English LCCC Newsbulletin For Le

English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 07/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Father raises the dead and gives them life, so also the Son gives life to whomsoever he wishes
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 05/17-23/:”Jesus answered them, ‘My Father is still working, and I also am working.’ For this reason the Jews were seeking all the more to kill him, because he was not only breaking the sabbath, but was also calling God his own Father, thereby making himself equal to God. Jesus said to them, ‘Very truly, I tell you, the Son can do nothing on his own, but only what he sees the Father doing; for whatever the Father does, the Son does likewise. The Father loves the Son and shows him all that he himself is doing; and he will show him greater works than these, so that you will be astonished. Indeed, just as the Father raises the dead and gives them life, so also the Son gives life to whomsoever he wishes. The Father judges no one but has given all judgement to the Son,so that all may honour the Son just as they honour the Father. Anyone who does not honour the Son does not honour the Father who sent him.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 06-07/2022
Berri sets presidential election session for Thursday
Israeli refusal of Lebanon’s revisions threatens maritime border demarcation agreement
Aoun says gas deal remarks guarantee Lebanon's rights
Israel to reject Lebanon's proposed changes to gas deal
Bou Saab says deal with Israel '90% done'
Lebanon talks to Hochstein as Netanyahu says his 'pressure' torpedoed gas deal
Gantz asks army to be on alert as Lebanon deal falters
Bassil suggests dialogue over president, slams Berri over vote date
Lebanon announces first cholera case in almost 30 years
Two more depositors seek to forcefully withdraw their savings in Lebanon
Mikati tells al-Rahi he doesn't talk sectarianly in govt. file
Judge fines Lebanese bank heist figure, issues travel ban
Analysts: Lebanon far from gas riches even if Israel deal agreed

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 06-07/2022
US Treasury Department said it imposed sanctions on Iran’s minister of interior, communications minister, and the head of the Iranian Cyber Police
Iran woman accuses state of killing daughter at Mahsa Amini protest
Braced to crush unrest, Iran’s rulers heed lessons of Shah’s fall — analysts
Iran airs video with 2 French citizens accused of spying
Europe's leaders gather in Prague but Russia isn't invited
Ukraine's 'indirect methods' help it avoid fighting a war it can't win with Russia, top British commanders say
Ukraine is no longer low on artillery ammo because Russia abandoned so much in recent retreats, report says
Russians Fleeing the Draft Find an Unlikely Haven
Turkey, Israel ties warm with naming of ambassador
Netanyahu leaves hospital after overnight stay
Rare US airborne raid in Syria kills one
N. Korea fires missiles, flies warplanes as it blames US for 'escalation'

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 06-07/2022
Biden Administration’s Nuke Deal: Ensuring Russian and Iranian Terrorist Hegemony Over the Whole Arab World/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/October 06/2022
How Biden Can Stand With the Iranian People/Behnam Ben Taleblu and Saeed Ghasseminejad/The National Interest/October 06/2022
The dangers of Europe’s extreme political polarization/Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/October 06/2022
Women, life, and the pursuit of liberty in Iran/Azadeh Pourzand/The Arab Weekly/October 06/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 06-07/2022
Berri sets presidential election session for Thursday
Naharnet/October 06/ 2022
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has scheduled a second presidential election session for Thursday, October 13. The session will be held at 11:00 am. Parliament had held a first presidential election round on September 29 in which no candidate managed to garner 86 votes needed to win from the first round. As 63 MPs from the blocs of Hezbollah, the Free Patriotic Movement, the AMAL Movement and their allies cast blank ballots, 36 voted for MP Michel Mouawad, 11 voted for entrepreneur and philanthropist Salim Edde, 10 voted for "Lebanon", one voted for Mahsa Amini who died in Iranian morality police custody, and one voted for "the approach of (slain ex-PM) Rashid Karami". Dozens of MPs walked out of the session after the results of the first round were announced, stripping the second round of the needed 86-MP quorum. This prompted Berri to announce that he would not call for another session before "consensus" is secured over a certain candidate. Deep divisions among MPs have raised fears that Lebanon could be left without a president for months after President Michel Aoun's mandate runs out at the end of October. The incumbent's own election in 2016 came after a 29-month vacancy at the presidential palace as lawmakers made 45 failed attempts to reach consensus on a candidate. In the first round of voting, a two-thirds majority of 86 votes is required for a candidate to win. When the election goes to a second round, the required majority falls to 65. However, according to Berri, 86 MPs need to be present in parliament in order for the second round to be held.

Israeli refusal of Lebanon’s revisions threatens maritime border demarcation agreement
Najia Houssari/Arabic News/October 06/2022
Michel Aoun said the revisions guarantee Lebanon’s rights to explore for oil and gas in the fields specified in the exclusive economic zone
Israel announced on Thursday that it rejects the amendments requested by Lebanon to the US proposal
BEIRUT: Israel rejected revisions requested by Lebanon to a US-brokered border demarcation proposal on Thursday, throwing into doubt years of diplomatic efforts to enable the two countries to extract gas in a disputed part of the Mediterranean. Lebanese President Michel Aoun said the revisions made by Lebanon on the deal with Israel guarantee Lebanon’s rights to explore for oil and gas in the fields specified in the exclusive economic zone. He added Lebanon’s revisions prevent any interpretations that do not apply to the framework that Lebanon specified for the demarcation process during the indirect, months-long negotiations handled by the US mediator, Amos Hochstein. Israel announced on Thursday that it rejects the amendments requested by Lebanon to the US proposal. A Lebanese official said: “Lebanon will consult Hochstein to know if they rejected the amendments fully or in part, or if they just have their own comments on the proposal.”Deputy Parliament Speaker Elias Bou Saab, who is following up on the negotiations with Hochstein, said he is contacting him every hour to resolve the outstanding issues.
Reuters quoted an Israeli official as saying that Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid “was updated on the details of the substantial changes Lebanon is seeking to make in the agreement and instructed the negotiating team to reject them.” According to Israeli media, Israel will not give up its security and economic interests, even if that means that there will be no agreement soon. “Israel will produce gas from the Karish rig as soon as it is possible to do so. If Hezbollah or anyone else tries to damage the Karish rig or threaten us, the negotiations on the maritime line will stop immediately,” the Israeli official said, noting: “Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah will have to explain to the Lebanese why they do not have a gas field and an economic future.”
Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz warned: “The state of Lebanon will bear a heavy military price if Hezbollah attacks and the maritime border demarcation agreement with Lebanon will harm Iran’s interests.”Lapid and former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are locked in a fierce political battle ahead of the Israeli parliamentary elections, scheduled for early November. “The intense pressure exerted by my friends and me, made Lapid withdraw from the agreement that would have surrendered Israeli rights to Lebanon,” Netanyahu said. The Israeli media quoted Netanyahu as saying: “Israel needs a different leadership, an experienced and strong prime minister who resists pressure,” adding: “We will not let Israel surrender to Nasrallah.”
The US proposal was initially welcomed by both Israel and Lebanon until the latter suggested some revisions during a meeting on Monday between Aoun, Parliament Speak Nabih Berri, and Caretaker Prike Minister Najib Mikati, and handed them over to the US Ambassador to Beirut Dorothy Shea. According to Israeli media, the main sticking point was over recognition of a line of demarcation buoys that Israel has strung out to sea from its coast.
Lebanon reiterated that the so-called line of buoys is meaningless and does not exist. Lebanese media reported that Lebanon requested “to cross out the phrase Blue Line when referring to the borders, and to stress that Lebanon adheres to its international borders.” Lebanon also suggested renaming the “possible southern Sidon reservoir” as the “Sidon-Qana field,” and clarified that this field will be “developed by Lebanon and for the benefit of Lebanon.” About the companies that will operate in offshore fields, the US proposal stipulates that they “shall not be subject to US sanctions,” but Lebanon demanded replacing this phrase with “to be subject to international sanctions.” The US proposal also stipulated that “Israel does not object to any measures taken in the Qana field from the side beyond Line 23.” Lebanon requested that the phrase be amended to “Israel does not and will not object” as a future guarantee. Lebanon objected to the phrase “financial compensation,” and said that if there is a financial settlement between the operating company and Israel, then “Lebanon is not interested.” Other demands from Lebanon included amending the phrase “the US will contribute to facilitating the work of gas-extracting companies after the agreement,” calling on the US to facilitate the work of gas-extracting companies “directly and quickly” once an agreement with Israel is reached. There was no immediate response from Hezbollah on the new Israeli position. Nasrallah had stated over the weekend that Hezbollah supports the official Lebanese stance on the issue of maritime borders and oil and gas rights.

Aoun says gas deal remarks guarantee Lebanon's rights
Naharnet/October 06/ 2022
President Michel Aoun said Thursday that Lebanon’s remarks over U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein’s latest proposal “guarantee Lebanon’s right to oil and gas exploration in the fields specified in the Exclusive Economic Zone.”“These remarks also prevent any interpretations that do not conform to the framework specified by Lebanon for the demarcation process during the negotiations that lasted for months,” Aoun added, during a meeting with caretaker Defense Minister Maurice Slim. Israel said earlier on Thursday that it will reject Lebanon's amendments to the U.S.-drafted proposal. A draft agreement floated by US envoy Amos Hochstein aims to settle competing claims over offshore gas fields and was delivered to Lebanese and Israeli officials at the weekend, following years of indirect negotiations. Israel had welcomed the terms set out by Hochstein and said they would be subjected to legal review, but gave no indication it sought substantive changes. Lebanon presented its response to Washington's proposal on Tuesday. A Lebanese official involved in negotiations told AFP that "Lebanon has not yet been notified of Israel's response." The official, who requested anonymity as they were not authorized to discuss the talks, said Beirut's negotiators had been working with Hochstein "all night... to clarify some points."Washington's terms were also welcomed by Iran-backed Hezbollah, a major player in Lebanon that considers Israel its arch-enemy.

Report: Hochstein says Israel rejected Lebanese remarks, not entire deal
Naharnet/October 06/ 2022
U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein has told Lebanon that Israel has only rejected some of the Lebanese remarks to the sea border demarcation proposal and not the entire agreement, a Lebanese Presidency source told Al-Hadath TV on Thursday. A Lebanese official meanwhile told the TV network that “the Israeli rejection is electoral talk and will not affect the agreement.”He added that he expects the agreement with Israel to be “signed without problems,” adding that Israel’s latest rejection is only aimed at “saving face.” Israel said earlier on Thursday that it will reject Lebanon's amendments to the U.S.-drafted proposal. A draft agreement floated by Hochstein aims to settle competing claims over offshore gas fields and was delivered to Lebanese and Israeli officials at the weekend, following years of indirect negotiations. Israel had welcomed the terms set out by Hochstein and said they would be subjected to legal review, but gave no indication it sought substantive changes. Lebanon presented its response to Washington's proposal on Tuesday. Washington's terms were also welcomed by Iran-backed Hezbollah, a major player in Lebanon that considers Israel its arch-enemy.

Israel to reject Lebanon's proposed changes to gas deal
Agence France Presse/October 06/ 2022
Israel will reject Lebanon's amendments to a U.S.-drafted proposal on resolving a long-running maritime border dispute over gas-rich waters off the Lebanese and Israeli coasts. A draft agreement floated by U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein aims to settle competing claims over offshore gas fields and was delivered to Lebanese and Israeli officials at the weekend, following years of indirect negotiations. Israel had welcomed the terms set out by Hochstein and said they would be subjected to legal review, but gave no indication it sought substantive changes. Lebanon presented its response to Washington's proposal on Tuesday. A senior Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told AFP that Israel had received the Lebanese response to the meditator's proposal for an agreement. "Prime Minister Yair Lapid was updated on the details of the substantial changes Lebanon is seeking to make in the agreement and instructed the negotiating team to reject them," the official said. "Israel will not compromise on its security and economic interests, even if that means that there will be no agreement soon," the official added.
Threats
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said earlier this week that the U.S. proposal was "on the right track to assert Lebanon's rights over all its waters." Washington's terms were also welcomed by Iran-backed Hezbollah, a major player in Lebanon that considers Israel its arch-enemy. A Lebanese official involved in the negotiations said Tuesday that Beirut's response to Hochstein's draft includes "amendments of specific sentences so that there is no room for misunderstanding." Israel and Lebanon reopened negotiations on their maritime border in 2020, but the process was stalled by Lebanon's demand that the map used by the United Nations in the talks be modified. According to Israel, the U.S. proposal gives Israel full control of the Karish field, which Lapid has maintained falls entirely within Israeli territory and was never a subject of negotiation. The Israeli official on Thursday underscored that Israel is not negotiating with Lebanon over Karish and "will produce gas from the Karish rig as soon as it is possible to do so."Hezbollah had threatened attacks after Israel moved a production vessel near the Karish field. "If Hezbollah or anyone else tries to damage the Karish rig or threaten us -- the negotiations on the maritime line will stop immediately and (Hezbollah chief Sayyed) Hassan Nasrallah will need to explain to the citizens of Lebanon why they don't have a gas rig for the benefit of their economic future," the official added on Thursday.

Bou Saab says deal with Israel '90% done'
Naharnet/October 06/ 2022
Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab told Reuters on Thursday that he would only respond to official statements and not to media reports on Israel's stance, after a top Israeli official said that Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid is inclined to reject the latest amendments requested by Lebanon. Bou Saab added that the deal "is 90% done but the remaining 10% could make it or break it," adding that he was in constant contact with U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein.

Lebanon talks to Hochstein as Netanyahu says his 'pressure' torpedoed gas deal
Agence France Presse/October 06/ 2022
A Lebanese official involved in the negotiations to demarcate the sea border between Lebanon and Israel told AFP on Thursday that "Lebanon has not yet been notified of Israel's response,” shortly after a senior Israeli official said that Israel will reject Lebanon's latest amendments to a U.S.-drafted proposal.
The official, who requested anonymity as they were not authorized to discuss the talks, said Beirut's negotiators had been working with U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein "all night... to clarify some points." In Israel, the November 1 legislative elections have overshadowed the recent phases of the negotiations. When Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid praised Hochstein's draft a few days ago, indicating a deal with Lebanon was close, opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu said he had "capitulated to (Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan) Nasrallah's threats" and given "Hezbollah sovereign Israeli territory."
There was no evidence that the former premier had seen the U.S. proposal and he offered no specifics supporting his charges against Lapid, his long-standing political rival. On Thursday, Netanyahu reiterated that the hawkish government he hopes to form with his far-right and religious Jewish allies would not be bound by any maritime deal with Lebanon and took personal credit for Israel apparently stepping away from the deal. "It was only the heavy pressure myself and my friends put on Lapid that caused him to back away from his capitulation agreement," said Netanyahu, who spent Wednesday night in hospital after falling ill while fasting during the Jewish Yom Kippur holiday. Al-Jazeera television meanwhile reported that Israel’s objections to Lebanon’s remarks are related to the controversy over the sea buoys line near the maritime border and to the fact that Israel does not want Lebanon to explore for gas in the Qana field before a deal is signed between Israel and French oil giant TotalEnergies over the Israeli “share” in the field.

Gantz asks army to be on alert as Lebanon deal falters
Naharnet/October 06/ 2022
Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz on Thursday ordered the Israeli army to be on alert in the north amid an apparent setback in the efforts to reach a maritime border deal with Lebanon. Gantz will hold a situational assessment with the army’s chief of staff and other security officials, after Israel said it will not accept Lebanese amendments to a U.S.-brokered deal, Israeli media reports said. “The Defense Minister directed the IDF (Israeli army) to prepare for a scenario of escalation in the north, both offensively and defensively, given the developments in the negotiations on the maritime border,” a statement from Gantz’s office said. Earlier in the day, Gantz had warned that Israel’s “greatest immediate operational challenge” lies on its northern border. “These days, the government is advancing an agreement on the distribution of economic waters between us and Lebanon, which has economic and security effects, including damage to Iran's interests in Lebanon and the region,” Gantz said. “Whether the agreement is signed or not, we are prepared to protect our infrastructure and our sovereignty. If Hezbollah seeks to harm them, the military price that the state of Lebanon and Hezbollah will pay will be very heavy,” Gantz warned.

Bassil suggests dialogue over president, slams Berri over vote date
Naharnet/October 06/ 2022
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil on Tuesday suggested holding “national dialogue” over the presidential election, as he criticized Speaker Nabih Berri for choosing October 13 as a date for the upcoming presidential vote session. Reciting the FPM’s “presidential priorities” paper, Bassil said the new president must “preserve national sovereignty, protect the border and the full rights, devise a defense strategy in which the state is the main authority, preserve and develop Lebanon’s ties with the world, and achieve a swift and safe repatriation of the displaced Syrians.”He added that the FPM’s support for any candidate hinges on “how much he commits to our presidential aspirations.” “We will distribute this paper to a number of blocs and leaders so that it becomes the basis of discussion between us and any candidate, and naturally we will visit Bkirki to hand it to Patriarch (Beshara) al-Rahi and we will re-propose that efforts under his auspices be exerted in order to close ranks,” Bassil said. “We propose national dialogue over the presidential election, which a number of leaders topped by the president can do. We have started receiving invitations to (hold dialogue) abroad, whereas it is better to hold a domestic dialogue,” the FPM chief added. Lamenting that there are “discouraging signs” in the presidential file, Bassil slammed Berri for choosing the date of October 13 for the next presidential elections session. “This indicates non-seriousness and carries disregard for people’s sentiments and the martyrs,” Bassil added. The FPM will on October 13 mark the 32nd anniversary of the 1990 ouster of President Michel Aoun from the Baabda Palace following a deadly Syrian-led offensive. Asked about Israel’s rejection of Lebanon’s latest remarks over sea border demarcation, Bassil said: “We must wait a bit regarding rejection and acceptance, seeing as it is not easy for anyone to bear the alternative to agreement, because the alternative to agreement is war.”“The agreement is fair for Lebanon and the proposed amendments do not harm the core of the agreement. We believe that the achievement has been made and it is difficult to accept the alternative, which is war,” Bassil added.

Lebanon announces first cholera case in almost 30 years
Associated Press/October 06/ 2022
Lebanon's health ministry on Thursday announced the crisis-hit country's first case of cholera in decades. The announcement comes as neighboring war-torn Syria is struggling to contain a cholera outbreak that has spread across the country over the past month. Lebanon began a downward spiral in late 2019 that has plunged three-quarters of its population into poverty. Rampant power cuts, water shortages, and skyrocketing inflation have deteriorated living conditions for millions. The Health Ministry said the person infected is from Lebanon's impoverished predominantly rural northern province of Akkar, which borders Syria, adding that it was the first case of the waterborne disease since 1993. Caretaker Health Minister Firass Abiad has met with authorities and international organizations following the confirmed case to discuss ways to prevent a possible outbreak. According to the World Health Organization, a cholera infection is caused by consuming food or water infected with the Vibrio cholerae bacteria, and while most cases are mild to moderate, not treating the illness could lead to death. Richard Brennan, Regional Emergency Director of the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region, told The Associated Press that the organization has been in talks with authorities in Lebanon and other countries bordering Syria to bring in the necessary supplies to respond to possible cases in the country. "Cross-border spread is a concern, we're taking significant precautions," Brennan said. "Protecting the most vulnerable will be absolutely vital."Brennan added that vaccines are in short supply relative to global demand. Impoverished families in Lebanon often ration water, unable to afford private water tanks for drinking and domestic use. The U.N. and Syria's Health Ministry have said the source of the outbreak is likely linked to people drinking unsafe water from the Euphrates River and using contaminated water to irrigate crops, resulting in food contamination. Syria's health services have suffered heavily from its yearslong war, while much of the country is short on supplies to sanitize water. Syrian health officials as of Wednesday documented at least 594 cases of cholera and 39 deaths. Meanwhile, in the rebel-held northwest of the country, health authorities documented 605 suspected cases, dozens of confirmed cases, and at least one death.

Two more depositors seek to forcefully withdraw their savings in Lebanon
Associated Press/October 06/ 2022
Two more depositors sought to forcefully withdraw their savings on Thursday in Lebanon. Just south of Beirut in Khalde, a man tried but was unable to break into a Banque Libano-Française branch, according to depositors' groups, and has since left the scene. And in the southern city of Nabatieh, Yahya Badreddine broke into Bankmed armed with a handgun. In a video he took of himself inside the bank, the angry depositor threatened to kill himself if he didn't receive his money. According to depositors' protest groups, he has about $100,000 in savings locked in his account, and is reportedly struggling to cope with some $48,000 in debt. He was still negotiating with bank management at midafternoon.

Mikati tells al-Rahi he doesn't talk sectarianly in govt. file
Naharnet/October 06/ 2022
Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati held talks Thursday in Bkirki with Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi. Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Mikati said he briefed the patriarch on “the important issue that is about to be finalized, which is related to the demarcation of the maritime border.” “His Eminence inquired about some of the details of this agreement, and I told him that despite the importance of this agreement strategically, today I’m personally pleased over two issues: that we are avoiding a certain war in the region, and secondly and most importantly is that when we unite and we have a unified decision we can reach what we all want,” the PM added. “Unity is necessary, especially amid these circumstances, and it must be present to elect a new president, regardless of the figure and the opinions of each camp, and we must work with full seriousness to elect a president in these circumstances,” Mikati went on to say. He added that the talks also tackled the government formation file. “I stressed to His Eminence that I’m the last person to talk about sectarianism and that I believe in Lebanon, its unity and the building of the state,” Mikati said. “Today we must avoid talking about any matters that lead to further fragmentation, and we must discuss what can bring the Lebanese together rather than push them away from each other,” the PM-designate added.

Judge fines Lebanese bank heist figure, issues travel ban
Associated Press/October 06/ 2022
A Lebanese judge on Thursday fined and issued a six-month travel ban to a woman who stormed her bank with a fake pistol and took her trapped savings to cover her sister's cancer treatment. Lebanon's cash-strapped banks have imposed strict limits on withdrawals of foreign currency since 2019, tying up the savings of millions of people. About three-quarters of the population has slipped into poverty as the tiny country's economy continues to spiral. The Lebanese pound has lost 90% of its value against the dollar. Sali Hafez last month broke into a BLOM Bank branch in Beirut with activists from the Depositors' Outcry protest group, and stormed into the manager's office. They forced bank employees to hand over $12,000 and the equivalent of about $1,000 in Lebanese pounds. Hafez was widely celebrated as a hero, and went into hiding for weeks. Her lawyer, Ali Abbas, told The Associated Press that Hafez turned herself in Wednesday night, and that the bank had pressed charges. Another sister involved in the heist was with Sali. "The judge decided to let them go on a bail of 1 million pounds each, and a six-month travel ban," Abbas said in a phone interview from the Justice Palace. One million Lebanese pounds was once worth over $666, but has since devalued to $25. Hafez left the Justice Palace and posed in front of media cameras with a raised fist and smile. She said she is going to her bank branch to sign a document confirming the amount of money she withdrew during her heist and the amount still locked in her account.
"But how about you give me the rest of my money while things are calm, so we don't have to go through that again?" she said to the press, addressing her bank's management. Following the incident last month, the Depositors' Outcry had vowed to support more bank raids, and about a dozen of similar incidents have since occurred. On Wednesday, Lebanese lawmaker Cynthia Zarazir staged a sit-in at her bank branch with a lawyer, demanding to withdraw $8,500 to cover expenses for a surgery. These developments have rocked the Lebanese banks, who say they have been unjustly targeted for the country's fiscal crisis. The Association of Banks in Lebanon temporarily closed for a week, before partially reopening last week, citing security concerns. Lebanon for over two years has been struggling to implement a series of reforms to reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund for a bailout program and make its battered economy viable again.

Analysts: Lebanon far from gas riches even if Israel deal agreed
Agence France Presse/October 06/ 2022
Lebanon is grappling to strike a deal with Israel over contested maritime gas fields, but even with an agreement the cash-strapped country faces multiple hurdles before tapping potential hydrocarbon riches, analysts say. "A deal would mark one step forward but it does not mean that Lebanon has become a gas- or oil-producing country," said Marc Ayoub, an associate fellow at the American University of Beirut's Issam Fares Institute. "We are talking of a timeline of five to six years... before the first gas" if commercially viable reservoirs are in fact found, the energy expert told AFP, describing the timeframe as "optimistic."
With the demand for gas rising worldwide because of an energy crisis sparked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Lebanon hopes that an offshore discovery would ease its current unprecedented financial downturn. But more than a decade since it declared its maritime boundaries and an Exclusive Economic Zone, it still has no proven natural gas reserves. One well drilled in 2020 by a consortium of energy giants TotalEnergies, Eni and Novatek showed only traces but no commercially viable gas deposits. Further test drilling, in a block near the border, has been hampered by the maritime border dispute between Lebanon and Israel, which are technically still at war. Following years of U.S.-mediated negotiations, a draft proposal from Washington at the weekend was welcomed by both sides. But Israel on Thursday said it would reject amendments to the proposal requested by Lebanon this week, further prolonging a final agreement. A final deal, however, would allow "offshore exploration activities to continue," off Lebanon's coast, Ayoub said. "But that doesn't mean that Lebanon has become rich... or that its crisis has been solved."
'First gas'
A 2012 seismic study of a limited offshore area by the British firm Spectrum estimated recoverable gas reserves in Lebanon at 25.4 trillion cubic feet. The authorities in Lebanon have announced higher estimates. Block 9 near the border with Israel contains the so-called Qana field or Sidon reservoir, and will be a major zone for offshore exploration by TotalEnergies and Eni that were awarded a contract in 2018. "This time next year, we should know if there is a commercial discovery in Qana or not," Ayoub said. "If we have a discovery, it will take... no less than three to five years after exploration" before production could start. This time frame, according to Ayoub, assumes there are no delays by Lebanese authorities who are widely blamed for the corruption and mismanagement behind the country's financial crash. It took months for the Lebanese Petroleum Administration (LPA) regulatory body to name its board after it was formed in 2012, because of political disputes over nominations. Several bidding rounds for offshore gas and oil licenses have been hit by delays since they began in 2013. Already, Lebanon lags far behind Israel which has been investing in the offshore Karish field for years and is expecting its first gas within weeks.
Risky investment Roudi Baroudi, an energy consultant, said that gas or oil production could start within three years if commercially viable reservoirs are found. But to attract energy firms and benefit from potential discoveries, Lebanon desperately needs to undergo changes, he told AFP. "Lebanon is not a good investment unless the government implements reforms," the energy expert said. Reforms would provide "the basic assurances that international companies need to work with less risk". State institutions in Lebanon have collapsed under the weight of the crisis, with strikes by civil servants adding to the paralysis.
An economic recovery plan has yet to take off more than three years since the financial downturn began, despite mounting pressures from foreign donors and the International Monetary Fund. And political gridlock has caused a months-long delay in forming a new government amid fears of a presidential vacuum after Michel Aoun's mandate expires at the end of October. With a bankrupt state unable to deliver more than an hour or two of mains electricity a day, energy firms may choose to work on their Lebanon projects out of Cyprus, according to Baroudi. "With no rule of law, Lebanon is a jungle," he said. "It's absolute chaos, whether judicially, financially or in terms of regulatory" bodies.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 06-07/2022
US Treasury Department said it imposed sanctions on Iran’s minister of interior, communications minister, and the head of the Iranian Cyber Police
Reuters/October 06/2022
WASHINGTON: The United States on Thursday imposed sanctions on seven Iranian officials over the shutdown of Internet access and the crackdown on peaceful protesters following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in the custody of morality police. The US Treasury Department in a statement said it imposed sanctions on Iran’s minister of interior, Ahmad Vahidi; Communications Minister Eisa Zarepour; and Vahid Mohammad Naser Majid, the head of the Iranian Cyber Police, among others. “The United States condemns the Iranian government’s Internet shutdown and continued violent suppression of peaceful protest and will not hesitate to target those who direct and support such actions,” Under Secretary of the Treasury Brian Nelson said in the statement. The nationwide unrest sparked by Amini’s death has spiraled into the biggest challenge to Iran’s clerical leaders in years, with protesters calling for the downfall of the Islamic Republic founded in 1979. Rights groups say thousands have been arrested and hundreds injured in the crackdown waged by security forces including the Basij, a volunteer militia affiliated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. Rights groups put the death toll at over 150. The United States last month imposed sanctions on Iran’s morality police over allegations of abuse of Iranian women, saying it held the unit responsible for the death of Amini, an Iranian Kurd who died after being detained in Tehran on Sept. 13 for “inappropriate attire.” Authorities have reported numerous deaths among the security forces, accusing foreign adversaries, including the United States, of meddling to destabilize Iran.

Iran woman accuses state of killing daughter at Mahsa Amini protest
AFP/October 06, 2022
Nasrin Shahkarami also accused the authorities of threatening her to make a forced confession over the death of 16-year-old Nika
A crackdown by the security forces on the women-led protests has claimed dozens of lives, according to human rights groups
PARIS: The mother of an Iranian teen who died after joining protests over Mahsa Amini’s death accused the authorities of murdering her, in a video sent Thursday to foreign-based opposition media. Nasrin Shahkarami also accused the authorities of threatening her to make a forced confession over the death of 16-year-old Nika, who went missing on September 20 after heading out to join an anti-hijab protest in Tehran. Protests erupted across Iran over the death of Amini, a 22-year-old Kurd, after her arrest by the morality police in Tehran for allegedly breaching the Islamic republic’s strict dress code for women. A crackdown by the security forces on the women-led protests has claimed dozens of lives, according to human rights groups. After Nika Shahkarami’s death, her family had been due to bury her in the western city of Khorramabad on what would have been her 17th birthday, her aunt Atash Shahkarami wrote on social media. But Persian-language media outside Iran have reported that the girl’s family were not allowed to lay her to rest in her hometown, and that her aunt and uncle were later arrested. The aunt later appeared on television saying Nika Shahkarami had been “thrown” from a multi-story building. But her sister said “they forced her to make these confessions and broadcast them,” in the video posted online Thursday by Radio Farda, a US-funded Persian station based in Prague. “We expected them to say whatever they wanted to exonerate themselves... and they have in fact implicated themselves,” said Nasrin Shahkarami. “I probably don’t need to try that hard to prove they’re lying... my daughter was killed in the protests on the same day that she disappeared.”The mother said a forensic report found that she had been “killed on that date, and due to repeated blunt force trauma to the head. “I saw my daughter’s body myself... The back of her head showed she had suffered a very severe blow as her skull had caved in. That’s how she was killed.” Nasrin Shahkarami said the authorities had tried to call her several times but she has refused to answer. “But they have called others, my uncles, others, saying that if Nika’s mother does not come forward and say the things we want, basically confess to the scenario that we want and have created, then we will do this and that, and threatened me.” Oslo-based group Iran Human Rights (IHR) on Thursday said it held the Islamic republic responsible for Nika Shahkarami’s death. “Contradictory claims by the Islamic republic about... Nika Shakarami’s cause of death based on grainy edited footage and her relatives’ forced televised confessions under duress are unacceptable,” it said. IHR director Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam called for an independent investigation. “The evidence points to the government’s role in Nika Shakarami’s murder, unless the opposite is proven by an independent fact-finding mission under the supervision of the United Nations,” he said in a statement. “Until such a committee is formed, the responsibility for Nika’s murder, like the other victims of the current protests, rests with (Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah) Ali Khamenei and the forces under his command.”

Braced to crush unrest, Iran’s rulers heed lessons of Shah’s fall — analysts
Arab News/October 06/2022
Kasra Aarabi: ‘The one striking similarity the current protests have with 1979 is the mood on the streets, which is explicitly revolutionary ... They don’t want reform, they want regime change’
Alex Vatanka: ‘Today, the Bazaar has nothing to defend, as it no longer controls the economy which is now in the hands of the Guards’
DUBAI: Iran’s clerical rulers will likely contain the country’s eruption of unrest for now, and prospects of the imminent dawn of a new political order are slim if history is any guide, four analysts said. The protests, which began over the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini her arrest by morality police, have spiralled into a revolt against what protesters said was the increasing authoritarianism of its ruling Islamic clerics. However, the chances of this snowballing into the kind of uprising that rapidly unseated veteran Egyptian and Tunisian rulers in 2011 seem remote any time soon, since Iran’s rulers are determined to maintain their grip on power at any cost. For decades, the clerical establishment has used its loyal elite force, the Revolutionary Guards, to violently crush ethnic uprisings, student unrest and protests against economic hardship. So far the Guards have been relatively restrained, but they could be mobilized quickly. If the protests persist, the Islamic Republic will turn to its usual solution: “unrestrained violence against unarmed civilians to quash the protests this time around,” said Kasra Aarabi, the Iran Program Lead at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. Already, the protests have lasted nearly three weeks – turning into one of the biggest demonstrations of opposition to Iran’s Islamic clerical rule in years.
Although the volume of protests cannot be compared to the 1979 Islamic revolution, when millions took to the streets, the solidarity and unanimity of protesters calling for the downfall of the clerical establishment are reminiscent, analysts said. “The one striking similarity the current protests have with 1979 is the mood on the streets, which is explicitly revolutionary ... They don’t want reform, they want regime change,” said Aarabi. “Of course, no one can predict when this moment will happen: it could be weeks, months or even years ... But the Iranian people have made up their mind.”
Challenging the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy, protesters have burned pictures of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and chanted “Death to the Dictator,” unfazed by security forces using tear gas, clubs and, in many cases, live ammunition. But Iran’s top rulers are determined not to show the kind of weakness they believe sealed the fate of the US-backed Shah. To human rights campaigners at that time, the Shah’s great error was to alienate the population with torture and bloodshed. But in hindsight some historians say the Shah was too weak, slow and irresolute in repression.
“The regime’s approach is far more reliant on repression than the Shah,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute.
Rights groups said the state crackdown on protests has so far led to the death of at least 150 people, with hundreds injured and thousands arrested.
Officials say many members of the security forces have been killed by “thugs and rioters linked to foreign foes,” echoing Khamenei’s comments on Monday in which he blamed the United States and Israel for fomenting the “riots.”Shortly before the revolution, Iran’s Shah appeared on national TV, saying: “As Shah of Iran ... I heard the voice of your revolution ... I cannot but approve your revolution.” His opponents saw that as a sign of fragility. “Khamenei had learned the lesson, as he lived through the revolution, that if you tell the people you’ve heard their voices and that you are wrong, this is the end of your leadership. He doesn’t want to do that,” said Vatanka. Nevertheless, Khamenei’s unyielding rhetoric also carries risk, Vatanka said. “If Khamenei does not listen ... and stop this nonsense that protests are all foreign-led, there will be more protests,” he said. Demonstrations have spread from Amini’s native Kurdistan province to all of Iran’s 31 provinces, with all layers of society, including ethnic and religious minorities, joining in.
“These broad-based protests have attracted almost all segments of the population whose grievances have not been addressed by the regime,” said Vahid Yucesoy, a specialist on political Islam based in Canada. A popular political Kurdish slogan used in the Kurdish independence movement, “Woman, Life, Freedom” that was first chanted at Amini’s funeral on Sept. 17 in the Kurdish town of Saqez, has been used globally in protests against her death. Fearing an ethnic uprising, the establishment has adopted a restrained repression instead of the iron fist strategy it displayed in the past, analysts said. The protests are “secular, non-ideological to some extent anti-Islamic,” said Saeid Golkar, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga. “Iranians are revolting against the clergy ... who use religion to suppress the people,” he said. The anti-Shah revolt reverberated around provincial cities, towns, and villages. But what paralyzed his rule was strikes by oil workers, who turned off the taps on most of the country’s revenue, and by bazaar merchants, who funded the rebel clerics. While university students have played a pivotal role in current protests with dozens of universities on strike, there has been little sign of the Bazaar and oil workers joining in. “Bazaaris were important during the 1979 revolution as, at the time, they saw the Shah’s economic reforms as against their interests and therefore backed the revolution,” Vatanka said.
“Today, the Bazaar has nothing to defend, as it no longer controls the economy which is now in the hands of the Guards.”The Guards, loyal to Khamenei, is an industrial empire as well as being a powerful military force. It wields political clout and controls Iran’s oil industry.

Iran airs video with 2 French citizens accused of spying
Associated Press/October 06/ 2022
Iran on Thursday published video showing two detained French citizens accused of spying amid ongoing protests roiling the country that Tehran has sought to describe as a foreign plot instead of local anger over the death of a 22-year-old detained by the country's morality police. The video released by the state-run IRNA news agency showed two French citizens, Cecile Kohler and Jacque Paris, who are unionists associated with France's National Federation of Education, Culture and Vocational Training. Iran, which long has used detained Westerners as bargaining chips in negotiations, previously has offered no public evidence to support the spying accusations. The clips also resembled other videos of Tehran has forced prisoners to make. In 2020, one report suggested authorities over the last decade had aired at least 355 coerced confessions. In the clips, Kohler wears a headscarf and purportedly describes herself as an "intelligence and operation agent of French foreign security service." Paris purportedly says: "Our goals in French foreign security service is put pressure on Iran's government." The clips are part of what is described as a forthcoming documentary to air on Iranian state television that will accuse them of bringing cash to the country to stir dissent. France did not immediately respond to the release of the video clips. However in May, the French government demanded their release and condemned "these baseless arrests." Their visit to Iran coincides with months of protests by teachers for higher wages in the country. Meanwhile, Iran has been roiled by weeks of protests over the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who died in police custody after being detained by the country's morality police.

Europe's leaders gather in Prague but Russia isn't invited
Associated Press/October 06/ 2022
Leaders from around 44 countries are gathering Thursday to launch a "European Political Community" aimed at boosting security and economic prosperity across the continent, with Russia the one major European power not invited. The meeting in the Czech capital Prague is the brainchild of French President Emmanuel Macron and is backed by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. It's taking place amid the backdrop of Russia's war on Ukraine, which began on Feb. 24, and as pressure builds to allow Ukraine to join the European Union. The summit will involve the 27 EU member countries, aspiring partners in the Balkans and Eastern Europe, as well as neighbors like Britain - the only country to have left the EU - and Turkey. "This meeting is a way of looking for a new order without Russia. It doesn't mean that we want to exclude Russia forever, but this Russia — Putin's Russia — has not a seat," EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell told reporters."Unhappily you cannot build a security order with Russia. Russia is isolated," Borrell said. Critics claim the new forum is an attempt to put the brakes on EU enlargement. Others fear it may become a talking shop, perhaps meeting once or twice a year but devoid of any real clout or content. In a speech unveiling his idea in May, Macron may have fueled the enlargement concerns. "The war in Ukraine and the legitimate aspiration of its people, just like that of Moldova and Georgia, to join the European Union, encourages us to rethink our geography and the organization of our continent," he said. But even with the outpouring of support for Ukraine — in the form of weapons so it can fight back or shelter for people fleeing — Macron said, "we all know perfectly well that the process which would allow them to join, would in reality take several years, and most likely several decades."What is needed, Macron said, is "a new space for political and security cooperation, cooperation in the energy sector, in transport, investments, infrastructures, the free movement of persons and in particular of our youth."The inaugural European Political Community summit at Prague Castle will kick off with an opening ceremony, followed by a series of meetings where leaders will discuss the key challenges Europe faces; security, energy, climate, the dire economic situation, and migration. No EU money or programs are on offer, and no formal declaration will be issued after the summit. The forum, an EU official involved in preparations said, "does not replace existing organizations, structures or processes and does not aim to create new ones at this stage." The proof of its worth will probably only be known once a second summit is held.

Ukraine's 'indirect methods' help it avoid fighting a war it can't win with Russia, top British commanders say
Christopher Woody/Business Insider/October 06/ 2022
ABOARD HMS QUEEN ELIZABETH — Ukraine has turned the tide against Russia since Moscow launched its invasion in late February, forcing the Russian military to reduce its ambitions and call up additional troops.
Heavy weapons and a strong will to fight, as well as Russia's military failings, have enabled Ukraine's success, but its creative use of technology has also helped shape the battlefield in its favor, two of the British military's highest-ranking officers said at the Atlantic Future Forum on September 28 and 29.
Speaking aboard the Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth, which sailed to New York City to host the forum, Adm. Sir Tony Radakin said the war shows the importance of being able to innovate and incorporate new technology quickly.
What's also visible is how Ukraine has "shifted away from being a 'little Russia' fighting a 'big Russia' in a very direct way and is adopting more indirect methods and how they are impacting on Russia's ability to maintain the territory it's gained," said Radakin, who is chief of the defense staff and the British military's highest-ranking officer. "The direct method is really the classic war of attrition and you're almost in a symmetry of the way that your enemy's fighting," Radakin added. "I think Ukraine has been adept at recognizing that if it fights as 'little Soviet' against 'big Soviet' or 'big Russia,' then 'big Russia' will win."
Russian tanks during military drills in the Leningrad region on February 14.Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP
Ukraine's military declined in size and quality after the Cold War and was still mostly a Soviet-style force when Russia seized Crimea in 2014. Since then, Kyiv has modernized its forces and trained closely with the US and other NATO militaries.
Early in the war, Ukraine used small, mobile teams with anti-tank missiles to slow Russia's armored forces, which often advanced with little infantry support. The war then became more static, with elements of a war of attrition such as heavy bombardments by artillery and cruise and ballistic missiles, mostly launched by Russia. In recent weeks, a rapid Ukrainian offensive has retaken vast swathes of territory in eastern Ukraine. Radakin said Ukrainian "bravery" in defense of cities forced Russia to limit its operations to eastern Ukraine and that Kyiv's willingness to cede territory in the east "allowed it to strengthen its defenses" and gave it "the capacity to do more in the south" as well as "impose pressure on parts of Russia and what Russia's trying to defend."
Some of those efforts have been narrow in scope but had a broader impact, Radakin added. "If you look at some of those attacks into Crimea, on their own they're tactical attacks, but what they actually do is they put Crimea at risk."
Other Ukrainian successes in the Black Sea, including sinking of the Moskva and recapturing Snake Island, "enabled the backdrop to be created for the grain to start flowing," Radakin said, referring to the resumption of grain exports in July.
Older weapons of Soviet origin used by both militaries have played an important role in the war, but new weapons and older weapons used in new ways have also had an impact.
At the Air, Space, and Cyber Conference conference held outside Washington, DC, in September, Gen. James Hecker, the commander of US Air Forces in Europe, attributed most of Russia's aircraft losses Ukrainian S-300 and Buk anti-aircraft missiles, both of Soviet design.
But Hecker also highlighted innovations, including the modification of a US-made anti-radiation missile to work with Ukraine's Soviet-era jets, allowing them to target Russian radars.
That modification was "no easy feat, but we did it in a couple weeks," Hecker told reporters. "I kind of joked with some of my folks that if we tried to do something like this on one of our planes, it would have taken a year."
While neither Ukraine nor Russia has gained air superiority, both have substituted low-level drones "for more traditional forms of airpower for tactical targeting and intelligence-gathering," Chris Dougherty, a former US Defense Department official, said during a Defense One event in September.
A Ukrainian soldier holds a drone
"The scale and scope with which both sides in this fight are using small tactical drones as basically forward observers for artillery strikes is really, really something," said Dougherty, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.
US military leaders have said fighting in Ukraine demonstrates the utility of and challenges posed by drones, and their use there has left an impression on US arms makers.
"As someone who's paid to make airplanes for a living, I find the use of drone technology by both sides to be very interesting," Tom Jones, president of aeronautics at Northrop Grumman, said at the forum.
"Looking at that, as we now are trying to figure out how we better incorporate uncrewed systems into our own force structure and understanding what that family-of-systems approach ought to look like, will be useful," Jones added.
Ukraine has also found military uses for civilian technology. Kyiv credits Starlink with keeping its troops and civilians online, and it repurposed an app meant to provide government services to take reports about Russian military activity.
Ukrainians can take a photo of a tank and submit it through the app to be identified using artificial intelligence, "and then a human makes a decision to target and shoot the tank," Schmidt said. "It's a completely different way of running a war."
Speaking alongside Schmidt, Gen. Sir Patrick Sanders, chief of the general staff and the British army's highest-ranking officer, said the war offers a glimpse of how new technology and old methods will mix on future battlefields.
"There are elements of it that look no different to what you were seeing in 1916, 1917," Sanders said, "but overlaid on top of that are some foretastes of what you can do to give yourself an advantage when you begin to apply those new technologies."
Sanders echoed Radakin, saying those advantages haven't been decisive but have allowed Kyiv to take an "indirect approach" and avoid "a symmetrical fight" with Russia.
"For me, we can forecast out to what a war with China or a very high-tech peer might look like, but there are clearly some facets that are enduring," Sanders said. "Right now, you're seeing how you can combine that sort of innovation and creativity with the stuff that will never change in warfare — the close combat, attrition, mass, and then maneuver."

Ukraine is no longer low on artillery ammo because Russia abandoned so much in recent retreats, report says
Mia Jankowicz/Business Insider/October 06/ 2022
A Ukrainian soldier stands among ammunition.
Ukraine's well supplied with artillery ammo taken as Russia retreated, The Wall Street Journal said. Ukraine's forces had faced severe shortages of ammunition earlier in the war.As much of Ukraine's arsenal is Soviet or Russian-made, there are limited sources for resupplying.
Ammunition left behind by fleeing Russian troops is filling Ukraine's depleted reserves and powering its counteroffensive, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday. Russia's hurried retreat from the Kharkiv region in early September involved troops abandoning hardware including tanks, other armored vehicles, and howitzers. They also left behind huge quantities of Soviet-caliber artillery shells, the paper reported. "The Russians no longer have a firepower advantage," an unnamed artillery officer told the paper. "We smashed up all their artillery units before launching the offensive, and then we started to move ahead so fast that they didn't even have time to fuel up and load their tanks. They just fled and left everything behind." The report said that equipment was being turned on Russian forces as Ukraine advances beyond the recently recaptured city of Lyman in the Donbas region.
The recapture of Lyman provides strategic advantages, as the city served as a supply and logistics hub for Russia's operation in the region. Ukraine had previously struggled to match Russia in sheer quantity of firepower. Much of Ukraine's military arsenal is Russian or Soviet equipment, making it hard to replenish its stock. In March, Western officials reported that Ukrainian troops in Mariupol were resupplying by taking ammo from Russian soldiers. In June, Vitaliy Kim, the governor of the southern region of Mykolaiv, said, "We are out of ammo," Voice of America reported.
The US depleted its own reserves of some ammunition in supplying Ukraine. An unnamed defense official told the Journal in late August that levels of 155 mm ammunition were becoming "uncomfortably low."
But this has begun to change since Ukraine's lightning-fast counteroffensive in September. As its forces recaptured huge swathes of territory in the northeastern Kharkiv region, Russians dropped their guns and abandoned tanks.
One Ukrainian soldier, identified only as Birdie, told The Telegraph that during that effort, Russian troops "left a huge amount of vehicles and ammunition," adding, "We couldn't transfer or evacuate it all to our rear."
The Twitter account of Ukraine's defense ministry mocked the Russians by describing them as "the largest supplier of military equipment for the Ukrainian army."Oryx, a project to document and track military-equipment usage and losses, has counted 442 Russian tanks captured by Ukrainians throughout the war. The Journal's report, citing Oryx, said 320 tanks had been supplied to Ukraine from elsewhere. Armored fighting vehicles and infantry fighting vehicles that Ukraine captured from Russia also outnumbered foreign donations, according to Oryx.

Russians Fleeing the Draft Find an Unlikely Haven
Andrew Higgins/The New York Times/October 06/2022
BISHKEK, Kyrgyzstan — Rents are skyrocketing, luxury hotels and grimy hostels do not have beds to spare. And on the dusty, sunny streets of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, bands of young migrants, nearly all men, wander aimlessly, dazed at their world turned upside down — and their hasty, self-imposed exile to a poor, remote country that few could previously place on a map. After leaving often well-paying jobs and families in Moscow and Vladivostok, Russia, and many places in between, tens of thousands of young Russians — terrified of being dragooned into fighting in Ukraine — are pouring into Central Asia by plane, car and bus. The influx has turned a country long scorned in Russia as a source of cheap labor and for its backward ways into an unlikely and, for the most part, welcoming haven for Russian men, some poor, many relatively affluent and highly educated — but all united by a desperate desire to escape being caught up in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. “I look up at the clear sky every day and give thanks that I am here,” said Denis, an events organizer from Moscow who Friday joined scores of fellow Russians at a bar in Bishkek to rejoice at their escape and trade tips on places to sleep, getting Kyrgyz residency papers and finding work. The gathering Friday night, convened to celebrate the start of a new “Russian community,” was one small part of a vast exodus of Russians to Central Asia, Armenia, Georgia, Turkey and a shrinking list of other places still willing take them in during what has become their country’s most concentrated burst of emigration since the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution. The outflow began in February, with hundreds of thousands of people leaving after Russia invaded Ukraine, but has accelerated since Sept. 21, when Putin declared a “partial mobilization” in response to battlefield defeats. In the subsequent four days, the independent Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta reported, 261,000 military-aged men were estimated to have left. Tens of thousands more have fled since. The chaotic rush for the exit has inverted the usual shape of a wartime refugee crisis: Unlike the millions of Ukrainian women and children who have fled into Poland and other European countries, these Russian men are not running away from an invading army, but from serving in one. Nor do they fit the stereotype of migrants as destitute people trying to escape the developing world.
While Putin boasted Friday in the Kremlin that his war had given Russia millions of new citizens grabbed from Ukraine, the conflict is driving his real citizens to despair and flight. “When it all started, we thought it would just affect professional soldiers and their families, but with mobilization, it has touched us all,” said Alexander, a 23-year-old university student from the Russian Far East. Staying in Russia, he added, would mean “either going to prison or into the army.”At the bar in Bishkek, no one seemed to take seriously Putin’s latest announcement — that he was annexing four regions of Ukraine, vowing that Ukrainians living there would from now on be “forever” Russian. “He just lies all the time,” said Yuri, a 36-year-old artist from Siberia. Before embarking on a three-day bus and train journey to Bishkek last week, Yuri ran a small business designing album covers for an American heavy metal band and doing artwork for other foreign clients. He now sleeps on the upper bunk in an overcrowded hostel room shared with 19 other people, many of them Russian.
“At least I feel safe here,” added Yuri, who like most of the Russians interviewed asked that only his first name be published, fearing retribution. Eldar, 23, a math tutor from Russia’s Sakhalin Island in the Pacific, blamed many Russians for being too apathetic about the war. “Most people just sit on their sofas and think that if Putin goes, things will get even worse,” he said. “I could not be part of this anymore and have to think about my own future,” he added. That so many Russians took so long to start worrying about the war in Ukraine has infuriated Ukrainians, who have endured seven months of torment and bloodshed. Even now, Russians who fled rarely talk about the war, focusing on their own travails with housing, money and unfamiliar customs. After decades of being treated as Russia’s poor and desperate country cousins, many Kyrgyz, including the country’s president, Sadyr Japarov, are happy to see the shoe on the other foot. “This is a very new phenomenon for us,” Japarov said in an interview. Noting that more than 1 million Kyrgyz worked in Russia, he added that “their citizens can of course come here and work freely” and had no need to fear being extradited home. He said he did not know how many Russian draft dodgers had arrived but added that the influx would help his country, even as it jacks up rents and leads some landlords to evict Kyrgyz tenants to make way for Russians willing to pay double, triple or more. “We don’t see any harm and see lots of benefits,” he said.
In a contrast with Europe’s 2015 migration crisis, involving Syrians, Afghans and others, many of the Russians seeking sanctuary in Kyrgyzstan are highly educated and had good jobs back home, often in tech or culture. Kyrgyzstan and other Central Asian countries have long worried that refugees would pour in from nearby Afghanistan but, said Yan Matusevich, a Russian-born American scholar who is researching migration in Bishkek, “nobody in their wildest dreams ever expected a flood of Russian refugees.” Fleeing Russians, he added, did not want to be regarded like refugees from developing countries, but there were so many of them that international organizations needed to “start thinking about providing a humanitarian response” like those in previous migrant crises. Some of the migrants have lots of money, but others are not affluent or left in such a hurry that they have little more than the clothes on their backs and depend on the charity of locals. In Osh, the country’s second-largest city, a Kyrgyz woman, Dinara, posted her telephone number online and offered to host penniless Russians at her home. “I will be happy to help you. No money needed, meals included,” she wrote, although such generosity is wearing thin as more Russians arrive. The welcome has forced some Russian arrivals to reconsider their country’s self-image as a big-hearted, civilizing force superior to less developed parts of the former Soviet Union.
“It is a vaccination against imperialism to come here and be accepted by the Kyrgyz after the way they have been treated in Moscow, never mind other cities,” said Vasily Sonkin, a 32-year-old Muscovite, referring to the more than 10% of Kyrgyzstan’s population working in Russia, mostly in menial jobs, and often subject to prejudice. What to call the arrivals is still in flux. If Russians do not see themselves as refugees, they also do not want to be called draft dodgers, and there is no sign of the anti-war fervor that gripped young Americans who fled to Canada during the Vietnam War.
A tiny minority support the war but do not want to die fighting it. Dmitry, a tech entrepreneur from Sochi, scoffed at protesters but said he had lost faith in Russia’s direction after the Kremlin agreed to a prisoner swap that set free more than 100 members of Ukraine’s Azov Regiment.
“Putin said the goal of this whole thing at the start was to denazify Ukraine, but then he freed all these Nazis,” he said, parroting Russia’s false propaganda line that Azov is composed of fanatical fascists. He said he was reluctant to leave his wife and daughter behind but saw no point in staying in Russia and risking the draft after vital employees at his company started running away. He can operate his company virtually from Bishkek and, if the war continues, said he would relocate his family. Many Russian exiles prefer to be seen as “relokanty,” a term that originated in Belarus, a brutal dictatorship whose once thriving tech sector offered employees hope of escape through “relocation” abroad with a foreign company. Ermek Myrzabekov, the owner of a Bishkek travel agency and president of Kyrgyzstan’s tourism association, said he had received a flood of requests from companies looking for a place in Central Asia to park Russian male employees. The surge, he added, meant “super profits” for hospitality and airlines but also risked tensions if more Kyrgyz families with children were evicted to make way for Russians. Hotels in Bishkek and Osh, Myrzabekov said, were all “100% fully booked,” a situation that he expected to continue after Putin’s bellicose speech Friday. “Everyone can see that Putin has gone too far already and can’t step back. Russians will be staying here for a long time,” he predicted.
© 2022 The New York Times Company

Turkey, Israel ties warm with naming of ambassador
Menekse Tokyay/Arab News/October 06/ 2022
ANKARA: Turkey has appointed a new ambassador to Israel, as both countries move to end four years in the diplomatic wilderness. Sakir Ozkan Torunlar has been named to fill the role left empty after the two regional powers expelled each other’s ambassadors in 2018 in a row over the killing of 60 Palestinians by Israeli forces during protests on the Gaza border. His appointment comes weeks after Israel named career diplomat Irit Lillian as its new ambassador to Turkey. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was also expected in the coming months to reciprocate a March visit to Ankara by his Israeli counterpart, Isaac Herzog. Contrary to expectations, Torunlar is not a political appointee and is an experienced career diplomat. He was consul-general in Jerusalem and ambassador to Palestine between 2010 and 2014, and was awarded the Order of the Jerusalem Star by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Israel is expected to endorse Torunlar’s appointment. Selin Nasi, a non-resident scholar in Eliamep’s Turkey Program, said that Ankara’s choice was positive for Israel. “Previously, the foreign ministry was planning to appoint Turkey’s pro-government SETA Foundation foreign policy director, Ufuk Ulutas,” she said, who she added was seen in Israel as a “controversial figure” for his “anti-Israeli views” and lacked diplomatic experience. Upcoming domestic elections in both countries had accelerated the reconciliation process, she said. “Given the upcoming parliamentary elections in November, the Israeli side in a way tried to consolidate the process by naming its ambassador in advance, preventing possible interference of domestic politics,” she told Arab News. “Turkey has also entered the election season. The government is trying to balance domestic concerns with its commitment to restoring ties with Israel,” said Nasi. Experts say that Turkey and Israel want to deepen their cooperation in tourism, energy, agriculture, water technology, trade and defense.

Netanyahu leaves hospital after overnight stay
Associated Press/October 06/2022
Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was released from a Jerusalem hospital on Thursday, his party said, a day after he was admitted complaining of chest pains. Netanyahu, 72, was taken to the city's Shaarei Tzedek hospital a day earlier after feeling unwell at synagogue services for the Jewish fasting day of Yom Kippur. He underwent medical exams and stayed overnight for observation. The hospital said his tests results were normal. The former prime minister is now returning to work and already went on his morning walk, his Likud party said, adding that he thanked the hospital's cardiology department and intensive care unit for their help. His hospitalization comes less than a month before Israel holds its fifth national election in under four years. The Nov. 1 election, like the previous four, is focused largely on whether voters believe Netanyahu, who is on trial for corruption charges, is fit to lead the nation.

Rare US airborne raid in Syria kills one
Agence France Presse/October 06/2022
A U.S. airborne operation involving multiple helicopters left one person dead in a government-controlled area of Syria's northeast, Syrian state TV reported Thursday. It is the first such operation in government-held territory, the Britain-based Observatory for Human Rights said, adding that the victim was likely a member of the Islamic State group. "U.S. occupation forces carried out a landing operation using several helicopters in the village of Muluk Saray in the southern countryside of Qamishli and killed one person," Syria's state broadcaster said, without elaborating. The U.S. armed forces' Central Command (CENTCOM) said it currently has "no information to provide."The village targeted lies 17 kilometers (10 miles) south of the city of Qamishli and is controlled by Syrian government forces, according to the Observatory and AFP correspondents. "It is the first time," that U.S. forces conduct such an operation in regime-held areas, the Observatory said. The person killed in the operation "had been a resident of the area for years and is likely an Islamic State" group leader, added the war monitoring group that relies on a wide network of sources in Syria.
Several other people were captured, the monitor said, without providing a figure.
Little-known target
A resident of the village said that three U.S. helicopters carrying troops had landed in the overnight operation. U.S. forces raided a house, killing one person and taking several others captive, the resident told AFP on the condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal. "They used loudspeakers to call on residents to stay indoors" during the operation, the resident said. The resident said the victim is a little-known displaced person from Hassakeh province, whom he named as Abu Hayel. Washington is part of a US-led coalition battling the IS group in Syria. In July, the Pentagon said it killed Syria's top IS jihadist in a drone strike in the northern part of the country. CENTCOM said he had been "one of the top five" leaders of Islamic State overall. The July strike came five months after a nighttime U.S. raid in the town of Atme, which led to the death of the overall Islamic State leader, Abu Ibrahim al-Qurashi. U.S. officials said Qurashi died when he detonated a bomb to avoid capture. After losing their last territory following a military onslaught backed by the U.S.-led coalition in March 2019, the remnants of IS in Syria mostly retreated into desert hideouts. They have since used such hideouts to ambush Kurdish-led forces and Syrian government troops while continuing to mount attacks in Iraq.

N. Korea fires missiles, flies warplanes as it blames US for 'escalation'
Agence France Presse/October 06/2022
North Korea fired two ballistic missiles Thursday and flew warplanes, while claiming its recent blitz of sanctions-busting tests were necessary countermeasures against joint military drills by the United States and South Korea. As the United Nations Security Council met to discuss Pyongyang's Tuesday launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile over Japan, North Korea blamed Washington for "escalating the military tensions on the Korean peninsula."The recent launches -- six in less than two weeks -- were "the just counteraction measures of the Korean People's Army," Pyongyang's foreign ministry said in a statement Thursday. Seoul, Tokyo and Washington have ramped up joint military drills in recent weeks, and carried out fresh exercises Thursday involving a US navy destroyer from the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier's strike group. The United States redeployed the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to waters east of South Korea as part of a broad-ranging military response to Pyongyang's Tuesday test, which also included joint bombing and missile drills. The carrier's redeployment prompted an angry response from the North, with the foreign ministry saying it posed "a serious threat to the stability of the situation on the Korean peninsula."Seoul's military said it had scrambled 30 fighter jets Thursday after 12 North Korean warplanes staged a rare "formation flight north of the inter-Korean air boundary [and] conducted air-to-surface firing drills."Early on Thursday, South Korea's military said it had detected two short-range ballistic missiles launched from the Samsok area in Pyongyang towards the East Sea, also known as the Sea of Japan. It appeared to be the first time North Korea has fired missiles from Samsok, an official from Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff told reporters. He added that they look like a "different type of short-range ballistic missiles" from previous launches. Tokyo also confirmed the launches, with defense minister Yasukazu Hamada telling reporters that it was important not to "overlook the significant improvement of (North Korea's) missile technology." Later Thursday, South Korea's President Yoon Suk-yeol spoke by phone to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, with the pair agreeing that the North's "reckless provocation" must be stopped. They agreed on the need to "deliver a message to the North that consequences follow provocations", Seoul's presidential office said in a statement.
China slams U.S. Pyongyang's Tuesday firing of what officials and analysts said was a Hwasong-12 that travelled likely the longest horizontal distance of any North Korean test, prompted the United States to call for the emergency Security Council meeting. At the meeting, North Korea's longtime ally and economic benefactor China blamed Washington for provoking the spate of launches by Kim Jong Un's regime.
Deputy Chinese ambassador to the U.N. Geng Shuang said North Korea's recent launches were "closely related" to military exercises in the region conducted by the United States and its allies. Geng accused Washington of "poisoning the regional security environment." The launches are part of a record year of weapons tests by isolated North Korea, which leader Kim has declared an "irreversible" nuclear power, effectively ending the possibility of denuclearization talks. U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield called for "strengthening" existing sanctions on North Korea, something China and Russia vetoed in May. The council has been divided on responding to Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions for months, with Russia and China on the sympathetic side and the rest of the council pushing for punishment. Analysts say Pyongyang has seized the opportunity of stalemate at the U.N. to conduct ever more provocative weapons tests. Officials in Seoul and Washington have been warning for months that Pyongyang will also conduct another nuclear test, likely after China's Party Congress on October 16. "At this point, for Kim to turn back and halt provocations would seem counterproductive to his interests, not to mention the amount of resources squandered to conduct these weapons tests," Soo Kim, an analyst at the RAND Corporation, told AFP. "We are indeed in a cycle of weapons provocations. What's left, essentially, is an intercontinental ballistic missile test and potentially the long-awaited seventh nuclear test."

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 06-07/2022
خالد أبو طعمة/معهد جيتستون: الوقائع كلها تؤكد أن الصفقة النووية التي تجهد إدارة بايدن للتوصل إليها مع ملالي إيران تؤمن سيطرة نظامهم الإرهابي ومثيله الروسي على كامل العالم العربي
Biden Administration’s Nuke Deal: Ensuring Russian and Iranian Terrorist Hegemony Over the Whole Arab World
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/October 06/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/112545/khaled-abu-toameh-gatestone-institute-biden-administrations-nuke-deal-ensuring-russian-and-iranian-terrorist-hegemony-over-the-whole-arab-world-%d8%ae%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af-%d8%a3%d8%a8%d9%88-%d8%b7/
US President Joe Biden and his administration have, it appears, decided to sacrifice not only the brave people of Iran now risking their lives in a bid for decent governance, but also the Arabs. This betrayal of longtime allies is taking place, it seems, to appease Russia, ever eager to keep the price of oil at a premium, and its new close ally, Iran.
Russia has been the chief negotiator for the US in the "Iranian nuclear deal" talks; the Americans are not even allowed in the room.
By dropping the two demands [curbing Iranian-backed terrorism in the region and Iran's ballistic missile program], "Biden has practically decided to acquiesce in Iran and its entire terrorist expansion project in the Arab region.... This is a dangerous development. The issue is not whether the agreement is signed or not.... The matter is not limited to these concessions made by Biden; there is something more dangerous than this: Biden has completely abandoned the Arabs, allies and non-allies alike." — Sayed Zahra, deputy editor of the Gulf's Akhbar Al-Khaleej newspaper, August 20, 2022.
"The collapse of this [expansionist] project means the collapse of the regime, similar to the collapse of the Soviet Union." — Lebanese journalist Kheirallah Kheirallah.
"In Iraq, Iran refuses to admit that it is rejected by the majority of the Iraqi people, who expressed this in the last legislative elections. Iran refuses to acknowledge the defeat of its supporters in these elections. We see it currently seeking to overturn the results of those elections, starting with disrupting the formation of a new government and political life in the entire country." — Kheirallah Kheirallah, Lebanese journalist, Annahar, August 17, 2022.
"A return to the nuclear deal will enhance Iran's capabilities because it allows it to interact with the outside world, export oil and gas, and develop sectors of the Iranian economy instead of being under severe and comprehensive punishments.... [Iran] is trying to exploit the current international conditions to develop its military capabilities, nuclear and conventional, and its ballistic missiles, for the sake of regional hegemony." — Hamid Al-Kaifaey, Iraqi author, Sky News Arabia, August 14, 2022.
The Arabs' biggest fear is that this policy will embolden the mullahs to proceed with their plan to "export our revolution" and expand their control over the whole Arab world.
US President Joe Biden's betrayal of longtime Arab allies is taking place, it seems, to appease Russia, ever eager to keep the price of oil at a premium, and its new close ally, Iran. Pictured: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi hold a meeting in Tehran on July 19, 2022.
US President Joe Biden and his administration have, it appears, decided to sacrifice not only the brave people of Iran now risking their lives in a bid for decent governance, but also the Arabs. This betrayal of longtime allies is taking place, it seems, to appease Russia, ever eager to keep the price of oil at a premium, and its new close ally, Iran.
Russia has been the chief negotiator for the US in the "Iranian nuclear deal" talks; the Americans are not even allowed in the room.
The view that the Biden administration is sacrificing its longtime allies, the Arabs, expressed by Sayed Zahra, deputy editor of the Gulf's Akhbar Al-Khaleej newspaper, is shared by many prominent Arab political analysts; they say they are extremely worried about the possibility that the US and other Western powers may sign a new nuclear agreement with Iran's ruling mullahs.
Referring to reports that progress has been achieved towards striking a new deal with the mullahs, Zahra said that the alleged breakthrough appears to have occurred after Biden decided to waive two pre-conditions. He accused Biden of being in collusion with Iran.
"First, Biden decided to waive the demand to include Iran's terrorist role in the region in the talks [in Vienna] and the agreement," Zahra wrote. "Biden decided not to address this issue at all, nor the role of terrorist militias affiliated with Iran in the Arab countries."
The second demand Biden gave up, according to Zahra, includes the issue of Iran's ballistic missile program and the threat it poses to the security and stability of the region and the US itself and its interests.
By dropping the two demands, "Biden has practically decided to acquiesce in Iran and its entire terrorist expansion project in the Arab region," the influential newspaper editor argued.
"This is a dangerous development. The issue is not whether the agreement is signed or not. This is no longer important. The issue is that the Biden administration made its choice between Iran and the Arab countries in this way. The matter is not limited to these concessions made by Biden; there is something more dangerous than this: Biden has completely abandoned the Arabs, allies and non-allies alike."
Veteran Lebanese journalist Kheirallah Kheirallah expressed frustration with the Biden administration for ignoring the mullahs' expansionist project and its tools and proxies, especially the Iranian missile and drone program. "The program poses a threat to every country in the region," Kheirallah wrote.
"This was evident when Iran recently started firing long-range missiles and drones from Yemen towards Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. There is an American and Iranian tendency to conclude a deal that would provide Iran with much-needed funds."
Noting that Tehran's mullahs were mainly interested in the removal of the economic sanctions imposed on their country, Kheirallah wrote that Iran was working to escalate tensions in the Arab countries it occupies: Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon.
The Iranian-backed Houthi militia in Yemen, he added, is continuing to recruit hundreds of fighters. "What will the Houthis do with these fighters?" Kheriallah asked.
"Are they preparing for new rounds of fighting, or is their goal limited to threatening neighboring countries, primarily the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia? The US has failed to reassure its [Arab] allies in the region. When viewing the chronology events in the region since Biden entered the White House, it becomes clear that we are facing a confused administration that could not take any initiative. In light of the lack of confidence [in the Biden administration], a US-Iranian deal will raise all kinds of fears in the absence of any answer to an obvious question: What is the US position on Iran's behavior outside its borders and its missile program and drones?"
In another article, Kheirallah wrote that the Biden administration does not appear to be worried about the security of its Arab allies. This, he said, is the reason why Iran is continuing to flex its muscles to show that its expansionist project has not stopped faltered and that it is determined to take it to the end, regardless of whether or not the mullahs reach a new deal with "the American Big Satan."
The Iranian regime, he wrote, cannot survive without its expansionist project. "The collapse of this project means the collapse of the regime, similar to the collapse of the Soviet Union," Kheirallah said.
"In Lebanon, Iran is flexing its muscles through Hezbollah, which asserts daily that it is the ruling party. In Iraq, Iran refuses to admit that it is rejected by the majority of the Iraqi people, who expressed this in the last legislative elections. Iran refuses to acknowledge the defeat of its supporters in these elections. We see it currently seeking to overturn the results of those elections, starting with disrupting the formation of a new government and political life in the entire country. In Syria, Iran, in light of Russia's preoccupation with the Ukrainian war, has become the number one player in that country. This includes southern Syria, where it is expanding daily and increasing its smuggling activity to Jordan and across it to the Arab Gulf states. But the place where Iran is most active than anywhere else is Yemen. It took advantage of the truce announced last April in order to recruit more fighters. The Houthis, and behind them Iran, are encouraged by the American fluidity in dealing with them. Unfortunately, there is no American administration capable of understanding the meaning and repercussions of the presence of an Iranian entity in the Arabian Peninsula. Iran escalates everywhere it considers itself present through its militias. There is a question that will arise soon: Will the US administration facilitate this escalation through a deal it concludes with the Islamic Republic that provides it with large financial resources? To put it more clearly, does America consider itself concerned with the security of its allies in the region, or should these people manage their own affairs in the way they see fit?" (Annahar, August 17, 2022)
Iraqi author Hamid Al-Kaifaey pointed out that since Joe Biden came to power, his administration has embarked on "vigorous measures" to return to the nuclear agreement with Iran.
"The Democratic administration, whether under former president Barack Obama, or the current president, Joe Biden, adopts the method of diplomatic dealing with Iran and engaging in negotiations with it in order to stop its attempts to build a nuclear bomb, instead of the policy of maximum pressure adopted by the previous Republican administration... Just as the policy of maximum pressure has failed to dissuade Iran from its relentless pursuit of developing its nuclear program, so as to enable it to manufacture a nuclear bomb, the policy of negotiation and diplomacy pursued by the Biden administration has also failed so far to bring Iran back to the nuclear agreement."
The Iraqi writer said he has no doubt that Iran is determined to build an atomic bomb, just as it is determined to develop its other offensive war industries, such as drones and long-range ballistic missiles.
"A return to the nuclear deal will enhance Iran's capabilities because it allows it to interact with the outside world, export oil and gas, and develop sectors of the Iranian economy instead of being under severe and comprehensive punishments... The Iranian economic situation is constantly getting worse, due to the US sanctions imposed by the administration of former President Trump, which President Biden has maintained, and despite that, Iran still considers interference in the affairs of other countries in the region as one of its top priorities. Iranian interference in the affairs of neighboring countries greatly increased after 2015, the year of the nuclear agreement. While the countries of the world are trying to solve their economic problems, reduce the rate of inflation and unemployment and find alternative sources of energy, Iran is ignoring the suffering of its people and their difficult economic conditions, and is trying to exploit the current international conditions to develop its military capabilities, nuclear and conventional, and its ballistic missiles, for the sake of regional hegemony."
Alladdin Touran, member of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, an international opposition organization based in France, warned the Biden administration and the Western powers that it would be a "big mistake" to trust the Iranian regime.
"The most striking thing about the ongoing international negotiations with the Iranian regime regarding its suspicious nuclear program is that the international community has become confident and certain that this regime is lying and engaged in all forms of deception to achieve its goals without meeting international demands... The Iranian regime has engaged in a lot of rhetoric and various childish actions in the ways and methods that it used in the nuclear talks, especially by putting forward demands unrelated to the talks in return for its efforts to remove its terrorist Revolutionary Guard Corps from the list of terrorist organizations. Anyone who relies on the Iranian regime is engaged in self-deception. Western countries have completed more than three decades of practicing the policy of appeasement and alignment with the Iranian regime and provided it with many privileges without getting anything in return. The international community should know that this regime can never abide by any agreement, especially if it is not in its interest and affects its own plans. With or without a nuclear agreement, Iran will not give up its efforts to produce and manufacture the atomic bomb. Confidence in the Iranian regime is a big mistake that must be avoided."
Judging from the reactions of many Arabs to a possible revival of the Iran nuclear deal, perhaps this winter when the US Congress is not in session, it is obvious that America's Arab allies have lost confidence in the Biden administration and its policy of appeasing the mullahs. The Arabs' biggest fear is that this policy will embolden the mullahs to proceed with their plan to "export our revolution" and expand their control over the whole Arab world.
*Khaled Abu Toameh is an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

بهنام بن طالبلو وسعيد قاسمي نجاد/ ناشيونال إنترست: كيف يمكن لبايدن الوقوف مع الشعب الإيراني
How Biden Can Stand With the Iranian People
Behnam Ben Taleblu and Saeed Ghasseminejad/The National Interest/October 06/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/112540/behnam-ben-taleblu-and-saeed-ghasseminejad-the-national-interest-how-biden-can-stand-with-the-iranian-people-%d8%a8%d9%87%d9%86%d8%a7%d9%85-%d8%a8%d9%86-%d8%b7%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a8%d9%84%d9%88-%d9%88/
With the prospect of reform non-existent, the Iranian protests offer Washington a chance to do well by doing good.
These men have not slept for nights.” That’s what Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, the chief of the Islamic Republic’s judiciary, said about Iran’s security forces in a recently leaked video. Despite seeking a quick end to protests rocking the country, the Islamic Republic’s repressive apparatus is yet to win the war of wills against its own people. In another clip, Brig. Gen. Hossein Ashtari, the commander of Iran’s Law-Enforcement Forces (LEF), is seen attempting to boost the morale of his officers by saying that they should “not have a shred of doubt” about the task that lies ahead of them. Already, 133 Iranians have been reportedly killed and over 3,000 have been arrested in demonstrations that have mushroomed across the entire country. But protests continue. Triggered by the morality police’s brutal killing of twenty-two-year-old Mahsa Amini for allegedly violating mandatory veiling laws, the latest iteration of Iran’s street protests both borrows from, and breaks with, the recent past. Unlike the 2009 Green Movement protests, which followed an election being stolen from a reformist candidate, the past half-decade of increasing Iranian protest activity is not tied to any faction or element of the regime. This is made clear in the slogans chanted at the protests, such as “reformists, principlists, the jig is up!”
Instead, these protests build on the critical evolution of demonstrations and labor strikes since 2009 away from reform and toward revolution. Starting in late 2017, Iranians began to take every available opportunity to move from “passive resistance” to active resistance. This was and continues to be done by using economic, environmental, social, and even security issues as a way to contest the Islamic Republic and, in doing so, make a larger political point about Iranians’ desire for a representative government in line with their values and interests. In November 2019, Iranians poured onto the streets in response to high gas prices, but their slogans and aims were not about macroeconomics. While some in the West failed to comprehend this, Iran’s rulers faced no such analysis paralysis. Hiding behind an internet blackout, security forces reportedly killed 1,500 protesters in a matter of days. Yet Iranians turned out to protest less than two months later when the Islamic Republic downed a civilian airliner, killing 176 passengers. Fast forward to 2022, and the anti-regime protests that began this September actually picked up where protests sparked by high food prices this May had left off.
Yet, the increasing frequency, scale, and scope of Iranian political protests, the violence employed against protesters by authorities, and the population’s willingness to push back and continue transgressing redlines are missed in Washington’s nuclear-deal-centric framing of Iran policy. Success for Iran’s protest movement or even the erosion of the Islamic Republic’s power could have profound consequences for stability in the Middle East and redound to America’s strategic advantage if supported correctly and carefully. After all, the Islamic Republic has never been shy about hiding its enmity for America—“the Great Satan”—and its desire to frustrate U.S. policy. This is especially true in the counterterrorism context, given Iran’s material support to terror proxies—styled by Tehran as “the Axis of Resistance”—in places like Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Gaza, as well as through the increasingly relevant paradigm of great power competition, where Tehran is busy tightening economic and military ties with China and Russia. With the prospect of reform non-existent, the Iranian protests offer Washington a chance to do well by doing good. Here’s a ten-point plan to do exactly that.
First, the Biden administration should push away from nuclear negotiations, however indirect, with Tehran centered on resurrecting the 2015 Iran nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). So long as the JCPOA remains on the table, Tehran will know that international pressure will ultimately fade. A nuclear deal that fails to fully and permanently block Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon is, on its best day, a Faustian bargain for American national security. But having that same deal provide a regime like the Islamic Republic with a financial windfall of an estimated one trillion U.S. dollars by 2030 is sheer folly.
Enabling the flow of such funding in exchange for limited and reversible concessions on select elements of Iran’s atomic infrastructure will oil the repressive apparatus that killed Mahsa Amini and her protesting compatriots. It will also permit Tehran to better back its foreign legion, thereby underwriting more, not less, bloodshed in Iran and across the Middle East.
Second, Washington should move to politically isolate the Islamic Republic by pushing for its removal from, or censure in, international organizations while also pressuring allies to sever or downgrade their bilateral diplomatic relations. Lest we forget, there have been a handful of times over the past four decades when European nations recalled their ambassadors from Tehran.
The recent string of demarches, statements, and more by American allies is therefore welcome, but more can be done. There is no reason why, in the aftermath of the brutal killing of Mahsa Amini (as well as many other brave young women in protests), Iran should be permitted to retain its seat cost-free on the Commission on the Status of Women at the UN. Elected to the commission this spring, a regime that treats women as the Islamic Republic does not deserve to be anywhere near such a body.
Moreover, Washington could work with partners to support the establishment, as recommended by Amnesty International’s Secretary General, of an investigative body “by the UN Human Rights Council for the most serious crimes under international law committed by the Iranian authorities.” National governments with evidence of rights violations should be encouraged to submit information to such a body with the aim of developing a baseline international consensus as to what accountability for Iranian rights violators must look like.
Third, following its recent designation of Iran’s morality police and select military commanders for enabling the Islamic Republic’s crackdown, the Biden administration should initiate a mass designations campaign.
Aimed at naming, shaming, and penalizing the Iranian people’s oppressors, these penalties can target vigilante, LEF, Basij paramilitary, or even Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders at the regional and local levels. Elsewhere, penalties can be scaled-up to explore the applicability of sanctions against politicians and officials supportive of the crackdown at the regional and national levels. Most of this culpability can be determined through open sources.
Specifically, sanctions can be ratcheted-up to target Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and President Ebrahim Raisi, both of whom are currently on the Treasury Department’s blacklist, but not for human rights-related offenses. Sanctions can also be extended to other pillars of the regime where there may be a financial or institutional nexus of support to Iran’s apparatus of repression. For example, Iran’s current Minister of Information and Communications Technology is not sanctioned despite his ministry’s involvement in internet restrictions and blackouts during protests.
Yet in 2019, his predecessor was sanctioned for exactly that. The administration should also investigate the applicability of sanctions against select telecommunications and information technology firms and their leadership structures, be they government subsidiaries or government-supported “start-ups.” Doing so can help protect against nefarious actors using cut-outs to take advantage of new licenses and loosening communications restrictions by Washington.
As a corollary, Washington should share targeting information about these entities with its international partners who possess or are developing autonomous sanctions authorities. The mass designation and accountability campaign can then be “multilateralized” against the IRGC, LEF, regime officials, sanctions busters, censors, and others aiding the Islamic Republic’s repression machine. Canada’s recent sanctions against Iran’s morality police are a good example of this, but they must be expanded to include America’s trans-Atlantic partners. Conversely, when there are instances of entities subject to EU penalties that are yet to be targeted using State Department and Treasury Department authorities, Washington should rapidly move to bridge the trans-Atlantic gap.
Fourth, building on the mass designations campaign, the administration should use existing State Department authorities under a 2021 appropriations act to prevent the entry into the United States of Iranian human rights violators and their families. Far from any blanket visa ban that existed under the previous administration, this penalty can first be applied to individuals on the Treasury Department’s blacklist where an evidentiary basis for human rights penalties may already exist. It can then be broadened against new targets. After that, Washington can commence a dialogue with international partners where it has had success in sharing sanctions targeting information to get them to also consider a visa ban against the same persons and their families. The net result would be a widening web or “no-go zone” for Iranian human rights violators and their families. Lastly, should the political appetite and commensurate legal interpretations exist, the administration or Congress could inquire about, within the full extent of the law, revoking visas for family members of the regime elite already in the United States.
Fifth, with international politics and domestic news cycles not slowing down anytime soon, the Biden administration should work to increase its rhetorical support for Iranian protesters and keep the spotlight on the Islamic Republic’s crackdown. Drawing on the playbook employed by his predecessor during protests in 2018 and 2019, Biden and other high-ranking officials can vigorously embrace traditional and social media to amplify their support for the Iranian people and remind demonstrators that Washington stands with them. The more U.S. officials mention the names of the victims of the regime’s repression, the more the Iranian people will know their plight has not been overlooked and forgotten.
Concurrently, members of Congress can and should continue the string of letters, resolutions, tweets, and statements made in support of the Iranian people while also seeking to clarify or improve U.S. policy. Hearings about the administration’s human rights policy toward Iran, amongst others, can also be of assistance.
Sixth, the administration should support efforts to provide the Iranian people access to uncensored internet via satellite. As Iranians increasingly rely on the internet, social media applications, and mobile communications to organize and share the regime’s atrocities with the outside world, the Islamic Republic has improved its domestic cyber capabilities to censor and throttle or blackout the internet. With a reported 80 percent of Iranians already using virtual private networks (VPNs) and anti-filtering technologies prior to the start of the protests, measures to ensure connectivity are now a critical lynchpin.
Reports that Elon Musk is seeking to provide Iranians with Starlink is welcome news. To ramp up the production of Starlink terminals, an Iran Free Internet Fund (or similarly named entity) should be created under public-private auspices to offer Starlink financial support for an Iran-specific acquisition program. Washington can then create an interagency task force to oversee an operation to ensure that Iranians get access to the necessary hardware to make sure Starlink becomes operational, and sustain the costs of funneling this hardware into Iran over time.
In the meantime, the U.S. government task force can help identify and contest regime or pro-regime hacker-led disinformation and hacking efforts to mislead Iranians about the current operational status of Starlink.
Seventh, the latest round of Treasury Department designations against Tehran’s petrochemical and oil smuggling networks raises hopes that at a very minimum, Washington may move towards greater enforcement of the sanctions penalties it has inherited and, until recently, decided to let atrophy. Since May, the Treasury Department has issued these penalties against networks supporting illicit Iranian oil and petrochemical producers, financiers, and shippers to the tune of one sanctions package a month. While these measures have been insufficient to elicit Iranian nuclear concessions or foster a change in behavior, a greater focus on Iran’s petrochemical exports is critical given their importance to the regime.
The administration should make sure relevant agencies are tracking these shipments so that Washington can move to confiscate, wherever possible and within the full extent of the law, illicit Iranian shipments. The funds generated from these sales can not only fund the aforementioned Iran Free Internet Fund, but also underwrite a strike and protest fund akin to what was done for Poland’s Solidarity Movement during the Cold War.
Eighth, the United States and many of its international partners have significant cyber capabilities that can be used to help protesters. In addition to targeting Tehran’s command and control systems from abroad, Washington can help the protesters in their efforts to move from street power to strike power. At present, protesters are facing challenges in sustaining a pincer movement against the regime. Labor strikes are currently ongoing in educational institutions across Iran, but they are slowly moving towards the service sector. Laborers in strategic sectors, such as the energy sector, are now threatening to go on strike. Disrupting the operations of these key sectors could give a much-needed boost to laborers and threaten the regime. Oil strikes were a critical factor that multiplied street power in the 1978-1979 protests that took down the Pahlavi monarchy in Iran.
Ninth, as protesters combat a well-equipped machine of oppression, Washington and its partners are likely already in possession of intelligence through signals and imagery that could possibly be shared with protesters via the Iranian opposition. Specifically, should Basij, IRGC, and LEF bases and command outposts be the subject of monitoring, then information on force deployments from these positions could be useful for Iranian protesters. Tenth, as the Islamic Republic continues its crackdown on Iranians at home, it has been looking abroad to project strength. For the third time since protests began in September, Iran attacked Kurdish positions in northern Iraq.
But unlike the first two days of strikes, on the third day, IRGC ground forces escalated to launch a reported seventy-three ballistic missiles at several locations in Iraqi Kurdistan, killing a reported thirteen people. This marks Iran’s second ballistic missile operation against northern Iraq in 2022, the first being a barrage in March against the home of a Kurdish oil tycoon, which Tehran claimed was an Israeli outpost. The recent operation even took the life of an American citizen, but Tehran has thus far only received condemnation from Washington.
Despite domestic unrest, Tehran has not taken its eye off of the Middle East’s proxy wars. Neither should Washington. In addition to the need to counter Iran’s weapons proliferation and terror funding, a greater kinetic pushback on Iran and its proxies could lead to concurrent and even reinforcing foreign and domestic vectors of pressure on the regime. Over time, this could help elicit or widen fissures among the security establishment, as they may be forced to debate priorities and have to consider reallocating funding, time, political attention, and other resources to each contest.
Ultimately, sustained domestic and foreign cost-imposition to the Islamic Republic can shatter the image of invincibility that it has carefully cultivated among adversaries and allies. At the end of the day, the Iranian people are and will remain the stewards of their own destiny. But three weeks in, one thing is clear: the Iranian people deserve more support. This strategy offers Washington a way to get off the sidelines and show, in ways consistent with American national security interests, that it stands with the Iranian people in practice, not just principle.

The dangers of Europe’s extreme political polarization
Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/October 06/2022
In today’s political landscape, the best way I have found to describe the far right and its leftist equivalent is the following: The supporters of a far-right agenda have nostalgia for a time they have never lived through or known, while the far left have rage and indignation against an oppression they have never suffered from. The far right is dreaming of an old world where family, work and nation were the cornerstones of society — a vision that no longer exists in the West. The far left is rebelling and bringing down old statues and yelling with rage against oppressions that ended centuries ago, such as slavery, and using it to justify the breaking down of current systems and institutions. It is quite a strange situation that resembles the creation of a new virtual reality in politics.
We can clearly notice throughout the West that the divide between the left and the right is becoming wider. Lately, Europe has seen a clear movement toward a bigger representation of right-wing movements and positive election results for right-wing candidates. It is what can be best described as a rise of popular sentiment against “wokeness” and the left’s progressive agenda. This is showing all over Europe. It might have started in Central Europe with Hungary and some neighboring countries, but this shift is now happening almost everywhere. Even France, despite this year’s election results, is witnessing this change. The same applies to the election results in Sweden and finally Italy.
The change in Italy has been marked by a full union or alliance of right-wing parties. There is a clear union with a refusal to be described as extremist groups, and the ballots have been favorable to this change. This might be the biggest difference with France and other countries in Europe, where the right is still fragmented. Until this day, we have been used to an alliance of leftist and green movements that has been able to reap positive results. In France, through the New Ecological and Social People’s Union, the left was able to challenge President Emmanuel Macron’s movement and defeat the right in the last legislative elections without achieving a full majority.
Both sides are completely disconnected, they create their own realities (through social media) and both promise the unachievable
This change has brought, throughout Europe and the West in general, greater violence in the political confrontation between left and right. On both sides, the voices we hear are the extremes, while the voices of reason are being silenced. There is populism on both sides and common sense is being destroyed. The far left and far right both present dangerous choices. When analyzing the situation, we notice both sides are completely disconnected, they create their own realities (through social media) and both promise the unachievable. They share conspiracy theories and create their own stories that their audiences eat up.
If politics should be the art of the possible, it has now become the art of ping pong. There is no real debate or reason. It is about taking the opposite view and, in this game, the left always serves first. “If they are with Ukraine, then we should be with Russia.” “If they are for the vaccines, then we should be against them.” And it goes on and on. One must nevertheless admit that the far-left extremists, who are just as dangerous as those on the right, usually get much better press. Politics boosted by social media has become a mob’s business. More and more, very active small groups are capable of steering the majority to their own will.
And thus, the far left has, in a sense, taken over the agenda of the traditional left. In fact, the right’s political forces are reacting to the left’s actions. The agenda of the far left in the West is — by its own admission — to break and destroy all institutions and the established order and values. This has created fear, especially in a difficult economic and social environment. With a change in the global order, the far right is positioning itself as the last line of defense against this chaos and unknown in an attempt to reestablish order domestically and internationally.
This current situation reminds me of a French political analyst commenting on the election of the first socialist president of the Fifth Republic, Francois Mitterrand, in 1981. He said that this was the end of France as they knew it. He continued by saying that the best way to run a government is to have a right-wing administration with a strong and active counterpower from the left. In this manner, you keep order while also advancing toward a better society.
Thankfully, there are voices of reason on both sides. Unfortunately, they are too decent to be heard or respected. The voices that now lead the debate on both sides are the ones that are the most ferocious. This is in line with the uncertainties the world is going through. Who do you want to defend your interests when things go bad? The nice guy or the ruthless one? This puts Europe in a dangerous and difficult situation, especially with a volatile global geopolitical environment and precarious economic conditions. A full-on confrontation can go beyond virtual reality politics and into the streets.
• Khaled Abou Zahr is CEO of Eurabia, a media and tech company. He is also the editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.

Women, life, and the pursuit of liberty in Iran
Azadeh Pourzand/The Arab Weekly/October 06/2022
Protesters recognise that true freedom in Iran is only attainable if women are free and for that to happen, the Islamic Republic must
The September 16 death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish woman, while in the custody of Iran’s morality police has sparked an unprecedented wave of national anger against the Islamic Republic of Iran and a violent government response.
So far, more than 150 people have been killed, including children, dozens have been wounded and hundreds remain in detention. The regime has also engaged in violent attacks in Kurdistan, including in the Kurdish region of Iraq, where Iranian Kurdish opposition political parties and their families reside.
Zahedan, the capital of the highly-marginalised Sistan and Baluchestan province, has been hit especially hard, with at least 63 people killed when authorities used lethal force to suppress protests after recent Friday prayers.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, while vowing to “steadfastly” investigate Amini’s death after her arrest for “improperly” wearing the mandatory hijab, continues to threaten protesters with further crackdowns and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has blamed the US and Israel for the ongoing protests. And yet, demonstrators remain undeterred.
Today, “Mahsa,” who went by her Kurdish name, Zhina, is synonymous with Iranians’ fight for freedom and liberty. The ongoing protests have evolved into anti-government strikes and boycotts by teachers and university students, intellectuals, even oil workers. The country’s sports and artistic communities have been particularly supportive, as have former political prisoners and others wronged by the regime.
The protests have also generated massive global interest. Despite internet blocks and hashtag filtering, #MahsaAmini has been shared more than 100 million times on Twitter. Iranians in the diaspora have stepped up to show the world that they stand with the Iranian people, organising large demonstrations in 150 cities around the world, with the largest, in Toronto, drawing an estimated 50,000 people.
Many Iranian women, whether at home or abroad, see themselves in Mahsa, victims of gender-based discrimination, repression and cruelty. Most Iranian women, including myself, have been stopped by the regime’s morality police for violating laws against “immodesty and societal vices.” This experience is humiliating and can leave serious emotional, legal and physical scars for those harassed by the authorities.
Like Mahsa, at some point in our life and often repeatedly since a young age, we have all been stopped for “inadequate” wearing of the compulsory Islamic veil. Even a few strands of hair showing from underneath our scarf can bring trouble. Schoolgirls as young as six must wear a veil to school and once a girl turns nine, the Islamic veil becomes mandatory.
It has been heartwarming to see the international response to Iranians’ demands for justice in the wake of Mahsa’s death. Still, I worry that many are missing key contextual elements that are driving the visceral reaction inside my country.
First, while women’s rights are central to today’s protests, gender equality is far from the only demand. The regime itself is under fire, as evidenced by the slogans people are shouting: “Death to the dictator,” “Death to Khamenei,” and “We will take Iran back.” Moreover, anti-regime protests and the regime’s bloody response have precedence in Iran, such as in December 2017 and November 2019.
If Mahsa’s death was the spark for these most recent protests, a Kurdish saying, “Woman, Life, Liberty”, is its fuel. Protesters recognise that true freedom in Iran is only attainable if women are free and for that to happen, the Islamic Republic must go.
Socio-economic concerns, the climate crisis, corruption and widespread political repression are among the myriad reasons why men and children and women who choose to wear the hijab, are protesting alongside those who do not want to.
Second, Iranian women’s objections and protests to the mandatory veil are not new; they are the continuation of a fight against compulsory veil laws and practices that are as old as the Islamic Republic itself. On March 8, 1979, less than two months after the Shah was toppled, huge protests were staged in opposition to Ayatollah Khomeini’s announcement a day earlier that the veil would become compulsory in government offices.
Ever since, grassroots-level resistance has been practiced by generations of Iranian women, fuelled more recently by social media. Over the years, many have been arrested and persecuted for participating in these campaigns or for taking off their scarves in public.
Third, the women’s rights movement in Iran is one of the oldest movements in the country, dating to before the Constitutional Revolution of 1905-1911. Women’s rights advocates have also been among the most active in post-revolutionary Iran. In other words, today’s protests are about more than a piece of fabric; they are pluralistic, just as Iranian society itself.
Finally, there is an unprecedented sense of unity in the protests currently under way and that poses a direct challenge to a regime reliant on a “divide and rule” strategy. The inability to use Syria-like marginalisation tactics to contain the build-up of grievances and anger is causing the regime to lash out aggressively.
Mahsa was a Kurdish guest in Tehran (she was on holiday when she was arrested). Iranian Kurds, one of the country’s largest ethnic groups, are heavily targeted and repressed by the regime and they themselves have a long history of resilience.
Yet, the people of Iran have stood with their Kurdish brothers and sisters. This type of solidarity, which began with the women’s rights movement decades ago, has become ubiquitous. Slogans such as “Kurdistan is not alone” and “Baluchestan is not alone” are being chanted by thousands of Iranian protesters in Iran and abroad.
The death of a young Kurdish woman at the hands of Iran’s morality police has awakened a nation to fight for individual rights and the rights of one another. What comes next in Iran is unclear, though one thing is certain: collective calls for accountability, justice and freedom are reaching a crescendo that the world cannot ignore.
**Azadeh Pourzand is Co-Founder and Executive Director of the Siamak Pourzand Foundation, and a PhD candidate in Global Media and Communications at SOAS University of London.