English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 31/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
God is faithful, and he will not let you be tested beyond your strength, but with the testing he will also provide the way out so that you may be able to endure it
First Letter to the Corinthians 10/01-13/:”I do not want you to be unaware, brothers and sisters, that our ancestors were all under the cloud, and all passed through the sea, and all were baptized into Moses in the cloud and in the sea, and all ate the same spiritual food, and all drank the same spiritual drink. For they drank from the spiritual rock that followed them, and the rock was Christ. Nevertheless, God was not pleased with most of them, and they were struck down in the wilderness. Now these things occurred as examples for us, so that we might not desire evil as they did. Do not become idolaters as some of them did; as it is written, ‘The people sat down to eat and drink, and they rose up to play.’ We must not indulge in sexual immorality as some of them did, and twenty-three thousand fell in a single day. We must not put Christ to the test, as some of them did, and were destroyed by serpents. And do not complain as some of them did, and were destroyed by the destroyer. These things happened to them to serve as an example, and they were written down to instruct us, on whom the ends of the ages have come. So if you think you are standing, watch out that you do not fall. No testing has overtaken you that is not common to everyone. God is faithful, and he will not let you be tested beyond your strength, but with the testing he will also provide the way out so that you may be able to endure it.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 30-31.2022
President Aoun in a letter to Parliament: PM-designate imprisons cabinet formation, so let your Council take the initiative to remove assignment,...
Lebanon President Approves Gov't Resignation, Leaves with No Replacement
Aoun leaves Baabda amid popular rallies, tight security
Lebanon’s outgoing president leaves behind power vacuum, slams judiciary, political opponents
Power vacuum begins as Aoun vacates presidential palace
Aoun signs govt. resignation decree, lashes out at judiciary and Salameh
Aoun, Bassil pay overnight visit to supporters at Baabda Palace
Bassil says FPM has unrevealed yet 'logical' presidential candidate
Berri receives both letters from President of the Republic, Prime Minister
Mikati: Government will continue to carry out its constitutional duties, including conducting of business, unless Parliament Council has a different...
Nasrallah: Resistance & threat of war were decisive factors in achieving demarcation agreement
Al-Rahi wishes Aoun well, says Lebanon knew worst crisis during his term
Lebanon: Rai Accuses Officials of Creating Post-Aoun Political 'Vacuum'

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 30-31.2022
Pope Francis prays for stampede victims in Seoul
Will Israel's ultra-Orthodox ditch Netanyahu after vote?
Palestinian attacker shot dead after killing Israeli in West Bank
UN: 2022 likely deadliest for Palestinians in West Bank
Germany: EU Examines Classifying IRGC as Terrorist
EU examines classifying Iran Revolutionary Guards as terrorists: Germany
Iran Says it Will Not Allow ‘Enemies’ to Undermine its Security
Trudeau joins Canadian demonstrators in support of Iran protests
Blinken accuses Russia of again weaponizing food with halt of grain deal with Ukraine
EU urges Russia to resume role in Ukraine grain export deal
Ukraine grain exports halted after Russia suspends deal participation
More than 150 killed in Halloween stampede in Seoul
Algeria summit will be milestone on road to revitalizing joint Arab action: Aboul Gheit

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 30-31.2022
The Clash of Global Visions Between Strategy and Noise/Raghida Dergham/The National/October 30, 2022
Has the Left Lost its Right Hand?/Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/October, 30/2022
Iran Is The Event!/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/October 30/2022
Congress Must Increase its Support for Ukraine, Not Cut and Run/Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/October 30/2022
How NATO has been revitalized by Ukraine crisis/Yasar Yakis/ Gatestone Institute/October 30, 2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 30-31.2022
President Aoun in a letter to Parliament: PM-designate imprisons cabinet formation, so let your Council take the initiative to remove assignment,...
NNA/Sunday, 30 October, 2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, called on the Parliament to “take the initiative to remove the assignment from the current government, so that it would immediately be possible to commission someone else and issue formation decrees right away to avoid vacuum.”
In a letter addressed to the Parliament Council through House Speaker Nabih Berri, President Aoun highlighted "the Prime Minister-designate's refusal to form a government pursuant to the provisions of Articles 53 (paragraph 4) and 64 (clause 2) of the Constitution, affirming the conducting of business in the narrow sense of the cabinet that he currently presides over and which was considered to have resigned pursuant to Article 69 (paragraph 1, clause 5), while Lebanon is on the verge of presidential vacuum amidst imminent entitlements at all national levels that cannot endure any void in view of their dangerous repercussions on the people, the entity and the Charter."
The President continued to underline that Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati "is not enthusiastic about the cabinet formation for various reasons, including that the priority is to elect a president, and if that happens, why should we take the initiative to form a government," and his saying that "there is no interest in forming a new government and bearing full responsibility while there is no full responsibility for him and the government in a caretaker state of affairs."
Aoun added that his meetings with Mikati revolved around a cycle of mobile obstacles that emptied them of every useful and practical progress in terms of a new cabinet formation, thus revealing the PM-designate's unwillingness to form a new government to appear before parliament to gain confidence and put an end to conducting of business in the narrow sense. "Our certainty has been strengthened that he is unwilling to form a government, but rather to continue at the head of a caretaker government and to bet on time until reaching presidential vacuum," Aoun maintained.
He added: "What is more dangerous is that the head of the caretaker government, who is commissioned but abstains from cabinet formation, wishes to hold sessions of the Council of Ministers in the absence of the Parliament Council's monitoring, thus breaching the concept of conducting business in the narrow sense and the principle of separation, balance and cooperation of powers, which is one of the pillars of our parliamentary democratic constitutional system (Paragraphs C and E of the preamble to the Constitution)."
Subsequently, President Aoun stressed that "the constitutional chaos that threatens the entity and the charter is rejected by us as long as we are in the presidency and have sworn an oath of loyalty to the constitution and laws of the Lebanese nation." He added: "We address you with this letter to inform you of the reality of the situation and warn of how matters may deviate to a course that is not in the interest of the country, pursuant to the responsibility of the House of Representatives and its competence in assigning and then granting confidence to the government and holding it accountable," calling for discussing this immediate message in the General Assembly, in view of the imperatives of safeguarding Lebanon from the dangers that threaten the state, its people, its charter, constitution and entity. Aoun hoped in his letter that through the Parliament Council, the Lebanese national partnership and the necessities of coexistence will be achieved, urging the Parliament to take the necessary position, procedure, or decision required in this respect.

Lebanon President Approves Gov't Resignation, Leaves with No Replacement
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 30 October, 2022
Lebanese President Michel Aoun left Lebanon's presidential palace Sunday marking the end of his six-year term without a replacement, leaving the small nation in a political vacuum that is likely to worsen its historic economic meltdown.
As Aoun’s term ends, the country is being run by a caretaker government after Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati failed to form a new Cabinet following May 15 parliamentary elections. In a speech outside the palace, Aoun told thousands of supporters that he has accepted the resignation of Mikati's government. Lebanese are deeply divided over Aoun, with some seeing him as a defender of the country’s Christian community and a leading figure who tried to seriously fight corruption in Lebanon. However, he is criticized by his opponents for supporting "Hezbollah" and helping the group gain power. “I leave a country that is robbed,” Aoun said, adding that all Lebanese were hurt by losing their life savings in local banks. He added that some politicians prevented the investigation into the port blast. Aoun, who blamed his political rivals and others for the crisis except for members of his political party, later left the palace and headed to his residence in Beirut's northern suburb of Rabieh. Aoun's biggest achievement came last week. He signed a US-mediated maritime border agreement with Israel that Beirut hopes will lead to gas exploration in the Mediterranean, The Associated Press reported. Parliament has held four sessions since late September to elect a president but no candidate was able to get the two-thirds majority of the vote needed. As in previous votes, parliamentary blocs will have to agree on a consensus candidate for the country’s top post as no alliance within the legislature controls majority seats. Aoun himself was elected in 2016 after a more than two-year vacuum. Despite Hezbollah’s support then, Aoun was only elected after he received the backing of the bloc of his main rivals of the Christian Lebanese Forces Party as well as the bloc of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri.

Aoun leaves Baabda amid popular rallies, tight security
Naharnet/October 30/2022
President Michel Aoun left the presidential palace in Baabda at noon Sunday amid popular rallies by his supporters and tight security measures in Baabda and across several regions. The president’s six-year term ends at midnight Monday/Tuesday. FPM supporters had erected tents on the roads around the palace on Saturday. Aoun left his office shortly after 12pm and bid farewell to the palace’s employees. A presidential guard platoon later performed a salutation as well as the army’s anthem and the national anthem. The president then delivered a speech at the Baabda popular rally before leaving to his residence in Rabieh, amid acclaim from supporters. Aoun's departure from Baabda comes a day before his mandate expires without a designated successor, which threatens a new power vacuum in the crisis-torn country.

Lebanon’s outgoing president leaves behind power vacuum, slams judiciary, political opponents
Najia Houssari/Arab News/October 30/2022
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s outgoing head of state Michel Aoun on Sunday launched a blistering attack on his political opponents and the country’s judiciary as he bowed out of the presidential palace. In a speech, the departing president said he was leaving behind, “a robbed country, a worn-out state, and institutions that no longer have any value.” Exiting one day before his mandate expired without a designated successor — deepening the country’s political crisis — he blasted the judiciary for failing to do its job and accused judges of taking bribes.
He also blamed opponents for preventing him from bringing to justice Lebanon’s Central Bank Gov. Riad Salameh — who is being investigated in several European countries, including Switzerland, France, Luxembourg, and Liechtenstein for alleged money laundering and embezzlement — who he described as “the perpetrator of all financial crimes.”
And he claimed influential people had blocked attempts to investigate the deadly Beirut port explosion saying the head of the Supreme Judicial Council had not wanted to appoint anyone to look into the disaster.
In addition, Aoun announced that he had signed a final decree formalizing the resignation of Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s caretaker government, exacerbating a months-long power struggle that has paralyzed the government.
In a letter to parliament, he called on it not to entrust the caretaker government with the powers of the president, since it had failed to elect a new president within the constitutional deadline. “This government lacks popular legitimacy and thus, constitutional legitimacy,” Aoun said.
He also demanded that parliament swiftly select another prime minister-designate to form a government before the presidential term officially ended at midnight on Monday.
He was surrounded by thousands of supporters of the Free Patriotic Movement who had gathered since Saturday night to accompany him to his home in Rabieh after a crises-filled, six-year term. In his letter, Aoun, blamed by opposition parties for contributing to dragging the country into unprecedented political and economic crises, accused Mikati of intentionally failing to form a government in order to establish a presidential vacuum. He said: “He seeks to carry on with a government operating in caretaker mode, amid a power vacuum, so he can take over the presidency.”Mikati responded in a statement, saying that the government would continue to carry out all of its constitutional duties, in caretaker mode, in accordance with the provisions of the constitution and regulations, unless parliament advised otherwise. He added that a decree accepting the resignation of a government that had already resigned in accordance with the provisions of the constitution, lacked any constitutional value. Mikati pointed out that the “resigned government” had previously been represented before parliament and participated in discussing draft laws, and parliament approved most of them — most notably the general budget law for 2022.
The media office of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri confirmed he had received the letters from Aoun and Mikati.
In his speech, Aoun said he believed that the state was “based on security and the judiciary, but judgments are based on revenge, not justice, and revenge is a crime.”
He predicted that the next stage would “be more tiring, as we cannot rest before we pull the country out of the abyss they threw it in.” He noted that he would follow up on forming a sovereign fund for future oil wealth. “The people’s money is protected by the people.” FPM leader Gebran Bassil said the next stage would mark the beginning of a “confrontation with the corrupt regime and the usurpers of the constitution and power.”
In his Sunday sermon, Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi warned against disrupting the harmony between the authorities and generating constitutional chaos.
He urged parliament to elect a new president, calling the presidential vacuum a conspiracy against Lebanon and adding that time for dialogue had run out.
Al-Rahi said: “Agreeing over a single candidate is impossible, a new president needs to be elected through successive voting sessions, accompanied by consultations and by permanently maintaining a quorum.”He slammed the “influential political officials in our country who hold the keys to finding solutions, who have left the Lebanese people groaning under the burden of poverty, deprivation, injustice, and displacement, and proceeded to demolish the state’s institutions one by one, even the presidency, leading the country into a presidential vacuum, either deliberately, or stupidly, or selfishly.” Escorting him to his home on Sunday, Aoun’s supporters raised olive branches, FPM banners, and Lebanese flags in addition to pictures of Aoun in his military uniform when he was army chief in the 1980s. Aoun left his office by shaking hands with senior officials and advisers. He then saluted the Lebanese flag as the army played the national anthem, before addressing his supporters.

Power vacuum begins as Aoun vacates presidential palace
Agence France Presse/October 30/2022
President Michel Aoun vacated the presidential palace on Sunday, amid acclaim from his supporters, a day before his mandate expires without a designated successor, which threatens a new power vacuum in the crisis-torn country. A few thousand well-wishers gathered to pay tribute to Aoun, a former army chief and the founder of the Free Patriotic Movement. FPM supporters, some brandishing portraits of the outgoing head of state widely referred to as "General", flocked to the presidential palace in the hills above the capital Beirut, where some had spent the night in tents, to accompany him to his private home. "We have come to escort the president at the end of his mandate, to tell him that we are with him and that we will continue the struggle by his side," said teacher Joumana Nahed. Lebanese lawmakers have tried but failed four times in a month to agree on electing a successor after Aoun's six-year term ends Monday, stoking fears of a deepening political crisis. The term of Aoun, who is in his late 80s, was marred by mass popular protests, a severe economic crisis and currency collapse, and the August 2020 portside blast of ammonium nitrate that killed hundreds and laid waste to swathes of the capital. Neither the Hezbollah camp, the powerful armed movement which dominates political life in Lebanon, nor its opponents have the clear majority to impose a candidate to succeed him. Lebanon is being run by a caretaker government as political divisions have prevented the formation of a new cabinet ever since legislative elections in the spring. At the beginning of his farewell speech on Sunday, Aoun announced that he has signed a decree accepting the caretaker cabinet's "resignation," a move described by many constitutional experts, observers and political parties as nonexistent in the constitution. This comes at a time Lebanon has yet to enact most of the reforms required for it to access billions of dollars in loans from the International Monetary Fund. Some at the palace Sunday recalled previous turbulence in the country that was torn by the bloody 1975-1990 civil war and decades of military intervention by neighbor Syria. Nabil Rahbani, 59, said he had camped outside the presidential palace once before, "between 1989 and 1990, before the Syrian air force dislodged the general from Baabda Palace."

Aoun signs govt. resignation decree, lashes out at judiciary and Salameh
Naharnet/October 30/2022
President Michel Aoun announced Sunday in a farewell speech in Baabda that he has signed a decree “accepting the resignation” of the caretaker cabinet, as he lashed out at the judiciary and Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh. ”The judiciary is not performing its role and the culprits are still outside courts, perhaps because they are cronies of those in charge,” Aoun said, addressing a crowd of supporters in Baabda. “They paralyzed the probe into the port blast because the Higher Judicial Council chief does not want the appointments that would lead us to the truth,” the president lamented. “The country needs reform and to get rid of the influential officials who paralyzed the judiciary and halted investigations into the port blast,” Aoun added. Noting that the state “can only be built upon two pillars -- security and the judiciary,” the president decried that “the establishment that has been ruling since 32 years is protecting the central bank governor.” “The central bank governor carried out financial crimes and a judicial and criminal investigation was carried out but it did not reach the court,” Aoun said. “The country is looted and we have to carry out a lot of efforts to uproot corruption,” Aoun urged. Addressing supporters, he said: “Today a phase ends and another begins that requires struggle and a lot of work so that we can exit our crises.”A few minutes later, the president left the Baabda Palace for his residence in Rabieh. His term will end at midnight Monday/Tuesday.

Aoun, Bassil pay overnight visit to supporters at Baabda Palace
Naharnet/October 30/2022
President Michel Aoun inspected overnight supporters camping and rallying at the Baabda Palace to take part in the celebrations that will accompany the president’s departure from the palace on the occasion of the end of his term.
Aoun was accompanied by Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil. The president made his way difficultly through the cheering and clapping crowd. “I will meet with you tomorrow. It won’t be a farewell but rather a major gathering through which we continue the struggle to rescue Lebanon from the problems it is suffering,” Aoun told supporters. Some FPM supporters had erected tents on the presidential palace's road to spend the night.

Mikati says Aoun’s govt. resignation decree 'lacks any constitutional value'
Naharnet/October 30/2022
Caretaker PM and PM-designate Najib Mikati swiftly hit back Sunday at President Michel Aoun, saying that the decree that he issued to accept the caretaker cabinet’s resignation “lacks any constitutional value.”“The government will continue to perform all its constitutional duties, including acting in caretaker capacity in line with the texts of the constitution and the laws that govern its work,” said Mikati in a letter to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. The caretaker government is “already resigned, as per the constitution’s stipulations,” Mikati noted. He added that acting in caretaker capacity is a “constitutional duty,” leaving it to parliament to voice “any conflicting opinion” in this regard. Aoun, who announced the decree in his farewell speech earlier in the day, has argued that the caretaker cabinet cannot assume the president's powers in the event of a presidential vacuum.

Bassil says FPM has unrevealed yet 'logical' presidential candidate
Naharnet/October 30/2022
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil sterssed Sunday that the FPM will not endorse the presidential nomination of Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh. “Void will exchaust those who are void and they are betting on it. Vacuum will cost the country but it will not deter us from our stance,” Bassil told reporters in Rabieh after the departure of President Michel Aoun from the Baabda Palace. Asked about his own nomination for the country’s top post, Bassil said: “Can you forget about me? If you forget me you will be relieved.”“We have our logical candidate but we have nominated him in order to facilitate consensus,” Bassil added, noting that “all parties are not being able to agree on a candidate who can reach the presidency.”

Berri receives both letters from President of the Republic, Prime Minister
NNA/October 30/2022
Speaker of the House, Nabih Berri, received Sunday a letter from Prime Minister Najib Mikati, after the latter was informed of the cabinet resignation decree signed by the President of the Republic. The Prime Minister's letter stated that the government will continue to conduct business and carry out all its constitutional duties, in accordance with the constitutional texts and regulations that govern its work. House Speaker Berri later received a letter from President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, addressed to the Parliament through its Speaker, calling for a Parliament session to take the appropriate measure in this regard.

Mikati: Government will continue to carry out its constitutional duties, including conducting of business, unless Parliament Council has a different...
NNA/October 30/2022
Prime Minister Najib Mikati announced that "the government will continue to carry out all its constitutional duties, including conducting business in accordance with the provisions of the Lebanese Constitution and the regulations that sponsor its work and decision-making as stipulated in the Constitution, and in Decree No. 2552 dated August 1, 1992 and its amendments (organizing the work of the Council of Ministers), unless the Parliament Council has a different opinion.""The decree accepting the resignation of the government, which has already resigned in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution, lacks any constitutional value," Mikati affirmed.
The Prime Minister’s position came in a letter addressed to House Speaker Nabih Berri, following President Michel Aoun's signing of a decree deeming the current government as "resigned". Mikati indicated in his letter to Berri that, "It is useful to recall that our government, in compliance with its constitutional duties, has previously responded to your explicit invitation to participate and attend the sessions of your honorable council and was represented before this council, as a resigned government, and took part in the discussion of several bills sent by it, most of which were approved by the council, particularly the draft general budget law for 2022 which is of great importance because it defines the general fiscal policy of the government and the funds that allow it to implement these policies."
In light of the above, PM Mikati stated: "In order to avoid constitutional accountability for violating the duties stipulated in Article /70/ of the Constitution, and to avoid the disruption of the functioning of public facilities, the fall of the regime, and the paralysis of the work of the state with all its components and constitutional institutions...and based on the fact that the decree, which accepted the resignation of an already-resigned government, is legally lacking any constitutional value that would negatively impact the conducting of business in addition to exercising all obligations imposed on it by the Constitution, kindly take note of the government's continued conducting of business and carrying out all its constitutional duties in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution and the regulations that sponsor its work and manner of taking decisions stipulated in the Constitution and in Decree No. 2552 dated August 1, 1992 and its amendments (organizing the work of the Council of Ministers), unless your esteemed council has a contrary opinion."

Nasrallah: Resistance & threat of war were decisive factors in achieving demarcation agreement
NNA/October 30/2022
Hezbollah Secretary-General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, said, "Lebanon, in the battle to demarcate the southern maritime borders, which began with the arrival of the Greek ship and ended with the delivery of documents in Naqoura, got everything it wanted, except for one matter that remained pending."
Speaking during a televised speech yesterday evening, Nasrallah deemed the file of demarcation of the southern maritime border with occupied Palestine, resulting from the indirect maritime negotiations, as "an important outcome and a historic and great victory," explaining that "a small square remained stuck with an area of ​​2.5 km, which Lebanon insists on considering as an occupied area that must be liberated." He stressed that "the resistance and the threat of war were decisive factors in the completion of the maritime border demarcation agreement," adding, "We almost reached war before reaching an agreement."
Nasrallah pointed out that Lebanon did not provide any security guarantees, outlining the accomplishments Lebanon was able to achieve through the maritime border demarcation agreement as follows:
-First, Lebanon rejected the Israeli line 1, and rejected the Hof line, and it bore all the risks and pressures of time by insisting on line 23
-Second, Lebanon insisted on obtaining the entire blocks, with no exchange or modification whatsoever, i.e. all blocks 8, 9 and 10 drawn up by the Lebanese state have been obtained in full
-Third, Lebanon acquired the entire Qana field, without any commitment from the Lebanese side, or compensation or anything, which was achieved from a position of strength and an obligation on part of the enemy not to carry out any activity towards the Qana field located south of line 23
-Fourth, Lebanon achieved the lifting of the ban on companies that have committed to working in the blocks, as the Israeli enemy cannot threaten or open fire at them nor prevent them from operating according to the agreement; in addition to the lifting of the American and Western ban in the context of the siege imposed on Lebanon, far-reaching the encouragement of companies to explore and extract gas
-Fifth, Lebanon's share of the exclusive economic zone in the area with Cyprus will expand after this demarcation.
Finally, Hezbollah Secretary-General affirmed that "the Israeli enemy recognized the balance of deterrence with the resistance as a result of what happened in the maritime border demarcation file," stressing that "there is no suspicion of normalization or recognition of the Israeli enemy following the maritime border demarcation agreement."

Al-Rahi wishes Aoun well, says Lebanon knew worst crisis during his term
Naharnet/October 30/2022
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Sunday bid farewell to President Michel Aoun in Sunday Mass sermon, wishing him luck and success after the end of his six-year term. “We wish him well after a long life in the various military and national positions. His tenure was not easy but rather rife with threats and difficult circumstances, seeing as Lebanon was in the middle of the region’s axes and it knew the worst existential crisis in its modern history,” al-Rahi said. “They have gradually destroyed the state, all the way to its presidencies, plunging this higher and essential presidency into vacuum, deliberately or out of stupidity or out of selfishness,” the patriarch added. “This presidency is the cornerstone for recognizing Lebanon’s unity and the state’s entity, seeing as the president is not a president among presidents but rather above every presidency,” al-Rahi went on to say. Rejecting a return to the rule of “troika,” the patriarch warned that it undermines separation of powers and creates constitutional chaos. “Presidential vacuum in Lebanon is not a destiny but rather a conspiracy,” al-Rahi cautioned.

Lebanon: Rai Accuses Officials of Creating Post-Aoun Political 'Vacuum'
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 30 October, 2022
Maronite Patriach Beshara al-Rai accused the Lebanese authorities of creating a political vacuum by leaving the presidency unfilled with outgoing president Michel Aoun's term ending on Monday. Al-Rai said in his Sunday sermon that officials had "left this supreme and essential presidency in a vacuum, either deliberately, or out of stupidity or selfishness."He described the presidency as a “cornerstone” for the unity of the state. The “presidential vacuum in Lebanon is not a fate but rather a conspiracy,” al-Rai cautioned. Aoun left the presidential palace in Baabda on Sunday, a day ahead of the official end of his six-year term but without a successor. Aoun leaves the fragile country in an unprecedented situation where the presidency is vacant at the same time as the cabinet operates in a caretaker capacity.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 30-31.2022
Pope Francis prays for stampede victims in Seoul
NNA/October 30/2022
Pope Francis today offered his prayers for the victims of a stampede that left more than 150 people dead at a Halloween party in the South Korean capital, Seoul, AFP reported.
At the end of the Angelus prayer in St Peter's Square, the Pope asked the faithful to pray "for the many people, especially the young, who died last night in Seoul, the tragic result of the sudden accumulating crowds."

Will Israel's ultra-Orthodox ditch Netanyahu after vote?
Agence France Presse/October 30/2022
Former premier Benjamin Netanyahu's record run as Israel's leader would not have been possible without the unwavering support of ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties. But are they getting ready to part ways? Party leaders say no, insisting they will not join any prospective anti-Netanyahu coalition after Tuesday's election, as it would not protect their deeply religious values. The two parties representing the ultra-Orthodox community in parliament were booted out of government in June 2021 when a motley coalition of Netanyahu's rivals ousted him and took power. But being in opposition is precarious for the ultra-Orthodox, known as haredim, who rely on government support to sustain their lifestyles, including subsidies that fund many adult men who opt for religious studies instead of working. Analysts said haredim have suffered out of government, and that if Netanyahu again fails to secure a parliamentary majority after next week's polls -- Israel's fifth in four years -- they may seek new allies. At the top of the list is Defense Minister Benny Gantz, a Netanyahu rival taking another shot at becoming prime minister. "After four failures, there is a possibility that (the ultra-Orthodox) parties will abandon Netanyahu if he does not manage to form a coalition", Gilad Malach, a specialist in ultra-Orthodox society at the Israel Democracy Institute think-tank, told AFP. Such a development would almost certainly prove fatal to Netanyahu's political career, as it appears impossible for him to form a government without Shas, which represents Sephardic Jews with roots in southern Europe and North Africa, and United Torah Judaism (UTJ), the party of Ashkenazi Jews of Eastern European descent.
Non-starters
Shas and UTJ, who reliably turn out their voters, have banked a combined 16 out of 120 parliament seats through Israel's era of political gridlock since 2019. Malach noted that haredi support for Netanyahu's right-wing bloc is not historic.
Ultra-Orthodox Jews have on several occasions in Israel's 74-year history sat in a government led by center-left Labor, once the dominant national party. Labor is now diminished and considered an impossible ally for Shas and UTJ, with its leader Merav Michaeli pushing for public transportation on Shabbat, the Jewish day of rest when haredim want Israel to be fully closed. Caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid, a committed secularist whose late father Yosef "Tommy" Lapid was a fierce critic of haredi society, is also considered a non-starter for the two ultra-Orthodox parties. But Gantz, now leader of the center-right National Unity alliance, insists he could win their backing. His campaign included several outreaches to haredim, and he recently claimed he was "the only one capable of forming a coalition" and the ultra-Orthodox "will join".
Gantz? 'Never' -
UTJ lawmaker Yitzhak Pindrus told AFP "there is no scenario in which we are part of a coalition with Gantz.""What matters to us is respect for tradition," he said. "We will go with Netanyahu because he is the one who ensures the survival of the Jewish state."Yossi Taieb of Shas said his party "will never participate in a government led by Gantz, who is a left-winger no matter what he says.""But if Gantz accepts the terms set by the right-wing bloc, he could join our coalition."Gantz told AFP the dynamics were in fact more nuanced. Asked Thursday on his flight back from Turkey if haredi parties would support him as prime minister, he said: "They say they won't but they also don't want to stay in the opposition." "So I assume, depending on the results of the elections, they'll reconsider their options. I also know it."
'Substantial' offers
Haredi politicians have long wish lists that include religious education grants and army service exemptions for their young men. Pindrus insisted "financial offers from the left will not be enough for us to support Gantz or anyone else."Shmuel, a haredi voter from Jerusalem who asked that his name be withheld fearing backlash within his community, said the ultra-Orthodox "cannot remain outside the sphere of influence and miss out on budgets for our schools and institutions." "If Gantz offers a substantial budget for us and Netanyahu fails to form a coalition, the two haredi parties will join Gantz," he told AFP. "They will go with whoever offers the most."

Palestinian attacker shot dead after killing Israeli in West Bank
Agence France Presse/October 30/2022
A Palestinian assailant shot dead an Israeli in the flashpoint West Bank city of Hebron on Saturday and wounded four others, including another Palestinian, before being killed by a security guard. The shooting comes just days before Israel holds its fifth election in less than four years and with violence surging in the West Bank, a Palestinian territory occupied by Israel since 1967. Extreme-right Israeli lawmaker Itamar Ben-Gvir, whose Religious Zionism alliance is eyeing major gains in elections on Tuesday, claimed on Twitter that his Hebron home was the target. Israel's security forces have not confirmed the allegation and Israeli media, citing security sources, have reported Ben-Gvir's home in a Hebron settlement was not targeted. Israel's Magen David Adom (MDA) emergency response service initially reported five wounded, including a 50-year-old Israeli man left "unconscious with an injury to his upper body".
A spokesperson for Jerusalem's Hadassah Medical Center told AFP that man later died of his wounds. The other Israelis suffered less severe injuries, the MDA said, while the Palestinian Red Crescent reported that the Palestinian victim was being treated at a Hebron area hospital. Israel's army said "a terrorist shot live fire" near a checkpoint in Hebron, a West Bank city which is also home to a community of hardline Jewish settlers. An army spokesperson told AFP that an Israeli security guard shot the attacker dead at the scene. "Soldiers are conducting searches in the area" for additional suspects, the army said.
'Downward spiral'
The United Nations envoy for Middle East peace, Tor Wennesland, warned on Friday that the West Bank was "caught in a downward spiral" of bloodshed. This year is on track to be the deadliest in the territory in more than a decade. More than 100 Palestinians, including fighters and attackers but also civilians, have been killed across the West Bank as Israel has conducted near daily raids targeting alleged militants. The raids were launched following a spate of deadly attacks targeting Israelis that began in March. Israeli operations have primarily been concentrated in the northern West Bank, while Hebron in the south has seen less unrest. However, Hebron has been rocked by waves of violence through the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as it hosts a disputed holy site, known to Muslims as the Ibrahimi mosque and to Jews as the Cave of the Patriarchs, which is revered by both faiths. Prime Minister Yair Lapid tweeted on Saturday that he was "praying" for those wounded in Kiryat Arba, the Hebron community home to a group of predominately right-wing, religious settlers. "Terrorism will not defeat us," said Lapid, who is currently serving as caretaker premier but is hoping to secure an independent mandate in Tuesday's vote. Former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who typically polls well among West Bank settlers, is eyeing a return to power after 18 months in opposition. About 475,000 Jewish settlers currently live in the West Bank in communities considered illegal by most of the international community, alongside some 2.9 million Palestinians.

UN: 2022 likely deadliest for Palestinians in West Bank
Associated Press/October 30/2022
The U.N. Mideast envoy said 2022 is on course to be the deadliest year for Palestinians in the West Bank since the U.N. started tracking fatalities in 2005, and he called for immediate action to calm "an explosive situation" and move toward renewing Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.
Tor Wennesland told the U.N. Security Council that "mounting hopelessness, anger and tension have once again erupted into a deadly cycle of violence that is increasingly difficult to contain," and "too many people, overwhelmingly Palestinian have been killed and injured."
In a grim assessment, the special coordinator for the Middle East peace process said the downward spiral in the West Bank and current volatile situation stem from decades of violence that has taken a toll on Israelis and Palestinians, the prolonged absence of negotiations, and the failure to resolve key issues fueling the Israel-Palestinian conflict. Wennesland said his message to Palestinian officials and factions, Israeli officials and the international community in recent weeks has been clear: "The immediate priority is to work to calm the situation and reverse the negative trends on the ground" but the goal must be "to empower and strengthen the Palestinian Authority and build towards a return to a political process." In the past month, the U.N. envoy said 32 Palestinians including six children were killed by Israeli security forces and 311 injured during demonstrations, clashes, search-and-arrest operations, attacks and alleged attacks against Israelis. Two Israeli forces personnel were killed and 25 Israeli civilians were injured by Palestinians during shooting and ramming attacks, clashes, the throwing of stones and Molotov cocktails and other incidents during the same period, he said.
Wennesland said the month saw "a spike in fatal violence" that has 2022 on track to be the deadliest in the West Bank. More than 125 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli-Palestinian fighting in the West Bank and east Jerusalem this year. The fighting has surged since a series of Palestinian attacks killed 19 people in Israel in the spring. The Israeli army says most of the Palestinians killed have been militants. But stone-throwing youths protesting the incursions and others not involved in confrontations have also been killed.
Ongoing Israeli arrest raids in the West Bank pose a serious challenge to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas' Palestinian Authority. Abbas relies on security cooperation with Israel, particularly against his Islamic militant rivals, to remain in power. At the same time, this cooperation is deeply unpopular among Palestinians who chafe against Israel's open-ended occupation, now in its 56th year. Israel captured the West Bank in the 1967 Mideast war and has built more than 130 settlements there, many of which resemble small towns, with apartment blocks, shopping malls and industrial zones. The Palestinians want the West Bank to form the main part of their future state. Most countries view the settlements as a violation of international law.Riyad Mansour, the Palestinian U.N. ambassador, delivered an impassioned address to the Security Council on Friday, saying: "Our people, our children, our youth are being killed, and they will not die in vain." "What happens next is your responsibility," he told council members. "We knocked on every door, searched for any avenue leading to freedom and dignity, justice and redress, shared peace and security." Yet, Mansour said that 75 years after the British partition of Palestine, its people are still waiting "for their turn to be free," and he accused Israel of "trying to destroy the state of Palestine." The Palestinian ambassador challenged the Security Council to protect and promote the two-state solution, and he raised a series of questions that allude to the possibility of further bloodshed and a decades-long fight for freedom if necessary, and possible legal action at the International Court of Justice on Israel's occupation. "Either we live side by side, or I fear we might die side by side," Mansour said of Israel. "Help us live. … Our people will not disappear, they will not renege their national identity, they will not accept subjugation. The Palestinian people will be free." Israel's U.N. Ambassador Gilad Erdan countered that the message in Abbas' speech to world leaders last month and Mansour's statement Friday were the same: "It is a message of false victimhood, lies of oppression and fictions of aggression." "Israel is in the midst of a terror wave," he told the council. "Since the start of this year alone, there have been over 4,000 Palestinian terror attacks perpetrated against Israelis — car ramming, rock throwing, fire bombings, stabbing, shootings, rockets, and many other acts of Palestinian violence have been become a fact of life for millions of Israelis." Erdan said "the Palestinian Authority may play victim here at the council" but he said on the streets of the West Bank cities of Jenin and Nablus they "praise terrorists."Palestinian leaders say they want peace but Erdan said "they consistently refused to sit down at the negotiating table with Israel and have rejected every peace plan placed before them." At the General Assembly last month ,Abbas launched a campaign for full membership at the United Nations "while bypassing the negotiating table," Erdan said. Palestine is currently a non-member observer state at the U.N.
Erdan stressed that "peace can only be achieved through direct negotiations and mutual — I repeat mutual — concessions."

Germany: EU Examines Classifying IRGC as Terrorist
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 30 October, 2022
Germany and the European Union are examining whether to classify Iran's Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on Sunday. "I made it clear last week that we will launch another package of sanctions, that we will examine how we can also list the Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization," Baerbock said in an interview with ARD broadcaster. Her comments come after the head of the Revolutionary Guards warned protesters that Saturday would be their last day of taking to the streets, in a sign that security forces may intensify their already fierce crackdown on widespread unrest. Germany last week said it was tightening entry restrictions on Iran beyond an already announced EU sanctions package. Baebock also said there were currently no negotiations about the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and the West.

EU examines classifying Iran Revolutionary Guards as terrorists: Germany
Reuters/30 October ,2022
Germany and the European Union are examining whether to classify Iran's Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organisation, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on Sunday. “I made it clear last week that we will launch another package of sanctions, that we will examine how we can also list the Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization,” Baerbock said in an interview with ARD broadcaster on Sunday. Her comments come after the head of the Revolutionary Guards warned protesters that Saturday would be their last day of taking to the streets, in a sign that security forces may intensify their already fierce crackdown on widespread unrest. Germany last week said it was tightening entry restrictions on Iran beyond an already announced EU sanctions package. Baebock also said there were currently no negotiations about the nuclear agreement between Iran and the West.

Iran Says it Will Not Allow ‘Enemies’ to Undermine its Security
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 30 October, 2022
Security is Iran's red line and it will not allow its enemies to undermine it, President Ebrahim Raisi said on Sunday according to state media, at a time when the country is experiencing nationwide protests following the death of Mahsa Amini in September. "Security is a red line” and “we will not allow the enemy to implement in any way its designs to undermine this valuable national asset," Raisi said. Weeks of protest in Iran entered a more violent phase on Sunday as students defied an ultimatum by the Revolutionary Guards and were met with tear gas, beatings and gunfire from riot police and militia, social media videos showed. The confrontations at dozens of universities prompted a threat of a tougher crackdown in the seventh week of demonstrations since 22-year-old Amini died after she was arrested by the morality police for attire deemed inappropriate. Iranians from all walks of life have been protesting since Amini's death.

Trudeau joins Canadian demonstrators in support of Iran protests
AFP/30 October ,2022
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau marched with protesters in the Canadian capital of Ottawa Saturday in support of demonstrations that have swept Iran for more than 40 days. “The women in Iran, daughters and the grandmothers and the allies... they are not forgotten,” Trudeau said, standing in front of a white banner covered with dozens of red hand prints. Iran has been gripped by six weeks of protests that erupted when Mahsa Amini, 22, died in custody after her arrest for an alleged breach of Iran’s strict dress rules for women. “We will stand with you. I’ll march with you, I will hold hands with you. We will continue to stand with this beautiful community,” Trudeau said, before ending his speech by shouting Persian slogans, his fist raised. The prime minister’s wife, Sophie Gregoire Trudeau, also joined the protest, saying, “I stand with you because when one woman’s right is being denied, it is a sign of disrespect for all women.”
“And we will leave no sister behind.”Trudeau highlighted several rounds of sanctions imposed by the Canadian government against senior Iranian officials over the last month, levied due to the regime’s “gross and systematic human rights violations.” Amini supporters also attended rallies in other Canadian cities, including Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto, where marchers formed human chains. And thousands also protested Saturday in Paris and throughout France.

Blinken accuses Russia of again weaponizing food with halt of grain deal with Ukraine
Reuters/October 30, 2022
WASHINGTON: Russia’s halting of its participation in the United Nations-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative grain deal is weaponizing food by exacerbating humanitarian crises, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Saturday. “Any act by Russia to disrupt these critical grain exports is essentially a statement that people and families around the world should pay more for food or go hungry,” Blinken said in a statement. Russia on Saturday suspended participation in grain deal after what it said was a major Ukrainian drone attack on its fleet in Crimea. US President Joe Biden denounced the move as “purely outrageous” and said it would increase starvation. Russia’s defense ministry said Ukraine attacked the Black Sea Fleet near Sevastopol on the annexed Crimean peninsula with 16 drones early on Saturday, and that British navy “specialists” had helped coordinate the “terrorist” attack. The suspension will cut Ukrainian grain exports from its crucial Black Sea ports. “There’s no merit to what they’re doing. The UN negotiated that deal and that should be the end of it,” Biden told reporters in his home state of Delaware. The deal allows shipments of grain from Ukraine, one of the world’s largest exporters, that the Russian invasion had halted. Russia told UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres in a letter, seen by Reuters, that it was suspending the deal for an “indefinite term” because it could not “guarantee safety of civilian ships” traveling under the pact. Russia has also asked the UN Security Council to meet on Monday on the attack, Russia’s Deputy UN Ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy wrote on Twitter. The UN coordinator for the Istanbul-based Black Sea grain deal coordination center — made up of UN, Russian, Ukrainian and Turkish officials — said five outbound and four inbound vessels had safely passed through the humanitarian corridor. “There are more than 10 vessels both outbound and inbound waiting to enter the corridor,” Amir Abdulla said in a statement, adding there was no agreement between the parties for the movement of vessels on Sunday. Britain on Saturday said Russia’s claims, including that British navy personnel blew up the Nord Stream pipelines last month, were false and aimed at distracting attention from Russian military failures.
Russia said it had repelled the attack but that the ships targeted were involved in ensuring the grain corridor out of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said what he called Russia’s nonsensical move required a strong international response from the UN and the Group of 20 major economies. “This is a completely transparent attempt by Russia to return to the threat of large-scale famine for Africa, for Asia,” Zelensky said in a video address, adding that Russia should be kicked out of the G20. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Moscow was using a false pretext to sink the deal. “I call on all states to demand Russia to stop its hunger games and recommit to its obligations,” Kuleba said. In a statement, the European Union said “all parties must refrain from any unilateral action that would imperil” a deal it described as a critical humanitarian effort.
’Hunger games’
Since Russia and Ukraine signed the UN-backed Black Sea Grain Initiative in Turkey on July 22, more than 9 million tons of corn, wheat, sunflower products, barley, rapeseed and soya have been exported. But ahead of the Nov. 19 expiry of the deal, Russia had repeatedly said that there are serious problems with it. Ukraine complained Moscow had blocked almost 200 ships from picking up grain cargoes. The United Nations is in contact with Russian authorities about the situation, a UN spokesman said. Although the prices in the Western markets were reduced, Russia did not gain anything from this agreement,” said Turan Oguz, a Turkish defense analyst. “I think the main reason for Russia’s withdrawal is Western indifference toward Russia.”Just 24 hours before Russia’s move, a spokesman for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres had appealed to the parties to renew the pact. Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev said Russia was ready to supply up to 500,000 tons of grain to poor countries in the next four months for free, with assistance from Turkey, and supplant supplies of Ukrainian grains.

EU urges Russia to resume role in Ukraine grain export deal
Agence France Presse/October 30/2022
The European Union on Sunday urged Russia to reverse its decision to suspend participation in a vital Ukraine grain export deal. "Russia’s decision to suspend participation in the Black Sea deal puts at risks the main export route of much needed grain and fertilizers to address the global food crisis caused by its war against Ukraine," the bloc's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell tweeted. "The EU urges Russia to revert its decision."

Ukraine grain exports halted after Russia suspends deal participation
Agence France Presse/October 30/2022
Ukraine's maritime grain exports were halted Sunday after Russia suspended its participation in a landmark agreement that allowed the vital shipments, blaming drone attacks on its ships in Crimea. The July deal to unlock grain exports signed between Russia and Ukraine and brokered by Turkey and the U.N., is critical to easing the global food crisis caused by the conflict. The agreement had already allowed more than nine million tons of Ukrainian grain to be exported and was due to be renewed on November 19. On Saturday, Russia said it was halting its participation after its army accused Kyiv of a "massive" drone attack on its Black Sea fleet, which Ukraine labelled a "false pretext". U.S. President Joe Biden called the move "purely outrageous" while Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Moscow was "weaponizing food." The center coordinating the logistics of the deal said in a statement that no traffic was planned for Sunday. "A joint agreement has not been reached at the JCC for the movement of inbound and outbound vessels on 30 October," it said. "There are more than ten vessels both outbound and inbound waiting to enter the corridor."Ukraine and the UN have urged that the agreement remains in force. "I call on all states to demand that Russia stop its hunger games and recommit to fulfilling its obligations," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Twitter.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the Russian move "an absolutely transparent intention of Russia to return the threat of large-scale famine to Africa and Asia". "Just today, more than two million tons of food are in the sea. This means that access to food has actually worsened for more than seven million consumers," he said in his nightly address. Stephane Dujarric, spokesman for the UN secretary-general, said: "It is vital that all parties refrain from any action that would imperil the Black Sea Grain Initiative which is a critical humanitarian effort".
'Peddling false claims'
Sevastopol in Moscow-annexed Crimea has been targeted several times in recent months and serves as the headquarters for the Black Sea fleet and a logistical hub for operations in Ukraine. The Russian army claimed to have "destroyed" nine aerial drones and seven maritime ones in an attack on the port early Saturday. "In light of the terrorist act carried out by the Kyiv regime with the participation of British experts against ships of the Black Sea fleet and civilian vessels involved in the security of grain corridors, Russia suspends its participation in the implementation of the agreement on the export of agricultural products from Ukrainian ports," the Russian defense ministry said on Telegram. Moscow's forces alleged British "specialists", whom they said were based in the southern Ukrainian city of Ochakiv, had helped prepare and train Kyiv to carry out the strike.  In a further singling out of the UK -- which Moscow sees as one of the most unfriendly Western countries -- Russia said the same British unit was involved in explosions on the Nord Stream gas pipelines last month. Britain strongly rebutted both claims, saying "the Russian Ministry of Defense is resorting to peddling false claims of an epic scale". Russia's foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Saturday Moscow would raise the blasts and the alleged drone attack at the UN Security Council. Moscow's military said ships targeted at their Crimean base were involved in the grain deal. The United Nations Coordinator for the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Amir Abdulla, reported that Russia had notified him earlier Saturday of "its concerns about the safety of movements of merchant vessels" under the agreement. Russia had recently criticized the deal, saying its own grain exports have suffered due to Western sanctions.
'Massive' attack -
Mikhail Razvozhayev, the Moscow-installed governor of Sevastopol, said Saturday's drone attack was the "most massive" the peninsula had seen. City authorities said the harbor was "temporarily" closed to boats and ferries and urged people "not to panic."Attacks on Crimea, annexed by Moscow in 2014, have increased in recent weeks, as Kyiv presses a counter-offensive in the south to retake territory held by Moscow for months. Moscow-installed authorities in Kherson, just north of Crimea, have vowed to turn the city into a fortress, preparing for an inevitable assault. In early October, Moscow's bridge linking Crimea to the Russian mainland -- personally inaugurated by President Vladimir Putin in 2018 -- was damaged by a blast that Putin blamed on Ukraine. The Russian fleet stationed in the port had also been attacked by a drone in August. Russia's allegations Saturday came as the Ukrainian army reported fighting in the Lugansk and Donetsk regions in the east, including near Bakhmut -- the only area where Moscow's forces have advanced in recent weeks.  Pro-Russian separatists fighting alongside Moscow also announced a new prisoner exchange with Kyiv, saying 50 will return home from each side.

More than 150 killed in Halloween stampede in Seoul
Agence France Presse/October 30/2022
More than 150 people were killed in a stampede at a Halloween event in central Seoul, officials said Sunday, with South Korea's president vowing a full investigation into one of the country's worst disasters. The crowd surge and crush hit in the capital's popular Itaewon district, where police estimate as many as 100,000 people -- mostly in their teens and 20s -- went to celebrate Halloween Saturday night, clogging the area's narrow alleyways and winding streets. President Yoon Suk-yeol declared a period of national mourning Sunday, telling the country in a televised address that "a tragedy and disaster occurred that should not have happened". He said the government "will thoroughly investigate the cause of the incident and make fundamental improvements to ensure the same accident does not occur again in the future". "My heart is heavy and it is difficult to contain my sorrow," he added, before he visited the scene of the disaster and spoke to emergency workers. Eyewitnesses described being trapped in a narrow, sloping alleyway, and scrambling to get out of the suffocating crowd as people piled on top of one another. The fire department said at least 151 people, including 19 foreigners, were killed in the stampede, which occurred around 10:00 pm (1300 GMT). Most of the victims were young women in their 20s, it said, adding that 89 people were injured.  The Interior Ministry said most victims had now been identified. "The high number of casualties was the result of many being trampled during the Halloween event," fire official Choi Seong-beom told reporters at the scene, adding that the death toll could climb. Seoul authorities said they had also received 355 reports of missing people by early Sunday.
'Unprecedentedly large'
Officials said Sunday they had no clear idea of what caused the crush, while eyewitnesses described scenes of chaos as a vast crowd panicked in a narrow alleyway. Local shopkeepers told AFP that the number of people at the annual celebration was "unprecedentedly large" this year -- the first event to be held without Covid-19 restrictions since the pandemic began. "There were so many people just being pushed around and I got caught in the crowd and I couldn't get out at first too," 30-year-old Jeon Ga-eul told AFP. As questions began to emerge over the lack of security at the event, Interior Minister Lee Sang-min told a briefing that the police force had been occupied on the other side of town. "I am not certain about the exact number of police personnel deployed (to Itaewon) but a considerable number had been deployed at Gwanghwamun where a large crowd was expected for a protest," he said. Police had also not expected such a large crowd at the Halloween event, he said.  "The expected size of the crowd in Itaewon did not deviate much from the previous years, so I understand that the personnel were deployed at a similar scale as before." Paramedics at the scene, quickly overwhelmed by the number of victims, were asking passers-by to administer first aid. In an interview with local broadcaster YTN, Lee Beom-suk, a doctor who administered first aid to the victims described scenes of tragedy and chaos. "So many victims' faces were pale. I could not catch their pulse or breath and many of them had a bloody nose. When I tried CPR, I also pumped blood out of their mouths." AFP photos showed scores of bodies on the pavement covered by bed sheets, and emergency workers dressed in orange vests loading even more bodies on stretchers into ambulances.
'Oh my god'
Twitter user @janelles_story shared a video that she said showed Itaewon shortly before the stampede, in which hundreds of young people, many in elaborate Halloween costumes, are seen in a narrow street lined with bars and cafes. The crowd appears in good spirits at first, but then a commotion begins and people start being pushed into one another. Screams and gasps are heard and a female voice cries out in English "Shit, shit!" followed by "Oh my god, oh my god!"The 19 foreigners killed included victims from Iran, Uzbekistan, China and Norway, Yonhap reported. Russia's Tass news agency said two of the victims were Russian. The Chinese Embassy in Seoul confirmed on its official WeChat account that three Chinese citizens had died in the stampede. Seoul's staunch ally, US President Joe Biden, said America "stands with" South Korea after the tragedy, while Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he was "hugely shocked and deeply saddened" by the disaster.

Algeria summit will be milestone on road to revitalizing joint Arab action: Aboul Gheit
Gobran Mohamed/Arab News/October 30, 2022
Arab League secretary-general calls for serious efforts to end bloodshed, political and security crises in countries such as Syria and Libya
CAIRO: Global developments should not affect the pursuit of solving Arab issues, said Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit at the opening session of the foreign ministers’ preparatory meeting for the 31st Arab Summit, to be held in Algeria on Nov. 1-2.
“We all aspire that this summit will be a milestone on the road to revitalizing joint Arab action, renewing its blood and enhancing its effectiveness,” he said, adding the summit was taking place after nearly three years of interruption due to the COVID-19 pandemic and amid major developments on the international and regional stage. He stressed that the summit is the most important mechanism of joint Arab action as it sets its regulatory framework, formulates the vision within which it acts, and determines strategic objectives. He also said the Arab League “remains in need of all of your support in order to continue to fulfill its mission — whether by fulfilling contributions according to the quotas established for countries, or by actively engaging in its work, in all fields and aspects of activity that are organized under its umbrella.”Aboul Gheit stressed the need to work to end political and security crises in countries such as Syria and Libya.
He added that these crises not only burden the region with an unimaginable humanitarian and economic cost, but also provide loopholes through which non-Arab regional powers implement subversive plans. Addressing these crises and reaching political settlements remains the most important key to ending harmful and destabilizing interventions, he added. Aboul Gheit said that there was no doubt that the food crisis and the threat to food security were important priorities, and expressed hope that the summit would witness the launch of the Arab food security strategy. He referred to the emergencies in some countries, including Somalia, where about half of the population are on the brink of famine. He voiced concern that the world was heading toward more polarization and hardening of positions and alliances, and that the ongoing war in Ukraine reflected what major power struggles could lead to in terms of negative consequences for all countries. The next stage, according to Aboul Gheit, requires continuous Arab diplomatic coordination in order to formulate strong collective positions that reflect consensus, and promote Arab interests in a global environment marked by extreme fluidity on the one hand, and blocs and polarization on the other. Aboul Gheit praised Algeria’s efforts in gathering the Palestinian factions to sign a reconciliation agreement on Oct. 13. He said the Palestinian issue was going through a difficult stage, adding that the recent signing of the Palestinian Reconciliation Agreement in Algeria represented a step on the right path. “We all look forward to a practical translation of this agreement and a commitment on the part of the Palestinian factions to implement its terms,” he said, adding that the Israeli occupation was erasing all traces of the Oslo Accords and undermining the basis of a future two-state solution.
“On the other hand, we see international parties that do not defend this solution except with words and rhetoric, without any practical plan to launch a serious peace process, or any actual work to preserve the two-state solution or give the Palestinians a light at the end of the long tunnel of occupation.”
He emphasized that the current stage requires “serious work from us in order to strengthen Palestinian steadfastness at all political and economic levels.”

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 30-31.2022
The Clash of Global Visions Between Strategy and Noise
Raghida Dergham/The National/October 30, 2022
In the clash of visions between key powers like the United States and China, energy and security infrastructure are consistently being leveraged as key elements in global alignment and in the new world generated by the war in Ukraine, this continues to be the case. But what is remarkable is the growing role of states like Australia, India, and Saudi Arabia in the constitution of the coming international system.
Now, some of the questions on everyone’s mind include: How could the United States lead the new system and what is its vision for regional contributions in it? What will the new security structure in Europe look like after the collapse of the previous one? What form will the standoff with China take if tensions continue and if China responds to the trilateral security mechanism established by the United States, the UK, and Australia (AUKUS) with measures against Taiwan along the lines of Russia’s intervention in the Donbas in Ukraine? How will the world deal with the North Korean nuclear challenge, reignited most recently with the launch of two ballistic missiles this week amid fears of a new NK nuclear test? What comes after the scorched earth policy adopted by Russia in its war in Ukraine? How will the Russian-Iranian-Israeli relations be impacted if Israel supplies arms to Ukraine? What will Russian President Vladimir Putin do now and what are the mechanisms of his vision for his existential battle with the West?
During his speech at the Valdai Discussion Club this week, Putin stressed that the current crisis affects everyone. He said that humankind is at a fork in the road: either keep accumulating problems and eventually get crushed under their weight, or work together to create a new order. He said the situation in the world was heading towards a worst-case scenario, warning the West that “he who sows the wind will reap the whirlwind”.
Putin said that Russia was not an enemy of the West, and that it would be impossible to implement a scenario of destruction against Russia or turn it into a tool to achieve the West’s geopolitical objectives. But he stressed that boundless Western domination in world affairs is coming to an end. He said that the world is undergoing the most dangerous, unpredictable and at the same time most important decade since the end of World War II, and that what is happening will ultimately be beneficial for Russia’s future. Putin accused the West of triggering the war in Ukraine and of making systemic missteps when Russia had tried to build relations with NATO, its message being “let us live together”.
The Russian president made comments that raised further nuclear concerns, saying that as long as nuclear weapons exist, there will always be a danger that they could be used. But he issued a slightly reassuring message in the context of talking about dialogue with the United States, saying: We are ready to settle any issues. Interestingly, he criticised the assassination of Qassem Soleimani by the West on the territories of a third country, as if he wanted to tell his allies in Tehran he had not forgotten their issues. Indeed, Iran is a battlefield ally in Russia’s war in Ukraine as it has been in Syria.
Putin’s speech at the Valdai club gave a glimpse of his vision for Russia’s role in the new international system, bearing in mind he is determined to continue his strategy to crush Ukraine militarily, convinced that the West will give in and eventually abandon President Volodymyr Zelenksy.
The talk circulating in some US and international forums about pushing for some kind of a ceasefire so that the war in Ukraine does not destroy the global economy may impress some in the Kremlin, for its implications suggesting the West needs such a ceasefire. But in Putin’s view, ceasefire means defeat. This word is taboo in the dictionary of the Russian president and ruling establishment because Ukraine is an existential issue and concerns the survival of an entire political system created by Putin, not just the survival of Putin himself.
According to the new National Defense Strategy (NDS) released by the Pentagon on Thursday, “Russia poses acute threats both to vital US national interests abroad and to the homeland” but “the most comprehensive and serious challenge to US national security is the People Republic of China’s coercive and increasingly aggressive endeavor to refashion the Indo-Pacific region and the international system to suit its interests and authoritarian preferences”. Following the release, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said that the key theme of the NDS is the need to sustain and strengthen US deterrence with the People's Republic of China, which he said is “the only competitor out there with both the intent to reshape the international order, and increasingly the power to do so”. As for Russia, he said, despite being an “acute threat”, “it can't systemically challenge the United States over the long term”.
For its part, China has a vision lasting into the year 2050, and it takes into account the importance of establishing ties with regional players, in the framework of – yet beyond – the Belt and Road Initiative. Chinese President Xi Jinping, who just secured a third term, will visit Saudi Arabia soon where he will hold three summits: A Chinese-Saudi summit, a Chinese-Gulf summit, and a Chinese-Arab summit, according to Saudi FM Prince Faisal Bin Farhan following a meeting of the Political and Foreign Affairs Committee of the Sino-Saudi High-Level Joint Committee. Prime Faisal said that the kingdom was the top destination for Chinese foreign investment in the first three months of 2022.
Gulf relations with China do not at all reflect an alignment with Beijing away from traditional, historic, and security relations with the United States. Cementing the frameworks and institutions of US-Saudi relations is something that both Washington and Riyadh are working on, despite the apparent crisis between the two countries over energy and OPEC+’s decision to cut oil production by two million barrels per day.
Indeed, Saudi Arabia is a regional player than can be an enabler of a new international system, something of extreme importance to the United States as it sets out to lead the new system. From energy to security, Saudi Arabia is a contributor to be reckoned with, especially since security and economic structures and mechanisms will play a central role in the new system.
During the Future Investment Initiative (FII) convened in Riyadh this week, senior leaders from US financial institutions were present, making a positive participation in the effort to move US-Saudi relations past the fleeting state of tension towards solid foundations, and the construction of a new world order.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said at the event that the world is six months away from a recession, but said: “The most important thing is the geopolitics around Russia and Ukraine, America and China…would be far more concerning than whether there’s a mild or slightly severe recession”. Regarding US-Saudi relations, he said: “Saudi Arabia and the US have been allies for 75 years. I can’t imagine any allies agreeing on everything and not having problems…They will work it through and I’m comfortable folks on both sides are working through and these countries will remain allies going forward”.
In turn, the Saudi leadership understands the importance of avoiding what could be construed as provocative or reactive steps given the sensitivity surrounding the relationship especially in the US Congress and media. The Saudi leadership is aware that Riyadh can play an exceptional role in the strategic alignment of the entire region in the coming international system, a crucial issue for the kingdom and the Gulf and rest of the Arab states.
Prominent Saudi speakers at the FII were keen not only to underscore the centrality of relations with the United States and of expanding cooperation with other states like China, but also stressed Saudi Arabia’s determination to invest heavily in struggling Arab countries, especially since the prosperity of the Gulf means its countries are in a unique position in today’s world hit by contraction, inflation, and economic slowdown.
As Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan said, the next six years will be good for the Gulf states and difficult for the wider Middle East region, and that therefore, Saudi Arabia must offer support for the region while the world “adapts”. The Saudi Public Investment Fund announced plans to invest $24 billion in 5 Arab countries to support their economies, including Bahrain, Oman, Jordan, Iraq, and Sudan, while Egypt had received similar support recently.
What will happen in the Gulf and the Middle East in this period will depend somehow on what Iran will do at home, in the region, and in states where it intervenes through its partners like Hezbollah in Lebanon. Somehow, but not wholly. Indeed, while the Arab Gulf states are seeking to establish normal relations with their Iranian neighbor they are also working to protect themselves in the event of contingent threats. And one of the most important ways they are working to achieve this is to build up their states, enact reforms, and ensure youth participation in building their future.
Iran is preoccupied with its domestic problems, but it may yet be influenced but what is happening around it, including the move away from religious extremism. Some believe this could impact Iran’s future after the demise of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with the influence of the mullahs and religious influence receding. The threat here, however, is that this could allow the IRGC to rule Iran overtly and not covertly, bearing in mind that the IRGC’s regional and foreign policies are extremist policies.
The receding hopes in the lifting of US sanctions as a result of the clinical death of the JCPOA nuclear agreement, the eruption of protests that have exposed the regime, and Iran’s military involvement in Ukraine in support of Russia, could all mean that Tehran will continue to stall for time until further notice.
Yet this notice may not come from Iran, but from Russia. Indeed, an informed source said that Russia has informed Israel any move by the latter to supply arms to Ukraine will prompt Moscow to take retaliatory measures in Syria. These measures may not stop at downing Israeli planes in Syrian airspace, but could include, according to the source, allowing Iran to “create trouble in the region” at different levels and on different fronts.
The source said that Israel’s actions in Syria are not going to be the trigger for Moscow’s anger, as Russia is willing to live with that. But if Israel moves to supply weapons to Ukraine, this could lead to encouraging Iran to directly conduct strikes against Israel. Moscow’s assessment is that Iran will be ready for such a gamble in response to the failure of the JCPOA, in which case Israel would be blamed for preventing the Biden administration from concluding the deal.
But the counterview is that Iran will rein itself in as much as possible, and attempt not to get further involved in the Russian war in Ukraine. In such a scenario, the regime in Iran may relent a little, at least for the time being, until the features of the major geopolitical conflicts become clearer.

Has the Left Lost its Right Hand?
Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/October, 30/2022
Yes… The title of this column is ironic. However, the intention is not to engage in schadenfreude but to ask if the liberal-left lost its right hand in propaganda and whipping up tensions after Elon Musk purchased Twitter? Musk, who is disgruntled with the left, recently tweeted that “the bird is freed” and “let the good times roll” in celebration of his purchase of Twitter. His acquisition comes after the left went to unprecedented lengths to exclude rivals from the platform, going further than the most notorious of dictatorial regimes. It demonized whomever it wanted to demonize and sought to grant legitimacy to those it considered worthy. Acquiring Twitter is not a business decision. Rather, it is part of a bone-breaking battle with the left, which has been vicious in imposing its agenda, not only in the US but across the world. The left did not merely seek to impose its political agenda through social media. It decided to rule the world, decide which ideas are right and which are wrong, determine how we should raise our children, and what should and should not be said. It did so in an ugly dictatorial manner as it sought to turn people living in rural India into copies of those living in California.
Twitter banned former US President Donald Trump from tweeting while he was still in office. Whether you agree or disagree with Trump, this is bigger than that. How can we allow an unregulated company to impose regulations?
Musk’s acquisition of Twitter is thus no ordinary event. It is a turning point. The question is: Will the left try to create another competing platform and social media version of the competition between Fox News and CNN?
Has Musk paralyzed the left’s right hand by purchasing Twitter? Or will it spark a social media battle that negates the value of these platforms? Will it impose regulations like those imposed on the media? Would the media benefit from such a decision, given that the entire battle is over credibility?
We are faced with a credibility crisis. We cannot depend on a single US broadcaster today and have to follow several broadcasters to uncover the facts of matters, the motivations behind them, and whether the news we are reading is credible or part of an organized campaign.
Musk tweeted: “The New York Times has emerged as a new, chaotic actor in global politics. The paper’s interventions in some of the world’s most combustible conflicts have sometimes been a boon, but their messaging has also caused problems.”
He then added that this is “according to unnamed sources close to the matter who wish to remain anonymous,” in a jab at how the paper has covered his recent acquisition of Twitter. Indeed, he accuses liberals, including the newspaper, of representing the “woke wing” of America.
Musk also tweeted: “A beautiful thing about Twitter is how it empowers citizen journalism – people are able to disseminate news without an establishment bias.” This bias is a major problem, and it is not true. How can a tweeter determine, for example, the varsity news regarding something that happened between two states? What are the criteria? We have already seen such over-simplistic rhetoric on Facebook.
We are looking at a real credibility crisis precipitated by the left, whether on social media platforms, which brought pitiful figures to prominence or on media outlets, which also brought pitiful figures to prominence. Indeed, the latter gave like of the Houthi terrorists a platform. They also gave voice even more pitiful figures, who think they can shape the scene with their grudges!

Iran Is The Event!
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/October 30/2022
There is no shortage of new headlines about the Middle East in the international press. There are headlines of every kind, summing up the region's many open-ended conflicts and aborted attempts. Nevertheless, most of these events seem repetitive- deja vu to an extent. This leaves boredom replacing hope and leaves us with a sense of dejection inimical to dynamism. Instead of the event arousing a response and pushing us to do something and take action, it makes us drowsy.
Sometimes, the events currently unfolding in our region resemble endings that had been artificially stretched in an excessive manner or deaths that refuse to confirm their death and to die, or these events merely have predictable ramifications and repercussions on unfinished events that had preceded them. This stagnation is usually accompanied by the world turning its back and ignoring us.
As for events that differ slightly and do entail some sort of novelty, like the demarcation of the Lebanese-Israeli maritime borders, they are made obscure. Their actual meaning is falsified, while revealing the fact of the matter is forbidden.
Generally, what is most significant remains that the impact of our many events has become limited to the geographical space in which they take place, most of the time. Rarely does our region produce events that have an impact on a country other than that in which they had taken place. This does not negate their being extremely costly in terms of blood and physical devastation, which are now unfortunately being sacrificed for nothing in return- rather, with no hope of getting anything in return.
Only Iran is different. Today, it has produced an event in every sense of the word. It is the event.
It is neither typical nor familiar for women in this part of the world to revolt against a patriarchal tyrannical regime that bases its legitimacy on its interpretation of the divine. It is not an everyday development for ethnic minorities, first and foremost the Kurds, to revolt against a fortified tyrannical centralized regime either, nor for some cracks to emerge within the regime that comes closest to modern totalitarianism in our region after it had blended this totalitarianism with hubristic theocracy.
In contrast to events unfolding elsewhere, the developments in Iran have broad implications for the region. As we well know, Iran has established a presence in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and the Gulf, meaning that if its regime were to collapse, it would be the collapse of an empire and an event in the same category as major wars and turning points that end one era and inaugurate another. With the collapse of such a regime, so too collapses an ideological system that promises salvation and a "third path" and that claims to champion millions of oppressed people around the world.
Moreover, the Iranian event had not been expected, and its potential ramifications could surprise us as well, while predictions of how things will play out are tenuous and vague. Even the many preceding revolts against that regime might not be very useful for processing what is happening today and predicting what will happen tomorrow.
All that can be said in the meantime- with a degree of reluctance and reservation, as well as some embarrassment at what might seem like an attempt to patronize the Iranian men and women revolutionaries- is declarations of preferences that opting for could benefit the movement and its trajectory. These preferences include meeting the need to produce leadership cadres and crystallize new ideas further, especially those regarding the extremely complicated problems of nationalities and minorities.
In any case, regardless of its outcomes, we are looking at what an unequivocally historical event. We are looking at a revolution facing the wars and counter-revolutions of our region. We are looking at a war of hope, which is striving and resisting after its defeats in our Arab homelands.
Iran, once all is said and done, is not only significant because it is a country of 86 million people with an area of approximately 1.7 million square kilometers that borders Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Pakistan, Turkey and Turkmenistan. Nor does its importance stem solely from its wealth in oil, gas and natural resources, or even from the fact that it is the birthplace of a civilization and culture whose roots go back to ancient times- a culture whose influence can be seen from Persia to the southern Caucasus, Central Asia, Anatolia and Mesopotamia, and in which art, poetry, architecture, technology, medicine and philosophy all flourished. Iran is also important because the 1979 revolution and its Khomeinist Republic must fall. They ushered in a dark era and unleashed the grandest of the barbaric repudiations of everything bright and promising the Middle East has seen in decades.
And so, just as the inhabitants of the Roman Empire, from Europe to North Africa and Western Asia, followed news from Rome, which was considered to shape their lives and deaths, we follow the news from Tehran to watch and bear witness to this regime falling. Sooner or later, it will fall.

Congress Must Increase its Support for Ukraine, Not Cut and Run
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/October 30/2022
[R]educing American support for Kyiv -- as some American politicians are suggesting -- will not only constitute an unconscionable betrayal of the Ukrainian cause. It will encourage Putin, and allies such as Iran, to conduct further acts of territorial aggression.
[I]t is, perhaps, inevitable that a degree of conflict fatigue has set in among some politicians. But with Ukraine still managing to inflict significant defeats against its Russian adversary, the Ukrainians require more support, not less, if they are to succeed in their goal of achieving a conclusive victory and liberating their country from Russian occupation.
Kevin McCarthy, the Republican House minority leader, caused controversy earlier this month when he said that Republicans would not be prepared to write a "blank check" for Ukraine if they win control of the House at next month's midterm elections.
McCarthy's words provoked a fierce response....
Ukrainian officials also expressed "shock" at his comments as only a few weeks ago, during a visit to Washington, they had received an assurance from McCarthy that "bipartisan support of Ukraine in its war with Russia will remain a top priority even if they win in the elections", said David Arakhamia, head of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksy's party in parliament.
The prospect of a new "axis of evil" being formed between two rogue states such as Russia and Iran is certainly a prospect that should encourage Western leaders to harden their support for Ukraine, not back away from it.
Any attempt by the US and its allies to appease the Kremlin over its unprovoked aggression towards Ukraine will simply encourage Moscow and Tehran in the belief that the Western powers lack the courage and resolve to resist their attempts to spread their malign influence across the globe.
Reducing US support for Kyiv -- as some American politicians are suggesting -- will not only constitute an unconscionable betrayal of the Ukrainian cause. It will encourage Putin, and allies such as Iran, to conduct further acts of territorial aggression. Pictured: Ukrainian soldiers on an armored personnel carrier near Borivske, Kharkiv region on October 23, 2022. (Photo by Yevhen Titov/AFP via Getty Images)
Russian President Vladimir Putin might be suffering a humiliating military defeat in Ukraine, but reducing American support for Kyiv -- as some American politicians are suggesting -- will not only constitute an unconscionable betrayal of the Ukrainian cause. It will encourage Putin, and allies such as Iran, to conduct further acts of territorial aggression.
With the Ukraine conflict now in its eighth month, it is, perhaps, inevitable that a degree of conflict fatigue has set in among some politicians. But with Ukraine still managing to inflict significant defeats against its Russian adversary, the Ukrainians require more support, not less, if they are to succeed in their goal of achieving a conclusive victory and liberating their country from Russian occupation.
There are worrying concerns, though, that instead of intensifying military support for Kyiv to provide it with the firepower it requires to achieve victory over Russia, America's political classes are tiring of their support role, and are instead looking for ways to scale down their contribution.
By far the most egregious attempt by American policymakers to wash their hands of the Ukraine conflict was a letter written by a clique of left-wing Democrats calling on President Joe Biden to negotiate directly with Russia to end the conflict, an approach that amounts to an unpardonable betrayal of the Ukrainian cause.
Thirty House liberals linked to the Congressional Progressive Caucus sent a letter to the White House on October 24 urging Biden to negotiate directly with Russia to bring an end to the war in Ukraine. The letter has since been withdrawn after it drew bitter criticism from other Democrats, with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, speaking in Croatia at a summit on the conflict, insisting that "support for Ukraine and the people" will not stop, claiming "support for Ukraine is bipartisan, it is bicameral."
That the letter, though, contained the signatures of the usual suspects on the left of the Democratic Party - Reps. Jamie Raskin (MD), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY), Cori Bush (MO), Ro Khanna (CA) and Ilhan Omar (MN) - indicates there is a significant body of opinion in Congress where support for Ukraine is waning.Nor is it just Democrats who have voiced reservations about the Ukrainian conflict. Kevin McCarthy, the Republican House minority leader, caused controversy earlier this month when he said that Republicans would not be prepared to write a "blank check" for Ukraine if they win control of the House at next month's midterm elections.
McCarthy's words provoked a fierce response from Republican Wyoming Senator Liz Cheney, who accused him of being the leader of the "pro-Putin" wing of the GOP.
Ukrainian officials also expressed "shock" at his comments as only a few weeks ago, during a visit to Washington, they had received an assurance from McCarthy that "bipartisan support of Ukraine in its war with Russia will remain a top priority even if they win in the elections", said David Arakhamia, head of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksy's party in parliament. This is not the first time Republican reservations over Ukraine have surfaced. In May, Republican Senators and House Representatives opposed a $40 billion security assistance package requested by Kyiv, and there are fears that Republican dissent on the issue will increase in the next Congress.
Nor is the weakening of support for the Ukraine cause confined to Washington. In Britain, the selection of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who has declared that fixing the UK economy is his main priority, might see him move away from former PM Boris Johnson's unequivocal support for Kyiv. And in Italy, one of the first tasks of newly elected Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was to reprimand former Italian leader Silvio Berlusconi over his close ties with Putin.
From Ukraine's point of view, the various calls for the West to adopt a different approach on the war with Russia could not come at a worse time. After the recent successes Ukrainian forces have enjoyed on the battlefield, there are signs that Moscow is preparing to launch a new offensive. Putin has called on Russian industry to provide more weapons, and conscripts are being press-ganged into service to reinforce Russian forces at the Ukrainian front. In addition, Russia is receiving military assistance from Iran, which is providing drones and other equipment, with US intelligence reporting that a contingent of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is now operating in Russian-occupied Crimea. The prospect of a new "axis of evil" being formed between two rogue states such as Russia and Iran is certainly a prospect that should encourage Western leaders to harden their support for Ukraine, not back away from it.
Any attempt by the US and its allies to appease the Kremlin over its unprovoked aggression towards Ukraine will simply encourage Moscow and Tehran in the belief that the Western powers lack the courage and resolve to resist their attempts to spread their malign influence across the globe.
*Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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How NATO has been revitalized by Ukraine crisis
Yasar Yakis/ Gatestone Institute/October 30, 2022
French President Emmanuel Macron stated not so long ago that NATO was experiencing “brain death.” He made the comment in an interview he gave in October 2019 to the British weekly newspaper The Economist. His assessment was partly based on the moody way then-US President Donald Trump used to conduct foreign policy and how he trivialized the European NATO countries. On the critical issue of the famous Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which constitutes the core of NATO’s deterrence, Macron wondered: “What will Article 5 mean tomorrow?”
However, many things have changed since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis and NATO does not look brain dead any longer. This is probably because many European countries feel that the threat is at their doorstep.
In order to better figure out what NATO might do in the case of a military confrontation, let us have a closer look at the text of Article 5. It states: “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them …. will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.”
The article clearly says that each member country will take “such action that it deems necessary.” This action may be a declaration of war against an attacking country. Or it may be confined to issuing a strong statement blaming the attacking country.
Thanks to the US security umbrella, the European continent enjoyed a long period of stability after the Second World War. Germany benefited the most from this umbrella as it was able to devote its resources to economic development. Apart from the Soviet interventions in Hungary in 1956 and the Prague Spring in the Czech Republic in 1968, there were no major clashes in Europe.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has definitely revitalized NATO. It may continue to further strengthen the alliance, but it may still not regain the vitality of its early decades because international organizations also get older as the years pass by.
The attitude of the European members of NATO varies according to their perception of the threat posed by Russia
The attitude of the European members of NATO vary according to their perception of the threat posed by Russia. The Baltic countries must be feeling more threatened because they restrict Russia’s entry to the open seas. Countries like Spain and Portugal, meanwhile, must be looking at Russia as part of the global power balance. Romania and Bulgaria believe that the threat may be knocking at their door.
Turkiye has always been a special case in NATO because, until the dismemberment of the Soviet Union, it was the only country that had a common border with it. As a result, it benefited from NATO’s favor and support.
However, the US has always treated Turkiye as an underdog on which it could impose any foreign policy measure. There was a famous exchange of letters in 1962 between then-US President Lyndon Johnson and Turkish Prime Minister Ismet Inonu. When Turkiye was planning a military operation in Cyprus, Johnson sent a letter saying that, if the operation went ahead, Article 5 of the NATO Charter might not be used if Moscow attacked Turkiye. So, Macron’s misgivings regarding the value of Article 5 had been put to the test as early as 1962.
The US imposed an arms embargo on its NATO ally because of Turkiye’s military intervention in Cyprus. An embargo on its own ally was nothing but a measure that weakened the alliance, but the US did it anyway. The 2019 expulsion of Turkiye from the consortium developing the sophisticated F-35 fighter plane was the most recent step taken by the US against its NATO ally.
Independent of its bumpy relations with Ankara, NATO will definitely emerge from the Ukrainian crisis as a more solid alliance. A new defense architecture is expected after the dust settles in Europe. Germany may emerge as a stronger player. It was said in the early 1950s that NATO was created in order to “to keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.” The same Germany may now become the backbone of Europe’s defense.
The American political scientist of Japanese origin Francis Fukuyama published in 1992 a book titled “The End of History and the Last Man.” He thought that liberal democracies and free market capitalism would become the final form of human government.
Despite Fukuyama, however, we are not close to the end of history.
• Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkiye and founding member of the ruling AK Party. Twitter: @yakis_yasar