English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For November 30/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
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Bible Quotations For today
Jesus Chooses 4 of his Disciples, Peter & Andrew his brother, & James Son Of
Zebedee & His Bother, John
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint
Matthew 04/18-25: “As he walked by the Sea of Galilee, he saw two brothers,
Simon, who is called Peter, and Andrew his brother, casting a net into the lake
for they were fishermen. And he said to them, ‘Follow me, and I will make you
fish for people.’ Immediately they left their nets and followed him. As he went
from there, he saw two other brothers, James son of Zebedee and his brother
John, in the boat with their father Zebedee, mending their nets, and he called
them. Immediately they left the boat and their father, and followed him. Jesus
went throughout Galilee, teaching in their synagogues and proclaiming the good
news of the kingdom and curing every disease and every sickness among the
people. So his fame spread throughout all Syria, and they brought to him all the
sick, those who were afflicted with various diseases and pains, demoniacs,
epileptics, and paralytics, and he cured them. And great crowds followed him
from Galilee, the Decapolis, Jerusalem, Judea, and from beyond the Jordan.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on November
29-30/2022
UN Special Coordinator calls for full implementation of Resolution 1701
Lebanese troops called in to halt drug turf war
Report: Mikati to call for cabinet session next week
US ambassador urges president election, says situation not hopeless
Powerful flashfloods wreak havoc in Keserwan and Jbeil
Joint committees convene in key session over capital control law
Jumblat 'understands' Othman amid judicial paralysis
Report: Berri floats name of Pierre Daher to press LF on Franjieh
Mikati says US yet to answer his inquiry about Iranian fuel grant
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on November
29-30/2022
UN Special Coordinator calls for full implementation of Resolution 1701
Lebanese troops called in to halt drug turf war
Report: Mikati to call for cabinet session next week
US ambassador urges president election, says situation not hopeless
Powerful flashfloods wreak havoc in Keserwan and Jbeil
Joint committees convene in key session over capital control law
Jumblat 'understands' Othman amid judicial paralysis
Report: Berri floats name of Pierre Daher to press LF on Franjieh
Mikati says US yet to answer his inquiry about Iranian fuel grant
UN to Vote on Iran's Future on Women's Rights Body in December
Iranian Vice President Rules out Referendum amid Ongoing Protests
Iranian Reporters Grill U.S. Coach And Star At World Cup And It Goes Off The
Rails
U.S. to reinforce NATO's presence 'from the Black to Baltic Seas' - Blinken
Russia's Medvedev warns NATO over supplying Ukraine with Patriot systems
A Russian couple who opposed Putin and the Ukraine war sought asylum in the US.
They were detained for six months.
UNICEF Condemns Violence against Children in Iran Protests
Israeli fire kills three Palestinians in West Bank
Egypt Insists on Withdrawal of Mercenaries from Libya
UN Special Coordinator Warns Oslo Accords Are ‘Slipping Away’
SDF in Syria Wants 'Stronger' US Warning for Türkiye
Biden, Macron Ready to Talk Ukraine, Trade in State Visit
Iraq PM, Iran president vow to fight 'terror'
China Cities under Heavy Policing after Protests
Titles For The
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on November
29-30/2022
Khamenei’s Confession/Nadim Koteich/Asharq Al Awsat/November 29/2022
Musk Must Preserve Twitter’s Most Vital Function/Gearoid Reidy/Bloomberg/Tuesday,
29 November, 2022
China Protestors Call for End to The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Rule/Gordon
G. Chang/Gatestone Institute./November 29, 2022
Pakistan’s New Military Leader and the Gulf/Simon Henderson/The Washington
Institute/November 29, 2022
Netanyahu and Hamas Set to Coexist Uneasily Again/David Pollock/The Washington
Institute/November 29, 2022
on November
29-30/2022
UN Special Coordinator calls for full implementation of
Resolution 1701
Naharnet/November 29, 2022 .
United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon Joanna Wronecka and
Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Mr. Jean-Pierre Lacroix have
briefed the Security Council on the latest report of United Nations
Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on the implementation of Security Council
Resolution 1701 and the situation in Lebanon, the U.N. said in a statement.
The Special Coordinator commended Lebanon and Israel for putting an end to their
maritime boundary dispute and establishing a permanent maritime boundary on 27
October. "This is a historic achievement that could promote security and
stability in the region and generate economic benefits for both countries,"
Wronecka said. While welcoming this progress at the regional level, the Special
Coordinator said more needed to be done internally in Lebanon to address a
multitude of accumulating political and socio-economic crises. She noted in
particular the urgency of prioritizing the election of a new President to end
the vacuum in Lebanon and the formation of a fully functional government.
"Amid a dire socio-economic situation, Lebanese people are expecting nothing
less from their leaders than acting with only national interest and the public
good at heart," the Special Coordinator said. "I reiterate my calls on all
Lebanese political leaders to apply a constructive approach and build bridges so
as to overcome difficulties and disagreements," she added.
Wronecka emphasized the need for fully functional state institutions that are
empowered and able to move forward with the implementation of urgent reforms,
including those required to finalize an agreement with the IMF. "Doing so is
necessary to ensure a more stable and prosperous future for the Lebanese people,
who are sadly the most affected by the prolonged and protracted socio-economic
crisis," the Special Coordinator said.
In line with calls for more empowered and effective state institutions in
Lebanon, the Special Coordinator encouraged the adoption of legislation that
strengthens the independence of the judiciary. She echoed the appeal of the U.N.
Secretary-General to Lebanese authorities to overcome the obstacles impeding the
conclusion of an impartial, thorough and transparent investigation into the
devastating 2020 Beirut Port explosion.
The Special Coordinator acknowledged the tireless efforts of the Lebanese Armed
Forces and other state security institutions to preserve stability and security
in Lebanon under challenging conditions, stressing that they deserve continued
and enhanced international support. Noting the commitment of both Lebanon and
Israel to Resolution 1701, the Special Coordinator recalled that both countries
needed to do more to ensure the full implementation of the resolution for the
sake of long-term peace, security and stability in the region. In conclusion,
the Special Coordinator reiterated the commitment of the United Nations to
continue standing by Lebanon and its people.
Lebanese troops called in to halt drug turf war
Najia Houssari/Arab News/November 29, 2022
Lebanese troops were forced to step in to end the fighting in an area adjoining
the Burj Al-Barajneh camp for Palestinian refugees
Clashes initially broke out when Hassan Jaafar, an alleged Syrian drug dealer
with a Lebanese mother, began arguing with members of a rival family
BEIRUT: Rival drug-dealing families using machine guns and rocket-propelled
grenades brought mayhem to the streets of a southern Beirut neighborhood during
a series of violent clashes on Tuesday. Lebanese troops were forced to step in
to end the fighting in an area adjoining the Burj Al-Barajneh camp for
Palestinian refugees after members of the two families became embroiled in a
dispute over drug trafficking. Clashes initially broke out late on Monday when
Hassan Jaafar, an alleged Syrian drug dealer with a Lebanese mother, began
arguing with members of a rival family living in the same area, known as the
Baalbekien neighborhood. Samir Abu Afash, an official of the Palestine
Liberation Organization and the Fatah movement in Beirut, told Arab News that
Jaafar started “shooting randomly in the direction of the camp” due to a dispute
with other gunmen.
“We feared that something was planned against the camp,” he said. Abu Afash said
that the PLO has pledged not to interfere in Lebanese affairs, or involve
refugee camps in any disputes between the Palestinians and the Lebanese.
“So we contacted the Lebanese army and Hezbollah to stop the clashes. But the
fights continued throughout the night and intermittently until the army
intervened in the morning and entered the haven Jaafar had formed years ago for
his gang and arrested two people. Jaafar remains at large.”
He added: “Hezbollah and the Amal Movement have repeatedly stressed that they do
not provide cover for Jaafar, and when they do intervene, he usually lays low
for a while. Jaafar was able to make a name for himself in the area and managed
to bring in prohibited materials into the camp, including building materials for
example, along with drugs.”The army is believed to have seized stolen items,
including motorcycles, during the raid. Burj Al-Barajneh camp is home to over
35,000 Palestinian refugees, as well as some Syrians and Palestinians who fled
from Syria. Lebanese security forces are combating drug dealers in neighborhoods
adjacent to the camp. According to a security source, dealers and distributors
encourage people from the site to sell their drugs. Havens for drug dealers and
fugitives are common in various Lebanese regions, especially in Hezbollah areas
in the southern suburbs of Beirut and in northern Bekaa, although the party
claims to have nothing to do with them. The problem appears to have worsened in
recent months, with drug dealers even threatening the security services. Lt.
Col. Ibrahim Rashid, head of the regional anti-narcotics office in Tripoli, said
that statistics showed an increase in the numbers of drug addicts and dealers
since 2016. The problem is placing greater strain on Lebanon’s security and
judicial systems, he said. “Drug users pose a threat to the lives of others, as
well as to the security of society in their pursuit of theft, fraud, criminality
and aggression,” he added.
Lebanon North investigative judge Samaranda Nassar told a recent seminar on
Lebanon’s drug problem that rising rates of addiction are leading to an increase
in thefts and murders around the country. “We are confronting new types of drugs
intended for young ages and adolescents, as well as digital drugs that are no
less dangerous than traditional drugs in their effect on confusing the human
brain,” she said.
“Stricter penalties need to be imposed on drug dealers. I am determined to take
appropriate decisions and punish criminals.
Report: Mikati to call for cabinet session next week
Naharnet/November 29, 2022 .
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati will call for a caretaker cabinet session
and the date may be next week, MTV reported on Tuesday. Following talks with
Mikati that tackled the issue of hospitals’ overdue payments, caretaker Health
Minister Firass Abiad had said that “there is a problem regarding the increase
that occurred to the Health Ministry’s hospitalization budget, seeing as it is
necessary to issue a decree… to be able to implement the increases on fees.”“Due
to the absence of cabinet sessions, this decree was not issued, and accordingly
the Finance Ministry informed us that it is not possible to pay these overdue
fees, which threatens the continuity of offering hospitalization services to
patients,” Abiad added. The cabinet has not convened since the expiry of Michel
Aoun’s presidential term on October 31. The Free Patriotic Movement has
meanwhile warned against convening the caretaker cabinet amid a presidential
vacuum.
US ambassador urges president election, says situation not
hopeless
Naharnet/November 29, 2022 .
U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea on Tuesday stressed the need to elect a
new Lebanese president, warning that procrastination and betting on time are not
in Lebanon’s interest, the National News Agency said. During a visit to the
Maronite League, Shea also called for approving the needed reforms in order to
reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund.
She also reassured that the situation in Lebanon is not hopeless.
Powerful flashfloods wreak havoc in Keserwan and Jbeil
Naharnet/November 29, 2022 .
Heavy rains on Tuesday caused powerful flashfloods in Jounieh, Kaslik and Kfar
Hbab in the Keserwan district, trapping motorists in their vehicles and causing
major damage, media reports said. The rains also submerged Jbeil’s old souks.
Videos published online showed citizens difficultly fleeing their submerged and
water shoved vehicles in Keserwan.
Joint committees convene in key session over capital control law
Naharnet/November 29, 2022 .
Joint parliamentary committees convened Tuesday in Parliament to resume the
discussion of a capital control draft law, including one of its most important
clauses. A clause about forming a special committee to supervise the
implementation of the law is to be discussed today or tomorrow, as the
discussion will resume during a second session on Wednesday. The committees had
convened in the last weeks, finalizing 17 clauses, amid protests by depositors
and some MPs. Depositors and activists rallied again near Parliament to protest
the law.The adoption of a capital control law is one of the reforms requested by
the International Monetary Fund to financially help crisis-hit Lebanon, but some
consider it unfair to the depositors, who consider the law as "a veiled amnesty
law" for "the thieves of public and private money." Since October 2019, banks
have been imposing informal capital controls, barring depositors from reaching
into their dollar accounts, as well as stopping transfers, amid a severe
financial crisis. The capital control law will impose official restrictions on
transfers and withdrawals. MPs from different political parties have long said
they will defend the depositors' rights. "Our aim is to protect the depositors'
savings and to stop the overseas transfers," Hezbollah MP Ali Fayyad said after
the session. For his part, Deputy Prime Minister Saadeh Shami who attended the
session said that the financial recovery plan is a different topic, as some MPs
had mentioned it during the session. "There is some sort of populism," Saade
added. In its last session prior to becoming a caretaker Cabinet following May
22 parliamentary elections, the government had approved an economic recovery
plan amid the objection of the ministers of Hezbollah and Amal. The recovery
plan said that banks would be recapitalized from bank shareholders and large
depositors. It said it would protect small depositors "to the maximum extent
possible" but did not specify the minimum amount that will be protected.
Jumblat 'understands' Othman amid judicial paralysis
Naharnet/November 29, 2022 .
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat supported Tuesday a memo by
Internal Security Forces chief Maj. Gen. Imad Othman, that had sparked
criticism. The memo gave the security forces the full authority to issue arrest
warrants, in case the public prosecutions are unreachable or refuse to give a
judicial authorization. Some media reports dubbed the move as "illegal" and
accused Othman of turning the country into a "police state". "I understand
Othman's memo, in the absence of the judicial authority," Jumblat said in a
social media statement. "This situation cannot go on." Jumblat criticized the
state that "hasn't yet acknowledged the necessity of adopting an economic
austerity policy that focuses on priorities.""Closing some Embassies can secure
the money needed for rehabilitating the disabled Justice Palace," Jumblat said.
Lebanese judges have been on strike since mid-August to demand salary
readjustments, paralyzing the country's courthouses. Amid a record depreciation
of the national currency, public sector employees' salaries in Lebanese Pound
became insufficient for basic living expenses. "Enough with the negligence of
the security and the interests of the judiciary and the people," Jumblat
decried.
Report: Berri floats name of Pierre Daher to press LF on Franjieh
Naharnet/November 29, 2022 .
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri is sending “coded messages” to Maarab to press
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea to start a “presidential dialogue” with
Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh, a media report said on Tuesday. Berri
wants a “certain settlement resembling the Maarab agreement that would let the
LF secure a Christian cover for Franjieh’s election as president,” Nidaa al-Watan
newspaper quoted unnamed sources as saying. The Speaker is “working on several
tracks to achieve his purpose,” including “pressing Geagea to endorse this
plan,” the sources added. To this end, the sources revealed that Berri is
attacking on two fronts – the first is “promoting (LBCI TV owner) Pierre Daher
as a serious and centrist presidential candidate in order to irritate the LF,
especially that the Speaker knows the major LF sensitivity that would arise from
proposing this name due to the deep dispute over LBCI’s ownership between Daher
and the LF,” the sources said.“According to Ain el-Tineh’s sources, this will
push the LF to prefer endorsing Franjieh’s nomination should it sense any
seriousness for Daher’s presidential chances,” the sources added. Another point
that Berri is allegedly using to press Maarab is represented in floating the
issue of Tele Liban’s broadcast of the 2018 FIFA World Cup from the angle of
raising financial suspicions over then-information minister Melhem Riachi, the
sources said.
Mikati says US yet to answer his inquiry about Iranian fuel
grant
Naharnet/November 29, 2022 .
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati has said that he has “asked the Americans”
about the issue of the Iranian fuel grant for Lebanon and that he is yet to
receive an “official answer.”“I do not accept to subject Lebanon to any
sanctions, whatever they may be,” Mikati added, in an interview on LBCI
television.
Separately, Mikati said that Algerian company Sonatrach is willing to supply
Lebanon with fuel but noted that “there are problems related to legal matters
and work is ongoing to resolve them.”As for the issue of the electricity
regulatory commission, Mikati said caretaker Energy Minister Walid Fayyad has
“surprised” him by “announcing the reception of applications from six
candidates, whereas it was needed to announce five candidates for the regulatory
commission (a president and four members).”“I sent a memo in this regard to
Fayyad, because that entails a clear violation of the law, and I’m dealing with
a political group whose concern is obstruction,” the PM added. He also warned
that “without a regulatory commission for electricity there can be no funding
from the World Bank for importing electricity from Jordan and gas from Egypt.”
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on November
29-30/2022
UN Iran expert concerned about death sentences for protesters
Emma Farge/GENEVA (Reuters)/November 29, 2022
A U.N.-appointed independent expert on Iran voiced concern on Tuesday that the
repression of protesters was intensifying, with authorities launching a
"campaign" of sentencing them to death. The U.N. says more than 300 people have
been killed so far and 14,000 arrested in protests which began after the Sept.
16 death in custody of 22-year-old Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini. "I'm afraid that
the Iranian regime will react violently to the Human Rights Council resolution
and this may trigger more violence and repression on their part," Javaid Rehman
told Reuters, referring to a UN Human Rights Council vote to establish a probe
into the crackdown last week. Tehran has rejected the investigation and says it
will not cooperate. "Now (authorities) have started a campaign of sentencing
(protesters) to death," he added, saying he expected more to be sentenced.
Already, 21 people arrested in the context of the protests face the death
penalty, including a woman indicted on "vague and broadly formulated criminal
offences", and six have been sentenced this month, Rehman said. Iran has blamed
foreign foes and their agents for the unrest. Its judiciary chief last month
ordered judges to issue tough sentences for the "main elements of riots". Even
before the unrest, executions were rising and the U.N. human rights boss Volker
Turk has said the number this year had reportedly surpassed 400 by September for
the first time in five years. The U.N. resolution is seen as being among the
more strongly-worded in the body's 16-year history and urges the mission to
"collect, consolidate and analyse evidence". Past investigations launched by the
council have led to war crimes cases, including the jailing of a Syrian
ex-officer for state-backed torture in Germany this year. Rehman said he expects
the new Fact-Finding Mission to provide a list of perpetrators and share that
with national and regional legal authorities. "It will ensure accountability and
it will provide evidence to the courts and tribunals," he said. A U.N. document
showed the mission would have 15 staff members and a budget of $3.67 million.
UN to Vote on Iran's Future on Women's Rights Body in
December
New York - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 29 November, 2022
Diplomats said on Monday that the UN Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) would
vote on December 14 on a US draft resolution to oust Iran from the UN's
Commission on the Status of women. Washington presses to punish Tehran for its
denial of women's rights and brutal suppression of protests. On Monday, the US
circulated a draft resolution on the move, seen by Reuters, that also denounces
Iran's policies as "flagrantly contrary to the human rights of women and girls
and the mandate of the Commission on the Status of Women." Iran has just started
a four-year term on the 45-member Commission, which meets annually every March
and aims to promote gender equality and women's empowerment. The draft
resolution would exclude Iran with "immediate effect" from the Commission on the
Status of Women for the "remainder of its 2022-2026 term." The 54-member Council
would vote on whether to oust Iran from the Commission. "The US and others have
been working the phones to garner support to remove Iran from the UN Commission
on the Status of Women," said a UN diplomat, speaking on the condition of
anonymity. "It seems like they're making traction – including with some
initially hesitant countries." Iran has been witnessing protests since the death
of Mahsa Amini, 22, in police custody in September. The unrest has turned into a
popular revolt by Iranians from all layers of society, posing one of the boldest
challenges to the clerical leadership since the 1979 revolution. Iran
haDiplomats said on Monday that the UN Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC)
would vote on December 14 on a US draft resolution to oust Iran from the UN's
Commission on the Status of women. Washington presses to punish Tehran for its
denial of women's rights and brutal suppression of protests.On Monday, the US
circulated a draft resolution on the move, seen by Reuters, that also denounces
Iran's policies as "flagrantly contrary to the human rights of women and girls
and the mandate of the Commission on the Status of Women."Iran has just started
a four-year term on the 45-member Commission, which meets annually every March
and aims to promote gender equality and women's empowerment. The draft
resolution would exclude Iran with "immediate effect" from the Commission on the
Status of Women for the "remainder of its 2022-2026 term."The 54-member Council
would vote on whether to oust Iran from the Commission.
"The US and others have been working the phones to garner support to remove Iran
from the UN Commission on the Status of Women," said a UN diplomat, speaking on
the condition of anonymity. "It seems like they're making traction – including
with some initially hesitant countries." Iran has been witnessing protests since
the death of Mahsa Amini, 22, in police custody in September. The unrest has
turned into a popular revolt by Iranians from all layers of society, posing one
of the boldest challenges to the clerical leadership since the 1979 revolution.
Iran has blamed its foreign enemies and their agents for the unrest.s blamed its
foreign enemies and their agents for the unrest.
Iranian Vice President Rules out Referendum amid Ongoing
Protests
London, Tehran/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 29 November, 2022
The Iranian government has rejected demands for a referendum to change the
system of the Islamic Republic regime and the freedom to wear the veil, as the
protests continued over the death of Mahsa Amini. In a press conference in
Tehran on Monday, Mohammad Dehghan, Iranian Vice President for Legal Affairs,
touched on the protesters’ calls to amend the law on the veil and to hold a
referendum on the regime. “If necessary, we will hold a referendum with the
approval of the Supreme Leader and the vote of two-thirds of the parliament,” he
noted, adding: “It is impossible to change the system of the Islamic Republic…
The referendum is not like ordinary legislation.”Dehghan continued: “The freedom
of the veil contradicts the principles and manifestations of the Islamic
Republic. We have held meetings, and we will announce our opinion about the veil
to the competent authorities… At a time of unrest, the enemies insist on raising
some issues that do not serve the interest of the country.” Protests and strikes
continue in Iran since the death of Amini, 22, in September. Truck drivers
maintained their strike for the third day in a row, while videos on social
networks showed demonstrations in the provinces of Kermanshah, Qazvin, Lorestan,
Hormozgan and Isfahan. In addition, the employees of the Iron and Steel Company
in Isfahan renewed their strike. A group of teachers in the Kurdistan province
issued a statement in a video recording, criticizing the continued repression
and violence. Similarly, 210 professors from the University of Tabriz, the
provincial capital of East Azerbaijan, released a statement condemning the
killing of medical student Elar Hakki earlier this month. Sunni clerics in the
provinces of Baluchistan and Kurdistan, most notably the Friday Imam of Zahedan,
Abdul Hamid Ismail Zahi, called for holding a referendum on the Iranian policies
under international supervision. Meanwhile, Iranian media revealed a draft law
that a group of deputies intends to present in the coming days, to toughen
judicial rulings against collaborators “with countries that are hostile to
national security and national interests.” According to this law, the detainees
will face corruption charges, which are punished by penalties that can reach the
death sentence.
Iranian Reporters Grill U.S. Coach And Star At World Cup
And It Goes Off The Rails
Ron Dicker/HuffPost/November 29, 2022
The United States and Iran are playing a World Cup soccer match Tuesday with
tournament survival on the line ― but Iranian reporters were determined to go
further afield at a news conference a day earlier. The journalists asked U.S.
coach Gregg Berhalter why he hasn’t told the U.S. government to pull a Navy ship
away from Iran, USA Today’s Nancy Armour reported. “I don’t know enough about
politics, I’m a soccer coach,” Berhalter replied, per the New York Post. A
journalist reprimanded U.S. team captain Tyler Adams for mispronouncing Iran,
and then asked him if it was “OK” for him to represent a country that
discriminates against Black people. Adams, who is Black, apologized for
incorrectly saying “Eye-Ran” instead of “Eeh-Rahn,” and scored diplomatic points
with his response about racism. “There’s discrimination everywhere you go,”
Adams said. “One thing that I’ve learned, especially from living abroad in the
past years and having to fit in in different cultures ... is that in the U.S.,
we’re continuing to make progress every single day.”According to a partial
transcript shared by soccer reporter Grant Wahl, the journalists also asked how
much of the world is siding with the Americans in the match, and also linked
high U.S. inflation and economic problems to the level of support for the squad.
The politically charged turn of the news conference should come as no surprise.
On social posts just days earlier, U.S. Soccer temporarily scrubbed the Islamic
Republic emblem from the Iranian flag in solidarity with protesters in Iran
fighting for women’s rights. A woman died in police custody in September after
reportedly being arrested for wearing her hijab too loosely, touching off
demonstrations and harsh government suppression. Berhalter said players and
staff were not aware that U.S. Soccer was going to alter the image of the flag,
but said his thoughts were with the people of Iran. Iran’s state-run news agency
Tasnim called for the U.S. to be ejected from the World Cup over the flag
controversy.
U.S. to reinforce NATO's presence 'from the Black to
Baltic Seas' - Blinken
Reuters/November 29, 2022
STORY: Blinken said Russia was responsible for one of the worst food security
crises in years. 'Were not going to be deterred going forward. We're going to be
reinforcing NATO's presence from the Black to the Baltic Seas," Blinken said
during a joint news conference with his Romanian counterpart. Blinken arrived in
Romania on Monday (November 28) evening ahead of meetings with NATO allies and
foreign ministers from the Group of Seven advanced economies.
Russia's Medvedev warns NATO over supplying Ukraine with
Patriot systems
(Reuters)/November 29, 2022
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned NATO on Tuesday against
providing Ukraine with Patriot missile defence systems, denouncing the alliance
as a "criminal entity" for delivering arms to what he called "extremist
regimes". Medvedev, who once cast himself as a liberal moderniser as president
from 2008 to 2012, has increasingly emerged as one of the most hawkish
proponents of Russia's war in Ukraine, posting scathing denunciations of the
West on his social media channels. "If, as (NATO Secretary-General Jens)
Stoltenberg hinted, NATO were to supply the Ukrainian fanatics with Patriot
systems along with NATO personnel, they would immediately become a legitimate
target of our armed forces," Medvedev wrote on the Telegram messaging app. It
was not clear from his message whether he was referring to Patriot systems,
Ukrainian forces or NATO personnel becoming a target. "The civilised world does
not need this organisation. It must repent to humanity and be dissolved as a
criminal entity," he wrote in an earlier post. Ukraine has asked its Western
partners for air defences, including U.S.-made Patriot systems, to protect it
from Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure. NATO ministers have condemned
what they call Russia's "persistent and unconscionable attacks on Ukrainian
civilian and energy infrastructure", and pledged to step up their support for
Kyiv.
A Russian couple who opposed Putin and the Ukraine war
sought asylum in the US. They were detained for six months.
Sophia Ankel/Business Insider/November 29, 2022 .
A Russian couple sought asylum in the US but were detained for six months, The
New York Times reported. A Russian couple who opposed President Vladimir Putin
and his invasion of Ukraine was detained for six months after seeking asylum in
the US, The New York Times reported on Monday.
Mariia Shemiatina and Boris Shevchuk, both practicing physicians, had been vocal
critics of Putin since at least 2018 and feared they would either be conscripted
to serve as medics on the front lines or imprisoned, after posting anti-war
messages on social media. Unable to get visas to travel to Europe, they fled to
Tijuana, Mexico, in mid-April, before requesting asylum at a US port of entry.
But the couple was detained, separated, and flown to two remote immigration
detention centers in Louisiana, where they were kept for six months before being
reunited, according to the Times. The Times reported that a growing number of
Russian asylum claims are being processed at the US southern border, following
the start of the invasion of Ukraine, but many asylum seekers are being put into
immigration detention centers that resemble prisons for months on end. In the
2022 fiscal year, 21,763 Russians sought refuge in the US, compared to just 467
in 2020. Shemiatina told The Times that she shared a dorm with two dozen
Russians at the South Louisiana ICE Processing Center in the town of Basile. Her
husband was held in the Immigration and Customs Enforcement facility in Pine
Prairie, 30 miles away. After a fellow detainee threatened violence against him
and others, Shevchuk demanded they be moved, he told The Times. But during the
transfer a guard handcuffed him and knocked him to the ground, causing a head
injury, Shevchuk told The Times. "I came to realize that I had left Russia for a
place that was just like Russia," Shevchuk said. The couple were reunited in
October, and have subsequently been staying with a volunteer working for Freedom
for Immigrants, an organization that aids detained immigrants, the Times said.
It is unclear what their immigration status is. A spokesperson for Immigration
and Customs Enforcement (ICE) did not immediately respond to Insider's request
for comment. It is unclear how many Russian asylum seekers are being detained in
the US, but Svetlana Kaff, an immigration lawyer, told the Times that she has
recently been flooded with requests for help. "Proportionately, compared to
people from other countries, there are more Russians being sent to detention,"
she said.
UNICEF Condemns Violence against Children in Iran Protests
Washington - Ali Barada/Asharq Al Awsat/November 29/2022
The United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) denounced the violence and abuse
that killed more than 50 children and injured dozens of others during the public
unrest in Iran. The agency demanded ending the raids and searches conducted at
some schools and said schools must always be safe places for children. It
condemned "all violence against children," calling for an end to "all forms of
violence and abuse that have reportedly claimed the lives of over 50 children
and injured many more during the public unrest in Iran." UNICEF directly
"communicated its concerns to the authorities in Iran since the first cases of
child casualties occurred in response to the protests." Iran is a party to the
Convention on the Rights of the Child and should respect, protect, and fulfill
children's rights to life, privacy, freedom of thought, and peaceful assembly,
said the agency. "UNICEF urges the authorities to respect the rights of all
children to peaceful assembly as a fundamental guarantee – no matter who they
are or where they are." The agency asserted that the "best interest of children
should be at the center of government action, creating ways where children can
safely claim their rights in all circumstances." It stressed that children must
remain with their families, communities, and schools, not in places that deprive
them of their liberty. UNICEF echoed the UN Secretary-General's call to security
forces to "refrain from using unnecessary or disproportionate force. Children
and adolescents must be protected from all forms of harm that risk their lives,
freedom, and mental and physical health." It also noted that many parents had
experienced the devastating loss of a child from the unrest, expressing its
"deepest sympathy to them, and their loved ones and communities impacted by
these events." The Human Rights Activists News Agency (Hrana) reported that as
of November 26, 450 protesters had been killed during the unrest, including 63
minors. It added that 60 members of the security forces were killed, and the
authorities arrested 18,173 .Iran did not announce an official death toll for
the protesters, but Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani said that about 50
policemen had been killed in the protests since September 16.
Israeli fire kills three Palestinians in West Bank
Agence France Presse/November 29/2022
Three Palestinians were killed by Israeli troops in the West Bank Tuesday, the
Palestinian health ministry said, the latest deaths in a sharp uptick in
violence in the occupied territory. Two brothers were killed by Israeli fire in
Kafr Ein, near Ramallah, while a third man died of bullet wounds to the head
fired by Israeli troops in Beit Ummar, near the flashpoint city of Hebron, the
ministry said. Commenting on the Beit Ummar clash, the Israeli army said it had
opened fire on "rioters" who "hurled rocks and improvised explosive devices at
the soldiers" after two vehicles got stuck during an "operation patrol" in the
area. The Palestinian ministry said a man it did not identify had died "after
being shot in the head." It named the dead in Kafr Ein as brothers Jawad
Abdulrahman Rimawi, 22, and Dhafer Abdul Rahman Rimawi, 21. There was no
immediate comment from the Israeli army. Palestinian Authority civil affairs
minister Hussein Al Sheikh described the killing of the two brothers as an
"execution in cold blood." Hamas, the Islamist movement which runs Gaza, said
the Israeli "escalation" would be "confronted by escalating resistance" from
Palestinians. Violence has flared this year in the West Bank, where the Israeli
army has launched near-daily raids across the territory. This week the army
announced it had made more than 3,000 arrests this year as part of Operation
Break the Wave, a campaign it launched following a series of deadly attacks
against Israeli civilians. The United Nations says more than 125 Palestinians
have been killed across the West Bank this year. Israel has occupied the
territory since the Six-Day War of 1967.
Egypt Insists on Withdrawal of Mercenaries from Libya
Cairo – Jamal Gawhar and Khaled Mahmoud/Asharq Al Awsat/November 29/2022
Cairo hosted on Monday meetings with Libyan officials, including parliament
Speaker Aguila Saleh. The UN Special Envoy to Libya, Abdoulaye Bathily, also met
Sameh Shoukry, the Egyptian Foreign Minister. Egypt reiterated its demand for
the withdrawal of mercenaries and foreign forces from Libya.
Secretary General of the Arab League Ahmed Aboul Gheit met with Saleh to discuss
challenges facing the Libyan political process and solutions to the ongoing
crisis. After the meeting, Saleh said holding Libyan elections required several
measures, but hoped the Constitutional Committee would complete its tasks soon.
He also voiced optimism towards the Committee finding consensus on sovereign
institutions. Saleh said the executive authority represented in the government
of Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah had been tasked with specific duties to complete within
a deadline, but it failed. He called on the UN envoy, Bathily, to invite the
Constitutional Base Committee, formed by the parliament and the High Council of
State, to meet. The speaker also stressed that the absence of a UN envoy during
the recent period, after the resignation of Stephanie Williams, hindered the
completion of the constitutional foundation because the meeting of the committee
must be held under the auspices of the UN. A new round of negotiations on the
“constitutional track” between Saleh and the head of the High Council of State,
Khaled al-Mishri, will start in Cairo with the presence of Bathily, sources
reported. Saleh and Mishri did not announce in advance that either of them would
meet in Cairo. However, council members talked about a meeting aimed at
completing the discussion on unifying the executive authority, filling sovereign
positions, and providing a constitutional basis for postponed presidential and
parliamentary elections. Shoukry stressed “the importance of the UN role in
supporting the political and constitutional processes, legal frameworks and
encouraging Libyan dialogue.”The FM added that the implementation of standing
agreements and legal mandates requires first the application of UN and
international decisions regarding the withdrawal all foreign forces and
mercenaries from Libya. The pullout, according to Shoukry, needs to be complete
within a certain timeline.
UN Special Coordinator Warns Oslo Accords Are ‘Slipping Away’
Washington - Ali Barada/Asharq Al Awsat/November 29/2022
The UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, Tor Wennesland,
warned that the Palestinian-Israeli once again reached a "boiling point,"
stressing that the settlement expansion and restrictions continue to squeeze the
"economic and physical space for developing a viable Palestinian State."
He warned that the current context leads to the disappearance of the principles
that underpin the Oslo Accords, including the two-state solution. Wennesland was
briefing the Security Council on the situation in the Middle East and noted that
after decades of persistent violence, illegal settlement expansion, dormant
negotiations, and deepening occupation, "the conflict is again reaching a
boiling point."He indicated that "high levels" of violence in the occupied West
Bank and Israel in recent months, including attacks against Israeli and
Palestinian civilians, increased use of arms, and settler-related violence, have
"caused grave human suffering." He condemned the recent bombings in Jerusalem
that killed two Israelis, calling for "a clear rejection of such terrorist
acts," and the violent attack by Israeli settlers against Palestinians in Hebron
that risks aggravating an already tense environment.
The official asserted that all parties were responsible for acting against
extremists and speaking out against such acts of violence and incitement.
Wennesland noted that the "fragile calm" was recently interrupted by the
launching of four rockets toward Israel by Palestinian gunmen and subsequent
Israeli airstrikes against what it said were Hamas movement targets. "Once
again, we are reminded that the mix of militant activity, debilitating closures,
absence of the legitimate Palestinian Government, and hopelessness create an
ever-present risk of escalation.""My team and I have in recent weeks visited
areas where violence has been severe, and I continue to hold discussions with a
range of Palestinian and Israeli officials, as well as international and
regional actors, to address the dangerous dynamics," he added. The UN official
warned that demography is moving faster than politics. "In a few years,
exponential population growth in the West Bank and Gaza will make it
increasingly difficult, if not impossible, to manage the economic, political,
and security situation." Moreover, he warned that the principles that underpin
the Oslo Accords are "slipping away," noting that "political leadership is
required to reset the trajectory toward a two-state solution.""Failing to
address the underlying causes of conflict, as well as the negative trends I just
outlined, and without demonstrating a clear political path forward, the conflict
will only escalate, causing more bloodshed and misery, and have a deeply
destabilizing effect on the entire region."
Wennesland urged taking necessary steps towards a two-state solution, which
still garners considerable support among Palestinians and Israelis. "Through
incremental but tangible steps, we can build a bridge between where we are now
and the conditions necessary for a peaceful resolution of the conflict based on
United Nations resolutions, international law, and previous agreements," he
said. He called on both sides to "stop unilateral steps that undermine peace,
including settlement expansion or legalization, demolitions, and displacement.
Furthermore, Wennesland urged all parties and the international community to
strengthen Palestinian institutions, improve governance, and shore up the fiscal
health of the Palestinian Authority (PA). However, he stressed that a "common
approach" where the "two-state solution is the guiding political direction is
essential to halting the current negative trajectory."
"Neither can turn away from the realities of geography and demography that are
reshaping the landscape, which, combined with [fast] expanding settlements east
of the 1967 lines, reflects an increase in friction points and a deepening
conflict."
SDF in Syria Wants 'Stronger' US Warning for Türkiye
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 29 November, 2022
The head of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces said on Tuesday he still
feared a Turkish ground invasion despite US assurances and has demanded a
"stronger" message from Washington after seeing unprecedented Turkish
deployments along the border. "There are reinforcements on the border and within
Syria in areas controlled by factions allied to Türkiye. We noticed this and,
yes, this is new," SDF chief Mazloum Abdi told Reuters by phone from Syria.
Turkish officials said the army needed just a few days to be ready for a ground
incursion into northern Syria, which has been attacked with howitzer long-range
weapons and warplanes by the Turks for days. The bombardments come after months
of threats by Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan of a new ground invasion against
Kurdish forces, which he considers to be terrorists. Syrian Kurdish forces have
received backing from Washington for years, but have also coordinated with
Syria's government and its ally Russia, both seen as foes by the United States.
Abdi said he had received "clear" assurances from both Washington and Moscow
that they opposed a Turkish ground invasion but wanted something more tangible
to hold back Ankara. "We are still nervous. We need stronger, more solid
statements to stop Türkiye," he said. " Türkiye has announced its intent and is
now feeling things out. The beginning of an invasion will depend on how it
analyses the positions of other countries." Abdi said he would not rely on
Syrian air defenses after previously telling Reuters he hoped they would help
defend his forces from Ankara's air strikes. "Their position is weak compared to
the Turkish army," he said.
Biden, Macron Ready to Talk Ukraine, Trade in State Visit
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 29 November, 2022
French President Emmanuel Macron is headed to Washington for the first state
visit of Joe Biden's presidency — a revival of diplomatic pageantry that had
been put on hold because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Biden-Macron relationship
had a choppy start. Macron briefly recalled France's ambassador to the United
States last year after the White House announced a deal to sell nuclear
submarines to Australia, undermining a contract for France to sell
diesel-powered submarines. But the relationship has turned around with Macron
emerging as one of Biden's most forward-facing European allies in the Western
response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This week's visit — it will include
Oval Office talks, a glitzy dinner, a news conference and more — comes at a
critical moment for both leaders. The leaders have a long agenda for their
Thursday meeting at the White House, including Iran's nuclear program, China's
increasing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific and growing concerns about security
and stability in Africa's Sahel region, according to US and French officials.
But front and center during their Oval Office meeting will be Russia's war in
Ukraine, as both Biden and Macron work to maintain economic and military support
for Kyiv as it tries to repel Russian forces. In Washington, Republicans are set
to take control of the House, where GOP leader Kevin McCarthy says Republicans
will not write a “blank check” for Ukraine. Across the Atlantic, Macron's
efforts to keep Europe united will be tested by the mounting costs of supporting
Ukraine in the nine-month war and as Europe battles rising energy prices that
threaten to derail the post-pandemic economic recovery. White House National
Security Council spokesman John Kirby on Monday described Macron as the “dynamic
leader” of America's oldest ally while explaining Biden's decision to honor the
French president with the first state visit of his presidency. The US tradition
of honoring foreign heads of state dates back to Ulysses S. Grant, who hosted
King David Kalakaua of the Kingdom of Hawaii for a more than 20-course White
House dinner, but the tradition has been on hold since 2019 because of COVID-19
concerns.
“If you look at what’s going on in Ukraine, look at what’s going on in the Indo
Pacific and the tensions with China, France is really at the center of all those
things,” Kirby said. “And so, the president felt that this was exactly the right
and the most appropriate country to start with for state visits.”
Macron was also Republican Donald Trump's pick as the first foreign leader to be
honored with a state visit during his term. The 2018 state visit included a
jaunt by the two leaders to Mount Vernon, the Virginia estate of George
Washington, America’s founding president.
Macron was scheduled to arrive in Washington on Tuesday evening ahead of a
packed day of meetings and appearances in and around Washington on Wednesday —
including a visit to NASA headquarters with Vice President Kamala Harris and
talks with Biden administration officials on nuclear energy.
On Thursday, Macron will have his private meeting with Biden followed by a joint
news conference and visits to the State Department and Capitol Hill before
Macron and his wife, Brigitte Macron, are feted at the state dinner. Grammy
winner Jon Batiste is to provide the entertainment. acron will head to New
Orleans on Friday, where he is to announce plans to expand programming to
support French language education in US schools, according to French officials.
or all of that, there are still areas of tension in the US-French relationship.
Biden has steered clear of embracing Macron’s calls on Ukraine to resume peace
talks with Russia, something Biden has repeatedly said is a decision solely in
the hands of Ukraine's leadership. Perhaps more pressing are differences that
France and other European Union leaders have raised about Biden's Inflation
Reduction Act, sweeping legislation passed in August that includes historic
spending on climate and energy initiatives. Macron and other leaders have been
rankled by a provision in the bill that provides tax credits to consumers who
buy electric vehicles manufactured in North America.
The French president, in making his case against the subsidies, will underscore
that it's crucial for “Europe, like the US, to come out stronger ... not weaker”
as the world emerges from the tumult of the pandemic and Russia's invasion of
Ukraine, according to a senior French government official who briefed reporters
on the condition of anonymity to preview private talks.
Macron earlier this month said the subsidies could upend the “level playing
field” on trade with the EU and called aspects of the Biden legislation “unfriendly."The
White House, meanwhile, plans to counter that the legislation goes a long way in
helping the US meet global efforts to curb climate change. The president and
aides will also impress on the French that the legislation will also create new
opportunities for French companies and others in Europe, according to a senior
Biden administration official who briefed reporters on the condition of
anonymity to preview the talks. Macron's visit comes about 14 months after the
relationship hit its nadir after the US announced its deal to sell nuclear
submarines to Australia. After the announcement of the deal, which had been
negotiated in secret, France briefly recalled its ambassador to Washington. A
few weeks later Macron met Biden in Rome ahead of the Group of 20 summit, where
the US president sought to patch things up by acknowledging his administration
had been “clumsy” in how it handled the issue. Macron's visit with Harris to
NASA headquarters on Wednesday will offer the two countries a chance to
spotlight their cooperation on space. France in June signed the Artemis Accords,
a blueprint for space cooperation and supporting NASA’s plans to return humans
to the moon by 2024 and to launch a historic human mission to Mars.The same
month, the US joined a French initiative to develop new tools for adapting to
climate change, the Space for Climate Observatory.
Iraq PM, Iran president vow to fight 'terror'
Agence France Presse/Tuesday, 29 November, 2022
Tehran and Baghdad Tuesday identified fighting "terrorism", maintaining mutual
security and extending economic cooperation as key priorities during the new
Iraqi prime minister's first official visit to Iran. Mohammed Shia al-Sudani was
received by President Ebrahim Raisi, who expressed hopes of bolstering ties that
have lately been hit by tensions over Iran carrying out cross-border strikes
against exiled opposition groups. Sudani came to power last month, after a
year-long tussle between political factions over forming a government following
an October 2021 general election. "From our
perspective and that of the Iraqi government, security, peace, cooperation and
regional stability are very important," Raisi told a joint press conference. "As
a result, the fight against terrorist groups, organised crime, drugs and other
insecurity that threaten the region depends on the common will of our two
nations," he said. Sudani said that "our government is determined not to allow
any group or party to use Iraqi territory to undermine and disrupt Iran's
security."Since nationwide protests erupted in Iran more than two months ago,
Iranian officials have accused Kurdish opposition groups exiled in northern Iraq
of stoking the unrest and the Islamic republic has repeatedly launched deadly
cross-border strikes. Such strikes -- targeting
Iranian-Kurdish groups in Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region -- resumed this
month, even after Iraq's federal government summoned Iran's ambassador in late
September to complain about cross-border missile and drone hits that killed at
least seven people. Iraq has announced in the past week that it will redeploy
federal guards on the border between Iraqi Kurdistan and Iran, rather than
leaving the responsibility to Kurdish peshmerga forces -- a move welcomed by
Tehran. Sudani added that the two countries' national security advisers would
hold consultations to "establish a working mechanism for on-the-ground
coordination to avoid any escalation".Sudani also thanked Iran for its continued
deliveries of gas and electricity, which have been in short supply in Iraq,
while he also pointed to discussions on a "mechanism" to enable Iraq to pay Iran
for these services. Raisi said banking, finance and wider business topics were
also discussed and that talks between the two allies "will help to resolve
bilateral problems".
China Cities under Heavy Policing after Protests
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 29 November, 2022
China's major cities of Beijing and Shanghai were blanketed with security on
Tuesday in the wake of nationwide rallies calling for political freedoms and an
end to Covid lockdowns. The country's leadership faced a weekend of protests not
seen in decades, as anger over unrelenting lockdowns fuels deep-rooted
frustration with the country's political system as a whole. A deadly fire last
week in Urumqi, the capital of northwest China's Xinjiang region, was the
catalyst for the wave of outrage, with protesters taking to the streets of
cities around the country. The demonstrators said Covid restrictions were to
blame for hampering rescue efforts -- claims the government has denied as it
accused "forces with ulterior motives" of linking the fire deaths to the strict
Covid controls. Anger over lockdowns has widened to calls for political change,
with protesters holding up blank sheets of paper to symbolize the censorship the
world's most populous country is subjected to.
'So many police'
More protests were planned for Monday night but did not materialize, with AFP
journalists in Beijing and Shanghai noting a heavy police presence of hundreds
of vehicles and officers on the streets. People who had attended weekend rallies
told AFP Monday they had received phone calls from law enforcement officers
demanding information about their movements. In Shanghai, near a site where
weekend protests saw bold calls for the resignation of President Xi Jinping, bar
staff told AFP they had been ordered to close at 10:00 pm (1400 GMT) for
"disease control". Small clusters of officers were deployed to metro exits near
the protest site. Throughout Monday, AFP journalists saw officers detaining four
people, later releasing one, with a reporter counting 12 police cars within 100
meters along Wulumuqi street in Shanghai, the focal point of Sunday's rally.
Despite the overwhelming police deployment, the frustration with zero-Covid
remained palpable. "The (zero-Covid) policies now -- they're just too strict.
They kill more people than Covid," one 17-year-old passerby who did not want to
be named told AFP, saying he had been surrounded by police when passing through
the area. In an audio recording shared with AFP, a man can be heard asking for
his address, to which the passerby -- who asked to be named Ray -- insists law
enforcement officers do not "have the right" to demand it. Elsewhere, rallies
did go ahead. In semi-autonomous Hong Kong, where mass democracy protests
erupted in 2019, dozens gathered at the Chinese University to mourn the victims
of the Urumqi fire. "Don't look away. Don't forget," protesters shouted. In
Hangzhou, just over 170 kilometers (106 miles) southwest of Shanghai, there was
strict security and sporadic protests in the city's downtown, with one attendee
telling AFP that 10 people were detained. "The atmosphere was disorderly. There
were few people and we were separated. There were lots of police, it was chaos,"
she said. Such widespread rallies are exceptionally rare, with authorities
harshly clamping down on all opposition to the central government. But China's
strict control of information and continued travel curbs have made verifying
protester numbers across the vast country challenging. US President Joe Biden is
monitoring the unrest, the White House said Monday. Around the world, solidarity
protests also mushroomed. "Officials are borrowing the pretext of Covid, but
using excessively strict lockdowns to control China's population," one
21-year-old Chinese participant in a Washington protest who gave only his
surname, Chen, told AFP. "They disregarded human lives and caused many to die in
vain," he said.
‘Will calm down soon’
China's leaders are committed to zero-Covid, which compels local governments to
impose snap lockdowns and quarantine orders, and limit freedom of movement in
response to minor outbreaks. But there are signs that some local authorities are
taking steps to relax some of the rules and dampen the unrest. In Urumqi, an
official said Tuesday the city would give a one-off payment of 300 yuan ($42) to
each person with "low income or no income", and announced a five-month rent
exemption for some households. Beijing has banned "the practice of barring
building gates in closed-off residential compounds", official news agency Xinhua
said on Sunday. The practice has fueled public anger as people found themselves
locked in their homes during minor outbreaks. And an influential state media
commentator suggested that Covid controls could be further relaxed -- while
insisting the public "will soon calm down". "I can give an absolute prediction:
China will not become chaotic or out of control," Hu Xijin, with the state-run
tabloid Global Times, said on Twitter -- which is banned in China.
"China may walk out of the shadow of Covid-19 sooner than expected."
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on November
29-30/2022
Khamenei’s Confession
Nadim Koteich/Asharq Al Awsat/November 29/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/113709/nadim-koteich-khameneis-confession-%d9%86%d8%af%d9%8a%d9%85-%d9%82%d8%b7%d9%8a%d8%b4-%d8%a7%d8%b9%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%81%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%ae%d8%a7%d9%85%d9%86%d8%a6%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84/
We should be grateful to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei for admitting to
the role that his country plays in the Arab world.
In a series of tweets from his English account, Khamenei put forward his vision
of a Western conspiracy that Iran had foiled. “From the Westerners’ point of
view, Iran had strategic depth in six countries. They had to be controlled by
the United States and the colonialism before Iran could be dealt with. The
governments of these six countries (Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Sudan and
Somalia) had to fall,” he says. He then adds that “Iran’s approach was
successful in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, and the US policy failed.”
Such confessions invalidate all the attempts to maintain that Iran is innocent
of interfering in the affairs of Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, as well as other
countries (arenas, per the Iranian lexicon.) It also denies the claims made by
the leaders of the militias loyal to Iran operating in these countries, who
always maintain that Iran supports the aspirations of the people, not its own
agenda.
Two things seem interesting about what Khamenei said. First, it entails a
flagrant contradiction between explicitly endorsing Iran’s strategic successes
and his consistent claims that Iran is innocent of the actions that supposedly
led to this success, especially when they are of a criminal nature. Second, it
does not even mention the staggering costs for his country’s supposed strategic
success, which were paid by Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.
Let us take Lebanon as an example. The Special Tribunal for Lebanon ruled that
several of those accused - key Hezbollah operatives - of assassinating Rafik
Hariri, and it is valid to ask whether Khamenei’s confession is also indirectly
a confession that his regime killed Hariri.
Per Khamenei's logic, Hariri was nothing more than the political manifestation
of colonialism and its project - a tool in the toolkit the colonialist West uses
to further its agenda, which is represented by the “Zionist entity.” Since the
Iranian project was victorious - according to Khamenei - after Hariri was
killed, it becomes easy to maintain that the man’s assassination was a necessary
prerequisite for this victory.
If, on the other hand, we were to examine the state of affairs in Lebanon, Iraq
and Syria, we would conclude the conditions of the Lebanese, Syrians, Iraqis and
(of course) the Iranians are the high cost that had to be paid to ensure victory
over the Western conspiracy. These costs include destroying the Lebanese state,
obliterating the Syrian social fabric and breaking Iraq apart.
It seems that the simplified explanation put forward by Khamenei regarding the
role played by Iran, which he presented as one of creating a bulwark against
Western conspiracies and followed up with his premature conclusion that victory
had been attained, also requires our attention.
Khamenei does not tell us why defeating the Western conspiracy did not end
Israel, the crown jewel of the conspiracy according to the Iranians’ worldview.
Nor does he explain how Israel has managed to achieve such immense progress on
the economic, financial, scientific and military fronts while those who defeated
it find themselves in dire straits!
He does not tell us how allying and coordinating with the Americans in Iraq
feeds into the dynamic of confronting Western conspiracies. They coordinated
together to bring down Saddam Hussein and then to establish and power share
there, which they continue to do to this day.
None of this is factored into Khamenei’s logic. Ideological thinking in crisis
does not look into the veracity of the evidence or what numbers and cold
calculation can tell us. Khamenei’s logic is that of someone both in crisis and
pain.
Khamenei did not make his tweet in a vacuum. They are an extension of the
hapless policy he has adopted to confront the threats posed by the revolt his
regime is facing, which will fail even if the regime’s iron fist manages to
repress the popular uprising.
Indeed, Iran is an idea before anything else. And this idea is being dragged
across the streets of Iran’s cities and towns. All that remains of the idea is
its ability to use brutality, force people to accept it through raw violence,
and call on thugs to face the people.
From the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ threats to Saudi Arabia to attacking a
commercial ship in the Gulf of Oman, raising uranium enrichment in Iran,
increasing military support for Russia in Ukraine through supplies of drones and
missiles, to reportedly deploying a surface-to-air missile system that threatens
air navigation in East Asia, and many other provocative actions, all boil down
to a simple fact that the Iranian regime refuses to acknowledge. All its foreign
victories, fabricated and genuine, cannot paper over the domestic defeat of the
Iranian idea.
Khamenei can impose a president on Lebanon through his militia. He can do away
with a framework that worries him in Iraq because it implies a greater degree of
commitment to Arabism, like that of Mustafa al-Kadhimi’s government. He can also
blackmail the countries of the Arab Gulf by threatening their waters and attacks
from Yemen, as well as threaten the security of Israeli cities.
All of that is possible with the logic of strength and repression. What it
cannot do is give the idea of the Islamic Republic back an iota of the respect
it has lost to the cries of women defending their hair.
Musk Must Preserve Twitter’s Most Vital Function
Gearoid Reidy/Bloomberg/Tuesday, 29 November, 2022
For all the controversy surrounding his purchase of Twitter Inc., Elon Musk has
at least one thing right: Twitter really is “like open-sourcing the news.”
The world’s richest man has long been an advocate for “citizen journalism,” but
since his takeover of the social media site he’s been particularly talkative on
the idea of ordinary people, rather than what he terms media elites, being the
ones who surface information.
The history of Twitter in its second-biggest market shows his instinct here is
likely correct. Little attention has been paid internationally to the impact of
Musk’s purchase in Japan, but in 2021, the country contributed around 13% of
revenue, nearly as a much on a per-capita basis as the US. It was the only
nation apart from the US that the firm broke out separately in its 10-K annual
report, with sales growing 23% from the previous year. There’s one simple reason
why Twitter grew to be so popular in the country — it’s a lifeline in times of
calamity, and Japan is beset by natural disasters more often than most. Twitter
found its feet after the triple catastrophes of March 2011 — earthquake, tsunami
and subsequent nuclear meltdown — when traditional lines of communication broke
down in the face of the largest temblor the nation has ever experienced.
Phone lines collapsed and messaging apps weren’t yet ubiquitous. The platform
was used to share information, seek shelters, for survivors to inform loved ones
of their safety, and for those in danger to request help. The millions stuck in
Tokyo, unable to get home with public transport paralyzed, turned to it to share
information on restarts and routes.
It was among the earliest examples of Twitter’s public value — indeed, of social
networking in general. The company, which had only just set up its Japanese
office that month, became universal. Japanese users still flock to the site when
an earthquake, such as the 7.3 magnitude one in March, hits, sharing information
in real-time about the damage far faster than traditional media organizations
could ever manage.
It’s far from the only example of Twitter’s vital function in times of disaster.
In India’s calamitous Delta Covid wave of spring 2021, the service helped
connect those in need of oxygen and hospital beds with those that had supply.
Users assisted to amplify others’ calls for help with hashtags such as #CovidSOS.
It’s proved invaluable in times of political upheaval too — from its role in the
Occupy Wall Street protests, to the “Twitter Revolutions” of Iran, Egypt and
Tunisia. Authoritarian governments, of course, got smarter, with China accused
of using the platform to undermine the Hong Kong protests in 2019. Nonetheless,
it was still an essential public square in the conversation after the killing of
George Floyd and has also been used to help document war crimes and other
atrocities.
While Twitter’s potential for disinformation is well-cataloged, it also offers a
space for countering such claims, regardless of where they come from. In the
aftermath of 3/11, with rumors of radiation in Tokyo triggering many foreigners
to flee the capital, Twitter was both a source of gossip and a balancing force,
with first-hand reports from the city helping to dispel overhyped media accounts
of nuclear disaster. In the early days of the pandemic, it was used to share
information on the benefits of wearing masks, at a time when the official line
from the US Surgeon General was that they were useless.
Musk seems to recognize the importance of his service to the public discourse.
He reportedly raised Japan’s high usage of the site as an example of what every
country should aspire to in a meeting with employees. It’s hard then to square
this with his plans to give “priority in replies, mentions & search” to accounts
that pay $8 a month to be verified. “Widespread verification will democratize
journalism & empower the voice of the people,” Musk said in a recent tweet. What
of those who find themselves in the midst of a disaster or a protest — and can’t
or won’t pay to be authenticated? The concept of the citizen journalist is that
they’re on the ground, ordinary people in extraordinary situations, whether
they’re Twitter Blue or not. It’s hard to see users in Japan, where most go by
anonymous account names and don’t want to be verified, paying a monthly fee
that’s more than twice what an office worker spends on the average lunch in the
expectation they might at some point contribute to catastrophe coverage. While
Twitter has become an indispensable tool for governments to distribute
information in times of crisis or for those opposing authoritarian regimes to
work around them, Musk, of course, has no obligation to provide or protect this
service. One of Twitter’s true failures was its inability to find some way to
monetize a service so useful that it should be charged for. “Twitter is All the
News,” he said in another tweet. And he’s right — Twitter became like much of
journalism has, simultaneously essential, and yet with a business model that
provides everything away for free. Something has to give. Can Musk find a way to
thread the needle of keeping Twitter’s most crucial function, and making money
from it?
China Protestors Call for End to The Chinese Communist
Party (CCP) Rule
Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute./November 29, 2022
The CCP, as the Chinese Communist Party is informally known, has now lost hearts
across the country.
China throughout the Communist period has witnessed demonstrations, but most of
them are, as Burton noted, "highly localized" and "directed at malfeasance,
corruption, and incompetence of lower level Communist functionaries."
Now, however, the anger is directed at the Party itself. In short, as evident
from the spontaneous demonstrations of the weekend, the Chinese people have had
enough of Xi Jinping and CCP rule. They recognize the fundamental fact that the
Party's system does not work.
The Chinese people are not only angry over Xi Jinping's "dynamic Zero-COVID
policy;" they are also troubled by a crumbling economy and the collapse of the
all-important property sector. New-home prices in 70 cities, for instance, fell
in October for the 14h-straight month. There have been abnormally few sales in
recent months as the market is "frozen," with big spreads between what sellers
demand and what buyers are willing to pay. These drops in prices and sales are
of great concern because some 70% of Chinese household wealth is tied up in
property. China's people, as a result, were not happy even before Thursday's
fatal blaze.
Fomenting hatred of America, to save the Communist Party from popular unrest,
would not be a big step for Xi.
The Chinese people are not only angry over President Xi Jinping's "dynamic Zero-COVID
policy;" they are also troubled by a crumbling economy. Now their anger is
directed at the Communist Party itself. In short, as evident from the
spontaneous demonstrations of the weekend, the Chinese people have had enough of
Xi Jinping and CCP rule. Pictured: Xi speaks to the media on October 23, 2022 in
Beijing. (Photo by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)
Extraordinary protests quickly spread across China over the weekend, including
major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, since a fire Thursday claimed a
reported 10 lives in an apartment block in Urumqi, in the northwestern part of
the country.
China's people were enraged by the regime's COVID controls, which had prevented
firefighters from reaching the scene of the tragedy in time. "This is people
past their breaking point," tweeted CNN's Selina Wang on Sunday.
Also on Sunday, the Telegraph's Simina Mistreanu reported on Twitter that a
crowd numbering at least 100 began marching toward Tiananmen Square, in the
heart of the Chinese capital. Police, however, stopped demonstrators after only
a few blocks, at the Liangma River. "The fact that they intended to protest at
Tiananmen," she wrote, "is wild."
Mistreanu is right. Observers say the weekend disturbances — China was quiet on
Monday — are the most significant since mass demonstrations rocked the Chinese
capital and some 370 other cities in the Beijing Spring of 1989. In many
respects, however, the ongoing protests are more dangerous to China's Communist
Party.
As Charles Burton, a China scholar at the Ottawa-based Macdonald-Laurier
Institute, told Gatestone, even the 1989 Tiananmen Movement "did not challenge
the fundamentals of Party rule over China." Protestors then only wanted
hardliners like Premier Li Peng removed to make way for "democratic reforms;" in
other words, "Party-mediated democratization of China," as Burton termed it.
Today, however, many Chinese want to get rid of the Party. As Mistreanu
reported, the demonstrators she witnessed in Beijing were chanting "We want
freedom, equality, democracy, rule of law." "We don't want dictatorship," they
shouted.
The weekend's demonstrations also resemble the protests in 1949. That year, Mao
Zedong defeated Chiang Kai-shek's ruling Nationalists. Then, Chiang commanded
far superior armies than the Communists, but his regime nonetheless quickly
fell.
Why did that happen? Chiang's Nationalists had, the acclaimed China historian Yu
Ying-shih once told me, "lost people's hearts." The CCP, as the Chinese
Communist Party is informally known, has now lost hearts across the country.
China, throughout the Communist period, has witnessed demonstrations, but most
of them are, as Burton noted, "highly localized" and "directed at malfeasance,
corruption, and incompetence of lower level Communist functionaries."
Now, however, the anger is directed at the Party itself. In short, as evident
from the spontaneous demonstrations of the weekend, the Chinese people have had
enough of Xi Jinping and CCP rule. They recognize the fundamental fact that the
Party's system does not work.
Xi cemented his position over the Communist Party at last month's 20th National
Congress, but the Party is losing control of Chinese society.
The Chinese people are not only angry over Xi's "dynamic Zero-COVID policy";
they are also troubled by a crumbling economy and the collapse of the
all-important property sector. New-home prices in 70 cities, for instance, fell
in October for the 14h-straight month. There have been abnormally few sales in
recent months as the market is "frozen," with big spreads between what sellers
demand and what buyers are willing to pay. These drops in prices and sales are
of great concern because some 70% of Chinese household wealth is tied up in
property. China's people, as a result, were not happy even before Thursday's
fatal blaze.
Popular attitudes suggest that China will remain unstable for some time. So why
should the international community care about the current instability in China?
Because China's regime might lash out.
If the Communist Party looked as if it would fall quickly, Xi could not lash
out. He would have to devote all his resources at home, deploying the People's
Liberation Army internally.
If, however, the crisis plays out over a long time, Xi will have the opportunity
to try to direct popular anger at neighboring countries or the United States and
aim the Chinese military abroad.
The world was fortunate that the Soviet Union dissolved fast, but do not expect
China to go as quickly. Xi Jinping, in a secret speech to Communist Party cadres
in December 2012 — the month after he took power as Party general secretary —
criticized Mikhail Gorbachev for allowing the Soviet state to fail. The Soviet
leader, Xi said, was not a "real man."
Xi, who does consider himself a "real man," has already during his ten years as
general secretary exacerbated xenophobia in China. Fomenting hatred of America,
to save the Communist Party from popular unrest, would not be a big step for
him.
Xi, who this weekend heard the chants demanding he step down, probably knows he
cannot win back Chinese hearts short of starting a war.
That gives everyone a direct stake in what happens next on China's streets.
*Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China, a Gatestone
Institute distinguished senior fellow, and a member of its Advisory Board.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Pakistan’s New Military Leader and the Gulf
Simon Henderson/The Washington Institute/November 29, 2022
For U.S. and Gulf officials alike, the appointment of a potential military
dictator in the world’s only nuclear-armed Islamic state bears close watching.
On November 29, Gen. Asim Munir is slated to become Pakistan’s new chief of army
staff (COAS), replacing Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif
chose Munir from a list of six candidates presented by the military, and his
calculations for that decision must have been interesting given his family’s
history with similar circumstances. Back in 1998, his elder brother and mentor
Nawaz Sharif—the prime minister at the time—chose Gen. Pervez Musharraf for the
job, only to be overthrown by a military coup a year later when he had second
thoughts and tried to fire the commander. Musharraf went on to lead the country
as dictator and then president for the next nine years, while Sharif was exiled
to Saudi Arabia (he later served as prime minister again from 2013 to 2017, and
is now based in London).
Indeed, the Gulf Arab states are where displaced Pakistani rulers often go for
sanctuary. Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto lived in Dubai for many years after
losing office and was assassinated in 2007 upon returning home. Musharraf moved
there as well after being charged with high treason by a subsequent civilian
government. Pakistan’s broader relationships with the Gulf states, including
Iran, are close but complicated. Remittances from the hundreds of thousands of
Pakistani workers in the region are an important source of revenue, while
affluent Pakistanis often head to Dubai and other locales for vacation and
medical treatment. In turn, many Emirati sheikhs fly directly to desert
airstrips in Pakistan to enjoy hunting safaris.
On the security front, Pakistan spent more than twenty years building up its
uranium-enrichment and bomb-making infrastructure via small trading companies in
the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, which served as cutouts for technology
bought clandestinely from Europe and the United States. This route was later
reversed when Pakistani nuclear secrets were proliferated to Libya and to Iran.
The extent of the military’s approval of such business is uncertain—for
instance, an autobiography published last year by another former COAS, Gen.
Mirza Aslam Beg, includes a 1989 photo of him meeting with Qasem Soleimani, the
late commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force.
Otherwise, the proliferation activity has been wholly blamed on the late
Pakistani nuclear scientist A. Q. Khan.
As for General Munir’s background, he has previously headed Inter-Services
Intelligence (ISI), the agency notorious for its past activities with the
Taliban and its sheltering of Osama bin Laden after the 9/11 attacks. More
recently, he commanded one of the army corps responsible for monitoring the
sensitive Indian front; going forward, he is expected to take an even harder
line against New Delhi than General Bajwa did. He is also noted for being deeply
religious.
Munir’s promotion coincides with a particularly turbulent time in Pakistani
politics. Former prime minister Imran Khan was voted out of office by the
National Assembly earlier this year after losing favor with military leaders,
whom many assumed had helped him win power in 2018. Khan has since been leading
mass demonstrations against the current government; he also had a different
candidate in mind for COAS. For his part, the retiring General Bajwa recently
argued that the military should not “go beyond the mandate,” but his plea for
limiting the military’s influence in domestic politics was widely met with
skepticism bordering on derision—after all, he was the commander who likely
instigated Khan’s initial success and subsequent removal.
Regarding the move’s implications for U.S. policy, the challenges are multiple,
especially because China is Islamabad’s closest ally. Yet Washington can still
help calm the brinkmanship in domestic politics, steer the military away from
confrontation with India, and urge leaders not to do anything provocative on the
lawless borders with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan and Iranian Baluchistan. At the
same time, it must help Pakistan keep its nuclear arsenal secure and block any
residual temptation to proliferate nuclear secrets, either on enrichment or
warhead design.
*Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on
Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute.
ديفيد بولوك/معهد واشنطن: من جديد، نتنياهو وحماس يتعايشان بصعوبة
Netanyahu and Hamas Set to Coexist Uneasily Again
David Pollock/The Washington Institute/November 29, 2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/113718/david-pollock-the-washington-institute-netanyahu-and-hamas-set-to-coexist-uneasily-again-%d8%af%d9%8a%d9%81%d9%8a%d8%af-%d8%a8%d9%88%d9%84%d9%88%d9%83-%d9%85%d8%b9%d9%87%d8%af-%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%b4/
The prime minister’s return to power is unlikely to change either side’s
status-quo calculations about Gaza, though Washington should still keep an eye
on potential wild cards such as spillover from Temple Mount tensions and Iranian
meddling.
As Israel’s government formation talks near a decision, Binyamin Netanyahu seems
certain to return to office as prime minister with a majority of sixty-four
Knesset members now formally in his corner. Pundits are already prognosticating
how this right-wing takeover will affect Jerusalem’s ties with Americans, Arabs,
Russians, Turks, and others.
Yet one crucial element largely missing from this discourse is the future of
Israel’s relations with Hamas and its Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) sidekicks
in Gaza, where no less than four mini-wars have been fought since December 2008.
Instead, observers have focused more on potential West Bank scenarios such as
rising tensions over Israeli settlers, the (unlikely) collapse of the
Palestinian Authority, and sporadic waves of supposedly “lone wolf” but no less
deadly terrorist attacks. Yet while all of these concerns are important, the
fact remains that for nearly two decades now, Israel’s most serious armed
confrontations with Palestinians have occurred on the southern front with Gaza.
This analytical oversight is almost certainly due to the fact that few expect
much change in the protracted stalemate between these long-time antagonists,
occasionally punctuated by sharp bursts of combat. Regardless of who ends up as
Israel’s new defense minister, the government will likely have zero interest in
pursuing—let alone initiating—another large-scale but inconclusive military
skirmish against Hamas. On the contrary, the bulk of Israeli policy toward Gaza
will likely continue to be set by the professional military and the Shin Bet,
which have long preferred a posture of “keeping the calm” there as much as
possible. Barring unexpected shocks, this probably means that Israel will
maintain, and even gradually expand, its economic lifeline to Gaza.
Currently, this lifeline includes the following: daily work and entry permits to
Israel for over 17,000 Gazans; daily permission for hundreds of heavy cargo
trucks crossing the border in both directions; supervised offshore fishing
rights; permission for regular distribution of cash and goods by the UN Relief
and Works Agency (UNRWA), Egyptian vendors, and other international and Gulf
Arab donors; and continuous provision of water and electricity. So long as Hamas
largely refrains from rocket attacks against Israel, these very tangible
incentives for continued calm can be expected to persist under a new
Netanyahu-led government.
For its part, Hamas has demonstrated its clear intention to focus inward on its
Gaza sanctuary rather than actively outward against Israel—at least for the time
being, and at least on the southern front (see below). In sharp contrast to
Palestinian Authority officials in the West Bank, Hamas leaders have generally
avoided major public denunciations of Netanyahu’s return. More concretely, just
one minor rocket attack has been launched from Gaza since his November 1
election victory. And true to form, Israel responded with just a few perfunctory
airstrikes against isolated targets. Shortly thereafter, some reports (disputed
by other sources) claimed that Hamas even arrested a handful of PIJ or other
“rogue” militants that it alleged were responsible for this breach of quiet.
In another sign of this relatively “moderate” tack, Hamas recently permitted
thousands of local Fatah supporters to publicly commemorate the anniversary of
Yasser Arafat’s death. This was the first time in many years that such a
gathering had been allowed in Gaza.
Perhaps most tellingly of all, the group has publicly acknowledged that it aims
to take the fight to Israel in the West Bank for now rather than on its own turf
in Gaza. In a television interview on the eve of Israel’s election, senior Hamas
official Mahmoud al-Zahar uttered this remarkable assertion: “I am against
conducting periodic wars in Gaza [against Israel], but there must be periodic
wars in the West Bank.” He then rationalized this position by invoking Islamic
law: “Do you think that if we have the opportunity to support our brothers in
the West Bank, we should not seize that opportunity? Is there justification in
the sharia for [not supporting them]?…We should support them with words, with
money, weapons; we can support them by helping them to better define their
vision, by praying for them from afar.” For all the reported tactical
differences among various Hamas officers and factions, none has been heard to
contradict this view lately, including the group’s leader Yahya al-Sinwar.
What Do Polls Say?
An oft-overlooked factor in the cautious calculations on both sides is public
opinion. In Israel—perhaps the most heavily surveyed population per capita in
the world—pollsters rarely ask about Gaza anymore; the topic is hardly even on
the agenda for public debate. Most citizens across the political spectrum seem
resigned to an indefinite continuation of the proverbially “unsustainable”
status quo on that front, including sporadic episodes of Palestinian rocket fire
and Israeli military responses (aka “mowing the grass”). The exceptions lie
mainly in communities bordering Gaza, which are generally outside the base of
Israel’s newly ascendant religious far right. The latter constituency and the
parties representing it are heavily oriented east toward Jerusalem and the West
Bank, not south toward Gaza.
On the other side of the border, Hamas pays pretty close attention to the
results of public opinion polls on these issues (including Washington Institute
surveys organized by the author). Although their government is certainly not a
democratic one, the group’s leaders know they are much more popular in the West
Bank than among their own subjects in Gaza, so they are wary of antagonizing the
local population any more than necessary.
Regarding views on Israel, the trends in Gazan public opinion are abundantly
clear. The latest credible survey, from June of this year, indicates that
two-thirds of the population want Hamas to preserve a ceasefire. The same
percentage want more economic ties with Israel—a thirteen-point increase since
the previous pre-COVID survey in February 2020. And just over half (53 percent)
agree with the following deliberately controversial statement (despite their
certain knowledge that it is not the politically correct view): “Hamas should
stop calling for Israel’s destruction, and accept a permanent two-state solution
based on the 1967 boundaries.”
Two Wild Cards: Temple Mount and Iran
Notwithstanding all these constraints, two wild cards from opposite ends of the
deck could conceivably upset this fragile equilibrium. The first is the
potential for major trouble on the Temple Mount/al-Haram al-Sharif in Jerusalem,
which could give Hamas an irresistible pretext to pose as the holy site’s
“defender” by launching rocket barrages at Israeli civilian targets. This risk
will grow again next spring as major Muslim and Jewish holidays approach.
Yet even actors on Israel’s newly empowered religious far right—whether Bezalel
Smotrich, Itamar Ben-Gvir, or other varieties—now seem more conscious of this
danger. For example, Smotrich, the head of the Religious Zionism party, recently
told a local audience that he has “grown up,” while Otzma Yehudit leader Ben-Gvir
has toned down his longstanding focus on the Temple Mount and concentrated more
on Hebron and other West Bank settlements/outposts, Sabbath observance, and
gender issues. In any case, Netanyahu would likely relish the role of reining in
such firebrands when it comes to the highly inflammatory Jerusalem file.
The other wild card is much further afield in Iran. Given the ongoing mass
protests against the regime, Tehran may be tempted to deflect attention by
scapegoating Israel for the crisis, perhaps firing up its PIJ and Hamas clients
in Gaza. On balance, however, the severity of this internal trouble will
probably steer the regime away from any major military escalation against Israel
right now. Instead, Iran might continue taking aim at smaller, softer, more
remote targets, such as its recent failed assassination plot against an Israeli
citizen in Georgia or its minor explosive drone strike on an Israeli-owned oil
tanker in the Gulf of Oman.
Interestingly, both Hamas and the people of Gaza appear to concur that Iran
should avoid provoking Israel too much. A senior Hamas official visiting Lebanon
this month publicly blessed Beirut’s new maritime accord with Israel, perhaps
hoping for a similar offshore natural gas deal someday. And the aforementioned
June poll showed a slim majority (55 percent) of Gazans agreeing with this bold
judgment: “Wherever Iran intervenes in the region, it hurts the local Arabs and
doesn’t help the Palestinians.”
For the longer term, the tragic truth is that no one has a satisfactory solution
for the many problems of Gaza. In the short term, however, any alarmism about
how Netanyahu’s election might affect these issues is almost surely misplaced.
In other words, the United States and other interested parties have a bit more
space to deal with pressing issues on other fronts.
*David Pollock is the Bernstein Fellow at The Washington Institute and director
of Fikra Forum.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/netanyahu-and-hamas-set-coexist-uneasily-again