began on Saturday. The United States and European, Middle Eastern, African and Asian nations launched emergency missions to bring to safety their embassy staff and Sudan-based citizens by road, air and sea. But millions of Sudanese are unable to flee the country, which has a history of military coups. They are trying to survive acute shortages of water, food, medicine and fuel as well as power and internet blackouts. U.N. agencies reported some Sudanese civilians were able to escape "to Chad, Egypt and South Sudan". "We must all do everything within our power to pull Sudan back from the edge of the abyss," Guterres said. He had also, again, called for a ceasefire. Britain requested an emergency UN Security Council meeting on Sudan, which was expected to take place Tuesday, according to a diplomat.
'Unspeakable destruction'
A U.N. convoy carrying 700 people completed an arduous 850-kilometre (530-mile) road trip to Port Sudan on the Red Sea coast from the capital, where they left behind gunfire and explosions. The United Nations head of mission Volker Perthes said the convoy arrived safely. A U.N. statement separately said he and other key staff will "remain in Sudan and will continue to work towards a resolution to the current crisis". With Khartoum airport disabled after battles that left charred aircraft on the tarmac, many foreigners were airlifted from smaller airstrips to countries including Djibouti and Jordan. U.S. special forces swooped in with Chinook helicopters Sunday to rescue diplomats and their dependents, while Britain launched a similar rescue mission. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said more than 1,000 EU citizens had been taken out during a "long and intense weekend" involving airlift missions by France, Germany and others.
China said it had "safely evacuated" a first group of citizens and would "try every means to protect the lives, properties and safety of 1,500 plus Chinese compatriots in Sudan". Japan said it had evacuated 45 of its nationals and their spouses and temporarily closed its embassy in Khartoum. The capital, a city of five million, has endured "more than a week of unspeakable destruction", Norway's ambassador Endre Stiansen wrote on Twitter after his evacuation.
'Nowhere is safe'
Nearly 200 people from 14 countries arrived in the Saudi port of Jeddah on Monday night after crossing the Red Sea in a naval frigate. "We travelled a long way from Khartoum to Port Sudan. It took us around 10 or 11 hours," Lebanese national Suhaib Aicha told AFP as his young daughter cried on his shoulders. "It took us another 20 hours on this ship from Port Sudan to Jeddah." Those Sudanese who can afford to are also fleeing Khartoum on crowded buses for the more than 900-kilometre desert drive north to Egypt. Among the 800,000 South Sudanese refugees who previously fled civil war in their own country, some are choosing to return, with women and children crossing the border, said the U.N. refugee agency. In the capital, street battles have left the sky often blackened by smoke from shelled buildings and torched shops. "There was a rocket strike in our neighborhood it is like nowhere is safe," said resident Tagreed Abdin, an architect. Experts have long drawn links between the RSF and Russian mercenary group Wagner. Blinken earlier on Monday voiced "deep concern" that Wagner risked aggravating the war in Sudan. The military toppled Bashir in April 2019 following mass citizen protests that raised hopes for a transition to democracy. The two generals seized power in the 2021 coup, but later fell out, most recently over the planned integration of the RSF into the regular army.

Netanyahu Urges US Congressmen to Prevent Iran from Obtaining Nuclear Weapons
Tel Aviv, Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 25 April, 2023
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed with a Democratic US Congressional delegation on Monday the need to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. The delegation was led by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. The meeting was the first between the Israeli PM and US officials after reports said last month that Tel Aviv informed the American administration and several European countries that it would resort to military action if diplomatic efforts to curb Iran's nuclear program fail. Last week, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi threatened Iran's enemies, particularly Israel, warning that the “smallest mistake against the security of Iran will result in the destruction of Haifa and Tel Aviv.”On Saturday, General Ramezan Sharif, the spokesman for the Iranian Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), warned Israel against any military action against Iran. On Sunday, the Israeli military said it was bracing for possible security instability in the Red Sea area given the Iranian naval presence there, reported Israel’s iNews24 website. Citing intelligence assessments, the report spoke of direct and indirect threats to Israel from Iran’s proxies in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza. “One danger is civilian-Iranian ships that have been converted for military function, operating in the Red Sea, outfitted with surface-to-sea missiles, surface-to-air missiles, and UAVs,” the website wrote.

Israel marks Memorial Day plagued by divisions, violence
Associated Press/Tuesday, 25 April, 2023
Israel marked its Memorial Day for fallen soldiers and victims of militant attacks on Tuesday against the backdrop of some of the deepest political divisions in its history and soaring tensions with Palestinians.Memorial Day is one of the most solemn moments on Israel's national calendar, in honor of its 24,213 war dead and 4,255 attack victims. People came to a standstill when a two-minute siren sounded late in the morning. Motorists and pedestrians halted in the street, stopped their cars and stood with heads bowed. Bereaved families visited cemeteries and attended ceremonies while television and radio programming shifted to somber music and documentaries about slain soldiers. In a speech at the official ceremony at a Jerusalem military cemetery, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recalled the lives of several fallen soldiers and spoke of the "brotherhood" of the Israeli people, a kinship fortified by military service that is compulsory for most Jews. "We will stand together as brothers and ensure our independence from generation to generation," Netanyahu said. "We will bow our heads to the bravery of the fallen." This year, Memorial Day is tainted by deep divisions roiling Israel over a contentious plan by Netanyahu's government to overhaul the judiciary. "Citizens of Israel, the siren this year, the intensely Israeli signature call, is a wake-up call for all of us. The cost of internal strife is heavy," Israel's figurehead President Isaac Herzog said late Monday at the official ceremony marking the start of the day of remembrance.
Herzog, who is mediating talks between the government and the opposition to try to find a compromise on the legal changes, said he was working to preserve Israel as a Jewish and democratic state. The solemnity of the occasion is typically a moment of national unity. At sunset, the mourning turns to exuberance for Independence Day. This year, as Israel turns 75 years old, it has much to celebrate. But all of it is shadowed by a bitter split over the legal overhaul plan. Fighter pilots have threatened to stop reporting for duty. The nation's leaders have openly warned of civil war, and families of fallen soldiers have called on politicians to stay away from the ceremonies. Many Israelis wonder if the deep split can ever heal. Netanyahu has paused the overhaul push after weeks of massive protests that shut down highways, sparked a short general strike and spooked investors. The plan would give Netanyahu's government, the most right-wing in Israeli history, power to overturn court decisions and appoint judges. Memorial Day this year also comes as Israel and the Palestinians in the West Bank are embroiled in some of the deadliest violence in that area in years. Just before the sirens wailed, the Israeli military said a shooting attack Tuesday in the West Bank wounded one Israeli. Just a day earlier, Israeli forces killed a Palestinian man in a West Bank raid and several people were wounded when a Palestinian rammed his car into pedestrians near a busy Jerusalem market. Israel has fought half a dozen wars with neighboring Arab countries, battled two Palestinian uprisings and endured scores of deadly militant attacks since its establishment in 1948. At sundown on Tuesday, Israel will shift from remembrance to celebration, kicking off its 75th Independence Day.

Iran Imposes Sanctions on EU, UK
London – Tehran – Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 25 April, 2023
Iran's Foreign Ministry announced on Monday sanctions on 17 individuals and 4 entities based in the UK and the European Union for supporting terrorist groups, portraying the move as a response to recent European sanctions imposed against Iranian officials linked to crackdowns on nationwide protests. “The tit-for-tat sanctions are imposed against some EU and UK individuals and legal entities for providing support for terrorism and terrorist groups, instigating and encouraging acts of terrorism and violence against the Iranian people, interference in Iran’s internal affairs and spreading violence and unrest across the country,” the Ministry said in a statement. It also accused them of spreading lies and misinformation about Iran and participating in the exacerbation of oppressive sanctions against the country which Tehran sees as an example of “economic terrorism”. Those targeted with sanctions include eight European lawmakers, mostly from France and Germany. The sanctions also targeted the German-Israeli Society, Deutsch-Israelische Gesellschaft, as well as Alan Mendoza, executive director of the Henry Jackson Foundation UK, Admiral Benjamin John Key, a commander at the British Navy, Oliver Westmacott, President of AEGIS and Michelle Russel, head of the Security Industry Authority (SIA) The exchange of sanctions came as talks to revive the 2015 Nuclear Deal between Iran and the six powers - the United States, Russia, France, China, Britain and Germany –are in “stalemate.”Meanwhile, a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee in the Iranian parliament, MP Seyed Ahmad Avaei told the Jamaran news site that the West feels Iran in a weak position and that Tehran will submit to its demands following the recent events in the country. The deputy was referring to the protests that rocked Iran following the death of Mahsa Amini on 16 September. He said the West wants to obtain the highest benefits from Iran during the talks to revive the 2015 Nuclear Deal. The deputy was answering a question on whether the agreement to restore relations with Saudi Arabia has an impact on the nuclear talks. Ahmad Avaei then said Iran can establish foreign relations, not only with Saudi Arabia, but also with the whole world, except Israel. The deputy blamed “reckless” Iranian officials for the deterioration of Iran's foreign relations, especially with Riyadh.

Explainer-What is Nagorno-Karabakh - and why are tensions rising?
Felix Light and Guy Faulconbridge/TBILISI/MOSCOW (Reuters)/Mon, April 24, 2023
Azerbaijan said on Sunday it had established a checkpoint at the start of the Lachin corridor, the only land route linking Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh, a step that was followed by claims of border shootings by both Azeri and Armenian forces.
WHAT IS NAGORNO-KARABAKH?
Nagorno-Karabakh, known as Artsakh by Armenians, is a landlocked mountainous area in the South Caucasus. It was claimed by both Azerbaijan and Armenia after the fall of the Russian Empire in 1917 and has remained a point of tension ever since. The territory is internationally recognised as part of oil-rich Azerbaijan, but its inhabitants are predominantly ethnic Armenians and have their own government which has enjoyed close links to the government in neighbouring Armenia but has not been officially recognised by it or other U.N. member states. Armenians, who are Christians, claim a long historical dominance in the area, dating back to several centuries before Christ. Azerbaijan, whose inhabitants are mostly Muslim, links its historical identity to the territory too. It accuses the Armenians of driving out Azeris who lived nearby in the 1990s. It wants to gain full control over the enclave, suggesting ethnic Armenians take Azeri passports or leave.
WHAT IS THE HISTORY?
Over the centuries, the enclave has come under the sway of Persians, Turks, Russians, Ottomans and Soviets.
After the Russian revolution of 1917, Armenia and Azerbaijan fought over the region. When the Bolsheviks took over Azerbaijan, Armenia agreed to Bolshevik control, ushering in the Sovietisation of the whole of the Caucasus.Karabakh, with its borders redrawn to include as many Armenians as possible, remained as part of the Azeri Soviet Republic but with autonomy. Its name was the "Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast".
FIRST KARABAKH WAR
As the Soviet Union crumbled, what is known as the First Karabakh War erupted (1988-1994) between Armenians and their Azeri neighbours. About 30,000 people were killed and more than a million people displaced.
Azerbaijan lost a chunk of its territory with Armenians left in control of most of Karabakh, alongside extra territory around Karabakh's perimeter. Azerbaijan vowed to take back control over the territory.
44-DAY WAR IN 2020
In 2020, after decades of skirmishes, Azerbaijan began a military operation which became the Second Karabakh War swiftly breaking through Armenian defences. Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, won a resounding victory in the 44-day war, taking back parts of Karabakh. The use of drones bought from Turkey and Israel was cited by military analysts as one of the main reasons for Azerbaijan's victory. Several thousand people were killed. Russia, a treaty ally of Armenia which also has good relations with Azerbaijan, stepped in to negotiate a ceasefire. Under the deal, Azerbaijan was handed all of the territories surrounding Karabakh. That left ethnic Armenians in Karabakh with a much smaller territory. Armenia cast the war's outcome as a disaster and unrest broke out in Yerevan. The deal provided for Russian peacekeepers to deploy to Karabakh to guard the only road left linking the enclave with Armenia - the so-called Lachin corridor - and construction of a new route along the corridor. Azerbaijan pledged to guarantee the safety of traffic along the corridor in both directions. Fighting continued to break out after the ceasefire, and in December 2022 Azeri civilians identifying themselves as environmental activists began a blockade of the Lachin corridor, closing Karabakh to all but Russian peacekeepers and Red Cross convoys. Azerbaijan denied it had fully blockaded the road, saying that some convoys and aid were allowed through.
WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW?
On Sunday, Azerbaijani troops set up a new checkpoint, near the Armenian border at the beginning of the Lachin corridor, in what Armenia has said is an explicit violation of the November 2020 truce. Azerbaijan said the move, which threatens to cut Karabakh off entirely, was aimed at ending Armenian arms supplies to what it calls a separatist administration. The United States said it was deeply concerned by the move and called for free and open movement along the corridor. The Kremlin said there was no alternative to the 2020 ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan and that it was working on talks between Baku and Yerevan. The crisis on the Lachin corridor has strained ties between Russia and Armenia. Armenia has repeatedly called for Moscow to enforce the November 2020 ceasefire and open the Lachin corridor, while Moscow has said Armenia is refusing peace talks with Azerbaijan.

Turkey, Russia, Iran, Syria hold 'constructive talks'
ANKARA (Reuters)/Tue, April 25, 2023
The defence ministers and intelligence chiefs of Iran, Russia, Syria and Turkey held talks on Tuesday that Ankara and Moscow described as constructive, as part of efforts to rebuild Turkey-Syria ties after years of animosity during the Syrian war. NATO alliance member Turkey has backed political and armed opposition to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad during the 12-year civil war, and sent its own troops into the country's north. Moscow is Assad's main ally and Russia has encouraged a reconciliation with Ankara. But Damascus demands the full withdrawal of Turkish troops for relations to be restored. At the talks in Moscow, the ministers and intelligence service chiefs discussed strengthening security in Syria and the normalisation of ties between Ankara and Damascus, the Turkish and Russian defence ministries said in separate statements. All four countries reaffirmed their desire to preserve Syria's territorial integrity and the need to intensify efforts for the speedy return of Syrian refugees to their country, the statements said. The Syrian defence ministry said the talks discussed the withdrawal of Turkish troops from Syria alongside opening the strategic M4 highway that paves the way for the revival of Syria's trade with neighbouring countries. The Syrian and Turkish defence ministers previously held talks in Moscow in December, marking the highest-level encounter between the two countries since the war began. Turkey's foreign minister last week said that a meeting of foreign ministers of the four countries that would build on the December talks may take place in early May, but he later said it was postponed because the parties could not agree on an exact date. Syrian officials have repeatedly said that any moves towards normalising ties between Damascus and Ankara can only come after Turkey agrees to pull out thousands of troops it has stationed in the rebel-held northwest. Turkey's extensive military presence has prevented previous Russian-led military campaigns from restoring the last major rebel-held enclave in Syria back under state control.

Attacker Fires at Israeli Runners on West Bank Road Wounding One
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 25 April, 2023
A gunman fired at joggers from a passing car at a junction near the occupied West Bank city of Ramallah on Tuesday, medics said, and the Israeli military blocked roads and launched a search in response. Israel's ambulance service said it treated a 28-year-old with a hand injury before transferring him to hospital. He was running with a group in memory of fallen soldiers, as Israelis commemorate their military dead on Tuesday. The shooting occurred along Route 60, the main north-south highway in the occupied West Bank that passes along some large Israeli settlements. It was the latest in year-long series of incidents in an upsurge in Israeli-Palestinian violence, with frequent military raids and violence by Israeli settlers amid a spate of Palestinian attacks. On Monday, a Palestinian drove his car into a crowd on a Jerusalem street in what police said was a deliberate attack, wounding five people, including a 70-year-old man in serious condition. Earlier, Israeli soldiers killed a Palestinian during a raid in the occupied West Bank. More than 90 Palestinians and at least 19 Israelis and foreigners have been killed since January. Israel captured the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem, territories Palestinians want for an independent state, in a 1967 Middle East war.

EU voices optimism on Ukraine grain transit deal
BRUSSELS (Reuters)/Tue, April 25, 2023
The European Union's agriculture chief expressed optimism on Tuesday that countries neighbouring Ukraine will shortly accept a deal to allow Ukrainian grain to enter their countries for export elsewhere. The European Commission last week proposed emergency measures for wheat, maize, rapeseed, sunflower seeds and sunflower oil after some central European countries took unilateral steps to ban imports of food products from Ukraine. Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia became transit routes for Ukrainian grain that could not be exported through the country's Black Sea ports because of Russia's invasion in February 2022. European Agriculture Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski said the transit deal would only cover the five products representing 80-90% of imports and not another eight, including honey, poultry or milk, that Ukraine's neighbours have also proposed. "I think that we are very, very close to having good agreement," he told a news conference after a meeting of agriculture ministers in Luxembourg, adding other EU countries also appeared to support the plan. The Commission is negotiating with the five countries. Wojciechowski said the EU executive was presenting data to show the precise impact of agricultural imports. Wojciechowski, who is Polish, said his own discussions with Poland's agriculture minister on Tuesday showed their positions were very close. "Poland is the lead country of these five and it's very close indeed to coming up with a solution," he said. Under the proposal, the five countries would need to ensure Ukrainian grain can transit their countries and their farmers would be in line for 100 million euros ($109.7 million) of EU funds as compensation.

Drought Hits 60% of Tunisia’s Grains
Tunis - Mongi Saidani/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 25 April, 2023
Agricultural experts in Tunisia have predicted that the country’s upcoming crop yield is anticipated to be a maximum of 2.5 million quintals of grain, a significant drop from the 7.4 million quintals harvested during the previous agricultural season. This outcome is one of the poorest in the last decade, as the production rate has typically ranged between 12 to 16 million quintals of grain per season. Sources have confirmed that the damage will be significant, with 60% of agricultural land allocated for various types of grain cultivation being affected to varying degrees. Tunisian farmers are in urgent need of government support to combat the years-long wave of drought currently affecting the country. Mohamed Rajayebia, a member of the executive bureau of the Tunisian Union of Agriculture and Fisheries, confirmed that the decline in grain production comes against the backdrop of continuing temperature rises witnessed by Tunisia during the last days of March. According to Rajayebia, the main grain-producing regions in Tunisia, including the provinces of Béja, Jendouba, Bizerte, and the Sahel region of Kairouan, have been negatively affected by the lack of rainfall and the recent rise in temperature. This may increase the possibility of higher imports to meet local demand, even though there are difficulties in obtaining grains and their derivatives from the Ukrainian market due to the ongoing war. Observers of Tunisia's current farming season results have warned that the grain harvest this season will barely be enough to provide seeds for the 2023-2024 farming season. They estimate that Tunisia needs two million quintals of seeds for the next season, as around 95% of the country’s major crops depend on rainfall. Government and private organizations are working on finding solutions to this problem, which threatens food security and is causing a continuing decrease in grain production from one season to another. According to agricultural expert Hamadi Bou Bakri, the Tunisian state imports between 65% and 70% of its local grain needs every year, relying on seasonal national production between 30% and 50%. “This season it will be very difficult to reach these percentages, considering that we may only be able to collect 2.5 million quintals of grains,” said Bakri. Tunisia’s annual grain needs are estimated to be at least 32 million quintals, with about half typically met by domestic production. However, this season’s need for imports is expected to be “unprecedented,” resulting in additional expenses in hard currency for the state treasury.

BRICS expansion: A game changer for global economy and USD
LBCI/Tuesday, 25 April, 2023
In 2023, we may witness a significant shift towards the end of the unilateralism that has dominated for decades, with the possibility of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) expanding its membership. The BRICS was founded in 2006 and aimed to increase economic relations among its members using local currencies, thereby reducing dependence on the US dollar and its global dominance. The group comprises approximately 42% of the world's population. According to Bloomberg, 19 countries are interested in joining the BRICS, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Egypt, Bahrain, Argentina, and Indonesia. These countries' applications will be considered at the next BRICS summit in June. Observers believed that this move reflects the desire of these countries to become more independent from the unipolar world system and to engage in an economic confrontation with the US and the West. The most striking factor in the BRICS expansion is its surpassing, for the first time, the Group of Seven (G7) countries, the most advanced economies in the world, with the BRICS contribution to the global economy reaching 31.5% compared to 30.7% for the G7, according to Bloomberg.
Moreover, the latest forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggest that China, the world's second-largest economy, will be the largest contributor to global economic growth until 2028, with a share of approximately 23% of total growth compared to 11% for the United States, the world's largest economy. China's economic dominance is being reinforced by the success of its currency, which is replacing the dollar as the most traded currency in countries such as Russia. This trend is also being followed by other countries, such as Brazil, whose president recently called for an end to the dollar's dominance globally. However, the ambitions of the BRICS countries and those seeking to become part of it do not negate the following facts:
- The US dollar is still the most widely traded currency.
- 70% of the world's population uses the greenback in daily transactions, and it dominates foreign reserves held by central banks worldwide by more than 58%.
So will this situation change soon?

Macron’s European army is an insult to Nato and the Americans who pay for it
Tim Collins/The Telegraph/Tue, April 25, 2023
As citizens of other nations attempt to escape the crisis-hit Sudanese capital Khartoum, one thing stands out: it’s an ‘every man for himself’ scramble. Armed forces from around the world and across the region are hastily attempting to get their nationals out, but one government – or aspiring government, perhaps – is notable by its absence. That’s the European Union. That’s odd, because the EU – as distinct from Nato – has theoretically had a variety of different rapid-response forces for decades, way back to the European Rapid Operational Force announced in 1995 (and disbanded in 2012). The latest foolish plan along these lines is French President Macron’s call last month for a European army able to act independently of the US and Nato, including a 5,000-strong “rapid response force”.
In fairness to Macron, he was the one who called the warring Sudanese generals and brokered a ceasefire of sorts, which has helped a lot with the initial rescue efforts. He was pushing on an open door as it was in the interests of both sides for foreigners to leave unscathed, but it was nonetheless a minor diplomatic win for Macron.
Macron, of course, needs every win he can get given the fact that France is basically in a state of insurrection at the moment. The other lever that French presidents traditionally reach for in times of domestic crisis is bashing the US or Nato. Macron’s recent calls for an EU rapid response force could be dismissed as a swipe at Nato, except that he is apparently serious about trying to develop some kind of EU-only military capability. It’s not the most foolish insult to Nato and the USA that a French president has ever offered – that would probably be the “get out and stay out” call by Charles De Gaulle in 1966 – but it is intensely rude and unhelpful in these tense times. Macron’s apologists would doubtless point to the Aukus pact and argue that the UK and US are drifting away from the defence of Europe; but Aukus is exactly the opposite of that. It is a focus on the real emerging threat: China.
We must remember that Nato was formed in 1947, the same year that the US Joint Chiefs of Staff stood up to address the new threats of a Cold War world. Today there is talk of creating a civilian equivalent of the Joint Chiefs to manage US civilian departments effectively and efficiently against the burgeoning Chinese menace. France could learn from this sort of thinking. Anything that undermines the cohesiveness of the West and Nato is music to Chinese ruler Xi Jinping’s ears. Xi knows that his main adversary, the US, must build and strengthen a network of alliances as the red dragon begins to spread its wings. While the current focus is on Taiwan, analysts with broader vision watch the humble deference Putin is showing to Xi out of necessity. It’s not too soon to wonder about the future of the Russian Far East – parts of which have a Chinese ethnic majority – in the event of a collapsed or badly weakened regime in Moscow. Given Xi’s clear intent to unify China and the Chinese, including Taiwan and elsewhere, it’s to be hoped that the right people in the Pentagon and elsewhere are already thinking about this.
Such a shift in focus by China could happen sooner than one might think. If we suppose that the current war in Ukraine were to end with the collapse of Putin’s regime, it might not be only Ukraine that wound up joining Nato. A badly weakened Russia, potentially newly free and democratic in that scenario, might ask to join Nato as well. The Motherland would certainly need some new friends in that case. Such an upheaval would bring Nato eyeball to eyeball with the People’s Republic across the soon to be disputed Siberian tundra.
However things play out in the Ukraine and with China, a strong Nato is absolutely vital to the security of the West – and, bluntly, to the security of France. Nato members must and should shoulder their share of the burden by paying 2 per cent of GDP towards defence: just seven of the 30 member nations currently do so. France does not, for instance. It is shameful that the USA accounts for fully 70 per cent of the alliance’s defence expenditure, and even more shameful that Macron is calling for European members to commit their forces – already too small – to a mickey-mouse EU force structure that nobody will take seriously. Anything that undermines Nato is playing with fire. Even if enough troops can be robbed from existing Nato commitments or double-hatted, an EU force would be crippled at birth by the very nature of the EU. Agreement on its mission, its command and on actually deploying it would be Byzantine and unlikely to happen. The EU army would also be hamstrung by the military limitations of its members. The recent French deployment to Mali highlighted one of the major shortcomings of any such force: airlift. In the case of Mali, Britain provided the necessary US-made C-17 and Chinook heavy transports and choppers. Britain’s C-17s are the only heavy long-range military transport planes in Western Europe: Britain’s Chinooks are the only viable heavy helicopters.
Part of the calculation that Putin made when he invaded Ukraine was the ineffectiveness and lack of cohesion of Nato. The concerted response of the US, the UK and many European nations in arming and supporting Ukraine came as an unpleasant shock to him. That response has not gone unnoticed in Beijing either. Any invasion of Taiwan would involve a 180 km opposed crossing of the Taiwan Strait: a feat impossible without naval, air and missile-bombardment supremacy as well as the complete physical and military isolation of Taiwan. The very existence of a strong and unified Nato makes those conditions near impossible. President Macron must understand, despite his domestic political problems, that continued aspiration to an unviable EU force independent of Nato and the USA fundamentally undermines the defence of the West. That includes the defence of France. Colonel Tim Collins is a former British Army officer who served with the SAS and as commander of the Royal Irish during the invasion of Iraq in 2003, when his before-battle speech to his soldiers made headlines around the world

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on April 25-26/2023
Re-integrating Syria into the region will require complex feats of diplomacy
Raghida Dergham/The National/April 25/2023
Many have wondered how, in the aftermath of the recent Chinese-brokered detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran, to think about efforts by Arab states to reintegrate Syria into the region. How might Syrian President Bashar Al Assad’s relations with Iran and Hezbollah affect any rehabilitation? Are we seeing today the components of a roadmap being drawn that would mean a substantive — not just ceremonial — Syrian return to the fold?
Saudi Arabia will host the next Arab League Summit, taking place next month, and is thought to be drafting a pragmatic agenda that complements the new vision and approach of the Saudi leadership. It is an approach that does not rely on improvisation — far from it. Riyadh’s messaging is coherent, even if brief.
Mr Al Assad gradually needs to escape the Iranian grip, because he will not be able to be fully in control of any Syria that lies in the shadow of Iran’s continued dominance. Therefore, he may find that a relinkage with the Arab states — gradually, and as part of a regional deal — will be his salvation from total reliance on Iran and Russia.
Arab states’ offer to Mr Al Assad is thought to include a pledge to help rebuild Syria, to ease its isolation and to create a bridge between it and the outside world. It also includes collective efforts to gradually contain Turkey’s influence, as well as Iran’s. In the view of many countries in the region, greater Arab influence in Syria could be reassuring to Syrians, and it would be in Mr Al Assad’s interest to be part of that effort to reassure instead of antagonising his people. But such an outcome would likely only be achieved in return for binding commitments from Mr Al Assad. These are the elements of a serious deal, not a mere reunion.
Iranian dominance in Syria is a strategic goal for Tehran, and the IRGC commanders will not favour being part of any reduction of their country’s footprint there
In terms of his relations with Hezbollah — which fought alongside Damascus against the Syrian opposition and has become his partner along with Iran — Mr Al Assad would likely be required to gradually disengage.
It is possible, particularly in the aftermath of the Iran-Saudi detente, that Iran would allow some political change in Syria, and that Russia would not mind it. Indeed, Moscow today sees Syria as a burden, and it needs to focus its energy on the war in Ukraine.
But why would Iran agree to such a radical shift? For one thing, it needs to overcome its economic dire straits, as well as its nuclear crisis, which makes it vulnerable to military confrontations, and its political isolation. Therefore, Iran may agree to concessions in the framework of a deal to normalise relations with other Arab states and secure the economic relief this entails, as well as the possibility of US sanctions relief if it abides by its commitments and radically softens its behaviour.
US President Joe Biden’s administration is somewhat troubled by the developments in the Middle East that have put China in the driver’s seat, but, at the same time, Washington is not completely opposed. Indeed, it has said it welcomes developments that could help avert conflict with Iran.
Moreover, the Biden administration is understood to be in favour of Arab states replacing the Astana process led by Russia, Turkey and Iran, by sponsoring a political process in Syria and working to persuade Mr Al Assad to make concessions to the opposition.
It would also be a welcome development for the Biden administration if the efforts of Arab countries that have normalised relations with Israel succeed in creating a climate that could gradually bring Syria into a comprehensive process of de-escalation in its outstanding conflicts with Israel. Today, the broad strategy of Gulf states, in particular, is to reduce, avoid and resolve conflicts throughout the Middle East, through a gradual approach and a qualitatively different kind of diplomatic engagement.
The aspirations of Saudi diplomacy were explained by Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman during the Future Investment Initiative meeting in Riyadh in 2019, when he spoke about the dream he intended to turn into reality by transforming the Middle East into another Europe, becoming far removed from ideological conflicts and extremist policies. Then in the Jeddah Security and Development Summit last year, attended by leaders from the GCC, the US, Egypt, Iraq and Jordan, the Crown Prince affirmed a vision that prioritises security, stability and prosperity, calling on Iran to work with the countries of the region and become part of that vision. Saudi Arabia’s hosting of the Arab League Summit in May will be another important milestone in the context of the pragmatic implementation of this vision, especially in the wake of the agreement with Iran. And Syria could be a testing ground.
If, as many expect, Mr Al Assad is truly ready to replace his reliance on Russia, Iran and Hezbollah with domestic reforms, dialogue with the opposition and accepting the return of Syrian refugees, then regional diplomacy will have delivered a coup. The key, however, is honest and true implementation.
This will not be easy for Mr Al Assad, even if he is persuaded, to get permission from Tehran, which has been a strategic partner for Damascus for decades, to become more independent. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may not be ready to end its pact with the regime in Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon. This is where the problem lies: Iranian dominance in Syria is a strategic goal for Tehran, and the IRGC commanders will not favour being part of any reduction of their country’s footprint there.
Whatever happens, it is likely to happen only gradually, say those familiar with the process. Just as well — let caution be the compass to trust, and let trust be the destination.
*Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute and a columnist for The National

Palestinians: The Real Human Rights Violations
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/April 25, 2023
When Palestinians commit human rights violations against Palestinians, the European Union and the UN are beyond indifferent. It is only when Israel takes a decision to defend itself against terrorism that we hear their supposedly righteous cries.
The Europeans and the UN seem to be more concerned about the rights of organizations that are affiliated with terrorism than the rights of organizations that speak out against human rights violations perpetrated by Palestinians.
The PFLP, in fact, has long been a headache for Mahmoud Abbas and his Palestinian Authority (PA). That is why the closure of PFLP-affiliated organizations in the West Bank actually serves the interests of the PA: it weakens its political rivals.
Recently, even Abbas himself decided to punish the PFLP, which is part of his own Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). He cut off all funds to the organization.
While he has been accusing Israel of targeting Palestinian NGOs, he has ordered his security forces to crack down on Lawyers for Justice, an independent Palestinian group of lawyers based in Ramallah, the de facto capital of the Palestinians.
Lawyers for Justice works to support Palestinian human rights activists and political prisoners detained by the Palestinian Authority. It also monitors and documents human rights violations committed by the PA security forces.
In one of its recent reports, Lawyers for Justice revealed that the number of Palestinian political activists arrested by the PA has significantly increased, while peaceful demonstrations and assemblies were being suppressed.
It is no wonder, then, that Abbas and the Palestinian Authority are trying to get rid of Lawyers for Justice.
Palestinian leaders do not tolerate any form of criticism. They do not want to hear complaints about human rights violations committed by the Palestinian security forces. They do not want any human rights organizations that challenge them in public and demand an end to the suppression of freedoms.
The only human rights organizations Palestinian leaders want to see are those that direct their hate against Israel, or those that are affiliated with terror groups such as the PFLP, or those that focus their time and energy on defending the rights of terrorists who carry out attacks against Jews.
According to Lawyers for Justice, there is no Palestinian Authority law that prohibits lawyers in their individual capacity or within a framework of a civil company from providing free legal services. The new measure against the group is unlawful...
"This will impede its [Lawyers for Justice] work by blocking its ability to enter into contractual agreements with local or international organizations, or have a bank account. The efforts of the Palestinian Authority to hinder the human rights work of Lawyers for Justice has been ongoing for multiple years. The group has been subjected to different forms of targeted harassment [by the Palestinian Authority], including judicial harassment and defamation campaigns." — Front Line Defenders, an Irish-based human rights organization. Global Analysis, 2022.
Without valid registration, Lawyers for Justice will not be able to access its bank accounts and could have its offices shuttered and staff arrested. — Muhannad Karajah, head of Lawyers for Justice, hrw.org. April 13, 2023.
By staying silent about the human rights violations committed by the Palestinian Authority, the UN and many Western countries are doing a terrible injustice to the Palestinians, who will continue to suffer repression and suppression under the PA while the international community, obsessed only with defaming Israel, looks the other way.
The Europeans and the UN seem to be more concerned about the rights of organizations that are affiliated with terrorism than the rights of organizations that speak out against human rights violations perpetrated by Palestinians.
Pictured: Plain-clothed Palestinian Authority (PA) security officers beat a man in Ramallah on June 26, 2021, during a demonstration to protest the death of human rights and political activist Nizar Banat while in the custody of PA security forces. (Photo by Ahmad Gharabli/AFP via Getty Images)
Last year, Palestinians and their supporters around the world were up in arms after Israeli security authorities closed down seven Palestinian NGOs that had ties to the terror group, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP). Nine European countries published a joint statement in which they rejected the Israeli move and announced that they would continue to cooperate with the Palestinian organizations.
Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas also weighed in on the Israeli decision, dubbing it "unacceptable and rejected." Abbas said that the Palestinian leadership was reaching out to the relevant parties "to stop these Israeli provocations against our institutions that operate in accordance with international law and human rights."
The condemnations of the Israeli decision by the European countries, the United Nations and the Palestinians came despite reports by the independent NGO Monitor organization documenting the connection between the Palestinian organizations and the PFLP, designated by the US and other countries as a Foreign Terrorist Organization.
The voices of those who denounced Israel for taking action against organizations linked to a Palestinian terror group, however, are silent when the Palestinians crack down on their own human rights institutions. When Palestinians commit human rights violations against Palestinians, the European Union and the UN are beyond indifferent. It is only when Israel takes a decision to defend itself against terrorism that we hear their supposedly righteous cries. The Europeans and the UN seem to be more concerned about the rights of organizations that are affiliated with terrorism than the rights of organizations that speak out against human rights violations perpetrated by Palestinians.
As for Mahmoud Abbas, the 87-year-old Palestinian Authority President who condemned Israel for closing the PFLP-affiliated organizations, he has again exposed himself as an inveterate hypocrite.
For a start, the PFLP does not recognize that Israel even has a right to exist. Imagine if a group said that Germany, Ukraine, Moldova or Taiwan did not have a right to exist.
In addition, the PFLP has carried out countless terror attacks against Israel and Jews, and regularly criticizes Abbas and the PA for conducting security coordination with Israel.
Between 1968 and 1972, the PFLP also carried out a number of hijackings against international airlines; and in 2002 and 2003, claimed four suicide bombings in Israel and the West Bank.
Recently, even Abbas himself decided to punish the PFLP, which is part of his own Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). He cut off all funds to the organization.
In the past, the same Palestinian Authority also imprisoned the secretary general of the PFLP, Ahmed Saadat, who was responsible for the 2001 assassination of Israeli Minister of Tourism Rehavam Ze'evi in Jerusalem.
The PFLP, in fact, has long been a headache for Abbas and his PA. That is why the closure of PFLP-affiliated organizations in the West Bank actually serves the interests of the PA: it weakens its political rivals.
Why is Abbas a hypocrite? While he has been accusing Israel of targeting Palestinian NGOs, he has ordered his security forces to crack down on Lawyers for Justice, an independent Palestinian group of lawyers based in Ramallah, the de facto capital of the Palestinians.
On March 26, the PA Ministry of National Economy informed Lawyers for Justice of the Ministry's decision to not renew the registration of the organization as a civil company. According to the Ministry, the decision is based on a request from the Palestinian General Intelligence Service to freeze the registration of the organization on the pretext that it has engaged in "nonprofit activities" and accepted foreign funding in violation of the Palestinian Authority law.
Lawyers for Justice works to support Palestinian human rights activists and political prisoners detained by the Palestinian Authority. It also monitors and documents human rights violations committed by the PA security forces.
The organization has published a number of reports criticizing the PA for its imprisonment and torture of Palestinian political activists in the West Bank. In addition, it has been closely following the case of leading human rights and political activist Nizar Banat, beaten to death in 2021 by Palestinian security officers who came to arrest him in Hebron.
In one of its recent reports, Lawyers for Justice revealed that the number of Palestinian political activists arrested by the PA has significantly increased, while peaceful demonstrations and assemblies were being suppressed:
"The group notes that the policy of suppressing freedoms clearly extends to public rights and freedoms, including freedom of opinion and expression and freedom of political affiliation, which are constitutional rights that must be respected and preserved."
It is no wonder, then, that Abbas and the Palestinian Authority are trying to get rid of Lawyers for Justice.
Palestinian leaders do not tolerate any form of criticism. They do not want to hear complaints about human rights violations committed by the Palestinian security forces. They do not want any human rights organizations that challenge them in public and demand an end to the suppression of freedoms.
The only human rights organizations Palestinian leaders want to see are those that direct their hate against Israel, or those that are affiliated with terror groups such as the PFLP, or those that focus their time and energy on defending the rights of terrorists who carry out attacks against Jews.
According to Lawyers for Justice, there is no Palestinian Authority law that prohibits lawyers in their individual capacity or within a framework of a civil company from providing free legal services. The new measure against the group is unlawful: it was taken by a Palestinian security agency, not the PA Ministry of National Economy, which is responsible for granting licenses to such groups, Lawyers for Justice clarified in a statement, adding:
"We consider the decision of the Ministry of National Economy, which came at the request of the General Intelligence Service, as an integral part of the state of repression and persecution of the human rights activists, especially during the past three years, which witnessed a sharp rise in the pace of suppression of public freedoms and constitutional rights guaranteed under the Palestinian Basic Law and international human rights conventions."
According to Front Line Defenders, an Irish-based human rights organization whose overall goal is to enable human rights defenders to continue their work without the risk of harassment, intimidation or arrest:
"Lawyers for Justice is facing severe consequences that will affect its existence as a human rights organization due to the punitive measures and restrictions imposed on its registration. This will impede its work by blocking its ability to enter into contractual agreements with local or international organizations, or have a bank account.
"The efforts of the Palestinian Authority to hinder the human rights work of Lawyers for Justice has been ongoing for multiple years. The group has been subjected to different forms of targeted harassment [by the Palestinian Authority], including judicial harassment and defamation campaigns..."
Muhannad Karajah, head of Lawyers for Justice, was quoted as saying that the move to muzzle his group reflects a larger trend of the Palestinian Authority "shrinking the space for civil society organizations and further empowering its security services." Without valid registration, Karajah said, Lawyers for Justice will not be able to access its bank accounts and could have its offices shuttered and staff arrested.
The issue of Lawyers for Justice has thus far failed to attract the attention of the international community or the mainstream media in the West. This silence serves the Palestinian Authority's goal of muzzling its critics while continuing its campaign to vilify Israel and to demonize and murder Jews.
By staying silent about the human rights violations committed by the Palestinian Authority, the UN and many Western countries are doing a terrible injustice to the Palestinians, who will continue to suffer repression and suppression under the PA while the international community, obsessed only with defaming Israel, looks the other way.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
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DeSantis Faces Republican Scrutiny on Issues While Trump Skates
Maggie Haberman/The New York Times/April, 25/2023
When former President Donald J. Trump called Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, “smart” in the days after Mr. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the remark caused a brief media stir and nothing more — another off-the-cuff, provocative statement from someone who is famous for such comments.
But when Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida painted the fight in far less extreme terms, as a “territorial dispute,” the reaction from Republicans in Washington and a range of donors was alarm and anger.
When the landmark Roe v. Wade abortion ruling was undone by the US Supreme Court, Mr. Trump — who appointed three of the justices responsible for overturning it after promising to do so during his 2016 campaign — acted like a bystander, telling allies it could be bad for Republicans electorally and blaming anti-abortion forces for losses in the 2022 midterm campaigns.
Since then, he has refused to say where he stands on federal action curtailing abortion, an issue on which he has changed his position over the years. Yet Mr. DeSantis faced extensive backlash from voters whose support he might need in a general election when he moved to the right of Mr. Trump and signed a law banning abortions in Florida after six weeks of pregnancy.
Mr. Trump, a rich businessman and celebrity who served four years as president and is now running his third campaign, is something of a known unknown commodity. For the last eight years, a defining characteristic of Mr. Trump as a political figure has been that he is graded on something of a curve, his more outrageous comments striking some voters as musings rather than as deeper views on policy.
“He has never adhered to the unwritten rules of electoral politics, and he has cemented his MAGA brand by openly flouting them,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist. “In 2016, Trump was exempt from the punitive standards we hold conventional politicians to, and what’s remarkable is that seven years and a presidential term later, that still holds true.”
Voters, Mr. Donovan said, see Mr. Trump “differently, and make exceptions, consciously or otherwise, for his statements and his behavior.”
That defined Mr. Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign, when a series of candidates flamed out in the Republican primaries as they were judged by traditional standards against a rival who actively sought to burn down those standards.
And if Mr. Trump wins the nomination again, the degree to which he is viewed through a fundamentally different lens from those applied to other politicians will be a significant reason. Support for the primary campaign by Mr. Trump — who last month earned the dubious distinction of being the first former US president to be indicted on criminal charges — has only increased.
By contrast, Mr. DeSantis, a former congressman and current governor, is being held to the standards of a typical politician, just as all of those who unsuccessfully tried to stop Mr. Trump in the 2016 primary were. And against those conventional standards, in his first foray onto the national stage, Mr. DeSantis has been struggling.
He has made a series of unforced errors that have been the focus of news coverage and have caused public and private alarm among Republican donors who saw him as the antidote to Mr. Trump.
Meanwhile, Mr. Trump has gone from decades of being active in New York politics to running as an outsider in 2016, followed by an ascent to party leader as president, and is now racking up endorsements from political elites as the front-runner for the Republican nomination.
Mr. Trump has for decades engaged in the kind of glad-handing that benefits candidates — which Mr. DeSantis is said to eschew — such as working phones, sending notes and attending events. He also has the ability to invite people on a private plane or to an opulent members-only club.
Mr. Trump also has the advantage of celebrity, and over the course of his presidency, his base became conditioned to dismiss his contradictory policy impulses and statements as just the way Mr. Trump talks.
By contrast, Mr. DeSantis’s words and actions harden as soon as they happen, which Mr. Trump plays to his advantage.
Recently, Mr. Trump mocked Mr. DeSantis for describing Mr. Putin as “basically a gas station with a bunch of nuclear weapons” in a March interview with the broadcaster Piers Morgan. Mr. Trump put out a campaign video in which he defended Mr. Putin and attacked Mr. DeSantis for offering “exactly the kind of simple-minded thinking that has produced decades of failed diplomacy and ultimately war.”
Yet in his own interview with Mr. Morgan last year, Mr. Trump agreed when the interviewer described Mr. Putin as an “evil genocidal monster” amid the devastating scenes in Ukraine.
“I do” agree with that assessment, Mr. Trump said in response to Mr. Morgan’s prodding. “And who wouldn’t?”
Yet in segments with conservative media outlets, Mr. DeSantis often faces criticism that Mr. Trump does not.
Shortly after Mr. DeSantis’s interview with Mr. Morgan on Russia, the influential Fox News host Tucker Carlson took issue with his calling Mr. Putin a “war criminal,” without mentioning that Mr. Trump had described him in even harsher terms. Jason Miller, a top adviser to Mr. Trump, said that the former president has an ability “to bypass the filter of political media and build a personal relationship directly with voters.” He described it as a “sense of familiarity” forged through Mr. Trump’s time in business and entertainment and noted that Mr. Trump had brought millions of nontraditional voters to the table.
For the most part, Mr. Trump’s 2024 rivals have avoided taking him on directly by name, or challenging his presidency. The exception is Chris Christie, the former Republican governor of New Jersey, who is traveling in advance of a possible campaign of his own and who laid out a series of policy failures he said Mr. Trump had committed as president.
“All of those failings are policy failings, but they’re bigger than that,” Mr. Christie said at a town hall in New Hampshire on Thursday night. “They’re broken promises.”Whether such a line of attack will stick remains to be seen. But it is at odds with how Mr. DeSantis has approached the race so far, some Republican strategists say.
“DeSantis’s flawed strategy so far has been to try to beat Trump by out-Trumping Trump without understanding that he’s going to be graded on a conventional curve,” Rob Stutzman, a California-based operative, said, suggesting that Mr. DeSantis, who is expected to formally enter the race in the coming weeks, needed a course correction. “Only Trump rides the Trump curve.”

Will Biden Face a Democratic Challenger?
Ross Douthat/The New York Times/April, 25/2023
Joe Biden’s path to renomination by the Democratic Party, a journey reportedly likely to begin officially sometime next week, will represent a triumph of one seeming implausibility over another.
From the beginning of Biden’s presidency, every serious conversation about his re-election has started with the near-impossibility of imagining a man palpably too old for the office putting himself through the rigors of another presidential campaign, selling himself as a steady hand when his unsteadiness is so widely recognized even by his own coalition’s voters.
Yet that impossibility then collides with the impossibility of figuring out how Biden might be eased aside (barring a medical emergency, he clearly can’t be) or discerning how any ambitious Democrat could be induced to challenge him.
The dynamics that made Biden the nominee in the first place, his moderate branding and just-left-enough positioning, still protect him from a consolidated opposition on either flank. The younger rivals who challenged him in 2020, Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris, have been co-opted into his administration (where their brands aren’t exactly flourishing). Meanwhile the rising generation of Democratic governors — Gavin Newsom, Jared Polis, Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro — have positioned themselves (Newsom especially) for the post-Biden landscape, ready to step in only if he steps out.
Biden has also avoided the kind of gambits and defeats that might leave a large constituency ready to revolt. (Build Back Better diminished into the Inflation Reduction Act, but it eventually passed; our involvement in Ukraine has satisfied liberal hawks while stopping short of the direct conflict with Russia that might make the antiwar left bestir itself.) And he’s benefited from the way that polarization and anti-Trumpism has delivered a more unified liberalism, suffused by a trust-the-establishment spirit that makes the idea of a primary challenge seem not just dangerous but disreputable.
None of this eliminates the difficulty of imagining his campaign for four more years. But it’s outstripped by the difficulty of seeing how any serious and respectable force inside the Democratic Party could be organized to stop it.
However, as the Trump era has taught us, the serious and the respectable aren’t the only forces in American politics; disreputability has potency as well. Right now there’s no clear opening for a major rival like Newsom to replace Biden as the Democratic nominee. But with the president’s numbers consistently lousy, with a clear plurality of Democrats preferring that the president doesn’t run again and with Biden scuffling in New Hampshire polling (he trailed Buttigieg in a January survey and led a more recent poll, but with only 34 percent), there is room for people with less to lose to try to run the same play as Eugene McCarthy in 1968 or Pat Buchanan in 1992 or, for that matter, Bernie Sanders in 2016 — to offer themselves as protest candidates, to either channel hidden grievances or discover, through their campaigns, what those grievances might be.
Right now the only major figure auditioning for that role is Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the noted anti-vaccine activist who opened his own campaign in Boston this week. He’s an interesting test case, because while he’s way outside the current liberal mainstream, his name trades on a distinctive kind of older-Democrat nostalgia while his anti-corporate crankishness speaks to a tendency that used to be powerful on the left, before Trumpism absorbed a lot of paranoid energy and conspiracism.
This makes it possible to imagine him discovering a real constituency of Democrats who aren’t fully happy being part of the coalition that valorizes official expertise, who blend holistic views on medicine with doubts about the mainstream narrative on — well, the Kennedy assassinations for a start (though he will have to compete for some of these voters with Marianne Williamson, whose hat is also in the ring again).
At the same time his reputation as a conspiracist makes R.F.K. Jr. a poor vehicle for Democrats who might want to cast an anti-Biden vote without making an anti-vaccine statement. So it should be relatively easy for the party to establish a cordon sanitaire around his candidacy, such that 10 percent of the vote is possible but 30 percent is unimaginable.
It’s that 30 percent threshold, broken by McCarthy and Buchanan in the New Hampshire primary, that would create actual problems for Biden were it breached. I suspect there’s enough discontent based on age and fitness issues alone for such a breach to happen. But is there anyone closer to the mainstream than R.F.K. Jr. who wants to create those problems, raising his or her profile at the risk of catching blame for a Trump or Ron DeSantis presidency?
Ideally a column like this would end by identifying just that person, in a prophetic flourish. But since I don’t have a candidate ready at hand, maybe Biden can breathe easy — with all the impediments of age overcome, once again, by the absence of any credible alternative.

The Fighting in Sudan Threatens Peace Efforts with Israel
Ehud Yaari/The Washington Institute/April 25/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/117654/117654/
Even if another civil war is averted, the delay in signing a peace agreement has provided room for the rise of political factions that oppose further relations with Israel.
When fighting broke out between rival generals in Sudan earlier this month, one of its many ripple effects was the potential upending of understandings reached with Israel. Previously, the two countries had been on a path to sign a comprehensive peace agreement sometime later this year in Washington, to be followed by the exchange of ambassadors and the conclusion of protocols for cooperation in various fields—from developing Sudan’s vast agricultural potential to upgrading its health services and initiating trade relations. This process represented the culmination of declarations and agreements reached in 2020-21 regarding normalization between the two countries and Sudan’s participation in the Abraham Accords. The United States played a major role in those efforts by rescinding Sudan’s designation as a state sponsor of terrorism, lifting the associated sanctions, and extending financial aid.
According to Israeli officials, the final text of the peace agreement was drafted months ago with input from Washington and informally approved during Foreign Minister Eli Cohen’s February visit to Khartoum, though Sudanese authorities have refrained from confirming that negotiations reached this stage. At any rate, a formal signing was predicated on several preliminary steps: completing U.S. and international mediation between the military and the loose coalition of factions called the “Forces of Freedom and Change” (FFC), forming an interim civilian government in Khartoum, and holding general elections, after which the armed forces were expected to retreat from the political scene and a new parliament would ratify the agreement with Israel. The United States has long seen democratization in Sudan as a key objective, in part to help ease Khartoum’s tensions with neighboring countries and protect the vital Red Sea corridor.
On December 5, a “Framework Agreement” was reached to resolve the protracted tensions between the regular army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a powerful paramilitary that emerged from years of bloody conflict in Darfur and previously partnered with the army in ousting dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019 amid major public demonstrations. This framework envisions a two-year transition to civilian rule and the RSF’s merger into the army. Yet the commander of the RSF, Gen. Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, has insisted that this merger be extended to ten years, further incensing Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the army chief who heads the transitional Sovereignty Council.
These tensions have led to the outbreak of hostilities in the capital and various towns and bases in the provinces. The army is backed by reconstituted Islamist factions that formed the core of Bashir’s regime, while Hemedti is rumored to enjoy tacit support from National Umma Party leader Mariam al-Mahdi, who is suspected of trying to break the army-RSF partnership in the hope of accelerating the transfer of power to a civilian coalition led by herself. Indeed, Hemedti challenged Burhan shortly before the fighting erupted by calling for an immediate transfer to civilian rule. Many of Hemedti’s troops are also followers of the Mahdiyya movement, which harkens back to the Islamic state that Mahdi’s ancestor established in Sudan in the late nineteenth century.
Notably, the Islamists have taken a clear stand against peace with Israel, as have many FFC member parties (e.g., the communists and Baathists). Likewise, Mahdi voiced her objections to normalization while serving as foreign minister in Abdalla Hamdok’s short-lived civilian government, which was sacked by the military last October.
Israel’s Cautious Role in Sudan
Israel’s past and present approaches to Sudan have been complicated by a host of factors. During the current normalization era, Israeli authorities have failed to cultivate relations with Sudanese civilian parties, focusing entirely on Burhan, his subordinate officers, and to a lesser extent the RSF. For three successive governments in Jerusalem, no serious effort was undertaken to show the Sudanese people the potential benefits of normalization. A lone attempt to establish a “Sudan-Israel Friendship Association” in Khartoum quickly faded away, and humanitarian aid sent by an Israeli NGO did not receive any publicity. A handful of Sudanese civilian delegations have visited Israel, but these quiet, infrequent trips are dwarfed in number by the high-ranking military delegations that have arrived on semi-secret missions to seek assistance. This imbalance has exacerbated the wide opposition to normalization among Sudanese political elites, many of whom believe that Israel has been providing intelligence and cyber tools to the military in order to quell recent protests.
In fact, Israel has carefully screened such military requests and refused or deferred the bulk of them in consultation with Washington, which has often expressed its displeasure with Sudanese generals for dragging their feet on establishing a parliamentary system. For instance, when Hemedti sent his brother Gen. Abd al-Rahim Dagalo and his political advisor Yusuf Izzat to present his long wish lists on multiple occasions, Israeli officials were apparently unwilling to play any role in Sudan’s domestic strife—especially given that Hemedti has been repeatedly accused of ordering massacres in Darfur when he headed the Janjaweed militia. Qatari-financed media have spread rumors that the general is getting help from Israel’s Mossad, but such accusations may be a product of Doha’s long-running rivalry with the United Arab Emirates, which has known ties to Hemedti.
Israel’s cautious approach is based on experience acquired over seven decades of intermittent involvement in Sudan. In the 1950s, the late Sadeq al-Mahdi (Mariam’s father) sought Israeli help in his struggle against Egypt’s Gamal Abdul Nasser. The same decade, secret contacts were established with Prime Minister Abdullah Khalil. This engagement flourished with President Jaafar Nimeiri in the 1970s and ‘80s, albeit in a strictly clandestine manner. Nimeiri cooperated in the effort to bring Ethiopian Jews to Israel and allowed the Mossad to maintain a presence in Khartoum. The relationship later deteriorated after Bashir took power, inched closer to Iran, and began facilitating arms shipments to Hamas in the Gaza Strip, spurring Israeli airstrikes on the relevant Sudanese installations. By 2016, however, Bashir had distanced himself from Tehran, and secret contacts with Israel resumed. Notably, Burhan served as chief of military intelligence during this time.
Israel also began a secret program in the 1960s to provide military equipment, training, and diplomatic support to southern rebels in their secession bid against Khartoum. Yet once South Sudan achieved independence in 2011, Israel watched with disappointment as the new state deteriorated into a quagmire of tribal warfare, corruption, and mismanaged resources—a sobering lesson about the risks of pursuing ambitious projects there.
Israel’s interest in Sudan has also been driven in part by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s longstanding desire to open a direct flight route to Latin America in order to boost economic relations there. A permit to overfly Sudan, complemented by similar arrangements with Chad and other states in the Sahel, is still one of his primary foreign policy targets.
Conclusion
The two-and-a-half-year delay in converting the normalization declaration into a signed peace agreement appears to have put the entire process at risk. Even if Sudan forms a civilian government in the near term, it may prove reluctant to test the public mood by concluding a treaty with the “Zionist enemy,” as Israel is often referred to by the local press, social media commentators, and politicians. If Burhan wins his contest with Hemedti, his Islamist allies may convince him to suspend or at least slow down normalization; similarly, if Hemedti prevails, he will have to factor in how the National Umma Party and other potential partners feel about Israel.
Keeping Sudan in the Abraham Accords may therefore require the United States to insist that Khartoum fulfill its commitments and complete the peace agreement—perhaps even by warning the country that it stands to lose the U.S. benefits granted in conjunction with the initial normalization declaration. Most of Sudan’s civilian factions do not want to forfeit American support.
Other countries could help preserve the process as well. The UAE wields significant influence in Khartoum, as does Egypt, which maintains a limited military presence there and enjoys the loyalty of one of Sudan’s biggest factions, the Democratic Unionist Party founded by the late president Ahmed al-Mirghani. Saudi Arabia and neighboring Chad could likewise steer the next civilian government away from leaving the peace track paved by the generals.
*Ehud Yaari is the Lafer International Fellow with The Washington Institute.

Jordan’s retreat from China on 5G could signal a growing distance
David Schenker/The Washington Institute/April 25/2023
Last week, the Jordanian telecom company Zain signed a contract with Nokia to deploy 5G networks in the kingdom. Umniah, another local cellular phone service provider picked Ericsson. Jordan’s third mobile internet operator, Orange, has yet to reveal its 5G choice for several markets, but like its competitors, the firm also seems inclined to select a Swedish or Finnish multinational for its coverage.
The snubbing of Chinese telecommunications behemoth Huawei will disappoint Beijing. Not only is Jordan a participant in China’s Belt and Road Initiative and increasingly a destination of Chinese foreign direct investment, but Huawei also provided the backbone for Jordan’s 2G, 3G and 4G networks.
Beijing is sure to blame U.S. pressure for the exclusion of Huawei from the kingdom’s market. No doubt Amman understood that continued close strategic cooperation with Washington and the goodwill of Congress — which currently provides the monarchy with $1.6 billion per year in financial assistance — would be difficult to sustain if Jordan utilized Huawei for its 5G. Perhaps Amman, like Washington, also came to appreciate that corporations in China are beholden to the government, and therefore data traversing networks supported by Huawei are inherently compromised.
Notwithstanding the U.S. position, the Kingdom had other reasons to be wary of this particularly sensitive Chinese investment. Like so many other states, Jordan finds itself caught in a Chinese debt trap.
Since its establishment in 1946, the Kingdom has been endemically insolvent. King Abdullah II’s strategy to extricate Jordan from this morass relies on attracting billions in foreign direct investment. This dynamic — and the fact that Jordan is Washington’s traditionally most reliable Arab partner — has made Jordan an appealing target for Chinese investment.
In 2015, the monarchy signed agreements in excess of $7 billion with the Middle Kingdom, including a deal to finance Jordan’s Attarat project, the world’s second-largest oil shale plant. The $1.6 billion investment represents Beijing’s largest 100 percent financed project in the Belt and Road Initiative.
Yet Attarat hasn’t turned out as hoped for Jordan. When the deal was inked, critical gas supplies from an Egyptian pipeline had been interrupted by recurrent Islamist militant attacks and the Kingdom was in desperate need of energy. Less than five years later, however, Jordan signed a 15-year, $10 billion contract with Israel to supply the bulk of the kingdom’s natural gas, which provides nearly 80 percent of the energy for electricity generation.
Construction of Attarat is nearly complete, but the kingdom now has a surplus of energy and the facility is no longer required. Worse, the terms of the 30-year power purchase agreement between Beijing and Jordan’s perennially indebted state-owned National Electric Power Company (NEPCO), turn out to be exploitative if not predatory. Already partially open, when this white elephant power plant is fully operational, deficits for NEPCO could reach an estimated $300 million per year.
Seeking relief from its Chinese debt trap, in 2020 Amman initiated arbitration proceedings in the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris to revise the “gross unfairness” of the power purchase agreement. Results of the arbitration are pending, yet a Jordanian victory could prove pyrrhic. Should Amman prevail — or if Huawei is eventually shut out of the kingdom’s 5G tenders — Beijing might seek retribution via its increasingly coercive economic policies. Three years ago, China initiated a trade war against Australia for having the temerity to request an investigation into the origins of COVID-19. In the age of great power competition, even Washington’s closest friends — attracted by easy Chinese money — can find themselves stuck in debt traps and placed in uncomfortable positions. Given the critical need for foreign direct investment in the region, however, Washington cannot compel its friends to choose between the U.S. and China. To be sure, continued bilateral strategic cooperation with the U.S. necessitates that Washington defines some red lines. But all Chinese investments are not equal. Beijing’s 2018 purchase of a 28 percent stake in the Arab Potash Company, a fertilizer enterprise with the kingdom’s third largest market capital on the Amman Stock Exchange, rightly raised little concern in Washington.
Despite complications, Jordan by necessity will continue to seek foreign direct investment, including from China. The challenge for Washington will be to establish and enforce expectations while being tolerant of its partners’ less strategically consequential dealings with Beijing. For Jordan and Washington’s other Arab partners looking to do business with China, Attarat should prove a cautionary tale.
*David Schenker is a senior fellow and director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute and a former assistant secretary of state for Near East affairs during the Trump administration.

How Putin spent 20 years rebuilding Russia's military 'and then just simply destroyed it' in Ukraine, according to an expert who watched it happen
Christopher Woody/Business Insider/April 25, 2023
Vladimir Putin has spent his two decades in power rebuilding and reforming Russia's military.
The force has been "shattered" in Ukraine, Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russian security, said.
"He spent 22 years building a military structure and then just simply destroyed it," he added.
When Russian President Vladimir Putin assumed power in 1999, the Russian military had gone through a decade of post-Soviet decay.
Over the next 20 years, Putin and his military leaders rebuilt that force into one capable of a variety of operations around the world, with advanced warships and aircraft and well-armed troops — all backed up by the world's largest nuclear arsenal. In his book, "Putin's Wars: From Chechnya to Ukraine," Mark Galeotti, a scholar of Russian security affairs who has studied the country since the final years of the Cold War, documents how Russia under Putin reformed and revamped the military and put it to the test in combat in Europe and the Middle East. Below, Galeotti describes those reforms, what they achieved, and how, in a devastating war in Ukraine, Putin has squandered the military he built.
When Putin came to power at the end of the 1990s, what was the state of the Russian military? What kind of condition was it in?
Truly catastrophic is the honest answer. Essentially, there had been no meaningful attempt at reform. It was a shrunken Red Army at a time when, frankly, the Russian state just simply lacked any resources to look after it, control it, protect it. So we had cases of soldiers who had been withdrawn from Germany and they had no homes, no barracks to go to, so they were living in unheated tank sheds. We had soldiers who weren't being paid, so no wonder they went out moonlighting as everything from construction workers to contract killers.
In this context, actually, what was happening is that the military was not in any way a guarantee of Russian security. It was actually a threat to the security of Russia and indeed its neighbors.
Putin himself, he was trained in and rose through the Soviet intelligence apparatus, so what was his relationship with the Russian military when he came to power, and what kind of role did he envision for it?
He had no real relationship with it. We have to note, after all, that this is a man who likes to pose as the tough-guy action figure. He can scarcely walk past a tank or jet fighter without a photo opportunity in the cockpit, but he has no meaningful military experience.
He did the bare-minimum reserve-officer training when he was at university, and then as soon as he left and joined the KGB, he used that to get himself out of any future reserve-officer responsibilities. His career outside, when he left the KGB, it was really as a kind of political fixer in St. Petersburg, so he had some dealings with the military garrison then, but really they were business dealings more than anything else.
So he came to power with no military experience and yet with a very clear belief that Russia needed to be a serious military power. His idea of great-power status is a very 19th-century one, which includes the fact that a great power has the capacity to intimidate or coerce other countries to do what it wants, and for that end, he felt that Russia needed a strong military.
Over the next eight years, Russia waged two wars, a protracted one in Chechnya and then a shorter one in Georgia, and you write that the Russian military's underwhelming performance in Georgia in 2008 enabled Putin's defense minister to push through some serious reforms. How did the Russian military underperform in that conflict in Georgia?
The question of fighting Georgia was never really in doubt. The disproportion between Russia and Georgia in terms of their forces and size was just so huge, so, of course, Russia was going to win. But there was an expectation that it was going to win a lot more neatly and effectively than it really did.
In fact, this is actually a war of blunders in terms of air bases which had long since been mothballed being attacked, of friendly fire incidents, of one case, for example, in which a general actually could not get in touch with his own forces through his communications network and had to borrow a journalist's satellite phone in order just to talk to his own troops. Things like that, which actually, put together, led to a litany of complaints.
Russia lost more planes due to its own friendly fire incidents than to Georgian air defenses. More Russian vehicles broke down, again, than suffered combat damage. So basically, it provided the necessary ammunition to force a recalcitrant and conservative high command to accept that there was a need for reform.
In the reforms that came out of that, the "New Look" army, what were Russia's leaders seeking to change about the how the military looked and functioned?
Essentially, it was to try and drag the military out of its Soviet era. The thing is, the Soviet military had really been based around the trauma of the Second World War and this idea that the motherland might need to be defended by some sort of massive, million-man army. So it was really a structure to ensure that if need be, they could mobilize reservists, so you had large numbers of conscripts who then would be ready, and [the reform] was all about really quality rather than quantity.
The point is what, at that time, the Russian leadership realized was actually Russia was not going to face that kind of massive, existential big war. Despite the propaganda that still spread, NATO was not about to drive eastward, and if, God forbid, the Chinese ever invaded, well, frankly, the only response to that that would make any sense would be nuclear. So instead, what they thought was Russia faces a future in which it's more likely to be involved in smaller, scrappier border conflicts and power-projection missions, so it needed a smaller military but one that was more flexible, more efficient, and generally more modern.
By 2015, Russia had engaged in two more wars: the war in Ukraine in 2014, which was largely a proxy fight, and then the limited intervention in Syria. What did those conflicts show about the capabilities of the Russian military and about the impact of those reforms?
They were showing that the reforms were actually working. I mean, it was still a work in progress, but nonetheless it demonstrated that just as Russian special forces proved to be a lot more professional and efficient than we might have expected in the seizure of Crimea in 2014, well, likewise, the air force performed much more efficiently in Syria than we thought.
I remember when it first happened, when the first forces were deployed [to Syria], there was a lot of assumption within Western-defense-analyst circles that the Russians would not be able to sustain it, that sooner or later their planes would start falling out of the sky because of bad maintenance, that they wouldn't be able to get the necessary logistical support in place, all that kind of thing, and yet the Russians managed it.
So it showed that, in fact, reform was having a real impact, but I think it also, in hindsight, demonstrated two other things. First of all was that actually reform was still focused on a relative handful of elite elements within the military. It's not as though every single Russian soldier was now at that capability. But secondly, it worked precisely because of this new expectation that Russia would not be fighting a big war, and that clearly would come back to bite it in February 2022.
After you write about Donbas and Syria, you have a chapter about the investments and modernization efforts for Russia's military. Could you go through what the big-ticket investments were and what Russia was trying to do with its military by buying all that new equipment?
In many ways, it was actually trying to emulate the United States, but, of course, it's a little bit difficult to emulate the United States when you have a national GDP about the same as Spain's. But nonetheless, the idea was precisely to create a modern, flexible force that could operate across the full spectrum of military operations.
So then you had, for example, modernized nuclear forces as the final backstop of national security all the way through, though, to having the kind of highly flexible special forces whom you can then deploy into a whole variety of smaller-scale, often kind of political missions, and so everything in between. So again, it was tremendously ambitious because they were trying to hit every single base. Still, of course, the focus was on the nuclear forces and power-projection forces.
The navy continued to be, in some ways, the sort of problem child because Russia is not really a blue-water naval power, but still, even the navy was getting more than its fair share of new kit and such like. So I think it was an attempt to create a force which could basically do anything, which is great if you have the equivalent to the American defense budget. When you don't, what that means is you get to do a bit of everything, but you don't actually still manage to sustain any elements of that program.
You write that there were "myriad" indications that the 2022 war in Ukraine was not a war as Russia's General Staff would wage it. So how has the execution of the current war differed from what you would have expected from Russia's military?
The Russian military, after all, has this very intellectual approach to war fighting, with lots of deeply tedious journal articles being written about it and a very clear, almost methodological approach to actually how they would fight a war, and in particular, they categorize wars along a whole kind of spectrum, and they have different ways in which they would address each type of war.
Now, a war in a country of more than 40 million people is obviously going to be a serious conflict, at the very least a regional war. And according to how Russian military doctrine suggests you'd approach that, you would have, first of all, a long buildup, you would set up carefully structured elements to plan it, to ensure that there's a clear chain of command, to assemble all the various means, whether it's soldiers or ammunition or whatever else, needed for it.
People would spend months preparing something like this, and then when the war starts, you would start with a massed — they call it a MRAU — a massed rocket-artillery strike to shatter every element of the other side, even before your forces roll across the border. And then when they do roll across the border, you would have one clear overall commander who actually has one vision of how the war can be won.
None of that was actually present in this conflict. There was no real concept of what this war would be because Putin didn't think there was really going to be a war. There wasn't the establishment of the specialized structures. There wasn't the long-term planning. There weren't all the necessary logistics in place. There wasn't a central commander. I mean, essentially, it broke every single rule, and that's simply because, as far as Putin was concerned, this was not going to be a war. He genuinely seems to have believed that Ukraine, this noncountry, would not be defended by its own people and it would basically fall apart at the first push.
In the 14 months since Russia attacked, have you seen Russian military leaders revert back to what you would have expected from them, or is Russian leadership still kind of improvising in Ukraine?
To large extent, it's still improvising because its real problem is this: that Putin has not learned the lesson that Stalin learned. Stalin, famously and disastrously, involved himself right at the beginning of the Second World War in terms of asserting that, of course, Germany was not going to attack when it attacked.
After the first hammer blow of the German invasion, Stalin realized that he needed to step back and let the generals do the general-ing while he set political objectives. Putin continues to try and micromanage, so I think, in this case, that the problem is that the generals don't have the authority to do what they may feel needs to be done. The classic example was the previous joint-force commander, Surovikin, who essentially realized that actually the need was to entrench and prepare to defend against a Ukrainian offensive, and Putin had him removed because he wasn't aggressive enough.
So I think the generals do their bests, but they haven't coped with the fact that they've lost their best equipment and their best soldiers in those early weeks and months of the war. So the forces they've got don't really allow them to be particularly inventive or clever, and Putin is constantly placing political demands upon them that distorts any kind of strategy.
On those losses, a little over a year into the war, Russia's military has lost thousands of armored vehicles, dozens of combat aircraft, and taken tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of casualties. The war still seems like it's far from over, but what do you think the ultimate impact of this war is going to be on the Russian military and its ability to function as a military?
I think that in wider terms, it's been shattered. Even if the war ends tomorrow, in my opinion, it would take a decade to reconstitute Russian forces to the level they were at in January last year, and that's assuming that Russia can and is willing to spend what it takes and has access to the kind of computer chips and everything else that will be needed, which are very, very questionable assumptions, quite frankly.
I think that to a large extent, Putin has destroyed his own military structures. This is why I think this is Putin's last war, apart from it might lead to his political downfall, and in any case, he would probably be very, very cautious about any future adventures. But I also just simply think that he won't have the military capabilities for any but the most limited types of military deployments. So essentially, he spent 22 years building a military structure and then just simply destroyed it.