English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 25/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
For this people’s heart has grown dull, and their ears are hard of hearing, and they have shut their eyes; so that they might not look with their eyes, and listen with their ears, and understand with their heart and turn and I would heal them.
Matthew 13/10-17: “Then the disciples came and asked Jesus, ‘Why do you speak to them in parables?’He answered, ‘To you it has been given to know the secrets of the kingdom of heaven, but to them it has not been given. For to those who have, more will be given, and they will have an abundance; but from those who have nothing, even what they have will be taken away. The reason I speak to them in parables is that “seeing they do not perceive, and hearing they do not listen, nor do they understand. “With them indeed is fulfilled the prophecy of Isaiah that says: “You will indeed listen, but never understand, and you will indeed look, but never perceive. For this people’s heart has grown dull, and their ears are hard of hearing, and they have shut their eyes; so that they might not look with their eyes, and listen with their ears, and understand with their heart and turn and I would heal them.” But blessed are your eyes, for they see, and your ears, for they hear.Truly I tell you, many prophets and righteous people longed to see what you see, but did not see it, and to hear what you hear, but did not hear it.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 24-25.2022
Hochstein says border deal to be signed Thursday
Lapid confirms Israel to sign border deal with Lebanon Thursday
Lebanese Parliament fails for fourth time to elect new president
Syria says can't receive Lebanon demarcation delegation on Wednesday
Will Lebanon form new govt. by end of week amid Hezbollah attempts?
Israel says thwarted drug, weapon smuggling attempt from Lebanon
Salameh statement lowers unofficial dollar, more measures expected
Depositor takes money by force from Sidon bank for son's surgery
Geagea slams Change and independent MPs over presidential nominations
UNIFIL marks the 77th UN Day
ARAB ART FAIR is coming to Beirut
Defeating the Deadlock?/Michael Young/Carnegie MEC/October 24/2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 24-25.2022
Rishi Sunak becomes Britain’s prime minister
Israel strikes Damascus area: Syrian ministry
Will Netanyahu make a comeback in Israel's vote next week?
Zelensky criticizes Israel neutrality over Russia-Iran 'alliance'
Despite Iran Providing Arms to Russia, U.S. Still Considering Sanctions Relief for Iran
Iran denies personnel in Crimea helping Russia
Iran arrests 10 agents working for Israel
Putin’s Threats Worry Ukraine’s NATO Allies as Sign of Russian Desperation
Russian warplane falls on building in Siberia; 2 pilots die
Russian jets have crashed into apartment buildings twice in less than a week, highlighting Putin's military struggles at home
Russian state TV host suspended after he said Ukrainian children should be drowned and burned in their 'monstrous little houses'
Rights group: Turkey forces hundreds to return to Syria
Kuwait FM receives letter from UAE counterpart on boosting ties
WHO head in Middle East 'disturbed' by abuse reported by AP
Rushdie lost sight in eye, use of hand in attack

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 24-25.2022
‘We all have dreams’: Iran’s fractured opposition begins to unify in support of protest movement/Borzou Daragahi/The Independent/October 24/2022
Biden Embraces America's Fiercest Enemies: Whose Side Is He On?/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/October 24/2022
Where Do the Countries of the Middle East Fall Today in US Geopolitical Priorities?/Raghida Dergham/The National/October 24/2022
How Europe views the Iranian national uprising/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/October 24, 2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 24-25.2022
Hochstein says border deal to be signed Thursday
Naharnet /October 24/2022
Lebanon and Israel will sign a U.S.-brokered maritime border demarcation deal on Thursday, U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein said. "We're going to have a deal," Hochstein told CNN, adding that it will "hopefully" be signed this Thursday. "Well, I think that this is a really great development, a historic agreement between two enemy countries," Hochstein added. Officials from the two sides will ink the deal in separate locations this week. It will go into force as soon as the United States sends notice confirming it has received from Lebanon and Israel their separate approvals. The two sides will then deposit maritime border coordinates with the United Nations. Under the deal, Israel has full rights over the Karish gas field, which is expected to start gas production within weeks. Lebanon will have full rights to operate and explore the so-called Qana reservoir, parts of which allegedly fall in Israel's territorial waters, with Israel receiving some revenues. Right-wing opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu, who could return as premier following Israel's vote, has warned he will not be bound by the terms of a deal with Lebanon.

Lapid confirms Israel to sign border deal with Lebanon Thursday
Agence France Presse/October 24/2022
Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid confirmed Monday that Israel will on Thursday sign a "historic" sea border demarcation agreement with Lebanon. "On Thursday, we are going to sign a historic agreement with Lebanon," the Israeli premier told his visiting Dutch counterpart Mark Rutte of the U.S.-brokered deal that appears set to unlock production at Mediterranean gas fields. Israel and Lebanon, who are technically at war, agreed to terms earlier this month on the deal. An Israeli court on Sunday cleared the way for its signing after rejecting petitions demanding the approval of parliament. Israel holds elections on November 1, and the petitions additionally argued that agreements to cede territory should not be concluded during an election period. Lapid said he intended on bringing the deal to the cabinet on Thursday for a vote. "Israel will become in the near future a major supplier of gas to Europe," Lapid told Rutte in a meeting on energy cooperation between Israel and Europe, in remarks relayed by Lapid's office. "And in the meantime, we have to work together to find medium-term and long-term solutions for green energy and renewable energy," he said. Under the deal, Israel has full rights over the Karish gas field, which is expected to start gas production imminently. Lebanon will have full rights to operate and explore the so-called Qana reservoir, parts of which allegedly fall in Israel's territorial waters, with the Israel receiving some revenues.

Lebanese Parliament fails for fourth time to elect new president
Agence France Presse/October 24/2022
Lebanon’s parliament on Monday failed for the fourth time to elect a new president for the country, only a week away from the expiry of President Michel Aoun’s term. Out of 128 MPs, only 114 attended the vote’s first round. As 50 MPs cast blank ballots, MP Michel Mouawad received 39 votes and prominent historian and academic Issam Khalife garnered 10. Thirteen lawmakers meanwhile voted for “New Lebanon”, one voted for “For Lebanon”, as MP Jamil al-Sayyed cast an annulled ballot carrying “condolences” over the situation. Quorum was later lost and Speaker Nabih Berri initially announced that the next session would be held on Thursday. However, he swiftly said that he would announce the date of the upcoming session at a later date after Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab whispered in his ear. Bou Saab likely told him that the announced date coincides with U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein’s visit to the country. “The solution is to unite the opposition to obtain a majority,” Mouawad said after the session. “We extend our hand to the other under the ceiling of the state, sovereignty and reform and we will not endorse the approach of submission which would lead to prolonging the current situation,” he added. Mouawad also warned that “the consensual candidate that some political parties are seeking would have to submit his credentials to Hezbollah” and “if we accept this approach, this means that we are not offering anything to improve the lives of the Lebanese.” “I tell Hezbollah that the approach of treason accusations that is being practiced against us cannot continue,” Mouawad went on to say, stressing that he will continued with his nomination. MP Firas Hamdan meanwhile said that the majority of the Change MPs voted for Issam Khalife as MP Waddah al-Sadek announced that he voted for Mouawad, which is a first for a Change MP.“I’m a change MP who is outside the (Change) bloc,” Sadek added.“Dr. Issam Khalife has his credibility, but there is an audio recording for him in which he says that he does not want to run for president,” Sadek said. MP Ashraf Rifi for his part told MTV that some MPs of the mainly Sunni National Moderation bloc did not vote for Mouawad, which led to a decline in the votes that he received compared to Thursday’s round. “Speaker Berri’s call for dialogue is important and we support him, but it’s about time we left absurdity behind, because after the session (tentatively) scheduled for Thursday we will be facing a deadlock,” MP Hadi Abu al-Hosn told al-Jadeed TV. Elias Hankash, a lawmaker from the Kataeb Party that supports Mouawad, said that "no bloc in parliament can impose a president, not Hezbollah nor anyone else."Hankash also accused lawmakers who left parliament’s session and stripped it of quorum of "systematic disruption."Already governed by a caretaker Cabinet, crisis-hit Lebanon is hurtling towards an imminent power vacuum, with just days before the current president's term finishes at the end of the month. Aoun was elected in 2016 after a more than two-year vacancy at the presidential palace, as lawmakers made 45 failed attempts to name a candidate. Since late 2019, Lebanon has been crippled by an economic crisis, dubbed by the World Bank as one of the worst in recent history. Economic meltdown has pushed most Lebanese into poverty. Talks with the International Monetary Fund to unlock billions of dollars in loans have stalled, as Lebanese leaders have been unable to enact substantial reforms demanded by the lender and donor countries.

Syria says can't receive Lebanon demarcation delegation on Wednesday
Naharnet/October 24/2022
The Syrian government on Monday apologized for not being able to receive Wednesday a Lebanese delegation that was supposed to discuss the issue of sea border demarcation between the two countries, an official Lebanese source said. The Syrian government said the apology is related to “previously-scheduled appointments,” Al-Jazeera TV quoted the source as saying. A Syrian diplomatic source meanwhile told al-Mayadeen TV that “there was no agreement over an appointment in the first place for it be canceled.”“The Lebanese side proposed a date that was not appropriate for the Syrian side, but there has been no cancelation of an appointment nor a visit request,” the source added. LBCI television meanwhile said that “the security agencies in each of Lebanon and Syria are not enthusiastic to launch dialogue over the issue of sea border demarcation between the two countries, which was reflected in a letter that was sent to the Lebanese Foreign Ministry this evening through the Syrian embassy.”The Lebanese Presidency had announced earlier in the day that “following a phone call that President Michel Aoun held days ago with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad over sea border demarcation between the two countries, President Aoun tasked Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab with leading a Lebanese delegation to Damascus on Wednesday to hold meetings with top Syrian officials.”Aoun also met with Bou Saab on Monday and “discussed with him the nature of the mission that the Lebanese delegation will undertake with the Syrian officials as part of the demarcation of the maritime border between Lebanon and Syria.”

Will Lebanon form new govt. by end of week amid Hezbollah attempts?
Naharnet/October 24/2022
Hezbollah is pushing towards forming a new government by the end of this week, Nidaa al-Watan newspaper reported Monday, adding that ministerial sources have showed optimism regarding this matter. The daily said that calls will intensify during the coming hours with Free Patriotic chief Jebran Bassil, in order to convince him to lower his conditions. The Presidency had on Sunday dismissed as "totally baseless" media reports claiming that President Michel Aoun intends to sign "a decree accepting the government's resignation."Constitutional experts stressed that such an action does not exist in the constitution and that the caretaker cabinet, as per the constitution, had automatically been considered resigned following the May 15 parliamentary elections.

Israel says thwarted drug, weapon smuggling attempt from Lebanon
Naharnet/October 24/2022
The Israeli army said Monday it has thwarted a drug and weapon smuggling attempt from Lebanese territory into Israel overnight. "A suspect was apprehended and two handguns and 30kg of drugs were confiscated," the Israeli army stated on twitter. "We will continue to operate against any attempts to breach Israeli sovereignty," the statement said.

Salameh statement lowers unofficial dollar, more measures expected
Naharnet/October 24/2022
The dollar exchange rate dropped from LBP 40,600 to 36,000 on the black market overnight, shortly after Central Bank Governor Riad Salamah said in a statement that the Central Bank would stop buying dollars on the Sayrafa platform as of Tuesday. The unofficial exchange rate later surged to LBP 37,000. “The Banque du Liban (Central Bank) will exclusively sell U.S. dollars via the Sayrafa platform as of Tuesday, knowing that it will not purchase dollars on the Sayrafa platform from Tuesday until further announcement,” Salameh said in his statement. Asharq al-Awsat newspaper meanwhile reported Monday that “Lebanon’s financial markets are expecting important developments this week, which have the ability to create significant changes on the financial scene, especially as to the lira exchange rate and the rate of withdrawals from U.S. dollar savings, in addition to paving the way practically for the banking sector restructuring plan.”Quoting informed sources who are following up on the developments, the daily said that the Central Bank intends to issue a wave of new circulars as of the middle of this week. The circulars “will especially stipulate lowering the national currency’s official value and will specify its impact on withdrawals from deposits and banks’ balance sheets,” the sources said. “It will take effect in concurrence with the start of the implementation of the customs dollar rate in early November, after it was raised by around ten folds from LBP 1,507 to LBP 15,000,” the newspaper added. It also said that the rate of withdrawals in Lebanese pound from dollar accounts would be raised from the current LBP 8,000 while the monthly caps would be lowered.

Depositor takes money by force from Sidon bank for son's surgery
Naharnet/October 24/2022
Lebanese depositor Wafik Mohammed Kalo on Monday locked up himself and other people inside BLOM Bank’s branch in the southern city of Sidon, demanding that he be paid $5,000 from his account to pay for his son’s heart surgery. The drama ended a few hours later after the bank paid Kalo LBP 280 million. The man had locked the bank’s gate from the inside, threatening to set himself on fire and preventing anyone from entering or leaving the branch. According to Kalo, the money was needed to cover the expenses of an open heart surgery for his two-month-old son. Security forces eventually managed to convince Kalo to allow depositors who got trapped inside to leave. Kalo’s father meanwhile said that his son was not armed. “We came today after the bank’s director told us to come on Monday to take the money. A week ago we brought the papers and X-rays after the treating doctor told us that the child was suffering from a hole in his heart and needed a $5,000 open heart surgery,” the father added. “We have five accounts in the bank and we don’t want them all; we only want the surgery’s expenses. When my son asked for his right, they prevented him from entering… They want to give him the sub based on an LBP 8,000 exchange rate, knowing that all accounts would not be enough to cover for the surgery based on this rate,” the father went on to say. Kalo is the latest in a growing number of angry depositors who have forced Lebanese lenders to unlock savings trapped under informal capital controls imposed in the face of an unprecedented financial crisis. His plight echoes that of the many Lebanese who have been locked out of their savings by bank restrictions that have tightened since the start of the country's financial crash in 2019. Commercial lenders have effectively banned most foreign currency transactions, forcing depositors to withdraw their savings in the plummeting Lebanese pound, which has lost more than 95 percent of its value against the dollar on the black market. Lebanon's banks closed for a week after a series of heists on September 16. They have since reopened to business-related transactions according to an appointments system and amid tight security. Individuals can meanwhile use ATMs to carry out cash operations.

Geagea slams Change and independent MPs over presidential nominations
Naharnet/October 24/2022
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Monday lashed out at the Change and independent MPs over their nominations for the presidential election. “The way MPs behaved today was a real tragedy,” Geagea said in an interview on al-Jadeed TV, referring to the presidential election session that was held earlier in the day, which failed to produce a new president in the fourth such failure since September 29. Asked whether he was referring to the Change and independent MPs, Geagea clarified that he meant all lawmakers. “The LF, the Kataeb Party and the Progressive Socialist Party have major representation in the country,” Geagea added, addressing the Change bloc. “I cannot label the ‘non-(axis of) defiance camp’ as an opposition camp,” Geagea went on to say, criticizing the opposition parties’ failure to reach consensus over a presidential candidate. “They are rejecting to talk to us and are not proposing a candidate,” he lamented. “No one has proposed a solution or a candidate who can win a certain number of votes… Has Michel Mouawad become a traitor?” Geagea asked. Asked whether the Change and independent MPs would be responsible for presidential vacuum, the LF leader said “they certainly bear the responsibility because they are not endorsing Michel Mouawad nor proposing anyone else.”“We want a president to pull us out of the crisis and we will not engage in settlements,” Geagea added. “We want a president who would put an end to smuggling,” he said. As for his repeated announcements that he is not opposed to the election of Army chief General Joseph Aoun as president, Geagea clarified: “The army chief has neither asked us to nominate him nor not to nominate him.” Describing Gen. Aoun as an acceptable candidate, the LF leader added that he believes that Hezbollah cannot endorse someone like the army commander because he would be able to take independent decisions. “ Political contacts are certainly severed with Hezbollah except for the communication among MPs,” Geagea said, in response to a question. Slamming the Hezbollah-led camp, the LF leader said that “they want to paralyze the country because they cannot find a candidate through which they can win the battle.”“The ‘defiance camp’ has not done anything to reach consensus and they are lying… I have not rejected any serious initiative regarding the presidential election,” Geagea added. Addressing the so-called "Axis of Defiance", Geagea said: “You should have sought consensus four months prior to the president's departure.” Geagea also said that his endorsement of President Michel Aoun's nomination in 2016 was a "de facto" move that was imposed on him.

UNIFIL marks the 77th UN Day
Naharnet/October 24/2022
The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) on Monday marked the 77th United Nations Day at its headquarters in Naqoura. "Following the positive outcome of the maritime negotiations, the Mission reaffirmed its strong commitment to creating space for a political and diplomatic solution between Lebanon and Israel," UNIFIL said in a statement. “Recent events give us hope,” said UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force Commander Major General Aroldo Lázaro. “If the two countries can find an understanding at sea, my hope is that, someday soon, they will also be able to find it on land – and, inshallah (God willing), on the fundamental issues that divide them," Lázaro added. A ceremonial parade during the event featured UNIFIL peacekeepers representing 48 national contingents. Marching in formation and carrying their national flags, the peacekeepers welcomed senior officers of the Lebanese Armed Forces, Lebanese authorities and religious leaders, as well as representatives from various international organizations, NGOs and U.N. agencies. Upon the raising of the U.N., Lebanese and contingent flags, Major General Lázaro and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) representative Brigadier General Roger Helou laid wreaths at the UNIFIL Cenotaph in honor of the peacekeepers who lost their lives in the service of peace in Lebanon. In a speech for the occasion, Lázaro paid homage to the "legacy and accomplishments" of the United Nations, whose Charter came into force on this day in 1945. The United Nations “has helped pull millions of people out of starvation and poverty, vaccinated millions more against serious diseases, and negotiated peace agreements to avoid conflict all over the world, among so many other things.” Major General Lázaro continued in expressing optimism for progress in South Lebanon. “Since my arrival as Head of Mission and Force Commander, I have continually urged the parties to continue marking the Blue Line and resolve outstanding points of contention,” he said. "This would be both symbolic and pragmatic steps toward long-term stability." In closing, the Head of Mission and Force Commander underlined the "success of UNIFIL’s partnership with the Lebanese Armed Forces" and the Mission’s "unwavering commitment to achieving a permanent ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel under Security Council Resolution 1701."

ARAB ART FAIR is coming to Beirut
Naharnet/October 24/2022
ARAB ART FAIR, the first affordable art fair in the region that brings together art galleries, collectors, and independent artists, will be held for its second edition in Beirut.
Despite the difficult circumstances Lebanon faces, the most prominent art fair for independent artists is coming to Beirut to reignite the passion for art, featuring a roster of artists from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, Palestine, Egypt, Lebanon, and more who will be exhibiting their art to local and regional art lovers.
ARAB ART FAIR, the biggest art exhibition of its kind in the country since 2019, will group dozens of independent artists and host a series of panels presented by experts, curators, collectors, and scholars. This year, the fair, which specializes in displaying artworks from all social classes priced under 10,000 dollars, will include a dedicated space to display paintings and art priced at less than 1,000 dollars. The event also features a dedicated selection committee consisting of masters of art, including Saad Yagan from Syria, Nizar Daher from Lebanon, and most notably, the renowned gallerist with vast experience between Egypt and Saudi Arabia, Mohammad Talaat. The fair was held in Beirut in its first edition in the summer of 2019 before the financial crisis. Now, it's coming back with greater momentum, as the organizer “believes in Lebanon and is confident that the crisis will end, with the future holding great hope and opportunities for the country,” a press release said. Based on the principle that art is for all, the fair is open to all and does not have a dress code, entrance fee, or registration form requirements. ARAB ART FAIR will be held in the city's center, in Zaitunay Bay, from Thursday, November 3rd, until Sunday, November 6th, from 3 PM to 9 PM. For more information regarding the event and the latest updates, follow @ArabArtFair on Facebook and Instagram.

Defeating the Deadlock?
Michael Young/Carnegie MEC/October 24/2022
We may be nearing the stage where Lebanon can have any president it wants, as long as his last name is Aoun.
Lebanon is very much in the situation that had been predicted after parliamentary elections last May: There is no consensus over a replacement for President Michel Aoun; the political forces are struggling to form a government, with no guarantees that they will succeed; and the void is likely to create a new, and worse, situation that might just facilitate the election of a president who can transcend the country’s unremitting divisions.
With Aoun scheduled to leave office at the end of October, a few days ago parliament entered the ten-day period prior to the president’s departure, during which it is constitutionally obligated to convene to elect a successor. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri called for a session on October 24, but as in the preceding sessions parliamentarians failed to vote in a new president.
Where are we today? The two major Christian blocs in parliament, the one headed by the Lebanese Forces and the other by the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), have, predictably, neutralized each other. Both know that any new president will need the approval of at least one of the major Christian blocs to enjoy legitimacy, and are acting accordingly. Samir Geagea, the Lebanese Forces leader, and Gebran Bassil, the FPM leader, appear to have concluded that neither has a chance of being elected, so that both are moving on a backup plan. For Geagea, it is to work toward the election of what he calls a candidate of “confrontation” against Hezbollah; for Bassil, it is to ensure that any new president will accept Bassil’s onerous conditions if he wants to receive FPM backing. Neither scenario is easy to implement, or sustain, amid continued state disintegration and foreign pressures.
Understanding the double language of the main protagonists is essential. When Geagea says that he wants a candidate of confrontation, several things are at the back of his mind. First, he is taking a hard line in order to gain leverage in any negotiations over a compromise figure. Second, he wants to please his Saudi sponsors, by loudly proclaiming his willingness to oppose Hezbollah. But the candidate he currently supports, Michel Mouawad, is unlikely to get even the 64 votes required to be elected in a second round of parliamentary voting for president. So, behind Geagea’s bombast is a more subtle preparation for a deal that, he knows, will have to be made.
As for Bassil, he has come across as such a voracious figure, that few presidential candidates want to negotiate with him to secure FPM votes. No one doubts that Bassil aims to prepare his own election in six years’ time, so only a fool would willingly transform himself into a stepping stone for Bassil’s ambitions, while remaining his political hostage in the interim. There are fools aplenty in Lebanon, but the problem is that the parliament is now structured in such a way that neither major parliamentary alignment—the Lebanese Forces and their allies on the one hand, and Hezbollah and the FPM, with their allies, on the other—can push through a candidate who does not benefit from a broad consensus.
But then what kind of individual might emerge as a consensual figure? Because the weaker Maronite candidates are more likely to fall into Bassil’s or Geagea’s neutralizing web, this leaves few candidates who don’t risk doing so. Leading the pack is the army commander, Joseph Aoun. He heads the single national institution that retains cross-sectarian respect, is perceived as being outside partisan politics, and, personally, enjoys foreign esteem. The comments that have accompanied the possibility of his election have also been quite revealing.
Last July, Geagea mentioned that Aoun would be a credible candidate for the presidency and that the Lebanese Forces would support him “if he has good chances.” Paradoxically, this was widely interpreted as an effort to undermine Aoun’s prospects, since Geagea calculated that anyone he endorsed would have less of a chance of being accepted by Hezbollah and the FPM. From Geagea’s perspective, it made sense to undercut a rival for the presidency. Apparently Aoun was wise to the game, and unconfirmed reports at the time suggested he had made it clear to Geagea that he was unhappy with his embrace.
Bassil’s approach was more direct. Earlier this month, in an interview with Al-Jazeera, he announced that he opposed amending the constitution to elect Joseph Aoun as president. Such an amendment is necessary as Aoun is a grade 1 civil servant, which means he is required to resign two years before standing for public office, unless the constitution is altered to accommodate him. However, in the convoluted logic of Lebanese politics, Bassil’s apparent rejection could just as well have been an opening hand in eventual bargaining with Aoun over FPM support for his candidacy. In the greater scheme of things, while Bassil would prefer a weak candidate who would be more vulnerable to accepting the FPM’s conditions, Aoun does not threaten Bassil in the same way that Geagea does. He has no real base outside the military, so it remains conceivable that Bassil could change his mind about Aoun if momentum builds behind his candidacy.
But to reach such a stage, we will have to go through a typically destructive political interregnum, when the fecklessness of the political class exacerbates an already untenable socioeconomic situation. Geagea, Bassil, Prime Minister Najib Mikati, and Hezbollah all have no reason to make a move now, before they see what direction the country is taking. This will be defined by rising public discontent, further financial and economic deterioration, and more suffering, all of which will raise the heat on everyone to find a solution.
Whether Joseph Aoun comes out of this situation strengthened is unknown, and other outcomes are always possible, even if they are less likely. However, the dynamics indicate that only a figure who is above the fray, who has the means to push back against both Geagea and Bassil, who enjoys international respect, and who may not inconvenience Hezbollah for having spent years coordinating with the party, will emerge as the favorite. At present, Aoun alone appears to combine all these characteristics.
Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 24-25.2022
Rishi Sunak becomes Britain’s prime minister
Reuters/October 24, 2022
LONDON: Rishi Sunak will become British prime minister on Monday after other candidates quit the race to lead the Conservative Party, leaving him with the task of steering a deeply divided country through an economic downturn set to leave millions of people poorer. Sunak, one of the wealthiest politicians in Westminster, will be asked to form a government by King Charles, replacing Liz Truss, the outgoing leader who only lasted 44 days in the job. He defeated centrist politician Penny Mordaunt, who failed to get enough backing from lawmakers to enter the ballot, while his rival, the former prime minister Boris Johnson, withdrew from the contest saying he could no longer unite the party. “This decision is a historic one and shows, once again, the diversity and talent of our party. Rishi has my full support,” Mordaunt said in a statement as she withdrew from the race just minutes before the winner was due to be announced. The pound and British government bond prices jumped briefly on news of Mordaunt’s withdrawal, but soon returned to their previous levels. Sunak, the 42-year-old former finance minister, becomes Britain’s third prime minister in less than two months, tasked with restoring stability to a country reeling from years of political and economic turmoil. The multi-millionaire former hedge fund boss would be expected to launch deep spending cuts to try to rebuild Britain’s fiscal reputation, just as the country slides into a recession, dragged down by the surging cost of energy and food.
Britain has been locked in a state of perma-crisis ever since it voted in 2016 to leave the European Union, unleashing a battle at Westminster over the future of the country that remains unresolved to this today.
The latest bout of drama has drawn dismay in foreign capitals and ridicule from the world’s press. Sunak came to national attention when, aged 39, he became finance minister under Johnson just as the COVID-19 pandemic hit Britain, developing the successful furlough scheme. The former Goldman Sachs analyst will be the United Kingdom’s first prime minister of Indian origin. His family migrated to Britain in the 1960s, a period when many people from Britain’s former colonies moved to the country to help it rebuild after the Second World War. After graduating from Oxford University, he went to Stanford University where he met his wife Akshata Murthy, whose father is Indian billionaire N. R. Narayana Murthy, founder of outsourcing giant Infosys Ltd.

Israel strikes Damascus area: Syrian ministry
AFP/October 24, 2022
Syrian soldier was injured during the rare daytime attack.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the Israeli strikes targeted sites in the Dimas area of the Damascus countryside
DAMASCUS: Israel struck the vicinity of the Syrian capital Damascus on Monday, injuring one soldier, the Syrian defense ministry said, days after a similar strike. “The Israeli enemy carried out airstrikes from the north of the occupied Palestinian territories targeting sites near Damascus,” the ministry said in a statement, adding that a soldier was injured during the rare daytime attack. Israel, which rarely comments on individual strikes but has acknowledged carrying out hundreds, usually launches air strikes on Syria overnight. An AFP correspondent in Damascus hear loud noises as rockets fell near the capital. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the Israeli strikes targeted sites in the Dimas area of the Damascus countryside, where Iran-backed groups and the Syrian military operate. An Israeli strike on Friday targeted Syrian military sites near Damascus International Airport and in the southern countryside of the capital, according to the Britain-based war monitor. In September, five soldiers were killed in an Israeli strike around Damascus, and Israeli airstrikes in June put Damascus airport out of service for nearly two weeks. Since the civil war erupted in Syria in 2011, Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes against its northern neighbor, targeting government troops as well as allied Iran-backed forces and Hezbollah fighters. Israel has said its air campaign is necessary to stop arch-foe Iran gaining a foothold on its doorstep. Syria’s war, which erupted after the brutal repression of anti-government protests, has killed nearly half a million people and forced around half of the country’s pre-war population from their homes.

Will Netanyahu make a comeback in Israel's vote next week?
Agence France Presse/October 24/2022
A week before Israel's fifth general election in less than four years, one question dominates: will the hawkish ex-prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu return to power? Polls show he would likely need heavy backing from the country's rising extreme-right to form a government -- a scenario which, one expert warned, would spell "disaster" for Israel's democracy. Netanyahu served as premier for a total of 15 years, a record in Israel's 74-year history, before he was ousted in June 2021 by a motley alliance of ideologically divided parties united only by their opposition to him. Widely known as "Bibi", he was an ally of former US president Donald Trump and a dominant leader under whom Israeli politics shifted to the right and talks to resolve the Israel-Palestinian conflict all but stalled. Despite being on trial for corruption and breach of trust, charges he denies, and undeterred by his failure to secure a majority government in four straight elections, Netanyahu has vowed to make a comeback. As opposition leader and head of the right-wing Likud party, the largest in parliament, the 73-year-old with a reputation as a wily strategist has worked to exploit divisions in the coalition. The unlikely post-Netanyahu government included religious nationalists, centrists, left-wingers and -- for the first time in Israeli history -- an independent Arab party. Netanyahu brought them down by ordering his parliamentary allies to vote against a measure even though they all ideologically backed it: a bill ensuring that Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank could live under Israeli law. The Likud chief correctly bet that the coalition, deeply divided over the occupation, would crack over the issue.
'Most critical election'
Naftali Bennett stepped down as premier in June, saying his government was no longer tenable. Foreign Minister Yair Lapid took over as caretaker premier, and elections were called for November 1. While the coalition's collapse marked a clear tactical victory for Netanyahu, polls show that he and his allies may once more struggle to secure a 61-seat majority in the Knesset. Crucially, there appears no path towards a Netanyahu-led government without support from an extreme-right alliance known as Religious Zionism. That bloc includes Itamar Ben-Gvir, who has a history of using incendiary anti-Arab rhetoric and has voiced admiration for Baruch Goldstein, the mass murderer of Palestinians in the West Bank city of Hebron in 1994. "This election is perhaps the most critical because Netanyahu has allied himself with a racist party, and this could be disaster for Israeli democracy," said Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. "The result could be the most extreme, right-wing government that Israel has ever had," she told AFP. Lapid, a 58-year-old former television presenter who leads the centrist Yesh Atid party, has seen signs of rising support during his brief tenure as interim prime minister. He hosted US President Joe Biden, met France's Emmanuel Macron in Paris and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, and clinched a maritime border deal with hostile northern neighbor Lebanon. Lapid also oversaw a three-day army operation against Islamic Jihad militants in the blockaded Gaza Strip that, in the eyes of many Israelis, was successful.
Jostling for seats
"Lapid chose to observe this election from above, from the prime minister's bureau," wrote columnist Nahum Barnea in the leading daily Yediot Ahronot. "He chose to let everyone else scurry about, perspire, get their hands dirty and make mistakes, while he played the role of the responsible adult. "That restrained stance helped boost Yesh Atid in the polls, but it didn't help the anti-Bibi bloc."Polls late last week showed Yesh Atid set to win 24 seats, which would be a record for the party as an individual list. But the anti-Netanyahu bloc's path to 61 seats also remains cloudy and would almost certainly require another fragile agreement among ideological opponents. Under Israel's system of proportional representation, lists need to cross a threshold of 3.25 percent of the vote to secure the minimum four seats -- a hurdle that can derail coalition calculations. Some surveys indicate that the three Arab-led parties, which have decided not to run as a united bloc, are each teetering around the cut-off point, which could see them thrown out of parliament. Such a result could sway the balance of power in Netanyahu's favor. A tireless campaigner, Netanyahu was rallying Likud supporters in a local theatre in the northern city of Migdal Haemek on Sunday. Urging a strong Likud turnout on election day, he told his party faithful: "I ask you to go to all of your friends, all of your neighbors, all of your relatives, and tell them that nobody stays home."

Zelensky criticizes Israel neutrality over Russia-Iran 'alliance'
Agence France Presse/October 24/2022
President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday criticized Israel's neutrality in the Ukraine war, saying the decision by Israeli leaders not to support Kyiv had encouraged Russia's military partnership with Iran. "This alliance of theirs simply would not have happened if your politicians had made only one decision at the time... it seems that it was adopted a long time ago -– in 2014, when Russia began its aggression against Ukraine," Zelensky told a conference organized by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz. "The decision 'not to annoy' the Kremlin, not to help Ukraine for real," enabled the alliance between Moscow and Tehran, Zelensky said. Zelensky has on several occasions criticized Israel for failing to firmly oppose Russian aggression. The Israeli position has however evolved over recent months, from near neutrality to more forceful condemnations of Russia. Still, on Monday, Israeli defense minister Benny Gantz told his Ukrainian counterpart Oleksiy Reznikov that "Israel will not provide weapon systems to Ukraine." The Ukrainian president also said Russia ordered around 2,000 drones from Iran, the same kind that Kyiv says Moscow has been using in its recent attacks against Ukraine. "The disgusting sound of Iranian drones is heard in our skies every night. According to our intelligence, Russia ordered about 2,000 'Shaheds' from Iran," Zelensky said during a speech at a conference organized by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz. It was not immediately clear if Zelensky was referring to Russia's past purchases or new ones.
Zelensky also said "Iranian instructors came to teach Russians how to use drones" in Ukraine. Zelensky's speech came a few days ahead of legislative elections in Israel, on November 1.

Russia claims Ukraine in 'final stage' of creating 'dirty bomb'
Agence France Presse/October 24/2022
Moscow said Monday that Ukraine had nearly completed developing a "dirty bomb," after Russia's defense minister in calls with NATO counterparts claimed Kyiv's forces were planning to deploy the weapon. "According to the information we have, two organizations in Ukraine have specific instructions to create a so-called 'dirty bomb'. This work is in its final stage," Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov said in a statement on Monday. He said Kyiv was planning to accuse Russia of "using weapons of mass destruction in Ukraine and thus launch a powerful anti-Russian campaign in the world". The weapon would be composed of radioactive elements "creating radioactive contamination over large areas, and potentially also leading to radiation diseases" after detonation. The United Kingdom, the United States and France issued a joint statement dismissing the claim earlier on Monday. "Our countries made clear that we all reject Russia's transparently false allegations that Ukraine is preparing to use a dirty bomb on its own territory," according to the statement. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the reaction from the West was "in line with their reckless support for their protege (Ukraine President Volodymyr) Zelensky, their indulgence for his Russophobic actions and destruction of civilian population," during a press conference Monday. Zelensky on Sunday refuted the accusation and called for a harsh answer from the West. "If Russia calls and says that Ukraine is allegedly preparing something, it means one thing: Russia has already prepared all this," Zelensky said in a video address on social media.

Despite Iran Providing Arms to Russia, U.S. Still Considering Sanctions Relief for Iran
FDD/October 24/2022
Latest Developments
Russia conducted strikes against targets across Ukraine over the past week using drones acquired from Iran. These Iranian drones — including the Shahed-136, the Shahed-131, and the Mohajer-6 — have enhanced Russia’s ability to conduct strikes against the Ukrainian military, critical infrastructure, and civilian targets. Despite the U.S. and EU’s imposition of sanctions on Iran for transferring the drones, Kyiv’s allies in London, Paris, Berlin, and Washington have not rescinded their offer of other sanctions relief to Iran as part of a revived nuclear deal. They have also refrained from snapping back prior UN sanctions on Iran that would restore the UN arms embargo and maintain key missile restrictions indefinitely.
Expert Analysis
“The acquisition of Iranian drones helps Russia fill critical shortfalls in its surveillance and long-range strike capabilities. These drones will allow Russia to continue its illegal war and kill more Ukrainians who are attempting to defend their homeland. Washington and like-minded allies should provide Ukraine with additional air defenses as well as long-range strike weapons so that Ukraine can target drone launch sites.” – Ryan Brobst, Research Analyst at FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power
“Washington, London, Paris, and Berlin need to make clear that a new Iran deal that would subsidize attacks on Ukraine by lifting sanctions is off the table. Britain, France, and Germany have the power to restore the UN arms embargo on Iran at any moment simply by completing the snapback of prior UN sanctions.” – Richard Goldberg, FDD Senior Advisor
Capabilities of Russian-Operated Iranian Drones
Iran has provided Russia with the Shahed-136 and its smaller cousin, the Shahed-131, which are loitering munitions — a type of drone capable of flying above its targets for long periods of time before diving down, armed with a warhead that destroys the drone and the target. According to Yuriy Ignat, spokesman for Ukraine’s Air Force Command, the Shahed-136 has a range of 1,000 km, which would allow Russia to strike anywhere in Ukraine. On October 11, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky cited Ukrainian intelligence as saying that Moscow hopes to buy 2,400 more Shahed-136s.
The Mohajer-6 conducts reconnaissance and increases the Russian military’s ability to find and target Ukrainian forces on the battlefield, compensating for prior losses of Russian surveillance. This is a significant threat to Ukrainian forces and could disrupt further offensive operations.
Snapback of UN Sanctions
Under UN Security Council Resolution 2231, the international arms embargo on Iran expired in 2020. Key restrictions on missile technology expire next year. A nuclear deal that would maintain UNSCR 2231’s expiration dates would provide international legitimacy to Iran’s drone transfers. To restore the arms embargo and maintain the missile embargo indefinitely, any JCPOA participant has the right under UNSCR 2231 to snap back prior UN Security Council resolutions if Iran is in significant non-performance of its JCPOA commitments. Iran’s continued nuclear development most certainly meets that legal threshold.

Iran denies personnel in Crimea helping Russia
AFP/October 24, 2022
TEHRAN: Tehran on Monday rejected US allegations that Iranian military personnel are on the ground in Russian-occupied Crimea to help Moscow carry out drone attacks in Ukraine. “We strongly reject this news,” Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani told reporters, when asked about the White House claim. On Thursday, White House national security spokesman John Kirby said that Iranian forces are “on the ground in Crimea” to assist Russia in its operations, adding that the personnel are trainers and tech support workers. In response, Kanani on Monday said that Washington “aims to deviate the public opinion from the destructive role they have in the Ukraine war by standing on one side of the conflict and heavily exporting weapons and equipment to Ukraine.”The United States, as well as Britain and the European Union, has already imposed sanctions on Iran as they, alongside Kyiv, accuse Iran of providing drones to Russia to be used in the Ukraine war. Kirby said that “Tehran is now directly engaged on the ground, and through the provision of weapons that are impacting civilians and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.”Iran has denied supplying Russia with weapons for use in Ukraine, and the Kremlin has accused the West of seeking to put “pressure” on Tehran with the allegations. “The Islamic republic of Iran has repeatedly announced that it is not a party to the war in Ukraine,” Kanani added. “We are not exporting weapons to any side of the conflict for war in Ukraine.”
Last month, Kyiv decided to significantly reduce its diplomatic relations with Tehran over alleged arms deliveries to Moscow.

Iran arrests 10 agents working for Israel
Reuters/October 24, 2022
DUBAI: Iran has arrested 10 agents working for Israel in west Azerbaijan province, Fars news agency reported. These people were in direct video communication with Mossad officers, it added, referring to the Israeli intelligence agency.
Iran and Israel are longtime foes. Israel accuses Iran of backing militant attacks against it, while Iran says Israel has carried out a number of killings of Iranian officials. Israel does not confirm nor deny reports of such actions. “They set fire to cars and homes of people affiliated with the security apparatus and received cash for taking photos which they sent to Mossad agents,” said Fars, without elaborating.

Putin’s Threats Worry Ukraine’s NATO Allies as Sign of Russian Desperation
Natalia Drozdiak, Alberto Nardelli and Alex Wickham/Bloomberg/October 24, 2022
Ukraine’s allies are increasingly concerned that desperation in the Kremlin over an unrelenting string of battlefield failures may lead Russia to escalate its war, possibly using a massive attack on a target like a dam or even a weapon of mass destruction.
For the moment, there’s no sign Moscow is actually making preparations for such a strike, even as it ratchets up the rhetoric, according to officials from North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence. US and European defense ministers rejected allegations from Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu in a rare round robin of phone calls Sunday alleging Kyiv is preparing to use a “dirty bomb.”Instead, the view among Ukraine’s allies is that the Kremlin is trying to scare them with the talk of such “unthinkable” weapons — along with strikes on the country’s civilian power grid — into reducing their supplies of weapons and other support for Kyiv. So far, the intimidation campaign hasn’t worked. As Vladimir Putin’s war enters its ninth month with his troops steadily losing ground — land the Russian president last month claimed to annex as Russian territory and vowed to defend with all available means — the Kremlin has few options for turning things around quickly. The 300,000 reservists Putin called up will need weeks or months to train and inventories of the missiles Russia has lately been using to target Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure are running short, western officials said.
“It is Russia trying to dissuade the West from further helping Ukraine but it really is a sign of desperation,” said Samantha de Bendern, an associate fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, pointing to Russia’s losses on the battle field along with its dwindling supply of weapons. “They can't produce weapons fast enough to keep up with what the west is giving Ukraine, so this is a message to the West: stop messing in Ukraine otherwise things will get really bad.”The UK, US and France have dismissed Shoigu’s claims that Kyiv plans to use a “dirty bomb,” which could combine conventional explosives and radioactive material on its own territory, as “a pretext for escalation” and vowed a harsh response. Privately, Kyiv’s allies are wargaming how they might react, though officials have been tight-lipped about the possibilities they’re considering for fear of appearing to lock themselves into particular actions. They are also planning on how to keep up weapons supplies, humanitarian relief and gathering evidence of war crimes in the event of a massive attack.
While Russia’s public threats it might use tactical nuclear weapons have raised fears, officials from NATO states said they haven’t seen any of the telltale preparations that would normally precede that. Western officials said after the Shoigu calls they still believed the likelihood of any use of nuclear weapons was limited. Russia has regularly made unfounded allegations about Ukraine’s alleged plans for escalation. The Kremlin still has a range of options for escalation short of nuclear arms that it’s likely to turn to first, one of the people said. Among those may be an attack on the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, which would cause massive flooding downstream and potentially threaten cooling-water supplies for Ukraine’s nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia. Why Russia’s Nuclear Threats Are Difficult to Dismiss: QuickTake
To date, the threats from Russia since Ukrainian forces began retaking large swathes of territory in August haven’t undermined support for Kyiv among its allies. But Ukraine still isn’t getting all the kinds of weapons it is asking for, with countries reluctant to deliver long-range missiles, as well as modern tanks, for fear of triggering more escalation. Unable to turn back Ukraine’s advances on the front lines, Russia has targeted critical infrastructure in Ukraine in recent weeks in efforts to terrorize civilians and encourage a wave of refugees to Europe that might weaken support from allies, Ukrainian and European officials said. How and Why Russia Is Using Iranian Drones in Ukraine: QuickTake
Kyiv’s troops haven’t been able to replicate the early sweeping successes of the campaign, although they continue to advance. Some of that seeming slowness has been deliberate. Ukraine’s forces are moving cautiously near Kherson in the south, seeking to avoid a battle that destroys the city like the one that left Mariupol in ruins, western officials said. The onset of winter is also likely to complicate fighting in some areas, limiting visibility and mobility. Still, the advanced weapons, along with cold-weather gear, supplied by the US and Europe may give Ukraine’s forces an advantage in the cold against Russia’s less-well-equipped army. One official said he was confident Ukrainian forces could eventually take back Kherson and, if weapons continue to flow, make significant advances on all fronts by spring, though possibly at a high cost of casualties. Heavy rains may also bring even more challenges over the winter months, but the Ukrainian side will slowly try to press ahead as they are now, Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, said in an interview with Ukrainska Pravda.“Gradually we will move forward little by little, they will lose little by little,” he said.
--With assistance from Marc Champion .

Russian warplane falls on building in Siberia; 2 pilots die
MOSCOW (AP)/October 24, 2022
A Russian warplane slammed into a residential building in the Siberian city of Irkutsk on Sunday, killing both crewmembers, authorities said. It was the second time in less than a week that a combat jet crashed in a residential area in Russia. The Irkutsk region's governor, Igor Kobzev, said the Su-30 fighter jet came down on a private, two-story building housing two families. He said that there were no casualties on the ground as the building's five residents were out at the moment of the crash.He said the residents would be offered temporary accommodation and compensation. The cause of the crash wasn’t immediately known and an official probe has started. On Oct. 17, an Su-34 bomber crashed near an apartment building in the Sea of Azov port of Yeysk and exploded in a giant fireball, killing 15 and injuring another 19. The crashes might reflect the growing strain that the fighting in Ukraine has put on the Russian air force. The United Aircraft Corporation, a state-controlled conglomerate of Russian aircraft-making plants, said in a statement that the plane in Sunday's incident came down during a training flight before its delivery to the air force. The jet carried no weapons during the flight. Surveillance camera videos posted on Russian social networks showed the fighter in a nearly vertical dive and then exploding. Other videos showed the building engulfed by flames and firefighters deployed to extinguish the blaze. Irkutsk, a major industrial center of more than 600,000 in eastern Siberia, is home to an aircraft factory producing Su-30s, a supersonic twin-engine, two-seat fighter that has been a key component of the Russian air force. China, India and many other countries also use the planes. Sunday's crash was the 11th reported noncombat crash of a Russian warplane since Moscow sent its troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24. Military experts have noted that as the number of Russian military flights increased sharply during the fighting, so did the number of crashes.

Russian jets have crashed into apartment buildings twice in less than a week, highlighting Putin's military struggles at home
Jake Epstein/ Business Insider/October 24, 2022
A Russian warplane crashed in Siberia on Sunday, killing both pilots.
The crash was the second time in less than a week a Russian military aircraft slammed into a residential area, causing fatalities.
The deadly crashes come as Russia's military also struggles abroad in its fight in Ukraine. A Russian fighter jet crashed into an apartment building on Sunday in the Siberian city of Irkutsk, killing both pilots, Russia's Emergency Situations Ministry said. It's the second time in less than a week that a Russian warplane crashed into a residential area, resulting in fatalities. "The Su-30 crashed into a private wooden apartment building during a test flight," the ministry said in a Sunday statement, adding that there were no civilian casualties. It said the crash caused a 2,150-square-foot-large fire, noting that "at the moment, open fire has been eliminated."Video footage that was published to Russian state media appears to show the warplane plummet in a nose dive before falling behind a row a trees, where it exploded in a massive fireball. A slightly longer video published to social media by a Ukrainian journalist also appears to capture the incident. Insider was unable to immediately verify the footage. The deadly crash occurred in southern Russia's Irkutsk, a city of just under 620,000 residents not far from the country's border with Mongolia. The Washington Post reported that local authorities declared a state of emergency in the district where the crash occurred, and Russia's state-owned aerospace company United Aircraft Corporation will investigate the incident. Sunday's crash in Russia is the second fatal incident involving a Russian warplane in less than a week. On October 17, a Russian Su-34 strike fighter caught fire during a training mission and crashed into a residential building in western Russia's port city of Yeysk. At least 13 people were killed in the accident, which led Russian authorities to say that the two pilots — who managed to eject from the aircraft before it crashed — could face criminal charges.
Though military accidents happen regularly, crashes in residential areas are less common, as professional, modern militaries tend to The deadly incidents seem to point to problems within Russian President Vladimir Putin's military at home, problems that come as his forces continue to face battlefield setbacks and suffer substantial losses abroad in Ukraine. Some casualty estimates for the Russian military in Ukraine are as high as 90,000. Ukrainian troops are advancing along the war's eastern front and also pushing toward the key southern city of Kherson, an early Russian win which has been under Russian occupation since the early days of the war. Russian officers and medics are reported to have evacuated, leaving many inexperienced and newly drafted soldiers — who have complained that they are ill-equipped — with the task of defending the city from the advancing Ukrainian forces.
Last week, Russia began frantically started to move tens of thousands of civilians out of the city, signaling an expectation of intense urban warfare. In addition to high casualty counts and losses of territory, Russian forces have also lost a significant number of armored vehicles, including some of its modern tanks. Some Russian vehicles captured by Ukraine have actually been put back into service while the Russian army has at times had to pull old, obsolete vehicles out of storage. As Russian troops falter on the front lines, Putin's forces, which are running low on long-range precision guided munitions, have in recent weeks become increasingly reliant on the use of Iranian-made suicide drones — identified as the Shahed-136 type — for Blitz-style attacks on civilians and infrastructure targets across Ukraine. "Russia is likely expending a high number of Iranian Shahed-136 UAVs in order to penetrate increasingly effective Ukrainian air defences," Britain's defense ministry said in a Monday intelligence update. "It is likely using them as a substitute for Russian-manufactured long-range precision weapons which are becoming increasingly scarce."

Russian state TV host suspended after he said Ukrainian children should be drowned and burned in their 'monstrous little houses'
Mia Jankowicz/Business Insider/October 24, 2022
Russia Today host Anton Krasovsky was suspended after calling for Ukrainian children to be killed.
Krasovsky aimed his comments at Ukrainian children who saw the Soviet Union as occupiers in the 1980s.
Ukraine's Foreign Minister called the remarks "aggressive genocide incitement."
A top host on a Russian state-controlled media outlet has been suspended after he called for Ukrainian children who viewed Soviet Russia as an occupier to be drowned or burned in their homes, Reuters reported. Russia Today (RT) host Anton Krasovsky also said Ukraine is "not supposed to exist at all" and joked about Russian soldiers raping "grannies" on one of the network's shows last week, per translations by journalist Julia Davis, who runs the Russian Media Monitor. Krasosvky apologized in a social media post on Monday, saying he got "carried away" and is "really embarrassed," according to Reuters. Russia's investigative committee, which deals with serious crimes, has ordered a probe, the outlet reported. RT's director, Margarita Simonyan, said in a Telegram post on Sunday that the remarks were "wild and disgusting" and said that the network is severing ties with him "for now."
Davis posted a clip of the conversation, with subtitles, to Twitter: In the conversation, Russian science fiction writer Sergei Lukyanenko spoke of having visited Ukraine during its membership of the Soviet Union in the 1980s, and said he recalled meeting children who believed that they were under Russian occupation, rather than part of the Soviet state. Krasovsky replied: "Just drown those children, drown them," before going on to describe Ukrainians as having "piece of shit little houses." "There are masses of awful, monstrous little houses, they shit all over the Carpathian Mountains," he went on. "Shove them right into those huts and burn them up."He went on to assert that Ukraine is "not supposed to exist at all." He also made crude remarks about a recent claim by a UN official that Russian soldiers being given viagra in order to commit rape as part of the current war in Ukraine.
He spoke sarcastically about viagra being "handed out to our soldiers for them to rape Ukrainian grannies," per Davis' translation. "God, those grannies would spend their burial savings to get raped by Russian soldiers," he added. The remarks have provoked widespread outrage, with Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba calling the words "aggressive genocide incitement" and calling for RT to be banned worldwide. Krasosvky, who hosted the show "The Antonym," is currently under EU sanctions as a propagandist. RT was banned in the EU in March over systematic disinformation about the war in Ukraine, Reuters reported.

Rights group: Turkey forces hundreds to return to Syria
AP/October 24, 2022
ISTANBUL: Hundreds of Syrian men and boys were detained, beaten and forcibly returned to their country by Turkish authorities over a six-month period, a leading human rights group said Monday. The treatment of migrants living in Turkey under temporary protection is a breach of international law, New York-based Human Rights Watch said in a report. The Turkish government has in the past rejected accusations of forcibly returning refugees to Syria. Turkey houses the world’s largest refugee population, mostly 3.6 million Syrians who fled the decade-long war in their country.
Human Rights Watch said deported Syrians told researchers that Turkish officials arrested them in their homes, workplaces and on the street. They were then detained in poor conditions, with most suffering beatings and abuse, and forced to sign documents agreeing to “voluntarily” return to Syria. After being driven in handcuffs to the Syrian border — journeys sometimes lasting up to 21 hours — they were forced across at gunpoint, the Syrians said. “In violation of international law Turkish authorities have rounded up hundreds of Syrian refugees, even unaccompanied children, and forced them back to northern Syria,” said Nadia Hardman, refugee and migrant rights researcher at Human Rights Watch. The legal principle of nonrefoulement, which Ankara is bound to by international treaty, prohibits the return of anyone to a place where they would face a real risk of persecution, torture or a threat to life. The UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria last month restated that Syria is not safe for returnees. Amid a dire economic crisis, sentiment toward refugees in Turkey has turned for the worse, with attacks on Syrian homes and businesses. Facing approaching elections, the government now aims to return increasing numbers of people to areas of northern Syria under the control of the Turkish military. Earlier this month a Turkish official said nearly 527,000 Syrians had returned voluntarily. Announcing a home-building project in Syria’s northwest Idlib region in May, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said it would facilitate the return of 1 million refugees from Turkey. Erdogan has recently signaled a change in policy toward Syria, suggesting the possibility of talks with Syrian President Bashar Assad. Ankara previously demanded Assad’s removal as it backed opposition groups. Many Syrians living in Turkey fear warming relations could led to greater pressure on them to return. “Although Turkey provided temporary protection to 3.6 million Syrian refugees, it now looks like Turkey is trying to make northern Syria a refugee dumping ground,” Hardman said. Human Rights Watch interviewed 37 Syrian men and two boys between February and August, as well as relatives of those deported to Syria. They all said they were deported together with dozens or hundreds of others and were forced to sign forms they understood to be voluntary repatriation agreements. One 26-year-old from the north Syrian city of Aleppo said a Turkish official told him that anyone who tried to re-enter Turkey would be shot. Hardman said the European Union should suspend its funding of migration detention and border controls until forced deportations end. Under a 2016 deal, the EU has provided 6 billion euros in aid to Turkey in return for reducing the flow of migrants to Europe.

Kuwait FM receives letter from UAE counterpart on boosting ties
Arab News/October 24/2022
DUBAI: Kuwait’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Salem Al-Jaber Al-Sabah received a letter from the UAE’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed on boosting bilateral relations between the two countries, the Kuwait News Agency (KUNA) reported on Sunday.
UAE Ambassador to Kuwait Matar Al-Neyadi delivered the letter during a meeting at the ministry’s headquarters, according to KUNA.

WHO head in Middle East 'disturbed' by abuse reported by AP
Associated Press/October 24/2022
The head of the World Health Organization's Eastern Mediterranean region told staff in an internal email that he is "very disturbed" by allegations reported by the Associated Press last week that the U.N. health agency's Syria director misspent millions, abused staff and violated the organization's own COVID-19 protocols as the pandemic swept across the war-torn country.
In a message sent to all staff in the Middle East on Friday, Dr. Ahmed Salim Al-Mandhari said "the allegations negatively impact the people of Syria, whom we strive to serve."
This week, two members of WHO's ethics department in Geneva, including its director, are visiting the agency's Eastern Mediterranean headquarters in Cairo, which oversees Syria.
"The purpose of the visit is to advance awareness through various sessions, on the ethical conduct, principles, values and expectations," staff were told in an internal email sent on behalf of WHO's director of business operations in Cairo.
The AP on Thursday published an investigation based on more than 100 confidential U.N. emails, documents and other materials showing that WHO staffers told investigators the agency's Syria representative, Dr. Akjemal Magtymova, engaged in abusive behavior, pressured WHO staff to sign contracts with high-ranking Syrian government politicians and plied government officials with gifts. Magtymova declined to comment and called the allegations "defamatory."
The misconduct claims from more than a dozen WHO staffers have triggered one of the biggest internal probes in years, involving more than 20 investigators.
"As the investigation continues, we have already taken mitigating action," Al-Mandhari said in his message to staff, referring to the decision to name an acting Syria representative in May. "We also proactively informed our donor partners of the ongoing investigation." Still, Magtymova remains in her position and continues to draw a director-level salary.
Karam Shaar, a Syria expert at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, said that although there have been rumors of U.N. corruption in Syria for years, the AP report showed that "they are more extreme than we ever thought."
"What reportedly happened at the WHO Syria office is particularly egregious because at this point in time, Syrians have never been more vulnerable," Shaar said. "It's exactly at this time that WHO should be responsible, yet we have never heard as serious allegations from any other U.N. agency. The charges against WHO are by far the worst."Syria's health system has been devastated by more than a decade of war, and for years the country has relied almost exclusively on humanitarian aid. Nearly 90% of the population lives in poverty and more than 7 million people have been displaced by the conflict.
Adam Kamradt-Scott, a professor specializing in global health at the European University Institute in Italy, said that because WHO's funds come from taxpayers, the agency must prove its spending is warranted. Financial documents obtained by the AP showed, among other examples, that WHO's Magtymova once spent more than $11,000 of WHO funds on a party mostly to honor her own achievements during COVID-19. Numerous WHO staffers also alleged that Magtymova used WHO funds to buy inappropriate gifts for Syrian government officials, including gold coins and expensive cars. "If it were any other context than the U.N. and there was a misappropriation of funds, you would likely see employees being held criminally responsible," Kamradt-Scott said. "But we still have a situation where WHO staff are essentially investigating other WHO staff, which is not exactly the best approach."
In his email to WHO staffers in the Eastern Mediterranean, regional director Al-Mandhari encouraged officials to report suspected misconduct through WHO's own "integrity hotline."
Eight WHO personnel who complained internally about Magtymova's reported misconduct as early as last year told the AP their concerns have yet to be addressed. One former Syrian staffer wrote to the WHO chief earlier this month, pleading for help after earlier emails went unanswered. "I would like to inquire about the next step regarding the damages due to stress caused by workplace and the potential loss of employment as a result of harassment," wrote the former employee, who asked for $35,000 in compensation. "Your support and feedback in this regard is essential to save the image of WHO in my beloved country, Syria." WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has not responded, despite insisting in the past that WHO has "zero tolerance" for misconduct. According to WHO figures, there are more than 250 ongoing internal investigations involving abusive behavior or sexual exploitation and harassment. Sheba Crocker, the U.S. ambassador to the U.N. in Geneva, said the U.S. was in contact with WHO and was closely following its internal probe in Syria, where it is a major U.N. donor. "Responsible leadership as well as stewardship of member state resources must always be a requirement for leadership positions in international organizations," Crocker said in a statement. Natasha Hall, a senior fellow in the Middle East Program at Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies, said there were structural failures that consistently allowed for U.N. abuses to occur. "The knee-jerk reaction in the U.N. is to just cover up these violations and hope they go away," she said, comparing the U.N. response in Syria to the Catholic Church's handling of the sexual abuse of children. "Unless donor governments collectively push back on this, it's likely we will keep hearing about these kinds of abuses."

Rushdie lost sight in eye, use of hand in attack
Agence France Presse/October 24/2022
Author Salman Rushdie lost vision in one eye and was left "incapacitated" in a hand after he was stabbed in the United States in August, his agent said in an interview published this weekend. The 75-year-old writer, who had received several death threats after the publication of his "The Satanic Verses", was stabbed several times in the neck and abdomen before he was due to give a talk in the state of New York. Rushdie was then air-lifted to a nearby hospital for emergency surgery but his condition had improved in the weeks after. "He's lost the sight of one eye... He had three serious wounds in his neck. One hand is incapacitated because the nerves in his arm were cut. And he has about 15 more wounds in his chest and torso," Andrew Wylie told Spanish daily El Pais, providing an update on Rushdie's health. The injuries "were profound... it was a brutal attack", Wylie added. He would not give any information about the writer's whereabouts, or whether he was still in hospital, but said: "He's going to live." The British author had lived in hiding for years after Iran's first supreme leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini ordered his killing for what he deemed the blasphemous nature of "The Satanic Verses". The main suspect, Hadi Matar, a 24-year-old from New Jersey with roots in Lebanon, was arrested immediately after the attack on Rushdie and he then pleaded not guilty during a hearing in New York state in mid-August. The attack sparked outrage in the West but was praised by extremists in Muslim countries like Iran and Pakistan.

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‘We all have dreams’: Iran’s fractured opposition begins to unify in support of protest movement
Borzou Daragahi/The Independent/October 24/2022
Iran’s long fragmented and dispersed opposition has begun unifying ranks against Tehran’s clerical regime and outlining a vision for the country amid weeks of anti-government protests sparked by the death-in-custody of a 22-year-old woman accused of violating the country’s Islamic modesty rules.
On Saturday, as many as 100,000 Iranians of a multitude of political leanings and ethnic origins gathered in central Berlin for a rare show of unity against the 43-year-rule of the Tehran regime. It followed a 20 October Washington press conference by Reza Pahlavi, eldest son of Iran’s last monarch, who called for unity and the formation of a plan to replace the Islamic Republic with a transitional government. Earlier, a group of activists in Iran issued a proposed charter that would guide a possible post-regime Iran toward elections.
“We all have dreams. In our dream prisoners are not sentenced to death in three-minute trials,” Hamed Esmaeilion, the Iranian-Canadian activist who organised the Berlin event, said in a speech on Saturday.
“In this dream, the oppressors are not putting chains around the neck of writers and poets. In this dream no one dares to suppress the minorities, or to imprison a worker because of his writings or beating and then torturing him to death.”
The regime of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains firmly in control of Iran’s plethora of overlapping security forces and has shown ruthless resolve to remain in power. At least 248 protesters, including 33 juveniles have been killed at the hands of the regime and at least 12,575 arrested, according to Hrana, an Iranian human rights network.
Deep rifts remain between Iran’s monarchists, leftists and liberals, between the nationalists and ethic minorities who have borne the brunt of the regime’s repression for decades. There remain disconnects between Iranians inside the country, who lived through the traumas of the Iran-Iraq war during the first rocky decade of the Islamic Republic, and those more vocal members of the diaspora, mostly in the West, who have sometimes not stepped foot in the country they claim to represent.
But the protest movement triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini has augured unprecedented unity.
It is among the worst challenges to the regime since it was established in 1979. Protesters take to the streets daily. University campuses have become hotbeds of anti-regime activity, including on Monday, when protests erupted at a number of campuses.
In an extraordinary confrontation captured on video on Sunday, pro-regime Basiji paramilitaries claiming to be students barricaded the canteen at Tehran’s elite Sharif University to prevent female and male students from dining together in violation of Islamic rules. The opposition students pushed their way through the barricades, and took control of the space, and began chanting anti-government slogans. It was unclear whether they ever had a chance to dine.
On Sunday the regime announced plans to post military officers on campuses in an apparent attempt to intimidate students. High schools have also been hit by protests, and on Saturday teachers announced nationwide strike. Labour actions have also hit Iranian commerce including in the retailing and food production and on the peripheries of the petrochemical and oil industries.
Street protests, though mostly small, are expanding geographically, and ratling a regime obsessed with maintaining control. A resident of an ultra-conservative Tehran neighbourhood said that he had spotted anti-regime graffiti on walls and heard nighttime anti-regime slogans shouted from rooftops in his district for the first time late last week, and had even spotted a small protest gathering.
Videos show women flouting hijab rules in public spaces, including in parks and on public transport.
Experts say that in an environment that many Iranians inside the country and abroad see as potentially a prelude to the 43-year Tehran regime’s demise, there is an attempt to avoid what many regard as key mistakes in the run-up to Iran’s overthrow of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and subsequent establishment of the modern world’s first theocracy by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1979.
“Nobody wanted to ask any hard questions about what kind of regime would follow the Shah because there was this sense that asking those kinds of questions might open up the divisions amongst the opposition to the Shah and for the sake of unity,” said Roham Alvandi, a historian specialising in Iran at the London School of Economics.
“People overlooked all of that and just focused on the immediate goal of toppling the Shah. There is certainly a determination now not to repeat that mistake of the past, to actually try to have an open discussion about what kind of system would replace the Islamic Republic.”
Mr Esmaelion, a dentist and blogger who lost his wife and daughter after the Revolutionary Guards shot down Ukrainian Airways flight 752 in 2020, apparently mistaking it from an incoming American missile, has emerged as a leader of the fragmented opposition. He captivated the tens of thousands of protesters in the German capital.
He described an Iran in which “teachers, workers, filmmakers and activists are not in prison,” where no one shoots down passenger planes, or abducts journalists or kills protesters in the streets.
“In this dream, wind will blow through women’s hair,” he said. Mr Pahlavi, 61, is the most well-known Iranian opposition figurehead and even some opposed to monarchy have suggested as a leader of a possible transition period. At a press appearance on Thursday, he called for a unified transitional authority with the aim of leading to a constituent assembly, and urged members of the armed forces now fighting in streets against Iranians to defect.
“We must get united so that pro-democracy forces open dialogue with the world,” he said. “An interim government should take measures such as guaranteeing people’s freedoms and rights, securing people’s livelihood, regulating foreign policy to ensure Iran’s interests, and holding a referendum.”
In Tehran, a small group of intellectuals and longtime activists who requested anonymity, in consultation with scholars and jurists, assembled a nine-point charter that describes the formation of a two-year transitional council with the aim of managing the country’s affairs ahead of forming democratic, secular and inclusive government.
“We have been trying to find a way out of the worsening political impasse, stagnant economy, violation of basic freedoms, and backward culture,” a member of the group said in response to emailed questions.
“A massive amount of people power has been released that must be harnessed to effect change. We believe that the government will continue to do what it has always done at times like this: ignore the will of the people. In order to prevent bloodshed and instability, we are trying to prepare for what is to come.”
Up until recent weeks western intelligence and diplomatic services had very little confidence that any domestic challenge could bring an end to the Iranian regime. Even now there are few signs of an imminent collapse, such as defections in the armed forces.
But experts say the regime’s pillars of support have steadily eroded as the country has changed demographically and its economy has faltered. The weeks of protest and mass civil disobedience following the death of Amini have been unprecedented.
“When you speak to people at home and at work, it is patently obvious that the state has lost all legitimacy,” said a Tehran activist involved in the drafting of the charter. “The genie cannot be put back into the bottle, and they know it. The only thing that keeps them in power is sheer use of force. You can hardly drive 50 metres down any street without seeing anti-government graffiti on the walls or women flouting the dress code. The geographical distribution is wider than anything this country has ever experienced.”
In live discussion forums on the apps Clubhouse and Twitter Spaces, Iranians abroad and those inside who manage to evade the regime’s internet restrictions have been urging fellow opponents to focus their attention on helping those on the streets and presenting a common front. They talk about coming up with strategies to get money and resources to the protesters. They discuss the benefits and drawbacks of violent resistance. They debate strategies to get the so-called “grey” layers of society who are on the fence about protesting to join the ranks of the opposition.
“Let’s put the flags aside,” said one speaker in an online forum, in response to worries about incessant squabbling within the opposition. “Let’s put the factional debates aside. Let’s show the world that we are unified, calm and mature.”

Biden Embraces America's Fiercest Enemies: Whose Side Is He On?
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/October 24/2022
These members of Congress, [Saudi author Mohammed Al-Saed] implied, either do not know or are conveniently "forgetting" that Iran has been at least as brutal to Americans as Saudi Arabia has.
While the gruesome murder of Osama bin Laden's good friend, Jamal Khashoggi -- whose dream was to "establish an Islamic state anywhere" -- cannot be ignored, Iran's regime has created a list of hostile acts against the US at least as long.
This simplified list does not even include that Iran is presently supplying Russia with kamikaze drones and trainers as well as missiles to use against the civilians of Ukraine. Just suppose for an instant that Iran possessed nuclear weapons instead?
Iran already controls four Middle Eastern countries in addition to its own -- Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq -- as well as countless terrorist proxies, including Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Since 1979, the Iranian regime has repeated its plan of "Death to Israel" and "Death to America." And now the Biden administration still wishes it could "reward" Iran with legitimized nuclear weapons, the ballistic missiles to deliver them, and a trillion dollars? How can anyone see that as "fair"?
Yet Biden has threatened there will be "consequences" for Saudi Arabia because it declined to help the US enrich and empower its most openly bellicose enemy. How could it? Had Biden offered to drop the new Iran deal, the Saudi answer might well have been different.
"Saudi Arabia is just defending its interests and security, which is under threat from Washington's new allies in Iran." — Mohammed Al-Saed, Saudi author, Okaz, October 17, 2022.
[T]he Biden administration was damaging America's relations with its historical friends and allies while sending "positive messages" to America's fiercest enemies and haters. — Dr. Ibrahim Al-Nahhas, Saudi political analyst, Al-Riyadh, October 19, 2022.
[T]he Biden administration has preferred to attack Saudi Arabia than deal with the use of Iranian drones by the Russians in Ukraine... Were it not for American and European leniency, especially since the era of Barack Obama, who tried with all naivety to rehabilitate the Iranian regime, Iran would not have interfered in the internal affairs of Europe and four Arab countries (Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen) — Tarik Al-Hamid, former editor-in-chief of the Saudi-owned Asharq Al-Awsat, October 19, 2022.
Since Barack Obama admitted erring in his failure to support Iran's protestors in 2009, however, has US policy changed? Apart from painfully feeble lip-service to the protestors in Iran, Biden and his administration, through their inaction, appear still to be totally committed to their initial alliance with Russia and Iran. Biden and his administration , it appears, would rather align themselves with the mullahs in Iran and the new "Russian-Iranian Axis of Evil," than strengthen their ties with America's longstanding partners, the Arabs in the Gulf.
The winners: Russia and Iran.
To many Arab observers, it appears that President Joe Biden and his administration would rather align themselves with the mullahs in Iran and the new "Russian-Iranian Axis of Evil," than strengthen their ties with America's longstanding partners, the Arabs in the Gulf. Pictured: Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation leaders' summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan on September 15, 2022. (Photo by Alexandr Demyanchuk/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images)
Saudi Arabia was once considered America's No. 1 friend and ally in the Arab world. Since President Joe Biden came to power, however, US-Saudi relations have rapidly deteriorated.
The recent OPEC+ decision to cut oil production and the Biden administration's subsequent verbal attack on Saudi Arabia have seen the crisis between Washington and Riyadh reach new heights, with many Saudis launching unprecedented criticism of the Biden administration and its foreign policies.
The Saudis believe that the Biden administration's hostility towards Saudi Arabia is the result of the influence of far-left US politicians who have infiltrated the Democratic Party.
The Saudis, in addition, are warning that the Biden administration is acting against America's interests in the Middle East by alienating and insulting Saudi Arabia and other traditional allies of the US in the Arab world. According to Saudi author Mohammed Al-Saed:
"Biden and many Washington policy veterans have succumbed to the whims of immigrant, left-wing extremists who are leading America at home to a deep division that has reached its traditional [Arab] allies... This is the America of Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar and many others who infiltrated the bases of the Democratic Party during the past years. They are the children of immigrants who came to America carrying the grudges of their fathers and grandfathers. They never got rid of their hostility toward the Arabs."
These members of Congress, he implied, either do not know or are conveniently "forgetting" that Iran has been at least as brutal to Americans as Saudi Arabia has.
While the gruesome murder of Osama bin Laden's good friend, Jamal Khashoggi -- whose dream was to "establish an Islamic state anywhere" -- cannot be ignored, Iran's regime has created a list of hostile acts against the US at least as long.
The Iranian regime, after all, began its revolution in 1979 by storming the US embassy in Tehran, seizing 66 Americans and holding them hostage for 444 days, until the inauguration of US President Ronald Reagan. In 1983, Iran blew up the US Marines barracks in Beirut, killing 241 Americans, and wounding countless others. In 1984, the US officially declared Iran a "State Sponsor of Terrorism". In 2018, Iran was ordered by a US Federal Court to pay $7 billion for "for direct and material aid and support" for its role in the 9/11 attacks on the US.
More recently, Iran has been attacking US ships (here, here and here) and sending out hit squads to murder senior US officials and others, on American soil.
Iran also initiated a nearly decade-long war in Yemen through one of its many proxy terrorist militias, the Houthis. After US Secretary of State Antony Blinken delisted the Houthis from the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations on February 12, 2021, just days into the current administration, the Houthis returned the favor by launching drones and missiles into Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
This simplified list does not even include that Iran is presently supplying Russia with kamikaze drones and trainers as well as missiles to use against the civilians of Ukraine. Just suppose for an instant that Iran possessed nuclear weapons instead?
The list also does not include Iran's attempted attack on a major rally in Europe; Iran's blowing up a cultural center in Argentina, or especially the Iran's brutality to its own people, who once again are risking their lives to rid themselves of their crushing regime.
Iran already controls four Middle Eastern countries in addition to its own -- Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq -- as well as countless terrorist proxies, including Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Since 1979, the Iranian regime has repeated its plan of "Death to Israel" and "Death to America." And now the Biden administration still wishes it could "reward" Iran with legitimized nuclear weapons, the ballistic missiles to deliver them, and a trillion dollars? How can anyone see that as "fair"?
Yet Biden has threatened there will be "consequences" for Saudi Arabia because it declined to help the US enrich and empower its most openly bellicose enemy. How could it? Had Biden offered to drop the new Iran deal, the Saudi answer might well have been different.
Al-Saed wrote that many of these immigrants are responsible for the "misinformation and unrealistic perceptions" that are being cooked up against Saudi Arabia in the US government and Congress.
"The big question that is being asked today: Is Saudi Arabia challenging America? Certainly not... Riyadh does not abandon its allies and friends. Saudi Arabia is not in the process of challenging the US, a country that has been its partner for more than 80 years. Saudi Arabia is just defending its interests and security, which is under threat from Washington's new allies in Iran."
The Saudi commentator argued that the Biden administration and the Democrats have taken a "principled position and a decision to fall into the arms of Tehran and abandon a friendly country."
"America would not have been this great without its partnership with Riyadh. The Saudi-American relationship was not always serene, and it was often punctuated by differences in viewpoints. Despite the differences, the two nations maintained much decency and respect in front of the media and public opinion. The US, however, was the one who got involved in a poisonous political propaganda campaign against Saudi Arabia. Washington is no longer able to separate between extremist ideological feelings and the political, security and economic relationship with a partner."
Prominent Saudi political analyst Dr. Ibrahim Al-Nahhas wrote the Biden administration was damaging America's relations with its historical friends and allies while sending "positive messages" to America's fiercest enemies and haters.
"An observer of US foreign policy during the past short period notices a major shift and an escalating change in its political discourse, international dealings, intellectual orientations, and historical alliances... They [the Biden administration] are going against their greatest allies and historical friends while causing happiness to their fiercest enemies and all those who hate America."
Al-Nahhas added that the US, under the Biden administration, is going through an "abnormal" situation.
"It is actively seeking to destroy the great alliances and international relations it has built since the end of World War II. At the same time, it indirectly contributes to encouraging and bringing its enemies together. This is indeed an abnormal situation because it doesn't make sense for a country the size and stature of the US to seek to destroy its global standing and create enemies that compete with it for the leadership of the international community."
Adnan Kamel Salah, a veteran Saudi author, expressed deep disappointment with Biden and his administration for damaging US relations with Saudi Arabia. He also expressed hope that America will come to its senses.
"Personally, I was optimistic when America elected Joe Biden as president, especially given his long and wide political experience. We expected that US politics to enter a stage of balance and middle ground. But we were surprised that Biden is not the actual president as a group of left-wing extremists surrounded him under the auspices of a few billionaires who adopted [former US President] Barack Obama and made him the godfather of the American extreme Left."
The Biden administration's handling of the Russia-Ukraine war, Salah suggested, "confirms the confusion the administration is experiencing in its internal and foreign policy."
Salah denounced the "left-wing American media and members of Congress" who keep attacking Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, notwithstanding his "huge popularity" in Saudi Arabia and its neighboring countries.
"Saudi Arabia's policy is based on preserving its interests, including with America," he stressed. "But Saudi Arabia does not accept any dictates. If the left-wing American media and members of Congress are targeting Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, they must acknowledge that he is very popular in Saudi Arabia, especially among young people who are the majority of the Saudi population. The world should know that this man will be the leader of this country for the next tens of years. They have to deal with him and accept his position in the hearts of his people."
Saudi journalist Khalid Al-Owigan wrote that the Biden administration is the "biggest loser" in the crisis it has created with Saudi Arabia, and that that the Biden administration's policy toward Saudi Arabia has become a source of global sarcasm. This attitude, he added, "relied on a largely turbulent American political mood that is ignorant of the principles of the relationship with other countries."
"Personally, I would not be surprised by the Joe Biden administration's desire for a truce with Iran while dealing with America's historical friends with political ignorance, confusion, and instability. What Biden and his administration need to understand is that the Saudis do not care about losing faith in allies. Instead, they care much more in the importance of their country."Tarik Al-Hamid, former editor-in-chief of the Saudi-owned Asharq Al-Awsat pan-Arab newspaper, wrote that the Biden administration has preferred to attack Saudi Arabia than deal with the use of Iranian drones by the Russians in Ukraine.
"For weeks, the Ukrainians have been complaining and warning about the danger of the Iranian drones that the Russians are using in the war in Ukraine... However, the US administration prefers to talk about the reducing of the OPEC+ oil production and absurdly criticizes Saudi Arabia."
Al-Hamid said that the Europeans have also chosen to ignore the threats about the Iranian drones and plans to acquire nuclear weapons.
"The Biden administration and the Europeans did not move to put an end to the expanding Iranian terrorism. Instead, they talked about how to find better alternatives to communicate with the Iranians. Were it not for American and European leniency, especially since the era of Barack Obama, who tried with all naivety to rehabilitate the Iranian regime, Iran would not have interfered in the internal affairs of Europe and four Arab countries (Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen). I say the naivety of Obama's policies because he just admitted that he erred when he didn't support the Green Revolution in Iran in 2009 and instead extended a hand to Iran's terrorists."Since Barack Obama admitted erring in his failure to support Iran's protestors in 2009, however, has US policy changed? Apart from painfully feeble lip-service to the protestors in Iran, Biden and his administration, through their inaction, appear still to be totally committed to their initial alliance with Russia and Iran. The escalating crisis between the Biden administration and Saudi Arabia bodes badly for the future of relations between the US and the Arab world.
Many Arabs who are observing the US turns its back on one of its most important allies in the Arab world undoubtedly have the impression that the Americans can no longer be trusted. Biden and his administration, it appears, would rather align themselves with the mullahs in Iran and the new "Russian-Iranian Axis of Evil," than strengthen their ties with America's longstanding partners, the Arabs in the Gulf.
The winners: Russia and Iran.
*Khaled Abu Toameh is an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem.
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https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19024/biden-embraces-enemies

Where Do the Countries of the Middle East Fall Today in US Geopolitical Priorities?
Raghida Dergham/The National/October 24/2022
Decisionmakers in Washington D.C. are conveying the confidence felt among both Republican and Democratic quarters in the ability of the United States to provide exceptional leadership of the coming world order that will exclude Russia as a result of the Ukraine war and the radical military, political, and energy paradigm shift in Europe, a leadership that China will not be able to thwart. This American leadership embraces Europe, flirts with heavyweights like India and Australia, and speaks in the language of pragmatism in the Middle East in light of the many developments there and the Gulf, in their different Iranian, Saudi, and oil dimensions. Meanwhile, it is now clear that the nuclear deal with Iran is clinically dead, with no hope on the horizon to revive the JCPOA.
Despite the sharp rivalry between the Republicans and the Democrats ahead of the mid-term elections on November 3, there are signs of shared views among them on foreign policy issues, from the rivalry with China and the geopolitical landscape arising from the war in Ukraine, to relations with the Arab Gulf states and Iran.
The following are the impressions obtained from a series of meetings with senior decisionmakers in Washington:
At the level of the crisis between the United States and Saudi Arabia, following the decision of OPEC+ to cut oil production by about 2 million barrels per day, it is clear that the two sides have decided to not make any more hasty moves, taking practical and careful steps to preserve US-Saudi relations.
The frank disagreement over the interpretation of the OPEC+ decision benefited both sides, but in varying degrees. The US and Saudi leaders have placed their grand strategic relations above their political dispute over the interpretation of the decision to cut oil production, which benefits Russian President Vladimir Putin, and gives the impression that the Arab Gulf states have sided with Russia at the height of the American standoff with Putin. This impression has angered both Republicans and Democrats in Congress albeit to varying degrees and prompted the Biden administration to talk about ‘re-evaluating’ US-Saudi relations.
What the Biden administration did to contain the crisis and move two steps back is to do nothing. In other words, it did not re-evaluate the relationship. For its part, the Saudi government moved to smooth things over by condemning the Russian invasion in international forums and offering $400 million to Ukraine, for which Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky has thanked the kingdom.
The de-escalation has encouraged the two sides to start a necessary conversation about the need for a more institutionalized and transparent bilateral relationship that transcends emotional reactions and mutual doubts – Senior members in the Biden administration have talked about having been “forced” to adopt retaliatory positions prompted by the shared outrage among Republicans and Democrats in Congress over the impression that Saudi Arabia sided with Russia against the United States.
The impression and its timing are a source of concern for the Biden administration, which realizes that the already sharp electoral battle could be stoked further if this issue plays out publicly against the Democratic party. In terms of substance, the Biden administration is aware that its stances and reactions may have ‘overstepped’, especially since the administration does not oppose a behind-the-scenes role for Saudi Arabia and the UAE to influence and contain Putin’s adventures.
Practically and effectively, as the big crisis is set to come in December when the full European embargo on Russian oil and gas – which the Biden administration did not strongly support – comes into effect, there will be measures taken by the United States and Saudi Arabia in the oil markets as part of their efforts to repair relations. What the United States cares about strategically is issues like dissuading Saudi Arabia from opening its doors to a Chinese base. As for issues like oil production, these are more tactical than strategic, despite their importance.
For the Islamic Republic of Iran, the chatter in Washington suggests the obituary for the JCPOA has been all but written. There is no way Tehran can breathe new life into the nuclear agreement even if it wanted to, having missed that train by way of escalating its positions. For this the reasons are many, and include the Iranian military alliance with Russia in Ukraine and the Iranian crackdown on domestic unrest. As one US official put it, the Biden administration will not be able to revive talks with the Iranians “when fifteen-year-old girls are being shot”. In other words, the calculus has now changed, and so has the perception of Iran’s domestic, regional, and international capabilities.
The issue of the succession of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is also a vital factor in the US calculus alongside the ongoing protests in Iran. The assessment of the US administration is that while the uprising in Iran will not alone bring down the regime, the convergence of the protests, repression, and the issue of succession could open the door to change in Iran. This worries the regime in Tehran, alongside the worry arising from being dragged into the battlefield in Ukraine alongside Russia and the cost this brings. Indeed, Iran finds itself today in an alliance with a losing side in the strategic war. While China does not want to be tied in this way to the Islamic Republic, Russia has been taken out of the global strategic equation by Putin’s actions.
The regime in Iran has become more ‘revolutionary’ than it likes to pretend to be, and today has less leverage over US policy compared with the height of the Vienna talks. And it was Iran’s veto of IAEA oversight over its nuclear activities that precluded a deal with Washington. Thus, Iran’s rulers find themselves shackled and unable even to stage the kind of calculated, fine-tuned escalation they were once adept at. Today, Tehran can escalate against the Kurds in Syria and Iraq, or attack US interests in Iraq, but this is more costly.
The Democrats and Republicans have different assessments of the new Iraqi prime minister Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani, whom most Republicans and some Democrats see as a new iteration of Nouri al-Maliki, the former prime minister close to Iran. Yet officials in the administration involved in the Iraqi dossier say Sudani does not worry them, citing his ‘acceptable” language around “regional equilibrium and the need to continue to engage with the Gulf”. Still, Sudani is a source of alarm for former Republican administration officials, “especially because he is a copy of Nouri al-Maliki” as one source put it, “meaning he is commanded by Tehran”.
The assessment of the Iranian role in Syria also splits the Democrats and Republicans. However, the Biden administration, according to one official, intends to remain in Syria and Iraq, and is not worried about Russia’s move to outsource the Syria mission to Iran. In the administration’s view, Israel can stop Iran from going too far in Syria, with US support. The administration also believes President Assad will not be rehabilitated by the Arab countries and certainly not the United States, or regain his regime’s seat at the Arab League.
Concerning US efforts to secure electricity and gas supplies to Lebanon from Egypt and Jordan via Syria – requiring giving waivers to the Assad regime from Caesar Act sanctions – the administration is moving ahead with the plan and denies it amounts to rehabilitating Assad, saying “these are just pipelines” not rehabilitation.
The conclusion of the maritime border demarcation deal between Lebanon and Israel with Hezbollah’s blessing and Iran’s non-objection is an important development in the administration’s view. Some Republicans have criticized the deal, seeing it as not favoring Israeli interests enough and doubting Iran’s intentions behind allowing it. However, those directly concerned with the conclusion of the deal say that when Hezbollah escalated and issued threats to attack the Karish gas field, Israel responded with threats of violent retaliation against Hezbollah if it stages attacks, forcing the latter to take a step back. In addition, they say Iran is not ready to fight either a direct or an indirect war with Israel.
Hezbollah’s leadership has also realized that implicating Lebanon in a war with Israel, and blocking Lebanon’s attempts to benefit from its national oil and gas wealth, will bring further anger against Hezbollah amid already existing doubts of a Hezbollah role in the Beirut Port blast by allegedly storing ammonium nitrates there. This is in addition to the potential financial windfall that would relieve Hezbollah and Iran as sanctions on Tehran remain, even if the windfall were to take five years, the time needed for Lebanon to begin extracting oil and gas. What’s also important for the Biden administration is that the deal was practically made between Hezbollah and Israel, which means the border will be pacified and the logic of resistance will be invalidated.
The big picture of geopolitical developments is that Russia’s defeat in Ukraine will mean the end of Russia’s role in the Middle East, with the United States making a strong comeback to the region, where Iran without Russia will cease being a regional powerhouse. How will a weaker Iran conduct itself them? Washington is not worried too much about Iranian nuclear or regional retaliations, and has factored those in.
Strategically self-confident, Washington is adopting energy as a pivotal part of its policy. First, the energy crisis will leave Europe reliant on the United States, which benefits the US position as a global leader. Second, it will make the United States the most influential power in the world, and this will without a doubt affect the Middle East and relations between Washington and the leading states in the region.

How Europe views the Iranian national uprising
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/October 24, 2022
Since the beginning of the protests in Iran five weeks ago, it has been clear that Tehran is targeting European countries with accusations that the unrest is being manipulated by an external actor. In the absence of any US diplomatic presence in Iran since the hostage crisis of 1979-81, contacts with European officials and threats to European citizens inside the country have become a political tool for the Iranian regime and a way for it to defy the West.
Iranian hostage diplomacy started with the US just after the rise of the new revolutionary regime in 1979. Shortly after this first experience, European countries became useful pawns to manage Iran’s confrontational new relations with the US. This strategy also aimed to create a sense of solidarity among Iran’s ruling elites. Another objective was to hurt the West without taking any risk of military escalation with the US.
This low-cost Iranian strategy has exposed the paradox facing European countries. On the one hand, they are focusing on the never-ending nuclear negotiations to prepare for the US returning to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal. On the other hand, they are facing a crisis in their bilateral diplomatic relationships with Tehran. This has been true since at least the failed Iranian terrorist attack in Villepinte, Paris, in 2018 against a group of Iranian dissidents based in France. The European choice of keeping a low profile and continuing official contacts with the regime are key factors in explaining the Iranian escalation against European interests.
The Iranian regime is pursuing two main objectives through practicing hostage diplomacy. First is the promotion of the narrative that an external hand is behind the domestic uprising against the revolution and its pillars. Therefore, the regime needs to prove its case via European hostages. They are accused of fomenting domestic protests and of being part of a broader project of security and cultural “infiltrations.” These baseless claims allow the Iranian regime to seek an exchange of prisoners in order to free Iranian terrorists jailed in European countries, especially the one jailed in Belgium following the failed terrorist attack of 2018. Secondly, this strategy is forcing European capitals to keep the diplomatic lines of dialogue open with Iran to seek the release of their citizens. Indeed, the question of Iranian hostage diplomacy has become an internal issue in European countries and they have to address public concerns about European citizens being detained and jailed.
This Iranian strategy of manipulation is also a diplomatic tool to avoid European sanctions in light of the current protests. Tehran warned Brussels that if European countries imposed new sanctions against Iranian representatives accused of suppressing the protests, this would end the bilateral relationships between Iran and Europe. One also has to consider that, in the construction of this Iranian strategy, France has today — just like during the Green Movement in 2009 — become a special target.
The idea that it is possible to support both the JCPOA and political change inside Iran at the same time is flawed
The choice of France as the main European target can be best explained by three factors. Firstly, Paris is, along with Germany, a leading power in the EU and a permanent member of the UN Security Council, as well as a highly visible diplomatic actor in regard to the Iranian nuclear file. Therefore, targeting France means challenging the French position on the Iranian file, as well as sending a message to a close ally of Paris: America. Secondly, there is an ideological dimension from Tehran’s perspective. It wants to target French secularism in order to appear as the vanguard in the fight against a “decadent” West. Thirdly, Iran seeks to put pressure on French diplomats in Tehran and to limit all European diplomatic activity on Iranian soil during the current domestic protests.
The view from France is that a comprehension of Iranian affairs is not a top priority, except for helping to build a regional policy to promote a “peace agenda” in the Gulf and for Paris to appear as a diplomatic mediator. More broadly, currently, when most French media outlets talk about Iran, they focus on the arrest of a fifth French hostage shortly after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s recent speech about the West’s supposed role in the national uprising.
They also talk about the veil. The French narrative is not based on a study of the internal situation in Iran, but is rather a projection of French colonial history and concerns about the current Iranian events. In other words, this means that the topic is no longer the forced veiling of women by the Iranian theocratic state, but rather a debate about the situation of the Muslim minority in France. French media outlets have no access to Iranian territory; therefore, they rely on far-away perceptions to understand the scale of the protests and the peculiar situation of state-society relations in Iran since the 1979 revolution.
Last but not least, to overcome the “nuclear only” focus on Iran, European countries are told that they should build a comprehensive policy that integrates competing policy objectives: Avoiding nuclear proliferation but also supporting political change inside Iran and, above all, not giving legitimacy to the Iranian regime, which is seeking high-level contacts with Western leaders to manipulate public opinion inside the country.
However, the idea that it is possible to support both the JCPOA and political change inside Iran at the same time is flawed. Indeed, a new nuclear deal would provide the Iranian regime with a much-needed financial boost, allowing it to build stronger economic partnerships with Europe’s adversaries, namely China and Russia. Ultimately, reassuring the Iranian regime regarding European intentions is not an option. Tehran needs external conflicts for crisis management purposes at home. Therefore, European countries should find a way not to submit to Iranian blackmail, while pursuing a policy of empowering the social transformation process in Iran without helping the regime to survive. *Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is president of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami