English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 09/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.october09.22.htm

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Bible Quotations For today
I tell you, anyone who hears my word and believes him who sent me has eternal life, and does not come under judgement, but has passed from death to life.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 05/24-30/:”Very truly, I tell you, anyone who hears my word and believes him who sent me has eternal life, and does not come under judgement, but has passed from death to life. ‘Very truly, I tell you, the hour is coming, and is now here, when the dead will hear the voice of the Son of God, and those who hear will live. For just as the Father has life in himself, so he has granted the Son also to have life in himself; and he has given him authority to execute judgement, because he is the Son of Man. Do not be astonished at this; for the hour is coming when all who are in their graves will hear his voice and will come out those who have done good, to the resurrection of life, and those who have done evil, to the resurrection of condemnation. ‘I can do nothing on my own. As I hear, I judge; and my judgement is just, because I seek to do not my own will but the will of him who sent me.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 08-09/2022
Mossad says Nasrallah doesn't want war, Gantz urges pre-extraction deal
Paris tells Beirut Israel wants no escalation as report says US behind Qana row
Aoun: Lebanon awaiting outcome of Hochstein's contacts with Israelis
Hochstein to relay Israeli remarks to Bou Saab, negotiations 'ongoing'
Gas talks: Lebanon 'won't offer concessions' as US works on new wording
Report: US, France exerting huge pressure on Lebanon over gas deal
Lebanese Intellectuals Express Solidarity with Iranian ‘Women’s Revolution’
U.S. envoy calls claims Israel ceded to Hezbollah on Lebanon gas deal ‘ridiculous’ظYnetnews/Jotam Confino/JTA/Saturday, 8 October, 2022
Israel readies for war with Hezbollah after Lebanon ups maritime deal demandsظLahav Harkov and Anna Ahronheim/Jerusalem Post/October 08/2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 08-09/2022
Not afraid anymore’: Clashes as Iran protests enter fourth week
Iran says Mahsa Amini died of illness rather than 'blows'
Economists Warn Iran’s Decision-Makers of ‘Fighting a Losing Battle’
Canada Says to Deny Entry to 10,000 Members of 'Murderous' Iran Regime
Activist: Veil Protests Present Iran with its 'Berlin Wall' Moment
Iranian Arrested after Attacking Tehran Embassy in Copenhagen
France Advises Nationals Visiting Iran to Leave
Economists Warn Iran’s Decision-Makers of ‘Fighting a Losing Battle’
Dutch Rally to Support Iranian Protests
Moscow: Car Bomb Sparked Fire on Key Crimean Bridge
Jubeir: Saudi Arabia Does Not Politicize Oil
2 Palestinians dead in clashes with IDF during West Bank raid
Türkiye Again Threatens to Wage War on Greece
NKorea Says Missile Tests Self-defense against US Military Threats

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 08-09/2022
The Demonstrations for Mahsa Amini: A Turning Point in Iran/Ziryan Rojhelati/The Washington Institute/October 08/2022
The Latest Chapter in Iran’s Hostage Diplomacy/Henry Rome/The Washington Institute/October 08/2022
Europe must trigger snapback of UN sanctions on Iran/Anthony Ruggiero and Andrea Stricker/The Hill/October 08/2022
Social Media in Iran’s Protests: A New Public Sphere?/Mehdi Khalaji/The Washington Institute/October 08/2022
Thanks to the Biden Administration, Russia and Iran Are Closer than Ever/Majid Rafizadeh/ Gatestone Institute/October 08/2022
Security Council Reforms Under Discussion Again/Dr. Nassif Hitti/Asharq Al-Awsat/October, 08/2022
China: The Immovable Supreme Leader/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/October, 08/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 08-09/2022
Mossad says Nasrallah doesn't want war, Gantz urges pre-extraction deal
Naharnet/Saturday, 8 October, 2022
The head of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, David Barnea, has told Israel’s security cabinet that, according to his evaluation, Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah wants the gas deal with Israel to be finalized and “does not want a military battle with Israel at the moment,” Israel’s Channel 12 has reported. Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz for his part told the cabinet that the agreement should be signed prior to the extraction of gas from the Karish offshore gas field. “The security threat is big and this agreement must be defended because it’s good,” Gantz added, according to the channel.

Paris tells Beirut Israel wants no escalation as report says US behind Qana row
Naharnet/Saturday, 8 October, 2022
The French intervened following the latest Israeli rejection in the gas talks with Lebanon and Paris told Beirut through PM-designate Najib Mikati that "Israel does not intend to escalate," al-Akhbar newspaper quoted prominent sources as saying. The sources added that "the Americans are behind the Israeli stance, especially in the point related to financial compensation, seeing as the U.S. wants to help Lapid's government in the face of the campaign that he is facing prior to the Israeli elections." "The insistence on the word compensation is aimed at giving the impression that Israel has managed to win a Lebanese recognition of its right to the Qana field," the sources said.

Aoun: Lebanon awaiting outcome of Hochstein's contacts with Israelis
Naharnet/Saturday, 8 October, 2022
President Michel Aoun announced Friday that “Lebanon is awaiting the outcome of the contacts that U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein is carrying out with the Israelis, in order to specify the course of the indirect negotiations for the demarcation of the southern maritime border.” Aoun’s remarks come a day after Israel rejected Lebanon’s amendments to Hochstein’s latest proposal. The president voiced his remarks in talks with visiting Arab League Assistant Secretary General Hossam Zaki. Separately, Aoun said that “a country such as Lebanon with its uniqueness and pluralism cannot realize national partnership and respect for the National Pact in the absence of a president.” "The ultimate priority at the moment must be for the election of a new president, because the presence of a president is essential for the formation of a new government and not the opposite," the president added.

Hochstein to relay Israeli remarks to Bou Saab, negotiations 'ongoing'
Naharnet/Saturday, 8 October, 2022
U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein will on Friday deliver written Israeli remarks over his proposal to Lebanon’s deputy parliament speaker Elias Bou Saab, LBCI TV reported. “This confirms that the negotiations between the Lebanese and Israeli sides are still ongoing and have move from the phase of political negotiations to the phase of studying the legal and technical terms in a calm atmosphere away from tensions,” LBCI added.

Gas talks: Lebanon 'won't offer concessions' as US works on new wording
Naharnet/Saturday, 8 October, 2022
While the Israeli "political shelling" against the draft gas agreement with Lebanon has "calmed down," Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab has received from U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein a letter containing Israel's remarks to the draft and Israel's comments on the proposed Lebanese amendments, al-Akhbar daily said on Saturday. "The atmosphere in Beirut does not point to the presence of major obstacles, while the enemy is busy with the repercussions of its stance on the Israeli public," al-Akhbar added. A Lebanese official source meanwhile told the newspaper that Lebanon "has no concessions to offer," as President Michel Aoun reportedly told his visitors that Lebanon is "standing on firm ground and has voiced its stance out of awareness and knowledge." "The response to Hochstein's latest letter will be clear and imminent," Aoun added. The official source meanwhile said that the Americans are working on "different wording for the articles contained in the draft," stressing that "any new attempt to drop Lebanon's amendments will be rejected." The source also noted that Lebanon is clinging to its stance regarding the buoys line on the sea border and its "full right to work in the Qana field and elsewhere without awaiting prior permission from the enemy under the excuse that Israel wants an agreement with the exploration companies."

Report: US, France exerting huge pressure on Lebanon over gas deal
Naharnet/Saturday, 8 October, 2022
The French and the Americans are exerting huge pressure on Lebanon and are seeking a way to convince Beirut to “climb down from the tree,” Israel’s Channel 12 has reported. Israel’s Kan TV meanwhile said that the next two days will be crucial in the attempt to revive the gas deal between Lebanon and Israel, after the Israelis rejected Lebanon’s amendments to the draft deal presented by U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein. The channel also noted that Israel believes that it is still possible to reach an agreement prior to the Israeli legislative elections.

Lebanese Intellectuals Express Solidarity with Iranian ‘Women’s Revolution’
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 8 October, 2022
A group of Lebanese intellectuals issued a statement expressing full “solidarity with the Iranian women’s revolution”, and voicing fears that the regime would resort to extreme violence to silence it. Ninety intellectuals working in the fields of writing, art and media said that Iranian women “with their courage, their assertion of freedom and their rejection of religious tyranny, open a door to great possibilities, not only for Iran, but also for the entire region politically, intellectually and socially.”The statement noted that the Iranian “women’s revolution” is “a huge qualitative leap in the path that began with the Arab Spring revolutions…”“For the first time, there is such a broad public front to reject the long-term oppressors of Iran…,” the statement read, stressing that the movement would encourage populations in Lebanon and other Arab countries to confront the same axis that is controlling the Iranian people…”The Lebanese intellectuals stressed, however, that absolute support for the Iranian revolutionary and feminist movement “does not eliminate our legitimate fears that the regime will take the initiative to drown it in blood as usual, which will lead to militarization, with which democratic and feminist issues will recede in favor of civil, national, ethnic and religious identities.” The statement emphasized the need to draw lessons from the experiences and failures of the “Arab Spring.”“All we can at this moment is to express our utmost pride and support… for the revolutionary women of Iran,” it concluded.

U.S. envoy calls claims Israel ceded to Hezbollah on Lebanon gas deal ‘ridiculous’
Ynetnews/Jotam Confino/JTA/Saturday, 8 October, 2022
Tom Nides says U.S. honest broker in maritime border talks but no way U.S. to ever support something placing Israel at disadvantage; adds Netanyahu supported very similar deal
Taking aim at claims made by Israel’s opposition leaders, including opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu, America’s top diplomatic representative to Israel shot down claims that the U.S.-brokered deal on gas and maritime borders between Israel and Lebanon was a surrender to Hezbollah.“That is ridiculous,” Ambassador Tom Nides told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency in an exclusive interview on Friday.
He also rejected arguments by his predecessor, David Friedman, who tweeted that dividends from the dispute maritime gas fields would go “100% to Lebanon and 0% to Israel.”
“I have enormous respect for David [Friedman] and I’m not in any way criticizing him,” Nides said. “However, it’s wrong. In fact, former Prime Minister Netanyahu also supported a very similar deal a few years ago.”
The gas deal, now facing last-minute hurdles, has topped the news in the region in past weeks. Nides and the U.S. administration see it as a “historic deal” that he said “would be good for Lebanon” and “good for the Israelis in particular.”
The U.S. ambassador still believes that it is possible to overcome differences and reach a deal, despite last-minute changes introduced by Lebanon and mounting criticism by the Israeli opposition.
“I’m quite confident we will get this done. Obviously, in no way will we ever support something that would create a security risk for the state of Israel or put Israel at a disadvantage,” Nides said.
He stressed that America is playing the role of an honest broker and flatly denied suggestions that the deal now proposed is significantly different than discussed in the past, while Netanyahu served as prime minister.
“It’s not true,” Nides said. “The reality is that the basis is basically the same and ultimately the benefits will be similar to what it would have been several years ago.” Nides, 61, who took on his post in Israel last December, has a reputation of being open, and at times direct, even within the diplomatic confines in which he operates. In a wide-ranging interview in Tel Aviv, he took on some of the toughest issues creating friction between Jerusalem and Washington, including religious pluralism in Israel, settlement expansion, growing tensions between Israel and the Palestinian Authority and the upcoming elections in Israel.
Religious freedom and political extremism
Nides, who grew up in Minnesota as a liberal Reform Jew and went to synagogue only during the High Holidays, is a firm believer in equality at the Western Wall in Jerusalem, known in Hebrew as the Kotel.
Recent incidents in which American Jewish families were attacked while celebrating their children's’ bar and bat mitzvahs did not go unnoticed by the U.S. ambassador.
“I have no tolerance for anyone being hurt or attacked for doing what they believe is their religious belief at the Western Wall. Both on the Orthodox and Reform side, and for women and men. I think everyone should use this religious site for their own spirituality,” he said.
Nides has been involved personally on this issue.
“I have had the opportunity to spend many evenings with the rabbi of the wall [Shmuel Rabinovich, an Orthodox rabbi]. I go to the Kotel quite often, and I’m respectful, but I make our position very clear vis a vis the importance of observant and non-observant Jews to share this beautiful place,” he said. “I like the rabbi but I disagree with him and some of the people around him on the conditions that should be set up for the non-religious Jews.”
Religious pluralism, a concern that tops the agenda of many Jewish Americans, does not feature significantly in Israel’s upcoming elections, scheduled for Nov. 1. Much of the debate concentrates on the question of including far-right politicians, including Itamar Ben-Gvir, a former Kahanist known inciting violence against Arabs, in a future coalition, if Netanyahu forms the next government.
Ben-Gvir’s “outrageous views run contrary to Israel’s core principles of a democratic and Jewish state,” Sherman said. “These extremists undermine Israel’s interests and the US-Israel relationship, which I and my colleagues have worked to strengthen.”
Nides, cautiously stressing that he “won’t get involved in the politics of Israel before an election,” stood firm on the right of American politicians to voice their opinions on the issue: “We are free to articulate our anxieties or concerns vis-a-vis making sure that the values that we state are played out here in Israel as well as we believe they should be.”
West Bank violence
The Israeli military has operated against Palestinian militants and terror suspects in the West Bank on an almost daily base since March, when Israel was hit by a terror wave.
More than 100 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank in 2022, making it the most deadly year since 2015
“We are always worried. We worry about the things happening in Nablus and Jenin, and we are obviously concerned about Israel’s security,” Nides said. He articulated a U.S. position that seeks to embolden the Palestinian Authority and acknowledge its role, at a time when President Mahmoud Abbas’ grip on the authority is widely seen as slipping away. We work with the PA every day, to help them provide the security they want. We want the PA to take their own lead with their own people. The PA has no interest in having terrorist cells exist” in the West Bank, Nides said.
While peace negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians seem further away than ever, Nides praised Yair Lapid for “his brave comments on the importance of the two-state solution,” referring to the Israeli prime minister’s recent speech at the United Nations General Assembly.
“We are under no illusions here that I will be standing in the Rose Garden [at the White House] receiving the Nobel Peace Prize for getting the two-state solution, but it’s important that we create the conditions on the ground for a two-state solution,” Nides said. “And that includes helping the Palestinian people.”
On the issue of the expansion of Jewish settlements in the West Bank, Nides reiterated the Biden administration’s policy, saying, “We do not support settlement growth. Period. I work every day behind the scenes, with the Israelis, to try and eliminate, slow down or avoid that.”
He added, “This is a sovereign country. We can’t dictate to them what they can or can’t do, but I can put as much pressure as I can to make sure they understand our position.”
Israel’s neighbors, including Iran
The Trump administration deserves praise for the Abraham Accords, Nides said, explaining that “they created a startup and we want to grow it into a real company.”
Israelis have emphasized their wish to expand the Abraham Accords to include other Arab nations, primarily Saudi Arabia. Nides is cautious.
Ultimately, in sort of a dreamy way, it would be great if the Saudis normalized relations with Israel. It’s obviously the big prize. But this is not just about collecting countries, but about going deeper on security and taking this to a whole new level,” he said. “It’s imperative that we focus on what’s in front of us instead of chasing the next shiny object.”
Nides mentioned Jordan and Egypt as examples of countries that deserve Israel’s focus. After years of deteriorating relations between Israel and Jordan, a full-scale diplomatic effort to restore ties was launched in the last year.
While nurturing and striking new friendships in the region is a goal for Israel, the issue of Iran’s nuclear program remains a top priority. With a breakdown of the nuclear negotiations between world powers and Iran, the threat of escalation between Jerusalem and Tehran looms.
Conditions for returning to the nuclear deal with Iran “haven’t been met,” Nides said. “The ball is in Iran’s court,” he added.
But whether a deal is reached, as the Biden administration hopes, or not, as Israel wishes, Nides said the United States won’t dictate Israel’s behavior toward Iran.
“We will not tie Israel’s hands,” Nides said. “They don’t tell us everything but we have a pretty good security cooperation with them. We are not going to tell them what they can or can’t do. There’s full transparency between the U.S. and Israel.”
*Content distributed by the Jewish Telegraphic Agency news service.

لاهف هاركوف وآنا أهرونهايم / جيروزاليم بوست /إسرائيل تستعد للحرب مع حزب الله بعد أن رفع لبنان سقف مطالب الصفقة البحرية
Israel readies for war with Hezbollah after Lebanon ups maritime deal demands
Lahav Harkov and Anna Ahronheim/Jerusalem Post/October 08/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/112578/112578/
Yair Lapid rejects Lebanese proposal to reverse Israeli security, economic gains from US-mediated agreement
Israel is preparing for a possible confrontation with Hezbollah after rejecting increased demands from Lebanon in maritime border talks on Thursday.
Defense Minister Benny Gantz instructed the defense establishment “to prepare for any scenario in which tensions increase in the northern arena – including defense and offense readiness,” his office said.
The instruction was issued following an assessment of the situation with IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kohavi and other senior military officers and defense officials. Shortly afterwards, the Security Cabinet authorized Prime Minister Yair Lapid, Gantz and Alternate Prime Minister Naftali Bennett to take decisions if there were to be an escalation in the North. Gantz warned that Israel will defend its infrastructure regardless of the outcome of negotiations. “If Hezbollah tries to harm [Israeli infrastructure or sovereignty], the military cost to Lebanon and Hezbollah will be very high,” he said at a memorial ceremony for the fallen of the Yom Kippur War of 1973.
PM Yair Lapid rejects Lebanese counter-proposal
Lapid rejected changes proposed by Lebanon to a maritime border agreement drafted by the US, a senior diplomatic source said on Thursday. The prime minister emphasized to US Energy Envoy Amos Hocstein that Israel would not make any more concessions.
Hochstein’s draft, presented to Israel and Lebanon last week, was meant to be close to the final version of an agreement settling the dispute over the countries’ economic waters. Lebanon submitted its comments on the draft on Tuesday.
Lapid assessed some of the demands to be new and significant, and instructed the negotiating team to reject them. “Prime Minister Lapid made clear that he will not compromise on Israel’s security and economic interests even if it means there will not be an agreement soon,” the source said.
The source said that one of the Lebanese demands that Lapid rejected was that Total Energy, the French petroleum giant that holds the license to develop the Kana gas field, buy out the portion of the reservoir in Israeli waters, whereas the proposal that Israel agreed to accept stated that Total would pay royalties to Israel for the gas extracted from its waters. Lebanon refuses to accept 'buoy line'
Exploration has not yet begun in Kana and the amount of gas in the reservoir is unknown so an immediate buyout could fall short of the actual value of the gas in Israeli waters.
Another element that Lapid rejected was Lebanon’s refusal to accept the “buoy line” as a border. The line in question is an obstacle extending 5 km. into the sea from Rosh Hanikra, along the border with Lebanon. The government has argued the line was vulnerable because Israel had established it unilaterally as a zone necessary for it to have freedom of action for its security, and the agreement with Lebanon would enshrine that line in international law.
The “buoy line” is what Lapid’s government has presented as the primary achievement of the negotiations over Israeli security. However, in the ensuing days, Lebanon asked to change the language describing the “buoy line” to avoid accepting it as an international border.
Even as Israel rejects those demands, it “will extract gas from the Karish rig at the moment that it will be possible,” the source stated.
The Security Cabinet, which discussed the latest developments in the talks with Lebanon concurred that progress at Karish should continue as planned. Karish, an Israeli gas field, is adjacent to Kana, a reservoir that spans Lebanese and Israeli waters, as well as the area in dispute. Energean, which holds the Israeli license for Karish, set up a rig about 70 km off Haifa in June and has worked towards extracting gas, while Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah threatened to attack if Karish becomes operational.
“If Hezbollah or someone else tries to harm Karish or threaten us, the negotiations on the maritime line will stop immediately and [Hezbollah leader] Hassan Nasrallah will have to explain to the citizens of Lebanon why they don’t have a gas rig and an economic future,” the source added.
The White House said a deal is still possible, despite the disagreements.
“Special Presidential Coordinator Amos Hochstein continues his robust engagement to bring the maritime boundary discussions to a close. We remain in close communication with the Israelis and Lebanese,” a White House National Security Council spokesperson said. “We are at a critical stage in the negotiations and the gaps have narrowed. We remain committed to reaching a resolution and believe a lasting compromise is possible.”
Gantz spoke in favor of a deal earlier Thursday, saying that it harms Iran’s interests.
“We constantly remember the lesson of the Yom Kippur War,” Gantz said. “We must not sin by being arrogant, we must be ready for every scenario… In this context, our biggest immediate operative challenge is on our northern border. These days, the government is promoting an agreement to divide economic waters between us and Lebanon, which has economic and security impact, including harm to Iran and Lebanon’s interests in the region.”
Opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu, however, continued to say that Lapid had surrendered to Nasrallah, and claimed credit for the prime minister’s rejection of the latest demands.
“Only the heavy pressure that my friends and I put on [Lapid] led him to back off from his surrender agreement, for now,” Netanyahu said. “Israel needs different leadership… We will not let Israel surrender to Nasrallah.”
The opposition leader also repeated his refrain that the agreement would not be legal until it is authorized by the Knesset, and therefore he will not be bound by it if he returns to the Prime Minister’s Office.
However, Israeli law only requires that international agreements be submitted to the Knesset for review, not approval, though historically, agreements involving territorial matters have been brought to the legislature for a vote.
At the Security Cabinet meeting, Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked also called for the Knesset to vote on the agreement.
Hochstein’s draft would have had Israel concede the entire triangle of economic waters that had been in dispute with Lebanon between 2012-2021, up to what is known as line 23, but not the extended triangle that Lebanon demanded in early 2021, known as line 29. It would, however, allow Lebanon to develop the entire Kana Field that extends beyond line 23.
The deal would include international recognition of the “buoys line.” In addition, Israel would receive royalties according to the percentage of the Kana reservoir that lies in its waters, in accordance with a separate deal being negotiated with a gas consortium led by French energy company Total, which has the Lebanese license to extract gas from the field. The deal would allow Total to start work in the gas field as soon as the deal is signed.
Beirut also said it would not accept tying its ability to develop Kana to the agreement with Israel, among other demands, according to Hezbollah news outlet Al-Akhbar.
Netanyahu made his remarks hours after his release from Shaarei Tzedek Hospital in Jerusalem. He went to the hospital the night before after feeling unwell at the end of the Yom Kippur fast; all his tests were found to be normal and he felt better in the morning, his spokesman said.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 08-09/2022
Not afraid anymore’: Clashes as Iran protests enter fourth week
AFP/October 08, 2022
PARIS: Schoolgirls chanted slogans, workers went on strike and street clashes erupted in Iran on Saturday, as protests over the death of Mahsa Amini entered a fourth week in defiance of a bloody crackdown. Anger flared over the death of the 22-year-old Iranian Kurd on September 16, three days after she was arrested in Tehran by the notorious morality police for an alleged breach of the Islamic republic’s strict dress code for women. “Woman, life, freedom,” girls were heard chanting at a school in Amini’s hometown Saqez, in Kurdistan province, where another group of girls were seen swinging headscarves above their heads on a street, in videos the Hengaw rights group said were recorded on Saturday. In another video it shared, a group of girls could be heard chanting the same phrase — the catchcry of the protests — as they entered a school in Sanandaj, the capital of Kurdistan province. The protests followed calls for people to take to the streets again overnight. “We are not afraid anymore. We will fight,” said a large banner placed on an overpass of the Modares highway that cuts through central Tehran, according to online images verified by AFP. In another widely shared video, a man is seen altering the wording of a large government billboard from “The police are the servants of the people” to “The police are the murderers of the people.” Hengaw, a Kurdish rights group based in Norway, said “widespread strikes” were taking place in Saqez, Sanandaj and Divandarreh, in Kurdistan province, as well as Mahabad in West Azerbaijan province. Shots could be heard as protesters clashed with security forces on a street in Sanandaj, in a video shared by the 1500tasvir social media channel that monitors violations in the Islamic republic. The same source said there were protests in the southern city of Shiraz.
It also shared videos of demonstrators in Karaj, a city west of Tehran, and the southern city of Kerman, where drivers honked their car horns as dozens of people gathered on the roadside. AFP was unable to immediately verify the footage from 1500tasvir. Oslo-based group Iran Human Rights says at least 92 protesters have been killed by the security forces. The crackdown has fueled tensions between Iran and the West, especially its arch enemy the United States. Ultra-conservative President Ebrahim Raisi, who took part in a ceremony on Saturday at a Tehran university marking the start of the academic year, has blamed the unrest on outside forces. “Despite all the efforts of ill-wishers, the strong and hardworking people of Islamic Iran will overcome the problems ahead with unity and cohesion,” he was quoted as saying on the presidency’s website.

Iran says Mahsa Amini died of illness rather than 'blows'
Agence France Presse/Saturday, 8 October, 2022
Iran has said an investigation into the death in custody of Mahsa Amini found she lost her life to illness rather than reported beatings that sparked three weeks of bloody protests. Amini, 22, died on September 16, three days after falling into a coma following her arrest in Tehran by the morality police for allegedly breaching the Islamic republic's strict dress code for women. Anger over her death has triggered the biggest wave of protests to rock Iran in almost three years and a crackdown that has killed dozens of protesters and seen scores arrested. Despite security personnel using lethal force, the women-led protests have continued for 21 consecutive nights, according to online videos verified by AFP. Iran's Forensic Organization said Friday that "Mahsa Amini's death was not caused by blows to the head and vital organs and limbs of the body." The death of Amini, whose Kurdish first name is Jhina, was related to "surgery for a brain tumor at the age of eight," it said in a statement. Amini's bereaved parents have filed a complaint against the officers involved, and one of her cousins living in Iraq has told AFP she died of "a violent blow to the head."Other young women and girls have been killed at the protests, but rights group Amnesty International says Iran has been forcing televised confessions out of their families to "absolve themselves of responsibility for their deaths."
'Suicide' -
The mother of 16-year-old Nika Shahkarami, who died after going missing on September 20, insisted on Thursday she was killed by the state after joining an anti-hijab protest in Tehran. Nasrin Shahkarami also accused the authorities of threatening her to make a forced confession over her daughter's death. "I saw my daughter's body myself... The back of her head showed she had suffered a very severe blow as her skull had caved in. That's how she was killed," she said in a video posted online by Radio Farda, a US-funded Persian station based in Prague. Iran's judiciary has since denied reports the security forces killed another teenage girl, Sarina Esmailzadeh, at a rally in Karaj, west of Tehran last month. Its website quoted a prosecutor as saying an investigation showed Esmailzadeh, also 16, had "committed suicide" by jumping from a building. Oslo-based group Iran Human Rights said the Esmailzadeh family had come under heavy pressure from government agents to "force them to repeat the suicide state narrative."
It said that when the family was asked to identify the teenager's body, "multiple injuries were clearly visible on her face and the right side of her forehead was completely crushed due to the severity of the blows." In a widening crackdown, Iran has blocked access to social media, including Instagram and WhatsApp, and launched a campaign of mass arrests. Protesters have sought ways to avoid detection, with schoolgirls hiding or blurring their faces while shouting "Death to the dictator" and defacing images of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in verified videos. Other footage has shown people chanting the protest catchcry "Woman, Life, Freedom!" from their apartment windows under the cover of night. Another form of protest emerged on Friday morning, with fountains in Tehran appearing to pour blood after an artist turned their waters red to reflect the deadly crackdown. The BBC's Persian service said the water was later drained, although traces of red could still be seen on the fountains in images it published on Instagram.
Canada sanctions Iran Guards
The street violence that ensued across Iran, dubbed "riots" by the authorities, has led to dozens of deaths, prompting Western governments to step up sanctions against the Iranian state and its security apparatus. The French foreign ministry on Friday advised its nationals visiting Iran to "leave the country as soon as possible", citing the risk of arbitrary detention. Canada announced Friday that it will deny entry to more than 10,000 officers and other senior members of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, accusing them of "heinous" acts against the Iranian people. "This is the strongest measure we have to go after states and state entities," Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said, adding it was previously applied only against regimes for war crimes or genocide. A joint letter signed by 21 mainly Iranian human rights groups called on U.S. President Joe Biden to do more to "discourage further state violence, and address the long history of atrocities and impunity in that country."Solidarity demonstrations continued around the world, with rallies in Amsterdam and Berlin on Friday. In Copenhagen, an Iranian armed with a knife managed to penetrate the embassy grounds in what Iran said was an attack targeting its female ambassador. The Danish ambassador was summoned to the foreign ministry in Tehran to hear a formal protest against the security breach, state media said.

Economists Warn Iran’s Decision-Makers of ‘Fighting a Losing Battle’
London - Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 8 October, 2022
Economists are warning decision-makers in Iran against “fighting a losing battle” and demanding acknowledgment of the people’s right to protest. Five top economists in Iran, including Masoud Nili, who was an economic advisor to former President Hassan Rouhani, warned of the worsening situation in the country. In a statement published by the weekly business magazine, Tejarat-e-Farda, the five economists said that overcoming current problems is dependent on authorities accepting “the cultural and social realities of Iranians.”They said that “decision-makers could succeed in suppressing angry protests and mistakenly believe that the issue is over, but it would prove impossible to manage a country where muffled anger ails large segments of society.” The five economists urged policymakers to avoid “going too deep into fighting a losing battle” and demanded they recognize the people’s right to criticize and protest. Mahsa Amini, 22, died on September 16, three days after falling into a coma following her arrest in Tehran by the morality police for allegedly breaching the strict dress code for women. Anger over her death has triggered the biggest wave of protests to rock Iran in almost three years and a crackdown that has killed dozens of protesters and seen scores arrested. Despite security personnel using lethal force, the women-led protests have continued for 21 consecutive nights, according to online videos verified by AFP. Video footage has shown people chanting the protest catch phrase “Woman, Life, Freedom!” from their apartment windows under the cover of night. In some of the video recordings, a group of young schoolgirls can be heard chanting “Death to the dictator” in the northern city of Rasht. Security forces arrested prominent supporters of the protests, including activists, journalists, pop stars, and athletes. As part of the crackdown on the protests, Iran has blocked access to social media sites such as Instagram and WhatsApp.

Canada Says to Deny Entry to 10,000 Members of 'Murderous' Iran Regime
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 8 October, 2022
Canada announced Friday it will permanently deny entry to more than 10,000 members of Iran's "murderous" regime, including the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps that Ottawa blames for "heinous" acts against the Iranian people. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he would list Iran under "the most powerful provision" of Canada's immigration and refugee act to make "over 10,000 (IRGC) officers and senior members most responsible for this heinous state behavior inadmissible to Canada." "This is the strongest measure we have to go after states and state entities," he said, noting it was previously applied only against regimes for war crimes or genocide. Those listed "will be inadmissible to Canada forever" and will be prevented from holding assets or having any financial dealings in this country, he said. Thousands of Canadians have marched in the streets in recent weeks in solidarity with protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini while in the custody of Iran's notorious morality police. At least 92 people have been killed in Iran since September 16, according to the Oslo-based NGO Iran Human Rights, while an official report puts the number at around 60 dead, including 12 members of the security forces.
Ottawa has already applied sanctions over Iran's nuclear program, and Trudeau announced a new round last week against dozens of Iranian officials, including its morality police. Canada also has pressed Tehran to compensate the families of victims of flight PS752 shot down in January 2020, leaving 176 dead, including 85 Canadian citizens and permanent residents. "The Iranian regime is a state sponsor of terrorism. It is repressive, theocratic and misogynist," Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland told the news conference. "We are formally recognizing that fact and acting accordingly," she said. Trudeau and Freeland also said Ottawa would "massively expand targeted (economic) sanctions" against individuals and entities in Iran, and move to prevent any money laundering by them in this country. Any of those listed with existing ties to Canada would see their visas or permanent residency status canceled, they added.

Activist: Veil Protests Present Iran with its 'Berlin Wall' Moment
New York - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 8 October, 2022
Iran may use the veil as a tool of oppression, but the hijab is also the weakest pillar of an embattled regime trying to forestall its own "Berlin Wall" moment, an Iranian-American activist based in New York tells AFP. Masih Alinejad, 45, who fled Iran in 2009, became known in 2014 after she launched a social media campaign called mystealthyfreedom.org that encourages Iranian women to protest against the obligation to wear the hijab in their country. In her opinion, Iranian women rejecting the mandatory hijab will have a similar effect as the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, which marked the beginning of the end of the Soviet Union. The journalist and activist now has 500,000 followers on Twitter and eight million followers on Instagram, where she posts dozens of photos or videos every day of Iranian women removing their hijab or images of the violent repression in her homeland. She has become a voice in exile for the protests that have rocked Iran since their initial spark: the death on September 16 of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini at the hands of morality police in Tehran. Alinejad's public standing increased markedly in mid-2021, when US prosecutors indicted four "Iranian intelligence agents" for plotting in 2018 to kidnap her and whisk her back to Iran, where one of her brothers was also imprisoned. "To me, the compulsory hijab is like the Berlin Wall. If we tear this wall down, the Islamic Republic won't exist," Alinejad told AFP, a flower peeking out from her curly and voluminous hair. The comparison with the toppling of the Berlin Wall is dear to her and clearly needles Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who in a speech this week said "US political elements" making the analogy do not feel sorry "for the death of a young girl," but instead have broader political aims. "That actually shows you that compulsory hijab is the weakest pillar of the Islamic Republic. That is why the regime is really scared of this revolution," Alinejad said. She argued that if Iranian women succeed in saying no "to those who are telling them what to wear, these women will be more powerful to say no to (a) dictator." The crackdown on the demonstrations caused the death of dozens of people, human rights organizations say. The hijab "is a tool to oppress us... to control women" and "to control the whole society through women," Alinejad said. Iran's TikTok generation is protesting the use of women's bodies as "a political platform for our government, for the Islamic regime to write its own ideology."Far from her country of birth, Alinejad has found employment as host of a program on the Persian service of Voice of America, the US government-funded outlet. She's also faced criticism on social media for taking a hard line opposing any negotiation with Tehran on nuclear issues. Some see her as serving US interests and feeding Islamophobia. She offers a tart response that brings tears to her eyes: "I invite them all to go to Afghanistan, to go to Iran."Alinejad says fear has been a constant presence both inside Iran and abroad. Exiled life in the United States holds its own dangers. "I'm not safe here in America," she said, recalling the 2018 kidnapping attempt against her. More recently, in late July, a man was arrested after loitering around her home in Brooklyn. The FBI found a Kalashnikov in his car. Since then, the activist has had to move.

Iranian Arrested after Attacking Tehran Embassy in Copenhagen
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 8 October, 2022
An Iranian armed with a knife who tried to enter Iran's embassy in Copenhagen was arrested on Friday, Danish police said, as Tehran's mission criticized officers' slow response, claiming targeted the ambassador. “He entered the embassy, ​​spread terror (…) and damaged the cars in the parking lot,” Iran’s ambassador Asfaneh Nadipour said in a statement, AFP reported. "A 32-year-old Iranian citizen was arrested Friday morning after having breached the grounds of the Iranian embassy in Copenhagen carrying a knife," Copenhagen police affirmed in a statement on Friday. The Iranian foreign ministry "strongly criticised" the Danish police response. "It is regrettable that in the heart of Europe, such an attack can be perpetrated against a woman and ambassador who enjoys diplomatic immunity, and that the police are not at the scene in time," it said in a statement. The suspect will on Saturday be brought before a judge, who will decide if he should remain in pre-trial detention. The police said the Iranian man is accused of vandalism, violence and an offence against a person protected by diplomatic status. Iran has faced three weeks of protests since 22-year-old Mahsa Amini died in custody following her arrest in Tehran by the morality police. There have been rallies worldwide in solidarity with Amini.

France Advises Nationals Visiting Iran to Leave
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 8 October, 2022
The French government on Friday advised its nationals visiting Iran to "leave the country as soon as possible", citing the risk of arbitrary detention. "All French visitors, including dual nationals, are exposed to a high risk of arrest, arbitrary detention and unfair trial," the foreign ministry said on its website, adding "this risk also concerns people making a simple tourist visit". The foreign ministry went on to warn that "in the event of arrest or detention, respect for fundamental rights and the safety of individuals are not guaranteed" in Iran, AFP reported. The move came the day after Iranian state television broadcast what it said were "confessions" by two French nationals, five months after they were arrested. French teachers' union official Cecile Kohler and her partner Jacques Paris have been detained in Iran since May 7 and stand accused of seeking to stir labor unrest during teachers' strikes earlier this year. Iran had announced on May 11 the arrest of two Europeans "who entered the country with the aim of triggering chaos and destabilizing society". The release of the alleged confessions comes as Iran grapples with a new wave of women-led protests that erupted on September 16 following the death in custody of Mahsa Amini. The 22-year-old Iranian Kurd died after being detained for allegedly breaching the country's strict rules on how women should dress. Rights groups accuse Tehran of practising a kind of hostage diplomacy with the detainees, using them as a negotiating tool with the outside world.
"The capacity of the French embassy in Tehran to provide consular protection to nationals arrested or detained in Iran is very limited," the French foreign ministry website warned.

Economists Warn Iran’s Decision-Makers of ‘Fighting a Losing Battle’
London - Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 8 October, 2022
Economists are warning decision-makers in Iran against “fighting a losing battle” and demanding acknowledgment of the people’s right to protest. Five top economists in Iran, including Masoud Nili, who was an economic advisor to former President Hassan Rouhani, warned of the worsening situation in the country. In a statement published by the weekly business magazine, Tejarat-e-Farda, the five economists said that overcoming current problems is dependent on authorities accepting “the cultural and social realities of Iranians.”They said that “decision-makers could succeed in suppressing angry protests and mistakenly believe that the issue is over, but it would prove impossible to manage a country where muffled anger ails large segments of society.” The five economists urged policymakers to avoid “going too deep into fighting a losing battle” and demanded they recognize the people’s right to criticize and protest. Mahsa Amini, 22, died on September 16, three days after falling into a coma following her arrest in Tehran by the morality police for allegedly breaching the strict dress code for women. Anger over her death has triggered the biggest wave of protests to rock Iran in almost three years and a crackdown that has killed dozens of protesters and seen scores arrested. Despite security personnel using lethal force, the women-led protests have continued for 21 consecutive nights, according to online videos verified by AFP. Video footage has shown people chanting the protest catch phrase “Woman, Life, Freedom!” from their apartment windows under the cover of night. In some of the video recordings, a group of young schoolgirls can be heard chanting “Death to the dictator” in the northern city of Rasht. Security forces arrested prominent supporters of the protests, including activists, journalists, pop stars, and athletes. As part of the crackdown on the protests, Iran has blocked access to social media sites such as Instagram and WhatsApp.

Dutch Rally to Support Iranian Protests
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 8 October, 2022
Thousands of people held a demonstration Saturday in The Hague in support of protesters in Iran who have taken to the streets since the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini following her arrest by the morality police. Protesters - gathered on a central park in the city - waved flags and banners emblazoned with texts including “No to enforced headscarf in Iran,” “Justice can’t wait” and “Stop bloodshed in Iran.”Several lawmakers from parties across the Dutch political spectrum also attended. Saturday’s demonstration follows anti-government protests across Iran that were sparked by Amini's death. The Iranian protests have triggered demonstrations of support across Europe, including by women cutting off locks of their hair, following Iranian women's example. Oscar-winning French actors Marion Cotillard and Juliette Binoche, as well as other French screen and music stars, filmed themselves chopping off locks of their hair in a video posted Wednesday. Dutch Justice Minister Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius also cut off a lock of her hair during a live television talk show this week. Anti-government demonstrations erupted Saturday in several locations across Iran. Marchers chanted anti-government slogans and twirled headscarves. In some areas, merchants shuttered shops in response to a call by activists for a commercial strike or to protect their wares from damage.

Moscow: Car Bomb Sparked Fire on Key Crimean Bridge
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 8 October, 2022
A fire sparked by a car bomb has broken out on a key road and rail bridge linking the Crimean Peninsula to Russia, which annexed the territory from Ukraine in 2014, Moscow authorities said Saturday. "Today at 6:07 am (0307 GMT) on the road traffic side of the Crimean bridge ... a car bomb exploded, setting fire to seven oil tankers being carried by rail to Crimea," Russian news agencies cited the national anti-terrorism committee as saying. The bridge, which was built on the orders of Russian President Vladimir Putin and inaugurated in 2018, was a key transport link for carrying military equipment to Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine, especially in the south, as well as ferrying troops there. Russia had maintained the bridge was safe despite the fighting in Ukraine but had threatened Kyiv with reprisals if it was attacked. In September, Russia announced the annexation of the provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia after staging referendums that Kyiv and the West say were phony exercises held at gunpoint. A Ukrainian presidential advisor posted a message on Twitter after Saturday's explosion and fire on the Crimean bridge, calling it "the beginning" but not directly claiming Ukrainian responsibility. "Everything illegal must be destroyed, everything stolen must be returned to Ukraine, everything occupied by Russia must be expelled," Mykhailo Podolyak wrote.

Jubeir: Saudi Arabia Does Not Politicize Oil
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 8 October, 2022
Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir has said Saudi Arabia does not politicize oil and the shortage is not related to the fundamentals of crude oil supply and demand. "Oil is not a weapon," al-Jubeir told Fox News. "It's not a fighter plane. It's not a tank. You can't shoot it. You can't do anything with it. We look at oil as a commodity and we look at oil as important to the global economy in which we have a huge stake.” “The idea that Saudi Arabia would do this to harm the US or to be in any way politically involved is absolutely not correct at all,” he added. The 13 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and 11 of its allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, agreed on Wednesday to lower their production by two million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia said the reduction was necessary to respond to the West's interest rate hike and the weak global economy. "With due respect, the reason you have high prices in the United States is because you have a refining shortage that has been in existence for more than 20 years," Jubeir told Fox News. "You haven't built refineries in decades." Al-Jubeir ultimately asserted the Kingdom is "committed to ensuring stability in the oil markets to the benefit of consumers and producers."

2 Palestinians dead in clashes with IDF during West Bank raid
Einav Halabi,Yoav Zitun/Ynetnews/Saturday, 8 October, 2022
At least 11 more reported wounded by Palestinian heal officials; Forces enter Jenin refugee to arrest terror suspect; encounter fire from camp militants and respond. one of the dead is a 16-year old shot after hurling firebomb at troops
At least two Palestinians were killed and 11 others wounded, three seriously, on Saturday, in clashes with Israeli security forces in the Jenin refugee camp. The troops entered the camp to arrest an operative of the Islamic Jihad terror group. They surrounded his home where he was barricading when they encountered gunfire and firebombs from dozens of camp residents and militants. In a statement, security officials said Salah Samir abu Zeina, the terror suspect who was taken into custody, had been convicted on terrorist charges twice and was released from prison in 2020. He was suspected of planning and carrying out shooting attacks against IDF forces deployed to the Jenin area. Palestinian health officials said that one of the dead in the clashes, was 16-year old Mahmoud a-Sous who was shot after hurling a firebomb at the soldiers. The incident came on day after two other Palestinians were killed in clashes near the West Bank city of Qalqilya, including a 14-year old. The IDF said the boy had thrown a firebomb at the troops who fired shots in response. Clashes broke out near the village of Kafr Qaddum when dozens of Palestinians blocked roads and hurled stones at troops who responded with riot dispersal measures and with live fire. One of the rioters was injured and taken to a local hospital. No injuries to the troops, were reported.

Türkiye Again Threatens to Wage War on Greece
Ankara - Saeed Abdulrazek/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 8 October, 2022
Türkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan affirmed that his country doesn’t want a war with Greece but it is using the language its neighbor understands. Ties between Türkiye and Greece have been strained for years over territorial conflicts in the east Mediterranean, but tensions have escalated in recent months over what Türkiye says is a Greek military buildup on Aegean islands close to the Turkish coast. The Turkish president last month fueled tensions between the two by saying that “we might come suddenly one night.”“You’ve understood it right, they should have taken the message as well,” Erdogan said in Prague when asked by a journalist if he meant an attack against Greece. He stressed that Ankara does not want tensions with any of its neighbors and is fighting to protect its borders and interests. “We don’t want tension with any party, but instead a solution within the legal framework,” Erdogan stated.
He said unarmed aerial vehicles and combat drones are in Northern Cyprus to protect it from all sides. Erdogan was speaking to reporters on his way back from the first European Political Community Summit in Prague on Thursday. Asked whether there is a plan to set up a Turkish military base in the northeastern Karpas peninsula in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, Erdogan said Turkish drones may also be sent to the region. “Because we need to secure Northern Cyprus from all sides, from all aspects. Whether it (the base) is (set up) or not, our jets will immediately be in Northern Cyprus as soon as they take off from our mainland,” he added. Ankara threatened to boost defenses of the Turkish Cypriots in the north of the island, two weeks after Washington lifted a decades-old arms embargo on the internationally-recognized Greek Cypriot government located in the south of the island. “The United States, which overlooks and even encourages the steps by the Cypriot-Greek duo that threaten peace and stability in the eastern Mediterranean, will lead to an armament race on the island with this step,” Erdogan said. He affirmed that Türkiye already has 40,000 troops on the island, and it will reinforce them with land, naval and aerial weapons, ammunition and vehicles. “Everyone must know that this last step will not go unresponded and that every precaution will be taken for the security of the Turkish Cypriots,” Erdogan warned. He said that Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades insisted on meeting with him on the sidelines of the summit in Prague. “Anastasiades insisted on a bilateral meeting...I responded by reminding him that his term ends in two months. In a situation like this, such an issue is not to be discussed,” Erdogan noted.

NKorea Says Missile Tests Self-defense against US Military Threats
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 8 October, 2022
North Korea said on Saturday its missile tests are for self-defense against direct US military threats and they have not harmed the safety of neighboring countries and regions. North Korea carried out six missile launches in 12 days as of this week, including launching an intermediate-range missile over Japan on Tuesday. "Our missile tests are a normal, planned self-defense measure to protect our country's security and regional peace from direct US military threats," said state media KCNA, citing an aviation administration spokesperson. The missile tests "did not pose any threat or harm to the safety of civil aviation as well as the safety of neighboring countries and regions, by a full consideration of civil aviation safety in advance,” Reuters quoted the spokesperson as saying. The message was in response to the International Civil Aviation Organization Council condemning North Korea's missile launches for posing a serious safety risk to international civil aviation, KCNA said. North Korea's defense ministry was "taking a stern look at the development of the current situation, which is very worrisome," regarding US-South Korean drills involving the nuclear-powered US aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, KCNA said in a separate statement. The United States and South Korea held joint maritime exercises on Friday, a day after Seoul scrambled fighter jets in reaction to an apparent North Korean bombing drill. The United States also announced new sanctions on Friday in response to North Korea's latest missile launches.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 08-09/2022
The Demonstrations for Mahsa Amini: A Turning Point in Iran
Ziryan Rojhelati/The Washington Institute/October 08/2022
Despite the Iranian regime’s efforts to suppress recent protests, they have quickly spread to every corner of the country, making this one of the most important events in Iran in more than four decades and suggesting this could be a turning point for the country's future.
The massive wave of protests that erupted after the tragic death of an Iranian-Kurdish woman, Mahsa “Jina” Amini, while in the custody of Iran’s morality police quickly grabbed the world’s attention. Having been arrested for allegedly violating Iran’s hijab mandate, Amini’s death importantly highlighted Iran’s intense domestic issues and public protests at a time when the world was more focused on the issue of Tehran's nuclear program and regional policies.
After the Sunni-dominated Arab Spring of 2011, these protests could signal a new, Iranian wave of the “Shia Spring” that has engulfed Iraq and Lebanon over the past few years. At the same time, the protests represent a continuation in the series of domestic protests in Iran that have emerged over the past two decades, but have notably increased over the past five years.
Since changes in Iran’s domestic politics can directly impact the politics of many other places around the region, particularly in Iraq, the critical question in everyone’s mind is: where are the protests heading?
A Turning Point?
Iran's current protests come more than a decade after the Arab Spring tore through the Islamic world, sparking regime change in some countries but complex, long-running civil wars in others. Since 2018, however, a different wave of public protests has engulfed Lebanon, Iraq, and now Iran—protests that may very well indicate the collapse of the Shia ruling elite in the region, just as the Arab Spring largely represented a mass movement against the Sunni ruling elite.
In Lebanon, protests and public demonstrations have severely weakened the position of Hezbollah and its allies in the country's last election. In Iraq, protests have been ongoing since 2019, with recent flare-ups in Iraq’s Green Zone after the “withdrawal” of Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr from politics.
In Iran, the presence of forces such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has, until now, made similar large-scale protests hard to achieve. Indeed, the regime has clung to power despite growing anti-regime sentiment and demonstrations in the last few years. Nevertheless, the current wave of protests has actually prompted a change in rhetoric on the part of Iran's conservative leaders, including President Ebrahim Raisi who talked about the necessity of changing the way of working and giving people more opportunities for the right to protest and criticize. Raisi stated: “What is wrong with setting up centers in universities, scientific institutes and circles for dialogue, criticism, and even protest against a decision?” The president of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammed Baqir Qalibaf, has likewise promised to investigate Jina’s death and to conduct certain reforms on laws pertaining to the hijab. Such rhetoric may be a catalyst for calming disgruntled people, but it could also be a response pressured by protestors.
On the other hand, the current wave of protests in Iran represents a marked difference in both the size and makeup of the internal resistance, indicating these demonstrations may yield different results. Most notably, the protests deviate from three general categories that have otherwise defined Iranian protests in the past two decades: middle-class, issue-specific, and geographically-isolated.
The first type of demonstrations of the past two decades could be counted as middle-class protests, where demands focused on more democracy and freedom within the Iranian system. One instance was the student demonstration in July 1999 against the closure of the Salam newspaper, which was close to reformists and included prominent locations such as Tehran, Tabriz, and Isfahan. The 2009 green movement was similarly middle-class, opposing the reported results of the Republic's presidential election and expanding over about a year in more than 39 cities and provinces in Iran. These protests continued to a limited extent the following year and the main motivation was that voters believed their votes had not been counted or had been stolen before the announcement of the election results.
The second attribute of demonstrations in Iran, which have intensified since 2018, is the focus on a specific issue. These protests typically arose in specific geographic contexts—the third qualifier of past Iranian protests—and focused on a definitive, typically economic concern. Due to the focus of these protests, members of the working class were seen as representative in these movements. This category includes the 2017-2018 protests against living expenses that emerged at the time of Hassan Rohani's cabinet, appearing to have been encouraged by the conservative faction of Iranian politics. Also included in this category are the protests against the increased fuel prices in 2019, known as “Bloody November” and recognized as one of the most severe demonstrations in Iran. In addition, protests against water shortages took place in Khuzestan and later in Isfahan in 2021, along with protests against high bread prices in 2022.
Relative to these previous protest models, the latest wave of Iranian protests after Mahsa Amini's murder on September 17, 2022 have some unique features. The protests represent a geographically, ethnically, and economically diverse cross-section of Iranian society. Women— estimated to number more than 40 million in Iran—along with Iran’s youth population are at the forefront of the protests, which support a vast network of popular groups and political clusters inside and outside Iran. These protests also represent a turning point due to the political, economic, and social nature of the protestors’ slogans, including “Woman, Life, Freedom,” “We Don’t Want the Islamic Republic,” ”I Will Kill, I Will Kill, Those Who Killed My Sister,” “Death to the Dictator, Be it Shah or Ayatollah,” “We are all Mahsa, We Are All in This Fight Together.”
Protesters are also coming from Iran’s upper class, indicating the ability of this protest movement to unite Iran’s different social and political groups around a single goal. Moreover, the international community has responded to these latest protests in a new way relative to muted responses in the past. Now, they are making statements in solidarity with Iran’s protesters despite Tehran blaming the demonstrations on the existence of an "outside hand" or a vast network of outside cooperation.
Over the past several days, the regime has targeted the headquarters of Kurdish opposition parties residing in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and even some civilian targets—including schools—with drones and missiles. This has resulted in the death of several civilians. Still, the significant political, economic, and social frustrations behind the current protest movement have kept it going.
Understanding Internal Dissatisfaction in Iran
To understand what’s happening in Iran, it's important to note the major generational gap that exists between Iranians today and those during the early days of the Iranian revolution. Today, about 85% of Iran's population is under 55. Of those, 41.2% are between the ages of 15 and 39. Even 55-year-olds were just twelve when the Islamic government came to power in 1979. As such, the imposition of a specific way of life according to religious views on the entire country does not match with the lifestyle and beliefs of this new generation.
There is a wide gap between the desires of the new generation and the criteria that the regime has established for the Islamic Government, the Islamic Community, and the Islamic World. While the Islamic Republic has exerted concerted efforts to impose their expectations both domestically and abroad for over forty years, they have failed in everyday life to instill their ideology into Iran’s youth. On top of the cultural gap, there are ongoing hardships and economic problems that weigh on the shoulders of the Iranian people. According to some reports, almost one of every five Iranians live in poverty.
Within the regime itself, it has been more than two decades since political conflict emerged among the Iranian ruling elite, including between the reformists and conservatives. Recently, however, the differences between Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and three of Iran’s previous presidents—Mohammad Khatami, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and Hassan Rouhani—are no secret. Internal division seems to be growing.
Moreover, the Iranian supreme leader is 83 years old, and news of him being seriously ill has been reported in the media several times. According to Mir Hossein Musauvi, one of Iran's Green Movement leaders, the supreme leader may be replaced by his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, after his death. Undoubtedly, the news of further disease or even the death of Iran's supreme leader—and the subsequent issue of succession—will have a major impact in raising protestors’ morale and energy to continue.
In total, the economic crisis, public protests, and internal conflicts within the Iranian ruling class are scenes reminiscent of the end of the Soviet Union. Of course, it is not yet a given that this new wave of protest, though different, will immediately alter the political system through revolution or radical change. Tehran still has security and military forces such as the Pasdaran Army and other proxy militia forces available to suppress civilian protesters. Nevertheless, it is clear that a change has begun. And with the government repeatedly shutting down demonstrations over the years, Iranians have become resilient in protesting repeatedly and vehemently.
Indeed, previous experience has shown that even if a massive suppression of protesters takes place—reminiscent of Bloody November when as many as 1,500 people were killed in less than two weeks—the protests will reemerge. Even the presence of large security apparatuses are no longer enough of a threat to prevent demonstrations against Tehran. Either the government will be obliged to create reforms in a controlled way, or the catalysts of public dissatisfaction will remain alive and unaddressed. Protests will be able to emerge in greater size at any moment and resentment will build, eventually leading to a full-scale uprising.

The Latest Chapter in Iran’s Hostage Diplomacy
Henry Rome/The Washington Institute/October 08/2022
U.S. policymakers should be careful about concluding that Tehran’s decision to relax restrictions on two detained American citizens has anything to do with the nuclear talks.
On October 1, Iran lifted a travel ban on U.S. dual national Baquer Namazi and granted a weeklong humanitarian furlough to his son Siamak, also a dual national. The elder Namazi, who is eighty-five, departed Iran on October 5 and traveled to the United Arab Emirates for an urgent medical procedure. Both the decision and the surrounding Iranian press coverage have fanned speculation that the country is on the verge of reaching a broader prisoner swap agreement with the United States, potentially as part of the ongoing effort to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Yet a closer look at the Namazi case and Tehran’s past handling of hostages suggests other possibilities.
Many Drivers Behind Iran’s Hostage Tactics
Tehran has long used hostage-taking as a tool of statecraft. Since its initial seizure of American hostages in 1979, the Islamic Republic has used both the detention and subsequent bargaining over the release of foreign and dual nationals as a means of extracting concessions from Western governments, including money and the release of Iranians arrested abroad. The regime also detains such individuals and charges them with serious crimes like espionage in order to intimidate foreigners and its own population. By frequently arresting foreign nationals, particularly from Europe and the United States, Iranian security agencies also ensure that even when some are released, Tehran still has a cadre of other individuals to trade for concessions at any given moment.
The Namazis are among four Iranian American dual nationals who have been the subject of negotiations in recent years. The other two are businessman Emad Shargi and Morad Tahbaz, a conservationist and businessman who also holds British citizenship. The United States also continues to seek information about Robert Levinson, a former FBI agent who disappeared in Iran in 2007 and is presumed dead.
Siamak Namazi, an Iranian American businessman, was initially detained and interrogated on July 18, 2015—four days after the JCPOA was originally reached—then imprisoned that October. His father, a former UNICEF employee and civil servant under the shah’s government, was arrested four months later. In 2016, they were both sentenced to ten years in prison on the charge of “collaboration with a hostile government,” meaning the United States—an accusation that the Namazi family, the U.S. government, and human rights groups have described as baseless.
What the Announcement Does—and Doesn’t—Mean
Iranian statements and press reports initially hinted that the Namazi decision was part of a broader prisoner deal that could involve releasing billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets held by South Korea. But Washington has denied this, and no other prisoners have been freed by either country.
So why did Iran release two Americans? At this point, the decision appears to have been a unilateral move, one potentially prompted by health concerns regarding the elder Namazi. The family stated last month that his health had deteriorated significantly, and he was scheduled to undergo a carotid endarterectomy in Abu Dhabi to clear “a severe blockage to his left internal carotid artery.”
Tehran may also be keen to deflect attention from the unrest rippling across the country and give the appearance of flexibility to foreign or domestic audiences. Indeed, the announcement coincided with an intensified regime crackdown against protesters over the weekend, as Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei publicly characterized the demonstrations as a U.S. and Israeli plot. Perhaps Tehran was trying to gain credit for a humanitarian gesture amid widening repression.
As for the domestic media chatter that foreign exchange reserves were poised for release, such stories may have been intended to bolster the Iranian economy rather than report on an actual deal in the works. The rial has depreciated almost 14 percent against the dollar over the past six weeks alone as the nuclear talks stalled. Promising imminent sanctions relief is a common—and usually unsuccessful—Iranian strategy for supporting the currency market.
Potential Deals
To be sure, a formal prisoner deal has long been on the table—if the United States and Iran reach an agreement to revive the JCPOA, swapping detainees would reportedly be part of the first stage in its implementation. Publicly, both governments insist that the prisoner issue is technically separate from the nuclear negotiations, but in practice they are closely linked, with U.S. officials indicating that the administration is unlikely to agree to a nuclear deal if Americans remain detained.
Yet given the persistent deadlock in the nuclear talks, the parties may at some point pursue a standalone deal on detainees. In a September interview with 60 Minutes, President Ebrahim Raisi stated that the prisoner issue “can be conducted separately from the nuclear talks. It can be done between the two countries,” indicating a willingness to work outside the multilateral JCPOA framework. For its part, the U.S. State Department noted on October 5 that it was committed to “securing the freedom of all remaining wrongfully detained U.S. citizens in Iran,” without referencing the JCPOA negotiations.
However it is struck, any potential prisoner deal may hinge on the fate of Iran’s billions of dollars in South Korea. Between $6.5 and $9 billion in revenue from Iranian energy sales is frozen in South Korean banks, and Tehran has linked these funds with the fate of foreign detainees. For years, Seoul has refused to give Iran access to this money due to longstanding concerns about U.S. sanctions. Under the Trump administration, South Korean officials worked with Washington on developing a won-denominated payment channel modeled on a separate Swiss arrangement, but it was never set up. With no progress on freeing its assets, Iran has lashed out against Seoul, seizing a South Korean-flagged tanker last year and banning the import of Korean home appliances.
If Tehran does manage to access any of these frozen funds after freeing hostages, it would not be the first time Washington has appeared to link the release of Iranian funds with the release of prisoners. In the 1981 deal that freed America’s embassy hostages, the two governments agreed to set up a claims tribunal in The Hague to adjudicate the release of funds that the shah had paid for military materiel ordered from the West but never delivered after the revolution—in essence, seeking the return of Iran’s own money.
In 1991, after Iran played a key role in facilitating the release of U.S. hostages from Lebanon, the Bush administration agreed to pay $278 million to settle some of these shah-era claims. Although Washington denied any connection between the two actions, President Bush told the foreign minister of Oman that settling these claims was an issue “clearly tied to the hostages.” (Muscat has long played a key interlocutor role with Iran, and Oman was Baquer Namazi’s first stop en route to the UAE this week.)
In 2016, at the same time the JCPOA was being implemented, Iran released four American prisoners while the United States released or dropped charges against seven Iranian prisoners. Simultaneously, Washington flew $400 million in cash to Iran as part of a larger settlement involving the shah-era arms sales. The Obama administration denied that the cash represented a ransom payment.
More recently, Britain reached a settlement with Iran earlier this year regarding $530 million in pre-revolutionary tank sales, most of which were never delivered. Tehran simultaneously freed two British Iranian nationals. It also released Morad Tahbaz from prison, though he was not allowed to leave the country.
Even the Iran-Contra scandal in the 1980s fits the pattern of U.S. willingness to strike prisoner bargains with Tehran. As part of this convoluted episode, Washington pushed Iran to seek the release of Americans held by Lebanese Hezbollah. In exchange, the United States provided weapons to the Islamic Republic in what President Ronald Reagan later acknowledged as “trading arms for hostages.”
Implications
Although it is possible that Iran intended the Namazi announcement as a goodwill gesture aimed at securing a prisoner swap with Washington, no evidence of such a deal has arisen so far. An October 3 report by Nour News, an outlet close to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, stated that Baquer Namazi’s release “was not related to” any supposed deal in which four prisoners would be exchanged from each side. The ongoing speculation about such a deal also calls into question who the fourth prisoner would be on Tehran’s side, given that Namazi has left the country. According to Iran’s Intelligence Ministry, nine foreigners (all from Europe) have been arrested amid the current unrest, and the protests could provide a pretext for additional detentions.
Whatever the case, U.S. policymakers should be cautious about reading too much into the Namazi situation as a signal of Iran’s commitment to the nuclear deal. At this point, the decision could be read either way. On one hand, a prisoner swap was already envisioned as a key part of reimplementing the JCPOA, so by preempting that step, Tehran could be signaling that it will not go through with full implementation anytime soon. On the other hand, Iran may believe that a “humanitarian gesture” was the best way of unsticking the negotiations or, at least, limiting the chances of a complete breakdown.
*Henry Rome is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute. Previously, he was the deputy head of research and director for Global Macro, Iran, and Israel at Eurasia Group.

Europe must trigger snapback of UN sanctions on Iran
Anthony Ruggiero and Andrea Stricker/The Hill/October 08/2022
France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States have pursued a bifurcated Iran policy: attempting to revive an expiring nuclear deal while tolerating the Islamic Republic’s brutal repression of the Iranian people. The latest protests and civil unrest in Iran raise an uncomfortable reality for the West: A new deal will provide significant sanctions relief that will fuel the regime’s violent crackdown. Tehran’s latest demands in nuclear talks have also frustrated the powers, with the Europeans noting that the regime’s foot-dragging over reviving a weaker version of the 2015 nuclear accord raises “serious doubts as to Iran’s intentions.” For 18 months, Europe and the United States negotiated in earnest, but as the months slipped by, Tehran’s outrageous demands periodically stalled the talks and provided the regime with room to expand its nuclear program.
America and the E3 — shorthand for London, Paris, and Berlin — tried the path of diplomacy, but Tehran is not interested in a deal, however generous its reported terms.
The West must now pivot from negotiations to pressure.
As the first step to shedding the remnants of the old deal and amassing necessary leverage to counter and roll back Tehran’s nuclear advances, Europe must trigger a “snapback” of prior UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions on Iran. That step, coupled with additional diplomatic, economic, and military pressure, would frustrate Tehran’s efforts and hasten the demise of the Islamic Republic regime.
Iran has exploited negotiations over the accord, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), to place itself at the threshold of a nuclear weapons capability. According to independent analysis of data gathered by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), if Tehran decides to produce nuclear weapons, it could make weapons-grade uranium for three atomic bombs within a month, and two additional weapons within four months.
These accelerated timelines are due to Iran’s operation of faster, more advanced centrifuges, producing uranium enriched to 60 percent — Tehran’s highest level ever — and making uranium metal, a material used in nuclear weapons. At the same time, Tehran has reduced IAEA monitoring, making it more difficult for the agency to detect a breakout.
Iran has also refused to cooperate with a nearly four-year IAEA investigation into the Islamic Republic’s suspicious atomic work. Tehran’s actions are in violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which supersedes its JCPOA obligations. Alarmingly, the IAEA reported last month that the agency is no longer “in a position to provide assurance that Iran’s nuclear program is exclusively peaceful.”
Instead of demanding accountability for Iran’s nuclear malfeasance and NPT non-compliance, however, the E3, along with the Biden administration, have continued with diplomatic business as usual. Last June, the parties did support an IAEA Board of Governors censure resolution after Tehran failed to meet an agreed deadline to cooperate with the IAEA. Yet despite the agency’s latest dire warning, at the board’s meeting last month, the E3, the United States, and 52 countries issued only a joint statement calling for Iran’s cooperation. In other, words, Biden and the E3 backed down despite Tehran’s intransigence.
The Islamic Republic views the West’s timid response as a signal to push forward with the regime’s atomic work, while brutally quashing dissent. World powers must immediately declare the JCPOA dead and pivot — as rapidly as possible — to deterring, countering, and rolling back the Iranian regime and its nuclear weapons capabilities.
To begin, the E3 should initiate “snapback” to formally terminate UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which codified the JCPOA and suspended UN sanctions on Iran’s nuclear, missile, and military programs. The snapback would restore previous UN sanctions resolutions on Iran, including a requirement that Tehran halt uranium enrichment and come into compliance with its NPT obligations. Likewise, the resolutions prohibited Iran’s import or export of certain missiles, sensitive equipment, and materiel. The resolutions also imposed an arms embargo on Iran, which lapsed in 2020 but would be restored via snapback.
The United States exited the nuclear deal in 2018 and unsuccessfully attempted to enact a snapback in 2020. However, any one of the remaining JCPOA participants — the E3 plus Russia and China — could trigger the reimposition of UN penalties by notifying the UNSC of Iran’s significant non-performance under the deal. A complicated process prevents Tehran’s allies (Moscow and Beijing) from using their UNSC vetoes to maintain the suspension of the sanctions. The prior UN sanctions would become effective midnight on the 31st day after the original notification.
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To be sure, Russia and China would refuse to implement previous UN sanctions. Thus, the E3 and United States would also need to resurrect their pre-JCPOA pressure campaign on Iran using all diplomatic, economic, and military tools at their disposal. They must sanction Russian and Chinese government entities, companies, individuals, and banks that violate the resolutions or aid Tehran’s nuclear, missile, and military programs. Reimposing UN sanctions and a coordinated European/American pressure campaign could be devastating for the Islamic Republic, whose economy is rebounding due to lax enforcement of sanctions but is still facing slow growth and inflation in addition to protests.
World powers are reluctant to declare an end to negotiations. Yet admitting failure provides an opportunity to reset Iran policy and support the people against the regime. All eyes turn to Europe to accept Iran’s “no” as the final answer.
*Anthony Ruggiero is senior director of the Nonproliferation and Biodefense program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and served as National Security Council senior director for counterproliferation and biodefense in the Trump administration. *Andrea Stricker is the deputy director of the program. Follow them on Twitter @NatSecAnthony and @StrickerNonpro respectively. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.

Social Media in Iran’s Protests: A New Public Sphere?
Mehdi Khalaji/The Washington Institute/October 08/2022
Apps like Clubhouse and Instagram have greatly broadened the people’s ability to exchange ideas and even criticize the regime, but authorities have simultaneously subverted, coopted, and silenced these platforms at will.
The Iranian regime has long interrupted citizens’ access to social media, especially Facebook, Twitter, and Telegram. Yet two prominent apps have frequently been spared from this suppression: Clubhouse and Instagram. Why have these apps been permitted to continue operation leading up to—and at times even during—the ongoing mass protests? And how are demonstrators and other Iranians making use of them?
Instagram: An Economic, Propaganda, and Intelligence Tool
Instagram has faced much less disruption than other apps in part because it has become an appealing venue for various types of advertising, thereby playing a significant role in boosting small businesses in Iran. According to the BETA Research Center, Iranian Instagram adoption increased from 24 million users in 2017 to 48 million in 2021. Over the past couple years in particular, Iranian celebrities and influencers have rapidly taken to the service, generating large numbers of followers.
Instagram’s economic impact has become even more significant amid the financial crunch of the COVID-19 pandemic. During his 2021 election campaign, President Ebrahim Raisi specifically supported freedom of access to Instagram for economic reasons, often mentioning anecdotes about his daughters’ use of the app for purchases. The implications for government revenue are significant as well: in 2020, the Majlis enacted a new tax on Instagram accounts with more than half a million followers.
The regime’s tolerance toward Instagram goes beyond economics, however—authorities have also used the app for cyber propaganda purposes, systematically monitoring influencers’ accounts and in many cases exploiting them. For instance, security and intelligence agencies have forced some celebrities to post regime messages tailored to influence the younger generations on urgent issues, particularly in cases when state media are deemed inefficient for that purpose. The accounts of popular film actors such as Dariush Arjmand and Parviz Parastouei are among those known for serving this role, whether willingly or unwillingly.
More broadly, leaving Instagram open enables the regime to gather information about ordinary citizens, activists, and popular trends in public opinion. The quantity and quality of data that the intelligence and security services collect from Instagram likely cannot be gained by any alternative method.
Of course, whenever the regime completely blocks internet access in a given area, Instagram becomes inaccessible just like every other app. And compared to past periods of unrest, these outages have been more frequent during the current protests. According to an October 5 Washington Post story, internet blackouts became a daily occurrence after regime violence against protesters spiked on September 21: “[T]raffic patterns show a cyclical nature to the disruptions, beginning every afternoon around 4 p.m. local time—the end of the Iranian workday, when most protests begin—and returning to normal levels after midnight.”
Earlier today, the U.S. Treasury Department responded to this suppression by issuing sanctions against seven senior Iranian political and security officials, including Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi and key commanders within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its Sarallah Security Headquarters, a branch tasked with internal security functions in the capital. According to the announcement, “The United States condemns the Iranian government’s internet shutdown and continued violent suppression of peaceful protest and will not hesitate to target those who direct and support such actions.” The move follows the department’s September 23 issuance of “Iran General License D-2,” which authorizes “exports of additional tools” to help Iranians access the internet.
Clubhouse: A Double-Edged Sword?
After launching in March 2020, the Clubhouse app become an exceptional medium for Iranians to exchange opinions on public affairs and current political topics. Since its beginnings as an invitation-only service, Clubhouse has come to host “casual, drop-in audio conversations” in “rooms” open to thousands of users. It quickly attracted more attention amid COVID-19 lockdowns across the globe, as users sought new ways of socializing from a distance. In Iran, many users also saw it as an opportunity to exercise limited freedom of speech away from government censorship. With the presence of influential political figures such as former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, the app became a key forum for free discussion of forbidden topics and heated debate between diametrically opposed schools of thought. These exchanges have even been highlighted on other social media platforms and the pages of major newspapers as more public figures began to participate in the app.
Currently, Clubhouse rooms are not blocked by the government, and Iranians inside and outside the country can freely meet with each other to exchange ideas, data, or entertainment—at least when internet service is up and running. Unlike Instagram, it is less valued economically. Rather, it has become a virtual substitute for the traditional public sphere, which the totalitarian regime has largely monopolized or extinguished over the years by enforcing conformity and restricting communication (e.g., via aggressive press censorship).
In particular, Clubhouse has served as a powerful antidote to religious absolutism for the younger generation, who are often referred to in Iranian political literature as “daheh-ye hashtadi-ha” (2000s generation). Many members of this rebellious generation are distinguished by their atypically non-ideological view of Iranian history, as well as their powerful aspirations for autonomy and broad repudiation of traditional authorities who seek to compel their conformity at home, in school, or on the streets. Such alternative ways of thinking have led them to embrace new, more compatible communication platforms. Rejecting centralized guidance over their social identities and activities, many young Iranians have come to prefer Clubhouse, which is physically easy to access and keep private via their phones while still allowing for a measure of democratic participation in a virtual public sphere. The app’s voice features are part of this attraction, as is its lack of limits on how long hosted events can last and how many people can participate.
Clubhouse rose to its current status as Iran’s most politicized social platform after major public figures began to use it to communicate with audiences in an unprecedented way. The app now abounds with popular clubs where thousands of members join rooms dedicated to discussion of daily news developments and issues of crucial public concern, with some forums lasting as long as ten hours. Some users share their opinions during these meetings, while many others sign on just to hear what experts and public figures have to say.
Moreover, Clubhouse rooms provide an unparalleled bridge between Iranians inside the Islamic Republic and those in the diaspora. For decades, the latter community has been systematically disjointed and antagonized by the regime, making it difficult for them to interface with their compatriots back home on sociopolitical issues. The regime’s fabricated “inside/abroad” dichotomy has long divided the people and weakened the social solidarity needed for concerted progress toward democratization.
Thus, despite showing relative tolerance toward Clubhouse, regime authorities are well aware that the app represents a potential security challenge and have acted accordingly at times. In July, for example, they arrested former deputy interior minister Mostafa Tajzadeh—the reformist camp’s most outspoken critic of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—on charges of “conspiracy to act against the country’s security.” The move came after Tajzadeh had been appearing in the country’s most popular Clubhouse rooms for months, where he bluntly criticized the regime, called for reform, and argued against advocates of violent overthrow.
Besides cracking down on certain users and monitoring Clubhouse as a unique source of information on what the people and leading public figures are thinking, the regime has also deployed its cyber forces to shape discourse on the app. This includes efforts to steer discussions away from certain topics, intimidate audience members, and represent the government’s voice. In addition, the regime has created rooms of its own where obscene language and hooliganism are promoted in a bid to pollute the political atmosphere and divide the populace. Indeed, the contest over discourse on Clubhouse raises serious questions about how social media might be abused for political ends in Iran, as well as the extent to which people are aware of the subtle and potent mechanisms that the regime uses to manipulate and mislead them in times of crisis.
Interestingly, Iran’s heavily censored traditional press has been closely following certain political and social rooms on Clubhouse and often reports on significant debates that take place there. Some Persian media outlets inside and outside the country have also launched their own clubs, using the app to strengthen their influence or widen their audience. This proliferation of communities on Clubhouse reflects the polarity and plurality of Iranian society to a degree that is rarely visible in mainstream media. Even the clergy have become active on the app, especially the younger generation of seminarians.
Yet observers must still be careful to avoid a critical misperception about Clubhouse, Instagram, and other social media platforms—namely, that they can ever replace the real public sphere, meaning physical places where citizens can gather together and safely communicate about any issue relevant to their lives and society. Apps do provide an effective way for powerless people to raise their voices and cast off the ideological “flatness” imposed by a totalitarian regime like the Islamic Republic. They are also an efficient tool for networking and organizing civil and political movements. At the end of the day, however, the real public sphere is essential to determining whether a people’s impulse toward democratization can survive and develop. In that sense, Iranians may still have a long way to go before they can cast off the monopoly of their totalitarian system.
*Mehdi Khalaji is the Libitzky Family Fellow at The Washington Institute. He would like to thank Moeed Baradaran for his contributions to this PolicyWatch.

Thanks to the Biden Administration, Russia and Iran Are Closer than Ever
Majid Rafizadeh/ Gatestone Institute/October 08/2022
"I am absolutely sincere in this regard when I say that Iran got much more than it could expect [from the Biden administration]..... [The Iranian leaders] are fighting for [their] national interest like lions. They fight for every comma, every word, and as a rule, quite successfully." — Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's chief negotiator for the US in the nuclear talks, The New York Post, March 12, 2022.
Russia, of course, is freely trading with Iran, in spite of sanctions against both countries.
Russia and the ruling mullahs of Iran are also ratcheting up their military cooperation in plain sight. The Iranian regime continues to provide Russia with military drones, which have inflicted significant damage on Ukraine -- the first time Iranian weapons have been deployed on European soil....
"[N]ow we're going to pay them hundreds of billions of dollars, and they're going to have nuclear weapons within a short period of time. Honestly, they can't be stupid; they must hate our country...." — Former President Donald J. Trump, iranintl.com September 4, 2022.
Russia and Iran are ratcheting up their military cooperation in plain sight. The Iranian regime continues to provide Russia with military drones, which have inflicted significant damage on Ukraine -- the first time Iranian weapons have been deployed on European soil. Pictured: An Iranian drone that was shot down near Kupiansk, Ukraine. (Image source: Ukrainian Armed Forces)
Thanks to the Biden administration's weak, or absent, leadership, Russia and the regime of Iran's mullahs have become closer, more emboldened and more empowered than ever.
The two bedfellows, the authoritarian regimes of Russia and Iran, are, thanks to the Biden administration, running the Iran nuclear talks, while the US waits out in the hall. Russia's chief negotiator, Mikhail Ulyanov, earlier this year praised his Iranian "colleagues":
"I am absolutely sincere in this regard when I say that Iran got much more than it could expect [from the Biden administration]. Our Chinese friends were also very efficient and useful as co-negotiators."
Ulyanov also said that the Iranian leaders "are fighting for [their] national interest like lions. They fight for every comma, every word, and as a rule, quite successfully."
Russia, of course, is freely trading with Iran, in spite of sanctions against both countries. According to Bloomberg:
"Russia said it's strengthening trade with Iran, boosting the economies of both nations as they contend with heavy US sanctions. We're on track to raise trade, economic, logistics, investment, financial, banking cooperation, despite the unprecedented pressure that Russia is experiencing, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said at a meeting with businesses in Tehran.... Trade between Russia and Iran rose by more than 10% in the first quarter.... Trade between the nations rose 81% to a record $3.3 billion ....but Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said that level was 'not acceptable' and vowed to increase two-way commerce to $10 billion a year."
In addition to evading sanctions with complete impunity, Russia and the ruling mullahs of Iran are also ratcheting up their military cooperation in plain sight. The Iranian regime continues to provide Russia with military drones, which have inflicted significant damage on Ukraine -- the first time Iranian weapons have been deployed on European soil. According to the Wall Street Journal:
"Russia has inflicted serious damage on Ukrainian forces with recently introduced Iranian drones, in its first wide-scale deployment of a foreign weapons system since the war began, Ukrainian commanders say."
Russia's use of Iranian drones has killed and wounded Ukrainians. It has proven extremely difficult to shoot down Iran's drones. They are "barely visible on radars; it's a relatively small aerial target that flies mainly at a low altitude" according to Yurii Ihnat, the spokesman for the Ukraine Air Force Command.
While Ukraine has been calling for support, Russia has ratcheted up its use of Iranian "kamikaze" drones, the "Mohajer" and "Shahed" models. Col. Rodion Kulagin of the Ukrainian army remarked that "he hoped the U.S. and allies could provide Ukraine with more advanced antidrone technologies, or would step in to disrupt Iranian drone shipments to Russia."
By providing military drones to Russia, the ruling mullahs are helping Putin to save money and score victories in Ukraine. According to Serhiy Bratchuk, spokesman for the Odessa regional administration:
"The enemy [Russia] is trying to save on missiles.... these Shaheds [Iranian drones] are much cheaper, they can be used much more frequently and in pairs. We are seeing that the enemy can even launch several of these kamikaze drones for one attack".
While Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Russian President Vladimir Putin are increasing their economic and military cooperation, they are seeing no adverse consequences for their actions. "When you project strength," Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, pointed out, "you have peace."
"When you project weakness like this, how can any country look at this performance and not think about weakness and maybe incompetence? And that is inviting this aggression that I've been talking about from Putin to the unholy alliance with Chairman Xi to now the Ayatollah in Iran, who they are still trying to cut a deal with, even though they're completely not reporting the undisclosed sites with the uranium. So this is really dangerous, quite honestly, because it's making the world stage a far more dangerous world."
The Biden administration has not yet abandoned its efforts to revive the nuclear deal, which will bring to the Iranian regime many billions of dollars and soon, enough enriched uranium for a large numbers of nuclear weapons, complete with ballistic missiles to deliver them. As former President Donald Trump stated, "now we're going to pay them hundreds of billions of dollars, and they're going to have nuclear weapons within a short period of time. Honestly, they can't be stupid; they must hate our country...."
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
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Security Council Reforms Under Discussion Again
Dr. Nassif Hitti/Asharq Al-Awsat/October, 08/2022
The current session of the United Nations General Assembly saw a resurgence of talk about the need to reform the Security Council. This is undoubtedly due to the intensifying international challenges and dangers from the Ukrainian war which is open to the worst possible scenarios, to the various repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic on societal stability in quite a few countries, and thus on stability in many regions of the world, along with environmental challenges that also have serious security implications in different states and places.
All this comes in parallel with the spread and escalation of conflicts with different features and causes, which are sometimes contained without being successfully resolved. Countries and regions witnessing such conflicts often turn into a theater for disputes between international and regional powers, requiring comprehensive settlement, which falls within the core responsibilities of the UN Security Council. All of this reinforces and even renews the need for an effective Council.
Security Council reform carried four titles that do not contradict each other. Many see that they are all cohesive, although some may prioritize one objective over another. Those include reconsidering the function of the Council, expanding its membership to make it more representative and therefore legitimate, regulating the use of the veto right, and granting access to underrepresented countries, especially the Dark Continent, as key African countries have repeatedly emphasized this matter.
The Security Council was expanded in 1965 to include 15 countries, by adding 4 non-permanent seats.
Pointing to the importance of this matter at the international level, two main factors emerge: The first is the increase in the number of independent states, and the second is the transformation in the structure of the international system, with the rise of new poles and powers, and the emergence of countries that enjoy economic, scientific and other soft powers, which is no less important than the military component.
Recalling the historical context of Security Council reform, we note that the late Dr. Boutros Boutros-Ghali, upon assuming his responsibilities as Secretary-General of the United Nations in 1993, launched a comprehensive path of reform, which was known as the peace agenda. A panel of experts and stakeholders was established to discuss and formulate practical proposals for this purpose.
Kofi Annan also launched an initiative to develop and expand the Security Council by increasing its (permanent and non-permanent) seats to include 25 countries.
At the same time, four major powers in the international system (Germany, India, Brazil, and Japan) presented an expansion project, which makes them permanent members without veto rights, for 15 years, after which a decision would be taken on the renewal of their status. In short, the expansion of the Security Council to include more permanent and non-permanent seats is currently under discussion. However, such a matter is not simple if we take into account three facts: First, the permanent members may not wish to reduce their ability to influence very basic international issues by involving other powers within this framework.
Second, when it comes to the representation of a particular geographical region, rivalry arises between neighboring states over the “power game” and the competition and influence between the concerned regional powers at the regional level.
Third, talking about regulating or restricting the use of the veto drops a basic card, if not the main one, from the hands of countries that currently hold this power. This issue was met with strong opposition with various justifications.
The challenge of reforming and developing the Security Council to make it more representative of the map of international powers and the nature of the multilateral, intertwined, and integrated global system, is more than necessary to enhance its effectiveness and legitimacy and enable it to overcome problems that affect everyone, albeit in different forms and times.
International parties have begun to work through different committees with multiple international representations, to formulate reform proposals to enhance the legitimacy and effectiveness of the Security Council.
It is not an easy task, but remains essential to face the increasing and different international challenges in our “global village.”

China: The Immovable Supreme Leader
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/October, 08/2022
When he took over as China’s leader 10 years ago, President Xi Jinping was hailed by Western experts and media as a man who would open the path for major political reforms to reflect the rising tiger’s economic transformation. Some even saw him as a wiser version of Mikhail Gorbachev and speculated that he might adopt the end-of-history narrative by accepting democratization as the only option for a modern industrial power.
A decade later, however, we know how wrong those assessments of Xi were. As he prepares for the coming National Conference of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) starting 16 October, Xi may be the subject of another misunderstanding. This time he is presented as an ambitious autocrat whose dream of world domination threatens the fragile world order in place since the end of the Cold War.
Misunderstanding Xi ten years ago persuaded the western democracies, notably the United States, and Japan, to open every door on which China knocked. According to best estimates since Xi’s ascent to supreme power, Western, Japanese, and Taiwanese investment in China more than doubled while the People’s Republic concluded sweet-heart trade deals with the European Union, Japan, the United States, and Australia. Foreign direct investment in China by the US, for example, rose from $50 billion to $118 billion in 2021. At the same time, major world markets were opened to Chinese businesses in what looked like a good deal in which the West and Japan provided the capital and technology and China furnished low-priced manufactured goods, a felicitous circle that tamed the monster of global inflation.
At the same time, Xi’s adoption of a new narrative based on a selective reading of Confucius was seen as a sign of moving away from the Communist discourse and its Maoist version. The fact that China kept a fairly low profile on global political issues also backed the assumption that Xi would never pose a threat to the Western-dominated world order. China was never invited to the top club of G-7 and for a while G-8 with Russia added. But it was welcomed in G-20, a talking shop, as one of the so-called BRIC nations along with several other “emerging nations”.
We now know that Xi and his advisers were playing a long game the Chinese way. Classical Chinese strategy advises obliquity in every move. Unlike Western strategies, you never pursue a goal openly nor attack an adversary head-on; you always choose a roundabout way. Napoleon always counseled aiming at the heart of the adversary in a “total war” while Kutuzov, the Russian Marshall who defeated him in 1812, probably heeding Sun Tzu’s advice to dodge a strong attack and hit when the adversary is in a weak position.
Thus the theory that Xi is preparing China for a war with the United States, ostensibly over Taiwan, maybe as much of a misunderstanding as seeing him as a Sancho Panza to any American Don Quichot. The various nightmare scenarios and books about the clash of two giants may well be based on that misunderstanding.
There is no doubt that Xi is closing a chapter opened under Hua Kuo-Feng and continued under Deng Xiaoping as Supreme Leader and Li Xiannian, Jiang Zemin, and Hu Jintao as president in which China tried and succeeded in establishing itself as a normal nation playing according to the rules but also demanding respect.
What Xi wants now is deference at least on issues that he thinks are vital for his own position as at the center of power in Beijing.
There is no doubt that Xi will secure a third term as the top leader, combining his position as secretary-general of the party with those of President of the People’s Republic and chairman of the military commission. Having changed the party’s constitution he is no longer required to retire at age 68 and, heading to be 70 next year, he may hang on to power for another 10 years. Nevertheless, things may not be as easy as Xi hopes. The CCP, with a membership of 98 million is full of young and ambitious men and women who regard Xi and others in his generation of party chiefs as “Red Princes”, sons of first-generation Communists who owe their ascendancy to nepotism.
Then there is China’s huge and rapidly growing military machine which consumes over $200 billion of the nation’s income each year and contains tens of thousands of young, highly educated, and ambitious officers who may not see Xi, a man with no military background, as the sole arbiter of the nation’s fate.
To be sure, Xi has tried to forestall any threat to his authority by purging over 170,000 of the party cadres at all levels, the biggest night of the long knives in Chinese Communist history since Mao was the Great Helmsman. He has also imposed his “thoughts” as part of the CCP’s constitution and, in the coming Conference, he hopes to be named The People’s Leader (Pinyin), equaling Mao.
And, if he sees that he can get away with it, he will also demand to have his giant portrait installed next to Mao’s in the Square of Celestial Peace in Beijing. With a gross domestic product of almost $20 trillion, China is the world’s second-largest economy with a middle class estimated to number over 300 million. It is not at all certain that this growing middle class which has adopted Western-style patterns of consumption and lifestyles will forever tolerate the one-man rule that Xi is trying to build.
Xi faces two other problems.
First, the Chinese economy is clearly slowing down with hundreds of businesses going bust and tens of thousands of projects abandoned while stagflation looms on the horizon.
The second is what some see as systemic corruption. Xi has launched a massive anti-corruption campaign, even issuing death sentences for some senior party figures. But many in China suspect that he is using the campaign as a cover for purging opponents in the party. Xi’s achievement of total personal power may be coming at a time when his real position is weakening. Paradoxically, that could be bad news for everyone. To divert attention from his weakness, Xi may be tempted to flex muscles on the world stage with unpredictable consequences. But even if he doesn’t he may not be able to help bring Russia and Europe back from the edge of the abyss by ending the war in Ukraine.