English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 08/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.october08.22.htm

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Bible Quotations For today
I tell you, anyone who hears my word and believes him who sent me has eternal life, and does not come under judgement, but has passed from death to life.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 05/24-30/:”Very truly, I tell you, anyone who hears my word and believes him who sent me has eternal life, and does not come under judgement, but has passed from death to life. ‘Very truly, I tell you, the hour is coming, and is now here, when the dead will hear the voice of the Son of God, and those who hear will live. For just as the Father has life in himself, so he has granted the Son also to have life in himself; and he has given him authority to execute judgement, because he is the Son of Man. Do not be astonished at this; for the hour is coming when all who are in their graves will hear his voice and will come out those who have done good, to the resurrection of life, and those who have done evil, to the resurrection of condemnation. ‘I can do nothing on my own. As I hear, I judge; and my judgement is just, because I seek to do not my own will but the will of him who sent me.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 07-08/2022
Question: “Does the Bible instruct us to forgive and forget?”/GotQuestions.org?
Aoun: Lebanon awaiting outcome of Hochstein's contacts with Israelis
Lapid calls for 'avoiding cries of war' in gas dispute with Lebanon
Hochstein to relay Israeli remarks to Bou Saab, negotiations 'ongoing'
Berri says Lebanese remarks over Hochstein's proposal are minor
Israel may wage 'preemptive' strike if Hezbollah preparing attack
Bassil suggests dialogue over president, slams Berri over vote date
ARAB ART FAIR is coming back!
Lebanon inspecting new suspected cases of cholera
Ziad Hayek to Naharnet: My presidential chances have surged
A Match Made in Heaven: The Hezbollah-Amal Nexus/Emanuele Ottolenghi/International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT)/October 2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 07-08/2022
Iranian coroner says Mahsa Amini did not die from blows to body
More than half Iran's Revolutionary Guard to be forever barred from Canada: Trudeau
Anger in Paris over Iran ‘spy’ charges
US, UK hold drone drill in Arabian Gulf after Iran seizures
Ukraine war: Under the threat of a nuclear strike and a long looming winter, indomitable Ukrainian spirit holds
Putin will escalate the war anyway, so start Ukraine's NATO negotiations now, Lithuanian PM tells Insider
Russian oil exports fall to their lowest level in a year as Moscow leans more on Asian buyers ahead of price cap plans
Putin's friends and enemies sent him piles of melons, a gift certificate for a tractor, and death wishes for his 70th birthday
Leader of Belarus gifts Putin a tractor for 70th birthday
Russia beginning to 'prepare their society' to launch a nuclear attack, Zelenskyy warns, but adds Putin 'not ready to do it'
Israeli forces kill 2 Palestinians in West Bank: Palestinian ministry
Top UK Catholic urges PM Liz Truss to reconsider Tel Aviv-Jerusalem embassy move
Leaders of Turkey, Armenia hold face-to-face meeting
US kills 3 Islamic State leaders in 2 Syria operations

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 07-08/2022
Now is not the time for naivety on Iran/Luke Coffey/Arab News/October 07/2022
Women, life and the pursuit of liberty in Iran/Azadeh Pourzand/Arab News/October 07/2022
Multiple relationships affect push for Turkey-Armenia normalization/Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/October 07/2022
The shattered lands in the shadow of Russia’s sham referendums/Nick Paton Walsh/Arab News/October 07/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 07-08/2022
Question: “Does the Bible instruct us to forgive and forget?”
GotQuestions.org?/October 07/2022
Answer: The phrase “forgive and forget” is not found in the Bible. However, there are numerous verses commanding us to “forgive one another” (e.g., Matthew 6:14 and Ephesians 4:32). A Christian who is not willing to forgive others will find his fellowship with God hindered (Matthew 6:15) and can reap bitterness and the loss of reward (Hebrews 12:14–15; 2 John 1:8). Forgiveness is a decision of the will. Since God commands us to forgive, we must make a conscious choice to obey God and forgive. The offender may not desire forgiveness and may not ever change, but that doesn’t negate God’s desire that we possess a forgiving spirit (Matthew 5:44). Ideally, the offender will seek reconciliation, but, if not, the one wronged can still make a decision to forgive.
Of course, it is impossible to truly forget sins that have been committed against us. We cannot selectively “delete” events from our memory. The Bible states that God does not “remember” our wickedness (Hebrews 8:12). But God is still all-knowing. God remembers that we have “sinned and fall short of the glory of God” (Romans 3:23). But, having been forgiven, we are positionally (or judicially) justified. Heaven is ours, as if our sin had never occurred. If we belong to Him through faith in Christ, God does not condemn us for our sins (Romans 8:1). In that sense God “forgives and forgets.”
If by “forgive and forget” one means, “I choose to forgive the offender for the sake of Christ and move on with my life,” then this is a wise and godly course of action. As much as possible, we should forget what is behind and strive toward what is ahead (Philippians 3:13). We should forgive each other “just as in Christ God forgave” (Ephesians 4:32). We must not allow a root of bitterness to spring up in our hearts (Hebrews 12:15).
However, if by “forgive and forget” one means, “I will act as if the sin had never occurred and live as if I don’t remember it,” then we can run into trouble. For example, a rape victim can choose to forgive the rapist, but that does not mean she should act as if that sin had never happened. To spend time alone with the rapist, especially if he is unrepentant, is not what Scripture teaches. Forgiveness involves not holding a sin against a person any longer, but forgiveness is different from trust. It is wise to take precautions, and sometimes the dynamics of a relationship will have to change. “The prudent see danger and take refuge, / but the simple keep going and pay the penalty” (Proverbs 22:3). Jesus told His followers to “be as shrewd as snakes and as innocent as doves” (Matthew 10:16). In the context of keeping company with unrepentant sinners, we must be “innocent” (willing to forgive) yet at the same time “shrewd” (being cautious).
The ideal is for the offender to truly repent of the sin and for the offended to forgive and forget. The Bible tells us true repentance will result in a change of actions (Luke 3:8–14; Acts 3:19) and that love keeps no record of wrongs (1 Corinthians 13:5) and covers a multitude of sins (1 Peter 4:8). However, changing hearts is God’s business, and, until an offender has a true, supernatural heart change, it is only wise to limit the level of trust one places in that person. Being cautious doesn’t mean we haven’t forgiven. It simply means we are not God and we cannot see that person’s heart.

Aoun: Lebanon awaiting outcome of Hochstein's contacts with Israelis
Naharnet/October 07/2022
President Michel Aoun announced Friday that “Lebanon is awaiting the outcome of the contacts that U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein is carrying out with the Israelis, in order to specify the course of the indirect negotiations for the demarcation of the southern maritime border.”Aoun’s remarks come a day after Israel rejected Lebanon’s amendments to Hochstein’s latest proposal. The president voiced his remarks in talks with visiting Arab League Assistant Secretary General Hossam Zaki. Separately, Aoun said that “a country such as Lebanon with its uniqueness and pluralism cannot realize national partnership and respect for the National Pact in the absence of a president.”"The ultimate priority at the moment must be for the election of a new president, because the presence of a president is essential for the formation of a new government and not the opposite," the president added.

Lapid calls for 'avoiding cries of war' in gas dispute with Lebanon
Naharnet/October 07/2022
Israel’s security and political affairs cabinet has held a session that lasted three and a half hours to discuss the Lebanese remarks to draft sea border demarcation agreement presented by U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein to both parties. “As expected, the session did not produce any decisions and not much of its discussions has been leaked,” Lebanon’s al-Akhbar newspaper reported on Friday. Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid “was receiving the latest updates from the Americans during the session” and he was quoted as saying at the end of the meeting that “the Biden administration is trying to press Lebanon to back down from some of its remarks or reservations, in order to reach a gas agreement according to the original format put forward by mediator Hochstein,” the daily reported. “We need to avoid cries of war. We are also trying to reach agreements at the moment,” Lapid added.
Israeli army chief Aviv Kohavi for his part said that “the agreement with Lebanon is good and preserves the Israeli security interest.” The representatives of Israel’s security and intelligence agencies also agreed that the draft deal reached prior to the Lebanese remarks is good for Israel and must be signed. A senior Israeli official had said Thursday that it Israel would reject Lebanon's amendments to the U.S.-drafted proposal. Hochstein later told Lebanon that Israel had only rejected some of the Lebanese remarks and not the entire agreement. Israel had welcomed the terms set out by Hochstein and said they would be subjected to legal review, but gave no indication it sought substantive changes. Lebanon presented its response to Washington's proposal on Tuesday. Washington's terms were also welcomed by Iran-backed Hezbollah, a major player in Lebanon that considers Israel its arch-enemy.

Hochstein to relay Israeli remarks to Bou Saab, negotiations 'ongoing'
Naharnet/October 07/2022
U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein will on Friday deliver written Israeli remarks over his proposal to Lebanon’s deputy parliament speaker Elias Bou Saab, LBCI TV reported. “This confirms that the negotiations between the Lebanese and Israeli sides are still ongoing and have move from the phase of political negotiations to the phase of studying the legal and technical terms in a calm atmosphere away from tensions,” LBCI added.

Berri says Lebanese remarks over Hochstein's proposal are minor
Naharnet/October 07/2022
Speaker Nabih Berri has said that Lebanon’s remarks over the sea border demarcation proposal presented by U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein are “minor,” hours after Israel rejected them through an unnamed senior official. “Lebanon does not deal with media leaks, but rather with facts that are supposed to be carried by U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein, with whom our contacts are exclusively taking place,” Berri said in remarks to Asharq al-Awsat newspaper published Friday. “The Lebanese remarks are minor and had been discussed with the U.S. envoy before they were officially sent,” Berri added.
He also noted that “what’s happening now are domestic Israeli electoral skirmishes that do not concern us,” adding that “Lebanon is awaiting an official response from Hochstein to act accordingly.”

Israel may wage 'preemptive' strike if Hezbollah preparing attack
Naharnet/October 07/2022
Israel’s security and political affairs cabinet has authorized “preemptive” strikes on Hezbollah if Israel determines that the Iran-backed Lebanese group is preparing to launch an attack related to the maritime gas dispute. In its session on Thursday, the cabinet said it authorizes “the possibility of launching preemptive offensive operations” should Israel obtain “credible information” that Hezbollah is “preparing to wage an attack,” Lebanon’s pro-Hezbollah newspaper al-Akhbar reported on Friday. “Prime Minister Yair Lapid, Defense Minister Benny Gantz and Alternate PM Naftali Bennett have been authorized to assume this mission without asking for cabinet’s permission,” the daily added.

Bassil suggests dialogue over president, slams Berri over vote date
Naharnet/October 07/2022
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil on Tuesday suggested holding “national dialogue” over the presidential election, as he criticized Speaker Nabih Berri for choosing October 13 as a date for the upcoming presidential vote session. Reciting the FPM’s “presidential priorities” paper, Bassil said the new president must “preserve national sovereignty, protect the border and the full rights, devise a defense strategy in which the state is the main authority, preserve and develop Lebanon’s ties with the world, and achieve a swift and safe repatriation of the displaced Syrians.”He added that the FPM’s support for any candidate hinges on “how much he commits to our presidential aspirations.”“We will distribute this paper to a number of blocs and leaders so that it becomes the basis of discussion between us and any candidate, and naturally we will visit Bkirki to hand it to Patriarch (Beshara) al-Rahi and we will re-propose that efforts under his auspices be exerted in order to close ranks,” Bassil said. “We propose national dialogue over the presidential election, which a number of leaders topped by the president can do. We have started receiving invitations to (hold dialogue) abroad, whereas it is better to hold a domestic dialogue,” the FPM chief added. Lamenting that there are “discouraging signs” in the presidential file, Bassil slammed Berri for choosing the date of October 13 for the next presidential elections session. “This indicates non-seriousness and carries disregard for people’s sentiments and the martyrs,” Bassil added. The FPM will on October 13 mark the 32nd anniversary of the 1990 ouster of President Michel Aoun from the Baabda Palace following a deadly Syrian-led offensive. Asked about Israel’s rejection of Lebanon’s latest remarks over sea border demarcation, Bassil said: “We must wait a bit regarding rejection and acceptance, seeing as it is not easy for anyone to bear the alternative to agreement, because the alternative to agreement is war.”“The agreement is fair for Lebanon and the proposed amendments do not harm the core of the agreement. We believe that the achievement has been made and it is difficult to accept the alternative, which is war,” Bassil added.

ARAB ART FAIR is coming back!
Naharnet/October 07/2022
ARAB ART FAIR, the First Affordable Art Fair in the region, has announced its dates for 2022. The fair will return from November 2nd to 6th, 2022 in the Yacht Club Beirut, Zaitunay Bay.
ARAB ART FAIR offers an opportunity for Art galleries and independent Artists in the region to showcase their artworks to thousands of enthusiastic art lovers.
It’s a one-year opportunity for All Art galleries and independent Artists to join this unforgettable opportunity, to meet face-to-face with other artists, collectors, journalists, scholars, and culture enthusiasts.
Join Arab Art Fair 2022 -- Be part of this unforgettable experience – Send your documents to: AAF@educity.me
- Documents should include:
Three images showcasing the best works of the artist(s).
A biography of the artist(s).
A list of all fair participations in the past 3 years.
Deadline for Application is on October 18, 2022.

Lebanon inspecting new suspected cases of cholera
Associated Press/October 07/2022
Lebanon's health minister said on Friday that authorities are inspecting suspected cases of cholera, less than a day after the cash-strapped country confirmed its first case of the illness since 1993. The news came almost a month after an outbreak of the illness in neighboring war-torn Syria. Firas Abiad, Lebanon's caretaker health minister, said in a press conference that the first case was a middle-aged Syrian refugee man living in the impoverished northern province of Akkar, and confirmed a second case in the area."There are several other suspected cases," Abiad said. "Cholera is an illness that is easily transmissible." The developments take place as Lebanon's economy continues to spiral, plunging three-quarters of its population into poverty. Rampant power cuts, water shortages, and skyrocketing inflation have deteriorated living conditions for millions. The Lebanese health minister added that the authorities have been working with the United Nations Children's Fund and World Health Organization for weeks to ensure the cash-strapped country can respond to a possible outbreak, and expand testing capacities at hospitals and labs. "We're making sure that there is safe water and a good sewage system," Abiad said. According to the WHO, a cholera infection is caused by consuming food or water infected with the Vibrio cholerae bacteria, and while most cases are mild to moderate, not treating the illness could lead to death. About 1 million Syrian refugees who fled their country's civil war reside in neighboring Lebanon. Most live in extreme poverty in tented settlements or in overcrowded apartments. Poverty has also deepened for many Lebanese, with many families often rationing water, unable to afford private water tanks for drinking and domestic use. The health minister said Lebanon has secured the necessary equipment and medicines to treat patients. Richard Brennan, Regional Emergency Director of the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region told The Associated Press Thursday that the organization has also been coordinating with other countries neighboring Syria to help respond to a possible outbreak.
However, he said vaccines are in short supply due to global demand. The U.N. and Syria's Health Ministry have said the source of the outbreak is likely linked to people drinking unsafe water from the Euphrates River and using contaminated water to irrigate crops, resulting in food contamination. Syria's health services have suffered heavily from its years-long war, while much of the country is short on supplies to sanitize water. Syrian health officials as of Wednesday documented at least 594 cases of cholera and 39 deaths. Meanwhile, in the rebel-held northwest of the country, health authorities documented 605 suspected cases, dozens of confirmed cases, and at least one death.

Ziad Hayek to Naharnet: My presidential chances have surged
Naharnet/October 07/2022
Naharnet has interviewed presidential hopeful and Lebanon’s former candidate for World Bank chief Ziad Hayek about his presidential chances and plans.
Hayek, 63, was Secretary General of Lebanon's High Council for Privatization and PPP from 2006 until he was nominated to be President of the World Bank in February 2019. Hayek is currently Vice Chair of the Bureau of the U.N. Economic Commission for Europe Working Party on PPP, Head of the International Center of Excellence in PPP for Ports, President of the World Association of PPP Units & Professionals, Member of the Board of Trustees of the Holy Spirit University of Kaslik, Member of the Investment Committee of World YMCA, and High Commissioner for Lebanon at the World Business Angels Investment Forum.
A citizen of the U.S., the UK and Lebanon, Hayek speaks 11 languages. He is fluent in Arabic, English, French, Spanish and Portuguese and familiar with Italian, Persian, German, Russian, Hebrew and Aramaic. He has been a resident of Lebanon, Mexico, the U.S., Bahrain, Gabon and the UK. In 2014, he was made Officer of the National Order of the Cedar, the highest state order of Lebanon.
Below is the English-language interview that Naharnet has conducted with Hayek:
Q: You have said that you intend to resolve Lebanon’s crisis rather than manage it. Do you think that the president’s current powers give you the ability to do that?
A: Under our Constitution, the Presidency may not have direct decision-making powers to affect policy directly, but it does confer on its incumbent wide leeway in shaping the general direction of policies, whether through the choice of Cabinet members or through active participation in the meetings of the Council of Ministers.
Q: Which political parties have said that they might endorse your nomination?
A: I may not be the first choice for President of any political party, but I am very well positioned as an alternative option for all of them. This is my biggest advantage over other candidates.
Q: Do you consider yourself a “change” president and have you communicated with the 13-member “change” bloc?
A: I certainly do consider myself a change candidate and was one of the leaders of what used to be called the “civil society”. I have communicated with most of the “change” bloc members, but they have not yet managed to agree on a viable candidate for the bloc.
Q: How high are your chances to reach the Baabda Palace? Please give a specific percentage.
A: I used to say that my chances were less than 10% because there were many rumored candidates. Today, I believe that the field of candidates who have proven themselves to be credible and viable has narrowed down to less than four candidates.
Q: Would you resign as president if the political forces start obstructing your plans?
A: Under our constitution, the President does not have “a plan”. The President’s role is to shepherd the country’s political factions and help them achieve what plans they have, which lead to the country’s national interest.
Q: Do you think President Aoun should have resigned in the wake of the October 17 uprising or the Beirut port explosion?
A: I do not believe that he should have resigned in the wake of the October 17 uprising because that was an event he was not directly responsible for. The case of the Beirut Port explosion is different. If he had been informed about the danger of storing the ammonium nitrate at the port and about the urgency of dealing with the situation, yet he took no action, then he is considered directly responsible and should resign.
Q: What is one thing that President Aoun could have done during his term but didn’t?
A: He could have acted presidential but chose to act factional.
Q: Who was the most successful president in Lebanon’s history?
A: Fouad Chehab is generally believed to have been the most successful president, but I am biased toward Camille Chamoun.
Q: If elected president, would you prefer your first government to be technocrat, political or techno-political?
A: Techno-political.
Q: Who is your political/economic idol(s) at the international level?
A: Angela Merkel, on both counts.
Q: You have suggested that there should be a lengthy and daily dialogue with Hezbollah in order to resolve the controversy over its weapons. Have you thought of a specific mechanism for achieving that and do you intend to form a permanent dialogue committee in this regard?
A: I believe I referred to “regular”, not “daily”, but yes, it should be serious and continuous until the controversy is resolved. The mechanism I envisage includes at least three specialized committees to negotiate and deal with political issues, security issues, and military issues.
Q: Are you in favor of privatizing all state-owned enterprises?
A: Yes, but not in their current state – only after they have been properly reorganized and made profitable. This would likely be years from now. In the meantime, regulatory authorities should be created, with the objective of liberalizing the relevant markets and preventing both private and public monopolies.
Q: Do you have concerns that the people and the change and opposition forces might consider you part of the corrupt system in light of your previous work in state administrations, at the Grand Serail and with four ex-PMs?
A: I am sure that some shallow minds might stop at such a stereotypical description, but I am hoping that more intelligent ones would dig deeper and prevail.
Q: Do you support a full normalization of ties with Syria or do you want to merely improve economic and logistical cooperation?
A: I support any level of normalization and/or cooperation as Lebanon’s national interest may require.
Q: Do you think Lebanon should be the last Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel?
A: No, I don’t. We should regain our national dignity and make our own decisions, as and when we wish to make them.
Q: Will you immediately call on expats to return and invest in Lebanon?
A: No, we would need to regain the trust of investors (including expats) before we call on them to return.
Q: In your opinion, what is the best electoral law?
A: One man/woman, one vote; with one MP per district; in a smaller Parliament of likely 66 MPs.
Q: Are you in favor of an immediate abolishment of political sectarianism?
A: Yes, in Parliament, in tandem with the creation of a Senate. No, at the level of ministers and director generals.
Q: What would be the priorities of the Social Solidarity Fund that you intend to establish and would it include free or affordable healthcare? A: The priority of the Social Solidarity Fund is to provide support to the poorer members of society thru targeted subsidies. Healthcare should be free but should be administered by the Ministry of Health and not by the Social Solidarity Fund.

دراسة قيمة لإيمانويل أوتولينغي المتخصص بالإرهاب ومافيات تهريب المخدرات، نشرها موقع المعهد الدولي لمكافحة الإرهاب تتناول بالعمق، تزاوج وتناغم حزب الله وحركة أمل في كل ما هو تهريب وأعمال خارجة عن القانون في العديد من بلاد العالم
A Match Made in Heaven: The Hezbollah-Amal Nexus
Emanuele Ottolenghi/International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT)
October 2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/112563/emanuele-ottolenghi-ict-a-match-made-in-heaven-the-hezbollah-amal-nexus-%d8%af%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%a9-%d9%82%d9%8a%d9%85%d8%a9-%d9%84%d8%a5%d9%8a%d9%85%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%88%d9%8a%d9%84-%d8%a3%d9%88/
https://ict.org.il/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Ottolenghi-Match-Made-in-Heaven_2022_10_06_0801.pdf
Introduction
Over the past decades, Hezbollah has built a well-oiled, multi-billion-dollar illicit finance and drugtrafficking machine in Latin America that launders organized crime’s ill-gotten gains through multiple waypoints in the Western Hemisphere, West Africa, Europe, and the Middle East, generating hundreds of millions of annual revenues. Those in charge, back in Beirut, Baghdad, and Tehran, are party stalwarts, who rake the profits to fund Hezbollah’s stranglehold on Lebanese society, sustain its mobilization as Iran’s regional proxy in multiple theatres of war, and plot terror attacks overseas. Their lieutenants, however, are a different story: party lines are blurred in the murky waters of illicit finance.
There, in the vast universe of trafficking, money laundering, and smuggling, the entrepreneurrises above the ideologue, the militant, and the militia fighter to take the front seat. Party membership matters little, where money is made for the cause. As my colleague, Tony Badran argues, “What matters is Hezbollah’s relationship with Shi’a society, both in Lebanon and in the diaspora, where familial ties, business connections, and patronage networks extend to Amal, the other Shi’a party in Lebanon.” In the realm of fundraising, Amal and Hezbollah followers have over time become so intertwined that telling them apart has become almost impossible. Especially across the Shi’a diaspora, it is often Amal businessmen who tend to Hezbollah’s fundraising needs.
Acknowledging this overlap, rather than proving a formal bond to Hezbollah’s party structure, is key to unmasking the terror-finance networks feeding into Hezbollah’s global fundraising efforts. Amal too, should be a target for U.S. sanctions. Without its members and their support, Hezbollah’s overseas illicit finance operations might not come to fruition so easily.
Amal
The Other Shi’a Party Before there was Hezbollah, Amal ruled the Shi’a of Lebanon. Musa Sadr, an Iranian-born, charismatic, Lebanese cleric educated in Iran and Iraq, established Amal in 1975. He envisioned it as an armed wing of a larger political project, the Movement of the Deprived, which Sadr created to politically organize, represent, and later defend, the Shi’a of Lebanon. Both Hezbollah and Amal, therefore, are politicalmilitary-religious movements created to represent Lebanon’s Shi’a, with similar goals: represent the‘ deprived’ (Amal) or the ‘oppressed’ (Hezbollah).
Unlike Hezbollah’s clerical leaders, who pledged allegiance to Iran’s Islamic revolution and its theological tenets, Sadr rejected the principle of Velayat-eFaqih, or guardianship of the jurist, the essence of the Islamic revolution according to its founder, the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. As practiced by the Islamic Republic of Iran, Velayat e-Faqih requires a learned Islamic jurijurist to guide the body politic, ensuring its actions conform with Islam’s and God’s will. The revolution and its followers, Hezbollah included, are bound by this hierarchical principle.
Amal, by contrast, never embraced it, even after its founder and charismatic leader Musa Sadr mysteriously disappeared during a trip to Libya in 1978, possibly murdered by his host, Libya’s late dictator Muamar Qadhafi, at the behest of Ayatollah Khomeini’s lieutenants.
Despite their doctrinal divergence, Hezbollah emerged from the same social, political, religious awakening of the Shi’a community Sadr helped mobilize. Hezbollah capitalized on that awakening but offered Lebanon’s Shi’a an even more militant ideological framework that enjoyed the backing of a nation-state—Iran—and its significant resources. Many of Hezbollah’s followers are former Amal party members. Hezbollah became Amal’s competitor, and the two parties jockeyed for leadership of the same community while emphasizing similar grievances of dispossession and injustice on behalf of their constituents. At times, disputes, and disagreements between these two Shi’a factions resembled the ideological squabbles between Stalinists and Troskyites within the Soviet revolution. But mostly, Khomeini and his followers resented Sadr’s rising popularity as a potential competitor to Khomeini, along with Sadr’s refusal to recognize Khomeini as the highest Shi’a clerical authority and to embrace his religious doctrine. This, then, was not a split between secular and religious Shi’a: their political pieties do not diverge significantly. At times, the Amal/Hezbollah duopoly over Lebanon’s Shi’a cut across the community, often pitting family members and neighbors against one another. But it also overlapped enough that people frequently crossed party lines and allegiances.
Hezbollah’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah himself was, early on, a member of Amal and a student of Sadr’s followers in Iraq. He later rose through the ranks of Amal, becoming a regional leader, before joining Hezbollah. One of his brothers, Hussein, also an Amal member, never left.
Throughout the early period of Shi’a political mobilization, family, sect, and party loyalties intersected. And the Amal/Hezbollah rivalry, which erupted in open war during the 1988-1990 period, eventually subsided, under an Iranian Syrian brokered peace agreement first and, subsequently, under a division of labor where Amal and Hezbollah increasingly became two sides of the same coin. Politics ultimately could not break families apart, and, as the two rivals turned into allies, the intricate and intimate links crisscrossing kinship and party allegiance blended the two together.
As Lebanese journalist, Wassim Mroue argues, “An implicit division of labor crystalized shortly after the agreement whereby Hezbollah took charge of armed resistance against the Israeli occupation of the south while Amal occupied public sector posts and government positions allocated for the Shi’a community.”
Amal’s leaders, dressed in suits and ties and holding Western-sounding institutional titles, appear as the face of the state, which Western leaders think can be turned into a bulwark against Hezbollah, if only its institutions are strengthened.
In fact, Amal and Hezbollah are in a symbiotic relationship, especially when it comes to business, and the presence of men in suits in the seats of institutional power only serves the purpose of letting Hezbollah in through the back door.
The Match
Hassan Mansour Canadian Lebanese businessman, Hassan Mohsen Mansour illustrates the Amal-Hezbollah symbiosis. On May 15, 2015, two U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) agents, codenamed “Amber” and “Alex”met Mansour at a Marriott Hotel located on the prestigious Boulevard des Champs Élysées in Paris, France. Mansour thought he was meeting drug money couriers. The undercovers were there to gather intelligence on an elaborate, Hezbollah-run drug trafficking, money laundering operation, they were investigating.
French court records show that during their meeting, Mansour explained how he moved cocaine and laundered money: he had “a wood charcoal import business from Colombia to Lebanon” and
“the required connections in country to ensure the containers would not be searched.”
Eventually, French authorities arrested Mansour during a January 2016 sweep, nicknamed Operation Cedar – a DEA joint operation with European law enforcement agencies across seven countries that targeted a large Hezbollah criminal network. (Mansour later escaped.)
U.S. authorities also sanctioned the network’s Hezbollah ringleaders. Cedar was the culmination of a decade-long string of DEA-led law enforcement actions that exposed Hezbollah’s global criminal enterprise. The picture that emerged was of a worldwide criminal cartel composed of hundreds of business members of the Shi’a Lebanese diaspora. Mansour, DEA claims, was one of them.
Shortly after his arrest in France, in February 2016, a Florida court indicted Mansour, alongside two others, for drug trafficking and money laundering. The affidavit supporting their arrest warrant described him as “a Hezbollah associate, known to be involved in multi-faceted criminal activity, not simply money laundering and drug trafficking,” adding that Mansour was “working directly with established members of Hezbollah.”
What is a “Hezbollah associate”?
How different is an associate from “an established member”?
Hezbollah is neither a corporation nor a university, with tenured partners, adjuncts, and associates. It is a terror group ruled by a clerical nomenklatura loyal to Iran, a revolutionary theocratic regime. To be sure, it is a tight ship, with a rigid hierarchical structure, salaried members, contractors, and assets.
The affidavit, however, is using the label of “associate” to evoke a more informal relationship, its exact contours illdefined. That is precisely what characterizes the organic nature of the relationship between Hezbollah and those who run its illicit finance networks. Though contracts and benefits exist between the networks and the terror group, their bonds are not necessarily or always based on formal hierarchy and established procedures such as membership fees.
Mansour’s personal circumstances illustrate the informal and elusive nature of these bonds. Though allegedly involved in “multi-faceted criminal activity” and “working directly with established members of Hezbollah,” Lebanese voters’ records show that he is married to Zeinab Assaad Fawaz – daughter of Silan Nabih Berri and granddaughter of Nabih Berri, the speaker of Lebanon’s Parliament and the historic leader of Amal, the Shi’a party that pre-existed Hezbollah’s establishment shortly after Iran’s Islamic revolution.
Silan, one of Berri’s daughters from his first marriage, is married to Assaad Abdul Hamid Fawaz from Tibnine, Nabih Berri’s village of origin (Berri himself was born in Sierra Leone in West Africa to Lebanese expatriates).
This is the highest entry point into Amal’s political patronage, not Hezbollah’s. As Aurora Ortega recently wrote, “While often described as a Hezbollah associate, Mansour himself is likely an Amal member, based on his marriage.” Marriage is an important factor in establishing links to extended families/clan structures and their patronage networks. Given his alleged degree of involvement with Hezbollah’s terror funding, Mansour’s nuptials show how intertwined the two Shi’a Lebanese groups are.
Love is important, but so is business
Mansour’s bond of affection to the Berri family extends to a handful of Lebanese-registered business ventures. Corporate data from Lebanon’s company registry show that Zeinab and her parents hold a stake in two companies, Zoom Zoom Motors S.A.R.L. (where Zeinab and her father each hold a 33% stake) and Zoom Zoom Car Rentals S.A.R.L. (where Zeinab and her mother each hold a 33% stake), alongside Mansour, who owns the remaining 34% in each entity.
To recap:
Mansour is an alleged high-profile Hezbollah “associate” who, according to both French and U.S. court records, is deeply enmeshed in criminal activities. He is also allegedly “working directly” with senior Hezbollah members to funnel illicit funds to the terror group. He is married to the heiress of the Amal Party dynasty and is their business partner.
Is he Amal then? Or Hezbollah?
It is, perhaps, the wrong question to ask. And to understand why, we need to turn to Hezbollah’s Business Affairs Component, or BAC, a term the DEA introduced, during its decade-long journey of investigating, mapping, disrupting, and prosecuting Hezbollah drug trafficking networks, to describe those in the Shi’a Lebanese diaspora who facilitate Hezbollah’s illicit fundraising efforts. The Business Affairs Component Part of the problem U.S. agencies face when it comes to investigating, prosecuting, or sanctioning Hezbollah individuals or entities on terrorism or terror finance grounds is the U.S. legal framework.
A terrorist designation needs to show that the sanctioned or indicted individual is a Hezbollah member or, failing that, someone providing material support to Hezbollah. What U.S. authorities seem to have missed is that, in the realm of terror finance, they need to look beyond Hezbollah and recognize that the networks supporting what it calls “the Resistance” are first and foremost Shi’a. And that in that world of tightly knit expatriate communities, Amal and Hezbollah are intimately intertwined. Perhaps they should consider sanctioning Amal as well, making it easier for themselves when confronted with suspects like Mansour.
After all, in the decade-long investigation that DEA conducted against drug trafficking and money laundering networks whose revenues went to fund Hezbollah, DEA realized that the facilitators were not just run-of-the-mill white-collar criminals for hire, but had some closer, more intimate ties to the mothership.
The DEA also understood that this was by design:
Hezbollah leaders relied on members of the Shi’a Lebanese diaspora to establish illicit finance networks for funding purposes. In the process of doing so, a loose structure emerged, which DEA called the Business Affairs Component (BAC) of Hezbollah’s External Security Organization (ESO). Shortly after law enforcement agencies successfully rounded up all the suspects in Operation Cedar, DEA issued a press release, on February 1, 2016, where it revealed the existence of the BAC.
According to DEA, the BAC founder was the late Imad Mughniyeh, Hezbollah’s arch-terrorist and the mastermind of Hezbollah’s deadliest terror attacks, including the 1983 bombing of the U.S. Marines barracks and French paratroopersin Beirut, the 1992 bombing of Israel’s embassy and the 1994 bombing of the AMIA building, the Jewish cultural center, both in Buenos Aires.
Mughniyeh died in a car bomb in Damascus in 2008 and Abdallah Safieddine – Hezbollah’s ambassador to Tehran – and Adham Tabaja, a Hezbollah member acting as a sort of CEO for the BAC, took over its leadership.
DEA did not dwell upon the BAC’s command structure, membership recruitment, the way it functions, or much else, except that it was “involved in international criminal activities such as drug trafficking and drug proceed money laundering.”
Hezbollah is a hierarchy of councils, units, branches, departments, and bureaus. The ESO itself is under the Jihad Council of Hezbollah and it is highly compartmentalized. The BAC, by contrast, is less a department and more like a joint venture of freelancers, opportunists, and ideologues.
Soon after the February 2016 press release, the DEA-authored affidavit in support of Mansour’s arrest warrant further elaborated on the nature of the BAC. “To meet its financial needs,” it explains, “Hezbollah maintains a wide network of non-member supporters or associates engaged in raising capital.” Supporters and associates, then, are not members. The near-mythical Mughniyeh may have founded the BAC, but those involved, the affidavit suggests, do not belong to the party.
So, who are they? DEA describes them as “culturally aligned compatriots” who are “more concerned with generating cash than religious or political doctrine” and who “readily remit portions of their profits back” to Hezbollah. What DEA should recognize is that, almost invariably, these businessmen have organic links to Amal and sympathize with Hezbollah’s cause.
As Nasrallah himself said of one of his brothers, “Muhammad is basically not interested in politics; even though he is not a member of Hizballah, he approves of it.” Muhammad, as it happens, has left Amal. But plenty others in the Lebanese diaspora feel the same way about Hezbollah while remaining within the orbit of Amal’s political patronage.
The DEA-drafted affidavit seems to suggest that “culturally aligned compatriots” are motivated by profit rather than ideology. Why remit to Hezbollah, then? And if Hezbollah recruits people more motivated by profit than political doctrine, then why focus on compatriots alone? Unscrupulous people looking to make a fortune by cutting moral corners are equally distributed among all national groups inhabiting our planet. There is no shortage of crooks. Why would party ideologues like Mughniyeh, Safieddine, and Tabaja, insist on compatriots alone then? It certainly helps if the moral compass of those engaged in criminal activities is elastic. But people can commit crimes both for profit and for God and Country. They are not mutually exclusive. What the notion of “culturally aligned compatriots” seems to miss is what drives these relationships:
kinship.
Culturally aligned compatriots matter because their ties of blood, faith, village of origin, marriage, and clan all cement confidence in what is risky business, regardless of what motivates them. Those, like Mansour, whom DEA implicated in multiple trafficking and money laundering cases were not always clad in Hezbollah uniforms, wrapped in Hezbollah flags, and carrying a Hezbollah party membership card in their wallet. The U.S. government, not just DEA, frequently classifies them as “financiers,” “enablers,” “facilitators,” and “donors” – all near-synonyms for what DEA calls the BAC.
Yet these labels sometimes betray a misunderstanding of how these relationships work. To be sure, these categories are not official Hezbollah designations. Financiers, enablers, facilitators, and donors need not be, strictly speaking, members. They need not be wholly wedded to the cause (but they surely cannot be opposed to it either). They help and profit from it, and their involvement in this enterprise has to do with personal ties.
Take Mansour. His “level of participation in BAC affairs is significant” according to the affidavit. Yet, his marriage suggests he is Amal – spouse of a party heiress, no less.
Ascribing involvement with Hezbollah to profit alone overlooks the deep bonds of affection that rule over these uniquely tight-knit, insular communities, where family, clan, village, and faith indissolubly tied them together long before there ever were Shi’a political parties to rule over them. Trust built on ties of blood,
faith and heritage is what makes “culturally aligned compatriots” likelier to support the cause, with profit a strong incentive.
Hezbollah does not expect total adherence to its doctrinal worldview from those who help its fundraising efforts. Hezbollah’s leadership fully embrace the principle of Velayat-e-Faqih. Iran’s Supreme Leader is their leader. That may not appeal to everyone. Many, however, identify with their cause – the Resistance.
Hezbollah, like its paymaster, Iran, claims to fight for the oppressed of the earth, which the Shi’a narrative of Imam Hussein and his martyrdom epitomizes. The Shi’a of Lebanon are oppressed. The Resistance fights for their pride and rights. The Palestinians are oppressed. The Resistance fights for Palestine. The oppressors are Israel, the Jews, the West, and America, first and foremost. The Resistance fights Israel, the Jews, the West, and America. Helping the Resistance, and making money along the way, is not something requiring a high degree of ideological purity, but neither a total indifference to it.
Charcoal, Charcoal on the Wall
Consider the case of Nasser Abbas Bahmad, a suspected high-placed Hezbollah operative who, a few months after Mansour was arrested and his wood-charcoal-cover for cocaine shipment blown, came to what is known as the Tri-Border Area (TBA), where the frontiers of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay meet.
Bahmad’s apparent mission: Establish a supply line of multi-ton shipments of cocaine from Latin America to overseas markets to generate funds for Hezbollah. The parallels between Mansour’s disrupted operation shipping cocaine disguised as charcoal from Colombia to Lebanon and Bahmad’s attempt to
establish a similar supply chain from Paraguay are revealing. Shortly after his arrival in the TBA, Bahmad created a company named GTG Global Trading Group S.A., a subsidiary of a namesake company he established in early 2016 in Sydney, Australia.
Bahmad’s Paraguayan business partner in GTG was Ali Fawaz, a young Lebanese-Paraguayan dual national from Tibnine, the village of origin of Silan Berri’s father and of her husband Mansour’s father-in-law, Assad Fawaz. His last name is the same – they are likely related. According to French court records, Mansour relied on the complicity of corrupt port officials to smuggle his product out of Colombia and into Lebanon. That may have been a key reason Bahmad partnered with Fawaz.
According to Agustin Ceruse, an Argentinian intelligence analyst, Ali Fawaz’s Paraguayan fatherin-law had connections in Terport, a small riverine private port that Bahmad intended to use for its shipments – and where in October 2020 Paraguayan police found more than three tons of cocaine hidden in charcoal. There’s more. Lebanese records list Hassan Mansour as a shareholder in a Beirut-based media company. Among his business partners: relatives of Nasser Bahmad.
In short: Bahmad, a Hezbollah operative, partners up with a young member of the Tibnine branch of the Fawaz clan, in the TBA. Fawaz has no established link to Hezbollah, being more likely from an Amal family. Bahmad’s relatives, meanwhile, are in business with Mansour, who is married to Amal royalty. These facts,
on their own, do not prove that Hezbollah had chosen Bahmad as its replacement for Mansour, but taken together they make it a plausible scenario, which adds another layer of complexity, given that, as one network is taken down and another one arises, it is hard to keep up with who’s Amal and who’s Hezbollah.
Two Sides of the Same Coin
Lebanese Shi’a businessmen who sought and found fortune abroad in some cases maintain familial ties with Hezbollah – through a sibling in the clerical hierarchy, an uncle in the Hezbollah-run Al Mahdi scouts or its namesake schools, a cousin in the ranks of Hezbollah’s military cohorts, a spouse who hails from a
Hezbollah family. Others are tied by family and patronage to Amal, the other Shi’a party in Lebanon, with which Hezbollah exercises a duopoly over representation of the Shia sect in the Lebanese system. Sometimes, links to both groups are found within the same clan or even family.
These are the indissoluble bonds that matter, not a membership card. It is hard for Western observers to tell who is, and who isn’t Hezbollah, in these intricate networks bound across the globe by marriage, blood, or village of origin. And it is beside the point. Dividing lines of party affiliation, in a world where family, marriage, patronage, village, and business make it all happen, are blurred. Calling these supporters “culturally aligned compatriots” may be a good description of these people’s involvement in illicit finance for the benefit of Hezbollah.
But it misses the point. They are part of the Amal network, often, and because of the multilayered symbiosis characterizing the Amal-Hezbollah political alliance, they support Hezbollah’s fundraising efforts. To ignore the Amal dimension of the BAC and its operations may serve the purpose of keeping the façade of respectability for Amal and its leader, the affable and avuncular speaker of parliament, the hollow symbol of Lebanon’s confessional democracy. But it is still a façade.
A recent Treasury action offers a perfect example of this. The department announced sanctions against two West Africa-based Lebanese businessmen, Ali Saade and Taher Ibrahim, on March 4, 2022. According
to Treasury, the two are prominent Lebanese businessmen “with direct connections to Hezbollah.”Treasury accused them of being conduits for money transfers for the benefit of Hezbollah and, in Saade’s case, of having used his political influence in Guinea (Saade, like Taher, holds the title of honorary consul)
to assist Hezbollah financier Kassim Tajideen.
To protest his innocence, Saade took to the press and acknowledged his connection to Tajideen, following Treasury’s announcement, confirming that he had liaised between Tajideen and the then-president of Guinea, Alpha Condé, in 2013, four years after the U.S. sanctioned Tajideen and identified him as a key Hezbollah financier (Tajideen was subsequently arrested in Morocco, extradited to the U.S. and convicted; Saade seemed to believe, mistakenly, that Tajideen had only been sanctioned in 2017).
By the sound of Treasury’s press release, both Taher and Saade fit the DEA’s BAC profile of “culturally aligned compatriots” generating revenue for Hezbollah. Yet their political affiliation, if any is to be found, is another story.
Publicly available data on Ali Saade, his businesses and his family members offer a composite picture common to many successful Lebanese Shi’a expatriates in West Africa. Religious devotion and business acumen; a vast network of family contacts spanning the globe; and political access both in the country of residence and Lebanon. That access includes Amal – social media postings from a family account show Saade and his two sons paid a friendly visit to Nabih Berri, in 2020 – something not uncommon for successful Lebanese Shi’a’s living abroad. The Saade men, both Ali and his sons, who help him run the family business, are thoroughly westernized and, outwardly at least, fit the Amal profile. Amal then? Or Hezbollah?
Conclusion
Prominent figures in the Shi’a Lebanese community whom DEA and the U.S. Department of Treasury have investigated or sanctioned over the years due to their alleged role in Hezbollah’s BAC, appear, like Mansour, to seamlessly move back and forth between the two supposedly distinct worlds of Amal and Hezbollah. To the outside observer, they may look different. Berri, in his tailored suits and ties, his U.S. green card, his institutional demeanor, is the secular leader of a movement whose youth drinks, smokes, and listens to Western music. Hassan Nasrallah, the firebrand cleric who vows fealty to Iran, galvanizes his followers to dream of martyrdom while living pious lives of Shi’a devotion. Yet, when all is said and done, they sit down and do business together. The two parties are political allies in Lebanon. Berri praises the Resistance as a cause Amal shares. And as the cause goes, so do the financial networks that sustain it. Amal and Hezbollah, when it comes to funding the Resistance, are one and the same.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 07-08/2022
Iranian coroner says Mahsa Amini did not die from blows to body
DUBAI (Reuters)/October 07/2022
- An Iranian coroner's report into the death of Mahsa Amini said she did not die due to blows to the head and limbs but from multiple organ failure caused by cerebral hypoxia, the official news agency IRNA reported on Friday. The death of 22-year-old Amini while in the custody of Iran's morality police has ignited more than two weeks of nationwide protests. Her father has said she suffered bruises to her legs, and has held the police responsible for her death. The coroner's report said her death was "not caused by blow to the head and limbs". It did not say whether she had suffered any injuries. The report did say she fell while in custody due to "underlying diseases". "Due to the ineffective cardio-respiratory resuscitation in the first critical minutes, she suffered severe hypoxia and as a result brain damage."

More than half Iran's Revolutionary Guard to be forever barred from Canada: Trudeau
The Canadian Press/Fri, October 7, 2022
OTTAWA — Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says the federal government is bringing in tough new immigration measures against the Iranian regime, which will mean more than 10,000 members of the country's Revolutionary Guard will be forever barred from entering Canada. Canada is pursuing a listing of the Iranian regime, including the leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, under the most powerful provision of federal immigration laws.Trudeau said this has been used against regimes that committed war crimes or genocide, such as in Bosnia and Rwanda, and will "raise the bar internationally in holding Iran accountable."Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland says Canada will also expand its sanctions and hold members of the Revolutionary Guard, which she called a "terrorist organization," to account. Canada does not list Iran's Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist entity. Trudeau also says the federal government will create a new sanctions bureau and allocate $76 million to bolster the ability of Global Affairs Canada and the RCMP to implement sanctions. This report from The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 7, 2022.

Anger in Paris over Iran ‘spy’ charges
Arab News/07 October 2022
JEDDAH: France on Thursday accused the regime in Iran of taking two of its citizens hostage after Tehran broadcast video footage of the couple making forced confessions to being spies. French schoolteachers’ union official Cecile Kohler and her partner Jacques Paris were arrested in May on charges of fomenting “insecurity” in Iran. France condemned the arrests and demanded their immediate release. In Thursday’s TV footage Kohler “confessed” to being an agent of the French external intelligence service, in Iran to “prepare the ground for the revolution and the overthrow of the regime of Islamic Iran.” Paris said: “Our goal at the French security service is to pressure the government of Iran.” The video sparked anger in France. “The staging of their alleged confessions is outrageous, appalling, unacceptable and contrary to international law,” foreign ministry spokeswoman Anne-Claire Legendre said. “This masquerade reveals the contempt for human dignity that characterizes the Iranian authorities. These alleged confessions extracted under duress have no basis, nor did the reasons given for their arbitrary arrest.”The French couple's appearance on TV coincides with weeks of anti-government protests in Iran over the death last month in morality police custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini. It also came a day after a debate in the French senate in which all political parties condemned Iran's crackdown on the protests. Rights groups say Iranian state media broadcast more than 350 forced confessions between 2010 and 2020. Four French citizens are in jail in Iran and France is assessing whether another one may have been arrested during the current protests. In a tweet on Oct. 5, the Human Rights Activists in Iran and 19 other human rights organizations asked US President Joe Biden in an open letter "to address the Iranian regime’s violent crackdown on the Mahsa Amini protests and Iran’s ongoing human rights crisis.""The Iranian people need the support of the United States and the entire international community to attain their rights and freedoms," the letter said.

US, UK hold drone drill in Arabian Gulf after Iran seizures
AP/October 08, 2022
DUBAI: The US Navy held a joint drone drill with the United Kingdom on Friday in the Arabian Gulf, testing the same unmanned surveillance ships that Iran twice has seized in recent months in the Middle East. The exercise comes as the US Navy separately told commercial shippers in the wider Mideast that it would continue using drones in the region and warned against interfering with their operations. The drone drill — and the American pledge to keep sailing them — also comes as tensions between the US and Iran on the seas remain high amid stalled negotiations over its tattered nuclear deal with world powers and as protests sweep the Islamic Republic. Friday’s drill involved two American and two British warships in the Arabian Gulf, as well as three Saildrone Explorers, said Cmdr. Timothy Hawkins, a spokesman for the Navy’s Mideast-based 5th Fleet. The drones searched for a target on the seas, then sent the still images its cameras captured back to both the warships and the 5th Fleet’s command center in the island kingdom of Bahrain. There, an artificial intelligence system worked through the photos. The 5th Fleet launched its unmanned Task Force 59 last year. Drones used by the Navy include ultra-endurance aerial surveillance drones, surface ships like the Sea Hawk and the Sea Hunter and smaller underwater drones that resemble torpedoes. But of particular interest for the Navy has been the Saildrone Explorer, a commercially available drone that can stay at sea for long periods of time. That’s crucial for a region that has some 8,000 kilometers (5,000 miles) of coastline from the Suez Canal, down the Red Sea to the Gulf of Oman, the Strait of Hormuz and into the Arabian Gulf. It’s a vast territory that stretches the reach of the Navy and its allies and has seen a series of attacks amid the atomic accord’s collapse. It also remains crucial to global shipping and energy supplies, as a fifth of all oil traded passes through the Strait of Hormuz. “No matter what forces you have, you can’t cover all that,” Hawkins told The Associated Press. “You have to do that in a partnered way and an innovative way.”
But Iran, which long has equated America’s presence in the region to it patrolling the Gulf of Mexico, views the drones with suspicion. In August and September, Iranian regular and paramilitary forces seized Saildrones in both the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea, alleging without providing evidence that the drones posed a danger to nearby ships. Iran ultimately released the drones after the US Navy arrived to the sites. Cameras on the Saildrones involved in the Red Sea incident went missing. Iranian state-run media did not acknowledge the drill Friday. Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment. “Recent events notwithstanding, we have been operating these systems safely, responsibly and in accordance with international law and will continue to do so,” Hawkins said. The Navy underscored its plan to keep operating the drones in notices sent to shippers and sailors in the region beginning Thursday. It said that the drones would continue to broadcast their location via their Automatic Identification System trackers. Ships are supposed to keep their AIS trackers on, but Iranian vessels routinely turn theirs off to mask their movements as Tehran faces international sanctions over its nuclear program and human rights abuses.“US Navy (drones) are US government property and will lawfully operate in international waters and through straits in accordance with internationally recognized rights and freedoms,” the Navy said in the notice. “Any interference with US Navy (drones) will be considered a violation of the norms of international maritime law.”

Ukraine war: Under the threat of a nuclear strike and a long looming winter, indomitable Ukrainian spirit holds
Sky News/October 07/2022
There are a quite shocking number of Russian corpses left in the wake of the Ukrainian blitz on their eastern front.
Kyiv's troops are moving so fast and methodically, there's no time to collect the enemy's dead. It's a grim illustration of Ukraine's current battlefield successes. As we followed their route through the village of Yampil and on to Torske on the edge of the Luhansk border, we saw scores of burnt military vehicles and scorched forest trees, which highlighted the ferocity of the battle. There are repeated signs the Ukrainians have ambushed their enemy, often it seems, laying in wait for them and attacking them from the front as the Russians try to flee to their defensive positions deeper into the Donbas. The Ukrainians have the city of Kremina in their crosshairs now. Seizing it will open the gateway for them into Luhansk and the entire region, and leave them poised to reclaim the twin cities of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. The road from Torske to Kremina is scarred with bombed vehicle wrecks. We saw Ukrainian soldiers loaded with ammunition and kitbags heading off down the road into Luhansk to do more battle. "Everything will be Ukraine," one of them shouted after us with a cheery reassurance. "Hear that?" another called, motioning above us. All latest Ukraine news live: Effigy of Putin burned near Moscow; will Russian capital cancel Christmas? There's a constant backdrop of shelling, of the firing of Grad rockets, and at one stage we hear a jet in the air followed by the terrifying thunder of bombs raining down in the direction of Kremina. "They will drop more here soon," he cautions. The pockmarked yellow bus we are nearby has the body of a Russian soldier hanging out of the driver's seat. The bus door is open, and his arms are dangling down above the road, as if he'd desperately tried to climb out before death claimed him. His hands are black with ingrained dirt. His head is gouged open. Death and war are tragically ugly yet simultaneously pitiful.
His relatives in Russia have likely no idea of his fate or how he met his end on this mangled, broken bus at the end of a road pitted with vehicle carcasses. The stretch of roadway next to the bus is covered in a blanket of Russian uniforms and other discarded clothing and belongings. It's a chaotic, muddled mayhem reeking of panic and fear.
Digging a grave
A short distance away, a woman called Anna, who's wearing a colourful woollen headscarf, tells us of the ferocious fighting outside the farmhouse where she lives with her husband. She's only just retired from farming and probably looked forward to some relaxing time after a lifetime of hard graft. Instead, she tells us how a Russian soldier had run into her yard days earlier, trying to hide from the onslaught. He was wearing civilian clothes but had a weapon and green army body armour. When he's gunned down, she can't bear to leave his corpse on her yard for the birds and rats to eat.
She can't stop crying, recounting what happened. It's still very fresh and raw for her. She and her husband drag the body to the field at the back of their home and dig a grave, on top of which they place the green flak jacket. The documents they find on him show he's 30 years old and from Moscow.
Explainers:
What happened during the Cuban missile crisis - and why is it being compared to Russia's war in Ukraine? What nuclear weapons does Russia have, what damage could they cause, and could they reach the UK? "He was the first military person I'd ever seen dead," she tells us between sobs. "I felt nothing, nothing. He came to kill us." But her voice trails off as she's enveloped by weeping. The trauma of this war has not yet stripped Anna of her basic humanity. He's around the same age as her own son. Another young man dying in a war he never chose to fight in. The shells keep landing close and make her constantly flinch. "It's so scary. It's so, so, scary," she says. "When the houses are on fire, it's terrifying.
In the midst of horror
"This house was burning just here." She nods towards her neighbour's home. We ask if she'd prefer to go to her shelter to hide for a bit and feel safer. "Can I go? Is that OK?" Even enduring all this death and torment, she's unfailingly polite to strangers. She hugs our Ukrainian colleague Artem, who's around the same age as the dead Russian soldier. He's a warm, friendly face to her in the midst of this horror. And yet all the political talk is of worse to come - an impending tactical nuclear attack. It's a threat US President Joe Biden appears to be taking seriously, and which the Ukrainian troops we spoke to seem unnervingly prepared for. "We are not afraid of anything any more," a soldier calling himself Lynx tells us. "We know what we're fighting for - we're fighting for our land. "We're not afraid of nuclear or chemical weapons. We've started, and we won't stop until we liberate all our land."
'Mentally, I'm ready to die'
The rest of his unit sitting atop their armoured personnel carrier are equally undeterred by the nuclear threat. "Mentally I'm ready to die," Oleksander says, "so if it (a nuclear attack) happens, then it will happen."When you're prepared to give your life in a war, the manner of that dying takes on a very different significance, it seems. We travel with the crew across an increasingly boggy forest with pools of muddy water dotted everywhere. The seasons are rapidly changing, and the incoming inclement weather is what the Ukrainians are trying to get ahead of.
Only military vehicles can easily traverse terrain so taxing, and the deteriorating conditions will challenge even these. The Ukrainians are in a race against winter as well as a ferocious battle with Russian troops - and they cannot afford to lose either.

Putin will escalate the war anyway, so start Ukraine's NATO negotiations now, Lithuanian PM tells Insider
Sinéad Baker/Business Insider/Fri, October 7, 2022.
Putin faces the "most precarious moment" of his time in power, Angela Stent told Insider.
Stent, a top Russia expert, said Putin's grip on power has slipped because of Russia's mounting failures in Ukraine.
The Russian army appears "incompetent," Stent said, and the situation "looks bad" for Putin.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has ruled over his country with an iron fist for more than two decades, brutally cracking down on dissent while cementing his control over the levers of power in Russia. Those who've opposed the Russian leader have often landed behind bars or wound up dead. But Russia's mounting failures in Ukraine have presented novel challenges to Putin's authority.
Angela Stent, a top Russia expert who served in the Office of Policy Planning at the State Department from 1999 to 2001 and as a national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council from 2004 to 2006, told Insider that "his grip on power is clearly not as strong as it was on February 23," the day before Putin launched Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.
The war hasn't gone Putin's way. The Pentagon said in August that Russian casualties could be as high as 80,000, and that number has likely risen in recent months. In an effort to address Russia's manpower problems, Putin recently announced a partial military mobilization, as well as various stop-loss measures, but things are not going well. There's been local resistance to the draft, and tens of thousands of Russians have fled the country.
Putin also announced the annexation of four Ukrainian regions last week, despite the fact that Russia does not fully control or occupy these regions. In the time since, Ukrainian forces have recaptured territory in these areas. Recent reporting suggests that even members of Putin's inner circle have begun to openly criticize the botched invasion, an action that can be dangerous and even deadly.
The Russian army appears "incompetent," Stent said, and the situation "looks bad" for Putin. "This is definitely the most precarious moment" in Putin's 22 years in power, she said, adding that what is happening is entirely "self-inflicted."
"He didn't have to go in and invade Ukraine in February, but obviously he made the decision that this was the right time to do it," Stent, now a Georgetown professor and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said.
Even though the war hasn't gone as planned for the Russian leader, that does not necessarily mean Putin's downfall is imminent. "He still projects the image of someone who's self-confident," Stent said, pointing to Putin's "fiery" speech on the annexations.
And there hasn't been a mass public uprising against Putin, showing how effective his efforts to quash dissent have been. Putin's most prominent critic, Alexey Navalny, is imprisoned on charges widely decried as politically motivated. Protesting the war could mean prison time for some Russians, and Putin signed a vague law criminalizing spreading so-called "fake news" about the military shortly after the invasion began.
"The problem is Putin has created the system with increasing repression," Stent said, "It's a huge disincentive to protest."
"There's no one single individual or even small group of individuals who would mobilize people," she added, "In Russia if you want to have change, it has to happen in Moscow and probably St. Petersburg, and you just haven't seen the willingness to galvanize people."
Stent also said that the recent decision by the OPEC+ alliance to significantly cut oil production at a time when Russia's war in Ukraine is causing an energy crisis seems to point to Putin's ongoing geopolitical influence. The Saudis and other members of the coalition are essentially "supporting Putin's war effort," Stent said. "Even though his situation doesn't look good, there a large number of countries all around the world that still support Russia."
But there are also signs that countries like India and China, which tend to side with Moscow on the global stage but haven't taken an overtly supportive stance with regard to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, are "wary" about what Putin is doing, Stent said.
Last month, Putin acknowledged that both countries have concerns about the war in Ukraine as he met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a summit in Uzbekistan. Modi criticized the conflict directly to Putin's face, stating, "Today's era is not an era of war, and I have spoken to you on the phone about this."Putin's repeated nuclear threats since the war began likely "mitigates" the possibility of such countries offering full-throated support for Russia's war in Ukraine, Stent said
With Russia struggling in Ukraine and Putin facing perhaps the worst predicament of his time in power, many leaders, officials, Russia watchers, and military experts in Ukraine and in the West have expressed concerns that the Russian leader might resort to the use of nuclear weapons. In late September, national security advisor Jake Sullivan said the US has privately communicated to Russia that there would be "catastrophic consequences" if nuclear weapons are used.
A number of analysts have suggested that Putin's nuclear threats are largely a bluff designed to intimidate the West and push it away from continuing support for Kyiv. The US has provided Ukraine with billions in security aid, including weapons that have played a key role on the battlefield. If this is Putin's goal, it's not working, Stent said, adding that "the nuclear threats are not helping Putin vis-à-vis the West."Putin's nuclear rhetoric should be taken "seriously," she said, but that there has been "exaggeration of the imminent threat."
"I don't think anybody thinks that the use of a tactical nuclear weapon is something that's going to happen soon," Stent said, emphasizing that Putin wants to wait and see if the mobilization works before taking escalatory steps beyond attacks on infrastructure such as power plants and dams.
But that doesn't mean Putin's nuclear threats can be entirely dismissed. "Putin said he wasn't bluffing, and some of our political leaders have said we have to have to take this seriously," Stent said. "That's why the administration is clearly communicating with the Kremlin — telling them that if they were to do something like that, there would be very serious consequences."

Russian oil exports fall to their lowest level in a year as Moscow leans more on Asian buyers ahead of price cap plans
Jennifer Sor/ Business Insider/, October 7, 2022
Russian seaborne oil exports fell to their lowest in a year in September, according to S&P Global.
Moscow has been leaning more on Asian customers ahead of Western price cap plans.
If implemented, the cap is estimated to leave Russia with an extra 2.5 million barrels a day of oil to offload.
Russian seaborne oil exports have fallen to their lowest level in a year, a sign that Moscow may be struggling as it leans more on Asian buyers ahead of price cap plans. Exports of Russian crude slumped to an average 2.99 million barrels a day in September, according to data from S&P Global. That's a 290,000 barrels a day fewer than what was shipped in August, and the lowest amount of crude Russia has shipped out since September 2021, when energy markets were still battered from the pandemic. Much of that decline can be attributed to Europe, which has been turning away from Moscow ahead of the European Union ban on Russian oil that will fully kick in by year-end. EU nations are looking to sign exemptions to that ban, but only as it conflicts with the plan to impose a price cap on Russian oil, which the G7 plans to roll out by the end of the year. If implemented, the cap will further dent Russia's wartime revenue. S&P Global estimates the measure will leave Russia with a surplus of 2.5 million barrels a day of oil to hand off to other customers, upping the pressure to ship more crude to Asia while shipments to Europe are already starting to decline. Crude exports to Europe clocked in below a million barrels a day in September – the first time they've dipped below that level since the pandemic – while China and India have upped their share of overall Russia oil purchases to 60%, compared to 54% in August. Russian oil shipments to Turkey have also risen 19%, making it Russia's third-largest oil customer. The US is negotiating with Asian buyers like China and India on the price cap on Russia oil, although no clear cooperation has been reached. A US Treasury official said that recent talks with China and India on the price cap have been "positive," and the cap would allow countries to have more leverage and get better prices from suppliers.

Putin's friends and enemies sent him piles of melons, a gift certificate for a tractor, and death wishes for his 70th birthday
Jake Epstein/Business Insider/Fri, October 7, 2022
Vladimir Putin observed his 70th birthday Friday amid his military's ongoing setbacks in Ukraine.
Two friendly world leaders gifted the Russian president a gift certificate for a tractor and piles of melons.
Ukrainians, however, marked the occasion on social media with far less enthusiasm. What do you get one of the world's richest men for his 70th birthday as he wages an unprovoked war against his neighbor? Russian President Vladimir Putin found out Friday as his friends and enemies sent melons, a gift certificate for a tractor, and death wishes. Putin observed the milestone birthday amid his ongoing war in Ukraine where, for weeks now, Russian forces have suffered defeats at the hands of advancing Ukrainian troops, who have liberated thousands of square miles of territory in the country's eastern and southern regions.
To mark the occasion, Tajikistan's President Emomali Rahmon gifted the Russian leader with multiple pyramids of melons, according to media reports. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, meanwhile, presented Putin with a gift certificate for a tractor, the Associated Press reported.
According to the report, tractors have been an industrial staple in Belarus for decades, and Lukashenko said he uses a model similar to the one he gifted to Putin. However, the gift may carry different weight in the context of the war in Ukraine, where tractors have been used to tow away captured Russian tanks.
Tajikistan and Belarus are two of Russia's few remaining allies, and all three are part of the broader Commonwealth of Independent States, which is a collection of ex-Soviet states that was formed in the early 1990s. The trio is also half the membership of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a regional military alliance. Lukashenko in particular is a close partner of Putin. Their companionship has even raised concerns at times that Belarus could become a direct party involved in the ongoing war in Ukraine. In contrast with Lukashenko and Rahmon, Putin's enemies did not approach his birthday with enthusiasm. Multiple Ukrainian officials took to social media to denounce the Russian leader on his birthday and slammed his actions, blaming him for the war's rising death toll. Ukrainian hackers posted a note to the Collective Security Treaty Organization website, saying, "We want to congratulate Putin on his last birthday and wish him a 'comfortable' trip to The Hague," The New York Times reported. Twitter users, meanwhile, flooded the comments of officials and media outlets and wished for his death. Putin's birthday comes as Ukrainian forces continue to advance along the war's eastern and southern fronts, forcing Russian troops to retreat from their positions, leaving behind mountains of weaponry, equipment, and ammunition in their wake.

Leader of Belarus gifts Putin a tractor for 70th birthday
Fri, October 7, 2022 /ST. PETERSBURG, Russia/AP
Russian President Vladimir Putin got an unusual gift for his 70th birthday on Friday: a tractor. As the leaders of several ex-Soviet nations met at the Czarist-era Konstantin Palace in St. Petersburg, President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus presented Putin with a gift certificate for the vehicle. Tractors have been the pride of Belarusian industry since Soviet times. Lukashenko, an autocratic leader who has ruled the ex-Soviet nation with an iron hand for nearly three decades while cultivating a man of the people image, told reporters he used a model in his garden similar to the one he gifted Putin.
It wasn't clear how the Russian leader responded to the gift, which Lukashenko's office revealed. Putin didn't mention the gift in televised remarks at the start of the meeting when he talked about the need to discuss ways of settling conflicts between ex-Soviet nations.
He also emphasized the need to exchange information to fight terrorism, illegal drugs and other crime. The leaders of the Commonwealth of Independent States, a loose alliance of ex-Soviet nations, have another gathering to attend next week in Kazakhstan's capital of Astana.

Russia beginning to 'prepare their society' to launch a nuclear attack, Zelenskyy warns, but adds Putin 'not ready to do it'
Charles R. Davis/Business Insider/Fri, October 7, 2022
Zelenskyy on video screen
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia is "prepar[ing] their society" for nuclear war. Speaking to the BBC, Zelenskyy said such preparations are "very dangerous." But he added that he did not think Russia has indeed made a decision to use nuclear weapons. The Russian government is laying the groundwork to use nuclear arms, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned Friday, saying he did not think a decision to use such weapons had been made but that even talking about it was "dangerous."Speaking to the BBC, Zelenskyy said Russia had begun "to prepare their society" for a nuclear strike in Ukraine, where Russian forces have been retreating in the wake of a Ukrainian counter-offensive that has seen Kyiv recapture territory that was illegally annexed by Moscow a week ago. Zelenskyy added: "That's very dangerous." Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly threatened the use of nuclear weapons, recently saying the US had set a "precedent" by dropping atomic bombs in World War II. Although their use is still deemed exceedingly unlikely by analysts, Western officials are taking the threats seriously and monitoring Russia for any signs it may be preparing to use a smaller, tactical nuclear weapon on the battlefield — a possibility that one expert told Insider is "extraordinarily" concerning. US President Joe Biden has likewise said he believes Putin is "not joking" about such threats.While noting he shares such concerns, Zelenskyy said there was no reason to be fatalistic about a Russian threat that is designed to make Western nations think twice about supporting Ukraine. "They are not ready to do it, to use it. But they begin to communicate. They don't know whether they'll use or not use it," he said, adding: "I think it's dangerous to even speak about it."Zelenskyy argued that Russia was already threatening the world with its actions at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which it occupied in early March. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency last month said the situation at the plant was "untenable," warning that "we are one step away from a nuclear accident." The standoff has raised fears of another Chernobyl, the 1986 nuclear reactor meltdown spread dangerous radiation across Europe. The Ukrainian president urged his allies to impose additional sanctions on Russia to discourage any sort of nuclear blackmail. "The world can stop urgently the actions of Russian occupiers," he said. "The world can implement the sanction package in such cases and do everything to make them leave the nuclear power plant."

Israeli forces kill 2 Palestinians in West Bank: Palestinian ministry
AFP/October 07, 2022
RAMALLAH, Palestinian Territories: Israeli forces on Friday shot dead two Palestinians including a 14-year-old in separate incidents in the occupied West Bank, the Palestinian health ministry said. Fourteen-year-old Adel Dawoud “succumbed to a critical wound sustained by live occupation (Israeli) fire to the head” in Qalqilya, in the northern West Bank, the health ministry said. Another Palestinian was shot dead near the city of Ramallah, the ministry said in a statement. The Israeli military said soldiers in Qalqilya fired at “a suspect who hurled Molotov cocktails at them.”“A hit was identified,” the army told AFP.
Palestinians gather each Friday in parts of the West Bank to protest Israel’s occupation of the territory since the 1967 Six-Day War. The Palestinian Red Crescent Society said its medics treated 50 people in the area northwest of Ramallah who were hit by tear gas, rubber-coated bullets or were beaten.
Israel’s military said security forces responded to a “violent riot” in the area, during which a soldier was lightly hurt by a rock thrown at his head. “The forces responded with riot dispersal means to restore order... including using live fire toward the two main rioters. Hits were identified,” the military said. The Palestinian foreign ministry described the deaths as “executions.”It accused Israel of trying to “drag the region into a cycle of violence and an explosion of the entire arena of conflict,” in a statement published by official Palestinian news agency Wafa. Dozens of Palestinians have been killed in recent months during Israeli military raids in the West Bank. Those shot dead include militants as well as civilians, such as Palestinian-American reporter Shireen Abu Akleh, who was killed while covering a raid in May.

Top UK Catholic urges PM Liz Truss to reconsider Tel Aviv-Jerusalem embassy move
Arab News/October 07, 2022
LONDON: The top Catholic cardinal in the UK has urged prime minister Liz Truss not to move the British embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Cardinal Vincent Nichols posted on Twitter on Thursday to say he had penned a letter to Truss about his concerns over the potential move. “I have written to the Prime Minister to express profound concern over her call for a review of the location of the British Embassy to the State of Israel, with the suggestion that it might be moved away from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem,” he tweeted. Truss, who took up her position as prime minister last month, said recently she was reviewing whether or not to keep the embassy in Tel Aviv, a move that would mirror a controversial decision made by former US president Donald Trump in 2018 to move the American embassy to Jerusalem. Nichols also said that moving the embassy would be “seriously damaging” for “any possibility of lasting peace in the region” as well as to the “international reputation of the United Kingdom.”The head of the Catholic Church, Pope Francis, has consistently called for maintaining the status quo on the issue of Jerusalem. Israel currently claims the whole of the city as its capital, but the Palestinian Authority wants East Jerusalem to form the capital of any future state. Speaking to Reuters, a spokesperson for the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office said Truss understood the “importance and sensitivity” of the location of the British embassy in Israel.

Leaders of Turkey, Armenia hold face-to-face meeting
Associated Press/October 07, 2022
The leaders of historic foes Turkey and Armenia have held their first face-to-face meeting since the two countries agreed to improve relations.Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met in Prague on the sidelines of a summit by the leaders of 44 countries to launch a European Political Community aimed at boosting security and economic prosperity across Europe. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was also present at what appeared to be an informal gathering of the three leaders. Later, Erdogan and Pashinyan led bilateral talks between their countries' delegations. "I sincerely believe that we will achieve full normalization (of relations) on the basis of good neighborly relations," Erdogan later told journalists, adding that the meeting was held in a "friendly atmosphere." Turkey and Armenia, which have no diplomatic relations, agreed last year to start talks aimed at putting decades of bitterness behind and reopen their joint border. Special envoys appointed by the two countries have held four rounds of talks since then. Their discussions have resulted in an agreement to resume charter flights between Turkey's largest city, Istanbul, and the Armenian capital of Yerevan. Erdogan said Armenia made some demands during the talks, but did not elaborate. The two countries' special envoys and foreign ministers would continue with their efforts toward normalization, he said. "We don't have any preconditions," Erdogan said. "We just said (to them), 'Make sure the relations between you and Azerbaijan come to a certain level of maturity and come to a peace agreement.'"Turkey, a close ally of Azerbaijan, shut down its border with Armenia in 1993 in a show of solidarity with Baku, which was locked in a conflict with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. In 2020, Turkey strongly backed Azerbaijan in the six-week conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, which ended with a Russia-brokered peace deal that saw Azerbaijan gain control of a significant part of the region. Turkey and Armenia also have a more than century-old hostility over the deaths of an estimated 1.5 million Armenians in massacres, deportations and forced marches that began in 1915 in Ottoman Turkey. It is Ankara and Yerevan's second attempt at reconciliation. Turkey and Armenia reached an agreement in 2009 to establish formal relations and to open their border, but the agreement was never ratified because of strong opposition from Azerbaijan. Last month, Armenia and Azerbaijan negotiated a cease-fire to end a flare-up of fighting that killed 155 soldiers from both sides.

US kills 3 Islamic State leaders in 2 Syria operations
Associated Press/October 07, 2022
U.S. forces killed three senior Islamic State leaders in two separate military operations in Syria Thursday, including a rare ground raid in a portion of the northeast that is controlled by the Syrian regime, U.S. officials said. According to officials, U.S. special operations forces conducted a raid near the village of Qamishli, killing IS insurgent Rakkan Wahid al Shamman, wounding another and capturing two others. Later Thursday, the U.S. conducted an airstrike in northern Syria, killing Abu Ala, the No. 2 Islamic State leader in Syria, and Abu Mu'ad al Qahtani, another IS leader, officials said. A U.S. official said a small number of U.S. troops were on the ground near Qamishli for less than an hour to conduct the ground raid. The U.S. doesn't often do missions on territory that is under the control of Syrian President Bashar Assad. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss details of the raid. In a statement, U.S. Central Command said al Shamman was known to facilitate the smuggling of weapons and fighters in support of Islamic State operations. According to the statement, no civilians or U.S. troops or were killed or injured in the raid. Additional information about the airstrike was not provided. The U.S. continues to have about 900 forces in Syria to advise and assist Syrian Democratic Forces in the fight against the Islamic State group. One U.S. official said that, for the first time in a long time, the U.S. did not use its deconfliction phone line with Russia to notify them of the U.S. troop raid and presence there. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to provide details, said the lack of deconfliction was more the result of operational security and not a reaction to Russia's war on Ukraine. The U.S. and Russia have used the deconfliction line to avoid any possible accidents or incidents when U.S. forces are in the northeastern region of Syria where Russian forces also operate.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 07-08/2022
Now is not the time for naivety on Iran
Luke Coffey/Arab News/October 07/2022
In recent weeks Iran has stepped up its pressure at home, in the region, and beyond.
For the past three weeks the regime in Tehran has faced major upheaval at home in response to the death of Mahsa Amini. The protests started outside the hospital in Tehran where Amini died, and spread rapidly to her home province of Kurdistan and to every major city in the country. This has led to a brutal crackdown that has resulted in more than 150 people killed and hundreds more injured.
Meanwhile, in recent weeks there were Iranian drone and missile strikes in northern Iraq, and Russian-operated Iranian drones over the skies of Ukraine are growing in number.
Even after the appearance of Iranian drones in Ukraine, and Tehran’s brutal crackdown against its own people, the Biden administration continues to hope for a new nuclear deal in Vienna. It is time for the international community, led by the US, to acknowledge that Iran is not going to be a responsible player on the global stage. Policies for this new reality must be developed accordingly. Here are five things that the US and its partners in Europe and the Middle East can do to deter Iranian aggression.
The first thing would be to walk away from the Vienna talks. The Biden administration has been desperate to secure a new deal with Iran, but little progress has been made. President Ebrahim Raisi has shown no real desire to agree to a new deal. He has not once demonstrated that he can be a trusted partner in the talks. Also, Russia is Iran’s main interlocutor in Vienna for the talks. This is problematic because of the breakdown in relations with the Russians over Ukraine. It's time to pull for Biden to pull the plug on the talks.
After walking away from the Vienna talks the second thing the Biden administration needs to do is return to the Trump-era “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran. The Biden administration has rolled back certain sanctions that were implemented during his predecessor’s time in the hopes of building goodwill for the nuclear talks. For example, in August 2021 Biden lifted sanctions on two Iranian missile producers. Extraordinarily, this came at a time when Iran targeted commercial and civilian infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the UAE with ballistic missiles, through their Houthi proxies in Yemen. No amount of generosity from the White House on the issue of sanctions has changed Iran’s behavior or made it more open to genuine talks in Vienna.
The Biden administration should redouble its efforts to obtain a second round of Abraham Accords
Third, the White House needs to inject new enthusiasm to deepen and widen the Abraham Accords. The normalization in relations between Israel and some of its Arab neighbors was perhaps the greatest foreign policy achievement of the Trump administration. Even though the Biden administration was initially reluctantto acknowledge the importance of the accords, it has recently been changing its tune on their success. The administration should redouble its efforts to obtain a second round of Abraham Accords agreements and help bring the region closer together. Closer relations mean a stronger region in the face of Iranian aggression.
Fourth, the Biden administration should dust off and revive old proposals such the Middle East Strategic Alliance concept. This idea was first proposed by the Trump administration as a way to deepen US engagement in the region while increasing burden sharing. For a number of reasons, it never got off the ground. But considering Iran’s prolific use of ballistic missiles and armed drones across the region, perhaps air defense cooperation would be a good way to jump start the project again. Even if the Biden administration wants to rename it, and put its own stamp on the initiative, the idea of US-Arab military cooperation is one worth pursuing.
Finally, Biden must not be scared to use force in a proportionate but lethal manner when American troops are targeted by Iran or its proxies. Over the past year and a half, Iranian forces, or their proxies, have used missiles and drones to strike at US forces in Syria, Iraq, and even the UAE. Strikes against American troops and their bases cannot go unanswered. The goal isn’t to spark a major war in the region, but to bring more stability by reestablishing a level of deterrence that the Iranians will recognize and respect.
Regrettably, there is no precedent in modern American political history for an incumbent president to abruptly change their ways and adopt a predecessor’s policies — especially on major foreign policy issues. However, with midterm elections looming in the US, and with the Republicans posed to make gains in the Congress, it may be that Biden has no choice but to take a tougher line on Iran. The sooner this happens, the better. Now is not the time for naivety, but for realism.
• Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. Twitter: @LukeDCoffey

Women, life and the pursuit of liberty in Iran
Azadeh Pourzand/Arab News/October 07/2022
The death last month of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish woman, while in the custody of Iran’s morality police has sparked an unprecedented wave of national anger against the Islamic Republic of Iran — and a violent government response.
So far, more than 150 people have been killed, including children, dozens have been wounded and hundreds remain in detention. The regime has also engaged in violent attacks in Kurdistan, including in the Kurdish region of Iraq, where Iranian Kurdish opposition political parties and their families reside.
Zahedan, the capital of the highly marginalized Sistan and Balochistan province, has been hit especially hard, with at least 63 people killed when authorities used lethal force to suppress protests after recent Friday prayers.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, while vowing to “steadfastly” investigate Amini’s death after her arrest for “improperly” wearing the mandatory hijab, continues to threaten protesters with further crackdowns and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has blamed the US and Israel for the ongoing protests. And yet, demonstrators remain undeterred.
Today, “Mahsa,” who went by her Kurdish name, Zhina, is synonymous with Iranians’ fight for freedom and liberty. The ongoing protests have evolved into anti-government strikes and boycotts by teachers and university students, intellectuals, and even oil workers. The country’s sports and artistic communities have been particularly supportive, as have former political prisoners and others wronged by the regime.
The protests have also generated massive global interest. Despite internet blocks and hashtag filtering, #MahsaAmini has been shared more than 100 million times on Twitter. Iranians in the diaspora have stepped up to show the world that they stand with the Iranian people, organizing large demonstrations in 150 cities around the world, with the largest, in Toronto, drawing an estimated 50,000 people.
Many Iranian women, whether at home or abroad, see themselves in Mahsa, being victims of gender-based discrimination, repression and cruelty. Most Iranian women, including myself, have been stopped by the regime’s morality police for violating laws against “immodesty and societal vices.” This experience is humiliating and can leave serious emotional, legal and physical scars for those harassed by the authorities.
Like Mahsa, at some point in our lives, and often repeatedly since a young age, we have all been stopped for the “inadequate” wearing of the compulsory veil. Even a few strands of hair showing from underneath our scarf can bring trouble. Schoolgirls as young as six must wear a veil to school and, once a girl turns nine, it becomes mandatory.
It has been heartwarming to see the international response to Iranians’ demands for justice in the wake of Mahsa’s death. Still, I worry that many are missing key contextual elements that are driving the visceral reaction inside my country.
I worry that many are missing key contextual elements that are driving the visceral reaction inside my country
First, while women’s rights are central to today’s protests, gender equality is far from the only demand. The regime itself is under fire, as evidenced by the slogans people are shouting: “Death to the dictator,” “Death to Khamenei,” and “We will take Iran back.” Moreover, anti-regime protests — and the regime’s bloody response — have precedence in Iran, such as in December 2017 and November 2019.
If Mahsa’s death was the spark for these most recent protests, a Kurdish saying — “Woman, life, liberty” — is its fuel. Protesters recognize that true freedom in Iran is only attainable if women are free and, for that to happen, the Islamic Republic must go.
Socioeconomic concerns, the climate crisis, corruption and widespread political repression are among the myriad reasons why men, children and women who choose to wear the hijab are protesting alongside those who do not want to.
Second, Iranian women’s objections and protests to the mandatory veil are not new; they are the continuation of a fight against compulsory veil laws and practices that are as old as the Islamic Republic itself. On March 8, 1979, less than two months after the shah was toppled, huge protests were staged in opposition to Ayatollah Khomeini’s announcement a day earlier that the veil would become compulsory in government offices.
Ever since, grassroots-level resistance has been practiced by generations of Iranian women, fueled more recently by social media. Over the years, many have been arrested and persecuted for participating in these campaigns or for taking off their scarves in public.
Third, the women’s rights movement in Iran is one of the oldest movements in the country, dating back to before the Constitutional Revolution of 1905 to 1911. Women’s rights advocates have also been among the most active in post-revolutionary Iran. In other words, today’s protests are about more than a piece of fabric; they are pluralistic, just as Iranian society is itself.
Finally, there is an unprecedented sense of unity in the protests currently underway and that poses a direct challenge to a regime reliant on a divide and rule strategy. The inability to use Syria-like marginalization tactics to contain the buildup of grievances and anger is causing the regime to lash out aggressively.
Mahsa was a Kurdish guest in Tehran (she was on holiday when she was arrested). Iranian Kurds, one of the country’s largest ethnic groups, are heavily targeted and repressed by the regime and they themselves have a long history of resilience.
Yet, the people of Iran have stood with their Kurdish brothers and sisters. This type of solidarity, which began with the women’s rights movement decades ago, has become ubiquitous. Slogans such as “Kurdistan is not alone” and “Balochistan is not alone” are being chanted by thousands of Iranian protesters in Iran and abroad.
The death of a young Kurdish woman at the hands of Iran’s morality police has awakened a nation to fight for individual rights and the rights of one another. What comes next in Iran is unclear, though one thing is certain: Collective calls for accountability, justice and freedom are reaching a crescendo that the world cannot ignore.
• Azadeh Pourzand is Co-Founder and Executive Director of the Siamak Pourzand Foundation and a Ph.D. candidate in global media and communications at SOAS University of London. Twitter: @azadehpourzand Copyright: Syndication Bureau

Multiple relationships affect push for Turkey-Armenia normalization
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/October 07/2022
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan held an unprecedented meeting in Prague on Thursday on the sidelines of the inaugural European Political Community summit. This was the first face-to-face meeting between the two leaders since the resumption of the normalization process between Ankara and Yerevan.
Since 2021, the two neighbors have been engaged in direct talks in an attempt to reestablish diplomatic relations, which have been strained for nearly three decades. Unlike previous efforts, in which multitrack diplomacy was pursued by civil society and third countries, this time Ankara and Yerevan have engaged in direct talks through official channels.
In this regard, both sides appointed special envoys to discuss steps toward normalization. Turkish envoy Serdar Kilic and his Armenian counterpart Ruben Rubinyan have held four meetings so far, three in Vienna and one in Moscow. Ten days after the fourth meeting on July 1, the Turkish and Armenian leaders held a very rare telephone call. This was the first direct contact between Pashinyan and Erdogan, during which they expressed hope that the deals reached at the last meeting between the special envoys in Vienna “will soon be implemented.” So far, the only practical result of the talks has been the restoration of direct flights between the two countries.
After this phone call, Erdogan and Pashinyan could have met in New York during the UN General Assembly, but this did not happen due to their busy schedules. Therefore, the meeting in Prague is considered important and should not be underestimated. There were several topics for discussion between the two leaders, but speeding up the normalization process is likely to have dominated their agenda, taking into account the interests that both leaders have at stake.
Erdogan, who faces critical elections next June, aims to take concrete steps toward normalization with Armenia to give a constructive image to his Western partners. And if it can play a mediation role in Armenia-Azerbaijan relations — which is mostly played by Russia or the US — this would be a cherry on the cake and would increase Ankara’s leverage in the region.
Meanwhile, due to the previous failed normalization attempts, Pashinyan’s government this time aims to see the process bear fruit as soon as possible. Although he faces domestic opposition toward normalization with Turkey, at the current conjuncture the best option for Yerevan seems to be establishing relations with Ankara, which is a key regional power and neighbor.
Both Ankara and Yerevan want to press ahead with normalization as fast as possible, amid high geopolitical tensions
Both Ankara and Yerevan want to press ahead with normalization as fast as possible, amid high geopolitical tensions. Given that Turkish-Armenian relations are described as having a history of missed opportunities, the two leaders are concerned that history may repeat itself. However, one of the advantages of the current process is that there is no third actor that could act as a spoiler, as Russia, the US and even Azerbaijan are supportive of Turkish-Armenian normalization.
Armenia also seems to be open to a dialogue with Azerbaijan. In this regard, the meeting between Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Prague is noteworthy. They held a quadrilateral meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron and European Council President Charles Michel, who also brought Pashinyan and Aliyev together in Brussels on Aug. 31.
The nerves are still raw as a result of the 2020 conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Thus, any military tension could easily derail the progress in their talks, such as the latest escalation that took place last month. The September war on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border has again complicated the solution of any issues through negotiations. Although Russia was the one that brokered the deal to end the 2020 conflict, it was the US that played a key role in the ceasefire deal reached between the two neighbors in late September.
Moscow has thousands of troops in Armenia and political influence over the Armenian leadership, but it seems like the US and the EU have taken a leading role in mediating both the Armenia-Azerbaijan and Turkey-Armenia normalization processes. Moscow’s growing isolation in the international community following its invasion of Ukraine in February is regarded as the main reason behind this shift. In addition, this could be one of the driving forces behind Armenia’s policy of seeking normalization with its neighbors. Some observers argue that being dependent on Russia both militarily and economically may harm Armenian interests in the long term, as the world might be facing a second disintegration of the Russian Empire.
Although the Russia-Ukraine war could be mentioned as a triggering factor in Armenia's normalization with Turkey, it would be wrong to underestimate Vladimir Putin’s role in this process. According to reports, the Erdogan-Pashinyan phone call was followed by a telephone conversation between Erdogan and Putin. A few days before that, the Russian president also reportedly had a discussion with Pashinyan over Turkish-Armenian normalization. Also, Pashinyan was expected to depart for St. Petersburg to meet Putin after the talks in Prague. So, Putin is still in the game.
Moreover, the Turkish-Armenian normalization process is based on multiple relationships: Turkish-American, Turkish-Russian and Azerbaijani-Armenian. A delicate balancing act among these actors is essential to achieve further steps in normalization between Yerevan and Ankara.
• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz

The shattered lands in the shadow of Russia’s sham referendums
Nick Paton Walsh/Arab News/October 07/2022
Seven months after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, this past fortnight has seen perhaps the most significant developments in a story of unmitigated disaster. Two parallel threads have changed the dynamic of the conflict.
On the one hand, a surreal, choreographed and completely predictable piece of Soviet-style political reverse engineering has been taking place in Moscow and across four partially Russian-controlled regions of Ukraine. Sham referendums, cobbled together in haste, illegal by almost every accepted international measure, have faked a mandate for Russia’s claim to annexation. The results, as emphatic as they were implausible, gave Moscow the chance to stage a formal rubber-stamping of its claim over the territories and perhaps to declare its so-called special military operation a “success.” It is the largest forcible annexation of land in Europe since 1945.
What that means for Russia’s military policy remains unclear, especially when you look at the other side of the story: How the battlefield itself is changing. Russia’s control over the territory it has taken during its assault has never looked so shaky. Recent weeks have seen a Ukrainian counteroffensive of such ferocity that it has left Russia’s previously vaunted military completely exposed. Its troops have, in some areas, literally dropped everything to run, leaving behind operational equipment including tanks and troves of ammunition, which are now being used against them by Ukraine. All this while tens of thousands of Russian men of fighting age are desperately fleeing their own country to avoid a chaotic and hugely unpopular conscription drive.
Then, of course, there is the scene on the ground — the shattered land, towns and people over which this catastrophic conflict is being fought. This week, I reported from the town of Toretsk, just a few miles from where one of the bogus referendums was taking place. There, the terror of what has already come to pass is matched by the fear of what may be yet to come.
One woman, Natalia, told me how her apartment building was torn apart by a Russian rocket, trapping 19 people on the upper floors. Incredibly, none were hurt. “I blinked twice and couldn’t see,” she said. “The balcony door flew open and trash blew in. I’m terrified of flames, and I realized, we’re on the seventh floor and it’s collapsing. Then someone screamed, ‘don’t come out as there’s no way.’ It’s a miracle. I can’t call it anything else.”
Rescuers were evacuating another woman, 73-year-old Nina, who had been living alone for six months without running water. A rocket had also hit her building two days earlier. Miraculously, she too was left unscathed and just sat in her tiny apartment, under the gaping hole it left above her. The last to leave her block, the lonely agony of her struggle, and the dilemma over what little she could take with her, was illustrated by the fragments of her life left strewn around her apartment. She showed us a picture of her student daughter, who died of meningitis aged just 40.
Moscow’s control over the territory it has taken during its assault has never looked so shaky
“God let it finish fast before I die,” she told her rescuers, fighting back her tears. “It is painful to leave, but it is also good,” she said. “I’ve never been so scared. I am strong, but I do not have the strength for this.” She also had a message for the Russians who had wreaked this wanton destruction upon her town. “I don’t want to be rude or smart,” she said, “but I just want to ask, why did you come to us? Who asked you? Or are we that silly that you wanted to liberate us?”
We drove south to the small monastery town of Sviatohirsk, somewhere I knew well, having spent six months living there on and off some eight years ago at the start of the conflict. Surrounded by hills, pine trees and fields of sunflowers, it was a place I came to appreciate for its sense of normality and peace. Now though, the futility, misery and despair of this brutal war was on display all around us. The ferocity of the fighting amid Ukraine’s rapid advance has left a devastating trail of destruction in its wake and is constantly reducing the amount of occupied territory that Russia can falsely claim as its own.
Once again, as so often in conflict, it is the most fragile who are left behind. One of just nine people still living in her block, Anna wore a thick grey coat with a yellow and orange scarf wrapped around her neck and a face mask pulled below her chin. She brushed her grey hair from her forehead as she recounted the scariest moment of the last few weeks. “The Russians were in a firefight in my courtyard,” she told us. “I was in a doorway and tried to hold the steel door shut, but a soldier pulled at the door, so I jumped down and fell in the basement. He tore into the door, shot his gun into the darkness, and missed me.”
Around us, shells still rocked the carcass of the town. Luba wore a lock of hair from her local beloved priest, killed by shelling in June. She told me she had attached it to her coat as a protective amulet. She surveyed the scene of Sviatohirsk’s wrecked post office. “The Russians made such a mess,” she remarked. She asked me if they would be coming back.
Another woman, Ludmila, was part of a group who had spent seven months hiding underground in a church basement. Finally feeling safe enough to emerge, they were still too anxious to reveal their faces. Ludmila recounted how her disabled son was injured in shelling and taken to hospital. He was alive when she last saw him, but that is all she knows.
As Ukraine’s relentless advance continues, so too does Moscow’s drive toward annexation and its demonstrably absurd claim that this land is now actually Russian territory. Instead, these ravaged, ruined towns are testament to how the collision between this right and that wrong shreds the very thing both sides covet. If these referendums give Russia an excuse to escalate this unjust war, there is no telling what may be left of these lands when it finally ends.
• Nick Paton Walsh is senior international correspondent at CNN. Twitter: @npwcnn