English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For October 01/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.october01.22.htm

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Bible Quotations For today
When the unclean spirit has gone out of a person, it wanders through waterless regions looking for a resting-place,but it finds none.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 12/43-45/:"‘When the unclean spirit has gone out of a person, it wanders through waterless regions looking for a resting-place, but it finds none. Then it says, "I will return to my house from which I came." When it comes, it finds it empty, swept, and put in order. Then it goes and brings along seven other spirits more evil than itself, and they enter and live there; and the last state of that person is worse than the first. So will it be also with this evil generation.’"

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 30- October 01/2022
Lebanon: Divided Opposition Fails to Agree on Presidential Candidate
Bou Saab says Aoun may receive Hochstein's proposal within 24 hours
President Aoun discusses return of displaced Syrians with Ambassador Ali, tackles educational affairs with MP Traboulsi
Aoun on govt. formation: Some are maneuvering
Report: Hezbollah seeking to sway Bassil to endorse Franjieh
Mikati says devaluation of pound will be gradual
Govt. formation efforts not deadlocked as Ibrahim continues mediation
Change MP accuses opposition parties of torpedoing presidential vote agreement
Lebanon's dwindling rain leaves farmers struggling for water
Frangieh tackles developments with French Ambassador
Lebanon schools struggle to open as finance woes bite

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 30- October 01/2022
Senior IRGC commander shot dead in clashes with anti-regime gunmen
Internet Blackout in Iran Threatens 400,000 Professions, Risks Unemployment of 1 Million Iranians
Washington Imposes New Sanctions on Iran’s Petroleum Sales
Iran Targets Celebrities, Media over Mahsa Amini Protests
US Confirms Death of American Citizen in Iran’s Attacks on Iraqi Kurdistan
Amnesty: Iran ordered forces to 'severely confront' protests
Exiled for decades, Iranian Kurds in Iraq come under fresh fire
US calls on Israel to investigate death of Palestinian boy
Ignoring Iraqi Protest, Iran Continues Bombing Kurdistan Region Villages
UK's PM: Putin Cannot Alter International Borders Using 'Brute Force'
Kremlin: Any Attack on Annexed Territory Will be an Attack on Russia
Putin accuses West of 'explosions' that caused Nord Stream leaks
Zelensky 'won't negotiate' with Putin, requests accelerated NATO membership
Erdogan: Turkish Intelligence Contacts with Damascus will Determine 'Ties Roadmap'
Kuwait Elections Make Significant Changes

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 30- October 01/2022
Russia Expanding Its Influence in Latin America/Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/September 30, 2022
Iran: The Chained Volcano/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/September, 30/2022
Iran Has Lost Sight of Its Greatest Asset: Women/Firoozeh Dumas/The New York Times/September, 30/2022
Is this the End of the Muslim Brotherhood?/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al-Awsat/September, 30/2022
The Iranian drone threat and how to counter it/Luke Coffey/Arab News/October 01/2022
Iran’s women can bring about the regime’s downfall/Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Arab News/October 01/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on September 30- October 01/2022
Lebanon: Divided Opposition Fails to Agree on Presidential Candidate
Beirut - Paula Astih/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 30 September, 2022 -
Parliament’s opposition forces, represented by the Lebanese Forces, the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), the Kataeb, the Change Movement and other independent deputies, have failed on Thursday to reach consensus over a unified candidate for the presidency. During a parliamentary session devoted to the election of a successor to President Michel Aoun, the opposition’s votes were distributed as follows: 36 deputies voted for the head of the Independence Movement, MP Michel Mouawad, 11 others chose businessman Salim Eddeh, son of the late minister Michel Eddeh, and 10 wrote “Lebanon” on the ballot paper. A prior understanding would have given the opposition forces the opportunity to wage a united presidential battle, with 65 votes against 63 blank papers submitted by the representatives of the Shiite duo - Amal movement and Hezbollah – and the deputies of the Strong Lebanon bloc, headed by MP Gibran Bassil. Member of the Strong Lebanon bloc, MP Alain Aoun, denied that there had been a prior understanding with Hezbollah to cast a blank vote. He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Free Patriotic Movement “chose to submit white blank papers without coordinating with any of the other forces, due to the lack of consensus on a candidate so far.” The decision of the opposition forces to vote for different candidates affected the relationship between its components. Representative of the Change movement, Paula Yacoubian, accused the rest of the opposition forces of “overturning the understanding that we were working on.”She said: “They reversed all the understandings, and stipulated that we support the candidate they agreed upon and who does not meet our requirements for a personality outside the political alignment… Can they secure 65 votes for Michel Mouawad?”In response, sources in the Lebanese Forces said: “What concerns us at this stage is that the majority of the opposition components voted in favor of the presidential candidate, Michel Mouawad. Based on the principle of democracy, the door is open for consultation and communication with all these components once again to confirm that the majority wants this direction.” The sources added: “All opposition parties as well as independents must join this sovereign reformist option; because it serves the unity of the opposition.”

Bou Saab says Aoun may receive Hochstein's proposal within 24 hours
Naharnet/Friday, 30 September, 2022
Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab has said that he is hoping President Michel Aoun will receive within 24 hours a written proposal from U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein regarding the demarcation of the sea border with Israel. “The proposal will be studied and if it meets the conditions it will be positive and will be capitalized on,” Bou Saab said in a TV interview. “The atmosphere is positive and we do not want to go too far in optimism pending the written response,” Bou Saab added. “We have managed to resolve several pending points between the Lebanese and Israeli sides and the solutions are appropriate for Lebanon,” he said. The Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation meanwhile said that Israel is expecting to receive the final format of the U.S. demarcation proposal within days.“The Israeli security and political affairs cabinet would then meet on Thursday to discuss approving the agreement,” the Corporation added.

President Aoun discusses return of displaced Syrians with Ambassador Ali, tackles educational affairs with MP Traboulsi
NNA/Friday, 30 September, 2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, received Syrian Ambassador to Lebanon Ali Abdel Karim Ali, today at the Presidential Palace. Bilateral relations between Lebanon and Syria, especially what is related to the situation of the Syrian refugees in Lebanon in light of the plan that Lebanon puts in place to gradually return them to their homeland were deliberated.
Statement:
After the meeting, the Syrian ambassador made the following statement:
"I was pleased today to meet His Excellency the President and conveyed to him the greetings of President Bashar al-Assad and his wishes for Lebanon continued progress.
We discussed a number of issues of concern to the two countries, based on the brotherly relations that unite us, especially the issue of the return of Syrian refugees from Lebanon to Syria, which we are witnessing today more than ever, a serious treatment, especially since Syria provided the necessary facilities for this and took measures that help to achieve this return, in cooperation with the brotherly Lebanese state.
The major countries and international organizations need to facilitate this return, and help both countries to complete it and stop suggesting that Syria does not want its sons to return to it. This is incorrect and refuted by the facts and the measures taken.
We believe that what helps to speed up the return is that the financial aid and the amounts paid to the displaced brothers in Lebanon, if they were paid to the returnees in Syria, the results would be better, and that the strength of these amounts would be doubled so that the returning Syrian citizen would benefit from them in various health and educational fields. development and social.
Questions & Answers:
In response to a question, Ambassador Ali indicated that among the facilities provided by his country for the return of the displaced, "A series of amnesty laws issued by His Excellency President al-Assad, which include even terrorist crimes, unless they reach the limit of a few people. In addition, the concerned countries were informed that Syria does not obstruct the return of its sons to it, and it is serious about receiving them and facilitating their return, and will not hesitate to secure everything that achieves a dignified return for them”.
On the other hand, the Syrian ambassador hoped that an agreement would be reached to form a new government that would "Contribute to strengthening relations between the two countries and help organize the return of the displaced, which needs cooperation between the governments of the two countries”.
MP Traboulsi:
The President met Mp Edgar Traboulsi and discussed with him the conditions of the Lebanese University and the financial rights owed to it. The meeting also tackled the issue of the dollarization of tuition fees in private schools, the failure of the ceilings of these installments, and the suffering of the students' families as a result.
In addition, the current political situation, governmental developments, forming the new government and demarcating the southern maritime borders were also addressed. -- Presidency Press Office

Aoun on govt. formation: Some are maneuvering
Naharnet/Friday, 30 September, 2022
President Michel Aoun has said that “it seems that things have not totally matured yet” regarding the formation of the new government. “Some are maneuvering,” Aoun added, in an interview with the Annasher news portal published Friday. “Things have become clear: domestic and foreign intersections have rejected my rule,” the president said. “They don’t want me to make any achievement, as if the achievement would be for me and not for the Lebanese and Lebanon,” Aoun went on to say. He added: “I knew that the confrontation would be difficult, the same as I knew that confronting Syrian occupation would be also difficult, but I preferred it over surrender and handing the country over.”Wishing success for the next president in continuing what he has started at the various levels, Aoun said that he will return to political action from his residence in Rabieh.

Report: Hezbollah seeking to sway Bassil to endorse Franjieh
Naharnet/Friday, 30 September, 2022
Hezbollah has intensified its contacts with its allies in order to close ranks based on the 63 blank votes that the Hezbollah-led camp and some independents cast in Thursday’s presidential election session, a media report said on Friday. “Without much effort, these votes might rise to 65 in order to fight a battle with one candidate,” ad-Diyar newspaper quoted unnamed sources as saying. “Hezbollah and Speaker Nabih Berri have endorsed Suleiman Franjieh’s nomination and are promoting it among their allies first, ahead of holding the necessary series of contacts with the domestic and foreign forces,” the sources added. “Bilateral contacts between the Free Patriotic Movement and Hezbollah have intensified in a bid to reconcile viewpoints over the issue of endorsing Franjieh,” the sources went on to say. In this regard, the sources added that “things are no longer deadlocked with FPM chief Jebran Bassil as they were before” and that “the Marada Movement leader is dealing with a lot of positivity and openness towards Bassil’s concerns.”

Mikati says devaluation of pound will be gradual
Naharnet/Friday, 30 September, 2022
Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati has reassured that the new official exchange rate of LBP 15,000 against the dollar will be implemented “gradually” and that initial exemptions will include banks' balance sheets and housing and personal loans. The Lebanese pound has been officially pegged at 1,507 to the dollar since 1997, a rate that has not reflected reality for years as the currency has been in free-fall. From November 1, "the Finance Ministry and the central bank agreed to adopt a rate of 15,000 Lebanese pounds for every U.S. dollar," the Ministry said on Wednesday, in a rate confirmed by the central bank. The move was a "first step," the Ministry said, toward unifying Lebanon's multiple exchange rates -- a major prerequisite for the country to access IMF funding.

Govt. formation efforts not deadlocked as Ibrahim continues mediation
Naharnet/Friday, 30 September, 2022
The government formation efforts are not deadlocked and the mediation of General Security chief Abbas Ibrahim is about to reach its conclusions, a media report said on Friday. “Ibrahim will carry out today a new round of negotiations between the Baabda Palace and the Grand Serail to continue discussions over the issue of the names that will be changed in the new line-up,” sources informed on the negotiations told al-Joumhouria newspaper. “The issue of the conditions that were set by Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Jebran Bassil has been shelved, after PM-designate Najib Mikati stressed that he cannot commit to them alone seeing as they require the consensus of cabinet’s components,” the sources added. “However, some of the conditions will be discussed in the meeting that will gather President Michel Aoun and Mikati in the beginning of next week, and if an agreement is reached today over the pending points, the meeting might be held tomorrow,” the sources went on to say. The sources added that “what’s being negotiated on is four names for four portfolios” and that “the time for the formation process is no longer open-ended.”

Change MP accuses opposition parties of torpedoing presidential vote agreement
Naharnet/Friday, 30 September, 2022
MP Paula Yacoubian of the Change parliamentary bloc has accused the other opposition forces of “turning against the understanding” that both groupings were reportedly working on in a bid to agree on a single candidate for the presidential election. “Is there a figure that is more sovereign than (ex-MP) Salah Honein? Why don’t they want to go to a reasonable and acceptable solution?” Yacoubian asked, in an interview with Asharq al-Awsat newspaper published Friday. “They turned against all agreements and made a condition that we endorse the candidate whom they agreed on and who is not consistent with our initiative which calls for a figure that is not part of the political alignments,” the MP added. “We believe that only such a figure can secure the number of votes that allows the election of a president and can prevent the win of a March 8 figure. Can they secure 65 votes for Michel Mouawad?” Yacoubian wondered. Lebanese Forces sources responded to Yacoubian’s remarks, saying that what’s important is that “most opposition components have voted for the presidential candidate Michel Mouawad.”“Based on the principle of democracy, this will open the door to renewed consultations and communication with all these components to stress that the majority wants this orientation,” the LF sources told Asharq al-Awsat. “Accordingly, all opposition parties and independents must join this sovereign and reformist choice, because it is in the interest of the opposition’s unity,” the sources added.

Lebanon's dwindling rain leaves farmers struggling for water
Naharnet/Friday, 30 September, 2022
Farmers in a small town perched on a northern Lebanese mountain have long refused to accept defeat even as the government abandoned them to a life off the grid. Harf Beit Hasna receives almost no basic services. No water or sewage system, no streetlight or garbage collection. The only public school is closed. The nearest pharmacy is a long drive down a winding mountain road. "We live on another planet," said Nazih Sabra, a local farmer. "The state has completely forgotten us, and so have the politicians and municipalities."Its around 2,500 residents have gotten by because of an ingenious solution: They dug trenches, lined them with plastic and use them to collect rainwater. For decades, the rainwater enabled them to grow enough crops for themselves, with a surplus to sell. But where government neglect didn't kill Harf Beit Hasna, the combination of climate change and economic disaster now threatens to. In recent years, rainfall in Lebanon has decreased, straining even the most water-rich country in the Middle East. At the same time, the country's economy has fallen apart the past two and a half years; families whose livelihoods have been wrecked struggle to afford basics as prices spiral. Harf Beit Hasna, on a remote mountain plateau above steep valleys, has taken pride in making it on its own with its rain-water pools. The town is dotted with them, most of them the size of a backyard swimming pool. Sabra said he remembers in his childhood how his grandfather and other farmers could raise livestock and sustain a decent living.
But recent years have gotten harder. As rain declined and temperatures warmed, farmers adapted. They grew less of water-demanding produce like tomatoes and cucumbers and planted tobacco, a more drought-resistant plant.
Now they can barely grow enough to get by.
"If there isn't rain, you use whatever you have left stored and work with a deficit," Sabra said. "You can't even afford to farm anymore."Sabra's field is barren and dry, save some tobacco plants and potatoes. He tried to plant a small patch of tomatoes for his family's use. But to save water, he had to let them die. The rotting tomatoes swarm with pests. "There's nothing we can do with them", Sabra said, before taking a long drag off his cigarette. He has a small patch of eggplants surrounded by barren, cracking soil. He hopes he can sell them in the nearby city of Tripoli to buy more potable water for his family this month.
"Those eggplants wouldn't have been there without the ponds," he says with a smile. His pool, which can hold around 200 cubic meters of water, was only about a quarter full. The water was green, because he's been drawing on it slowly, trying to ration out what's left.
From his field, Sabra can see the Mediterranean Sea on the horizon and, below him, a valley where there are freshwater springs. But gasoline is too expensive for him to drive daily to get water from there. He struggles to afford school for his children. His home hasn't had electricity for weeks because no power comes from the state network, and he can't afford fuel for his personal generator.Government services and infrastructure across Lebanon are decrepit and faltering. But Harf Bait Hasna's situation is particularly bad. It's remote and hard to reach. Administratively, it's caught between two different municipalities, neither of which wants to deal with it. And, residents say, it has no political patron -- a crucial need for any community to get anything in Lebanon's factionalized politics. Sabra and other farmers say politicians for years have ignored their requests for a well or a connection to the state's water network.
At Harf Beit Hasna, government neglect and climate change have combined to leave "an area very challenged with water security," said Sammy Kayed, at the American University of Beirut's Nature Conservation Center. The disaster in the town is "much more profound (because) you have an entire community that is reliant on rain-fed agriculture" but can no longer rely on rain, he said.
Kayed, the co-founder and managing director of the Conservation Center's Environment Academy, is trying to find donors to fund a solar-powered well for the town and to draw officials' attention to get it connected to the state water network.
Across Lebanon, periods of rainfall have shrunk and the number of consecutive days of high temperatures have increased, said Vahakn Kabakian, the U.N. Development Program's Lebanon climate change adviser. A recent report by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization said water scarcity, pollution, and inequitable water usage add to the difficulties of Lebanon's agricultural communities. The agriculture sector amounts only to a tiny fraction of the country's economy and so is often overlooked, and it like the rest of Lebanon's producers and consumers are struggling with skyrocketing costs.
In Lebanon's breadbasket in the eastern Bekaa Valley, farmers say their work is disrupted by strange weather patterns because of climate change. "Rain has declined in its usual period, and we're seeing our soil dry up and crack. But then we somehow got more rain than usual in June," Ibrahim Tarchichi, head of the Bekaa Farmers Association told the AP. "We haven't seen anything like this before in the Bekaa."He doesn't expect anything from Lebanon's politicians. "Here, you can only expect help from God."The government for years has pledged to diversify its economy and invest more in the ailing agriculture sector. But since the economy fell out, the divided ruling clique has hardly been able to formulate any policies, failing to pass a 2022 budget so far and resisting reforms demanded for an International Monetary Fund bailout.In the meantime, Sabra takes some water from one of his ponds and sighs. He has almost run out of water from the last rainy season in the winter. This is his only lifeline to last until the rains come again."There is nothing left for us but the ponds," he said.

Frangieh tackles developments with French Ambassador
NNA/September 30, 2022
"Marada" Movement leader, Sleiman Franjieh, on Friday welcomed at his Bnachii residence, French Ambassador to Lebanon, Anne Grillo, in the presence of former Minister Rony Araygi. Discussions touched on the overall regional and international situation, as well as the latest local developments, especially with regards to yesterday’s parliamentary session.

Lebanon schools struggle to open as finance woes bite
Najia Houssari/Arab News/September 30, 2022
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s public education system is facing collapse a week before the start of the academic year, with teachers unable to pay for transport, and students dropping out because their parents cannot afford essential school items. After three years of an economic crisis that shows no sign of ending, schools are also struggling to provide basic needs, such as heating and electricity. An adviser to Abbas Halabi, the minister of education and higher education in the caretaker government, told Arab News that meetings are being held with donor countries, international organizations, the World Bank and ambassadors in an effort to cover the costs of teachers’ transport to school.
Assistance to help students attend school has not yet been discussed, the official said. Lebanon’s spiralling economy has forced thousands of parents to transfer their children from private schools and universities to public institutions. Edouard Beigbeder, the UNICEF representative in Lebanon, warned of an increase in the number of students dropping out of school. Estimates suggest that up to 16 percent of Lebanese children and 49 percent of Syrian refugee students have not been enrolled in primary school, despite education ministry efforts to encourage a return to study. Parents blame the country’s financial woes for the problem, saying they cannot afford their children’s transport fees, books or stationery. Halabi warned from New York during an education summit held on the sidelines of the UN’s General Assembly 10 days ago that “if Lebanese students do not receive education, no others will.”
He had previously pleaded with donors to “secure aid that will enable the ministry to launch the school year, which seems impossible in light of the educational bodies refusing to show up at public schools and the Lebanese University.”
Lebanon is seeking aid of around $100 million for pre-university education, $37 million for the Lebanese University and $20 million for vocational education. In addition to implementing a host of economic and political reforms, the international community has asked Lebanon to integrate Syrian and Lebanese students in morning and afternoon periods in order to reduce expenses.
Private schools and universities demanded payment of tuition fees partly in Lebanese pounds and partly in dollars. However, the education ministry opposed the move, claiming it breached laws that stipulates the use of Lebanese currency. Education institutions ignored the objection, claiming the only alternative would be to close, and established a “parents’ contribution fund” separate from the budget. Parents who were unable to pay the tuition fees were left with the option of transferring their children from private schools or universities to public institutions. Huda Suleiman, president of the Human and Future Association for children with special needs, said that she will be unable to open the school in Taanayel in the Bekaa Valley this year because the Ministry of Social Affairs, which “provides us aid, did not pay what it owes us.”A limit on monthly bank withdrawals means she can pay only two teaching salaries.
We have physical, motor and occupational specialists whose salaries are high, in addition to fuel costs,” she said. Suleiman said parents were unable to contribute or even drop their children at school, as some traveled long distances.
Transport costs are beyond the salaries of most parents, many of whom are farmers or members of the military and internal security forces, she added. The education ministry has yet to solve a dispute with education bodies demanding a salary increase and further financial incentives.
According to a study by the Center for Educational Research and Development, the number of students in Lebanon exceeded 1 million two years ago. They include 334,536 students or 31 percent in public schools, 565,593 students or 52 percent in private schools, and 140,312 students or 13 percent in private free schools. There are 36,375 students, or more than 3 percent, at UNRWA schools for Palestinian refugees. Lebanon is home to 40 universities and institutes, and more than 40 percent of tertiary students attend the Lebanese University, a public institution.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on September 30- October 01/2022
Senior IRGC commander shot dead in clashes with anti-regime gunmen
Arab News/September 30, 2022
LONDON: A senior commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was shot dead on Friday during clashes with anti-regime gunman, according to state media. Ali Mousavi, who was a leading figure of the IRGC in the Sistan-Baluchestan province, was killed in the south-eastern city of Zahedan, Tasnim news agency reported. State media also reported a shootout broke out at a police station in the city earlier in the day, amid ongoing anti-government protests following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini earlier this month. She died in custody after being arrested by Iran’s morality police. At least 76 people have been killed in Tehran’s violent crackdown on protesters, while anti-regime demonstrations have broken out in cities around the world.

Internet Blackout in Iran Threatens 400,000 Professions, Risks Unemployment of 1 Million Iranians
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 30 September, 2022
The E-Commerce Association in Tehran warned Thursday of a new collapse in the labor market. It said that 400,000 Iranian businesses were at risk of going bust and one million people will likely lose their jobs as a result of the internet blackout.The Association issued a statement on its Instagram page stressing that blocking social media networks, confronting internet users, as well as dozens of other wrong decisions are prompting a wave of resentment among workers in companies and institutions active in the field of technology, noting that some of these workers went on strike. “Cutting access to Instagram [for instance] has put more than 400,000 businesses at risk of obliteration and has caused serious problems for the livelihoods of more than a million people,” the statement explained. Web monitor NetBlocks and Iranian sources said authorities restricted access to the internet in several provinces to limit the flow of information and the posting of videos on social media platforms. The watchdog said that the internet shutdown costs Iran $1.5 million per hour. Iran restricted access to Instagram, WhatsApp, LinkedIn, Skype, Google Play, Apple Store and Microsoft amid protests over the death of a woman in police custody.
Iran’s Communications Minister Issa Zarepour hinted at the possibility of blocking WhatsApp and Instagram applications for good. He told reporters on the sidelines of a cabinet meeting that some US social media platforms have become incubators for riots, prompting the government to impose restrictions.
“Restrictions will continue as long as the protests go on,” Zarepour stressed, calling on Iranians not to organize their activities in environments that do not comply with Iran’s laws and regulations. “It’s still not an internet shutdown, and it’s hard to even describe what they are doing to the network as shutdowns. Perhaps extreme throttling is the best simple term for it,” said the Iran researcher for freedom of expression group Article 19, Mahsa Alimardani. “But the disruptions are heavy,” she told AFP, saying disconnections were hitting a peak from late afternoon to midnight when most protests take place.

Washington Imposes New Sanctions on Iran’s Petroleum Sales
Washington - Rana Abtar/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 30 September, 2022
The United States on Thursday imposed sanctions on companies it accused of involvement in Iran's petrochemical and petroleum trade, pressuring Tehran as it seeks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. “So long as Iran refuses a mutual return to full implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the US will continue to enforce its sanctions on the sale of Iranian petroleum and petrochemical products,” the Treasury's Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Brian Nelson, said in a statement. Washington warned that it would continue to accelerate enforcement of sanctions on Iran's petroleum and petrochemical sales so long as Tehran continues to accelerate its nuclear program. Anyone involved in such sales and transactions should stop immediately if they wish to avoid being subjected to US sanctions, he said. The US Treasury Department also slapped sanctions on a network of companies involved in what it said was the sale of hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Iranian petrochemical and petroleum products to South and East Asia. The action targeted Iranian brokers and front companies in the United Arab Emirates, Hong Kong and India, the Treasury said.
These sanctions are expected to be part a broader plan to step up sanctions on Tehran in coming weeks, as the prospects of reviving the nuclear pact have dimmed. The US sanctions include Iran’s oil sector and countries that are involve in oil trade with Tehran. However, some countries like China were able to evade these sanctions by hiding the source of its oil imports. Separately, the Biden administration’s negotiations with Iran over a revamped version of the 2015 nuclear deal have hit a dead end, jeopardizing the likelihood of a new agreement, senior US officials informed Congress during a classified briefing.
“Two weeks ago, they thought they had a deal, and now they know they don’t have a deal, and are stymied about how they get to a deal because they’ve negotiated all there was to negotiate, and, at the end of the day, Iran doesn’t want the deal that was negotiated,” Rep. Darrell Issa told the Washington Free Beacon. “We’ve negotiated for a year and a half through our good friend and honest broker Russia and we got the same thing that we should have expected, which is, they want a better deal than they had before, and if you don’t give them a better deal, then they don’t want a deal,” Issa added. “They’re basically on the eve of getting a nuclear weapon and don’t want to be talked out of it.” State Department spokesman Ned Price confirmed earlier this week that negotiations with Iran “are not in a healthy place right now.” “We’ve made clear that while we have been sincere and steadfast in our efforts to see to it that Iran is once again permanently and verifiably barred from a nuclear weapon, we haven’t seen the Iranian government make the decision that it would need to make if it were to commit to a mutual return to compliance with the nuclear deal,” Price said. Some lawmakers accuse the administration of issuing contradictive statements in this regard despite reaching a dead end. Sources in the Congress told Asharq Al-Awsat that Democrats and Republicans are pressuring the White House to announce a stop to negotiations, amid protests over the death of a woman in police custody. They affirmed that taking a firm stance in this issue will be considered a clear support for Iranian protesters, especially if it coincides with lifting sanctions on Tehran and allowing it to have access to funds it will use to support terrorism in Tehran and abroad. Issa said that Iranians wanted concessions to their terrorism-linked sanctions, which is a demand neither Republicans nor Democrats will allow.

Iran Targets Celebrities, Media over Mahsa Amini Protests
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 30 September, 2022
Iran stepped up pressure on celebrities and journalists Thursday over the wave of women-led protests sparked by outrage over the death of Mahsa Amini, after she was arrested by the Iranian republic's morality police. Filmmakers, athletes, musicians and actors have backed the demonstrations, and many saw it as a signal when the national football team remained in their black tracksuits when the anthems were played before a match in Vienna against Senegal, AFP said. "We will take action against the celebrities who have fanned the flames of the riots," Tehran provincial governor Mohsen Mansouri said, according to the ISNA news agency. Iran's judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei similarly charged that "those who became famous thanks to support from the system have joined the enemy when times are difficult". The warnings came after almost two weeks of protests across Iran and a deadly crackdown that human rights group Amnesty International says has been marked by "ruthless violence by security forces". Oslo-based group Iran Human Rights has reported a death toll of at least 83 people, including children. Public anger flared after Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish woman, died on September 16, three days after her arrest for allegedly breaching Iran's strict rules for women on wearing hijab headscarves and modest clothing. "Woman, Life, Freedom!" protesters have chanted ever since, in Iran's biggest demonstrations in almost three years, in which women have defiantly burned their headscarves and cut their hair. President Ebrahim Raisi warned that, despite "grief and sorrow" over Amini's death, public security "is the red line of the Iranian republic and no one is allowed to break the law and cause chaos".
'No to dictatorship' -
Iran on Thursday slammed "interference" in its internal affairs by France over a statement in support of the protests, having earlier complained to Britain and Norway. Solidarity protests with Iranian women have been held worldwide, and rallies are planned in 70 cities Saturday. One protest erupted in Afghanistan's capital Kabul, where women rallied outside Iran's embassy with banners that read: "Iran has risen, now it's our turn!" and "From Kabul to Iran, say no to dictatorship!" Forces of the ruling hardline Taliban fired their guns into the air to disperse the crowd, then swiftly snatched the banners and tore them up, an AFP correspondent reported. Iran on Thursday arrested the reporter Elahe Mohammadi, who had covered Amini's funeral, her lawyer said, the latest of a growing number of journalists to be detained. Police have also arrested journalist Niloufar Hamedi of the reformist Shargh daily, who went to the hospital where Amini lay in a coma and helped expose the case to the world. The Committee to Protect Journalists said Thursday that three additional journalists -- Farshid Ghorbanpour, Aria Jaffari and Mobin Balouch -- had been arrested, bringing the total behind bars to 28. Intelligence officers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps arrested 50 members of "an organized network" behind the "riots" in the holy Shiite city of Qom, the Guards said, according to Fars news agency.
Push for EU sanctions -
London-based Amnesty International criticized Iran's "widespread patterns of unlawful use of force and ruthless violence by security forces".It said this included the use of live ammunition and metal pellets, heavy beatings and sexual violence against women, all "under the cover of deliberate ongoing internet and mobile disruptions"."Dozens of people, including children, have been killed so far and hundreds injured," said the group's secretary general Agnes Callamard. Fars news agency has said "around 60" people had been killed. Iran has blamed outside forces for the protests and on Wednesday launched cross-border missile and drone strikes that killed 13 people in Iraq's Kurdistan region, accusing armed groups based there of fueling the unrest. The US on Thursday said one of its citizens had been killed in the Iranian strikes, separately announcing the fresh enforcement of sanctions on Tehran's oil sales. Iran's economy is already hit by punishing sanctions over its contested nuclear program. On Thursday, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said she was "doing everything" she could to push for European Union sanctions against those "beating women to death and shooting demonstrators in the name of religion".
The Iranian government has sought to play down the crisis. Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said he told Western diplomats at recent UN meetings that the protests were "not a big deal" for the stability of the clerical state. "There is not going to be regime change in Iran," he told National Public Radio in New York on Wednesday. "Don't play to the emotions of the Iranian people."

US Confirms Death of American Citizen in Iran’s Attacks on Iraqi Kurdistan
Riyadh - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 30 September, 2022
The United States Department of State has confirmed that an American citizen was killed in Iranian missile and drone attacks on Wednesday that struck areas in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq. “We can confirm that a US citizen was killed as a result of a rocket attack in the Iraqi Kurdistan region,” State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said on Thursday. Citing privacy laws, he declined further details. But he reiterated US denunciations of the strikes. Washington also affirmed on Wednesday that no American officials were injured in the attacks in Erbil’s vicinities that left 13 people dead and 58 wounded. The Iran International news website said the citizen was Omar Mahmoudzadeh and published a photo of his American passport, which showed that he was born in 1963.

Amnesty: Iran ordered forces to 'severely confront' protests
Associated Press/Friday, 30 September, 2022
Leaked government documents show that Iran ordered its security forces to "severely confront" antigovernment demonstrations that broke out earlier this month, Amnesty International said Friday.
The London-based rights group said security forces have killed at least 52 people since protests over the death of a woman detained by the morality police began nearly two weeks ago, including by firing live ammunition into crowds and beating protesters with batons.
It says security forces have also beaten and groped female protesters who remove their headscarves to protest the treatment of women by Iran's theocracy. The state-run IRNA news agency meanwhile reported renewed violence in the city of Zahedan, near the borders with Pakistan and Afghanistan. It said gunmen opened fire and hurled firebombs at a police station, setting off a battle with police.
It said police and passersby were wounded, without elaborating, and did not say whether the violence was related to the antigovernment protests. The region has seen previous attacks on security forces claimed by militant and separatist groups.
Videos circulating on social media showed gunfire and a police vehicle on fire. Others showed crowds chanting against the government. Video from elsewhere in Iran showed protests in Ahvaz, in the southwest, and Ardabil in the northwest.
The death in custody of Mahsa Amini, who was detained for allegedly wearing the mandatory Islamic headscarf too loosely, has triggered an outpouring of anger at Iran's ruling clerics.
Her family says they were told she was beaten to death in custody. Police say the 22-year-old Amini died of a heart attack and deny mistreating her, and Iranian officials say her death is under investigation. Iran's leaders accuse hostile foreign entities of seizing on her death to foment unrest against the Islamic Republic and portray the protesters as rioters, saying a number of security forces have been killed.
Amnesty said it obtained a leaked copy of an official document saying that the General Headquarters of the Armed Forces ordered commanders on Sept. 21 to "severely confront troublemakers and anti-revolutionaries." The rights group says the use of lethal force escalated later that evening, with at least 34 people killed that night alone. It said another leaked document shows that, two days later, the commander in Mazandran province ordered security forces to "confront mercilessly, going as far as causing deaths, any unrest by rioters and anti-Revolutionaries," referring to those opposed to Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, which brought the clerics to power.
"The Iranian authorities knowingly decided to harm or kill people who took to the streets to express their anger at decades of repression and injustice," said Agnes Callamard, Amnesty International's Secretary General.
"Amid an epidemic of systemic impunity that has long prevailed in Iran, dozens of men, women and children have been unlawfully killed in the latest round of bloodshed."Amnesty did not say how it acquired the documents. There was no immediate comment from Iranian authorities. Iranian state TV has reported that at least 41 protesters and police have been killed since the demonstrations began Sept. 17. An Associated Press count of official statements by authorities tallied at least 14 dead, with more than 1,500 demonstrators arrested. The New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists said Thursday that at least 28 reporters have been arrested. Iranian authorities have severely restricted internet access and blocked access to Instagram and WhatsApp, popular social media applications that are also used by the protesters to organize and share information. That makes it difficult to gauge the extent of the protests, particularly outside the capital, Tehran. Iranian media have only sporadically covered the demonstrations. Iranians have long used virtual private networks and proxies to get around the government's internet restrictions. Shervin Hajipour, an amateur singer in Iran, recently posted a song on Instagram based on tweets about Amini that received more than 40 million views in less than 48 hours before it was taken down.

Exiled for decades, Iranian Kurds in Iraq come under fresh fire
Agence France Presse/Friday, 30 September, 2022
When Iranian strikes came crashing on northern Iraq's Kurdistan region, nurse Rezane Hassan rushed to the scene to help the victims, never imagining that her own fiancé would be one of them. "We left in an ambulance towards the affected sites," said the 22-year-old nurse, who works at a hospital in a refugee neighborhood of the Iraqi city of Koysinjaq, where Iranian Kurds have lived for decades. "We evacuated women and children to get them away from the bombed areas."Then, it struck her that her fiance, Mohamed, a fighter in the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI), had been in the area. "I called, he didn't answer," she said, her face bearing the signs of grief. "I kept calling, someone answered telling me (Mohamed) couldn't answer because he was driving," she continued. "I knew he was lying."As Iran has been gripped by nationwide protests over the death of a Kurdish woman in the custody of the feared morality police, the Revolutionary Guards launched a barrage of strikes on Wednesday targeting Iranian Kurdish groups based in northern Iraq, accusing them of stoking unrest back home. Protests erupted in Iran on September 16 over the death of Mahsa Amini, 22, who died in custody after she was arrested for allegedly violating the country's strict dress code. The strikes have killed at least 14 people, including a pregnant woman, while at least 58 others have been wounded, mostly civilians, according to Iraqi Kurdish counter-terrorism forces. Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region is home to several Iranian Kurdish rebel groups, including the KDPI, which had led an insurgency against the Iranian authorities since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, and continues to oppose them from exile. While combat activities have greatly declined over the years, these groups have continued to mobilize on social media, playing a key role in circulating images of the protests in the aftermath of Amini's death.
Iran vows continued strikes
Dressed in black at her parents' home, Hassan receives fellow mourners offering their condolences over Mohamed's death. Seated next to her, Hassan's mother doesn't hold back her tears. Nearby, her father scrolls through photos of their engagement party on his phone. In one, the couple is smiling and holding hands, Mohamed clad in traditional Kurdish dress. In another, a rifle is slung over his shoulder as the happy couple appears dressed in fatigues. Iran's Revolutionary Guards vowed on Thursday to keep up its strikes in Iraq, accusing the Iranian Kurdish groups based here of "attacking and infiltrating Iran... to sow insecurity and riots, and spread unrest."Arched over on a sofa, Qadir Bapiry wiped away tears with a crumpled handkerchief as he attended a ceremony in Koysinjaq for his friend Osman, another KDPI fighter killed in the Iranian strikes. When the strikes hit, Bapiry was in his home, close to the party's headquarters. He managed to escape unharmed, but his house was destroyed. "I heard a strong blast. I told the children 'they bombed us', then a second strike landed near the house," recounted the man in his 70s.
- 'Fear is over' -
In 2018, 15 people were killed in Iranian missile strikes targeting KDPI offices in Koysinjaq. Kamil Khafori, a fighter in the group, has been exiled in Iraq for 18 years. "As (Kurdish) people, we don't have any rights in Iran," he said. "Writing in our language is banned. Kurds can't speak their language."With an assault rifle by his side, Khafori sits cross-legged on the floor dressed in fatigues, unabashedly expressing support for the protests in Iran. "I hope the protests will continue," the 43-year-old said. "Their continuation will guarantee the fall" of the clerical authorities in Iran, he added.
"The fear is over."
One of the strikes on Koysinjaq -- also known as Koya, east of the Iraqi Kurdish capital Arbil -- hit a school attended by Iranian exiles, according to the United Nations children's fund. "At least two children were injured and one pregnant woman was killed, according to initial reports," UNICEF said in a Wednesday statement. The pregnant woman suffered internal bleeding before dying from her injuries, the Kurdish news website Rudaw said.
Her child was delivered, only to pass away the following day, according to local authorities.

US calls on Israel to investigate death of Palestinian boy
Associated Press/Friday, 30 September, 2022
The U.S. State Department is calling on Israel to open a "thorough" investigation into the mysterious death of a 7-year-old Palestinian boy who collapsed and died on Thursday, shortly after Israeli soldiers came to his home in the occupied West Bank. Relatives said Rayan Suleiman had no previous health problems and accused the army of scaring the child to death. The army called the death a tragedy and said its soldiers were not to blame. The incident added to the rising tensions in the West Bank, where Israeli troops have been conducting daily arrest raids that have frequently escalated into deadly violence in recent months. Earlier in the day, young Palestinian village boys were seen throwing stones at cars driving on a highway near the Israeli settlement of Tekoa, which lies close to the Palestinian city of Bethlehem. Later, relatives said that soldiers banged on the door and wanted to arrest Rian's older brothers for alleged stone throwing.
Mohammed Suleiman, a 22-year-old cousin, said Rayan was shrieking in fear at sight of the soldiers and his parents shouted, "come here," to calm him down. He said after the soldiers left, the boy collapsed. He said Rayan had been healthy. The boy's father, Yasser Suleiman, said Rayan tried to run away when the soldiers said they wanted to arrest his brothers and was briefly chased by the soldiers. He said Rayan was vomiting blood in the car after collapsing and was pronounced dead at the hospital. "He was martyred from the fear of them," the father told Palestine TV. Lt. Col. Richard Hecht, a military spokesman, said a senior officer on the scene went to the house after spotting one of the stone throwers on a balcony and told the father to make the children stop throwing stones at motorists. He said the officer spoke in a "very calm manner" and left. "There was no violence, no entry into the house," Hecht said.
In Washington, the State Department's deputy spokesman, Vedant Patel, said the United States was "heartbroken to learn of the death of an innocent Palestinian child.""We support a thorough and immediate investigation into the circumstances surrounding the child's death," Patel said.
Hecht said the investigation was continuing.
Palestinians and human rights groups say the army is incapable of investigating wrongdoing by its forces and that soldiers are rarely held accountable. Palestinian social media were awash with photos of Rayan superimposed over the golden Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem, with Palestinians declaring him a "martyr" and condemning Israel for his death. The official Palestinian news agency Wafa headlined its report "the death of a child while being chased," in effect blaming Israel for the death. The boy was scheduled to be buried on Friday, when Palestinian demonstrators often clash with Israeli soldiers.
The funeral comes at a time of rising violence in the West Bank. On Wednesday, four Palestinians were killed and 44 wounded during an Israeli military raid in the northern West Bank town of Jenin. It was the deadliest episode since Israel launched its crackdown earlier this year. Israel has been conducting nightly arrest raids, primarily in the northern West Bank, since a series of deadly Palestinian attacks in Israel last spring. Dozens of Palestinians have been killed, making this the deadliest year in the occupied territory since 2015. Most of the dead have been wanted militants who opened fire, or youths who threw firebombs or stones at soldiers entering their neighborhoods. But several civilians who were not involved in any violence have also died. Israel captured the West Bank in the 1967 Middle East war. The Palestinians seek the territory, now home to about 500,000 Israeli settlers, as the heartland of a future independent state.

Ignoring Iraqi Protest, Iran Continues Bombing Kurdistan Region Villages
Baghdad - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 30 September, 2022
Iranian artillery on Thursday resumed attacking civilian sites north of the city of Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan.
The renewed Iranian shelling hit the Sidekan sub-district of the Soran region. “The attack targeted the Saqar and Barzini regions in Sidekan,” said Ihsan Shalabi, Sidekan’s mayor. “It did not result in casualties or injuries among civilians,” noted Shalabi. Iraqi Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ahmed al-Sahaf had announced on Wednesday that the ministry will summon the Iranian ambassador to Baghdad to hand him a strongly worded protest note due to the continuous bombing of areas in the Kurdistan region. A day after al-Sahaf’s announcement, the ministry released a statement that affirmed it summoned Ambassador Mohammad Kadhim Al Sadiq and handed him a “strongly worded note of protest.” “The strongly worded message included the Iraqi government’s condemnation, which represented the continuation of Iranian forces’ encroachment on Iraq’s sovereignty,” the statement said, adding that Iranian attacks targeting Iraqi civilians cannot be tolerated. In the statement, the ministry demanded that Iran respects Iraqi sovereignty and commitments made to international covenants. It also affirmed that Iranian attacks threaten to destabilize the region. The Kurdistan Region Parliament also expressed its condemnation of the attacks. “Iranian shelling is repeatedly targeting the governorates of Erbil and Sulaymaniyah under the pretext of the presence of Iranian-Kurdish opposition parties,” explained the Parliament. “On behalf of the Kurdistan Parliament, we strongly condemn the attacks and bombardment, and they cannot continue under any pretext or justification,” said Kurdistan Parliament Deputy Speaker Hemin Hawrami. Hawrami voiced Iraqi Kurdistan’s desire for serious relations with neighboring countries. But he stressed that those relations must abide by international covenants, principles of good neighborliness, non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries and mutual respect for territorial sovereignty. The deputy speaker stressed the importance of not using Iraqi Kurdistan territory as a launching pad for attacks against neighboring countries. Hawrami also called on the federal government and the international community to take serious positions on Iran’s ongoing violation.

UK's PM: Putin Cannot Alter International Borders Using 'Brute Force'
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 30 September, 2022
Britain will never accept the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as "anything other than Ukrainian territory" Prime Minister Liz Truss said, adding that Russian President Vladimir Putin was violating international law. "Putin cannot be allowed to alter international borders using brute force. We will ensure he loses this illegal war," Truss said in a statement on Friday. "Putin has, once again, acted in violation of international law with clear disregard for the lives of the Ukrainian people he claims to represent", reported AFP. Later on Friday, Putin is due to proclaim Russia's rule over around 15% of Ukraine, the biggest annexation in Europe since Hitler. Russia has held what it called referendums in occupied areas of Ukraine. Western governments and Kyiv said the votes breached international law and were coercive and non-representative. Truss also spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy earlier this week to say Britain would never recognize Russian attempts to annex its territory. "The UK will never ignore the sovereign will of those people and we will never accept the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as anything other than Ukrainian territory," Truss said in her statement on Friday.

Kremlin: Any Attack on Annexed Territory Will be an Attack on Russia
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 30 September, 2022
The Kremlin said on Friday that attacks against any part of the swathe of Ukraine that President Vladimir Putin was about to annex would be considered aggression against Russia itself, adding that Russia would fight to take the whole of the Donbas region. President Vladimir Putin is due to proclaim the annexation of more than 15% of Ukraine on Friday, escalating his seven-month war and taking it into an unpredictable new phase. Moscow is declaring Ukraine's Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, largely or partly occupied by Russian or Russian-backed forces, to be part of Russia.
Asked by reporters if an attack by Ukraine on the territories Russia is claiming as its land would be considered an attack on Russia, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "It would not be anything else."Russia is moving to annex the regions after holding what it called referendums in the occupied areas of Ukraine. Western governments and Kyiv said the hastily organized votes breached international law and were coercive and wholly unrepresentative. While Russia controls almost all of Luhansk, claimed by Russian-backed separatists as the Luhansk People's Republic, it has control of only around 60% of the Donetsk region. The self-styled separatist Donetsk People's Republic, backed by Russia, claims the whole of Ukraine's Donetsk province. Asked what would happen to the territory not under Russian control, Peskov said: "It is to be liberated."According to Reuters, he said the whole of the Donetsk region would become part of Russia. Luhansk and Donetsk, with a combined population of about 6 million before the invasion, are collectively known as the Donbas, a mostly Russian-speaking center of coal mining and heavy industry until their economies were wrecked by the fighting from 2014 onwards.
The conflict in eastern Ukraine began in 2014 after a pro-Russian president was toppled in Ukraine's Maidan Revolution and Russia annexed Crimea.

Putin accuses West of 'explosions' that caused Nord Stream leaks
Agence France Presse/Friday, 30 September, 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday accused the West of organizing blasts that resulted in multiple gas leaks on the Nord Stream gas pipelines from Russia to Europe. "Sanctions are not enough for the West, they have switched to sabotage. Unbelievable, but it is a fact!" Putin said during a televised speech at a Kremlin ceremony to annex four Moscow-occupied regions of Ukraine. "By organizing explosions on the Nord Stream international gas pipelines that run along the bottom of the Baltic Sea they actually started destroying European energy infrastructure," Putin said. "It is clear to everyone who benefits from this," Putin added, without providing further details. Unexplained gas leaks, preceded by two explosions, occurred on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines on Monday. Moscow and Washington both denied involvement in the incident. The Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines have been shrouded in political tensions since the Kremlin sent troops to Ukraine in February. Russia cut gas supplies to Europe in suspected retaliation against Western sanctions, but the pipelines still contained gas though they were not operational.

Zelensky 'won't negotiate' with Putin, requests accelerated NATO membership
Agence France Presse/Friday, 30 September, 2022
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday that Kyiv is requesting fast-track NATO membership after Russia formally annexed four Moscow-held regions of Ukraine. "We have already proven our compatibility with (NATO) alliance standards," Zelensky said in a video posted by the Ukrainian presidency on social media. "We are taking a decisive step by signing Ukraine's application for accelerated accession to NATO," he added. He also said that Kyiv would not negotiate with Russia -- which sent troops into Ukraine on February 24 -- as long as President Vladimir Putin was in power. "Ukraine will not hold any negotiations with Russia as long as Putin is the president of the Russian Federation. We will negotiate with the new president," Zelensky said. His remarks come after Putin signed treaties to annex four Moscow-occupied Ukrainian regions -- Donetsk, Kherson, Lugansk and Zaporizhzhia -- at a grand ceremony in the Kremlin. The pro-Kremlin leaders of the annexed territories claimed the regions voted in favor of becoming part of Russia in referendums that Western capitals and international organizations did not recognize.

Erdogan: Turkish Intelligence Contacts with Damascus will Determine 'Ties Roadmap'
Ankara - Saeed Abdul Razzak/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 30 September, 2022
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that his country’s contacts with the Syrian regime were currently limited to the intelligence service, based on which Türkiye would set the road map for its relations with Damascus. Erdogan repeated the threat of a military operation in northern Syria, calling on Russia and the United States to implement the understandings signed with his country in 2019, which stipulate clearing the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, the largest component of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), from within 30 km (19 miles) of its border. In a television interview on Wednesday evening, Erdogan said that the Turkish intelligence service was holding talks in Damascus, based on which Türkiye would determine its road map. Turkish and Western reports said that the head of the Turkish intelligence, Hakan Fidan, held a series of talks with the head of the Syrian National Security Office, Ali Mamlouk, in Damascus, following similar meetings in Moscow and Tehran. Turkish media stated that the meetings discussed the conditions offered by both sides, and the means to draw up a “road map for the safe return of Syrians in Türkiye to their country.”Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin said last week that there were currently no plans to conduct contacts at the political or diplomatic level with the Syrian regime. For his part, Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal al-Miqdad told Russian Sputnik agency that no communication was taking place at the level of the two foreign ministries. He added that his country considered the Astana process as the only path for a political solution. Meanwhile, Erdogan renewed his threat to launch a Turkish military operation in northern Syria, which he had previously announced in May, saying that it would include SDF positions in Manbij and Tal Rifaat. He stressed the need for the SDF to withdraw 30 kilometers south of the Turkish border, in line with the understandings with Russia and the United States, based on which Türkiye halted the Spring of Peace military operation in October 2019.

Kuwait Elections Make Significant Changes
Kuwait - Merza al-Khuwaldi/Friday, 30 September, 2022
The unofficial results of Kuwait’s parliamentary elections, which were announced in the early hours of Friday, showed that the Change movement had swept the National Assembly, by winning more than half of the 50 parliamentary seats. The voter turnout reached around 50 percent across the country, while the fifth electoral constituency saw a higher turnout. Two women won in Friday’s elections, namely, Alia al-Khaled (second district) and former Minister Jenan Boushehri (third district). There was high optimism following a speech by the Kuwaiti crown prince, who called for change and pledged to prevent the government from interfering with the voting process or choosing a speaker for the National Assembly. This comes after nearly two years of conflict between the previous parliament and successive governments. The government has adopted a set of measures to prevent vote buying and limit the influence of tribes, by fighting by-elections, as well as registering voters based on the civil ID. Deputies representing the Islamic Constitutional Movement - Hadas (Muslim Brotherhood) succeeded in reaching the assembly. Those included: Osama Issa Al-Shaheen (first constituency), Hamad Muhammad Al-Matar (second district), and Abdulaziz Al-Saqabi (third constituency). The Salafist movement achieved a remarkable presence with the return of MP Muhammad Hayef to the Council after his loss in the previous session, along with the victory of Adel Al-Damkhi, Fahd Al-Masoud and Hamad Al-Obeid.
The entire Bloc of Five, consisting of Hassan Gohar, Abdullah Al-Mudhaf, Badr Al-Mulla, Muhalhal Al-Mudhaf, and Muhannad Al-Sayer, also won with a high number of votes in their constituencies. About nine Shiite deputies, distributed in various electoral districts and political blocs, won in the elections, including two independents, Osama Al-Zayd and Jenan Boushehri. Former National Assembly Speaker Ahmed Al-Saadoun achieved a landslide victory, obtaining more than 12,200 votes in the third constituency - the highest percentage in the country. Al-Saadoun, 87, is a veteran parliamentarian who has been a member of the National Assembly since 1975. He has won all the elections organized in Kuwait since that year. Kuwait consists of five constituencies, each with ten representatives. The number of eligible voters is about 796,000.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 30- October 01/2022
Russia Expanding Its Influence in Latin America
Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/September 30, 2022
Of particular concern is that Russia has not only been strengthening its relations with old Latin American partners -- such as Cuba and Nicaragua, hailing back to the Cold War, and with Venezuela -- but that it is now forging new and stronger relationships with countries that were traditionally oriented towards the US, such as Brazil and Argentina.
"Recent demonstrations of Russia's hostile intent toward the U.S. and our partners in the Western Hemisphere include Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov's January 2022 suggestion that Russia might deploy military forces to Venezuela or Cuba... and Nicaragua's June 2022 re-authorization for limited numbers of Russian troops and equipment to enter the country for training missions and other forms of support." — Dr. Evan Ellis, research professor of Latin American studies at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute and senior associate at the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Western Hemisphere, July 20, 2022.
Russia's actions in Latin America have been significantly deteriorating the security situation there, as well as enabling China to gain influence.
In June, Putin and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro confirmed their intention to strengthen their strategic partnership.
"In 2020, Russia Today (RT)'s Spanish-language media outlets more than doubled their social media followers from 7 million to over 18 million. These disinformation campaigns are just one part of Russia's broader efforts to influence national elections throughout the region this year. Russia's relationship with its key regional partners— Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua—allow Moscow to expand its air and sea access to project military power throughout the region." — General Laura Richardson, Commander of U.S. Southern Command, testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, March 8, 2022.
"Agreements with Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Brazil allow Russian warships to make port calls on short notice. Russia doubled its naval deployments in this region, increasing from five (2008-2014), to 11 (2015- 2020). Russia seeks inroads in the hemisphere by providing security training through $2.3 billion in weapons and military equipment sales in the last 10 years, to include direct sales to Venezuela." — Gen. Laura Richardson, testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, March 8, 2022.
While 21 Latin American and Caribbean countries have signed onto China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Biden's Build Back Better World, launched in June 2021 to counter China, has not even taken off yet. Unlike the BRI, financed by the People's Republic of China, Build Back Better has to rely on private investors' willingness to take risks.
So far, Biden has nothing to show... while Russia and China continue to consolidate their gains.
"Recent demonstrations of Russia's hostile intent toward the U.S. and our partners in the Western Hemisphere include Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov's January 2022 suggestion that Russia might deploy military forces to Venezuela or Cuba..." — Dr. Evan Ellis, research professor of Latin American studies at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. Pictured: Venezuelan and Russian military personnel at a ceremony for the arrival of two Russian Air Force Tu-160 strategic bombers in Venezuela, on December 10, 2018. (Image source: RT video screenshot)
Russia has been seeking to expand its influence in Latin America, especially since Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine and Russia's subsequent international isolation.
Russia's way of enlarging its influence in Latin America is comparable to its tactics in Africa, where it has primarily sought influence through arms deals, the use of its mercenaries, election interference, and disinformation.
As early as March 2015, General John Kelly, U.S. Marine Corps Commander, testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee, saying:
"Periodically since 2008, Russia has pursued an increased presence in Latin America through propaganda, military arms and equipment sales, counterdrug agreements, and trade. Under President [Vladimir] Putin, however, we have seen a clear return to Cold War-tactics. As part of its global strategy, Russia is using power projection in an attempt to erode U.S. leadership and challenge U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere."
While Russia's engagement in Latin America is not comparable in volume to that of China, Russia has, in recent years, nevertheless been significantly deepening its influence in Latin America. Of particular concern is that Russia has not only been strengthening its relations with old Latin American partners -- such as Cuba and Nicaragua, hailing back to the Cold War, and with Venezuela -- but that it is now forging new and stronger relationships with countries that were traditionally oriented towards the US, such as Brazil and Argentina.
Putin, just before he invaded Ukraine, met with the presidents of both Brazil and Argentina, while signing a security cooperation agreement with Venezuela.
Ryan C. Berg, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) wrote in March:
"All of this is reminiscent of when Russia's then-president Dmitri Medvedev made an improvised visit to the region during the 2008 crisis in Georgia—all intended to demonstrate that Russia was not isolated internationally. Russian aggression in Europe is usually followed by military escalation in Latin America, as when it sent Tu-160 (nuclear-capable) military bombers to Venezuela for exercises in 2008, 2013, and 2018."
Dr. Evan Ellis, research professor of Latin American studies at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute and senior associate at the Americas Program at CSIS, testified before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Western Hemisphere in July:
"Recent demonstrations of Russia's hostile intent toward the U.S. and our partners in the Western Hemisphere include Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov's January 2022 suggestion that Russia might deploy military forces to Venezuela or Cuba, Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov's February 2022 signing of a pact to increase military cooperation with Venezuela, and Nicaragua's June 2022 re-authorization for limited numbers of Russian troops and equipment to enter the country for training missions and other forms of support....
"Finally, while the hosting of Russian military activities has been exclusive to anti-U.S. authoritarian regimes, the willingness of some others to support and engage with Russia has been troubling. The primary examples include the symbolic and rhetorical support that the governments of Alberto Fernandez in Argentina and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil gave to Vladimir Putin, each while visiting him as his military stood poised to invade the Ukraine. Alberto Fernandez went so far as to offer his Argentine government as the 'gateway' for Russia's entry into Latin America. Mexico's Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has called NATO's military aid to help Ukraine fight Russian aggression 'immoral.'"
In February, Argentina's President Alberto Fernandez made it clear that his country would be happy to exchange its orientation towards the US for Russian cooperation. He told Putin:
"We could be a venue for the development of your cooperation with Latin American nations... Since the 1990s, Argentina has been strongly oriented towards the United States. Argentina and its economy are largely dependent on the US and our relations with it. In fact, our debt to the IMF also emerged because of this relationship... I am consistently working to rid Argentina of this dependence on the IMF and the US. I want Argentina to open up new opportunities. Cooperation with Russia is vital for us. I would like to assure you, and I hope that you will accept my assurances that we do want to develop cooperation with Russia."
In June, Putin and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro confirmed their intention to strengthen their strategic partnership.
In March, General Laura J. Richardson, Commander of U.S. Southern Command, testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee that Russia's actions in Latin America have been significantly deteriorating the security situation there, as well as enabling China to gain influence:
"Russia intensifies instability through its ties with Venezuela, entrenchment in Cuba and Nicaragua, and extensive disinformation operations. Transnational criminal organizations (TCOs), which operate nearly uncontested, and blaze a trail of corruption and violence that create conditions that allow the PRC [People's Republic of China] and Russia to exploit, threaten citizen security, and undermine public confidence in government institutions."
Richardson went on to say that Russia is a significantly destabilizing factor in Latin America:
"Russia continues to destabilize the region and undermine democracy by flooding the region with disinformation, to include hundreds of articles distorting U.S. security actions. In 2020, Russia Today (RT)'s Spanish-language media outlets more than doubled their social media followers from 7 million to over 18 million. These disinformation campaigns are just one part of Russia's broader efforts to influence national elections throughout the region this year. Russia's relationship with its key regional partners— Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua—allow Moscow to expand its air and sea access to project military power throughout the region. Agreements with Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Brazil allow Russian warships to make port calls on short notice. Russia doubled its naval deployments in this region, increasing from five (2008-2014), to 11 (2015- 2020). Russia seeks inroads in the hemisphere by providing security training through $2.3 billion in weapons and military equipment sales in the last 10 years, to include direct sales to Venezuela."
Russia's growing influence in Latin America must be seen in conjunction with China's immense influence in the region, where it is already the largest trade partner, except for Mexico, as well as the largest investor. While 21 Latin American and Caribbean countries have signed onto China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Biden's Build Back Better World, which was launched in June 2021 as a means of countering China, has not even taken off yet. Unlike the BRI, which is financed by the People's Republic of China, Build Back Better mainly has to rely on private investors' willingness to take risks.
According to research scientist Ammar A. Malik, who heads AidData's Chinese Development Finance Program:
"This is not the first time that expectation has been built, but it's going to be quite challenging to get private companies to finance (projects) because at the end of the day, they're accountable to their shareholders and they want projects that are bankable,"
The combination of Chinese and Russian influence operations in Latin America amount to a considerable threat against US interests in the region.
The safety of the United States is "directly linked to resilience, stability, and security of our Latin American and Caribbean partners," according to General Richardson.
Despite this, "the United States has deprioritized and underinvested in the Western Hemisphere for decades," according to Ryan Berg from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"China and Russia support illiberal regimes throughout the hemisphere, such as Venezuela, that compound regional security challenges and hold back political transitions toward democracy."
Biden, while campaigning for the presidency in March 2020, in response to the question of whether China's growing influence in Latin America is a threat to U.S. national security, pledged to restore American leadership to the region.
"It is the current absence of American leadership in the Western Hemisphere that is the primary threat to U.S. national security. Russia and China can't match our extraordinary ties and common history with the people of Latin America and the Caribbean."
So far, Biden has nothing to show for those words, while Russia and China continue to consolidate their gains.
*Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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Iran: The Chained Volcano
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/September, 30/2022
“The white giant in chains!” This is how Bahar, one of Iran’s greatest contemporary poets, describes Mount Damvand, the towering volcano that looms over the horizon in the Tehran region.
At the end of his qasida (ode) Bahar pleads with the volcano to end its silence with an explosion of fire and lava to “cleanse the world of tyranny and corruption”.
For the past two weeks the nationwide uprising across Iran has reminded many Iranians of Bahar’s poem with the question: Has the volcano begun its final eruption?
Today’s Damavand is made of a new generation of Iranians who don’t give tuppence about the Islamic Republic’s arcane narrative, and prefer life in the modern world, warts and all, to the North Korean-style society that “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei is trying to impose on Iran. The uprising was triggered by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year old woman on a family visit to Tehran.
Within 24 hours of her death, allegedly as a result of beatings by security agents, Mahsa Amini’s name was known to almost all Iranians and, within 48 hours, it had become a symbol of resistance to tyranny across the world.
Because of censorship and pressure exerted on journalists, including the few remaining foreign correspondents, in Iran it is hard to gauge the extent of what looks like a nationwide uprising whose core message is: We can’t take it anymore!
By the time of writing this column we had received the names of 84 people, including nine women and six children, killed by security while semi-official figures put the number of arrests at over 1800.
The uprising spread to over 300 towns and cities some of which witnessed protests for the first time in recent history.
But is this the big bang that Bahar begged Damvand to produce?
For the past 43 years, that is to say since mullahs seized power in Tehran, the Iranian volcano has produced numerous eruptions.
On March 8, 1979, that is to say 25 days after Ayatollah Ruhallah Khomeini emerged as the new ruler, over half a million women gathered in Tehran to protest against the imposed “hijab” and other restrictions announced by the mullahs.
Despite brutal repression and mass executions, throughout 1979 to 1988, Iran witnessed other eruptions as various layers of the coalition formed under Khomeini started to peel away. In those years Iran also witnessed massacres by the new regime’s forces in several regions, notably in Khuzestan, Kurdistan and Turkman Sahra.
Since then the Iranian volcano has witnessed over 20 medium or big eruptions, all of them brutally suppressed.
Early in its existence the Khomeinist regime established self-preservation as its highest goal. Khomeini called it “the obligation of obligations” (oujab al-wajebat in Arabic), asserting that to protect the regime even Islam could be set aside.
To protect the regime, the mullahs did two things.
First, they devoted a large chunk of the gross domestic product (gdp) to military-security forces. Best estimates indicate that “protecting the regime” claims 14 percent of the gdp, four times more than allocations for education or health. Regime protection forces, excluding the national army, number over 600,000 men. Islamic security is organized in nine different units, at least four of them trained and equipped for crushing street protests.
All security units, including Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC), benefit from numerous advantages notably salaries that are 30 percent higher than comparable ones in the national army.
They also own or manage over 8,000 businesses and control 25 quays in nine ports from which they can import or export whatever they like without facing customs regulations.
Security forces also get many of the plum jobs.
In fact, over the past five years, as far as filling big jobs is concerned, they have edged ahead of the mullahs. They are also given priority access to university places, housing, health care, consumer goods, foreign travel and scholarships for children studying in Europe or the United States.
Next, the regime created a series of groups dependent on its largesse under such names as “family of martyrs”, “the dispossessed”, “followers of the Imam’s line”, reciters of holy texts (maddahoun in Arabic), and “volunteers for martyrdom”.
To that must be added a network of mullahs and students of theology who receive stipends and/or occasional “gifts” (known as heavy envelopes) from the “Supreme Guide”.
Yet another security ring consists of tens of thousands of expatriate Iranians in Europe and North America who go back and forth, mixing business with pleasure while acting as the regime’s apologists abroad. They are called “double-lifers” (zu-hayatain in Arabic).
How large the regime’s base is remains a matter for speculation.
In the latest presidential election, the regime’s favorite candidate, Ayatollah Dr. Ibrahim Raisi won a quarter of the votes of eligible voters. Former President Hassan Rouhani, a mullah, estimated that around 30 percent of Iranians were happy with the regime and provided its support base.
Whatever the size of the regime’s support base, one thing is sure: it is shrinking. During the current uprising an unexpected number of figures associated with the regime and benefiting from its perks, including an amazing number of celebrities and former Islamist officials, have publicly sided with protesters. Poets who wrote odes in praise of Khomeini or Khamenei and novelists who tried to justify every misdeed of the mullahs have publicly “repented”.
The latest uprising is different from previous ones in a number of ways. It is taking place on a larger scale and bringing together people from all walks of life. It is not limited to corporatist issues such as better wages and working conditions. Nor is it focused on particular grievances such as loss of savings, oppression of non-Islamic religious communities or cultural restrictions. This time, the almost unanimous call is for regime change. This is why the ruling establishment seems to be unable to decide how to cope with the uprising. Some within the regime have called for “merciless repression” while others advise dialogue and reform of certain laws. Until this writing, Khamenei who shed tears for the death of George Floyd in the United States was silent on the eruption that threatened his regime. Even if the latest eruption isn’t the big bang, one thing is certain: The Damavand of Iranian anger is hissing and untamed.

Iran Has Lost Sight of Its Greatest Asset: Women
Firoozeh Dumas/The New York Times/September, 30/2022
Growing up in southern Iran and Southern California, I had the pleasure of having a father who loved to tell stories about his childhood in Iran. Most of his stories were funny, but there was one that always brought him to the brink of tears.
Of course, he never cried; he always changed the subject right at the breaking point. It was the story of his oldest sister, Sedigeh, the smartest sibling in their large family. Because she was a girl, she was married at 16, which was not unusual for Iranian society in the 1930s. Despite her intellectual curiosity, she never had a chance to finish school. My father made it clear to me that he considered this to be a crime. My aunt Sedigeh, now 99 and blind, made the most of her life, raised four successful sons who married strong women and raised successful children. As much as she relished her family, the rest of us wondered what she could have done with her life had she been given the freedom to prosper like her brothers, all of whom became doctors or engineers.
But even my aunt Sedigeh, with all the limitations forced upon her, did not as a young woman have to wear a hijab, the head cover that was made compulsory by the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The hijab has not always been a part of Iranian culture. Pictures of Tehran in the 1960s and ’70s show women wearing Jackie Kennedy-inspired dresses, short sleeves and miniskirts. But more important than their freedom to dress as they wished, Sedigeh’s generation witnessed the rise of women throughout Iranian society, in law, education and medicine, to name a few fields.
At the same time, there were many Iranian women, like many today, who willingly wore the hijab, or even the chador, which covers the entire body but not the face. That was their choice. Once the hijab became government mandated, it no longer sprung from religious belief alone. It became a symbol of a basic human right that had been taken away. In Iran, the punishment imposed on women who defy hijab laws includes arrest, flogging or a prison sentence.
Iranian women today are risking detainment and worse for an unimaginably simple request: the freedom to go outside the house without a head covering.
We all know that Mahsa Amini, the 22-year-old Iranian woman who died after Iran’s morality police detained her for wearing her hijab in an “improper” way, did not die of a heart attack. Since Ms. Amini’s funeral on Sept. 17, demonstrations, led primarily by women, have broken out in cities across Iran. Their grievances aren’t limited to the laws dictating how they dress. The protesters are demanding freedom from all the suffocating strictures imposed by their country’s clerical leadership. These demonstrations feel different from previous uprisings, all of which have been violently squashed by the regime. My aunt Sedigeh, blind but still a seer, said to me yesterday: “When I was a young woman, I had no idea that life was any different anywhere else. This generation knows that they deserve more; they want what I didn’t have. I want that for them, too.”
I am certain that if she could, my aunt Sedigeh would be protesting with them now.
When women are oppressed, no one wins. Iran today is full of educated, capable women who have risen to the top of their fields and whose bodies, paradoxically, are regulated by the government. Regardless of their education or contributions to society, outside their homes, every woman in Iran is at the mercy of the morality police. This is insulting, soul-crushing and not sustainable.
These brave, determined women marching in the streets want the chance to live unencumbered and to regain rights taken by a government that treats them as second-class citizens. Their level of determination, their hunger, can lead to great things. I have no doubt that Iranian women, if given the opportunity to fully become who they are meant to be, could be making even greater contributions to society that would benefit all Iranians. Instead, they are asking not to be killed for showing their hair.
How did Iran get here? I weep for my aunt Sedigeh, who witnessed women rise in Iranian society, only to see their progress erased. Without some kind of compromise on the part of the government, Iran will be headed toward even greater unrest. Women cannot live under these unjust laws forever. Iran’s clerical establishment must recognize that lifting the Islamic dress code is a necessary first step toward greater equality. Extending this most basic of human rights to women is not a complicated issue. The real issue is the mistaken belief that women’s bodies need to be monitored and controlled.
My father, an engineer who helped build Iran’s oil refineries, used to say, “If Iran hadn’t had oil, the country would have truly prospered.” Cursed with natural resources, the country lost sight of its future. Its greatest asset was never under the ground. Iran’s greatest asset is marching in the streets right now.

Is this the End of the Muslim Brotherhood?
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al-Awsat/September, 30/2022
With the passing of yet another Muslim Brotherhood symbol, Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the movement loses one of its key propagandists. With the absence of most of its leaders and its loss of power in the states it had controlled, the Muslim Brotherhood is suffering enormous losses on nearly every level. So, has the movement died with the death of al-Qaradawi? Has the time come to turn the page on the Muslim Brotherhood? The Brotherhood is an extremist political religious group that began as an idea in the new world order that emerged at the beginning of the last century. It brought new political and ideological tides and gave rise to the concept of national states, new regional maps and local identities, and the League of Arab States. The Brotherhood competed with various groups, including the Arab Baath, which was established in the 1940s and took the reins of power in Iraq. It fell when Saddam was at the helm. It was marginalized by Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Another competitor was Communism, which had branches in most Arab states but only ruled southern Yemen, also dissolving into nothing in the world and the region with the USSR’s collapse. There was also Nasserism, Qaddafism, and other individualist leaderships that also disappeared with their leaders’ death, as happened with Maoism and Stalinism. What distinguishes the Muslim Brotherhood from Baathism, communism, and nationalism is that the Brotherhood is a fascist political group founded on the idea of exploiting religion, and therefore, it cannot die.
The Muslim Brotherhood’s danger lies in that it upholds and promotes a romanticized idea of reviving the Islamic State, which never really existed in the past in the picture they paint for their followers. Historically, all Islamic caliphates were family monarchies, ever since the Umayyad State and up until the Ottoman State. The Brotherhood used everyone, and everyone used them. They are often accused of having enjoyed support from the British rule in Cairo when most of the Arab world and Islamic communities were under the British Crown’s rule. Surely, at the time, no partisan project could have emerged without British recognition or support. The British were known to closely follow local developments in their colonies, and some documents mention their interest in the Muslim Brotherhood as a movement since its emergence in the 1930s. It’s said that the first mosque to be built by the Brotherhood in Ismailia received funding from the British-owned Suez Canal company.
It is only natural for London to have done this. For decades, Britain supported every action against its rivals, be it the Turkish, the Nazis, or the Communists. It used the Muslim Brotherhood as a mouthpiece to promote its political rhetoric against communist “atheism” in the region and distributed their leaflets as far as in Indonesia to counter Sukarno. The movement’s ties with Britain are not evidence to be held against them. After all, the Arab League may have been a British suggestion that then-Undersecretary of State for Foreign Affairs Anthony Eden made to Arabs in 1941 to arrange an alliance against Nazi Germany. However, leaving sensitivities about the past aside, even if London hadn’t suggested it, the League was a natural and somewhat inevitable idea in the era of alliances while countries gradually gained their independence. Had the Muslim Brotherhood been a secret office in the British Foreign Office, it would have been easier for the states of the region to close it down, but it is rather a naive, conspiratorial thought. What’s more, the Brotherhood is a fascist religious political group that is capable of emerging in every Islamic country and willing to work with all its opponents, be it the West, Communists, or extremist Shiite groups, if that gets it to power.
It masters propaganda and selling the ideas of democracy, coexistence, and modernism, though these were debunked when the movement took the reins of power in Egypt in 2012. It became clear that the movement is run by extremists, while moderates are only a façade. It emerged as a serial organization, from Sudan to Tunisia, Yemen, and Libya, all the while seeking to stir trouble in other countries, and the danger it poses on the region was exposed when it rushed to link with Iran as soon as it got to power. In Egypt, it gradually turned from an elected party to a totalitarian group by trying to take over posts in the judiciary, general investigation department, police, and media. The Muslim Brotherhood does not die with the death of its leaders or its banning. The Muslim Brotherhood is an idea.

The Iranian drone threat and how to counter it
Luke Coffey/Arab News/October 01/2022
Iran has been stepping up its drone game and devoting considerable resources to a domestic drone program. Some of these drones are armed, others have only a reconnaissance role, some — such as the Mojer-6 drone shot down by an American fighter jet last week over Iraqi Kurdistan — can do both.
Tehran also has an inventory of so-called “suicide drones,” such as the Shahed-136, which are packed with explosives and crashed into a target instead of returning to base. The end result of Tehran’s efforts has been an extensive inventory of drones that has allowed it to project power across the Middle East at a relatively low cost. These drones have also been used by Iran’s proxies across the region, such as the Houthis in Yemen.
Last week’s Iranian drone and missile strikes in northern Iraq were part of a growing trend. Other recent strikes have hit civilian targets in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and last month Iranian drones operated by Tehran’s proxies attacked US forces in Syria. Last October, US and Syrian opposition forces were targeted by a drone attack on Al-Tanf base in southeastern Syria. At least five drones armed with bombs attacked both the US side of the base and the side housing Syrian opposition fighters. Luckily, there were no casualties.
The Iranian drone threat now extends beyond the region, and into Ukraine, where Tehran is now supplying them to Russia. It is no secret that Russian-Iranian military cooperation has been occurring for years. Russia’s stockpile of drones has become increasingly depleted by surprisingly effective Ukrainian air defenses. Also complicating matters for Russia is the impact of international economic sanctions that make importing the required component parts to manufacture drones more challenging. As it becomes more difficult for Russia to replace its battlefield loses in Ukraine, Moscow will lean on Tehran to fill the gap. Always in need of money, and forever dependent on Russian diplomatic support on the global stage, Iran is more than happy to oblige.
Iranian Mojer-6 drones have already been shot down in Ukraine, and last week Ukraine’s main port city of Odesa came under attack by Shahed-136 suicide drones. According to a Ukrainian spokeswoman, “about two dozen” Iranian drones have been spotted in the skies above Ukraine in recent weeks, and at least half were shot down.
The US needs to increase its air defense cooperation with the Gulf states
The Iranian drone threat will not be going away soon. To mitigate its impact, in both the Middle East and Ukraine, three things must be done. First, the US needs to increase its air defense cooperation with the Gulf states. Not only would this counter Iran’s drones, it could also be an important and much needed confidence building measure between regional countries and the White House. It could also jumpstart the proposed Middle East Strategic Alliance concept. This idea was first proposed by the Trump administration as a way to deepen US engagement in the region while increasing burden sharing. For a number of reasons, it never got off the ground. Perhaps the growing aerial threat from the Iranian drone and missile strikes will restore it to the agenda.
Second, more needs to be done to reduce the Iranian drone threat to Ukraine. The US and its allies should be providing more advanced air defense systems to Ukraine, such as the Patriot missile system. While some progress has been made to bolster Ukraine’s air defenses, more can be done. Also, Middle Eastern countries that have a lot of experience dealing with Iranian drones, such as Israel, should be working closely with Kyiv to share intelligence and best practices to defeat these drones.
Finally, the Biden administration and its European allies should pull out of the talks with Iran in Vienna over its nuclear program. It is becoming clear that the Iranians are not really interested in securing a new deal at this time. Also, due to Russia’s war against Ukraine, and the increasing role Iranian drones are playing there, it is inconceivable for the US and Europeans to think that the talks can continue in good faith. A return to robust economic sanctions would also limit Iran’s ability to produce drones.
With the introduction of Iranian drones in the skies above Ukraine, a regional challenge is becoming more global. From Ukraine to the UAE, it is in everyone’s interests that regional air defenses are improved and Iranian aggression is checked.
• Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. Twitter: @LukeDCoffey

Iran’s women can bring about the regime’s downfall
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Arab News/October 01/2022
The Iranian state has tried to squash the country’s protesters with threats. It has tried to crush the demonstrations with violence. We have seen this before, many times in recent years, and the state is well used to inflicting mass killings to maintain its hold on power. This time, however, it does not appear to be working. The protests continue. Led by women, Iranians have taken to the streets across the country — including in rural and religious towns far from Tehran, where some international observers continually claim the regime’s hold on the minds of the people is unshakable.
The women have unveiled themselves, cut their hair ceremonially and openly challenged their clerical masters.
We have already seen how the regime will respond: With violence, subversion and the assumption that the world will do nothing to help Iran’s women as they are beaten, tortured and killed. That assumption is, sadly, almost certainly correct.
But what Iran’s leaders and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may not yet understand is what separates these protests from previous periods of public discontent. Most protest movements in recent years have begun because of economic conditions: High fuel prices, the rising cost of food, etc. Those protest movements inevitably became more political, as any protest movement in a theocratic dictatorship is apt to be.
But these protests are different. They were political — and in favor of radically changing, or even overthrowing, the government — from the first.
The state’s “morality police” murdered Mahsa Amini, the 22-year-old woman whose brutal death sparked the protests. It is against a government that would do such a thing that the people of Iran are protesting.
That has given protests a new character. Rather than being about the expression of public discontent at material conditions — protests aimed at making the state see how the people are suffering — these demonstrations are more existential. When Iran’s women call for the death of the dictator, they are unlikely to be beaten from the streets with batons or driven away by the first volley of gunfire.
The opposite is often true in cases like this. As in the so-called Arab Spring, which grew out of peaceful protests, people who have decided that the regime must fall cannot be made to change their minds by violence.
It is easy enough to convince the people not to risk their lives to lower fuel prices. But when the future of a nation is at risk, people are braver and defy far worse odds. The killing of their friends and compatriots only drives them on: To greater acts of defiance and greater feats of bravery.
Rather than being about the expression of public discontent at material conditions, these demonstrations are more existential
In Sudan at the end of the last decade, another protest movement led by women was able to overturn the decades-long rule of a feared Islamist dictator, Omar Bashir. They did this by mobilizing the whole of society against his rule — being defiant and sympathetic, brave and attentive to wider social concerns.
These are early days for Iran’s protest movement. And much worse is still to come. The Iranian state will react with greater violence than it has so far deployed. Many hundreds of demonstrators are soon likely to be killed. Activists will disappear into prisons and be released as corpses. Individual women leaders will be subjected to awful mistreatment at regime hands.
This is sadly inevitable. It is the only way the Iranian regime knows to react to the popular will.
But if Iran’s women are able to surmount the threat of all of this — to overcome their own justified fears — they might not only liberate themselves from so-called morality police of all sizes, but decisively change the future of their country for the better.
Major reform in Iran is still unlikely. Mainstream politics is in the pocket of the clerics. Reform cannot come that way.
The Revolutionary Guards are a self-sustaining oligarchy in control of most of the country’s economy. They can command hundreds of thousands of armed men into the streets. They have no compunction about killing the innocent.
But if Iran’s women can defy these threats, and urge the men of their country to show the courage they have exemplified, change may yet come to Iran.
It is long overdue and its course will be difficult to follow. But once Iran’s women are set on their own liberation, the future for a theocratic regime built upon the subjugation of women begins to look shakier by the day.
• Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington D.C. and author of “The Rohingyas: Inside Myanmar’s Genocide” (Hurst, 2017). Twitter: @AzeemIbrahimh