English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For November 24/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.november24.22.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
Whoever does the will of my Father in heaven is my brother and sister and mother
Saint Matthew 12/46-50: “While he was still speaking to the
crowds, his mother and his brothers were standing outside, wanting to speak to
him. Someone told him, ‘Look, your mother and your brothers are standing
outside, wanting to speak to you.’ But to the one who had told him this, Jesus
replied, ‘Who is my mother, and who are my brothers?’And pointing to his
disciples, he said, ‘Here are my mother and my brothers! For whoever does the
will of my Father in heaven is my brother and sister and mother.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on November
23-24/2022
Lebanon Is Totally Occupied by Iran, and its Mercenary Local Terrorist
Proxy, Hezbollah/Elias Bejjani/November 22/2022
Blinken says US to continue to 'stand with the Lebanese people'
Report: Safa did not discuss presidential file with army chief
Sunni bloc lawmaker lashes out at Geagea
Depositors storm three banks across Lebanon
Bank raids return as Lebanese confront economic crisis
Khalil: Fees on imports to be collected at LBP 15,000 rate as of Dec.
Geagea: Only way for salvation is election of salvation president
Kanaan: Let's keep oil at sea if sovereign fund won't be sovereign
Lebanon Seeks $5 Mn to Broadcast World Cup on National TV
Lebanon's tricky search for a consensus to pick a president/Michael Young/The
National/November 23/2022
Headache of State/Michael Young/Carnegie MEC/November 23, 2022
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on November
23-24/2022
Pope compares Russia's war in Ukraine to 1930s famine inflicted
One killed and 19 wounded in Jerusalem bus stop bombings
Canada Intensifies Sanctions on Iran, But Further Action Needed
Iran Caught Again Trying to Kill Israeli Civilians Abroad
Israeli Lawmaker Calls for ‘Targeted Assassinations’ against Palestinians
Explosion Near Damascus Kills Iranian Revolutionary Guards Colonel
UN should launch probe into human rights violations in Iran, HRW
Eight Reasons Behind European 'Belated Recognition' of Iran’s Threat
Casualties in Kyiv and power outages in Ukraine and Moldova after new strikes
Some Russian commanders knew of sexual violence or encouraged it, says lawyer
advising Kyiv
Britain: Russia Has Nearly Exhausted Stock of Iran-made Weapons
Russian missile strikes knock out power in Kyiv region
In front of Putin, Armenian leader laments lack of help from Russian-led
alliance
Ukraine war: How Germany ended reliance on Russian gas
Chechens fighting for Ukraine see chance to 'free' their homeland
Turkey vows intent 'stronger than ever' to secure Syrian border
Egyptian Copts set to begin Christmas fast
Turkish strike hits Russian base in northeast Syria
Kurds — stateless people under attack from all sides
Titles For The
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on November
23-24/2022
Iran Aids Russia’s Imperialist War Against Ukraine/John Hardie/The Algemeiner/November
23/2022
Liberty Is Worth the Fight/J.B. Shurk/ Gatestone Institute/November 23/2022
Iran’s Drones Are Western-Made/Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/November,
23/2022
Thoughts Around the Terror Attack in Istanbul/Omer Onhon/Asharq Al-Awsat/November,
23/2022
Even a Small Nuclear War Would Mean Mass Famine/Faye Flam/Bloomberg/November,
23/2022
on November
23-24/2022
Lebanon Is Totally Occupied by Iran, and its Mercenary Local Terrorist Proxy,
Hezbollah
Elias Bejjani/November 22/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/113551/113551/
We, the Lebanese people in Lebanon, and the Diaspora, are
supposed to celebrate today, our country's independence day, but sadly we are
not able to do so because, Lebanon, the land of the Holy Cedars, and 7000 years
deeply rooted glory, holiness and history is an occupied, impoverished, and
oppressed country by all means.
The stone age savage occupier, is the terrorist Iranian mercenary criminal and
armed proxy, the Hezbollah militia.
This terrorist armed militia controls totally Lebanon's decision making process
on all levels, and in all domains, including its borders with both Syrian and
Israel, as well as the peace and war one.
Meanwhile the majority of the Lebanese officials, if not all, as well as the
politicians are mere corrupted mercenaries appointed by Hezbollah, and like
puppets carry its wishes and orders.
The USA and all other democratic countries can help Lebanon and the Lebanese
people in reclaiming back their confiscated independence, and stolen country
through a strong, loud and official stance in practically and not only
rhetorically supporting the immediate implementation of the three UN resolutions
that addresses Lebanon's crisis: the armistice agreement, 1559 and 1701.
The Lebanese people after all these years of bloody, destructive, evil and
savage occupation, are unable on their own to liberate their country, without a
real and clear practical military and political support from the UN, and all the
democratic countries..
We call on the Free World to Help liberate Lebanon, before
it is too late.
In conclusion, Lebanon and the Lebanese people are kidnapped by the notorious
Iranian Mullah's rogue-pariah regime, and by its terrorist local mercenary
militia, Hezbollah.
The Lebanese and their country are taken hostages, oppressed, persecuted,
deprived of basic life needs and impoverished.
May Almighty God bless and safeguard Lebanon, and grant its oppressed people the
faith, perseverance, power and will to stay tall as their Holy Cedars, and keep
on struggling to reclaim it back from both, Hezbollah and its Iranian terrorist
masters.
Blinken says US to continue to 'stand with the Lebanese
people'
Naharnet/Wednesday, 23 November, 2022
On behalf of the United States of America, U.S. Secretary of State Antony
Blinken has extended his “sincerest wishes to the people of Lebanon on their
Independence Day,” which Lebanon marks on November 22 each year. “The Lebanese
people are renowned for their rich and dynamic culture, and we recognize the
resilience they have exhibited the past 79 years in confronting a series of
critical challenges,” Blinken said in a statement. “The United States will
continue to stand with the Lebanese people in our shared ambition for a better
future,” he stressed. The U.S. had recently sponsored a landmark agreement
between Lebanon and Israel for the demarcation of their maritime border. The
deal will allow Lebanon to explore for gas and oil in its waters amid a historic
economic and financial crisis.
Report: Safa did not discuss presidential file with army
chief
Naharnet/Wednesday, 23 November, 2022
The recent meeting between Hezbollah official Wafiq Safa and Army chief General
Joseph Aoun did not tackle the presidential file, sources informed on the
meeting said. Describing the meeting as one of the “periodic meetings” between
Aoun and Safa, the sources told Asharq al-Awsat newspaper in remarks published
Wednesday that “the meeting is not the first between Safa and General Aoun.”
Such meetings “usually take place for coordinative matters” and the latest one
“did not tackle the presidential file at all,” the sources added.
Sunni bloc lawmaker lashes out at Geagea
Naharnet/Wednesday, 23 November, 2022
MP Ahmed al-Kheir of the mainly Sunni National Moderation bloc has lashed out at
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea without naming him, two days before a new
presidential election session. Describing Geagea as
“the sponsor of the worst presidential settlement,” in reference to the
understanding he reached with Michel Aoun prior to the latter’s election, Kheir
accused the LF leader of seeking to install himself as the “spiritual guide of
the opposition.”He also charged that Geagea is seeking to usurp the opinion of
the Sunni component in parliament. Informed sources told the PSP’s al-Anbaa news
portal that Kheir’s tweet indicates that the dispute that preceded the
parliamentary elections between Geagea and the Sunni community has returned, as
the LF leader seeks to rally the opposition behind MP Michel Mouawad’s
presidential nomination. Ex-MP Imad Wakim of the LF meanwhile told al-Anbaa that
such stances are not beneficial, stressing that “no one is trying to be the
opposition’s godfather.”
Depositors storm three banks across Lebanon
Naharnet/Wednesday, 23 November, 2022
Three banks were stormed Wednesday by three depositors in various Lebanese
regions. In the southern city of Tyre, the depositor Reda Reda stormed Bank
Audi, demanding money for the treatment of his cancer-stricken mother, the
Lebanese Depositors Association said. Another depositor, Dr. Anis Tannous,
meanwhile staged a sit-in outside SGBL bank in the northern town of Amioun,
preventing anyone from entering or exiting the bank. The man was demanding the
transfer of university tuition fees to his son in the United States.
And in the northern city of Tripoli, the depositor Amina Mohammed stormed
IBL Bank, demanding money from her deposit for carrying out a surgery for his
disabled mother. As the small country’s crippling
economic crisis continues to worsen, a growing number of Lebanese depositors
have opted to break into banks and forcefully withdraw their trapped savings.
Lebanon's cash-strapped banks have imposed informal limits on cash withdrawals.
The break-ins reflect growing public anger toward the banks and the authorities
who have struggled to reform the country's corrupt and battered economy.
Three-quarters of the population has plunged into poverty in an economic crisis
that the World Bank describes as one of the worst in over a century. Meanwhile,
the Lebanese pound has lost 90% of its value against the dollar, making it
difficult for millions across the country to cope with skyrocketing prices. The
general public has commended the angry depositors, some even hailing them as
heroes. The banks, however, have condemned the heists, and urged the Lebanese
government to provide security personnel. The banks had partially reopened in
September after a week-long closure, introducing an appointments system and
hiring security guards.
Bank raids return as Lebanese confront economic crisis
Najia Houssari/Arab News/November 23, 2022
BEIRUT: Two attempted bank holdups and a sit-in protest on Wednesday highlighted
the growing desperation of Lebanese people grappling with the country’s
worsening economic crisis. Bank raids by depositors demanding their money have
been relatively infrequent during the past two months, but a string of incidents
in recent days has again raised fears of growing unrest. In the third action
against a bank in a single day, Amina Mohammad broke into a branch of the
Intercontinental Bank of Lebanon in Tripoli demanding access to her savings to
pay for an operation for her elderly mother.
The bank was forced to close its doors while staff negotiated with Mohammad and
her mother. Earlier, a former soldier, Rida Rida, stormed into a branch of Bank
Audi in Tyre, southern Lebanon, demanding his $15,000 deposit to pay for cancer
treatment for his mother.
Patrols from army intelligence and the security were sent to the bank while Rida
outlined his demands to the bank’s manager. In the first incident of the day,
Anis Tannous staged a sit-in outside the Societe Generale de Banque au Liban
branch in Amioun, northern Lebanon, stopping people from entering or leaving the
bank. Tannous demanded the bank transfer his son’s university tuition fee to the
US.
Two days ago, another depositor, Hussein Ramadan, and his mother stormed into
the Al-Baraka Bank in Hamra, Beirut, in a bid to reclaim $132,000 in savings.
After hours of negotiations, the bank agreed to pay the pair $15,000. The
dismissal of employees has taken a tragic turn, too, with one man attempting to
commit suicide using a military weapon in front of his former workplace in Jnah
in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Security forces arrived immediately and detained
the man. Lebanon is in the grip of what the World Bank believes could rank among
the top three financial crises in modern history.
Meanwhile, caretaker Finance Minister Youssef Khalil said on Wednesday that his
ministry will start calculating foreign exchange rates for taxes and fees
collected by the customs department on imported goods based on the exchange rate
of 15,000 Lebanese pounds to the dollar as of Dec. 1, a few weeks before the
start of the holiday season.
The measure will “help limit the exploitation of price differences, and reduce
the distortions and losses incurred by the treasury,” he said. Observers believe
that traders anticipated this measure by storing hundreds of tons of goods
imported under exchange rate in place before the onset of Lebanon’s economic
woes.The rate at that time was 1,500 Lebanese pounds to the dollar. Imports in
the first seven months of this year alone totalled $10.5 billion, while total
imports for the year are expected to reach $18 billion — a record approaching
pre-crisis levels. Last year import activity totalled $13.6 billion, a
surprising figure in a country facing collapse and a high poverty rate, and
begging the International Monetary Fund for $3 billion. Lebanese are convinced
that the government, particularly the Ministry of Economy and Trade, is unable
to control the price of goods after the application of the customs dollar to
duties and taxes, resulting in exploitation by traders. Revenues of goods, for
which duties and taxes are paid by consumers, will go into traders’ pockets
rather than the treasury, many say. Riad Salameh, the central bank governor,
said on Monday that the bank will adopt an exchange rate of 15,000 Lebanese
pounds to the dollar from Feb. 1 as part of a process to unify the country’s
multiple exchange-rate system. Commenting on whether the measure will lead to an
increase or decrease in the exchange rate, Salameh said: “This will be
determined by the market according to supply and demand, but the central bank
will be on the lookout.”MP Michel Daher said that “strict measures should be
taken to absorb the excess liquidity that may be caused by the decision to
increase the exchange rate.”He warned “the exchange rate will skyrocket to over
LBP 75,000 if it is accompanied by an ongoing presidential vacuum.” According to
bank data, Lebanese withdrew about $70 billion, mostly from small and
medium-sized accounts, between 2019 and 2021.
Khalil: Fees on imports to be collected at LBP 15,000 rate
as of Dec.
Naharnet/Wednesday, 23 November, 2022
The LBP 15,000 dollar exchange rate for fees and taxes on imported goods will
enter into effect as of December 1, 2022, caretaker Finance Minister Youssef
Khalil said on Wednesday. “This measure contributes to curbing the exploitation
of price differences and limiting the deficiencies and losses that the treasury
is incurring,” Khalil added in a statement. Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh
had confirmed Monday that the official exchange rate for the Lebanese lira
against the dollar and circulars 151 and 158 of the central bank will be hiked
to LBP 15,000 as of February 1, 2023. “Today we have entered a phase of unifying
exchange rates and this had started with the ‘customs dollar’ that the Finance
Ministry is deciding about along with the other fees and taxes,” Salameh said in
an interview on al-Hurra TV.
Geagea: Only way for salvation is election of salvation
president
Naharnet/Wednesday, 23 November, 2022
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea stressed Wednesday that the only way to
achieve Lebanon’s “salvation” would be through the election of a “salvation
president.”“The LF is working for the rise of a real state in Lebanon,” Geagea
said in a meeting with a Chinese delegation led by Qian Hongshan, a deputy
director of the International Department of the Central Committee of the Chinese
Communist Party. The LF “believes that the only way for salvation would be the
election of a salvation president who can restore the state’s prestige and carry
on with reforms and the fight against corruption and waste,” the LF leader
added.
Kanaan: Let's keep oil at sea if sovereign fund won't be
sovereign
Naharnet/Wednesday, 23 November, 2022
The head of the Finance Parliamentary Committee, MP Ibrahim Kanaan, announced
Wednesday that “remarkable progress” has been made in the discussions related to
the establishment of a sovereign fund to manage Lebanon’s offshore oil and gas
resources. “We are working on merging four draft laws… and we have reached
Article 10 and all articles related to its establishment have been approved,”
Kanaan said after a session. “There won’t be a splitting of shares in the
sovereign fund and if the fund won’t be sovereign, let’s keep the oil at sea,”
the MP added.
Lebanon Seeks $5 Mn to Broadcast World Cup on National
TV
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 23 November, 2022
The Lebanese authorities were unable to reach a legal agreement that gives the
Lebanese free access to watch the World Cup 2022, amid a vacuum at the top state
post and a caretaker cabinet with limited powers to take such decisions.
Officials failed at clinching an agreement to secure a $5 million payment to the
related organization to get the broadcast rights on national television. Lebanon
is grappling with an unprecedented economic and financial crisis that left it
facing a number of challenges, albeit securing funds for the broadcast rights of
the World Cup. By the constitution, the caretaker government can only convene in
urgent circumstances. In an attempt to solve the broadcast rights issue,
caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and caretaker Information Minister Ziad
Makari made some efforts to secure the funds, but have failed at finding a
mechanism that allows the decision to be passed without the government having to
convene. “Lebanon faces two obstacles,” the constitutional expert Said Malek
told Asharq al-Awsat on the matter. “The first, has to do with the vacuum at the
top state post, and the second is the fact that the government is in a caretaker
capacity, meaning a resigned cabinet.”“According to Article 62 of the
constitution, the cabinet can substitute for the President in case of absence.
But this is not possible today because the cabinet can not convene, as that
would require an urgency which is not the case here,” he added.
Political factions in Lebanon are divided over the distribution of ministerial
portfolios which has so far left the country without a government. The tenure of
former President Michel Aoun ended on October 31.
Moreover, Director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, Sami Nader,
said in remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat: “The Lebanese state is grappling with an
unprecedented crisis. It has been unable to perform major services... so it is
undoubtedly unable to provide luxurious ones like providing free broadcast for
the Lebanese to watch the World Cup.”
مايكل يونغ /ذا ناشيونال: بحث لبنان الصعب والمعقد عن
التوافق لاختيار رئيس للجمهورية
Lebanon's tricky search for a consensus to pick a president
Michael Young?The National/November 23/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/113598/michael-young-the-national-lebanons-tricky-search-for-a-consensus-to-pick-a-president-%d9%85%d8%a7%d9%8a%d9%83%d9%84-%d9%8a%d9%88%d9%86%d8%ba-%d8%b0%d8%a7-%d9%86%d8%a7%d8%b4%d9%8a%d9%88%d9%86/
Three major communities in the country are defining the
presidency in their own way
According to the constitution, the president, who by custom is always a Maronite
Christian, is described as “the head of state and the symbol of the nation’s
unity". His or her main purpose is to “safeguard the constitution and Lebanon’s
independence, unity, and territorial integrity".
While there is much in this formulation that is open to interpretation, there is
also a refreshing clarity in that a president has responsibilities to which all
Lebanese communities and factions can, or should, agree. You would have thought
so, at least.
Yet in the last 10 days, several communal representatives, namely Hezbollah’s
secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, and three former prime ministers, have
sought to define the kind of president they would view as ideal. Lebanon is in
the midst of a presidential vacuum, after the end of Michel Aoun’s term, and the
country’s many political forces have yet to agree on a successor.
While the preferred guidelines that have been announced do not necessarily
contradict the constitution, it is revealing that everyone should still be
defining the role of the presidency, sometimes beyond what the constitution
mandates. If anything illustrates how far Lebanon’s political forces have
drifted away from a document that should reflect a national consensus, it is the
divisive way they continue to impose conditions on its fundamental provisions.
In a speech on November 11, Nasrallah declared that Hezbollah sought a president
“who reassures” those backing the resistance. He must be someone “who will not
sell” the resistance, “scare it, or plot against it". Hezbollah wants a
president “who is courageous", and will not tremble if the US embassy, State
Department, or US Central Command “shouts at him”.
Nasrallah’s comments were part of a more complicated process of advancing the
fortunes of the party’s favourite candidate – by all accounts Suleiman Franjieh
– at a time when its major Christian ally, Gebran Bassil, is seeking Hezbollah’s
endorsement for his candidacy. But it is also more than that. What Nasrallah
effectively did was impose a para-constitutional filter on all potential
presidents, which effectively alters the constitution’s meaning.
Hezbollah’s main rival, the Lebanese Forces, has not acted very differently.
Weeks ago, the party’s leader, Samir Geagea, declared that he would support a
“confrontation president", one who would oppose “everyone who has ruined their
lives". However, Mr Geagea has made clear many times since then that the main
target to “confront” was Hezbollah and its allies.
By affirming their contrasting approaches, both Nasrallah and Mr Geagea paid
little heed to the central role of the president as a “symbol of the nation’s
unity". Neither of their projects will help unity, despite their belief in the
contrary. To many Lebanese, Hezbollah’s resistance project is little more than a
facade to ensure continued Iranian control over their country. As for Mr Geagea,
most Lebanese would regard his ambition as placing Lebanon on a path to civil
war.
In the wake of Nasrallah’s speech, three present and former prime ministers, who
convene frequently to co-ordinate their positions, met on November 14 at prime
minister-designate Najib Mikati’s home and outlined their vision of a president.
They expressed support for a president “strong through his wisdom who should
enjoy the backing and confidence of all Lebanese, not just one specific group".
They went on to say that the president “should respect the constitution, the
Taif Accord, and resolutions of the UN Security Council and the Arab League".
The prime ministers are all from the Sunni community, and their effort to defend
the Saudi-sponsored Taif Accord and Security Council and Arab League decisions
was clearly a riposte to Nasrallah’s speech, despite the denials of one of the
three participants, Fouad Al Sanioura. Affirming Lebanon’s Arab identity has
long been a cornerstone of the Sunni community, at a time when Hezbollah has
sought to limit Lebanon’s ties with the Gulf states in particular.
Given these very different perceptions of what a president should be, it is no
surprise that post-war presidents have fallen into two categories: They have
either been figures who have had to satisfy all the major political actors,
leaving them with almost no latitude to advance an agenda of their own; or they
have sought to satisfy Hezbollah (and previously Syria) against a large segment
of hostile Lebanese, dividing the country even more.
The simple reality is that Lebanon is so disunited over the most fundamental
aspects of its social contract, that its head of state, whoever he or she is,
cannot possibly be effective as a leader. Which makes one wonder why so many
Maronites are willing to virtually destroy the country to get the job. But more
profoundly, a normal country that cannot agree on what the president’s role is
should seek harmony over a new social contract, then amend its constitution
accordingly.
However, Lebanon today is not a normal country and no new national consensus
seems remotely possible. That is why the presidency, towards which many Lebanese
are looking, has become far more a symptom of the country’s ills than an
institution that can help resolve them.
https://www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comment/2022/11/23/lebanons-tricky-search-for-a-consensus-to-pick-a-president/
Headache of State
Michael Young/Carnegie MEC/November 23, 2022
The path out of Lebanon’s presidential impasse remains unclear, highlighting the
boundaries of Hezbollah’s influence.
It has been an uneasy three weeks for Gebran Bassil, since his father in law
Michel Aoun left Lebanon’s presidency. Bassil, who had excelled in coattail
politics—riding the coattails of others more powerful than he—suddenly
discovered that he had no coattails to ride. Aoun is no longer in a position of
authority to block government decisions and increase Bassil’s leverage in
internal disputes over governmental matters; and Hezbollah, with whom Aoun and
Bassil built a political alliance in 2006, has made it clear that it would not
support him today in the one endeavor that matters most to Bassil, namely
succeeding Aoun as president.
By most accounts, Bassil and Hezbollah parted ways on the presidency several
weeks ago, at a meeting between Bassil and the party’s secretary general, Hassan
Nasrallah. Reportedly, Nasrallah asked Bassil to support the candidate that
Hezbollah appears to favor, Suleiman Franjieh. Bassil is said to have refused
and to have asked that Hezbollah back him instead. Since then, there has been
little progress among Lebanon’s political forces to find a replacement for Aoun,
leaving the country in yet another debilitating institutional deadlock.
What has been particularly evident, however, is Bassil’s inability to read the
situation properly. All his hopes rested on the fact that, with Aoun in office
and Hezbollah as his ally, he had enough cards to be elected president. It never
dawned on him that the highly contentious six years of Aoun’s presidency, when
the Aounists alienated most of the leading figures in Lebanon’s political
cartel, would push Hezbollah to opt for a different path. With economic
conditions having deteriorated in the past three years, the last thing the party
wanted to manage was another presidential term characterized by incessant
political schisms.
The Aounists have long portrayed themselves as the sole force standing against
the corrupt postwar cartel. Their main bugbear has been the speaker of
parliament, Nabih Berri, a leading light of the political class. There is no
doubt that this cartel has led Lebanon to financial ruin. But it’s equally true
that Aoun and Bassil never sought to fight the cartel, but instead pined to
become influential members of it—benefiting from its patronage and corruption
networks, while using their sham maverick status as a means of rallying
supporters.
Above all, both Aoun and Bassil always had their eye on the presidency. Back
when he headed a military government in 1988–1990, Aoun had declared a “war of
liberation” against Syrian forces in Lebanon, before agreeing that
parliamentarians attend a conference in Taif, Saudi Arabia, to end the Lebanese
conflict. When the parliamentarians came back with a constitutional agreement,
but otherwise failed to make Aoun president, he rejected Taif and within months
had launched another war, this time against the Lebanese Forces militia.
However, during his eleven years of exile in France, the presidency never left
Aoun’s mind.
Aoun fulfilled this ambition after his return to Lebanon in 2005, following the
Syrian withdrawal. He did so by entering into an alliance with Hezbollah,
believing the party would eventually force the political class to elect him
president. His gamble worked. Hezbollah realized that by supporting a Maronite
Christian with communal popularity, it could both divide the forces that had
opposed Syria in 2005 and guarantee cross-sectarian cover for itself.
Bassil learned that lesson well, but presumed too much that the influence he
enjoyed over his father in law could carry over to Hezbollah. While the party
seeks to maintain ties with the Aounists—indeed it was instrumental in giving
them votes in parliamentary elections last May that allowed Bassil to maintain a
significant legislative bloc—there are red lines. The party does not care for
Bassil’s animosity toward Berri, a fellow Shia, and will not divide Shia ranks
to satisfy Bassil’s presidential fantasies. That Bassil cannot see this only
highlights his hubris.
If Hezbollah wants Franjieh as president, it is possible that it could scrounge
up the 64 votes necessary to give him a majority in a second round of voting in
parliament. However, that would require two things: that Walid Jumblatt’s bloc
vote for him, and that some members of the Aounist bloc, and perhaps some
members of the change bloc that emerged from the 2019 uprising, also do so.
While Jumblatt is likely to go along with Franjieh if momentum builds up to
elect him, at this moment in time the 64 votes remain elusive. That is why
Hezbollah has not declared openly for Franjieh, fearing that it could lead to a
break with Bassil, but also close off avenues of compromise over alternative
candidates.
As the presidency is held by a Maronite Christian, having the support of a large
Maronite bloc (Bassil leads one, while the rival Lebanese Forces control
another) is seen as a requirement to give a new president legitimacy among his
coreligionists. Bassil believes that any candidate that Hezbollah chooses,
including Franjieh, would need his backing, since the Lebanese Forces are
unlikely to vote in favor of someone the party endorses. Therefore, his aim is
to impose enough conditions on that candidate to guarantee his sway over a new
administration and government, thereby preparing for his own election in six
years’ time.
However, no president wants to begin his term under Bassil’s thumb, and that is
certainly true of Franjieh. Hezbollah, too, must know that such an arrangement
would only guarantee continued domestic discord. At a time when the party’s base
is suffering from the repercussions of economic stalemate in a country whose
finances have collapsed, when Hezbollah sees its main regional sponsor, Iran,
facing a serious and durable domestic uprising, and when a rightwing government
will soon take office in Israel, Nasrallah does not want to have to deal with
the distraction of sterile political disputations at home.
The most probable options at this stage are that Hezbollah will see whether it
can build momentum behind Franjieh. This would involve waiting for a signal that
Saudi Arabia has no problems with him, which could push Jumblatt and opponents
of Hezbollah to shift their position on Franjieh. If that were to happen,
Hezbollah might declare publicly for him and try to build a coalition to get
Franjieh elected, with or without the major Christian blocs’ support.
A second option would be for the party to conclude that Franjieh is unable to
secure a sufficient number of the 64 votes he needs to win, therefore that it is
best to look for another candidate around which a consensus can be reached. In
that case, the prospects of the army commander, Joseph Aoun, might rise, given
that he could win support from a wider coalition of forces than Franjieh, and
almost certainly would benefit from regional and international approval. Yet
that is precisely what bothers Hezbollah. As Nasrallah made clear in a recent
speech, Hezbollah wants a president who will not make any deals at the party’s
expense, so it remains wary of anyone who has the connections to act
independently of the party.
If Hezbollah rules Aoun out, the search will be on for a third candidate
acceptable to all, but with one major caveat. Anyone from outside the political
class would arrive with legitimacy problems, therefore would need to gain the
support of a major Christian bloc. As Hezbollah is the leading elector, it would
want that bloc to be made up of the Aounists and their allies. In other words,
the candidate would probably have to bow to Bassil’s conditions. Yet all that
would do is bring us back to square-one, since most members of the political
class, Berri above all, do not want Bassil to have any influence over a new
president. Nor would Hezbollah itself be overly comfortable dealing with a
candidate they don’t know.
So, for better or worse, realistically we are down to two candidates, Franjieh
and Joseph Aoun. What is strange about this election is that Hezbollah is not in
a position to ignore the messy bargaining around who will become head of state.
It remains unclear whether Franjieh has the votes to make it to the presidency,
and it’s also uncertain whether Hezbollah will want to go so far as to prevent
Aoun from being elected. This provides a useful lesson for all those who argue
that Lebanon is Hezbollah and Hezbollah is Lebanon. Sectarian politics are
rarely so simple.
*Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the
views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily
reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
https://carnegie-mec.org/diwan/88475?utm_source=rssemail&utm_medium=email&mkt_tok=ODEzLVhZVS00MjIAAAGIREM7tSBHOUAk5wweaKG-q33Z5Tnl-b13mx3csKdh7-ca5HfCJzlYDpbMujiZOy_94rAxLrrjNNMcNX8p4FsVv3bToSaWiR1eHCYGhqE
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on November
23-24/2022
Pope compares Russia's war in Ukraine to
1930s famine inflicted
Philip Pullella/VATICAN CITY (Reuters)/Wednesday, 23 November, 2022
Pope Francis said on Wednesday that Ukrainians were suffering today from the
"martyrdom of aggression" and compared Russia's war in Ukraine to the "terrible
genocide" of the 1930s, when Soviet leader Josef Stalin inflicted famine on the
country. Francis, speaking to thousands of people in St. Peter's Square in his
weekly general audience, mentioned the "Holodomor", or death by starvation, in
which millions of Ukrainians died. "This Saturday marks the anniversary of the
terrible genocide of the Holodomor, the extermination by famine of 1932-33 that
was artificially caused by Stalin," he said. "Let us pray for the victims of
this genocide and let us pray for so many Ukrainians - children, women, elderly
- who are today suffering the martyrdom of aggression," he said. For hundreds of
years, the Ukrainian language and any expression of Ukrainian culture and
independent identity were quashed, first under the Russian Empire of the tsars
and later by the Soviets. The Holodomor was a result of Stalin's efforts to
collectivise agriculture and root out Ukraine's fledgling nationalist movement.
Since Russia invaded its neighbour in February, Francis has mentioned Ukraine in
nearly all his public appearances and has warned several times that the crisis
risks triggering the use of nuclear weapons, with uncontrollable global
consequences. Last month the pope for the first time directly begged Russian
President Vladimir Putin to stop the "spiral of violence and death" in Ukraine.
One killed and 19 wounded in Jerusalem bus stop bombings
The National/November 23/2022
Second blast occurred at the city's Ramot Junction
A teenager was killed and 19 people wounded in bombings at Jerusalem bus stops
in what Israel is labelling as suspected Palestinian attacks. Several people
were in critical condition after a first explosion wounded 11 at a bus stop in
west Jerusalem. At least 8 people were wounded in a later blast at a bus stop
near a busy intersection. One person died in hospital, police confirmed. Several
are in critical condition. Israeli media identified the victim as a 16-year-old
Canadian student enrolled at an Orthodox Jewish seminary. The blasts came just
hours after Israeli forces killed a 16-year-old Palestinian during a night-time
raid in the occupied West Bank. Tensions are high since a string of Palestinian
attacks in Israel earlier this year in which 19 people were killed, prompting
almost daily Israeli raids into Palestinian territory. At least another 10
Israelis were killed in recent attacks.
At least 100 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank this year, making it
the worst year for violence there since 2015. Police
said Wednesday's bombs were activated remotely and could have killed many more
people.
Magen David Adom, Israel’s ambulance service, said they treated seven patients
and transferred many wounded to various Jerusalem hospitals. At least one
explosives expert was seen at the scene of the blast at the bus stop, according
to witnesses.
The blasts come as Israel prepares to usher in a new government, poised to be
one of the most right wing in its history. Legislator
Itamar Ben-Gvir, a key member of prime minister-elect Benjamin Netanyahu's
winning bloc, called for tougher action on Palestinian attackers in the wake of
the bombings.
"It's time to take a hard hand against terrorists, it's time to make order," he
wrote on Twitter. He later travelled to the site of one of the blasts, telling a
crowd: "We must exact a price from terrorism. We must return to targeted
killings, we must impose a curfew on the village from which the terrorists came,
we must stop the camps in the security prisons.""It's time to establish a
right-wing government as soon as possible. Terror does not wait," he added.
Despite an increase in violence in the Israeli-occupied West Bank this
year, bombing attacks have become very rare since the end of the so-called
Second Intifada nearly two decades ago, a five-year period of violence that left
3,000 Palestinians and 1,000 Israelis dead. The Otzma Yehudit chief was
previously banned from public office for inciting racism, and has called for the
death penalty for Palestinian attackers.
This year is the deadliest in the West Bank since 2006, with more than 130
killed so far as Israel continues crackdowns in what it says is an attempt to
root out terrorist groups responsible for attacks on Israeli soldiers and
civilians. Israel captured the West Bank in the 1967 Middle East war, and has
since maintained a military occupation over the territory and settled more than
500,000 people there. It is expected to legalise more Israeli outposts once the
new government is confirmed. Also on Wednesday, Defence Minister Benny Gantz
announced the closure of checkpoints to the West Bank town of Jenin as the army
demanded Palestinians return the body of an Israeli Druze man killed in a car
crash. The Gilboa and Salem checkpoints, used daily by
thousands of Palestinians who work in Israel, were closed after the remains of a
high school student were taken from a Jenin hospital. Other Israelis injured in
the accident had been transferred to a hospital in Haifa.
“The body was taken from the hospital in Jenin and is expected to be
returned to Israel shortly, as a required humanitarian act,” the military said.
Jenin has been a flashpoint for violence in recent months as Israel targets the
Jenin Brigades, which it says is behind some of the recent attacks in Israel. It
has launched similar crackdowns in Nablus, home to the Lion's Den group which
has claimed responsibility for several attacks.
Sixteen people were arrested in Israeli raids in Nablus on Wednesday morning,
the army said. Israel says its almost nightly arrest raids in the West Bank are
needed to dismantle militant networks at a time when the Palestinian security
forces are unable or unwilling to do so. The Palestinians say the raids
undermine their security forces and are aimed at cementing Israel’s open-ended
55-year occupation of lands Palestinians want for an independent state.
Canada Intensifies Sanctions on Iran, But Further Action
Needed
FDD/November 23/2022
Latest Developments
The Canadian Security Intelligence Service is investigating Iranian death
threats against Canadians who have publicly criticized Tehran, the spy agency
said last week. The announcement appears to reflect Ottawa’s increasing efforts
to hold Iran accountable for its bloody suppression of anti-regime protests.
Last Wednesday, Canada imposed its fifth round of sanctions this year against
regime targets pursuant to the Special Economic Measures Act, bringing Ottawa’s
total number of designations to 280. However, Ottawa has stopped short of
perhaps the most impactful step it could take: designating Iran’s Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization pursuant to
Canada’s Criminal Code.
Expert Analysis
“If Canada’s goal is to have a real impact, to thwart the rampant human rights
abuses of the Iranian people, to meaningfully deter threats from Iran’s
Revolutionary Guards abroad, to stem the use of Canada for laundering money by
regime cronies, and to begin to see cracks in the regime itself, sanctions need
to have more teeth and be fully enforced.” – Toby Dershowitz, FDD Senior Vice
President for Government Relations and Strategy
Iran’s Violent Repression of Protests Continues
Iranian security forces have killed at least 434 protesters, including 60
children, and arrested 17,473 people over the past two months, the Human Rights
Activists News Agency reported on Monday. Over the weekend, in a massive show of
force, Iranian military forces penetrated Iran’s Kurdish regions with
helicopters and armored vehicles, killing an unknown number of people. “I have
witnessed hundreds of people being shot at [by the regime forces] and they have
been severely injured,” said one Iranian. On Monday, the IRGC reportedly opened
fire on protesters using machine guns.
Canadian Sanctions on Iran Pursuant to the Immigration and Refugee Protection
Act
On November 14, Canada designated Iran under the Immigration and Refugee
Protection Act as a regime that has engaged in terrorism and systematic and
gross human rights violations. Complementing Iran’s 280 other sanctions
designations, this step renders tens of thousands of senior regime members,
including many IRGC members, inadmissible to Canada. It also makes current and
former senior Iranian officials residing in Canada eligible for investigation
and removal from the country.
Canada Needs Stronger Measures against Iran
Canada has yet to designate the IRGC as a terrorist group pursuant to the
Criminal Code — the toughest measure in Ottawa’s sanctions toolkit. Canada has
also refrained from sanctioning Iran’s oil industry as well as financial
institutions such as the Central Bank of Iran that hold accounts for the IRGC.
In 2012, Canada did designate the IRGC Quds Force — but not the IRGC in its
entirety — as a terrorist organization under the Criminal Code. In 2018, the
House of Commons overwhelmingly passed a resolution urging the government to
sanction the entire IRGC pursuant to the Criminal Code.
Iran Caught Again Trying to Kill Israeli Civilians Abroad
FDD/November 23/2022
Latest Developments
Georgia’s state security announced last Tuesday the arrest of a Pakistani
national affiliated with al-Qaeda and of two Iranian nationals who attempted to
murder a prominent Israeli in the capital of Tbilisi. An Israeli media report,
citing an unnamed Israeli security official, said the Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Quds Force orchestrated the assassination attempt, which
sought to target Israeli-Georgian businessman Itzik Moshe. Georgian security
alleged the would-be attacker received weapons from Iranian citizens living in
the country via drop-offs and hideouts.
Expert Analysis
“The arrest of operatives in Tbilisi acting under the guidance of the Quds Force
demonstrates Iran has not abandoned its attempts to murder Israelis abroad. The
use of an al-Qaeda affiliate shouldn’t come as a surprise due to Iran’s
extensive history of training, funding, and providing other material support to
al-Qaeda and its partners.”
– Joe Truzman, Research Analyst at FDD’s Long War Journal
A History of Iranian Plots Against Israelis Abroad
Operatives acting under Iranian guidance have attempted to murder Israelis in
multiple countries. On October 4, 2021, Israel accused Iran of orchestrating a
plot to murder Israelis in the Cypriot capital of Nicosia. Local authorities
reportedly conducted surveillance on a 38-year-old Azeri national using a
Russian passport for several weeks before they arrested him. They found a pistol
and a silencer in his rental car. The following month, Quds Force operatives
conspired against Israelis visiting Ghana, Senegal, and Tanzania. Under the
guise of studying religion, five suspects arrested by local authorities
reportedly trained in Lebanon, where the Iranian proxy Hezbollah constitutes the
dominant political force. Among the targets whom the suspects scouted were
Israelis on a safari in Tanzania.
In June 2022, Turkish intelligence in cooperation with Israel’s Mossad thwarted
an Iranian plot to kidnap Israeli tourists, including former Israeli Consul
General in Istanbul Yossi Levi-Sfari and his partner. Local police and Turkish
intelligence arrested 10 suspects consisting of Iranian intelligence assets and
IRGC operatives who posed as students and tourists.
Iran’s Relationship with al-Qaeda
Despite sectarian differences, al-Qaeda and Iran have a history of cooperation
when mutual interests intersect. The IRGC and Lebanese Hezbollah have provided
al-Qaeda operatives with weapons, including explosives training. In August 2022,
a photograph surfaced of al-Qaeda leaders, including Saif al-Adel, a possible
successor to former emir Ayman al-Zawahiri, in the capital of Tehran.
Israeli Lawmaker Calls for ‘Targeted Assassinations’
against Palestinians
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 23 November, 2022
Itamar Ben-Gvir, an extremist Israeli lawmaker and who is set to become the
minister in charge of police under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, called for
the resumption of “targeted assassinations” against Palestinian factions. “We
must exact a price from terror,” he said at the scene of one of two explosions
that went off near bus stops in Jerusalem on Wednesday, killing one person and
injuring at least 18. Police said they suspected the attack to be carried out by
Palestinians. Ben-Gvir, who has called for the death penalty for Palestinian
attackers, said the attack meant Israel needed to take a tougher stance on
Palestinian violence. “We must return to be in control of Israel, to restore
deterrence against terror,” he said. Israel needs to “bring back targeted
assassinations,” and to put more restrictions on prisoners convicted of security
crimes, he added. He also called for stopping the Palestinian Authority’s
payments which he accused of “harboring terrorism.” He said that Israel “has to
form a government as soon as possible; terror doesn’t wait.” Ben-Gvir is one of
Netanyahu’s allies, and ultra-nationalist lawmaker who heads the Jewish Power
party. The extremist politician made a big surprise in the recent Israeli
elections, which moved him from the sideline of politics to the role of
"kingmaker", after his "religious Zionist" party came in third place. It was a
radical shift for Ben-Gvir, who was convicted in 2007 of racist incitement
against Arabs, and of supporting the "Kach" movement, which is listed as
terrorist by Israel and the United States. Ben-Gvir is known for his extremist
positions. He called for the death penalty for Palestinian prisoners, and also
stormed the sit-in of the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood in East Jerusalem and
threatened them with his gun. He led several raids on Al-Aqsa Mosque.
Explosion Near Damascus Kills Iranian Revolutionary Guards Colonel
Asharq A-Awsat/Wednesday, 23 November, 2022
An explosion near the Syrian capital, Damascus, has killed an official with
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, the force said on its website Wednesday, blaming
Israel for the killing. The force identified the officer killed as Col. Davoud
Jafari, who it said was working for the Guard. The statement warned that Israel
will answer for what it called the “crime.”Dozens of Iranian forces have been
killed in Syria’s war.
UN should launch probe into human rights violations in
Iran, HRW
Arab News/November 23, 2022
BEIRUT: The UN Human Rights Council will hold a special session on Thursday to
discuss human rights violations in Iran. Human Rights Watch said on Wednesday
that council members should vote to establish an independent fact-finding
mission in order to investigate the deadly crackdown on anti-regime protests.
Human rights organizations are looking into the deaths of 434 people in the past
nine weeks, including 60 children. Human Rights Watch reported dozens of
instances where security forces used excessive lethal force against peaceful
protesters in several cities. According to the Kurdistan Human Rights Network,
officials have also intensified crackdowns on protests in several Kurdish
cities, killing at least 39 people. Footage circulating online shows special
forces and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps units using weapons such as heavy
machine guns and assault rifles against protesters, HRW said. “Iranian
authorities seem determined to unleash brutal force to crush protests and have
ignored calls to investigate the mountains of evidence of serious rights
violations,” HRW senior Iran researcher Tara Sepehri Far said. Thousands of
people have been arrested since the protests began in September in the wake of
the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini. According to HRW, detainees are kept in
overcrowded conditions, and subjected to torture and sexual harassment. On Oct.
24, judiciary spokesperson Masoud Setayeshi told media that authorities have
begun prosecuting protesters. In the absence of international human rights
standards, courts routinely use coerced confessions, and defendants are denied
access to the lawyer of their choice. At least six people connected with the
protests have reportedly been sentenced to death on charges of “waging war
against God” or “corruption on earth,” according to the UN Human Rights Office
“The UN Human Rights Council should shine a spotlight on the deepening
repression, and create an independent mechanism to investigate Iranian
government abuses and hold those responsible accountable, ” Far said.
Eight Reasons Behind European 'Belated Recognition' of
Iran’s Threat
Manama- Ibrahim Hamidi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 23 November, 2022
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen chose the Manama Dialogue
platform to reveal an acknowledgement that the Europeans took a long time to
“understand a very simple fact that while we work to prevent Iran from
developing nuclear weapons, we must also focus on other forms of weapons
proliferation, from drones to ballistic missiles.”This “recognition”, which came
from the top European official, and on a Gulf platform, surprised those present
at the public opening session of the Manama Dialogue, including dozens of senior
military officials in the region and the world.
In fact, this statement was only an evidence to the position that Western
countries have reached in the recent period, as participants noted in this
edition of the Bahraini capital dialogue an escalating US and European rhetoric
against Tehran and its policies in the region and the world, in conjunction with
the successive Western sanctions on Iranian figures and entities.
But what are the reasons behind this sudden change in the European position?
According to analyses by Western officials in closed sessions, on the sidelines
of the Manama Dialogue, we can talk about the accumulation of a series of
reasons:
First, the nuclear negotiations. There is a belief that Western countries agreed
to present a “fair and good offer” to the Iranian delegation in Vienna last
March. But Tehran has not yet responded, nor has it retracted the steps it had
taken on the nuclear front. Rather, it stepped up nuclear enrichment of uranium,
and externally, moved its proxies in more than one arena in the region and the
world. It is estimated that the threshold for nuclear weapons has decreased to
“weeks” after it was “months.”
Second, the International Energy Agency. UN reports showed continued work on
uranium enrichment in three facilities. Tehran refused to cooperate with the UN
institution or reply to its requests, which led to a decision by the Agency’s
Board of Governors with the support of 35 countries. It appears that Tehran
responded by initiating 60 percent enrichment at the Fordow facility using IR-6
centrifuges.
Third, protests and cracks. The steadfastness and expansion of protests in Iran
after the murder of the young Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini, and the high degree of
violence committed by the Iranian security services, highlighted “the fragility
of the system.”
In remarks on the sidelines of the Manama Dialogue, Intelligence experts and
diplomats said that they believe that the collapse of the regime was unlikely,
but raised questions about the outcome of the protests, with regards to the
successor of Ali Khamenei, the nuclear program or the structure of the regime.
Fourth, documents and agents. Western officials have monitored Iran’s
manipulation of its proxies and militias in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and others. There
has been talk of a Western interception of weapons sent to the Houthis in the
Gulf and to Hezbollah in Syria, the bombing of Iraqi Kurdistan, and expansions
in countries such as Albania.
Fifth, threats. Western countries, including Britain and Canada, monitored
serious threats by Iranian agencies to opponents and journalists covering the
Iranian file and the protests. This was met with diplomatic summons by London
and Ottawa, and the adoption of security measures to protect sites and media and
political figures in Britain and Canada. Sixth, the Iranian drones in Ukraine.
Perhaps the most important reason is Iran’s involvement, alongside Russia, in
the Ukraine war. The Russian army’s use of Iranian “drones” to bomb areas in
Ukraine has been confirmed. A number of Western officials spoke, in closed
meetings, of evidence of the presence of Iranian military experts in Crimea, and
indications of the imminent arrival of Iranian ballistic missiles to Ukraine.
One of them asked: “How will the West feel when it wakes up to the news of the
fall of an Iranian missile in Kyiv, a European capital?” While another asked:
“What is the fate of betting on Russia’s support in Syria and others to curb
Iran’s role?”At this point, talks emerged about the Iranian-Russian thread, as
British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said that the policies of Moscow and
Tehran are “a threat to the region and the world.”
Seventh, the effect of energy. There is an additional reason for the “Western
spinning” towards the Gulf, which is the renewed belief in the importance of
gas, oil and sea lanes in that region of the world. In the face of Tehran’s
behavior and the growing importance of the Gulf role, the statements of European
and Western officials and their public visits came to recognize the new
equation. Eighth, neutrality. Participants also interpreted this new position as
a Western desire to push Arab countries out of neutrality in the Ukraine war.
Among the attendees, an Arab official whispered after Ursula von der Leyen’s
statement: “Suddenly, they want us to support their positions... What about our
issues?” Another official pointed to Western attempts to “get us out of
neutrality and support the Western position in Ukraine.”It is clear that there
is another Gulf - Arab position. Initially, caution was observed in statements
and stances towards Iran during the Manama Dialogue, and some regional
participants were happy about the late European revelations. There was no Gulf
coping with the Western rush and the European “urgency” for the partnership.
While cautious positions were noted, a “diplomatic attack” came from the
Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Nayef Al-Hajraf.
In the opening speech that included the campaign against Iran, Ursula von der
Leyen criticized the “slowness” of the Gulf Cooperation Council to sign a
collective joint agreement with the European Union, and warned of the
possibility of resorting to bilateral agreements with each Gulf country if
long-decade negotiations did not result in an agreement between the two blocs.
This criticism was met with a similar response from Al-Hajraf, who requested to
make an immediate speech. Negotiations took place and a quick bilateral meeting
was held to resolve the problem, and it was believed that the page had been
turned. But the next day, Al-Hajraf returned to the matter, and before giving
his speech on another subject, he insisted on responding to Ursula von der
Leyen’s criticism, saying: “We are ready when you are.” In the public sessions
of the Manama Dialogue and during its private bilateral meetings and talks,
there were additional signs of the features of the new equation, which was
expressed by one of the participants who said: “It is possible to talk about the
centrality of the Gulf and the growing Western and Chinese interest in the
region... Riyadh’s hosting of the Gulf Cooperation Council summit, in addition
to the Arab summit that will be attended by Chinese President Xi Jinping next
month, after a similar summit with US President Joe Biden, is further evidence
of this centrality.”
Casualties in Kyiv and power outages in Ukraine and
Moldova after new strikes
Associated Press/Wednesday, 23 November, 2022
A punishing new barrage of Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure on
Wednesday caused power outages across large parts of the country as well as
neighboring Moldova, adding to damage to Ukraine's power network and misery for
civilians as winter begins. Multiple regions reported attacks in quick
succession. In several regions, authorities reported strikes on critical
infrastructure. Officials in Kyiv said that three people were dead and nine
wounded in the capital after a Russian strike hit a two-story building. Russia
has been pounding the power grid and other facilities with missiles and
exploding drones for weeks. The new strikes piled further intense stress on an
energy system that is being damaged faster than it can be repaired.
Before the latest barrage, President Volodymyr Zelensky had said that
Russian strikes had already damaged around half of Ukraine's infrastructure.
Rolling power outages have become the horrid new normal for millions and the
latest barrage affected water supplies, too. Ukrainian officials believe Russian
President Vladimir Putin is hoping that the misery of unheated and unlit homes
in the cold and dark of winter will turn public opinion against a continuation
of the war but say it's having the opposite effect, strengthening Ukrainian
resolve. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said Wednesday that "one of the capital's
infrastructure facilities has been hit" and there were "several more explosions
in different districts" of the city. He said water supplies were knocked out in
all of Kyiv.
There were power outages in parts of Kyiv, while power was out in the wider Kyiv
region, in the northern city of Kharkiv, the western city of Lviv, the northern
Chernihiv region and in the southern Odesa region. In Moldova, Infrastructure
Minister Andrei Spinu said that "we have massive power outages across the
country," whose Soviet-era energy systems remain interconnected with Ukraine.
There was a similar outage in Moldova on Nov. 15. The country's pro-Western
president, Maia Sandu, said in a statement that "Russia left Moldova in the
dark." She said that the future of Moldova, a country of about 2.6 million
people, "must remain toward the free world."
Power also was out in most parts of the western Khmelnytskyi region, governor
Serhii Hamalii said on Telegram. He added that a nuclear power plant in the
region was disconnected from the Ukrainian electricity grid.
The latest onslaught came hours after Ukrainian authorities said an overnight
rocket attack destroyed a hospital maternity ward in southern Ukraine, killing a
2-day-old baby. Following the overnight strike in Vilniansk, close to the city
of Zaporizhzhia, the baby's mother and a doctor were pulled alive from the
rubble. The region's governor said the rockets were
Russian. The strike adds to the gruesome toll suffered by hospitals and other
medical facilities — and their patients and staff — in the Russian invasion that
will enter its tenth month this week.
They have been in the firing line from the outset, including a March 9 airstrike
that destroyed a maternity hospital in the now-occupied port city of Mariupol.
First lady Olena Zelenska wrote on Twitter that a 2-day-old boy died in
the strike and expressed her condolences. "Horrible pain. We will never forget
and never forgive," she said. Photos posted by the
governor showed thick smoke rising above mounds of rubble, being combed by
emergency workers against the backdrop of a dark night sky. The State Emergency
Service said the two-story building was destroyed.
Medical workers' efforts have been complicated by the succession of Russian
attacks in recent weeks on Ukraine's infrastructure.
The situation is even worse in the southern city of Kherson, from which Russia
retreated nearly two weeks ago after months of occupation — cutting power and
water lines.
Many doctors in the city are working in the dark, unable to use elevators to
transport patients to surgery and operating with headlamps, cell phones and
flashlights. In some hospitals, key equipment no longer works.
"Breathing machines don't work, X-ray machines don't work ... There is only one
portable ultrasound machine and we carry it constantly," said Volodymyr
Malishchuk, the head of surgery at a children's hospital in the city.
On Tuesday, after strikes on Kherson seriously wounded 13-year-old Artur
Voblikov, a team of health staff carefully maneuvered the sedated boy up six
flights of a narrow staircase to an operating room to amputate his left arm.
Malischchuk said that three children wounded by Russian strikes have come to the
hospital this week, half as many as had previously been admitted in all of the
nine months since the invasion began. Picking up a piece of shrapnel that was
found in a 14-year-old boy's stomach, he said children are arriving with severe
head injuries and ruptured internal organs. Artur's mother, Natalia Voblikova,
sat in the dark hospital with her daughter, waiting for his surgery to end. "You
can't even call (Russians) animals, because animals take care of their own,"
said Voblikova wiping tears from her eyes. "But the children ... Why kill
children?" The European Parliament on Wednesday
overwhelmingly backed a resolution labeling Russia a state sponsor of terrorism
for its invasion of and actions in Ukraine. The nonbinding but symbolically
significant resolution passed in a 494-58 vote with 48 abstentions. Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the vote. "Russia must be isolated at all
levels and be held accountable in order to end its longstanding policy of
terrorism in Ukraine and across the globe," he wrote on Twitter.
After Wednesday's strikes, senior Zelensky aide Andriy Yermak wrote on Telegram:
"The terrorists immediately confirm that they are terrorists — they launch
rockets. Naive losers."
Some Russian commanders knew of sexual violence or
encouraged it, says lawyer advising Kyiv
Joanna Plucinska, Anthony Deutsch and Stefaniia Bern/Reuters/
There is evidence that Russian commanders in several instances were aware of
sexual violence by military personnel in Ukraine “and in some cases, encouraging
it or even ordering it,” according to an international criminal lawyer assisting
Kyiv’s war crimes investigations.
British lawyer Wayne Jordash told Reuters that in some areas around the capital
of Kyiv in the north, where the probes are most advanced, some of the sexual
violence involved a level of organisation by Russian armed forces that “speaks
to planning on a more systematic level.” He didn’t identify specific individuals
under scrutiny. The previously unreported findings by investigators about the
alleged role of commanders and the systematic nature of attacks in some
locations are part of patterns of alleged sexual violence that are emerging as
Russia’s war in Ukraine enters its ninth month.
Jordash, who is part of a Western-backed team that provides legal expertise to
Ukraine, said it was too early to conclude how widespread the practice was
because investigations in recently-recaptured areas of the northeast and south
are at an earlier stage. However, the patterns suggest that sexual violence
“maybe even more frequent” in territories that were occupied for longer periods,
he added, without providing evidence. Reuters interviewed more than twenty
people who worked with alleged victims - including law enforcement, doctors and
lawyers - as well as an alleged rape victim and family members of another. They
shared accounts of alleged sexual violence by Russian armed forces that occurred
in various parts of Ukraine: many included allegations of family members being
forced to watch or multiple soldiers participating or acts being conducted at
gunpoint.
Reuters couldn’t independently corroborate the accounts. Some of the
circumstances - including family members witnessing rape - feature in alleged
attacks by Russians documented by a United Nations-mandated investigation body
in a report published last month, which said victims ranged in age from four to
over 80. In northern Ukraine’s Chernihiv region, a soldier in Russia’s 80th tank
regiment in March repeatedly sexually abused a girl and threatened to kill
family members, according to a Chernihiv district court ruling. The court this
month found 31-year old Ruslan Kuliyev and another Russian soldier that Kuliyev
was a superior of guilty of war crimes in absentia for assault on locals, the
ruling said. Kuliyev, who the court said was a senior lieutenant, and the other
soldier couldn’t be reached for comment. Rape can constitute a war crime under
the Geneva Conventions that establish international legal standards for conduct
of armed conflicts. Widespread or systematic sexual violence could amount to
crimes against humanity, which are generally seen as more serious, legal
specialists said. Moscow, which has said it is conducting a “special military
operation" in Ukraine, has denied committing war crimes or targeting civilians.
In reply to Reuters questions about alleged sexual violence by the Russian
military in Ukraine, including whether commanders were aware and whether it was
systematic, the Kremlin’s press service said it denies “such allegations.” It
referred detailed questions to the Russian defence ministry, which didn’t
respond. Ukraine’s Prosecutor General’s office said Moscow’s war on Ukraine “is
aimed at exterminating the Ukrainian people” and that sexual violence is among
Russian crimes “intended to spread a state of terror, cause suffering and fear
among the civilian population of Ukraine.”
“There are indications that sexual violence is being used as a weapon of war,”
Pramila Patten, the Special Representative of the U.N. Secretary-General on
Sexual Violence in Conflict, told Reuters citing accounts of circumstances such
as rape in front of family members, gang rape and forced nudtiy.
WHITE RAGS
Kyiv has said it is examining tens of thousands of reports as part of its
investigations into alleged war crimes by Russian military personnel; sexual
violence accounts for only a small part of those. Ukraine’s probe is at the
centre of multiple efforts to investigate potential war crimes related to the
conflict, including by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague.
Evidence that sexual violence was planned could indicate it was part of a
systematic attack or that some level of command was aware, said Kim Thuy
Seelinger, an advisor to the ICC on sexual violence in conflict and a research
associate professor at Washington University in St. Louis. A woman from the
village of Berestianka, near Kyiv, told Reuters that shortly after Russian
troops arrived in March a soldier ordered her to hang a white rag outside her
house. He returned that night with two other Russians, according to the woman,
who asked to be identified only by her first name Viktoriia. She said one of
them, who she took to be a commander because he appeared to be much older and
because that’s how the others referred to him, told her the two other soldiers
were drunk and wanted to have fun. According to Viktoriia, a slim-built 42-year
old, those two soldiers walked her to a neighbouring house, where one shot dead
a man when he tried to prevent them taking his wife. The two soldiers then took
both women to a nearby house, where Viktoriia said she was raped by one of them.
The other woman was also raped, according to that woman’s sister and Viktoriia.
Reuters was unable to reach the second woman, whose family said had left
Ukraine. When Reuters visited the village in July, splattered blood was visible
in the location where the sister and her mother said the man was shot. Viktoriia
said she cried uncontrollably after her experience and remains easily frightened
by loud noises. When asked about the women’s rape allegations, which have been
reported by other news media, the Ukraine prosecutor general’s office said there
was an investigation into sexual violence by Russian military personnel against
two women from Berestianka but declined further comment. Polish gynaecologist
Agnieszka Kurczuk said one of the Ukrainian refugees she treated - a woman from
the east who alleged she was raped while her nine-year old daughter was nearby -
said it happened after Russian soldiers told women in the village to hang out
white bedsheets or towels.
Reuters couldn’t establish whether there was a direct link between the alleged
attacks and marking of the homes.
WIDESPREAD PATTERN?
Allegations of rape and sexual violence surfaced soon after Moscow’s Feb. 24
invasion of Ukraine and have come from across the country, according to accounts
Reuters gathered and the U.N. investigative body. Polish gynaecologist Rafal
Kuzlik and his trauma psychologist wife Iwona Kuzlik told Reuters they treated
seven women this spring who fled Ukraine, mainly from the north and north east,
and who described being raped by Russian soldiers. Ukrainian lawyer Larysa
Denysenko said she is representing nine alleged rape victims and all but two
allege multiple Russian soldiers were involved and some clients also described
being beaten or raped in front of a family member. Ukraine’s Prosecutor
General’s office said it has opened dozens of criminal cases involving sexual
violence by members of the Russian armed forces against women, children and men.
Ukrainian authorities and other specialists say the numbers of victims is likely
to be far greater because parts of the country remain occupied and victims often
are reluctant to come forward, including due to fears of reprisals and distrust
of authorities. The U.N.’s human rights monitoring mission in Ukraine said in a
September report that most of the dozens of alleged instances sexual violence it
had documented were committed by members of Russian armed forces and two were by
members of Ukrainian armed forces or law enforcement.
Britain: Russia Has Nearly Exhausted Stock of Iran-made
Weapons
Asharq A-Awsat/Wednesday, 23 November, 2022
Russia has likely launched a number of Iranian manufactured un-crewed aerial
vehicles (UAVs) against Ukraine since September, Britain's Ministry of Defense
said on Wednesday. It's also likely that Russia has nearly exhausted its current
stock of Iran-made weapons and will seek resupply, the ministry said in its
daily intelligence update posted on Twitter. The Russian attacks have been a
combination of UAVs and traditional reusable armed systems, it added.
Russian missile strikes knock out power in Kyiv region
Pavel Polityuk, Max Hunder and Dan Peleschuk/Reuters/Wednesday, 23 November,
2022
Russia knocked out electricity in the whole of the Kyiv region on Wednesday in
missile strikes that pummelled energy facilities across Ukraine and caused
blackouts in neighbouring Moldova. At least one person was killed and 20 wounded
in the Kyiv region, where water supplies were also badly disrupted after
critical infrastructure was hit, local officials said. Reuters correspondents in
and around the capital said they heard several loud explosions and that air
defence missiles were flying overhead. "(Missiles) Hit one of the capital's
infrastructure facilities. Stay in shelters! The air alert continues," Klitschko
wrote on the Telegram messaging app. The regional administration later said:
"The Kyiv region is completely without electricity. There is also a partial lack
of heating and water supply."They gave no details of what infrastructure was
hit. But Russian forces have increasingly targeted Ukrainian energy facilities
in recent weeks as they faced setbacks on the battlefield following their Feb.
24 invasion. Ukraine's national power grid operator said on Tuesday the damage
dealt to power generating facilities was "colossal" but dismissed the need to
evacuate civilians even though temperatures have dropped with the onset of
winter. Wednesday's missile strikes also caused blackouts across all of the
Chernihiv region in northern Ukraine and emergency outages were imposed in Lviv
in Western Ukraine and most other regions. Half of Ukraine's neighbour, Moldova,
suffered a blackout, the deputy prime minister of the tiny former Soviet
republic said. Ukraine's nuclear energy firm Energoatom said units were shut
down at the Pivdennoukrainsk nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine because of
a loss of power after the air strikes but added: "Everything is fine with the
station."A local official said units were also not operating at the Khmelnytskyi
nuclear power plant in western Ukraine. Russian attacks have knocked out power
for long periods for up to 10 million consumers at a time. Ukraine's national
power grid operator said on Wednesday more blackouts would be necessary across
the country but did not many people were affected. Ukrainian officials said a
newborn baby had also been killed in a Russian missile attack that hit a
maternity hospital in the city of Vilniansk in southeastern Ukraine earlier on
Wednesday.
In front of Putin, Armenian leader laments lack of help
from Russian-led alliance
Mark Trevelyan/Reuters/Wednesday, 23 November, 2022
The leader of Armenia vented his frustration on Wednesday at the failure of a
Russian-led security alliance to come to his country's aid in the face of what
he called aggression by Azerbaijan. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called into
question the effectiveness of the six-nation alliance, the Collective Security
Treaty Organisation (CSTO), in pointed opening remarks to a summit as Russian
President Vladimir Putin looked on. Russia, the dominant player in the CSTO, has
long been the main power broker in the south Caucasus region, bordering Turkey
and Iran, where Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought two major wars since the
collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. But as Russia struggles in its
nine-month-old war in Ukraine, it risks losing influence in parts of the former
Soviet Union that it has long seen as its sphere of influence. Fighting flared
in September between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the two sides said more than
200 soldiers had been killed. "It is depressing that Armenia's membership in the
CSTO did not deter Azerbaijan from aggressive actions," Pashinyan said. "Right
up to today we have not managed to reach a decision on a CSTO response to
Azerbaijan’s aggression against Armenia. These facts do grave harm to the image
of the CSTO both inside our country and outside its borders, and I consider this
the main failure of Armenia’s chairmanship of the CSTO."Armenia sent a direct
request for assistance from the organisation in September, which was met only
with a promise to send observers. Pashinyan contrasted that with the alliance's
rapid decision in January to send troops to another member state, Kazakhstan, to
help President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev survive a wave of unrest. Armenia and
Azerbaijan blamed each other for the flare-up, the worst eruption of hostilities
since 2020, when more than 6,000 were killed in a 44-day war in which Azerbaijan
scored a series of major territorial victories. The two countries have been
wrangling for decades over Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave internationally
recognised as part of Azerbaijan but largely controlled by the majority ethnic
Armenian population, with support from Yerevan. Russia sent 1,960 peacekeeping
troops to the area under a 2020 ceasefire deal but has made little apparent
progress in getting the two sides to resolve issues including border demarcation
and the legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh and the ethnic Armenians who live
there. Azerbaijan enjoys backing from Turkey and is not a member of the CSTO,
which comprises Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan as well as Russia
and Armenia.
Ukraine war: How Germany ended reliance on Russian gas
Jenny Hill - BBC News, Wilhelmshaven/November 23, 2022
When Vladimir Putin switched off the gas taps to Europe, Germany more than most
feared a winter of blackouts. Ministers scrambled to secure alternative
supplies, painfully aware that a heavy dependence on Russian gas had left this
industrial nation woefully exposed. But fast forward a few months and, as lights
sparkle in the Christmas markets, there is a sense of tentative optimism in the
Glühwein spiced air. Germany's hastily assembled strategy to manage without
Russian gas appears - for now - to be working. "Energy security for this winter
is guaranteed," the Chancellor Olaf Scholz told MPs in the German parliament on
Wednesday morning. Not only are the country's gas stores full; the result, in
part, of a frantic - and expensive - buying operation on the world's markets.
But, up on Germany's windswept North Sea coast, engineers have just finished
building - in record time - the country's very first import terminal for
liquified natural gas (LNG). LNG is natural gas which is cooled to liquid form
to reduce its volume and make easier to transport. It's then converted back to
gas form upon reaching its destination. Germany is rightly notorious for its
ponderous bureaucracy; this kind of project would normally take years, but the
authorities slashed away at red tape to enable completion in under 200 days. The
most important part of the terminal - a 'floating storage and regasification
unit' (FSRU) - has yet to moor up. The FSRU, which is essentially a specialised
ship upon which the LNG is converted back to its gas state, will be leased at a
reported 200,000 euros (£172,732) a day. But, within weeks, tankers from
countries like the US, Norway or the Emirates could deliver their cargoes here
to the port of Wilhelmshaven. The terminal's operator, Uniper, which is now
almost entirely controlled by the German government, is coy about its suppliers
but insists that contracts are in place. And five other LNG terminals are
planned. Most should be completed next year.
German industry is depending on it.
"If we don't get any gas, we have to shut down the oven," says Ernst Buchow as
we stand in his brick factory a half hour drive from Wilhelmshaven. The bricks
he produces must be fired in a giant kiln at temperatures of up to 1,200C
(2,192F). He hopes, one day, to transition to green hydrogen but says that will
take time. For now, he's wholly reliant on a steady supply of gas. "It's not
just the politicians' fault. Industry wanted the Russian gas contracts."Just a
year ago those contracts provided Germany with 60% of its gas, much of it via
the Nordstream pipeline from Russia. The government was still anticipating -
albeit in the face of significant political and public opposition - the opening
of the Nordstream 2 pipeline which would have doubled the amount of Russian gas
coming into Europe via Germany. Today, according to the federal energy network
agency, Germany's managing without Russian gas. But, to avoid shortages over the
winter, its experts say LNG terminals must come online at the start of next year
and that gas consumption must be reduced by 20%. Just getting to this point may
be considered a huge national achievement. But it comes at a cost.
Germany's an economic heavyweight; what it wants, it often gets. Its new-found
appetite for liquified natural gas is intensifying global demand. And that may
place other, poorer countries, like Bangladesh and Pakistan, in a vulnerable
position. "You have a whole bunch of countries - emerging economies notably -
that are priced out of the market and can no longer source the LNG that they
need," says Professor Andreas Goldthau from the Willy Brandt School of Public
Policy. They "have less of a purchasing power than the Europeans have and,
notably, the Germans."That, he warns, leaves them prone to blackouts and may
also increase their reliance on "dirtier" fossil fuels like coal. And what of
Germany's own ambitions for a greener future? LNG is, after all, a fossil fuel.
Everyone involved in the Wilhelmshaven project are quick to insist that LNG is a
"transitional" fuel.
Uniper has promised to build infrastructure to handle green hydrogen alongside
the LNG terminal. That's fuelled ambitious plans in Wilhelmshaven's town hall.
The mayor, Carsten Feist, says the LNG terminal won't bring many badly needed
jobs to the town. But his plans for a green energy hub would.
"So much of the energy transformation that we need to achieve so that our planet
has an habitable climate in fifty or a hundred years' time, so much of what's
necessary here in Germany, will happen in and through Wilhelmshaven."Perhaps the
most striking cost is the literal one. Those six LNG terminals are costing the
government more than six billion euros. By their own admission, that's well over
double what ministers had initially budgeted and it may rise further next year.
This country learned too late the value of a secure energy supply. It's paying
for it now.
Chechens fighting for Ukraine see chance to 'free' their homeland
Joseph Campbell and Dan Peleschuk/Reuters/November 23/2022
Speaking amid the boom of artillery on Ukraine's frontlines, the masked soldier
said his ultimate goal was to liberate a land farther east - the Russian
republic of Chechnya. Maga, his nom-de-guerre, is part of a unit of Chechen
fighters helping Ukraine battle Russian troops in eastern Ukraine. Many of his
kinsmen also famously support the other side - powerful Chechen leader Ramzan
Kadyrov calls himself Russian President Vladimir Putin's "foot soldier" and sent
members of his personal army to Ukraine to fight for the Russians. Kadyrov has
also been a vocal critic of Russia's performance in the conflict so far and said
Moscow should consider using a low-yield nuclear weapon in Ukraine, setting
alarm bells ringing in the West. For Chechens under Ukrainian military command,
the hope is that a victory in the war could spark political crisis in Russia
and, with it, the downfall of Kadyrov, who some governments including the United
States have accused of human rights abuses. Kadyrov has denied the charges.
"We're not fighting just for the sake of fighting," said Maga, who declined to
give his real name for security reasons. "We want to achieve freedom and
independence for our peoples," he added, referring to Chechens and other ethnic
minorities in the Caucasus region. His unit is one of several battalions of
ethnic Chechens that have joined forces with Kyiv, some of them since 2014 when
Moscow-backed separatists seized territory in eastern Ukraine. Most of the
fighters are from Europe, where they or their relatives sought refuge during the
two Chechen wars that followed the Soviet Union's collapse. Younger members are
children of those who fought or were killed in the conflicts, Maga said, while
older ones have direct combat experience. Unlike Kadyrov's troops, who have
posted videos about their exploits in Ukraine on social media, they keep a low
profile and say the brutal reputation in both Chechnya and Ukraine of the "Kadyrovites",
as they are known, has sullied the image of Chechens. Kadyrov says he brought an
end to the bloodshed which plagued Chechnya in the two decades following the
1991 fall of the Soviet Union, restoring loyal relations with the Kremlin,
destroying militants and rebuilding the republic’s economy.
He did not immediately respond to questions for this article.
KADYROV'S POSITION STRONG
Some experts say Kadyrov's power has been cemented through a combination of
violence, Kremlin patronage and propaganda. His father, Akhmad, was installed by
Putin to restore order after two wars ravaged the mountainous region. Ramzan
took over following his father's assassination in 2004 to finish stamping out an
Islamist insurgency and has closely tied modern Chechen culture to his personal
leadership, said Caucasus researcher Cerwyn Moore. "It would take quite a lot to
change that sort of dynamic," said Moore, a senior lecturer of international
relations at the University of Birmingham. That has not extinguished hope among
Kadyrov's opponents, including Chechens fighting Russian forces in Ukraine, that
the authoritarian "power vertical" which Putin has built could crumble if Moscow
lost in Ukraine. Ukrainian authorities have sought to exploit those hopes. In
September, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy appealed to non-ethnic Russians,
specifically Caucasians, to refuse to join Putin's army and "defend your freedom
now in the streets and squares". In a sleekly produced video address, he invoked
the legacy of Caucasian folk hero Imam Shamil, a celebrated 19th Century
resistance leader who fought against imperial Russia. Weeks later, Ukraine's
parliament voted to recognise what it called the Russian occupation of the
short-lived Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, which won de-facto independence from
Moscow after the first Chechen War in the mid-1990s. It is led by a
government-in-exile whose head, Akhmed Zakayev, told Ukrainian media last month
that he was often in Kyiv to meet Ukrainian officials and considered Chechen
units fighting for Ukraine as a vanguard. "The armed forces of the Chechen
Republic of Ichkeria are being renewed here today," he told the Ukrainian
service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty on Oct. 24.According to Moore,
Zakayev's movement is "fragmented" and currently poses little threat to Kadyrov.
But he added that the current war provided an opportunity for a younger
generation, including those fighting in Ukraine, to explore their culture
separately from the Chechen strongman.
"The fact that they are carving out even a sort of semi-virtual sense of
identity under the umbrella of Ukrainian resistance to Russia is doing something
quite powerful," he said. That effort was aided by what another fighter in
Maga's unit, who identified himself as "Tor", described as a Caucasian community
in Russia that was technologically connected and politically curious. For now,
he said, many in the Caucasus region subscribe to the official position,
broadcast widely on state media, that Russia is a bulwark against Western
aggression. But he added that a new reckoning would come.
"It's unavoidable," said Tor, "like tomorrow's sunrise."
Turkey vows intent 'stronger than ever' to secure Syrian
border
Agence France Presse/November 23/2022
Turkey said Wednesday it was more determined than ever to secure its Syrian
border from attacks by Kurdish forces, threatening a ground operation "at the
most convenient time."Ankara launched an air strikes campaign across Iraq and
Syria on Sunday as part of Operation Claw-Sword following a bombing in Istanbul
on November 13 that killed six people. "Our operations
with planes, cannons and drones are only the beginning. Our determination to
secure all our southern border... with a safe zone is stronger today than ever
before," President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told lawmakers in parliament.
"While we press ahead with air raids uninterrupted, we will crack down on
terrorists also by land at the most convenient time for us," he told lawmakers
from his AKP party. Turkey blamed the Istanbul attack on the Kurdistan Workers'
Party (PKK), which is blacklisted as a terror group by the European Union and
the United States. The PKK, which has waged an
insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984, denied any role in the bombing
-- the deadliest in five years after a spate of attacks in Turkey between 2015
and 2017. Turkey has intensified air raids and
artillery fire on the PKK and the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG)
targets in northern Iraq and Syria. Ankara considers the YPG a terror group
linked to the PKK. But the YPG -- the dominant force within the US-led Syrian
Democratic Forces (SDF) is seen as crucial in the fight against the Islamic
State (IS) extremist group.
'Can't keep their word'
The YPG denied a role in this month's attack. A Kurdish military official told
AFP that a Turkish drone strike hit a Kurdish position inside a Russian base in
northeastern Syria on Wednesday killing one Kurdish fighter and wounding three.
The casualties were all fighters of the Kurdish-led SDF, the SDF officer said.
Erdogan accused Western states backing Kurdish forces in Syria of failing to
deliver on their promise of no attacks on Turkish soil, pointing to the Istanbul
bombing. "If they can't keep their word," he said, "then we have the right to
take care of ourselves.""Turkey has the power to catch and punish terrorists
inside and outside our borders who are involved in attacks against our country
and nation," he said. Erdogan has repeatedly called for a 30-kilometer (19-mile)
"safe zone" to protect Turkey against cross-border attacks from Syrian
territory. On Wednesday, he vowed Turkey would complete the zone "step by step"
starting from the towns of Tal Rifaat, Manbij and Ayn al-Arab, also known as
Kobane in Kurdish, which are all located in northern Syria. Kobane, a
Kurdish-majority town near the Turkish border, was captured by IS in late 2014
before Syrian Kurdish forces drove them out early the following year.
Gas plant Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said the military had hit nearly
500 Kurdish targets across Iraq and Syria as part of its offensive. "So far 471
targets have been struck and 254 terrorists were neutralized in the operation,"
Akar said. A British-based monitoring group and Kurdish authorities have
reported Turkish drone strikes on many locations in Hassakeh province including
a domestic gas plant and an oil pumping station.
Turkish artillery fire also hit near the Jerkin prison in Qamishli, which holds
IS group detainees, according to both sources. Ankara
insisted Wednesday that its campaign targeted only "terrorists.""I repeat that
the only target of the Turkish armed forces are the terrorists and the
structures belonging to these terrorists," Erdogan said. "We have no problem
with any ethnic or religious group, with our Kurdish or Arab brothers."Turkish
border towns have come under rocket fire from Syria in recent days. At least
three people, including a child, were killed in a Turkish border town on Monday.
Egyptian Copts set to begin Christmas fast
Mohammad Shamaa/November 23, 2022
CAIRO: Egyptian Copts will begin their 43-day Christmas fast on Nov. 25, with
its conclusion on Jan. 7, the night of festive celebration. Egyptian churches
have different dates for the start of the fast. The Coptic Orthodox Church
begins on Nov. 25, while the Catholic Church fasts for 15 days from Dec. 9.
The Coptic period is in line with the 40-day fasting of Prophet Moses. The three
additional days were added after Abraam Ebn-Zaraa the Syrian, who is considered
a saint by the Coptic Orthodox Church, fasted them. Coptic researcher Robert
Al-Fares told Arab News: “During the Christmas fast, the church allows eating
fish, unlike the great fast that ends with Easter, during which the church
completely forbids it. “The church allows eating fish during some fasts because
of their extended periods and the need for some for animal protein.”He added
that during fasts the Copts “eat vegetarian food, completely abstain from eating
meat, and are allowed to eat fish on all days of the week except for Wednesday
and Friday.”Archpriest Michael Gerges, of the Diocese of Helwan, said: “The
prayers of the Divine Liturgy during fasting are for the president of the
republic, his holiness the pope, the bishop of the city, ministers and soldiers,
and those who are responsible, and for the peace of the world, and for the
fruits of the Earth and the grass, the seed and the grass, and for the
rivers.”Coptic researcher Suleiman Shafiq told Arab News: “The first person to
officially introduce the Christmas fast in the East was Pope Christodoulos, the
66th patriarch of the Coptic Orthodox Church. “Fasting is a belief for the
people of monotheistic religions, and the number of fasting days of all Egyptian
Muslims and Christians reaches 406. “Egyptians relate fasting to spirituality
and religion, and this is clearly linked to the Egyptian identity from the times
of the pharaohs.”
Turkish strike hits Russian base in northeast Syria
Agence France Presse/November 23/2022
A Turkish drone strike hit a Kurdish position inside a Russian base in
northeastern Syria on Wednesday killing one Kurdish fighter and wounding three,
a Kurdish military official told AFP.The casualties were all fighters of the
Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, a key ally of the U.S.-led coalition
battling the Islamic State group in the region, the SDF officer said.
HomeKurds — stateless people under attack from all sides
AFP/November 23, 2022
PARIS: The Kurds are a non-Arab ethnic group of between 25 and 35 million people
whose dreams of an independent homeland were brutally quashed throughout the
20th century. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has blamed Kurdish
militants for a deadly bombing in Istanbul earlier this month, an accusation
they have strongly rejected. In retaliation, Turkiye has hit nearly 500 Kurdish
targets across Iraq and Syria as part of a campaign of air strikes in recent
days, Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said Wednesday. Meanwhile, in Iran,
Kurdish-dominated western regions have been at the forefront of a popular
uprising over the death of young Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini after her arrest by
the morality police two months ago. Iranian security forces have responded with
a crackdown on Kurdish areas and cross-border strikes on Kurdish opposition
groups based in northern Iraq. The Kurds inhabit largely mountainous regions
across southeastern Turkiye through northern Syria and Iraq to central Iran. The
collapse of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I opened the way for the
creation of a Kurdish state in the post-war Treaty of Sevres. However Turkish
nationalists, led by army general Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, opposed the harsh terms
of the treaty and launched a new war. It resulted in a new accord, the 1923
Treaty of Lausanne, which established the boundaries of modern Turkiye and
effectively drew a line under international support for an independent
Kurdistan. In 1984, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party took up arms for the creation
of an independent state in predominantly Kurdish southeastern Turkiye but it
later scaled back its demands to greater Kurdish autonomy. The conflict between
the outlawed PKK and the Turkish state has claimed tens of thousands of lives.
The PKK’s founder Abdullah Ocalan has been behind bars since 1999. In Syria, the
Kurds were oppressed by successive governments for decades. After the Syrian
civil war broke out in 2011, they took advantage of the chaos to set up an
autonomous Kurdish region, Rojava, in northern Syria, on Turkiye’s border.
Turkiye has since carried out three cross-border offensives targeting Kurdish
forces in Syria — in 2016, 2018 and 2019. In Iran, where a Kurdish uprising was
harshly repressed in 1979, the authorities have accused Kurdish groups of
instigating “riots,” their term for the mass protests sparked by Amini’s death
in September. Amini was from the predominantly Kurdish town of Saqqez in
northwestern Iran, near the Iraqi border. Several Kurdish-majority towns,
including Mahabad, Javanroud and Piranshahr, have seen large protests over her
death and the killings of demonstrators. Dozens of people have died in the
crackdown. Tehran has also launched repeated cross-border missile and drone
strikes against exiled Kurdish opposition groups based in Iraq. In Iraq, Kurds
were persecuted under the Sunni Arab-dominated regime of Saddam Hussein and rose
up after Iraq’s defeat in the 1991 Gulf War. They established de facto autonomy
in the north, which was formalized by Iraq’s 2005 constitution. In 2017 Iraq’s
Kurds overwhelmingly voted for independence in a non-binding referendum.Baghdad
was furious and, in retaliation, seized a swathe of Kurdish-held territory,
including oilfields that were the mainstay of the autonomous region’s finances.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
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on November
23-24/2022
Iran Aids Russia’s Imperialist War Against Ukraine
John Hardie/The Algemeiner/November 23/2022
Tehran has agreed to help Moscow produce hundreds or even thousands of Iranian
drones in Russia, according to new intelligence reports cited by The Washington
Post and CNN. This agreement could boost Russia’s stocks of Iranian loitering
munitions, commonly called “kamikaze drones,” which are helping Russian forces
wreak havoc on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, and exacerbating Kyiv’s
shortage of air defense systems and interceptors.
The Russian-Iranian agreement, reportedly reached in early November, is just the
latest form of Iranian support for the Kremlin’s imperialist war against
Ukraine. Since August, the Islamic Republic has supplied Russia with multiple
types of drones, along with Iranian advisors to train Russian operators, helping
Moscow compensate for its limited drone production capacity and dwindling supply
of cruise missiles.
These drones include the Shahed-136 and its smaller cousin, the Shahed-131,
which the Russians rebranded as the Geran-2 and Geran-1, respectively. The
Russian military has reportedly fired at least 400 of these drones, and is
seeking to acquire many more, along with Iranian short-range ballistic missiles.
In return, Moscow has reportedly given Tehran captured US and British weapons to
study.
Russia uses its Iranian-supplied loitering munitions primarily for long-range
strikes against fixed targets. In addition to attacking military targets, Russia
frequently employs these munitions in strike packages against Ukrainian critical
infrastructure, particularly the electrical grid, but also water systems, as
part of a campaign launched in early October.
Russia’s strike campaign has “disabled” almost “half” of Ukraine’s electricity
infrastructure, Ukraine’s prime minister said last week, following barrages that
included at least 15 Iranian-supplied loitering munitions. In an address last
Thursday evening, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that “more than 10
million Ukrainians are without electricity.” And equipment shortages will likely
render repairs increasingly difficult.
As temperatures drop across Ukraine, Moscow evidently hopes to erode its
neighbor’s will to fight. Russia is unlikely to succeed in that respect. But
these strikes will make life even harder for the Ukrainian people, while
deterring the return of refugees and investment. This will exacerbate Ukraine’s
reliance on economic and humanitarian aid from Western countries, where Vladimir
Putin likely hopes that “Ukraine fatigue” will lead Western governments to
curtail support for Kyiv. Iranian short-range ballistic missiles, which Ukraine
will likely struggle to shoot down, could give a further boost to Russia’s
strike campaign, especially if supplied large numbers.
In addition to harming the Ukrainian population, Iranian-supplied loitering
munitions are taxing Ukraine’s air defenses.
While relatively easy to shoot down, the Iranian-supplied munitions are cheap
and can be produced in large numbers, allowing the Russians to fire enough of
them to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. Russia’s strike campaign has
reportedly led Ukraine to pull air defense systems back from the battlefield, in
order to defend cities and infrastructure. This, in turn, has reportedly granted
greater latitude to Russian fighter planes flying combat air patrols,
undermining the Ukrainian Air Force’s effectiveness.
At the same time, the Iranian loitering munitions are forcing Ukraine to expend
comparatively expensive surface-to-air missiles, whose stocks have dwindled over
nearly nine months of war. Interceptors for Kyiv’s Buk-M1 medium-range air
defense systems, which Ukraine doesn’t produce domestically, are particularly
scarce. Since the war’s early days, Ukraine’s Buk-M1s, along with its S-300
long-range systems, have hamstrung the Russian Air Force, forcing Russian
aircraft to fly low when they venture near the front lines. This leaves them
vulnerable to man-portable air defense systems, which the West has supplied in
large numbers.
But if Ukraine runs out of these interceptors, the Russian Air Force could be
freed up to provide Russian troops with more effective close air support, which
has been lacking so far in the war. The United States and its allies have
provided Ukraine with additional air defense systems and are looking to send
more. Those that have arrived proven effective. But the West doesn’t have enough
spare medium-range surface-to-air missile systems to replace Ukraine’s Buk-M1s.
To help fill that gap, Washington and its allies should try to provide Kyiv with
additional MIM-23 HAWK medium-range surface-to-air missile systems, building on
the six already provided or promised by Madrid.
Spain and fellow NATO allies Greece, Romania, and Turkey, along with soon-to-be
NATO member Sweden, collectively have dozens more HAWK systems, according to the
Military Balance 2021. American allies in the Middle East have even more, and
South Korea also operates the system.
Washington, for its part, plans to provide Ukraine with HAWK missiles, following
refurbishment necessitated by the decades they spent sitting in storage. If the
HAWK launchers in US storage cannot be repaired, perhaps they could be scavenged
for spare parts. The Pentagon should also make every effort to expedite delivery
of the six NASAMS air defense systems promised to Kyiv, which recently received
its first two. Ukraine’s stocks of missiles for those two systems will also need
to be replenished in a timely manner.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces need more efficient means of defending against
Iranian loitering munitions. As my colleagues Mark Montgomery and Bradley Bowman
have argued, Washington should fulfill Kyiv’s request for Counter-Rocket,
Artillery, and Mortar systems, while seeking to expedite delivery of the VAMPIRE
counter-drone system.
Finally, the Biden administration should grant Kyiv’s longstanding pleas for
ATACMS missiles for Ukraine’s Western-provided rocket artillery systems. These
missiles could enable the Ukrainian military to strike a panoply of high-value
targets currently beyond its reach, including bases from which Russia launches
Iranian drones. The administration has refrained from sending ATACMS due to fear
of Russian escalation, but Washington could mitigate that risk by requiring Kyiv
to use the missiles only against Russian military targets on Ukrainian
territory, including Crimea and the Donbas region.
Ukraine is winning this war. But it has many months of tough fighting ahead,
made even harder by Iran’s support for Russia. To emerge victorious, Kyiv will
need continued military aid from the West, including air defenses. The United
States and its allies should answer the call.
*John Hardie is deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for
Defense of Democracies, a nonpartisan research institute based in Washington,
DC.
Liberty Is Worth the Fight
J.B. Shurk/ Gatestone Institute/November 23/2022
Freedom's future always depends upon the courage of a lonely few.
Aside from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's efforts to create an
official "Disinformation Governance Board" to "combat" free speech antithetical
to the government's point of view, reports show that DHS employees have
regularly met with Facebook and Twitter to suppress and censor certain facts and
opinions in online discussion of numerous issues dominating public debate —
including such broad topics as the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, Covid-19,
and "racial justice."
To censor dissenting views on experimental, yet coerced, medical treatments,
two-tiered economic shutdowns (during which "Big Box" stores are inexplicably
"allowed" to operate while economically vulnerable neighborhood shops are not),
is mass censorship in the name of public health, shielding from scrutiny
monstrous tyranny draped in the false cloak of the "greater" or "common good."
Many politicians cavalierly embrace totalitarianism once again. Citizens, once
aware of the attendant dangers to peace when large corporations and national
governments work hand in glove to push "politically correct" ideas upon society,
are apparently so far removed from the twentieth century's vivid lessons in
fascist, communist, and Nazi propaganda that they fail to see the harm in
bureaucrats and officeholders dictating to the public what it may believe.
Many Westerners have forgotten that freedom of speech and personal liberty — far
from menacing "microaggressions" deserving of sanction — are the surest safety
valves for mediating animosities inherent within any society before outright
violence is unleashed in their stead.
Governments already acclimated to universal public surveillance and warrantless
online tracking see central bank digital currencies, human tracking implants,
and the imposition of social credit scores all on the horizon and believe the
time for total control over citizens is near, so long as they are the ones doing
the controlling.
Their concern is not our personal liberty but their power.
For human freedom to flourish, only the people are capable of keeping government
power in check.
It is therefore imperative that Westerners not lose sight of the most important
battle already raging — one pitting individual freedom against total state
control.
Many Westerners have forgotten that freedom of speech and personal liberty — far
from menacing "microaggressions" deserving of sanction — are the surest safety
valves for mediating animosities inherent within any society before outright
violence is unleashed in their stead. (Image source: iStock)
"There comes a time," Martin Luther King Jr. advised, "when one must take a
position that is neither safe, nor politic, nor popular, but he must take it
because conscience tells him it is right." Moral imperative, in other words,
outweighs personal security, political correctness, and the psychological
comfort of identifying with the crowd. During troubling times of human violence
and suffering, it is always the lonely few — either blessed with innate courage
or made resolute through private, grinding struggle — who dare to take a stand
against encroaching evils tacitly accepted by the many. Such is the power of
individual free will when man chooses principle as his guide.
Today is a time for the voices of the few to coalesce. What is at stake is
nothing less than individual control over one's life, liberty, property,
privacy, and pursuit of happiness. Freedom of speech hangs in the balance, as do
freedom of religion, freedom of the press, and the right of the people peaceably
to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances. That
many of these natural rights were recorded together in America's First Amendment
is not accidental. They are intimately interwoven. To weaken any one, weakens
them all.
To freeze the bank accounts of Freedom Convoy protesters demanding freedom from
unwanted experimental "vaccines," as was done in Canada, is to threaten speech,
assembly, bodily autonomy, religious objection, property rights, and public
resistance to government-caused harm.
To forbid a football coach from publicly praying is to force him to sacrifice
both his religious freedom and freedom of expression; if the very things that
most define us are relegated to the home, then religious identity and freedom of
speech do not have far to roam.
Aside from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's efforts to create an
official "Disinformation Governance Board" to "combat" free speech antithetical
to the government's point of view, reports show that DHS employees have
regularly met with Facebook and Twitter to suppress and censor certain facts and
opinions in online discussion of numerous issues dominating public debate —
including such broad topics as the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, Covid-19,
and "racial justice."
To hand Western governments the power to decide what may or may not be published
on social media deprives the public square of both unfettered free speech
(within the bounds of Brandenburg v. Ohio) and a truly free press. To empower
government actors with the authority to designate some thoughts as "mis-,"
"mal-," or "dis-" information — in other words, to permit politicians and
bureaucrats to arbitrate what is true or false, helpful or harmful, protected
opinion or malicious deception — is to abrogate entirely the protections of
America's First Amendment. To use private sector cutouts as the government's
implicit censors is not only a nefarious and cynical workaround -- it is also
illegal to act as a government agent to enable it to circumvent constitutional
prohibitions, in this instance limiting who may participate in the modern-day
equivalent of the traditional town square.
To censor dissenting views on experimental, yet coerced, medical treatments,
two-tiered economic shutdowns (during which "Big Box" stores are inexplicably
"allowed" to operate while economically vulnerable neighborhood shops are not),
is mass censorship in the name of public health, shielding from scrutiny
monstrous tyranny draped in the false cloak of the "greater" or "common good."
When governments censor dissenting opinions from public debate, they serve no
greater interests than their own. When governments claim to act for the people's
"own good" while banning contrary points of view, they all too often augment
their own power at the public's expense. When governments camouflage their
orders behind claims of "good intentions," then the most atrocious evils can be
blissfully undertaken.
If you allow yourself to be blinded by any government's "good intentions," your
eyes may one day be flooded with the sights of unspeakable harms. Hugo Chávez's
socialist government made many such promises "for the good" of the people of
Venezuela, while his government's endless public betrayals have left that
nation's citizenry suffering immeasurably still today.
This is a pivotal moment in human history, when centuries of steady progress
toward human emancipation and individual liberty will either find new, urgent
momentum or suffer regrettable retreat. Either freedom means something, or it
does not. Either personal agency resides in the hands of every individual, or it
disappears behind a view of people as nothing more than parts of collective
groups. Either self-government demands each citizen have a voice, or the many
must obey the edicts of an ever-expansive government run by the few. Either
citizens are uniquely empowered to control the direction of their governments,
or legal citizenship and nationality mean nothing at all. These are the simple
yet serious stakes we face today. They are clear, unforgiving, and unavoidable.
The reason we are here now at this intersection in the history of liberty is not
complex: it is the outcome of human nature. For most people in the West today,
war and its painful consequences are unknown or have been distorted by time.
Although violence and bloodshed continue uninterrupted in many places around the
world, most Westerners have long been spared the horrors of war directly outside
their doors. The difficulty for humans to appreciate what they cannot see has
made them careless in preventing what they do not intimately know.
Many politicians cavalierly embrace totalitarianism once again. Citizens, once
aware of the attendant dangers to peace when large corporations and national
governments work hand in glove to push "politically correct" ideas upon society,
are apparently so far removed from the twentieth century's vivid lessons in
fascist, communist, and Nazi propaganda that they fail to see the harm in
bureaucrats and officeholders dictating to the public what it may believe.
Many Westerners have forgotten that freedom of speech and personal liberty — far
from menacing "microaggressions" deserving of sanction — are the surest safety
valves for mediating animosities inherent within any society before outright
violence is unleashed in their stead. For many people, decades of relative peace
have transformed hard-fought Western freedoms into disposable inessentials.
Governments and international corporations think little of the risks to social
cohesion — and probably do not even care — when they purposefully manipulate
populations with mass media propaganda meant to reinforce the elite agendas of
the World Economic Forum covering everything from energy use and food production
to medical mandates and health passports. The same allure of ultimate power and
control that fueled both world wars remains all too enticing.
Governments already acclimated to universal public surveillance and warrantless
online tracking see central bank digital currencies, human tracking implants,
and the imposition of social credit scores all on the horizon and believe the
time for total control over citizens is near, so long as they are the ones doing
the controlling.
As always, technology's liberating benefits are accompanied by its powers to
threaten populations and to suppress information that its directors may abhor.
Radio and television connected the world as never before, but mass communication
also rapidly fueled the rise of dictators and the spread of public
indoctrination to new heights. Nuclear energy has provided both abundant power
and the potential for apocalyptic destruction. Personal computers, smartphones
and the internet have given ordinary individuals megaphones through which to
articulate new ideas, yet that same cyberspace has opened up a brand new
battlespace for government surveillance, propaganda, and mass manipulation.
Rather than ensuring citizens' economic security and fostering freer markets,
some governments appear to view technology as providing not only more efficient
tools for redistributing wealth, limiting personal income, and levying taxes but
also the means for creating a technocratic system of total surveillance in which
bureaucratic control over what consumers buy and sell and the implementation of
social credit scores can both reward "politically correct" behaviors and punish
"wrong" points of view.
Technological advancement provides the means for both greater human freedom and
absolute human abasement. When governments are allowed to make that choice for
us, they will often choose the latter. Their concern is not our personal liberty
but their power. For human freedom to flourish, only the people are capable of
keeping government power in check.
It is therefore imperative that Westerners not lose sight of the most important
battle already raging — one pitting individual freedom against total state
control. Every other issue should be scrutinized through this lens. We are,
indeed, at an intersection in the history of human liberty. Even if only a small
minority comprehend what is now at risk, those few would do well to fight for
preserving our individual freedoms against those governments and corporations
working diligently to dilute them. Either the light of liberty is once again
rekindled, or it will be extinguished until a later day.
**JB Shurk writes about politics and society.
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not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Iran’s Drones Are Western-Made
Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/November, 23/2022
The Iranian drones that Iran had given to Russia for use in Ukraine were
recently inspected, and the results showed that half of their components were
US-made, while around a third of the rest were made by companies in Japan and
Europe.
The ‘Wall Street Journal’ reported the news, citing a nonprofit that had
analyzed the drones and proved that the Iranian drones were actually composed of
parts made by the US, Europeans, and US allies. It is difficult to characterize
this report. Can we just say that it is shocking or scandalous, or that it is
merely the result of Western inertia in dealing with the Iranian regime, against
which international sanctions, and before them US sanctions, have been imposed?
This report undoubtedly feeds into popular conspiracy theories about the
Democrats’ ties to the Iranian regime. I do not encourage or support such
theories. However, the matter is simple, though it may seem more complicated for
several reasons, some of which we know.
One thing we know for sure is the Democrat-American push to get the nuclear deal
with Iran over the line, which began with Barack Obama, was led to inertia, or
rather leniency, in dealing with Iran. It has made it easier for the leftist
media in the US to ignore what is happening in Iran and go easy on it.
Some leftist news outlets have, for example, been ignoring the protests in Iran.
They did not give them proper coverage even two weeks ago, though the protests
began nearly 11 weeks ago and despite the killings and arbitrary arrests by the
regime.
Some media outlets have not aired anything about the protests in Iran. These
include television broadcasters and newspapers that have ignored them in both
their news reporting and opinion columns. All of that also points to an
important fact.
It is that systematic American leniency vis a vis the Iranian regime has been
the norm at the administration level since Obama came to office. Meanwhile, the
media has not been responsible or inquisitive in its reporting on this leniency.
We can still remember how some Democrats and Democrat-aligned media outlets
reacted to the Donald Trump administration’s decision to assassinate Quds Force
Commander Qassem Soleimani, a blow the Iranian regime has yet to recover from.
All of this tells us that US leniency should come as no surprise. Indeed,
several reports have already suggested that the US is not focused on gathering
intelligence about Iran, which has forced the Israelis to increase their focus
on gathering intelligence about the Iranian nuclear program.
The American-Democrat tendency to ignore Iran’s actions and deal with them
leniently did not take the threat posed by Iranian drones seriously because they
were used by the Houthis against Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. They
did not pay attention when they were used in Iraq and Syria, nor when Hezbollah
got its hands on them.
All of that demonstrates that the US does not take the security of this region
seriously. However, when these drones targeted Ukraine, the US and the West
moved to look into them, how they were made, and how they were assembled.
And so, we are faced with American-Democrat negligence and leniency that tells
us to put more effort into uncovering how the Iranians have been arming
themselves and raising awareness about the threats they pose to the region’s
security. It tells us that we should not issue warnings in whispers but with
proof, loudly, repeatedly, and proficiently.
Thoughts Around the Terror Attack in Istanbul
Omer Onhon/Asharq Al-Awsat/November, 23/2022
The terror attack which took place in a pedestrian street in Istanbul was a
fearful reminder of past such attacks all over Europe and many parts of the
world a few years ago.
Turkish police detained a woman who is said to have placed the bag which
contained TNT explosives. Her accomplices were also captured. They all carry
Syrian nationality.
After the attack in Istanbul on Sunday, the Turkish Minister of Interior said
that the YPG/PKK was responsible for the attack. YPG has denied responsibility.
The woman who has been detained by the police is not a Kurd but an Arab.
According to the police, the woman was trained as a “special intelligence
person” in Kobani/Ayn al-Arab. She and her accomplices entered Türkiye illegally
a few months ago through Afrin in Syria. They settled in an Istanbul
neighborhood (Esenler) where many Syrians live. She worked at a Syrian owned
business.
The big question is who perpetrated the attack and for what reason.
Back in 2015-2016 Türkiye, like other countries, was the target of terror
attacks. What was different in the case of Türkiye was that perpetrators were
two different terror organizations; ISIS and PKK/YPG, whereas for the others it
was ISIS.
Immediately after the attack, the Turkish Minister of Interior said “we got the
message and we will respond in the most powerful way”. What this message is, who
sent it, is there a particular addressee is unclear for the public at large, but
it seems that the Minister knows or he thinks he knows.
The US Embassy in Ankara and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken sent Twitter
messages and the White House Press Secretary issued a statement condemning the
attack and expressing solidarity with Türkiye.
The Turkish Minister of Interior said to the press that he rejected all messages
of condolence and solidarity coming from the US. He went on to say that the
terrorist came from an area where terror organization was supported by finances
provided by the US Congress.
A day later, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Joe Biden met
(very briefly) on the sidelines of the G-20 Summit in Indonesia. This issue must
surely have been discussed as it was said that Biden wished to express his
condolences in person.
Türkiye and the US, among other issues, are at odds in Syria over the YPG.
Türkiye regards the YPG as an extension of PKK which is also listed as a terror
organization by the US and the EU members. The difference is, for Americans and
others, YPG is not PKK and it continues to be US’s local partner and fighting
force against ISIS.
Even though President Trump at the time declared ISIS was defeated and no longer
existed, that is not quite the case. The terror organization has lost
territorial control, many of its members are killed or captured but it is not
dead. In fact it is trying to make a comeback and it is quite active in a number
of areas all over Syria.
ISIS continues to spread fear but on the other hand, as the control of Kurds in
the eastern parts of Euphrates constitute an irritant for local Arabs, some
locals prefer ISIS to what they call YPG and Kurdish control.
Many ISIS militants are in prisons. Their families are in camps guarded by YPG.
The largest one is in Al Hol in Al Hasaka/Syria. More than 70 percent are
children and youth. Many fear that besides terrible living conditions, it is a
breeding ground for the second generation of militants.
Türkiye has suffered from ISIS’s terrorism and has fought and driven off the
militants from its neighborhood. So it is not that Türkiye is indifferent to
ISIS but it is not happy that a terror organization ((YPG/PKK) is pampered, fed
and bred by its allies to fight ISIS.
The same day that the attack took place in Istanbul, the Turkish intelligence
agency hosted a meeting between the CIA and its Russian counterpart, at the
level of directors. The coincidence may have excited some, but most tend to
agree that there is hardly a connection.
The meeting between the directors of the two intelligence agencies centered on
the war in Ukraine. Among others, the main issue which was discussed was the
frightening possibility of Russians resorting to tactical nuclear weapons in
Ukraine.
Iran’s name also came up in debates around the Istanbul bombing. Iran has been
on Assad’s side since day one. Relations between Türkiye and Iran are always
sensitive and need to be treated with care and caution. It is a relationship
based on a mixture of cooperation and competition. There is always a thin line
in-between.
Türkiye has not made an official statement on the ongoing revolt of the youth
and women in Iran. On the other hand, relations between Iran and Azerbaijan are
tense. Iran has regarded some recent statements of President İlham Aliyev as
interference in its internal affairs. Ambassadors were summoned and harsh words
were exchanged. As to what this has to do with Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Türkiye
are kin and very close allies. Iran feels it is facing an alliance which is
supported by Israel.
Türkiye continues to pre-occupy North of Syria. Along the 911 kilometers of
common border, there are three zones controlled by the Syrian opposition. These
zones have been established as a result of Türkiye’s military operations. Idlib
is under the control of Hayat Tahrir Sham. In rest of the areas along the
border, there are YPG, Assad regime forces, Russia,Iran/Shiite militia and
Americans.
As of last May, the Turkish President has signaled military operations in north
Syria to clear the remaining parts from YPG. This has not been realized. It is
said that the US and Russia are against such an operation and Türkiye had to
reevaluate its original plans. Instead, Türkiye is targeting members of YPG and
has either eliminated or captured a significant number.
Some say that the bomb which went off in Istanbul gave Türkiye a good reason to
go back to its plans for a military operation into Syria to drive off YPG from
areas it controls.
Another aspect of the attack is that it will probably be used as a fresh example
of the risks which emanate from the presence of so many Syrians, Afghans and
others which have entered into Türkiye in recent years. This will put additional
pressure on President Erdogan and his government who are already criticized for
mishandling these issues.
Even a Small Nuclear War Would Mean Mass Famine
Faye Flam/Bloomberg/November, 23/2022
This century’s worst-case climate scenario isn’t global warming of 4 or even 5
degrees Celsius. It’s a nuclear winter that would trigger global cooling up to
12 or 13 degrees C.
That would happen within weeks of the start of a nuclear war, as smoke from
burning cities blotted out the sun. The result would be a massive famine as the
ocean’s food chain collapsed and global crops failed.
In most scenarios, hunger would spread around much of the globe and kill
hundreds of millions of people, said Alan Robock, a climatologist at Rutgers
University and co-author of two new studies on agriculture collapse and ocean
destruction. How bad it gets depends on the size of the nuclear exchange, but
even a “smaller” nuclear war — say, between India and Pakistan — would cause
enough global cooling to starve hundreds of millions. In a war that involved
Russia and the US, which have more powerful weapons and larger stockpiles, the
death toll would likely exceed half the world’s population.
That means any country willing to launch a first strike is willing to be a mass
murderer, says Robock, and anyone willing to launch a retaliatory strike is
agreeing to be a suicide bomber.
He is among a number of experts who think an aggressive posture in response to
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats isn’t a deterrent but only
puts the world in more danger. Daniel Ellsberg, the famous whistleblower who
stole hundreds of pages of nuclear secrets along with the Pentagon Papers,
argues the same thing in his 2017 book The Doomsday Machine.
The experts I spoke with say the model of deterrence and “mutually assured
destruction” is based on an outdated picture, and doesn’t take enough of
consideration the risk of a false alarm triggering a first strike followed by
escalation, or the ensuing climate catastrophe that would kill billions. Just as
improved climate modeling has sharpened our knowledge of global warming, it’s
also allowed researchers to better understand the catastrophic costs of nuclear
winter.
Talking about annihilation on this scale can make people feel helpless, but it
shouldn’t. Policy changes could drastically reduce the risk of nuclear
apocalypse.
One set of measures should target global warming. That’s because climate change
caused by emissions could increase the risk of nuclear war by increasing
political instability. “Extreme heat, extensive droughts, terrible disasters,
and rising seas are creating wave after wave of challenge to societies around
the world … thus affecting the social, economic, and political domains of
nations — and thereby influencing relations among nations,” wrote Christine
Parthemore, head of the Council on Strategic Risks, in a speech for last year’s
United Nations climate summit, COP26.
Another set of reforms should make current nuclear policy less threatening. A
way to start would be for more countries, including the US, to adopt a “no first
use” policy — a pledge never to use nuclear weapons except in retaliation for a
nuclear strike.
Last month, the US failed to adopt a such policy in the latest version of the
Nuclear Posture Review, a report issued by each new president since the Clinton
administration. This seems not just dangerous but immoral. Putin appeared to be
threatening first use of nuclear weapons during the Ukraine invasion, a threat
the world correctly found monstrous. So why would the US reserve the right to
start a nuclear war?
I asked Frank von Hippel of Princeton University’s department of science and
global security, and he told me that although President Joe Biden has expressed
a preference for a no-first-use policy, he’s getting pushback from the Pentagon
and from some of our allies, “who think we shouldn’t take any options off the
table.”
The problem is that the Pentagon and some of our allied leaders might not be
thinking enough about the science of post-nuclear climate change. It’s based on
well-accepted physics and climate modeling, and still, said Von Hippel, “the
Pentagon has been dismissing this as the hobby horse of a bunch of scientists.”
Even in the absence of a no-first-use policy, the US should take its land-based
intercontinental ballistic missiles off what’s called hair-trigger alert. Right
now, if there’s a warning of a Russian nuclear attack, the president has about
10 minutes to decide whether to strike back and thereby end the world as we know
it, Von Hippel said.
It’s a fallacy to equate an aggressive stance with the willingness to use
nuclear weapons, said Pavel Podvig, an independent researcher in Geneva who was
born in Russia and has studied nuclear security issues at the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, Stanford University and Princeton. The principle of
deterrence, he said, rests on showing you have the capacity to kill more people
than your opponent. But if the West tries to deter Russia this way, it needs to
demonstrate the consequences of a global calamity would be worse for Russia, and
that’s not likely to be the case. It goes back to Robock’s comparison to suicide
bombing.
“I don’t think there’s any reason to believe that it’s mutually assured
destruction that prevents Russia’s using nuclear weapons,” he said. “I believe
that it’s the fact that any use would be almost universally considered
completely unacceptable.”
He said he doesn’t think Putin will employ so-called tactical weapons in Ukraine
because that notion was conceived to attack large concentrations of troops, “and
this is not that kind of war.” But he worries that even just talking about it is
normalizing the use of nuclear weapons. “The message should be that if you use
nuclear weapons, you’re in criminal territory.” The world should still take an
aggressive stance, he said, but in a different way — aggressive in universally
condemning the use of nuclear weapons.
Americans are starting to realize how much we should demand climate stability,
and decades of activist pressure is finally starting to move the needle on
climate change. We should also be demanding a nuclear posture that does
everything possible to prevent a nuclear threat to our atmosphere. And we should
demand that our lives not be considered collateral damage in a war that can’t be
won.