English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For September 25/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.september25.22.htm

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Bible Quotations For today
Beware that no one leads you astray. For many will come in my name, saying, “I am the Messiah!” and they will lead many astray
Matthew 24/01-14: “As Jesus came out of the temple and was going away, his disciples came to point out to him the buildings of the temple. Then he asked them, ‘You see all these, do you not? Truly I tell you, not one stone will be left here upon another; all will be thrown down.’ When he was sitting on the Mount of Olives, the disciples came to him privately, saying, ‘Tell us, when will this be, and what will be the sign of your coming and of the end of the age?’ Jesus answered them, ‘Beware that no one leads you astray. For many will come in my name, saying, “I am the Messiah!” and they will lead many astray. And you will hear of wars and rumours of wars; see that you are not alarmed; for this must take place, but the end is not yet. For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom, and there will be famines and earthquakes in various places: all this is but the beginning of the birth pangs. ‘Then they will hand you over to be tortured and will put you to death, and you will be hated by all nations because of my name. Then many will fall away, and they will betray one another and hate one another. And many false prophets will arise and lead many astray. And because of the increase of lawlessness, the love of many will grow cold. But anyone who endures to the end will be saved. And this good news of the kingdom will be proclaimed throughout the world, as a testimony to all the nations; and then the end will come.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 24-25/2022
Death toll continue to rise in Lebanon migrant shipwreck off Syria
Lebanon’s Northern Coasts Transform to Platform for Smuggling Migrants
Derian sets specifications of next president
Mikati: Progress has been made on maritime demarcation
Conflicting reports on progress level in govt. formation talks
Bassil says not running for president for now, govt. will be formed
Nasrallah, Hammoud meet
Berri meets Allawi, Khazen
For Hezbollah, a Maritime Border Deal Is a Way to Avoid War
Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/September 23/2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 24-25/2022
Over 700 protesters arrested in Iran, including 60 women
Iran Lead Negotiator Says to Meet Grossi
Iran Regrets Ukraine’s Downgrading of Ties
Ukraine to 'Significantly Reduce' Iran Diplomatic Presence
Raisi: Iran Must Deal Decisively with Protests
Washington Takes Measures to Ease Iranians Access to Internet
Ukraine to 'Significantly Reduce' Iran Diplomatic Presence
Kurdish Protesters Rally in Erbil over Amini's Death in Iran
Iraq's Kadhimi Calls for a 3rd Round of Talks
Russians strike Ukraine as Kremlin-staged votes continue
Nuclear attack would cause ‘political destruction for Russia’, says aid worker
Saudi crown prince and Germany’s Scholz discuss relations, areas of cooperation
Israeli troops kill Palestinian after alleged car-ramming
Blinken urges calm on Taiwan in talks with China

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 24-25/2022
Tehran’s program continues to gallop ahead, and the United States is doing very little about it./Robert Satloff/The Washington Institute/September 24/2022
Biden Administration Standing Idly By While Iran’s Mullahs Advance to Nuclear Bomb/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/September 24, 2022
Azerbaijan and Armenia: War or Peace!/Omer Onhon/Asharq Al Awsat/September 24/2022
The European 'Way of Life' Isn’t Looking Too Sweet/Lionel Laurent/Asharq Al Awsat/September 24/2022
Is the Syrian triangle approaching a perfect storm?/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/September 24/2022
Why Italy’s election could undermine the war in Ukraine/Andrew Hammond/Arab News/September 24/2022
Salute the courage of Iran’s female protesters/Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Arab News/September 24/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 24-25/2022
Death toll continue to rise in Lebanon migrant shipwreck off Syria
Najia Houssari/Arab News/AFP/September 24/2022
BEIRUT: Eighty-nine bodies have been recovered since a boat carrying migrants from Lebanon sunk off Syria’s coast, Syrian state media said Saturday, as the Lebanese army said it arrested a suspected smuggler behind one of the deadliest recent shipwrecks in the eastern Mediterranean. The Syrian Observatory meanwhile reported the casualties were at 88, with 50 passengers still unaccounted for. Around 150 people, mostly Lebanese and Syrians, were on board the small vessel that went down on Thursday off the Syrian city of Tartous. Lebanon has become a starting point for illegal migration, with its citizens joining Syrian and Palestinian refugees clamoring to leave their homeland. Illegal “death boats” set off every day from the northern coast of Lebanon. Some succeed in reaching their destination, a few are rescued by the coast guards of the countries in whose territorial waters their boats capsize, and the rest are swallowed up by the sea. Former Tripoli MP Mustafa Alloush told Arab News: “People have completely lost hope that the situation in Lebanon could improve and there are mafias exploiting this.”He said 95 percent of such illegal trips succeed in reaching their destinations, and those people who make it to Europe encourage their relatives and acquaintances to make the same journey. He added: “The Lebanese authorities know who these smugglers organizing such trips are. They get huge sums of money. Security officers are paid off to facilitate such journeys or turn a blind eye. “Why did this boat head toward Syria? Is it not to escape UNIFIL (the UN Interim Force in Lebanon), which patrols Lebanese waters? “Drug trafficking is illegal, but remains active given the amounts of money paid to dealers and distributors. “The same goes for human trafficking and smuggling. Money is paid, specifically to those who are supposed to protect people in this country.”Caretaker Minister of Public Works Ali Hamieh said: “This type of boat was not made for such trips and cannot carry that many people. It turned out that it was recently imported and arrived in Lebanon two months ago.” Most passengers were residents of northern Lebanon, some were Palestinian refugees from the Nahr Al-Bared camp, but the majority were Syrians, from Idlib, Aleppo and Latakia. These Syrians had illegally made their way into Lebanon to escape by sea through the north of the country.
Among the victims were two girls who were buried in Akkar, north Lebanon, after being transported there by car from Tartous. The mayor of Qarqaf, in Akkar, said: “The mother of the two girls drowned, as did her two sons. The father is still alive, but he is in a hospital in Syria.”The boat had embarked from Lebanon’s northern Minyeh region, with passengers paying $3,000 for children and $7,000 per adult for the trip. Lebanon’s Secretary-General of the Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party Ali Hijazi, who traveled to Tartous on Friday, said survivors had informed him the boat “left from Minyeh on Tuesday morning and experienced a technical malfunction. It capsized due to the waves on Thursday morning.” The Lebanese Army announced it has arrested eight suspected smugglers. The tragedy coincided with the announcement on social media of another boat that left the northern coast of Lebanon bound for Italy and broke down between Greece and Turkey. Its passengers were rescued and are currently in Turkey.

Lebanon’s Northern Coasts Transform to Platform for Smuggling Migrants
Beirut - Nazeer Rida/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 24 September, 2022
Lebanon’s northern region has been transformed into a trafficking hub for migrants looking to escape the country on “death boats” that sail across the Mediterranean nation’s open waters. Smuggling migrants has become an organized and profitable crime pursued by Lebanese, Syrian and Palestinian nationals. Lebanese authorities, with their modest capabilities, cannot fully put an end to the illegal activity. Authorities cannot face the overwhelming volume of repeated smuggling operations that take place daily. Additionally, authorities must deal with misleading mechanisms used by smugglers. The tragedy of the boat that sank off the Syrian coast on Thursday and resulted in dozens of deaths has pressed for opening the file of illegal migration that departs from Lebanon. “It is no longer a matter of individual operations,” a security source told Asharq Al-Awsat, adding that the matter has snowballed into a “cross-border organized operation.”Observers point out to the difficulty of knowing how many people are trying to make the voyage across Lebanese waters. “We get lost whenever we try to figure out who rode on which boat,” observers noted, adding that the process of keeping up with the smugglers has become a “complicated process.” Describing the northern Lebanese coasts as a “staging platform” has become a term agreed upon by politicians, security personnel, and observers of this file as migrant boats continue to frequently depart from Lebanese shores. While authorities sometimes succeed in thwarting escape attempts, some smugglers manage to reach their destination which is usually either Italy, Greece, or Cyprus. Local sources in Lebanon’s northern city of Tripoli told Asharq Al-Awsat that migrant smuggling operations “are taking place in an escalating manner.” “In the beginning, the boats were small fishing boats carrying twenty or thirty people, but now the situation has changed, and each trip carries more than fifty people,” explained the sources.

Death Toll from Sunken Lebanon Migrant Boat Rises
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 24 September, 2022
The death toll from a migrant boat that sank off the Syrian coast after sailing from Lebanon earlier this week has risen to 86, Syrian state TV said on Saturday. The Syrian transport ministry has quoted survivors as saying the boat left from Lebanon's northern Minyeh region on Tuesday with between 120 and 150 people onboard, bound for Europe. There were reported to be around 45 children on the boat, none of whom had survived, Lebanese transport minister Ali Hamiye said Friday. Hamiye said the boat was "very small" and made of wood, describing such sailings as an almost daily occurrence organized by people who did not care for safety. The spate of such voyages has been fueled by Lebanon's financial collapse in the last three years - one of the worst ever recorded globally. Poverty rates have sky-rocketed among the population of some 6.5 million.

Derian sets specifications of next president
NNA/Saturday, 24 September, 2022
A meeting of Sunni deputies was held in Dar Al-Fatwa at the invitation of the Grand Mufti of the Lebanese Republic, Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian, who began the session by reciting Surat Al-Fatihah on the souls of the victims of the boat that sank off the coast of Tartous.
The Mufti called on the Sunni MPs to form a government and elect a new president for the republic to address the crises experienced by the citizen at the economic, social and daily living levels.
Derian spoke about the specifications of the new president of the republic, the most important of which is that he preserves the principles of the homeland and the state, respects Lebanon's national, Arab and international legitimacy, and preserves the principles of Taif, the constitution and coexistence.

Mikati: Progress has been made on maritime demarcation
NNA/Saturday, 24 September, 2022
"Progress has been made in the demarcation of southern maritime borders, but there are still details that need to be clarified, so the final solution is not completed yet," Mikati said in an interview to al-Monitor website. “U.S. mediation has helped push for the demarcation, but there are still details to be clarified. So far I can say that progress has been made, but the final solution has not yet been achieved," Mikati added. “President Biden’s administration is doing its utmost to make these negotiations a success," he went on. In this respect, the Prime Minister underscored that all Lebanese political parties, including Hezbollah, support the government’s decisions and positions in the negotiations. Asked about the prospects of holding presidential elections on time, he indicated that "the election of a president of the republic is not a solution to the problems we suffer from, but it is a very necessary entitlement and a way to solving many of the challenges and problems facing Lebanon."With regard to agreement with the International Monetary Fund, he said: "We hope that the final agreement will be expected as soon as possible, which will be a kind of credit authentication to enable other donor countries to support and assist Lebanon."

Conflicting reports on progress level in govt. formation talks
Naharnet/Saturday, 24 September, 2022 
The optimism on an imminent formation of the new government has declined and an agreement on the ministers who will be changed is yet to be found, al-Akhbar newspaper reported on Saturday. Quoting sources close to PM-designate Najib Mikati, the daily said “the stances have not changed and the discussions over changing Minister of the Displaced Issam Sharafeddine and Economy Minister Amin Salam have not reached an agreement.”“Mikati has again insisted on changing the economy minister and on choosing the substitute, emphasizing that he should hail from Akkar because he wants to please this region in any way possible,” senior sources told al-Akhbar, noting that President Michel Aoun cannot accept Mikati’s demand unless the PM-designate agrees to give up one of the Christian ministers who are close to him. Baabda Palace sources also wondered in remarks to the newspaper about “the source of the optimistic reports that we heard over the past days,” pointing out that “the indications in our hands suggest that we are still in square one.”Al-Joumhouria newspaper meanwhile quoted “credible political sources” as saying that “things have reached their conclusions and the cabinet line-up was almost ready prior to Mikati’s travel.”“It only needs the traditional formal decrees in order to be declared,” the sources added, noting that “all parties have given up their rigid stances.”“The new government will win parliament’s confidence before October 10,” the sources added.

Bassil says not running for president for now, govt. will be formed
Naharnet/Saturday, 24 September, 2022 
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil has noted that he is not a presidential candidate as he reassured that a new government will be formed. “I won’t become a candidate except after I declare my candidacy, which I haven’t done until now,” Bassil said, in a video interview with Annahar newspaper. He also reiterated that he will not endorse the nomination of Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh. Hezbollah chief “Sayyed (Hassan) Nasrallah knows that he cannot persuade me with something I’m not convinced of,” Bassil added. He also rejected to back the possible nominations of MPs Neemat Frem and Michel Mouawad. “Ethics are everything,” Bassil added, noting that the election of Army chief General Joseph Aoun would require a constitutional amendment. Asked if he might ever vote for Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea for presidency, Bassil said: “I won’t vote for him and I don’t see him improving with time but rather worsening. Ever since he was jailed until now I have not witnessed a person who has learned or drawn lessons.” As for the sea border negotiations with Israel, Bassil said: “We have finalized the demarcation agreement regardless of the timing, which I expect to take place prior to the Israeli elections.” “Hezbollah is more than ready for a war that it does not want,” Bassil warned. As for the governmental file, the FPM chief said “the government will be formed because no one wants to go into the unknown.

Nasrallah, Hammoud meet
NNA/Saturday, 24 September, 2022
Hezbollah Secretary-General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, received on Saturday the President of the International Union of Scholars of Resistance, Sheikh Maher Hammoud. The pair broached the latest situation and developments on the national and Islamic arenas in Lebanon and the region.

Berri meets Allawi, Khazen
NNA/Saturday, 24 September, 2022
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri received at the second presidential headquarters in Ain al-Tineh, former Iraqi Prime Minister and head of the "National Coalition" Dr. Iyad Allawi, where they discussed the developments of the current situation in Lebanon and the region, especially the situation in Iraq and the bilateral relations between the two countries. Berri also received Lebanon's ambassador to the Vatican, Farid Elias Al-Khazen.

حنين غدار/معهد واشنطن: حزب الله يرى في الإتفاق اللبناني – الإسرائيلي الحدودي سبيلاً لتجنب الحرب
قادة حزب الله ليسوا مستعدين لتنفيذ تهديداتهم العديدة بالتصعيد الكبير، لذلك يجب على واشنطن وحلفائها منعه من جني الفوائد المالية وكسب السمعة على خلفية الإتفاق اللبناني – الإسرائيلي الحدودي الجاري العمل على انجازه
For Hezbollah, a Maritime Border Deal Is a Way to Avoid War
Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/September 23/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/112218/hanin-ghaddar-the-washington-institute-for-hezbollah-a-maritime-border-deal-is-a-way-to-avoid-war-%d8%ad%d9%86%d9%8a%d9%86-%d8%ba%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d9%85%d8%b9%d9%87%d8%af-%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%b4%d9%86/
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah leaders are not ready to act on their many threats of major escalation, so Washington and its allies should prevent the group from reaping the nascent agreement’s reputational and financial benefits.
After weeks of tension with Hezbollah over maritime border negotiations and natural gas rights between Israel and Lebanon, U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein is apparently close to finalizing a deal. According to reports from both sides, Israel stands to maintain all exclusive rights over the Karish gas field, while Lebanon would gain the entire Qana field. Beirut is still mulling the final details, but according to a September 17 speech by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, the group will give peace a chance and refrain from further threats or military action as the deal is finalized.
Tensions and threats on both sides have indeed moved the agreement’s timeline and made it a U.S. priority, leading some observers to portray the reported terms as a concession to Hezbollah’s militant stance on the issue. Yet the history of the negotiations shows that most of the concessions have been made by Hezbollah and Lebanon, not Israel.
In 2011, for instance, a study conducted by the Lebanese military suggested that the southern limit of the country’s exclusive economic zone should be extended south from Line 23 to Line 29, which would have brought most of the Karish field into Lebanon’s EEZ. Yet Lebanese president Michel Aoun ignored this suggestion and accepted Line 23 as the maritime border. In return for acknowledging Israel’s exclusive rights over Karish, Beirut insisted on maintaining control over the Qana field. According to a seismic survey that Lebanon ordered in 2013, Qana remains just a prospect—drilling would be required to determine if it actually contains gas and how much. In contrast, Karish had already been proven to hold gas at the time of Aoun’s decision.
Many Lebanese, including military officials, are well aware that this is a big concession to Israel, but Hezbollah is playing a different tune. Addressing the group’s support base, affiliated media outlets have claimed that achieving exclusive rights over Qana represents a victory over Israel—conveniently sidestepping the fact that Hezbollah is simply not ready for another war at the moment and prefers a diplomatic way out of the threats it has issued. Whatever the group’s ultimate intentions may be, a signed maritime agreement could create a new reality and narrative on the southern border with Israel, perhaps with less tension.
Hezbollah Doesn’t Want a War Right Now
Since their summer 2006 war, both Israel and Hezbollah have been trying to avoid another full-scale conflict—despite the group’s militant rhetoric and efforts to expand its arsenal, and despite Israel’s ongoing attacks against Hezbollah military bases in Syria. Viewed through that lens, Hezbollah’s recent threats of war have a different purpose: to accelerate the diplomatic process, finalize the maritime deal, and begin gas exploration.
In the years following the last war, Hezbollah seemed to reach two important realizations: that the threat of its missiles and drones could achieve more than the arms themselves, and that another war could hold worse consequences for the group than making concessions to its sworn enemy. Moreover, the quality of its fighting force was eroded by its subsequent involvement in the Syria war, compelling it to opt for quantity over quality when recruiting new fighters. As a result, many Hezbollah units are now less well-trained, less ideological, and less disciplined than before, so the group would need more time, resources, and funding to rehabilitate them for war. Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s main patron, Iran, will not be in a good financial position to fully fund the group or rebuild its army and arsenal unless the stalemate over the nuclear deal is broken. The group’s leadership has therefore been hoping that the mere threat of war will push the parties into a deal sooner rather than later.
Given Lebanon’s dire economic and financial deterioration, the government’s desperation for new gas revenue is no surprise (even if the possibility of such revenue is uncertain and would be a long time in coming). Yet Hezbollah is just as keen on reaping the benefits, both to boost its domestic legitimacy and “resistance” narrative—which have been fading for years—and to secure a sustainable cash flow for its operations at home and abroad. Another war would only worsen these problems. Indeed, as Israeli strikes in Syria have intensified over the past few weeks, more of Iran and Hezbollah’s weapons production facilities, convoys, and depots have been targeted. Some of these operations have extended into Lebanon as well. Replenishing the group’s arsenal under such circumstances is already difficult enough, so the prospect of wider conflict and disruption is not something Hezbollah wants to entertain at the moment—certainly not over a relatively minor and potentially beneficial issue like maritime border demarcation.
This does not mean the group will curtail its efforts to procure arms in the slightest, however. Despite its growing military and political challenges, Hezbollah has managed to develop several new capabilities since 2006, accumulating more short- and mid-range missiles as well as precision missiles capable of doing serious damage to vital Israeli infrastructure such as airports, water facilities, and power plants. At the same time, the group is well aware that actually going after such targets would beget a harsh Israeli response.
Instead, Hezbollah’s military leadership has gradually sought to transform the organization from a purely Lebanese group into a regional army, enabling it to burnish its “resistance” credentials and challenge Israeli and U.S. interests indirectly via Iranian partners and proxies in other countries (e.g., Iraq’s Shia militias; Yemen’s Houthis). The problem with this approach is that it risks setting off a regional war with the same undesirable result: direct conflict against Israel. Thus far, however, Hezbollah has either discounted the seriousness of this risk or decided that the gamble is worth it.
Whatever the case, many Lebanese Shia outside (and even inside) Hezbollah’s core constituency have seen through this attempted rebranding—they no longer regard the group as a resistance organization that fights injustice, occupation, and corruption, instead seeing it as little more than a drug cartel focused on mass production and smuggling of Captagon. They are also angry about Hezbollah’s efforts to shield corrupt politicians and hamper judicial proceedings related to the 2020 Beirut port blast.
Well aware of this increasing discontent, Hezbollah leaders see a gas deal as a way of regaining some legitimacy by claiming that the group’s weapons are what protected Lebanon’s valuable natural resources against Israel. They have been feeling even more vulnerable after losing their parliamentary majority in May, a development that may curtail their power to dictate who will fill Lebanon’s presidency and major security portfolios. This vulnerability is heightened by the realization that international sympathy would not necessarily be on their side in the event of another conflict—postwar reconstruction aid would likely be slower and less generous next time around, and Europe would no doubt be angry about any risk posed to Israel’s Karish field, whose gas will be going straight to them. This is not to mention the domestic backlash, which would probably be considerable given the huge expenditures and damage that such a conflict would bring. Even so, Hezbollah felt compelled to at least threaten war, since otherwise it risked losing face if Israel began unilaterally extracting gas from Karish before reaching a deal with Beirut.
Policy Options
Although Washington should continue pushing for a maritime border deal, it need not do so in a way that lets Hezbollah take all the credit. Knowing the many risks that the group is facing, U.S. officials should not take steps that boost its power at home—including in the process of picking Lebanon’s next president. Any deal with Beirut should highlight the country’s institutions and its people, while underscoring Hezbollah and Aoun’s negative role in the process (the president and his allies are still refusing to implement necessary energy reforms).
Once a deal is finalized and the maritime borders are secured, the U.S. government and its European allies need to follow up with diplomatic pressure to make sure that the financial benefits of Qana’s gas—if the field does in fact contain any—go to the Lebanese people, not into the black hole of corruption. Only a serious push to reform the country’s energy sector—such as creating a sovereign wealth fund—would provide such assurance. Otherwise, Lebanon will never truly benefit from the deal even if ample gas is found beneath its waters.
*Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Fellow in The Washington Institute’s Program on Arab Politics, where she focuses on Shia politics throughout the Levant.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/hezbollah-maritime-border-deal-way-avoid-war

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 24-25/2022
Over 700 protesters arrested in Iran, including 60 women
AFP/September 24, 2022
DUBAI/TEHRAN: Iranian police in just one province have arrested over 700 people during more than a week of protests following the death of a young woman in custody, Tasnim news agency reported Saturday. General Azizollah Maleki, police chief of Guilan province, announced “the arrest of 739 rioters including 60 women,” the Iranian media outlet said. Iran must deal decisively with protests which have swept the country after the death in custody of a woman detained by the Islamic Republic’s morality police, President Ebrahim Raisi said on Saturday. Thirty-five people have been killed in the weeklong demonstrations, according to Iran’s state television, with protest spreading to most of the country’s 31 provinces. On Friday, state-organized rallies took place in several Iranian cities to counter the anti-government protests, and the army promised to confront “the enemies” behind the unrest.
State media quoted Raisi on Saturday as saying Iran must “deal decisively with those who oppose the country’s security and tranquility.” Raisi was speaking by telephone to the family of a member of the Basij volunteer force killed while taking part in the crackdown on unrest in the northeastern city of Mashhad. The president “stressed the necessity to distinguish between protest and disturbing public order and security, and called the events ... a riot,” state media reported. The protests broke out in northwestern Iran a week ago at the funeral of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish woman who died after falling into a coma following her detention by morality police enforcing hijab rules on women’s dress. Her death has reignited anger over issues including restrictions on personal freedoms in Iran, the strict dress codes for women and an economy reeling from sanctions. Women have played a prominent role in the protests, waving and burning their veils. Some have publicly cut their hair as furious crowds called for the fall of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The protests are the largest to sweep the country since demonstrations over fuel prices in 2019, when Reuters reported 1,500 people were killed in a crackdown on protesters. It was the bloodiest confrontation in the Islamic Republic’s history. Iranian news agencies reported on Saturday that 739 protesters had been arrested in the northern province of Gilan, on the Caspian Sea. The activist Twitter account 1500tasvir, which has 125,000 followers, said communication channels with the northwestern town of Oshnavieh had been cut off, and landlines were down.

Iran Lead Negotiator Says to Meet Grossi
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 24 September, 2022
The head of Iran's atomic energy agency said Saturday he will meet next week with the chief of the UN's nuclear watchdog, as attempts to revive the country's nuclear deal stall. "I will go to Austria to take part in the annual general conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna, where I will meet with Director General Rafael Grossi," Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Mohammad Eslami told state television, according to AFP. The Vienna-based IAEA's annual conference takes place this year from September 26-30. The UN watchdog said early this month it was "not in a position to provide assurance that Iran's nuclear program is exclusively peaceful". It has been pressing for answers on the presence of nuclear material at three undeclared sites and the issue led to a resolution that criticized Iran being passed at a June meeting of the IAEA's board of governors. The three sites represent a key sticking point in negotiations to restore a tattered 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers. Those negotiations began in Vienna in April 2021 but have repeatedly stalled. The US walked out of the original deal under then president Donald Trump in 2018 and re-imposed biting sanctions, provoking Tehran into incrementally stepping back from its nuclear commitments. Iran has repeatedly said it wants the IAEA to drop its interest in the three sites -- a position that the nuclear watchdog says lacks credibility. "I hope that my talks will put an end... to the false accusations about certain (nuclear) sites stemming from political pressure and psychological operations exerted against Iran," Eslami added. In a speech at the UN General Assembly on Wednesday, Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi re-iterated his country's long held insistence that it is not seeking a nuclear weapon.

Iran Regrets Ukraine’s Downgrading of Ties
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 24 September, 2022
Iran regrets Ukraine's decision to downgrade ties over the reported supply of Iranian drones to Russia, the Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson said in a statement on Saturday. Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani "advised" Ukraine to "refrain from being influenced by third parties who seek to destroy relations between the two countries". Ukraine said on Friday that it would downgrade diplomatic ties with Iran over Tehran's decision to supply Russian forces with drones. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called the move "a collaboration with evil."

Ukraine to 'Significantly Reduce' Iran Diplomatic Presence
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 24 September, 2022
Kyiv said on Friday it has decided to reduce Iran's diplomatic presence in Ukraine over sending weapons to its foe Russia. Ukraine's foreign ministry said "the temporary charge d'affaires of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Ukraine was summoned" over the issue. A ministry statement said the envoy was told the supply of Iranian weapons to Russia "directly contradicts the position of neutrality, respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine" and was "an unfriendly act that deals a serious blow to Ukraine-Iran relations". "In response to such an unfriendly act, the Ukrainian side decided to deprive the ambassador of Iran in Ukraine of accreditation, as well as to significantly reduce the number of diplomatic personnel of the Iranian embassy in Kyiv", the ministry said. Earlier on Friday Kyiv said one civilian was killed during a Russian attack with drones on the southern port city of Odessa and one Iranian-designed unmanned vehicle was shot down by Ukrainian forces. According to AFP, President Volodymyr Zelensky's spokesman said "the use of Iranian-made weapons by Russian troops... are steps taken by Iran against the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our state."
Later on Friday Ukraine's armed forces said four Iranian-made drones had been shot down in the south of the country during the day.

Raisi: Iran Must Deal Decisively with Protests
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 24 September, 2022
Iran must deal decisively with protests which have swept the country after the death in custody of a woman detained by the morality police, President Ebrahim Raisi said on Saturday. Thirty-five people have been killed in the weeklong demonstrations, according to Iran's state television, with protests spreading to most of the country's 31 provinces. On Friday, state-organized rallies took place in several Iranian cities to counter the anti-government protests, and the army promised to confront "the enemies" behind the unrest. State media quoted Raisi on Saturday as saying Iran must "deal decisively with those who oppose the country's security and tranquility". According to Reuters, Raisi was speaking by telephone to the family of a member of the Basij volunteer force killed while taking part in the crackdown on unrest in the northeastern city of Mashhad. The president "stressed the necessity to distinguish between protest and disturbing public order and security, and called the events ... a riot," state media reported. The protests broke out in northwestern Iran a week ago at the funeral of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish woman who died after falling into a coma following her detention by morality police enforcing hijab rules on women's dress. Iranian news agencies reported on Saturday that 739 protesters had been arrested in the northern province of Gilan, on the Caspian Sea. The activist Twitter account 1500tasvir, which has 125,000 followers, said communication channels with the northwestern town of Oshnavieh had been cut off, and landlines were down. Oshnavieh was one of several towns in northwest Iran, where most of the country's 10 million Kurds live, that held a strike on Friday. Kurdish rights group Hengaw posted a video it said showed protesters in control of parts of the town on Friday.

Washington Takes Measures to Ease Iranians Access to Internet
Washington - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 24 September, 2022
The United States Treasury Department issued guidance expanding the range of internet services available to Iranians despite US sanctions on the country. The US took action to support the free flow of information and access to fact-based information to the Iranian people after the Iranian government cut off access to the Internet for most of its 80 million citizens on Wednesday. The updated guidance will authorize technology companies to offer the Iranian people more options of secure, outside platforms and services. The step came after a bipartisan group of US lawmakers called on Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to give Elon Musk’s satellite Internet service Starlink clearance to operate in Iran, amid protests around the country following the death of a 22-year-old woman in custody. Musk recently stated that SpaceX would seek a license to provide its satellite based Starlink Internet service to Iran. “We need to do our part to ensure that Iranians remain connected to the outside world,” read a letter by 21 lawmakers to the Treasury Department. “As courageous Iranians take to the streets to protest the death of Mahsa Amini, the United States is redoubling its support for the free flow of information to the Iranian people,” said Deputy Secretary of the Treasury Wally Adeyemo. “With these changes, we are helping the Iranian people be better equipped to counter the government’s efforts to surveil and censor them,” Adeyemo noted, adding that Washington will continue issuing guidance to support the Administration’s commitment to promoting the free flow of information in the coming weeks. Internet monitoring group NetBlocks on Thursday said a new mobile internet disruption has been registered in Iran, where access to social media and some content is tightly restricted.
NetBlocks reported “near-total” disruption to internet connectivity in the capital of the Kurdish region on Monday, linking it to the protests. Social media websites such as TikTok, YouTube, Twitter and Facebook are routinely blocked in parts of Iran, which has some of the strictest internet controls in the world. But tech-savvy residents bypass curbs using virtual private networks (VPNs).

Ukraine to 'Significantly Reduce' Iran Diplomatic Presence
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 24 September, 2022
Kyiv said on Friday it has decided to reduce Iran's diplomatic presence in Ukraine over sending weapons to its foe Russia. Ukraine's foreign ministry said "the temporary charge d'affaires of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Ukraine was summoned" over the issue. A ministry statement said the envoy was told the supply of Iranian weapons to Russia "directly contradicts the position of neutrality, respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine" and was "an unfriendly act that deals a serious blow to Ukraine-Iran relations". "In response to such an unfriendly act, the Ukrainian side decided to deprive the ambassador of Iran in Ukraine of accreditation, as well as to significantly reduce the number of diplomatic personnel of the Iranian embassy in Kyiv", the ministry said. Earlier on Friday Kyiv said one civilian was killed during a Russian attack with drones on the southern port city of Odessa and one Iranian-designed unmanned vehicle was shot down by Ukrainian forces. According to AFP, President Volodymyr Zelensky's spokesman said "the use of Iranian-made weapons by Russian troops... are steps taken by Iran against the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our state."
Later on Friday Ukraine's armed forces said four Iranian-made drones had been shot down in the south of the country during the day.

Kurdish Protesters Rally in Erbil over Amini's Death in Iran
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 24 September, 2022
Dozens of Iraqi and Iranian Kurds rallied in Iraq's northern city of Erbil on Saturday over the death of Mahsa Amini, a young woman who died in the custody of Iranian police. Protestors carrying placards with Amini's photograph gathered outside the United Nations compound in Erbil chanting "Death to the dictator" - a reference to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. "Women, Life, Freedom" chanted others, many of whom were Iranian Kurds living in self-imposed exile in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq. Protests broke out in northwestern Iran a week ago at the funeral of Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish woman who died after falling into a coma following her detention by morality police enforcing hijab rules on women's dress.

Iraq's Kadhimi Calls for a 3rd Round of Talks
Aden - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 24 September, 2022
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Kadhimi emphasized that the region's stability relies on Iraq's stability, calling for the third round of national dialogue to resolve his country's political crisis. He asserted that Iraq's problems would not be solved without dialogue and that political factions have an opportunity to rebuild the country. "The government of Iraq is working to build the state to maintain its structure based on coexistence among all the Iraqi people," he declared in his UN speech. "Iraq is keen to be a source of stability regionally and internationally," he said in an interview with the official Iraqi channel at his headquarters in New York, where he is participating in the UN General Assembly. Kadhimi revealed that Iraq had been involved in five discreet mediation efforts in the region, including the talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and it succeeded in bringing the views together between the two nations. The Prime Minister continued: "We will contribute to everything to help stabilize the region," revealing that authorities had arrested a person who confessed to killing protesters last month. "Last week, we arrested a person, who belongs to one of the state institutions, who confessed to killing protesters and some personalities," Kadhimi said. He also stressed "The need for state, legislative, judicial and security institutions to cooperate to end uncontrolled weapons." He accused some parties of wanting the government to fail because of personal disagreements between politicians, calling on all parties that have issues with him to resolve them away from the interests of the people. Iraq's cash reserve reached $86 billion, expected to increase to $100 billion, said the PM, noting that the country has the most significant and fastest economic growth and is the first in the Middle East and fifth in the world. "The white paper succeeded in achieving economic reform," he asserted. Earlier, Kadhimi met with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who praised the Prime Minister's role in maintaining civil peace. During the meeting, they discussed the situation in Iraq and the government's efforts to mitigate political differences by adopting the national dialogue initiative between political forces. Guterres affirmed his support for Kadhimi's initiative in the national dialogue between the political forces, reiterating his rejection of the attacks that violate Iraq's sovereignty and interference in its internal affairs. Kadhimi thanked the United Nations mission in helping help Iraq hold transparent and fair elections, applauding the role of the United Nations and its development programs to enhance local capacities and rehabilitate those affected by terrorism and its projects of environment and sustainable development. The meeting also addressed the situation in Iraq and the government's efforts to mitigate political differences by adopting the national dialogue initiative between political forces. The discussion touched on the situation in displacement camps and the government's efforts to close most of them and return the IDPs to their areas of origin.

Russians strike Ukraine as Kremlin-staged votes continue
Associated Press/September 24/2022
Russian forces launched new strikes on Ukrainian cities Saturday as Kremlin-orchestrated votes continued in occupied regions of Ukraine to pave the way for their annexation by Moscow. Zaporizhzhia Gov. Oleksandr Starukh said the Russians targeted infrastructure facilities in the Dnieper River city, and one of the missiles hit an apartment building, killing one person and injuring seven others. The Russian forces also struck other areas in Ukraine, damaging residential buildings and civilian infrastructure. The British Defense Ministry said that Russia was targeting the Pechenihy dam on the Siverskyy Donets River in northeastern Ukraine following previous strikes on a dam on a reservoir near Kryvyi Rih, causing flooding on the Inhulets River. "Ukrainian forces are advancing further downstream along both rivers," the British said. "As Russian commanders become increasingly concerned about their operational setbacks, they are probably attempting to strike the sluice gates of dams, in order to flood Ukrainian military crossing points." Amid the fighting, voting continued in Kremlin-organized referendums in occupied areas — votes that Ukraine and its Western allies dismissed as a sham with no legal force.
In the five-day voting in the eastern Luhansk and Donetsk regions and Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in the south that began Friday, election officials accompanied by police officers carried ballots to homes and set up mobile polling stations, citing safety reasons. The votes are set to wrap up Tuesday when balloting will be held at polling stations. The voting was also was held in Russia, where refugees and other residents of those regions cast ballots.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that Moscow will heed the residents' will, a clear indication that the Kremlin is poised to quickly annex the regions once the voting is over. Ukraine and the West said the vote was an illegitimate attempt by Moscow to slice away a large part of the country, stretching from the Russian border to the Crimean Peninsula. A similar referendum took place in Crimea in 2014 before Moscow annexed it, a move that most of the world considered illegal. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged Ukrainians in occupied regions to undermine the referendums and to share information about the people conducting "this farce." He also urged Ukrainians to avoid being called up in the Russian mobilization announced Wednesday. "But if you do end up in the Russian army, then sabotage any enemy activity, interfere with any Russian operations, give us all important information about the occupiers. ... And at the first opportunity, switch to our positions," he said in his nightly address. Russia's Defense Ministry said that a partial mobilization ordered by Putin aimed to add about 300,000 troops, but the presidential decree keeps the door open for a broader call-up.
Across Russa's 11 time zones, men hugged their weeping family members before being rounded up for service amid fears that a wider call-up might follow. Some media reports claimed that the Russian authorities actually plan to mobilize more than 1 million, the allegations denied by the Kremlin.
Protests against the mobilization that erupted Wednesday in Moscow, St. Petersburg and several other Russian cities were quickly dispersed by police, who arrested over 1,300 and immediately handed call-up summons to many of them. Anti-war activists are planning more protests Saturday. Many Russian men tried desperately to leave the country, buying up scarce and exorbitantly priced plane tickets. Thousands others fled by car, creating lines of traffic hours or even days long at some borders. The lines of cars were so long at the border with Kazakhstan that some people abandoned their vehicles and walked — just as some Ukrainians did after Russia invaded their country Feb. 24. In a bid to calm public fears over the call-up, the authorities announced that many of those working in high tech, communications or finance will be exempt.

Nuclear attack would cause ‘political destruction for Russia’, says aid worker
Lily Ford and Lottie Kilraine/PA Media: UK News/September 24/2022
A Ukrainian aid worker said he does not fear a nuclear attack because it would cause “political destruction” for Russia – but said the damage already inflicted by the war is already akin to a nuclear strike. Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the West of “nuclear blackmail” on Wednesday and warned “it’s not a bluff” as he vowed to use weapons of mass destruction to protect his country. Dimko Zhluktenko, an aid worker based in Lviv, western Ukraine, said he does not believe there will be a nuclear strike as the move would have no strategic advantage for Russian forces.
“Even if it were to happen, it wouldn’t have a massive effect,” the 23-year-old told the PA news agency. “If they do a tactical nuke strike, that will be pure terrorism and that will lead to the absolute destruction of Russia. “It wouldn’t grant any strategic advantage to Russian forces because they wouldn’t be able to advance to capture new territories. “And at the same time, politically they would be destroyed because they would most likely get strikes back and face total isolation from other nations.”Earlier this week, Mr Putin announced a partial military mobilisation, with 300,000 reservists set to be called up as the Kremlin attempts to regain ground in the face of a counter-attack by Ukrainian troops. Mr Zhluktenko said he believes a nuclear strike on Ukraine would be met with an immediate reprisal from allied countries and Nato forces. But he said the extent of the damage already inflicted on cities like Mariupol by the Russian military could be compared to that of a nuclear attack. “My guess is that any escalation would be immediately answered by other allies, such as members of Nato, because it is pure barbarism,” Mr Zhluktenko said. “Russia has already done a similar level of damage comparable to a tactical nuke when they besieged Mariupol. “The city is ruined. It’s all rubble and the amount of civilians killed, according to the latest numbers, is over 100,000 people, which is crazy. “The amount of people killed really is comparable to a nuclear strike, given that Mariupol was such a big city.”Mr Zhluktenko said the ongoing war has ruined efforts to repair and rebuild infrastructure in Mariupol. He said the level of damage means the only the way to rebuild the city now would be to “start from scratch”. “Mariupol is destroyed, every building is damaged and in such a way that they are unable to repair it that quickly,” Mr Zhluktenko said. “No one is repairing the water supply, the electricity or any of the buildings and they are rotting. “You cannot restore them, they are unusable, so you’ve just got to destroy them and start from scratch but this is the case for 95% of the buildings.” Mr Zhluktenko said restrictions imposed on Russia if a nuclear attack were to happen would also have major financial implications on European countries and the US. “The world has given Russia a chance to die slowly and allowed it remain a sovereign state, as it’s more profitable that way,” he said. “It is bad for whole world if Russia collapses and dissolves into many independent states.”Mr Zhluktenko said the potential threat of a nuclear war does not bother him as he has accepted that “freedom comes at a cost”. “We are protecting our homeland, while on the Russian side there is no clear goal except for the total destruction of Ukraine,” he said.
“I’m fighting for freedom and I have already accepted that freedom always comes at a cost. “That cost could be my life, or the life of my brother in arms, and I’m willing to pay that. “If tomorrow there is a nuclear strike, I’ll be here and I’ll be sure that I did absolutely the right thing.”Ukraine’s presidential office said on Friday at least 10 civilians were killed and 39 others were wounded by Russian shelling in nine Ukrainian regions over the last 24 hours.

Saudi crown prince and Germany’s Scholz discuss relations, areas of cooperation
Arab News/September 24, 2022
JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Saturday received German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Jeddah, who was in the Kingdom at the beginning of a two-day tour of the Gulf region, the Saudi Press Agency reported. During the meeting, held at Al-Salam Palace, Prince Mohammed welcomed the German chancellor to the Kingdom and conveyed greetings from King Salman, while Scholz expressed his happiness to visit the country and meet with the crown prince. The two sides reviewed aspects of Saudi-German relations and areas of partnership between the two countries, in addition to discussing prospects for bilateral cooperation and opportunities for its development in accordance with the Kingdom’s Vision 2030. During the reception, the latest regional and international developments were discussed, as well as efforts to achieve international stability and peace. They also exchanged views on a number of issues and issues of common concern. The crown prince and the German chancellor also met with business delegations from Saudi Arabia and Germany. Prince Mohammed then hosted a working lunch for the German chancellor. Scholz, who will return to Berlin on Sunday evening after also visiting the UAE and Qatar, is accompanied by a large delegation that includes representatives of several economic sectors.

Israeli troops kill Palestinian after alleged car-ramming
AP/September 24, 2022
JERUSALEM : Israeli troops on Saturday shot and killed a Palestinian motorist who allegedly tried to ram his car into a group of soldiers patrolling in the occupied West Bank, according to Israeli soldiers and media. The incident took place near the city of Nablus in the northern West Bank — the focal point of the deadliest Israeli-Palestinian violence in the occupied territory since 2016. In a brief statement, the military said the soldiers opened fire when the motorist tried to run them over. Israeli media said the driver was killed. There was no way to immediately verify the account. Palestinian assailants have carried out dozens of attempted stabbings and car rammings in recent years. But Palestinians and human rights groups say that Israeli troops often use excessive force, and in some cases, have shot people who did not pose a threat. Israeli troops have been carrying out stepped-up activity in the northern West Bank since a series of deadly Palestinian attacks inside Israel last spring. Several attackers came from the area. Some 90 Palestinians have been killed in the crackdown. Israel says many were militants or local youths who hurled stones and firebombs at troops, though several civilians have also died.
Early this week, Palestinian security forces, which coordinate activity with Israel, clashed with Palestinian youths in Nablus. The incident cast a spotlight on the growing ranks of Palestinian youths who see no end in sight to Israel’s 55-year military occupation and view the Palestinian Authority as a vehicle of corruption and collaboration with Israel. Israeli officials say they are on heightened alert for violence ahead of the Jewish new year, which begins Sunday night.

Blinken urges calm on Taiwan in talks with China
Agence France Presse/September 24, 2022
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has called for calm over Taiwan as he met his Chinese counterpart, as soaring tensions showed signs of easing a notch. Blinken met for 90 minutes with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in New York on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, in talks a U.S. official described as "extremely candid" and focused largely on Taiwan. Blinken "stressed that preserving peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is critical to regional and global security and prosperity," a State Department statement said. He "discussed the need to maintain open lines of communication and responsibly manage the U.S.-PRC relationship, especially during times of tension," it added, using the acronym for the People's Republic of China. A State Department official described the exchange on Taiwan as "direct and honest." The official said Blinken also renewed US warnings not to support Russia's invasion of Ukraine, amid guarded US hopes that Beijing is taking a distance from Moscow, nominally its ally. Wang met in New York with Ukraine's foreign minister for the first time since the war and, in a Security Council session Thursday, emphasized the need for a ceasefire rather than support for Russia. Blinken, who went ahead with the talks despite the death of his father the previous day, met Wang for the first time since a sit-down in July in Bali, where both sides appeared optimistic for more stability. One month later, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, infuriating Beijing, which staged exercises seen as a trial run for an invasion of the self-governing democracy, which it claims as its territory. And in an interview aired Sunday, President Joe Biden said he was ready to intervene militarily if China uses force in Taiwan, once again deviating from decades of U.S. ambiguity. In the meeting with Blinken, Wang accused the U.S. of "sending very wrong and dangerous signals" encouraging Taiwan independence, the Chinese foreign ministry said in a readout. Wang told Blinken that China wished for "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan and warned that "the more rampant 'Taiwan independence' activities are, the less likely a peaceful solution would be," according to the foreign ministry. The U.S. official said Blinken insisted to Wang that "there has been no change" to the U.S. policy of only recognizing Beijing and voiced opposition to "unilateral changes to the status quo" by either side.
Taiwan the 'biggest risk'
In a sign that tensions have eased, Wang also met in New York with U.S. climate envoy John Kerry, despite China's announcement after Pelosi's visit that it was curbing cooperation on the issue, a key priority for Biden. But in a speech before his talks with Blinken, Wang called Taiwan "the biggest risk in China-US relations" and accused the United States of stoking pro-independence forces. "Taiwan independence is like a highly disruptive great rhinoceros charging toward us. It must be stopped resolutely," he said at the Asia Society think tank. "Just as the US will not allow Hawaii to be stripped away, China has the right to uphold the unification of the country," he said. He denounced the US decision to "allow" the Taiwan visit by Pelosi, who is second in line to the presidency after the vice president. The Biden administration, while privately concerned about her trip, noted that Congress is a separate branch of government. But Wang was conciliatory toward Biden. The New York talks are expected to lay the groundwork for a first meeting between Biden and President Xi Jinping since they became their two countries' leaders, likely in Bali in November on the sidelines of a summit of the Group of 20 economic powers. Wang said that both Biden and Xi seek to "make the China-US relationship work" and to "steer clear of conflict and confrontation."The US Congress is a stronghold of support for Taiwan, a vibrant democracy and major technological power. Last week, a Senate committee took a first step to providing billions of dollars in weapons directly to Taiwan to deter China, a ramp-up from decades of only selling weapons requested by Taipei. Tensions have also risen over human rights, with the United States accusing the communist state of carrying out genocide against the mostly Muslim Uyghur people.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 24-25/2022
روبرت ساتلوف/معهد واشنطن: إيران تتقدم في تحقيق برنامجها النووي فيما الولايات المتحدة تقوم فقط بفعل القليل حياله
Tehran’s program continues to gallop ahead, and the United States is doing very little about it.
Robert Satloff/The Washington Institute/September 24/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/112211/robert-satloff-the-washington-institute-tehrans-program-continues-to-gallop-ahead-and-the-united-states-is-doing-very-little-about-it-%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%a8%d8%b1%d8%aa-%d8%b3%d8%a7%d8%aa%d9%84%d9%88/
Why is the Biden administration taking such a blase attitude toward Iran’s nuclear program? While still a candidate, Joe Biden wrote one foreign policy op-ed. It was on Iran. Biden declared it a “priority to set Iran policy right.” He expressed deep concern that Donald Trump’s decision to exit the 2015 nuclear deal—the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—gave Iran the opening to amass a huge stockpile of enriched uranium, thereby cutting down its time to nuclear breakout from a year to “just a few months.” Biden then vowed to rejoin the agreement “if Iran returns to strict compliance.”
That diplomatic approach has essentially governed U.S. policy ever since—Washington remains ready to re-enter the nuclear deal whenever Iran says okay. But Iran hasn’t said okay, at least not yet. In the meantime, the situation has gotten much worse.
Since Biden took office, the Iranians have gone on an enrichment blitz. They blasted through the JCPOA’s limitations, enriching to 20 and then 60 percent purity using centrifuges far more advanced and sophisticated than those allowed under the original agreement. The result, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, is that Iran has produced nearly four thousand kilograms of enriched uranium, including 55.6 kg at the 60 percent level.
Should Iran decide to use that uranium for military purposes, it could make a dash to 90 percent enrichment in just a matter of weeks, potentially producing enough fissile material for multiple nuclear devices. And while most experts believe it would take significantly longer to build deliverable bombs, no one really knows the status of Iran’s “weaponization” program: It is easy to hide computer simulations and laboratory testing, and there have been no comprehensive inspections of known facilities—let alone unknown facilities—for more than a year and a half.
In sum, a nuclear threat is much worse today than it was when Biden took office. Oddly, Washington hasn’t really done much about it.
On the diplomatic front, the administration has sweetened its offer to entice Iran into a new nuclear deal. While it quite rightly held firm on Iran’s demand to remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from an official list of “foreign terrorist organizations,” Washington has given ground on many other items.
On the nuclear side of the agreement, the United States has purportedly agreed to allow Iran to keep, in storage, thousands of advanced centrifuges it has made contrary to the terms of the original deal. By U.S. negotiators’ own admission, the cumulative result of such concessions is that a new deal would only restore Iran’s “breakout” time to six months, which is half of what it was when the United States pulled out of the JCPOA in 2018. And on economic matters, the new deal purportedly gives Iran immediate access to a certain amount of blocked assets, before it even exports most of its massive stockpile of enriched uranium for safekeeping in a third country. It also gives Iran a way around prohibitions on financial transactions with the IRGC, which controls a sizable chunk of Iran’s economy, by offering international firms the option of doing business with companies in which the IRGC has partial ownership (though not a controlling interest).
None of this, however, seems to have convinced Iran to sign on to the new JCPOA. Even with these added incentives, Iran is still holding out on an agreement. Indeed, according to the most recent reports, Tehran has actually hardened its position.
Why would Iran reject a better offer now than the one it accepted seven years ago, knowing that constraints on its nuclear program—known as “sunsets”—begin to expire in just thirty months? There are a handful of possible explanations—or a combination of possible explanations. Perhaps Iran has made such enormous technological progress it doesn’t want to pause its nuclear program. Perhaps existing sanctions are not nearly as painful as we suspect, with Iran earning enough from semi-clandestine oil sales that the advantages of a new deal aren’t significant enough to exchange current reality for future uncertainty. Perhaps Iran’s reluctance for a new deal reflects ongoing debate at the highest levels of government. Or perhaps Iran is simply waiting for an even sweeter offer coming from Washington.
Regardless of the exact reason why, the menacing reality is that Iran’s nuclear program is galloping ahead—and the United States is doing very little about it. Its incentives don’t seem to be working. And the Biden administration is reluctant to pursue either of the two most widely discussed forms of pressure: tightening sanctions or making real the potential of a military alternative. The former would mean penalizing China, which buys most of Iran’s oil—a step that could push Beijing to be more bellicose in East Asia while constricting the global oil supply and potentially adding to inflation. And the latter would raise anxiety about armed conflict in the Gulf, which the administration says it is keen to avoid.
The result has been a stunning passivity in U.S. policy toward the Iran nuclear issue. The administration may publicly decry the worrisome progress Iran is making toward a nuclear weapons capability, but it is also doing remarkably little about it.
Here, let me add a personal word: I oppose a return to the JCPOA—it’s deeply flawed—and I especially oppose the sweetened terms the United States has since offered to entice Iran to accept a watered-down version. I believe whatever nonproliferation benefits there may be to the deal are far outweighed by the huge advantages Iran would reap, from legitimizing its flagrantly illegal nuclear progress to receiving substantial financial rewards that would fuel subversion and terrorism throughout the Middle East. In my view, we are already in the post-JCPOA world. Now, our focus should be to coordinate with our European and Middle East allies on strategies to deter Iran from further nuclear advancement.
But the Biden administration is taking a different view—it believes a new nuclear deal is worth the cost. In fact, it argues that a new nuclear deal is the only way to stop Iran’s runaway nuclear progress. But it isn’t doing much to compel Iran to accept a new deal.
Here’s a suggestion. If the Biden administration wants to avoid the pain of tightening sanctions or the fear of military action, there is a third way to raise the cost to Iran of refusing to accept a nuclear deal: threaten to revoke the fundamental concession at the heart of the original JCPOA. That is the recognition of Iran’s “right to enrich.”
More than anything else, Iran’s greatest achievement in the original JCPOA was gaining international legitimacy for its demand to a right to enrich. This same claim Washington has insisted other countries, like the United Arab Emirates, had to give up if they wanted nuclear cooperation with the United States.
If the Biden administration really wanted to threaten Iran, it would put the “right to enrich” back on the bargaining table. The most effective way to do this would be to secure a commitment from a separate JCPOA signatory—most likely Britain—that it would trigger the agreement’s “snap back” mechanism by a date certain, effectively blowing up what remains of the JCPOA if Iran does not agree to return to the deal.
Again, I never liked the original JCPOA, and I certainly don’t like the diluted version that the Biden administration is offering Iran now. But I like American passivity even less. If Washington truly believes that a new nuclear deal is the most effective way to stop Iran’s runaway nuclear program, it’s not good enough just to wait for Iran to accept a deal whose value shrinks with every day that it sits on the bargaining table. We must act, and now.
*Robert Satloff is executive director of The Washington Institute. This article was originally published on the American Purpose website.

د. ماجد رفي زاده/معهد جيتستون: إدارة بايدن تقف مكتوفة الأيدي بينما يتقدم ملالي إيران في سعيهم لإمتلاك القنبلة النووية
Biden Administration Standing Idly By While Iran’s Mullahs Advance to Nuclear Bomb
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/September 24, 2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/112214/112214/
[M]ore than a year and half of negotiations seems to have benefited no one except the ruling and Islamist mullahs of Iran. The endless negotiations seem simply to have bought time for the mullahs, so that they could comfortably advance their nuclear program to their highest level ever. Not only has the Biden administration seen no urgency to change its disastrous path, it is actually redoubling efforts to for Iran talks, presumably after America’s mid-term election on November 8.
The Biden administration has even been ignoring a joint statement issued by the UK, France and Germany admitting that Tehran “has no credible civilian need for uranium metal R&D and production, which are a key step in the development of a nuclear weapon.”
The Biden administration needs to make it plain to Iran’s ruling mullahs that if Tehran advances its nuclear program further, severe military, political, diplomatic and economic options against Iran are on the table.
Economic sanctions, which will cut the flow of funds to the Iranian regime and the terrorist Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, must be imposed as well. The Biden administration also needs to stand firm against countries such as China, which are violating US sanctions by buying oil or trading with the Iranian regime.
It must be made unmistakably clear to the Iranian regime that the United States will not allow Iran’s current regime, a designated state sponsor of terrorism, to arm itself with nuclear weapons and emerge as yet another global nuclear threat, in the Middle East, in Europe and throughout South America.
It must be made unmistakably clear to the Iranian regime that the U.S. will not allow Iran’s current regime, a designated state sponsor of terrorism, to arm itself with nuclear weapons and emerge as yet another global nuclear threat, in the Middle East, in Europe and throughout South America.
The Biden administration implemented its agenda to revive the Obama nuclear deal after US President Joe Biden assumed office in January 2021. Now, more than a year and half of negotiations seems to have benefited no one except the ruling and Islamist mullahs of Iran. The endless negotiations seem simply to have bought time for the mullahs, so that they could comfortably advance their nuclear program to their highest level ever. Not only has the Biden administration seen no urgency to change its disastrous path, it is actually redoubling efforts to for Iran talks, presumably after America’s mid-term election on November 8.
Iran’s regime, which has long claimed that it is not seeking to develop nuclear weapons because of the Supreme Leader’s reported “fatwa” forbidding such an act, has now changed its tone and is bragging that it has currently the ability to build a nuclear bomb. Kamal Kharrazi, Iran’s former foreign minister, pointed said to Al Jazeera recently that “It’s no secret that we have become a quasi-nuclear state. This is a fact. And it’s no secret that we have the technical means to produce a nuclear bomb.” He added, “In the past, and within just a few days, we were able to enrich uranium up to 60%, and we can easily produce 90% enriched uranium. But what we want is a Middle East without any nuclear weapons” – most likely meaning just their nuclear weapons, not anyone else’s.
Some Iranian leaders have also admitted that the regime’s nuclear program was always designed to manufacture nuclear weapons. Former deputy speaker of the Iranian Parliament Ali Motahari, for instance, disclosed in April:
“From the very beginning, when we entered the nuclear activity, our goal was to build a bomb and strengthen the deterrent forces but we could not maintain the secrecy of this issue.”
In addition, the former head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani, was the first Iranian official to acknowledge that his work was part of a “system” designed to develop nuclear weapons. “When the country’s all-encompassing growth began,” he said, “involving satellites, missiles and nuclear weapons, and surmounted new boundaries of knowledge, the issue became more serious for them.”
Throughout several rounds of the Biden-led negotiations between the P5+1 world powers and the Iranian regime, the ruling mullahs clearly bought time and sped up their nuclear program, increasing its uranium enrichment from 20% to 60%, conducting uranium metal research and development and production, and adding additional centrifuges.
In June, the day after reaching an agreement to extend the monitoring mechanism of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) by reinstalling surveillance cameras inside some of its nuclear sites, the ruling clerics announced that they would not allow the agency to see images from the devices. Now, even according to the IAEA, the Iranian regime has enough enriched uranium to build an atomic bomb.
The Institute for Science and International Security already warned in 2021: “Iran has enough enriched uranium hexafluoride (UF6) in the form of near 20 and 60 percent-enriched uranium to produce enough weapon-grade uranium, taken here as 25 kg, for a single nuclear weapon in as little as three weeks. It could do so without using any of its stock of uranium enriched up to 5 percent as feedstock. The growth of Iran’s stocks of near 20 and 60 percent-enriched uranium has dangerously reduced breakout timelines.”
The mullahs have also made it clear that they have no desire to answer the IAEA’s questions about uranium particles found at three undeclared nuclear sites. The UN agency warned in addition that the Iranian leaders have “not provided explanations that are technically credible in relation to the agency’s findings at those locations… The agency remains ready to engage without delay with Iran to resolve all of these matters.”
In spite of all these exhibits of malign intentions and more, the Biden administration has yet to change its path or take any tangible action to prevent what the US Department of State itself has called the worst state sponsor of terrorism, from advancing its nuclear program and becoming a nuclear state.
The Biden administration has even been ignoring a joint statement issued by the UK, France and Germany admitting that Tehran “has no credible civilian need for uranium metal R&D and production, which are a key step in the development of a nuclear weapon.”
The Biden administration needs to make it plain to Iran’s ruling mullahs that if Tehran advances its nuclear program further, severe military, political, diplomatic and economic options against Iran are on the table.
Economic sanctions, which will cut the flow of funds to the Iranian regime and the terrorist Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, must be imposed as well. The Biden administration also needs to stand firm against countries such as China, which are violating US sanctions by buying oil or trading with the Iranian regime.
It must be made unmistakably clear to the Iranian regime that the United States will not allow Iran’s current regime, a designated state sponsor of terrorism, to arm itself with nuclear weapons and emerge as yet another global nuclear threat, in the Middle East, in Europe and throughout South America.
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
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Azerbaijan and Armenia: War or Peace!
Omer Onhon/Asharq Al Awsat/September 24/2022
Military forces of Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a brief war with dozens of casualties on both sides. At a time when the war in Ukraine continues with major implications all over the world, the tension turned physical in the Caucasus has been extra concerning.
Armenia and Azerbaijan, which were both part of the former Soviet Union, engaged in a war soon after they declared their independence following the demise of the USSR. Armenia was victorious and captured large pieces of territory from Azerbaijan, including Nagorno-Karabakh. The war ended with a Russian-brokered ceasefire in 1994.
The following three decades have been marked by half-hearted diplomatic attempts to find a solution as well as occasional military clashes. The Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) led the way in efforts to find a solution to the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict.
In 1992, the OSCE established the Minsk Group (co-chaired by the US, Russia, and France) to deal with the issue. The group has not succeeded because of international power politics as well as Armenia’s unwillingness to engage as the country with the upper hand in the field and the belief of Azerbaijan that the co-chairs of the group were pro-Armenian.
Nothing changed until the six-week war in 2020 (the second Karabakh war) when, this time, Azerbaijan inflicted a crushing defeat on the Armenian side and claimed back almost all of its territories under occupation.
There are various factors that are part of the bigger picture in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization which was founded in 1992 by Russia as a tool to consolidate and safeguard its position in what it considers near abroad. Russian bases and troops are in Armenia to protect the country’s external borders.
During the second Karabakh war in 2020, Russia did not interfere as the Azeri offensive did not target Armenia but covered its own territories under Armenian occupation, namely Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia was also not unhappy with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, which it considered pro-western, coming under some serious pressure.
Eventually, the war ended, once again, with a Russia-brokered peace agreement. (The Statement by the President of Azerbaijan, Prime Minister of Armenia, and President of Russia agreed on November 10, 2020).
Articles 3 and 4 of this statement are about the deployment of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh. According to these articles, Russia will have 1,960 peacekeepers armed with firearms, 90 armored vehicles, and 380 motor vehicles. The Russian troops have been deployed along the contact line in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Lachin Corridor for a period of five years. That term can be automatically extended for subsequent five-year terms unless either Party notifies about its intention to terminate.
The terms of the Collective Security Treaty and agreement of November 2020 have provided legal basis and host nation consent for Russia in areas in what it calls its near abroad.
Then, there is the Turkish-Armenian aspect of the problem. Turks and Azerbaijanis are kin and their relations are phrased as “one nation, two states”. Turkey has always supported Azerbaijan and had an important role in the 2020 victory over Armenians.
Back in 1991, Turkey recognized Armenia as an independent state, at the same time it recognized other former parts of the Soviet Union. But the two countries have never established official diplomatic relations. Turkey closed its borders with Armenia in 1993 in response to its occupation of Azerbaijan territory.
After an unsuccessful try for reconciliation in 2009, Turkey and Armenia agreed to give it another try. In December 2021, after the second Karabakh war, both countries appointed special representatives. Since the beginning of the year representatives have met four times. Now, direct flights between the two countries have started. They have also agreed to take steps on other issues including the opening of borders for third-country citizens.
But overall, Turkey-Armenia relations are always closely knitted to the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. The previous attempt to reconcile failed, among other reasons, also because of Azerbaijan’s dissatisfaction with Turkey trying to reconcile with Armenia occupying its territories.
Referring to the most recent tension on the Azerbaijan-Armenia borderline, highest-level Turkish officials called on Armenia to stop provoking and focus on peace negotiations.
Iran is another important country in the region and has traditionally been closer to Armenia. Its policy toward Azerbaijan and Armenia is shaped by a number of factors, including its own Turkic/Azeri minorities which are estimated to make up around one-third of the country. Iran’s relations with Turkey and Russia is another important factor.
Regional transport and energy routes are also at the forefront of the considerations in determining Iran’s policies in the region. This can also be regarded in the framework of a competition between east-west and south-north routes of economic interaction.
Just before the recent fighting, there were some moves for a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The main element of such an agreement would be mutual recognition of borders, which would mean bringing to an end the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.
Among other things, an agreement of this kind would pave the way for bilateral and regional economic cooperation which is especially needed by Armenia whose economy is in dire straits.
In Azerbaijan, in particular, with regard to relations with Armenia, the nation is united behind President Aliyev. The Azeri population would back a peace agreement as they see the situation from the viewpoint of a victor’s peace.
It should be recalled that Azerbaijan is also one of the alternative gas suppliers to compensate for the lost Russian gas.
On the other side in Armenia and the wider Armenian world, there are obstacles. Despite losing Karabakh, Pashinyan won the elections in June 2021, but his election victory did not end the many serious challenges that he is facing.
Following the most recent fighting and setbacks, there have been fresh protests against him in Yerevan. Dashnaks, an ultra-nationalist political force that came into being in 1890, Karabakh Armenians. who push to capture and keep Karabakh forever and many in the Armenian diaspora, meaning Armenians living in the US, France, and other parts of the world, lead the ultra-nationalist agenda.
Despite all difficulties, now that Armenia is back within its internationally recognized borders and as Azerbaijan has recovered its occupied territories, the time seems ripe for the two countries to resume diplomatic work for a peace agreement. Statements and declared positions indicate that almost all major actors in the international community are supportive of this.

The European 'Way of Life' Isn’t Looking Too Sweet
Lionel Laurent/Asharq Al Awsat/September 24/2022
The European “way of life” has always been a vague concept, but — after Covid-19 — it chimed with a new generation looking for la dolce vita. Citigroup Inc. is one unlikely poster child. At its new office in Malaga, Spain, junior bankers can expect to be paid half the salary of their London peers — $100,000, reportedly — in exchange for the chance to live continentally. More traditional working hours, the Mediterranean, a lower cost of living and longer life expectancy — the kind of soft power Europe wants to be known for.
That’s the dream, anyway. But the economic reality facing Europe as Russia steps up its war in Ukraine looks very different. A multiyear shock to living standards looms large across countries such as Spain, Italy, France and especially Germany, as real wages fall faster than for their counterparts in the US, where life will look sweeter. Europeans will have to contend with less energy, less output, less disposable income, more inflation and higher import costs. Social unrest is a real risk. As Europe scrambles to unpick a German-led dependency on cheap Russian gas, hope is fading that the economic pain will be over by spring. Despite an admirable effort to fight Vladimir Putin’s gas shutoffs by building up reserves for the winter, most of that could be depleted by March. High energy prices and scarce supply will linger. Economists at Deutsche Bank AG and Barclays Plc respectively forecast a euro-area economic contraction of 2.2% and 1.1% next year.
Europe’s track record on containing inequality also faces a big test. Energy and food account for a much bigger share of spending for the bottom 20% than the top 20%. European governments have earmarked an estimated 500 billion euros ($496 billion) to cushion the impact of higher prices on consumers and businesses, according to think tank Bruegel, but that figure might just be the start. The UK, whose Brexit headaches hurt trade openness even before tanks rolled into Donetsk, will also have to spend big to protect its population.
Hence why some European firms now dream of an American quality of life. The US’s stable gas prices and government support for manufacturers have seen firms such as Volkswagen AG shift production there, while Tesla Inc. pauses German investment plans, according to the Wall Street Journal. Soaring energy costs have seen one in 10 German companies cut or interrupt production, according to one industry-association survey. This will ripple through trade partners’ supply chains inside and outside Europe, including in China — another place where the EU is reducing its dependency.
Sure, the US has seen inflation rise, but it also has the advantage of being a net energy exporter; two-thirds of its LNG exports through June went to Europe. The tumbling euro and pound show how Europe’s import bills are rising, from pricier energy to Apple Inc.’s price hikes. As French President Emmanuel Macron gravely tells his people that the age of “abundance” is over, Americans are spending more as gas prices fall. Those who make it to Paris have found luxury distinctly more affordable.
As apocalyptic as this sounds, the EU has endured recessions before. There’s still hope that governments will realize the best way of defending their citizens is through unity, by sharing energy and financial resources in a similar way to Covid.
But getting there will be tortuous. Governments around the world loaded up on debt during the pandemic, supported by loose monetary conditions that are now tightening fast. Even countries that avoided Germany’s energy errors — such as France with nuclear or Spain with renewables — are contending with their own issues of underinvestment and high debt piles. Rekindling solidarity will be hard.
There are worse places to be than Malaga in a crisis like this. But Europe’s soft-power advantage will likely be less about quality of life and more about building coalitions abroad and managing a wartime economy at home. Whatever the weather, Europe’s dolce vita is about to become a lot less sweet.

Is the Syrian triangle approaching a perfect storm?
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/September 24/2022
Israel is operating militarily in Syria with increasing frequency and boldness in its ongoing efforts to contain Iranian entrenchment there and prevent Tehran from using the country as a route for transferring advanced weapons and ammunition to its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah.
From an Israeli perspective, its northeastern neighbor has turned into a dangerous military playground and a “triangle of hostility” has developed between Israel, Iran and Hezbollah that is in danger of developing into a perfect storm.
According to SANA, the official Syrian news agency, during Israel’s latest military operations, carried out last week, an airstrike on Damascus airport killed five soldiers, injured scores and put runways temporarily out of commission, at least temporarily. The attack took place only weeks after a similar strike targeted the international airport in Aleppo, which also severely damaged runways.
What Israeli strategists have termed a “war between the wars” has become, with respect to Iran and its allies, a multidimensional confrontation, in terms of targets and theaters of operation, that are also affected by other developments in the international arena.
Israel’s foremost strategic priority remains the containment of Iran and, by extension, Hezbollah, which has become the most threatening arm of Tehran’s influence close to the Israeli border. Since the war broke out in Syria in 2011, Israel has carried out hundreds of airstrikes and other military operations inside the country, targeting government positions as well as allied Iran-backed forces, in particular Hezbollah and Iran's Revolutionary Guard. These forces are in the country to support the survival of the Assad regime but are also exploiting the situation there to establish a presence closer to the border with Israel.
To be sure, some of the main protagonists involved in this protracted, low-intensity confrontation not only harbor conflicting interests but are also affected by chronically unstable domestic political systems, leading to even more belligerence in conducting their foreign affairs.
While Israel has, for at least two decades and with only partial success, set a high premium on stopping the Iranian nuclear program — whether through diplomatic maneuvers to encourage economic and other sanctions on Tehran to cripple its economy, or clandestine operations and cyberattacks — it has also discovered that one of the major, and most immediate threats, originates from Iranian sponsorship and arming of hostile activities against Israel along its borders.
Israel’s foremost strategic priority remains the containment of Iran and, by extension, Hezbollah, which has become the most threatening arm of Tehran’s influence close to the Israeli border.
The most pressing issue to deal with is Hezbollah’s military build-up, which poses a threat to Israeli population centers and high-value strategic assets, and to which Israel’s best response is preemption and prevention, deterrence and, if worst comes to worst, massive retaliation.
As things stand, Israel’s gathering of what has proved to be very accurate intelligence, in addition to its superiority in the air, has enabled it to disrupt Hezbollah’s tireless efforts to stockpile an ever-increasing military arsenal, not only in terms of quantity but, even more disturbing, of sophistication.
However, Israel is far from able to thwart these efforts altogether. The very fact that a non-state actor is, with the support of another country, building up such menacing military capabilities with no transparency or accountability and constantly threatening a neighbor should deeply worry not only Israel but, first and foremost, Lebanon, and also the wider region as well as the international community.
Israel is perturbed not only by Iran’s proxies on its borders but also by the presence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in southern Syria, which could easily turn into an actual and menacing Iranian front against Israel.
Additionally, Israeli strategists hope that as the danger to the Assad regime recedes, the constant cost in terms of Syrian lives and the damage inflicted by military actions on Syrian infrastructure will eventually drive a wedge between Damascus and Tehran. However, this scenario, despite its intrinsic logic, might take longer to materialize than Israel would wish for.
Furthermore, as Russia becomes increasingly stuck in the quagmire of its war against Ukraine, it might not be able to afford to maintain the levels of attention and commitment to “policing” the skies and other military activities in Syria that it has managed so far.
Moscow has been double-dealing in the war in Syria, and in its relations with Iran more generally, allowing Israel to operate relatively freely in Syrian skies to limit Iran’s efforts to entrench its presence in the country, without giving Israel carte blanche to directly confront Iran and Hezbollah, who have been very useful to Russia in helping to keep the Assad regime in place.
It is an open question whether Russia’s massive miscalculation in Ukraine might lead Israeli decision-makers to calculate that their country can now operate more freely in Syria without angering Moscow.
The general view is that Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah’s demagogical threats to harm Lebanon’s southern neighbor have more to do with domestic Lebanese politics and efforts to keep his paymasters in Tehran happy than with having any actual intention or plan to carry out these threats.
He understands full well what Israel’s response would be should Hezbollah attack Israeli civilians or strategic interests, including the Karish gas field, where Hezbollah is attempting to hijack a maritime dispute between Lebanon and Israel to fashion itself as the defender of Lebanon’s territorial integrity.
However, considering the arsenal of sophisticated weapons that his organization has amassed and its improved ability to operate drones — which, according to London-based monitoring group the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, prompted Israel in July to completely destroy a drone factory near Damascus that was using Iranian technology — it would be foolish to ignore Nasrallah’s reckless rhetoric.
Israel’s confrontation with Iran and its proxies is constantly expanding and has both diplomatic and military facets. The former include Israel’s efforts to persuade Washington to refrain from signing an updated nuclear deal with Tehran under the current terms of the proposed agreement, which does not offer an alternative solution for stopping Iran’s march toward nuclear military capability, let alone preventing its subversive activities in the region.
Meanwhile, the regime in Tehran is not doing itself any favors with its president’s comments that “there are some signs” that the Holocaust happened but that the issue requires more research. Not only is this an offensive, insensitive show of utter ignorance, and above all a needless provocation, but it aggravates an already volatile situation in which both countries are confronting each other on multiple fronts.
It might be argued, repeatedly, that none of the sides in these hostile relations is interested in a full-blown confrontation — but their actions and rhetoric might eventually lead to one, regardless.
• Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media. Twitter: @YMekelberg

Why Italy’s election could undermine the war in Ukraine
Andrew Hammond/Arab News/September 24/2022
The general election in Italy on Sunday is primarily being viewed through the lens of domestic politics and economics but it could have a profound effect on Europe’s stance on the war in Ukraine.
It is not widely appreciated that Italy, a member of the G7 and G20, is a key outlier, in terms of public opinion about the conflict, in western Europe and virtually all of the EU.
A recent study by the European Council on Foreign Relations found that on the question of whether the conflict should be resolved quickly through a peace agreement, even if that requires Ukraine to make concessions, or whether the main goal is to punish Russia and restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity, Italy has one of the largest percentages of people in favor of a peace deal: 52 percent of the population compared with only 16 percent in Poland and 22 percent in the UK.
Meanwhile only 39 percent of Italians perceive Moscow as being the key obstacle to a peace agreement, while a surprisingly large 35 percent blame Ukraine. This is very different to other countries in Europe, such as the UK, where the comparable figures are 76 percent and 8 percent respectively.
These public opinion trends in Italy have been camouflaged under the strongly pro-Ukraine prime ministership of Mario Draghi. However, a new right-wing government — which polls suggest might well be in the pipeline in Sunday’s election — could be much more responsive to these popular sentiments, causing headaches for the current European unity against Moscow.
Ukraine and key countries in the Western alliance are concerned by the rhetoric of Italy’s right-wing parties.
The most likely new prime minister appears to be Brothers of Italy leader Giorgia Meloni, widely regarded as the heir to far-right wartime Italian leader Benito Mussolini. While she claims to be pro-Ukraine, there are significant concerns in Europe that a right-wing coalition led by her would have significantly less resolve in efforts to oppose Russia than the Draghi administration had.
Unlike some of her right-wing allies, Meloni has said she has no time for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Nevertheless, the right-wing parties she is anticipated to enter into a coalition with, especially the far-right League, have previously feted the Russian president and been lukewarm about sanctions against Moscow. While there might not be an immediate change in policy in Rome after the election, it will be hard for a new, right-wing government to ignore public opinion indefinitely. If the war continues for many more months there is a significant possibility that a Meloni-led government might eventually shift the country’s stance. Whether or not Meloni has been sincere in her statements so far, what is indisputable is that her potential coalition allies have been warm toward Moscow in the past. Forza Italia’s leader, Silvio Berlusconi, Italy’s former prime minister, has said Putin is like a younger brother and in 2015 described him as “undoubtedly the No. 1 among world leaders.”Matteo Salvini, leader of the far-right League, has described Putin as “the best statesman currently on Earth.” He has asserted that Western sanctions against Russia are not working and called for Europe to reconsider them. This is not a new stance: Before the war in Ukraine he called on Rome to make a positive reevaluation of the relationship between Italy and Russia.
To be sure, the League claims it will not break with Western allies if they continue to impose sanctions on Moscow. Salvini said: “If we get into government, will we change alliances? No. We remain deeply, proudly and firmly rooted in a free, democratic West that opposes aggression.”
The reason why many observers are nevertheless skeptical about the Italian right’s new, lukewarm support for Ukraine is that a similar, recent softening of views on other key international issues has been evident.
Take, for example, the EU. Many believe that Meloni’s recent, more moderate statements about the union are based on a political bet that her party will be better off electorally if there is a perception that it has shifted from the nationalist, euroskeptic far right.
A key early test of this might come with her wish to renegotiate the terms of Italy’s €200 billion EU COVID recovery plan funding, to help the country tackle high inflation and the energy crisis. Brussels could well resist this, at least in part, because the previous terms were agreed by the Draghi government.
In 2019, Meloni accused Brussels of engineering an “anti-democratic drift” and said its “nihilistic global elites are driven by international finance.” While some of her views have mellowed since then, she still seeks a “different Italian stance” toward Brussels from that of the Draghi government.
She added: “That does not mean that we want to destroy Europe, that we want to leave Europe, that we want to do crazy things.”
Yet she also remains president of the controversial, far-right pan-European Conservatives and Reformist Party, allied with Spain’s Vox and Poland’s Law and Justice parties.
Even more disturbing are the views of her allies, including Salvini, who called the EU a “den of snakes and jackals.” Yet, despite such statements, and his previous call for Rome to leave the EU, the League claims that it is the EU that has changed its views on Italy and not vice versa.
All of this taken together is why Ukraine and key countries in the Western alliance are concerned by the rhetoric of Italy’s right-wing parties. While key leaders such as Meloni and Salvini have moderated some of their views, there is a significant possibility that they will eventually shift the nation’s policy stance on key issues such as Ukraine.
• Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.

Salute the courage of Iran’s female protesters
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Arab News/September 24/2022
Iran’s leaders would prefer it if their people chanted “Death to America,” but instead protesters in towns and cities across the country are calling for “Death to the dictator.”
The spark, as in so many protest and revolutionary movements in history, was the murder of a young woman. Mahsa Amini, 22, from Kurdistan province, was traveling with her family to Tehran when she was picked up by the regime’s religious police for being insufficiently “modest” in her dress.
She was beaten by police in a van, and later her family were told she was in hospital. After a time in intensive care, in a coma, she died just before her 23rd birthday.
Amini’s treatment would cause outrage any country, but it has especial pertinence in Iran. For all of the show of the clerical government, which claims to be a modernising participant in the normal course of international affairs, in practice Iran is a place ruled by fear, in which women are obvious second-class citizens. Marked out by enforced customs of dress, forbidden to participate in society except on the regime’s terms, women suffer most of all Iranians. In a state led by the clerical direction of the Supreme Leader, enforced by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, there is no space for reform within the system.
In other countries (Sudan most notably in the past few years) women have been at the heart of protest movements that shake tyrannies. In Iran, the same appears to be true. Women are leading crowds of protesters, burning the form of veil they are forced by the state to wear, and defying the authority of the state to dictate how they must live.
Their bravery has captured international attention, and the hearts of many around the world — which makes the following hard to write: they will face immense resistance from a regime that will not permita reform movement to spring up without challenge. Sadly, violent reprisal is inevitable.
The Iranian state has form using open violence on its own streets, and will not stop at killing protesters. In waves of protests since 2019, often provoked by increases in food and fuel prices, the regime has killed thousands of demonstrators. The watchword of the state: do whatever necessary to drive people from the streets and send them back, fearful, into their homes. Big changes are possible in Iran — not caused by the ordinary rhythms of its politics, but by the movement of time and chance.
In Iran’s campaign of regional domination across the Middle East, it has perfected its tactics. In response to demonstrations in Iraq and Lebanon, not to mention Syria, Iranian-sponsored militias have used savage reprisals against local dissent.
It is not my intention to make the protesters lose heart, or to tell them their struggle is in vain. It is not, and living in Iran as they do, seeing what the clerical regime does to those who protest, by now they know well the costs of dissent and demonstration.
That they take to the streets regardless shows admirable courage, and is profoundly to the credit of those who risk their lives to protest against unjust laws enforced by a hated clergy and the Revolutionary Guards.
Big changes are possible in Iran — not caused by the ordinary rhythms of its politics, but by the movement of time and chance. Reporting from credible outlets indicates that the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, may be gravely ill. He has ruled since the death of Ruhollah Khomeini, and has pioneered and led decades of repression. If he were to die, Iran would have a small prospect of change. Perhaps the next supreme leader would be less inclined to injure and to kill.
But the protesters on the streets of Iran do not expect this. All they know is that the current laws are brutal and unjust, enforced by cruel men who kill first because they can, and kill again to keep their positions.
Iran’s female-led protesters know they cannot count on anything but their own actions to bring change to the country. That they choose to act in that knowledge says volumes for their courage, and for what people will risk to change the intolerable.
• Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington D.C. and author of “The Rohingyas: Inside Myanmar’s Genocide” (Hurst, 2017). Twitter: @AzeemIbrahim