English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 13/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.october13.22.htm

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Bible Quotations For today
The Fruitless Fig Tree Parable
Luke 13/06-09: “Then Jesus told this parable: ‘A man had a fig tree planted in his vineyard; and he came looking for fruit on it and found none. So he said to the gardener, “See here! For three years I have come looking for fruit on this fig tree, and still I find none. Cut it down! Why should it be wasting the soil?” He replied, “Sir, let it alone for one more year, until I dig round it and put manure on it. If it bears fruit next year, well and good; but if not, you can cut it down.” ’

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 12-13/2022
In Remembrance Of The October 13/1990 Massacre/Elias Bejjani/October 13/2022
Full text of Israel-Lebanon maritime border deal
Biden: Maritime Demarcation Deal between Lebanon, Israel is Historic Breakthrough
Blinken hails 'transformative power of American diplomacy' in demarcation deal
Shea says gas deal sets stage for 'more prosperous and stable Lebanon'
EU welcomes maritime boundary agreement between Lebanon and Israel
Israeli Security Cabinet OKs Lebanon maritime border deal
President Aoun meets Visual Professions’ Syndicate delegation, says completing demarcation agreement will pull Lebanon out of the abyss
Berri tackles developments with Mikati, broaches legislative, developmental affairs with lawmakers
Mikati meets French, Russian Ambassadors, chairs financial, environmental and health meetings, receives Sovereign Front for Lebanon...
PSP: Border demarcation deal with Israel does not mean normalization of relations
Army Commander meets Iraqi Defense Minister
Presidential vote: Latest developments ahead of Oct.13 session
Fayyad says Iran preparing treaty for fuel oil grant
Lebanese Business Leaders Association (RDCL) organizes round table entitled “Unlocking Lebanon’s Agriculture Potential”
Israel trades gas fields for a line of buoys/Tony Badran/ Al Arabiya/October 12/2022 |
Former US point man on Israel-Lebanon maritime, David Schenker talks says chances of war remain high, even with a deal/Mike Wagenheim/INS/October 12/2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 12-13/2022
Biden vows 'consequences' for Saudis after OPEC+ cuts output
Louvre Abu Dhabi marks five years with major Impressionism show
Iranians keep up protests over Mahsa Amini death despite mounting
Iran supreme leader says 'enemies' involved in protests
Iranian President Vows Vengeance Against 'Architects of Conspiracy'
IRGC Prepares for Ground Operations in Iraqi Kurdistan
NATO cautious to avoid war, struggles with dual challenges
Russian nuclear strike in Ukraine would 'almost certainly' trigger a military response from Kyiv's partners: senior NATO official
Russia protests over Japan's firing of HIMARS in exercise with U.S
Russia Arrests 8 People Over Involvement in Crimea Bridge Bombing
Ukraine Recaptures 5 Settlements in Kherson Region
Putin says 'ball in EU court' on restarting Nord Stream deliveries

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 12-13/2022
Are Muslim ‘Officials’ Denying Persecuted Christians Refuge in Europe?/Raymond Ibrahim/October 12/2022
The Women vs. the Mullahs/Bernard-Henri/The Tablet/October 12/2022
Palestinians' New Enemy: British Prime Minister Liz Truss/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute./October 12, 2022
Communist China's Belt and Road Initiative Trashing the Environment/Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/October 12, 2022
Insight into As-Suwayda’s Position in the Syrian Situation/Ishtar Al Shami/Fikra Forum/The Washington Institute/October 12/2022
The SDF Is Caught Between Turkey and the Islamic State Again/Ido Levy/The Washington Institute/October 12/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 12-13/2022
In Remembrance Of The October 13/1990 Massacre
Elias Bejjani/October 13/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/112651/elias-bejjani-in-remembrance-of-the-october-13-1990-massacre/
For our fallen heroes who gave themselves in sacrifice at the altar of Lebanon on October 13/1990, we pray and make the pledge of living with our heads high, so that Lebanon remains the homeland of dignity and pride, the message of truth, the cradle of civility and giving, and the crucible of culture and civilizations.
There is no shed of doubt, as we learn from our deeply rooted history, that the Patriotic and faithful Lebanese who has God by his side, whose weapon is the truth, and whose faith is like the rock, shall never be vanquished.
On October 13, 1990, the Barbarian Syrian Army, jointly with evil local armed mercenaries savagely attacked and occupied the Lebanese presidential palace, savagely invaded the last remaining free regions of Lebanon, killed and mutilated hundreds of Lebanese soldiers and innocent citizens in cold blooded murder, kidnapped tens of soldiers, officers, clergymen, politicians and citizens, and erected a subservient and puppet regime fully controlled by its security intelligence headquarters in Damascus. 
It is worth mentioning that in year 2005 the Syrian Army was forced to withdraw from Lebanon in accordance with the UNSC Resolution 1559, but sadly since that date, the Iranian proxy, the terrorist Hezbollah armed militia has been occupying Lebanon, and by force controlling fully it governing decision making process.
The terrorist Hezbollah, by crime, wars, terrorism, impoverishment, dismantling all government and private institutions is hindering the Lebanese people from reclaiming their independence, freedom, sovereignty, and turning Lebanon into an Iranian battle field for Iranian evil schemes and wars.. The Terrorist Hezbollah Militia is the Syrian-Iranian spearhead of the axis of evil.
We must never forget that on October 13/1990 the Lebanese presidential Palace in Baabda and all the free regions were desecrated by the horde of Syrian Baathist gangs, Mafiosi, militias, and other corrupt mercenaries of Tamerlane invaders vintage.
The soldiers of our valiant army were tortured and butchered in the cities and villages of Bsous, Aley, Kahale, and other bastions of resistance. Lebanese most precious of possessions, their freedom, was raped in broad daylight, while the free world, and all the Arab countries at that time watched in silence.
Remembering the Massacre won’t pass without wiping the tears of sorrow and pain for those beloved ones, who left this world, and others who emigrated to its far-flung corners. Lifetime of hard work of many citizens was wiped out overnight, villages and towns were destroyed, factories closed, fields made lay fallow and dry and children lost their innocence.
Yet we, the patriotic and faithful Lebanese are a tough and hopeful people, and no matter the sacrifices and the pain, we are today even more determined with our strong faith to redeem our freedom, and bring to justice all those who accepted to be the dirty tools of the conspiracy that has been destroying, humiliating, and tormenting our country since 1976.
Meanwhile the lessons of October 13/1990, are many and they are all glorious. The free of our people, civilians and military, ordinary citizens and leaders, all stood tall and strong in turning back the aggression of the barbarians at the gate. They resisted valiantly and courageously, writing with their own blood long epics that will not be soon forgotten by their children and grandchildren, and other students of history. They refused to sign on an agreement of surrender and oppression, and spoke up against the shame of capitulation.
Today on the commemoration of the Syrian invasion to Lebanon’s free regions, we shall pray for the souls of all those Lebanese comrades who fell in the battles of confrontation, for all our citizens who are still arbitrarily detained in Syria’s notorious jails, for the safe and dignified return of our refugees from Israel, for the return of peace to the homeland, and for the repentance of Lebanon’s leaders and politicians who for personal gains have turned against their own people, negated their declared convictions, downtrodden their freedom and liberation slogans, sided with the Axis of evil (Syria, Iran) and forged an alliance with Hezbollah whose ultimate aim is to replicate the Iranian Mullahs’ regime in Lebanon.
But in spite of the Syrian military withdrawal from Lebanon in year 2005, old and new Syrian-made Lebanese puppets continue to trade demagogy and spread incitement, profiting from people’s economic needs and the absence of the state’s law and order. Thanks to the Iranian petro dollars, their consciences are numbed, and their bank accounts and pockets inflated. Sadly, among those is General Michele Aoun who after his return from exile to Lebanon in 2005 has bizarrely transformed from a staunched patriotic Lebanese leader and advocate for freedom and peace, into a Syrian-Iranian allay, and a loud mouthpiece for their axis of evil schemes and conspiracies.
General Aoun like the rest of the pro-Syrian-Iranian Lebanese politicians and leaders care only for his position, family members, personal interests, and greed.
In the eyes of the patriotic Lebanese, Aoun and the rest of those conscienceless creatures are nothing but robots and dirty instruments bent on Lebanon’s destabilization, blocking the return of peace and order to the country, aborting the mission of the international forces, and the UN security council (UNSC) resolutions, in particular resolutions 1559 and 1701.
They are hired by the axis of evil nations and organizations to keep our homeland, the land of the Holy Cedars, an arena and a backyard for “The Wars of the Others”, a base for chaos and a breeding culture for hatred, terrorism, hostility and fundamentalism.
Our martyrs, the living and dead alike, must be rolling in anger in their graves and in the Syrian Baath dungeons, as they witness these leaders today, especially General Michele Aoun, upon whom they laid their hope, fall into the gutter of cheap politics.
General Aoun reversed all his theses and slogans and joined the same powers that invaded the free Lebanon region on October 13, 1990. He selectively had forgotten who he is, and who his people are, and negated everything he advocated and lobbied for.
In this year’s commemoration, we proudly hail and remember the passing and disappearance of hundreds of our people, civilian, military, and religious personnel who gladly sacrificed themselves on Lebanon’s altar in defense of freedom, dignity and identity ... We raise our prayers for the rest of their souls, and for the safe return of all our prisoners held arbitrarily in the dungeons of the Syrian Baath.
We ask for consolation to all their families, hoping that their grand sacrifices were not in vain, now that prominent leaders and politicians of that era changed sides and joined the killers after the liberation of the country. Those Pharisees were in positions of responsibility to safeguard the nation and its dignity, and were entrusted to defend the identity, the homeland and the beliefs.
What truly saddens us is the continuing suffering of our refugees in Israel since 2000, despite all the recent developments. This is due to the stark servitude of those Lebanese Leaders and politicians on whom we held our hopes for a courageous resolution to this humane problem. Instead, they shed their responsibilities and voided the cause from its humane content, and furthermore, in order to satisfy their alliances with fundamentalists and radicals, they betrayed their own people and the cause of Lebanon by agreeing to label our heroic southern refugees as criminals.
Our refugees in Israel are the ultimate Lebanese patriots who did no wrong, but who simply suffered for 30 years trying to defend their land, their homes, their children and their dignity against Syria and the hordes of Islamic fundamentalists, outlaw Palestinian militias, and even renegade battalions of the Lebanese Army itself that seceded from the government to fight alongside the outlaw organizations and militias against Lebanon, the Lebanese State and the Lebanese people.
God Bless the Souls Of Our Martyrs
Long Live Lebanon

Full text of Israel-Lebanon maritime border deal
Naharnet/Wednesday, 12 October, 2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/112672/%d9%86%d8%b5-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d8%b3%d8%ae%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d9%87%d8%a7%d8%a6%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d9%84%d8%a3%d8%aa%d9%81%d8%a7%d9%82%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%b3%d9%8a%d9%85-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ad/
Several Lebanese TV networks on Wednesday published the final Arabic-language text of the sea border demarcation agreement submitted by U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein to Lebanon and Israel. Israel’s Haaretz newspaper has meanwhile published the English-language text of the deal.
Below is the full English-language text as published by Haaretz:
“[Excellency], I have the honor to write you in the context of the negotiations to delineate the maritime boundary between the Republic of Lebanon and the State of Israel (hereinafter: collectively the “Parties” and individually a “Party”).
On September 29, 2020, the United States of America sent both Parties a letter (Attachment 1) to which it attached six points that reflected its understanding of the terms of reference for such negotiations, including the request of both Parties for the United States to serve as mediator and facilitator for the delineation of the maritime boundary between the Parties, and the mutual understanding of both Parties that “when the delineation is finally agreed, the maritime boundary agreement will be deposited with the United Nations.”
Further to that letter, meetings were held under the hosting of the staff of the Office of the United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon (“UNSCOL”) at Naqoura, and, in addition, the United States conducted subsequent consultations with each Party. Following these discussions, it is the understanding of the United States, that the Parties intend to meet in the near future at Naqoura under the hosting of the staff of UNSCOL in a meeting facilitated by the United States. The United States further understands [Lebanon/Israel] is prepared to establish its permanent maritime boundary, and conclude a permanent and equitable resolution regarding its maritime dispute with [Israel/Lebanon], and accordingly agrees to the following terms provided that the following is also accepted by [Israel/Lebanon]:
SECTION 1
A. The Parties agree to establish a maritime boundary line (the “MBL”). The delimitation of the MBL consists of the following points described by the coordinates below. These points, in WGS84 datum, are connected by geodesic lines:
Latitude: 33° 06′ 34.15″ N Longitude 35° 02′ 58.12″
Latitude E 33° 06′ 52.73″ N Longitude 35° 02′ 13.86″ E 3
Latitude 3° 10′ 19.33″ N Longitude 34° 52′ 57.24″ E
Latitude 33° 31′ 51.17″ N Longitude 33° 46′ 8.78″ E
B. These coordinates define the maritime boundary as agreed between the Parties for all points seaward of the easternmost point of the MBL, and without prejudice to the status of the land boundary. In order not to prejudice the status of the land boundary, the maritime boundary landward of the easternmost point of the MBL is expected to be delimited in the context of, or in a timely manner after, the Parties’ demarcation of the land boundary. Until such time this area is delimited, the Parties agree that the status quo near the shore, including along and as defined by the current buoy line, remains the same, notwithstanding the differing legal positions of the Parties in this area, which remains undelimited.
C. Each Party shall simultaneously submit a communication containing the list of geographical coordinates for the delimitation of the MBL described in paragraph A of this Section (“UN communications”) in the form attached for each of the Parties (Annex A and Annex B) to the Secretary General of the United Nations on the day of the communication by the United States described in Section 4(B). The Parties shall notify the United States when they have submitted their respective UN communications.
D. The coordinates reflected in each Party’s respective UN communication referred to in Section 1(C) shall supersede (i) the coordinates in the 12 July 2011 submission by Israel to the United Nations with respect to the points labeled 34, 35, and 1 in such submission, and (ii) the chart and coordinates in the 19 October 2011 submission by Lebanon to the United Nations with respect to the points labeled 20, 21, 22, and 23 in such submission. Neither Party shall make a future submission of charts or coordinates to the United Nations that is inconsistent with this Agreement (hereinafter: “Agreement”) unless the Parties have mutually agreed upon the content of such submission.
E. The Parties agree that this Agreement, including as described in Section 1(B), establishes a permanent and equitable resolution of their maritime dispute.
SECTION 2
A. The Parties understand that there is a hydrocarbon prospect of currently unknown commercial viability that exists at least partially in the area the Parties understand to be Lebanon’s Block 9, and at least partially in the area the Parties understand to be Israel’s Block 72, hereinafter referred to as “the Prospect.”
B. Exploration and exploitation of the Prospect shall be carried out in accordance with good petroleum industry practices on conservation of gas to maximize efficient recovery, operational safety, and environmental protection, and shall comply with the applicable laws and regulations in the area.
C. The Parties agree that the relevant legal entity to hold any Lebanese rights to exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbon resources in Lebanon's Block 9 (“Block 9 Operator”) shall consist of one or more reputable, international corporations that are not subject to international sanctions, that would not hinder U.S. continued facilitation, and that are not Israeli or Lebanese corporations. These criteria shall also apply to the selection of any successors or replacements of those corporations.
D. The Parties understand that exploration of the Prospect is expected to begin immediately after this Agreement enters into force. The Parties expect the Block 9 Operator to explore and exploit the Prospect. To do so, the Block 9 Operator will need to transit through some areas south of the MBL. Israel will not object to reasonable and necessary activities, such as navigational maneuvers, that the Block 9 Operator conducts immediately south of the MBL in pursuit of the Block 9 Operator's exploration and exploitation of the Prospect, so long as such activities occur with prior notification by the Block 9 Operator to Israel.
E. The Parties understand that Israel and the Block 9 Operator are separately engaging in discussions to determine the scope of Israel’s economic rights in the Prospect. Israel will be remunerated by the Block 9 Operator for its rights to any potential deposits in the Prospect and to that end, Israel and the Block 9 Operator will sign a financial agreement prior to the Block 9 Operator’s Final Investment Decision (“FID”). Israel shall work with the Block 9 Operator in good faith to ensure that this agreement is resolved in a timely fashion. Lebanon is not responsible for, or party to, any arrangement between the Block 9 Operator and Israel. Any arrangement between the Block 9 Operator and Israel shall not affect Lebanon’s agreement with the Block 9 Operator and the full share of its economic rights in the Prospect. The Parties understand that subject to the start of implementation of the financial agreement, the entire Prospect will then be developed by Lebanon’s Block 9 Operator exclusively for Lebanon, consistent with the terms of this Agreement.
F. Subject to the agreement with the Block 9 Operator, Israel will not exercise any rights to develop hydrocarbon deposits in the Prospect and will not object to, or take any action that unduly delays reasonable activities in pursuit of the development of the Prospect. Israel will not exploit any accumulation or deposit of natural resources, including liquid hydrocarbon, natural gas, or other minerals, extending across the MBL in the Prospect.
G. If drilling of the Prospect is necessary south of the MBL, the Parties expect the Block 9 Operator to request the consent of the Parties in advance of drilling and Israel will not unreasonably withhold such consent for drilling conducted in accordance with the terms of this Agreement.
SECTION 3
A. If there is identification of any other single accumulation or deposit of natural resources, including liquid hydrocarbon, natural gas, or other mineral extending across the MBL other than the Prospect, and if one Party by exploiting that accumulation or deposit would withdraw, deplete, or draw down the portion of the accumulation or deposit that is on the other Party’s side of the MBL, then before the accumulation or deposit is exploited, the Parties intend to request the United States to facilitate between the Parties (including any operators with relevant domestic rights to explore and exploit resources), with a view to reaching an understanding on the allocation of rights and the manner in which the accumulation or deposit may be most effectively explored and exploited.
B. Each Party shall share data on all currently known, and any later identified, cross-MBL resources with the United States, including expecting the relevant operators that operate on either side of the MBL to share such data with the United States. The Parties understand that the United States intends to share this data with the Parties in a timely manner after receipt.
C. Neither Party intends to claim any other single accumulation or deposit of natural resources, including liquid hydrocarbon, natural gas, or other mineral, located entirely on the other Party’s side of the MBL.
D. The Parties understand the U.S. government intends to exert its best efforts and endeavors in order to facilitate Lebanon’s immediate, swift and continuous petroleum activities.
SECTION 4
A. The Parties intend to resolve any differences concerning the interpretation and implementation of this Agreement through discussion facilitated by the United States. The Parties understand that the United States intends to exert its best efforts working with the Parties to help establish and maintain a positive and constructive atmosphere for conducting discussions and successfully resolving any differences as rapidly as possible.
B. This Agreement shall enter into force on the date on which the Government of the United States of America sends a notice, based on the text in Annex D to this letter, in which it confirms that each Party has agreed to the terms herein stipulated. If the foregoing is acceptable to the Government of [Lebanon/Israel] as the final agreed terms between the Parties, the Government of the United States invites the Government of [Lebanon/Israel] to communicate its agreement to these terms by way of a formal written response as provided for in the attached Annex C to this letter.”

Biden: Maritime Demarcation Deal between Lebanon, Israel is Historic Breakthrough
Washington - Heba El Koudsy Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 12 October, 2022
US President Joe Biden has described the conclusion of the maritime demarcation agreement between Lebanon and Israel as a "historic breakthrough," noting that it was the culmination of months of mediation conducted by the US administration. He said on Tuesday he was happy that the governments of Israel and Lebanon would "establish a permanent maritime boundary between them."Biden praised the openness of Israeli and Lebanese leaders for negotiating, consulting, and ultimately choosing what was in the best interests of their people. "I have just spoken with the Prime Minister of Israel, Yair Lapid, and the President of Lebanon, Michel Aoun, who confirmed the readiness of both governments to move forward with this agreement," Biden said in a statement released by the White House. "Energy—particularly in the Eastern Mediterranean—should serve as the tool for cooperation, stability, security, and prosperity, not for conflict," read the statement. It indicated that the agreement announced by both governments would provide for the development of energy fields for the benefit of both countries, setting the stage for a more stable and prosperous region and harnessing vital new energy resources for the world. The US president asserted that it is now critical that all parties uphold their commitments and work towards implementation. The agreement "provides Lebanon the space to begin its own exploitation of energy resources," said Biden, adding that it promotes the interests of the United States and the American people in a more stable, prosperous, and integrated Middle East region, with reduced risks of new conflicts." Biden thanked the US diplomats who acted as mediators between the two sides and hailed French President Emmanuel Macron and his government for their support in these negotiations.

Blinken hails 'transformative power of American diplomacy' in demarcation deal
Naharnet/Wednesday, 12 October, 2022  
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has hailed, in a statement, the "historic breakthrough on the Israel-Lebanon maritime boundary.""This breakthrough promises to usher in a new era of prosperity and stability in the Middle East and will provide vital energy to the people of the region and to the world," Blinken said. He added that "beyond delivering tremendous benefits to the Lebanese and Israeli people", the announcement "demonstrates the power of regional cooperation to meet shared challenges in the Middle East and beyond." "It also underscores the transformative power of American diplomacy," the statement said. Blinken went on to say that this agreement "protects the economic and security interests of Israel and Lebanon and marks a new chapter for the people in the region," as he thanked "the leaders of Israel and Lebanon for their willingness to negotiate in the best interests of their people." "I thank Special Presidential Coordinator Amos Hochstein and his team for their tireless diplomatic work in bringing the parties together to accomplish this deal," he said. "It is now critical that all parties rapidly finalize the agreement and uphold their commitments to work toward implementation to the benefit of the region and world," Blinken added.

Shea says gas deal sets stage for 'more prosperous and stable Lebanon'
Naharnet/Wednesday, 12 October, 2022  
U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea has thanked all Lebanese officials who contributed to reaching a tentative agreement with Israel over the demarcation of the maritime border, saying the deal “sets the stage for a more prosperous and stable Lebanon.”In a video message, Shea expressed to all those involved Washington’s “profound gratitude, starting with President (Michel) Aoun and his team, Speaker (Nabih) Berri and his principal adviser, and Prime Minister(-designate Najib) Mikati.”“There are many others in the government who also played constructive roles in these negotiations, too many to mention by name, but I will single out the deputy speaker of parliament (Elias Bou Saab) for his tireless efforts,” Shea added. The ambassador said the agreement will “provide for the development of energy fields for the benefit of both countries.” “Your country can look forward to harnessing vital new energy resources. This sets the stage for a more prosperous and stable Lebanon,” she added. Shea also said that the agreement promotes foreign investment in Lebanon, noting that this is “critical against the backdrop of the devastating economic situation.”
The deal “also promotes regional stability,” Shea went on to say.

EU welcomes maritime boundary agreement between Lebanon and Israel
NNA/Wednesday, 12 October, 2022
 The European Union said, in a statement on Wednesday, that it “welcomes the announcement of an agreement in the negotiations between Lebanon and Israel on the delineation of their maritime boundary.” “The EU commends Israel and Lebanon’s constructive spirit in this endeavor as well as the role of the US,” the statement read. It continued: “The agreement reached by both parties constitutes an important milestone. Its implementation will contribute to their stability and prosperity as well as to that of the wider region. We encourage the parties to continue engaging constructively, including towards regional energy cooperation and development. This is essential in times of international security challenges and global energy crisis.”“The EU stands ready to continue developing its partnerships with both Israel and Lebanon and supporting efforts towards regional cooperation for the benefit of all,” it concluded.

Israeli Security Cabinet OKs Lebanon maritime border deal
Associated Press/Wednesday, 12 October, 2022
Israel's Security Cabinet on Wednesday voted in favor of the U.S.-brokered maritime border deal with Lebanon, the first of several procedural hurdles before the agreement is formally adopted. The snap vote by Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid's senior ministers came a day after he announced that Israel agreed to the terms of the landmark deal between the two sides that have formally been in a state of war since 1948. Lebanon and Israel both claim around 860 square kilometers (330 square miles) of the Mediterranean Sea that are home to offshore gas fields. At stake are rights over exploiting those undersea resources. Under the agreement, the disputed waters would be divided along a line straddling the strategic "Qana" natural gas field. The Prime Minister's Office said the Security Cabinet voted unanimously in favor of ratifying the agreement, with one minister abstaining, setting up a vote by the full Cabinet.
Lebanon hopes gas exploration will help lift its country out of its spiraling economic crisis. Israel also hopes to exploit gas reserves while also easing tensions with its northern neighbor. But the deal still faces numerous hurdles, including legal and political challenges in Israel. The Supreme Court on Wednesday dismissed a petition to freeze the deal because of its approval just weeks before Israel goes to its fifth elections in just under four years on Nov. 1.

President Aoun meets Visual Professions’ Syndicate delegation, says completing demarcation agreement will pull Lebanon out of the abyss
NNA/Wednesday, 12 October, 2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, asserted that “The completion of the agreement on the demarcation of the southern maritime borders, after indirect negotiations with Israel, will enable Lebanon to extract oil and gas, and thus will be pulled out of the abyss into which it was brought down as a result of not changing the method of government for years, in addition to the waste that halted the work of public institutions and administrations”. The President also noted that the demarcation agreement is a gift to the Lebanese people in all its categories, and revealed that next week the process of returning the displaced Syrians to their country will begin in batches. The President’s positions came while meeting a delegation from the Syndicate of Optical Professions headed by Mrs. Nisreen Ashqar, in the presence of Advisor, Rafic Shelala. At the beginning of the meeting, Mrs. Al-Ashqar gave the following speech:
“Mr. President
I am addressing your Excellency today on behalf of the Syndicate of Optical Professions in Lebanon, to express our thanks to you for your constant support for our Syndicate, which we have witnessed throughout your term.
You always had an open heart and attentive ears to our requests, and you gave your recommendations several times to expedite the implementation of decrees of Law No. 121/2019 issued by the Parliament, the legislative authority in the country, which aims to regulate the profession of optometry and the manufacture of optical devices in Lebanon. We also thank you for the contacts you made in order to support us to expedite the launch and implementation of the financial nature. Mr. President, we are not those who drink from a well and throw stones at it. We are grateful to you for your love and support. We hope that our beloved Lebanon will emerge from this dark tunnel and this dire economic situation, which has become a heavy burden for the Lebanese citizen.
We count on the will and steadfastness of our people in the face of challenges and crises. And we ask God, all glory to his name, to incur his burden so that this people can stand again, to hold accountable all those who extended the hand of the forbidden on our money and the sustenance of our children.
The Lebanese people were, Mr. President, and will remain great, as we used to, and the great people of Lebanon will not back down from the issue and demand their right, and we all believe that no right dies behind demands. We will demand, confront, be held accountable, and remain as entrusted to us, Mr. President, as a free, sovereign, independent and proud people despite all circumstances.
Long live Lebanon”.
President Aoun:
For his side, the President welcomed the delegation, and said: “We are here to secure the people’s rights, whether in legislation, money, or through all the basic and necessary matters for the functioning of the public interest”.
The President also pointed out that “The situation in Lebanon has deteriorated a lot, after the country fell into an abyss that did not come by chance, but as a result of actions and behaviours that brought it to what it is today”.
In addition, President Aoun stressed that “The aid that was disbursed to Lebanon through Paris-1, Paris-2 and Paris- 3 did not work, for a fundamental reason that lies in the failure to change the method of governance, and in the waste that marred the work of institutions and administrations”.
On the other hand, the President addressed the importance of the agreement that was completed in the file of demarcating the southern maritime borders after indirect negotiations with Israel.
“This will enable Lebanon to extract oil and gas, which will pull Lebanon out of the abyss into which it was plunged. However, it remains today to implement the accountability mechanism for those responsible for stealing public funds, whose responsibility was revealed through the completed forensic audit” President Aoun added. Finally, President Aoun indicated that “The completion of the demarcation agreement is a gift to the Lebanese people of all kinds, from their children to their elders”.
“Starting from the end of next week, we will witness the start of returning the Syrians to their country, in batches, which is an important issue for us” the President concluded. -- Presideny Press Office

Berri tackles developments with Mikati, broaches legislative, developmental affairs with lawmakers
NNA/Wednesday, 12 October, 2022
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Wednesday welcomed at the Second Presidency in Ain El-Tineh, Caretaker Prime Minister, Prime Minister-designate, Najib Mikati, with whom he discussed the current general situation, political developments and legislative affairs. Caretaker Premier Mikati left Ain El-Tineh without making a statement. On the other hand, Speaker Berri received MP Dr. Taha Naji, over the latest developments and an array of developmental and legislative affairs. Among Speaker Berri’s itinerant visitors for today had been former MP Dr. Assem Araji, with discussions reportedly touching on the current health situation and developmental affairs related to the Beqa district.

Mikati meets French, Russian Ambassadors, chairs financial, environmental and health meetings, receives Sovereign Front for Lebanon...
NNA/Wednesday, 12 October, 2022
Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Wednesday welcomed at the Grand Serail, French Ambassador to Lebanon, Anne Grillo, with whom he discussed the country’s general situation. Caretaker Premier Mikati also received at the Grand Serail, the Russian Ambassador to Lebanon, Alexander Rudakov.
During the meeting, Premier Mikati stressed keenness to maintain good relations with Russia and the desire to develop them. Talks also touched on the positive results of the negotiations to demarcate the southern Lebanese maritime borders.
Ambassador Rudakov, in turn, said that they discussed the latest developments in Lebanon, as well as the situation in Ukraine and the United Nations.On the other hand, Mikati chaired a meeting at the Grand Serail devoted to discussing with international organizations the swiftest means to combat the outbreaking Cholera epidemic.
After the meeting, Caretaker Minister of Environment, Nasser Yassin, said: "We’ve discussed the appropriate steps to combat the cholera epidemic, and a road map was drawn up for this end. International organizations will support all the places that provide water to Syrian refugee camps to ensure their cleanliness. They will also support all sewage and water pumping stations with diesel, especially in Baalbek, Akkar, Central Bekaa and West Bekaa camps, in addition to placing chlorine in all water and pumping stations.”
Moreover, the Ministry of Energy has been tasked to set up a service line for all sewage and pumping stations to operate them permanently, as well as to launch awareness campaigns in all places experiencing overcrowding. The meeting also dealt with "the need to take care of prisons and vaccinate all prisoners, in addition to paying attention to crowded popular places known as slums."
On a different level, Mikati met with Caretaker Minister of Environment, Nasser Yassin, and Beirut Governor, Judge Marwan Abboud, who said after the meeting that discussions touched on the solid waste file in the city of Beirut and its related legal and technical issues. Moreover, PM Mikati chaired the periodic meeting over preparations underway for the 2023 state budget, attended by Caretaker Minister of Finance, Youssef Al-Khalil, and Mikati's Advisors, former Minister Nicolas Nahas and Samir Al-Daher.
Separately, Mikati welcomed at the Grand Serail, a delegation of the “Sovereign Front for Lebanon”, over an array of hour issues.

PSP: Border demarcation deal with Israel does not mean normalization of relations
NNA/Wednesday, 12 October, 2022
The Progressive Socialist Party said on Wednesday that the maritime border demarcation deal between Lebanon and Israel does not mean any normalization of relations with the enemy. In a statement, the PSP welcomed this "key achievement which guarantees for Lebanon the actual beginning of extraction activities and the subsequent investment of its oil and gas resources." "This deal does not mean a withdrawal from the 1949 armistice agreement," the party said, urging the establishment of a sovereign fund and a national autonomous company to run the sector.

Army Commander meets Iraqi Defense Minister
NNA/Wednesday, 12 October, 2022
Lebanese Army Commander on Wednesday held talks with Iraqi Minister of Defense, Juma Inad, whom he met at the Iraqi Ministry of Defense. The pair discussed the situation of the Lebanese military institution and the means to support it.

Presidential vote: Latest developments ahead of Oct.13 session
Naharnet/Wednesday, 12 October, 2022 
Parliament is due to convene on Thursday to elect a new President, two days after Lebanon reached a "satisfying" border agreement with Israel that could be signed before the end of President Michel Aoun's term of office on October 31. The FPM said they would boycott the session on October 13, which marks the anniversary of Aoun's ouster at the end of the civil war in 1990 when the Syrian Army stormed the Baabda Palace, killing hundreds of Lebanese soldiers and civilians. Meanwhile, FPM chief Jebran Bassil announced a "presidential priorities" paper that he submitted to Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi and President Aoun, urging for a national dialogue. The Lebanese Forces reportedly said Wednesday that they will not accept to meet with Bassil over the presidential paper, as the latter said he will contact parliamentary blocs and leaders to propose to them the FPM's "presidential priorities."
Weeks ago, the parliament held a first presidential election round in which no candidate managed to garner 86 votes needed to win from the first round. MP Michel Mouawad, who garnered 36 votes in the first session, met Tuesday with the majority-Sunni MPs of the moderation bloc, who had voted "Lebanon" during the last session. Asharq al-Awsat newspaper reported Wednesday that it had learned from parliamentary sources that Mouawad's allies have contacted the moderation MPs to convince them of voting for Mouawad. Meanwhile, the change MPs mentioned three new names, after having voted in the first session to entrepreneur and philanthropist Salim Eddeh. MP Najat Aoun from the bloc said that the MPs are discussing the three names of ex-ministers Ziad Baroud and Nassif Hitti, and ex-MP Salah Honein. The name of Baroud has lately emerged as a leading candidate, al-Akhbar newspaper reported Wednesday. It added that the name of Baroud is not just supported by the change MPs but also by France, according to French diplomatic sources, who told the daily that France is starting to lean toward Baroud over Army chief General Joseph Aoun. Paris, the daily said, is maintaining its dialogue with Hezbollah "on the presidential file and other sensitive security files," and is directly coordinating with the group to reach a presidential exit. "Paris does not want to bypass Hezbollah and is trying to discuss consensual candidates," al-Akhbar said, adding that "if France succeeds to convince Saudi Arabia with its plan, politically and financially, it will consider that as an important achievement in its foreign policy." Hezbollah MPs will cast blank votes in Thursday's session, al-Jadeed TV said. In the last presidential election session, Hezbollah and its allies had also cast blank ballots.

Fayyad says Iran preparing treaty for fuel oil grant
Naharnet/Wednesday, 12 October, 2022  
Caretaker Energy Minister Walid Fayyad announced Wednesday that the fuel oil that Lebanon will receive from Iran for its electricity plants “will be a grant” and accordingly is exempt from “any sanctions.”“We will follow up on this issue and we have received reassurances that it will move forward,” Fayyad added, after meeting President Michel Aoun in Baabda. “We are preparing a treaty and the Iranian side is preparing the details,” the minister said.

Lebanese Business Leaders Association (RDCL) organizes round table entitled “Unlocking Lebanon’s Agriculture Potential”
NNA/Wednesday, 12 October, 2022   
RDCL organized, with the support of USAID’s TIF Project, a round table entitled “Unlocking Lebanon’s Agriculture Potential”, on October 11, 2022 at RDCL headquarters. This event is the third of many organized by RDCL in partnership with USAID’s TIF Project, aiming to improve the work environment and investments of the Lebanese private sector in various fields. This event, which tackles the agriculture issue in Lebanon, was preceded by two previous ones that have addressed the healthcare and tourism sectors issues.  Mr. Nicolas Boukather, President of RDCL, started the event by making the opening remarks, where he explained in details the ASPIRE Project and its objectives. Mr. Boukather also stated that RDCL is working on various topics, including the energy and banking sectors and many more, in order to reposition Lebanon on the international economic map.
From her end, Mrs. Nadine El Khoury, president of QOOT(Lebanon Agri-Food Innovation Cluster), and member of the RDCL Agriculture GPA (Group for Proposition and Action), explained the mission of the group and its objectives, as well as the project that it has prepared. Furthermore, Mrs. El Khoury listed the main challenges that the agriculture sector is facing, such as the high cost of technologies, the limited knowledge of the human capital, and the low investments, in addition to the complete absence of governmental support. Moreover, she mentioned the strengths and the opportunities that should be taken into consideration to enforce the agriculture sector, such as Lebanon’s capacity to cultivate more than 90 agricultural species, its favorable climate, and its ability to attract specific investments for the agricultural sector.
Mr. Raphael Debbane, President of the Agricultural Committee of the Federation of Chambers of Commerce, Industry and Agriculture in Lebanon and Head of the RDCL Agriculture GPA, made a detailed presentation explaining the necessary actions that Lebanon should take, in addition to the matters that should be solved in order to improve the Lebanese agriculture sector. Mr. Debbane underlined that the total amount of food commodities imported to Lebanon costs 2.5 billion dollars per year, whereas Lebanon has the potential, with a proper organization, to produce and cultivate 65% of the same commodities.
After the presentations, Dr. Sami Nader, RDCL lead technical expert moderated the discussion that followed, during which the experts in agriculture shared their concerns and propositions. The round table was marked by the presence of many RDCL members, representatives from USAID and TIF Project, as well as key actors from the Lebanese sector, especially the agriculture sector, such as representatives from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and a group of agricultural experts. The event was closed by the recommendations on which the audience agreed, namely the aggregation and organization of producers into cooperatives, the emphasis on the role of the private sector, the development of training programs and workshops to educate farmers and train them, the establishment of specialized financial institutions for agriculture, in addition to the cooperation of LARI (Lebanese Agricultural Research Institute) with all universities that have agriculture schools.

طوني بدران/العربية إسرائيل تقايض حقول الغاز بخط عوامات
Israel trades gas fields for a line of buoys
Tony Badran/ Al Arabiya/October 12/2022 |
The citizens of the state of Israel were informed this past weekend that the caretaker government of Prime Minister Yair Lapid was about to trade several hundred square kilometers of Israel’s potentially resource-rich exclusive economic zone for what it said would be a form of “international recognition” of a line of apparently under-recognized buoys. In other words, after dickering endlessly back and forth with American negotiators for a decade about whether Israel is rightly entitled to 45 percent or 55 percent or even 100 percent of the disputed maritime area, the percentage that Israel finally agreed to is 0 percent.
But within a few days, Lapid’s big buoy birthday party was put on ice. Predictably, the Lebanese informed the American mediator they would not recognize the buoy line as Israel’s border. With Israel’s election three weeks away, the Biden administration quickly affirmed that it still believes “a lasting compromise is possible,” and comments from the Lebanese suggested confidence Washington will deliver for them.
The main explanation for the hurry to conclude one of the region’s less urgent-seeming negotiations by any means necessary can be found in Washington D.C., which has appointed itself as champion of the Hezbollah-run pseudo-state formerly known as Lebanon. The Biden administration had described concluding the gas deal as a “key priority,” and President Biden had personally impressed on Lapid at the end of August the need to conclude the deal within weeks. The fact that the Iranian people are being mowed down in the streets for expressing their hatred of the regime apparently makes the American goal of flooding an Iranian proxy with cash even more urgent.
As reports about the deal came out in the Lebanese media, it didn’t take long for former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take aim at his rival: “Yair Lapid shamefully surrendered to [Hezbollah leader Hassan] Nasrallah’s threats.” Netanyahu’s former energy minister, Yuval Steinitz, who briefly partook in negotiations on the maritime border when the Trump administration made its own ill-advised attempt to revive this track in 2020, described the deal as “by definition a surrender to blackmail.” Steinitz added that the ratio of the deal ended up being 100-0 in Lebanon’s favor.
The Israeli press meanwhile was torn between wonderment at the awfulness of the deal and the horror of agreeing with Bibi, who, after all, is Israel’s true national enemy. Yet despite their thriving in-group hatreds, some Israeli national security reporters could not help but ask incredulously: Could it really be that the government was simply giving in to Hezbollah’s threats to target Israel’s energy infrastructure if the terror group didn’t get what it wanted?
Reporters in the new Team Obama American-Israeli media messaging complex run from Washington, D.C. immediately launched a campaign to counter the idea that Israel had in any way been pressured by America—or that Lapid had scored anything other than a historic negotiating victory. An unnamed official who briefed the press on background denied that Israel had completely caved to Lebanon’s demands, “pointing to the fact that Beirut had demanded that Line 29 further south be the border. This would have given Lebanon parts of the Karish gas field.” Of course, this is false. The Lebanese border line, Line 23, is the only one Lebanon has deposited with the United Nations.
“We want to weaken Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon. That is why we are trying to advance the negotiations on the maritime border,” said Israeli national security adviser Eyal Hulata last month, explaining why Hezbollah would now be granted its own gas rig in the Mediterranean in de facto partnership with the French oil giant Total.
Others hyped as a major win the inclusion of a small buffer zone near the shore at Naqoura that extends some 5 kilometers out to sea before it ties back to Line 23, which Israel has agreed to concede to Lebanon. The area is marked by a line of buoys that Israel had placed in the water after its withdrawal from Lebanon. Barak Ravid, the leading Israeli mouthpiece of the Obama-Biden policy team since his days shilling for the original failed U.S.-Iran nuclear deal, relayed that government officials said that anchoring the “line of buoys” was “very important” because “in the last 20 years the Israeli military operated along this line unilaterally and the Lebanese side had international legitimacy to challenge it.” The deal, however, “will allow Israel to treat it as its northern territorial border.”
Needless to say, the Lebanese side disagreed entirely with the Israeli reading, and amended the U.S. proposal to reflect its position. Lapid, who played up the buoys as his major achievement, then rejected the amendment even as his government publicized its desire to conclude the deal. By Sunday, the U.S. mediator was ready with an updated proposal.
What emerges quite clearly from this weird little incident is that stabilizing and investing in Iranian regional “equities” is at the core of the Obama-Biden doctrine of Realignment. It’s how you achieve “regional integration”—by showcasing your ability to press your allies to sacrifice their own security in order to prop up Iranian assets, even as the Iranian people are being mowed down in the streets.
*Tony Badran is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he contributes to FDD’s Israel Program. Follow Tony on Twitter @AcrossTheBay. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.

Former US point man on Israel-Lebanon maritime, David Schenker talks says chances of war remain high, even with a deal
Mike Wagenheim/INS/October 12/2022
David Schenker says the proposed deal is good for Lebanon, but “does nothing to alleviate tensions along the Blue Line.”
The former State Department point man on the Israel-Lebanon maritime border negotiations thinks the current deal on the table is “overall, pretty good for Lebanon.”
David Schenker served as the assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs under former U.S. President Donald Trump, helping to relaunch negotiations on maritime border demarcations between Israel and Lebanon, two bitter enemies still technically at war.
The effort proved futile, as the Lebanese dramatically inflated their claims to territorial waters well beyond the internationally-accepted starting point for negotiations.
The disputed waters encompass 860 square kilometers (332 square miles) between the southern boundary of the Lebanese claim, known as “line 23,” which it formally asserted under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, and the boundary Israel sought to draw to the north, known as “line 1.” In 2012, U.S. mediator Frederic Hof proposed a compromise that would have split up the area at a ratio of 55% for Lebanon and 45% for Israel. But without offering clear reasons, the Lebanese government failed to approve the proposal and the negotiations lapsed. When indirect talks resumed in late 2020, the Lebanese delegation presented new legal and hydro-graphical studies to support an expanded claim (bounded by what is known as “line 29”), including an additional 1,430 square kilometers south of line 23.
“At the second round of negotiations, the Lebanese proffered an extreme demand, which was to extend their previously filed line at the United Nations—the 23 line—and make a claim for the 29 line. It was really a maximalist demand that basically stalled the negotiations and they remained frozen for the next year, year-and-a-half until [State Department Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs Amos] Hochstein got in there and the Lebanese started moving off that point,” Schenker told JNS.
The new deal, as reported, places the Lebanese boundary back at line 23, but nothing more.
“I think that Lebanon is going to be very pleased. It appears that Israel has agreed to the 23 lines, so that’s 100%, basically, of what the Lebanese demand was, plus a negotiation on the Qana field,” a prospective gas field that Lebanon will take over, with possible royalties being paid to Israel should the field be developed. “What Israel gets is a buffer zone for seven kilometers out and maybe a little bit of peace of mind taking away one area of contention between Hezbollah and Israel. But I think overall, it’s pretty good for Lebanon here,” said Schenker.
It all comes down to priorities, said Schenker, now a Taube senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and director of its Program on Arab Politics. He said the priority for the current government of Prime Minister Yair Lapid appears to be solving one of its border issues, but even a conclusion on that front falls short of the promise of further stability.
“This does nothing to alleviate tensions along the Blue Line where Hezbollah is digging in, putting commandos on the border, developing with great speed its precision-guided munitions project,” said Schenker, referring to the disputed line of withdrawal following Israeli forces’ exit from Southern Lebanon in 2000, which is supposed to serve as a buffer zone.
Hezbollah terrorist forces, backed by Iran, have launched attacks from the line and dug terror tunnels into Israel below it. Hezbollah repeatedly threatened it would attack Israel should a deal between Israel and Lebanon favor the Jewish state, and this summer it launched armed drones towards the Israeli-controlled Karish gas field in Israel’s undisputed zone in the Mediterranean.
“I don’t think this [proposed deal] does a whole lot for improving the atmospherics. I think the chances for an Israel-Hezbollah war remain as great,” Schenker said.
Schenker claims that it is, ironically, Hezbollah’s destructive effect on Lebanese society that advanced maritime border talks.
“I think what really made this possible at this point in time was that the decision makers in Lebanon—and by that I am referring to Hezbollah—determined that they could no longer stand in the way of exploitation of this resource. In other words, Hezbollah had been putting on the brakes,” said Schenker, who pointed to startling figures that show 85% of Lebanese people in poverty and the spiraling devaluation of the Lebanese lira. “The situation is so dire that Hezbollah could not stand in the way of the government of Lebanon generating any revenues. And so now it will take the credit for threatening Israel into this deal, whether it’s true or not.”
Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu oversaw the Israeli end of talks while Schenker was at the helm and has been vociferously critical of the pending deal, arguing it puts Israel’s security at risk and abandons Israel’s economic interests. Schenker, while declining to comment on private diplomatic negotiations, said that Netanyahu and his team, led by then-Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz, never had a full opportunity to put their territorial and security-related red lines on the table, as deep talks failed to materialize following Lebanon’s new maximalist demands.
Netanyahu has reportedly lashed out at the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden over its brokering of the current proposal, going so far as to privately make a claim of election interference, with the winding down of talks coming during the Israeli election campaign.
*Schenker downplayed that notion, calling the American efforts “altruistic” and at the invitation of Israel, just as it had been when he was in government.
“I think it’s a rare foreign policy win for the Biden administration. And it is something that they can point to as being a success, especially now that the Houthi ceasefire has crumbled,” said Schenker, referring to this weekend’s expiration of a U.S.- and United Nations-brokered truce involving the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.
https://www.jns.org/former-us-point-man-on-israel-lebanon-maritime-talks-says-chances-of-war-remain-high-even-with-a-deal/

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 12-13/2022
Biden vows 'consequences' for Saudis after OPEC+ cuts output
Associated Press/Wed, October 12, 2022
President Joe Biden has said there will be "consequences" for Saudi Arabia as the Riyadh-led OPEC+ alliance moves to cut oil production and Democratic lawmakers call for a freeze on cooperation with the Saudis.
Biden suggested he would soon take action, as aides announced that the administration is reevaluating its relationship with the kingdom in light of the oil production cut that White House officials say will help another OPEC+ member, Russia, pad its coffers as it continues its nearly eight-month war in Ukraine. Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut and Rep. Ro Khanna of California introduced legislation that would immediately pause all U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia for one year. This pause would also halt sales of spare and repair parts, support services and logistical support. But it remains to be seen how far Biden is willing to go in showing his displeasure with the Saudis, a vital but complicated ally in the Middle East. Biden came into office vowing to recalibrate the U.S. relationship because of Saudi Arabia's human rights record but then paid a visit to the kingdom earlier this year.
Biden said in a CNN interview he would look to consult with Congress on the way forward, but stopped short of endorsing the Democratic lawmakers' call to halt weapons sales.
"There's going to be some consequences for what they've done, with Russia," Biden said. "I'm not going to get into what I'd consider and what I have in mind. But there will be — there will be consequences."
John Kirby, a White House National Security Council spokesman, said Biden believes "it's time to take another look at this relationship and make sure that it's serving our national security interests."
Press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Tuesday the White House has no timeline for its review nor has the president appointed an adviser to serve as point person.
Meanwhile, officials underscore the central role that Saudi Arabia plays in addressing broader national security concerns in the Middle East. Blumenthal and Khanna unveiled their legislation one day after Sen. Robert Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat, said it was unacceptable that OPEC+ had moved to cut oil production and effectively assist Moscow in its war on Ukraine. Menendez promised to use his position as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to block any future arms sales to the Saudis. Menendez did not warn the White House before announcing his intention to block future Saudi arms sales, Kirby said. OPEC+, which includes Russia as well as Saudi Arabia, announced last week it would cut production by 2 million barrels a day, which will help prop up oil prices that are allowing Russian President Vladimir Putin to keep paying for his eight-month invasion of Ukraine. The production cut also hurts U.S.-led efforts to make the war financially unsustainable for Russia, threatens a global economy already destabilized by the Ukraine conflict and risks saddling Biden and Democrats with newly rising gasoline prices just ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud told Saudi-owed Al Arabiya on Tuesday that his government's justification of the production cuts was "purely economic."Biden and European leaders have urged more oil production to ease gasoline prices and punish Moscow for its aggression in Ukraine. Putin has been accused of using energy as a weapon against countries opposing Russia's invasion. "They are certainly aligning themselves with Russia," Jean-Pierre said. "This is not a time to be aligning with Russia." As for the Saudis, Sen. Blumenthal said, "We cannot continue selling highly sensitive arms technology to a nation aligned with an abhorrent terrorist adversary."However, the White House takes note that its weapon sales to Riyadh serve, in part, as an important counterweight in the region to Iran, which is quickly moving toward becoming a nuclear power. "There's 70,000 Americans living in Saudi Arabia right now, not to mention all the other troops we have throughout the region," Kirby said. "So, it's not only in our interest that missile defense in the region become more integrated and cooperative. It's in the interest of our allies and partners in that part of the world as well."
Still, the pressure is mounting for Biden. As a candidate for the White House, he vowed that Saudi rulers would "pay the price" under his watch for the 2018 killing of U.S.-based journalist Jamal Khashoggi, a critic of the kingdom's leadership. Biden said that he'd look to make the oil-rich country a "pariah."But in July, amid rising prices at the pump around the globe, Biden decided to pay a visit to Saudi Arabia. During the visit, he met with the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, who he once shunned as a killer for the death of Khashoggi. The U.S. intelligence community determined that the crown prince, often referred to by his initials MBS, likely approved the killing of Khashoggi inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. MBS denies he was involved. The Saudis have also drawn international criticism for airstrikes killing civilians in the years-long war between the kingdom and Houthi rebels in Yemen — as well as for embargoes that exacerbated hunger and pushed Yemen to the brink of famine. "Saudi Arabia's disastrous decision to slash oil production by two million barrels a day makes it clear that Riyadh is seeking to harm the U.S. and reaffirms the need to reassess the U.S.-Saudi relationship," Khanna said. "There is no reason for the U.S. to kowtow to a regime that has massacred countless civilians in Yemen, hacked to death a Washington-based journalist and is now extorting Americans at the pump."

Louvre Abu Dhabi marks five years with major Impressionism show
Agence France Presse/Wed, October 12, 2022
A major exhibition of impressionist art opened Wednesday at the Louvre Abu Dhabi, featuring works from masters such as Cezanne, Degas, Manet, Monet, Pissarro and Renoir. Billed as one of the most significant exhibitions on the 19th century art movement ever held outside France, it features more than 150 works on loan from the Musee d'Orsay in Paris. Claude Monet's "Women in the Garden" is among the masterpieces on show from the movement characterized by rapid dabs and brushstrokes that explore the transient effects of light and color. "Impressionism: Pathways to Modernity", to run until February 5, marks five years since the opening of the art museum in the capital of the United Arab Emirates. It also features etchings, costumes, photos and film on the rebellious and convention-busting art movement born as industrialization and urbanization brought social upheaval in Europe. That theme resonates in today's Gulf region, "where we also face the challenge of this modernity and this transition to a new world", said Sylvie Patry, general curator of the Musee d'Orsay. French President Emmanuel Macron inaugurated the Louvre Abu Dhabi in 2007 in the Emirates, one of the world's leading oil exporters and largest arms buyers. Louvre Abu Dhabi director Manuel Rabate said one of the "fundamental missions" of the museum was to "present the great movements of the history of art such as Impressionism". "To tell the story of Impressionism, you have to have the incredible loans that come from the Musee d'Orsay". To mark its first five years, the Louvre Abu Dhabi acquired a special birthday gift, for an undisclosed price -- Pierre-Auguste Renoir's masterpiece "The Cup of Chocolate".

Iranians keep up protests over Mahsa Amini death despite mounting
Parisa Hafezi/DUBAI (Reuters)/Wed, October 12, 2022
-Iranians kept up anti-government protests on Wednesday despite an increasingly deadly state crackdown, social media reports showed, as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dismissed the demonstrations as "scattered riots" planned by Iran's enemies. Protests ignited by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini while in the custody of Iran's morality police on Sept. 16 have turned into one of the boldest challenges to the clerical leadership since the 1979 revolution. A crowd of at least 100 people blocked a road in central Tehran, shouting "by cannon, tank or firecracker, mullahs must get lost", one video showed. Another video showed dozens of riot police deployed in a Tehran street where a fire was burning. Tear gas was fired during a protest outside the lawyers association in Tehran, where demonstrators who appeared to number in the dozens had chanted "women, life freedom", videos posted on social media showed.
Reuters could not independently verify the videos. In the northwestern city of Bukan, security forces fired on protesters, wounding 11 people, according to human rights group Hengaw which also reported shooting in the city of Kermanshah.
In Sanandaj, the main city in Amini's province of Kurdistan, a protester said shots were also fired. "Several demonstrators got injured. Riot police are everywhere," they told Reuters. In an apparently coordinated effort, activist groups called for protesters to gather from early afternoon, breaking the pattern of nighttime demonstrations that have prevailed since unrest began sweeping Iran nearly four weeks ago. While observers do not believe the protests are close to toppling the government - the authorities withstood six months of protests in 2009 over a disputed election - the unrest has underlined pent-up frustrations over freedoms and rights. Amini's death has struck a nerve, bringing a broad sweep of Iranians onto the streets, with protesters expressing anger at the heavy handedness of morality police and saying the victim could have been anyone's mother, sister or daughter. The Norway-based Iran Human Rights organisation said the civilian death toll during the unrest had increased to at least 201, including 23 minors. Its previous report, on Oct. 8, put the death toll at 185 people. The authorities have said around 20 members of the security forces have been killed. Iran has accused its enemies, including the United States, of fomenting the unrest.
'STAND UP TO ENEMIES'
The unrest comes at a time of hardship for ordinary people in Iran, where costly interventions in wars such as Syria have fuelled criticism in recent years. The economy continues to suffer from bad management and from Western sanctions tightened over Iran's nuclear programme, nudging Tehran ever closer to Russia and China. Khamenei, a focus of protesters' anger, said the protests were designed by Iran's enemies, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported. "These scattered riots are the passive and clumsy design of the enemy against the great and innovative developments and movements of the Iranian nation," he said. "The cure against enemies is to stand up to them," he said. In Iran's capital, a protester who asked not to be identified said dozens of riot police had arrested people leaving Tehran University. "They are beating and pushing people," the protester said. The protests have been especially intense in the northwest, where many of Iran's over 10 million Kurds live and where Iran's Revolutionary Guards have a track record of putting down unrest. Hengaw reported strikes in Kurdish regions including Amini's hometown of Saqez and Bukan, sharing videos which appeared to show shops with their shutters down in both towns. In Rasht, the capital of Gilan province in northern Iran, a dozen protesters were seen shouting in a video posted on social media, "from Kurdistan to Gilan, I sacrifice my life for Iran," echoing chants that have stressed national unity. Reuters could not verify the video.

Iran supreme leader says 'enemies' involved in protests
Agence France Presse/Wednesday, 12 October, 2022
Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Wednesday said "enemies" were involved in street violence that erupted last month over the death of Mahsa Amini. Khamenei has already accused the United States, Israel and their "agents" of fomenting the unrest sparked by Amini's death after her arrest for allegedly failing to adhere to the Islamic republic's strict dress code for women. "Today, everyone confirms the involvement of the enemies in these street riots," Khamenei said Wednesday in a televised meeting with the Expediency Council, an advisory body. "The actions of the enemy, such as propaganda, trying to influence minds, creating excitement, encouraging and even teaching the manufacture of incendiary materials, are now completely clear," he said, without identifying the enemy. Earlier Wednesday, the judiciary said it had charged more than 100 people over the protests in Tehran and Hormozgan provinces. "Some of these people are either enemy agents or... aligned with the enemy, and some are excited people," Khamenei said. "The judicial and security authorities must do their duty" in dealing with the "enemy agents", he said. Since September 16, dozens of people -- mainly protesters but also members of the security forces -- have been killed while hundreds of others have been arrested in several cities across the country.

Iranian President Vows Vengeance Against 'Architects of Conspiracy'
London, Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 12 October, 2022
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said his government would take revenge from "the architects of the conspiracy."The official IRNA news agency quoted Raisi as saying in a telephone conversation with the family of a deceased Basij officer that the responsible authorities are keen to take revenge from those responsible for this crime. For his part, the spokesman for National Security and Foreign Policy Parliamentary Commission, Abolfazl Amouei, said that a group of conservative MPs discussed security developments with officials from the Ministry of Intelligence.
According to Tasnim News Agency, Amouei indicated that recent developments have social foundations, but at the same time, the revolution's enemies seek to destabilize the country. He added that the lawmakers demanded a strict confrontation with the counter-revolutionary groups. Judiciary spokesman, Masoud Satayshi, said that former reformist MP Faezeh Hashemi, daughter of former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, faces charges of propaganda against the regime, calling for gatherings, and disrupting public order.
He announced that Hashemi was "temporarily detained." Hashemi was arrested on the 11th night of the protests, and hours after her arrest, Tasnim Agency quoted an informed source saying that one of the security services had arrested her for "inciting protestors to create chaos."A member of the Expediency Discernment Council, Mohammad Sadr, warned that the authority "cannot rule by force," noting that the developments following Mahsa Amini's death resulted from accumulated resentment and repeated demands of people, especially the young and women.
Sadr, who ran several times for the Foreign Minister position, told the Jamaran website that "the security vision itself threatens security," calling for a change in the security position of the ruling institution. Several newspapers criticized the Commission for the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice and its Secretary General Mohammad Salih Hashemi Gulbaigani after he incited state agencies to impose strict veil laws. The conservative Farheekhtegan newspaper headlined: "The Hate Production Factory," warning that the Commission's head and officials exacerbated social rifts.
Late Monday, Iran's Foreign Ministry summoned the British ambassador to protest the UK's imposition of sanctions on Iran's morality police over the death of Amini.
The Ministry told the British ambassador that the sanctions imposed by the UK "are distorted and have no value for the Islamic Republic of Iran." The ambassador was also informed that Iran "reserves its right to take countermeasures," state media added.
This is the third time Iran has summoned the British ambassador since the outbreak of protests last month. Britain announced sanctions against Iran's morality police in its entirety as well as its chief, Mohammed Gachi, and the head of its Tehran division, Haj Ahmad Mirzaei in response to the violent suppression of protests since the death of Amini in police custody. Recently, Western countries, including the United States and Canada, imposed sanctions on Iranian officials, accusing them of "suppressing" the protests. The European Union is also considering imposing "restrictive measures" on Tehran.
White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said, "The world is watching what is happening in Iran." "These protestors are Iranian citizens, led by women and girls, demanding dignity and basic rights," Sullivan wrote on Twitter.
"We stand with them, and we will hold responsible those using violence in a vain effort to silence their voices."
Meanwhile, reformist Etemad newspaper quoted Iranian-US sociologist Asef Bayat saying people wish to take back the everyday life that has been taken away from them. Bayat believes this movement seeks life, and the protesters feel that achieving basic demands is being violated by the ruling establishment, unaware of the people's hopes and suffering.He indicated that former protests focused on economic and living issues. However, the current movement is "comprehensive and unified," able to bring together different classes and nationalities from all over the country. The Emtedad website quoted Bayat as saying that "women have taken the lead in Iran in the struggle against the authoritarian regime."He described the uprising in Iran as an all-encompassing movement that has gathered together all Iranians regardless of their social class and ethnicity.

IRGC Prepares for Ground Operations in Iraqi Kurdistan
London, Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 12 October, 2022
Well-informed sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is preparing to carry out ground operations in the Kurdistan region of Iraq to target the bases of Iranian Kurdish opposition parties, with the escalation of the protests that erupted last month following the death of Mahsa Amini.
Human rights groups expressed concern about a security crackdown in Sanandaj, while Reuters reported that videos on social media showed tanks being transported to Kurdish areas, which were focal points in the crackdown on protests. In turn, AFP quoted the Norway-based Hengaw rights group as saying that an Iranian warplane had arrived at the city’s airport overnight and buses carrying special forces were on their way to the city from elsewhere in Iran. Sources in Tehran told Asharq Al-Awsat that the IRGC announced the readiness of its ground units to carry out limited operations to target the sites of Kurdish opposition parties. The sources said that IRGC units had received orders to head to the tense area. In this context, IRGC channels reported on Telegram that the armed forces were preparing for a “ground attack on the headquarters of separatist terrorists.” Protests demanding the overthrow of the Iranian regime have swept the country since the death of Amini - a 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian young woman – who passed away on Sept. 16, while she was being detained by the “morality police” on the grounds of “bad hijab”. Iranian authorities have blamed “enemies” for the violence, including armed Iranian Kurdish rebels. The Revolutionary Guards attacked their bases in neighboring Iraq several times during the recent unrest.
The IRGC said on Sept. 28 that it had fired 73 ballistic missiles and dozens of drones at targets of the Iranian Kurdish opposition parties. Authorities in Iraq said 14 people were killed, including an infant and dozens were injured. The US Central Command announced at the time that it had shot down an Iranian Muhajir-6 drone, because it “posed a danger” to the US forces in Erbil. During a visit to Sanandaj, Minister of Interior Ahmad Vahidi claimed that the protests were “supported, planned and executed by separatist terrorist groups,” without providing any supporting evidence. Hengaw said at least seven people had been confirmed killed by the security forces in Sanandaj and other Kurdish-populated cities since Saturday. Amnesty International said it was “alarmed by the crackdown on protests in Sanandaj amid reports of security forces using firearms and firing teargas indiscriminately, including into people’s homes.”
Hengaw warned that citizens were having difficulty sending video evidence of the events due to restrictions on the Internet, but confirmed the death of a seven-year-old child on Sunday night. It added that at least 7 people have been killed by security forces in Sanandaj and other Kurdish-populated cities since Saturday. The New-York based Center for Human Rights in Iran said there was a risk of a similar situation in Sistan-Baluchistan province in the southeast, where activists say more than 90 people have been killed since Sept. 30. “The ruthless killings of civilians by security forces in Kurdistan province, on the heels of the massacre in Sistan-Baluchistan province, are likely preludes to severe state violence to come,” said its director, Hadi Ghaemi.
Meanwhile, Reuters quoted the Taseer1500 Twitter account that strikes were organized at energy facilities in southwestern Iran for the second day. Workers protested at the Abadan oil refinery and the Bushehr petrochemical plant, shouting slogans against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and blocking access roads. The workers were angered by a dispute over wages and were not protesting against the death of Amini, a regional official said on Tuesday. The protests continued until late Monday after spreading to the country’s vital energy sector, according to videos on social media. A video posted on Twitter showed protesters setting fire to the office of the Friday Imam and the representative of the Iranian guide in the central city of Fuladshahr, Isfahan. In the video, the attackers said: “We burn the Friday Imam’s office with Molotov cocktails for the sake of Iran’s girls on International Girls’ Day.”

NATO cautious to avoid war, struggles with dual challenges
Associated Press/Wednesday, 12 October, 2022
NATO defense ministers met Wednesday as the alliance's member countries face the twin challenges of struggling to make and supply weapons to Ukraine while protecting vital European infrastructure like pipelines or cables that Russia might want to sabotage in retaliation.
In the almost eight months since President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops into Ukraine, the 30-nation military alliance has been treading a fine line, as an organization, providing only non-lethal support and defending its own territory to avoid being dragged into a wider war with a nuclear-armed Russia.
Individual allies though continue to pour in weapons and ammunition, including armored vehicles and air defense or anti-tank systems. They're also training Ukrainian troops, building on the lessons NATO has taught Ukraine's military instructors since Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014.
But as the Russian missile strikes across Ukraine this week demonstrated, this is not enough. NATO defense ministers were taking stock Wednesday of the supply effort so far and to debate ways to encourage the defense industry to ramp up production in short order.
"Allies have provided air defense, but we need even more. We need different types of air defense, short-range, long-range air defense systems to take (out) ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones, different systems for different tasks," NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said.
"Ukraine is a big country, many cities. So we need to scale up to be able to help Ukraine defend even more cities and more territory against horrific Russian attacks against their civilian populations," Stoltenberg told reporters before chairing the meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels.
At the same time, national military stocks and arsenals are being depleted. Some countries are growing reluctant to provide Ukraine with more when they are no longer entirely sure that they can protect their own territories and airspace.
The issue, as one senior diplomat put it, is: "how do we arm Ukraine without disarming ourselves?" The diplomat spoke on condition of anonymity because the discussions involve collective security concerns.
For the defense industry, predictability is paramount. Companies need long-term orders and certainty before they commit to extend production lines. But no one is sure how long the war in Ukraine will last, making it difficult to know how much equipment is needed.
Still, Putin's attack on a sovereign country without provocation, and his threats to use nuclear weapons to defend seized territory, have made many allies neighboring Russia and Ukraine jittery.
So the United States and its partners want to boost weapons production by sending clear signals to industry, as they pool resources and send Ukraine the hardware that it needs, all while ensuring that no major gaps appear in national stockpiles.
Putin, for his part has warned NATO against deeper involvement in Ukraine. In recent weeks, as power and gas bills spiral and Europe struggles to decrease its dependency on Russia for energy, apparent acts of sabotage damaged two major pipelines once meant to bring natural gas to Germany.
The Polish operator of the Druzhba — or "Friendship" — oil pipeline, one of the world's longest pipelines and which originates in Russia, said Wednesday that it had detected a leak underground near the city of Plock in central Poland. The line supplies crude to Belarus, Ukraine, Poland, Austria and Germany.
Stoltenberg said that following the apparent sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines between Russia and Germany, NATO has "doubled our presence in the Baltic and North Seas to over 30 ships, supported by maritime patrol aircraft and undersea capabilities."
It's small comfort, given that about 8000 kilometers (nearly 5,000 miles) of oil and gas pipelines crisscross the North Sea alone. Systems, networks and grids are impossible to watch 24/7. Even the resources of energy companies, national authorities and NATO may not be enough to keep guard.
NATO's aim, for now, is to better coordinate between these actors, to better gather intelligence and improve the way it is shared, and watch over facilities, with aerial and undersea drones and other surveillance equipment.
No responsibility has been established for the pipeline incidents. But NATO is also trying to be clear in deterring Russia. "Any deliberate attack against allies' critical infrastructure would be met with a united and determined response," Stoltenberg said ahead of Wednesday's meeting.
He declined to say what kind of response that might be, or whether an accumulation of such hybrid attacks might trigger NATO's collective defense clause — Article 5 of its founding treaty — which ensures that an attack on any one ally would be met with a response from them all.

Russian nuclear strike in Ukraine would 'almost certainly' trigger a military response from Kyiv's partners: senior NATO official
Natalie Musumeci,John Haltiwanger/Business Insider/October 12, 2022
A Russian nuclear attack would "almost certainly" trigger a military response from Kyiv's friends, a senior NATO official said. There would be "unprecedented consequences" should Putin turn to nuclear weapons, they said, per Reuters.
The official said NATO itself might even be led to respond. Any nuclear weapons attack by Russia in its war with Ukraine would "almost certainly" trigger a military response from the eastern European country's friends, a senior official from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization reportedly said on Wednesday, possibly referencing countries like the US, among others. There would be "unprecedented consequences" should Russian President Vladimir Putin turn to nuclear weapons, the unnamed NATO official said, according to Reuters. A Russian nuclear attack would "almost certainly be drawing a physical response from many allies, and potentially from NATO itself," the official warned. Putin has repeatedly threatened that all elements of Russia's military power, even nuclear weapons, are on the table as he escalates his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. When Putin announced plans to partially mobilize hundreds of thousands of reservists to beef up Moscow's forces in the Russian president's fight with Ukraine, which has not at all been going according to plan, he again threatened the use of nuclear weapons. "If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people," the Russian leader said. "This is not a bluff." The NATO official said that Putin was using the threats of nuclear weapons as a way to discourage NATO countries, which have been providing billions of dollars in weaponry and other aid to Ukraine through its fight with Russia, from directly engaging in the conflict.Earlier this month, Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, a former CIA Moscow station chief, said it would be "terribly irresponsible" of Western leaders not to take Putin's threats of nuclear warfare seriously.
CIA Director William Burns recently said it was "hard" to tell whether Putin was bluffing about his willingness to use nuclear weapons, but the Biden administration is, nonetheless, watching the situation carefully. The Biden administration has privately warned Russia there would be "catastrophic consequences" if a nuclear weapon is employed in Ukraine, but the US has not offered specifics on precisely how it would respond to such a scenario.During an interview on Tuesday, CNN's Jake Tapper asked President Joe Biden what the "red line" is for the US and NATO. Tapper also questioned the president as to whether he's "directed the Pentagon and other agencies to game out what a response would be if [Putin] did use a tactical nuclear weapon or if he bombed the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine or anything along those lines.""There's been discussions of that, but I'm not going to get into that," Biden said in response. "It would be irresponsible of me to talk about what we would or wouldn't do." Rose Gottemoeller, a former senior State Department official for arms control and nonproliferation issues, and former deputy secretary general of NATO, said during a webinar on Tuesday hosted by the the Arms Control Association that if Russia uses a nuke in Ukraine, the US and its allies should not respond with a nuclear attack. "I do not believe that a nuclear response is something that the United States and its allies should be placing on the table. We need to stay on the side of perhaps a firm military response, but one that would stay conventional in nature," Gottemoeller said, going on to suggest that the US could respond by targeting the area where Russia's nuclear attack originated from. "Any such attack would be carefully designed to be proportionate and to be responsive to what would be an egregious attack on a Ukrainian target using a nuclear weapon," Gottemoeller added. "And second, I want to stress and really underscore that none of these options for military action are desirable to NATO or to the United States of America."

Russia protests over Japan's firing of HIMARS in exercise with U.S
LONDON (Reuters)/Wed, October 12, 2022
Russia said it had protested to the Japanese embassy on Wednesday over joint Japan-U.S. military exercises this week in which it said HIMARS rocket systems were fired close to Russia's borders. "We consider the military exercises that took place as a challenge to ensuring the security of the Far Eastern region of our country and insist on the immediate cessation of such actions," the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement. "The Japanese side was also warned about the inevitability of adequate response measures in order to block military threats to Russia," it added, without elaborating. HIMARS are the same rocket systems that the United States has supplied to Ukraine, which Kyiv has put to effective use in attacking Russian command nodes and supply lines. Japan has joined Western countries in imposing sanctions on Russia in response to its Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. Relations have further worsened in recent weeks, with Russia expelling a Japanese consul for alleged espionage and Tokyo responding in kind.

Russia Arrests 8 People Over Involvement in Crimea Bridge Bombing
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 12 October, 2022
Russia’s top domestic security agency said Wednesday it arrested eight people on charges of involvement in the bombing of the main bridge linking Russia to Crimea. The Federal Security Service, known by the Russian acronym FSB, said it arrested five Russians and three citizens of Ukraine and Armenia over Saturday’s attack that damaged the Kerch Bridge between Russia and the Crimean Peninsula — a crucial thoroughfare for supplies and travel whose construction under Russian President Vladimir Putin cost billions. A truck loaded with explosives blew up while driving across the bridge, killing four people and causing two sections of one of the two automobile links to collapse. Ukrainian officials have lauded the explosion on the bridge, but stopped short of directly claiming responsibility for it. The FSB alleged that the suspects were working on orders of Ukraine’s military intelligence to secretly move the explosives into Russia and forge the accompanying documents. But a senior Ukrainian official dismissed as "nonsense" Russia's investigation into the explosion. "The whole activity of the FSB and Investigative Committee is nonsense," Ukraine's public broadcaster Suspilne cited interior minister spokesman Andriy Yusov as saying when asked about Moscow's allegations on the bridge blast. Yusov described the FSB and Investigative Committee as "fake structures that serve the Putin regime, so we will definitely not comment on their next statements."

Ukraine Recaptures 5 Settlements in Kherson Region
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 12 October, 2022
Ukrainian forces recaptured five settlements in the southern Kherson region, according to the southern Operational Command. The villages of Novovasylivka, Novohryhorivka, Nova Kamianka, Tryfonivka and Chervone in the Beryslav district were retaken as of Oct. 11, according to the speaker of the southern command Vladislav Nazarov. The settlements are in one of the four regions recently annexed by Russia. Tuesday marked the second straight day when air raid sirens echoed throughout Ukraine, and officials advised residents to conserve energy and stock up on water.
The leaders of the Group of Seven industrial powers condemned the bombardment and said they would “stand firmly with Ukraine for as long as it takes.” Their pledge defied Russian warnings that Western assistance would prolong the war and the pain of Ukraine’s people. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the G-7 leaders during a virtual meeting Russia fired more than 100 missiles and dozens of drones at Ukraine over two days. He appealed for “more modern and effective” air defense systems — even though he said Ukraine shot down many of the Russian projectiles.

Putin says 'ball in EU court' on restarting Nord Stream deliveries
Associated Press/Wednesday, 12 October, 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that Moscow is ready to resume gas supplies to Europe via a link of the Germany-bound Nord Stream 2 pipeline under the Baltic Sea, but that "the ball was in the EU's court." Speaking at a Moscow energy forum, Putin again charged that the U.S. was likely behind the explosions that ripped through both links of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline and one of the two links of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, causing a massive gas leak and taking them out of service. The U.S. has previously rejected similar allegations by Putin. Several European governments said the undersea explosions that ripped through both Nord Stream pipelines were likely caused by sabotage but stopped short of assigning blame. The Russian leader has repeatedly taunted the West by raising the prospect of sending gas through Nord Stream 2, a political nonstarter for the German government and others. Reaffirming a claim that he made last week, Putin said that the attack on the pipelines was launched by those who wanted to weaken Europe by halting the flow of cheap gas from Russia. "The act of sabotage of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 is an act of international terrorism aimed at undermining energy security of the entire continent by blocking supplies of cheap energy," he said, alleging that the U.S. wants to force Europe to switch to importing more expensive liquefied natural gas. "Those who want to rupture ties between Russia and the EU are behind the acts of sabotage on the Nord Stream," he said. While Russia is still pumping gas to Europe via Ukraine, the explosions on the Baltic pipelines have exacerbated acute energy shortages faced by Europe before the winter season. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline has never brought natural gas to Europe because Germany prevented the flows from ever starting just before Russia launched military action in Ukraine on Feb. 24. Before the explosions, Russia had cut off the parallel Nord Stream 1 pipeline at the center of an energy standoff with Europe. Russia has blamed technical problems for the stoppage, but European leaders call it an attempt to divide them over their support for Ukraine. Plunging Russian gas supplies have caused prices to soar, driving inflation, pressuring governments to help ease the pain of sky-high energy bills for households and businesses and raising fears of rationing and recession. Putin said that one of the two links of the Nord Stream 2 has remained pressurized and appears to be ready for service, adding that its capacity stands at 27 billion cubic meters a year. He noted that if checks prove that the pipeline is safe to operate, Russia stands ready to use it to pump gas to Europe. The Russian leader also said that Russia could increase the capacity of its gas exports to Turkey and eventually turn into a hub for gas supplies to Europe.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 11-12/2022
Are Muslim ‘Officials’ Denying Persecuted Christians Refuge in Europe?
Raymond Ibrahim/October 12/2022
The same Germany that took in over a million Muslim migrants in 2015, and ten thousand non-vetted Afghans in 2021—all people who, by definition, could not be experiencing religious persecution back home as they themselves were Muslim—has refused asylum to a Muslim convert to Christianity, even though one of his relatives was tortured and murdered for the same “crime” of apostasy in his native Iran.
Going under the pseudonym of “Hassan” to protect his identity, the 44-year-old applied for asylum in Germany in 2018. The authorities rejected his testimony on their belief that no one would convert to Christianity after seeing and experiencing what happens to converts in Iran. In this, they were referring to Hassan’s brother-in-law, whom Hassan said introduced him to Christianity, and was later arrested and killed in prison for participating in a house church. German authorities concluded that it was “not particularly likely” that Hassan would become—certainly not remain—a Christian after such an event, as the murder would have a “deterrent effect” on any other would-be converts, namely Hassan.
After Germany closed its doors to him, Hassan took his case to the European Court of Human Rights; it, too, recently denied his appeal. The apostate from Islam is now set to be deported back to the Islamic Republic of Iran, an act that seems the equivalent of sentencing him to death, or at the very least, abandoning him to persecution and imprisonment.
Before German authorities rejected his request for asylum, Hassan had offered the following testimonial to the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees:
My wife’s brother had become a different person by becoming a Christian. We wanted to see if we would get this feeling when we became Christians…. I had had many problems in Iran…I had many [religious] questions, but I was not allowed to ask them. When I asked questions, I was beaten at school. This led me to want to know which God I was facing. One day my brother-in-law said to me and my wife that he had good news. There is a treasure, there is a living God, Jesus Christ, we are His children and not His slaves…He said there is a free salvation available.
As mentioned, his brother-in-law would go on to be imprisoned for his house church activities, and finally murdered for his faith in jail.
The Islamic Republic of Iran, it’s worth noting, is one of the worst nations to persecute Christians—especially Muslim converts. As one human rights group explained back in 2017:
A great many Iranians have been coming to Christ and it’s something which the authorities are clearly very unhappy about. So there are periodic arrests, detentions, [and] imprisonments. There have been a lot of charges lately which are suggesting an even greater clampdown—sentences of 10-15 years in some cases for Christians. And usually, the authorities will suggest that this [is] the result of undermining the state or seeking to collaborate against the state and will use more political charges than say apostasy or blasphemy laws.
Despite this oppressive climate, and rather than be “dissuaded” by the murder of his brother-in-law, Hassan, his wife and children all went on to embrace Christ. Before long, suspicious Iranian security forces stormed and plundered their home of their books, computer, passports, and Bible. Hassan and his family responded by fleeing Iran, eventually reaching Germany.
“In Germany I share the gospel, I organize prayer circles here in the accommodation,” he said. “I want to be a good example, to win the others to faith in Jesus Christ. My greatest goal would be for my children to be able to find Christ in freedom, and to do good.”
Here we come to a critically important though overlooked question: why did the German authorities find Hassan’s testimony—that he became Christian despite knowing the dire consequences—unintelligible in the first place? The simple answer is that, as atheists/materialists, German authorities simply could not believe that anyone would risk their lives just to be Christian.
As Lidia Rieder of ADF, which is assisting Hassan, observes,
There are national and international guidelines for asylum applications based on religious grounds…. Unfortunately, this guidance is being used very selectively by the German decision-makers. They do not understand that maintaining a religious belief when persecuted can be appealing to others and not just a deterrent as seen from the history of Christianity.
There could, however, be another reason that “this guidance is being used very selectively by the German decision-makers”: these decision-makers could themselves be Muslims who are avenging themselves and Islam on these Christ-loving apostates.
For starters, we already know that this exact scenario has played out before. Back in December 2019, CBN News reported:
Christian Syrian refugees … have been blocked from getting help from the United Nations Refugee Agency, the UNHCR, by Muslim UN officials in Jordan. One of the refugees, Hasan, a Syrian convert to Christianity, told us in a phone call that Muslim UN camp officials “knew that we were Muslims and became Christians and they dealt with us with persecution and mockery. They didn’t let us into the office. They ignored our request.” Hasan and his family are now in hiding, afraid that they will be arrested by Jordanian police, or even killed. Converting to Christianity is a serious crime in Jordan.
Similarly, according to Timothy, another Muslim convert to Christianity, “All of the United Nations officials [apparently in Jordan], most of them, 99 percent, they are Muslims, and they were treating us as enemies.”
Addressing this issue, Paul Diamond, a British human rights lawyer, once said:
You have this absurd situation where the scheme is set up to help Syrian refugees and the people most in need, Christians who have been “genocided,” they can’t even get into the U.N. camps to get the food. If you enter and say I am a Christian or convert, the Muslim U.N. guards will block you [from] getting in and laugh at you and mock you and even threaten you…. [saying] “You shouldn’t have converted. You’re an idiot for converting. You get what you get,” words to that effect.
Notable here is that those (Muslim) authorities who deny refuge to Christians habitually mock them and engage in sarcasm—which may well be what the German authorities who denied Hassan were doing when they denied him asylum by essentially saying that no sane person would ever become Christian in light of the consequences.
There are, in fact, many other examples of “Western decision makers” employing sarcasm and mockery in their decisions to deny asylum to persecuted converts. Consider just the United Kingdom’s Home Office, which runs its immigration program. It ridiculed an Iranian female asylum seeker in her rejection letter by writing, “You affirmed in your AIR [Asylum Interview Record] that Jesus is your saviour, but then claimed that he would not be able to save you from the Iranian regime. It is therefore considered that you have no conviction in your faith and your belief in Jesus is half-hearted.”
Discussing her experiences, the rejected woman first explained her plight: “In my country if someone converts to Christianity their punishment is death or execution.” Concerning the asylum process, she said that whenever she responded to her Home Office interviewer, “he was either chuckling or maybe just kind of mocking when he was talking to me…. [H]e asked me why Jesus didn’t help you from the Iranian regime or Iranian authorities.”
Similarly, in his rejection letter from the UK’s Home Office, one Iranian man was told that several biblical passages were “inconsistent” with his claim to have converted to Christianity after discovering it was a “peaceful” faith. The letter went so far as to cite biblical passages—from Exodus, Leviticus, Matthew, and Revelation—to argue that the Bible is violent, before concluding: “These examples are inconsistent with your claim that you converted to Christianity after discovering it is a ‘peaceful’ religion, as opposed to Islam which contains violence, rage and revenge.”
In short, it seems that some Muslims in the West have gained the power and authority to do what they do in the Muslim world—discriminate against if not send Christians and apostates off to their deaths.
https://www.raymondibrahim.com/2022/10/12/are-muslim-officials-denying-persecuted-christians-refuge-in-europe/

The Women vs. the Mullahs
Bernard-Henri/The Tablet/October 12/2022
It’s time for the West to match the bravery of the protesters, and stop accommodating their executioners
he Iranian regime and its henchmen will stop at nothing to crush the Hair Revolt.
These doddering mullahs capable of beating to death a woman who wears the veil askew, these turbaned police whose souls are as naked as the terror that a woman’s face inspires in them, these serial killers who never let a day pass without lengthening the list of their femicides—this time, they’ll go all the way.
Iran is on the edge of a cliff.
The regime is desperate, pitiless, and ready, if unchecked, to make rivers of blood flow in the streets, as they cripple another generation of young Iranians into submission.
And I write these lines in fear and trembling, eyes glued to a photo of ​​Mahsa Jina Amini, the Kurdish student who started it all, with her hair floating free, but on a hospital bed, by a respirator incapable of saving her.
And yet …
The countryside, like the urban centers, has been won over by the revolt.
The fury goes from universities in Tehran to far-off Baluchistan, aflame after the rape, by a police officer, of a protester.
Twenty-seven provinces, out of the country’s 31, are rising up in solidarity with Amini and the dozens, perhaps hundreds of women murdered after her, fanning the winds of revolt.
In Ardabil, it’s the green flags of the anti-riot units that retreat in a deadly game of hide-and-seek that the insurgents inflict on them.
What is visible to even the most disillusioned observer is the strength of a movement that seems willing to stop at nothing to achieve its goals.
Their demand this time is not, as it was in 2009, a transparent election, or as it was in 2019, a drop in fuel prices. They demand the toppling of a regime that can offer them nothing and should just be sent to the bins of history.
“Barayé,” the protesters sing.
That is, in English, “For” (life, liberty, women).
It’s 1979 upside down. It’s the true uprising of the spirit, faultily announced, at the time, by Michel Foucault. It’s go-for-broke time.
In these redoubtable days, where the planet plays Russian roulette, Iran is having its Ukraine moment.
The singularity of this moment lies in the role of women.
Veils being burnt in the streets, like breaking chains, in scenes where, despite nightsticks and bullets, hair, face, beauty is reborn.
Among the more timid, the demand is whispered under a thin square of fabric, laying lightly on the temples, so light that, like with Amini, the day the morality police arrested her, one nearly confused it with hair—what a long way from the black veil, so severe, of another woman, Sakineh, who was saved from death by stoning through international public outcry.
Iran is being reborn by its women.
It is they who, like the “heavenly saints” in Arthur Rimbaud’s A Season in Hell, have the honor of “healing the ferocious wounded.”
This “pyramid of martyrs,” about whom another poet would have said “haunts the earth,” is not just a tomb: It’s a monument to the glory of a people kept hostage, who, with one voice, clamor for liberty.
Many are surprised by these women’s gesture of not just showing their hair, but of cutting it.
And they see something almost cruel, sacrificial—like a violence done to their own beauty.
There is something to that, of course.
There is the dark memory of the riots in 2014 when, in solidarity with women whose heads were shaven in Evin prison, hundreds of their sisters did the same sublime and fateful act.
But of the little I know of Persian literature, the Book of Kings tells another story: women soldiers for whom shaved heads were a symbol of either great grief, or inextinguishable rage, or of preparation for battle, like that of Gordafarid and Sohrab.
Magnificent poetry.
Heroism nourished by a prodigious past.
It’s either that or the “cabbage-headed mullahs” of Sadegh Hedayat who, left to their own devices, would reduce to ashes one of the world’s great civilizations.
The other question, as in Ukraine, is whether the free world will show its face or not, and—faced with an enemy (Khamenei … Putin …) who is also their own—be up to the task.
It would require a mobilization of souls.
An increase in the sanctions that the revolutionaries wish on Tehran.
The expulsion and recall of ambassadors, resolutions with actual consequences in the U.N. Security Council.
It would require all feminists to support the daring women of Iran, who risk their lives daily for an end to their decadeslong imprisonment by medieval fanatics, in this unconscionable, real-world telling of The Handmaid’s Tale, by no longer accepting forms of subjugation that they reject in their own countries.
It would require all the implicated countries, starting with the United States, to leave their embarrassing “nuclear negotiation,” which will always be—so long as the ruling obscenity police in Qom are prepared to drown in blood a single line of red lipstick—a fruitless charade.
We have done so well with Ukraine!
We stood, with such unity, against Putin!
We should have the same resolve in front of this new affront!
More than ever, we should say “no accommodation with our radical enemies.”
Western accommodation of evil regimes has a poor track record. It is bad strategy in a world that is never short on demons. It makes a mockery of the rights and freedoms consecrated by the blood of generations of our best thinkers and fighters. It suggests that our most deeply held beliefs and most painful sacrifices are deserving of the cynical mockery of those whose world is founded on torture chambers, on the breaking of bodies, and of the enslaving of minds to the moronic aims of dictators.
Nothing is as fragile as a liberating storm.
Will we heed this liberating call? Or, to speak like another poet, this time, Charles Baudelaire, will Hope, defeated, plant his black flag?
*Bernard-Henri Lévy is a philosopher, activist, filmmaker, and author of more than 30 books including The Genius of Judaism, American Vertigo, Barbarism with a Human Face, Who Killed Daniel Pearl?, and The Empire and the Five Kings. His new book, The Will to See: Dispatches from a World of Misery and Hope, was published on October 25, 2021 by Yale University Press.
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/women-vs-mullahs-iran-bernard-henri-levy

Palestinians' New Enemy: British Prime Minister Liz Truss
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute./October 12, 2022
The defamation campaign against the British prime minister is yet another sign of the ongoing radicalization of Palestinians not only against Israel, but anyone who dares to say a good word about Israel. This radicalization is the result of the massive campaign by Palestinian officials and media outlets to delegitimize Israel and demonize Jews.
The campaign coincides with the Palestinian leaders' continued talk about their commitment to the so-called two-state solution.
If the Palestinian leaders are so committed to the "two-state solution," they should cease and desist from their lethal incitement against Israel.
It is this campaign of hate that is the real obstacle for peace between Israel and the Palestinians. For many years, the Western countries that fund the Palestinians have utterly ignored Palestinian incitement against Israel.
Now, as is evident from the attacks on the British prime minister, Western leaders are themselves becoming victims of the Palestinians' smear campaigns. This is what happens when Western governments lavish untold millions of dollars on the Palestinians without requiring accountability and without demanding an end to the venomous Palestinian rhetoric against Israel and Jews.
British Prime Minister Liz Truss is facing a smear campaign by the Palestinians. The defamation campaign is yet another sign of the ongoing radicalization of Palestinians. As is evident from the attacks on the British prime minister, Western leaders are themselves becoming victims of the Palestinians' smear campaigns. Pictured: Truss delivers her keynote address at the Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham, England, on October 5, 2022. (Photo by Paul Ellis/AFP via Getty Images)
British Prime Minister Liz Truss is facing a smear campaign by the Palestinians because she dared to publicly state her support for Israel. Truss is also under attack because she talked about the possibility of moving the British Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
The campaign against the British PM is reminiscent of the slander the Palestinians used to direct against some of US President Donald Trump's senior advisers and representatives, including Ambassador David Friedman, Jason Greenblatt and Jared Kushner. Like Truss, the Trump administration officials were targeted because of their support for Israel.
Palestinian leaders have demonstrated over the years that they do not hesitate to use slurs and derogatory remarks against any Western official who dares to voice support for Israel or does not share their hatred of Israel. For these leaders, anyone who articulates support for Israel is a "racist" and "extremist."
The Palestinian attacks on pro-Israel Westerners aims to intimidate and bully them and dissuade others from expressing similar views. The Palestinian message to these Westerners: "If you side with Israel, you are hateful and racist Zionists" – meaning , "If you are not a Jew, you might as well be: you are just as horrible as one."
In 2018, Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas described then US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman (who is Jewish) as a "son of a dog." In another instance, Abbas expressed hope that God would "destroy" Friedman's house.
Palestinian columnists affiliated with Abbas often referred to Friedman as a "racist Zionist" and a "fascist settler."
Similarly, Trump's two (Jewish) senior advisers, Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt, were also denounced by the Palestinians as "extremist Zionists" and "spokesmen for the Israeli government."
"Jason Greenblatt, Jared Kushner and David Friedman are nothing but a bunch of extremist Zionists carrying out the agenda of [former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu," said Mustafa Barghouti, a former Palestinian presidential candidate in 2019.
Nikki Haley, who is not Jewish and served as US Ambassador to the United Nations under the Trump administration, was regularly condemned by the Palestinians for supporting Israel. The PLO's Popular front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), a terror group known for hijacking aircraft and carrying out countless terrorist attacks against Israel, described Haley as being "more Zionist than [Theodor] Herzl," the Austro-Hungarian Jewish political activist who was the father of modern political Zionism.
Earlier this month, British Prime Minister Liz Truss told a Conservative Friends of Israel audience that she is a "huge Zionist and huge supporter of Israel" and once again pledged that she would "take the UK-Israel relationship from strength to strength."
Speaking at the Conservative Party Conference event in Birmingham, she raised serious concerns over Iran's nuclear ambitions.
"Believe me, the UK will never allow – together with our allies – Iran to get a nuclear weapon," she said.
"In this world – where we are facing threats from authoritarian regimes who don't believe in freedom and democracy – two free democracies, the UK and Israel, need to stand shoulder to shoulder and we will be even closer in the future."
Earlier, Truss was quoted as saying that she was considering relocating the British Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
Unsurprisingly, the British PM's statements in support of Israel have turned her into the new enemy of the Palestinians.
"Is Liz Truss an agent of the Israeli Mossad who was implanted in the Conservative Party?" asked veteran Palestinian journalist Nasser Lahham. "Is she infected with the Zionism virus?"
Lahham, who is closely associated with the Palestinian Authority leadership, denounced the British prime minister as "ignorant, petty and a fool." He also urged the Palestinian leadership to declare Truss as persona non grata.
The Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP), another PLO faction, condemned Truss for "symbolizing the British colonial mentality. Wissam Zagbar, a senior DFLP official, said:
"We are not surprised by Truss's statements because Britain still refuses to admit its responsibility for the great historical sin it committed through the Balfour Declaration."
Former PA official Hassan Asfour also launched a scathing attack on the British prime minister, dubbing her a "racist Zionist" and telling her: "Screw you!"
The Iranian-backed Hamas terrorist group, for its part, condemned Truss for her "total bias" in favor of Israel and called on the Palestinians to continue the fight "until the end of the Zionist occupation from all Palestinian soil," a euphemism for the elimination of Israel.
The defamation campaign against the British PM is yet another sign of the ongoing radicalization of Palestinians not only against Israel, but anyone who dares to say a good word about Israel. This radicalization is the result of the massive campaign by Palestinian officials and media outlets to delegitimize Israel and demonize Jews.
The campaign coincides with the Palestinian leaders' continued talk about their commitment to the so-called two-state solution. Last week, senior Palestinian official Hussein al-Sheikh, a leading candidate to succeed the 87-year-old Mahmoud Abbas, met in Washington with a number of Biden administration officials, including National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and other senior officials.
"We discussed the latest developments and the need to protect and preserve the two-state solution," said al-Sheikh after the meeting. "[We discussed] launching a political horizon and stopping all unilateral measures that destroy this solution."
If the Palestinian leaders are so committed to the "two-state solution," they should cease and desist from their lethal incitement against Israel. This campaign is encouraging young Palestinians to launch more terrorist attacks against Israelis.
It is this campaign of hate that is the real obstacle for peace between Israel and the Palestinians. For many years, the Western countries that fund the Palestinians have utterly ignored Palestinian incitement against Israel.
Now, as is evident from the attacks on the British prime minister, Western leaders are themselves becoming victims of the Palestinians' smear campaigns. This is what happens when Western governments lavish untold millions of dollars on the Palestinians without requiring accountability and without demanding an end to the venomous Palestinian rhetoric against Israel and Jews.
*Khaled Abu Toameh is an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Communist China's Belt and Road Initiative Trashing the Environment
Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/October 12, 2022
"What we are seeing is not development. This is exploitation." — Ahmed Manjang, Gambian biologist, Yahoo News, March 30 2021.
In addition to the fishmeal factories, China's distant water fishing fleet is depleting the fish stocks of Western Africa, adding to the pressure on supply....
"Across the globe, on nearly every continent, China is involved in a dizzying variety of resource extraction, energy, agricultural, and infrastructure projects — roads, railroads, hydropower dams, mines — that are wreaking unprecedented damage to ecosystems and biodiversity." — Professor William Laurance, James Cook University, Cairns, Australia, Yale E360, March 28, 2017.
"Chinese-backed hydropower projects along the Mekong River – which spans Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam – have seen dams cause river flow changes and block fish migration, leading to a loss of livelihood for communities there which live-off the river. Fish stocks have declined in recent years due to hydropower dams built upstream in Cambodia and neighbouring countries." — World Wildlife Fund.
The WWF listed more than 1,700 critical biodiversity spots and 265 threatened species that would be adversely affected by the BRI.
[T]he Chinese Communist Party is also using BRI "to perpetuate the use of coal and other fossil fuels – pretty much everywhere BRI touches... And that means increasing greenhouse gas emissions". — Yale Climate Connections, February 17, 2020.
"Most of China's energy financing goes toward nonrenewable sources. Between 2014 and 2017, 91 percent of energy-sector loans made by six major Chinese banks to BRI countries were for fossil fuel projects.... In 2016, China was involved in 240 coal plants in BRI countries, a number that has likely grown." — Council on Foreign Relations, March 31, 2021.
The environmental damage the Chinese Communist Party is causing through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is immeasurable. The government in Sierra Leone recently sold off to China 250 acres of protected rainforest and beach land -- an ecotourism spot with rare and endangered marine species. Pictured: Tokeh Beach in Sierra Leone, near Western Area Peninsula National Park, part of which has been sold off to China, with critics calling that move a "catastrophic human and ecological disaster". (Photo by Issouf Sanogo/AFP/Getty Images)
The environmental damage the Chinese Communist Party is causing through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is immeasurable. According to Professor William Laurance of James Cook University in Cairns, Australia:
"Across the globe, on nearly every continent, China is involved in a dizzying variety of resource extraction, energy, agricultural, and infrastructure projects — roads, railroads, hydropower dams, mines — that are wreaking unprecedented damage to ecosystems and biodiversity,"
The most recent example of the BRI's environmental devastation is West Africa. The government in Sierra Leone recently sold off to Communist China 250 acres of protected rainforest and beach land -- an ecotourism spot with rare and endangered marine species. The plan, according to Sierra Leone, is to build a fishing harbor there. Critics, however, call it a "catastrophic human and ecological disaster". Several do not believe that the plan is for a harbor but rather for a fishmeal factory. Activists are seeking to stop the project.
Critics have reason to be concerned: In nearby Gambia, in 2016, the Chinese Communist Party company Golden Lead, as part of the BRI built a fishmeal factory in the coastal city of Gunjur. Fishmeal, ground fish made into a powder to feed fish raised in aquaculture -- fish farming -- across the world, including in China and Norway, is a billion dollar industry. Aquaculture, in fact, accounts for roughly half of the world's fish consumption. Shortly after the fishmeal factory had begun operating, wildlife in the lagoon of the local wildlife reserve, Bolong Fenyo, began to die of illegal toxic waste from the factory. Despite widespread local protests, Gambia, a country that depends on foreign investment reportedly continues to allow the waste.
"The fishmeal business is wreaking havoc on the environment, local employment, food security and the tourism economy, scientists, Gambian activists and locals have warned," wrote the Guardian in March 2019.
"What we are seeing is not development," Gambian biologist Ahmed Manjang said. "This is exploitation."
In addition to the fishmeal factories, China's distant water fishing fleet is depleting the fish stocks of Western Africa, adding to the pressure on supply.
To grasp the global challenge that the Belt and Road Initiative poses to the environment worldwide, it is useful to recall just how wide BRI's geographical scope is: Chinese President Xi Jinping launched BRI in 2013 to build a land-based "Silk Road Economic Belt," and a sea-based "21st Century Maritime Silk Road". The plan was -- and remains -- to build an enormous network of roads, railways, tunnels, dams, airports, ports, energy pipelines, power plants, telecommunications networks etc. that will connect China to Central and South Asia, the Middle East and Europe. The sea-based part of the initiative will connect China to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe and even Latin America via major sea-lanes. The sea-based part now even includes what China has called its "Polar Silk Road", which would create new shipping routes linking Asia and Europe via the Arctic.
It is estimated that around 139 countries in the world have joined BRI to some extent or another, showing the tremendous geographical scope of the initiative.
The environmental damage, therefore, has not been limited to West Africa, but affects several other locations where BRI projects have been launched.
In Indonesia, for instance, China's largest hydropower construction company, Sinohydro, is building a huge hydropower dam in the Batang Toru rainforest in Sumatra. The dam threatens to destroy the existence of the rarest ape in the world, the Tapanuli orangutan, only 800 of which remain in the wild. The Batang Toru forest is also home to the critically endangered Sumatran tiger and Sunda pangolin.
Tigers, already a hugely endangered species, are also threatened in other locations by the BRI. In Asia, "Nearly 24,000 km of new roads will be built in TCLs (tiger conservation landscapes) by 2050, stimulated through major investment projects such as China's Belt and Road Initiative," according to an April 2020 study, published in the journal Science Advances.
A 2019 study by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) noted that BRI's infrastructure projects have also caused changes and damage to various fragile ecosystems in Southeast Asia:
"Chinese-backed hydropower projects along the Mekong River – which spans Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam – have seen dams cause river flow changes and block fish migration, leading to a loss of livelihood for communities there which live-off the river. Fish stocks have declined in recent years due to hydropower dams built upstream in Cambodia and neighbouring countries...
"Apart from the loss of flora and fauna, deforestation in areas such as the Pan Borneo Highway – which spans Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei – also causes landslides, floods and other disaster mitigation concerns."
The WWF listed more than 1,700 critical biodiversity spots and 265 threatened species that would be adversely affected by the BRI.
The Chinese Communist Party also plays a large role in driving deforestation around the globe. Already in 2012, before BRI was officially launched, China was the world's leading importer of illegal timber, according to the London-based Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA). According to the NGO FairPlanet, Chinese traders depleted Benin and Gambia of rosewood before moving onto Nigeria, where, in 2017, the EIA disclosed that 1.4 million illegally harvested logs of rosewood, with a market value of $300 million, were smuggled into China after bribes to Nigerian government officials.
Currently, according to a recent report in the Financial Times, Chinese banks are the second largest financers of commodities implicated in tropical rainforest deforestation:
"The state-owned Industrial and Commercial Bank of China was the largest provider of loans and underwriting services in the database, at a total value of $2.2bn. Sinochem, a Chinese state-owned chemicals group, was the largest recipient, collecting $4.6bn, most of it for its rubber business."
BRI is not only threatening forests and animal species with extinction. Environmentalists also consider the BRI to have potentially negative consequences for the climate: the Chinese Communist Party is also using BRI "to perpetuate the use of coal and other fossil fuels – pretty much everywhere BRI touches... And that means increasing greenhouse gas emissions".
According to Jennifer Hillman and Alex Tippett, writing for the Council on Foreign Relations in March 2021:
"Since the creation of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), billions of dollars in Chinese funds have flowed toward fossil fuel projects around the world. These investments promise to make climate change mitigation far more difficult...
"To date, the energy and transportation sectors have been the primary focus of BRI investment, with energy estimated to compose 44 percent of all BRI spending.
"Most of China's energy financing goes toward nonrenewable sources. Between 2014 and 2017, 91 percent of energy-sector loans made by six major Chinese banks to BRI countries were for fossil fuel projects. In 2018, 40 percent of energy sector lending went to coal projects. In 2016, China was involved in 240 coal plants in BRI countries, a number that has likely grown."
*Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Insight into As-Suwayda’s Position in the Syrian Situation
Ishtar Al Shami/Fikra Forum/The Washington Institute/October 12/2022
As-Suwayda has been unstable since the onset of the Syrian revolution. The increasingly fractured political leadership in this majority-Druze region reflects how Syria’s ongoing conflict has warped and splintered local governance.
The As-Suwayda governorate and its surrounding countryside is located in the southernmost corner of Syria, consisting of the mountainous Hawran region—including the Jabal al-Arab, or Jabal al-Druze—and interspersed with Syria’s southern plains. A direct neighbor of the Daraa governorate, in which the first anti-Assad demonstrations were launched on March 18, 2011, As-Suwayda has long been an important player in the Syrian conflict, a reality aided by As-Suwayda’s unique demographic makeup and the corresponding symbolism of Jabal al-Arab.
Indeed, Jabal al-Arab and the As-Suwayda area is inhabited by a majority Syrian Druze population, with a small Christian presence and a few nomadic Sunni Arab Bedouin tribes, although the latter have mostly settled in small villages closer to Daraa and Palmyra. According to several studies, the Druze inhabitants in As-Suwayda made up approximately 90% of the population prior to 2011, while the Christians constituted only 7%, and the Bedouins 3%.
The Druze are an ethno-religious sect spread throughout Syria, Lebanon, and Israel, with the community in Lebanon wielding most of the religious authority. According to the sect’s hierarchy, a “Sheikh-Aql” is elected in each country to lead the local Druze community. Sheikh Mowafaq Tarif leads the sect’s sheikhdom in Israel, while the Druze community in As-Suwayda and the surrounding area is led by three Sheikhs: Hikmat al-Hajri—the Prime Sheikh-Aql in Jabal al-Arab—Yusuf al-Jarboa, and Hamoud al-Hinawi.
Today, each of Syria’s Druze Sheikhs has attempted to occupy a different political niche, a fact that clearly reflects the growing complexity of the Syrian conflict. While al-Hajiri is considered relatively neutral by Syrian political standards—promoting a balanced relationship with the regime and Russia while also supporting the local community against the regime and the Iranian militias—al-Jarboa is considered a close ally of Assad, and al-Hinawi occupies a middle space between the existing local powers, the regime, and Iran. These local divisions are far from unexpected.
The Evolution of As-Suwayda’s Leadership
The first organized movement in As-Suwayda was formed in 2013 by the cleric Sheikh Wahid al-Balous, who became the de facto leader of the Men of Dignity Movement in 2014, also known as the Sheikhs of Dignity. At the time, al-Balous publicly supported his people when they refused to send their sons to the Syrian fronts, as ordered by the regime, and his stance gained him significant local popularity.
Importantly, al-Balous was not initially in total opposition to the Assad regime. Instead, he publicly emphasized the desire for consistency and status quo in As-Suwayda—including the continued presence of the regime—as long as it served the interests of the people. However, al-Balous went on to oppose the regime clearly and publicly in 2015, even going so far as to threaten Assad and his security officers with revolution in As-Suwayda. Al-Balous’ bold statements resulted in two assassination attempts against him by the regime, the second of which succeeded in killing him.
After al-Balous’ death, the once-united factions in As-Suwayda quickly divided and multiplied into numerous offshoots. One such offshoot is the Sheikhs of Dignity Forces, led by al-Balous’ son Laith al-Balous. Classified as an opposition faction, Laith al-Balous and his Sheikhs of Dignity have openly accused the Assad regime, Hezbollah, and Iran of assassinating Laith’s father. On the opposite side of the split, the Men of Dignity Movement was briefly led by Sheikh Ra’fat al-Balous, and now by Abu Hassan Yahya al-Hajjar since 2017.
Beyond this main split, there are several other, less active factions now operating in As-Suwayda, most of them based on sectarian foundations and increasingly aligned with a multitude of players involved in the conflict.
Open imageiconSuwayda Groups_EN
For its part, Iran’s factions guarantee the Iranian regime a strong presence in As-Suwayda through a number of means. While Russia is largely considered the guarantor and controller of the Military Intelligence Division in Syria, for example, the Military Security branch in As-Suwayda—although affiliated with the General Military Intelligence Division—is under Iran’s influence. Iran-backed factions are also heavily involved in the smuggling of captagon across the Syrian-Jordanian border, exploiting the growing divisions and occasional upheavals in As-Suwayda, and in the process causing a major border control crisis for Jordanian authorities.
In addition to Iran, As-Suwayda is socially and religiously linked to the Syrian Golan, which is controlled by Israel. As a result, there have been attempts by the Israeli Druze Sheikh, Mowafaq Tarif, to bring the Syrian Druze Sheikhs under his influence. For instance, Tarif championed the Syrian Druze community’s demand to be clearly mentioned in the Syrian constitution, advocating strongly for it during his visit to Moscow in February 2022. Although Tarif has not yet achieved clear results in reframing the configuration of the Israeli-Syrian Druze relationship, local sources have confirmed that several meetings have taken place in As-Suwayda and Daraa to discuss the unification of local factions—a move encouraged by Tarif, yet opposed by the Assad regime.
According to the same sources, a figure called Ahmed al-Awda—commander of the Eighth Brigade in the Russian Fifth Corps—seems to be the stumbling block preventing any mutual understanding. More specifically, locals seem to believe that the UAE is currently playing the role of mediator alongside Israel, with the two countries insisting on having Ahmed al-Awda take over the security leadership in both Daraa and As-Suwayda in the event of unification between the governorates’ factions for the purpose of expelling the Assad regime and Iran. In turn, the people of As-Suwayda have apparently rejected al-Awda, blaming him for military clashes between the local Daraa and As-Suwayda factions in 2020.
As-Suwayda’s Current Reality
As the Assad regime continues to employ a policy of violence against its own citizens under regime control, As-Suwayda and the Druze community is facing a real crisis regarding their place in the conflict. Indeed, the governorate seems to be stuck between the hammer of the regime’s violence and the anvil of growing sectarianism and worsening living conditions—especially in view of the influx of internal refugees from other parts of Syria, doubling the demographic size of the province. Meanwhile, the Druze community has been unable to form clear relationships with other opposition factions, especially Islamist ones, whose presence has grown across Syria.
The active local forces that have formed in the As-Suwayda region have hence developed numerous affiliations, some linked to the regime and others decidedly anti-regime. Making matters more complicated, these forces have often clashed with each other even as they try to safeguard the province against the return of ISIS, which still has cells in the area. They are simultaneously working to ward off the regime’s repeated attempts to reassert its authority. The most recent clash occurred about a month ago, when opposition factions eliminated the Fajr Forces Movement led by Raji Falhout, a group linked to the Military Intelligence Division and Iran. Reports indicate that Falhout was forced to flee.
Today, the local community in As-Suwayda seems overwhelmingly exhausted by the major conflicts, growing violence—including incidents of kidnapping, theft, looting, and murder—and the constant interferences of the regime and other outside forces in their region. Many in the local population still refuse to send their sons into the regime’s military service, especially as their grievances against Assad grow.
One notable local observer from As-Suwayda characterized opinions there as “currently rooted in despair, after the mounting economic hardship reached the point of threatening their lives, or at least their dignified lives. Therefore, the aspirations of the public have declined precipitously—from ideas about rebuilding the country or aspirations to participate in political and public life, to concerns about making ends meet.”
The interviewee noted that the opinions of local elites no longer make much of an impact on general opinion, though locals likewise lack any expectations from the Assad regime, as they “realize that the regime is completely bankrupt and no longer able to achieve anything for the benefit of the people.”
These people blame the regime for leaving As-Suwayda to fend for itself against ISIS for years, and they now resent the regime for moving most of ISIS’s members from the Yarmouk camp to the Badiya As-Suwayda area. Such a move has allowed the regime to use the threat of ISIS prisoners breaking out, bolstered by the memory of devastating attacks in the area in 2018, as a tool against As-Suwayda whenever anti-regime protests erupt—a regular occurrence.
According to an As-Suwayda woman from a prominent family who now lives abroad, the people of As-Suwayda have “no positive expectations” that the regime will serve their interests. Aware that “the Assad regime is the one directing, promoting, and financing” violence in the governorate, As-Suwayda’s residents have taken up the fight—both literally, and through civil means such as the “local civilian peace movement.” Still, the regime will be hard to counter through local efforts alone.
In the absence of an internal Syrian solution and amid worsening economic and living conditions, the best option for the people of As-Suwayda today may be to engage with their neighbors, Jordan and Israel. The influential Druze community in Israel, for example, could be the gateway for As-Suwayda to open a relationship with the Israelis that provides more stability for this area.
Already, local residents in As-Suwayda stress that, as it stands, the region is practically outside the scope of Syria. Case in point, a barrier in the al-Adiliya area near the Jourat al-Sheyyab intersection, while initially established as a military faction checkpoint, now essentially functions as a border crossing between one country and another—between lands securely under regime control and the unstable As-Suwayda region. Those who cross are subject to inspections, interrogations, disclosures of their identification and family background, and vehicle checks—with the end result usually being bribes or blackmail.
An activist living outside of the country likewise reflected on the responsibilities of those living abroad to those who remain in As-Suwayda: “Their goal is to convey the voice of those inside who believe in the slogan “if no restructuring, then no reform,” that is, no reform is possible without serious change. They believe the whole world has abandoned Syrians. There is enough legal justification to justify a push for regime change, but the international community has never been serious about that.”
Indeed, international outreach is not a solution accepted by all. According to a local observer in the As-Suwayda community, some “fear [they] will be left to beg at the doors of the major countries.” Referencing the United States’ support for Israel in the face of Palestine’s “right to self-determination,” the observer expressed concern about false promises and ulterior motives from world powers attempting to get involved in Syria, while noting that much of the general public, in his opinion, looks mainly for a removal of Caesar sanctions from the United States, which they see as contributing to their economic plight. Similarly, the As-Suwayda native now abroad explained that “the people of Jabal are frustrated with all those who call themselves ‘friends of the Syrian people.’”
Nevertheless, as the situation gets more critical—both in terms of security and human rights—the people of As-Suwayda will soon find themselves facing tough questions about who to trust, as there are few signs that the area’s prospects will improve with its current fractured state.
*Ishtar Al Shami is a Syrian writer and activist.

The SDF Is Caught Between Turkey and the Islamic State Again
Ido Levy/The Washington Institute/October 12/2022
As happened with past incursions, Erdogan’s latest invasion threats and preparatory strikes are fatally distracting the SDF from its crucial counterterrorism mission—and at a time when jihadist activities against it are on the rise.
On September 28, the U.S.-allied Syrian Democratic Forces announced the seizure of one of the largest Islamic State weapons caches since early 2019, when the terrorist group lost its last parcel of territory. Both the size of the discovery and its location are a testament to the growing threat that IS poses in northeast Syria. According to the SDF, the cache contained around 200 rocket-propelled grenades, 600 AK-47 magazines, and 21,000 rounds of ammunition, all located on a farm in al-Qairawan village near Tal Hamis—that is, within fifty miles of the key SDF town of Qamishli to the north and the vulnerable al-Hawl displaced persons camp to the south.
Meanwhile, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly threatened since May to launch another military incursion into Syria, for the fifth time since 2016. Any such operation, if it happens, will depend on diplomatic wrangling between Ankara, Iran, Russia, and Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, as well as Erdogan’s calculations regarding Turkey’s upcoming elections, deteriorating economy, and military activity in northern Iraq. Per his recent statements and pro-government media reportage, Erdogan’s ideal goal for an invasion would be to target Tal Rifaat, Manbij, and Kobane in order to oust the People’s Defense Units (YPG), the Kurdish force that serves as the SDF’s military backbone but which Turkey considers a terrorist organization. Yet he would likely settle for just one of these targets—presumably Tal Rifaat, the least politically sensitive option—depending on U.S. acquiescence and what he achieves diplomatically.
In any event, Ankara’s overarching strategy remains the same: to confine the Kurdish-dominated SDF to its eastern holdings or at least break up its territory into noncontiguous enclaves, in line with Erdogan’s repeatedly stated intention to create a “security area” extending thirty kilometers into Syria. Yet carrying out this plan could seriously compromise U.S. and SDF efforts to prevent an IS resurgence, so Washington should take urgent steps to ensure that Turkey backs off.
An Emboldened IS
Despite ongoing counterterrorism efforts, IS has recently been gathering strength in northeast Syria and intensifying its activities in SDF territory. Interestingly, this is not reflected in the group’s official attack statistics: via its weekly al-Naba newspaper, IS claimed 224 attacks in Syria between January and September, a decrease of more than 28 percent from the same period last year. Yet the group has recently underreported its activities in Syria, likely to conceal its capabilities in preparation for larger operations. Indeed, one report found that it claimed only 25 percent of the attacks it carried out in the Badia region in 2020 and early 2021. Another study discovered stark underreporting last year, especially in Hasaka, leading up to the group’s large-scale but unsuccessful assault on that province’s al-Sinaa prison.
Regarding the September 28 weapons seizure, the SDF stated that it discovered the cache after interrogations conducted during its latest sweep in al-Hawl, which resulted in the arrest of some 300 IS operatives. According to the SDF, these interrogations further revealed that IS was planning to use the cache to assault al-Hawl, indicating that its Syrian cells may still be capable of planning large operations.
IS activities inside al-Hawl likewise point to the group’s enduring organizational strength. In addition to the reported arrests, the twenty-four-day SDF operation in the camp freed IS captives and seized explosives and military equipment that cells were likely stockpiling for a future operation. These preparations are reminiscent of the al-Sinaa assault, which paired a multi-axis IS attack with a simultaneous revolt inside the prison.
IS operatives have also become more brazen about attacking the SDF directly. One senior member of the force noted that IS has significantly increased its targeting of SDF personnel, often posting imagery of these actions online. For example, after killing six SDF members in Deir al-Zour on September 11, the group published a photo of their corpses. Operatives inside al-Hawl have reacted more aggressively to SDF raids as well, in one instance killing two fighters.
The Erdogan Factor
The uptick in IS attacks has occurred within a more permissive environment exacerbated by Erdogan’s threats of invasion. Turkish forces have already intensified their campaign of drone strikes and shelling against SDF positions, directly targeting commanders and civilian officials whom Ankara claims are members of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a designated Turkish terrorist organization. As of September, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) had reported fifty-eight Turkish drone strikes on the SDF this year, killing fifty-six fighters and ten civilians. The fatalities included SDF deputy commander Salwa Yousef, who gained much respect within the U.S. military for her courage and contributions to the war against IS.
The Qamishli-based Rojava Information Center has counted even more Turkish drone strikes, reporting sixty-two in just one month (July 19 to August 18) while noting that drone flights over northeast Syria tripled during this period. It also logged near-daily artillery and mortar shelling of villages along SDF frontlines by both the Turkish military and the Syrian National Army, Ankara’s Syrian proxy militia coalition; these attacks reportedly killed twenty-nine fighters and seventy-five civilians.
Consequently, SDF leaders have felt compelled to focus more on preparing for a potential Turkish invasion and increasing their force protection measures—all at the expense of the fight against IS. This situation evokes past reductions in SDF capacity prior to Turkey’s three major military operations against the group (an early 2020 air campaign was more focused on protecting Idlib jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham from the Assad regime):
Operation Euphrates Shield (August 2016-March 2017): Turkish forces seized Jarabulus, al-Rai, and al-Bab from IS, with the goal of preventing SDF expansion into those areas and establishing a base for follow-on operations against the Kurdish-led force. The operation delayed the SDF campaign to liberate the IS capital of Raqqa to June 2017.
Operation Olive Branch (January-March 2018): Turkish forces seized Afrin from the SDF, delaying the latter’s campaign to liberate the last bits of IS territory to late 2018; a large IS counteroffensive in October-November pushed back the SDF’s frontlines, which were weakened after fighters deployed elsewhere to oppose Turkish forces.
Operation Peace Spring (October-November 2019): Turkish forces seized Ras al-Ain and Tal Abyad from the SDF; afterward, IS attack claims increased by 20 percent, and SDF raids against the group halted for a month, contributing to a general pause in coalition counterterrorism activities.
Indeed, Turkey’s strategy of launching incursions into Syria has repeatedly set back the fight against IS and is doing so again today. At a time when the terrorist group is measurably gathering strength in the northeast and more brazenly striking the SDF, now is a particularly dangerous moment for an external shock that could erase the progress Washington and its partners have made.
Policy Implications
The United States should take action to prevent President Erdogan from making good on his invasion threats. International diplomatic pressure has been helpful in this regard, but more is needed to curb Turkey’s drone strikes and shelling of SDF positions. The Biden administration should take a tougher stance on the matter, even threatening to reverse the planned sale of F-16 fighter jets to Ankara if it does not back off. In addition, some of the 900 U.S. troops stationed in Syria should be repositioned closer to Turkish-occupied areas and the northern border, thereby reassuring Washington’s SDF allies while helping to deter further Turkish attacks.
The administration should also consider sanctioning certain leaders on the local councils established to govern Turkish-occupied areas of Syria. Some of these figures have been accused of malign activities, from perpetrating human rights abuses against Kurdish populations to serving as conduits for Turkish support to jihadist groups (e.g., prominent Syrian National Army elements such as Ahrar al-Sham; the U.S.-designated terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham).
In the longer term, Washington should continue doing what it can to strengthen the SDF and build up northeast Syria’s economy and infrastructure. The recent exemption of SDF territories from U.S. Caesar Act sanctions is a welcome step, but open border crossings and better security are needed to spur economic growth—improvements that may require Washington’s help to resolve longstanding issues between the SDF and the neighboring Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq. Meanwhile, continued financial support is needed to enhance SDF detention facilities and ease pressure on the force so it can focus more on the counter-IS fight. But all these efforts will be in jeopardy if Turkey invades again.
*Ido Levy is an associate fellow with The Washington Institute’s Military and Security Studies Program and a PhD student at American University’s School of International Service.