English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 04/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Woe to you who are full now, for you will be hungry. ‘Woe to you who are laughing now, for you will mourn and weep
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 06/20-26/:”Jesus looked up at his disciples and said: ‘Blessed are you who are poor, for yours is the kingdom of God. ‘Blessed are you who are hungry now, for you will be filled. ‘Blessed are you who weep now, for you will laugh. ‘Blessed are you when people hate you, and when they exclude you, revile you, and defame you on account of the Son of Man. Rejoice on that day and leap for joy, for surely your reward is great in heaven; for that is what their ancestors did to the prophets. ‘But woe to you who are rich, for you have received your consolation. ‘Woe to you who are full now, for you will be hungry. ‘Woe to you who are laughing now, for you will mourn and weep. ‘Woe to you when all speak well of you, for that is what their ancestors did to the false prophets.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 03-04/2022
Aoun chairs meeting of technical committee for maritime demarcation: Mikati says position united for Lebanon’s interest, Berri says atmosphere...
Aoun says no partnership with Israel as Israelis discuss Qana with TotalEnergies
President Aoun meets French Foreign Affairs Ministry’s MENA Director: Lebanon will determine its position regarding Hochstein’s proposals in...
Bou Saab says Israel deal possible within days as leaders meet in Baabda
Report: 5 ministers to be changed, new govt. will be formed
Berri broaches general situation with French Foreign Affairs Ministry’s MENA Director, meets Pakistani Ambassador, MP Abou Faour
Berri says to call for presidential vote session before mid-October
Depositor storms BLOM Bank in Haret Hreik, takes $11,750
Lebanon to send remarks on US draft on maritime border with Israel
Lapid to Netanyahu: Don’t join 'Nasrallah's propaganda'
Lapid blasts Netanyahu, says Israel received 100% security guarantees
Netanyahu says won't be bound by Lebanon deal if elected
Lebanon's maritime border plan caught in Israeli electoral feuding
Lebanon Mulls Response to US-mediated Maritime Border Proposal
Lapid blasts Netanyahu, says Israel received 100% security guarantees/Jerusalem Post/October 03/2022
Lebanese, Israeli tensions over gas extraction at border raise strategic questions/Riad Kahwaji/Breaking Defense/October 03/2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 03-04/2022
US Denies Releasing Iranian Funds Held Abroad in Exchange for Setting Namazi Free
Iran's supreme leader breaks silence on protests, blames US
Khamenei sees US, Israeli plot behind Iran protests over Amini's death
Iran’s Sunni Leader Accuses Regime Snipers of Shooting at Demonstrators
Canada imposes fresh sanctions on Iran citing death of Mahsa Amini
Ukraine Claws Back More Territory Russia Is Trying to Annex
Report: Russia smuggling Ukrainian grain to help pay for Putin's war
Erdogan Vows to Send Back 1 Million Syrian Refugees Voluntarily
Erdogan Addresses Egyptian-Turkish Ties, Cairo Doesn’t Anticipate Any Progress
Settlers Ask Lapid not to Join EU-Israeli Association Council

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 03-04/2022
They're Redistributing Wealth, Not Fighting Inflation/Daniel Greenfield/Gatestone Institute/October 03/2022
Trouble at home will hinder Iran’s export of its revolution/Zaid M. Belbagi/Arab News/October 03/2022
Russia Will Use Its Ally, a Nuclear-Armed Iran, to Better Threaten the West/Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/October 03/2022
An Ancient Hate: Why Armenia Will Never Know Peace from Surrounding Islam/Raymond Ibrahim//October 03/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 03-04/2022
Aoun chairs meeting of technical committee for maritime demarcation: Mikati says position united for Lebanon’s interest, Berri says atmosphere...
NNA/October 03, 2022
The meeting called for by the President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, at Baabda Palace, was attended by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Najib Mikati, to discuss the offer of the American mediator Amos Hochstein, on demarcate the southern maritime borders, has led to the adoption of the observations made by the Technical Committee for Demarcation of the Borders, which affirmed the Lebanese constants that have been adopted since the start of negotiations, preserves Lebanon's rights and secures its interests.
It was an affirmation of the unity of the Lebanese position regarding Hochstein's offer, which will be delivered to the American mediator within the next few hours.
In accordance with these observations, amendments were made to the American offer, which will be received by Hochstein and transferred to the Israeli side.
A meeting early afternoon at 1:00pm in Baabda Palace was chaired by President Aoun in preparation for his meeting with Speaker Berri and PM Mikati, which joined members of the Technical Committee for the Demarcation of Maritime Borders, consisting of: Deputy Speaker of Parliament Elias Bousaab, former Minister Salim Jreissati, Director General of General Security Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim, Director General of the Presidency of the Republic, Dr. Antoine Choucair, Adviser to Parliament Speaker Ali Hamdan, Member of the Petroleum Sector Administration, Wissam Shabat, Head of the Hydrography Department in the Navy, Lt. Col. Afif Ghaith.
During the meeting, the remarks of Presidents Aoun, Berri and Mikati on the presentation of the American mediator dealt with technical and legal points througj a unified position.
At 3:00 pm, PM Mikati and Speaker Berri met at Baabda Palace with the President of the Republic, then were joined by the members of the Technical Committee who presented the consolidated version of the remarks adopted by President Aoun Speaker Berri and PM Mikati.
Speaker Berri, told reporters on his departure in response to their question: "The position is one and united, and this is what is important." adding that the atmosphere is positive.
PM Mkati said after the meeting: “ we had some remarks, turns out that the technical committee has dealt all of them and we will have a response to the American mediator.
Deputy Speaker Bou Saab told journalists aftet the meeting: "We are proud that this meeting, which everyone was waiting for, consolidated a unified Lebanese position, and was one of the strength factors that Lebanon enjoyed during the negotiation period that brought us to the current situation.
The technical team who that met today was also unified om all the remarks. It was clear to us that we all have the same stands, and they were unified to submit a report soon and send it to the American mediator as a response to the last proposal.
The report is ready to be submitted, and I expect that it will be ready tomorrow at the latest, to be received by the American mediator, and in light of that he will make amendments to present to the other side.
We hope to get the final answer before the end this week, after which the unified final Lebanese position will be issued.”
Answering a question, Mr. Bou Saab said: “Yes, today we gave an answer to the proposal submitted with the unified amendments and remarks, thus, we await the final presentation, which will take into account our remarks. We did not expect and never said that we would immediately accept the offer that we will receive and sign, but as it is said,-the devils lie in the details.
Asked if Israel has will receive compensation from the Qanafield, and the Presidency of the Republic has rejected this matter. Can the other party modify these things?
Deputy Speaker Biu Saab answered: “ nothing has changed regarding the President’s position on the issue.
Question: If things go as they should, will the signing of a treaty or agreement be to present it to the Council of Ministers and then the Parliament? There is a message from Lebanon to the United Nations about a disputed area south of the 23rd line. Is this message still valid?
Mr. Bou Saad answered: “I do not want to go into details, but the disputed areas remain a subject of dispute until a decision is made. As for the issue of signing, we do not recognize the Israeli enemy and therefore there is no treaty or agreement. This is a subject that has certain arrangements, and the American mediator was keen on the privacy of Lebanon from this point of view and his proposal takes into consideration this privacy.
There is a clear and explicit mechanism in the terms that deals with this issue with clear guarantees .
Question: Are there American guarantees in light of the Israeli statements in the past couple of days ?
Mr. Bou Saab said: I do not wish to comment on what the Israelis are saying, but they all know the strength of Lebanon.
Question: What is the strength of Lebanon?
He replied: The source of strength is known. We have been in conflict with the Israeli enemy for a long time, and I do not wish to speak from this podium because my words represent me personally and stem from a conviction of what brought us here during the negotiations. There is a balance in the interaction between Lebanon and the Israeli enemy, whether we like it or not, and this balance was established in a period of time by the equation of the army, the people and the resistance, this matter exists, but the negotiation proceeded in a diplomatic manner and we did not provoke anyone, and we do not want to negotiate out of force because it undermines the negotiations. The other party considers that it has the power to take what it wants in the negotiations.
As for the second reason that gave strength to Lebanon, it is the unity of the position. Today, His Excellency the President was keen on it during today’s meeting.
Our unity and unified position are a major source of strength that has been translated into the result we have reached.
He concluded: “Sovereignty over the exclusive economic zone of Lebanon belongs to Lebanon. As for the Qana field, we have no coordinates to know where this line ends on the other side, but with regard to the wealth it contains, Lebanon will get its full share.”--Presidency Press Office

Aoun says no partnership with Israel as Israelis discuss Qana with TotalEnergies
Naharnet/October 03, 2022
President Michel Aoun announced Monday that there will be no “partnership” with Israel in the offshore gas fields, as an Israeli media report said Israel is discussing its “share” in Lebanon’s Qana field with French oil giant TotalEnergies. “Lebanon will today decide its stance on the written proposal presented by U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein in consultation with Speaker Nabih Berri and PM-designate Najib Mikati and in light of the observations of the technical committee formed for this purpose,” Aoun said in a Baabda meeting with Anne Gueguen, the head of the MENA region at the French foreign ministry. He added that over the past months he was “keen on guaranteeing Lebanon’s rights in its waters and on providing the appropriate circumstances for the launch of exploration operations in the oil and gas fields specified in the exclusive economic zone, which the TotalEnergies firm is supposed to begin.”Stressing that “there won’t be any partnership with the Israeli side,” Aoun hoped exploration in Lebanon’s waters would “represent a positive beginning that would help Lebanon’s economy rise once again after the deterioration of the past years.”Israel's state-run radio network meanwhile reported that the director general of Israel’s energy ministry was discussing with TotalEnergies Israel's “share” from the Qana field revenues.

President Aoun meets French Foreign Affairs Ministry’s MENA Director: Lebanon will determine its position regarding Hochstein’s proposals in...
NNA/October 03, 2022  
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, met the Director of Africa and the Middle East at the French Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs, Ms. ANNA Gueguen, at Baabda Palace, in the presence of the French Ambassador in Beirut, Ms. Anne Grillo.
President Aoun told Ms. Gueguen that he hopes that the presidential elections will take place within the specified constitutional deadline so that he could hand over the new president at the beginning of his term on the first of next November.
The President also considered that the election of the new president is the responsibility of the MPswho must determine their options in this regard, and affirmed that he is keen to achieve the reforms that Lebanon promised the International Monetary Fund to achieve, especially reconsidering the restructuring of Lebanese banks and "Capital Control" and amending the banking secrecy law, after Parliament approved the budget law for the year 2022.
On the other hand, the President indicated that contacts are on-going to form a new government after overcoming the obstacles that have so far prevented its formation.
Moreover, President Aoun clarified that on the subject of indirect negotiations to demarcate the southern maritime borders, Lebanon will determine its position on the content of the presentation presented by the American mediator, Amos Hochstein, which included proposals under study today, in consultation with the Speaker of Parliament and the Prime Minister, and in light of the observations of the technical committee formed for this purpose.
In this context, the President indicated that he has been keen over the past months to guarantee Lebanon’s rights to its waters and to provide the appropriate conditions to start exploration operations in the oil and gas fields specified in the exclusive economic zone in which the French company "Total" is supposed to start, stressing that there will be no partnership with the Israeli side.
Moreover, President Aoun expressed his hope that the start of oil exploration in the southern water fields would be a positive start that would help the Lebanese economy to rise again after the decline that occurred during the past years.
Finally, President Aoun stressed that forensic audit in Central Bank accounts is continuing, and it is part of the anti-corruption process that started with the beginning of the era six years ago and stumbled several times due to the pressures exerted by those involved in corruption operations at all levels.
For her part, Mrs. GUEGUEN assured President Aoun of France’s keenness to continue to help Lebanon in various fields and that attention to Lebanese affairs is a priority of the French government, stressing the importance of holding the presidential elections on their constitutional date in order to prevent any vacuum at the presidential level, and to implement reforms and agreement with the International Monetary Fund. Mrs. GUEGUEN also considered that reaching an agreement on the issue of the southern maritime demarcation is a message of confidence to the international community in Lebanon, which will have positive effects on Lebanese national economy. -- Presidency Press Office

Bou Saab says Israel deal possible within days as leaders meet in Baabda
Agence France Presse/October 03, 2022
President Michel Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri and PM-designate Najib Mikati held a meeting Monday in Baabda to discuss a U.S. proposal to demarcate the maritime border with Israel -- a step that could allow both countries to explore offshore resources. The meeting followed another by a Lebanese technical team and advisors to Aoun, Berri and Mikati. The technical team later joined the meeting of the three leaders. “Things are on the right track and Lebanon’s stance is unified,” Mikati said after the talks. “I had some observations and so did Speaker Berri and the technical committee endorsed them. The main pillars and basics won’t be touched and things are facilitated,” Mikati added. Berri for his part said that the meeting was positive and that Lebanon’s stance is unified. “Things are fast-paced and it is possible to sign the agreement with the Israeli side within days,” Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab for his part said. Asked about the reports that Israel will obtain a share from the Qana field revenues, Bou Saab said: “Lebanon has got its full rights in the Qana field and I won’t say more.” “The technical team unified all the stances and we unified all the observations in order to submit a report to the mediator and we hope that (U.S. mediator Amos) Hochstein will receive the Lebanese response tomorrow,” Bou Saab added. “In light of this, he will present it to the other side and we hope to receive an answer by the end of the week,” Bou Saab said. He also clarified that the Lebanese response is not final but rather in response to the proposal submitted Saturday by Hochstein.
“The devil in the details has become small and not big,” Bou Saab added. Bou Saab did not elaborate on Lebanon's feedback but said they included "legal and logical" notes. LBCI television meanwhile reported that the Lebanese observations have been divided into three categories: “essential, ordinary and trivial that can be ignored.”“The participants in the meetings stressed that all these observations should not affect the signing of the agreement between the Lebanese and Israeli sides,” LBCI added. The draft agreement floated by Hochstein aims to settle competing claims over offshore gas fields and was delivered to Lebanese and Israeli officials at the weekend. Washington's offer has not been made public, but it has raised hopes that a deal could be reached after years of negotiations.
An agreement would mark a crucial step for Lebanon as it grapples with its worst-ever economic crisis. Lebanon and Israel are officially at war and their land border is patrolled by the United Nations. They reopened negotiations on their maritime border in 2020, but the process was stalled by Lebanon's demand that the map used by the U.N. in the talks be modified. The negotiations resumed in early June after Israel moved a production vessel near the Karish offshore field. The most recent proposal by Washington was welcomed by both Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah, which considers Israel its arch-enemy. Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who had repeatedly threatened Israel with attacks if it proceeds with extraction in disputed areas before a deal is reached, welcomed Saturday's developments as "a very important step." Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid also welcomed the agreement, which he said grants Israel full claim over the disputed Karish field as well as profits from the nearby "Sidon reservoir", known as the Qana field, which will fall to Lebanon. Lapid on Monday said on Twitter that "Israel gets 100 percent of its security needs, 100 percent of Karish and even some of the profits from the Lebanese reservoir." But Aoun on Monday said "there will be no partnership with the Israel," while Bou Saab insisted Lebanon will have "full rights over Qana." In the event that a final agreement is reached, Lebanon will not sign a treaty with Israel, given that the two sides are still at war, Bou Saab said. Instead, a mechanism will be put in place to register the demarcation with the United Nations.

Report: 5 ministers to be changed, new govt. will be formed
Naharnet/October 03, 2022
The expected governmental reshuffle might expand to target five portfolios, informed sources have said. The reshuffle “will not stop at replacing the economy and displaced ministers but will also target three other portfolios: youth and sports, social affair and foreign affairs,” the sources told al-Joumhouria newspaper in remarks published Monday. Sources informed on the cabinet formation process meanwhile stressed that “the formation will take place prior to the expiry of President (Michel) Aoun’s term.”
“The delay is deliberate for three essential reasons:
- The first is aimed at shortening the term of the new government in order not to allow Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Jebran Bassil to take the appointments package that he wants.
- The second is due to the fact that time is playing against the presidential tenure (of Aoun) and negotiations will push him to accept minimal rather than maximal gains.
- The third is a political message addressed to the Presidency that its validity has expired and that responding positively to the formation efforts comes at the desire of Hezbollah and not the Presidency,” the sources added.

Berri broaches general situation with French Foreign Affairs Ministry’s MENA Director, meets Pakistani Ambassador, MP Abou Faour
NNA/October 03, 2022
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Monday received at the Second Presidency in Ain al-Tineh, the Director of the North Africa and Middle East Department at the French Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs, Anne Gueguen, with an accompanying delegation, in the presence of French Ambassador to Lebanon, Anne Grillo. Discussions reportedly touched on the current general situation, and the bilateral relations between the two countries. Speaker Berri also met with Pakistani Ambassador to Lebanon, Salman Athar, over the bilateral relations between Lebanon and Pakistan. Berri later met with MP Wael Abou Faour, over the latest political developments and an array of legislative affairs.

Berri says to call for presidential vote session before mid-October
Naharnet/October 03, 2022
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has said that he will call for a second presidential election session before the middle of the current month. “All parties must shoulder their responsibilities regarding this juncture,” Berri added, in remarks to Annahar newspaper published Monday. He also clarified that his call for “consensus” over a president “does not stand for the unanimity of the 128 MPs.” The Lebanese parliament on Thursday held a first presidential election round in which no candidate managed to garner 86 votes needed to win from the first round. As 63 MPs cast blank ballots, 36 voted for MP Michel Mouawad, 11 voted for entrepreneur and philanthropist Salim Edde and 10 voted for "Lebanon". Dozens of MPs walked out of the session after the results of the first round were announced, stripping the second round of the needed 86-MP quorum. This prompted Berri to announce that he will not call for another session before "consensus" is secured over a certain candidate. The Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb Party, the Progressive Socialist Party and a number of MPs and small blocs had announced prior to the session that they would vote for Mouawad. The Change bloc meanwhile said that it would vote for Edde. Hezbollah, Berri’s bloc, the Free Patriotic Movement and their allies meanwhile cast blank ballots. Deep divisions among MPs have raised fears that Lebanon could be left without a president for months after President Michel Aoun's mandate runs out at the end of October. The incumbent's own election in 2016 came after a 29-month vacancy at the presidential palace as lawmakers made 45 failed attempts to reach consensus on a candidate. In the first round of voting, a two-thirds majority of 86 votes is required for a candidate to win. When the election goes to a second round, the required majority falls to 65. The international community has pressed Lebanese lawmakers to elect a new president in "timely" fashion to avoid plunging the country deeper into crisis.

Depositor storms BLOM Bank in Haret Hreik, takes $11,750
Naharnet/October 03, 2022
Four individuals stormed BLOM Bank’s branch in Haret Hreik on Monday and managed to take their deposit, worth $11,000, prior to the arrival of the army, the National News Agency said.
The Depositors Outcry Association meanwhile announced that “the depositor Zaher Khawaja has liberated $11,750 from the aforementioned bank” and that he “still has $750” in his account.
Lebanon’s banks had partially reopened last Monday after a weeklong closure that followed a wave of heists in which assailants stormed at least seven bank branches demanding to withdraw their trapped savings.

Lebanon to send remarks on US draft on maritime border with Israel
Reuters/October 03, 2022
BEIRUT: Lebanon will send its comments on a US proposal to delineate its maritime border with longtime foe Israel to the American official mediating talks by Tuesday, a top Lebanese official said on Monday. US envoy Amos Hochstein has shuttled between Lebanon and Israel since 2020 to seal a deal that would pave the way for offshore energy exploration and defuse a potential source of conflict between Israel and Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah. Hochstein sent a written draft proposal to Beirut last week. It was discussed on Monday by President Michel Aoun, Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. The three would pull together their concerns on the draft to send to Hochstein within 24 hours and would not respond officially to the proposals until their queries were addressed, said Elias Bou Saab, Berri’s deputy and the main pointperson for the file in Lebanon. “The devils are in the details, but the devils are now small,” said Bou Saab, speaking to journalists after the top officials met. The 10-page draft appears to float an arrangement whereby gas would be produced by a company under a Lebanese license in the disputed Qana prospect, with Israel receiving a share of revenues. Few other details have been made public, but Bou Saab said on Monday that the arrangement secures all of Lebanon’s rights in relation to Qana and Mikati said that the draft included “all essential matters.”
Bou Saab said he expected a response by Hochstein by the end of the week, and said only then could Lebanon prepare an official response. Israel has said its own legal experts are also reviewing the draft before it can be approved.
Israeli media reported that the cabinet will meet on Thursday to approve the deal, but no session is formally scheduled. A senior Israeli official told Reuters that it was not yet clear when the government would take that step, as it awaited word of Lebanon’s response. “If they come back with changes — other than small, technical things — it may not be done by Thursday,” the official said. A top Lebanese source briefed on the negotiations said that if an agreement is reached, it would come into force via a ceremony in the southern Lebanese border town of Naqoura. The mechanisms are not clear, but Aoun said there would be “no partnership” with the Israeli said. While the company carrying out the exploration in Qana has been officially named, Lebanese officials have publicly suggested a role for TotalEnergies SE and a top Israeli official was meeting company representatives in Paris on Monday, according to a source briefed on the matter. Israel’s energy ministry confirmed that its director-general Lior Schillat, who also heads Israel’s negotiating team, was in Paris for discussions on Monday.
TotalEnergies declined to comment.

Lapid to Netanyahu: Don’t join 'Nasrallah's propaganda'
Naharnet/October 03, 2022
Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid on Monday hit out at opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu over the latter’s criticism of the emerging sea border deal with Lebanon. “Some facts for Netanyahu, simply because he did not see the agreement: Israel receives 100% of its security needs, 100% of the Karish field and even some of the profits of the Lebanese field,” Lapid tweeted. “I understand that it hurts you that you were not able to reach such an agreement, but that is no reason to join (Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan) Nasrallah's propaganda,” Lapid added. “It is possible to praise a government that works and brings results to the people of Israel,” Lapid went on to say, addressing his electoral rival Netanyahu. Netanyahu, under whom the sea border talks with Lebanon began in 2020 and who is hoping to return to power in November elections, has said that he opposes the emerging deal and wouldn't be bound by it if reelected.

Lapid blasts Netanyahu, says Israel received 100% security guarantees
Jerusalem Post/October 03/2022
Under the maritime border deal, revealed on Sunday, Israel will receive royalties from gas that Lebanon extracts in the disputed area of the Mediterranean Sea. Prime Minister Yair Lapid slammed back at Opposition Leader Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday, saying that the Likud leader did not understand the details of the new gas deal between Israel and Lebanon. Under the deal, revealed on Sunday, Israel will receive royalties from gas that Lebanon extracts in the disputed area of the Mediterranean Sea. “Some facts for Netanyahu, simply because he did not see the agreement” Israel receives 100% of its security needs, 100% of the Karish field and even some of the profits of the Lebanese reservoir,” Lapid said on Monday morning. “I understand that it hurts you that you were not able to reach such an agreement, but that is no reason to join Nasrallah's propaganda. It is possible to praise a government that works and brings results to the people of Israel.” Both sides received a proposed economic waters agreement over the weekend from US Energy Envoy Amos Hochstein, who has traveled repeatedly between Beirut and Jerusalem over the past year to negotiate the deal. The deal will have Israel concede the entire triangle of economic waters that had been in dispute with Lebanon in 2012-2021, but not the extended triangle that Lebanon demanded in early 2021. It will also allow Lebanon to develop the entire Kana Field, which extends South into what would be Israeli waters. Netanyahu accused Lapid of surrendering to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and his threats to attack Israel. “Yair Lapid shamefully surrendered to [Hezbollah leader Hassan] Nasrallah’s threats,” Netanyahu stated. “He is giving Hezbollah sovereign territory of the State of Israel with a huge gas reservoir that belongs to you, the citizens of Israel.”

Netanyahu says won't be bound by Lebanon deal if elected
Agence France Presse/October 03/2022
Israeli opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu, under whom the sea border talks with Lebanon began in 2020 and who is hoping to return to power in November elections, has said that he opposes the emerging gas fields deal and wouldn't be bound by it if reelected. Israel’s caretaker premier Yair Lapid is hoping to fend off Netanyahu in the polls. "Lapid has no mandate to give sovereign territory and sovereign assets that belong to all of us to an enemy state," Netanyahu said. Lapid hit back at Netanyahu, saying the deal would preserve Israel’s security, grant it the entire Karish field and also revenues from Lebanon’s Qana field.

Lebanon's maritime border plan caught in Israeli electoral feuding
AP/October 03/2022
Israel's prime minister on Sunday welcomed the US proposal for setting the maritime border with Lebanon, but the US mediated deal was immediately confronted by the objections of opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu amid a heated Israeli election campaign. Prime Minister Yair Lapid said the proposal was delivered over the weekend to both Israel and Lebanon. While he explained that it was still being studied, he said the plan would strengthen Israel's northern areas near the Lebanese border, allow Israel to produce additional natural gas and deliver new revenues to the national coffers. “This is a deal that strengthens Israel’s security and Israel's economy,” Lapid told his cabinet. He also said Israel would not oppose the development of “an additional Lebanese gas field” straddling the maritime border, as long as Israel receives “the share we deserve.” He said this would weaken Lebanon's dependence on Iran, restrain the Hezbollah militant group and promote regional stability. He said the deal was being reviewed by legal and defence officials before it is to be voted upon by the government. Israeli media said a vote could take place Thursday. On Saturday, the proposal was also delivered to Lebanese leaders. Israeli opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu, under whom the negotiations began in 2020 and who is hoping to return to power in November elections, said he opposed the emerging deal and would not be bound by it if reelected. Lapid, the country's caretaker premier, is hoping to fend off Netanyahu in the polls. “Lapid has no mandate to give sovereign territory and sovereign assets that belong to all of us to an enemy state,” Netanyahu said. Lebanon and Israel have been officially at war since Israel’s creation in 1948 and both countries claim some 860 square kilometres of the Mediterranean Sea. Amos Hochstein, a senior adviser for energy security at the US State Department who has been mediating between the two neighbours, last visited Beirut in September, where he voiced optimism after meeting Lebanon’s leaders. Lebanon's parliament speaker, Nabi Berri, said in an interview with the London-based Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper Saturday the proposal “in principle meets the Lebanese demands.”Lebanon hopes to unleash offshore oil and gas production as it grapples with the worst economic crisis in its modern history, plunging three-quarters of its population into poverty.
A Lebanese official who attended the talks last month told The Associated Press that the proposal put forward by the US envoy gives Lebanon the right to the Qana field, located partially in Israel’s domain. A section of it reaches deep into a disputed area. The official added that the main point now is how to draw the demarcation line in a way that stretches south of Qana. Lapid's comments appeared to be a reference to the emerging agreement over Qana. Israel set up a gas rig at its designated location at the Karish field. Israel says the field is part of its UN-recognised exclusive economic zone, while Lebanon insists Karish is in a disputed area. In July, the Israeli military shot down three unarmed drones belonging to Lebanon’s Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah flying over the Karish field. Hezbollah’s leader has issued warnings to Israel over the maritime dispute, saying that “any arm” that reaches out to steal Lebanon’s wealth “will be cut off.” The heavily-armed group, which has fought several wars with Israel, has repeatedly said in the past that it would use its weapons to protect Lebanon’s economic rights. Hezbollah officials have however said they would endorse a deal reached between Lebanon’s government and Israel. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a speech Saturday echoed similar sentiments to Lebanon’s top political leaders about Hochstein’s proposal and reasserted that the Iran-backed party will support the Lebanese political leadership’s position. “God willing, if it reaches the desired and best result, it would be the result of national unity, cooperation, and solidarity,” he said.

Lebanon Mulls Response to US-mediated Maritime Border Proposal
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 3 October, 2022
Lebanon leaders are holding a meeting Monday to discuss a US proposal to demarcate the maritime border with Israel -- a step that could allow both countries to explore offshore resources. Lebanon said it had received Saturday a written "offer" from US envoy Amos Hochstein - who is mediating talks between the two enemy states - on a proposal to demarcate the maritime border with Israel. The offer was not make public, but it raised hopes that a deal would soon emerge after years of negotiations, as cash-strapped Lebanon eyes potential gas resources in the maritime border area. The US ambassador to Lebanon handed the offer to President Michel Aoun, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and caretaker prime minister Najib Mikati, who represent Lebanon's three major sects. Aoun will meet Berri and Mikati at 3pm local time to discuss Lebanon's "official response to the offer", according to the National News Agency. A technical team that includes army representatives will meet at 1pm at the presidential palace.The most recent proposal was greeted by Israel. Prime Minister Yair Lapid said the bid "strengthens Israel's security and Israel's economy". Lapid appeared to float an arrangement whereby gas would be produced by a company under a Lebanese license in the disputed Qana prospect, with Israel receiving a share of revenues. "We have no opposition to an additional Lebanese gas field being developed, from which we would of course receive royalties due us," he said. "Such a field would weaken Lebanese dependency on Iran, restrain Hezbollah and bring regional stability."

تقرير من جيرزولم بوست يتناول الإتفاق اللبناني الإسرائيلي تحت عنوان: الضمانات الأمنية لإسرائيل والفوائد المالية للبنان ورد لبيد على نيتنياهو
Lapid blasts Netanyahu, says Israel received 100% security guarantees
Jerusalem Post/October 03/2022
Gas deal: Security guarantees for Israel, economic benefits for Lebanon
Lahav Harkon and Anna Ahronheim/Jerusalem Post/October 03/2022
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The maritime border agreement with Lebanon will maintain the Israeli security line in territorial waters; the US and France will be the guarantors. Israel will receive royalties from gas that Lebanon extracts in the disputed area of the Mediterranean Sea, Prime Minister Yair Lapid revealed at Sunday’s cabinet meeting. Both sides received a proposed economic waters agreement over the weekend from US Energy Envoy Amos Hochstein, who has traveled repeatedly between Beirut and Jerusalem over the past year to negotiate the deal. The deal will have Israel concede the entire triangle of economic waters that had been in dispute with Lebanon in 2012-2021, but not the extended triangle that Lebanon demanded in early 2021. It will also allow Lebanon to develop the entire Kana Field, which extends South into what would be Israeli waters. “As we demanded from the first day, [Hochstein’s] offer protects all of Israel’s security and diplomatic interests.”
Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid
What’s in the maritime border deal?
The royalties deal will be worked out in advance between Israel and the gas consortium led by French energy company Total, which has the Lebanese license to extract gas from the Kana field; it will be an agreement on how to calculate the compensation for Israel, since exploration has not yet begun and the amount of gas in the reservoir remains unknown.
In addition, the agreement includes recognition of what Israel calls the “buoys line,” which extends 5 km. into the sea from Rosh Hanikra, on the border with Lebanon. A senior diplomatic source explained that the line was vulnerable because Israel had established it unilaterally as a zone necessary for the Jewish state to have freedom of action for its security, and the agreement with Lebanon will anchor that line in international law.
“Anchoring the ‘buoys line’ as part of the agreement will allow us to treat it as our territorial line in the water, without opposition from UNIFIL,” the source explained. The triangle in dispute for gas extraction purposes begins far beyond 5 km. away from the shore.The agreement will be guaranteed by the United States and France, as the major stakeholder in Total. THE FINAL details of the deal are still under discussion and are being reviewed by legal advisers, as well as Defense Minister Benny Gantz, Alternate Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Attorney-General Gali Baharav-Miara, before being brought to a Security Cabinet meeting on Thursday.
Lapid said Israel has “no opposition to the development of an additional Lebanese reservoir from which we will, of course, receive the royalties we deserve.” A maritime border agreement “will weaken Lebanon’s reliance on Iran, will restrain Hezbollah and will bring regional stability,” the prime minister stated at the cabinet meeting. Despite economic hardships facing its own citizens, Iran sends over $1 billion to its proxy groups, including over $500 million to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Tehran has also offered to send 600,000 tons of fuel to Israel’s northern neighbor over the next five months to help the country. The majority of Lebanese citizens have only one or two hours of state-provided electricity a day, less than even the Hamas-run Gaza Strip. According to Gantz, the agreement does not guarantee that there will be no future conflict with Lebanon, “but there is no doubt that it will strengthen stability, deterrence and, in the long run, will also weaken Lebanon’s dependence on Iran, which supplies it with fuel and other means.”
The prime minister said that, “as we demanded from the first day, [Hochstein’s] offer protects all of Israel’s security and diplomatic interests.” After resolving the maritime border dispute with Lebanon, which has lasted over a decade, Israel’s North will be more secure and the country will be able to extract gas from the Karish reservoir, which abuts the disputed area, bringing more money and energy security to Israel, Lapid argued. This is an agreement whose essence is economic,” Gantz said. “And if it is signed – we, as well as Lebanon and its citizens, who are suffering from a severe crisis, will enjoy it for years to come.” “Beirut didn’t get everything they wanted,” the senior diplomatic source said, adding that they didn’t want Israel to get anything. And while Israel had to compromise, “it’s a compromise that guarantees our security. It’s a deal that is good for both sides.”
LEBANON WILL not recognize Israel in the agreement, nor does it mention land borders, Hezbollah TV channel Al-Manar reported. According to a senior diplomatic source, there is no connection between the maritime deal and future negotiations on the land borders between the two enemy countries. Nasrallah expresses optimism about pending deal. Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the Iran-backed terrorist group Hezbollah, had a positive attitude towards the deal coming together, expressing hope for “a good end that will help the Lebanese and Lebanon.” Nasrallah had previously threatened to attack Israel if it begins extracting gas from the Karish field. According to the senior diplomatic source, Hezbollah was playing with fire with their threats. “Hezbollah certainly has the ability to interfere with the agreement,” he said, while emphasizing that the Iran-backed terrorist group was not a party to the negotiations. Israel sees the rig as a strategic asset several kilometers south of the area over which negotiations are being conducted, and has warned that it will defend it.
Gantz stressed that “the IDF and all of Israel’s security forces are prepared on all fronts, and also in the North to protect the citizens of Israel and our energy assets-regardless of negotiations, all the time, 24/7.” Opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu called the agreement a “surrender to Nasrallah’s threats” and warned that Lapid was planning to use a loophole to not bring it before the Knesset. “Lapid has no mandate to hand over sovereign territories and sovereign assets, which belong to all of us, to an enemy state,” Netanyahu said. In addition, right-wing NGOs have already said they plan to petition the High Court if the maritime border deal is not brought for parliamentary review.
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Lebanese, Israeli tensions over gas extraction at border raise strategic questions
Riad Kahwaji/Breaking Defense/October 03/2022
“In the ongoing confrontations between Israel and Hezbollah/Iran, the former has achieved a tactical success, while the latter has gained a strategic one,” said Gawdat Bahgat of the National Defense University in Washington.
DUBAI — Tensions between Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel appear to be on the rise over a gas-rich, sea-border territory between the two countries, with leaders on both sides threatening harsh retaliation and severe consequences if either side makes a move. Given the rhetoric, there’s a question of whether another full-blown conflict between Israel and Lebanon could be on the horizon.
But experts believe that there is more posturing than real danger over the territory, judging that Israel is content to continue its policy of “campaign between wars” so long as it is achieving its objectives of preventing advanced Iranian weapons from reaching Hezbollah. Meanwhile, despite the usual litany of threats, analysts judge that Hezbollah is hoping Washington will succeed in brokering a border demarcation agreement that will help it escape an undesired conflict — and potentially, fill its coffers with new funds.
The US has been mediating indirect negotiations between Lebanon and Israel to agree on a compromise solution to the claims and counter claims made by each side placing the sea borders deep into each other’s territory. Washington is currently helping to seal a deal that would regard what is known as Line 23 as the border line with a small bulge southward, giving Lebanon control of a gas field in return for giving Israel full claim over the Karish gas field. The Ukrainian war and the subsequent sanctions on Russia has increased Europe’s demand for gas, and the fields of the eastern Mediterranean could help make up for the lack of energy. The US is hoping that a deal would allow international oil and gas companies to start searching extracting much needed gas off the coast of Israel and Lebanon. The question of whether Hezbollah would benefit from such a deal, however, makes it a tricky proposition.
Hezbollah, a Lebanese political party with a massive heavily armed Shiite Muslim militia that is strongly affiliated with the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), has proven over time to be a dangerous adversary to Israel, especially after its fighters put on a strong fight in the “Second Lebanon War” waged by Israel in the summer of 2006.
Hezbollah’s political arm has won seats in Lebanese parliament, is represented in the Lebanese government and is regarded as the main power-broker in the country. Experts believe any effort to forcefully disarm the Shiite group would spark a new Lebanese civil war in the multi-sectarian country.
That may be part of the reason that, for the past 16 years, the battlefront between the two sides in south Lebanon has been largely calm, except for few minor incidents. Instead, the action moved to Syria, where the IRGC has substantially built its military capabilities using Shiite militias established locally with Hezbollah’s help, plus some imported fighters from Iraq. Israeli warplanes have launched dozens of attacks over the past years against the bases of the IRGC militias, mainly targeting shipments of advanced weapons like accurate cruise and ballistic missiles, surface-to-air missiles, anti-ship missiles and drones.
The gas field issue, however, may be upsetting that status quo. In late July, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah issued an ultimatum to Israel, threatening to attack offshore gas rigs in a disputed sea-border territory if Israel proceeds with extracting gas before a border-demarcation agreement with the Lebanese government can be reached.
Notably, Hezbollah has not criticized the Lebanese government for entering into the US-led, indirect talks with Israel to demarcate the sea borders, which led many to conclude that the group supports the efforts that would eventually lead to Lebanon being able to start excavating oil and gas in its own territories — generating substantial income to a bankrupt country. Nasrallah’s high rhetoric instead appears to be meant to enforce the perception that Hezbollah’s military capabilities and saber-rattling is what is forcing Israel to negotiate and make concessions to Lebanon. This serves Hezbollah’s agenda in making its militia a legitimate organization and part of the Lebanese defense establishment. On July 2, Hezbollah sent three drones over the Karish gas platform as a show of defiance and broadcast footage captured by the Iranian-made UAVs before they were shot down by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF).
Israeli officials in return have warned of severe retaliation against Hezbollah and Lebanon if its gas rigs were attacked. The Israeli cabinet has met several times in the past couple of weeks to assess the situation and ordered the military to remain on alert to see whether excavation could start before an agreement is reached with the Lebanese government. But according to Hanin Ghaddar, the Friedmann Fellow at The Washington Institute’s Geduld Program on Arab Politics, despite the rhetoric, Nasrallah actually wants to see a border deal reached between Lebanon and Israel because it will release him of his pledge to attack the Israeli gas platform, which would spark a war.
Nizar Abdel Kader, a retired Lebanese Army Brigadier General and a prominent regional defense expert, believes that despite his threats Nasrallah does not want a war with Israel, both because of Israel’s military superiority and due to the adverse economic conditions, the Lebanese are going through now.
“Hezbollah has not retaliated against Israeli raids on bases for the IRGC and its affiliated militias in Syria because it wants to avoid a showdown with Israel that would bring about huge devastation to the predominantly Shiite areas in southern Lebanon and the Beqaa valley that provide the friendly environment for Hezbollah gunmen to operate,” Abdel Kader said. “If Israel launches a full-scale war on Hezbollah’s areas of control in Lebanon, there will be extensive destruction which will likely cause huge anger within the Shiite community against Hezbollah and Iran.”
“Unlike the war in 2006, this time none of the oil-rich Gulf Arab States will rush to help in the reconstruction of the destroyed homes and infrastructure due to the strained relations between these states and the Iranian-Hezbollah axis. Lebanon is already in a dire economic situation with a bankrupt treasury and hyperinflation,” Abdel Kader told Breaking Defense. However, there are concerns that Nasrallah might fall victim of his own rhetoric if Israel refuses to make concessions. For instance, the drones that flew near the platforms may have been intended as a show of force, but if, say, one had malfunctioned and crashed into the platform, Israel’s response would likely have been much more forceful.
Israel And Campaigns Between Wars
Right now, the border situation is trending in the direction of a compromise. But the threats by Nasrallah have prompted some to wonder whether Israel’s long-standing deterrence strategy, based on the idea of “campaigns between wars” or “war between wars,” remains viable against a bold adversary armed with tens of thousands of artillery rockets and possibly some ballistic missiles and surface-to-surface missiles and many drones. “In the ongoing confrontations between Israel and Hezbollah/Iran, the former has achieved a tactical success, while the latter has gained a strategic one,” said Gawdat Bahgat of the National Defense University in Washington. “Israel has continued its raids against Shiite militias and Iranian targets in Syria and Iraq. Unknown numbers of Iranian and Hezbollah fighters were killed in these raids. However, Iran has managed to maintain the close ties with these militias, expanded its missile and drones programs.”Zohar Palti, the former head of the Political-Military Bureau at the Israeli Ministry of Defense and currently the International Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, sees things differently and argues that the Israeli deterrence policy remains effective.
“For the time being — the war between the wars — is the best and maybe the only strategy that we have, mainly because that the alternative is either to do nothing or to go to a war on a large scale,” Palti said. “Those are not really options because we can’t open a war every couple of months or not even years. We prefer to continue with this strategy. At least for the time being.”
He added that “in Syria it works quite well. The Iranians wanted to be in a different place by now and they are not. Our mission was and still is to prevent third arena [front] where surface to surface missiles and rockets aiming at Israel. So far, we are OK”
Patrick Clawson, the research director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, agrees with Palti. “I have been impressed at how much Israel has been able to slow acquisition by Hezbollah and the Iraniian proxies of precision missiles,” Clawson told Breaking Defense.
“Four years ago, I assumed that by now, Hezbollah et al would possess large numbers of such missiles as well as other game-changing weapons such as accurate drones equipped with large bombs. In fact, the numbers appear to be quite limited,” Clawson said. “My reading is that in part because of the success against the precision missiles project, Israeli circles are rather satisfied with how they are doing with the war between the wars strategy both on the northern and southern [Gaza] fronts.”
But if war was to break out between the two sides, experts believe the military campaign would be different than the last time, and it would likely involve an Israeli ground offensive deep into Lebanese territory to evict Hezbollah fighters and destroy missile depots and tunnels.
“The only way for Israel to stop Hezbollah’s missiles from hitting deep into its territory is to launch a massive land invasion to capture all of south Lebanon and parts of the Beqaa Valley,” Abdel Kader said. “Most public opinion in Lebanon and the Arab world is against Iran and Hezbollah today and this will certainly impact the outcome of the war, including the fate of tens of thousands of Shiites who will be forced to flee their homes and will likely face a hard time finding a friendly hospitable environment to take shelter.”
Bahgat believes the same, saying “the outcome of a military confrontation between Iran/Hezbollah and Israel will depend on which side will be able to impose its way of fighting on the other side. Israel prefers short-term military operations while Iran and its proxies favor a long-term war.”
Abdel Kader, like many other experts, believes that Iran wants to preserve Hezbollah’s military strength as a way to respond if its nuclear facilities came under Israeli attack. Israeli officials have often threatened that if diplomatic efforts to curtail the Iranian nuclear program fail, they will likely resort to the military option to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. “I’m really concerned about the last statement of Nasrallah. We will have to wait and see , it’s not over till it’s over,” Palti said.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 03-04/2022
US Denies Releasing Iranian Funds Held Abroad in Exchange for Setting Namazi Free
Washington - Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 3 October, 2022
The Biden administration has welcomed Iran allowing the US-Iranian dual national Bagher Namazi to leave the country after having banned him from travel for seven years but denied that the release was linked to unfreezing Iranian funds in South Korea. Namazi’s son, Siamak Namazi, was also granted a provisional release from Evin prison. On Sunday, Iranian official media reported that Tehran is expecting the release of a portion of its frozen assets after “the conclusion of negotiations on prisoners with the US.”However, a White House spokesperson told Voice of America’s Persian News Network that the release of frozen Iranian assets wasn’t imminent. “Reports from Iranian sources of a transfer of funds related to the release of Bagher Namazi and furlough of Siamak Namazi are categorically false,” National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson told Voice of America. The elder Namazi, a former UN official, traveled to Iran in 2016 to plead for his son’s release. He was subsequently detained and convicted of “collaboration with a hostile government.” Authorities furloughed him from prison in 2018 due to health conditions and closed his case in 2020, though he remained under a travel ban. The younger Namazi, a businessman, was arrested in 2015 while visiting Iran and has been held in the notorious Evin prison. An Iranian court convicted him in 2016 of espionage charges, which he denied. In September, the Namazi family confirmed that the father needed urgent surgery to treat blockages in his arteries and called for the son to be released to be near his father. Iran’s official government news agency, IRNA, reported that Tehran will receive $7 billion of its blocked money in South Korea for a prisoner exchange deal with the US. “The past weeks witnessed intense negotiations mediated by one of the countries in the region,” reported IRNA, adding that there was an agreement for the prisoners and assets to be released simultaneously. But the White House and the US State Department dismissed any such link.

Iran's supreme leader breaks silence on protests, blames US
Associated Press/October 03/2022
Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei responded publicly on Monday to the biggest protests in Iran in years, breaking weeks of silence to condemn what he called "rioting" and accuse the U.S. and Israel of planning the protests. Khamenei said he was "heartbroken" by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in the custody of Iran's morality police, which set off the nationwide protests. However, he sharply condemned the protests as a foreign plot to destabilize Iran, echoing authorities' previous comments. "This rioting was planned," he told a cadre of police students in Tehran. "These riots and insecurities were designed by America and the Zionist regime, and their employees."He described scenes of protestors ripping off their state-mandated headscarves and setting fire to mosques, banks and police cars as "not normal" and "unnatural." His comments come as nationwide protests sparked by Amini's death entered a third week despite the government's efforts to crack down. Iran's state TV has reported the death toll from violent clashes between protesters and the security officers could be as high as 41, without providing details. Rights groups have given higher death tallies, with London-based Amnesty International saying it has identified 52 victims, including five women and at least five children. An untold number of people have been apprehended, with local officials reporting at least 1,500 arrests.Authorities have repeatedly blamed foreign countries and exiled opposition groups for fanning the unrest, without providing evidence. The protests over Amini's death have tapped into a deep well of grievances in Iran, including the country's surging prices, high unemployment, social restrictions and political repression. Demonstrations have continued in Tehran and far-flung provinces even as authorities have restricted internet access to the outside world and blocked social media apps. As the new academic year began this week, students gathered in protest at universities across Iran, according to videos widely shared on social media, chanting slogans against the government and denouncing security forces' clampdown on demonstrators. Universities in major cities including Isfahan in central Iran, Mashhad in the northeast and Kermanshah in the west have held protests featuring crowds of students clapping, chanting and burning state-mandated headscarves. "Don't call it a protest, it's a revolution now," shouted students at Shahid Beheshti University in the capital of Tehran, as women took off their hijabs and set them alight, in protest over Iran's law requiring women to cover their hair. "Students are awake, they hate the leadership!" chanted crowds of students at the University of Mazandaran in the country's north.

Khamenei sees US, Israeli plot behind Iran protests over Amini's death
AP/October 03/2022
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei responded publicly on Monday to the biggest protests in Iran in years, breaking weeks of silence to condemn what he called “rioting” and accuse the US and Israel of planning the protests. Khamenei said he was “heartbroken” by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in the custody of Iran’s morality police, which set off the nationwide protests. However, he sharply condemned the protests as a foreign plot to destabilise Iran, echoing authorities’ previous comments. “This rioting was planned,” he told a cadre of police students in Tehran. “These riots and insecurities were designed by America and the Zionist regime and their employees.”He described scenes of protestors ripping off their state-mandated headscarves and setting fire to mosques, banks and police cars as “not normal” and “unnatural.”Iran's supreme leader also gave strong backing to security forces confronting nationwide protests. "The duty of our security forces, including police, is to ensure the safety of the Iranian nation ... The ones who attack the police are leaving Iranian citizens defenceless against thugs, robbers and extortionists," Khamenei said.
Security forces, including police and the volunteer Basij militia, have been leading a crackdown on the protests, with thousands arrested and hundreds injured. Khamenei said security forces had faced "injustice" during the protests. "In recent incidents, it is above all security forces including the police and Basij, as well as the people of Iran, who were wronged," he said. His comments come as nationwide protests sparked by Amini’s death entered a third week despite the government’s crackdown. Iran’s state TV has reported the death toll from violent clashes between protesters and the security officers could be as high as 41, without providing details. Rights groups have given higher death tallies, with London-based Amnesty International saying it has identified 52 victims, including five women and at least five children.
An untold number of people has been apprehended, with local officials reporting at least 1,500 arrests. Authorities have repeatedly blamed foreign countries and exiled opposition groups for fanning the unrest, without providing evidence. The protests over Amini’s death have tapped into a deep well of grievances in Iran, including the country’s surging prices, high unemployment, social restrictions and political repression. Demonstrations have continued in Tehran and far-flung provinces even as authorities have restricted internet access to the outside world and blocked social media apps.As the new academic year began this week, students gathered in protest at universities across Iran, according to videos widely shared on social media, chanting slogans against the government and denouncing security forces’ clampdown on demonstrators. Universities in major cities including Isfahan in central Iran, Mashhad in the northeast and Kermanshah in the west have held protests featuring crowds of students clapping, chanting and burning state-mandated headscarves. “Don’t call it a protest, it’s a revolution now,” shouted students at Shahid Beheshti University in the capital of Tehran, as women took off their hijabs and set them alight, in protest over Iran’s law requiring women to cover their hair. “Students are awake, they hate the leadership!” chanted crowds of students at the University of Mazandaran in the country’s north.

Iran’s Sunni Leader Accuses Regime Snipers of Shooting at Demonstrators
London, Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 3 October, 2022 -
Abdolhamid Ismaeelzahi, Iran's Sunni leader, accused security forces of targeting demonstrators by deploying snipers to rallies in Zahedan city. In an Instagram message, he said “special Revolutionary Guard forces have fired at youth and teenagers on Friday.”“Government forces responded by firing live bullets at young men who threw stones at a police station,” noted Ismaeelzahi. “Most of the bullets were fired at the heads and hearts of the worshipers, and it was clear that it was the work of snipers,” he added. Ismaeelzahi condemned what happened as a “disaster” and a “great injustice.”“Security forces officers in plain clothes shot at people who were making their way back home,” he revealed. Thousands of Iranians have taken to the streets over the last two weeks to protest the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman who had been detained by Iran's morality police in the capital of Tehran for allegedly not adhering to Iran's strict Islamic dress code. On Saturday, Iran’s Tasnim news agency accused the Baluch opposition Jaish Al-Adl organization of being behind the attack on a police station. Ali Mousavi, a Revolutionary Guard intelligence chief in the Sistan and Baluchistan province, was shot during the clashes on Friday and pronounced dead at a hospital. The Baloch Activists Campaign said at least 56 people have died in Zahedan, the capital of the Sistan and Baluchistan province. In a statement, the Campaign also revealed that 300 individuals were wounded in the clashes that authorities blamed on “separatist groups.”Local media in the province reported that the protests continued despite the authorities cutting the internet in the area. Iranian media reported that 20 civilians and five members of the Revolutionary Guard and Basij forces were killed on Friday. In turn, a non-governmental organization called “Human Rights of Iran” accused security forces of carrying out “bloody repression” against a demonstration that took place after Friday prayers in Zahedan. According to the human rights group, the protest was triggered by reports of a police chief raping a 15-year-old girl from the Sunni Baluch minority in Chabahar.

Canada imposes fresh sanctions on Iran citing death of Mahsa Amini
Reuters/October 03/2022
WASHINGTON: Canada imposed fresh sanctions on Iran on Monday for alleged human rights violations, including the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old from Iranian Kurd who died while in custody of Iran’s “morality police,” the Canadian government said. “These sanctions are in response to gross human rights violations that have been committed in Iran, including its systematic persecution of women and in particular, the egregious actions committed by Iran’s so-called ‘Morality Police,’ which led to the death of Mahsa Amini while under their custody,” the Canadian government said in a statement.
These new measures built on Canada’s existing sanctions against Iran and listed 25 individuals and 9 entities, including officials in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its ministry of intelligence and security, the Canadian government said.
Iran’s state-run Press TV and its ‘Morality Police,’ which enforce the Islamic Republic’s strict dress code, were also sanctioned by Canada. Amini was arrested on Sept. 13 in Tehran for “unsuitable attire” by the morality police. She died three days later in hospital after falling into a coma. Amini’s family says she was beaten to death in custody. Iran’s police authorities deny those allegations and say Amini died of a heart attack. Her death sparked huge protests in Iran and by Iranians in other parts of the world. The unrest has spiraled into the biggest show of opposition to Iran’s authorities in years.
Prior to Monday’s measures, Canada had imposed sanctions on a total of 41 Iranian individuals and 161 Iranian entities, the Canadian government said. In 2012, Canada designated Iran as a “supporter of terrorism.”

Ukraine Claws Back More Territory Russia Is Trying to Annex
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 3 October, 2022
Ukrainian forces scored more gains in their counteroffensive across a broad front Monday, advancing in the very areas Russia is trying to annex and challenging its effort to bolster its military with fresh troops and its threats to defend incorporated areas by all means, including with nuclear weapons.
In their latest breakthrough, Ukrainian forces penetrated Moscow’s defenses in the strategic southern Kherson region, one of the four areas in Ukraine that Russia is absorbing. Ukraine’s advances have become so apparent that even Russia’s Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov, who usually focuses on his own military's successes and the enemy's losses, was forced to acknowledge it. "With numerically superior tank units in the direction of Zolota Balka and Oleksandrivka, the enemy managed to forge deep into our defenses," Konashenkov said, referring to two towns. He coupled that with claims that Russian forces inflicted heavy losses on Ukraine's military. Ukrainian forces have struggled to retake the Kherson region, in contrast to its breakout offensive in the northeast around the country’s second-largest city of Kharkiv that began last month.
As the front lines shifted, the political theater in Moscow continued, with Russia’s lower house of parliament rubber-stamping annexation treaties for Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk to join Russia. The upper house will follow suit Tuesday as a culmination of annexation "referendums" the Kremlin orchestrated last week — actions the UN chief and Western nations have said are illegal. Russia's moves to incorporate the Ukrainian regions, as well as President Vladimir Putin's effort to mobilize more troops, have been done so hastily that government officials have struggled to explain and implement them.
Putin admitted last week that some of the men called up had been mistakenly selected and ordered them sent home. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Donetsk and Luhansk are joining Russia with the administrative borders that existed before a conflict erupted there in 2014 between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian forces. But he added that the borders of the two other regions — Zaporizhzhia and Kherson — are undecided. "We will continue to discuss that with residents of those regions," Peskov said, without elaborating.
A senior Russian lawmaker offered a different view. Pavel Krasheninnikov said Zaporizhzhia will be absorbed within its "administrative borders," meaning Moscow will incorporate parts of the region still under Kyiv’s control. He said similar logic will apply to Kherson, but that Russia will include two districts of the neighboring Mykolaiv region that Moscow holds.
Putin’s land grab has threatened to push the conflict to a dangerous new level, with he and his top officials warning of the potential use of nuclear weapons and ordering the partial troop mobilization. It also prompted Ukraine to apply for fast-track NATO membership.
Ukraine has pressed its counteroffensive in the Kherson region since the summer, relentlessly pummeling Russian supply lines and making inroads into Russian-held areas west of the Dnieper River. The Ukrainian military has successfully used US-supplied HIMARS multiple rocket launchers to repeatedly hit the main bridge across the Dnieper and a dam that served as a second main crossing. It also has struck pontoon bridges that Russia has used to supply its troops. In addition to the Kherson region areas cited by Russia's Defense Ministry, various sources showed Ukrainian flags, soldiers deployed or other unconfirmed signs that Kyiv's forces had retaken the villages of Arkhanhelske, Myroliubivka, Khreshchenivka, Mykhalivka and Novovorontsovka. The situation in the regional capital, also called Kherson, was so precarious that Russian authorities are restricting people from leaving, Ukraine's presidential office said.The Moscow-appointed Kherson regional head, Vladimir Saldo, said Ukrainian troops tried to advance toward Dudchany along the Dnieper’s western bank, seeking to reach a key dam at Nova Kakhovka, but that Russian warplanes destroyed two Ukrainian battalions and halted the offensive.
Saldo added that Russian forces fended off Ukraine's attempted inroads into the Kherson region from Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih. His claims couldn’t be independently verified.
Despite successful strikes on supply lines, Ukraine's offensive in the south has been less successful than in the northeast, as the open terrain exposes attacking forces to Russian artillery and airstrikes. Still, Russian military bloggers close to Moscow have acknowledged that Ukraine has superior manpower, backed by tanks, in the area. A Russian-installed official in the Kherson region, Kirill Stremousov, said in a video that the Ukrainian forces "have broken through a little deeper" but insisted that "everything is under control" and that Russia’s "defense system is working."
Ukraine reported advances in other areas Russia is annexing. The Ukrainian governor of the Luhansk region, Serhiy Haidai, said Kyiv’s forces retook the village of Torske, just 20 kilometers (12 miles) from the city of Kreminna. Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov said the Kreminna-Svatove area is highly strategic. "Kreminna is key for controlling the entire Luhansk region, because further beyond (the city) the Russians don’t have any more lines of defenses," he told The Associated Press. "Retaking this city opens up operational space for Ukrainians to rapidly advance to the very state border with Russia."
Zhdanov said Russian troops in that area had retreated from the Kharkiv region. In the Kharkiv region across the Oskil River 50 kilometers (31 miles) north of Lyman, Ukraine's army reportedly liberated most of Borova. Local officials posted a video while driving along recently recaptured streets, waving the Ukrainian flag through a window. "Finally, you are home. Finally, it’s Ukraine. Glory to Ukraine!" someone yelled from the street. Ukraine has also taken back a strategic eastern city, Lyman, which the Russians had used as a key logistics and front-line transport hub. Lyman is in the Donetsk region near the border with Luhansk. Ukraine's push to recapture territory has embarrassed the Kremlin and prompted rare domestic criticism of Putin’s war. Tens of thousands of Russian men have fled Russia after the call-up on Sept. 21. Many flew to Türkiye, one of the few countries still with air links to Russia. Others have left in cars, creating long traffic jams at the Russian borders to Georgia, Kazakhstan and Finland, among others. The criticism of Russia from at home and abroad has only spurred senior Russian officials to defend Putin's actions more strongly. Addressing lawmakers, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the United States of rallying allies to counter Russia in Ukraine. He said it was just like Nazi Germany relied on the resources of most of Europe when it invaded the Soviet Union in 1941. "The US has mobilized practically all of the collective West to turn Ukraine into an instrument of war against Russia, just as Hitler mobilized military resources of most European nations to attack the Soviet Union," Lavrov said.

Report: Russia smuggling Ukrainian grain to help pay for Putin's war
Associated Press/October 03/2022
When the bulk cargo ship Laodicea docked in Lebanon last summer, Ukrainian diplomats said the vessel was carrying grain stolen by Russia and urged Lebanese officials to impound the ship. Moscow called the allegation "false and baseless," and Lebanon's prosecutor general sided with the Kremlin and declared that the 10,000 tons of barley and wheat flour wasn't stolen and allowed the ship to unload. But an investigation by The Associated Press and the PBS series "Frontline" has found the Laodicea, owned by Syria, is part of a sophisticated Russian-run smuggling operation that has used falsified manifests and seaborne subterfuge to steal Ukrainian grain worth at least $530 million — cash that has helped feed President Vladimir Putin's war machine. AP used satellite imagery and marine radio transponder data to track three dozen ships making more than 50 voyages carrying grain from Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine to ports in Turkey, Syria, Lebanon and other countries. Reporters reviewed shipping manifests, searched social media posts, and interviewed farmers, shippers and corporate officials to uncover the details of the massive smuggling operation. The ongoing theft, which legal experts say is a potential war crime, is being carried out by wealthy businessmen and state-owned companies in Russia and Syria, some of them already facing financial sanctions from the United States and European Union. Meanwhile, the Russian military has attacked farms, grain silos and shipping facilities still under Ukrainian control with artillery and air strikes, destroying food, driving up prices and reducing the flow of grain from a country long known as the breadbasket of Europe. The Russians "have an absolute obligation to ensure that civilians are cared for and to not deprive them their ability of a livelihood and an ability to feed themselves," said David Crane, a veteran prosecutor who has been involved in numerous international war crime investigations. "It's just pure pillaging and looting, and that is also an actionable offense under international military law."
The grain and flour carried by the 138-meter-long (453 feet) Laodicea likely started its journey in the southern Ukrainian city of Melitopol, which Russia seized in the early days of the war.
Video posted to social media on July 9 shows a train pulling up to the Melitopol Elevator, a massive grain storage facility, with green hopper cars marked with the name of the Russian company Agro-Fregat LLC in big yellow letters, along with a logo in the shape of a spike of wheat.
Russian occupation official Andrey Siguta held a news conference at the depot the following week where he said the grain would "provide food security" for Russia-controlled regions in Ukraine, and that his administration would "evaluate the harvest and determine how much will be for sale."
As he spoke, a masked soldier armed with an assault rifle stood guard as trucks unloaded wheat at the facility to be milled. Workers loaded flour into large white bags like those delivered by the Laodicea to Lebanon three weeks later.
Siguta, along with four other top Russian occupation officials, was sanctioned by the U.S. government on Sept. 15 for overseeing the theft and export of Ukranian grain.
Putin signed treaties Friday to annex four occupied regions of Ukraine into the Russian Federation, in defiance of international law. The United States and European Union immediately rejected "the illegal annexation."
Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov told AP the occupiers are moving vast quantities of grain from the region by train and truck to ports in Russia and Crimea, a strategic Ukrainian peninsula that Russia has occupied since 2014. Despite Russian claims to have annexed Crimea, the United Nations ruled that land grab was also illegal.
Videos posted on social media in recent months show a steady stream of grain transport trucks moving south through occupied areas of Ukraine with the letter "Z" painted on their sides, a wartime symbol for Russia and its military forces. Agro-Fregat train cars have been recorded rolling through the Crimean port town of Feodosia, where satellite imagery shows trucks and trains lined up as grain was being loaded onto ships. The Kremlin has denied stealing any grain, but Russia's state-run news agency Tass reported on June 16 that Ukrainian grain was being trucked to Crimea, resulting in long lines at border checkpoints. Tass later reported that grain from Melitopol had arrived in Crimea and that additional shipments were expected, bound for customers in the Middle East and Africa. A July 11 satellite image shows the Laodicea tied up at a pier in Feodosia. The ship's radio transponder was turned off and its cargo holds were open, being filled with a white substance from waiting trucks. Two weeks later, when it arrived at the Lebanese port city Tripoli, it claimed to be carrying grain from a small Russian port on the other side of the Black Sea.
A copy of the ship's manifests obtained by AP claimed its port of origin was Kavkaz, Russia. Its cargo was listed as nearly 10,000 metric tons of "Russian Barley and Russian Flour in Bags. "The shipper was listed as Agro-Fregat and the buyer was Loyal Agro Co Ltd., a wholesale grocer headquartered in Turkey.Agro-Fregat didn't respond to emailed questions and soon after AP's inquiry, the company's website appears to have been taken down. A phone number that had been listed on the website was out of service last week.
A spokesman for Loyal Agro said the company took delivery of 5,000 tons of flour and the rest of the ship's cargo went to Tartus, Syria. "We reached an agreement with Russia, the flour came from Russia," said Muhammed Cuma, a spokesman for the company. "If the flour was stolen, then the Lebanese authorities would not have allowed it (to be imported)."But the Laodicea couldn't have picked up its cargo in Kavkaz, the Russian port listed on the manifest. The ship's hull, which reaches 8 meters (26 feet) below the surface, would run aground in the relatively shallow port, which according to Russia's transport regulator can only accommodate ships with a maximum depth of 5.3 meters (17.5 feet). The port in Feodosia is more than twice as deep — easily able to accommodate the big ship. The Laodicea is one of three bulk cargo vessels operated by Syriamar Shipping Ltd., a Syrian government-run company under U.S. sanctions since 2015 for its ties to the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. AP tracked 10 voyages made by the Laodicea and her sister ships — Souria and Finikia — from the Ukrainian coast to ports in Turkey, Syria and Lebanon.
Syriamar didn't respond to emails to its headquarters in Latakia, Syria. A call to the phone number on the company's website went unanswered. Another company involved in smuggling grain is United Shipbuilding Corp., a Russian state-owned defense contractor that builds warships and submarines for Russia's navy. In April, the company and its senior executives were sanctioned by the United States for providing weapons to the Russian war effort.
The company, through its subsidiary Crane Marine Contractor, bought three cargo ships just weeks before Putin invaded Ukraine, in a departure from its core business providing heavy lift platforms to the oil and gas industry. The three ships have made at least 17 trips between Crimea and ports in Turkey and Syria. A spokeswoman for United Shipbuilding Corp. in Moscow didn't respond to questions sent via email. When AP called Crane Marine Contractor a receptionist answered by saying the company's name. A man she transferred the call to, however, insisted AP had the wrong number.
"You have reached the wrong place, we do not have such information," said the man, who refused to give his name. "I have no clue what you are talking about and no clue who I can connect you with, do you understand?"
During a typical voyage in mid-June, a 170-meter-long ship (560 feet) called the Mikhail Nenashev was captured on satellite being loaded at the Russian-controlled Avlita Grain Terminal in Sevastopol, Crimea, while its radio transponder was turned off. The ship's crew turned the signal back on two days later while underway in the Black Sea. It turned south toward the Mediterranean and arrived on June 25 in Dörtyol, Turkey where exclusive video obtained by AP shows it two days later at a pier owned by MMK Metalurji, a steel producer. Cranes at the dock can be seen scooping up large bucket loads of grain and dropping it into waiting trucks that drive away. MMK Metalurji is the Turkish subsidiary of Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel Works, a major Russian steel conglomerate controlled by Viktor Rashnikov, a Russian billionaire who is close to Putin. Rashnikov and his company have been sanctioned by the United States, European Union and United Kingdom for providing revenue and equipment in support of Russia's war effort.
In an email to AP, the company said the grain came from Russia: "The place where the said cargo is loaded is PORT KAVKAZ … according to the customs declaration and the written declaration made by the shipping agency to us."
As with Laodicea, Nenashev's draught is too deep to dock at the Kavkaz port. Ami Daniel, CEO of the marine data analytics company Winward, said ships running dark is a red flag that illegal activity is occurring. He said it is also common for smugglers to falsify shipping manifests and customs declarations to hide the true origin of their cargo. "Illegally falsifying documentation is a tactic used by bad actors to disguise the origin of the goods they are transporting, be it for the purpose of evading sanctions, trafficking illicit goods, or other crimes," said Daniel, a former Israeli naval officer.
Rashnikov, who has a personal fortune estimated at more than $10 billion, appears to have anticipated the sanctions.
Days before Russia launched its February invasion, his 140-meter-long superyacht (460 feet), the Ocean Victory, cruised from Dubai to the Maldives, a remote archipelago in the Indian Ocean where the government hasn't enforced Western sanctions. Ocean Victory's crew turned off its radio transponder on March 1, and the $300 million party barge has been running dark ever since.
Since the invasion, global grain prices have skyrocketed, boosting profits for Russian smugglers, while triggering what U.N. World Food Program director David Beasley on Sept. 15 called a "tsunami of hunger" affecting at least 345million people.
While there is little evidence Ukrainians themselves are under threat of famine, Russia's war of aggression has starved its economy of export revenue. In 2021, before Russia's most recent invasion, Ukraine exported $5 billion worth of wheat, corn and vegetable oils — primarily in the Middle East, Africa and Asia.
The high prices haven't helped Ukrainian farmers in the occupied regions, who have been forced to sell their harvests to Russian-controlled companies for half of what they would have been paid before the war, according to Fedorov, the Melitopol mayor. If a farmer refuses, he said, the Russians just take the grain anyway, paying nothing. "It is a very low price, and our farmers don't understand what they can do," said Fedorov, who evacuated to Ukrainian-controlled territory after the invasion but keeps in touch with people back home.
Ukrainian agricultural holding company HarvEast reported that Russians had taken about 200,000 metric tons of grain, which CEO Dmitry Skornyakov said cost his company about $50 million. He said his employees in the occupied Ukrainian city of Mariupol reported the grain was trucked across the border into Russia. "To steal it, they just drive to Rostov and Taganrog, small Russian ports, then mix it with the Russian grain and say that that is Russian grain," Skornyakov said.
The same appears to be happening at sea.
Satellite imagery and transponder data shows large cargo ships anchored off the Russian coast rendezvousing with smaller ships shuttling grain from both Crimean and Russian ports, obscuring the true origin of the cargo. Those larger ships then carried the blended grain to Egypt, Libya, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
Daniel, the former naval officer whose company tracks ships globally, said ship-to-ship transfers of cargo at sea are rare, and are usually tied to smuggling. "When you're a sanctioned country, you have a much more limited market," he said. "So if you don't blend your cargoes or if you don't hide your origin, you probably have a much smaller market and therefore much lower price."
High demand for grain makes it easy for Russians to find buyers, said Oleg Nivievskyi, assistant professor and vice president for economics education at the Kyiv School of Economics.
"There will be no problem to sell the stolen grain from Ukraine whatsoever," he said. Yayla Agro, which makes packaged dried goods and ready-to-eat meals regularly stocked on the shelves of Turkish supermarkets, said it bought 8,800 metric tons of corn delivered by the Russian ship Fedor to the Turkish port of Bandirma on June 17. The cargo would be worth about $2.7 million. In a statement to AP, Yayla Agro denied it had ever purchased grain from the Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, and said the bill of lading, certificate of origin and other official documents show the ship had been loaded in the port of Kavkaz."We would like to stress that our company is involved in international trade, abides by ethical rules and considers abiding by international law as an absolute priority," the company said. "In the same vein, (Yayla Agro) meticulously examines whether its commercial partners are the subject of any international sanction."Satellite imagery from June 12 shows the Fedor was actually loaded in Sevastopol, Crimea.
AnRussTrans, the Russian company that owns the ship through a subsidiary, didn't respond to emailed questions. Sergey Dubrov, who answered the phone at the company's headquarters in Moscow, denied receiving AP's email and said he would only respond to written questions.
"I can say one thing," he added. "The ships exclusively work on legal transportation and do not violate international law." Yayla also confirmed purchasing 7,000 metric tons of corn from another Russian ship, SV. Nikolay, on June 24. Satellite imagery shows the ship had docked at the grain terminal in Sevastopol six days earlier, but the company said its documentation showing the grain had come from Kavkaz.
As with the other smuggling ships, both the Fedor and SV. Nikolay are too big to dock at Kavkaz.
Turkey's role in the theft of Ukrainian grain is particularly sensitive because the NATO country has tried to play the role of mediator between the two warring countries. Turkey helped broker an agreement between Russia and Ukraine in July to allow both countries to export grain and fertilizer through safe corridors in the Black Sea. The deal did not address the grain Russia has taken from occupied areas. In the last two months Ukrainian officials said more than 150 ships carrying grain have departed from ports they still control, including shipments to Somalia and Yemen, war-torn nations currently facing famine.
Yet there are also indications the Turkish government itself may be a recipient of disputed grain from Ukraine. AP and "Frontline" tracked trips from Crimea to Turkey by the smuggling ships Mikhail Nenashev, Laodicea and Souria to docks with seaside silos operated by the Turkish Grain Board, a government-run entity that imports and exports grain and other agricultural products. The board's press office and executives did not respond to emails with detailed questions about the suspect shipments. Though Turkish authorities have pledged to stop illegal smuggling, Turkey's foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in a June news conference his country had not found any evidence of theft. "We've received such claims," he said. "And such information is coming from the Ukrainian side from time to time. We take every claim seriously and investigate it seriously. ... In our investigation on ships' ports and goods' origins, following claims about Turkey, we saw the origin records to be Russia."Whatever the records say, the smuggling operation continues. Crane Marine Contractor's ship Matros Koshka — named for a Russian sailor lauded as a national hero for his bravery during the Crimean War of 1854 — cruised north last week into the Black Sea with a listed destination of Kavkaz before turning off its transponder and running dark. Satellite imagery taken Thursday showed the 161-meter-long ship (528 feet) had docked once again at the grain terminal in the occupied Ukrainian port of Sevastopol, little more than a mile from a Soviet-era statue honoring its namesake.

Erdogan Vows to Send Back 1 Million Syrian Refugees Voluntarily
Ankara - Saeed Abdul Razzak/ Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 3 October, 2022
Türkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated on Sunday his pledge to send back a million Syrian refugees on a voluntary basis. “Since the start of our cross-border operations in Syria (in 2016), about 526,000 volunteers have returned to the safety zones that we established,” Erdogan told the Turkish parliament. He said that Ankara aims to encourage them to return to “safe zones” on the Türkiye -Syria border by building them housing and local infrastructure. There are 3.7 million Syrian refugees officially living in Türkiye. Ankara launched a project to build 250,000 houses in Idlib, in cooperation with civil society organizations. Erdogan called on the international community to continue funding housing and infrastructure projects in northwestern Syria, which is controlled by Türkiye and the opposition factions loyal to it. Less than nine months from presidential elections, the refugees’ presence in the country has become a thorny political issue, especially as Türkiye battles an economic and monetary crisis. Opposition parties regularly call on authorities to send millions of Syrians home. Separately, many business owners in Türkiye have demanded keeping Syrian workers in the country, given the problems that resulted from the departure of thousands of Syrians, whether those who returned voluntarily to their country or sought refuge in Europe. Recent studies revealed a shortage of manpower in various sectors in the country. The study cited complaints that Turkish workers do not accept the salaries Syrians were taking.
It further pointed out that most Syrians accept to work without social or health insurance, which reduces the financial burden on business owners. Syrians residing in Türkiye have recently launched social media campaigns to head to Europe against the backdrop of the rising hate speech against them in the country.

Erdogan Addresses Egyptian-Turkish Ties, Cairo Doesn’t Anticipate Any Progress
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 3 October, 2022
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said his country is developing ties with Egypt based on mutual interests. He made the remarks at a parliament session on Saturday marking the new legislative year, Anadolu Agency reported. “Our relations with the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Israel are developing based on mutual interests, and a similar process is underway with Egypt,” Erdogan noted. Egypt’s relations with Türkiye have been strained – with no shared ambassadors – since the 2013 ouster of Egypt’s late Islamist president Mohamed Morsi, who was backed by Erdogan’s government. The rift between the two countries then continued to widen, most notably when Türkiye voiced its opposition to the June 30 Revolution of 2013 and its condemnation of Egypt’s judicial sentences against members of the Muslim Brotherhood, which Egypt designated a terrorist organization in 2013. Egypt has also slammed Türkiye for harboring members and leading figures of the Brotherhood and allowing them to voice their anti-Egyptian government rhetoric on Turkish TV channels. In March 2021, Turkish authorities ordered Istanbul-based TV channels affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood to stop airing criticism and incitement leveled against Egypt and Gulf states immediately. In May and September 2021, the two countries held two rounds of exploratory talks at the level of deputy foreign ministers in Cairo and Ankara to discuss restoring relations. Former Egyptian foreign minister Mohamed Orabi said the pace of bilateral ties has been fixed for some time now, adding that no developments have been achieved since the exploratory talks in 2021. In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Orabi pointed out that both countries haven’t resolved any of the outstanding issues, including Türkiye’s role in Libya, Syria and Iraq, as well as the skirmishes in the eastern Mediterranean. He stressed that Ankara should exert extra effort to prove its keenness to maintain Cairo’s security. In June 2021, Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said Türkiye’s shift in its approach is the key to advance normalizing bilateral ties. He further underscored the importance for Ankara to take into consideration Cairo’s stances regarding its policies that have an impact on Egypt’s interests.

Settlers Ask Lapid not to Join EU-Israeli Association Council
Tel Aviv - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 3 October, 2022
Leaders of Jewish settlements in the West Bank have demanded Prime Minister Yair Lapid to call off a meeting of the EU-Israel Association Council on Monday and to withdraw from any agreement with the Europeans, considering the meeting as hostile to them and targeting their existence.
Their calls on Sunday came hours after Lapid’s office said the Israeli PM will lead the first meeting of the EU-Israel Association Council in over a decade. The office described it as a significant diplomatic achievement that reflects the improvement in Israel's relations with the EU over the past year. Last Thursday, the European Union announced that it had invited Tel Aviv to the first Association Council meeting on Monday. The last Association Council meeting was held in 2012 and further gatherings were paused after Israeli authorities objected to the EU’s position regarding West Bank settlements. On Sunday, Eugene Kontorovich, professor at Northwestern University School of law and director of International Law at the Jerusalem-based Kohelet Policy Forum, said “the gains of this agreement will be felt for one night, but its damages are greater.”Last week, reports said that Lapid is unlikely to sign a cultural agreement with the EU. Settlers had welcomed the decision, saying the agreement renders Israeli citizens living in the settlements “second class,” as it bans EU funding of cultural activities taking place in Jewish settlements in the West Bank, East Jerusalem or the Golan Heights. They said the agreement also means that Lapid’s government accepts discrimination against settlers, contrary to Benjamin Netanyahu’s governments, which had rejected similar steps since 2017. The settlers then linked the signing of the cultural agreement to the Horizon 2020 program, which stipulates that EU does not fund scientific activities carried out in the settlements. “Horizon 2020 was a mistake and mistakes should not be repeated,” said Kontorovich. He said the cultural agreement is worse than the Horizon program because the Israeli government could compensate the lack of EU funding at the scientific level. However, he added, when it comes to cultural activities, the new agreement stipulates that the European Union cannot fund any cultural activities in the Old City of Jerusalem or in Katzrin (in the Golan). “This would create discrimination, which is prohibited by Israeli laws,” Kontorovich stressed. He added that since the signing of Horizon 2020, Israel made many political achievements, including the passing of laws against the Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) movement in many US states. Also, Kontorovich said Washington formally recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and the Golan Heights as Israeli territory. “The signing of the new agreement would set Israel back diplomatically to at least a decade ago and it will weaken laws that were passed against the BDS movement,” he affirmed.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 03-04/2022
They're Redistributing Wealth, Not Fighting Inflation
Daniel Greenfield/Gatestone Institute/October 03/2022
The Inflation Reduction Act is a lie. It doesn't reduce inflation: it actually gooses it. The IRA is another inflationary leftist spending boondoggle that throws billions at green energy and $80 billion at the IRS to audit the middle class in the hopes of balancing out some of the crony cash.
A week after signing the IRA, Biden announced a trillion dollar loan bailout for his party's base of perpetual grad students. Like the Inflation Reduction Act, this was a massive wealth transfer. Audit the middle class and send the checks to Tesla drivers and sociology grad students. Raise inflation rates with inflationary spending and transfer some of the wealth over to welfare voters.
That's what the White House was really celebrating.
The Biden administration isn't fighting inflation, it's deliberately increasing it even as its cronies in the Federal Reserve hammer home new interest rate hikes to force the economy into a recession. This two-step dance destroys savings, wrecks investments and allows for a massive wealth transfer to Democrat donors, special interests and voters. The more that the Democrat majority spends, the worse inflation gets and the more justification there is for higher rates.
If a recession arrives, there'll be even more justification for government wealth transfers.
"I'm kind of in a position that FDR was," Biden modestly claimed. FDR's position was to use the Soviet Union and Mussolini's Italy as templates for dramatically transforming America through massive spending, socialist controls and crackdowns on conservative political opponents.
So far Biden has managed 2 out of 3.
The Biden administration is not here to "save the economy".... The formula has always been really simple: create the crisis, worsen it, and then exploit it.
Honest socialists like Bernie Sanders would at least admit that they're trying to replace the economy with socialism while pursuing massive wealth redistribution.
Biden is pretending that he's a firefighter when, like FDR, he's actually an arsonist in a big helmet and black boots. Inflation is one of the fires being fed to justify tighter government controls and interventions that reduce economic independence and redistribute wealth.
Devaluing money is the traditional tool of totalitarian leftist regimes. Runaway inflation provides them with a pretext for interventions such as wage and price controls, both of which were rolled out during COVID lockdowns on an unprecedented scale and still continue....
These trial runs involve government intervention creating artificial scarcity or higher prices by intervening in the production process, shutting down plants or oil and gas leases, and then stomping in to reshape the marketplace.
Anyone living under actual socialism can tell you that it can get much worse. And will.
When that happens, Biden will throw an even bigger party. And we'll be the ones paying for it.
The Inflation Reduction Act is a lie. It doesn't reduce inflation: it actually gooses it. The IRA is another inflationary leftist spending boondoggle that throws billions at green energy and $80 billion at the IRS to audit the middle class in the hopes of balancing out some of the crony cash. (Image source: iStock)
Biden threw a party to celebrate the Inflation Reduction Act on the White House South Lawn even as the latest figures showed that core inflation has continued to rise. Grocery prices had the steepest increase since 1979. Rent prices shot up again and medical costs are escalating.
Even the most loyal media lapdogs could hardly stand this festival of lies. CNN cut away from Biden's masque of red ink to show what was happening to the stock market. Reuters acidly headlined its coverage, "Biden celebrates 'Inflation Reduction Act' as food, rent prices climb".
So what's there to celebrate?
The Inflation Reduction Act is a lie. It doesn't reduce inflation: it actually gooses it. The IRA is another inflationary leftist spending boondoggle that throws billions at green energy and $80 billion at the IRS to audit the middle class in the hopes of balancing out some of the crony cash.
A week after signing the IRA, Biden announced a trillion dollar loan bailout for his party's base of perpetual grad students. Like the Inflation Reduction Act, this was a massive wealth transfer. Audit the middle class and send the checks to Tesla drivers and sociology grad students. Raise inflation rates with inflationary spending and transfer some of the wealth over to welfare voters.
That's what the White House was really celebrating.
And the worse inflation gets, the closer Biden and his administration get to their true objectives.
The Biden administration isn't fighting inflation, it's deliberately increasing it even as its cronies in the Federal Reserve hammer home new interest rate hikes to force the economy into a recession. This two-step dance destroys savings, wrecks investments and allows for a massive wealth transfer to Democrat donors, special interests and voters. The more that the Democrat majority spends, the worse inflation gets and the more justification there is for higher rates.
If a recession arrives, there'll be even more justification for government wealth transfers.
That's the good news that brought James Taylor to the White House and got Joe Biden to put on his best 80s shades and party like it's 1929. Biden announced that he wanted to be FDR. You can't be FDR without a Great Depression. Even if you have to create it every step of the way.
"I'm kind of in a position that FDR was," Biden modestly claimed. FDR's position was to use the Soviet Union and Mussolini's Italy as templates for dramatically transforming America through massive spending, socialist controls and crackdowns on conservative political opponents.
So far Biden has managed 2 out of 3.
The Biden administration is not here to "save the economy" so that its titular figurehead can retire to a Delaware basement and then drool softly into a Dixie cup for the next decade. The formula has always been really simple: create the crisis, worsen it, and then exploit it.
Until America has been destroyed and there's no freedom, only the omnipotent state.
Honest socialists like Bernie Sanders would at least admit that they're trying to replace the economy with socialism while pursuing massive wealth redistribution. Biden claims to be trying to fix it by giving his base more spending money while interest rate hikes push the economy into a recession in order to keep people from spending more money.
A recent paper by prominent economists warned that unfettered government spending would lead to, "a vicious circle of rising nominal interest rates, rising inflation, economic stagnation."
But whether that's a vicious circle or a virtuous circle is a matter of perspective.
From the standpoint of any normal person, it's a vicious circle, but from the standpoint of a socialist, it's a grand opportunity to Cloward-Piven the economy as we know it into the abyss.
And make a whole lot of money for an army of politically connected special interests.
Biden is pretending that he's a firefighter when, like FDR, he's actually an arsonist in a big helmet and black boots. Inflation is one of the fires being fed to justify tighter government controls and interventions that reduce economic independence and redistribute wealth.
Devaluing money is the traditional tool of totalitarian leftist regimes. Runaway inflation provides them with a pretext for interventions such as wage and price controls, both of which were rolled out during COVID lockdowns on an unprecedented scale and still continue to be statewide.
Inflation is not the administration's enemy, it's the best tool for wrecking what's left of free enterprise. How do you get Americans to accept price controls? Keep feeding inflation so that the prices of everyday goods, of gas and housing climb out of the reach of even the middle class. The Biden administration deliberately pushed up gas prices, threatened the industry with price controls and then dumped oil from the reserve into the market. That was a trial run.
So was the baby formula crisis in which the FDA shut down production and then the Biden administration stepped in to fly in formula from overseas. These trial runs involve government intervention creating artificial scarcity or higher prices by intervening in the production process, shutting down plants or oil and gas leases, and then stomping in to reshape the marketplace.
While inflation is a useful tool, it's not the only one. The EPA, CDC, FDA, USDA and numerous government agencies with virtually unchecked regulatory powers can dramatically change product availability and price at the macro level leading to demands for further interventions.
COVID lockdowns were the patient zero of this new economy. Seemingly irrational and unjust measures shut down small businesses while allowing Amazon and major retailers to roll on. But there was nothing irrational about it. This was a deliberate strategy to further consolidate the retail sector, concentrating the pain among small businesses before offering them temporary subsidies, and narrowing the retail pipeline to put it even further under government control. Labor disputes in rail lines and UPS allow Democrat unions to shut down the supply chain.
But as they used to say on television, "This was only a test." Socialism, on a much broader scale than we've seen it, is being tested. As destructive as these tests were, that's still what they are. Anyone living under actual socialism can tell you that it can get much worse. And will.
When that happens, Biden will throw an even bigger party. And we'll be the ones paying for it.
*Daniel Greenfield is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center. This article previously appeared at the Center's Front Page Magazine and has been reprinted here with the kind permission of the David Horowitz Freedom Center
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone

Trouble at home will hinder Iran’s export of its revolution
Zaid M. Belbagi/Arab News/October 03/2022
Despite the customary anti-Western rhetoric and character of Iran’s foreign policy, the chief calculation of its government since 1979 has been the export of its revolution. Specifically, this has meant the exportation of Velayat-e faqih — or guardianship of the jurist — in an effort to extend the de jure rule of a Shiite clergy over a larger geographical expanse. In reality, this has often been confused and at times contradicted by long-standing geopolitical factors, ethnic and religious fault lines and Iran’s own economic concerns. Now, four decades after the revolution, the contradictions are growing and Iran’s muscular overseas policy lies in the balance, as the regime Ayatollah Khomeini ordained shows signs of aging. Over the last fortnight, Iran has been racked by protests. Average Iranians, most aged little over 30 and so too young to have monarchical nostalgia, have taken the public outpouring of anger at the death of Mahsa Amini to voice their opposition toward Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Guardian Council, which is appointed by the clergy. The struggle has been described as a face-off between subjugated and liberal women and an uncaring and out-of-touch theocracy. However, it actually embodies a wider identity crisis that the regime is going through. Though the events of 1979 are remembered as the “Islamic Revolution,” in reality it brought together different disaffected sections of society, including intellectuals, communists and urbane academics. The presidential system that was installed thereafter was a reflection of this, as are the elected parliament and the Assembly of Experts. However, this presidential system has all but buckled under the pressure of the unelected supreme leader and Guardian Council, whose paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ceased being the vanguard of the revolution but rather adopted the role of unaccountable security force and foreign legion.
Repeated mass protests, which are being met with state violence and counter “hard-liner” mobilization, are a barometer of the increasing social disquiet that the regime has not been able to contain. It is remarkable, therefore, that, as the regime sought to gain the upper hand last week and restore order, the Revolutionary Guards conducted a missile and armed drone strike in Iraq. At the same time, Iran’s proxies in Yemen hosted a large-scale military parade, during which they showcased a variety of Iranian-produced missiles and drones, and in Lebanon recruitment flyers called for Persian-speaking militiamen to travel to Iran. These actions show there is no let-up in the regime’s overseas ambitions and activities. It is no surprise that, at this moment of crisis, Iranian authorities have blamed the unrest on “rioters” linked to “foreign enemies.” Disregarding local anger, the regime has chosen to couch protests in its wider struggles with the West. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said last week: “Washington is always trying to weaken Iran’s stability and security.” And amid a bitter cyberwar with Israel, the regime has been keen to represent its internet blackout as an act of self-defense from efforts at foreign interference.
Much like 1979, it is the cross-class, ethnic and gender support that makes this movement so significant. At the UN General Assembly last month, President Ebrahim Raisi held up a photo of assassinated Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, while in the latter’s hometown of Kerman the same picture was being burned. Within this context, how well the regime will be able to internationalize the reasons for its internal instability will be limited. The current situation also affects the stalled nuclear deal talks, as it is unclear whether a regime under pressure will double down and be less minded to reach an agreement and if a US president with midterm elections in November can be seen to be parlaying with an increasingly controversial partner.
Today’s protests are only the latest iteration of dissent in a country that notably saw the 2009 Green Movement emerge in the wake of disputed elections, as well as protests in November 2019 over fuel price rises and rallies this year over the cost of living. The Iranian economy remains mired in a crisis largely caused by international sanctions over its nuclear program. Much like 1979, it is the cross-class, ethnic and gender support that makes this movement so significant. Iran’s teachers’ union has called for a strike and students have followed suit.
It would seem that the other sections of the revolution have reared their head in light of the challenges caused by the regime’s focus on international issues. The fatigue with Iran’s revolutionary overstretch and the economic difficulties it has caused has overlapped with developments in the region that threaten to curtail Iran’s involvement. In Syria, the Assad regime has been less compliant as it seeks to consolidate power. Iraq has strengthened relations with its Arab neighbors as it seeks to reenter the Arab fold and limit the influence of Iran. To a regime struggling at home, foreign adventurism is only likely to make matters worse, as the backbone of the protesters’ angst is not laws governing social matters but rather their economic circumstances. The republican sentiment of Iran’s revolution against the shah united Iranians from different walks of life in a call for an end to tyranny. However, in its haste to consolidate power and export this revolution, the regime has overlooked the political and economic aspirations of the different sections of Iranian society that took part in it, focusing instead on a set of regional hegemonic ambitions. It is these ambitions that have led to the economic isolation Iran experiences today, which in turn has led to a situation whereby an emotive incident has caused mass social unrest.
• Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator and an adviser to private clients between London and the GCC. Twitter: @Moulay_Zaid

Russia Will Use Its Ally, a Nuclear-Armed Iran, to Better Threaten the West
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/October 03/2022
As one of the signatories of the original Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the flawed nuclear deal negotiated by the Obama administration, Russia, as well as China, will ultimately have a say in any new agreement that emerges from the Vienna talks.
Rather than seeking to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions, Beijing and Moscow are more interested in forming an alliance with Iran to counter what they denounce as America's unilateralism, and thwarting "draconian" US sanctions.
Given Moscow's open hostility towards the West, it is abundantly clear that the Kremlin wants to exploit the weakness of the Biden administration to ensure the negotiations provide an even more unsatisfactory deal than the one signed off by Barack Obama in 2015, one that completely fails to address the very real threat Iran's nuclear weapons will pose to the wider world.
From Moscow's perspective, having a nuclear-armed Iran, one that is Russia's ally, will greatly enhance its ability to challenge the West.
In return, Iran has formed a new "axis of evil" with Moscow, providing it with weaponry, such as sophisticated drones, to support its war effort in Ukraine, while at the time providing assistance to Tehran to evade the effects of Western sanctions.
While these two despotic regimes seem determined to forge an ever closer alliance, however, their objectives are completely at odds with the demands of their respective citizens, whose primary concern is securing their freedom, not supporting the military aspirations of the ruling elites.
There is growing concern in Washington that US President Joe Biden is preparing to sign a new deal with Tehran once the midterm elections have been concluded, and that his officials are prepared to sign a far weaker version of the deal than that originally agreed to in 2015.
That would be a grave miscalculation on the part of the Biden administration.
This should be the moment when the US and its allies are intensifying the pressure on both Iran and Moscow, not capitulating to their interests with a weak nuclear deal which will only encourage them to indulge in further acts of aggression against the West and its allies.
From Moscow's perspective, having a nuclear-armed Iran, one that is Russia's ally, will greatly enhance its ability to challenge the West. Pictured: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi hold a meeting in Tehran on July 19, 2022.
The nationwide anti-government protests sweeping Russia and Iran demonstrate that, despite the efforts of these two rogue regimes to increase the level of military cooperation between Moscow and Tehran, the overwhelming demand of the majority of ordinary Russians and Iranians is freedom from dictatorial rule.One of the more alarming global developments in recent months has been the deepening cooperation between Moscow and Tehran as they seek to challenge the West on a number of fronts.
Russia has played a key role in supporting Iran's efforts to thwart the negotiating process aimed at reviving the controversial nuclear deal with Tehran since the start of the negotiations in Vienna last year.
While Iran is providing Russia with military equipment to support its war in Ukraine, Russia is supporting Iran's refusal to comply with Western demands to come clean about the true extent of its nuclear arsenal.
As previously reported on these pages, the Russians have actively encouraged Tehran to concentrate on relatively minor issues during the negotiations, such as when and where camera monitors can operate at sensitive nuclear sites in Iran.
By concentrating on what are regarded as peripheral concerns, the Iranian delegation has been successful in steering the talks away from core issues, such as the extent of the progress it has made in enriching uranium to weapons-grade.
As one of the signatories of the original Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the flawed nuclear deal negotiated by the Obama administration, Russia, as well as China, will ultimately have a say in any new agreement that emerges from the Vienna talks.
Rather than seeking to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions, Beijing and Moscow are more interested in forming an alliance with Iran to counter what they denounce as America's unilateralism, and thwarting "draconian" US sanctions.
Given Moscow's open hostility towards the West, it is abundantly clear that the Kremlin wants to exploit the weakness of the Biden administration to ensure the negotiations provide an even more unsatisfactory deal than the one signed off by Barack Obama in 2015, one that completely fails to address the very real threat Iran's nuclear weapons will pose to the wider world.
From Moscow's perspective, having a nuclear-armed Iran, one that is Russia's ally, will greatly enhance its ability to challenge the West.
In return, Iran has formed a new "axis of evil" with Moscow, providing it with weaponry, such as sophisticated drones, to support its war effort in Ukraine, while at the time providing assistance to Tehran to evade the effects of Western sanctions.
While these two despotic regimes seem determined to forge an ever closer alliance, however, their objectives are completely at odds with the demands of their respective citizens, whose primary concern is securing their freedom, not supporting the military aspirations of the ruling elites.
In Russia, the latent hostility among ordinary Russians to Putin's kleptomaniac regime has manifested itself in nationwide protests against the Russian leader's attempts to mobilise 300,000 reservists to help support his disastrous military campaign in Ukraine.
Nationwide disgust at Putin's unprovoked assault on Ukraine has seen hundreds of thousands of young Russians fleeing to the borders in a desperate attempt to avoid the horrors of conscription, and being made to fight in a war none of them supports.
In Iran, meanwhile, the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini as she was detained in custody by Iran's morality police, allegedly for refusing to wear a hijab, has resulted in Iranians of all ages taking to the streets across the country in mass protests and shouting "death to the dictator", a reference to the country's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Iran's security forces have reacted to the anti-government protests with their customary brutality; figures at the time of writing estimate at least 76 people killed in the government's crackdown. Even so, the anti-regime protests have continued to spread, with more than 80 cities and towns affected by the violence since Amini's funeral on September 17.
For many Iranians, the death of Amini, who reportedly died after being struck several times on the head, is the last straw, and the demonstrations represent the biggest anti-government uprising since the 2009 Green Revolution.
The deepening unrest in both Russia and Iran should certainly give the Biden administration pause for thought as it weighs up its next move on the nuclear negotiations.
There is growing concern in Washington that US President Joe Biden is preparing to sign a new deal with Tehran once the midterm elections have been concluded, and that his officials are prepared to sign a far weaker version of the deal than that originally agreed to in 2015.
At a time when both the Russian and Iranian governments are battling nationwide dissent, this would be a grave miscalculation on the part of the Biden administration.
This should be the moment when the US and its allies are intensifying the pressure on both Iran and Moscow, not capitulating to their interests with a weak nuclear deal which will only encourage them to indulge in further acts of aggression against the West and its allies.
*Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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An Ancient Hate: Why Armenia Will Never Know Peace from Surrounding Islam
Raymond Ibrahim//October 03/2022
In late 2020, war broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Two months later, peace was achieved on condition that the Christian nation cede its ancestral lands in Artsakh, internationally known as “Nagorno-Karabakh,” to its Muslim neighbor.
The peace bought by such Armenian appeasement has been fickle at best. Two weeks ago, Azerbaijan launched yet another attack on Armenia—one just as if not more savage than in 2020, as seen by one particularly grotesque atrocity.
The fact is, no amount of appeasement short of total capitulation will ever satisfy Armenia’s powerful Muslim neighbors, namely Azerbaijan and its “big brother,” Turkey.
Appropriating Nagorno-Karabakh was only the first step of a larger project. As Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev, once openly proclaimed, “Yerevan [the capital of Armenia] is our historical land and we Azerbaijanis must return to these historical lands.” He has also referred to other ancient Armenian territories, including the Zangezur and Lake Sevan regions, as “our historic lands.” Taking over those territories “is our political and strategic goal,” Aliyev maintains, “and we need to work step-by-step to get closer to it.”
To this, Tigran Balayan, spokesman for Armenia’s foreign ministry, said: “The statement about territorial claims of the president of Azerbaijan, a state appearing on the political map of the world only 100 years ago … yet again demonstrates the racist character of the ruling regime in Baku.”
This is a rather restrained and diplomatic way of saying that, not only are these claims absolutely false; they are—as most falsehoods nowadays tend to be—the exact inverse of the truth.
Armenia is one of the oldest nations in the world. Armenians founded Yereyan, their current capital, in 782 BC—exactly 2,700 years before Azerbaijan came into being in 1918. And yet, here is the president of Azerbaijan waging war because “Yerevan is our historical land and we Azerbaijanis must return to these historical lands.”
Armenia was also significantly bigger, encompassing even modern day Azerbaijan within its borders, over two thousand years ago. Then the Turks and their offshoots (e.g., Azeris) came riding in from the east, slaughtering, enslaving, terrorizing and stealing the lands of Armenians and other Christians of the region in the name of jihad.
Anyone who doubts this summation should consult the Chronicle of Matthew of Edessa (d.1144). According to this nearly thousand year old chronicle, which is near coterminous with the events it describes, it was only in 1019 that “the first appearance of the bloodthirsty beasts … the savage nation of infidels called Turks entered Armenia … and mercilessly slaughtered the Christian faithful with the sword.”
Three decades later the raids were virtually nonstop. In 1049, the founder of the Turkic Seljuk Empire himself, Sultan Tughril Bey (r. 1037–1063), reached the Armenian city of Arzden, west of Lake Van, and “put the whole town to the sword, causing severe slaughter, as many as one hundred and fifty thousand persons.”Other contemporaries confirm the devastation visited upon Arzden. “Like famished dogs,” writes Aristakes (d.1080) an eye witness, the Turks “hurled themselves on our city, surrounded it and pushed inside, massacring the men and mowing everything down like reapers in the fields, making the city a desert. Without mercy, they incinerated those who had hidden themselves in houses and churches.”
Eleven years later, in 1060, the Turk’s laid siege to Sebastia (which, though now a Turkish city, was originally Armenian). Six hundred churches were destroyed, “many and innumerable people were burned [to death],” and countless women and children “were led into captivity.”
Between 1064 and 1065, Tughril’s successor, Sultan Muhammad bin Dawud Chaghri—known to posterity as Alp Arslan, one of Turkey’s unsavory but national heroes—laid siege to Ani, then the capital of Armenia. The thunderous bombardment of Muhammad’s siege engines caused the entire city to quake, and Matthew describes countless terror-stricken families huddled together and weeping. Once inside, the Muslims “began to mercilessly slaughter the inhabitants of the entire city… and piling up their bodies one on top of the other…. Innumerable and countless boys with bright faces and pretty girls were carried off together with their mothers.”Not only do several Christian sources document the sack of Armenia’s capital—one contemporary succinctly notes that Muhammad “rendered Ani a desert by massacres and fire”—but so do Muslim sources, often in apocalyptic terms: “I wanted to enter the city and see it with my own eyes,” one Arab explained. “I tried to find a street without having to walk over the corpses. But that was impossible.”
Such “was the beginning of the misfortunes of Armenia,” Matthew of Edessa concludes his account: “So, lend an ear to this melancholy recital.” This has proven to be an ominous remark; for the aforementioned history of blood and tears was, indeed, just “the beginning of the misfortunes of Armenia,” whose “melancholy recital” continues to this day.
But what was the reason the Turks invaded and so ruthlessly attacked Armenia? What “grievance” did they have? Simple: Armenia was Christian and the Turks were Muslim—and Islam makes all non-Muslims enemies to be put to the sword, until and unless they submit to Islam.
Incidentally, Islam’s animus for Christianity was on display then no less than now. Thus, during the aforementioned sack of Ani, a Muslim fighter climbed atop the city’s main cathedral “and pulled down the very heavy cross which was on the dome, throwing it to the ground,” wrote Matthew. Made of pure silver and the “size of a man”—and now symbolic of Islam’s might over Christianity—the broken crucifix was sent as a trophy to adorn a mosque in, ironically enough, modern-day Azerbaijan. Fast forward nearly a millennium to Azerbaijan’s war on Armenia in 2020, a Muslim fighter was videotaped triumphantly shouting “Allahu Akbar!” while standing atop an Armenian church chapel where the cross had been broken off.
Such is an idea of what Muslim Turks did to Christian Armenians—not during the Armenian Genocide of a century ago, when some 1.5 million Armenians were massacred and even more displaced—but one thousand years ago, when the Islamic conquest of Armenia first began.
This unrelenting history of hate makes one thing perfectly clear: all modern day pretexts and “territorial disputes” aside, true and permanent peace between Armenia and its Muslim neighbors will only be achieved when the Christian nation has either been conquered or ceded itself into nonexistence.
Nor would it be the first to do so. It is worth recalling that the heart of what is today called “the Muslim world”—the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)—was thoroughly Christian before the sword of Islam invaded. Bit by bit, century after century after the initial Muslim conquests and occupations, it lost its Christian identity, its peoples lost in the morass of Islam, so that few today even remember that Egypt, Iraq, Syria, etc., were among the first and oldest Christian nations.
Armenia—the first nation in the world to adopt Christianity—is a holdout, a thorn in Islam’s side, and, as such, can never know lasting peace from the Muslims surrounding it.
Note: Quotes from Matthew of Edessa were excerpted from Ibrahim’s book, Sword and Scimitar: Fourteen Centuries of War between Islam and the West.