English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 26/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today

For this people’s heart has grown dull, and their ears are hard of hearing, and they have shut their eyes; so that they might not look with their eyes, and listen with their ears, and understand with their heart and turn and I would heal them.
Matthew 13/10-17: “Then the disciples came and asked Jesus, ‘Why do you speak to them in parables?’He answered, ‘To you it has been given to know the secrets of the kingdom of heaven, but to them it has not been given. For to those who have, more will be given, and they will have an abundance; but from those who have nothing, even what they have will be taken away. The reason I speak to them in parables is that “seeing they do not perceive, and hearing they do not listen, nor do they understand. “With them indeed is fulfilled the prophecy of Isaiah that says: “You will indeed listen, but never understand, and you will indeed look, but never perceive. For this people’s heart has grown dull, and their ears are hard of hearing, and they have shut their eyes; so that they might not look with their eyes, and listen with their ears, and understand with their heart and turn and I would heal them.” But blessed are your eyes, for they see, and your ears, for they hear.Truly I tell you, many prophets and righteous people longed to see what you see, but did not see it, and to hear what you hear, but did not hear it.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 25-26/2021
If You Don't Have A Sword Sell Your Coat & Buy One
Ain al-Remmaneh Residents to Sue Nasrallah over 'Attack'
Judicial Council Asks Bitar to Finish Probe ASAP as He Insists on Summoning MPs
Geagea Summoned to Testify at Intelligence Directorate on Wednesday
LF and Amal Members among 68 Charged over Tayyouneh Unrest
Lebanese judge charges 68 over deadly Beirut clash
Lebanese PM Najib Mikati in Iraq to discuss economy
Taxi Drivers Blocks Roads Anew to Press for Their Demands
Report: Govt. to Stay despite Political Tensions
Is Hezbollah trying to spark a confrontation between the army and the Lebanese Forces?/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/October 25/2021
Transcendence and transgression/Ana Maria Luca/October 25/2021
Turquie, la gesticulation d’un dictateur aux abois /Charles Elias Chartouni/Octobre 25/2021
De grands nuages sombres et menaçants encombrent notre ciel/Jean-Marie Kassab/Octobre 25/2021

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 25-26/2021
Russia disbanding Syrian militia it formed, opening up Golan for Iran – report
Iran uses death penalty to target protesters, human rights expert tells UN
As Vienna talks falter, Washington is ‘prepared for anything,’ says envoy
EU says to hold nuclear talks with Iran in Brussels ‘this week’
West braces for Turkey’s possible expulsion of 10 envoys
Armed Forces Detain PM and Other Leaders in Sudan 'Coup'
Arab League Expresses 'Deep Concern' over Sudan
Egypt, Greek air forces complete training exercise
Canada/Statement by Minister Garneau on Sudan

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 25-26/2021
Turkey-EU relations in the post-Merkel era/Yasar Yakis/Arab News/October 25/2021
Palestinian Prisoners No One Talks About/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/October 25/2021
France: Can Éric Zemmour Be the Next President?/The Journalist Who Is Reshuffling the Cards in French Politics/Yves Mamou/Gatestone Institute/October 25/2021
Turkey Lands on Anti-Money Laundering Watchlist — Again/Aykan Erdemir and Toby Dershowitz/FDD/October 25/2021
Iran’s Nuclear Extortion Continues/Behnam Ben Taleblu/FDD/October 25/2021
Biden Creates His Own ‘Strategic Ambiguity’ on Taiwan/Thomas Joscelyn/FDD/October 25/2021
Iraqi election results confirm Iran’s unpopularity/Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Arab News/October 25/2021
Iraq’s elections for democracy in the face of Iran’s hegemony is a fallacy/Makram Rabah/Al Arabiya/October 25/2021
The evasion of US sanctions on Iran is escalating/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/October 25/2021

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 25-26/2021
If You Don't Have A Sword Sell Your Coat & Buy One
Luke 22/35-38: "Then Jesus asked his disciples, “When I sent you out that time without purse, bag, or shoes, did you lack anything? Not a thing, they answered. “But now, Jesus said, whoever has a purse or a bag must take it; and whoever does not have a sword must sell his coat and buy one. For I tell you that the scripture which says, ‘He shared the fate of criminals, must come true about me, because what was written about me is coming true. The disciples said, Look! Here are two swords, Lord! That is enough! he replied.".

Ain al-Remmaneh Residents to Sue Nasrallah over 'Attack'
Naharnet/October 25, 2021
A number of Ain al-Remmaneh residents will file a lawsuit Monday against Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Annahar newspaper said. The residents have prepared “a complete file backed with testimonies, evidence and videos proving that Ain al-Remmaneh came under a deliberate attack,” the daily added. Seven people were killed on October 14, including five Hizbullah and Amal Movement members, during a protest organized by the two groups to demand Tarek Bitar, the judge investigating Beirut's devastating port blast, be removed.
Hizbullah and Amal accused the Lebanese Forces party, which supports the probe, of being responsible for sniper fire against the protesters that ignited street clashes. The LF denies the charges. Fadi Akiki, a representative of the military court, has meanwhile instructed the army intelligence to summon LF leader Samir Geagea and take his statement based on information provided by arrested LF supporters. Twenty-six people were arrested after the violence in the Tayyouneh-Ain al-Remmaneh area, most of them LF supporters. Geagea has denied responsibility for the deaths, saying that residents of Ain al-Remmaneh had "defended" themselves against "Hizbullah militiamen who tried to enter their homes." He also said that four Ain al-Remmaneh residents were injured at the hands of violent protesters, some by handgun shots, before any rounds were fired from the neighborhood.

Judicial Council Asks Bitar to Finish Probe ASAP as He Insists on Summoning MPs
Naharnet/October 25, 2021
Beirut port blast investigator Judge Tarek Bitar on Monday joined a Higher Judicial Council meeting after he was summoned by the conferees, media reports said. State Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat meanwhile left the meeting seeing as he had been recused from the port case. A statement issued by the Council said the summoning of Bitar was based on Article 4 of the judiciary’s law, which stipulates that “the Higher Judicial Council oversees the judiciary’s proper functioning, dignity and independence and takes the necessary decisions in this regard.” “The Council’s members listened to Bitar and discussed with him what has been raised regarding the Beirut port blast file, stressing the need to finalize the investigation as soon as possible according to the legal norms, in order to fulfill justice and hold the perpetrators responsible,” the statement added.
Al-Jadeed TV meanwhile reported that Justice Minister Henri Khoury has sent a memo to parliament in which he mentioned that Bitar is insisting on continuing his prosecution of the ex-ministers and incumbent MPs according to Article 97 of parliament’s bylaws. “Parliament Bureau will meet with the administration and justice (parliamentary) committee to take a decision on the Justice Minister’s memo and decide whether to halt or keep the prosecution,” the TV network added. The Council had started its meetings on Tuesday to discuss several issues after new members were appointed. The summoning of Bitar comes amid intense criticism from Hizbullah of the direction of the long-running investigation. Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has accused Bitar of politicizing the probe and singling out some officials and not others. He has also called on the government to remove Bitar. Bitar has been in the post since February, after his predecessor was removed by a court decision following legal challenges from senior government officials who were also summoned. Nasrallah's accusations marked a major escalation in rhetoric targeting Bitar and were followed by protests last week by supporters of Hizbullah and its ally Amal against the judge. The protests descended into violence unseen in Lebanon in years: Seven people were killed and dozens were injured during five hours of clashes between supporters of the two groups and gunmen accused of being allied with the Lebanese Forces party. Critics held Bitar responsible for the bloodshed.
But on Tuesday, the judge went ahead with summoning two former government ministers, one of them an ally of Hizbullah, for questioning regarding the port blast. Bitar had issued arrest warrants for the two ex-ministers but with the resumption of parliament sessions Tuesday following a recess, the ministers reclaimed parliamentary immunity, which had shielded them from previous interrogation. The two former ministers, Ghazi Zoaiter and Nouhad al-Mashnouq, are also lawmakers. They have been summoned to appear Oct. 29. The former ministers' legal teams argue that with parliamentary immunity in place, the officials are exempt from appearing before the judge. But according to the parliament's bylaws, Bitar can renew his summonses because he first called for their questioning in a period when parliament was in recess -- at a time when the two men had briefly lost their immunity.
Legal experts have called it the "battle of immunities" as the defendants and the lead judge have looked for loopholes in the law to each get their way. The result has been interruptions of the investigation, which is centered on what caused the explosion of ammonium nitrate, a highly explosive fertilizer often used to make bombs, stored in the port for years. Independent media and rights groups have revealed that senior government officials knew of the material stored in the port but did nothing to store it properly or warn the public of its presence and danger. More than 215 people died and over 6,000 were injured in the blast that devastated parts of the city Beirut.

Geagea Summoned to Testify at Intelligence Directorate on Wednesday
Naharnet/October 25, 2021
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea was on Monday summoned to testify as a “witness” in the case of the Tayyouneh-Ain al-Remmaneh deadly incidents. “You are required to be present at the Defense Ministry in Yarze – the Intelligence Directorate’s Investigations Branch – at 9am Wednesday to give your testimony as a witness over the case of the Tayyouneh-Shiyyah-Ain al-Remmaneh incidents,” an Intelligence Directorate notice said. Annahar newspaper said an Intelligence Directorate agent arrived in Maarab to hand Geagea the notice without being able to meet him. The agent then notified the LF leader through posting the notice on a wall at his headquarters. According to reports, State Commissioner to the Military Court Judge Fadi Akiki has recommended that Geagea testify in the case based on “the confessions of LF detainees.” Geagea has stressed that he will not testify in the case if Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah is not also summoned. Seven people were killed on October 14, mainly Hizbullah and Amal Movement members, during a protest organized by the two groups to demand Tarek Bitar, the judge investigating Beirut's devastating port blast, be removed. Hizbullah and Amal accused the LF, which supports the probe, of being responsible for sniper fire against the protesters that ignited street clashes. The LF denies the charges. Geagea has denied responsibility for the deaths, saying that residents of Ain al-Remmaneh had "defended" themselves against "Hizbullah militiamen who tried to enter their homes." He also said that a protester fired handgun shots and injured four people in Ain al-Remmaneh before any rounds were fired from the neighborhood. On Monday, Judge Akiki charged 68 people, including 18 detainees, with murder, attempted murder and the stirring of sectarian strife in connection with the deadly incidents. Among those charged in absentia were the LF official in charge of Maarab security, Simon Musallem, two Amal Movement members, two Syrians and a Lebanese Army soldier, media reports said. The rest are residents of Ain al-Remmaneh and LF members and supporters, the reports added.

LF and Amal Members among 68 Charged over Tayyouneh Unrest
Naharne/October 25, 2021
State Commissioner to the Military Court Judge Fadi Akiki has charged 68 people, including 18 detainees, with murder, attempted murder and the stirring of sectarian strife in connection with the deadly Tayyouneh incidents, state-run National News Agency said on Monday. Among those charged in absentia were the Lebanese Forces official in charge of Maarab security, Simon Musallem, two Amal Movement members, two Syrians and a Lebanese Army soldier, media reports said. The rest are residents of Ain al-Remmaneh and LF members and supporters, the reports added. The suspects have also been charged with “incitement, possession of unlicensed firearms and sabotage of public and private properties,” NNA said. “The detainees and the file have been referred to acting First Military Examining Magistrate Fadi Sawwan," the agency added. Later in the day, the army said its Intelligence Directorate has completed the investigations into the incidents, referring the file and the detainees to the military prosecution.

Lebanese judge charges 68 over deadly Beirut clash
AP/October 25, 2021
Clash south of Beirut on Oct. 14 was the worst fighting in the capital in years
BEIRUT: A Lebanese judge has charged 68 people in this month’s deadly clash in Beirut that left seven people dead and dozens wounded, the state news agency reported Monday.
The clash south of Beirut on Oct. 14 was the worst fighting in the capital in years and broke out during a Hezbollah-organized protest against the judge leading the investigation into last year’s massive Beirut port blast. The National News Agency said Government Commissioner to the Military Court Judge Fadi Akiki charged the 68 people with crimes including murder, attempted murder, inciting sectarian strife, having unlicensed weapons and sabotage. The battle went on for five hours between supporters of Lebanon’s two powerful Shiite factions, Hezbollah and Amal, and gunmen believed to be supporters of the Christian Lebanese Forces party. It took place on the line between Beirut’s Chiyah and Ain El-Rumaneh neighborhoods, the same frontline that bisected the capital into warring sections during the country’s civil war. NNA said 18 are in detention while the remaining 50 remain at large. It did not give a breakdown to which groups the 68 belong. Samir Geagea, the leader of the Lebanese Forces party, has said that he refuses to be questioned by Akiki unless the judge first questions Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

Lebanese PM Najib Mikati in Iraq to discuss economy
Sinan Mahmoud/The National/October 25/2021
Lebanon's currency has lost more than 90 per cent of its value against the US dollar in recent months
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati arrived in Baghdad on Monday for a short visit, an Iraqi government official said. Mr Mikati is scheduled to meet his Iraqi counterpart Mustafa Al Kadhimi and other officials. Details about the agenda were scant, but the official said the two sides “will discuss bilateral relations, including in the fields of economy and politics.”Lebanon is suffering from a deep financial crisis. Its currency has lost more than 90 per cent of its value against the US dollar, leading to surging inflation, increased unemployment and poverty.
In June, the World Bank ranked Lebanon’s economic crisis among the world’s top 10 crises – possibly even the top three – since the mid-19th century. As a result, the country’s decades-old power problems have intensified over shortages of diesel and other fuel. The central bank has reduced its subsidies for oil imports because of falling foreign currency reserves. In July, Iraq and Lebanon signed a one-year deal to provide the cash-strapped country with fuel. Under the agreement, Lebanon purchases one million tonnes of Iraqi fuel — to be paid for in Lebanese pounds. In return, Iraq will spend the sum on Lebanese services. As the Iraqi heavy fuel oil can’t be used in Lebanon because of its high sulphur content, Lebanon is swapping it with another kind that is suitable to run the country’s power plants.

Taxi Drivers Blocks Roads Anew to Press for Their Demands
Naharnet/October 25/2021
Taxi drivers blocked several key roads across the country on Monday morning in protest at the latest hike in fuel prices. In the capital, the drivers blocked the vital Ring highway and the Saifi intersection in central Beirut. Others meanwhile blocked the Aley roundabout in Mount Lebanon and the al-Nejmeh and al-Murjan roundabouts in the southern city of Sidon. The roads remained blocked for several hours before being reopened. The protests were held under the “We’re Hungry” slogan, with the drivers decrying the negative impact of the price of gasoline on their profession and livelihood amid a crunching economic crisis. The country had witnessed similar protests on Wednesday after the Energy Ministry announced new fuel prices. The latest hike is linked to a global rise in the prices of fuel and marks a de facto end to state subsidies, pushing the cost of filling a vehicle's tank to more than the monthly minimum wage in the poverty-stricken nation. The prices of fuel had already soared in Lebanon after the central bank gradually lifted and eventually ended subsidization. A common unit of measurement -- 20 liters -- of 95-octane gasoline was hiked by LBP 59,900 on Wednesday to reach LBP 302,700, or around $15 at the black market rate. This is around five times the price of 61,100 pounds set at the end of June, adding to the economic pain in a country where power cuts are common and basic goods including medicine have become scarce. Diesel is meanwhile selling at LBP 270,700 per 20 liters and a cylinder of cooking gas is selling at LBP 229,600. An energy ministry official said that the "latest petroleum prices were calculated on the basis of a currency exchange rate of 20,000 pounds to the dollar as per a central bank request."

Report: Govt. to Stay despite Political Tensions
Naharnet /October 25/2021
The government is still present and will continue its mission despite the latest suspension of Cabinet sessions, ministerial sources said. The political forces taking part in it “do not intend to topple it, because they have no interest in this,” the sources told al-Joumhouria newspaper in remarks published Monday. “The recent crisis over the investigative judge into the Beirut port explosion is not political but rather a judicial affair, based on the principle of separation of powers, which does not allow the government to sack the judge,” the sources added. “Contacts are ongoing to secure the resumption of Cabinet sessions after finding the appropriate environment for their recommencement based on a middle ground judicial solution,” the sources went on to say. The sources also noted that “the timing of sessions’ resumption is political and will be set by the President and the Premier,” pointing out that “the ministerial committees are addressing the accumulating crises, with the participation of the ministers who represent Hizbullah and Amal Movement, which is an indication that no one wants to go too far in escalation.”Moreover, the sources said PM Najib Miqati is “playing a positive role in containing the repercussions of political tensions on the governmental situation.”

Is Hezbollah trying to spark a confrontation between the army and the Lebanese Forces?
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/October 25/2021
While the Lebanese are talking about Samir Geagea as the leader who slapped Hezbollah in the face, the reality might be much more complex than that. In a televised interview, Marcel Ghanem told Geagea that Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah offered the Lebanese Forces president popularity on a silver plate, which Geagea promptly rejected.
While people around the country erected pictures of Geagea as the leader who could stand against Hezbollah, it is not him specifically who stood against the group. Before him, regular people in Khalde and Showaya took a stand. The confrontation in Tayouneh happened simply because people were fed up with Hezbollah’s show of power. It has been either the group’s way or the highway, and they have the power of arms to dictate what they want. In May 2008, they proved that they could use their military power to force their will on everyone else. They imposed a change of government by the power of arms and reversed decisions regarding the security of the airport. However, as time passed and as the situation worsened, the fear barrier fell. People are ready to say no to Hezbollah, and this is what drove confrontations in Khalde, Showaya and Tayouneh.
Nasrallah made a two-hour speech targeting the Lebanese Forces, accusing them of being a militia that wants to spark a civil war. In his speech, he also said that he would not let the blood of their martyrs go in vain and made the veiled threat that if justice were not served through the judiciary and the army, they would see what would happen.
A video clearly shows a soldier shooting an armed Hezbollah fighter who had a rocket-propelled grenade pointed at a building, about to fire. If such a soldier is prosecuted, then no soldier will ever dare face Hezbollah or any other armed militia. Such a trial will weaken the army and prop up Hezbollah. The problem is that Hezbollah and Amal have a lot of influence on the military court, which is not under the jurisdiction of the army commander. Though the investigation has not concluded yet, word on the street is that three out of the dead were shot with army ammunition.
The confrontation in Tayouneh happened simply because people were fed up with Hezbollah’s show of power.
While people are happy celebrating what is seen as a slap for Hezbollah, it is important to determine whether there was a plan behind it. Al Jadeed announced that, based on the testimony of some who were arrested, military intelligence found ground on which to summon Geagea for questioning. When asked about this during the interview on MTV, Geagea said he is ready to be questioned if there is a fair investigation. However, if the investigation is biased and he is targeted and framed, he will use all legal methods available to fight back. The host alluded to the Sayidat Al-Najat case that was raised against Geagea in 1994. At that time, Lebanon was under Syrian influence, and a file was constructed around the bombing of a church with Geagea’s supporters saying that all the evidence was fabricated to frame the Lebanese Forces leader and put him in jail. As a result, Geagea spent 11 years in jail and was set free only when Syrian forces left Lebanon following mass protests and international pressure resulting from the assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. If, on the other hand, Geagea is framed with a case of sedition, as Hezbollah is claiming, and the army is sent to Meerab where Geagea resides to arrest him, then this will spark a clash between the army and the Lebanese Forces. This might be what exactly Hezbollah needs to diffuse popular anger. People will no longer see Hezbollah as the enemy of law and order but the Lebanese Forces.
On the other hand, this can serve as a huge favor to Hezbollah’s ally, Gebran Bassil, who has seen his popularity plummet due to corruption charges and his unconditional alliance with Hezbollah. While people were cheering on Geagea, saying “No one protects the eastern part of Beirut except the Lebanese Forces,” if a confrontation sparks between the army and the Lebanese Forces, many will think twice about this claim. When Hezbollah was under pressure following the assassination of Hariri, as it was and still is a close ally of the Assad regime, the confrontation with Israel made people forget about those accusations, and Hezbollah emerged stronger, as the hero who was able to stand against Israel. Now that the port blast investigation — which Hezbollah wants so badly to shut down — is taking its course and is very unlikely to be stopped, an internal clash might be exactly what they need to create the necessary distraction. This will justify Nasrallah’s claim that the greatest threat to Christians in Lebanon is the Lebanese Forces party and its leader.
Nabil Halabi, a lawyer and a human rights activist in Lebanon, said in a tweet that the group will use the case of Tayouneh to pressure the judiciary into letting go of the port blast case. Though it might not take this path, it will be interesting to see how Hezbollah politically exploits the Tayouneh incident and the fact that some of its members lost their lives.
The army, as well as the international community, should be aware of all those factors and make sure there is no prosecution of the military members who were doing their job, that there is no confrontation between the Lebanese Forces and the army, and that no pressure is exerted on the judiciary to shut down the port blast investigation.
• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese NGO focused on Track II. She is also an affiliate scholar with the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.

Transcendence and transgression
Ana Maria Luca/October 25/2021
Religion is nothing special, but it’s central. British anthropologist Maurice Bloch says that we, humans, often choose to live in a double social sphere – one that is transactional, the worldly, the mortal and ephemeral, and one that is transcendent.
In his article on the double character of the human social, Bloch looks at how a Malagasy tribe treats an elder. On the one hand, old, physically weak, and spends his time in the fetal position, wrapped in a blanket. Yet, he is treated with respect, and even fear. He blesses the community at rituals. In the transactional social sphere, he has become insignificant. In the transcendental social sphere, he is the Ancestor.
The head of the Beirut blast probe, Tarek Bitar, has transcended already. Sure, he exists here, in our daily transactional as a simple prosecutor. He may even insist in his close circle that he has been and continues to be just a prosecutor who carries a briefcase and has a desk full of paperwork and files. He may even admit that he fears for his life.
But he also exists in the minds of thousands of Lebanese who have never seen any probe in the country advancing so much, as the Prosecutor – the magistrate who has at least triggered a crack in the formerly impenetrable wall of the political brotherhood that has run the country for so many decades.
Unfortunately for Hezbollah and its allies, the process of transcendence is almost never reversible.
Omar Tamo, Forbes MENA’s Excel wiz, has a daily appreciation tweet for Bitar. He uses memes inspired by the famed prosecutor. When that happens to a person, it’s already too late to bring them back to the worldly transactional, ephemeral world.
Many others are expressing, organically, their daily support for the transcendental Prosecutor, including more than 20,000 fake accounts.
Basically, in Lebanon, at the moment, one can see two super-political actors that are dividing the political scene: Hezbollah and prosecutor Tarek Bitar.
Hezbollah is again at war, politically speaking
Although Bitar never actually targeted any of its politicians, Hezbollah lashed out at him and his investigation in the summer of 2021 and continues to do so, using every means in the Party’s arsenal, but especially its digital disinformation units. Hezbollah has been doing what it does best: warring with whoever it can.
The war of summons: Following the October 14 clashes, the head of the Lebanese Forces Christian group, Samir Geagea, has been summoned for questioning over deadly violence that erupted at a Shiite rally last week, a judicial official told AFP on Thursday.
Fadi Akiki, a representative of the military court, had “instructed the army intelligence to summon Geagea and take his statement based on information provided by arrested LF members”, the judicial official said.
It’s not really clear what is actually happening in regards to that summons – the system is really not the most transparent and citizen-friendly in the world -but State Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat said that he has not suspended State Commissioner to the Military Court Judge Fadi Akiki’s decision to summon Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea in the Tayyouneh incidents case,
On Thursday, Geagea told Lebanon’s MTV channel he was not aware of the summons but that he was ready to appear before the judge if Nasrallah appears before him.
Obviously, an absurd request: Nasrallah has been in hiding since the war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006.
The war of numbers: Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said last Monday night that his Iran-backed movement had 100,000 armed fighters at its disposal, and warned it is against sparking any “civil war”.
Geagea also said that his party, the Lebanese Forces has 35,000 people, but they are members, not fighters. Badaboom, tshhh!
The war of words: Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Friday vowed to follow up on the investigations into the deadly Tayyouneh incidents, as he described the probe as “serious, accurate and brave.”
“Things are judged by their outcomes and the political, popular and journalistic condemnation of those who killed, aggressed and almost dragged the country into strife and civil war must continue,” Nasrallah said in a televised speech marking the Prophet’s Birthday. It was his second appearance within 5 days, a rare occurrence for the Hezbollah leader. I reckon it must be important at the moment to put himself and his message out there as much as possible.
Deputy leader and known ideologist and strategist Naim Qassem said on Saturday that Bitar “has become a real problem in Lebanon.”
He accused Bitar of “flagrantly politicizing the probe”, alleging that the relatives of the victims have grown suspicious of him and that he had almost caused strife in the Tayyouneh area in Beirut.
Also on Saturday, the Amal Movement released a statement accusing President Michel Aoun’s advisor, ex-minister Salim Jreissati, of ordering Bitar around. Jreissati on Sunday snapped back at the Amal Movement:
“It is silly, unjust, shameful and criminal to accuse the investigative judge into the port blast of acting at the dictations of a ‘black room’ run and overseen by me,” the ex-minister said.
The war of sermons: This is the most interesting one, given the loss of human lives during the October 14 clashes.
Since the October 14 clashes, Amal and Hezbollah affiliated clerics have slammed the Beirut blast investigation in their Friday sermons. Most notably, the Grand Jaafari Mufti Ahmad Kabalan, close to Hezbollah, has called in his sermons for dismissing Bitar in order to avoid sectarian strife. He also accused Bitar of targeting only officials close to Hezbollah, more Muslims than Chiristians.
The Maronite patriarch took the side of Christian Leader Samir Geagea during his Sunday sermon and expressed his support for the Ain el-Remmaneh residents
Greek Orthodox Metropolitan of Beirut Elias Aude on Sunday lashed out at Hezbpllah and Amal Movement. He said that “those possessed by the demons of corruption tried to evade testimony (in the port blast case) by storming civilian areas, terrorizing residents and school students, and accusing those who defended themselves of being the aggressors and killers.”
The online war: L’Orient le Jour’s Marie Jo Sader looked at the social media campaign meant to assassinate Tarek Bitar’s character “through a systematically manipulated operation with clever disinformation orchestrated by Hezbollah”.
The war of billboards:
Tabled border talks
If it takes this long, it’s not happening: US envoy Amos Hochstein arrived last Tuesday in Beirut in a bid to rekindle moribund talks over a maritime border dispute between Lebanon and Israel that is holding up oil and gas explorations. He met with several Lebanese officials and then left for Israel and Egypt.
It was more of a courtesy visit, meant to reassure both sides of the US commitment to solving the problem. The thing is, though, that Lebanon may have more stringent problems to solve and Beirut needs Washington’s help to start importing gas and electricity from Egypt, respectively Jordan, through Syria.
Also at the border: The Israeli Army claims to have foiled a weapon smuggling operation at the border with Lebanon.
Elections
President Michel Aoun has rejected an amended draft law to hold early parliamentary elections on March 27 instead of May because it would pose logistical issues, shorten the timeframe for Lebanese expats to register, and prevent young people who would reach the voting age of 21 by May 8 from voting.
RIP subsidies
Lebanon raised fuel prices on Wednesday in a de facto end to state subsidies, pushing the cost of filling a vehicle’s tank to more than the monthly minimum wage in the poverty-stricken nation.
Subsidies were gradually phased out over the past few months to shore up diminishing foreign currency reserves at the central bank, which could no longer fund fuel imports.
A revised price list published by the energy ministry set the cost of 20 literslitres (5.3 gallons) of 95-octane petroleum at 302,700 Lebanese pounds, or around $15 at the black market rate.
This is around five times the price of 61,100 pounds set at the end of June, adding to the economic pain in a country where power cuts are common and basic goods, including medicine, have become scarce.
The Lebanese tuk-tuk: One of the by-products of Lebanon’s historic shortages and currency crisis is the first meaningful dent in decades in the reign of the private automobile, AFP reported.
Tuk-tuks, bicycles, carpooling and affordable buses — which were once out of the question for many — have since become more popular amid changing public attitudes and skyrocketing transport costs, including higher taxi fares.
The audit: New York-based Alvarez & Marsal (A&M) auditing firm, contracted by the Lebanese government, is to resume its audit of the central bank in line with creditors’ demands, the Lebanese presidency announced last Thursday.
Finance ministry official Georges Maarawi told AFP that the firm “will have 12 weeks to collect information and draft a report,” under the terms of its contract with the Lebanese government.
Lebanon+
If street fighting and political bickering over the Beirut port blast investigation has caught most of the mainstream media attention last week, for the average Lebanese it is hard to forget about the daily shortages: electricity, fuel and skyrocketing inflation.
Megaphone news, Lebanon’s biggest independent platform that brings the news on social media, has launched a fund raiser. It is hard to keep going in Lebanon during the current chaos, so give them a hand.
Podcasts:
Do not miss Jad Ghosn’s talk with Lebanese thinker and writer Georges Corm. Ronnie Chatah asks Minteshreen’s Hussein el-Achi the hard questions on this week’s episode of The Beirut Banyan podcast, as they also discuss Lebanon’s past and how it should be dealt with. The episode was recorded as the political group launched its beta version website.
Agenda:
On Monday, Lebanese PM Najib Mikati will be in Baghdad. Iraq is one of the main sources of fuel for Lebanon, as the country vowed to barter for medical services. On Thursday, October 28, Former PM Hassan Diab is set to testify in the Beirut port blast inquiry.
Until next week, subscribe to our newsletter, follow us on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, or LinkedIn and try to stay safe.

Turquie, la gesticulation d’un dictateur aux abois
Charles Elias Chartouni/Octobre 25/2021
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/103618/charles-elias-chartouni-turquie-la-gesticulation-dun-dictateur-aux-abois-%d8%b4%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d8%b4%d8%b1%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%86%d9%8a-%d8%aa%d8%b1%d9%83/
L’expulsion des ambassadeurs américain et européen en Turquie renvoie, une fois de plus, aux manœuvres d’un dictateur qui ne cesse de fuir les crises de l’intérieur en multipliant celles de l’extérieur. L’inflation galopante (19.5/100) et la dévaluation de la livre turque par rapport au dollar (25/100), se traduisent par une crise diplomatique qui n’a aucune raison d’être hormis les impasses qu’il n’a cessé de créer depuis le début de sa dérive totalitaire. La crise provoquée par la requête de libération de l’homme d’affaires turc, Oman Kavala, est loin de justifier une rupture diplomatique de cette ampleur, alors que la Turquie est en pleine crise et que des échéances diplomatiques de taille ( réunion du G20) s’imposent, comme l’a rappelé son ministre des affaires étrangères. L’opposition n’a pas tardé à souligner la portée interne de cette démarche absurde qui mettent en relief les incohérences de cette dérive autocratique, et l’incapacité d’Erdogan à résoudre les problèmes économiques et sociaux qui deviennent de plus en plus graves.
La nature populiste de cette gesticulation est non seulement déplacée mais révèle son incapacité à résoudre des problèmes réels en s’accommodant des paradoxes qui définissent désormais sa politique, tant à l’intérieur qu’à l’extérieur de la Turquie: dérive autocratique et gestion rationnelle de l’économie, absence de consensus interne et guerre civile larvée, interventionnisme politique et militaire surdimensionné et crises monétaire et socio-économique aigües, croissance économique, clientélisme et régime de rentes et de prébendes institutionnalisées, affiliation discrétionnaire à l’OTAN, au partenariat européen, et manœuvres sur les interstices de la nouvelle guerre froide, alors que l’opposition interne croît au gré de ces paradoxes qui ne font que questionner la légitimité opérationnelle de ces choix, alors que leur légitimité idéologique était, d’ores et déjà, controversée. La question qui ne cesse de refaire surface avec la nature cyclique des crises qui ponctuent la vie de ce régime, et remettent en question l’avenir de la république et de la démocratie en Turquie.
L’islamisme ségrégationniste et la ré-emergence de l’impérialisme néo-ottoman ne peuvent plus, désormais, coexister avec l’héritage républicain, et s’avèrent résolument contre-productif lorsqu’il s’agit de gérer une économie moderne assaillie par un régime aussi conflictuel et peu regardant à l’endroit des encadrements normatifs d’une démocratie libérale et de l’État de droit. Les équivoques de l’islamisme turc viennent à terme et ne peuvent plus s’accommoder d’autant de contradictions qui remettent en question la paix civile, le credo laïc et républicain de l’héritage kemaliste, l’appartenance à l’OTAN et le partenariat européen, et les conditions de fonctionnement d’une économie moderne. Les démocraties occidentales doivent rappeler à l’ordre un régime dont la délinquance se joue de toutes les contradictions et de tous les registres impunément, jusque-là, alors que la crise financière et socio-économique se fait pesante et que l’opposition a du mal à admettre la perpétuation de ce coup d’État continu et ses effets destructeurs tous azimuts. La remise en état des sanctions, des politiques de conditionnalité et l’appui résolu à l’opposition sont essentiels pour mettre fin à ce chantage et cisailler ce populisme dangereux qui se nourrit d’une impunité qui n’a que trop duré.

De grands nuages sombres et menaçants encombrent notre ciel.
Jean-Marie Kassab/Octobre 25/2021
Toutes les crises convergent vers un seul point : Un recours à la violence , de toute sorte. Rumeurs justifiées d' attentat qui eux-mêmes provoqueront des reactions imprévisibles ainsi que d'autres , dans une réaction en chaine. Peut-être une mini guerre. J'ai pris soin de ne pas dire guerre civile car quand un occupant frappe de ses brigades locales, cette guerre n'est point civile, elle est purement un acte militaire de la part de l'occupant. Ceci dit, heureusement qu'il existe une résistance.
Il y aura sans doute des morts, des blessés, des dégats matériels. Un cocktail amer bien connu des Libanais.
Sauf que , et c'est là que le bats blesse : Les aounistes , qu'en pensent-ils, que feront-ils , comment agiront-ils.
Les Aounistes , et je m'adresse à eux: Ce n'est plus un jeu. Cette fois c'est du réel. Du très réel. Ce n'est pas du netflix où une fois l'écran éteint on va dodo. Ce ne sera plus une randonnée où on s'égosille "Général Général" puis on rentre chez soi.
Ce n'est plus un jeu.
Etes vous conscients de votre responsabilité de ce qui va se passer? Etes vous assez lucides pour comprendre que vous avez ouvert la porte à l' occupant ? Avec les répercussions qui iront maintenant au delà de la politique? Que des morts tomberont à cause de vos enfantillages , votre machisme injustifié et vos stupides fanions oranges?
Tristes gens.
Vive la Résistance Libanaise
Vive le Liban
Jean-Marie Kassab

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 25-26/2021
Russia disbanding Syrian militia it formed, opening up Golan for Iran – report
Times Of Israel/October 25/2021
Eighth Brigade, which joined forces with Syria’s army two years ago, could disarm amid reconciliation process in southern Daraa province
Russia is attempting to disband a militia it formed, funded, and armed in southern Syria near the border with Israel over the past few years, a part of an ongoing reconciliation process in the province of Daraa. The Russian military police demanded earlier this month that groups affiliated with the Eighth Brigade hand over their weapons to the command of the brigade, the London-based Al-Quds al-Arabi reported. The leader of the group, which comprises mainly former opposition fighters, agreed two years ago to join the Syrian army with his 10,000-strong paramilitary. But soldiers of the 8th brigade of the 5th corps of the Syrian Arab Army are not paid by Damascus, but rather by the Russians. Reports have indicated they were not particularly loyal to the regime and and to its Iranian partners, and that Damascus and Tehran have long been unhappy with them. Since last month, when a Russian-brokered ceasefire came into force in the Daraa province, reconciliation efforts have been ongoing to allow rebels who refuse to disarm to be evacuated, according to reports. The official SANA news agency published photos of crowds at so-called “reconciliation centers” at the time. “Armed fighters in Daraa al-Balad started handing over their weapons and settling their status at reconciliation centers,” it said.But there has been little reported progress since. The southern province of Daraa, held for years by opposition forces, was returned to government control in 2018 under a previous Moscow-backed ceasefire that had allowed rebels to stay in some areas. With the 8th brigade expected to be entirely disarmed, Israel is reported to be keeping a close eye on the border area. “This opens a wide door for the Iranians, for Hezbollah, for Assad’s forces… to complete a takeover of all this region near the [Israeli] Golan,” Channel 12 news Arab affairs analyst Ehud Ya’ari said Wednesday. *Avi Issacharoff and AFP contributed to this report.

Iran uses death penalty to target protesters, human rights expert tells UN
Ephrem Kossaify/Arab News/October 25/2021
Javaid Rehman said he is particularly disturbed that authorities continue to sentence children to death, in violation of international law
The UN’s special rapporteur on human rights in Iran, he was briefing the General Assembly on the latest annual report on the issue
NEW YORK: A human rights expert described executions carried out in Iran as “an arbitrary deprivation of life,” as he called on Tehran to reform its laws and abolish the death penalty. He said the punishment is often used as a political tool. Javaid Rehman, the UN’s special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Iran, told the General Assembly on Monday that the death sentence in the country is often imposed on “vague and arbitrary grounds.” He highlighted in particular three criminal charges used to target peaceful demonstrators and political opponents: waging war against God, corruption on earth, and armed rebellion. “The entrenched flaws in law and in the administration of the death penalty in Iran mean that most, if not all, executions are an arbitrary deprivation of life,” Rehman said. “The structural flaws of the justice system are so deep and at odds with the notion of rule of law that one can barely speak of a justice system.”As he briefed the assembly on the fourth annual report on human rights in Iran, the independent expert said that in particular he was “extremely disturbed” by the practice in Iran of sentencing children to death. “Iran remains one of very countries that continues this practice despite the absolute prohibition under international law,” he said. The report highlighted a number of other key human rights concerns in Iran, including the repression of civic space, discrimination against religious, ethnic and sexual minorities, and the dire conditions inside prisons.

As Vienna talks falter, Washington is ‘prepared for anything,’ says envoy
Christopher Hamill-Stewart/Arab News/October 25, 2021
LONDON: Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley has said that the US hopes Iran will return in earnest to talks over curbs to its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, but that Washington is making preparations for all other scenarios.
In an online press briefing attended by Arab News, Malley explained that Iran has two paths ahead of it: Returning to diplomacy and re-engaging with negotiations, or a total breakdown of negotiations by Iran delaying talks in perpetuity or making demands that exceed the parameters of the negotiations.
“Countries, whether they are in the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) or E3 (France, Germany, Italy) see two paths clearly laid out ahead,” said Malley. “One in which Iran, the United States and other parties in the P5+1 take their responsibilities seriously to find solutions to the remaining issues that were left open after the sixth round of talks in Vienna … so that Iran would live by the constraints on its nuclear program that it agreed to in Vienna in 2016.” He said that on this path the US would lift economic sanctions that are “inconsistent” with the 2016 agreement.
“Then there’s the other path,” Malley said, “that we need to at least be prepared for, which is that Iran chooses a different direction, and continues to either delay the resumption of talks or comes back with demands that clearly exceed the parameters of the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. We are increasingly concerned that is the path Iran is on. “It is in Iran’s hands to choose which one it wants to take.”“If it chooses the second path President Biden and Secretary Blinken have both said if diplomacy fails we have other tools, and we will use other tools, to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon,” said Malley. The envoy remained tight-lipped on the exact actions that Washington would take if Iran refused to return in earnest to negotations but said: “We have to be prepared for anything.”
He explained that the US would always be open to diplomacy with Iran to resolve the long-running diplomatic fissure between the two states. However, he said, “the window for negotiations on a return to the JCPOA will not be open forever, but this is not a chronological clock — it’s a technological clock. At some point, the JCPOA will have been so eroded, because Iran will have made advances that cannot be reversed, in which case you can’t revive a dead corpse. But we’re not there yet.”

EU says to hold nuclear talks with Iran in Brussels ‘this week’
AFP/October 25, 2021
BRUSSELS: The EU’s top negotiator will meet his counterpart from Tehran this week in Brussels for talks on restarting negotiations over Iran’s nuclear deal, a spokesman for the bloc said on Monday. The EU and world powers are scrambling to try to get negotiations in Vienna aimed at reviving the 2015 accord back on track after the election of a hard-liner in Tehran. Iran’s chief negotiator on the deal, Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri, wrote on Twitter that he would be in Brussels on Wednesday “to continue our talks on result-oriented negotiations.”EU spokesman Peter Stano said the meeting would involve the bloc’s lead negotiator Enrique Mora, who visited Tehran earlier this month to push Iran to restart full negotiations. Stano said the EU’s diplomatic service was “sparing no efforts to resume talks of all parties in Vienna.” The agreement between Iran and world powers to find a long-term solution to the now two-decade-old crisis over its controversial nuclear program has been moribund since former US president Donald Trump walked out of the deal in May 2018. His successor Joe Biden has said he is ready to re-enter the agreement, so long as Iran meets key preconditions including full compliance with the deal whose terms it has repeatedly violated by ramping up nuclear activities since the US left the pact. But the Vienna-based talks through intermediaries made little headway, before being interrupted by the election of hard-liner Ebrahim Raisi as Iran’s president and suspended for the last four months.
The EU acts as coordinator for the deal that also involves Britain, France, Germany, China and Russia.

West braces for Turkey’s possible expulsion of 10 envoys
AFP/October 25, 2021
ANKARA: Turkey’s relations with Western allies edged Monday toward their deepest crisis of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 19-year rule, as world capitals braced for Ankara’s possible expulsion of ambassadors from the US and nine other countries.
The lira broke through historic lows ahead of a cabinet meeting that could prove fateful to Turkey’s economic and diplomatic standing for the coming months — and some analysts fear years. The cabinet session will address Erdogan’s decision Saturday to declare the Western envoys “persona non grata” for their joint statement in support of jailed philanthropist Osman Kavala. Expulsion orders are officially issued by foreign ministries and none of the Western capitals had reported receiving any by Monday. Some analysts said Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and a few other cabinet members were still trying to talk Erdogan out of following through on his threat and to change his mind. But the Turkish lira — a gauge of both investor confidence and political stability — lost more than one percent in value on fears of an effective break in Ankara’s relations with its main allies and most important trading partners.
“Typically, the countries whose ambassadors have been kicked out retaliate with tit-for-tat expulsions, potentially in a coordinated manner,” Eurasia Group’s Europe director Emre Peker said. “Restoring high-level diplomatic relations after such a spat would prove challenging.”
The crisis started when the embassies of the United States, Germany, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden issued a highly unusual statement last Monday calling for Kavala’s release.
The 64-year-old civil society leader and businessman has been in jail without a conviction for four years.
Supporters view Kavala as an innocent symbol of the growing intolerance of political dissent Erdogan developed after surviving a failed military putsch in 2016. But Erdogan accuses Kavala of financing a wave of 2013 anti-government protests and then playing a role in the coup attempt.
The diplomatic escalation comes as Erdogan faces falling domestic approval numbers and a brewing economic crisis that has seen life turn more painful for ordinary Turks. Main opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu accused Erdogan of trying to artificially deflect attention from Turkey’s economic woes ahead of a general election due by June 2023. “These actions are not to protect the national interests, it’s an attempt to create false justifications for the economy that he has destroyed,” Kilicdaroglu tweeted on Saturday. Erdogan’s rule as prime minister and president has been punctuated by a series of crises and then rapprochements with the West.
But analysts believe his latest actions could open up the deepest and most lasting rift to date. They could also cast a pall over a G20 meeting in Rome this weekend at which Erdogan had expected to discuss with US President Joe Biden his hopes of buying a large batch of US fighter planes.
Erdogan this month further threatened to launch a new military campaign in Syria and orchestrated changes at the central bank that infuriated investors and saw the lira accelerate its record slide. A dollar now buys about 9.75 liras. The exchange rate stood at less than 7.4 liras at the start of the year — and at 3.5 liras in 2017. “I am really sad for my country,” Istanbul law office worker Gulseren Pilat said as the country awaited Erdogan’s next move. “I really hope that it will not be as bad as we fear,” said Pilat. “But I am convinced that even more difficult days await us.” Turkey’s financial problems have been accompanied by an unusual spike in dissent from the country’s business community. The Turkish Industry and Business Association issued a veiled swipe at Erdogan last week by urging the government to focus on stabilising the lira and bring the annual inflation rate — now at almost 20 percent — under control.
But some analysts pointed out that some European powers — including fellow NATO member Britain — refrained from joining the Western call for Kavala’s release. “The conspicuous absence of the UK, Spain, and Italy... is telling, pointing at the emergence of a sub-group within the Western family of nations adept at skipping confrontation with Ankara,” political analyst Soner Cagaptay wrote.

Armed Forces Detain PM and Other Leaders in Sudan 'Coup'
Associated Press/October 25, 2021
Armed forces detained Sudan's prime minister over his refusal to support their "coup" on Monday, the information ministry said, after weeks of tensions between the military and civilian figures sharing power since the ouster of autocrat Omar al-Bashir. Civilian members of Sudan's ruling council and ministers in Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok's transitional government had also been detained, the ministry said in a statement on Facebook. Internet services were cut across the country and the main roads and bridges connecting with Khartoum shuttered, it added. Soldiers stormed the headquarters of Sudan's state broadcaster in the capital's twin city of Omdurman, the ministry said, as patriotic songs were aired on television. People took to the streets, setting tires ablaze and piling rows of bricks across roads to block them in protest against the military move, an AFP correspondent said. "Civilian members of the transitional sovereign council and a number of ministers from the transitional government have been detained by joint military forces," the ministry said. "They have been led to an unidentified location," it said.
It added that "after refusing to support the coup, an army force detained Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and took him to an unidentified location." America's Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Jeffrey Feltman said "the U.S. is deeply alarmed at reports of a military takeover of the transitional government."
"Any changes to the transitional government by force puts at risk U.S. assistance," Feltman said on Twitter. The United Nations described the detentions as "unacceptable." "I am calling on security forces to immediately release all those unlawfully detained or put under house arrest," said Volker Perthes, chief of the U.N. Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan. The European Union and Arab League also expressed "concern." "The EU calls on all stakeholders and regional partners to put back on track the transition process," EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell tweeted.
'Military coup'
The Sudanese Professionals Association, an umbrella group of trade unions which were key in leading the 2019 anti-Bashir protests, denounced what it called a "military coup" and urged demonstrators "to fiercely resist" it. The developments come two days after a Sudanese faction calling for a transfer of power to civilian rule warned of a "creeping coup", at a news conference that was attacked by an unidentified mob. Sudan has been undergoing a precarious transition marred by political divisions and power struggles since Bashir was toppled in April 2019. Bashir, who had ruled Sudan with an iron fist for three decades, is behind bars in Khartoum's high security Kober prison. The ex-president has been wanted by the International Criminal Court for more than a decade over charges of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity in Sudan's Darfur region. Since August 2019, the country has been led by a civilian-military administration tasked with overseeing the transition to full civilian rule. But the main civilian bloc -- the Forces for Freedom and Change -- which led the anti-Bashir protests in 2019, has splintered into two opposing factions. "The crisis at hand is engineered -- and is in the shape of a creeping coup," mainstream FFC leader Yasser Arman told Saturday's press conference in Khartoum. "We renew our confidence in the government, Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, and reforming transitional institutions -- but without dictations or imposition," Arman added. Sudan's bankers association and the doctors' union has declared "civil disobedience. Protesters took to the streets in several parts of Khartoum carrying the Sudanese flags. "Civilian rule is the people's choice," and "No to military rule", some of them chanted. "We will not accept military rule and we are ready to give our lives for the democratic transition in Sudan," said demonstrator Haitham Mohamed. "We will not leave the streets until the civilian government is back and the transition is back," said Sawsan Bashir, another protester.
Rival protests -
Tensions between the two sides have long simmered, but divisions ratcheted up after a failed coup on September 21 this year.
Last week tens of thousands of Sudanese marched in several cities to back the full transfer of power to civilians, and to counter a rival days-long sit-in outside the presidential palace in Khartoum demanding a return to "military rule."Hamdok has previously described the splits in the transitional government as the "worst and most dangerous crisis" facing the transition. On Saturday, Hamdok denied rumors he had agreed to a cabinet reshuffle, calling them "not accurate." The premier also "emphasized that he does not monopolize the right to decide the fate of transitional institutions." Also on Saturday, Feltman met jointly with Hamdok, the chairman of Sudan's ruling body General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and paramilitary commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo. "Feltman emphasized U.S. support for a civilian democratic transition in accordance with the expressed wishes of Sudan's people," the U.S. embassy in Khartoum said at the time. Analysts have said the recent mass protests showed strong support for a civilian-led democracy, but warned street demonstrations may have little impact on the powerful factions pushing a return to military rule.

Arab League Expresses 'Deep Concern' over Sudan
Associated Press/October 25, 2021
The Arab League has released a statement of "deep concern" about the apparent military coup in Sudan. The Secretary-General of the 22-member bloc, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, urged all parties on Monday to "fully abide" by the constitutional declaration signed in August 2019, which had aimed to pave the way for a transition to civilian rule and democratic elections following the ouster of longtime autocrat Omar al-Bashir. "There are no problems that cannot be resolved without dialogue," Aboul Gheit said after Sudan's military detained the country's interim prime minister along with other top Cabinet officials and protesters poured into streets of the capital, Khartoum. "It is important to respect all decisions and agreements that were decided upon … refraining from any measures that would disrupt the transitional period and shake stability in Sudan," the statement added.

Egypt, Greek air forces complete training exercise
Mohammed Abu Zaid/Arab News/October 25, 2021
Training included a number of joint flights, training on long-range air operations, experience exchanges and training in managing air operations
Egyptian paratroopers and Russian air landing forces also carried out a number of activities and events as part of joint military training
The Egyptian and Greek air forces completed a training exercise using combat aircraft at a Greek air base. According to a statement by Egypt’s military spokesman, the training included a number of joint flights, training on long-range air operations, experience exchanges and training in managing air operations.
It came as part of large-scale joint exercises between the armed forces of both countries and efforts to improve military cooperation. Egyptian paratroopers and Russian air landing forces also carried out a number of activities and events as part of joint military training, which will continue until Oct. 29. Weapons and jump training took place during the exercise, which comes within the framework of joint cooperation between the Egyptian and Russian armed forces. Egyptian border guards and Sudanese infantry elements are also taking part in training, which will continue until Oct. 29 at the Mohamed Naguib Military Base. The commander of the Egyptian border guards said that the exercise represented “a rich environment for exchanging experiences” in border security. He also conveyed the greetings of Lt. Gen. Mohammad Zaki, commander-in-chief of the Egyptian armed forces, minister of defense and military production, and Lt. Gen. Mohammad Farid, chief of staff of the Sudanese armed forces. The training activities included lectures and practical exercises that are aimed at enhancing border protection and the combating of smuggling, infiltration and illegal immigration.

Canada/Statement by Minister Garneau on Sudan
October 25, 2021 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Marc Garneau, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued the following statement:
“Canada strongly condemns the unconstitutional seizure of the government by the military in Sudan.
“This action is unacceptable and contrary to the will of the people of Sudan. We stand with the Sudanese people in their desire for a democratic future.
“We call on the military to stand down, honour the provisions of democratic transition and restore the transition process.”

The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 25-26/2021
Turkey-EU relations in the post-Merkel era
Yasar Yakis/Arab News/October 25/2021
German Chancellor Angela Merkel played a crucial role in the shaping of Turkey-EU relations. Every single detail was not worked out by her, but her fingerprint has been visible in most crucial turning points. When Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party, in its early years in power, was genuinely doing its best toward Turkey’s EU accession, Merkel coined a new concept in this process. She said that Turkey should not be admitted to the EU as a full-fledged member, but should enjoy the status of a “privileged partnership.” Nobody offered a clear-cut definition for this concept. Furthermore, there was not in the EU a status called “privileged partnership.” So this concept permanently hung in the air without a proper definition. Merkel thought Turkey was too big to be absorbed by the EU and that it belonged to another culture, the Islamic world. Turkey’s population amounted at that time to 80 million while Germany’s was 81 million. It was clear that in light of its growth rate, Turkey’s population was going to exceed that of Germany in a few years’ time. This would mean that Turkey was going to have the highest number of seats in the European Parliament. Furthermore, the free movement of labor within the EU would facilitate a further increase of Turkish citizens in Germany, where they already constituted the highest percentage of foreign labor.
After the accession in 2005 of the Greek Cypriots to the EU and French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s policy of obstructing Turkey’s accession process for futile reasons, Merkel’s privileged partnership formula was pushed to the second rank. Without appearing in the forefront, Merkel remained steadfast in her position.
On the other hand, she demonstrated her statesmanship when Germany assumed the sessional chairmanship of the EU in 2007. She said that Germany remained steadfast in its position of supporting the privileged partnership for Turkey, but the “pacta sunt servanda” (“agreements must be kept”) rule required that accession negotiations with Turkey should continue. In other words, she put her role as the sessional chairman of the EU council before her title as German chancellor. Few leaders would accurately distinguish between these two roles.
The only area that is alive in Turkey-EU relations is the issue of Syrian and Afghan refugees, and these issues have nothing to do directly with the accession process.
Now that Merkel’s time is almost over, there is a new situation. Turkey’s EU accession process has already been stalled for the foreseeable future, if not for ever. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu mention from time to time that Turkey is committed to the accession process, but actions taken by the government on various EU-related issues prove the contrary. The backsliding in democracy and fundamental rights and freedom of expression are the most visible areas in this regard. The economy is shattered. The judiciary is in a deplorable situation.
Turkey has blatantly refused to implement binding verdicts of the European Court of Human Rights. It ranks as 117th in the World Justice Project index of 2021 among 139 countries.
The only area that is alive in Turkey-EU relations is the issue of Syrian and Afghan refugees, and these issues have nothing to do directly with the accession process.
We do not yet know what type of a coalition government will emerge in Germany. The German Socialist Party is likely to be the leading coalition partner in the future German government. Before the Merkel era, the SPD was one of the strongest supporters of Turkey’ s EU accession. Even if the SPD becomes the leader of the coalition, this would mean little for the revitalization of Turkey’s EU accession process because the circumstances are now different.
Merkel used to play a moderating role in Turkey’s conflict with Greece and the Greek Cypriots. We do not know whether the new German government will be eager to assume a similar role.
Apart from Turkey-EU relations, Germany will continue to be an important partner for Ankara. In such intensive relations there will be close cooperation in areas of common interests, and frequent disagreements as well.
Eighteen Turkish-origin Germans were elected as members of federal parliament (Bundestag) in the last elections. There are plenty of Turkish origin politicians in the provincial parliaments and municipal councils so they assume important jobs in the social and political life of the country. This makes another bond between Turkey and Germany.
During Merkel’s one-day farewell visit to Turkey, both the chancellor and president Erdogan underlined these bonds. But they also underlined their disagreements. This pattern of relations will probably continue in the post-Merkel era.
Germany’s opposition parties frequently criticized CDU-CSU policy for not having raised frequently enough the democratic deficiency and lack of human rights in Turkey.
Given broad relations between Turkey and Germany, we may expect these relations to continue more or less at the same level while Turkey’s EU accession process cannot be expected to be revitalized any time soon in the post-Merkel era.
• Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkey and founding member of the ruling AK Party.
Twitter: @yakis_yasar

Palestinian Prisoners No One Talks About
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/October 25/2021
The Palestinian Islamic Jihad prisoners, who have been convicted of terrorism against Israel, received wide coverage because they are being held in Israeli prisons. They are being held in prison because many of them were involved in major terror attacks against Israel, including murder. The international media and the Palestinian Authority (PA), however, refuse to call the prisoners terrorists. Instead, they call them "militants" or "political detainees."
While the world's attention remains focused on the Palestinians held in Israeli prisons, there is hardly any mention of prisoners and detainees held by the PA security forces in the West Bank
A Palestinian who goes on hunger strike in a Palestinian prison can only dream of being noticed by a foreign journalist or a human rights organization in the US and Europe. A Palestinian who declares a hunger strike in an Israeli prison, on the other hand, has nothing to fear. He or she knows very well that within minutes the whole world will learn about his "grievances."
A report by the Committee of the Families of Political Detainees revealed that the Palestinian security forces committed 217 "violations" against Palestinians just during September.
If Abbas cares so much about Hamas and PIJ prisoners, why is he ordering his security forces to arrest and beat Palestinians for being affiliated with the two groups? If he thinks that these prisoners should be released from Israeli prisons, why doesn't he first release those who are being held in Palestinian prisons?
A final, damning question: Why are the Palestinian security forces arresting or interrogating prisoners shortly after their release from Israeli prisons? How can the PA condemn Israel for arresting these men, but later arrest them on suspicion of belonging to Hamas or PIJ?
In public, Abbas demands that Israel free all the prisoners; but when Israel complies, he rushes to arrest them for "security reasons." The Palestinian prisoners were lucky when they were in Israeli prisons: they attracted the attention of human rights organizations and journalists around the world.
Those who are now being held in Palestinian prisons are undoubtedly wishing that they could be sent back to Israeli prisons, where they would be better treated and win international sympathy.
While the world's attention remains focused on the Palestinians held in Israeli prisons, there is hardly any mention of prisoners and detainees held by the Palestinian Authority (PA) security forces. Pictured: A bleeding protester scuffles with PA security forces during a demonstration in Ramallah on June 24, 2021, following the beating death in police custody of human rights activist Nizar Banat.
A recent hunger strike by Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) prisoners held by Israel caught the attention of many journalists and media outlets. Reports about the hunger strike appeared in newspapers around the world and were included in dispatches by major news agencies.
The PIJ prisoners, who have been convicted of terrorism against Israel, received wide coverage because they are being held in Israeli prisons. They are being held in prison because many of them were involved in major terror attacks against Israel, including murder. The international media and the Palestinian Authority (PA), however, refuse to call these prisoners terrorists. Instead, they call them "militants" or "political detainees."
While the world's attention remains focused on the Palestinians held in Israeli prisons, there is hardly any mention of prisoners and detainees held by the PA security forces in the West Bank.
The international media and most human rights organizations do not care about them because they are being detained and imprisoned by Palestinians, and not by Israel. Moreover, no one seems to care about the Palestinians who are languishing in Palestinian prisons and detention facilities when they go on hunger strikes. As far as the Western mainstream media and many international human rights defenders are concerned, a hunger strike launched in protest of the PA or Hamas has a very different -- and infinitely lower -- standing than one targeting Israel.
A Palestinian who goes on hunger strike in a Palestinian prison can only dream of being noticed by a foreign journalist or a human rights organization in the US and Europe. A Palestinian who declares a hunger strike in an Israeli prison, on the other hand, has nothing to fear. He or she knows very well that within minutes, the whole world will learn about his "grievances."
The PA, meanwhile, continues to display duplicity towards the issue of the prisoners. Hardly a day passes without Palestinian leaders condemning Israel for holding convicted terrorists. This is the same Palestinian Authority that continues to hold many Palestinians without trial and denies them basic rights such as meeting a lawyer or family members.
Many of those arrested by the PA security forces almost on a daily basis are suspected of affiliation with rival groups, such as Hamas and PIJ. It is good that the PA is cracking down on Hamas and PIJ terrorists. It is not good, however, when the PA condemns Israel for doing the same thing.
Most of the PA's Hamas and PIJ detainees, however, are never formally charged or brought to trial before a court. Palestinians refer to these arrests as "political arrests."
Recently, Palestinian activists launched a campaign on social media platforms to protest the "political arrests" carried out by the Palestinian security services.
A campaign, titled "Political Arrests Are a Crime," came in response to a recent increase in the number of arrests carried out by the Palestinian security forces.
Among those targeted by the Palestinian security services are university students, ex-prisoners who spent time in Israeli prisons, and activists affiliated with various Palestinian factions.
A report by the Committee of the Families of Political Detainees revealed that the Palestinian security forces committed 217 "violations" against Palestinians just during September.
The "violations," the committee said, include 52 arrests, 62 summons' for interrogation and five cases of physical assault and beating. The committee renewed its call for the release of detainees held by the Palestinian Authority.
In another report, the committee named some of the people recently incarcerated without trial by the Palestinian Authority.
Raed Halayka, Nour al-Qadi and Yahya al-Qadi were arrested in Hebron; Izzat al-Aqtash and Mu'tasem Ramadan were arrested in Nablus; Mohammed al-Azmi was arrested in Jenin; Salam Manasreh was arrested in Tulkarem and Mahmoud al-Zaghloul was arrested in Qalqilya.
On October 19, a Palestinian human rights group said that the practices of the security services that restrict rights and freedoms have increased recently, especially after the killing of anti-corruption activist Nizar Banat, who was beaten to death by Palestinian security officers in June.
The group, called Center for Democracy and Rights, said that the practices of the Palestinian security forces "attempt to impose a dictatorial reality on the Palestinians," and added:
"... the perpetration of human rights violations by the Palestinian Authority's organs harms the human rights situation and poses a threat to the lives of citizens and their rights as guaranteed in the Palestinian Basic Law and the agreements that enhance the human rights situation."
According to the Palestinian group Lawyers for Justice, 17 Palestinians political activists are currently facing trial in a Palestinian court on charges of participating in protests following the killing of Nizar Banat.
PA President Mahmoud Abbas never misses an opportunity to praise all the prisoners held by Israel, including those affiliated with Hamas and PIJ. He has repeatedly described these prisoners as "heroes" and "freedom fighters" although many of them were involved in terrorist attacks that killed and injured thousands of civilians. Additionally, Abbas has made it clear that he will never sign a peace agreement with Israel unless all Palestinian prisoners are released from Israeli prisons.
One might ask: If Abbas cares so much about Hamas and PIJ prisoners, why is he ordering his security forces to arrest and beat Palestinians for being affiliated with the two groups? If he thinks that these prisoners should be released from Israeli prisons, why doesn't he first release those who are being held in Palestinian prisons?
A final, damning question: Why are the Palestinian security forces arresting or interrogating prisoners shortly after their release from Israeli prisons? How can the PA condemn Israel for arresting these men, but later arrest them on suspicion of belonging to Hamas or PIJ?
In public, Abbas demands that Israel free all the prisoners; but when Israel complies, he rushes to arrest them for "security reasons." The Palestinian prisoners were lucky when they were in Israeli prisons: they attracted the attention of human rights organizations and journalists around the world. Those who are now being held in Palestinian prisons are undoubtedly wishing that they could be sent back to Israeli prisons, where they would be better treated and win international sympathy.
*Khaled Abu Toameh is an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem.
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

France: Can Éric Zemmour Be the Next President?/The Journalist Who Is Reshuffling the Cards in French Politics
Yves Mamou/Gatestone Institute/October 25/2021
Zemmour represents the France of yesteryear: the France of Napoleon, Notre Dame de Paris and General Charles de Gaulle, a France that does not want to become an Islamic Republic. "The danger for France is to become a second Lebanon," Zemmour often says, meaning a country fragmented between sectarian communities that hate and fear one another.
He is the man who broke through the glass ceiling to insert into the media discussion topics such as "immigration" and "jihad" -- which no one had ever dared to talk about publicly. He is a man who embodies the fear of seeing traditional France -- the one of church steeples and the "baguette" -- disappear under the blows of jihad and political correctness.
The meteoric rise of Zemmour has had a second effect: he has broken a degrading electoral trap in which the French people are stuck.... dividing the right to prevent them from returning to power.
From the middle of the eighties until now, the media and the left, together, manufactured an industrial-strength shame-machine to stigmatize as "racist" and "Nazi" anyone who dared to raise his voice on issues of immigration...
The Zemmour fight is just beginning. One thing, however, is certain: Zemmour is restoring an authentic democratic debate about topics -- security, immigration, Islam -- that really matter to the French. For many, Zemmour is the last chance for France not to become an Islamic nation or a "Lebanon in Europe."
Éric Zemmour, who opinion polls place second behind incumbent President Emmanuel Macron for France's 2022 elections, represents the France of yesteryear: the France of Napoleon, Notre Dame de Paris and General Charles de Gaulle, a France that does not want to become an Islamic Republic. "The danger for France is to become a second Lebanon," Zemmour often says, meaning a country fragmented between sectarian communities that hate and fear one another.
The Financial Times calls him "the extreme right-winger". For the New York Times he is the "right wing pundit". For Die Zeit, he is "the man who divides France"... Eric Zemmour, journalist and essayist, is not (yet) an official candidate for the French presidency, but because of his popularity, France is already living at election time.
The presidential elections will take place in about 200 days, but not a week goes by without a poll propelling Éric Zemmour higher and higher in the voter projections for 2022. A Harris Interactive poll published by Challenges magazine on October 6 puts him at 17%, ahead of Marine Le Pen, the candidate of the National Rally party (at 15%, having slipped by 13 points since the summer). Zemmour still remains behind incumbent President Emmanuel Macron, projected at 24%. But for how long?
Seen from abroad, a projected vote tally of 17% for Zemmour may seem low. But in France, the presidential election is a two round competition. The polls quoted here concern the first round only, where there may be 25 candidates in the race. Consequently, first round voting intentions are necessarily fragmented. If the elections were held next week, the only two candidates at the second round would be Marcon and Zemmour.
"Never before have we seen such a meteoric rise in such a short time, insists Jean-Daniel Lévy, deputy director of the poll company Harris Interactive. "We are witnessing the collapse of the very heart of the electorate" of Marine Le Pen.
Who is Eric Zemmour? He is the man who broke through the glass ceiling to insert into the media discussion topics such as "immigration" and "jihad" -- which no one had ever dared to talk about publicly. He is a man who embodies the fear of seeing traditional France -- the one of church steeples and the "baguette" -- disappear under the blows of jihad and political correctness.
A book published by Zemmour on September 16 and entitled La France n'a pas dit son dernier mot (France Has Not Yet Said Her Last Word) is about national identity; 100,000 copies were sold the first week. Zemmour represents the France of yesteryear: the France of Napoleon, Notre Dame de Paris and General Charles de Gaulle, a France that does not want to become an Islamic Republic. "The danger for France is to become a second Lebanon," Zemmour often says, meaning a country fragmented between sectarian communities that hate and fear one another.
Zemmour is not a professional politician. He started as a political reporter at the daily newspaper Le Figaro in the 1990s, but because he was brilliant and had sweeping judgments about French politicians, and deeply understood political and historical culture, he began to be invited on radio and television. Le Figaro gave him a regular column, and in 2006 he became an authentic television star. His participation for five years on "On n'est pas couché," ("We Are Not Asleep"), a Saturday night talk show, made him known to all of France. In 2015, the host of the show, Laurent Ruquier, regretted having teamed up with Zemmour. "We didn't think a monster was going to appear" Ruquier said.
Why is Zemmour "a monster"? Because he claims that "French people from immigrant backgrounds are more controlled than others because most of the traffickers are Black and Arabs.... That is a fact." Zemmour was convicted in court for saying that, not because it was a lie, but because such an assertion is impossible to prove. French law has refused to use the ethnic statistics as they exist in Great Britain or the United States.
Zemmour appears to be shocking because he states that France ceased to be France the day it allowed parents from foreign origin to give African or Muslim first names to their children (Mohammed is the most prevalent name in the Parisian suburbs). Zemmour says he would like to restore a law from the 19th century that obligated all French citizens "to give French first names" to their children. Zemmour also demands that France cease to be subject to the authority of the judges of the European Court of Justice and the European Court of Human Rights. They are the ones, Zemmour says, who prevent foreign criminals from being deported.
He is also uncompromising on societal issues: against assisted reproduction ("I want children to have a father and a mother"), transgender propaganda in schools, same-sex marriage, and LGBT militancy at school. Zemmour is not anti-homosexual, he is just saying that "LGBT lobbies" and "minorities" are at war with France just as Islamists are at war with all Western countries.
Zemmour is popular not because he makes provocative remarks about immigration or LGBT rights. He is popular because he brings to the media concerns that were previously expressed only in the family or among friends. Zemmour's popularity is growing in the polls today because he is now exporting the debate from the media sphere to the political sphere.
Does Zemmour actually have a chance of becoming president? Zemmour is not yet even an official candidate for the presidential election. He is also the man who said that he would "disappoint many people if he did not run".
For many reasons, yes, Zemmour has a chance to be the next president. First, because Macron has proven that an individual who does not belong to any political party can win. The irregularity is therefore reproducible.
Also, the Constitution of the Fifth Republic in France is entirely built to organize an exceptional personality meeting with the French people. This system was carved out for General de Gaulle and directly voted for by the French people. From that vantage point, the meeting between Zemmour and French people is already a reality. When Zemmour organized the promotion of his latest book, thousands of people rushed to shake his hand.
There are other reasons as well that explain Zemmour's exceptional popularity. First, the French population nowadays is segmented into different "audiences" or centers of interest. In France, in the political field, the main characteristic of all of these "audiences" is a feeling of "anguish" and "anger" against the elites who promoted mass immigration without consulting the native population. The Confidence Barometer, a poll published every year in France by Cevipof, the research center of the Paris Institute of Political Studies, is a good indicator of the "lassitude, moroseness, distrust" that the majority of the French population apparently feel toward the political class.
Getting out of the current electoral trap
The meteoric rise of Zemmour has had a second effect: he has broken a degrading electoral trap in which the French people are stuck. This electoral trap was thought up in the mid-1980s by France's socialist President François Mitterrand: dividing the right to prevent them from returning to power. Mitterrand promoted in the state-owned radio and television a microscopic far-right party, the National Front, the first that dared to speak out against immigration.
From the middle of the 80s until now, the media and the left together manufactured an industrial-strength shame machine to stigmatize as "racist" and "Nazi" anyone who dared to raise his voice on issues of immigration.
This policy of shame was so strong that recently even Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally (as the National Front is now branded), tried to escape the stigma of being called a "Nazi" by saying positive things about Muslim immigration and not excluding the use of immigration to fill an alleged labor shortage.
With Zemmour, however, the anti-racist media are now working in a vacuum. The more the media try to stigmatize Zemmour as a "Nazi", the greater his popularity with voters has grown.
Moreover, the leaders of the right-wing party Les Républicains, who did not dare to utter the word "immigration", are now proposing to "put an end to migration laxity" and to stop "uncontrolled immigration". Even Macron has privately acknowledged that Zemmour "was right" about immigration.
The Zemmour fight is just beginning. One thing, however, is certain: Zemmour is restoring an authentic democratic debate about topics -- security, Islam, immigration -- that really matter to the French. For many, Zemmour is the last chance for France not to become an Islamic nation or a "Lebanon in Europe."
*Yves Mamou, author and journalist, based in France, worked for two decades as a journalist for Le Monde.
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Turkey Lands on Anti-Money Laundering Watchlist — Again
Aykan Erdemir and Toby Dershowitz/FDD/October 25/2021
The Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the Paris-based global money laundering and terror financing watchdog, added Turkey to its “grey list” on Thursday, placing Ankara alongside 22 other jurisdictions, including Pakistan, Syria, and Yemen, under increased monitoring. This designation shows yet again that NATO member Turkey continues to offer a permissive jurisdiction for terror finance, sanctions evasion, and money laundering under the 19-year rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Islamist-rooted Justice and Development Party. FATF President Marcus Pleyer summed up Turkey’s situation by saying that “serious issues remain” in the country’s financial operations aimed at combatting money laundering and terrorist financing.
The 39-member FATF was founded in 1989 to defend the integrity of the international financial system. Turkey has been a member since 1991. FATF first put Turkey on its grey list in 2011. In 2012, Turkey came close to being blacklisted, as FATF warned Ankara that the watchdog “will initiate discussions on Turkey’s membership” if “adequate counter terrorist financing legislation has not been enacted by October 2012.” FATF’s “black list,” which currently includes only two countries, Iran and North Korea, designates high-risk jurisdictions against which the watchdog “calls on all members and urges all jurisdictions to apply enhanced due diligence” and “counter-measures to protect the international financial system.”
Grey listing is a step that precedes a jurisdiction’s inclusion on the black list. FATF removed Turkey from its grey list in 2014 after Ankara made various amendments to Turkey’s legal and regulatory framework. Ankara’s systematic shortcomings in implementation, however, continued to draw criticism from Turkey’s Western allies.
In December 2019, FATF warned that unless Ankara improves its “serious shortcomings,” Turkey risked being added to the grey list once again. In Turkey’s mutual evaluation report, an in-depth peer review that includes analysis and recommendations by members states, FATF highlighted the “need to improve measures for freezing assets linked to terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.”
Being put on the grey list “can scare away investors and creditors, hurting exports, output and consumption. It also can make global banks wary of doing business with a country,” as the Associated Press reported yesterday. Former U.S. Treasury Department officials told The Wall Street Journal that FATF’s designation of Turkey will “likely spur an exodus of money out of the country as banks and other foreign investors are forced to reassess their exposures.”
Turkey can scarcely afford another blow to its ailing economy. The lira has fallen to an all-time low, having depreciated by 23 percent so far this year, while inflation is at 20 percent. As of last year, the Erdogan government’s financial mismanagement had already prompted the biggest outflows from Turkey’s debt and equity markets in more than a decade and has also dried up foreign direct investment from Ankara’s traditional economic partners in the West. Right before FATF’s decision, the London-based chief economist of a global investment bank tweeted that Turkey has become “an irrelevance to global emerging market investors,” since the country now comprises only “0.2% of the Global Emerging Market MSCI equity index.” MSCI, the world’s largest index provider, warned last year that it was considering ejecting Turkey from its emerging market index and reclassifying the country as a “frontier” or “standalone” market.
FATF listed eight “deficiencies” that need action by Ankara. Among other things, the watchdog says Turkey must apply sanctions “in particular for unregistered money transfer services and exchange offices and in relation to the requirements of adequate, accurate and up-to-date beneficial ownership information.” FATF also says Turkey must undertake “more complex money laundering investigations and prosecutions” and “pursu[e] outgoing requests and domestic designations related to UN-designated groups.”
Pleyer said, “Turkey has made some progress across all areas of concern. However, serious issues remain,” especially in “supervision in particularly high-risk sectors, such as banks, gold and precious stones dealers, and real estate agents.” He added that Ankara “needs to show it is effectively tackling complex money laundering cases and show it is pursuing terrorist financing prosecutions in line with its risks and prioritizing cases of UN-designated terrorist organizations, such as ISIL and al-Qaeda.”
However, rather than prosecuting jihadist financiers, the Turkish government is turning a blind eye to their activities, as U.S. Treasury Department designations continue to show. Likewise, evidence from federal court cases exposes not just the negligence but also the complicity of the Erdogan government in illicit financial activities, including sanctions evasion.
Since 2019, Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has issued seven sets of designations targeting Turkey-based or Turkey-linked jihadist individuals and entities. These sanctions, which OFAC issued in April, September, and November of 2019 and in January, May, August, and September of 2021, demonstrate Washington’s heightened vigilance against jihadist networks operating within the borders of an increasingly adversarial NATO member state. In addition to al-Qaeda, these sanctions targeted illicit financial networks linked to the Islamic State, Hamas, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the Egyptian group Harakat Sawa’d Misr. These links show the extent to which Turkey has become what NPR in 2014 referred to as the “jihadi highway.”
The Erdogan government has also been a key facilitator of Iran’s and Venezuela’s sanctions evasion schemes. In 2018, a Manhattan federal court sentenced Mehmet Hakan Atilla, the Turkish public lender Halkbank’s deputy general manager, to 32 months in prison for participating in a multibillion-dollar scheme to violate U.S. economic sanctions against Iran. Halkbank itself now faces a federal indictment on charges of fraud, money laundering, and other offenses related to its participation in that scheme. In 2019, Treasury designated an Istanbul-based company for facilitating payments made as part of a “corruption network for the sale of [Venezuelan] gold in Turkey,” linked to a key facilitator of the Nicolás Maduro regime’s sanctions-evasion and bribery schemes.
Two other federal cases point to Ankara’s terror finance problem. In October 2020, a judge in the Eastern District of New York ruled that plaintiffs could move forward with a landmark case against Turkey’s Kuveyt Turk Bank for aiding and abetting the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas. Additionally, 876 victims of Iran-sponsored terrorism are pursuing civil action against Halkbank in a Southern District of New York court for helping Tehran avoid the financial consequences of its support for terrorist attacks.
Erdogan has a troubling history of covering up cases against sanctions busters and rewarding sanctions evaders with cushy appointments, including one who went on to serve as an ambassador and another as CEO of the Istanbul stock exchange. Furthermore, since 2008, the Erdogan government has declared seven wealth amnesties, which allowed individuals and entities to repatriate previously undisclosed offshore assets and to declare their domestics assets without facing any legal scrutiny or tax penalties. During the run-up to the last wealth amnesty, in June 2020, Transparency International Turkey Chair Oya Ozarslan warned that Turkey’s policy can “create a risk of introducing black money … into the system” by facilitating money laundering and terror finance.
Besides offering a permissive jurisdiction for illicit finance, the Erdogan government also helps other permissive jurisdictions avoid FATF scrutiny. In 2018, Turkey joined China and Saudi Arabia in trying to block a U.S.-led effort to place Pakistan on the grey list. Ankara remained opposed to the measure even after Beijing and Riyadh withdrew their objections. Last year, Erdogan announced that he opposes adding Pakistan to FATF’s black list.
The Erdogan government was dealt additional blows this week. The European Commission said Turkey has made no progress in the fight against corruption and failed to “establish anti-corruption bodies in line with Turkey’s international obligations.” The commission also recommended that Ankara improve the “legal framework regulating the fight against money laundering and terrorist financing,” in line with the “recommendations of the Financial Action Task Force and those of the Venice Commission on the law on preventing financing of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.”
Despite this flurry of criticism, the Erdogan government shows no signs of recognizing Turkey’s serious and growing illicit finance problem. Turkey’s Ministry of Treasury and Finance responded to FATF by saying that the watchdog’s action was “undeserved.” Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu slammed FATF’s decision by accusing Europe of “financing and empowering terrorism.” He went as far as to claim that the grey list decision was retaliation for Ankara’s measures to stop LGBT individuals from “corrupt[ing] our country’s morals,” and for Turkey’s actions against Washington’s Syrian Kurdish-led partners in the fight against the Islamic State in Syria. Soylu added, “We consider this decision to be a political decision. You are involved in all kinds of perversions. We are not like that; we are a Muslim nation.”
Washington should continue to designate Turkey-based and Turkey-linked illicit financial actors and encourage its allies to do so as well. U.S. authorities should also intensify their ongoing efforts to extradite from Austria the Turkish money laundering suspect Sezgin Baran Korkmaz, who could help expose an extensive and interconnected web of Iranian, Turkish, and Venezuelan illicit financial dealings. Congress and the administration should pressure the Erdogan government to fully implement FATF’s recommendations, which are necessary to protect the integrity of the international financial system. If Turkey does not implement the FATF recommendations in the near future, the watchdog would have ample reason to move Turkey from the grey list to the black list.
*Aykan Erdemir is senior director of the Turkey Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Toby Dershowitz is senior vice president for government relations and strategy. They both contribute to FDD’s Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP). For more analysis from the authors, the Turkey Program, and CEFP, please subscribe HERE. Follow Aykan and Toby on Twitter @aykan_erdemir and @tobydersh. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CEFP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Iran’s Nuclear Extortion Continues
Behnam Ben Taleblu/FDD/October 25/2021
Mohammad Eslami, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization (AEOI), recently proclaimed that the Islamic Republic is ahead of schedule on a parliamentary mandate to enrich 120 kg of uranium to 20 percent purity by the end of 2021. Eslami’s comment builds on months of atomic advances, all of which serve as proof of Tehran’s continuing commitment to a policy of nuclear escalation and coercion.
Uranium enriched to 20 percent and above is qualified as highly enriched uranium (HEU), which Iran is prohibited from producing and stockpiling pursuant to the 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). HEU at higher purities is used in nuclear weapons. States that can enrich up to 20 percent have mastered the lion’s share of the technical work to produce fissile material for nuclear weapons, should they decide to develop them.
At present, it is unclear if the 120 kg of 20 percent enriched uranium is all in the gaseous form known as uranium hexafluoride (UF6), which is suitable for enrichment via centrifuge. The 120 kg figure could be a rough composite of Iran’s 33 kg of 20 percent enriched uranium that remains in different chemical forms and the 84.3 kg of 20 percent enriched uranium that the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said was in UF6 form as of August 2021.
According to experts, it is also possible that Iran is using a different technical measurement, hexafluoride mass, rather than uranium mass and is choosing to tout this repackaged higher figure for political purposes. It may also be possible, but less likely, that Iran’s rate of production at its declared enrichment facilities, the underground Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant and the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant at Natanz, has increased.
While this question is unlikely to be resolved until the IAEA’s next quarterly report, Eslami’s announcement conveys Iran’s intent to benefit from its nuclear expansion by increasing pressure on Washington to make more concessions. Earlier this year, an unnamed Iranian official explicitly stated that Iran would not cease enrichment to 20 percent purity until the removal of U.S. sanctions. “I expect Mr. Eslami to implement the system’s strategy well,” said Fereydoun Abbasi, one of Eslami’s predecessors at the AEOI, in an interview last month.
Although it can be tempting to see Iran’s growing 20 percent enriched uranium stockpile as the result of guidance given by the new ultra-hardline President Ebrahim Raisi and his internationally sanctioned cabinet, the Islamic Republic resumed enriching to 20 percent purity in January 2021, late in the presidency of Raisi’s predecessor, Hassan Rouhani. According to the IAEA, Tehran produced 17.6 kg of 20 percent enriched uranium this February and 62.8 kg this May, all in UF6 form and measured in uranium mass.
Iran’s parliament, which mandated this escalation, did so in response to the killing of Iran’s top military-nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi, in late 2020. Since then, Tehran has used more alleged sabotage as a reason to press for further advances, such as enrichment of uranium to 60 percent purity, a threat the regime has been making for about a decade but did not act on until this April.
Despite the change in style between Rouhani and Raisi, as well as the changes in Iranian government personnel, Tehran has remained consistent in its nuclear policy since Washington left the JCPOA in 2018. While the likely overall aim of this policy is to force America to re-enter a fast-expiring nuclear accord and win sanctions relief, the more the program presses ahead unimpeded, the less restraint Iran may feel down the line. This policy appears to have gone through three different phases, representing the varying levels of risks the regime is willing to run — which are informed first and foremost by Tehran’s understanding of America’s stomach for escalation.
The first phase, starting in mid-2018, is when Iran sought to show “strategic patience.” Tehran was openly hoping that Washington’s unilateral sanctions policy would backfire and fail. Spurred by a desire to respond to the surprising efficacy of U.S. sanctions, Tehran commenced phase two in mid-2019 — gradual and overt violations of the JCPOA while escalating regional and maritime tensions through aggressive military and proxy militia actions. The third and final phase, which began in 2020 and continues until today, features significant nuclear escalation. These moves — such as the production of uranium metal and the knowledge Iran is gaining from making 60 percent enriched uranium — can no longer be considered reversible. By directly impeding IAEA access to monitoring equipment and data, Tehran has also aimed to be more provocative.
The third phase therefore offers the Islamic Republic a chance to develop new nuclear facts on the ground while taking its strategic competition with Washington to a new level. This is why if the Biden administration is serious about preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon, it must advance a strategy of its own to hold the regime accountable for its nuclear advances.
Currently, the Biden administration has not even used counterproliferation authorities to sanction Eslami, the man overseeing this escalation, while the United Nations, United Kingdom, and European Union already have. Eslami has a worrisome past that includes leading organizations supportive of Tehran’s nuclear weapons drive as well as serving in key positions in firms that produce drones and ballistic missiles for the Islamic Republic.
At the very least, Washington should work with international partners to censure Tehran at the next quarterly IAEA Board of Governors meeting. Tehran has thrice managed to avoid censure this year. The Biden administration should also support the efforts of its European partners, who in 2020 triggered the JCPOA’s dispute resolution mechanism within the Joint Commission — the body created by the accord to resolve issues pertaining to implementation — to address Iran’s mounting deal violations. And finally, should Tehran not relent, Washington and its international partners should “snap back” UN Security Council resolutions and penalties on Iran, a process that would occur once the IAEA Board forwarded Iran’s nuclear file back to the Security Council. This would ramp up the multilateral pressure on the Islamic Republic and fortify the Biden administration’s claims of a closing “window” and a diminishing “runway” for diplomacy.
Currently, the Biden administration continues to hope that its offer of talks will be sufficient to bring Iran back to the negotiating table. But Tehran’s growing confidence in its nuclear escalation — particularly its growing stockpiles of 20 percent and 60 percent enriched uranium — indicate that this may not happen soon or even in the manner the administration desires.
*Behnam Ben Taleblu is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he contributes to FDD’s Iran Program and Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP). For more analysis from Behnam, the Iran Program, and CMPP, please subscribe HERE. Follow FDD and the Iran Program on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_Iran and FDD_CMPP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Biden Creates His Own ‘Strategic Ambiguity’ on Taiwan
Thomas Joscelyn/FDD/October 25/2021
During a town hall appearance on CNN Thursday night, President Joe Biden claimed that the U.S. has a “commitment” to defend Taiwan. “So, are you saying that the United States would come to Taiwan’s defense if China attacked?” CNN’s Anderson Cooper asked. “Yes,” Biden replied before Cooper could even finish his question. “Yes, we have a commitment to do that,” the president emphasized.
If Biden meant what he said, then it would be a big deal. The U.S. government has long maintained a posture of “strategic ambiguity” with regards to Taiwan’s fate should the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) finally decide to end the tiny island nation’s autonomy. Across administrations, both Democratic and Republican, the U.S. hasn’t said what it would do, exactly, in that scenario.
But it quickly became apparent that the president didn’t really mean what he said. The White House walked back Biden’s remarks after the press asked if the era of “strategic ambiguity” had come to an end. “The U.S. defense relationship with Taiwan is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act,” a White House spokesperson told Politico. “We will uphold our commitment under the Act, we will continue to support Taiwan’s self-defense, and we will continue to oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo.”
The Taiwan Relations Act does not stipulate that the U.S. will rise to Taipei’s defense in the event of an invasion by Beijing. Instead, the U.S. Congress has committed to provide for Taiwan’s “self-defense”—just as the White House was forced to clarify.
Nevertheless, President Biden’s comment drew a swift rebuke from China’s foreign ministry. “Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory,” CCP spokesperson Wang Wenbin said in response. “The Taiwan question is purely China’s internal affairs that allow no foreign interference.” Wang went on to “urge the U.S.” to “be prudent with its words and actions on the Taiwan question, and avoid sending wrong signals to the ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces, lest it should seriously damage China-US relations and peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.”
In one sense, Biden’s comments may be seen as mildly embarrassing, as he may not even know what America’s official policy with respect to Taiwan really is. On the other hand, didn’t Biden just contribute to the “strategic ambiguity”? Ambiguity is the opposite of clarity. If you are a Chinese strategist today, then you’d have to at least consider the possibility that Biden would attempt to defend Taiwan against an invasion. Whether the U.S. could do so successfully remains in doubt—but that only compounds the uncertainty.
Putin downplays partnership with China, while blasting NATO.
Half a world away in Russia, Vladimir Putin is attempting to maintain his own strategic ambiguity with respect to China. In the past, Putin has openly floated the possibility of entering a military alliance with the CCP. During his remarks yesterday, however, the former KGB man cast his country’s relations with China in a slightly different light.
“We are friends with China not against anyone else, but in each other’s interests, this is first,” Putin said yesterday, according to the Russian news agency TASS. “Second, unlike NATO countries, we are not creating any closed military alliance or any military bloc between Russia and China.”
Some may see Putin’s remarks as an outright rejection of the idea that Russia could establish a formal “military alliance” with China. But the context behind Putin’s remarks is key. Regardless of whether the two countries agree to formally defend one another, they are cooperating on a broad range of military and non-military endeavors. Moscow and Beijing don’t need to call it an “alliance” to be, in a broad sense, allied.
More importantly, Putin was trying to undermine the rationale for NATO’s new defense plans. Hours before Putin rejected the idea of a Russia-China “military bloc,” NATO let it be known that it had crafted a new strategy to counter Russian aggression. “The confidential strategy aims to prepare for any simultaneous attack in the Baltic and Black Sea regions that could include nuclear weapons, hacking of computer networks and assaults from space,” Reuters reported.
Earlier this month, NATO revoked the accreditation of eight Russian officials, meaning they can no longer meet with the alliance’s headquarters in Brussels. NATO accused the Russians of clandestinely working for the Kremlin’s intelligence organs. NATO also cut the size of the Russian delegation in half from 20 to 10 members.
Needless to say, the Kremlin is not pleased with NATO’s moves. The Kremlin retaliated earlier this week by ordering NATO to close its office in Moscow.
It was in this context that Putin tried to downplay Russia’s ties with China. Similarly, other Russian officials have accused NATO of hyping the Moscow-Beijing partnership to justify its own existence. For example, Russia’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Alexander Grushko, appeared on Russian television yesterday to blast NATO’s plans. Grushko taunted the Western military alliance over its defeat at the hands of the Taliban in Afghanistan.
“Against the background of NATO’s ‘successes’ in Afghanistan, it became clear that the image of the Russian threat that NATO has been fostering in recent months was somehow losing its appeal and it was necessary to refresh the Russian agenda, and to put it at the center of NATO’s efforts,” Grushko said. “I think it will be used to continue vilifying Russia and building the concept that NATO is now dealing not only with the Russian threat, but also with the joint Russian-Chinese threat.”
Putin taunted NATO as well. The Russian autocrat said he could envision removing the Taliban’s men from the United Nations’ sanctions list. Such a move, which would require the blessing of the U.S. and other member states on the U.N. Security Council, would allow the Taliban (and al-Qaeda) to raise even more funds around the globe. Thus far, it does not appear the Biden administration is willing to delist the Taliban’s leaders. Putin also praised the Taliban for fighting the Islamic State—even though the Taliban remains closely allied with al-Qaeda, which also battles the former caliphate’s men in Afghanistan and elsewhere. In an attempt to rub even more salt in the wound, Putin called for NATO to stabilize Afghanistan’s economy, saying it was the responsibility of the U.S. and its allies after 20 years of war. Tellingly, Putin didn’t blame the Taliban and al-Qaeda for waging that war. Putin did argue that NATO’s member states should unfreeze billions of dollars in cash that had been earmarked for the now deposed Afghan government. Thus far, the Biden administration has resisted that move, as there are good reasons to think that this money would just benefit the jihadists’ cause, and not really the Afghan people.
Putin said something else yesterday that explains how he sees the world. The “Western dominance in global affairs” that began “several centuries ago and that almost became absolute for a short period in the late 20th century, now gives way to a much more complex system,” Putin said. He added that the change in the “balance of powers implies a redistribution … in favor of those growing and developing countries that have been feeling left behind until now.”
Of course, China is No. 1 on the list of “growing and developing countries” that now want their share of international power. Putin knows that all too well.
*Thomas Joscelyn is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Senior Editor for FDD’s Long War Journal. Follow Tom on Twitter @thomasjoscelyn. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, non-partisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Iraqi election results confirm Iran’s unpopularity
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Arab News/October 25/2021
Iraqi voters this month made it clear they have had enough of Iran’s violent interference in the country’s politics. Under the direction of Tehran’s Quds Force — the external operations arm of its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps — Iraqi Shiite militias have assassinated dozens of activists, suppressed free speech and boasted about their allegiance to the Iranian regime. However, in the Oct. 10 elections, voters punished the militias’ candidates, who saw their bloc shrink from 48 to just 14 of the 329 seats in the Iraqi parliament. This outcome made clear that it was no anomaly when, over the past two years, Iraqis set fire to Iranian consulates and tore down posters of Iranian leaders. Rather, such events reflected the deepening anger against Tehran.
Other aspects of the election results confirmed that Iran’s popularity among Iraqis is tanking. The bloc of Shiite cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr won 73 seats, likely making it the biggest bloc in parliament. Al-Sadr campaigned on the slogan, “No East and no West,” which was first used by the founder of the Iranian regime, Ayatollah Khomeini, who imagined Tehran’s foreign policy as being equidistant from the US-led Western camp and its Russian-led rival. In effect, Al-Sadr called for an Iraqi foreign policy aligned with neither America nor Iran.
His intentions are harder to discern. In 2005, Al-Sadr formed a militia that warred with US troops and enjoyed extensive Iranian support. But in 2008, the firebrand cleric disbanded his militia, although elements within it became the nucleus of the current crop of Iranian-backed Shiite forces. Meanwhile, Al-Sadr himself became an ardent supporter of disbanding all militias.
At least compared to the results of the previous elections in 2018, Al-Sadr’s victory is good news for America. The bad news is that he is a mercurial populist who has often expressed antagonism toward the US and its role in Iraq.
However, Al-Sadr understands that, even with his impressive bloc of 73 seats, his candidates will need allies to attain the 165-seat majority required to form a government. He could potentially form an anti-Iran bloc by teaming up with the Sunnis and Kurds that are aligned with Washington and its allies.
The good news in that regard is that anti-Tehran Sunnis and Kurds also won big at the polls. The only consolation for Iran’s allies was the strong performance of former Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki, whose coalition picked up 37 seats. While Al-Maliki supports militias, his opportunism has kept him at arm’s length from Tehran, which does not consider him to be a reliable ally.
Sunnis are divided into two rival camps: Taqaddom, which is headed by incumbent Speaker Mohammed Al-Halbousi, and Azm, which is led by Khamis Al-Khanjar. Taqaddom won 43 seats, while Azm collected 15.
Among the Kurds, the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Masoud Barzani, which is aligned with the US, won 32 seats, beating its rival, the pro-Iran Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, whose bloc shrank to 15 seats.
With Taqaddom and the KDP, Al-Sadr could form a bloc of 148 seats, elect a speaker, then a president, and win the call to form a Cabinet. Pro-Tehran lawmakers will likely try to lure the KDP away from Al-Sadr, mainly by promising it the presidency, which is currently held by Iraq’s other Kurdish party. While the presidency is ceremonial, it carries weight for its representation of one of Iraq’s three big ethno-sectarian blocs.
Al-Sadr could potentially form an anti-Iran bloc by teaming up with the Sunnis and Kurds that are aligned with Washington and its allies.
Since the fall of Saddam Hussein, Tehran and its proxies in Iraq have pursued one goal: The creation of a weak state controlled by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Quds Force and IRGC-backed militias.
Thanks to both Iranian meddling and the fragmentation of candidates into so many small blocs, Cabinet formation in Iraq might prove to be a lengthy and arduous process. This may give incumbent Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi an advantage. Unlike his predecessors, Al-Kadhimi did not form a party of his own to contest the elections. For staying neutral, he might once again emerge as the center of a consensus that could end the stalemate between the blocs and form a new Cabinet.
If Al-Kadhimi does stay in power, he might again urge Washington to withdraw its remaining 2,500 military advisers, presumably to take away the excuse that pro-Iran militias use to justify their continued armament and de facto independence from authorized chains of command.
This time, however, Washington can bring to Al-Kadhimi’s attention that only a small fraction of Iraqis buy into such excuses. Given the clear popular mandate in favor of disbanding the militias, America should not cut and run, but should strictly condition any downscaling of its adviser corps on Baghdad becoming able to stand on its own in the face of both religious extremist terrorists, such as Daesh, and state-sponsored terrorists like the pro-Iran militias.
*Hussain Abdul-Hussain is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy. Twitter: @hahussain.

Iraq’s elections for democracy in the face of Iran’s hegemony is a fallacy
Makram Rabah/Al Arabiya/October 25/2021
Few people look at elections in the Arab world as a means of democratic change.
This is mainly because, despite the casting of ballots, the whole electoral process is tarred with little transparency. Many of those running for office are themselves monitoring the process, and most often refuse to acknowledge the results, if it doesn’t suit them.
Last week’s Iraqi elections were no different.
While many hoped that the election would bring out the young that formed a united front in October 2019 with the ambition to force change, it didn’t happen. The eventual boycott of civil society left the floor for the traditional anti-Iran and pro-Iran factions to face off, ultimately leading to the former’s landslide victory.Naturally the losing side - the Popular Mobilization Forces, and a hodgepodge of paramilitary Shia militias funded by Iran - claimed that their resounding defeat was nothing but a scam perpetrated by the pro-US political establishment led by the incumbent Prime Minister, Mustapha al-Kadhimi.
Perhaps the irony of the pro-Iranian allegation is that al-Kadhimi did not run for office and his decision earlier in the year to refrain from forming a political party to run in the elections baffled the public at large.
Instead, the faction that handed defeat to Iran was one of their co-religionists, the infamous Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sader whose party won 73 seats in the 329-member parliament. His party has been accused time and again of rampant corruption.
If one is to properly assess the Iraqi elections it becomes clear that despite what those that run for office - or their supporters - might claim, the vote is never based on good governance and fighting corruption. It is instead a vote for sovereignty, in the face of an ever-growing Iranian expansionist project that refuses to acknowledge Iraqi sovereignty, or that country’s Shia community that refuse to conform to Iran’s masterplan.
Al-Sader’s political growth since the US-led invasion of Iraq is sufficient proof of how this inexperienced cleric, who formed his own Shia militia (Mahdi Army) in 2003, was able to rebrand himself and his movement. He declared recently that: “From now on, weapons must be confined to the hands of the state and it is forbidden to use them outside this scope, especially from those who claim to be resistance or the likes… It is time for the Iraqi people to live in peace without occupation, terrorism, or militias that kidnap, intimidate, and diminish the prestige of the state.”
In the debacle that is Iraq, al-Sader’s statement is less important than the actions of his Iranian-sponsored rivals that threatened using force to overturn the election results based on what they saw as a conspiracy to defeat their so-called axis of resistance.
In reality this axis spreading across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen has achieved nothing but the systemic spread of chaos and lawlessness.
In Iraq however, Iran has been confronted not only by al-Sader, but also by the remnants of the Iraqi state led by al-Kadhimi who has not shied away from reminding everyone, including some of his allies, that defending sovereignty reigns supreme.
Al-Kadhimi has no parliamentary bloc, but through this simple commitment he was able to keep Iraq as the international center of attention, earning respect and securing funding from around the globe.
Iran’s defeat in Iraq comes at a time when the Biden administration, and much of Europe are in a hurry to reinstate the Iranian nuclear deal, regardless if this comes at the expense of regional stability.
The reaction of Iran to its resounding defeat in Iraq is a preamble to its reaction once the nuclear deal is back on track. The chances of militias democratizing and giving up weapons are slim. Sovereignty is the priority for any elections run in the region.
This naturally does not cancel out the other important search for good governance and rule of law, but reform and illegitimate weapons, especially those fielded by Iran simply do not mix.
Consequently, the Kadhimi-Sader dynamic has once again reaffirmed or perhaps exposed the fallacy of framing elections as the ultimate gauge of democracy in a region battling Iranian hegemony.

د. ماجد رفيزاده: تصاعد التملص من العقوبات الأمريكية على إيران
The evasion of US sanctions on Iran is escalating
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/October 25/2021
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/103625/103625/
The prospect of the Iranian regime coming to the negotiating table to revive the nuclear deal with the P5+1 (the UK, Russia, China, France, the US, and Germany) appears to be very slim.
For almost six months, the Iranian regime has stated that it will come to the negotiating table “soon” or in “the next few weeks.” The EU’s Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell told the Iranian leaders: “We made it clear to the Iranians that time is not on their side and it’s better to go back to the negotiating table quickly.”
But the regime keeps stonewalling the nuclear talks. In September, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Saeed Khatibzadeh said that Tehran did not have any pre-condition for resuming the nuclear talks. “Every meeting requires prior coordination and the preparation of an agenda. As previously emphasized, the Vienna talks will resume soon and over the next few weeks,” he said. A month later, the Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi changed Iran’s position and pointed out that the US must lift sanctions if it is serious about the nuclear talks.
In the meantime, Iranian leaders continue to advance their nuclear program, and the breakout time — the period needed to manufacture enough weapons-grade uranium for one nuclear weapon — is getting shorter and shorter. Even the chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, stated in Oct. 19 that the Iranian government is “within a few months” of having enough material to build a nuclear bomb.
In further defiance, the Iranian regime is not giving full access to the International Atomic Energy Agency to monitor its nuclear sites as was agreed in February. For example, Tehran is not permitting surveillance cameras to record activities carried out at the Tesa Karaj facility, which is located west of Tehran and produces centrifuges. The IAEA’s chief, Rafael Grossi, has been trying to reach out to the Iranian leaders to resolve this issue. But they are not communicating or responding. Grossi told the Financial Times: “I haven’t been able to talk to (Iran’s) foreign minister…I need to have this contact at the political level. This is indispensable. Without it, we cannot understand each other.”
One major reason that the Iranian regime is not returning to the nuclear negotiation is because the US sanctions have less impact in putting pressure on Tehran.
Why isn’t the Iranian regime taking the nuclear talks or warnings issued by the US and the EU seriously? It is partially due to the shifting economic conditions.
Although the US sanctions have had a negative impact on Tehran’s economy when first re-imposed in 2018, they have become less effective as more countries are ignoring and violating the US sanctions. Iran is finding customers to buy its oil in spite of the sanctions. The sanctions are not crippling the regime financially or bringing it to its knees. For example, before the US Department of Treasury leveled secondary sanctions against Iran’s oil and gas sectors in 2018, Tehran was exporting over 2 million bpd. In 2019 and 2020, Tehran’s oil exports dropped to less than 200,000 bpd, which represented a decline of roughly 90 percent in Iran’s oil exports. This occurred after the previous US government, the Trump administration, decided not to extend its waiver for Iran’s eight biggest oil buyers: China, India, Greece, Italy, Taiwan, Japan, Turkey and South Korea.
But in 2021, China has ramped up its oil imports from by Iran increasing to nearly 1 million bpd. In other words, Iran is exporting approximately half of the oil it used to export before the sanctions. Iran’s revenues heavily rely on oil exports, as the sale of oil accounts for more than 80 percent of the regime’s export revenues.
Furthermore, the EU has not joined the US in imposing sanctions on the Iranian regime. In fact, the European countries are still trading with Tehran in spite of the US sanctions. From January to July 2021, the EU’s trade with Iran was nearly $3 billion. According to the Financial Tribune: “Germany remained the top trading partner of Iran during the seven months under review, as the two countries exchanged €1.01 billion ($1.17 billion) worth of goods, 7.05 percent less than the corresponding period of the year before. Italy came next with €347.96 million worth of trade with Iran.”
Even if there is a decline in the EU’s trade with Iran, it is not large; the current trade still represents roughly 90 percent of pre-sanction trade between Tehran and the EU. Central Asian countries are also continuing to trade with the Iranian regime.
There is no incentive for Tehran to come to the negotiating table because it is still exporting and importing goods and oil at a good level.
One major reason that the Iranian regime is not returning to the nuclear negotiation is because the US sanctions have less impact in putting pressure on Tehran. More countries are disregarding and violating Washington’s red tape, which helps bring revenue to the Iranian regime. In spite of the US sanctions, China is importing oil from Iran, and the European and Asian countries are still trading with Tehran.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist.