English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For November 22/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Jesus said to them, ‘Very truly, I tell you, before Abraham was, I am
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 08/56-59/:”Your ancestor Abraham rejoiced that he would see my day; he saw it and was glad.’Then the Jews said to him, ‘You are not yet fifty years old, and have you seen Abraham?’Jesus said to them, ‘Very truly, I tell you, before Abraham was, I am.’So they picked up stones to throw at him, but Jesus hid himself and went out of the temple.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on November 21-22/2021
By Al Mighty God’s Will Lebanon Will Reclaim Its Confiscated Independence/Elias Bejjani/November 22/2019
Intense battle as Lebanese lawyers choose new members of Bar Association/
Najia Houssari/Arab News/November 21/2021
US congressional delegation meets with Lebanese leaders over crisis/The delegation held talks with President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister Najib Mikati.
US congressional delegation in Bkerki
Over 240,000 Lebanon Expats Register to Vote in Polls
Aoun Leading Talks to End Crisis, Shiite Duo Has Condition to Return to Cabinet
Hariri Says Saddening Lebanon 'Can't Even Hold a Cabinet Session'
Lebanese Army Stops Boat Carrying 90 People Off Coast
On Hezbollah’s Lebanese Identity/Elias Harfoush/Asharq Al-Awsat/November 21/2021
2021 Lebanon Is Not 1989 Lebanon/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/November 21/2021
Maintaining support for the LAF is crucial for Lebanon’s security/Hanin Ghaddar/Al Arabiya/November 21/2021
Lutter pour une Indépendance durable, à jamais. Pour toujours, une fois pour toutes./Jean-Marie Kassab/Novembre 21/2021

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 21-22/2021
One dead, four injured in terrorist attack in Jerusalem's Old City
'Hamas Member' Kills Israeli, Wounds 3 in Jerusalem Shooting
Eliyahu Kay from South Africa was killed in Jerusalem terror attack/Terrorist shoots Jews near Western Wall. Terrorist neutralized.
New protests in Iran over water shortage
Iran claims to have foiled airline cyber attack
Iranians boo Khamenei at protest and disavow Hamas in Gaza/“What they’re calling for is people-led regime change" in Iran.
Iran claims Israel afraid of conflict with its 'axis of resistance'
Sudan's Military Agrees to Reinstate Ousted PM
Palestinians Show Solidarity with Hamas after Britain's Terror Designation
Libya's Dbeibah Registers Bid for Presidency
Protests Erupt against Haftar, Saif al-Islam's Run for President in Libya
Further Collapses in Houthi Ranks on 2nd Day of Joint Forces' Operation towards Taiz, Ibb
Blinken Encourages Tunisia Reform in Talks with President

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 21-22/2021
Iran and the Incoming Regional Wars/Charles Elias Chartouni/November 21/2021
The Clarity of the China-Russia-Iran Trilateral and the Ambiguity of US Security Policies/Raghida Dergham/The National/November 21/2021
Israel’s Syria policy could be coming to new crossroads/Seth J. Frentzman/Jerusalem Post/November 21/2021
Voting for polarization and disunity in Libya/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/November 21/2021
Iranian regime on its knees and desperate for nuclear deal/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/November 21/2021

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on November 21-22/2021
By Al Mighty God’s Will Lebanon Will Reclaim Its Confiscated Independence//لبنان القداسة، بإذن إذن الله سوف يتحرر ويسترد سيادته واستقلاله
Elias Bejjani/November 22/2019
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/104307/elias-bejjani-by-al-mighty-gods-will-the-holy-lebanon-will-reclaim-its-confiscated-independence-%d9%84%d8%a8%d9%86%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%82%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%a9%d8%8c-%d8%a8%d8%a5%d8%b0/
Psalm 92:12: “The righteous will flourish like a palm tree, they will grow like a cedar of Lebanon”.
Today, the Lebanese back home in beloved Lebanon, as well as those living in Diaspora are all remembering with sadness, anger and frustration their country’s confiscated Independence Day. In reality, Lebanon is currently and since 2005 is totally occupied by Iran’s terrorist armed proxy, the notorious Hezbollah.Although our beloved Lebanon is practically not independent and fully occupied by Hezbollah, but every sovereign, faithful and patriotic Lebanese is hopeful and fully confident that this era of terrorism, evilness, oppression and hardship is ultimately going to end. By God’s will Lebanon’s freedom spring is on the horizon.
Today Free and Patriotic Lebanese call on all the free and democratic countries to help in Liberating the land of the Holy Cedars.
Lebanon, the land of the Holy Cedars, and the 7000 years deeply rooted glory, holiness and history at the present time is sadly an occupied, impoverished, and oppressed country. The ferocious occupier, Hezbollah, is an evil force that portrays and simplifies all that is stone ages concepts.
This terrorist armed militia totally controls and by force confiscates Lebanon’s decision making process on all levels, and in all domains, including the peace and war one.
Meanwhile the majority of the Lebanese officials, as well as the politicians, are mere mercenaries appointed by Hezbollah, and like puppets carry its wishes and orders.
The USA and other democratic countries can help Lebanon, and the Lebanese people in reclaiming back their confiscated independence and stolen country through strong, loud and official practical stances, and not only by rhetorically routing on going statements.
Lebanon can only be helped by the immediate implementation of the three UN resolutions that addresses its crisis: the armistice agreement, 1559, 1701 and 1680
What every country must be aware off is that the Lebanese people, who are taken hostages are unable on their own to liberate their country without a real and clear practical support from the UN and all the democratic countries.
The Lebanese people want a prosperous, democratic, independent, fully sovereign, peaceful Lebanon, reliant (including for security) on effective, transparent government institutions subject to public accountability.
After liberation, and with the right government, officials and politicians in place, and with a solid renewed international support, Lebanon re emergence from dust and ruins should not be impossible to achieve.
Yes, that’s what the majority of Lebanese want and yarn for. But between now and then, there is a blocking force that is hindering and opposing moving Lebanon in that direction.
This evil force, the Hezbollah terrorist occupier is feared by many, and countering it has no local strategies, in official policies. Hezbollah is obstructing prosperity, reform, sovereignty, and protecting all kinds of corruption and corrupters
From our Diaspora, we hail and command the courageous and patriotic Lebanese citizens who bravely call Hezbollah by its actual name, an Iranian terrorist occupation army, no more no less.
May Almighty God bless, safeguard Lebanon and grant its oppressed people the power and will to free their country and reclaim it back from Hezbollah, the Iranian terrorist Occupier.

Intense battle as Lebanese lawyers choose new members of Bar Association
Najia Houssari/Arab News/November 21/2021
Former Lebanese President Amin Gemayel: ‘We hope association will be an example for all syndicates’
Parties in power supported independent candidates for fear of revealing their lack of popularity
BEIRUT: Lawyers in Lebanon conducted an election on Sunday to choose nine members of the Bar Association, and its new head. The winning members of the association were Imad Martinos, Nader Kaspar, Elias Bazrelli, Abdo Lahoud, Iskandar Najjar, Fadi Al-Masry, Marwan Gabr, Wajih Massad and Maya Al-Zaghrini. Former President Amin Gemayel said on Sunday: “We hope that the elections will come out with results that embody Lebanon’s ambition, and that this Bar Association will be an example for all syndicates." Gemayel, a lawyer like dozens of politicians, made the remarks as he exercised his electoral right. Last year’s elections were canceled due to the coronavirus disease pandemic. The 2019 contest led to the election of a head from insurgent groups and the removal of the heads of the ruling parties who had run the Bar Association for decades. About 7,600 lawyers voted, and 36 candidates stood, including nine for the position of the head of the association. The election process continued throughout the day and witnessed attempts by the ruling parties to hide under the mantle of independent candidates. This led to confusion for many voters and an additional effort by the uprising candidates to obtain the majority of votes.
The votes of lawyers loyal to the opposition were distributed among the Lebanese Opposition Front and the Our Bar list. Between the two lists, there were three joint candidates, most notably Najjar. The parties, meanwhile, supported independent candidates having not named any themselves. Lawyers affiliated with revolutionary groups kicked the former MP, lawyer Nicola Fattoush, out from the Our Bar tent in the courtyard of the Palace of Justice, after they criticized him in relation to a quarrying business owned by him and his brother in the Bekaa region. The competition for the position of association chief centered between Najjar and Kaspar. Kaspar has been a member of the Beirut Bar Association for more than 3 sessions, and was considered the most likely candidate, after the difference in votes between him and Najjar in the results of the elections exceeded 300 votes in his favor. Kaspar had competed against previous incumbent Melhem Khalaf in the elections in November 2019. At that time, the parties of the system supported him to prevent Khalaf’s election, but the latter, backed by the October 17 uprising, defeated those parties. Election observers said “the veteran parties in the electoral process preferred not to announce their support for any candidate in the first round, and then to tell the winning head of the Bar Association that he won because of their votes and that they supported him.”Independents at several universities in Lebanon in 2019 contested student elections, breaking the grip of the traditional parties, which, observers added, might explain the hesitancy of traditional parties to back candidates overtly. Observers said that the political parties “have become afraid of the younger generation and shied away from announcing the names of their candidates. This is what prompted them to resort to naming candidates under the name ‘independent.’”

US congressional delegation meets with Lebanese leaders over crisis/The delegation held talks with President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister Najib Mikati.
The Arab Weekly/November 21/2021
BEIRUT— A group of U.S. congressmen held meetings Saturday with Lebanon’s top leaders during a fact-finding mission to the Middle East nation roiled by an unprecedented economic crisis. The delegation is to report to President Joe Biden and the Congress and propose ways to help the Lebanese. The country’s new government, in place since September, has struggled to kick off reforms and negotiations with the International Monetary Fund. The US team includes Rep. Darrell Issa, a California Republican, and also Republican Rep. Darin LaHood of Illinois, as well as Edward Gabriel, head of the Washington-based American Task Force for Lebanon. The three, who arrived Friday and are to spend three days in Lebanon, first met with President Michel Aoun. Lebanon’s crisis is rooted in decades of corruption and mismanagement. The international community has said it will only help the small nation once it implements wide reforms and tackles widespread corruption. Gabriel told the local Al-Jadeed TV that the congressmen are in town “to see first hand” what is going on in Lebanon and that he hoped they would “come up with some new ideas” for ways the United States could help the Lebanese.
The delegation later met with Prime Minister Najib Mikati who thanked the US for standing by Lebanon and for its continuous support to the Lebanese Armed Forces, his office said. Lebanon’s economic meltdown began in late 2019 and has been made worse by political bickering between rival groups who have failed to start reforms despite the fact that the crisis has thrown three quarters of the country’s 6 million people, including a million Syrian refugees, into poverty.

US congressional delegation in Bkerki
LCCC//November 21/2021
The US congressional delegation that is visiting Lebanon and composed of   Rep. Darrell Issa, a California Republican, and also Republican Rep. Darin LaHood of Illinois, as well as Edward Gabriel, head of the Washington-based American Task Force for Lebanon, met today in Bekerki the Maronite Patriarch Bchara Akl Raei and discussed with him the on ongoing Lebanese crisis, especially the social and economical ones and stressed the USA supporting role. Al Raei explained to the delegation members his proposed plane for neutralizing Lebanon and keeping it away from the regional wars and strives.

Over 240,000 Lebanon Expats Register to Vote in Polls
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 21 November, 2021 - 17:30
Nearly 245,000 Lebanese living abroad have signed up to vote in next year's parliamentary polls, Lebanon's foreign ministry said Sunday, after it closed the window for registration. The vote scheduled for March 2022 is seen by many as a chance to challenge the ruling elite's stranglehold on a country mired in its worse-ever financial crisis. Lebanon's diaspora -- estimated to number at least three times the country's 6-million population -- will take part in the vote for the 128-seat parliament, making them a powerful electoral force. The foreign ministry said the final expat voter count reached 244,442 -- more than double the almost 93,000 who registered for the last parliamentary polls in 2018, Lebanon's first expat vote. While the first was poorly publicized, this time around opposition activists at home and abroad organized social media campaigns to explain the registration process. In some parts of Europe, volunteers set up registration centers to help compatriots sign up. Europe accounted for the largest number of registered expat voters, with nearly 75,000, followed by Asia with 61,000 voters, and North America, where 60,000 signed up, the foreign ministry said in a statement. In Latin America, home to one of Lebanon's largest and oldest diaspora communities, only 6,350 people registered for the vote.The March polls mark the first major electoral test since the onset in 2019 of a financial crises widely blamed on nepotism and corruption among Lebanon's ruling class. It comes as Lebanese, nearly 80 percent of whom live below the poverty line, battle to survive with scant incomes and endless power cuts and price hikes. "The wave of change has started," said Ayah Bdeir, a Lebanese activist who organized a diaspora vote campaign. "Next we vote for change, then we take back our country," she said Sunday in a post on Twitter.

Aoun Leading Talks to End Crisis, Shiite Duo Has Condition to Return to Cabinet
Naharnet/November 21/2021
President Michel Aoun is holding contacts with local and regional leaders to secure the resumption of Cabinet session and resolve the crisis with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries, Baabda Palace sources said. “Aoun is communicating with Hizbullah to soften its stance and prevent the Shiite ministers’ boycott of the Cabinet session next week or the week that follows it, and he is also seeking to convince Information Minister George Kordahi to attend the Cabinet session and submit his resignation during the meeting,” the sources told the PSP’s al-Anbaa news portal in remarks published Sunday. MP George Atallah of the Strong Lebanon bloc meanwhile told al-Anbaa that “there is an attempt by PM Najib Miqati with President Aoun, after the phone call that Miqati held with the Shiite duo, regarding the activation of government’s work and resolving the diplomatic crisis.”Aoun and Miqati “put Kordahi in this picture and he promised them to think of the matter, which is a part of a bigger and more comprehensive solution,” Atallah added. The lawmaker however noted that “the solution to the crisis is still distant, because what is being offered to the Shiite duo does not meet its demands.”“What Miqati proposed did not convince the Shiite duo because the obstacle in its opinion is in the judiciary,” Atallah added, noting that “there are two proposals that are being discussed.”MP Mohammed Khawaja of the Development and Liberation bloc meanwhile told al-Anbaa that “there is nothing new as to the issue of resolving the governmental and diplomatic crises,” describing the remarks and reports in this regard as “the talk of newspapers.”Shiite duo sources had overnight told al-Jadeed TV that Hizbullah and Amal will not return to Cabinet sessions without “taking a decision that would grant parliament the power to try presidents and ministers in the Beirut port blast case.” “This stance is firm and will not change,” the sources added.

Hariri Says Saddening Lebanon 'Can't Even Hold a Cabinet Session'
Naharnet/November 21/2021
Al-Mustaqbal Movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri on Sunday lamented that Lebanon is nowadays “standing on the brink of hell” after it once was “the paradise of the Levant and the Arabs’ forum for civilization, dialogue, culture and democracy.” “But the wars of others on its soil and the conflict of sects that is open to exchanging hatred and to seeking foreign support have plunged it into hell and handed its fate, independence and democratic system to savage minds that are experts in producing failed states,” Hariri said in a series of tweets marking Lebanon’s Independence Day. He added: “It is very, very saddening that our country’s independence has fallen prey to successive waves of political, security and sectarian madness and that its state is even unable to hold a Cabinet session.”“And it is very, very saddening that the Lebanese citizen, after 78 years of independence, is feeling the need for a free, sovereign and independent state that is not the hostage of a party or a sect nor a launchpad for the guards of Arab civil wars,” Hariri went on to say.

Lebanese Army Stops Boat Carrying 90 People Off Coast
Agence France Presse/November 21/2021
The Lebanese Army has stopped a boatload of 91 people including Syrian and Palestinian refugees from departing Lebanon illegally. Women and children were among the group intercepted by a navy patrol off the coast of Qalamoun in northern Lebanon, the army said. It said the boat almost sank in bad weather and that all on board were rescued and taken to shore. The statement did not specify their intended destination. The Republic of Cyprus, a European Union member just 160 kilometers away, is a common destination for would-be migrants trying to flee Lebanon, which is mired in economic and political crisis.
On Friday the Lebanese internal security forces said they had thwarted an attempt by 82 people to illegally cross by sea from the Lebanon into Europe. The Internal Security Forces said they raided a "tourist resort" in the Qalamoun area on Thursday after being tipped off. They found "82 people, including men, women, and children, who were planning to head to Europe via sea in an illegal manner for a fee of $5,000 per person," without specify their nationality. The number of people attempting to make deadly sea crossings out of Lebanon has surged since the country's financial crisis began in 2019. Most of the would-be migrants are already refugees who fled the war in neighboring Syria, but an increasing number of Lebanese nationals are also attempting the perilous journey. Around 80 percent of Lebanon's population is estimated to be living under the poverty line, as defined by international organizations, and the Lebanese pound has lost 90 percent of its value against the dollar on the black market. Lebanon says it hosts more than 1.5 million Syrians, nearly a million of whom are registered as refugees with the U.N. Official estimates put the number of Palestinian refugees in the country at 180,000 but the actual number could be as high as 500,000.

On Hezbollah’s Lebanese Identity
Elias Harfoush/Asharq Al-Awsat/November 21/2021
When the issue of the need to confront the extensive role that Hezbollah plays both at home and in the region is raised, a clearly harmful matter impacting internal stability and Lebanon having normal relations with its neighbors and the rest of the world, one hears: this is a Lebanese party whose members are Lebanese. It has representatives in the government and parliament; what can we do about it?
This answer is not only given by Hezbollah’s allies; many of its rivals have adopted it as well, despite knowing the nature of the party and truth about its identity, priorities and interests. They nonetheless cajoled its leadership for personal gains and electoral interests at various stages. Subsequently, over the years, they felt the viciousness of its policies and were faced with the negative role it plays in paralyzing the country and toppling governments, through self-made rules they imposed on everyone, among which is the “blocking third,” which it exploited to ensure the dominance of its interests over the interests of the state, opposing the majority of both ministers and deputies. The most recent manifestation of this policy in Hezbollah’s actions today is against the lead investigator into the Beirut port blast, and how it is preventing Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s government from convening before “removing” Judge Tarek Bitar; that is, before it carries out the threat made by a Hezbollah security official during his “historic” visit to the Palace of Justice in Beirut.
Speaking of Hezbollah’s identity as a Lebanese party, the way parties are usually identified as: British, French, Indian, or even Iranian parties, needs some reflection and a lot of bravery for its assessment to see if this description matches the reality of the policies Hezbollah adopts in Lebanon, which is supposedly “its country”. We start with a legal issue regarding Hezbollah’s right to engage in political activity in Lebanon. We know that establishing any party, or even an association, in Lebanon requires the Ministry of Interior’s authorization. Does Hezbollah have one? Better yet, has it even thought of obtaining or seen a reason to justify seeking one given that it sees itself as above the law? It grants deeds of innocence and certificates of “the most honorable of people,” to those who enjoy its favor while granting accusations of treason to those who anger it by speaking out loud against its policies, with the ensuing threat to their interests, and in known cases to their lives as well.
The second matter regards Hezbollah’s ideological commitments and source of funding. Here, we should admit that the party is honest about both. Its commitment to Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Jurists) and the fact that it has imported the Iranian system of governance does not scare the party; in fact, Hezbollah is proud of this commitment. As for the question of funding, the party’s secretary-general has declared, on several occasions, “his party’s money, its fighters’ gear, their food and drink, and the funds it needs for its projects” come from Iran. Can we imagine that, in any other country in the world, a party explicitly announces its affiliation to a foreign country so transparently and is left free to engage in politics?
The other matter, which is not less critical, regards the contradictions between Hezbollah’s domestic and foreign interests and the Lebanese state’s interests. Usually, all parties work to further their country and citizens’ interests, refraining from taking any actions that threaten the country’s stability and security. This is a legal matter that governs any party’s activities. When any party breaks this law, it becomes vulnerable to being questioned and banned from taking part in political life.
In Hezbollah’s case, the incidents of it taking actions that undermined Lebanon’s security and the country and its people’s interests, the most recent of which is the ongoing crisis with the Gulf states, are too many to count. We recall the July 2006 war with Israel, which Hezbollah instigated by kidnapping two Israeli soldiers. Israel retaliated with a sweeping attack that caused many human losses and left immense destruction in its wake, as well as severely damaging the country’s economy and infrastructure. At the end of it all, Hezbollah’s secretary-general declared that he would not have launched the war if he had known the destructive outcome it would have.
Despite this recognition, the party was not held accountable in any way after the damages that the war had inflicted on Lebanon. All of that came under the pretext that it is a “resistance” party, though the fact is that there was no longer any justification for the maintenance of its arsenal after Israel’s withdrawal in 2000, especially that the Shebaa Farms’ status is contested between Lebanon and Syria, not Israel. Damascus must recognize that it is Lebanese territory, as the United Nations has told the Lebanese authorities on several occasions.
The fact that Hezbollah’s members carry Lebanese ID cards is not a sufficient reason for allowing it to engage in politics freely in this country. We know that many parties around the world are banned despite their members being nationals. The most prominent example is the Nazi Party, which is banned in Germany although there are those who support Nazi ideology and fascism in that country and others. The same applies to many other countries, where they forbid partisan activity that undermines the country’s interests or when it is clear that those running these parties are linked to foreign countries, even allies.
In Iran itself, Hezbollah’s exclusive sponsor, the authorities have banned political activity that opposes the Velayat-e Faqih system of governance or calls for the reinstatement of the Shah’s regime. Those who oppose the current Iranian system are either dead, in prison or in exile.
However, we are talking about Lebanon, and I am not so naive as to think that opening the discussion on Hezbollah and its loyalties is possible. The party’s dominance of the county’s politics has become so strong that it is impossible to call for debate or opposition. The crises Lebanon is facing today are among the direct outcomes of that domination.

2021 Lebanon Is Not 1989 Lebanon
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/November 21/2021
In their search for a way out that ameliorates residents’ current conditions, many Lebanese have leaned towards comparing their bitter reality with what they endured in the 1980s. Few of them are “optimistic” about the prospect of the disastrous state of affairs ending in the way it had at the time. However, given the massive differences between the two junctures, the tendency to rule out this comparison prevails. True, the 1980s witnessed an economic collapse that hit the national currency particularly hard. It also saw the state contract and its authority diminish, and the army continued to splinter, a process that had begun in the 1970s. What had been established during the “Two Years War” (1975-1976) was crowned early on in the following decade, with the thunderous 1982 Israeli invasion that preceded the eruption of the wars of the mountain, the southern suburbs, Beirut and Tripoli, which were followed by the war between the Shiites and the Palestinians, the “War of the Camps,” and the intra-Christian and intra-Shiite wars...However, it is also true that the damage that the country's educational, financial, health and service-providing institutions incurred at the time by - while they were not minor - cannot be compared with the damages threatening their total closure today. Is there a need to bring up what happened at the Beirut port or provide an overview of the situation banks, universities, hospitals and other institutions find themselves in?
Moreover, it seemed that prospects were on the horizon in the 1980s: regardless of one’s position on [Rafik] Hariri and his reconstruction and development policies, the fact remains that he drowned the market with funds that he invested and borrowed, creating, at least in the capital, an immense number of projects and job opportunities. No similar prospect seems to be on the cards today, nor does a regional and international consensus on “saving Lebanon” like that which emerged around Hariri. Our Arab neighbors and the West, with minor exceptions, do not seem concerned in light of Hezbollah’s hegemonic position. Furthermore, “Hariri’s remedy” was accompanied by the return of new Lebanese capitalists who wanted to turn into politicians and had made their fortunes abroad during the war. Added to them was the influx of youths who had studied abroad and had been waiting for an opportunity to return to Lebanon and work there.
None of this applies to today.
For its part, the regional situation has also changed drastically. The Lebanese civil war’s resolution, which was framed by the Taif Accords of 1989, came within the broader context of US-Syrian rapprochement in tandem with Syria taking part in the war to liberate Kuwait. Then, less than two years after the Taif Accords, the Madrid Peace Conference, which Syria also took part in, was held. Only two years after that, in 1993, the Palestinian- Israeli Oslo Agreement, on which much hope had been pinned, was concluded. In 1994, the Wadi Araba Treaty between Jordan and Israel complemented what appeared to be a climate in which breakthroughs were being made across the region. Today, all of that is part of a dead and buried past. Lebanon is linked, through Hezbollah’s mediation, to the regional tensions that could erupt into a confrontation between Iran and Israel at any moment, one that has, if it were to break out, the capacity to destroy everything that remains of the country. There is no side, domestic or foreign, that can control this catastrophic link, undermine it or contain it. The entire regime is facing worrying existential scenarios. Lebanon, seen through this lens, is nothing more than part of a depressing portrait that includes Syria, Iraq and Palestine. Added to the reasons for today’s pessimism is the collapse of the October Revolution. The fact that the major reason for its collapse was Hezbollah deterring the Shiites from taking part in it, brings us to this bitter truth: the perpetuation of the existing worn-out system is difficult, but changing it is infinitely more difficult. In the meantime, sectarian sentiments hateful of the other grew, fueled by all perseverance and determination available to them. Even within the “ruling coalition,” so to speak, establishing any form of cross-sectarian alignment seems an arduous task: it suffices, on the other hand, to recall that the Rafik Hariri-Hezbollah settlement, or what was called the “reconstruction-resistance duo,” enabled such an alignment to survive from 1989 till 2005, when Hariri was taken out of the picture.
Another issue is that the current crisis has not yet taken its final form. The worst is always expected, in terms of the future of the economy, living conditions and the security situation, a deterioration accelerated by the potential for an Iranian-Israeli war.
The remedies being proposed, from the IMF and international organizations to the parliamentary elections, seem faltering and crippled. They take one step forward before taking two steps backward. As for the crises, be they economic, political or social, they are proliferating by the day.
Time and its lessons, of course, also play a role. That is, the first experience’s failure induces a sense of despair in those thinking of trying again, though many of the impediments seen during the latter era emerged from the manner in which the former had been resolved.
The year 2021 is different from 1989, which provided us with years of a cold peace. Today, patchwork is the best case scenario, patchwork that needs to be inspected and revised hour by hour.

Maintaining support for the LAF is crucial for Lebanon’s security
Hanin Ghaddar/Al Arabiya/November 21/2021
With Lebanon on edge of collapse, unrest is expected to grow. In 2020, murders jumped 91 percent from 2019, while robberies increased 57 percent and car thefts hit a nine-year high, according to Information International.
Fighting over basic needs and goods will only increase as shortages grow, and clashes between people on the streets are likely to occur more often.
The only institution that still has any capacity to maintain minimal security standards is the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), but it is stretched thin. A worried leadership is concerned that deploying troops to crisis zones is becoming difficult in the face of rising fuel costs.
For this specific reason, LAF commander Joseph Aoun visited Washington earlier this month, where the talks focused on the needs of officers rather than military equipment.
Since 2005, US assistance to the LAF has been vital for the force’s continuity and unity, but amid the current economic crisis, this aid is becoming crucial to maintain the institution and its basic security objectives.
For the past three years, annual Foreign Military Financing (FMF) to Lebanon has amounted to $100 million, with a further $100 million in additional Defense Department spending on border security and training activities. Around $3 million has been dedicated to international military education. In comparison, the US has been the biggest donor to the LAF with assistance exceeding $4 billion since 2010.
The goal of this assistance has never been to eliminate Hezbollah. Realistically, the LAF cannot stand up to the group’s military capabilities, and the sectarian nature of any institution in Lebanon - including the army institution - means that any confrontation will divide the army and its leadership. This happened during the Lebanese civil war.
Broadly the financial and training assistance has helped the LAF counter a number of insurgencies and security threats, such as the ISIS offensive in the North in 2017, and local street clashes and internal violence.
For the US, and other European countries that have been supporting the LAF, the goal is to maintain security, especially when the country’s other institutions are collapsing during the worst economic crisis in Lebanon’s history.
This assistance also provides the US with a degree of leverage over critical decisions the country must make. These can vary from choosing security appointments to the advice offered to provide adequate protection of protestors during the 2019 protests.
The LAF track record of covering its remit hasn’t always been the best. It’s acknowledged that the institution is not ideal, and never will be. Given the political and economic woes in Lebanon this is hardly surprising.
Unfortunately, many LAF personnel have collaborated with Hezbollah over the years, along with several of its institutions, and some are guilty of violating human rights, and clamping down on freedom of speech. These include the military court and the army intelligence unit.
Despite this the LAF has managed to maintain a level of independence, in part because of US collaboration.
In recent months, the position taken by the LAF, and the strategic functions it provides to the country has shifted somewhat. Army commander Joseph Aoun has been the target of numerous media and political attacks from Hezbollah and its allies.
He will have taken comfort in the warm welcome he received during his visits to Washington. US support was clear when it placed sanctions on the Free Patriotic Movement’s Gebran Bassil.
Both Bassil and Joseph Aoun have presidential ambitions, and as Michel Aoun’s tenure comes to a close next year the competition between them will intensify.
This has made the LAF commander a persona non grata for Iran’s proxy and allies in Lebanon.
One of the main issues hovering over this frustrated approach against the LAF commander is the increased coordination between the US, the UK and the LAF to monitor the eastern borders of Lebanon. This capability comes via a network of sophisticated towers funded by the UK and managed by a British team in Lebanon.
The towers are placed along the border with Syria and each one can monitor an area of around 20 km. Although this project started in 2009, the collaboration has increased in recent years, and halting smuggling has started to bear fruit.
Hezbollah has escalated its efforts to discredit the general and the LAF, blaming the army for obstructing the investigation of the Beirut port blast, for example, and then accusing it of starting the Tayyouneh street clashes in October.
As the US assistance to the LAF increased by an additional $67 million in October, Hassan Nasrallah turned his campaign to target the “US interference in Lebanon” via its security assistance to the LAF, making the institution a natural target.
US assistance to the LAF has been purposely unconditional and unobtrusive, in order to maintain the independence of the institution. Meanwhile, Iran and its proxies have checked every “interference” category in Lebanon. This includes smuggling out subsidized goods, smuggling in weapons, and sending fighters from Lebanon to other conflicts across the region. Any effort taken to make Lebanon neutral is almost impossible in these circumstances.
Securing some level of security in Lebanon is essential, particularly when the parliamentary elections are getting closer, and with many activists under threat. The LAF assistance remains crucial in this regard, and the risk from halting US input is much larger than the risks resulting from its demise.

Lutter pour une Indépendance durable, à jamais. Pour toujours, une fois pour toutes.
Jean-Marie Kassab/Novembre 21/2021
Demain le 22 Novembre est supposément la fête de l’Indépendance. Drôle de fête, triste fête car rien à fêter et tout pour être triste.
Ce même jour en 1943 nous avons obtenu notre indépendance dans un concours de circonstances. En fait, même cette dénomination est fausse : car ce jour-là ce n’était que la fin du mandat Français et rien d’autre. Rien à voir avec l’indépendance, rien à voir avec la souveraineté nationale. Nous n’avons jamais eu d’indépendance, peut-être quelques petites années, une illusion d’indépendance, mais rien de plus. Tout le reste était guerres, après-guerre, et préludes à des guerres où les choix étaient imposés de l’extérieur avec l’approbation de l’intérieur. Triste Histoire…
Nous en sommes là, une fois de plus : l’Iran occupe le Liban, carrément, avec l’accord de nombres Libanais, dont 3 leaders, les trois présidences, ainsi qu’une bande de mafieux qui sont au pouvoir. Le comble est qu’ils sont appuyés par des Elus. Nos élus, et potentiellement ceux qui seront élus dans la mascarade qui s’annonce et nommée élections libres. Les élections dans un pays occupé ne sont qu’un show orchestré par un marionnettiste appelé l’occupant.
De plus, nous sommes en pleine déroute financière, insurmontable et peut-être irréparable sauf miracle.
Fêter l’Indépendance ? That is not the question.
Lutter pour l’ Indépendance? That is the question. Oui oui et oui. De toutes nos forces. Chasser l’intrus et foutre en tôle les collabos. Raser leurs têtes et les pourchasser là où ils se cacheront.
Lutter pour une Indépendance durable, à jamais. Pour toujours, une fois pour toutes.
Résister puis passer à l’offensive. Oui oui et oui…
Vive la Résistance.
Vive le Liban
Jean-Marie Kassab

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 21-22/2021
One dead, four injured in terrorist attack in Jerusalem's Old City
Jerusalem Post/November 21/2021
One person was killed and four were injured in a terrorist attack in Jerusalem's Old City at the foot of the Arab market descending to the Western Wall.
One man was killed and four others were injured in a shooting attack carried out by a Hamas member in Jerusalem’s Old City on Sunday morning.
Magen David Adom rescue services said that two of the injured were civilians and two were border police officers. One man was taken in critical condition to Hadassah-University Medical Center at Jerusalem's Mount Scopus with head wounds and was later pronounced dead.
A second civilian sustained moderate-to-severe wounds and the border police officers had light injuries.
Two female police officers rushed to the scene near one of the entrances to the Temple Mount and opened fire towards the attacker. Two male border police officers later ran to provide assistance.
The man killed in the attack was later identified as 26-year-old Eliyahu David Kay from Kibbutz Beer Yitzhak. Kay, an immigrant from South Africa was employed as a guide for the Western Wall Heritage Foundation. A friend of the family described Kay, one of four children, as “gentle and kind.” He had served in the Paratrooper’s Unit as a lone soldier after moving to Israel several years ago. His parents moved to Israel less than a year ago.
“There are no words, his father is in a daze,” he told The Jerusalem Post. “He was such a nice boy, it’s so hard to believe. It was a big dream for the family to move here. They are the most wonderful people, it’s such a shock.”
The two other injured civilians were identified as 46-year-old Rabbi Zeev Katzenelnbogen, a father of eight, and yeshiva student Aaron Yehuda Imergreen, who is hospitalized in serious condition at Shaare Zedek Medical Center.The attack, that took place at the Chain Gate in the Old City, was the second in less than a week. On Wednesday, two Border Policemen were lightly wounded in a stabbing attack on Hagay street in the Muslim Quarter, near the Ateret Kohanim yeshiva.
"This morning there was a severe shooting attack in the Old City of Jerusalem. We currently have one killed and three wounded,” said Prime Minister Naftali Bennett at the opening of the weekly cabinet meeting.
Bennett, who sent his condolences to the family of the man who passed away and asked to pray for those who were wounded in the attack said that he had received an update from the Public Security Minister Omer Bar-Lev and Police Commissioner Kobi Shabtai and that security forces have to increase their alertness in order to thwart further attacks.
“There was a very swift action of our forces, the two policemen who were at the scene and who very quickly neutralized the terrorist. However, this is the second recent terrorist attack in Jerusalem. I have directed the security forces to prepare accordingly and to be alert over concern for copycat attacks. We need to be on heightened alert and prevent further attacks,” he said.
Bar-Lev said that the attacker “moved through the alleys and fired quite a bit. Luckily, the alley was mostly empty because otherwise — heaven forbid — there would have been more casualties. The entire incident lasted 32 or 36 seconds. The actions of the female officers was operationally at the highest possible level.”Defense Minister Benny Gantz said that he wanted to commend the forces “who acted quickly and resolutely and thwarted a much more severe attack.”
Sending his condolences to the family of the man who was killed and his best wishes to the wounded, he said that Israel “will continue to fight terrorism everywhere it raises its head.” On Sunday night, Religious Zionist MKs Orit Struk and Simcha Rotman joined with hundreds of youth from a number of right-wing movements in a march and protest from the Jaffa Gate through the market where the terror attack took place to the Western Wall. The protest took place with the approval and escort of the security services.
Police officers at the scene opened fire at the shooter, an East Jerusalem Palestinian, and killed him, according to police. He was later identified as Fadi Abu Shkhaydam, a 42-year-old resident of Shuafat camp in east Jerusalem and a known Hamas member. His wife and son are said to have left the country several days before the attack. Bar-Lev who arrived at the scene of the attack said that Abu Shkhaydam came to pray at the al-Aqsa mosque on a daily basis and that on Sunday he arrived with a Beretta M12 and started shooting.
"There was a difficult incident this morning that was dealt with quickly and professionally by the men and women of the Israel Police," Bar Lev said. The terrorist is affiliated with Hamas' political wing who regularly prayed in the Old City, and whose wife escaped abroad three days ago. He used a standardized weapon that is uncommon in Israel," he said. In video from the scene shared on social media, a voice can be heard repeatedly yelling “help” in Hebrew, followed by several bursts of gunfire.
Prior to carrying out the attack, Abu Shehadam, wrote in a Facebook post that "God determines our destiny, but most people do not know. The question of our destiny is a question that God determines, God in His wisdom and greatness, He chooses whoever He wants and presents them to their destiny."
Hamas quickly took responsibility for the attack, calling it a "heroic operation” and warning “the criminal enemy and its government to stop the attacks on our land and our holy sites. [Israel] will pay a price for the iniquities it commits against Al-Aqsa Mosque, Silwan, Sheikh Jarrah and elsewhere.”
Israeli security forces later raided Shkhaydam’s home and the Rashidiya school where he taught religious studies in east Jerusalem. His relatives including his daughter, brother and nephew were also reportedly arrested by security forces.
Later on Sunday afternoon, an 18-year-old Palestinian stabbed a 67-year-old man in the coastal city of Jaffa, moderately wounding him. The attacker also attempted to stab the man’s wife before fleeing the scene.
The Palestinian, from the West Bank city of Jenin, was arrested an hour after the attack. While the defense establishment does not think that the attack in Jaffa is connected to the earlier attack in Israel’s capital, security forces have been placed on high alert in order to thwart any copycat attacks.

'Hamas Member' Kills Israeli, Wounds 3 in Jerusalem Shooting
Agence France Presse/November 21/2021
A militant of the Palestinian Hamas movement opened fire Sunday in Jerusalem's Old City, killing one person and wounding three before he was shot dead, Israeli officials, police and medics said. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett ordered security to be boosted and called for people to be on "heightened alert" over the risk of further attacks. The wounded, who included two civilians and two police officers, were rushed to Jerusalem's Hadassah hospital. One of them, a man in his 30s, died of his injuries, medical sources said without giving further details. "This morning there was a serious shooting attack in the Old City of Jerusalem," Bennett said in a statement. "At the moment we have one dead and three wounded. Two policewomen and one policeman quickly neutralized the terrorist." Police said the attacker had fired a "Carlo-type weapon", a type of submachine gun. The Old City is in the Israeli-annexed eastern part of Jerusalem, which Palestinians claim as the capital of their future state. Israel captured east Jerusalem in the 1967 Six-Day War and later annexed it, in a move not recognized by most of the international community. After the shooting, dozens of Israeli police officers deployed on the narrow streets of the historic walled city, as workers hosed down large pools of blood from the cobblestones, said an AFP reporter. The body of the attacker, who died at scene, was carried away on a stretcher.
'Premeditated' attack
Israel's Public Security Minister Omer Bar-Lev said the attacker was a Palestinian living in the Shuafat neighborhood in east Jerusalem. "He was a member of Hamas, the political branch not the armed wing," Bar-Lev told Israel's Kan television channel, saying he had been wearing long robes to hide his weapon.
"It appears he was wearing a large galabiya (robe) or that he had disguised himself as an Orthodox Jew," Bar-Lev said, adding the gunman's wife had traveled abroad three days ago, while his son was also out of the country. "It seems that this attack is premeditated," Bar-Lev said. Hamas, in power in the Gaza Strip, congratulated the gunman and hailed the "continuation" of the fight to "liberate" Jerusalem, but without specifically claiming the attack. It comes six months to the day since the end of an 11-day war in Gaza with Israel in May.
 'Terror' listing
On Friday, Britain said it intended to follow the United States and European Union in placing an outright ban on Hamas as a terror group, saying it was not possible to distinguish between the Islamists' political and military wing. Attacks targeting Israeli security forces are common in the Old City as well as in the occupied West Bank. They are often carried out by individual young Palestinian men in so-called lone-wolf attacks. On Wednesday, Israeli security forces shot dead a 16-year-old assailant who stabbed and wounded two police officers in the Old City. "This is the second recent terrorist attack in Jerusalem," Bennett said, adding he had ordered the security forces to "be alert... over concern for copycat attacks." The Jewish Hanukkah holidays begin on November 28. Some 200,000 Israelis live in east Jerusalem, alongside 300,000 Palestinians. There has also been regular unrest in the occupied West Bank. A 26-year-old Palestinian was killed on Tuesday during dawn clashes with Israeli troops on the road into the northern town of Tubas. Clashes routinely break out in the West Bank when Israeli forces enter Palestinian-administered towns to make arrests or after demonstrations.Excluding annexed east Jerusalem, around 475,000 Israelis live in settlements in the West Bank that are regarded as illegal under international law alongside more than 2.8 million Palestinians.

Eliyahu Kay from South Africa was killed in Jerusalem terror attack/Terrorist shoots Jews near Western Wall. Terrorist neutralized.
Arutz Sheva/November 21/2021
One person was murdered and another 3 were wounded, one moderately to seriously, this morning, Sunday, in a shooting attack near the Chain Gate near the Western Wall. The terrorist was neutralized by security forces. The name of the man who was killed in the terrorist attack in the Old City of Jerusalem was cleared for publication Sunday afternoon. The man was identified as Eliyahu Kay, an employee at the Western Wall Heritage Foundation and a recent oleh from South Africa.. The wounded were evacuated to Hadassah Ein Kerem, Hadassah Mount Scopus and Shaare Zedek hospitals in Jerusalem. One, who was fatally wounded, died of his wounds at Hadassah Hospital on Mount Scopus. Preliminary investigation found that the terrorist opened fire with a submachine gun at passersby and policemen who were at the scene. A knife was also found on the terrorist's person. Police believe that another terrorist played a part in the attack, and that he escaped the scene. Police are conducting searches for him. The Temple Mount was closed to Jews immediately after the attack. Public Security Minister Omer Barlev arrived at the scene of the deadly terrorist attack and provided details about the terrorist. According to Barlev, the terrorist is a member of Hamas' political wing. "His wife went abroad 3 days ago, his children are abroad." Barlev added that the attack was planned in advance. Police Commissioner Kobi Shabtai arrived said that the terrorist was known to the police. "The police response was quick, this is a serious incident - carried out by a source familiar to us," Shabtai said. "The police response was very fast, within 32 seconds they sought contact and eliminated the terrorist," the commissioner added.
Prime Minister Naftali Bennet spoke Sunday morning with Public Security Minister Barlev and Police Commissioner Shabtai following the deadly attack. The minister and police commissioner the Prime Minister of the details of the attack that took place this morning in Jerusalem.
The Prime Minister gave instructions to increase preparations in the Jerusalem area in order to prevent further attacks. Dimiter Tzantchev, European Union Ambassador to to Israel responded to the attack. "My thoughts are with the victims of the cowardly attack in the Old City of Jerusalem." Tzantchev wrote.
"Wishing a speedy recovery to those injured. I unequivocally condemn this senseless attack against civilians. Violence is never the answer." A paramedic stationed on an Magen David Adom (MDA) ATV, Yehoshua Sheetrit and an MDA Paramedic, Moshe Tubolsky, said: "As soon as we were informed of the shooting, we went to the scene. We arrived with the ATV, Sheetrit says, and saw two men in their 30s lying with gunshot wounds. Senior EMT and Medicycle Rider Baruch Weissman recounted: One of the wounded was unconscious and the other semi conscious. We provided them with life-saving medical care in the field and immediately put them on an ATV and evacuated them to a Mobile Intensive Care Unit that was waiting near the Jewish Quarter and from there was evacuated to the hospitals. One's condition is defined as critical and the other is serious. We evacuated them to Shaare Zedek Hospital and Hadassah Mount Scopus. Three other lightly wounded were evacuated by police ambulance."MDA Paramedic Elhai Sofer, who evacuated the critically wounded, added: "We arrived in MDA's Mobile Intensive Care Unit in the Jewish Quarter, where we joined a MDA ATV that was treating a 30-year-old man unconscious with no pulse and not breathing with gunshot wounds to his body. We put him in the intensive care unit and on the way to the hospital we tried to fight for his life whilst performing advanced resuscitation operations on him but unfortunately after a short time the doctors at the hospital had to pronounce his death."

New protests in Iran over water shortage
AFP/November 21/2021
More than 1,000 Iranians marched Sunday towards the governor’s office in the western province of Chahar-Mahal Bakhtiari to demand a solution to water shortages, state media reported. The march came two days after thousands of protesters converged on the central city of Isfahan to vent their anger after the lifeblood river dried up due to drought and diversion. Footage broadcast by state television showed crowds of protesters marching in the streets of Shahr-e Kord, the provincial capital of Chahar-Mahal Bakhtiari. They were heard chanting “it is forbidden to divert the water of Chahar-Mahal” and shouting slogans against “projects to transfer water to other regions.”Iran has endured repeated droughts over the past decade, including in the south. The Islamic republic has also experienced regular floods in recent years, a phenomenon made worse when torrential rain falls on sun-baked earth.
Scientists say climate change amplifies droughts, and their intensity and frequency in turn threaten food security. State television said Sunday’s protest come as wells, aquaducts and rivers have been drying up, including the Zayadneh Rood river that runs from the Zagros mountains in Chahar-Mahal Bakhtiari province to south of Isfahan city. Last week, hundreds of farmers also rallied to protest the drying up of the Zayadneh Rood that has been depleted of water since 2000. Earlier this month President Ebrahim Raisi promised to resolve water issues and said a committee would be formed to rehabilitate the river.

Iran claims to have foiled airline cyber attack
Arutz Sheva/November 21/2021
The Mahan airline, blacklisted by the US for supporting Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claims to have received cyber attacks, from arch-enemies, the US and Israel. A cyber attack against Iranian private airline Mahan Air has been foiled, Iranian state media reported on Sunday, according to Reuters.
The report stated that the flight schedule was not affected by the attack. The Mahan airline, established in 1992 as Iran’s first private airline, was blacklisted by Washington in 2011 for the support it provided to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Since then they have claimed to have received similar internal cyber attacks in the past. Tehran has blamed in the past such attacks on the United States and Israel. The United States and other Western powers meanwhile have accused Iran of trying to disrupt and break into their networks. Iran claims to have received other cyberattacks in the past, such as one last month when the sale of heavily subsidized gasoline across the country was disrupted by apparent cyberattacks, and disruption in train schedules when Iran's transport website was out of order due to a 'cyber distruption'.

Iranians boo Khamenei at protest and disavow Hamas in Gaza/“What they’re calling for is people-led regime change" in Iran.
Benjamin Weinthal/Jerusalem Post/November 21/2021
NEW YORK – A huge protest that took place in the Iranian city of Isfahan on Friday against worsening economic conditions and water shortages included boos against the country’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and opposition to Iran’s pro-Palestinian policies in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip.
The London-based news organization Iran International showed video footage of Iranians expressing disgust with Khamenei’s regime and the clerics who rule the theocratic state. The video “shows protesters booing when the speaker wishes health for Ali Khamenei, “ tweeted Iran International, adding in a second tweet “Thousands of Iranian people have joined the protest gathering of farmers on the dry bed of Zayandeh Roud to voice their anger after the city’s lifeblood river dried up. Footage show protesters chanting slogans against authorities and clerics ruling Iran.”
Iran International reported that “on the second anniversary of the Islamic Republic’s brutal crackdown on Iran’s 2019 protests, a citizen of Isfahan has changed the street sign ‘Martyrs of Gaza’ into ‘Martyrs of Nov. 2019.’’Iran’s regime murdered an estimated 1,500 Iranians, according to Reuters, during the 2019 protests against rising gas prices and economic and political corruption from the mullah state.
Thousands of Iranian farmers and their supporters gathered in the central city of Isfahan on Friday, state TV reported, in a major protest over water shortages in the drought-stricken region. “Let Isfahan breathe again, revive Zayandeh Rud,” chanted some of the demonstrators in a video posted on social media as crowds gathered in the dry bed of the river where protesting farmers have set up a tent city. “Our children want water to provide food for your children,” read a sign carried by a woman. Iran’s energy minister apologized for the water shortages. “I apologize to all of our dear farmers, and I feel ashamed for not being able to provide the water needed for their crops. With God’s help, I hope we can overcome these shortcomings in the next few months,” Ali Akbar Mehrabian told state TV. The farmers in Isfahan province have for years protested against the diversion of water from the Zayandeh Rud river to supply other areas, leaving their farms dry and threatening their livelihoods. A pipeline carrying water to Yazd province has been repeatedly damaged, according to Iranian media. While news reports have focused on the economics of the protests in Isfahan, Iranian experts note that the mass demonstration is a message that Iranians reject the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic. Kaveh Shahrooz, a Canadian-Iranian expert on Iran, tweeted: “The latest Iran protests will be presented to the West as a simple grievance or over water. Don’t believe it when it happens. The people are chanting (roughly translated): ‘by cannon, by tank, the clerics must go.’ What they’re calling for is people-led regime change.” In July, street protests broke out over water shortages in the oil-producing southwestern province of Khuzestan, with the United Nations’ human rights chief criticizing the fatal shooting of protesters. Iran rejected the criticism.
Reuters contributed to this report.

Iran claims Israel afraid of conflict with its 'axis of resistance'
Jerusalem Post/November 21/2021
Iran believes Israel is under a wider threat than in the past, and brags it could unite Gaza and the “northern front” against Israel. It believes that the West Bank could “explode at any moment.”Iran, in its usual bluster, is claiming Israel is afraid of a conflict with its “axis of resistance,” the term for the Iranian network of proxies and allies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. “It is clear that the Zionist regime is afraid of entering into a military conflict with the resistance on any front, because [Israel] knows that it will face a multifaceted response and that going back to a regional war in Israel will take it back decades and will be a major strategic defeat for the Zionists,” Tasnim News says. “The scenario of the destruction of Israel in the event of a regional war is now very realistic; especially considering the statements of the leaders of the Axis of Resistance about the necessity of uniting all the fronts of this axis against the enemy.”
Iran has sought to increasingly have its proxies work together. Often with remarks from Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Tehran indicates that it can coordinate between the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah and Iraqi Shi’ite militias.
“The Zionist regime is more concerned about the start of a regional war after the revelation of the regime’s weaknesses on the domestic front and its army, which showed a decrease in the Zionist deterrent power,” the Iran report says, referring to the May conflict between Israel and Hamas. Since then, Israel has drilled for future conflict, and has also recently done joint training with the US. Tehran assesses that Jerusalem is concerned about a multi-front war. “The evidence shows that Israel is not even able to resolve its military operations on one front, let alone clashes on several fronts.” This shows that Iran is planning to try to heat up multiple fronts. Oddly, the Islamic Republic claims that Israel “lost five wars with the Axis of Resistance since the July 2006 war with the Lebanese resistance.” It claims Israel lost the May conflict with Hamas.
IRAN BELIEVES Israel is under a wider threat than in the past. It brags it could unite Gaza and the “northern front” against the Jewish state. It believes that the West Bank could “explode at any moment.” Iran also wants to stoke sectarian conflict inside the Green Line, the report says.
“These are related to the strategic threat against the Israeli internal front, and from the external borders, in addition to southern Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen [in which] will be [included] other components of the Israeli threat in the event of a multilateral war. On the other hand, the increase of Iran’s military and technological power adds to this concern of the Zionists.”
Iran seems to have revealed its plans in this report. It says that Hezbollah coordinated intelligence with Hamas in Gaza during the May conflict. “He stated that a high level of coordination was observed between the various members of the resistance during the Battle of the Sword of Quds [the May conflict].”
Iran also wants to unite various Palestinian groups and stoke violence in Israel and the West Bank. “The Zionist enemy fears an increase in the military strength of the resistance forces in the region and believes that in the event of a regional war, the skies of occupied Palestine will be filled with thousands of missiles and attack drones from anywhere in the occupied territories – from north to south and east to west.”Tehran claims to know that Jerusalem is not prepared for a conflict by reading reports in Israeli media and think tanks. “On the Lebanese front, the Zionist enemy is seeking to test the deterrent power of the resistance. A few months ago, it tried to change the rules of engagement with Hezbollah and, for the first time in 15 years, targeted areas on Lebanese soil that met with an immediate Hezbollah response.” The claims here seem to relate to incidents in 2018 and in 2020.
“On the other hand, Israel still hopes for unprecedented security and intelligence cooperation with the Arab regimes with which it recently signed a normalization agreement.” Iran also claims Israel is stoking tensions between Saudi Arabia and Lebanon.
“On the Syrian front, the Zionist regime is trying to send threatening messages to the Axis of Resistance by intensifying its aggression, but the recent attack on the US base in Al-Tanf in the border triangle of Jordan, Syria and Iraq disrupted these calculations of the Zionists,” the report says.

Sudan's Military Agrees to Reinstate Ousted PM
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 21 November, 2021
A deal was reached between Sudan's military and civilian leaders to reinstate Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, who was deposed in a coup last month, military and government officials said Sunday. They also said that government officials and politicians arrested since the Oct. 25 coup will be released as part of the deal between the military and political parties, including the largest Umma Party. Hamdok will lead an independent technocratic Cabinet, the officials said. They said the UN, the US and others played “crucial roles” in crafting the agreement. They spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the deal before the official announcement, The Associated Press said. The coup, more than two years after a popular uprising forced the removal of longtime autocrat Omar al-Bashir and his Islamist government, has drawn international criticism. The United States, its allies and the United Nations have condemned the use of excessive force against anti-coup protesters. Sudanese have been taking to the streets in masses since the military takeover, which upended the country’s fragile transition to democracy. The agreement comes just days after doctors said at least 15 people were killed by live fire during anti-coup demonstrations. The military has tightened its grip on power, appointing a new, military-run Sovereign Council. The council is chaired by coup leader Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan. The Sovereign Council will meet later Sunday before announcing the deal, the officials said. A national initiative formed after the coup that includes political parties and public figures said in a statement that Hamdok would be reinstated and will form a technocratic Cabinet. It said the deal would be signed later Sunday along with a political declaration. It did not elaborate. The Forces for the Declaration of Freedom and Change, the group that spearheaded the uprising that culminated in Bashir's ouster, objected to any deals with the military. In a statement Sunday, the group reiterated its opposition to any new political partnership with the military, insisting the perpetrators of the coup should be brought to justice. “We are not concerned with any agreements with this brute junta and we are employing all peaceful and creative methods to bring it down,” the statement said. The group also renewed the call for nationwide protests against military rule.

Palestinians Show Solidarity with Hamas after Britain's Terror Designation
Ramallah - Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 21 November, 2021 The Palestinian Authority condemned on Saturday Britain's designation of the Hamas movement as a terrorist organization. The move is an "unjustified attack" against the Palestinian people that will force it to review its relations with London and role in the region and peace process, it said. Britain's interior minister Priti Patel on Friday said she had banned Hamas in a move that brings the UK's stance on Gaza's rulers in line with the United States and the European Union. "Hamas has significant terrorist capability, including access to extensive and sophisticated weaponry, as well as terrorist training facilities," Patel said in a statement. The organization will be banned under the Terrorism Act and that anyone expressing support for Hamas, flying its flag or arranging meetings for the organization would be in breach of the law, the interior ministry confirmed.
Patel is expected to present the change to parliament next week. The Palestinian foreign ministry condemned the designation, saying it was an "unjustified attack against the Palestinian people, who are suffering from the ugliest forms of occupation and oppression." In a statement, it said that by taking such a move, the British government has placed obstacles in achieving peace, consolidating calm and reconstructing the Gaza Strip. It noted that the move took place a week after Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett met his British counterpart Boris Johnson on the sidelines of the Glasgow climate summit to urge him to blacklist Hamas. Moreover, it noted that Patel is sympathetic with Israel, citing her visit years ago to Israeli settlements in the Golan Heights without first receiving the approval of her government. This time around, the designation has received government backing, in a "dangerous shift in traditional British policy towards the Palestinian-Israeli conflict," added the foreign ministry. It called on London to reverse its decision, saying it will continue to assess the impact the designation will have on Palestinian-British relations. Hamas had condemned the designation, saying it was a sign of bias towards Israel and a violation of international laws that permit the resistance of occupation. All Palestinian factions on Saturday announced the launch of a national conference against Britain and its designation, warning of the consequences of the move. They called on London to reverse its decision. In a statement after their emergency meeting, they said all Palestinian people are "united" in rejecting the designation. A representative of the Fatah movement said Hamas was a "main component of the Palestinian fabric and national Palestinian liberation efforts.""The Palestinian people will not allow any side to harm one of its main elements," he added. He called on all sympathizers with the Palestinian people, the world over, the United Nations, Arab League and other organizations to reject the British move and firmly confront it.

Libya's Dbeibah Registers Bid for Presidency
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 21 November, 2021
Head of Libya's Government of National Unity (GNU) Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah registered as a candidate for the presidency on Sunday despite having vowed not to do so as a condition of taking his current post and despite contested election rules that may prevent him from standing. Dbeibah's entry into a race that now features many of Libya's main players of the past decade of chaos adds to the turmoil over a vote that is due to take place within five weeks, but for which rules have not yet been agreed. Parliamentary and presidential elections on Dec. 24 were demanded by a UN political forum last year as part of a roadmap to end Libya's conflict, a process that also led to the formation of Dbeibah's interim unity government. Libya has had little stability since the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that ousted Maammar al-Gaddafi as the country fragmented among myriad armed groups. Government was split in 2014 between warring rival administrations based in east and west. However, the disputes over the election threaten to derail the UN-backed peace process that emerged last year after the collapse of an eastern military offensive to seize the capital Tripoli. The elections are being organized under a law issued by parliament speaker Aguila Saleh in September that set a first-round presidential vote for Dec. 24 but that delayed the parliamentary election to January or February. Dbeibah and some major political figures and groupings in western Libya have criticized Saleh's election law, saying it was passed improperly, and have called for both votes to be delayed until there is agreement on the rules. The electoral commission and Libyan courts are likely to rule on the eligibility of candidates in the coming weeks - a process that may itself stir new disputes.
Disputes
Dbeibah is likely to be a frontrunner in the election after implementing a series of populist spending measures in recent months including infrastructure projects and payments to support young newlyweds. The 63-year old hails from one of Libya's wealthiest business families, but he was not a prominent figure in his own right before the UN political forum chose him to lead the interim government overseeing the run-up to elections. As prime minister, he has pledged investment in Libyan regions that suffered neglect during the past decade of chaos, agreed major contracts with countries involved on both sides of the war and courted young people with financial support. He has not yet said publicly why he has chosen to break the televised promise he made when he was appointed that he would play no role in the election. Saleh's law might also rule him out as a candidate because it requires him to step down from his position three months before the vote, which he did not do. His best-known rivals include Gaddafi's son and one-time heir apparent Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Khalifa Haftar, and Saleh himself.

Protests Erupt against Haftar, Saif al-Islam's Run for President in Libya
Cairo - Khaled Mahmoud/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 21 November, 2021
Protests erupted in the Libya capital Tripoli after the son of late ruler Moammar al-Gaddafi, Saif al-Islam, and Libyan National Army (LNA) commander, Khalifa Haftar, announced their run for president. The elections commission said 24 figures have submitted their candidacy for the country's top post. Three applications were rejected because they failed to meet the required criteria, while 1.2 million people have so far received their voter cards. Speaker of the east-based parliament, Aguila Saleh, had also submitted his candidacy on Saturday. Meanwhile, head of the Government of National Unity (GNU), Abdulhamid Dbeibeh criticized on Saturday the electoral law, saying it was "politically tailored" to certain figures in order to "deprive the Libyans from determining their own fate." "Failure to amend the error will cost us dearly and will compound the suffering of the Libyans," he warned. Separately, head of the High Council of State, Khalid al-Mishri, reiterated that he would be boycotting the elections, saying he would neither run in the polls or vote in them. He revealed a proposal to hold the parliamentary elections in mid-February. "We want elections to be held based on the constitution or a constitutional foundation," he said, while demanding guarantees against vote fraud. He expressed his doubts that the presidential and parliamentary elections will be held on time on December 24 in line with the United Nations-led roadmap aimed at helping Libya end its crisis. In submitting his candidacy on Saturday, Saleh, who is close to Haftar, said the time has run out for amending the electoral laws. In Tripoli, people took to the streets to protest against Saif al-Islam and Haftar's run for the presidency. They held banners that read: "Insisting on holding the presidential elections without the constitution is a call for civil war." Another banner read: "No to military rule or war criminals." Protesters trampled on posters of Saif al-Islam and Haftar, while other brandished the Libyan and Amazigh flags.

Further Collapses in Houthi Ranks on 2nd Day of Joint Forces' Operation towards Taiz, Ibb
Aden - Ali Rabih/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 21 November, 2021
The Iran-backed Houthi militias continued to suffer losses during the second day of operations launched by the joint Yemeni forces on the western coast, in regions not included in the Stockholm Agreement. More collapses were reported among Houthi ranks amid the legitimate forces' advance on the Taiz and Ibb provinces. Observers predicted that the coming days will witness rapid field developments. On Saturday, military media announced that the forces had completely secured the al-Hays district in southeastern Hodeidah, surrounded the city of Barh west of Taiz and cut Houthi supply routes from Hodeidah and Ibb. The operation had caught the Houthis by surprise as they had withdrawn the west coast and intensified attacks on the Marib province. The Saudi-led Arab coalition, meanwhile, said on Saturday that it had carried out 15 attacks against the Houthis in Marib and al-Bayda in the past 24 hours. It had also provided support to 19 operations carried out by the joint forces on the west coast. On the first day of operations on the west coast, the joint operations had seized control of positions on Jabal Omar and al-Mahjar region that is located between Taiz and Hays. Dozens of Houthis were killed in the fighting amid a collapse in their morale and ranks. Soon after capturing the area, the forces reopened roads connecting Taiz and Hodeidah and set about dismantling mines and explosive devices that had been planted by the Houthis.

Blinken Encourages Tunisia Reform in Talks with President
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 21 November, 2021
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken encouraged Tunisia's leader to make reforms to respond to Tunisians' hopes for "democratic progress", the US State Department said on Sunday, nearly four months after President Kais Saied seized political power. Saied said last week he was working non-stop on a timetable for reforms to defuse growing criticism at home and abroad since he dismissed the cabinet, suspended parliament and took personal power in July. Last week, thousands of Tunisians protested near parliament in the capital, demanding he reinstate the assembly, while major foreign donors whose financial assistance is needed to unlock an International Monetary Fund rescue package for the economy have urged him to return to a normal constitutional order. "The Secretary encouraged a transparent and inclusive reform process to address Tunisia´s significant political, economic, and social challenges and to respond to the Tunisian people´s aspirations for continued democratic progress", the State Department said in a statement about a call between Blinken and Saied. It added that Blinken and Saied discussed recent developments in Tunisia, including the formation of the new government and steps to alleviate the economic situation. A Tunisia presidency statement said earlier that the United States would offer support to Tunisia once it has announced dates for political reform. Saied seized nearly all powers in July in a move his critics called a coup, a decade after Tunisia's revolution, before installing a new prime minister and announcing he would rule by decree. Saied has defended his takeover as the only way to end governmental paralysis after years of political squabbling and economic stagnation, and he has promised to uphold rights and freedoms won in the 2011 revolution.

The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 21-22/2021
شارل الياس شرتوني: إيران والحروب الإقليمية القادمة
Iran and the Incoming Regional Wars
Charles Elias Chartouni/November 21/2021
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/104289/charles-elias-chartouniiran-and-the-incoming-regional-wars-%d8%b4%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d8%b4%d8%b1%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%86%d9%8a-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%88%d8%a7/
“The war is the remedy [they] have chosen, let [them get] what they want…”, General William T. Sherman
The Iranian regime seems unrelenting and determined to pursue its subversion course throughout the Middle East. The late drone attack on the US military base of al Tanf in Syria betrays its unwillingness to normalize and engage the international community in a regional conflict resolution process, a comprehensive nuclear deal and demilitarization scenarios. The repeated military attacks, directly or by proxy, reflect the ambiguities of a regime unable to question its dissipated narrative, engage mandatory reforms, sort out priorities, reach out to the international community and tackle its multiple challenges domestically and internationally. It is intentionally pursuing destabilization politics throughout the region, double-barreled negotiations, preparation of future wars, and its late demeanor is inevitably conflict prone and ushers the next stage of civil wars in an a region that lost its bearings.
Political observers can hardly imagine how this region is going to avert the brewing wars that the Iranian regime is calling forth, whereas its inability to normalize owes to the pervasive sense of insecurity intertwined with enhancing illegitimacy, sturdy oligarchic foreclosures, and totalitarian worldview. The Iranian regime is bound by delusions and imagines that he is indefinitely able to outmaneuver its proliferating nemeses, while striving diligently to destroy the remnants of an unraveled geopolitical order and spawn chaos all along the seams of its faltering limes, Iran is manifestly opting for war and it will get what it wants. The monitoring of the regional events testify to the unrelenting imperial strivings of the Iranian regime, rising Sunnite antidotes, geopolitical realignments and military coalitions determined to sway its arrogance and finish off with its exceptionalism, at a time when Iranians are fed up with its fallacies and brutality.

The Clarity of the China-Russia-Iran Trilateral and the Ambiguity of US Security Policies
Raghida Dergham/The National/November 21/2021
Some believe that Iran’s influence will decrease due to the restrictions that could come with the anticipated nuclear deal with the Western powers – the US, Britain, France, and Germany – and Russia and China. However, the proponents of this view seem to have forgotten the huge implications of Iran’s membership of the China-Russia-Iran trilateral, albeit as its weakest link. Indeed, there is another school of thought that holds a dissenting view, believing that lifting the sanctions on Iran pursuant to the revival of the JCPOA, will release a financial windfall that will fuel Iran’s projects and ambitions. Furthermore, Iran’s membership of a military, political, and economic quasi alliance alongside major powers China and Russia will turn Iran into a regional hegemon more determined and violent in its quest to impose its system and ideology as part of the Persian Crescent project, especially in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Gulf, and beyond.
Over the outgoing week, all the players involved have stepped up the rhetoric surrounding their strategic positioning. On the US side, civilian and military officials revealed new security policies in the Middle East, in a comprehensive approach that confirmed US troops would remain in the region with adjustments to their areas of deployment. The US affirmed its commitment to the principles of determination, commitment, and cooperation reassuring its allies in the region, and affirming its ability to project power rapidly beyond its bases in the region to confront Iranian threats using ‘smart’ methods.
For its part, the Iranian leadership resorted to more than one method to assert its position in the strategic equations, flexing its military muscles on the field, and engaging strategically with major powers in a message of deterrence addressed to the US and the region’s leaders. Thus, the phone conversation between Russian President Putin and Iranian President Raisi carried a deliberate message that the two countries are discussing signing a comprehensive agreement similar to the 25-year pact signed between Iran and China, to complete a strategic Chinese-Russian-Iranian trilateral that could be further developed depending on how the relationship with the US and Middle Eastern powers – from Israel to the Arab Gulf states – would progress.
The agreement between Iran and Russia is not expected to be at the same scale as the Chinese-Iranian pact, yet it has interesting and specific implications, for example for Syria. The Russian and Iranian presidents agreed to step up their efforts to complete the deal possibly before the year ends. According to insiders familiar with the work of the drafting committees, the treaty would last at least ten years, and cover military, energy, and political cooperation where the two sides guarantee each other’s interests in multiple regions and issues.
Iran would be a large beneficiary and may even find itself in a very enviable position. Indeed, while the pact with China has had precious military and oil benefits for both sides, a comprehensive agreement with Russia would have the added value of Russia’s deep political involvement in the Middle East that could come in handy in Iran’s regional projects. If the Persian Crescent project is being implemented on the ground, the Syrian component of it definitely requires fundamental Russian-Iranian cooperation. In Syria, the Kremlin possesses the keys to Syria’s leadership through President Assad, while Iran possesses the keys to controlling Syria’s territory. One question is, who in Syria leads and who follows, Russia or Iran? As a result of the major agreements such as the one being drafted between Russia and Iran, part of the answer will lie in the shared objectives and partnership on the battlefield.
In Syria, this partnership intersects with the need to reshuffle the deck, amid a change in US policy, Israeli policies on Iran, and Arab openness to the possibility of welcoming Syria back to the Arab League. According to those pushing for the latter, there are two objectives for this openness: Countering Iran’s overwhelming influence in Syria to maintain Syria’s Arab identity away from the Persian lap; and capitalizing on Iran’s inability to finance the reconstruction of Syria, a necessary condition for its stability, to make Arab inroads into the country, weakening Iran’s expansion and the Persian Crescent strategy.
According to reports, Russia may implicitly not mind the reduction of Iranian influence in Syria. However, this will not be translated into a divorce with Iran. What matters for Moscow in the equation of reducing Iran’s influence versus reducing Assad’s influence, is Assad. As long as Moscow is not forced to make up its mind now, it is willing to play all musical notes in its Syrian symphony, be it Israeli, Iranian, or even American. If the Biden administration finds itself in need for a peaceful withdrawal from Syria without appearing to be handing over the country to Russia, the Kremlin is thus willing to ‘sympathize’ and facilitate this silently, and not gleefully, recalling the chaos of its withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Another question that arises in the context of the objectives of the China-Russia-Iran geopolitical trilateral, concerns Israel and the strategic equation between it and Iran in light of the agreements or pacts made between the parties to the trilateral. In other words, can China and Russia reserve the right to develop Iran’s military capabilities, as per their agreements, to the point that it could give Iran a military edge over Israel?
China and Russia’s relations with Israel do not suggest this is on the mind of their leaders. But the two giants could decide that reserving this right is necessary in the equation of their relations with the US, which under the Biden administration may appear less committed to Israel’s military edge – yet has kept this commitment in the grand US military strategy.
This outgoing week, the Biden administration will have launched its comprehensive approach to security policy in the Middle East, during Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s speech at the Manama Dialogue in Bahrain. The speech echoes remarks by US Central Command commander Frank McKenzie, at the National Council for US Arab Relations (NCUSAR). The Biden administration recently confirmed it did not intend to end “our permanent military presence in the region [that] has been guaranteed for more than 70 years, and this basic reality will not change”, while the Pentagon stressed that Iran’s continued threats require vigilance, and that protecting straits and waterways is imperative with continued destabilizing forces.
The US security rhetoric issued by several officials this outgoing week sets the stage for an important round of the nuclear talks with Iran on 29 November in Vienna. The rhetoric has summoned phrases such as “ongoing vigilance through presence and cooperation with regional partners”, singling out IRGC threats to the freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and activation of its proxies to threaten the Gulf and the Middle East.
At the time of writing, Sec. Austin would not have delivered his speech in Manama yet, however, the main features of the address meant to announce the US security policy have been revealed in a chat with the press prior to the event. He said that the security policy in the Middle East is based on “determination, commitment, and cooperation”, revealing that the US will maintain tens of thousands of troops in its military bases in the region, and that troops will remain in Iraq and Syria, perhaps in a new form.
The Biden administration wants to adjust the map of deployment of US troops in the region, which it says are able to rapidly deploy and project power. It wants to reassure allies in the region that its focus on the confrontation with China does not preclude it from maintaining forces in the Middle East.
The Biden administration argues that a ‘smart’ way should be found to confront Iran’s continued security threats, but hesitates when the principle of deterrence is invoked despite its affirmation that it still applies to Iran. The Biden administration, according to the Pentagon official, believes that there is no military solution to the threats from Iran and its proxies. This is the fundamental contradiction between the Biden approach and the approach of his predecessor Trump, who held Iran responsible for attacks by its proxies and pledged to respond directly against Iran. Biden’s team do not want to use military language, whether to deter or to respond.
The psychological factor in the strategic positioning taking place is not to be dismissed, especially in the phase of improving negotiating hands and demands, or the ceiling of military threats prior to the resumption of the nuclear talks in Vienna. The Biden administration has launched a reassurance offensive targeting its partners in the Gulf, and perhaps a beautification campaign for what it intends to offer to Iran as part of the nuclear deal/lifting the sanctions. In Vienna, after all, it will be out of the question to raise the issue of Iran’s regional activities, based on the US and European surrender to this Iranian condition backed by China and Russia.
The Biden administration has chosen to send a regional message to the Gulf countries to complement the diplomatic credentials chosen by Biden as the main headline of his leadership. He wants neither escalation nor confrontation. For his part, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei wants to take advantage of this opportunity to forge strategic alliances that outlast any US administration, on the basis of “take more then demand more”, empowered by Iran’s membership of the emerging anti-American trilateral.

Israel’s Syria policy could be coming to new crossroads - analysis
Seth J. Frentzman/Jerusalem Post/November 21/2021
The UAE foreign minister recently met with Bashar Assad, and the region now sees Syria as possibly being welcomed back into the fold by the Gulf states, Egypt and some other countries.
Israel has been closely watching changes in the region and Syria may be a key to understanding some of the choices that now face Israel, its partners in the US and the region, as well as Iran and Russia. What this means is that a new phase may be approaching.
To understand the new possibilities and challenges, it is worth considering several issues. First of all, Israel has been carrying on what is called a “campaign between the wars” – an attempt to prevent Iranian entrenchment in Syria.
In August 2017, reports said that Israel had struck arms convoys on their way to Hezbollah around 100 times. By January 2019, outgoing IDF chief of staff Gadi Eizenkot said that Israel had struck Iranian targets in Syria thousands of times. These are the parameters of the campaign to prevent Iranian entrenchment. US support for Israel’s airstrikes and campaign increased during the Trump administration.
In the report released by the lead inspector general of the United States covering Operation Inherent Resolve from July to October 2019, the US noted the airstrikes and implications.
“US CENTCOM [Central Command] assessed that Iranian backed forces in Syria might look to target US military personnel or its partner forces in Syria, if they view the US as complicit in Israeli strikes on its forces in Syria,” the report said. The report looks at the US role in Iraq and Syria in fighting ISIS. However, Washington had shifted its strategy to get Iran to leave Syria in 2018 and 2019. Iran-US tensions rose in 2019 in Iraq, and in 2020, America killed Qasem Soleimani, the IRGC Quds Force commander.
THE US report noted that, “according to media reports, suspected Israeli airstrikes on Iranian-aligned militia bases in Iraq in July and August elicited a rebuke from Iraqi parliamentarians and resulted in Iraqi government-imposed air restrictions on all foreign aircraft flying over Iraqi airspace, including Coalition aircraft.”
The US noted that “Iran’s presence in Syria supports Iran’s strategic objective of securing the regime from external threats. CJTF-OIR [the US anti-ISIS Coalition] said that Iran seeks to have a dominant position in the region, particularly in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, and that Iran’s strategic goals in a post-conflict Syria include retaining access to Hezbollah in Lebanon, maintaining the ability to strike Israel from Syrian territory, maintaining a military presence and military influence in Syria, and recouping investment through securing economic and security contracts in Syria.” Why does this matter? On Friday, a report at The New York Times claimed that an Iranian attack on the US Tanf Garrison in Syria was retaliation for Israeli airstrikes. “The drone attack, which caused no casualties, would be the first time Iran has directed a military strike against the United States in response to an attack by Israel, an escalation of Iran’s shadow war with Israel that poses new dangers to US forces in the Middle East,” the report said.
“Five so-called suicide drones were launched at the American base at Al Tanf on October 20 in what the US Central Command called a ‘deliberate and coordinated’ attack. Only two detonated on impact, but they were loaded with ball bearings and shrapnel with a ‘clear intent to kill,’ a senior US military official said,” according to the Times.
It is believed, according to the report, that “Iran may have believed that the drone strike would be seen as the initiative of militias rather than Iran. American officials said the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in Syria, Javad Ghaffari, is an aggressive supporter of using military force to oust American troops from Iraq and Syria.”
BUT SOMETHING else is happening in Syria. The UAE foreign minister recently met with Bashar Assad, the Syrian regime leader. This was symbolic and important, and the region now sees Syria as possibly being welcomed back into the fold by the Gulf states, Egypt and some other countries. This would change 10 years of policy.
Although Turkey and Qatar are not on board, a wider regional consensus could be forming. Meanwhile, the US is talking to Iran about a new nuclear deal. China and Russia want that deal to happen.
Ron Ben-Yashai, writing at Ynet, noted that “Israel also believes that in order to get rid of the Iranian presence near its border, or at least to reduce it, some indirect moves to help Assad must be made, so that he can spread his rule over all of Syria.
“There is even a political effort to recruit Washington to help Assad rebuild his country, so that the US will be some kind of a counterbalance to Russian influence in the region,” he wrote. The analysis here, based on the Israeli military's annual assessment, notes that there has been a decrease in threats in northern Israel. Iran’s “military establishment in Syria was halted,” the report claims. Hezbollah and pro-Iran militias were slowed down. There is analysis at Haaretz arguing that Arab countries opening up to the Assad regime could be good for Israel as well.
Reports emerged over the last week that an IRGC commander was removed in Syria at the request of Assad. IRGC Quds Force commander in Syria Mustafa Javad Ghaffari had supposedly been excluded for almost causing a war because of an attack on the US garrison.
This was “a major breach of Syrian sovereignty at all levels,” according to AlHadath, a Saudi television network. That could just be messaging rather than necessarily reflecting a major change in Iran’s footprint in Syria. The message is that the Assad regime can do more in Syria to rein in Iran. This contrasts with the assessment that the attack on Tanf was retaliation for Israel’s actions.
WE NEED to pause and unpack these narratives. The first report is that Iran chose to attack a US garrison in Syria to get back at Israel. This was supposedly because it feared attacking the Jewish state directly, but believed it could use plausible deniability to attack the US. The second report claims that the Syrian regime was able to get the Iranian commander who plotted the attack to be removed.
So the message is not just about the Syrian regime's power and Iran's reduced power, but also a quiet message that somehow the Syrian regime can prevent attacks on the US and Israel because the ones on the US garrison were reputed to be related to Iran wanting to strike the US in response to an Israeli action. Whether any of this actually happened is unclear. What is clear is that reports and officials want to present this message, even if there are contrasting narratives. What matters at the end of the day is that the overall trend of events in Syria is shifting.
The messaging alone may be shifting or there may be an actual shift, but when it comes to perceptions and the Middle East, those perceptions also matter. That means the regime wants to be portrayed as rolling back Iran but that Tehran wants to strike the US in Iraq and Syria.
It is also known that an Iranian drone was flown into Israeli airspace from Iraq in May during the Israel-Hamas conflict. That means pro-Iranian groups in Iraq can still threaten Israel. But the main issue overall is that the situation in Syria may be shifting.

Voting for polarization and disunity in Libya
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/November 21/2021
Is Libya set to erupt in flames all over again? It seems that its most prominent politicians and their foreign backers are doing their utmost to make it so.
After a decade of conflict, Libya desperately needs reconciliation and de-escalation. Yet the nation’s two most divisive figures — Saif Al-Islam Qaddafi and Khalifa Haftar — currently top the bill in the upcoming presidential election.
Libyan stability matters. Over the past decade, a stream of mercenaries, terrorists and weaponry flooding out of Libya’s southern borders have fueled a plethora of conflicts throughout sub-Saharan Africa. Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of migrants and refugees have taken advantage of the chaos in a bid to cross the Mediterranean and enter Europe. Libya has, furthermore, mutated into a proxy conflict for a spectrum of international players.
As tensions again approach boiling point, Libyan politicians can’t even agree on the regulations governing the election. An election law was unilaterally submitted by Parliament Speaker Aguila Saleh (himself a presidential candidate) without allowing MPs to vote on the measure. Article 12 of this law, which blocks serving officials from standing for the presidency, has proved particularly divisive, creating a genuine risk of major constituencies boycotting the vote or rejecting the results outright. Such a scenario could entail a regression back into armed conflict between a dizzying array of militias and mercenaries.
Both Qaddafi and Haftar face international war crimes charges, so how do they viably hope to be the international face of Libya during a phase when the nation desperately needs to reopen its doors to the world? Qaddafi was a central player in his father’s excessively brutal — and doomed — crackdown in 2011. Hence, a wide swathe of Libyans witnessed loved ones murdered as a result of Qaddafi’s actions. Haftar, likewise, is regarded as a warlord by many Libyans and a wholly unpalatable prospect as leader. There have already been vigorous protests against both figures’ participation. The international community will be tying itself up in knots if Libya’s next president is a designated war criminal. So it is better to act now in support of a fair and open process, in which consensus candidates can emerge.
Turkey became embroiled in the Libyan quagmire in 2019, when Haftar launched a series of new offensives, including against the capital Tripoli. An increasingly desperate Government of National Unity controversially signed away a large chunk of the Mediterranean as a Turkish exclusive economic zone in exchange for Ankara wading into the conflict on its behalf. Turkey flooded the country with thousands of Syrian militias, who blocked Haftar’s offensive but have since been accused of looting, rape and war crimes. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has not only gained highly contentious oil and gas drilling rights, he has also obtained military bases on the African continent that he will be in no hurry to surrender — despite calls for the departure of all foreign fighters. In early 2021, it was estimated there were 20,000 foreign mercenaries on Libyan soil.
At the Manama Dialogue last week, I asked Libyan Foreign Minister Najla Mangoush about the prospects for the election. Yet, beyond wishing everybody good luck and commenting that the procedures were all new, it was striking how reluctant she was to comment on a political process that has become so contentious that, just a couple of weeks previously, the Libyan presidency sought to force her suspension — a move that was angrily blocked by the government.
The international community will be tying itself up in knots if Libya’s next president is a designated war criminal.
Even though numerous other Libyans, including former Interior Minister Fathi Bashagha and ex-Prime Minister Ali Zeidan, have submitted their candidacies, the risk is that the campaign ends up becoming a polarizing battle between deeply divisive figures whose vigorous support bases and outsized national profile guarantee them a significant share of the vote.
In 2011, the West supported Muammar Qaddafi’s overthrow and then turned its back as Libya descended into factional bloodshed. There are risks of a similar scenario in 2021, with European nations failing to fully focus on the critical importance of this election or the incalculable risks if matters go awry. Although Libya’s stability is crucial for Europe, confused and contradictory Western policies from states like Italy, Spain and France have often exacerbated the crisis. Other interlopers must likewise stop cynically exploiting Libya as a square on their regional chessboard.
Following the suspension of parliament in Tunisia, all the so-called Arab Spring states have ultimately ended up with fewer political freedoms, higher levels of civil instability and greater economic dysfunction than they had prior to 2011. Revolutions that sought to expand the rights and freedoms of Arab peoples have only given rise to unbridgeable tensions and disunity. Likewise, in post-revolution Sudan, with widespread civil disorder and the army seeking to reassert power and depose civilian politicians, there are serious risks of a return to the bad old days of the Bashir era.
Libya still has a slim but genuine chance of bucking this trend — if voters can unite around a consensus presidential candidate and successfully hold parliamentary elections in a manner that doesn’t precipitate renewed bouts of fragmentation and strife.
The coming weeks decisively offer the stark choice between war and peace for Libya, with major consequences for Europe, Africa and the Middle East. Let us not see this notched up as yet another tragic missed opportunity. Likewise, rather than outside powers fighting for their proxies to dominate everything, they should amicably seek to capitalize economically from the peace dividend by playing a legitimate role in restabilizing and rebuilding this shattered nation.
Libyans can do infinitely better than opting for a war criminal as their next leader, while mortgaging their territories to foreign powers. Let us do everything possible right now to grant them every prospect for success.
*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.

Iranian regime on its knees and desperate for nuclear deal
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/November 21/2021
With the return of the nuclear negotiations between the Iranian regime, Germany and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council — the UK, US, China, Russia and France — fast approaching, it is clear that not all members of the P5+1 hold the same position regarding the agreement.
China and Russia are more likely to align themselves with Tehran due to their strategic and economic interests. It is, therefore, critical that the Western parties, particularly the US, approach the negotiating table from a position of strength. For this to happen, the West must understand that the Iranian regime is desperate for a revival of the nuclear deal due to the significant financial and sanctions relief that the JCPOA offers Tehran’s leaders.
It has become crystal clear in the three years since the Trump administration pulled the US out of the nuclear agreement that nobody can completely shield Tehran from the US sanctions. Therefore, Tehran needs the US to come on board. In fact, Iran’s state-controlled Arman-e-Meli newspaper surprisingly acknowledged on Saturday: “No country, neither China nor Russia, will be able to save our economy. We must try to lift the sanctions. The way out of the internal pressures and the (bad) economic situation is to get rid of the issue of sanctions and it will be solved with the JCPOA.”
Since the Ebrahim Raisi administration came to power in August, it has been attempting to increase the government’s leverage in the negotiations by rapidly advancing the country’s nuclear program.
However, the reality on the ground is that the regime is on its knees and desperately needs to revive the nuclear deal. It recently asked the US to unlock $10 billion to restart the nuclear talks. Based on a report released by the Financial Tribune, the Iranian regime’s budget deficit is “on course to reach 4,640 trillion rials ($16.79 billion) in the 2021-22 fiscal year, while the government is also facing an unfunded deficit of roughly 30 percent, or 3,830 trillion rials.”
The sheer force of the socioeconomic and political disasters created by the theocracy appear capable of inducing its downfall.
If Iran’s huge deficit continues, it will bring increasing inflation and contribute to the further devaluation of the currency. This will, in turn, add to popular frustration against the ruling clerics, which could trigger another nationwide uprising and threaten the theocratic establishment’s hold on power.
Raisi has formed a Cabinet full of members of the security apparatus — the Quds Force and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — offering yet another indication that the regime fears further uprisings. But the regime’s crises are so deep-rooted that the wisdom of such policies is highly questionable. The sheer force of the socioeconomic and political disasters created by the theocracy appear capable of inducing its downfall. Almost every sector of society is out in force with a growing list of demands and grievances that the regime cannot address.
In addition, the regime is increasingly concerned about its regional isolation and how the geopolitical chessboard of the Middle East is tipping the balance of power against Tehran.
From the perspective of the Iranian leaders, the nuclear deal will address such concerns because it will give Tehran global legitimacy and will reintegrate the country into the global financial system. As the Arman-e-Meli newspaper recently warned: “We must take care of the security circles around the country. Recently, the Zionist regime has been trying to form a regional and international coalition against our country. These threats should not be ignored. It should not be taken lightly, but it can be very serious.”
The newspaper added: “A front is forming in the region ... The prime minister of the Zionist regime has announced that the anti-Iranian alliance in the region will take a stronger shape. This front can be dangerous and a threat to us. Negotiations must begin peacefully.”
Therefore, the US must maintain its leverage in the negotiations until Iran’s leaders fulfill all the demands required to prevent the regime from obtaining nuclear weapons.
America and its European allies must not enter nuclear negotiations with the Iranian regime from a position of weakness. The West has significant leverage over the theocratic establishment because Tehran is desperate for financial and sanctions relief.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist.Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh