English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 18/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
The harvest is plentiful, but the labourers are few; therefore ask the Lord of the harvest to send out labourers into his harvest
Luke 10/01-07: "After this the Lord appointed seventy others and sent them on ahead of him in pairs to every town and place where he himself intended to go. He said to them, ‘The harvest is plentiful, but the labourers are few; therefore ask the Lord of the harvest to send out labourers into his harvest. Go on your way. See, I am sending you out like lambs into the midst of wolves. Carry no purse, no bag, no sandals; and greet no one on the road. Whatever house you enter, first say, "Peace to this house!" And if anyone is there who shares in peace, your peace will rest on that person; but if not, it will return to you. Remain in the same house, eating and drinking whatever they provide, for the labourer deserves to be paid. Do not move about from house to house.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 17-18.2022
Lebanese-Israeli Maritime Agreement to Be Signed within 10 Days
Swiss embassy in Lebanon cancels dinner for political representatives amid row
Swiss embassy postpones dinner after political uproar in Lebanon
Bukhari meets Aoun, says Taef has protected Lebanon
Bassil from Ain el-Tineh: Berri showed 'openness to dialogue'
Lebanese pound hits new record low
LF say won't attend Swiss Embassy dinner, 'dialogue with Hezbollah useless'
Report: Aoun says 'no need' for new govt. as US, Hezbollah push for formation
Al-Rahi lauds Aoun over demarcation, stresses 'unity of decision'
Israel-Lebanon Maritime Deal Elicits Dueling Arguments
A new reality means Israel will have to strike Lebanon/Jacob Nagel/Israel Hayom/October 17/2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 17-18.2022
COPTIC SOLIDARITY HOSTS DC EVENT, THE INDIGENOUS COPTS: MARGINALIZED & EXCLUDED IN THEIR HOMELAND
Iran prison fire death toll rises to 8 inmates killed
Satellite Photos Show Damage at Iran Prison amid Protests
EU Ministers Warn Iran of New Sanctions over Ukraine War
Washington ‘Deeply Disappointed’ by Palestinian President’s Meeting with Putin
US accuses Iran of lying over use of its drones in Ukraine
Ukraine Nuclear Plant Disconnected from Power Grid after Russian Shelling
UN: Ukraine War Pushes 4 Million Children into Poverty
Ukraine: Russian 'Kamikaze Drones' Strike Kyiv
Russia Says It Launched Major Attack on Ukrainian Infrastructure
Egypt Seeks to Become Regional Hub to Produce, Exchange Renewable Energy
Envoy says UN to push for nationwide cease-fire in Syria
Iraq's new president calls for speedy government formation
UN Says Renewed Tribal Clashes Kill 13 in Southern Sudan
UK axes ‘almost all’ budget tax cuts in humiliation for Truss

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 17-18.2022
China Can Sneak-Attack Taiwan/Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/October 17, 2022
Oil and Elections… Have US Actions Backfired?/Salman Al-Dossary/Asharq Al-Awsat/October, 17/2022
Why Iran’s ethnic minorities are bearing the brunt of violent regime crackdown on protests/Lucas Chapman/Arab News/October 17/2022
A new era of paramilitary supremacy in Iraq/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/October 17/2022
Ongoing Iran protests are the most dangerous in regime’s history/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/October 17, 2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 17-18.2022
Lebanese-Israeli Maritime Agreement to Be Signed within 10 Days
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 17 October, 2022
Lebanon’s deputy parliament Speaker Elias Bou Saab revealed the expected date for the completion of the demarcation settlement with Israel and the mechanism by which the agreement will be signed. “The points that the United States has included in a letter will be sent to both Lebanon and Israel. Lebanon will respond by agreeing in writing to the message, and Israel will respond in the same way,” Bou Saab said in a television interview to be aired on Monday. He added that the delivery of letters was likely to take place on Oct. 26 or 27 through the United Nations at Lebanon’s border area of Naqoura. Asked about the Lebanese party that will sign the agreement letter, Bou Saab replied: “This decision is taken by the President of the Republic, who will choose the team that will head to Naqoura.” The deputy speaker noted that the alternative to this agreement “could have been war or escalation.”He said he believed that former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s threat to annul the agreement if he wins elections in November “is electoral talk,” adding that any breach would put US credibility at stake. “The agreement also guarantees that there will be no provocation on the border, neither by [Hezbollah] nor any other party,” Bou Saab stressed. Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah had praised the US proposal, even before Aoun announced Lebanon’s official approval of it. However, the head of Hezbollah’s Loyalty to the Resistance parliamentary bloc, MP Mohammad Raad, said on Sunday: “We still don’t trust this enemy and we will never do; that’s why, we have not yet announced our position.” Meanwhile, Hezbollah deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem described the demarcation agreement as a “historic achievement.” “The resistance had a great impact on securing the maritime oil and gas rights for Lebanon; it will be a historic achievement when the signing takes place... This matter would not have happened without the solidarity between the state and the resistance…” Qassem said.

Swiss embassy in Lebanon cancels dinner for political representatives amid row
Najia Houssari/Arab News/October 18/2022
BEIRUT: The Swiss embassy in Lebanon has postponed an informal dinner that was scheduled to take place at the ambassador’s residence at the invitation of the Switzerland-based Center for Humanitarian Dialogue.
The event aimed to brainstorm with “Lebanese as well as regional and international actors” but was postponed following controversy and disapproval among political parties opposing Hezbollah and its allies. It was seen as an attempt prior to the end of President Michel Aoun’s term to dismantle the Taif Agreement and establish a tripartite governance, allowing the Shiite sect to be an influencing partner in governance.
Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari reiterated “the national pact principles contained in the Taif Agreement, which constitutes a main foundation that protected Lebanon and ensured its stability.”
Independent MP Abdel Rahman Bizri said that “any modification to and reconsideration of the Taif Agreement are rejected and dubious, and a proof that some people want to complicate things instead of facilitating the awaited political solutions.”
Bizri said that “the Taif Agreement is a national pact that was concluded as a result of the great sacrifices and hardships faced by the Lebanese.”He added that the problem “we face today is the result of the practices of the ruling class and top officials who have managed the country for decades.”
A number of Lebanese MPs representing parliamentary blocs were invited to dinner on Tuesday at the residence of the Swiss Ambassador to Lebanon Marion Weichelt.
The event was planned as a platform to discuss a number of issues before later talks in Geneva on Lebanon.
It had been reported that the event would bring together representatives of Hezbollah, the Amal Movement, the Free Patriotic Movement, the Lebanese Forces, the Progressive Socialist Party and the Forces of Change.
However, the Lebanese Forces asked its representative not to attend the dinner. Independent MPs and the Forces of Change refused to be represented.
MP Waddah Sadek told Arab News: “This project has been in preparation for three months. If we take a closer look at the people working on it, we see that some of them are close to Hezbollah, noting that Hezbollah has been planning a campaign against the Taif Agreement a while ago.
“If we connect the dots we realize that this dinner, and the invitation to the Geneva conference, are not unprompted and a European cover has been provided for this meeting.
“If the point of the meeting was to hold discussions and not repeal the Taif Agreement, why should it be held at the embassy and later abroad?
“Moreover, the Forces of Change MPs did not know about this meeting. We only heard about it from the media and the invited MP did not tell us anything.”
Sadek said that the constitution “is my main reference and I am against any international or local conference amid the de facto weapon. No one represents me in any meeting and at any embassy and I refuse to discuss this matter.”
MP Melhem Riachi, of the Lebanese Forces, said he will not be attending the meeting without clarification of its background.
Bukhari visited Aoun and Lebanese Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri on Monday. He reiterated the Kingdom’s support for Lebanon’s unity and people, based on national principles in the Taif Agreement. He also stressed the importance of carrying out the constitutional elections on time.
He wrote on Twitter: “The Taif agreement is a binding contract to strengthen the foundations of a pluralistic Lebanon. The alternative is not another pact but the disintegration of coexistence, the disappearance of the united nation and its replacement by entities that do not resemble the Lebanese message.”
The Swiss Embassy said that Switzerland had been actively engaged in Lebanon for many years.
It added: “Over the last couple of months, Switzerland, in collaboration with the Swiss-based organization Center for Humanitarian Dialogue, was in contact with the full spectrum of political Lebanese as well as regional and international actors to prepare for consultative discussions, not for a dialogue conference.
“It is Switzerland’s tradition to offer good offices when asked to do so. The planned discussions are the result of previous consultations with the full spectrum of political Lebanese as well as regional and international actors, and in full respect of the Taif Agreement and the Lebanese constitution.”

Swiss embassy postpones dinner after political uproar in Lebanon
Naharnet/October 17, 2022
The Swiss embassy in Lebanon on Monday announced the postponement of a dinner that was supposed to bring together Lebanon’s main political parties, after unconfirmed media reports about the event stirred political controversy in the country. “Switzerland has been actively engaged in Lebanon for many years including in conflict prevention and peace promotion. Over the last couple of months, Switzerland, in collaboration with the Swiss based organization Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue, was in contact with the full spectrum of political Lebanese as well as regional and international actors to prepare for consultative discussions, not for a dialogue conference,” the embassy said in a statement. “It is Switzerland’s tradition to offer good offices when asked to do so. The planned discussions are the result of previous consultations with the full spectrum of political Lebanese as well as regional and international actors, and in full respect of the Taef agreement and the Lebanese constitution,” it added. It also said that “the informal dinner that was supposed to take place this Tuesday at the Swiss residence aimed to further brainstorm with various Lebanese political actors,” adding that “the names circulated in the media do not reflect the actual invitees.” “The dinner has been postponed to a later date,” the embassy added. Al-Jadeed TV had reported Sunday that the dinner banquet would bring the Swiss ambassador together with representatives of Hezbollah, the Amal Movement, the Free Patriotic Movement, the Lebanese Forces, the Progressive Socialist Party and MPs from the Change forces. “The meeting is aimed at preparing for a dialogue conference that will be held in Geneva,” the TV network added, noting that the conference would involve several “official sessions.”
MTV for its part identified the Lebanese representatives who would take part in the dinner as MP Ali Fayyad of Hezbollah, MP Melhem Riachi of the Lebanese Forces, MP Alain Aoun of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Wael Abu Faour of the Progressive Socialist Party, MP Ibrahim Mneimneh of the Change bloc and Speaker Nabih Berri’s adviser Ali Hamdan. The LF later on Sunday announced that it asked Riachi not to attend the dinner “after it was depicted in the media, whether rightfully or wrongly, as a dialogue conference that is being prepared for.” “The presidential election must take place within the constitutional timeframe, and it is unacceptable for any reason and under any slogan or excuse to deviate the discussion towards other topics,” the LF added. It also said that “the experience has shown that Hezbollah does not intend to review its stances and discuss the benefit of its weapons.”
MP Waddah al-Sadeh of the Change bloc meanwhile stressed that the Taef Accord is his "political reference," emphasizing that he is "against any international or local conference in the presence of the de facto weapons" and noting that no one represents him at the embassy's reported meeting. "The stances of some colleagues on the Taef Accord and blaming it for the financial collapse might threaten the unity of the bloc," al-Sadek warned. Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari for his part posted Sunday a tweet that apparently came in response to the media reports about the conference.
“The National Reconciliation Accord (Taef Accord) is a binding contract for laying the foundations of the pluralistic Lebanese entity, and the alternative to it will not be another accord but a dismantling of the bonds of coexistence and the demise of the unified country, which will be replaced by entities that do not resemble Lebanon the message,” Bukhari said in his tweet. On Monday, Bukhari held meetings with President Michel Aoun and Speaker Nabih Berri. Lebanese Democratic Party leader Talal Arslan for his part said the invitation to the Swiss meeting was "born dead."
"Such efforts that lack vision and objectives cannot succeed," he said. Arab Tawhid Party leader Wiam Wahhab meanwhile said: "What the Swiss embassy is doing is inviting a number of parties to a folkloric dialogue in which the majority of participants are corrupt parties that contributed to destroying the country.""It is doomed to fail," he added.

Bukhari meets Aoun, says Taef has protected Lebanon
Naharnet/October 17/2022
Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari held talks Monday with President Michel Aoun at the Baabda Palace. The Presidency said the talks tackled the Lebanese-Saudi relations and means to develop them in the various fields, as well as the kingdom’s support for Lebanon, especially at the social and humanitarian levels, in addition to the general situations and latest developments. “Ambassador Bukhari reiterated the kingdom’s keenness on Lebanon’s unity, people and Arab depth, based on the national and National Pact principles that were stipulated by the Taef Accord, which represented a main pillar that protected Lebanon and secured its stability,” the Presidency added. “He also stressed the importance of finalizing the constitutional junctures on time,” the Presidency said. Bukhari had on Sunday posted a tweet that apparently came in response to media reports about an upcoming meeting at the Swiss embassy in Beirut and a Lebanese dialogue conference in Geneva. “The National Reconciliation Accord (Taef Accord) is a binding contract for laying the foundations of the pluralistic Lebanese entity, and the alternative to it will not be another accord but a dismantling of the bonds of coexistence and the demise of the unified country, which will be replaced by entities that do not resemble Lebanon the message,” Bukhari said in his tweet.

Bassil from Ain el-Tineh: Berri showed 'openness to dialogue'
Naharnet/October 17/2022
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil arrived Monday in Ain el-Tineh, with a delegation from the Strong Lebanon bloc, to meet with Speaker Nabih Berri, in the presence of some of Amal's MPs. "Electing a new president is only possible through dialogue," Bassil said after the meeting. "The dialogue does not mean we no longer have political differences," he added. In a press conference from Ain el-Tineh, Bassil went on to say that Berri showed positivity towards dialogue and willingness not only to discuss a program for the next president, but also to discuss candidates' names. The Strong Lebanon bloc had started its "presidential paper" tour earlier on Monday with a meeting between a delegation from the bloc and another from the Democratic Gathering bloc. Democratic Gathering bloc leader Taymour Jumblat and MPs Marwan Hamadeh and Hadi Abou el-Hassan attended the meeting in Clemenceau. After the meeting, Abou el-Hassan said that the two delegations had a transparent and deep conversation over the presidential paper. "We have some points in common, but others need further discussion," the lawmaker went on to say, stressing the importance of dialogue in Lebanon. He added that his bloc is still supporting MP Michel Moawad as a candidate for presidency and that the two delegations did not go through names of candidates but rather discussed a program.

Lebanese pound hits new record low
Agence France Presse/October 17/2022
The Lebanese pound's market value hit a record low against the dollar Monday, as the cash-strapped country plunges further into financial and political turmoil three years after its economy collapsed. The pound sank further as the country, led by a caretaker government, heads into presidential elections next month with a divided parliament that has repeatedly failed to reach a consensus on a new leader. The pound's market value fell to over 40,000 to the greenback, according to money exchangers who spoke to AFP, after it had stabilized at around 38,000 for weeks.The Lebanese pound has been officially pegged at 1,507 to the dollar since 1997, a rate that has not reflected its true market value for years as the currency has been in free fall, with multiple parallel exchange rates coexisting. After years of economic mismanagement and endemic corruption, Lebanon sunk into an unprecedented financial crisis in late 2019, dubbed by the World Bank as one of the world's worst in recent history. The crisis has pushed most Lebanese into poverty, while talks with the International Monetary Fund to unlock billions of dollars in loans have stalled as Lebanese leaders have been unable to enact most reforms demanded by the lender and donor countries. "If the pound continues to collapse, it is quite simply because there is no global reform plan," said analyst Michel Fayad. The new low also coincides with weeks of partial bank closures after a wave of exasperated depositors staged hold-ups at their own banks to demand access to their savings, frozen for years.

LF say won't attend Swiss Embassy dinner, 'dialogue with Hezbollah useless'
Naharnet/October 17/2022
The Lebanese Forces party has said that it will not attend a dinner banquet that will be held Tuesday between Swiss Ambassador to Lebanon Marion Weichelt Krupski and representatives of the Lebanese political parties. Al-Jadeed TV had reported that the meeting is aimed at preparing for a dialogue conference that will be held in Geneva, noting that the conference will involve several “official sessions.”"We are not considering a national dialogue at the moment, but we are rather focused on the presidential election," the LF said in a statement. The statement added that a dialogue with Hezbollah is "useless" as long as the latter insists on infringing the constitution and the state. The statement went on to say that the LF would only participate in a dialogue that would not divert attention away from a juncture of major importance like the presidential election and that "any dialogue must be preceded by a worksheet that abides by the constitution, the Taif Agreement, and the Lebanese principles."

Report: Aoun says 'no need' for new govt. as US, Hezbollah push for formation
Naharnet/October 17/2022
President Michel Aoun would rather focus on the upcoming presidential election, as he thinks there is no more need to form a government only days before the end of his presidential term, sources said. A political source told al-Joumhouria newspaper, in remarks published Monday, that Aoun has shared his thoughts over the matter with French President Emmanuel Macron in their latest phone call, days ago. Meanwhile, Washington and Hezbollah are pushing toward forming a new government, informed political sources told the daily.For Washington, a new government would protect the U.S. brokered maritime border deal between Lebanon and Israel, the sources said, adding that Hezbollah, for its part, wants to prevent a highly probable controversy over the powers of the caretaker government in case of a presidential void.

Al-Rahi lauds Aoun over demarcation, stresses 'unity of decision'
Naharnet/October 17/2022
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Monday saluted President Michel Aoun for “his persistence in the sea border demarcation process between Lebanon and Israel” and for “his keenness on the unity of decision with each of the parliament speaker and the prime minister.” “We hope the legal demarcation will be implemented and that this unity of decision would also entail the election of a new president before October 31,” the patriarch added, during a visit to Cairo. “Cooperation among all parties is necessary, but not at the expense of sovereignty, and it is a common positive responsibility that should not reach the extent of vetoes or obstruction,” al-Rahi went on to say.

Israel-Lebanon Maritime Deal Elicits Dueling Arguments
FDD/October 17/2022
Latest Developments
Israel and Lebanon reached a maritime deal on Tuesday, eliciting robust debate over its prospective merits, flaws, and implications for regional security. Supporters of the agreement argue that it averts a potential war between Israel and Hezbollah, weakens Hezbollah, strengthens Israel’s economy, and constitutes de facto Lebanese recognition of Israel. Critics contend that the accord by definition is an act of appeasement that empowers Hezbollah, cementing its partnership with France under a U.S. umbrella and forcing Israel to concede to all of the group’s demands under the threat of force.
Expert Analysis
“Negotiating with Israel over anything is anathema to Hezbollah and the Islamist regime in Iran. Lebanon’s economic despair, however, has forced Hezbollah to bend and strike a deal with Israel that the militia tried to spin as an Israeli concession under threat of war.” – Hussain Abdul-Hussain, FDD Research Fellow
“The U.S. administration made a point to publicly force Israel to capitulate entirely to Hezbollah in this deal, which Team Biden has framed as part of its agenda to prop up and ‘integrate’ Iran’s ‘equities’ in the region. On its own terms, this deal provides American protection to Hezbollah’s effective partnership with France while eroding Israeli deterrence, even as threats to Jerusalem’s security continue to grow in Lebanon.” – Tony Badran, FDD Research Fellow
Supporters of the Deal Say It Deescalates Tensions with Lebanon
Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid said on Wednesday that the maritime deal “does not preserve our security, it enhances our security.” In a Twitter post, he stated the agreement will “minimize Lebanon’s dependence on Hezbollah and Iran” and benefit the economies of both countries. According to Mossad chief David Barnea, Hezbollah supports the deal only to boost its standing among the Lebanese people. “Hezbollah did not want an agreement with Israel, but realized that in light of the internal political crisis in Lebanon, it has an opportunity to gain points in public opinion,” said Barnea.
Critics Lambast Deal as Threat to Israeli Security
Opponents of the deal maintain these assertions do not hold up to factual scrutiny, arguing that the deal plainly benefits Hezbollah financially, militarily, and strategically. Hezbollah not only managed the negotiations, it also launched drones and threatened to further attack the Karish gas field — even though it lies entirely within Israel’s borders — if Israel failed to concede to the group’s demands. Former Israeli Minister of Energy Yuval Steinitz thus described the deal as “by definition a surrender to blackmail.” Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah praised the agreement on Tuesday by claiming that “Israel is more afraid of war than the Lebanese.” Critics also note that claims of Lebanon’s “dependence” on Iran are imprecise. Iran already dominates the country through its control of Hezbollah, which effectively runs the Lebanese government.

A new reality means Israel will have to strike Lebanon
Jacob Nagel/Israel Hayom/October 17/2022
Recent examples of US weapon shipments to Ukraine demonstrate the problem that Israel could face if Iran and its allies lay their hands on them.
Iran and the US have been moving along two parallel lines when it comes to restoring the 2015 nuclear deal. Despite President Joe Biden’s willingness to make major concessions through his envoy Rob Malley, things are up in the air when it comes to the prospects of finalizing a revived agreement.
Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine continues to shed blood. The ongoing combat has implications that should worry Israel and require immediate address. The chief concern is that Russia and Iran are increasingly moving into each other’s orbit. This means that reality has changed not just in Syria and Lebanon, but also in Russia and Iran.
The war in Europe has had some Russian forces and weapon systems move from the Syrian theater to the Ukraine front, and while that could have been seen as a positive development for Israel, it now poses a new problem, mainly because Iran is keen on filling the void left by Russia. And this time around, Iran’s entry to Syria will have full Russian backing. Even though Syrian President Bashar Assad owes his survival to Iranian and Russian intervention in the civil war, his regime has until recently understood that it would be best served by reducing Iran’s presence in the country to a minimum in order to prevent additional Israeli attacks. But now Assad has shifted gears and has fallen in line with Russia’s new set of priorities.
Transit point
Syria has set up key installations and bases close to the border with Israel. There have been many strikes on those targets in recent years. According to foreign media, these have been mostly the work of Israeli forces, as part of the “Campaign between Wars” to counter the Iranian-Syrian breach of Jerusalem’s red lines. Israel has often warned that it would not let Iran and its proxies – Hezbollah or various Shiite militias – consolidate power in Syria and establish another terror base on its borders. It has also made it clear that it would not let Syria become a staging ground for the transfer of game-changing weapon systems (i.e. precision-guided munitions) from Iran to Hezbollah. Before the war in Ukraine drew Russia into the Iranian embrace, there had been hope that the changes in Syria – under Moscow’s direction and due to Assad’s internal problems and realization that Iran’s presence is a burden on his regime – would create an opportunity for a move toward a positive path as far as Israel was concerned. But the war upended this rationale and now the emerging situation in Syria has become a problem for Israel.
Iran has sent weapons systems to help Russia, such as kamikaze drones, but this is just a symptom of the problem. Iran has taught Russia how to circumvent Western actions and how to game the international banking system, but the potential problem is much larger.
Warm relations
The US and Europe have been providing Ukraine with sophisticated weapon systems, despite not being of cutting-edge quality. During combat, it’s only natural that some will ultimately end up in Russian hands. The Russians have also been studying the Ukrainian modus operandi so that they could find out the true capabilities, limitations and advantages of those systems. The warm relations between Iran and Russia could result in some of those systems – including the know-how and relevant Russian experience from real combat – reach Iranian hands, mainly because Moscow would feel indebted to Tehran.
Recent examples of US weapon shipments to Ukraine demonstrate the problem that Israel could face if Iran lays its hands on them. The deliveries include multi-mission radars, reconnaissance systems and secure communications, ordnance disposal equipment, precision artillery systems (the guided multiple launch rocket system), and more. Ukraine has also asked for ATACMS (army tactical missile system, which is a surface-to-surface missile that has a range of 190 miles). While this system is rather obsolete, the missiles have high precision and a massive warhead. These systems, along with the know-how and experience gained, could create a major challenge to Israel if they reach Iranian-aligned forces.
An American absurd
The moderate Gulf states, which harbor real concerns over the threat posed by Iran, have been alarmed by the warm ties between Tehran and Moscow. In light of the feeble US response and the absurd efforts by the Biden administration to revive the JCPOA despite the conduct of Russia, Iran, and China, it is no surprise that some of the Sunni leaders have been exploring closer ties with Iran. It all boils down to the key question of “Does Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei really want a deal?” If so, how many additional concessions would he get from the US?
Israel must make sure Iran once again faces a credible military threat. The past suggests that this usually prompts a major shift in Iran’s behavior. This is what happened in 2003, after the US invasion of Iraq; this is what happened in the year 2011-2012, when Barack Obama warned that “all options are on the table” and when Israel was making signs that it was gearing up for a strike. This was also the case in 2020, when the US assassinated the head of the IRGC Qods Force Qassem Soleimani in a drone attack. All these instances had the credible military threat restored briefly, making Iran stop its nuclear provocations, only to resume them when Biden’s election had this threat disappear.
A change in doctrines
Israel must also consider a paradigm shift and move toward the Reagan Doctrine, which the US used against the Soviet Union. Reagan discarded containment, and instead embraced a comprehensive program that employed all available resources to weaken Moscow and prevent its expansion. And it worked.
On its northern border, Israel must discard the doctrine under which it only attacks on Syrian soil while letting Hezbollah continue unabated in its build-up of high-precision capabilities. Israel must continue to carry out strikes in Syria but also in Lebanon – even at the risk of an escalation – in order to ensure that Russia’s support of Iran and its regional proxies does not fundamentally change the reality. Israel must also find regional partners for the struggle against Iran. Regime change should not be the immediate goal, but it would suffice to have the interested parties marshal their resources to weaken the Iranian regime so that it does not engage in provocative actions under the protection of a deeply flawed nuclear deal.
*Brig. Gen. (Res.) Professor Jacob Nagel is a former national security adviser to the prime minister and a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
https://www.israelhayom.com/opinions/a-new-reality-means-israeli-will-have-to-strike-lebanon/

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 17-18.2022
COPTIC SOLIDARITY HOSTS DC EVENT, THE INDIGENOUS COPTS: MARGINALIZED & EXCLUDED IN THEIR HOMELAND
Coptic Solidarity on Standard Newswire/(Washington, DC) October 17, 2022
Coptic Solidarity will be hosting an event in Washington, DC on October 20th, titled The Indigenous Copts: Marginalized & Excluded in their Homeland from 11:30AM – 5:00 PM at 224 2nd St SE, Washington, DC 20003. This event is open to the pubic and press and requires online registration. Although CS has hosted an annual conference since its founding, and a Modern Coptic Martyrs Remembrance Day for the past 6 years, this is the first in-person event Coptic
Solidarity has hosted since the start of the global pandemic and is a small demonstration of the renewal of an advocacy presence in Washington DC.
The purpose of this event is to create awareness and action for Egypt’s indigenous Christians who continue to experience systematic discrimination in Egypt, in addition to heinous acts of violence against individual Copts, the burning of 11 churches in August of this year, and the continued trafficking of Coptic women and minor girls.
Confirmed speakers include Mr. Mohamad Magid – Commissioner, US Commission on International Religious Freedom; Executive Director of All Dulles Area Muslim Society Center; Chairman of International Interfaith Peace Corps; Ambassador Albert M. Fernandez – Vice President, Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI); Ms. Amy Hawthorne – Deputy Director for Research, Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED); Mr. Raymond Ibrahim – Author & public speaker specializing in the Middle East & Islam; Mr. Sean Nelson, JD Legal Counsel, Global Religious Freedom – ADF International; and Mr. Peter Burns, Director of the International Religious Freedom Summit.
While the U.S. House of Representatives will be in a district work period this week, critical supporters of #CopticEquality have recorded messages for the event, including U.S. Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA) – Co-Chair, Egypt Human Rights Caucus; U.S. Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R-FL) Co Chair, International Religious Freedom Caucus; Executive Committee Member, Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission (TLHRC); U.S. Rep. David Cicilline (D-RI) Original Co-Sponsor of H. RES 117 Supporting Coptic Christians in Egypt; U.S. Rep. French Hill (R-AR) Sponsor of H. RES 117 Supporting Coptic Christians in Egypt; and U.S. Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA) Co-Chair, TLHRC.
*Coptic Solidarity is an organization seeking to help minorities, particularly the Copts, of Egypt and we support those in Egypt working for democracy, freedom, and the protection of the fundamental rights of all Egyptian citizens. It advocates in cooperation with the affiliated organizations in Canada and in Europe (Solidarité Copte). For more information, contact Lindsay Rodriguez at 801-512-1713 or coptadvocacy@copticsolidarity.org

Iran prison fire death toll rises to 8 inmates killed
Reuters/October 17, 2022
DUBAI: Eight prisoners died as a result of a fire at Tehran’s Evin prison over the weekend, Iran’s judiciary said on Monday, doubling the death toll from the blaze which has increased pressure on a government struggling to contain mass protests.
The death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini on Sept. 16 while in police custody has sparked protests across the country which the authorities have been trying to put down by force. Iran’s judiciary said all the victims of the prison blaze had been held in a section of the prison designated for prisoners of robbery-related crimes. Evin also holds political prisoners and many detainees facing security charges, including Iranians with dual nationality. Authorities said that a prison workshop had been set on fire “after a fight among a number of prisoners convicted of financial crimes and theft.” State media reported on Sunday that the first four deaths had been caused by smoke inhalation and that more than 60 had been injured, four of them critically. In a commentary, state newspaper Iran said that counter-revolutionary forces with the help of foreign intelligence services planned the fire in order to keep international attention on the country’s unrest. “A review of its different dimensions of this event indicates due to the presence of these dual-national “spies” or “spies” who are citizens of western countries, this would attract sensitivity of those countries, igniting the protesters,” said the newspaper. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said the fire at Evin could happen in any country. US President Joe Biden and the European Union are among those to have criticized Tehran’s crackdown on protesters, with the EU considering to impose asset freezes and travel bans on a number of Iranian officials involved. The judiciary spokesperson Masoud Setayeshi warned that “Spreading lies with the intention of disturbing public opinion is punishable by law.”Families of some political detainees took to social media to call on the authorities to ensure their safety at Evin, which in 2018 was blacklisted by the US government for “serious human rights abuses.”The protests sparked by Amini’s death a month ago have turned into one of the boldest challenges to Iran’s clerical rulers since the 1979 revolution, with protesters calling for the downfall of the Islamic Republic, even if the unrest does not seem close to toppling the system. Protests resumed early on Monday in Yazd and several other cities. The widely followed activist Tasvir1500 Twitter account carried a video showing people setting fire in the streets and calling for the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Reuters could not independently verify the videos. Iran has deployed the Basij militia, voluntary military troops which have been at the forefront of repressing popular unrest, but they have failed to contain the protests. The elite Revolutionary Guards, who have not taken part in the crackdown, began military exercises on Monday. Rights groups said at least 240 protesters had been killed, including 32 minors. Over 8,000 people had been arrested in 111 cities and towns, Iranian activist news agency HRANA said on Saturday. The authorities have not published a death toll. Iran, which has blamed the violence on enemies at home and abroad, denies security forces have killed protesters. State media said on Saturday at least 26 members of the security forces had been killed by “rioters.”

Satellite Photos Show Damage at Iran Prison amid Protests
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 17 October, 2022
A fire that burned through part of Iran's notorious Evin Prison damaged one of the largest buildings at the complex, according to satellite photos analyzed Monday, as authorities raised the death toll in the still-murky incident, saying at least eight prisoners were killed.
What happened on Saturday night at the prison, which houses both inmates convicted on criminal charges to political prisoners held by the country's competing intelligence arms, remains unclear. However, online videos purport to show chaotic scenes with a prison siren wailing as flames rise from the complex, the apparent crackle of gunfire and people screaming: “Death to the dictator!” The fire erupted as nationwide anti-government protests triggered by the death of a young woman after being detained by the country's morality police entered a fifth week.
Tensions in Iran have escalated to a point unseen since the mass demonstrations that accompanied the country's 2009 Green Movement protests. A fire at one of Tehran's most heavily guarded facilities potentially raises the stakes for those continuing to rally against the government and the mandatory headscarf, or hijab, for women after the death of Mahsa Amini. Satellite photos taken Sunday by Planet Labs PBC and analyzed by The Associated Press show the roof burning away from a large building that's part of the northern section of Evin Prison. The Iran Prison Atlas, a project by the California-based rights group United for Iran, which collects data on Iranian prisons and prisoners, had previously identified the structure's wards as housing prisoners convicted on fraud and theft cases — not those held on political charges. However, the Iran Prison Atlas has warned that wards have changed over the years.
The reformist newspaper Etemad on Monday quoted Mostafa Nili, a lawyer for some political prisoners at Evin, as identifying one of the affected areas as Ward 8. He described those imprisoned there as political prisoners serving sentences handed down by the courts and others convicted on financial charges.
He also said political prisoners in Ward 4 of the prison inhaled tear gas during the incident. The semiofficial Tasnim news agency also said Evin's Wards 6 and 7 sustained damage as well. Iranian state television rushed a camera crew to the site early Sunday morning, filming a reporter walking through one ward with prisoners asleep in bunks as firefighters doused the embers of the blaze. The TV described the fire as having taken place at a sewing workshop. Iran's judiciary on Monday raised the death toll from the blaze to eight. Authorities have blamed “rioters” for setting the blaze, though they haven't described what measures they took against the prisoners on site. Video of the fire purports to show people on the roof of the building, tossing liquid on the flames at first. Apparent gunfire echoes through other videos, including what appears to be some sort of ordinance being lobbed into the prison complex, followed by the sound of an explosion. As the fire grew larger, one video includes voices shouting: “Death to the dictator!” That cry against Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has become common at night in Tehran amid the protests, even though it carries the risk of a death sentence in a closed-door Revolutionary Court. The protests erupted after public outrage over the death of 22-year-old Amini in police custody. She was arrested by Iran’s morality police in Tehran for violating the country’s strict dress code. Iran’s government insists Amini was not mistreated in police custody, but her family says her body showed bruises and other signs of beating after she was detained. Evin Prison, which holds detainees facing security-related charges and includes dual citizens, has been charged by rights groups with abusing inmates. The facility has long been known for holding political prisoners as well as those with ties to the West who have been used by Iran as bargaining chips in international negotiations.

EU Ministers Warn Iran of New Sanctions over Ukraine War
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 17 October, 2022
Some European Union foreign ministers on Monday called for new sanctions against Iran if Tehran's involvement in Russia's war on Ukraine is proven. Ukraine has reported a spate of Russian attacks with Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones in recent weeks. Iran denies supplying the drones to Russia, while the Kremlin has not commented. "We will look for concrete evidence about the participation (of Iran in the Ukraine war)," Josep Borrell told reporters as he arrived for a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg, adding Ukraine's Dmytro Kuleba would take part in the gathering. The EU could decide to move towards imposing new sanctions against Iran over the matter, according to two diplomats involved in preparing talks among the ministers, though no detailed decisions were expected on Monday. Denmark's Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod said the EU should react strongly to new air attacks on Kyiv where drones struck buildings near a central railway station during rush hours on Monday morning. "What we can see now: Iranian drones are used apparently to attack in the middle of Kyiv, this is an atrocity," Kofod said, saying the EU had to take "concrete steps" in response to that, as well as Tehran cracking down on protesters at home. The bloc is already set to impose on Monday travel bans and freeze the assets of some 15 Iranians involved in a government crackdown that began last month against demonstrators outraged by the death in police custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini. France and Germany, both parties to the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, have made it clear they believed new sanctions in connection to the drones used by Russia were necessary given that such transfers violated a resolution by the UN Security Council. Additional EU sanctions on Iran will not be limited to blacklisting some individuals should Tehran's involvement in Russia's war on Ukraine be proven, Luxembourg's Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn said. "Then it will be no longer about some individuals to be sanctioned," he told reporters as he arrived for the EU meeting.

Washington ‘Deeply Disappointed’ by Palestinian President’s Meeting with Putin
Tel Aviv- Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 17 October, 2022
The US administration issued a rare public stinging rebuke of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, days after he lauded Russian President Vladimir Putin while slamming the United States. “We were deeply disappointed to hear President Abbas’s remarks to President Putin. Russia does not stand for justice and international law, as evidenced by the vote at the UN General Assembly,” a National Security Council spokesperson said. According to Israeli sources, the spokesperson’s remarks are only part of US President Joe Biden administration's rage over Abbas' meeting with Putin and saying he has no trust in the US. They affirmed that the US anger will translate into practices against the Palestinian Authority. The sources added that some people in Tel Aviv sought to leak the text of Abbas’s remarks, which were not mentioned in the presidency’s official statement at the time, and in which he was keen to insult Biden and his administration. The Palestinian president on Thursday used an audience with Putin to denounce the US, telling the Russian leader that he has no faith in Washington as a Mideast peace broker. Abbas met Putin on the sidelines of the 6th summit of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-building Measures in Asia (CICA) in Astana, Kazakhstan. He reiterated his support for the so-called Quartet of international mediators - Russia, the US, the UN, and the European Union - but said the US could not be left a free hand to act alone. His comments about the US, traditionally the main broker between Israel and the Palestinians, came at a time when the US and Russia are at loggerheads over Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. “We don't trust America and you know our position. We don't trust it, we don't rely on it, and under no circumstances can we accept that America is the sole party in resolving a problem,” Abbas told Putin. Later in televised remarks, the Palestinian President said Washington can be within the Quartet since it is a great country but that the PA will never accept it as the only one. In return, Abbas said he was “completely satisfied” with Russia's position towards the Palestinian people. “Russia stands by justice and international law and that is enough for us,” he stressed. “When you say you stand by international legitimacy, this is enough for me and that is what I want. Therefore, we are happy and satisfied with the Russian position,” Abbas added. According to the publication in Tel Aviv on Sunday, Biden's team was outraged by these statements and considered them a blow to the US efforts to resolve the Palestinian cause and cancel the decisions of former President Donald Trump, which severed the US-Palestinian ties. Yedioth Ahronoth Newspaper published an opinion piece by Ben-Dror Yemeni, who said that when it comes to major international conflicts throughout history, the Palestinian leadership has often, if not always, chosen to support “the wrong side.”He cited the “wrong” positions, stating that During World War II, then-leader Mufti Hajj Amin al-Husseini chose the German Nazi Reich and spent the duration of the war in Berlin, and allegedly advised Hitler to destroy all Jews in the Arab world. “In the 1960s, then PLO-leader Ahmad Shukeiri, conspired with Jordan, Syria, and Egypt to drive away the Jews, leading to their defeat in the 1967 Six-Day War,” the article stated, adding that in the Gulf War Yasser Arafat supported Saddam Hussein, and now Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom Abbas has opted to side. A source in the Palestinian presidency responded to this publication, saying that Abbas briefed Putin on the situation and underlined the Israeli escalation in Palestine. “It was clear to us that the timing of the meeting with Putin would constitute a problem, but we did not have many options left,” the source stressed.

US accuses Iran of lying over use of its drones in Ukraine
Reuters/October 17, 2022
WASHINGTON D.C.: The US agrees with British and French assessments that Iran supplying drones to Russia would violate a UN Security Council resolution that endorsed the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and six powers, US State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said on Monday.
“Earlier today our French and British allies publicly offered the assessment that Iran’s supply of these UAVs (for) Russia is a violation of UN Security Council resolution 2231,” Patel told reporters, referring to unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones. “This is something that we agree with.”
Ukraine has reported a spate of Russian attacks using Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones in recent weeks. Iran denies supplying the drones to Russia, while the Kremlin has not commented. The State Department assessed that Iranian drones were used on Monday in a morning rush hour attack on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, an official said. White House spokesperson Karinne Jean-Pierre also accused Tehran of lying when it says Iranian drones are not being used by Russia in Ukraine. Resolution 2231 endorsed the deal between Iran and Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States that limited Tehran’s uranium enrichment activity, making it harder for Iran to develop nuclear arms while lifting international sanctions. Under the resolution, a conventional arms embargo on Iran was in place until October 2020. Despite US efforts under former president Donald Trump, who took the United States out of the deal in 2018, to extend the arms embargo, the Security Council rejected this, paving the way for Iran to resume arms exports. However, Western diplomats said the resolution still includes restrictions on missiles and related technologies that last until October 2023 and that encompass the export and purchase of advanced military systems such as drones. “It is our belief that these UAVs that are transferred from Iran to Russia and used by Russia in Ukraine are among the weapons that would remain embargoed under 2231,” Patel said.

Ukraine Nuclear Plant Disconnected from Power Grid after Russian Shelling
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 17 October, 2022
Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was disconnected from the national power grid on Monday following Russian shelling, prompting backup diesel generators to kick in, state nuclear energy firm Energoatom said. "Russian terrorists once again shelled critical infrastructure substations in Ukraine-controlled territory, resulting in the shutdown of the last 750 kV ZNPP-Dniprovska communications line at 03:59," it said in a statement.Russian forces have occupied the plant in southern Ukraine, Europe's largest, since shortly after invading Ukraine nearly eight months ago but it is operated by Ukrainian staff.

UN: Ukraine War Pushes 4 Million Children into Poverty
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 17 October, 2022
Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the resulting economic fallout have thrown four million children into poverty across eastern Europe and Central Asia, the UN children's agency said Monday. "Children are bearing the heaviest burden of the economic crisis caused by the war in Ukraine," UNICEF said. The conflict "and rising inflation have driven an additional four million children across eastern Europe and Central Asia into poverty, a 19 percent increase since 2021", it said. UNICEF drew its conclusions from a study of data from 22 countries, AFP said. Russian and Ukrainian children have been most affected since Moscow's attack on its neighbor in February. "Russia accounts for nearly three-quarters of the total increase in the number of children living in poverty due to the Ukraine war and a cost-of-living crisis across the region, with an additional 2.8 million children now living in households below the poverty line," UNICEF found. The blow to Russia's economy from Western sanctions combined with its large population to produce the outsize effect. "Ukraine is home to half a million additional children living in poverty, the second largest share," UNICEF added. Romania followed closely behind, with a further 110,000 children in poverty. "Children all over the region are being swept up in this war's terrible wake," said UNICEF regional director for Europe and Central Asia, Afshan Khan. "If we don't support these children and families now, the steep rise in child poverty will almost certainly result in lost lives, lost learning, and lost futures."The poorer a family is, the greater the proportion of its income it must spend on food and fuel, leaving less for children's healthcare and education, the agency explained. They are also "more at risk of violence, exploitation and abuse". This could well translate into an additional 4,500 children dying before their first birthdays, and an additional 117,000 children dropping out of school this year alone, UNICEF said.

Ukraine: Russian 'Kamikaze Drones' Strike Kyiv
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 17 October, 2022
Russian-launched "kamikaze drones" attacked Kyiv early Monday, the Ukrainian presidency said, describing the strikes as an act of desperation nearly eight months into a war that has claimed thousands of lives. Air raid sirens sounded in Kyiv shortly before the first explosion at around 6:35 am (0335), followed by sirens across most of the country, said AFP. "The capital was attacked by kamikaze drones," the president's chief of staff Andriy Yermak said on social media. "The Russians think it will help them, but it shows their desperation," he added. "We need more air defense systems and as soon as possible. More weapons to defend the sky and destroy the enemy." The attacks come exactly a week after Russia unleashed a massive wave of missile strikes on the Ukrainian capital and cities across the country. Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko said the drone attack had caused a fire and damaged several buildings in the central Shevchenkivsky district and warned residents to take shelter. "Fire departments are working. Several residential buildings were damaged. Medics are on the spot," he said on Telegram. "We are clarifying the information about the casualties."The mayor also posted a picture of what he said was the charred wreckage of one of the kamikaze drones, loitering munitions that can hover while waiting for a target to attack.
'Iranian drones'
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last week said Iranian drones were used in Russian attacks on energy infrastructure in several Ukrainian cities, although Tehran denies supplying Russia with weapons for the war. On October 10, Russian missiles rained down on Kyiv and other cities in the biggest wave of strikes in months. The attacks killed at least 19 people, wounded 105 others and sparked an international outcry. Moscow carried out further strikes on October 11, though on a smaller scale, striking energy installations in western Ukraine far from the front. Russian President Vladimir Putin said the strikes were in retaliation for an explosion that damaged a key bridge linking Russia to the Moscow-annexed Crimean peninsula. Putin on Friday had expressed satisfaction and said there was no need for further massive strikes on Ukraine "for now". The Russian president also claimed Moscow was "doing everything right" in its nearly eight-month invasion of Ukraine despite a string of embarrassing defeats. In southern Ukraine, Kyiv's troops have been pushing closer and closer to Kherson, the main city in the region of the same name just north of Crimea. Kherson is one of four regions in Ukraine that Moscow recently claimed to have annexed, and the city of Kherson was the first major city to fall after the Kremlin launched its invasion. Washington on Friday announced fresh military assistance for Kyiv "in the wake of Russia's brutal missile attacks on civilians across Ukraine". The new $725 million package included more ammunition for the Himars rocket systems that have been used by Ukraine to wreak havoc on Russian targets. It brings the total US military assistance to Ukraine to $17.6 billion since the Russian invasion on February 24.

Russia Says It Launched Major Attack on Ukrainian Infrastructure
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 17 October, 2022
Russia's defense ministry said on Monday it had carried out a large-scale attack on military targets and energy infrastructure across Ukraine using high-precision weapons. In its daily briefing the defense ministry said it had hit "all designated targets" in the latest bombardment of Ukrainian cities and also thwarted an attempt by Ukraine to breach its defenses in the southern Kherson region. Several people were killed in Russian air attacks on Ukrainian cities on Monday, Ukrainian Interior Minister Denys Monastyrskyi said. "During the day, Russia's armed forces continued to strike with high-precision long-range air and sea-based weapons at military command facilities and Ukraine's energy system. All designated objects were hit," the Russian defense ministry said. Russia has escalated its missile strikes across Ukraine after an explosion hit a landmark bridge linking Russia to the annexed Crimean peninsula earlier this month. Following that blast, Russia unleashed its largest missile attacks since the start of the invasion, hitting targets in more than a dozen cities and regions across the country, and has launched several follow-up missile strikes in the days since.

Egypt Seeks to Become Regional Hub to Produce, Exchange Renewable Energy
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 17 October, 2022
Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi met with Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Siemens Energy Joe Kaeser in Cairo on Sunday. Egypt’s Minister of Electricity and Renewable Energy Dr. Mohamed Shaker, President and CEO of Siemens Energy AG Dr.-Eng. Christian Bruch, and Managing Director of Siemens Energy in Egypt Engineer Layla El-Hares attended the meeting. The meeting comes in line with Cairo’s efforts to transform into a regional hub for the production and exchange of new and renewable energy. A spokesman for the Egyptian Presidency Bassam Rady said the discussions highlighted the cooperation with Siemens in green energy projects. Egypt is seeking to transform into a regional gas trade hub in the Mediterranean by taking advantage of its liquefaction stations, through which it can import explored gas in the eastern Mediterranean to liquefy and re-export.
It has an ambitious vision to transform into a hub for producing and exporting clean energy, especially green hydrogen and solar and wind energy. Sisi underlined Siemens’ successful efforts in establishing power plants in Egypt, noting that he looks forward to benefiting from the company’s expertise in several development sectors mainly in renewable energy and electricity interconnection projects. Rady quoted Sisi as saying that Cairo could also benefit from Siemens’ expertise in the professional technical and vocational training programs provided to the Egyptian cadres, consolidating the German standards represented in high performance and accurate production, Kaeser, for his part, hailed the fruitful cooperation with Egypt, which he said is represented in numerous projects in the field of energy. The most notable project is the “three combined cycle power plants that have become the current backbone of the Egyptian power grid.”“Siemens considers them one of the prominent icons in the history of the company since its inception,” Kaeser noted. He said the company looks forward to further promoting the existing partnership with Egypt, particularly in the fields of new and renewable energy.

Envoy says UN to push for nationwide cease-fire in Syria
Associated Press/Monday, 17 October, 2022
The United Nations will push for a nationwide cease-fire in Syria even after bursts of fighting in the last rebel-held region have punctured a two-year truce there, killing hundreds, a U.N. envoy said Monday. Geir Pedersen, the U.N. special envoy for Syria, spoke to reporters after meeting the foreign minister in Damascus. Syria's economic situation is "extremely difficult as close to 15 million people are in need for humanitarian assistance," he said. Syrian government forces have over the past years captured much of the country with the help of President Bashar Assad's allies Russia and Iran. A cease-fire brokered by Turkey and Russia in March 2020 stopped a Russian-backed government offensive on the last rebel stronghold in northwestern Syria. But despite the relative calm, shelling and airstrikes have killed hundreds of civilians in the past two years. "Since March 2020, we have a cease-fire in place, we have front lines that are not shifted but still too many civilians are being killed so that's still a challenge," Pedersen said. He added that "we will continue to work to try to see if there is a possibly for a nationwide cease-fire."The political process has not delivered peace to the Syrian people, Pedersen added and pledged that the U.N. would continue to work on the humanitarian needs of all, refugees and displaced, both in and outside government-controlled areas. More than 80% of Syrians now live in poverty, leaving much of the population dependent on humanitarian assistance. The conflict that started in 2011 has killed hundreds of thousands and displaced half the country's pre-war population of 23 million. Pedersen said the U.N. Security Council Resolution 2254 that was adopted unanimously in December 2015 and endorsed a road map to peace in Syria "has not been working."The resolution calls for a Syrian-led political process, starting with the establishment of a transitional governing body, followed by the drafting of a new constitution and ending with U.N.-supervised elections. "The good news is that all parties still say they are committed to that resolution," Pedersen said. The main question that remains is whether everyone can start rebuilding "a little bit" of confidence in order to move forward, he said.

Saudi defends oil policy in face of US charges
Associated Press/Monday, 17 October, 2022
Saudi Arabia has rejected US accusations of aligning itself with Russia amid the Ukraine war by making oil production cuts to drive up crude prices, insisting it was purely a business decision. "We are astonished by the accusations that the kingdom is standing with Russia in its war with Ukraine," the Saudi defense minister, Prince Khaled bin Salman, tweeted late Sunday. The Saudi-led OPEC+ cartel -- which includes Russia -- has angered Washington by deciding to cut production by two million barrels per day from November, adding further pressure on soaring crude prices. "It is telling that these false accusations did not come from the Ukrainian government," Prince Khaled wrote. "Although the OPEC+ decision, which was taken unanimously, was due to purely economic reasons, some accused the kingdom of standing with Russia. "Iran is also a member of OPEC, does this mean that the kingdom is standing with Iran as well?" he asked, referring to Saudi Arabia's regional rival. In a speech broadcast on Sunday night, Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud insisted his country was "working hard, within its energy strategy, to support the stability and balance of global oil markets". The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, which like Saudi Arabia are US allies as well as OPEC partners, also defended the cartel's decision as a "technical" move. White House spokesman John Kirby said last week that Riyadh knew the cut "would increase Russian revenues and blunt the effectiveness of sanctions" on Moscow. The United States has vowed to re-evaluate ties with the oil-rich kingdom since the cut, which was seen as a diplomatic slap in the face for President Joe Biden by hiking prices on US consumers weeks before congressional elections. Despite vowing to make the kingdom an international "pariah" following the October 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Biden travelled to Saudi Arabia in July and met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman -- with the two greeting each other with a high-profile fist bump. But with relations now strained, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Sunday that Biden has "no plans" to meet with Prince Mohammed at an upcoming G20 summit in Indonesia.

Iraq's new president calls for speedy government formation
Agence France Presse/Monday, 17 October, 2022
Iraq's newly-elected President Abdul Latif Rashid pledged Monday on taking office to throw his weight behind efforts to rapidly form a strong new government. "The Iraqi people expect a new government to be formed rapidly, and that it be efficient and united," Rashid said on his inauguration at the presidential palace in Baghdad. Rashid, 78, elected last Thursday to the largely ceremonial post reserved for Iraq's Kurdish minority, swiftly named Mohammed Shia al-Sudani as prime minister-designate. Sudani's task now is to form a new government that would end a year of political gridlock in the war-scarred nation since general elections were held in October 2021. But the movement of firebrand cleric Moqtada Sadr, Sudani's rival in Iraq's majority Shiite camp, Saturday announced its refusal to join a Sudani-led government, igniting fears of renewed delays that are common in Iraq's multi-confessional politics. Under the Iraqi constitution, the prime minister-designate has 30 days to form a government, a deadline that has often been missed. "I will do everything I can to bring political forces closer and sponsor a dialogue," Rashid said, also vowing to work toward "solid and balanced relations with neighboring countries and the international community".The stakes are high for the next cabinet, with a colossal $87 billion in revenues from oil exports locked up in the central bank's coffers.The money can help rebuild infrastructure but it can only be spent after lawmakers approve a state budget presented by the new government.

UN Says Renewed Tribal Clashes Kill 13 in Southern Sudan
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 17 October, 2022
Renewed tribal clashes in a southern province in Sudan have killed at least 13 people and injured more than two dozen others since late last week in the latest violence to hit the chaotic nation in recent months, the UN said Monday. The violence in the Blue Nile province came as the country’s ruling generals and the main factions of the sprawling pro-democracy movement have made progress in internationally-backed talks to find a way out of last year’s military coup that plunged Sudan into worsening turmoil. Clashes between the Hausa and Birta ethnic groups began Thursday over a land dispute in the Wad al-Mahi District, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. The fighting, which lasted for four days before subsiding Sunday, displaced at least 1,200 people who were taking refuge in schools there, it said. Government offices and the town’s market were closed, making it difficult for its residents to get their daily needs, it said. Authorities also imposed restrictions on people’s movements in the area amid fears of revenge attacks, it said. The UN migration agency said the Jabalaween tribe, who are on the side of Brita group, expelled their rivals, the Hausa, from the area, which has been inaccessible to humanitarian agencies. The fighting between the two tribes originally began in mid-July. A total of 149 people were killed and 124 others were wounded as of Oct. 6, according to OCHA. The fighting in the Blue Nile triggered violent protests in other provinces where thousands, mostly Hausa, took to the streets to protest the government’s lack of response to the clashes. It is the latest tribal violence to hit Sudan, which is home to several long-running ethnic conflicts. The country was already in turmoil since the military took over the government in a coup last year.
The military’s takeover removed a civilian-led Western backed government, upending the country’s short-lived transition to democracy after nearly three decades of repressive rule by president Omar al-Bashir. A popular uprising forced the removal of al-Bashir and his government in April 2019.
In July, Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, the country’s leading military officer who mounted the coup in October last year, said the military would withdraw from politics and allow political forces to form a civilian government to complete the country’s transition.
The Forces for the Declaration of Freedom and Change — an alliance of political parties and protest groups — said the military has agreed on a draft constitutional document written by the country’s Bar Association. The document allows the appointment by “revolutionary forces” of a civilian prime minister to lead the country through elections within 24 months. Khalid Omar, a former minister and leading pro-democracy activist, said they engaged with the military and international parties, and they found that the generals “are serious in handing over power to civilians.”“This is a positive sign that we should seize and build on,” he told a news conference Monday in the capital of Khartoum. He said they would discuss the draft constitutional document with other political and protest groups, with the aim of ending the coup.

UK axes ‘almost all’ budget tax cuts in humiliation for Truss
AFP/October 17, 2022
Monday’s U-turn comes after Truss was elected Tory leader on a tax-slashing platform that analysts dubbed ‘Trussonomics’
The Labour party, riding high in the polls, said the ruling Tories were responsible for ‘chaos and fiasco’
LONDON: The British government on Monday axed almost all of its debt-fueled tax cuts unveiled last month to avert fresh markets chaos, in a humiliating climbdown for embattled Prime Minister Liz Truss. The shock move by new finance chief Jeremy Hunt, parachuted into the job on Friday to replace sacked Kwasi Kwarteng, leaves Truss’ position in a precarious state after a series of embarrassing U-turns. Hunt estimated the tax changes would raise about £32 billion ($36 billion) per year, after economists estimated the government faced a £60-billion black hole. He also warned of tough spending cuts.
The chancellor of the exchequer said no government could control markets — but stressed his action would give certainty over public finances and help secure growth. “The prime minister and I agreed yesterday to reverse almost all the tax measures announced in the growth plan three weeks ago,” Hunt told parliament, flanked by a grim-faced Truss. “I want to be completely frank about the scale of the economic challenge we face,” he added, detailing the domestic and international headwinds confronting Britain.The chancellor also announced the formation of an economic advisory council, featuring four experts outside of government.Hours earlier, he had used a brief televised statement to announce the dramatic reversals to nervous markets, conceding last month’s budget from his predecessor had harmed the public purse. “The most important objective for our country right now is stability,” Hunt had noted.
Hunt scrapped plans to axe the lowest rate of income tax, and curbed the government’s flagship energy price freeze — pulling the plug in April instead of late 2024. After April, his department will “review” its energy support package, he said. A proposed reduction in shareholder dividend tax was also binned, along with planned tax-free shopping for tourists and a freeze on alcohol duty.
The announcement comes as Truss’ governing Conservative party tanks in the opinion polls amid the reversals and Britain’s worsening cost-of-living crisis. Truss fired her close friend Kwarteng on Friday after their recent tax-slashing budget sparked markets chaos — fueling intense speculation over her political future one month after taking office. “No government can control the markets but every government can give certainty about the sustainability of public finances,” Hunt added Monday. His action sent the British pound soaring against the dollar and euro, while bond yields dipped.
Last month’s notorious budget had sent bond yields spiking and the pound collapsing to a record dollar-low on fears of rocketing UK debt.
Tax reductions financed via huge borrowing were the centerpiece of last month’s ill-fated budget.
Truss had already staged two embarrassing budget U-turns, scrapping tax cuts for the richest earners and on company profits, and is now facing calls to resign even from her own MPs. “There will be more difficult decisions I am afraid, on both tax and spending, as we deliver our commitment to get debt falling as a share of the economy over the medium term,” Hunt cautioned. “All departments will need to redouble their efforts to find savings, and some areas of spending will need to be cut.”Hunt already stated that he was not taking anything off the table” amid speculation of cutbacks on areas like defense, hospitals and schools. He met over the weekend with the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, and the head of the Debt Management Office for talks. In the wake of the earlier turmoil, the BoE launched emergency buying of UK government bonds — a policy that ended Friday.
The budget furor has reportedly sparked a plot to oust the prime minister. UK media reported senior Conservative MPs were plotting to unseat Truss, aghast at her short tenure. Monday’s latest massive U-turn comes after Truss was elected Tory leader on a tax-slashing platform that analysts dubbed “Trussonomics.” “That sound you can hear is the death knell for Trussonomics, with the vast majority of her tax cutting plans now consigned to the bin,” said Laura Suter, head of personal finance at stockbroker AJ Bell. “People have had yogurt in their fridge that’s lasted longer than some of the government’s planned tax cuts,” she added. In two weeks’ time, Hunt will unveil his medium-term fiscal plan alongside independent economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility. But the main opposition Labour party, riding high in the polls, said the ruling Tories were responsible for “chaos and fiasco.”“This is a Tory crisis, made in Downing Street, but ordinary working people are paying the price,” its finance spokeswoman Rachel Reeves told parliament.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 17-18.2022
China Can Sneak-Attack Taiwan
Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/October 17, 2022
Americans may not even know that China has struck the first blow until months after it has occurred... Americans think China's war planners think like America's war planners. Unfortunately, the Chinese ones do not. First strikes, despite what former intelligence officials believe, do not have to look like the invasion of Normandy in 1944.
Chinese doctrine is different, something evident from Unrestricted Warfare, the 1999 book by Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, then two Chinese air force colonels.
So what would China's first attack on Taiwan look like? Say, six months before an invasion China, violating the Biological Weapons Convention, could release a deadly pathogen on Taiwan.
China's National Defense University, in the 2017 edition of the authoritative Science of Military Strategy, mentioned a new kind of biological warfare of "specific ethnic genetic attacks." Pathogens can now be designed to infect specific groups and even specific individuals.
A regime monstrous enough to kill millions around the world [with COVID-19: the Chinese Communist Party pressured other countries to take arrivals from China without restriction while locking down Chinese territory] is surely monstrous enough to release, as the first act in a conflict, a disease on the 23.9 million people of Taiwan. It could take the Pentagon months to realize that China had started a war to annex the island republic.
I suspect Chinese ruler Xi Jinping would not be overly upset if Taiwan were a smoking radioactive slab as long as it were part of the People's Republic of China.
"The biggest problem with the 'China Hands' of the U.S. intelligence community is their inability to place themselves into the mindset of the Communist Party and its Central Military Commission, in other words, to think like the enemy. There is still too much mirror-imaging going on....." — James Fanell, Geneva Centre for Security Policy, to Gatestone, in response to the Culver report, October 2022.
Americans make assumptions about the Chinese style of warfare; some of those assumptions are almost certainly wrong.
Americans may not even know that China has struck the first blow until months after it has occurred. Americans think China's war planners think like America's war planners. Unfortunately, the Chinese ones do not. First strikes, despite what former intelligence officials believe, do not have to look like the invasion of Normandy in 1944. (Image source: iStock)
The United States will have months of warning before China attacks Taiwan.
At least that is what John Culver, a retired CIA officer and now an Atlantic Council scholar, argues in a report issued this month by the influential Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
On the contrary, Americans may not even know that China has struck the first blow until months after it has occurred. As Culver's writings show, Americans think China's war planners think like America's war planners. Unfortunately, the Chinese ones do not. First strikes, despite what former intelligence officials believe, do not have to look like the invasion of Normandy in 1944.
"Any invasion of Taiwan will not be secret for months prior to Beijing's initiation of hostilities," writes Culver in "How We Would Know When China Is Preparing to Invade Taiwan." "It would be a national, all-of-regime undertaking for a war potentially lasting years."
Therefore, foreign intelligence agencies and amateur sleuths could see China surging production of missiles and other items "at least a year before D-Day." Moreover, Beijing would take steps to sanctions-proof itself, such as selling and repatriating foreign assets. It would ration or reduce demand of "key goods" like oil and gas. The regime would restrict "Chinese elites and high-priority workers" from leaving China, Culver points out. China's leaders would prepare the population for austerity. Beijing would launch blood drives. Moreover, the People's Liberation Army would halt demobilizations of personnel and call up reservists. Regular training would end. The military would build field hospitals. As Culver writes, "If China decides to fight a war of choice over Taiwan, strategic surprise would be a casualty of the sheer scale of the undertaking."
Maybe. Culver is describing how the America military would ready itself for an invasion. Yet Chinese doctrine is different, something evident from Unrestricted Warfare, the 1999 book by Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, then two Chinese air force colonels.
China, the two officers wrote, can and should recognize no limits in what it would do to win a war. Analysts think the Chinese military has adopted the key tenets of the widely read work.
So what would China's first attack on Taiwan look like? Say, six months before an invasion China, violating the Biological Weapons Convention, could release a deadly pathogen on Taiwan.
China's National Defense University, in the 2017 edition of the authoritative Science of Military Strategy, mentioned a new kind of biological warfare of "specific ethnic genetic attacks." Pathogens can now be designed to infect specific groups and even specific individuals. "In a future war, we can expect China to use refined and targeted strains of coronavirus or other pathogens to target certain ethnic groups, certain countries, or certain age cohorts," Richard Fisher of the Virginia-based International Assessment and Strategy Center told Newsweek last year. As Fisher noted, the COVID-19 pandemic was a proof of concept that biological weapons work.
China's regime has already weaponized one pathogen, SARS-CoV-2. Although scientists do not agree that the virus was engineered, it is clear the Communist Party lied about contagiousness — it told the world that the disease was not human-to-human transmissible when it knew it was highly so — and pressured other countries to take arrivals from China without restriction while locking down Chinese territory. Taken together, these two acts show that the Communist Party wanted COVID-19 to infect those beyond China's borders. At last count, more than 6.5 million people outside China have been killed by a pathogen that should have been confined to that country. A regime monstrous enough to kill millions around the world is surely monstrous enough to release, as the first act in a conflict, a disease on the 23.9 million people of Taiwan. It could take the Pentagon months to realize that China had started a war to annex the island republic. Some might say that, after an epidemic in Taiwan, Beijing would still have to mobilize forces and the world could then observe the effort. This observation would be true only if the People's Liberation Army decided to wage a war with just conventional weapons.
Tactical nuclear strikes on Taiwan's military installations and cities could allow China to take a depopulated island with a small, light, quick-to-mobilize force. I suspect Chinese ruler Xi Jinping would not be overly upset if Taiwan were a smoking radioactive slab as long as it were part of the People's Republic of China. Why? The condition of a conquered Taiwan does not really matter to the Communist Party. It wants democratic Taiwan principally because the island republic represents a direct challenge to its core narrative that the Chinese people cannot govern themselves. Although most people in Taiwan do not self-identify as Chinese, their democracy, in the eyes of Communist Party leaders, is an existential threat to their rule.
The People's Republic of China for decades has threatened nuclear strikes against Taiwan or countries coming to its assistance. In fact, Beijing has increased the frequency of such warnings since July of last year, when it proclaimed it would incinerate Japan. After that threat, it has promised destruction to all others coming to Taiwan's aid. If Vladimir Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine and gets away with it — a distinct possibility — Xi Jinping might think he can also launch nukes. None of this is to say that Beijing will definitely resort to these means to take Taiwan. It is to say, however, that Culver's optimistic we-will-see-it-coming line of thinking looks incorrect. "The biggest problem with the 'China Hands' of the U.S. intelligence community is their inability to place themselves into the mindset of the Communist Party and its Central Military Commission, in other words, to think like the enemy," James Fanell of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy told Gatestone, in response to the Culver report. "There is still too much mirror-imaging going on and not enough willingness to think out of the box."Fanell, a former director of Intelligence and Information Operations of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, is correct. Americans make assumptions about the Chinese style of warfare; some of those assumptions are almost certainly wrong.
*Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China, a Gatestone Institute distinguished senior fellow, and a member of its Advisory Board.
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Oil and Elections… Have US Actions Backfired?
Salman Al-Dossary/Asharq Al-Awsat/October, 17/2022
Days ago, Riyadh sent Washington, through a foreign ministry statement, a strongly-worded message firmly pushing back against claims that the OPEC+ decision reflects a position on international conflicts. The statement also stressed that the decision was unanimous and taken on economic grounds, as it aimed to create a balance in supply and demand and to limit volatility. Most importantly, it made crystal clear who is using oil as a political tool and who is committed to safeguarding the interests of both producers and consumers. The rest of the story is well known; we all saw how the actions of the US backfired.
Saudi Arabia, as well as other countries, have made clear (and continue to do so) to the US administration the importance of their relationship and shared interests, that Saudi Arabia cannot exploit economic issues for political ends, and that the Kingdom cannot be on one faction’s side, seeking to improve the victory chances of the other side. Indeed, Riyadh gives its relationship with Washington full attention and sees it as pivotal, but it cannot be prioritized at the expense of Saudi interests. The Kingdom has expressed its point of view candidly and clearly, and it did the right thing with its reasonable stance regarding the demand for postponing cuts in oil production.
This stance was taken first for well-established economic reasons and second because the request had been a political trap that the Kingdom averted wisely and firmly, without niceties. One matter that has been kept quiet about and should be prioritized in discussions is the constant and continuous US assault on oil prices, which is intended to conceal its unprecedented destabilizing actions to manipulate gas markets. This was exposed by one of its allies, French President Emanuel Macron, when he said: We are going to say with great friendship toward our American friends, our Norwegian friends, that 'you are great, you provide us with gas.' But there is one thing that can't work for a very long time, that is we can't pay for gas that is four times more expensive."Let me tell you the story chronologically. It has already been reported, and it is well-known. However, it is a complex issue, and the story has been told in bits and pieces. That is why I have connected this scattered series of events together to clarify what happened- what the Democrats do not want to say clearly… at least from my point of view as a journalist.
First and foremost, although it is a purely economic question, its foundations are political. Since the Biden administration made the issue of climate a top priority, all the countries of the West have become excessively concerned with the matter and have been discussing it passionately.
The implications of this have accumulated, leading to an end to investments in fracking, with countries like Britain, for example, having halted investments in petroleum before reversing this decision recently. With this wave of enthusiasm for the climate, countries “that have other resources like coal and gas” went back to using them. Nonetheless, no one presents these developments in the same way that they put forward questions regarding oil, and this is where the secret games of the media come into play… It is one of the reasons why coal has made a strong comeback in Britain and why the United States has gone back to gas- despite the fact that coal is particularly bad for the environment; rather, it is worse than oil. Through the concerted efforts of the members of OPEC+, oil markets have been kept stable; in fact, oil is the only commodity that did see significant price rises. Prices are stable and transparent, and we should always keep in mind that an organization (OPEC+) is managing this market successfully, preventing shocks or disasters for the global economy. In fact, it has succeeded, to a large extent, in ensuring balance and stability in the markets. Meanwhile, no similar organization does the same for gas or coal, for example, leading prices to spike unfathomably, rising to multiples of what they had been. Of course, when it comes to this question, no one is willing to point fingers and assign blame.
With the latest cuts made around two years ago, US President Donald Trump personally contacted the president of Mexico and asked him to cut his county’s share and to push for a general agreement and meeting of OPEC+; the goal was to protect US interests. The question here is: why are gas and coal prices so high? The direct answer: because of supply shortages and the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. The US administration does not want to recognize the first segment so that it can exploit the second.
We should always remember that the petroleum market was politicized because it is successful, despite the fact that OPEC has always worked to safeguard the interests of both consumers and producers, as well as to protect investments and balance supply with the demands of the market. It creates a balance that serves producers so they can continue producing, and it serves consumers by making prices balanced and averting volatility. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman confirmed this matter recently, stressing that OPEC+ is committed to safeguarding the interests of both producers and consumers and that it will continue to fulfill its duty on the markets. He added that OPEC+ will remain a pivotal guarantor of the global economy’s stability and that its recent steps had been taken out of necessity- not only for OPEC+ members but all oil-exporting countries.
Oil prices, with all the clamor that comes with them, remain temporary. Saudi Arabia has a fixed, sovereign position. It takes its decisions independently, as was apparent in the strongly-worded statement. Most importantly… and this is something many seem unaware of, what is happening with oil markets is only one of many issues and political stances, but the others are not usually discussed publicly. In the end, Saudi Arabia has demonstrated, as it does every time, that it alone can tolerate attacks and false accusations like none of its opponents can, despite the fact that its stance is 100 percent correct.

Why Iran’s ethnic minorities are bearing the brunt of violent regime crackdown on protests
Lucas Chapman/Arab News/October 17/2022
RAQQA, SYRIA: Mahsa Amini, or Jina Amini, the name of a Kurdish woman killed by the Iranian morality police on Sept. 16, has echoed across social media in support of the protest movement that is posing the biggest challenge to the clerical rulers in years.
To Iranian law enforcement, Amini was just a nameless member of an ethnic minority that has been oppressed for decades. Little did they know that her death at the hands of one of its units would spark a massive uprising with the potential to topple the regime itself.
On Sept. 13, the 22-year-old Amini was arrested in Tehran — allegedly for failing to wear a veil properly, which is mandatory in Iran. Her brother, whom she had visited, was told she would be taken to a detention center and released after an hour. Two hours later, she was in a coma.
Three days later, she was dead.
Though the Iranian regime reported that she died from pre-existing medical conditions, leaked testimonies from her co-detainees and CT scans show that she was severely beaten and suffered a skull fracture and brain hemorrhage.
The death of Amini immediately sparked a massive wave of protests across Iran. Civil unrest erupted throughout the country, from the western Kurdistan (or Kordestan) province, of which Amini was a native, to central Iran and Sistan and Balochistan province in the south.
According to an activist in Kurdistan, who wished to remain anonymous for security reasons, the protests began as Amini’s body was buried.
“People started chanting the Kurdish slogan of ‘Women, life, freedom,’ and many other nationalistic slogans during her burial ceremony. Later they took the streets of the city and gathered in front of the governor’s office,” he told Arab News.
Within hours, protests spread to other cities in the province, and on Sept. 18, the entire region went on strike, closing their shops and taking to the streets in protest. Within days, the protests spread nationwide.
The ongoing crackdown on those who do not fall into line with the Iranian regime, while the bloodiest in decades, is simply the culmination of decades of oppressive treatment of minority groups by Iranian authorities.
Chapter 2, Article 15 of the Iranian constitution allows for the teaching of regional and tribal languages in schools and their use in the media. Chapter 3, Article 19 states that “all people of Iran, whatever the ethnic group or tribe to which they belong, enjoy equal rights.”
Despite supposed constitutional protection and the fact that non-Persian ethnic and linguistic groups make up nearly 40 percent of Iran’s population, minorities have been subjected to mistreatment, from political discrimination to oppression, by means of arbitrary arrest and execution.
Kurds are the third-largest ethnic group in Iran, making up approximately 10 percent of the population. Various estimates place their numbers at around 40 million, spread across Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey.
“The situation is so bad in Kurdistan that I don’t know where to start,” the activist said.
“Our people suffer the worst things that are beyond imagination for people from other countries. Kurds are considered third-class citizens in Iran. First, because we are Kurds; second, because we are non-Shiite Muslims or practice other Kurdish religions; and, third, because of our opposition to the central government.”
The activist continued: “We are deprived of our very basic rights as human beings. Kurdish language and Kurdish parties are banned from the system. Kurdish cities suffer from extreme poverty and unemployment which is the result of Iran’s discriminatory policies against Kurds.
“Kurdistan enjoys the least amount of development, and Kurdish society has paid a high price for the official marginalization.”
Iran’s Kurds have suffered since 1979; Kurdish parties in Iran boycotted the March 1979 referendum to create the Islamic Republic of Iran, and have been paying the price for it ever since.
Iranian intelligence has persecuted Kurds even outside its jurisdiction. In 1989, a Kurdish politician and leader of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan was assassinated in Germany.
His successor and three other Kurdish opposition figures were also killed three years later, and no fewer than 10 Iranian Kurdish dissidents have been assassinated outside Iran since 1989.
Though the current wave of unrest began in Kurdistan with the death of a Kurdish woman, the Iranian regime’s persecution of minority groups has spread beyond the Kurdish minority.
In May 2022, a wave of protests against deteriorating economic conditions swept Iran, and a spike in executions came in its wake. However, minority groups were disproportionately targeted by security forces, according to the human rights organization Iran Human Rights, or IHRNGO.
The Baloch people, a primarily Sunni Muslim group that inhabits the southern region of Baluchistan in Iran, make up only two percent of the population.
It has long suffered from economic underdevelopment, having both the lowest Human Development Index and gross national income per capita of all of Iran’s provinces, according to 2019 statistics from Netherlands-based Global Data Lab. Despite this, they have been subjected to egregious human rights violations.
A June report by IHRNGO stated that executions reached their five-year peak in Iran this year. The number has jumped from 110 in all of 2021 to 168 in the first six months of 2022 alone. Arab, Kurdish, and Baloch minorities made up the majority of executions, with Baloch prisoners accounting for 22 percent of executed people.
Arabs, too, comprise around two percent of Iran’s people, and have faced oppression and discrimination. Most of them reside in the Khuzestan province, which is rich in oil resources and a major industrial hub.
FASTFACTS
* Ethnic Persians account for 60% of Iran’s 86.7 million inhabitants.
* Ethnic Azeri, Kurd, Lur, Baloch, Arab, Turkmen and Turkic tribes make up the rest.
Despite this, the province suffers from widespread poverty and unemployment, according to Arab MP Mohammad Saeed Ansari, who claimed that around half of oil workers are brought in from outside the province and that Arabs are often denied employment opportunities there.
The UK-based Minority Rights Group International reported that nearly a quarter of a million Arabs in Khuzestan have been displaced by large government infrastructure projects.
The leader of an Arab separatist movement in Iran, Ahmed Molla Nissi, was assassinated in front of his home in The Hague in 2017, adding to the long list of foreign assassinations of minority dissidents by Iran.
In July 2021, at least nine people were killed in Khuzestan as they protested, demanding access to clean water, according to Human Rights Watch.
Amid the current unrest, protests have broken out in Khuzestan, with many oil and petrochemical facilities on strike and their workers taking to the streets. On Oct. 12, a video shared on Twitter reportedly showed a giant banner depicting Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s picture being set ablaze in Ahvaz, the provincial capital.
“Arab citizens live as the poorest people on the richest land — Khuzestan. This is the official name that it was given, but this place is Arabistan or Ahwaz,” Youssef Yaseen Azizi, an Arab Iranian former administrator at Tehran University and a member of the Iranian Writers’ Union, told Arab News.
“During the time of the Shah and the Islamic Republic, they brought non-Arabs to the region and settled them in the Arab cities and villages.”
Azizi believes the regime has deliberately forced Arabs and other minorities out of public life in Iran.
“Arabs only occupy around 5 percent of positions in public institutions,” he told Arab News. “The Arabic language is forbidden in schools. Many Arabs cannot find employment in the petrochemical factories simply because their name is Arabic.
“It has reached the level that they can openly say, ‘I will not employ you because you are Arab.’ Ali Khameini’s oil company in Ahwaz has hired 4,000 workers in the last ten years, and only seven of them were Arabs.”
Such attitudes might suggest Arab lives in Iran are considered cheap.
“Arabs have rebelled many times, and often ended up in prison, or were killed,” Azizi told Arab News. “We were always oppressed by the brutality of the authorities. Just 10 days ago, Emad Heydari was tortured to death in prison in Ahvaz.”
According to the website of the Ahwazi Democratic Popular Front, 31-year-old Heydari — a newly married activist from the Malashieh region — was arrested on Sept. 27 and died in prison on Oct. 6. Iranian authorities said he had suffered a stroke. Activists are unconvinced by the official narrative.
“During the 2019 protests against the increasing price of fuel, which started from the Ahwaz Arabs and spread from there, 200 Arabs were killed. They didn’t show Arabs any mercy,” Azizi told Arab News.
“The Arab press and civil society must know what is happening to us and cover it daily. They must speak on all channels and in all of their books and meetings, and support us, because we are alone. Until now, there is no channel which has covered our pain and showed it to everyone. But our resistance will continue.”The disproportionate targeting of minority communities during the current civil unrest in Iran mirrors its past treatment of minorities. Kurdistan and Sistan and Balochistan have been subjected to the most outstanding amount of violence, according to the Critical Threats Project, an intelligence analysis project created by the American Enterprise Institute in 2009.
Two weeks after Amini’s death, a group of protestors gathered after Friday prayers in the Baloch-majority city of Zahedan to show their support for the nationwide protests and demand justice for the alleged sexual assault of a 15-year-old Baloch girl by an Iranian police commander.
Amnesty International reported that Iranian security forces opened fire on the crowd with tear gas and live ammunition, with footage showing shooters on roofs aiming at demonstrators. Between 66 and 96 people were killed and hundreds more injured in the course of just hours of what has come to be known as “Bloody Friday.”
The New York Times has since spoken with 10 residents from Zahedan, including witnesses and activists; family members of the victims; and a medic who helped treat more than 150 people for wounds.
All made the accusation that security forces fired indiscriminately on unarmed protesters and civilians with bullets and tear gas. Helicopters were also deployed, according to witnesses.
“According to residents, the violence on Sept. 30 was preceded by a smaller demonstration two days earlier, in another city in the same province, Chabahar,” the US newspaper said in a report on Oct. 14.
The Iranian regime’s heavy-handed treatment of ethnic-minority areas has only intensified as the protest movement has expanded to include broader calls for an end to conservative theocratic rule.
“I call on the international community to put more effort on recognizing our issues and help us solve them,” the Kurdistan-based activist told Arab News.
“Today the people of Kurdistan and Iran need full support to overthrow this regime.”
The forgotten Arabs of Iran
A century ago, the autonomous sheikhdom of Arabistan was absorbed by force into the Persian state. Today the Arabs of Ahwaz are Iran's most persecuted minority

A new era of paramilitary supremacy in Iraq
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/October 17/2022
Iraq has a new prime minister, and his name is Nouri Al-Maliki.
The actual occupant of the post, Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani, is a nobody with zero parliamentary support who is entirely beholden to those who placed him in power. There are excellent reasons why hundreds of thousands of Iraqis brought Baghdad to a halt in August over Al-Sudani’s candidacy.
In 2010, when Al-Maliki was prime minister, he appointed Al-Sudani minister of human rights — at a time when there were no human rights to administer. During this black phase of Iraq’s history, Al-Maliki co-opted militia forces such as Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq, the Mukhtar Army and the Imam Ali Brigades to embark on bloody sectarian purges and to assassinate journalists, activists and political opponents. Al-Maliki weaponized the judiciary against his enemies and purged Sunni fighters who had risked their lives combating terrorist groups.
As chairman of the commission for de-Baathification, Al-Sudani assisted Al-Maliki in purging hundreds of Sunnis and political rivals from administrative roles. The Iraqi Commission of Integrity estimated that $500 billion was corruptly siphoned off from the Iraqi budget during Al-Maliki’s tenure, much of which went toward funding paramilitary violence.
Such were the industrial-scale crimes against human rights and interfaith coexistence on Al-Maliki and Al-Sudani’s watch that, in 2014, Iraq disintegrated altogether and much of the country became a playground for the twin plagues of Daesh and Al-Hashd Al-Sha’abi militias, which took crimes against humanity to entirely new levels of horror and cruelty.
As prime minister, Al-Sudani (a long-standing member of Al-Maliki’s Dawa party) will be solely accountable to Al-Maliki and his paramilitary Hashd allies who brought Iraq back to the brink of civil war in their dogged efforts to secure his candidacy.
A large part of the blame for this disaster for Iraqi democracy lies at the door of Muqtada Al-Sadr, who until recently had the single largest bloc in parliament. Had Al-Sadr possessed a degree of patience and political acumen, he could have overcome the Hashd’s blocking efforts and reached an understanding with the Kurds, Sunnis and independents to form a government. Instead, he threw the mother of all political tantrums, pulled his supporters out of parliament and allowed the Hashd to acquire most of the seats he vacated.
It initially seemed as if Al-Sadr possessed a winning strategy, as he flooded the Green Zone with his supporters in a bid to block Al-Sudani’s candidature and force early elections. However, he then staged one of the most humiliating climbdowns in modern political history after Tehran coerced Al-Sadr’s theological superior, Ayatollah Kadhim Al-Haeri, into withdrawing his support.
With both Al-Sudani and Rashid such weak and malleable figures, it is clear who is intended to govern Iraq next
We should not discount the extreme levels of bad blood between Al-Maliki and the Sadrists, which at times has escalated into assassinations and bloodletting among each other’s foot soldiers. In July, a recording was leaked in which Al-Maliki, among other insults, denounced Al-Sadr as “a hateful Zionist.” Temporarily reduced to enraged impotence, Al-Sadr is probably biding his time so that his next move inflicts maximum damage on an Al-Maliki-brokered administration.
Blame for this debacle also lies with the Kurdish and Sunni political factions. They know very well that Al-Maliki and the Hashd have hostile anti-democratic ambitions for Iraq, but they have allowed themselves to be divided and bought off cheaply at the cost of Iraq’s sovereignty. While the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan jostle over trivial appointments, they risk losing Iraq altogether.
Former President Barham Salih was widely seen as a trusted pair of hands. His successor, Abdul Latif Rashid — an independent Kurd whose main claim to fame is having once been water resources minister — will struggle to emerge from Salih’s shadow. With both Al-Sudani and Rashid such weak and malleable figures, it is clear who is intended to govern Iraq next. However, Al-Sudani is already struggling to put together a Cabinet, amid reports of fierce rivalry between Hashd faction leaders over who gets to benefit from key posts.
With the Hashd hemorrhaging popular support over the past year, Tehran worries about the future electability of its Iraqi puppets. Hence, plotting is certainly already afoot for how the next elections can be undermined — either by preventing them occurring at all or by seeking to dominate the aftermath.
The worst fears for Iraq are being realized and matters are set to deteriorate as militias seek to reinforce their already unwieldy presence at every level of this administration in order to exact control and extract every last corrupt dinar of public money. Outgoing Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi had acted as a vital bulwark against Hashd preeminence. Over the coming weeks, watch these militias make a bonfire of his legacy.
Yet, at this moment of apparent victory, these Hashd militias are looking nervously over their shoulders. To the east of Iraq, for the past five weeks a nationwide uprising has been gaining momentum. Tens of thousands of brave Iranian girls and women are burning their hijabs and calling for the downfall of the hated ayatollahs and Revolutionary Guard commanders who control the Hashd.
The Iraqi Hashd and all Iran’s other client militias are living on borrowed time. Maybe not this year, but sometime soon, enough courageous Iranians will take to the streets to erase their hated tyrant regime once and for all.
At that moment, the Hashd, Hezbollah and the Houthis should ensure that their bags are packed and plane tickets purchased; because once their Iranian masters have been vanquished, nobody will be there to protect them from public wrath for the damage they have wreaked upon their respective homelands’ sovereignty, stability and identity.
*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.

Ongoing Iran protests are the most dangerous in regime’s history
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/October 17, 2022
Since the theocratic regime in Iran seized power more than 43 years ago, it has faced successive massive waves of popular protests. Some of these protests were relatively minor, while others were more significant, ranging from the protests in 1999 to those in 2009, 2017, 2019, 2021 and 2022. All of these protests have revealed an underlying legitimacy crisis for the regime that has been growing and developing since its inception — a crisis caused by failed domestic policies and extraterritorial misadventures.
Though each wave of protest has its own specific reasons, motivations and contexts, some common factors can be identified. The first factor is political, which is shaped by widespread public dissatisfaction with the regime and its exclusionary policies toward women, non-Persian minorities and non-Shiite groups.
The second factor is socioeconomic, with extensive corruption, deteriorating living conditions and injustice fueling popular resentment.
The third factor is that sectarian and ethnic differences have been transcended in all the waves of protests. This reflects widespread rejection of and dissatisfaction with the regime’s policies, as well as widespread opposition to the authoritarian guardian jurist’s policies among Iran’s ethnic groups and other religious sects.
The fourth factor is the escalation and evolution of the demands. Regardless of the immediate causes of the protests, demands quickly escalate, with slogans chanted directly against the regime and all its components. For example, even if the protests start in opposition to the regime’s economic policies or the economic recession in the country, they quickly shift to political demands such as regime change, with the slogan “Death to the dictator” — a reference to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — heard chanted in many protests.
The 2022 protests are thought to be the most diverse and are the first ever to reflect elite-masses harmony
The fifth factor, with the exception of the 2009 “Green Movement” protests led by Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, all the waves of protests have shared a lack of leadership. Given the influence and power of Mousavi and Karroubi within Iran, this could be one of the main reasons why the other protests have not been as impactful or imposed as much pressure on the regime as those in 2009. Leadership is always a crucial factor in organizing protests, targeting those regions that pose the greatest threat to the regime and even focusing and narrowing demands and turning them into levers to put pressure on the regime’s decision-making process.
In all of Iran's protest waves, the regime has prioritized the deployment of its brutal security apparatus as its automatic go-to solution to quell the protests by the exercise of brute force. In addition, the regime limits internet access and even promotes conspiracy theories and allegations about separatist demands to justify the use of excessive force and facilitate the crackdown on protesters. However, this approach has had the opposite effect to the desired aim, fueling popular discontent to the point of motivating further protests.
The duration of Iranian protest waves varies. The 1999 protests lasted seven days, whereas those in 2017 and 2021 each lasted 11 days. Meanwhile, the ongoing protests have lasted nearly a month, the longest period so far. They began on a massive scale but have gradually shrunk in size. There is a gradual increase in the length of the protests, bringing bigger consequences for the regime.
When compared to previous waves, the 2022 protests are considered the most widespread, involving 85 cities, followed by the 2021 protests, which spread across 80. The 2017 protests, which included nearly 60 cities, come in third. Furthermore, the 2022 protests are thought to be the most diverse and inclusive in terms of participating factions and are the first ever to reflect elite-masses harmony. On a larger scale than in previous protests, the general public has marched alongside university professors, students, artists, athletes, pundits and political activists. The elites, far removed from ordinary Iranians’ concerns, were the primary catalysts for the 1999 and 2009 protests, while the 2019 protests were mostly grassroots-oriented, with no intervention from the elites.
For all their extremely well-founded fears of repression and killing, Iranians have increased their chanting of anti-regime slogans from the windows of their homes during the 2022 protests. More importantly, there has been an increase in female participation, with many girls and women cutting their hair or removing their mandatory veil — and, in some cases, burning them. Even schoolgirls have pictured themselves making rude, one-fingered gestures at images of Khamenei. The protests have sent a very direct demand: The removal of Khamenei and the downfall of the so-called Islamic Republic as a whole.
The current wave of protests is especially significant because it is taking place during a sensitive period. The Iranian people are more filled with rage than during previous rounds of protests. Observers describe the anger seen in Iran as having reached “boiling point, and they could spiral into a popular explosion.” The protests also began amid a stalemate in Vienna, with this delay in reaching a nuclear agreement implying that the imposition of sanctions is likely to continue, resulting in the further deterioration of already abysmal living conditions, which is also a key cause of the protests spreading to Iranian cities. As a result, the protests are likely to recur or continue intermittently.
This stage also comes during the reign of hard-liner President Ebrahim Raisi, a cleric regarded as being among the most fanatical of those who took control of Iran. We must not forget that he was a member of the infamous “death committee” that oversaw the executions of thousands of political prisoners in 1988. His radical stance was again visible in his use of the word “decisiveness” when ordering the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and, for the first time, Iran’s army to use force against the protesters. This excessive use of force will lead to further rage, especially given the existing popular dissatisfaction with the regime’s support for Raisi to become the next supreme leader.
In a nutshell, it appears that the decreasing time span between the last four major waves of protests — one or two years between each wave, in comparison to the decade-long timespan between the previous three waves — sounds the alarm bell about the future of Iran’s clerical regime. This escalating level of rage and discontent could ultimately lead to a popular uprising (a “big bang”) in Iran as a result of the regime’s policies.
To survive, the regime needs to reconsider its policies and change its behavior at home and abroad. It needs to cease its absurd extraterritorial misadventures and save the people’s resources that it provides to political and military proxy actors overseas in exchange for running the machine of its subversive project.
*Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is president of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami