English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For September 18/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.september18.22.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
You know that among the Gentiles those whom
they recognize as their rulers lord it over them, and their great ones are
tyrants over them. But it is not so among you; but whoever wishes to become
great among you must be your servant, and whoever wishes to be first among you
must be slave of all. For the Son of Man came not to be served but to serve, and
to give his life a ransom for many.’
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Mark
10/35-45./:”James and John, the sons of Zebedee, came forward to Jesus and said
to him, ‘Teacher, we want you to do for us whatever we ask of you.’And he said
to them, ‘What is it you want me to do for you?’And they said to him, ‘Grant us
to sit, one at your right hand and one at your left, in your glory.’But Jesus
said to them, ‘You do not know what you are asking. Are you able to drink the
cup that I drink, or be baptized with the baptism that I am baptized with?’They
replied, ‘We are able.’ Then Jesus said to them, ‘The cup that I drink you will
drink; and with the baptism with which I am baptized, you will be baptized; but
to sit at my right hand or at my left is not mine to grant, but it is for those
for whom it has been prepared.’When the ten heard this, they began to be angry
with James and John. So Jesus called them and said to them, ‘You know that among
the Gentiles those whom they recognize as their rulers lord it over them, and
their great ones are tyrants over them. But it is not so among you; but whoever
wishes to become great among you must be your servant, and whoever wishes to be
first among you must be slave of all. For the Son of Man came not to be served
but to serve, and to give his life a ransom for many.’
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on September 17-18/2022
Head of Mayyas chides Lebanese politicians
Deputies of Change delegation visits Maarab: We will not agree on a president
who does not receive the votes of two-thirds of Parliament members
Makari visits Rahi in Diman: We appeal to the blocs & parties not to make the
same mistake of boycotting the sessions which they have always...
Rifi says Tripoli positively impacted by recent army, security forces' field
measures
Mawlawi: We are determined to protect our societies within the framework of
strengthening joint Arab security
Nasrallah, Arslan meet
MoPH: 181 new Coronavirus infections, two deaths
Sayyed Nasrallah to ‘Israel’: Hezbollah’s Eyes and Missiles on Karish
Hezbollah slams amendment in UN peacekeepers’ mandate
Nasrallah says extraction from Karish a red line but test run not a problem
Over 1m Captagon pills seized at Beirut port
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on September 17-18/2022
Leaders head to UK for queen's funeral as public pays tribute
King Charles, William Greet Well-Wishers in Queen’s Queue
Seven killed in Israeli strike near Damascus airport
Iran’s supreme leader appears at religious event, following period of absence
Xi, Putin look to challenge world order at regional summit
Raisi orders probe of woman’s death in custody
Syria Kurds wrap up sweep of Daesh relatives camp
Influx of Iranians bolsters Iraq’s Arbaeen pilgrimage
Kadhimi: Iraq Witnessing the Most Difficult Crises since 2003
Iran police fire tear gas as protests erupt at funeral of woman arrested by
morality police
Poland opens new sea waterway to cut dependence from Russia
Ukraine war: Biden warns Putin not to use tactical nuclear weapons
Putin is facing pressure from Russia's hawkish nationalists who want all-out war
in Ukraine
Titles For The
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on September 17-18/2022
Is militancy the last resort of the oppressed?/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab
News/September 17/2022
Waning international cooperation in a changing world/Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab
News/September 17/2022
Turkey and the Gulf grow closer/Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/September 17/2022
Why Italy’s election matters to the world/Andrew Hammond/Arab News/September
17/2022
Thanks to the Biden Administration's and EU's Appeasement, Iran's Mullahs Go Big
on Cyberattacks/Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/September 17, 2022
The Rules of Israeli Escalation in Syria!/Akram Bunni/Asharq Al Awsat/September
17/2022
Different Agendas and Fronts in Syria/Omer Onhon/Asharq Al Awsat/September
17/2022
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on September 17-18/2022
Head of Mayyas chides Lebanese
politicians
Agence France Presse/September 17/2022
The choreographer leading a Lebanese dance troupe that shot to fame by winning
the 'America's Got Talent' TV contest castigated Lebanese politicians and called
for revolution upon landing back in Beirut Friday. Dozens of relatives offered
the Mayyas flowers at Beirut airport while thousands of Lebanese were glued to
their televisions to catch a glimpse of the performers who filled them with
pride and joy in a country wrecked by nearly three years of economic crisis. "We
don't need you (politicians), Mayyas made Lebanon proud without you help"
choreographer Nadim Cherfan told AFP in Beirut's airport, echoing the
frustration of many Lebanese who blame the political class for the country's
woes. Amid Lebanon's worst-ever economic crisis, the national currency has lost
more than 90 percent of its value on the black market since 2019 while poverty
and unemployment have soared. In a reflection of deep popular discontent, five
banks were stormed Friday by depositors seeking to unlock savings frozen in the
banking system after the economy crumbled. "People should break all the banks,
shake up the country and turn the table over politicians' heads," Cherfan said.
Mayyas this week snatched a $1 million prize and the chance to headline a Las
Vegas show for their extravagant performance featuring belly dancing, feather
fans and white orbs of light. Judges and viewers hailed the troupe for their
hypnotic and mesmerizing performances -- despite enduring hardships at home that
include long daily power cuts.
Lebanese authorities can barely provide citizens and residents with bare
necessities. Lebanon suffers from electricity cuts that last up to 22 hours as
the cash-strapped state can no longer afford fuel. "Your job is to feed the
hungry people and bring electricity," Cherfan said, addressing the politicians.
"As artists we are doing an artistic revolution," he added, in an apparent
reference to a 2019 anti-government protest movement that many Lebanese dubbed a
revolution.
Deputies of Change delegation visits Maarab: We will not
agree on a president who does not receive the votes of two-thirds of Parliament
members
NNA/Saturday, September 17, 2022.
Head of the "Lebanese Forces" Party, Samir Geagea, met in Maarab today with a
delegation of the “Deputies of Change” that included: MP’s Waddah Sadek, Melhem
Khalaf, Ibrahim Mneimneh, Najat Saliba, Marc Daou and Paula Yacoubian, in the
presence of members of the "Strong Republic" bloc, namely, MPs Ghassan Hasbani,
Melhem Riachy, Fadi Karam, Ghada Ayoub and George Akais. Following the two-hour
meeting, Saddek spoke on behalf of the delegation stating that the visit comes
within the framework of the change deputies’ meetings with parliamentary blocs
to explain their presidential initiative, hoping that their attempt to deliver a
new president of the republic with local Lebanese efforts will succeed. He
pointed out that the meeting’s attendees "unanimously agreed on the initiative's
points and the necessity of realistically entering the parliament through the
agreement of at least 86 deputies to bear the national responsibility entrusted
to them," stressing that the change deputies will not approve of a president who
does not receive two-thirds of the Parliament Council members' votes. Saddek
considered that the daily deteriorating situation in the country increases the
responsibility that falls on their shoulders to save the country by delivering a
president who meets the specifications of the “Deputies of Change” Initiative.
He also referred to the beginning of change yesterday “by stopping the
endorsement of a state budget that does not meet any of the conditions set to
move to a better stage.”
“What happened yesterday in the legislative session confirmed that change starts
from within the parliament, where the main battle lies through changing the
approach adopted in it..." he said. Saddek disclosed that the “Deputies of
Change” will present upcoming Monday the results of their meetings held so far
with different parliamentary blocs, “in preparation for starting the second
phase that may be the most difficult as it will witness the discussion of
candidates’ names and the selection of the best and most consistent with the
presidential initiative."He reiterated the need today for "a president who has
the ability to run the country and has a strong personality that allows him to
preserve Lebanon's sovereignty and launch a comprehensive reform plan."In turn,
MP Hasbani welcomed "the fellow guests and their initiative to converge on the
common points that could produce rescue solutions for the country, especially in
choosing a new president of the republic capable of taking solid and correct
positions to lift the country out of its deteriorating state, which may worsen
further if we do not succeed in delivering such a president to lead the rescue
operation at the executive and legislative levels.”He added: "We come from
different backgrounds, but we agree on the urgent need for rescue and on other
points of the state and institutions' logic, the importance of preserving,
restoring and rebuilding them, and the principle of fighting corruption and
having equality among all Lebanese in terms of rights, duties and citizenship."
Hasbani reaffirmed that "the awaited presidential election is pivotal," adding
that the "Lebanese Forces" has defined the specifications of the future
president, “who must have a clear and transparent position, be courageous and
bold and able to take solid and difficult decisions.”
Makari visits Rahi in Diman: We appeal to the blocs
& parties not to make the same mistake of boycotting the sessions which they
have always...
NNA/Saturday, September 17, 2022.
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi, received today at the
patriarchal summer residence in Diman, Caretaker Information Minister Ziad Al-Makari
accompanied by Brigadier General Antoine Al-Makari, with talks touching on
latest hour issues and the most recent bank incidents.
Following the meeting, Al-Makari said: "We were honored today to visit the Diman,
this region that is dear to us, and we discussed the latest developments
particularly what happened yesterday in the banks. There is certainly a fear
that this would spread to everything, and it is so unfortunate to be reflecting
this bleak image..."He affirmed that speeding -up the election of a president of
the republic was at the top of their discussion during the visit, stressing that
the Patriarch advocates the quick election of a new president within the
constitutional deadlines. “We share his opinion and viewpoints, hoping that a
president will be elected as soon as possible," he added. The Information
Minister believed that "the problem does not stop at holding a session to elect
a president, but rather with the constitutional political game that allows for
the disruption of the quorum by some parties.”
He added: “If this obstruction continues, that means there will be no election
of a president and the issue may be prolonged, and therefore the time that
passes amidst the vacuum, God forbid, will be fatal for Lebanon. Therefore, we
appeal to all parties and parliamentary blocs, especially the blocs that were
criticizing those that were boycotting the sessions, not to make the same fatal
mistake.”Over the possibility of forming a new government, Al-Makari said: "I
feel it is possible to form a government soon. Of course, it is not a new
government, but rather a reviving of the existing government with some minor
amendments."Regarding his opinion of what happened during the budget discussion
session, Al-Makari said: “Unfortunately, it was something expected, but it is
pathetic that we were discussing the 2022 budget while we are at the gates of
the year 2023. From here, we appeal to officials not to procrastinate because
every day that passes without progress is fatal for Lebanon.”
Rifi says Tripoli positively impacted by recent
army, security forces' field measures
NNA/Saturday, September 17, 2022.
Member of Parliament, Major General Ashraf Rifi, on Saturday, praised the
efforts of the army and internal security forces in maintaining security and
stability in the city of Tripoli. "The field measures recently taken by the army
units and the security forces have restored stability to the city and put an end
to thieves and acts of tampering with its security," he said, pointing to the
remarkable disappearance of all manifestations of security evasion from
shootings to armed robberies and security violations.He added: "Tripoli, which
has always been an incubator environment for the army and continuously betting
on legitimate state institutions, has been positively and appreciatively
affected by these measures." Rifi concluded by thanking the Lebanese army
leadership and heads of the security apparatuses for these measures, "with the
hope that they will continue because of the safety and reassurance they have
created for the people and their positive reflection on the economic movement in
the city."
Mawlawi: We are determined to protect our societies
within the framework of strengthening joint Arab security
NNA/Saturday, September 17, 2022.
Caretaker Interior and Municipalities Minister, Bassam Mawlawi, re-tweeted his
earlier tweet today on the seizure of a quantity of Captagon at Beirut Port,
confirming that “coordination and cooperation between the Lebanese Ministry of
Interior and the Kuwaiti Ministry of Interior, represented by the General
Administration for Drug Control, facilitated the seizure of a large quantity of
Captagon that was to be smuggled into the State of Kuwait...We are determined to
protect our societies within the framework of promoting joint Arab security.”In
turn, the Kuwaiti Ministry of Interior commended in a tweet through its official
account "the joint cooperation between the Kuwaiti and Lebanese Ministries of
Interior, which resulted in the seizure of one million Captagon pills before
they were smuggled into the State of Kuwait."
Nasrallah, Arslan meet
NNA/Saturday, September 17, 2022.
Hezbollah Secretary-General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, received the head of the
Lebanese Democratic Party, Talal Arslan, accompanied by former minister Saleh
Al-Gharib and a member of the Political Council, Mr. Liwa Jaber, in the presence
of the political assistant to the Secretary-General, Hajj Hussein Al-Khalil.
Attendees discussed the latest political developments and the general situation
in Lebanon and the region, in addition to many files of interest to the Lebanese
at this stage.
MoPH: 181 new Coronavirus infections, two deaths
NNA/Saturday, September 17, 2022.
Lebanon has recorded 181 new Coronavirus cases and two deaths within the last 24
hours, as reported by the Ministry of Public Health on Saturday.
Sayyed Nasrallah to ‘Israel’: Hezbollah’s Eyes and
Missiles on Karish
Marwa Haidar/Al-Manar English Website/Saturday,
September 17, 2022.
Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasralah reiterated on Saturday a
warning to the Israeli enemy, saying that the Lebanese resistance’s eyes and
missiles are on Karish, the disputed gas field between Lebanon and the Zionist
entity. Addressing Hezbollah mourning ceremony held in Baalbek on Arbaeen
(occasion marking 40 days on martyrdom anniversary of Imam Hussein), Sayyed
Nasrallah stressed that Hezbollah’s red line is the start of oil and gas
extraction in Karish. His eminence revealed that Hezbollah has delivered a
behind-the-scenes message to the Israeli enemy, warning that the Tel Aviv regime
is to face a true trouble if the extraction starts. Meanwhile, the Hezbollah S.G.
hailed as historic this year’s unprecedented participation in Arbaeen pilgrimage
in Iraq despite high temperature and many other obstacles. Sayyed Nasrallah also
recalled the Sabra and Shatila massacre which was committed by pro-Israeli
militias in Lebanon in 1982 and killed thousands of Lebanese and Palestinian
people. In this context, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that majority of Palestinian
people now believe that the course of negotiation with the Israeli enemy is
futile and that the only option to restore the land is the resistance.
“Despite all forms of pain they had witnessed during their journey of captivity,
Imam Zein Al-Abidine and Sayyeda Zeinad lost neither faith nor hope, they
remained firm in face of Yazid and his forces,” Sayyed Nasrallah addressed
mourners in a ceremony held by Hezbollah in Baabeck on the occasion. “The lesson
which we take from Sayyeda Zeinab (AS) is that faithful people have no room for
weakness or surrender.” “More than 20 million pilgrims walk to Imam Hussein
nowadays in Iraq. The number means that there are 20 million hearts that adore
Imam Hussein (AS).” His eminence then described the Arbaeen pilgrimage this year
as historic, slamming mainstream media over ignoring such unprecedented
gathering in the history of humanity. “Iraqis are people of generosity and
hospitality, they have been for weeks serving pilgrims of Imam Hussein (AS) with
love and passion.”“Throughout years, all attempts to undermine the Arbaeen
pilgrimage have been foiled,” Sayyed Nasrallah said, citing car bombs carried
out by Takfiris in Iraq since 2003.
Sabra and Shatila Massacre
Recalling Sabra and Shatila massacre, which was committed bin September 1982,
Sayyed Nasrallah said some well-known Lebanese sides carried out the crime,
backed by Israeli occupation. “Some 1,900 Lebanese and 3,000 Palestinians had
been martyred in the massacre. Sabra and Shatila would be the greatest massacre
in the history of Israeli-Arab struggle.” Sayyed Nasrallah then addressed
Lebanese parties who often slam Hezbollah’s beliefs and say their noted sentence
‘our Lebanon is different from yours’. “To those who committed Sabra and Shatila
massacre and accuse us of believing in the so-called culture of death we say:
This massacre is some of your culture. Culture of death means Sabra and Shatila
massacre while culture of life means liberating south without even killing a
hen,” Sayyed Nasrallah said, referring to the 2000 Liberation of south Lebanon
from Israeli occupation and the peaceful behavior of Hezbollah fighters in
dealing Israeli collaborators in the area.
Palestinian Resistance in West BankSayyed Hasan Nasrallah
Sayyed Nasrallah also recalled the 1993 Airport Road massacre which killed
nearly ten Lebanese who were protesting against Oslo accords and voicing
rejection to all forms of talks with the Israeli enemy. In this context, his
eminence noted that the majority of Palestinian people today believe that the
course of negotiation with ‘Israel’ is futile, stressing that the only option to
restore the occupied land is the resistance. “The US guarantees protected
neither the Lebanese nor the Palestinians in Sabra and Shatila.”Sayyed Nasrallah
then hailed the Palestinians for their continuous and different acts of
resistance against Israeli occupation, especially the “courageous operations in
the West Bank.”
Hamas and Syria
The Hezbollah S.G. hailed as respected and right the decision made by Hamas
Palestinian resistance movement to restore ties with Syria. “Syria has always
been the rock for Palestine, Al-Quds and Palestinian people.”“The resistance is
the only hope and the only way to restore rights of the region’s people. What we
want for the people of this region is to unite under the banner of
resistance.”Hezbollah Delivered Strong Message to ‘Israel’.Israeli gas platform
off occupied Palestinian coast.Sayyed Nasrallah reiterated that extracting the
oil and gas off Lebanese shore is a golden chance to cope with the current
economic crisis. “We won’t allow the Israeli enemy to extract oil and gas from
Karish before restoring Lebanon’s legitimate rights.” The Israeli officials said
that the extraction will take place in September but they delayed the process,
the Lebanese resistance leader stated. “Hezbollah’s red line is the start of the
Israeli extraction of gas in Karish.”His eminence revealed here that Hezbollah
has recently delivered a strong message to the Zionist entity, warning behind
the scenes that the Tel Aviv Regime will be facing a real trouble in case it
started gas extraction in the disputed field. “Our aim is to enable the Lebanese
government from investing in its maritime wealth, and this issue is not related
to any affair,” Sayyed Nasrallah said, responding to accusations that Hezbollah
has been trying to relate the maritime border talks to Iran nuclear deal talks.
His eminence then affirmed that all threats made by Israeli officials “won’t
turn a hair” of Hezbollah, saying that both ‘Israel’ and US knows very well that
the Lebanese resistance is adamant regarding threats he made on the maritime
border affair. Sayyed Nasrallah noted that Hezbollah has been calm in the latest
weeks in a bid to give opportunity for talks, but stressed that the “eyes and
missiles are on Karish.”
UNIFIL and Lebanon
Sayyed Nasrallah, meanwhile, commented on the UN Security Council Resolution
2650 which renewed mandate of the UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in
Lebanon) for one year and gave the international troops the right to act on the
ground away from the Lebanese army.UNIFIL in south Lebanon “The Lebanese who was
behind the issuance of such resolution is either an ignorant or a
conspirator.”“Such resolution violates Lebanon’s sovereignty and open the door
for major dangers in the area south of Litani River.” “If they want to act on
the ground away from the Lebanese State and the Lebanese Army then they are
pushing things in a way that contradicts their interest,” Sayyed Nasrallah
stressed. On the other hand, Sayyed Nasrallah called for the formation of a new
government and for holding the presidential vote on time, warning that such
delays worsen the situation and lead to chaos. In this context, the Hezbollah
S.G. warned that latest bank holdups in Lebanon need to be solved by the
Lebanese authorities, calling for establishing a crisis cell to deal with the
repeated attacks. “Despite all forms of challenges, our hope in Allah is great.
We have to work together, and the victory is to come Inshallah (God willing),”
Sayyed Nasrallah concluded.
Hezbollah slams amendment in UN peacekeepers’ mandate
AFP/September 17, 2022
BEIRUT: The leader of Lebanon’s Shiite armed group Hezbollah on Saturday
condemned a recent amendment in the mandate of the UN peacekeeping force
deployed along the border with Israel. The UN Security Council on August 31
extended the mandate of the UNIFIL peacekeeping force for a period of a year but
with a slight modification in the wording. Hassan Nasrallah took issue in a
televised speech with a part of the resolution that states the peacekeeping
force “is allowed to conduct its operations independently.”The UNIFIL force,
which was first deployed more than four decades ago, has routinely coordinated
its patrols and movements in its area of operations in the south with the
Lebanese army. “This is a trap that the Israelis have set for Lebanon over many
years,” Nasrallah said, calling the resolution “a violation of Lebanese
sovereignty.”Nasrallah lambasted the Lebanese government for allowing the
resolution through and warned that it could give rise “to great dangers in the
area south of the Litani” river. On September 13, UNIFIL reacted to Hezbollah
concerns by assuring it was still working closely with the Lebanese army, a
statement Nasrallah welcomed in his Saturday speech.
UNIFIL was set up in 1978 to monitor the withdrawal of Israeli forces after they
invaded Lebanon in reprisal for a Palestinian attack. It was beefed up in 2006
after Israel and Hezbollah fought a 34-day war, and the 10,500-strong force is
tasked with monitoring a cease-fire between the two sides.
Israel and Lebanon are still technically at war.
Nasrallah says extraction from Karish a red line but
test run not a problem
Naharnet/September 17, 2022
Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Saturday announced that his group is
giving a chance to the negotiations aimed at finding a sea border deal between
Lebanon and Israel but warned that gas extraction by Israel from the Karish
field would be a “red line” that would necessitate a response. “Lebanon is
before a golden chance that might not be repeated,” said Nasrallah about the
offshore gas resources, in a televised address marking Arba'een, an annual
Shiite religious observance that marks 40 days after the death of Imam
al-Hussein in the Battle of Karbala (680 CE). “The Zionist (Israeli) officials
have said that extraction from Karish would happen in September, but they later
announced postponing extraction from Karish and this is good, and we don't care
about the reason, be it technical or not,” Nasrallah added. “The red line to us
is that there should not be extraction from Karish,” he said. Nasrallah also
revealed that Hezbollah “sent a very strong message” upon learning that there
would be a test run at the Israeli-operated Karish gas field, adding that Israel
clarified that there would be no real extraction from Karish but rather a
process of sending gas from Israel to the gas rig. “We've been calm over the
past weeks because we were giving a real chance to negotiations… Our objective
is to enable Lebanon to extract oil and gas and we are not seeking a problem,”
Nasrallah added. He also noted that Hezbollah’s “calm” period coincided with a
flurry of threats from Israeli officials. “Israeli officials should not suspect
that they have scared us,” Nasrallah stressed. “We are following up on the
negotiations and all our eyes are on Karish and our missiles are locked on
Karish,” he warned. “As long as extraction has not started, there is a chance
for solutions,” Nasrallah went on to say. “We will not allow that oil and gas be
extracted from the disputed Karish field before Lebanon obtains its rightful
demands,” Nasrallah emphasized. “I believe the Israelis, Americans and Europeans
have enough information about the seriousness of the resistance’s stance and
that this is not psychological warfare nor a joke,” Hezbollah’s leader added.
“Things are calm now… but if a confrontation is imposed (on us), it will be
totally inevitable,” Nasrallah said. Separately, Nasrallah stressed the
importance of holding the presidential vote within its constitutional timeframe.
“We support the efforts to find consensus over a president … but there should be
not vetoes,” he added.
He also hoped the president and the PM-designate “will be able to form a
government soon,” revealing that Hezbollah has “high hopes in this regard.”“All
parties must offer concessions to form a government,” Nasrallah said.
Over 1m Captagon pills seized at Beirut port
Najia Houssari/Arab News/September 17/2022
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s security services seized over 1 million Captagon pills hidden
in a shipment of grapes at Beirut port, it was announced on Saturday. Interior
Minister Bassam Mawlawi said that the illicit haul was heading to Kuwait via
Sudan, and that investigations are underway to “pursue the dealers.” Lebanese
authorities insist they have stepped up efforts to combat the illegal trade in
Captagon after Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia, issued warnings about a rise in
the number of attempts to smuggle the stimulant. In 2021, the Kingdom suspended
fruit and vegetable imports from Lebanon after seizing more than 5 million
Captagon pills hidden in a shipment of pomegranate bound for the country.
Authorities said that in the past six years, there have been attempts to smuggle
up to 600 million narcotic pills from Lebanon to Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, calm
returned to Lebanese streets after at least five customers using pellet guns or
toy weapons stormed banks across the cash-strapped country on Friday demanding
access to withheld savings. The Association of Banks in Lebanon said it was
closing all branches for three days to protest against the attacks and protect
banking staff. However, there are fears of widening chaos if protesters take to
the streets following the banks’ closure next week. One political observer, who
declined to be named, said: “Depositors are storming banks, people are carrying
weapons, individual fights are turning into armed clashes, while families and
clans are firing at each other in rural areas, even in villages affiliated with
Hezbollah.”Security services are all but powerless to act because their members
are “suffering under the economic collapse just like everyone else,” the
observer said. In an already febrile atmosphere, Hezbollah chief Hassan
Nasrallah condemned a recent amendment in the mandate of the UN peacekeeping
force deployed along the border with Israel. The UN Security Council on Aug. 31
extended the mandate of the UNIFIL peacekeeping force for a period of a year,
but with a minor modification in the wording. Speaking at a religious ceremony
in the Bekaa, Nasrallah warned Israel against extracting gas from the offshore
Karish field amid maritime border talks between Lebanon and Israel. Israel has
announced it will start work at the site next month. “We cannot allow the
extraction of oil and gas from the disputed Karish field before Lebanon gets its
rightful demands. We draw a line here. If any extraction is carried out, trouble
will ensue. Our goal is for Lebanon to be able to extract oil and gas,” he said.
“This issue is not related to any other issues with Israel. No threat from the
enemy affects us. The Lebanese state is concerned with the negotiations; we only
observe. We are keeping an eye on Karish and our missiles are guided in its
direction.” In a televised speech, Nasrallah took issue with a part of the UN
Security Council resolution to extend the UNIFIL mandate that states the
peacekeeping force “is allowed to conduct its operations independently,” calling
the resolution “a violation of Lebanese sovereignty” and lambasting the Lebanese
government for allowing it through. The Hezbollah leader described Lebanese
officials involved in the mandate discussions as “either ignorant or complicit
because this resolution could give rise to great dangers in the area south of
the Litani River.” Domestically, Nasrallah hoped that a government would soon be
formed, adding: “If we only have a caretaker government and end up with a
presidential vacuum, chaos will prevail.”He supported calls for a consensus, but
said: “It is necessary to have a president with the largest possible political,
parliamentary and popular base to be able to fulfil his legal and constitutional
role.”
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on September 17-18/2022
Leaders head to UK for queen's
funeral as public pays tribute
Agence France Presse/September 17/2022
World leaders begin gathering in London from Saturday for the funeral of Queen
Elizabeth II, as princes William and Harry are set to lead a vigil of her
grandchildren at her coffin. The queen's death on September 8 aged 96, after a
record-breaking 70 years on the throne, has sparked an outpouring of emotion.
Members of the public braved waits that at one point were estimated to be up to
24 hours and chilly night-time temperatures to view her coffin. Lines have
snaked for miles along the River Thames since Wednesday when her coffin was
brought to the UK parliament complex to lie in state. Police are mounting
Britain's biggest-ever security operation for Monday's funeral, as hundreds of
dignitaries including U.S. President Joe Biden are set to jet in. The queen's
successor, King Charles III, will meet on Saturday with the prime ministers of
the Commonwealth realms -- the 14 former colonies over which he now reigns in
addition to Britain. From Australia and New Zealand to Canada, they have
formally proclaimed him their new sovereign. But republican movements are
gaining ground, and efforts to keep them all in the royal fold will likely be a
feature of his reign.
Charles on Friday wrapped up his maiden tour as monarch to the four nations of
the United Kingdom with a visit to Wales, part of an operation dubbed "Spring
Tide" to launch him in his new role. Large crowds in Cardiff chanted "God save
the king" as he shook hands with well-wishers following a multi-faith service in
Llandaff Cathedral, and at Cardiff Castle. Charles met Welsh First Minister Mark
Drakeford, an avowed republican, and there was isolated booing on the streets
after the new monarch was quick to declare his son William the new Prince of
Wales.But Drakeford said questions over the future of the monarchy were "a
footnote to the dominant feelings of the day".
'Tide of emotion'
Back in London, Charles held a 15-minute vigil with his siblings -- Princess
Anne, Prince Andrew and Prince Edward -- around their mother's casket on Friday
night. They stood, eyes lowered and silent, while members of the public filed
past. Andrew -- stripped this year of his royal titles over a sex assault
scandal -- was allowed to wear military uniform for the only time during the
11-day mourning period. The Duke of York, as he is also known, flew Royal Navy
helicopters during the 1982 Falklands War with Argentina. The vigil will be
repeated on Saturday evening by eight of the queen's grandchildren, including
the new heir to the throne Prince William and his estranged brother Harry. Harry
-- who served two tours with the British army in Afghanistan -- has reportedly
also been given special permission to wear his military uniform despite no
longer being a working royal. The move appeared to be the latest olive branch
offered to Harry by the royals after he and his wife Meghan launched accusations
of racism in interviews from their new home in the US. The personal sorrow of
the queen's family has been playing out in the glare of intense international
attention. But the queen's youngest son Edward said: "We have been overwhelmed
by the tide of emotion that has engulfed us and the sheer number of people who
have gone out of their way to express their own love, admiration and respect."
Beckham joins queues
The most striking manifestation of public reverence for the queen has been the
vast queues of the hundreds of thousands of people wanting to bid her farewell.
Officials warned on Friday that expected queuing time had reached over 24 hours
and briefly paused admission when the lines reached capacity. Those paying their
respects included former England football captain turned fashion icon David
Beckham, who spent 12 hours to reach Westminster Hall. "It's very emotional, and
the silence and the feeling in the room is very hard to explain," he told
reporters after filing past the coffin. "We're all there to say thanks to Her
Majesty for being kind, for being caring, for being reassuring throughout the
years." June Nayler, 76, a retired former local authority worker from Milton
Keynes in central England was undaunted by the long wait she faced as she joined
the back of the line in Southwark Park. "I'm here now and going to make it all
the way -- it's my duty to do it," she told AFP. "I'm just overcome by the
crowds and number of people turning out."The public have until Monday morning to
view the coffin before the queen is honored with Britain's first state funeral
in nearly six decades. The spectacular ceremony at Westminster Abbey -- expected
to be watched by millions around the globe -- will see 142 sailors pulling the
gun-carriage bearing her lead-lined coffin. It will be attended by more
than 2,000 guests, but leaders from countries at loggerheads with the UK such as
Russia, Belarus and Afghanistan have not been invited. A private burial will
follow at Windsor Castle after a committal service.
King Charles, William Greet Well-Wishers in Queen’s
Queue
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 17 September, 2022
King Charles and his son William shook hands and greeted well-wishers who had
queued for hours in central London on Saturday to file past the coffin of Queen
Elizabeth, asking people how long they had been there and whether they were warm
enough. To cheers of "hip, hip, hurrah" and shouts of "God save the King",
Charles and William spoke to mourners near Lambeth Bridge, as they neared the
end of the mammoth line to see the lying-in-state in the historic Westminster
Hall. On Friday night, Charles joined his three siblings - Princess Anne and
Princes Andrew and Edward - in a silent vigil at the coffin while their eight
children, including William and Harry, will form their own ceremonial guard
later on Saturday. "She wouldn't believe all this, she really wouldn't," William
was heard telling one man of the late queen, who died on Sept. 8 at the age of
96. "It's amazing."One woman told Charles it had been "worth the wait" and
others wished him well and cheered as he moved down the line. People continued
to flock to central London, adding to the hundreds of thousands who have filed
past the coffin in a solemn stream to honor Britain's longest-reigning monarch -
a testimony to the affection in which she was held. Ahead of the state funeral
at Westminster Abbey on Monday, world leaders also starting arriving in the
British capital. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Australian Prime
Minister Anthony Albanese were among the dignitaries to pay their respects on
Saturday while New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was seen curtsying to
the coffin on Friday.
US President Joe Biden was expected to go to the lying-in-state on Sunday. The
queen's oak coffin has been mounted on a purple-clad catafalque, draped in the
Royal Standard and with the bejeweled Imperial State Crown on top. On Saturday,
Charles met leaders of the 14 countries where he is head of state such as
Canada, Australia, and Jamaica after meeting the governors-general - the people
who represent the monarch in overseas realms - at Buckingham Palace.
Security operation
London's police force has described the funeral as the biggest security
operation it has ever undertaken as prime ministers, presidents and royals come
together and huge crowds throng the streets. The king visited police
headquarters on Saturday to thank emergency services workers involved in the
planning. Underscoring the risks, police said one man had been detained and
arrested after a witness told Sky News he "ran up to the queen's coffin".
Footage showed a man being pinned to the ground by police officers and taken
away. By 5 p.m. (1600 GMT), Britain's culture ministry said the waiting time to
reach the lying-in-state was up to 11 hours. Inside the silent hall, some
mourners wept, many were tearful while current soldiers and veterans saluted
their former commander-in-chief. Others in the line fell to their knees. At one
point the government had warned it would pause entry to the queue if demand
became too high. New friendships, acts of kindness and the struggles of standing
in line for hours, sometimes in the cold overnight, have come to define what has
become known as just "the queue". Film-maker Matthew West described how a
military man was offered the chance to get to the front but declined. "That was
the highlight. The lowlight was when we stood still for two hours and I lost the
will to live." There has been an outpouring of emotion across the country and 10
days of choreographed events since the queen died at her summer estate in the
Scottish highlands after 70 years on the throne. The queen's coffin was at first
laid at rest in Edinburgh before being flown south to London.
Funeral plans
The queen's children have described being overwhelmed by the reaction to their
mother's death. The state funeral, to be attended by nearly 100 presidents and
heads of government, is likely to be one of the biggest ceremonial events ever
held in Britain. Soldiers took part in early morning rehearsals in Windsor,
where the queen's coffin will be taken after the funeral at Westminster Abbey.
Marching bands playing music and Grenadier Guards, who wear a tall bearskin hat
on ceremonial duties, were seen marching down the High Street in preparation.
Liz Kelshall from Leatherhead, southern England, said she had brought her two
children to Windsor so they would never forget the queen. "It's really important
for them to grow up and remember this and it's important for us as a family to
come and show some respect for an amazing woman," she said. Later on Saturday,
the focus will switch to the younger royals and their vigil. William and his
brother Harry, who have grown apart in recent years after Harry moved with his
wife Meghan to the United States, will both stand guard at the coffin in
military uniform. Harry served two tours of duty with the British Army in
Afghanistan but so far has appeared in processions in morning suits after he
lost his honorary military titles when he stepped back from public royal duties.
The two brothers will be joined by their cousins - Peter Phillips and Zara
Tindall, the children of Princess Anne, Princesses Beatrice and Eugenie, the
children of Prince Andrew, and Louise and James, the children of Prince Edward.
Seven killed in Israeli strike near Damascus airport
Agence France Presse/Saturday, 17 September, 2022
An Israeli airstrike near Damascus airport killed five Syria soldiers on
Saturday, Syrian state media said. "The aggression led to the death of five
soldiers and some material damage," Syria's official news agency Sana quoted a
military source as saying. The strike carried out at approximately 00:45 am
(2145 GMT Friday) came "from the northeastern direction of Lake Tiberias,
targeting Damascus airport and some points south of Damascus," it added. The
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor confirmed that the strikes
killed five Syrian soldiers, and said two Iran-backed fighters were also killed.
The monitor, which relies on a wide network of sources inside Syria, said Israel
targeted sites where Iran-backed groups are stationed near Damascus airport and
in the Damascus countryside. An Israeli strike in the countryside around the
capital Damascus and south of coastal Tartus province killed three soldiers last
month.
In June, Israeli airstrikes put Damascus airport out of service for nearly two
weeks. In the past month, Israeli airstrikes have twice targeted Aleppo airport.
The rights monitor said at the time that those strikes had targeted weapons
depots belonging to Iran-backed militias. Since civil war erupted in Syria in
2011, Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes against its northern neighbor,
targeting government troops as well as allied Iran-backed forces and Hezbollah
fighters. While Israel rarely comments on individual strikes, it has
acknowledged carrying out hundreds. It says its air campaign is necessary to
stop arch-foe Iran gaining a foothold on its doorstep.
Iran’s supreme leader appears at religious event,
following period of absence
Arab News/September 17, 2022
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei received a group of visitors during
a religious ceremony on Saturday, his first public appearance for more than two
weeks, and urged them to act with patience and perseverance. State television
showed Khamenei, 83, standing as he spoke in a steady voice to his audience
sitting on the floor about the importance of Arbaeen, a ceremony that marks the
end of a 40-day mourning period for the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, Imam
Hussein. Two sources close to Khamenei denied to Reuters on Friday that his
health had deteriorated, responding to questions about his health. Khamenei had
not appeared in public since he met followers in Tehran on Sept. 3, sparking
rumors on social media that he was ill. Khamenei told the gathering on Saturday
that believers should rely on the Qur'an, the Muslim holy book, which calls for
patience when facing hard times — an apparent reference to Iran’s economic woes
as the country faces US sanctions. “Patience means perseverance, it means
resisting, not getting tired, not feeling yourself at a dead end,” Khamenei
said, holding a microphone. “Take the right way and take others along to the
right path.” Iran’s supreme leader was on bed rest under observation after
falling ill last week, the New York Times had reported on Friday. Khamenei
“canceled all meetings and public appearances last week after falling gravely
ill,” the paper said, citing four unnamed sources with knowledge of Khamenei’s
health situation.
The 83-year-old leader had surgery last week at a home clinic for bowel
obstruction after suffering “extreme stomach pains and high fever”. The US paper
said that Khamenei, who took over as supreme leader in 1989, was too weak to
even sit up and is being monitored by a group of doctors, though his condition
had improved from last week. (With Reuters)
Xi, Putin look to challenge world order at regional
summit
Agence France Presse/September 17, 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping looked to rally
Asian leaders behind a new "international order" as they met Friday for a summit
aimed at challenging Western influence. But cracks in summit solidarity quickly
appeared, with India's prime minister telling Putin it was "not the time" for
the conflict in Ukraine. Adding to the tension, the forces of two countries --
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan -- engaged in fierce border clashes while their
leaders were in attendance. Washington said remarks from Putin at the summit on
addressing "concerns" about Ukraine from China and India increased pressure on
Russia to end its military offensive. The meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO) in ex-Soviet Uzbekistan brought Putin and Xi together with
the leaders of SCO members India, Pakistan, and four Central Asian nations, as
well as the presidents of Iran and Turkey. Putin and Xi met on Thursday for
their first face-to-face talks since Russia sent troops into Ukraine in
February, and on the Chinese leader's first trip abroad since the early days of
the coronavirus pandemic. The summit was put forward by the Kremlin as an
alternative to "Western-centric organizations," at a time of increasing pressure
on Moscow over Ukraine and growing anger in Beijing over US support for Taiwan.
Xi told the gathered leaders it was time to reshape the international system and
"abandon zero-sum games and bloc politics". They should "work together to
promote the development of the international order in a more just and rational
direction," Xi told a joint session.
'New centers of power'
Putin hailed the increasing influence of countries outside the West, slamming
what he called "instruments of protectionism, illegal sanctions and economic
selfishness." "The growing role of new centers of power who cooperate with each
other... is becoming more and more clear," Putin said. The summit has been
Putin's first major international outing since Moscow sent troops into Ukraine
in February, sparking a conflict that has left thousands dead and seen Russia
hit with waves of economic sanctions. All did not go smoothly for the Russian
leader. In their talks, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Putin:
"Excellency, I know today's time is not a time for war."Putin told Modi he knew
of India's "concerns" about the conflict, echoing language he had used with Xi
the day before. "We will do our best to end this as soon as possible," Putin
said, while accusing Kyiv of rejecting negotiations. "I think what you're
hearing from China, from India, is reflective of concerns around the world about
the effects of Russia's aggression on Ukraine," U.S. Secretary of State Antony
Blinken said in Washington. "I think it increases the pressure on Russia to end
the aggression."
- Putin in 'no hurry' on Ukraine -
But Putin later said Russia was in no rush to finish the military action.
"Our offensive operations in Donbas itself do not stop. They are going at a slow
pace... the Russian army is occupying newer and newer territories," Putin told a
press conference at the end of the summit. "We are not in a hurry... there are
no changes." The SCO -- which also includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan
and Uzbekistan -- was set up in 2001 as a political, economic and security
organization to rival Western institutions. The group is far from fully united.
The leaders of the Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan were forced to meet at the summit
to order their forces to withdraw after deadly clashes along their disputed
border raised fears of all-out conflict. Putin and Xi both also met with Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who told the assembled leaders that efforts were
being made "to finalize the conflict in Ukraine through diplomacy as soon as
possible."Putin told Erdogan, who has been a key broker in limited deals between
Russia and Ukraine, that Moscow was keen to build closer ties with Turkey and
was ready to "significantly increase" all exports to the country. For Putin, the
summit was an attempt to show that he is not fully isolated on the global scene,
at a time when his forces in Ukraine are facing major battlefield setbacks. For
Xi, it was an opportunity to shore up his credentials as a global statesman
ahead of a pivotal congress of the ruling Communist Party in October, where he
is widely expected to secure an unprecedented third term as president.
Raisi orders probe of woman’s death in custody
AP/September 17, 2022
The official website of Iran’s judiciary, Mizan.news, said that Tehran’s chief
prosecutor, Ali Salehi, ordered a police team of forensic pathologists to
examine the medical aspects of the case
TEHRAN: Iran’s president has ordered a probe in the case of a young woman who
slipped into a coma while in custody in Tehran and died, state media reported on
Friday. The police have said she suffered a heart attack. According to the
state-run IRNA news agency, President Ebrahim Raisi asked Interior Minister
Ahmad Vahidi to “investigate the cause of the incident with urgency and special
attention.” According to reports on social media, Mahsa Amini, 22, was detained
earlier this week by the so-called “morality police” after officers apparently
found fault with her hijab.
The headscarf has been compulsory for women in Iran since after the 1979
revolution and members of the morality police enforce the strict dress code.
BACKGROUND
Women shop for scarves of Iranian scarf brand
According to reports on social media, Mahsa Amini, 22, was detained earlier this
week by the so-called ‘morality police’ after officers apparently found fault
with her hijab. Police said on Thursday that Amini was taken to a hospital after
she allegedly had a heart attack while in custody. News websites quoted an uncle
of Amini as saying she had no history of heart disease. Police said she was
arrested on Tuesday. The official website of Iran’s judiciary, Mizan.news, said
that Tehran’s chief prosecutor, Ali Salehi, ordered a police team of forensic
pathologists to examine the medical aspects of the case.
Iran’s morality police has been criticized in recent years over its treatment of
people, especially young women, and videos uploaded on social media have shown
officers forcing women into police vehicles. Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei,
has supported a softer attitude toward women who do not comply with the official
dress code. But hard-liners have called for harsh punishment and even lashes,
arguing that allowing women to show their hair leads to moral decay and the
disintegration of families. The judiciary has in recent years urged people to
inform on women who do not wear the hijab. Since 2017, after dozens of women
publicly took off their headscarves in a wave of protests, the authorities
adopted tougher measures. Amini’s case has drawn condemnation from Iranian
celebrities, athletes and other public figures. Former President Mohammad
Khatami said the behavior of the morality police was a “disaster” while
outspoken politician and former lawmaker Mahmoud Sadeghi called on Khamenei to
speak publicly about Amini’s case. Popular former soccer player, Ali Karimi,
tweeted that while children of high-ranking officials are leaving the country,
“our children are dying.” Hossein Mahini, another former soccer player, said in
a tweet, addressing the morality police: “We hate you.”
Syria Kurds wrap up sweep of Daesh relatives camp
AFP/September 17, 2022
m which the extremist organization was planning its resurgence
BEIRUT: Kurdish forces in northeast Syria on Saturday announced the end of a
three-week operation against Daesh group supporters inside the overcrowded and
increasingly lawless camp of Al-Hol. They arrested more than 200 people,
including dozens of women, discovered tunnels used by extremists and seized an
arsenal of weapons. The internal security forces of the area’s semi-autonomous
Kurdish administration carried out the massive sweep of the camp, which houses
tens of thousands of relatives of suspected Daesh members. The number of murders
inside the camp had risen recently, as had fears that Al-Hol was becoming the
hub from which the extremist organization was planning its resurgence. “The
operation was launched following the increasing crimes of killing and torture
committed by Daesh,” a Kurdish statement said. The UN says more than 100 people
have been murdered since the start of 2021 in Al-Hol, which lies in a remote
area near the border with Iraq and is home to Syrian and Iraqi families, as well
as around 10,000 of others, mostly women and children, originating from further
afield. The Kurdish security forces said Daesh had relied heavily on women and
children in Al-Hol, most of whom had been there for more than three years, to
spread the group’s extremist ideology. The last rump of the organization’s
once-sprawling “caliphate” was retaken in March 2019, causing an exodus among
the proto-state’s last denizens. The families of suspected Daesh fighters were
herded into Al-Hol, a de facto detention camp which Kurdish forces are tasked
with guarding and running. Many countries, such as France which was among the
biggest purveyors of foreign fighters to Daesh, have been reluctant to
repatriate their citizens. Kurdish forces said they made a total of 226 arrests,
uncovered 25 “tunnels and trenches,” confiscated assault rifles, a
rocket-propelled grenade and 25 hand grenades. The internal security forces also
said they freed two women from Iraq’s Yazidi minority who were being held by
female Daesh sympathizers inside the camp, as well as four other women who were
found chained. Among the other discoveries were many communication devices used
to coordinate with Daesh cells outside Al-Hol, organize money transfers and plan
attacks, the statement said. The Kurdish authorities reiterated their call on
foreign countries to repatriate their nationals, arguing the world had
“underestimated the seriousness of the threats in the camp.”“We also call on the
relevant international parties to note the organic relationship between the
Turkish intelligence services and Daesh cells,” it said. The internal security
forces, also known as Asayish, charged that one of the many NGOs active inside
Al-Hol, the Turkey-based Bahar, was complicit in funnelling weapons and money
into the camp.
Influx of Iranians bolsters Iraq’s Arbaeen pilgrimage
AFP/September 17, 2022
KARBALA: Twenty million pilgrims, swelled by a record influx of Iranians, have
converged on the Iraqi shrine city of Karbala to mark Arbaeen, an annual Shiite
festival that climaxes on Saturday. It is one of the world’s biggest religious
gatherings, observed in Iraq and neighboring Iran, both Shiite majority
countries. The event marks the end of a 40-day mourning period for the killing
of Imam Hussein — a founding figure in Shiite Islam and grandson of the Prophet
Muhammad — by the forces of the caliph Yazid in 680 AD. So far, there has been
little sign of the intra-Shiite political tensions that have prevented Iraq
forming a new government since elections nearly a year ago. “It’s as if I’ve
arrived in paradise,” said Najme, a 37-year-old primary school teacher, wrapped
in a black chador and her feet clad in sneakers. Along with her husband and
parents, she is among more than three million Iranians attending the pilgrimage
in Karbala, a new record, according to the Iranian government spokesman. The
family drove from the Iranian clerical center of Qom to Najaf — a second Shiite
holy city in Iraq — and then walked 80 kilometers (50 miles) to Karbala, home to
the shrines of Imam Hussein and his brother, Abbas. Najme’s mother Latifa could
not disguise her joy. “I keep calling the family back in Iran — I send them
photos and videos, to share the atmosphere with them,” she said. Iranian
pilgrims have flocked to the event this year in part due to Baghdad and Tehran
waiving visa requirements for travel between the two countries since late last
year. The influx of pilgrims has filled hotels and sent room prices soaring.
Some have even resorted to bedding down on pavements. The pilgrims press forward
on the esplanade, and among alleys that snake around the two mausoleums that
sparkle with gold and blue under the unrelenting sun. At night, processions are
bathed in neon light. Men dressed in black jump up and down on the spot, beating
their torsos to the rhythm of religious chants blaring from loudspeakers. Some
cry hot tears, others slap their faces, to mark the killing of Imam Hussein
centuries ago in the Karbala desert. Among the 20 million pilgrims — up from 17
million last year — are five million foreign visitors, according to figures
released by Baghdad. Iran is of course the key external source. “Arbaeen is an
opportunity... for working class Iranians to travel” and celebrate what is both
a religious and social occasion, said Alex Shams, who is researching a doctorate
on the politics of Shiite Islam at the University of Chicago. “It’s almost
impossible for Iranians to get visas to other countries,” he noted, and US
sanctions have made the Iranian rial almost worthless. “Iraq is really one of
the few countries that... they can afford to visit.” Before Saddam Hussein was
overthrown in the US-led invasion of 2003, Shiites in Iraq were forbidden from
overtly commemorating Arbaeen and indiscreet worshippers risked prison. But
nowadays, the event flourishes and Shams notes that Iran actively promotes the
pilgrimage, “despite the fact it is very much an Iraqi grassroots thing.”Tehran,
and other political actors too, seeks to benefit from the pilgrimage’s
popularity to “promote their own brand — to kind of coopt it,” Shams said.
Kadhimi: Iraq Witnessing the Most Difficult Crises since
2003
Baghdad - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 17 September, 2022
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi on Saturday said that Iraq is witnessing
one of the most difficult political crises since 2003, but affirmed
determination to overcome it. “We keep no secret from our people that Iraq is
passing through a political crisis that could be one of the most difficult since
2003. But we have hope and determination to find solutions and overcome the
crisis in order to pass towards a new stable and safe Iraq,” said Kadhimi. His
remarks came at the end of the ceremony commemorating the 40th anniversary of
Imam Hussein. Addressing Iraq’s political parties, he urged them to focus on the
interest of Iraq and Iraqis, “they deserve to sacrifice for them,” he said. The
PM extended his gratitude to the security forces and their efforts in tracking
down terrorists. Under strict security measures, Shiites from Iraq and other
Arab and Islamic countries commemorated the 40th anniversary of Imam Hussein in
Karbala, Baghdad.
Iran police fire tear gas as protests erupt at funeral
of woman arrested by morality police
AP/September 17, 2022
TEHARN: Iranian police fired tear gas on Saturday to disperse a protest rally in
the country’s west following the funeral ceremony for a young woman who died
while in police custody in Tehran earlier this week, the semi-official Fars news
agency reported. The police have said that 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who was
detained on Tuesday after Iran’s so-called “morality police” found fault with
her headscarf, or hijab, had died of a heart attack. The police have also
released closed circuit footage from the police station, which they say shows
the moment Amini collapsed. A relative has said she had no history of heart
disease. According to the Fars report, after Amini’s funeral in the city of
Saqez, about 460 kilometers (280 miles) west of the capital, Tehran, some
protesters gathered in front of the governor’s building, chanting slogans. The
report did not elaborate. After police showed up and fired tear gas, the
protesters dispersed. There was no immediate information about any injuries.
Videos posted on social media Saturday purported to show protesters in Saqez
chanting anti-government slogans but the Associated Press could not authenticate
the videos or confirm the location in the footage. Amini’s death triggered an
outcry against the morality police from celebrities and prominent figures on
social media. Iran’s judiciary launched an investigation into her death. The
headscarf has been compulsory for women in Iran since after the 1979 Islamic
Revolution and members of the morality police enforce the strict dress code. The
force has been criticized in recent years over its treatment of people,
especially young women, and videos uploaded on social media have shown officers
forcing women into police vehicles. Since 2017, after dozens of women publicly
took off their headscarves in a wave of protests, authorities have adopted
tougher measures. However, the reformist Etemad Melli political party urged
Iran’s parliament to cancel the law on the mandatory hijab and suggested
President Ebrahim Raisi do away with the morality police. The Kasra hospital in
Tehran, where police took Amini after she collapsed and slipped into a coma,
said she was brought in without vital signs. Oscar-winning Iranian filmmaker
Asghar Farhadi, who rarely reacts publicly to events in Iran, expressed sorrow
and called Amini’s death in custody a “crime.”Iranian hard-liners have called
for harsh punishment and even lashes of women who disobey the hijab law, arguing
that allowing women to show their hair leads to moral decay and the
disintegration of families. The judiciary has in recent years urged people to
inform on women who do not wear the hijab.
Poland opens new sea waterway to cut dependence from
Russia
WARSAW, Poland (AP)/September 17, 2022
Poland’s top leaders are taking part in the opening Saturday of a new - albeit
unfinished - canal that they say will mean ships no longer must secure Russia’s
permission to sail from the Baltic Sea to the ports of the Vistula Lagoon. The
event was timed to mark 83 years since the Soviet invasion of Poland during
World War II and to demonstrate symbolically the end of Moscow’s say on the
economy and development of a region that borders Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave.
The government says the waterway gives Poland full sovereignty in the
northeastern region, which needs investment and economic development. The canal,
built at a cost of almost 2 billion zlotys ($420 million), cuts across the
Vistula Spit, east of Gdansk, and was designed to allow ships to sail from the
Baltic Sea and the Bay of Gdansk to Elblag and smaller ports of the lagoon
without obtaining authorization to travel through Russia's Strait of Pilawa. It
also shortens the Baltic-to-Elblag route by some 100 kilometers (54 nautical
miles). Polish President Andrzej Duda, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and
right-wing ruling party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski plan to sail Saturday across
the Vistula Spit to open the canal. Small ships and yachts are expected to be
allowed in on Sunday. However, cargo ships cannot use the passage until the
approach to the Port of Elblag is deepened to 5 meters (16 feet). The work is
expected to cost 100 million zlotys ($21 million), which is a source of
controversy between the national government and city authorities.
Ukraine war: Biden warns Putin not to use tactical
nuclear weapons
Alys Davies - BBC News/September 17, 2022
US President Joe Biden has warned Russia not to use chemical or tactical nuclear
weapons in the war in Ukraine. Speaking during an interview with CBS News, Mr
Biden said such action would "change the face of war unlike anything since World
War Two". He would not say what response the US would make to the use of such
weapons. Russian President Vladimir Putin put the country's nuclear forces on
"special" alert following its invasion of Ukraine in February. He told defence
chiefs it was because of "aggressive statements" by the West. Nuclear weapons
have existed for almost 80 years and many countries see them as a deterrent that
continues to guarantee their national security. Russia is estimated to have
around 5,977 nuclear warheads, according to the Federation of American
Scientists. It, however, remains unlikely that it intends to use such weapons.
Tactical nuclear weapons are those which can be used at relatively short
distances, as opposed to "strategic" nuclear weapons which can be launched over
much longer distances and raise the spectre of all-out nuclear war. Comparison
of the estimated number of warheads held each of the nine nuclear-armed
countries.
Comparison of the estimated number of warheads held each of the nine
nuclear-armed countries. In an interview with CBS' 60 Minutes correspondent
Scott Pelley in the White House, President Biden was asked what he would say to
President Putin if he was considering using weapons of mass destruction in
Ukraine. "Don't, don't, don't," was President Biden's response. Mr Biden was
then asked what the consequences would be for Mr Putin if such a line was
crossed. "You think I would tell you if I knew exactly what it would be? Of
course, I'm not gonna tell you. It'll be consequential," Mr Biden responded.
"They'll become more of a pariah in the world than they ever have been. And
depending on the extent of what they do will determine what response would
occur."The war in Ukraine has not gone as well as the Kremlin had hoped. In
recent days, Ukraine says it has recaptured more than 8,000 sq km (3,088 sq
miles) of territory in the north-eastern Kharkiv region. Despite the apparent
setback, President Putin has insisted that Ukraine's successful
counter-offensive will not stop Russia's plans of continuing its operations in
the east of the country.
Putin is facing pressure from Russia's
hawkish nationalists who want all-out war in Ukraine
Jason Corcoran/Business Insider/September 17/2022
President Vladimir Putin is facing an increasing threat from Russian
ultra-nationalist figures who are using their huge platforms on Telegram to
demand a far more aggressive military mobilization in Ukraine. For months, Putin
appeared to have established broad support for the war, while successfully
drowning out dissent. But following a series of military defeats, culminating in
the devastating rout in Ukraine's eastern Kharkiv region, the president is
facing pressure on multiple fronts. Breaking with the official line, the
ultra-nationalists have increasingly become a thorn in the side of Putin's
administration, causing Putin's carefully assembled 'power vertical' to splinter
from the inside.Last week, Igor Girkin, a leading ultra-nationalist who led the
pro-Russian separatists in 2014 trying to wrest the Donbass region from Kyiv's
control in 2014, told his 581,000 subscribers on Telegram that Defense Minister
Sergey Shoigu should be executed by firing squad and that Russia should launch
strikes on Ukrainian power plants. Several people, including Girkin, have called
for tactical nuclear strikes to be used on various targets in order "to drive 20
million refugees to Europe." The tactic was encouraged again on Russia's
state-run Channel One, the leading propaganda outlet, by Igor Korotchenko, a
military expert and editor of Russia's National Defense magazine. Others have
accused the Kremlin of concealing "bad news" about how poorly the war has been
going for Russia — a criticism that, until now, has largely been denied a
hearing in the heavily muzzled Russian media. This week, Ukrainian officials
said they have retaken more than 3,000 square miles of Russian-held territory
since the start of September. The State Duma usually rubber stamps whatever law
Putin wants and is not noted for rocking the boat. So it surprised many
commentators on Monday when Mikhail Sheremet, one of its members from the ruling
United Russia party, said publicly that "full mobilization" in Ukraine was
necessary for victory. Attacks like that have meanwhile emboldened others from
across the political spectrum to speak up in a way that seemed impossible just a
few months ago. Earlier this week, liberal councilors in Moscow and St.
Petersburg signed a petition demanding Putin's resignation. Putin's spokesman,
Dmitry Peskov, has responded directly to the growing clamor and the
nationalists' anger at Russia's retreat, saying that Russians as a whole
continue to support the president.
"The people are consolidated around the decisions of the head of state," said
Peskov. "As for other points of view, critical points of view, as long as they
remain within the law, this is pluralism, but the line is very, very thin, one
must be very careful here."Since first winning the presidency in 2000, Putin has
folded all of Russia's key institutions, from the media to the church and the
courts, into a power vertical where the Kremlin's bureaucratic machine stands at
the top. The idea was to smother any glimmer of democracy and the influence of
the oligarchs by making sure all of the key decisions went through him.
Pressure from all sides
Putin's edifice of power has withstood pressure for over 20 years from protests
inspired by liberals, ecologists, pensioners and Siberians but now it is facing
its biggest threat. As the nationalists' most prominent figurehead, Igor Girkin
has been among the most searing in his criticism of Russia's military strategy.
His comments have ranged from pessimistic, suggesting a belief that Russia could
be defeated, and bravado, as he's sought to cajole Putin into taking more
aggressive action. Addressing his followers last week, Girkin said: "The war in
Ukraine will continue until the complete defeat of Russia. We have already lost;
the rest is just a matter of time.' Then, on Wednesday, Girkin said that Kremlin
officials were living "on the Planet of the Pink Ponies" and that Russia must
commit to total war rather than entertain any illusions that the conflict could
end with "peace on parity terms.""Just do not stop at the objects on the Left
Bank [of the Dnipro river]. Kyiv and Western Ukraine must be extinguished no
less, and even more ruthlessly," he said. Aleksandr Kots, a pro-Kremlin war
journalist with 600,000 followers, used his Telegram channel on Wednesday to say
that the Kremlin was hiding terrible news from the Russian public. "We need to
do something about the system where our leadership doesn't like to talk about
bad news, and their subordinates don't want to upset their superiors," he said.
Girkin and Kots, as well as war bloggers such as Boris Rozhin and German
Kulikovsky, are believed to be untouchable due to the krysha — protection —
afforded them by figures in the senior echelons of the military and security
services. Ramzan Kadyrov, the tyrannical leader of the volatile Chechen
republic, is the wild card in the deck. Speaking on his Telegram channel on
Thursday, Kadyrov said: "There is no need to wait for the Kremlin to declare
martial law. Each regional governor is quite capable of preparing, training and
staffing at least 1,000 volunteers." Chechnya has already prepared a law
allowing the drafting of men born in 1995-2004, while Kadyrov has called on
regional governors to carry out "self-mobilization."Even the Communists are
acting up after two decades of obsequious obedience. Their veteran leader
Gennady Zyuganov is seemingly frustrated with toeing the official line 26 years
after allegedly having the presidency stolen from him by Russia's first
president Boris Yeltsin. , Speaking on Tuesday, Zyuganov said: "Most of all, we
need maximum mobilization of our strength and resources" in order to win what he
called a "war" against the US, Europe and NATO. A day earlier, his Communist
comrade Mikhail Matveev caused a stir when the suggested that governors and
deputies sign up for the front as volunteers. The Governor of Khabarovsk Mikhail
Degtyarev, who had been attending the Eastern Economic Forum, complained to the
Russian news outlet RIA Novosti that he would like to fight in Ukraine as a
volunteer, but could not vacate his position. Degtyarev is a member of the
Liberal Democratic Party, a loyal Kremlin faction formerly led by the notorious
ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovksy, who died in April. Residents in his Far
East region quickly created a petition "to help the Governor fulfil his dream
and go fight in the Donbass." The petition has already been signed by tens of
thousands of people, but Degtyarev has yet to resign.
'Harming the the future of Russia and its citizens'
Criticism of the war effort is also coming from the liberal side of the
political spectrum although many of its senior leaders are either in exile or
have already been rounded up. Earlier this week, St. Petersburg councillor
Ksenia Thorstrom shared a petition for Putin's resignation that had been signed
by two dozen fellow liberal councillors in Moscow and St. Petersburg. "We, the
municipal deputies of Russia, believe that President Vladimir Putin's actions
harm the future of Russia and its citizens," it said. A week ago,
representatives from St Petersburg's Smolninskoye region, went further and
called on federal lawmakers to open a treason case Putin in order to remove him
from office for launching the invasion of Ukraine. Unlike the response to other
political factions, the reaction by the authorities against the liberals has
been swift. The Smolninskoye District Court ruled that the municipal council
should be dissolved and subsequently charged the deputies with "discrediting"
Russia's military. Councilor Nikita Yuferev, who was fined and threatened with
prison after attaching his name to the petition, tweeted: "Now the Governor of
St. Petersburg will decide whether to disperse us to hell or not." Yet the
public discourse has changed dramatically since the war began seven months ago.
Back in April, Aleksei Gorinov, a municipal councilor from one of Moscow's
districts, was jailed for seven years after he lightly criticized the invasion
of Ukraine during a discussion about a children's drawing contest.
A fractured alliance
The Kremlin has had tricky relations with fringe ultra-nationalists who are
typically difficult to control despite the authorities best efforts to
infiltrate them. The National Bosheviks, a movement led by the writer and
dissident Eduard Limonov, had to be confronted in 2001 for plotting to invade
Kazakhstan in a bid to foment a rebellion there by ethnic Russians. Limonov, who
was arrested, denied the charges. Since 2014, nationalists like Girkin had been
advocating for Russia to conquer more territory to create "Novorossiya"—a
notional territory that encompasses eight Ukrainian oblasts, including the
Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and much of eastern and southern Ukraine. Putin's
decision to invade Ukraine, supposedly to protect Russian speakers in the
eastern provinces and to encourage what he called an urgent "de-Nazification" of
the country, realized one of the nationalists' top priorities. A city street is
seen with burnt tanks littered about. Burned Russian tanks litter Vokzalna
Street in Bucha, where a column of Russian military vehicles making their way
toward Kyiv was destroyed by Ukrainian forces; Bucha, Ukraine, April 4, 2022.
The bodies of more than 450 people killed during Russia's occupation of Bucha
have been discovered.Erin Trieb for Insider. Nothing more demonstrated to the
ultra-nationalists that Putin was wedded to their cause than when he convened a
Security Council meeting in February, just days before the invasion, to rubber
stamp recognition of the Donbass and Crimea as independent states.
Putin all but declared war on Ukraine by warning that Kyiv would bear
responsibility for "ensuring bloodshed" if they did not stop the violence
against ethnic Russians in the east of its country. In extraordinary footage
broadcast from a Kremlin marble hall, each member of the Security Council was
compelled by Putin to say on the record whether they supported the controversial
decision. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin squirmed uncomfortably and muttered
that he did, while Sergey Naryshkin, head of Russia's fearsome foreign spy
service, stammered nervously and got confused after being grilled by Putin. The
political theater and the subsequent invasion convinced the ultra-nationalists
that Putin and the ruling elites were now firmly on their side.
The democratic stooge
The ways in which the debate in Russia has shifted in recent days and weeks can
be seen on state-controlled television talk shows. Months ago, calling the
Russian action in Ukraine a "war," rather than using Putin's phrase of "special
military operation" could have landed a commentator in trouble. But these days,
lawmakers make that point openly. Panel discussions on stations like NTV and
Rossiya-1 have long featured a token democratic stooge who is kicked from pillar
to post for being a NATO apologist, or in the pocket of the US. However,
panelists and hosts are now struggling or unable to silence that lone voice,
who's now seen as the only one making any sense, in the face of Russia's
overwhelming military setbacks. In a clip that has gone viral, liberal Moscow
municipal deputy Boris Nadezhdin appeared on a NTV talk show and declared that
"it's absolutely impossible to defeat Ukraine using those resources and colonial
war methods with which Russia is trying to fight." Nadezhdin, a one-time ally of
murdered opposition leader Boris Nemtsov, called for peace talks aimed at
halting the war before being interrupted by Sergey Mironov, head of the
pro-Kremlin Just Russia party. Mironov declared that there can be no
negotiations with "Zelenksy's Nazi regime," and that the only option is that
it's destroyed. With that, the show suddenly erupted into a genuine debate, with
another participant seemingly backing Nadezhdin by highlighting the military's
failings. Contrast that clip with an appearance made by Nadezhdin on the same
show in April, when the other participants ganged up on him for brazenly
suggesting that the Soviet Union had "occupied Czechoslovakia and Eastern
Europe." "We didn't occupy anyone, we freed them," one of the panelists corrects
Nadezhdin. By Thursday, leading propagandist Vladimir Solovyov was wondering
aloud why Nadezhdin hadn't been thrown in jail. One of his guests on the
Rossiya-1 channel bravely weighed in, suggesting there must be many people who
think like Nadezhdin if he's free "to say it on a federal television station."
To this, Solovyov, who has been sanctioned and had his Italian villa seized,
quipped that if Russia is democratic, it may be a sign that the Kremlin's
control over the media — a key pillar in Putin's power vertical — is weakening.
It's not unheard of in Russia for radical hawks to use the media to test the
waters for radical policies. What's different about this moment is that a
growing number of these figures are now off-leash — openly undermining Putin and
warning that he will be replaced if he does not order more extreme action
against Ukraine. The widespread purging of liberals and journalists that
occurred in the early days of the Ukraine war is relatively straightforward in
Russia. But cracking down on ultra- nationalists is more dangerous and may have
dire consequences – especially if Russia loses the war. Meanwhile, as the
Russian economy is slowly grinding towards Brezhnev-era zastoi (stagnation),
ordinary Russians are fed up with rising grocery prices, being on unpaid leave
from their jobs, and being blocked from traveling to the West."People are
keeping their heads down and trying to block out the news," said Maxim, who
declined to give his full name out of fear for his security. "Some of my friends
have lost their jobs, and everyone is tightening their belts. Any mobilization
would be the tipping point because nobody here wants to fight this stupid war –
apart from the raving nationalists."
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on September 17-18/2022
Is militancy the last resort of the oppressed?
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/September 17/2022
Ronen Bar, who heads Shin Bet, Israel’s internal security service, is regarded
as a level-headed official and not one inclined to hyperbole: Therefore, his
warning of the deteriorating situation in the West Bank must be taken seriously.
To be sure, attributing the current outbreak of attacks by Palestinian militants
on Israeli targets to the weakening of the Palestinian Authority and the fading
influence of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas holds some water. However,
perhaps because he tries to avoid entering the political minefield, or because
he suffers from the same eclipse of reality that too many Israelis, especially
those in position of power, have been suffering from, his portrayal of the
situation tells only one side of the story. It ignores the bigger picture of
Israel’s contribution to the despair among Palestinians and the loss of
legitimacy of the Palestinian Authority, and the fact that the wish for security
is not one-sided and should not be treated like a public good enjoyed
exclusively by Israelis, while Palestinians live in insecurity.
There is something between naivety and sheer Israeli chutzpah in expecting —
demanding, in fact — that the Palestinian Authority stop militancy against
Israel in the absence of any political horizon, and when so many Palestinians
are being killed by Israeli security forces every single month. This is not
about Ronen Bar — he did not create the situation, although he is playing a
central role in perpetuating it. At the end of the day, each of his predecessors
knew that all they could do during their time in the service was to stick a
bandaid on a heavily bleeding wound. As a matter of fact, even this is
inaccurate; they might have saved the lives of many Israelis, but at a heavy
price to the Palestinians, which is immoral and in the long-term compromises the
chances of peaceful coexistence.
By their cooperation, the Israeli and Palestinian security forces have
successfully prevented many terrorist attacks, but the window for political
solutions is now all but closed, and the occupation is entrenched, stimulating
resentment among Palestinians against both Israel and the Palestinian Authority,
and it is this which is making a major contribution to the current escalation of
violence.
Israel should not be surprised that security cooperation is being carried out
with increasing reluctance, and is seen by most Palestinians as simply
collaboration with the occupying forces. Such cooperation had its own logic back
in the hopeful Oslo days, as a confidence-building measure aimed at containing
those who would resort to violence in opposing the nascent peace process, one
based on a two-state solution that should have long ago ended the occupation,
provided security for everyone between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean
Sea, and offered a just and fair solution the Palestinian refugee issue.
As long as the oppressive occupation continues, to expect that no Palestinians
will resort to militancy is a view bordering on the delusional. Thirty years
later nothing of this dream has survived, and while Israelis, thanks to decades
of security cooperation with the Palestinian Authority, have enjoyed improved
security, in this year alone so far 81 Palestinians, among them 15 minors, have
been killed in the West Bank in incidents involving the Israeli security forces,
and this is in addition to the 49 deaths in Gaza. It has led Washington, which
does not often rebuke Israel and particularly not in public, to make it known
that it is pressing Israel to closely review its open-fire rules and to take
steps to mitigate the risk of harming civilians.
The writing has been on the wall — figuratively and literally — for a very long
time. A combination of the daily misery of living under occupation, a
Palestinian Authority which is dysfunctional and to a large extent on hold until
the inevitable succession issue is resolved, and the lack of a political
solution in the offing, can only be a recipe for increased militancy, even
though such actions are carried out by only a tiny minority. This conflict has
seen too much human loss and suffering, and should and could have been resolved
a long time ago. Neither side is free of blame, but as long as the oppressive
occupation continues, settler violence increases, and settlement expansion goes
unabated, to expect that no Palestinians will resort to militancy is a view
bordering on the delusional. This tragic situation is exactly what militancy and
terrorism thrive on, and furthermore, as surveys among Palestinians demonstrate,
such a response increasingly enjoys public support, as people long for either
someone to break the impasse or stand up to those who are inflicting such
extreme misery and humiliation on them, while support for a diplomatic solution
to the conflict fades away.
Without injecting a new lease of life into a political initiative which would
first improve the daily lives of Palestinians and treat them with the dignity
and humanity they deserve, and then to introduce a vision of a political
solution, the likelihood of violence becomes an inescapable reality. But
instead, Israel is attempting to reverse the causality of events to justify its
idée fixe (fixed idea) that there is no partner for peace, and by that excuse,
to continue the occupation in perpetuity. A further contribution to the current
diplomatic impasse that is holding the door open for militancy is the volatility
of the Israeli political system and the rise of the right, including the
Kahanists’ ultra-right, messianic elements that are predicted to do well in
November’s general election. This has not escaped the attention of Palestinians
and is a cause of both fear and anger. A grouping that was once seen as an
abhorrent phenomenon on the very fringe of Israeli society and politics, one
calling for the expulsion of Palestinians from the West Bank and the annexing of
all of its territory, is now spoken of as a legitimate partner in a coalition
government. Legitimizing the biggest Palestinian haters in Israeli society and
not containing settler violence has become a significant factor in today’s
dangerously explosive situation in the West Bank. The current paradigm of
Israeli security in its relations with the Palestinians is outdated,
short-sighted, immoral and in many cases illegal in the eyes of international
law, and hence unsustainable, and can only lead to yet more violence and
bloodshed.
*Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate fellow
of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the
international written and electronic media. Twitter: @YMekelberg
Waning international cooperation in a changing world
Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/September 17/2022
World leaders will convene in New York, on Sept. 19, for the UN General
Assembly’s annual high-level session at a time of enormous and unprecedented
challenges for the global community, making this year’s gathering a highly
anticipated affair. Following soon after will be the annual meetings of the
International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in October as well as the COP27
Climate Change Conference in Cairo, Egypt, and the G20 summit in Bali,
Indonesia, which will occur a month later. On their agendas will be an array of
assorted threats, from the conflict in Ukraine that has severely dented
international diplomacy to an irremediable pandemic, cumulative disruptions of
worsening climate change, intensifying great power competition, and a global
economy facing generalized stagflation. Coalescent crises such as these are not
a new phenomenon to a nearly 80-year-old global order established after the
Second World War in which the UN has continued to play a pivotal, expansive
role. What is “new,” however, is how years of inaction, inadequate responses,
mistimed interventions and outright oppositional diplomacy have created fertile
conditions for isolated challenges to morph into today’s threat multipliers that
are themselves on the verge of confluence. Their exponential ripple effects are
already adding new dimensions and complexities to a range of woes across the
globe, dooming prospects for multilateralism at a time when the world is
desperately in need of it.
The ensuing chaos is cementing doubts that there is little remaining capacity or
agency at the highest levels to, for instance, create the space for renewed
cooperation and, ultimately, restore confidence in international institutions
and their ability to rise and meet the moment. In addition, this suffocating
pessimism is also partly fueled by a stubborn resistance, particularly within
the UN Security Council, to self-reflect and acknowledge fundamental
vulnerabilities hobbling the organization’s ability to act decisively to
pre-empt crises or mount effective interventions to minimize inevitable
disruptions. Naturally, the international community is thus sabotaging itself by
repeatedly rebuffing calls for much-needed reforms to make global forums more
responsive, inclusive, adaptable and resilient.
Instead of subscribing to transformative engagement better suited to addressing
today’s multifaceted challenges that demand more cooperation, not less, what we
have now are organizations relegated to merely managing chaos. Those that were
once effective arbiters and fierce promoters of collective action — to address
shared threats or tap into mutually beneficial opportunities — are increasingly
relegated to mopping up after crises instead of tackling root causes. Worse yet,
a fragmented global landscape, further divided by the Ukraine debacle, is making
it more difficult to create crucial alignments on even the lowest-hanging
fruits. The UN Security Council, for instance, is struggling to issue joint
statements on a range of priorities and failing to muster sufficient support for
the appointment of envoys to oversee the UN’s mandates or police its sanctions,
thus hampering de-escalation efforts, humanitarian interventions and conflict
mitigation.
The next 12-24 months will be highly unpredictable, necessitating concerted
efforts on an unprecedented scale by global institutions like the UN.
On climate change, successive summits have failed to secure guarantees for
funding to help the developing world — already experiencing the debilitating
effects of a warming planet — embark on comprehensive transformations and meet
their climate obligations. Meanwhile, there is little indication that the
upcoming G20 summit will strongly urge coordinated action on inflation that has
so far pushed millions back into poverty or an easing of the debt burden of
middle- and low-income countries still struggling to recover from the pandemic.
The latter, in particular, has pushed a few developing countries to the brink,
yet the preferred “solution” for the IMF and World Bank remains contractive
structural adjustment programs that demand austerity in economies already under
significant strain.
It may seem hopeless and only a matter of time until an irredeemably broken,
increasingly irrelevant global order, devoid of credibility, finally crumbles.
However, there is still hope, not for its sake alone but derived from the global
community’s resilience and “little victories,” such as brokering a deal to
export Ukrainian grain as well as the facilitation of Russian agricultural
exports hit by sanctions. In addition, the Security Council’s successful
“compartmentalization” of disputes among its Permanent Five, or P-5, has allowed
the perennially quarrelsome body to issue multiple resolutions, extending
mandates on crucial peacekeeping interventions and mediations in Africa and the
Middle East. Even at the worst of the Ukraine conflict, the Security Council has
managed to avoid the usual pitfalls that trip up collective action on mutual
interests — a strategy that helped the UN navigate Cold War-era paralysis by
offering an avenue for rival powers to safeguard at least some of their
interests and avoid diplomatic isolation.
Where the Security Council is too weak or divided to make significant headway on
pressing issues, the General Assembly is now empowered to step up, thanks to an
initiative that would allow it to convene and debate vetoes by the P-5. This
still falls far short of the comprehensive veto reform sought by the Global
South, for instance, but it is a promising development that could aid
alternative alignments without necessarily undermining the Security Council’s
prerogatives. Nonetheless, despite the best efforts to re-energize engagement
among the General Assembly, gatherings over the next turbulent few years are
likely to devolve it into a forum for perfunctory, long-winded refresher courses
on UN principles rather than engaging in the forceful activism required of a
force for global good as it was originally envisioned. Looking ahead, if we set
aside the Ukraine conflict, there are several other arenas where the global
community will need to remain vigilant and highly engaged, including
Afghanistan’s humanitarian challenges; pervasive fragilities in Libya, Syria and
Yemen; strained UN-African Union relations; crumbling peacekeeping interventions
in Africa; longer-term challenges like climate change; and growing distrust in
international institutions. Intense geopolitical rivalries are not helping
either, which risk throwing the global community into further disarray.
After all, divisive maneuvering by the US (along with the EU), China and Russia,
are dooming prospects for deeper levels of cooperation that will be necessary to
reverse some of the woeful trends threatening to push parts of the world over
the edge. The US, for instance, is deeply conflicted about its role as a
preserver of the current world order as it seeks to elevate its domestic
priorities by cutting the steep financial and political costs of maintaining its
“moral obligations” around the world. China, on the other hand, appears
determined to remake it by transforming international institutions into vehicles
for pursuing self-interested aims or mere tools for exercising hegemony well
beyond its neighborhood. Russia seems hellbent on simply undermining the
Western-led global order altogether in favor of transactional bilateralism
between distinct spheres of influence. What is clear to most of the world is
that the next 12-24 months will be highly unpredictable, necessitating concerted
efforts on an unprecedented scale by global institutions like the UN. Limited
“wins” and maintaining a presence in fragile, crisis-prone areas do instill hope
that, even when beset by mounting challenges, the spirit of cooperation endures
— for now.
*Hafed Al-Ghwell is a non-resident senior fellow with the Foreign Policy
Institute at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International
Studies. He is also a senior adviser at the international economic consultancy
Maxwell Stamp and the geopolitical risk advisory firm Oxford Analytica, a member
of the Strategic Advisory Solutions International Group in Washington, and a
former adviser to the board of the World Bank Group. Twitter: @HafedAlGhwell
Turkey and the Gulf grow closer
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/September 17/2022
In international relations there is a well-known argument connecting defense and
security needs with economic interests. Historically, under certain
circumstances, states deepen their relations through both trade and defense
diplomacy. In most cases, economic and defense trade makes a positive
relationship more likely. Given the latest developments in Turkey-Gulf relations
as part of the reconciliation process, the question is what comes next.
Several attention-grabbing developments have taken place in Turkey’s relations
with the Gulf states in the past few weeks. First, Turkey’s Energy and Natural
Resources Minister Fatih Donmez said that Ankara was holding talks with Oman on
natural gas trade.
The minister has visited several countries amid the sharp increase in global
energy prices. Last month he had what he described as fruitful meetings in Oman
and Qatar that focused on investment opportunities in the oil and gas sector,
renewable energy, and related industries. On natural gas trade with Oman, he
said: “We will act when commercial conditions are appropriate.” In June,
Turkey’s annual natural gas imports fellby 5.64 percent to 3.84 billion cubic
meters
Turkey has not had natural gas trade with Oman, so Ankara’s move was significant
both diplomatically and economically. When compared to Turkey’s relations with
other Gulf countries, those with Oman are still at a moderate level. They have
been mostly neutral, with no serious ups and downs, and motivated by pragmatism.
For Muscat, diversifying its partnerships with regional actors, especially in
the fields of defense and trade, has become a vital option. Over the past few
years, Turkey’s defense industry has increased its sales to Gulf countries and
this may be an area of cooperation with Turkey that Muscat could deepen in the
future. We have yet to see whether there will be any defense cooperation, but
Turkish-Omani relations are gaining impetus in other areas such as tourism and
trade. Oman Air increased flights to Istanbul and Trabzon last week because of
extraordinary demand.
The UAE’s desire to become involved in strategically significant sectors of the
Turkish economy, such as drone production, is an indication of a “trading for
security” understanding in Turkish-Emirati relations.
The second development was a report of UAE negotiations with Ankara to purchase
TB2 armed drones from the Turkish manufacturer Baykar, which may add another
customer to the growing list of countries interested in acquiring the weapons.
Emirati and Turkish defense companies have already cooperated on the Rabdan
amphibious armored vehicle. These new Turkish-Emirati ties are quickly proving
lucrative. The two states are also about to finalize a free trade deal. The
UAE’s desire to become involved in strategically significant sectors of the
Turkish economy, such as drone production, is an indication of a “trading for
security” understanding in Turkish-Emirati relations.
The third development was the Qatar Investment Authority’s purchase of a large
stake in Istanbul’s Avrasya — or Eurasia — Tunnel across the Bosphorus strait in
Istanbul. By December last year, Qatar’s investments in Turkey reached $22
billion, and 533 Turkish companies operate in Qatar in projects worth at least
$18.5 billion. In turn, 179 Qatari companies operate in Turkey. Meanwhile, the
diplomatic traffic between Turkish and Gulf diplomats has intensified in the
past few months. Turkish ambassadors in Gulf capitals, in particular Riyadh and
Abu Dhabi, have been holding frequent meetings to foster the new era in
Turkey-Gulf relations. Turkey’s expansion of multifaceted engagement with the
Gulf states, after normalization thanks to the reconciliation climate, is
reflected in areas that were not explored previously, so the goals of both from
the normalization may be coming to fruition. As I have argued before, relations
based on institutions and fostered through diverse fields, and for the long term
rather than short-term political or economic gain, will be beneficial for both
Turkey and the Gulf states in this increasingly volatile region.
• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s
relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz
Why Italy’s election matters to the world
Andrew Hammond/Arab News/September 17/2022
The eyes of much of the globe are already on November’s US midterm elections.
Before then, however, there is another national ballot over 5,000 miles away
that could also have huge international repercussions.
On Sunday, Sept. 25, Italy goes to the polls, and the result may trigger a
political earthquake in Europe that could ripple across the rest of the world,
for polls indicate that it is most likely the nation may elect its first
far-right prime minister since the war, Giorgia Meloni.
Italy is a pivotal state in the West, not only because of its membership of the
G7 and the fact that it has the third largest economy in the eurozone. It has
wider systemic importance in Europe, having the biggest debt load in the single
currency area with fears that if the nation gets into trouble, it could spark a
wider sovereign debt crisis.
With such renewed angst in a country where there have been more than 65 national
governments in the post-war era, concerns are growing again about its future.
Part of the reason for the growth of populism and far-right politics in Italy is
public concern over corruption and continuing fragility of the economy with
higher-than-EU-average unemployment and low growth. Indeed, only Greece has
fared worse in the eurozone in the last two and a half decades.
Italy has therefore long been a “weak link” in the eurozone, with the biggest
debt load in the single currency area. Indeed, Italy’s approximately €2.5
trillion ($2.5 trillion) government debt pile is larger than those of the next
four countries combined, and maybe too big for a bailout. Little wonder that
investor bets against Italy’s government bond market are at their highest since
2008 in a sign of unease about the economic outlook.
If the far-right secures a super-majority in Italy, far-reaching reform could
ensue in the nation that could have implications not just for Europe, but also
for the wider West.
There are fears too that if Italy gets into trouble, it could spark contagion
and a wider sovereign debt crisis in Europe. Some investors are increasingly
questioning whether other eurozone countries can continue to roll over public
debts, which have grown significantly during the pandemic and are becoming more
expensive to refinance as the European Central Bank raises interest rates.
This dramatic political and economic context for Italy’s big election could see
a reshaping of the nation’s policy agenda in multiple areas, including the war
in Ukraine and support for the EU. The right-wing government, which polls are
predicting might prevail, could result in significantly reduced Italian resolve
in the campaign against Russia, an array of new tensions with Brussels and new
economic and social flashpoints domestically.
Meloni formed Brothers of Italy in 2012, four years after becoming Italy’s
youngest-ever minister in then-Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s final
administration. In 2018, the Brothers of Italy won less than 5 percent of the
vote in the last general election, though today it is polling around five times
that number.
Part of the reason for this rise is that Meloni took the decision to become the
only major party leader refusing to go into Mario Draghi’s broad-based
coalition. This allowed her to carve out a distinctive political profile.
Meloni’s party has no significant experience in government. If she wins power,
that may rely quite strongly on the parties she is planning to go into coalition
with. These include Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and The League, which is led by
Matteo Salvini.
However, there remains a significant margin for surprise in the result, not
least given that about a fifth of eligible voters are still undecided. There is
also a lot of uncertainty over the electoral impact of revelations that emerged
on Sept. 14 over a US intelligence dossier that reportedly details a $300
million covert international influence campaign by the Kremlin, including
potentially in Italy.
The issue is causing concern in Italy, potentially negatively impacting the
chances of any of the right-wing and/or populist parties that are perceived to
have close ties to Russia, but the exact electoral impact cannot be quantified
yet because of the national polling “blackout,” which began on Sept. 10. Before
the new Russia revelations emerged, the right-wing bloc appeared to have the
wind in its sails, with the possibility it could secure a so-called
“super-majority” of two-thirds in both chambers (the lower House or Chamber of
Deputies and the Senate). Such a super-majority would be unprecedented in
Italy’s modern history and would allow for the type of significant
constitutional change that has not been seen before in its post-war history.
Taken together, this is why the political and economic stakes are so high in the
upcoming election. If the far-right were to secure a super-majority,
far-reaching reform could ensue in the nation that could have implications not
just for Europe, but also for the wider West.
*Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
Thanks to the Biden Administration's and EU's Appeasement,
Iran's Mullahs Go Big on Cyberattacks
Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/September 17, 2022
The small country of Albania appeared to have more courage and stronger
leadership than the Biden administration: it recently sent a strong message to
the Iranian regime after Iran's cyberattacks against Albania in July. Albania
severed diplomatic relations with Tehran and ordered Iranian diplomats and
embassy staff to leave within 24 hours.
"This extreme response... is fully proportionate to the gravity and risk of the
cyberattack that threatened to paralyze public services, erase digital systems
and hack into state records, steal government intranet electronic communication
and stir chaos and insecurity in the country". — Albanian Prime Minister Edi
Rama, Reuters, September 7, 2022.
"The IRGC clearly makes the country one of the best and most advanced nations
when it comes to cyberwarfare. In a case of escalation between Iran and the
West, Iran will likely aim to launch a cyberattack against critical
infrastructures in the US and its allies, (targeting) energy infrastructure,
financial institutions and transportation systems." — Institute for National
Security Studies.
Cyber warfare could have consequences at least as severe as military actions:
cyberattacks can take control of or disrupt an entire nation's infrastructure --
public services, hospitals, transportation, internet, municipal or governmental
institutions, the energy sector, steal people's private information, take
control of another country's missiles, unmanned vehicles (drones), and even its
military's intelligence, command, control and communications.
That is just what the West needs: the world's largest state sponsor of terrorism
and cyberattacker extraordinaire, soon to have an unlimited quantity of nuclear
weapons, precision ballistic missiles to deliver them, and up to a trillion
dollars – and in a deal negotiated by -- of all countries -- Russia! And the US
government seriously thinks that this mix will prevent war? Let us instead
follow the example of spunky Albania, punish bad behavior rather than reward it,
and make sure that Biden's atrocious new "Iran deal," reportedly "off the table
at least for the time being," is off the table forever.
The small country of Albania appeared to have more courage and stronger
leadership than the Biden administration: it recently sent a strong message to
the Iranian regime after Iran's cyberattacks against Albania in July. Albania
severed diplomatic relations with Tehran and ordered Iranian diplomats and
embassy staff to leave within 24 hours. Pictured: A police officer stands guard
outside the Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Tirana on September 7,
2022.
Not only is the Biden administration is turning a blind eye to the Iranian
regime's terror activities and plots abroad, it has also been completely silent
about the mullahs' escalating cyberattacks.
The small country of Albania appeared to have more courage and stronger
leadership than the Biden administration: it recently sent a strong message to
the Iranian regime after Iran's cyberattacks against Albania in July. Albania
severed diplomatic relations with Tehran and ordered Iranian diplomats and
embassy staff to leave within 24 hours. Albania's Prime Minister Edi Rama stated
in a video:
"The in-depth investigation provided us with indisputable evidence that the
cyberattack against our country was orchestrated and sponsored by the Islamic
Republic of Iran through the engagement of four groups that enacted the
aggression...
"The government has decided with immediate effect to end diplomatic relations
with the Islamic Republic of Iran. This extreme response... is fully
proportionate to the gravity and risk of the cyberattack that threatened to
paralyse public services, erase digital systems and hack into state records,
steal government intranet electronic communication and stir chaos and insecurity
in the country".
Not only the Biden administration, but also NATO has not taken any actions
against the Iranian regime, even though Albania is one of its members. A
cyberattack actually could be grounds to trigger Article 5 of NATO's founding
treaty.
In 2014, NATO members recognized cyber defense as part of NATO's core task of
collective defense, which means that a cyber attack could be grounds to invoke
Article 5 of NATO's founding treaty. According to Article 5:
"Collective defence means that an attack against one Ally is considered as an
attack against all Allies. The principle of collective defence is enshrined in
Article 5 of the Washington Treaty."
If the Biden administration remains silent and continues to negotiate with the
Iranian regime to revive the nuclear deal, appease the Iranian leaders, and lift
sanctions on Tehran, the Islamist mullahs will be emboldened and empowered to
target ever more Western governments with its cyberattacks. Halting negotiations
with this regime and sanctioning its economy are steps in the right direction.
Iran's cyber warfare program is most probably run by the Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps (IRGC), which, with the ruling mullahs, will be the sole
beneficiaries of a new Iranian nuclear deal. As the Israeli-based Institute for
National Security Studies has said:
"The IRGC clearly makes the country one of the best and most advanced nations
when it comes to cyberwarfare. In a case of escalation between Iran and the
West, Iran will likely aim to launch a cyberattack against critical
infrastructures in the US and its allies, (targeting) energy infrastructure,
financial institutions and transportation systems."
We should not underestimate the Iranian regime's cyberattacks. Cyber warfare
could have consequences at least as severe as military actions: cyberattacks can
take control of or disrupt an entire nation's infrastructure -- public services,
hospitals, transportation, internet, municipal or governmental institutions, the
energy sector, steal people's private information, take control of another
country's missiles, unmanned vehicles (drones), and even its military's
intelligence, command, control and communications.
As Daniel Coats, who served as the U.S. Director of National Intelligence,
stressed at a hearing of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence:
"We face a complex, volatile and challenging threat environment. The risk of
interstate conflict is higher than any time since the end of the Cold War -- all
the more alarming because of the growing development and use of weapons of mass
destruction by state and nonstate actors. Our adversaries, as well as the other
malign actors, are using cyber and other instruments of power to shape societies
and markets, international rules and institutions, and international hotspots to
their advantage."
This was not the first time that the Iranian regime had launched a major
cyberattack against another country. In November 2018, two people based in Iran
were accused of being behind a series of cyberattacks inside the U.S.. The
attacks included crippling the municipal government of Atlanta, Georgia, by
targeting its hospitals, schools, state agencies and other institutions. Data
from these major institutions was held hostage in exchange for ransom payments.
According to Brian Benczkowski, who served as the Assistant Attorney General for
the Criminal Division of the U.S. Department of Justice, the individuals
"deliberately engaged in an extreme form of 21st-century digital blackmail,
attacking and extorting vulnerable victims like hospitals and schools — victims
they knew would be willing and able to pay."
The Justice Department also indicted seven Iranian citizens for distributed
denial of service (DDoS) attacks against 46 companies, mainly in the banking and
financial sectors. Several intelligence agencies and officials in 2017 revealed
that a group of Iranian hackers, known as "Cadelle and Chafer," carried out
damaging cyber attacks against Saudi Arabia.
Thanks to the EU and the Biden administration's appeasement policy towards the
Iranian regime, the ruling mullahs have been emboldened to such an extent that
they launched a major cyberrattack against a NATO member's governmental and
public infrastructure, and have been attempting to murder US citizens and
officials on American soil.
That is just what the West needs: the world's largest state sponsor of terrorism
and cyberattacker extraordinaire, soon to have an unlimited quantity of nuclear
weapons, precision ballistic missiles to deliver them, and up to a trillion
dollars -- and in a deal negotiated by -- of all countries - Russia! And the US
government seriously thinks that this mix will prevent war? Let us instead
follow the example of spunky Albania, punish bad behavior rather than reward it,
and make sure that Biden's atrocious new "Iran deal," reportedly "off the table
at least for the time being," is off the table forever.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated
scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and
president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has
authored several books on Islam and US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at
Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
The Rules of Israeli Escalation in Syria!
Akram Bunni/Asharq Al Awsat/September 17/2022
Many are shocked by the submissiveness and passivity of the so-called Axis of
Resistance in addressing the ongoing Israeli air and missile strikes targeting
this Axis’ military bases in Syria. Adding to their bewilderment is that this
servility persisted even as the rules of escalation changed, with the sphere of
targets expanding to include locations that are hundreds of kilometers away from
the border and civilian sites, including the airports of Damascus and Aleppo,
which have recently been violently bombarded and temporarily put out of service.
Those who believe that Israel is changing the rules of escalation in response to
the increase of Iranian military activity in Syria are correct. These attacks
are also in retaliation to the reports about missile factories being built and
ammunition and advanced weaponry being transported through the airports of
Damascus and Aleppo, including air defenses and drones, and these weapons being
stored in warehouses located in an array of Syrian cities. Indeed, the
government in Tel Aviv has always justified its increased military operations in
Syria by pointing to the growing presence and threats of the Iranians.
On several occasions, it has reiterated its goal of preventing Tehran and its
armed sectarian militias from establishing, now or in the future, a military
presence in Syria that grants it the capacity to threaten Israel’s security from
its northern border, as well as to hinder Iranian expansion in Syrian territory
and the enhancement of Iran’s military positions and weapons in Syria, which
would make Syria a complementary front to that of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Those who tie this escalation to the ongoing negotiations in Vienna are not
mistaken, as Tel Aviv, through these attacks, seeks to pile pressure on the US
administration and the European states to take a firmer stance and account for
its interests and concerns. It wants them to take more precautions against
future Iranian breaches of the agreement and to force more concessions from
Iran, whereby the deal does not address only the nuclear program but also Iran’s
role in the region and its ballistic missile program.
Those who believe that the timing is linked to the war between Russia and
Ukraine have not missed the mark either. Israel seeks to exploit Russia’s
preoccupation with its war there, and the Jewish state is unsettled by the fact
that Iran is trying to enhance its military position on the ground in Syria and
fill the gap left by the Russians pulling some of their troops out of the
country so they can fight in Ukraine. In fact, they are open about the fact that
they refuse to allow Iran to establish military bases on Syrian territory.
From this same angle, it is correct to see this recent escalation as part of
Israel’s attempt to capitalize on the Arab states’ apprehensions regarding
Iran’s expansionist ambitions. These attacks send a strong signal that Israel
would be a reliable partner in the effort to find solutions to the region’s
problems and ensure its stability. It also wants to indicate that it is prepared
to cooperate in addressing the quandary created by Iran’s growing influence in
Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen.
Nevertheless, this takes nothing away from the fact that Israel had, alongside
the United States, laid the groundwork for this growing influence or at least
allowed it to grow. Both the war on Iraq, which was followed by the obliteration
of its state and its institutions, and the leniency with which the growth of
Hezbollah in Lebanon sowed the seeds of this expansion, as did overlooking the
blatant interference of Iran and its militias in Syria
Of course, it is not secret that Israeli escalation in Syria would not have
continued without the longstanding complicity of the Syrian regime. It is now
obvious that Israel, over the past ten years, has not pushed for the overthrow
of the regime. Rather, it did everything in its power to ensure the regime’s
survival, and the rulers of Damascus, in turn, became aware that Israeli cover
was critical for their survival.
We say all of this before getting into Tel Aviv’s military superiority and the
crises facing the Syrian regime amid the destruction and violence that has
wreaked havoc across the country, which explains the Syrians’ insistence on not
allowing their border to turn into a war front and on depriving Iran and its
militias of ability to retaliate from Syrian territory. This conviction is
strengthened by the fact that Israel has signaled to the regime, in various
ways, that it is not concerned with the regime’s military operations and that,
in general, it will continue to launch only deterrent attacks that primarily
target mainly arms shipments, Iranian missile depots, and bases of the IRGC and
the militias associated with it.
Making matters more bewildering is that Israel’s military escalation was not
met, as had been the norm, with escalation from the Syrian media. On the
contrary, we have seen the Syrian media walk back on its tough positions. The
regime, which had always threatened to respond to what it considers aggression
“at the appropriate time and place,” is now seeking the aid of the international
community.
In a statement released by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the regime called on
the international community to hold Israel accountable, arguing that airstrikes
on civilian infrastructure are a war crime under international law… Holding the
Arab world and international community’s silence responsible for allowing the
enemy to continue its attacks, which have not been condemned- even those
targeting civilian facilities… Stressing that Damascus maintains its right to
hold the Israeli authorities “accountable” and considers Israel responsible for
all the legal, moral, political, and financial ramifications of their attacks on
the international airports of Damascus and Aleppo… and so on!
As for the most bewildering aspect of this state of affairs, it is that Israel
changing the rules of military escalation against the Iranian target in Syria,
with its attacks becoming more regular and larger in scale, did not undermine
the keenness of both sides to keep matters under control and avert the eruption
of war. Tehran was content with swiftly changing the location of arms depots and
warning its forces not to leave their fortified sites! The fact is that just as
Israel is working to prevent the eruption of war, Iran- despite the humiliation
of Tel Aviv hitting military bases and militias in Syria at will- prefers to
avert war as well. Perhaps they both want to avoid clashing because of the price
that they would pay, which could potentially be exorbitant. Perhaps war is being
averted because Tehran realizes that it is the weaker party that has been
stretched thin after its interventions in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, as it
worries that the climates of war will expose the emptiness of its slogans and
the severity the crises it facing, which would incite the Iranian people against
the expansionist policy of their rulers that cost them heavily.
Finally, perhaps they are avoiding war because averting it serves the interests
of both. On the one hand, Israel needs Iran and its militia to maintain a
presence in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, so these countries remain paralyzed and are
prevented from progressing, as well as to leave other Arab states surrounded and
preoccupied. On the other hand, Iran and its allies overtly need Israel to
continue to be a menacing force in the region if they are to paper over their
failure to solve crises, as well as to justify their sectarian incitement,
violent actions, and interventions in the region!
Different Agendas and Fronts in Syria
Omer Onhon/Asharq Al Awsat/September 17/2022
Since day one of the crisis in Syria, Iran has been directly engaged and present
on the frontlines. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, Lebanese Hezbollah, and
other Shia militia from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan have been an essential
part of the Assad regime’s war effort. Assad’s other big time ally Russia is
engaged in a war in Ukraine and there is a general perception that Russia is
trimming its presence in Syria. It is true that the war in Ukraine is not going
as smoothly as the Russians had expected and they had to redeploy some of their
troops and equipment which were in Syria. But that does not mean that Russia is
reducing in size and capability to the level that would make itself irrelevant.
On the contrary, under present circumstances, I would argue that Russia’s
presence and influence in Syria has become even more important as an instrument
in relations with adversaries and “friends” alike.
In any event, Iran is trying to take advantage of the situation and making moves
to expand its presence and influence in Syria.
In this regard, it is further expanding its military capabilities, penetrating
deeper into the Syrian military and civilian structures and working on
demographic engineering through settling Shia militia and their families in and
around Damascus and in various other places in the country. Even if for
different reasons, what Iran is doing in Syria is a nuisance for almost all,
including for Russia, even though they are on the same side and even for some
parts of the Assad regime.
The most annoyed nation with Iran’s presence is Israel and it is determined not
to allow a free hand to it in Syria.
Israel frequently strikes Iranian and proxy targets there. These targets have
included IRGC camps around Abu Kamal and depots in Masyaf where missiles were
said to be kept. Israel has also struck the airports of Damascus and Aleppo to
prevent Iranian planes from landing. It has been said that these planes were
carrying equipment which would boost Iran’s military capabilities, which would
also be used against Israel. It has been reported that Russia has asked Iran to
stop its activities, especially in areas near Israel so as not to provoke it.
Another major issue regarding Syria is Türkiye’s apparent new Syria policy.
President Recep Tayyib Erdoğan’s comments a few weeks ago demonstrated an intent
of “making up with the Assad regime” and the issue is now up for heated public
debate in Türkiye.
With upcoming elections in 2023, the Turkish government needs to do something or
needs to appear to be doing something about security and refugee issues.
Syrian refugees in Türkiye and their return to their homeland have become major
domestic policy issues in particular.
Since last May, President Erdoğan has been talking about another major military
operation in northern Syria with the aim of pushing back the YPG from places
where it still remains and creating a zone that would be the place that Syrians
in Türkiye could return to.
Almost all actors, be it Türkiye’s “allies” (USA, EU countries) or so-called
regional partners (Russia, Iran), are against such an operation. Apparently,
Putin has advised Erdoğan to talk to Assad in order to deal with security
concerns.
President Erdogan has not turned down the suggestion of his Russian counterpart.
In fact, Erdogan’s statements on the way back from Tehran and especially Sochi
were very clear on the importance he attaches to what Putin says.
Turkish-Russian relations are interesting and complex. Syria is not a stand
alone issue in the relations between the two. It is more realistic to look at it
as part of a package that includes the war in Ukraine, the Caucasus, Libya as
well as bilateral relations including power plants, natural gas, and tourism
among others. On the other hand, continued US support to the YPG angers Erdoğan
and draws him closer to Russia.
The USA is reported to have established a third base near the city of Al-Qamishli
in the Kurdish-dominated and YPG-controlled part of Syria. The two have also
conducted a joint military exercise in the northeastern end of the country.
Around 900 American troops are said to be present in Syria with a major stated
objective of maintaining pressure on ISIS. The Assad regime and the YPG are
known to be cooperating in a number of areas, including oil trade. They also
cooperate or give the impression that they do, with Russia’s encouragement,
against outside threats, meaning Türkiye.
An important issue regarding YPG or the Kurds is what happens with them in the
future of Syria. YPG leaders have stated that they will respect the territorial
integrity of the country but they will not fall behind what they have now,
meaning that they will insist on some kind of self-rule. This issue is of common
concern for Ankara and Damascus as well as the Syrian opposition.
I guess this must be one of the major topics of discussion at the meetings
between the heads of Turkish and Syrian intelligence organizations. It was
reported that their last meeting was held in Moscow a few days ago. There are no
official statements on these talks, so what goes on there is not known for sure
and is up for speculation.
But in fact, what the Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mikdad said during his
press conference in Moscow during his last visit there, gives a good idea about
the obvious. Mikdad specifically referred to the withdrawal of Turkish troops
from Syria and putting an end to support given to armed groups as well as
interfering in Syria’s domestic issues. It would come as no surprise that
Türkiye has its own version of concerns and requests. The question now is
whether the talks between Turkish and Syrian spy chiefs have matured enough to
lead the process to the next stage, that is to the political level.
Turkish Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu had revealed that he had run into his Syrian
counterpart Faisal Mikdad at an international meeting in Belgrade last October
and that they had a conversation.
Could it be that the Ministers of Türkiye and Syria or some other high-ranking
officials run into each other once again, this time in the corridors of the
United Nations building, on the occasion of the UN General Assembly which will
begin in New York on 20 September? This is not something that could not happen.
Whatever the case, there are many issues to be dealt with including the future
of the Kurds, refugees, armed groups, Syrian opposition, Idlib and the list goes
on. These are only the general headings and as one goes into subtitles, things
get even more complicated.
Then there is the big question as to how other actors, such as Russia, Iran, the
USA and several Arab nations, all with different and often conflicting agendas,
would react. Clearly, the road ahead is very bumpy with many potential dead
ends.