English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 23/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
The Parable of the king who gave a wedding banquet for his son, but those he invited did not come...For many are called, but few are chosen.
Matthew 22/01-14: “Once more Jesus spoke to them in parables, saying: ‘The kingdom of heaven may be compared to a king who gave a wedding banquet for his son. He sent his slaves to call those who had been invited to the wedding banquet, but they would not come. Again he sent other slaves, saying, “Tell those who have been invited: Look, I have prepared my dinner, my oxen and my fat calves have been slaughtered, and everything is ready; come to the wedding banquet.” But they made light of it and went away, one to his farm, another to his business, while the rest seized his slaves, maltreated them, and killed them. The king was enraged. He sent his troops, destroyed those murderers, and burned their city. Then he said to his slaves, “The wedding is ready, but those invited were not worthy. Go therefore into the main streets, and invite everyone you find to the wedding banquet.” Those slaves went out into the streets and gathered all whom they found, both good and bad; so the wedding hall was filled with guests. ‘But when the king came in to see the guests, he noticed a man there who was not wearing a wedding robe, and he said to him, “Friend, how did you get in here without a wedding robe?” And he was speechless. Then the king said to the attendants, “Bind him hand and foot, and throw him into the outer darkness, where there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth.” For many are called, but few are chosen.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 22-23/2021
Question: "Could God create a rock so heavy He could not lift it?"/GotQuestions.org?/October 22/2021
Aoun Returns Bill Amending Electoral Law to Parliament
Geagea Says He's Under Law but Urges Military Court to be Fair
Putin Suggests 'Profits' Dispute behind Keeping Nitrates at Beirut Port
Hochstein Urges Fast Lebanon-Israel Talks, Says 'Common Reservoirs' Not an Option
‘Like slaves’: Lebanon's delivery riders struggle as economic crisis bites
Oueidat Denies Suspending Decision to Summon Geagea
US mediator urges quick talks on Lebanon-Israel maritime borders
Shea Inaugurates Pop Up Space Training Program in Sidon
Nasrallah Says Tayyouneh Probe 'Brave', Warns Israel over Oil and Gas
Lebanon’s Hezbollah warns Israel against drilling in disputed maritime border area
Israeli Defense Minister signs seizure order against Lebanese company for helping Hezbollah
Lebanon…war and Hezbollah!/Jameel Altheyabi/Saudi Gazate
US mediator says Lebanon-Israel maritime talks need to be quick
Syrians abandon Lebanon as new migrant route to Europe beckons
Nissan ex-Chair Ghosn Set on Restoring Reputation

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 22-23/20211
Putin Hosts Israeli PM Bennett
France urges Iran to curb nuclear activity, resume talks
U.S. Iran Envoy to Hold Nuclear Talks with Europe Powers
Iran nuclear talks ‘on life support’ as Tehran drags feet
Syria constitution talks stall at UN
Israel designates six Palestinian civil society groups as terrorists
Turkish counter-espionage against foreign spy networks leads to multiple
In South Sudan, flooding called ‘worst thing in my lifetime’
Rare Libya Conference Seeks Support ahead of Landmark Elections

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 22-23/2021
In His Second Term, Trudeau Must Fix His Iran Policy/Alireza Nader/FDD-Insight/October 22, 2021
Biden's Afghanistan Withdrawal Unleashes a Lethal Terrorist Cocktail/Richard Kemp/Gatestone Institute./October 22, 2021
Iraqi election results confirm Iran’s unpopularity/Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Arab News/October 22/2021
Iraqi elections signal stronger Ankara-Baghdad ties/Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/October 22/2021
Taliban powerless to stop Afghanistan’s decline/Luke Coffey/Arab News/October 22/2021

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 22-23/2021
Question: "Could God create a rock so heavy He could not lift it?"
GotQuestions.org?/October 22/2021
Answer: This question is frequently asked by skeptics of God, the Bible, Christianity, etc. If God can create a rock that He cannot lift, then God is not omnipotent. If God cannot create a rock so heavy that He cannot lift it, then God is not omnipotent. According to this argument, omnipotence is self-contradictory. Therefore, God cannot be omnipotent. So, the question, could God create a rock so heavy He could not lift it? The quick answer is “No.” But the explanation is far more important to understand than the answer...
This question is based on a popular misunderstanding about the definitions of words like “almighty” or “omnipotent.” These terms do not mean that God can do anything. Rather, they describe the amount of God’s power. Power is the ability to effect change - to make something happen. God (being unlimited) has unlimited power, and the Bible affirms this (Job 11:7-11, 37:23; 2 Corinthians 6:18; Revelation 4:8; etc.). Therefore, God can do whatever is possible to be done. God cannot, however, do that which is actually impossible. This is because true impossibility is not based on the amount of power one has, it is based on what is really possible. The truly impossible is not made possible by adding more power. Therefore, unless context indicates otherwise (e.g. Matthew 19:26 where man’s ability is being shown in contrast to God’s), impossibility means the same thing whether or not God is involved.
So, the first part of the question is based on a false idea—that God being almighty means that He can do anything. In fact, the Bible itself lists things God cannot do - like lie or deny Himself (Hebrews 6:18; 2 Timothy 2:13; Titus 1:2). The reason He cannot do these things is because of His nature and the nature of reality itself. God cannot do what is not actually possible to be done, like creating a two-sided triangle, or a married bachelor. Just because words can be strung together this way does not make the impossible possible—these things are contradictions, they are truly impossible in reality. Now, what about this rock? A rock would have to be infinitely large to defeat an infinite amount of lifting power. But an infinite rock is a contradiction since material objects cannot be infinite. Only God is infinite. There cannot be two infinites. So the question is actually asking if God can make a contradiction—which He cannot.

Aoun Returns Bill Amending Electoral Law to Parliament
Naharnet/22 October ,2021
President Michel Aoun on Friday returned a bill amending some articles of the electoral law to parliament for reevaluation, the Presidency said. The President cited “violations” contained in the bill, such as bringing forward the elections date from May to March and depriving segments of voters from their electoral rights. Aoun argued that holding the elections on March 27 might prevent some voters from casting ballots in mountainous areas due to possible storms and bad weather. He also said that bringing the date forward would shorten the timeframe for the registration of expat voters while lamenting that the bill extraordinarily suspends the implementation of the electronic card system and axes the six new seats dedicated to expats. Moreover, Aoun noted that the proposed date would deprive 10,685 citizens who turn 21 between Feb. 1 and March 30 from their right to vote. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri later in the day called on the joint parliamentary committees to meet on Tuesday to study Aoun’s returning of the bill.

Geagea Says He's Under Law but Urges Military Court to be Fair
Naharnet/22 October ,2021
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Friday commented anew on the the Military Court’s decision to summon him for testimony regarding the deadly Tayyouneh-Ain al-Remmaneh incidents. “As the head of a legitimate Lebanese party, I’m under the law,” Geagea tweeted. “But for justice to be correct, the judiciary must deal with all parties in the country as them being under the law,” he added. Geagea also lamented that “it seems that the main party in the Ain al-Remmaneh incidents considers itself to be above the law” and that “so far, the military judiciary is agreeing with it in this belief.”
The LF leader had overnight stressed that he will not appear before the Military Court if Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah is not also summoned. “The days of the Our Lady of Salvation Church are over and we will never allow a return to those days,” he emphasized.
Seven people were killed on October 14 -- mostly Hizbullah and Amal Movement members -- during a protest organized by the two groups to demand Tarek Bitar, the judge investigating Beirut's devastating port blast, be removed. Hizbullah and Amal accused the Lebanese Forces, which supports the probe, of being responsible for sniper fire against the protesters that ignited street clashes. The LF denies the charges. Fadi Akiki, a representative of the military court, has "instructed the army intelligence to summon Geagea and take his statement based on information provided by arrested LF members," a judicial official said. Twenty-six people were arrested after the violence in the Tayyouneh-Ain al-Remmaneh area, most of them LF members, the official added on Thursday. The exact circumstances of the violence remain unclear. Geagea has denied responsibility for the deaths, saying that residents of Ain al-Remmaneh had "defended" themselves against "Hizbullah militiamen who tried to enter their homes."

Putin Suggests 'Profits' Dispute behind Keeping Nitrates at Beirut Port
Naharnet/22 October ,2021
Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested that disagreements over who should make financial gains had been the reason behind keeping the huge stockpile of ammonium nitrate at Beirut port for seven years before it eventually exploded in August 2020. "Years ago they brought the ammonium (nitrate) substance to this (Beirut) port, and according to what I understood, they wanted to sell it for a profitable price," Putin said at a press conference in response to a reporter's question. He did not specify who he was referring to. "But the desire to achieve profits faced several contradictions related to who wanted to benefit from those profits," the Russian leader added. "I think this is what this tragedy was related to," he went on to say. As for Lebanon's request for satellite images from several nations, Putin said: "As for the investigations, I don't understand how we can offer help, or how the satellite images can help. Yes, we have them, and I will make inquiries. If they are of any use, of course we will provide these images.""We must first ask our colleagues if they need these images," he added. Asked about the latest incidents in Lebanon, Putin said Hizbullah is "considered to be an important political force" in the country. "We always call for resolving any crisis in Lebanon through dialogue," he said. "We are in contact with all political forces in Lebanon and we will continue this communication to prevent any bloodshed which would be in no one's interest," he added. "We will exert utmost effort to convince all political forces in Lebanon to remain rational and engage in dialogue," Putin went on to say.

Hochstein Urges Fast Lebanon-Israel Talks, Says 'Common Reservoirs' Not an Option
Naharnet/22 October ,2021
U.S. Senior Advisor for Global Energy Security and the newly appointed mediator in the U.S.-sponsored border talks between Israel and Lebanon, Amos Hochstein, has called for swift negotiations over the demarcation of the maritime border. He said that the visit he made this week to Lebanon was aimed at determining “if we can achieve some breakthrough and to move forward on the demarcation efforts.”Asked whether his visit means that the talks are “resuming,” the U.S. official told Al-Hadath TV: “I hope so.”He added: “I came here today, really, first to listen, and to listen to the three presidents and to other ministers and the Chief of Staff of the military, and to understand the position that the Lebanese government has, and its views as to what's the best way to move forward.”“As far as the question of whether or not this will be in Naqoura or in shuttle diplomacy, I think the meetings in the framework that was achieved between Israel and Lebanon with the support of the United States was an incredibly important milestone of having a framework that could facilitate talks and having indirect talks that are in person in Naqoura between the two sides, in the presence of the United States and the United Nations, was really important,” he went on to say. Asked whether the process “will take lots of time,” Hochstein said: “No. I hope not. I think that in these kinds of efforts what we've learned is that if you take a lot of time, it doesn't happen. So we need to be focused, and we need to move quickly and efficiently to address really the needs of what this negotiation entails.”
The U.S. official also noted that he did not visit Lebanon “in an effort for normalization” between Lebanon and Israel. “That's not on the table. It is just to address this one area. So to do that, you need someone that can talk to both parties, and to see if we can help the sides to narrow their gaps and ultimately reach a solution,” he pointed out. “I hope that, and trust, and everything I've heard today, is that there's a commitment and a desire to reach a resolution,” he added. Commenting on Lebanon’s electricity crisis and its relation to oil resources, Hochstein said: ”In 2016, when I was here, had we reached a resolution in 2016, today, you wouldn't have any blackouts in Lebanon. The lights would be going on and you would be paying the cheapest gas prices, because you need, paying consumers, Lebanese people, would be paying producer prices and you'd likely be exporting.”
“Remarkably, we're sitting down here and we're in an energy crisis around the world. And natural gas prices are the most expensive they have ever been in history. So instead of buying gas on, the most expensive gas, in the world, you'd be selling gas into the most expensive market,” he added. “What I want is to have Lebanon as a producer, having billion -- multibillion dollar investments from foreign companies here in Lebanon, creating jobs, creating opportunity, creating economic stability,” the U.S. official said. Responding to a question about recent media reports, Hochstein said: “I'm not looking at common reservoirs as an option. That was never my plan, nor is it now.”As for Hizbullah’s announcement that it broke a “siege” on Lebanon by bringing diesel tankers from Iran, the U.S. official said: “Do you know why Hizbullah did not break the noose, or the blockade, or any of the other scary words? We never had a blockade. There was never a noose. So they didn't break anything.” “We never attempted to stop fuel tankers from coming here. In fact, we have repeatedly -- our ambassador here in Beirut, and our senior officials -- we have always said: we want to see Lebanon succeed. We want to see fuel,” he added. He also stressed that Washington has “a sanctions regime against Syria… not against Lebanon.”“It has nothing to do with Lebanon.”

‘Like slaves’: Lebanon's delivery riders struggle as economic crisis bites
Reuters, Beirut/22 October ,2021
His motorbike's tank almost empty, Ahmad had barely enough fuel to make one more delivery and get home for the night. When the 24-year-old Syrian's phone pinged with a food order in a distant suburb of the Lebanese capital Beirut, his heart sank. Ahmad could ill afford to lose the work he picked up through local delivery app Toters - a precarious lifeline as Lebanon's economic meltdown destroys thousands of jobs and plunges three-quarters of the population into poverty.
"If I don't work, I don't eat," said Ahmad, who like other workers asked to be identified only by his first name. Freelance delivery work from app-based platforms has boomed worldwide as COVID-19 lockdowns kept people at home, prompting demands for better pay and conditions from workers around the world, from New York and Amsterdam to Johannesburg. In Lebanon, eight riders for leading delivery apps Toters and India's Zomato Ltd told the Thomson Reuters Foundation they were struggling to make ends meet with the additional strains of fuel rationing, petrol queues, power cuts, and price hikes. Although gig work is promoted as flexible, the riders said they found their jobs stressful and exploitative as they lack the protections of formal employment.
Lebanon's labour minister did not respond to an interview request and Zomato declined to comment. Toters co-founder and chief operating officer Nael Halwani defended the company's model, saying it allowed "shoppers" to decline orders as they wished.
But Ahmad said his managers at Toters refused to reassign his late-night order some 10 km (6 miles) outside the capital.
After siphoning gasoline from his friend's motorbike to make the delivery, a power cut left Ahmad stuck in the apartment building's lift for 30 minutes before he could finally head home. "Remember what it was like in the past when everyone had slaves? That's what this job is like," he said. Two Toters drivers shared a list of working conditions they had received in September that stated: "A driver cannot refuse an order for any reason." The instructions said drivers who declined orders too often or did not wear their uniform would have their accounts temporarily closed.
Halwani said drivers had the "freedom" to decline orders and go offline as they wished, but acknowledged that mid-level supervisors may have communicated such instructions to drivers.
Halwani added that Toters had raised drivers' rates above those of competitors to account for rising prices, as well as the usual factors of driver availability and order volume.
A driver who worked "more than eight hours per day for either five or six days a week" could bring home 4 million Lebanese pounds per month, he said. That would have amounted to a competitive salary of just under $3,000 in mid-2019, but the pound's dramatic devaluation means it is worth $200 at the current market rate.
Toters drivers also said they spent too much time at gas stations to accrue enough deliveries - or were forced to stay home because of an empty tank. "I'd go down to the station at 6 a.m. and finish at 12.30 p.m.," said Muhannad, a 31-year-old Toters driver. "I'd keep thinking that I could have delivered three orders in that time." As hyperinflation drives up fuel prices and other everyday costs, drivers said compensation rates were falling further and further behind. One driver said he had to move back in with his parents as he could no longer afford rent, while Hammoudi, a 24-year-old Lebanese driver for Zomato, wished he could emigrate. "My monthly wage adds up to about 3 million Lebanese pounds, but it depends on whether or not I got good tips," said Hammoudi. "I feel like there's no place for me here anymore."Under Lebanese labour law, app-based delivery drivers are considered "independent contractors", meaning they have no social security or health cover and can be laid off at any time. Lebanon is not a signatory to Convention 87 of the International Labour Organization, which enshrines the right of workers to establish or join labour organizations. It does allow collective bargaining, but Zomato and Toters drivers said that when they asked for better pay and working conditions, their managers told them they could be easily replaced.
When some Toters riders formed WhatsApp groups and Instagram pages to share grievances and float the possibility of strike action, company bosses shut their app accounts - barring them from working - until they removed the posts, two drivers said.
Economists and labour experts said the tensions were characteristic of gig economy jobs worldwide but had been exacerbated by Lebanon's cocktail of crises. "This is the new way of doing business - outsourcing the means of production to the workers," said Rabih Fakhri, a doctoral candidate at Canada's University of Montreal researching the Middle East's gig economy.""Workers in Lebanon have to cope not only with this, but with social, political and economic stressing factors in a country that is running towards a financial meltdown."

Oueidat Denies Suspending Decision to Summon Geagea
Naharnet/October 22/2021
State Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat has not suspended State Commissioner to the Military Court Judge Fadi Akiki’s decision to summon Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea in the Tayyouneh incidents case, Oueidat’s office said on Friday, denying media reports in this regard. The office, however, noted that Akiki’s decision is “being followed up by the relevant authorities to determine whether the interrogation should happen at the Intelligence Directorate or before the judge who tasked the Intelligence Directorate with hearing the LF leader’s testimony.”“No timeframe has been set” for the authorities’ deliberations, the office added.

US mediator urges quick talks on Lebanon-Israel maritime borders
The Arab Weekly/October 22/2021
CAIRO--The US mediator for indirect talks on border demarcation between Lebanon and Israel said on Thursday that the negotiations he was hoping to revive should be concluded in a short period if they were to succeed. Amos Hochstein, speaking to Al Hadath TV during a visit to Beirut, said holding the indirect talks last year between the two sides in the presence of the United States and the United Nations was an important milestone but that it remained to be seen whether the right time to resume the talks was now. “Perhaps there should be some shuttle diplomacy first, in order to assess the positions of the parties to identify where there is room for negotiation and then ultimately, to go back to Naqoura and complete the negotiations,” he said. Long time foes Lebanon and Israel started negotiations through a US mediator in October 2020 at the UN peacekeeper’s base in Lebanon’s Naqoura. The maritime border dispute has held up exploration in the potentially gas-rich area but talks have since stalled. In Thursday’s interview, Hochstein said he hoped the negotiation would not take too much time. “I think that in these kinds of efforts what we’ve learned is that if you take a lot of time, it doesn’t happen,” he said. “So we need to be focused and we need to move quickly.” Israel already pumps gas from huge offshore fields. Lebanon, which has yet to find commercial gas reserves in its own waters, is desperate for cash from foreign donors amidst a deepening economic meltdown. Hochstein said resolving the border issue would help alleviate Lebanon’s power shortage by allowing it to develop its offshore gas resources. Asked about a deal to export Egyptian gas through a pipeline going through Jordan and Syria to Lebanon, Hochstein said the United States had been working to make that happen and US sanctions against Syria would not have to be waived to make the deal go through as they likely don’t apply in this case. “We have determined that it is not, this kind of a transaction could be, likely is not, under, covered by the sanctions. And therefore we’ve informed the government here, and we’ve informed the government in Egypt that it can move ahead,” Hochstein said.

Shea Inaugurates Pop Up Space Training Program in Sidon
Naharnet/October 22, 2021
U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea on Friday attended the inauguration of the Pop-Up Spaces program in Sidon. "This one year-long program, which is implemented by Tatweer Baladna, will empower youth and young professionals in South Lebanon, North Lebanon, and the Bekaa through civic education and social entrepreneurship training and hands-on activities," the U.S. Embassy said in a statement. During the event, Ambassador Shea remarked: “Pop-Up American spaces demonstrate to our friends, the Lebanese people, that wherever you are in this time of great economic difficulty, we're not going to let that stop us from popping up and meeting you where you are.”She continued saying, “Let’s look at this as one step in the long continuum of our engagement and our partnership with you.” "To the youth who will be participating in the training programs and the activities that we will foster through this Pop-Up, I thank you for your commitment and for your engagement, and I'm excited to see what you guys are going to do with the skills that you further develop through this program,” she added.

Nasrallah Says Tayyouneh Probe 'Brave', Warns Israel over Oil and Gas
Naharnet/October 22/2021
Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Friday vowed to follow up on the investigations into the deadly Tayyouneh incidents, as he described the probe as “serious, accurate and brave.”“Things are judged by their outcomes and the political, popular and journalistic condemnation of those who killed, aggressed and almost dragged the country into strife and civil war must continue,” Nasrallah said in a televised speech marking the Prophet’s Birthday. “We renew the praise of the awareness, prudence and wisdom of the families of the aggrieved martyrs, who will carry on with this stance,” Nasrallah added. Turning to the issue of Lebanon’s stalled sea border talks with Israel, Nasrallah said he will not comment on anything related to border demarcation and that he leaves the issue to the Lebanese state. He, however, warned Israel that it would be mistaken if it thought that it can act as it pleases in the disputed area. “The resistance in Lebanon, certainly and at the appropriate moment, will act if it finds that Lebanon’s oil and gas are in danger, even if they are in the disputed area. It will act accordingly and it is capable of acting accordingly,” Nasrallah cautioned. As for Lebanon’s expected negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, Nasrallah said: “We have no problem in the principle of negotiations and we hope Lebanon will have a truly unified delegation.”Lebanon should negotiate “from a position of responsibility and interest, not from a position of receiving diktats,” the Hizbullah leader added. Commenting on the dire economic situations in Lebanon in light of the latest hike in fuel prices, Nasrallah called for launching the ration card plan as soon as possible and agreeing to “the demands of employees as to raising transportation compensations and reviving public transport.”

Lebanon’s Hezbollah warns Israel against drilling in disputed maritime border area
Reuters/October 22/2021
BEIRUT: The leader of Lebanon’s Hezbollah on Friday warned Israel against drilling for oil and gas in the disputed maritime border area between the two countries until the issue is resolved, and said the Iran-backed group would take action if it did so. “If the enemy thinks they can act as they please before reaching a solution to this issue they are wrong,” Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said in a televised speech. Lebanon’s cabinet had raised the question to the United Nations permanent representative and others in the international community after Israel granted US oilfield services group Halliburton an offshore drilling contract in the Mediterranean, asking to clarify whether the drilling would take place in disputed areas. Lebanon and Israel are in dispute over the delineation of their territorial waters and negotiations between the old foes could lead to Lebanon being able to unlock valuable gas reserves amid its worst-ever financial crisis. Israel already pumps gas from huge offshore fields. The two countries have been holding on-off US mediated talks since October to try to resolve the issue. “I will not state any positions on this as I don’t want to complicate the negotiations but for sure the resistance in Lebanon at the right time through following this issue when it finds that Lebanese oil and gas is in danger in the disputed area it will act accordingly,” Nasrallah said. The US mediator for the indirect talks, Amos Hochstein, visited Beirut this week and said a period of shuttle diplomacy would proceed any return to indirect talks between the two countries similar those held in October 2020 at the United Nations’ peackepeers base in Lebanon’s Naqoura.

Israeli Defense Minister signs seizure order against Lebanese company for helping Hezbollah
Shreif Sanitary Co. was slapped with a seizure order by Gantz after providing Hezbollah with equipment for its precision guided missile project.
Jerusalem Post/October 22/2021
Israel’s Defense Minister Benny Gantz signed a seizure order against a Lebanon-based company after it allegedly provided Hezbollah with equipment for the group’s precision-guided missile project.
The directive against the company, Shreif Sanitary Co. and its owner Haytham Ahmad Muhammad Shrief, was given “within the framework of a wide range of activities conducted against Hezbollah’s precision-guided missile project,” the ministry said in a statement.
The seizure order was signed following joint work of the IDF’s Intelligence Directorate and the National Bureau for Counter Terror Financing in the Ministry of Defense.
According to the ministry, the company is registered in Lebanon and regularly conducts commercial activities with Hezbollah as well as provides the Lebanese terror group with equipment for use in projects related to the production of precision munitions.
“The company is a preferred supplier of Hezbollah, is fully aware of the organization’s work, and supplies Hezbollah with equipment at a reduced price,” read the statement which quoted intelligence gathered by Israel’s defense establishment.
The group, which has been working on the expensive and classified project since 2013, has been attempting to build factories to produce precision missiles in South Lebanon, Beirut, and the Bekaa under the guidance of senior officers from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Hezbollah has over 130,000 rockets and missiles of all sorts of ranges and payloads and while the group has been working on this project since 2013, they have only several dozens precision missiles.
The terror group first tried to bring in ready-to-use precision missiles from Iran to Lebanon overland via Syria in 2013. But when the majority of those attempts were thwarted by alleged Israeli airstrikes, Hezbollah decided in 2016 to take “dumb” missiles from Syria and upgrade them to precision missiles.
But continued airstrikes forced the group to move their project to Lebanon, where Israel rarely acts because while members of Israel’s security cabinet have pushed for preemptive strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, the IDF is against such actions.
Nevertheless, despite significant investments of time, resources and money, Hezbollah has been unable to build operational factories to produce precision missiles for use against the Jewish State.
Gantz’s seizure order of $17,000 that was transferred from Hezbollah to the company and owner “will enable the introduction of the company into international financial ‘black lists’ and will greatly hinder its activity,” the ministry said.
The order will remain in effect until August 1rst 2023. “This order is an integral part of the campaign conducted against the Lebanese project. It is a clear and sharp message to every commercial entity that assistance provided to and business with terror organizations are unacceptable and will negatively affect their ability to operate within the international financial system,” the defense ministry said.

Lebanon…war and Hezbollah!
Jameel Altheyabi/Saudi Gazate/October 22, 2021
Is Lebanon back on the brink of a civil war again? What is the benefit for Hezbollah from blowing up the situation and burning Lebanon? Why does it seek to plunge the Lebanese into all kinds of chaos, assassinations and crises? Why does the international community continue to remain silent about its Satanic crimes and devilish practices?
It was ascertained to the world, through a historic international verdict in the assassination case of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, that the terrorist Hezbollah — the statelet that dominates the Lebanese state with weapons — is behind all the crimes, assassinations and liquidations that has taken place in Beirut.
There are plenty of most compelling proofs and evidence of the involvement of this terrorist gang, run by a regional power, in its bid to “Persianize” Lebanon along with Yemen, Iraq and Syria, are handled by the agent Hassan Nasrallah. The Beirut port explosion and the attempt to bury its crime by threatening Lebanese Judge Tarek Bitar, who is probing the blast, with insistence on his removal, were not the last among the crimes of Hezbollah. The terrorist outfit is attempting to dwarf the Najib Mikati’s government, which has not yet completed even 40 days.
Hezbollah pays lip service to resisting Israel and supporting Palestine, and it has spilled the most blood in the Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon, and has brought to Lebanon nothing but calamities, disappointments, wars and lost adventures.
There is an international and regional consensus that attributes the despair of the Lebanese situation to the militia, the terrorist arm of a regional power that does not want good for either Lebanon or the region. At the same time, the flabby and selfish and even corrupt political class — as per the description of the international community — cannot be acquitted of the crimes committed against Lebanon and turning it into a failed country without a future.
There is no doubt that the agendas of Hezbollah and its supporters and financiers will continue to push with practicing their crimes in order to keep Lebanon “sick in bed” as long as possible, and push it into an abyss and an unbearable hell, which is what the Lebanese are currently experiencing.
Imagine that “the former Switzerland of the East” has no electricity, no fuel, no medicine, no money, no safe life as corruption is rampant, and its only trade is the export of drugs in shipments of fruit.
It is certain that the Lebanese militia and those who stand behind it and those associated with it only want Lebanon to remain as it is. Therefore, Hezbollah seeks with all its might to distance Lebanon from its Arab surroundings, its true friends and supporters, and leave it in a friendless state.
This is what Nasrallah speaks out publicly, as he revealed more than once his rejection of the Lebanese regime. He has never concealed his desire to change the foundations on which Lebanon is built and turn it into one of the states of the Great Republic.
In such a context, more patriotic sacrifices are required from the sons of Lebanon in confronting the “Satanic Party” as well as to expose its practices and its allies at home and abroad, if they want to return their country to its former era that is well known for them!

US mediator says Lebanon-Israel maritime talks need to be quick
Gulf News/October 22, 2021
Cairo: The US mediator for indirect talks on border demarcation between Lebanon and Israel said on Thursday that the negotiations he was hoping to revive should be concluded in a short period if they were to succeed. Amos Hochstein, speaking to Al Hadath TV during a visit to Beirut, said holding the indirect talks last year between the two sides in the presence of the United States and the United Nations was an important milestone but that it remained to be seen whether the right time to resume the talks was now. “Perhaps there should be some shuttle diplomacy first, in order to assess the positions of the parties to identify where there is room for negotation and then ultimately, to go back to Naqoura and complete the negotaitions,” he said. Long time foes Lebanon and Israel started negotiations through a US mediator in October 2020 at the UN peacekeeper’s base in Lebanon’s Naqoura. The maritime border dispute has held up exploration in the potentially gas-rich area but talks have since stalled. In Thursday’s interview, Hochstein said he hoped the negotiation would not take too much time. “I think that in these kinds of efforts what we’ve learned is that if you take a lot of time, it doesn’t happen,” he said. “So we need to be focused, and we need to move quickly.” Israel already pumps gas from huge offshore fields. Lebanon, which has yet to find commercial gas reserves in its own waters, is desperate for cash from foreign donors amidst a deepening economic meltdown. Hochstein said resolving the border issue would help alleviate Lebanon’s power shortage by allowing it to develop its offshore gas resources. Asked about a deal to export Egyptian gas through a pipeline going through Jordan and Syria to Lebanon, Hochstein said the United States had been working to make that happen and US sanctions against Syria would not have to be waived to make the deal go through as they likely don’t apply in this case. “We have determined that it is not -- this kind of a transaction could be, likely is not, under -- covered by the sanctions. And therefore we’ve informed the government here, and we’ve informed the government in Egypt that it can move ahead,” Hochstein said.

Syrians abandon Lebanon as new migrant route to Europe beckons
Najia Houssari/Arab News/October 22, 2021
BEIRUT: Struggling to cope with soaring living costs and low wages, desperate Syrian refugees and workers are abandoning Lebanon and turning to a new migration route into Europe, via Belarus, with many risking their lives and family savings in the process.
An illegal Syrian worker who arrived in Beirut four years ago and lives with his 20-year-old sister in the capital told Arab News that “working in Lebanon no longer makes sense.”
“I work all day long delivering goods to be paid 50,000 Lebanese pounds (equivalent to $2.50 on the black market),” Ahmed said. “That is not nearly enough because of the rising costs.”
In the past two months alone, more than 16,000 undocumented migrants are believed to have entered the EU from Belarus after Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko responded to Brussels-imposed sanctions by saying he will no longer stop asylum-seekers from crossing into neighboring Poland.
Belarus has been accused of offering migrants tourist visas and helping them across its border — a move that appears to have made the previous migrant route through Turkey and on to the Greek islands a thing of the past. Arab and foreign airlines arranging trips to Belarus through Lebanon have seen demand surge since September, while Syrians have been queuing outside the General Directorate of Public Security’s offices in Beirut for hours to have their passports returned or to pay residency fees. Lebanese citizens can obtain a visa for Belarus once they arrive at Minsk airport. However, Syrians, Iraqis and Palestinians are required to get a tourist visa in advance. Ahmed told Arab News that he found a video on TikTok of Syrians talking about their trip to Belarus, then Poland and finally to Germany, and claiming that the journey is less risky than traveling by sea. “I am now getting my documents ready to leave before the end of October, because things will not get easier after that because of the conditions in winter,” he said.
Migrants undertaking the journey face hazardous conditions, with freezing overnight temperatures and the risk of getting lost in dense forests along the 500 km frontier. They must also deal with people smugglers of different nationalities who demand thousands of dollars in advance payments. Social media posts offer details about the journey and the sums migrants can expect to pay. Those who reach their final destination reassure their families that they have arrived at “the camp” — an expression refugees use to describe salvation, as they pursue a “better life.”Ali, 35, who has worked as a janitor in Beirut’s suburbs for more than 10 years, said that friends who completed the migration route called him via WhatsApp and “seemed very happy.”
However, Ali said that he would not consider making the trip. “Migrants must be young. There is no place for families on such an arduous journey.”Belarus’ announcement at the end of May that it would not stop migrants from entering Europe came in response to a series of EU sanctions imposed after Belarusian authorities forced a passenger plane to land in Minsk and seized opposition journalist Roman Protasevich who was on board. Following the incident, the EU banned Belarusian carriers from using its airspace and airports.
A Syrian worker, who declined to be named, said: “Syrians in Syria and Lebanon have heard stories about migration to Belarus, then on to Europe, since August, but they remained skeptical about this route until September.” He added: “Those who work legally in Lebanon have the right to travel from Beirut International Airport and the right to return to Lebanon as long as their residency permits are valid, but if a refugee wishes to leave Lebanon and go to Belarus, they are required to sign a document stating they will never come back.”
The website of the Belarusian Consulate in Lebanon provides instructions on obtaining an entry visa for Belarus, with a list of required documents and visa fees. Syrians, Iraqis and Palestinians need a tourist visa to enter the country, and must provide the name of the airline, a passport valid for at least six months, and an insurance policy that costs €12 ($14). A single-entry visa costs €25.
The embassy’s website has been overwhelmed with questions from Syrians seeking a “tourist visa for one week.”Three airlines, Syrian Air, Emirates and Turkish, fly to Minsk from Lebanon. According to Syrians, the flights “are fully booked by tourists.”Ahmed said: “The tourism office asked me to pay $4,000 for the visa, a one-week hotel reservation and a ticket. When I get to Belarus, I will have to wait with a group of 10 or 15 people for someone who will get us a mobile phone with Internet access and a pinned location on the Belarusian-Polish border that we are supposed to reach by foot, crossing through a forest on the frontier.”He said that the journey might take hours. “When we reach the location, a car will be waiting for us on the Polish side of the border to get us into Germany. There, we will turn ourselves in and ask for asylum. To get from Belarus to Poland, my family must transfer $3,000 to an account in Turkey, whose owners will handle the cost of the next phase, from Poland to Germany.”
Crossing from Belarus into Poland is getting increasingly difficult.
Ali was told by his friends that “the Belarusian police turn a blind eye to those walking in the jungle, but the Polish security authorities have very strict measures. If they catch people trying to cross the borders illegally, they send them back to Belarus. However, asylum-seekers do not give up. They keep trying. Those who fail to reach the location, return to their hotels and try again the next day.”He said that “those who handle the smuggling operation are from different nationalities, and might be Belarusian, Iraqi or Syrian.”
Ali also said that his relative “got lucky while crossing the jungle, as he fell and injured his leg, but there was a Syrian doctor in the group, who is also an asylum-seeker.”Poland said that its border patrols have detained hundreds of migrants since August. Groups of migrants include Afghan, Iraqi and Syrian refugees, as well those from Turkey and Jordan. According to press reports, several asylum-seekers have died of exhaustion as temperatures in the forests on the Belarusian-Polish border plummet. The Polish Press Agency reported that the body of a 19-year-old Syrian man who drowned in the Bug River on the border was found on Wednesday.

Nissan ex-Chair Ghosn Set on Restoring Reputation
Associated Press/22 October ,2021
Carlos Ghosn, the former auto industry superstar whose career screeched to a halt with his arrest three years ago, isn't about to settle into quiet retirement. The former head of the Nissan-Renault alliance fled to Lebanon in late 2019, while out on bail facing financial misconduct charges in Japan. In a recent interview with The Associated Press, Ghosn was confident, energized and determined to fight to restore his reputation. "I'm going to be there. I'm going to defend my rights as long as I have the energy to do it," Ghosn, 67, said via Zoom from his home in Beirut. His story is "far from finished," he said.
Ghosn fled from Japan while hiding in a big cargo box on a private jet. The French, Brazilian-born Ghosn took refuge in Lebanon, his ancestral homeland, which has no extradition treaty with Japan. Ghosn said he is trying to get Interpol to drop its red flag, which requests police worldwide to seek out and arrest persons wanted for prosecution or to serve a sentence. He's eager to be able to travel outside of Lebanon, but the process is likely to be bureaucratic and long. Japanese prosecutors say they are still intent on pursuing him on allegations of under-reporting his compensation and of breach of trust in misusing Nissan money for personal gain — charges he denies. Japan has extradition treaties with the U.S. and South Korea and prosecutors said they would seek help from other countries, including Brazil and France, if Ghosn travels there.
Apart from the main case in Japan, Ghosn is under investigation in France and is being sued by Nissan Motor Co. in Japan for alleged financial damages. Tokyo prosecutors have refused to send his files to Lebanon for the criminal case to be tried there.
Nissan's French alliance partner Renault sent Ghosn to Japan in 1999 to steer a turnaround when the Japanese automaker was on the verge of collapse. Under Ghosn, Nissan became more profitable than Renault. The partnership expanded to include smaller rival Mitsubishi Motors Corp. and other automakers. Nissan owns 15% of Renault, which owns a much bigger 43% of Nissan. The government of France owns 15% of Renault. Analysts estimate the damage suffered by the Nissan-Renault alliance over the Ghosn scandal at billions of dollars in capital value, sales and brand image. Nissan expects to eke out a profit this fiscal year after losing money for the last two years.
Aaron Ho, analyst at New York-based CFRA Research, believes Nissan has fallen behind in an intensely competitive industry because of the Ghosn scandal. "Before Nissan resolves its internal issues over corporate power and puts its resources back into making tangible progress — which takes a lot of time, and a lot of time has been wasted — to create values for its end demand, we are not optimistic," he said. Ghosn asserts the case against him was concocted in a power struggle within Nissan's boardroom. He said he wants to show "a conspiracy" by Nissan officials who, worried about a takeover-like merger by Renault, got Japanese authorities to pursue a criminal case against him. "The only way I can qualify them are: Thugs, inside Nissan," he said.
Nissan, which has denounced Ghosn, does not comment on the Ghosn case. Testimony at the trial of Greg Kelly, a former top executive at Nissan Motor Co. who was arrested at the same time as Ghosn, has shown that Nissan officials did seek out prosecutors.
The case against Ghosn and Kelly centers on elaborate calculations to compensate Ghosn after retirement for a pay cut he took beginning in 2009, when disclosure of big executive pay became a legal requirement in Japan. Prosecutors allege Ghosn broke the law by failing to report that compensation, which was never paid or even formally agreed upon. Kelly says he is innocent, and was trying to find legal ways to pay Ghosn to retain him. Ironically, Ghosn says the money he allegedly failed to report was based on him retiring in 2018, the year he was arrested.
Ghosn looks anything but retired. He's working on movies, teaching classes on management, consulting for businesses and helping out with university research on "character assassination."
"Look. Books, books, books," he said, when asked what else he's been working on.. "Broken Alliances," an English version of the 2020 French book "Le temps de la verite," was released in September. He is writing a book with his wife Carole, who also is wanted in Japan, about their ordeal.
Human rights advocates and other critics say Japan's system amounts to "hostage justice," allowing suspects to be questioned for days without a lawyer present while they are kept in solitary confinement in a small, spartan cell. The conviction rate of over 99% has raised questions over forced confessions. "One of the things I could do for Japan is fighting with all those people who are opposed in Japan to the hostage justice system," said Ghosn. His ride is still a Nissan, the Patrol sport-utility vehicle, a model he worked on that's popular in the Middle East. And he insists there was no way he could have foreseen the trouble that was headed his way. "If somebody was telling you before it happened that I was going to be arrested," he said, "you would laugh. You would say, 'Come on. It is a joke.'

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 22-23/2021
Putin Hosts Israeli PM Bennett
Associated Press/October 22, 2021
Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed hope on Friday that new Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett would continue in the footsteps of his predecessor in maintaining close and "trusting" relations with his country. After talks at Putin's lush Black Sea residence in Sochi, Bennett hailed bilateral ties as "strategic" and emphasized the need to maintain an "intimate" dialogue with Moscow. Greeting the Israeli prime minister at the start of their first meeting, Putin described Russian-Israeli ties as "unique," noting that Israel is home to the largest Russian-speaking community. Putin kept close personal ties with former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has repeatedly visited Russia. On Friday, Putin pointed to Russia's "business-like and trusting relationship" with Netanyahu's government and expressed hope that Bennett's government would pursue a "policy of continuity" in Russian-Israeli ties. Bennett extolled the "great contribution" made by his country's 1 million Russian speakers, and emphasized "the deep connection between the two countries" while praising Putin for bringing them closer during his 20-year rule. "I can tell you on behalf of the citizens of Israel that we consider you a true friend of the Jewish people," Bennett said. Bennett hailed the Soviet role in World War II and talked about a new museum in Israel that honors Jewish soldiers who fought in allied armies, primarily the Red Army. "It's impossible not to appreciate the heroism of the entire Russian nation during those difficult years," he said in remarks that likely resonated with Putin who cherishes his country's decisive contribution to the victory over the Nazis. Russia and Israel have developed close political, economic and cultural ties that have helped them tackle delicate and divisive issues, such as the situation in Syria where Moscow has teamed up with Tehran to shore up Syrian President Bashar Assad's rule. "We will also talk about the situation in Syria, and the efforts to halt the Iranian military nuclear program," Bennett said at the start of his talks with Putin. Putin said that Russia has been "making efforts to help restore Syria's statehood and to strengthen it." He noted that despite some problems regarding the situation in Syria, "there is also common ground and opportunities for cooperation, especially in terms of the fight against terrorism."
Bennett said on Facebook that he had an "excellent" meeting with Putin, adding that they discussed a wide range of issues, including "ways to deal with Fundamentalist Islam," in talks that stretched over five hours. "Russia is a very important player in the region," he said, noting that the relations between the two countries are "both strategic and almost daily, and we must maintain a direct and intimate line of dialogue." Israel views Iranian entrenchment on its northern frontier as a red line, and it has repeatedly struck what it says are Iran-linked facilities and weapons convoys destined for Lebanese Hizbullah. The Iran-backed militant group has fought alongside Syrian government forces in the country's civil war. Russia has waged a military campaign in Syria since 2015, helping Assad's government reclaim control over most of the country. Moscow also has helped modernize Syria's military, including providing Assad with air defense systems, and trained its personnel. Russia and Israel established a military hotline to coordinate air force operations over Syria to avoid clashes. Israel often attacks Iranian-linked targets in Syria, while Russia has provided support to the Syrian government. In 2018, Russia-Israeli ties were severely tested by the downing of a Russian warplane by Syrian forces that responded to an Israeli air raid and mistook a Russian reconnaissance plane for Israeli jets. All 15 members of the Russian crew died. Moscow also has played a delicate diplomatic game of maintaining friendly ties with both Israel and Iran. In 2018, Moscow struck a deal with Tehran to keep its fighters away from the Golan Heights to accommodate Israeli concerns about the Iranian presence in Syria. Russia is one of the international parties that negotiated a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. The deal fell apart after then-President Donald Trump withdrew in 2018. But President Joe Biden's administration is now trying to revive the deal with other international powers - a step that Israel opposes.

France urges Iran to curb nuclear activity, resume talks
AP/October 22, 2021
PARIS: France on Friday urged Iran to curb nuclear activities of “unprecedented gravity” as US and European envoys met to discuss efforts aimed at reviving the troubled 2015 Iran nuclear deal. US envoy Robert Malley joined counterparts from France, Britain and Germany at the meetings in Paris, at what the French Foreign Ministry called a “critical time” in efforts to salvage the accord. “It is urgent and crucial for Iran to end the activities of unprecedented gravity that it is conducting in violation of the (agreement) and to immediately resume full-fledged cooperation” with the International Atomic Energy Agency, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Anne-Claire Legendre said in an online briefing. The IAEA is charged with monitoring the 2015 accord, which was aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear activity in exchange for the lifting of crippling sanctions. The US pulled out of the accord under Donald Trump and re-imposed sanctions. Since then Iran has stepped up nuclear activity and is now in violation of several aspects of the deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA. Iran’s nuclear activity includes enriching uranium which Western nations fear could be used to build an atomic bomb. Tehran denies any such ambitions. The US and European partners are ready to return immediately to negotiations with Iran “in order to swiftly conclude an agreement on Iran’s return to its commitments and the United States’ return to the JCPOA,” Legendre said. Iran’s new hard-line government led by President Ebrahim Raisi, which took power in August, has hinted it will return to the nuclear talks in Vienna but has balked at setting a date.

U.S. Iran Envoy to Hold Nuclear Talks with Europe Powers
Agence France Presse/October 22, 2021
U.S. envoy for Iran Robert Malley will on Friday meet diplomats from three European powers over the Iranian nuclear crisis as Vienna-based talks to salvage a 2015 deal remain suspended. The agreement between Iran and world powers to find a long-term solution to the now two-decade-old crisis over its controversial nuclear program has been moribund since former U.S. president Donald Trump walked out of the deal in May 2018. His successor Joe Biden has said he is ready to re-enter the agreement so long as Iran meets key preconditions. But the Vienna-based talks through intermediaries made little headway, before being interrupted by the election of hardliner Ebrahim Raisi as Iran's president. Malley's trip to Paris for the meeting with the so-called E3 of Britain, France and Germany comes after he visited the Gulf for talks with allies Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates who are all deeply concerned by Iran's nuclear program. "Following consultations with partners in the region, Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley will meet with his E3 counterparts in Paris on Friday," a U.S. State Department spokesman said, without giving further details. A French diplomatic source also confirmed the meeting, adding that a representative of the EU's foreign policy section would attend. Western powers, Israel and pro-Washington Arabian peninsula states fear that Iran intends to to develop an atomic bomb. Tehran denies this, insisting it only seeks to produce energy for its population. The nuclear deal promised Iran step-by-step sanctions relief in exchange for restrictions on its atomic work which would be under the strict supervision of the U.N. atomic agency. U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi expressed concern Tuesday he was still waiting for a "high level" discussion with Iranian officials in Tehran, after negotiating last month a new compromise on monitoring Iran's nuclear program to help restart the talks in Vienna.

Iran nuclear talks ‘on life support’ as Tehran drags feet
Agencies/October 22, 2021
LONDON: Talks to rein in Iran’s nuclear arms program are on the verge of collapse, an anonymous source from a government involved in the negotiations has told The Independent. Talks that had been continuing in Vienna earlier this year ground to a halt when Iran elected its new president, Ebrahim Raisi, who is a religious and political hard-liner and a close ally of supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. Since then, Iran has failed to return in earnest to the talks and has instead ramped up production of enriched uranium and other measures that bring it closer to having a nuclear bomb.
The JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), agreed in 2015 between Iran, the US, China, Russia and other world powers, curbed Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, but the deal later broke down.
Now negotiations for a return to the JCPOA are on the verge of collapse, The Independent has reported. “The deal is not totally dead, but it’s on life support,” said an official of a government involved in the talks. The official spoke on condition of anonymity. The US has accused the Iranian side of dragging its feet in returning to the table for talks. State Department spokesman, Ned Price, told reporters “this is not an exercise that can go on indefinitely.”Israel’s finance minister, Avigdor Liberman, warned this week that “a confrontation with Iran is only a matter of time, and not a lot of time.”Raisi’s team has claimed they need time to settle into their new government and that is why there are delays, but the official involved in the talks said: “If they’re just playing for time while expanding their program, we’ll have to recalibrate our approach.” Some suspect Iran is enriching more uranium and ramping up its production capacity to gain more leverage if it chooses to rejoin the talks. Sanam Vakil, deputy director of the Iran program at London-based think-tank Chatham House, told The Independent: “They are struggling to build a strategy and build consensus. Their foot-dragging can be seen as a leverage-building exercise, but it’s also a reflection of internal paralysis.”She continued: “Their thinking is they can survive whatever is to come because they have survived everything thus far. But it’s a dangerous calculation. They’re always strategically on the razor’s edge. The outcome domestically could be dangerous in the long run. Yes, they have the monopoly of violence. Yes, the economy is bandaged, but the poverty level is increasing. Debt is increasing.” The insider source told The Independent: “If the Iranians really wanted to take their time, why continue to escalate their non-compliance? “Why not freeze their non-compliance? If they walk away, the options aren’t good. It would be a miscalculation to think everyone would just shrug their shoulders.”

Syria constitution talks stall at UN
AFP/October 22, 2021
GENEVA: Talks on a new constitution for Syria this week ended in disappointment, the United Nations mediator concluded Friday, and without a proper understanding on how to move the process forward. The sixth round of discussions between 15 representatives each from President Bashar Assad’s government, the opposition, and from civil society, were held this week at the UN in Geneva. The government and the opposition traded barbs afterwards, pointing the finger at each other for the lack of progress. “It was ups and downs,” UN envoy Geir Pedersen told a news conference following the Syrian Constitutional Committee (SCC) talks. “We had three days that went rather well and one day that was more difficult.”This week, each delegation brought forward draft texts on different areas of the constitution: on Monday, the government on sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity; on Tuesday, the opposition on the armed forces and security; then civil society on the rule of law; and on Friday, the government on terrorism.

Israel designates six Palestinian civil society groups as terrorists
AP/October 22, 2021
TEL AVIV: Israel on Friday designated six Palestinian civil society groups as terrorist organizations and accused them of funnelling donor aid to militants.
The charge was rejected by human rights watchdogs who said the move will stifle monitoring of potential abuses. The designations authorize Israeli authorities to close the groups’ offices, seize their assets and arrest their staff in the occupied West Bank, watchdogs Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International said in a joint statement condemning the move.Israel’s defense ministry said the six Palestinian groups had ties to the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PLFP), a left-wing faction with an armed wing that has carried out deadly attacks against Israelis.
“(The) declared organizations received large sums of money from European countries and international organizations, using a variety of forgery and deceit,” the defense ministry said in a statement, alleging the money had supported PFLP’s activities.
The groups include leading Palestinian human rights organizations Al-Haq and Addameer, who document alleged rights violations by both Israel and the Western-backed Palestinian Authority, which has limited self-rule in the West Bank. Asked for comment, an official with PFLP, which is on the European Union’s terrorism blacklist, did not outright reject ties to the six groups but said they maintain relations with civil society organizations across the West Bank and Gaza. “It is part of the rough battle Israel is launching against the Palestinian people and against civil society groups, in order to exhaust them,” PFLP official Kayed Al-Ghoul said.
Al-Haq did not immediately provide comment. Addameer and another one of the designated groups, Defense for Children International — Palestine, rejected the Israeli accusations as an “attempt to eliminate Palestinian civil society.” The other three groups listed did not immediately provide comment. Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International said the “decision is an alarming escalation that threatens to shut down the work of Palestine’s most prominent civil society organizations.”They added: “The decades-long failure of the international community to challenge grave Israeli human rights abuses and impose meaningful consequences for them has emboldened Israeli authorities to act in this brazen manner.”Israel captured the West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem in the 1967 Middle East war. Palestinians seek the territories for a future state. Pedersen wanted to wrap up Friday by striking a form of provisional agreement on the principles that had been discussed, either in part or in full — or if not, then agreeing on what the parties disagreed on. “The discussion today was a big disappointment. We did not manage to achieve what we had hoped to achieve: that we would have a good discussion on how to reach forward for some kind of a consensus,” the Norwegian diplomat said.“We lacked a proper understanding on how to move that process forward.”Negotiations have not been held since January, when the fifth round of talks hit a brick wall. No date was agreed for the next round of discussions.
The SCC was created in September 2019 and first convened a month later.
The tentative negotiations are aimed at rewriting the war-torn country’s constitution. It is hoped the talks could pave the way toward a broader political process. Ahmad Kuzbari, the head of the government SCC delegation, said some opposition proposals were “far from reality and even reflected malign thought and aggressive agendas,” he told reporters afterwards. He accused the opposition of “ceaseless attempts to lay obstacles and to make this round fail and lead it not to achieve any outcome.”“Despite all that took place, our delegation reaffirms its will to carry on, to engage positively in the process,” he concluded.
Syrian opposition negotiations leader Hadi Al-Bahra said Kuzbari’s claims were “bare of any truth” and said the regime did not have the will to reach a solution. “There were not even attempts to achieve a consensus,” he said. Bahra said the opposition and the government’s position on Syrian independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity were interchangeable, “but still they are insisting that there is no consensus.”But he said the talks in Geneva were the only international platform on which the Syrian opposition had a voice, so it was one “we must preserve.”
Pedersen said the participants “agreed that it could not continue like this,” but revealed that “a little bit of trust” had been established this week and he could “see that there are possibilities.”Syria’s civil war erupted in 2011 after the violent repression of protests demanding regime change. It quickly spiralled into a complex conflict that pulled in numerous actors, including jihadist groups and foreign powers. The war has left around half a million people dead. Throughout the civil war, the UN has been striving to nurture a political resolution.

Turkish counter-espionage against foreign spy networks leads to multiple
Agencies/October 22, 2021
ANKARA: Turkey has arrested a number of individuals believed to be involved in espionage activities on behalf of other nations, it has been revealed. A wide-ranging operation by Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization recently detained at least 15 people linked with Israeli intelligence agency Mossad, for allegedly carrying out activities on Turkish soil against Israeli dissidents and Palestinian students. As part of an investigation by the Istanbul public prosecutor’s office, according to pro-government newspaper Sabah, interrogation of the detainees is underway after they were taken to a prison in Istanbul.
Conviction for espionage in Turkey carries a prison term of 15 to 20 years. Around 200 people took part in the operation to apprehend the 15 detainees, surveilling them for over a year in secret, in what appears to have been one of the largest intelligence operations in Turkish history.
The 15 were discovered after Turkish counterterrorism forces held separate operations in four provinces; the spy network is thought to have had five separate cells of three people each spread across Turkey. Members were allegedly in close contact with Mossad field officers, relaying information and documents through face-to-face meetings abroad, in Croatia, Romania, Kenya, and Switzerland. The cells, supposedly paid tens of thousands of dollars and euros for their work, conducted research into various associations and companies in Turkey, as well as Palestinian students enrolled in Turkish universities on courses that could have practical use in relation to defense or terrorist activities, and sent this information back to Mossad. Turkish intelligence believes several Palestinians reported missing since last month were part of the ring. A number of Syrians are also thought to have been involved. Neither the Israeli or Turkish governments have commented on the reports. Although ties between the two countries have been fragile over the years, with Turkish links to Hamas a particular sticking point, both countries’ presidents agreed on the need to improve bilateral ties after a phone call in July. “Until some details of that operation were disclosed, Turkey was blamed for the … Palestinian people who went missing in the country. There were even some reports claiming that Turkey was handing over some Hamas members to improve ties with Israel. But, if these latest allegations prove true, it seems that some Palestinian people in Turkey were secretly working for the Mossad in its own operations,” one expert, who requested anonymity, told Arab News. The Mossad ring was not the only espionage-related incident to occupy Turkish headlines in recent weeks. On Thursday, six suspects, including Russians, Ukrainians and Uzbeks, were jailed pending trial over an alleged plot against Chechen dissidents in Turkey, held on charges of espionage and preparing armed actions targeting opposition figures in the country. After being initially detained in the southern resort province of Antalya, they were transferred to Maltepe prison in Istanbul, a city home to several thousand Chechens. Turkey also recently detained eight people, including two Iranian spies and six locals, over a plot to kidnap a former Iranian military official in the eastern province of Van, some 100 km from the border with Iran.
The operation to apprehend the eight came after Turkey briefly detained a member of the Iranian Consulate in Istanbul in February, in connection with a probe into the assassination of an Iranian dissident in Turkey two years ago.

In South Sudan, flooding called ‘worst thing in my lifetime’
AP/October 22, 2021
MALUALKON, South Sudan: He feels like a man who has drowned.
The worst flooding that parts of South Sudan have seen in 60 years now surrounds his home of mud and grass. His field of sorghum, which fed his family, is under water. Surrounding mud dykes have collapsed. Other people have fled. Only Yel Aguer Deng’s family and a few neighbors remain. This is the third straight year of extreme flooding in South Sudan, further imperiling livelihoods of many of the 11 million people in the world’s youngest country. A five-year civil war, hunger and corruption have all challenged the nation. Now climate change, which the United Nations has blamed on the flooding, is impossible to ignore. As he empties a fishing net, Daniel Deng, a 50-year-old father of seven, recalls a life of being forced to flee again and again because of insecurity. “But this one event (the flood) is too much,” he said. “It is the worst thing that happened in my lifetime.”
The UN says the flooding has affected almost a half-million people across South Sudan since May. Here in Northern Bahr el Ghazal state, the Lol river has burst its banks. This state is usually spared from extreme flooding that plagues the South Sudan states of Jonglei and Unity that border the White Nile and the Sudd marshlands. But now, houses and crops have been swamped. A new report this week coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization warned of increasing such climate shocks to come across much of Africa, the continent that contributes the least to global warming but will suffer from it most. In these rural South Sudan communities, shelters of braided grass put up a fragile resistance in a land of seemingly endless water. In Langic village, Ajou Bol Yel’s family of seven hosted nine neighbors who had lost their homes. The elders sleep outside on beds protected by mosquito nets, while the children share the floor. In Majak Awar, some 100 families have been displaced twice, in June when homes were flooded and again in August when their shelters were ruined, too. “I want to leave for Sudan,” whispered Nyibol Arop, a 27-year-old mother of five, as she boiled her morning tea just steps away from the stagnant water that threatens her current shelter. It is hard to see a stable future when constantly on the move, a lesson learned during the civil war that displaced millions of people before a peace agreement in 2018. “Floods are not constant. Some people will stay, and some will go,” said Thomas Mapol, a 45-year-old father of nine, as he showed off the destroyed houses of his village near Majak Awar. “But me, I cannot move anywhere. There is no other place that I know.”

Rare Libya Conference Seeks Support ahead of Landmark Elections
Agence France Presse/October 22, 2021
Libya's fragile unity government hosted an international conference Thursday to build support ahead of the war-battered country's landmark December election. "Your presence is proof that we are on the road to peace," said the head of the interim government, Abdulhamid Dbeibah, promising that the vote would be held "on time" and urging "respect for the results." Libya and the U.N. have been striving to move past the violence that has wracked the North African nation since a 2011 NATO-backed uprising toppled and killed dictator Moammar Gadhafi. A ceasefire between eastern and western factions last year led to the unity government taking office in March with a mandate to take the country to elections. "Tripoli has recovered. It is the capital of all Libyans," Dbeibah said at the Libya Stabilization Conference, the first of its kind to be held in the country for years, with representatives from about 30 nations attending. The presidential vote is set to take place on December 24, but legislative polls may be delayed, amid wrangling between factions in the country's east and west. Libyan Foreign Minister Najla al-Mangoush, in a final statement, said Tripoli pledged to respect United Nations resolutions to "create a conducive environment" for the holding of "transparent and inclusive" elections. Foreign powers have backed various sides in Libya's complex war, and the presence of mercenaries and foreign troops in the oil-rich nation is one of the toughest obstacles to a lasting peace.Foreign fighters were a major focus of the conference. Mangoush repeated Tripoli's "rejection of foreign interference" and the "attempts to sow chaos in Libya".
'More precarious'
The UN Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs, Rosemary DiCarlo, insisted on the importance of the December elections to "complete the transitional phase".he called on international organizations to send "special envoys to observe this operation" and to guarantee its transparency. As Libya faces multiple accusations of mistreatment of illegal migrants, DiCarlo urged authorities to speed up the repatriation of refugees stranded there and to release migrants in detention. Foreign powers have been pushing hard for elections to be held as scheduled, after the date was agreed at UN-led talks last year.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said that the holding of both presidential and legislative elections on December 24 was "within reach". He praised "remarkable progress" made in both politics and security. "The aspirations of Libyans for sovereignty converge with the security interests of the entire region, from the Sahel to Europe to North Africa," Le Drian said. "With our support, Libyans can seize the historic opportunity that exists today to regain peace," he added. Although there are sharp disagreements over the vote, Libya expert Emadeddin Badi said the conference aims to "capitalize on the momentum to see Libya stabilized, because several countries do actually want to see a stable Libya, even if on their own terms".
- Foreign fighters -
Mangoush labelled foreign fighters "a threat not just to Libya but to the entire region". Last December, the UN estimated that 20,000 combatants from abroad were present in the country. They include Russians sent by the shadowy Kremlin-linked Wagner group, African and Syrian mercenaries and Turkish soldiers deployed under a deal with a previous unity government at the height of the last round of east-west fighting. The minimal progress since a January deadline for their departure under a ceasefire deal reflects the complexity of the issue. Earlier this month, a joint commission of eastern and western military commanders agreed on a roadmap for their departure -- but it lacked a timeline. Tripoli has said a "very modest" number of fighters have left. Also on the list of Libya's woes is the question of integrating and unifying the country's armed forces under a single command -- forces that as recently as last year were firing at each other. While in theory the country has a unity government, its east is largely controlled by military strongman Khalifa Haftar, widely expected to stand as a presidential candidate but despised by many in Libya's west.

The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 22-23/2021
In His Second Term, Trudeau Must Fix His Iran Policy
Alireza Nader/FDD-Insight/October 22, 2021
Last month’s re-election of Justin Trudeau as Canada’s prime minister provides an opportunity to reflect on Ottawa’s relationship with the Islamic Republic in Iran. Iran policy is an issue of great importance to hundreds of thousands of Canadian-Iranians and their allies. So far, however, Trudeau’s Iran policy has been weak to nonexistent.
He does pay occasional lip service to supporting Iranian human rights and achieving justice for the 55 Canadian-Iranians killed when the regime shot down Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752 last year. But this is all talk.
When push comes to shove, Trudeau and his government choose either to accommodate Tehran or simply say nothing. Tellingly, Trudeau failed even to mention Iran or PS752 during the recent Canadian election. And Trudeau’s foreign minister, Marc Garneau, ignored PS752 during his recent speech before the UN General Assembly.
This silence reflects Trudeau’s wish to avoid antagonizing Iran. Canada’s current Iran policy centers on supporting the Biden administration’s efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and on keeping the door open to a more positive diplomatic relationship with the regime. Ottawa fears that applying pressure against Tehran could undermine these goals.
However, President Joe Biden’s failed attempts to persuade Tehran to resume compliance with the JCPOA should demonstrate to Ottawa that achieving an acceptable nuclear deal with Iran will require leverage through sustained pressure. Indeed, the JCPOA’s prospects grow dimmer every day as the regime refuses to fulfill its nuclear obligations or even to return to the negotiating table. New Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s ultra-hardline government and new nuclear negotiating team will likely continue to pursue nuclear and foreign policies that put Iran at odds with the international community, including the United States and Canada.
Likewise, the door to a positive relationship with Tehran closed a long time ago. The Islamic Republic is unlikely ever to reform or pursue policies in line with Canada’s democratic principles, especially since Iran now has a mass murderer as president.
Meanwhile, the regime’s conduct, from shooting down Flight PS752 to supporting terrorist groups across the Middle East and even on Canadian soil, poses a direct threat to Canada’s national security. Ottawa needs to start fighting back.
In his second term, Trudeau should adopt a policy aimed at thwarting the regime’s malign activities, protecting Canadian national security interests, and advancing the interests of the Iranian people.
As a first step, Ottawa should join the United States in designating Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization pursuant to the Canadian Parliament’s recommendation in 2018. The IRGC is Iran’s most powerful military and security actor, responsible for supporting and directing Tehran’s various terrorist proxies.
In fact, IRGC personnel were responsible for downing Flight PS752 in 2020. The regime has refused to provide a full accounting of the PS752 shootdown, and according to former Iranian Foreign Minister Muhammad Javad Zarif, the IRGC is responsible for hiding the truth. So far, Ottawa has not taken any action against the IRGC, depriving Canada of leverage necessary to convince the regime to provide clear answers. Canada should couple sanctions against the IRGC with a concerted push for international bodies such as the International Civil Aviation Organization to hold the regime accountable for shooting down Flight PS752.
In addition, Ottawa should crack down on Iran’s malign presence in Canada. This should include efforts to counter the regime’s foreign influence network, money-laundering, and other illicit activities in Canada.
Ottawa should also re-examine its policy of tolerating regime officials on Canadian soil. For example, former Iranian Vice President Razm Hosseini has admitted to living in Canada in the past, and his family continues to reside in Canada while he works in Iran. As a former governor of Kerman, a city in southeastern Iran, Hosseini received political support from the late IRGC Qods Force leader Qassem Soleimani. Another example is Mahmoud Reza Khavari, the former director of Iran’s Bank Melli, who fled to Canada after the regime accused him of stealing billions of dollars.
Finally, Ottawa should demonstrate its solidarity with the Iranian people by imposing sanctions targeting human rights abusers in Iran. While Trudeau and his government have verbally condemned Iranian human rights violations, they have done little to back up their words with action. While Canada has followed and enforced UN and international sanctions on Iran, it has not imposed Global Magnitsky sanctions on individual Iranian human right abusers.
Ottawa’s soft line on Iran has clearly proven itself incapable of defending Canada’s values and interests. It is long past time for Trudeau to get tough on the clerical regime.
*Alireza Nader is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he contributes to FDD’s Iran Program and Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP). For more analysis from Alireza, the Iran Program, and CEFP, please subscribe HERE. Follow Alireza on Twitter @AlirezaNader. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_Iran and @FDD_CEFP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Biden's Afghanistan Withdrawal Unleashes a Lethal Terrorist Cocktail
Richard Kemp/Gatestone Institute./October 22, 2021
Despite their promises to deny terrorists safe haven, the Taliban will do the opposite. They and Al Qaida are joined at the hip, with both Osama Bin Laden and his successor Ayman Al Zawahiri having sworn unbreakable allegiance, bay'ah, to the leaders of the Taliban.
The Islamic State's Khorosan branch, with several thousand fighters in Afghanistan, will pose a similar threat. Many political leaders in the US and UK claim the Taliban are sworn enemies of the IS, with some even suggesting that we might form an alliance against IS with Taliban terrorists. But this abhorrent proposition is merely an attempt to help limit the political fall-out from their ill-judged actions that facilitated the Taliban's conquest.
Today, all these actors know there is no prospect of further large-scale US intervention in the country, no matter how great their atrocities. The US remains capable of air strikes and even special forces raids against serious threats emanating from Afghanistan, but these require high-grade intelligence which, despite the powerful technical capabilities of the agencies, is extremely difficult to gain now that we have withdrawn all forces.
The prospect of a successful jihadist insurgency in Pakistan, with its nuclear arsenal, has been a long-standing concern for the US, which invested huge intelligence and military resources to help prevent it. Most of this capability was withdrawn with the exit from Afghanistan.
Like Pakistan, China supported the Taliban insurgency for many years. In return, the Taliban have frequently hunted down and killed many of the Uighur leaders — fellow Sunni Muslims — who took refuge in Afghanistan. Desperate for Beijing's funds and political backing, the Taliban can be relied on to do all they can to prevent any export of jihadism into China.
But we can expect no such efforts from Beijing to prevent terrorist actions against the West. On the contrary, as the new cold war intensifies, China is more than capable of using its increasing cooperation with the Taliban to enlist jihadists from Afghanistan as proxies against the US.
Despite their promises to deny terrorists safe haven, the Taliban will do the opposite. They and Al Qaida are joined at the hip, with both Osama Bin Laden and his successor Ayman Al Zawahiri having sworn unbreakable allegiance, bay'ah, to the leaders of the Taliban. Pictured: Bin Laden (center) and Al Zawahiri (left) address a press conference May 26, 1998 in Afghanistan.
Twenty five year-old Ali Harbi Ali has been arrested on suspicion of the murder last week of British Member of Parliament Sir David Amess in a church in Essex. Ali is a member of a well-to-do Somali family who were given refuge in Britain from the war-torn East African country in the 1990s. British authorities had previously been alerted to his radicalisation and he was referred to the UK's "Prevent" anti-terrorist scheme.
The precise reason for his alleged attack on this particular MP, which he has reportedly admitted, has not yet been established but it is thought he may have been influenced by Al Shabaab, an Al Qaida group that operates in Somalia and Kenya.
Last month, the head of Britain's security service MI5, Ken McCallum, warned there was no doubt the Taliban victory in Afghanistan this summer has "heartened and emboldened" jihadists everywhere.
It may be that the murder in Essex was the first successful terrorist attack in Britain inspired by the consequences of US President Joe Biden's catastrophic decision to withdraw US forces from Afghanistan. Amess's savage knifing follows jihadist attacks in Norway that killed five and wounded three last week and another in New Zealand in September that wounded five.
Jihadists around the world celebrated the vanquishment of the West following the Taliban seizure of power in Kabul. Not only has this re-energised terrorist cells but it will also lead to an increase in recruiting and a funding boost from jihadist supporters. Prior to Biden's withdrawal, Al Qaida had been at a low point in their fortunes, following decimation by US drone strikes in the Pakistan tribal areas, catastrophic setbacks in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, the killing of Osama Bin Laden and the rise of the Islamic State. Their international prestige among fellow jihadists has now been boosted as they share in the glory of the Taliban's success — in which they played a part.
Al Qaida, the Islamic State and other jihadist networks will capitalise on the climacterical success of their global movement, directing and inspiring attacks around the world, emulating IS at the height of its powers in Syria and Iraq, radicalising thousands and inspiring knife, vehicle-ramming, explosive and gun attacks in many countries.
A deeply grim prospect — but this widespread inspiration of terrorism will not be the most serious terrorist consequence of the withdrawal. We will see jihadists flowing into Afghanistan to join up with terrorists there, as they did in the years before 9/11. They will train, organize, establish global connections, plan attacks and receive direction and funding from the leadership. Despite their promises to deny terrorists safe haven, the Taliban will do the opposite. They and Al Qaida are joined at the hip, with both Bin Laden and his successor Ayman Al Zawahiri having sworn unbreakable allegiance, bay'ah, to the leaders of the Taliban. The Islamic State's Khorosan branch, with several thousand fighters in Afghanistan, will pose a similar threat. Many political leaders in the US and UK claim the Taliban are sworn enemies of the IS, with some even suggesting that we might form an alliance against IS with Taliban terrorists. But this abhorrent proposition is merely an attempt to help limit the political fall-out from their ill-judged actions that facilitated the Taliban's conquest. The reality is that the Taliban and IS will sometimes kill each other and sometimes cooperate, a phenomenon beyond the comprehension of many commentators and politicians in the West, but a familiar pattern in the region. Ultimately, infidels and apostates are a common enemy whose destruction can unite adversaries in the face of almost any other ideological or practical clash.
The Taliban also are now more outward-facing in their jihadist ambitions. Before 2001 they were focused predominantly on Afghanistan. Today, after 20 years fighting Western forces and with many younger members who have greater international awareness, their eyes are also on the violent role they can play in establishing a global Islamic caliphate.
The resultant cocktail is even more lethal than before 9/11.
Today, all these actors know there is no prospect of further large-scale US intervention in the country, no matter how great their atrocities. The US remains capable of air strikes and even special forces raids against serious threats emanating from Afghanistan, but these require high-grade intelligence which, despite the powerful technical capabilities of the agencies, is extremely difficult to gain now that we have withdrawn all forces
The threat from Afghanistan is not to the West alone. There is also a grave risk to Russia and Central Asian countries and to the "apostate" Muslim countries especially in the Arab world. Pakistan and China, today the dominant external powers in Afghanistan, also fear terrorism emanating from the country. Pakistan has good reason to be worried, even though their intelligence services and army were the most effective backers of the Taliban — without whose support they could never have seized power in Kabul.
Following a crackdown on the Pakistan Taliban (TTP), which have long conducted a ruthless campaign against the Pakistan government, they took refuge in Afghanistan. As with jihadists around the world, the TTP will have been inspired by their jihadist bedfellows' success. It is also likely that the Taliban and a resurgent Al Qaida, which shares their ambition to bring down the government in Islamabad and has close links to them, will aid the campaign to do so. The prospect of a successful jihadist insurgency in Pakistan, with its nuclear arsenal, has been a long-standing concern for the US, which invested huge intelligence and military resources to help prevent it. Most of this capability was withdrawn with the exit from Afghanistan.
The Communist Chinese need have less concern about insurgency spilling across the border into neighbouring Xinjiang autonomous region. Like Pakistan, China supported the Taliban insurgency for many years. In return, the Taliban have frequently hunted down and killed many of the Uighur leaders — fellow Sunni Muslims — who took refuge in Afghanistan. Desperate for Beijing's funds and political backing, the Taliban can be relied on to do all they can to prevent any export of jihadism into China.
China will also seek to enlist the Taliban's support in curbing any further TTP attacks, as have previously occurred, against their people and projects in Pakistan, with whose government they are closely aligned. But we can expect no such efforts from Beijing to prevent terrorist actions against the West. On the contrary, as the new cold war intensifies, China is more than capable of using its increasing cooperation with the Taliban to enlist jihadists from Afghanistan as proxies against the US.
President Biden's withdrawal has not only brought darkness and mayhem to the people of Afghanistan and fatally undermined the strategic credibility of the West, it has also unleashed what may turn out to be the most dangerous terrorist threat the world has yet faced.
*Colonel Richard Kemp is a former British Army Commander. He was also head of the international terrorism team in the U.K. Cabinet Office and is now a writer and speaker on international and military affairs.
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Iraqi election results confirm Iran’s unpopularity
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Arab News/October 22/2021
Iraqi voters this month made it clear they have had enough of Iran’s violent interference in the country’s politics. Under the direction of Tehran’s Quds Force — the external operations arm of its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps — Iraqi Shiite militias have assassinated dozens of activists, suppressed free speech and boasted about their allegiance to the Iranian regime. However, in the Oct. 10 elections, voters punished the militias’ candidates, who saw their bloc shrink from 48 to just 14 of the 329 seats in the Iraqi parliament. This outcome made clear that it was no anomaly when, over the past two years, Iraqis set fire to Iranian consulates and tore down posters of Iranian leaders. Rather, such events reflected the deepening anger against Tehran.
Other aspects of the election results confirmed that Iran’s popularity among Iraqis is tanking. The bloc of Shiite cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr won 73 seats, likely making it the biggest bloc in parliament. Al-Sadr campaigned on the slogan, “No East and no West,” which was first used by the founder of the Iranian regime, Ayatollah Khomeini, who imagined Tehran’s foreign policy as being equidistant from the US-led Western camp and its Russian-led rival. In effect, Al-Sadr called for an Iraqi foreign policy aligned with neither America nor Iran.
His intentions are harder to discern. In 2005, Al-Sadr formed a militia that warred with US troops and enjoyed extensive Iranian support. But in 2008, the firebrand cleric disbanded his militia, although elements within it became the nucleus of the current crop of Iranian-backed Shiite forces. Meanwhile, Al-Sadr himself became an ardent supporter of disbanding all militias.
At least compared to the results of the previous elections in 2018, Al-Sadr’s victory is good news for America. The bad news is that he is a mercurial populist who has often expressed antagonism toward the US and its role in Iraq.
However, Al-Sadr understands that, even with his impressive bloc of 73 seats, his candidates will need allies to attain the 165-seat majority required to form a government. He could potentially form an anti-Iran bloc by teaming up with the Sunnis and Kurds that are aligned with Washington and its allies.
The good news in that regard is that anti-Tehran Sunnis and Kurds also won big at the polls. The only consolation for Iran’s allies was the strong performance of former Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki, whose coalition picked up 37 seats. While Al-Maliki supports militias, his opportunism has kept him at arm’s length from Tehran, which does not consider him to be a reliable ally.
Sunnis are divided into two rival camps: Taqaddom, which is headed by incumbent Speaker Mohammed Al-Halbousi, and Azm, which is led by Khamis Al-Khanjar. Taqaddom won 43 seats, while Azm collected 15.
Among the Kurds, the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Masoud Barzani, which is aligned with the US, won 32 seats, beating its rival, the pro-Iran Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, whose bloc shrank to 15 seats.
With Taqaddom and the KDP, Al-Sadr could form a bloc of 148 seats, elect a speaker, then a president, and win the call to form a Cabinet. Pro-Tehran lawmakers will likely try to lure the KDP away from Al-Sadr, mainly by promising it the presidency, which is currently held by Iraq’s other Kurdish party. While the presidency is ceremonial, it carries weight for its representation of one of Iraq’s three big ethno-sectarian blocs.
Al-Sadr could potentially form an anti-Iran bloc by teaming up with the Sunnis and Kurds that are aligned with Washington and its allies.
Since the fall of Saddam Hussein, Tehran and its proxies in Iraq have pursued one goal: The creation of a weak state controlled by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Quds Force and IRGC-backed militias.
Thanks to both Iranian meddling and the fragmentation of candidates into so many small blocs, Cabinet formation in Iraq might prove to be a lengthy and arduous process. This may give incumbent Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi an advantage. Unlike his predecessors, Al-Kadhimi did not form a party of his own to contest the elections. For staying neutral, he might once again emerge as the center of a consensus that could end the stalemate between the blocs and form a new Cabinet.
If Al-Kadhimi does stay in power, he might again urge Washington to withdraw its remaining 2,500 military advisers, presumably to take away the excuse that pro-Iran militias use to justify their continued armament and de facto independence from authorized chains of command.
This time, however, Washington can bring to Al-Kadhimi’s attention that only a small fraction of Iraqis buy into such excuses. Given the clear popular mandate in favor of disbanding the militias, America should not cut and run, but should strictly condition any downscaling of its adviser corps on Baghdad becoming able to stand on its own in the face of both religious extremist terrorists, such as Daesh, and state-sponsored terrorists like the pro-Iran militias.
*Hussain Abdul-Hussain is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy. Twitter: @hahussain

Iraqi elections signal stronger Ankara-Baghdad ties
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/October 22/2021
Iraqis went to the polls on Oct. 10 to elect the 329 members of a new parliament, in what is considered one of the most crucial elections since the US-led invasion that ousted Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003. Iraq historically has been the focal point of Turkey’s regional politics due to its proximity and a failure to ensure security on Turkey’s doorstep.
The outcome of the elections and the new structure of the parliament is of great importance to Ankara, which seeks to maintain close relations with different factions in Iraqi politics in order to preserve its national and strategic interests. Thus, all eyes are on the new coalition government, which is likely to influence the future course of bilateral relations between Ankara and Baghdad. Ahead of the elections, Ankara tried to bring together the two Sunni Iraqi officials, Mohammed Al-Halbousi, who leads the Taqaddom camp, and Khamis Al-Khanjar, who leads the Azm coalition. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met separately with the two politicians in Ankara in an attempt to unite them ahead of the elections, a move that failed to bear fruit.
However, the outcome of the elections, in which about 43 percent of eligible voters cast their ballots, seems to be positive for Ankara, but not for Iran, another actor that competes for influence in Iraq. The Sunnis emerged as the second largest force in parliament and Turkmens entered as a united force. Kurdish parties made considerable gains. The parties of Iraq’s northern Kurdistan Regional Government region, which are also crucial power brokers, enjoy close relations with Ankara.
On the other side, the Conquest Alliance, linked to Iran-backed Shiite militia, suffered a major setback. Considering the visits of Parliamentary Speaker Mohammed Al-Halbousi and Kurdish officials to Ankara ahead of the elections, Iraqi observers expect that the new government will enjoy warm relations with Ankara, which considers cooperation with the new Iraqi government critical to its security and political concerns.
The fundamental reason for Ankara’s close interest in Iraq is the presence of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party within the Iraqi territories. The second driving force is the impact of the Syrian war and Iran’s rising influence. Turkey has strengthened joint efforts with Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, and previously with the Adil Abdul-Mahdi government, in its fight with the PKK and other terrorist groups, and hopes that it can maintain a similar cooperation with the newly formed government.
A few days after the elections, the Turkish presidency — on Oct. 20 — submitted a motion to parliament to extend the state’s authority to launch cross-border military operations in northern Iraq for another year. The motion, submitted by Erdogan’s government, had previously allowed the Turkish military to carry out cross-border operations from Oct. 30, 2020, until Oct. 30, 2021. Turkey attaches great importance to the territorial integrity, national unity and stability of Iraq, the motion said.
In the past, Turkey’s relations with Iraq have suffered due to the former’s cross-border offensive against the PKK. Baghdad has protested against Turkey’s military operations on its territory and complained about the presence of Turkish troops at the military base in Bashiqa, which Ankara established in 2015 to train local forces to fight Daesh.
However, the Al-Kadhimi government played a significant role in defusing the situation. The existence of the PKK is a fundamental threat for both Turkey and Iraq. Close cooperation between them, and with the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq, is required to fight against the PKK. Besides the threats emanating from the PKK, there is also the issue of Iranian influence in Iraq. Turkey’s strained relations with Iraq were playing into the hands of Iran, which has influence on Iraqi politics. However, the outcome of the elections and Turkey’s outreach to Iraq has become important in the sense of not leaving Iraq to Iran. The fundamental reason for Ankara’s close interest in Iraq is the presence of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party within the Iraqi territories.
Besides the security domain, economic and political issues are also motivating factors in Turkey-Iraq relations, as growing trade and energy links in the region are powerful variables informing the two countries’ relations. Iraq represents the third-largest market for Turkish exports, while Turkey’s activities in Iraq include development support, with Ankara announcing in 2019 that it will provide $5 billion in loans for the reconstruction of Iraq — a sign of its commitment to consolidating its influence in the country. Iraq and Turkey also have a joint committee to resolve issues and enhance economic relations. Turkey also backed Iraq’s recent peacemaking efforts in the region.
Thus, geography is the first principle that cannot be changed in international relations, and it is obvious that Iraq and Turkey are central to each other’s strategic calculations. At the end of the day, Turkey and Iraq are interdependent neighbors that need to cooperate on issues such as energy and security regardless of the divisions within the governments of both countries.
*Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz

Taliban powerless to stop Afghanistan’s decline
Luke Coffey/Arab News/October 22/2021
While the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan seemed to go smoother and faster than they expected, the militants now face a very different situation, with conditions in the country rapidly deteriorating. Weeks after seizing power, the militants are beginning to realize that governing is much harder than leading an insurgency. There are massive food shortages across the country. Last month Jens Laerke, spokesperson for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, warned that “basic services in Afghanistan are collapsing, and food and other lifesaving aid is about to run out.”
The economic outlook is bleak, too. According to the International Monetary Fund, the Afghan economy is expected to contract by 30 percent this year as international aid dries up and foreign investment declines.
In addition to food insecurity and a looming economic collapse, the Taliban are facing a crisis in three other areas.
The first is the lack of international recognition. At the time of writing, no country in the world has formally recognized the Taliban as the official government of Afghanistan, although Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran have signaled varying degrees of openness to doing so.
Although they might not admit it, the Taliban want international recognition to access aid and assistance. The Taliban are also desperate to occupy Afghanistan’s seat at the UN. The current Afghan representative is a hold-over from the previous Ghani government, and the question of Taliban participation was raised during the September 2021 UN General Assembly in New York. The Taliban have formally requested to send a representative to the UN, but so far this has not happened.
Recognition by the UN would mean the Taliban inheriting Afghanistan’s existing membership in other UN bodies, including the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization and the UN Commission on the Status of Women. Considering the Taliban’s record of destroying UNESCO cultural sites such as the two Buddhas of Bamiyan, as well as their well-established history of mistreating women and girls, it would be preposterous to allow the militant outfit in either organization.
The second problem involves internal disputes and fracturing within the group. The Taliban did a reasonably good job at hiding their dirty laundry when they operated in the shadows. Now that they are in government, stories and details of infighting are shedding light on the group’s dysfunctional internal relations.
For example, last month there was an apparent dispute between Mullah Baradar, co-founder of the Taliban and deputy prime minister, and Khalil Haqqani, the minister for refugees, over the division of power. Baradar is part of the Taliban’s Kandahari faction with close links to the group’s late leader, Mullah Omar, while Haqqani is the uncle of Sirajuddin Haqqani, the Taliban’s interior minister, and part of the Haqqani faction with strong influence in the east of the country.
Some reports said that the argument ended in a brawl, while others suggested Haqqani pulled a gun on Baradar and there was a shootout between their respective bodyguards. It is not clear which version is true. Either way, the Taliban have a major internal issue that must be resolved before it can start governing effectively. Adding to the Taliban’s internal problems is the status of supreme leader Haibatullah Akhundzada. Now Afghanistan’s leader, Akhundzada has never been seen in public and only one photo of him is known to exist. He has not even released an audio statement since the Taliban takeover, leading to speculation that he is dead. It is highly likely that the Taliban, and by default Afghanistan, are being led by someone who is no longer alive.
The third problem the Taliban face is one of internal security and the growing threat from Daesh. The self-described “Islamic State of Khorasan” was formed in 2015 when Daesh in Syria and Iraq was dominating the headlines. Since then, the Afghan branch has become one of the deadliest of all extremist groups in the country. The group recruits from Afghanistan and Pakistan, especially from disgruntled or former Taliban fighters. They have controlled, at their height, several small districts in Afghanistan and have been targeted by the US, the former Afghan government and even the Taliban in the past.
The growing presence of Daesh will continue to be a headache for the Taliban as they try to enforce security across the country.
Now they operate in the shadows, while coordinating complex and deadly suicide attacks targeting everyone from Taliban fighters to Shiites. Dozens of Taliban fighters have been killed by Daesh since the August takeover. The growing presence of Daesh will continue to be a headache for the Taliban as they try to enforce security across the country. It is clear that the Taliban are wholly unequipped for the task they face inside Afghanistan. The group is quickly learning that taking control of a province is not the same as governing it.
As winter approaches, Afghanistan is in a perilous state. Sadly, for the innocent Afghan people, there seems to be little the Taliban can do about it.
*Luke Coffey is the director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy at the Heritage Foundation. Twitter: @LukeDCoffey