English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For November 18/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.november18.22.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
Very truly, I tell you, whoever keeps my word will never see death
Saint John 08/51-55/:”Very truly, I tell
you, whoever keeps my word will never see death.’The Jews said to him, ‘Now we
know that you have a demon. Abraham died, and so did the prophets; yet you say,
“Whoever keeps my word will never taste death.” Are you greater than our father
Abraham, who died? The prophets also died. Who do you claim to be?’Jesus
answered, ‘If I glorify myself, my glory is nothing. It is my Father who
glorifies me, he of whom you say, “He is our God”, though you do not know him.
But I know him; if I were to say that I do not know him, I would be a liar like
you. But I do know him and I keep his word.””
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on November
17-18/2022
Lebanon MPs fail for sixth time to elect president
Berri to call for legislative session 'whenever needed' despite some MPs
objections
Presidential deadlock: Vacuum wins again in stormy session
MPs quarrel over 'two-third quorum' in déjà vu presidential vote session
Berri says 1990 troika better than 'Aoun-Bassil-Jreissati' era
Bassil slams Franjieh, says there can be no president without FPM
Report: Paris seeking to convince Bassil with presidential settlement
Bassil: We hope to find an extended hand because we are really seeking a
solution
Constitutional Council rejects appeals against Khazen, Frem, Alameh
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on November
17-18/2022
Is Iran preparing to execute dissidents?
Amnesty International slams Iran’s ‘chilling use of death penalty’ against
protesters
British spy chief: Iran has tried 10 times to kidnap or kill UK-based
individuals
IAEA board passes resolution ordering Iran to cooperate with probe
US imposes new sanctions over Iran sanctions evasion, targets Chinese firms
Zelenskiy Says No Peace Until Ukraine Gets Crimea, Donbas Back
Russian missiles pound Ukrainian energy facilities and defence plant
Russia's economy has finally fallen into recession, 8 months after it invaded
Ukraine
Russian strikes hits Ukraine's Odesa region, city of Dnipro
Top US general says Russia ignored his call after Poland missile strike — an
ominous glimpse at how a future crisis could play out
Kremlin says it cannot imagine public negotiations with Kyiv
Canadian commander says NATO battle group in Latvia could beat back Russian
attack
Analysis: Have China and India shifted stance on Russia war?
Some return to war-battered hub of Palestinian life in Syria
S. Korea's leader discusses megaprojects with Saudi prince
Netanyahu says Turkey's Erdogan agrees to reset ties
At least 21 killed, several others hurt in Gaza Strip fire
Macron says World Cup in Qatar 'should not be politicized'
Second fire breaks out in Baghdad airport, prompting probe
GOP wins slim House majority, complicating ambitious agenda
Titles For The
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on November
17-18/2022
It Is Time for NATO to Confront Iran/Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/November
17/2022
Economic gloom ensures Sunak appears electorally doomed/Andrew Hammond/Arab
News/November 17, 2022
Iran’s economic control is its hidden power in Syria/Ghassan Ibrahim/Arab
News/November 17, 2022
This is no time to ease policy toward the Iranian regime/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab
News/November 17, 2022
Iran May Be Outsourcing Kamikaze Drone Production to Venezuela/Farzin Nadimi/The
Washington Institute/November 17, 2022
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on November
17-18/2022
Lebanon MPs fail for sixth time to
elect president
Najia Houssari/Arab News/November 17, 2022
Hezbollah deputies submit blank ballots, leaving country without a head of state
for another week
BEIRUT: Lebanese MPs failed for a sixth time on Thursday to elect a president
and fill the void left by Michel Aoun, who ended his term last month without
replacement. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri announced that a seventh vote would
be held next Thursday, bringing to 24 the minimum number of days without a head
of state. A total of 112 MPs cast ballots on Thursday, from a total of 128.
Independent MP Michel Mouawad received 43 and academic Issam Khalifeh received
seven. One vote was cast for former MP and presidential candidate Sleiman
Frangieh.
Ziad Baroud, a former minister, received three. MP Michel Daher, a non-Maronite
who did not submit his candidacy, received one vote, and two ballots were
canceled. However, 46 blank votes were cast by Hezbollah, and nine were given to
“New Lebanon.” Parliament is split between supporters of Hezbollah and its
opponents. The votes for Mouawad, whose candidacy is opposed by Hezbollah, was
far fewer than the two-thirds needed for outright election in the first round.
Hezbollah and their Amal allies then withdrew from the session, resulting in the
loss of quorum and spiking any chance of a second round of voting. Kataeb MP
Sami Gemayel started the session with a question on why a two-thirds quorum was
needed in a second round, when the constitution stipulated that an absolute
majority was sufficient.
Berri said that sessions always required a two-thirds quorum. The speaker added
that a two-thirds majority was needed for the election of the president in the
first round and an absolute majority was sufficient for the second.
Georges Adwan, Lebanese Forces MP, supported Berri’s commitment to the
two-thirds quorum. However, he added: “How come the deputies who do not attend
the electoral sessions are not subject to legal consequences?”
Mouawad’s votes declined by one from the previous vote on Wednesday. “We are
working to reach consensus with reformist deputies who did not vote for me,” he
said, adding that the battle “we are fighting today is between those who want to
have a purely Lebanese electoral process and those who are waiting for the
secret word from outside.”Hezbollah’s MPs, who continued to cast blank votes,
did not participate in the quorum dispute. “The candidate we want has to be
sovereign and we don’t want a president that stabs the resistance in the back,”
one was quoted as saying. Progressive Socialist Party MP Bilal Abdallah said
that “casting a blank vote shuts down dialogue.”He added: “Apparently, some
political blocs got used to playing on the brink of an abyss when it comes to
important matters. We hope that the national interest will prevail soon without
waiting for external signals.”
*Gebran Bassil, head of the Free Patriotic Movement, was in Paris and did not
attend the electoral session. He said that the FPM was talking with all
interested parties, but ruled out support for Frangieh, saying he was an ally of
Syrian President Bashar
Berri to call for legislative session 'whenever needed'
despite some MPs objections
Naharnet/November 17, 2022
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri will call for a legislative session whenever the
need arises, he told al-Joumhouria newspaper, in remarks published Thursday.
Many MPs including al-Kataeb and Change MPS, Michel Mouawad and other
independent lawmakers had criticized a parliamentary session that discussed a
letter by ex-President Michel Aoun. They walked out after voicing their
objection. "Parliament must only convene to elect a new president," al-Kataef
chief MP Sami Gemayel said back then. But Berri told the daily that he will call
for Parliament to convene once the joint parliamentary committees finalize the
capital control law. "I will immediately call for a legislative session to pass
the law," he said.
Presidential deadlock: Vacuum wins again in stormy session
Agence France Presse/November 17, 2022
"It's a complete deadlock," change lawmaker Mark Daou told AFP, after parliament
failed Thursday to elect a president for the sixth time. "We will not have a
president before next year." Lawmaker Michel Mouawad, who is seen as close to
the United States, won the support of 43 of parliament's 128 MPs. But his tally
was outnumbered by the 45 blank ballots cast by pro-Hezbollah lawmakers and fell
well short of the margin needed for victory. Mouawad said some change MPs will
vote for him in the future, naming lawmakers Mark Daou and Najat Saliba. In each
of the six sessions convened to elect a new president so far, the pro-Hezbollah
bloc has walked out before lawmakers could hold a second round of voting which
would have reduced the number of ballots needed for victory from 86 to 65.
Lawmaker Ali Hassan Khalil of the Hezbollah-allied Amal movement said the bloc
had adopted the tactic because it was "impossible to elect a president without a
consensus among lawmakers". MPs quarreled Thursday over the two-third quorum
that some considered as unnecessary in the second round of voting. "Ask you
father about it," Speaker Nabih Berri told Kateb party leader Sami Gemayel who
was objecting to the two-third quorum, while Amal MP Qabalan Qabalan said that
in 1982, MPs were brought to Parliament in armored military vehicles to secure
quorum for Bashir Gemayel's election, which infuriated his son MP Nadim Gemayel.
Mouawad's candidacy is opposed by Hezbollah, whose leader Sayyed Hassan
Nasrallah called last week for a president ready to stand up to the United
States. There have been delays in electing previous Lebanese presidents. Aoun's
own election in 2016 followed a more than two-year vacancy at the presidential
palace as lawmakers made 45 failed attempts before reaching a consensus on his
candidacy. But this year's vacancy comes as Lebanon is mired in an economic
crisis that the World Bank has dubbed one of the worst in recent history. The
country has also had only a caretaker government since May despite calls from
international creditors for sweeping reforms to clear the way for the release of
billions of dollars in emergency loans.
MPs quarrel over 'two-third quorum' in déjà vu presidential
vote session
Naharnet/November 17, 2022
Parliament convened Thursday for the sixth time and failed again to elect a
president, with the post vacant since the mandate of Michel Aoun expired last
month. Parliament is split between supporters of Hezbollah and its opponents,
neither having a clear majority.Again the votes were divided between blank ba
llots and MP Michel Mouawad, whose father Rene Mouawad served as president.
Forty-six blank votes were cast and Mouawad received 43 votes. Prominent
historian and academic Issam khalifeh Khalife garnered seven votes from Change
and independent MPs and former Minister Ziad Baroud received 3 votes, one of
them from Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab who once again differentiated himself
from the FPM by voting for Baroud instead of casting a white ballot. For the
first time, Marada leader Suleiman Franjieh, backed by Hezbollah, got one vote.
Hezbollah rejects the candidacy of Mouawad, who is seen as close to the United
States, and has called for a president who “would reassure the resistance," but
the group still did not vote for Franjieh, as media reports said they need to
secure a Christian support to their candidate. Hezbollah and Amal MPs have
called many times for consensus and dialogue, as they considered that voting for
a candidate who has no chance of winning is pointless. The second round in all
the past sessions had been cancelled due to lack of quorum as some MPs would
leave the session before the second round. MP and Kataeb chief Sami Gemayel
discussed again on Thursday that the two-third quorum is not required in the
second round of voting, asking Speaker Nabih Berri about the legal rule behind
his decision. "Which article in the constitution says that the two-third quorum
is required in the second round of voting," Gemayel asked. The discussion
escalated into a fiery argument, as Gemayel dubbed Berri's answer in the last
session as "inappropriate" from the Speaker, referring to a pun that Berri used
when asked about the constitutional article. Berri gave examples to Gemayel
about previous sessions in Lebanon's history to defend the two-third quorum.
"Ask your father about it," he told Gemayel. "You've done your research,"
Gemayel replied, upset. He added that ex-president Amine Gemayel is against the
two-third quorum. Lebanese Forces MP Georges Adwan defended the two-third
quorum, and criticized the chaos in the parliament, but he also urged the MPs
not to leave the session and to be responsible and vote. Change MP Elias Jradeh
said that the homeland is more important than the constitution, urging for an
open dialogue, and saying that vacuum is unacceptable. Change MP Melhem Khalaf
suggested open sessions until quorum is reached.
Berri says 1990 troika better than 'Aoun-Bassil-Jreissati'
era
Naharnet/November 17, 2022
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri's press office said Thursday that the situation
in 1990 was better than the Aoun-Bassil-Jreissati era of the past six years.
Bassil had said in a leaked audio from Paris that electing Marada leader
Suleiman Franjieh as a president will bring Lebanon back to the nineties. "We
will move from a Berri-Hariri-Hrawi troika to a Berri-Mikati-Franjieh troika,"
Bassil added. He said that there won't be a president without the free Patriotic
Movement and that even if all parties agree on Suleiman Franjieh the FPM will
say no.
Bassil slams Franjieh, says there can be no president
without FPM
Naharnet/November 17, 2022
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil has stressed that the FPM will not
endorse the presidential nomination of Marada Movement leader Suleiman Franjieh,
even if all other parties agree on him. “The FPM would not lose if Suleiman
Franjieh becomes president… and he does not represent a threat to us,” Bassil is
heard telling supporters in a leaked audio recorded during his ongoing visit to
Paris. “We have been given whatever you want of guarantees and demands, even
without asking for them, and all parties are telling me to say what I want,”
Bassil added.
“What will he promise you of? That he will fight corruption or build a state?”
the FPM chief went on to say, ridiculing Franjieh’s nomination. Responding to a
supporter’s question, Bassil said: “We always choose the hard path. The easiest
thing today would be to let them elect Suleiman Franjieh and we would get
whatever we want – in the state and as to ministers and protection and many
other things. We would get our share from oil.” “We would get what we want, rest
for six years and become president after six years. We are choosing to say no in
order to achieve real reform and a real state, because he (Franjieh) can’t do
them,” Bassil explained. He added that “the issue is not about having a
candidate but rather about finding a candidate and securing consensus for him.”
As for possible pressures on him, the FPM chief said: “I cannot be pressured nor
embarrassed and I have said through the media that (even Hezbollah chief) Sayyed
Hassan (Nasrallah) cannot sway me.” “It is not important to become president,
but rather to succeed (as president),” Bassil added. Revealing that he has
information that “things are not ready today” regarding the presidential
election, Bassil emphasized that “there can be no president” without the FPM.
Moreover, Bassil warned that Franjieh’s election would be “a return to 1990”
when “(Rafik) Hariri, (Nabih) Berri and (Elias) Hrawi” were in power. “Another
version would be (Najib) Mikati, Berri and Franjieh,” he cautioned.
Report: Paris seeking to convince Bassil with presidential
settlement
Naharnet/November 17, 2022
French officials are seeking to reach “an urgent presidential settlement” in
Lebanon “before the end of the year,” sources informed on Free Patriotic
Movement chief Jebran Bassil’s visit to Paris have said. “Accordingly, it was
necessary to try to convince Bassil with endorsing it, seeing as he represents
the biggest obstacle in the way of the election of a new president,” the sources
told the Nidaa al-Watan newspaper in remarks published Thursday. “As a result of
their constant consultations with all Lebanese parties, including with the
Shiite duo, the officials in Paris believe that shortening the vacuum period is
organically linked to resolving this main obstacle,” the sources added. Bassil
has meanwhile carried to Paris “a proposal based on producing a comprehensive
basket for ending the presidential void, which includes a prior agreement on a
president, premier, the government’s line-up and its agenda for the coming
period,” the sources added. The sources, however, noted that the French
officials do not intend to discuss any “bargain” over the presidency with Bassil
or with anyone else. “The French told Bassil the moment he arrived that
prolonging vacuum would lead to aggravating the crises and a social security
deterioration in Lebanon, which would negatively affect him through boosting the
chances of the election of presidential candidates whom he opposes,” the sources
added. The French accordingly advised Bassil to be “an influential elector in
the presidential juncture instead of missing the train of the presidential
settlement which is being seriously prepared and will be launched soon,” the
sources said. Moreover, contacts are still ongoing between Paris and Hezbollah
in this regard and “things are going in the right direction in order to end the
vacuum as soon as possible,” the sources went on to say. Meanwhile, Bassil’s
meetings in Paris have been “below the level of his ambitions, especially after
he failed to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron,” the sources added,
noting that the FPM chief has met with “a number of French MPs, Presidential
Advisor Patrick Durrell and other officials from the Lebanese crisis cell.”Asked
by a reporter on the possibility of the election of Army chief General Joseph
Aoun as president, Bassil declined to comment but “made a nod that indicates
that this possibility is marginalized and ridiculed.”
Bassil: We hope to find an extended hand because we are
really seeking a solution
Naharnet/November 17, 2022
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil did not run for presidency because
he did not want to further complicate things, he told France 24 in a televised
interview. Bassil said Thursday that he opposes that Marada leader Suleiman
Franjieh becomes a president because he does not agree with him on the same
political program regarding reforms and building the state. Bassil considered
that "Lebanon is under a siege from abroad," and that "a president cannot
succeed unless this siege is removed." "The collapse cannot be stopped and the
state cannot be built without reforms," he added. "We hope to find an extended
hand because we are really seeking a solution."Bassil went on to say that
electing a president is not the solution but rather a gateway to the solution
and a part of it. "It leads us to form a government and to carry out reforms,"
he said. "We agree with Hezbollah on many issues and we disagree with it on
others. Today we and Hezbollah do not share identical points of view. Our
priority is to find a president within a program and a framework for a
comprehensive solution," Bassil added. As for Bassil's visit to Paris, he said
that he had asked to meet French officials in order to present to them "an idea
and a program." Bassil had arrived Wednesday to Paris to discuss with French
officials presidential, governmental and economic matters, media reports said.
He did not meet with French President Emmanuel Macron. In a leaked audio from
Paris he said that electing Franjieh as a president will bring Lebanon back to
the nineties. "We will move from a Berri-Hariri-Hrawi troika to a
Berri-Mikati-Franjieh troika," Bassil said, adding that even if all parties
agree on Suleiman Franjieh the FPM will say no. Berri responded, shortly after
the audio was leaked, that the situation in 1990 was better than the
Aoun-Bassil-Jreissati era of the past six years.
Constitutional Council rejects appeals against Khazen, Frem,
Alameh
Naharnet/November 17, 2022
The Constitutional Council on Thursday dismissed two more electoral appeals
filed over the results of the May 15 parliamentary elections. The first appeal
had been filed by the candidate Wassef al-Harakeh against MP Fadi Alameh over
the Shiite seat in Baabda. The second appeal had been filed by the candidate
Simon Sfeir against MPs Neemat Frem and Farid al-Khazen over the Maronite seat
in Jbeil-Keserwan. This is the third batch of rulings that the Council issues
and it is still looking into several appeals. So far, all appeals have been
rejected.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on November
17-18/2022
Is Iran preparing to execute dissidents?
David Faris/The Weel/November 17, 2022
With global attention focused on the war in Ukraine and national elections in
Brazil and the United States, Iran has continued to ruthlessly crack down on
protests stemming from the murder of Mahsa Amini in September. Recently, a
protester was sentenced to death. Does this mean that a broader and even more
violent response to the protests is inevitable? Can the regime be toppled? How
many dissidents are authorities willing to kill? Will Iran's violence against
protesters impact the negotiations over a revised nuclear deal? Here's
everything you need to know about what's happening in Iran:
What's happening with the protests? Anti-government protests shook authoritarian
Iran following the killing of a young woman named Mahsa Amini in Tehran on Sept.
16 and have spread to at least 80 cities around the country. Amini had been
arrested by the country's morality police for improperly wearing her hijab, and
died suspiciously in custody. The murder was part of a broader effort by the
hardline government of President Ebrahim Raissi to tighten social restrictions
and roll back some of the freedom enjoyed by women under his predecessor, the
comparatively moderate Hassan Rouhani. Like many other sclerotic dictatorships,
Iran often deploys its ruthless power over its citizens without any legal or
moral justification. The killing of Amini resonated with Iranians frustrated by
the theocratic regime's regressive gender politics and arbitrary exercise of
power, as well as the economic isolation and stagnation that are the consequence
of its foreign policy stances. What probably worried government officials the
most was the open contempt for the Islamic Republic itself and the calls for it
to be overthrown. Even during the massive 2009 Green Movement, for example,
protesters mostly called only for a proper counting of the votes in that year's
presidential election, which had been rigged by the regime. "Where is my vote?"
was the question asked by millions of peaceful demonstrators. Thirteen years
later, the populace appears uninterested in politely asking to have ballots
tabulated.
This time, dissidents have broader ambitions, and the response has been brutal.
While clear and accurate information on the ground has been hard to come by for
foreign journalists, there is no question that the Islamic Republic is coming
down hard on non-violent protesters. According to the Human Rights Activists
News Agency, 321 protestors have been killed by regime authorities, including
both security services and the irregular Basij, a volunteer militia, since the
eruption of discontent in August. Between 13,000 and 15,000 people have been
arrested, a staggering total, and are currently awaiting charges or trials. The
New York Times also reports that thousands of dissidents under the age of 18 are
being targeted, with at least 50 having died so far.
On Nov. 14, courts issued the first death sentence for a protester accused of
"enmity against God" and "spreading corruption on Earth," for allegedly setting
fire to a government building. The man's identity is unknown. Rumors that all
15,000 political prisoners will be given death sentences, which spread rapidly
on social media on Monday, are not true. However, the Iranian parliament urged
the country's judiciary last week to "deal decisively with the perpetrators of
these crimes [the protests] and with all those who assisted in the crimes and
provoked rioters," according to Al Jazeera.
As Afshin Marashi, a professor of modern Iranian history at the University of
Oklahoma, explained to NBC News, "In a situation where information is hard to
confirm, rumors can spread rapidly." The recent viral rumor of a mass execution
was "likely fueled by memories of what happened in 1988," when "thousands of
political prisoners were executed by orders of Ayatollah Khomeini within the
span of a few months."
Will there be a foreign policy impact?
The brutal repression on display could have multiple repercussions for Iran. The
European Union is set to impose additional sanctions after targeting 15
individuals and entities for asset freezing and travel bans in October. While
such measures are less comprehensive than existing sanctions, they reflect both
a genuine horror at Tehran's actions as well as the limitations created by the
comprehensiveness of sanctions already in place. The U.S. also imposed
additional sanctions on firms seen to be doing business with Tehran, including
some Chinese companies, on Sept. 29 of this year in response to the protests,
and then joined the EU with more targeted sanctions on individuals last month.
These moves are especially consequential since Iran's oil exports have ticked up
after collapsing following the withdrawal of the United States from the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action, better known as the Iran Deal, in May 2018. That
collapse led to a host of other economic problems, including inflation,
unemployment, and negative GDP growth. But Iran's economy has quietly recovered
as Tehran has figured out ways to circumvent the sanctions. Republicans have
accused the Biden administration of looking the other way as Iran stepped up oil
sales to China, in the hopes of diminishing the overall impact of the Russian
oil embargo and creating a climate more favorable to a revival of the nuclear
agreement. A bloody crackdown, in addition to the terrible human tragedy of
innocent lives cut short, will almost certainly complicate the already difficult
path to a revival of the JCPOA. It is one thing to say that nuclear negotiations
should be "de-linked" from other flashpoints between Iran and the United States
and its allies, such as Iranian support for the Houthis in Yemen, its military,
and political involvement in Iraq, and its ongoing relationship with the
Lebanese organization Hezbollah. That is common practice in international
diplomacy. Both the Obama and Biden administrations seemed to regard a nuclear
agreement as a goal to be sought on its own terms, hoping that it might lead to
a broader thaw, but not making that thaw a precondition or even a primary goal
of the nuclear deal. It is quite another for the Biden administration to sign
off on an agreement with a government that is executing peaceful dissidents
while the ink dries. It is unlikely that anyone in the White House will want to
risk that kind of public relations fiasco, even after the midterm elections when
political pressure over the price of gas has eased, at least for now. What's the
end game? Meanwhile, Iran's courageous protesters don't seem to be going away,
despite the violence wielded by the regime and the long odds of a successful
revolution. They will need powerful voices inside the regime to conclude that
reform and compromise are preferable to the kind of blunt force that could make
the country all but ungovernable.
Amnesty International slams Iran’s ‘chilling use of
death penalty’ against protesters
Arab News/November 17, 2022
LONDON: Amnesty International has condemned the “chilling use of the death
penalty” by Iranian authorities in a bid to crush nationwide protests. The human
rights group said the regime in Tehran had used “sham trials” to condemn at
least 21 people to death in order to “intimidate” other protesters, expressing
its “shock” that Iranian politicians had called for “speedy trials and public
executions.” It said it feared the 21 people at risk of execution would just be
the first of many people subjected to such treatment, with thousands arrested
since the start of the unrest. Amnesty urged all foreign governments with
embassies in Tehran to “immediately send high level observers to all ongoing
trials where defendants are at risk of being sentenced to death.”Iran has been
rocked by anti-regime protests since Sept. 16, following the death of
22-year-old Mahsa Amini in detention after she was arrested for wearing a
headscarf improperly.
According to BBC Persian, over 16,000 people were arrested after the protests
broke out following her death, and hundreds have been killed by the authorities
in clashes across the country. Those killed and detained include journalists,
lawyers, human rights activists, university students and even children arrested
at their schools. Diana Eltahawy, Amnesty’s deputy director for the Middle East
and North Africa, said: “The Iranian authorities must immediately quash all
death sentences, refrain from seeking the imposition of the death penalty and
drop all charges against those arrested in connection with their peaceful
participation in protests.” She also condemned “fundamentally flawed criminal
trials devoid of transparency or independence,” adding: “Two months into the
popular uprising and three years on from the November 2019 protests, the crisis
of impunity prevailing in Iran is enabling the Iranian authorities to not only
continue carrying out mass killings but also to escalate the use of the death
penalty as a tool of political repression.”She said: “Member states of the UN
Human Rights Council holding a special session on Iran next week must urgently
establish an investigative and accountability mechanism to address this
all-out-assault on the right to life and other human rights.” Amnesty also said
defendants had not been given to access to their own lawyers, had been denied
the presumption of innocence and their right to silence and, by being sent in
front of Iran’s Revolutionary Courts, their right to “a fair, public hearing
before a competent, independent and impartial tribunal.”
British spy chief: Iran has tried 10 times to kidnap or
kill UK-based individuals
Reuters/November 17, 2022
LONDON: Iran’s intelligence services have tried on at least 10 occasions to
kidnap or even kill British nationals or individuals based in the United Kingdom
regarded by Tehran as a threat, the head of Britain’s domestic spy agency said
on Wednesday.
Ken McCallum, Director General of the Security Service known as MI5, said while
at home Tehran was using violence to silence critics, its “aggressive
intelligence services” were also projecting a threat to Britain directly. “At
its sharpest this includes ambitions to kidnap or even kill British or UK-based
individuals perceived as enemies of the regime,” McCallum said in a speech at
MI5’s headquarters. “We have seen at least ten such potential threats since
January alone.” The British spy chief’s words echo similar remarks earlier on
Wednesday from French President Emmanuel Macron that Iran was being increasingly
aggressive toward France by detaining its citizens. For its part, Iran has
accused Western foes of stoking nationwide protests ignited by the death of
Iranian Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini on Sept. 16 in the custody of the morality
police. “The current wave of protests in Iran is asking fundamental questions of
the totalitarian regime,” McCallum said. “This could signal profound change, but
the trajectory is uncertain.”
IAEA board passes resolution ordering Iran to cooperate
with probe
Reuters/November 17, 2022
VIENNA: The UN atomic watchdog’s 35-nation Board of Governors passed a
resolution on Thursday ordering Iran to cooperate urgently with the agency’s
investigation into uranium traces found at three undeclared sites, diplomats at
the closed-door vote said.
The resolution drafted by the United States, Britain, France and Germany says
the board “decides it is essential and urgent” that Iran explain the origin of
the uranium particles and more generally give the International Atomic Energy
Agency all the answers it requires.
While it is not the first resolution the board has passed against Iran on the
issue — another was adopted in June — its wording is stronger and hints at a
diplomatic escalation down the line — possibly referring Iran to the UN Security
Council for not complying with its nuclear obligations.
“Iran must now provide the necessary cooperation, no more empty promises,” the
United States said in its statement to the board shortly before the resolution
was adopted with 26 votes in favor, five abstentions and two countries absent,
according to diplomats in the meeting. Only Russia and China voted against.
“Iran must know that if it fails to provide the cooperation necessary to resolve
these matters, the Board will have to be prepared to take further action,
including under Article XII.C of the Agency’s Statute,” it added, referring to a
clause that lays out options including referral to the Security Council.
More immediately, Iran tends to bristle at such resolutions and it remained to
be seen what action it would take. In June Iran removed additional IAEA
monitoring equipment including surveillance cameras installed under its 2015
deal with world powers to curb its disputed uranium enrichment program.
On Thursday it indicated it would call off a meeting with the IAEA due to be
held later this month meant to end the impasse over explaining the origin of the
uranium traces. The IAEA responded by saying it hoped the meeting would take
place.
US imposes new sanctions over Iran sanctions evasion,
targets Chinese firms
Reuters/November 17, 2022
WASHINGTON: The United States on Thursday imposed sanctions on over a dozen
companies based in a range of countries including China and Hong Kong that
Washington accused of facilitating the sale of Iranian petrochemicals and
petroleum products to buyers in East Asia.
The latest US move against Iranian oil smuggling comes as efforts to revive
Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal have stalled and ties between the Islamic Republic and
the West are increasingly strained as Iranians keep up anti-government protests.
Washington has increasingly targeted Chinese companies over the export of Iran’s
petrochemicals as the prospects of reviving the nuclear pact have dimmed.
Indirect talks on the accord, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (JCPOA), have broken down. The US Treasury Department in a statement said
the 13 companies designated on Thursday facilitated the sales of hundreds of
millions of dollars worth of Iranian petrochemicals and petroleum products to
buyers in East Asia on behalf of companies under US sanctions, including the
National Iranian Oil Company and Triliance Petrochemical Co. Ltd. “Today’s
action further demonstrates the complex sanctions evasion methods Iran employs
to illicitly sell petroleum and petrochemical products,” the Treasury’s Under
Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Brian Nelson, said in the
statement. “The United States will continue to implement sanctions against those
actors facilitating these sales.”
In Seattle, an Iranian protests in a way banned back home -
through dance
SEATTLE/Reuters/November 17, 2022
Hair uncovered and hands painted red, Iranian-born choreographer Parmida Ziaei
dances in the streets and on stage to show her support for demonstrators more
than 6,000 miles (10,000 km) from her home in Seattle. Iran has been engulfed in
protests since Mahsa Amini, 22, died on Sept. 16 after she was arrested for
allegedly flouting the Islamic Republic's strict dress code imposed on women. At
least 344 protesters have been killed in the protests, including 52 minors,
according to the rights activist HRANA news agency. It also reported 40 members
of the security forces have been killed, and 15,820 people being arrested.
Iranian authorities have not given any numbers on those killed or injured; they
have neither denied nor confirmed HRANA reports. At one street protest, Ziaei
and two other performers, one Iranian and one American, wore red skirts and
painted their hands red to symbolize the blood that has been shed.Her
choreography includes gestures that draw attention to their hair, as if to defy
Iranian authorities who have decreed women must hide their hair under scarves in
public.Ziaei, who also performs solo, incorporates into her performances a pair
of songs that have become anthems of the Iranian movement: "Baraye" ("For") by
Shervin Hajipour, with lyrics derived from the tweets of protesters, and "Zan,
Zendegi Azadi" ("Woman, Life, Freedom") by an anonymous woman demanding rights.
"Women have not been able to dance in public in Iran for the past 43 years,"
said Ziaei, 29, who left Iran for the United States a decade ago to attend
university. "We're not allowed to perform in front of men. We're not allowed to
dance with men. I can create a piece here and I don't have to ask permission
from anybody. I can be naked if I wanted to, right?"Some of the Iranian
demonstrators have defiantly danced in the streets as part of the latest
protests in the country. In Seattle, Ziaei has performed her protest dances
before small audiences at a dance festival, a symposium for artists of color,
and a street demonstration so far. Her work also can be seen on her Instagram
account, though not easily in Iran, where the internet is censored. Her protest
is one of many organized by Iranians across the United States. The current
protests in Iran are among the most forceful to confront the clerical
establishment since the Islamic Revolution of 1979 that overthrew the country's
U.S.-backed monarch. "We're seeing a bravery that for me as a millennial is just
so incredible," Ziaei said. "These 15- or 16- year olds - Gen Z - running in
front of the bullets. They don't have anything to lose anymore. They just want
to have a future."
Zelenskiy Says No Peace Until Ukraine Gets Crimea, Donbas
Back
Bloomberg/November 17, 2022
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said taking back Crimea, which was
annexed by Russia in 2014, as well as the country’s long-occupied eastern Donbas
region are conditions for bringing the nine-month war to an end. “A simple
ceasefire won’t do the trick,” Zelenskiy said in a video interview at the
Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore. “Unless we liberate our whole
territory, we will not bring peace.” Seizing back all of Ukraine’s
internationally recognized territory would entail ambitions that stretch beyond
Russian military gains since its invasion launched in February. After Russia
took over Crimea eight years ago, the Kremlin supported separatist forces in
Donbas in a conflict that simmered despite a Franco-German-led peace initiative,
effectively occupying much of the regions of Luhansk and Donetsk. Ukraine’s
counteroffensive since the summer has pushed back Russian forces in the
northeastern Kharkiv region and, most recently, in the southern Kherson region
after Moscow ordered a retreat across the Dnipro River. Despite the Ukrainian
military’s recapture of more than half of the territory it had lost to Russia
since February, Russia still occupies large swathes of the south and east of the
country, in addition to the Black Sea peninsula.Crimea “is not just a state
within a state, it’s part of our country and part of our sovereignty,” Zelenskiy
said. “Therefore, indeed the de-occupation of Crimea and Donbas will bring an
end to the war.”Still, after the retreat across the Dnipro and with both sides
digging in ahead of the winter months, the path ahead will be “difficult,”
Zelenskiy said. The Ukrainian leader reinforced his message that he wouldn’t
negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin after a series of referendums
annexing additional Ukrainian territory two months ago that were rejected by
most of the world.
As it faces setbacks on the battlefield, Russia is shifting tactics to an air
war, launching barrages of missile strikes targeting Ukraine’s energy and other
civilian infrastructure. Moscow fired almost 100 missiles on Tuesday, the
broadest such attack since the invasion began, leaving millions of homes without
power.
The missile campaign nearly triggered a major escalation with NATO when a rocket
landed inside Polish territory, killing two people in the village of Przewodow.
The military alliance and Polish leaders determined that the strike was most
likely caused by Ukraine’s air defense, defusing the incident, though
Zelenskiy’s government challenged the conclusion.
Russian missiles pound Ukrainian energy facilities and
defence plant
KYIV/Reuters/November 17, 2022
Russia pounded Ukrainian energy facilities and a huge rocket booster factory on
Thursday in a new wave of missile strikes that Ukrainian officials denounced as
terrorism. Explosions echoed though cities including the southern port of Odesa,
the capital Kyiv, the central city of Dnipro and the southeastern region of
Zaporizhzhia where officials said two people were killed. Prime Minister Denys
Shmyhal said targets in the second wave of heavy missile strikes this week
included the huge Pivdenmash defence plant in Dnipro. He gave no details of any
damage but state energy company Naftogaz said gas production facilities in east
Ukraine had been damaged or destroyed. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy posted
video footage, apparently shot from a car cam, showing a driver's journey
through Dnipro being interrupted by a huge blast ahead that sent flames and
black smoke pouring into the sky. "No matter what the terrorists want, no matter
what they try to achieve, we must get through this winter and be even stronger
in the spring than we are now, even more ready for the liberation of our entire
territory than we are now," he said. At least 15 people were wounded in Dnipro,
three were hurt in the northeastern city of Kharkiv and at least one was injured
in Odesa, local officials said. Ukrainian officials also reported fierce
fighting in parts of eastern Ukraine. The mayor of Melitopol in southeastern
Ukraine said the city had no heating. Other areas were already subject to
rolling blackouts to save energy after damage from air strikes on Tuesday. The
executive director of Ukraine's largest private energy provider, DTEK, said
long-term outages could last for days in some regions. "Unfortunately, there may
be very few hours during which there will be electricity," Interfax Ukraine news
agency quoted Dmytro Sakharchuk as saying. "It's two or three hours a day."
SOME RUSSIAN MISSILES DESTROYED
Russia, which invaded Ukraine in February, has stepped up attacks on Ukrainian
energy facilities in recent weeks. Moscow dismisses charges of terrorism, saying
its military actions are intended to eliminate dangerous nationalists and
protect Russian speakers. Ukraine says its air defences have knocked out many of
the missiles and drones fired in the last few weeks. Kyiv city officials said
four missiles and five Iranian-made Shahed drones were destroyed near the city
on Thursday. The latest attacks prompted Ukrainian officials to make new calls
for its international allies to send more air defence systems. They also said
Ukraine would stand firm. "The enemy thinks he will weaken our defence with
energy strikes and be able to stab us in the back. This is a naive tactic by
cowardly losers that we are ready for," Andriy Yermak, the head of Zelenskiy's
staff, wrote on Telegram. "They will not succeed. We will crush them."
Russia's economy has finally fallen into recession, 8
months after it invaded Ukraine
Business Insider/November 17, 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin's partial mobilization order sent many fleeing
the draft, hitting the economy.Getty Images
Russia's GDP fell 4% on-year in the third quarter of 2022 — its second straight
quarterly decline. That means the country has fallen into a technical recession.
Top Russian central banker Elvira Nabiullina acknowledged the situation could
worsen, per Interfax. Eight months after it attacked Ukraine, Russia's economy
has finally fallen into a recession, according to official data from Moscow
released Wednesday. Its GDP fell by 4% in the third quarter of the year from a
year ago, according to Rosstat, Russia's statistics agency. This followed a 4.1%
year-on-year decline in its second-quarter GDP — meaning the country has fallen
into a technical recession after two straight quarterly contractions. Though the
textbook definition isn't necessarily indicative of a serious downturn —
Russia's third-quarter GDP slide was in milder than the 7% decline it had
expected earlier — Elvira Nabiullina, the country's top central banker, said
Tuesday the country needs to look at the economic situation "very soberly with
open eyes" and be prepared for any development, according to news agency
Interfax. "Yes, the situation can worsen, we understand this," Nabiullina told
Russian lawmakers, according to the news agency, adding it was necessary to
restructure the economy. Nabiullina's assessment of the economy followed months
of intensifying sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
International companies have exited Russia en masse, while much of its currency
and gold reserves have been frozen since the start of the war on February 24.
And while firm energy prices had propped up Russia's economy for a while, the
tide seems to be turning — in part, due to President Vladimir Putin's partial
mobilization order that sent many fleeing the draft. Research from the Bank of
Russia showed the country's economic activity stalled in September.
Russia's central bank expects the country's economy to contract by 3% to 3.5% in
2022, Nabiullina said on Tuesday, according to an official transcript.
Russian strikes hits Ukraine's Odesa region, city of
Dnipro
Associated Press/November 17, 2022
Russian strikes hit Ukraine's southern Odesa region and the city of Dnipro for
the first time in weeks on Thursday morning, and air raid sirens sounded all
across the country amid fears that Moscow unleashed another large-scale missile
attack. An infrastructure target was hit on the Odesa region, Gov. Maksym
Marchenko said on Telegram, warning about the threat of a "massive missile
barrage on the entire territory of Ukraine." Multiple explosions were also
reported in Dnipro, where two infrastructure objects were damaged and at least
one person was wounded, according to the deputy head of Ukraine's presidential
office, Kyrylo Tymoshenko. Air defense systems were operating in the central
Kyiv region, Gov. Oleksiy Kuleba said. Officials in the Poltava, Kharkiv,
Khmelnytskyi and Rivne regions urged residents to stay in bomb shelters amid the
persisting threat of missile strikes. Thursday's blast follows the huge barrage
of Russian strikes on Tuesday, the biggest attack to date on Ukraine's energy
infrastructure that also resulted in a missile hitting Poland. Russia has
increasingly resorted to targeting Ukraine's power grid as winter approaches as
its battlefield losses mount. The most recent barrage followed days of euphoria
in Ukraine sparked by one of its biggest military successes — the retaking last
week of the southern city of Kherson. The head of Ukraine's presidential office,
Andriy Yermak, called the strikes on energy targets "a naive tactics of cowardly
losers" in a Telegram post on Thursday. "Ukraine has already withstood extremely
difficult strikes by the enemy, which did not lead to results the Russian
cowards hoped for," Yermak wrote, urging Ukrainians not to ignore air raid
sirens.
Top US general says Russia ignored his call after Poland
missile strike — an ominous glimpse at how a future crisis could play out
INSIDER/November 17, 2022
Gen. Mark Milley said he tried calling his Russian counterpart after a missile
hit Poland. But he said he had "no success" contacting Gen. Valery Gerasimov.
The missile strike on the NATO member state sparked concerns that the Ukraine
war could escalate.
Gen. Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said he unsuccessfully
attempted to contact his Russian counterpart following a missile strike in
Poland on Tuesday that killed two people. The lack of communication between the
senior military officials is concerning, given the risk of misunderstandings
causing the Ukraine conflict to spiral into a larger war. At a Pentagon press
conference on Wednesday, Milley told reporters that his aides had "no success"
when they tried to establish contact with Gen. Valery Gerasimov, chairman of the
Russian General Staff, in the wake of the missile hitting Poland on Tuesday. "My
staff was unsuccessful in getting me linked up with General Gerasimov," Milley
said. In the aftermath of the strike, reports initially said the missile could
have been fired by Russia, raising fears of direct military conflict between
NATO and Russia. Poland is a NATO state, and under Article 5 of the
organization's founding treaty member states are pledged to come to the defense
of other members if attacked. However, Western officials now believe that it was
more likely fired by Ukrainian air defense amid a barrage of Russian missile
attacks on Ukrainian cities — a claim that Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelenskyy has pushed back on. The US and its NATO allies have supplied Ukraine
with billions of dollars in aid and military equipment since Russia launched its
invasion in February, and Russia has threatened the West with nuclear weapons
over its support for the country.
Though official contacts between the US government and Kremlin have been
limited, Milley and Gerasimov have had several private discussions since the war
began. According to a Joint Chiefs of Staff readout from October, the two have
discussed "several security-related issues of concern and agreed to keep the
lines of communication open."Open lines of communication "are vital if we are to
avoid the risk of conflict caused by misconception, miscalculations or mistake,"
John Tierney, executive director of the Center for Arms Control and
Non-Proliferation in Washington, told the Associated Press. "It is unsettling to
learn from General Milley that his counterpart was unreachable or not willing to
engage when an explosion occurred in Poland," he added. US defense officials
told the AP that it is not unusual for Gerasimov to be unavailable for a call.
Milley also said during the press conference that he had spoken to his
counterparts in Ukraine and Poland after the missile blast, and that an
investigation to establish the source of the strike was ongoing.
Kremlin says it cannot imagine public negotiations with
Kyiv
MOSCOW (Reuters) /November 17, 2022
The Kremlin on Thursday accused Kyiv of shifting the goalposts regarding
possible peace talks, saying it could not imagine engaging in public
negotiations with Ukraine. In a briefing call with reporters, Kremlin spokesman
Dmitry Peskov said the United States was capable of taking Russia's concerns
into account and could encourage Kyiv to return to the negotiating table if it
wanted to. Peskov also said Ukraine had changed its position on whether it even
wanted to negotiate with Moscow several times during the course of the
nine-month conflict and could not be relied on. "First they negotiate, then they
refuse to negotiate, then they pass a law that prohibits any kind of
negotiations, then they say they want negotiations, but public ones," Peskov
told reporters. "Therefore it's difficult to imagine public negotiations. ...
One thing is for sure: the Ukrainians do not want any negotiations," he added.
Peskov said in this context Moscow would continue what it calls a "special
military operation", and that missile strikes on targets across Ukraine were the
consequence of Kyiv not being willing to meet at the negotiating table.
Canadian commander says NATO battle group in Latvia could beat back Russian
attack
RIGA, Latvia/November 17, 2022
The Canadian officer commanding a NATO battle group in Latvia says Russian
forces would be routed if they dared launch an attack against Canadian troops
and their allies stationed in the Baltic country on Russia's western border. "I
think we'd win by a fair margin," Lt.-Col. Jesse van Eijk, head of the Enhanced
Forward Presence Latvia battle group, said in an interview Wednesday. The threat
is constant in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and on Tuesday
tensions mounted when a missile strike killed two people in Poland, another NATO
member. There were initially fears the missile had been fired by Russia, but
Poland said Wednesday it was probably launched by air defences in neighbouring
Ukraine. Van Eijk spoke to The Canadian Press in his modest office in a
temporary building at Camp Adazi, the battle group base in the middle of a
forest about a 45-minute drive from Riga, the Latvian capital. The small country
was part of the Russian empire and then the U.S.S.R., and it has twice had to
win independence, most recently in 1991. Just over 1,200 soldiers from 10
countries, including 700 from Canada, train at Camp Adazi as a unified combat
group defending Latvia. Van Eijk is convinced that his troops are better
prepared and more experienced than their potential adversaries.
"The expectation of that is changing," he said in reference to a vision of the
Russian army as one of the most imposing and best equipped in the world. "There
was an initial impression that the Russians would be faster, and they have
underperformed based on what they ... messaged they would be able to do in
Ukraine," he said. "So what the pace of that operation, if it were to come to
pass, looks like is really dependent on what ... the Russians would actually
throw at us."The commander said the soldiers under his command all had to
undergo rigorous national training and worked hard to be integrated into the
battle group. They are professional soldiers, he added, and their understanding
of tactics and optimal use of resources is superior to a Russian soldier's. Van
Eijk, who has been posted in Latvia for five months, says NATO has precise
information about the Russian forces on the other side of the Latvian border —
which lies just 200 kilometres from Camp Adazi — including their state of
readiness and even their daily activities.
He says Russia's war in Ukraine has reduced the threat level in Latvia. "The
amount of resources that the Russians have invested now in Ukraine, and that
they are losing in Ukraine, is reducing their ability to do something in this
theatre rapidly," he said. The Latvian army has reached the same conclusion,
noticing a weakening of the Russian land army bases in the region — in Pskov,
for example. The Russians nonetheless remain a threat, van Eijk said. "What
they're going to do in the future is really in President (Vladimir) Putin's
hands, I think, but the threat is very real," he said. The NATO battle group,
known as eFP Latvia, serves both as a dissuasion and a shield in the event of an
attack. It is larger than a regular Canadian battle group, "verging on too big,"
its commander said, and it has all the equipment it needs.
On Wednesday, soldiers from a number of countries, including Italy, Germany and
Spain, were training in a vast section of Latvian forest. The sound of heavy
artillery could be heard sporadically, and from afar, observers with binoculars
watched from a bunker. Other soldiers were in a tent practising to identify
targets — Russian combat vehicles — and describe their characteristics within a
minute. The eFP Latvia had held four training exercises in three months
involving the entire battle group, an effort van Eijk describes as "phenomenal."
Soldiers are rotated in and out every six months so they are not tired, he said.
He acknowledged that commanding a multinational group is a challenge but said it
is ultimately "a human business" of making sure everyone understands his intent.
The British Columbia native was previously deployed in Afghanistan and has spent
most of his career with the 1 Canadian Mechanized Brigade Group in Shilo, Man.
Asked what he misses most about Canada, he replied, "Being at home." That will
come soon, as he is due to return home in December when his Latvian deployment
ends.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 17, 2022.
Analysis: Have China and India shifted stance on Russia
war?
NUSA DUA, Indonesia (AP)/November 17, 2022
China and India, after months of refusing to condemn Russia’s war in Ukraine,
did not stand in the way of the release this week of a statement by the world’s
leading economies that strongly criticizes Moscow. Could this, at last, signal a
bold new policy change by Beijing and New Delhi to align themselves with what
the United States and its allies believe is the best way to end a war that has
brought death and misery to Ukraine and disrupted millions of lives as food and
energy prices soar and economies crack?
There's certainly an eagerness by a world weary of war to see it as the
beginning of a shift by the burgeoning global powers.
Look close enough, however, and there’s enough subtlety, not to mention spots of
vagueness, in both the official statement released at the end of the Group of 20
summit in Bali, Indonesia, and in actions from China and India themselves, to
raise questions about whether a real change is underway.
Their positions will become clearer in coming weeks, but for now both nations,
which have significant trade ties with Russia and have so far stopped short of
outright criticism of the war, may simply be looking out for their own interests
and keeping future options open.
Figuring out what exactly happened in Bali matters because there’s growing worry
that without political and diplomatic pressure by China and India, Russia will
be far less likely to end its war. The conflict in Ukraine loomed large over the
two-day summit on Bali, which was attended by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov. News early Wednesday of an explosion that rocked eastern Poland prompted
U.S. President Joe Biden to hastily arrange an emergency meeting with Group of
Seven and NATO members at the summit. The backroom wrangling at the G-20 over
how to address Russia’s invasion in its statement was “very, very tough,” summit
host Indonesian President Joko Widodo said. “Most members strongly condemned the
war in Ukraine and stressed it is causing immense human suffering and
exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy,” the statement said.
The less-than-universal language — “most members” — signals the presence of
dissent, as does an acknowledgement that “there were other views and different
assessments” and that the G-20 is “not the forum to resolve security issues.”
The final product, however, was seen by some as a strong rebuke of a war that
has killed thousands, heightened global security tensions and disrupted the
world economy.
The public statement used language from a March U.N. resolution that deplored
“in the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federation against
Ukraine” and demanded “its complete and unconditional withdrawal” from Ukrainian
territory.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the G-20 summit’s “surprisingly clear words”
on Ukraine “wouldn’t have been possible if important countries hadn’t helped us
to come together this way — that includes India and it also includes, for
example, South Africa.”
“This is something which shows that there are many in the world who don’t think
this war is right, who condemn it, even if they abstained in the votes at the
United Nations for various reasons,” Scholz said. “And I am sure that this is
one of the results of this summit: the Russian president stands almost alone in
the world with his policy.”John Kirton, director of the G-20 Research Group,
called it a “big breakthrough” and an “active shift” by China and India in which
they joined the “democratic side of the great immediate geopolitical divide.”
Privately, however, some diplomats were wary about declaring that China has
shifted its stance on Russia.
Chinese President Xi Jinping may have simply made a decision to not be seen as a
spoiler or outlier during face-to-face meetings with other leaders in Bali. The
statement also allows China to avoid going all-in with a Russia that is looking
more and more isolated as it increases attacks on civilians and civilian
infrastructure. What Beijing hasn’t done is change — or even publicly question —
its fundamental relations with Russia.
China has closely aligned its foreign policy with Russia in recent years, as
pipeline projects and natural gas sales have brought them closer economically.
It has refused to publicly criticize Russia’s aggression or even refer to it as
an invasion, while criticizing sanctions and accusing the United States and NATO
of provoking Putin, although it has warned against allowing the conflict to go
nuclear.
Just weeks before Moscow's invasion, the Russian and Chinese leaders met in
Beijing, where they signed a joint statement affirming that their bilateral
relationship had “no” limits.
It was unclear whether China pushed for the softening language in the G-20
statement acknowledging “other views and different assessments” and that the
G-20 is “not the forum to resolve security issues,” but Shi Yinhong, professor
of international relations at Beijing’s Renmin University, said it has pushed
for such phrases on other occasions.
For India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also avoided criticism of the
Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Modi, however, indicated for the first time in public India’s discomfort with
the attack when he met Putin in September. “I know that today’s era is not of
war,” Modi told Putin. That message "resonated very deeply across all the
delegations and helped to bridge the gap across different parties and
contributed to the successful outcome of the document” in Bali, Indian Foreign
Secretary Vinay Kwatra told reporters. Navdeep Suri, a retired Indian diplomat,
said he sees a subtle shift in India’s position in dealing with Russia. China,
however, may be “in a far more awkward position than India because China is the
one that promised unlimited support to Russia a few days before the invasion,”
Suri said. "China has (now) gone along with such tough language, including the
unconditional and complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine.” Dilip
Sinha, another retired Indian diplomat, noted that India continues to buy oil,
to trade with Russia and to abstain from U.N. resolutions critical of Russia.
"There is a feeling of bravado in India that it has its way. I don’t see any
change at all in India’s policy on Russia on the war in Ukraine,” Sinha said.
Some return to war-battered hub of Palestinian life in
Syria
Associated Press/November 17, 2022
Syria's largest Palestinian camp was once bustling with activity: It was crowded
with mini-buses and packed with shops hawking falafel, shawarma and knafeh
nabulsieh — a sweet concoction of cheese and phyllo dough.
Kids played soccer and brandished plastic guns until men with real guns came in
when Syria descended into civil war. Over the past decade, fighting devastated
communities across the country, including the Yarmouk camp, on the outskirts of
the capital of Damascus. Today, Yarmouk's streets are still piled with rubble.
Scattered Palestinian flags fly from mostly abandoned houses, the only reminder
that this was once a major political and cultural center of the Palestinian
refugee diaspora. Two years ago, Syrian authorities began allowing former
Yarmouk residents who could prove home ownership and pass a security check to
come back. But so far, few have returned. Many others have been deterred by fear
they could be arrested or conscripted by force. Others no longer have houses to
come back to. Still, with the fighting having subsided in much of Syria, some
want to see what's left of their homes. Earlier this month, the government
opened up Yarmouk for a rare visit by journalists to highlight its push for
returnees. The occasion: the launch of a new community center, built by a
non-government organization. One of those who have returned is Mohamed Youssef
Jamil. Originally from the Palestinian village of Lubya, west of the city of
Tiberias in present-day Israel, he had lived in Yarmouk since 1960. He raised
three sons in the camp, before Syria's war broke out. The 80-year-old came back
a year and a half ago, with government approval to repair his damaged house. Of
the 30 or 40 families who used to live on his street, there are now four. Many
buildings that were not leveled by bombs were looted, stripped of windows,
electric wiring — even faucets. "I'm staying here to guard it from thieves," he
said of his home. Nearby, the right half of Mohamed Taher's house has collapsed,
while he is repairing the still-standing left half. "There is no electricity,"
the 55-year-old said, though in some parts of the camp there is water and the
sewer system works. Yarmouk was built in 1957 as a Palestinian refugee camp but
grew into a vibrant suburb that also attracted working-class Syrians. Before the
2011 uprising turned civil war, some 1.2 million people lived in Yarmouk,
including 160,000 Palestinians, according to the U.N. agency for Palestinian
refugees, or UNRWA. As of June, some 4,000 people returned to Yarmouk, UNRWA
said, while another 8,000 families received permission to return over the
summer. The returnees struggle with a "lack of basic services, limited
transportation, and largely destroyed public infrastructure," UNRWA said. Some
live in houses without doors or windows.
The U.N. agency said returns to Yarmouk increased, in part, because the camp
offered free housing. At a recent press conference, UNRWA chief Philippe
Lazzarini said an increasing number of Palestinian refugees in Syria are
"basically going back into rubble just because they cannot afford anymore to
live where they were."In the past, Palestinian factions in Syria sometimes had a
complicated relationship with Syrian authorities. Former Syrian President Hafez
Assad and Palestinian Liberation Organization leader Yasser Arafat were bitter
adversaries.
However, Palestinian refugees lived in relative comfort in Syria, with greater
socioeconomic and civil rights than those in neighboring Lebanon. Yarmouk's
Palestinian factions tried to remain neutral as Syria's civil war broke out, but
by late 2012, the camp was pulled into the conflict and different factions took
opposing sides in the war. The militant group Hamas backed the Syrian the
opposition while others, like the Popular Front for the Liberation of
Palestine–General Command, fought on the Syrian government's side. In 2013,
Yarmouk became the target of a devastating siege by government forces. In 2015,
it was taken over by the extremist Islamic State group. A government offensive
retook the camp in 2018, emptying it of remaining inhabitants. Sari Hanafi, a
professor of sociology at the American University of Beirut who grew up in
Yarmouk, said those returning are doing so because of "absolute necessity."
"The others who don't return — it's because it's an unlivable place," he said. A
young man from Yarmouk living in a Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon agrees.
With Syrian President Bashar Assad's government still firmly in place, he said
that if he went back, he "would always be living in anxiety and without
security.""Someone who returns to the camp, or to Syria in general, is no longer
thinking, 'How much freedom will I have?' He is thinking, 'I just want a house
to live in,'" he said, speaking on condition of anonymity, fearing for the
safety of his relatives back in Syria.
At the community center's opening, the governor of Damascus, Mohamed Tarek
Kreishati, promised to clear the rubble and restore utilities and public
transportation. But there's a long way to go to convince people to go back, said
Mahmoud Zaghmout from the London-based Action Group for Palestinians of Syria,
aligned with the Syrian opposition. Yarmouk lacks "hospitals, bakeries, gas
distribution centers and basic consumer and food items," Zaghmout said. There
are those who hope Yarmouk will be restored to its past glory, like Suheil
Natour, a Lebanon-based researcher and member of the leftist Democratic Front
for the Liberation of Palestine. He pointed to Lebanon's Palestinian refugee
camp Ein el-Hilweh, which was razed by Israeli forces in 1982 and later rebuilt.
Yarmouk can also be "one day a very flourishing symbol of revival of the
Palestinian refugees," he said. Others are skeptical. Samih Mahmoud, 24, who
grew up in Yarmouk but now lives in Lebanon, said not much remains of the place
he remembered. He said he's not attached to the buildings and streets of Yarmouk.
"I'm attached to the people, to the food, to the atmosphere of the camp," he
said. "And all of that is gone."
S. Korea's leader discusses megaprojects with Saudi prince
Associated Press/November 17, 2022
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol hoped for greater cooperation with Saudi
Arabia — including on its $500 billion futuristic desert city project — as he
met the kingdom's powerful crown prince Thursday, Seoul officials said. Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Salman flew to South Korea earlier Thursday for talks with
Yoon and business tycoons in his first visit to South Korea since June 2019.
During talks attended by senior officials from both countries, Yoon said he
hopes that South Korean companies will participate in megaprojects in Saudi
Arabia such as Neom, a futuristic, carbon-free city planned along the kingdom's
Red Sea coast, Yoon's office in a statement. Yoon also wanted the two countries
to cooperate on defense industries and the development of hydrogen and other new
energies and promote tourism and cultural exchanges, the statement said. Prince
Mohammed said he wants to drastically expand bilateral cooperation on the areas
of infrastructure construction, energy and defense industries, Yoon's office
said. The prince's trip to South Korea spawned hopes that South Korean
companies' active participations in the Neom city project would greatly
invigorate the country's economy, like a previous construction boom in the
Middle East backed up South Korea's rapid economic rise in the 1970s. "There are
political and geopolitical risks in Middle East and it's true that there are
questions about the Neom city project. … But the Neom city can still be a new
breakthrough for the South Korean economy," the Maeil Business newspaper said
Wednesday in an editorial. "The (South Korean) government must support a
possible second Middle East boom by reforming regulations."The Neom project
envisions flying cars and a 170-kilometer (105-mile) -long, zero-carbon
emissions city that's entirely enclosed and powered by Artificial Intelligence.
In 2017, when Prince Mohammed announced plans to build the city, he said that
"this will be a place for the dreamers of the world." Some observers say Prince
Mohammed hopes the city will become a skyline-studded Saudi version of Dubai
that will offer the kingdom jobs and cement a future beyond its vast crude oil
reserves. It also would reframe a rule so far colored by the killing of
Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi and the kingdom's ongoing intervention
in the war in Yemen.
"Some people say the idea of the Neom city project is too utopian and doubt
whether it can be really established," said Paik Seunghoon, principal researcher
at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies
in Seoul. "But it's one of the projects that Prince (Mohammed) is pushing hard
so that he will try to have (the Neom project) running to some extent." During
the prince's visit, South Korean companies signed more than 20 memorandums of
understanding with their Saudi counterparts, non-binding contracts that are
mostly about South Korean investments in Saudi Arabia, according to South Korean
officials. Paik said Saudi Arabia has signed similar non-binding deals with many
other foreign companies and that the South Korean announcement Thursday lacked
substance. But he still viewed them as a meaningful first step in the two
countries' cooperation in such projects.
"I highly appraise (today's development). It's like we just did our first
shoveling" in a construction project, Paik said. "Most importantly, the leaders
of the two countries met and agreed to push forward with something. And this
shouldn't be the end."
Joo Won, deputy director at the Seoul-based Hyundai Research Institute, noted
that there have been "more negative views toward the project" than positive
ones. "It's a matter of financial resources. Saudi Arabia needs money to build
such a city. During the period of high oil prices like these days, they can
afford it. But oil prices would go down one day and the project could stop," Joo
said.
Netanyahu says Turkey's Erdogan agrees to reset ties
Associated Press/November 17, 2022
Israel and Turkey agreed to a fresh start in ties Thursday, according to former
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office. Relations between the former
allies became icy under Netanyahu's term in office. He is now expected to return
to power soon as head of Israel's most right-wing government ever.
Relations were already on the mend under outgoing Prime Minister Yair Lapid who
met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in New York in September, the
first meeting between the countries' leaders in 14 years. But Erdogan's
relations with Israel under Netanyahu were particularly frosty, especially over
recurring wars against Gaza's militant Hamas rulers and the 2010 Gaza flotilla
raid by the Israeli military, also during Netanyahu's rule. Erdogan had shown a
willingness for warmer ties since Netanyahu was ousted after 12 consecutive
years in power last year. Thursday's statement signaled that the ties could
continue to improve under Netanyahu. Netanyahu's office said they vowed to
cooperate and start afresh in a phone call between the two leaders Thursday.
Netanyahu is in the process of trying to form a government following national
elections earlier this month. "The two leaders agreed to work together to launch
a new era in ties between Turkey and Israel," according to a statement from
Netanyahu's office. There was no immediate comment from Erdogan's office. Over
years of strained relations, Erdogan has been an outspoken critic of Israeli
policy toward the Palestinians. Israel, in turn, has objected to Turkey's
embrace of Hamas. The once-close regional allies withdrew their respective
ambassadors in 2010, after Israeli forces stormed a Gaza-bound flotilla carrying
humanitarian aid for Palestinians that broke an Israeli blockade. The incident
resulted in the deaths of nine Turkish activists. But following Israeli
President Isaac Herzog's state visit to Turkey in March and other signs of a
thaw, the two countries agreed to exchange ambassadors. They still share various
strategic interests, including containing Iran.
At least 21 killed, several others hurt in Gaza Strip
fire
Reuters/November 17, 2022
GAZA: At least 21 people were killed and several others injured when a fire
broke out in a building where residents attended a party in the Gaza Strip,
health and civil emergency officials said on Thursday. It took fire fighters
more than an hour to get control of the massive flames that burst through the
top floor of a four-story residential building in the densely-populated Jabalia
refugee camp in northern Gaza Strip. Ambulances rushed several injured people to
local hospitals, and Israel, which together with Egypt maintains a blockade on
Gaza, said it would allow in those in need of medical treatment. Gaza’s Interior
Ministry said an initial investigation revealed that large amounts of gasoline
had been stored at the site, fueling the blaze that quickly engulfed the
building. Witnesses said they could hear screaming but they could not help those
inside because of the intensity of the fire. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas
called it a national tragedy and said there would be a day of mourning. Hussein
Al-Sheikh, secretary-general of the executive committee of the Palestine
Liberation Organization (PLO), said in a statement that the Palestinian
Authority urged Israel to open the Erez crossing with Gaza to transport serious
cases in order to treat them outside the enclave if necessary.“The President
gave instructions to provide all forms of medical and other assistance
urgently,” Sheikh said on Twitter. Tor Wennesland, the United Nations’ Middle
East peace envoy expressed “heartfelt condolences” to the families of those who
died in the incident, in a post on Twitter. Jabalia is one of eight refugee
camps in Gaza, home to 2.3 million people and one of the world’s most densely
populated areas.
Macron says World Cup in Qatar 'should not be politicized'
Associated Press/November 17, 2022
French President Emmanuel Macron said Thursday that "sports should not be
politicized," days after it was announced — to criticism — that he would attend
the World Cup in Qatar if France reaches the semifinals. Speaking in Bangkok,
Macron said issues about Qatar's human rights record and the environment were
"questions you have to ask yourself when you award the event." Qatar won the
hosting rights for this year's tournament in a FIFA vote in 2010. The World Cup
has sparked multiple controversies — from the living conditions of migrant
workers to the impact on the environment of air-conditioned stadiums and the
place of LGBTQ people, women and minorities. The first World Cup to be held in
an Arab country opens on Sunday. On Monday, the presidential Elysee said Macron
will go to the Qatar if the country's national team reaches the semifinals,
specifying that the French president "wrote them a message" to this effect. Last
month, the city of Paris said it will not broadcast World Cup matches on giant
screens in public fan zones amid concerns about Qatar's human rights record. It
follows similar moves by other French cities, despite France being the defending
champion.
Second fire breaks out in Baghdad airport, prompting
probe
Associated Press/November 17, 2022
A fire broke out in Baghdad's international airport Thursday for a second time
in 48 hours, prompting Iraqi authorities to open an investigation. Prime
Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani dismissed the head of the Iraqi Civil Aviation
Authority over the incidents, according to a statement from his office.
The fire broke out at dawn on the ground floor of the airport's VIP hall and
caused some material damage but no human losses, according to an Iraqi military
statement. The fire was put out by 16 civil defense brigades, according to the
statement. Flights continued as scheduled. The civil defense requested that an
investigation be launched to determine the cause of the fire. Al-Sudani, who
assumed the premiership on Oct. 28, went to the scene of the blaze and then held
meetings with top officials and ordered a review into the airport's security
measures. He also ordered a legal committee to identify individuals responsible
for the airport's fire suppression system which has not been functioning since
2013, the statement from his office said. An airport official said the fire had
started in a section of the VIP hall reserved for the premier and spread to the
hall from there. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not
authorized to brief the media about the ongoing investigation. Thursday's fire
was the second to break out in the span of a week at the airport. On Tuesday, a
fire broke out in its departure hall that temporarily suspended flights. Since
al-Sudani assumed power, an American living in Baghdad was shot and killed and
Iran has launched missile attacks into the country's north targeting Kurdish
opposition groups.
GOP wins slim House majority, complicating ambitious
agenda
Associated Press/November 17, 2022
Republicans won control of the U.S. House on Wednesday, returning the party to
power in Washington and giving conservatives leverage to blunt President Joe
Biden's agenda and spur a flurry of investigations. But a threadbare majority
will pose immediate challenges for GOP leaders and complicate the party's
ability to govern. More than a week after Election Day, Republicans secured the
218th seat needed to flip the House from Democratic control. The full scope of
the party's majority may not be clear for several more days — or weeks — as
votes in competitive races are still being counted.
But they are on track to cobble together what could be the party's narrowest
majority of the 21st century, rivaling 2001, when Republicans had just a
nine-seat majority, 221-212 with two independents. That's far short of the
sweeping victory the GOP predicted going into this year's midterm elections,
when the party hoped to reset the agenda on Capitol Hill by capitalizing on
economic challenges and Biden's lagging popularity. Instead, Democrats showed
surprising resilience, holding on to moderate, suburban districts from Virginia
to Minnesota and Kansas. The results could complicate House GOP leader Kevin
McCarthy's plans to become speaker as some conservative members have questioned
whether to back him or have imposed conditions for their support. McCarthy, R-Calif.,
celebrated his party having "officially flipped" the House on Twitter on
Wednesday night, writing, "Americans are ready for a new direction, and House
Republicans are ready to deliver."Current House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.,
released a statement Wednesday night saying, "In the next Congress, House
Democrats will continue to play a leading role in supporting President Biden's
agenda — with strong leverage over a scant Republican majority."Biden
congratulated McCarthy, saying he is "ready to work with House Republicans to
deliver results for working families.""Last week's elections demonstrated the
strength and resilience of American democracy. There was a strong rejection of
election deniers, political violence, and intimidation," Biden said in a
statement. "There was an emphatic statement that, in America, the will of the
people prevails." He added, that "the future is too promising to be trapped in
political warfare."
The narrow margins have upended Republican politics and prompted finger-pointing
about what went wrong. Some in the GOP have blamed Donald Trump for the
worse-than-expected outcome. The former president, who announced his third White
House bid Tuesday, lifted candidates during this year's Republican primaries who
often questioned the results of the 2020 election or downplayed the mob attack
on the U.S. Capitol last year. Many of those struggled to win during the general
election. Despite the GOP's underwhelming showing, the party will still have
notable power. Republicans will take control of key committees, giving them the
ability to shape legislation and launch probes of Biden, his family and his
administration. There's particular interest in investigating the overseas
business dealings of the president's son Hunter Biden. Some of the most
conservative lawmakers have raised the prospect of impeaching Biden, though that
will be much harder for the party to accomplish with a tight majority.
Any legislation that emerges from the House could face steep odds in the Senate,
where Democrats won the barest of majorities Saturday. Both parties are looking
to a Dec. 6 Senate runoff in Georgia as a last chance to pad their ranks.
With such a potentially slim House majority, there's also potential for
legislative chaos. The dynamic essentially gives an individual member enormous
sway over shaping what happens in the chamber. That could lead to particularly
tricky circumstances for GOP leaders as they try to win support for must-pass
measures that keep the government funded or raise the debt ceiling. The GOP's
failure to notch more wins — they needed a net gain of five seats to take the
majority — was especially surprising because the party went into the election
benefiting from congressional maps that were redrawn by Republican legislatures.
History was also on Republicans' side: The party that holds the White House had
lost congressional seats during virtually every new president's first midterm of
the modern era.
The new majority will usher in a new group of leaders in Washington. If elected
to succeed Pelosi in the top post, McCarthy would lead what will likely be a
rowdy conference of House Republicans, most of whom are aligned with Trump's
bare-knuckle brand of politics. Many Republicans in the incoming Congress
rejected the results of the 2020 presidential election, even though claims of
widespread fraud were refuted by courts, elections officials and Trump's own
attorney general.
McCarthy won the nomination for House speaker on Tuesday, with a formal vote to
come when the new Congress convenes in January. "I'm proud to announce the era
of one-party Democrat rule in Washington is over," McCarthy said after winning
the nomination. Republican candidates pledged on the campaign trail to cut taxes
and tighten border security. GOP lawmakers also could withhold aid to Ukraine as
it fights a war with Russia or use the threat of defaulting on the nation's debt
as leverage to extract cuts from social spending and entitlements — though all
such pursuits will be tougher given how small the GOP majority may end up being.
As a senator and then vice president, Biden spent a career crafting legislative
compromises with Republicans. But as president, he was clear about what he
viewed as the threats posed by the current Republican Party.
Biden said the midterms show voters want Democrats and Republicans to find ways
to cooperate and govern in a bipartisan manner, but also noted that Republicans
didn't achieve the electoral surge they'd been betting on and vowed, "I'm not
going to change anything in any fundamental way."
AP VoteCast, a broad survey of the national electorate, showed that high
inflation and concerns about the fragility of democracy had heavily influenced
voters. Half of voters said inflation factored significantly, with groceries,
gasoline, housing, food and other costs that have shot up in the past year.
Slightly fewer — 44% — said the future of democracy was their primary
consideration. Counter to the GOP's expectations, Biden didn't entirely shoulder
the blame for inflation, with close to half of voters saying the
higher-than-usual prices were more because of factors outside his control. And
despite the president bearing criticism from a pessimistic electorate, some of
those voters backed Democratic candidates. Democrats also likely benefited from
anger over the Supreme Court overturning the landmark Roe v. Wade decision
cementing a woman's constitutional right to an abortion. Voters in Michigan
voted to amend their state constitution to protect abortion rights while far
more reliably Republican Kentucky rejected a constitutional amendment declaring
no right to an abortion. Overall, 7 in 10 voters said the high court's ruling
overturning the 1973 decision enshrining abortion rights was an important factor
in their midterm decisions. VoteCast also showed the reversal was broadly
unpopular. About 6 in 10 say they are angry or dissatisfied by it. And roughly 6
in 10 say they favor a law guaranteeing access to legal abortion nationwide.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on November
17-18/2022
كون كوغلين من معهد كايتستون: حان الوقت لأن يواجه حلف
الناتو نظام إيران الملالي والإرهابي
It Is Time for NATO to Confront Iran
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/November 17/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/113412/con-coughlin-gatestone-institute-it-is-time-for-nato-to-confront-iran-%d9%83%d9%88%d9%86-%d9%83%d9%88%d8%ba%d9%84%d9%8a%d9%86-%d9%85%d9%86-%d9%85%d8%b9%d9%87%d8%af-%d9%83%d8%a7%d9%8a%d8%aa%d8%b3/
For decades Tehran has consistently lied about the true extent of
its nuclear ambitions, so it should come as no surprise that Iran's instinctive
response when confronted about its military support for Russia has been to issue
a denial.
Iran's belated admission that it is actively supporting the Russian war effort
is certainly an alarming development, one that completely destroys the argument
that Iran's malign activities are solely confined to the Middle East.
The implications of Iran's deepening involvement in the Ukraine conflict can no
longer be ignored, as they now constitute a direct threat to European security,
a development that Nato leaders need to take on board as a matter of urgency.
Nato has already demonstrated a welcome display of unity in providing vital
military support for Ukraine in its battle to defeat Russian aggression. Nato
leaders must now take similar measures to support all those states, whether they
are in Europe or the Middle East, who want to protect themselves against Iran's
intimidating conduct.
Iran's belated admission that it is actively supporting the Russian war effort
is certainly an alarming development, one that completely destroys the argument
that Iran's malign activities are solely confined to the Middle East. Pictured:
An Iranian-made Shahed-136 suicide drone, deployed by the Russian military,
which was shot down by Ukrainian forces near the town of Kupiansk, Ukraine.
Iran's belated admission that it has provided Russia with sophisticated drones
to boost its war effort in Ukraine should serve as a wake-up call to all those
Western policymakers who claim the threat posed by Tehran's aggressive regime is
only limited to the Middle East region.
Despite credible reports that Russian forces have been deploying Iranian-made
drones to launch attacks against Ukraine's critical infrastructure, inflicting
electricity and water shortages on the country's civilian population, Tehran has
consistently denied the weapons originated from Iran.
Only last month, Iran's representative to the United Nations strongly denied
claims that Iranian drones were responsible for inflicting misery on the
Ukrainian people, and insisted that Iran's primary objective was to achieve a
peaceful resolution of the conflict.
"Iran has consistently advocated for peace and the immediate end to the conflict
in Ukraine," Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani, permanent representative of the
Islamic Republic of Iran to the United Nations, told reporters in mid-October,
adding that the claims that Iranian weapons were being used were "unfounded and
unsubstantiated" and were just part of a "disinformation" campaign the West was
mounting against his country.
It was only this month that Tehran finally conceded that it had supplied drones
to Russia, on this occasion insisting that the weapons had been sent to Russia
prior to Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to launch his unprovoked
invasion of Ukraine last February.
The admission that Iran is equipping Russia with drones was made by Iranian
Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian who, responding to mounting evidence
of the Iranian-made weapons being used in Ukraine, said Tehran had provided
Moscow with a "limited number of drones" months before the war began in Ukraine.
Amir-Abdollahian also suggested that Iran did not support their use in the
Ukraine conflict, offering the ludicrous assertion that if they were being used
in Ukraine, Tehran "will not be indifferent to it." He went on to say that if
the Ukrainians had any evidence that Iranian drones were being used in the
conflict, it should be sent to Tehran where "we will take into account their
evidence."
Even this Iranian admission was dismissed as a lie by Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky. Responding to Iran's admission, he said:
"They decided to admit that they did supply drones for Russian terror. But even
in this confession they lie.... We shoot down at least 10 Iranian drones every
day, and the Iranian regime claims that it allegedly gave little, and even
before the start of a full-scale invasion."
The Iranian admission was also dismissed by US Special Envoy for Iran Robert
Malley, who tweeted:
"Iran didn't give a limited number of drones before the war. They transferred
dozens just this summer & have military personnel in occupied Ukraine helping
Russia use them against Ukrainian civilians. Confronted with evidence, they need
a new policy, not a new story."
Iran is no stranger to telling bare-faced lies. For decades Tehran has
consistently lied about the true extent of its nuclear ambitions, so it should
come as no surprise that Iran's instinctive response when confronted about its
military support for Russia has been to issue a denial.
Moreover, that Tehran has been caught lying about its involvement in the Ukraine
conflict inevitably raises suspicions that its support for Moscow is far broader
than it is prepared to admit. Apart from supplying drones, there are credible
reports that Tehran has agreed to supply Russia with ballistic missiles.
Iran's belated admission that it is actively supporting the Russian war effort
is certainly an alarming development, one that completely destroys the argument
that Iran's malign activities are solely confined to the Middle East.
It means that Iran is fully committed to supporting military action in Europe,
which represents a significant escalation in the threat Iran poses to global
security, one that Western policymakers can no longer ignore.
There is also disturbing evidence that Iran is closely monitoring the West's
military support for Kyiv to enhance its own military capabilities, after it
emerged that Russia flew a selection of American and British weapons to Iran in
August as part of the deepening defence cooperation pact between Moscow and
Tehran.
According to Sky News, a Russian military aircraft secretly transported a US
Javelin anti-tank missile, a Stinger anti-aircraft missile and a British NLAW
anti-tank missile to an airport in Tehran in the early hours of 20 August. The
weapons, which were part of a shipment of US and UK military equipment intended
for the Ukrainian military that "fell into Russian hands", have now been handed
over to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps amid fears that it will enable
Iran to study Western military technology and copy it.
The implications of Iran's deepening involvement in the Ukraine conflict can no
longer be ignored, as they now constitute a direct threat to European security,
a development that Nato leaders need to take on board as a matter of urgency.
Nato has already demonstrated a welcome display of unity in providing vital
military support for Ukraine in its battle to defeat Russian aggression. Nato
leaders must now take similar measures to support all those states, whether they
are in Europe or the Middle East, who want to protect themselves against Iran's
intimidating conduct.
*Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a
Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Economic gloom ensures Sunak appears electorally doomed
Andrew Hammond/Arab News/November 17, 2022
UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt may have pledged not to return the UK to the financial
austerity of the years from 2010 to 2019, but he announced on Thursday
collective tax rises and spending cuts of £55 billion ($64 billion).
Hunt was appointed to the Treasury last month following the debacle of the Truss
government’s emergency fiscal statement in September. That so-called mini-budget
caused major economic and political problems for both then-Chancellor Kwasi
Kwarteng and then-Prime Minister Liz Truss, with both of them forced out of
office in October.
The political challenge that Hunt and new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak have to
contend with is the loss of trust in the Conservative Party since the
mini-budget, which capped off a difficult period for the party under Truss and
her predecessor Boris Johnson. No UK government in the postwar era that has
presided over a domestic or international fiscal or wider financial crisis, such
as that of this autumn, has survived at the ballot box at the next election.
Take the example of the “Black Wednesday” crisis of September 1992, which dealt
a significant blow to then-Prime Minister John Major. The UK government was
forced to withdraw sterling from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, a
precursor to today’s European single currency, after a failed attempt to keep
its exchange rate above the lower limit required for participation. Even though
the economy improved over the next five years, the Conservative Party suffered a
landslide election defeat in 1997 and did not return to power until 2010.
This historical context underlines how difficult it will be for Sunak to win the
next general election, which would represent a fifth straight term of office for
his party. Instead, polls indicate a growing possibility that the opposition
Labour Party will prevail as the largest single party in the House of Commons.
It is in this very challenging political context that Hunt faces some very
difficult economic choices. The UK economy appears weak and data released last
week shows that it shrank by 0.2 percent in the third quarter of 2022, setting
the nation on course for its quickest return to recession since 1975, with the
economy having only come out of its last recession eight quarters earlier (in
the second quarter of 2020).
The poor predicament of the economy reflects, in large part, the legacy of
policy decisions taken by previous Conservative governments. The poor
predicament of the economy reflects, in large part, the legacy of policy
decisions taken by previous Conservative governments. This includes not just
September’s emergency budget debacle, but also the specific post-Brexit economic
model that has been adopted since 2016, which even leading Brexiteers like Lord
Wolfson, a business CEO and Conservative life peer, have disowned in recent
days.
This point was picked up on Monday by Michael Saunders, who left the Bank of
England’s Monetary Policy Committee over the summer, when he asserted that
Brexit has “permanently damaged” the UK economy and is one of the key reasons
why the nation is now entering a new period of austerity, with the need for tax
rises and spending cuts.
It is perhaps no coincidence that support within the UK population for the
country rejoining the EU has been growing steadily over the past year, with one
recent poll suggesting 57 percent are in favor of rejoining. This figure is the
highest since before the referendum on EU membership in 2016.
However, with Labour having ruled out rejoining the EU, it is unlikely this will
happen in the 2020s, or indeed in this political generation. Instead, the focus
of the leading opposition party is much more about making Brexit work better for
the UK, given the mess the Conservatives have made of it.
In a key speech this summer, Labour leader Keir Starmer set out a plan and
pledged he would “deliver on the opportunities the United Kingdom has, sort out
the poor EU withdrawal deal Boris Johnson signed, and end the UK’s Brexit
divisions once and for all.”Starmer argued that making Brexit work is essential
because “you cannot move forward or grow the country or deliver change or win
back the trust of those who have lost faith in politics if we’re constantly
focused on the arguments of the past.” Rather than seeking EU membership, he
stressed that the country must invest much more in British people and places to
try to deliver on the potential the country has, while taking advantage of new
freedoms, such as the ability to cut tax on energy bills.
All of this highlights what might be a significant shift that is underway in UK
politics. After more than a dozen years of Conservative rule, the political
pendulum appears to be moving away from the party in a way that may
significantly reshape British politics for the remainder of the decade.
Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
Iran’s economic control is its hidden power in Syria
Ghassan Ibrahim/Arab News/November 17, 2022
Iran entered the Syrian war in its early days without hesitation, based on the
mistaken belief that the conflict would not last long. Tehran has since spent
tens of billions of dollars on preventing the Assad regime from collapsing,
leaving it in financial difficulties due to the cost of its military presence in
Syria.
So, with the shift in the balance of power in the Syrian war in favor of Bashar
Assad and the emergence of Russia at various levels (military, political and
economic), Tehran began to seek its share of the “Syrian pie.” This began with
its focus on economic hegemony in Syria and consideration of what had been
militarily provided to the Syrian regime and what needed to be paid for in
economic privileges.
When Iranian militias helped the Syrian regime recapture Rif Dimashq in the
Damascus suburbs, Ghouta and the entire area of the capital city, they
confiscated homes and lands from their owners under the pretext of
reconstruction. Later, it turned out that this action was also related to
organizing accommodation for Iranian militia members and their families, in
addition to the financial benefits that these lands and properties brought. The
excuse of reconstruction was a way to promote Iranian projects in Syria at the
highest levels.
Last month, Syrian Prime Minister Hussein Arnous announced that he would welcome
Iranian companies seeking to partner with economic institutions in Syria, under
the pretext of serving the reconstruction process and carrying out investment
projects.
The Syrian regime does not refuse any request from Iran, especially when it
comes to its economic expansion in Syria. During a recent visit to Damascus by
the Iranian minister of roads and urban construction, contracts were signed in
the fields of transport, investment, petroleum products and infrastructure.
The Syrian regime does not refuse any request from Iran, especially when it
comes to its economic expansion
Iranian economic expansion in Syria means giving Tehran a blank check to
exercise control after the war, which means long-term influence in Syria, even
without the need for a military presence.
However, Iran’s growing economic influence does not sit well with some Syrian
businessmen, with many migrating and relocating their investments to neighboring
countries. Despite this, some of them have agreed to cooperate with the Iranians
on economic projects that were also of a political nature.
Iran has tried to expand its network of contacts by using Syrian businessmen in
areas beyond the commercial and economic sectors. These businessmen have become
Iran's “hidden army” in Syria, ensuring that it will maintain control over the
country in the future.
But Iran is not able to freely exploit the Syrian economy, as Russia is also
present and wants to take advantage of the country’s economic potential,
especially its natural resources and strategic location.
A public dispute between the two sides over Syria’s resources has surfaced in
recent years. When Iranian militias were advancing to take over phosphate mines
near Palmyra, the Syrian regime signed contracts with Russia and Serbia related
to mines and natural resources. These contracts allocated 70 percent of shares
to Russian and Serbian companies, leaving Syria only a 30 percent stake in its
own mines and natural resources.
It is worth noting that the agreements signed by the Syrian regime with Iran
similarly served Tehran more than Damascus. But Iran did not hide its
dissatisfaction with the contracts signed by the regime with Russia and
continued to extract Syrian phosphates without any agreements, taking advantage
of the presence of its militias in these areas. The territories occupied by
Iranian militias are de facto considered by them as their own, even without any
formal consent.
Another case occurred in Latakia, when Iran tried to sign an agreement with the
Syrian regime to manage the port and secure a trade route from Tehran to the
Mediterranean. Russia managed to sabotage the deal and apparently gave Israel a
green light to attack the Iranian militia in the port. The Israeli strike last
December was a stern message to prevent any Iranian presence on the
Mediterranean.
Soon after the strike, Russia arranged the signing of a cooperation agreement
between Assad and the government of Crimea regarding the management of the
Syrian port.
Today, Iran is preparing to take over Syria’s electricity sector. Assad this
month issued a decree officially announcing the privatization of the energy
sector, allowing private companies to produce and sell electricity to Syrian
citizens. Many experts believe this decree will open the door for Iran to break
into Syria’s electricity sector and export electricity to neighboring countries
through its own companies and business allies.
Russia may try to hinder Iran’s economic interests in Syria, but Tehran is able
to settle for the tiniest crumbs that Moscow overlooks to secure the biggest
possible slice of the Syrian pie. What is certain, when it comes to Iran’s
economic goals, is that its partnership with the Syrian regime does not serve
the interests of ordinary people, but primarily its own financial needs and its
ever-growing influence in Syria.
Iran’s economic control in Syria is a means to achieve what can no longer be
achieved militarily or politically. It is a hidden power in a country whose
leader is powerless, does not care about the interests of the people, and cannot
say no.
Ghassan Ibrahim is a British-Syrian journalist and researcher on issues
regarding the Middle East, most notably Syria, Iran and Turkey. He can be
reached at www.ghassanibrahim.com.
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not
necessarily reflect Arab News' point of view
This is no time to ease policy toward the Iranian regime
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/November 17, 2022
The ongoing and persistent protests in Iran seem to have a different character
in comparison to previous waves of demonstrations. The Iranian people,
particularly women and the younger generation, have refused to halt their
resistance movement for more than two months now, with crowds continuing to
chant “death to the dictator,” “death to (Supreme Leader Ali) Khamenei,” and
“this year is a year of blood, Seyyed Ali (Khamenei) will be gone.”
As a result, one of the most ineffective and counterproductive policies that the
US and the EU can pursue is to ease sanctions and pressure on the Iranian regime
through deals such as reviving the nuclear agreement or by doing trade and
conducting business agreements.
Such an uninformed approach would send the wrong message to the Iranian people:
that the West does not care and does not have any interest in standing with the
Iranians and their aspirations for establishing a democratic system of
governance, rule of law and justice, the freedoms of speech, press and assembly,
and promoting women’s and human rights. The West must avoid engaging in any
negotiations with the Iranian regime that can lead to economic, financial or
political benefits to the theocratic establishment.
In other words, this is not the time to sit down at the same table as the
Iranian leaders and shake hands, as it would only legitimize their brutal
crackdown and suppression of the Iranian people. As Amnesty International’s
regional director Heba Morayef pointed out last month: “The Iranian authorities’
reckless and unlawful use of firearms against protesters, including live
ammunition, reveals yet again the tragically high cost of international
inaction. All member states of the UN Human Rights Council must take decisive
action now and immediately convene a special session on Iran in order to prevent
further loss of life. Failure to act decisively will only embolden the Iranian
authorities to further crack down against mourners and protesters.”
On the other hand, one of the most effective tools that the West could employ is
to immediately start the process of restoring UN sanctions against the Islamic
Republic. This can only be done through the nuclear deal platform. When the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, aka the Iran nuclear deal, was struck in
2015, the signatories agreed to lift the UN sanctions against Tehran as a reward
for the ruling clerics’ promise to restrict their nuclear activities and comply
with the terms of the deal.
The West must avoid engaging in any negotiations that can lead to economic,
financial or political benefits to the theocratic establishment
The sanctions were significant, as they threatened the hold on power of the
ruling clergy and ultimately brought the Iranian leaders to the negotiating
table between 2013 and 2015. One of the rounds of sanctions came through UN
Security Council Resolution 1929, which tightened the grip on Iran’s financial
dealings and banned Iran from buying heavy weapons. Another round of sanctions,
UNSC Resolution 1803, imposed restrictions on Iranian bank transactions and
called on countries to inspect Iranian ships and cargo planes where there were
reasonable grounds to believe that the regime was smuggling prohibited products.
Reimposing these sanctions would send a strong message to the protesters that
the international community stands with them. There is a provision within UNSC
Resolution 2231 that would allow such a course of action. In order to invoke
this provision, “a JCPOA participant state” can notify the UNSC that there has
been a “significant non-performance of commitments under the JCPOA.”
According to this resolution, any signatory party can trigger a 30-day countdown
to a “snapback” that would restore all UN sanctions on Iran, including an arms
embargo, if Tehran is found to be failing to meet its obligations. Other members
cannot veto such a move. In other words, the US, Germany, France or the UK could
trigger the snapback provisions of the nuclear deal. Once this has been done,
the UNSC would have 30 days to restore sanctions against the Iranian regime.
But since the US is no longer considered a JCPOA participant state because the
Trump administration pulled it out of the deal, Washington ought to persuade one
of its European allies that it is still a party and can initiate the process.
In a nutshell, the West ought to refrain from negotiating with the Iranian
leaders or making any deal that could bring financial and political victories
for the theocratic establishment. Such a course of action would only legitimize
the Iranian regime’s aggression and brutality and would isolate Iran’s
protesters. Reimposing the UN sanctions is currently one of the most effective
ways to counter the Iranian regime.
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist.
Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh
Iran May Be Outsourcing Kamikaze Drone Production to
Venezuela
Farzin Nadimi/The Washington Institute/November 17, 2022
Tehran, Caracas, and Moscow have been running a secretive air bridge just as
Iran appears to be surging its transfer of attack drones to Russia, raising
questions about whether these activities are linked.
As the United States considers whether to ease sanctions on Venezuela in order
to boost global oil supplies, officials should take a closer look at potentially
related events across the Atlantic in Ukraine, where Iranian-made Shahed-136
kamikaze drones are regularly buzzing over cities and detonating their
high-explosive payloads on civilian infrastructure. Venezuela has been under
U.S. sanctions for years, in part due to its close ties with the Iranian regime.
Apparently undeterred, President Nicolas Maduro led a high-ranking delegation to
Tehran this summer, resulting in a long-term cooperation agreement that included
the resumption of weekly airline flights between the two capitals in July (the
route had been suspended since 2015, presumably due to foreign pressure).
Although the stated reason for this initiative was to promote tourism,
significant evidence suggests that the flights could also be used to transport
drone materiel and other military hardware.
Conviasa’s Deep Military Involvement with Iran
Venezuela’s state-owned flag carrier Conviasa Airlines is heavily involved in
Iran’s global illicit arms network, operating a joint venture with Mahan Air,
the Iranian carrier that doubles as a logistical arm of the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Among other activities, Mahan has a history of
using civilian passenger flights to transport weapons and ammunition to allies
such as the Assad regime in Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and many of its
flight crews are ex-IRGC pilots. The company has been under U.S. sanctions since
October 2011 for secretly ferrying operatives, weapons, and funds via such
flights on behalf of the IRGC’s Qods Force.
In February 2020, Conviasa and its forty-plane fleet—much of it supplied and
maintained by Mahan—were blacklisted by the U.S. Treasury Department for
supporting the Maduro regime’s destabilizing activities. Yet the airline’s
suspected involvement in Iranian military activity stretches much further back.
As early as 2008, the U.S. Congress and State Department expressed concerns that
Tehran was using Conviasa’s weekly Caracas-Damascus-Tehran flights to transport
missile components to Syria. For example, a La Stampa article published on
December 21, 2008, cited Western intelligence assessments that these flights
were filled with visa-exempt military personnel and sensitive military materiel.
More recently, Mahan helped Conviasa form a cargo subsidiary in November 2021.
Named Emtrasur, it began operations in January 2022 with a single leased Mahan
Air Boeing 747-300B3(M) (current registration number YV3531, formerly EP-MND)
flying out of El Libertador Air Base. The company has functioned as the
strategic airlift arm of Venezuela’s air force, with regular flights to Tehran,
Moscow, and Belgrade. It made headlines this June when its only plane was
detained in Buenos Aires while reportedly hauling car parts. That flight’s
unusually large cockpit crew of nineteen Iranian and Venezuelan nationals
included Gholamreza Ghasemi Abbasi, a retired IRGC Aerospace Force general and
the current managing director of Qeshm Fars Air, another airline that operates
on behalf of the IRGC. Abbasi is known as the mastermind of Iran’s efforts to
arm its proxies using civilian airliners. The crew members detained in the June
incident were recently released, with Emtrasur claiming that the Iranian
contingent had been training the Venezuelans. Yet Washington has asked Caracas
to extradite the plane for further examination.
El Libertador also houses an aviation services factory belong to EANSA, a joint
venture between Conviasa and the state-owned Compania Anonima Venezolana de
Industrias Militares (CAVIM). EANSA maintains drones operated by the Venezuelan
armed forces, including the Iranian Mohajer-2 (known locally as Arpia or
ANSU-100) and the recently unveiled ANSU-200 flying-wing design, which is very
similar to the IRGC’s Shahed-171 and is reportedly under development in
Venezuela using experts trained in Iran. Near El Libertador is a CAVIM arms
factory that oversees the country’s drone program.
Open imageiconPhoto of an Iran-linked drone at a military base in Venezuela.
A partly assembled Mohajer-2/Arpia drone at El Libertador Air
On October 2, after months of suspension due to international sanctions, Moscow
resumed seasonal charter flights to the popular Venezuelan tourist destination
of Margarita Island, relying mainly on Conviasa’s jets given the continued
European restrictions on Russian airlines. Many are concerned that these flights
might also be used as cover for military activities—especially now that Tehran’s
Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA) has been added as an unscheduled
stopover even on supposedly “direct” routes. Indeed, given the increasing pace
of Conviasa flights between Caracas, Tehran, and Moscow, the airline may be
involved in shipping Iranian arms and equipment to Russia (in theory, some of
this equipment may be assembled in Venezuela as well).
According to confidential eyewitnesses, when some Conviasa flights carrying
passengers arrive at IKA, they do not use the normal passenger ramp on the west
side of the airport. Instead, they stop at the cargo ramp on the east side,
where they are met by vehicles that load and offload pallets and containers
under armed IRGC protection.
The uptick in these suspicious flights has coincided with Russia’s increasing
use of Iranian kamikaze drones in Ukraine, suggesting a potential connection. In
all likelihood, Iran’s drone production capacity cannot meet Moscow’s growing
demand, perhaps spurring Tehran to establish a secret production line in
Venezuela for the Shahed-136 or its airframe. Alternatively, such arrangements
could give Tehran plausible deniability for its illegal drone deliveries.
Whatever the case, Conviasa took delivery of two Airbus A340-600 super long-haul
jets from Mahan earlier this year to serve its overseas routes (registration
numbers YV3533, formerly EP-MMF, and YV3535, formerly EP-MMI). The A340-600 has
a range of 14,500 kilometers and can fly directly from Caracas to Moscow (9,900
kilometers) or Tehran (just under 12,000 kilometers). The jet’s normal cargo
capacity is twelve tons—in addition to 308 passengers, it can hold up to
forty-three standard LD3 containers and fourteen pallets. With the seats
removed, it can carry forty extra tons of freight in the passenger cabin. Either
way, it has ample room for transporting drone parts, other weapons, and
ammunition boxes.
For their return leg from Moscow, these flights apparently fill their passenger
seats with Russian tourists bound for Margarita Island, generating substantial
commercial revenue in the process. And by using Conviasa, tour operators can
circumvent international sanctions against Russian aviation, enabling the
flights to pass through European airspace—and make unscheduled stopovers in
Iran.
For example, according to tracking websites such as Flightradar24, YV3535 took
off from Caracas for its Moscow direct route on September 30, but then diverted
to Tehran while switching off its ADS-B tracking system. Conviasa planes have
also made diversions to Tehran after taking off from Moscow, such as YV3533 on
September 18 and YV3535 on October 17, 28, and 30. This practice enables the
flights to avoid appearing on IKA’s scheduled arrivals list.
Notably, after landing in Tehran on September 30, YV3535 loaded up some cargo
but did not take on any new passengers. Two hours later, it took off again for
Moscow’s Vnukovo International Airport. Other flights on this diversionary route
have followed a similar schedule. According to aviation experts familiar with
cargo handling at IKA, two hours is ample time to fill up this aircraft’s hold
with containers or pallets. In this scenario, drone airframe components could be
arriving from Venezuela, while engines and associated parts are then loaded up
in Tehran.
Iran-Venezuela Drone Links
Since mid-September, Russia has been escalating its use of Iranian-made
Shahed-131 and -136 kamikaze drones against Ukraine, adding Kyiv and the
country’s power plants and radar stations to the target list. The Mohajer-6
surveillance and attack drone has been used there as well (e.g., on September
23, Ukrainian forces fished an intact one out of the Black Sea near Odessa). On
October 11, President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Tehran of selling Moscow no
less than 2,400 drones. Whether or not that figure is accurate, the presence of
slow but deadly Shahed drones has become a major concern for Ukraine.
Yet Tehran continues to deflect responsibility for Russia’s widespread use of
these kamikaze drones, flatly denying any deliveries at first, and more recently
admitting some of the transfers but insisting that they took place well before
the Ukraine invasion. Unsurprisingly, even this qualified admission does not add
up—according to Ukrainian sources, the Mohajer-6 recovered near Odessa had been
assembled in February, the same month the war began. Whatever equivocations
Iranian officials may offer going forward, their overriding intent is clear: to
maintain the illusion of “neutrality” in the conflict and avoid incurring
further sanctions pressure. Not coincidentally, this goal would be ably abetted
if Venezuela were acting as a go-between.
Tellingly, Tehran and Caracas were cooperating in the field of unmanned aerial
vehicles for years before the current crisis. In the early 2000s, President Hugo
Chavez counted on Iran’s military assistance to counter what he described as the
“Colombian bourgeoisie and their American allies.” In 2012, he confirmed reports
that an Iranian drone production line had already been established in his
country. A year later, the government unveiled a number of unarmed Mohajer-2
reconnaissance drones, each produced by CAVIM. More recently, they were armed
with four small bombs hung under their wings. U.S. Southern Command watched all
of these developments closely and with some concern.
In November 2020—one month after Washington announced new sanctions against
Venezuela for buying Mohajer drones and other Iranian arms—President Maduro
spoke of plans to expand CAVIM’s domestic drone production efforts, ostensibly
with Iran’s help. In January 2021, the U.S. State Department took major new
steps to “contain Iran’s malign activities” by sanctioning almost the entirety
of the regime’s military industrial sector, citing its track record of supplying
combat drones and other weapons to proxies in the Middle East and elsewhere. The
same designation cited Maduro’s government for participating in such activities.
In February 2013 and again in August 2016, the department sanctioned CAVIM under
the Iran, North Korea, and Syria Nonproliferation Act (INKSNA).
Policy Recommendations
In an effort to curb the spread of Iranian arms to Ukrainian battlefields and
cities, the United States has levied additional sanctions on multiple sectors in
the Islamic Republic:
Drone-related industries
Mahan Air, Pouya Air, Qeshm Fars Air, and Iran Air Cargo, along with their
facilitators in neighboring countries such as the United Arab Emirates
Numerous individual cargo aircraft serving Russia
Washington has also warned that any provision of spare parts or refueling,
maintenance, and repair services to these entities would violate U.S. export
controls and subject the parties to enforcement actions. Yet Tehran seems
undeterred by these restrictions, so more strenuous measures may be needed to
monitor and effectively curtail the Iranian networks that enable weapons
proliferation to Russia—particularly given the likelihood that outside actors
such as Venezuela may be involved.
To begin with, the United States should ask European governments to impose
similar sanctions on the Iranian airlines mentioned above—and on Conviasa if its
involvement in transferring drones and other arms to Russia is proven. In
addition, officials should persuade Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to close their
airspace to direct flights from Tehran to Moscow across the Caspian Sea, thereby
rendering that span of the Venezuela-Iran-Russia air bridge inoperative. To be
sure, the parties may find alternative sea and land routes that cannot be so
easily shut down. Yet such routes can be more readily monitored, and using them
would incur more costs on the states involved.
*Farzin Nadimi is an associate fellow with The Washington Institute,
specializing in security and defense in Iran and the Gulf region. This
PolicyWatch is published in part under the auspices of The Washington
Institute’s Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power
Competition and the Middle East.