English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 30/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.october30.22.htm

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006

Bible Quotations For today
The Judgment Day
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 25/31-46/:”‘When the Son of Man comes in his glory, and all the angels with him, then he will sit on the throne of his glory. All the nations will be gathered before him, and he will separate people one from another as a shepherd separates the sheep from the goats, and he will put the sheep at his right hand and the goats at the left. Then the king will say to those at his right hand, “Come, you that are blessed by my Father, inherit the kingdom prepared for you from the foundation of the world; for I was hungry and you gave me food, I was thirsty and you gave me something to drink, I was a stranger and you welcomed me, I was naked and you gave me clothing, I was sick and you took care of me, I was in prison and you visited me.” Then the righteous will answer him, “Lord, when was it that we saw you hungry and gave you food, or thirsty and gave you something to drink? And when was it that we saw you a stranger and welcomed you, or naked and gave you clothing? And when was it that we saw you sick or in prison and visited you?” And the king will answer them, “Truly I tell you, just as you did it to one of the least of these who are members of my family, you did it to me.” Then he will say to those at his left hand, “You that are accursed, depart from me into the eternal fire prepared for the devil and his angels; for I was hungry and you gave me no food, I was thirsty and you gave me nothing to drink, I was a stranger and you did not welcome me, naked and you did not give me clothing, sick and in prison and you did not visit me.” Then they also will answer, “Lord, when was it that we saw you hungry or thirsty or a stranger or naked or sick or in prison, and did not take care of you?” Then he will answer them, “Truly I tell you, just as you did not do it to one of the least of these, you did not do it to me.”And these will go away into eternal punishment, but the righteous into eternal life.’”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 29-30.2022
Outgoing president says Lebanon at risk of 'constitutional chaos'
Aoun Signals Possibility of Approving Govt Resignation, Plunging Lebanon Deeper into Vacuum
Lebanon's Aoun warns of crisis on eve of stepping down but hints at deal
Aoun to leave Lebanon presidential palace in style as term ends
President Aoun: We will not let the caretaker government run the country...We failed to achieve reform because corruption was stronger, but we shall...
Mikati: We are approaching a new stage in which we will challenge no one
Statement by EU Spokesperson on signing maritime boundary agreement
Rifi says he will not partake in any dialogue table over electing a president
Ghassan Skaf: How can we agree on border demarcation & not maintain democratic channels to agree on a President?
Report: LF tells al-Rahi its real candidate is army chief
Aoun says govt. formation seems to be 'impossible'
Bassil issues warning over powers, says ready for 'resistance'
Bassil calls on Mikati to quit, Hezbollah to boycott govt. meetings
Lebanon Announces 3 New Cholera Cases, One Death

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 29-30.2022
Iran shrine attack mourners chant against Mahsa Amini ‘riots’
Iran’s Guards Head Tells Protesters: ‘Today Is Last Day of Riots’
Iran Is an Ever More ‘Relevant’ Problem, Nuclear Watchdog Chief Says
Activist Masih Alinejad speaks on Iran protests, and why women are behind the revolution
Gunman Who Attacked Shrine in Iran Dies from Injuries
US Sanctions Iranian Group that Put Bounty on Rushdie’s Life
Russian Forces Repel Drone Attack on Crimea
Russia Says UK Navy Personnel Blew up Nord Stream Gas Pipelines
Afghan commandos that were trained by US Navy SEALs are being recruited to fight for Russia in Ukraine, report says
Russian Black Sea fleet repells alleged Ukrainian drone attack
Blackouts worsen in Ukraine; fighting rages on many fronts
Putin to host leaders of adversaries Armenia and Azerbaijan
Man Arrested in Attack on US House Speaker Pelosi's Spouse Faces Charges
Israeli Chief of Staff Orders Troops to ‘Restrain Settlers’

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 29-30.2022
Russia and Iran, New “Axis of Evil,” Emboldened by Biden Administration/Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/October 29, 2022
Why Republicans Are Surging/David Brooks/The New York Times/October, 29/2022
How Does Britain’s Conservative Government End? Maybe With a Labor Rout./Lynsey Hanley/The New York Times/October, 29/2022
Killing the Leviathan with a Thousand Cuts/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/October, 29/2022
Could the fifth election in less than four years break the political deadlock in Israel?/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/October 29, 2022
The elephant in the room at COP27 could trample our climate change hopes/Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/October 29/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 29-30.2022
Outgoing president says Lebanon at risk of 'constitutional chaos'
Reuters/October 29, 2022
Outgoing Lebanese President Michel Aoun told Reuters on Saturday his nation could be sliding into "constitutional chaos", with no one in line to succeed him and a cabinet that is operating in a caretaker capacity.
Aoun is set to leave the presidential palace on Sunday, a day before his six-year term ends, but four sessions in the nation's fractured parliament have failed to reach consensus on a candidate to succeed him. While Lebanon has faced prolonged presidential vacuums in the past, the country now finds itself on the verge of an unprecedented situation with both a vacant presidency and a caretaker cabinet with limited powers. Aoun said an 11th-hour political move to address the constitutional crisis might be possible, but said "there is no final decision" on what that could involve.
Aoun's presidency is inextricably linked in the minds of many Lebanese to their country's worst days since the 1975-1990 civil war, with the financial crisis that began in 2019 and the deadly Beirut port blast of 2020. His son-in-law Gebran Bassil, who was put on a sanctions list by the United States in 2020 for alleged corruption, has presidential ambitions. Bassil has denied the allegations, and Aoun said on Saturday the sanctions would not stop Bassil from eventually being a presidential candidate. "Once he's elected (as president), the sanctions will go away," Aoun said, without elaborating.
In his final week as president, Aoun signed a U.S.-brokered deal delineating Lebanon's southern maritime border with Israel - a modest diplomatic breakthrough that would allow both countries to extract natural gas from maritime deposits. He said powerful Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah, which sent unarmed drones over Israel and threatened to attack its offshore rigs multiple times, had served as a "deterrent" that had helped keep the negotiations going in Lebanon's favour. "It wasn't coordinated (with the government). It was an initiative taken by Hezbollah and it was useful," Aoun said.
He said the deal paved the way for gas discoveries that could be Lebanon's "last chance" at recovering from a three-year financial meltdown that has cost the currency 95% of its value and pushed 80% of the population into poverty.

Aoun Signals Possibility of Approving Govt Resignation, Plunging Lebanon Deeper into Vacuum
Beirut - Youssef Diab/Asharq Al Awsat/October,29/2022
Outgoing Lebanese President Michel Aoun stirred debate on Thursday when he said he may approve the resignation of the government should a new one not be formed, days before his term as president ends. The government usually assumes the duties of the president in case of a presidential vacuum.
Aoun’s term ends on Monday and it is unlikely that a successor will be elected on time. Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati has been unable to form a government, months since his appointment, due to disputes with Aoun. Among the disputes, was a debate over whether the caretaker government can assume the role of the executive authority during presidential vacuum. The cabinet has been acting in a caretaker capacity since parliamentary elections that were held in May. Aoun on Friday accused Mikati and his team of “lacking the will to form a government.”He charged that Mikati has met the demands of all parties, movements and political blocs, except for the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) that was founded by Aoun and is now headed by his son-in-law MP Gebran Bassil. The FPM has been arguing that the caretaker government did not receive the new parliament’s vote of confidence, but rather the old one, therefore, rendering it “unconstitutional.”Commenting on the legality of his move to accept the resignation of the caretaker government in the absence of a replacement, Aoun remarked that the issue is not addressed in any constitutional texts, but it is simply related to political norms.
Norms, he said, can be violated.
Lawyer and former minister Rashid Derbas criticized Aoun’s warning, saying that the caretaker government had not even submitted its resignation for him to even consider approving or rejecting it. The government is considered resigned as soon as the new parliament is formed. The president has no power over this resignation, he added. Moreover, he said Aoun may deliberately create vacuum before leaving his post. Lebanon will be plunged in presidential and government vacuum on November 1. Derbas said the solution to the vacuum lies in the constitution and its grants the government the right to assume the duties of president in case of a vacuum. In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Derbas said the caretaker government has constitutional authority to replace the president, but there are some privileges that are solely reserved to the president even if the government is constitutional and enjoys the parliament’s support. Derbas said Mikati was not responsible for obstructing the formation of a new government and therefore, not responsible for leading the country to vacuum. Rather he pinned the blame on the FPM and its allies. He also blamed them for the presidential vacuum, saying they have been submitting blank votes during the elections.
Lebanon has held four rounds of presidential elections, none of which succeeded in electing a new head of state.Meanwhile, Bassil warned against the government assuming the role of the president. “We cannot have an unconstitutional and illegal government leading the country during vacuum,” he said after meeting with Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rai at Bkirki. “The idea of placing the country in the hands of a caretaker government is disastrous and will lead to constitutional and all forms of chaos,” he added. Moreover, he noted that Mikati would be signaling that he does not want to form a new government if he agrees for his caretaker cabinet to assume the duties of the president.

Lebanon's Aoun warns of crisis on eve of stepping down but hints at deal
The National/October,29/2022
Country faces the prospect of no president and no cabinet if MPs cannot agree a new head of state by Monday. Lebanon could be sliding into “constitutional chaos” with no one lined up to take over the presidency and no formal Cabinet leading government, outgoing president Michel Aoun told Reuters on Saturday. An 11th-hour political deal may yet prevent the crisis, Mr Aoun said, but added that there “is no final decision” on what that could involve. Mr Aoun is planning to vacate Baabda Palace on Saturday, the day before the end of his six-year term. MPs have failed four times now to elect his successor, either casting mostly blank ballots or failing to show up to the session meaning it ends with no quorum. Lebanon has faced prolonged political vacuums before — indeed Mr Aoun’s own election ended a 29-month gap and 45 Parliament sessions to gather a quorum. However, it faces the unprecedented prospect of neither having a president nor a Cabinet. Mr Aoun's presidency is inextricably linked in the minds of many Lebanese to their country's worst days since the 1975-1990 civil war, with the financial crisis that began in 2019 and the deadly Beirut port blast of 2020. His son-in-law Gebran Bassil, who was put on a sanctions list by the United States in 2020 for alleged corruption, which he denies, is seen as having presidential ambitions but told The National this week that he wasn’t standing. Mr Aoun said on Saturday that the sanctions would not stop Mr Bassil from eventually being a presidential candidate. “Once he's elected [as president], the sanctions will go away,” Mr Aoun said, without elaborating. In his final week as president, Mr Aoun signed a US-brokered deal delineating Lebanon's southern maritime border with Israel — a historic diplomatic breakthrough that would allow both countries to extract natural gas from maritime deposits. He said the powerful Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah, which sent unarmed drones over Israel and threatened to attack its offshore rigs multiple times, had served as a “deterrent” that had helped keep the negotiations going in Lebanon's favour.
“It wasn't co-ordinated [with the government]. It was an initiative taken by Hezbollah and it was useful,” Mr Aoun said. He said the deal paved the way for gas discoveries that could be Lebanon's “last chance” at recovering from a three-year financial meltdown that has cost the currency 95 per cent of its value and pushed 80 per cent of the population into poverty.

Aoun to leave Lebanon presidential palace in style as term ends
Najia Houssari/Arab News/October 29/2022
Aoun warned of constitutional chaos after his departure under a caretaker government with incomplete powers
BEIRUT: Hundreds of supporters of Lebanese President Michel Aoun on Saturday set up tents around the presidential palace and settled in for an overnight stay as they prepared to give the controversial leader a colorful send-off.
A convoy is expected to accompany Aoun as he leaves for his home in Rabieh on Sunday, the penultimate day of his six-year term, which ends on Oct. 31. The Free Patriotic Movement, the party founded by Aoun in 2005, set up dozens of tents in woods surrounding the presidential palace so supporters could camp out and farewell their leader in style. The FPM decided to make Aoun’s departure a colorful affair despite controversies accompanying the end of his term and parliament’s failure to elect a successor during the two-month constitutional deadline.
Aoun took office six years ago after a presidential vacuum lasting more than two years, and will leave his post on Monday without handing over the position to a successor.
In both cases, the vacuum resulted from Aoun’s insistence, firstly, on becoming president and then leaving the position to a member of his entourage.
In one of his farewell interviews, Aoun told Reuters that US sanctions would not stop his son-in-law and FPM head Gebran Bassil from becoming a presidential candidate.
“Once he’s elected as president, the sanctions will go away,” Aoun said. The US sanctioned Bassil, a Hezbollah ally, over corruption in November 2020.
Aoun warned of constitutional chaos after his departure under a caretaker government with incomplete powers, saying: “Hezbollah’s role was useful as a deterrent in the indirect negotiations to demarcate the maritime border with Israel.”
Presidential spokesman Rafic Chlala said: “The official ceremonies for Aoun’s departure from the presidential palace begin at 11 a.m. on Sunday, while the popular celebrations will begin at 11:30.”
The FPM is organizing the celebrations under the slogan “We’ll stay with you,” as Bassil called on his supporters and friends to accompany Aoun “proudly.”
The decree accepting the resignation of the caretaker government has reportedly been completed and Aoun is expected to sign it on Monday, the final day of his term, to prevent any disturbances to celebrations on Sunday.
Aoun and his political team have refused to let the government of caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati take over the administration on the grounds it has “lost legitimacy since it resigned after the parliamentary elections in May.”
Mikati was designated to form a new government, but has failed to do so and remains at the head of a caretaker government. Bassil on Saturday accused Mikati and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri of making plans for the post-Aoun era to auction off the remaining powers of the president.
“We are ready to resist this and prevent them from taking the president’s powers away. This is a warning,” he said. A source close to Mikati said that issuing a decree accepting the government’s resignation is pointless, as it does not change anything in reality.
Mikati has repeatedly said that he will not be confrontational or provocative, and will follow the constitution, the source added.
The Lebanese Forces party, bitter rivals of the Free Patriotic Movement, will not joins Sunday’s celebrations.
Charles Jabbour, head of the party’s communication and media team, told Arab News: “The party leader, Samir Geagea, issued an internal memorandum asking partisans to avoid any celebration that might be organized in their villages or regions, on the occasion of Aoun’s departure from the presidential palace, because it is a day of deep sadness due to the situation in the country, and fear that the other party may take advantage of this occasion to engage in provocations.”Jabbour added: “The threat to sign a decree accepting the resignation of the government does not change reality. Rather, it is a last-minute blackmail attempt to form a government of his liking, otherwise, the ministers of Aoun’s team will boycott the government. Certainly, such practices will introduce new unnecessary complications to the country. The most important thing is the security stability in the country because it is all we have left now.”
Sami Gemayel, leader of the Lebanese Kataeb Party, urged his supporters “to avoid offensive speech and provocations on Sunday, out of respect for the presidency and Aoun’s person.”

President Aoun: We will not let the caretaker government run the country...We failed to achieve reform because corruption was stronger, but we shall...
NAN /October,29/2022 
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, confirmed, in a chat with Al-Jarida website, that "he has not yet decided on signing a decree accepting the government's resignation," considering that "issuing the decree restricts the caretaker government more and prevents it from operating."
He stressed that "the aim of signing the decree is to compel the Parliament to elect a President of the Republic," adding, "It is not possible to leave the caretaker government to run the country in a vacuum, neither can it be left to parliament under the current structure."
Meanwhile, President Aoun outlined the most prominent achievements made during his mandate, including the signing of oil decrees in 2013, the liberation of Arsal's outskirts from terrorism and dismantling of dormant cells in Akkar, the adoption of the election law, forensic audit, and financial regulation. He also referred to the parties that sought to thwart his mandate, noting that "the judicial authority is responsible for obstructing the course of judicial files, whereby 22 judicial files were sent to the judiciary, none of which has been decided upon." "The Financial Prosecutor also charged the Governor of the Banque du Liban, Riad Salameh, with corruption cases, and arrest warrants were issued against him but were not implemented," he said.
"I sent 122 laws to Parliament, but only 45 were passed, and the rest remained in the drawers," Aoun went on. "As for the executive authority, it obstructed many projects and decisions and did not cooperate during my reign," he said.
At the economic and financial level, the President said: "We contracted with McKinsey to develop a reform plan, and it was thwarted...We then developed an economic plan and gathered experts from various political forces to achieve a comprehensive economic plan, but it was not implemented.”
He continued to note that “the forensic audit of the accounts of the Banque du Liban was supposed to end on September 27, but the audit company was flooded with a large amount of documents and did not reach a final result."
President Aoun reiterated that he was not able to achieve the aspired reform during his mandate because of the widespread corruption in the country, but pledged to continue his battle from Rabieh. "We failed to achieve reform because corruption was stronger, but I shall continue from Rabieh," he said, adding, "I leave the presidential palace without friends, but let history judge my manadate."

Mikati: We are approaching a new stage in which we will challenge no one
NAN /October,29/2022 
Prime Minister Najib Mikati affirmed that "we are entering a new phase during which we will not challenge anyone, and we will not stand against anything that serves Lebanon and its people."Speaking during a visit to the new "Aquafina" factory in the Barouk area this morning, he said: "In front of these majestic cedars around us, I say that nothing will make us despair, but rather we will rise again...This achievement is an act of faith in Lebanon and in industry and investment...Politics is not only about stances and actions, but in essence it is also about providing good opportunities for production."
Mikati added that there are three main sectors in this field, namely industry, agriculture and tourism, which require no funds from the state but rather a good environment for investment and work.
"This is the political environment required to embrace the investor and encourage him to work," he said.
The PM thus called for ceasing all quarrels and disputes for the sake of the people and the sectors of production, allowing for a good atmosphere for investment in the country.
"We are waiting in the coming period for a promising winter season, and one of the Arab ambassadors informed me yesterday that there are full reservations for fifteen days to travel to Lebanon during Christmas and New Year, at a rate of four or five planes per day," he said.
"Let us rise above all quarrels, and let hands join away from narrow accounts, factions and fanaticism, and let us cooperate to address the difficult situation and ensure Lebanon's recovery," underlined Mikati.

Statement by EU Spokesperson on signing maritime boundary agreement
NNA/October,29/2022  
The following is a statement by EU spokesperson, Nabila Massrali, on the signing of the agreement on the maritime boundary between Lebanon and Israel: “The European Union warmly welcomes the signing of the agreement on the delineation of the maritime boundary between Lebanon and Israel. The EU congratulates Israel and Lebanon on this landmark achievement and commends the role of the US in facilitating negotiations. This historic agreement will contribute to the stability and prosperity of the two neighbours as well as to that of the wider region. The EU encourages the parties to continue their constructive engagement. The EU stands ready to continue developing its partnerships with both Israel and Lebanon and supporting efforts towards regional cooperation for the benefit of all.”

Rifi says he will not partake in any dialogue table over electing a president
NNA/October,29/2022 
Head of the “Renewal Bloc", MP Ashraf Rifi, said that he will not participate in any dialogue table on the election of a president. “The vote is secret, although we say who we will vote for publicly, but no one can sit at a table and ask us for a name or agree on a specific name....Hezbollah agrees on something and turns against it," he said. Speaking in an interview with "Radio Free Lebanon" this morning, Rifi stressed that "the decision not to partake in the dialogue table is personal, not the decision of the Renewal Bloc," and asked: "How will Tripoli be represented, being the main capital of the Sunnis?""We can buy time with successive election sessions," Rifi said. He concluded: "We continue to nominate Michel Moawad, because he is a constitutional reformist and rescuer and has a personality capable of salvation."

Ghassan Skaf: How can we agree on border demarcation & not maintain democratic channels to agree on a President?
NNA/October,29/2022 
Independent MP Ghassan Skaf said today, "We worked during the constitutional deadline to avoid presidential vacuum...and we seek to renew consultations publicly," adding, "We can produce a president soon.""How can we agree on the demarcation of the border with Israel and not keep the democratic channels to agree on the name of a President?" Skaf wondered. He added in a radio interview, "We want to see what the dialogue table will look like," welcoming the idea of an ongoing parliament session until reaching a positive outcome. Skaf went on to consider that "Bkirki has a key role in electing a president," noting that he visited Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Beshara Boutros Al-Rahi, yesterday to elicit his opinion on the situation "because the presidential vacuum will be followed by an institutional vacuum."Skaf believed that "getting out of the void requires many contacts, and perhaps a table of dialogue and consultations." He indicated that there are points of convergence with the change deputies, hoping that a serious name will be presented which can only be through deliberations.

Launching of new airline route between Beirut & Abu Dhabi
NNA/October,29/2022  
"Air Arabia" and "Saad Travel" celebrated the opening of a new flight route between Beirut and Abu Dhabi, in a reception attended by Caretaker Minister of Tourism Walid Nassar, Head of Syndicate of Travel and Tourism Jean Abboud, Head of Syndicate of Hotel Owners Pierre Al-Ashkar, Beirut Airport Vice President Tony Ghostine and Head of Air Transport Authority Karl Rizk, as well as Air Arabia's Commercial Director in Lebanon Maguy Morani, and officials from the Air Arabia Company in Lebanon and Abu Dhabi, alongside representatives of the General Directorate of Civil Aviation in Lebanon, and owners of travel and tourism agencies. "Saad Travel" Company Head, Ghassan Saad, gave a brief address in which he praised Minister Nassar's efforts to promote tourism in Lebanon, pointing out that "the occasion is to celebrate the 19th anniversary of the establishment of Air Arabia and five years of cooperation with Saad Transport, in addition to announcing the opening of a direct line between the capital, Yerevan and Beirut, on December 9." In turn, "Air Arabia" Director General in Abu Dhabi, Jamal Abdel Nasser Al-Masry, gave a speech in which he hailed the cooperation with a well-established Lebanese company, namely Saad Company, wishing it continuous success and progress. He pointed out that "Beirut is a very lively market, and the line between Beirut and Abu Dhabi is a must," commending the "constructive and continuous cooperation between the Emirati and Lebanese Civil Aviation Directorates."

Report: LF tells al-Rahi its real candidate is army chief
Naharnet/October,29/2022 
A Lebanese Forces delegation has met with Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi and informed him that its "real" presidential candidate is Army chief General Joseph Aoun, al-Akhbar newspaper reported Saturday. "He is the only one capable to confront Hezbollah and he has encouraging experiences in this regard," the LF delegation told al-Rahi, according to the daily.

Aoun says govt. formation seems to be 'impossible'
Naharnet/October,29/2022
President Michel Aoun announced Saturday that the formation of a new government before the end of his presidential term “seems to be impossible.”“I don’t know the intentions of others, but the matter seems to be impossible,” Aoun said in an interview with al-Mayadeen TV. He added: “The constitution does not prevent the issuance of a decree accepting the resignation of Mikati’s government’s and it is still possible to issue it.”Al-Jadeed TV later reported that Aoun intends to issue the decree on Monday, which is the last day in his term, to “prevent any reactions from disrupting the popular celebrations that will accompany Aoun's return to Rabieh on Sunday.”In his remarks to al-Maydeen, Aoun regretted that “the judiciary did not perform its role in pursuing the corrupts” during his tenure.

Bassil issues warning over powers, says ready for 'resistance'
Naharnet/October,29/2022
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil on Saturday issued a stark warning over what he called an attempt to usurp the president's powers. "The 'Judasists' sold the president's powers through the Taif Accord and until today they have refrained from implementing the best of what's in it," Bassil said in a tweet, as tensions surge over President Michel Aoun's looming exit from Baabda amid the presence of a caretaker cabinet. "After October 31, they are preparing to sell what's left of powers to (caretaker PM and PM-designate) Najib Mikati and (Speaker) Nabih Berri. We have struggled for 15 years and we recovered the rights to preserve Lebanon, and we are ready for resistance to prevent them from stealing them," Bassil added. "We have informed and warned," he concluded.

Bassil calls on Mikati to quit, Hezbollah to boycott govt. meetings
Naharnet/October,29/2022 
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil has called on caretaker PM and PM-designate Najib Mikati to "step down so that the president can call for immediate parliamentary consultations that lead to designating someone else" to form a new government. In remarks to al-Akhbar newspaper published Saturday, Bassil said that when presidential vacuum begins, Mikati's caretaker cabinet will "lack legitimacy, conformity to the (National) Pact and Christian and parliamentary confidence.""It will be boycotted by most of its ministers," Bassil added. Hezbollah meanwhile told Mikati that its two ministers "will not take part in any cabinet session that he would call for during presidential vacuum, in soldiarity with the ministers of the president and the FPM," al-Akhbar said. The ministers loyal to the president, the FPM, the Tashnag Party and ex-MP Talal Arslan meanwhile held a meeting Friday and agreed to boycott any cabinet session.

Lebanon Announces 3 New Cholera Cases, One Death
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 29 October, 2022
The Lebanese Ministry of Health announced on Saturday that it has registered three new cholera cases in the past 24 hours, taking the tally to 371. It confirmed a new death from the infection, raising the toll to 16. It released an infographic showing where the most infections have been reported. Lebanon confirmed its first cholera infection since 1993 last month. The disease had already spread in neighboring Syria. The first case in Lebanon was a middle-aged Syrian refugee man living in the impoverished northern province of Akkar. The developments take place as Lebanon's economy continues to spiral, plunging three-quarters of its population into poverty. Rampant power cuts, water shortages, and skyrocketing inflation have deteriorated living conditions for millions. According to the WHO, a cholera infection is caused by consuming food or water infected with the Vibrio cholerae bacteria, and while most cases are mild to moderate, not treating the illness could lead to death. About 1 million Syrian refugees who fled their country’s war reside in Lebanon. Most live in extreme poverty in tented settlements or in overcrowded apartments. Poverty has also deepened for many Lebanese, with many families often rationing water, unable to afford private water tanks for drinking and domestic use.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 29-30.2022
Iran shrine attack mourners chant against Mahsa Amini ‘riots’
AFP/October 29, 2022
TEHRAN: Mourners gathered Saturday in the southern Iranian city of Shiraz to bury the victims of a deadly assault on a shrine, while chanting slogans against nationwide “riots” over Mahsa Amini’s death. At least 15 people were killed Wednesday in a key Shiite Muslim shrine in the city, according to official media, in an attack claimed by the Daesh group. The shooting at the Shah Cheragh mausoleum came on the same day that thousands of people across Iran paid tribute to Amini, 40 days after her death in police custody. Amini, 22, died on September 16, three days after her arrest by the morality police in Tehran for allegedly breaching the country’s Islamic dress code for women. Remarks made Thursday by Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi appeared to link the Shiraz attack, one of the country’s deadliest in years, with the protests and “riots” following Amini’s death. “The intention of the enemy is to disrupt the country’s progress, and then these riots pave the ground for terrorist acts,” he said in televised remarks. During Saturday’s funeral processions in Iran, the crowd also chanted slogans condemning the United States, Israel and Britain for allegedly being “behind the riots,” according to live footage broadcast on state television.

Iran’s Guards Head Tells Protesters: ‘Today Is Last Day of Riots’
Asharq Al-Awsat/October, 29/2022
The commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, Hossein Salami, warned protesters that Saturday would be their last day of taking to the streets. "Do not come to the streets! Today is the last day of the riots," he said. Iran has been gripped by protests since the death of 22-year-old Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini in the custody of the morality police last month. They have turned into a popular revolt by furious Iranians from all layers of society, posing one of the boldest challenges to the clerical leadership since the 1979 revolution. Rights groups have said at least 250 protesters have been killed and thousands arrested across Iran. On Friday, video footage on social media showed protesters calling for the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Basij militia, which has played a major role in the crackdown on demonstrators.

Iran Is an Ever More ‘Relevant’ Problem, Nuclear Watchdog Chief Says
Asharq Al-Awsat/October, 29/2022
Iran is a problem that is ever more "relevant", the UN nuclear watchdog's chief, Rafael Grossi, said on Friday, in an apparent reference to the growing number of advanced centrifuges Tehran is using to enrich uranium. The International Atomic Energy Agency has said in recent confidential reports to member states seen by Reuters that Iran has been installing and enriching with more cascades, or clusters, of advanced centrifuges at its underground enrichment plants at Natanz and Fordow. At the same time, indirect talks with the United States on reviving a largely hollowed-out 2015 nuclear deal with Iran are stalled, with officials saying one important sticking point has been Iran's demand that the IAEA end an investigation into uranium traces found at undeclared sites. Asked in an on-stage discussion in Washington how he sees the world today, Grossi started with Iran rather than Ukraine and said it "continues to be a problem".
"I see every day through my inspectors how this problem is getting more and more relevant, and I'm choosing a word which is neutral. It's an even more relevant problem every day," Grossi told the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference, without elaborating. He added later that he would not cave to political pressure over his investigation of the uranium traces and his efforts to obtain explanations from Iran on how they came to be there. "I will never do anything in the verification area under political pretenses or for political reasons. The IAEA has to do what it has to do. I say it here publicly and I've said it to my Iranian counterparts many times when they request that we look elsewhere."

Activist Masih Alinejad speaks on Iran protests, and why women are behind the revolution
Arab News/October 29, 2022
DUBAI: Iranian-American journalist and activist Masih Alinejad denounced in a recent interview the credibility of investigations said to be carried by the Iranian president into the death of a young woman that sparked protests.  Alinejad said it was “unacceptable” for Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to order a special investigation into the death of Mahsa Amini when he was the one responsible.  “To be honest, when you say that Ebrahim Raisi wants to do an investigation it hurts, because he is the butcher,” Alinejad said during an interview with Al Arabiya TV presenter Talal Al-Haj at the United Nations headquarters in New York. “He is the one who ordered the massacre, the mass executions of more than 5,000 prisoners, so how come he wants to investigate? I mean this is not acceptable from Iranians.” “Iranian people know that killing and torturing is in the DNA of the Islamic Republic, and this is why people want an end to it,” she added. A wave of nationwide protests, led mostly by women, was triggered in September following Amini’s death in police custody for revealing some of her hair while donning the Islamic headscarf.  As the protests took over, many women have been taking off their headcovers and burning them in a show of defiance to the state.  However, this was just a symbol of the freedom the Iranian people are demanding and it was not surprising that Iranians were fighting for this now, Alinejad said. “Let me be very clear with you, I knew the anger and I knew that compulsory hijab is not just a small piece of cloth. I knew that finally women will take to streets and say no to a bunch of mullahs telling them what to wear in the 21st century.”Alinejad said the brutal death of Amini touched many Iranians because they were able to relate to her story. “She was an innocent girl, she was not part of any demonstration, she was not even unveiled, that created a huge anger because a lot of people relate to her story.”In the interview, Alinejad also responded to accusations that she incited women of Iran to protest while she lives abroad in the west. She said that it was her role to give a voice to the women who were “the leaders of change within the society.” She added it would be “a betrayal” if she did not voice her support to them.

Gunman Who Attacked Shrine in Iran Dies from Injuries
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 29 October, 2022
The gunman who killed 15 people at a major Shiite holy site in southern Iran earlier this week died on Saturday, Iranian media reported. The attack was claimed by the militant ISIS group but Iran's government has sought to blame it on the protests roiling the country. Iranian authorities have not disclosed details about the assailant, who died in a hospital in the southern city of Shiraz on Saturday from injuries sustained during his arrest, according to Iran's semiofficial Fars and Tasnim news agencies. The funeral for the victims would be held later on Saturday, officials said. It is unusual that authorities have not elaborated on the gunman's nationality or provided any details about him following Wednesday's deadly attack at Shah Cheragh in Shiraz, the second-holiest Shiite shrine in Iran. The attack came as unrest — sparked by the Sept. 16 death of Mahsa Amini in the custody of the country's morality police — have rocked the country. The protests first focused on the state-mandated hijab, or headscarf, for women but quickly grew into calls for the downfall of Iran's theocracy itself. At least 270 people have been killed and 14,000 have been arrested in the protests that have swept over 125 Iranian cities, according to the group Human Rights Activists in Iran. Iranian officials have blamed protesters for paving the way for the assault on the shrine in Shiraz, but there is no evidence linking extremist groups to the widespread, largely peaceful demonstrations engulfing the country. Security forces have violently cracked down on demonstrations with live ammunition, anti-riot pellets and tear gas. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack on the shrine — its first such claim in Iran in four years. Iran’s religious sites have previously been targeted by ISIS and other extremists. The Iranian government has repeatedly alleged that foreign powers have orchestrated the protests, without providing evidence. The protests have become one of the most serious threats to Iran's ruling clerics since the 1979 revolution.

US Sanctions Iranian Group that Put Bounty on Rushdie’s Life
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 October, 2022
The US is imposing financial penalties on an Iranian-based organization that raised money to target British-American author Salman Rushdie, who was violently attacked in August at a literary event. The Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned the 15 Khordad Foundation, which issued a multimillion-dollar bounty for the killing of Rushdie. He wrote “The Satanic Verses,” which some Muslims consider blasphemous. Rushdie’s agent says the author has lost sight in one eye and the use of a hand as he recovers from an attack by a man who rushed the stage at the event in western New York. “The United States will not waver in its determination to stand up to threats posed by Iranian authorities against the universal rights of freedom of expression, freedom of religion or belief, and freedom of the press,” said Brian Nelson, Treasury’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence. “This act of violence, which has been praised by the Iranian regime, is appalling. We all hope for Salman Rushdie’s speedy recovery following the attack on his life.”

Russian Forces Repel Drone Attack on Crimea
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 29 October, 2022
Russian naval forces repelled a drone attack in the Bay of Sevastopol, where the Black Sea Fleet in headquartered, on the annexed Crimean peninsular, the Russian-installed leader of the area said on Saturday. "Ships of the Black Sea Fleet repelled a drone attack in the waters of the Sevastopol Bay," the governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhaev, said on Telegram. "Nothing has been hit in the city. We remain calm. The situation is under control." Local officials said ferries and boats had temporarily stopped crossing the Bay of Sevastopol. Sevastopol is the largest city in Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014, said Reuters. Crimea was annexed into the Russian empire in the 18th century and was later a part of Russia within the Soviet Union until 1954, when it was handed to the Soviet Republic of Ukraine by Nikita Khrushchev.

Russia Says UK Navy Personnel Blew up Nord Stream Gas Pipelines
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 29 October, 2022
Russia's defense ministry on Saturday said that British navy personnel blew up the Nord Stream gas pipelines last month, directly accusing a leading NATO member of sabotaging critical Russian infrastructure. The defense ministry did not give evidence for its claim. "According to available information, representatives of this unit of the British Navy took part in the planning, provision and implementation of a terrorist attack in the Baltic Sea on September 26 this year - blowing up the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines," the ministry said. Britain's defense ministry declined immediate comment. Russia has previously blamed the West for the explosions last month that ruptured the Russian-built Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines on the bed of the Baltic Sea. But Russia has never before given specific details of who was responsible for the damage to the pipelines, previously the largest routes for Russian gas supplies to Europe. The Kremlin has repeatedly said allegations of Russian responsibility for the damage were "stupid" and Russian officials have said Washington had a motive as it wants to sell more liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe. The United States has denied involvement.

Afghan commandos that were trained by US Navy SEALs are being recruited to fight for Russia in Ukraine, report says
Alia Shoaib/Business Insider/October 29, 2022
Afghan commandos that were trained by the US are being recruited to fight for Russia in Ukraine, according to a report from Foreign Policy. Members of Afghanistan's elite National Army Commando Corps were left behind by the United States when the Taliban took control of the country in August 2021.
Now, commandos say they are being contacted on WhatsApp and Signal with offers to fight for Russia, according to the outlet. The messages, seen by Foreign Policy, say: "Anyone who would like to go to Russia with better treatment and good resources: please send me your name, father's name, and your military rank." Military and security officials in Afghanistan told the outlet that they fear up to 10,000 commandos could be tempted by such an offer, as many of them were left jobless and fearful for their life as they became targets for the Taliban.
"They have no country, no jobs, no future. They have nothing to lose," one military source told the outlet. One former Afghan commando officer told Foreign Policy that he believed the shadowy Wagner Group was behind the recruitment drive. "I am telling you [the recruiters] are Wagner Group. They are gathering people from all over. The only entity that recruits foreign troops [for Russia] are Wagner Group, not their army. It's not an assumption; it's a known fact," he said. Earlier this year a video emerged of the group's suspected founder Yevgeny Prigozhin, a close Putin ally, recruiting prisoners from Russian jails to fight in Ukraine in exchange for shortened sentences. Thousands of the Afghan commandos fled to neighboring countries following the Taliban takeover last year, and many are now losing hope in the possibility that they could be settled in Western countries. Many are still in hiding in Afghanistan.
Afghan media reported that soldiers were being offered Russian citizenship in exchange for fighting in Ukraine. One former Afghan commando captain, 35, told Foreign Policy that he had helped connect colleagues with a recruitment office in Tehran, and those who took up the offer were flown to Russia via Iran. "When they accept Russia's offer, the commando personnels' phones are turned off. They proceed very secretly," the commando, who is himself hiding in Afghanistan, said. He said that he turned down the offer because he views Russia as Afghanistan's enemy after the Soviet Union sparked a nine-year war by invading Afghanistan in 1979, but that others might have taken it up out of desperation. "We are very disappointed. For 18 years, shoulder to shoulder, we performed dangerous tasks with American, British, and Norwegian consultants. Now, I am in hiding. I am suffering every second," he told the outlet.
The Afghan Elite National Army Commando Corps, made up of 20,000 to 30,000 volunteers, was partly trained by US Navy SEALs and the British Special Air Service, per Foreign Policy.
While, in general, the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces were seen as incompetent, the commandos were well respected. A former senior Afghan security official, speaking anonymously to Foreign Policy, said that the Afghan fighters "would be a game-changer" in the war.

Russian Black Sea fleet repells alleged Ukrainian drone attack
Michael Fitzpatrick/RFIRFI/October 29, 2022
The Russian army accused Ukraine of a "massive" drone attack on its Black Sea Fleet in Crimea on Saturday, claiming the UK helped in the strike that damaged a vessel. Sevastopol in Moscow-annexed Crimea, which has been targeted several times in recent months, serves as the headquarters for the fleet and is a logistical hub for operations in Ukraine. The Russian army claimed to have "destroyed" nine aerial drones and seven maritime ones, in the Saturday morning attack on the port. Moscow's forces alleged British "specialists", whom they said were based in the southern Ukrainian city of Ochakiv, had helped prepare and train Kyiv to carry out the strike. In a further singling out of the UK -- which Moscow sees as one of the most unfriendly Western countries -- Moscow said the same British unit was involved in the explosions which damlaged the Nord Stream gas pipeline last month. Moscow's military said ships targeted at their Crimean base were involved in a UN-brokered deal to allow the export of Ukrainian grain. The UK defence ministry on Saturday rejected claims by Russia that its specialists were involved in either series of attacks. The defence ministry tweeted: "To detract from their disastrous handling of the illegal invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Ministry of Defence is resorting to peddling false claims on an epic scale."
Crimea a crucible of conflict
Attacks on Crimea, annexed by Moscow in 2014, have increased in recent weeks, as Kyiv presses forward with a counter-offensive in the south to retake territory held by Moscow for months. Moscow-installed authorities in Kherson, just north of Crimea, have vowed to turn the city into a fortress, preparing for an inevitable assault.

Blackouts worsen in Ukraine; fighting rages on many fronts
Associated Press/Saturday, 29 October, 2022
Relentless Russian attacks on energy infrastructure have prompted Ukrainian authorities to announce worsening blackouts around the country's largest cities, with Kyiv's mayor warning that the capital's power grid is working in "emergency mode" with energy supplies down as much as 50% from pre-war levels. Meanwhile, the Russian president sought to dispel criticism of a chaotic call-up of 300,000 reservists for service in Ukraine by ordering his defense minister to make sure they're properly trained and equipped for battle.
In the Kyiv region, as winter looms, the latest damage to utilities will mean outages of four or more hours a day, according to Ukrenergo, the state operator of Ukraine's high-voltage transmission lines.
But Kyiv regional Gov. Oleksiy Kuleba warned "more severe and longer shutdowns will be applied in the coming days."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said power outages were affecting about 4 million people across the country. He said last week that 30% of Ukraine's power stations had been destroyed since Russia launched the first wave of targeted infrastructure strikes on Oct. 10. In Kyiv, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said the power grid was operating in "emergency mode," adding that he hoped Ukrenergo would find ways to address the shortage "in two to three weeks."
The former boxing world champion also said new air defense equipment has been deployed in Kyiv to help defend itself against Russian drone and missile attacks on energy facilities.
In the Kharkiv region, home to Ukraine's second-largest city of the same name, Gov. Oleg Syniehubov said daily one-hour power outages would begin Monday.
Officials across the war-torn country have urged people to conserve by reducing electricity consumption during peak hours and avoiding the use of high-voltage appliances.
In Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin told Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu that the thousands of reservists who were recently called up need the right training and equipment so "people feel confident when they need to go to combat."
Shoigu told Putin that 82,000 reservists had been deployed to Ukraine, while 218,000 others were still being trained. He said there were no immediate plans to round up more, but Putin's mobilization order left the door open for a future military call-up.
Putin's effort to beef up the number of troops along the 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line followed recent setbacks, including a Russian withdrawal from the Kharkiv region. The mobilization, however, fueled scores of protests in Russia and prompted hundreds of thousands of men to flee the country.
Activists and reports by Russian media and The Associated Press said many of the draftees were inexperienced, were told to procure basic items such as medical kits and flak jackets themselves, and did not receive training before they were sent off to fight. Some were killed within days of being called up.
Shoigu acknowledged that "problems with supplies existed in the initial stages," but told Putin those have now been solved. Putin ordered Shoigu to propose ways to reform the ground troops and other parts of the military based on their performance in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Russian missile and artillery barrages pounded targets across Ukraine. Several towns across the Dnieper River from the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant were struck, the presidential office said. Shelling damaged dozens of residential buildings in Nikopol, and power was cut there and to thousands of families in neighboring towns.
A Russian S-300 air defense missile destroyed a three-story office building and damaged a new residential building nearby, said Mykolaiv regional governor Vitalii Kim. Russian forces have frequently used converted S-300 missiles to strike ground targets in Ukraine. Moscow also pressed its ground advance on the cities of Bakhmut and Avdiikva after a string of setbacks in the east. The fighting has turned the entire Donetsk region into "a zone of active hostilities," according to Gov. Pavlo Kyrylenko.
"Civilians who remain in the region live in constant fear without heating and electricity," Kyrylenko said in televised remarks. "Their enemy is not only Russian cannons but also the cold."
A Russian takeover of Bakhmut, which has remained in Ukrainian hands throughout the war, would open the way for the Kremlin to push on to other Ukrainian strongholds in the heavily contested Donetsk region. A reinvigorated eastern offensive could also potentially stall or derail Ukraine's push to recapture the southern city of Kherson, a gateway to Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014. Last month, Putin illegally annexed annexed the Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Luhansk Gov. Serhiy Haidai reported Friday that Russian soldiers had retreated from some areas; Moscow had claimed Luhansk's complete capture in July. "The Russians practically destroyed some villages after they started to retreat," Haidai said. "There are a lot of freshly mobilized Russians in the Luhansk region, but they are dying in droves." His claim could not be independently verified.
In the Zaporizhzhia region, Kremlin-appointed officials urged residents not to switch to daylight savings time along with Kyiv and the rest of the country. "We live in the Russian Federation, and our city lives by Moscow time," said Alexander Volga, the Russian-installed mayor of Enerhodar, where Europe's largest nuclear power plant is located. Russian-backed authorities in Kherson have urged civilians to evacuate ahead of an expected Ukrainian offensive. Zelenskyy accused the Russians on Friday of dismantling health-care facilities in Kherson and turning the city into an area "without civilization." Some people fleeing Kherson have gone to Russia-occupied Crimea. At a checkpoint at the city of Dzhankoi, volunteers set up a small tent city for the refugees. They said 50 to 300 pass through each day. "People come out to us after going through the checkpoint confused. Many do not know where to go next, how to go, which route to take," volunteer Natalya Poltaratskaya told an Associated Press journalist, adding that the volunteers help them with food, water and route advice. In Dzhankoi, a temporary camp has been set up in a boarding house for those who left Kherson. About 200 people live there, regional officials said. People in Kherson were not given the choice of fleeing to areas held by Ukraine.

Putin to host leaders of adversaries Armenia and Azerbaijan
Associated Press/Saturday, 29 October, 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin will host the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan to help broker a settlement to a longstanding conflict between the two ex-Soviet neighbors, the Kremlin said Friday.
The negotiations reflect an attempt by the Kremlin to shore up its influence in the region amid increasingly active U.S. mediation efforts. Putin's talks with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev were scheduled to be held at the Russian leader's Black Sea residence in Sochi on Monday. The Kremlin said the leaders would discuss the implementation of a 2020 peace deal brokered by Russia and "further steps to enhance stability and security in the Caucasus," adding that "the issues related to the restoration and development of trade and economic and transport links will also be discussed."Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in a decades-old conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, which is part of Azerbaijan but has been under the control of ethnic Armenian forces backed by Armenia since a separatist war there ended in 1994.
During a six-week war in 2020, Azerbaijan reclaimed broad swaths of Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent territories which were held by Armenian forces for decades. More than 6,700 people died in the fighting, which ended with a Russian-brokered peace agreement. Moscow deployed about 2,000 troops to the region to serve as peacekeepers. A new round of hostilities erupted in September, when more than 200 troops were killed on both sides in two days of heavy fighting. Armenia and Azerbaijan traded blame for triggering the fighting.
Russia is Armenia's top ally and sponsor. It maintains a military base in the country but also has warm ties with Azerbaijan. The Kremlin has engaged in a delicate balancing act trying to maintain friendly relations with both countries. After the latest bout of fighting, some Armenian officials voiced dismay at Moscow's failure to take more decisive action to help Armenia, which is a member of a Russia-dominated security alliance of several ex-Soviet nations. Moscow, in turn, was irked by Yerevan's efforts to develop closer ties with Washington, which included a September's visit by a U.S. congressional delegation led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Speaking at a conference of foreign policy experts on Thursday, Putin vowed that Moscow would help protect Armenia's interests in any prospective deal. "We have no intention to enforce or dictate anything to Armenia," he said. The Moscow-brokered 2020 cease-fire envisaged efforts to secure transportation routes in the region. Efforts to negotiate specifics led to acrimonious disputes and helped trigger the latest fighting in September.
In an apparent reflection of tensions with the Armenia, Putin noted Thursday that the Kremlin had advised Pashinyan's government before the 2020 hostilities to agree to a compromise that would envisage Armenian forces giving up Azerbaijani lands outside Nagorno-Karabakh they seized in the early 1990s.
"We believed that it would have been a good step toward normalizing the situation in the region as a whole, but the Armenian leadership has taken a different path," Putin said. "It has led to the situation that we have today."During the 2020 fighting, Azerbaijan reclaimed not only those territories but also seized significant chunks of Nagorno-Karabakh proper. Putin maintained a prospective deal proposed by the U.S. would recognize Azerbaijan's sovereignty over the entire Nagorno-Karabakh region. "If Armenia shares this view, it's fine," Putin said. "We will support any choice made by the Armenian people."At the same time, he hinted that Russia could help Armenia negotiate a better deal that would allow Nagorno-Karabakh to retain a degree of autonomy. But he warned that Yerevan must be ready to make concessions. "If the Armenian people and the Armenian leadership believe that Nagorno-Karabakh has some special characteristics that need to be recognized and reflected in a future peace treaty, it's also possible," Putin said. "But undoubtedly it's necessary to hold negotiations to make a deal acceptable to Azerbaijan. It's a difficult, hard issue."

Man Arrested in Attack on US House Speaker Pelosi's Spouse Faces Charges
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 29 October, 2022
A man who clubbed US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's husband over the head with a hammer, shouting, "Where is Nancy?", faced charges of attempted murder and other felonies a day after the violent break-in at the couple's San Francisco home. Police initially declined to offer a motive for Friday's attack on Paul Pelosi, 82, who according to his wife's office underwent surgery for a skull fracture and injuries to his right arm and hands, though doctors expect a full recovery. But the assault stoked fears about political violence less than two weeks ahead of midterm elections on Nov. 8 that will decide control of the House of Representatives and Senate, coming amid the most vitriolic and polarized US political climate in decades. The 82-year-old House speaker herself, a Democrat who is second in the constitutional line of succession to the US presidency, was in Washington with her protective detail at the time of the assault.
She flew to San Francisco to be with her husband. Police identified the man arrested at the scene by officers who intervened in the attack as David Depape, 42. He, too, was taken to a San Francisco hospital. Online sheriff's records showed he was booked into custody on suspicion of attempted murder, assault with a deadly weapon, elder abuse, battery, burglary, and several other felonies. Formal charges were expected to be filed by the San Francisco district attorney's office. San Francisco Police Chief William Scott told a Friday night news briefing that police detectives, assisted by FBI agents, had yet to determine what precipitated the home invasion but said, "We know this was not a random act." A statement from Nancy Pelosi's spokesperson, Drew Hammill, said Pelosi's husband had been attacked "by an assailant who acted with force, and threatened his life while demanding to see the Speaker."
The intruder shouted, "Where is Nancy?" before attacking, according to a person briefed on the incident but who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity. In the search for a motive, attention turned to the suspect's apparent internet profile. In recent posts on several websites, an internet user named "daviddepape" expressed support for former President Donald Trump and embraced the cult-like conspiracy theory QAnon. The posts included references to anti-Semitic tropes and criticism of women and censorship by tech companies. Older messages promoted quartz crystals and hemp bracelets. Reuters could not confirm that the posts were created by the man arrested on Friday. Scott said the intruder forced his way into the Pelosis' three-story red brick townhouse through a rear door. Aerial photos showed shattered glass at the back of the house in the city's affluent Pacific Heights neighborhood. The chief said police were dispatched for an "A-priority wellbeing check" at about 2:30 a.m. on the basis of a somewhat cryptic emergency-911 call from the residence. Other news outlets reported the call was placed by Paul Pelosi. Scott credited the 911 operator with using her experience and intuition to "figure out that there was more to this incident than what she was being told" by the caller, so she dispatched the call at a higher priority than normal. Scott called her decision "life-saving." According to Scott, police arriving at the scene caught a glimpse through the front door of Depape and Pelosi struggling over a hammer. As the officers yelled at both men to drop the tool, Depape yanked the hammer away and was seen striking Pelosi at least once, the chief said. The officers then tackled, disarmed and arrested Depape and took both men to hospital, Scott said.
Season of extremism
The incident came a day after New York City police warned that extremists could target politicians, political events and polling sites ahead of the midterm elections. The US Capitol Police said they investigated 9,625 threats against lawmakers from both parties in 2021, nearly a threefold increase from 2017. As a Democratic leader in Washington and a longtime representative from one of America's most liberal cities, Nancy Pelosi is a frequent target of Republican criticism. Her office was ransacked during the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol by supporters of Republican then-President Trump, some of whom hunted for her during the assault. In January 2021, her home was vandalized with graffiti saying "Cancel rent" and "We want everything" painted on the house and a pig's head left in front of the garage, media reported. The home of Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell was also vandalized around that time. McConnell said he was "horrified and disgusted" by Friday's violence, and House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy said he reached out to Nancy Pelosi. But one of the most forceful reactions came from US Representative Adam Kinzinger, one of two Republicans on the House panel investigating the Jan. 6 attack, who condemned the rise of incendiary rhetoric vilifying political opponents and promoting falsehoods about voter fraud. "When you convince people that politicians are rigging elections, drink babies blood, etc, you will get violence. This must be rejected," he wrote on Twitter. Speaking at a campaign event in Pennsylvania, President Joe Biden told the crowd, "Enough is enough.""Every person of good conscience needs to clearly and unambiguously stand up against violence in our politics, regardless of what your politics are," Biden said.

Israeli Chief of Staff Orders Troops to ‘Restrain Settlers’
Tel Aviv- Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 29 October, 2022
The Israeli army’s Chief of Staff, Aviv Kohavi, ordered on Friday commanders of the military divisions to reduce the “rampant insecurity” committed by settlers in the West Bank. Although the Israeli army had participated in many of the settlers’ attacks against Palestinians, Kohavi specifically criticized settlers who unreasonably behaved against members of the Israeli army. Security sources in Tel Aviv said they fear things could head towards a dangerous level of escalation, particularly in Nablus and Jenin refugee camp, which are considered high-conflict areas in the current confrontations between settlers and Palestinians.
The sources warned that these areas could see out-of-control clashes if settlers continue to exercise aggression against Palestinians. They added that escalation could turn critical if Palestinians who are not involved in security activities feel forced to support their brothers in the face of the multiplying crimes committed by extremist settlers. Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper said the Israeli army’s chief of staff attended recently an important meeting to discuss these attacks, in the presence of regional commander Major General Yehuda Fox and others. They reached a conviction that the settlers’ attacks could not be tolerated anymore. The security chiefs ordered commanders of the military divisions currently operating in the West Bank to maintain order not only when it comes to combating Palestinian operations, but also to impose stricter measures to prevent settlers’ attacks. Several hundred settlers, including mayors and local leaders, held demonstrations against the army and its practices throughout the West Bank. The army also revealed on Friday that an off-duty Israeli settler soldier took advantage of his vacation to join the demonstrators in Mount Hebron, violently attacking and throwing stones at troops operating in the South Hebron Hills area. Defense Minister Benny Gantz said he “strongly condemns” the attack.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 29-30.2022
ماجد رفي زاده/ معهد جيتستون: ادارة الرئيس بايدن تقوي وقاحة وفجور محور الشر الجديد المكون من إيران وروسيا
Russia and Iran, New “Axis of Evil,” Emboldened by Biden Administration
Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/October 29, 2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/113061/majid-rafizadeh-gatestone-institute-russia-and-iran-new-axis-of-evil-emboldened-by-biden-administration-%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%ac%d8%af-%d8%b1%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%b2%d8%a7%d8%af%d9%87-%d9%85%d9%86-%d9%85/
Despite this escalation [Iran supplying suicide drones to Russia], the European Union would not admit that the Iranian regime was entrenched in the war on Ukraine: EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell wanted "proof"....
Iran's regime, apparently even more emboldened, then began sending troops to Crimea to assist Russia in its attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure and civilian population and to increase the effectiveness of the suicide drones.
"Ukraine currently doesn't have effective air defense systems against ballistic missiles," Ukraine Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat pleaded. "Iran will likely supply those (to Russia), unless the world finds a way to stop it".
There is still clearly a need in Ukraine to "close the sky," a request that Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi rejected.
So, as a result of the Biden administration, the new "Axis of Evil," Russia and Iran, are becoming more empowered and emboldened than ever. It is now time to abandon the "nuclear deal" with Iran permanently, "close the sky" over Ukraine, and quickly defeat Putin. At least it will show the other aggressors there is no way they can win.
Pictured: Firefighters in Kyiv, Ukraine try to put out a fire in a four-story residential building, in which three people were killed when it was hit by a "kamikaze drone" (many of which are supplied to Russian forces by Iran), on October 17, 2022.
Thanks to the Biden administration's leadership, or remarkable lack thereof, the ruling mullahs of Iran have become a key player in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Iranian regime and Russia are ratcheting up their military cooperation and adventurism.
On March 2, Iran abstained from the United Nations General Assembly Resolution ES-11/1 condemning Russia's invasion and demanding Moscow's withdrawal from Ukraine. Tehran then voted against UN General Assembly Resolution ES-11/3, which suspended Russia's membership in the UN Human Rights Council.
The Biden administration and the European Union, all the same, continued negotiating with the ruling mullahs to revive the toxic Iran "nuclear deal" and lift the sanctions in place against the Islamic Republic.
Russia and Iran, evidently further emboldened and empowered, then organized a visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to the Islamic Republic, where he received huge support for Moscow's invasion of Ukraine from the Iranian regime's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. After that visit, Iran's supplying of kamikaze drones to Russia became the first instance seen of military cooperation between Moscow and Tehran.
On September 23, the Ukrainian foreign ministry stripped Iran's ambassador in Kyiv of his accreditation and reduced the embassy's diplomatic staff there, according to the Ukrainian foreign ministry's press service. Despite this escalation, the European Union would not admit that the Iranian regime was entrenched in the war on Ukraine: EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell wanted "proof".
"We will look for concrete evidence about the participation [of Iran in the Ukraine war]", he told reporters as he arrived for a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg on October 17.
The EU ultimately acknowledged that the Iranian regime was indeed "provid[ing] military support for Russia's unprovoked and unjustified war of aggression against Ukraine" via "development and delivery of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles to Russia".
"These cowardly drone strikes," British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly noted in a statement, "are an act of desperation. By enabling these strikes, these individuals and a manufacturer have caused the people of Ukraine untold suffering."
Iran's regime, apparently even more emboldened, then began sending troops to Crimea to assist Russia in its attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure and civilian population and to increase the effectiveness of the suicide drones.
The White House actually admitted on October 20, 2022 that it had evidence that Iranian troops were "directly engaged on the ground" in Crimea supporting Russian drone attacks. "The systems themselves were suffering failures and not performing to the standards that apparently the customers expected," National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby acknowledged. "So the Iranians decided to move in some trainers and some technical support to help the Russians use them with better lethality."
Now the Iranian regime, presumably even more emboldened, will be providing ballistic missile to Russia in addition to the drones. Iran's regime has the largest and most diverse ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East.
"Ukraine currently doesn't have effective air defense systems against ballistic missiles," Ukraine Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat pleaded. "Iran will likely supply those (to Russia), unless the world finds a way to stop it".
There is still clearly a need in Ukraine to "close the sky," a request that Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi rejected.
Several top Iranian generals are directly involved in the war against Ukraine; they most likely received their orders from the Supreme Leader. Major-General Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, who is the Chief of Staff of Iran's Armed Forces and supervises Iran's military Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) program, is a key player in Iran's military cooperation with Moscow. He is "involved in the expansion of Iranian-made UAVs abroad; in this capacity, he inaugurated an assembly line in Tajikistan destined for the export of Ababil-2 drones. He also participated in the development of Mohajer-6 drones and their supply to the Russian Federation for their use in the war of aggression against Ukraine."
Also Brigadier-General Saeed Aghajani, who is the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps's Aerospace Force Unmanned Aerial Vehicle "oversees and directs the planning, equipment and training for Iran's UAV operations, which include also the supply of drones to international allies of Iran, including the Russian Federation".General Sayed Hojatollah Qureishi, in charge of the Supply, Research, and Industrial Affairs Division at the Iranian Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL), was behind "negotiating the agreement with the Russian Federation in relation to the supply of Iranian-made Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for their use in the war of aggression against Ukraine."So, because of the Biden administration, the new "Axis of Evil," Russia and Iran, are becoming more empowered and emboldened than ever. It is now time to abandon the "nuclear deal" with Iran permanently, "close the sky" over Ukraine, and quickly defeat Putin. At least it will show the other aggressors there is no way they can win.
**Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Why Republicans Are Surging
David Brooks/The New York Times/October, 29/2022
Democrats had a golden summer. The Dobbs decision led to a surge of voter registrations. Voters handed Democrats a string of sweet victories in unlikely places — Alaska and Kansas, and good news in upstate New York.
The momentum didn’t survive the fall. Over the past month or so, there’s been a rumbling across the land, and the news is not good for Team Blue. In the latest New York Times/Siena College poll 49 percent of likely voters said they planned to vote for a Republican for Congress, and 45 percent said they planned to vote for a Democrat. Democrats held a one-point lead last month. The poll contained some eye-popping numbers. Democrats were counting on abortion rights to be a big issue, gaining them broad support among female voters. It doesn’t seem to be working. Over the past month, the gender gap, which used to favor Democrats, has evaporated. In September, women who identified as independent voters favored Democrats by 14 points. Now they favor Republicans by 18 percentage points.
Republicans lead among independents overall by 10 points.
To understand how the parties think the campaign is going, look at where they are spending their money. As Henry Olsen noted in The Washington Post last week, Democrats are pouring money into House districts that should be safe — places that Joe Biden won by double digits in 2020. Politico’s election forecast, for example, now rates the races in California’s 13th District and Oregon’s Sixth District as tossups. Two years ago, according to Politico, he won those areas by 11 and 14 points.
If Republicans are competitive in places like that, we’re probably looking at a red wave election that will enable them to easily take back the House and maybe the Senate.
So how should Democrats interpret these trends? There’s a minimalist interpretation: Midterms are usually hard for the president’s party, and this one was bound to be doubly hard because of global inflation.
I take a more medium to maximalist view. I’d say recent events have exposed some serious weaknesses in the party’s political approach:
It’s hard to win consistently if voters don’t trust you on the top issue. In a recent AP-NORC poll, voters trust Republicans to do a better job handling the economy, by 39 percent to 29 percent. Over the past two years, Democrats have tried to build a compelling economic platform by making massive federal investments in technology, infrastructure and child welfare. But those policies do not seem to be moving voters. As The Times’s Jim Tankersley has reported, Democratic candidates in competitive Senate races are barely talking about the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which included direct payments to citizens. I thought the child tax credit expansion would be massively popular and could help create a Democratic governing majority. It turned out to be less popular than many anticipated, and there was little hue and cry when it expired. Maybe voters have a built-in uneasiness about income redistribution and federal spending. Democrats have a crime problem. More than three-quarters of voters say that violent crime is a major problem in the United States, according to a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll. Back in the 1990s, Bill Clinton and Joe Biden worked hard to give the Democrats credibility on this issue. Many Democrats have walked away from policies the party embraced then, often for good reasons. But they need to find another set of policies that will make the streets safer. Democrats have not won back Hispanics. In 2016, Donald Trump won 28 percent of the Hispanic vote. In 2020, it was up to 38 percent. This year, as William A. Galston noted in The Wall Street Journal, recent surveys suggest that Republicans will once again win about 34 to 38 percent of the Hispanic vote. In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis is leading the Democrat Charlie Crist by 16 points among Hispanics likely to vote.

How Does Britain’s Conservative Government End? Maybe With a Labor Rout.
Lynsey Hanley/The New York Times/October, 29/2022
On Tuesday Rishi Sunak became the third Conservative prime minister of Britain this year, elevated to the nation’s highest political office with the endorsement of fewer than 200 lawmakers — an easy hurdle if one compares it to the tens of millions of voters who would need convincing in a general election.
Mr. Sunak and the members of his party clearly hope the trials of the last few weeks and Liz Truss’s premiership are behind them; that the new prime minister can, with his newly reshuffled cabinet, get on with the business of governing.
But as everyone at the top table has been switching seats, the British people are experiencing high inflation and a harsh decline in living standards. To live in Britain now is to feel like nothing works: not the National Health Service, not the railways, and not even work itself, where wage increases are vastly outstripped by the price of almost everything. To this, Mr. Sunak has warned of “difficult decisions to come,” which many assume involves more spending cuts and austerity. The Conservative Party is markedly unpopular and seemingly out of ideas. Little wonder then that Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labor Party, keeps saying, “General election now.” After 12 years in opposition, Labor finally looks ready to seize the moment. Mr. Starmer has reason for confidence. In a YouGov poll from Oct. 20, before Mr. Sunak was installed, 63 percent of respondents thought that a general election should be called once a leader had been chosen. And another, also from last week, suggested that if a general election were held now, Labour would take 56 percent of the vote, enough to give it an enormous majority. There are many other examples.
But if the party seems now to have the advantage, it’s taken a long time to get here. Recent Labor history has been characterized by about as much political volatility as that of the governing party. From 2015 until 2020, Labor was led by Jeremy Corbyn, a veteran of the party’s left wing, whose social democratic platform was never taken remotely seriously by the British press, even when the party had a strong showing in the 2017 election. Then in the 2019 election, Labor was routed by then Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his facile “oven-ready” Brexit deal; Mr. Corbyn got the blame.
After that election, Mr. Corbyn’s net favorability ratings were minus 50. Labor needed a leader who, quite simply, looked more plausible. To its members, charged with choosing Mr. Corbyn’s successor, Sir Keir Starmer looked like that man.
Mr. Starmer rose from a relatively humble background to become a barrister and, in 2008, head of the Crown Prosecution Service. By 2015 he’d been awarded a knighthood for services to the law and had become a Labor member of Parliament. By April 2020 he was the party’s leader.
If Mr. Corbyn’s beliefs were thought variously to be too strident, too left wing or simply too alienating to average voters, Mr. Starmer’s have been difficult to pin down. Critics point to his record running the Crown Prosecution Service, where he defended the Human Rights Act against Conservative proposals to repeal it, but also declined to pursue a case against a police officer for the death of Ian Tomlinson, a newspaper vendor who died after being pushed to the ground during protests in London. When Mr. Starmer became Labor leader, he promised to retain many of his predecessor’s policies — yet within months, Mr. Starmer appeared to have torn up the lot without a suggestion of what would replace them. The clunky slogan, “Security, Prosperity, Respect” seemed to sum up his stiff, lawyerly presentation that was also thin on substance.
And the party itself has a perception problem that long predates Mr. Starmer and Mr. Corbyn. It has always struggled — with the anomalous exception of Tony Blair, prime minister from 1997 to 2007 — to look at ease in government.
But something changed this September. At its annual party conference Labor finally looked like a party with plans: to invest in the N.H.S., to create a sovereign wealth fund for green investment, to nationalize railways and create a publicly owned energy company that would run on clean power.
While the conference was still going on, Ms. Truss and her chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, announced the budget that crashed the pound. Right at the moment that the Conservatives were losing the economic credibility on which they have exhaustively relied, Labor was starting to look like a plausible alternative.
To be clear, even if there is an appetite for an election soon, the chances of one remain relatively low. In Britain parliamentary terms last a maximum of five years from the date the government is formed — even if the leader of the government changes — so another election is not legally required until January 2025. The most straightforward route to an early election would be for the prime minister to call one, but since polling suggests a wipeout for his party, that is improbable. More likely is that, with Mr. Sunak now appointed, the Conservative Party will attempt to push through and improve its electoral chances before the clock runs out. We’ll have to watch and see — these are improbable times. But after over a decade of Conservative government, austerity, Brexit, a pandemic and four prime ministers, Mr. Starmer spoke for many yesterday when he urged Mr. Sunak to call a general election, and “let working people have their say.” Sooner or later, working people will.

Killing the Leviathan with a Thousand Cuts
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/October, 29/2022
While political debate today is focused on the slow but steady disintegration of the so-called world order, the crises affecting the concept of statehood, the foundation of any world order, may not be receiving the attention it merits.
Ever since it appeared in its early and vague contours, statehood as a concept has been challenged by a range of factors-from paganism and its ritual to organized religion, ideology, despotic adventures, private financial power, and, more recently, globalization.
Statehood had to overcome tribalism and adopt the broader concept of “the people” as foundation bloc. It then had to ward off a challenge by organized religion and develop the concept of citizenship. What emerged was a world of nation-states that could coexist albeit not always in peace within a world order based on international law.
Today, however, most nation-states face crises that, each in its way has an impact on the world order as a whole. First, today we have 16 non-governed territories or failed states, the largest number for the past 150 years, morphing into the loci of instability and terror for chunks of western Asia and Africa.
Next we have nation-states, including China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran that has been turned into vehicles for a cult of personality.
All such states, and a few others like Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua and Eritrea where the cult of personality is less pronounced, an ideological veneer is used to burnish the image of the ruling elite.
Ideology, whether religious or secular, has always been an enemy of the state. Often, the state believes that it is using ideology in its service, as was the case when Constantine declared Christianity as state religion. Over the time, however, it was the empire that became the servant of the church, the saga terminating with the disintegration of the empire and the Lilliputian Papal States in parts of Italy.
In the USSR, Bolshevik ideology kept Russia and its captive nations out of normal human history for more than seven decades with tragic consequences that still affect Russia and even the rest if the world.
Today, the so-called democracies, too, are in crisis, at times with a farcical aspect as is the case in the United Kingdom.
The democracies face challenges foreseen by Hobbes in his “Leviathan”: the emergence of small but powerful interest groups that could use the power of state to further their narrow agendas.
This becomes possible when a majority of people, that is to say voters who are supposed to choose those who govern, are either uninterested in the political process or sympathize with the single-issue groups, lobbies and other coteries of activists.
In the 30 Western democracies voter turnout in the past 20 years has hovered around 55 percent.
For decades, no American or French president or British Prime Minister has been elected with the votes of at least 50 percent of those eligible to vote.
Because of proportional representation, most Western democracies have developed various patterns of coalition including the farcical one now in Germany.
In such a system tokenism becomes a must with Cabinets becoming a political version of the smorgasbord.
You have to be careful what celebrities, from TV presenters, press pundits, and talk radio hosts to promoters of alternative life-styles to Greta Thunberg or George Clooney, have to say. Behind the scenes you have to listen to billionaires in blue-jeans and bankers in basketball shoes.
As traditional political parties fade into ghosts, all of this means strengthening small but active groups at the expense of the state. But that is not all.
The nation-state has already lost part of its power to trans- or international bodies such as the United Nations, NATO, the European Union, World Trade Organization and dozens of other bureaucracies hiding behind acronyms.
At home what is called civil society runs its parallel show with hundreds, sometimes thousands of non-governmental groups (NGOs) not to mention well-funded lobbies whose task is to kill the “Leviathan” with a thousand cuts, each getting a morsel of the cadaver.
On the average, the democratic state controls more than half of the gross domestic product and is thus transformed into a mechanism for redistribution, a kind of cash-machine in front of which one sees a long queue of interest groups waiting to in their debit card into the slot. As a very un-scientific experiment I followed a week of French parliamentary politics. The impression I got was of being in a bazaar where all the talk is about money. Petrol prices are high? The state sends you a cheque. You can’t pay your electricity bill? Another cheque is on the way. Every problem under the sun is caused by “lack of resources”, a code word for money.
There was a big bust up whether the French should retire two years later than they do now and how to give certain categories a bigger cheque. A debate about the war in Ukraine and the astronomical sums devoted to its continuation? Not a chance. What about the sorry state of French schools where up to 30 percent of pupils are left without teachers for at least part of the academic year? Nope. Nor was any debate about pressure put by religious fanatics on French schoolgirls of North African origin to wear outlandish attires fit for Halloween parties.
The concept of the state has always been under attack from both left and right. In practice, however, almost all parties of the left and right used to acknowledge the specificity of the state as an institution. A state could act rightly or wrongly, according to who judged the act, but it would always act as a state. Now, however, we have glaring examples of states going rogue and acting as vehicles for fantasies of a leader. Judging by the latest conference of the Chinese Communist Party, China under Xi Jinping may become another example.

Could the fifth election in less than four years break the political deadlock in Israel?
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/October 29, 2022
It has been a long slog of an election campaign since the collapse of the Israeli coalition government in June. By Israeli standards it has been a relatively low-key campaign, though still a toxic one with the familiar below-the-belt personal attacks.
It might be the case that it is difficult to generate much interest, let alone excitement, in a fifth election in three-and-half years, in which the main protagonists are almost the same and the parties’ manifestos have barely changed at all.
Nevertheless, there is something different about this fifth time of asking Israelis to make up their minds about who should govern them — and it is not necessarily the expectation of a decisive outcome.
It is the first time for more than a decade that Israel has had experience of a government not led by the populist and divisive former prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. In the space of less than a year and a half, the country has had two prime ministers. The first was right-winger Naftali Bennett, who for now has left the political arena, and the second was the more centrist Yair Lapid, who replaced him in June as part of the rotating leadership agreement between the two of them.
The “change” government, as it came to be known, has been far from faultless. But despite its almost impossible composition — made up of a wide range of Zionist parties from the left and right plus, for good measure, an Islamist Palestinian-Israeli party — it has nevertheless restored an element of calm and good governance after all the chaos and deliberate discord sewn by the Netanyahu years.
Israeli elections are probably the only ones in the world in which as soon as the results of exit polls are announced, politicians, commentators and many of those who only few hours earlier cast their vote are already reaching for their calculators and embarking on what has become a the national sport of forming a coalition government.
The night of Nov. 1 will be no different and do not hold your breath for an outcome that will make the identity of the next prime minister or the composition of the government any clearer. However, this is not to say that the Israeli electorate does not have a choice to make; it does and it is rather a stark one.
They can either vote for the parties who formed the outgoing coalition government, which was an inclusive one that during its brief term in office succeeded in passing a budget bill after years during which this crucial element of governance was blocked and held to ransom by Netanyahu; a government that recently agreed a historic deal with Lebanon on the two countries’ maritime border that means they will share the natural resources under the seabed; and a government that has protected the justice system against attacks from the right and has also improved relations with the international community.
Alternatively, voters can choose a return to the Netanyahu years and an administration that thrives on driving a wedge between segments of society, increasing tensions with even its closest allies, and whose main aim, as before, will be to guarantee Netanyahu an indefinite hold on power and discredit the legitimacy of the justice system while seeking to undermine his ongoing corruption trial. The main demarcation line in Israeli politics is between two blocs: One that has vowed at any cost not to share power with Netanyahu as long as his corruption trial, on three cases of fraud, bribery and breach of trust, continues in a Jerusalem court, and those who are committed to Netanyahu, and no one else, and his attempt to become prime minister once again. It is rather shocking, especially in face of the evidence presented during Netanyahu’s trial, that he would be allowed to run for office while the trial is still ongoing. He is, of course, entitled, as any other citizen would be, to the presumption of innocence until proven guilty — but his hedonism and moral bankruptcy are beyond reasonable doubt.
To a large extent Netanyahu’s time as prime minister can be split into two periods, before and after the emergence of the corruption allegations against him in early 2017. Before then he was a nationalist-populist who would stop at almost nothing to gain and remain in power. But subsequently, his opportunism spiraled out of control in his attempts to destroy the justice system. First came his failed effort to halt the police investigation into his activities, then came his failed attempt to prevent his trial from going ahead. To that end he was also prepared to legitimize the ultranationalist Kahanist elements in Israeli society, in the form of the Religious Zionism party led by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir.
This party might become the main story and represents the most regressive political forces in Israeli politics. Ben-Gvir, who not so long ago was regarded as a political pariah, has now, in the most repulsive manner, been lauded by the right, who would like to see him holding a key ministry in the next government.
Netanyahu, and those who support him, including the ultra-Orthodox camp, all see the Supreme Court as a bastion of the left and a defender of the progressive democratic liberal values they despise. They would love to radically weaken this institution, not only to get Netanyahu, who is looking at a possible jail term, off his legal hook but to promote religious legislation in accordance with Jewish law. Whatever the election result on Tuesday, do not hold your breath for any change when it comes to the Palestinian issue — if it happens at all it will be more nuanced than radical. Only the Arab parties and the left-leaning Meretz party put a fair and just peace with the Palestinians high on their agendas. For the rest the issue has become a distraction and most definitely not a vote winner.
Whoever forms the next coalition government will continue to expand the settlements, will refuse to enter into any meaningful dialogue with the Palestinians, and will perceive Israel’s long-term security as relying on force rather than peace and reconciliation. And the right will pursue such a path with glee.
Still, this could yet prove to be a watershed general election for Israel. If Lapid and his allies should retain power, improvements, maybe even in relations with the Palestinians, will continue, albeit incrementally and in a less demagogical style.
The return of Netanyahu to the prime minister’s office would be more dangerous than ever for the country and the region, due to his desperate need to avoid imprisonment, which would make him a prisoner of the most extreme right-wing elements in Israeli society.
In the meantime, it is for the voters to think long and hard about what kind of country they would like to wake up to on Nov. 2, because the power to unlock the impasse in their political system is in their hands.
Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media. Twitter: @YMekelberg

The elephant in the room at COP27 could trample our climate change hopes
Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/October 29/2022
Next week, world leaders will once again gather at a global climate summit to rehash unmet commitments and pledge non-specific actions, while simultaneously resisting efforts to ensure the writ and spirit of the planned proceedings in Sharm El-Sheikh are binding, let alone enforceable.
Even now, in its 27th iteration and the fifth to be held on African soil, the UN Climate Change Conference, COP27, is unlikely to materially shift the planet away from its current trajectory toward severe disruption, even if it manages to shake off the “constructive ambiguity” of the previous year’s gathering in Glasgow, Scotland. Nonetheless, in our increasingly fragmented, multipolar world, such opportunities for continued cooperation and collaboration are welcome and should, rightly, be celebrated.
After all, just last year, more than 150 countries managed to put forward plans to decarbonize their economies. And in May this year, the G7 countries signed a commitment to predominantly decarbonize their electricity sectors by 2035. It capped off a string of highly-touted promises to reduce coal use, end commodity-based deforestation, cut methane emissions by a third, and double the financial support for mitigation and adaptation efforts across the developing world.
However, there is still a 42 percent probability that average global temperatures will rise by more than the target of 1.5 C above preindustrial levels. This is not helped by the fact that last year alone, carbon emissions totaled more than 36 billion tons, a 6 percent increase attributable to desperate attempts at recovery in many nations as the pandemic eased.
Failure to come up with constructive and meaningful agreements at COP26 last year have also dampened public enthusiasm and fueled a perception that this and future climate summits are unlikely to inspire much-needed global action.
For instance, Egypt, the host nation of this year’s gathering, has yet to declare its own emissions targets and its climate plans are deemed highly insufficient by experts.
The war raging in Ukraine has complicated global climate goals and inflamed international tensions that will likely hamper the deeper levels of cooperation needed to turn ambitions into concrete, enforceable action plans that will hold the world’s biggest emitters accountable.
Meanwhile, across the Arab world the debilitating effects of unmitigated climate change are only becoming more apparent, more severe and more frequent, in some cases compounding the negative effects of conflict, displacement, social inequalities and political instability.
Droughts, wildfires, record heat waves, floods and dust storms continue to pummel the region’s interiors and shores, worsening food and water insecurity, and introducing new socioeconomic and political headaches that could ultimately upend already complicated prevailing dynamics on the front lines of the climate change battle. In addition, a troubled geopolitical landscape, pandemic-battered economies saddled with increasingly expensive debt, food and energy inflation, rampant unemployment, and capital flight as a result of a strong US dollar are all factors that can sideline climate priorities, energy transitions and critical transformations as nations instead focus on fossil fuel-powered recoveries.
Indeed, the next two COP events are in the Middle East and North Africa region (following Egypt, the UAE will host in 2023), which presents a rare opportunity to center the discussions around the priorities and informed perspectives in the region that is most affected by climate change.
The urgency of the moment is not lost on the societies and governments of the region, nor are the potential, well-documented upsides to well-timed, adequately financed and proficiently executed interventions.
However, the pathways to net-zero emissions, clean energy and sustainable transformations are uncertain and highly variable across Arab countries. This means top-down solutions will undermine more effective, realistic and context-specific transformations, leaving already struggling societies and peoples worse off. If COP27 and COP28 are to have as much of an impact as COP 26 in Glasgow, if not a greater one, they must not become mere avenues for climate-diplomacy ambiguities or high-toned occasions for simply kicking the can further down the road.
It must be emphasized that if clean, renewable energy and the underlying technologies and innovations behind it are made foundational to whole-of-society transformations that precipitate effective mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is very possible, even probable, for most of the Arab world to simultaneously achieve both its climate and development goals.
The region’s sun-rich deserts and massive hydrocarbon endowments (for the production and export of blue hydrogen), for example, mean clean energy-focused interventions are already technically and economically feasible.
In addition, they come with innumerable benefits, including job creation, sustainable growth and resilience, as well as a reduction in adverse health and environmental effects.
Next, there must be greater acknowledgment of the uncertainties and differences in the pathways for most Arab countries to meet their commitments while also attempting to unlock opportunities for development, growth, economic sophistication and enhanced competitiveness during the transition to a post-oil world. Given the intensifying economic headwinds hampering post-pandemic recoveries and the equally urgent need to accelerate climate change interventions or transformations that are already behind schedule, the question now is whether Arab countries should change to recover or recover to change?
For oil-importing nations, the answer is relatively simple: Recover to change, first to recoup losses resulting from the pandemic and then to strengthen economies ahead of painful, politically costly transformations, especially absent generous external financial support that would most definitely come with strings attached. No matter how ambitious the pledges might be, countries will not be able to afford to subordinate urgent priorities to take on the mass-scale technological, economic, financial and social risks and uncertainties that come with lurching toward externally-mandated, top-down green transformations.
Besides, there has been little reassurance from the international community so far because, despite pledging up to $100 billion annually for climate change mitigation and adaptation across the developing world, much of that commitment remains severely underfunded. And continued inaction will only make climate-focused shifts across the global South much more costly as climate change-related humanitarian crises intensify.
As a result, to easily underwrite these recoveries ahead of urgent transformations, less-wealthy nations will just keep burning more fossil fuels in the short-to-medium term, creating incentives for oil exporters to slow down their own expensive transformations so that they can reap the financial windfall from uninterrupted hydrocarbon exports. This way, wealthier, oil-exporting countries in the region can reduce the effects on public finances, sociopolitical dynamics and their economies as they take their time to pursue climate-focused interventions.
Either way, most countries will ultimately end up missing their own targets and failing to meet commitments, and the planet will fail to achieve its 1.5-2 C target, with disastrous consequences for all.
After all, there is ample evidence from the planet’s paleoclimate records that shows an increase in global temperature of just 1.5-2 C above preindustrial-era averages will result in a sea level rise of 6 to 9 meters in the coming decades.
To put these figures in perspective, a 5 meter rise in sea level would wipe out 13 percent of Qatar’s land mass. Even just a 3 meter rise could reduce Egypt’s gross domestic product by 12 percent.
Merely insisting first on rough-shod transformations for all nations, in the search for nebulous ideals or simply to cross off items on a climate change checklist, will be detrimental to the efforts to achieve long-term goals, especially in a region that contains five of the 10 countries most vulnerable to climate change, including Iraq, Morocco and Egypt.
By ignoring country-specific concerns, only a chaotic future awaits us, even if world leaders reaffirm their commitments to stand up for the planet we live on with the necessary urgency to preempt the projected rises in global temperatures by the end of the century.
**Hafed Al-Ghwell is a Senior Fellow and Executive Director of the Ibn Khaldun Strategic Initiative (IKSI) at the Foreign Policy Institute (FPI) of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in Washington DC and the former Advisor to the Dean of the Board of Executive Directors of the World Bank Group. Twitter: @HafedAlGhwell