English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 27/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
To the unmarried and the widows I say that it is well for them to remain unmarried as I am. But if they are not practising self-control, they should marry. For it is better to marry than to be aflame with passion
First Letter to the Corinthians 07,01-03.08-14.17.24/:”Concerning the matters about which you wrote: ‘It is well for a man not to touch a woman. ’But because of cases of sexual immorality, each man should have his own wife and each woman her own husband. The husband should give to his wife her conjugal rights, and likewise the wife to her husband. To the unmarried and the widows I say that it is well for them to remain unmarried as I am. But if they are not practising self-control, they should marry. For it is better to marry than to be aflame with passion. To the married I give this command not I but the Lord that the wife should not separate from her husband = (but if she does separate, let her remain unmarried or else be reconciled to her husband), and that the husband should not divorce his wife. To the rest I say I and not the Lord that if any believer has a wife who is an unbeliever, and she consents to live with him, he should not divorce her. And if any woman has a husband who is an unbeliever, and he consents to live with her, she should not divorce him. For the unbelieving husband is made holy through his wife, and the unbelieving wife is made holy through her husband. Otherwise, your children would be unclean, but as it is, they are holy. However that may be, let each of you lead the life that the Lord has assigned, to which God called you. This is my rule in all the churches. In whatever condition you were called, brothers and sisters, there remain with God.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 26-27.2022
Mouawad slams Hezbollah's 'stranglehold' on Lebanon
US confirms Hochstein left for Beirut, lauds Berri's role
Gas production starts at Karish field off Israel
All parties, except LF, open to Berri's dialogue initiative
Hezbollah, Mikati ties at 'dangerous juncture' as Lebanon drifts towards vacuum
Bou Habib: No complications regarding Syria demarcation talks
Saudi embassy to convene 'Taif MPs' on November 5
Mikati urges Vatican to push for new president in Lebanon
Lebanon returns group of Syria refugees in latest scheme
Israel greenlights gas production from Karish field
UN says Palestinians in Lebanon facing 'dramatic humanitarian crisis'
Lebanon returns hundreds of refugees to Syria/Najia Houssari/Arab News/October 26, 2022
Saying Goodbye to the Hatemonger/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/October, 26/2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 26-27.2022
Iran security forces open fire as thousands mourn Mahsa Amini
At least 15 dead, dozens hurt in attack on Iran Shiite site
Iran protests at point of ‘no return’ — Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe
Iran security forces open fire as thousands mourn Mahsa Amini
Biden discusses Iranian drones in Ukraine with Israeli president
Gas crunch eases in Europe — but the respite might not last
French, German leaders meet in Paris amid diverging views
Russia fires rockets at Ukraine, renews 'dirty bomb' claims
Report finds sanctioned Syrians benefit from UN contracts
Herzog invited to address Congress as Israel turns 75
Israel detains alleged Palestinian militants in West Bank
UK leader Sunak faces opposition in Parliament for 1st time
UK Treasury chief delays detailing new economic plans

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 26-27.2022
United Nations goes DEFCON 3 on Israel/Clifford D. May - - Tuesday/October 26/2022
America's Self-Inflicted Foreign Policy Collateral Damage/Alberto M. Fernandez/MEMRI Daily Brief No. 424/October 26/2022
Washington and the Middle East: Naivety or Conspiracy?/Nadim Koteich/Asharq Al Awsat/October, 26/2022
Do Americans Have the Right to Boycott Israel?/Robert Ford/Asharq Al Awsat/October, 26/2022
Iran crackdown may burnish Raisi's credentials for top job/Michael Georgy and Tom Perry/Reuters/October 26/2022
America's 'Acute' Foreign Policy Disarray/Pete Hoekstra/Gatestone Institute/October 26, 2022
Protests must not divert West’s attention from Tehran’s nuclear defiance/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/October 26, 2022
Iran’s drone terror goes global/Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Arab News/October 26/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 26-27.2022
Mouawad slams Hezbollah's 'stranglehold' on Lebanon
Agence France Presse/October, 26/2022
MP Michel Mouawad on Wednesday urged lawmakers to back his bid for the presidency, denouncing Hezbollah's "stranglehold" on the crisis-hit country. MPs have been unable to pick a successor to President Michel Aoun whose term ends next week, stoking fears of a political crisis that would further compound three years of economic meltdown. "I am practically the only serious candidate running for the presidency," Mouawad told AFP in an interview, adding that he had "support from a large majority of the opposition". Mouawad, 50, is the presidential candidate who received the largest backing in Lebanon's divided parliament, mostly from lawmakers opposed to the powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah. But he is still far from securing the number of votes needed to snatch the position. "To change the balance of power, we must first unite the opposition, because we are divided," said Mouawad. He said that "Hezbollah's stranglehold" on Lebanon has pushed the country further into "Iran's sphere of influence", and accused the group of trying to impose a candidate who abides by its rules. Hezbollah has slammed Mouawad's close ties to the United States and urged political parties to vote for a consensual candidate. "A consensual candidate is someone who submits to Hezbollah's regional and internal policies," said Mouawad. "Lebanon today faces an existential danger. The state is disappearing, people are becoming poorer and migrating" he said, referring to the country's financial meltdown. Mouawad is the son of Lebanon's first post-civil war president Rene Mouawad who was assassinated 17 days after his election in 1989. His family accuses Syria, which dominated Lebanon at the time, of killing him. Mouawad said he is aware of the dangers of political life in Lebanon. "I know very well what the risks are... And I am ready to take them," he said, adding that he was facing "parties, and sometimes states who do not hesitate to assassinate people, when these people prove that they can make a change."

US confirms Hochstein left for Beirut, lauds Berri's role
Naharnet /October, 26/2022
U.S. Special Presidential Coordinator Amos Hochstein will travel to Lebanon Thursday to finalize the “historic agreement to establish a permanent maritime boundary between Lebanon and Israel,” the U.S. State Department said. In Beirut, Hochstein will meet with President Michel Aoun, Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, and Prime Minister Najib Mikati to “extend his gratitude to each for the consultative and open spirit demonstrated throughout the negotiations, the foundations of which were created under Speaker Berri’s leadership by the 2020 Framework,” the State Department said in a statement. Hochstein will then travel to Naqoura to take the final steps to bring Israel and Lebanon's agreement into force. The Parties will then submit the maritime coordinates to the United Nations in the presence of the United States. Hochstein will then travel to Israel where he will meet with Prime Minister Yair Lapid and “thank him and his team for their persistent and principled diplomacy to reach resolution on this critical file,” the State Department said.

Gas production starts at Karish field off Israel
Agence France Presse/October, 26/2022
Gas production has started at Karish, an offshore field at the center of a maritime border deal between Israel and Lebanon, London-listed Energean said Wednesday. "Gas is being produced from the Karish Main-02 well and the flow of gas is being steadily ramped up," a statement from the company said. The announcement comes a day before Lebanon and Israel are expected to sign their maritime deal, following lengthy negotiations mediated by Washington. Energy assets were fiercely contested in the talks, with Israel ultimately securing full rights over Karish as part of the accord.
Production at the other two gas wells at the site is due to begin within the next four weeks, Energean said. Karish joins Tamar and Leviathan to become Israel's third offshore rig providing natural gas, with each connected to the mainland by separate infrastructure. Under the accord with Lebanon, Beirut will have full rights to operate and explore the so-called Qana or Sidon reservoir nearby. Parts of the site fall within the territorial waters of Israel, which will receive some revenues. Indirect talks between the two countries -- which remain technically at war -- were launched in 2020. US President Joe Biden earlier this month hailed the deal as a "historic breakthrough". Washington's envoy Amos Hochstein will travel to Lebanon and Israel on Thursday when the deal will be finalized, the State Department said. Frederic Hof, the US mediator in 2020, said the agreement was intended to "eliminate as much as possible the possibility of a war at sea between Israel and Lebanon"."Israel has hopes and plans to maximize its natural gas resources and eventually export to Europe. Lebanon wants to move quickly to complete exploration and begin exploitation," he told journalists on Wednesday. Karish was a major source of friction in the negotiations, with Israel insisting the field fell entirely within its waters and was not a subject of negotiation. Lebanon reportedly claimed part of the field and Hezbollah, the powerful Iran-backed militant group that holds huge sway in Lebanon, threatened attacks if Israel began production at Karish. After the accord was announced on October 11, Hezbollah said it would support the deal if it was officially endorsed by the Lebanese government. The agreement was formally approved by Beirut two days later.

Report: All parties, except LF, open to Berri's dialogue initiative
Naharnet/October, 26/2022
The majority of the parliamentary blocs, except for the Lebanese Forces, are open to participate in a national dialogue suggested by Speaker Nabih Berri, ad-Diyar newspaper reported Wednesday. The LF party, unlike the rest, is not interested in a dialogue that might impose a consensual president, the daily added. Berri had called for national dialogue to find a successor to President Michel Aoun, saying that "without consensus, Lebanon will remain trapped in a whirlpool" and presidential election sessions would be "pointless." Meanwhile, al-Liwaa newspaper said that Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi is also considering to start a dialogue with the parties' leaders and the Christian blocs in order to find a new president.

Report: Hezbollah, Mikati ties at 'dangerous juncture' as Lebanon drifts towards vacuum
Naharnet/October 26/2022
The relation between Hezbollah and Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati is at a dangerous juncture, al-Akhbar newspaper reported Wednesday. The daily quoted informed sources as saying that the ties between Hezbollah and Mikati cannot remain as they were in the past years if the latter insists on "the vacuum scenario."In a farewell meeting on Tuesday, President Michel Aoun had told Mikati that he cannot guarantee that the Free Patriotic Movement will grant confidence to the government, al-Akhbar sources said. "We don’t want to take part (in the government). They want to force us into granting confidence to the government although we are not convinced of it or its premier," FPM chief Jebran Bassil said in a press conference. Mikati swiftly hit back, urging for solidarity and cooperation instead of accusations. "He wants a government that usurps the president’s powers," Bassil had said about Mikati, adding that the FPM "will not allow" it. Meanwhile, political sources confirmed to al-Joumhuriya newspaper that forming a new government remains possible until the last minute. The sources said that Hezbollah and General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim are still trying to resolve obstacles, behind the scenes.

Bou Habib: No complications regarding Syria demarcation talks
Naharnet/October, 26/2022
Caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib announced Wednesday that “there are no complications regarding the discussions for sea border demarcation with Syria. “We will agree with the Syrians on another date for the beginning of the border demarcation talks,” Bou Habib added, in remarks to Al-Jazeera TV. He also said that Lebanon’s caretaker government “will continue the maritime border demarcation talks with Syria.”“The Lebanese have major hope that Lebanon will become an oil producing country,” Bou Habib went on to say. He added that French oil giant TotalEnergies would begin gas exploration at Lebanon’s Qana field following the Thursday signing of the sea border agreement with Israel. “After the agreement is signed, we will officially publish the text of the sea border demarcation agreement,” Bou Habib said.

Saudi embassy to convene 'Taif MPs' on November 5
Naharnet/October, 26/2022
The Saudi Embassy in Beirut has invited all former MPs who took part in the 1989 Taif meetings to attend a conference at the UNESCO Palace in Beirut on November 5, a media report said on Wednesday. The conference will be titled “Taif 33 – The Lebanese National Accord”, Annahar newspaper said.
“The Saudi invitation comes to remind of the content of the Taif Accord, especially the part that is yet to be implemented in terms of executing reforms and limiting weapons to the Lebanese legitimate forces,” the daily added, quoting unnamed sources. “Holding the meeting at this exact timing resembles a message to those calling for dialogues aimed at amending the Taif Accord. The message says: implement Taif with its exact stipulations and there will be no need for alternatives dialogues or agreements,” the sources said. Only 15 out of 62 MPs who attended the Taif meetings are still alive – Hussein al-Husseini, Albert Mansour, Hassan al-Rifai, Michel Maalouli, Boutros Harb, Zaher al-Khatib, Najah Wakim, Mohammed Youssef Baydoun, Edmond Rizk, Anwar al-Sabah, Munif al-Khatib, Gebran Tawk, Saleh al-Kheir, Talal al-Merehbi and Mikhail al-Daher.

Mikati urges Vatican to push for new president in Lebanon
Naharnet /October, 26/2022
Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati held talks Wednesday at the Grand Serail with the newly-appointed Papal Ambassador to Lebanon, Paolo Borgia. “The relations between Lebanon and the Vatican were reviewed during the meeting and the Holy See reiterated its keenness on Lebanon and its sons,” the National News Agency said. Mikati for his part said that he is “counting on the efforts of the Vatican, in light of its moral authority and ties with all parties, to push for consensus among the Lebanese and the holding of the presidential election.”

Lebanon returns group of Syria refugees in latest scheme
Agence France Presse/October, 26/2022
A first batch of Syrian refugees left Lebanon Wednesday for their home country under a new repatriation plan slammed by rights groups. The latest repatriation effort, announced this month as a "voluntary" scheme, follows earlier such exercises since 2017. In the early hours of the morning, dozens of minibuses and trucks left Arsal in eastern Lebanon and drove towards the Syrian border. The refugees took with them personal belongings and farm animals. Lebanon's General Security agency said around 750 refugees were expected to return to Syria on Wednesday from several regions. Syria's official SANA news agency said that "a group of Syrian exiles arrived from refugee camps in Lebanon through the Daboussiye border crossing in central Homs province to return to their safe and terror-free areas." Hundreds of thousands fled Syria for Lebanon in the early years of the country's civil war, which began in 2011 with the brutal suppression of anti-regime protests. Around two million Syrian refugees are in Lebanon, nearly 830,000 of whom are registered with the United Nations. A total of 400,000 refugees have been sent back to Syria in earlier repatriation schemes since 2017, according to the Lebanese security agency. But human rights groups have categorized the returns as forced, rather than voluntary. "It is well established that Syrian refugees in Lebanon are not in a position to take a free and informed decision about their return," Amnesty's acting deputy director for the Middle East and North Africa, Diana Semaan, said on October 14.
Abbas Ibrahim, General Security director general, said Tuesday: "We will not force any displaced person to return."Since the Syrian army regained control of most of the country, some host countries have sought to expel refugees from their territories, citing the calmer environment. But according to rights groups, the relative end of hostilities does not mean that returning home is safe, given that some face prosecution.

Israel greenlights gas production from Karish field
Agence France Presse/October, 26/2022
Israel has given London-listed Energean permission to begin producing gas from Karish, an offshore field at the heart of a maritime border agreement about to be signed with Lebanon. A statement from the energy ministry said they "gave Energean the approval to begin producing natural gas from Karish". A spokeswoman for Energean stressed to AFP that while they had received the permit, they had not yet begun producing gas from Karish. An energy ministry spokeswoman told AFP Tuesday's permit was the last formality Energean needed before beginning production. Israel and Lebanon, which are technically at war, agreed to terms earlier this month on the deal which will be approved by the Israeli government on Thursday. Later that day the signing was due to take place in Lebanese town Naqura. Under the deal, Israel has full rights over the Karish gas field. Lebanon will have full rights to operate and explore the so-called Qana or Sidon reservoir, parts of which fall in Israel's territorial waters, with the Jewish state receiving some revenues.Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid, who is facing an election on November 1 and refused to bring the agreement before parliament for approval, commended the energy ministry's green light. "The production of natural gas from the Karish platform bolsters Israel's energy security, enhances our stature as energy exporters, strengthens Israel's economy and helps in grappling with the global energy crisis," he said in a statement. Karish will join Tamar and Leviathan to become Israel's third offshore rig providing natural gas, with each connected to the mainland by separate infrastructure. Gas exports to Jordan and Egypt would be able to increase, the energy ministry said, "and from there to additional countries in Europe that need natural gas sources in light of the global energy crisis".

UN says Palestinians in Lebanon facing 'dramatic humanitarian crisis'
Agence France Presse/October, 26/2022
The U.N. warned Wednesday that the number of impoverished Palestinians in Lebanon has risen substantially, fueling a "dramatic humanitarian crisis" as the country's economy collapses further. For the past three years, Lebanon has been in the throes of one of the worst economic crises in recent world history, according to the World Bank -- dealing an especially heavy blow to vulnerable communities, including refugees. Two-thirds of Palestinian refugee families in Lebanon have reduced the number of meals they eat per day, said Leni Stenseth, deputy commissioner-general at the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA), addressing reporters in Beirut. Her statement comes days after UNRWA "urgently" appealed for $13 million in funding for cash assistance to families, primary health care services and to keep the agency's schools open until the end of this year. The poverty level among Palestinian refugees in Lebanon has shot up from a little more than 70 percent at the beginning of the year to 93 percent, according to UNRWA. "This means that almost everyone is without the ability to cater for the most basic needs in their lives," Stenseth said. "This is a dramatic humanitarian crisis."Lebanon hosts about 210,000 Palestinian refugees, including 30,000 who fled Syria after war erupted in 2011, according to UNRWA.It also hosts more than one million Syrian refugees. Most Palestinians live in 12 official refugee camps in squalid conditions, worsened by Lebanon's financial meltdown, and face a variety of legal restrictions, including on their employment. "We know the infrastructure in Lebanon is depleted... of course the camps are in no better state," she said, adding that UNRWA is working on a prevention campaign to help shield refugees from a cholera outbreak that struck Lebanon last month. Cholera has spread mainly among Lebanon's Syrian refugees, but no cases have so far been reported in Palestinian camps. "We've asked for funding now to prepare for the situation that has just surfaced linked to cholera," she said. Palestinians were among more than 100 who died after a migrant boat that left from Lebanon's north sank off neighboring Syria, in one of the deadliest such shipwrecks in the eastern Mediterranean. Economic collapse has pushed hundreds to attempt perilous sea journeys in the hope of reaching Europe. This trend is "also a risk to Europe," Stenseth said. "Better to act now and provide us with what we need," she said in reference to the agency's funding needs, "rather than responding too late."

Lebanon returns hundreds of refugees to Syria
Najia Houssari/Arab News/October 26, 2022
The refugees, many of whom had been living in Arsal, packed belongings and furniture and crossed at Al-Zamrani into western Qalamoun
Lebanon’s General Security Office is running the program to return Syrians who it says have expressed their wish to return
BEIRUT: Hundreds of Syrian refugees have left Lebanon and returned to their home country in the voluntary program run by Lebanese security services.
The refugees, many of whom had been living in Arsal, packed belongings and furniture and crossed at Al-Zamrani into western Qalamoun. Others who had been living in the southern city of Nabatieh returned via the Masnaa crossing. Lisa Abou Khaled, a spokesperson for the UN refugee agency UNHCR, told Arab News that it was not “facilitating or promoting” the repatriation program. “Nonetheless, thousands of refugees choose to exercise their right to return each year. UNHCR supports and calls for respect of refugees’ fundamental human right to freely and voluntarily return to their country of origin at a time of their choosing and in line with the international principles of the voluntary, dignified, and safe return and non-refoulement,” she said. Lebanon’s General Security Office is running the program to return Syrians who it says have expressed their wish to return.
Estimates suggested 400 crossed into Syria on Wednesday, but the number could be as high as 700. Hector Hajjar, Lebanon’s caretaker minister of social affairs, said: “We are not showing off the number of refugees. The political decision has been made. There are other groups and the operation will continue.”Meanwhile, Lebanese officials were preparing to travel to Naqoura, the headquarters of the UN force UNIFIL, to sign a maritime border demarcation deal with Israel on Thursday. Reports suggested that neither delegation will meet. Instead, they will sign copies of the agreement in separate rooms and hand them to the US mediator, Amos Hochstein. The deal will include one appendix only, which is Lebanon’s message to the UN regarding the border demarcation. The appendix will bear President Michel Aoun’s signature. Israel announced on the eve of the signing that it had granted the energy firm Energean permission to start work at the offshore Karish gas field, an issue at the center of the dispute. The World Bank meanwhile called for international cooperation to help start energy exploration in the Lebanese areas set out under the deal. The statement came after senior officials from the bank’s Middle East department met Aoun and other Lebanese ministers on Wednesday. Lebanon’s parliament meanwhile announced that there would be no session on Thursday to elect a new president, once again stalling the process to replace Aoun before he leaves his position in less than a week.
Abdallah Bou Habib, the caretaker foreign minister, was urged by a visiting delegation from the US Congress and the American Task Force for Lebanon to “speed up” the election, and accelerate stalled investigations into the huge port explosion that killed hundreds in Beirut two years ago.

Saying Goodbye to the Hatemonger
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al Awsat/October, 26/2022
I hope the readers will forgive me for citing an old column of mine in which I call Aounism a product of many hatreds:
- Hatred for the Lebanese Forces, within the same Christian community.
- Hatred of the Sunni sect, especially because of Rafik Hariri and the immense role he played politically and economically.
- Hatred of the Druze community, an extension of the Mountains War of the 1980s and its grudges.
- Hatred of the Syrians. It was initially focused on the Assad regime because of the tutelage it had imposed on Lebanon and the “War of Liberation.” But since 2005, and especially 2011 and the arrival of Syrian refugees, it has been replaced with hatred for the Syrian people as a whole.
If hatred, in principle, is among the worst qualities a person can have, then Aounism is the lowest common denominator among the Lebanese people, whose readiness to become hatemongers is fueled by sectarianism. This is also what makes every phenomenon that resembles sectarianism the lowest common denominator among the people who experience such a phenomenon.
For this reason, when hatemongers rule based on hate, they can only speak to primal impulses.
In the first place, he divides the people, who are supposed to be one, into friends and enemies. The former become the “great nation” or the “most honorable of people,” whom the homeland and patriotism identify with. The latter, meanwhile, are presented as traitors, mercenaries, corrupt and so on.
In this sense, politics during Michel Aoun’s term was more a pure equivalent to identity and its politics, i.e., that which politics is supposed to overcome and defeat, than anything else.
With moods and sentiments shaping these politics, its content, which is weak anyway, is discarded, as are achievements, whose existence is difficult to confirm. Political life is thus pushed toward being reduced to tribal squabbling between “us” and “them” - both always absolute categories.
As for the institutions that are supposed to, among other things, improve national togetherness, they become crudely partisan, as the Lebanese judiciary has been during the presidential term that is now coming to a close.
The configuration of the Aounist movement is complemented by the presence of an “educated” or “wealthy” elite that sit atop professionals and cadres and are called “successful” and “upright” but whose link to politics is extremely rudimentary, if there at all.
Because raw instinct does not hold any promise for the future, politics becomes akin to revolving around the past, which is seen as the force determining our trajectory, similar to the recurring debate about the colonial era in Algeria (it was recently reduced to a row over skulls and retrieving them).
For this reason, we see only “promises” molded along that of “returning” to the pre-Taif era or to a time before Syrian civilians sought refuge in Lebanon. The “strength” that Aoun “embodied” - or that he had been “prevented” from embodying - thus becomes the remedy for treating the ills of political life! This is because “rights” - “the right of the Christians” here - can only be retrieved by force, which renders political exchange similar to perpetual civil war.
Indeed, as with other populist phenomena, overarching headlines described as noble are curtains hiding small - very small - covetous ambitions. As for the situation at hand, it is little more than arriving late to snatch “our share” of the cake that was baked and distributed in 1990.
As is the case with late arrivals, the Aounists’ appetite for power and corruption emerged in an amplified and inflated form, besides being imbued with a crudeness that is reflected in the role of Aoun’s son-in-law Gebran Bassil in running the country.
These tendencies are reinforced by the fact that Aoun is a man of crises and exceptional situations like no other politician in modern Lebanese history.
He first came to life politically in the late 1980s. This first birth was tied to a deep crisis that emerged after Amin Gemayel’s presidential term had ended, and it was followed by wars that continued until Aoun was exiled to France.
As for his second birth, it came with his election as president of the republic, crowning yet another political and constitutional crisis, with some even deluded into thinking that Aoun personally becoming president was the only solution for it.
Today, he leaves his palace, leaving Lebanon in its entirety in a crisis that we might not ever manage to resolve. There would be no hyperbole in claiming that his six-year term has left the country face to face not only with the ills of raw and naked nature but also with nature’s germs, while treatments and immunity are almost non-existent.
However, Aoun leaves his palace frustrated and defeated.
In the first place, populist leadership on a national scale is almost impossible in Lebanon because of its sectarian makeup, which renders populism broken into fragments of populisms distributed among the country’s sects.
As for sticking to a single, clear definition of populism, it is made far-fetched by the trajectory of the Aounists themselves, whose fluctuations and opportunism surpass those we are used to seeing with populist movements in general. Indeed, characterizations lose their ability when the characterized veers from Bashir Gemayel to Bashar al-Assad and Hassan Nasrallah.
More significant though, and here another fatal problem in Aounism emerges, is that its subordination to the leader of Hezbollah takes the hot air out of Aoun’s balloon and takes him back decades, to a time when he had been an officer obeying orders.
Add to that that the man, who had always lacked charisma, has become in need of some vigor. His son-in-law and heir Gebran, meanwhile, finds himself obliged, whenever he speaks, to answer a question that precedes any questions of politics and responsibility: How old is this young man striving for glory and the highest of heights? Overall, these were six dark years that Aoun could not have made so dark alone. It took the concerted efforts of many players to create this thick, pitch-black cloud that could continue to hover over us for years to come.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 26-27.2022
Iran security forces open fire as thousands mourn Mahsa Amini
AFP/October 26, 2022
Columns of mourners had poured into Saqez in the western Kurdistan province to pay tribute to Amini at her grave
“Death to the dictator,” mourners chanted at the Aichi cemetery outside Saqez
PARIS: Iranian security forces opened fire on protesters who massed in their thousands on Wednesday in Mahsa Amini’s hometown to mark 40 days since her death, a human rights group said.
“Security forces have shot tear gas and opened fire on people in Zindan square, Saqez city,” Hengaw, a Norway-based group that monitors rights violations in Iran’s Kurdish regions, tweeted without specifying whether there were any dead or wounded. Despite heightened security measures, columns of mourners had poured into Saqez in the western Kurdistan province to pay tribute to Amini at her grave at the end of the traditional mourning period. Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian of Kurdish origin, died on September 16, three days after her arrest in Tehran by the notorious morality police for allegedly breaching the Islamic dress code for women.
Anger flared at her funeral last month and quickly sparked the biggest wave of protests to rock the Islamic republic in almost three years. Young women have led the charge, burning their hijab headscarves and confronting security forces. “Death to the dictator,” mourners chanted at the Aichi cemetery outside Saqez, before many were seen heading to the governor’s office in the city center. Iran’s Fars news agency said around 2,000 people gathered in Saqez and chanted “Woman, life, freedom.”But thousands more were seen making their way in cars, on motorbikes and on foot along a highway, through fields and even across a river, in videos widely shared online by activists and rights groups. Noisily clapping, shouting and honking car horns, mourners packed the highway linking Saqez to the cemetery eight kilometers (five miles) away, in images that Hengaw told AFP it had verified. “This year is the year of blood, Seyed Ali will be toppled,” a group of them chanted in a video verified by AFP, referring to Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
“Kurdistan, Kurdistan, the graveyard of fascists,” others were heard singing in a video shared by activists on Twitter. AFP was unable to immediately verify the footage. Hengaw said strikes were underway in Saqez as well as Divandarreh, Marivan, Kamyaran and Sanandaj, and in Javanrud and Ravansar in the western province of Kermanshah. The Norway-based rights group said Iranian football stars Ali Daei and Hamed Lak had traveled to Saqez “to take part in the 40th day” service. They had been staying at the Kurd Hotel but were “taken to the government guesthouse... under guard by the security forces,” it said. Daei has previously run into trouble with authorities over his online support for the Amini protests. Kurdistan governor Esmail Zarei-Kousha said the situation in Saqez was calm and dismissed as “completely false” reports that roads into the city had been shut. “The enemy and its media... are trying to use the 40-day anniversary of Mahsa Amini’s death as a pretext to cause new tensions but fortunately the situation in the province is completely stable,” he said, quoted by state news agency IRNA.Hengaw said most of Saqez was “empty” as so many people had left the city to join the ceremony to commemorate Amini. The social media channel 1500tasvir, which chronicles rights violations by Iran’s security forces, said fresh protests flared elsewhere including at universities in Tehran, Mashhad in Iran’s northeast, and Ahvaz in the southwest. Oslo-based group Iran Human Rights said the security forces’ crackdown on the Amini protests has claimed the lives of at least 141 demonstrators, in an updated death toll Tuesday. Amnesty International says the “unrelenting brutal crackdown” has killed at least 23 children, while IHR said at least 29 children have been slain.
More than five weeks after Amini’s death, the demonstrations show no signs of ending. They have been fueled by public outrage over the crackdown that has claimed the lives of other young women and girls. Iran’s Forensic Organization said in a report this month that Amini’s death “was not caused by blows to the head and vital organs and limbs of the body.” But lawyers acting for her family have rejected the findings and called for a re-examination of her death by another commission. Iran announced sanctions Wednesday targeting individuals and media outlets in the European Union, in retaliation for the bloc’s punitive measures imposed last week on the morality police and other officials over the crackdown.

At least 15 dead, dozens hurt in attack on Iran Shiite site
Associated Press/October 26/2022
Gunmen opened fire Wednesday at a major Shiite holy site in the southern city of Shiraz, killing at least 15 people and wounding dozens, according to state-run media. The official website of the judiciary says two gunmen were arrested and a third is on the run after the attack on the Shah Cheragh mosque. The state-run IRNA news agency reported the death toll and state TV said 40 people were wounded. The attack, which bore the hallmarks of Sunni extremists who have targeted the country's Shiite majority in the past, comes as Iran has been convulsed by over a month of anti-government demonstrations, the biggest challenge to the Islamic Republic in over a decade. Thousands of protesters poured into the streets of a northwestern city to mark the watershed 40 days since the death in custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, whose tragedy sparked the protests.
Deaths are commemorated in Shiite Islam — as in many other traditions — again 40 days later, typically with an outpouring of grief. In Amini's Kurdish hometown of Saqez, the birthplace of the nationwide unrest now roiling Iran, crowds snaked through the local cemetery and thronged her grave.
"Death to the dictator!" protesters cried, according to video footage that corresponds with known features of the city and Aichi Cemetery. Women ripped off their headscarves, or hijabs, and waved them above their heads. Other videos showed a massive procession making its way along a highway and through a dusty field toward Amini's grave. There were reports of road closures in the area. State-linked media reported 10,000 protesters in the procession to her grave. Hengaw, a Kurdish human rights group, said security forces fired tear gas to disperse demonstrators. The semiofficial ISNA news agency said security forces fired pellets at crowds of demonstrators on the outskirts of Saqez and pushed back demonstrators who tried to attack the governor's office. It said local internet access was cut off due to "security considerations."
Earlier in the day, Kurdistan Gov. Esmail Zarei Koosha insisted that traffic was flowing as normal, calling the situation "completely stable." State-run media announced that schools and universities in Iran's northwestern region would close, purportedly to curb "the spread of influenza."In downtown Tehran, the capital, major sections of the traditional grand bazaar closed in solidarity with the protests. Crowds clapped and shouted "Freedom! Freedom! Freedom!" through the labyrinthine marketplace.
"This year is a year of blood!" they also chanted. "(Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei) will be toppled!"
Riot police on motorbikes were out in force. A large group of men and women marched through the streets, setting trash cans ablaze and shouting Death to the dictator!" as cars honked their support. Police unleashed anti-riot bullets at protesters in the streets and sprayed pellets upward at journalists filming from windows and rooftops. Anti-government chants also echoed from the University of Tehran campus. Amini, detained for allegedly violating the country's strict dress code for women, remains the potent symbol of protests that have posed one of the most serious challenges to the Islamic Republic. With the slogan #WomanLifeFreedom, the demonstrations first focused on women's rights and the state-mandated hijab, or headscarf for women. But they quickly evolved into calls to oust the Shiite clerics that have ruled Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The protests have also galvanized university students, labor unions, prisoners and ethnic minorities like the Kurds along Iran's border with Iraq. Since the protests erupted, security forces have fired live ammunition and tear gas to disperse demonstrations, killing over 200 people, according to rights groups.
Untold numbers have been arrested, with estimates in the thousands. Iranian judicial officials announced this week they would bring over 600 people to trial over their role in the protests, including 315 in Tehran, 201 in the neighboring Alborz province and 105 in the southwestern province of Khuzestan. Tehran prosecutor Ali Salehi told the state-run IRNA news agency that four protesters were charged with "war against God," which is punishable by death in Iran. Iranian officials have blamed the protests on foreign interference, without offering evidence.
Last week, Iran imposed sanctions on over a dozen European officials, companies and institutions, including foreign-based Farsi channels that have extensively covered the protests, accusing them of "supporting terrorism." The sanctions involve an entry and visa ban for the staffers in addition to the confiscation of their assets in Iran. Deutsche Welle, the German public broadcaster whose Farsi team was blacklisted, condemned the move on Wednesday as "unacceptable.""I expect politicians in Germany and Europe to increase the pressure on the regime," said DW Director General Peter Limbourg. In a separate development, most of the remaining portion of a 10-story tower that collapsed earlier this year in the southwestern city of Abadan, killing at least 41 people, fell on Wednesday, state-run media reported. The state-run IRNA news agency reported that a woman in a car parked near the site was killed. Other parts of the building had collapsed last month. The deadly collapse of the Metropol Building on May 23 became a lightning rod for protests in Abadan, some 660 kilometers (410 miles) southwest of the capital, Tehran. The disaster shined a spotlight on shoddy construction practices, government corruption and negligence in Iran. Videos spread online of the remaining tower crashing into the street as massive clouds of dust billowed into the sky.

Iran protests at point of ‘no return’ — Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe
Reuters/October 26, 2022
Zaghari-Ratcliffe: This is the generation of social media and TikTok and the Internet; they know more about the world and their rights than we did
During her detention in Tehran’s Evin prison, Zaghari-Ratcliffe said she met many women who had received long jail terms for protesting against Iran’s mandatory hijab rule
LONDON: Protests engulfing Iran have reached a point of “no return” as demonstrators demand wide reforms beyond the end of mandatory hijab rules, said British-Iranian charity worker Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, who spent six years detained in Tehran.
She said the Islamic government’s crackdown on the popular revolt and shutdown of the Internet showed it was scared of losing control. “The anger has been building up for many, many years,” said Zaghari-Ratcliffe as demonstrations raged for a sixth week, triggered by the death in police custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained for “inappropriate attire.” “We can see a coming together for one single goal, and that is freedom. The protests are really, really powerful this time. I don’t think we’ve ever seen the unity we’re seeing now,” said Zaghari-Ratcliffe, describing Amini’s death as the “spark for an explosion.”The protests have grown into one of the boldest challenges to the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution even if they do not appear close to toppling a government that has deployed its powerful security apparatus to quell the unrest.
“There is a generational shift which plays a massive role in the new movement,” said Zaghari-Ratcliffe, who works for the Thomson Reuters Foundation as a project manager, ahead of addressing the charity’s annual Trust Conference on Wednesday.
“This is the generation of social media and TikTok and the Internet. They know more about the world and their rights than we did. They have a lot more courage than we did.”The uprising has seen women tear off and burn their veils, with crowds calling for the downfall of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Thousands have been detained by security forces and more than 250 killed including children, according to rights groups.
Zaghari-Ratcliffe, 43, was arrested at Tehran airport in 2016 after a trip to see her parents with her then 22-month-old daughter Gabriella. She was separated from her daughter, whom she was still breastfeeding, and put in solitary confinement in a tiny windowless cell for nine months.
Zaghari-Ratcliffe was later convicted of plotting to overthrow the clerical establishment. She denied the charge and the case was widely seen as political. She was freed in March after Britain repaid a historic debt to Tehran. During her detention in Tehran’s Evin prison, Zaghari-Ratcliffe said she met many women who had received long jail terms for protesting against Iran’s mandatory hijab rule, including one 19-year-old sentenced to 24 years. She said the current protests were a greater threat to the government than previous ones because they had attracted broader support, with labor unions now organizing strikes which could potentially paralyze the economy.
“There’s no return from here,” she said. “This is not just about forced hijab any more. It’s also about the repressive rules they’ve been imposing on people for a very, very long time. It’s about unemployment, it’s about lifestyle, it’s about freedom to have access to information and the Internet.”
Iran has shut down the Internet and blocked access to platforms such as Instagram and WhatsApp to stop people organizing protests and sharing images with the outside world. “Shutting down the Internet is exactly what they are doing when they put people in solitary (confinement), only on a bigger scale,” said Zaghari-Ratcliffe. “They disconnect you from the outside world so the world doesn’t know what is happening to you and you can’t tell them. They want people to be scared and feel forgotten.” She told the conference the international community had the means to counter surveillance and censorship by the government and urged action to ensure Iranians could access a “free flow of information.” She also called for targeted sanctions on individuals, adding that Iran had learnt to live with general sanctions.
Earlier on Wednesday, the United States slapped sanctions on Iranian officials and entities involved in Internet censorhip and the crackdown. They included those overseeing Evin prison, which holds political prisoners, and where Washington says many protesters have been sent. Her voice breaking, Zaghari-Ratcliffe read out the names of friends still locked up in Evin and asked the conference to remember Amini on the 40th day after her death, a traditional time of mourning in Iran. “(Amini’s) death sparked rays of hope for all of us ... in Iran, but also across the globe, that hopefully justice will prevail. Her name is a code for freedom,” she said. Zaghari-Ratcliffe told the Thomson Reuters Foundation the protests made her proud to be an Iranian woman. “It’s a shame for those of us living in enforced exile that we cannot be with the women on the streets, but we are certainly very proud,” she said. Zaghari-Ratcliffe is settling back into London with her daughter and husband Richard, who ran a long campaign for her release including a three-week hunger strike while camped outside the Foreign and Commonwealth Office. But she said she could not feel entirely free while friends were still in jail. “Freedom is a very relative concept. I’m free in terms of coming out of prison and coming back home to my family in London. But I have left a part of me in Iran,” she said. “I won’t be completely free until my country is free.”

Iran security forces open fire as thousands mourn Mahsa Amini
Agence France Presse/October 26/2022
Iranian security forces opened fire on protesters who massed in their thousands on Wednesday in Mahsa Amini's hometown to mark 40 days since her death, a human rights group said. "Security forces have shot tear gas and opened fire on people in Zindan square, Saqez city," Hengaw, a Norway-based group that monitors rights violations in Iran's Kurdish regions, tweeted without specifying whether there were any dead or wounded. Despite heightened security measures, columns of mourners had poured into Saqez in the western Kurdistan province to pay tribute to Amini at her grave at the end of the traditional mourning period. Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian of Kurdish origin, died on September 16, three days after her arrest in Tehran by the notorious morality police for allegedly breaching the Islamic dress code for women. Anger flared at her funeral last month and quickly sparked the biggest wave of protests to rock the Islamic republic in almost three years. Young women have led the charge, burning their hijab headscarves and confronting security forces. "Death to the dictator," mourners chanted at the Aichi cemetery outside Saqez, before many were seen heading to the governor's office in the city center. Iran's Fars news agency said around 2,000 people gathered in Saqez and chanted "Woman, life, freedom". But thousands more were seen making their way in cars, on motorbikes and on foot along a highway, through fields and even across a river, in videos widely shared online by activists and rights groups. Noisily clapping, shouting and honking car horns, mourners packed the highway linking Saqez to the cemetery eight kilometers (five miles) away, in images that Hengaw told AFP it had verified.
'Year of blood'
"This year is the year of blood, Seyed Ali will be toppled," a group of them chanted in a video verified by AFP, referring to Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. "Kurdistan, Kurdistan, the graveyard of fascists," others were heard singing in a video shared by activists on Twitter. AFP was unable to immediately verify the footage. Hengaw said strikes were underway in Saqez as well as Divandarreh, Marivan, Kamyaran and Sanandaj, and in Javanrud and Ravansar in the western province of Kermanshah. The Norway-based rights group said Iranian football stars Ali Daei and Hamed Lak had travelled to Saqez "to take part in the 40th day" service. They had been staying at the Kurd Hotel but were "taken to the government guesthouse... under guard by the security forces", it said. Daei has previously run into trouble with authorities over his online support for the Amini protests. Kurdistan governor Esmail Zarei-Kousha said the situation in Saqez was calm and dismissed as "completely false" reports that roads into the city had been shut. "The enemy and its media... are trying to use the 40-day anniversary of Mahsa Amini's death as a pretext to cause new tensions but fortunately the situation in the province is completely stable," he said, quoted by state news agency IRNA.
Fresh student rallies
Hengaw said most of Saqez was "empty" as so many people had left the city to join the ceremony to commemorate Amini. The social media channel 1500tasvir, which chronicles rights violations by Iran's security forces, said fresh protests flared elsewhere including at universities in Tehran, Mashhad in Iran's northeast, and Ahvaz in the southwest. Oslo-based group Iran Human Rights said the security forces' crackdown on the Amini protests has claimed the lives of at least 141 demonstrators, in an updated death toll Tuesday. Amnesty International says the "unrelenting brutal crackdown" has killed at least 23 children, while IHR said at least 29 children have been slain. More than five weeks after Amini's death, the demonstrations show no signs of ending. They have been fueled by public outrage over the crackdown that has claimed the lives of other young women and girls. Iran's Forensic Organization said in a report this month that Amini's death "was not caused by blows to the head and vital organs and limbs of the body".But lawyers acting for her family have rejected the findings and called for a re-examination of her death by another commission. Iran announced sanctions Wednesday targeting individuals and media outlets in the European Union, in retaliation for the bloc's punitive measures imposed last week on the morality police and other officials over the crackdown.'

Biden discusses Iranian drones in Ukraine with Israeli president
AFP/October 26, 2022
Herzog said he “mainly” discussed Iran’s nuclear program, crushing of protesters, and the issue of Tehran’s drone sales to Russia with Biden
WASHINGTON: US President Joe Biden and Israel’s President Isaac Herzog on Wednesday discussed the growing threat to Ukraine from Russia’s Iranian-supplied war drones, as Israel comes under pressure to help Kyiv.Herzog told reporters at the White House after his talks that they “mainly” discussed Iran’s nuclear program, the crushing of protesters demonstrating against strict Iranian religious laws, and the issue of Tehran’s drone sales to Russia. The weapons are “killing innocent Ukrainian citizens,” Herzog said. Israel has been reluctant to get involved in a US-led alliance helping pro-Western Ukraine to repel a bloody Russian invasion. But Herzog’s trip to Washington underlined Israeli concern at the growing role of Iran in the conflict, with Tehran accused of supplying fleets of deadly drones used by Russia against Ukrainian civilian targets. On Tuesday Herzog met with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and announced he was sharing intelligence to prove that Iran has been supplying military drones to the Russians. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed this Wednesday, saying “this is a positive trend in relations with Israel.... After a long pause, I see us moving forward.”
Biden and Herzog also discussed Iran’s ongoing tussle with the international community over its nuclear program, which it insists has only civilian goals. Israel opposes a push by the Biden administration to salvage a deal that would reinstate international inspections in Iran in exchange for sanctions relief.
Sitting alongside Herzog in the White House Oval Office, Biden praised Israel for reaching a long-delayed accord with Lebanon on their sea border. The deal was brokered by the United States. Biden hailed the “historic breakthrough.”“It took a lot of courage for you to step up and step into it,” he told Herzog. “It took some real guts. It took principled and persistent diplomacy to get it done.” Biden said the newly agreed border would allow both countries to develop energy fields, and it would “create new hope and economic opportunities.”Herzog indicated that Biden would be attending the COP27 climate summit in Egypt next month — something not yet confirmed by the White House — and said the climate crisis “can serve as a common denominator for so many nations.” Herzog’s visit comes days ahead of Israel’s fifth election in less than four years. Hawkish ex-prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has had tense relations with Democratic US administrations, is seeking a comeback. It also comes less than two weeks before Americans vote in the midterm elections that are predicted to strip Biden’s Democrats of their control of Congress. “We have elections in Israel and you’re having midterm elections in the United States but one thing is clear — I think this visit epitomizes that our friendship, our strong bond transcends all political differences,” Herzog told Biden.

Gas crunch eases in Europe — but the respite might not last
Associated Press/October 26/2022
Natural gas and electricity prices in Europe have plunged from summer peaks thanks to mild weather and a monthslong scramble to fill gas storage ahead of winter and replace Russian supplies during the war in Ukraine. It's a welcome respite after Russia slashed natural gas flows, triggering an energy crisis that has fueled record inflation and a looming recession. Yet experts warn it's too soon to exhale, even as European governments roll out relief packages for people struggling with high utility bills and work on longer-term ways to contain volatile gas and electricity prices that have shrunk household budgets and forced some businesses to shut down. Uncertainties include not only the weather but how responsive people will be to appeals to turn down their heating and how much demand there will be from Asian economies for scarce energy supplies. And the war a few hours east is a cauldron of possible unpleasant surprises that could cut energy supplies needed for electricity, heating and factory work and send prices sharply higher. Persistent unknowns are leaving energy-intensive businesses jittery. They are appealing to governments to help them and their customers weather the energy storm so that disruptions in supplies of everything from glass to plastics to clean hospital sheets do not cascade through the economy.
"We must remember that we are still in a tense situation — an economic war between the European Union and Russia in which Russia has weaponized energy supplies," said Agata Loskot-Strachota, an energy policy expert at the Center for Eastern Studies in Warsaw, Poland. The good news is natural gas prices on Europe's TTF benchmark fell on Monday below 100 euros per megawatt hour for the first time since June. Electricity prices also fell. But there's no sense of relief for business owners like Sven Paar, whose commercial laundry in the town of Wallduern will use around 30,000 euros worth of natural gas this year. He runs 12 heavy-duty machines that can wash eight tons of hospital and hotel bedsheets and restaurant tablecloths each day. His local utility says the bill is rising to 165,000 euros next year. On top of that, Paar says he's unsettled by a lack of clarity from the German government on whether laundries like his would be considered essential to the economy and spared cutbacks in case of state-imposed rationing. Reports that the utility regulator is working on sorting out the question aren't enough. "The problem is, everyone has heard something, and just hearing something doesn't bring me any planning security," he said. A letter he sent to the regulator went unanswered. "That's the problem, you hope every day that you don't get a call from someone that says, 'Tomorrow you aren't getting any gas,'" he said. Germany's hospital association has taken up the issue on behalf of laundries like his, saying hospitals have mostly outsourced their laundry services and would run out of sheets and surgical drapes within a few days without them. The German government is working to roll out plans to cap gas prices for hard-hit businesses. The association representing smaller businesses says its understanding is that the government would focus any possible rationing on the 2,500 largest gas users in Germany and mostly spare businesses the size of Paar's. Helping ease the possibility of rationing is Europe's underground storage getting filled to 94% compared with 77% at this time last year, which energy expert Loskot-Strachota called "quite a success." A big assist has come from mild weather across Europe, with Warsaw, for example, a relatively balmy 18 degrees Celsius (64 degrees Fahrenheit) on Monday.
Germany, once heavily dependent on Russian gas, has filled storage to 97% of capacity, France to 99% and Belgium and Portugal both to 100%. That was achieved by importing record quantities of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, which comes by ship from the U.S. and Qatar instead of by pipeline from Russia, and by increasing pipeline supplies from Norway and Azerbaijan. The scramble to line up more LNG has led to a backup of tankers off the coast of Spain, a major processor, as orders collide with reduced demand and limited capacity at the country's import terminals, which turn boatloads of supercooled LNG back into gas that then flows to homes and businesses. Spanish gas company Enagas warned last week that it may have to delay or stop tankers from unloading LNG because its storage was almost full. Vessel positioning maps showed at least seven LNG tankers anchored close to Spanish shores Tuesday, though it wasn't clear how many were waiting to unload.
Despite an abundance of LNG and falling prices, Loskot-Strachota said the energy situation remains volatile. She warns that prices for gas to be delivered in December and the 2023 winter months are higher than prices now. Russian gas has dwindled to a trickle through pipelines in Ukraine and under the Black Sea to Turkey, but losing even the small amount that remains could roil markets. Moscow has blamed the reductions on technical reasons or a refusal to pay in rubles, while European leaders call it blackmail for supporting Ukraine. EU governments also have been working on proposals including buying gas as a bloc or limiting price swings to ease the energy crisis, although the measures would largely affect next year's purchases. Gas use is down 15% in Europe, but that is mostly from factories simply abandoning production that has become unprofitable. "This is dangerous — this hurts the economy, this hurts Europe," Loskot-Strachota said. Whether households will join businesses in cutting back by lowering thermostats and turning off lights cannot be determined until the cold weather comes in earnest. Russia's willingness to destroy Ukrainian heating and electrical plans shows that Russia is ready to escalate despite battlefield defeats. The market also is less flexible because gas reserves will be increasingly used as day-to-day base fuel for heating and generating electricity, rather than as a "swing" fuel during times of peak demand such as cold snaps. "Every event, every problem, weather problem, Russia problem, becomes a factor which sends prices very very high," Loskot-Strachota said. "I'm very happy that we're in a calm situation now, but it is nothing that will last for the whole winter."

French, German leaders meet in Paris amid diverging views
Associated Press/October 26/2022
French President Emmanuel Macron met Wednesday with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Paris, amid divergences between the two neighbors and key European Union allies over EU strategy, defense and economic policies. Macron and Scholz were having a working lunch at the Elysee presidential palace, during which they would discuss the situation in Ukraine. French government spokesman Olivier Veran said Scholz' s visit shows both countries' ability "sometimes to be able to get over difficulties ... when the priorities of one country do not necessarily converge with the priorities of the other."
"The strength of the French-German couple is to always be able to get along together and move Europe forward," he added. Initially, a French-German joint Cabinet meeting had been scheduled as well, but it was postponed until January. The governments in Paris and Berlin both said they still have work to do to reach consensus on some bilateral issues. French-German divergences are not unusual. The countries, home to the eurozone's biggest economies, are used to having different stances on defense, energy and other topics. "My wish has always been to preserve European unity and also the friendship and the alliance between France and Germany," Macron said last week in Brussels before an EU meeting. "I think it's not good for Germany nor for Europe that it isolates itself," he added. Asked Friday about the apparent tensions, Scholz said that cooperation with France is "very intensive" and stressed that he holds frequent meetings with Macron. "There are questions on which we have common points of view and drive things forward," he said. "You can see, for example, that it is Germany and France who repeatedly look at how we can achieve progress to support Ukraine."
"There are also questions that we are discussing, that in some cases have been under debate for years and need to be pushed forward," Scholz said. French-German government meetings are usually held at least once a year to coordinate policies. The last one was held in May 2021 via videoconference due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Elysee downplayed the delay, citing scheduling problems because some ministers were not available, and key bilateral issues that needed "a little more time" to be discussed in order to reach "ambitious" agreements. Scholz's spokesman, Steffen Hebestreit, said last week that "there are a whole series of different topics that are currently occupying us. I don't know whether there are snags but it's not yet the case that we've reached a united stance." Berlin and Paris have a decades-long history of bilateral irritants and European disputes that coexist with the countries' friendship and cooperation. France and Germany have been described as the "motor" of the EU. They have always found compromises even in difficult terrain since they co-founded, with four other countries, the forerunner of the EU in 1957. They will celebrate in January the 60th anniversary of the Elysee Treaty that set the tone for the two countries' relations after centuries of fierce rivalry and bloody conflict. Last week, as EU leaders were seeking a deal to make sure the runaway cost of gas doesn't further tank struggling EU economies, Germany and France were in opposing camps — Berlin expressing doubts and holding off plans for a price cap, while most others wanted to push on. Scholz said any dispute was on the method, not the goal. Before that, France and other EU countries expressed criticism over the lack of coordination from Germany about its 200-billion-euro ($199 billion) subsidy plan to help households and businesses cope with high energy prices.
Defense also has been a recurrent issue, with Paris considering Berlin was not doing enough in the area for years — until the war in Ukraine led Germany to announce a major boost to military spending. Earlier this month, fifteen countries agreed on German-led plans for an improved European air defense system, the so-called European Sky Shield Initiative. France did not join the project. The French Mamba system is already part of NATO's integrated air and missile defense.

Russia fires rockets at Ukraine, renews 'dirty bomb' claims
Associated Press/October 26/2022
Russia targeted more than 40 villages around Ukraine over the past day, Ukrainian officials said Wednesday, killing at least two people and sustaining the terror that forces people into air raid shelters each night. Russian forces launched five rockets, 30 air strikes and more than 100 multiple-launch rocket system attacks on Ukrainian targets, the Ukrainian armed forces general staff said. The attacks come as fears are growing that Russia, facing setbacks on the battlefield, could try to detonate a device that uses explosives to scatter radioactive waste in an effort to sow terror. Russia's defense minister called his counterparts from India and China to convey Moscow's concern about a purported Ukrainian plan to use such a so-called "dirty bomb," repeating an allegation that Ukraine and the West have strongly refuted. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu voiced Moscow's concern about "possible Ukrainian provocations involving a 'dirty bomb'" in the calls with his Indian counterpart, Rajnath Singh, and China's Wei Fenghe, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.
The conversations followed Shoigu's calls with British, French, Turkish and U.S. counterparts Sunday in which he made the same claim. Britain, France, and the United States rejected that claim as "transparently false." Despite the Western dismissal of the Russian claims, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov insisted that "we have the information that there is an ongoing preparation in Ukraine for such a terror attack.""We will continue to energetically inform the global community about what we know to persuade it to take action to prevent such irresponsible action by the regime in Kyiv," Peskov told reporters. A Ukrainian official reported Wednesday that a Russian strike hit a gas station in the city of Dnipro, killing two people, including a pregnant woman. The governor of the Dnipropetrovsk region, Valentyn Reznichenko, said four people wounded were hospitalized. Mykolaiv, a southern port city near the war's front line, is among the places where residents have lined up to receive rations of bread and canned food as increases in food prices and losses of income add to the war-time burdens of low-income households in Ukraine. Several buildings and neighborhoods were struck in Mykolaiv on Tuesday, though it was still unclear if there were any casualties, according to local authorities. Missiles continued early Wednesday morning. The sole food distribution point in Mykolaiv allows each person to receive free bread once every three days. Many must walk long distances to collect the essential food items for their family.
"Bread and canned food is all I eat. It's almost winter already, and it's terrifying," Anna Bilousova, 70, said. For 74-year-old Olena Motuzko, getting the food is an ordeal because she has a disabled husband she must leave alone for hours at a time. Others are trying to survive by going underground at night.
A 73-year-old woman spends her days in her home, cooking and washing, and every evening around 6 p.m. heads underground to a small makeshift sleeping area in a basement with several members of her family. She has been doing that every night since the war began in late February. Valentyna, who asked that her last name not be used for security reasons, leaves her home unwillingly but heads into the shelter out of fear of the strikes that hit almost evening night, describing the sound of incoming attacks as "very scary.""My nervous system can't cope with it," said, sitting in her makeshift bedroom. In the shelter, she and her family members count the blasts they hear and then check their phones to learn where they hit.

Report finds sanctioned Syrians benefit from UN contracts
Associated Press/October 26/2022
The United Nations has procured tens of millions of dollars in contracts with companies linked to Syrian government-backed individuals sanctioned for human rights abuses, according to a report by two non-governmental groups. Syria's uprising turned civil war that started in 2011 has killed hundreds of thousands and displaced half the country's pre-war population of 23 million. More than 80% of Syrians now live in poverty, leaving much of the population dependent on humanitarian assistance. Syrian President Bashar Assad, with military support from Russia, Iran and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has since been able to reclaim much of the country. But Syria continues to spiral from a crippling economic crisis. Recently, a cholera outbreak that has infected some 20,000 people, underscored the scope of the crisis. A report analyzing the U.N.'s top 100 suppliers in Syria in 2019 and 2020 by the non-profit Observatory of Political and Economic Networks and the non-governmental organization Syrian Legal Development Program concluded that almost half of the procured contracts those two years were with suppliers that were involved in human rights abuses or may have profited from them. The report was published on Tuesday. Almost a quarter of contracts the U.N. procured those two years went to companies owned or partially owned by individuals sanctioned by the United States, United Kingdom or European Union for human rights abuses, worth a total of around $68 million. Among them is Fadi Saqr, who is close to Assad and heads the National Defense Forces in Damascus, a pro-government militia that notably executed dozens of blindfolded prisoners in 2013 and buried them in a mass grave near the Syrian capital. The U.N. told The Associated Press that they were aware of the report and will comment on its findings soon.
"U.N. agencies' processes fall short of full due diligence," Eyad Hamid, a senior researcher at the Syrian Legal Development Program, told the AP. "They also rely on cross checking the legal ownership of a company instead of the ultimate beneficiary ownership of the company."
Advocacy groups have accused the Syrian government and affiliates of withholding or siphoning off aid from families in opposition-held areas or manipulating exchange rates to boost state coffers.
"We understand that aid cannot be delivered in Syria cost-free. ... The question to me is about how we can minimize that cost," Karam Shaar, Syria program manager at the Observatory of Political and Economic Networks told the AP. "I think it's now well-established that the cost of doing business through the U.N. in regime-held Syria is by far the highest compared to aid provided by other organizations in other controlled areas." Shaar says that while aid in some cases can only be channeled through U.N. agencies, donor states ought to divert funding to international NGOs that abide by unilateral sanctions, notably by the U.S. and Britain. "While the U.N. says they don't abide by unilateral sanctions, NGOs are accountable to the countries they're based in," Shaar explained. The AP last week published the results of an investigation showing that the U.N. World Health Organization's Syria representative in Damascus mismanaged millions of dollars and plied government officials with gifts, including computers, gold coins and cars.

Herzog invited to address Congress as Israel turns 75
Associated Press/October 26/2022
Israeli President Isaac Herzog has been invited to address a joint meeting of Congress as Israel prepares to celebrate the 75th anniversary of its founding, which congressional leaders called a "historic and joyous milestone." House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., issued the invitation to Herzog in a joint letter Tuesday. They said the two nations have shared "an unbreakable bond rooted in common security, shared values, and friendship."The date for Herzog's address has not been set. The State of Israel was proclaimed on May 14, 1948. President Harry S. Truman recognized the new nation the same day. In their letter, Pelosi and Schumer said Truman's swift action "has always been a point of pride for our Country.""Across the decades, the United States Congress has been proud to stand in solidarity with Israel on a bipartisan and bicameral basis," Pelosi and Schumer wrote. "It is our hope that the Congress will have the opportunity to hear from you at this historic and joyous milestone in the success of the State of Israel and the U.S.-Israel alliance." Herzog began a two-day visit to Washington on Tuesday, meeting with Pelosi and with Secretary of State Antony Blinken among other U.S. officials. He was scheduled to meet with President Joe Biden on Wednesday.

Israel detains alleged Palestinian militants in West Bank
Agence France Presse/October 26/2022
Israel on Wednesday detained three alleged members of the Lions' Den militant group in the occupied West Bank, the army said, including the brother of a key Palestinian militant. The arrest of Muhammad al-Nabulsi and two others in Nablus comes a day after five Palestinians were killed during an Israeli military operation in the city. "Muhammad Al-Nabulsi was suspected of possessing weapons, manufacturing explosive devices and involvement in the 'Lions' Den' terrorist group," the army said in a statement. His brother Ibrahim al-Nabulsi, nicknamed "The Lion of Nablus", was shot dead by Israeli forces in August and has since become a folk hero among Palestinian youth. The Lions' Den has emerged in recent months alongside a sharp rise in raids by Israeli forces in the northern West Bank. The three arrests on Wednesday follow the killing on Tuesday of Wadih al-Houh, described by Israel as the head of the Lions' Den, and four other Palestinians in Nablus. A further 20 Palestinians were wounded in the Israeli operation, the Palestinian health ministry said. In addition to regular raids, the Israeli army has imposed additional checkpoints around Nablus over the past two weeks which have severely impeded daily life.
The closures follow the killing of an Israeli soldier in the area on October 11, three days after a military policewoman was shot dead in Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem. So far this month 25 Palestinians have been killed in east Jerusalem and the West Bank, territories occupied by Israel since the 1967 Six-Day War.

UK leader Sunak faces opposition in Parliament for 1st time
Associated Press/October 26/2022
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is holding the first meeting of his new Cabinet before facing the opposition in Parliament on Wednesday for the first time as leader. Sunak took office on Tuesday and appointed a government mixing allies with experienced ministers from the governments of his two immediate predecessors, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, as he tries to tackle Britain's multiple economic problems. Sunak's office said the lineup "effects a unified party" and aims to ensure "that at this uncertain time, there is continuity at the heart of government."But during the regular House of Commons session known as Prime Minister's Questions, opposition politicians are likely to focus on the baggage the new ministers carry from the governments of Johnson – who quit in July after a slew of ethics scandals – and Truss, whose government lasted just seven weeks. A package of unfunded tax cuts Truss unveiled last month spooked financial markets with the prospect of ballooning debt, drove the pound to record lows and forced the Bank of England to intervene — weakening Britain's fragile economy and obliterating Truss' authority within the Conservative Party. Sunak is seen by Conservatives as a safe pair of hands they hope can stabilize an economy sliding toward recession — and stem the party's plunging popularity. Sunak brought in people from different wings of the Conservative Party for his Cabinet. He removed about a dozen members of Truss' government but kept several senior figures in place, including Foreign Secretary James Cleverly and Defense Secretary Ben Wallace. He faces a backlash for reappointing Home Secretary Suella Braverman, who resigned last week after breaching ethics rules by sending a sensitive government email from a private account. She used her resignation letter to criticize Truss, hastening the then-prime minister's demise. A leading light of the Conservatives' right wing who infuriates liberals, Braverman is tasked with fulfilling a controversial, stalled plan to send some asylum-seekers arriving in Britain on a one-way trip to Rwanda. Opponents expressed astonishment that Braverman could be back in her job less than a week after her resignation and before an investigation of her breach of the ethics rules. Cleverly defended the choice. "People make mistakes in their work," he told the BBC. "No one goes to work with the intention of making a mistake." Sunak also kept in place Treasury chief Jeremy Hunt, whom Truss appointed two weeks ago to steady the markets. His removal likely would have set off new tremors. Hunt is scheduled to set out soon how the government plans to come up with billions of pounds (dollars) to fill a fiscal hole created by soaring inflation and a sluggish economy, and exacerbated by Truss' destabilizing plans.The government has not confirmed whether Hunt's statement, due on Oct. 31, will be delayed because of the change of prime minister.

UK Treasury chief delays detailing new economic plans
Associated Press/October 26/2022
U.K. Treasury chief Jeremy Hunt on Wednesday delayed his much-anticipated economic statement until Nov. 17, giving new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak a chance to weigh in on policies meant to stabilize the country's finances after his predecessor's tax-cutting plans triggered market upheaval.
The statement will now include a full budget and analysis of its impact on government debt and borrowing by the independent Office of Budget Responsibility. It was originally set to be announced on Halloween. "I want to confirm that it will demonstrate debt falling over the medium term, which is really important for people to understand," Hunt said in a pooled broadcast clip. "But it's also extremely important that that statement is based on the most accurate possible economic forecasts and forecasts of public finances." Hunt's announcement comes a day after Sunak took office, replacing former Prime Minister Liz Truss after she was forced to step down after just six weeks.Truss' decision to announce 105 billion pounds ($116 billion) in tax cuts and spending increases without saying how she would pay for them sparked concerns about soaring public debt that drove the pound to record lows, fueled turmoil on bond markets and increased mortgage costs for millions of people. Financial markets have recovered since Hunt became Treasury chief two weeks ago and threw out most of Truss' economic plan. The British currency and government bonds held on to recent gains after the economic statement was delayed, suggesting investors are willing to give Hunt time to make sure he and Sunak agree on the new government's economic policies. The delay means the Bank of England will have to make its next interest rate decision before it knows the details of the government's tax and spending plans. The central bank is expected to raise rates for an eighth consecutive meeting on Nov. 3 as it tries to rein in inflation that is running at a 40-year high of 10.1% Hunt said he discussed the delay with Bank of England Gov. Andrew Bailey on Tuesday night.
"He understands the reason for doing that, and I'll continue to work very closely with him," Hunt said. The government is trying to restore its economic credibility and rebuild investor confidence as it faces a cost-of-living crisis, the fallout from the war in Ukraine and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Hunt has said that doing so will require both tax increases and spending cuts. Delaying the budget statement is the best way to ensure that the decisions the government makes "are ones that stand the test of time and give us the best chance of giving people security over their mortgages, over their jobs, over the cost-of-living concerns that everyone has," Hunt said. When he took charge Tuesday, Sunak acknowledged the scale of the challenge, as well as the skepticism of a British public alarmed by the state of the economy and weary of a Conservative Party soap opera that has chewed through two prime ministers in as many months. He pledged to tackle economic issues head on. "I fully appreciate how hard things are," Sunak said outside the prime minister's official residence at 10 Downing Street. "And I understand, too, that I have work to do to restore trust after all that has happened. All I can say is that I am not daunted."

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 26-27.2022
United Nations goes DEFCON 3 on Israel
Clifford D. May - - Tuesday/October 26/2022
Global bureaucrats are less angry with Putin, Xi, and Khamenei
Vladimir Putin is slaughtering Ukrainian men, women and children. Xi Jinping is committing genocide against the Muslims of East Turkistan. Ali Khamenei is murdering Iranian girls for wearing their hijabs in what he considers a provocative manner. What is the U.N. doing in response to these crises? It’s going “def con 3 on JEWISH PEOPLE.”
That quote, of course, is from a recent tweet by Kanye West. “DEFCON,” an acronym for “defense readiness condition,” is how the U.S. military indicates states of alert, ranging from 1 (the highest) to 5. Apparently, however, the performance artist who now calls himself “Ye” intended to convey that he was going on offense against Jews.
The so-called U.N. Human Rights Council is doing the same. Its so-called Commission of Inquiry (COI) is going on offense against the Middle East’s only surviving and thriving Jewish community. Indeed, the COI is funded — with Americans contributing the lion’s share — for the express purpose of demonizing and delegitimizing Israel in perpetuity.
Will Canada ban knives?
On Thursday, the COI released its second report — one was not enough! — assigning culpability for last year’s 11-day war between Israel and Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood faction that holds power in Gaza and is designated a terrorist organization by the U.S., the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada, and other nations.
The report urges U.N. members to prosecute Israeli officials for alleged violations of “international humanitarian law.” What does the report say about Hamas and the more than 4,000 rockets it fired at Israelis, its routine use of Palestinian civilians as “human shields,” and the support it receives from Tehran? Not a word. “Hamas,” “rockets” and “terrorism” are not mentioned.
Israelis are protesting the report as they have protested such slanders in the past and will in the future. They’re also reminding anyone who will listen — not a large cohort — that one of the COI’s prominent members, Miloon Kothari, has questioned why Israel is “even a member of the United Nations.”

البرتو فرنندس/موقع ميمري/الأضرار الجانبية التي تصيب السياسة الخارجية الأمريكية
America's Self-Inflicted Foreign Policy Collateral Damage
Alberto M. Fernandez/MEMRI Daily Brief No. 424/October 26/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/113023/113023/
Assuming nuclear war is averted – a big "if" – the United States has done rather well out of the Russia-Ukraine War. While one hesitates to predict the outcome of an ongoing, long, and grinding conflict, Russia has paid a heavy price at the hands of a Ukraine empowered by the bravery of its own soldiers and an ocean of, mostly American, arms and money. Despite failing to actually deter Russia's attack, the Biden Administration's use of its financial power, both to punish and to reward, has been impressive. While much of the world has been ambivalent about the conflict, the United States and its closest allies have embraced the cause of Ukraine.
Even though American leadership is often confused and arrogant, and the United States is beset with myriad internal problems, the ability of the United States to project raw power through a combination of weapons and military power, hegemony over the global financial system, and influence on multilateral institutions is still very real. All three of these elements of national power have been on graphic display in the Ukraine War.
But there is a challenge when everything is seen through the lens of one issue. Recently, President Zelensky bitterly lambasted Israel for not providing him with the latest Israeli missile defense to use against Russian (and Iran-facilitated) airstrikes. It is, of course, completely understandable that someone involved in a brutal war would be so insistent. For the United States to see bilateral relations so narrowly seems to be reckless and American decision-making today driven by the Russia-Ukraine Conflict will have unforeseen consequences elsewhere now and in the near future.
Washington tried to ease sanctions on bitter anti-American regimes in Venezuela and Iran in the hopes that this would translate into more energy on the global market and hurt Russia. Rewarding the dictators Maduro and Khamenei was considered acceptable "collateral damage" in the struggle against Moscow. Washington's concerns about human rights in those countries also seemed to matter less if somehow their oil production could lower energy prices.
One part of the anti-Russia effort is, of course, expanding NATO with the addition of Finland and Sweden. Here we have seen the abasement of NATO to appease Turkey, which needs to sign off on Sweden's entry into the alliance. The West needs Turkey and Turkey knows it. Erdoğan sells attack drones to Ukraine but also is helpful to Russia in various ways. Turkey has doubled its imports of Russian oil in 2022. Turkey has also been for years very helpful to Iran, Russia's ally, in evading Western sanctions. Ankara's state-owned BOTAS pipeline company recently reached an agreement with the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) to increase gas imports. The two countries are sometimes competitors, for example in the Caucasus, but have also found ways to collaborate on money and energy. Both countries embrace a national rhetoric that is deeply anti-Western and anti-American, of course.
Turkey knowing that it is desperately needed on Ukraine emboldens it on other issues, from Libya to Greece to Syria to Armenia to internal repression and demagoguery carried out by Erdoğan in hopes of remaining in power.
If America has decided to tread carefully with Turkey because of Ukraine, Washington seems to want to go in the opposite direction, to be openly aggressive and obnoxious, when it comes to Saudi Arabia. Incredibly, the Biden Administration sought to portray something that Saudi-led OPEC has always done – try to maintain oil prices higher rather than lower for the sake of OPEC members' bottom line – as a pro-Russian action.
Incredibly, we have seen the Biden Administration baiting Saudi Arabia almost from the beginning (and even before the Administration came to power) in 2021 followed by a brief, painfully awkward, effort at reconciliation in 2022 due to the global energy crisis. Biden's trip to Saudi Arabia was preceded by a vitriolic anti-Saudi screed in the Washington Post and by the ridiculous controversy over whether the president would shake hands or even meet with the Saudi crown prince.
The reconciliation was a very brief one and we are now back to Biden threatening the Saudis with consequences as a result of OPEC price stabilization policies of long standing. Not surprisingly, the Saudis (and others) in the region feel that Washington, especially under the Democrats, cannot be trusted and will look to diversify their relationships and their security connections with other powers. America does not "give" Saudi Arabia anything, it sells weapons and protection to the kingdom. Saudi Arabia in turn has been historically helpful to the United States on a host of regional issues, large and small, for years.
In an ironic twist for a Democratic Administration that came in boasting about how it would be so different from the idiosyncratic and personalized policies of the larger-than-life Trump, America's confrontation with Saudi Arabia seems deeply personal, vindictive, and short-sighted, just the type of language critics liked to use about former President Trump. We seem to be on the verge of future punitive steps by Washington against the Saudis which the Saudis cannot and will not accept supinely without responding. This is the same DC crowd that crowed "diplomacy is back!" in February 2021 at the State Department.
Saudi Arabia's Investment Minister Khalid Al-Falih recently stated that Washington and Riyadh have too many shared interests and that they will get over their "unwarranted" spat over oil prices and that seems to be the kingdom's clear intention. Saudi investments in the U.S. are massive and include over $130 billion in U.S. treasury bills and bonds. If escalation does come, it seems that it will be from an imperial Washington that somehow feels empowered and entitled only a year after an embarrassing debacle in Afghanistan.
Absent a nuclear confrontation, there will be life, and diplomacy, after the war in Ukraine ends. Coddling anti-Western Erdoğan and alienating American ally Saudi Arabia are reckless moves that hurt American interests. A narrowly Ukraine-obsessed Washington is making decisions worldwide that could ultimately prove very costly in other conflicts and bilateral relationships for years to come.
*Alberto M. Fernandez is Vice President of MEMRI.
https://www.memri.org/reports/americas-self-inflicted-foreign-policy-collateral-damage?fbclid=IwAR1-UNSj2XgrmMvbJYypU2w9EwiFP3gGBNEajzM5N0ShdfYWonpTfRLeaBQ

Washington and the Middle East: Naivety or Conspiracy?
Nadim Koteich/Asharq Al Awsat/October, 26/2022
The maritime border demarcation agreement between Lebanon and Israel, which was brokered by the US and approved by Hezbollah and was followed by Nouri al-Maliki (Iran’s man in Iraq) managing to bring his prime ministerial candidate to office after having benefited from Muqtada al-Sadr’s “exit” from political life and concluded a deal with Masoud Barazani and the Sunni Arab group (-Khanjar -Halbousi), triggered an avalanche of nightmarish analyses that see these two developments as glimpses of a deal between the US and Iran that entails Iraq and Lebanon being handed over to Iran along the lines in which Afghanistan had been handed over to the Taliban.
Reflection on Iran’s behavior leads us to conclude that Tehran, in light of the growing recognition in the West that the nuclear deal is on its deathbed, is preparing for a new era of confrontation with Washington. These clashes will be fought by proxy in the Middle East (and beyond), and the aim is to dismantle the strategic architecture beneficial to Washington in the wide circle around Iran.
In Iraq, Iran appears to have regained the initiative after over two and a half years of setbacks that have undermined its influence in Iraq- beginning with the assassination of the commander of the Quds Force in the Iranian “Revolutionary Guard” Qassem Soleimani in early 2020 and culminating with the formation of an Iraqi government headed by Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, which was born out of the mass protests against Iranian influence in Iraq.
Iran worked along two lines to break down the status quo that had been emerging and rebuild the dynamics of its influence. After all its attempts at co-opting Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr failed, Iran decided to end him. It did so by having Ayatollah Kazem Al-Haeri retire from his role as a spiritual leader) and ask his followers (virtually all Sadrists follow him) to follow Ali Khamenei instead, which drove Muqtada to retire from politics after bloody and chaotic scenes in Baghdad. In parallel, the IRGC was launching ballistic missiles and sporadic raids on Kurdistan in order to break the Kurds’ resistance and the alliance between Masoud Barazani and Muqtada al-Sadr. Indeed, they went as far as placing IRGC on the Iranian border with Iraqi Kurdistan under the pretext that Erbil was supporting the Kurdish nucleus of the popular movement that has been ongoing in Iran for over a month.
The result: Iran imposed the appointment of a figure aligned with it as Iraqi prime minister, affirmed that Muqtada al-Sadr had been broken, and began the journey of restoring its hegemony over Baghdad until further notice.
In Yemen, escalation intensified as the Houthis, operating under Iranian orders, went from undermining attempts at renewing the truce to attacking the port of Al-Dabbah and Al-Nashima in Hadhramaut and Shabwa and threatening Saudi and Emirati oil facilities, suggesting that the Yemen conflict, in its regional dimensions, could be reignited. Disregarding the political agreements and reference points for a solution in Yemen, the Houthis are insisting that the legitimate government pay the salaries of all “state employees” without exception (including the civil, military, and security forces with de facto control) and that the Port of Hodeida and Sanaa Airport be allowed to operate legally.
Their obstinance reflects nothing more than Iran’s determination to maintain the gains of the Houthi coup and exacerbate the political tensions around Yemen in order to exploit them during the upcoming period of escalation. Noticeably, the Houthis’ threats coincide with equivalents issued by Iran, especially against Saudi Arabia. These threats come after Iran made ridiculous accusations that Riyadh is behind the mass protests that have broken out in response to Mahsa Amini’s murder by the so-called morality police.
In this same context of getting its affairs in order in preparation for the upcoming period of escalation, Iran brokered a reconciliation between Hamas and the Assad regime at a critical time for the future of the leadership of the Palestinian Liberation Organization and Palestinian Authority as serious talks regarding the post-Mahmoud Abbas era have begun.
It forced Hamas, or at least one of its wings, to present a humiliating and degrading scene in Damascus as a Hamas official called its stance in support of the Syrian people’s revolution a “rogue step that had not been approved by the leadership!” This would not have been possible if Iran had not mastered the art of playing on the contradictions of the Palestinian scene. It increased its support for Islamic Jihad, especially through the latest battle in Gaza, which Islamic Jihad had imposed and Hamas stayed out of. Hamas also realized, inevitably, that Iran is helping Islamic Jihad expand toward the West Bank by backing it with supplies and tools that establish a link between Islamic Jihad and armed groups of youths. The most prominent of these groups is Lion’s Den, which operates in Nablus; though the majority of its members come from families associated with Fatah, it is financially and tactically linked to Islamic Jihad.
Through this blend of ties and others, Iran is preparing to take back the reins in Palestine and restore its influence there at a time when the Iranian project has been suffering massive setbacks both at home and abroad.
In the Ukrainian war, Iran found an avenue for renewing the reputation of its project as one set against global imperialism and American insolence, getting involved in the war by supplying the Russian army with drones that have so far been used to strike civilian facilities. National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby affirmed that “Iranian military personnel were on the ground in Crimea and assisted Russia in these operations” and that “Russian military personnel that are based in Crimea have been piloting Iranian UAVs using them to conduct strikes across Ukraine, including strikes against Kyiv.”
In addition to its benefits on morale, Iran’s support for Russia in its war on Ukraine has worried several players in the Middle East, especially Israel, which depends on agreements with Russia that requires close cooperation to launch its strikes on Iranian forces and Iranian militias in Syria.
In this context, Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid recently expressed his “deep concern” regarding the military ties between Russia and Iran during a call with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, stressing that “Israel stands with the Ukrainian people.”
The capitals of the Gulf share Israel’s apprehension regarding the invigoration of ties between Iran and Russia and the new regional balances it could imply. Indeed, the military, security, and political ramifications would affect every explosive issue in the region.
More dangerous than the nightmare of a deal between the US and Iran is the fact that the US lacks a strategic vision for how to manage the conflicts raging in the region and an accurate understanding of the security balance in the Middle East- not just for the interests of the players concerned but those of the US first and foremost. Iran is preparing for a new round of clashes with Washington and to undermine its influence in the Middle East as Washington clashes with its natural allies.
In most cases, stupidity is more dangerous than conspiracy!

Do Americans Have the Right to Boycott Israel?
Robert Ford/Asharq Al Awsat/October, 26/2022
In the midst of serious violence in the West Bank, the top United Nations human rights body issued a report on October 20 that concluded that the Israeli occupation appeared illegal under international law because the Israeli government is trying to make it permanent with the establishment of settlements. The UN experts urged that the International Court of Justice at the Hague offer its opinion on the occupation.
At the same time, another angle of the Israel-Palestinian conflict may go to the American Supreme Court. The American Civil Liberties Union, a private organization that works to protect American citizens’ civil rights, said on October 20 that it would ask the Supreme Court to cancel an American state’s law that penalizes American companies that refuse to pledge to ignore calls to boycott Israel. There are 35 American states (out of 50) that have laws that forbid any state government contracts or investment with private companies that boycott Israel or the occupied territories. Human Rights Watch in 2019 urged that states to cancel anti-boycott laws that penalize companies that want to end their involvement in the Israeli occupation. Human Rights Watch issued this recommendation after the popular American tourism lodging company AirBnB said in 2018 that would stop listing properties for rent in Israeli settlements. The Israeli government urged American state governments to intervene and major states including Illinois, Texas and Florida retaliated against AirBnB. The company had to retreat from its position.
Similarly, this month after pressure from the states of New York, Texas and Illinois, the American company Unilever sold to an Israeli company the license rights to make a popular brand of ice cream that the company had decided not to sell in the West Bank. American foreign policy analyst Steven Cook, a researcher at the Brookings Institute, wrote in May 2022 that despite occasional noise from some university campuses, Israel and the anti-boycott movement in the United States has won. Major American companies have big, important commercial relations with Israeli firms that they will maintain. The influence of the anti-boycott movement is strong in Washington and the states. According to a Pew Research public opinion survey in 2022, 84 percent of Americans know little or nothing about the boycott-Israel movement, and only five percent support it.
In this difficult climate, why is the American Civil Liberties Union urging the American Supreme Court to take a case about the anti-boycott law in the state of Arkansas now? The reason is that the organization perceives that these laws represent a serious threat to American citizens’ freedom of speech. In its October 20 announcement, the American Civil Liberties Union reminded that commercial boycotts are part of American history. In their revolution against Britain 250 years ago Americans boycotted British products to put pressure on London to accept American independence. In the United States in the 1960s the Supreme Court issued a decision about the boycott by black American civil rights organizations against businesses in the state of Mississippi that discriminated against black citizens. The Supreme Court decided that boycotts were a kind of political expression protected under the Constitution. Is this right safe in view of anti-boycott laws?
The case the American Civil Liberties Union is bringing now comes from a local newspaper in the state of Arkansas that wanted a contract for advertising from the local state university. Before it could finalize the contract, the state of Arkansas followed its law and required the newspaper to pledge it would not boycott Israel. The editor of the newspaper, who is a conservative, objected as a matter of principle. He mentioned that his newspaper focuses on local news in a town in Arkansas. Why, he asked, does he need to make a pledge about the Middle East which is far from Arkansas and not the concern of the newspaper? He insisted that the newspaper is not boycotting anyone but the government has no right to compel his newspaper to follow a political line or whether to choose to implement a boycott or not.
The editor commented that he didn’t blame the Israeli government for doing everything it can to protect Israeli interests, but he expected American politicians to push to defend American citizens’ rights. Working with lawyers from the American Civil Liberties Union, the editor won his case against the anti-boycott law in the initial court but the state government appealed to the higher court. Earlier in October that higher court issued a judgement that a boycott is a private commercial action and therefore is not political expression, thus confirming the Arkansas anti-boycott law. Now the case may go to the highest court which will decide if boycotting Israel is a free political decision in America or not.

Iran crackdown may burnish Raisi's credentials for top job
Michael Georgy and Tom Perry/Reuters/October 26/2022
DUBAI, Oct 25 (Reuters) - By tightening curbs on women's rights, President Ebrahim Raisi has boosted his hardline credentials and possibly his prospects of becoming Iran's Supreme Leader, even at the cost of provoking mass protests and driving a wedge between many Iranians and the ruling elite, three analysts and a pro-reform official said.
A year after Raisi's election marked the end of what many Iranians recall as more pragmatic, tolerant times, his government's tougher enforcement of hijab wearing in the weeks before Mahsa Amini's death in custody on Sept. 16 reflected a full reassertion of hardline influence.
Now, as tens of thousands of protesters call for the Islamic Republic's downfall in response to Amini's death, the hardliners appear to be doubling down, backing their ally Raisi's use of force against the demonstrations, even if policy rests firmly in the hands of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The backdrop is what analysts and insiders close to Iran's decision-makers see as the determination of Khamenei, 83, to shore up the pillars of the Islamic Republic he has led since the death of its founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, in 1989.
Raisi, an outspoken champion of Iran's system of clerical rule, is widely seen by ordinary Iranians, foreign experts and clerical insiders as a contender to succeed Khamenei, even though he has not publicly declared that ambition. The supreme leader has not endorsed a successor and others are also seen to be in the picture, most notably Khamenei's son Mojtaba.
"Raisi truly believes in the supreme leader's revolutionary agenda. He is a hardliner who believes in stricter social and political limitations," said a pro-reform official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the political sensitivities.
"I don't know whether he has personal ambitions to become the next supreme leader, but whether he succeeds the leader or not, let me underline that Raisi himself is an anti-Western cleric that does not believe in a freer society."
Reuters could not reach officials at the offices of Raisi and Khamenei for comment.
A Khamenei protege, Raisi was elected president in June 2021 in a tightly managed race that brought all branches of the state under hardline control after years of more pragmatic government under ex-president Hassan Rouhani.
Raisi is trusted by the elite Revolutionary Guards, a hardline military force used by the state to violently crush political unrest over the decades, and seen by Iranians as an influential voice in determining the succession to Khamenei.
Appointed by Khamenei to the high-profile job of judiciary chief in 2019, Raisi was placed under U.S. sanctions a few months later over the role he allegedly played in the executions of thousands of political prisoners in 1988. Iran has never acknowledged the killings. Asked about the deaths at a June 2021 news conference, Raisi replied that a judge or prosecutor who defended people's security should be praised.
'HIJAB AND CHASTITY'
An order by Raisi in July that authorities must enforce Iran's "hijab and chastity law" resulted in more restrictions, such as women being banned from entering some banks, government offices and some forms of public transportation.
Then in Tehran, on Sept. 13, morality police arrested Amini - an Iranian Kurd - for "inappropriate attire". Three days later, she died in a hospital in the capital after falling into a coma. Referring to the day Amini collapsed in custody, the coroner said she had briefly regained consciousness but that "cardio-respiratory resuscitation was ineffective in the first critical minute, resulting in brain damage."
The family deny the 22-year-old had any heart problems.
Women have torn off and burned headscarves during the protests ignited by her death, one of the boldest popular revolts since the 1979 revolution and a symbolic blow against the Islamic Republic, which has sought to impose conservative dress codes on women in public.
"While succession is always in the background of Iranian politics, I view the intensified focus on hijab, which began in earnest this summer, as more a reflection of the unification of hardline power," said Henry Rome of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank.
The stepped up enforcement under Raisi marked a break not only with Rouhani's times, but also the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was known as a hardliner on many issues but resisted strict imposition of dress codes.
"Khamenei is preparing. He wants to leave a legacy, and his legacy should be a strengthening of the Islamic Republic, which translates into a hardening of its internal fabric," said Cornelius Adebahr of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
While the protests have triggered questions over the hijab enforcement policy from some officials - Khamenei adviser Ali Larijani notably asked whether police should be imposing the headscarf at all - hardliners have been unbending.
Interior minister Ahmad Vahidi, a former Revolutionary Guards' commander, has accused protesters of creating "hideous scenes" in the name of women's rights, saying protesters saw "freedom in the nakedness and shamelessness of women".
The Guards are expected to have a big say over the succession, with the next supreme leader more reliant on their support in the face of anti-government dissent, said Kasra Aarabi, Iran Programme Lead at the Tony Blair Institute.
'RAISI GET LOST'
The Guards are also likely to play a major role if Iran decides on all-out repression of the unrest, in which more than 200 people have already been killed, according to rights groups.
But the succession has complicated the leadership's thinking about how tough a crackdown needs to be, since the start of the unrest coincided with rumours about Khamenei's ailing health, three analysts and an official told Reuters in September.
The establishment - a dual system of clerical authority and an elected president and parliament - has been preoccupied with manoeuvring linked to the succession even as it weighs security policy.
Some insiders fear that using more force might expose divisions within its ranks while fuelling more unrest, something it can ill-afford at such a sensitive time, the analysts and official said in September.
Raisi encountered protesters' anger himself during a visit to a Tehran university this month, where female students chanted "Raisi get lost" and "Mullahs get lost".
Echoing Khamenei, Raisi has repeatedly sought to blame the West for the unrest, accusing U.S. President Joe Biden of sowing "chaos, terror, and destruction", and citing Khomeini's description of the United States as "the great satan".
On Raisi's watch, months of indirect talks between Iran and the United States in Vienna on salvaging a 2015 nuclear deal have stalled. Both sides say political decisions are required by Tehran and Washington to settle the remaining issues.
Sanctions on Iranian oil have continued to squeeze Iran's economy, driving the currency to record lows.
Meir Javedanfar, Iran Lecturer at Reichman University in Israel, said: "Raisi is taking such an extreme position on women’s rights because he knows this is what Khamenei wants."
"Following Khamenei's position on women's issue would keep him in the race to replace Khamenei."
*Additional reporting by Michael Georgy in Dubai and Tom Perry in Beirut; Writing by Tom Perry, Editing by William Maclean
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

America's 'Acute' Foreign Policy Disarray
Pete Hoekstra/Gatestone Institute/October 26, 2022
Saudi Arabia is deeply concerned... that the Iran agreement will soon be back on the table.... The Saudis quite correctly believe that that the new Iran deal, rather than stopping Iran from developing nuclear weapons, would actually pave the way to nuclear weapons, in addition to giving Iran's despotic regime up to a trillion dollars -- if the mullahs would please just not use the nuclear weapons on the Biden administration's watch.
While the grisly murder of Osama bin Laden's close friend Jamal Khashoggi was far from acceptable, the sad reality is that the Kingdom is no more guilty of unspeakable behavior than are Iran, Russia, China, North Korea, Turkey Venezuela, Qatar or a number of other nations that the Biden administration and the international community are cozying up to.
Many onlookers believe that the Saudi move is a direct signal to Biden about Saudi Arabia's concerns over the "stalled" but apparently not-quite-ended-yet nuclear deal with Iran.
Although Biden supposedly will examine all aspects of the U.S.-Saudi relationship, he threatened the kingdom with "consequences" -- reportedly by suspending arms sales -- all because Saudi Arabia is trying to defend itself from being potentially obliterated by an openly hostile Iran.
The U.S. seeks to harshly punish any country opposed to U.S. efforts for a questionable nuclear agreement that would empower Iran, and vastly enrich it and its numerous terrorist proxies, including the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Through them, Iran is already effectively in charge of four countries in addition to its own: Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq.
If the U.S. really believes Russia is an acute threat, the U.S. should act as if it is and stop propping up Russia's allies, such as Iran.
The U.S. should be working with countries in the Middle East to support efforts against Russia and Iran's regime.
No wonder questions are being raised as to just how "compromised" Biden might actually be.
The U.S. would do well to stop this foolish obsession with getting a new Iran nuclear deal. It is inconsistent with the rest of America's values, foreign policy and national security interests. Send a clear message to Russia, Iran's mullahs, Europe, the Middle East -- and, most importantly, to Iranian and American citizens -- that the Iran nuclear deal, finally, is dead.
Saudi Arabia is deeply concerned that the Iran nuclear deal will soon be back on the table, as the Biden administration seeks to harshly punish any country opposed to U.S. efforts for a questionable nuclear agreement that would empower Iran, and vastly enrich it and its numerous terrorist proxies. Pictured: U.S. President Joe Biden and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the Jeddah Security and Development Summit, in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on July 16, 2022. (Photo by Mandel Ngan/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)
The confusion and lack of clarity in the current administration's foreign policies are growing ever more dangerous for US national security.
President Joe Biden's recently released National Security Strategy labels Russia as an "acute" threat to U.S. national security. Yet the administration continues, with the support and encouragement of the EU, its futile attempt to restart the Iran nuclear deal, using Russia as its proxy negotiator. One can only wonder how the Biden administration believes the U.S. can negotiate this type of agreement using a nation we actually recognize and label an acute threat to work out the details with a nation—Iran—we label as a "persistent threat."
Not only is Iran an ally of Russia, it is also a strong backer of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and can therefore quite possibly be an enemy combatant. Iran has been providing Russia with "kamikaze drones," training and military advisors, all the while helping Russia to evade international sanctions imposed in the wake of its Ukraine invasion. Iran is also in the process of transferring ballistic missiles to Russia, including the Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar.
More major evidence of disarray is how the U.S. -- as it tries to play nice with the "world's biggest sponsor of state terrorism," Iran -- is undercutting relations with America's key allies in the Middle East. Not surprisingly, most Middle Eastern countries do not want to see a nuclear-armed Iran. Both Biden and the Saudi government made this point abundantly clear at their summit earlier this year. Given the unified messaged and shared strategic goals, you would think this would be case closed.
Saudi Arabia is deeply concerned, all the same, that the Iran agreement will soon be back on the table. Despite U.S. Special Envoy Robert Malley's claim that, "Right now the talks on revival of JCPOA are not on the US agenda," the key words, "right now" open the door for a nuclear deal in the near future -- possibly during the government's Christmas recess, when Congress will not be in session to block a deal or ask uncomfortable questions. Already, 50 of its members – mostly Democrats from the president's own party -- under the leadership of Rep. Josh Gottheimer, sent a letter to Biden "sound[ing] the alarm" on the new Iran nuclear deal.
The Saudis are concerned about the efforts by the Biden administration to finalize a new agreement. The Saudis quite correctly believe that that the new Iran deal, rather than stopping Iran from developing nuclear weapons, would actually pave its way to nuclear weapons, in addition to giving Iran's despotic regime up to a trillion dollars -- if the mullahs would please just not use the nuclear weapons on the Biden administration's watch.
Democrats and others opposed to Saudi Arabia have seized upon the decision by OPEC+ to cut oil production by two million barrels per day to bash the Saudi's anew. While the grisly murder of Osama bin Laden's close friend Jamal Khashoggi was far from acceptable, the sad reality is that the Kingdom is no more guilty of unspeakable behavior than are Iran, Russia, China, North Korea, Turkey Venezuela, Qatar or a number of other nations that the Biden administration and the international community are cozying up to.
Many onlookers believe that the Saudi move is a direct signal to Biden about Saudi Arabia's concerns over the "stalled" but apparently not-quite-ended-yet nuclear deal with Iran.
The oil production cuts could have major price consequences at the pump both in Europe and in the U.S. The Democrat concerns over damage to the party's November 8 election prospects were so great that the Biden administration asked the Saudis to delay any cuts until after the election.
In response to the cuts, Biden conceded that his fist bump diplomacy was a failure. Although Biden supposedly will examine all aspects of the U.S.-Saudi relationship, he threatened the kingdom with "consequences" -- reportedly by suspending arms sales -- all because Saudi Arabia is trying to defend itself from being potentially obliterated by an openly hostile Iran.
Iran's proxy militia in Yemen, the Houthis -- which the Biden administration in its first days in office delisted from the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations – immediately returned the favor by attacking Saudi oil fields (here, here here and here) and launching missiles into the United Arab Emirates (here and here) . Why should the Gulf Arabs not be, to say the least, skeptical?
A deal with Iran will simply make it stronger, putting it in an even better position to assist Russia in seizing Ukraine's territory before moving on to the next targets: Moldova, Poland, the Baltic States, Central Europe, South America -- with the possible ultimate goal of unseating America.
Key energy relationships in the Middle East are being badly damaged by the possibility of a new Iran-U.S. agreement. The U.S. seeks to harshly punish any country opposed to U.S. efforts for a questionable nuclear agreement that would empower Iran, and vastly enrich it and its numerous terrorist proxies, including the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Through them, Iran is already effectively in charge of four countries in addition to its own: Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq.
The administration argues that OPEC, by cutting production, is doing the bidding of Russia. Wrong. OPEC, I would argue, is actually saving the U.S. from strengthening the growing Russia-Iran axis.
The punishment of energy producers in the Middle East will just hurt American consumers at the gas pump even more. The bottom line is that U.S. taxpayers, who are underwriting massive amounts of assistance to Ukraine, will be forced to still pay more at the pump because the Biden Administration wants an Iran nuclear deal -- with the key support of Russia.
If you are confused, it is because the Biden administration's foreign policy is confused. If the U.S. really believes Russia is an acute threat, the U.S. should act as if it is and stop propping up Russia's allies, such as Iran.
The U.S. should be working with countries in the Middle East to support efforts against Russia and Iran's regime.
No wonder questions are being raised as to just how "compromised" Biden might actually be.
The U.S. would do well to stop this foolish obsession with getting a new Iran nuclear deal. It is inconsistent with the rest of America's values, foreign policy and national security interests. Send a clear message to Russia, Iran's mullahs, Europe, the Middle East -- and, most importantly, to Iranian and American citizens -- that the Iran nuclear deal, finally, is dead.
*Peter Hoekstra was US Ambassador to the Netherlands during the Trump administration. He served 18 years in the U.S. House of Representatives representing the second district of Michigan and served as Chairman and Ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee. He is currently Chairman of the Center for Security Policy Board of Advisors and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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Protests must not divert West’s attention from Tehran’s nuclear defiance
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/October 26, 2022
While the West’s attention is focused on the protests in Iran, it must be careful not to overlook the Iranian regime’s nuclear defiance.
For over a month, the Iranian regime has been hit with demonstrations across the country. The death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini at the hands of the morality police has sparked a global outcry and a national mobilization. Reports indicate there have been protests in all 31 of Iran’s provinces, with scenes of women defiantly removing their hijabs and cutting off their hair in public, as well as crowds chanting “death to the dictator.” However, as the West seeks to find ways to address the regime’s crackdown, it is also important not to disregard Tehran’s nuclear defiance.
Time plays a critical role in nuclear negotiations. It affects the basic processes of negotiator cognition and motivation. The more a negotiating party is constrained by time, the more likely it will be ready to make concessions in order to reach an agreement. For example, in 2015, after eight years of coordinated economic sanctions between the US, EU, China and other partners had crippled Iran’s economy, with no improvements in sight and with a series concessions given to the Iranian leaders, the Islamic Republic finally agreed to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or nuclear deal.
Under the agreement with the permanent members of the UN Security Council (UK, US, France, China and Russia) plus Germany, and in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, the Iranian leadership agreed not to develop weapons-grade enriched uranium for 15 years, as well as reduce its uranium stockpile.
But one of the critical reasons the regime agreed to the deal was the financial pressure it faced. As former top US diplomat William J. Burns said: “Sanctions pressure was building and we wanted the Iranian government to feel the pain.”
Through years of coordinated, targeted and carefully designed sanctions that cut the Iranian regime out of the international financial system and even penalized third-party countries if they did not reduce their purchases of Iranian oil, Iran’s domestic economy contracted significantly. These curbs were so well designed that Iran’s oil exports fell from about 2.6 million barrels a day in 2011, to less than half that in 2014.
But now the Iranian regime most likely feels that it is in a far stronger position, both economically and militarily, than it was in 2014. This can be seen in the way the regime keeps adding to its demands in order to revive the nuclear deal.
The theocratic establishment of Iran believes it can keep buying time and advancing its nuclear program, while the US and especially the EU find themselves fighting the clock.
One of the reasons current sanctions against the Iranian regime are not as effective as in 2014 is that they are not imposed by the UN Security Council. When the US unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 under the former US administration, the White House attempted to reinstate plurilateral sanctions against Iran. But this effort failed. This left the US reimposing sanctions unilaterally since 2020.  The theocratic establishment of Iran believes it can keep buying time and advancing its nuclear program, while the US and especially the EU find themselves fighting the clock.
While the US sanctions are not without impact, they have been far less detrimental than the coordinated sanctions that were established in the run-up to the JCPOA. Moreover, not only from the perspective of the Iranian leaders, they are in a stronger position militarily and economically than they were seven years ago, Tehran believes that the West is in a far weaker position. The Iranian leaders most likely believe that the war in Ukraine, and the sanctions on Russian oil and gas, have left Europe in an especially precarious position. With winter fast approaching, Iranian leaders likely believe that their oil is going to become an increasingly powerful bargaining chip. A few weeks ago, negotiations to revive the nuclear deal went back in the deep freeze as Tehran doubled down on some of its conditions and European powers responded by saying they had reached the limits of their flexibility. As time goes on, if the West does not act immediately, it will lose more leverage as the Iranian regime inches closer to being a threshold nuclear state.
The International Atomic Energy Agency has warned that the information gap about the country’s activities is reaching dangerous levels. The IAEA added: “Iran’s decision to remove all of the agency’s equipment previously installed in Iran for surveillance and monitoring activities in relation to the JCPOA has also had detrimental implications for the agency’s ability to provide assurance of the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program.”In summary, while it is critical to hold the Iranian regime accountable for its brutal crackdown, the West must not overlook the regime’s nuclear advancements and defiance.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Iran’s drone terror goes global
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Arab News/October 26/2022
Do not dismiss Iranian drones in Russian hands, especially not as they rain fire and terror on Kyiv and cities across Ukraine almost nightly. These Iranian suicide drones — the Shahed-136, most notably, with its unmistakable shape — are a potent terror weapon.
But do not take the Iranian regime’s denials that they would ever supply such arms at face value. And understand also the escalation this represents in Iran’s global involvement in international terrorism. For a decade now, Iran has been involved in a regional campaign of militia warfare and international terrorism across the Middle East. Its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has generated, funded and led on the battlefield a multiplicity of militia groups as they fought Israel, the US, Syrian rebels, Iraqi protesters, the internationally recognized Yemeni government — and civilians who got in their way.
At some point in the past decade, Iran added a new capacity to its already bristling ballistic missile program. Along with the missiles, it started to equip its proxies across the region with drones. Martyr drones, they were called; they were cheaply made and intended to be little more than flying bombs.
This Iranian campaign was of inestimable importance. Its attacks on the Saudi and Emirati economies alone, and attacks on tankers and cargo vessels in the Arabian Gulf, cost the world economy many hundreds of millions of dollars. It made Israel feel increasingly nervous and besieged as drone and missile-armed Iranian militias appeared on both sides of the Syrian-Lebanese border.
But for many European policymakers, and even in the US, this was dismissed as a gimcrack Iranian effort using rickety technology. Something for the Arabs and the Israelis to get their act together and solve themselves. Nothing to do with us. Iran’s leaders lie about having supplied the drones, but the sale must have been signed off at the highest levels. All of this has changed in this decade. Not only has the US begun to appreciate the cost mismatch of an Iranian missile or drone worth $20,000 or as little as $200 requiring Patriot interception (each Patriot missile costing between $1 million and $3 million); it has also begun to understand that, in the Gulf and even the Mediterranean, drones can terrorize shipping to such an extent that traditional naval support might be totally insufficient. All of this has prompted new thinking in Washington — and not before time. But that is nothing compared with the lessons now being learnt as Iran arms Russia with killer drones. Each night, the European nations see Iranian drones smash into the Ukrainian power grid, subjecting millions to blackouts and water shortages. Every night brings the possibility of a slow-moving drone with a lawnmower engine crashing into an apartment building, starting a fire that will collapse the structure and kill anyone who fails to get out in time. These are savage tactics against civilian targets, and Iran entirely backs them.
Iran’s leaders lie about having supplied the drones, but the sale must have been signed off at the highest levels. Iranian trainers, possibly as many as a hundred, are in Crimea at the moment operating the drones, actively participating in the war. This not only makes Iran an arms supplier to Russia, but also makes its forces a party to the conflict. In effect, Iran has joined the small Russian-Belarusian coalition. Iran’s leaders did not do this for money. They did it as an active statement of policy and intent. They wished to signal not only the effectiveness of their technology for terror, but also their willingness to participate in that terror actively. This is something beyond even Iranian drone engineers and operators steering drones and missiles from Yemen into the Saudi oil economy, or drones from southern Iran and Iraq hitting Abu Dhabi, or harassing shipping in the Gulf. It is Iran joining a doomed war condemned by the majority of the globe, in order to prove to the world Iranian willingness to stand by its allies in committing acts of terror against civilians whom Iran has no historical reason to oppose. This is another signal of a new world that we will shortly encounter: one in which the authoritarian states will not afford each other diplomatic support, spread each other’s propaganda and vote together at the UN. Now they will join each other’s wars for no other reason than to demonstrate their capacity and willingness to terrorize civilians of a distant democracy. It is a deeply concerning precedent, and one the West must understand for what it is — and react quickly and decisively to stop and to punish.
*Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington D.C. and author of “The Rohingyas: Inside Myanmar’s Genocide” (Hurst, 2017). Twitter: @AzeemIbrahim