English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For September 02/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
See what love the Father has given us, that we should be called children of God; and that is what we are
First Letter of John 03/01-10: "See what love the Father has given us, that we should be called children of God; and that is what we are. The reason the world does not know us is that it did not know him.Beloved, we are God’s children now; what we will be has not yet been revealed. What we do know is this: when he is revealed, we will be like him, for we will see him as he is.And all who have this hope in him purify themselves, just as he is pure. Everyone who commits sin is guilty of lawlessness; sin is lawlessness. You know that he was revealed to take away sins, and in him there is no sin. No one who abides in him sins; no one who sins has either seen him or known him. Little children, let no one deceive you. Everyone who does what is right is righteous, just as he is righteous. Everyone who commits sin is a child of the devil; for the devil has been sinning from the beginning. The Son of God was revealed for this purpose, to destroy the works of the devil. Those who have been born of God do not sin, because God’s seed abides in them; they cannot sin, because they have been born of God. The children of God and the children of the devil are revealed in this way: all who do not do what is right are not from God, nor are those who do not love their brothers and sisters."

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 01-02/2022
UN Condemns Restrictions on Peacekeepers in South Lebanon
US calls for concluding maritime border deal 'in coming weeks'
Hochstein to return on Sep. 7 as Total Energies demands 'security guarantees'
Mikati reportedly willing to make concessions to Aoun
President Aoun receives invitation from Jaafari Mufti to attend memorial ceremony on first anniversary of the passing of Imam Qabalan
President Aoun welcomes UNIFIL mandate extension, tackles general situation with Baabda palace visitors
Mikati chairs meeting over telecoms conditions, tackles developments with Grand Serail visitors
Bukhari meets Choucair, private sector delegation
Lebanese families file lawsuit against army for boat sinking
Lebanese Speaker Calls for Electing President that 'Unites Rather Than Divides'
US: Hezbollah’s amassing of weapons on Israel’s northern border must stop
Hezbollah at 40 stronger than ever but has more enemies
'Rampant chaos': Lebanon state sector eroded by grinding crisis
The End of the 'Strong Reign'/Hanna Saleh/Asharq Al Awsat/September 01/2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 01-02/2022
Eleven Coptic Churches “Catch Fire” Over Two Weeks in Egypt/Raymond Ibrahim/Coptic Solidarity/September 01/2022
Iranian Commander Says Time for Ground War Against Israel
Ex-IDF intel chief reveals more details on Israel's role in Soleimani killing
Macron Hopeful of Iran Nuclear Deal in Next Few Days
Israeli Missiles Target Aleppo Airport, Damascus Countryside
Israel Fires Missiles at Syrian Airports – Report
Syrian FM Says Israel 'Playing with Fire'
US Pressures for Calm in West Bank, Curbs Palestinian Efforts for ‘Full UN Membership’
Biden Urges Iraq 'National Dialogue' in Call with Kadhimi
Precarious calm in Baghdad as roots of crisis endure, US praises Kadhimi's performance
Four Killed as Violent Clashes Move to Iraq's Basra
Iraq’s Green Zone Breathes a Sigh of Relief as ‘Anxious’ Calm Returns to Baghdad
UN team heads to Ukraine nuclear plant despite shelling
Australia, France deepen defense ties after breakdown
To China's fury, UN accuses Beijing of Uyghur rights abuses

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 01-02/2022
A Deal Based on Lies: The Iran Nuclear Agreement Will Make War More Likely/Richard Kemp/Gatestone Institute./September 01/2022
Hamas in Turkey: Money Laundering, Turkish Passports, Government Collusion and Terror Bank Accounts/Uzay Bulut/Gatestone Institute./September 01/2022
A Deal Based on Lies: The Iran Nuclear Agreement Will Make War More Likely/Richard Kemp/Gatestone Institute./September 01/2022
Pelosi’s promise...Showing up in Taiwan is not enough/Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/September 01/2022
Putin Will Turn Gorbachev’s Death to His Advantage/Clara Ferreira Marques/Bloomberg/September 01/2022
Iran nuclear deal: Iran will sign, but it won't go quietly - analysis'/Yonah Jeremy Bob/Jerusalem Post/September 01/2022
On the fate of the missing/Farouk Youssef/The Arab Weekly/September 01/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 01-02/2022
UN Condemns Restrictions on Peacekeepers in South Lebanon

Associated Press/Thursday, 1 September, 2022
The UN Security Council unanimously approved a resolution Wednesday strongly condemning harassment, intimidation, attacks and restrictions against the UN peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon. It also called on Lebanese authorities to accelerate deployment of ground and naval forces to the area, which borders Israel. The resolution, which extends the mandate of the peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL until Aug. 31, 2023, stresses again the importance of all parties respecting the UN-drawn Blue Line between Lebanon and Israel. It expresses concern at the recent installation of “containers” along the line that restrict the UN force’s access and visibility and at UNIFIL’s inability to visit areas north of the line related to tunnels that Israel said it discovered in late 2018. Israel has repeatedly accused the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, of impeding UNIFIL peacekeepers from carrying out their mandate. Hezbollah battled Israel to a stalemate in a month-long war in 2006, and in 2019 Israel destroyed a series of what it said were attack tunnels dug under the border by Hezbollah, The Associated Press reported. UNIFIL was created to oversee the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon after a 1978 invasion. The mission was expanded after the 2006 war so peacekeepers could deploy along the Lebanon-Israel border to help Lebanese troops extend their authority into their country’s south for the first time in decades. That resolution also called for a full cessation of Israeli-Hezbollah hostilities, which has not happened. The resolution adopted Wednesday does not mention Hezbollah, which remains active in southern Lebanon, by name. But US deputy ambassador Richard Mills noted that UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in his latest report that UNIFIL troops are blocked “with increasing frequency” from carrying out their mandate and accessing sites, and the American envoy strongly indicated that Hezbollah is to blame. “The proliferation of prefabricated containers placed by Green Without Borders obstructs UNIFIL’s access to the Blue Line and is heightening tensions in the area, further demonstrating that this so-called environmental group is acting on Hezbollah’s behalf,” Mills said.
The resolution condemns “in the strongest terms all attempts to restrict the freedom of movement of UNIFIL’s personnel, all acts of harassment and intimidation and all attacks against peacekeepers,” including attacks from 2018 through January 2022. It reiterates that the status of forces agreement between Lebanon and the United Nations gives UNIFIL peacekeepers the authority to carry out their mission without prior authorization or permission. The resolution “demands the parties cease any restrictions and hindrances to the movement of UNIFIL personnel and guarantee the freedom of movement of UNIFIL, including by allowing announced and unannounced patrols,” a reaffirmation of the UN mission’s authority to operate independently. The Security Council strongly reaffirmed the necessity for the Lebanese armed forces to deploy in southern Lebanon and its territorial waters “at an accelerated pace." It also strongly encouraged the Lebanese government “to accelerate its deployment of a model regiment” and welcomed the inauguration of its headquarters on June 13, in the village of Srobbine in south Lebanon. The regiment is funded by the European Union.
It also strongly encouraged the accelerated deployment of a patrol vessel in UNIFIL’s operating area and reiterated its call for the government “to present a plan to increase its naval capabilities as soon as possible,” with the ultimate goal of decreasing UNIFIL’s maritime force and transferring responsibilities to the government. UNIFIL has a ceiling of 13,000 uniformed personnel, but the latest UN figures say less than 10,650 are deployed. Lebanon is struggling through a crippling economic crisis that has plunged over three-quarters of its population into poverty. The Lebanese pound has lost over 90% of its value against the US dollar. The country’s already frail infrastructure further deteriorated after the huge explosion at the Beirut port on Aug. 4, 2020, that killed more than 200 people, injured over 6,000, and destroyed several neighborhoods in the Lebanese capital. The Security Council resolution expresses solidarity with Lebanon and its people following the port explosion and deplores “the lack of progress of an independent, impartial, thorough and transparent investigation into the explosions by the Lebanese judicial system.”The council also urged Lebanese political leaders to urgently form a government that can implement reforms and respond to “the current and unprecedented acute social, economic and humanitarian crises.”

US calls for concluding maritime border deal 'in coming weeks'
Agence France Presse/September 01/2022
A White House statement said U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid have discussed negotiations to resolve border issues between Israel and Lebanon. "The President also emphasized the importance of concluding the maritime boundary negotiations between Israel and Lebanon in the coming weeks," the U.S. statement said. Lebanon and Israel, whose border is U.N.-patrolled, have no diplomatic relations.They resumed maritime border negotiations in 2020 but the process was stalled by Beirut's claim that the map used by the United Nations in the talks needed modifying.
Lebanon initially demanded 860 square kilometers (330 square miles) in the disputed maritime area but then asked for an additional 1,430 square kilometers, including part of the Karish offshore gas field. Israel claims the field lies in its waters and is not part of the disputed area subject to ongoing negotiations.

Hochstein to return on Sep. 7 as Total Energies demands 'security guarantees'
Naharnet/September 01/2022
U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein has postponed his visit to the region until September seven, al-Akhbar newspaper said Thursday. The daily added that Hochstein has held an online meeting with Israeli officials after having met in Greece with Israeli delegates and the leadership of the Greek gas exploration company, Energean. Al-Akhbar had earlier reported that Hochstein had discussed with an adviser to French President Emmanuel Macron the role of Total Energies, the French company which owns the gas exploration rights in Lebanon’s territorial waters. On Thursday, the daily said that the mediator couldn't obtain Total Energies' full approval to start the gas extraction in Lebanon before a "clear" border deal is reached and before receiving security guarantees from all parties. The report went on to say that Hochstein's plan is to postpone the demarcation deal until after the Israeli elections and the end of President Michel Aoun's term. "Israel would announce postponing the exploration in Karish and Total Energies would announce its willingness to proceed with the exploration in Lebanon," the report said.

Mikati reportedly willing to make concessions to Aoun
Naharnet/September 01/2022
Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati is willing to make concessions to President Michel Aoun, al-Akhbar newspaper reported. The daily said Thursday that it had learned that Mikati does not mind letting Aoun choose the names of the two ministers who will replace the minister of economy and the minister of the displaced. "Mikati is yet insisting that one of the new ministers must be from the North and have the support of the Akkar MPs," the report said. It added that Mikati also needs the approval of Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat "to ensure that the new government would obtain the Parliament's confidence."Meanwhile, Kuwaiti newspaper al-Jarida said that Hezbollah is communicating with both Aoun and Mikati in an attempt to find common ground that allows forming a new government. It added that Hezbollah is trying to convince Aoun to give up his demand for adding six state ministers.

President Aoun receives invitation from Jaafari Mufti to attend memorial ceremony on first anniversary of the passing of Imam Qabalan
NNA/Thursday, 1 September, 2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, received met the excellent Jaafari Mufti Sheikh Ahmed Qabalan. Mufti Qabalan conveyed an invitation from the Supreme Islamic Shiite Council and the family of the late Imam Sheikh Abdul Amir Qabalan, to attend the memorial celebration that is held on the first memorial of the death of Imam Qabalan, on Wednesday, September 7, at five o'clock in the afternoon, in the National Unity Hall, in the Supreme Islamic Shiite Council, on Airport Road. General and current developments were deliberated in the meeting

President Aoun welcomes UNIFIL mandate extension, tackles general situation with Baabda palace visitors
NNA/Thursday, 1 September, 2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, welcomed the UN Security Council's decision to extend the international forces operating in the south (UNIFIL) for an additional year. President Aoun considered that this step confirms the determination of the international community to maintain security and stability on the southern borders. In addition, President Aoun indicated that coordination is on-going between the Lebanese army and "UNIFIL" for the good implementation of Resolution 1701 in all its aspects, especially the cessation of hostilities perpetrated by Israel on land, sea and air.
On the other hand, President Aoun renewed his thanks to the countries participating in UNIFIL for continuing to carry out the peacekeeping mission along the borders, and stressed Lebanon's commitment to implementing international resolutions, commemorating the international soldiers who fell on the land of the south, and appreciating their sacrifices.
Minister Hajjar
The President met Social Affairs Minister, Hector Hajjar, today at Baabda Palace.
President Aoun deliberated a number of ministerial issues, in addition to developments related to the issue of displaced Syrians, and the contacts the ministry is making with the concerned authorities. Granting aid to poorest families through the program prepared for this purpose was also tackled.
Ambassador Kastoun:
President Aoun received Lebanon's Ambassador to Liberia and Mali, Henry Kastoun, and was briefed on the conditions of the two communities in Liberia and Mali. Relations between Lebanon and these two countries, were addressed especially that the two communities have a role in the economic and commercial life of both countries.
Condolences to Russian President:
The President sent a telegram to his Russian Counterpart, President Vladimir Putin, condoling the death of former Soviet Union President, Mikhail Gorbachev.
Text:
“I remember the late with much appreciation, especially in terms of the approach he established based on disclosure, rebuilding internally, and maintaining peace globally. Today, as he crossed our world to stand face to face with the rule of history, the Lebanese remember him at this difficult stage of their history, when he visited them twice, in 2003 and 2010, lecturing on demolishing the walls of distance and building bridges of convergence. He was impressed by Lebanon, and Lebanon appreciated him. -- Presidency Press Office

Mikati chairs meeting over telecoms conditions, tackles developments with Grand Serail visitors
NNA/Thursday, 1 September, 2022
Prime Minister-designate, Najib Mikati, on Thursday held a series of ministerial meetings at the Grand Serail. In this framework, Premier-designate Mikati met with the Caretaker Minister of Communications, Eng. Johnny Al-Corm, who announced after the meeting: “I discussed with the Premier the conditions of the telecommunications sector, and there were several proposals that will be studied and discussed with the employees before being announced.” In response to a question about his meeting yesterday with the employees, Al-Corm said: “The meeting was very cordial, and I understand the employees’ predicaments and will try to solve them through available legal means and funds. I have some ideas which I will propose to them, and I might hold a meeting with them this afternoon to find appropriate solutions as soon as possible.” Premier Mikati also met respectively with Deputy Prime Minister Saade Al-Shami, and then with Caretaker Tourism Minister Walid Nassar. Separately, Mikati received MP Ahmed Al-Kheir, who said after the meeting that he discussed with the Premier an array of political and developmental dossiers. MP Al-Kheir also voiced support for the Premier's efforts to form a government as soon as possible. Mikati also received MP Karim Kabbara, and then met with the head of the Civil Service Council, Nisreen Machmouch, who handed him the results of the comprehensive national survey.

Bukhari meets Choucair, private sector delegation
NNA/Thursday, 1 September, 2022
Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon, Walid bin Abdullah Bukhari, on Thursday, received at his residence in Yarzeh, head of the economic bodies in Lebanon, former Minister Mohammad Choucair, with an accompanying economic delegation. As per a statement by the economic bodies, the meeting was an occasion to discuss the means to activate the economic and trade relations between Lebanon and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The economic bodies’ delegation affirmed the Lebanese private sector’s determination to take all available steps to develop economic and trade relations between the two brotherly countries, especially that the Kingdom and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries constitute Lebanon’s strategic economic depth. The participants hoped that all the problems that limit trade exchange between the two countries, especially the issue of exporting Lebanese products to the Kingdom, will be resolved as soon as possible

Lebanese families file lawsuit against army for boat sinking
Associated Press/September 01/2022
Survivors and families of the victims of a sunken migrant boat off the coast of Lebanon on Thursday said they have filed a lawsuit accusing the military of detaining two missing survivors. The boat that sank in April carried dozens of Lebanese, Syrians and Palestinians trying to migrate by sea to Italy. It went down more than five kilometers (three miles) from the port of Tripoli, following a confrontation with the country's navy. Survivors say the Lebanese navy rammed their vessel, while the military claims the migrants' boat collided with one of their ships while trying to get away. The captain of a submarine mission last week said they found the remains of at least 10 migrants and the wreckage of the sunken boat with dents and damages. Now, the survivors say the army has been holding two survivors who have been missing since the night of the sinking and has refused to reveal footage of the wreckage from the submarine mission. They also say the military barred them from attending a press conference with the submarine's captain and navy officials. The military says the investigation is ongoing and the footage from the submarine investigation has been transferred to the military probe. "We've been waiting for you and the state for four months throughout this whole turmoil," Amid Dandachi, a survivor of the doomed boat whose three children and wife drowned, said at the news conference. "I challenge you to show us the videos of the pursuit of the boat."Ten bodies were recovered the night the boat sank -- including one of a child -- while 48 survivors were pulled from the Mediterranean. According to navy estimates, 30 people were believed to have gone down with the boat. The wreck remains some 450 meters (about 1,470 feet) below the surface. The survivors' lawyers have blasted the authorities' sluggish investigation. Diala Chehade, one lawyer representing the survivors and victims' families, urged authorities to retrieve its wreckage. "A key reason of the submarine mission was to try to recover what remains from the bodies so their loved ones can mourn them in dignity and pray for their souls," Chehade said at the press conference. "But there is also another key reason, which is to find and retrieve the drowned boat and forensically examine it." Chehade also called for transferring the probe from the military tribunal to a civic court, claiming it would be more transparent and impartial for such a case. The April sinking was the greatest migrant tragedy for Lebanon in recent years and put the government further on the defensive at a time when the country is in economic free fall and public trust in the state and its institutions is rapidly crumbling. With a population of about 6 million people, including 1 million Syrian refugees, Lebanon has been mired since 2019 in an economic meltdown that has plunged three quarters of the population into poverty. Once a country that received refugees, Lebanon has become a launching pad for dangerous migration by sea to Europe. As the crisis deepened, more Lebanese, as well as Syrian and Palestinian refugees have set off to sea, with security agencies reporting foiled migration attempts almost weekly.

Lebanese Speaker Calls for Electing President that 'Unites Rather Than Divides'

Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 1 September, 2022
Lebanese Speaker Nabih Berri affirmed that the country is ready now "but not forever” to go into indirect negotiations with Israel under US mediation to demarcate the maritime borders. "The ball now is in the US court, and we're not advocates of war, but if our sovereignty gets threatened, we will defend these rights and borders," the Speaker said in remarks on Wednesday. Berri accused the US mediator (Amos Hochstein) of wasting time, saying he has been absent for a month. Berri warned against procrastination and the usurpation of Lebanon's rights. Lebanon's "border and sovereignty are like our honor, we do not negotiate over them, and we will defend them with all our capabilities," the Speaker stressed. Berri was speaking at the 44th anniversary of the disappearance of Amal movement founder Moussa Sadr. On Lebanon’s upcoming presidential elections, Berri said that his parliamentary bloc "will vote for a figure who would gather and unite rather than divide." The term of President Michel Aoun ends on October 31. Berri asserted that the next president should "believe in nationalist and patriotic principles and deeply believe that Israel represents a threat to Lebanon's existence." "Let no one claim to be more sovereign than us," Berri said. Regarding the presidential elections, Berri described as “unacceptable” any attempts to manipulate the constitution to meet the personal ambitions of any candidate. He said it is illegitimate to surrender to some malicious wills that are seeking to plunge the country into a vacuum. Berri touched on internal issues and lashed out at the Free Patriotic Movement in the presence of outgoing Energy Minister Walid Fayyad. He criticized the power outages and the failure to appoint the authority that regulates the sector. "Is it rational for Lebanon to be deprived of Jordanian and Egyptian gas due to failures to form a regulatory commission at the Energy Ministry, which has drained a third of the state's finances, under the excuse of 'changing the law instead of implementing it?'" Berri asked. He warned that Lebanon is going through the worst and most dangerous phase in its history, and some approach it with the worst mentality of “maliciousness and wrath." The Speaker renewed his accusation of the former Libyan regime being responsible for kidnapping Moussa Sadr, saying the kidnapping crime was carried out by the former Libyan government and that Sadr and his companions did not leave for Italy, according to the findings of the panel probing the case. The failure of the current Libyan authorities to cooperate with the Lebanese authorities is considered to be "collusion," according to Berri.

US: Hezbollah’s amassing of weapons on Israel’s northern border must stop
Tovah Lazaroff/Jerusalem Post/September 01/2022
The US warned that UNIFIL peacekeepers are being increasingly blocked from fulfilling their mission.
Hezbollah must stop amassing weapons on Israel’s northern border, the US’s Deputy Ambassador to the United Nations, Richard Mills, told the UN Security Council in New York on Wednesday, after it voted to renew the mandate of the organization’s peacekeepers in southern Lebanon.
“The US shares this council’s significant concern about the state of affairs in southern Lebanon, in particular, Hezbollah’s threatening activities,” he said.
Tensions continue surrounding Lebanon-Israel maritime border demarcation talks
The UNSC vote comes as tension has increased between Israel and Lebanon over their maritime dispute. On Wednesday, Reuters posted a video of two Lebanese ministers symbolically throwing rocks towards Israel.
Since 1978, the UN has maintained a peacekeeping force along the border between the two countries known as the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). Since 2006 it has been specifically tasked with maintaining the cease-fire agreement that ended the Second Lebanon War and that was codified in UNSC Resolution 1701. UNIFIL currently has a force of 10,500 peacekeepers from 48 UN countries. Its patrols focus on the area between the Blue Line and the Litani River, with an eye to preventing another arms build-up that could lead to another war, particularly by a non-state actor such as Hezbollah.
Israel holds that Hezbollah is an Iranian proxy group. UN reiterates Lebanese Army should be only armed force in country
The UNIFIL resolution approved Wednesday reiterated the UN position that the Lebanese Army should be the only armed force in the country. It also called for UNIFIL to be given the freedom of movement needed to fulfill its mandate. Mills said the resolution “reaffirms UNIFIL’s authority to operate independently and to conduct both announced and unannounced patrols.”“We urge the Lebanese authorities as the host state to facilitate UNIFIL’s full and timely access to UNIFIL’s entire area of operations,” Mills said. He echoed a concern raised many times by Israel about the Lebanese failure to ensure that UNIFIL has freedom of movement in its area of operation. “UNIFIL peacekeepers are blocked with increasing frequency from conducting their mandated tasks and accessing sites of concern,” Mills said. The area of between the Blue Line – the internationally recognized border that has yet to be ratified by both countries – and the Litani River “must be free of weapons except for those used by the government of Lebanon and UNIFIL,” he added. “With this resolution [renewing UNIFIL’s mandate] the security council has made clear that Hezbollah’s continued amassing of weapons must stop,” Mills said.
He took particular issue with the actions of a non-governmental environment group called “Green Without Borders” believed to be an affiliate of Hezbollah that operates in southern Lebanon.
US accuses Hezbollah of obstructing UNIFIL
Mills accused the group of obstructing UNIFIL’s actions by placing containers near the border with Israel.
“The proliferation of prefabricated containers placed by Green Without Borders obstructs UNFIL’s access to the Blue Line and is heightening tension in the area, further demonstrating that this so-called environmental group is acting on Hezbollah’s behalf,” Mills said.
UNIFIL must also have access to the tunnels, he said, referring to the sites where Israel has documented that Hezbollah has dug attack tunnels along the border.
The UNSC votes annually to renew UNIFIL’s mandate. This year it added a paragraph to the renewal resolution that is largely the same from year-to-year, to strengthen the language showing its opposition to Hezbollah’s armed presence on Israel’s northern border and to the continued transfer of arms to that group. The new paragraph stated that the UNSC “condemns the continued maintenance of arms outside the control of the Lebanese State by armed groups in violation of resolution 1701 (2006).”
It “recalls paragraph 15 of resolution 1701 (2006) according to which all States shall take the necessary measures to prevent, by their nationals or from their territories or using flag vessels or aircraft, the sale or supply of arms and related materiel to any entity or individual in Lebanon other than those authorized by the Government of Lebanon or UNIFIL.”'

Hezbollah at 40 stronger than ever but has more enemies
Associated Press/September 01/2022
Forty years since Hezbollah was founded at the height of Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon, the group has morphed from a ragtag organization to the largest and most heavily armed militant group in the Middle East. The Iranian-armed and funded Hezbollah, which has marked the anniversary with ceremonies in its strongholds in recent weeks, dominates Lebanon's politics and plays an instrumental role in spreading Tehran's influence throughout the Arab world. But the Shiite powerhouse, once praised around the Arab world for unrelentingly standing against Israel, faces deep criticism on multiple fronts. At home in Lebanon, a significant part of the population opposes its grip on power and accuses it of using the threat of force to prevent change. Across the region, many resent its military interventions in Iraq and in Syria's civil war, where it helped tip the balance of power in favor of President Bashar Assad's forces.
There is no specific date on when Hezbollah was founded, starting as a small, shadowy group of fighters helped by Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. But the group says it happened during the summer of 1982.The 40th anniversary comes this year as Hezbollah officials have warned of a possible new war with Israel over the disputed gas-rich maritime border between Lebanon and Israel.
Over the years, Hezbollah has boosted its military power. It boasts of having 100,000 well-trained fighters. And now its leader says they have precision-guided missiles that can hit anywhere in Israel and prevent ships from reaching Israel's Mediterranean coast, as well as advanced drones that can either strike or gather intelligence. "Hezbollah has evolved tremendously in the past four decades in its organizational structure, global reach, and regional involvements," says Middle East analyst Joe Macaron. Hezbollah's biggest achievement over the past 40 years was its guerrilla war against Israeli forces occupying parts of southern Lebanon. When Israel's army was forced to withdraw in May 2000 — without a peace deal like the ones it reached with Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinians — the victory brought Hezbollah praise from around the Middle East. "Who would have imagined that our enemy could be defeated?" Hezbollah's chief spokesman Mohammed Afif said in a press conference held in July to mark the anniversary. But since the withdrawal, the controversy over Hezbollah has steadily grown as its role has changed. In 2005, Lebanon's former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, the most powerful Sunni politician in the country at the time, was killed in a massive truck bomb in Beirut. A U.N.-backed tribunal accused three Hezbollah members of being behind the assassination. Hezbollah denies the charges. Hezbollah was blamed for other assassinations that followed, mostly targeting Christians and Sunni Muslim politicians and intellectuals critical of the group. Hezbollah denies the accusations. "Hezbollah's danger to Lebanon is huge," says journalist and former Cabinet minister May Chidiac who lost an arm and a leg in a 2005 assassination attempt with explosives placed in her car. She said Hezbollah has been expanding Iran's influence in Lebanon, "and this is a long-term plan that they have been working on for 40 years."
Asked if Hezbollah is to blame for the attempt on her life, Chidiac said: "Of course. There is no doubt about that. All these assassinations are linked." Lebanese have been sharply divided by Hezbollah's determination to keep its weapons since Israel's withdrawal. Some call for its disarmament, saying only the state should have the right to carry weapons. Others support the group's stance that it must continue to be able to defend against Israel. Hezbollah fought Israel to a draw in a 34-day war in the summer of 2006. Israel today considers Hezbollah its most serious immediate threat, estimating that the militant group has some 150,000 rockets and missiles aimed at it. In early July, the Israeli military shot down three unmanned aircraft launched by Hezbollah heading toward an area where an Israeli gas platform was recently installed in the Mediterranean Sea. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah warned that Israel will not be allowed to benefit from its gas fields in the disputed maritime border area before a deal is reached with Lebanon. Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin, the incoming head of Israel's Northern Command, described Hezbollah as a "serious threat," due to both its proximity to Israel and its arsenal.
"This is a very strong terror army," he told The Associated Press in Jerusalem. "Not as strong as the Israeli military, not as strong as the Israeli air force. We are in a completely different place when it comes to our military capabilities. But it can do some significant damage. I have to say that." Afif, the Hezbollah spokesman, said that "as long as there is an aggression, there will be resistance."
In 2008, the government of Western-backed Prime Minister Fouad Saniora decided to dismantle Hezbollah's telecommunications network. Hezbollah responded by capturing by force Sunni neighborhoods in Beirut. It was the worst internal fighting since the 1975-90 civil war ended and marked a breach in Hezbollah's pledge never to use its weapons at home. Perhaps the most controversial decision Hezbollah has made was by sending thousands of fighters to Syria since 2013 to back Assad against opposition fighters, as well as against al-Qaida-linked fighters and the Islamic State group.
The intervention "meant becoming entangled in the internal conflict of a neighboring Arab country rather than fulfilling Hezbollah's claimed mandate of resistance against Israel," Macaron said. Across the Arab world, it cemented an image of Hezbollah as a sectarian Shiite force fighting mainly Sunni insurgents and spreading Iran's power. Hezbollah was also accused of helping Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, leading at least six Arab countries to list the group as a terrorist organization. Within Lebanon, Hezbollah has used its powerful support among the Shiite community and tough tactics to gain political dominance. In 2016, it secured the election of its Christian ally Michel Aoun as president, then it and its allies won a parliament majority in subsequent elections.
But that also sealed its role as part of a governing system whose decades of corruption and mismanagement have been blamed for Lebanon's economic collapse, starting in late 2019. With the currency crumbling and much of the population thrown into poverty, the political elite, which has been running Lebanon since the 1975-90 civil war ended, has resisted reforms. Massive protests demanding the removal of those politicians began in late 2019, and days afterward, hundreds of Hezbollah supporters attacked the protesters in downtown Beirut, forcing them to flee. In October, Hezbollah supporters and a rival militia, the Lebanese Forces, had an armed clash in Beirut over investigations into the 2020 devastating explosion at Beirut's port. Voters punished Hezbollah and its allies in this year's elections, making them lose their parliamentary majority. One former senior figure in Hezbollah, Sobhi Tufaili, pointed to the new image of the group as part of the system in a recent interview with a local TV station. "There is a ship full of thieves," he said, "and Hezbollah is its captain and protector."
'
'Rampant chaos': Lebanon state sector eroded by grinding crisis
Agence France Presse/September 01/2022
Even as he battles Lebanon's summer heat without air-conditioning, Judge Faysal Makki tries not to drink too much water because the toilets at the Justice Palace are broken. His printer still works, but if he wants to use it he needs to bring his own paper and ink cartridges because the ministry can no longer afford office supplies. State institutions have reached a state of disrepair that mirrors Lebanon's broader unravelling amid a political crisis and economic turmoil branded by the World Bank as one of the worst globally in modern times. Even in the corridors of power, the paint is peeling and the lights are off. "There is no paper or ink or pens or envelopes or functioning bathrooms or even running water," Makki, who has been a judge for 21 years, told AFP. "I try not to drink water on the job so I won't have to go home or to the nearby offices of the syndicate of lawyers just to use the bathroom," he said. Staff are sometimes trapped in a lift because of power cuts, or are forced to light their way down dark staircases with their mobile phone flashlights. Makki said one colleague broke her arm when she tripped and fell down the stairs. Ever more civil servants have gone on strike or just stay home with their employer's blessing, because the commute to work would eat up their entire salary or more. "The basic requirements for a public institution are no longer available," said Makki.
'Embodiment of poverty'
Lebanon's downward spiral has been met with inaction from authorities, who have yet to chart a path out of the three-year-old economic crisis they are widely blamed for. Parliament, which has yet to approve a 2022 budget, has rarely convened since it was elected three months ago. Lebanon's president and prime minister have failed to agree on a new government since the outgoing cabinet's mandate expired in May. With the Lebanese pound losing more than 90 percent of its value against the dollar on the black market in recent years, public sector salaries have slumped as low as $40 a month. A 50-year-old mother of two who has worked for the interior ministry for 26 years says she now has little incentive to go to work. The civil servant in a district east of Beirut, who asked not to be named for fear of reprisals, says she now only goes into the office once every two weeks, just above the threshold for a de facto resignation.
Without electricity, employees there have to climb seven flights of stairs in the dark to reach the office, the woman said. "The tiles on the stairs are chipped," she said. "Every time you go up or down, you risk breaking your neck." Inside the office, "there is no air conditioning or paper or photocopy machines or pens. You have to take a bottle of water with you to the bathroom because there is no running water." The woman, whose salary dropped from $1,600 a month to about $75, said she never imagined things would get this bad."The embodiment of poverty is being an employee of the Lebanese state," she said.
'Total collapse'
Across Lebanon, decaying institutions have deprived citizens of the most basic services.
Power cuts at the parliament have forced lawmakers to postpone sessions, and the General Security agency at one point this year ran out of passports. The Lebanese army can barely afford to pay and feed its soldiers, forcing many to quit or take up second jobs. At the environment ministry, the damage caused by the massive and deadly August 2020 Beirut port explosion has yet to be fully repaired. "The doors are still broken, so they don't close," caretaker Environment Minister Nasser Yassin told AFP, adding that the dividing walls and false ceilings are also still in disrepair. Some meeting rooms have no lighting, and employees bring their own toilet paper. The main municipality building in the northern city of Tripoli -- which was torched last year by demonstrators angered by the economic crisis -- is a standout example of state decay. Employees there work in offices with crumbling, soot-covered walls, no cooling and barely any lighting. "Things are only going to get worse," said Riad Yamak, the former Tripoli mayor who was removed in September following a political dispute.
"We are heading towards total collapse and rampant chaos."

The End of the 'Strong Reign'
Hanna Saleh/Asharq Al Awsat/September 01/2022
Today, on the 1st of September, Lebanon sees the term of its president end. It is true that Article 73 of the Lebanese constitution leaves it up to the Parliamentary Speaker to choose a day this month to hold a parliamentarian session to elect a new president, and he will probably bide his time in hope of a Constitutional Council ruling that slightly alters the makeup of parliament. This is no secret, as details of confidential conversations continue to leak, and the propaganda promoting electoral fraud is in full swing! As he had done in his comments on the course of the investigation into the port blast, Hassan Nasrallah made a “prediction,” saying that two or three deputies would change this time!
Until then, Article 75 of the constitution stipulates that “the Chamber meeting to elect the president of the republic shall be considered an electoral body and not a legislative assembly. It must proceed immediately, without discussion of any other act, to elect the Head of the State.”
One thing we know for sure is the “strong reign” ended a long time ago, and it entered the history of presidential terms as the one in which the Lebanese were sent to hell, and the country was threatened as a political entity. No measures or decisions were issued to address the collapses that have hit every aspect of the lives of the Lebanese. The country has been looted, and its people are on the brink of hunger. The homeland has become a migration center for skilled Lebanese youths, and increasing numbers of Lebanese are choosing to board “boats of death.” The latter stages of his term saw the broadest ever strike carried out by public sector employees that threatened severe consequences, and to top it all off, Lebanon’s judges declared their first open-ended strike in the country’s history.
One could argue for or against the Judges’ move, but it wouldn’t have taken place, and the course of justice in the country would not have been disrupted if it were not for the “Nitrate regime,” which subordinated the judiciary and suspended its independence. The humiliation aggravated when Aoun, contradicting the constitution, decided to refrain from signing the decree to appoint new judges in 2017.
Despite the arrogance of the Palace and the noise it made, as well as its threats intended to conceal its desire to launch a coup that reflects the president’s hysterical push to cling to power, all these attempts amount to nothing more than last-minute saber-rattling. Though this hysteria failed to ensure that his international sanction son-in-law would inherit his position, Aoun’s bet that it would do has cost Lebanon dearly.
Among these costs are unprecedented isolation from the Arab world and the international community and Lebanese being forced to watch on as Hezbollah hijacked the state and turned the country into a tool of the Persian project against the region. The fact is that since Aoun became president, his only priorities have been to serve his partisan interests and his ambitions. Real power was wielded outside the Presidential Palace, as nothing other than the “rights” of his team and solidifying his hold on positions of power to ensure its longevity concerned the president.
In the months since the general elections on May fifteenth, the president fought a fierce battle with the prime minister-designate over shares in the government. Mikati did mention objectives or a program in their back and forths, nor was he concerned with addressing the implications of the election results that saw a strong punitive vote against the political class. His priority is well known. He wants to remain prime minister. On the other hand, the Palace was totally detached from what the country is going through as the pain gets worse and social tensions spike.
Aoun prioritized perpetuating Bassil’s control over the government situation during the inevitable phase in which Lebanon will be without a president... and he failed! Time is obviously not on the side of the Palace, and its capacity to dictate the next president diminishes by the day. Regardless of his fatwas, Aoun will leave the Palace on time. Once he does, Bassil will go back to being a deputy subjected to American Magnitsky Act sanctions!
Things are worrying for the Palace as Aoun’s term has left nothing but immense suffering behind it, and the page on Bassil’s “leadership” has turned though he was not convinced that the October 17 revolution had put his political career behind him. Despite the electoral law being tailored to suit sectarian parties, the results altered the composition of parliament. Hezbollah lost its majority, and the other sectarian parties, as the party and its partners in the sectarian-quota-based spoil-sharing regime failed to win a majority. The Palace, relying on Hezbollah, thus rushed to stir division over the presidency, opening the door to sharp Maronite-Sunni tensions!
Deluded into thinking it could impose a “deal,” the president tried to seize the power of the prime minister, turning the Presidential Palace into a hub for inflaming sectarian tensions. Aoun turned to the head of the Maronite League, who claimed that Aoun “does not believe that a government which lacks the needed standards, as well as parliament’s confidence, can fill the vacuum at the level of the head of the state.”
We saw a lot of nonsense and fatwas coming from the Palace over the past few weeks as Aoun attempted to conceal his intention to launch a coup after his term ends. Today, we see sectarian tensions being inflamed and efforts to stir panic regarding the prospect of a vacancy. It seems that Aoun and his associates have overlooked the fact that the president’s office has been vacant for decades and that it was emptiest during his term… Beyond a shadow of a doubt, the man who really holds the levers of power and has seized the authority of the presidency is behind this smokescreen the president is seeking to create. Hezbollah runs this Don Quixote battle. Aoun’s propositions do not harm the party, and it has no problem with him staying in Baabda and allowing the devastation to aggravate. Bassil’s gimmicks do not bother Hezbollah, nor did his gradually increasing hold over the presidency... Hezbollah’s priority is that Aoun does what he had been entrusted to do. The party wants either a new president who perpetuates Aoun’s term or a president it can invest in and exploit until the kidnapped state vanishes altogether. As far as Hezbollah is concerned, this brings it closer to achieving its ultimate goal of taking over the country and annexing it, turning it into part of the Ayatollah’s empire!
His term ended a long time ago, and it is his obsession to remain in power, imposing himself on Lebanon and the Lebanese, that is being exposed. More than ever, Lebanon is caught between two projects. One is Hezbollah’s project- eroding the country so it can be annexed. The other is the October 17 Revolution’s project for change, which seeks to achieve the people’s hopes and dreams of the establishment of a constitutional state of law and order in which there is accountability, equality before justice is guaranteed, and pluralism and democracy are safeguarded. This project demands political organization around a comprehensive vision, leading to the emergence of a “historical bloc” that cuts across regions and sects, creating a genuine political alternative.
The bloc of deputies elected by those aspiring to this change has been entrusted to develop a reading of the situation, present a vision for how to change it, and decide on a president that can help it do so. Without pushing delusions, the major bet is on what they will do to ensure that the election of the new president becomes a pitstop on the road to change. In parallel, there is also a need to prepare for mass mobilization if we see the “legalized” seizure of the seats won by deputies elected by the people in the hope that they could facilitate change.
Bluntly put, with this dreadful, plunderous, murderous political class, the state hijacked, and the sovereignty of the country and the constitution violated repeatedly, we cannot rely on this class’s proposals. Even though they try to hide it behind empty rhetoric about criteria and the eligibility of candidates, their only goal is consolidating their positions of power with this sectarian-quota-based spoil-sharing regime. Electing a president that meets the political class’s criteria will not give us back our republic, reinstate the constitution, or turn Lebanon into a country of law. It would only perpetuate the vacuum. In light of the current balance of power, it would do little more than strengthening the desire of the Lebanese to leave the hell that has become their country.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 01-02/2022
Eleven Coptic Churches “Catch Fire” Over Two Weeks in Egypt
Raymond Ibrahim/Coptic Solidarity/September 01/2022
The Church of Saint Bishoy in New Minya, one of the eleven churches to “catch fire.”
Once again, only the proverbial tip of the iceberg of persecution Christians experience throughout the Muslim world reaches the West: on Sunday, Aug. 14, 2022, U.S. media outlets reported that a Coptic church “caught fire,” leading to 41 Christian deaths, many of them children. The official explanation remains that “faulty electric wiring” was responsible.
Left completely unreported in the Western press, however, is that, all throughout the month of August—particularly within the dates of an important religious season, when churches were especially packed—a total of eleven Coptic churches in Egypt “caught fire.” Two (Imbaba and Minya) were major, some were minor, and some were caught early enough to prevent serious damage, thanks to heightened vigilance among the Christians themselves. A list of the eleven follows:
Aug. 8: The Church of Saint Paul in Ard al-Golf, Cairo.
Aug. 14: The Church of Abu Seifein in Imbaba, Cairo (where the aforementioned 41 Christians were burned to death).
Aug. 15: The Church of the Holy Virgin and Saint Moses in Kirdassa, Giza.
Aug. 16: The Church of Saint Bishoy in New Minya.
Aug. 16: The Church of Saint Moses in the City of Six of October, Giza.
Aug. 17: The Church of Saint Moses the Black in Alexandria.
Aug. 19: The Church of the Holy Virgin and Abanoub in al-Baragil, Giza.
Aug. 20: The Church of Saint George in Badran, Cairo.
Aug. 20: The Church of the Angel Rafael in Ghayt al-‘Inab, Alexandria.
Aug 21: The Monastery of the Virgin in Drunka, Assiut.
Aug 16 & 21: The Church of Saint Mary the Egyptian in al-‘Imarawa, Alexandria.
In every one of these fires, Egyptian authorities denied arson as a possible cause, citing instead “natural” or accidental causes such as faulty wiring, electric overloads, etc.
Meanwhile, in the real world, the idea that arson was responsible for at least some of the fires is immensely plausible if not probable—not least because fanatic Muslims have literally set hundreds of Coptic Christian churches aflame in Egypt over the decades (as discussed here). In fact, while the spectacle of churches “catching fire” has become rather commonplace—a historic Catholic church was just “reduced to ashes” in Canada, aka the “church-burning centre of the Western world”—perhaps no nation can claim the “honor” of seeing so many of its churches burn as Egypt.
There are, moreover, other curious “coincidences” surrounding these recent church fires in Egypt. Not only did they all occur during an important holiday on the Coptic Orthodox calendar—the Virgin Mary fast (Aug.7-21), when churches are especially packed—but that timeframe also coincided with the “anniversary” of when Muslim Brotherhood sympathizers torched 62 Coptic churches in Egypt in 2013, suggesting that the same elements may have been “commemorating” those events by burning more churches and, in at least the case of the Church of Abu Seifein, killing more Christians.
Finally, it’s worth noting that, although there are well over half a million mosques and prayer halls in Egypt—compared to only some three thousand churches—not one Muslim worship center “caught fire” during this same timeframe.
Trying to overturn the narrative that “faulty electric wiring” is behind all of these recent church fires is not helped by the fact that what the Christian victims themselves say is being suppressed and underreported in the Egyptian media. The fires that erupted in the Church of Saint Mary the Egyptian are a good case in point. On Aug. 16, witnesses saw someone on the balcony of a residential building adjacent to the church twice hurl some combustible substance onto the top floor of the church. Christians called the authorities but instead of blaming the apartment in question—and thus risking worse by way of “reprisals”—the church diplomatically asked the authorities to investigate with due diligence, especially the nearby building. The only thing that came out of it was another fiery missile hurled onto the church on Aug 21. The facts—including those so easily deduced—speak for themselves. Meanwhile, whereas Egypt is reporting all eleven of these church fires as unplanned “accidents,” only one—where 41 Christians died (of “faulty wiring”)—received any mention at all in Western media, perhaps lest readers connect the many not-so-coincidental dots and reach their own conclusions.

Iranian Commander Says Time for Ground War Against Israel
Israel Today/September 01/2022
Top Iranian military commander believes Hezbollah and the Palestinians are ready to actually invade and conquer Israel. Israel might be powerful militarily, but a top Iranian commander says that doesn’t mean it can’t be beaten with a well-executed invasion. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s website posted an interview this month with Hossein Salami, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who argued that the Palestinians and Hezbollah must launch a “ground war.” According to translations provided by MEMRI, Salami lauded Palestinian and Hezbollah missile attacks on Israel, which have sparked numerous recent mini-wars in southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. But, he argued, “missiles are excellent for deterrence or for waging static wars. They do not liberate the lands.”To actually achieve the Palestinians’ long-stated goal of destroying Israel and supplanting it with a State of Palestine, they must move beyond isolated terrorist assaults and missile barrages. One might rightly wonder how in the world a Palestinian and Hezbollah ground force, even one that numbered of many thousands of troops, could possibly overcome the air power and armored forces at Israel’s disposal.
Salami believes this is possible because Israel’s army, as well-equipped as it is, lacks the same level of religious fervor and belief that characterizes the Hezbollah, the Palestinians and the Islamic Republic. He added: “The Palestinians are ready today for ground warfare. Israel’s biggest weakness is ground warfare.”With reporting by JNS.

Ex-IDF intel chief reveals more details on Israel's role in Soleimani killing
Yonah Jeremy Bob/Jerusalem Post/September 01/2022
"The Americans’ view of him was radically altered after they saw the intelligence from us and the level of danger he [continued to] present to Americans," former IDF intel. chief Tamir Heyman said. Why did former IDF Intelligence chief Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Tamir Heyman reveal in December 2021, shortly after he had retired, that Israel assisted with intelligence aspects of the US assassination of Qasem Soleimani? US drones assassinated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force commander, a nemesis of Israel for decades, as he left Baghdad Airport on January 3, 2020.
How extensive was Israel's role?
Although NBC News and Yahoo News had published detailed pieces about Israel’s role, all official Israeli echelons had been mum on the issue. The censor had actively prevented Israeli journalists, including those with The Jerusalem Post, from providing details for nearly two years – until Heyman broke the news. So why did Heyman, who is now managing director of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) think tank, think it was appropriate to discuss Israel’s role publicly, without fears about angering Iran into retaliation? In an interview with the Post, he said: “I stand by what I announced. We gave intelligence that incriminated and proved the responsibility of Soleimani for killing Americans. The Americans’ view of him was radically altered after they saw the intelligence from us and the level of danger he [continued to] present to Americans.” “I stand by what I announced. We gave intelligence that incriminated and proved the responsibility of Soleimani for killing Americans. The Americans’ view of him was radically altered after they saw the intelligence from us and the level of danger he [continued to] present to Americans.” Former IDF Intelligence chief Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Tamir Heyman. “The Americans needed Soleimani during the fight against ISIS [which continued until 2017-2018],” Heyman said. “But they did not forgive him for the attacks he had carried out against Americans. Still, they understood he was necessary and effective against ISIS. “There needed to be intelligence information to change things after ISIS. He [Soleimani] rechanneled his violence toward Americans and [created new] national security dangers for America. We gave this [intelligence information] to them. This was the trigger that changed their concept of who Soleimani is. It took a period of months, but eventually[,] they understood.”
What do the experts think about Iran?
According to many analysts, Iran has been constantly trying to target Israelis with terrorist attacks. Reflecting on the larger impact of eliminating Soleimani, Heyman said: “They accomplished one of the most successful operations against Iran in the region even to this day. The assassination of Soleimani was a point in which there was a paradigm shift. "They accomplished one of the most successful operations against Iran in the region even to this day."Former IDF Intelligence chief Maj.-Gen. (ret.) Tamir Heyman “His successors have not been as effective. He was a truly unique figure. It was like the architect of a building disappearing, where the workers keep building. At the beginning, it looks like the same building, but later the building loses aspects of its shape because no one tells them when to build the roof and the porches.” Heyman broke the news of Israeli intelligence involvement as part of an interview with Malam magazine, which is published by the Israeli Intelligence Heritage and Commemoration Center. “Soleimani’s assassination is an achievement since our main enemies, in my eyes, are the Iranians,” he told Malam, discussing two major assassination operations in which Israel played a role (with Soleimani referring to an intelligence role). Heyman declined to address the specifics of Israel’s intelligence role reported by NBC and Yahoo regarding allegedly tracking Soleimani’s numerous cellphones and providing that tracking information to the US.

Macron Hopeful of Iran Nuclear Deal in Next Few Days
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 1 September, 2022
France's president said on Thursday he hoped a deal to revive the Iran nuclear deal would be concluded in the coming days. "I hope that in the next few days the JCPOA will be concluded," Emmanuel Macron said, referring to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action as the deal is formally known, in a speech to French ambassadors. Iran needs stronger guarantees from Washington for the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal, its foreign minister said in Moscow on Wednesday, adding that the UN atomic watchdog should drop its "politically motivated probes" of Tehran's nuclear work.
After 16 months of indirect talks between Tehran and Washington, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Aug. 8 the EU had laid down a final offer to overcome an impasse for the revival of the agreement. Iran's top diplomat, Hossein Amirabdollahian, said Tehran was carefully reviewing Washington's response to the text, which was conveyed to Iran last week by the EU as coordinator of the nuclear talks. "Iran is carefully reviewing the EU-drafted text ... We need stronger guarantees from the other party to have a sustainable deal," Amirabdollahian told a joint news conference with his Russian counterpart in Moscow.

Israeli Missiles Target Aleppo Airport, Damascus Countryside
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 1 September, 2022
Four Israeli missiles targeted a runway at Aleppo airport and warehouses in its vicinity, causing fire and explosions, likely due to the outbreak of a batch of Iranian missiles, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported. The official Syrian News Agency (SANA) quoted a military source as saying that Israel launched a missile on Aleppo airport, adding that the aggression caused some material damage. An hour after the Aleppo airport was targeted, the Observatory monitored Israeli shelling of military sites in the al-Kaswa area in Damascus countryside, coinciding with the air defenses attacking targets over the region. No casualties have been reported. This is the 23rd Israeli attack on Syrian territory in 2022. The last Israeli strike in Syria was recorded last week, when missile shelling targeted sites in the vicinity of Hama and Tartous in western Syria. On August 25, the Observatory reported that Israeli jets renewed their attacks in the west Hama countryside. The airstrikes targeted positions and warehouses of Iranian-backed militias on Wadi al-Oyoun road, west of Masyaf and the Scientific Research Center. Weapons and ammunition were destroyed while the fire broke out in areas in the Masyaf countryside against the backdrop of Israeli shelling and defense missiles that tried to confront the strikes. No casualties were reported.

Israel Fires Missiles at Syrian Airports – Report
JNS/September 01/2022
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said it was the 23rd such attack of the year.
(JNS) The Israel Air Force (IAF) launched missiles at the airport in the northern Syria city of Aleppo on Wednesday, according to Syrian state media. Subsequently, air-defense systems in Damascus fired at Israeli missiles aimed south of the capital. “At nearly 8 p.m., the Israeli enemy targeted Aleppo International Airport with a missile strike that caused material damage to the airport,” a military source told Syrian state news agency SANA late in the day. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based opposition war monitor, reported that this is the 23rd Israeli attack in Syria in 2022 and that the one near the capital came about an hour after the one at the airport. “Four Israeli shells hit a runway of the Aleppo International Airport and warehouses in its vicinity, causing fire and explosions to erupt, likely to be due to the explosion of a batch of Iranian missiles,” asserted the observatory. The observatory also claimed that Russian and regime forces were positioned at the airport. Furthermore, the Russians knew about the upcoming alleged Israeli airstrikes and had begun mobilizing 10 minutes before the attack, according to the organization.

Syrian FM Says Israel 'Playing with Fire'
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 1 September, 2022
Syria's foreign minister said on Thursday that Israel was "playing with fire" following Israeli strikes near Damascus and on Aleppo's international airport the previous evening. The strikes resulted in material damage only, according to state news agency SANA, which said Syria's air defenses shot down a number of Israeli missiles around the capital.In comments reported by SANA on Thursday, Syria's top diplomat Faisal al-Meqdad said Israel was threatening regional security. "Israel is playing with fire and is putting the regional military and security situations at risk of an explosion," the agency reported him as saying.
"Syria will not remain silent regarding the repeated Israeli attacks and the Israelis will pay the price sooner or later."Israel has staged numerous strikes in Syria in recent years, mainly targeting weapons convoys or stores belonging to allied fighters from Iran.

US Pressures for Calm in West Bank, Curbs Palestinian Efforts for ‘Full UN Membership’
Ramallah -Kifah ZbounAsharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 1 September, 2022
The United States is pressuring the Palestinian Authority (PA) to stop its request for "full UN membership" and pushing a plan to ensure calm in the West Bank, according to a Palestinian source.The source told Asharq Al-Awsat that the US envoy, Hady Amr, arrived in Ramallah on Wednesday, ahead of the Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, Barbara Leaf, who will visit Tel Aviv and Ramallah. The source said that the US focuses on two main issues including blocking the Palestinian movement to obtain full membership at the UN because that would embarrass Washington, which may resort to veto at some point. The second issue is maintaining calm in the West Bank, pushing forward Israeli facilities, and strengthening the Palestinian economy. Leaf is supposed to arrive in Tel Aviv first, where she will meet Israeli officials, including Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar and National Security Adviser Eyal Hulata. According to the Israeli Walla website, she will head to Ramallah and meet Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and his aides. On Wednesday, Amr met Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh, who stressed the need for the US to fulfill its promises towards Palestine and support its move to request "full membership" in the UN. Shtayyeh stressed that the Palestinian people and leadership are facing considerable pressure. He explained that Israel is escalating its unprecedented repressive measures, including the incursions into al-Aqsa mosque, arrests, extrajudicial killings, and appropriation of land, and there is no political horizon amid the problematic financial situation on the other. "We seek to revive the political file again by requesting to become a full state membership at the UN in light of the absence of political initiatives to resolve the Palestinian issue," said Shtayyeh, calling on the US not to disrupt these efforts and recognize the State of Palestine. The premier briefed the US envoy on the progress in implementing the financial and administrative reform agenda and steps taken in various fields to reduce expenditures and face the financial crisis.He also discussed the financial challenges caused by the illegal Israeli deductions of Palestinian tax revenues and the drop in international assistance.

Biden Urges Iraq 'National Dialogue' in Call with Kadhimi
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 1 September, 2022
US President Joe Biden urged Iraqis Wednesday to support dialogue to resolve a months-long political crisis that erupted into violence, in a call with Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi. Biden “commended” Kadhimi's “personal leadership during escalating tensions and violence over a 24-hour period earlier this week," the White House said in a statement after their call, adding the two leaders agreed to stay in touch in the coming weeks. Biden and Kadhimi "welcomed the return of security to the streets, and called on all Iraqi leaders to engage in a national dialogue to forge a common way forward consistent with Iraq's constitution and laws," the statement said. The US leader also voiced support for "a sovereign and independent Iraq.”Kadhimi had in mid-August called for a national dialogue involving main political leaders, although Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr did not agree to participate. Tensions escalated sharply Monday when Sadr said he would quit politics, with his supporters storming an area in Baghdad's high-security Green Zone in violence that killed 30 people.

Precarious calm in Baghdad as roots of crisis endure, US praises Kadhimi's performance
Agents/The Arab Weekly/September 01/2022
Iraqi paramilitary forces killed in heavy clashes with the supporters of powerful Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr were laid to rest on Wednesday as Iraq’s parliament speaker announced three days of mourning. Normal life crept back in Baghdad after a bloody 24 hours when the supporters of Sadr clashed with Iraqi security forces inside the heavily-fortified Green Zone, the seat of Iraq's government. At least 30 people, both Sadr loyalists and Iraqi security forces, were killed and over 400 people were wounded after trading fire for hours this week. Sadr later called on his supporters to withdraw on Tuesday, spurring a de-escalation of hostilities. Nevertheless, the threat of more clashes looms as the political rivalry between Sadr and his Iran-backed rivals in the Coordination Framework has not been settled. Tensions between the two camps are still palpable and a way out of Iraq's ten-month political vacuum does not appear within reach. Both camps disagree over the appropriate mechanism to dissolve parliament and hold early elections, key demands of Sadr. His party won the 2021 federal election but was not able to form a coalition government that excluded his Iran-friendly rivals. Sadr's representative, who goes by the Twitter moniker Mohammed Saleh al-Iraqi, called on Iran to “rein in her camel” in Iraq, a reference to the Framework, or face the consequences. The strong language was unusual from Sadr's camp, indicating tensions are still simmering.
The statement came in response to an earlier plea from the Framework calling on the parliament to convene, a move Sadr's supporters prevented by storming the legislative assembly in July. A funeral procession for four members of the Popular Mobilisation Forces, a state-sanctioned umbrella of paramilitaries among which Iran-backed Shia militias are the most powerful, was held in Baghdad. Key leaders from the Framework attended.
Iraq's Parliament Speaker Mohammed Halbousi declared three days of mourning for those killed in the clashes, according to a statement from his office. Shop-owners in the capital's markets said they were relieved the army had lifted the curfew, fearing a drawn-out conflict would have undermined their livelihoods. Many residents said they feared a return to clashes. Both Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi and President Ibrahim Salih warned the protagonists on Tuesday that more violence and chaos could lead only to a political vacuum that will undermine the stability and security of Iraq.Kadhimi also said he would “vacate his post” if the complicated political situation in the country continues. In the meanwhile, the Iraqi premier has received US support for his handling of the crisis with a telephone call from President Biden. "The President commended Prime Minister Kadhimi's personal leadership during escalating tensions and violence over a 24-hour period earlier this week," the White House said in a statement Wednesday after their call, adding the two leaders agreed to stay in touch in the coming weeks. Biden and the Iraq prime minister "welcomed the return of security to the streets" and called on local leaders to engage in dialogue in line with Iraq's constitution, the White House said. The White House said that Biden "praised the performance of the Iraqi Security Forces and extended condolences to the families of those killed in the recent fighting." The White House readout did not mention Sadr by name

Four Killed as Violent Clashes Move to Iraq's Basra
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 1 September, 2022
Four people were killed in clashes among rival Shiite militants in the southern Iraqi city of Basra that took place overnight and on Thursday morning, local security officials said. It was the latest violence to hit the country in a political crisis that pits followers of Moqtada al-Sadr against mostly Iran-aligned parties and paramilitary groups. The security officials said the clashes took place in the center of Basra, Iraq's main oil-producing hub. Two of those killed were members of Sadr's Peace Brigades militia, Reuters quoted them as saying. Violence re-erupted in Iraq this week as armed supporters of Sadr fought with security forces and Iran-aligned gunmen in Baghdad in the fiercest street battles the capital has seen for years.An intractable political deadlock between the two rival Shiite camps has left Iraq without a government since an October election. It has also deepened dysfunction and instability as Iraqis struggle to move on from decades of war, sanctions, civil strife and endemic corruption.

Iraq’s Green Zone Breathes a Sigh of Relief as ‘Anxious’ Calm Returns to Baghdad
Baghdad - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 1 September, 2022
Calm returned to Iraqi streets on Wednesday, with the Green Zone breathing a sigh of relief after concrete barriers were removed from its surroundings, allowing for all traffic to pass without exception. A day earlier, bloody clashes had swept the Iraqi capital, Baghdad. Comprehensive conflict had erupted between followers of the Sadrist Movement and the Coordination Framework. Baghdad’s Republic Bridge and Suspension Bridge witnessed the return of normal movement, which facilitated the crossing between the two sides of the Iraqi capital. During the clashes, Sadrists assumed control of the Republic Bridge while the Coordination Framework followers overran the Suspension Bridge. Taking note of the ongoing dispute between Sadrist Movement leader Muqtada al-Sadr and Coordination Framework leaders, observers described the calm that has returned to the capital as “anxious.”Coordination Framework leaders, except for Hadi al-Amiri and Haider al-Abadi, did not confront Sadr’s decision to stop the violence with support. Instead, the group released a controversial statement that claims victory over the Sadrist Movement. For his part, Sadr moved from exclusively accusing armed factions of insolence to casting the accusation against the entirety of the Coordination Framework and the government it intends to form. At a time when the Iraqi President Barham Salih urged the Coordination Framework to communicate with Sadr, to prepare for early elections, Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi threatened to vacate his position as prime minister. The situation remains open to all possibilities, and attention is turning to what will be issued by the Federal Supreme Court regarding the requests to dissolve the Parliament. The court had decided to postpone consideration of the case to dissolve Parliament until Thursday. On Tuesday, the Federal Supreme Court had postponed hearing the case for dissolving Parliament against the background of a general curfew and disruption of state institutions.

UN team heads to Ukraine nuclear plant despite shelling
Agence France Presse/Thursday, 1 September, 2022
U.N. inspectors pressed on towards a Russian-held nuclear plant in southern Ukraine Thursday despite an early shelling attack, as the ICRC warned the consequences of a strike on the facility could be "catastrophic". Just before the 14-strong team from International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) left for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, Ukraine said Russian troops had shelled the town next door. The area around the plant -- Europe's largest nuclear facility -- has suffered repeated shelling, with both sides accusing the other of responsibility, sparking global concern over the risk of an accident.
"It is high time to stop playing with fire and instead take concrete measures to protect this facility.. from any military operations," ICRC chief Robert Mardini told reporters in Kyiv. "The slightest miscalculation could trigger devastation that we will regret for decades."Ukraine's nuclear agency Energoatom said later that one of the six reactors at the Russian-held nuclear plant was shut down Thursday as an emergency protection measure following the shelling in the area. "Today at 4:57 am (0157 GMT), due to another mortar shelling by the Russian occupying forces at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant site, the emergency protection was activated and operating power unit 5 was shut down," it said. Mardini said it was "encouraging" that the IAEA team was en route to inspect the plant because the stakes were "immense"."When hazardous sites become battlegrounds, the consequences for millions of people and the environment can be catastrophic and last many years," he said. Just before leaving the southern city of Zaporizhzhia, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said his team had been updated about the shelling but would press on anyway. "We are not stopping," he vowed, despite being aware there that in crossing the frontline into Russian-held territory, there was a security "grey area.. where the risks are significant".
"I believe we have to proceed with this. We have a very important mission to accomplish."
Fresh shelling attack
Earlier, the mayor of Energodar, the town next to the plant, said it had come under sustained attack early on Thursday. In an 8:00 am (0500 GMT) update on Telegram, Mayor Dmytro Orlov said that since dawn, Russian troops had "shelled Energodar with mortars and used automatic weapons and rockets," posting images of damaged buildings and spiraling smoke. But Moscow accused Kyiv of smuggling in up to 60 military "saboteurs", saying they reached the area near the plant just after dawn and that Russian troops had taken "measures to annihilate the enemy". Grossi on Wednesday said the IAEA would seek to establish a "permanent presence" at the plant to avoid a nuclear disaster at the facility which is located on the frontline of the fighting. "My mission is... to prevent a nuclear accident and preserve the largest nuclear power plant in Europe," he said.
- 'Explicit safety guarantees' -
Although Zaporizhzhia is normally about a two-hour drive from the plant, it was not immediately long it would take the IAEA team to get there after crossing the frontline into Russian-held areas. The plant has been occupied by Russian troops since March and Ukraine has accused Russia of deploying hundreds of soldiers and storing ammunition there. Both Moscow and Kyiv have accused each other of staging "provocations" aimed at disrupting the work of the IAEA mission. "Sadly, Russia is not stopping its provocations precisely in the direction the mission needs to travel to reach the plant," President Volodymyr Zelensky said late Tuesday after meeting Grossi. And in Moscow, the Russian defense ministry accused Kyiv of "continued provocations aimed at disrupting the work of the IAEA mission" saying it had shelled the area around the plant on Tuesday hitting a building containing "the solid radioactive waste processing complex".
- Counteroffensive in the south -
Meanwhile, intensive fighting raged across the nearby southern region of Kherson where Ukraine began a counteroffensive on Monday. Most of the region and its provincial capital of the same name were seized by Russian forces at the start of the invasion six months ago. With the war in the eastern Donbas region largely stalled, analysts have said for weeks that combat is likely to shift south to break the stalemate before winter comes. Meanwhile, a British medic volunteering in Ukraine died in the fighting, the foreign ministry in London said on Thursday. It said he had died on August 24 but gave no further details.

Australia, France deepen defense ties after breakdown
Associated Press/Thursday, 1 September, 2022
Australia and France are strengthening their defense cooperation and deepening their diplomatic ties, officials said Thursday, as the two countries seek to heal wounds from a controversy over a secret submarine contract that infuriated France a year ago.
During his last stop on a European tour, Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles assured France that his country is trying to "turn the page" and "move on" from the breakdown in relations. The controversy erupted after Australia canceled a military contract with France that was worth billions of euros (dollars) and took its business instead to the United States and Britain. "It's critically important that our relationship moves forward with frankness, with respect and with honesty," Marles said in a joint statement with his French counterpart, Sébastien Lecornu, in the western French port city of Brest. The two ministers said they were committed to projects that will strengthen their joint defense capabilities and protect their "shared interests in a prosperous, resilient and secure" Indo-Pacific region. They agreed to "enhance military cooperation," including more robust joint military exercises, joint regional deployments, training activities and improved sharing of intelligence. "Like all friendships, it has experienced ups and downs," Lecornu, the French defense minister, said of their bilateral relations.

To China's fury, UN accuses Beijing of Uyghur rights abuses
Associated Press/Thursday, 1 September, 2022
The U.N. accused China of serious human rights violations that may amount to "crimes against humanity" in a long-delayed report examining a crackdown on Uyghurs and other mostly Muslim ethnic groups. Beijing on Thursday denounced the assessment as a fabrication cooked up by Western nations. Human rights groups have accused China of sweeping a million or more people from the minority groups into detention camps where many have said they were tortured, sexually assaulted, and forced to abandon their language and religion. The camps were just one part of what the rights organizations have called a ruthless campaign against extremism in the far western province of Xinjiang that also included draconian birth control policies and all-encompassing restrictions on people's movement. The assessment from the Geneva-based U.N. human rights office largely corroborated earlier reporting by researchers, advocacy groups and the news media, and it added the weight of the world body to the conclusions. But it was not clear what impact it would have.
Still, among Uyghurs who have fled overseas, there was a palpable sense of relief that the report had finally seen the light of day since many worried that it would never be published. Several saw it as a vindication of their cause and of years of advocacy work.
"The report is pretty damning, and a strong indictment on China's crimes against humanity," said Rayhan Asat, a Uyghur lawyer whose brother is imprisoned in Xinjiang. "For years, the Chinese government has said the Uyghurs are terrorists. Now, we can point to them and say, you're the terrorists." Human rights groups, Japan and Germany also quickly welcomed the report, which had become caught up in a tug-of-war between China and major Western nations as well as human rights groups that have criticized the repeated delays in releasing the document. Many Geneva diplomats believe it was nearly complete a year ago. The assessment released late Wednesday concluded that China has committed serious human rights violations under its anti-terrorism and anti-extremism policies and calls for "urgent attention" from the U.N., the world community and China itself to address them. Human rights groups renewed calls for the U.N. Human Rights Council, which meets next month, to set up an independent international body to investigate the allegations. But China showed no sign of backing off its blanket denials or portraying the criticism as a politicized smear campaign.
"The assessment is a patchwork of false information that serves as political tools for the U.S. and other Western countries to strategically use Xinjiang to contain China," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said. "It again shows that the U.N. Human Rights Office has been reduced to an enforcer and accomplice of the U.S. and other Western countries."In a sign of China's fury, it issued a 122-page rebuttal, entitled "Fight against Terrorism and Extremism in Xinjiang: Truth and Facts," that was posted by the U.N. along with the report.
The U.N. findings were drawn in part from interviews with more than two dozen former detainees and others familiar with conditions at eight detention centers. They described being beaten with batons, interrogated while water was poured on their faces and forced to sit motionless on smalls stools for long periods. Some said they were prevented from praying — and were made to take shifts through the night to ensure their fellow detainees were not praying or breaking other rules. Women told of being forced to perform oral sex on guards or undergo gynecological exams in front of large groups of people. The report said that descriptions of the detentions were marked by patterns of torture and other cruel and inhumane treatment and that allegations of rape and other sexual violence appeared credible. "The extent of arbitrary and discriminatory detention of members of Uyghur and other predominantly Muslim groups ... in (the) context of restrictions and deprivation more generally of fundamental rights ... may constitute international crimes, in particular crimes against humanity," the report said.
It made no mention of genocide, which some countries, including the United States, have accused China of committing in Xinjiang.The rights office said it could not confirm estimates that a million or more people were detained in the internment camps in Xinjiang, but added it was "reasonable to conclude that a pattern of large-scale arbitrary detention occurred" at least between 2017 and 2019. Beijing has closed many of the camps, which it called vocational training and education centers, but hundreds of thousands of people continue to languish in prison, many on vague, secret charges.
The report called on China to release all individuals arbitrarily detained and to clarify the whereabouts of those who have disappeared and whose families are seeking information about them.
Japan, which has recently become more vocal in its criticism of China's conduct in Xinjiang, was one of the first foreign governments to comment on the report.
"Japan is highly concerned about human rights conditions in Xinjiang, and we believe that it is important that universal values such as freedom, basic human rights and rule of law are also guaranteed in China," Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said.
A German Foreign Ministry statement also welcomed the publication of the report, saying it confirms there is cause for the "greatest concern." It called for the immediate release of all those arbitrarily detained and said that Germany was working with the EU to combat the use of forced labor — as has been alleged in the production of goods from Xinjiang that eventually are sold around the world.
Human Rights Watch said the report laid a solid foundation for further U.N. action to establish accountability for the abuses.
"Never has it been so important for the U.N. system to stand up to Beijing, and to stand with victims," said John Fisher, the deputy director of global advocacy for the group.
Rahima Mahmut, U.K. director of the World Uyghur Congress, said she was relieved the report is finally out -- but had no hope it would change the Chinese government's behavior and called on the international community to send a signal to Beijing that "business cannot be as usual."That the report was released was in some ways as important as its contents. U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet said she had to resist pressure both to publish and not publish. She had announced in June that the report would be released by end of her four-year term on Aug. 31, triggering a swell in back-channel campaigns — including letters from civil society, civilians and governments on both sides of the issue. The report was published just minutes before her tenure officially ended. Critics had said a failure to publish the report would have been a glaring black mark on her tenure.
"The inexcusable delay in releasing this report casts a stain" on the record of the U.N. human rights office, said Agnès Callamard, the secretary-general of Amnesty International, "but this should not deflect from its significance."

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 01-02/2022
A Deal Based on Lies: The Iran Nuclear Agreement Will Make War More Likely
Richard Kemp/Gatestone Institute./September 01/2022
These are the effects of the proposed nuclear deal brokered by the EU, Russia and China. Why is it brokered by the EU, Russia and China? Because the United States was outrageously banned from direct negotiations by Tehran. It is not outrageous that Iran demanded it, but that the US tolerated its own exclusion.
[T]he deal that is about to emerge will be even worse [than the 2015 deal]. The argument of the "bad" dealers is that it buys time for the West, with Micawberish optimism that "something will turn up". This thinking is clear from President Biden's preposterous hope that he can "lengthen and strengthen" the deal once it has been struck.
While in office, Obama declared that Iran would not be allowed to build nuclear weapons on his watch. He must have known that the only way to prevent that was through military action or perhaps crippling sanctions, but was unwilling to do either and the result was the JCPOA, which kicked the problem down the road onto someone else's watch.
Tehran can legitimately commence operation of advanced uranium enrichment centrifuges in two years, all the while working flat out to develop nuclear-capable ballistic missiles that, along with Iran's terrorist activities, are not covered at all in the agreement.
The "buying time" argument, and indeed an argument for any agreement, only works if you do not understand Iran and are naive enough to believe the regime will honor what it agrees to.
The reality that the optimistic and the unschooled fail to grasp is that the regime in Tehran will ignore constraints imposed by the deal that it does not like.
Tehran will continue to develop the nuclear capability that it sees as its right — deal or no deal — at the speed it wants until it is physically stopped from doing so. Whatever shape Biden's deal takes there are only downsides for the West and the Middle East and only upsides for Tehran.
More than that, according to Israeli prime minister Yair Lapid, Tehran will receive $100 billion a year as a result of lifted sanctions.
Released from sanctions, Iran will be used as an economic refuge by Moscow to evade its own international sanctions.
Under the draft deal, Iran will be able to retain the uranium that it has been illicitly producing since the original JCPOA, enriched beyond any requirements for a peaceful nuclear programme.... [I]t seems likely that Russia — despite its own repeated nuclear threats — will be handed control of this existing uranium stockpile.
This chilling scenario — for which the world will pay a very high price — is about to be made more likely by the ill-judged actions of governments in America and Europe, which lack the resolve and courage to apply sufficient economic pressure and military deterrence to put a stop to Iranian nuclear ambitions. Instead, as they did in response to Russian aggression, they are again opting for appeasement, the opium of the faint-hearted.
Under the proposed renewed nuclear deal, Iran can legitimately commence operation of advanced uranium enrichment centrifuges in two years, all the while working flat out to develop nuclear-capable ballistic missiles that, along with its terrorist activities, are not covered at all in the agreement. Pictured: Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi speaks during a press conference in Tehran on August 29, 2022.
As Western governments quake in the face of Russian nuclear threats, they are on the verge of striking a deal that will give Iran that same power over them.
Even after six months of war in Europe, they cannot seem to grasp the parallels between the two. Putin risked invading Ukraine because of Western weakness and appeasement, naively welcoming Russia back into the family of nations after it devoured large parts of Ukraine in 2014, while at the same time filling its war chests with ever more billions of euros from energy exports to Europe.
Iran has been waging war non-stop on the West and its allies in the Middle East since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Appeasing Tehran by endorsing its nuclear programme and handing it billions of dollars from sanctions relief will likewise empower and encourage the ayatollahs to greater aggression even than hitherto. These are the effects of the proposed nuclear deal brokered by the EU, Russia and China. Why is it brokered by the EU, Russia and China? Because the United States was outrageously banned from direct negotiations by Tehran. It is not outrageous that Iran demanded it, but that the US tolerated its own exclusion.
The feeble mantra of the apologists for President Joe Biden's JCPOA 2.0, a desperate attempt to revive President Barack Obama's failed agreement from 2015 that paved the way to an Iranian nuclear bomb, is "a bad deal is better than no deal". Well, no it is not, and the deal that is about to emerge will be even worse. The argument of the "bad" dealers is that it buys time for the West, with Micawberish optimism that "something will turn up". This thinking is clear from Biden's preposterous hope that he can "lengthen and strengthen" the deal once it has been struck. But optimism is not a strategy and it certainly is not a strategy for dealing with a violent and volatile revolutionary regime dedicated to the destruction of the Jewish state, which it sees as the proxy of its ultimate enemy, America.
While in office, Obama declared that Iran would not be allowed to build nuclear weapons on his watch. He must have known that the only way to prevent that was through military action or perhaps crippling sanctions, but was unwilling to do either and the result was the JCPOA, which kicked the problem down the road onto someone else's watch.
Unfortunately the road was short — and is now shorter still. The sunset clauses in Obama's JCPOA are not going to be extended in this new deal, and that means Tehran can legitimately commence operation of advanced uranium enrichment centrifuges in two years, all the while working flat out to develop nuclear-capable ballistic missiles that, along with Iran's terrorist activities, are not covered at all in the agreement. At best Biden's new deal just boots the can down the road to his own successor.
The "buying time" argument, and indeed an argument for any agreement, only works if you do not understand Iran and are naive enough to believe the regime will honour what it agrees to. You only need to look across the border at the equivalent jihadist entity next door in Afghanistan, which Biden assured us was somehow reformed and had undertaken not to allow Al Qaida to rebuild its base there, only to find a year later its leader living and plotting in Kabul under the protection of the Taliban leadership.
The reality that the optimistic and the unschooled fail to grasp is that the regime in Tehran will ignore constraints imposed by the deal that it does not like. That is what it did with the original JCPOA and its other international undertakings including the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty that it has frequently breached, confirmed again earlier this year by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
As Mossad chief David Barnea said a few days ago, the deal is "based on lies".
Tehran will continue to develop the nuclear capability that it sees as its right — deal or no deal — at the speed it wants until it is physically stopped from doing so. Whatever shape Biden's deal takes there are only downsides for the West and the Middle East and only upsides for Tehran. Signing the deal will give Iran renewed legitimacy (while getting Biden and his European friends off the hook of having to confront reality). More than that, according to Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid, Tehran will receive $100 billion a year as a result of lifted sanctions.
Those dollars will enable Iran to speed up its nuclear programme, including development of ballistic missiles capable of launching nuclear warheads not just across the Middle East but also to Europe and the US. Those dollars will boost Iran's regional aggression, threatening Saudi Arabia and the UAE from Yemen, threatening Israel from Lebanon, Syria and Gaza, and threatening the US, Europe and the world with its global network of terrorist proxies and followers. This violent malignity, which will shift into overdrive with a massive cash injection, was most recently exhibited by Tehran's proxies in Gaza launching thousands of missiles at Israel in August, by rocket attacks in Syria that wounded US servicemen just a few days ago, by the attempt to murder Salman Rushdie in the US and by recently-revealed Iranian assassination plots against former members of the Trump administration. All that while dictating terms at the negotiating table.
Missing no opportunity to exploit Western spinelessness, there is also a significant upside for Tehran's ally Russia, which has been in bed with America, Europe and Iran over the negotiations while at the same time inflicting untold violence in Ukraine. Released from sanctions, Iran will be used as an economic refuge by Moscow to evade its own international sanctions. It will be no comfort to Western citizens to know that their governments are taking action that will ease Russian pain while they themselves endure enormous economic suffering as a result of the very restrictions Putin will bypass.
Under the draft deal, Iran will be able to retain the uranium that it has been illicitly producing since the original JCPOA, enriched beyond any requirements for a peaceful nuclear programme. In a twist that many will find shocking, it seems likely that Russia — despite its own repeated nuclear threats — will be handed control of this existing uranium stockpile. Taken together with the benefits that will accrue to China also, which last year concluded a long-term economic agreement with Iran, this deal clearly runs counter to American and European national security interests as well as Israel's. This is not a strategic misjudgement that might only be discovered downstream; it is blatantly obvious today.
As the deal legitimises the Islamic Republic, it will delegitimise the vital efforts of those who have no choice but to deal with it or risk annihilation. Sometimes with US and British assistance, Israel has been conducting a long-term covert campaign to contain and delay Iran's nuclear project. This campaign, which must continue, will be seen in a different light by Western governments once the deal is in place — a deal that they will be every bit as desperate to be seen publicly to succeed as they have been to bring it about.
Twice before, Israel has saved the world from nuclear catastrophe in the Middle East, by bombing an Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981 and a Syrian reactor in 2007. Both raids were condemned by world leaders at the time, who only later came to comprehend the enormity of what they had been delivered from. Imagine the reactions of Western governments to such action against Iran when a deal is in place. Destroying the Iranian nuclear infrastructure, while at the same time defending against the inferno Tehran will seek to unleash using its Hizballah proxies in Lebanon, will be a challenge infinitely greater than that faced by Israel in Iraq or Syria.
This chilling scenario — for which the world will pay a very high price — is about to be made more likely by the ill-judged actions of governments in America and Europe, which lack the resolve and courage to apply sufficient economic pressure and military deterrence to put a stop to Iranian nuclear ambitions. Instead, as they did in response to Russian aggression, they are again opting for appeasement, the opium of the faint-hearted.
*Colonel Richard Kemp is a former British Army Commander. He was also head of the international terrorism team in the U.K. Cabinet Office and is now a writer and speaker on international and military affairs. He is a Jack Roth Charitable Foundation Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Hamas in Turkey: Money Laundering, Turkish Passports, Government Collusion and Terror Bank Accounts
Uzay Bulut/Gatestone Institute./September 01/2022
Beside Erdoğan's regular antisemitic outbursts, other alarming issues -- such as Hamas' secret investment portfolio in Turkey and Turkey's granting passports to Hamas terrorists -- need to be addressed by Turkish government authorities.
See the US Treasury's list of specially designated nationals whose businesses operate in Turkey and elsewhere.
"It seems that Hamas has chosen to manage its secret investment portfolio in Turkey because of the weak financial system in Turkey, which enables Hamas to hide its money laundering activity and tax violations from the regulatory bodies. Trend Gyo, controlled by Hamas, has five subsidiaries in Turkey. Senior officials in the investment portfolio hold dual, high-ranking positions in all five companies." — Double Cheque, February 2, 2018.
As Turkey-Israel relations appear to be entering a so-called "new phase", the government of Turkey needs to publicly explain the following: When Hamas began operating in Turkey, what its political, financial, military, and diplomatic activities have been there, how many Hamas terrorists have lived in Turkey, and why Turkey has enabled them. Why did Turkey give them Turkish citizenship? And if they really deported a few of them, what has changed? Does Turkey see Hamas as a terrorist organization now? How many Hamas terrorists remain in Turkey as of today? And why?
[A] senior Turkish official and other sources told Middle East Eye that Turkey had not expelled any Hamas members and was not planning to expel the Muslim Brotherhood presence in the country, either. As Hamas is the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, it is probably not a reach to assume that Turkey has no plans to ask Hamas to leave any time soon.
Until the Turkish government officials honestly and transparently answer these questions and take concrete steps to end Hamas' presence in Turkey, its "rapprochement" with Israel should be understood only as an unauthentic attempt to benefit Erdoğan's regime and harm Israel.
Beside Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's regular antisemitic outbursts, other alarming issues -- such as Hamas' secret investment portfolio in Turkey and Turkey's granting passports to Hamas terrorists -- need to be addressed by Turkish government authorities. Pictured: Erdoğan (right) honors Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh at the Parliament in Ankara, Turkey on January 3, 2012.
"Tayyip [Erdoğan] is a Jew who pretends to be a Muslim," wrote Yüksel Üstün, on his Facebook account in 2020. In November 2021, a criminal court sentenced Üstün with a fine of 7,000 Turkish liras ($385) for "insulting the president." In the complaint, filed by Hüseyin Aydın, an attorney for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the expression "Jew" (when applied to Erdoğan) was deemed "humiliating, damaging to honor and dignity."
The Chief Public Prosecutor's Office of the city in which Üstün resides filed the lawsuit against Üstün after the Ministry of Justice gave permission to prosecute him. The indictment argued that the suspect committed the alleged crime in his post by "offending the honor, dignity and respectability of the president". The court initially sentenced the defendant to 10 months and 20 days in prison. The judge later commuted the sentence to a judicial fine. The defendant nearly went to prison for calling Erdoğan "a Jew."
Ironically, the government of Erdoğan, who believes that being called Jewish is an "insult", now claims to be in the process of "normalizing" its relations with Israel.
Beside Erdoğan's regular antisemitic outbursts, other alarming issues -- such as Hamas' secret investment portfolio in Turkey and Turkey's granting passports to Hamas terrorists -- need to be addressed by Turkish government authorities.
On May 24, according to the US Treasury Department, the United States imposed sanctions on a Hamas finance official as well as a network of financial facilitators and companies that generated revenue for the terror group.
The sanctions target Hamas's Investment Office, which holds assets estimated to be worth more than $500 million. This includes companies operating in Turkey, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Algeria and the United Arab Emirates, again according to a statement issued by the US Treasury Department.
"Today's action targets the individuals and companies that Hamas uses to conceal and launder funds," said Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes Elizabeth Rosenberg while in Israel to discuss countering terror financing.
"Hamas has generated vast sums of revenue through its secret investment portfolio while destabilizing Gaza, which is facing harsh living and economic conditions. Hamas maintains a violent agenda that harms both Israelis and Palestinians. The United States is committed to denying Hamas the ability to generate and move funds and to holding Hamas accountable for its role in promoting and carrying out violence in the region."
In mid-2017, Usama Ali was appointed as the head of the Hamas Investment Office, a position from which he coordinated financial transfers for the terrorist group. The US Treasury statement noted:
"Hisham Younis Yahia Qafisheh (Qafisheh) is a Turkey-based Jordanian national who served as Usama Ali's deputy and played an important role in transferring funds on behalf of various companies linked to Hamas's investment portfolio. Qafisheh was involved in managing the operations or held key roles in several companies controlled by Hamas including serving as a member of the Board of Directors at Sudan-based Agrogate Holding and the Deputy Chairman of the Board at Turkey-based Trend GYO, and Chairman of the Board at Sudan-based Al Rowad Real Estate Development. Qafisheh also managed Anda Company, a real estate and construction business, which was based in Saudi Arabia.
"As of 2018, Hamas elements held about 75 percent of the issued capital at Turkey-based company Trend GYO. Additionally, Hamas planned to privately issue more than $15 million of Trend GYO's shares to senior officials in the investment portfolio."
See the US Treasury's list of specially designated nationals whose businesses operate in Turkey and elsewhere.
The database of the website Double Cheque, which helps companies refrain from business activity that facilitates terrorism, lists the subsidiaries of Trend GYO, a real estate investment trust ("gayrimenkul yatırım ortaklığı" in Turkish) located in Turkey, as follows:
IYS Yapi Co, a contracting company, and a subsidiary of Trend Gyo. Its CEO is Hamas operative Walid Jadallah. The chairman of the board of directors is Hamas operative Hisham Qafisheh.
Expert Yapi Co, another contracting company in Turkey and Trend subsidiary. Its CEO is Hamas operative Amer al-Shava.
Uzmanlar Co, a construction company and subsidiary of Anda Gayrimenkul Co. The company was established in 2001. The CEO is Hamas operative Ahmad Jahleb. The partners in the company and members of the board of directors are Hamas operatives Ahmad Odeh, Ahmad al-Maghrebi, Amar al-Shava, Ahmad Jahleb, and Ayman al-Duwaik, and Hamas facilitator Muhammad Bin Mahfouz. This company established two subsidiaries in 2014, one that imports and exports air conditioners and elevators, and the other in the tourism sector. The company operates in Jordan, Dubai, and Saudi Arabia as well.
Advancity Co., is a construction contracting company and subsidiary of Anda Gayrimenkul Co. It was founded in 2014. The company's CEO and chairman of the board is Hamas operative Amar al-Shava.
AG Yapi Co., a construction contracting company and subsidiary of Anda Gayrimenkul Co. It was founded in 2007. The company shareholders and board members include: Hisham Qafisheh (20%), Muhammad Bin Mahfouz (15%), Saleh Mangoush (20%), and Amar al-Shava (1%).
According to Double Cheque:
"It seems that Hamas has chosen to manage its secret investment portfolio in Turkey because of the weak financial system in Turkey, which enables Hamas to hide its money laundering activity and tax violations from the regulatory bodies. Trend Gyo, controlled by Hamas, has five subsidiaries in Turkey. Senior officials in the investment portfolio hold dual, high-ranking positions in all five companies.
"Trend Gyo has been traded on the Istanbul stock exchange since 2018. Raising funds via a public company that is traded on the Istanbul stock exchange is unprecedented in the extent of the risk posed by the terror organization to all investors, banks, accountants, and lawyers involved.
"In addition to the banking, business, and regulatory sectors, unwitting customers who buy apartments are unaware that they are purchasing real estate from a terror organization that is incapable of providing financial backing in case of a collapse. The correspondent banks linked to the banks that manage the investment portfolio accounts are also subject to fines and audits."
These companies are not the only way that the Turkish government has enabled Hamas. In 2020, The Telegraph reported that Turkey was in the process of granting citizenship to high-ranking Hamas members living in the country, who are suspected of involvement in directing terror attacks. Of the 12 senior members of the cell, most were already given citizenship, according to the British daily.
One of those who has apparently received citizenship is Zacharia Najib. He reportedly oversaw a plot to assassinate senior Israeli public figures, including the national police commissioner and Nir Barkat, who at that time was mayor of Jerusalem and is today a Member of Knesset. The Times of Israel reported that an East Jerusalem Palestinian-Arab, who was recruited to the cause during a meeting in Istanbul, was arrested after he returned to Israel and tried to buy a pistol.
Roey Gilad, chargé d'affaires at Israel's embassy in Turkey, confirmed the reports. "Some are in the process, some already got (the documents), but we are talking about around a dozen". Gilad said Israel has evidence of the arrangements.
Meanwhile, Erdoğan met several times with delegations of Hamas leadership, including its leader Ismail Haniyeh and deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri, both of whom have a $5 million bounty on their heads after being designated as terrorists by the US.
Erdoğan also received Haniyeh alongside the accompanying delegation at Istanbul's Vahdettin Palace.
The Erdoğan regime's close relationship with Hamas might be explained by the ideological agreement between the two entities. In 2017, Erdoğan targeted the Jewish people by referring to a hadith (traditional accounts of Islam's prophet Muhammad's deeds and sayings) about Judgement Day. "Those who think they are the owners of Jerusalem today will not even be able to find trees to hide behind tomorrow," he declared, ironically during a "Human Rights Day" event in Ankara on December 10, 2017. Erdoğan's comment came in response to the U.S. administration's recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital. According to the hadith, for the "the coming of the hour," the Jews must suffer a violent death to the last one.
The Hamas Charter also refers to the same hadith:
"The Day of Judgement will not come about until Moslems fight the Jews (killing the Jews), when the Jew will hide behind stones and trees. The stones and trees will say O Moslems, O Abdulla, there is a Jew behind me, come and kill him. Only the Gharkad tree, would not do that because it is one of the trees of the Jews." (related by al-Bukhari and Moslem)."
Meanwhile, a Palestinian official told the Israel daily Israel Hayom this past April that "Some of the people with ties to Hamas' military wing have been deported" from Turkey. A month later, however, a senior Turkish official and other sources told Middle East Eye that Turkey had not expelled any Hamas members and was not planning to expel the Muslim Brotherhood presence in the country, either. As Hamas is the Palestinian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, it is probably not a reach to assume that Turkey has no plans to ask Hamas to leave any time soon.
Hamas continues to operate an office -- or more -- in Turkey. The Israeli chargé d'affaires in Turkey, Irit Lillian, said on August 26 that Israel "expects Turkey to close the Hamas office and send the activists there away from here."
As Turkey-Israel relations appear to be entering a so-called "new phase", the government of Turkey needs to publicly explain the following: When Hamas began operating in Turkey, what its political, financial, military, and diplomatic activities have been there, how many Hamas terrorists have lived in Turkey, and why Turkey has enabled them. Why did Turkey give them Turkish citizenship? And if they really deported a few of them, what has changed? Does Turkey see Hamas as a terrorist organization now? How many Hamas terrorists remain in Turkey as of today? And why?
Until the Turkish government officials honestly and transparently answer these questions and take concrete steps to end Hamas's presence in Turkey, its "rapprochement" with Israel should be understood only as an unauthentic attempt to benefit Erdogan's regime and harm Israel.
*Uzay Bulut, a Turkish journalist, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Gatestone Institute.

A Deal Based on Lies: The Iran Nuclear Agreement Will Make War More Likely
Richard Kemp/Gatestone Institute./September 01/2022
These are the effects of the proposed nuclear deal brokered by the EU, Russia and China. Why is it brokered by the EU, Russia and China? Because the United States was outrageously banned from direct negotiations by Tehran. It is not outrageous that Iran demanded it, but that the US tolerated its own exclusion.
[T]he deal that is about to emerge will be even worse [than the 2015 deal]. The argument of the "bad" dealers is that it buys time for the West, with Micawberish optimism that "something will turn up". This thinking is clear from President Biden's preposterous hope that he can "lengthen and strengthen" the deal once it has been struck.
While in office, Obama declared that Iran would not be allowed to build nuclear weapons on his watch. He must have known that the only way to prevent that was through military action or perhaps crippling sanctions, but was unwilling to do either and the result was the JCPOA, which kicked the problem down the road onto someone else's watch.
Tehran can legitimately commence operation of advanced uranium enrichment centrifuges in two years, all the while working flat out to develop nuclear-capable ballistic missiles that, along with Iran's terrorist activities, are not covered at all in the agreement.
The "buying time" argument, and indeed an argument for any agreement, only works if you do not understand Iran and are naive enough to believe the regime will honor what it agrees to.
The reality that the optimistic and the unschooled fail to grasp is that the regime in Tehran will ignore constraints imposed by the deal that it does not like.
Tehran will continue to develop the nuclear capability that it sees as its right — deal or no deal — at the speed it wants until it is physically stopped from doing so. Whatever shape Biden's deal takes there are only downsides for the West and the Middle East and only upsides for Tehran.
More than that, according to Israeli prime minister Yair Lapid, Tehran will receive $100 billion a year as a result of lifted sanctions.
Released from sanctions, Iran will be used as an economic refuge by Moscow to evade its own international sanctions.
Under the draft deal, Iran will be able to retain the uranium that it has been illicitly producing since the original JCPOA, enriched beyond any requirements for a peaceful nuclear programme.... [I]t seems likely that Russia — despite its own repeated nuclear threats — will be handed control of this existing uranium stockpile.
This chilling scenario — for which the world will pay a very high price — is about to be made more likely by the ill-judged actions of governments in America and Europe, which lack the resolve and courage to apply sufficient economic pressure and military deterrence to put a stop to Iranian nuclear ambitions. Instead, as they did in response to Russian aggression, they are again opting for appeasement, the opium of the faint-hearted.
Under the proposed renewed nuclear deal, Iran can legitimately commence operation of advanced uranium enrichment centrifuges in two years, all the while working flat out to develop nuclear-capable ballistic missiles that, along with its terrorist activities, are not covered at all in the agreement. Pictured: Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi speaks during a press conference in Tehran on August 29, 2022.
As Western governments quake in the face of Russian nuclear threats, they are on the verge of striking a deal that will give Iran that same power over them.
Even after six months of war in Europe, they cannot seem to grasp the parallels between the two. Putin risked invading Ukraine because of Western weakness and appeasement, naively welcoming Russia back into the family of nations after it devoured large parts of Ukraine in 2014, while at the same time filling its war chests with ever more billions of euros from energy exports to Europe.
Iran has been waging war non-stop on the West and its allies in the Middle East since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Appeasing Tehran by endorsing its nuclear programme and handing it billions of dollars from sanctions relief will likewise empower and encourage the ayatollahs to greater aggression even than hitherto. These are the effects of the proposed nuclear deal brokered by the EU, Russia and China. Why is it brokered by the EU, Russia and China? Because the United States was outrageously banned from direct negotiations by Tehran. It is not outrageous that Iran demanded it, but that the US tolerated its own exclusion.
The feeble mantra of the apologists for President Joe Biden's JCPOA 2.0, a desperate attempt to revive President Barack Obama's failed agreement from 2015 that paved the way to an Iranian nuclear bomb, is "a bad deal is better than no deal". Well, no it is not, and the deal that is about to emerge will be even worse. The argument of the "bad" dealers is that it buys time for the West, with Micawberish optimism that "something will turn up". This thinking is clear from Biden's preposterous hope that he can "lengthen and strengthen" the deal once it has been struck. But optimism is not a strategy and it certainly is not a strategy for dealing with a violent and volatile revolutionary regime dedicated to the destruction of the Jewish state, which it sees as the proxy of its ultimate enemy, America.
While in office, Obama declared that Iran would not be allowed to build nuclear weapons on his watch. He must have known that the only way to prevent that was through military action or perhaps crippling sanctions, but was unwilling to do either and the result was the JCPOA, which kicked the problem down the road onto someone else's watch.
Unfortunately the road was short — and is now shorter still. The sunset clauses in Obama's JCPOA are not going to be extended in this new deal, and that means Tehran can legitimately commence operation of advanced uranium enrichment centrifuges in two years, all the while working flat out to develop nuclear-capable ballistic missiles that, along with Iran's terrorist activities, are not covered at all in the agreement. At best Biden's new deal just boots the can down the road to his own successor.
The "buying time" argument, and indeed an argument for any agreement, only works if you do not understand Iran and are naive enough to believe the regime will honour what it agrees to. You only need to look across the border at the equivalent jihadist entity next door in Afghanistan, which Biden assured us was somehow reformed and had undertaken not to allow Al Qaida to rebuild its base there, only to find a year later its leader living and plotting in Kabul under the protection of the Taliban leadership.
The reality that the optimistic and the unschooled fail to grasp is that the regime in Tehran will ignore constraints imposed by the deal that it does not like. That is what it did with the original JCPOA and its other international undertakings including the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty that it has frequently breached, confirmed again earlier this year by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
As Mossad chief David Barnea said a few days ago, the deal is "based on lies".
Tehran will continue to develop the nuclear capability that it sees as its right — deal or no deal — at the speed it wants until it is physically stopped from doing so. Whatever shape Biden's deal takes there are only downsides for the West and the Middle East and only upsides for Tehran. Signing the deal will give Iran renewed legitimacy (while getting Biden and his European friends off the hook of having to confront reality). More than that, according to Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid, Tehran will receive $100 billion a year as a result of lifted sanctions.
Those dollars will enable Iran to speed up its nuclear programme, including development of ballistic missiles capable of launching nuclear warheads not just across the Middle East but also to Europe and the US. Those dollars will boost Iran's regional aggression, threatening Saudi Arabia and the UAE from Yemen, threatening Israel from Lebanon, Syria and Gaza, and threatening the US, Europe and the world with its global network of terrorist proxies and followers. This violent malignity, which will shift into overdrive with a massive cash injection, was most recently exhibited by Tehran's proxies in Gaza launching thousands of missiles at Israel in August, by rocket attacks in Syria that wounded US servicemen just a few days ago, by the attempt to murder Salman Rushdie in the US and by recently-revealed Iranian assassination plots against former members of the Trump administration. All that while dictating terms at the negotiating table.
Missing no opportunity to exploit Western spinelessness, there is also a significant upside for Tehran's ally Russia, which has been in bed with America, Europe and Iran over the negotiations while at the same time inflicting untold violence in Ukraine. Released from sanctions, Iran will be used as an economic refuge by Moscow to evade its own international sanctions. It will be no comfort to Western citizens to know that their governments are taking action that will ease Russian pain while they themselves endure enormous economic suffering as a result of the very restrictions Putin will bypass.
Under the draft deal, Iran will be able to retain the uranium that it has been illicitly producing since the original JCPOA, enriched beyond any requirements for a peaceful nuclear programme. In a twist that many will find shocking, it seems likely that Russia — despite its own repeated nuclear threats — will be handed control of this existing uranium stockpile. Taken together with the benefits that will accrue to China also, which last year concluded a long-term economic agreement with Iran, this deal clearly runs counter to American and European national security interests as well as Israel's. This is not a strategic misjudgement that might only be discovered downstream; it is blatantly obvious today.
As the deal legitimises the Islamic Republic, it will delegitimise the vital efforts of those who have no choice but to deal with it or risk annihilation. Sometimes with US and British assistance, Israel has been conducting a long-term covert campaign to contain and delay Iran's nuclear project. This campaign, which must continue, will be seen in a different light by Western governments once the deal is in place — a deal that they will be every bit as desperate to be seen publicly to succeed as they have been to bring it about.
Twice before, Israel has saved the world from nuclear catastrophe in the Middle East, by bombing an Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981 and a Syrian reactor in 2007. Both raids were condemned by world leaders at the time, who only later came to comprehend the enormity of what they had been delivered from. Imagine the reactions of Western governments to such action against Iran when a deal is in place. Destroying the Iranian nuclear infrastructure, while at the same time defending against the inferno Tehran will seek to unleash using its Hizballah proxies in Lebanon, will be a challenge infinitely greater than that faced by Israel in Iraq or Syria.
This chilling scenario — for which the world will pay a very high price — is about to be made more likely by the ill-judged actions of governments in America and Europe, which lack the resolve and courage to apply sufficient economic pressure and military deterrence to put a stop to Iranian nuclear ambitions. Instead, as they did in response to Russian aggression, they are again opting for appeasement, the opium of the faint-hearted.
*Colonel Richard Kemp is a former British Army Commander. He was also head of the international terrorism team in the U.K. Cabinet Office and is now a writer and speaker on international and military affairs. He is a Jack Roth Charitable Foundation Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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Pelosi’s promise...Showing up in Taiwan is not enough
Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/September 01/2022
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi cares deeply about the people of Taiwan as she has throughout her long career. That’s my story and I’m going to try my darnedest to stick to it as I write this column.
Her visit to the self-governing island earlier this month displayed her commitment to this beleaguered democracy. At a press event following her meeting with President Tsai Ing-wen, she said her goal was to make Taiwan’s security relationship with the U.S. “stronger and up-to-date.” She emphasized: “And we don’t want anything to happen to Taiwan by force.”
She also pledged to boost America’s economic relationship with Taiwan, in particular a “trade agreement that might be possible and soon.”
So, what has she done to fulfill these promises since her return to Washington? Not much, far as I can tell.
That’s a problem because – apologies to Woody Allen – 80 percent of success is not just showing up.
Nancy Pelosi is a lioness in winter. Her days as a political powerhouse probably end after the November elections. There are steps she can take to strengthen Taiwan and more effectively deter China’s rulers. But she needs to act quickly and boldly.
She might start with the Taiwan Policy Act of 2022, introduced by Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez. Its purpose, as Mr. Menendez wrote, is to “develop and put in place a new and more resilient strategy for Taiwan while there is still time.”
The bipartisan bill would help the Taiwanese with defense training and planning, as well as provide $4.5 billion in security assistance – funds Taiwan would use to purchase U.S. weapons systems already approved for sale under both the Trump and Biden administrations.
The better trained and armed the Taiwanese are, the less likely that Xi Jinping will wage war on them. A more colorful – if by now clichéd – way to say this: Taiwan needs to become a porcupine – tough for a predator to swallow.
Speaker Pelosi should be pressing the House Foreign Affairs Committee to advance a companion version of the Taiwan Policy Act, as well as making plans for the full House to consider such legislation before the end of the fiscal year.
Moving on to the U.S.-Taiwan economic relationship: Where’s her legislation establishing a free trade agreement that would reduce Taiwan’s economic reliance on Beijing, currently its top trading partner?
She’d find many allies for that across the aisle. Getting President Biden on board will be more challenging but she’s no slacker when it comes to arm-twisting.
And does she support renewal of trade promotion authority to give the White House a way to fast-track trade deals in Congress?
Other useful activities would include speaking out forcefully against Beijing’s influence operations on American campuses, taking on the Chinese Communist Party’s apologists in Hollywood and on Wall Street, warning state and local governments against getting too cozy with Beijing, and doing something about the UN’s refusal to penalize Beijing in any meaningful way for its genocide of Uighur Muslims and other minorities, not to mention its colonization of Tibet. Leave aside for the moment a serious inquiry into how a viral pandemic spread from the city where the Wuhan Institute of Virology is located.
It also would be helpful if – at this time of rising isolationism on both the left and the right – she would explain clearly to the public how important Taiwan is to American prosperity and why, if the Free World is to endure, America cannot not be indifferent when totalitarians threaten to snuff out democratic societies.
She could remind Americans that the Taiwanese have never been ruled by Communists and don’t want to be. We know that for certain from public polling and because the Taiwanese vote in free and fair elections.
Mr. Xi’s argument for the Taiwanese accepting the mainland as their motherland might have been more compelling had he abided by his government’s treaty obligation to respect the civil and human rights that Hong Kong enjoyed under British rule. Instead, he reneged on the “One Country, Two Systems” promise – and when the people of Hong Kong protested, he responded brutally.
One more item, the most significant: President Biden has said three times that he would use force to defend Taiwan. At present, however, the U.S. military is not adequately resourced for that mission.
Ms. Pelosi must know that. It would be a Nixon-to-China moment (so to speak) were she to call for sharply increasing military spending but that’s what is necessary for “deterrence by denial” – convincing Mr. Xi that a military invasion of Taiwan would likely fail.
She ought to acknowledge, too, that America’s defense-industrial base is in urgent need of shoring up. We don’t have the means to rapidly produce military hardware and munitions to replace what we’re sending to the Ukrainians who are now defending themselves from a neo-imperialist tyrant – in large measure because we did not make Ukraine a porcupine when we should have.
As much as a trillion dollars for this purpose could be available if Mr. Biden would change his mind about forcing taxpayers to pick up the tab for loans taken out by a select group of college graduates. Speaker Pelosi has said he doesn’t have the legal authority to spend the public’s money this way. Now would be a good time for her to press the point.
Mr. Biden will be displeased but so what? He objected to her going to Taiwan this summer and she went anyway.
She did that as a matter of principle, not as virtue signaling, or to give herself a grand swan song. That’s my story and I’ve now stuck to it for an entire column.
*Clifford D. May is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a columnist for the Washington Times. Follow him on Twitter @CliffordDMay. FDD is a nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Putin Will Turn Gorbachev’s Death to His Advantage
Clara Ferreira Marques/Bloomberg/September 01/2022
Mikhail Gorbachev was a man who hoped for the best, and got the worst.
The legacy of the last Soviet leader, who died yesterday aged 91, was largely undone by two decades of Vladimir Putin. Now a grinding war in Ukraine is its grim and bloody requiem.
Gorbachev had an aversion to violence, a desire to work within the system, a curiosity about the West born of state-sponsored trips abroad, and lofty ideals. All of these, together with ill-conceived economic reforms, eventually led to his downfall. When Gorbachev left office in 1991, he called on Russians to preserve the democratic freedoms he had introduced. But the chaos he left in his wake allowed a kleptocracy to take root instead — one that will now weaponize his death.
A complex and flawed man, Gorbachev has long been something of a political Rorschach test. For many, especially outside Russia, he is the reformist the West found it could “do business with,” in British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s phrase, the statesman who ended the Cold War. Few had expected this turn of events when he came to power in 1985, at a youthful 54 — he was a party man who turned out to be more like a Western politician than any of the grey figures that preceded him.
For many in former Soviet-ruled states, he was the leader who allowed history on a dramatic scale to happen peacefully. He tore down The Wall.
And yet for hardliners and those tied to the security services, as President Vladimir Putin was and remains, Gorbachev was the man responsible for losing an empire. He brought national humiliation to a great nation and caused what the Kremlin’s current occupant once described as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” The disintegration of “historical Russia” leaving millions of ethnic Russians in newly independent states. “What had been built up over 1,000 years was largely lost,” Putin said in a documentary aired last year.
Few episodes are as significant in understanding Putin’s political vision — and his current war of conquest in Ukraine — as that unravelling, and his experience of that collapse as a young KGB agent in Dresden. Others may have seen the prospect of freedom during the perestroika years — Putin saw powerlessness. ”I got the feeling then that the country no longer existed,” he later wrote. “That it had disappeared.”
All of this leaves the Kremlin in something of a bind when it comes to Gorbachev’s death. He’s a reminder of that humiliation and the crumbling that led to the economically desperate, undignified 1990s. Even worse, his name has faint remnants of a moment when there were hopes for freedom, openness and reform. Though few were listening by the end, the former Soviet leader was inconveniently loud in his criticism of the Kremlin’s tightening grip, which he argued came with growing costs. He pointed out in 2017 that Russia could not fix stagnation without a change of government. His reformist perestroika policies, he wrote last year in a reflective essay, was a humanist project that leaned on individual initiative and broke with autocracy. “This is what makes perestroika relevant today; any other choice can only lead our country down a dead-end road.”
For Putin today, all of this can — and no doubt will — be easily swept aside in official remembrance and tributes, because Gorbachev, while hardly universally popular, was the last prominent link to the Soviet Union, a statesman of rare status. And in the complex way that Russian politics works, he arguably shared Putin’s vision of Ukraine in Russia’s orbit, though he did not advocate war. His criticisms will be overlooked, the specifics will be glossed over.
Like the Soviet leaders who came before him, Putin understands very well that political deaths and funerals are not about the dead at all. They’re about the pageantry, and a unique opportunity to retell history and project strength. Gorbachev, after all, came to prominence for much of the outside world at the funeral of his predecessor, Konstantin Chernenko, giving a eulogy that said more about his priorities — shaking Russia from economic stagnation — not those of the deceased.
In Moscow — as, indeed, in Beijing, where the Communist Party has long sought to learn the lessons from perestroika errors — this will not be an opportunity to reflect on the fact that the Soviet system’s secrecy and rigidity were, ultimately, its downfall. It won’t be an opportunity to reflect on what might have been, had democracy taken root, or Gorbachev moved more slowly.
There will be a moment to use his failures in the Kremlin’s eyes — say, his decision to largely avoid force in Soviet-run states, the weakness that allowed even Russia to break away — to justify empire-building actions today. These mistakes, Putin will say, cannot be repeated. But many more Gorbachev-era facts with awkward contemporary echoes will be avoided — like opposition to the war in Afghanistan, the social cost of excessive military spending, or the economic shortages — in favor of a focus on sepia-tinted Soviet nostalgia. Putin, who promotes a vaguely Soviet-inspired national mythology, needs a distraction from the counter-offensive by Kyiv that his forces are now battling.
The West has less of an excuse to gloss over Gorbachev’s shortcomings. He was a man of vision who changed the world, but there should be room among the political eulogies to reassess lessons all too relevant today to countries like Ukraine. Democracy requires state structures to support it and economic underpinnings. And it’s rarely wise to place too much weight on the role of individuals who often cannot control what they unleash.

Iran nuclear deal: Iran will sign, but it won't go quietly - analysis'
Yonah Jeremy Bob/Jerusalem Post/September 01/2022
For Iran, it is lots of screaming and kicking at the 11th hour to see if it can secure a few more concessions before it signs the dotted line.
It is important to pay attention to the nuclear policy announcements and threats coming out of Iran these days, but also to take them with a grain of salt.
All signs are that Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has finally reached the decision to return to the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal and that the many recent hardline statements from Iranian officials are part of the Islamic Republic’s favorite negotiation strategy.
In essence, it is lots of screaming and kicking at the 11th hour to see if it can secure a few more concessions before it signs the dotted line.
In the worst-case scenario, where it gains little, Khamenei can at least present himself as having gone into the deal grudgingly and without naivete.
Also, Khamenei probably expects that most of his people will not follow many of the details and nuclear limits that he may agree to; they will, however, remember that he and his nuclear lieutenants sounded very tough and uncompromising in public.
Khamenei was a doubter of the 2015 deal up until the last moment when he allowed it to go forward.
In the days and weeks counting down to the signing of the deal, Khamenei unveiled harsher and louder nuclear threats, including spinning up an astounding 180,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium, far greater than the 20,000 they had at the time.
When he allowed then-Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif to ink the nuclear deal, it really did seem like Tehran was being dragged to the bargaining table.
Why does Iran want to stall the deal so much?
Iran’s main concerns still seem to be getting the IAEA to close its probes of illicit nuclear material, equipment and documents at three nuclear sites. Iran likely wants to ensure that it fully benefits from sanctions relief, as opposed to post-2015, when it believed that the West indirectly undermined efforts by Western businesses to invest in the Islamic Republic.
Tehran’s public statements do not clarify whether it is close to a deal or has changed much of its positions since mid-2021.
In fact, the only way that observers know that Khamenei is close to a deal is that Iranians have played this game before, and keeping that in mind as they painstakingly follow its public statements and official negation positions. Anyone following would notice that, recently, he has allowed his officials to drop positions he had long stuck to.
What changed in Iran's echelon?
One Iranian official recently said there would be no “reimplementation day” unless the IAEA probes are closed. But reimplementation day is off into the distant future, and the old Iranian position was not signing anything until the probes are closed.
That position has been abandoned and all of the tough-sounding statements appear to be cover for that embarrassing retreat.
Likewise, on the issue of getting guarantees for sanctions relief, Khamenei fought for several months to get the IRGC delisted from the US terror list. Eventually, however, Iranian officials said that was not crucial for them and now they have completely stopped talking about it.
All of this was after trying and failing to get the Biden administration to give Iran a guarantee for remaining in the deal beyond his presidency.
Most of the guarantees being discussed now are much more limited, such as getting back billions of dollars frozen in South Korea and commitments by the US to allow Western private companies to maintain new contracts with Iran for some period of time, even if the US might later pull out again.
These are poor guarantees since the South Korean money would only go to Iran once it has reduced uranium enrichment from 60% to 20% – a trade-off offered by France many times in recent years, which Iran had repeatedly rejected.
Even the “guarantee” for companies could be easily repealed by a new US administration if the circumstances lined up in a certain way.
None of this means the West will actually get real answers from Khamenei about past military nuclear dimensions.
Mossad director David Barnea correctly noted last week that if the West signs a deal with a regime – regarding which it was 100% proven in 2018 from its own secret nuclear archives that it had lied to them about past nuclear dimensions – the West has already signaled that, at some point, they will put the issue on the back burner. However, this does mean that, although now Iran insists that there are things it will not budge on, it may very well concede on those things in the near future.

On the fate of the missing
Farouk Youssef/The Arab Weekly/September 01/2022
There are many meanings covered by the word ‘absence’. I say ‘absence’ although death is what eventually brings together all absentees. There is no worse fate than that created by a political system that puts its citizens on the edge of the unknown.
The idea is to transfer the citizen from a place to a non-place. Whoever is detained quickly finds himself missing. One could cease to exist. One could disappear, as if one never existed. A citizen morphs into thin air. He loses his name to a number. After a while, whoever kidnapped him will be certain that no one will listen to him. It does not matter if he talks or does not talk. His confessions will only matter if they incriminate him. One is required to justify his deportation from his former position to complete oblivion. After his arrest, he will be absent from work and home. He will be absent from the street, the coffee-shop and the market place. He will leave behind his wife, parents, brothers, friends, his own talent, his passions along with his homeland.
His family would not believe in his absence. Prisoners of war return, but the missing do not. Suddenly he finds himself missing in a war he did not fight. A war that did not happen and may not end because it never started. A one-sided war in which he was the victim. He found himself facing enemies he did not choose but who chose him as their enemy instead. The enemy functions based on suspicions of sedition and conspiracy, all from the book of the regime.
What is happening in our countries does not happen anywhere else in this day and age. Everywhere else, thinking is no longer a crime. The books one chooses to read are no longer held against you. Differences of opinion are no more a sin. We have been mired in our backwardness since forever. Reason is still a crime in a large part of ​​the Arab world. If you do not want to be part of the herd, you have to expect to disappear or go missing.
Once you are arrested, the “why?” question will haunt you in vain. It is an absurd question that no one will answer for you. You just have to believe that you have moved from the visible world to a world of ghosts, in which the senses are disrupted and even prophecies will not be able to predict your fate. No one you meet in that nowhere-land will give you the benefit of his experience.
In fact, you will not really be living. What you will be going through is a kind of nightmare in which the facts are garbled. Torment and hazy fables will resemble the nights of Scheherazade with dawn’s reprieve.
In supposedly-democratic Iraq and Syria, in authoritarian Syria in particular, there are many missing. Suspicions and accusations move people from the state of presence to the state of absence. From the visible world to the invisible. Narratives become irrelevant. An absent relative is a detainee to his kidnappers. In relation to his previous life he is a missing person. But in both cases no one will know anything about him. At the moment of his abduction, pain will overwhelm his life.
The missing do not pose a problem for the political systems in place, which is not embarrassed by the scourge. Despite deploring the practice, the world will not end its support to the (presumably democratic) regime in Iraq , while authoritarian regimes will not be perceived as any worse.
The problem of the missing is an individual problem, even if it involves tens of thousands of people. No one asks about the missing as long as the international community is preoccupied with its own humanity and the interests of major powers. That is an egregious mistake for which those who are kidnapped pay for in a second.