English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For April 19/2023
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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15 آذار/2023
Bible Quotations For today
They devised a plan to give a large sum of money to the soldiers,
telling them, ‘You must say, "His disciples came by night and stole him away
while we were asleep
Matthew 28/11-15: "While they were going, some of the guard went into the city
and told the chief priests everything that had happened. After the priests had
assembled with the elders, they devised a plan to give a large sum of money to
the soldiers, telling them, ‘You must say, "His disciples came by night and
stole him away while we were asleep."If this comes to the governor’s ears, we
will satisfy him and keep you out of trouble.’So they took the money and did as
they were directed. And this story is still told among the Jews to this day."
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on April 18-19/2023
UK imposes sanctions on art collector Nazem Ahmad accused of financing
Hezbollah/Daniel Boffey Chief reporter/The Guardian/April 18/2023
52 individuals and companies with the largest sanctions list targeting Hezbollah
US State Department Rewards for Justice Program offers reward of up to $7
Million for Information on Ibrahim Aqil
Lebanese Cabinet approves 4-fold increase to public sector wages
Lebanese Opposition seeks agreement on 'third candidate'
Sami Gemayel rejects pro-Hezbollah president in talks with Durel
US, UN start implementing material support program for ISF
Frangieh hopes for unity, good for Arabs and Saudi Arabia
Franjieh upbeat over regional thaw, says refugee return would be priority
Franjieh 'won't continue nomination' if no positivity from Gulf states
Tear gas, clashes as retirees try to storm Grand Serail ahead of cabinet session
Defending free speech: Lawyers' struggle against Beirut Bar Association's
restrictions
Lebanon faces rising frequency of forest fires: report
Broken currencies: Unveiling the downfall of Lebanon's purchasing power
Lebanese cabinet approves special provision for American basketball player Omari
Spellman to Join national team
Lebanon’s parliament votes to postpone municipal elections
US Embassy Beirut marks 40th anniversary of 1983 embassy bombing
Lebanon's Parliament Votes to Postpone Municipal Elections
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on April 18-19/2023
Netanyahu says Saudi normalisation could end Arab-Israeli conflict
Israel remembers 6 million Jews killed in Holocaust
Qatar and UAE in process of restoring diplomatic ties
Saudi foreign minister in Syria for talks with President Assad
Iran’s president threatens 'harsh response to Israeli aggression'
Tehran Speaks about Reopening Embassy in Riyadh on May 9
Iran Renews Threats against Israel during Army Day Parade
Son of Iran’s Shah Pahlavi Visits Israel
Sudan's Warring Generals Agree 24-hour Ceasefire after US Pressure
Egypt reverses plan to give rockets to Russia, leaked documents suggest
Macron 'working on secret plan' with China to end Ukraine war
Putin met with a sanctioned Xi Jinping aide, a middle finger to the US that
could help Russia's invasion of Ukraine
Romania next in east Europe to look at Ukraine grain import ban
China offers to facilitate Israel-Palestinian peace talks
U.S.'s Blinken says Beijing needs to make its intentions clear
Titles For
The Latest
English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on April 18-19/2023
Why Don't Americans Trust the Biden Administration on Iran?/Majid
Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/April 18, 2023
Breaking Down Arab Issues/Samir Atallah/Asharq Al-Awsat/April, 18/2023
The US and NATO must team up in the Gulf/Bilal Y. Saab/Arab News/April 18, 2023
The de-dollarisation delusion/Christian Le Miere/The Arab Weekly/Tuesday, 18
April, 2023
Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on April 18-19/2023
UK imposes sanctions on art collector Nazem Ahmad
accused of financing Hezbollah
Daniel Boffey Chief reporter/The Guardian/April 18/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/117532/117532/
Nazem Ahmad, who has owned works by Picasso and Warhol, suspected of laundering
money for militant group
A high-profile art collector has been put on a Treasury sanctions list and
charged in the US over claims that he uses his collection, which has included
masterpieces by Pablo Picasso, Antony Gormley and Andy Warhol, to launder money
for the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
Nazem Ahmad, a diamond and art dealer who once posed in his Beirut penthouse for
a glossy magazine and featured in a piece about the “world’s most beautiful
homes and the fascinating people who live in them”, has been targeted in the UK
under new counter-terrorism powers.
He had previously been put on a sanctions list by the US Treasury, and on
Tuesday, a New York court charged him, along with eight co-defendants including
his son and daughter, of defying those prohibitions by completing art and jewel
transactions worth $160m since 2019. An unnamed suspect was arrested in the UK
as part of the US investigation.
Ahmad, who has not yet been located, did not respond to a request for comment
when approached by this newspaper via his gallery in Beirut or on social media.
In the UK Treasury’s announcement of sanctions, Ahmad had been described as a
suspected financier of Hezbollah, a Shia Muslim political movement backed by
Iran and which the UK government classified in its entirety as a terrorist group
in 2019.
According to the Treasury, Ahmad, who has 172,000 Instagram followers, has a
large art collection in the UK and is well known in the British art community,
where he is said to have worked with “multiple UK-based artists, art galleries
and auction houses”.All of Ahmad’s assets in the UK, including what has been
described as an “extensive art collection”, have now been frozen, the Treasury
said, and British artists, galleries and auction houses have been prohibited
from trading with him or six named companies, including his Artual gallery in
Beirut, which is run by his daughter, Hind Nazem Ahmad.
The Treasury minister in the House of Lords, Joanna Penn, said: “We will always
proactively defend our economy against those who seek to abuse it. The firm
action we have taken today will clamp down on those who are funding
international terrorism, strengthening the UK’s economic and national security.”
Ahmad is accused of using art to shelter and launder money for the purposes of
terrorism. The use of art, a sector that historically tends towards discretion
and the protection of privacy, for the purpose of laundering involves the buying
and selling of high-valued pieces to disguise the origins of illegally obtained
funds.
Pieces can be relatively easily sold across national borders without alerting
the authorities. The subjective nature of the value of art allows prices to be
easily inflated or deflated.
The antiquities, art and cultural object market is said to have had a global
value of $65.1bn in 2021, according to the Financial Action Task Force, an
intergovernmental laundering watchdog that issued a report in February to advise
on regulatory best practice.
Five years ago, Ahmad featured in articles in the Architectural Digest Middle
East and the Selections Art magazine. It was claimed his collection included
works by Jean-Michel Basquiat, Ai Weiwei, Thomas Heatherwick and Marc Quinn,
among others. During an interview, Ahmad also spoke of his first art purchase,
which he described as a work on paper by Picasso, bought in the early 1990s.
In 2019, the US Treasury had imposed sanctions against Ahmad and two others,
describing him as the personal financier to the Hezbollah secretary general,
Hassan Nasrallah. Ahmad had been considered a “major Hezbollah financial donor”
since 2016, they said.
According to a nine-count indictment unsealed on Tuesday in the US district
court for the eastern district of New York, Ahmad and his co-defendants had
defied those sanction and had since 2019 “relied on a complex web of business
entities to obtain valuable artwork from US artists and art galleries and to
secure US-based diamond-grading services, all while hiding Ahmad’s involvement”.
In a statement, the US Department of Justice (DOJ) said Ahmad had commissioned
works and negotiated their sale all while insisting that his connection was kept
from public view.
“Approximately $160m worth of artwork and diamond-grading services were
transacted through the US financial system,” the DoJ said. “One defendant was
arrested today in the United Kingdom at the request of the United States, and
the eight remaining defendants, including Ahmad, are believed to reside outside
the United States and remain at large.”
Ahmad has previously denied reports that he was linked to financing Hezbollah.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/18/uk-imposes-sanctions-art-collector-accused-financing-hezbollah-nazem-ahmad
52 individuals and companies with the largest
sanctions list targeting Hezbollah
Al-Modon/April 19/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/117537/117537/
In one of its largest sanctions lists, the US Treasury's Office of Foreign
Assets Control (OFAC) has identified a vast international money laundering and
sanctions evasion network of 52 individuals and entities in Lebanon, the United
Arab Emirates, South Africa, Angola, Côte d'Ivoire, and the Democratic Republic
of the Congo. Congo, Belgium, United Kingdom and Hong Kong.
Diamonds and luxury goods
According to the US Department, this network facilitated the payment, shipment,
and delivery of cash, diamonds, precious stones, art, and luxury goods for the
benefit of Hezbollah financier and specially designated global terrorist, Nazim
Saeed Ahmed, who was designated on December 13, 2019, for providing resources
and support to Hezbollah. The network listed today includes dozens of
individuals and companies associated with them, who were involved in helping
Nazem Saeed Ahmed evade US sanctions, to preserve his ability to fund Hezbollah
and his luxurious lifestyle. This classification is part of a coordinated work
with the Department of Homeland Security, the Foreign Office's Rewards for
Justice Programme, and the United Kingdom (see Cities). “Participants in the
luxury goods market should be alert to these potential schemes and tactics,
which allow terrorist financiers, money launderers and sanctions evaders to
launder illicit proceeds through the purchase and shipment of luxury goods,”
said Brian E., Undersecretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial
Intelligence. The Treasury Department had documented the money laundering and
terrorist financing risks associated with the trade in artworks in its report
issued in February 2022 entitled "Study of Facilitating Money Laundering and
Financing of Terrorism through the Trade of Artworks." OFAC is designating this
complex network of family members, business partners, and corporations under
Executive Order (EO) 13224, as amended, which targets terrorists, terrorist
organizations, leaders and officials of terrorist groups, and those who provide
support to terrorists or their businesses.
US State Department Rewards for Justice Program offers reward of up to $7
Million for Information on Ibrahim Aqil
LBCI/April 18, 2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/117527/117527/
On Tuesday, coinciding with the 40th anniversary of Hezbollah’s bombing of the
US Embassy in Beirut, the US Department of State’s Rewards for Justice (RFJ)
program announced a reward of up to $7 million for information leading to the
identification, location, arrest, and/or conviction of Hezbollah leader Ibrahim
Aqil. Also known as Tahsin, Aqil serves on the Jihad Council, Hezbollah’s
highest military body.
Lebanese Cabinet approves 4-fold increase to public
sector wages
NNA/April 18, 2023
The Council of Ministers approved on Tuesday a 4-fold increase to public sector
wages, in addition to the two salaries that were previously approved, provided
that attendance is 14 days per month. A temporary transportation allowance has
also been approved at LBP 450 thousand per day, provided that attendance does
not exceed 18 days per month. As for the private sector, the minimum wage for
employees has been set at LBP 9 million per month, and a daily wage of LBP
400,000. The cost of living is to be increased to LBP 4,500,000, and daily
transportation at LBP 250,000 for the private sector.
Lebanese Opposition seeks agreement on 'third
candidate'
Naharnet/April 18, 2023
After the nominations of Suleiman Franjieh and Michel Mouawad “nearly reached a
dead end,” efforts got underway to find a “third candidate” on which the
opposition’s 45 MPs can agree, political sources said. “There are more than 20
MPs who are yet to take a stance, pending consensus on an acceptable candidate
whom they can support,” the sources told the al-Anbaa news portal of the
Progressive Socialist Party. “Contacts are ongoing behind the scenes with the
heads of a number of parliamentary blocs and in coordination with Maronite
Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi and they have made some progress,” the sources added.
However, these contacts “remain of no value pending proposals or consent from
the Shiite Duo,” the sources went on to say.
Sami Gemayel rejects pro-Hezbollah president in
talks with Durel
Naharnet/April 18, 2023
Kataeb Party chief Sami Gemayel has met at the Elysee Palace with French
presidential advisor Patrick Durel. “We did not discuss (presidential)
candidates and there is a French idea that was being circulated in this regard,”
Gemayel said after the talks. “We had to clarify that should we all bow anew to
Hezbollah’s conditions, this would mean that any president or premier in Lebanon
would have to wait at Dahiyeh’s gates to win (Hezbollah’s) blessing before
assuming their responsibility,” the Kataeb chief added. Gemayel also revealed
that he would return to Beirut with “the mentality of unifying efforts, the
confrontation and the opposition in order to preserve Lebanon’s sovereignty and
independence.”
US, UN start implementing material support program
for ISF
Naharnet/April 18, 2023
U.S. Embassy Beirut and the United Nations commence Tuesday cash distributions
under the “Livelihood Support Program.”The first tranche of this program, valued
at $16.5 million, will disburse temporary financial support for Internal
Security Forces (ISF) personnel. These payments will provide eligible ISF
members with $100 per month for a period of six months, the U.S. embassy said in
a statement.
"This program will help alleviate some of the economic hardship faced by ISF
personnel who are exerting tremendous efforts to serve their country, its
people, and the residents on its lands, ultimately contributing to the overall
security and stability of the country," the statement said. the U.S. embassy
added that as a part of the U.S.-funded program, the United Nations Development
Program (UNDP) is working with a nationwide financial service provider to
disburse these funds to eligible ISF members. "ISF members will receive text
messages from the financial service provider as of April 18 for three days that
their first disbursement is ready as soon as the ISF member receives the text
message," the embassy said.
"The initiation of cash disbursements is a concrete demonstration of the United
States’ ongoing commitment to supporting the ISF’s critical efforts to uphold
the rule of law and defend the people of Lebanon. The Lebanese Armed Forces will
benefit from this U.S.-sponsored, UNDP-implemented program, with initial
disbursements beginning very soon."
Frangieh hopes for unity, good for Arabs and Saudi
Arabia
LBCI/April 18, 2023
Head of the Marada Movement, Sleiman Frangieh, stated on Tuesday that "the game
has changed in the region, and this will have an impact on Lebanon in one way or
another.""We hope for unity in the region and only want good for the Arabs and
the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. We were raised in an Arab household," Frangieh
indicated.
Regarding the presidential file, Frangieh explained after meeting with Maronite
Patriarch Bechara al-Rai in Bkerke: "My goal is not power, but rather to be a
president who leaves his mark. I have not heard a Saudi veto from the kingdom or
its friends."In this context, he pointed out that he needs 34 votes other than
the votes of Hezbollah, Amal Movement, and Jamil al-Sayyed. He then indicated
that "his visit to France included simple questions about seeking reforms,"
stressing that "we support any government that carries out reforms, and I will
not give up 1 percent of the powers of the President of the Republic." "It is
obvious that we must move forward with reforms and support the agreement with
the IMF," he said. On another note, Frangieh tackled the file of the Syrian
refugees, confirming that "the issue of Syrian refugees will be a priority for
any upcoming government, and I will use my relationship with President Bashar
Al-Assad for the benefit of the country."He also pointed out, "Concerning
weapons, we support the call for a defensive and national strategy that protects
Lebanon, and we are ready to engage in dialogue with anyone with concerns."
Franjieh upbeat over regional thaw, says refugee
return would be priority
Naharnet/April 18, 2023
Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh held talks Tuesday in Bkirki with
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi. “What we’re seeing in the media is baseless
and distorted, seeing as settlements have started in the region, rivals will
reconcile, the game has changed and this matter will reflect on Lebanon,”
Franjieh said after the meeting. “We are ready for dialogue with anyone who has
concerns and I don’t have any embarrassment toward anyone,” he added. Noting
that he would not “give up 1% of the president’s powers” should he be elected,
Franjieh reassured that he would practice his powers “responsibly and not
through political malice.”“My aim is not power but rather to be a president who
would leave his mark and I have not heard of a Saudi veto from the kingdom or
from its friends,” the Marada chief added. “We have never had any hostile stance
toward any Arab state, especially Saudi Arabia, and we hope Arabs will reconcile
with each other and that such consensus in the region will reflect on Lebanon.
We were born in an Arabist house and we only wish well for the kingdom,”
Franjieh said. As for his recent visit to France, Franjieh said it involved
“simple questions about backing reforms,” noting that he would support any
reformist government. “It is normal that we would carry out the reforms and we
support an agreement with the International Monetary Fund,” the Marada chief
added. As for Hezbollah’s controversial arsenal of weapons, Franjieh said “the
solution lies in a dialogue over a defense strategy and should I become
president I will sponsor such a dialogue.”Franjieh also noted that “the issue of
Syrian refugees will be among the priorities of any upcoming presidential
tenure,” vowing to employ his good “personal relation” with Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad to “serve the country’s interest.”
Franjieh 'won't continue nomination' if no
positivity from Gulf states
Naharnet /April 18, 2023
Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh “will not continue with his presidential
nomination if he does not sense a positive stance from the Gulf states and the
Arab nations regarding this nomination,” caretaker Information Minister Ziad
Makari of the Marada Movement said. “He does not intend to repeat the experience
of ex-president Michel Aoun” with the Gulf countries, Makari told al-Hurra
television.
“The relation of any candidate with Gulf countries and the Arab neighborhood is
an essential condition for nomination and Franjieh and his camp have this firm
believe,” Makari added. Asked about the top three Christian parties’ decision to
refrain from voting for Franjieh, Makari said: “Franjieh is capable of winning
one third of Christian votes in the presidential election from independent
Christian figures and others who perhaps belong to the FPM.”
Tear gas, clashes as retirees try to storm Grand
Serail ahead of cabinet session
Naharnet/April 18, 2023
Security forces Tuesday fired tear gas to disperse hundreds of protesters,
including retired soldiers, who tried to break through the fence leading to the
government headquarters in downtown Beirut, ahead of a cabinet session. The
protesters hurled stones at the armed forces protecting the government
headquarters and repeatedly tried to break through the fence, while some of them
suffered breathing problems from the tear gas. Cabinet will discuss today,
Tuesday, nine items on its agenda, most notably increasing the salaries and
transport allowances of the public and private sectors and the funding needed
for the municipal elections. Public sector employees and retirees get paid in
Lebanese pounds and have seen the value of their salaries drop over the past
years as the pound crashed, while most grocery stores, restaurants and other
businesses are pricing their goods and services in dollars.
Defending free speech: Lawyers' struggle against
Beirut Bar Association's restrictions
LBCI/April 18, 2023
In "Mother of Laws," the Beirut Bar Association continues to restrict lawyers'
freedom of expression. The latest episodes of this restriction include summoning
three lawyers for investigation: Nizar Saghieh, Hussein Ramadan, and Youssef al-Khatib.
Lawyers Hussein Ramadan and Youssef al-Khatib were orally summoned to attend a
hearing with the Commissioner of Justice Palace, based on a request from the Bar
Association President Nader Kaspar, sources told LBCI.
Ramadan's summon is related to a social media post in which he criticized a
member of the Bar Association, while al-Khatib's summon is related to a social
media post in which he tackled financial issues related to the Lawyers'
Retirement Fund. However, the summon of lawyer Nizar Saghieh for a hearing
before the Beirut Bar Association was different. The summon did not mention the
reasons or basis for this request. Saghieh publicly announced his rejection of
the Bar Association's decision. He is one of the 13 lawyers who filed a lawsuit
challenging the Bar Association's decision before the Court of Appeals that
examine bar-related cases, which has set May 4th as the date for the ruling.
LBCI have repeatedly tried to contact Nader Kaspar, the President of the Beirut
Bar Association, to understand the reasons behind these summons, but there has
been no response. How can a Bar Association, which is supposed to uphold the
principle of freedom, summon lawyers?
Lebanon faces rising frequency of forest fires:
report
LBCI/April 18, 2023
Annually, Lebanon witnesses a series of fires in its forests, which often extend
to "devour" all its lands from north to south, expanding remarkably to reach
residential areas, destroying agricultural and forest lands, and leaving massive
damage to the environment and the economy.
This article was originally published in and translated from Lebanese newspaper
Nidaa al-Watan. Early this year, due to the fires that swept a number of its
regions starting last February, the most prominent question remains about the
extent of the Lebanese state's readiness to confront these fires in light of the
suffocating crisis it is going through, especially since it is no secret to
anyone that the preparations and the equipment allocated for extinguishing fires
in Lebanon are still shy.
In this context, the General Directorate of Civil Defense revealed via Nidaa al-Watan
that the fires of forests, herbs, and waste that devoured the surrounding green
spaces during the past months were distributed as follows: in January, 408
fires, in February, 420 fires, in March 394 fires, until the 13th of April 183
fires, bringing the total to 1405 fires. As for a reason for the start of the
fire season early this year, Samir Skaf, President of Green Globe , told "Nidaa
Al-Watan" that the winter season was weak this year, and the amount of
precipitation was small, which led to an increase in the drought rate, and the
quality of rain changed from the past. The weather was dry, and the trees did
not retain the rain in their roots. Therefore, the grass became dry. Adding that
"forest areas are the most vulnerable to fires, especially areas that have pines
or Olive, we are witnessing the most significant percentage of fires in Akkar,
Jouroud, Zgharta, and Bsharri, all the way to Koura, the regions of Mount
Lebanon, the Chouf and the northern Metn, and the forested areas in the south,
Bkassine, and Jezzine, while the percentage of fires is low in parts of the
Bekaa due to the lack of trees. Regarding the cause of fires in Lebanon
recently, the Founder of T.E.R.R.E.Liban, Paul Abi Rached, explained that
municipalities that burn waste in random dumps in nature, valleys, and near
green spaces became "time bombs," leading to more and more fires in forests. The
General Directorate of Civil Defense confirmed to Nidaa al-Watan's website that
the fires that broke out until today are within the usual rate for such a year.
Civil defense elements also confront them according to the available
capabilities, noting that there has never been a delay in responding to the call
of national duty." It also stressed that "when the need arises, reinforcements
are brought in from multiple centers in terms of mechanisms and elements to be
able to control the fire and limit the damage to a minimum." The General
Directorate of Civil Defense also reminded citizens to adhere to its guidelines
to preserve forest wealth. It reminded them to call the emergency number 125 so
that the members of the center closest to the fire site are dispatched and the
damage is limited to a minimum. In conclusion, Lebanon is not the only Middle
Eastern country ravaged by fires every season, but it remains the smallest in
size with its green spaces and the least prepared to confront them.
Broken currencies: Unveiling the downfall of
Lebanon's purchasing power
LBCI/April 18, 2023
In the past, during the 1950s and 1970s, the purchasing power of citizens was
high, and the cost of living for an individual was only half a lira a day. The
exchange rate for the US dollar did not exceed 3 Lebanese Liras. Today, demands
are being raised to increase salaries and wages to address the collapsing
purchasing power, as the exchange rate has reached 100,000 LBP. However, these
demands seem challenging to meet. So, what is the context of the ongoing
collapse? In the 1990s, pegging the exchange rate at 1,500 LBP to the US dollar
came at a cost: it required providing sufficient quantities of hard currency to
the Central Bank of Lebanon to maintain the Lebanese Lira's stability and
finance the expenses of the government and imports.
Lebanese cabinet approves special provision for
American basketball player Omari Spellman to Join national team
LBCI/April 18, 2023
On Tuesday afternoon, the Lebanese Cabinet granted an exceptional mechanism that
would allow American basketball player Omari Spellman to play for the Lebanese
national basketball team. This decision comes after the Lebanese Basketball
Federation successfully secured a deal with the 25-year-old ex-NBA player, who
currently plays in the Korean league and is considered one of the best players
in the league. Initially, the Lebanese government, including caretaker PM Najib
Mikati and the Youth and Sports Minister, refused to consider Spellman's
naturalization, deeming it unconstitutional. Many speculated that the
government's reluctance was due to political reasons, such as the potential
infringement on "Maronite privileges" of the presidency and setting a precedent.
Despite the government's initial refusal, the federation remained hopeful and
aimed to put public pressure on the government to change their stance. With the
deadline for Spellman's naturalization set for May, the government's approval
comes just in time for the World Cup preparations. In light of the recent
approval, the national team continues to train and prepare for the World Cup,
now with renewed hope that they can compete at their full potential with the
addition of Omari Spellman.
Lebanon’s parliament votes to postpone
municipal elections
AP/April 18, 2023
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s parliament Tuesday postponed municipal elections for up to a
year for a second time amid concerns the government would not be able to secure
the needed funding in time for polling. The delay came as Lebanon’s economy and
infrastructure continue to crumble, with legislators in the deeply divided
parliament unable to reach a settlement to end a presidential vacuum for almost
six months. Lebanon has been without a fully functioning government for nearly a
year as Prime Minister Najib Mikati heads a caretaker Cabinet with limited
functions. The country has also been in a severe economic crisis since late
2019, with three-quarters of the population now living in poverty. Riot police
lobbed tear gas at hundreds of protesting retired soldiers who broke down a
barbed wire fence near the government headquarters in downtown Beirut ahead of a
scheduled Cabinet meeting. Retired military personnel have frequently protested
the country’s dire economic conditions. Lebanon’s municipal elections were
originally slated for May last year but were postponed for a year because they
coincided with parliamentary elections, which brought in a dozen reformist
lawmakers running on anti-establishment platforms.
Opposition and reformist groups would likely continue this momentum and win
additional seats in the upcoming local elections, as living conditions across
the country continue to deteriorate. They have called for municipal elections to
take place as planned in May, and most have boycotted parliament’s session.
Meanwhile, top political groups and leaders continue to quarrel. Mikati’s
government and various major political groups in parliament, notably the
Christian Free Patriotic Movement, have accused each other of stalling the
securing of funding and logistics that caused the delay. “If you really didn’t
want to postpone municipal elections, why did you attend today’s session and
secure a quorum?” The prime minister said at parliament in a heated dispute with
several parliamentarians. Just 65 of Lebanon’s 128 lawmakers attended, the bare
minimum needed for a legislative session to secure a quorum.
Earlier this month, caretaker Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi, whose ministry
oversees elections, said Lebanon was ready to hold timely municipal elections,
and that he had secured funding from the European Union and the United Nations
to ease the burden on the country’s shoestring budget. Both the EU and the UN
have urged the crisis-hit country to hold elections on time. However,
legislators have yet to pass a draft law that would secure an advance to the
Interior Ministry. Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab said in a parliamentary
committee session on funding that holding the vote on time would be “impossible”
and added that Mawlawi’s representative had told lawmakers they could not secure
the funds despite the interior minister’s claims. Lebanon’s last municipal
elections in 2016 saw low voter turnout. In Beirut, local media reported a 20
percent voter turnout, whereas 48 percent of voters in Baalbek near the Syrian
border cast their ballots. In Lebanon’s sect-based power-sharing system,
citizens only directly vote in parliamentary and municipal elections.
Parliamentarians, split evenly between Muslim and Christian sects, vote for a
Maronite Christian president, who then negotiates alongside them to bring in a
Sunni Muslim prime minister. The speaker of parliament is a Shiite Muslim.
US Embassy Beirut marks 40th anniversary of
1983 embassy bombing
Naharnet/April 18/2023
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/98012/1983-united-states-embassy-bombing-in-%d8%b0%d9%83%d8%b1%d9%89-%d8%aa%d9%81%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d8%a7%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%88%d8%ad%d8%b2%d8%a8%d9%87%d8%a7-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5%d8%b1%d9%87%d8%a7/
U.S. Embassy Beirut on Tuesday marked the 40th anniversary of the April 18, 1983
bombing of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, in which a suicide bomber attacked the
embassy, killing 63, including 52 Lebanese and American Embassy employees.
Families of the victims joined Ambassador Dorothy Shea, Deputy Chief of Mission
Richard Michaels, and the Embassy community to honor and pay tribute to the men
and women who lost their lives in this attack, and to pay respects to their
families and loved ones. “Forty years after the bombing, the United States
remains committed to its efforts to defeat terrorists wherever they are. The
American people will never forget those who lost their lives while pursuing
peace, promoting human rights, and advancing fundamental freedoms,” a U.S.
Embassy statement said.
Ambassador Shea laid a wreath at the U.S. Embassy memorial adorned with the
phrase, "They Came in Peace," as DCM Michaels placed a wreath at the site of the
original embassy at Ain al-Mreisseh in Beirut. Members of the Embassy community
“said the names of each victim, remembered their service, and honored their
sacrifice,” the statement said. In her remarks, Ambassador Shea observed that,
“those who made the decision to violently murder our colleagues, and to wound
our Embassy family underestimated us.” “They did not understand that the bonds
we all share are strong, despite the fear and intimidation that they may try to
instill. Let us show, with our continued commitment to this community, to our
shared goals, that in their effort to break us, Hezbollah failed. No one can
break the resolve we all share – to work together, care for one another, and
support a better future for the Lebanese people,” Shea added. “The people of the
United States and Lebanon have the strength and the will to continue forward,
into a better, brighter, and more peaceful future,” she said.
Lebanon's Parliament Votes to Postpone Municipal Elections
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 18 April, 2023
Lebanon’s parliament on Tuesday postponed municipal elections for up to a year
for a second time amid concerns the government would not be able to secure the
needed funding in time for the polling. The delay comes as Lebanon’s economy and
infrastructure continue to crumble, with legislators in the deeply divided
parliament unable to reach a settlement to end a presidential vacuum for almost
six months, The Associated Press said. Lebanon has also been without a fully
functioning government for nearly a year as Prime Minister Najib Mikati is
heading a caretaker Cabinet with limited functions. The country has also been in
a severe economic crisis since late 2019, with three-quarters of the population
now living in poverty. Lebanon’s municipality elections were originally slated
for May 2022 but were postponed for a year because they coincided with
parliamentary elections, which brought in a dozen reformist lawmakers running on
anti-establishment platforms. Earlier this month, caretaker Interior Minister
Bassam Mawlawi, whose ministry oversees elections, said that Lebanon was ready
to hold timely municipality elections, and that he had secured funding from the
European Union and the United Nations to ease the burden on the country’s
shoestring budget. Both the EU and the UN have urged the crisis-hit country to
hold elections on time. However, legislators have yet to pass a draft law that
would secure an advance to the Interior Ministry. Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab
said in a parliamentary committee session on funding that holding the vote on
time would be “impossible" and added that Mawlawi’s representative had told
lawmakers they could not secure the funds despite the interior minister's
claims. Lebanon’s last municipal elections in 2016 saw low voter turnout. In
Beirut, local media reported a 20% voter turnout, whereas 48% of voters in
Baalbek near the Syrian border cast their ballots. In Lebanon’s sect-based
power-sharing system, citizens only directly vote in parliamentary and municipal
elections. Parliamentarians, split evenly between Muslim and Christian sects
vote for a Maronite Christian president, who then negotiates alongside them to
bring in a Sunni Muslim prime minister. The speaker of parliament is a Shiite
Muslim.
Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports
And News published on April 18-19/2023
Netanyahu says Saudi normalisation
could end Arab-Israeli conflict
The Arab
Weekly/Tuesday, 18 April, 2023
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said on Monday that normalising
relations with Saudi Arabia would be a “giant leap” towards ending the
Arab-Israeli conflict. “We want normalisation and peace with Saudi Arabia. We
view that as perhaps a giant leap towards ending the Arab-Israeli conflict,”
Netanyahu said, speaking during a meeting in Jerusalem with US Republican
Senator Lindsey Graham. “This agreement could have monumental consequences,
historic consequences both for Israel, for Saudi Arabia, for the region and for
the world,” Netanyahu said. Israel has opened diplomatic ties with several Arab
countries since 2020, including Saudi Arabia’s neighbours the United Arab
Emirates and Bahrain. But Riyadh has held back from recognising Israel, saying
such a move should be tied to recognition of Palestinian statehood rights. A
huge setback for Netanyahu’s efforts came last month when a China-brokered deal
saw Israel’s major regional foe, Iran, mend its ties with Saudi Arabia. Iran’s
embassy in Riyadh reopened its gates last Wednesday for the first time in seven
years. Separately on Monday, Israel’s foreign ministry said it had asked China
to exert influence on Iran to prevent it from obtaining nuclear weapons. “I
spoke with the Chinese Foreign Minister, Qin Gang, about the danger we see in
the Iranian nuclear programme, a danger that is shared by many countries in the
region, including countries that have diplomatic relations with Iran,” said
Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen in a statement. At the same time, China
pushed for a negotiated settlement of the Palestinian Israeli conflict.
Israel remembers 6 million Jews killed in
Holocaust
JERUSALEM (AP)/Tue, April 18, 2023
Israelis ground to a halt for a nationwide moment of silence on Tuesday in
remembrance of the 6 million Jewish victims of the Holocaust as a two-minute
siren wailed across the country. Vehicles and pedestrians halted on streets and
highways as Israelis stood, heads bowed, in solemn remembrance for those
systematically killed by Nazi Germany and its collaborators in World War II. The
somber day is also marked by ceremonies and memorials at schools and community
centers. Restaurants and cafes shutter, and TV and radio stations play
Holocaust-themed programs. A third of the world’s Jews were murdered in the
Holocaust. Israel was established in the aftermath in 1948, and hundreds of
thousands of survivors fled to the Jewish state. Official observances started
Monday evening with a ceremony at the Yad Vashem Holocaust memorial in Jerusalem
as six survivors, including one of the few remaining survivors of the Warsaw
Ghetto Uprising, lit torches for the memory of the 6 million killed. Israel's
figurehead president called for national unity after months of protests against
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's planned judicial overhaul that has divided
the country.
Qatar and UAE in process of restoring
diplomatic ties
Reuters/April 18, 2023
A UAE official confirmed that the reopening of embassies is ‘under process’
DOHA/DUBAI: Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are restoring diplomatic
ties and reopening embassies, officials said on Tuesday. The step comes more
than two years after Arab states ended a boycott of Doha. “At present, the
activation of diplomatic ties, which will include the reopening of embassies, is
under process between both countries,” a UAE official said in a statement in
response to a question from Reuters. Qatar’s international media office, in a
statement, confirmed that “work is underway to reopen the respective embassies
as soon as possible.” “Regarding the opening of embassies between the two
countries, I think it will be in the coming weeks,” Qatari foreign ministry
spokesperson Majid Al-Ansari told a briefing. A Gulf official said embassies
were expected to reopen with new ambassadors in their posts by mid-June. A
fourth source said diplomatic relations would be fully restored within weeks.
The restoration of ties comes amid a broader regional push for reconciliation
with Iran and Saudi Arabia agreeing last month to re-establish relations after
years of hostility, which threatened instability in the Gulf and stoked the war
in Yemen. Several Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia and Egypt, have moved
to end a decade-long isolation of Syria, which had been boycotted over its
crackdown on protests in 2011 — violence that led to a protracted civil war. In
Yemen, the Houthi movement and Saudi Arabia held a round of peace talks this
week, exchanging hundreds of detainees, a significant peace-building move in the
conflict. Further peace talks are expected soon. In mid-2017, Saudi Arabia, the
UAE, Bahrain and Egypt severed all ties with Qatar over accusations it supported
terrorism, a reference to Islamist groups, and was cosying up to Iran,
accusations Doha denied. Riyadh and Cairo were the first to reappoint
ambassadors to Doha in 2021 after a Saudi-led deal to end the dispute, while
Bahrain last week announced it would restore diplomatic ties.
Saudi foreign minister in Syria for talks with
President Assad
Arab News/April 18, 2023
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister arrived in Damascus on Tuesday for talks
with President Bashar Assad amid growing moves toward the readmission of Syria
to the Arab community. The visit by Prince Faisal bin Farhan was the first by a
senior Saudi diplomat since relations were severed at the start of the Syrian
civil war in 2011. The foreign minister and the president discussed steps to
“achieve a comprehensive political settlement that ... contributes to Syria’s
return to the Arab fold,” the Saudi Foreign Ministry said. Prince Faisal told
the Syrian president it was important to provide a suitable environment for aid
to reach all regions in Syria, and create the conditions for the return of
Syrian refugees and displaced persons. Ending their suffering and enabling them
to return safely to their homeland would contribute to stability, the minister
said. The Syrian president said: “Sound relations between Syria and the Kingdom
of Saudi Arabia should be the norm. Such ties not only benefit the two
countries, but also the Arab world and the region.”The foreign minister’s visit
to Damascus follows a trip to Jeddah last week by Syria’s Foreign Minister
Faisal Mekdad for discussions with Prince Faisal on his country’s unity,
security, stability, and territorial integrity. The two ministers pledged to
seek a political solution to the Syrian crisis, and welcomed the start of
procedures for resuming consular services and flights between the two countries.
The same week, foreign ministers from the Gulf, Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan held a
consultative meeting in Jeddah to discuss efforts to reach a political solution
to the Syrian crisis that preserved the country’s unity, security, and
stability. The ministers said “a political solution is the only solution to the
Syrian crisis,” and called for unified Arab leadership on the issue. The next
day, the Saudi Foreign Ministry said the ministers sought a political solution
including an Arab leadership role, developing the necessary mechanisms for this
role, and intensifying consultation between Arab countries to ensure the success
of these efforts.
Iran’s president threatens 'harsh response to
Israeli aggression'
Hadya Al Alawi/The National/April 18/2023
Ebrahim Raisi says action against his country will prompt a 'harsh response from
the armed forces, which will accompany the destruction of Haifa and Tel Aviv'
Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi has threatened to flatten the cities of Haifa and
Tel Aviv while marking his country’s annual Army Day. Speaking at the ceremony,
which celebrates Iran’s regular military, not its paramilitary Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps, whose forces operate in different countries in the
Middle East, Mr Raisi said that “Enemies, particularly the Zionist regime, have
received the message that any tiny action against (our) country will prompt a
harsh answer from the armed forces, which will accompany the destruction of
Haifa and Tel Aviv”. The comments came a day after Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu vowed that his country would continue its “fight” to prevent
Tehran from developing nuclear weapons, during a Holocaust commemoration
ceremony on Monday. “We are fighting resolutely against any nuclear deal with
Iran that will pave its way to nuclear arms,” Mr Netanyahu said in a speech on
the eve of Holocaust Remembrance Day. Attending the ceremony was former Iranian
crown prince Reza Pahlavi, whose father Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi was
overthrown in the 1979 Iranian Revolution. This comes at the backdrop of
escalating tension between Iran and Israel. An Israeli air strike killed two
Iran-linked fighters in Syria two weeks ago. Local media reported a few days
later that Israel’s IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said his country is ready to
attack Iran and can do so even without support from the United States. On-off
talks between Tehran and world powers to revive a 2015 landmark deal that sought
to curb Iran's nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief have stalled
since last year. The 2015 deal with Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and
the US collapsed after Washington unilaterally withdrew from it in 2018 under
then-president Donald Trump. In February, the UN nuclear watchdog said it had
detected particles of uranium enriched to 83.7 per cent in Iran, under the 90
per cent needed to produce an atomic bomb. Iran denies wanting to acquire atomic
weapons and said it made no attempt to enrich uranium beyond 60-per cent purity.
Tehran Speaks about Reopening Embassy
in Riyadh on May 9
London – Tehran – Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 18
April, 2023
Iran hopes to reopen its diplomatic missions in Saudi Arabia by May 9, according
to senior foreign ministry officials. The reopening of diplomatic missions is
based on a March agreement for restoring ties between Riyadh and Tehran
sponsored by Beijing. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Nasser Kanaani
announced during his weekly press conference that “the Beijing Agreement between
the two foreign ministries is progressing well and at an acceptable pace.”The
spokesman also expressed hope that Iran and Saudi Arabia would reopen their
respective diplomatic missions by May 9, as scheduled in the China-brokered
agreement. “According to the agreement, it was scheduled that the two sides
would reopen their embassies and consulates within two months from the first
meeting, by May 9,” said Kanaani, according to state news agency IRNA.
“Political relations between the two countries have been established directly,
and we can say that they have been activated,” added Kanaani. “We do not have
any unclear issues or obstacles in this direction, especially since the Hajj
season is ahead of us,” he also stated. Alireza Enayati, director for Persian
Gulf affairs at the Iranian Foreign Ministry, confirmed to IRNA that Tehran and
Riyadh are set to reopen embassies. Enayati said a Saudi technical delegation
visited Iran last week and inspected their country's embassy in Tehran before
heading to Mashhad to inspect the Saudi consulate there. Their visit came after
two delegations from Iran visited Saudi Arabia. The Iranian diplomat said that
another Saudi delegation is scheduled to visit Tehran in the coming days to take
the process of reopening diplomatic missions forward. The Iranian delegation
that visited Riyadh recently, he said, met with the Saudi deputy foreign
minister, describing their meeting as "good and constructive." Enayati said the
two countries are looking to open the embassies and consulates before the Hajj
pilgrimage starts to help facilitate the affairs of Iranian pilgrims. He also
informed about another meeting between Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian
and his Saudi counterpart Prince Faisal bin Farhan in the coming days, saying
the meeting is on the agenda before the diplomatic missions are reopened.
Iran Renews Threats against Israel during Army Day Parade
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 18 April, 2023
Iran's president on Tuesday reiterated threats against Israel while marking the
country's annual Army Day. The comments by Ebrahim Raisi came as fighter jets
and helicopters flew overhead in Tehran, and as Iranian submarines sailed across
its waters during a ceremony carried live by state television, The Associated
Press said. The day celebrates Iran's regular military, not its paramilitary
Revolutionary Guard, whose expeditionary forces operate across the wider Mideast
and aid Iranian-allied groups like Lebanon's Hezbollah. The Guard also routinely
has tense encounters with the US Navy. Speaking at the ceremony, Raisi
threatened Israel, which is suspected of carrying out a series of attacks
targeting Iran since the collapse of its nuclear deal with world powers.
“Enemies, particularly the Zionist regime, have received the message that any
tiny action against (our) country will prompt a harsh answer from the armed
forces, which will accompany the destruction of Haifa and Tel Aviv," Raisi said.
“The hand of our armed forces warmly shakes the hand of the regional nations
that intend to create security in the region,” the president said.
Son of Iran’s Shah Pahlavi Visits Israel
London, Tel Aviv – Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 18 April, 2023
Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran's former Shah, arrived in Tel Aviv on Sunday for a
visit that highlights the once-warm relationship between his father and Israel,
despite the current hostility between the two countries. Iranian Foreign
Ministry Spokesperson Nasser Kanaani downplayed the visit's significance and
declined to comment on it. The Israeli government declared hours before the
arrival of Pahlavi, the former Crown Prince of Iran, that he is “the most senior
personality” ever to publicly visit Israel. Pahlavi, 62, stated that he would
deliver “a message of friendship from the Iranian people.”Israel and Iran
enjoyed warmer relations during the era of the Shah, who was backed by the US.
However, after the Shah was overthrown in the 1979 revolution, the countries
became hostile toward each other. Israel stated that the purpose of Pahlavi’s
visit is to create “a bridge between Israel and the Iranian people, and to
express opposition to the Ayatollah regime.” “A democratic Iran will seek to
renew its ties with Israel and our Arab neighbors,” Pahlavi was quoted as saying
in an Israeli statement. “In my opinion, that day is closer than ever.” “I want
the people of Israel to know that the Islamic Republic does not represent the
Iranian people,” Pahlavi said in a Twitter post before his visit. “The ancient
bond between our people can be rekindled for the benefit of both nations. I’m
going to Israel to play my role in building toward that brighter future.”Pahlavi
also said he plans to engage Israeli water experts on ways to address the
mismanagement of Iran’s natural resources. Israeli Intelligence Minister Gila
Gamliel confirmed that Pahlavi will visit a desalination plant to learn about
Israel’s advanced water technologies. Pahlavi is scheduled to participate in
Israel’s official ceremonies commemorating the Holocaust during his visit. He
will also meet with representatives of Israelis of Iranian origin, as well as
representatives of the Baha'i community.
Sudan's Warring Generals Agree 24-hour Ceasefire after US Pressure
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 18 April, 2023
Sudan's rival commanders agreed a 24-hour ceasefire from Tuesday evening, the
army said, following calls to each side from US Secretary of State Antony
Blinken over fierce fighting in Khartoum that saw shots fired at a US diplomatic
convoy.
The ceasefire will start at 6.00 p.m. (1600 GMT) and will not extend beyond the
agreed 24 hours, Army General Shams El Din Kabbashi, a member of Sudan's ruling
military council, said on Al Arabiya TV. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken
held separate calls with the army chief and the head of the paramilitary Rapid
Support Forces (RSF), whose power struggle has killed at least 185 people across
the country and derailed an internationally-backed plan to shift to civilian
rule after decades of autocracy and military control. RSF leader General Mohamed
Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, whose whereabouts have not been disclosed since
fighting began, said the RSF approved the 24-hour ceasefire to ensure the safe
passage of civilians and the evacuation of the wounded. In a post on Twitter,
Hemedti said he had "discussed pressing issues" with Blinken during their call
and more talks were planned. The RSF also issued a statement saying it was
waging a continuing battle to restore "the rights of our people" in what it
called a new revolution. Blinken said initial reports suggested the attack on
the US envoy was undertaken by forces associated with the RSF, calling the
action "reckless". He said all US personnel were safe after the incident,
calling threats to U.S. diplomats "totally unacceptable."Underscoring the risk a
prolonged conflict presents to regional stability, Kabbashi said two neighboring
countries were attempting to provide aid to the RSF. He did not identify the
countries.
Early on Tuesday, gunfire echoed across Sudan's capital accompanied by the sound
of warplanes and explosions, a Reuters reporter said. Residents in Khartoum's
neighboring cities of Omdurman and Bahri also reported air strikes that shook
buildings and anti-aircraft fire. The fighting has raged in several regions of
the country since Saturday. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red
Crescent Societies said it was nearly impossible to provide humanitarian
services around the capital. It warned the country's health system was at risk
of collapse.
Egypt reverses plan to give rockets to Russia,
leaked documents suggest
Nick Allen/The Telegraph/April 18, 2023
Egypt reversed a plan to give rockets to Russia after talks with top US
officials and instead offered to make artillery shells for Ukraine, according to
leaked documents. The documents reported by the Washington Post gave further
detail about Egypt's role, which was detailed in earlier leaks last week.
According to the classified documents that emerged last week, Cairo planned to
produce up to 40,000 rockets for Moscow, and told its officials to keep the deal
secret “to avoid problems with the West”. The new documents suggested that Abdel
Fatah El-Sisi, the Egyptian president, ditched the idea in early March. Instead,
Cairo decided to sell 155mm artillery shells, which were in short supply in the
US, to Washington, which would then send them to Ukraine. It reportedly put a
stop to the alleged Moscow plan following visits to Cairo by senior US state
department officials, and Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, in late February and
early March. An intelligence assessment on March 9, the day after the defence
secretary was in Cairo, showed Egypt had approved selling 155mm artillery shells
to the US, the Washington Post reported. Most damaging leak of US intelligence
in a decade
The documents were among classified US intelligence files leaked on Discord, an
app popular among gamers. Jack Teixeira, a 21-year-old national guardsman, has
been charged with leaking secrets. He faces two counts under the Espionage Act
following the most damaging leak of US intelligence in a decade. Egypt is the
largest beneficiary of American military aid globally after Israel. It has
received over $1 billion of security assistance annually for decades. Egypt has
previously said that the suggestion it was planning to sell rockets to Mocow had
"no basis in truth".
Meanwhile, other documents emerged giving further detail about last week's
revelation that the US listened in on the conversations of United Nations
Secretary General António Guterres. They suggested the UN chief had been "really
p----d off" following a meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky on March 8, the
Washington Post reported. He was said to have been unhappy about there being a
surprise ceremony involving medals being given to soldiers. The leaked document
said Mr Guterres "made a point of not smiling the entire time” at the ceremony,
the newspaper reported.
Macron 'working on secret plan' with China to end Ukraine war
Henry Samuel/The Telegraph/April 18, 2023
Emmanuel Macron is seeking to draw up plans with China that could lead to talks
between Russia and Ukraine “by this summer", according to reports citing people
familiar with the initiative. Mr Macron has reportedly missioned his foreign
policy adviser Emmanuel Bonne to work with China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, to
establish a framework that could be used as a basis for future negotiations. The
French strategy sees talks between Russia and Ukraine happening as soon as this
summer if all goes well, the anonymous sources were cited as telling Bloomberg.
Any future negotiations would be dependent on several conditions, including a
successful Ukrainian spring offensive that would put Kyiv in a position of
strength during any talks, according to the people. Bloomberg said that an
official from Mr Macron’s office had confirmed the plan for Mr Bonne to speak to
Mr Wang. He declined to comment on the details, adding that France’s allies have
been informed of any French initiative. It said China’s Foreign Ministry
responded that it was unaware of the source of the information and that it was
“difficult to verify the authenticity.” The Elysée did not respond to the
Telegraph’s requests for details of the reported initiative. It remains unclear
if Mr Macron has support for his plan from Kyiv. Macron and Zelensky in 'peace
summit' discussions
However, on Saturday, Mr Macron's office said in a statement he had "discussed
the next steps in the organisation of a peace summit" with Volodymyr Zelensky.
The Ukrainian president confirmed that he had spent an hour and a half on the
phone to Mr Macron in which they discussed “the results of President’s recent
visit to China” without providing details. Without confirming the specifics of
the report, sources told the Telegraph: "Mr Macron said publicly during his
China trip that he wanted to get China to commit to playing a constructive role.
Naturally, diplomatic discussions took place and there is a follow-up."
The Kremlin said on Tuesday that it had not seen any plans for a peace deal
presented by France but that Brazil's efforts to mediate in the conflict in
Ukraine "deserved attention". Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva drew
criticism from the United States on Monday for his recent comments suggesting
the West had been "encouraging" war by arming Ukraine. Mr Macron has previously
said that he sees a major role for China and that thanks to its relationship
with Russia it could “bring Moscow back to reason.” However, Beijing so far has
shown no signs that it’s willing to pressure Moscow to withdraw troops. In
China, the French president failed to convince Xi Jinping to talk to Mr Zelensky
— the pair have not spoken since the war broke out more than a year ago. During
his China trip, Mr Macron also managed to put allies noses out of joint by
saying that Europe must not be a “follower” of the US agenda over Taiwan.
In an apparent nod to this, Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission chief,
on Tuesday urged the bloc's leaders to show unity in the face of China. "A
strong European China policy relies on strong coordination between member states
and EU institutions and on the willingness to avoid divide and conquer tactics,"
Ms von der Leyen, who accompanied Mr Macron to Beijing, told MEPs. "We have
already in the recent days and weeks seen those tactics in action and it is now
time for Europe to move to action too. Now is the time to demonstrate our
collective will," she said, in an address to the European Parliament. "Having
this clear-eyed assessment of the Chinese Communist Party's actions and
direction of travel – actually, including its relations with Putin's Russia and
its attitude towards the war in Ukraine – is a prerequisite for today's
discussion," she added. In Brussels, a growing chorus of critics complain that
Mr Macron is more interested in pushing his personal agenda than supporting
allies, such as Ukraine. In this case, insiders believe Mr Macron is hoping to
position himself as an international power player that helps bring the Russian
invasion to an end in order to create a lasting legacy. He was roundly
criticised for attempting to persuade Western allies to spare Russia from
“humiliation” in a previous attempt to end the war. Many Ukraine allies have
dismissed cease-fire proposals that would allow Russia to keep territorial gains
and have warned Vladimir Putin would only exploit peace talks to prepare a fresh
offensive. Most remain sceptical that China can serve as a neutral intermediary
given its “no-limits friendship” with Russia. The countries have repeatedly
pledged to strengthen ties, including a call on Monday to boost cooperation
between their militaries.
Top diplomats back 'Peace Formula'
Top diplomats from the Group of Seven nations — including France — this week
backed Mr Zelensky’s “Peace Formula,” which includes the complete withdrawal of
all Russian troops from Ukrainian territory. Mr Macron is keen to discuss future
security guarantees for Ukraine with various international partners, including
China, according to reports. Nato leaders will launch similar talks when they
meet for the military alliance’s annual summit in Vilnius, Lithuania in July.
The Telegraph understands internal talks are currently focusing on bringing
Kyiv’s armed forces up to a Nato-standard, in both the short and long term. This
is one method Western officials believe is crucial for warding off future
Russian aggression once the current war has drawn to a close. France is
currently holding up an EU scheme to jointly procure up to one million 155mm
artillery shells to help supply Ukraine’s much-anticipated counter-offensive.
Paris has also pushed for a narrow definition of “European defence industry” in
legal texts in order to prevent finance put up by the European Commission being
spent benefiting firms in the UK and US. Russia hawks, such as Poland, and the
Baltic states, have urged the French to focus on supporting Ukraine before
prioritising bolstering arms manufacturers in the EU. “If you look at the
narrative from the French president on strategic autonomy, this is another
example of how the French look at these things,” a diplomat told the Telegraph.
“It’s clear… they prioritise the goal of bolstering the European defence
industry over helping Ukraine,” the source added on the artillery shell scheme.
Putin met with a sanctioned Xi Jinping aide, a middle finger to the US that
could help Russia's invasion of Ukraine
Tom Porter/Business Insider/Tue, April 18, 2023
A Chinese defense official sanctioned by the US visited Moscow Sunday.
The visit by Gen. Li Shangfu suggests Beijing continues to back Russia amid the
Ukraine war.
China claims to be neutral, but fears are growing that Beijing will back Russia
with lethal aid.
At a meeting in Moscow over the weekend, China signalled its unyielding support
for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his brutal invasion of Ukraine.
Defense minister Gen. Li Shangfu met with Putin and Russian Defense Minister
Sergei Shoigu Sunday during a three-day trip to the Kremlin, Russian state media
agency TASS reported. Putin said the meeting cemented new military cooperation
between the countries — ominous words that will likely be met with anxiety in
Kyiv amid US warnings that China is considering providing lethal aid to Russia.
The decision to host Li itself appears to be a middle finger to the US, which in
2018 sanctioned the Chinese official over dealings he had with Rosoboronexport,
the Russian state-owned arms exporter.
An alliance to win the Ukraine war
China's intervention could help tip the balance in the conflict, where both
sides in recent months have made little progress. Putin said that the two world
powers were "regularly exchange useful information, cooperate in the field of
military-technical cooperation, conduct joint exercises," according to the AFP.
"This is, undoubtedly, another important area that strengthens the exclusively
trusting, strategic nature of our relations," he added. Li added that ties
between the nations were stronger than they were during the Cold War. "They are
very stable," Li said after the meeting, according to the AFP.
China last week reiterated that it would not be providing military aide to
either side in the war, and Li on Sunday made no mention of China stepping over
the red line and providing lethal weapons. But leaked Pentagon documents last
week claimed that China had already agreed to provide lethal aid to Russia, as
long as it was able to do so secretly, according to The Washington Post. A
Ukrainian official told Reuters on Friday said that Chinese components had been
found in Russian weapons and in Ukraine. Sunday's meeting will do little to
allay concerns that China could be poised to intensify its support for the
Kremlin.
Denting America's grip on the world
China has been Russia's most important international partner in the wake of its
invasion of Ukraine, providing sweeping diplomatic and economic support to the
Kremlin. It has claimed to be neutral in the conflict, even proposing a 12-point
peace plan. But it has refused to criticize Russian aggression and made no
efforts to broker discussions with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Analysts believe that China's President Xi Jinping sees the Ukraine war as an
opportunity to dent the global power of the US, China's chief geopolitical rival
and Ukraine's most important ally in resisting Russian aggression. "The visit of
China's defense minister with Vladimir Putin in Moscow is just the latest moment
in a flurry of Russia-China coordination to jointly confront the democracies in
Europe and Asia in their attempt to dismantle the rules-based order," Jonathan
Ward, founder of the Atlas Organization, told Insider. In recent weeks European
leaders have visited China in the apparent hope that they can persuade Xi to use
his leverage to get Putin to back down in Ukraine. But Ward told Insider that
Li's visit signalled that China would remain adamant in its support of Russia.
"A meeting of this kind is likely to be an assessment of their geopolitical
coordination in Europe and Asia as well as the present and future direction of
military cooperation," he said. "Li has been clear on this visit in his
declaration of the importance of Russia-China strategic cooperation, and this
should dispel any further illusions about the nature of the Russia-China axis in
the capitals of Europe and Asia, or in the boardrooms of Western companies that
continue to do business in either China or Russia." The meeting between Li and
Putin comes weeks after Putin hosted China's President Xi Jinping in Moscow,
where the two renewed their "no limits" cooperation pact. Shortly after, China's
top diplomat Wang Yi made the trip to Moscow. Not everyone is convinced this is
Xi's ultimate plan. Some believe that China may step back from providing Russia
with military aid, as doing so would risk cutting it off from access to the
advanced economies in the West it needs to fuel its growth. What is clear,
however, is that Xi's next move could determine the fate of Russia and its war
with Ukraine.
Romania next in east Europe to look at Ukraine grain import
ban
BUCHAREST/WARSAW (Reuters)/Tue, April 18, 2023
Romania looked set on Tuesday to follow three other countries in banning
Ukrainian grain imports, a setback for Kyiv as it tries to unblock exports
through eastern Europe and salvage a wartime deal on shipping grain from the
Black Sea. Failure to resume exports into eastern European countries or secure
an extension of the Black Sea grain deal would trap large amounts of grain in
Ukraine, hitting its exports and causing further economic problems for Kyiv as
it battles Russian troops. Talks between Kyiv and Warsaw went into a second day
after European Union member states Poland, Hungary and Slovakia imposed import
bans to protect their markets from an influx of cheaper supply following the
Russian invasion of Ukraine. But Romania's ruling Social Democratic Party
increased pressure on Kyiv by saying it would ask the coalition government to
approve an emergency decree enforcing a temporary ban on Ukrainian grain imports
though it wants transit to continue. "PSD will ask the governing coalition to
make a political decision to enable ... the government to issue the decree,"
said the party, which includes the agriculture minister in its ranks. Ukraine's
agriculture minister is due to hold talks on Wednesday with Romania, whose Black
Sea port of Constanta has processed some 12 millions of tonnes of Ukrainian
grain since the war started. Large quantities of Ukrainian grain have been
trapped by bottlenecks in eastern and central Europe as low global prices and
demand mean grain cannot easily be sold on. The bottlenecks have reduced prices
and hurt sales by local farmers, putting political pressure on governments in
the region. Poland, whose ruling nationalist Law and Justice party faces an
election this year and counts on rural areas for support, has gone further than
others by stopping Ukrainian grain and food in transit, as well as banning
imports. Polish Agriculture Minister Robert Telus said Warsaw was seeking a
solution allowing transit through Europe. "We are talking with the EU as well as
with Ukraine to find solutions. We want these products to go to Europe, but go
deep into Europe," he said before the second day of talks in Warsaw.
'SHUTDOWN' RISK
The EU has criticised Poland, Hungary and Slovakia for putting individual bans
in place, and EU envoys are set to discuss the measures on Wednesday, a senior
EU official said. Bulgaria has also been considering a ban. The Czech Republic
has said it will not impose a ban on its own but wants an EU solution.
A Ukrainian delegation led by Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov was also
holding talks in Turkey on Tuesday on the status of the Black Sea Grain
Initiative, which is set to expire on May 18. The initiative, brokered by Turkey
and the United Nations last July, was designed to alleviate global food
shortages by allowing exports to resume from three ports that had been blockaded
in Ukraine, which gets a large slice of its gross domestic product from grain
and food sales. It is unclear whether it will be extended because Russia says a
separate deal meant to ease its own agricultural and fertilizer exports has not
been upheld. Kyiv said on Monday the Black Sea grain corridor was threatened by
"shutdown" because Russia was blocking inspections of cargo ships.Russian news
agency RIA said on Tuesday the inspections had restarted but a senior Ukrainian
official told Reuters: "Nothing has been resolved."
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Russia to resume its cooperation,
saying in Tokyo that it was "breaking its promises to countries around the world
that are dependent on grain that has not been able to get out of Ukraine over
the last few days." (Reporting by Pawel Florkiewicz and Anna Koper in Warsaw,
Luiza Ilie in Bucharest, Krisztina Than in Budapest, Pavel Polityuk in Kyiv and
Humeyra Pamuk in Tokyo, Writing by Jason Hovet and Timothy Heritage, Editing by
Jason Neely and Sharon Singleton)
China offers to facilitate Israel-Palestinian peace talks
BEIJING (AP)/Tue, April 18, 2023
China's foreign minister told his Israeli and Palestinian counterparts that his
country is ready to help facilitate peace talks between the two sides, in its
latest effort at mediation in the region. In separate phone calls to the two
officials on Monday, Qin Gang expressed China's concern over intensifying
tensions between Israel and Palestinians and its support for a resumption of
peace talks, the Foreign Ministry said in statements issued late Monday. Last
month, Saudi Arabia and Iran reached a deal in China to restore diplomatic ties
that were cut off in 2016. It was a dramatic moment of diplomacy for China that
Beijing touted as evidence of its ability to be a diplomatic player in the
Middle East. Qin stressed in his talks with Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen
that Saudi Arabia and Iran have set a good example of overcoming differences
through dialogue, a statement about that phone call said. He told Cohen that
Beijing encourages Israel and the Palestinians to show political courage and
take steps to resume peace talks. “China is willing to provide convenience for
this,” he was quoted as saying. Israel and the Palestinians have not held
substantive peace talks on ending the century-long conflict in over a decade.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government is committed to expanding
settlements in the occupied West Bank — which most of the international
community considers illegal and an obstacle to peace — and several of his key
allies are staunchly opposed to the creation of an independent Palestinian
state. Cohen expressed his country's commitment to reducing tensions, but said
the problem appeared to be difficult to resolve in the short term, the Chinese
Foreign Ministry statement said. Israel's Foreign Ministry said in a statement
that Qin and Cohen discussed “the importance of maintaining quiet at the Temple
Mount, particularly in the final days of Ramadan,” the Muslim holy month, but
made no mention of peace talks with the Palestinians. It said that Cohen
conveyed “the threat that we see in Iran’s nuclear program” and called on China
to help prevent Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Qin also told Palestinian
Foreign Affairs Minister Riyad al-Maliki that China is willing to play an active
role in the resumption of talks, a second statement said. On Tuesday, Chinese
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin confirmed Qin's outreach to the two
officials. “It is never too late to do the right thing,” he said. This month,
violence in Israel and the West Bank has increased, touched off by an Israeli
police raid on Jerusalem’s most sensitive holy site, the compound home to the
Al-Aqsa mosque. The Israeli military struck sites linked to the Palestinian
group Hamas in southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip after militants in the two
territories fired rocket salvos at Israel. The mosque sits on a contested
hilltop revered as the third-holiest site in Islam and the holiest site in
Judaism.
U.S.'s Blinken says Beijing needs to make its intentions
clear
KARUIZAWA, Japan (Reuters)/Tue, April 18, 2023
The United States is able to move forward with its relationship with China
following President Joe Biden's meeting with leader Xi Jinping last year, but
that requires Beijing to make clear its own intentions, Washington's top
diplomat said on Tuesday. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made the
comment at a news conference at the conclusion of the Group of Seven (G7)
meeting of rich democracies in Japan's town of Karuizawa. Biden met Xi in
Indonesia in November for a three-hour meeting aimed at preventing strained ties
between the two nations from spilling into a new Cold War. China's foreign
ministry urged the U.S. to stop claiming to put "guardrails" on both countries'
relations. "The United States has formulated and implemented incorrect policies
towards China based on its incorrect understanding of China," ministry
spokesperson Wang Wenbin told a regular briefing, blaming this for the current
tense state of ties.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on April 18-19/2023
Why Don't Americans Trust the Biden Administration on Iran?
Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/April 18, 2023
An overwhelming majority of American people reportedly do not trust President
Joe Biden on Iran's nuclear deal.
"The Biden administration remains obsessed with reentering a nuclear deal with
the Iranian regime." — Senator Ted Cruz, The Washington Free Beacon, February 3,
2023.
"[I]n a timely question in the McLaughlin & Associates survey, 63% of Americans
believe that providing Iran a path to building the weapons is a bigger threat to
the United States than Russia's invasion of Ukraine (at 21%)." — Washington
Examiner, March 4, 2022.
One reason behind this mistrust is likely related to the notion that the Biden
Administration has been caught so often misleading the Congress and the American
public.
"We are deeply concerned about multiple provisions that reportedly may be
contained in the final language of any agreement with the world's leading state
sponsor of terrorism." — US House Representatives, mostly Democrats, to the
Biden Administration, September 1, 2022.
The major problem is that any nuclear deal would most likely include the
previous sunset clauses, which set a firm expiration date for restricting Iran's
nuclear program, after which the country's leaders would be free to spin
centrifuges and enrich uranium at any level they wished.
Finally, with all the inconsistencies, lies and concessions, it is no wonder why
majority of Americans do not trust Biden on Iran. The US Congress and the
American public have the right to be informed about this regime that has been
killing Americans and taking hostages for almost four decades, not to mention
how brutally it treats its own people, or uses its proxies in the Middle East to
try to obliterate its perceived enemies. Is the Biden Administration actually
about to let a regime such as this acquire nuclear weapons?
The US Congress and the American public have the right to be informed about the
Iranian regime, which has been killing Americans and taking hostages for almost
four decades, not to mention how brutally it treats its own people, or uses its
proxies in the Middle East to try to obliterate its perceived enemies. Is the
Biden Administration actually about to let a regime such as this acquire nuclear
weapons? (Image source: iStock)
An overwhelming majority of American people reportedly do not trust President
Joe Biden on Iran's nuclear deal. After the Biden administration recently issued
sanctions waivers allowing Iran and Russia to build nuclear infrastructure,
Senator Ted Cruz pointed out, correctly, that "the Biden administration remains
obsessed with reentering a nuclear deal with the Iranian regime."
According to the Washington Examiner:
"America does not trust President Joe Biden's effort to negotiate a secret new
Iran nuclear deal, fears it more than Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and would
support a military strike on the enemy nation's facilities, according to an
expansive new survey provided to Secrets.
"On the issue of having confidence in Biden's talks, including with Russian
President Vladimir Putin, 52% said they don't "trust" the administration to cut
a deal that will prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Just 32% do.
"And in a timely question in the McLaughlin & Associates survey, 63% believe
that providing Iran a path to building the weapons is a bigger threat to the
United States than Russia's invasion of Ukraine (at 21%)."
One reason behind this mistrust is likely related to the notion that the Biden
Administration has been caught so often misleading the Congress and the American
public (such as here, here, here, here and here ). For example, a few days after
Biden claimed that the nuclear deal was dead, Robert Malley, the U.S. special
envoy to Iran, on December 22, revealed in interview with RFE/RL's Radio Farda
that the nuclear deal is in fact not dead. The Telegraph reported on February
22, 2023:
"Joe Biden's diplomats are pressing the UK Government not to formally declare
Iran's Revolutionary Guard a terrorist group, despite the Home Office backing
the move...
"The US State Department has argued that the UK can play a key role as
interlocutors with Tehran which would be undercut by the designation, according
to Whitehall insiders."
One may wonder whether the administration is attempting to keep the Congress and
the public in the dark, so that they let their guard down about the revival of
the nuclear deal with Iran and about what kinds of concessions are being granted
to the ruling mullahs?
The second issue is more likely linked to a Biden Administration concession,
reportedly allowing non-US persons to do business with Iran's Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has been designated as a terrorist
organization by the US Department of State. According to a leaked draft
agreement:
"Non-U.S. persons doing business with Iranian persons that are not on the [U.S.
sanctions list] will not be exposed to sanctions merely as a result of those
Iranian persons engaging in separate transactions involving Iranian persons on
the [U.S. sanctions list] (including Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC),
its officials, or its subsidiaries or affiliates)."
That is apparently why a group of 50 US House Representatives, mostly Democrats,
had earlier urged the Biden administration to release the text of any new
nuclear deal:
"We are writing to respectfully request that your Administration provide
Congress with the full text of any proposal to rejoin the Iran nuclear
agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), including
any side agreements, and consult with Congress prior to reentering that
agreement. We are deeply concerned about multiple provisions that reportedly may
be contained in the final language of any agreement with the world's leading
state sponsor of terrorism."
The major problem is that any nuclear deal would most likely include the
previous sunset clauses, which set a firm expiration date for restricting Iran's
nuclear program, after which the country's leaders would be free to spin
centrifuges and enrich uranium at any level they wished. Any potential new deal
would most likely make Iran's military sites exempt from inspection by the
International Atomic Energy Agency. Resurrecting the nuclear deal would also
assist the Iranian regime in rejoining the global financial system and gaining
more legitimacy – as well as billions of dollars flowing into the treasury of
the regime and its militia groups. As Middle East Scholar Lee Smith noted: "The
Biden administration's determination to reenter the Iran deal is a macabre scam
virtually handing off a bomb to a terror state. "
Finally, with all the inconsistencies, lies and concessions, it is no wonder why
majority of Americans do not trust Biden on Iran. The US Congress and the
American public have the right to be informed about this regime that has been
killing Americans and taking hostages for almost four decades, not to mention
how brutally it treats its own people, or uses its proxies in the Middle East to
try to obliterate its perceived enemies. Is the Biden Administration actually
about to let a regime such as this acquire nuclear weapons?
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated
scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and
president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has
authored several books on Islam and US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at
Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2023 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Breaking Down Arab Issues
Samir Atallah/Asharq Al-Awsat/April, 18/2023
The current workshop aimed at resolving Arab issues is moving at an
unprecedented pace. This speed may suggest that we are facing easy matters and
roads without barriers and obstacles. But the truth is that we are confronting
severe obstacles and a determined will. The method clearly reflects the
character of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who considers stalling a waste of
time, and time drain is the greatest loss. There is no easy issue on the table,
whether it’s related to the return of Syria to its “Arab surrounding” and not
only to the Arab League, the Lebanese crisis, the return of the displaced,
Syria’s reconstruction, or the reorganization of the Arab-Iranian atmosphere or
any other bilateral or collective environment. However, the energy that Crown
Prince Mohammad used as a measure for break down accumulated crises, predicts
that the Arabs will reach the Riyadh summit next month, while they have agreed
on a solution to most of the urgent and very dangerous matters. It is true that
there are differences in viewpoints and positions, but the general principles
are indisputable.
To get a clearer idea of what is going on, it is better to read the Jeddah
statement carefully. There are no repetitive general expressions, nor the usual
courtesies, but rather a project and detailed commitments that are commensurate
with the challenges that have been tearing the region apart for years.
One dynamic moved diplomacies in geopolitics throughout China, Russia, Ankara,
Muscat, Cairo, Damascus and Tehran, and occupied Washington, Paris and London.
Never before has the Middle East workshop been so extensive and so serious. The
Riyadh summit will be held while the Arab world witnesses an unprecedented scene
of reconciliation, the revival of normal ties, and the beginning of a true
partnership towards development, away from essays and embellished rhetoric that
add nothing to an overflowed archive of statements.
The Jeddah statement is a historical turning point in addressing issues and
informing people of what they should know. That is, allowing them to understand
what is being done in their name, and in what way, because seeing the causes of
disagreement is as beneficial as knowing the points of concord.
There is no time to waste. Within a short period of time, the embassies swapped
prisoners and exchanged initiatives. This is a new culture in Arab political
action, whether it is among the Arabs themselves or between them and the
international powers, the old and the new. In the past, Arab summits entrenched
differences and polemics. We will witness a summit that is held with the aim to
act and to succeed.
The US and NATO must team up in the Gulf
Bilal Y. Saab/Arab News/April 18, 2023
It is clear that the era of US hegemony in the Gulf, and the Middle East more
broadly, is over. What is less certain is what security system will replace it
and whether it will better serve regional security and US interests.
The Gulf is becoming a more crowded geopolitical space than ever, with external
powers such as China, Russia and India increasing their involvement in the
region to safeguard their economic interests, while local powers, most notably
Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, are rising and pursuing a more independent
foreign policy course. This shift away from US guardianship and toward greater
multilateralism is precisely what Washington has preached and sought for a
decade and a half. When US regional partners are able and willing to step up, as
several of them have in some areas, Washington feels more confident about
drawing down and paying closer attention to the Indo-Pacific and European
theaters.
Yet, as welcome as this structural transition in the Gulf is, the US should
still shape it to secure its long-term interests. Washington has two major
challenges in mind that could severely complicate this transition. The first is
Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The second is China and Russia’s growing influence in
the region.
With regard to the first challenge, the Gulf Arab states should be commended for
seeking to gradually reconcile with their main adversary, Iran. Riyadh and Abu
Dhabi’s latest rapprochement with Tehran, leading to the resumption of
diplomatic ties, contributes to regional calm and has the potential to be
transformative for the region. But enhanced political relations between Tehran
and its Gulf Arab neighbors does not, nor was it expected to, defuse the ticking
time bomb that is Iran’s nuclear program. As Tehran inches closer to obtaining a
nuclear weapon — the latest US assessment is that Iran could make the nuclear
material for a bomb in about 12 days, if it wanted to — the possibility of
Israel resorting to military force to arrest that process becomes higher.
An Israeli attack against Iran's nuclear infrastructure would undoubtedly lead
to regional war. Tensions between Iran and Israel are already high given the
latest cycle of violence between the two, which keeps escalating and expanding
in geographical scope. In this combustible Iran-Israel dynamic, there is very
little the Gulf states can do to pacify it. Concerning the second challenge,
greater Chinese and Russian influence in the Gulf gives these powers leverage in
their global competition with the US. Washington cannot forbid the Gulf states
from doing business with China and Russia, but it must try to prevent those
economic exchanges from spilling over into the defense and security realm.
So, how can Washington continue to promote a less US-dependent security order in
the Gulf while also addressing these two significant challenges? Helping
regional partners develop their self-defense capabilities, as US Central Command
has been busy doing, is critical, but it is not enough. This process is also
going to take years before it generates bigger outcomes. The Iranian challenge
is a lot more urgent.
A strategically sound and cost-effective approach would be for Washington to
involve its long-standing transatlantic allies in the mission of Gulf security.
Two of these allies — the UK and France — have shared values and interests with
the US, as well as a military presence in the Gulf.
The idea is to transition from a US-controlled hub-and-spoke security system in
the Gulf, which has been the format for decades, to a US-led alliance network
that leans heavily on the British, who have a permanent naval base in Bahrain,
and the French, who have military and intelligence facilities of their own in
the UAE. Burden-sharing is a desired goal that has been reiterated by successive
US administrations. But Washington has not truly internalized the concept and
embraced it as a real operating principle in its foreign and security policies,
at least in the region. It should, however, because London and Paris, if
properly incentivized, have much to offer. Not only do they have military
capabilities in the Gulf, but they have deep concerns about Chinese and Russian
intentions. Their leaders (especially the French) have good personal relations
with Gulf monarchs. At a time of mistrust in US-Gulf relations, British and
French good offices could be quite useful.
Burden-sharing is a desired goal that has been reiterated by successive US
administrations. One existing mechanism through which greater integration within
this trio of transatlantic allies on Gulf policy could be achieved, and through
which more effective coordination between that Western bloc and the Gulf states
could be realized, is NATO’s Istanbul Cooperation Initiative. Created at the
2004 NATO Summit in Istanbul, this platform seeks to promote security and
political cooperation on a bilateral basis between NATO and partner countries in
the Middle East. The truth is that it has not been very effective because the
most powerful member of NATO — the US — has not been involved. Three important
modifications could be made to the initiative to make it more successful. One,
Washington would have to play a more active role, both as facilitator and
enabler. Two, Saudi Arabia and Oman would have to join (right now, only Bahrain,
Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE are members). Three, the interactions between NATO
members and the Gulf states would have to include a multilateral format.
Like East Asia, the Gulf is as ripe for regional multilateralism as it is ripe
for competition with China and Russia. The US could use more of the former and
be better prepared for the latter. America’s physical presence in the Gulf is,
and will remain, a critical component of Gulf security for years to come. But
today’s threats require a more sophisticated and collective approach to regional
security. There is no better way to pursue that approach than by Washington
joining forces with its oldest and closest treaty allies that share its views,
values and objectives on the future of the region.
*Bilal Y. Saab is Senior Fellow and Director of the Middle East Institute’s
Defense and Security Program.
The de-dollarisation delusion
Christian Le Miere/The Arab Weekly/Tuesday, 18 April, 2023
Despite the grumbling, states are likely to be using the dollar as the global
reserve currency for years to come.
Is the dollar dying? In the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war and the massive
growth in money supply and the Federal Reserve’s assets in recent years, there
has been a slew of stories and speeches extolling the virtue of de-dollarisation.
The most recent came just last week, when Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da
Silva called for the establishment of a BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and
South Africa) currency. “Every night I ask myself why all countries have to base
their trade on the dollar,” he said. A few days earlier, Malaysia’s Prime
Minister Anwar Ibrahim claimed there was no reason for Malaysia to continue
depending on the dollar. And figures released April 3 showed that in February,
China’s yuan surpassed the dollar as the most traded currency in Russia.
These events have added to a sense that the dollar is in decline. With the rise
of China and continued polarisation of geopolitics, there is a palpable sense
that the yuan could pose a threat to the dollar’s dominance. Countries
previously beholden to the dollar could now strike out to trade in other
currencies, for commercial reasons, or even political ones if they disagree with
Washington.
China National Offshore Oil Corporation and France’s TotalEnergies conducted the
first ever yuan-settled energy deal in March through the sale of 65,000 tons of
Emirati liquefied natural gas. Even Saudi Arabia has hinted over the past year
that it might start settling oil trades in yuan rather than the dollar.
But in truth, while there is likely to be a continued rise in the use of the
yuan for some trade and finance, internationalisation of the yuan remains held
back by capital controls and lack of capital account convertibility and
financial sector liberalisation. There is, thus, still no real challenger to the
dollar for the foreseeable future.
Some statistics can help provide context to this point. The yuan’s share of
trade finance has more than doubled since Russia invaded Ukraine, according to
the Financial Times. The currency’s share of trade financing on the SWIFT
banking system grew from under two percent in February 2022 to 4.5 percent in
February 2023, a remarkable pace of growth.
But these gains map clearly onto the period that Russia itself has been cut off
from SWIFT. With punishing Western sanctions in place, Moscow has turned to
China for a much larger share of its imports. Thus, unable to finance in roubles,
Russia has turned to the yuan.
Not only that, China’s share of global trade financing remains small, according
to SWIFT. For context, the euro’s share is six percent and the US dollar’s share
is more than 84 percent. Given that China is the world’s largest goods-trading
nation, it is remarkable that the yuan takes up such a small share of trade
financing, indicative of the difficulties in internationalising the currency and
the continued status of the dollar as reserve currency.
Beyond the yuan, there are no other real challengers. The closest competitor
would be the euro, but this is the currency of a disparate group of 20 states
with varying fiscal policies, debt, and equity markets that suffered a
significant sovereign debt crisis a little more than a decade ago. There is
little chance the euro will be seen as a viable alternative any time soon.
And if that is true of the euro, imagine how much truer it would be of a BRICS
currency, a fanciful idea that would attempt to unite widely divergent economies
into a monetary union with little fiscal or political unity.
What of non-fiat alternatives? Crypto supporters will wax poetic about the
benefits of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and why they should be seen as better
stores of value than the dollar. But Bitcoin, barely used as a medium of
exchange, saw its value in dollar terms collapse by 75 percent from late 2021 to
late 2022 before bouncing back in April 2023. This hardy seems to be a widely
traded, trusted, or valued currency that financiers, businesses, and governments
would use in their transactions.
All of which is to say that the dollar’s dominance is here to stay. For the
dollar to be removed as reserve currency, a freely-traded and convertible
alternative, used widely and easily for trade, reserves and finance, would need
to emerge. Eventually, that might be the yuan, but certainly not now.
The continued debasement of the dollar and growth in Chinese trade will likely
lead to the dollar losing some of its lustre. But the idea that the petrodollar
is dead, given that major oil-producing states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE
still peg their currencies to the dollar, is far-fetched. Despite the grumbling,
states are likely to be using the dollar as the global reserve currency for
years to come.
*Christian Le Miere is the founder of Arcipel, a strategic advisory firm based
in London. Previously he was a senior advisor to an entity in Abu Dhabi and a
senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. @c_lemiere.