English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For November 21/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
A woman in the crowd raised her voice and said to him, ‘Blessed is the womb that bore you and the breasts that nursed you!’But he said, ‘Blessed rather are those who hear the word of God and obey it
Saint Luke 11/27-32/:”A woman in the crowd raised her voice and said to him, ‘Blessed is the womb that bore you and the breasts that nursed you!’But he said, ‘Blessed rather are those who hear the word of God and obey it!’ When the crowds were increasing, he began to say, ‘This generation is an evil generation; it asks for a sign, but no sign will be given to it except the sign of Jonah. For just as Jonah became a sign to the people of Nineveh, so the Son of Man will be to this generation. The queen of the South will rise at the judgement with the people of this generation and condemn them, because she came from the ends of the earth to listen to the wisdom of Solomon, and see, something greater than Solomon is here! The people of Nineveh will rise up at the judgement with this generation and condemn it, because they repented at the proclamation of Jonah, and see, something greater than Jonah is here!

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on November 20-21/2022
A Family's Justice Journey - Holding Lebanon to Account for the Death of an American, Amer Fakhoury
Audio Interview with Amer Fhkoury two daughters Gulia and Zoya
Lantos Foundation for Human Rights & Justice/We are proud to stand with the Amer Fakhoury Foundation,
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Mar Beshara Boutros Al-Rahi warns against underestimating selection of next president: We hold them responsible for the destruction of the state
Bishop Elias Aoudi: We call on officials to carry out their duties: elect a president, form a government, restore life to the judiciary and justice for people, and illuminate their lives with absent electricity.
UN Secretary-General praises conference on establishment of ME WMDFZ in Beirut
As Lebanon power vacuum drags on, Bassil tests water for presidential bid
Report: Hezbollah sends Bassil clear signals rejecting his nomination
Beirut Economic Forum to be inaugurated by MP Mikati on November 24
Cairo airport customs foil Lebanon ivory smuggling bid

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 20-21/2022
Pope encourages COP27, recalls Laudato Si’ Action Platform anniversary
Israeli Army Chief Heads to US to ‘Reinforce Armies’ against Iranian Security Threats
Israeli Far-Right’s Demand for Defense Post Hinders Netanyahu’s Coalition Bid
Iran intensifies crackdown in Kurdish area; rights group says four killed
Negotiating with Moscow would be capitulation, Ukraine presidency says
A Message from Ukraine by Volodymyr Zelensky, review: witty, with not a whiff of windbaggery
All of Russia's neighbours are in danger, Latvian military chief says
Russia’s Shivulech Volcano Extremely Active, Threatens Eruption, Warn Scientists
Renewed Shelling Threatens Key Ukrainian Nuclear Plant
Turkish air raids in Syria kill regime troops and Kurdish forces
Türkiye Strikes in Syria, Iraq a Week after Istanbul Bombing
US deploys bombers in response to North Korea missile tests

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 20-21/2022
Is Multiculturalism Destroying Western National Identities?/Giulio Meotti/Gatestone Institute/November 20, 2022
The Danger of Unconstrained Wars and Unpredictable Escalations/Raghida Dergham/November 20, 2022
Iran… Rage and Confusion/Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/November, 20/2022
The Iranian regime’s unsolvable crisis/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/November 20/2022
Turkiye may be falling back into the terror quagmire/Yasar Yakis/Arab News/November 20/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on November 20-21/2022
A Family's Justice Journey - Holding Lebanon to Account for the Death of an American, Amer Fakhoury
Audio Interview with Amer Fhkoury two daughters Gulia and Zoya
The Global Liberty Alliance Podcast • Nov 15
https://anchor.fm/global-liberty-alliance/episodes/A-Familys-Justice-Journey---Holding-Lebanon-to-Account-for-the-Death-of-an-American--Amer-Fakhoury-e1ql5v9?%24web_only=true&_branch_match_id=741789071296737917&utm_source=web&utm_campaign=web-share&utm_medium=sharing&_branch_referrer=H4sIAAAAAAAAA8soKSkottLXLy7IL8lMq0zMS87IL9ItT03SSywo0MvJzMvWT9V3LfQscnRyqwwpTQIAtLXe4jAAAAA%3D

Lantos Foundation for Human Rights & Justice/We are proud to stand with the Amer Fakhoury Foundation,
We are proud to stand with the Amer Fakhoury Foundation, led by the bold and fearless daughters of Amer Fakhoury, a Lebanese-American who was tortured and unjustly detained by Lebanese officials. We join them in calling for the U.S. to take stronger action to stop the Lebanese government’s abuse of Lebanese-Americans. Without accountability, the abuse will continue and it will destroy the lives of innocent men and women, as it did with Amer Fakhoury. An important step would be imposing Magnitsky or Khashoggi-style sanctions on those Lebanese officials responsible for the imprisonment of Amer and others like him. This would send a powerful message that such abuse of American citizens will not go unanswered.
https://www.amerfakhouryfoundation.org/accountability
https://www.facebook.com/172734256138997/posts/pfbid0D22nG58bT5ugkqTNT3EdwqCJMx9baxFn5NPNwc7Q8SbddVGZ814mNdESo6DizKzul/?mibextid=Nif5oz

Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Mar Beshara Boutros Al-Rahi warns against underestimating selection of next president: We hold them responsible for the destruction of the state
NNA/November 20/2022
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Mar Beshara Boutros Al-Rahi, warned against underestimating the selection of the next President of the Republic. "We elect a president to restore independence. Any good option will save Lebanon, and any bad option will destroy it... Therefore, we appeal to the deputies not to fall victim to fraud, misinformation, settlements, and fleeting electoral promises, and on the other hand, prey to power, threats, and intimidation," Rahi said during Sunday Mass service in Bkirki this morning. "The president of Lebanon is not elected by threat and imposition," The patriarch underscored. He considered that the country needs a savior president who declares his commitment to the project to get Lebanon out of its crisis, through forming a rescue government, reviving the work of the Lebanese constitution, restoring the national partnership, applying expanded decentralization, implementing political, administrative, judicial and economic reform programmes, inviting brotherly and friendly countries to organize a conference to assist Lebanon, finding a final and humane solution to the issues of the Palestinian refugees in Lebanon and the displaced Syrians, and keeping Lebanon away from the axes.

Bishop Elias Aoudi: We call on officials to carry out their duties: elect a president, form a government, restore life to the judiciary and justice for people, and illuminate their lives with absent electricity.
LCCC/November 20/2022
In his Sermon today Bishop Aoudi  said: "We regret that selfishness controls the souls of those in power in our country. They seek to expand their silos in order to store in them what they have gained and will gain, instead of assuming their responsibilities and helping the citizens to live a comfortable and dignified life. What is important to them is that their interests are safeguarded and that they eat, drink and educate their children abroad, while the citizens and their children groan, seeking Behind their livelihood is the sweat of their brow and oppression, until when will they forget that God is the true owner of everything they have? Personality and grudges, and look with compassion on a people whose powers have been exhausted in pursuit of crumbs to satisfy their hunger. Hear the voice of the Lord through the cry of conscience. Do your duties. Elect a president, form a government, reform institutions, restore life to the judiciary and justice for people, illuminate their lives with absent electricity and the light of good deeds. What matters to people is the future, so we must overcome the past and its grudges, and look for a way out of the impasse.Reviewing the past is necessary to take lessons, and not repeat mistakes. But slowing down progress is not in anyone's interest. To a decrease in progress The political disease. We are witnessing a decline in morals, crimes and thefts. Even the electricity wires and sanitary sewer covers, which have become traps for passers-by, have not been spared. Things will not be straightened unless the elements of the state are formed, i.e. a president, government, administration and judiciary, to become effective, govern, accountable and punished.” And he concluded: “Our call today is to learn the lesson that Christ wanted us to memorize before it is too late. We called on us to learn from the school of the Blessed Virgin how to live humility, love, compassion, and abandon ego, so that all creation may be blessed.”

UN Secretary-General praises conference on establishment of ME WMDFZ in Beirut
NNA/November 20/2022
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants welcomed, in a statement, "the commendation issued by the United Nations Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, for the successful conclusion of the third session of the Conference on the Establishment of a Zone Free of Nuclear Weapons and Other Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East."The statement added that "the Secretary-General congratulated the countries participating in the conference, led by Lebanon, represented by the acting permanent representative, Jean Mourad, for the constructive deliberations that touched upon the areas that are considered a red line."

As Lebanon power vacuum drags on, Bassil tests water for presidential bid
The Arab Weekly/November 20/2022
Senior Lebanese politician Gebran Bassil said on Thursday he was working to find a compromise candidate for the presidency who would be able to push through crucial reforms, but that he would run for the post himself if he deemed a chosen candidate a bad option. Lebanon has had neither a head of state nor a fully empowered cabinet since Michel Aoun’s term as president ended on October 31, an unprecedented vacuum even by the standards of a country that has enjoyed little stability since independence. The vacuum marks a new phase in the crisis that has hit Lebanon since its financial system collapsed in 2019, impoverishing a large swathe of people, paralysing banks and fuelling the biggest wave of emigration since the 1975-1990 civil war. The presidential post is reserved for Christians, but part of the stand-off reflects rivalries among that community as well as crucial political and religious balances in the country.
“I am the head of the biggest parliamentarian bloc and it is my total right to be the candidate and promote myself but I see that the existence of Lebanon is much more important than this and it’s now the existence of Lebanon that is at stake,” Bassil, a Maronite Christian, who is one Lebanon’s most influential politicians, said in an interview. “I took the decision not to present myself in order to avoid the vacancy and facilitate the process of ensuring a good profile with a high possibility of success. I did not do this to have the vacancy and a bad person to fill the void,” he said. “I will not accept to have a bad president and in that case of course I would run.”Bassil is head of the FPM, founded by the just stepped down Aoun, his father-in-law. He was sanctioned by the United States in 2020 for alleged corruption and material support to Hezbollah. He denies the accusations. With politicians showing no compromise in a tussle over state power, some political sources and analysts say a compromise on the presidency may demand the type of foreign mediation that has saved Lebanon from such stand-offs previously. Bassil said he was in Paris as part of a broader effort to create a framework that could be agreed domestically and internationally that would ease the process for the new president to push through crucial economic reforms without the repeated blockages of the past. France has spearheaded international efforts to rescue Lebanon from its deepest crisis since the civil war, but to no avail.
Bassil, who won plaudits for playing a behind-the-scenes role in US-brokered talks to delineate Lebanon’s maritime boundary with Israel by liaising with Hezbollah, said he hoped a breakthrough on the presidency could be achieved by the end of the year, but that even that was “dangerous” in terms of delays.
“Frankly, if what we are trying to do does not succeed, I don’t see a chance in the near future and the vacancy may last for a long time,” he said. “That’s why the country can’t take this and live with it so we need to succeed in finding a solution.”

Report: Hezbollah sends Bassil clear signals rejecting his nomination
Naharnet/November 20/2022
Hezbollah has informed Free Patriotic Movement head Jebran Bassil that it will support Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh’s presidential nomination and will “offer any facilitations that can broaden consensus over his elections,” a media report said on Sunday. “It has sent Bassil unequivocal signals that it will not back his own nomination under any circumstances” although it is “keen on preserving the political alliance with him,” Kuwait’s al-Rai newspaper reported. “Hezbollah, which is extremely dismayed by Bassil’s deliberate leaking of his discussions with the party’s leadership, believes that Bassil’s drive and his arbitrary attacks stem from his unhidden desire to prepare the circumstances for his own presidential nomination, with what that requires of prolonging vacuum and working on elimianting those who have the highest chances,” highly informed sources told the daily. “Bassil’s secret meeting with Speaker Nabih Berri and his deliberate leaks from Paris led to an understanding between Berri and Hezbollah on categorically rejecting Bassil’s supposed nomination for the presidency,” the sources said. Sources informed on the presidential file meanwhile told al-Rahi that in the wake of Bassil’s leads and statements from the French capital, Franjieh’s backers decided to carry out several steps, most importantly “showing openness to the equation of Franjieh for president and Nawwaf Salam, or anyone else from the same alignment, for premier, in a way that would achieve Lebanese-foreign agreement on finalizing the election.”Berri will meanwhile explore the stances of the Gulf countries over the presidential election, the sources said, adding that Franjieh’s backers have also decided to “open communication channels with the Lebanese Forces to guarantee the participation of its parliamentary bloc in any electoral session in which the Marada Movement leader can secure victory, at least through casting blank votes, which would drop the excuse of Christian boycott of any session that would see Franjieh’s election.”Hezbollah is also “open to consensus on any other name which might enjoy broad domestic, international and Arab support, seeing as it wants to create an atmosphere that would allow for international-Gulf involvement in Lebanon’s revival process, after it became reassured over its firm influence and got convinced that no one would protect its weapons other than its weapons,” the sources added.

Beirut Economic Forum to be inaugurated by MP Mikati on November 24
NNA/November 20/2022
Prime Minister Najib Mikati will inaugurate upcoming Thursday at the Phoenicia Intercontinental Hotel in Beirut, the activities of the Beirut Economic Forum 2022, which is organized by the Union of Arab Banks with the participation of 500 banking and financial figures.
The forum will be held over two consecutive days under the headline: Arab experiences in economic reform to reach an agreement with the International Monetary Fund. President of the World Union of Arab Bankers and the Chairman of the Executive Committee of the Union of Arab Banks, Dr. Joseph Tarabay, described the event as “an important experience for Lebanon, the Arab countries, and the IMF,” particularly in sharing expertise and results.He added: “The forum will constitute an occasion for reviews by official Lebanese institutions and the participating Arab countries that have previous experience with the IMF and are still cooperating with it." Tarabay hoped that said forum would be pave the way for re-launching various conferences and forums in Beirut. In turn, the Secretary-General of the Union of Arab Banks, Dr. Wissam Fattouh, commended the holding of the forum in Beirut, saying: “The qualitative banking and economic turnout of the participating delegations from various Arab and foreign countries proves the great confidence that Beirut enjoys, as the capital of conferences."He added: “This forum comes in light of the negotiations that the Lebanese government is conducting with the International Monetary Fund, with the aim of reaching an agreement under which the Fund will grant Lebanon financial and technical support, in exchange for the Lebanese government's commitment to a comprehensive reform program.” He went on to indicate that an integrated paper prepared by the Union's experts will be presented from a neutral point of view, including its proposals and vision for the economic, monetary and banking reform program, which can be adopted by the Lebanese government to overcome its crisis and which Lebanon can present to the IMF in the framework of negotiations with it. "The Union has invited to the forum a group of Arab experts to present their countries' experiences in negotiating with the International Monetary Fund, and how to reach agreements with it," Fattouh maintained. Finally, he considered that “this forum will constitute a high-level platform for presenting the experiences of these countries, identifying the difficulties and challenges that permeated them, and benefiting from their negotiating track with the International Monetary Fund,” disclosing that “the forum will also address the issue of the crisis of recovering depositors' money in Lebanon and present the reform paper prepared by the Union of Arab Banks to advance the Lebanese economy.”

Cairo airport customs foil Lebanon ivory smuggling bid
Gobra Mohammed/Arab News/November 20, 2022
CAIRO: Customs at Cairo International Airport have thwarted an attempt to smuggle three ivory statues that are prohibited from being exported or traded. The statues were seized, preventing their export in a shipment of personal belongings to Lebanon. Legal measures are underway in accordance with Presidential Decree No. 102 of 1983 to implement Egypt’s accession to the CITES convention and Egyptian Environmental Law No. 4 of 1994, and its amendments. Ahmed Abdel Mohsen El-Shahawi, director general of Air Export Customs, executed the legal measures and issued a seizure report, implementing instructions from the head of the Customs Authority. Customs officers led by El-Shahawi were able to intercept the smuggling attempt. The seizure came as customs officer Ramadan Abu Raya became suspicious of 31 parcels of baggage listed in export documents as personal belongings. When the parcels were inspected by a committee led by Mohamed Kamal — director of an investigation unit — it was found that there were two elephant statues as well as a gazelle statue. When presented to the Wildlife Department, officials were informed that the statues and bases were ivory. Separately, customs officers in the First Administration of Terminal 1 at the airport foiled three attempts to smuggle a quantity of medical supplies for orthopedics, in violation of Quarantine Law No. 44 of 1955 and its amendments. Last week, customs officers at the Second Department of Passenger Building No. 2 at the airport thwarted an attempt to smuggle a quantity of diamonds, silverware and precious stones. The smugglers were in violation of the provisions of Law No. 68 of 1976 regarding the control of precious metals and valuable stones, and its amendments. The seizure came during inspection procedures for passengers arriving from Amman on a Royal Jordanian Airlines flight.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 20-21/2022
Pope encourages COP27, recalls Laudato Si’ Action Platform anniversary
NNA/Sunday, 20 November, 2022
As delegates continue deliberations at the 2022 UN Climate Change Conference in Egypt, Pope Francis offered his encouragement to efforts to protect the environment. Speaking at the Angelus on Sunday, the Pope said he hopes the COP27 will produce lasting fruits on behalf of combating climate change. “I wish to recall the COP27 summit on the climate taking place in Egypt. I hope that steps forward are taken with courage and determination, in the footsteps of the Paris Accords.”
LAUDATO SI’ ACTION PLATFORM
The Pope also recalled the Laudato Si’ Action Platform, which was set up to consolidate efforts to implement the Pope’s 2015 encyclical on the Care of our Common Home. He noted that Monday marks the first anniversary of the Platform, which “promotes ecological conversion and lifestyles consistent with it” and is overseen by the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development. Pope Francis said there are around 6,000 participants in the initiative, including individuals, families, associations, businesses, and religious, cultural and health institutions. “This is a great start to a seven-year journey aimed at responding to the cry of the earth and the cry of the poor. I encourage this crucial mission for the future of humanity, so that it may foster in everyone a concrete commitment to care for Creation.”
TALKS ONGOING AT COP27
During the coming week, ministers attending COP27 will try and break the impasse on a range of issues and ensure the world keeps from lapsing on climate ambitions. In all, about 200 countries are negotiating next steps on cutting the emissions that cause global warming. During his speech on Friday, US President Joe Biden said the United States saw its mission to avert climate catastrophe as not only an imperative but through "the eyes of history". He said the "very life of the planet" was at stake. During the first week, the World Bank announced the creation of the Global Shield Financing Facility Instrument to help nations experiencing heavy economic loss due to disasters induced by climate change. Germany is committing roughly $170 million to the project, while other countries, including Austria, have provided a total of $225 million. Meanwhile, campaigners have staged a march inside the COP27 conference centre. The group chanted slogans like "no climate justice without human rights." --- Vatican News

Israeli Army Chief Heads to US to ‘Reinforce Armies’ against Iranian Security Threats
Ramallah - Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 20 November, 2022
Israeli Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi will kick off a visit to the United States on Sunday to discuss the security challenges in the region. This will be his second visit to the US since assuming his post and his last before leaving office on January 17.  An Israeli army statement said he is set to meet with senior officials and officers to discuss reinforcing security in the Middle East, discuss security challenges in the region, topped by the threat posed by Iran, and strengthen cooperation between armies. During his five-day visit, he will meet convene with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, US Central Intelligence Agency William Burns, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley and other officials. Kochavi will visit the United States Central Command’s headquarters in Tampa (Florida) to conduct “a joint strategic assessment of the situation” with head of the US Central Command General Michael Corella and other senior officers. Last week, Corella visited Israel and met Kochavi as part of efforts to develop joint military capabilities against the recent threats in the Middle East, especially Iran. Israel’s outgoing defense minister Benny Gantz concluded on Friday a visit to Greece. There, he said Israel would continue to act against Iran’s efforts to establish “terrorist bases” on its borders. Gantz accused Iran of “being involved in the war against Ukraine” while it continues to support “terrorism” in Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank, and to develop its nuclear program. “Iran's nuclear program and the use of Iranian drones by Russian forces in Ukraine is evidence that the alleged aggression of Tehran continues to be a grave threat to the region and the world,” Gantz warned. “It is clear that the global threats we see today are only the seeds of the challenges that will develop and grow in the future, impacting national security, food supplies, immigration, and energy resources,” he continued. Gantz cited global and regional challenges that countries of the eastern Mediterranean are facing, such as the war in Ukraine and ongoing tensions with Iran. “The implications of the war in Ukraine are bleeding across national borders. The politics of extremism and terrorism are impacting countries around the world,” he said.

Israeli Far-Right’s Demand for Defense Post Hinders Netanyahu’s Coalition Bid
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 20 November, 2022
Israeli Prime Minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu's efforts to swiftly form a government faltered on Sunday as a prospective far-right coalition partner demanded the cabinet role of defense minister. A clear right-wing victory in the Nov. 1 ballot - ending nearly four years of political deadlock - raised expectations within Netanyahu's conservative Likud of speedy alliances with like-minded religious-nationalist parties. But fissures have emerged between Likud and the powerful Religious Zionism party whose hard-line settler leaders oppose Palestinian statehood and want the occupied West Bank annexed - views in direct opposition to successive US administrations.  Religious Zionism lawmakers are demanding party leader Betzalel Smotrich become defense minister in order to impact policy in the West Bank, more than half of which is under full Israeli military control and which the Palestinians want for a future state. Likud wants to keep the key post. "There was still misunderstandings and disagreements on the matter of Smotrich. I hope this will be worked out soon," Likud lawmaker Miki Zohar told Kan radio, adding that defense was "the most important portfolio" for Likud. One Religious Zionism lawmaker, Orit Strock, said her party would also accept the finance portfolio but was unwilling to accept anything that would not allow it to wield "true influence" on settlement development in the West Bank. "He (Netanyahu) is not treating us as partners, but as excess baggage," Strock told Kan. Even the finance role would present problems for Netanyahu, who had said before the election that Likud would keep the big three portfolios: defense, finance and foreign affairs. Most countries view the settlements as illegal, a view Israel disputes, and the Palestinians say their expansion denies them a viable state. Whichever portfolio Religious Zionism lands, the incoming government looks to be the most right-wing in Israel's history, forcing Netanyahu into a diplomatic balancing act between his coalition and Western allies.

Iran intensifies crackdown in Kurdish area; rights group says four killed
Parisa Hafezi/DUBAI (Reuters)/November 20, 2022
Iran's clerical rulers have stepped up suppression of persistent anti-government protests in the country's Kurdish region, deploying troops and killing at least four demonstrators on Sunday, social media posts and rights groups said. Nationwide protests, sparked by the death of 22-year-old Iranian Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini in September in the custody of morality police, have been at their most intense in the areas where the majority of Iran's 10 million Kurds live. Videos on social media, unverifiable by Reuters, showed a convoy of military vehicles with heavily armed troops, purportedly in the western city of Mahabad. The sounds of heavy weaponry could be heard in several other videos. The Norway-based human rights group Hengaw said military helicopters carried members of the widely feared Revolutionary Guards to quell the protests in the Sunni-dominated Kurdish city of Mahabad. In a statement, carried by state media, the Guards confirmed "strengthening" their forces in the northwestern Kurdish region to confront "terrorist separatist groups" in the area. "The security of the people is our red line ... and dealing decisively with terrorists is our mandate," the statement said. Iranian authorities, who have blamed Amini's death on pre-existing medical conditions, say the unrest has been fomented by foreign adversaries and accuse armed separatists of perpetrating violence.
'DISTURBING NEWS'
Prominent Sunni cleric Molavi Abdolhamid, a powerful dissenting voice in the Shi'ite-ruled Islamic Republic, called on security forces to refrain from shooting at people in Mahabad. "Disturbing news is emerging from the Kurdish areas, especially from Mahabad ... pressure and crackdown will lead to further dissatisfaction," Abdolhamid tweeted. Hengaw said at least four protesters were killed in the Kurdish area. The widely-followed activist account 1500Tasvir said a 16-year-old student and a school teacher were killed in the Kurdish city of Javanrud. The details could not be independently confirmed. Iran's state media said calm had been restored in the area. But activists and Hengaw said on Twitter that "the resistance" continued in several Kurdish cities. "In (the Kurdish city of) Marivan repressive forces have opened fire at people," Hengaw said.The uprising has turned into a popular revolt by furious Iranians from all layers of society, posing one of the boldest challenges to the clerical leaders since the 1979 Islamic revolution that swept them to power. Ehsan Hajsafi, a footballer who normally plays in Athens, became on Sunday the first member of Iran's national team to speak out from the World Cup in Doha in apparent support of the protests at home. Other players have kept silent, and some activists have called for protests against the team. Protests have stretched into a third month despite violent state clampdown and death sentences issued for at least six protesters. HRANA said 410 protesters had been killed in the unrest as of Saturday, including 58 minors. Some 54 members of the security forces were also killed, it said, adding that more than 17,251 people have been arrested. Authorities have not provided an estimate of any wider death count. Two Iranian actresses, who had posted pictures of themselves on Instagram without the compulsory headscarf in solidarity with the protest, were arrested on Sunday for stoking protests, Iranian state media reported. Videos posted on social media showed Iranians in several other cities kept up protests, from Tehran to the northwestern city of Tabriz, calling for the toppling of the Islamic Republic and chanting "Death to (Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali) Khamenei".

Negotiating with Moscow would be capitulation, Ukraine presidency says
Agence France Presse/November 20, 2022
The West's attempts to persuade Ukraine to negotiate with Moscow, after a series of major military victories by Kyiv, are "bizarre" and amount to asking for its capitulation, a key adviser to the Ukrainian presidency told AFP. "When you have the initiative on the battlefield, it's slightly bizarre to receive proposals like: 'you will not be able to do everything by military means anyway, you need to negotiate," said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's adviser Mykhaylo Podolyak. This would mean that the country "that recovers its territories, must capitulate to the country that is losing," he added, during an interview with AFP at his office in the presidency building in Kyiv. U.S. media recently reported that some senior officials were beginning to encourage Ukraine to consider talks, which Zelensky has so far rejected without a prior withdrawal of Russian forces from all Ukrainian territory. "There has to be a mutual recognition that military victory is probably in the true sense of the word maybe not achievable through military means," top U.S. General Mark Milley said earlier this month, estimating that there is "a window of opportunity for negotiation."According to Podolyak, Moscow has not made "any direct proposal" to Kyiv for peace talks, preferring to transmit them through intermediaries and even raising the possibility of a ceasefire.
- Negotiating 'makes no sense' -
Kyiv sees such talk as mere maneuvering by the Kremlin to win some respite on the ground and prepare a new offensive.
"Russia doesn't want negotiations. Russia is conducting a communication campaign called 'negotiations'," the Ukraine presidential adviser said. "It will simply stall for time. In the meantime, it will train its mobilized forces, find additional weapons" and fortify its positions," he warned. Despite Russia's heavy military defeats in recent weeks, including Ukraine retaking the key southern city of Kherson, President Vladimir Putin still thinks "he can destroy Ukraine, this is his obsession" and negotiating with him "makes no sense," Podolyak argued. He denied the West was trying to pressure Ukraine into negotiating. "Our partners still think that it is possible to return to the pre-war era when Russia is a reliable partner". Following massive Russian withdrawals from the Kyiv region in March, then from the Kharkiv region in the northeast in September, the liberation of Kherson this month marked a "fundamental" turning point in the conflict, according to Podolyak. Spurred on by its string of military victories, Ukraine can "afford no pause" in its counter-offensive, despite the arrival of winter cold and snow that make the situation on the ground more difficult. "Today, even a little pause just adds to the losses suffered by Ukraine," said the official.
- Longer range missiles -
Moscow has been shelling the country's energy infrastructure for weeks, plunging millions of homes into darkness. The regions of Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine and Lugansk in the east are now the "key directions" for the army, Podolyak said, while refusing to speculate on the possibility of a military operation to retake the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow annexed back in 2014. Ukrainian authorities are calling for an increase in Western arms deliveries, which is "very important" in winter, he added. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak used his first visit to Kyiv on Saturday to offer a major new air defense package, including 125 anti-aircraft guns. "We still need 150 to 200 tanks, about 300 armored vehicles," a hundred artillery systems, 50-70 multiple rocket launcher systems, including the formidable American HIMARS, of which Ukraine already has several units, as well as "10 to 15 anti-aircraft defense systems to close the sky," said Podolyak. He also cited .U.S ATACMS missiles, which have a range of 300 kilometers (185 miles). The range of the weapons currently available to Ukraine barely exceeds 80 kilometers. For Podolyak, such missiles would "bring the end of the war closer" by allowing Ukraine to "destroy large Russian military depots" located deep in occupied areas which are currently inaccessible. Kyiv "doesn't need" to attack military targets inside Russia, the adviser said. "The war will end when we regain control of our borders and when Russia is afraid of Ukraine."

A Message from Ukraine by Volodymyr Zelensky, review: witty, with not a whiff of windbaggery
Colin Freeman/The Telegraph/November 20, 2022
World leaders take note: when crafting a truly inspiring speech, nothing focuses the mind like a Russian missile with your name on it. This wisdom comes courtesy of a new book of speeches by Volodymyr Zelensky, the Churchill-in-a-teeshirt whose finest hour seems never-ending.
Since Russia's invasion in February, his speeches have proved that when it comes to facing down Vladimir Putin's wrath, no-one copes with stage fright like a former stand-up. Yet as the curators of this book point out, his most effective address lasted just 32 seconds. It was day two of the invasion, and with Russian troops seeking to kill Zelensky outright, word spread that he had fled. On a walkabout through Kyiv that night, he recorded a selfie video on his I-phone, keeping it brief to stop Russian drones tracking him down. "We are all here," he said. "Our soldiers are here. Civil society is here. We defend our independence. And this is how it will always be from now on." According to the book's prologue, by Economist Russia editor Arkady Ostrovsky, those brief words were a turning point in the war. "There were rumours – spread by Russian officials – that Zelensky had left the country and that his government had collapsed," Ostrosvsky writes. "This half-minute video proved otherwise."As other speeches in this book demonstrate, though, when Zelensky first came to power in 2019, his eloquence fell on deaf ears. At his opening address to the UN General Assembly that year, he reminded delegates that 13,000 Ukrainians had already died fighting Russian-backed separatists in the Donbas.
He even brandished a bullet casing used to kill a Ukrainian reservist who had sung at the Paris national opera, saying: "It would be fatal to think that the situation in our country does not concern you."Prophetic though that warning was, the world only listened to Zelensky once it was too late. Indeed, since the war began, he has become the world's most in-demand speaker, speaking everywhere from the Commons to Congress and the Knesset to the Bundestag. Even so, he still makes a virtue of not sounding like a professional politician. Instead, Ostrovsky notes, he comes across as "an ordinary man thrust into extraordinary circumstances" - just like the Ukrainian citizens forced to take up arms to defend themselves. The book, which republishes 16 of Zelensky's key speeches, does not elaborate on how they are written. They are understood, though, to be crafted partly by Dmytro Lytvyn, a 30-something magazine columnist who works for the presidential office. While the precise words are apparently Lytvyn's, they are inspired by Zelensky's ideas and emotions.
Whoever is behind them, they demonstrate a comedian's knack for punchy one-liners. Zelensky also knows how to tailor his comments to his audience - a vital skill, given that most of his foreign broadcasts are to cajole Western governments into giving Kyiv weapons. As Europe dithers in the run-up to the war, for example, he brow-beats delegates to the Munich Security Conference. "Russia has been trying to convince Ukraine that we have chosen the wrong path, that no help is coming from Europe," he says. "Why won’t Europe prove them wrong?
Addressing the Commons in early March, however, he is flattering - noting Britain's military support thus far, while pleading for more. "Please do what the greatness of your country calls upon you to do," he asks.
He has much harsher words for the Bundestag a week later, over Germany's reluctance to arm Ukraine for fear of jeopardising Russian gas supplies. "It is as though you are behind the wall again," Zelensky says. "Not the Berlin Wall, but another wall in the middle of Europe: a wall between freedom and slavery." In April he also singles out former Chancellor Angela Merkel, inviting her to Bucha and see what "concessions to Russia have led to"
Where he feels world leaders are dragging their feet, Zelensky also tailors his message directly to their voters. In a speech to "The People of Europe", he tell them to stop being "blackmailed" with Russian gas supplies, and to pressure their governments for tougher sanctions. "How are you going to protect yourselves when you have been so slow to protect Ukraine?" he scolds. For Russians, meanwhile, there is a pithy plea to disregard Putin's propaganda. "The Ukraine in your news and the Ukraine in real life are two completely different countries," he says. "The main difference is that ours exists."These are the quotable soundbites, of course, from speeches intended to be heard in their entirety. How many end up being truly memorable, only history will decide. But having had the dubious privilege of listening to many world leaders' speeches as a Telegraph foreign correspondent, I can say one thing about this collection that I can say about very few others. Namely, that I read every single one of them without nodding off. Zelensky comes across as variously genial, witty, personable and scathing. Not once did I sense windbaggery, posturing or the moral preachiness that so many leaders adopt when striding the world stage. It is proof, perhaps, that politicians are at their best in times of real crisis. Indeed, maybe the reason we find our own leaders so uninspiring is that unlike Zelensky and Ukraine, we are lucky enough never have been tested in the same way.

All of Russia's neighbours are in danger, Latvian military chief says
The Canadian Press/RIGA, Latvia/November 20, 2022
All countries neighbouring Russia are currently in danger, according to the assessment of a senior officer from a country currently receiving military support from Canada. After a missile strike killed two people in Poland last week, a consequence of the war raging in Ukraine, Latvia is reminding the world that it, too, is exposed to the Russian threat. It shares 300 kilometres of border with Russia, which has annexed it twice in its history. This risk of being swallowed up again "cannot (be) ruled out," Col. Didzis Nestro, acting head of the Latvian army's land component, said in an interview with The Canadian Press last week. Canada is playing a leadership role in supporting this Baltic NATO member. Just over 1,200 soldiers from 10 countries, including 700 from Canada, train at Camp Adazi as a unified combat group defending Latvia. The country's own regular army counts about 6,000 members.
"It seems that all the wars that Russia has tended to wage, starting from Chechnya, are all kind of directed to regain access points (from the USSR era and tsarist Russia before that) … and to safeguard the access points to the outer world," Nestro said, speaking in a modest office in a large military complex on the outskirts of the Latvian capital of Riga. "If we go around the Russian border line, then we can see that basically all the countries bordering Russia are, in this way, endangered," said Nestro, who is also acting chief of staff for government affairs. Formerly a territory conquered by the Russian Empire, Latvia had to win its independence twice. After becoming a state following the First World War, it was annexed by the Soviet Union under Josef Stalin in 1939. Then in 1991, during the disintegration of the U.S.S.R., it again proclaimed its independence. “The risk has been diminished (of annexation), (but) we cannot rule out anything happening,” Nestro said. "That's why we as a country — and the alliance in general — have a certain sense of alertness to face any of these kind of unpredicted situations because Russia and (its President Vladimir) Putin is unpredictable." Latvia is not shy about displaying its full support for Ukraine. The Ukrainian flag is prominently displayed throughout Riga, especially on official buildings. Large murals also pay homage to Ukrainians or denounce the past destruction of the port city of Mariupol. That support remains undeterred despite a deadly incident last week in which a missile believed to have gone astray from Ukraine killed two people in a border town in Poland, a NATO ally country. "We are now carefully estimating the situation and then we will draw the conclusions," Nestro said. "But one thing is clear, this is just a consequence of Russian aggression in Ukraine, so that's what we see now."
Nestro said some of the pressure on border countries has eased since the war got underway in February, noting Russia has had to deploy many of its military resources on the Ukrainian front. Still, he said, both Russian resources and active threats remain.
There are Russian bases near the Latvian border, some as close as 30 kilometres away, he noted. Russia also has an airborne division in Pskov, helicopters very close to the border, as well as a motorized infantry brigade and special forces, he said. The senior Latvian official also said air and sea units on the Baltic still have strike capabilities. The incident in Poland raises questions about whether something similar could play out in Latvia. "It is the collective defence — it is all NATO countries together," Nestro said. "And there's certain systems which are reading the ... indications and warnings for various threats, including the air defence or air attack threat."But Latvia's air defence system has a short range -- five to six kilometres -- and another system provided by Spain is also limited, Nestro said. All the same, Putin “has to think twice before attacking a NATO country," Nestro said. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty stipulates that if a member state is the victim of an armed attack, the other members consider themselves also attacked and retaliate.

Russia’s Shivulech Volcano Extremely Active, Threatens Eruption, Warn Scientists
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 20 November, 2022
The Shiveluch volcano on the Kamchatka Peninsula in the Russian Far East has become extremely active, threatening a powerful eruption, the Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team said on Sunday. "A growth of the lava dome continues, a strong fumaroles activity, an incandescence of the lava dome, explosions, and hot avalanches accompanies this process," the observatory said on its website. "Ash explosions up to 10-15 kilometers (9.32 miles) ... could occur at any time. Ongoing activity could affect international and low-flying aircraft." Russia's state RIA news agency cited Alexei Ozerov, the director of the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology of the Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, as saying that the dome of the volcano is very hot. "At night, the dome glows almost over its entire surface. Hot avalanches with a temperature of 1000 degrees Celsius (1,832F) roll down the slopes, pyroclastic flows descend. This state of the dome is observed, as a rule, before a powerful paroxysmal eruption." Shiveluch, one of Kamchatka's largest volcanoes with a summit reaching 3,283 meters (10,771 feet) is also one of the peninsula's most active ones, with an estimated 60 substantial eruptions in the past 10,000 years. The volcano last most powerful eruption took place in 2007, according to NASA.

Renewed Shelling Threatens Key Ukrainian Nuclear Plant
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 20 November, 2022
Powerful explosions from shelling shook Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region, the site of Europe's largest nuclear power plant, the global nuclear watchdog said Sunday, calling for "urgent measures to help prevent a nuclear accident" in the Russian-occupied facility.  Rafael Mariano Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said multiple explosions near the plant — on Saturday evening and again on Sunday morning — abruptly ended a period of relative calm around the nuclear facility that has been the site of fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces since Russia invaded on Feb. 24. The fighting has raised the specter of a nuclear catastrophe ever since Russian troops occupied the plant during the early days of the war. In renewed shelling both close to and at the site, IAEA experts at the Zaporizhzhia facility reported hearing more than a dozen blasts within a short period Sunday morning and could see some explosions from their windows, the agency said. Several buildings, systems and equipment at the power plant — none critical for the plant's nuclear safety — were damaged, the IAEA said, citing plant management. Still, Grossi called reports of the shelling "extremely disturbing," and appealed to both sides to urgently implement a nuclear safety and security zone around the facility. "Whoever is behind this, it must stop immediately," he said. "As I have said many times before, you’re playing with fire!" Russia has been pounding Ukraine’s power grid and other infrastructure from the air, causing widespread blackouts for millions of Ukrainians amid frigid weather. That has left Ukrainians without heat, power or water as snow blankets the capital, Kyiv, and other cities. Ukraine’s state nuclear power operator said Russian forces were behind the shelling of the Zaporizhzhia plant. Energoatom said Sunday that the targeted equipment there was consistent with the Kremlin’s intent "to damage or destroy as much of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as possible" as winter sets in. The weekend strikes damaged the system that would enable power units 5 and 6 to start producing electricity again for Ukraine, the power operator said. It listed chemical desalinated water storage tanks and a steam generator purge system as being damaged Sunday, although the full extent of the damage was still being assessed. The State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine decided to bring the two units to a minimally controlled power level to obtain steam, which is critical in winter for ensuring the safety of the plant and surrounding areas, Energoatom said.
Moscow, however, blamed Ukrainian forces. Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov accused the Ukrainians of shelling the power plant twice on Sunday. He also said two shells hit near power lines supplying the plant with electricity. Elsewhere in the Zaporizhzhia region, Russian forces shelled civilian infrastructure in about a dozen communities, destroying 30 homes, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office said Sunday. Twenty buildings were damaged in shelling at Nikopol, a city across the river from the Zaporizhzhia plant, the report said.  Three districts in the northern Kharkiv region — Kupyansk, Chuguiv and Izyum — also came under Russian artillery fire. And in the eastern Luhansk and Donetsk regions, Russian shelling killed one person in Donetsk and damaged power lines, it said. The situation in the southern Kherson region "remains difficult," the president's office said, citing Ukraine's armed forces. Russian forces fired tank shells, rockets and other artillery on the city of Kherson and several nearby settlements that were recently liberated by Ukrainian forces. Shelling late Saturday struck an oil depot in Kherson, igniting a huge fire that sent billowing smoke into the air. Russian troops also shelled people lining up to get bread in Bilozerka, a town in the Kherson region, wounding five, the report said. In the city of Kherson — which still has little power, heat or water — more than 80 tons of humanitarian aid have been sent, said local administrator Yaroslav Yanushevych, including a UNICEF shipment of 1,500 winter outfits for children, two 35-40-kilowatt generators and drinking water. Also on Sunday, a funeral was held in eastern Poland for the second of two men killed in a missile explosion Tuesday. The other man was buried Saturday. Poland and the head of NATO have both said the missile strike appeared to be unintentional, and was probably launched by Ukraine as it tried to shoot down Russia missiles or drones.

Turkish air raids in Syria kill regime troops and Kurdish forces
Agence France Presse/Sunday, 20 November, 2022
Turkish air strikes hit several towns across northern Syria, including the city of Kobane, late Saturday, said Kurdish-led forces there and a Britain-based monitoring group. The Turkish raids killed at least six members of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and six pro-regime soldiers, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitor said. The attacks come just days after Ankara blamed the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) for a deadly bombing in central Istanbul last week. "The hour of reckoning has come," the Turkish defense ministry tweeted early Sunday, along with a photo of a plane taking off for a night operation, without specifying the location. "The bastards will have to be held accountable for their treacherous attacks," it said. "Terrorist hotbeds razed by precision strikes," the ministry said in another post, which was accompanied by a video showing a target being selected followed by an explosion. While Ankara did not give details of the operation, Kurdish forces said Kobane in northeast Syria had been hit by Turkish raids. "#Kobane, the city that defeated ISIS, is subjected to bombardment by the aircraft of the Turkish occupation," tweeted Farhad Shami, a spokesman for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Turkey considers the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) -- the main component of the SDF -- an extension of the outlawed PKK. "Turkish bombing of our safe areas threatens the whole region," Mazloum Abdi, the chief commander of the U.S.-allied SDF, tweeted. The Turkish bombardments targeted SDF sites in the northern province of Aleppo and Hassakeh in the northeast, Rami Abdel Rahman, director of Syrian Observatory NGO, told AFP. SDF spokesman Shami also said there had been air strikes on two densely-populated villages in those areas.The raids also targeted positions where Syrian regime forces are deployed in the governorates of Raqqa and Hassakeh, killing six SDF members and six members of regime forces, said the Syrian Observatory. The NGO reported that the Turkish military had carried out more than 20 air strikes across the two provinces. The group has an extensive network of contacts across Syria. Kobane, a Kurdish-majority town in Syria near the Turkish border was captured by the self-styled Islamic State group in late 2014, before Kurdish fighters drove them out early the following year. Both the PKK and the YPG have denied any involvement in the Istanbul attack, in which six people were killed. But Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu has said Ankara believes the order for the attack was given from Kobane, controlled by Syrian Kurdish militia forces in northern Syria.

Türkiye Strikes in Syria, Iraq a Week after Istanbul Bombing
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 20 November, 2022
Türkiye launched deadly airstrikes over northern regions of Syria and Iraq, the Turkish Defense Ministry said Sunday, targeting Kurdish groups that Ankara holds responsible for last week’s bomb attack in Istanbul. Warplanes attacked bases of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, and the Syrian People’s Protection Units, or YPG, the ministry said in a statement, which was accompanied by images of F-16 jets taking off and footage of a strike from an aerial drone. The ministry cited Türkiye’s right to self-defense under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter in launching an operation it called Claw-Sword late Saturday. It said it was targeting areas “used as a base by terrorists in their attacks on our country.” Syrian Kurdish officials have alleged civilian deaths from the air attacks. The airstrikes came after a bomb rocked a bustling avenue in the heart of Istanbul on Nov. 13, killing six people and wounding over 80 others. Turkish authorities blamed the attack on the PKK and its Syrian affiliate the YPG. The Kurdish militant groups have, however, denied involvement. Ankara and Washington both consider the PKK a terror group, but disagree on the status of the YPG. Under the banner of the Syrian Democratic Forces, the YPG has been allied with the US in the fight against the ISIS group in Syria. The PKK has fought an armed insurgency in Türkiye since 1984. The conflict has killed tens of thousands of people since then. Following the strikes, the Defense Ministry posted a photo of an F-16 fighter plane with the phrase, “Payback time! The scoundrels are being held to account for their treacherous attacks.” The DHA news agency reported that F-16s took off from airfields in Malatya and Diyarbakir in southern Türkiye while drones were launched from Batman. The ministry claimed that a total of 89 targets were destroyed and a “large number” of what it designated "terrorists” were killed in strikes that ranged from Tal Rifat in northwest Syria to the Qandil mountains in Iraq’s northeast. Defense Minister Hulusi Akar oversaw the airstrikes from an operations center and congratulated pilots and ground staff. “Our aim is to ensure the security of our 85 million citizens and our borders and to retaliate for any treacherous attack on our country,” he said, according to a ministry statement. Akar claimed that a wide range of targets “were destroyed with great success," including what he described as the “the so-called headquarters of the terrorist organization,” without giving further details. Other Turkish officials responded to the attacks. Presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin tweeted a photograph of the Turkish flag with the comment “Payback time for Istiklal” — a reference to the street where last week’s bombing happened.
The airstrikes targeted Kobani, a strategic Kurdish-majority Syrian town near the Turkish border that Ankara had previously attempted to take in its plans to establish a “safe zone” along northern Syria. SDF spokesperson Farhad Shami in a tweet said that two villages heavily populated with displaced people were under Turkish bombardment. He said the strikes had resulted in 11 civilian deaths and destroyed a hospital, a power plant and grain silos. In the Syrian town of Derik, which lies where the borders of Syria, Iraq and Türkiye meet, The Associated Press found a burnt out petrol station with destroyed buildings nearby. “There were Turkish airstrikes here, approximately five strikes,” said Abdulgafar Ali, an employee at the petrol station. “The bombardment caused mass destruction. It shut down the station completely and resulted in the killing and injuring of innocent civilians, who committed no sin.” The Women’s Protection Units, or YPJ, which is linked to the YPG, said the airstrikes targeted areas along the Türkiye-Syria border including Kobani, Derbasiyeh and Ein Issa. “The airstrikes are random that target the people,” the YPJ media office said in written response to The Associated Press. “The people who fought the ISIS terrorist organization are now under attack by Turkish warplanes,” it said. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor, reported that the strikes had also hit Syrian army positions and that at least 12 had been killed, including SDF and Syrian soldiers. The observatory said about 25 airstrikes were carried out by Turkish warplanes on sites in the countryside of Aleppo, Raqqa and Hasakah. The Syrian Defense Ministry said “several” Syrian soldiers were killed in the northern Aleppo countryside and Hasakah province. Syrian state media had previously reported three soldiers killed. In neighboring Iraq, officials of the Kurdistan Regional Government said at least 32 PKK militants had been killed in 25 air raids. The Kurdish-led authority in northeast Syria said Saturday that if Türkiye attacks, then fighters in the area would have “the right to resist and defend our areas in a major way that will take the region into a long war.” SDF commander Mazloum Abdi called on people to remain at home and abide by security forces’ instructions. “We are making every effort to avoid a major catastrophe. If war erupts, all will be affected,” he tweeted.
An SDF statement later said the attacks “will not remain unanswered. At the appropriate time and place, we will respond in a strong and effective manner.” Türkiye’s state-run Anadolu news agency reported that a Turkish soldier and two police officers were later wounded in a rocket attack on the Oncupinar border gate with Syria. It emerged that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gave the order for the airstrikes as he was returning from the G20 meeting of world leaders in Indonesia on Thursday. The president’s office released images of Erdogan being briefed on his plane by Akar. Later on Sunday Erdogan, accompanied by a clutch of officials including Akar, left Türkiye for the World Cup opening ceremony in Qatar. Türkiye has invaded northern Syria three times since 2016 and already controls some territories in the north. Earlier this year, Erdogan threatened another military operation in the border area. Turkish forces launched a fresh ground and air operation, dubbed Claw-Lock, against the PKK in northern Iraq in April.

US deploys bombers in response to North Korea missile tests
Sky News/November 19, 2022
The US deployed supersonic bombers and fighter jets in response to recent missile tests carried out by North Korea. The B-1B bombers conducted joint aerial drills on Saturday with other South Korean and US warplanes, according to South Korea's joint chiefs of staff. It said the drills demonstrated an "iron-clad" US security commitment to South Korea and the allies' combined defence posture. North Korea drew widespread international condemnation on Friday after it test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads and with a range that could reach anywhere on the US mainland. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un watched the test with his daughter - the first time she had been seen in public - and boasted the ICBM was a "reliable and maximum-capacity" weapon to contain US military threats. State media photos showed Mr Kim walking hand in hand with the girl, and together watching a huge missile loaded on a launch truck. Friday's launch was part of the North's ongoing barrage of missile tests that are seen as an attempt to expand its weapons arsenal. 'All-out confrontation' Some foreign experts said the Hwasong-17 missile is still under development, but is the North's longest-range ballistic weapon designed to carry multiple nuclear warheads to defeat US missile defence systems. The North's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said the missile fired from Pyongyang International Airport travelled up to a maximum altitude of about 6,040km (3,750 miles) and flew a distance of about 1,000km (620 miles) before it landed in international waters off the country's east coast. "The test-fire clearly proved the reliability of the new major strategic weapon system to be representative of (North Korea's) strategic forces and its powerful combat performance as the strongest strategic weapon in the world," KCNA said. "Kim Jong Un solemnly declared that if the enemies continue to pose threats to [North Korea], frequently introducing nuclear strike means, our party and government will resolutely react to nukes with nuclear weapons and to total confrontation with all-out confrontation," KCNA said. Mr Kim's statement suggests North Korea will continue its weapons testing activities as the US continues to bolster its security commitment to its allies South Korea and Japan. There are concerns that, in coming weeks, North Korea could conduct its first nuclear test for five years.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 20-21/2022
Is Multiculturalism Destroying Western National Identities?
Giulio Meotti/Gatestone Institute/November 20, 2022
Today, 90% of British demographic growth comes from immigration.
The same shift is taking place in Sweden. In 2015 alone, Sweden welcomed 163,000 immigrants, the equivalent of 1.65% of its total population. Combined with other years, it is a demographic revolution: As of 2015, approximately 17% of the population were foreign-born.
"Therefore, there has been a huge cultural change in the immigrant population, as its largest group has gone from being Finnish to being Muslim... with immigration unchanged, ethnic Swedes will be a minority in 2065." — Kyösti Tarvainen, professor at the Aalto University of Helsinki, Folkbladet, April 13, 2021.
That is why Swedish people recently voted in a conservative government. It is their last chance to stop an unprecedented national self-destruction.
"Brussels is no longer Belgium.... There are more Brussels residents of Moroccan origin than Flemings or Walloons". — Philippe Van Parijs, Belgian academic and economist, De Standaard, September 5, 2022.
A country facing demographic suicide (1,707 kindergartens in Italy closed down in the last ten years) cannot afford to be overwhelmed by mass immigration without losing its national identity.
The West is at stake. The choice Europeans urgently need to make is whether they would like to transform their countries into a wholly different culture -- as the people who inhabited Turkey did after center of Christendom fell to the Ottoman Empire, or as Egypt did from being the land of the Christian Copts to that of a state where the Copts now face non-stop persecution.
Unfortunately, Europe, whether it likes it or not, has virtually no time left to decide whether or not it wishes to continue embracing open borders, multiculturalism and globalism, and, through passivity, find that its hard-won Judeo-Christian values, freedoms and identity will be quickly made extinct.
A country facing demographic suicide (1,707 kindergartens in Italy closed down in the last ten years) cannot afford to be overwhelmed by mass immigration without losing its national identity. That is why the new Italian government just returned to blocking ships carrying illegal migrants.
Twenty years ago, the United Nations published a document titled "Replacement Migration: Is it A Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations?". It was not a right-wing conspiracy theory, but a sophisticated working plan for Western democracies dealing with demographic aging. It has since gone mainstream. Just read what Richard Thaler, a Nobel laureate in economics, said this week: "We need more immigrants to pay pensions".
A recent article by Elsa Fornero, former Italian Minister of Labor, also explains the mentality of those who govern Europe and how they prepare the demise of its civilization:
"If the Italian population 'disappeared', we need not worry, because there will likely be someone ready to take its place; just look at the other side of the Mediterranean, where countries with highly dynamic populations and an age structure very different from ours, with many infants, children and young people and relatively few elderly people, appear. By accepting demographic decline as a social paradigm, by adapting to a society not only with fewer schools, uninhabited villages, abandoned houses and less mobility but also fewer cinemas, theaters, tourism and sports facilities, we are implicitly telling them that our land it is already theirs".Western elites openly treat immigration as a mere economic resource to support welfare systems that would otherwise be bankrupt. They also forbid any discussion of the impact that these immigration numbers are having on the culture, customs and identity of a society. The very concept of "identity" is viewed with suspicion and branded as a "racist" fantasy. Canada, (pop. 40 million) is now setting record goals in immigration history, with a plan to bring in 1.45 million more legal immigrants by 2025. The New York Times explains that in the two largest cities, Toronto and Vancouver, 60% of the population in just ten years could be composed of ethnic minorities. Multiculturalism is becoming a key tool in the dissolution of national identities and the label of "populism" serves to exorcise a rational reaction to the great fears that have besieged Western societies for several decades: the fear of people facing massive, unregulated immigration; the fear that Western culture will dissolve into a blob of relativism and parallel societies (even The Economist denounced it); the fear of countries without external borders or internal moral legitimacy. It is the fear of a cultural disintegration that has been insidiously validating the probability the sociological majority disappearing and, ultimately, society itself. New official British figures reveal that 10 million people (1 in 6) in England and Wales were born abroad; an increase of 2.5 million since 2011 despite government pledges to attempt to limit immigration.
Today, 90% of Britain's demographic growth comes from immigration.
The same shift is taking place in Sweden. In 2015 alone, Sweden welcomed 163,000 immigrants, the equivalent of 1.65% of its total population. Combined with other years, it is a demographic revolution: As of 2015, approximately 17% of the population were foreign-born.
"The Swedish Parliament unanimously decided in 1975 that Sweden is a multicultural country", wrote Kyösti Tarvainen, a professor at the Aalto University of Helsinki.
"At that time, more than 40 percent of the immigrants were my compatriots, Finns. The situation has changed: in 2019, 88 percent of net immigrants were non-Western and 52 percent were Muslims. Therefore, there has been a huge cultural change in the immigrant population, as its largest group has gone from being Finnish to being Muslim... with immigration unchanged, ethnic Swedes will be a minority in 2065."
Demographic change in a European country that has allowed itself to be submerged by non-European immigrants is rapid, often extremely rapid. As the French demographer Michèle Tribalat explained:
"Malmö had 328,000 inhabitants on December 31, 2016; Lessebo had nearly 8,800 on the same date. Lessebo is a town 230 kilometers northeast of Malmö. In 2002, 48 percent of children born that year in Malmö were born abroad or in Sweden to at least one parent born abroad, compared with 12 percent in Lessebo. In 2016, the percentage was 58 percent in Malmö and 57 percent in Lessebo".
The old Lessebo no longer exists.
Tino Sanandaji, a Swedish economist of Kurdish-Iranian origin who wrote Mass Challenge, a bestseller on how Sweden is imploding due to multiculturalism, noted that "Contrary to what some ideological historians would have us believe, Sweden has never been a country of immigration."
"Sweden has long been a homogeneous country and it is only in recent decades that it has begun to welcome a large number of non-European refugees. Until 1985, Sweden had very few non-Western migrants, only 2 percent of the population, because the Social Democrats, in power before 1968, were a fairly conservative party on these issues. But Swedish politics became more radical and in the second half of the 1980s the government began welcoming large numbers of migrants. In the period 1985-2015, asylum immigration in Sweden was about four times higher per capita than in other Western European countries, so that the share of the population of non-Western origin increased from 2 percent to 20 percent of the total population. Governments then believed that Sweden's social protection system would avoid the problems already observed in France and other European countries. The facts proved them wrong, but it took a long time to admit it".
That is why Swedish people recently voted in a conservative government. It is their last chance to stop this unprecedented national self-destruction.
In France now, nearly a third -- 29.6% -- of the population aged 0 to 4 is of non-European origin compared to 17.1% aged 18 to 24, 18.8% aged 40 to 44, 7.6% aged 60-64, and 3.1% over 80. This was recently revealed by Insee, according to the French National Statistics Institute, which examined the last three generations. 16.2% of all children between the ages of 0 and 4 in France are children or grandchildren of Maghrebi origin; 7.3% are from the rest of Africa and 4% are from Asia.
French President Emmanuel Macron just called it "demographic transition", a euphemism for a cultural replacement. In Callac, a small, quiet town with 2,200 inhabitants in central Brittany, the authorities want to settle immigrants to fight "desertification," noted Le Figaro. The aim of the municipality and a philanthropic foundation in Callac, to repopulate a small "aging" town with migrants, revitalize the town center and develop economic activities. The Callac model reportedly inspired the asylum bill announced by Macron for 2023: distribution of foreigners in "rural areas".
Former Belgian Senator Alain Destexhe, in his book, Immigration et Intégration: avant qu'il ne soit trop tard ("Immigration and Integration, Before It Is Not Too Late"), reports that between 2000 to 2010, Belgium welcomed more than 1 million immigrants into a population of 11 million. On September 5, the Belgian academic and economist Philippe Van Parijs, remarked to the newspaper De Standaard that "Brussels is no longer Belgium". Van Parijs conducted a demographic study, and his discoveries will surprise only those who want to remain blind. In ten years, the percentage of Brussels residents whose parents both have Belgian citizenship, has decreased from just 36% to 26%.
"[N]o fewer than three quarters of the inhabitants of Brussels are of immigrant origin. There are more Brussels residents of Moroccan origin than Flemings or Walloons".
This historic transformation was foreseen by Boutros Boutros-Ghali, the former UN secretary general, who in 2007 outlined this vision of the future of Europe:
"The unprecedented collapse of the population of Europe and its accelerated aging contrast with the still very rapid population increase in the southern and eastern Mediterranean. This will result in very acute imbalances! From a strictly quantitative point of view, immigration would be a solution. But we cannot treat the question as a problem of communicating vessels. Immigration without precaution risks imploding Western societies at the cost of very serious problems (culture shock, neo-colonial structures, unemployment, etc.)".
That is why the new Italian government just returned to blocking ships carrying illegal migrants. A country facing demographic suicide (1,707 kindergartens closed down in the last ten years) cannot afford to be overwhelmed by mass immigration without losing its national identity.
The West is at stake. The choice Europeans urgently need to make is whether they would like to transform their countries into a wholly different culture -- as the people who inhabited Turkey did after center of Christendom fell to the Ottoman Empire, or as Egypt did from being the land of the Christian Copts to that of a state where the Copts now face non-stop persecution (here, here and here).
Unfortunately, Europe, whether it likes it or not, has virtually no time left to decide whether or not it wishes to continue embracing open borders, multiculturalism and globalism, and, through passivity, find that its hard-won Judeo-Christian values, freedoms and identity will be quickly made extinct.
*Giulio Meotti, Cultural Editor for Il Foglio, is an Italian journalist and author.
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The Danger of Unconstrained Wars and Unpredictable Escalations
Raghida Dergham/November 20, 2022
There was a moment of panic this week when unidentified missiles hit inside the territory of NATO member Poland. The president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said they were Russian missiles, but he was challenged by US President Joe Biden and NATO leaders who affirmed that the evidence indicated they were Ukrainian anti-air defence missiles intercepting Russian bombardment of Ukraine. The Western prudence was not the result of a change in attitude vis-à-vis Russian President Vladimir Putin and his war in Ukraine but reflected automatic caution against slipping into a third world war triggered by the possible involvement of a NATO member in a war against Russia in Ukraine.
In truth, Poland slipping into the Ukraine war is an accident waiting to happen, or in the future could be an intended accident unless the war between Russia and the West in Ukraine is contained or ended. A cold winter is coming, the Russian intense bombardment campaign is ongoing, and the risk of nuclear war stands and could in turn be the result of an accident. Therefore, this week’s panicked episode may be a useful opportunity for leaders to catch their breath and think profoundly of measures to step up coordination between allies as well as consider the raft of options available to them in light of developments on the battlefield. General Mark Milley, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, again appealed to Kyiv to use its military advantage to launch peace talks with Russia that could now favour it. Milley’s view is that completely dislodging Russian forces from Ukraine will not be an easily attainable goal for Zelensky given Putin and the Russian military’s determination to maintain control of Crimea. President Biden himself was somewhat upset this week by President Zelensky’s conduct. To some, the Ukrainian president had rushed by accusing Russia of striking Poland with missiles during the G20 summit in Bali – including the G7 group who are NATO member states – to mobilize more support for his country. The optics surrounding the public dispute in determining what had happened were not reassuring. Washington even sought the help of NATO capitals to rein in Zelensky, who initially persisted in his claims until he backed down after pressure from intelligence services, which confirmed the missiles had not been fired by Russia.
The Kremlin, in its own way, was grateful to the White House and praised the wisdom of President Biden, signalling it was ready for negotiations to end the war, even if just to test the waters. The US president and US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan had previously said it was up to Ukraine to decide whether it was ready for negotiations. This message, however, contains between its lines an appeal to Zelensky to negotiate instead of continuing a war that could escalate into a global cataclysm. Washington realizes at the same time that the Kremlin will not accept negotiations that would reverse Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territories, and is aware that Putin sees peace talks as a defeat he would simply not accept.
All this means that the worst is yet to come for Russia and Ukraine. There are no guarantees that a war between Russia and NATO erupting as a result of a calculated error or a staged accident, or a real one, can be contained. The Russian president will not willingly relinquish the Ukrainian territories he has annexed or those he plans to conquer. For his part, the Ukrainian president faces popular opposition against surrendering Ukrainian territories as part of a negotiated settlement with Russia. Therefore, there is nothing on the horizon now that suggests the war in Ukraine could be contained and prevented from expanding into a larger, even world war.
However, interesting ideas are being exchanged behind the scenes in the capitals concerned, following the crisis in Poland and the possibility of a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. These ideas, as a starting point, distinguish between a ceasefire and a peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine. Indeed, a peace treaty requires making a deal on the disputed territories, which is impossible not only because of the circumstances of Putin and Zelensky, but also because the constitutions of Russia and Ukraine do not allow ceding territory.
“This is a conflict between two constitutions”, as an expert on Russia and Ukraine put it, “not between two presidents”. Consequently, Putin and Zelensky cannot negotiate a peace that would require them to cede territory. Therefore, “instead of talking about negotiations over an impossible peace agreement, efforts must be made towards negotiations and agreement on security principles and guarantees for the two countries and finding creative formulas that bypass the issue of territories”, added the source who is familiar with what is taking place behind the scenes.
What is happening behind the scenes includes exploring gradual steps that could lead to negotiations – not between Putin and Zelensky but at a lower level – that may be able to reconcile an affirmation of the Ukrainian de jure ownership of the territories while acknowledging they are under Russian administration.
An informed source pointed out what he termed a “Western idea” pushed for by Germany and France for a Christmas ceasefire between 20 December and 15 January. The idea in principle has implicit Ukrainian approval despite the public insistence on the ten points put forward to the G20 summit by President Zelensky as a roadmap for negotiations.
Some in Ukraine are encouraging the leadership to accept a ceasefire, because of the huge devastation resulting from the Russian war on Ukraine. Kyiv expects up to 50 percent of the country’s infrastructure will be destroyed if the Russian bombardment continues at its current pace.
On the other hand, accepting a ceasefire is very difficult for Putin, especially as some in the military would see this as a repetition of the Minsk agreement. Subsequently, accepting a ceasefire would be a quintessentially political decision by the Russian president, one that would be against the will of the Russian military. Some world powers oppose NATO’s push to drive Russia out of Europe, inflict a crushing defeat on Moscow, and remove Putin from power. The positions of the major powers were clear at the Bali summit, which avoided political confrontations: China, India, and Indonesia have reservations on NATO’s conduct, and could have well seen Zelensky’s positions as a form of existential recklessness.
The war in Ukraine imposed itself on the G20 summit triggered by the crisis in Poland and nuclear concerns. But the bilateral summit between the US president and Chinese President Xi Jinping saw a consensus on sending a shared message to the Russian president declaring that nuclear threats are unacceptable to both sides. Careful navigation to avoid confrontation was a clear feature of the US-Chinese summit. The two leaders clung to their traditional, divergent positions on several issues, from Taiwan to the economy to their rivalry on strategic dominance. But they both avoided using a tone of escalation, defiance, and obstruction. Biden spoke the language of managing the rivalry and avoiding conflict. While there were differences in their views and stances, Biden affirmed he did not believe the United States and China were in a new cold war.
The first meeting between the two men as presidents succeeded in signalling a readiness for dialogue to resolve differences. From this standpoint, the summit was reassuring. It was also expedient for President Biden, who underscored the wisdom in managing rivalry and avoiding conflict with China.
The Bali summit was an overall success for the US president, who emerged as a serious, composed leader handling a major crisis. He did not make any hasty decisions on the issue of the missiles in Poland, which could have changed the entire equation in the indirect war between Russia and NATO. He did not try to outmanoeuvre his Chinese counterpart, instead pursuing a firm but flexible tone.
Biden may have thus passed important foreign policy tests in handling the Chinese president, NATO leaders, and the G7 group, acting rationally on the Poland crisis as the leader of the world’s preeminent superpower.
By contrast, former President Donald Trump is fighting a domestic battle imposed on him by the unfavourable outcome of the midterm elections that revealed a structural weakness that could radically impact his presidential ambitions. Trump’s announcement did not tackle foreign policy except by criticising the Biden administration’s conduct during the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Trump linked the restoration of American ‘greatness’ to him returning to the White House, but he did not put forward a program for global leadership as had been anticipated.
The midterm elections ended up thinning out extremists from both the Democratic and Republican camps. The message from American voters was that they need a lot of reason, pragmatism, and wisdom. This is a very difficult period of global economic slowdown triggered by the ongoing war in Ukraine and its impact on global geopolitics. The world is in a state of anxiety. Last week’s developments rekindled terror of a third world war that almost erupted out of Poland. Containing the fear is necessary but what must not be ignored is that the missile incident in Poland was not a fleeting event. It is a serious indication of what could happen in the future, accidentally or otherwise. It is crucial to manage crises but that is no alternative to a strategic resolution of unconstrained wars and unpredictable escalations.

Iran… Rage and Confusion
Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/November, 20/2022
As Iran’s protests enter their fifth week, they are taking an unprecedented course. The house of the man who led the revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini, has been burned, and protests have broken out in most of the country’s cities and villages. This includes Khomeyn, Khomeini’s hometown. We have also seen the phenomenon of knocking turbans off of clerics’ heads become widespread.
Despite the violence that the regime has inflicted on the protests, it is clearly in a tight spot. This analysis is built on solid facts. Two are the most notable. First, the head of the IRGC, late last month, threatened that the protesters would not be on the streets another day, but the protests have spread to new areas. Second, we have the speech the Iranian Supreme Leader gave to “a crowd of Asphahanis.” Broadcast in three different forms, on the supreme leader’s website, Fars New Agency, and Irana, the speech made the Supreme Leader seem confused and defensive.
“Some inside Iran are promoting Western propaganda, saying that the Islamic system has little freedom and allows the people little sovereignty, but the mere fact that they are saying this is an indication of freedom,” Khamenei said. This is ridiculous enough, but he then adds that “the forces behind these acts of vandalism failed to drag the Iranian people to the street. They are now seeking to take more of these actions to pressure the authorities, but they will end.” He contradicts himself in the next sentence! Khamenei then talks about the importance of “hope.” “That is why the enemy seeks to spread hopelessness among the people… we still have hope and vigor in our society.” This means that the Supreme Leader acknowledges that the people have lost hope. Why else would he mention it and recognize that the economic problems are “real.”
Most importantly, he said that “we must punish the perpetrators of crimes and murder, as well as those who have spread destruction and threats, setting fire to stores, cars, and people. Those who forced them to perpetrate these actions must also be punished for their sins and the crimes they committed.”
In another framework, Khamenei was quoted as saying: “Those who have been fooled should be educated. However, criminals should be punished, and no one has a right to punish them without due process. This contradicts the demands of the hardline deputies that demanded protesters be dealt with violently. Khamenei’s statements are noticeably different from those he made in 2019. At the time, Reuters wrote: “After days of protests across Iran last month, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared impatient. Gathering his top security and government officials together, he issued an order: Do whatever it takes to stop them.” Today, things seem different.
This is not to say that the regime has not perpetrated crimes but that the regime has failed to disrupt the protests, which the French president has rightly called a “revolution.” It is to say that the statements of the Supreme Leader and head of the IRGC demonstrate that they are confused, unable to act, and afraid of something. An expert recently told me that towards the end of his reign, the Shah “was reluctant to deploy the armed forces to avoid giving them the upper hand once his son took power. Today, Khamenei is afraid that armed forces could dominate the reign of his son Mojtaba, whom he hopes will succeed him.” I think the same applies to Ebrahim Raisi, who aspires to succeed the Supreme Leader. In short, what is happening in Iran indicates that as the people rage, the regime stands perplexed.

The Iranian regime’s unsolvable crisis
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/November 20/2022
The Iranian regime has been attempting to downplay the crisis it faces domestically in order to project power and paint a picture of itself ruling via a formidable, sustainable, legitimate and popular government.
For example, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has called the ongoing nationwide uprising as “scattered riots” designed “by the enemy” and he described the protesters as “thugs, robbers and extortionists.” He explained in a recent speech: “These scattered riots are the passive and clumsy design of the enemy against the great and innovative developments and movements of the Iranian nation.” He also characterized the protests across the country as a “minor incident,” saying: “The constructions, great executive works, effective legislation, big judicial works and important issues in foreign policy should not be sidelined by these minor incidents.”
Furthermore, the regime’s police and security forces, which are backed and emboldened by the supreme leader, continue to employ full-scale brute force in order to suppress the protesters.
Nevertheless, it is important to point out that, even though the protests do not appear to be organized under a single leadership, the collective nature and the danger of mass demonstrations to the regime should not be underestimated. History has shown that such collective protests can endanger the hold on power of ruling governments.
The protests are not a “minor incident” or “scattered protests,” as Khamenei claims. Even one of the regime’s main institutions has acknowledged that an overwhelming majority of the population — nearly 75 percent — is willing to participate in protests. The country’s Supreme National Defense University, which focuses on national security, warned government officials about such a danger in a recently published study.
It concluded: “In the course of the social and political developments of the last decade, all kinds of activism have been created and have become new centers for social and cultural communication and … the creation of political power. All these factors have completely changed aspects of Iranian society and, along with the two protest waves of January 2018 and November 2019, the suspicion that Iranian society is on the threshold of political collapse has been strengthened.”
The collective nature and the danger of mass demonstrations to the regime should not be underestimated.
Indeed, the series of uprisings seen around the country in 2018, 2019 and now in 2022 point to the people’s fury and the depth of popular support for regime change. The first of these waves of popular protest erupted nearly four years ago over the state of the Iranian economy. It spread across the country and took on an increasingly political tone. The resistance movement encompassed a huge number of cities and towns, with each of them providing an outlet for unusually provocative slogans. The chants included “Death to the dictator,” “Hard-liners, reformers, game over,” and “Our enemy is right here.”
Contrary to Khamenei’s claim that these uprisings are trivial, not only has the number of protests been rising in the last few years, but their scope and longevity has also risen, as people have become more empowered to stand up to the authorities.
Chants that were at first focused on the economy have long since turned into political slogans, such as “Freedom, freedom, freedom,” “From Kurdistan to Tehran, I sacrifice my life for Iran,” “We are all Mahsa (Amini), fight and we will fight back,” and “Imprisoned teachers must be freed.” The other major warning is that Khamenei, who is the main figure of the theocracy, has become a permanent fixture in the protesters’ slogan, with people chanting “This year is a year of sacrifice. Seyyed Ali (Khamenei) will be overthrown,” and “Death to Khamenei.”
Some Iranian officials and organizations only blame the economy for the protests. For instance, the study by the Supreme National Defense University acknowledged that 67.2 percent of Iranians have experienced a “relative state of deprivation” at “high levels,” while 82.2 percent “insist they have not yet met their needs” and “59.4 percent of people consider the country’s situation anomalous and abnormal.”
The dire economic situation is indeed a critical factor driving the ongoing protests, but there are other reasons for people’s anger toward the theocratic establishment that should not be disregarded. These grievances include people’s dissatisfaction with the regime’s political repression, restrictive religious laws, human rights violations, hemorrhaging of the nation’s resources on proxy and militia groups across the region — such as the Houthis, Hezbollah and Iraqi Shiite militia groups — and the government’s reluctance to improve the living standards of its own people.
In a nutshell, the Iranian regime appears to be facing an unsolvable crisis. While the authorities attempt to downplay the protests, the latest uprising and mass demonstrations should be a significant warning to the Iranian leaders and their hold on power.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh.

Turkiye may be falling back into the terror quagmire
Yasar Yakis/Arab News/November 20/2022
The perpetrator of the terrorist attack that took place in Istanbul last week, killing at least six people and wounding 80 others, six of them critically, was arrested just 10 hours after the blast. She was identified as Ahlam Albashir. She confessed that she was a member of the strongest Kurdish party in Syria, the Democratic Union Party, known as the PYD.
At least 46 people who were thought to be involved in the attack have been arrested. More people may be arrested in the coming days. Turkish authorities disclosed that Albashir admitted she was trained in Kobane, Syria, and entered Turkiye via Afrin, which is supposed to be under Ankara’s military control. She was working (or at least spending her time) in a textile workshop run by Syrian refugees for four months before the attack.
Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu has previously taken pride in saying that the authorities were aware of every detail of the activities of foreign terrorists operating in Turkiye, down to the size of their boots. He used to say: “A bird would not be able to fly over our border without our knowledge.” This turned out to be an empty claim. Terrorist acts are perpetrated in every country, but this incident invites certain comments. Istiklal Avenue in the Beyoglu district, where the blast took place, is full of police officers. There are also foreign consulates and their private guards. Thousands of street cameras watch the movements of every single individual.
Albashir sat for about 40 minutes on a road-side bench on an extremely busy street, along with the bag that she placed on the bench. Apparently none of the police or intelligence officers thought her behavior was suspect or felt the need to approach her. Security cameras show her running away as the time of the blast approached. She then took a taxi to the place where she was going to be evacuated from. Communications intercepted between Syria and Istanbul showed that the organizers of the attack decided to dispose of her immediately so that she could not talk, but they must not have had an opportunity to do so.
The command center in Syria was more concerned with evacuating to Bulgaria a certain Bilal Hassan, who was posing as Albashir’s husband. He is believed to have made it to Bulgaria. Five Moldovan citizens were arrested in Bulgaria in connection with this incident, which exposes the ramifications of the network. The complicated ramifications that last week’s Istanbul blast exposed are there for everyone to see.
Several embassies sent messages of condolences to the Turkish authorities. But Soylu refused to accept the condolences of the US Embassy in Ankara because, he said, these terrorists were trained by the US authorities.
A few hours after the blast, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan flew to Bali, Indonesia, to attend the meeting of the G20. He was probably hoping to hold substantive talks with US President Joe Biden, but they held only a short talk of 15 minutes on the margins of the summit. Unlike his interior minister, Erdogan did not refuse the condolences of the US authorities.
This incident coincided with a timid initiative of the ruling AKP party to cooperate with Turkiye’s main pro-Kurdish political party, the HDP. The cooperation was mainly aimed at persuading as many Kurdish voters as possible to vote in favor of the ruling party in next year’s elections. Another enticement was the AKP’s contact with the pro-Kurdish party with a view to gaining its support for a constitutional amendment on the headscarf issue. Until 10 days ago, the far-right MHP, at AKP’s behest, did not spare any curse on the same pro-Kurdish party.
Last week, the ruling party made an exceptionally positive gesture in favor of the former co-chair of the HDP party, Selahattin Demirtas, who is serving a prison sentence for no legally valid reason. When Demirtas’ father suffered a heart attack, the government made a helicopter available for him to be transported from Edirne prison to Corlu airport and a private plane to take him to distant Diyarbakir to see his father. No political detainee had benefited from such favorable treatment before. This gesture by Erdogan was perceived as a last resort to attract as many Kurdish voters as possible to the AKP.
Ankara has to presume that the extremely strong intelligence services of Bashar Assad’s regime, the Mukhabarat, as well as a multitude of Kurdish, religious extremist and Daesh factions, must have penetrated Turkiye and established dormant cells in every corner of the country. The complicated ramifications that last week’s Istanbul blast exposed are there for everyone to see. Uprooting such deeply penetrated cells may take decades.
*Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkiye and founding member of the ruling AK Party. Twitter: @yakis_yasar