English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 05/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
No one tears a piece from a new garment and sews it on an old garment; otherwise the new will be torn, and the piece from the new will not match the old
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 05/33-39/:”Then they said to Jesus, ‘John’s disciples, like the disciples of the Pharisees, frequently fast and pray, but your disciples eat and drink.’ Jesus said to them, ‘You cannot make wedding-guests fast while the bridegroom is with them, can you? The days will come when the bridegroom will be taken away from them, and then they will fast in those days.’ He also told them a parable: ‘No one tears a piece from a new garment and sews it on an old garment; otherwise the new will be torn, and the piece from the new will not match the old. And no one puts new wine into old wineskins; otherwise the new wine will burst the skins and will be spilled, and the skins will be destroyed. But new wine must be put into fresh wineskins. And no one after drinking old wine desires new wine, but says, “The old is good.””.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 04-05/2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 04-05/2022

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 04-05/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 04-05/2022
Depositors Storm 4 Lebanese Banks, Demanding Their Own Money
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 4 October, 2022
Lebanese depositors, including a retired police officer, stormed at least four banks in the cash-strapped country Tuesday after banks ended a weeklong closure and partially reopened.
As the tiny Mediterranean nation's crippling economic crisis continues to worsen, a growing number of Lebanese depositors have opted to break into banks and forcefully withdraw their trapped savings. Lebanon's cash-strapped banks have imposed informal limits on cash withdrawals. The break-ins reflect growing public anger toward the banks and the authorities who have struggled to reform the country's corrupt and battered economy. Three-quarters of the population has plunged into poverty in an economic crisis that the World Bank describes as one of the worst in over a century. Meanwhile, the Lebanese pound has lost 90% of its value against the dollar, making it difficult for millions across the country to cope with skyrocketing prices. Ali al-Sahli, a retired officer who served in Lebanon’s Internal Security Forces, raided a BLC Bank branch in the eastern town of Chtaura, demanding $24,000 in trapped savings to transfer to his son, who owes rent and tuition fees in Ukraine.
“Count the money, before one of you dies,” al-Sahli said in a video he recorded with one hand while waving a gun in the other.
According to Depositors’ Outcry, a protest group, al-Sahli said he had offered to sell his kidney to fund his son’s expenses after the bank for months blocked him from transferring money. With his son owing months of rent and tuition, the retired officer reached out to the protest group for help.
In the video he filmed on his cellphone, al-Sahli waved a handgun, threatening to shoot, if bank employees didn’t oblige. Employees struggled to calm him down, as protesters from the depositors group and bystanders watched from outside.
Al-Sahli was unable to retrieve any of his money, and security forces arrested him.
In the southern city of Tyre, Ali Hodroj broke into a Byblos Bank branch, demanding about $40,000 of his trapped savings to pay outstanding loans. He held a handgun and fired a warning shot, as security forces encircled the area. Hodroj retrieved about $9,000 in Lebanese pounds, following negotiations, with the head of a depositors advocacy group mediating.
Hassan Moghnieh, head of the Association of Depositors in Lebanon, told The Associated Press that Hodroj's family retrieved the money before he turned himself in to police outside the branch.
In Hazmieh near the Lebanese capital, former Lebanese Ambassador to Türkiye Georges Siam entered an Intercontinental Bank of Lebanon demanding some of his locked savings. The branch staff shuttered its doors while Siam continued to negotiate with management.
And in the northern city of Tripoli, workers from the Qadisha Electricity Co. broke into a local First National Bank branch protesting banks deducting fees from their delayed salary payments. The army arrived at the site in Tripoli and patrolled the area.
Some depositors' protest groups, including the Depositors' Outcry, have supported the break-ins and vowed to continue doing so.
“We're sending a message to the banks that their security measures won't stop the depositors, because these depositors are all struggling,” Depositors' Outcry media coordinator Moussa Agassi told the AP. “We're trying to tell the bank owners to try to find a solution, and beefing up security measures isn't going to keep them safe.”The general public has commended the angry depositors, some even hailing them as heroes, most notably Sally Hafez, who stormed a Beirut bank branch with a fake pistol and gasoline canister to take some $13,000 to fund her 23- year-old sister's cancer treatment. Siam was among those who praised her. “We need more of that,” he said in a tweet last month. “The lady is a hero. God bless her.”The banks, however, have condemned the heists, and urged the Lebanese government to provide security personnel.
The Association of Banks in Lebanon in a statement Tuesday said the government is primarily responsible for the financial crisis, and that the banks have been unjust targets. The banks in the statement urged the government to swiftly enact reforms and reach an agreement with The International Monetary Fund for a bailout program. The ABL in late September shuttered for one week after at least seven depositors stormed into branches and forcefully took their trapped savings that month, citing security concerns. The banks last week partially reopened a handful of branches, only welcoming commercial clients with appointments into their premises. Lebanon meanwhile has been struggling to restructure its financial sector and economy to reach an agreement with The International Monetary Fund for a bailout. The IMF has criticized Lebanese officials for their slow progress.

Shea tells Bou Saab of need for fast response to Hochstein proposal
Naharnet/October 04/2022
Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab met Tuesday in parliament with U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea. Bou Saab briefed the ambassador on the outcome of the talks that were held Monday in Baabda over the sea border demarcation file and on the final remarks that were presented by the Lebanese side regarding U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein’s final proposal. Shea for her part stressed the need to speed up the finalization of the Lebanese response, adding that her country is keen on wrapping up the file as soon as possible.

Banks Association blames state for crisis, calls for dialogue with depositors
Naharnet/October 04/2022  
The Association of Banks in Lebanon on Tuesday blamed the state and the central bank for the country’s “extended systemic crisis,” while calling on depositors to engage with it in dialogue, after five banks were stormed in less than 48 hours in a new wave of bank heists. Criticizing the state for “passing budgets, spending and wasting funds, and declaring a default,” ABL said that the central bank is also responsible after it implemented the policies of the successive governments. Adding that banks “have borne and are still bearing repercussions that exceed any responsibility for them in this extended systemic crisis,” ABL said that the banks are “willing to contribute to finding a legal and fair solution that should be sponsored by the state as soon as possible.” “Unifying efforts to demand that the public sector return the deposits is what’s needed… and the Association of Banks calls for a frank dialogue between depositors and banks to demand the recovery of the private sector funds wasted by the state,” ABL added. “We call on the state to immediately shoulder its responsibilities and listen to all parties concerned, especially ABL and the depositors, in order to find the appropriate and possible solutions for dealing with the extended systemic crisis in the country and its dangerous repercussions that have affected everyone,” the Association urged.

More details emerge about government reshuffle
Naharnet/October 04/2022  
Several caretaker ministers have requested not to be part of the new government, LBCI television said. “Telecom Minister Johnny Korm has informed PM-designate Najib Mikati of this, proposing the name of Ziad al-Jalfoun to be his successor, and he has informed the Marada Movement of his decision,” LBCI quoted informed sources as saying. “Finance Minister Youssef Khalil has also told Mikati that he does not want to assume any ministerial portfolio in the coming government, and should Khalil be changed he will be replaced by Yassine Jaber as has become known,” the sources added. “As for the economy and displaced ministries, Mohammed Kanj has been proposed as a replacement for Economy Minister Amin Salam and he hails from Akkar. However, the obstacle remains over the Ministry of the Displaced, and the Progressive Socialist Party has not been informed of any candidate to replace Issam Sharafeddine,” the sources went on to say.

Mikati vows to form govt. despite 'many obstacles, conditions'
Naharnet/October 04/2022  
Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati on Tuesday pledged to “carry on with the new government formation process” despite the “many obstacles” that he said are being put in his way. Mikati also lamented that there are “conditions and suggestions aimed at creating a de facto situation during the most dangerous phase of our history.” “We are determined to continue working in line with the obligations of the constitution and the national interest, and no one will be allowed to sabotage or obstruct the constitutional course,” Mikati added. And hoping parliament will be able to elect a new president for the republic within the constitutional timeframe, the premier warned that “the challenges require the complete presence, cooperation and integration of the constitutional institutions.”Mikati also decried that the 1989 Taef Accord is facing “non-innocent campaigns.”

Lebanon agreement: Israel gives up its piece of the pie - analysis
Lahav Harkov/Jerusalem Post/October 04/2022
Why is Israel giving up the entire zone in dispute - something concrete - in exchange for theoretical promises and things it already has?
Israel and Lebanon have been in an ongoing dispute for the past decade over the economic rights to an area of the Mediterranean Sea shaped like a slice of pizza. Israel is giving up the entire zone in dispute - something concrete - in exchange for theoretical, amorphous promises and things it already has.
Israel's security needs
Prime Minister Yair Lapid presented the deal on Twitter on Monday as giving Israel “100% of its security needs, 100% of the Karish Reservoir and even part of the earnings of the Lebanese reservoir.” When Lapid says “security needs,” he is referring to several things. The most solid security benefit of the deal is recognition of the “buoy line,” a 5-km-long row of floating obstructions extending from the point along the Mediterranean Sea at which Israel and Lebanon meet. The buoys help secure the northernmost points on Israel’s shores. The agreement is supposed to include recognition of that line and get the UN Interim Force in Lebanon off of Israel’s back about it. However, the “buoy line” has never been a huge issue, even if Lebanon or UNIFIL would occasionally kvetch. And having the Lebanese government sign an agreement with the US - they’re not co-signing anything with Israel - doesn’t do much for Israel’s security, because the threat from Lebanon is not the Lebanese Army as much as it is Hezbollah. And since when does Hezbollah care about international agreements?
Why is Israel willing to compromise?
The other security advantage of the deal that Lapid presented is that by helping Beirut become a natural gas exporter and improve its economy, it will “will weaken Lebanon’s reliance on Iran, will restrain Hezbollah and will bring regional stability.” That is a theory that is a frequently-heard refrain in Israel’s security establishment when it comes to the Palestinians: Give them something to lose, and they will behave more peacefully to protect it. The theory shouldn’t be knocked entirely, but historically, its results for Israel have been mixed. As such, this can only be hope for the deal, not an achievement or result improving Israel’s security at this point. What Lapid understandably does not want to admit, but gave away in his remarks about Israel retaining 100% of the Karish Reservoir, is that this deal is trying to buy quiet from Hezbollah. As talks between Israel and Lebanon advanced earlier this year and Karish licensee Energean set up a gas rig, the Iran-backed terror group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, grew bolder in his threats against the Israeli natural gas field, even sending drones - which Israel shot down - to fly over it. Throughout, Lapid, Energy Minister Karin Elharrar and their ministries insisted that Karish is not up for negotiation. But now Lapid is presenting its retention as an achievement of the talks. In other words, for Lapid, the talks were, in fact, about protecting Karish, and like governments led by former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu allowing suitcases full of cash to be sent into Gaza to buy temporary quiet from Hamas, Lapid was willing to take a calculated risk and pay a price to try to put Karish out of Hezbollah’s sights. Lapid also mentioned in his tweet that Israel would get “part of the earnings of the Lebanese reservoir.” The Kana gas field juts out beyond the pizza-slice disputed area into Israeli waters, coming very close to Karish. It is within “Line 29,” a broader disputed area - a wider slice of pizza - that Lebanon put on the table in early 2021, which Israel rejected and was never the actual basis of negotiations. As former US ambassador to Israel David Friedman described it on Twitter, the not-yet-extant royalties deal would mean “that Israel gets royalties only on drilling within its own sovereign territory - that’s beyond the scope of the maritime dispute with Lebanon.” Israel is negotiating to get paid for what is already rightfully Israel’s. In addition, due to the ongoing dispute, Lebanese licensee Total Energy has never actually been able to check if and how much hydrocarbons are in Kana. The estimate is that it is a small-to-medium reservoir, but there remains a chance that Israel will get little to nothing in terms of economic compensation. Israeli negotiators were wise enough not to rely on Lebanon, an enemy state with a failed economy, to pay up. The Energy Ministry is still working out a deal with Total for the French-owned company to pay Israel for the percentage of the area that is in Israeli waters. And then there’s the very fact that Israel is conceding the entire area in dispute.
Former Energy Minister Steinitz attacks the deal
“The way things look matters,” former Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz, of Netanyahu’s Likud Party, told The Jerusalem Post this week, and he argued that it looks like Israel is a pushover. As energy minister when renewed negotiations took place in 2020 and early 2021, Steinitz was in favor of negotiating with Lebanon to allow both sides to move forward and develop their gas fields and noted that opposing the outcome of the deal is not the same as opposing the talks when they were ongoing.  Steinitz recounted that, in 2012, the US first attempted to negotiate the maritime line issue, proposing the “Hoff Line,” which would have given Lebanon 55% of the pizza slice and Israel 45%, with each able to extract gas on their own side. The former minister was willing to be flexible and for Israel to take as little as one-third of the disputed zone when he was the minister. “What kind of negotiation is it if they get 100% and we get zero?” Steinitz asked. “That is wrong and it’s a dangerous precedent.” Israel is involved in negotiations with Cyprus over the Aphrodite-Yishai gas reservoir, as well, 10-12% of which is in Israeli waters. Cyprus already had a firm stance in the talks, and the result of the Lebanon negotiation could indicate to Nicosia that they can get Israel to give up. Meanwhile, Lapid and his associates have tried to paint a rosy picture of the deal, with only advantages. “Lebanon is not getting 100% of what it wanted,” a senior diplomatic source said on Sunday, praising the deal in fainter terms than he had probably intended. It’s understandable that politicians don’t want to present the weaknesses of their policies, especially less than a month before an election. But the fact that Israel is giving up its piece of the pizza pie is too obvious to obfuscate with political spin.

Lebanon requests 'amendments of specific sentences' in response to Hochstein
Agence France Presse/October 04/2022
Lebanon has requested "amendments of specific sentences" in its response to U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein’s latest and final proposal, a Lebanese official involved in the negotiations said. The remarks include "amendments of specific sentences so that there is no room for misunderstanding," the official added. The official spoke to AFP on the condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to comment on the issue. Lebanon said Monday it will send remarks to Washington's proposal to resolve a maritime border dispute with Israel over gas-rich waters. The draft agreement floated by Hochstein aims to settle competing claims over offshore gas fields and was delivered to Lebanese and Israeli officials at the weekend, following years of indirect negotiations. On Monday, Lebanon's top leaders met to discuss the offer, delivered via Washington's ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea. Crisis-hit Lebanon, which is grappling with its worst-ever financial downturn, will send its notes on the offer by "Tuesday at the latest," and hopes to receive a response "before the end of the week," Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab told reporters. "We are not giving an official response but delivering an answer to the proposal with... remarks that we have," he added. Bou Saab, tasked by President Michel Aoun to oversee U.S.-mediated negotiations, did not elaborate on Lebanon's feedback but said it included notes on "legal and logical" issues. Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati, who also spoke after the meeting, said that "things are on the right track."Washington's offer has not been made public, but it has raised prospects for a deal that could help Lebanon explore potential gas wealth that the debt-ridden country desperately needs.
'Important step'
Lebanon and Israel are officially at war and their land border is patrolled by the United Nations. They reopened negotiations on their maritime border in 2020, but the process was stalled by Lebanon's demand that the map used by the U.N. in the talks be modified.
The negotiations resumed in early June after Israel moved a production vessel near the Karish offshore field. The latest proposal by Washington was welcomed by both Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah, a major player in Lebanon that considers Israel its arch-enemy. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who had repeatedly threatened Israel with attacks if it proceeds with extraction in disputed areas before a deal is reached, said developments at the weekend were "a very important step."Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid also welcomed the agreement, which he said grants Israel full claim over the disputed Karish field as well as profits from the nearby "Sidon reservoir", known as the Qana field, which will fall to Lebanon. Lapid said: "Israel gets 100 percent of its security needs, 100 percent of Karish and even some of the profits from the Lebanese reservoir."But Aoun on Monday said "there will be no partnership with Israel," while Bou Saab insisted Lebanon will have "full rights over Qana."In the event that a final agreement is reached, Lebanon will not sign a treaty with Israel, Bou Saab said. Instead, a mechanism will be put in place to register the demarcation with the United Nations. Lebanon is currently grappling with its worst ever financial crisis, and fuel shortages have ground the country to a halt in recent months. With a bankrupt state unable to deliver more than an hour or two of mains electricity a day, individuals, businesses and institutions have relied almost entirely on diesel-powered generators. Lebanese politicians hope that commercially viable hydrocarbon resources off Lebanon's coast could help lift the country out of crisis.

Lebanon opposes parts of proposed maritime agreement with Israel -report
Jerusalem Post/October 04/2022
Lebanon has three major issues with the agreement proposed by Israel. * Lapid will not agree to compromise on the security and economic interests of the State of Israel.
Lebanon is opposing several clauses in the draft agreement with Israel on the maritime border, according to Lebanese media. According to the reports, Lebanon will present its response to the American envoys, which may be an obstacle to the signing of the agreement. The Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar reported that the country would refuse to grant Israel the right to search for gas in the disputed territory. According to an official in the Prime Minister's Office, Lapid will not agree to compromise on the security and economic interests of the State of Israel. "We are waiting to receive the comments officially from authorized parties so that we know if and how to move forward," the official said. According to Lebanese reports, Lebanon has three major issues with the agreement proposed by Israel. First, Lebanon allegedly does not accept the "security strip" proposed by Israel and flatly refuses to "establish a security zone for the enemy." The buoy line, which is not currently recognized, will remain as it is. The second objection is the idea of demarcating the continental borders, and the refusal to conduct negotiations on these borders within the current agreement. Lebanese officials further stated that "negotiations of this type will be subject to discussion only with the UN, as it is happening now in the negotiations on the marking of the maritime borders." "Negotiations of this type will be subject to discussion only with the UN, as it is happening now in the negotiations on the marking of the maritime borders."Third, according to Lebanese reports, Lebanon rejected any attempt to tie the work of the "Total Energy" company to Israel, and wants the company to be related to the direct needs of Lebanon, committed to the work of drilling exploration in Lebanese territory, independent of any discussion with Israel. The country also announced the desire for the "Total" company to start operating at the same time as the work in the Karish field. Another issue Lebanon has presented is holding an official ceremony in Ankara, "as the Israeli and American sides want," the Al-Akhbar newspaper claimed. The newspaper stated that "in case of agreement, Lebanon will sign the letter, which will be delivered to the UN representative in the presence of the American mediator, and this will happen in a separate room from the room where the Israeli delegation is located. Only after that, the US will be able to inform Israel that the agreement has been signed and will come into effect immediately." Three key principles presented by Israel. The comments from Lebanon were reported after the agreement that was taking shape had already been published, in which three key principles were supposed to be determined. The first of these is the recognition of the Israeli security line - the buoy line, which was never confirmed, is now proposed to be recognized officially. The line has never been enshrined in law until now, being decided by a unilateral decision, the meaning of approving it as such is to treat it as the territorial border line with Israel. Another principle in the emerging agreement allows Israel to reach compensation for its rights in the territory it possesses - when the Lebanese will pay for the part of the Kana gas field that is in Israeli territory. The third part of the agreement states that an economic agreement should be reached within the disputed area and not outside of it, allowing the Lebanese to hold rights to the reservoir up to the southern line of the disputed area - line 23, not 29 as they demanded.

Chances of Hezbollah war 'still remain very high' - US envoy
Mike Wagenheim/Senior U.S. Correspondent, i24NEWS/October 04, 2022
Israel-Lebanon maritime border proposal 'does nothing to lower or alleviate tensions along the blue line'
Former US assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker told i24NEWS that the chances of an Israeli-Hezbollah confrontation "still remain very high" despite the advancement of a US-brokered maritime border agreement between Israel and Lebanon. The proposal "does nothing to lower or alleviate tensions along the blue line where Hezbollah is digging in," Schenker said in an interview with i24NEWS senior US political correspondent Mike Wagenheim that aired Tuesday. The New Jersey native served in the position during the administration of former US president Donald Trump from 2019 to 2021, during which he was assigned as the point man on the Israel-Lebanon maritime border negotiations. The current draft proposal was formed under the mediation of the State Department’s senior advisor for energy security, Amos Hochstein. Schenker said that it appeared that Israel agreed to give the Lebanese "100 percent" of what they wanted, while pointing out that the Qana gas field that would be under control of Lebanon contains "very little reserves." He said that the administration of US President Joe Biden can claim a foreign policy win with the deal and a success in promoting regional stability, while cautioning that questions still remain about long-term calm. "I think the United States, even the Biden administration, is doing this out of a desire to help stabilize the region, although it is unclear if it will be the outcome."

Jumblat: Mouawad not confrontation candidate but Franjieh is
Naharnet/Tuesday, 4 October, 2022 
Progressive Socialist Party chief Walid Jumblat said overnight that he does not consider MP Michel Mouawad to be a confrontational presidential candidate. “I do not consider Michel Mouawad a confrontation candidate. He is the son of Taef (Accord’s) martyr Rene Mouawad, and we want a president who would address the main controversial topics through dialogue. (Hezbollah’s) arms are one of these topics for example and the file should be tackled through a defense strategy,” Jumblat said in an interview on LBCI TV.
“We will continue to back Michel Mouawad… but the question is will they accept Mouawad as a consensus president?” Jumblat added. “The scene in parliament was shameful at a time the majority of the Lebanese people are on the brink of collapse, and it seems that the March 8 camp has no candidate,” the PSP leader went on to say. He added: “I don’t believe that Hezbollah with all its capabilities can bear further economic collapse and the Free Patriotic Movement is standing between it and Suleiman Franjieh. Let us see what their conditions are, knowing that there are no objective discussions with the FPM.”Jumblat added that Franjieh is “nothing but confrontation and challenge candidate.”As for the controversy over Hezbollah’s arms, Jumblat said: “Lebanon needs Hezbollah for defense, but what’s required is to have a single defense system under the authority of the Lebanese state, and this would later be translated in the defense strategy.”

Karama Beirut Film Festival highlights reconciliation in run-up to UN Day
Naharnet/Tuesday, 4 October, 2022
The Karama Beirut Human Rights Film Festival (KBHRFF) kicked-off on Sunday evening at Sunflower Theater in Tayyouneh, Beirut, under the theme “The First Gate” in the run-up to the United Nations Day, which is the day the organization celebrates its establishment when the U.N. Charter entered into force on 24 October 1945. Organized by NGO “Art Factory 961,” the festival, held in partnership with the United Nations Information Center in Beirut (UNIC Beirut), the Embassy of the Czech Republic in Lebanon and Umam Documentation & Research organization witnessed the participation of a group of actors, actresses, directors, students and a number of local, regional and international media outlets and was an opportunity for the audience to meet international filmmakers and share experiences. KBHRFF Director Haytham Chamass believes that the festival in its sixth session this year is distinguished by “the fact that it was successfully organized, and we managed to host international directors despite all challenges resulting from the financial and economic crises that Lebanon is reeling under.” “Organizing this festival in partnership with UNIC Beirut in the run-up to U.N. day is an important step that the festival is taking to re-assure its support for human rights and peace in Lebanon, the region, and globally,” he adds. Over three days, the festival features six films, including five long documentaries and one short feature, with some panel discussions with directors. Chamass believes the panel discussions to be “very useful since they pave the way for the audience to reflect on the films.” The films featured in the festival came from various countries, including: Jordan, Libya, Czech Republic, Ireland, Poland, Denmark, Germany and Peru.
The festival focuses on the importance of reconciliation in moving towards a more peaceful and just society for everyone by presenting films that shed light on individuals who experienced violence in the past or are experiencing it in the present. It also presents films that discuss the effects of war, such as displacement, and documents personal and collective attempts to put an end to injustice and violence. “The crisis that Lebanon is witnessing pushed us to think about ways that led to this situation, and we found that missing the step of reconciliation with the past obstructed the improvement of Lebanon and its people; therefore, we chose this title to raise awareness on the importance of this step to build a better present and a better future.”The opening ceremony involved the screening of “Young Plato,” a film that received several international awards and that is directed by Irish director Dilan McGrath, who visited Lebanon for the first time to participate in the festival. The film sheds light on the importance of independent thinking in resolving conflicts, especially in regions that witnessed wars such as Northern Ireland. By focusing on the importance of philosophy in the lives of children, “Young Plato” presents a model for building a peaceful culture in hard times. The film was followed by a Q and A session. Attracted by the theme “The First Gate” and the relevance of the issue of reconciliation to Lebanon, several local actors attended the festival. Abdelrahim Awji from Lebanon considered that “reconciliation is an essential step for building a more stable and peaceful present and future, and that it starts from reconciling with oneself.” He adds: “everyone has to admit their mistakes to be able to build a healthy relationship with their surroundings and communities.”
For her part, Lebanese actress and Head of Shams NGO Bernadette Houdeib said “reconciliation with oneself is essential for building peaceful societies, and this is one of the essential requirements at the moment given the wars and crises that we have been witnessing since the COVID-19 pandemic.”
“U.N. support to such festivals is essential but we also need the Lebanese government’s support to cultural issues for a healthy social life.” Polish Director Hanna Polak who is participating in the festival through her film “Angels of Sinjar” mentions that “reconciliation starts with holding the ones who committed crimes accountable, while the next step is understanding past events and learning from them.” In her film, Polak highlights the story of Hanifa, a young Yazidi girl who survived an attack by ISIS on a religious and ethnic Yazidi minority group in Sinjar, northern Iraq. Polak, who was nominated to Emmy and Oscar awards, documented Hanifa’s experience trying to find her three sisters abducted by ISIS.
The festival concludes today with the screening of “Angels of Sinjar,” which will be followed by a discussion with Polak and Hanifa. The closing ceremony will also involve a panel discussion entitled, “The Fourth Perspective: Narrating MENA Prisons from Beirut.” The session sheds light on the importance of merging art, academia, and advocacy work while debating cultures and histories of incarceration in the MENA region. A group of university students majoring in journalism and filmmaking volunteered in organizing the festival. “Volunteering at this festival was a chance to practice the skills that I have learned at university including photography and writing short news. This occasion was also a chance for me to network with journalists and activists around filmmaking and media in Beirut,” said Charbel Tamer, a journalism student at the American University of Science and Technology (AUST) in Beirut.

Lebanese suspect held as Liberia seizes $100 million of cocaine
Agence France Presse/Tuesday, 4 October, 2022
Liberian authorities have said that they have seized some $100 million worth of cocaine, with help from the United States' international narcotics agency. Liberian Justice Minister Musa Dean told reporters the national Drug Enforcement Agency, with help from the Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, had made the seizure Saturday in Topoe village, a western suburb of the capital Monrovia. The operation led "to the seizure of $100 million worth of pure cocaine," he said. A Guinea-Bissau national and a Lebanese suspect were arrested, he added. The drug agency could not confirm reports shared on social media that the drug had been stored in frozen fish containers. It said the investigation was ongoing. Drug enforcement agency chief Marcus Zehyoue said "a full-scale investigation" was underway along with a search for accomplices who escaped capture. The U.S. embassy in Liberia congratulated the Liberian authorities on the drug haul, saying in a statement that it was the result of swift joint action. "The success of this operation is the direct result of excellent communication between law enforcement agencies around the world, including Brazil, the United States, and Liberia, among others," it added.

جاك خوري وجوناثان/هآرتس: طبقاً للتقارير فإن لبنان سيرفض المطالب الإسرائيلية بمنطقة أمنية بحرية
Lebanon to Reportedly Refuse Israeli Demand for Maritime Security Zone
Jack Khoury and Jonathan/Haaretz/October 04/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/112471/jack-khoury-and-jonathan-haaretz-lebanon-to-reportedly-refuse-israeli-demand-for-maritime-security-zone-%d8%ac%d8%a7%d9%83-%d8%ae%d9%88%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d9%88%d8%ac%d9%88%d9%86%d8%a7%d8%ab%d8%a7%d9%86/
The Lebanese government said it will not agree to establish any security zone within its maritime border nor give up any territory.
With a deal appearing imminent, Lebanon reportedly stresses it will not hold any signing ceremony with Israel, while a source says Lapid ‘will not compromise’ on the country’s security and economic interests.
The Lebanese government said it will not agree to establish any security zone within its maritime border nor give up any territory at sea, Lebanon’s Al-Akhbar newspaper reported on Tuesday, in reference to a section in the U.S. proposal regarding the regulation of the maritime border between Israel and Lebanon. An Israeli government official said in response to the Lebanese report that Prime Minister Yair Lapid “will not agree to compromise the security and economic interests of the State of Israel. We are waiting to receive the comments officially from competent authorities in order for us to know if and how to move forward.”Another report in Al-Akhbar clarified that Lebanon’s government does not recognize Israel’s ‘buoy line’ – a 5 kilometer long buffer zone that stretches from the beach into the Mediterranean Sea sitting slightly north of the proposed maritime border – marked by Israel for security purposes.
The American proposal will be based on Line 23, which is located north of the maximal version that the Lebanese put forward some years ago. The Karish gas field is located southwest of the line, meaning that it will remain under complete Israeli control. The northeastern field, Kana, will go to the Lebanese. Israel might receive compensation in return for Lebanon’s use of a small part of the gas field in its territory.
Additionally, it was also reported that Lebanon will not agree to hold an official signing ceremony for the agreement, as the U.S. and Israel want. According to the publication, if there is an agreement, it will be delivered to the UN representative in the presence of the American mediator Amos Hochstein in a room without an Israeli representative, and after signing on the Israeli side the agreement will enter into force immediately.
Satellite images show gas rig in Israeli territory, not in disputed zone with Lebanon
Neither Lebanon nor Israel want war over gas-drilling rig. Or do they?
Even if Israel agrees to a border deal, energy riches are distant dream for Lebanon
It was also reported that the Lebanese government will not negotiate the demarcation of the land border, and any discussion on the issue will require UN involvement.
Al-Akhbar further reported that the Lebanese government will not agree to link the drilling contract it signed with the French company Total Energy in its offshore territory with Israel. The drilling will be carried out according to the interests and needs of Lebanon, regardless of the drilling taking place in the Karish gas field. If both countries approve the agreement, it will be passed to the United Nations in order to be validated according to international law.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has threatened on numerous occasions this summer to target Israeli drilling operations, on the grounds that Israel was infringing on Lebanon’s maritime rights. However, Nassrallah said on Saturday that the Lebanese government will make the ultimate decision on the dispute over a maritime border with Israel.
In July, the IDF downed four Hezbollah drones in the area of the offshore field, on two separate occasions. They are thought to have carried cameras, not explosives, but their launch was interpreted as a threat against Israel.
The division will enable Lebanon to finally start to exploit its gas potential. The Lebanese economy is in dire needs of this injection of encouragement, and the hope in Jerusalem is that the positioning of two platforms opposite each other will bring about long-term restraint in the northern arena.
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2022-10-04/ty-article/.premium/lebanon-will-refuse-a-maritime-security-zone-between-israel/00000183-a22c-d8cc-afc7-feec7e3c0000

Israel-Hezbollah deal slammed as ‘shameful surrender’ to Iran-backed terror
Critics of the pending deal have panned it as a dangerous capitulation to Iran’s terror proxy.
World Israel News Staff/October 04/2022
Israel and Lebanon are on the cusp of signing a U.S.-brokered deal to resolve a maritime border dispute, a move that has been hailed by Hezbollah’s terror chief and slammed by critics as deeply flawed.
Hassan Nasrallah on Saturday said that Lebanon would be the ultimate decision-maker regarding the U.S.-drafted agreement, which he said was “positive.”
Prime Minister Yair Lapid said the proposal safeguards Israel’s security-diplomatic interests, as well as its economic interests.
“Money will flow into the state’s coffers and our energy independence will be secured. This deal strengthens Israel’s security and Israel’s economy,” he said at the start of the weekly cabinet meeting on Sunday.
“We do not oppose the development of an additional Lebanese gas field, from which we will of course receive the share we deserve. Such a field will weaken Lebanon’s dependence on Iran, restrain Hezbollah and promote regional stability,” he went on.
The deal would pave the way for the extraction and production of energy from the offshore Karish gas field, which has been the subject of a fierce disagreement over the two nations’ maritime borders.
However, critics have slammed the deal as surrendering to Hezbollah, with opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu saying Israel was gifting millions to the Iran-backed terror group.
“Lapid shamefully surrendered to Nasrallah’s threats,” Netanyahu said. “He is giving Hezbollah sovereign territory of the State of Israel with a huge gas reservoir.”
“He did it without discussion in the Knesset and without a referendum. Lapid has no mandate to hand over territory and sovereign revenues to an enemy state,” he added.
Professor Eugene Kontorovich, director of international law at the Kohelet Policy Forum, told World Israel News that Lapid’s caretaker government was “engaging in a going out of business sale on sovereign Israeli territory.”
He slammed Israel’s government for capitulating to the Biden administration’s whim and “thumbing their noses at Israeli constitutional law,” and went on to claim that Lapid was using the agreement to score points before November’s national election.
“The proposed natural gas agreement between Israel and Lebanon represents a total capitulation to Hezbollah, and a transfer of sovereign Israeli territory to an Iranian puppet state,” he said.
“As the people of Iran fight for their freedom, Israel is surrendering to Tehran via Beirut without even getting an acknowledgement of its existence in return, let alone peace,” he went on.
After being proposed and rejected a decade ago, the deal is being rammed through, just weeks before the Israeli elections,” Kontorovich said, “because the Biden Administration and Hezbollah understand the desperation and weakness of the Lapid-Bennett government.”
Due to Lebanon’s refusal to recognize Israel, the two countries never agreed on a formal demarcation of their maritime borders. The issue had little significance until the discovery of valuable gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean in recent years.
Israel has stated that Karish is entirely within Israeli waters, but Lebanon — which is currently suffering from an unprecedented economic crisis — claims that the gas field is partially located within its territorial waters.
The disagreement has sparked a long standing dispute over which country has the right to authorize and profit from its gas production, which appears to be finally coming to an end.
Amos Hochstein, a former Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs to the American government, has been the mediator between Israel and Lebanon in a months-long attempt at shuttle diplomacy.
https://worldisraelnews.com/israel-hezbollah-deal-slammed-as-shameful-surrender-to-iran-backed-terror/

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 04-05/2022
Iran Says It Launched Test 'Tug' into Suborbital Space
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 4 October, 2022
Iranian state media said Tuesday the government has launched a space tug capable of shifting satellites between orbits. State TV said the Saman test spacecraft was built by the country’s Space Research Center and launched Monday by the Defense Ministry. Hassan Salarieh, chief of the Iranian Republic's space agency, told state TV that officials "hope to use and test the main tug in near future.” Iran unveiled the craft in 2017. A space tug can transfer a satellite from one orbit to another, said The Associated Press. Iran has long pursued a space program saying it is aimed at peaceful purposes. The country has both a civilian and a military space program, which the US fears could be used to advance its ballistic missile program. In June Tehran had launched a solid-fuel rocket into space and in August a Russian rocket successfully launched an Iranian Khayyam satellite into orbit. It’s named after Omar Khayyam, a Persian scientist who lived in the 11th and 12th centuries. However, Iran has seen a series of mishaps and failed satellite launches over recent years. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard in April 2020 revealed its own secret space program by successfully launching a satellite into orbit. The Guard operates its own military infrastructure parallel to Iran’s regular armed forces.

Iran’s President Tries to Assuage Anger as Protests Continue
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 4 October, 2022
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on Tuesday appealed for national unity and tried to allay anger against the country’s rulers, even as the anti-government protests that have engulfed the country for weeks continued to spread to universities and high schools. Raisi acknowledged that the country had “weaknesses and shortcomings,” but repeated the official line that the unrest sparked last month by the death of a 22-year-old woman in the custody of the country’s morality police was nothing short of a plot by Iran’s enemies. “Today the country’s determination is aimed at cooperation to reduce people’s problems,” he told a parliament session. “Unity and national integrity are necessities that render our enemy hopeless.” His claims echoed those of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who blamed the United States and Israel, the country’s adversaries, for inciting the unrest in his first remarks on the nationwide protests on Monday. It's a familiar tactic for Iran's leaders, who have remained mistrustful of Western influence since the 1979 revolution and commonly blame domestic problems on foreign enemies without offering evidence. The protests, which emerged in response to the death of Mahsa Amini after her arrest for allegedly violating the country’s strict dress code, have embroiled dozens of cities across the country and evolved into the most widespread challenge to Iran’s leadership in years. A series of mounting crises have festered and helped fuel public rage, including the country's political repression, ailing economy and global isolation.
Iran’s security forces have sought to disperse demonstrations with tear gas, metal pellets, and in some cases live fire, rights groups say. Iran’s state TV reports that violent confrontations between protesters and the police have killed at least 41 people, but human rights groups say the number is much higher.
As the new academic year officially began this week, the demonstrations spread quickly to university campuses, long considered sanctuaries in times of turmoil. Videos on social media showed students expressing solidarity with peers who had been arrested and calling for the end of the republic. Roiled by the unrest, many universities moved classes online this week. The prestigious Sharif University of Technology in Tehran became a battlefield on Sunday as security forces surrounded the campus from all sides and fired tear gas at protesters who were holed up inside a parking lot, preventing them from leaving. The student union reported that police arrested hundreds of students, although many were later released. In one video on Monday, students marched and chanted, “Jailed students must be freed!” at Tarbiat Modares University in Tehran. In another, students streamed through Khayyam University in the conservative city of Mashhad, shouting, “Sharif University has become a jail! Evin Prison has become a university!” — referring to Iran's notorious prison in Tehran. Protests also appeared to grip gender-segregated high schools across Iran on Monday, where groups of young girls waved their state-mandated hijabs and chanted “Woman! Life! Freedom!” in the city of Karaj west of the capital and in the Kurdish city of Sanandaj, according to widely shared footage. The response by Iran's security forces has sparked widespread global condemnation. On Monday, President Joe Biden said his administration was “gravely concerned about reports of the intensifying violent crackdown on peaceful protesters in Iran, including students and women.”Furious over Iran’s response to the demonstrations, the British foreign office summoned the Iranian ambassador in London. “The violence leveled at protests in Iran by the security forces is truly shocking,” said British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly.

US to Impose Costs on Iran for Crackdown on Protests, Biden Says
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 4 October, 2022
The United States this week will impose further costs on Iranian officials responsible for violence against demonstrators who protested against Iran's government after the death of Mahsa Amini, President Joe Biden said on Monday.
Amini, a 22-year-old from Iranian Kurdistan, was arrested on Sept. 13 in Tehran for "unsuitable attire" by the morality police and died in custody. Within hours of her funeral in the Kurdish town of Saqez on Sept. 17, thousands of Iranians poured into the streets across the country. Security forces, including police and the volunteer Basij militia, have cracked down on the protests. Rights groups put the death toll at over 130. In a statement, Biden said he was "gravely concerned about reports of the intensifying violent crackdown on peaceful protesters in Iran" and vowed a swift response. "This week, the United States will be imposing further costs on perpetrators of violence against peaceful protesters. We will continue holding Iranian officials accountable and supporting the rights of Iranians to protest freely," Biden said. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters that university students in Iran are "rightly enraged" by Amini's death and that the weekend crackdowns are the type of events that prompt young people in Iran to leave the country "and seek dignity and opportunity elsewhere." She gave no indication that the crackdown would have an impact US diplomacy to resurrect the Iran nuclear deal, which then President Donald Trump abandoned in 2018.

EU to Target Iranian Officials with Travel Bans, Asset Freezes, Says France
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 4 October, 2022
France's foreign minister said on Tuesday that the European Union was looking to impose asset freezes and travel bans on a number of Iranian officials involved in the crackdown on protesters. "France's action at heart of EU ... (is) to target those responsible for the crackdown by holding them responsible for their acts," Catherine Colonna told lawmakers in parliament, adding that the EU was looking at asset freezes and travel bans. The bloc last agreed human rights sanctions on Tehran in 2021. No Iranians had been added to that list since 2013, however, as the bloc has shied away such measures in the hope of reviving a nuclear accord with Iran after the United States withdrew in 2018. Those talks have now stalled. It currently has an array of sanctions on about 90 Iranian individuals which have been renewed annually every April. Colonna suggested the new measures could target repressive regime figures who send their children to live in Western countries. Diplomats say the measures are expected to be rubber-stamped at an EU foreign ministers meeting on Oct. 17. The United States and Canada have already imposed sanctions on Iran's morality police over allegations of abuse of Iranian women, saying they held the unit responsible for the death of a 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in police custody. Amini, a Kurdish woman, was arrested by the morality police in Tehran for wearing "unsuitable attire" and fell into a coma while in detention. The authorities have said they would investigate the cause of her death. Iran's supreme leader on Monday gave his full backing to security forces confronting protests ignited by the death of Amini, comments that could herald a harsher crackdown to quell unrest more than two weeks since she died. Iran Human Rights, a Norway-based group, has said more than 100 people have been killed. Iranian authorities have not given a death toll, while saying many members of the security forces have been killed by "rioters and thugs backed by foreign foes".

Russia’s Federation Council Ratifies Annexation of Four Ukrainian Regions
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 4 October, 2022
The upper house of Russia's parliament voted on Tuesday to approve the incorporation of four Ukrainian regions into Russia, as Moscow sets about formally annexing territory it sized from Kyiv during its seven-month conflict. In a session on Tuesday, the Federation Council unanimously ratified legislation to annex the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine, following a similar vote in the State Duma, Russia's lower house, yesterday. The documents now pass back to the Kremlin for President Vladimir Putin's final signature to complete the process of formally annexing the four regions, representing around 18% of Ukraine's internationally-recognized territory. Russia declared the annexations after holding what it called referendums in occupied areas of Ukraine. Western governments and Kyiv said the votes breached international law and were coercive and non-representative..

Russian forces under pressure in south Ukraine
Agence France Presse/Tuesday, 4 October, 2022
A Kremlin-installed official in the south Ukraine region of Kherson urged residents to remain calm Tuesday as reports were surfacing that Kyiv's forces were making sweeping gains into Russian-controlled territory. Moscow this month called up hundreds of thousands of troops to bolster the military in eastern Ukraine where Kyiv's forces have recently made lightning advances and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu meanwhile put the number at 200,000 as of Tuesday. Ukraine's southern region of Kherson was one of the first where Kyiv's defenses collapsed in February after Russian forces invaded but Ukrainian forces recently have accelerated a months-long offensive to recapture it. "Our artillery and fighter jets are hitting enemy forces that enter the sovereign territory of Russia," said Kirill Stremousov, the Moscow-appointed deputy head of the Kherson region. "There is no reason to panic," he added in his message to residents of the Black Sea region on social media. The reported gains into Kherson are a threat to the Kremlin's claim to have formally integrated the agriculturally rich region with a pre-war population of around one million people into the Russian Federation last week. According to Russian news agencies and unconfirmed social media reports, unidentified forces have attacked occupying Russian units and officials, while Ukrainian forces have destroyed river bridges, leaving Russian units vulnerable to being trapped. Some 80 percent of the region is estimated to be under Russian control. "Yes, you can hear explosions at a distance, but they're infrequent," Stremousov said in his message.
'Fierce' frontline fighting -
He called on Kherson's residents to remain calm after his superior, Vladimir Saldo, conceded in an interview that Ukrainian forces had made a "breakthrough" in the region's north east, at the village of Dudchany along the Dniepr river. But he claimed the push was short-lived and that Russian forces had pushed back again the advancing Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian officials have so far remained silent about any concrete territorial gains but the head of the presidential administration Andriy Yermak on Tuesday posted emojis of watermelons on social media, hinting at gains in the region famous for the fruit. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an address to the nation Monday evening said that "there are new liberated towns and villages in several regions.""Fierce fighting continues in many sectors of the frontline," he added, claiming that "more and more occupiers are trying to escape." Western officials have said that as many as 20,000 Russian troops could be at risk of being trapped on the western bank of the Dniepr river, which cuts diagonally through the region and flows into the Black Sea. Ukraine's apparent gains in Kherson follow a similar trend in the eastern regions of Kharkiv and Dontetsk in recent weeks, with a series of setbacks coinciding with Moscow's claim to have annexed the regions. The four territories -- Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in the south and Donetsk and Lugansk in the east -- create a crucial land corridor between Russia and the Crimean peninsula, annexed by Moscow in 2014. Together, all five make up around 20 percent of Ukraine. Shoigu said the Russian men mobilized to back up Moscow's forces were being trained at "80 training grounds and six training centers." "As of today more than 200,000 people have entered the army," Shoigu during a televised meeting. The Kremlin's mobilization has led to some protests and an exodus of men of military age -- with tens of thousands fleeing the draft, mainly to ex-Soviet neighbors.
Kazakhstan said Tuesday that more than 200,000 Russians had crossed into it in two weeks.

Russian occupation forces apparently executed an elderly Ukrainian man who relatives say was just out collecting pinecones, watchdog reports
Charles R. Davis/Business Insider/October 04/2022
Russian occupation forces apparently executed an elderly Ukrainian man who relatives say was just out collecting pinecones, watchdog reports
Russian occupation forces apparently executed three men in Kharkiv, Ukraine, per Human Rights Watch. One of the dead was a 76-year-old man who disappeared while out collecting pinecones for a fire. HRW's Belkis Willie said such "brutal killings" were a window into life "under Russian occupation." Russian occupation forces appear to have executed an elderly man and his son-in-law while they were out collecting pinecones near their village, leaving their rotting bodies in a forest where they were later found by a local farmer. In a report released Tuesday, Human Rights Watch said 76-year-old Oleksii Taran and 52-year-old Ivan Shebelnik were detained by Russian occupation forces back in March after they left their homes to collect kindling for a fire. They were held in a cellar in the village of Kaptyolivka, in the Kharviv region of Ukraine, along with another man, Yurii Kavun, who was also killed. The three men's bodies were found in August, a month before a Ukrainian counteroffensive drove Russian forces out of the area, which is located near the city of Izium. Residents of the village said the men had been looking for pinecones in an area near a Russian intelligence base, a possible reason they aroused suspicion. The report comes after an Associated Press investigation found that Russian occupation forces tortured soldiers and civilians alike in at least 10 spots across Izium, which Ukrainian forces liberated last month. According to death certificates reviewed by HRW, the elderly Taran died from blunt trauma to the head, while his son-in-law suffered chest trauma, including multiple broken ribs. Kavun was also found with a fatal head wound. "These brutal killings provide a window into the abuses that residents who lived under Russian occupation for six months witnessed and experienced," Belkis Wille, senior crisis and conflict researcher at HRW, said in a statement. At the time of the men's initial detention, their village was occupied by forces from the self-styled "Luhansk People's Republic," a region in eastern Ukraine that has been controlled by pro-Russia separatist forces since 2014 and was formally annexed into Russia earlier this month. The separatist forces in the area were later joined by Russian soldiers in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. A man who was detained alongside those who were apparently executed described being held in a cellar no bigger than 8.2 feet by 8.2 feet, telling HRW he could hear one of the men, the son-in-law Shebelnik, being tortured when he was pulled out for interrogation. "When he was brought back, he never wanted to talk about what they did to him, but I heard screams each time," the man, who requested anonymity, told researchers. After Russian forces were pushed out by the Ukrainian military, researchers visited a cellar that had "fully matched" the man's description, HRW said. A neighbor said he too heard screaming. HRW said there were likely more victims of Russian occupation, with researchers also uncovering a burial site with corpses that showed signs of torture.
Willie, the HRW researcher, said the killings "add to a long litany of alleged war crimes by Russian forces in Ukraine."
Have a news tip? Email this reporter: cdavis@insider.com

Russia Could Repeat Syria’s Ghouta, Aleppo Scenarios in Ukraine
Washington - Ali Barada/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 4 October, 2022
Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, the former commander of the UK and NATO chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) forces, warned that strategic nuclear weapons can change the planet as we know it. Russia and the West, including the US, UK, and France, have nearly 6,000 warheads between them. If launched, these warheads can lead to Mutually Assured Destruction, he added. These warheads are mounted on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), which can travel thousands of miles and are aimed at key locations and cities in the US, UK, France, and Russia, he explained.
Tactical nukes, meanwhile, are much smaller warheads with a yield, or explosive force, of up to 100 kilotons of dynamite—instead of about 1,000 kilotons for strategic warheads, he said. That said, tactical nuclear weapons can still cause massive amounts of damage, and if fired at a nuclear power plant—for example, Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine—could create a chain reaction and pollution on the scale of a nuclear attack. Moreover, Russians could even attack this plant with a conventional weapon that might have the effect of a tactical nuclear explosion, warned Bretton-Gordon. He believes that the Russians developed their unconventional warfare tactics in Syria. “I don’t think President Bashar al-Assad would still be in power if he hadn’t used chemical weapons,” he said. The massive nerve agent attack on August 21, 2013 on Ghouta stopped the opposition factions from overpowering Damascus. The four-year conventional siege of Aleppo was ended by several chlorine attacks. According to Bretton-Gordon, Russian President Vladimir Putin does not seem to have any reason not to repeat this experience again in Ukraine.

مقابلة من جيروزلم بوست مع الأمير الإيراني رضا بهلوي الساعي لعلاقات ثقافية واقتصادية مع دولة إسرائيل
Interview From Jerusalem Post With Iranian Prince Reza Pahlavi: 'Iran will seek economic, cultural ties with Israel' - Iranian prince - opinion
Emily Y. Schrander/Jerusalem Post/October 04/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/112486/interview-from-jerusalem-post-with-iranian-prince-reza-pahlavi-iran-will-seek-economic-cultural-ties-with-israel/
I interviewed Prince Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Iranian shah, to understand more about what Iran may look like should there be a successful revolution.
The Iranian Revolution in 1979 saw the ousting of the Shah of Iran and the implementation of an oppressive, theocratic regime which imposed draconian, barbaric laws on the people of Iran that have only intensified in their cruelty over the last 40 years.
Today, the people of Iran are fighting back with a massive wave of ongoing popular protests against the Islamic regime following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini by Iran’s notorious morality police. Unlike previous uprisings in Iran, the protesters have been very clear about their message and demands: they want regime change.
I interviewed Prince Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Iranian shah, to understand more about what Iran may look like should there be a successful revolution. Our discussion took place online.
ES: Prince Pahlavi, thank you for taking the time to speak with me. To start off, Iran is obviously in a tumultuous time once again. What do you see as the goal of the popular uprisings in Iran and do you support the protesters in their initiatives? What do the protesters need to do to ensure meaningful change and do you believe the army will eventually side with the people? Why or why not?
Pahlavi: It is my pleasure. We are indeed in more than tumultuous times in my country. We are in revolutionary times. The popular uprisings we are seeing in hundreds of cities and towns across Iran have a very clear goal: the overthrow of the Islamic Republic and the establishment of a secular democracy based on human rights. I appreciate the way you phrased the question, my brave compatriots on the ground are leading this struggle. Of course I support them with every fiber of my being and will do everything in my power to support them and help them be victorious.
One of the ways I believe I can do that is by speaking, publicly and privately, to the army and armed forces. As a soldier myself, I am telling them that their duty is to defend our country, our borders, and our people from foreign enemies but now they face a domestic enemy: the Islamic Republic, and they must defend the people against it.
The Islamic regime in Iran has ruled over the Iranian people for decades with an iron fist, despite not having popular support from the public. How has this regime maintained its power?
The regime has sustained power by brute force and attempting to divide and atomize our nation. It has attempted to fracture our people along exaggerated or even nonexistent lines of gender, religion, tribe, race, sexuality, or ideology. But the regime is failing. The Iranian people are showing right now that just as we have remained a united people for thousands of years, we continue to be one in the face of this domestic enemy. The young generation is bravely standing up against this regime’s violence and they aren’t afraid. They stand ready, shoulder to shoulder, to reclaim Iran from this medieval and divisive regime.”
ES: Many Westerners are wary of revolutions as a result of what happened in the Arab Spring and the subsequent instability. What is different about these protests? Hypothetically, the day after a successful revolution, what does Iran need to do to succeed and restore its position as a peace-loving nation in the world?
Pahlavi: “Westerners should be more concerned about the Islamic Republic staying in power than my compatriots establishing a free, secular, democratic Iran. The Islamic Republic has destroyed the Middle East, caused massive migration waves to Europe, and sown terror around the world. Yet, some are afraid of a democratic revolution against the regime that caused all of this? I find it a very sophomoric and unimaginative viewpoint.
These protests are being led by a new generation in Iran and as they chant in their slogans they want to “reclaim Iran” and rebuild it as a member of the international community. They want to live lives of peace and prosperity as so many nations of the Abraham Accords do. The day after this revolution succeeds, a national government dedicated to the well-being of the people will come to power and a constituent assembly begin the process of drafting a new constitution before heading to the first free elections. The process has been completed elsewhere, we do not need to reinvent the wheel.”
Moving on to the West, what is the role of the West (if any) in resolving the chaos in Iran? Do you think the US and other Western nations are doing their part? Finally, do you think that the US and allies should arm the protesters in Iran?
The West must move on from supporting this revolution in words to supporting it in actions. My compatriots need Internet access and they need support for their growing strikes. These countries spend millions of dollars annually on Internet freedom. What better investment could they make than providing Iranians with technology like Starlink? What better investment could be made than a strike fund to support laborers who are willing to take the risk to go on strike? As to the United States, it is finally time for [US] President [Joe] Biden to forcefully and unequivocally announce his support for the Iranian protesters taking valiantly to the streets. As a moral imperative, he should support this freedom movement as boldly as he supported the anti-apartheid movement.
However, under no circumstances do I think that any foreign nation should arm protesters. Our people have been proceeding wisely, thoughtfully, and largely through civil disobedience. They do not need foreign powers to arm them and we will not, under any circumstances, tolerate foreign powers attempting to arm or back certain factions against others. We are a united nation.”
The Iranian people and the Israeli people have a long and rich history and enjoyed mutually beneficial relations for years before the Islamic revolution. In the future, what are your hopes for the Israel-Iran relationship?
You are right. The history of the Iranian and Jewish people is an ancient one, from the times of Queen Esther and Cyrus the Great facilitating the rebuilding of the temple. Even more recently, our countries had excellent and productive relations in the 1960s and 1970s. Once this regime falls, its antisemitism and hatred for the state of Israel will also fall. Iran will seek economic, cultural and other ties with Israel as we will with all nations who seek relations with us based on goodwill and mutual interest.”
You are widely considered to be the favorite to rule Iran should the Islamic regime fall. What would Iran look up under your leadership? What would you do with the Iranian nuclear program? Do you support normalization with Israel? Do you support normalization with other Arab states?
I have never sought to free Iran for myself, I have sought to free Iran for my compatriots. For the youth who deserve the right to live like youth anywhere! I am not doing this for a title or a position. I am doing it for my country. My vision, however, is one far different from what one sees today. A free Iran would never seek nuclear weapons, as we would not need them. Of course we support normalization with Israel and Arab nations in the Persian Gulf region and broader Middle East. The future, free Iran will look to normalize relations with all based on mutual interest and mutual respect. Our region can, if we work together, be a global powerhouse.”
What is your message to the Jewish people and the people of Israel that you wish the public would understand more of when it comes to Israel and Iran?
Today protesters chant: “Women, life, freedom!” I believe our Jewish friends will empathize with this slogan and as we are in the middle of the Jewish holidays I say to them, “L’chaim!” To life! The Iranian people seek freedom for themselves and coexistence with others. We hope the people of Israel and the people of all nations will stand with us in that process.”
*The writer is the CEO of Social Lite Creative and a human rights activist.

Israel Prepares to Receive 50,000 Immigrants, Jews from Russia, Ukraine
Tel Aviv - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 4 October, 2022
The Jewish Agency for Israel announced on Monday that it expects the arrival of at least 50,000 new Jewish immigrants from Russia and Ukraine in the next six months. The figures were announced in an emergency research at the Ministry of Aliyah and Integration, which detailed the Agency’s plans to set up posts along Russia's borders to assist Russian refugees who are interested in immigrating to Israel. According to the Agency, as many as 6,000 immigrants are expected to arrive in Israel from Russia in each of the next six months. It expected half that amount to arrive from Ukraine. Israel's Minister of Aliyah and Integration Pnina Tamano Shata said the government approved on Sunday a special budget of 90 million shekels ($25 million) to finance the absorption of these immigrants. Jewish Agency Chairman Doron Almog announced plans to set up a special “aliyah express” track for new Russian arrivals that will allow them to board flights to Israel before completing all the necessary paperwork, so long as they are able to provide basic proof that they are eligible to immigrate under the Law of Return. According to the law, any individual with at least one Jewish grandfather is eligible for “aliyah”, or Jewish immigration to Israel, and automatic Israeli citizenship. A similar “aliyah express” track was created in March when a massive influx of immigrants from war-torn Ukraine was anticipated. Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, a total of 13,172 Ukrainians and 24,707 Russians have immigrated to Israel, according to Jewish Agency figures. Another 35,000 Russians and nearly 27,000 Ukrainians are currently residing in Israel – they are either waiting out the war as tourists or are in the process of immigrating, figures show. After the war broke out, the Jewish Agency set up stations near Ukraine’s borders with Poland, Moldova, Romania and Hungary to assist refugees interested in immigrating to Israel. Almog told the committee that similar stations are about to be set up on Russia's borders with Finland and Azerbaijan in order to help Russian refugees. He said the Agency had allocated half a billion shekels for this wave of immigrants from Ukraine and Russia. Of this sum, 200 million shekels had already been spent on bringing Ukrainian refugees to Israel, and another 300 million shekels would be required for the expected influx of Russians. Almog said he expected the Israeli government to provide some of the required funding.

Türkiye, Israel to Set up Committee to 'Prevent Deterioration of Ties'
Tel Aviv - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 4 October, 2022
Israeli ambassador to Ankara Irit Lillian revealed that Israel and Türkiye are working on forming a high-level committee to address differences and prevent the deterioration of relations. She said Israel is still keen on the Hamas movement shutting its efforts in Türkiye. Ankara insists that the movement enjoys legitimacy that it won in elections and is entitled to have a representing office in the Turkish capital. Lillian revealed, however, that the Turkish government has been receptive to Israel's request to reduce Hamas' presence. The ambassador was referring to Türkiye’s decision to prevent Hamas politburo member Saleh al-Arouri from operating in the country, forcing him to settle in Qatar and Lebanon. In a radio interview, Lillian spoke Monday after the Israeli government officially appointed her as ambassador to Türkiye. Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid said the move is another crucial step in repairing relations with Türkiye, noting that he met President Recep Tayyip Erdogan 0n the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York last week. Lillian, 60, began her diplomatic career in 1989 after completing her military service as a producer and editor at the Israel Army Radio.
She earned a Bachelor's degree in Archaeology and Egyptology from Tel Aviv University and a Master's degree in Eastern and Western Studies from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. She served for the past two years as Chargé d'Affaires at the Israeli Embassy in Ankara. Before then, she was the Israeli ambassador to Bulgaria from 2015 until 2019. She was urgently appointed head of the diplomatic mission in Ankara 18 months ago and was tasked with improving relations and pushing for reconciliation. She maintained close relations with Erdogan's office, mainly his advisor, Ibrahim Kalin, "the architect of reconciliation with Israel." In her radio interviews, Lillian confirmed that the political leaderships in the two countries had reached the conviction that tensions between them are not beneficial, noting that Türkiye and Israel are united by the historic relations between the Ottoman Empire and the Jews. The ambassador said Erdogan has demonstrated that he is methodical and pragmatic and made it clear that he sees his country's interest in improving bilateral relations. She explained that Israel and Türkiye are both realistic and realize they can disagree in the future, but agreed to find a framework to contain differences and prevent them from becoming crises. On the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, she said Tel Aviv and Ankara “agree to disagree” on the issue.

North Korea sends missile soaring over Japan in escalation
Associated Press/October 04/2022
North Korea on Tuesday fired a ballistic missile over Japan for the first time in five years, forcing Japan to issue evacuation notices and suspend trains during the flight of the nuclear-capable weapon that could reach the U.S. territory of Guam and possibly beyond.
The launch was the most provocative weapons demonstration by North Korea this year as it ramps up missile tests to build a full-fledged nuclear arsenal that viably threatens U.S. allies and the American homeland with the goal of wresting outside concessions, some experts say. The missile's estimated 4,500 kilometer (2,800 mile) flight was the longest by any North Korean missile, though the North has previously launched other potentially longer-range weapons at high angles to avoid neighboring countries. The United States strongly condemned North Korea's "dangerous and reckless decision" to launch what it described as a "long-range ballistic missile" over Japan.
"The United States will continue its efforts to limit (North Korea's) ability to advance its prohibited ballistic missile and weapons of mass destruction programs, including with allies and U.N. partners," National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol earlier said the missile had an intermediate range, while Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada said it was believed to have an intermediate range or longer. If Tuesday's launch involves a long-range missile, that could be a test of a weapon targeting the U.S. homeland, some experts say.
Japanese authorities alerted residents in northeastern regions to evacuate to shelters, in the first "J-alert" since 2017 when North Korea fired an intermediate-range Hwasong-12 missile twice over Japan in a span of weeks during its previous torrid run of weapons tests. Trains were suspended in the Hokkaido and Aomori regions until the government issued a subsequent notice that the North Korean missile appeared to have landed in the Pacific. In Sapporo city, the prefectural capital of Japan's northernmost main island of Hokkaido, subways were also temporarily suspended, with stations packed with morning commuters.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told reporters the latest firing "is a reckless act and I strongly condemn it." South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said the missile was fired from the inland north in North Korea. It warned the North's repeated missile launches would only deepen its international isolation and prompt Seoul and Washington to bolster their deterrence capacities.
Yoon said the North's "reckless nuclear provocations" would meet the stern response of the South and the broader international community. According to South Korean and Japanese estimates, the missile traveled about 4,500-4,600 kilometers (2,800-2,860 miles) at a maximum altitude of 970-1,000 kilometers (600-620 miles). Hamada said it landed in the Pacific, about 3,200 kilometers (1,990 miles) off the northern Japanese coast and that there have been no reports of damage to Japanese aircraft and ships. South Korea's Defense Ministry said the missile flew farther than any other weapon fired by North Korea. Before Tuesday's launch, the 3,700-kilometer (2,300 miles)-long flight of Hwasong-12 in 2017 was North Korea's longest. It has previously tested intercontinental ballistic missiles at steep angles so they flew shorter.
The U.S. said national security adviser Jake Sullivan had consulted with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts on their appropriate and robust responses. Both South Korea and Japan separately convened their own emergency national security council meetings. The missile's flight distance shows it has enough range to hit the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam, home to U.S. military bases that sent advanced warplanes to the Korean Peninsula in shows of force in past tensions with North Korea. In 2017, North Korea threatened to make "an enveloping fire" near Guam with Hwasong-12 missiles amid rising animosities with the then-Trump administration.
North Korea last test-fired a Hwasong-12 missile in January. At the time, the North said the launch was meant to verify the overall accuracy of the weapon, which it said was launched on a lofted angle to prevent it from flying over other countries.
Hamada said the missile on Tuesday could have been another Hwasong-12. Kim Dong-yub, a professor at Seoul's University of North Korean Studies, said North Korea could have tested the Hwasong-12 again or even an intercontinental ballistic missile, closer to what would be a normal ballistic trajectory but shorter than its full range. If it was an ICBM, the purpose of the launch would be to test whether the warhead could survive the harsh conditions of atmospheric reentry, Kim said. Tuesday's launch is the fifth round of weapons tests by North Korea in the past 10 days in what was seen as an apparent response to military drills between South Korea and the United States and other training among the allies including Japan last week. North Korea views them as an invasion rehearsal. The missiles fired during the past four rounds of launches were short-range and fell in the waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan. Those missiles are capable of hitting targets in South Korea. North Korea has test-fired about 40 missiles over about 20 different launch events this year as its leader Kim Jong Un pushes to perfect his country's weapons technologies and refuses to return to nuclear diplomacy with the United States.
Last month, North Korea adopted a new law authorizing the preemptive use of nuclear weapons in some cases, a move that showed its increasingly aggressive nuclear doctrine. Last Saturday, Yoon warned of an "overwhelming response" from South Korean and U.S. militaries if North Korea uses nuclear weapons. Some foreign experts say North Korea needs to master a few remaining technologies to acquire functioning nuclear missiles. Each new test pushes them closer to being able to reach the U.S. mainland and its allies with a host of nuclear-tipped missiles of varying range.
Some experts say Kim eventually will return to diplomacy and use his enlarged arsenal to pressure Washington to accept his country as a nuclear state, a recognition that he thinks is necessary to win the lifting of international sanctions and other concessions.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 04-05/2022
كبريال كافن: ترى هل ضحى بوتين بالأرمن..روسيا لم تعد مهتمة بإتفاق سلام
Has Putin sacrificed Armenia?… Russia is no longer interested in a peace deal
Gabriel Gavin/UnHerd/October 04/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/112466/112466/
Yerevan
On a hillside overlooking the capital is Armenia’s last line of defence in the event of war. Squeezed between a junkyard and a Soviet-era apartment block is a dusty assault course littered with rusting cars, discarded water bottles and a replica rocket launcher. This is the training ground of Voma, a paramilitary group that prepares ordinary citizens to fight for the future of their country. That future is looking increasingly uncertain.
“Last week, we had just 15 people attending training,” says Nanée, a 24-year-old volunteer teaching first aid. “Now, we have more than 150. Old, young, men, women — everyone wants to know how to act in case there’s another invasion.”
Days before, on 13 September, Armenian towns and villages came under a heavy artillery barrage from neighbouring Azerbaijan, which lasted for two days. Baku insists its forces were attacked first, but after the blasts came its troops, pushing across the frontier and capturing territory inside Armenia in the most dramatic escalation since the two nations fought a bloody war in 2020. There are fears a humanitarian ceasefire could collapse at any moment.
At the heart of the conflict is the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is situated within Azerbaijan’s internationally-recognised borders, but has been held since the fall of the USSR by ethnic Armenian separatists. Two years ago, Baku’s well-armed forces pushed past the barricades and across the minefields to take back swathes of territory in a shock-and-awe offensive. But Moscow swiftly intervened, brokering a peace deal that left the Karabakh Armenians in control of only around a third of the area.
This time, though, it’s different. Baku is insisting that Yerevan formally recognises its sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh and ending the three-decades-long stand-off over the region; Azerbaijan says it’s a matter of international law, while Armenians in the breakaway territory fear ethnic cleansing if they are abandoned. The sudden outbreak of hostility towards Armenia, which many see as a tactic to force a deal, has reportedly killed 105 Armenian troops and 71 Azerbaijanis.
To make matters worse, Moscow is refusing to play peacemaker. Armenia is formally an ally of Russia, as a member of the Moscow-led CSTO mutual defence pact. But its pleas for Kremlin support have fallen on deaf ears, with other member states like Kazakhstan ruling out sending troops to de-occupy the territory. Russia is clearly reluctant to spare any resources or manpower from its war in Ukraine, leaving the Armenians on their own.
“My uncle was one of those killed in the shelling,” says 18-year-old Aram. He signed up to take part in civil defence training the next day, spending his evenings drilling with a heavy wooden mock assault rifle and running laps with other volunteers. “My parents have mixed feelings about it. They don’t want me to go to war and die — but my dad bought me my new uniform.”
Voma is dependent on donations of cash and military surplus gear from the public to train volunteers — many of whom then formally enlist. However, once they are part of the armed forces, many find there’s still not enough equipment to go around.
Lusine, 38, also decided to join up after going through civil defence training. “They gave me a list of everything I need to provide myself — a sleeping bag, a flashlight, a hunting knife, even a spoon. They’ll give me an AK-47 but, as a woman, being captured isn’t an option, so I need to get hold of a pistol as well and save a bullet for myself.”
Armenian society was shaken when reports surfaced days after the latest offensive about the fate of several female soldiers who were captured by Azerbaijani forces. In one video shared online, 36-year-old mother of three Anush Apetyan is raped, murdered and mutilated, her dismembered finger pushed into her mouth. While Baku has not responded to the video, in neighbouring Turkey — a close ally of Azerbaijan — women’s groups gathered to condemn the apparent atrocity, holding placards reading “no to femicide”.
The incident has left many Armenians feeling they are fighting a battle for their very existence. “This is my home. And they’re trying to invade and destroy something that I’ve come to love,” says Joe Kasabian, an American-Armenian and former US soldier who first moved to the country last year. “We just want to be left alone, and they won’t let us. The fight is here whether we want it or not.” Now, he says, when the time comes, he’s ready to serve again.
Many see the conflict through an ethnic and religious lens, priding themselves on being the first country in the world to adopt Christianity, bordered on two sides by Turkic Muslim nations. Armenia is also a place where genocide lingers within living memory. From 1915 to 1917, shortly before the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, hundreds of thousands of ethnic Armenians living in what is now modern-day Turkey were rounded up and purged, loaded onto boats and sunk, forced into death marches or made to flee their homes for Western Europe. Turkey and Azerbaijan insist the events never took place, despite growing international recognition from countries like the US, France, Germany and Russia.
Now, once again, Armenians are hearing echoes of ethnic cleansing in rhetoric coming from their neighbours. “Make up your mind,” ultranationalist Turkish MP Mustafa Destici told Armenians in mid-September, as pressure built from Azerbaijan to recognise Baku’s sovereignty over the entirety of Nagorno-Karabakh. “I remind you once again that the Turkish Nation has the power to erase Armenia from history and geography, and that they stand at the limit of our patience.”
Others though have sought to downplay ethnic tensions. “This isn’t about hatred for Armenians,” a top Azerbaijani official tells me on the condition of anonymity. “We’ve lived together side by side for centuries; we’re a secular nation with many ethnic and religious minorities. This is just about respecting international law. Karabakh is ours, and we will take it back one way or the other. They’re preparing for war when they should be negotiating for peace.”
Yet Armenia’s domestic political situation has made any kind of peaceful deal even harder to reach. Following the heavy shelling in September, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan indicated he could be about to secure a deal recognising Azerbaijani sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh. Within hours, massive protests had been organised, with marchers climbing the gates of the parliament building and demanding he step down.
“No document has been signed,” the Prime Minister said in a surprise statement, designed to calm tensions, “and I can say that no document will be signed”. And yet, while the U-turn may have prevented an all-out riot, it’s not clear that officials have any alternative plan to avert further conflict. In a nation that sees surviving genocide as a core part of its identity, political concessions are often viewed a milestone on the road to total obliteration.
That said, the Armenian government has so far refused to begin mass mobilisation. Having come to power following a wave of street protests in 2018, known as the “Velvet Revolution”, many local analysts say embattled Pashinyan has purposefully kept the army relatively weak. He is distrustful of the top brass, after senior officers called on him to resign following military defeats in the 2020 war. The post of Chief of the General Staff was left vacant for most of this year, making top-down reforms harder.
As a result, the army is woefully underprepared for war. Near the village of Nurevan, just a stone’s throw from the border, a detachment of troops are fortifying their positions and bracing for what many see as an imminent onslaught. However, the young soldiers — many of whom are 18-year-old conscripts — are kitted out with uniforms that are falling apart at the seams, their foam lining breaking out through the camouflage. Few have modern helmets and even fewer have body armour. “Our troops need everything from socks to weapons to coffee,” says Armen Hagopjanyan, the head of the local district.
Feeling their government is doing too little to prepare, ordinary citizens are taking matters into their own hands. Seventeen-year-olds Edwin and Serge are among those who have set up an all-night collection point in Yerevan, calling on locals to donate whatever they can to those standing guard on the border. “I’m too young to serve,” Edwin says, manning the bench and packing up boxes of supplies at 1am, “but this is how I can contribute”. As well as clothing and long-life instant noodles, the most popular donations are cigarettes and lighters, which those who have done military service say are as valuable as bullets at the front.
Few Armenians truly believe they can beat Azerbaijan on the battlefield. But with their government unwilling and unable to grant political concessions, many are bracing for an inevitable fight.
Former foreign minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan is among those calling for the country to get ready to defend itself. “God bless our Army — we can win even when it seems impossible,” he says. At the same time though, he quotes one of Winston Churchill’s more morose lines: “You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than live as slaves.”
**Gabriel Gavin is a Moscow-based journalist who has covered Eastern Europe for many publications.

Al-Qaradawi: Qatar's Islamist Empire Builder
Alberto M. Fernandez/MEMRI/ October 03/2022
In 1917, in an attempt to knock Russia out of the First World War, Germany sent a sealed train transporting hardened Russian revolutionaries, including Vladimir Lenin and his wife, back to their homeland in order to foment chaos and revolution. The plan worked, although it had certain catastrophic unforeseen circumstances.
In the 1950s and 60s, Arab Nationalist regimes in Cairo and Damascus expelled hundreds of Islamists, many of whom found refuge in the Arab Gulf states, just beginning to develop their countries and economies as oil wealth came on line. The Islamists, members of the Muslim Brotherhood, often found jobs in schools, universities and mosques. The fact that these were refugees from and opponents of Arab Nationalist and leftist regimes back home made them even more welcomed in the Gulf which very much feared those radical ideologies.
One 35-year-old Egyptian cleric, who had already been imprisoned by both King Farouk and Gamal Abdel Nasser as a Muslim Brotherhood member, was sent to the small emirate of Qatar in 1961. Qatar was probably the least and poorest of those Arab Gulf states at the time. That young man, Yousuf Al-Qaradawi (1926-2022), who died last week in Doha at the age of 96, would rise to great heights as he tied his fate and ideology to that of an increasingly wealthy and ambitious princely family.
The Muslim Brotherhood's influence in those decades would be tremendous, whether or not the state was, like both Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Salafi in orientation. States with parliamentary elections, like Kuwait and Bahrain, would see organized Muslim Brotherhood-style groups win and compete. For several decades in the Gulf, they found sinecures, money, and encouragement.
Al-Qaradawi would flourish, founding the Faculty of Islamic Law (Sharia) at Qatar University in 1977, writing and teaching, and building up networks of like-minded contacts and allies throughout the region. In the years before the Muslim Brotherhood was seen as a threat by Gulf states, he was rewarded by governments other than Qatar. In 1994, he received the King Faisal Prize in Islamic Studies from Saudi Arabia. In 2000, he was awarded the Dubai International Holy Quran Award for Islamic Personality of the Year, an award established by Dubai's ruling family.
By then, Al-Qaradawi was a star on the new Al-Jazeera satellite channel, with his own highly popular religious program "Sharia and Life" starting in 1996. The now-naturalized Qatari cleric –who was issued a diplomatic passport – commented on almost everything, such as the conditional condoning of the killing of American hostage Nick Berg by Al-Qaeda's Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in 2004,[1] or his positive views on Hitler against the Jews. In 2009 he remarked, as broadcast on Al-Jazeera:
"Throughout history, Allah has imposed upon the [Jews] people who would punish them for their corruption. The last punishment was carried out by Hitler. By means of all the things he did to them – even though they exaggerated this issue – he managed to put them in their place. This was divine punishment for them. Allah willing, the next time will be at the hand of the believers."[2]
The political observer can, with a sufficiently intensive search, find some statements by Al-Qaradawi that may have been marginally helpful against some elements of Salafi-jihadism.[3] But their overall thrust was towards mainstreaming extremist discourse in general, with minor caveats here and there.
The cleric's view of America was almost as hostile as it was of the Jews. Three years after the worst terrorist attack in American history, Al-Qaradawi would identify American culture – including cowboy movies – and Judaism as the principal instigators of violence in the world. And where did he make such a sweeping statement? On his popular primetime religion program on Al-Jazeera in 2004.[4]
Al-Qaradawi's views were multi-faceted and extensive, and should certainly not be simplified, but here was a trusted establishment figure in official Doha circles projecting a Muslim Brotherhood view of the world, including of America and the West, on supposedly "independent" but Qatari-owned Al-Jazeera to a large regional audience. The cleric's broadcasts, and his controversial views from suicide bombings to homosexuality, were an overt above the ground version of what was and still is Al-Jazeera's usual Islamist sub-text coloring news and commentary across the network.
It is ironic indeed that after his death, he was lauded as the cleric of Islamic "centrism" or moderation (wasatiyya), a term he himself embraced – an ostensible Islamic center that seems only relatively moderate if compared to the Islamic State or Al-Qaeda.[5] And while Al-Qaradawi was promoting his "moderate way," the media network that sponsored him was the chief media outlet for Bin Ladin's Al-Qaeda.[6]
Al-Qaradawi's prominent presence over the years on the channel also served as a bellwether for the station's editorial line: Like Al-Jazeera itself, the Al-Qaradawi who praised Hizbullah in Lebanon fighting against Israel in 2006, would condemn it seven years later for fighting for Assad in Syria. In 2001, he issued a notorious fatwa allowing suicide bombings ("martyrdom operations"), a practice often associated up to that time with Shi'ite rather than Sunni Muslims. He would eventually change his position 15 years later, after numerous bloody episodes of suicide bombing of civilians worldwide. But that new 2016 fatwa didn't actually ban suicide bombing; it merely narrowed the acceptable scope of such actions, no longer permitted to be carried out by individuals but only as part of an acceptable group that should try, if at all possible, to minimize the number of "innocent" victims. In 2003, he praised Libyan dictator Muammar Al-Qaddafi; in 2011 he issued a fatwa allowing for his killing. In 2013, he would describe opponents of the Morsi regime in Egypt as "Kharijites, criminals who disobey the ruler.
Like the network, Al-Qaradawi demonstrated a certain flexibility and pragmatism within the context of an overall Islamist worldview that was sometimes mistaken for tolerance. Al-Qaradawi was far from the only active, high-profile Islamist during the decades of his greatest activity. But he was one of the very few with not only a massive media presence but also the backing of an extremely wealthy patron that never wavered. He could and did give greater mainstream respectability to radical ideologies that led to the death of thousands in the region. Eventually, after 9/11, and especially after the revolutions of the Arab Spring that began in 2011, which empowered Islamists in Egypt and Tunisia, Al-Qaradawi and other Muslim Brotherhood leaders would be shunned by governments in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates who saw the organization as an incendiary, existential threat. But Qatar would never abandon him.
A prolific writer on Islamic issues, with a massive bibliography, Al-Qaradawi expanded beyond both the printed page and his television program. Shortly after beginning on Al-Jazeera, he would establish, in 1997, Islamonline.net, one of the largest Islam-oriented websites in the world which at its height was receiving 120,000 visitors a day. The same year he was involved in the creation of the Dublin-based MB-connected European Council for Fatwa and Research (ECFR) whose work was to provide religious guidance to Muslims in the West. Al-Qaradawi served as the ECFR's Chairman from its founding. He was also a trustee of the Oxford Centre for Islamic Studies, set up with Gulf money under the auspices of Prince Charles.
In 2004, Al-Qaradawi would start still another Doha-based and lavishly Qatari-funded organization, the International Union of Muslim Scholars (IUMS), which he would chair until ill health forced his resignation in 2018. The IUMS, also like everything else the cleric touched, was connected to the Muslim Brotherhood and espoused its ideology. Not everyone in the supposed 90,000 IUMS members of the organization were Muslim Brotherhood members (indeed many, including its Vice President Abdullah Bin Bayyah, would resign because of the organization's increasingly overt Islamist political stances), but the explicit goal was to influence discourse in a specific direction.
Al-Qaradawi not only built, hand in hand with the Doha leadership, a media and ideological empire with the help of Qatari cash; he would also dabble in financial affairs and reportedly do quite well both inside Qatar and abroad. In 2004, the London-based Guardian newspaper revealed Al-Qaradawi's ties with the Al-Taqwa Bank, which had been sanctioned by the U.S. and the U.K. in 2001 shortly after the September 11 attacks. Once again, there was a clear Muslim Brotherhood connection, with Al-Taqwa chairman Youssef Nada admitting that he had been a member for 50 years but disavowing any ties to violence. In 2010, the bank was removed from a UN list of entities accused of having ties to Al-Qaeda, and no one was ever actually charged with a crime.
As a man very much in the public sphere who was given to extreme statements while appearing on the most important Arabic language channel in the Middle East for years, Al-Qaradawi caught MEMRI's attention early and often. Our documentation of his commentary is extensive, and even drew the ire of London Mayor Ken Livingstone, an aggressive defender of Al-Qaradawi.[7] Al-Qaradawi claimed to have twice turned down the leadership position of Supreme Guide of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, but his influence was much greater where he was, in Doha, joined at the hip with Qatari foreign policy and very well compensated. His life was one of great power and influence, most of it used for ill, and that influence will linger after his passing.
Al-Qaradawi was a true devotee of Muslim Brotherhood founder Hassan Al-Banna – whom he met once as a young man – and he succeeded in placing extreme modes of Islamist thought front and center, not only in the mainstream, but on screen and online. His legacy is perhaps best characterized by a recent comment from Saudi writer Abdullah Bin Bakheet, who noted: "After the revolutionaries, Baathists and nationalists led the Arab peoples halfway towards ruin, the Sheikhs of politics came to replace the word 'Arabism' with the word 'Islam' and take us down the same path."[8] He was specifically referring to Al-Qaradawi.

Needed: A New Monroe Doctrine to Confront China's Aggression
Lawrence Kadish/Gatestone Institute/October 04/2022
Chinese fleets working 24/7 off the coasts of North and South America are a reflection of Beijing's intent to land a far bigger fish: global dominance at the expense of every other nation on the planet. (Image source: iStock)
The Chinese have proved in word and deed their intent to dominate the rest of the 21st Century.
Unlike like the gruesome tactics of Vladimir Putin, the Chinese apparently seek to the acquire that global position without the need to fire a shot. Nuclear weapons in their arsenal? No question. A strong military? Yes, with a navy that has a significant ability to challenge our Pacific fleet. Space exploration? They are already there. Digital dominance? Well on their way, with the ability to monitor the thoughts, comments, and opinions of over one billion citizens.
But is their economy with which they seek to relegate the United States to a second-rate world power -- with their knowledge that it was a bankrupt economy that ultimately dismantled the Soviet Union.
The latest insight into their strategy for unassailable global dominance comes from the sea and it has little to do with their new aircraft carrier or deep diving submarines. Rather, it has to do with fish.
The New York Times has published an exhaustive study of China's fishing industry, describing it as "a global fishing operation unmatched by any other country." The intensity, scope, and proximity of their fishing fleets to the waters off the Americas prompted the Times to observe, "The scale has raised alarms about the harm to the local economies and the environment, as well as the commercial sustainability of tuna, squid and other species."
Massive Chinese factory ships are prowling the waters seeking tons of fish to make up for the loss of fish in their own waters and, not surprisingly, the Times reports that these vessels regularly violate territorial waters of sovereign nations that border the oceans.
This is not the first time that fishing rights have sparked international outrage. The "Cod Wars" occurred between Great Britain and Iceland in the 1950s over who could fish the North Atlantic. The newly recognized United States and Great Britain needed to hammer out fishing rights in the 1780s, and things became dangerously contentious in the 1800s before common sense prevailed.
But in the 21st Century we are on far more dangerous ground: the Chinese clearly view global fishing anytime, anywhere, and without regard to sustainability, among their rights as the ascendant superpower of this era. Treaties, such as the one that protected democracy in Hong Kong, are apparently mere scraps of paper.
Yet the world's oceans are not the only place where the Chinese are claiming ownership. Try America's farmlands.
Published reports reveal that Chinese companies are purchasing significant tracts of farmland in our nation's heartland. Think of the implications when a country who views us as an obstacle to their global dominance buys up the very property we depend upon as essential to feeding our population.
North America, however, is not their only acquisition target. The Chinese are also pursuing ownership of natural resources in South America essential to a modern economy.
In response, the nations of North and South America urgently need to convene to draft a new Monroe Doctrine. Much as the original document put European powers on notice that the sovereign rights of nations emerging in the New World must be respected or face a hostile United States, China must understand that poaching in waters off signatory nations will be met forcefully.
A 21st Century Monroe Doctrine would unambiguously remind China that while the nations of the North and South Americas may have their disagreements, they stand as one in recognizing the intent of the Chinese to overturn the current order. Such a diplomatic effort would unify New World nations of profoundly different cultures, reminding their leaders that their cross-border disputes and differing ideologies pale in comparison to the external threat just off their shores.
We are understandably distracted by any number of crises: Putin's war, the lasting impact of the pandemic, the escalating recession, the catastrophic impact of drug abuse, the disastrous state of public education, and more. But understand that the Chinese fleets working 24/7 off the coasts are just a reflection of Beijing's intent to land a far bigger fish: global dominance at the expense of every other nation on the planet.
*Lawrence Kadish serves on the Board of Governors of Gatestone Institute.
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Iranian Mullahs Target Women, the West; Palestinians Target Jews
by Bassam Tawil/ Gatestone Institute/October 04/2022
This latest wave of terrorism is the direct result of the massive campaign of incitement against Israel and Jews by many Palestinians, including those belonging to the Palestinian Authority headed by President Mahmoud Abbas.
Palestinians have already made it clear that their true goal is to replace Israel, not live alongside it. The plan is to replace Israel with a fundamentalist Islamist state, controlled by the mullahs in Iran, who have no compunctions about beating an Iranian woman to death for not covering her hair.
If Iran's mullahs are committing such atrocities against their own people, it is not hard to imagine what they will do to their much-hated enemies... Iranian missiles, eventually with nuclear warheads, are clearly being developed not just for Israel.
Consider the "new Axis of Evil," Russia and Iran, complete with Iranian drones now being used by Russia against Ukraine. Imagine if those drones were, instead, nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles from Iran -- especially as Russia will reportedly be in charge of Iran's "compliance" and "excess" enriched uranium. An Iran with nuclear weapons would doubtless be a most welcome addition to Russia's proxy arsenal.
The Biden administration would be doing a great service to Jews and Arabs alike by calling out the Palestinians for their continued campaign of incitement to violence against Jews.
The latest wave of terrorism is the direct result of the massive campaign of incitement against Israel and Jews by many Palestinians, including those belonging to the Palestinian Authority headed by President Mahmoud Abbas. "The Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Church of the Holy Sepulcher are ours. They are all ours, and they [Jews] have no right to defile them with their filthy feet. We salute every drop of blood spilled for the sake of Jerusalem. This blood is clean, pure blood, shed for the sake of Allah. Every martyr will be placed in Paradise, and all the wounded will be rewarded by Allah." — PA President Mahmoud Abbas. (Image source: MEMRI)
In the past few years, the Palestinians have made it a habit to step up their manufactured incitement against Israel and Jews on the eve of Jewish holidays. This year has not been an exception.
In the days preceding the Jewish New Year holiday, celebrated in mid-September, Palestinian leaders, spokesmen and factions went on a frenzied campaign of threats, lies and misinformation that triggered a wave of violence and terrorism against Jews.
At the core of the Palestinian campaign is the false claim that Jews are planning to "storm" and "desecrate" the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. The mosque is located on the Temple Mount, the holiest site for Jewish believers, where Abraham performed the binding of son, Isaac. It was also, in antiquity, the site of the two Jewish Temples.
Jewish worshippers have been peacefully touring the Temple Mount for years. Contrary to the claims made by the Palestinians, these visitors have not set foot inside either the al-Aqsa Mosque or the nearby Dome of the Rock, another holy site for Muslims.
Moreover, the Jews have not initiated any act of violence against the Muslim worshippers during their tours of the Temple Mount. In fact, the Jews and the police officers accompanying them are usually the victims of verbal and physical abuse.
The Palestinians, who have often falsely accused Israel of denying them free access to the Islamic religious sites in Jerusalem and the West Bank, have made it clear that they do not want any Jew to visit the Temple Mount. The Palestinians also, despite massive evidence in archeology and ancient texts such as the Bible, continue to deny any Jewish history in Jerusalem or elsewhere in the Holy Land.
This denial is part of the overall Palestinian narrative that basically denies Israel's right to exist in the Middle East as a sovereign and independent homeland for the Jewish people.
The Palestinians evidently worry that if they or the rest of the world recognize the Jews' historical and religious attachment to Jerusalem and other parts of Israel and the West Bank, this would be interpreted as acceptance and legitimization of Israel.
The Palestinian violence that erupted before, during and after the Jewish holiday last week revealed once again that the Palestinians are more interested in destroying Israel than in achieving statehood.
Most of the statements made by Palestinian officials, activists and terror groups over the past two weeks underscored the desire to step up terrorism against Jews and the need to pursue fighting against the Jews until they are driven from the entire country of Israel.
The terror attacks against Jews in Jerusalem and the West Bank during the past week included shootings, car-rammings, hurling Molotov cocktails and bricks, and stabbings. This latest wave of terrorism is the direct result of the massive campaign of incitement against Israel and Jews by many Palestinians, including those belonging to the Palestinian Authority headed by President Mahmoud Abbas.
Abbas himself has long been playing the US and other Westerners with carefully-crafted double-talk. On the one hand, he tells them that the Palestinians are "yearning" for peace with Israel and are opposed to violence and terrorism, as he did in his recent speech before the United Nations General Assembly.
On the other hand, Abbas and his senior officials continue to praise and glorify terrorists who murder or injure Jews. Abbas and the Palestinian Authority continue to make incendiary false allegations against the Jews and accuse them of committing "massacres" at the same time as they encourage Palestinians to carry out terrorist attacks against Israel on the totally false pretext that Jews are "desecrating" Islamic holy sites.
It was Mahmoud Abbas's 2015 statement that Jews "have no right to defile the Al-Aqsa Mosque with their filthy feet" that sparked a wave of anti-Jewish terrorist attacks that became known as the "Knife Intifada". Abbas's antisemitic remark back then came in response to the usual peaceful tours by Jews to the Temple Mount. Many Palestinians, however, interpreted their leader's statement as a green light to go slaughter Jews. The result: between 2015 and 2016, 34 Jews were murdered and dozens wounded.
Abbas and the top Palestinian leadership have since steadfastly maintained their malignant policies towards Israel.
The Palestinian leaders continue with the same incitement against Israel and Jews as their new fellow-travelers in the Biden administration look the other way.
The Biden administration officials are not only ignoring the dangerous incitement and terrorism by the Palestinians, they are even talking about the benefit of establishing another failed and corrupt terror state for the Palestinians next to Israel. The Biden administration and others call this fantasy "the two-state solution."
Palestinians have already made it clear that their true goal is to replace Israel, not live alongside it. The plan is to replace Israel with a fundamentalist Islamist state, controlled by the mullahs in Iran, who have no compunctions about beating an Iranian woman to death for not covering her hair.
If Iran's mullahs are committing such atrocities against their own people, it is not hard to imagine what they will do to their much-hated enemies in Israel, Europe and the United States. Iranian missiles, eventually with nuclear warheads, are clearly being developed not just for Israel.
Consider the "new Axis of Evil," Russia and Iran, complete with Iranian drones now being used by Russia against Ukraine. Imagine if those drones were, instead, nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles from Iran -- especially as Russia will reportedly be in charge of Iran's "compliance" and "excess" enriched uranium. An Iran with nuclear weapons would doubtless be a most welcome addition to Russia's proxy arsenal.
The Biden administration has chosen totally to ignore the threats made by several Iranian leaders to eliminate the "Zionist entity." The Biden administration is also totally ignoring Palestinian incitement against Jews.
Iran's mullahs cannot tolerate the idea of a woman appearing in public without her hair fully covered. Palestinian leaders, such as Abbas, cannot tolerate the idea of a Jew visiting his or her holy site. The mullahs want to kill supposedly "immodest" Muslim women; the Palestinians want to kill Jewish worshippers for being Jews.
The same people now warning about the Iranian regime's crackdown on protesters must also raise their voice against the Palestinian leaders who are encouraging and sending their young men and women to attack and murder Jews visiting the Temple Mount in Jerusalem or Joseph's Tomb in Nablus. The mullahs are the enemies of Israel, of their own crushed women, and of the West. The Palestinian leaders are the enemies of all Jews, especially those living in Israel.
The Biden administration would be doing a great service to Jews and Arabs alike by calling out the Palestinians for their continued campaign of incitement to violence against Jews. If the Biden administration does not wish to upset the Palestinians by doing so, it should at least shut up and let Israel continue its relentless war on terrorism, a real threat not only to Israelis and Palestinians but to all countries in the West.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

A New Tall Tale for the Winter: 'Europe Is a Victim of the Americans'
Drieu Godefridi/Gatestone Institute/October 04/2022
In this thesis [by Andrew Korybko, a 'Moscow-based analyst' financed by Russia's autocratic government], which charges Europe with being the victim of an American plot, everything is false.
The truth is that Europe is a victim only of itself.
It was not the Americans who destroyed the German, French or Belgian nuclear capabilities.
It was not the Americans who banned the exploitation of shale gas in Europe.
The truth is that Europe has destroyed much of its ability to supply itself with natural gas.
Is it not high time for Europeans finally to face up to their responsibilities?
The truth is that Europe is a victim only of itself. It was not the Americans who destroyed the German, French or Belgian nuclear capabilities. Pictured: The entrance of the Flamanville nuclear power plant, one of dozens of nuclear power plants in France that have been shut down for extended periods this year, in order to undergo urgent maintenance and repairs. (Photo by Sameer Al-Doumy/AFP via Getty Images)
A common line of argument between Russian state propaganda and American conspiracy circles is proliferating these days, namely: the war in Ukraine was allegedly fomented by the Americans to destroy Europe.
For example, the American conspiracy website Revolver News easily refers to the geostrategic considerations of a leading expert on the war in Ukraine, Andrew Korybko. Incidentally, Korybko is also a 'Moscow-based analyst' financed by Russia's autocratic government: a mere detail.
In this thesis, which charges Europe with being the victim of an American plot, everything is false. It is a childish and disempowering falsehood -- which makes it attractive to unquestioning minds.
The truth is that Europe is a victim only of itself.
It was not the Americans who destroyed the German, French or Belgian nuclear capabilities.
It was not the Americans who banned the exploitation of shale gas in Europe. The founder and president of Center for Industrial Progress, Alex Epstein, explains:
"As natural gas shortages and skyrocketing prices harm Europe, those most responsible for the crisis—those who oppose the production and transport of natural gas—are trying to shift the blame from themselves by claiming that the situation is 'complex.' But it is not. It is simple: if it had not been for major global restrictions on the production and transport of natural gas, natural gas supply could meet demand....
"What should European nations do about their self-inflicted suffering? One, they should immediately reverse their deadly fracking bans. Two, those who have championed fracking bans should apologize and promise to radically cut their own natural gas use."
The truth is that Europe has destroyed much of its ability to supply itself with natural gas.
It was not the Americans who prohibited Germany from building terminals to import American gas.
It was not the Americans who designed Germany's ultra-"green" Energiewende (energy turnaround).
Was it the Americans who decreed the end of nuclear power in Germany in 2001 by taking control of the minds of then Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and his "green" minister Jürgen Trittin?
Was it the Americans who accelerated Germany's nuclear phase-out in 2011, by hypnotising then Chancellor Angela Merkel?
Was it the Americans who forced the Germans, and thereby the Europeans, to put themselves at the mercy of Moscow, by betting exclusively on Russian gas? In fact, "the Americans" did exactly the opposite: they warned the Germans. "Trump accused Germany of becoming 'totally dependent' on Russian energy at the U.N. The Germans just smirked," reported The Washington Post in 2018.
For the conspiracist, the bigger the story, the better. The destiny of the conspiracist is that he thinks he is smarter, when in fact he is not necessarily dumber, but less informed than the others. The conspiracist does not need the facts; that is how you can recognize him: a tweet, an Odyssey video, a "meme" are all he needs to "prove" his point.
According to a recent report by the RAND Corporation on Russian propaganda:
"Contemporary Russian propaganda is continuous and very responsive to events. Due to their lack of commitment to objective reality... Russian propagandists do not need to wait to check facts or verify claims; they just disseminate an interpretation of emergent events that appears to best favor their themes and objectives. This allows them to be remarkably responsive and nimble, often broadcasting the first 'news' of events (and, with similar frequency, the first news of nonevents, or things that have not actually happened)."
Is it not high time, for Europeans finally to face up to their responsibilities?
*Drieu Godefridi is a jurist (Saint-Louis University of Louvain), a philosopher (Saint-Louis University of Louvain) and a doctor in legal theory (Paris IV-Sorbonne). He is the author of The Green Reich.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Why Biden Is Betting Iran’s Latest Revolution Will Fail
Eli Lake/The Sun/October 04/2022
A new assessment concludes that the regime is prepared to use violence on any scale to crush the uprising now playing out on streets across the nation.
The Biden administration’s latest assessment is that Iran is not on the verge of a regime collapse and will be able to defeat the protesters who have been in the streets for more than two weeks, according to two Congressional staffers briefed on preliminary estimates on the current unrest.
The main reason for the gloomy — not to mention defeatist — outlook for the Iranian resistance is that the Biden administration reckons the regime’s own internal security services are prepared to use violence to quell the uprisings, now in their third week and throughout the country.
This analysis is based partly on recent history. In 2019, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ordered the suppression of uprisings that began that November and continued into 2020. According to Reuters, citing statistics from Iran’s interior ministry, that crackdown claimed more than 1,000 lives.
It appears that the regime will be taking a similar hard line against the demonstrations that began last month after a Kurdish student, Mahsa Amini, died in the custody of the morality police for not properly wearing her hijab. Her death inspired defiance of Iranian religious authority across the country.
On Monday, Mr. Khamenei complained in a speech that the riots in cities and towns were being orchestrated by Zionist and American saboteurs. The assessment that the regime will ultimately prevail helps explain the president’s half-in, half-out approach to the current crisis in Iran.
On the one hand, Mr. Biden has sanctioned the regime’s morality police and approved a license for Elon Musk’s Starlink to provide satellite-based internet to Iran. At the same time, the president’s advisers say they still want to negotiate a nuclear deal with the regime those Mr. Biden claims to support would like to topple.
Any nuclear deal with Iran would enrich the state by unfreezing billions of dollars of oil revenues and the removal of significant sanctions. As I’ve written, the Biden approach won’t work. For now, it’s worth focusing on the assessment that eventually the regime will be able to shoot its way out of its current crisis.
The American government has historically been loath to predict the collapse of authoritarian states challenged by their own people. The CIA famously assessed on the eve of Iran’s revolution that the country was not in a revolutionary or pre-revolutionary state. A declassified CIA assessment sketches why the agency erred.
The assessment, declassified recently, argues that Yank spies considered domestic politics under Shah Reza Pahlavi to be a low reporting priority. Reporting on the Shah’s loosening grip on power did not make it to senior decision makers in the administration of President Carter.
The CIA missed the 1979 revolution with the benefit of a fully staffed American embassy in Tehran. Today, the American government has no such diplomatic presence in Iran. It must rely on the assessments of foreign allies in Iran and on what Iran’s resistance has managed to beam out of the country.
The main reason to be wary of any assessments on the success and failure of the current Iranian revolution is that the most important information is practically unknowable. The Iranian people will succeed if enough officers of the domestic intelligence ministry, national police, and the state-aligned militia side with them.
Put another way, the real competition today in Iran is for the loyalty of the mid-level and senior ranks of the state’s security institutions. Tyrannies fall when the police and the army refuse to fire on the people demonstrating against the tyrant. There is little the CIA can do, and the real push has to be from within.
Who else other than Iranians themselves could, when one stops to think about it, persuade a functionary to side with the women burning their hijabs instead of staying loyal to the Ayatollah? What this means is that the Biden administration has no basis on which to predict defeat of this uprising, and success for its negotiating partners at Geneva.
*Mr. Lake is a contributing editor to Commentary Magazine and the host of the Re-Education Podcast. He was a syndicated columnist for Bloomberg between 2014 and 2022 and a former reporter at the New York Sun, the Daily Beast and the Washington Times.
https://www.nysun.com/article/why-biden-is-betting-irans-latest-revolution-will-fail

Islamist cleric who called for fighting America, suicide bombings, dies in Qatar
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Insight/October 04/2022
An Egyptian cleric who, only five days after 9/11, called on Muslims to “fight the American military” and “fight the U.S. economically and politically,” has died at age 96. Yusuf al-Qaradawi had been living in Doha, where he enjoyed the sponsorship and largesse of gas-rich Qatar. He claimed to oppose autocracies and wanted them replaced by a special brand of “Islamist democracy,” leading many to mistakenly think of him as a moderate and a supporter of liberalization. Qaradawi also argued that Islam sanctioned suicide bombings.
Upon his death, Qatar used its Al-Jazeera network to eulogize Qaradawi, depicting the late cleric as a “scholar, and the founder of a school of moderation based on coupling the teaching of Sharia with the requirements of modern times.”
But, if modernization meant tolerating secular influence, especially from the West, there is no indication that Qaradawi ever supported it. On the contrary, Qaradawi wished to isolate the Muslim world from Western influence. Three days before he died, Qaradawi tweeted (in Arabic) that “a Muslim should not forget that Islam is complete, that we are not slaves of Western civilization, that we have our religion and the West has its religion.” Qaradawi viewed the world as monolithic blocs. He did not seem to imagine that Muslims lived in the West, or that native Arabic-speaking Jews and Christians had been living in Muslim countries long before Islam.
As a leading figure in the Muslim Brotherhood, the organization that assassinated Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981 for signing a peace deal with Israel, Qaradawi was forced to live in Qatar, to which he had migrated in 1961. While in exile, he was vocal in his opposition to Egyptian autocracy, advocating for elections. Many Western scholars mistook Qaradawi’s instrumental use of democratic ideas for commitment to liberalism. After the cleric’s death, a UK-based professor of Middle Eastern studies praised Qaradawi for being a voice for “political liberalization of the Islamic world.”
But the democracy that Qaradawi called for was the one imagined by the Muslim Brotherhood and endorsed by the Islamic Republic of Iran. Qaradawi argued that “democracy stipulated that the religion of the state is Islam, that Sharia is the source of legislation.” He also said that democracy mandated the creation of morality police that would “promote virtue and prevent vice.”
In the 1990s, the Muslim Brotherhood’s understanding of democracy as a “one man, one vote, one time,” led to a veritable civil war in Algeria. In Iran, Islamist “democracy” has resulted in at least two popular uprisings against the ruling clerics since 2009, which they put down with extreme violence. Over the past two weeks, Tehran has been busy suppressing a third one.
Qatar was not alone in expressing sadness for Qaradawi’s death. The “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan,” the name the Taliban chooses for its ruling regime, issued a statement lamenting his passing. In Gaza, Hamas eulogized Qaradawi, saying “it had always been his wish to join [Palestinians] in their jihad,” and promising to continue the fight “until the liberation of Palestine,” that is, the destruction of Israel. Qaradawi endorsed Hamas’ suicide bombings against Israelis, even if they killed non-combatant women and children.
Unlike Qatar, the Taliban and Hamas, many Arabs on social media were not impressed by the late Egyptian cleric and accused him of “rejecting the pillars of Islam, as illustrated by his claim that the Hajj (pilgrimage) to Mecca, is not mandatory.”
Media outlets associated with Qatar’s Arab rivals — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt — such as the Saudi channel Al-Arabiya, succinctly reported Qaradawi’s death without much commentary. Given that Al-Arabiya had in the past described Qaradawi as “the top advocate of suicide bombings,” it seems that Qatar’s rivals decided to hold back on their criticism of Qaradawi, perhaps to avoid tension with Doha.
Qaradawi was controversial, radical, and an Islamist firebrand. In life, as in death, Muslims and Arabs have been divided over his legacy. What is certain is that the man left behind a vast archive of statements in which he called for violence and the establishment of a radical theology in the image of Iran’s Islamist republic, a troublemaking regime that has been destabilizing the Middle East and Gulf region for decades.
Perhaps Qaradawi did not have Iran’s ability to deploy militias, but he commanded a sophisticated soft power that Qatar had put at his disposal, one that has done a considerable amount of damage to the region and the world.
*Hussain Abdul-Hussain is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy. Follow Hussain on Twitter @hahussain.

Initial Glimpses Into the Reconfiguration of International Order
Nadim Koteich/Asharq Al-Awsat/October 04/2022
Whether it is brief or continues for an extended period, the world is undergoing an exceptional moment that can be summed up in a scene we will almost inevitably see: Moscow and Tehran drowning in crises of their own making.
I do not remember ever seeing the ice-cold face Putin puts on in front of the camera change as it did while he chanted for Russia at the end of the ceremony in which the agreements to annex four Ukrainian regions to Russia (Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhya) were signed. It is as though the intention was for the noise of the chants and applause inside one of the Kremlin’s halls to prevent the noise of the Russian army’s retreat as Ukrainian forces (with the support of Washington and NATO, which are providing it with supplies and money, as well as coordinating with it on strategy and providing it with information) continue their counter-offensive from being heard.
Threatening to use nuclear weapons as his army suffers setbacks on the ground indicates the extent of Putin’s apprehension regarding his military operation. This anxiety is shared by segments of the population, as was reflected in the panic that struck Russian families after partial mobilization to support the war effort had been announced. A quote attributed to the ferocious Russian opposition figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky has been spreading like wildfire: “Russia is most likely the first and only country in the world where people flee not because someone invaded their country, but because they invaded another country.”
It is well known that wars are fought in rounds and that what we will see on the battlefield tomorrow could be the opposite of what we are seeing today. It seems that this is not limited to the battlefield either.
Despite all the fuss about the emergence of a new alliance on the international scene and the exaggerations in analyzing the ongoing meetings and summits, a closer look into the stances that have been taken on the matter demonstrates that the Chinese- Indian alignment with Russia is undermined by several considerations, weakening its effectiveness and thereby establishing a new and sustainable international balance.
At meetings of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in the Uzbek capital of Samarkand, Putin, as he praised Beijing’s “balanced” position on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, was obliged to tell his Chinese counterpart that he understands that China has “questions and concerns in this regard.”
In the same meeting, Putin heard his Indian counterpart seemingly reprimand him; “I know that today’s era is not an era of war, and I have spoken to you on the phone about this,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi said.
China and India have benefited from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, buying Russian oil at a sharp discount. They also enjoyed seeing the scale of the insult directed at “American arrogance” through this war. Both have bet on changes inevitably striking the make-up of the international order, its balances, and the manner in which roles are divided within international institutions. However, in contrast to Russia, they do not want to bring this order that has benefited them down in a chaotic and desperate manner.
Moreover, New Delhi and Beijing’s skepticism of one another is far too great to allow for the emergence of grounded axes or to be dispelled by fleeting alignments regarding the Russian-Ukrainian conflict- let alone dispel India’s anxiety over Russia turning into a card China can play. Indeed, India has begun reducing its volume of trade with Russia and seeking new suppliers of weaponry and energy.
Even when China and India abstained in the vote for a resolution condemning Moscow’s annexation of the four Ukrainian regions, they followed their abstentions with precise statements. China’s delegation to the United Nations asserted that “sovereignty and territorial integrity must be safeguarded,” while India called for an immediate ceasefire and respect for “the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries.”
The recalibration of these great powers eight months into conflict also applies to the Gulf states, which have a massive influence on energy markets. The same is true for Israel, whose “Westernness” would confound the Western powers on both sides of the Atlantic if it goes too far to appease and grants Putin a degree of political and moral legitimacy that he should not enjoy.
Regarding the Gulf, the visit that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made to a number of Gulf capitals introduced a different kind of dialogue between Europe and the Gulf countries. It revolves around the roles that these countries could play in meeting their international responsibility to confront the “militarization of energy” by Russia after it cut gas supplies to Europe to achieve political objectives. The Emiratis and Germans signed a new Energy Security and Industry Accelerator (ESIA) Agreement, through which the former will begin supplying the latter with liquified natural gas by the end of the year and up to 250 thousand tons of diesel a month effective immediately and throughout 2023.
We are looking at the reconfiguration of the international system that is moving at a slow pace but taking a steady course- at least the way Russia understands its reconfiguration, that is, undermining all the pillars of the international order and all the foundations of its legitimacy.
As for Iran, its situation is incomparably worse. Unprecedented protests flared in the country after Mahsa Amini’s murder, and they swiftly morphed into a counter-revolution against the regime as a whole and all of its major figures.
The Iranians’ revolt is complemented by what is happening in Iraq and, to a lesser extent, Lebanon. In both, the Iranian project seems besieged either by serious and determined opposition, the flagrant political, service, financial and economic failures of the clients of Iran who hold power, or both at the same time.
That is happening as the health of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei deteriorates. His illness has become a metaphor for the failure of his revolutionary regime itself, as though Khamenei’s frailty is nothing more than the embodiment of the frailty of the revolution’s regime, its institutions, ideas and project.
The staggering of the regime fueling unrest in the region and the regime stirring trouble internationally constitutes an unprecedented turning point in the history of international balances of power that is paving the way for a new stage. It is difficult to imagine the final form it will take. However, what we know for sure is that the West has all the tools it needs to be the decisive partner in shaping this future and its rules, as well as to make all the concessions necessary for reconsidering global security and stability. US President Joe Biden has put forward the idea that a reform of the Security Council is needed in what was a double-edged statement. On the one hand, it warned China that playing an international role would require it to behave more responsibly. On the other hand, it tempts India to believe that its longstanding demands to be treated in a manner proportional to its size are not falling on deaf ears.
These are early glimpses into what will change in the world- changes that, among many other factors, the policies of Iran and Russia have contributed to.
The paradox, however, is that while the behavior of these two states has changed much of the rules that govern the world, perhaps laying the groundwork for the emergence of a new world, these two countries’ regimes will likely not be part of it.