English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 02/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.october02.22.htm

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Bible Quotations For today
False messiahs and false prophets will appear and produce great signs and omens, to lead astray, if possible, even the elect.Take note, I have told you beforehand
Saint Matthew 24/23-31: “If anyone says to you, “Look! Here is the Messiah!” or “There he is!” do not believe it. For false messiahs and false prophets will appear and produce great signs and omens, to lead astray, if possible, even the elect. Take note, I have told you beforehand. So, if they say to you, “Look! He is in the wilderness”, do not go out. If they say, “Look! He is in the inner rooms”, do not believe it. For as the lightning comes from the east and flashes as far as the west, so will be the coming of the Son of Man. Wherever the corpse is, there the vultures will gather. ‘Immediately after the suffering of those days the sun will be darkened, and the moon will not give its light; the stars will fall from heaven, and the powers of heaven will be shaken. Then the sign of the Son of Man will appear in heaven, and then all the tribes of the earth will mourn, and they will see “the Son of Man coming on the clouds of heaven” with power and great glory. And he will send out his angels with a loud trumpet call, and they will gather his elect from the four winds, from one end of heaven to the other.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 01-02/2022
Lebanon receives US proposals for maritime border deal with Israel
Lebanon reviews US proposal to demarcate maritime borders with Israel
Berri says border deal draft meets Lebanese demands
Mikati receives from Shea American Mediator's Offer
Rahi from 'Badr Hassoun' Village: We hope to elect a president, form a government, restore Lebanon's beauty & pride
Army Chief receives Commander of French Armed Forces in Yarze, says "Military institution coherent & capable of protecting Lebanon & its people"
Jumblatt meets with Head of German "Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung" Foundation, confers with Osama Saad on latest developments
Democratic Gathering" signs letter addressed by families of Beirut Port blast victims to UN Human Rights Council over investigations
Army: Former deputy arrested in the town of Minnieh for shooting at a social event
Shea hands Hochstein’s proposal to Aoun, Mikati
US Embassy hosts Mayyas in 1st performance after AGT victory
Reading In Nasrallah's Speech
Sayyed Nasrallah: New Lebanese President Can Never Defy Resistance, Iran is Stronger than Ever
Lebanon’s Presidential Elections: The Aberration of Consensual Democracy/Joseph Hitti/October 01/2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 01-02/2022
Protests In Iran could dismantle Iran’s morality police, campaigners say Maya Oppenheim
19 killed, including 4 IRGC members, in Iran attack
Iran's Gen Z is fed up. The protests aren't just about hijab, they're about regime change.
Iran Guards Commander Killed in Baluchistan Clashes
Mahsa Amini Was Arrested For ‘Bad Hijab.’ But the Only ‘Bad Hijab’ Is a Forced One
How Iranian Informants Were Failed by the CIA
Protesters Rally across Iran in Third Week of Unrest over Amini’s Death
Russia vetoes UN resolution calling its referendums illegal
Putin Celebrates Annexation: People in the 4 Regions Are Becoming Our Citizens Forever
Russia Withdraws Troops after Ukraine Encircles Key City
Russia abandons key bastion, Putin ally suggests a nuclear response
Chechen leader Kadyrov: Russia should use low-yield nuclear weapon after new defeat in Ukraine
Kuwait Govt Sets Date for First Session of New National Assembly

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 01-02/2022
A Domestic Audience for Turkish Foreign Policy/Batu Coşkun, Gökhan Çınkara//The Washington Institute/October 01/2022
Detention Facilities in Syria, Iraq Remain Vulnerable to Islamic State Attacks/Devorah Margolin/The Washington Institute/October 01/2022
The Captagon War: Smuggling on the Jordanian-Syrian Border/Saud Al-Sharafat/The Washington Institute/October 01/2022
Celebrities, the Clergy, and Succession: Wild Cards in Iran’s Protests/Mehdi Khalaji/The Washington Institute/October 01/2022
Biden Administration’s Gift to Russia: Iran Nuke Deal/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/ Gatestone Institute/October 01/2022
The emerging Biden doctrine and what it means for the world/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/October 01, 2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on October 01-02/2022
Lebanon receives US proposals for maritime border deal with Israel
The National/October 01/2022
Israel and Lebanon have been in dispute for years over offshore gasfields
Lebanon has said it received a letter from US envoy Amos Hochstein containing "proposals" on a maritime border deal with Israel that could settle competing claims over offshore gasfields. President Michel Aoun met US ambassador Dorothy Shea "who handed him a written letter ... containing proposals regarding the demarcation of the southern maritime border," his office said on Saturday. Ms Shea also met Prime Minister Najib Mikati and "delivered a written offer from the US mediator", Mr Mikati's office said. The US Embassy in Beirut said Ms Shea also met Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to present Mr Hochstein's proposals. Mr Aoun contacted Mr Mikati and Mr Berri to discuss ways to follow up on the offer and deliver Lebanon's response "as quickly as possible", the presidency said. Lebanon and Israel, whose land border is UN-patrolled, have no diplomatic relations. They resumed maritime border negotiations in 2020, but the process was stalled by Beirut's claim that the map used by the UN in the talks needed to be modified. The US-mediated negotiations restarted in early June after Israel moved a production vessel near the Karish offshore field, which is partly claimed by Lebanon. Saturday's announcement followed a string of statements by Lebanese officials, including Mr Aoun and Mr Mikati, expressing optimism that a deal with Israel was near. "The Lebanese response will be made as soon as possible, in preparation for the next step," an official at the president's office told AFP on Saturday. Last month, Mr Aoun told the UN's special co-ordinator for Lebanon, Joanna Wronecka, that "negotiations to demarcate the southern maritime borders are in their final stages".

Lebanon reviews US proposal to demarcate maritime borders with Israel
Najat Houssari/Arab News/October 01/2022
BEIRUT: The US ambassador to Lebanon on Saturday delivered a maritime border demarcation proposal to President Michel Aoun, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri. “Things seem very positive,” Ambassador Dorothy Shea said after separate meetings with the three men. Shea presented a written message from Amos Hochstein, the US mediator in the indirect negotiations between Lebanon and Israel on the demarcation issue. A technical team is expected to discuss the content of Hochstein’s 10-page proposal before Lebanon submits an official response next week. A copy of the proposal was also referred to the Lebanese Army Command for review. Aoun is keen to resolve the demarcation issue before his six-year term concludes at the end of the month. If the US proposal is approved, an agreement might be signed by the middle of the month. After Aoun’s initial talks with Berri and Mikati, the three men are expected to meet next week to formulate their response.
Hochstein had promised to present a formula that would bring the points of view closer, especially over the land point from which the line originates, as Lebanon insists on amending it due to the violation of its territorial waters before reaching the exclusive economic zone. Lebanon has so far rejected every Israeli attempt to establish the “line of buoys” that Israel adheres to as if it were the land border line with Lebanon. Lebanon meanwhile believes that it (the disputed block) lies within Lebanese territorial waters and refuses to discuss the matter. Legal expert Christina Abi Haidar told Arab News: “Giving up the demarcation from the land, specifically from Ras Al-Naqoura, would mean that the adoption of Line 29 to demarcate the border has inevitably fallen, and we will likely have to share the blocks with Israel.”
Iran-backed Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah had warned against any Israeli exploration and extraction in the disputed blocks before Lebanon gains its full rights in the waters.
Aoun formed a team made up of legal, technical and administrative experts to review the content of Hochstein’s offer. As well as Berri and Mikati, the consultations are also likely to involve the Hezbollah leadership, which is awaiting Lebanon’s official position. Israel is keen to complete the demarcation of the maritime borders so it can take steps to extract gas from the Karish field, and especially as the negotiations are being exploited in its parliamentary elections.
French company Total is also awaiting the deal so it can launch its program for exploration operations in the Lebanese fields in accordance with the agreements in force with the Ministry of Energy. Israel’s Channel 12 reported on Saturday that Israeli security staff will ratify the border demarcation agreement with Lebanon next week. But energy expert Diana Qaisi told Arab News that the matter was still unclear. “The Lebanese state is required to inform the public of the Israeli offer,” she said. “They say that the demarcation of the land point from which the sea demarcation line will start is postponed until the land border is demarcated, which means that the dispute has not yet been resolved. It was rather pushed to a later stage.”Also on Saturday, the French Foreign Ministry stressed the importance of Lebanon electing a new president before Oct. 31. A ministry spokesman said Lebanese leaders “must be up to the task, which requires unity and taking the necessary measures to end the crisis.” French Army Chief of Staff Gen. Thierry Burkhard, who is in Beirut, met Lebanese Army Commander Gen. Joseph Aoun to discuss ways to enhance cooperation between the two armies. Burkhard praised the role played by the Lebanese military in maintaining security and stability in the country. He also reiterated France’s support for the Lebanese army, in terms of providing emergency aid and developing its operational capabilities, and its commitment to participating in the UNIFIL peacekeeping forces. For his part, Gen. Aoun said the Lebanese army remained cohesive and able to protect the nation and its people.

Berri says border deal draft meets Lebanese demands
Naharnet/October 01/2022
Speaker Nabih Berri said Saturday that the draft final agreement submitted by U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein for sea border demarcation with Israel is positive and "in principle meets the Lebanese demands that refuse any impact for the sea agreement on the land border."In remarks to Asharq al-Awsat newspaper Berri added that the draft consists of "10 English-language pages and requires examination before a final response can be given."The Speaker also said that the agreement would be signed at the Naqoura border point.

Mikati receives from Shea American Mediator's Offer
NNA/October 01/2022
Prime Minister Najib Mikati received at his residence today US Ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea. During the visit, Shea handed Mikati the written offer of the American mediator in the indirect negotiations for the demarcation of the southern maritime border, Amos Hochstein, regarding the border demarcation.

Rahi from 'Badr Hassoun' Village: We hope to elect a president, form a government, restore Lebanon's beauty & pride
NNA/October 01/2022
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, hoped Saturday for having a new president of the republic, a new government and restoring the beauty and good reputation of Lebanon. His words came during his visit today to the "Badr Hassoun" environmental village, accompanied by the Caretaker Minister of Economy Amin Salam, where they laid the foundation stone for the “Valley of Feelings” project in the village's "Khan Al-Saboun" - Dahr El-Ain El-Koura district, in the presence of the President of the Chamber of Commerce, Agriculture and Industry in the North, Toufic al-Daboussi, alongside a number of mayors and security and military leaders and economists from the region. The Patriarch commended the Hassoun family's tremendous efforts, saying: "I am very happy to be with the Minister of Economy and the President of the Chamber of Commerce in Tripoli and all the honorable and dear faces present today...We are in Khan Al-Tuyyub, the human nature, the kindness of love that is evident through every work you do...This is our second visit because of the importance of this place and our pride in its historical achievements that have gone beyond Lebanon to the whole world.”
"We hope that Lebanon will come out of this shameful stage, for it does not represent the real Lebanon, the Lebanon of giving and the beautiful fragrance, Lebanon that is creative and generous...," the Patriarch went on. "Through you, we hope to restore our role in the world, and we hope that a president will be elected and a new government will be formed, and that Lebanon will restore its beauty and proud name in the world, and we are sure that we will overcome the ordeal and the dark clouds," al-Rahi reassured. He concluded: "Our wealth is in our minds, thoughts and creativity, and this is a testimony we have heard from the five continents...During our encounters, everyone asserts that the Lebanese people are creative, Muslims and Christians."

Army Chief receives Commander of French Armed Forces in Yarze, says "Military institution coherent & capable of protecting Lebanon & its people"
NNA /October 01/2022
Lebanese Army Chief, General Joseph Aoun received in his office in Yazre this morning the Commander of the French Armed Forces, General Thierry Burkhard, with whom he discussed ways of enhancing cooperation and coordination between the two armies. General Burkhard commended the "prominent and important role played by the military institution in terms of maintaining security and stability in Lebanon," stressing "continued support for the army, especially in terms of providing emergency aid and developing its operational capabilities, in addition to the continued commitment of his country to participate in the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon - UNIFIL."In turn, General Aoun thanked his French counterpart for his country's ongoing support for Lebanon and its army, noting that "this support contributes to the military institution's sustainability to execute the many and complex tasks required of it, while facing challenges due to the economic, political and social situation prevailing in the country, whereby its soldiers still believe in the sanctity of their mission."Aoun stressed that "the institution is still cohesive and able to protect Lebanon and its people, and that the army leadership is seeking with all its efforts to alleviate the burden of the crisis off the shoulders of the military."

Jumblatt meets with Head of German "Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung" Foundation, confers with Osama Saad on latest developments
NNA/October 01/2022
Progressive Socialist Party Chief, Walid Jumblatt, received at his Clemenceau residence on Saturday, the Secretary-General of the Nasserite Popular Organization, MP Osama Saad, where both men broached the latest political developments and general conditions prevailing in the country. Jumblatt also received a delegation from the German Friedrich Ebert Foundation, which included its president, Martin Schulz, and a number of officials in the foundation and the representative office in Lebanon. The activation and continuation of cooperation, coordination and joint functions between the foundation and the party topped their discussions.

Democratic Gathering" signs letter addressed by families of Beirut Port blast victims to UN Human Rights Council over investigations
NNA/October 01/2022
Head of the "Democratic Gathering" Bloc, MP Taymour Jumblatt, and members of the Gathering signed a letter addressed by the families of the victims of the Beirut Port explosion to the United Nations Human Rights Council, presenting the course of investigations and the official Lebanese manner of dealing with the explosion since it occurred on August 4, 2020, and the attempts to disrupt the investigation. The letter is directed to the Council, "because this is the appropriate time for it to intervene in order to preserve the rights of the victims and to press for an international investigation that reveals the truth and punishes those involved."This step comes within the context of the position of the Bloc and the Progressive Socialist Party from the first moment of the explosion, as they were the first to call for an international investigation to reveal the truth about what happened in the port, noting that PSP Chief Walid Jumblatt had a proactive and advanced position in this regard since the very first day of the crime.

Army: Former deputy arrested in the town of Minnieh for shooting at a social event
NNA/October 01/2022
The Army Command - Orientation Directorate issued the following statement: "A patrol of the Intelligence Directorate arrested former MP Othman Alameddine for shooting with a military weapon on 9/29/2022 at his home in the town of Minnieh during a social event."
"An investigation has begun with the arrestedunder the supervision of the specialized judiciary," the statement added.

Shea hands Hochstein’s proposal to Aoun, Mikati
Associated Press/Agence France Presse/October 01/2022
U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea on Saturday separately handed each of President Michel Aoun and PM-designate Najib Mikati a written proposal from U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein for the demarcation of Lebanon’s sea border with Israel. The Presidency said Aoun called Speaker Nabih Berri and Mikati after receiving the proposal to consult with them over the issue in order to “give the U.S. mediator a Lebanese response as soon as possible.”Al-Jadeed TV meanwhile reported that the letter “contains the final U.S. proposal that was drafted by Amos Hochstein regarding the demarcation of the maritime border.”
“The U.S. proposal includes a total separation between maritime and land demarcation and an agreement that any sea point agreed on would not later affect the demarcation of the land border,” al-Jadeed added. A Lebanese official who attended the talks last month told The Associated Press that the proposal put forward by the U.S. envoy gives Lebanon the right to the Qana field, located partially in Israel's domain. A part of it stretches deep into a disputed area. The official added that the main point now is how to draw the demarcation line in a way that stretches south of Qana.
"The Lebanese response will be made as soon as possible, in preparation for the next step," an official at the president's office told AFP on Saturday on the condition of anonymity.
Last month, Aoun told the U.N.'s special coordinator for Lebanon, Joanna Wronecka, that "negotiations to demarcate the southern maritime borders are in their final stages."

US Embassy hosts Mayyas in 1st performance after AGT victory
Naharnet /October 01/2022
U.S. Ambassador Dorothy Shea and the U.S. Embassy in Beirut hosted an evening with the Mayyas dance group and a discussion with choreographer Nadim Cherfan, following the group’s recent victory on the America’s Got Talent TV competition series, the Embassy said on Saturday. The event was held as part of the Embassy’s “Meet the Artist” series, which highlights emerging Lebanese talents from all artistic backgrounds. Not only was the event the group’s first performance in Lebanon following their U.S. victory, but it offered an inside look into choreographer Nadim Cherfan’s background, inspiration, and effort to create the Mayyas dance group. During the event, Mayyas performed a newly-composed dance, followed by a discussion between Ambassador Shea and Cherfan, which included questions from the audience of emerging Lebanese dancers, celebrities, and other influential members of the vibrant Lebanese arts and culture scene. Shea provided Cherfan a platform to discuss his experience as a Lebanese artist, how he founded Mayyas, and the obstacles they encountered over the years, including societal acceptance of the group’s female composition. Cherfan underscored the importance of the girls’ role in representing Lebanon’s diversity of backgrounds and geographies as a means to bring the country together through the universal language of dance. Cherfan pointed out that despite all the difficulties, Mayyas won “America’s Got Talent” purely on merit, through the perseverance of its dancers, their sheer artistic and athletic abilities, creativity, and hard work. Ambassador Shea also expressed her pride in Mayyas’ achievements and noted that she was one of the many millions who voted for them in the finale.

Reading In Nasrallah's Speech
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Face Book /October 01/2022
It's been a while since I've listened to a full Nasrallah speech. I did it today. Over 90 percent of his information are myths that can be dispelled with minimum effort. I'd have said that he knows he is wrong and still disseminates disinformation, misinformation, and propaganda. But as someone who was once obsessed with Saddam and read every word about him including hours of investigations, I came to the conclusion that Saddam truly believed the crap that he peddled. This makes me think that Nasrallah is honest in his statements. He genuinely believes that the US made ISIS (and that there is a Republican senator who said we the US shipped 100s of thousand of ISIS fighters from 100s of countries), that Russia is winning, that Iran is a bunch of angels who want nothing in return except for helping the downtrodden of the world, and that all Lebanon needs is to pump some gas to fix its economy and can continue working on sending the Jews packing to Europe, which will happen in Nasrallah's lifetime. The man is not lying. He is honest and totally delusional, and he is unfortunately Lebanon's undisputed ruler, underneath him is a cast of silly and irrelevant idiots who think they have a state and are presiding over it (or working to change it, same irrelevance).

Sayyed Nasrallah: New Lebanese President Can Never Defy Resistance, Iran is Stronger than Ever
Mohammad Salami/Al-Manar English Website/ October 01, 2022
Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah highlighted on Saturday the US move of sending a written proposal that sums up their mediation principles to the concerned officials in Lebanon, describing it as a positive step on the way of reaching a peaceful solution to the dispute with the Zionist enemy over the demarcation of the maritime borders. Addressing a memorial service of late cleric Sayyed Mohammad Ali Al-Amin held in Shaqra town, southern Lebanon, Sayyed Nasrallah indicated that Hezbollah supports the Lebanese authorities tasked with taking the appropriate decision regarding the maritime borders and the negotiations with the US mediator. His eminence emphasized that any US-Israeli concessions in the negotiations are attributed to Lebanon’s power represented by the Resistance, not the generosity of Washington and Tel Aviv. Sayyed Nasrallah indicated that when Lebanon obtains its maritime rights and resources, it will be able to cope with its economic crisis and will never be in need of international aids. Relying on the national unity, strength and unity, the Lebanese can extract the maritime gas, according to Sayyed Nasrallah who highlighted the role of political, media and military struggle in order to obtain the nation’s rights.
Presidential Elections
Hezbollah Secretary General deemed as important the parliament ‘s session to elect a new president, adding that what happened proved that none of the political parties and alliances possess the majority. Calling for electing a new president imminently, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that the lawmakers must never elect a president who plans to challenge the Resistance. Sayyed Nasrallah also underlined the importance of forming a new government regardless of the development of the presidential elections file. Sayyed Nasrallah called on the Lebanese authorities to uncover the truth about the “death boats” which are carrying the illegal immigrants into their demise, offering condolences to the families of the martyrs who were killed when their boat capsized off syria’s Tartus. In this regard, Sayyed Nasrallah thanked the Syrian authorities which exerted much effort to rescue some of the immigrants and return the bodies of the martyrs.
International Affairs
Hezbollah Chief said that the US administration has pushed Ukraine to fight Russia, highlighting Washington’s rejection of Zelemsky’s request to join NATO. USA wants Ukraine and Europe to fight Russia in order to reap the fruits and gains of the confrontation, according to Sayyed Nasrallah.
Iran
The Islamic Resistance Leader noted that ISIL was eradicated as a ruling system, not as a terrorist group, adding that the US forces have always moved the defeated militants from the areas they withdraw from to Afghanistan. Sayyed Nasrallah added that ISIL terrorists commit every week a horrible crime by sending suicide bombers to kill the innocent civilians, adding that the international community, media outlets and social media websites disregard such atrocities. His eminence noted that the vague death of an Iranian woman caused a global outcry which disregarded the death 50 martyrs few days earlier. Sayyed Nasrallah added that the international move comes in the context of targeting the Islamic Republic and its regime, adding that vague incidents are utilized in order to reach this end. Hezbollah Leader recalled the US involvement in establishing, funding, training and supporting ISIL terrorist group which had committed heinous atrocities in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and other countries. Sayyed Nasrallah reiterated that Iranian role in the axis of resistance is central, adding that the Islamic Republic has been being targeted since the Islamic Revolution emerged victorious and citing the assassination of its politicians and scientists, the Gulf-funded and globally supported war which lasted for eight years, and the media incitement which addresses the Iranian youths by using hostile Persian websites. His eminence stressed that the United States of America cannot wage a war against the Islamic Republic because Iran is a powerful nation, and the US sanctions have failed to reach any considerable results.Sayyed Nasrallah recalled the latest lie promoted by the hostile media about the medical conditions of Imam Sayyed Ali Khamenei before his eminence attended in person Arbaeen mourning ceremony and exposed their claims.
After the vague incident, hundreds or thousands of protesters participated in certain demonstrations, and the international media, according to Sayyed Nasrallah who added that, when millions of Iranian took to streets in support of the Islamic Republic, the international media resorted to silence and voiced frustration.
Sayyed Nasrallah affirmed that Iran is a very powerful nation and the Iranian people are committed to Islam and Prophet Muhammad (PBUH), calling for watching the scenes of the major events, including the visit to Imam Rida (P) Holy Shrine and the funeral of the former Head of IRGC Al-Quds Force Commander martyr General Qassem Suleimani to realize the reality of the Iranians. Hezbollah Secretary General reassured Iran’s lovers that the Islamic Republic is more powerful than ever, calling for calming down despite all the circulated rumors. Iran faced and overcame much more dangerous incidents, thanks to its faith in God, wise leader and generous people, according to Sayyed Nasrallah. Sayyed Nasrallah noted that the Western and Gulf media outlets have always promoted grudge against the Islamic Republic, addressing the Iraqi people particularly. Stressing that he would not interfere in the Iraqi issues, Sayyed Nasrallah warned the Iraqi’s against demonizing Iran. Based on Hezbollah’s 400year relation with the Islamic Republic, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed that Iran does not want anything from the regional peoples. Sayyed Nasrallah added that Iran makes sacrifice for the sake of the Iraqis, recalling how Iran supported Iraq upon the invasion of ISIL terrorist group. Sayyed Nasrallah asked, “How would a normal human look with amiability at Saudi which dispatched 5000 suicide bombers to kill men, women and children in Iraq and antagonizes Iran which did everything to protect Iraq from the terrorists and liberate it from the US occupation?
Anyone who promotes that Iran has colonial schemes in Iraq is a liar and traitor, Sayyed Nasrallah stressed. Sayyed Nasrallah also asked, “Had not it been for the Islamic Republic of Iran after Camp David deal and the geopolitical changes, where would Lebanon, Palestine and Al-Quds have been?”“Had not Iran supported the regional countries in face of ISIL terrorist group, what would have happened in Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria?”Sayyed Nasrallah addressed those who bet on the Americans, underlining that US rejection of Ukraine’s request to join NATO in order to let the Ukrainians fight alone.
Condolences
Sayyed Nasrallah had started his speech by condoling with the honorable members of Al-Amin family, Shaqra town locals, and all the Lebanese and Muslims on the loss of this beloved father, late Sayyed Mohammad Ali al-Amin. “The late scholar, Sayyed Muhammad Ali Al-Amin is an ascetic, pious and expert scholar who reminds you of the righteous predecessors.”Sayyed Nasrallah added that Sayyed Al-Amin joined Imam Sayyed Moussa Al-Sadr in his political and jihadi struggle in Lebanon and was one of founders of the Supreme Islamic Shiite Council in Lebanon. Sayyed Nasrallah called for collecting the ancient documents that perpetuate our history which has been so far just imagined, underlining the importance of religious contributions in this regard. Sayyed Nasrallah added that Sayyed Al-Amin has always supported the Resistance in face of the Israeli enemy and the terrorist groups in the region, adding that the late scholar has always appreciated the role of the Resistance in sustaining peace, calm and pride in Lebanon. Sayyed Al-Amin established the Islamic Studies Institute in Tyre City in order to prepare new scholars among whom was the former Hezbollah Secretary General Martyr Sayyed Abbas Al-Moussawi. Sayyed Nasrallah underscored that Sayyed Al-Amin realized the danger posed by the takfiri groups since its beginning of the terrorist scheme in Syria in 2011. In this regard, Sayyed Nasrallah recalled the confessions made by the US Senator Richard Black who said that US has used proxies in Syria to overthrow the government and plunder the natural resources in order to starve the Syrians and eradicate all the forms of life.

Lebanon’s Presidential Elections: The Aberration of Consensual Democracy
Joseph Hitti/October 01/2022
مقالة علمية ودستورية باللغة الإنكليزية للناشط السيادي جوزيف حتي، من المفيد الإطلاع عليها لمعرفة حقيقة هرطقة ونفاق وشذوذ ما يسمى “ديموقراطية توافقية” وأخطارها السيئة على الإنتخابات الرئاسية، وعلى كيف يستغلها بخبث بري وغيره من المعادين للديموقراطية وللحريات في لبنان للسيطرة على البلد وجره إلى الضياع والفقر والفوضى والتفكك. المقالة تشرح أيضاً المسلسل التدميري للنظام اللبناني الذي توّج باتفاق الطائف اللعين.
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/112395/joseph-hitti-lebanons-presidential-elections-the-aberration-of-consensual-democracy-%d9%85%d9%82%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a9-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d9%88%d8%af%d8%b3%d8%aa%d9%88%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%a9/
Lebanon is not a democracy. By themselves, elections do not make a democracy. The Europeans, for example, refer to the right-wing systems now in place in Hungary or Poland – and maybe soon in Italy – as “Electoral Autocracies”, as opposed to the “Liberal Democracies” in place in other European countries. For example, see [ https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/09/15/hungary-is-no-longer-a-full-democracy-but-an-electoral-autocracy-meps-declare-in-new-repor ] about Hungary.
As defined in [ https://www.quora.com/What-does-electoral-autocracy-mean?share=1 ], an Electoral Autocracy “refers to a system of democratic government in which the constitutional machinery that is mandated to provide transparent system of governance has failed to give the required outcome”. In an electoral autocracy, people go to elections and vote for representative government. But the elected government proceeds to curtail the other attributes of a liberal democracy, such as restricting the freedom of the press and of speech, limiting the separation of powers and interfering in the judiciary which loses its independence, and using unlawful means to fight its opponents, among other things.
From its inception and up to the Taif Agreement (1989), Lebanon was a liberal democracy. Its constitution provided for all the freedoms and there were genuine elections in which rivals ran as candidates, and losers ceded authority to winners. The system was a parliamentary one but with strong presidential powers that rendered the decision-making fast and effective. The constitution itself did not mention the sectarian identities of representatives or of the President or Prime Minister of Speaker of Parliament. However, there was a non-written understanding known as the “National Pact”, a tradition adopted in 1943 that attributed the presidency to a Maronite Catholic, the Speakership of Parliament to a Shiite Muslim, and the Premiership to a Sunni Muslim, and so on and so forth down the hierarchy, granting every religious sect a proportionate representation in the workings of government and administration.
The Taif Agreement, which amended Lebanon’s constitution at the end of the 1975-1990 Lebanon War between the Palestinians (e.g., Yasser Arafat’s Palestine Liberation Organization, the PLO) and Lebanese grassroots militias (e.g., the Kataeb), aimed at correcting what the Muslims, most notably the Sunnis, perceived as an unfair disequilibrium favoring the Christians. In other words, the Muslims saw that an effective liberal democracy was incompatible with the National Pact. On one hand, the Pact granted the presidency to a Maronite Catholic Christian, and on the other hand the constitution granted that Christian president powers that, although normal in a liberal democracy, were seen as unfair by the Muslims. The Muslims, ever so allergic to being ruled by a non-Muslim, could not countenance that a Christian President had the power to destitute a Sunni Prime Minister and appoint another, or dissolve a Shiite-led Parliament overnight and call for elections.
By the mid-1960s, in the midst of global revolutions sweeping the world, the Muslims began complaining about the state of affairs, notwithstanding the fact that the liberal democratic system under a powerful Christian President had taken Lebanon into its golden age. Between the mid-1940s and the mid-1970s, Lebanon was prosperous, cosmopolitan, and attracted capitals and tourism.
With the advent of the PLO in 1965, which established its headquarters in Beirut in 1970 (after it was crushed in Amman by King Hussein of Jordan in the notorious Black September), the Lebanese Sunnis saw the PLO as a paramilitary instrument they could use to alter the incompatibility between the constitution and the National Pact. In effect, the Palestinians, who are Sunnis in their vast majority, became the army of the Lebanese Sunnis. Every constitutional action and decision taken by the Christian President were challenged by the Sunnis, a situation which escalated into a full-fledged war pitting on one side the Lebanese Army and security forces still under the command of the President in the initial phase of the conflict, and on the other side the PLO and its satellite Muslim (Sunni, Druze, Shiite) militias. I remember watching from the town of Hadath in 1973 the jets of the Lebanese Air Force bombing the fortified Palestinian camps of Sabra and Shatila by order of the President, an unthinkable occurrence in today’s Lebanon.
The Assad dictatorship in neighboring Syria sent its own Palestinian militias (the Saika, the Yarmuk Brigades, the Palestine Liberation Army, etc.) to rally with the PLO and the Lebanese Muslims in undermining stability in Lebanon. In turn, Christian militias were formed that backed the Army initially, but then, when the Army fractured along sectarian lines, became the direct enemies of the Syrian-Palestinian-Sunni coalition known as the National Movement. For example, a Sunni Army lieutenant by the name of Ahmad Khatib seceded and formed his own Arab Army of Lebanon that went on a rampage in the south, attacking regular units of the Lebanese Army in their barracks, and isolating a large swath of territory south of the Litani River bordering on the Israeli border from the central government in Beirut. That territory was controlled by regular Lebanese Army units led by Major Saad Haddad which maintained the State’s sovereignty in the area. As their isolation deepened, however, the Major Haddad opened the border with Israel from whom his people received much needed assistance in food, medical care, and military support. That was the genesis of what later became the Israeli-occupied “border strip” which Hezbollah falsely claims to have liberated. The residents of the Border Strip, Christians, and Muslims alike, were essentially defenders of Lebanon’s sovereignty against the assault on the State by the Palestinians and their Lebanese Sunni manipulators.
The Taif Agreement sealed the defeat of Lebanon’s Christians who tried to keep Lebanon as a liberal democracy with standard operating rules of governance. In the Taif Agreement, Lebanon’s liberal democracy became an “electoral autocracy” which the Lebanese proudly brag about as a “consensual democracy”, i.e., a fallacy or a parody of a democracy. Not only did the Taif Agreement enshrine the National Pact into the constitution – it is now written that the President be a Maronite, the Speaker of Parliament a Shiite, and the Prime Minister a Sunni – it also redistributed the formerly concentrated presidential powers among the three top offices. In other words, what used to be a mono-cephalic presidential system became a tri-cephalic monster where decisions could never be made, as has been the situation since the Syrian army was evicted in 2005. In fact, prior to 2005, the only reason the system appeared to work was that all decisions were dictated from Damascus via the Syrian occupation of the country.
The aberration of “consensual democracy”, a Lebanese nomenclature for what amounts to an “electoral autocracy”, consists in holding elections, but then regardless of the outcome of the elections, the bosses of the sects sit down together, often in dark rooms and behind closed doors, and make decisions as they see fit. Which means that elections are really a farce.
A perfect example of this aberration is currently on display. The Christian President is elected by Parliament, not by universal suffrage, which makes the choice of a President even more removed from anything democratic. Yesterday (Thursday Sept. 29), Parliament met and voted, without any candidate achieving a majority. But then, instead of moving automatically to a second vote with a lesser majoritarian requirement (from two-thirds to a simple 51%) as required by the constitution, the Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri (head of the Shiite Amal militia, and a dinosaur autocrat occupying the Speakership since 1992) adjourned the session and declared that he will call Parliament for a second session later, “when a consensus is reached about the identity of the president”.
In other words, autocrat Berri doesn’t want a real election where two or more candidates compete. He wants his peers, in their vast majority sectarian bosses, or vassals of foreign countries, or former militia warlords, or their recently elected progeny, to make a deal over one candidate behind closed doors, then tell him they have a candidate, at which time he will convene Parliament to rubber-stamp the lucky bastard. What happens behind those closed doors leading to a single candidate? Phone calls to Tehran, or Riyadh, or Paris, or Washington, directly or via their local ambassadors, bartering favors and deals, bribes by the millions of dollars, etc.
For now, the two sides of the political divide are just about equally represented in Parliament, but neither has the majority: The pro-Iran/Syria side (Hezbollah, Amal, Aoun and Bassil’s Christian FPM, etc. known as March-8), and the pro-Saudi/US side (Lebanese Forces, Kataeb, etc., known as March-14). But there is a group of 12 MPs who breached the traditional lineups at the elections last May. They are known as the “Reformers” or “Independents” who refuse to play by the old rules and do not want to be cast into either of the two camps. They want a candidate who is not affiliated with the traditionalists of either side. They are generally closer in outlook with the March-14 camp but refuse to rally under its umbrella. Yet, the Reformers are not kingmakers whose vote can sway the outcome in favor of March-8. The Reformers’ vote can either favor the March-14 group (if the two sides can agree on one candidate), or a candidate from outside the two camps, but never a March-8 candidate. And this is precisely what happened during the first session. March-14 had a candidate (Michel Mouawad), the Reformers had a candidate (Selim Edde), while the other side dropped a blank vote and is suspected of wanting to scuttle the elections and leave a vacuum in the presidency.
The crux of the matter is that the Lebanese electorate unfortunately remains very conservative and voted for a tiny bit of reform, not enough for reform to materialize. Since the country needs to shake off the old guard of corruption and backroom deals of both traditional camps, the Reformers are, on principle, correct in holding the independent line. But in practice, they don’t have the critical mass to control the vote, and therefore they must join with the March-14 in these elections for the simple objective of defeating the pro-Iran/Syria camp. The country will not survive another six years of a Aoun-like presidency under constant threat by the illegal weapons of Hezbollah. Sadly, real reform will have to wait for the next parliamentary elections. Until then, the Reformers can prove to the Lebanese people that they are able to make short-term coalitions without sacrificing their principles and long-term objectives.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 01-02/2022
Protests In Iran could dismantle Iran’s morality police, campaigners say Maya Oppenheim
The Associated Press/October 01/2022
Protests which have erupted across Iran could topple the police force which monitors and arrests women who infringe the Islamic dress code, a prominent global human rights organisation has warned. Rothna Begum, a senior researcher in the women’s rights division at Human Rights Watch, told The Independent Iran’s morality police “could have their powers” removed due to the backlash they are facing. Her comments come after Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish woman, was placed in one of the morality police’s vehicles before dying in police custody in mid-September. Ms Amini was detained by the morality police for allegedly infringing Iran’s stringent rules on hijabs - sparking almost two weeks of protests. Women’s rights are profoundly restricted in Iran and wearing a headscarf is compulsory in public for all women, with those who do not wear a hijab, or have some of their hair on display while wearing a hijab, facing punishments ranging from fines to imprisonment. Morality police, also known as Guidance Patrol, have been “emboldened” in Iran in recent months and years, Ms Begum, who specialises in the Middle East and North Africa, said.
The researcher noted women are calling for the abolition of the compulsory hijab in Iran as she warned the protests are challenging the “wider pattern of repression”. Ms Begum added: “I don’t think anyone was expecting these protests to happen. Iran should abolish the morality police and the compulsory hijab laws and repeal all discriminatory laws and policies against women.
“Women in Iran have a rich long history of defying repression and demanding their rights. “ While women have campaigned on a range of issues and have protested against a number of discriminatory laws and policies against women including compulsory hijab, with many sentenced to prison terms, this time we are seeing men and women, regular people, taking to the streets and such protests are taking place all around the country.”
While Dr Dima Dabbous, of Equality Now, a global non-government organisation which promotes the rights of women and girls, told The Independent the Iranian government is “completely oblivious” to the wider international community.
Dr Dabbous added: “I fear for women in Iran, these women are on their own inside. Popular support within the country will not save them. In the region, feminist NGOs are very limited in how they operate and the extent to which they can mobilise. They cannot receive funding - that is how they are choked.
“The entire feminist movement in the region of the middle east and north Africa is undermined by the authorities branding it as an agent of the west. That is the easiest way to kill them off - to destroy the movement. It is a tactic to downplay and negate the movement - to kill it symbolically. It is a classic excuse to get rid of internal dissent.”It comes after earlier in the week, Mansoureh Mills, a researcher at leading human rights organisation Amnesty International, told The Independent the so-called morality police, set up in 2005, “enforces these abusive and discriminatory laws” and needs to be scrapped. She also warned the number of protesters being killed in Iran is higher than state TV figures claim, with the Iranian authorities exhibiting a “pattern of distorting the truth” to conceal human rights abuses. Protests in Iran have swept across over 80 cities and towns across Iran - with women waving their hijabs and hurling them in bonfires and chopping off their hair at the forefront of protests. Over 1,200 protesters are estimated to have been arrested in the largest demonstrations to descend on Iran’s streets in nearly three years. Crowds have demanded Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is ousted as well as shouting “Woman, Life, Freedom!”, “We don’t want the Islamic republic” and “Death to the dictator”. Ms Amini was arrested by the morality police in the Iranian capital of Tehran on 13 September - collapsing in the wake of being transported to a detention centre before later going on to die in hospital.

19 killed, including 4 IRGC members, in Iran attack
AP/October 01, 2022
TEHRAN: An attack by armed separatists on a police station in a southeastern city killed 19 people, including four members of Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard, Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency reported Saturday. The assailants in Friday’s attack hid among worshippers near a mosque in the city of Zahedan and attacked the nearby police station, according to the report. IRNA quoted Hossein Modaresi, the provincial governor, as saying 19 people were killed. The outlet said 32 Guard members, including volunteer Basiji forces, were also wounded in the clashes. It was not immediately clear if the attack was related to nationwide anti-government protests gripping Iran after the death in police custody of a young Iranian woman.Sistan and Baluchestan province borders Afghanistan and Pakistan and has seen previous attacks on security forces by ethnic Baluchi separatists, although Saturday’s Tasnim report did not identify a separatist group allegedly involved in the attack. IRNA on Saturday identified the dead as Hamidreza Hashemi, a Revolutionary Guard colonel; Mohammad Amin Azarshokr, a Guard member; Mohamad Amin Arefi, a Basiji, or volunteer force with the IRG; and Saeed Borhan Rigi, also a Basiji. Tasnim and other state-linked Iranian news outlets reported Friday that the head of the Guard’s intelligence department, Seyyed Ali Mousavi, was shot during the attack and later died. It is not unusual for IRG members to be present at police bases around the country.
Thousands of Iranians have taken to the streets over the last two weeks to protest the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman who had been detained by the morality police in the capital of Tehran for allegedly wearing her mandatory Islamic headscarf too loosely.
The protesters have vented their anger over the treatment of women and wider repression in the Islamic Republic. The nationwide demonstrations rapidly escalated into calls for the overthrow of the clerical establishment that has ruled Iran since its 1979 Islamic revolution.
The protests have drawn supporters from various ethnic groups, including Kurdish opposition movements in the northwest that operate along the border with neighboring Iraq. Amini was an Iranian Kurd and the protests first erupted in Kurdish areas.
Iranian state TV has reported that at least 41 protesters and police have been killed since the demonstrations began Sept. 17. An Associated Press count of official statements by authorities tallied at least 14 dead, with more than 1,500 demonstrators arrested.
Also on Friday, Iran said it had arrested nine foreigners linked to the protests, which authorities have blamed on hostile foreign entities, without providing evidence. It has been difficult to gauge the extent of the protests, particularly outside of Tehran. Iranian media have only sporadically covered the demonstrations. Witnesses said scattered protests involving dozens of demonstrators took place Saturday around a university in downtown Tehran. Riot police dispersed the protesters, who chanted “death to dictator.” Some witnesses said police fired teargas.
Iranian opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, meanwhile, reminded Iran’s armed forces of their duty to people’s lives and rights, the foreign-based opposition Telegram channel Kaleme reported. Mousavi’s Green Movement challenged Iran’s disputed 2009 presidential election in unrest at a level unseen since its 1979 Islamic Revolution before being crushed by authorities. “Obviously your capability that was awarded to you is for defending people, not suppression people, defending oppressed, not serving powerful people and oppressors,” he said.

Iran's Gen Z is fed up. The protests aren't just about hijab, they're about regime change.
Neda Bolourchi/Us Today/October 01/2022
Those are the words Iranian women have been chanting during protests against their government for the past several weeks. Used by Kurdish female soldiers in their fight against the Islamic State terrorist group, these words also define the very essence of the ongoing protests against the Islamic Republic of Iran that at minimum say women demand a life of freedom. These protests are in response to the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, from Iran’s Kurdistan region. In the capital city of Tehran to visit family, Amini was arrested on Sept. 13 by the morality police for “wearing inappropriate clothing.” This police group patrols public spaces looking for people – especially women – who violate the norms of “public decency” with their clothing, haircuts, behavior and “bad” hair coverings. Amini died in custody after spending three days in a coma. Amini’s death comes from the intensification of repressive state policies under President Ebrahim Raisi's administration. It recently announced the intention to aggressively target women not in “modest dress” or in “bad makeup.” The police tend to monitor and more strictly enforce regulations in places with a higher percentage of poor, ethnic, or religious women.
An end to morality police
Iranian women and their allies have called for an end to the morality police and the very system that upholds it. In alleyways, up and down highways and everywhere in between, protesters can be heard also chanting “death to the dictator.” This new generation has gone as far as to cross another red line and repeatedly declare, “I don’t want an Islamic Republic!” Fearless, women stand atop cars burning their headscarves while others cut their hair in public. There's no deadline on women's equality: Add the Equal Rights Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. They have done so because the Islamic Republic has spent the past four decades controlling the female body as a misplaced metaphor for nationalist and cultural pride. Controlling women’s bodies has gone on long enough. Generation Z, which the Pew Research Center defines as born from 1997 through 2012, has decided to act. Pivotally, today’s Gen Z protesters are more radical and angrier than their “reform”-minded predecessors. The 2009 Green Movement was largely composed of middle-class Tehranis, often educated in Europe, who had much to lose. Also, their parents and even the Green Movement politicians told them to be patient.
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The movement was about reform. One revolution was enough. Parents lectured their children on their errors, how much Iran lost (almost everything) because of 1979. They pointed to the country’s neighbors (in Iraq and Afghanistan) who were dying, saying Iranians shouldn’t join them. They then pointed out that the whole Middle East was on fire and burning (Arab Spring 2011-14) and that Iran should not burn, too. At least Iranians were safe, the adage went. The previous generation tried to make headway through advocating reforms, but many lost friends and family members.
More than a decade later, Gen Z thinks it has less to lose.
Gen Z demands change
Pushed to the brink by a repressive system that either made promises it didn’t keep or used tools of violence too often, Generation Z is fed up. There are no appeals to the administration, parts of the government or the police who beat them. Iranians are responding to police brutality in kind. They are retaliating by damaging police vehicles, chasing state agents and holding their ground when confronted. Opinion alerts: Get columns from your favorite columnists + expert analysis on top issues, delivered straight to your device through the USA TODAY app. Don't have the app? Download it for free from your app store.
And men have joined the women. They are seen protesting throughout the country (including conservative cities like Mashhad, Qom and Isfahan, not to mention the liberal north and the diverse west). The men come from all walks of life but especially from the poorer neighborhoods, like in southern Tehran.
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Neda Bolourchi  is associate director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Rutgers University. Neda Bolourchi is associate director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Rutgers University. Most of these men joined because of poverty, lack of prospects and denial of personal freedoms. Male allies speak about the oppression and discontent with what has become life in the Islamic Republic; they understand their privileged position vis-à-vis women, but this does not lessen their burdens or alleviate their poverty. Instead, they have an idea of the daily repression and subjugation women face. This protest and its slogan of “Women, Life, Freedom” thus connect women’s rights to broader social and economic policies about human rights and good governance. Today’s protest is of a feminist and humanist nature. It has crossed the socioeconomic divide and ethnoreligious lines, and has garnered large male support. Iranians are fighting for basic rights: the right to freedom of speech; the right to expression of thought; the right for women to choose how they dress; the right against wrongful imprisonment; the right against torture and rape while in state custody. Taking to the streets with their hair in ponytails and fists up, Iranians are singing the song of freedom and resistance that defines revolutions. Neda Bolourchi is associate director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Rutgers University, where she teaches courses on political violence, revolutions, Islamic law and human rights. Previously, she worked on matters of civil litigation, white collar criminal defense and human rights violations in the Middle East.
*This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Mahsa Amini: Iran's Gen Z protests morality police after woman's death

Iran Guards Commander Killed in Baluchistan Clashes
London, Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 01/October, 2022 -
A senior commander in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards was killed during clashes in the southeastern province of Baluchistan on Friday, an incident that further deepened the Iranian internal crisis in the third week of the outbreak of the “women’s uprising.”The regional governor told the state television that the violence in the city of Zahedan left 19 dead and 21 wounded. The official IRNA news agency confirmed the killing of the commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ intelligence service, Ali Mousavi, during a confrontations with militants. The governor accused “separatist groups” of being behind what he described as a “terrorist attack.”He said: “A number of rioters attacked a police station under the cover of Friday prayers.” “The separatist terrorists attacked several banks and looted a number of shops,” he added. The police in Baluchistan province said that unidentified gunmen attacked worshipers and a number of Revolutionary Guards forces. The Noor News website of the Supreme National Security Council reported that violent confrontations took place between armed men and the police forces. Tension in the city comes after calls in the southeastern province to hold a security official accountable for raping a girl.
Meanwhile, the Iranian “women’s uprising”, which erupted after the death of the Kurdish Mahsa Amini in police custody, entered its third week, amid the expansion of the deadly crackdown that left 83 people dead. The protests continued on Friday in the cities of Mashhad, Ahwaz, Sanandaj, Kerman, Zahedan and Kermanshah, after a tense night in the conservative city of Qom, in which the protesters chanted angry slogans calling for the overthrow of the ruling regime. The Iranian Ministry of Intelligence said in a statement: “Nine foreign nationals from Germany, Poland, Italy, France, the Netherlands and Sweden (...) were arrested in the places (of the demonstrations) for being involved in the riots.”The Oslo-based Iran Human Rights (IHRNGO) said at least 83 people were killed in the protests, while Amnesty International said on Friday that the crackdown on the protests has left at least 52 confirmed dead and hundreds injured. “The Iranian authorities have mobilized their well-honed machinery of repression to ruthlessly crack down on nationwide protests in an attempt to thwart any challenge to their power,” Amnesty said. “Without concerted collective action by the international community that goes beyond statements of condemnation, countless more people risk being killed, maimed, tortured, sexually assaulted and thrown behind bars,” it added.

Mahsa Amini Was Arrested For ‘Bad Hijab.’ But the Only ‘Bad Hijab’ Is a Forced One
Amani Al-Khatahtbeh/Elle/October 01/2022
Recently, unprecedented images have emerged from the streets of Iran: defiant-eyed women ceremoniously cutting their locks in public; headscarves burning on the streets amid plumes of smoke; oceans of nameless demonstrators shouting together in a unified chant—all protesting against forced hijab laws, now behind the veil of government-imposed Internet shutdowns. Almost 20 years ago, during the height of the War on Terror, a Muslim schoolgirl in France took a similar action and publicly shaved her head in front of an audience of protesters, international media, and press cameras, making global headlines in a pre-social media era. Except, she was protesting for her right to wear it.
This is no contradiction. Muslim women across the East and West have been fighting for the same thing for decades: the right to choose. Mahsa Amini, whose Kurdish first name is Jhina, sparked a national outcry when the 22-year-old died in police custody in Tehran on Sept. 16. Amini was arrested and beaten by Iran’s “morality police”—the government agency used to enforce mandatory hijab rules—for “bad hijab,” or what they deemed to be an inappropriate form of dress. While the “morality police” asserts itself as a spiritual authority, the reality is that it’s a government invention with no theological existence in Islam that manipulates religion to assert control over people. In Iran, the morality police use hijab as a tool to essentially diminish Iranian women from the public space, intimidating women across the country to stay home.
While commonly equated to the headscarf, hijab is the universal concept of modesty applied to both men and women’s Islamic lifestyle. While the headscarf is a physical practice of hijab, it is intended to apply to all facets of one’s life—from your attitude to your actions to even your way of thinking—with the purpose of promoting compassion and sanctifying personal autonomy. For example, the first requirement of physical hijab is the Hadith of Prophet Muhammad, peace be upon him, to “lower your gaze”—placing the onus on one’s personal actions first and foremost, rather than blaming or interfering with another person’s hijab. At its spiritual foundation, the core of hijab is personal choice: the only “good hijab” is one with intention; the only “bad hijab” is one that’s forced.
That’s why at the same time as Iranian women are fighting with their lives for their right to take their headscarves off, Indian women are fighting for their right to keep them on. This March, in the face of increasing Hindu nationalism and widespread anti-Muslim violence, an Indian court upheld a policy allowing schools in the state of Karnataka to ban the hijab, provoking attacks targeting Indian Muslim women and girls. In 2021, Muslim women launched the viral social media hashtag #HandsOffMyHijab after French officials voted to ban young Muslim women and girls from wearing the hijab in public.
The truth is that laws forcing Muslim women to wear headscarves or take them off represent two sides of the same coin: controlling Muslim women’s right to choose. Hijab laws have nothing to do with religion or secularism. At best, they are a form of state-sanctioned sexual harassment; at worst, they represent the systemic subjugation of Muslim women, no matter what society they exist in. Mahsa Amini and countless others have lost their lives over Iran’s hijab laws; countless more are risking their lives by hitting the streets and expressing themselves on social media. But their fight for freedom is not an exception. It’s time for us to have nuanced conversations around hijab and the way it has been used as a tool and a litmus test for how we view Muslim women. The worst thing that can happen is for the world to respond to Iranian women’s bravery by using it to oppress Muslim women elsewhere in the world under the guise of liberation. As the United States grapples with its own war over women’s bodies in the form of abortion rights, it’s clear that the desire to control women transcends religion, political ideology and even cultural spheres. Now, Iranian women are beating the drum, calling on women all over the world to claim a revolutionary truth: Our bodies are on our terms.

How Iranian Informants Were Failed by the CIA
Washington - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 01 October, 2022
The spy was minutes from leaving Iran when he was nabbed.
Gholamreza Hosseini was at Imam Khomeini Airport in Tehran in late 2010, preparing for a flight to Bangkok. There, the Iranian industrial engineer would meet his Central Intelligence Agency handlers. But before he could pay his exit tax to leave the country, the airport ATM machine rejected his card as invalid. Moments later, a security officer asked to see Hosseini’s passport before escorting him away. Hosseini said he was brought to an empty VIP lounge and told to sit on a couch that had been turned to face a wall. Left alone for a dizzying few moments and not seeing any security cameras, Hosseini thrust his hand into his trouser pocket, fishing out a memory card full of state secrets that could now get him hanged. He shoved the card into his mouth, chewed it to pieces and swallowed. Not long after, Ministry of Intelligence agents entered the room and the interrogation began, punctuated by beatings, Hosseini recounted. His denials and the destruction of the data were worthless; they seemed to know everything already. But how? “These are things I never told anyone in the world,” Hosseini told Reuters. As his mind raced, Hosseini even wondered whether the CIA itself had sold him out.
Rather than betrayal, Hosseini was the victim of CIA negligence, a year-long Reuters investigation into the agency’s handling of its informants found. A faulty CIA covert communications system made it easy for Iranian intelligence to identify and capture him. Jailed for nearly a decade and speaking out for the first time, Hosseini said he never heard from the agency again, even after he was released in 2019.
The CIA declined to comment on Hosseini’s account.
Hosseini’s experience of sloppy handling and abandonment was not unique. In interviews with six Iranian former CIA informants, Reuters found that the agency was careless in other ways amid its intense drive to gather intelligence in Iran, putting in peril those risking their lives to help the United States.
Such aggressive steps by the CIA sometimes put average Iranians in danger with little prospect of gaining critical intelligence. When these men were caught, the agency provided no assistance to the informants or their families, even years later, the six Iranians said. James Olson, former chief of CIA counterintelligence, said he was unaware of these specific cases. But he said any unnecessary compromise of sources by the agency would represent both a professional and ethical failure. “If we’re careless, if we’re reckless and we’ve been penetrated, then shame on us,” Olson said. “If people paid the price of trusting us enough to share information and they paid a penalty, then we have failed morally.” The men were jailed as part of an aggressive counterintelligence purge by Iran that began in 2009, a campaign partly enabled by a series of CIA blunders, according to news reports and three former US national security officials. Tehran has claimed in state media reports that its mole hunt ultimately netted dozens of CIA informants.
To tell this story, Reuters conducted dozens of hours of interviews with the six Iranians who were convicted of espionage by their government between 2009 and 2015. To vet their accounts, Reuters interviewed 10 former US intelligence officials with knowledge of Iran operations; reviewed Iranian government records and news reports; and interviewed people who knew the spies. None of the former or current US officials who spoke with Reuters confirmed or disclosed the identities of any CIA sources.
The CIA declined to comment specifically on Reuters’ findings or on the intelligence agency’s operations in Iran. A spokeswoman said the CIA does its utmost to safeguard people who work with the agency.
Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its Mission to the United Nations in New York did not respond to requests for comment.
Hosseini was the only one of the six men Reuters interviewed who said he was assigned the vulnerable messaging tool. But an analysis by two independent cybersecurity specialists found that the now-defunct covert online communication system that Hosseini used – located by Reuters in an internet archive – may have exposed at least 20 other Iranian spies and potentially hundreds of other informants operating in other countries around the world.
This messaging platform, which operated until 2013, was hidden within rudimentary news and hobby websites where spies could go to connect with the CIA. Reuters confirmed its existence with four former US officials.
The CIA considers Iran one of its most difficult targets. Ever since Iranian students seized the American embassy in Tehran in 1979, the United States has had no diplomatic presence in the country. CIA officers are instead forced to recruit potential agents outside Iran or through online connections. The thin local presence leaves US intelligence at a disadvantage amid events such as the protests now sweeping Iran over the death of a woman arrested for violating the country’s religious dress code.
The six Iranians served prison terms ranging from five to 10 years. Four of them, including Hosseini, stayed in Iran after their release and remain vulnerable to rearrest. Two fled the country and have become stateless refugees.
Hosseini’s leap to espionage came after he had climbed a steep path to a lucrative career. The son of a tailor, he grew up in Tehran and learned lathing and auto mechanics, he said, showing Reuters his trade-school diploma.
Along the way, teachers spotted Hosseini’s intelligence and pushed him to study industrial engineering at the prestigious Amirkabir University of Technology, he said. Hosseini said a professor there put him in touch with a former student with ties to the Iranian government who eventually became his business partner. Founded in 2001, their engineering company provided services to help businesses optimize energy consumption. The firm at first worked mainly with food and steel factories, Hosseini said, over time scoring contracts with Iran’s energy and defense industries. Hosseini’s account of his professional background is confirmed in corporate records, Iranian media accounts and interviews with six associates.
Hosseini said the company’s success made his family affluent, allowing him to buy a large house, drive imported cars and go on foreign vacations. But in the years after the election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who served from 2005 to 2013, his business teetered.
Under Ahmadinejad, a hardliner aligned with the country’s theocratic ruler, Iran’s security forces were encouraged to enter the industrial sector, increasing the military’s control over lucrative commercial projects. Established companies often found themselves relegated to the role of subcontractors for these newcomers, Iranian democracy activists said, shrinking their slice of the pie. Before long, Hosseini said, all of his new contracts had to be routed through some of these firms, forcing him to lay off workers as earnings tumbled.
“They didn’t know how to do the work, but they took the lion’s share of the profits,” said Hosseini, his voice rising as he recounted the events a decade later. “It was as if you were the head of the company, doing everything from 0 to 100, and seeing your salary being given to the most junior employees. I felt raped.” At the same time, US rhetoric was ramping up against Ahmadinejad. Washington viewed Iran’s president as a dangerous provocateur set on building nuclear weapons. Hosseini began to feel that his life was being destroyed by a corrupt system, and that the government was too erratic to be allowed to obtain nukes. His anger grew.
One day in 2007, he said he opened the CIA public website and clicked the link to contact the agency: “I’m an engineer who has worked at the nuclear site Natanz and I have information,” he wrote in Persian.
Located 200 miles south of Tehran, Natanz is a major facility for uranium enrichment. Archived web records from Hosseini’s engineering firm from 2007 say the company worked on civilian electrical power projects. Reuters could not independently confirm Hosseini’s work at Natanz.
A month later, to his surprise, Hosseini said he received an email back from the CIA.
Meeting with CIA agents, Hosseini said he explained that his company had several years earlier worked on contracts to optimize the flow of electricity at the Natanz site, a complex balancing act to keep centrifuges spinning at precisely the speed needed to enrich uranium.
Located in central Iran, Natanz was the heart of Tehran’s nuclear program, which the government said was to produce civilian electricity. But Washington saw Natanz as the core of Iran’s push to acquire nuclear weapons.
Hosseini said his firm was a subcontractor of Kalaye Electric, a company sanctioned in 2007 by the US government over its alleged role in Iran’s nuclear development program. He added that he was seeking additional contracts at other sensitive nuclear and military sites. Hosseini unfurled a maze-like map showing the electricity connected to the Natanz nuclear facility.
While several years old, Hosseini explained, the map’s notations of the amount of power flowing into the facility provided Washington a baseline to estimate the number of centrifuges currently active. That evidence, he believed, could be used to assess progress toward processing the highly enriched uranium needed for a nuclear weapon. Hosseini said he didn’t know it at the time, but Natanz was already in the crosshairs of US authorities. That same year, Washington and Israel launched a cyberweapon that would sabotage those very centrifuges, infecting them with a virus that would cripple uranium enrichment at Natanz for years to come, security analysts concluded. Reuters could not determine whether the information provided by Hosseini assisted in that cyber sabotage or other operations.
In subsequent meetings, Hosseini said, the CIA asked him to turn his attention to a broader US goal: identifying possible critical points in Iran’s national electric grid that would cause long and paralyzing blackouts if struck by a missile or saboteurs.
Hosseini said he continued to meet with the CIA in Thailand and Malaysia, in a total of seven meetings over three years. To show evidence of his travels, Hosseini provided photographs of entry stamps in his passport for all but his first two trips, for which he said he had used an older, now discarded, passport.
In August 2008, a year after becoming a spy, Hosseini said he met with an older, broad-shouldered CIA officer and others at a hotel in Dubai.
“We need to expand the commitment,” Hosseini recounted the officer saying. The officer handed Hosseini a piece of paper and asked him to write a promise that he would not provide the information he was sharing to another government, a CIA practice intended to deepen a feeling of commitment from an informant, two former CIA officials said.
Another CIA officer in the meeting then showed Hosseini a covert communications system he could use to reach his handlers: a rudimentary Persian-language football news website called Iraniangoals.com. Entering a password into the search bar caused a secret messaging window to pop up, allowing Hosseini to send information and receive instructions from the CIA.
When Hosseini lamented missing his daughter’s third birthday during one of the trips, he said a CIA officer bought him a teddy bear to give to the child. “I felt that I had joined the team,” Hosseini told Reuters.
What Hosseini didn’t know was that the world’s most powerful intelligence agency had given him a tool that likely led to his capture. In 2018, Yahoo News reported that a flawed web-based covert communications system had led to the arrest and execution of dozens of CIA informants in Iran and China.
Reuters located the secret CIA communications site identified by Hosseini, Iraniangoals.com, in an internet archive where it remains publicly available. Reuters then asked two independent cyber analysts – Bill Marczak of University of Toronto’s Citizen Lab, and Zach Edwards of Victory Medium – to probe how Iran may have used weaknesses in the CIA’s own technology to unmask Hosseini and other CIA informants.
The two are experts on privacy and cybersecurity, with experience analyzing electronic intelligence operations. The effort represents the first independent technical analysis of the intelligence failure.
Marczak and Edwards quickly discovered that the secret messaging window hidden inside Iraniangoals.com could be spotted by simply right-clicking on the page to bring up the website’s coding. This code contained descriptions of secret functions, including the words “message” and “compose” – easily found clues that a messaging capability had been built into the site. The coding for the search bar that triggered the secret messaging software was labeled “password.”
Far from being customized, high-end spycraft, Iraniangoals.com was one of hundreds of websites mass-produced by the CIA to give to its sources, the independent analysts concluded. These rudimentary sites were devoted to topics such as beauty, fitness and entertainment, among them a Star Wars fan page and another for the late American talk show host Johnny Carson.
Each fake website was assigned to only one spy in order to limit exposure of the entire network in case any single agent was captured, two former CIA officials told Reuters.
But the CIA made identifying those sites easy, the independent analysts said. Marczak located more than 350 websites containing the same secret messaging system, all of which have been offline for at least nine years and archived.

Protesters Rally across Iran in Third Week of Unrest over Amini’s Death
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 01/October, 2022
Protesters rallied across Iran on Saturday and strikes were reported throughout the country's Kurdish region, as demonstrations against the death of a woman in police custody entered their third week. The protests, sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old from Iranian Kurdistan, have spiraled into the biggest show of opposition to Iran's clerical authorities since 2019, with dozens of people killed in unrest across the country. People demonstrated in London and Paris and elsewhere on Saturday in solidarity with Iranian protesters, some holding pictures of Amini, who died three days after being arrested by the country's morality police for "unsuitable attire". In Iran, social media posts showed rallies in large cities including Tehran, Isfahan, Rasht and Shiraz. In Tehran's traditional business district of Bazaar, anti-government protesters chanted "We will be killed one by one if we don't unite", while elsewhere in the capital they blocked a main road with a fence torn from the central reservation, videos shared by the widely followed Tavsir1500 Twitter account showed. Students also demonstrated at numerous universities. At Tehran University, dozens were detained, Tavsir1500 said. The semi-official Fars news agency said some protesters were arrested in a square near the university.
Tavsir1500 also posted what it said was a video taken at the gates of Isfahan University during which shots could be heard. A separate video showed tear gas being fired at the university, dispersing a group of people. Reuters could not verify the social media reports. The protests began at Amini's funeral on Sept. 17 and spread to Iran's 31 provinces, with all layers of society, including ethnic and religious minorities, taking part and many demanding Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's downfall. Amnesty International has said a government crackdown on demonstrations has so far led to the death of at least 52 people, with hundreds injured. Rights groups say dozens of activists, students and artists have been detained. In London, about 2,500 people staged a noisy protest in Trafalgar Square, waving Iranian flags. Few women among the mostly Iranian crowd agreed to be interviewed on camera, fearful of identification and reprisals by the authorities. In central Paris, a crowd of several dozen people gathered to show support for Iranian protesters, holding Iranian flags and pictures of victims who have died in the protests.
Attack in Zahedan
Iranian authorities say many members of the security forces have been killed, accusing the United States of exploiting the unrest to try to destabilize Iran. State media has branded protesters as rioters and seditionists. The Revolutionary Guards said four members of its forces and the volunteer Basij militia were killed on Friday in attacks in Zahedan, capital of the southeastern Sistan-Baluchistan province. State television had said on Friday that 19 people, including members of the security forces, had been killed in Zahedan after unidentified armed individuals opened fire on a police station, prompting security forces to return fire. Guards Commander-in-Chief Hossein Salami vowed revenge, calling the dead "martyrs of Black Friday". A lawmaker from Zahedan said security had been restored to the city on Saturday, a semi-official news agency reported. Authorities blamed a separatist group from the Baluchi minority for starting the shootout in Zahedan. State media said two prominent militants linked to that group had been killed. IRNA posted a video showing destroyed cars, an overturned and burning trailer or bus, and fires in burnt-out buildings and shops, describing it as footage of "what the terrorists did to people's shops last night in Zahedan".Reuters could not verify the footage. Protests have been particularly intense in Iran's Kurdistan region, where authorities have previously put down unrest by the Kurdish minority numbering up to 10 million. Fearing an ethnic uprising, and in a show of power, Iran fired missiles and flew drones to attack targets in neighboring northern Iraq's Kurdish region this week after accusing Iranian Kurdish dissidents of being involved in the unrest. Shops and businesses were on strike in 20 northwestern cities and towns on Saturday in protest against attacks on Iraq-based armed Kurdish opposition parties by Iran's Revolutionary Guards, the Kurdish rights group Hengaw reported. It also said security forces had fired at protesters in Dehgolan and Saqez, Amini's hometown. A video posted by Hengaw showed men speeding on motor-bikes through a street with shuttered shops, describing them as "repressive forces on the streets of Saqez".

Russia vetoes UN resolution calling its referendums illegal
Associated Press/Saturday, 01/October, 2022
Russia vetoed a U.N. resolution Friday that would have condemned its referendums in four Ukrainian regions as illegal, declared them invalid and urged all countries not to recognize any annexation of the territory claimed by Moscow. The vote in the 15-member Security Council was 10-1 with China, India, Brazil and Gabon abstaining. The resolution would also have demanded an immediate halt to Russia's "full-scale unlawful invasion of Ukraine" and the immediate and unconditional withdrawal of all its military forces from Ukraine. U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said before the vote that in the event of a Russian veto, the U.S. and Albania who sponsored the resolution will take it to the 193-member General Assembly where there are no vetoes, "and show that the world is still on the side of sovereignty and protecting territorial integrity."That is likely to happen next week. Britain's U.N. ambassador, Barbara Woodward, echoed Secretary-General Antonio Guterres' statement that Russia's actions violate the U.N. Charter and must be condemned. "The area Russia is claiming to annex is more than 90,000 square kilometers," she said. "This is the largest forcible annexation of territory since the Second World War. There is no middle ground on this."The council vote came hours after a lavish Kremlin ceremony where President Vladimir Putin signed treaties to annex the Russian-occupied Ukrainian regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, saying they were now part of Russia and would be defended by Moscow. Thomas-Greenfield said the results of the "sham" referendums on whether the regions wanted to join Russia were "pre-determined in Moscow, and everybody knows it." "They were held behind the barrel of Russian guns," she said.
Adding that "the sacred principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity" at the heart of the U.N. Charter must be defended, she said, "All of us understand the implications for our own borders, our own economies, and our own countries if these principles are tossed aside.""Putin miscalculated the resolve of the Ukrainians," Thomas-Greenfield said. "The Ukrainian people have demonstrated loud and clear: They will never accept being subjugated to Russian rule." Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia defended the referendums, claiming that more than 100 international observers from Italy, Germany, Venezuela and Latvia who observed the voting recognized the outcomes as legitimate. "The results of the referendums speak for themselves. The residents of these regions do not want to return to Ukraine. They have made a an informed and free choice in favor of our country," he said. Nebenzia added: "There will be no turning back as today's draft resolution would try to impose."He accused Western nations on the council of "openly hostile actions," saying they reached "a new low" by putting forward a resolution condemning a council member and forcing a Russian veto so they can "wax lyrical."
Under a resolution adopted earlier this year, Russia must defend its veto before the General Assembly in the coming weeks. Chinese Ambassador Zhang Jun said that "the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be safeguarded." But China abstained, he said, because it believes the Security Council should be using trying to calm the crisis "rather than intensifying conflicts and exacerbating confrontation."Brazil's ambassador, Ronaldo Costa Filho, said the referendums "cannot be perceived as legitimate" and his country stands by the principle of territorial integrity of sovereign states. But it abstained because the resolution didn't contribute to de-escalating tensions and finding "a solution for the conflict in Ukraine," he said.

Putin Celebrates Annexation: People in the 4 Regions Are Becoming Our Citizens Forever
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 01/October, 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday cast his move to absorb four Ukrainian regions as part of an existential battle for Russia's very survival against an aggressive West, a blustery show of his readiness to further up the ante in the conflict in Ukraine that has now entered its eighth month. The fiery speech that Putin delivered before signing the treaties for the Ukrainian regions' absorption into Russia marked some of his harshest criticism of the West to date. He accused the US and its allies of trying to bring Russia down on its knees and enslave its people, and he vowed to use “all means available” to fend off attacks — a clear reference to the country's nuclear arsenals. “They want to see us as a colony," Putin said. "They don’t want equal cooperation, they want to rob us. They want to see us not as a free society, but a crowd of soulless slaves.”Putin's televised speech took place at the opulent white-and-gold St. George’s Hall in the Grand Kremlin Palace and was frequently interrupted by applause from an obsequious audience of top officials and lawmakers. After signing the accession treaties with the Moscow-backed leaders of the four regions, Putin linked hands with them in a show of unity. In a sweeping attack on the US and its Western allies, Putin castigated their history of colonial gains, slavery, the destruction of indigenous people and cultures and other actions that he described as “running contrary to human nature, truth, freedom and justice.”Putin denounced the US for carpet bombings during the Korean and Vietnam wars. He particularly noted that the US has been the only country to use nuclear weapons, dropping them on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in the closing days of World War II. “They created a precedent, by the way,” Putin said in what some analysts saw as a veiled reference to his declared readiness to use “all means” to deter Ukraine from pressing on with its counteroffensive. “The West has continued looking for a way to strike us, weaken and break up Russia,” Putin declared. “They simply can't accept the existence of such a big, great country with all its territory, natural riches, mineral resources and the people who can't and won't follow someone else's bidding.”
In a blunt statement, Putin also accused the “Anglo Saxons” — a term Russian officials use to refer to the US and Britain — of sabotaging the Russia-built Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea to Germany. He didn't name a specific country and didn't offer any proof to back up his allegations. US President Joe Biden's administration on Friday rejected Putin’s pipeline claim as “disinformation” designed to distract from his annexation of parts of Ukraine. Putin described the US push for a rules-based world order as a hypocritical attempt to cover up the “US diktat based on crude force.”“We hear them say that the West upholds the rules-based order, but where do these rules come from?” Putin said. “Those are ravings and plain cheating, double or triple standards intended for fools. Russia is a great country with a 1,000-year history, an entire civilization and it won't live according to those forged, fake rules."He charged that the US troop presence in Germany, Japan and South Korea effectively amounts to their “occupation” and reminded the audience the US had eavesdropped on their leaders, saying it was a “shame not only for those who did it but also for those who slavishly swallowed that.”
The Russian president cast Western efforts to contain Russia as racist and discriminatory, charging that “the Russophobia articulated today across the entire world is nothing but racism.”“Russia realizes its responsibility before the global community and will do everything to bring those hot heads to their senses,” Putin said. “It’s obvious that the current neo-colonial model is doomed.” He described the showdown with the West over Ukraine as a “battlefield where our destiny and history have called us” to fight for the “great historic Russia, for future generations, for our children and grandchildren.” The Russian leader described his move to absorb the four Ukrainian regions as the restoration of historic justice, showing his contempt and disdain for Ukrainian statehood. Putin claimed that “referendums” this week in the four regions in Ukraine — which the West says are completely illegitimate and took place under Russian occupation — reflected an “inalienable right of the people based on historic unity, the sake for which generations of our ancestors have won their victories.”“Our common destiny and our 1,000-year history are behind the choice that millions of people have made,” he said. He called on Ukraine to halt its counteroffensive — which has recaptured some territory in the northeast — and sit down for talks, but bluntly warned that the accession of the four regions into Russia is non-negotiable. That tough stance leaves no prospects for peace negotiations. “People in the four regions are becoming our citizens forever," Putin said, vowing that “Russia will not betray them.”

Russia Withdraws Troops after Ukraine Encircles Key City
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 01 October, 2022
After being encircled by Ukrainian forces, Russia pulled troops out Saturday from an eastern Ukrainian city that it had been using as a front-line hub. It was the latest victory for the Ukrainian counteroffensive that has humiliated and angered the Kremlin.
Russia’s withdrawal from Lyman complicates its internationally vilified declaration just a day earlier that it had annexed four regions of Ukraine — an area that includes Lyman. Taking the city paves the way for Ukrainian troops to potentially push further into land that Moscow now claims as its own.
The fighting comes at a pivotal moment in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war. Facing Ukrainian gains on the battlefield — which he frames as a US-orchestrated effort to destroy Russia — Putin this week heightened threats of nuclear force and used his most aggressive, anti-Western rhetoric to date.
Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed to have inflicted damage on Ukrainian forces in battling to hold Lyman, but said outnumbered Russian troops were withdrawn to more favorable positions. Kyiv's air force said it moved into Lyman, and the Ukrainian president’s chief of staff posted photos of a Ukrainian flag being hoisted on the town's outskirts.Lyman had been an important link in the Russian front line for both ground communications and logistics. Located 160 kilometers (100 miles) southeast of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, it is in the Donetsk region near the border with Luhansk region, both of which Russia annexed Friday after a local "referendum" was held at gunpoint.
Ukrainian forces have retaken vast swaths of territory in a counteroffensive that started in September. They have pushed Russian forces out of the Kharkiv area and moved east across the Oskil River. Moscow’s withdrawal from Lyman prompted immediate criticism from some Russian officials.
The leader of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, blamed the retreat, without evidence, on one general being "covered up for by higher-up leaders in the General Staff." He called for "more drastic measures." Meanwhile, on the Russian-annexed Crimean Peninsula, the governor of the city of Sevastopol announced an emergency situation at an airfield there. Explosions and huge billows of smoke could be seen from a distance by beachgoers in the Russian-held resort. Authorities said a plane rolled off the runway at the Belbek airfield and ammunition that was reportedly on board caught fire.
Russia annexed the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 in violation of international law.Russian bombardments have intensified in recent days as Moscow moved swiftly with its latest annexation and ordered a mass mobilization at home to bolster its forces. The Russian call-up has proven unpopular at home, prompting tens of thousands of Russian men to flee the country.
Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and his military have vowed to keep fighting to liberate the regions Putin claimed to have annexed Friday, and other Russian-occupied areas. Ukrainian authorities accused Russian forces of targeting two humanitarian convoys in recent days, killing dozens of civilians. The governor of the Kharkiv region, Oleh Syniehubov, said 24 civilians were killed in an attack this week on a convoy trying to flee the Kupiansk district. He called it "cruelty that can’t be justified." He said 13 children and a pregnant woman were among the dead.
"The Russians fired at civilians almost at point-blank range," Syniehubov wrote on Telegram. The Security Service of Ukraine, the secret police force known by the acronym SBU, posted photographs of the attacked convoy. At least one truck appeared to have been blown up, with burned corpses in what remained of its truck bed. Another vehicle at the front of the convoy also had been ablaze. Bodies lay on the side of the road or still inside vehicles, which appeared pockmarked with bullet holes.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said its rockets destroyed Ukrainian military targets in the area but has not commented on accusations that it targeted fleeing civilians. Russian troops have retreated from much of the Kharkiv region but they have continued to shell the area. And a Russian strike in the Zaporizhzhia region’s capital killed 30 people and wounded 88, Ukrainian officials said. The British Defense Ministry said the Russians "almost certainly" struck a humanitarian convoy there with S-300 anti-aircraft missiles. Russian-installed officials in Zaporizhzhia blamed Ukrainian forces, but gave no evidence.
In other developments, in an apparent attempt to secure Moscow’s hold on the newly annexed territory, Russian forces seized the director-general of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Ihor Murashov, on Friday, according to the Ukrainian state nuclear company Energoatom. Energoatom said Russian troops stopped Murashov’s car, blindfolded him and took him to an undisclosed location. Russia did not publicly comment on the report. The International Atomic Energy Agency said Russia told it that "the director-general of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was temporarily detained to answer questions."
The Vienna-based IAEA said it "has been actively seeking clarifications and hopes for a prompt and satisfactory resolution of this matter."The power plant repeatedly has been caught in the crossfire of the war. Ukrainian technicians continued running it after Russian troops seized the power station, and its last reactor was shut down in September as a precautionary measure amid ongoing shelling nearby. In other fighting reported Saturday, four people were killed by Russian shelling Friday in the Donetsk region, governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said. The Russian army struck the southern Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv twice overnight, once with drones and the second time with missiles, according to regional Gov. Vitaliy Kim. After Friday's land grab, Russia now claims sovereignty over 15% of Ukraine, in what NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg called "the largest attempted annexation of European territory by force since the Second World War."Zelenskyy on Friday formally applied for NATO membership, upping the pressure on Western allies to defend Ukraine. In Washington, President Joe Biden signed a bill Friday that provides another infusion — more than $12.3 billion — in military and economic aid linked to the war Ukraine.

Russia abandons key bastion, Putin ally suggests a nuclear response
Tom Balmforth and Pavel Polityuk/KYIV (Reuters)/October 01/2022.
-Russia said on Saturday its troops had abandoned the key bastion of Lyman in occupied eastern Ukraine, a stinging defeat that prompted a close ally of President Vladimir Putin to call for the possible use of low-grade nuclear weapons. The announcement came just a day after Putin proclaimed the annexation of four Ukrainian regions - including Donetsk, where the city of Lyman is located - and placed them under Russia's nuclear umbrella, at a ceremony that was condemned by Kyiv and the West as an illegitimate farce. "In connection with the creation of a threat of encirclement, allied troops were withdrawn from the settlement of Krasny Liman to more advantageous lines," Russia's defence ministry said, using the Russian name of the town. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy later said in a video address that although the Ukrainian flag was flying in the city, "fighting is still going on there".
He also indicated Ukrainian troops had taken the village of Torske, on the main road out of Lyman to the east. The Russian statement ended hours of official silence after Ukraine first said it had surrounded thousands of Russian troops in the area and then that its forces were inside the city. Ukraine's defence ministry wrote on Twitter that "almost all" the Russian troops in Lyman had either been captured or killed. Russia has used Lyman as a logistics and transport hub for its operations in the north of the Donetsk region. Its capture would be Ukraine's biggest battlefield gain since a lightning counteroffensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region last month. Zelenskiy said that in the days to come, Ukrainian forces would liberate more towns. The recent Ukrainian successes have infuriated Putin allies such as Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Russia's southern Chechnya region, who said he felt compelled to speak out. "In my personal opinion, more drastic measures should be taken, right up to the declaration of martial law in the border areas and the use of low-yield nuclear weapons," Kadyrov wrote on Telegram before Zelenskiy spoke. Other top Putin allies, including former president Dmitry Medvedev, have suggested Russia may need to resort to nuclear weapons, but Kadyrov's call was the most urgent and explicit. Putin said last week that he was not bluffing when he said he was prepared to defend Russia's "territorial integrity" with all available means, and on Friday made clear this extended to the new regions claimed by Moscow. Washington says it would respond decisively to any use of nuclear weapons and has spelled out to Moscow the "catastrophic consequences" it would face.
'ALREADY IN LYMAN'
The Russian defence ministry's statement made no mention of its troops being encircled at Lyman. "The Russian grouping in the area of Lyman is surrounded," Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesperson for Ukraine's eastern forces, said hours earlier. He said Russia had 5,000 to 5,500 troops at Lyman but the number encircled could be lower. He later confirmed Ukrainian troops were inside the town. Two Ukrainian soldiers taped the yellow-and-blue national flag to the "Lyman" welcome sign at an entrance to the city, a video posted by the president's chief of staff showed. "Oct. 1. We're unfurling our state flag and establishing it on our land. Lyman will be Ukraine," one of the soldiers said. Neither side's battlefield assertions could be independently verified.
LOGISTICS HUB
Kadyrov said Colonel-General Alexander Lapin, the commander overseeing Lyman, was a "mediocrity" who should be stripped of his medals and sent to the front line. Kadyrov said he had warned army chief General Valery Gerasimov of a looming disaster.
"The general assured me he had no doubts about Lapin's talent for leadership and did not think a retreat was possible," he said. Ukraine says its capture would allow Kyiv to advance into the Luhansk region, whose full capture Moscow announced in early July after weeks of grinding advances. "Lyman is important because it is the next step towards the liberation of the Ukrainian Donbas. It is an opportunity to go further to Kreminna and Sievierodonetsk, and it is psychologically very important," Cherevatyi said. Donetsk and Luhansk regions make up the wider Donbas region that has been a major focus for Russia since soon after the start of Moscow's invasion on Feb. 24 in what it called a "special military operation" to demilitarise its neighbour. Putin proclaimed the Donbas regions of Donetsk and Luhansk and the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia to be Russian land on Friday - a swathe of territory equal to about 18% of Ukraine's total surface land area. Ukraine and its Western allies branded Russia's move as illegal. Kyiv vowed to continue liberating its land of Russian forces and said it would not hold peace talks with Moscow while Putin remained president. Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to Zelenskiy, mocked the Kremlin ceremony on Friday announcing the annexation. "Now Russian troops are leaving another strategic city and propagandists are looking for culprits. Reality can hurt if you live in fantasy world," Podolyak wrote on Twitter. Retired U.S. General Ben Hodges said a Russian defeat in Lyman would be a further blow to the morale of Moscow's troops and a major political and military embarrassment for Putin. "This puts in bright lights that his claim is illegitimate and cannot be enforced," he said. (Additional reporting by Jonathan Landay, Felix Light, Mark Trevelyan and David Ljunggren; Writing by Tom Balmforth; Editing by Mark Trevelyan and Daniel Wallis)

Chechen leader Kadyrov: Russia should use low-yield nuclear weapon after new defeat in Ukraine
Felix Light/LONDON (Reuters)/October 01/2022.
Ramzan Kadyrov, head of Russia's region of Chechnya, said on Saturday that Moscow should consider using a low-yield nuclear weapon in Ukraine after a major new defeat on the battlefield. As Russia confirmed the loss of its stronghold of Lyman in eastern Ukraine, Kadyrov slammed top commanders for their failings and wrote on Telegram: "In my personal opinion, more drastic measures should be taken, right up to the declaration of martial law in the border areas and the use of low-yield nuclear weapons". He was speaking a day after President Vladimir Putin proclaimed the annexation of four Ukrainian regions - including Donetsk, where Lyman is located - and placed them under Russia's nuclear umbrella, saying Moscow would defend the lands it had seized "with all our strength and all our means". Russia has the world's largest atomic arsenal, including low-yield tactical nuclear weapons that are designed to be deployed against opposing armies. Other top Putin allies, including former president Dmitry Medvedev, have suggested that Russia may need to resort to nuclear weapons, but Kadyrov's call was the most urgent and explicit. The influential ruler of the Caucasus region of Chechnya has been a vocal champion of the war in Ukraine, with Chechen forces forming part of the vanguard of the Russian army there. Kadyrov is widely believed to be personally close to Putin, who appointed him to govern restive Chechnya in 2007. In his message, Kadyrov described Colonel-General Alexander Lapin, commander of the Russian forces fighting at Lyman, as a "mediocrity", and suggested that he should be demoted to private and stripped of his medals. "Due to a lack of elementary military logistics, today we have abandoned several settlements and a large piece of territory," he said.Kadyrov said that two weeks before he had raised the possibility of a defeat at Lyman with Valery Gerasimov, chief of Russia's general staff, but that Gerasimov had dismissed the idea. Russia's Defence Ministry on Saturday announced a withdrawal from Lyman, a major stronghold and logistical hub for Russian forces in Ukraine's Donetsk region saying that a Ukrainian advance had threatened its units with encirclement. It was the latest in a series of battlefield humiliations for Russia, after its forces were routed from Kharkiv region by a lightning Ukrainian counteroffensive last month. After Russia's defeat in Kharkiv, Kadyrov said he would be "forced to go to the country's leadership to explain to them the situation on the ground" unless urgent changes were made in the conduct of the war. Putin said last week he was not bluffing when he said he was prepared to defend Russia's "territorial integrity" with all available means. Washington says it would respond decisively to any use of nuclear weapons and has spelled out to Moscow the "catastrophic consequences" it would face.
(Editing by Mark Trevelyan)

Kuwait Govt Sets Date for First Session of New National Assembly
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 01 October, 2022
The Kuwaiti government held an extraordinary session on Saturday to set the date for the first meeting of the newly-elected National Assembly.The parliament will meet for the first time on October 11. The government then submitted its resignation following the announcement of this week’s elections results.
The results were announced on Friday, introducing a 54 percent change in the legislature. Only 12 lawmakers were reelected to their posts in the 50-member legisalture. Opposition lawmakers made gains, while pro-government MPs were dealt shocking defeats. Deputies representing the Islamic Constitutional Movement - Hadas (Muslim Brotherhood) won seats. The victors included: Osama Issa Al-Shaheen (first constituency), Hamad Muhammad Al-Matar (second district), and Abdulaziz Al-Saqabi (third constituency). The Salafist movement achieved a remarkable win with the return of MP Muhammad Hayef to the National Assembly after his loss in the previous elections. Adel Al-Damkhi, Fahd Al-Masoud and Hamad Al-Obeid also won seats. The entire Bloc of Five, consisting of Hassan Gohar, Abdullah Al-Mudhaf, Badr Al-Mulla, Muhalhal Al-Mudhaf, and Muhannad Al-Sayer, also won with a high number of votes in their constituencies.About nine Shiite deputies, distributed in various electoral districts and political blocs, won seats, including two independents, Osama Al-Zayd and Jenan Boushehri. Former National Assembly Speaker Ahmed Al-Saadoun claimed a landslide victory, receiving more than 12,200 votes in the third constituency - the highest in the country.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 01-02/2022
A Domestic Audience for Turkish Foreign Policy
Batu Coşkun, Gökhan Çınkara//The Washington Institute/October 01/2022
With elections in the balance, Erdoğan is playing a risky game of international normalizations in the hope that the Turkish electorate will approve of economic ties and immigrant solutions. In Turkey, the line between domestic politics and foreign policy has become so thin that it is almost indistinguishable. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s meshing of the local and international spheres has become the cornerstone of his re-election campaign. Built on the premise that improving Turkey’s tumultuous foreign policy will yield financial benefits for an ailing economy, foreign policy has been given the full force of executive directive.
As a result, a largely successful series of normalizations with former rivals–namely, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Israel—has been executed. Nevertheless, Turkey’s opposition remains skeptical of these moves. And with polling data pointing to an increased likelihood for a government change in Turkey, the future of these normalization efforts remains unclear. While Erdoğan continues to peddle his fine-tuned version of foreign policy—tailored to meet the demands of a disenfranchised electorate—these new engagements are yet to be set in stone.
Benefits of Normalization
With varying degrees of success, Ankara has sought to reap the economic benefits of diplomatic normalization. Emirati investment into Turkey has already materialized as the two countries continue to move toward reconciliation, and an already robust economic relationship now benefits from strong leadership on both ends. The UAE recently purchased Turkey’s famed TB2 drones, in a deal which will likely see Ankara supplying Abu Dhabi for several years. In a similar vein, Erdoğan hopes for a significant transfer of sums into the Turkish economy from cash-rich Saudi Arabia, likely in the form of a currency swap agreement or a significant acquisition of Turkish assets. The Kingdom, just like the UAE, appears interested in Turkey’s burgeoning defense sector. In fact, Turkey’s military industrial complex has become the crux of Erdoğan’s policy of triangulating between the domestic and international realms, utilizing the defense industry’s prowess as a tool to hasten otherwise slow bilateral normalization processes. The prospect of tapping into Turkey’s homegrown defense industry has motivated Gulf capitals to mend ties with Turkey, leading to the current state of relations. Israel and Turkey have also successfully undergone a restructuring of their relations, culminating in an announcement last month that both parties have agreed to appoint ambassadors. Of course, the domestic benefits of normalizing ties with Israel are somewhat less apparent than that of ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Turkish citizens en masse continue to resonate with the Palestinian cause, and there is little likelihood of hard currency transfers from Israel into Turkey. Nevertheless, the silver lining for Turkey has been much anticipated energy cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean, with a possible gas pipeline agreement that would see Israeli gas transported into European markets via Turkey. And while there has yet to be any announcements on such a prospect, the promise, itself, has already left financial spectators buoyant.  There are also more nuanced benefits for Ankara in normalizing with the Israelis. Erdoğan can and will likely try to push through to Washington via his new relationship with Israel. The lack of executive contact between Ankara and Washington and the Biden administration’s overall distance from Erdoğan has left Turkey with a number of unresolved policy priorities. Currently, the most significant of these is the issue of modernizing Turkey’s F-16 fleet, which is lagging due to constraints set by Congress.
A Turkish-Israeli détente significantly improves Erdoğan optics in Washington. and could result in some of his ambitions being achieved. In previous years, Israel advocacy groups in DC worked on Turkey’s behalf—Erdoğan hopes that a similar understanding can be reached now. An expedited sale of new F-16 fighters is an argument that few would be able to oppose back home, handing Erdoğan a victory that could easily be weaved into his domestic agenda. Moreover, given current tensions between Greece and Turkey, the F-16 matter would significantly improve Erdoğan’s hand.
The Opposition’s Foreign Policy
The opposition to Erdoğan in Turkey is grouped around an ambivalent “table of six”—a consort of politicians who, despite their difference in ideologies, have united to oust the incumbent president. Given their inherent heterogeneity, the foreign policy priorities of this group are difficult to ascertain. Indeed, amongst their ranks is former prime minister and former Erdoğan confidante Ahmet Davutoğlu, who is credited for shepherding Turkey’s proactive foreign policy, particularly during the inception of the Arab Spring. Davutloğlu ascribed to the executive agenda many of the foreign policy decisions that Erdoğan is seeking to reverse, such as Turkey’s former anti-Assad policy and years of tensions with the UAE and Saudi Arabia. On the other side of the consort is the nationalist “Good,” or IYI, party, poised to make major gains in elections next year. IYI has remained reserved on foreign policy issues and has instead voiced a position of skepticism on both Russian and Chinese expansionism. The party largely conforms to a pro-NATO position. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, chairman of the Republican People’s Party (CHP)—the largest party in the alliance—has expressed sharp views on Erdoğan’s foreign policy direction. Kılıçdaroğlu, who himself is also poised to become a presidential candidate, has openly opposed Turkey’s bilateral normalizations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE and has vowed to revisit the issue of normalizing with Israel. Coinciding with the chairman’s skepticism of the ongoing normalization processes is his ominous pledge to work with “regional countries” in the form of a “Middle East Cooperation Organization.” As part of this model, Kılıçdaroğlu has vowed to enhance ties with Syria, Lebanon, and Iran to achieve a sense of regional coherence. At a time when Turkey’s ties with the Gulf capitals and Israel are improving, the cohort’s discourse runs counter to these very processes. Clearly, the opposition is tailoring their foreign policy to electoral calculations just as much as Erdoğan is. Kılıçdaroğlu believes that he can galvanize skepticism on the Gulf monarchies and Israel, compound them with overall anti-United States rhetoric, and thus construct a narrative that is antithetical to Erdoğan’s.
The Question of Assad
Most recently, the president has turned towards mending ties with a far more elaborate foe, the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. This process yet again entails electoral calculations. However, this on a far more elaborate scale. Erdoğan calculates that by striking an accord with Assad, he can initiate a process in which some of the four million Syrians living in Turkey return to Syria. Erdoğan is shifting in this direction as his traditional bases of support now demand that migrants leave the country, leaving Erdoğan and his party scrambling for a solution. Economic distress and the societal discontent caused by the increasingly visible presence of migrants are the two main parameters shaping the electoral discourse in Turkey. Erdoğan believes that novel methods in foreign policy can address each of these issues, hence his drive to unilaterally resolve long-standing disputes with a foe like Assad. Nevertheless, engaging with Assad has been difficult, as Ankara and Damascus share no formal diplomatic relations. After Turkey’s foreign minister revealed that he had met his Syrian counterpart in Belgrade last year, Turkish officials have persistently declared that higher level contacts can and should materialize. Erdoğan, himself, revealed that he had hoped to meet Assad in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit earlier this month. The president likely believes that he can seal an agreement once leader-to-leader contact is established. This changing reality has only been underlined by recently unearthed meetings between Turkey’s intelligence chief and his Syrian counterpart in Moscow—meetings in which a list of initial demands is alleged to have been exchanged between the parties. Indeed, Russia appears to be playing a key broker role in the process, triangulating between Ankara and Damascus with the though that a reconciliation between the two would serve the Kremlin’s interests. As the domestic and international spheres of policy-making become increasingly entangled in Turkey, the viability of some of Turkey’s new foreign policy endeavors are increasingly doubtful. Despite the risks he has taken, current polling suggests that Erdoğan’s diplomatic endeavors have had little to no impact on electoral projections. The Turkish electorate is either disinterested in the process or is dissuaded by the prospects it entails, as a rehabilitation of the economy has yet to materialize. Given the situation, Erdoğan will now make a final play with Assad, hoping that the return of migrants will make meaningful impacts in the polls if an accord can be made before summer. Regardless of whether Erdoğan’s strategy will work to ensure him another electoral victory, the politicization of foreign policy makes for a risky game of myriad uncertainties

Detention Facilities in Syria, Iraq Remain Vulnerable to Islamic State Attacks
Devorah Margolin/The Washington Institute/October 01/2022
An attempted suicide operation against al-Hawl camp highlights the ongoing risks posed by indefinite detention of foreigners associated with IS.
On September 20, an Islamic State (IS) cell attempted a suicide attack targeting al-Hawl displaced persons camp in northeast Syria. Despite its territorial losses, IS continues to harbor grand ambitions for returning to power across Syria and Iraq. Part of this goal entails repeatedly exhorting members and affiliates to attack prisons and camps across the region in order to free men, women, and children associated with the group. These detainees are viewed as vital to spreading IS ideology, improving its operational success, and facilitating its future resurgence.
Current Status of Detention Facilities
With a resident population of nearly 55,000 people, al-Hawl lies at the center of debates regarding the indefinite detention policy that has been applied to such facilities by default. Specifically, these discussions have emphasized the role of women and minors associated with IS—the majority of the camp’s adult residents are women, and the U.S. government estimates that nearly half of all individuals held there are under twelve years old.
Regarding place of origin, Iraqi women and children make up the largest group of foreigners held in the camp, estimated at 25,000. Al-Hawl also holds around 2,000 women and 8,000 minors from fifty-seven other countries. The remaining detainees hail from Syria.
Other camps and prisons across Syria and Iraq hold an estimated 10,000 foreigners. Including al-Hawl, this means around 43,000 foreigners affiliated with IS remain in these facilities, hailing from almost sixty countries including Iraq. The majority of these individuals are women and minors.
Security Threats and Responses
In early 2022, IS operatives attacked Ghweiran prison in northeast Syria to free individuals affiliated with the group. As State Department counterterrorism official Ian Moss noted in July, “The attack made clear that we cannot artificially separate our concern about the displacement and detention issues from the broader political context in northeast Syria for the simple fact that the more financial resources and room to operate [IS] enjoys, the more complex and/or frequent their efforts to free detainees and recruit in displaced persons camps will be.” Video evidence taken during the attack showed that foreign male minors were being held in areas of the prison alongside adult men, increasing the opportunities for recruitment, indoctrination, and exploitation.
The group’s ability to operate in detention facilities is best illustrated by the situation in al-Hawl. The camp has become a hotbed of IS activity, with the group running religious courts, policing women and children, and spreading its ideology to the next generation. Criminal activity is rampant as well, with the World Health Organization counting 85 deaths in al-Hawl last year due to crime alone.
To tackle these problems, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) carried out a two-week security operation in March 2021, arresting 125 IS-affiliated individuals. Yet while this effort caused an immediate downturn in IS activity at the camp, the group has since been able to regain a foothold there. According to the SDF, IS members and affiliates have killed forty-four residents and humanitarian workers this year alone, including fourteen women and two children.
Over the past month, the SDF sought to quell this resurgence by carrying out “Operation Humanity and Security” with U.S. support. On September 18, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) released a statement commending its “SDF partners” for completing the twenty-four-day security mission. Beginning August 25 and concluding September 17, units involved in the operation broke up many of the camp’s IS networks, arrested approximately 300 individuals associated with the group (including 36 women), and confiscated weapons and explosives. They also freed six women (including two Yazidis) who had been held and tortured by IS affiliates. When debriefed about the mission, SDF personnel emphasized the prominent role that women played in both maintaining the IS networks and disrupting the operation as it took place.
Latest Attacks on al-Hawl
IS likely viewed the SDF-led operation as a direct threat to its base of support—one that demanded a response. Because gender dynamics play a paramount role in the group’s motivational rhetoric, such an operation would be seen as targeting IS women and children, necessitating retaliation from male fighters who feel compelled to be seen as protecting them.
Unsurprisingly, IS attempted to attack al-Hawl just days after the SDF-led mission concluded. On September 20, seven IS operatives sought to rig two vehicles with explosives, but one of the vehicles prematurely exploded about ten kilometers outside the presumed target, al-Hawl. When SDF personnel arrived on the scene, two attackers exited the second vehicle wearing suicide vests; one detonated himself, while the other was killed before he could do so. According to CENTCOM, the second vehicle was rigged with at least fifty kilograms of explosives. In total, four IS personnel were killed and one arrested, with no SDF injuries or casualties reported.
Four days later, IS claimed responsibility for the suicide operation via one of its Telegram channels. Contrary to SDF statements, the group contended that the attack had resulted in thirteen deaths or injuries. It also described the incident as part of its “ongoing revenge for imprisoned women” at al-Hawl, in line with previous rhetoric casting the release of detainees as central to the group’s sense of grievance and its strategy in Syria and Iraq.
U.S. Policy Implications
Across multiple administrations, the U.S. government has been vocal in calling for the repatriation of IS-affiliated persons to their countries of origin. The United States itself had repatriated thirty-nine individuals as of July. France acknowledged the seriousness of the current situation this summer when it repatriated fifty-one women and minors, the largest such action since 2019. Overall, however, Paris and other European partners have been hesitant to repatriate their citizens, and convincing them to accelerate the process is still very much an ongoing challenge.
European reluctance is only part of the problem—the vast majority of individuals remaining in al-Hawl are Syrians and Iraqis. While the Syrian question remains unanswered amid the country’s political limbo, the Iraqi government has actively sought to bring back its citizens since May 2021. As of June 2022, it had repatriated approximately 2,500 Iraqis from al-Hawl, at a pace of roughly 150 families per month. On September 12, however, CENTCOM chief Gen. Michael Kurilla noted that the current pace of repatriation is too slow and would take four years to complete. Baghdad is attempting to ramp up its efforts, but obstacles persist, including security concerns, documentation problems, and social cohesion issues.
In addition to providing support for Iraq and other countries who are dealing with the repatriation issue on a larger scale, Washington should redouble its efforts to garner international cooperation on the matter and reiterate the dire implications for allied nations. On September 28, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman applauded the recent International Committee of the Red Cross decision to appoint a new special coordinator for northeast Syria, noting, “This coordinator will play an important role in improving conditions at [al-Hawl] camp and detention centers there.” Indeed, the decision is a much-needed step in the right direction. Yet while arguments for repatriation often focus on the humanitarian facet, this year’s cycle of IS attacks and SDF operations underscores the perilous security implications if the situation is left unchecked. IS will only continue targeting detention facilities across Syria and Iraq, since freeing its affiliates is still central to its plans for resurgence.
In short, Washington needs to emphasize that the facts on the ground are undeniably showing what activists, humanitarian workers, and academics have been warning about for years: the de facto policy of indefinite detention is producing a significant security threat for the United States and other countries around the world, one that coalition partners have not faced since IS lost its last bit of territory in 2019. Many partner governments may argue that repatriating IS adherents and sympathizers would present ample domestic security risks of its own, but U.S. officials need only remind them that the so-called IS “caliphate” served as a launchpad, planning center, and incitement factory for some of the worst mass-casualty terrorist attacks they have ever faced. Moreover, a proactive and well-planned strategy will help mitigate risks related to repatriation, enabling countries to monitor potential threats rather than having them slip past their borders undetected. To turn away from the path that the international community seems determined to go down once again, Washington should urge its partners to let the evidence—not politics—guide their policy.
*Devorah Margolin is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute. Previously, she helped lead a Department of Homeland Security-funded study on best practices for reintegration programming aimed at returning spouses and minors.

The Captagon War: Smuggling on the Jordanian-Syrian Border
Saud Al-Sharafat/The Washington Institute/October 01/2022
As drug smuggling increases across Jordan’s border with Syria, Jordanian authorities need to seek solutions in both the security and social spheres.
Smuggling activity along the 375-kilometer border between Jordan and Syria is nothing new. This activity is especially prevalent at border crossings in Jordan’s northern Irbid governorate, including the Ramtha border crossing opposite the Daraa border crossing in Syria, and the Jaber border crossing facing Syria’s Nasib border crossing.
However, the nature of smuggling has changed drastically over the past decade. During the 1990s, this cross-border smuggling was limited to livestock, cigarettes, and weapons. Today, however, this smuggling is focused on the transportation of drugs such as hashish, Captagon, crystal methamphetamine, and other illicit substances. The resulting development and expansion of drug smuggling activities—spreading out from war-torn Syria into the surrounding countries and region writ-large—has often been called the “Captagon War.” A major uptick in smuggling into Jordan has been recorded throughout 2022, even as Jordan has sought a rapprochement with the Assad regime. This uptick has left Jordanian security forces with the major challenge of securing its borders to stem the drug flow into the region and Europe while facing concurrent cross-border attacks from Iranian-backed militias.
Evolution of the Captagon Trade
Today, Syria is considered the world capital of Captagon, the brand name of a drug initially developed to treat attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), narcolepsy, and depression but highly addictive and commonly abused to heighten users’ awareness of their surroundings, boost energy, increase concentration, suppress appetite, and relieve anxiety.
Anti-state armed groups in Syria were some of the first to use the Captagon trade as a main source of funds during the early stages of the war against Assad. Since then, however, the Assad regime and its main regional allies—including Iran and Hezbollah—have been able to consolidate their role as the primary beneficiaries of the narcotics trade by tightening their control of drug smuggling activities on the ground. As a result, Syria is now a global hub for the production and export of hashish and Captagon to various parts of the world, both regionally—including destinations such as Turkey, the Persian Gulf, and North Africa—and in Europe. In 2020, Syrian Captagon exports reached a market value of at least $3.46 billion.
A number of media sources point to the involvement of prominent figures in the Syrian regime and Hezbollah militias as responsible for the growing success of the regional drug trade. This reality is all but confirmed by Jordanian security officials who have said that undisciplined Syrian army forces are working directly with drug smugglers on the border.
Jordanian Response
Jordanian customs patrols or the Badia Command and Border Guards, including the al-Hajana—border guard forces using camels to move along the border—have traditionally been tasked with keeping smuggling along Jordanian borders under control. In 1997, border control became even more stable after the Jordanian Armed Forces (JAF) absorbed the Badia Command and Border Guards following a royal decree, which resulted in the Royal Badia Forces Command. Nevertheless, the more recent involvement of regional power players such as Iran in the drug trade has posed a significant challenge to Jordan’s border control.
These funds also embolden the Syrian regime to continue its “drug diplomacy” in the historically-tense relationship with Jordan. In this context, Jordan’s King Abdullah II has actually welcomed Russia’s presence in southern Syria as “a source of calm” in contrast to his concerns that “a vacuum will be filled by the Iranians and their proxies.” If that were to happen, King Abdullah fears he would be “looking at an escalation of problems on our borders.” In an interview with Jordanian newspaper Al-Rai on July 24, the king also stressed the need for Iran to change its behavior as a condition for establishing good relations with it based on mutual respect and a respect for state sovereignty, especially as Jordan faces regular attacks on its borders by Iran-linked militias.
Despite recent Jordanian-Syrian rapprochement in the form of phone calls between the King and President Assad and joint meetings between senior Foreign and Defense Ministry officials on the issues of terrorism and smuggling, the Syrian regime continues to tolerate smuggling networks on both sides, especially when it comes to drugs such as Captagon. King Abdullah has condemned these dangerous practices and has even directly accused the Syrian and Iranian regimes of their involvement, but little has changed—a reality that both destabilizes Jordan’s domestic security and that of neighboring countries, especially Israel and Saudi Arabia.
In the meantime, Jordan is left to address these threats as best it can. The government has established a number of new security measures in its efforts to counter cross-border smuggling operations from Syria. When appointing Brigadier General Obaidullah al-Maaytah to the position of Director of Public Security on September 11, King Abdullah specifically mentioned the fight against drugs as a priority for the Public Security Directorate, asking al-Maaytah to “relentlessly continue the tireless efforts to combat drug smuggling.”
Jordan has also not hesitated in sending harshly worded warnings to Damascus on the topic of drug smuggling. At home, the JAF is conducting large-scale media campaigns through the Military Information Directorate to expose the progress and dangers of work on the border front, inviting local media outlets and a number of analysts and security experts—including myself—to visit the northeastern border region on February 17, 2021 to see the reality for ourselves.
But there is still much more for Jordan to do in order to effectively fight the “Captagon war.” Namely, Jordan must carry out continuous and long-term monitoring of drug traffickers and suspects, and continue to tighten border monitoring. It should also conduct a comprehensive and serious assessment of long-term, in-depth, and well-developed strategies to address the pockets of poverty most affected by smuggling in the villages of the eastern and northeastern Badia area. The Ruwaished district, in particular, has suffered from poverty, marginalization, and governmental neglect for decades, which has only been further exacerbated by COVID-19 in recent years.
Smuggling—especially drug smuggling—is not a security phenomenon alone. It is also a social, cultural, and economic phenomenon that requires a holistic solution integrating security and social institutions in a prudent way. The current efforts of the Military Information Directorate should be continued in cooperation with civil society institutions—especially the media—as well as schools, institutes, and universities in an effort to educate citizens, particularly in border areas, of the dangers of smuggling and its negative effects on society, security, and the national economy.
It is also necessary to increase cooperation and coordination between Jordan and the United States on the issue of border protection. Jordan should encourage the Biden administration to put pressure on Iran regarding Iranian-backed militias’ continued cross-border targeting of Jordan to allow forces there to refocus on smuggling. The United States should also direct donations, especially USAID, toward implementing some of their empowerment and local development projects in poverty hotspots in the border regions in northeastern Badia in order to address the socioeconomic factors driving the smuggling trade on the Jordanian side of the border. Finally, Jordan should be provided with the equipment and training needed to increase the efficacy of their border control—including suitable vehicles for the desert and day and night surveillance cameras—in order to catch up with highly-sophisticated smuggling networks, some of which have reached the point of using drones.

Celebrities, the Clergy, and Succession: Wild Cards in Iran’s Protests
Mehdi Khalaji/The Washington Institute/October 01/2022
By targeting celebs and financially coopting the clergy, the regime has revealed a great deal about what it sees as its greatest vulnerabilities.
As the latest protest wave continues to roll over Iran, its many unique features—some of which were discussed in PolicyWatch 3652—are significantly undermining the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic. This trend and the wild cards that are driving it will become especially problematic for the regime when it has to decide who will succeed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—whether down the road or more imminently if rumors regarding his poor health are true.
Celebrities Endorsing the Protests
From the start of the movement, the regime has brazenly intimidated influential public figures in a bid to prevent them from joining the protests or announcing their solidarity with people on the streets. Yet some prominent sports figures and cinema stars have nevertheless posted messages on social media sympathizing with anti-regime actions and condemning the government’s behavior and policies, especially the “compulsory veil” rule that sparked this round of protests. Notably, most of these messages have appeared on Instagram due to heavy regime filtering of other apps.
For example, soccer superstar Ali Karimi, a former player on the national team, was hit with unprecedented punishment for such a high-profile figure when he expressed support for the demonstrators. Shortly afterward, security forces assaulted his home and sealed it for a day, barring him from entering. Several other celebrities have been arrested outright. And on September 28, the judiciary warned that authorities would immediately seize the assets of any such figure who publicly supports or encourages the protesters.
This has not stopped some celebrities from acts of defiance, however. After the judiciary placed a travel ban on Mehran Modiri, Iran’s “King of Comedy,” he reportedly fled the country and posted criticisms of the regime response to the uprising. Elsewhere, several female celebrities have appeared in public or online without a hijab.
The regime’s aggressive pressure is based on its apparent assessment that celebrities may be the only class capable of mobilizing the masses and broadening the movement to the point that it threatens the Islamic Republic’s stability. Their heightened stature stems largely from the possibility that traditional political and civic figures inside Iran may have lost much of their social power base, along with the trust of many young people marching in the streets.
The Clergy’s Silence
Thus far, Iran’s Shia clerics—including its top religious authorities (marjas)—have not reacted to the protests at all. Their silence says much about the state of the institution four decades after the Islamic Revolution:
Under Khamenei, the clerical establishment has gone through a bureaucratic revolution that included monopolizing religious leadership under the Supreme Leader as the “ruling jurist.” This meant diminishing the role of marjas, who historically were quite independent of the government.
In the past, the clergy was primarily funded by voluntary religious taxes and endowments controlled by religious authorities. That changed as clerics relied more and more on government funding. Over the past decade in particular, they began to enter a wide range of economic activities (e.g., import-export firms, industrial enterprises), all of which are heavily dependent on government favors in order to stay profitable. In short, the clergy is no longer financially reliant on the Iranian people, but substantially beholden to the regime.
Although some clerical authorities likely harbor doubts about the regime’s policies and perhaps even its foundational “ruling jurist” doctrine, they are also concerned about what kind of government would replace the regime should it collapse. They (correctly) believe a successful anti-regime movement would lead to the emergence of a new government that is unwilling to preserve their special position and benefits. Thus, regardless of whether they agree or disagree with the regime’s ideology, many clerics likely see the Islamic Republic’s survival as the only path for maintaining their political and economic privileges.
Implications for Succession
Do these protests signal the beginning of the end for the regime, or will Tehran be able to stop the uprising by resorting to even greater violence? The answer remains unclear for now, but the question of Khamenei’s succession could shape the answer.
If ongoing rumors about the Supreme Leader’s ill health are valid, then one might plausibly expect regime decisionmakers— especially the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps—to hesitate about violently suppressing protesters to the degree seen in past uprisings. In a scenario where he is poised to leave the scene, mass killings on the street would risk severely complicating the succession process and foiling the IRGC’s post-Khamenei objectives. Appointing a new Supreme Leader will ostensibly require a quieter domestic scene free of major unrest or legitimacy crises. Whoever Khamenei’s successor might be, he will need to create a social power base for himself, even if it hinges on a minority of the population. This would enable the next leader and his regime to create a favorable public image of itself and establish enough legitimacy to assert control—regardless of whether a large portion of the populace privately questions his authority. Ongoing street protests would ruin such efforts.
Furthermore, repeated crackdowns on fellow Iranians have left many political elites, ordinary citizens, and even faithful supporters with fundamental questions about how much the regime respects Islamic and Iranian law. With each new crisis, the regime has suffered a significant loss in its social base, so the combination of continued protests, another heavy crackdown, and a messy succession could pose an existential threat to the whole system.
If the regime decides to refrain from further mass violence, it will need to strike a serious compromise with the protesters, whether explicitly or implicitly. This would presumably mean a government promise to stop harassing citizens in the public sphere, perhaps including some kind of de facto freedom regarding the appearance of women—or, at the very least, an understanding that such “violations” of religious codes will be dealt with sympathetically rather than harshly (or fatally).
Alternatively, the IRGC may be counting on the currently leaderless and unorganized protest movement to fade away through a combination of internal exhaustion and intense regime intimidation. Yet if the movement expands drastically and shows signs of becoming more well-organized, then the IRGC may decide that waiting it out is not an option, and that unlimited violence is required to end the protests definitively.
*Mehdi Khalaji is the Libitzky Family Fellow at The Washington Institute.

د. ماجد رفي زاده/معهد جيتستون: هدية إدارة بايدن لروسيا هي الصفقة النووية مع ملالي إيران ومع نظامهم الإرهابي والتوسعي
Biden Administration’s Gift to Russia: Iran Nuke Deal
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/ Gatestone Institute/October 01/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/112403/112403/
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has stunningly made it clear to US lawmakers that the Biden administration will not stand in the way of Russia cashing in on the $10 billion contract as well as Russia-Iran nuclear cooperation. And the State Department spokesman Ned Price reiterated the Biden administration’s stance by pointing out: “We, of course, would not sanction Russian participation in nuclear projects that are part of resuming full implementation of the JCPOA”.
“The Biden administration is so desperate for a deal with Iran they’ll broker a $10 billion payoff to Russia and waive their own sanctions to make it happen.” — US Representative Darrell Issa, Washington Free Beacon, May 2, 2022.
In addition, the Biden administration is trusting Russia to conduct the nuclear negotiations on behalf of the US; to be the sole country to oversee compliance of the nuclear deal, and to keep Iran’s highly enriched uranium — able to return it to Iran if the mullahs request it, or possibly even use it themselves.
Fifty bipartisan US lawmakers urgeed the Biden administration “not to permit Russia to be the recipient of Iran’s enriched uranium nor to have the right to conduct nuclear work with the Islamic Republic, including a $10 billion contract to expand Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. We should not let war criminal Vladimir Putin be the guarantor of the deal or the keeper of massive amounts of Iran’s enriched uranium. Iran supports the illegal war in Ukraine and has been supplying Russia with drones used to kill Ukrainians.”
“This Iran Deal if and when it is announced will be a massive win for Vladimir Putin.” — US Senator Ted Cruz, Fox News, March 9, 2022.
“Mr President, you’re the only one in America doing business with the Russians, stop doing business with the Russians. Don’t have them negotiating for us, walk on this deal.” — US Senator Jim Risch, Fox News, March 9, 2022.
The Biden administration nevertheless appears determined to give Russia the biggest gift ever: an Iran nuclear deal, complete with enriched uranium for nuclear bombs to be used whenever Russia or Iran decide.US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has stunningly made it clear to US lawmakers that the Biden administration will not stand in the way of Russia cashing in on a $10 billion contract to expand Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Pictured: The reactor building of the Russian-built Bushehr nuclear power plant in southern Iran.
The Biden administration is still hoping to revive the nuclear deal with the ruling mullahs of Iran and to keep the US Congress out of it, perhaps during the Christmas break when Congress is not in session. The Biden administration’s nuclear deal will not only be a win for the ruling mullahs of Iran, but also for Iran’s staunch ally, Russia.
First of all, Biden’s new deal will gift Russia by allowing it to cash in on a $10 billion contract to expand Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Russian President Vladimir Putin will most likely have a stake in the $10 billion contract. In fact, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has stunningly made it clear to US lawmakers that the Biden administration will not stand in the way of Russia cashing in on the $10 billion contract as well as Russia-Iran nuclear cooperation. And the State Department spokesman Ned Price reiterated the Biden administration’s stance by pointing out: “We, of course, would not sanction Russian participation in nuclear projects that are part of resuming full implementation of the JCPOA”.
That is a total capitulation to two tyrants and authoritarian regimes: the Ayatollahs’ and Putin’s. As US Rep. Darrell Issa (R., Calif.) accurately pointed out: “The Biden administration is so desperate for a deal with Iran they’ll broker a $10 billion payoff to Russia and waive their own sanctions to make it happen.”
In addition, the Biden administration is trusting Russia to conduct the nuclear negotiations on behalf of the US; to be the sole country to oversee compliance with the nuclear deal, and to keep Iran’s highly enriched uranium — able to return it to Iran if the mullahs request it. This provision triggered 50 bipartisan US lawmakers to write to Biden: “[W]e strongly urge your Administration not to permit Russia to be the recipient of Iran’s enriched uranium nor to have the right to conduct nuclear work with the Islamic Republic, including a $10 billion contract to expand Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. We should not let war criminal Vladimir Putin be the guarantor of the deal or the keeper of massive amounts of Iran’s enriched uranium. Iran supports the illegal war in Ukraine and has been supplying Russia with drones used to kill Ukrainians.”
Biden’s new nuclear deal will lift sanctions on the Iranian regime and open the flow of billions of dollars to the ruling mullahs who are providing weapons to Russia in the Ukraine, to prolong the war and cause even more damage to Ukrainians. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) supplied Russia with hundreds of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), including advanced models capable of firing missiles. A Russian delegation recently visited an airfield in central Iran on several occasions to examine Iran’s weapons-capable drones.
Many US Senators have slammed the Biden administration for working with Russia on the new Iran nuclear deal while Putin continues his slaughter in Ukraine. “This Iran Deal if and when it is announced will be a massive win for Vladimir Putin,” Senator Ted Cruz said during the press conference.
“Because the Biden administration has been eager to tell Putin and tell the Ayatollah of course we will have a carveout for the Iran deal on Russia sanctions which means Putin will make billions in oil and gas transactions, in nuclear transactions, and in weapons transactions.”
Senator Jim Risch added: “Mr President, you’re the only one in America doing business with the Russians, stop doing business with the Russians. Don’t have them negotiating for us, walk on this deal.”
Working with Russia to get a deal on Iran nuclear program is “insane,” Senator Joni Ernst rightly put it.
“Russia, this is the country with tanks running over Ukraine right now killing innocent civilians… Children, women, people that we care about and yet they’re using those Russians to negotiate a deal with yet another one of our near-peer adversaries, Iran.”
Senator John Barrasso also echoed other Senators’ message by stating: “It’s the Russians who are doing the negotiations on behalf of the United States. You turn on the TV and radio and see what the Russians are doing in Ukraine. How in the world can we allow them to negotiate on our behalf?”
The Biden administration nevertheless appears determined to give Russia the biggest gift ever: an Iran nuclear deal, complete with enriched uranium for nuclear bombs to be used whenever Russia or Iran decide.
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
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The emerging Biden doctrine and what it means for the world
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/October 01, 2022
There is nothing like crisis and upheaval to focus the mind, and in less than two years of his presidency, Joe Biden has had more than his fair share of both.
He entered the White House in the middle of a pandemic, with his citizens at each other’s throats, and his rallying of humanity to live up to the challenges of climate change faltering as rising tensions with China were singled out as the main challenge to US and global stability. On top of all that came Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February this year. This is only part of a long list on a saturated agenda that demands not only immediate answers from his administration but also a response that goes beyond mere crisis management and instead calls for the development of a well-organized doctrine that defines America’s place in the world and its mission. This is something that has been missing for a while.
Through no fault of his own, the first months of Biden’s presidency were all about focusing on restoring a modicum of sanity following the chaotic tenure of his predecessor that culminated in the Jan. 6 insurrection. The urgency of that task sometimes overshadowed the importance of developing a long-term strategy. Furthermore, Biden began his term in office widely viewed as a one-term president who would be more concerned with steadying the ship than implementing reforms. Consequently, a Biden doctrine did not emerge, although within a few months it became clear he had no intention of being a stop-gap president but, rather, was a veteran politician with a wealth of experience on the world stage who was determined to leave his mark.
In his speech last month to the UN General Assembly, something emerged that resembled a doctrine: A holistic approach to the global challenges facing the US and not a piecemeal response to any particular threats that might present themselves.
That he would concentrate on Russian aggression in his UN speech was a given. However, Biden’s response went beyond that ongoing war itself and emphasized the existential necessity for the US, if it is to remain safe and prosper, to remain true to its values, to lead and consolidate its engagement with organizations such as NATO, the EU and the Organization of American States, and with its Middle Eastern allies, and to strengthen its affinity with America’s fellow democracies. A preview of this had already been provided by, for example, the agreement, together with the UK, to supply Australia with nuclear submarines under the UKUSA alliance. In the early days of his presidency, Biden embarked on a diplomatic campaign to reassure NATO members and European friends that the US was back and keen to resurrect close ties based on shared values, a campaign that remedied the constant, illogical and irrational rancor that had been shown toward them by his predecessor.Russia’s war on Ukraine provided a platform for Biden to translate his intentions into concrete policies and back them up with more than $25 billion in aid to date. His address to the General Assembly set the stage for him to distinguish the US as defender of the UN charter, at the heart of which is the idea, and ideal, of global collective security.
It aims at enhancing international cooperation with allies and building bridges with rivals where cooperation is possible, and taking steps to deter those who threaten regional and world order.
However, the very fact that a permanent member of the Security Council is currently violating the sanctity of another country’s sovereignty, and in doing so committing horrendous atrocities against the Ukrainian people, has inevitably led to questions about the viability of the UN as a mechanism for preserving peace, and especially the role of its Security Council.
It is no secret that this body — which was created in the aftermath of the horrors of the Second World War and given the task, at least in principle, of preventing future conflicts or stopping them when they do break out — has failed spectacularly.
This has mainly been due to its five permanent members operating within the paradigm of realpolitik in a context that was supposed to adhere to and advance the liberal-institutionalist perspective. The Security Council has failed to operate in the realm of world affairs in a way that accepts that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. Instead its permanent members have been mainly preoccupied with consolidating alliances to serve their own national interests rather than subscribing to the UN charter’s aim of collective security as the modus operandi in order to “maintain international peace and security.”
Because of this, a major building block of the nascent Biden doctrine is reform of the UN, and the Security Council in particular, by expanding the latter to become more representative of the current international arena, rather than the way it was in 1945.
In a rather exceptional moment of self-introspection, America’s president called for the permanent members of the Security Council, including the US, to refrain from the use of their power of veto “except in rare, extraordinary situations, to ensure that the council remains credible and effective.”
These are more noble than novel ideas, but creating additional permanent seats for countries from Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, as was suggested by Biden, is a step in the right direction toward a more inclusive international arena that provides a voice and influence to parts of the world that for much too long have been treated as no more than making up the numbers on the chessboard of great power rivalries.
While Russia’s brutality in Ukraine inevitably demands that the world rally around to stop the old-style politics of a country using force to impose its will on a neighbor, the agenda that the Biden administration is promoting, and which was reflected in his General Assembly speech, is one that prioritizes US leadership on climate change, the current global economic and food crises, and the advancement of human development, all of which are issues which affect billions of people around the world.
This emergent Biden doctrine combines hard and soft power. It starts with moves to create a fairer and greener economy at home, working to enhance international cooperation with allies and building bridges with rivals where cooperation is possible, and taking steps to deter those who threaten regional and world order. The Biden administration’s instincts are to embrace a global agenda in line with the UN’s founding principles, adjusted to take account of 21st-century challenges and combined with a reformist drive.
However, for a new US global agenda to succeed will take much convincing of others, including friends, that America is ready to lead without dictating, to share power, and to demonstrate that it has internalized the idea that its self-interest is consistent with the security and prosperity of others that do not enjoy the same political, military and economic power.
There were enough hints of this in Biden’s speech at the UN; now it is time for his administration to roll up its sleeves and articulate all of it in a clearly stated doctrine.
*Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media. Twitter: @YMekelberg