English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 19/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.october19.22.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
I tell you, to all those who have,
more will be given; but from those who have nothing, even what they have will be
taken away
Luke 19/11-28: "As they were listening to this, Jesus went on
to tell a parable, because he was near Jerusalem, and because they supposed that
the kingdom of God was to appear immediately. So he said, ‘A nobleman went to a
distant country to get royal power for himself and then return. He summoned ten
of his slaves, and gave them ten pounds, and said to them, "Do business with
these until I come back." But the citizens of his country hated him and sent a
delegation after him, saying, "We do not want this man to rule over us. "When he
returned, having received royal power, he ordered these slaves, to whom he had
given the money, to be summoned so that he might find out what they had gained
by trading. The first came forward and said, "Lord, your pound has made ten more
pounds." He said to him, "Well done, good slave! Because you have been
trustworthy in a very small thing, take charge of ten cities." Then the second
came, saying, "Lord, your pound has made five pounds." He said to him, "And you,
rule over five cities." Then the other came, saying, "Lord, here is your pound.
I wrapped it up in a piece of cloth, for I was afraid of you, because you are a
harsh man; you take what you did not deposit, and reap what you did not sow. "He
said to him, "I will judge you by your own words, you wicked slave! You knew,
did you, that I was a harsh man, taking what I did not deposit and reaping what
I did not sow? Why then did you not put my money into the bank? Then when I
returned, I could have collected it with interest." He said to the bystanders,
"Take the pound from him and give it to the one who has ten pounds." (And they
said to him, "Lord, he has ten pounds!")"I tell you, to all those who have, more
will be given; but from those who have nothing, even what they have will be
taken away. But as for these enemies of mine who did not want me to be king over
them bring them here and slaughter them in my presence." ’ After he had said
this, he went on ahead, going up to Jerusalem.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on October 18-19.2022
Lebanon calls for exploration in
offshore gas field to begin after deal with Israel
President Aoun meets armed forces veterans’ delegation, former Minister Akar,
former MP Azar, congratulates new Iraqi president
Aoun asks TotalEnergies to quickly begin exploration in Block 9
Possible govt. solution emerges as Hezbollah reportedly presses Bassil
Ibrahim meets Mikati and Arslan prior to 'Mikati-Jumblat meeting'
Efforts ongoing to form 11th hour govt., says mediator
Mikati says 'working in silence' is better
Douaihy announces withdrawal from Change bloc
Change MPs lose in committee elections, Berri says they broke agreement
Lebanon’s Foreign Ministry welcomes “Algeria Declaration”: We hope it will be a
real turning point towards achieving Palestinian unity
Sami Gemayel snubs means by which bigger parliamentary blocs determine committee
members, exclude MPs with required expertise
Bassil says Ukraine war sped up Lebanon border deal with Israel
Patience of the world with Lebanon ‘wearing thin over lack of reforms’
When there’s good news about the Middle East, we should take note/Dennis
Ross/The Hill/October 18/2022
Scoring the Lebanon-Israel maritime deal/Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Asia
Times/October 18/2022
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on October 18-19.2022
The UN Resolution Against Russia’s Ukraine Annexations: How Did the
Middle East Vote?/The Washington Institute/October/18, 2022
Iranian regime’s relentless attacks on protesters must end, says UN human rights
chief/Ephrem Kossaify/Arab News/October 19, 2022
More protests in Iran after schoolgirl beaten to death
Iranian State Media Is Now Going After Britney Spears
Indonesians rally in support of anti-government protests in Iran
Iranian exiles, activists pen letter to the West urging more support for
protesters
Vladimir Putin is safe in power for now, but risks lie ahead, sources say
Ukraine round-up: Kyiv strikes and German spy chief fired
The Russian pilots who ejected from a military plane moments before it crashed
into an apartment building and killed 13 people could face charges, Russia says
Kyiv says Russian strikes leave over 1,100 Ukraine towns without power
Ukraine moves to cut diplomatic ties with Iran after drone attacks
Turkish troops deploy in Syrian town to halt inter-rebel fighting
Turkey arrests more than 500 over suspected ties to Erdogan foe
Protests hit Tunisian town after migrant deaths
Argentina asks Qatar to detain top Iranian official accused of Jewish center
attack
Australia reverses decision to recognize West Jerusalem as Israel’s capital
Israel vexed as Australia reverses recognition of 'capital' Jerusalem
Palestinians hail Australia's reversal on Israel capital
Titles For The
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on October 18-19.2022
Iran protests are changing US calculus on the nuclear deal/Kerry Boyd
Anderson/Arab News/October 18/2022
COP27 must shift the focus from decisions to action/JOSEFA LEONEL SACKO & KEVIN
KARIUKI & IBRAHIMA CHEIKH DIONG/Arab News/October 18/2022
Defeating the will of the Iraqi people/Farouk Yousef/The Arab Weekly/October 18/
2022
Untangling the threads of Iran’s nuclear narrative/Ellen Laipson/The Arab
Weekly/October 18/ 2022
Arabs: Biden Emboldening Iran, Harming US Interests/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone
Institute/October 18/2022
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on October 18-19.2022
Lebanon calls for exploration in offshore
gas field to begin after deal with Israel
Times Of Israel/October 18/2022
Lebanese President Michel Aoun on Tuesday urged a French energy company to begin
exploring for natural gas in Mediterranean waters, after Lebanon and Israel
reached a US-brokered agreement to divide their maritime borders. According to
the Lebanese presidency, Aoun told a delegation from TotalEnergies that he wants
drilling to swiftly begin in “Block 9,” which is near the border with Israel and
contains the Qana gas field. Aoun called for the work to begin quickly to make
up for the time that the indirect negotiations took to yield a deal, a statement
from his office said. palace, in Baabda, east of Beirut, Lebanon, October 13,
2022. (Dalati Nohra via AP) Lebanese President Michel Aoun on Tuesday urged a
French energy company to begin exploring for natural gas in Mediterranean
waters, after Lebanon and Israel reached a US-brokered agreement to divide their
maritime borders. According to the Lebanese presidency, Aoun told a delegation
from TotalEnergies that he wants drilling to swiftly begin in “Block 9,” which
is near the border with Israel and contains the Qana gas field.
Aoun called for the work to begin quickly to make up for the time that the
indirect negotiations took to yield a deal, a statement from his office said.
Lebanon’s prime minister similarly asked a visiting group of Total officials to
immediately launch exploration after the agreement was announced last week.
The deal, which Lebanon hopes can help lift the country out of its crippling
economic crisis, is intended to end a long-running dispute over some 860 square
kilometers (330 square miles) of the Mediterranean Sea, covering the Karish and
the Qana gas fields. Aoun announced Lebanon’s official approval of the deal last
week, while the Israeli government voted to back the principles of the agreement
and send it to the Knesset for a two-week review period, after which the cabinet
will vote once again to fully ratify it. palace, in Baabda, east of Beirut,
Lebanon, October 13, 2022. (Dalati Nohra via AP). According to the Lebanese
presidency, Aoun told a delegation from TotalEnergies that he wants drilling to
swiftly begin in “Block 9,” which is near the border with Israel and contains
the Qana gas field. Aoun called for the work to begin quickly to make up for the
time that the indirect negotiations took to yield a deal, a statement from his
office said. Lebanon’s prime minister similarly asked a visiting group of Total
officials to immediately launch exploration after the agreement was announced
last week.
The deal, which Lebanon hopes can help lift the country out of its crippling
economic crisis, is intended to end a long-running dispute over some 860 square
kilometers (330 square miles) of the Mediterranean Sea, covering the Karish and
the Qana gas fields.
Aoun announced Lebanon’s official approval of the deal last week, while the
Israeli government voted to back the principles of the agreement and send it to
the Knesset for a two-week review period, after which the cabinet will vote once
again to fully ratify it.
Under the agreement, Israel will receive recognition for its buoy-marked
boundary five kilometers (3.1 miles) off the coast of the northern town of Rosh
Hanikra, which it established in 2000. After that, Israel’s border will follow
the southern edge of the disputed area known as Line 23. Lebanon will enjoy the
economic benefits of the area north of Line 23, including the Qana gas field,
while Israel will move ahead with its plans to imminently begin gas production
at the Karish field. Prime Minister Yair Lapid said last week that under the
agreed terms, Israel “will receive approximately 17% of the revenues from the
Lebanese gas field, the Qana-Sidon field, if and when they will open it.”The
prime minister also argued the deal “staves off” a potential war with Hezbollah,
and denied claims by opposition figures that it would funnel money to the
Lebanese terror group.
Agencies contributed to this report.
President Aoun meets armed forces veterans’
delegation, former Minister Akar, former MP Azar, congratulates new Iraqi
president
NNA/October 18/ 2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, asserted that “Those who
contributed to the destruction of Lebanon cannot be able to save it, and that
those who put obstacles in the way of fighting corruption and achieving reform
cannot be trusted in the stage of reviving the country. Therefore, it is
necessary to bring about the change that the Lebanese yearn for”.
The President’s positions came while meeting a delegation from the Association
of Veterans of the Lebanese Armed Forces. The delegation was headed by
Major General Nicolas Mezher, and Generals: Elias Bou Habib, George Salameh,
Marwan Al Bitar, Jamal Obeid, Bassam Oweidat, Elias Younes and Boutros Noun, and
the first qualified Joseph Nassour, Antoine Bou Habib and Samih Saqr. Major
General Mezher gave a speech on behalf of the delegation in which he thanked
President Aoun for his patriotic stances and congratulated him for agreeing to
demarcate the southern maritime borders, expressing the gratitude of the members
of the Association for President Aoun's support for their just demands for
compensation and allowances allocated to them throughout the years of his term.
“We form the auxiliary army for all armed forces and the shield of legitimacy,
and as you have always said, Mr. President, the proverb "As long as the father
is the captain of the ship, do not fear that it will drown” Mezher said. For his
side, President Aoun thanked the members of the delegation for their affection,
expressing his pleasure meeting them.
“Because I am the son of the military establishment, in which I learned and
taught. During the war, we defended the values in which we believed: freedom,
sovereignty and independence, despite the inequality of the elements of power
because right is the strongest, and rights are never lost when there are who
demand for it” the President said.
President Aoun continued "There is no permanent war, and the war must end, any
war, in order to continue the path that brought me to the presidency. The
calamities appeared in my face, whether in terms of closing the borders, or the
bankruptcy of the treasury. After investigation, the perpetrators appeared and
were referred to the court, but the judiciary has been reluctant to do its duty,
and the judges have refrained from deciding the issues. Lebanon cannot be saved
with those who contributed to its destruction, change must be made. Among the
problems was also the inability to reach a specific understanding in the issues
of oil and gas, but we reached an agreement through the United Nations and
mediation. It was a gift to the Lebanese before the end of my presidential term.
It is the only way to get Lebanon out of the abyss into which it has been
thrown”.
Former Minister Akar:
The President met former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense and
Foreign Affairs, Zein Akar. Current conditions and recent developments,
especially the demarcation of the southern maritime borders were deliberated in
the meeting. Former MP Azar: The President met former MP Roger Azar, who
congratulated him on the conclusion of the indirect negotiations to demarcate
the southern maritime borders, and discussed with him general affairs.
Congratulations to the Iraqi President
President Aoun congratulated the new Iraqi President Abdel Latif Rashid, on his
election and wished him success in his duties.
Text: "Lebanon has the deepest fraternal feelings for your people, and preserves
great gratitude for your country's standing by its side in the various stages
and circumstances it has gone through.
In this context, we will not forget the support you have given us in the recent
period, to alleviate the electricity problem in Lebanon.
I am confident that you will continue to follow this approach of cooperation and
collaboration between our two countries, and that the this is motivation to work
to unite the ranks of our children to overcome all the challenges we face, and
it will soon yield good and development for Lebanon and Iraq”. -- Presidency
Press office
Aoun asks TotalEnergies to quickly begin exploration in
Block 9
Naharnet/October 18/ 2022
President Michel Aoun on Tuesday told a delegation from French oil giant
TotalEnergies that exploration for gas in Lebanon’s offshort Block 9 “should
start quickly to make up for the time that was lost during the indirect
negotiations for the demarcation of the southern maritime border.”According to
the state-run National News Agency, the delegation briefed Aoun on the
procedural and administrative preparations that TotalEnergies is carrying out in
Lebanon ahead of the start of exploration in Block 9. Expressing their delight
to work again in Lebanon following TotalEnergies’ previous work in Block 4, the
delegation’s members said a drilling platform will be brought to Lebanon in 2023
in order to begin exploration according to the texts of the agreement with
Lebanon’s petroleum administration. The delegation added that the Lebanese
petroleum administration would be regularly supplied with any new data made
available by the exploration operations.
Possible govt. solution emerges as Hezbollah reportedly
presses Bassil
Naharnet/October 18/ 2022
The so-called Druze seat obstacle that is part of many hurdles delaying the new
Cabinet’s formation might be resolved through replacing caretaker Minister of
the Displaced Issam Sharafeddine with former minister Manal Abdel Samad, a media
report said on Tuesday. “The current format that is being discussed calls for
replacing six ministers: three Christians, including Foreign Minister Abdallah
Bou Habib and Administrative Development Minister Najla Riachi, in addition to
the Druze minister and two other ministers – Youssef Khalil (Shiite) and Amin
Salam (Sunni),” unnamed sources told the Nidaa al-Watan newspaper. Another
obstacle still delaying the government’s formation is related to “the Christian
share that Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil wants, seeing as he wants
to name all its ministers without giving the PM-designate the right to express
opinion or object,” the sources said. Hezbollah has meanwhile “strongly
intervened to reconcile viewpoints regarding Bassil’s demands through seeking to
convince him not to insist on naming ministerial candidates from his party in
order not to embarrass Mikati and provoke the Sunni community,” the sources
added.
Ibrahim meets Mikati and Arslan prior to 'Mikati-Jumblat
meeting'
Naharnet/October 18/ 2022
General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim has met with Prime
Minister-designate Najib Mikati and Lebanese Democratic Party leader Talal
Arslan as part of his mediation in the government formation file, a media report
said on Tuesday. Al-Liwaa newspaper also said that Mikati might meet with
Progressive Socialist Party chief Walid Jumblat as part of the efforts to
resolve the so-called Druze obstacle. “Arslan is insisting on naming the
successor to Minister of the Displaced Issam Sharafeddine, whereas Jumblat is
opposing that, seeing as Arslan has no (parliamentary) representation, in
addition to Jumblat’s desire to name a successor to Education Minister Abbas al-Halabi,”
the daily added.
Efforts ongoing to form 11th hour govt., says mediator
Naharnet/October 18/ 2022
The government formation efforts are nearing conclusion and we are in a race
with time, a mediator said. “There is an ongoing attempt to form a government
and things are not totally deadlocked. There is still hope that a government
will be formed in the eleventh hour and I don’t believe that the president’s
term will end without the formation of a government,” the mediator told al-Joumhouria
newspaper in remarks published Tuesday. Dodging a question about the identity of
the side obstructing the government’s formation, the mediator said: “The
complications are big and the most significant is the one related to changing
some ministers or forming a government with a major reshuffle that involves
around a quarter of the ministers.” “The efforts are ongoing to resolve this
obstacle and there are meetings and consultations that took place over the past
hours and will also take place today and tomorrow on the hope that they lead to
a breakthrough,” the mediator added. “There are advices from friends and
brothers to form a government enjoying full characteristics and powers that
would oversee the signing of the sea border demarcation agreement between
Lebanon and Israel, which might take place at UNIFIL’s headquarters in Naqoura
before the end of the current month and perhaps next week,” the mediator went on
to say.
Mikati says 'working in silence' is better
Naharnet/October 18/ 2022
Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati said Tuesday that “working in silence” is
better, when asked about the cabinet formation developments. “We have nothing to
say and working in silence is better,” Mikati told al-Jadeed television. He had
announced earlier in the day that he is “resilient” in his choices in order to
“cross with our citizens to the shore of safety and rise with them from the
severe crises that are gripping our dear country.” He also hoped that the coming
days “carry signs of hope for Lebanon and the Lebanese.”
Douaihy announces withdrawal from Change bloc
Naharnet/October 18/ 2022
MP Michel Douaihy on Tuesday announced his withdrawal from the reformist,
13-member Change bloc, citing disagreements within the nascent grouping of MPs.
“I’m permanently outside the 13-member Change bloc in its current format. I
support turning the bloc into a monthly (or according to need) consultative
gathering, while granting a margin of freedom to all MPs in all issues,” Douaihy
tweeted. “What happened since the May 31 session and the bloc’s experience in
specific must come to an end out of respect for the Lebanese and for the people
who elected us and out of respect for politics,” the MP added. “Normally, we
will remain friends and we will communicate and cooperate, but to me a phase has
ended,” Douaihy went on to say. His announcement came after a parliamentary
session in which the differences of the Change MPs made them lose several key
positions in the elections of the parliamentary committees. According to al-Akhbar
newspaper, the rift over the invitation to the dinner hosted by the Swiss
ambassador has expedited the bloc’s implosion, amid expectations that it will
split into two or three smaller blocs. The daily said that nine MPs – Waddah al-Sadek,
Mark Daou, Najat Saliba, Elias Jradeh, Paula Yacoubian, Michel Douaihy, Yassine
Yassine, Rami Fanj and Melhem Khalaf – are in favor of majoritarian voting in
taking the bloc’s decisions, whereas four MPs – Halima Qaaqour, Ibrahim Mneimneh,
Firas Hamdan and Cynthia Zarazir – support consensus in taking the decisions.
Al-Akhbar added that Douaihy might choose to remain outside both splinter
groups, which would lead to an “8-4-1 format.”
Change MPs lose in committee elections, Berri says they
broke agreement
Naharnet/October 18/ 2022
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Tuesday accused the Change MPs of breaking an
agreement for consensus in the elections of parliamentary committees, as the
Change lawmakers lost several key seats. The National News Agency said the
structure of most parliamentary committees remained unchanged, except for a few
members. “MP Adnan Trabulsi won and replaced MP Ibrahim Mneimneh in the finance
committee, as MP Mark Daou only garnered 22 votes. MP Halima Qaaqour meanwhile
won only 18 votes in the elections of the administration committee as its
structure remained the same,” NNA added. “You broke the agreement,” Berri said,
when told by MP Adib Abdel Massih that there should be consensus on a member for
the Change bloc in the Administration and Justice Committee. “As it is known,
Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab had sought over the past days to reach consensus
on representing all the blocs that are not represented in the committees,
especially the Change MPs, but I was told last evening of the failure of these
efforts, and the proof is the nominations that took place,” Berri added.
Lebanon’s Foreign Ministry welcomes “Algeria
Declaration”: We hope it will be a real turning point towards achieving
Palestinian unity
NNA/October 18/ 2022
Lebanon's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants welcomed in an issued
statement on Tuesday “the Palestinian reconciliation agreement that was reached
in Algeria, as a culmination of the tireless efforts of its leadership."The
Ministry hoped in its statement that the "Algeria Declaration" will be a real
turning point towards achieving Palestinian unity on the basis of the success of
the reunification process patronized by Algeria and a step forward towards
consolidating the political partnership among the various forces and factions,
in a way that ends the state of division and achieves the aspirations of the
brotherly Palestinian people. The statement continued: “The Palestinian people
at home and in the diaspora are in dire need of the cohesiveness and unity of
their national leadership in order to be able to achieve their legitimate goals
of return and building their independent state on their national soil.” “The
Ministry highly appreciates the great role played by the sisterly Algeria, to
realize this achievement, under the leadership and efforts of President
Abdelmajid Tebboune, based on the true commitment to the supreme interest of the
Palestinian people,” the statement concluded.
Sami Gemayel snubs means by which bigger parliamentary blocs determine committee
members, exclude MPs with required expertise
NNA/October 18/ 2022
Kataeb Party leader, MP Sami Gemayel, on Tuesday said via his Twitter account:
"The prior agreements method that’s being adopted in forming parliamentary
committees is utterly unacceptable, and we objected against it during the
parliamentary session because agreements among larger blocs exclude MPs who can
actually thrive at work within their expertise and jurisdiction."
Bassil says Ukraine war sped up Lebanon border deal with Israel
Associated Press/October 18/ 2022
Lebanon hopes that demarcating maritime borders will pave the way for gas
exploration.
The war in Ukraine and rising demand for natural gas around the world helped
speed up a US-mediated maritime border deal between Lebanon and Israel, a
prominent Lebanese legislator allied with the militant Hezbollah group said on
Monday.
The agreement is expected to help bring stability to the eastern Mediterranean.
Gebran Bassil, who is under sanctions by the US, also said in an interview at
his office that “it would be a crazy act” if caretaker Prime Minister Najib
Mikati does not form a new government before the six-year term of President
Michel Aoun ends October 31. Disagreements between Aoun and Mikati have delayed
the formation of a new cabinet since May 15, following parliamentary elections.
Since then, the government has been working as a caretaker. Parliament failed
during two sessions in recent weeks to elect a president and it is highly
unlikely that a new head of state will be voted in to the country’s top job
before Aoun’s term ends, leaving the country without a president. Bassil is
Aoun’s son-in-law and heads the Christian nationalist Free Patriotic Movement
founded by the president. He has yet to endorse a candidate. Bassil, who heads a
21-member parliamentary bloc in the 128-member legislature, said that despite
media reports, he does not see himself as a candidate. “We do not need in
addition to our financial and economic crisis, a political crisis that splits
the people on how to deal with the government,” Bassil said about the
possibility of the government taking over once Aoun leaves office. He added that
not forming a cabinet will lead to “constitutional chaos.”“We will not accept
that such a government runs the country. This is a cabinet that did not win a
vote of confidence and lacks constitutional legitimacy,” Bassil said.
Israel and Lebanon both have accepted the US-mediated sea border deal following
months of negotiations. A signing ceremony is expected along the two countries’
border by the end of the month. “Although this agreement is not a normalisation
process with Israel, but it helps us, you know, to restore more stability in the
region where we need to attract the investors,” Bassil said.
Lebanon is in the grip of its worst economic and financial crisis in its modern
history. In July, the Israeli military shot down three unarmed drones belonging
to Lebanon’s Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah flying over the offshore
Karish field. At the time, Lebanon said it was in a disputed area. Hezbollah’s
leader has issued warnings to Israel over the maritime dispute, saying that “any
arm” that reaches out to steal Lebanon’s wealth “will be cut off.”“I think that
the equation established with the strength or the force of Hezbollah and the
threat to use it is what helped,” Bassil said about the heavily-armed group that
fought Israel to a draw in 2006. Lebanon hopes that demarcating maritime borders
will pave the way for gas exploration to help lift it out of its crippling
economic crisis, while Israel wants to exploit gas reserves and hopes the deal
will reduce the risk of war with Hezbollah. Bassil, a former energy minister,
said the deal with Israel should lead to Lebanon to launch negotiations with
Syria to solve the dispute over more than 900 square kilometres between the two
countries as well as reviewing Beirut’s maritime borders with the island of
Cyprus. “It is the gas era and Lebanon should not be outside of it,” Bassil
said, adding that demand for gas around the world triggered by Russia’s invasion
of Ukraine since late February helped seal the deal. “We had the guarantees,
clearly, from the US and also from France and Total that once this is done …
Total as block operator will restart its petroleum activities offshore Lebanon,”
Bassil said.
He was referring to the French oil giant Total that hopes to start drilling in
Block Number 9 along the border once the agreement is signed. In 2017, Lebanon
approved licences for an international consortium including France’s Total,
Italy’s ENI and Russia’s Novatek to move forward with offshore oil and gas
development for two of ten available blocks in the Mediterranean Sea. Novatek
recently withdrew and officials, including Energy Minister Walid Fayad have said
that Qatar is interested in filling that gap. Bassil, who has also served as
Lebanon’s foreign and telecommunications minister, said he was sanctioned in
2020 by the US because of his alliance with Hezbollah, which is designated a
terrorist organisation by Washington. The US government designation, under the
2012 Magnitsky Act, said Bassil was “at the forefront of corruption” in Lebanon,
was involved in “misappropriation of state assets” and “the expropriation of
private assets for personal gain.” Bassil said during the interview that he is
appealing the case in the US by contacting the Treasury Department demanding
that details of his file be made public.
Patience of the world with Lebanon ‘wearing thin over
lack of reforms’
Najia Houssari/Arab News/October 18/ 2022
BEIRUT: Saadeh Al-Shami, Lebanon’s caretaker deputy prime minister, warned on
Tuesday that “although international institutions are still interested in
helping Lebanon,” the patience of the international community is wearing thin
because of the slow pace of economic reforms in the country,
He said that the attention of the world is instead shifting toward poor and
emerging countries that are struggling as a result of difficult global economic
conditions. Lebanon has been gripped by a devastating economic crisis since
October 2019 that has left two-thirds of the population in poverty.
Al-Shami, who led the Lebanese delegation at the annual meetings of the
International Monetary Fund and the World Bank from Oct. 10 to 16 in Washington,
said: “Lebanon must abide by the constitutional deadlines, including for
presidential elections and the formation of a government with full powers, to
expedite the implementation of the necessary reforms so as not to lose the
support of the international community in these difficult circumstances. “We
cannot ask of others what we do not ask of ourselves; we have to help ourselves
so others can help us.”
A parliamentary session took place on Tuesday to elect members of official
committees, followed by a legislative session the agenda for which included a
draft law intended to transform banking operations in the country and make them
more transparent, which is a key reform required by the IMF before international
economic assistance can be provided.
MP Ibrahim Kanaan, head of the Finance and Budget Committee, said: “We are
coordinating with the IMF and have agreed on the majority of items in the draft
law, with the exception of a pivotal and essential item related to protecting
the depositors’ personal information and rights.”
However, activist groups such as the Legal Agenda, Kulluna Irada, the Committee
for the Protection of the Rights of Depositors, and the Lebanese Association for
Taxpayers’ Rights staged a protest against the parliamentary committee for
making amendments to the draft banking law that disregard its main purpose,
which is to eliminate secrecy in the sector and establish mechanisms to ensure
accountability. Sibylle Rizk, Kulluna Irada’s director of public policies, said:
“Auditing the accounts of the central bank and other banks and determining the
sources of funds is the starting point for restructuring the banking sector in a
fair manner for depositors, and in a healthy way to advance the economy.
“Lifting banking secrecy is a pillar of any recovery plan. It is no coincidence
that the IMF considers it a priority.”Lawyer Karim Daher, from the Lebanese
Association for Taxpayers’ Rights and the Committee for the Protection of the
Rights of Depositors at the Beirut Bar Association, said: “Lifting banking
secrecy enables the distinction to be made between legitimate and illegal
deposits, and thus to equitably distribute the responsibilities and burdens
resulting from the economic collapse and the restructuring of debts and the
banking sector.”
The Legal Agenda’s co-founder and executive director, Nizar Saghieh, said:
“Parliament’s Finance and Budget Committee ignored the IMF’s observations in
terms of linking the competence of the tax authorities to issues of combating
tax evasion.
“It also did not apply the retroactive law to the time period that caused the
economic and financial crisis on bank owners and managers, thus absolving them
of all blame.”
According to a report published by the World Bank on Oct. 13, Lebanon is one of
20 countries that has imposed a number of bans on the export of basic foods to
address domestic scarcity. On March 18, authorities banned the export of fruit
and vegetables, milled grain products, sugar and bread, until the end of this
year, and permanently banned the export of meat products, fish, potatoes and
some other foods. In all, 29 bans were put in place. Bechara Al-Asmar, the head
of Lebanon’s General Labor Union, demanded that the minimum wage be increased to
LBP20,000,000 ($500), on the grounds that current salary increases are minimal
given the massive depreciation of the Lebanese currency, which has lost more
than 95 percent of its value against the dollar in the past three years.
When there’s good news about the Middle East, we should
take note
Dennis Ross/The Hill/October 18/2022
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3691995-when-theres-good-news-about-the-middle-east-we-should-take-note/
Rarely is there good news to write about in the Middle East. The same seems to
be true of foreign policy more generally. So when something good happens, and
American mediation produced it, we should call attention to it.
The US-brokered agreement establishing the maritime boundary between Israel and
Lebanon is such an achievement.
Having been an American mediator in the Middle East, I know why it is so
difficult to produce understandings or agreements between warring parties.
Lebanon and Israel remain in a state of war, but this agreement now reduces the
risk of conflict and creates a mutual stake in both countries being able to
extract natural gas. Without the agreement, the risk of conflict would have gone
up dramatically — even if neither Israel nor Hezbollah in Lebanon had wanted it.
Both understand the potential costs of such a war. Hezbollah’s leader Hassan
Nasrallah consistently makes threats against Israel but has been largely
deterred since the war in 2006, understanding the devastation Israel could
inflict if Hezbollah provokes a conflict. But Israel, too, has little interest
in a war, knowing that Hezbollah has the means to launch as many as 3,000
rockets a day against Israeli cities and economic targets for several weeks.
Nonetheless, the risk of conflict was growing because Nasrallah declared that
Hezbollah would stop Israel from extracting natural gas from the Karish rig in
Israeli waters if Lebanon could not also exploit the natural gas in the areas,
including the Qana field, where there were conflicting Israeli and Lebanese
claims. For its part, Israel declared it would start producing natural gas by
the end of October — and would answer any Hezbollah threats or attacks with a
powerful military response. Such a conflict looked increasingly inevitable. Now
it is off the table.
While Hezbollah’s enmity toward Israel remains unchanged, its stake in avoiding
conflict has grown, particularly because the development of the Qana field holds
the promise of providing desperately needed revenue for the state of Lebanon.
David Barnea, the director of Mossad, observed that “Nasrallah is in a bind
because in all the years he did not want Lebanon to sign any agreements with
Israel because they would grant it legitimacy. But once he realized the Lebanese
public supports the agreement and views it as something that will improve its
difficult situation, he decided to piggyback on it.” That creates a new reality
in which Hezbollah has acquiesced in a deal with Israel that actually demarcates
a boundary. War as a possibility does not disappear, but it becomes less likely
now. It does not mean Lebanon is about to make peace with Israel, but it is a
step toward normalization.
The timing of the Israeli election on Nov. 1 was bound to trigger controversy
over the agreement and make it a political football. But there was a political
clock in Lebanon that argued strongly for finalizing the deal now and having
Lebanese President Michel Aoun sign it. His term ends on Oct. 31, and there is
no agreement on who will replace him much less when that might happen. The U.S.,
Israel, and the Lebanese recognized the danger of leaving the deal unsigned and
in limbo.
One rule of thumb in the Middle East is always lockdown an agreement when you
can because events may erupt and undo it.
Any agreement is bound to have critics, and this one, beyond the politics, has
generated criticism from those who believe Israel conceded too much in giving up
claims on the Qana field and the waters beyond what is known as Line 23. But the
Israeli security establishment is not among those criticizing the deal. On the
contrary, the Israeli military believes the agreement met Israel’s essential
security needs by preserving the buoy line that extends 3.1 miles into the water
from the land crossing that separates Lebanon and Israel at Ras al Naqoura and
Rosh Hanikra. This boundary will now be acknowledged as the status quo and can
only be changed by the agreement of the Israelis and Lebanese. From the
military’s standpoint, this definition of the boundary prevented line of sight
into Israel and was essential for Israel’s security. In fact, the IDF and the
intelligence chiefs all came out strongly in favor of the agreement. They
collectively saw it not only as reducing the prospect of war but also
potentially providing an infusion of revenue that could prevent the complete
collapse of Lebanon — a reality that the Israeli security establishment saw as
certain to lead to greater instability along its border.
Criticism of concessions made in any deal are legitimate and to be expected. In
this case, the concessions the Israelis made need to be weighed against the
strategic benefits of the deal — and these are quite real, ranging from reducing
the risk of war to establishing the precedent of Lebanon recognizing a boundary
with Israel — even if only a maritime boundary.
The Navy needs to put its oceanography community in place to lead the nation
The Democrats’ social agenda is losing independent swing voters
One other strategic fact should be noted: The gas that Israel will soon be
extracting will be exported to Europe. At a time when Europe needs alternatives
to Russian gas, this is a welcome development and another byproduct of the
American mediation effort.
In reality, this deal was possible only because of American mediation — and
because of that mediation, Israeli, Lebanese, and American interests have been
advanced.
*Dennis Ross is counselor and the William Davidson Distinguished Fellow at the
Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He served as special assistant to
President Obama, as Special Middle East Coordinator under President Clinton, and
as director of the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff in the first Bush
administration. He is the author, with David Makovsky, of “Be Strong and of Good
Courage: How Israel’s Most Important Leaders Shaped Its Destiny.” Follow him on
Twitter @AmbDennisRoss
Scoring the Lebanon-Israel maritime deal
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Asia Times/October 18/2022
This much is certain: Declarations of victory, by either side, are premature
The headline-grabbing maritime boundary deal announced between Lebanon and
Israel this week produced several winners and losers. Determining who is who is
another matter.
Leaders in each country claimed victory after US President Joe Biden unveiled
the agreement, while opposition groups on both sides accused their own
governments of conceding national wealth. There are also questions about the
deal itself and whether it will survive the political storms that are coming.
So, before finalizing the score, we must first identify what was, and remains,
at stake.
The long-standing dispute was over a maritime border serving two key purposes:
security, and delineation of the countries’ exclusive economic zones (EEZs).
On the security side, Israel clearly came out on top. Israel will maintain
control over a line that starts 5 kilometers from the coast and stretches into
territory that Lebanon considers its own. Lebanon tried to push this line south,
but Israel resisted, concerned that a shift would give the Lebanese direct
access to Israel’s north.
The tally on economics is more mixed.
Until the early 2000s, when Israel and Egypt began discovering gas reserves in
their territorial waters, there had been little economic activity in the eastern
Mediterranean. Once gas was found, Lebanon began conducting seismic explorations
of its own, which hinted that it too had gas reserves that were commercially
viable.
Exploration rights to the most promising Lebanese blocks – 4 and 9 – were
awarded to the French oil giant Total in 2018.
Total drilled Block 4, off the coast of Beirut, in 2020, but came up dry. Total
said it would not drill Block 9, whose southern border was disputed by Israel,
without Israel’s consent – which in turn required having Hezbollah on board.
Not long ago, Hezbollah’s buy-in for a deal with Israel would have been
inconceivable. But the free-falling Lebanese economy forced Hezbollah to bend.
Lebanon is a rentier state. Oligarchs use its resources to offer their partisans
social services, including government jobs, health care and pensions. With the
state going bankrupt, millions of Lebanese find themselves without a social
safety net. Some have started to rely on Hezbollah’s services, which are also
stretched to breaking point.
For instance, the Great Prophet Hospital, Hezbollah’s main health-care facility
in Beirut, has been unable to cope with an ever-growing roster of patients. The
hospital can barely keep the lights on, and medicine is in such short supply
that those who live with chronic diseases, such as diabetes, have few options.
Lebanon has already run out of affordable insulin.
As Lebanon falls apart, Hezbollah is being squeezed. Lebanon’s Shia, from whom
it draws its support, are hurting, while the party – and its impoverished
sponsor Iran – can do little to ease the suffering.
In the hopes of producing gas to help mitigate Lebanon’s economic disaster,
Hezbollah sued for settlement of the maritime border issue to allow Total to dig
up Block 9.
But before the party’s chief, Hassan Nasrallah, went on national television on
the eve of the deal’s announcement to metaphorically drink the poison, he’d
flown a couple of drones into Israeli airspace in the summer, presumably
targeting Israel’s Karish gas field.
Nasrallah pretended that he had put Israel on notice: He would hit Karish if
Israeli production began before a deal with Lebanon was reached. In other words,
Hezbollah was threatening Israel with war to force a deal.
Everyone, especially Israel, knew Hezbollah couldn’t drag Lebanon into war in
its current state. Yet Israeli officials likely believed they could extract some
concessions from Lebanon, such as the demarcation of borders between them, both
on land and at sea.
Hezbollah wanted a compromise, but not one that recognized Israel and demarcated
borders in a way that would end all territorial disputes between the two sides.
Hezbollah, after all, exists to fight Israel. Thus terrestrial border
demarcation was taken off the table.
In its place came a maritime boundary that stopped 5km short of shore, leaving
most of Block 9’s Qana field in Lebanese hands.
If gas is discovered in Qana, Lebanon will receive 83% of its revenue, while
Israel will get 17%. In previous scenarios offered by the United States, Israel
was given 45% of the disputed area.
While assessing Qana’s reserves has to wait until later stages of exploration,
the Israeli Ministry of Energy predicts that Qana holds just US$3 billion worth
of gas. With $68.9 billion in external debt, Qana’s potential won’t move the
economic needle in Lebanon. Unless Qana proves to be a mega field, or unless
other fields are suddenly discovered, Lebanon’s claim of economic victory in
maritime talks over Israel will prove misplaced.
But if Qana surprises with big reserves, or if other fields with sizable amounts
of gas are discovered, Israel would have shot itself in the foot by taking the
US-brokered deal.
Moreover, the temporary nature of the deal could allow Israel to ask for
reconsideration, or it could crumble completely. The deal itself is not a treaty
between two countries, but a US document and deposit of maps with the UN (the
second such deposit since 2009).
None of this went through a ratification process – at least not in Lebanon. In
Israel, the cabinet voted but the Knesset did not, and an Israeli cabinet vote
could be reversed by a future cabinet vote.
Finally, if Israel’s opposition leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, who trashed the deal
during its run-up, becomes prime minister again on November 1, Israel could
withdraw before it’s clear how much gas Qana holds, if any.
No matter how all of this plays out, this much is certain: Declarations of
victory, by either side, are premature.
This article was provided by Syndication Bureau, which holds copyright.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on October 18-19.2022
The UN Resolution Against Russia’s Ukraine Annexations: How Did the
Middle East Vote?
The Washington Institute/October/18, 2022
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/un-resolution-against-russias-ukraine-annexations-how-did-middle-east-vote
Brief Analysis
Most of the region supported the measure, with one nay vote, a pair of notable
changes since the March resolution, and several strong statements in support of
territorial integrity.
On October 12, the UN voted on whether to condemn Russia’s illegal referendums
and annexations in Ukrainian territory over the past month. This was the General
Assembly’s second condemnation resolution since the war began in February. The
first was adopted on March 2, just a week after Russia’s invasion, with members
voting overwhelmingly (141-5) to denounce the attack and demand that Moscow
withdraw its military forces. In the Middle East and North Africa, fourteen
countries voted in support of the March measure, one voted against, three
abstained, and one did not vote.
Seven months later, 143 UN members voted in favor of the new resolution,
including sixteen countries in the Middle East and North Africa. One country in
the region voted against it, one abstained, and another did not vote (see below
for full details). Notably, Iraq supported the current resolution after
abstaining in March; Morocco did the same after not voting on the first
resolution. Neither country provided public comment on its decisions.
Algeria
March 2: Abstain
October 12: Abstain
Statement by Algeria’s permanent representative to the UN: “Algeria would like
to express its grave concern over the deterioration of the situation in Ukraine
and the exacerbation of polarization that contributes largely to the escalation
of the crisis and its repercussions on international peace and security. In this
regard...Algeria would like to confirm yet once again that we are firmly
committed to the principles of international law and the principles and
objectives of the charter of the United Nations, particularly respect for the
sovereignty of states and categorical opposition to the annexation of
territories. We appeal to the international community and to the United Nations
to discharge their responsibilities and to cease fully the approach of double
standards, and to work on ending all forms of occupation and annexation of
territories by force that are listed on our agenda for decades, particularly in
Palestine, the occupied Syrian Golan, and Western Sahara.”
Bahrain
March 2: In Favor
October 12: In Favor
Egypt
March 2: In Favor
October 12: In Favor
Statement by Egypt’s permanent representative to the UN: “The delegation of
Egypt supported the draft resolution in accordance with its principles, namely,
preserving the principles and purposes of the UN Charter rejecting the threat or
use of force in disputes and choosing peaceful methods of dispute settlement, as
well as respecting the territorial integrity of states. Egypt reiterates its
call to the parties in the conflict, namely Russia and Ukraine, and all those
with influence to bear to put an end to the hostilities and contain the negative
impacts that this conflict is having on civilians in order to make sure that
both parties’ interests can be addressed in an equal manner and to ensure
international peace, stability, and security. This crisis is impacting the
entire world; developing states, including Egypt, are the most affected when it
comes to energy and food prices, in particular the price of grain, which is an
essential commodity for our population. There are also impacts on economic
activity, employment, and inflation, and our concerns about these impacts are
not being heard. Egypt calls for reason, calls to dialogue, and to refrain from
any actions that would worsen this crisis.”
Iran
March 2: Abstain
October 12: No vote
Statement by Iran’s permanent representative to the UN: “As a country that has
been confronted with and affected by the devastation caused by an imposed war,
the Islamic Republic of Iran opposes any conflict or war anywhere in the world.
The Islamic Republic of Iran has consistently supported peace and ending the
conflict in Ukraine, and urged the parties to exercise restraint, avoid
escalating tensions, and engage in a meaningful process for addressing the root
causes of the situation and settling their disputes through peaceful means. It
also urged the parties to uphold their obligations under international
humanitarian law and conduct consultations to protect civilians and critical
infrastructure from military targets or attacks.”
Iraq
March 2: Abstain
October 12: In favor
Israel
March 2: In favor, cosponsor
October 12: In favor
Jordan
March 2: In favor
October 12: In favor
Kuwait
March 2: In favor, cosponsor
October 12: In favor
Lebanon
March 2: In favor
October 12: In favor
Libya
March 2: In favor
October 12: In favor
Morocco
March 2: No vote
October 12: In favor
Oman
March 2: In favor
October 12: In favor
Qatar
March 2: In favor, cosponsor
October 12: In favor
October 3 statement by Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs: “The state of Qatar
is following with great concern the current developments in the
Russian-Ukrainian crisis concerning Russia’s announcement of the annexation of
Ukrainian territories, stressing the necessity of respecting Ukraine’s
sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized
borders and pursuing dialogue as a way to resolve the crisis. The Ministry of
Foreign Affairs affirms the position of the state of Qatar on the need to adhere
to the United Nations Charter and the well-established principles of
international law, including obligations under the Charter to settle
international disputes by peaceful means.”
Saudi Arabia
March 2: In favor
October 12: In favor
Statement by Saudi Arabia’s permanent representative to the UN, speaking on
behalf of the Gulf Cooperation Council: “The states of the GCC follow with
extreme concern the situation in Ukraine since the conflict started. We would
like to stress that the countries of the council have friendly relations with
all parties and are convinced that the best way to avoid any negative
repercussions is through settlement of the crisis diplomatically and dialogue in
a way that caters to the interests of all parties concerned. Therefore, members
of the council urge all parties to exercise self-restraint, avoid escalation,
and adopt peaceful means for the resolution of disputes. The voting of the
member states of the GCC in favor of the draft resolution comes out of our
commitment to the firm principles of international law and the Charter of the
United Nations. We confirm the need to respect sovereignty of states, good
neighborly relationships, and abstention from the use or threat of use of force,
as well as settling disputes peacefully.”
Syria
March 2: Against
October 12: Against
Statement by the Syrian Arab News Agency: “Syria’s permanent representative to
the UN, Bassam Sabbagh, said that the continued hostile and provocative approach
adopted by some Western countries toward the crisis in Ukraine is a clear
indication that these countries seek to inflame the war and stir the new Nazism
trend in Ukraine, referring to a draft resolution submitted by the Western
states to the UN General Assembly. ‘Syria condemns the systematized campaign
launched by Western states and their media tools against Russia through
broadcasting fake information, fabricated accusations, and false photos and
videos, which aim to impede the natural right of Russia to defend its people,’
Sabbagh said.”
Tunisia
March 2: In favor
October 12: In favor
Turkey
March 2: In favor, cosponsor
October 12: In favor, cosponsor
Statement by Turkey’s permanent representative to the UN: “Russia’s attacks on
many Ukrainian cities, which today have caused civilian casualties, are deeply
worrying and unacceptable. We reiterate once again our strong support for
[Ukraine’s] integrity, independence, and sovereignty. We also unequivocally
reject the illegitimate referendums. Russia’s decision to annex the Donetsk,
Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine is illegal. It constitutes
a gross violation of international law. It cannot be accepted.”
United Arab Emirates
March 2: In favor
October 12: In favor
Yemen
March 2: In favor
October 12: In favor
This compilation was prepared by David Patkin, Erik Yavorsky, Faris Almaari,
Frances McDonough, Sude Akgundogdu, Sarah Cahn, Gabriel Epstein, Lauren von
Thaden, May Kadow, and Moeed Baradaran, under the auspices of The Washington
Institute’s Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power
Competition and the Middle East.
Iranian regime’s relentless attacks on protesters must
end, says UN human rights chief
Ephrem Kossaify/Arab News/October 19, 2022
NEW YORK CITY: Volker Turk, the UN’s high commissioner for human rights, on
Tuesday said he is deeply concerned about the unrelenting violent crackdown by
security forces on protesters in Iran, including reports of arbitrary arrests
and the killing and detention of children. More than a month after nationwide
protests broke out over the death in police custody of 23-year-old Mahsa Amini,
as many as 23 children have been killed and many more injured in a number of
provinces by live bullets or metal pellets fired at close range, or by fatal
beatings, according to Turk’s office.Ravina Shamdasani, a spokesperson for the
high commissioner, said that security forces have carried out raids on several
schools, during which children were arrested, along with school principals who
refused to cooperate with the officers. Iran’s minister of education confirmed
that “an unspecified” number of children were sent to “psychological centers”
after they were detained while participating in anti-government protests. “Under
human rights treaties, accepted by Iran, the Islamic Republic has an obligation
to protect children’s right to life under any circumstances, and to respect and
protect their right to freedom of expression and peaceful protest,” according to
a statement issued by Shamdasani. “Along with the mass arrests of protesters,
our office has also received reports of the arrests of at least 90 members of
civil society, including human rights defenders, lawyers, artists, and
journalists. On Oct. 12 three lawyers were arrested as they demonstrated outside
the bar association in Tehran.”A large number of such detainees, along with
students, opposition politicians and environmentalists, are among the inmates at
Evin prison in Tehran, where a fire broke out on Oct. 15. Although the
circumstances surrounding the blaze remain unclear, there have been reports of
explosions and gunfire. Iranian officials said at least eight prisoners died and
61 were injured. Many prisoners were reportedly beaten during the incident and
transferred to other detention centers. Shamdasani repeated UN Human Rights
Office concerns about “patterns of ill-treatment, torture and medical neglect of
prisoners,” and said: “Violations of due process, including keeping prisoners
incommunicado in solitary confinement with no access to a lawyer, are common.
“The continued unnecessary and disproportionate use of force against protesters
must stop. Arresting people solely for exercising their rights of peaceful
assembly and freedom of expression constitutes an arbitrary deprivation of
liberty.”The office has called on Iranian authorities to immediately release all
detainees, while reminding them of their obligation under international law to
protect the physical and mental health and well-being of inmates, adding that
“any use of force must strictly comply with the principles of legality,
necessity, proportionality and non-discrimination.” It also urged the regime in
Tehran to conduct “prompt, impartial and independent investigations into all
alleged violations, including the killing of children, and to ensure those
responsible are prosecuted” and, more broadly, to “address the underlying causes
of the grievances of the population instead of using violence to suppress the
protests.”
More protests in Iran after schoolgirl beaten to death
Arab News/October 18, 2022
Asra Panahi, 16, died in hospital, sparking outrage
LONDON: An Iranian schoolgirl has reportedly been killed after refusing to sing
a song in favor of the regime in Tehran in her classroom. Sixteen-year-old Asra
Panahi was allegedly beaten along with several classmates by security forces
after Shahed girls high school in Ardabil was raided on Oct. 13 amid nationwide
protests, according to the Coordinating Council of Iranian Teachers’ Trade
Association. Several of the girls were taken to hospital and a number arrested.
Panahi is thought to have died of her injuries. Iranian state officials denied
responsibility, and a man claiming to be her uncle later appeared on state TV
following widespread anger at her death to claim she had died of a congenital
heart condition. Protests have spread across Iran in recent weeks following the
death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in the custody of the country’s morality police
in August. Younger women and girls have been especially prevalent in opposing
the regime, with footage going viral of many removing their hijabs and chanting
slogans against the country’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The crackdown against
protesters has been brutal, including raids on schools featuring arrests,
beatings and tear-gassing, which the country’s teachers’ union called “brutal
and inhumane.”The Iran Human Rights group says 215 people have been killed in
the demonstrations and subsequent crackdowns so far, 27 of whom were children.
One schoolgirl, identified pseudonymously as Naznin, told The Guardian
newspaper: “I haven’t been allowed to go to the school because my parents fear
for my life. But what has it changed? The regime continues to kill and arrest
schoolgirls. “What good am I if I simply sit outraged at home? Myself and fellow
students across Iran have decided to stand in protest on the streets this week.
I’ll do it even if I have to now hide it from my parents.” Another woman,
identified as Nergis, told The Guardian that she had been shot with rubber
bullets after going to protest following Panahi’s death, in addition to the
deaths of two other Iranian schoolgirls, 17-year-old Nika Shahkarami and
16-year-old Sarina Esmailzadeh. “I don’t have a single relative in Ardabil,”
Nergis said, “but with this brutal crackdown on our sisters, who were just 16
years old, they’ve awakened the whole nation. “We never knew we were so united —
across the Baloch regions as well as the Kurdish regions. The world has heard
about Nika, Sarina and Asra, but there are so many other nameless children who
we know nothing about. “The Islamic Republic has been killing our people for 40
years, but our voices weren’t heard. Let the world know this is no longer a
protest — we are calling for a revolution. Now that you’re all listening to our
voices, we will not stop.”
Iranian State Media Is Now Going After Britney Spears
CT Jones/ Rolling Stone/October 18/2022
Iran’s state sponsored media, the Islamic Republic News Agency, has turned their
focus from state propaganda to U.S. icon Britney Spears. After Spears tweeted
her support for the Iranian citizens currently protesting the country’s morality
police, the IRNA shot back on Twitter by mentioning Spears’ years-long
conservatorship. “American singer Britney Spears was placed under her father’s
conservatorship in 2008 due to her mental health problems,” the organization
tweeted. “That gave Britney’s father control over her finances and even her
personal life aspects such as pregnancy, remarriage and visits to her teenage
sons.” The IRNA’s tweet, and media response, is part of an ongoing (and failing)
strategy to drown out widespread support for Iran’s nationwide protests. The
current protests center around the September death of 22-year-old activist Mahsa
Amini. Amini was arrested by Iran’s morality police in Tehran under claims that
she was not properly clothed in the required religious headscarf and modest
dress. She died in police custody. Following news of her detainment and
subsequent death, Amini’s family spoke out, claiming that the young girl was
beaten to death by police. The IRNA has continued to deny the claim and assert
the girl had a heart attack, even as Amini’s death has sparked some of the
biggest nationwide protests in years. Earlier this year, Spears married
Iranian-American actor and model Sam Asghari. Since the protests began, the
couple has been extremely vocal about their political beliefs, including her
support for the Iranian protestors. “Me & my husband stand with the people of
Iran fighting for freedom,” Spears tweeted on Sunday. The IRNA didn’t even have
the decency to quote-tweet the “Baby One More Time” singer, instead
screenshotting the tweet to include a user’s response that read “Nice tweet. Can
you manage your own money yet?” The IRNA’s tweet was accompanied with the
hashtag #MahsaAmini. The late activist’s name has been used as a rallying cry
for the ongoing protests against the country’s morality police. In the past
month, IRNA’s social media accounts have continued to use the hashtag to
populate pro-protest online spaces with government narratives. The organization
seems to be taking some inspiration from the recent popularity of comedic
government accounts. Since the start of the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and
Russia, Ukraine’s official twitter account has taken a comfortable approach to
social media, tweeting out memes and clapbacks in between serious videos and
articles surrounding the conflict. And this isn’t the first time the IRNA have
pushed back against big name support for the protestors. Last week, the
organization posted a meme claiming that international superstar Shakira was
ignoring police violence against women in the United States and Saudi Arabia,
continuing to assert that Amini died of a heart attack instead of police
brutality. But their attempted comedic media response has been unable to break
through a wave of celebrity support for the Iranian protests. Stars like Bella
Hadid, Justin Bieber, Olivia Coleman, Angelina Jolie, and even Jake Paul have
spoken out against accounts of police brutality against protestors and called
for wider awareness of the Iranian movement. And in the country, Iran’s protests
continue to grow. In the past week, hundreds of children have joined the
protestors ranks and the cries of “Women, Life, Freedom,” have inspired
potential sanctions from the European Union — demonstrating that even with the
organization’s pithy comments about pop stars, international support and the
voices of hundreds of thousand of Iranian protestors continue to ring out
louder.
Indonesians rally in support of anti-government protests
in Iran
Sheany Yasuko Lai/Arab News/October 18, 2022
JAKARTA: Hundreds of Indonesians rallied in front of the Iranian Embassy in
Jakarta on Tuesday, calling on Tehran to investigate the deaths of dozens of
women and children killed by Iran’s security forces during ongoing anti-regime
protests. Iran’s largest antigovernment protests in over a decade have swollen
since mid-September, spreading to all provinces and 80 cities. They were ignited
by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old who was arrested by
Iranian morality police on accusations of not properly wearing her headscarf. In
the past weeks, Iranian authorities have escalated their crackdown on
demonstrators. Norway-based nongovernmental organization Iran Human Rights
estimates that at least 215 people, including 27 children, have been killed.
Civil society organizations, activists and members of the Iranian diaspora who
took part in Tuesday’s demonstration in Jakarta have called on the Indonesian
government to use its leverage as the largest Muslim-majority country and help
stop the violence. “We urge the Indonesian government to use its power as the
country with the largest Muslim population in the world so the Iranian
government stops all forms of violence, including the abduction and murder of
its people who are calling for reforms in Iran,” Ririn Sefsani, a Jakarta-based
women’s rights activist and one of the protest organizers, told Arab News.
Protesters were seen holding placards reading “Woman, Life, Freedom” — the
phrase that has been used by demonstrators in Iran. Ten women were also seen
cutting their hair in a symbolic act that has been adopted by many Iranian
female activists in defiance of the rules of compulsory hijab. “We hope that our
action will spread and strengthen the global solidarity movement for Iran,”
Sefsani said. Indonesian protesters also called for the release of Iranian
journalists who have been detained since Amini’s death. Out of at least 31
journalists who have been arrested, 21 are still behind bars, according to
Reporters Without Borders. Andreas Harsono, a senior Indonesian journalist and
one of the founders of the Alliance of Independent Journalists in Indonesia,
said they would continue to protest as long as their Iranian colleagues remain
imprisoned. “It will be difficult for any country, including Iran, when press
freedom is silenced and journalists are imprisoned,” he said.
Iranian exiles, activists pen letter to the West urging
more support for protesters
Arab News/October 18, 2022
LONDON: Protesters standing up to the brutal crackdown by the government in Iran
need the same level of support from the West as Ukrainians in their conflict
against Russia, a group of prominent exiled Iranians has said. In an open letter
signed by 77 people, including human rights activists and families of political
prisoners of dual nationality, the EU, US and UK were urged to do more to
support Iranians’ demands for freedom. Protests erupted last month following the
death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old who died in the custody of Iran’s morality
police after being detained for not wearing her hijab correctly. The letter’s
signatories include the daughter of freed British prisoner Anoosheh Ashoori,
freed Australian academic Kylie Moore-Gilbert and Kazem Moussavi, German Green
Party spokesperson on Iran. The letter accused the West of imposing “largely
symbolic” travel bans and asset freezes on a handful of security forces members
in Iran responsible for the crackdown, which has claimed the lives of hundreds
of Iranians, and criticizes its continued dialogue with Tehran over the revival
of the 2015 nuclear deal. It read: “These young Iranians are bold and brave and
not willing to give into the ruthlessness of the regime any longer. They are
fighting for their life and they are fighting with their lives. “Meanwhile, the
Iranian regime is antagonizing their own population by imprisoning, torturing
and killing. And it is antagonizing the ‘free world’ with a cruel game of chess,
with a hostage-taking policy using dual citizens or non-Iranian citizens as
pawns. “Torturing them in solitary confinement, denying them basic human rights,
destroying their lives and those of their families. “Democratic countries have a
responsibility to speak out, and have a choice to make: Will we side with the
oppressor or with the ones screaming for freedom and justice? “While Ukrainians
are battling an outside invader, Iranians are fighting an inside enemy — the
regime. The ‘free world’ has proven that it is capable of supporting the fight
for freedom of Ukraine. Sanctions have been decided within days, clear actions
have been taken. “Now is the time to take action and to support the Iranian
people in their struggle against a dictatorship.”
Vladimir Putin is safe in power for now, but risks lie
ahead, sources say
Andrew Osborn, Phil Stewart and John Irish/LONDON (Reuters)
Vladimir Putin's grip on power in Russia remains firm despite military setbacks
in Ukraine, a botched mobilisation, and political infighting, eight
well-informed sources said, but some said that could change fast if total defeat
beckoned.
Most of them said the Russian president was in one of the tightest spots in his
more than two decades in power over Ukraine, where his invading forces have been
pushed back in places by a Western-armed Kyiv. But the sources, including
current and former Western diplomats and government officials, said no imminent
threat was apparent from his inner circle, military or intelligence services.
"For the moment, Putin is hanging in there," said Anthony Brenton, a former
British ambassador to Russia. He said he believed the Russian leader hoped to
negotiate over Ukraine, probably with the Americans, and hoped Moscow's flagging
battlefield fortunes would pick up despite what the West says is a lack of
manpower, hardware and even missiles. In power since 1999, Putin has weathered
numerous domestic crises and wars, and more than once faced down large street
protests before effectively outlawing any real opposition. The 70-year-old's
"special military operation" in Ukraine since Feb. 24, however, has created the
most tense East-West standoff since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis and triggered
the harshest Western sanctions against Russia ever. His army has endured
humiliating retreats as well as huge losses, and hundreds of thousands of
Russian men have fled abroad to avoid combat. Putin has also engaged in nuclear
sabre-rattling in what some interpret as a sign of desperation. Some allies --
from "Putin's foot soldier", as the Kremlin-backed leader of Chechnya calls
himself, to "Putin's chef", nickname of the head of a once shadowy mercenary
group -- have accused military chiefs of mishandling the war. Brenton, who dealt
with Putin during his second term, said there had been no public criticism of
him from the political or business elite or any sign of a move against him, but
that may not last.
"If they find themselves continuing to retreat come the spring, come March/April
next year, then my instinct is that at that point things become really
problematic for Putin -- not at the popular level, but at the elite level. "You
have a bunch of people there who are fundamentally self-interested who don't
want to be part of an eventual debacle."
'WORKING ARGUMENTS'
Protests against mobilisation by relatives, Ukraine's vow not to deal with Putin,
and an apparently unscripted and quickly walked-back assertion from U.S.
President Joe Biden that Putin must not be allowed to stay in power, have
fuelled speculation about his future.
Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesman, said a Washington Post report this month that
a member of Putin's inner circle had confronted him over the war was "absolutely
not true" but said there was candid policy debate. "There are working arguments:
about the economy, about the conduct of the military operation," Peskov told
reporters. "It is not a sign of any split."The Kremlin says Putin is backed by
an overwhelming majority of Russians and won a landslide re-election victory in
2018. Russia's political system is famously opaque, though Washington showed in
the run-up to the invasion that it could discern Moscow's plans. A senior
Western official who follows the situation closely and declined to be named due
to the sensitivity of the subject, said there had so far been no major
defections. There were signs of infighting, complaints and slow decision-making,
the official said: "But there are no signs that he's lost control." A U.S.
official who declined to be named for the same reason said Washington and its
allies assumed Putin's position was secure. "That said, many of his recent
actions - including mobilisation - clearly show Putin is on the back foot."With
powerful intelligence services underpinning a political system staffed by
closely-watched loyalists, it would be difficult and dangerous for anyone to
move against him. Andrew Weiss, a Putin specialist at the Carnegie Endowment,
said that while "everything is possible" in Russia, public opinion is less
important there than in the West, real opponents have fled or been jailed and
Putin was surrounded by loyalists. "Show me the person who's going to speak in
Putin's office and say you're done. Who would have the audacity to do that?"
said Weiss, who has had various policy roles on the U.S. National Security
Council and has written a book about Putin. The Russian leader could be toppled
through a palace coup, an elite rebellion, or a grassroots "storming of the
Bastille", he said, while noting that Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein had ruled for
more than a decade after his 1990 invasion of Kuwait was thwarted.
'FEAR REIGNS'
Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the R.Politik analysis firm, said Putin would be
in trouble if he ran out of options to escalate the conflict. In that case, the
elite would try to persuade Putin to step aside, she predicted, adding there was
no sign yet of the kind of coups which unseated Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev
in 1964 or targeted Mikhail Gorbachev in August 1991. "If he's able to ...
fulfil his unspoken obligations before the elite and the population --
stability, peace, pensions and salaries -- then nothing will threaten him," said
Stanovaya. "But if ... the Russian army is pushed back to the old borders of
Russia pre-annexation, if the Ukrainian army goes on the offensive further...and
if the budget can't cope and there are delays to pensions...the elite will
gradually mobilise." Though opinion polls in Russia show growing public anxiety,
one French diplomatic source said they thought Putin, who dominates influential
state media, could maintain his grip. "Let's not forget that fear reigns," said
the source. "I still think a majority of Russians will back Putin whatever he
decides." A senior European official said Putin would have to demonstratively
lose the war to be unseated. If and when that time came, said former British
ambassador Brenton, his successor was unlikely to be a friend of the West. "The
people who are going to make the decisions are tough securocrats. We're not
going to get a cuddly liberal."
(Reporting by Andrew Osborn in London, Phil Stewart in Washington and John Irish
in Paris; Writing by Andrew Osborn; Editing by Philippa Fletcher)
Ukraine round-up: Kyiv strikes and German spy chief fired
Tue, October 18, 2022 at 3:46 p.m.
At least three people have been killed by Russian strikes in the Ukrainian
capital Kyiv, as Moscow continues to target key infrastructure across the
country. Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko said that the victims of the latest
Russian attacks were employees of "critical infrastructure", adding that two
facilities in the city had been hit. Meanwhile, thousands of towns and cities
across the country have been left without power and President Volodymyr Zelensky
said Russian strikes had destroyed about 30% of Ukraine's power stations over
the past eight days. The latest attacks came 24 hours after "kamikaze" drones -
believed to have been supplied by Iran - killed at least nine people in Kyiv and
Sumy, in the north-east. Ukraine has identified the drones used in deadly
attacks on Kyiv and the eastern city of Sumy as Shahed-136 unmanned aerial
vehicles (UAVs). They are known as Geran-2 in Russia.
Earlier, the US said it agreed with its French and UK allies that the supply of
drones by Iran violated a UN Security Council resolution linked to a nuclear
agreement, barring the transfer of certain military technology. The Russian
attacks prompted Ukraine's energy minister to call for international help to
"close the sky" over his country to protect its energy infrastructure. Herman
Halushchenko told the BBC Hardtalk programme that the strikes, including from
missiles, had caused vast amounts of damage to his country.
Nord Stream blast 'blew away 50 metres of pipe'
At least 50 metres (164ft) of an underwater pipeline bringing Russian gas to
Germany is thought to have been destroyed by a blast last month. Video shot by a
Norwegian robotics company and published by Swedish newspaper Expressen appears
to show the massive tear in the Nord Stream 1 pipe. Danish police believe
"powerful explosions" blew four holes in the pipe and its newer twin, Nord
Stream 2. It is still unknown who or what caused the blasts amid suspicions of
sabotage. Western leaders have stopped short of directly accusing Russia but the
EU has previously accused Moscow of using its gas supplies as a weapon against
Ukraine's allies. The Kremlin has accused Western investigators of seeking to
blame Russia for the damage. "Elementary logic" shows damaging the pipeline was
not in Moscow's interest, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday.
German cybersecurity chief fired over Russia connections
Germany's cybersecurity chief, Arne Schönbohm, has been fired after allegations
of being excessively close to Russia through an association he helped set up. Mr
Schönbohm has led the Federal Cyber Security Authority (BSI) - charged with
protecting government communications - since 2016, but was accused by German
media of having had links with people involved with Russian intelligence
services. His former employer, a private company called the Cyber Security
Council Germany, is accused of having a subsidiary of a Russian firm set up by
an ex-KGB officer as a member. The company denies any wrongdoing. A spokesperson
for Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said public trust in Mr Schönbohm's
"neutrality and impartiality" had been damaged, but emphasised that the security
chief would be "presumed innocent" while an investigation into the allegations
was conducted.
Republican leader hints at cutting Ukraine funding
The leader of the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives has hinted
that he could seek to slash aid to Ukraine if the party wins November's midterm
elections. Kevin McCarthy told the US media outlet Punchbowl news that President
Joe Biden's huge financial support for Ukraine meant that other areas, including
border control - a massive priority for Republican legislators - had been
ignored. "I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they're not
going to write a blank cheque to Ukraine," he said. "Ukraine is important, but
at the same time it can't be the only thing they do and it can't be a blank
cheque."The US has so far provided billions of dollars of military and
humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and in a call with President Volodymyr Zelensky
last week Mr Biden vowed to continue that support.
The Russian pilots who ejected from a military plane
moments before it crashed into an apartment building and killed 13 people could
face charges, Russia says
Jake Epstein/Business Insider/October 18, 2022
A Russian Su-34 aircraft crashed into an apartment building in western Russia,
killing 13 people. The two pilots managed to eject from the aircraft after an
engine caught fire during training. Now, a Russian committee is investigating to
see if the pilots could faces charges for the incident. The engine of a Su-34
strike fighter caught fire shortly after takeoff during a Monday training
mission, Russian officials said, forcing the pilots to eject from the aircraft
before it plunged into an apartment courtyard in western Russia's port city of
Yeysk. Russia's Investigative Committee said on Telegram that the crash — which
left 13 people dead and sent 19 more to the hospital — is being investigated as
a criminal case for possible violation of flight rules or flight preparation
rules, where negligence resulted in the death of an individual.According to a
document from a United Nations criminal agency that outlines that part of
Russia's criminal code, the pilots or ground crew could face a punishment of
"deprivation of liberty" for up to seven years, though it's not immediately
clear what that may actually entail. Russia's Investigative Committee said
military investigators and forensic specialists are at the scene.entation. The
pilots who managed to eject, as well as the airfield personnel, are being
interrogated," the committee said. "Flight recorders have already been seized
from the crash site, and expert examinations have been appointed on
them."Russia's Investigative Committee continued: "Currently, the investigation
is considering a technical malfunction of the aircraft as the main version of
the fall." Videos published to social media on Monday of footage from security
cameras appeared to show the warplane catching on fire, before quickly losing
altitude. The aircraft then dove behind a collection of buildings, causing an
initial fireball that was followed by a second, larger explosion.
One photograph showed a parachute that appeared to belong to one of the pilots.
Insider was unable to independently verify the videos or photographs. Yeysk,
which is home to around 80,000 people and a Russian military air base, is
located along the Sea of Azov and is a short distance from the occupied
Ukrainian city of Mariupol. An open-source intelligence analysis by Oryx has
documented at least 16 Su-34 fighter-bombers that Russian forces have lost since
they invaded Ukraine nearly eight months ago. Monday's accident also took place
just hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces launched a series of
suicide drone attacks on Kyiv, which killed several people.
Kyiv says Russian strikes leave over 1,100 Ukraine towns
without power
Agence France Presse/October 18/2022
Kyiv said Tuesday that more than 1,100 towns and villages across Ukraine had
been left without power after 10 days of Russia strikes that have targeted
energy facilities across the country. "For now, 1,162 settlements in
Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovograd, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Lugansk,
Mykolaiv, Kherson regions remain cut off from electricity," a spokesperson for
Ukraine's emergency services Oleksandr Khorunzhyi said during a briefing.
Ukraine moves to cut diplomatic ties with Iran after
drone attacks
Reuters/October 18, 2022
KYIV: Ukraine’s foreign minister said on Tuesday he was submitting a proposal to
President Volodymyr Zelensky to formally cut diplomatic ties with Tehran after a
wave of Russian attacks using what Kyiv says are Iranian-made drones. Russia
launched dozens of “kamikaze” drones on targets in Ukraine on Monday, striking
energy infrastructure and killing several civilians. Ukraine says the attacks
were carried out with Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones. Tehran denies supplying
the drones. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Kyiv was certain they
were Iranian and would be ready to share a “bag of evidence” to European powers
in doubt. “Tehran bears full responsibility for the destruction of relations
with Ukraine,” Kuleba told a news conference. “I am submitting to the president
of Ukraine a proposition to sever diplomatic ties with Iran.” Kuleba said he had
urged the European Union to impose sanctions on Iran “for helping Russia to kill
Ukrainians.”“Severe sanctions against Iran are especially relevant right now, as
we are witnessing reports on Iranian intentions to give Russia ballistic
missiles to be used against Ukrainians,” he said. “The actions of Iran are vile
and deceitful. We won’t suffer them, because all those actions were done while
Iran told us that they didn’t support the war and won’t support any of the sides
with their weapons.”Kuleba said Kyiv would send an official note to Israel
seeking immediate air defense supplies and cooperation in the sector. There was
no immediate Israeli response to Kuleba’s remarks. Earlier on Tuesday, a member
of Israel’s decision-making security cabinet, Justice Minister Gideon Saar, told
national broadcaster Army Radio: “Our support for Ukraine does not include
weapons systems and weaponry — and there is no change to that position.” While
Israel has condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine and provided Kyiv with
humanitarian relief, it has stopped short of also providing military support,
citing concern for continued cooperation with Moscow over next-door Syria.
Turkish troops deploy in Syrian town to halt inter-rebel
fighting
Reuters/October 18, 2022
AMMAN: Turkish troops deployed on Tuesday in an area in northwestern Syria to
try to halt fighting between rival rebel factions opposed to Syrian President
Bashar Assad, witnesses and rebel forces said. Turkish tanks and armored
vehicles took up positions around Kafr Jana, a rugged area that the main
jihadist rebel group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham seized on Monday from two rival
factions belonging to a coalition of rebel forces backed by Ankara. Turkish army
and security officers worked to bring the warring factions back to the
negotiating table to implement a peace deal reached last Saturday that led to a
one-day respite from five days of clashes that left scores dead on both sides.
“Turkey has now intervened to stop the conflict and prevent Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham
from progressing and to get both sides to the negotiating table to implement the
accord,” Waiel Olwan, a former opposition official in touch with both sides,
said. Tensions have been building in the opposition-held northwest under rebel
control, mainly over ideological differences between Islamist militant and more
nationalist-leaning armed factions. Monday’s renewed fighting was triggered by
mutual charges that both sides had reneged on the Turkey-brokered deal that saw
jihadist fighters withdraw from the city of Afrin, which they seized from
mainstream rebels. Those rebels also agreed to go back to their barracks away
from the populated cities. Turkey fears HTS’s hold over much of the insurgent
enclave would give Moscow a free hand to renew the bombing of a region that is
home to more than 3 million displaced Syrians who fled Assad’s rule under the
pretext of fighting hard-line jihadists. Russian fighters have in the last few
days escalated strikes in the area in a message by Moscow that it will strike
with impunity areas that now fall under the wider influence of the jihadist
group, three rebel commanders said. Washington, which has been leading a
coalition campaign that has killed in recent years hard-line jihadists
affiliated with Al-Qaeda in northern Syria, demanded a return to the status quo.
“We are alarmed by the recent incursion of HTS, a designated terrorist
organization, into northern Aleppo. HTS forces should be withdrawn from the area
immediately,” the US Embassy in Damascus said. Turkey’s large military presence,
with thousands of troops stationed in a string of bases in northwest Syria, had
held back Russian-backed Syrian forces from seizing the rebel-held area. Rebels
said the jihadist group, which has expanded its influence since fighting broke
out in Afrin region, was now positioned several kilometers away from the border
city of Azaz, the administrative center of the mainstream Turkish-backed
opposition government. A senior official in the coalition fighting HTS said they
had reinforced positions around the city to repel any attempt by the jihadists
to take it over. Azaz has seen in the last two days street protests opposed to
the entry of the jihadists. Many inhabitants fear a takeover by the jihadists
who run an efficient civilian administration in the Idlib region, their main
stronghold, but rule with an iron fist.
Turkey arrests more than 500 over suspected ties to
Erdogan foe
AFP/October 18/2022
ISTANBUL: Turkish authorities announced the arrests of more than 500 people
Tuesday, suspected of links with a preacher accused of having plotted a failed
coup in 2016. Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu said just over 700 arrest
warrants had been issued, with 543 people having been detained.
They are suspected of having collected or redistributed money sent from abroad
by supporters of US-based preacher Fethullah Gulen. Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan, once an ally of Gulen, accuses him of having been behind the
failed coup against him in July 2016. Gulen, a Muslim cleric, has repeatedly
denied any involvement and the United States has denied Turkey’s requests for
his extradition. Since the failed putsch, more than 300,000 people have been
arrested in Turkey over suspected ties to Gulen. Tuesday’s operation was carried
out in 59 of the country’s 81 provinces.
Protests hit Tunisian town after migrant deaths
Reuters/October 18, 2022
TUNIS: A southern Tunisian coastal town was paralyzed by protests on Tuesday
amid growing anger over the fate of people who drowned in a migrant shipwreck
last month, with some buried in unmarked graves. The powerful UGTT labor union
called a general strike in Zarzis on Tuesday, bringing to a head days of smaller
protests to demand authorities do more to find missing bodies and improve living
conditions. Images showed the streets of Zarzis packed with protesters chanting
anti-authority slogans with shops and government institutions closed. “Today the
state continues to ignore us and does not even search for those drowned,” said
Salim Zreidat, whose 15-year-old son Walid was among the missing. “What has the
state done for us to stop our children running? Is there employment? Nothing,”
he said, adding that Walid felt he had no future in Tunisia despite being an
excellent student.
As the economy has lagged and public finances run into crisis amid political
upheaval, many Tunisians have taken to often rickety boats to join the illegal
migration route to Europe. Dozens have died this year in shipwrecks as boats
attempted the journey from Tunisia’s eastern coast to the Italian island of
Lampedusa. Protests began in Zarzis this month after a boat believed to be
carrying 18 migrants disappeared. Last week local fishermen searching for the
wreck found eight bodies. Anger increased when authorities buried the bodies in
a graveyard for migrants rather than work to identify them, and were slow to
search for those missing. As anger over unemployment and shortages of food and
fuel intensified across Tunisia, there were four consecutive nights of protests
in the capital’s poor Ettadamen district as youths clashed with police.
Argentina asks Qatar to detain top Iranian official
accused of Jewish center attack
Reuters/October 18, 2022
BUENOS AIRES: Argentina’s justice department has asked Qatar to arrest a top
Iranian official for his alleged participation in a 1994 attack on a Jewish
community center in Buenos Aires that killed 85 people. Federal judge Daniel
Rafecas late on Monday requested the detention of Iran Vice President for
Economic Affairs Dr. Mohsen Rezaei Mirghaed, who is currently in Qatar, so he
can be tried in Argentina. Argentina does not currently have an extradition
treaty with Qatar. Investigations into the 1994 attack, in which an
explosives-laden truck blew up outside the Argentine Israeli Mutual Association
(AMIA) building, have made little progress. Argentine courts have blamed the
attack on Iran. But no one has been brought to trial in either that case or a
deadly 1992 bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires. Iran denies playing
a role in either attack. “The accusation made against him arises from his proven
participation at the meeting in which carrying out the attack on AMIA’s
headquarters was decided,” Rafecas said an official letter requesting the
detention.
Australia reverses decision to recognize West Jerusalem as
Israel’s capital
Reuters/October 18, 2022
Yair Lapid on Tuesday sharply criticized Australia’s decision
SYDNEY/JERUSALEM: Australia on Tuesday reversed a decision of the previous
government to recognize West Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, saying the
status of the city should be resolved through peace negotiations between Israel
and the Palestinian people. Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong said Australia
“will always be a steadfast friend of Israel” and was committed to a two-state
solution in which Israel and a future Palestine coexist in peace within
internationally recognized borders. The government “recommits Australia to
international efforts in the responsible pursuit of progress toward a just and
enduring two-state solution,” she said in a statement. Israel’s Foreign Ministry
voiced “deep disappointment” with the decision and said it would summon the
Australian ambassador. “Jerusalem has been the capital of the Jewish people for
3,000 years and will continue to be the State of Israel’s eternal and united
capital, regardless of this-or-that decision,” the ministry said in a statement.
Previous Prime Minister Scott Morrison had reversed decades of Middle East
policy in December 2018 by saying Australia recognized West Jerusalem as the
capital of Israel but would not move its embassy there immediately.
Former US President Donald Trump had recognized Jerusalem as the capital a year
earlier, without elaborating on the boundaries of a city whose eastern sector —
the location of major Jewish, Christian and Muslim holy sites — Palestinians
want for their future capital. Wong told reporters Morrison’s 2018 decision “put
Australia out of step with the majority of the international community,” and was
met with concern by Muslim-majority neighbor Indonesia. “I regret that
Mr.Morrison’s decision to play politics resulted in Australia’s shifting
position, and the distress these shifts have caused to many people in the
Australian community who care deeply about this issue,” she said. Morrison had
flagged moving the embassy from Tel Aviv in 2018 just days before a by-election
in a Sydney electorate with a strong Jewish representation, which his Liberal
party nonetheless lost. The Guardian first reported a change to the Department
of Foreign Affairs and Trade website to remove language describing West
Jerusalem as the capital on Monday. Wong said the decision was made by Prime
Minister Anthony Albanese’s Cabinet on Tuesday. Israeli Prime Minister Yair
Lapid, a centrist lagging behind his conservative predecessor Benjamin Netanyahu
ahead of a Nov. 1 election, accused Canberra of being misled by a media report
about Jerusalem. “We can only hope that the Australian government manages other
matters more seriously and professionally,” he said on Twitter.Wong earlier told
reporters the department website had been updated “ahead of government
processes.”Morrison’s Liberal-led coalition lost a national election in May,
returning a Labor government for the first time in nine years.
Israel vexed as Australia reverses recognition of
'capital' Jerusalem
Agence France Presse/October 18/2022
Australia said it would no longer recognize west Jerusalem as Israel's capital
Tuesday, a policy reversal that prompted a curt rebuke from the Jewish state but
was cheered by Palestinians. Foreign Minister Penny Wong said the city's status
should be decided by Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, unwinding a contentious
decision by the previous conservative government. In 2018, Australia's
then-prime minister Scott Morrison followed U.S. president Donald Trump's lead
in unilaterally recognizing west Jerusalem as the Israeli capital. The move
caused a domestic backlash in Australia and friction with neighboring Indonesia
-- the world's most populous Muslim-majority nation -- temporarily derailing a
bilateral free trade deal. "I know this has caused conflict and distress in part
of the Australian community, and today the government seeks to resolve that,"
Wong said. Jerusalem is claimed by both Israelis and Palestinians, but most
governments avoid putting embassies there to avoid prejudging the outcome of
negotiations for a lasting peace. "We will not support an approach that
undermines" a two-state solution, Wong said, adding: "Australia's embassy has
always been, and remains, in Tel Aviv". Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid
criticized Tuesday's move -- which comes as he prepares to face a November 1
general election. "We can only hope that the Australian government manages other
matters more seriously and professionally," he said. Israel annexed east
Jerusalem following the Six-Day War of 1967, and has declared the entire city
its "eternal and indivisible capital". Palestinians claim the eastern sector as
the capital of their future state. The Palestinian Authority's civil affairs
minister, Hussein Al-Sheikh welcomed the move by Canberra as an "affirmation"
that Jerusalem's status depends on the outcome of negotiations.
Hamas, the Islamist group that controls Gaza, called it "a step in the right
direction."Indonesia also welcomed the decision. "This policy would hopefully
contribute positively to Palestinian-Israeli peace negotiations," the foreign
ministry in Jakarta said.
Steadfast friend -
Wong insisted that the decision -- which has limited practical impact -- did not
signal any broader shift in policy or hostility towards Israel. "Australia will
always be a steadfast friend of Israel. We were amongst the first countries to
formally recognise Israel," she said. "We will not waver in our support of
Israel and the Jewish community in Australia. We are equally unwavering in our
support of the Palestinian people, including humanitarian support." The
center-left Labor party, with Anthony Albanese as prime minister and Wong as
foreign minister, came to power in May 2022 after strongly opposing the previous
government's Jerusalem policy. Wong accused the Morrison government of making
the Jerusalem decision to influence a by-election in a Sydney suburb with a
sizeable Jewish community. "You know what this was? This was a cynical play,
unsuccessful, to win the seat of Wentworth and a by-election," she said.
- Symbolism -
Canberra's shift was foreshadowed by the removal of language about the Israeli
capital from the website of Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.
Although Australia is not a major player in peace talks, Ran Porat, a historian
and researcher at Melbourne's Monash University, said the move was significant.
"In the Middle East in general, symbolism is very much at the center of many
conflicts. Symbolism is not negligible, it's not unimportant." Porat added that
the move could be seized on by Israel's opposition Likud, led by Benjamin
Netanyahu, as evidence of the government's failings ahead of next month's
election. Netanyahu tweeted Tuesday that it was "no surprise" Australia made the
decision while Lapid was in power, condemning the premier for supporting
Palestinian statehood in an address to the UN General Assembly last month.
Palestinians hail Australia's reversal on Israel capital
Agence France Presse/October 18/2022
The Palestinians on Tuesday hailed Australia's decision to reverse its
recognition of west Jerusalem as Israel's capital despite fierce criticism by
Israel. "We welcome Australia's decision with regards to Jerusalem & its call
for a two-state solution in accordance with international legitimacy," the
Palestinian Authority's civil affairs minister, Hussein al-Sheikh, said on
Twitter. Sheikh hailed Australia's "affirmation that the future of sovereignty
over Jerusalem depends on the permanent solution based on international
legitimacy". Announcing the change of policy by Australia's center-left
government, Foreign Minister Penny Wong said Jerusalem's status should be
decided through peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians, and not through
unilateral decisions. "We will not support an approach that undermines" a
two-state solution, she said, adding: "Australia's embassy has always been, and
remains, in Tel Aviv." Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid described the policy
reversal by Australia's center-left government as a "hasty response". "Jerusalem
is the eternal and united capital of Israel and nothing will ever change that,"
Lapid said in a statement released by his office. In 2018 a conservative
government led by Scott Morrison followed then U.S. president Donald Trump's
lead in naming west Jerusalem as the Israeli capital. The move caused a domestic
backlash in Australia and caused friction with neighboring Indonesia -- the
world's most populous Muslim-majority nation -- temporarily derailing a free
trade deal.
Jerusalem captured east Jerusalem in the Six-Day War of 1967 and later annexed
it in a move not recognized by most of the international community. The city is
claimed by both Israelis and Palestinians, and most foreign governments avoid
formally declaring it the capital of any state.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on October 18-19.2022
Iran protests are changing US calculus on the nuclear deal
Kerry Boyd Anderson/Arab News/October 18/2022
US officials and analysts are carefully watching the protest movement in Iran.
Returning to a nuclear deal with Tehran has been a top foreign policy priority
for the Biden administration, but the recent anti-government protests might be
changing the White House’s calculus.
The current protest movement began in mid-September following the death of a
young woman, Mahsa Amini, while in morality police custody. Small protests
quickly evolved into large, widespread demonstrations that present a serious
problem for the government.
President Joe Biden and his foreign policy officials have tried to demonstrate
support for the protesters while keeping their options open. President Barack
Obama faced criticism in 2009 for not doing more to support the Green Movement
protests in Iran and Biden is taking a somewhat different approach, quickly
expressing support for the protesters and condemning the government’s violent
response. At a speech before the UN General Assembly in September, Biden said
that the US stands “with the brave citizens and the brave women of Iran who
right now are demonstrating to secure their basic rights.” Since then, Biden and
senior foreign policy officials have expressed support for the protesters.The
administration has also taken practical steps. In September, the US imposed
sanctions on Iran’s morality police and seven leaders of Iranian security
organizations. This month, it added sanctions on seven Iranian officials deemed
responsible for restricting internet access. Washington also took steps to ease
the provision of digital services to Iranians, particularly loosening some
sanctions that might have blocked technology companies from working in Iran and
encouraging those companies to “facilitate greater access for the Iranian people
to secure online platforms and services.”
Meanwhile, Iran experts in Washington are debating what the protests could mean
for the country, including whether the protests could turn into a full
revolution. There is a general consensus that this protest movement is a serious
development and is unlikely to be completely quashed by the government. A number
of experts have said that the revolution is starting, but others are more
cautious. Even if a revolution occurs, there are many potential outcomes, which
may or may not align with US interests.
As experts and officials debate the future of Iranian politics, there is a
related discussion about US policy toward the Iran nuclear deal, known as the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. There are three competing positions. First,
opponents of the JCPOA say that the protests in Iran provide additional
arguments against returning to the agreement. Second, some JCPOA advocates argue
that returning to the agreement is more important than ever. Third, other JCPOA
supporters suggest a wait-and-see approach; while they still support a nuclear
deal with Iran in principle, they are not sure that the current moment is a good
time to pursue it. It is not yet fully clear what approach the Biden
administration will take, but the White House seems to be following the
wait-and-see approach. At the UN, Biden repeated his commitment to ensuring that
Iran does not acquire a nuclear weapon, while adding that “I continue to believe
that diplomacy is the best way to achieve this outcome.”
Before the current protests began, the JCPOA was stalled. After hopes for an
agreement rose over the summer, Iran made additional demands, leaving the
negotiations in limbo and unlikely to move much before the US midterm elections
in November.
Now, the protest movement in Iran is shifting Washington’s calculus, as Biden
and his officials consider whether and how to approach the stalled nuclear
negotiations. The protests are now layered on top of the previous challenges. No
one wants to invest too much in a government that has an uncertain future. Iran
has used uncertainty over who will succeed Biden as president as a bargaining
chip in talks. Washington might now demonstrate reluctance to make a deal with
an Iranian government in crisis.
The US government is not pursuing regime change in Iran. At the same time, it
does not want to do anything to prop up the current regime. The Biden
administration saw the JCPOA as a valuable deal that limited and monitored
Iran’s nuclear program and there were hopes that sanctions relief might help
reintegrate Iran into the global economy and moderate its government. Now, the
White House is reluctant to lift sanctions if it might benefit a government that
is violently responding to protests, especially when Iranians are calling for an
end to that government.
The White House is reluctant to lift sanctions if it might benefit a government
that is violently responding to protests.
Biden must also consider the domestic political implications of signing a deal
with Iran in the wake of these protests. Biden promised to make human rights a
top priority in foreign policy but has taken a more pragmatic approach in
office. However, he would not welcome the image of signing an agreement with a
government at the same time that it is actively using significant violence
against people calling for basic rights. At the very least, little progress in
negotiations is likely before the US elections on Nov. 8.
US presidents and their senior officials always come into office with ambitious
foreign policy plans and events outside of their control always disrupt those
plans. Biden’s pursuit of a return to the JCPOA is a good example. Previously,
Biden’s team had to manage obstacles created by the Iranian government; now, the
Iranian people have created unexpected complications. Biden may have been
willing to negotiate hard with the Iranian regime, but he is unlikely to take
steps that might appear to undermine the protest movement.
*Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 18
years of experience as a professional analyst of international security issues
and Middle East political and business risk. Her previous positions include
deputy director for advisory with Oxford Analytica. Twitter: @KBAresearch
COP27 must shift the focus from decisions to action
JOSEFA LEONEL SACKO & KEVIN KARIUKI & IBRAHIMA CHEIKH DIONG/Arab News/October
18/2022
November’s UN Climate Change Conference, known as COP27, will come at a time of
economic and geopolitical turmoil, affecting food security, public health and
more. But the immediate challenges we face must not distract us from an
unassailable truth: The single most important battle our generation will face is
the fight against climate change.
Earlier this year, extreme rainfall caused one of South Africa’s deadliest
disasters this century. Today, the worst floods in Pakistan’s history have left
a third of the country under water. Far from freak occurrences, such severe
weather events are becoming the new normal. Experts believe that extreme
rainfall is now twice as likely owing to climate change, which has also led to
other types of devastation, such as droughts and wildfires.
Africa is especially vulnerable to these effects. According to the acting chief
economist of the African Development Bank, climate change is costing the
continent between 5 percent and 15 percent of its per capita gross domestic
product growth. As time passes, those losses could increase considerably, with
agriculture suffering the most. This would have devastating consequences not
only for economic development, but also for food security.
Many are calling COP27 — being hosted in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt — “Africa’s
COP.” But we in Africa prefer to see it instead as “the implementation COP,” a
meeting that will move beyond lofty aspirations and vague pledges to deliver a
comprehensive results-oriented agenda. And, yes, that agenda should include
delivering greater support — financial and otherwise — to Africa, which has
contributed the least to climate change.
To echo African Development Bank President Akinwumi Adesina, we Africans do not
come to beg; we come with resources and solutions. We are already taking
concrete action to accelerate the green transition and protect ourselves from
the worst effects of climate change.
For starters, African countries are embracing green energy. In recent years, the
continent’s renewable energy capacity has risen sharply, with double-digit
annual increases in solar, wind and hydro power. Africa is home to two of the
world’s largest solar projects (in Egypt and Morocco), while two of Africa’s 20
fastest-growing companies in 2022 are in the solar energy business. From Nigeria
to Namibia, countries are embracing climate-friendly technologies like green
hydrogen.
The African Union Commission is fully engaged in tackling climate change on
multiple fronts. The mandate of the AU Commission for Agriculture, Rural
Development, Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment has been broadened to
reflect the importance of resilience-building, adaptation and mitigation. It has
been working on a number of defining projects with partner organizations,
including elaborating on the AU Climate Change Strategy. It also recently
contributed to developing an integrated strategy to guide the development and
application of weather and climate services in Africa.
Meanwhile, specialized agencies of the AU, such as the African Risk Capacity
Group, are helping African countries take advantage of technology-based
early-warning and preparedness systems to improve their resilience. The
organization works closely with governments to strengthen their capacities to
protect lives and support reconstruction of damaged infrastructure in the wake
of natural disasters. Through ARC Limited, the insurance affiliate of the group,
it provides parametric insurance against extreme weather events.
For its part, the African Development Bank has shifted its attention — and
resources — toward climate change. In 2020, 63 percent of its funding went to
projects related to climate change adaptation, the largest share of any
development finance institution. This year, the bank committed another $12.5
billion toward climate adaptation financing through the Africa Adaptation
Acceleration Program — an African-led multi-stakeholder body established in
2021.
Africa’s adaptation financing needs are estimated at $52.7 billion annually
through 2030. The program’s funding target was set at $25 billion, with rich
countries expected to make up the rest. But even as Africa pursues — and funds —
climate action, the international community’s commitments continue to fall
short.Even as Africa pursues — and funds — climate action, the international
community’s commitments continue to fall short
Josefa Leonel Sacko, Kevin Kariuki and Ibrahima Cheikh Diong
And commitments are only the first step. We commend the British government’s
success, at COP26 in Glasgow last year, in mobilizing not only the international
community, but also the private sector and civil society, thereby crowding in
record climate finance pledges. But a year on, many of these pledges remain just
that — promises.
Perhaps we should not be surprised. After all, at the 2009 COP in Copenhagen,
rich countries committed to deliver $100 billion in annual funding to help
developing countries advance mitigation and adaptation goals by 2020. Two years
after the target date, rich countries’ commitments remain largely unfulfilled.
That is why we are calling for the introduction of improved mechanisms for
monitoring and tracking climate finance commitments. It should not be difficult
to attach clear timelines and implementation benchmarks to pledges. Processes
for accessing these funds must also be simplified.
It will be essential at COP27 to shift the focus from decisions to action. We do
not need more agreements on future progress. Rather, we must translate the
achievements of past summits into global cooperation on comprehensive climate
action. For example, initiatives to strengthen disaster risk management must
take a holistic approach, covering everything from resource mobilization and
early-warning systems to technology transfer and capacity-building.
A more holistic approach is also needed in Africa, which is not only highly
vulnerable to climate change, but also has considerable development needs. Such
an approach will demand a significant capital outlay, which cannot be financed
by borrowing without driving already debt-distressed African countries toward
crisis. Beyond fulfilling funding commitments, international actors must provide
a broader selection of financing options for all African countries, regardless
of their financial position. This effort should include the private sector. To
support implementation, African countries will need access to appropriate
technical support. The scale of the climate challenge cannot be overstated.
Confronting it will require a combination of mitigation, resilience-building and
adaptation, enabled by strategic partnerships, effective knowledge-sharing and
the delivery of adequate financial support and technical knowhow.
Africa is doing its part. The rest of the world must do the same — beginning at
COP27.
• Josefa Leonel Sacko is Commissioner for Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue
Economy, and Sustainable Environment at the African Union Commission.
• Kevin Kariuki is Vice President for Power, Energy, Climate, and Green Growth
at the African Development Bank.
• Ibrahima Cheikh Diong, UN Assistant Secretary-General, is Director General of
the African Risk Capacity Group.
Copyright: Project Syndicate
Defeating the will of the Iraqi people
Farouk Yousef/The Arab Weekly/October 18/ 2022
The recent Iraqi legislative elections were publicly falsified when Moqtada al-Sadr,
the winning leader, gave up his votes. He gave away the votes to his losing
rivals (and God knows if he had not literally sold them for a price).
Prior to that, his opponents only wished that Sadr would invite them to
participate in a unity government. They never dreamt they would end up clinching
all the power in their hands thanks to a move for which they can claim no
credit.
There was a comical turn of events that can only normally happen in the shape of
a military coup. Sadr was the author of this dubious achievement as he restored
his defeated opponents to power. He did so without consulting the people. At
least part of population went to the ballot box with the sole goal of
overhauling the political system which had pushed Iraq to the bottom of the
abyss and handed it over to Iran as spoils of war.
After the return of the Islamic Dawa' Party to power, the Iraqi people certainly
felt remorse, not because voters contributed to this farce but because they
believed there was reason to hope they could democratically regain control of
the fate of their country.
The Iraqi people have the right to protest and to clamour: “Where did our votes
go?”. But now however it is too late, as the game is over. Voters will have to
wait for the next election to say what they wanted to say. This does not mean
necessarily participating in the elections, but rather totally boycotting them
in order to bring down the regime that runs the ballot and controls its results,
regardless of which political front in the system really wins. All the political
forces that fielded candidates in the elections were mere fronts for a system
that somehow is always able to take matters back to square one. This is the
position in which Iraq has been mired for the last twenty years and there is no
chance that it will escape leave it. The Iraqi people will have no choice but to
reject the entire political process after what Sadr did, as he willingly
defeated the will of the people. Iraqis must begin a new chapter in their
history after twenty years of failure, which can no longer be denied nor blamed
on anybody else. The plot was not carried out in secret. Everything was in the
open. There were tangible facts, not just speculation.
And if the last elections were free and fair according to international
observers, now no one can speak of fraud, since the victors gave up their
electoral win willingly. The losers have the right to laugh at their opponents
who snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
The people will not blame Sadr for tampering with their fate and even for
betraying them. Rather, they will blame themselves for believing that one
faction of the regime will turn against the other. Sadr trusts the system and
does not trust the people. Therefore, all the acrobatic manoeuvres in which he
has indulged during the past year were a prelude to what happened recently, when
the curtain fell on the crisis with the victory of the losers. Sadr lost
nothing. He is part of the system. The only losers are the people. They have
lost their illusions about change, reform and fighting corruption. The corrupt
returned to power, which they lost only for a brief period of time. Sadr has
spent the time protesting. Today it is no longer expected that the protests will
regain their lustre after Sadr and allied forces dispersed the crowds and broke
their compass.Calling on the former protesters to resume their outcry is no
longer any use. Everything has changed and the regime has learned its lesson
well and is able today, under the cover of global silence, to break up any
protests before they erupt. The popular mobilisation factions will engage in
killing and kidnapping in secret. All this means that Sadr called off the
protests hoping to win new elections, which were supposed to fulfil the demands
of the protesters.
That was October Fool's Day.
Sadr gave away what he did not own to those who did not deserve to have it and
left the people bewildered in search of a way out of the crisis. His followers
made a grave mistake when they placed their trust in Sadr, who is the by-product
of the regime.
How many years will the Iraqi people endure misery and pain before their
independent will is finally free?
*Farouk Yousef is an Iraqi writer. His article was translated and adapted from
the Arabic. It was initially published by the London-based Al Arab newspaper.
Untangling the threads of Iran’s nuclear narrative
Ellen Laipson/The Arab Weekly/October 18/ 2022
It has been a busy few weeks for Iran-related headlines: domestic turmoil
triggered by the death of a Kurdish woman while in custody for allegedly
violating rules on wearing the hijab; negotiations to restore the 2015 nuclear
deal and the release of an elderly former UNICEF official after more than six
years.
All of which has Iran watchers wondering: will these separate events weave a new
narrative about Iran, its likely course and US responses in the coming months?
Iranian society, led by women and girls, has converged in most of Iran’s major
cities and towns to shout a new slogan: “Woman, Life, Liberty.” Unlike protests
of the past that were staged mainly by educated elites against election
irregularities, recent demonstrations over the death of Mahsa Amini appear to
have tapped into a wider demographic and have more universal appeal.
Young girls are mocking security forces, parading their veils on sticks and
showing a bravery and defiance unlike previous revolts against the cruelties of
the Islamic Republic.
Few are willing to speculate that this could be the end of Iran’s “revolution”
and the beginning of real political change. The geriatric leaders in Tehran have
not offered a word of empathy for the protesters and the security forces they
command have killed several dozen and imprisoned thousands.
It is equally impossible to predict how these protests will play out. The
passion of protesters could fade, or the regime might offer concessions that
would undercut momentum on the street. But it is also conceivable that a deeper
unravelling will occur, given the other stresses on Iran, from sanctions and
international isolation to diminished opportunities for millions of young
people.
At the same time, Iran’s leaders face some hard choices regarding the nuclear
deal, officially the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). There has been
a slow dance between the US and Iran, orchestrated by the other parties to the
agreement and officials of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna. The
two sides have exchanged proposals and as recently as August, some believed an
agreement was within reach.
Those hopes were dashed when Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi addressed the
United Nations General Assembly in late September, accusing the West of nuclear
hypocrisy.
Diplomats close to the negotiations now see Iran reintroducing issues that had
been resolved, such as the timing of an IAEA safeguards investigation, perhaps
acting to delay any decision until after the US midterm elections in November.
The mood on the US side, especially among those who prefer an imperfect
agreement to the uncertainties of no agreement, has darkened.
Optimists might hope that these threads will come together to weave a new
narrative for Iran’s leaders, such as compromising on the JCPOA to improve their
image and credibility. Yet there is little evidence from Iranian history that
such logic will prevail.
To the contrary, the most likely impact of the veil protests is to make the
regime more rigid. The regime is always prone to the belief that foreign powers
are causing Iran harm. Because Western countries, including the US, are doing
what they can to support the protests, one can assume that any spillover to
JCPOA will be negative, not positive.
The final event impacting US-Iran relations is the recent release of an
Iranian-American held by the regime since 2015. Baquer Namazi, the 86-year-old
former UNICEF official, has travelled to the United Arab Emirates for medical
treatment. Iran had previously dismissed charges against him but had not allowed
him to leave the country.
His 51-year-old son, Siamik Namazi, had been given a temporary release from Evin
Prison but was forced to return this week.
The US has acknowledged indirect talks with Iran over Baquer Namazi's release,
but details are scarce. It is possible that he was released out of fear for his
medical condition, not as part of a swap or negotiation.
In July, US President Joe Biden signed an executive order about
unlawfully-detained Americans, formalising the diplomatic process for seeking
release of US citizens wrongfully held. It permits more penalties for
hostage-holders and allows the US government to share more information with the
families of detainees imprisoned by non-state actors or by governments.
In other words, the US is keeping hostage release efforts separate from the give
and take of other ongoing work, such as the JCPOA. So, while it is
understandable to think that there must be a master plan that brings all these
discrete events together in Washington’s Iran policy, the truth is that the US
government is trying to do the opposite.
In 1989, George H W Bush signalled to Iran that “goodwill begets goodwill,” the
notion that progress in one arena would spill over to other issues in dispute.
But coming on the heels of the Reagan administration’s Iran Contra scandal in
the 1980s, which included a scheme to swap arms with Iran for hostages in
Lebanon, Bush’s interconnected policy approach eventually fell flat.
Similarly, it is best to think of this current moment as a messy mix of
challenges, some bringing heightened attention to Iran’s human rights conditions
and others in the multifaceted security arena, from Iran’s ongoing nuclear
activities to its activism across the region from Syria and Iraq to Yemen. While
it is tempting to weave a connected narrative on US-Iran relations, history is
rarely so neat.
*Ellen Laipson is president emeritus and a distinguished fellow at the Stimson
Centre, a non-partisan think-tank in Washington. This article was previously
published by World Politics Review.
خالد أبوطعمة من موقع معهد كايتسنون: العرب يرون أن بايدين يقوي من وقاحة ومخططات
إيران الإرهابية والتوسعية ويضر بمصالح الولايات المتحدة
Arabs: Biden Emboldening Iran, Harming US Interests
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/October 18/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/112800/112800/
“[T]his relationship [between the US and Saudi Arabia] should be based on
reciprocity. If Washington is looking for its own interests, as with the Iran
nuclear deal or the cancellation of the [Iranian-backed] Houthi group’s
designation as a terrorist group, Saudi Arabia also has the right to seek its
own interests….” — Rami Al-Khalifa, Syrian author, Elaph, October 12, 2022.
“Biden was the one who decided to pursue a hostile policy towards the [Arab]
allies. He and his team were the ones who gave in to America’s enemies and went
looking for nuclear agreements that are fraught with flaws and harm to many of
America’s friends.” — Abdul Jalil Al-Saeid, Syrian author, Al-Ain, October 11,
2022.
The Arab League, for its part, condemned the Biden administration for waging a
“negative campaign” against Saudi Arabia.
These reactions from the Arab countries indicate that the Arabs no longer see
the US as a strategic ally or even as a friend. This is excellent news for the
mullahs in Iran and their terrorist proxies in the Middle East, including
Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Houthis in Yemen.
“In retrospect, I think that was a mistake,” Obama said, referring his total
failure to help the Iranian protestors in 2009, when he sided with the regime….
He ended by noting that it was important “to affirm what they do and I hope that
it brings about more space for the kind of civic conversation that over time can
take the country down a better path.”
“Civic conversation”? With Iran’s savage regime? That’s it?
White House spokesman John Kirby gave the game away. “The president ,” he said,
“still believes that a diplomatic way forward is the best way forward….”
It is not a secret, however, that a diplomatic way without a credible military
threat to back it up is useless. Even soft-power advocate Joseph Nye, former
Dean of the Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, had to concede that, “to be
realistic, soft power is never going to replace hard power.”
The Biden administration appears to be waiting until after the November mid-term
elections, when Congress will be in recess for its Christmas holiday and
therefore unable to block the deal.
So far, 50 “deeply concerned” members of Congress, mostly Democrats from Biden’s
own party, have sent Biden a letter effectively opposing the deal.
The Saudis and their allies in the Gulf appear to be wondering why Biden is
threatening them with “consequences” simply for trying to protect themselves
from soon being annihilated by Iran, especially as it was the US that introduced
the mortal threat against the Saudis — by granting Iran nuclear weapons with the
2015 JCPOA nuclear deal — in the first place.
In [2015]… Obama revealingly let slip: “Even before taking office, I made clear
that Iran would not be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon on my watch…”
[Emphasis added.]
The new Iran deal, according to reports, also does not prevent Iran from having
nuclear weapons capability, and would merely postpone the same disaster until
after the Biden administration’s “watch.”
“[H]ow can we in good conscience,” Obama said in his July 2015 statement,
“justify war before we’ve tested a diplomatic agreement that achieves our
objectives; that has been agreed to by Iran.”
This diplomatic agreement has now been tested. It failed. That is why this or
any agreement with Iran should be allowed to die a dignified death, especially
during Congress’s Christmas recess.
US President Joe Biden has threatened that “there will be consequences” for US
relations with Saudi Arabia after OPEC+ announced that it would cut its oil
production target. Reactions from Arab countries indicate that the Arabs no
longer see the US as a strategic ally or even as a friend. This is excellent
news for the mullahs in Iran and their terrorist proxies in the Middle East.
The Saudis and other Arabs who were once considered America’s major allies in
the Middle East have resumed their criticism of the Biden administration,
accusing it of harming US interests and alienating Washington’s friends.
The criticism came after US President Joe Biden threatened that “there will be
consequences” for US relations with Saudi Arabia after OPEC+ announced that it
would cut its oil production target. It also came after White House press
secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said a policy review of US-Saudi relations would be
conducted in response to the OOEC+ announcement.
The Saudis did not take the statements emanating from Washington lightly.
Responding to the statements, Saudi Arabia affirmed its “rejection of any
dictates, actions or efforts to distort its noble objectives to protect the
global economy from oil market volatility.”
The Kingdom expressed its total rejection of statements that are not based on
facts, but are meant to portray the OPEC+ decision out of its purely economic
context.
“This decision was taken unanimously by all member states of the OPEC+ group,”
read a statement issued by the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
“The Kingdom affirms that the outcomes of the OPEC+ meetings are adopted through
consensus among member states, and that they are not based on the unilateral
decision by a single country. These outcomes are based purely on economic
considerations that take into account maintaining balance of supply and demand
in the oil markets, as well as aim to limit volatility that does not serve the
interests of consumers and producers, as has been always the case within OPEC
+.”
While the Saudi statement may sound relatively toned down, a number of Saudi and
Arab writers and political analysts have been less diplomatic in their criticism
of the Biden administration. They say that Biden seems to care more about
winning the upcoming midterm elections and getting re-elected than safeguarding
America’s interests and relations in the Middle East.
“I can’t understand President Biden’s behavior and policy,” commented Saudi
writer Abdo Khal.
“He is at odds with his country’s interests and is complicating many issues,
specifically regarding his attitude towards Saudi Arabia. He has established a
policy that is based on hostility towards Saudi Arabia.”
Khal said that he cannot understand why the Biden administration is so
determined to undermine US-Saudi relations.
“If Biden has ordered the US National Security Council to conduct a
re-evaluation of the relationship between the two sides, Saudi Arabia is also
able to evaluate is relationship with the US. This is a legitimate right.”
Saudi columnist Mashari Althaydi denounced the Biden administration over its
“threats and intimidation.”
Althaydi pointed out that he could not understand why the Biden administration
has singled out Saudi Arabia for criticism when the OPEC+ decision was taken not
only by the Kingdom, but all members of the group.
“A group of countries (OPEC+) made a decision that serves the interests of the
oil commodity, the pillars of this market, the producer and the consumer… Biden
and his men are angry with Saudi Arabia alone, and not the rest of the
countries, even though it was a collective decision. It’s true that Saudi Arabia
is the most important country in this organization, but it is a collective
decision. We remember that there was a previous accumulation of tension against
Saudi Arabia. This tension was connected to [then US President] Obama’s
ideological illusions.”
Althaydi added that the Saudi government’s response to the statements coming
from Washington was “decisive against the nonsense of the Obama-Biden campaign.”
“The smart and strong thing to do is to identify the source of the anger of
Biden and his team. It’s a temporary opportunistic electoral political anger. I
think that the Americans should get used to this clear speech with Washington.
This is not at all a hostile speech nor a revolt against the historical
strategic interests between Saudi Arabia and America. It’s just a reminder that
Saudi Arabia is not a Banana Republic.”
Syrian writer Rami Al-Khalifa described the Biden administration’s statements as
hysterical and childish. The US, he said, “has turned into a teenage child
showing irrational reasons for condemning the OPEC+ group, especially Saudi
Arabia.”
“Washington does not want to understand Saudi logic and is disrupting the
language of reason in dealing with Saudi interests. The American administration
believes that the OPEC countries, led by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, should
work to achieve American interests regardless of their own interests.”
Al-Khalifa noted that the Biden administration wants to increase production to
reduce oil prices on the eve of the midterm elections:
“The Saudi logic is very simple and is based on three basic pillars: Saudi
Arabia is not part of the Western-Russian conflict, and it sees this war as
having a negative effect on security and stability… Saudi Arabia believes that
no one has the right to demand that it sacrifice its interests to serve the
interests of other parties. Saudi Arabia understands the nature of its
relationship with the US, which is a strategic relationship. But at the same
time, this relationship should be based on reciprocity. If Washington is looking
for its own interests, as with the Iran nuclear deal or the cancellation of the
[Iranian-backed] Houthi group’s designation as a terrorist group, Saudi Arabia
also has the right to seek its own interests through a network of relationships
with various parties. The relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia is a
strategic relationship that must be based on the mutual understanding of each
other’s interests and that Washington should stop acting like an arrogant
teenager who only sees himself and his own interests and wants others to work
for it regardless of their interests.”
Another Syrian writer, Abdul Jalil Al-Saeid, wrote that the anti-Saudi
statements of the Biden administration were aimed at “pleasing his [Biden’s]
voters just as he did during his presidential election campaign.”
Al-Saeid pointed out that US Senator Ted Cruz summarized many of the recent
developments in America by saying that the cause of the financial crisis in the
US is Biden’s destructive policies.
“Biden was the one who decided to pursue a hostile policy towards the [Arab]
allies. He and his team were the ones who gave in to America’s enemies and went
looking for nuclear agreements that are fraught with flaws and harm to many of
America’s friends.”
In yet another sign of the damage caused by the Biden administration’s hostility
towards Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the Arab League
have come out in support of the Kingdom.
GCC Secretary-General Nayef Al-Hajraf said that the Biden administration’s
criticism of Saudi Arabia was “lacking in facts.” The Arab League, for its part,
condemned the Biden administration for waging a “negative campaign” against
Saudi Arabia.
These reactions from the Arab countries indicate that the Arabs no longer see
the US as a strategic ally or even as a friend. This is excellent news for the
mullahs in Iran and their terrorist proxies in the Middle East, including
Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Houthis in Yemen. Under the
current circumstances, it seems clear that the damage done to America’s
relations with the Arab world is irreparable, at least during the Biden
administration.
If the Biden administration is so distressed, as it claims, about the murder of
the journalist Jamal Khashoggi, why has there never been so much as a murmur of
compliant about Qatar’s three-week torture of Marc Bennett, a British citizen,
at the hands of its “secret police” and his subsequent death by hanging — said
by the coroner to be not a suicide — on Christmas Day 2019? Bennett had been
detained by Qatar for nine months on dubious charges shortly after resigning
from a senior position at Qatari Airways. Intriguingly, the British Foreign
Office closed the case in 2021, “just one week after” Britain’s current Prime
Minister Liz Truss was appointed foreign minister.
While it goes without saying, it is worth stating plainly: America’s interests
in the Middle East will also be affected as its Arab allies become increasingly
disillusioned with the deeds and statements of the current administration, and
its continuing inability to see the enormous existential threat it is creating
for the Arab world by zealously trying grant nuclear capability and a trillion
dollars to an Iranian regime that even its own people can no longer stomach.
Iran, with its Shiite regime, appears implacably determined to destroy its Sunni
oil competitors in the Middle East (here and here); “the Little Satan” Israel ,
and “the Great Satan” the United States through its neglected underbelly in
Venezuela, Cuba and increasingly much of South America.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken and former President Barack Obama both made
statements as if supporting anti-regime protestors in Iran, but both seemed
transparently feeble, false-front, Potemkin statements.
“I think we are seeing something that is quite remarkable throughout the
country,” Blinken said, failing to offer any practical assistance.
“‘In retrospect, I think that was a mistake,” Obama said, referring his total
failure as president to help the Iranian protestors in 2009, while he sided with
the regime. “Every time we see a flash, a glimmer of hope, of people longing for
freedom, I think we have to point it out,” he said, equally unhelpfully.
Obama ended by noting that it was important “to affirm what they do and I hope
that it brings about more space for the kind of civic conversation that over
time can take the country down a better path.”
“Civic conversation”? With Iran’s savage regime? That’s it?
It was White House spokesman John Kirby who gave the game away. “The president
,” he said”, “still believes that a diplomatic way forward is the best way
forward….”
It is not a secret, however, that a diplomatic way without a credible military
threat to back it up is useless. Even soft-power advocate Joseph Nye, former
dean of the Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, had to concede that, “to be
realistic, soft power is never going to replace hard power.”
The Biden administration appears to be waiting until after the November mid-term
elections, when Congress will be in recess for its Christmas holiday and
therefore unable to block the deal.
So far, 50 “deeply concerned” members of Congress, mostly Democrats from Biden’s
own party, have sent Biden a letter effectively opposing the deal.
The Saudis and their allies in the Gulf appear to be wondering why Biden is
threatening them with “consequences” simply for trying to protect themselves
from soon being annihilated by Iran, especially as it was the US that introduced
the mortal threat against the Saudis — by granting Iran nuclear weapons with the
2015 JCPOA nuclear deal — in the first place.
In August of 2015, Obama announced:
“After two years of negotiations, we have achieved a detailed arrangement that
permanently prohibits Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon…. Iran will also not
be able to acquire the enriched uranium that could be used for a bomb…. Well,
here’s the truth: Inspectors will be allowed daily access to Iran’s key nuclear
sites. If there is a reason for inspecting a suspicious, undeclared site
anywhere in Iran, inspectors will get that access, even if Iran objects…. Let me
repeat: The prohibition on Iran having a nuclear weapon is permanent. The ban on
weapons-related research is permanent. Inspections are permanent.”
In the same address, however, Obama revealingly let slip:
“Even before taking office, I made clear that Iran would not be allowed to
acquire a nuclear weapon on my watch….[Emphasis added.]
Although Obama claimed that his deal “permanently prohibits Iran from obtaining
a nuclear weapon,” his statement as immediately exposed as a falsehood by the
deal’s “sunset clause,” assuring Iran that after only fifteen years, it could
have all the nuclear weapons it wanted – with no prohibition on the missiles to
deliver them.
Obama had told the world, in another official statement a few weeks earlier,
that “Iran is permanently prohibited from pursuing a nuclear weapon under the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.”
The world can see how much good that did.
The new Iran deal, according to reports, also does not prevent Iran from having
nuclear weapons capability, and would merely postpone the same disaster until
after the Biden administration’s “watch.”
“[H]ow can we in good conscience,” Obama said in his July 2015 statement,
“justify war before we’ve tested a diplomatic agreement that achieves our
objectives; that has been agreed to by Iran.”
This diplomatic agreement has now been tested. It failed. That is why this or
any agreement with Iran should be allowed to die a dignified death, especially
during Congress’s Christmas recess.
*Khaled Abu Toameh is an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem.
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